Zach Driscoll – McKeen's Hockey

WCHA Playoff Preview: Top three lead division again but championship open to upset

Max Marko — Thu, 07 Mar 2019 13:39:38 +0000

The regular season has concluded for the Western Collegiate Hockey Association and the conference playoffs are on the horizon. Once again, the top three teams in the conference consists of Minnesota State, Northern Michigan and Bowling Green with the trio having somewhat similar seasons to last year.

The preseason favorite to win the conference did not disappoint. Despite some of their talent moving on to the professional level, including CJ Suess (Winnipeg Jets) and Daniel Brickley (LA Kings), Mankato repeats as regular season champions in the WCHA. The Mavericks were a top 10 offense in the country consistently throughout the regular season while only seeming to dip in play when head coach Mike Hastings was absent in order to coach the Americans at the 2019 World Juniors.

Marc Michaelis and Parker Tuomie were dynamic forwards for the Mavs for the second year in a row. The top line duo, along with fellow junior Charlie Gerard, were able to create offense and push hard on the forecheck, seemingly at will against some of the weaker opponents in the conference. Dryden McKay was the top goaltender in the WCHA, leading in goals against average (1.78) and save percentage (.928) and held the best record at 19-6-2.

The Mavericks, after winning the McNaughton Cup for the best regular season in the conference, will have home ice for the entirety of the postseason for as long as they remain in the tournament. Their first-round matchup, the Alabama Huntsville Chargers, shouldn’t be a problem as Mankato swept the Chargers in the regular season series by scores of 6-1 and 4-0.

The Northern Michigan Wildcats carry some momentum into the first round of the WCHA tournament after sweeping their last two regular season series. A team that has been arguably streaky at times this year now holds the hot hand at a perfect time after leapfrogging Bowling Green for the second seed. The success they have found the second half of their season has been due in large part to their upperclassmen.

Troy Loggins certainly tapped into his ability to find open ice during the latter half of the season. His awareness and release have allowed him to score eight goals in his last 10 games. Loggins, a senior, has totaled 22 on the season. Senior goaltender Antte Tolvanen has seen virtually all possible minutes available as the starting netminder for the Wildcats and in return has served as a succor, allowing Loggins, junior defenseman Philip Beaulieu and senior forward Adam Rockwood to take chances moving the puck.

Northern will be taking on Alaska in their first round series and have clinched home ice for the first and second round. Fairbanks is sure to bring them a physical series and the Wildcats need to be willing to match that; however, their lack of depth scoring could be a concern if they make it past the first round and face-off against a quality team in the conference.

After a spectacular out-of-conference first half to the season, the Bowling Green Falcons have been extremely inconsistent during the second half of the season. The Falcons, who swept #12 Western Michigan, beat #7 Ohio State 8-2 and swept #4 Minnesota State, hold a record of 8-6-2 in their last 15. Their once lethal powerplay has also shriveled up as puck movement became routine. Bowling Green still boasts a hungry forecheck and defensive capabilities which should bode well for them in postseason play.

BOWLING GREEN, OH - JANUARY 03: Bowling Green Falcons forward Lukas Craggs (22) and Bemidji State Beavers defenseman Justin Baudry (29) chase after the puck during a regular season WCHA conference hockey game between the Bemidji State Beavers and the Bowling Green Falcons (12) on January 3, 2019 at the Slater Family Ice Arena in Bowling Green, Ohio. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire)

Bowling Green’s offense throughout the year was mostly initiated by Vegas Golden Knights draft pick and sophomore Brandon Kruse. His speed and playmaking opened the ice to permeate scoring chances for sophomore Max Johnson and junior Lukas Craggs. Craggs, a power forward, has been receiving plenty of interest from scouts based on the eye-popping style of play he personifies. He goes all-out on the forecheck with speed and physicality. A pleasant surprise on the blueline has been freshman Will Cullen, a fantastic puck handler that likes to cut down below the hash marks. Had it not been for the terrific play of junior goaltender Ryan Bednard (Florida Panthers), the Falcons’ woes could have turned into sheer panic at times. Bednard sits directly behind Dryden McKay in the WCHA for goals against average (1.80) and save percentage (.923). He is one of the key reasons why BGSU ranks in the top three in the nation in goals against.

Bowling Green will have a rematch of the 2017 WCHA Championship in the first round. The Michigan Tech Huskies come into the Slater Family Ice Arena after they split their regular season series. Since the conference realignment in 2013-2014, the Falcons have played the first round at home each year and are undefeated, but Bowling Green’s inconsistency should worry any Falcon fan headed into the playoffs.

Looking back to the preseason poll, the Lakers were tabbed to finish in the seventh-eighth range. Not only have they surpassed that, but Lake Superior State enters the WCHA tournament ranked 20th in the latest USCHO poll and also took home their program’s first Great Lakes Invitational. The Lakers are scoring at the second highest rate in the conference, as well.

Their rate of scoring can be attributed to their senior class. Diego Cuglietta, who is currently tied for the most goals in the country (23), possesses quick hands and chemistry with linemate Max Humitz. Anthony Nellis and Gage Torrel have also produced quality shifts for the Lakers up front, but on the back end, Colin Saccoman and Steven Ruggiero (Anaheim Ducks) have been able to create plays from their own end and also cut down on angles to get pucks going towards their offensive zone as soon as possible.

Lake Superior State is a tad inexperienced with the WCHA playoff format, only winning one series since realignment, but anything is to be expected this year with this team. They have been able to produce high quality chances and should be evenly matched against a Bemidji State team they split with during the regular season, but will have their sights set on taking down a top three team in the semifinal round.

The Beavers continue their defense-first mindset into their sixth straight WCHA tournament. Bemidji has been as consistent as Mankato and Bowling Green when it comes to shot suppression and shutting plays down in their own end. Michael Bitzer’s departure from the crease left a desire to make sure the pair of sophomores in now net would not need to be relied upon as much as the former WCHA Player of the Year had been.

St. Cloud transfer Zach Driscoll received the majority of minutes in goal, but Henry Johnson was a suitable backup to the Apple Valley native. Sophomore forward Charlie Combs built off his stellar freshman season, returning this year with the added vigor and creativity allowing him to improve his vision. Jay Dickman still remains the towering winger with a strong presence in the slot despite the dip in point production. Defenseman Justin Baudry’s brilliant hockey mind can still put up points from the back end without Zach Whitecloud, as he ranks second in scoring among all defensemen in the WCHA.

The first round series of Lake Superior State and Bemidji State is an interesting one in that one team is a high scoring offense and the other is responsible and can kill penalties. They went back-and-forth in their regular season series which, despite the Beavers’ boring style of play, made for a very entertaining couple of games. The winner of this first round match up could have a legitimate chance at upsetting Northern Michigan (assuming that the latter moves on to the next round).

It has been a consistent decline for the Michigan Tech Huskies in the regular season standings for the past four to five years; however, they still manage to catch fire come postseason time. This year, there has been a large drop off in offensive production. Joel L’Esperance and Mitch Reinke have both moved on to bigger and better things in the American Hockey League, and with their departure there is a lack of ingenuity in the lineup. There is still some confidence in their game from time to time when going toe to toe with their better opponents, which should help in their quest for a third straight Jeff Sauer Championship.

Every returnee on the roster took a hit in the point production department this year, including Jake Lucchini who was unable to crack the 10 goal mark in the regular season. Freshman Brian Halonen was one of the better freshmen in the conference in the regular season and led first year players in goals with 12.

An uphill battle is a familiar scenario for the Huskies considering their seeding last season before they went on to win the WCHA and advance to the NCAA tournament. This year they will have to go through Bowling Green in the first round which could benefit them based on the Falcons struggles towards the second half of the season. Past that will most likely be Northern Michigan, who really cleaned the Huskies’ clock during the regular season.

Some shocking wins, but mostly consistent losses landed Fairbanks in the seventh seed this year under first year head coach Erik Largen. They were clumped together with Alabama Huntsville and Alaska Anchorage throughout the season when it comes to goal output and team defense. Physicality and aggression brought them some wins against quality opponents like Minnesota State and Bowling Green, but lack of depth and composure in the defensive zone are the themes that will most likely carry into the playoffs for them.

Defenseman Tristan Thompson is a quick, agile and smart defenseman that has been one of the few positives for the Nanooks this year. Steven Jandric generates almost all of Alaska’s offense and has juniors Kyler Hope and Colton Leiter to help along the way.

The Northern Michigan Wildcats are in for a tough opening series, but most likely a quick one. The Nanooks don’t nearly have the firepower to keep up in an elimination scenario unless Anton Martinsson can steal a game or two for them.

The Chargers were due for some offensive regression after three of their top five scorers from the 2017-2018 season left the program. They handled the loss for the most part and were able to clinch the eighth seed on the last weekend of the regular season.

A couple of newcomers in Jack Jeffers and Bauer Neudecker have offered size and speed, respectively. Senior Hans Gorowsky supports the two underclassmen with his 12 goals and power in the faceoff circle.

A very daunting task awaits the Chargers in the first round of the WCHA tournament in Minnesota State. Mankato has threats up and down the lineup while Huntsville doesn’t have anyone on the roster above the 20-point mark. Alabama will be lucky to create sustained offense or even solve Dryden McKay let alone come away with a victory.

As for Ferris State and Alaska Anchorage, their seasons have ended as they failed to find a spot in the WCHA postseason. The Seawolves of Anchorage only won two games all year and the Bulldogs missed out on the tournament despite putting up offensive stats that would normally qualify them for the playoffs.

Ferris unmistakably had problems keeping the puck out of their net all year long. Freshman goaltender Roni Salmenkangas struggled through-and-through, but he was not helped by his defensive core as many would miss assignments and continue to have lapses in coverage. On-ice performance for Anchorage could, reportedly, be the least of their concerns as a new state budget could mean cuts to the athletic, and potentially hockey, programs of both Alaska Anchorage and Alaska Fairbanks.

While the WCHA is not a powerhouse of a conference, there are some individuals and storylines that are thrilling to watch and the postseason intensifies that to another degree. Teams like Bowling Green or Lake Superior State are fighting for a chance to make it to the NCAA tournament, while Minnesota State is a for sure lock for an at-large bid regardless of their outcome in the conference tournament. Either way, the intimacy of the conference makes for some series filled with enmity.

Tournament Predictions

#1 Minnesota State Mavericks (27-7-2) vs #8 Alabama Huntsville Chargers (8-26-2)

Mankato shouldn’t have a problem with Huntsville. Led by Dryden McKay in net and Marc Michaelis up front, the Mavericks boast the best center depth in the league which should tear apart the Chargers’ defense.

Prediction: Minnesota State advances (2-0 sweep)

#2 Northern Michigan Wildcats (19-14-2) vs #7 Alaska Nanooks (12-19-3)

The Wildcats leapt up to the second seed after a strong final regular season series and look to return to the WCHA Championship. Fairbanks, while lacking a strong offense, is looking to lower the boom and out-muscle Northern into the second round. Adam Rockwood and Troy Loggins are poised for stellar playoff performances and have a cozy matchup with Alaska to breakout.

Prediction: Northern Michigan advances (2-0 sweep)

#3 Bowling Green Falcons (21-9-5) vs #6 Michigan Tech Huskies (14-18-4)

Bowling Green sputtered out of the regular season after some inconsistency in poise and execution. Michigan Tech has also struggled to put the puck in the net, but usually can play toe-to-toe with the Falcons. This series could potentially be one of the closer ones in the first round, but it feels as though Bowling Green is on the brink of a major breakout and they can usually play in big time situations.

Prediction: Bowling Green advances (2-1)

#4 Lake Superior State Lakers (21-11-2) vs #5 Bemidji State Beavers (15-15-6)

Bemidji State looks to slow down the surprisingly red-hot Lake State offense, and they may have the defensive minded gameplan to do it. The Beavers are a shutdown team that has done a great job all year long with snuffing out scoring chances in their own end; however, they may have trouble capitalizing on mistakes made by the Lakers, they could see themselves in a hole early. If Lake State can grab the pace of play from the opening faceoff of game one, they will sail away with the series.

Prediction: Lake Superior State advances (2-1 sweep)

Second Round

#1 Minnesota State Mavericks vs #4 Lake Superior State Lakers

The Lakers were able to solve the Mavericks in the regular season on their last attempt, but it wasn’t pretty. Lake State could only muster up 11 shots in a 1-0 victory. Mankato attacked early and controlled the tempo throughout. The Mavericks seem to stumble in the latter half of the WCHA tournament, especially in recent years not being able to get past the semifinals. With a NCAA tournament bid all but locked up, Minnesota State’s confidence and status just might get the best of them.

Prediction: Lake Superior State advances (2-1)

#2 Northern Michigan Wildcats vs #3 Bowling Green Falcons

A rematch of last year’s WCHA semifinal only this time the Falcons have the advantage in overall record. Bowling Green will be headed back to Marquette in a matchup that may come down to Ryan Bednard and Atte Tolvanen in between the pipes. Bednard, who may be playing his last season with the Falcons, has been strong all year long, but if Tolvanen catches fire he could steal the series.

Prediction: Northern Michigan advances (2-1)

Finals

#2 Northern Michigan Wildcats vs #4 Lake Superior State Lakers

Predicting this final round in the preseason might have been crazy, but the Lakers have held steady all year. Their hot streak has turned into solid year offensively and going up against the Wildcats could be a tough task, but one they can certainly overcome. It is always hard to predict just one game and that's exactly what the WCHA Championship is, but it feels like there could be a very entertaining thriller at hand here.

Prediction: Lake Superior State Lakers win the WCHA Championship.

USHL Playoff Preview: New format, wild results

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 20 Apr 2018 20:21:45 +0000

Looking to add more drama to its postseason, this season is the first in which the USHL has extended the playoffs through the addition of a best-of-three wildcard round, adding two teams to the festivities from each conference. Whereas the league had previously included only the top four from each conference in the playoffs, this year, the fifth and sixth teams received an extra chance as well.

The new setup sees the top two teams from each conference receive a bye week while the third through sixth teams played up to three games in three nights, all at the home arena of the higher ranked squad.

Perhaps in opposition to expectations, the wild card round saw three upsets in its four series. In the Eastern conference, third seed Muskegon fell in three games to sixth seed and defending champions, Chicago, a series capped by a game three overtime winner. Meanwhile, the fifth seed, Dubuque, won the first two games in Green Bay, negating the need for a winner-take-all finale.

In the Western Conference, third seed Fargo eliminated sixth seed Tri-City in short order, winning their two games by a combined score of 8-1. Fourth seed Sioux Falls feel to fifth seed Lincoln in three games. Like with the Muskegon-Chicago series, the home team won the first game, before dropping the next two, with the finale going to overtime.

The Conference semifinals begin tonight (Friday, April 20, 2018) with Youngstown hosting Dubuque, with the other three series beginning tomorrow evening.

Eastern Conference

Team USA (1) vs Chicago Steel (6)

This matchup may not be the mismatch the seeds suggest that it is. During the regular season, Team USA’s league games are effectively split between the USNTDP U17 and U18 squads. This arrangement was great for development, but usually pretty bad for the standings. Since rejoining the USHL in 2009-10, the USNTDP split team has only reached the postseason twice, and not since the 2011—12 season. Of the players who led this team during the regular season. Most of the top contributors will be unavailable for the postseason, as the bulk of the U18 squad, and some of the better U17 players, are currently in Russia representing flag and country at the World Under 18 Championships.

The leftover players are still very talented on the whole, but lacking in high impact. The players most likely to push the USNTDP onward are 2019 draft prospects Ryder Rolston, Matthew Boldy, and Trevor Zegras up front, and Henry Thrun from the blueline. All three forwards were point per game players in the regular season and are potential high end prospects for next year.

Jack Dugan, photo by Hickling Images.

The Steel are led by one of the top drafted prospects in the league in Jack Dugan, a Vegas pick and one of the best non USNTDP draft prospects for this year in Blake McLaughlin. The two made up two-thirds of a great top line over the first half of the season, but were split up around mid-season after a coach firing reminiscent of what took place in Flint of the OHL last year. They also have a very promising 2019 prospect of their own in Robert Mastrosimone. Steel games have been high event games this year. Only the USNTDP has scored more and no other playoff team (including the ousted wild-card entrants) have surrendered more. That said, if they stick with Finnish import Oskar Autio in net, they have a very good chance of getting to the conference finals.

Blake McLaughlin.

Draft eligible players to watch: For Chicago, pay attention to Blake McLaughlin. After exploding in the first half of the season, his production slowed measurably in the second half, but he scored twice in the wild card round. He is a dark horse pick in the late first round or early second round. For the US squad, Erik Middendorf is one of a select few who were not taken to Russia for the WU18 tournament. He is a decent two-way player who can skate. The Colorado College commit could be taken in the seventh round if he shows some offensive punch here.

Prediction: As they played Autio throughout the wild card round, I expect the status quo to remain for the best of five here. Chicago in five.

Youngstown Phantoms (2) vs Dubuque Fighting Saints (5)

Representing Exhibit A in why the Western Conference was the stronger one this year, both combatants here surrendered more goals than they scored this year, not something you would expect from a playoff team, much less the second seed from the East. Both teams have veteran rosters, with Dubuque bringing more size, although Youngstown plays a rougher game. The Phantoms somewhat make up for the time they spend in the penalty box by having a fairly strong penalty kill. Dubuque has been much more mediocre when it comes to special teams this year.

Alex Steeves

The Fighting Saints could have been much stronger this year, as their rosters includes three players drafted by NHL teams in Casey Staum (Mtl), Cole Guttman (TB) and Santeri Virtanen (Wpg). Unfortunately, injuries have meant that Dubuque has spent the majority of the season without any of the three and are not expected to have those players now either. Their offensive attack will be spearheaded by forwards Quinn Preston and Alex Steeves, the latter of whom is draft eligible. Joshua Maniscalco, a former USNTDP member, has been very productive from the blueline as well. Their goaltending looks to be a weakspot, despite Cole Weaver’s great work in shutting down Green Bay in the Wild Card round.

The Phantoms have more offensive weapons at their disposal, including Matthew Berry, Chase Gresock, and Michael Regush. They lack much offensive punch from their defensive corps, although midseason acquisition Michael Callahan has provided solid puck movement. The teams’ biggest strength, however comes from their stoppers. They likely expected to have Chicago draft pick Wouter Peeters claim the starters job this year – and he has been pretty good - but Russian import Ivan Prosvetov has been even better. No matter which netminder they choose for the playoffs, they will have a clear edge over Dubuque in the crease.

Curtis Hall. Photo by Hickling Images/courtesy of the USHL.

Draft eligible players to watch: From Dubuque, it can only be Alexander Steeves. The Notre Dame commit has a big engine and real offensive juice. The team’s leading scorer (seventh league-wide) always wants the puck on his stick and knows what to do when he gets it. From Youngstown, the pre-season pick would have been Curtis Hall, but he has shown that his lack of puck skill severely limits his upside. My personal favorite here is the goalie Prosvetov, who can absolutely dominate at his best. But he may not get the nod as Peeters is also very good. So I will pick Michael Callahan. He is not an exciting prospect, but the Providence commit does a lot of things quietly well.

Prediction: Youngstown in four. Between the top notch goaltending and the more diverse offensive attack, they will be tough to beat, especially under the assumption that Dubuque continues to play shorthanded.

Western Conference

Waterloo Black Hawks (1) vs Lincoln Stars (5)

The Waterloo-Lincoln series should be closer than the two teams’ relative place in the USHL standings would suggest. They both scored a hair under 200 goals on the season, although Waterloo has a team-level GAA of around 0.25 better. A factor that should play a role here is special teams play. Both teams are strong on the penalty kill, with Lincoln’s 84.7% kill rate coming second in the USHL. Waterloo, at 83.8% was not far behind. On the power play, however, the Black Hawks more than make up for the shortcoming when down a man. They had the league’s second best man advantage, scoring 23.6% of the time. Lincoln could only convert on 15.6% of their power plays.

That Waterloo power play was a result of some strong offensive talent. Draft eligible Jack Drury is by far the league’s top power play producer with 12 goals and 22 assists coming on the man advantage. The team captain sees the ice well and knows how to take advantage of the extra space a power play brings. Speedy Ben Copeland, veteran Jackson Cates and midseason addition Benjamin Finkelstein (Fla) make them hard to stop.

The goalie battle is also strong here. Both teams feature drafted goalies, on the roster with Matej Tomek (Phi) playing for Waterloo and Tomas Vomacka (Nsh) for Lincoln, but there is no guarantee that either of the latter get the nod. In the wild-card round, the Stars went with normal backup Derek Schaedig, after a rough outing in game one by Vomacka. The Black Hawks also have Jared Moe, one of the better draft eligible goalies in the league pushing Tomek for playing time.

Paul Cotter

Draft Eligible Players to Watch: From Waterloo, pay attention to Drury. His offensive output has been fantastic and has the requisite hockey IQ expected from a legacy player (Son of Ted Drury) and Harvard commit. The question hanging over his prospect value is whether he can produce enough at even strength. From Lincoln, keep an eye on Paul Cotter, who scored the overtime winner in game 3 of the wild card round. He is a good skater with a nice shot and outstanding questions about his upside.

Prediction: Waterloo in four. Lincoln is the most penalized team in the league, with a gap of 129 minutes between them and the runners-up. That will really hurt them as the Black Hawks can take advantage, and will take advantage, over and over again, presuming Lincoln continues to play their brand of hockey.

Omaha Lancers (2) vs Fargo Force (3)

This series promises to be the exact inverse of the above-discussed matchup of Team USA and the Chicago Steel. While the other series should be full of end-to-end rushes, and blaring goal sirens, Omaha vs Fargo is a matchup of the two stingiest teams in the league. Fargo surrendered 133 goals on the season, while Omaha allowed only 143. Both teams enter hot, with Fargo having won five in a row and nine of ten, while Omaha is riding an eight game winning streak.

The goaltending on both sides is stellar. The expected starter for Omaha, Zach Driscoll, finished second in the league with a .934 save percentage. Fargo’s Strauss Mann came in third, at .932. Should, for any reason, either team need to turn to its backup, Fargo’s Ryan Bischel came in fifth in save percentage and Omaha’s Vincent Purpura finished eighth. Omaha’s offensive attack is led by undersized Czech veteran Filip Suchy, who came in second in league scoring with 69 points. Noah Cates (Phi) and Cole Gallant also both finished with over 50 points. Cates, in particular, is a talented player of the puck. Fargo only had one 50 point scoring in Grant Hebert, but Danish import Jacob Schmidt-Svejstrup would have also reached that plateau were it not for time missed for the WJC and a subsequent injury. Fargo also has a number of defensemen who can contribute to the attack, including Ty Farmer, Spencer Meir, and Robbie Stucker (Clb).

Both teams are good on the PK, sharing identical 83.5% kill rate. On the power play, we see some separation. Omaha was very good this year, scoring on 19% of their man up opportunities. Fargo, on the other hand, put everyone to shame, with a USHL high 24.5% power play success rate. Neither team is overly penalty prone, though, so this element may be diminished in significance during this series.

Draft Eligible Players to Watch: Fargo has an older roster on the whole, without any first time eligible players of note. That said, 20 year old Danish winger Schmidt-Svejstrup turned a lot of heads with his goal scoring exploits at the beginning of the season. He lacks pace and likes to fly the zone early, but he knows how to get himself into scoring position. He finished the season with 26 goals in 40 games. On Omaha, Ryan Savage had the most pre-season hype, but has been largely disappointing. Defenseman Travis Mitchell plays a muscular, disruptive style on the blueline, and could be a late round pick, but the real player to watch is left winger Jack Randl. The Michigan commit has promising offensive touch and will be relied upon in the second wave of attack for the Lancers.

Prediction: This is the closest matchup of the round. Omaha wins in five, thanks to better offensive depth. Lots of close, one goal (or two, with the latter being an empty netter) decisions.

Should the first round proper prediction play out, the Conference finals will pit Waterloo against Omaha in the West and Youngstown against Chicago in the East. In that scenario, I see Omaha shutting down Waterloo and Youngstown outscoring Chicago to set up a Clark Cup matchup between Omaha and Youngstown. In this battle of second seeds, Omaha proves the old adage that “defense wins championships” and brings home their eighth Clark Cup championship, and their first since 2007-08.