Brandon HIckey – McKeen's Hockey

Buffalo Sabres 2019-20 Prospect Review: Top 20

Sat, 14 Sep 2019 10:11:09 +0000

With only two full years and three drafts under his belt, it cannot yet be said that the Buffalo Sabres’ pipeline has been built in the imagine of current General Manager Jason Botterill. Looking at the 20 players highlit below – the 20 best prospects in the system – six predate the Botterill era. The other 14, including each of the top five, as well as the three nearest misses were all brought to the Sabres by Botterill and company.

Much ink – digital and literal – has already been spilled on Botterill’s draft tendencies. In particular, the peculiarity about his reluctance to draft players out of the CHL. In three drafts, he did not select a CHLer until his first pick this past June, taking current top Buffalo prospect Dylan Cozens out of Lethbridge of the WHL. And then the Sabres went back to the rest of the world, not touching any of the three CHL leagues with any of their remaining picks. They have had a number of players that they had drafted from other locales who later moved on to the CHL, including Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen (#3) and Matej Pekar (#12) below, but Buffalo’s scouts have been able to keep their sight turned south of the border, or across the water.

So, where do they go? Most common is looking for players on the collegiate track. Not counting players drafted out of Europe who proceeded to cross the pond to play for an NCAA school (see #7 Erik Portillo), there were seven players drafted in three years who were either already in college, or playing in a league that traditionally leads to college, generally the USHL.

After that, Botterill’s Buffalo has invested heavily in Scandinavian scouting. They drafted five players out of Sweden and another four out of Finland. That leaves only two players added to the system in the past three years we haven’t covered. One, the aforementioned Cozens, was their sole CHLer. Lastly, with their final 2019 pick, the Sabres had their first foray into Central Europe, drafting Lukas Rousek out of the Czech Republic.

It is too early to state that Botterill’s drafting habits will continue, especially considering the additions of both the CHL and the Czech Republic to his route. Who knows where the Sabres will turn to next year? More pressingly though, as time passes and the drafted players continue to develop – or is some cases, fail to develop – we will learn about whether this depth at the expense of width scouting will turn out well.

The Sabres used to draft players from everywhere but struggled to pick up good players outside of the first round. Since 2010, Jake McCabe and J.T. Compher are the only players picked outside of the first round by Buffalo who have played in at least 100 games in the NHL. That number will increase, and player like Oskari Laaksonen (#4) may be the harbinger of what is to come. Not only was he a surprise third round pick in 2017, but some draft experts didn’t know him at all. Now he is one of the best prospects in the system, a testament to trusting area scouts.

-Ryan Wagman

BUFFALO, NY - APRIL 02: Buffalo Sabres left wing Victor Olofsson (41) skates during a game between the Nashville Predators and the Buffalo Sabres on April 02, 2019, at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY. (Photo by Jerome Davis/Icon Sportswire)

1 Dylan Cozens, C/RW (7^th overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) Dylan Cozens is a surprisingly fast skater with high agility despite his 6-3” frame. He uses his speed effectively on zone exits and entries as well as to engage on the forecheck. Once he closes the gap on the defender, he has good hand eye coordination to knock down errant passes and the strength to out-battle his opponent along the wall. He is excellent in traffic whether trying to get a shot off, make a pass or carry the puck to the net. Below the dots he consistently creates turnovers and disrupts opponents’ zone exits. In open ice he has good puck handling skills and a powerful wrist shot. His playmaking is under-rated as he makes everyone on the ice more dangerous. He projects as a top six forward who could start out on the wing and move into the middle once he has established himself at the pro level, which may not be too far away. - VG

2 Ryan Johnson, D (31^st overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) As last season progressed, one of the draft prospects with the most helium was undoubtedly Johnson. That helium continued to expand and lift his profile right through the final whistle of the USHL season as Johnson was a key driver of his Sioux Falls’ squad’s postseason run to a Clark Cup championship. His game is the type that can require multiple viewings to really appreciate as his offensive skills are not yet fully at fruition. He is a beautiful skater, with fine speed and great edges and agility. His own zone game is also remarkably refined, a reminder that having a longtime NHLer and skills coach as a father can supersede growing up in a non-traditional hockey market such as Southern California. Heading to the University of Minnesota, Johnson looks like a future second pairing mainstay, and possibly more if his instincts in the offensive zone grow more acute. - RW

3 Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen, G (54^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 6) Luukkonen starred for the Sudbury Wolves this past year, earning not only top goaltender in the OHL, but also the Red Tilson as the league’s most outstanding player. Additionally, he backstopped Finland to an U20 gold medal. He is the complete package as a goaltender with his size and athleticism. Luukkonen moves so well in his crease, but with his size is able to square up to shooters still and take away all angles. He also reads and reacts to the play around him as he is rarely caught out of position. His composure in the crease this year was one of his more impressive features. Luukkonen has what it takes to develop into a topflight NHL netminder and has to be considered one of the best goaltending prospects on the planet. He just had hip surgery and will be sidelined for at least the next six months. Buffalo would be smart to take things slowly with his recovery because they potentially have a great one on their hands. - BO

4 Oskari Laaksonen, D (89^th overall, 2017. Last Year: Not ranked) Laaksonen has made tremendous strides since being drafted in the third round of the 2017 NHL Draft. His skating is very good, he is agile and smooth, with the ability to pivot well and transition quickly from forwards to backwards and vice versa. He gives a crisp first pass which consistently arrives precisely on the tape His hands are smooth and swift, allowing him to carry the puck up the ice. Laaksonen has improved his physicality and defensive game. Neither is his strength right now, but the improvements make me very optimistic about his future as an NHL defenseman. His shot has also improved. I think he has a realistic chance to be a second-pairing NHL blueliner, one who moves the puck well and helps his team start offensive transitions. - MB

5 Mattias Samuelsson, D (32^nd overall, 2018. Last Year: 4) Looking at the top three defensemen on this list, all acquired in the Botterill era, we can begin to see that the current Buffalo brass has a clear preference for high end IQ, especially when it comes to drafting blueline prospects. They also have an appreciation for speedsters, which Johnson and Laaksonen, as well as 2018 first overall pick Rasmus Dahlin all have in spades. Samuelsson has the former trait of high hockey IQ as the son of longtime NHLer Kjell Samuelsson, as well as two years with the USNTDP program. While he also skates relatively well for his gargantuan size, his speed will never be better than average. He has decent offensive tools and is a solid puck mover, but he projects as more of a people mover, using his great size and strength to maintain order in front of his own net. He might be ready to turn pro after his upcoming sophomore season at Western Michigan. - RW

6 Victor Olofsson, RW (181^st overall, 2014. Last Year: 7) For a player selected in the seventh round, Olofsson has defied the odds with his natural skill and hockey smarts. He is a gifted player and by far one of Buffalo’s top prospects. After spending several years playing professionally in Sweden in the SHL, he made his North American debut this past season starting with the Rochester Americans of the AHL where he led the Amercs with 63 points in 66 games. After gaining momentum in the second half of the season he earned a successful call up to the Sabres where he managed four points in six games. Olofsson has a high ceiling and natural scoring ability, and I expect to see him play what is likely his last season in the AHL as a top six forward before earning a longer call up to the Sabres where he will most likely start as a bottom six attacker. - SC

7 Erik Portillo, G (67^th overall, 2019, Last Year: IE) A large goalie with good reach and big hands, Portillo plays with poise and reads the play well. He uses his size well and is strong mentally in the way that he can totally shut down games when he is at his best and also bounces back well from a bad goal. When he plays his best game, every shot looks simple to save and he talks a lot with the defense helping to demonstrate poise towards the opposition. Portillo has some technical flaws and can overwork when he is stressed. He needs to get stronger to hold up his big body and could get faster as well, but he has NHL potential. He has committed to NCAA Michigan for next season and Buffalo can follow his development in North America over the next couple of seasons. Last season, he was the best goalie in SuperElit, but has no senior experience yet. - JH

8 Marcus Davidsson, C/LW (37^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 5) A top six talent that has shown steady, but not explosive, development over his time in Sweden. He has scored just over 0.5 points per game his first two seasons as a senior level player. It is tough to secure a job as a top six forward in the NHL and he will need to take bigger steps forward to reach that potential. He has signed on with Vaxjo for next season where he hopes to find a fresh start and a bigger role. The potential is still there and when he plays his best games, he shows a lot of promise. He is smart and processes the game well, making quick decisions with his quick hands. He is a bit soft physically, but if he can get more consistent with his skills he can get that break. He is a quite sneaky forward with skill who has some similarities with Loui Eriksson that way, but he still has a long development road ahead. - JH

9 Lawrence Pilut, D (Undrafted free agent, signed May 15, 2018. Last Year: 10) After earning accolades in Sweden, including recognition as defenseman of the year in the SHL two seasons ago, it was easy to see why Buffalo did not hesitate to sign him and made sure to give Pilut lots of opportunities both in the NHL and AHL this season. Starting the season with Rochester in the AHL, Pilut had 26 points in 30 games leading him to split the second half of the season between the AHL and the Sabres, where he was slow to fit in, often finding himself behind the play and slow to move the puck. Pilut is good at finding shooting lanes and has the smarts to play with Buffalo. He will be a good pick to start up with the Sabres this coming season once he is 100% healthy, ideally in a third pairing to start, due to the Sabres influx of defensive talent. - SC

10 Rasmus Asplund, C (33rd overall, 2016. Last Year: 9) Despite having a somewhat shaky start to the season, Asplund managed to prove he is deserving of a second line spot with the Rochester Americans as the season progressed. He is a smaller forward but a great forechecker working well to fill a spot as a grinder. Always keeping his feet moving, many of his 41 points this year came from rebounds and net scrambles. At times he is a little bit sloppy with his positioning which may be the reason why he has yet to earn a call up to the Sabres. Asplund’s progress and development throughout his first AHL season led him to earn Most Improved at the end of the season for the Americans and with any luck will lead him to also earn his first call up to the Sabres next season. He will be a top six forward with Rochester to start and should hopefully be reclaiming his spot on the Americans top penalty killing unit as well. – SC

11 Will Borgen, D (92^nd overall, 2015. Last Year: 12) Borgen is a strong player and a good skater who shows off those skills most when protecting the net and on the breakout. Although he only managed 14 points in a near complete AHL season with Rochester, he is a very offensive defenseman. Borgen is a skilled player with a good shot, however he would be able to get even more scoring opportunities if he spent less time in the penalty box. His skills are better used on the ice as he is a big and energetic defender who has adjusted well to the maturity of the professional level. His ceiling is high if he can clean up his game and focus on securing his spot as a top two pairing instead. Borgen is set to start with the Rochester Americans again and if he can use his gritty attitude to his advantage, he may see time up as a bottom two pairing in Buffalo as well. - SC

12 Matej Pekar, C/RW (101^st overall, 2019. Last Year: 17) Pekar is a relentless and fearless offensive player who had a successful first season with the Barrie Colts this past season. He plays an aggressive brand of hockey, constantly looking to attack the net like a gnat who just will not go away. He excels East/West by working the cycle and looking to get the puck to the middle of the ice. Pekar is also a tremendous penalty killer when that high-end motor is put to work. Unfortunately, a broken collarbone ended his season early, but the groundwork was laid for future success. Moving forward, Pekar’s ceiling as an offensive player may not be extremely high, but Buffalo may have a quality third line winger eventually who can slide up and down the lineup and play a variety of different roles for them. His versatility and well-rounded game will play well at the pro level and endear him to whatever coaching staff he works with. - BO

13 Brandon Hickey, D (64^th overall, 2014 [Calgary]. Last Year: 15) Hickey is an average defenseman capable of getting things done. His skills are not spectacular and nothing he does particularly stands out except for the fact that he is dependable and solid. Hickey has yet to join the big club for a game but plays with the maturity to do so. He is great defensively and a capable shot blocker with just enough grit and skill to play on any line with Rochester. With Buffalo’s defensive chart so full of talent it is hard to say if Hickey will see a long term stay with the Sabres should he earn a call up, however that is not saying he lacks the skill or the know-how but simply that he may not be able to find a permanent spot amongst the many offensive defensemen in their system. With Hickey’s more stay at home style look to find him as a veteran top four defenseman with Rochester next season. - SC

14 C.J. Smith, LW (Undrafted free agent, signed Mar. 30, 2017. Last Year: 18) The Buffalo Sabres have this uncanny ability of seeing the talent that other teams have passed over with their undrafted prospects. Smith is a great example of this as he is an entertaining player to watch and brings energy and drive to each game. It comes as no surprise that Smith will be given the chance to start up with the Sabres next season and with the way his development has played out so far, this coming season should be even better than his last where he spent the majority with Rochester tallying a total of 58 points and finishing second on the team behind only Victor Olofsson. His natural skill and scoring ability made him a stand out forward for the Americans last year, and are what will hopefully push him to work hard to gain a top six spot despite starting as a bottom six forward with the Sabres for the 2019-2020 season.- SC

15 Casey Fitzgerald, D (86^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 16) Fitzgerald isn’t the biggest defenseman at 5-11”, 186 pounds but he has had an outsized impact at Boston College. His family tree includes an impressive array of hockey players along a number of branches. He has a low accurate point shot and is a positive contributor on the power play. His passing is also solid. His stick and puck control are both above average for the levels he has played. Beyond that, one of his best traits is good puck pursuit in his own zone. He took his college career as far as it could go and turned pro after his senior season ended, his second as team Captain. He had three points in four games with Rochester and is expected to play the entire season there next year. He could be a decent second pairing defender down the road. - RC

16 Jean-Sebastien Dea, C (Undrafted free agent, signed Sep. 16, 2013 [Pittsburgh]. Last Year: 14 [Pittsburgh]) Dea is a hard-working forward who plays a good offensive game. He is always present on the forecheck and plays well in the neutral zone. In the defensive end he is sometimes behind the play and out of position, but thankfully he makes up for that with his smarts. After bouncing around amongst four teams last year, Dea will make his start with the Rochester Americans next season. He is a veteran forward with professional experience who brings a level headedness and know-how with the puck. Having already played 29 games in the NHL it would not be surprising if Dea were to see a few more games in the NHL again next season. It will be tough to estimate where Dea will fit in Rochester’s lineup due to the number of veteran forwards they have and set lines from previous seasons therefore he may have to start as a bottom six and work his way up. - SC

17 Brett Murray, LW (99^th overall, 2016. Last Year: Not ranked) Drafted out of the CCHL, Murray spent a year with Youngstown of the USHL for a half season before moving on to the NCAA to play with the burgeoning Penn State program. He was never a big scorer as a teen, with a game that was more reliant on great size, although not physicality, outside of trying to establish space. After a year and a half of disappointment with Penn State, Murray returned to the USHL as an over-ager. He led the league with 41 goals. The results were very impressive but need to be taken with a few dozen grains of salt. I have already mentioned his age, and I should also note that he is a below average skater, which can be forgivable due to the size. He has decent hands and smarts and we should keep an eye on him, wherever he goes next, but don’t expect more than a decent fourth liner as his highest projection. - RW

18 Linus Weissbach, LW/RW (192^nd overall, 2017. Last Year: Not ranked) To Murray’s yin, Weissbach adds the yang. The Swedish winger is tiny, speedy and as proven it at higher levels, getting better and more effective with experience. None of his individual tools are exceptional, but they work well in tandem to produce a player who, at least at the levels he has performed at, is fun to watch. He performed at close to a point per game pace as a sophomore with Wisconsin, finishing one point off the team lead despite missing 10 games, although his role may diminish a bit next year in light of the school’s bumper crop of incoming recruits. He may be a bit of a tweener, as he lacks the physicality of defensive zone play to be a traditional bottom six forward and his skill game, while promising, is unlikely to be enough to feature in a top six. If he can increase his agitation levels, he could max out in an energy role. - RW

19 Arttu Ruotsalainen, C/LW (Undrafted free agent, signed May 8, 2019. Last Year: IE) Ruotsalainen had a breakout season with Ilves in the Liiga and the Sabres took notice, signing him to an NHL contract. The small, speedy forward has an excellent work rate, he plays with energy, passion and competes in every shift. He is versatile and played both on the power play and penalty kill last season. He also has some skill to boot – quick hands and solid passing skills. Ruotsalainen is a quick thinker with the puck and does not need a whole lot of room to maneuver and be a scoring threat in the offensive zone. He has a decent wrist shot and scoring touch. It remains to be seen how he adapts to the North American game, but with his speed, versatility and work rate, he has a chance to make it to the NHL. - MB

20 Miska Kukkonen, D (125^th overall, 2018. Last Year: Not ranked) Kukkonen was having a decent season with Tappara U20 before leaving the club for Lukko, where he played both with the Liiga and U20 teams. The right-shot defenseman possesses good puck moving abilities. He sees the ice very well and can quarterback a power play. His skating isn’t particularly explosive, but he is quite mobile with good foot speed and balance. He likes to play rough and lay heavy hits from time to time – he uses his size to his advantage and punishes opposing forwards when the opportunity arises. Kukkonen needs to work on his defensive game, especially positioning and play reading away from the puck. There is some upside and although he has a way to go, I could see him develop into a respectable third-pairing NHL defenseman. - MB

Buffalo Sabres Prospect System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:28:59 +0000

The road has been dark and long for the Sabres. They have not seen a postseason game in seven seasons, and have only two first round losses since making the Eastern Conference finals in 2007.

Sure, the Carolina Hurricanes have gone longer without experiencing the playoffs, but the team in Raleigh was at least semi-decent. The Sabres have been awful.

Focusing on the seven year dry run, they were a near miss in the first year and then bottomed out quickly. In the lockout shortened 2012-13 season, they finished 12^th in the Eastern Conference. In the five seasons since, they finished seventh in the Atlantic Division once, and eighth the other four times.

What has all this losing brought to Buffalo? While Edmonton had the drop on the lottery, the Sabres were generally relegated to sloppy seconds, or worse. Looking only at their first picks, Buffalo drafted blueliner Rasmus Ristolainen eighth overall in 2013, forward Sam Reinhart was the second pick in 2014, recent face of the franchise Jack Eichel was the second pick after Connor McDavid in 2015 and back-to-back eighth overall picks in 2016 and 2017 yielded Alexander Nylander and Casey Mittelstadt.

Finally, their years of decrepitude won Buffalo the first overall pick this year, with one of the best defensemen to hit a draft class in ages heading up the draft. The Sabres did not hesitate to draft another Rasmus, with Dahlin joining Ristolainen on the Buffalo blueline of the present and future.

There were some pretty talented players named in the previous two paragraphs. Player who, surrounded by the right supporting cast, could feasibly be the core of a playoff team. Unfortunately for the locals, former GM Tim Murray was unable to round out the roster. Eichel is a star and Reinhart has finally shown signs of being a legitimate top six winger, if not quite yet living up to expectations.

As it so often is, the problem with Buffalo was that they failed to draft well after their first pick.

From the 2013 draft class, Ristolainen has been a workhorse, but overextended in a shut down role. They drafted 10 other players in that draft. Nikita Zadorov was taken later in the first round and was traded to Colorado after his rookie season in the Ryan O’Reilly deal. Second rounder J.T. Compher also was moved out in that deal. Of the other eight selected, they received a total of 100 NHL games played, mostly by up and down forwards Justin Bailey and Nicholas Baptiste.

In 2014, Buffalo drafted eight others after Reinhart. Only second rounder Brendan Lemieux has played in the NHL and that was with Winnipeg, as he was moved as part of the Tyler Myers trade.

The Sabres only had six total picks in 2015. Other than Eichel, second rounder Brendan Guhle has appeared in 21 games already and is in line for much more. Fourth rounder Will Borgen could join him as a third pairing defender within a few years.

The above-mentioned Alex Nylander is the only class of 2017 player to reach the show, but he has struggled thus far in his professional career. The Sabres have already neglected to sign three of their final four picks and have traded away their third pick as part of the exchange for Jeff Skinner. If not Nylander, Rasmus Asplund and Casey Fitzgerald are the only potential impact players from that class.

It is far too early to judge Buffalo’s 2017 or 2018 draft classes, but with Mittlestadt and Dahlin ready for immediate insertion into the NHL lineup, Buffalo is finally seeing some light at the end of their long road.

Rasmus Dahlin

1 Rasmus Dahlin, D (1^st overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) There was never any real question but that Rasmus Dahlin would be the first player selected in the 2018 NHL Draft. Both his skating and his puck skills grade out at the elite level. His overall game is incredibly mature and he famously represented Sweden at the WJC (while also playing as a regular in the SHL) as a 16 year old. He has average size for the NHL even considering that he has not yet fully accessed his man strength. Many have compared his game to previous top end Swedish defenders in the NHL, from Nicklas Lidstrom to Victor Hedman, but his game is most reminiscent to that that of Drew Doughty. Dahlin is the rare blueliner that can take over a shift in all zones, shutting things down in his own end and controlling the possession in the offensive end. He has been ready for the NHL for at least 12 months, and is maybe 12 months away from being an All Star.

2 Casey Mittelstadt, C/LW (8^th overall, 2018. Last Year: 1^st) If all you saw of Mittelstadt was his performance for Team USA in the most recent WJC (in Buffalo), you would think that you were looking at a future super star. His late season cameo with Buffalo did not disabuse that notion. But in the past two seasons, first split between Green Bay of the USHL and Eden Prairie HS, and the latter with the University of Minnesota, his production was good, but never great. At his best, he is breathtaking. He is so patient with the puck, defenders look hypnotized. At his worst, he tries to force plays. Perhaps playing with NHL caliber players more often will allow him to feel that he is not the only one who can produce, while the presence of Jack Eichel will ensure that he is not the focal point of the offense. Either way, he is ready to show what he can do in the NHL.

3 Alexander Nylander, LW (8^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 2^nd) Two years into his professional career, and Alex Nylander’s lack of offensive output is jarring. He still dominates against his age peers, with a third productive WJC, but he barely surpassed the point every other game rate and has all too often been a non-factor for Rochester. When seen at his best, he still looks like a future star, with his shot, puck skills and hockey IQ all grading out as high end facets in his game. He also skates well, although his feet are not dynamic. Sources have confirmed that he played through injuries last year, and he did perk up somewhat in the second half, but time has come for Nylander to step up. He still has to earn a full time NHL job.

Mattias Samuelsson

4 Mattias Samuelsson, D (32^nd overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) When you are as big as Mattias Samuelsson, it is OK to note that a player skates well for his size. Were he three inches shorter, or 20 pounds lighter, we would note that he has to overcome his relative lack of mobility, but at 6-4”, 218 and likely still growing, we can watch him play and nod in appreciation of his mobility for his size. Regardless of his size, we can appreciate his destructive presence in back. Overpowering in the USHL, he was masterful at shutting down opposition attacks and was a pure bull in the corners. His offensive tools are not as impressive, but his point shot can generate rebounds, and he can orchestrate a few zone entries. As long as he doesn’t get so bulky that his skating suffers, he could be a true shut-down defender at the highest level.

5 Marcus Davidsson, C/LW (37^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 8^th) Only average as a skater and he will never be known as a high end finisher, but Marcus Davidsson’s playmaking ability will always make him a desirable prospect. He more than doubled his point totals in his second season in the SHL and played a complimentary role for Sweden in the WJC. He plays a mature game, capable of fitting into various special teams’ roles and versatile enough to play either center or on the wing. Although his top speed is nothing special, he does show impressive agility on the ice. He is signed for one more season with Djurgarden, after which we expect the Sabres to try to bring him over.

6 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, G (54^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 5^th) The Sabres may not have a goalie of the present, but Luukkonen is doing what he can to be the goalie of the future. The first European goalie selected in the CHL Import Draft since the moratorium on overseas goalies was lifted, he will spend next season with the OHL’s Sudbury Wolves, another team trying to end a lengthy rebuild. He has above average athleticism, advanced technical ability and high end ability to read the play. Unfortunately, the results have not always been there. For example, in his first taste of men’s hockey in Finland, his save percentage was fourth out of the four netminders who played for LeKi. He also struggled in the WJC, playing a bit out of control. He has time, but he is another that needs to turn ability into production.

7 Victor Olofsson, RW (181^st overall, 2014. Last Year: 18^th) The 2014 seventh rounder was almost an afterthought in the Buffalo system before he exploded in his fourth season in the SHL, his second with Frolunda. By exploded, we of course mean that he led the SHL in both goals and power play goals. Previously viewed with a ceiling as a tweener the uptick in his finishing ability gives the Sabres that he may be a bit more. You want to see better skating ability in a player of his size, but to his credit, he battles hard for loose pucks and has above average puck skills in addition to his propensity for putting the puck in the net. We will all know a lot more after he completes his first season with Rochester.

8 Brendan Guhle, D (51^st overall, 2015. Last Year: 3^rd) A fantastic skater whose offensive game has grown year over year, Guhle now finds himself on the doorstep of breaking through full time into the NHL. His ascent up the ranks has been fairly crisp, as he acclimated to the AHL immediately, and earned his 18 game NHL trial. He is not a terribly physical defender, but has filled out his previously lanky frame nicely, and is very aggressive with is stick when defending. He has enough of a point shot to be usable on the power play and defends well enough to not be sheltered and even contribute on the PK. With Dahlin expected to feature right away, the Sabres may hesitate to roll with two rookies on their blueline, but there is no reason why Guhle shouldn’t entrench himself on the third time in short order, and slowly work his way up the depth chart.

Rasmus Asplund

9 Rasmus Asplund, C (33^rd overall, 2016. Last Year: 4^th) In four seasons spent largely with Farjestad of the SHL, Asplund’s point totals have steadily increased from three, to 12, to 19, and finally, to 28. Small, but very quick, he brings above average puck skills and mature hockey sense to the ice. While the improvement too his output is certainly impressive, he has not taken off to the extent that his original high end projections would have suggested as a possibility. He could still find a home on an NHL third line, but top six is looking less likely. He is also one of several Buffalo prospects who should be receiving their AHL debuts this year, giving us a better understanding of their future projections.

10 Lawrence Pilut, D (UDFA: May 15, 2018. Last Year: IE) Fleet of foot and silky smooth with his hands, Lawrence Pilut, the most recent winner of the Salming Trophy, given to the defenseman of the year in the SHL, signed an entry level deal with the Sabres in May. He is on the smaller side and last season’s offensive outburst was an anomaly as far as his historical record is concerned, more than tripling his previous career high in points in a season. On the other hand, he turned 22 during the season, and the fact that he did not produce much in the SHL from ages 18-21 is not that crazy. The fact that he chose Buffalo is a sign that the Sabres can find ways to acquire true talent outside of the draft.

11 Danny O’Regan, C (Trade: Feb. 26, 2018 [San Jose]. Last Year: 3^rd [San Jose]) A top scorer over four years with Boston University, O’Regan had a hard time breaking into the San Jose roster, a team that has skewed largely towards veteran players, since he has turned pro. As a way out of that log-jam, he was traded to Buffalo last season at the trade deadline as part of the return for front line scoring winger Evander Kane. He is undersized and can play a bit too much on the perimeter, but O’Regan has a fine collection of tools that suggests that the top end scoring he displayed from day one in the AHL can translate to the NHL to an extent as well. Nothing dynamic, per se, but his offensive instincts can play.

12 Will Borgen, D (92^nd overall, 2015. Last Year: 7^th) After three seasons as a steady defensive defenseman for St. Cloud State, Borgen is turning pro. Not dynamic in any way, Borgen is simply steady. He skates well. He is very reliable off the puck. While not especially offensively inclined, he has a solid sense for when to make his presence felt in the offensive zone, whether that is engaging deep to unbalance the defense, or walking the line to get a clear sight of goal. He also has a burgeoning physical game, and will occasionally line up an opponent for a big open ice hit. All of the above aside, when he is at his best, you barely notice that he played.

13 Nicholas Baptiste, RW (69^th overall, 2013. Last Year: 10^th) A strong skater who came two games short of losing prospect eligibility last year, Baptiste plays a solid two way game that gives him a small leg up on the player ranked immediately below. He has good size and while not shy, does not typically go out of his way to physically engage with opponents. Despite his recent record of scoring more than he sets up others, his shot is only so-so, but his puck skills can be fairly fancy. Given a consistent opportunity in the NHL, he can emerge as a solid bottom six energy winger who can pick up some depth minutes on special teams as well.

14 Justin Bailey, RW (52^nd overall, 2013. Last Year: 12^th) Were it not for an unfortunately timed lower body injury, Bailey would probably have played in the eight additional NHL games that he needed to graduate from prospectdom. One might say that he is build like a football player, and it would be appropriate as his father Carlton was a longtime member of the Buffalo Bills. The younger Bailey is a strong skater, who plays a physical brand of hockey. Add in a good shot and he starts to look a lot like a bottom six power forward. He still has to get the new Buffalo regime to believe in him as an asset going forward and he was not able to engender that belief last year.

Brandon Hickey

15 Brandon Hickey, D (Trade: Jun. 14, 2018 [Arizona]. Last Year: 7^th [Arizona]) In a league where most teams hesitate mightily to trade their prospects, Hickey is the rare one that has been traded twice before even signing his ELC. Drafted by Calgary in 2014, he was shipped to Arizona as part of the return for Mike Smith. With all signs pointing to Hickey not signing with the Coyotes after completing four years at BU, he was dealt to Buffalo for Hudson Fasching. A calm and composed blueliner, he is stronger in his own zone than he is when his team has the puck. In the offensive zone, he is more of a supporting character,

16 Casey Fitzgerald, D (86^th overall, 2016. Last Year: not ranked) The other Casey in the Buffalo pipeline, Fitzgerald, whose brother Ryan is in the Boston system, is an energetic, yet undersized, offensive defenseman who is entering his senior season with Boston University with a “C” on his chest. A good puck mover who shows the type of hockey IQ one expects from a player whose father played over 1,000 NHL games, he plays a game that seems suited for the modern NHL. Presuming that Buffalo can sign him to a contract after his final collegiate season, his right hand shot could help him get a leg up on similarly skilled second/third pairing types in the system.

17 Matej Pekar, C/RW (94^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) Matej Pekar left his native Czech Republic as a 15 year-old, spending two years playing in U16 hockey in Michigan before making a splash with Muskegon in his draft year. He is very quick, with some creativity to his game. He also plays a responsible defensive game, providing tight man coverage in his own zone and picking up regular shorthanded minutes for the Lumberjacks. He has soft hands and demonstrates plus vision when looking to pass. He is heading to play for Miami University where the Sabres will want to see physical maturity and less of a propensity to cheat out of the zone. He has a good chance to leap up this ranking in the coming years.

18 C.J. Smith, LW (UDFA: Mar. 30, 2017. Last Year: not ranked) By the time Smith got the UMass-Lowell, he had been passed over at the draft twice, first as a member of the Austin Bruins of the NAHL and second with the Chicago Steel in the USHL. The Iowa native came into his own with the River Hawks, honing his wrist shot and puck skills into above average tools, and working on his edges to help hi overcome his middling top speed. In his first year in the AHL, he proved that his game could translate to the pros, but the fact that he lacks any truly dynamic skills leaves some doubt about how well he could perform given an NHL opportunity.

19 Andrew Oglevie, C (UDFA: Apr. 11, 2018. Last Year: IE) In a down season for undrafted NCAA free agents, Oglevie was one of the best forwards to sign an NHL deal. The undersized California native is a good skater who thinks the game quickly and can finish, but prefers to create for his teammates, which he seems like a natural when doing. He knows how to find space in the offensive zone and is responsible in his own end. If he can convert his fast paced game to the AHL, Oglevie should find a way to gain NHL experience. Like Smith above, he lacks the dynamic qualities to be an impact player, but does enough well that he should be able to find a role at some point.

20 Eric Cornel, C/RW (44^th overall, 2014. Last Year: 20^th) When Cornel was first drafted as a mid-second rounder, the thought that he would rank 20^th on the Sabres’ prospect list four years later would have been a grave disappointment. Today, Cornel taking the bottom spot on this list is more of an indictment on the Sabres and their struggles drafting in the later rounds, which is highlighted above. He is a good skater, and can flash a good wrist shot, especially when he times his release right, but on the whole, his game is hesitant and he has shown little to no growth in two years at Rochester. Without taking a big step forward this year, producing in line with his skills, he might find a contract hard to come by.

Arizona – System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Thu, 14 Sep 2017 20:11:28 +0000

As one of the first teams to whole-heartedly embrace analytics as a driving factor in team building, the Coyotes have been a fascinating case study on how to acquire prospects under the new-aged rubrics.

The analytics era in Arizona can be directly traced to the hiring of John Chayka as General Manager in May 2016, approximately one month prior to the 2016 Entry Draft. Between his two draft classes, the Coyotes have added 14 players to the system, five in his first go round and nine this summer. It is clearly too early to come to any sort of conclusion, but there are some patterns that can be discerned in the tea leaves.

Before we look too closely into the Chayka drafts, we should recap how the team had previously made their selections, as a number of players featured on their top 20 are from previous draft classes. In the two draft classes before Chayka (BC), the Coyotes selected 18 players, 11 of whom were taken out of the CHL, three out of the US National Development Program, and the other four all out of Sweden. The forwards all had two-way ability in addition to above average offensive production as juniors, while the defensemen were rarely drafted at all – only three in the last two years of BC drafting.

Looking at that last note, it seems that one of the first commitments of the Analysts Draft (AD) era in Arizona has been to add positional balance to the system, using nine of the first 14 AD picks on blueliners. With one very notable exception, the forwards drafted have been as noteworthy for their unrealized tools as for previous production.

As for the AD defensemen drafted, they can be characterized by above average skating at minimum, relatively mature hockey sense and, like their forward brethren, toolsiness. It is still too early to analyze the Coyotes’ AD strategy for goalie development, as they had not drafted any, but have acquired two from the collegiate ranks, one as a free agent and one in trade for one of the forwards drafted BC. AD drafts have also stuck with Sweden as the only geographical talent overseas from which they have selected, which could be a function of available scouts, but is more likely a matter of small sample sizes. That said, they have been very open to drafting from lower profile amateur leagues in North America, having selected players from the OJHL, MJHL, and CCHL, in addition to the non-USNTDP portion of the USHL, demonstrating a belief in player characteristics being able to trump the more easily projectable numbers accrued in the well-scouted CHL leagues.

As a result of these four draft classes, both BC and AD, as well as the other means of prospect acquisition employed by both regimes, the Coyotes have a system mixed with both past production and projections for future production. The team has high end athleticism as well as heightened hockey sense. For an organization whose NHL roster is still being roughed into shape, there will be a lot of options available internally depending on how specific players develop in juniors, college, Europe or the AHL and how openings arise at the NHL level. At least a few spots should open up this year, which leads us to the two players most likely to gobble them up.

Clayton Keller

1 Clayton Keller – The early front-runner for the 2017 Calder Trophy, Keller is a magical puck player. He has breakaway speed, but can change up his gears in order to fool opposing defenders, or to help create a gap for hitting a teammate in stride. His offensive vision is near elite and he adds high-end agility to his speed to keep his body safe from bigger players. After excelling at the USNTDP, he barely needed one dominant season with BU before turning pro. His two assists in his first three games with the Coyotes are a nice preview of what is to come.

HELSINKI, FINLAND - DECEMBER 26: Canada's Dylan Strome #9 celebrates after scoring Team Canada's second goal of the game during preliminary round action at the 2016 IIHF World Junior Championship. (Photo by Matt Zambonin/HHOF-IIHF Images)

2 Dylan Strome – He was never as good as former Erie teammate Connor McDavid, nor the 2015 2nd overall pick Jack Eichel, and his career has not taken off like pick #4 Mitch Marner, but Strome is definitively not a bust. He has improved his skating to the average level. Everything else is plus-plus. He has an elite shot with power, speed and timing. He is a top tier playmaker and very good in the faceoff circle. If Keller is the Calder frontrunner, Strome is close behind.

3 Nick Merkley – While Strome’s failure to immediately launch into the stratosphere is not a disappointment, Merkley’s relative stagnation has been. Drafted late in the 2015 first round as a skilled, agitating big moment player, he seriously hurt his knee in his post draft year and has not really returned to previous levels. That said, he still has plus hands and is a very skilled puck mover. His edge work also still flashes plus. He is ready for pro hockey.

4 Christian Fischer – A strong skater for a wide body, Fischer has impressive jump. Like those ranked above him in this list, he sees the ice very well and can execute tricky and creative passes. Unlike those others, the big winger is more a goal scorer than a playmaker. He goes to the net and can beat most goalies with his sharp wrist shot from the slot area on in. While his AHL rookie numbers were strong, he needs to cut down on forcing plays, which lead to too many turnovers.

Pierre-Olivier Joseph

5 Pierre-Olivier Joseph – Tall and very lanky, Pierre-Olivier is the younger brother of Tampa Bay prospect Mathieu Joseph. He is an exceptional skater with a keen understanding of the game and high-end athleticism. He clearly needs to add weight to his 6-2”, 165 frame, but his smarts, skating and ability to play the puck will allow him to play a critical two-way blueline role wherever he plays on his way up the hockey ladder. His development will not be quick, but his upside is quite high.

6 Kyle Wood – Among rookie defenders in the AHL, Wood finished third in scoring with 43 points, including 14 goals. Including all of the top 20 scoring AHL rookies, none had a worse +/- than Wood’s -23. While he has elite size, a booming point shot and is comfortable and precise with the puck, Wood has one glaring deficiency to his game and that is skating. He has slow feet and poor acceleration. Will always need to be sheltered.

7 Brandon Hickey – After rebounding from a down sophomore year (offensively, at least) Hickey was dealt by Calgary to Arizona in the days leading up to the draft as the main part of the package that sent starting goalie Mike Smith to Alberta. Quicker than fast, Hickey plays with good alertness in his own zone, allowing him to pick off many a loose pass or from sloppy stickwork. He has a decent enough shot to profile on a second power play unit, but his best work is in his own zone.

8 MacKenzie Entwistle – A high-risk, high-reward projection pick, the Coyotes selected Entwistle in the third round this year after a stellar WU18 tournament put a bow on what was otherwise a disappointing draft year with Hamilton in the OHL between injury and lack of production. He is an above average skater who has decent puck protection skills, but struggled to convert that into good scoring opportunities in league play. With some offensive refinement, could be a two-way threat.

9 Filip Westerlund – A strong skater with great puck skills for a blueliner, as well as high hockey IQ. In spite of those gifts, it is easy to underrate Westerlund as he is quite undersized and has a weak shot from the point. He will be a more effective skater for his real NHL team than for fantasy hockey players. In other words, he will be key in getting the puck out of his own zone, but once in the offensive end, he will mostly leave it to his teammates.

10 Conor Garland – After leading the CHL in points in two consecutive seasons with Moncton, Garland struggled to reach the scoresheet in his first pro season with Tucson. With his diminutive stature, he can sneak up on people, and when he is on his game, can be a pest. He is an active puck hunter in his own zone and has plus hand-eye coordination. He tries to make up in bravery what he lacks in size/strength, but he is easily nullified when he spends too much time in the dirty areas of the ice.

11 Adin Hill – Although the raw numbers behind Adin Hill’s first pro season do not stick out, particularly after a rougher go of things in the season’s second half, he was Tucson’s most reliable (if not consistent) goaltender across the grand scheme of the season. He is a calm netminder who limits second chances and is unfazed by heavy traffic or a heavy workload. The Coyotes brought in two other young goalies to compete for the title of “Goalie of the Future” in the desert, but Hill should still be the front-runner.

12 Kyle Capobianco – A decent two-way defenseman who spent his entire OHL career on a Sudbury team that was unable to rebuild competently, Capobianco has been their leading blueline scorer for each of the past three seasons. Although he skates well when underway, he is slow to transition. Further, his shot, while heavy, is too often off-target. He will be tested more seriously in his upcoming rookie pro season.

13 Noel Hoefenmayer – A bit under the radar with a middling Ottawa 67s team this year, Hoefenmayer took a big step forward in his draft year, impressing primarily with his hockey IQ and puck moving skills. His skating, particularly his turns, can let him down when it comes to dealing with speedy rushes down the wing. His shot is also a solid weapon, and he is able to hit the target from the point with any of his wrist, slap or snap shots.

14 Cam Dineen – After taking the brunt of a knee-on-knee hit in December, Dineen missed the second two-thirds of the season with an MCL injury. Despite his down numbers before the injury, his draft year performance should not be forgotten. He has significant offensive upside from the blueline with above-average mobility and puck skills. Also shows promise off the puck, despite his lack of size. His positioning is advanced and he has a knack for cutting down the passing lanes in his own end.

15 Nate Schnarr – Nate Schnarr bears more than passing resemblance to the aforementioned MacKenzie Entwistle, but without the standout performance at the WU18s. Physically gifted, with strong potential in both his shooting ability as well as his stickhandling skills, he was unable to get much going offensively with a putrid Guelph team this year. Tall, lanky, and very young, there could be much more here. Check back in a few years.

16 Patrick Kudla – Drafted as an overager out of Oakville in the OJHL, Kudla moved up the hockey ladder to play with Dubuque of the USHL, and was none the worse for wear in the new league. He took on a central role for the Fighting Saints, leading rushes, using his stick very well in the defensive zone, flashing a heavy slap shot. As an example of his two-way potential, Dubuque often used him on the wing in the second half of the season. He is going to continue his career next year with Arizona State.

17 Ryan MacInnis – The son of Hockey Hall of Famer Al MacInnis, Ryan MacInnis is, to be both fair and blunt, not the player his father was. A versatile forward, he was a decent scorer at the OHL level, although never elite in that regard. In his first professional season, he looked lost more often than not. While his wheels are above average, particularly in terms of straight-ahead speed, the pace of the game seemed to be faster than he could process. He needs to step up in his sophomore campaign.

18 Merrick Madsen – One of the two collegiate goalies brought in this offseason to challenge Adin Hill for future starts in Arizona, Madsen has been very strong for the past three seasons with Harvard, taking the team to the Frozen Four as a junior this year. Physically resembling Matt Murray (very tall very lean), he reads plays well and has good balance. His athleticism is only moderate and he needs improvement in his technical game, but there are the seeds of an NHL netminder here.

19 Jalen Smereck – An unheralded defenseman with Bloomington of the USHL during his first draft year, Smereck moved north of the border to play in the OHL and the gamble paid off. After one solid season in Oshawa, he was offered an ELC by Arizona after a strong rookie camp. His follow-up OHL season, now with Flint, was even more impressive. Never the biggest, and sometimes rough on his feet, he has a strong shot and is tough to play against in his own zone.

20 Tyler Steenbergen – An undersized one-way player in his first draft year, Steenbergen exploded for 50 goals in his second draft eligible year in Swift Current, earning the chance to hear his name called by Arizona in the fifth round. In a draft class characterized by tools over production, Steenbergen was the exception for the Coyotes. His game is based on offense, but he has made strides in his own zone, particularly in terms of positioning.

Having taken a portfolio approach to player acquisition since taking over the helm, GM John Chayka now has player types available for all occasions in the system. The cream of their crop – Keller and Strome – should be in the NHL right away, but the battle of attrition to be among that second wave of graduating prospects should make for a better NHL team in the near future.

NHL Prospect Watch: Rising in the Pacific

Ryan Wagman — Sun, 12 Feb 2017 17:27:04 +0000

As a perennially high-achieving team, the San Jose Sharks rarely get to draft early. Often enough, by the time late June rolls around, the Sharks do not have a first round pick at all. Last year, they only selected once in the first three rounds of the draft. Coming on the heels of the franchise’s first ever Stanley Cup Finals appearance, no one minded, but this pattern does tend to leave limited chances for the organization to restock the cupboards. This has forced the organization to find much of their next generation in the middle and later rounds of the draft, or outside of the draft altogether.

Looking at the Hockey Prospectus top ten from last year, only two were first rounders and six were taken after the second round in their respective draft years. Three of those skaters, Timo Meier, Kevin Labanc and Marcus Sorensen, have already seen extensive time with the Sharks, and another, Nikolay Goldobin, is expected to receive his chance before the year is out. It is not a coincidence that all four of those players are forwards. The Sharks only placed one blueliner in the top ten and most of the defensemen in the system have disappointed. It would be easy to spend this space talking about Mirco Mueller, a former first rounder who was rushed into the NHL and is now floundering in the AHL, having experienced little to no growth in his game since he was drafted in 2013. Having played in 50 NHL games prior to this season, he did not make our cut-off for prospectdom, so I will instead regale you of tales of former second rounder Julius Bergman (San Jose, 2/46, 2014 – D, San Jose (AHL)).

Seen as an offensive defender with Frolunda in Sweden’s top junior league, he followed that up with a promising season with London in the OHL the next year. He is now in his second AHL season even though he turned 21 only a few months ago. In spite of his promising scoring numbers in the OHL and even this year with the Barracuda (18 points in 38 games), Bergman is not trending in the right direction. I have seen him play many times, and I have never been impressed. As a junior-aged player, he could be worse than ineffective in his own zone. Now, he is simply weak in the back, too often losing his man and one of the last options his team will look to when killing a penalty or holding on to a late lead.

He is not a hopeless cause with his age and smooth puck carrying skills still in his favor. He is a decent skater and his frame has filled out enough for him not to be a pushover. While he gets plenty of ice time on the power play, it is more due to his skills moving the puck along the point as his shot is unimpressive. In addition to the aforementioned Mueller, Tim Heed and Joakim Ryan both of whom entered this season largely unheralded as prospects, have passed Bergman on the depth chart for the Sharks.

September 21, 2015: Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Joey LaLeggia (84)

Joey LaLeggia (Edmonton, 5/123, 2012 – D, Bakersfield (AHL))

After struggling through a rookie professional season in which he was frequently shuttled back and forth from defense to the wing, former Hobey Baker Award finalist Joey LaLeggia seems to be finding his legs in his second season in the circuit. Standing only 5-9”, the former University of Denver standout was mostly a prospect afterthought before his explosive senior year with the Pioneers.

He failed to impress as a rookie pro as, despite his occasional offensive flashes and clearly plus skating ability, LeLaggia would take risk after risk in moving the puck, too many of which ended up back in his own zone, if not in his net, sooner than later. Combined with a few too many untimely minors, and it was easy for Oilers fans to lose sight of what he could do. Now playing a more consistent role on the back-end for the Condors, LaLeggia has been making better decisions about when and how to move the puck. He plays the game at a very fast pace and has a plus point shot. I am not suggesting that LaLeggia is the next Brian Rafalski, the archetype of the small puck mover. More realistic is another M-A Bergeron.

The Oilers blueline is deeper now than it has been in some time, with the additions of Adam Larsson and Kris Russell both being felt positively in the standings. LaLeggia is unlikely to garner a callup this year outside of an emergency situation, but he is putting himself in line to get another contract after his ELC expires this summer. That was no sure thing a few months ago. His experience on the wing may also help opportunity shine on his door.

Jonny Brodzinski (Los Angeles, 5/148, 2013 – C/RW, Ontario (AHL))

First a disclaimer: I wanted to write about Paul LaDue, but he was recently recalled to Los Angeles, and even though he has only played in one NHL game by the time of this writing, it felt like cheating. That’s OK, though. Brodzinski is a good one.

The oldest of three hockey player Brodzinski boys (Michael is a defenseman in the Sharks’ system, and Easton has been lighting it up in the USHL this year), Jonny is an unheralded high skill player waiting for his chance to play in the NHL. As a rookie pro last year, he showed flashes of offensive talent, most notably a shot that graded out as near elite by former Hockey Prospectus contributor Jason Lewis.

Now clearly more comfortable with the pace of play in the AHL, he is coming into his own. After contributing only 28 points in 65 games as a rookie, he now has 32 in 42. Not only is his shot a weapon to be respected, by the Big Brodzinski is a plus skater with a great pair of mitts. He is brawnier than he was last year or during his time with St. Cloud State but does not play a very physical game. As the Kings have good depth at right wing, his most likely path to regular NHL work is to prove that he can hack it as a center. He should be challenging Nick Shore for a job by training camp next fall.

Thatcher Demko (Vancouver, 2/36, 2014 – G, Utica (AHL))

Professional hockey is hard. Pretty much any player who gets to step on the ice for an AHL team (much less one in the NHL) was the best on their team at many points throughout their youth. Demko, one of the higher profile prospects in the Vancouver system, can also lay claim to having been the best netminder in the entire NCAA last year, closing the season by being named the winner of the Mike Richter Award for the top collegiate goaltender.

Demko still has many of the attributes that excited scouts and pundits before being the second goalie drafted in 2014. He is still 6-4” with the legs of a spider. He is still a very competitive netminder, pushing through crease scrums to get to loose pucks or to pounce on rebounds. His lateral movement is impressive, giving him strong post-to-post mobility. These are all great things to say about a young goalie and Demko remains among the top five-ten goaltending prospects in the game. However (you must have known this was coming) he is still rather raw. He is working on his positioning, which can be a glaring weakness at times, as it can lead to some unfortunate rebounds from which he cannot recover. Further, his long legs can leave him susceptible to “Big five hole syndrome”.

Demko has been splitting time between the pipes for Utica with journeyman Richard Bachman, although Bachman has put up slightly better numbers thus far. Either way, he is not stopping nearly as many pucks for the Comets as he did for BC. Vancouver starting netminder Ryan Miller will be a UFA after this season, but there is not yet any indication that Demko will be ready to take over next year. He still projects as an even money to grow into an NHL start down the road, but not before the 2018-19 season.

Kevin Roy (Anaheim, 4/97, 2012 – LW, San Diego (AHL))

Like Demko, Roy is another collegiate star who is having to learn how to make the necessary adjustments at the AHL level. Unlike Demko, who peaked in his final NCAA season, Roy actually had his worst experience as a senior at Northeastern, as he dealt with an injury that cost him close to a quarter of his last year, cutting into his raw offensive totals and hampering him when he was healthy enough to suit up.

With 27 points in his first 41 games in the AHL, Roy is at least showing that he can still produce fine offensive numbers against more seasoned and more talented competition. Those are certainly respectable totals for a rookie professional. Where he still has room for growth (outside of being generally small) is in his decision making. Roy is a skill player. He was one of the most electrifying puck players in NCAA hockey over the past few seasons. While he can still dazzle, the risks that he got away with frequently in college come at higher costs now. At 5-10” and a slight 170 pounds, he does not look like, nor does he play like, a typical bottom six forward. As a top six type (full disclaimer – I believe the league is trending towards a top nine + energy line instead of a traditional top six/bottom six split) he needs to hone his game and learn to better recognize the situations wherein risk taking will be rewarded and better avoid those lower upside plays.

The line between an AHL star who cannot play in the NHL and a superstar can be thin at times. For a league that is generally risk-averse, Roy’s biggest challenge is in proving that he will not make a coach look stupid. That may not be the best approach for building a winning hockey club, but it is the world in which we live. It is too early to write the book on Roy, as he can still go in either direction.

Adin Hill (Arizona, 3/76, 2015 – G, Tucson (AHL))

A workhorse in the WHL for the Portland Winterhawks, Adin Hill has been very quick to find his sea legs in the AHL. One good way to judge goalies in leagues of varying quality is to compare their save percentage to that of their counterparts. The Roadrunners have used three netminders thus far. Journeyman veteran Justin Peters has a 0.868 save percentage in 12 appearances. Marek Langhamer has stopped 91.8% of shots in 10 games in his second year in the AHL. Hill, in 22 games, has a 0.921 save percentage. Only three netminders with at least 20 games played in the AHL have stopped a higher percentage of shots.

At 6-3”, 185, Hill has the ideal goalie frame. He covers the net well and remains calm under pressure. More a shot blocker than a pure butterfly netminder, he is best covering the center and lower half of the net. He has notably impressive rebound control and is not without some puck playing skills.

If the Coyotes were a more competitive team, they would do well to consider sending down the struggling Louis Domingue and bringing up Hill to back-up the venerable Mike Smith. As Arizona is one of the few teams that is clearly out of contention this early (in truth, they have been out of it from day two of the season – they lost five in a row after winning their season opener), there is no need to rush Hill. The best course of action now is to allow him to continue stopping pucks for Tucson and then give him a chance to compete for an NHL job next season.

Brandon Hickey (Calgary, 3/64, 2014 – D, Boston University (Hockey East))

Drafted as an offensive blueliner out of the AJHL in 2014, Hickey entered college hockey with a bang, with a 17 point freshman season. Although he made Canada’s WJC entry as a sophomore, the season was viewed by many as a disappointment, with his scoring totals dropping to a mere eight points on the season. He still demonstrated a great set of skills on a regular basis, replete with plus mobility and high end shooting and puck skills. Thankfully, he also showed promising development in the defensive side of the game.

Now a junior, Hickey has combined the offensive output from his freshman season with the defensive utility from his follow-up campaign. Playing on the primary penalty killing unit for the BU Terriers, a squad with six NHL drafted defensemen is a testament to his trustworthiness in the back. He has an average sized frame and does not shy away from physical play although he will never be mistaken for a bruiser. It would be fair to state that he does not make life easy for opposing forwards. He has an active stick which helps him to break up plays and pick off loose pucks. He transitions very smoothly in either direction, turning back to his defensive duties as quickly as he gets up for an offensive foray.

If I have any concern at all for Hickey’s future projection it is his skating. His stride can be adequate in small areas, as he is agile and his first few steps are strong enough. When it comes to races, or long distance play, he leaves me with some questions. All told, I can give him an average skating grade, but feel that he can be exploited on long range break out passes. The Flames are deep on the blueline and so can afford to give him time in the AHL to hone his game. After the season he is having, I expect him to suit up in Stockton by next fall.

NHL Prospect Watch: Calgary Flames

Ryan Wagman — Tue, 17 May 2016 22:57:15 +0000

After a pretty disappointing season for their AHL team, the Calgary Flames can rest more easily knowing that three of the top prospects in the system were not yet at the minor pro level. We won’t spend too much time discussing Andrew Mangiapane, a steal of a sixth rounder last summer. While undersized, Mangiapane plays a big game, coupling puck skills, a high hockey IQ and tenacity that should leave Flames’ execs satisfied that he will not shy from the tighter game in the pros. As he was drafted in his second year of eligibility, Mangiapane is already 20 years old and is signed to his ELC. He will join Stockton next year coming off two straight 100 point seasons for Barrie.

Mark Jankowksi, C, Providence (NCAA) (21^st overall, 2012)

A surprise first rounder when drafted in 2012, Jankowski spent the full four years playing for Providence, a period of time which included an NCAA championship in his junior season. Never an elite scorer, Jankowski nevertheless shows a robust tool set that suggests an ability to produce as a professional. He has filled out his frame during his collegiate career and while still lean, there is enough strength to remain effective. That said, he will not be a physical player.

The Hamilton native is comfortable on the cycle and has strong hands which allow him to maintain puck control even when the opposing defenders are keyed on him and pressuring him. Beyond strength, his hands are also rather quick and soft. He can corral misplaced passes that would be giveaways when given to inferior players and quickly turn those pucks towards the net with some zip. Speaking of zip, Jankowski’s top attribute is his shot. He has a high end release, able to get elevation, power and placement from a single touch. He sees shooting lanes well, excelling at getting the puck through screens and on the net. He is also a plus skater with good edge work and strong top speed. While his hands are soft, he is not the type to dazzle with creative puck wizardry, but he does handle it well, and as alluded to before, he is trustworthy as a puck carrier. Jankowski turned pro shortly after the conclusion of his senior year and gave the Flames brass hope for the future with six points in his first eight AHL games at the tail end of the Stockton season. While Jankowski is a natural center, he has plenty of experience at left wing and that is his clearest path to the NHL. He would benefit from a full (or near full) season in the AHL to ensure his pace has acclimated, but profiles as a potential second line winger sooner than later.

Brandon Hickey, D, Boston University (NCAA) (64^th overall, 2014)

A disappointing sophomore season for the BU Terriers aside, Brandon Hickey remains a mobile rearguard who should be firmly in the Flames plans for the near future. From the Edmonton suburb of Leduc, Hickey was scouted out of the Spruce Grove program in the AJHL. His freshman season with BU was tremendous with 17 points in 41 games, lining up with another elite prospect in Jack Eichel. With the Terriers unable to replace Eichel (no collegiate program could) Hickey’s offensive numbers suffered, dropping to eight points in 36 games. On the bright side, he gained some attention from Hockey Canada – a relative rarity among collegians – and was selected to represent his country during the WJC.

Hickey’s best attribute is his ability to lead a rush. A plus skater, he can pick a lane to exit his own zone and eat up ice on his way to the other side. His passes are crisp and he is not averse to letting one of his teammates make the zone entry when a better lane exists. His slap shot is great and his wrist shot is strong enough to suggest a solid point man down the line. Unlike many teenaged offensive blueliners, Hickey is also an asset off the puck. He keeps tight gaps on his opponents and maintains an active stick, both to strip pucks as well as to serve as an outlet for teammates who have already won the puck. He can be physical as well, although he is short of punishing. He would need to pack on 15-20 more pounds to reach that level. As of this writing, Hickey has not signed an ELC, and it is likely that he will return to BU for a third season. If his production can return to the levels of his freshman campaign, he will likely turn pro next summer. It says here that he will exceed those figures and compete for a spot on the Calgary blueline for the 2017-18 season. A number two defender is not out of the question, but it is more likely that he settles in as a solid option for the second pairing, contributing on both ends of the ice.

Adam Ollas Mattsson, D, Djurgarden (SHL) (175^th overall, 2014)

Unfortunately for AOM and the Flames, the young blueliner missed a good chunk of the season with injury, masking what had otherwise been a year of steps forward for the hulking teenager. A prominent member of Sweden’s entry at the World Juniors until the aforementioned injury hit him early in the medal round. Very much a defensive defenseman, he can nonetheless move the puck well and showed during the big tournament that he can join the rush as a puck carrier.

For the most part, though, this will not be a D-man who will ever earn much if any time on the power play. He will earn penalty killing shifts and appeal to his coaches through his willingness to step in front of slap shots. He spent most of his healthy days this year playing in the SHL, but his role in the men’s league was relatively minor, indicating that he would have been better off developing for one more year in the SuperElit (Sweden’s top junior league). At year’s end, he was healthy for the junior playoffs and was at times a dominating force, according to Hockey Prospectus author Jimmy Hamrin. Although rather far from being NHL-ready, Ollas Mattsson has the upside of a shutdown defender with a good first pass.

Oliver Kylington, D, Stockton (AHL) (60^th overall, 2015)

Another Swedish blueliner in the system, the slight Kylington may be the single highest upside player of any position in the Calgary organization. Like Ollas Mattsson profiled above, Kylington played with men as a teenager, in Kylington’s case, with Stockton of the AHL. Playing with adults is nothing new for the blazing skater, as he has appeared in SHL games at the age of 16. As can be expected with any teenager in the AHL, Kylington underwent significant growing pains this year, as partially seen in his meagre total of 12 points in 47 games.

Somewhat undersized at 6-0”, 183, Kylington does not look to have the frame to get much broader. That said, according to Hockey Prospectus Jason Lewis (who assisted with the reports of many of the AHL players in this system), he does not play down to his size and will happily engage with opposing forwards in front of his own net. He is not very effective yet in that regards, but he has not yet been a pushover. In fact, he has generally shown positive traits in his own end, with good positioning, and an understanding of how to use his stick to defend. He can also keep very tight gap control, as his skating prowess means that he will rarely be beaten with speed alone. He can be an offensive asset, and I would expect far greater numbers in the AHL next year (he is definitely not yet ready for a full-time NHL gig), as he can handle the puck and is electric when leading the rush, but he needs to show more creativity and better vision for lines of attack before he will have earned the type of trust that comes with top four minutes. Another area in need of improvement is in transition. While his hockey sense is good enough at times, he needs to do a better job of anticipating occasions of the puck going back the other way and prepare to defend, instead of chasing after lost causes or poorly considered pinches. Considering his age and his natural skating ability, along with the league’s move towards mobility over brawn, and it is easy to see why the Flames braintrust would be excited about his future. As long as they are patient, they should be rewarded.

Patrick Sieloff, D, Stockton (AHL) (42^nd overall, 2012)

Originally drafted out of the USNTDP with a reputation as a bruiser, Sieloff finished his junior career with the Windsor Spitfires before joining the Flames organization. Unfortunately, the Ann Arbor native missed most of his rookie pro season, and a good chunk of his follow up attempt to injury. Finally relatively healthy, Sieloff took big strides forward this year, cutting back on his penalty minutes significantly and even earned a late-season, one game call-up to Calgary, scoring his first goal in the process.

Although less reckless, Sieloff is still a very aggressive defenseman, always on the lookout for a big hit. He is a plus skater who lacks in puck skills, but will join the rush thanks more to his strong first step quickness and acceleration than to his offensive ability. His shot is decent from closer distances, but is not much of a weapon from the point. Like Ollas Mattsson, Sieloff will not be an offensive defenseman going forward, but unlike the other blueliners profiled above, he is close to ready for an NHL job and should tempt the new Flames bench boss – whoever that is – to push one of Dennis Wideman or Ladislav Smid out of the lineup. He does need to hone his instincts a bit more, like more young defensemen, learning when to channel his aggressiveness and when to make a more conservative decision, but there is reason to believe that Sieloff is ready to break into the regular six.

Emile Poirier, LW/RW, Stockton (AHL) (22^nd overall, 2013)

When I referred to a disappointing season in Stockton in the introduction, Poirier was one of the main culprits leading to that assessment. A former first round pick, Poirier’s production dropped nearly fifty percent form his rookie AHL season to his follow-up, going from 42 points in 55 games, to 29 points in 60 games this year. He was good enough last year to rank in Hockey Prospectus’ top 100 prospect list (#90), he is now at risk of falling out of the top ten for Calgary.

Oddly enough, in spite of diminished offensive returns, the part of the game wherein Poirier struggled most this year was in his own zone, as he would fall into the trap of puck watching and simply floating aimlessly. He still showed good offensive sense, anticipating openings well and is a plus stickhandler with a decent wrist shot up his sleeve. Thankfully for his future prospects, the Montreal native is still a tough customer who has a bit of nasty to his game. If his offensive acumen does not return, that truculence (don’t forget that the Flames’ president is Brian Burke) will earn him some chances to win an energy role. He would be above average in that role, but it would be a disappointment, as he had shown much more in the past.

Hunter Shinkaruk, LW, Stockton (AHL) (24^th overall, 2013, acquired in a trade with Vancouver for Markus Granlund)

Acquired by Calgary in an under-the-radar trade from Vancouver, for whom he had fallen out of favor as a first rounder from a previous regime, Shinkaruk has the potential to emerge as a bright spot from an otherwise dismal season. A former high-end scorer in the WHL, he took big strides forward in his second full AHL season, raising his offensive production from 34 points in 71 games with Utica last year to a combined 51 points in 62 games this year between Utica and Stockton as well as three points in eight NHL games between Vancouver and Calgary.

Fitting an underlying theme of the prospects profiled here, Shinkaruk has some chip to his game, which enhances his underlying skill. He is a good skater with solid first step quickness and a nose for the puck. He can be elusive when skating with the puck and is comfortable carrying the mail from his own zone to the other end. The Calgary native is a weapon on the rush whether passing to an open teammate or taking the shot himself. Although still undersized (5-11”, 181), he is unlikely to get much bigger, so the decision on his immediate future should be based on his hockey readiness, instead of physical preparedness. Barring a big offseason acquisition, he could find himself with an opportunity to win a second line job in the Fall.

Interview With Calgary Flames General Manager Brad Treliving

Peter Harling — Mon, 09 Mar 2015 13:37:04 +0000

One of the perks that come with being a hockey writer is the opportunity to meet people and players in the hockey community. I am always impressed with how accommodating, approachable, genuine and friendly these people are. From junior players to scouts and coaches all the way up to General Managers. At the Kingston Frontenacs game this week I was fortunate enough to meet the Calgary Flames General Manager and Assistant General Managers Brad Treliving and Craig Conroy and had a wonderful conversation with them on all things hockey. Brad Treliving was even gracious enough to give me an interview where we discussed their top prospect Sam Bennett and others in their organization

Sam Bennett of the Kingston Frontenacs. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

How close was Sam Bennett to making the Calgary Flames before the shoulder injury ended his season?

“Well that’s a tough question. His camp was cut short really from rookie camp; he had a groin injury and then obviously the shoulder surgery that he went through. So it was a very short camp for him, and the time that he was there he was very impressive. In his first preseason game he was arguably the best player on the ice for both teams. To say he was this close, or that close; he really impressed us, but it’s a tough gauge when you’re talking about such a small window. He showed us what we expected him to show us. He has tremendous skill, great vision and just his will and compete level are just off the charts. We think he’s going to be a real good pro for a long time.”

He said that he thought his chances were good and that he felt that his play in the preseason was good enough to warrant a shot at some regular season games and is confident in his ability to have taken that, and earned a roster spot. Is that a fair assessment?

“The thing I love about Sam is he’s determined. He is confident in his abilities but in a good way. It’s not a cockiness it’s an air of confidence that top players have. He was an impressive player in camp, but to sit here and look back and try to handicap what were the chances; it’s in the past now, he’s gone through the rehab and he’s back here in Kingston and playing and that’s the most important thing”

Where do you see him playing next season?

“We’ll see! I’m worried about him playing tonight then tomorrow night. I think the problem people get into in this game with young players is heaping a whole lot of expectations on 18 and 19 year old players. The NHL is a man’s league, and it’s a difficult league. There is no rush for us. Do we think Sam’s going to come into training camp and make every push to be on our team? We absolutely expect that, but let’s let him get back playing here, let’s let him finish playing out the season, let’s let him push this team (The Kingston Frontenacs) along and hopefully get on a playoff run here and we’ll worry about next seasons camp next season”

You said this was your first chance watching him play this year, what are your thoughts so far, two goals in the first period?

“He’s been pretty impressive, I think him and his line have been dominant, they have had the puck and a lot of offensive zone time, creating a lot of chances, he’s attacking the net, so I think he’s been terrific”

Do you have a player or two in the system you see making a push to make the team next year?

“We’ve got a number of guys on our American league team and even a few guys in junior. I don’t think it’s wise right now in March to start projecting. We have on our mind a number of young guys who are going to be pushing to be in that position. Michael Ferland and Emile Poirier are two young guys that really spent the bulk of the year in the American League, they’re both with us right now and we’ve had David Wolf come up and play some games. Marcus Granlund has come up and played some games with us, there are others that are on the American League team in Adirondack and some that are playing whether it be junior or collegiate. That’s the good thing about training camp, you’re always hoping and you write a lot of things in pencil and hope that you have a surprise or two every year. Going into camp this year we would have never, ever, in our wildest dreams predict that Josh Jooris was going to push for a spot. He did! He earned one, so that’s what training camp is for, so to sit here and start handicapping six months out, we’ll let all the other people do that and we’ll wait till training camp.”

Do you have a prospect under the radar, further down on everyone else’s list that you are excited about?

“Yeah I think we’ve got a few. Two picks from this year, our seventh round pick Austin Carroll who is having a tremendous year in Victoria, big strong right wing. I think he is approaching 40 goals, 70 plus points, he had a really good camp for us and he’s having a tremendous season. I think another guy, our third round pick from last year, Brandon Hickey who is playing at Boston University. I think he’s taken a huge step this year; he’s had a terrific freshman year. Those are probably two guys that didn’t get a lot of notoriety, under the radar if you will, but there are others. We’ve got a few kids that were excited about.”