Chris Driedger – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Joey Daccord stakes his claim to the crease in Seattle, Brock Faber eats minutes in Minnesota, Jack Quinn brings scoring touch to Buffalo, Juraj Slafkovsky is making progress in Montreal, and much, much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 29 Dec 2023 18:39:38 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - NOVEMBER 30: Juraj Slafkovsky (20) of the Montreal Canadiens skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Florida Panthers and the Montreal Canadiens on November 30 2023, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC(Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Joey Daccord stakes his claim to the crease in Seattle, Brock Faber eats minutes in Minnesota, Jack Quinn brings scoring touch to Buffalo, Juraj Slafkovsky is making progress in Montreal, and much, much more!

#1 One of the stories that has been consistent with the Seattle Kraken in their three seasons of existence is that they have not been able to find an answer in goal. They spent big money to bring in Philipp Grubauer as a free agent and he has not performed nearly as well as he did in previous stops with Colorado and Washington. However, with Grubauer injured, the door has opened for 27-year-old Joey Daccord, who had started 15 NHL games prior to this season. In his past seven starts, Daccord has a 4-1-2 record and a scintillating .944 save percentage. If he keeps playing like this, Daccord will remain Seattle’s starter even if the other goaltenders are healthy. Chris Driedger has been recalled from Coachella Valley in the AHL and he stopped 37 of 38 shots to earn a win in Calgary on Wednesday, and the 29-year-old appears to be healthy and ready for NHL duty after missing all of last season.

#2 Minnesota Wild rookie defenceman Brock Faber stepped up his game in a big way this month, especially when the Wild have been missing veterans Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon due to injury. In a dozen December games, Faber produced eight points (1 G, 7 A) while averaging 27:30 of ice time per game. That average time on ice was the highest in the league for the month of December.

#3 Recovered from a torn Achilles suffered in the offseason, Buffalo Sabres right winger Jack Quinn has buried a pair of goals on 10 shots through his first four games of the season. Quinn is a skilled young forward working on a line with Dylan Cozens and J.J. Peterka, a couple more skilled young forwards. It’s interesting to note that Quinn averaged 13:51 of ice time as a rookie last season and has averaged 16:34 per game in his first four games this season – the Sabres obviously have room for Quinn to play a prominent role.

#4 The first overall pick in the 2022 Draft, Montreal Canadiens winger Juraj Slafkovsky has not been overly impressive early in his career, but it should not be ignored that he is still just 19 years old. In any case, he is starting to show promising signs as he skates on Montreal’s top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. In his past five games, Slafkovsky has produced five points (2 G, 3 A) and he has played more than 20 minutes in three of his past six games. It’s kind of like the Habs are letting him sink or swim with this opportunity and, thus far, Slafkovsky is at least treading water.

#5 Acquired in a trade with the Los Angeles Kings in the offseason, Arizona Coyotes defenceman Sean Durzi returned just before Christmas from a lower-body injury suffered a few weeks earlier. In his first three games back, Durzi has compiled seven points (1 G, 6 A) with eight shots on goal. He is up to 20 points (6 G, 14 A) in 28 games and his 0.71 points per game ranks 21^st among defencemen this season. He has shown the ability to provide offence from the blueline and that is securing his value for fantasy managers.

#6 An early-season injury sidelined Anaheim Ducks defenceman Jamie Drysdale for more than two months, but he has returned and the smooth skating blueliner is worth keeping an eye on. Not only does Drysdale have three points (1 G, 2 A) in five games this season, but he has been inserted as the quarterback on Anaheim’s top power play unit and is averaging more than 21 minutes of ice time per game. Opportunity alone makes Drysdale worth a potential pick up.

#7 Veteran right winger Blake Wheeler got off to a miserable start with the New York Rangers, going 10 games without a point to start his career on Broadway, but the 36-year-old has adjusted. Despite averaging just 12:30 of ice time per game in his past seven contests, Wheeler has still produced eight points (3 G, 5 A) and has found himself back on the top line with Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad. The best days are behind Wheeler, but his sudden resurgence and playing situation do give him potential value.

#8 It seems like the Columbus Blue Jackets lineup is chock full of players auditioning for bigger roles in the future. One of those players that is making the most of his opportunities is Yegor Chinakhov, the 22-year-old winger, who was something of a surprise first-round pick in 2020. In his past eight games, Chinakhov is averaging more than 18 minutes of ice time per game and has tallied 11 points (7 G, 4 A) in the process. He is currently part of a Russian trio in Columbus, skating on a line with Dmitri Voronkov and Kirill Marchenko.

#9 Calgary Flames winger Blake Coleman has a reputation for his high energy and consistent effort, but his reliable production is making an impact this season, too. In his past 10 games, Coleman has put up 11 points (6 G, 5 A) while launching 28 shots on goal. Coleman’s 12 goals on the season puts him in the team lead, one ahead of Yegor Sharangovich. On one hand, it’s great that Coleman is scoring enough to lead the Flames. On the other, it does not speak well of Calgary’s skilled forwards, who are not finding the net as often as Coleman.

#10 There have been several occasions in recent seasons in which it would have been easy to write off veteran winger Marcus Johansson, deciding that he is finished as a productive scoring winger in the NHL. Of course, that would be wrong, because the 33-year-old Minnesota Wild forward has contributed nine points (3 G, 6 A) in his past nine games. With Mats Zuccarello out, Johansson has a spot in Minnesota’s top six as well as on the top power play unit and that makes him appealing, at least in the short term.

#11 It has not been the smoothest transition to Colorado for winger Jonathan Drouin, but the outlook is getting better for the 28-year-old forward who has produced seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. In his previous 26 games, Drouin had eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 33 shots on goal, so this is the best run of production he has offered since joining the Avalanche in the summer. He is such a pass-first player that it can turn his game one dimensional, but his recent surge does come with more shots and perhaps that makes his production more sustainable.

#12 There has never been any question that Washington Capitals winger Anthony Mantha has the skill to be a productive NHL player. There have been questions about his desire, work ethic, and discipline, and it looked like he was fading out of the Capitals lineup early in the season when he had four points (3 G, 1 A) in his first 14 games. In 14 games since then, however, Mantha has 12 points (8 G, 4 A) with 32 shots on goal, while averaging less than 14 minutes of ice time per game. This version of Mantha is very appealing, both for the Capitals and fantasy managers.

#13 When the Boston Bruins signed centre Morgan Geekie as a free agent in the summer, they could not have realistically expected that the 25-year-old pivot would be skating on their first line before the calendar turned to 2024, but that is indeed the case. In his past eight games, Geekie has produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 21 shots on goal. He has Pavel Zacha and David Pastrnak on his wings right now, and that’s a good enough situation to consider Geekie for short-term fantasy value at the very least.

#14 In his first four starts since returning from a broken finger, Calgary Flames goaltender Jacob Markstrom has a .938 save percentage. He had stumbled to a .896 save percentage in his first 16 games of the season, so this recent development could be a potential difference maker for the Flames. At his best, Markstrom can be one of the top goaltenders in the league. Unfortunately, he can also linger in the below average tier as well when things are not going his way.

#15 With Joseph Woll injured and Ilya Samsonov practically unplayable while he searches for his confidence, it looks like Martin Jones has an opportunity to run with the starting goaltender job in Toronto. Jones has a .914 save percentage in seven appearances for the Maple Leafs and while his consistency tends to vary, the likelihood that he could start most of the games until Woll returns does give Jones more value than might have been expected for fantasy managers.

#16 Washington Capitals left winger Max Pacioretty is nearing his return from another torn Achilles, suffered last season after he scored three goals in just five games for the Carolina Hurricanes. Pacioretty is 35 and has struggled to stay healthy in recent seasons, but he can put the puck in the net. Since 2019-2020, he has scored 78 goals in 163 games. His 0.48 goals per game ranks 14^th among players that have played at least 50 games in that span. It’s the same rate of goals per game as Nikita Kucherov, Sebastian Aho, and Jake Guentzel, so Pacioretty has been keeping company with some very skilled finishers.

#17 Coming into the season, it looked like there would be a bunch of scoring options on the Arizona blueline, including Sean Durzi. Surprisingly, the third-highest scoring defenceman on the team thus far has been Michael Kesselring, who started the season in the AHL and had one assist in his first five games after being promoted. Since then, Kesselring has eight points (4 G, 4 A) in 13 games, which is better than a 50-point pace over 82 games and he has not recorded any points on the power play. Kesselring will not keep scoring on 19.0% of his shots, but he is pushing for a bigger role on the Arizona blueline. The 6-foot-4 blueliner was acquired in a trade last season for Nick Bjugstad and dynasty owners should have keen interest in how Kesselring develops and if he can continue to be an offensive contributor.

#18 Just when it looked like Kris Letang might be fading into the background in Pittsburgh, lost behind Erik Karlsson on the Penguins’ blueline, Letang has produced nine points (1 G, 8 A) in his past two games. He had 14 points (2 G, 12 A) in 31 games before this eruption. He’s not the only sudden source of offence in Pittsburgh. Marcus Pettersson, whose career high is 25 points in a season, has recorded eight assists in his past four games. Obviously, Letang is the more appealing Penguins defender because of his track record, but Pettersson is the one more widely available, so he does offer some value, especially in leagues that count hits and blocked shots, because those are staples of Pettersson’s game.

#19 The Bruins have called up prospect Georgii Merkulov, a 23-year-old who played one season at Ohio State and had 60 points (25 G, 35 A) in 75 AHL games entering this season. He has been on a tear recently, however, putting up 16 points (9 G, 7 A) in his past nine games with the Providence Bruins, so it’s no surprise that he has been promoted to the big club. He has just been called up, so his role is unknown at this point, but if you’re a fantasy manager looking to take a flier in a deep league, a player who is shredding the AHL is worth your consideration.

#20 With the 2023 calendar year winding down, here is a look at some of the leaders. The league’s leading point producer in 2023 has been Nathan MacKinnon, who has 133 points (53 G, 80 A) in 82 games, ahead of Connor McDavid, who has 126 points (44 G, 82 A) in 74 games. There are six more players that have produced 100 points in 2023: Nikita Kucherov (118), David Pastrnak (108), Leon Draisaitl (107), Mikko Rantanen (104), Elias Pettersson (101), and J.T. Miller (100). With very little time left in the year, there is still a chance for Jack Hughes, who has 98 points (37 G, 61 A) in 70 games and Artemi Panarin, who has 97 points (39 G, 58 A) in 78 games. Brayden Point has 96 points (46 G, 50 A) in 83 games. Among those top scorers in the 2023 calendar year, there are also players who produce at a similar per-game level but have missed time with injuries. The most notable is Avalanche defenceman Cale Makar, who has 73 points (16 G, 57 A) in 55 games. His 1.33 points per game ranks seventh, putting him between Pastrnak and Rantanen. Other top per-game point producers that were not included among the 100-point club in 2023: Auston Matthews (1.25), Mitch Marner (1.24), Tim Stutzle (1.21), and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1.20).

NHL EXPANSION DRAFT: Seattle Roster by the Numbers

Alison Lukan and Shayna Goldman — Tue, 20 Jul 2021 13:25:18 +0000

In just under 48 hours, the Seattle Kraken will have the very first roster of players in franchise history courtesy of Wednesday’s Expansion Draft. 30 other teams (lucky Vegas is exempt) have labored over protection lists, and now it’s up to Seattle to pour through the available players and select one individual from each NHL club to join its organization. There are rules of course: the final roster must include 30 players – one from each team – and include a minimum of 17 forwards, nine defensemen, and three goaltenders with a minimum total cap hit of $48.9 million.

It’s a fun but daunting task to think about all the options and resulting on-ice product, so we decided to join the fray and come up with our own projection for the Kraken team with a data-driven approach.

For player valuation, we used Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR) measure to quantify what each player contributes on ice. We also considered a player's “expected” GAR (xGAR) to consider how a player performed compared to what was expected of them. We then also looked at this performance relative to cost (using annualized cap hit values from CapFriendly.com) to fill out our roster within the Draft guidelines.

With tremendous thanks to both of those online resources, here is our take on what the inaugural Kraken Draft class might look like.

THE ROSTER

THE DOLLARS AND SENSE

NOTES AND THOUGHTS:

The roster of signed players had a cumulative cap hit of about $58 million. On the viz above, to get a gauge of what some of those free agents could sign for, we used Evolving-Hockey’s contract projections. We’ll be honest, some teams had fewer attractive options than others and some of our picks (Fischer, Jarnkrok, Johnsson, Tierney) we view as bait for future trades or flips – some of which will help lower that 2021-22 cap that is over the limit with the featured projections. Also, while acknowledging there could be no shortage of side deals that influence these selections, we picked players with the expectation that they were who Seattle wanted without any constraints.

Here’s some of the players who stood out to us:

Carolina Hurricanes Defenceman Dougie Hamilton (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

DEFENSE:

Dougie Hamilton (D | Carolina Hurricanes)

We really like our defense overall, and Hamilton is arguably the cornerstone of that. He was a legitimate Norris candidate this past season, as he continues to have driven play while maintaining a positive defense impact. Any blue line would be lucky to have the skill that the right-handed back brings and according to Evolving-Hockey’s projection, that comes at a $8.5 million cap hit.

Mark Giordano (D | Calgary Flames)

Here’s our nod to the old school traditions of hockey. Giordano is in the older range of players we selected, and while that can raise some concern from a longevity perspective, he’s coming off a season where he had a team-high GAR of 12.7, which was also fifth best among all NHL defensemen. Add in a solid reputation as a leader - something a brand new team will need - and Giordano is a natural fit on and off the ice.

Shayne Gostisbehere (D | Philadelphia Flyers)

Just because the rest of the league passed on acquiring Gostisbehere when the Flyers put him on waivers doesn’t mean Seattle will. The leftie’s on ice impacts have slipped over the last two seasons, but a change of scenery should help him bounce back – so could time with Dave Hakstol, who was his bench boss for three and a half seasons earlier in his career.

Vince Dunn (D | St. Louis Blues)

Like Gostisbehere, there have been reports that the defender could be on the move. He isn’t really used in high leverage situations in St. Louis but has solid results in the minutes he’s played thus far in his career. The 24-year-old has the potential to help the Kraken grow on defense for years to come and gives some flexibility as he plays both the left and right side.

FORWARDS:

Josh Bailey (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

Josh Bailey (LW/RW | New York Islanders)

Unlike Gostisbehere and Dunn, Bailey’s availability is more of a surprise. The Islanders’ forward scores at the rate of a top-sixer and can provide two-way play on either wing. His versatility adds value as the veteran could shift around the lineup to wherever he’s most needed. If not Bailey, Seattle does have options from this squad; Jordan Eberle is also available and is the better option offensively if management feels they need more scoring up front.

Yanni Gourde (C/LW/RW | Tampa Bay Lightning)

While teams are throwing salary and term at Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow, the Kraken have the option of getting one of the most valuable pieces of that line for free. While he primarily played on the third line in Tampa Bay these last two seasons, Gourde could slot into most teams’ top-six, and can be deployed in all situations. Skating at either wing or center, the versatile forward creates offense both off the rush and forecheck, driving play with his passing and shooting. He gets to work every shift, pressuring for turnovers, and is defensively responsible despite his 5-foot-9 frame.

Philip Danault (C | Montreal Canadiens)

Danault may not be as high scoring as other top-six centers around the league, but he’s one of the best defensive centers right now which is why there’s going to be interest in him once free agency begins. Seattle gets to take a crack at him early, and Evolving-Hockey projects a $6.2 million cap hit. On a team of players put together just months before puck drop, Danault’s defensive play would be a source of stability. And with the right offensively inclined linemate, he could bolster his play on the other end of the ice too.

Andreas Athanasiou (C/LW/RW | LA Kings)

The knock on Athanasiou has always been that while he’s an offensive dynamo, his defensive play is non-existent. That’s still true, but paired with proper linemates, a team may be able to protect and utilize him in the proper way. He’s coming off a nice rebound last year and could be productive in the Pacific Northwest.

GOALTENDERS:

We approached our goaltending choices as a solution in its entirety more than thinking of each player one at a time. We wanted an established and seasoned veteran who understands and has experience with a true starter’s role. Enter Braden Holtby. He is still strong in net, and while costly, doesn’t have a Carey Price-esque contract. Holtby can provide stability in net while also being a mentor to Chris Dreidger. The young Panther is widely expected to join Seattle and his performance this past season gives a glimpse into what could be an exciting staple in net long term for the Kraken. He can play well in net as a backup while likely carrying a larger load than a traditional backup might, while preparing to become the eventual starter. Our third selection, Malcolm Subban, brings in a very solid security blanket in the number three spot. Subban has NHL experience at an affordable price.

Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, and CapFriendly

CENTRAL DIVISION PLAYOFF PREVIEW PART TWO: Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning – Potential Fireworks in the Sunshine State

Corey Sznajder — Fri, 14 May 2021 18:34:58 +0000

TAMPA, FL - MARCH 21: Florida Panthers center Aleksander Barkov (16) and Tampa Bay Lightning center Yanni Gourde (37) take a face off during the NHL Hockey match between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers on March 21, 2021 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)

Flipping the switch is a tough concept even if it makes sense in theory. You’re a team that knows you’re going to the playoffs and just need to not be terrible in order to make the Final Four. Your second best player is sitting out for the entire season, but you can still get by on talent alone because you still have the reigning Conn Smythe winner and one of the best goalies of the league to back you up. We’ve seen teams like the Blackhawks and Capitals go on Cup runs after underwhelming regular seasons and you can say that Tampa is looking to do the same.

Does anything need to be flipped, though? Well, it’s hard to say that there aren’t concerns. They never had a comfortable division lead despite being the best team on paper, they lost five out of eight games to Florida in the season series (which cost them home ice in the series) and they’re banking a lot on both Steven Stamkos & Nikita Kucherov being at full strength for Game 1 on Sunday. It’s not impossible they’re going to be the same machine they were in last year’s playoffs. After all, they’re running it back with mostly the same group and should get a fresh Kucherov for Round 1. It’s just that going by regular season results, Florida has outplayed them and they’re going to be a tough draw in Round 1.

The Panthers are perhaps the strangest “contender” to come out of this season. They’ve always had their key cogs in Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau & Aaron Ekblad on their blue line. They lost Ekblad to an unfortunate injury, but the other two have been carrying the team this year and they’ve done it with quite a unique supporting cast. Florida went out and made a bunch of low-risk signings before the year like Anthony Duclair, Carter Verhaeghe, Alex Wennberg and Gustav Forsling. They supplemented this at the trade deadline by adding Sam Bennett & Nikita Gusev. The result? Just Florida having one of the most high-powered offenses in the league.

Florida creates more shots off the rush than any team in the league. Yes, more than Colorado and Vegas. Before anyone asks if these are all just low-quality, perimeter shots, lets expand on it to look at scoring chances off zone entries.

NASHVILLE, TN - APRIL 27: Florida Panthers center Sam Bennett (9) skates with the puck during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Florida Panthers, held on April 27, 2021, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

Florida Additions Complete Offensive Force

There is no getting around it. The Florida Panthers have been excellent this year, at least when it comes to creating offense. Barkov is the engine that makes it go, but they did a great job of identifying players who can work with their two stars and it shows with how well Duclair & Verhaeghe have worked with Barkov when entering the zone. Veraeghe was an unproven player in Tampa Bay, but produced well relative to his ice-time. Meanwhile, Duclair’s one trick for his entire career was being able to get by defenders in the neutral zone & create quick strike chances. They have lived up to their scouting reports with the Panthers and then some, on pace to set career highs in points in full seasons.

So, Florida is going to get their looks off the rush regardless of which line they send out and even though Tampa is one of the better teams in the league at preventing rush chances, they’ve had a rough time in the season series against Florida, getting out-chanced 42-26 in those games. That doesn’t always carry over to the playoffs, but I’m sure Tampa has looked over into what they can do to slow Florida down. It’s still somewhat of a top-heavy team with Huberdeau’s line living and dying by how often his line can outscore their defensive problems. The Lightning might look at this series & think they can win if they survive the Barkov matchup even if that’s not how the season went for them. Florida’s still somewhat of a top-heavy team in terms of production even with how many shots they generate and they do lean on Barkov to play as much as a top-four defensemen in close games, so they’re likely going to go as far as he takes them.

The Kucherov/Stamkos Factor

The Kucherov/Stamkos factor throws an obvious wrinkle into anything that happened in the regular season and will probably have the most impact on how this series goes. The Lightning are also a tough team to analyze through manual tracking data because they’ve been able to defy odds by being one of the highest scoring teams in the league despite being one of worst teams at creating high danger passes. “High Danger passes” are plays that cross the slot or come from behind the net, as those have shown to lead to higher percentage shots. Tampa Bay gets by without relying on these because they have guys in motion everywhere. They’re one of the better teams in the league at creating passes from the middle & will often use their points to breakdown coverage through motion instead of forcing low-percentage plays. They also use a lot of rotation & movement up high to create more dangerous opportunities from areas that are usually wasted shots.

It’s all about creating advantages on the margins, which goes an even longer way when you’re a team as talented as Tampa Bay. Think of how often cross-seam plays are attempted in a hockey game, it’s usually four or five. Now think of how many of those passes are completed. One or two? Maybe more if you’re creating a lot of odd-man rushes? Point is, they’re not relying on plays that aren’t going to be open. Most teams take away the seam plays before anything else, so creative teams like the Lightning can work around this by creating better looks off low-to-high passing plays.

What’s one way of turning a point shot into a scoring chance? Switching off with a forward & doing a high cycle is one way, especially with how active the Lightning are at moving screens & having a presence in the slot. Creating enough space so your defenseman can either skate into the shot, one-time it or take a few steps to the middle to find a better shooting lane is another way, something that guys like Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev are very good at. Also watch the Panthers forwards defending in the video above. They are running around & exhausted by the time the play is over, so sustained possessions like this can be valuable to the Lightning even if they don’t score. With how much of the Panthers offense comes off the rush, it might lead to an even bigger advantage.

As fun and exciting as the Panthers are, Tampa at full strength is hard to bet against and there is a known advantage in net with Andrei Vasilevskiy over whatever combination of Sergei Bobrovsky/Chris Driedger that Florida goes with. An upset wouldn’t be shocking, but it’s hard to predict it with a high level of confidence. This is an easy pick to go seven games.

Stats are from Natural Stat Trick unless listed otherwise