Austin Czarnik – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Early Standouts – Significant early injuries – Who benefits from opportunity

Scott Cullen — Fri, 20 Oct 2023 22:14:31 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 14: Ottawa Senators Right Wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) after a whistle during second period National Hockey League action between the Philadelphia Flyers and Ottawa Senators on October 14, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, a look at a new Panthers winger plus lots of early injuries including to significant players like Sebastian Aho, Gabriel Vilardi, Kirby Dach, Viktor Arvidsson, Matthew Boldy, Pavel Buchnevich, and more. That means new opportunities for others looking for a bigger role.

#1 In the past couple of seasons, Evan Rodrigues has proven to be a premier shot generator who could thrive in a supporting offensive role. In those two seasons – one with Pittsburgh and one with Colorado – he put up 82 points (35 G, 47 A) in 151 games while generating 2.85 shots on goal per game. That was something of a late breakthrough for the now 30-year-old forward who is looking at an even better opportunity this season in Florida. Rodrigues has opened the season skating on Aleksander Barkov’s wing and is averaging 18:54 time on ice per game, which would be a career high, on the way to producing five points (2 G, 3 A) and 17 shots on goal in his first four games. It is obviously a very small sample, but Rodrigues has the underlying numbers to make his production more sustainable. For a player that has never had 20 goals and 50 points in an NHL season, Rodrigues should be looking to exceed those numbers this season.

#2 Entering the season, there did not seem to be a lot of buzz surrounding new Ottawa Senators right winger Vladimir Tarasenko, a six-time 30-goal scorer who signed with the club as a free agent. The veteran winger has opened his Sens tenure with six points (2 G, 4 A) in four games, but that doesn’t alleviate the concerns about him entirely, either. He is averaging just 13:38 of ice time per game, which would be his lowest since his rookie season in 2012-2013, and he only has six shots on goal through four games. Although Tarasenko has been skating with rookie Ridly Greig at center, with Josh Norris returning to the Senators lineup, that could eventually help Tarasenko get more offensive opportunities, but the ice time and shot rate bear watching.

#3 It is not easy for Ottawa Senators defenceman Jake Sanderson to get power play time on a team with Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun already, which is not to say that it never happens, only that he ranks second among Sens defencemen in five-on-four ice time behind Chabot. Even so, Sanderson is off to a stellar start, producing five points (2 G, 3 A) in four games. He only has five shots on goal, which is not encouraging, but Sanderson is going to get quality ice time, even if he is not always going to be quarterbacking Ottawa’s top power play unit.

#4 A lot was made of the decline in performance last season from Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Victor Hedman, but it might be premature to start the 32-year-old blueliner into a heavy decline phase of his career. Hedman has contributed five points (1 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal through five games, which is a promising start, but the Lightning have been getting outshot with Hedman on the ice (46.2 CF%), too, and that hasn’t happened for more than a decade.

#5 Carolina Hurricanes centre Sebastian Aho has been out for a couple of games and while his injury is thought to be a day-to-day thing, his absence is still felt. Through a couple of games, the Hurricanes were getting 79.1% of expected goals with Aho on the ice during five-on-five play, In Aho’s absence, Teuvo Teravainen has moved into the first line centre role and Teravainen has scored four goals in five games to start the season. Additionally, the Hurricanes have better depth down the middle as Jesperi Kotkaniemi continues to develop. The 23-year-old has started his sixth NHL season with five points (2 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in five games, averaging a career-high 15:51 of ice time per game.

#6 In a move that didn’t make a huge offseason splash, the Detroit Red Wings brought in puck-moving defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere. While he does not have a huge role, averaging 18:53 of ice time per game, Gostisbehere is getting first unit power play time alongside Moritz Seider and Gostisbehere already has four points (1 G, 3 A) in four games with the Red Wings controlling play (53.2 CF%) in Gostisbehere’s five-on-five minutes.

#7 Toronto Maple Leafs centre Auston Matthews is the early leader in all-situations expected goals (3.76), ahead of Matthew Tkachuk (3.23), Connor Bedard (3.10), Artturi Lehkonen (2.85), Filip Forsberg (2.74), and Jack Eichel (2.64). Bedard is obviously playing a lot for Chicago and creating chances, but they have yet to materialize into goals. For a player who enters the league with a legendary release, Bedard’s ability to generate high-quality shots bodes well for his future production. It’s also encouraging to see Eichel playing at such a high level. He had an outstanding playoff, but it appears in the early going that Eichel is going to continue at an elite level. He leads the NHL with 28 shots on goal in five games, though Nathan MacKinnon (27) and Auston Matthews (26) are close behind while playing just four games.

#8 Winnipeg Jets RW Gabriel Vilardi is out for four-to-six weeks with a sprained MCL, which is a tough situation for a player who was averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game through two games. Vilardi was also rocking a 73.3 CF%, but now the Jets will need to find someone to fill those minutes. It looks like Mason Appleton will get first crack alongside Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele and that is a big opportunity for a 27-year-old who scored a career-high 25 points (12 G, 13 A) in 56 games in 2020-2021.

#9 Montreal lost centre Kirby Dach to a torn ACL, ending the 22-year-old’s season prematurely. He had two assists and 70.4 CF% in two games before getting hurt. Alex Newhook will slide into the middle of the ice to fill the hole created by Dach’s absence, while Tanner Pearson will move up the depth chart to take Newhook’s spot on left wing. Pearson, who played just 14 games last season, has two goals in three games to start his Habs career.

#10 On the Florida Panthers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final last season, Sam Bennett was an impact player at centre, between Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk. Bennett has yet to play this season because of a lower-body injury, so Eetu Luostarinen is getting that opportunity. Unfortunately, he has yet to record a point and has just one shot on goal in four games. That is not making the most of the situation.

#11 Los Angeles Kings winger Viktor Arvidsson has been an excellent and sometimes underrated contributor, but he is out long term after undergoing back surgery, which means new opportunities on the right side in Los Angeles. Arthur Kaliyev is skating in Arvidsson’s typical spot, alongside Phillip Danault and Trevor Moore, while rookie Alexis Laferriere has landed a prime spot on the wing with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Kevin Fiala. Kaliyev may have the higher upside as a scorer, as he has shown a strong ability to generate shots, even in limited ice time. Arvidsson’s injury should help ensure that Kaliyev sees a good jump in ice time this season, opening the door for a breakout season.

#12 Injuries have hit the Minnesota Wild hard early in the season. Rising star winger Matthew Boldy and defencemen Jared Spurgeon and Alex Goligoski are all out of action for Minnesota and they are not easily replaced. Taking Boldy’s spot is Samuel Walker, a 24-year-old who has two points (1 G, 1 A) in 10 career NHL games and did not have any points in two AHL games this season, but he did produce 48 points (27 G, 21 A) in 56 AHL games last season, so this is a real chance to Walker to show his stuff at the NHL level. Spurgeon’s absence also gives Calen Addison the role of first unit power play quarterback, which is an area in which the young defenceman has excelled, with 18 of his 29 points last season coming with the man advantage.

#13 While fourth lines are not going to bring big fantasy appeal, it’s worth noting what is happening in Detroit, where Christian Fischer (83.7 xGF%) and Klim Kostin (80.2 xGF%) are dominating play to a ridiculous degree. Austin Czarnik has played only two games, but Detroit has controlled 86.3% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Czarnik on the ice.

#14 Staying in Detroit, veteran winger Robby Fabbri made it through one game before suffering another injury and Fabbri’s injury presents an opportunity for Michael Rasmussen to climb up the depth chart. Rasmussen had a career-high 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 56 games last season, but his average ice time has increased by more than a minute per game in the early going this season and he has a couple of points (1 G, 1 A) in four games.

#15 Although he can get overshadowed by the top two centres on the Devils roster, Erik Haula’s upper body injury is notable for a team that thrives on its depth. With Haula out, Michael McLeod moves from the fourth line centre to third line centre and while McLeod has established that he is a solid fourth liner, his offensive production has kept him in that role. He has just 10 goals in 157 games over the past two seasons, so if McLeod is ever going to shake his fourth-line label, he will need to take advantage when he gets the chance to play in the top nine.

#16 Expectations were already very low for the San Jose Sharks coming into the season, but it has been made even more difficult with veteran centres Mikael Granlund and Logan Couture out of the lineup. Rookie Thomas Bordeleau and veteran Luke Kunin are handling the middle six centre roles for the Sharks. Bordeleau has managed one goal and five shots on goal through four games while he has been caved in when it comes to puck possession (31.1 CF%). Kunin has yet to record a point and is not much better at driving play (33.0 CF%). This should come as little surprise, but it reveals how much of an uphill fight it is for San Jose right now.

#17 St. Louis Blues winger Pavel Buchnevich suffered an upper-body injury when crushed into the boards by Seattle Kraken defenceman Jamie Oleksiak, and while Buchnevich has been out, the opportunity has fallen to 21-year-old Jake Neighbours, who has managed zero points and two shots on goal in three games this season. A chance to play in St. Louis’ top six is not bad, but it is up to Neighbours to show that he deserves to stay in a significant role over the long term.

#18 It is still super early, but there are some forwards raising red flags with their early struggles. Timo Meier was benched for the third period against Florida and has zero points and four shots on goal in three games. Meier has always been able to generate shots, so that is a notable concern with his game in New Jersey, but he really should be able to figure it out.

#19 When he returned to action last season following hip resurfacing surgery, Washington Capitals centre Nicklas Backstrom struggled, to a degree that he never really had in the NHL before. With a fresh start this season, 35-year-old Backstrom is still struggling to find his way. He has zero points in three games and is averaging 15:45 of ice time per game, which would be the lowest rate of his career. Backstrom is still getting top unit power play time but is skating between Sonny Milano and Tom Wilson at even strength, so he is not nearly the dangerous scoring threat that he was during his prime.

#20 After getting bought out by the Winnipeg Jets, 37-year-old right winger Blake Wheeler landed with the New York Rangers. Through four games with the Blueshirts, not only does Wheeler not have any points, but he is playing just 12:26 per game, which would be the lowest time on ice of his career. He is skating on a line with centre Vincent Trocheck and rookie left winger Will Cuylle. While Wheeler’s all-around game has declined in recent seasons, he still produced 55 points (16 G, 39 A) last season and early returns suggest that he will not be continuing at that level this season.

Under the Radar Fantasy All-Star Team

Scott Cullen — Mon, 17 Sep 2018 19:29:20 +0000

The name of the game, when it comes to fantasy hockey, is to derive the best possible value from your draft picks.

Value can come in many forms. Maybe it’s just getting the expected performance out of a blue-chip player, and at the end of the year you can say thank you to Connor McDavid or Sidney Crosby for being great. It can also be about getting a player with no expectations that turns out to be productive enough to contribute to your squad’s fantasy success.

As billionaire investor Warren Buffett said, “The price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

That means that every round, when you make your pick, that is the price you pay for that given player. The way to extract relative value on draft day, though, is to get players that will perform better than their draft slot.

There are a number of reasons why a player might be a good candidate to provide favourable value, maybe the most notable of which is that they are coming off a season of poor percentages, either related to their own shooting percentage or their 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage (which measures the finishing ability of their linemates). If either of those percentages were well off a skater’s career norms, then there is a pretty good chance that those numbers will bounce back, leading to better goal and point production in the following season.

Another factor to consider when it comes to value is perception. If a player has a high profile and receives lots of publicity, it’s going to be more difficult to sneak that pick past anyone. To that end, once players start showing up on every value picks list, they may already start to lose some of their potential value because they are no longer sitting quite so far under the radar.

Nevertheless, here are some players to consider as value plays on draft day, including some high-end players who might be even better their reputations and working down to some late-round sleeper candidates.

FORWARDS

Brad Marchand

Brad Marchand, Boston – This isn’t to suggest that you won’t have to invest a high pick in the Boston super-pest, but he will be worth it. Over the past three seasons, Marchand has scored 110 goals, ranking behind only Alex Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko. Over the past two seasons, thanks to an increased role on the Boston power play, Marchand has 170 points, which is tied for fourth in the league. He’s a vital cog on the league’s best line, with Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, so don’t be afraid of paying retail prices for Marchand’s production.

Tyler Seguin, Dallas – Over the past five seasons he’s tied for sixth in the league in points (384) and only Alex Ovechkin has scored more goals than Seguin’s 173. He scored a career-high 40 goals last season while playing a career-high 20:55 per game, and while a new coach may not give him all of that ice time (though he might), it’s also entirely possible that Jim Montgomery will have the Stars playing a more up-tempo pace than they did under Ken Hitchcock.

Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis – By no means is it guaranteed that O’Reilly will find himself centering super sniper Vladimir Tarasenko, but it would seem to be a good fit since O’Reilly is both a defensive stalwart, a strong playmaker, and he’s coming off a season in which he finished with 61 points, the second highest total of his career, even though he had a career-low on-ice shooting percentage of 6.0%. Playing with an elite talent like Tarasenko could bring out his best.

Sam Reinhart, Buffalo – Even though second overall pick in the 2014 Draft finished with a career-high 50 points last season, Reinhart started the year with just 11 points in his first 38 games and he had an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.9% for the whole season. If he carries his second half production into a full year, with an improved Sabres team, the 22-year-old’s numbers should keep climbing.

Travis Konecny, Philadelphia – After Christmas, the 21-year-old winger scored 20 goals and 37 points in 45 games, performing at high level down the stretch while skating with Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier on Philadelphia’s top line. He also finished second on the team with 2.26 points/60 during 5-on-5 play, scoring 44 of his 47 points at even strength.

Nino Niederreiter, Minnesota – A power forward possession beast who managed 32 points in an injury-plagued 2017-2018 season, Niederreiter had a career-high 57 points in 2016-2017. Coming off that down season, he should cost less to acquire, but that leads to a potential value gain if he gets back on track.

Alex Galchenyuk

Alex Galchenyuk, Arizona – A fresh start with a team that might offer more opportunity is a good reason to have higher hopes for Galchenyuk, because there is an argument to be made that he was not handled particularly well in Montreal, but it’s also worth noting that any scoring forward who had a 5.1% on-ice shooting percentage last season is likely to see more favourable percentages in the next season.

Jonathan Drouin, Montreal – His first season with the Canadiens didn’t necessarily go as planned, and it’s fair to wonder whether Drouin is going to make it long-term as a centre, but the percentages weren’t on his side either, as he scored on 7.9% of his shots and had a 5.6% on-ice shooting percentage. The third pick in the 2013 Draft had a good finish last season, scoring 13 points in his last 14 games and, given his prominent role on the team, Drouin will have every opportunity to produce offensively.

Pavel Buchnevich, N.Y. Rangers – A new coaching staff and a team committed to rebuilding could present more consistent top-six opportunities for the talented 23-year-old winger, who had a respectable 43 points last season, but managed just one goal in his last 22 games and that could help make him somewhat easier to acquire on draft day.

Ondrej Kase, Anaheim – The 22-year-old winger flashed some potential in 2016-2017 and tallied 20 goals and 38 points in 66 games last season, when he led Ducks regulars in goals, points and primary points per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. He has spent quite a bit of time alongside Ryan Getzlaf on the top line, and that makes life easier for any scoring winger.

Alex Tuch, Vegas – James Neal’s departure has opened up a second-line spot for Tuch, who showed a lot of potential as a rookie, and that second-line opening comes with the benefit of a chance to skate alongside veteran playmaking centre Paul Stastny. That’s a good set up for Tuch, who offers a rare combination of size and speed, to build on last season’s production.

Jack Roslovic, Winnipeg – With Paul Stastny leaving, there is a great opportunity for the second-year centre to step into a role on a scoring line. If it turns out that Roslovic is a plug-and-play replacement for Stastny between Nikolaj Ehlers and Patrik Laine, well, that’s the dream scenario that makes it worth grabbing Roslovic and hoping that he is ready to handle that responsibility.

Andre Burakovsky, Washington – Four years into his NHL career, we’re still waiting on a breakout season, but the 23-year-old’s goal and points per 60 numbers are among the best on the Capitals. It’s worth grabbing him late if only to find out what might happen if he plays at least 65 games, something that he’s done once in four years.

Austin Czarnik, Calgary – A 25-year-old who has 17 points in 59 career NHL games is likely to be available for a late-round flier, and Czarnik is worth consideration at that price because he has tallied 155 points in 157 American Hockey League games and joins a Flames team that offers an opportunity to play significant minutes. After Yanni Gourde’s success in Tampa Bay last season, Czarnik is a player with a similar pedigree as a minor-league scorer, looking for his chance to shine in the NHL.

DEFENCE

Brent Burns

Brent Burns, San Jose – You won’t get him cheaply, but the 33-year-old freewheeling blueliner still offers massive value at a relatively early draft slot. Even though he managed 12 goals last season, Burns scored on just 3.6% of his shots, his lowest rate since 2009-2010, and his on-ice shooting percentage (6.2%) was his lowest in the advanced stats era (ie. since 2007-2008). Over the past three seasons, Burns leads all defencemen in goals (68), points (218) and, by a mile, shots on goal (1005).

Oscar Klefbom, Edmonton – He plummeted from a dozen goals and 38 points in 2016-2017 to just five goals and 21 points last season, but Klefbom was limited by a bad shoulder that ultimately ended his season early. A healthy Klefbom remains the best power-play quarterback on the Edmonton blueline and, provided that he’s not hindered by the shoulder issue, Klefbom should be in line for a rebound season.

Thomas Chabot, Ottawa – The 2015 first-round pick was kept under wraps early in his rookie season, but started to play a lot more in the second half of the season and he performed well. As it was, he still finished with 25 points in 63 games, so those numbers could shoot up if he starts playing 20-minutes plus every night for a full season.

Duncan Keith

Duncan Keith, Chicago – To be fair, no one is going to consider Keith a genuine sleeper. Everyone is well aware of a 34-year-old who has won two Norris Trophies and been a No. 1 defenceman on three Stanley Cup winners, but he’s coming off an especially poor year. Part of how those poor results were achieved, though, was through abysmal percentages. He scored two goals on 187 shots (1.1 SH%) and his 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage (5.7%) was a career-low, too. If absolutely nothing else changes and the percentages move back towards his career norms, Keith’s results will be noticeably better.

Kevin Shattenkirk, N.Y. Rangers – A prize free agent signing in the summer of 2017, the veteran blueliner missed nearly half of the season due to injury, but remains one of the best power play quarterbacks in the game. Even on a rebuilding Rangers team there will be points to be had with the man advantage.

Samuel Girard, Colorado – The heady, smallish, puck-moving blueliner scored more than half of his points on the power play during his rookie campaign, earning a bigger role as the season progressed, and the 20-year-old should continue his upward career trajectory in his second season.

GOALTENDERS

Braden Holtby, Washington – Last season was clearly the worst of Holtby’s career, and he even lost the starting job going down the stretch and into the playoffs, so of course that was the season in which he backstopped the Capitals to the Stanley Cup. Given his impressive track record, though, it’s still worth investing in Holtby as a star goaltender. With Philipp Grubauer moving on, Holtby’s hold on the No. 1 job should be even more secure.

Antti Raanta

Antti Raanta, Arizona – He doesn’t have the reputation of other starting goaltenders, in part because last season was the first time that he played more than 40 games in a season, and injuries still limited him to 47 appearances. Raanta is also playing behind a Coyotes team that wants to be more competitive, but they haven’t made the playoffs since 2012 and have surpassed 80 points once since then. Even with those factors taken into account, Raanta was outstanding when healthy last year and has a .927 save percentage in 116 games over the past four seasons. The 29-year-old does not have the track record to be considered an elite netminder, but once they’re off the board, Raanta could bring nice value.

Linus Ullmark, Buffalo – The 25-year-old netminder is coming off a strong AHL campaign, during which he posted a .922 save percentage in 44 games, and while veteran Carter Hutton appears to have a leg up in the Sabres’ goaltending competition, Ullmark has potential to emerge as Buffalo’s number one option between the pipes.

Fit The Bill – Calgary Flames 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:27:42 +0000

Review/State of Play - Expectations were running high in Calgary heading into the season. They had made the playoffs in coach Glen Gulutzan first year after missing for six of the previous seven seasons. An emerging young core and some additions on defense (Travis Hamonic) and goal (Mike Smith) meant to push the team further, costing them draft picks and ultimately not drafting until the fourth round in the 2018 NHL Draft.

The team collapsed down the stretch only winning 12 of their final 36 games in a crushing disappointment. Coach Gulutzan was fired as a result, replaced by Bill Peters in the off season. He comes from the Hurricanes featuring a strong possession game.

Offensively they struggled finishing 27^th in the league for goals for and the third worst power play in the league. Their supposed team strength with an enviable defense group they allowed the 10^th lowest shots against in the NHL, but 13^th worst in goals against of 2.96 per game. Smith was not the answer in net. Brian Burke having moved on and a new coach, GM Brad Treliving decided to blow things up with a blockbuster trade.

Blockbuster blow up - They moved their leading scoring defender in Dougie Hamilton (17 goals and 44 points – tied for the league lead in goals), in a package with Bill Peters old team that netted them Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin. Leaving with Hamilton was Michael Ferland who played primarily with Gaudreau and Monahan and promising prospect Adam Fox. Replacing Ferland will either be Lindholm or James Neal, acquired through free agency.

Hamilton’s departure leaves a big hole as he and Giordano formed one of the best duo’s in the league. Hanifin is only 21 years old and contributed 10 goals and 32 points in his third NHL season. A high draft pick, he may benefit from the mentoring of either captain Mike Giordano or steady Travis Hamonic – allowing him to develop with some insurance. The Flames still boast a strong defensive corps of Giordan, T.J Brodie, Hamonic and Michael Stone without Hamilton and the upgrade on the wing was crucial to improving the offense. Hamonic was a disappointment in his first season, but a year of acclimatization should help. Brodie also regressed, along with others, and chemistry with Hamonic did not come. Peters will bring a new approach, but has a tool set to work with.

Elias Lindholm, 23 years old signed a six-year extension ($4.85 AAV) with the Flames after being acquired locking him up through his prime. Peters familiarity with both players (Hanifin remains an RFA for the moment) may have been key – and the signing reinforced his confidence in Lindholm. He can play either center or right wing giving some options to the coach.

CALGARY, AB - FEBRUARY 01: Calgary Flames Center Sean Monahan (23) takes a break during a game between the Calgary Flames and the Minnesota Wild on February 01, 2017, at the Scotiabank Saddledome, in Calgary AB. (Photo by Jose Quiroz/Icon Sportswire)

Offensive retooling - Up front hey have budding superstars in Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, with Matthew Tkachuk emerging last season with 24 goals. Neal and Lindholm fill in a void on right wing to go with strength on the left side in Gaudreau and Tkachuk.

The added depth down the middle signing 31-year-old Derek Ryan, who also played with Peters in Carolina, in free agency to a three-year contract ($3.125 AAV). He contributed 15 goals last season and as importantly won 56.5% of his faceoffs taking the second most on the team and led the regulars on Carolina in CF% with 56.55% - and third in the league for players over 1000 minutes - interestingly behind Dougie Hamilton and Mark Giordano. Peters is a possession guy and Ryan improves his team in that area.

A disappointing season from 22-year-old Sam Bennett and 23-year-old Curtis Lazar. Bennett contributed only 11 goals and 15 assists in his third NHL season and Lazar acquired from Ottawa with some contributed two goals in 65 games and endured some really challenging stretches. They are both young enough to turn it around, but the organization must be anxious for signs of development. 23-year-old Mark Jankowski contributed 17 goals and played a regular shift last season. He has played well in the NCAA and the AHL and the team has been patient in his development and is considered an important piece of the near future. Austin Czarnik signed as a free agent for two years ($1.25 million AAV) and the Flames hope he can contribute after finishing third in the AHL in scoring last year.

The rest of the forward group is solid with 29-year-old Mikael Backlund emerging as one of the best two-way centers in the league and was rewarded with a six- year contract ($5.35 million AAV). He, Matthew Tkachuck and Michael Frolik were teamed together most of last season and represent a strong shut down line that can provide timely scoring.

In net Mike Smith has one more year on his contract at $4.25 million. Smith can be brilliant and was to start the season contributing to the optimism in Calgary. Unfortunately the Flames fortune would follow his. He had groin issues to end the season and his GAA ballooned to 3.45 and his save percentage was 0.896 after the all-star break. Goal remains an enormous question mark.

Outlook - The Flames are young and developing still and have a mature defense group that ranks against most in the NHL. If Smith can be heroic, they could be a very good team this season. A playoff spot should be the goal and attainable.

NHL Prospect Watch: Boston Bruins

Ryan Wagman — Tue, 02 Aug 2016 13:28:39 +0000

Although not quite to the same extreme, the Boston Bruins have built their system similarly to the Chicago Blackhawks in that they heavily scout and draft players who are destined to play in college. Last season, 11 Bruins prospects were playing NCAA hockey, while another pair were spending an extra year in the USHL, the largest NCAA-feeder league. At the recent draft, as if to reiterate that this element of organizational philosophy had not changed under relatively new GM Don Sweeney, they took a college player in the first round and drafted three other college-bound amateurs among their six total picks.

A great example of this philosophy can be seen in 2015 second rounder Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson (also known as JFK), who was selected out of the Omaha program in the USHL. A Swedish import, JFK had shown marked improvement in his two years in the USHL, including reasonably good showings above his age group for his home country. He was a point per game player in his draft year with a strong reputation for two-way play. Since his selection by the Bruins, the rangy center has matriculated at local Boston University, where the head office can very easily keep tabs on a player who will have earned his spot among the most promising in the system. As a freshman with the Terriers, JFK maintained a promising scoring touch (10 goals, 20 assists in 39 games) while once again representing the Tre Kronor, this time at the WJC.

Forsbacka-Karlsson is a five tool player, who projects to be above average in all offensive characteristics while also bearing the stereotypical Swedish high hockey IQ. He has plus acceleration as well as good agility. His wrist shot is whippy, with a plus release. I fully expect him to add at least 50% to his goal total as a sophomore and doubling the total would not surprise in the least. He is confident in his puck skills and owns solid finishing moves. He can carry the puck right into coverage, and feel reasonably secure that he will come out the other side unscathed. BU also used the freshman regularly on the penalty kill, indicative of the maturity in his game. He is not a banger by any means, but has decent strength already and room to fill out on his frame. He may be ready to embark on his professional journey as soon as next summer. In any case, he is expected to be the leader of the BU offense, as the only two players who outscored him last year will be paid to play this season.

April 11, 2015: Boston University Defenseman Matt Grzelcyk (5). The Providence College Friars defeated the Boston University Terriers 4-3 in the final of the Frozen Four, NCAA Division 1 Men's Ice Hockey Championship at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. Providence wins their first ever NCAA championship.

Matthew Grzelcyk, D, Boston University (NCAA) (85^th overall, 2012)

One of JFK’s teammates at BU last season, Grzelcyk elicites cheap comparisons to current Bruin Torey Krug. For the most part the comp comes from both blueliners standing a mere 5-9”. In this case, the comp is doubly appropriate as Grzelcyk is also a gifted offensive defenseman, although he has a ways to go to reach Krug’s NHL utility. After scaring Bruins supporters by playing the full four seasons in college, Grzelcyk finally put pen to paper on an Entry Level Contract with Boston shortly after BU was knocked out of the NCAA tournament.

The Massachusetts native played a very freewheeling game for the Terriers and will need to adapt next year in the AHL, but there are some tools there to strongly suggest that he should not fully abandon his game. Namely, Grzelcyk is a strong skater with a rocket from the point. At the very least, he can reach the NHL as a power play specialist. While undersized, he does not play a weak game, but most of his attempts at physicality are doomed to fail due to his inherent strength deficit. He needs a lot of refinement on his play away from the puck as well. As he tends to think offense, he will get out of position too often trying to push the play. When he times it right, he is an absolute boon to the possession game. Unfortunately, if he mistimes it, or misjudges the play, he ends up leaving his mates shorthanded. This is not a function of his size, but of his proclivities, so being forced to play a more structured game, as well as take on a role where he is not the go-to option, should do wonders for his all-around development. With Krug locked up in Boston long-term, he will need to show that a he can be more than a power play specialist to find a regular NHL job, although with more attention to detail in his own end and a willingness by the Bruins to play two “skill” guys on the blueline will allow him to get there after roughly a full season in the AHL.

Ryan Fitzgerald, C, Boston College (120^th overall, 2013)
Matthew Benning, D, Northeastern (175^th overall, 2012)
Wiley Sherman, D, Harvard (150^th overall, 2013)
Ryan Donato, C, Harvard (56^th overall, 2014)

Fitzgerald, Benning, Sherman, and Donato are all listed together here as all four, like Forsbacka-Karlsson and Grzelcyk above, played their college hockey in the Boston region. No matter which game Bruins scouts wanted to watch in the Beanpot Classic, each side featured at least one Bruins prospect.

Donato, the most promising of the quartet, gained some national attention with a sharp showing at the recent WJC. He has a plus second gear and can beat many defenders to the outside with pure speed. Although his shot is average at best, the son of former Bruin Ted Donato has plus hands. Playing in the shadow of Hobey Baker winner Jimmy Vesey as a freshman, he put up respectable numbers and should do even better for the experience. He demonstrates hints of speed, stickhandling ability and offensive vision, but did not often enough show all three traits at the same time. More consistency in execution should make him a more exciting player altogether.

Like Donato, Matthew Benning is another Boston legacy prospect as Uncle Jim was the Bruins’ Assistant GM when Matthew was drafted in 2012. A two-way defenseman, the younger Benning is a solid skater with plus puck skills. He sees passing lanes very well and consistently makes crisp, accurate passes, whether the target is moving or stationary. He is the primary transition-starter with Northeastern. Not a physical player, Benning can be sloppy with his gap control, but will utilize his stick occasionally to break up rushes. The upside may only be that of a decent third pairing blueliner, but there is little except opportunity to prevent him from reaching that plateau.

Ryan Fitzgerald is yet another legacy prospect. His father, Tom, played 1,097 games in the NHL, the final 71 of which, in 2005-06 were in a Bruins uniform. Ryan Fitzgerald is a player who mostly gets by on his above average hockey smarts, which come to the fore in all three zones. He always seems to be near the puck, even though his skating is only in the realm of average. He has scored over 0.5 goals per game over the past two seasons at BC even though his shot is subpar. Beyond always being in the right place at the right time, Fitzgerald receive plus marks for his stickhandling skills. He will complete a fourth season at BC, but projects to fill a bottom six role as a professional, who can also take on a leading role on the penalty kill.

The final member of the Bruins Beanpot contingent*, mammoth defender Wiley Sherman, is more of a project than the other five profiled here. Listed at 6-6”, 201, plays a game in line with his physical dimensions, in the sense that he is quite physical and difficult to play against. His skating is good for his size, although he will always struggle against smaller, fleet of foot opponents. Furthermore, his hands and game processing are in need of improvement if he is to make it to the NHL. While he increased his offensive production as a sophomore (from three points to ten) he will never be an offensive force as his core strengths are all in the area of force, as opposed to stealth. There is nothing wrong with using a fifth round pick on a player of this ilk, but he remains as much a long shot today as he was when he was originally drafted as a prep schooler three years ago.

*This is as good a place as any to remind you that this series is not looking at 2016 draft picks, as first rounder Charlie McAvoy has already completed his freshman year at Boston University.

Danton Heinen, C, University of Denver (NCAA) (116^th overall, 2014)

One third of the Pacific Rim line which took the University of Denver to the Frozen Four, Heinen, like linemate Trevor Moore, has since turned pro. The former fourth round pick has surpassed one point per game in both of his collegiate seasons in Colorado, a product of soft and creative hands. The B.C. native has plus vision that he uses with frequency, whether threading the needle with a pass, or reading the game in his own end, looking to create turnovers. His other offensive tools, his skating and his shot, both project as somewhat above average. He also has roughly average size and physicality, which, in his case, means that he holds his own. While there is reason to think he could contribute at the NHL level very quickly, if not straight-away, the Bruins have enough depth down the middle to let Heinen develop for at least a few months in Providence. Ultimately, his ascension to the NHL will depend on how quickly he acclimatizes to the professional game. Heinen has second line upside.

Malcolm Subban, G, Providence (AHL) (24^th overall, 2012)
Zane McIntyre, G, Providence (AHL (165^th overall, 2010)

Combined, Subban and McIntyre played in 58 of the Providence Bruins’ 76 games. Boston would have preferred to see them split the entire season for their AHL affiliate, but Subban took a puck to the windpipe on February 8, shattering his larynx and knocking him out for the season. McIntyre, on the other hand, was simply disappointing, with an .898 save percentage that was not only worse than Subban’s, but also markedly worse than that of journeyman AHLer Jeremy Smith, brought in after Subban went down, who posted a 0.934 save percentage in 20 games, and was the starter between the pipes for Providence’s aborted playoff run.

The two netminders of note here are a study in contrasts in that each has some of the attributes that often go into making quality goalies, but neither, as of yet, has been able to bring the full picture to fruition. Subban, the former first rounder, is the goalie with the more enticing natural tools. P.K.’s younger brother is extremely athletic and moves better than most of his peers. More often as well. While his mobility allows him to scramble for second chances and make plenty of exciting saves, he also often gets out of position too quickly and is forced to scramble to avoid letting in soft goals. On other occasions, when the play is close to the crease, but not close enough for him to employ a poke check, he makes himself too small, opening up plenty of room towards the top half of the net.

McIntyre, on the other hand, was drafted with comparatively little fanfare as a sixth rounder, and also a different name, as he was known as Zane Gothberg at the time. Although, like Subban, McIntyre is listed at 6-2”, and a few pounds north of 200, he is nowhere near the athlete of his more renowned teammate. While Subban is very good with low shots, kicking out his legs with ease, and struggles more with higher shots when he gets too deep into his crouch, McIntyre has the reverse split. His slower legs make him beatable down low, he makes himself bigger in the crease and has a sharp glove hand. McIntyre has plus anticipation and is calm in his net. He could stand to improve his rebound control. There are plenty examples of both styles of goalie who have seen success in the NHL, but the athleticism (and pedigree) point to the more likely future NHL starter of this tandem to be Subban. That said, neither are near ready yet. Subban has publicly agitated for an NHL job next year, but his development would not likely be well served by sitting on the bench for 60-odd games per year behind Tuukka Rask. He still has not proved that he could master the AHL level.

Austin Czarnik, C, Providence (AHL) (UFA: Mar. 31, 2015)
Noel Acciari, C, Providence (AHL) (UFA: Jun. 2, 2015)

Along with Frank Vatrano, Czarnik and Acciari were signed as undrafted free agents last spring after successful NCAA careers. Czarnik from Miami (Ohio) and Acciari from Providence. Both are examples of quality scouting from a hockey sector that is often overlooked. While neither player should be seen as having a strong chance of a long NHL career, both are also solid bets as underdogs.

Czarnik is undersized yet talented. He demonstrates good vision and has a very good shot. His release, particularly on his wrister, is very quick while Providence often used him on the point during power plays. Acciari, on the other hand, is much more a meat-and-potatoes player. A good skater with solid edges, he offers relatively little offensively. What he provides brings to the rink is a feisty, physical game, which he couples with a good hockey IQ, often lining up with Providence’s first PK unit. In spite of their polar opposites in terms of points production, Czarnik spent the entire season in the AHL, while Acciari received a 19 game trial with Boston. Czarnik could play in the NHL for a coach who doesn’t mind a lack of physicality in a third or fourth line center. Acciari fits the traditional fourth line agitator role to a tee.