Colin White – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Young Players Making a Mark, Significant Injuries and Impact

Scott Cullen — Fri, 21 Oct 2022 14:29:42 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

Although it is still quite early in the NHL season, there have been some developments worth tracking for fantasy managers. Nick Robertson, Cole Caufield, and Gabriel Vilardi are young players making a mark while Aaron Ekblad, Gabriel Landeskog, and Jakub Vrana are all going to miss significant time.

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 26: Toronto Maple Leafs Left Wing Nicholas Robertson (89) in action during the regular season NHL game between the Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs on April 26, 2022 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.(Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

#1 At the start of the season, the Toronto Maple Leafs demoted winger Nick Robertson to the American Hockey League, likely a victim of a salary cap crunch. The 2019 second-round pick has had some injuries, but he has also contributed 46 points (22 G, 24 A) in 51 AHL games, a strong indication that he should be able to produce in the NHL. Prior to this season, Robertson had a few stints with the Maple Leafs and had managed just one goal and one assist in 16 games, playing less than 10 minutes per game. That was his background before making his season debut for the Leafs against Dallas on Thursday night. Robertson skated on a line with John Tavares and William Nylander and scored a pair of goals, including the winner in overtime. He has a rocket shot and his speed stands out in the Maple Leafs lineup, so there is a real opportunity for Robertson to stick in a scoring role.

#2 Montreal Canadiens winger Cole Caufield has been a different player since Martin St. Louis took over behind the Habs bench last season. In 42 games since St. Louis was hired, Caufield has scored 40 points (26 G, 14 A), finishing at better than a 50-goal pace over 82 games. One reason to be particularly encouraged about Caufield’s play this season is that he has recorded 20 shots on goal in five games and averaging 4.0 shots per game is a significant jump (in a small sample) from the 3.1 per game that he averaged even with St. Louis as head coach last season.

#3 The Philadelphia Flyers have been an early surprise, thanks in large part to goaltender Carter Hart, who has a .943 save percentage in three starts. Hart entered the league with significant hype and provided better than average results for his first couple of seasons before things went sideways the past couple of years. He may not have great support in front of him this season, but there is still a chance for Hart to fulfill his vast potential.

#4 The Florida Panthers were dealt potentially devastating news when Aaron Ekblad landed on long-term injured reserve with a groin injury. The Panthers insist that it is not a season-ending injury but for a team that traded MacKenzie Weegar to Calgary in the offseason, losing Ekblad for months is going to test Florida’s blueline talent. Gustav Forsling, who has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in four games this season, is likely to become the prime offensive threat on the Panthers blueline, followed by Brandon Montour, who is dealing with his own upper-body injury right now.

#5 Detroit Red Wings left winger Jakub Vrana has entered the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. Any time a player goes into this program, the well-being of the player takes precedence over any potential timeline for return, so his absence must be considered indefinite. Vrana being out does figure to create an opportunity for Filip Zadina, the 22-year-old winger who has already been a healthy scratch early in the season. Zadina has produced 61 points (25 G, 36 A) in 161 career games, underwhelming numbers from the sixth pick in the 2018 Draft.

#6 It was already understood that Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog would not be ready for the start of the season but now word has come that he will be out for three months following knee surgery. That long-term absence is going to test Colorado’s forwards. Valeri Nichushkin is a prime candidate to step up in Landeskog’s absence. Nichushkin had a breakthrough season for the Avs in 2021-2022, scoring 52 points (25 G, 27 A) in 62 games and adding 15 points (9 G, 6 A) in 20 playoff contests. He has carried that into this season, putting up eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 15 shots on goal in the first four games.

#7 The 11^th pick in the 2017 Draft, Los Angeles Kings forward Gabriel Vilardi was supposed to be a playmaking center that would complement Anze Kopitar down the middle of the ice. Injuries sidetracked his career and there were probably some doubts about whether he was going to be a productive NHLer. Vilardi has found early success playing the wing this season, scoring seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 14 shots on goal in six games. He has struggled to generate shots consistently in previous turns with the Kings, so that is a stat worth monitoring to see if his early scoring might continue.

#8 Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin had a breakthrough season in 2021-2022, scoring a career-high 53 points (15 G, 38 A) and that might just be scratching the surface of his vast potential. The first pick in the 2018 Draft, Dahlin has started this season with six points (4 G, 2 A) and 16 shots on goal in four games. He will not continue to score at a goal-per-game pace but generating four shots on goal per game is encouraging for Dahlin’s long-term scoring potential. Some players need to be turned loose to bring out their best and Dahlin appears to be one of those players.

#9 After notching a hat trick against the Edmonton Oilers Thursday, Carolina Hurricanes winger Andrei Svechnikov is now tied for the goal-scoring lead, with six. Svechnikov also has 18 shots on goal in four games and putting up 4.5 shots per game would likely lead to the best goal-scoring output of his career. He scored a career high 30 goals last season when he averaged 3.2 shots on goal per game.

#10 Aside from changing their head coach, the Philadelphia Flyers did little to improve their team in the offseason, which meant that expectations were going to be higher for some players already on the roster. Travis Konecny might have been the poster boy for a skilled player from whom the Flyers needed more production, and he has responded early in this season. Through four games, Konecny is averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game and has six points (4 G, 2 A) and 15 shots on goal.

#11 It might be a good time to buy low on San Jose Sharks winger Timo Meier, who has no goals and two assists through six games. Meier also has launched 26 shots on goal, the most among skaters that have yet to record a goal this season. Los Angeles Kings winger Trevor Moore and Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner, with 20 shots, are next in line among forwards still seeking their first goal of the season.

#12 25-year-old Boston Bruins left winger A.J. Greer has struggled to earn a regular spot in the league since he was a second-round pick of the Colorado Avalanche in 2015. He is getting a chance to play with Boston this season and has five points (3 G, 2 A) and nine shots on goal in five games despite playing 10 minutes per game for the Bruins, ranking ahead of only Trent Frederic among Bruins skaters to appear in more than one game. Greer is not yet fantasy relevant but is worth watching to see if he can turn this into a longer stay in the National Hockey League.

#13 Although this season figures to be a painful one for the Arizona Coyotes, veteran defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere is getting ample opportunity to showcase his offensive skills. In four games, Gostisbehere has five points (2 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal. He is already minus-6 in four games, so he could be unplayable in leagues that count plus-minus but otherwise he ought to be a productive defenseman, even on a bad team.

#14 As the Florida Panthers remodeled their lineup in the offseason, it was easy enough to overlook their signing of Colin White, the 25-year-old who had his contract bought out by the Ottawa Senators. White is playing less than 12 minutes per game, almost exclusively with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen, but has contributed four points (2 G, 2 A) and six shots on goal in four games. Early production could give White a shot at moving up the Florida depth chart.

#15 The early leader in the rookie scoring race is Minnesota Wild defenseman Calen Addison, who has six assists in four games. A second-round pick of the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2018, Addison was acquired in the deal that sent winger Jason Zucker to the Penguins. Addison had 58 points (13 G, 45 A) in 77 AHL games and four points in 18 games with the Wild prior to this season. When the Wild traded veteran Dmitry Kulikov to Anaheim in the offseason, that opened the door for Addison to stick in the NHL.

#16 Injuries tend to hamper Seattle Kraken left winger Jaden Schwartz, but he remains a productive player when heathy. He has three points (2 G, 1 A) and 16 shots on goal through five games this season and is a consistent play-driver. So long as he can stay healthy, Schwartz should have some fantasy appeal.

#17 Coming into the season, the Boston Bruins looked like they would have a strong tandem in goal with Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. Ullmark has lived up to his end of the deal, posting a .938 save percentage in four games. Swayman has only played two games, but he has stopped just 40 of 49 shots in those two games, which is a .816 save percentage. Given those numbers, Ullmark would appear to have an early edge if the Bruins are going to lean towards the goaltender that is playing at a higher level.

#18 It is very early and even the best goalies can have down seasons, to say nothing of a few bad starts, but there are some goaltenders falling way short of their high expectations in the first few weeks of this season. Marc-Andre Fleury has a .813 save percentage, Thatcher Demko is at .861, Jacob Markstrom at .862, and Jack Campbell at .874. For fantasy managers, there is not much to be done with these goaltenders except to wait for better results because there is no value to be had in selling low at such an early stage of the season, especially on goaltenders that are going to hold No. 1 jobs.

#19 New York Islanders right winger Oliver Wahlstrom is still playing just 12 minutes per game, but the 11^th pick in the 2018 Draft has shown that he can put the puck in the net. In three games this season, he has four points (3 G, 1 A) and nine shots on goal. He is not going to keep scoring on one-third of his shots, but it would not be unreasonable to think that Wahlstrom is going to force his way into more playing time as the season goes along.

#20 Among players that have played at least 50 minutes this season, the leader in all-situations individual expected goals per 60 minutes is New Jersey Devils center Nico Hischier at 2.71, ahead of Matthew Tkachuk (2.39), Mika Zibanejad (2.29), Erik Haula (2.17), and Andrei Kuzmenko (2.17).

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – FLORIDA PANTHERS – NHL Player Profiles

Shawn Ferris – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 16:18:12 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - JANUARY 21: Florida Panthers center Aleksander Barkov (16) skates up ice during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on January 21, 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Aleksander Barkov

While the two-way center’s season was shortened to 67 games due to injury, 2021-22 was the best we’ve seen from Barkov yet. He was able to convert on a bit of a shooting binge, netting 39 goals, while adding 49 assists. As a career-long Panther, he was a driving force behind the offensive machine in Sunrise last season, but he was also the shutdown force that the Panthers needed up late in games. At 6-foot-3, he has both the size and the smarts to be effective in the interior in all three zones. Barkov also has impressive stick skills, intercepting passes and forcing turnovers on the boards. Plus, his abilities translate to the bumper on the powerplay as well as penalty killing duties. Barkov’s career-high in points was 96 in 2018-19, and he’ll be looking to break 100 points for the first time in his career in 2022-23.

Matthew Tkachuk

The twenty-four-year-old from Scottsdale, Arizona is one of the leagues premier young forwards, and he showed that last season. Everything seemed to click on a line with Elias Lindholm and Johnny Gaudreau. In close to 1,000 minutes at 5-on-5 last season, the trio outscored their opponents 73-31. With Johnny Gaudreau heading to Columbus, Tkachuk levered his rights as a restricted free agent to pull off a sign-and-trade to Florida. Tkachuk is a coach’s dream. He loves to get himself engaged on the forecheck, and he hunts after rebounds too. He might be known for his antics after the play, but he’s effective between the whistles as well. He put the puck in the back of the net 42 times last season. 11 of those were on the powerplay where he was a merchant around the net. With his dogged ability to retrieve pucks, complemented by his finishing and playmaking skills, he is a force to be reckoned with.

Sam Reinhart

For a recent second overall pick, Sam Reinhart has generally fallen out of the spotlight. After playing in Buffalo for the first seven seasons of his career, Reinhart was sent to Florida to play with the only player picked ahead of him in the 2014 draft. Reinhart doesn’t have much flash in his game. He’s a responsible player defensively and stays out of the box. He’s production is also quiet. He scored 33 goals and 49 assists in 78 games last season. He converted on 16 of his 40 shots on goal on the powerplay last season – a staggering but unsustainable percentage. His intelligence as a playmaker, as well as his finishing ability, always made him a threat to be dangerous on the powerplay. Unlike in Buffalo, he had the tools surrounding him to see that come to life. Don’t be surprised if his production dips back down a bit this season, but you can depend on a solid two-way performance.

Sam Bennett

The 2014 fourth overall pick was traded to Florida from Calgary in 2021 after a disappointing start to his NHL career. Playing in the bottom-six, Bennett’s future looked bleak. Only in his rookie season had he ever broken 30 points. In his first season in Florida, he hit career highs in goals and assists with 28 and 21 respectively, as well as hitting his 100-career goal and assist milestones. Unlike in years past where he was given a weaker set of teammates, Bennett spent close to two-thirds of his 5-on-5 minutes with Jonathan Huberdeau. In a more offensive role where he wouldn’t be asked to drive the play as much, Bennett was able to flourish. As long as Bennett is given the same offensive usage under Paul Maurice, one could expect this to continue. However, it remains a question mark as to whether or not Bennett could handle a more similar role to what he had in Calgary again.

Carter Verhaeghe

With the Tampa Bay Lightning having too many riches, Carter Verhaeghe signed with Florida in the fall of 2021. After a breakout first season with the Panthers in 2021, Verhaeghe continued that success in 2021-22 with 24 goals and 31 assists in 78 games. Verhaeghe brings a lot of his value in the transition game. He’s effective with the puck, exiting his own zone and entering the opponent’s zone. He’s also terrific at angling the play into danger on the forecheck, and is committed on the backcheck. He’s also a terrific finisher, converting on 51 of his 331 career shots on goal. He’s a terrific complementary winger for Aleksander Barkov. He does need to work on staying out of the box a bit more as he took 24 minor penalties last season while only drawing 14.

Anthony Duclair

Anthony Duclair was a misfit toy prior to signing in Florida in the fall of 2020. He spent time with five different teams before turning twenty-five. The main criticism with Duclair has always been the defensive side of the game. How much of it was a lack of commitment as opposed to his struggle to execute lies with his coaches. However, the Panthers were much more focused on the offensive treasures that Duclair holds. His speed and skill is undeniable. Duclair is a threat on the rush as well as offensive zone play. With a career-high 18.6% shooting percentage last season, Duclair was able to score 31 goals playing mostly alongside Jonathan Huberdeau and Sam Bennett. The exit of the former may hurt Duclair at 5-on-5, but may also open up the opportunity for a bigger role on the powerplay as well.

Anton Lundell

Despite not being in the Calder conversation, Anton Lundell had a terrific rookie season. At twenty years of age, the 6-foot-1 center scored 18 goals and 26 assists in just over 1,000 minutes. Despite his youth, Lundell was given a third line center role which included a healthy dose of defensive assignments. Lundell’s intelligence, creativity, and comfort in tight areas is what caught the eyes of scouts when he was a teenager. The one drawback to his game was that he lacked the skating abilities to be a high-end NHL center. In his draft-plus-two season, he was trusted by the Panthers’ coaching staff to take on close to 12% defensive zone starts and 150 shorthanded minutes. Given his ability to impact the game in many different ways, it’s unlikely he’ll suffer from a sophomore slump.

Nick Cousins

After spending two seasons with the Nashville Predators, Nick Cousins found himself signing with the Florida Panthers this July. The 5-foot-11 winger has never been a producer in the NHL. He has only recorded 10 goals twice and has yet to clear 30 points once in his first eight seasons. What keeps the twenty-nine-year-old around is his dependability on the ice. Despite not having blow-it-by-you speed, Cousins is an effective player in transition. He feels comfortable carrying the puck into the offensive zone, something that has also helped earn him time on various powerplay units. He’s also a decent forechecker and backchecker. He also draws far more penalties than he takes, drawing 70 more minor penalties than he’s taken in 444 career games. With many offensively talented forwards ahead of Cousins, we’ll see if he picks up penalty killing duties or if he has his special teams time limited in Florida.

Rudolfs Balcers

After spending two seasons with the team, the San Jose Sharks decided not to qualify the Latvian forward, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent where he signed with Florida. The former fifth round pick won’t jump off the sheet at you. He has 57 points in 153 career games. At times, he can leave you wanting a bit more. He seems to have a fair shot, but doesn’t seem to shoot enough. However, he has very few errors in his own zone and excels in transition, somewhat of a theme with the Panthers. While the Sharks seemed to want to take a rugged, do-it-yourself culture in their rebuild, Balcers didn’t fit that culture. With the Panthers, he hopes to find success starting in a third- or fourth-line role where he feels he can fit into the system more. There is an opening on the second line alongside Bennett and Reinhart but will have some competition for it.

DEFENSE

Aaron Ekblad

Aaron Ekblad was on his way to a Norris contention type of season before a midseason injury took away quite a few games from him. However, after putting up 57 points in 61 games in 2021-22, he’ll be looking to have a go at the likes of Cale Makar and Roman Josi this season. Ekblad has offensive instincts that only a few defensemen have. He takes high-quality shots and converts on them too. He’ll likely score his 100^th goal this season as long as nothing catastrophic happens. He’s also terrific defensively, closing gaps in the neutral zone, breaking up cycles in the defensive zone, and moving the puck up ice after he retrieves loose pucks. Ekblad will be losing his defensive partner in MacKenzie Weegar, but as an elite defenseman, and with such a great cast of forwards, Ekblad should be fine.

Brandon Montour

When Brandon Montour was sent to Florida, he had trouble fitting in on his previous teams. His poor defensive play caused headaches for his coaching staff. Despite being a player that was terrific with the puck on his stick, particularly in transition, he was a completely different player without the puck. The Panthers’ coaching staff didn’t try to change that, but embraced it instead. While Montour is still weak defensively, he has complete freedom to take risks and make plays. The coaching staff also put him in offensive situations, including having 16.1% of his shifts start in the offensive zone compare to 6.2% in the defensive zone. The result was a career-high 11 goals and 37 points last season. He has regained the reputation he once had as a young defenseman with the Ducks, and will look to fight to play alongside Aaron Ekblad if he can this season.

Gustav Forsling

If you pay close attention, the Swede will leave your mouth wide-open in amazement at times. Forsling is a steady, quiet transition defenseman. He sees the ice very well when breaking out the puck or on neutral zone regroups. Surrounded by a forward corps that transitions well, Forsling found himself at home in Florida. Just like many Panthers, Forsling scored a career-high 10 goals and 27 assists in 71 games last season. Since heading to Florida, he’s also seen much more penalty killing duties. His skating and smarts help him be successful in that role, closing gaps on entry, retrieving pucks, as well as occasionally setting up a shorthanded chance. He may be overshadowed, but watch for the finer details in Forsling’s game that make him a fun player to watch.

Radko Gudas

Radko Gudas is known by NHL fans for his beard and his ability to throw the body around. He’s also an effective player, particularly defensively. For a player who is great at moving the player up the ice like Forsling, Gudas is a great complementary player. While the occasional big hit will make the highlight reel, Gudas has incredible gap control shift after shift, forcing his opponents to play the puck in deep. Gudas also uses his physicality to break up cycles in his own end as well as clear out the front of his own net. The drawback in Gudas’ game has always been offensively. His insistence on taking low-quality shots from the point can be predatory in nature, especially when playing with a good setoff forwards.

Marc Staal

With the Florida Panthers losing in the second round in four games despite winning the President’s Trophy, they were due to add a veteran. Thirty-six-year-old Marc Staal was their guy. While a once very effective defenseman who logged a lot of minutes for the New York Rangers, Staal isn’t quite that player any more. In Detroit, he played a simple depth role, only seeing the ice a little over 17 minutes per game. Staal will stay within his own bounds, playing much more of a defensive game on the third pair. He will also pick up penalty killing duties given his intelligence as well as his courage to get in shooting lanes. If you don’t hear Marc Staal’s name on a given night, that will probably be a good thing as most of his value will be in the room and off of the ice.

GOALTENDING

Sergei Bobrovsky

Still feels a little surreal that Florida handed out what might very well be the last behemoth goaltending contract we’ll see for the foreseeable future, particularly given what they’ve gotten from Sergei Bobrovsky as a result. The now-33-year-old starter, who looked to be one of the most impressive goaltending talents in the league when he hit free agency in the summer of 2019, has flirted with the upper tier of ‘good’ for all three of the seasons he’s played down in South Beach.

Luckily, Florida hasn’t needed him to be anything more than that, though, and he’s failed to really look like a mistake for the team that drafted him outside of the first few months that he played in Florida. It took some time for him to adapt his game to Florida’s style, which thrives on perimeter defense and opening up sightlines rather than bodying snipers out of the way of rebounds. But once he got into the swing of things, he’s been average at worst and quietly dangerous at best; he’s likely not worth his contract when looked at in a vacuum, but he hasn’t been such a boon on the team’s night-by-night outcomes that fans are begging for a buyout. And while his regular season performance was just fine, with a few too many nights that saw him struggle to recover in tie for second shots that slipped past him and into the net, his post-season performance – which wasn’t Conn Smythe worthy, but was reasonably consistent – suggested that the experience he brings to the table should still be a value to the Panthers while they wait for Spencer Knight to fully get his skates under him.

Projected starts: 40-45

Spencer Knight

It was hard to fall in love with Spencer Knight’s premier performance during the 2022-23 season. After dazzling scouts with his mature-beyond-his-years style and seemingly unshakeable confidence at the junior and collegiate levels, the American-born first rounder fell a little flat in his first full season of NHL hockey. He didn’t look lost, but he did look inconsistent – which almost felt a little more disconcerting after so many years of performances that suggested Knight didn’t know the meaning of second-guessing his own intuition. He hit right around the league average in quality start percentage, but the whopping six starts he recorded that dipped below the .850 save percentage threshold made it hard to feel quite as good about the games where he did hold his own.

His struggles weren’t necessarily hard to diagnose. When he fell short, it was in games where his opponents seemed to get a read on his rhythm early on and capitalized on it, throwing shots into holes that they predicted he would leave open based on the structure and speed of his game. He still read his opponents well and didn’t necessarily look like he was mistiming his game or falling into a panicked habit of sloppy movements or easy cheats. But he also didn’t seem to be comfortable enough evaluating the timing of redirects and NHL shooter decision-making to get creative and add an element of surprise to his technique; he lacked that extra gear that made him so special at the lower levels, allowing teams to beat him with trickier shots and derail his game early on. That’s something he should be able to outgrow as he gains more experience, especially given how effectively he’s studied timing and shooting in the past. But it still felt a little disappointing to see America’s most hotly-anticipated young talent come into the league with a fizzle rather than a bang.

Projected starts: 40-45

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Jake DeBrusk’s surprising emergence, Andrew Copp, Josh Anderson, Nico Hischier, and more.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 04 Mar 2022 15:40:49 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Jake DeBrusk’s surprising emergence, Andrew Copp, Josh Anderson, Nico Hischier, and more.

OTTAWA, ON - FEBRUARY 19: Boston Bruins Left Wing Jake DeBrusk (74) skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Boston Bruins on February 19, 2022 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Early in the season, Boston Bruins winger Jake DeBrusk seemed lost and, seeking a fresh start, requested a trade. He did not get the trade and now has landed a plum role playing on the right wing of the top line alongside Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. DeBrusk is delivering results, too, putting up nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 22 shots on goal in the past seven games.

#2 One of the players getting a lot of buzz as the NHL Trade Deadline approaches, Winnipeg Jets forward Andrew Copp recently returned from injury and has produced 30 points (13 G, 17 A) in 48 games. He has also generated a career high 2.75 shots on goal per game and that offensive activity, paired with Copp’s ability to play just about anywhere in the lineup – center, wing, scoring line, checking role – explains why the pending unrestricted free agent is drawing a lot of trade interest. For fantasy managers, it might be worth a speculative add of Copp now, before he lands in a new home where his offensive upside could get a boost.

#3 Sticking with Winnipeg, Jets center Adam Lowry is offering enough offense recently to have some fantasy appeal. In the past seven games, Lowry has six points (4 G, 2 A) and he has put up 157 hits in 54 games so if there is any kind of adequate scoring contributions, Lowry’s hit totals could make him appealing in deep leagues.

#4 Montreal Canadiens right winger Josh Anderson recorded a hat trick in Winnipeg Monday, giving the power horse seven points (6 G, 1 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past seven games. There has been some discussion about whether the soon-to-be-rebuilding Canadiens would move Anderson but if he is scoring, there is likely a spot for him in the Montreal lineup because his physical play serves as a strong complement to linemates Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.

#5 Columbus Blue Jackets right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand quietly goes about his business and, with nine points (6 G, 3 A) and 27 shots on goal in the past 11 games, Bjorkstrand is up to 18 goals in 52 games. For fantasy managers, Bjorkstrand adds value with his physical play, delivering 59 hits in 52 games. His career high is 64 hits in 82 games during the 2017-2018 season, so it seems very likely that Bjorkstrand will surpass that number while scoring 25+ goals by season’s end.

#6 While Jack Hughes gets more of the spotlight in New Jersey, Nico Hischier is giving the Devils another scoring option in the middle of the ice. In his past nine games, the Devils captain has produced 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 23 shots on goal, thriving on a line with Pavel Zacha and Jesper Bratt.

#7 Devils rookie Dawson Mercer has recently been moved to right wing on the top line, skating with Jack Hughes and Yegor Sharangovich. Mercer has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past eight games. That shot total is rather low, but Mercer is now tied with Nashville Predators winger Tanner Jeannot for sixth in rookie scoring with 32 points.

#8 A player for deep league managers to keep an eye on down the stretch could be Ottawa Senators center Colin White, who had missed most of this season after suffering a shoulder injury in the preseason. In his first three games after recovering from surgery, White has a couple of points but also has 12 shots on goal and has a role on Ottawa’s second power play unit.

#9 Anaheim Ducks veteran Adam Henrique is heating up, scoring six points (4 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal in the past five games. Skating on a line with Ryan Getzlaf and Troy Terry, the five-time 20-goal scorer is in a decent spot to provide offense for Anaheim.

#10 A four-point night against Toronto last Saturday lifted Detroit Red Wings defenseman Filip Hronek to 12 points (2 G, 10 A) in his past 17 games. With 28 points in 50 games, Hronek is now scoring at a career-best per-game rate (0.56 points per game).

#11 It is easy for rookie defensemen to get overlooked, especially if they are not Moritz Seider of the Detroit Red Wings, because Seider is a leading contender for the Calder Trophy. However, there are other freshman defensemen that are contributing offensively, too. Anaheim’s Jamie Drysdale (3 G, 20 A in 56 GP), Nashville’s Alexandre Carrier (2 G, 18 A in 49 GP), Los Angeles’ Sean Durzi (2 G, 13 A in 37 GP), and Toronto’s Timothy Liljegren (1 G, 10 A in 37 GP) are chipping in. Colorado’s Bowen Byram (5 G, 6 A in 18 GP) was impressive before his season was derailed by concussions. Arizona’s J.J. Moser (3 G, 7 A in 27 GP) has had positive early results, too.

#12 Although he does not score nearly as much as he did during the seasons when he quarterbacked the Buffalo Sabres power play, Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is a category monster. Since returning from the December schedule pause, Ristolainen has 81 hits in 20 games. The only defensemen with a higher hits-per-game average since the pause are Radko Gudas and Luke Schenn.

#13 Looking for a fresh start in Arizona, after a terrible start to the season in Toronto, Coyotes left winger Nick Ritchie has two points (1 G, 1 A), seven shots on goal and 12 hits in his first three games for the Coyotes. No need to race to the fantasy waiver wire for him just yet but Arizona should be invested in Ritchie having a role on their team next season so they might give him a good opportunity to play an important role down the stretch.

#14 With 14 goals in 53 games, Arizona Coyotes left winger Lawson Crouse is one away from matching his career high. He is also one of seven forwards to have more than 10 goals and more than 150 hits. The others are Nashville’s Tanner Jeannot, Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk, Washington’s Garnet Hathaway, Nashville’s Luke Kunin, Washington’s Tom Wilson, and Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno.

#15 In the history of the National Hockey League, there have been five seasons in which a forward has had less than five goals and more than 30 assists. One of those seasons is happening right now, as Blue Jackets winger Jakub Voracek has just two goals to go with 38 assists. That ratio is the highest of assists-to-goals for a forward ever (minimum 20 assists), surpassing Henrik Sedin’s 2017-2018 season when he had three goals and 47 assists.

#16 While the Boston Bruins have spent much of this season seeking a second line center to replace the departed David Krejci, they might have stumbled onto something recently with Erik Haula. The veteran forward has been skating between Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak and is on a five-game point streak, during which he has contributed seven points (2 G, 5 A).

#17 In his sixth NHL season, St. Louis Blues forward Ivan Barbashev has erupted, setting career highs in goals (17) and points (41). He has been a useful depth player for the Blues prior to this season but Barbashev’s ice time is up more than three-and-a-half minutes per game from last season and he has responded to the bigger role by producing. While Barbashev is not likely to keep scoring on 20.5% of his shots over the long haul, he also offers added fantasy value with 89 hits in 52 games.

#18 When looking at Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals for individual skaters, there are a dozen players that have exceeded their expected goals by more than six. That list includes Boston’s David Pastrnak, Columbus’ Patrik Laine, Nashville’s Filip Forsberg, Colorado’s Gabriel Landeskog, St. Louis’ Brayden Schenn, Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Buffalo’s Tage Thompson, Toronto’s Auston Matthews, New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt, St. Louis’ Jordan Kyrou, Detroit’s Dylan Larkin, and the Rangers’ Mika Zibanejad. Some of these players are elite finishers, so they should be expected to outscore the expected goals model, but they also might be due for some statistical regression, too.

#19 On the other hand, there are some notable forwards that are well below their individual expected goals. That group includes Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk, Toronto’s John Tavares, Boston’s Patrice Bergeron, Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher, Arizona’s Phil Kessel, Los Angeles’ Trevor Moore, Seattle’s Jordan Eberle, Vancouver’s Nils Hoglander, Calgary’s Mikael Backlund, as well as Edmonton’s Jesse Puljujarvi and Warren Foegele.

#20 At this stage of the season it can be difficult to find goaltending value on the fantasy waiver wire, but there are some backups worth keeping on your radar. Since the December schedule pause, Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (.947 SV%), Washington’s Vitek Vanecek (.937 SV%), St. Louis’ Ville Husso (.934 SV%), Ottawa’s Anton Forsberg (.930 SV%), Colorado’s Pavel Francouz (.926 SV%), the Islanders’ Semyon Varlamov (.923 SV%), and Minnesota’s Kaapo Kahkonen (.923 SV%) have all had positive results. Some, like Swayman, might be taking the starting role but most are still trying to carve out any kind of bigger role with their respective teams.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

Sens-Less – Ottawa Senators 2018-19 Season Preview

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 17:50:53 +0000

REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – The Ottawa Senators are perhaps a team that could be best described with a long sigh. The worst part is that it wasn’t so long-ago things looked alright for the Senators. They were a single win away from the Stanley Cup Final in 2017 and while you could easily argue that they over performed, at least they went into 2017-18 looking like a franchise that was trending in the right direction.

Everything that could have gone wrong for the Senators last season, did go wrong, including some things that you would have never even considered. The team finished with a 28-43-11 record and instead of being on the brink of contending, are now in a position where they need to rebuild. To make matters worse, just before the Senators’ collapse, they traded an unprotected first round pick for Matt Duchene, so no matter how badly they do in 2018-19, the Colorado Avalanche will control the Senators’ 2019 first round draft pick.

AND IT GETS WORSE – The Ottawa Senators began their rebuild before the 2017-18 campaign ended by trading Derick Brassard to the Pittsburgh Penguins as part of a three-way trade to get, among other things, Pittsburgh’s 2018 first-round pick. Brassard’s contract extends through 2018-19, so trading him away was about more than just Ottawa’s position last season.

After the campaign, the Ottawa Senators dealt away another top-six forward in Mike Hoffman. The reasons for trading Hoffman was due to off-ice matters that are probably best not discussed here, but the consequence of Ottawa being in a position where it had to trade Hoffman was that the Senators got far less than normal market value for him.

Although at the time of writing there hasn’t been another trade by the Senators since they dealt Hoffman, that might not be the end of it. Goaltender Craig Anderson reportedly requested a trade, though he said in late August that he’s fine staying in Ottawa so long as there isn’t any drama. Of more pressing importance is the matter of Erik Karlsson, who can become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019. If the Senators aren’t confident in their ability to re-sign him, then it’s important that he be dealt before the trade deadline to avoid suffering a fate similar to the New York Islanders’ with John Tavares.

Speaking of pending UFAs, Mark Stone and Matt Duchene also fall into that category. So, the Senators’ front office has a lot of work ahead of them.

IS THERE A SILVER LINING? – There’s not much of one in the near-term, but no franchise is without hope and that is true of the Ottawa Senators as well. First off, you could work out a scenario where the Senators end up exceeding their low expectations this season with Karlsson and Duchene leading the charge, Marian Gaborik staying healthy, and one of Anderson or Mike Condon bouncing back to provide the team with solid goaltending. However, rather than trying to envision an unlikely, albeit not impossible, set of circumstances where the Senators might have a passable season, it’s probably better to think about their future.

Not having control of their first-round pick in 2019 is embarrassing for the Senators given their circumstances. The upside though is that they do have some promising prospects already in their franchise with two of the most notable ones being Logan Brown and Brady Tkachuk. Both might end up as members of the 2018-19 squad and provide a silver lining in what might be an otherwise difficult season.

The Senators also could potentially turn Karlsson and Duchene into significant prospects/picks through trades that would meaningfully push forward their rebuilding efforts. A trade involving Stone would certainly serve that purpose as well, but the ideal would be to re-sign him to serve as a leader for the next generation given that he’s still just 26-years-old.

Ottawa also only has three players under one-way contracts beyond 2019-20 in Bobby Ryan, Gaborik, and Zack Smith. While in one respect that’s part of the problem, that also gives the Senators a lot of flexibility with how they shape their team going forward and opens the door to Ottawa potentially engaging in trades that involve them taking on some cap burden in exchange for more picks/prospects.

OUTLOOK – This is likely going to be a difficult season for Ottawa on the ice, but an interesting one on the trade front. The moves that are made in the next few months could define the Senators for years to come and for that reason, the Senators are a franchise to keep an eye on even if not much is expected of them right now.

Ottawa Senators Prospect System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 17:49:27 +0000

I am sure that it comes as no surprise to you, the knowledgeable hockey fan, to read that the Ottawa Senators are in a bad place as an organization. Owner Eugene Melnyk meddling and bumbling through PR faux pas to the point that the team had to hire a PR firm for damage control; suspended assistant GM Randy Lee being arrested in Buffalo on salubrious harassment charges from an incident which occurred during the NHL Draft combine; the ongoing spat between former Senator Mike Hoffman (and his fiancée) and Senators’ super star Erik Karlsson (and his wife) that resulted in the former player being dealt to San Jose for a paltry return (who then traded him to Florida – an Ottawa division rival – for a greater return than he paid in the original acquisition); the ill-fated Matt Duchene trade, which, among other pieces, cost the Senators their 2017 first round pick Shane Bowers, as well as their choice of fist rounder in 2018 or 2019 – they chose to keep the 2018 pick.

It is still unclear if the team can hold on to Erik Karlsson, whose current contract is set to expire after the 2018-19 season and the word on the street is that has been frustrated by the direction and leadership of the franchise and would prefer to move on.

None of the above is necessarily news, or even really about prospects, per se. But it leads to the essential question, what comes next?

The Sens are largely expected to struggle this season, a projection that would not have been much different had Hoffman not been traded. It can be dangerous for any team to trade away its first round pick – especially without lottery protection – a full season in advance. Sure, San Jose has also moved its 2019 first rounder, but no one is really worried about that pick turning into Jack Hughes, or Kaapo Kakko, or any other top flight 2019 draft eligible.

For Ottawa, the presence of Matt Duchene may have the same impact as Tom Kurvers did for Toronto from 1989-1991, or Phil Kessel did for the same provincial rivals between 2009-2015. For those who forgot the recent history, Toronto traded a future to New Jersey for Kurvers, but their season did not turn out as they had expected internally and the pick turned into Scott Niedermayer, who now has a plaque in his honor in Toronto’s Hockey Hall of Fame. Kessel came to the Maple Leafs for two future first round picks. Because Brian Burke badly misjudged his squad’s place on the success cycle, both picks were top 10s, turning into Tyler Seguin (second overall) and Dougie Hamilton (ninth overall).

Unless Craig Anderson finds the fountain of youth for the third time at age 37, the Senators might not get their reward for being among the worst teams in the league. With top prospects Colin White and Brady Tkachuk expected in some circles to graduate from prospecthood this season, and no first round pick on deck, the Senators might need to trade Karlsson to have any truly high end prospects still in the pipeline. Without some combination of luck and shrewd management, neither of which has been associated with Ottawa for some time, the organization may be beginning a stretch of ugliness reminiscent of what divisional rival Buffalo Sabres had being going through for the past five seasons.

Brady Tkachuk

1 Brady Tkachuk, LW (4^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) Son of Keith and brother of Matthew, Brady Tkachuk has the blood lines as well as the skill set and mentality to play a key role on a winning NHL team. He has a big, strong frame and plays a power game, but with soft enough hands to make tricky plays and surprise with a feint as he powers his way to the net or through the cycle. In addition to having all of the raw tools one could ask for in a young winger, his sense for the game may have been the best among anyone in the 2018 draft class. He did not dominate, but played at a very high level as a true freshman in the NCAA – one of the youngest players in collegiate hockey. He recently announced that he would leave BU and has a good chance to spend the year in the NHL, although AHL and OHL are still possibilities.

2 Logan Brown, C (11^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 3^rd) Between Brown and Tkachuk, the future Senators will not lack for size up front. Thankfully, these two also fit the bill for the modern game with skills and mobility to go with their bulk. For the second straight year, Brown was held back by injuries, but when he was healthy, took his game to another level, scoring more frequently, leading Kitchener deep into the OHL playoffs one year after helping Windsor win the Memorial Cup. He even looked good in his truncated appearance for Team USA at the WJC. The most impressive facets of his game are his soft and skilled hands, and his hockey IQ. He has a pro game, but the lost development time may make his path to the NHL slower than hoped.

3 Colin White, RW/C (21^st overall, 2015. Last Year: 2^nd) A fantastic skater with plus hockey sense, White started last season in the NHL, but shelved due to a wrist injury. Upon his recovery, he went back to the AHL, where he was often the best player on the ice for Belleville, earning a lengthy recall to Ottawa that encompassed the first six weeks of 2018. He has above average offensive tools as well, although they are not as notable as his reads and decision making. He can play both on the wing and up the middle and is likely to win a bottom six role to open this season. His history with Boston College and the USNTDP before that suggests that he could eventually work his way up to a second line role although third line on a good team is most likely.

4 Filip Gustavsson, G (55^th overall, 2016 [Pittsburgh]. Last Year: 2^nd [Pittsburgh]) There were a lot of moving parts in the three way deadline deal that sent Derrick Brassard from Ottawa to Pittsburgh, but it is fair to summarize the return to Ottawa as being a late first round pick (Bernard-Docker) and Gustavsson, who now wears the mantle of “Goalie of the Future” for the Senators. A very athletic netminder who is advanced at reading the play, he was coming off a strong season in Sweden, both domestically with Lulea, and internationally, backstopping Sweden to a Silver Medal at the WJC. His movements are quick and precise and allow him to challenge shooters aggressively knowing he can recover if needed. He should get at least one season in the AHL before the future becomes the present in Ottawa.

Alex Formenton

5 Alex Formenton, LW (47^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 11^th) One of the fastest skaters in the OHL last year, Formenton was so impressive in the pre-season for Ottawa that he broke camp in the NHL shortly after his 18^th birthday and played in one game before being returned to London. He is still young enough, and talented enough, that he was one of the few legit prospects not traded by the Knights as they began to regroup. Despite his near-elite speed, Formenton is not a great offensive threat. That is not to say that he is not a contributor to the attack, but that offense is generally not the focus of his game. He is a defensive specialist and fights a lot harder than his lean figure might suggest. A PK weapon, he also began to show a creative side with the puck last year and may have more to offer at that end given time.

6 Drake Batherson, C (121^st overall, 2017. Last Year: 12^th) A late bloomer who keeps on blooming, Batherson went from the Maritime Junior Hockey League to a top six role with a competitive QMJHL team to a national hero in the space of 24 months. Despite scoring seven goals (without a single assist) in seven games at the WJC he is more of a playmaker than a finisher. On the other hand, he has incredible hand-eye coordination and could build for himself a long NHL career if all he does is park himself in the slot and wait for shots to deflect. He has a solid frame, but needs to add more bulk to play that role as a professional. Could also stand to improve his skating, although he has a nice burst of speed available.

7 Jonny Tychonick, D (48^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) A dominant two-way defender for the Penticton Vees of the BCHL for the past two seasons, Tychonick was a rare Tier 1 player to receive consideration for the Canadian U18 squad. He catches the eye with his fantastic skating acumen and backs it up with a solid point shot and great puck control. He is on the lean side and it can be hard to adequately gauge the hockey sense of players playing in lower quality development leagues, but to his credit, he made the best of the path that he was on. The North Dakota commit was also entrusted with time killing penalties and shifts against the toughest competition the BCHL had to offer. He is at least three years away from NHL, but has enough upside to be worth waiting on.

8 Jacob Bernard-Docker, D (26^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) Like Tychonick above, Jacob Bernard-Docker was a cut above as a dominant blueliner in Tier 1 in Western Canada. Named the Most Outstanding Defenseman in the AJHL, JBD has a full set of tools, grading out as above average in terms of his mobility and with anything a defenseman might do with the puck. Although a bit beefier than Tychonick, Bernard-Docker is less likely to use his frame to physically impose himself on opponents. Although less dynamic than his new organization mate and soon to be teammate at the University of North Dakota, Bernard-Docker is more advanced in his own zone. He is skilled at shutting down opposing attacks and beginning the transition. He is the safer prospect of the two, and not without upside of his own.

9 Johnny Gruden, LW (95^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) Every year the USNTDP has a few players in middle six or bottom six roles who thrive once the hackles are taken off at the collegiate level. Johnny Gruden, whose father just coached the Hamilton Bulldogs to an OHL title, is most notable for his hockey smarts, but there is enough skill in his stick to be a pretty big factor at Miami starting next season. A lot of his offense with the program came from sensing where to position himself and when to strike. He does a lot of small, subtle things to help his game play up. He also has sneaky speed, helping him get to where he needs to go and trip up opponents on occasion when he suddenly changes gears.

10 Christian Wolanin, D (107^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 13^th) An NCAA champ as a freshman, Wolanin improved his produced for North Dakota year over year before turning pro after his junior season. He is not the fleetest of foot, although his first few steps are fairly impressive. His production comes as a traditional point man of sorts. He has a quick release on his snap shot, which can find twine or get a rebound. He is willing to step up past the faceoff dots and has the vision to hit a teammate in a better scoring area. He was an offense first defenseman as a collegian, and a brief NHL trial showed that he could play that game in the NHL, and there seems to be room for him in the NHL rotation right now. He will likely need to be protected somewhat as his defensive zone game is a bit on the raw side.

11 Aaron Luchuk, C (UDFA: Dec. 26, 2017. Last Year: IE) Never drafted, Luchuk spent three and a half seasons with the Windsor Spitfires, playing a critical role in their 2017 Memorial Cup victory, before he was traded to the Barrie Colts in mid-December. He was already only seven points away from a career high, but his season would only get better. Much better. He already had 51 points in 30 games at the time of the trade. 11 days later, he signed an ELC as a free agent with Ottawa, and finished the season with 81 more points in 50 regular season and postseason games with Barrie. Despite the sensational point totals, he lacks dynamic offensive skills, although does everything pretty well. His size also works against him, although he is willing to fight for space and loose pucks. He is a player, if probably not a high end one.

Andreas Englund

12 Andreas Englund, D (40^th overall, 2014. Last Year: 9^th) Very big, but very impressive afoot, especially for his size, Englund has been hampered thus far in his career by his complete lack of any offensive elements to his game. He is clearly more comfortable playing in his own zone as he has played the role of stay-at-home blueliner since his amateur days. Englund’s puck skills extend as far as retrieving the puck and getting to a teammate, who can get it out of the Belleville end. He has had a few short NHL cups of coffee in each of the last two years since coming over from Sweden, and should be in line for a bit more this season.

13 Patrick Sieloff, D (Trade: Jun. 27, 2016 [Calgary]. Last Year: not ranked) Acquired from Calgary two summers ago for Alex Chaisson, Sieloff has played in a single NHL game for both NHL organizations to which he has belonged, and scored a goal in each. That statistical fluke aside, offense is not really his jam. Sieloff is built thick and plays tough, sometimes overly so. He can get in trouble with his aggressiveness, such as when he concussed teammate Clarke MacArthur in training camp. He also skates well, getting to top speed rapidly and is reliably competent in his own zone. He is primed to battle it out this year for the distinction of opening camp as the team’s #6/7 defender.

14 Maxime Lajoie, D (133^rd overall, 2016. Last Year: 14^th) A solid skater who plays a fairly polished game on both sides of the puck, Lajoie had a decent rookie pro season last year, especially considering the circumstances of injuries that caused him to miss over 20 games and the fact that Belleville had a very bad hockey club last year. He was able to demonstrate an impressive ability to process the game, and he is able to transition the puck from zone to zone thanks to his mobility and puck handling skills. Lajoie is still on the slight side and needs a full, healthy season to give us a better idea of how his development will play out.

Gabriel Gagne

15 Gabriel Gagne, RW (36^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 20^th) Gagne’s permanently raw collection of tools were unable to have much of an impact in his first pro season, leading to a humbling stretch in the ECHL. His follow-up campaign was much better. He went from barely getting one shot on net per game to leading Belleville with 177 shots and a team high 20 goals. The paltry assist total (5) looks bad, but there wasn’t anyone else on the team who could score, so there were only so many assists to go around. Gagne is still growing into his lanky 6-5” frame, but he skates well, has above average puck skills, including a deadly shot from medium range and he knows how to put his body to good use. He is the player in this system who improved the most season over season.

16 Christian Jaros, D (139^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 5^th) As many of the other young blueliners in the system – particularly those with AHL experience – are either purely offensive or purely defensive defenders, Jaros stands out as having a more well-balanced game. Despite missing too much time to injuries in his first year in North America, he had good results for Belleville, and earned a few games with the Senators as well. He has a powerful point shot and moves the puck with skill. He is big and physical, without being mean. He has enough mobility to not be a weak link, although skating is not his strength. Of all of the defensemen in the second half of this list, Jaros has the highest likelihood of being more than a third pairing defender over time.

17 Filip Chlapik, C (48^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 8^th) Considering how well Chlapik did in his first pro season, leading Belleville in scoring despite missing 24 games, and playing in 20 games in the NHL, it may seem odd to see him ranked relatively low. Adding to the cognitive dissonance here is the fact that Chlapik is probably the first center to be called up again in case of injury. The answer lies in his lack of tools, or dynamic elements to his game. The big, Czech forward is a below average skater whose hands are soft and he can make some plays at the AHL level, but we doubt he has enough flash to create offense on his own in the NHL. He is an intelligent and has learned how to play within his limitations, at least at the QMJHL level, but he has further to go to prove he can do it at the highest levels.

18 Kevin Mandolese, G (157^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) In terms of pure ability from a physical standpoint, Mandolese may have been the best netminder available in the 2018 draft. Unfortunately, his performance never matched his visuals for long stretches and he split the season with QMJHL veteran Kyle Jessiman. He is a solid shot blocker who reads plays well and can be credited for improving upon his consistency in net over the course of the last year. Further to his credit, the defense in front of him was poor last year, so he may not have been fully at fault for his mediocre numbers, especially as they were markedly better than his partner. He needs to do a better job of keeping his arms up in the butterfly to prevent more rush goals. For now, he is a goalie to watch, instead of to plan around.

19 Julius Bergman, D (Trade: Jun. 19, 2018 [San Jose]. Last Year: 17^th [San Jose]) A big part of the return from San Jose in the Mike Hoffman deal, Bergman has had an up and down professional career since the Sharks made him a second round pick in 2014. Last season had its own mini ups and downs as he found a way to make his shot count more often, netting a career high ten goals, while he continued to struggle – sometimes mightily so – in his own zone. Seen as an offensive defenseman as an amateur, he still flashes those tools, but has never really developed his off-puck game. He may have more of a chance in the Ottawa system, but he will still need to show more consistent commitment first.

20 Andrew Sturtz, RW (Mar. 28, 2018. Last Year: IE) The first foray into the college free agent the Senators have made in a while, Sturtz already has some experience with the Ottawa area, having spent his pre-college years playing in Carleton Place in the CCHA. A smaller player who plays a bigger game than he should, but earned attention thanks to his puck skills. Sturtz is blessed with strong hands, very good hand-eye coordination and slippery puck control skills. His shot is only so-so, but he has a knack for getting himself into prime scoring position. He also skates well, which made him elusive in the collegiate ranks. He will have to prove himself in Belleville first, but he is worth keeping an eye on.

McKeen’s Prospects: Looking back at our rankings at the quarter mark

Ryan Wagman — Tue, 28 Nov 2017 17:26:31 +0000

PITTSBURGH, PA - NOVEMBER 27: Philadelphia Flyers Center Nolan Patrick (19) skates during the second period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Philadelphia Flyers on November 27, 2017, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

When putting together a top prospect list, as we did for the recent McKeens yearbook, one of the ever-present challenges is balancing the immediate gratification of “ready-now” players, with what we perceive to be greater potential big-picture value. Even though we led off our top 250 with Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier, respectively, two teenagers fresh off their selection at the top of the 2017 Entry Draft, we did not really believe them to offer the best short term value among prospects.

Both of those players have been performing well at the NHL level as first year pros, but they earned their stops at the top of the rankings for the length of their development that is still to come.

Conversely, our rankings for the Calder Trophy looks not at best prospect in general, but focused on players we saw as having more opportunity to shine right now. That is one reason why Hischier was slotted behind Patrick in the overall prospect ranking, but outmanned him by nine spots in the Calder rankings. Another way of looking at that disparity is through the lens of Spencer Foo, signed as an undrafted free agent by the Calgary Flames after a stellar run at Union College. We saw a good opportunity for his skill set and maturity to earn him a top nine role right away, giving us comfort in ranking him ninth (one ahead of Patrick) in the Calder rankings, while only giving him the highly coveted 112 spot in the overall prospect rankings.

With the 2017-18 season now almost two months, and slightly over one quarter of the way through, this is as good a time as any to look at players we missed on. The easiest place to start would be with the aforementioned Foo. Instead, Foo failed to impress the Flames’ brass in pre-season, and was sent back to Stockton, where he has found the professional game to be more difficult than he (and we) had expected. Through 17 games with the Heat, he has scored but a single goal, to go along with five assists.

Another player for whom I am starting to downgrade expectations is our fifth ranked prospect, the Oilers’ Jesse Puljujarvi. I had long thought of him as a very mature player, with a high-end two-way game. Someone as likely to play on the first PK unit as he was to pot 20-25 goals on the regular. After all, he was trending in that direction as a 17 year old playing with men in Liiga and Mestis, Finland’s top two levels. I still see him as a strong two-way player, who should have a long NHL career. But looking at what he has achieved since being drafted (and it is still very early) highlights the fact that although he was always pushed to play among older players, he never sustained great offense at any senior level. He may simply lack that creative, dynamic element that is necessary on a first line. He looks more middle six than top six.

While some players step up to new levels and destroy the competition as handily as they had against their former set of competition, others take a few months, or even a season and change, to find their feet. I am happy to shine a light on a player exceeding expectations early, but will try to reserve judgement on players who need some more time to acclimatize. Cale Makar is doing well enough as a freshman at UMass-Amherst, but not really outperforming less heralded fellow freshman blueliner Mario Ferraro. Even more disconcerting, Colin White has struggled mightily in his first full season in the AHL, with only five points in his first 12 games. So why would I be down on Foo and not on White? For the simply reason that Foo is three years older – he has less time available to him to make his mark.

Like Foo, although not to the same extent, Zach Aston-Reese brought high expectations with him when he signed a contract as a collegiate free agent with the Pittsburgh Penguins. As a high-scoring Hobey Baker Award finalist, he was expected to take the fast track to the NHL in Western Pennsylvania. As a 23 year old, his window was similarly limited. With two goals and nine point sin his first 15 games this year in the AHL with the Baby Pens, he is on his way to blowing his one big chance. He has shown enough that I am not bearish with him as I am with Foo, but I am concerned.

I have no worries about the slow hand Ottawa is taking with future superstar Thomas Chabot. The team clearly prefers that he learn the ropes away from the bright lights in Belleville. The B-Sens are not the best team in the AHL, but he is holding his own, and has performed well enough in his brief NHL cameos, with three assists through his first five NHL games, with decent possession metrics, albeit in sheltered usage. His future remains bright, even if it will not begin as soon as we had anticipated a few months ago, ranking him fifth in the Calder chase.

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - NOVEMBER 02: Montreal Canadiens Defenceman Victor Mete (53) skates with the puck during a NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and Montreal Canadians on November 2, 2017 at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN.The Wild defeated the Canadians 6-3.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

For every player we missed on the high side, there is one we missed by underrating. We had rated Victor Mete ninth among all Montreal prospects, behind two other blueliners. He was outside of the top 250 altogether. We recognized his great mobility and a strong point shot, but were not convinced he could be more than a good number four, and we certainly did not think him ready for steady NHL action. Not only did he make the Habs out of training camp, but he played with Shea Weber in the early goings. He has not looked out of place, although I still suspect that he will be sent back to the London Knights before playing a 40^th game and burning a year service time. He has been burned in the back too often of late and has seen his minutes dwindling as a result. Further, his relative Corsi% is ahead of only Joe Morrow among current Montreal defenders. Even though he is still raw, he deserved to be ranked higher than ninth with Montreal, and should have made the top 250.

While we were clearly too low on Mete, at least in his case, we had him ranked in the top 20 of his organization. There are two players who have seen significant action in the NHL, and have performed even better than Mete, who fell short of organizational top 20. The first is Robert Hagg, defenseman of Philadelphia. We were, of course, well aware of Hagg. The former second round pick was a three time participant for Team Sweden at the WJC and had already spent three full seasons learning the North American game in the AHL, first coming over at age 19. He played a relatively quiet game, with a modicum of offense through in from the point. He has plus mobility and was very reliable when it came to getting the puck out of his own end. What kept Hagg from the book was a combination of a very deep Philadelphia system and a crippling propensity to commit an unforced error on an almost daily basis. He has been receiving a ton of ice time for the Flyers in the early going, but his good press show more luck than skill. He has not been sheltered by coach Dave Hakstol, starting more than his share of shifts in the defensive zone. It stands to reason that his shot share is in the red. On the other hand, for every goal that was scored against the Flyers with Hagg on the ice at even strength, three were scored by Philly. That good fortune will run out. In spite of his early, unexpected success, Hagg still lacks the upside of many of the other prospects in the Philadelphia system, but as a usable now player who has a relatively high floor, he should have been able to sneak onto the Philadelphia top 20.

The other player I want to point out in this exercise is New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt. Bratt is neither the leading nor the runner-up in scoring for a New Jersey rookie, but that is more indicative of the strength of the Devils’ rookie class than an indictment of Bratt’s play, as he is currently fifth in team scoring with 14 points through his first 23 games. Undersized, but quick and with exciting hands, the former sixth rounder has been a revelation in the early-goings. He has even taken on a crucial role in the team’s second PK unit, scoring once. While his possession numbers are middling, they stand up well enough in comparison to his teammates’. So why did he miss our NJ top 20? Had we hewed more closely to our objective 20/80 scores, he actually would have slotted in around 15^th. But we chose to deviate for the pure scouting scores. The reason behind that approach was that at a certain point, the difference between the scores is not as exact as the numbers suggest. While a 55 OFP is clearly better than a 52, a 53 and a 51 are really rather close. Further, when scores are close, we usually leaned towards the player deemed closer to his prime. We made the very false assumption that, at still only 19 years of age, we would have more chances to view Bratt among his peers, seemingly as an import player with the London Knights in the OHL. More than Hagg, Bratt looks like the real deal.

It is still too early to come to any broad conclusions about the art of prospecting. In any ranking, showing what can only be a snapshot in time, there will be players whose relative positioning are not truly indicative of what they are or will be. For both good and bad. We will miss on a few every year, but we will never be afraid of looking back at our misses to refine our process and produce rankings that are better and better with each passing season.

NHL Training Camp Notes – September 29th, 2017

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 29 Sep 2017 22:26:39 +0000

Anaheim

Ryan Miller – Missed Wednesday’s practice and Thursday’s preseason game with an upper-body injury. It’s not clear if he’s in any danger of missing the season opener or not.

Kevin Bieksa – In the same boat as Miller, in which I mean he missed the practice and game, but beyond that we don’t know much. The difference is Bieksa has a lower-body injury.

Ryan Getzlaf – Was also kept out of Thursday’s preseason game due to an ailment and we also don’t know much here. All three cases are wait-and-see, but we might get a better sense of things on Saturday given that it will be the Ducks’ last preseason game, so it will be interesting to see if one or more of the three can participate.

Arizona

Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Latest on his knee injury is that he skated for roughly 35 minutes with an assistant coach on Thursday. Still appears to be questionable for the season opener.

Zac Rinaldo – He’s got a real shot of making the team, which would be noteworthy for those in fantasy leagues that use PIM as a category. He still has a five-game suspension he’d need to serve though if he does make the team (that incident took place back on Feb. 28, 2016 when he last participated in an NHL contest), so he wouldn’t be available for the season opener.

Buffalo

Jordan Nolan – Not too noteworthy, but he was claimed off waivers by Buffalo. He’s probably just going to end up being used as a fourth liner though.

Carolina

Justin Williams – He’s been skating on a line with Teuvo Teravainen and Jordan Staal. It looks like for tonight’s preseason game Janne Kuokkanen will be replacing Teravainen on that line, but that’s because Teravainen won’t be in the lineup.

Teuvo Teravainen – Speaking of that, Teravainen didn’t play in the third period of Wednesday’s contest either. It’s being billed as more precautionary than anything though, so unless there’s more here than meets the eye, I would assume he’ll be available for the season opener.

Lee Stempniak – Still has a hip/back injury and this whole has been on the vague side. Stempniak undergoing an MRI was mentioned last week, but Hurricanes coach Bill Peters said he didn’t know the results. What we do know is that he won’t play in Friday’s preseason game.

Chicago

Jan Rutta – He’s kind of a neat story. The defenseman is 27-years-old and has never played professionally in North America, but it looks like he’s actually won a spot with the Chicago Blackhawks out of training camp. He had eight goals and 32 points in 46 Czech league games last season.

Michal Rozsival – Not much of an update, but more of a no news probably is bad news scenario. He didn’t pass his training camp physical (upper body) and his status remains unchanged, so he’ll probably start the season on the injured reserve.

Colorado

A.J. Greer – Will probably start the season on the injured reserve list due to a concussion. The good news is that he’s started skating on his own.

Joe Colborne – He might not be available for the start of the season either due to his back injury. Colborne also didn’t play in any preseason games. It’s not clear if he’ll be with the Avalanche once he’s healthy or be sent to the minors.

Jonathan Bernier – Sustained a groin injury on Monday and hasn’t been practicing with the Avalanche as a result.

Columbus

Josh Anderson – He’s still not signed and on Thursday there were reports that he requested a trade (which, it should be noted, Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen has denied).

Detroit

Henrik Zetterberg – He hasn’t played in a preseason game yet because of a neck injury, but he’ll make his debut on Friday. His projected lineamtes are Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar.

Nick Jensen – A thumb injury will keep him out of Detroit’s last two preseason games on Friday and Saturday. It’s not clear if he’ll still be available for the season opener.

Niklas Kronwall – Had been dealing with a back injury, but he got into Thursday’s exhibition game, so it looks like that’s behind him.

Edmonton

Ryan Strome – He had been used on a line with Connor McDavid previously, but for Thursday and Friday’s practice, Strome has instead been centering the third line with Jussi Jokinen and Drake Caggiula. Oilers coach Todd McLellan seems to like Strome as a center, but obviously Strome’s best chance at having a big season would be with McDavid.

Leon Draisaitl – McLellan has already reunited the line of Leon Draisaitl, McDavid, and Patrick Maroon. Earlier in the preseason, Edmonton had been experimenting with separating Draisaitl and McDavid.

Minnesota

Zach Parise – Remains questionable for the season opener. He didn’t participate in Thursday or Friday’s practice though, so that’s not a good sign.

Nashville

Viktor Arvidsson – While Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg are projected to start the season together on the top line, Arvidsson might not end up as part of that trio this time. Kevin Fiala and Scott Hartnell are also in the running for that spot. This could have a meaningful amount of fantasy impact depending on which one of the three ends up on that top line.

New Jersey

Brian Boyle – Has been skating on his own, but he won’t start practicing with the Devils until Wednesday at the earliest. He might still end up playing in the season opener despite that.

Nico Hischier – He scored a goal in each of his four preseason games. While that has to be taken with a grain of salt, what is particularly noteworthy is that Devils coach John Hynes feels Hischier has earned a top-six spot.

NY Rangers

Filip Chytil – Defying the odds, Chytil seems to have secured a roster spot with the Rangers. Not only that, but he might open the season on a line with Rick Nash and Mats Zuccarello.

NY Islanders

John Tavares – Just as an aside, teams have reportedly been told not to bother inquiring about Tavares until January 1 at the earliest. He wasn’t expected to be traded during the preseason or early portion of 2016-17 anyways – if he’s dealt at all – but this news just reinforces that.

Ottawa

Craig Anderson – He’s signed a two-year, $9.5 million extension. Obviously that doesn’t impact things much this season, which means that the Senators now have two veteran goalies signed through 2019-20 in him and Mike Condon.

Colin White – He blocked a shot during a preseason game and underwent wrist surgery as a result. He’ll start the season on the injured reserve list as he’ll be out for six-to-eight weeks.

Erik Karlsson – Was on the ice with the Senators on Friday, albeit while wearing a no-contact jersey. He’s doubtful for the season opener.

Philadelphia

Claude Giroux – The Flyers have continued to experiment with using Giroux as a left winger and Flyers coach Dave Hakstol has been happy with the results. As previously mentioned, if he does shift to the left wing then that would create an opening for Sean Couturier to center a top line that would also include Jakub Voracek.

Pittsburgh

Jake Guentzel – It comes with the standard disclaimer about preseason stats of course, but for what it is worth, Jake Guentzel has three goals and nine points in three preseason games. That’s enough to lead the league in exhibition points.

Patric Hornqvist – Is still dealing with a hand injury. He’s been skating, but not practicing. It’s still possible that he’ll play in the season opener, but Penguins coach Mike Sullivan wants to be cautious with him.

Justin Schultz/Kris Letang – When it comes to which one of the two will play on the top power-play unit, Sullivan talked about it being a fluid process. It could come down to who is better rested at the time or what Sullivan feels is best at that stage of the game.

St. Louis

Robby Fabbri – We already talked about this after I sent you my last update, but of course Fabbri tore his ACL again and will need to have surgery. He’s been ruled out for the playoffs as well as the regular season.

Scottie Upshall – It’s not official yet, but the St. Louis Blues have reportedly signed Upshall, which makes some sense given their injury issues. Upshall played for the Blues in each of the previous two seasons, but after going unsigned over the summer he joined the Canucks’ training camp on a PTO.

Toronto

Patrick Marleau – Maple Leafs coach Mike Babcock has expressed displeasure in the trio of Marleau, Nazem Kadri, and Leo Komarov. Babcock liked how they were doing in the early part of camp, but he feels that group can be way better, quicker, and more diligent. He’s looking for them to develop more chemistry with each other. Perhaps that line will be broken up if Babcock doesn’t see improvements.

McKeen’s 17-18 Yearbook Updates

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 22 Sep 2017 21:20:54 +0000

It is early in the pre-season, but Ryan Dadoun brings a round up of the news so far. Nothing earth shattering, but lots to keep an eye on. McKeen's will do an update end of day Monday based on injuries, camp performance, etc.

In the meantime here is what you need to know.

Anaheim

Hampus Lindholm – Shoulder injury will probably keep him out until early November. That’s not surprising given the initial projections from when he had surgery in May, but it’s his absence is more probable now than it was over the summer.

Ryan Kesler – The hope is to have him back by Christmas after he underwent hip surgery in June. Over the summer it looked like he might be back in November, so the recent news here has been discouraging.

Antoine Vermette – Might end up being the one to fill the void left by Kesler. He’s been practicing on a line with Andrew Cogliano and Jakob Silfverberg. If we’re talking about standard fantasy leagues though, Vermette’s value is still borderline at best.

Arizona

Jason Demers – The Coyotes acquired him from the Florida Panthers. Arizona views him as a top-four defenseman, but it’s not clear who his defensive partner will be. He got a decent, but not great, amount of power-play time in Florida last season while Keith Yandle/Aaron Ekblad served as the team’s primary defensive options with the man advantage and he’ll probably end up in a similar situation in Arizona behind Oliver Ekman-Larsson/Alex Goligoski when it comes to power-play ice time.

Boston

Torey Krug – He suffered a non-displaced jaw fracture on Tuesday and was projected to miss at least three weeks from that date. That will cost him most of training camp and at least three regular season games.

Buffalo

Alexander Nylander – He suffered a lower-body injury on Sept. 8 and hasn’t skated at all in training camp as a result. Good news is that the Sabres think he’ll resume skating in near future, so maybe he’ll still return with enough time to spare to make his case for a roster spot.

Carolina

Lee Stempniak – More of a side note for now, but he’s been dealing with an undisclosed problem that might be more serious than initially believed. He has soreness in his hip/back and had an MRI on Thursday, so we’ll see what the results of that are.

Detroit

Andreas Athanasiou – Still hasn’t signed. There’s the threat of him heading to the KHL and even if he does re-sign in the not too distant future, he’ll be a young player that’s missed a good chunk of training camp/preseason play.

Edmonton

Ryan Strome – It’s a bit of a stretch to mention at this stage, but the Oilers seem to be going with a top line of Maroon, McDavid, and Strome so far. As a fun aside, McDavid also thinks Strome is a good sleeper pick in fantasy leagues. (https://www.nhl.com/news/edmonton-oilers-connor-mcdavid-sees-ryan-strome-as-fantasy-sleeper/c-290885390?tid=277729150)

Drake Caggiula – Similarly, it might be too early to read into it, but so far Drake Caggiula is being tested on the second line with Draisaitl and Lucic.

Los Angeles

Marian Gaborik – Is taking some contact as he recovers from a knee injury. Still unclear if he’ll play in the preseason, but it’s progress.

Nashville

Ryan Ellis – This happened a couple weeks before training camp, so you probably already have it in your projections, but just in case he’s out for four-to-six months with a knee injury. That has led to them mixing up their defensive pairings though. Ekholm and Subban were split up so that Ekholm is now with Josi (although Ekholm-Weber has also been experimented with) and Subban is with newcomer Emelin.

New Jersey

MONTREAL, QC - SEPTEMBER 21: New Jersey Devils center Nico Hischier (13) waits for play to begin during the third period of the NHL preseason game between the New Jersey Devils and the Montreal Canadiens on September 21, 2017, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

Nico Hischier – Another stretch, but for what it’s worth Nico Hischier has stood out in preseason games so far, upping what were already good odds of him making the team. Hynes suggested that Hischier has forced talks of him having a bigger role than previously projected. Hischier-Hall is an interesting combo, though of course it’s another preseason pairing so who knows.

NY Islanders

Alan Quine – Quine sustained an upper-body injury in mid-September that was projected to cost him four-to-six weeks. So he’s missing training camp and a couple weeks of the regular season in all likelihood.

Ottawa

Colin White – Suffered a broken left wrist on Monday and is projected to miss six-to-eight weeks. He had been seen as being in a good position to make the team, especially due to Derick Brassard being a question mark. Although…

Derick Brassard – His recovery from shoulder surgery is ahead of schedule, per what Guy Boucher said today. He still might not be ready for the start of the regular season.

Clarke MacArthur – Unfortunately even after his strong playoff showing, he ended up failing his physical. Sucks to say, but it may be that his playing career is over.

Erik Karlsson – As of Thursday he still wasn’t skating due to his foot injury. He’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season and who knows if he’ll be begin the curve once he finally is given the green light to play.

Philadelphia

Travis Sanheim – It’s still tentative, but he’s off to a good start and seems to have improved his chances of making the team. Had 10 goals and 37 points in the AHL last season.

Sean Couturier – The Flyers are toying with using Claude Giroux as a left winger. Couturier could be the beneficiary if that happens as he could move up in the depth charts as a result, possibly even on a line with Giroux and Jakub Voracek (which they did test out in practice, but that doesn’t mean they’ll actually use it in games).

St. Louis

Zach Sanford – Suffered a dislocated left shoulder that will keep him sidelined for the next five-to-six months.

Jay Bouwmeester – Has a fractured left ankle that will be re-evaluated in three weeks. Along with Sanford, these ones are fringe just because they didn’t have much in the way of fantasy value even when healthy.

Alexander Steen – Suffered a hand injury in the Blues’ first preseason game on Tuesday that will cost him at least three weeks (at which point he’ll be re-evaluated). Certainly he’s the most noteworthy of the three fantasy wise.

Toronto

Patrick Marleau – It’s looking like Patrick Marleau won’t play alongside Matthews in even strength as Babcock’s preference appears to be a trio of Zach Hyman, Matthews, and William Nylander. Marleau and Matthews should share the ice in power play situations though.

Joffrey Lupul – Team’s says he failed his physical, but now it looks like the league wants to look into it after Lupul’s claim of cheating followed by his retraction(deletion)/apology. Probably doesn’t matter fantasy-wise either way. Even if Lupul is deemed fit to play he’ll probably end up in the AHL at most.

Vegas

James Neal – Has a broken hand that was projected to sideline him for two-to-four weeks. He’s one week into that timetable at this point so perhaps he’ll be okay for the season opener. Still sucks to miss training camp on a brand new team though.

Washington

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 16: Washington Capitals left wing Jakub Vrana (13) makes a pass during an NHL game on March 16, 2017, at the Verizon Center, in Washington, D.C. between the Washington Capitals and the Nashville Predators. Nashville won 2-1 in overtime.
(Photo by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire)

Jakub Vrana – More grain of salt stuff, but the Capitals have been giving him top-six opportunities. He played alongside Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov in Wednesday’s preseason game and tonight it looks like he’ll be with Backstrom and Oshie (Kuznetsov/Ovechkin aren’t playing).

Winnipeg

Tyler Myers – Feels 100% after only playing in 11 games last season.

Ottawa – System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 15 Sep 2017 20:32:44 +0000

2011 marks the last time that the Ottawa Senators came out of the draft with a multitude of pure skill players. Armed with three first rounders and ten picks in total, they could afford to take a few risks, but that focus on productive players has resulted in a class from which a remarkable eight of ten players now have NHL experience. Their draft haul starred Mika Zibanejad and also included players like Shane Prince, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and Ryan Dzingel.

Since that time, nearly every player drafted by the team was lauded first for his character and ability to play in his own zone before talk ever turned to offensive skills. That is not to say that they did not draft skilled players, but that the skill component of their player profiles was of secondary importance. So it should come as little surprise that of the eight teams in the Atlantic Division, only two have seen their drafted players experience less of the NHL than the bunch drafted by Ottawa from 2012 onwards. Further, those two, Boston and Detroit, were generally trading picks for present gains and picking further down when they did pick. Between Ottawa’s haul and the fifth ranked team lie 150 games of combined NHL experience.

The situation is actually worse than that for Ottawa as, 464 of the 492 games of experience those five draft classes have accrued have come from two players, Cody Ceci and Curtis Lazar. No one else has yet had any sort of NHL impact.

Looking at Ottawa’s system right now, there are three players who sit heads and shoulders above everyone else. These three – Thomas Chabot, Colin White, and Logan Brown – would fit on many teams’ top threes. But after that trio, the system is lacking in both quantity and quality. The reason for the former issue is that Ottawa has also been a generally competitive team, only once picking more than the standard allotment of seven players (eight in 2015) and only nine players drafted in total across the last two draft classes.

The reason for the latter issue is that the team has drafted very conservatively when they have drafted. As mentioned above, the team has stressed character and two-way play, with a secondary stress of size, at the draft table. Even of the three top prospects, White was more known as an ultra-smart two-way player before he was drafted while Brown packaged decent skills with two-way play into a massive body. Outside of Chabot, the only players drafted by the Sens who could be argued as being skills-first players are Francis Perron and Christian Wolanin. One seventh rounder and one fourth rounder.

Once Chabot, White, and Brown begin their NHL careers in earnest – the former two are expected to be NHLers this year – the numbers for Ottawa will change. But until then, for a team that has loudly and publicly scoffed at the analytics movement, their inattention to scouting, reportedly having one of the smallest scouting staffs in the game, will prevent them from bringing in the next generation of cheap, impact talent.

Ottawa Senators Thomas Chabot (72) . (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

1 Thomas Chabot – Along with Boston’s Charlie McAvoy, one of the most dynamic blueline prospects in the game. His skating is elite. His offensive skills are all high end. He has a hard slap shot from the point that he can get through a crowd and is a precise and effective passer. Wrapping up those skills is his commitment and intelligence off the puck and in his own zone. Uses his stick very effectively and can land a play changing hit when the situation calls for it. If Ottawa didn’t already have Erik Karlsson, Chabot would be their future #1.

2 Colin White – Drafted with the expectation that he could develop into a strong, two-way center, White has instead seen tremendous growth in his offensive game across two seasons at Boston College. His hockey IQ is still plus-plus, but he has learned to combine his high-end skating and skilled puck play into a player with strong offensive projections. He plays the puck with great confidence and patience. He is always thinking the game one step ahead of his defenders.

June 24, 2016: Logan Brown is congratulated by Ottawa Senators management and coaches after he was selected as the 11th pick in the first round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft at First Niagara Center in Buffalo, NY (Photo by John Crouch/Icon Sportswire.)

3 Logan Brown – Limited by injury to 35 games in his first post draft year, Brown was nonetheless very effective when he was able to suit up. He will always have amazing size and he uses that to advantage, not so much as an intimidation factor, but he has the reach of a condor and he is willing to stretch out to block passing and shooting lanes in his own end. He is also a delight with the puck, dishing off sweet pass after sweet pass. Skates well for his size.

Shane Bowers of the Waterloo Black Hawks, USHL

4 Shane Bowers – An occasionally frustrating player to watch in the USHL, Bowers’ pace was often too much for his teammates and some of his more interesting offensive attempts unfortunately ended meekly. An impressive skater with a power forward approach to offense, he can look dangerous when rushing the puck. He can push through checks and has the possession skills to establish the offensive zone. Should see his production improve playing with skilled teammates at Boston University.

5 Christian Jaros – Signed to an ELC after finally spending the full season in the SHL with Lulea, Jaros has slowly, but steadily improved his overall game since the Senators used a fifth round pick on him in 2015. He profiles as more of an offensive defenseman than one who stays at home and will sometimes act like a fourth forward once his side has established the offensive zone. Pace may be a concern, but his physical play and NHL size portend to an NHL future.

6 Marcus Hogberg – Four years after being drafted, Hogberg put together a lights out season for Linkoping in the SHL and earned an ELC and the presumptive title of “goalie of the future” for Ottawa. He has prototypical size, competes well for every puck and tracks the puck nicely. He should get the bulk of the starts this year as the Senators move their AHL affiliate to Belleville.

7 Ben Harpur – Another super-sized prospect at 6-6”, 225, Harpur was a late arrival to defense. He has come a long way in the past few years, in terms of his mobility, his puck moving skills and especially his positional play. He will never be a big point producer, but he is at least efficient at getting the play moving in the right direction. He can handle the toughest shifts, including heavy time in the PK rotation. Keep expectations low, but he will do alright.

8 Filip Chlapik – While his first post-draft season was a disappointment, Chlapik ended his QMJHL career with a bang, including both over 90 points with Charlottetown, often alongside Daniel Sprong, and a stronger repeat performance at the WJC with the Czech Republic squad. He will never be a great skater, but he has the ability to slow the game down when he is on the puck. A very intelligent player who knows his limitations and plays within them.

9 Andreas Englund – Englund came to North America for the first time last season and basically was the same player he was while developing in Sweden. He is a no-frills, no-nonsense, stay-at-home blueliner with offensive production that you can count on one hand. He can be used for tough shifts and on the penalty kill. Think a shorter Ben Harpur with less puck moving ability and more of a nasty edge to his game.

10 Francis Perron – A rare prospect drafted by the Senators for his skill, Perron exploded in his final QMJHL season, winning the league MVP award for both the regular season and the playoffs. It would be unfair to call his rookie pro season a no-show, but it was disappointing. He is very slight of frame and was all too often neutralized on the ice by bigger, stronger opponents. He can still flash his strong puck game and creativity, particularly with his playmaking, but more should be expected.

11 Alex Formenton – A curious prospect, Formenton has near elite skating ability, speed that can make a scout sit up straighter, but little else. To be fair, it is not that he cannot shoot, or handle the puck, or pass, or any of the other things that make a good hockey player. It is that he doesn’t do those things often enough. Needs to overthink less often and relax with the puck. Unfortunately, players who struggle to produce offense as much as he does, rarely figure it out down the road. But he can fly.

12 Drake Batherson – A late bloomer, Batherson was not drafted in his first year of eligibility, still playing in the Maritime Hockey League. He then joined Cape Breton in the QMJHL and quickly rose up prospect lists due to his impressive hockey smarts and a simple overall game that can get the job done at both ends of the ice. A fairly typical Senators prospect in many regards. Expect a lot more promise in a second major junior season.

13 Christian Wolanin – While Batherson is a typical Senators draft pick, Wolanin is fairly atypical for this team. Drafted in his third year of eligibility as a puck moving blueliner in the USHL, his development over two seasons in NCAA with North Dakota has been promising. He has a decent point shot and solid puck protection ability. His defensive zone play still has rough edges to be smoothed up, especially in man-on-man coverage, but he has a nice offensive edge to his game, at times even looking dynamic.

14 Max Lajoie – At his best, Lajoie is a solid puck moving blueliner, capable of starting the transition, or manning the point on the man advantage, all traits he has exhibited throughout his three year career with Swift Current. At his worst, he does those things, but not well enough to get away with it. He can be loose on the puck. His shot is OK, but not especially threatening. He still plays well enough in his own end that he should receive his share of opportunities to continue developing as a pro.

15 Fredrik Claesson – After that nice, brief interlude with players bearing some skills, we are back to the land of low upside. The difference between Claesson and some of the others of that type on this list is that Claesson has already reached his peak level. He fell two games short of losing his prospect eligibility last year and is likely to make the third pairing this year. He will stay there until he is passed from below.

16 Max McCormick – If Andreas Englund was a winger, he might be Max McCormick. The Ohio State alum has a strong motor. He is an above average skater with a nice wrist shot to boot. But despite below average size, his best attribute is his physical game. His offensive upside is moderate at best, but he plays to hurt. He should see a good bit of NHL ice time this year, likely losing his prospect eligibility.

17 Nick Paul – The most surprising thing about Nick Paul’s career thus far is that his development has stalled. He has a solid skill set, highlighted by strong possession ability and good net drive. He also impresses in his commitment to his own zone, a trait he showed from early in his junior days. While the effort is always there, his vision and creativity are lacking, putting a hard ceiling on his potential for future offensive production.

18 Filip Ahl – After utterly failing to make much headway as a teenager in the SHL, Ahl came to North America last year to kickstart his career in the WHL with Regina. The results were middling. He does everything at an OK level, from skating, to shooting, to puck handling, to overall situational awareness. He has good size and plays the requisite physical game, but we are basically looking at another low-ceiling player. Ahl is going back to Sweden for now.

19 Markus Nurmi – Tall and rangy, Nurmi may be able to separate himself from the mass of similar players in the middle regions of the Ottawa system by dint of a plus shot. A strong scorer in the Finnish junior reaches, he has had limited exposure to high level hockey thus far. He has already shown improvement in the season since being drafted, particularly in his skating ability and a strong season in Liiga with TPS will allow him to shoot up this list.

20 Gabriel Gagne – Seen as a reach when the Senators used an early 2nd round pick on him in 2015, Gagne has done nothing since then to dispel that notion. Gifted with great height, the best thing I can say about his game is that his hands are not overly hard. He was never one to drive the play, even in the QMJHL, and his rookie pro season was a disappointment.

With Chabot and White both expected to play in Ottawa full time this year, the system that they leave behind will be extremely barren, one of the weakest in the league. By consistently drafting “safe” players, the Senators have almost no upside to speak of at any position. Perhaps they believe that taller players just take longer to develop, as is often assumed with pitchers in baseball. Or perhaps, they simply need a new approach to keep this team relevant after Erik Karlsson stops being the best defenseman in hockey.

NHL Prospect Watch: Atlantic Scholarship

Ryan Wagman — Thu, 16 Mar 2017 14:25:06 +0000

With the NCAA regular season schedule having wrapped up with the completion of Big 10 competition (Saturday), and with a look at select prospects from the Atlantic Division still unfulfilled, I thought it would be fun to focus on collegiate prospects for the teams of the Atlantic. The do not all stock their systems with long-range academic prospects, but each team in this division has a few players of note doing their early development in the NCAA.

The Florida Panthers, in particular, are a curious case. Of their 11 collegians, most have vastly underwhelmed since heading to college. Benjamin Gallacher is not even on his team’s roster any more. Joe Wegwerth and Miguel Fidler are AHL depth live players at best. Evan Cowley and Chris Wilkie are struggling to get playing time on good college teams. I retain hope that Ryan Bednard and Karch Bachman will show improvements in their respective sophomore seasons. That general malaise does not, thankfully, extend to 2016 first rounder Henrik Borgstrom (Florida, 1/23, 2016 – C, Denver (NCHC)).

June 24, 2016: Henrik Borstrom looks on after being picked by the Florida Panthers in the first round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft at First Niagara Center in Buffalo, NY (Photo by John Crouch/Icon Sportswire.)

A rare second year eligible taken in the first round, Borgstrom was a big offensive producer in the Finnish U20 leagues as an 18 year old, catching the eyes of NHL scouts and the Finnish national team selection program. If all you saw of the Denver freshman this season was his disappointing performance with Team Finland at the WJC, you might have lumped him in with the aforementioned collegiate disappointments currently littering the Florida system. He did not produce a single point in six games as the reigning champions were nearly relegated. That said, despite missing roughly 20% of the Pioneers’ season, Borgstrom goes into the postseason having led the team in scoring with 38 points in 32 games, leading Denver University to a regular season championship.

Watching Borgstrom play in NCAA action is to watch a player who exudes calmness on the ice, whether possession the puck or not. When a checker speeds his way as he carries the puck, he shows not a shred of panic, knowing exactly how much time he has available to make the play. When defending, he has no hesitation in jumping in front of an opposing blueliner to block a slapshot with his body. Still growing into his lanky 6-3” frame, he does not have a great physical frame, but he has fantastic reach. He does not need to be all that close to a puck carrying opponent for him to be able to use his stick to poke the puck away from an unsuspecting adversary. Borgstrom seems to be in the right spot at all times, in all zones, demonstrating high end hockey IQ.

All of the above point to good things in the young Panther prospect’s future. But I have yet to touch on the things Borgstrom can do with and to a puck. He is a slippery puck handler with plus top end speed, enabling him to elude and outrace checkers. If one gets too close, he can execute a deft toe drag to regain maneuvering space for himself. And then there is his wrist shot. Anywhere from the top of the slot and the outer reaches of the faceoff circle and on inwards, he can snipe. Last offseason, we ranked Borgstrom as the number three prospect in the Florida system. Of the two above him, Mike Matheson spent the year in the NHL and Jayce Hawryluk regressed a touch in an injury plagued rookie season in the AHL. Although we are several months from taking another comprehensive look at this, or any other, system, I feel quite safe in naming Borgstrom the front runner to nag the number one spot in this organization. He has first line center upside and may not need much more time in college to be ready for the next step in his development.

Hayden Hawkey (Montreal, 6/177, 2014 – G, Providence College (Hockey East))

My favorite collegiate prospect in the Montreal system is undoubtedly Notre Dame’s Jake Evans, a great seventh round find who has blossomed with the Fighting Irish. But I have already covered him for this column, so I will instead spill some digital ink on the Providence goalie with the best hockey name of all time, Hayden Hawkey.

After only getting into five games as a freshman last year backing up current Edmonton Oiler prospect Nick Ellis, Hawkey has assumed the mantle this year, and played nearly every minute between the pipes for the Friars, leaving only 3:48 for his backup. Considering the frequency of his play, his numbers were alright. A .913 save percentage on its own is not outstanding, but after remembering that that includes the second half of back to back games practically every weekend, it is not so bad. Although the number was only seventh in the Hockey East conference, I believe that it would have been higher had he been given a few Saturdays off.

Hawkey is a solid athlete with good movements in the crease. He seems unfazed by any situation and will rarely slump after a bad goal. I have some concerns about his propensity for rebounds and he needs to make the clean save more often, but he is one to watch for the future role of Carey Price’s backup. Zach Fucale has fallen out of favor in Montreal, but Hawkey will be a worthy competitor to the likes of Charlie Lindgren and Michael McNiven.

Dakota Joshua (Toronto, 5/128, 2014 – C, Ohio State (Big 10))

For a system so much under the public eye, Joshua is among their more obscure prospects. A key contributor to the USHL champion Sioux Falls squad in 2015, the year after he was drafted, Joshua lost prestige as a freshman with OSU, putting up only decent numbers for a lackluster squad. This year, the Buckeyes are much stronger and Joshua is a big part of the reason why, finishing the season fourth in team scoring with 33 points in 30 games.

Joshua plays a power forward game, putting his strong 6-3” body to good use up and down the ice. During Ohio State power plays, he can be found in the immediate vicinity of the crease where he is more than a handful for opposing defenders and an eyesore for goaltenders. He has powerful hands and can get off a solid snap shot through traffic. He knows his role and after some adjustment time, has adapted nicely to the NCAA game much like he did in the USHL. Unlike in his last stop, Joshua will have the benefit of a third season in Columbus to acclimatize before having the option of moving on to greener pastures.

For his junior season, I will be looking for more explosive skating ability and more ability to play the puck. He plays a pro style power game but will not be among the bigger or stronger players in the AHL and will need to show that this is not all that there is.

Anders Bjork (Boston, 5/146, 2014 – LW, Notre Dame (Hockey East))

For my money, one of the most consistently exciting and productive players in college hockey over the past two seasons, with 82 points over his last 70 games for the Irish. A depth player when he was drafted out of the USNTDP, Bjork was given the opportunity to advance into a more offensive role by his sophomore season in college and has certainly taken advantage of the trust placed in his abilities.

Outside of his physical game, Bjork gets plus grades across the board. His physical game is only around average. The Wisconsin native is a very good skater, with tremendous acceleration evident whenever he carries the puck through the neutral zone. His speed makes him a weapon in all situations, including on the penalty kill, where he has scored a pair of shorthanded goals this year. I was able to witness one a few weeks ago, against Providence. With the Providence blueliner scanning the horizon deep in his own zone and spotting a long feed near the Notre Dame bench, Bjork jumped over the boards just as the pass approached the bench and easily picked it off. As he raced towards the Providence net, the Friars’ defender was forced on his heels and retreated all the way back to his crease with both players reaching the goalie almost simultaneously. Bjork was able to flip the puck over a falling netminder a split second before the net was dislodged from its moorings. Between pure speed, good hands and a tremendous read of the situation, it was a goal of great talent.

Throughout this season, Bjork has shown very impressive finishing skills, rounding out his game from last year. He can stickhandle his way past goalies, or fire in a wrister from mid-distance with near surgical precision. It would be very surprising to me if the Bruins did not make a push to have Bjork forego his senior season in South Bend and turn pro this summer. Anders Bjork is ready.

Dennis Cholowski (Detroit, 1/20, 2016 – D, St. Cloud State (NCHC))

I will admit that I failed to see the upside that Detroit scouts did when they used a first round pick on Cholowski, a BCHL product, last year. After watching him a few times this year with St. Cloud State as a freshman, I will admit that I still am not seeing the upside I would hope to witness in a first rounder.

I am not intimating that he is a bad player, or even that he cannot find his way into a lengthy NHL career in time. Cholowski was marginally sheltered with the Huskies, as their top offensive defensemen were Jack Ahcan and Jimmy Schuldt and Will Borgen was the shutdown blueliner. Cholowski was thus the fourth man in the depth chart. With the other three all expected to return next year, Cholowski will once again play in the shadows.

He has good mobility, enabling to get deep into the offensive zone to follow a play, secure in the knowledge that he can get back to the point as soon as his opening closes without putting his team in harm’s way. He has a nice quick shot release, although that only bought him a single goal this year. I expect that total to rise next year. I generally do not put much stock into the plus/minus statistic, but his -9 is the lowest among blueliners at SCS, an ominous sign. I still think Cholowski has enough natural talent between his skating, puck skills and play reading ability, but none of those attributes are high enough for me to believe in much more than a decent second pairing defender. Kind of what he is now at the NCAA level.

TORONTO, ON - DECEMBER 31, 2016 : Canada goalie Connor Ingram (1) makes a save on USA forward Colin White (18) in the first period at the World Junior Hockey Championships on December 31, 2016, at the Air Canada Centre. (Photo by Dan Hamilton/Icon Sportswire)

Colin White (Ottawa, 1/21, 2015 – RW/C – Boston College (Hockey East))

Although his offensive production was not as high this year as it was in his standout freshman campaign, Colin White is still one of the better two-way forwards in the collegiate game. If NCAA had a Frank J. Selke equivalent, White would be in the running for the second year in a row.

The leading scorer for the American Gold Medal winning squad at this year’s WJC, White has an indisputable nose for the net and high end finishing ability. His three zone reads suggest that he will be able to find success at the highest levels even if his current scoring pace dries up as he advances to the next step in his career. That said, I feel that he will be able to maintain a strong offensive game as a pro. He seems to think the game one or two steps ahead of his opponents. White has a nose for the puck and the extra step or two in his jump to get to the right place at the right time. His puck possession skills are such that he can maintain possession on the puck for long stretches in the offensive zone. He has the shiftiness in his feet to dance around checks and leg strength to cycle.

His hands and finishing skills allow him to remain a goal scoring threat from in tight, and he has the patience to outlast goalies. One of the better penalty killers in the NCAA ranks as well, he remains committed to staying on the right side of the puck in his own zone as well. White is a dynamic player, and like Bjork above, has likely gone as far as he can at BC. I expect him to sign with the Senators this summer and threaten for a spot in the NHL at the start of the 2017-18 season.

Johnathan MacLeod (Tampa Bay, 2/57, 2014 – D, Boston University (Hockey East))

The Lightning do not have too many options when it comes to evaluating their collegiate talent. Although not the most exciting among their five NCAA prospects, MacLeod is the one who was drafted the highest. After MacLeod, none of the others was taken higher than the 118th pick. Like Bjork and White, MacLeod was a product of the USNTDP, a defensive defenseman if there ever was one.

With 19 points through seasons with the Boston University Terriers, MacLeod is what he is. The Massachusetts native seems unsure of himself even to the point of timidity when he has the puck. He has a solid frame and skates well enough, but plays too safe a game to ever need to show off his wheels. He keeps a decent gap in coverage and does a nice enough job in separating his man from the puck. The way he does it, being the attribute of his that sticks out the most and will be the final arbiter on his professional aspirations, is through his physical game. While not the biggest player on the ice, he is often the meanest. He will let his defensive partner worry about zone exits and puck carrying duties while MacLeod prepares himself to assault an opponent.

I used to think that MacLeod had untapped offensive upside if given a deeper role, but I no longer believe that to be the case. MacLeod will be allowed to complete his collegiate career, giving him one more chance to show what he can do with the puck, but assuming that the Lightning offer a contract at the end of his time with the Terriers, it will be as they see a bruising third pairing player and value that upside accordingly.

Calvin Petersen (Buffalo, 5/129, 2013 – G, Notre Dame (Hockey East))

We will end this week with one of the best netminders in college hockey in Notre Dame’s Calvin Petersen. But first, a comment. The state of Iowa has one AHL team, in the Iowa Wild. Between Dubuque, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and Des Moines, there are four Iowan franchises in the USHL. Longtime backup NHL netminder Scott Clemmensen is the only NHL alumnus from the state.

Cal Petersen should be the second. And while I would not presume that he can stick in the league for 12 seasons, as Clemmensen did, I will state that he can be a better netminder than his Iowan forebear. An athletic netminder who likes to challenge the shooters, his save percentage his improved in every season since his draft year. He put up a .906 save percentage with Waterloo in 2013, his first full USHL campaign and followed that up with a .915 mark in his last season in junior hockey. He won the starting job with Notre Dame as a freshman and stopped 91.9% of shots faced in that season. As a sophomore, he stopped 92.7% of shots. This year, that number increased to a clean 93%.

His glove hand has gotten sharper and he has cut down drastically on the rebounds allowed. The main thing holding him back is that he has never played in more than 50 games (playoffs included) in a single season. He will need to prove, once he turns pro, that he can handle the rigors of a professional schedule. The Sabres are short on goaltending prospects of note, so Petersen is in the right organization to be given a chance to succeed. The Mike Richter Award finalist may get his chance starting next season.