Ben CHIAROT – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – DETROIT RED WINGS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 19:51:57 +0000

DETROIT, MI - FEBRUARY 09: Detroit Red Wings Right Wing Lucas Raymond (23) in action during the game between Calgary Flames and Detroit Red Wings on February 9, 2023 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI (Photo by Allan Dranberg/Icon Sportswire)

For the ninth straight season, the Detroit Red Wings came up short of making the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Their 86 points put them five points out of the wild card a year after they lost the tiebreaker to the Washington Capitals for the final wild card spot. They’ve been close to getting back, but close isn’t good enough and a midseason slump last year cost Derek Lalonde his job as head coach and ushered in Todd McLellan who helped turn things around for a spell. While Detroit was painfully average at five-on-five, they again had one of the top power plays in the league. They had the fourth best team at the man advantage scoring 27 percent of the time. However, they had the league’s worst penalty kill at 70.1 percent. What McLellan can do with a full offseason and training camp will be curious to see because the team performed much better under him in the second half of the year, but as we’ve seen in his last few stops around the league recently, his demanding nature can wear teams down.

What’s Changed?

Goaltending has been a problem in Detroit for the past few years, and they made sure to address it this summer by adding John Gibson from the Anaheim Ducks. The longtime Ducks No. 1 will look to be Detroit’s saviour in net and, when healthy, he’s proven to be a top-flight netminder. He ceded the No. 1 job in Anaheim last year to Lukas Dostal, but in 29 games he went 11-11-2 with a .912 save percentage. In his career he’s 204-217-63 with a .910 save percentage and 24 shutouts. The Red Wings haven’t had a goalie this accomplished since Jimmy Howard was their No. 1. In free agency, they added veteran depth with James van Riemsdyk up front and Travis Hamonic on defence for one year each. Mason Appleton signed for two years, $5.8 million. Vladimir Tarasenko was sent to Minnesota for future considerations after he struggled and wasn’t happy in Detroit last season.

What Would Success Look Like?

If the Red Wings can mimic what division rivals Ottawa and Montreal did last year and took a rocket ride on the backs of their young stars to make the playoffs, that would have everyone in Detroit doing cartwheels. Led by Dylan Larkin and with emerging stars like Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, it feels like the Red Wings are right there to be a playoff team. Having Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane helping Detroit’s power play fill the net is huge, and the addition of Gibson ideally quiets everything else down in goal. Detroit’s defence stands out as a weak point, however, as Seider must be and do everything for them. So far, he’s been able to shoulder that load and will need to keep it up for them to crack through to the playoffs.

What Could Go Wrong?

Slumps crushed non-playoff teams in the Eastern Conference last year (just ask Buffalo and Columbus) and any prolonged period of losing means giving up points and ground to the competition. Detroit has a lot of young parts but is a very veteran group. That age can come with the hazards of injuries and dips in performance. For as much as Gibson is a savior for them in goal, his injury history is something that looms over what they can do. Having Cam Talbot as an experienced backup is a huge bonus, but when he was given a heavier workload last season, injuries and performance got in the way. General Manager Steve Yzerman needs all of his moves to come up as hits or else.

Top Breakout Candidate

If there’s a player to keep an eye out for it in Detroit, forward Marco Kasper is the one. The Red Wings’ first-round pick from 2022 had an outstanding rookie season with 19 goals and 18 assists in 77 games. He may not have been expected to carry that kind of load for them when camp opened last year, but his play forced the issue. Now Kasper is slated to be the No. 2 center behind Dylan Larkin and that added depth up the middle suddenly has Detroit feeling very good about the position and for good reason. Kasper’s skill set is outstanding and his creativity with the puck makes him dangerous in the offensive zone.

FORWARDS

Lucas Raymond

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	28	56	84	1.02

After a stereotypically down sophomore season, Lucas Raymond rebounded from it in a massive way the past two seasons and took things to an even higher-level last year. Raymond led the Red Wings in scoring with 80 points including 27 goals. His playmaking was outstanding both at even strength and on the power play. He led the team with 53 assists including 29 with the man advantage. Although Raymond had 31 goals two seasons ago, it’s helping his teammates score goals where he’s able to do even more damage. Whether it means he’s feeding Dylan Larkin or finding Alex DeBrincat or Patrick Kane to score, that he can finish plays himself as well adds to the danger he provides. It's been impressive to see Raymond’s game take steps forward since his tough second season in 2022-2023. Given some of the struggles the Red Wings had in general, it would’ve been easy enough for a young player to continue to struggle with them. Instead, we’ve seen Raymond develop a bit of an edge to his game and not allow others to push him around. That added confidence has allowed his game to further flourish and grow alongside his veteran teammates.

Dylan Larkin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	32	44	76	0.93

It’s a shame the Detroit Red Wings haven’t made the playoffs since 2016 because watching Dylan Larkin play and perform with the kind of consistency he does only makes us wonder how good he’d be with the stakes being higher. We got a taste of that in the Four Nations Face-Off when he played for the United States, but with the heart and soul he puts into his play for Detroit, it’s tough to see his efforts not extend to the postseason. The Red Wings captain had 30 goals for the fourth straight season and finished with 70 points, tied for second with Alex DeBrincat behind Lucas Raymond for the team lead. Incredibly, the 29-year-old center is headed into his 11th season with Detroit and with the kind of consistent production he’s provided them over the years, having him help bring Raymond into stardom on his wing does wonders for their success. Whether he has DeBrincat or Patrick Kane on the right side works well for them to provide a top line that can do damage against every team in the league. Larkin was a big-time player on the power play as he tied with DeBrincat for the team lead with 13 power play goals. Oddly enough, he was fourth in power play points behind his linemates on the first unit Raymond, Kane, and DeBrincat and just ahead of Moritz Seider. He’s doing his part to lead them, but management just needs to give them more depth to get them back to the playoffs.

Alex DeBrincat

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	40	37	77	0.94

In the two seasons since being acquired from Ottawa, Alex DeBrincat has made the Red Wings’ investment in him look like a very smart one. DeBrincat led the Red Wings in goals with 39 last season and came within two of tying his career-high of 41, something he did twice while with the Chicago Blackhawks. He had 70 points and finished tied for second on Detroit in scoring with Dylan Larkin behind sometimes linemate Lucas Raymond. Where DeBrincat proved to be dangerous was part of the Red Wings’ wicked power play attack in which he tied with Dylan Larkin with 13 goals. Whether it’s acting as a sniper or a goal mouth threat, success was easy enough to be found for the diminutive offensive dynamo. Over his two seasons with Detroit. DeBrincat has 66 goals and 137 points. Bringing him back home to Michigan has been a great move for GM Steve Yzerman and the way he fits in with their top attackers has made it a home run move. It’s difficult to ask for more from DeBrincat in the years to come, especially after how well he performed last season, but Detroit does need a little extra from everyone. That said, if he repeats what he did last season it sets the Red Wings up well by having a virtual 40-goal scorer built right in.

Patrick Kane

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	20	35	55	0.79

It might be the norm for fans online to highlight the defensive shortcomings in Patrick Kane’s game but looking past that to what he’s still accomplishing offensively as he turns 36 years old is reason enough to be appreciative of his play. Kane had 59 points for Detroit last season, 29 of which came on the power play. His 59 points and 21 goals were fourth most on the Red Wings last season and he was part of a top power play unit there that was fourth best in the NHL. Kane’s 12 power play goals put him one behind both Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat who each had 13. In two seasons with Detroit, Kane’s scored 41 goals in 122 games and put up 106 points. For Kane in his prime, those were single-season-type numbers, but now, after having hip surgery two years ago and being north of 35, he’s been a solid performer, especially on the power play. He’ll begin this season just eight goals shy of 500 for his career, a mark only 48 players in league history have accomplished. With Toronto’s John Tavares two goals ahead of him, it’ll be a race between them to see who can hit the mark first. In the long run, Kane hopes to get Detroit back to the postseason for the first time since 2016. Kane himself has only been to the playoffs twice in the past eight seasons.

Marco Kasper

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	28	30	58	0.72

When the Red Wings drafted Marco Kasper eighth overall in 2022, their excitement in doing so had to be immense. He came with a sky-high skill set, tremendous offensive instincts and outstanding skating ability. Upon his arrival into the NHL full-time last season, it became apparent as the season rolled on that they landed a player that could be a fixture there for some time. Kasper put up 19 goals and 18 assists (37 points) in 77 games last season and ascended the lineup after he was eased into action early in the season. When he eventually found his way into the top half of the forward group, it proved to be a fortuitous decision because of the creativity he injected into any line he played with. Even with his somewhat tempered usage, he had the opportunity to work on lines with all of the Red Wings’ top players. Call it on-the-job learning if you’d like, but what it did was help the team figure out what types of players he blended best. As he heads into his sophomore season, the hope is he can avoid the struggles usually associated with that. Whoever Kasper lines up with this season, he’ll have the benefit of having a strong first season to show him the way and, ideally, prior experience playing alongside his wingers to hit the ground running.

Jonatan Berggren

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	15	17	32	0.42

Hopes have been high in Detroit for Jonatan Berggren. When they selected him in the second round of the 2018 draft, they knew they were getting a player out of Sweden who could fill the net there. While he’s been able to do the same whenever he’s been in the AHL, doing so at the NHL level has been a bit more difficult. Last season with Detroit, Berggren had 12 goals and 12 assists in 75 games. What stood out more about Berggren’s run last season was his role, as he averaged just under 13 minutes of ice time per game. Playing on the third or fourth line doesn’t exactly lend itself to producing big numbers or being asked to play a role in which offense will be stressed. That wasn’t quite the case last season as he played a bit less than half of his five-on-five minutes with Vladimir Tarasenko and J.T. Compher. While Compher matches up well defensively, Tarasenko is much more capable offensively. Berggren possesses a lot of skill and ability and after he put up 15 goals in his rookie season in 2022-2023, the thought was he was poised to breakout as their next big offensive weapon. But his second season did not go well, and he spent most of that year scoring in the AHL. If he’s going to be a bigger part of this team, he’ll need to fight his way into a top six or nine role to do so or become a stronger defensive forward and the time to do it is right now.

Andrew Copp

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	9	15	24	0.32

No one’s seen their role change more the past few seasons in Detroit than Andrew Copp. When the Red Wings signed him as a free agent in 2022 after he had a 21-goal, 53-point season split between the Winnipeg Jets and New York Rangers, the idea was he’d slot in as their defensive-minded but offensively capable number two center, and they’d roll from there. When Copp posted nine goals and 33 assists in his first season with Detroit, however, it was clear their confidence things would work out was shaken because J.T. Compher was signed after that season and took over that role. Since then, he’s been steady in a slightly lesser position down in the lineup, although a pectoral injury ended his season in late February and he was held to 56 games. With Marco Kasper’s rise and hopeful improvement as well as Compher’s established role on the team, the likelihood of Copp anchoring the fourth line would seem high. Detroit is deeper on the wings with the additions of James van Riemsdyk and Mason Appleton and if Copp is holding down a line lower in the lineup that should benefit them well in matchups because he should ideally be better than other teams’ third- or fourth-line centers.

J.T. Compher

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	13	19	32	0.41

Two years ago, when Detroit signed J.T. Compher to a five-year, $25.5 million deal, the idea for him was to lock-in as their number two center behind Dylan Larkin. Compher could score and defend well enough to provide a bit of a change-up in how to handle matchups and when it came to blending lines. After all, he just came off a career-high 52-point season. He followed it up with 48 points in his first season with the Red Wings and it seemed like things would work out appropriately. Last season, however, Compher’s stats fell more in line with what we’ve seen from him before in Colorado. He had 11 goals and finished with 32 points and averaged 16:41 time on-ice per game. Even though his ice time was down, he still played a vital all-around role for Detroit and was part of their power play and penalty kill units. For most of the season, Compher centered a line with Vladimir Tarasenko and Jonatan Berggren but also worked a fair bit with Patrick Kane on the wing as well. It’s a compliment to him that he plays up in the lineup with offensively talented guys like Tarasenko and Kane but also can hold his own on the penalty kill as well. That said, if he’s lining up with Kane you’d like to see better offensive numbers. Now with young rising star Marco Kasper becoming more of an offensive threat, there’s a possibility we see Compher playing a role that leans more towards defending than attacking under coach Todd McLellan.

James van Riemsdyk

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
68	15	22	37	0.54

The Red Wings needed veteran help down in the lineup and landed 36-year-old James van Riemsdyk to do just that. As a big player with good hands and positioning around the net, he’s able cause issues around the net cleaning up loose pucks and taking away goaltenders’ eyes. Last season with Columbus, van Riemsdyk had 16 goals and 20 assists (36 points) and helped balance out the latter part of the Blue Jackets lineup. Throughout his career, he’s been known for his ability to score around the goal and in the slot when given quality looks. With how good he is handling the puck down low, he provides a ton of value in his own zone and very well may play on the Red Wings’ second power play unit. Van Riemsdyk teamed up often with younger players like Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli in Columbus and did so in Boston the year before with Trent Frederic and Morgan Geekie to give them a veteran to lean on and learn from. That kind of role might be recreated with Detroit with guys like Marco Kasper and Jonatan Berggren. Overall, the past five or six years have seen van Riemsdyk become a steady 35-to-40 point player with anywhere from 15-to-20 goals a year. The Red Wings hope that trend continues, and he can help guide their younger players.

DEFENCE

Moritz Seider

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	44	56	0.68

Defensemen are traditionally the workhorses of every NHL team, but in Moritz Seider’s case he was that and then some. Seider was Detroit’s No. 1 defenseman in every way last season. He played the most minutes, had the most goals, assists and points, and was their exclusive power play quarterback. Red Wings defensemen had 26 points on the power play and Seider was responsible for 24 of them. He had four out of five goals from blue liners with the man advantage as well. Simply put, he was brilliant. Because of his heavy all-around usage, Seider’s advanced stats were basically break-even when it came to shot attempts and scoring chances but considering what he generated for Detroit in all situations, it’s hard to argue with his value to them. What would do the Red Wings a lot of good is to have someone, anyone, to do some of the things that Seider can do reasonably well. As a No. 1 defenseman he’s going to shoulder most of the responsibilities to begin with, but a lot is demanded of him the way things are. Fortunately, he’s been able to handle it with aplomb. Seider played more than half of his minutes at five-on-five with defensive defenseman Ben Chiarot which allowed Seider to have more freedom to join the attack in the offensive zone, but overall, that pairing struggled preventing attempts. Most of the rest of his ice time was spent with Simon Edvinsson and that pairing saw shot numbers improve greatly. If that pairing is reunited it could be beneficial to both.

Simon Edvinsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	8	28	36	0.44

Last season was Simon Edvinsson’s first full one in the NHL and he was able to make enough of an impression to earn a larger role moving ahead into this season. Edvinsson had seven goals and 24 assists in 78 games with the Red Wings and averaged 21:07 time on-ice. The sizable uptick in his playing time is due in part to being paired with No. 1 defender Moritz Seider for roughly half of his minutes played at five-on-five. The other half of his playing time was spent with rookie Albert Johansson where those two played more or less as Detroit’s number two pairing. Edvinsson, the sixth overall pick in the 2021 draft, stands at 6-foot-6, 210 pounds and while he casts an imposing figure, his game is better built around his ability to move the puck, and he has surprising elusiveness while carrying it. A defender his size makes many believe he’ll throw his body around to make plays, but that’s not exactly the case. While he gets in the way of shots in the defensive zone, playing physically is not his main objective. The points he generated last season show that he could be effective in being part of a second wave of attack from the blue line and give Seider proper backup in handling that role.

Erik Gustafsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
68	1	17	18	0.26

Entering his second season with the Red Wings, Erik Gustafsson looks to continue in his role supplying puck support in helping the team escape their own end and generating more of an attack up the ice. Last season, Gustafsson posted two goals and 16 assists in 60 games while averaging 16:19 in ice time. That kind of usage put him solidly in a third pairing role and he played more than 80 percent of his five-on-five ice time with Justin Holl. A broken foot ended his season in late March. Known always more for being an offensive defenseman, Gustafsson handled that role well and was a positive influence in generating more shot attempts than allowed while he was on the ice and the Red Wings scoring chance quality was greater than they gave up when he was out there as well. In his kind of position on the third pairing, that’s all you can ask for along with limiting goals allowed. Unfortunately, Gustafsson’s minus-19 plus-minus rating was the lowest on the team. He’ll be expected to play a similar role again this season and whether he reunites with Holl or teams up with summer signee Jacob Bernard-Docker, the third pair would seem to be squared away.

Ben Chiarot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	4	12	16	0.21

There may be no more fascinating player in Detroit than Ben Chiarot and it’s for a host of reasons. Chiarot is a straightforward defensive defenseman. He plays physical all over the ice, ties up pucks in the corners, battles in front of the net and blocks shots. Relying on him for big offense isn’t something that will work out, but if there’s a guy you need to do the dirty work in the defensive end of the ice, that’s what he’ll do. Last season, Chiarot had four goals and nine assists in 81 games. The numbers that matter more for him, however, were the 142 blocked shots and 127 hits delivered while averaging 21:14 in ice time. He spent most of last season partnered with Moritz Seider on the Red Wings’ top pairing with more than 800 minutes together at five-on-five. When he wasn’t with Seider he worked with Jeff Petry and that duo struggled to prevent shot attempts and scoring chances greatly. Whether Chiarot returns next to Seider or not could be a big factor in how well (or not) the Red Wings can have more success. Chiarot is entering the final year of his contract in Detroit and while he’s been a good soldier throughout his time there, the reliance they’ve had on him to play big minutes and key situations was controversial in its own way. That said, Detroit has had many needs as they’ve attempted to emerge from their rebuild and return to the postseason.

GOAL

John Gibson

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
49	22	19	5	3	.905	2.68

Maybe John Gibson isn't a star starter capable of 60-70 games a season any longer, but the 31-year-old former Anaheim backstop proved last season - when his heir apparent Lukas Dostal embraced the bulk of the starts for the year - that he's still capable of putting together some great performances when he's not being asked to do too much too often. That makes him a potentially great fit for the still-retooling Detroit Red Wings, who were just a few wins shy of being a Wild Card last year. He'll join a returning Cam Talbot, who made it clear when he joined Detroit that he was looking for the opportunity to stay in one place for a bit - and with a perfectly acceptable year under his belt, he should make a strong pairing with Gibson to challenge in a tumultuous Atlantic.

Gibson obviously isn't a long-term answer for the Red Wings, but he's a great asset for the next few years - particularly given that his preferred style of play, which emphasizes a more conservative approach that forces shooters to show their hand before he makes a move, shares a number of traits with prospect Sebastian Cossa's own brand of goaltending. This provides a stylistic mentor for Cossa, a tandem partner for Talbot, and some security for Gibson as he finishes out his contract and considers his next move.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – DETROIT RED WINGS – Team Preview

Thu, 26 Sep 2024 20:00:00 +0000

_{OTTAWA, ON - FEBRUARY 28: Detroit Red Wings Center Dylan Larkin (71) applies pressure on the forecheck during first period National Hockey League action between the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators on February 28, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)}

Signing Patrick Kane in late November wasn’t quite enough. Although Kane rebounded nicely from his hip resurfacing surgery, providing 20 goals and 47 points in 50 contests to help Detroit finish a respectable ninth offensively (3.35 goals per game), the team struggled defensively, ranking 25th with a 3.28 xGA/60, and dealt with inconsistent goaltending, leading to the Red Wings finishing with a 41-32-9 record and a sliver out of the playoffs. Although it was Detroit’s eighth straight campaign without a playoff berth, it was at least the team’s best showing since 2015-16 in terms of PTS%.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Detroit watched forwards Daniel Sprong and David Perron, defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere, and goaltender James Reimer depart as unrestricted free agents, but the Red Wings were able to retain the services of Patrick Kane, who inked a one-year, $6.5 million deal. Detroit also attempted to stabilize its goaltending situation with the signing of Cam Talbot and bolstered its offence by inking Vladimir Tarasenko. Erik Gustafsson was brought in to help round out the blue line while Jack Campbell will be given a shot at redemption on a one-year, $775,000 contract.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Detroit is at a point now where anything short of a playoff berth should be seen as a disappointment. The Red Wings’ offence is certainly sufficient to accomplish that task, especially with the addition of Tarasenko, but is their goaltending good enough? Talbot was able to be of great help to the Kings last year, posting a 27-20-6 record, 2.50 GAA and .913 save percentage in 54 contests. On top of that, Campbell looked good in the minors last season after falling out of favor in Edmonton, so he shouldn’t be discounted. Throw Ville Husso and Alex Lyon into the mix and Detroit has a wealth of potential starters.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? There’s a reason why Detroit has so many experienced netminders: none of them are sure things. Talbot has the best track record, but he’s also 37 years old, so who knows how good he’ll be. Campbell’s recent success in the minors won’t necessarily translate to the NHL, especially after some truly dreary results with Edmonton. Lyon was good at points in 2023-24, but overall, he was average at best, which isn’t good enough in Detroit because the defence in front of the goaltending has been the true Achilles’ heel. If the Red Wings make life as tough as they did for their netminders in 2023-24, then this might be another lost year for Detroit.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Hungry to end its playoff drought, Detroit is expected to feature of roster heavy on veterans. Simon Edvinsson figures to be one of the sole exceptions. The No. 6 overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, Edvinsson might even serve in a top-four capacity this season. He recorded eight goals and 30 points across 54 AHL contests last season, though his offensive upside doesn’t compare to Detroit’s other young blueliner, Moritz Seider. However, the 21-year-old Edvinsson is a towering, physical presence and might provide the kind of help Detroit’s goaltenders desperately need.

FORWARD

Dylan Larkin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	35	50	85	1.08

As Dylan Larkin goes, so do the hopes of the Detroit Red Wings returning to the postseason. As the team captain, he’s the beating heart of the team and his performance is what pushes their offence. In 68 games, Larkin finished second on the team in points with 69 points, three behind Lucas Raymond. His 33 goals led the team and his 1.01 points per game was the highest rate on the roster. Larkin was a dual threat player racking up 17 of his 33 goals at even strength and another 14 on the power play that was bolstered by the presence of Patrick Kane and defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere. Larkin’s 26 power play points were second behind Gostisbehere’s 29 and he even added two shorthanded goals as well. Larkin’s all-around play drives the Red Wings to success and when his teammates can play to his level, it makes Detroit a dangerous team to deal with. As a center, he was outstanding on faceoffs and won more than 55 percent of his draws to help ensure possession. Even though his point totals don’t rank out with the elite scorers in the NHL, a fully healthy season would show off what he can do to help cure the Red Wings’ playoff drought. With the way the team rallies around him when he’s playing, he’s the most important player on the team.

Lucas Raymond

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	35	48	83	1.01

Sophomore slumps are often a curious thing because they cast doubt on the players who have them following great rookie campaigns. Two years ago, Raymond’s second NHL season saw him hit roadblocks along the way and his offensive numbers dipped. But after his performance last season, he showed that he is the real deal and will be vital to the future success of the Red Wings. Raymond led the team in scoring with 72 points in 82 games. His 31 goals were second behind Dylan Larkin and his 25 even strength goals were most on the team. That he posted 56 points at even strength highlighted how good he was in general. What’s even more remarkable is that Raymond was able to pile up goals while not exactly pumping a ton of shots on net (163) at just under two shots per game. Raymond proved to be a puck hound around the net cashing in on loose pucks but still capable of sniping shots past goaltenders when he has the opportunity. The Red Wings struggled defensively in respect to controlling shot attempts and shot quality at five-on-five, but Raymond was among the best on the roster at controlling play behind Dylan Larkin. If the Red Wings are going to improve in those areas, it’ll be behind Raymond and others.

Patrick Kane

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	22	36	58	0.83

There was so much fascination with how Patrick Kane was going to perform upon his return to the NHL following hip surgery. With the way Kane performed for Detroit, it highlighted what’s made him one of the best players in NHL history. In 50 games, Kane scored 20 goals and had 27 assists averaging 0.97 points per game, second on the team behind Dylan Larkin in that category. Kane’s performance as a playmaker and distributor was apparent and while he’s not as speedy or quite as agile as he once was, so much of what he did last season was reminiscent of the kind of player he was. Kane was a boon to the Red Wings’ power play and had 15 points on the man advantage including two goals. The Red Wings needed a boost to their offence after it struggled so mightily two seasons ago and Kane helped fulfill that need immediately upon entering the lineup. Kane reunited with former Chicago teammate Alex DeBrincat in Detroit and recaptured that chemistry and likely helped make his entrance to the lineup easier. What’s more impressive is he played most of his five-on-five minutes with J.T. Compher at center instead of Larkin. With that season post-surgery under his belt, it will be interesting to see how Kane handles an 82-game season with full training camp to prepare. At 35 years old, these seasons get tougher, but considering what he’s gone through before, it’ll be hard to ignore him.

Alex DeBrincat

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	28	42	70	0.85

One of the biggest acquisitions the Detroit Red Wings made last summer was the trade that brought Alex DeBrincat into the fold. That they pulled him away from division rival Ottawa was boon enough, but with the way he fit into the Detroit lineup right away, it showed that bringing a guy back to his hometown team can work out great. DeBrincat had 27 goals and 40 assists in 82 games for the Red Wings and teamed up with his old Chicago Blackhawks teammate Patrick Kane to provide a second line with a lot of scoring punch. He proved to be a threat both at even strength and on the power play with 16 goals coming at evens and another 11 on the man advantage. Even though he was an outstanding goal scorer in Chicago and Ottawa, he proved to be a valuable setup man last season. His 40 assists were third most on the team behind Shayne Gostisbehere and Lucas Raymond and given his proficiency at scoring goals, drawing opponents away from teammates and feeding them to score is a good plan. DeBrincat was a universal offensive boost to the lineup. While he was mostly on Larkin’s wing with Lucas Raymond on the other side, when Kane arrived, they teamed up with J.T. Compher often to form a second attacking line. Spreading out the wealth in the lineup was wise because it helped open their attack. With the addition of Vladimir Tarasenko, how coach Derek Lalonde sets his lines bears watching, but you can assume DeBrincat will receive a prime offensive role.

Vladimir Tarasenko

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	17	28	45	0.69

While the Red Wings landed a big fish in free agency last season with Patrick Kane, this summer brought them another former big scoring veteran to strengthen their offence in Vladimir Tarasenko. Tarasenko joins the Red Wings after a season in which he split time between Ottawa and Florida and culminated with winning his second Stanley Cup in five years as part of the Panthers. At 32 years old, Tarasenko is not the hard-firing sniper he was years ago with the St. Louis Blues, but he is still a capable offensive weapon. Between Ottawa and Florida, he had 23 goals 32 assists (55 points) and added another five goals and four assists during the Panthers’ run to the Stanley Cup in 24 games. While on a not-as deep Senators team, he played more than 16 minutes per game, but saw that ice time drop with Florida to under 14 minutes a game. Detroit likely wasn’t planning to bank on riding Tarasenko for big minutes, if he’s able to generate 50 points and 20 goals again getting similar ice time, that would provide a huge lift to their depth scoring. There’s also the possibility he may reunite with Kane (the two played together with the New York Rangers in 2023). Tarasenko is a wicked competitor and showed he’s got some bite to his game to go with the offensive skills regarding mixing it up in scrums. Although he won’t have the same play style as the now departed David Perron, the role may be similar, just with more looks to score.

J.T. Compher

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	19	34	53	0.65

When J.T. Compher arrived in Detroit as a free agent from Colorado last summer, the hope was he would be able to hop right into the lineup in a second line center role and give the Red Wings a different look from what Dylan Larkin provided on the first line. Compher’s more defensive inclinations allowed him to provide balance with wingers who were not as strong in their own end of the ice and that proved to be of great value to the Red Wings with the additions of Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane. What’s more impressive is that Compher’s production didn’t fall off at all coming from the Avalanche. Compher had his best goal scoring season putting up 19 goals along with 29 assists last season and his 48 points missed a career-high by four points despite missing five games. Compher was able to supplant Andrew Copp on the second line and improved the Detroit attack in the process. If there was one area Compher struggled with it was at faceoffs. He won 44.8 percent of his draws which made it a little harder for his line to start with possession. Otherwise, he arrived in Detroit as advertised and produced exactly the way he figured to and that’s about all you can ask for when it comes to free agents. It would seem likely he’ll have Kane back on his line and it’s only a question of whether it’ll be DeBrincat or Vladimir Tarasenko on the other side.

Andrew Copp

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	14	23	37	0.46

When Copp signed with the Red Wings two summers ago, the expectation was that he would use that big offensive season with the Winnipeg Jets and New York Rangers and his naturally strong offensive play to help him return home to Michigan and be the second line center they needed. Instead, his goals dropped from 21 to nine and his point total dropped off by 11. Even worse still, his possession numbers cratered in Detroit. All of this pointed to Copp being a bit over his head in a new role in what’s become a high-pressure situation as the Red Wings attempt to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. With J.T. Compher’s addition last summer, Copp was able to slide into a role as the third line center and although his point totals fell again, his goal total went up. He had 13 goals and 20 assists, and his average ice time dropped to just over 16 minutes, down from 18. His possession numbers remained the same, however, with a five-on-five shot attempt percentage just below 45 percent. Those aren’t the kinds of results a team wants from guys in a more defensive role and that must improve if Detroit is going to be a true playoff threat this season. Ideally, an improvement in shot metrics and a boosted offensive output would go a long way for both Copp and the Red Wings and with three years left on his contract, it’s necessary.

Michael Rasmussen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	12	22	34	0.44

When the Red Wings selected Michael Rasmussen in the first round of the 2017 draft, the hope was that he would develop into a powerful scoring forward that used his size to create havoc around the net. While that hasn’t happened in the NHL, the 6-foot-6, 220 pound forward has made a home for himself in the bottom six of the lineup. In 75 games last season, Rasmussen had 13 goals and 20 assists while also delivering 124 hits and 76 blocked shots. Playing a physical game helps him stand out amongst his Red Wings teammates as they’re not really an overly physical team up front in the first place. Among forwards, Rasmussen was second in hits behind Christian Fischer and tops in shots blocked. Every team needs role players and for Detroit, Rasmussen’s contributions are abundantly clear. The downside to playing that style of hockey can come in the form of poor shot metrics and that’s certainly the case for Rasmussen whose shot attempt and shot quality percentages at five-on-five are below 44 percent. That’s not ideal, but the hope is that a deeper group at forward will be able to help improve those numbers. Whether he’s on the third or fourth line, he’s out there to play the heavy.

Joseph Veleno

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	12	19	31	0.39

Entering his fifth NHL season, Joseph Veleno has locked himself into a role in Detroit’s bottom six forward group in a checking role but one with his junior hockey scoring instincts still intact. Veleno had 12 goals and 16 assists in 80 games last season while he averaged fewer than 14 minutes per game. Detroit’s third and fourth lines functioned as a kind of change-up from their far more offensively talented first and second lines and Veleno leaned into that delivering 108 hits. Those numbers were down a touch from his previous two seasons with 123 and 156 hits respectively, but the uptick in offence was certainly welcomed. Veleno’s 28 points set a new career high for him and that included a bit of action on the power play where he scored three goals. If the situation and contracts were different, Veleno could challenge Andrew Copp for a spot centering the third line, but considering each player produces roughly similar results it’s more of a toss-up between which guy is going more. Like everyone else lower in the lineup, Veleno needs to help improve the shot differential numbers and give their goaltenders more of a break. If his evolution as more of a defensive forward improves, it could go a long way to helping the Red Wings.

DEFENCE

Moritz Seider

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	11	45	56	0.68

As the Red Wings’ No. 1 defenceman as well as their youngest member, the expectations set upon Moritz Seider are, indeed, lofty. After he won the Calder Trophy in 2022, the hope was he would build upon that outstanding 50-point season and lean a little more into his offensive game. However, he’s posted 42 points in each of the past two seasons but set a career high in goals last season with nine. Some of the offensive responsibilities were taken off his plate last season by Shayne Gostisbehere, but with Gostisbehere gone to Carolina and Jake Walman traded to San Jose, the need for Seider to better embrace his offensive game is immediate. Fortunately, he’s leaned into using his size more often. He led Detroit in hits (211) and blocked shots (212) and his 22:22 played per game was the most on the team as well. That’s just part of what’s expected out of a No. 1 defenceman who at 6-foot-3, 205 pounds can change a game by playing to his size. What’s somewhat concerning was the dip in Seider’s five-on-five possession numbers. Team-wide those statistics weren’t great and indicative of why Detroit missed the postseason, but Seider’s shot attempt and shot quality percentages were the lowest of his career. Given his workload, those numbers must improve if Detroit is going to be a serious playoff contender.

Ben Chiarot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	4	14	18	0.24

Much of what’s been asked of Ben Chiarot since he signed with the Red Wings two summers ago has happened. He was asked to be a physical player who blocks shots and leans into being every bit of a defensive defenceman. Last season, he had more blocked shots (167) than hits (163) and was among the team leaders in time played on the penalty kill. There was a downside, however. At five-on-five, Chiarot was on the ice for the second most shot attempts against behind Moritz Seider as Chiarot faced 27 fewer shot attempts. The issue there is Seider played nearly 39 more minutes than Chiarot did. His shot attempt percentage at five-on-five was lowest among defencemen at 43.6. Being a defenceman is somewhat like being a shot sponge, but to that degree is not something any coach would like to see. Chiarot scored five goals and had 15 assists last season, his fourth season with 20 or more points and he kept the penalty minutes down to a respectable 56. Much is asked of Chiarot considering he averaged nearly 20 minutes per game (19:47) but it stands to reason Detroit might be better off if his role was more specialized situationally. Instead, it’s lining up that he’ll be a fixture in their top four group on the blue line again.

Erik Gustafsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	7	28	35	0.45

With the departure of Shayne Gostisbehere to Carolina in free agency, the Red Wings needed a puck moving defenceman with strong offensive instincts. That’s a role Erik Gustafsson was made to fill. Last season with the New York Rangers, Gustafsson generally paired with Jacob Trouba to be a counterpart to his physical defensive style of play on the Rangers second pairing. He had six goals and 25 assists, nine on the power play, in helping the Rangers to the Eastern Conference Final against Florida. Throughout his career, Gustafsson has been an offensive specialist on the blue line with the ability to move the puck through all three zones and make good decisions on passes. That ability will be desperately needed for the Red Wings who, outside of Moritz Seider, don’t really have a defenceman who can do that especially well. Although he’s not an overly strong defensive player, the Red Wings have a few other guys who specialize in playing that way. Depending on who Gustafsson is paired with, be it Olli Maatta or perhaps rookie Simon Edvinsson, his job will be to be the puck mover and offensive catalyst from the back end. If he can tap into what made him nearly a 50-point player six seasons ago in Chicago, that would be a huge bonus. But should he remain steady as a 25-to-35-point player, that’ll do just fine.

Jeff Petry

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	5	22	27	0.36

Veteran Jeff Petry returned home to Michigan last season after a pair of offseason trades going from Pittsburgh to Montreal as part of the Erik Karlsson three-way trade and then from Montreal to Detroit for Gustav Lindstrom. His addition was meant to give the Red Wings a solid veteran with a good shot and someone who could help contribute to the power play. In 73 games, Petry scored three goals and had 21 assists last season and averaged nearly 19 minutes of ice time per game. Shayne Gostisbehere’s presence prevented Petry from seeing power play time and he played 17 minutes with the man advantage as Detroit opted for Gostisbehere’s more offensive instincts and quicker feet over Petry and his heavy shot. Defensively, Petry struggled. At five-on-five, he had the second lowest shot attempt percentage among defencemen at 44.6 but had a slightly better shot quality percentage of 47.1, fourth best among defencemen. As it is, he’s a third pairing defenceman and, ideally, his presence on a playoff team would come in handy given his experience in the league. Asking more of him now may be asking a lot, but with the lack of major additions to the blue line this summer, Petry will be counted on to be a bigger contributor.

GOAL

Alex Lyon

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
32	17	12	3	1	0.903	2.93

Cam Talbot

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
44	23	17	4	2	0.904	2.88

If Cam Talbot felt bitter about the fact that the Ottawa Senators failed to shore him up with a contract renewal at the start of last season, he certainly didn't let it show in his play with the Los Angeles Kings - and as a result, he earned himself that coveted security in the form of a new multi-year deal for the Detroit Red Wings during this summer's free agency period. That could mean new and exciting things for the Red Wings, who have hopefully put their bottomed-out years firmly in the rearview mirror and look poised to take a step back towards potential wild card contention. Talbot brings the perfect amount of veteran experience to tandem with either Alex Lyon, who is heading into the second year of his own two-year stint with the Atlantic team, or Ville Husso, who comes with a fairly high price tag but an underperforming stat line last season. It's a three-goalie stare down heading into the new season, and there's no clear-cut option for who should get the lion's share of the starts.

If it feels like the Red Wings have cycled through an above-average number of goaltenders the last few years, that's because they have; rather than gambling on big-money free agents, they've opted to plug-and-play with cheaper, short-term but high-upside options while sitting outside their next prime window. And Talbot, while a steadying presence in net with some life left in his game, likely isn't set to be their next big thing, either. Signing him, though, signals that the Red Wings are still content to wait for Sebastian Cossa to finish developing - and the signal that they don't plan to rush him is yet another praise-worthy sign from the team that might be poised to make some noise next year.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – DETROIT RED WINGS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 12:00:30 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - FEBRUARY 28: Detroit Red Wings Center Dylan Larkin (71) applies pressure on the forecheck during first period National Hockey League action between the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators on February 28, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

Review: The Red Wings missed the playoffs for six consecutive campaigns prior to 2022-23 and the latest season was more of the same. There was a chance that Ville Husso, acquired from St. Louis in the summer of 2022, would help, but he ended up posting a 26-22-7 record, 3.11 GAA and .896 save percentage in 56 starts. What makes that worse is Detroit ranked 10th in five-on-five expected goals against (164.53), so the defense was doing its part. Not that a stellar performance from Husso would have necessarily saved the season, given how thin the Red Wings’ forward core was. Dylan Larkin was by far Detroit’s top scorer with 32 goals and 79 points, but he was the only player to reach the 25-goal mark and, along with David Perron, one of just two with at least 50 points. Detroit finished with a 35-37-10 record, tying its current playoff drought with the longest in franchise history.

What’s Changed? Detroit’s top-six forward core looks a lot stronger after acquiring Alex DeBrincat from Ottawa and signing J.T. Compher. Detroit also inked James Reimer, who is coming off a rough campaign with San Jose, but has traditionally been an above average backup goaltender. The addition of defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and Jeff Petry further boosts a defense that was underrated in 2022-23.

What would success look like? The Atlantic Division is going to be a tough one, but there is a path here for Detroit to make the playoffs, albeit likely in a Wild Card spot. DeBrincat and Compher should give Larkin the help he sorely missed last year. It won’t be enough to make Detroit’s offense good, but it might at least be enough to make it less of a liability. Husso is still a big X-Factor, but the addition of Reimer might take some of the pressure off him and, when combined with the Red Wings’ great blueliner group, it might be sufficient.

What could go wrong? Detroit’s making a big bet on Compher, but other than his 52-point showing in 2022-23, he’s never even reached 35 points, so he might be a swing and a miss for the Red Wings. Petry is another potentially nice get, but he’ll turn 36 in December and missed 21 games last season, so he might disappoint too. Then there’s the goaltending, which might be what sinks this squad. Detroit is counting on not just Husso bouncing back, but Reimer too. Given how stiff the competition will be for a playoff spot, if any of those potential problems on their own might be enough to deny the Red Wings a postseason berth.

Top Breakout Candidate: The one player we didn’t address who could end up making a huge impact for Detroit is Lucas Raymond. He showed a lot of promise in his rookie campaign, scoring 23 goals and 57 points in 82 contests, but then regressed in 2022-23, settling for 17 goals and 45 points in 74 games. Taken with the fourth overall pick in the 2020, the stage is set for the 21-year-old to step up and take his place alongside Larkin and DeBrincat as one of the Red Wings’ offensive leaders.

Forwards

Dylan Larkin - C

The Red Wings captain solidified his legacy in Detroit when he signed an eight-year, $69.6 million extension in March and the captain will look to bring them out of the darkness and back into the postseason. Larkin led the Red Wings in goals (32) and points (79) and that he did that shouldn’t come as any surprise. He’s their best player and it’s why they had to get him signed to an extension. Yes, things have been grim in Motor City since they last made the playoffs in 2016, but the 27-year-old center has been the consistent reason for hope for the future. It was the third time he’s scored 30-or-more goals in his Red Wings career as well as the third time he scored at nearly a point per game pace (he also did in 2018-19 and 2021-2022). Now that he’s locked up for eight more years and GM Steve Yzerman has been beyond aggressive in trying to get back to the playoffs the past two off-seasons, the pressure is very much on Larkin’s shoulders to help put them over the top to get back there. Larkin was a rookie on the last Red Wings playoff team so he knows what it’s like to be there and he’s surrounded by veterans who have done so with other teams, but a repeat performance of last season would go a long way to helping make that dream a reality.

Alex DeBrincat - LW

The Red Wings’ biggest acquisition outside of the NHL Draft the past few seasons came in the form of two-time 40-goal scorer Alex DeBrincat. That they swung a trade with division rival Ottawa to land him and by all appearances look to have won that trade is a substantial coup on their part. Last season with the Senators, DeBrincat had 27 goals and 66 points, good for fourth on the team. For as questionable of a statistic plus-minus is, DeBrincat’s minus-31 rating was second lowest on the Senators, but defense isn’t exactly why Detroit brought him on board. He’s a goal scorer through and through having potted 187 goals in six seasons (450 games) with Chicago and Ottawa. That he’s coming off a down season with Ottawa may have kept his trade price down, although the Red Wings signed him to a four-year, $31.5 million extension after the trade. DeBrincat’s addition ideally gives the Red Wings a much-needed offensive injection as they scored the ninth fewest goals in the NHL last season. A return to 40-goal form would give Detroit a much more potent attack, something they’ll need to keep up with the rest of the contenders within the Atlantic Division. Teaming him up with Dylan Larkin should provide the spark needed to do just that.

David Perron - RW

When it comes to players who understand their role and excel at it, David Perron is right up there as one of the best. Perron plays a hard, competitive brand of hockey and does well around the net in tight spaces to generate scoring opportunities. He’s also very good at matching up physically and sticking up for himself and his teammates. Most of all, he’s the picture of consistency. At 34 years old, Perron was second on the Red Wings in goals with 24 and scoring with 56 points. While it may not have been ideal for Detroit to have Perron be No. 2 for them in those categories, the fact that he was and did quite well at his age says a lot about how good he’s been for them. For seven straight seasons, Perron has had 46-or-more points and he’s scored 20-or-more goals in four of them. Perron was brought to Detroit for his veteran wiles and the edge he can provide come playoff time…which hasn’t happened yet, but for now he’s providing their bevy of younger players a daily example of what it takes to have success in the NHL.

Lucas Raymond - RW

Raymond has been an outstanding scorer since he landed in the NHL in 2021-2022 after being the fourth overall pick in 2020. In two seasons he’s put up 40 goals and 102 points in 156 games, but his output last season was down from his rookie campaign. He had 12 fewer points in eight fewer games played last year, which is slightly concerning as his slightly down possession stats at 5-on-5. What’s also concerning is that Raymond’s numbers struggled with Dylan Larkin, but Larkin saw far better success away from Raymond. That was also the case during Raymond’s rookie season, however, those two played almost exclusively together at 5-on-5 then, that wasn’t the case last season. Raymond finished tied for third on the Red Wings in scoring last season with Dominik Kubalik. With Kubalik off to Ottawa in the Alex DeBrincat trade, there’s a good possibility Raymond winds up on a line with Larkin and DeBrincat which should improve all three players’ statistics together. At 21 years old, it’s too early to be fretting about Raymond’s numbers especially given that Detroit continues to add better talent around him. But he will need to improve overall for Detroit to have a shot at making the postseason, particularly since the teams they’ll be battling against all have made moves to also either get into or stay in the playoffs.

J.T. Compher - C

Although the Detroit-Colorado rivalry is long since dormant, it’s still fascinating to see players go from one team to the other and J.T. Compher joining the Red Wings after seven seasons with the Avalanche certainly qualifies. Compher, who played college hockey at the University of Michigan, heads back to his adopted home state after scoring 88 goals and 194 points in 423 career games in Denver. It was Compher’s two-way game that piqued the Red Wings’ interest in him and his versatility to play both center and the wing gives him a utility knife quality for their lineup. Ideally, Compher slides in as the center on the second line behind Dylan Larkin and ahead of Andrew Copp. Throughout his career, Compher has had decent 5-on-5 possession numbers as well as strong expected goal percentages. Having those kinds of advanced numbers made him a valuable player for teams in search of strong depth who can play well defensively and contribute enough on offense. That kind of description fits Compher well although it should be noted he’s coming off a career-year with 51 points. He’s regularly been a 20–30-point scorer before that. At 28 years old, this is who Compher is as his development days are long over, but the Red Wings will hope he hasn’t seen the end of his higher-scoring years just yet particularly after signing him to a five-year, $25.5 million deal.

Andrew Copp - C

Detroit signing J.T. Compher came at a curious time particularly since they’d just signed Andrew Copp a year ago to do essentially the same kind of thing in the same position to virtually the exact same contract (5 years, $28.125 million). Copp’s first year back home in Michigan saw him pick up where he left off the previous year with Winnipeg and the New York Rangers. His nine goals and 42 points were solid, and his 42-point output the second best of his career. Although his goal output dipped slightly, it’s his two-way game that makes him a fixture in the lineup and that suffered a bit last season. Copp’s advanced numbers dropped, including possession and expected goals at 5-on-5. For him and the Red Wings to have success that cannot be the norm and might be a reason why a similar style player in Compher was added to help shoulder the burden a bit in the middle of the lineup. A stronger overall team performance would have an effect there as well, but it’s up to Copp to do his part too. He played most of his 5-on-5 minutes with Lucas Raymond and David Perron which at first blush doesn’t seem like an ideal mix. With the additions of Compher and Alex DeBrincat, coach Derek Lalonde will have interesting choices to make to get a better mix with his forwards.

Michael Rasmussen - RW

Injuries are never kind and they’re almost always cruel and such was the case for Michael Rasmussen last season. A shot to the kneecap sidelined him for the season in late February and it came while he was in the middle of a breakout season of sorts. In 56 games, the 6’6” 210-pound forward put up 10 goals and a career high 29 points. On top of the improved point production, Rasmussen saw improved possession and shot quality and prevention advanced numbers as well. At 23 years old, it was the kind of improvement everyone in Detroit was excited to see occurring. After all, with a player his size improving in those ways makes him more valuable to them overall. Being big is one thing, but being big and able to help produce offense more efficiently is something else entirely. It’s why the Red Wings hope that a full return to health will lead to him picking up where he left off. If he can do that with the host of new players they’ve added this offseason, Detroit’s hope is they’ll have someone capable of getting heavily into the physical mix come playoff time when the goals are a little harder to score and having a player that can screen goalies and push opponents around comes in much handier.

Jonatan Berggren - LW

Berggren’s arrival to the Detroit lineup last season showed why they took him in the second round in the 2018 Draft. He scored 15 goals and had 28 points in 67 games during his rookie season last year. The Swedish winger seized a role in the lineup with his offensive skill and even carved a spot on the power play scoring five times on the man advantage with nine points total. What’s most impressive about Berggren’s output is he was able to do it down in the Red Wings lineup. He wasn’t playing top-six minutes with their better scorers, he played most of his 5-on-5 minutes with forwards like Joe Veleno and Austin Czarnik before he was elevated to join Andrew Copp and David Perron. Now at 23 years old and having shown he can produce at the NHL level, he’ll be counted on to provide consistent scoring in the middle-six forward group from the wing and could find a home alongside free agent addition J.T. Compher. Berggren has versatility, however, and can slide in at center when needed. It’s that kind of flexibility that further makes him valuable in the Red Wings lineup and will help him earn more ice time.

Klim Kostin - LW

During the Stanley Cup Playoffs, no one player was able to make their mark and increase their value the way Klim Kostin did with the Edmonton Oilers. Kostin used his size and physical style of play to muck things up along the boards and in the middle of the ice to open the offense for his teammates and himself. Kostin had a breakout regular season with 10 goals and 21 points in the regular season and followed that up with three goals and two assists in 12 playoff games with the Oilers. Kostin is a classic grind line kind of player who uses his checking and size (6’3” 215) to disrupt opponents. In 57 games last season he had 157 hits and that’s the kind of rate that will get you noticed no matter what. After three years with St. Louis, they traded him to Edmonton where the Oilers gave him a chance and he ran with it. It’s that brand of go-getter that attracted Detroit to acquire him in a trade and days later sign him to a two-year contract. It’s another signing that shows how the Red Wings want to be able to line up should they get to the postseason. They want to have skill and goal scoring at the top of the lineup with a mix of size, strength, and grit in their lower lines. Adding an eager player like Kostin to the mix makes a lot of sense to that end, but with the high amount of skill within the division it remains to be seen if being overly physical will provide some kind of edge or cause other problems to pop up.

Defense

Moritz Seider - D

Being the best defenseman on a below-average team can be a bit of a slog, even if you’re 21 years old and brilliant like Moritz Seider. The young German phenom and 2022 Calder Trophy winner didn’t necessarily have a sophomore slump but instead got the chance to deal with the rest of the league after they’ve had a chance to study him… and he was still very good. Seider’s point production fell from 50 points in his rookie season to 42 last year. He was the Red Wings minutes leader and averaged just more than 23 minutes of ice time per game. It’s a massive workload for a player so new to the league, but he’s the best the Red Wings have on the blue line, particularly after they traded Filip Hronek to Vancouver at the trade deadline. Everything Seider does and can do more is superb. It would be easy to get wound up about his advanced stats last season, but most every Detroit player’s advanced numbers suffered in general last season. Ideally you want to see his possession and expected goal numbers improve year to year, but the Red Wings haven’t been very good. His numbers are better than most everyone else’s on the team which indicates how well he can play, but compared to others around the league they don’t stand out. If Detroit improves, it will certainly show in Seider’s numbers across the board. But the key is that Detroit does improve, or else arguments will persist as to how good Seider is or isn’t.

Jake Walman - D

There may have been no bigger surprise in Detroit than the play of Jake Walman on defense. The Red Wings acquired Walman from St. Louis in a trade in March 2022 that involved Nick Leddy and Oskar Sundqvist among others. While Walman wasn’t the player of note then, how he performed for Detroit last season changed that discussion substantially. Walman paired with Moritz Seider and the two became virtually inseparable because of how well they worked together. Their 5-on-5 possession numbers were a level 50 percent, and they had an expected goal percentage above that mark. For a team that bled goals and didn’t score a lot of them, that’s outstanding and Walman excelled. He set career highs in goals (nine) and points (18) all while averaging the most ice time of his career at 19:43 per game. It’d be easy enough to say that playing with Seider likely did a lot to help him out, but Walman did a lot to help settle Seider’s game down as well. An upper-body injury hampered his season and held him to 63 games. It also prevented him from playing in World Championships during the summer. Still, Walman’s play was strong enough to earn a three-year extension from the Red Wings worth $10.2 million. Going from fighting to get into the Blues lineup to being on the top pairing in Detroit is a heck of a turn around and a great find for the Red Wings.

Shayne Gostisbehere - D

Something that was missing from the Detroit blue line in the wake of the Filip Hronek trade was a tried-and-true puck mover. Free agency helped them fix that need with ease when they signed free agent Shayne Gostisbehere. The “Ghost Bear” split last season with Arizona and Carolina and had 13 goals and 41 points. Piling up points has never been an issue for the 30-year-old Floridian. In nine seasons he has 311 points in 538 games including 87 goals. He’s been a steady possession player and he played extremely well for Carolina in an abbreviated stay there after the trade deadline. What he does best is move the puck up the ice and create offense and even with the loaded mix of defensemen in Detroit, Gostisbehere will be able to take that role and run with it in a big way. It should also allow him to see power play time as well and perhaps give Moritz Seider a bit of a break, so he doesn’t always have to be the guy doing the heavy lifting in that aspect. Gostisbehere will also duel with Jeff Petry for power play time on the first or second unit. Although Petry has years on him, Gostisbehere is a quicker skater and capable of getting into and out of trouble a bit faster. Although he won’t do much on the physical side of the game, that’s not what they need him to do the most. They need him to help bring the puck up the ice and set up the forwards for better scoring opportunities.

Jeff Petry - D

Well, this is awkward. Just a year after Petry requested a trade out of Montreal and was moved to Pittsburgh, the Canadiens reacquired him as part of the three-team deal that sent Erik Karlsson to the Penguins. It was a short stop, however, as he was then moved home (Petry was born in Ann Arbor) to the Detroit Red Wings. Even at his age, Petry is a valuable two-way defenseman who can comfortably serve in a top pairing role. He’s averaged over 22 minutes in each of his last seven campaigns, including last season with Pittsburgh, during which he logged 22:21 of ice time per game (2:20 with the man advantage and 2:22 shorthanded). He knows how to play physically without crossing the line too often, contributing 190 hits and just 24 PIM last season, and he’s perfectly happy to block shots, finishing with over 100 in each of his last two campaigns. The Michigan native isn’t one of the league’s top blueliners offensively, but he’s more than serviceable in that regard, having finished 2022-23 with five goals and 31 points in 61 contests, making it the fifth time in the last six years that the defenseman has enjoyed a points per game pace of over 0.5. The biggest issue is that he’s run into some injury troubles lately, missing 35 contests over the last two seasons and, considering his age, things might only get worse from here. But the Red Wings needed some help offensively on the blue line and going back home might re-invigorate Petry enough to give Detroit a lift.

Goaltender

Ville Husso - G

It really seemed like the Detroit Red Wings had done all the right things with their rebuild – down to their decision to capitalize on a few teams wanting to open up some space in the goaltending department by picking up a pair of young up-and-comers in Alex Nedeljkovic and Ville Husso. Husso, in particular, had just wrapped up a season in which he’d ousted former standout starter Jordan Binnington from his reign as number one for the St. Louis Blues; he appeared to be the perfect piece of the puzzle for the Red Wings as they hoped to take their rebuild and ease it out of the garage for a test run.

Instead, both Husso and Nedeljkovic floundered almost from the start. The pair failed to hit the .900 unadjusted save percentage threshold on the year, with Husso in particular struggling to find his rhythm and own his depth management behind a team that desperately needed to establish some defensive consistency. Now, he’s back to see if he can shake off last year’s struggles – but instead of pairing with another youngster without a ton of NHL experience, Husso will get a veteran voice known for being a locker room superglue in James Reimer. Reimer has struggled with injuries over the last few seasons, so it’s hard to imagine Detroit isn’t looking at him as a stabilizing presence for Husso while the younger Finnish netminder continues to serve as their true number one. After all, his strong skating style and willingness to assert control in the blue paint should be a good recipe for success behind a young roster for Detroit. If things falter again this year, though, the Red Wings might have to consider whether or not Husso was as savvy of a pickup as they’d hoped.

NHL: SZNAJDER – Defenseman moved at the NHL deadline – Puck-movers, retrievers and roster reshuffling

Corey Sznajder — Fri, 10 Mar 2023 15:52:26 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 01: Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Mattias Ekholm (14) in his first game as an Oilers defends his zone in the first period of the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Toronto Maple Leads on March 1, 2023 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

The trade deadline always brings out some interesting team philosophies. Sometimes it’s as simple as getting the best player available like the Devils getting Timo Meier or Toronto adding Ryan O’Reilly with the Blues falling out of the playoff race early. Then there’s those moves around the margins that look like depth adds at first glance but can really payoff in the post-season. Vegas adding Ivan Barbashev to bolster their forward depth being a good example of that.

It's always interesting to see which players teams target at the deadline and what skillsets they value heading into a playoff run. This is especially true with defensemen, which is probably the biggest game of “choose your own adventure” in hockey. Good team defense is more about having all five players dialed in and understanding their assignments, but the two blue liners are always going to shoulder more of the burden even if it’s not always their fault. This is where teams run into problems at the deadline.

Everyone wants to add defensemen, but there’s a bigger risk of not getting what you bargained for when you’re taking someone from a different system and making him play 20+ minutes a night in high leverage situations. Sometimes you get situations like Ben Chiarot on the Florida Panthers last year, where a defenseman who is more suited to patrol the front of the net and deliver hits is playing in a system where most of the game is played off the rush. It becomes fitting a square peg into a round hole and becomes a part of a roster you have to work around instead of playing to your strengths. Compare that to Tampa Bay getting David Savard two years ago, who was mostly asked to kill penalties and play lower in the lineup with Mikhail Sergachev as his safety valve, and it’s a much more natural situation where a player with a specific skillset is filling a certain role.

It’s tough to avoid these pitfalls because everyone looks for different skillsets in defensemen and it becomes more difficult the fill gaps higher in the lineup. A guy who can make a beautiful stretch pass and put up points on the power play might not be suited to play over 20 minutes a night against top lines while the defender who hits hard but struggles to move the puck might hinder your team’s offense. A defender who might be good at defending zone entries could be benefitting from a system that has a tight neutral zone forecheck or help from forwards. It becomes a complicated puzzle that can either win or cost you a playoff series.

Something that most defensemen eventually have to do, though is retrieve the puck. Whether it’s chasing a dump-in, getting it off the wall or freeing the puck for a teammate, clean puck retrievals are how most games are decided. In this study looking at every goal scored in the 2021-22 season, about 65% of five-on-five goals scored off the rush started in the defensive zone, with 32.5% coming off a retrieval against a forecheck. In addition to that, 42% of all five-on-five goals last year were scored off an offensive zone turnover or a retrieval, which shows the importance in this part of the game. Even if you’re not starting a rush, negating a forecheck or flipping possession can be just as important, especially with defending the lead.

Defensemen are always going to be heavily involved in this part of the game regardless of their skillset and it’s where chemistry and complementary skillsets can really make a difference. One defenseman can take the hit while the other makes the play, or one can stand up at the blue line while the other goes back to clear the puck. We can start to see the value of things like “making a good first pass” or “making the forwards job easier.” Few players demonstrate this better than Edmonton Oilers deadline pickup Matthias Ekholm:

A mainstay in Nashville for years, he’s had a pretty thankless role of soaking up some of the tougher minutes so that Roman Josi can spend as much time as possible way from forecheck pressure and in the offensive zone. He’s part of the newer wave of shutdown defensemen who use their skating, their reach and their agility to kill plays before they start (although he will block a lot of shots if he has to). He is one of the few that’s the complete package, because he could put up zero points and still bring you some value with how strong he is along the wall with killing plays.

The first clip shows what the Oilers are probably going to see the most reward from. Ekholm’s very good at taking the puck from a dead stop and making long, quick passes out of the zone to either lead the rush or flip possession. It might have more of a reward in Edmonton with McDavid on the receiving end of those passes than Nashville’s forward corps, so it’s easy to see the potential upside here. The other side of this is how good he is at drawing defenders to him and getting rid of the puck right as they’re about to check him. Using that strong upper-body to absorb contact and bait defenders into being over-aggressive on the forecheck.

The puck skill, however, is where the Oilers can reap the most value out of him. Their blue line isn’t bad but doesn’t have a lot of great passers out of the zone. This is where Ekholm might be able to add a dimension to the Oilers offense. Everyone knows how good McDavid is, but Ekholm getting him the puck could make it less of a one-man show and more of a quick-strike. Whether it can work in the playoffs remains to be seen, but Ekholm should be able to help Edmonton’s top guns catch other teams off line changes and work together in the offensive zone a little more than they do now. Tyson Barrie gave them some of that but was limited to a power play specialist after a while because he’s best as the second player in the rush rather than the one starting it.

Here we see both sides of what Ekholm can do for Edmonton’s transition game. He’s aggressive with how he defends the blue line, using his skates and his reach to kill plays and he’s very good at getting back to retrieve the puck himself to start the rush. This is a skill the Oilers don’t really have on their blue line right now and it’s not particularly easy to find either. The other thing is how he can cover for his partner struggling to get the puck out of the zone, in this case he rescues a botched exit from young Phillip Broberg to help the Oilers get out of the zone cleanly. He’s capable of playing both sides and making plays from awkward positions, so you can see how this was a perfect fit for Edmonton. Ekholm is going to be asked to stay back more times than not, but he’s such a good passer and a smart player that it shouldn’t negate his skillset.

With Ekholm, the fit with the Oilers is clear. It’s not as easy with some other teams, namely the Toronto Maple Leafs who completely shuffled the deck on their blue line. Out goes Rasmus Sandin, in comes Luke Schenn, Jake McCabe and Erik Gustafsson. Toronto has been trying to find a winning formula in the playoffs for ages and they are no short of options with nine defensemen currently on the roster. The big move is essentially replacing Sandin with McCabe, as Schenn and Gustafsson are likely just role players for now (although it’s nice to have NHLers waiting in the wings if injuries strike).

Players like McCabe are probably the toughest to get a read on if you don’t watch them every night. He has the reputation as a minute-eater, spending most of his career playing a top-four role on bad Buffalo and Chicago teams but he’s one of those players that’s more like a Rorschach Test for hockey fans because he spends so much time in his own zone. Some appreciate his skill while others focus on the mistakes. What is interesting is Leafs GM Kyle Dubas mentioned his puck-moving as a skill they valued in addition to his competitiveness. Basically, filling the Jake Muzzin role of a sizeable defenseman who isn’t a butcher with the puck.

Every team could use a player like that in theory, but what do the puck retrieval stats say and how does it work in the context of the Leaf’s defense?

So, this kind of backs up what Dubas is saying. McCabe’s very capable with the puck, he just struggled when he had to be the one going back to retrieve it. He was also pretty good at mitigating damage off the rush on a bad Chicago team, so that should bode well. This is also where he’s stood out the most in his first couple of games with the Leafs and you can see some of the qualities Dubas talked about.

McCabe isn’t going to totally kill the play when the rush is happening at full speed, but he’s engaging enough to disrupt Grade A scoring chances. The puck has to go through a couple of layers before it gets to the net and the Toronto goalies are only going to have to square up to one shot if he plays everything perfectly. You can also see him going for contact whenever a forward touches the puck and always looking for something to do to make the cycle harder instead of just patrolling the front of the net. The only downside is that Brodie might have to shoulder the burden with getting to pucks if McCabe is always going to be chasing the play, but it’s only been a few games so he should have time to adapt.

It’s an interesting playstyle for a defenseman more known for blocking shots because he’s more of the secondary/support mold than someone who’s going to be the first one back to take a hit. How he fits into Toronto’s depth chart is a little more encouraging.

If there’s a positive here, it’s that Toronto isn’t short on defenseman who can retrieve the puck. Brodie has been one of the better players in the league at this for most of his career and this is probably where McCabe ends up slotting long-term. Whether it’s a true shutdown pair or a duo that’s just soaking up defensive minutes remains to be seen, but the complementary skillsets appear to be there on paper. The rest of the lineup might be a bit of trial and error for Toronto. It seems like they’re putting a lot of faith in Justin Holl to continue being Morgan Rielly’s safety valve as Timothy Liljegren and Mark Giordano give them some decent puck-moving on the third pair. McCabe-Brodie could end up playing more of a factor than they pictured in another month.

What’s interesting is that Sandin brought some of the same qualities to the Leafs, but Toronto might value McCabe’s size and tenacity more in the playoffs. Teams are looking for whatever edge they can in the playoffs and the Leafs top priority seemed to be focused around building a pure shutdown pair with some puck-moving capabilities. They lose some passing skill with Sandin leaving, but maybe they saw that as a luxury and wanted more of an aggressive defender who can make a quick 10–15-foot pass instead than someone who is going to skate his way out of trouble. Whether or not this pays off depends if McCabe’s struggles in retrieving pucks is more from playing on a bad Chicago team than his own skill deteriorating. There’s also some value in minimizing damage when you can’t get to pucks or are up against a tough forecheck. That seems to be where McCabe will have the most value.

Retrievals are one area of the game you can’t really hide from, so it will be interesting to see how this works in action come April. Toronto is putting a lot of faith in blending complementary skillsets together without one star and their postseason fate is going to heavily depend on how their defense holds up in this area.

Stats are from allthreezones.com

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – DETROIT RED WINGS – NHL Player Profiles

Joe Yerdon – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 23:48:39 +0000

DETROIT, MI - SEPTEMBER 22: Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider (53) takes a shot during the second period of a preseason game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Detroit Red Wings on September 22, 2019, at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI. (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Dylan Larkin

At 26 years old, Larkin has seen a lot of losing in the first seven seasons of his career, but now he’s in the prime years of his career and this year’s Red Wings team is poised to be the best team he’s been on as a pro. Larkin’s points per 60 minutes played in 2021-2022 was the best of his career (3.0) and he led the Red Wings in goals (31) and points (69). Those marks are each second best to marks he set in 2018-2019 (32 goals, 71 assists). Larkin is Detroit’s best player at 5-on-5 when it comes to Corsi (49.3 percent) and expected goals percentage at nearly 50 percent (49.97). Not enough good things happen for Detroit, but when they do happen, chances are Larkin is involved. The Red Wings captain drives the team and the similarities to how he and current GM Steve Yzerman have had in the first few years of their careers is a bit spooky. Both named captain at a young age, both the best player on an underachieving/poor team and now the question for Larkin is can he be the best on a team coming out of the darkness and back into the playoff light.

Tyler Bertuzzi

It was a career year for Tyler Bertuzzi in 2021-2022. He finished with 30 goals and 62 points in 68 games, both second to Dylan Larkin for team best marks. Bertuzzi did miss time due to COVID-19 issues from being unvaccinated. He missed five games in December because of protocols and any games in Canada as well. As a nearly a point per-game player, any time missed leaves a big hole in the lineup. His play is a typical power forward style, a skill shot, aggressive towards the net, and physical. He provided an element on his line with Larkin and rookie Lucas Raymond those players don’t necessarily have and helped the Red Wings have a true top scoring line for the first time in a while. The strong play at 5-on-5 is a positive, but Bertuzzi also improved his power play production as well. His six goals with the man-advantage were a career-high and helped Detroit’s team power play improve from 11.4 to 16.3 percent moving from 30 out of 31 teams to 26 out of 32. At 27, Bertuzzi has found his stride. He’s been a consistent high-percentage shooter and being part of a line that’s complete with complementing talent means more should be on the way.

Lucas Raymond

If it hadn’t been for his teammate Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond’s case to win the Calder Trophy would’ve gathered more attention. Raymond tied with four other rookies for second in goal scoring and was third in points behind Michael Bunting and Trevor Zegras. Raymond was third on Detroit in scoring with 57 points (23 goals) behind Larkin and Bertuzzi. What makes for an interesting note about Raymond’s season is that he was outstanding immediately on the power play. He was second on the team in powerplay points (18) behind Seider (21) with five power play goals, tied for second on the team. Unsurprisingly, his possession numbers were virtually equal with linemates Larkin and Bertuzzi as they were the three best on the Red Wings. At 5-foot-11, 182 pounds he has all the telltale traits of a playmaking winger. His hockey IQ is sky high, and his decision-making is equally strong to go with his speed and agility on the ice. If there’s a concern with Raymond it has to do with one of the old-school stats as his plus-minus rating was minus-32, second worst on the team (Nick Leddy was minus-33 before his trade to St. Louis) and fifth worst in the NHL. With expectations being a bit higher for the Red Wings this season, how Raymond handles his sophomore NHL season will be worth watching.

Jakub Vrana

When Jakub Vrana was acquired by Detroit in 2021 from Washington, the Red Wings knew they were getting an instant offensive weapon. The plan of seeing him jump in and light it up with the other young forwards got put on hold for most of last season after a shoulder injury in training camp–followed by surgery–kept him out of action until March. When he returned to action, however, it was clear he was missed. In 26 games, Vrana scored 13 goals (five on the power play) and finished the season with 19 points. Vrana also continued to show he’s not shy about shooting the puck averaging 2.5 shots per game, down from 2.91 with Detroit last season. Even though Vrana has shot a high percentage for his career, he shot an incredible 20 percent in those 26 games and in 37 total games with Detroit he’s at 21.6 percent. Most players don’t fill the net at that kind of rate over a full season and regression is expected, but he takes a lot of shots so even if he comes back more in line with his numbers from Washington (13.1 percent) he’s still going to score a pile of goals. Vrana is 26 years old which puts him right in line age-wise with most of Detroit’s other top forwards. If they all are hitting their peak strides now and doing it together, Detroit’s offense could turn out to be exciting.

Pius Suter

When Detroit added Pius Suter when he wasn’t qualified by the Chicago Blackhawks it seemed like a sneaky-good move and those instincts proved to be true. Suter settled in on Detroit’s second line and proved to be a consistently strong performer. He had 15 goals and 36 points in a complete 82-game season. Comparing his stats from his season in Chicago to last season with Detroit, they’re so close they’re nearly indistinguishable. From Corsi to points scored to points and shots per game they were minimal decimal points apart. You can’t say Detroit didn’t know what they were getting in him at least. But one thing Suter did more than he did in Chicago was play on the penalty kill as he found himself working both sides of the special teams, making him a solid utility knife kind of player. At 26 years old, the Swiss centerman did improve his work at the faceoff dot going from nearly 43 percent to 49 percent with Detroit. What’s worth watching is how Suter adjusts after Detroit adding Andrew Copp to (presumably) work on the second line. Whether he continues with Vrana or teams up with newcomers Dominik Kubalik or David Perron still means he’ll be working with excellent wingers who can add more offense.

Andrew Copp

Of the big free agent signings the Red Wings made in the offseason, Andrew Copp may have been the savviest of the bunch. Copp, a former University of Michigan standout and Ann Arbor native, went back home and his timing couldn’t be better for him to help pull the Red Wings back up the standings. Copp spent the first seven years of his career with Winnipeg and was a deadline day pickup for the Rangers last season. Copp set career-highs in goals (21) and points (53) last year and his move the Rangers helped them advance deeper into the postseason than they’ve been since 2014. What he’ll bring to Detroit is the ability to help his line dominate puck possession and a consistent knack of helping create quality chances (his xG% was above 50 percent with both teams. What’s interesting is for Copp is how he will adjust to having an elevated role. While Copp’s numbers have always been consistently strong, he’s also had ice time comparable to what a third liner would play for most of his career. It’s been more recent he’s earned the added minutes and responsibilities to play a second line role. That’s where he’ll most likely begin as a Red Wing and he’ll have plenty of solid options as wingers whether it’s Filip Zadina, David Perron, or Jakub Vrana. The offensive depth has very suddenly seemed strong and Copp should reap those benefits.

David Perron

Seeing David Perron signing with a team that’s not the St. Louis Blues is startling. All roads (and contracts) during Perron’s career started and ended there. But he’s ventured out of Missouri eastward to Detroit where his mix of forechecking, goal scoring touch around the net, and occasional nastiness provides an element the Red Wings have been lacking the past few seasons. Like a fine wine, Perron has only gotten better (and more consistent) with age. Last season was Perron's best goal-scoring season since 2013-2014 with Edmonton when he scored 28. His 27 goals and 57 points (in 67 games) played right in line with his scoring output the past six seasons in which he’s had 40-or-more points in each. Perron is as good of a player as you could ask for in your middle-six forwards because he can do a little bit of everything well and be a factor on the power play as well. He had 11 goals with the man advantage last season and 26 of his 57 points came on the power play and with how poorly Detroit’s power play has done in recent seasons, Perron will surely help improve it.

Dominik Kubalik

After the good fortune Detroit had in picking up Pius Suter from Chicago after he wasn’t qualified by them, and now Dominik Kubalik–who was also not qualified by the Blackhawks–may wind up being his linemate with the Red Wings. Kubalik, who scored 30 goals in his rookie season in 2019-2020, has 32 goals total in the past two seasons. The biggest reason for the drop off was simple regression. He shot over 19 percent during that 30-goal season, but that number retreated to a more realistic 9-to-10 percent in each of the past two seasons. He’s had steady third line minutes each season and that seems likely to continue with the Red Wings. Detroit’s added lineup depth means Kubalik won’t have to play over his head to produce. Whether he winds up on the second or third line, he’ll be relied upon to help add offense. His stats in all have gone down each season, but Chicago falling down the standings played a role in that. Be it points or possession numbers, they’ve all come back to earth, which is a reason to keep a close eye on his performance with a new group of players. If nothing else, Kubalik can help pick up the Red Wings power play. In all three seasons in Chicago, he was part of their power play unit and 11 of his 62 career goals in Chicago came on the man advantage. If he can give Detroit a lift there, he’ll be worth it just for that.

Oskar Sundqvist

The 28-year-old Swede was acquired by Detroit from St. Louis in the Nick Leddy trade at the deadline last season and was able to make an immediate impression on the team. In 18 games with Detroit, he had four goals and four assists while playing mostly down in the lineup. Sundqvist’s NHL career has been one which he’s spent a lot of time proving himself in the AHL and eventually carving out a steady role as a depth forward. With the Blues, Sundqvist provided a physical element to his game to go along with his grinding style of play. There was a time from 2018 through 2020 when Sundqvist put it together consistently with his mix of offense and physical play that led him to score 26 of his 40 career goals during those two seasons. Sundqvist can do the dirty work with the hits and shot blocking as well. Playing that role in the NHL is never glamorous, but if the success he had late in the season with Detroit carries over, he’ll have a spot in the lineup every night, even if his possession numbers are very poor.

DEFENSE

Moritz Seider

The German rookie was a phenomenon in his first NHL season. Seider was the fifth defenseman since 2000 to win the Calder Trophy. His seven goals and 43 assists (50 points) made him fourth among rookies and fourth on the Red Wings in scoring. The 6-foot-4, 197-pound 21-year-old fit into the NHL seamlessly and was an instant impact player on a Red Wings team that’s been desperately searching for a No. 1 defenseman since Nick Lidstrom retired. Seider was a strong possession player at 5-on-5 considering he played the most minutes and on a below-average team (46.9% CorsiFor). You want those numbers to be better as a No. 1 defenseman, but as a first step it’ll do. Seider was also a dominant force on the power play and led the team with 21 power play points (two goals, 19 assists). Seider’s presence on the man advantage gave what was one of the NHL’s worst performing power plays sorely needed improvement. Seider paired up with Danny DeKeyser most of the season but had improved possession numbers away from him. With DeKeyser gone, who Seider pairs up with will be fascinating. The four defensemen he played the most minutes with are all no longer with the team, meaning whoever winds up with him will have a great opportunity for success.

Filip Hronek

While Seider got most of the attention on the back end, his arrival helped lessen the burden on Filip Hronek to steer the defense. Hronek was still asked to play a lot of time (averaged 22 minutes per game) which meant whenever Seider wasn’t on the ice, chances were great Hronek was. Hronek’s possession numbers slipped to the lowest mark of his career at 5-on-5 (45.7% CorsiFor) but he put up a career-high 38 points (five goals, 33 assists) including seven points on the power play. With Detroit’s defensive unit getting an overhaul in the offseason and new head coach Derek Lalonde, how Hronek is deployed and whom with he’s paired with will be fascinating to watch. Hronek’s rookie season performance set a standard for what kind of player he can be. That season he posted a CF% of nearly 50 percent, the best he’s had in four seasons. Hronek was able to be a better offensive player last season and if Lalonde will push the Red Wings to play like how the Tampa Bay Lightning play, getting Hronek to perform better to his strengths will go a long way to making the Red Wings blue line that much stronger.

Ben Chiarot

Over the past eight seasons, Ben Chiarot has established a reputation as a classic defensive defenseman and it’s because of that he was able to secure a four-year, $19 million contract from the Red Wings. Chiarot has hopped around from Winnipeg, Montreal, and finally Florida in a deadline deal last season. At 6-foot-3, 226 pounds, he’s a big, physical defender able to use his size to hit opponents as well as get in front of their shots. He’s been a staple on the penalty kill wherever he’s played, and it can be expected he’ll do the same in Detroit. Chiarot is 31 years old which makes the decision to sign him to a four-year contract a bit curious, but GM Steve Yzerman tends to get the benefit of the doubt more often. If Chiarot can bring defensive stability that allows Seider or Hronek the ability to better use their offensive skills to drive play, then it could be considered a savvy (but pricey) move. He’s not an offensive dynamo but can chip in with about 20 points per season and for a guy whose main purpose is to hold down opponents, getting even that much offense from him is a bonus.

Olli Maatta

The 28-year-old Finnish defenseman landed in Detroit via free agency, and after he was able to grab headlines in Pittsburgh, he’s settled into the role of a defender in Chicago and Los Angeles that’s there to take care of business in his end. Injuries (and COVID-19) have hampered his career the past few seasons and prevented him from playing a full season (2017-2018 was the last time he played every game). Last season with Kings, Maatta was strong on possession (52.8% CorsiFor) but weak on points (eight in 66 games) while playing a bit more than 18 minutes per game. If his previous seasons are any indication, he will see time on the penalty kill unit, but where he may be most useful is when the game is close late. Maatta’s possession numbers were better than his total 5-on-5 ice time (more than 53% CF). That means when the game is on the line or under fire, Maatta was even better at mainlining possession and producing pressure against opponents. When a player isn’t scoring points in bunches, holding it down in defensive situations or hotly contested moments of the game is just as important. Given that Maatta splits his time evenly between offensive and defensive zone starts, who he winds up pairing with means he’ll be able to hold his own and adapt their game to play with them. Whether it’s with Seider, Hronek, or perhaps rookie Simon Edvinsson, Maatta’s balanced play with a lean towards defense could provide a boost for any of them.

GOALTENDING

Alex Nedeljkovic

The Carolina Hurricanes surprised more than a few people when they cut ties with prospect Alex Nedeljkovic just when it seemed like they needed a talented young up-and-coming goaltender the most. But while his incredibly impressive rookie season numbers were good to wow fans and mystify evaluators of Carolina’s move to send him to Detroit, his sophomore season slump was certainly pronounced enough to warrant consideration that he might be Detroit’s second-best option this year in net – even as their more experienced netminder heading into the upcoming year.

Nedeljkovic is the perfect foil to his new tandem partner in Ville Husso. Where Husso plays a game based on structured movement and rigid lower-body efficiency, Nedeljkovic is a little bit faster and freer; he’s got the reflexes and the speed to catch shooters off guard and make up for his own mistakes, but he lacks the control and finesse to avoid making them in the first place. That worked out perfectly for him when he was playing behind an experienced, playoff-bound Carolina blue line – but left him exposed and less capable of thriving behind the rebuilding Detroit Red Wings, who saw him play a season that was completely comprised of games that either made him look like the next Vezina shoe-in or someone who needed a conditioning stint in the American league. When he was able to get into a rhythm and communicate well with his defense, he was nearly unstoppable – and he posted a whopping 28 quality starts in 59 games as Detroit’s clear starter. But in comparison, he also posted an alarming ten games that qualified as Really Bad Starts, clocking in under an .850 save percentage in a full fifth of the games that he played in his first full season as a starter. Of course, that could easily have been due to the learning curve any young goaltender would face in their first full season handling the lion’s share of the games, and it certainly could have been exacerbated by playing behind a team that still competed more for a lottery standing than for a playoff berth. But while it’s still too early to write him off, it’s worth entering his second year with Detroit prepared to exercise just a little more caution in expressing enthusiasm about his game; he still looks like a good option for the team, just maybe not as their number one.

Projected starts: 35-40

Ville Husso

Just when it seemed like St. Louis had given up on Ville Husso, he emerged during the 2021-22 campaign as the hottest new thing to hit the NHL. Detroit likely hopes that wasn’t a fluke; they’ve brought him on board to tandem with Alex Nedeljkovic, their prior summer’s off-season acquisition from the Carolina Hurricanes.

Detroit has been the poster child for smart rebuilds over the last few seasons, remaining patient with their prospects and peppering their lineup with reliable, steady veterans on good contracts to fill in the gaps their roster still possessed. For the last two seasons, Thomas Greiss was one of those – and now, as the Red Wings look to continue moving forward in their rebuild plan, Husso will take his spot as a fresh face with promise in his game and plenty of mileage left. He was inked to a three-year deal in hopes that he can be a solution for Detroit moving into their future plans, with the Atlantic Division club banking on his game to remain subtly effective without any major setbacks after moving to a new team. It’s tough to tell just how that’s going to go, of course, since Husso seemed to be the last goaltending prospect in St. Louis to finally get his shot – and since his numbers at the AHL level had been mediocre enough for a handful of years to allow him to remain overlooked by teams up until his finally made his all-too-impressive NHL season backup debut. But his style, which relies on a combination of challenging out at the top of his crease and smooth crisp technical skating and positioning, boasts a lot in common with fellow Finnish netminder Antti Raanta; while there may be nothing about his game that screams top-tier talent, there’s nothing about it that looks like it could suffer from a whole lot of variance, either. He may have just been a late bloomer – and for Detroit, that’s a lucky find just in time for their push back into contention.

Projected starts: 45-50

2022 NHL PLAYOFFS: FLORIDA VS. WASHINGTON – Containing high powered Cats attack will be key for Caps

Scott Cullen — Sun, 01 May 2022 13:30:05 +0000

WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 27: Panthers center Aleksander Barkov (16) watches the puck as Capitals left wing Alexander Alex Ovechkin (8) closes in during the Florida Panthers vs. Washington Capitals on November 27, 2019 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

FLORIDA vs. WASHINGTON

The Florida Panthers recorded 120 points this season to win the Presidents’ Trophy and their reward for finishing with the league’s best record is to face a team that posted an even 100 points, the Washington Capitals.

Washington is going to have a hard time containing Florida’s attack, but if the Capitals want to make a series out of this, they will have to find a way. Easier said than done.

Forwards

As the league’s highest scoring team, averaging 4.11 goals per game, the Panthers have an abundance of riches up front. Nine Panthers forwards scored at least 18 goals this season, including Mason Marchment, who had 18 in just 54 games, and Claude Giroux, who finished with 21 goals even though he recorded just three goals in 18 games for the Panthers after he was acquired from Philadelphia.

Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov are top-tier talents, but mixing in Giroux, Marchment, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, Anthony Duclair, and Anton Lundell there is so much skill that the Panthers can afford to send out shift disturbers like Ryan Lomberg, Eetu Luostarinen, and Patric Hornqvist on the fourth line. That exceptional depth makes it really difficult to ever shut down the Panthers and it is why the Capitals are going to have to turn this series into a slog because there is little reason to believe they can compete in a track meet with Florida.

The Capitals are not equipped to outgun the Panthers, especially if Alex Ovechkin is not healthy to start the series. While Ovechkin had another monster season, scoring 50 goals, he was the only Washington player with more than 25 goals. Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson both scored 24 but the attack gets thin very quickly. Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, and Anthony Mantha each missed significant portions of the season and have not been at peak production since returning to the lineup. That is hardly a roster that can readily trade chances with the highest scoring team in the league.

If Washington is going to neutralize the Panthers attack, it will not be merely up to the defense. It will be forwards like Garnet Hathaway, Johan Larsson, Nic Dowd, and Lars Eller playing at their shot suppressing best. It might not be pretty, but it is also the most likely path for the Capitals to make this a competitive series. That, and hoping that Wilson and Hathaway can leave a physical imprint and make the series messy.

Defense

Florida has built up a sturdy defensive unit, so strong that it has been able to withstand an injury to No. 1 defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who may not be ready for the start of the playoffs. Mackenzie Weegar has quietly been one of the top defensemen in the league over the past couple of seasons while Gustav Forsling, Ben Chiarot, Brandon Montour, and Radko Gudas form a capable core with Lucas Carlsson and Robert Hagg as depth options. Gudas and Chiarot bring a physical presence that will be needed against Washington but, as a group, they can move the puck effectively. Naturally, they would be even better with a healthy Ekblad, but they should be able to handle the Capitals.

The Capitals have a capable defense, led by John Carlson, but it is not a prime shutdown group. Dmitry Orlov has been a steady performer and may have had his best season. While Nick Jensen, Justin Schultz, Martin Fehervary, and Trevor van Riemsdyk do not necessarily strike fear into the hearts of opposing forwards, it is a solid enough group overall. However, solid enough overall is not quite what the doctor ordered when it comes to shutting down the highest scoring team in the league.

Goaltending

Sergei Bobrovsky is a tough goaltender to figure out. He has won the Vezina Trophy twice. He has had below league average goaltending numbers in the previous two seasons before bouncing back this season to at least finish above average. He also has no playoff success to speak of. His longest playoff run was in 2018-2019, with Columbus, when he had a .925 save percentage in 10 games. It was the only postseason of Bobrovsky’s career in which he finished with a save percentage higher than .910 and that rightfully causes some concern.

The good news for the Panthers is that they can turn to rookie Spencer Knight, if needed. He started slowly, culminating in a mid-December loss to Ottawa in which he allowed eight goals on 38 shots. Since then, Knight has a .919 save percentage in 19 games and is an easy option for the Panthers to consider if Bobrovsky falters.

Washington’s goaltending is not even as neat and tidy as Florida’s crease situation. Vitek Vanecek has been better than Ilya Samsonov overall this season but neither one has made a stirring case to be the No. 1 option in the playoffs. Vanecek may get the first start, but it would be a surprise if both Capitals goalies were not involved in this series.

Special Teams

For years, the Capitals power play, with No. 8 pulling the trigger in his familiar spot, has been one of the league’s best, but that is no longer the case. The Capitals ranked 20^th in 5v4 goal rate, with 6.85 GF/60, and that presents a relative problem when facing a Panthers side that has scored 9.29 goals per 60 minutes of 5v4 play, the third highest rate in the league.

Washington’s penalty killing has been better, ranked in the top 10 both in terms of rate of shot attempts and expected goals against during 4v5 play. Florida’s penalty killing this season has been average, ranking 16^th in both shot attempts allowed and expected goals against per 60 minutes of 4v5 play.

Conclusion

A matchup against the Panthers would be daunting at the best of times, but the Capitals without Ovechkin or with Ovechkin playing through an upper-body injury are not in the best position to pull off the upset. Panthers in 5.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Early returns from the trade deadline, as Andrew Copp, Mathieu Joseph, Claude Giroux, and Frank Vatrano are among the players making a difference with their new teams

Scott Cullen — Fri, 08 Apr 2022 13:33:22 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Ryan Getzlaf is calling it a career plus early returns from the trade deadline, as Andrew Copp, Mathieu Joseph, Claude Giroux, and Frank Vatrano are among the players making a difference with their new teams.

#1 Anaheim Ducks center Ryan Getzlaf has announced that he will be retiring at the end of the season. The 36-year-old has been a massively productive player. On his way to 1,013 career points, Getzlaf had nine seasons with at least 60 points, peaking at 91 points in 2008-2009. Additionally, Getzlaf had a dozen seasons in which he recorded more than 90 hits, so he could contribute more than merely points.

NEWARK, NJ - MARCH 22: New York Rangers center Andrew Copp (18) shoots during the National Hockey League game between the New Jersey Devils and the New York Rangers on March 22, 2022 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

#2 When it comes to the players that moved at the trade deadline, the New York Rangers have to be very happy with their acquisition of Andrew Copp from the Winnipeg Jets. Copp has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 23 shots on goal in nine games and adds stability to a line with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome. Copp was going to be a sought-after free agent in the summer anyway, but this strong finish with the Rangers is only going to drive his price even higher.

#3 When the Tampa Bay Lightning made a trade to acquire Nick Paul from the Ottawa Senators, they sent right winger Mathieu Joseph to Canada’s capital. Normally a checking winger, Joseph has found himself skating on the Sens’ top line, alongside Brady Tkachuk and Josh Norris. In the past four games, Joseph has erupted for 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 13 shots on goal, suddenly becoming a scoring threat.

#4 For his part, Nick Paul has been a quality contributor for the Lightning, too. His ice time is way down, from 17:22 per game in Ottawa to 12:37 per game for Tampa Bay, and yet Paul has six points (2 G, 4 A), 18 shots on goal, and 23 hits in nine games. He is skating on a line with Anthony Cirelli and Alex Killorn, a unit that has more of an offensive role than what might have been expected when Paul was first acquired.

#5 The biggest acquisition, at least as a scoring forward, at the deadline was the Florida Panthers getting Claude Giroux from the Philadelphia Flyers. It is no surprise that Giroux has been able to produce points upon joining the league’s highest scoring team and he does have nine points (1 G, 8 A) in eight games with the Panthers, but it is notable that he has 25 shots on goal in just eight games but has managed just one goal, scoring on just 4.0% of his shots. He is now on the right wing with Jonathan Huberdeau and Sam Bennett, a pairing that has been highly productive since the Panthers added Bennett last season.

#6 Even though the Vegas Golden Knights attempted to unload Evgeny Dadonov at the trade deadline, once the deal was quashed, Dadonov returned to Vegas and has become a vital part of the Golden Knights’ playoff push. Dadonov has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in six games since “returning” to Vegas and has settled on the top line with Jack Eichel and Chandler Stephenson. Still available in many fantasy leagues, Stephenson has contributed nine points (2 G, 7 A) in six games since the deadline.

#7 Acquired by the New York Rangers from the Florida Panthers, where he could not get consistent playing time, Frank Vatrano has responded well to his bigger role. He is averaging 15:36 per game with the Blueshirts, after getting 12:12 of ice time per game with the Panthers, and Vatrano has eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 29 shots on goal in 12 games. Vatrano has always been able to get shots but has not always received the opportunity to make the most of that skill. Since 2018-2019, Vatrano is averaging 10.41 shots on goal per 60 minutes of 5v5 play, which ranks 24^th in the league among players to have skated at least 1000 5v5 minutes, just ahead of Jack Eichel and behind Kirill Kaprizov and Justin Williams.

#8 Getting a chance to play on a playoff team has helped defenseman Nick Leddy, who has five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games since joining the St. Louis Blues. He has been getting a chance to quarterback the first power play unit so there is a decent chance of Leddy providing enough offense to matter for fantasy managers down the stretch.

#9 Rickard Rakell has been a solid addition to the Pittsburgh Penguins, often skating on Evgeni Malkin’s wing, but there has not been a big spike in his production compared to the start of the season in Anaheim. Rakell has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 20 shots on goal in nine games but after playing 18:21 per game for the Ducks, he has averaged 16:16 per game for the Penguins.

#10 Part of the package going to Philadelphia in the Claude Giroux deal, Owen Tippett is getting a better opportunity to play with the Flyers, but the results have not hit yet. In 10 games with Philadelphia, Tippett has three points (2 G, 1 A), but he does have 24 shots on goal. It is probably too soon to be optimistic about Tippett’s chances to be productive this season but his finish to the 2021-2022 season should give a decent indication about whether Tippett can fulfill his potential as a scoring winger.

#11 Veteran defenseman Michael Del Zotto was banished to the American Hockey League, but he went to Belleville and put up 27 points (10 G, 17 A) in 26 games. After the trade deadline, with the Senators needing more bodies on the NHL blueline, Del Zotto was recalled and he has four assists and 14 shots on goal in eight games, playing more than 18 minutes per game for Ottawa.

#12 The Florida Panthers paid a steep price to land defenseman Ben Chiarot from the Montreal Canadiens, but Chiarot has contributed four points (1 G, 3 A) and 25 shots on goal in eight games since joining the Panthers. The points are nice, but the shot rate stands out, as Chiarot was averaging 1.78 shots on goal per game with Montreal and that is up to 3.13 per game in Florida, even though his ice time has dropped by more than two minutes per game. Such is the value of joining the league’s highest-octane attack.

#13 Although he was hurt in Boston’s last game, defenseman Hampus Lindholm has had a positive impact since joining the Bruins. He has four assists, 11 hits, 12 blocked shots, and 16 shots on goal since arriving in Boston and steadying the top pairing alongside Charlie McAvoy. Lindholm does not typically put up big offensive numbers, which tends to limit his fantasy appeal, but if he could continue to chip in offensively while averaging more than 1.5 hits and blocked shots per game, as well as two-plus shots per game, then Lindholm would still hold fantasy appeal.

#14 While three points (1 G, 2 A) in eight games for the Toronto Maple Leafs is relatively consistent with his Seattle Kraken production, defenseman Mark Giordano has managed just seven shots on goal in those eight games, which is a notable decrease, and he is playing 19:15 per game for the Maple Leafs. 2008-2009 was the last season in which Giordano averaged fewer than 20 minutes of ice time per game.

#15 Max Domi was a scoring forward of dubious fantasy value with Columbus this season, scoring 32 points (9 G, 23 A) in 55 games, but that is better than what he has been able to provide in Carolina, managing zero goals and three assists with seven shots on goal in eight games for the Hurricanes. He wasn’t playing a lot for Columbus, averaging 13:25 of ice time per game, but he is down almost two minutes per game from that mark in Carolina.

#16 The points have not been there yet for defenseman Jake Walman, who has two assists in nine games since he was acquired by the Detroit Red Wings as part of the Nick Leddy deal. What is interesting about Walman is that, after playing less than 12 minutes per game for the Blues this season, he is getting nearly 18 minutes of ice time per game for Detroit and has put 22 shots on goal in nine games with the Red Wings.

#17 One of the priciest acquisitions prior to the trade deadline, left winger Brandon Hagel had been riding a high shooting percentage on his way to scoring 21 goals in 55 games for the Blackhawks before he was added by the Tampa Bay Lightning. The high shooting percentage remains, as Hagel has two goals on 10 shots for the Lightning, but those are his only points in Tampa Bay and his ice time has gone from 17:28 per game in Chicago to 12:24 per game in Tampa Bay.

#18 One of the benefits of being a rebuilding team like the Montreal Canadiens is that the team can offer a more substantial role to a prospect that might have the same opportunity with their previous club. Defenseman Justin Barron got into a couple of games with the Colorado Avalanche earlier in the season, averaging 12:35 of ice time per game. In five games since joining the Canadiens, Barron is playing more than 19 minutes per game, and he has two points (1 G, 1 A) along with 13 shots on goal. Montreal’s defense is going to be changing and the 2020 first-round pick is likely to be a big part of it.

#19 Going the other way in that trade, winger Artturi Lehkonen only has one goal in four games for the Avalanche but there are encouraging signs, too. For one thing, Lehkonen has seen his ice time go up by nearly two minutes per game, which is not typical for a player going from a bottom feeder to a Stanley Cup contender, and Lehkonen does have 13 shots on goal in those four games. He may not be a huge scorer but there is a good chance that Lehkonen will contribute for the Avs for the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs.

#20 The Seattle Kraken don’t score a lot so there is limited fantasy upside to most of their players, but it is notable that Ryan Donato has been playing a first line role for them. Since the deadline, Donato has six points (1 G, 5 A) in eight games and is getting an extra minute per game of ice time.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Big forwards that are elevating their production, including Anders Lee, Lawson Crouse, Jordan Greenway and more, plus a few trades getting done before Monday’s deadline with Calle Jarnkrok, Ben Chiarot, and Josh Manson already on the move.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 17:49:28 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, big forwards that are elevating their production, including Anders Lee, Lawson Crouse, Jordan Greenway and more, plus a few trades getting done before Monday’s deadline with Calle Jarnkrok, Ben Chiarot, and Josh Manson already on the move.

#1 Coming off a torn ACL last season, New York Islanders captain Anders Lee had a rough start to this season, managing four goals and no assists through his first 15 games. His performance since then has been uneven – some good, some bad – but Lee is now on a six-game goal-scoring streak, during which he has 10 points (9 G, 1 A).and 19 shots on goal. Since 2017-2018, Lee has scored 123 goals in 311 games to rank 28^th in the league over that time.

#2 In deep leagues, Arizona Coyotes left winger Lawson Crouse has had value from time to time because he provides hits in addition to modest offensive contributions but what happens when the scoring contributions are more than modest? In his past six games, Crouse has put up eight points (5 G, 3 A), 11 shots and 19 hits. Crouse is up to a career-high 19 goals in 59 games.

#3 Sticking with the trend of big wingers making a mark, Minnesota Wild left winger Jordan Greenway has not had a terribly productive season, but Greenway recently missed a couple of weeks with an injury and since returning to action has contributed three points (2 G, 1 A), 13 shots on goal, and 12 hits in five games.

#4 With Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog on the shelf with a knee injury, opportunity is knocking for Valeri Nichushkin, a powerful winger that I have recommended at various times this season already, but he’s now skating on Colorado’s top line and getting first-unit power play time. In his past 21 games, Nichushkin has 16 points (5 G, 11 A) and 59 shots on goal, but the chance to play with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen is even more appealing than Nichushkin’s recent level of production.

#5 Ottawa Senators defenseman Thomas Chabot has suffered a broken hand which could keep him out for the rest of the season, and for fantasy purposes, it opens the door for someone else to quarterback the Ottawa power play. Enter Erik Brannstrom, a 22-year-old puck-mover who has just five assists in 31 games. Brannstrom played a career-high 27:53 in the Senators’ last game, so he may be looking at an opportunity to play a big role down the stretch for Ottawa.

OTTAWA, ON - JANUARY 16: Ottawa Senators Center Josh Norris (9) skates during the second period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs on January 16, 2021 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

#6 Senators center Josh Norris missed five weeks with a shoulder injury, but he has been excellent since returning to the lineup, tallying eight points (6 G, 2 A) along with 19 shots on goal in eight games. Norris has played 100 NHL games over the past two seasons, scoring 41 goals. His 0.41 goals per game across the past two seasons is tied with the likes of Mitch Marner, Mika Zibanejad, Andrew Mangiapane, and Matt Duchene.

#7 Moved to the Edmonton Oilers top line with Connor McDavid and Evander Kane, Kailer Yamamoto is starting to produce after what has been a mostly mediocre season. He started the year with just six points (5 G, 1 A) in his first 28 games but has started to come around. During his current four-game goal-scoring streak, Yamamoto has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 11 shots on goal.

#8 Industrious Toronto Maple Leafs right winger Ondrej Kase has been a welcome source of secondary scoring for the Leafs. In his past six games, Kase has six points (4 G, 2 a) and 14 shots on goal. In the past couple of games, he has been skating on the second line, with Alex Kerfoot and William Nylander, which offers a little more offensive upside than when he skates on the wing of David Kampf’s line.

#9 With Bruins center Patrice Bergeron injured, Boston is dependent on the rest of their centers to fill the void. This is an opportunity for Charlie Coyle to step up and Coyle has been more productive recently, delivering 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in his past 16 games. Coyle has 33 points in 61 games this season and that 0.54 points per game is his highest since 2017-2018.

#10 The Calgary Flames made another savvy move before the trade deadline, acquiring versatile forward Calle Jarnkrok from the Seattle Kraken. Jarnkrok has been playing 16:48 per game this season, tying his average time on ice last season for the highest of his career, and there is a decent chance that he will not be required to play that much in Calgary. Jarnkrok has 26 points (12 G, 14 A) in 49 games, the fourth time in the past five seasons that he has averaged better than 0.50 points per game. That should fit comfortably in the Flames’ middle six up front.

#11 The other big trade from Wednesday was the Florida Panthers paying a big price to get defenseman Ben Chiarot from the Montreal Canadiens. Chiarot has deep league fantasy appeal, particularly after a recent scoring surge saw him put up nine points (2 G, 7 A) in his last nine games for the Habs. With Chiarot departing, the most obvious candidate to fill that ice time on the Canadiens blueline is Joel Edmundson, the veteran blueliner who has just returned to the lineup, playing his first two games of the season.

#12 Earlier in the week, the Colorado Avalanche made a big acquisition with their deal for veteran right-shot defenseman Josh Manson from the Anaheim Ducks. Manson only has nine points (4 G, 5 A) in 45 games this season, but he did have three points in his last three games with the Ducks before the trade. While the scoring numbers may not make much of a difference in Colorado, Manson had 10 hits in his first game for the Avs, so there might be some peripheral stats value for fantasy managers.

#13 With Boone Jenner sidelined, Jack Roslovic has moved up the depth chart for the Columbus Blue Jackets and sometimes all that is needed is a better opportunity. In his past 12 games, Roslovic has contributed nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 19 shots on goal. Roslovic had a breakthrough season last year, scoring 34 points in 48 games, but his ice time is way down this season, from 16:54 per game last season to 12:38 per game this season.

#14 21-year-old Arizona Coyotes center Barrett Hayton has taken some time to make his mark since he was the fifth overall pick in the 2018 Draft, but he should be looking at a consistent role for the rest of the season as Arizona tries to find players that can be part of the long-term plan in the desert. In Hayton’s case, he has put up eight points (3 G, 5 A) in the past eight games and that might give him some sleeper value late in the season.

#15 Florida Panthers rookie goaltender Spencer Knight was a potential Calder Trophy candidate coming into the season, but his performance was underwhelming enough that he ended getting sent to the AHL where he had a .905 save percentage in 11 games, hardly an assurance that he would be able to handle his return to the NHL, but Knight has been excellent since returning to the Panthers, posting a .928 save percentage in four starts.

#16 Carolina Hurricanes backup goaltender Antti Raanta has had trouble staying healthy for long enough to secure a starting job, but he has performed well enough to have value when he is healthy. In his past six starts for the ‘Canes, Raanta has a .930 save percentage, lifting his save percentage for the season to .917. For fantasy spots starts, Raanta is worth considering.

#17 Since the All-Star break, the NHL leaders in primary points (goals plus first assists) per game (minimum 10 games): Patrick Kane, J.T. Miller, Auston Matthews, Elias Lindholm, Nick Schmaltz, Jonathan Huberdeau, Connor McDavid, Clayton Keller, Jack Hughes, and Kirill Kaprizov. Miller is playing as well as he ever has while Schmaltz and Keller are driving Arizona’s sudden offensive explosion. Hughes has been playing at a star level since returning from injury.

#18 Nashville defenseman Roman Josi has produced a whopping 28 points in his last 15 games, surging into the scoring lead among defensemen with 72 points in 59 games, ahead of Colorado’s Cale Makar, who has 66 points in 57 games.

#19 Since the All-Star break, the players with the highest rate of individual shot attempts per 60 minutes (minimum 100 5v5 minutes): Viktor Arvidsson, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, Victor Olofsson, Arthur Kaliyev, David Pastrnak, Nic Hague, and Jake Walman. Some of those names are familiar and expected but Kings rookie winger Kaliyev along with Golden Knights defenseman Hague and Blues defenseman Walman are more surprising.

#20 Skaters with the highest on-ice xGF/60 since the All-Star break (minimum 100 5v5 minutes): Mitch Marner, Patrice Bergeron, Auston Matthews, Timothy Liljegren, Michael Bunting, Connor McDavid, Thomas Harley, Mikko Rantanen, Evan Bouchard, and Trevor Moore. Toronto’s top line is dominating and Bergeron, McDavid, and Rantanen are entirely expected to create quality scoring chances, but young defensemen Liljegren, Harley, and Bouchard are driving positive results when they are on the ice.

#21 The players that have been most snakebit since the All-Star break, with the greatest difference between their all-situations expected goals and their actual goals: Brendan Gallagher, Anthony Beauvillier, Andrew Copp, Rasmus Asplund, Alex Iafallo, Roope Hintz, Nazem Kadri, Joe Pavelski, John Tavares, and Mikko Rantanen. From that group, I would expect Hintz, Tavares, and Rantanen to be the most likely to see their goal-scoring numbers improve down the stretch.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

Express Laine – Winnipeg Jets 2018-19 Season Preview

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 14 Sep 2018 14:22:27 +0000

REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – The Winnipeg Jets entered the 2017-18 season as a team that looked dangerous offensively with a promising young group of forwards that featured Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine, and Nikolaj Ehlers, but there was a lot of uncertainty about how they would fare at their own end of the ice.

A breakout performance from goaltender Connor Hellebuyck in 2017-18 elevated the Winnipeg Jets from being an interesting team with upside to a serious contender. He finished second in Vezina Trophy voting with a 2.36 GAA and .924 save percentage in 67 games. Meanwhile, the Jets had one of the league’s top offenses, led by a 91-point campaign by Blake Wheeler and a 44-goal showing out of Laine. Winnipeg had a 52-20-10 record in the regular season and made it to the Western Conference Final before the Vegas Golden Knights eliminated the Jets in five games.

TAKE TWO – Given that the Jets are a largely young group that took a major step forward last season, the summer was unsurprisingly dedicated to maintenance rather than additions.

Connor Hellebuyck

Hellebuyck, coming off a one-year, $2.25 million contract, was rewarded for his breakout performance with a six-year, $37 million extension. The Jets are taking a risk there given that Hellebuyck only has 149 total NHL games on his resume and his first two campaigns were a mixed bag, but he’s also just 25-years-old and that contract will look very good if Hellebuyck manages to stay at anything close to the level he showed in 2017-18.

Wheeler received the other big payday. He signed a five-year, $41.25 million contract that starts with the 2019-20 campaign. Wheeler is arguably one of the more overlooked stars in the league given that he ranks fifth in points over the past three campaigns with 243 in 245 games. Only Patrick Kane, Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, and Nikita Kucherov have outperformed Wheeler in terms of points over that span.

With those two locked up, the Jets now have six forwards (Wheeler, Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault, and Adam Lowry), two defensemen (Dustin Byfuglien and Tucker Poolman) and their starting goaltender (Hellebuyck) all locked up through at least 2021-22. It’s a luxury to have that much of their core locked up, but the flipside is that the Jets have committed $47.25 million in cap space to nine players over each of the next three seasons and those nine don’t even include some of their potentially most expensive players.

WILL THERE BE A TAKE THREE? – Given that the Jets are still a relatively young team it seems odd to look at 2018-19 as a do-or-die season for them, but the reality of the salary cap does present that question, at least to some extent. It’s unlikely that the Jets will be a bad team in 2019-20, but could 2018-19 be their peak? That’s not an unreasonable question.

After all, this is the last season that Laine will be tethered to an entry-level contract. He already has 80 goals and 134 points in 155 games and when you look at the contracts that other star players got immediately following their ELC in recent years like Connor McDavid (eight-years, $100 million), Jack Eichel (eight-years, $80 million), and Leon Draisaitl (eight-years, $68 million), you can quickly get a sense that Laine’s payday will be massive.

This will also be the final season of Kyle Connor’s entry-level contract. He’s not going to get a contract close to Laine’s, but Connor had 31 goals and 57 points as a rookie in 2017-18, so he won’t be cheap either. Then there’s the question of defenseman Jacob Trouba, who has dealt with more than his fair share of injuries already, but is also one of the pillars of their blueline when healthy. He’s on a one-year, $5.5 million contract for 2018-19 and will be a restricted free agent after that.

Even if the Jets manage to keep all of those players without exceeding the cap, they will have to make sacrifices elsewhere. One of the first could be Tyler Myers, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019 and already looks like something of a longshot to re-sign given the Jets’ other priorities.

OUTLOOK – A big factor for the 2018-19 Jets will naturally be Hellebuyck. If he proves that 2017-18 was a sign of what he can do for years to come, then Winnipeg will be one of the league’s most dangerous teams this season. Even without him playing like an elite goaltender, the Jets will still be able to generate a ton of wins through offense alone, but another standout season from Hellebuyck is likely what it would take for the Jets to enjoy another long playoff run.