[04-May-2026 15:31:54 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Class 'WP_Widget' not found in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_news_feed_widget.php:3 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_news_feed_widget.php on line 3 [04-May-2026 15:31:55 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Class 'WP_Widget' not found in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_sidebar_menu_widget.php:3 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_sidebar_menu_widget.php on line 3 [04-May-2026 15:31:45 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_editorials.php:22 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_editorials.php on line 22 [04-May-2026 15:31:46 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_tabs.php:50 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_tabs.php on line 50 [04-May-2026 15:31:47 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_heading.php:15 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_heading.php on line 15 Colton Parayko – McKeen's Hockey https://www.mckeenshockey.com The Essential Hockey Annual Sat, 04 Oct 2025 16:21:05 +0000 en-US hourly 1 MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – ST. LOUIS BLUES – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2025-26-nhl-yearbook-st-louis-blues-team-preview-2/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2025-26-nhl-yearbook-st-louis-blues-team-preview-2/#respond Sat, 04 Oct 2025 16:21:05 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=195651 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – ST. LOUIS BLUES – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

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ST. LOUIS, MO -APRIL 03: St. Louis Blues center Dylan Holloway (81) as seen during a NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the St. Louis Blues on April 03, 2025, at Enterprise Center, St. Louis MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire)

The Blues replaced head coach Drew Banniser with Jim Montgomery, who had been fired by the Boston Bruins, and the team improved dramatically, going 35-18-7 under Montgomery on the way to finishing the season with 96 points (44-30-8). It was enough to qualify for the playoffs and then they pushed the Winnipeg Jets to seven games before ultimately falling short in the first round series. The Blues were on the wrong side of the possession game, ranking 21st in Corsi percentage (48.6) and 20th in expected goals percentage (49.5). Their power play ranked 17th with 7.45 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play but their penalty killing was a problem, allowing 9.45 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play, which ranked 29th. The Blues’ goaltending tandem of Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer was better than average and all of this combines to make a team that was very much middle of the pack and managed to squeak into the postseason but a bounce or two in the wrong direction could have been enough to keep them out.

What’s Changed?

Although scoring right winger Jordan Kyrou has popped up in trade rumours this summer, the Blues maintained some continuity in their forward core but signed free agents Pius Suter from the Vancouver Canucks and Nick Bjugstad from the Utah Mammoth to improve the team’s top nine. Jimmy Snuggerud, who jumped from college hockey to the Blues lineup at the end of last season will have a significant role right from the start of the season. On defence, the Blues acquired defenceman Logan Mailloux, a quality right-shot defence prospect who will have an opportunity to play regularly with the Blues, but it cost the Blues forward Zach Bolduc, who had shown promise as a rookie, tying for the team lead with seven power play goals on his way to producing 36 points (19 G, 17 A) in 72 games. The Blues are getting younger on defence, it appears, as they traded Nick Leddy to the San Jose Sharks and 40-year-old Ryan Suter is without a contract after logging 19:28 of ice time per game for the Blues in 2024-2025, so that creates potential room for Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, and Matthew Kessel on the blueline.

What would success look like?

Returning to the playoffs is the first level of success. As noted, the Blues just squeaked into the last spot in the Western Conference, but they played to a 105-point pace under Montgomery. However, there is room to improve if they are going to move up to the tier with more serious Stanley Cup contenders. This team doesn’t look like a Stanley Cup contender but winning a round or two in the playoffs should not be out of the question.

What could go wrong?

Improvement is necessary if the Blues are going to get off the playoff bubble. They have young players who could all develop and help raise the bar, but if there isn’t enough improvement there, and the goaltending slips a little, that could be all it takes for a team on the wrong side of the possession ledger to miss the postseason.

Top Breakout Candidate

After scoring 51 points (24 G, 27 A) in 40 games as a junior at the University of Minnesota last season, Snuggerud joined the Blues and chipped in four points (1 G, 3 A) in seven regular-season games before adding four points (2 G, 2 A) against the Jets in the playoffs. The 2022 first-round pick is poised to have a big role as a rookie this season, possibly even skating on the Blues’ top line. If so, he may have a chance to score enough that he can contend for the Calder Trophy.

FORWARDS

Robert Thomas

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 28 67 95 1.16

There is a class of players who are rarely classified in that elite tier even if they have all of the qualifications. Robert Thomas definitely fits that description. He is coming off his best season from a points-per-game perspective and would have shattered his career highs if he didn’t miss 12 games with an injury. He was sixth in the league in assists at five-on-five and in the top 20 for overall points. Combine that with him recording another 20+ goal season and Thomas is running out of things to prove to be considered among the league’s best. Those who follow St. Louis know all about this, as he is the engine of that team. His small form doesn’t prevent him from winning pucks in all three zone sand his deadeye-like accuracy with hitting teammates in stride is almost a cheat code for offence. There are few players better right now at breaking down coverage and moving the puck east-west to setup dangerous chances and it’s a big part of the Blues DNA. While those are nice, Thomas’ ability to draw defenders in and hit teammates in stride is his best asset, setting up numerous breakaways and chances with space. The Blues usually have an automatic zone entry whenever he is on the ice because of how quickly he gets through the defence and how accurate he is with feeding teammates into the zone. There isn’t much more for him to prove except to keep up this high level of play and he is a major reason why the Blues made a run to the playoffs.

Jordan Kyrou

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 39 35 74 0.90

Kyrou still finds himself playing second-line minutes despite posting his third 30+ goal season in a row. There was a desire to spread the wealth among the Blues top six and that left Kyrou playing alongside Brayden Schenn instead of his usual running mate in Robert Thomas. While his defensive play has improved leaps and bounds from a few years ago, his reputation as a liability away from the puck has left coaches reluctant to play Kyrou like he is a game-breaking forward. His performance last year suggests that it’s time to take the training wheels off because he did just about everything you can ask from a first line winger except play the minutes. He gives the Blues a dimension they don’t have much of in their forward corps as a volume shooter and someone who can finish his chances at a high rate. He’s versatile with how he creates his chances, although last season was all about the rush game for him, leading the Blues in zone entries leading to scoring chances and overall controlled entries. This has always been his calling card, as he’s naturally gifted with the puck and blessed with great skating. He had a tendency to be a little too patient with creating his offence, but there has been a more direct nature to his game the past couple of years, taking more shots and making more of a beeline to the net instead of waiting for another play to develop. It’s made him one of the Blues best goal-scorers and a driver of their success.

Dylan Holloway

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
78 32 42 74 0.95

The first half of Dylan Holloway’s season was all about letting him play and figuring out where he fits. Even after acquiring him through an offer sheet, there was a lot that wasn’t known about him as an NHL-er playing only sparingly in Edmonton. St. Louis immediately fed him minutes and let him play through his struggles in the first couple months of the year, reaping the benefits around December where Holloway scored at nearly a point-per-game pace for the rest of the year. He was an excellent swiss army knife type player on the Blues second line, doing a little of everything to give some stability there. Taking over center duties for Brayden Schenn and providing a complement to Kyrou’s speed and puck-handling. He is an ideal player for the middle of your roster, mastering the art of being a contributor while not needing to be “the guy” on his line. He will make the simple play more times than not, mastering the art of making the simple 5–10-foot pass to keep the pace going rather than trying to thread the needle or try to skate through traffic. His chemistry was lethal with Kyrou, as there was a lot of open ice for Holloway to explore and his heavy shot became more of a weapon, especially off the rush. A late season injury unfortunately kept him out of the playoffs and the “what if” factor is looming there with how close their first round loss to Winnipeg was. The offer sheet was a coup, and we will see after next year if the Blues plan to make Holloway a long-term piece.

Pavel Buchnevich

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
75 24 35 59 0.79

The Blues decision not to trade Buchnevich at the 2024 deadline and instead re-sign him for six years was a little surprising. He is 30 years old, and the Blues appeared to be entering a re-tool type of situation missing the playoffs for two years in a row. He is an excellent player, but this was a risky contract with his age and the number of cross-checks he eats every game from driving to the middle of the ice. If you only look at point production, last season looks like the beginning of a decline for Buchnevich, scoring at his lowest point-per-game pace since 2020 and this is while getting fed prime minutes on the top line. There is always more than meets the eye in these situations and Buchnevich did a lot that didn’t show up on the scoresheet. Thomas brings the game-breaking skill, but Buchnevich is why they stay a positive line territorially. He fights hard for pucks to get second and third chance opportunities and is very strong on the wall in the defensive zone to kill plays. He might not be the one scoring on the initial chances, but he helps create rebounds and space for everyone else on his line. The one area that has been declining for the last few years is Buchnevich’s individual scoring chance rate, which is something worth keeping the eye on as he goes through his 30’s. His poor finishing season should correct itself, but there might be a cap on how many goals to expect from him going forward if his chance creation continues to decline.

Jake Neighbours

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
78 20 24 44 0.56

Some players do two or three things at a high level and do enough to get by with everything else. In the case of Neighbours, his hands in tight situations and his shot cover up a lot of his flaws and make him an excellent third wheel on the top line. The Blues like to pair him with Thomas, which makes his struggles to skate with the puck not as much of a factor and his ability to corral loose pucks and find the soft spot in the defence more of a weapon. He has ridden this role to back-to-back 20+ goal seasons and last year we got to see more of the playmaking that got him drafted in the first round. He has slowly climbed the ladder in the Blues depth chart, and he seemed to earn more of a solid trust in the coaching staff with how he is regularly deployed on the top line. When Neighbours is playing away from Thomas is when the issues start to creep in, although the emergence of Dylan Holloway gives St. Louis more options if they want a puck-carrier to pair him with. He isn’t someone who can drive his own line, but his goal-scoring and skillset around the net make him one of the better secondary scoring options in the league.

Brayden Schenn

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 16 30 46 0.56

It was another year at the office for Schenn, scoring 50 points for the eighth time in his career and maintaining his regular spot as the Blues 2C. The road to get there wasn’t smooth, though as Schenn struggled mightily to start the season. Still getting on the scoresheet, but his lines were on the wrong side of both the goal and scoring chance battle for the first three months of the season. It wasn’t until they put Dylan Holloway on his line that Schenn began to play like a top sixer again and it gave the veteran a second wind. Holloway moved Schenn over to the wing and the game became somewhat easier, as he didn’t have to cover as much ground as he would playing center and the Blues could conserve his energy by playing him less on the penalty kill. The question with Schenn is how much longer he can keep this up now that he’s 34. The Blues still play him like he’s one of their best offensive players, which includes time on the power play and while Schenn is still smart and skilled enough to contribute, the legs to keep up might not be there anymore. Holloway’s emergence was a lifeline for him staying a positive player in the top six and we will see how this setup works for a full year.

Nick Bjugstad

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
74 9 11 20 0.27

The trip from Arizona to Utah changed a lot of things for Nick Bjugstad. He posted some of the best numbers of his career with the Coyotes while playing in the top six and followed it up with a 19-point season struggling to get more than 13 minutes a night. Part of this was the youth influx in Utah, with the likes of Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther becoming more regular players and others like Jack McBain and Josh Doan getting regular minutes. It became a situation where you can only play so many guys and Bjugstad became more of a depth player. It’s a role he’s accustomed to, and some coaches think suit him best because of his size and dog-on-a-bone mentality when going after pucks. He can still give you something if you play him in offensive minutes, though. He loves shooting the puck and can weave away from defenders to create his own shot, not being too reliant on his linemates. Skilled enough to play on a scoring line, although probably not a game-breaker. St. Louis was an interesting landing spot for him because their top six is pretty set with rookie Jimmy Snuggerud likely taking one of the top wing spots. This puts Bjugstad at the 4C spot, which he can play but limits what he can do, especially with the Blues preferring to play physical forecheckers on the wings there. You shouldn’t expect much offence from Bjugstad if that’s the role he gets, but he is someone that could get power play time on the second unit and maybe spell in a top line winger spot in the event of injuries.

Pius Suter

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
80 20 22 42 0.53

Players like Suter are a testament to how you don’t always need the puck on your stick to be effective. He doesn’t take a lot of shots, but when he does, they’re from right in front of the goaltender because of how good he is at getting to rebounds. If he’s not shooting for a rebound, he’s shooting into an open net because of how good he is at breaking down coverages and getting to where the defence isn’t. He’s very responsible defensively and it makes a guy you can use all over the lineup. If your top line is struggling to keep the puck out of their own end, Suter is a guy you can put there for a few games to calm things down and get everyone playing a simpler game. He’s also someone who meshes with elite skill because of his strong off-puck play and how he prefers to play that way rather than being the quarterback. He also doesn’t need to play with elite linemates to produce, as we saw in Vancouver where he formed a great line with Conor Garland and Dakota Joshua, Garland doing most of the puck-handling on that unit. He’s someone every team should have, and the Blues are a nice spot for him as at least they don’t have to worry about their 3C spot while Suter is on the roster. They also have a lot of decent to strong puck-handlers that complement his offensive game well and he will make everyone around him better defensively.

Alex Texier

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
65 12 16 28 0.43

It’s hard to believe Texier is only 25 years old considering he made his debut for the Blue Jackets in their historic playoff sweep over Tampa all the way back in 2019. The young Frenchman has traveled a lot of miles in his career and his first season outside of Columbus was a bit of rocky tenure. He only played 33 games, and they struggled to find a spot for him. He got a brief run alongside Pavel Buchnevich early in the season and became more of a part-time player shortly afterwards. Even as one of the more expensive depth players, Texier is somewhat of an awkward fit on the lower lines. He might provide more of a spark than Oskar Sundqvist, but the Blues prefer his size, he doesn’t have the same level of speed as Mathieu Joseph, and he doesn’t play with the same motor as a Nathan Walker or Alexey Toropchenko. Therefore, he got pigeonholed into the “top six or nothing” mindset and it was tough for the Blues to fit him in the lineup. He did see the ice in the playoffs, though and he showed he can fit into the checking style game even if scoring off the rush is his calling card. Still on the roster with a $2.1 million cap hit, the Blues will have to find a way to work him into a crowded roster or find him a home elsewhere. Texier has shown enough potential to be worth keeping around on the depth lines.

DEFENCE

Cam Fowler

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
80 10 36 46 0.58

The mid-season trade for Cam Fowler was a perfect marriage of a player looking for a change of scenery and a team needing a player like him. The longtime workhorse of the Anaheim blue line still has the cardio to play 25+ minutes a night, but the Ducks were looking to shift some of his responsibilities to their younger players and Fowler himself probably welcomed the reduced penalty killing duties and getting to play alongside a veteran in Colton Parayko. It was always hard to gauge his numbers in Anaheim, as they were one of the worst teams in the league for the past decade and they regularly bled chances and goals against while he was on the ice. This is despite Fowler being one of their most reliable breakout options, but his strength on zone exits would often lead to empty calorie plays, as they came at the end of long shifts. With the Blues, his on-ice stats did a complete 180 degree turn, as St. Louis owned over 60% of the five-on-five goals with him on the ice and his skillset proved to be complementary to their forward corps that looked to push the pace forward. You saw bits of the old Cam Fowler with him leading the rush, jumping into the play and hitting long stretch passes. The slight reduction in minutes combined with a better supporting cast helped out both parties. The question now is if this is the new normal or just the honeymoon phase after the trade.

Colton Parayko

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
81 12 29 41 0.51

Four years after lingering back issues had some questioning his career, Parayko has stayed mostly healthy since then. This year’s knee procedure being the first case of him missing time due to an injury. His size and mobility make him a favorite among coaches and scouts, a main reason why he is always on Team Canada’s tournament rosters. It wasn’t that long ago when you could consider him one of the league’s top defenceman, but that isn’t so much the case now that he’s 32. He’s still a heavy minute player for the Blues and holds his own in the defensive zone. Quick enough to keep up with top line forwards and he’s excellent at disrupting chances. Uses his stick well on the puck and keeps the front of the net clear incredibly well. Last season was somewhat of a turning point for him changing his defending style, no longer playing aggressive in the neutral zone and waiting for the puck carrier to come to him so he can kill the play along the wall rather than go for the big hit at the blue line. Getting Cam Fowler as his defence partner helped matters here, as Parayko had a more reliable option with getting the puck out of the zone and he could focus more on sealing plays along the wall with the breakout being taken care of. The one thing that could be considered a drawback to Parayko’s game is he likes to do everything, which includes carrying the puck and taking all the shots when he’s on the ice. He might not have the skillset to do the former, but he did get the results he wanted as a shooter, scoring a career high 16 goals, all but two of them coming at even strength. Repeating that will obviously be a challenge, but it’s also not what he’s primarily relied on for.

Philip Broberg

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
78 9 26 35 0.45

Broberg was the riskier of the two players St. Louis acquired from Edmonton via a double offer sheet. His first three years in Edmonton were spent with training wheels latched on whenever he got NHL action. You saw glimpses of what he could do in the Oilers first playoff run, but it was only a brief period, and he was still unproven as an NHLer. The bet St. Louis made paid off, as they immediately put Broberg in the top four and he didn’t look out of place all season. Where he shined the most was in the breakout game, excellent at using his skating to avoid pressure to get easy breakouts for the Blues to move the play forward. They let him play through his mistakes and he became the player they needed to become a staple in their top four. He also offered a bit of game-breaking skill with his ability to go coast-to-coast and while he’s not expected to score much, it’s a huge relief to their forwards who do most of the work in transition. It’s almost a perfect setup for the Blues offence because they’re a team that wants the forward taking most of the shots from close-range, so Broberg only has to be the guy to get them the puck in some way rather than taking 40-foot shots with no traffic in front. He doesn’t miss the net much either, generating a rebound or a scramble in front when he gets a shot through. The next step for him is seeing if he can break into the top pair, but the Blues have gotten plus value out of Broberg as it is.

Justin Faulk

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
77 6 26 32 0.42

Faulk is one of those players who sees his role change seemingly every year. Sometimes he’s your power play quarterback, other times he’s a defensive specialist who eats all the penalty kill minutes. You can argue that he’s miscast in this role because he also eats a lot of chances and goals against while he’s on the ice. He is one of those players who can play 20+ minutes without getting tired, but how effective they are in the role is up for debate. With Faulk it’s a quandary because he has a bomb of a shot from the point and he fills that rover role of a defenceman well with how he likes to creep in to get chances. His passing and erratic play with the puck, however, makes him an awkward fit there and it’s made the Blues second defence pair a revolving door forever. He found somewhat of a niche as Broberg’s partner, as a guy who can take hits and get the puck to his more skilled partner, but even that had shelf life as teams started zeroing in on him to throw the puck up the wall for turnovers. Teaming with Broberg did help somewhat clean up Faulk’s defensive play, as the two were able to keep their heads above water territorially when they were paired together. There isn’t a real challenger for Faulk’s spot yet, so he will remain in the top four until that changes.

GOAL

Joel Hofer

Predicted Stats
GP W L OT SO SV% GAA
42 19 18 4 2 .902 2.72

It felt like old times to look at the St. Louis Blues depth chart and see the statistical similarities boasted last season by Joel Hofer and Jordan Binnington. As one of the league's early adopters of the true tandem, St. Louis has always seemed to thrive when they have two clear-cut options that give them a similar chance of winning night after night. And perhaps best of all, Hofer - one of the team's slightly overbaked success stories in their goaltending prospect history - was the slightly more reliable of the two, boding well for the team's future success when Binnington's current deal expires in 2027.

Hofer was the bright, shiny new addition during the 2023-24 season, when he and Binnington first burst onto the scene as the league's most 'Perfectly Serviceable Tandem' during a heartbreaking postseason miss for the Blues. It felt like a relief, then, to see him maintain his good performance this past year as well, particularly when the Blues managed to convert what he and Binnington had to offer into a surprise last-second playoff berth; it didn't yield a particularly deep postseason appearance, but it implies there's optimism to be had in the Midwest. Expect to see Hofer take on a little more responsibility this season, but don't expect him to take over completely; the Blues love a good partnership, and he and Binnington seem to complement one another perfectly.

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NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Vilardi, Beniers, Roslovic receiving prime opportunities https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-vilardi-beniers-roslovic-receiving-prime-opportunities/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-vilardi-beniers-roslovic-receiving-prime-opportunities/#respond Fri, 08 Nov 2024 22:11:32 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=190609 Read More... from NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Vilardi, Beniers, Roslovic receiving prime opportunities

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Winnipeg Jets center Gabriel Vilardi (13) (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Gabriel Vilardi is riding high with the Jets, Matty Beniers is bouncing back in Seattle, Jack Roslovic has a prime opportunity in Carolina, Rickard Rakell has decent linemates in Pittsburgh, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Following a slow start to the season, when he had just three assists in his first six games, Winnipeg Jets right winger Gabriel Vilardi has picked up his pace and has eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal during a six-game point streak. The Jets are rolling, with a 13-1 record, and Vilardi is riding high on the top line alongside Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor in addition to skating on the Jets’ top power play unit. The key for Vilardi is staying healthy. He had 77 points (45 G, 32 A) in 110 games over the previous two seasons, but he has never played more than 63 games in a season.

#2 Seattle Kraken centre Matty Beniers endured a tough sophomore season in 2023-2024, finishing with 37 points (15 G, 22 A) in 77 games. He started slowly this season, too, managing just one assist through seven games, but he has started to find his range and has delivered eight points (3 G, 5 A) with 10 shots on goal in his past seven games. The issue to be wary of with Beniers is his relatively low shot rate. Among the 227 forwards that have played at least 1000 five-on-five minutes since the start of last season, Beniers ranks 194th with 5.60 shots on goal per 60 minutes and it requires an excellent shooting percentage to sustain production at that rate.

#3 A leading candidate in the Cy Young race, with nine goals and one assist, Carolina Hurricanes right winger Jack Roslovic is making the most of his opportunity to skate on Carolina’s top line. He has seven points (6 G, 1 A) and 18 shots on goal in his past five games, and the opportunity to play with talented linemates Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov gives Roslovic a better opportunity to remain productive. Roslovic had a career-high 45 points (22 G, 23 A) in 2021-2022, but could have a decent shot at surpassing that total this season.

#4 Even as the season appears to be getting away from the Pittsburgh Penguins, veteran winger Rickard Rakell is a reliable contributor, and one that is available in quite a few leagues. Across his past 13 games, Rakell has 11 points (6 G, 5 A) and 39 shots on goal, and he is skating on Pittsburgh’s top line alongside Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, as the Penguins load up, trying to shuffle the deck and get better results.

#5 Veteran New York Islanders right winger Kyle Palmieri is stepping up, and it’s desperately needed on a team that is dealing with injuries to Anthony Duclair and now Mathew Barzal at forward (as well as Adam Pelech on defence). In his past eight games, Palmieri has eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 20 shots on goal while playing more than 18 minutes per game. Palmieri has been a productive winger for a long time and recorded the second 30-goal season of his career in 2023-2024, so he is more than capable of fulfilling an offensive role for the Isles.

#6 While the San Jose Sharks are hoping that their rookie centres Will Smith and Macklin Celebrini will be able to handle scoring responsibilities this season, they are getting some added offence down the middle from Alex Wennberg, the veteran pivot who signed in San Jose as a free agent. Wennberg had no points in seven games to start the season but followed that up with seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 15 shots on goal in the next eight games, averaging nearly 19 minutes of ice time in that stretch.

#7 With injuries forcing the Islanders to move bodies around, they have taken veteran centre Jean-Gabriel Pageau and dropped him on right wing with Anders Lee and Bo Horvat, on what is the Islanders’ top line. He has three goals and 12 shots on goal in the past four games, and Pageau has the added benefit of being a consistent hitter. He has delivered 30 hits in 14 games, which makes him a viable fantasy contributor now that he is in a role to provide offensive production, too.

#8 The Washington Capitals have moved winger Aliaksei Protas to the top line, skating with Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome, and it’s paying off. The monstrous winger, listed at 6-foot-6, 225 pounds, has eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his past five games and while he only has seven shots on goal, Protas already has five goals on the season after scoring six in 78 games last season. Protas’ absurdly high on-ice shooting percentage suggests that he will not continue at a point-per-game pace, but if he is going to keep getting regular shifts on the top line, his offensive contributions could still be significant.

#9 Buffalo Sabres winger JJ Peterka, 22, continues his upward trend. He picked up an assist in Thursday’s 6-1 rout of the New York Rangers, giving him 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 29 shots on goal in 12 games. He is in a prime spot, skating on Buffalo’s top line with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, and Peterka is on his way to becoming a star winger in his own right. He has been on a steady climb, both in the NHL and in international play, with all arrows pointing in the right direction for a skilled forward who keeps the puck moving the right way when he is on the ice.

#10 Los Angeles Kings winger Alex Laferriere has taken a massive step forward in his second NHL season. Even after moving down the depth chart, he has continued to produce for the Kings, delivering eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal in his past seven games. Laferriere has 25 hits in 15 games, enhancing his value for fantasy managers. He is skating with Quinton Byfield and Warren Foegele, but Laferriere is also getting first-unit power play time which his even-strength linemates are not receiving.

#11 The Colorado Avalanche have been decimated by injuries but got a rare piece of good news on the injury front this week when winger Artturi Lehkonen returned to the lineup for the first time since having offseason shoulder surgery. Lehkonen has two points (1 G, 1 A) in two games, but the Avalanche’s depleted forward ranks have also resulted in Lehkonen playing a ton. He has averaged 23:48 of ice time per game in his first two games of the season and is in the prime position, skating on left wing with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.

#12 Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Dmitry Orlov has a ceiling on what his fantasy value might be since he does not play on the power play, thereby limiting his offensive production. However, the Hurricanes are such a juggernaut at even strength that Orlov should not be ignored, either. He has five points (2 G, 3 A) and nine shots on goal in his past four games, upping his total point production to eight points (3 G, 5 A) in 12 games. It helps that his ice time has jumped by more than two minutes per game compared to last season, his first year in Carolina.

#13 Second year Seattle Kraken defenceman Ryker Evans is stepping into a bigger role, especially while veteran Vince Dunn is injured. In his past eight games, Evans has four points (2 G, 2 A) and 13 shots on goal, while averaging 22:15 of ice time per game. In 140 AHL games, counting regular season and playoffs, Evans has contributed 95 points (17 G, 78 A), so he is very capable of producing offensively if given the opportunity. With Brandon Montour and Dunn on the roster in Seattle, he may have to wait a bit, or at least take advantage of the opportunities when they fall to him.

#14 Former Seattle Kraken and current Chicago Blackhawks forward Ryan Donato is earning a bigger role, including first unit power play time and even strength time on the wing with Connor Bedard. In his past seven games, Donato has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 27 shots on goal. He isn’t going to keep scoring on 21.2 percent of his shots, as he has so far this season, but that shot rate is an encouraging sign for Donato to produce more than he did in 2021-2022 when he had career highs with 16 goals and 31 goals.

#15 St. Louis Blues defenceman Colton Parayko has added some offensive flair to his game early in the season. In the past nine games, Parayko has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal while averaging 24:30 of ice time per game. While he has been on the Blues’ second power play unit, he does not have any points with the man advantage so his nine even strength points this season is the same as Sidney Crosby and David Pastrnak, among many others.

#16 Toronto Maple Leafs left winger Matthew Knies obviously has a prime spot on the Leafs’ top line, but he is producing to keep his spot. In his past 10 games, Knies has eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 19 shots on goal. For fantasy managers, he also brings a physical dimension, with 34 hits in 14 games this season, making him more valuable than merely his point production would indicate.

#17 San Jose Sharks rookie centre Macklin Celebrini has returned to action and while he has only played three games thus far, his production – including three goals an assist and 12 shots on goal – is eye popping. He has even been better than break-even on draws in the past two games after losing 13 of 14 faceoffs in his NHL debut. Skating on a line with veterans Mikael Granlund and Tyler Toffoli, there is ample reason to believe that Celebrini will be a Calder Trophy frontrunner in short order.

#18 Veteran Buffalo Sabres winger Jason Zucker has moved around the lineup a bit, but after being held off the scoresheet for the first three games of the season, he has put up 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in his past 11 games. He is skating on Buffalo’s third line right now, with Ryan McLeod and Jordan Greenway, but Zucker also gets first unit power play time, so he has a path to continuing that production.

#19 In the previous two seasons, Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins had a .889 save percentage in 71 games, managing just 20 wins in that time.This season, Merzlikins is splitting starts with Danil Tarasov, but Merzlikins has a .910 save percentage, compared to Tarasov’s .860, so there is an opportunity for Merzlikins to earn a greater share of the starts for a surprisingly competitive Blue Jackets team.

#20 Detroit Red Wings netminder Cam Talbot is stepping up as the much-needed starter. Earlier in the season, he had a 42-save shutout against Nashville and followed that by giving up five goals on 19 shots against the New York Rangers. Since those starts, however, he has a .941 save percentage in his past four starts, giving him a .929 save percentage in seven games this season. Talbot is 37 and may not be able to handle a starter’s workload over the full season, but he had a .925 save percentage through January 2 last season (before finishing with a .903 save percentage after that), so if he has his workload managed, he could still provide value. Right now, he is showing that he is the best option available for the Red Wings and has appeal for fantasy managers, too.

 

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

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MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – ST. LOUIS BLUES – Team Preview https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2024-25-nhl-yearbook-st-louis-blues-team-preview/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2024-25-nhl-yearbook-st-louis-blues-team-preview/#respond Sat, 21 Sep 2024 16:00:50 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=188424 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – ST. LOUIS BLUES – Team Preview

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ST. LOUIS, MO - APRIL10: St. Louis Blues left wing Pavel Buchnevich (89) as seen during a NHL game on April 10, 2024, between the Chicago Blackhawks and the St. Louis Blues in Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire)

Even though the Blues performed better under head coach Drew Bannister than they did under his predecessor Craig Berube, the Blues finished with 92 points (43-33-6), which left them six points behind Vegas for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. Unfortunately, the Blues did not even deserve that much success and were saved by goaltending more than anything else. They ranked 29th in Corsi percentage (45.2%) and 30th in expected goals percentage (44.1%), so this was a team that was getting outshot and out-chanced on a routine basis. With 6.43 goals per 60 minutes on the power play, the Blues were tied for 25th. They ranked 16th with 7.57 goals against per 60 minutes of penalty killing. For all of those rankings which were mediocre or much worse, the Blues’ goaltending tandem of Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer combined for a .906 save percentage, which ranked sixth.

WHAT’S CHANGED? The Blues started the offseason by nibbling around with smaller deals, trading Kevin Hayes to Pittsburgh and adding the likes of Alexandre Texier, Radek Faksa, Mathieu Joseph, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, and veteran blueliner Ryan Suter. None of those players is going to make a huge impact on their own, but that is a significant roster overhaul that can change the mix. The Blues weren’t finished, though, because then they took a run at two restricted free agents from the Edmonton Oilers, signing defenceman Philip Broberg and winger Dylan Holloway to offer sheets, which were ultimately not matched. Broberg was the eighth pick in the 2019 Draft, and Holloway was the 14th pick in 2020. Neither of them could get regular playing time in Edmonton, so a fresh start could do them some good. Veteran defenceman Torey Krug has an arthritic ankle which could potentially keep him out all season and explains at least partly why the Blues were looking to add on defence.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Having missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, the Blues appear to be in rebuilding mode, though more like they are trying to rebuild on the fly rather than take it down to the studs and build from scratch. Thus, if they somehow squeaked into the playoffs, that would count as an on-ice victory for a roster that does not look like it will warrant a playoff spot. On the other hand, if the Blues fall out of the playoffs, they would be better off missing substantially so that they improve their lottery position, and that could mean making substantial trades because the team still has a lot of established vets in key roles.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Expectations already seem to be suitably low for the Blues, so this almost seems like a free season. If they miss the playoffs, by a lot, but maximize the trade value when dealing some of their veteran players, that would be a positive outcome in the long run. Where it could go wrong is if the team ends up finishing just outside the playoffs, just like they did in 2023-24, because it minimizes draft pick value and doesn’t give the team a real chance to trade away some of its more established players. Basically, a repeat of last season would be the wrong result for the Blues.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: This category is primed for left winger Jake Neighbours, a 22-year-old who scored 27 goals and 38 points last season, his first full season in the NHL. Neighbours has plenty of room to improve and while he might not score on 18.6% of his shots on goal again, he is also looking at the possibility of playing with Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou on the Blues’ top line as well as on the first power play unit. With Thomas setting up plays, Neighbours should be able to increase his shot rate and become a more sustainable offensive force.

FORWARD

Robert Thomas

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 30 62 92 1.12

The play of Robert Thomas was a bright spot in what was a chaotic season for the Blues, as he recorded career highs across the board. Most are familiar with his game at this point, he’s a high-end play-making center who is going to outscore a lot of his problems away from the puck. Some of those issues began to shore up this year, as his lines were a little more consistent with driving play and his new-found chemistry with Jake Neighbours was a nice development for the team. His minutes have skyrocketed the past couple of years, eclipsing the 20-minute mark which includes some penalty kill time now. Thomas is still a selective shooter, but his finishing has become more dangerous the past couple of years, looking to shoot more off the rush and poaching for breakaway opportunities more often now. He’s very creative with the routes he takes in the neutral zone, changing directions quickly and he’s one of the best at keeping defenders guessing. He is also one of the best in the league at getting the puck through the middle of the ice, delivering passes with a high level of velocity but also a lot of control so they can be one-timed easily. He can generate passing plays you typically only see on the power play at even strength. Look for him to post big numbers again this year with all his regular linemates coming back.

Jordan Kyrou

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 34 41 75 0.91

Facing heavy criticism from both fans and the coaching staff, Jordan Kyrou was someone who needed to round out his all-around game and last year was a good step forward in that regard. His boxcar stats weren’t as gaudy due to a small dip in power play production, but his lines usually won the five-on-five battle when he was on the ice. Kyrou’s own defensive game hadn’t changed much, but he was a little more conservative when handling the puck in the neutral zone, not always trying to dangle through traffic and deferring to his linemates when he needed to. He also got better at creating offence outside of just the fast break plays off the rush, doing a better job of winning pucks back in the offensive zone and becoming more than just a shooter for Thomas to setup. His season was the best example of how playing better defence sometimes means playing less defence in general. The question is whether it’s worth the trade-off if he’s creating less dangerous chances in transition. With his five-on-five scoring numbers staying pretty consistent, it’s hard to argue with the results. Kyrou still has the talent to be whatever player he wants, so it depends on which direction the new coaching staff leans and who they play him with. Berube gave him the freedom to be that lethal, free-wheeling player that made him such a special talent for the Blues. Last year, he was just as effective but in a completely different way. Finding the middle ground is what next year is all about.

Pavel Buchnevich

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 30 48 78 0.95

Maybe the most popular trade target at the deadline who ended up staying put, Buchnevich is back in St. Louis for six more years after signing a new deal in the off-season. It’s pretty obvious why so many teams were interested in him. He gives you size, skill and can excel as the driver of his line or as the third wheel in support. He was the calming presence on the Thomas’ line, often the middle man with connecting the dots to Kyrou or making a short pass to help setup a zone entry. His release and ability to get a lot of velocity on his shot without much room makes him borderline lethal. You can throw a puck in his general direction and there’s a good chance he will make something out of it. He is also one of the best “power kill” specialists in the league, playing heavy minutes on the Blues penalty kill and always looking to poach for offence. He is also coming off somewhat of a down season production-wise after riding a high shooting percentage in 2022-23, but he does so much outside of scoring it was an afterthought. Granted, it’s hard to believe a player like Buchnevich could ever fall into a shooting slump when you watch him play, but it’s just proof that it happens to everybody. Still the Blues best forward when it comes to all-around play and the one they rely on to calm the waters whenever he’s out there.

Brandon Saad

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
77 19 15 34 0.52

Somewhat flipping the paradigm of the player he was earlier in his career, Saad’s not the strong two-way player he once was. Last year, he was a pure goal-scorer. His 26 tallies were the most he scored since his 2016 season in Columbus, and he got them in a variety of different ways. The sneaky shot off the rush is still there at times, but Saad’s had to adapt as his speed and power have started to decline. Last year, it was all about getting to rebounds, finding sneaky ways to get himself open for one-timers and being the bumper guy in the slot on the power play. He was one of the Blues’ top forwards at producing scoring chances and a good chunk of them came off deflections or rebounds. His all-around game struggled, as the Blues were pushing the puck up-ice most of the time when Saad was out there, but he still managed to have a productive season with a revolving door of linemates. The goal-scoring might not be sustainable, but a year with more stability in who he plays with could give St. Louis some better results overall. The question for the Blues is how much Saad contributed to those play-driving results as opposed to his linemates, which is a tough riddle to crack given how many question marks they have on the roster.

Brayden Schenn

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 21 22 43 0.52

Reaching the 20-goal mark for the third year in a row was a modest feat for Brayden Schenn. The veteran pivot had his least productive season as a Blue and has been on a steady decline for a few years now. He’s never been one to carry the mail on his line, as he’s not the best at navigating through the neutral zone or retrieving pucks, so the revolving door of linemates didn’t do him any favors. Schenn scored on a high percentage of a limited number of shots by poaching for odd-man rushes or following up on plays to create most of his offence. Which the team can get by with but the Blues lack of a consistent second or third line made it more of a burden when taking Schenn’s play-driving struggles into account. It’s the type of offence you’re stuck with when your line is buried in your own zone. Schenn wasn’t the only cause of it, but five-on-five play-driving has never been his forte and the Blues didn’t have the horses to help him with it. A new glut of middle-six forwards have been brought in and the Blues will experiment to see who works best with Schenn. Which has been the story with him since Jaden Schwartz left.

Jake Neighbours

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
79 29 23 52 0.66

Jake Neighbours breakout season was a little surprising, mostly because of how it happened. Primarily a playmaker in juniors, the 22-year-old found his niche in the NHL as a goal-scorer and a net-front presence. His 27 goals were more than he scored at any level in his career, which includes his pre-WHL days. St. Louis is a team with no shortage of puck-carriers, so Neighbours had to adapt his game away from the puck to be a contributor. He proved to be a fast learner, doing an excellent job at getting to the net, following up his linemates and being a passing option for the Thomas’, Kapanens and Kyrous of the team. He did a fantastic job of following the play, getting himself open and finding soft spots around the net to score some lay-up goals. Repeating this will be tough, as his game was pretty one-dimensional. If he wasn’t scoring goals, he wasn’t getting on the scoresheet and the only other times he touched the puck were when he was helping on exits. That said, Neighbours has only scratched the surface of what he can do. He didn’t get a chance to show off the playmaking skill that got him drafted so high and was never trusted to be the driver of his line. There’s an opportunity for him to do more this coming year.

Kasperi Kapanen

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
64 11 15 26 0.41

Most know what they’re getting with Kasperi Kapanen by now. A winger with blazing speed who isn’t going to score as many goals as you’d expect and not give you much else aside from that. Still, he’s a useful guy to have on the penalty kill to keep attackers on their toes, as he’s always a threat to go the other way shorthanded. He’s also a better playmaker than he gets credit for, as the high number of breakaways he gets makes you think he’s a shoot-first type of guy. He showed some decent chemistry setting up rookie Jake Neighbours in his breakout season and it was enough for the Blues to retain him for another year at a modest $1 million AAV. You always want more with Kapanen when you see his raw skills, but a lower-line guy with some offensive pop might be his ceiling. Finding more of a niche in a defensive or possession flipping game could be his ticket to staying in the league long-term. His skating is always going to make teams interested in what he can do and we’ve seen other fast players who struggled to become game-breakers mold themselves into solid checking line players to stay in the league. It’s hard to say if it’s too late for Kapanen to do this, but he has another chance with the Blues this year.

Mathieu Joseph

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
78 12 20 32 0.41

Acquired from Ottawa in a cost-cutting move, Joseph put up modest results in his first real chance in a consistent top six role. He only scored six goals and 35 points while flanking Claude Giroux and Tim Stutzle. For years, he showed a lot of skills that could have translated well in a bigger role. He showed excellent skills in transition in a bottom six role with Tampa Bay and carried that over during his time in Ottawa while struggling to produce with lesser linemates. Last year, he played a noticeably more conservative game, forechecking more and letting Ottawa’s more talented players do the puck-carrying. It led to Joseph having his best season to date boxcar wise, but he struggled to produce offence consistently, both in terms of goals and tilting the ice. Some of that was becoming more reliant on assists via puck touches rather than setting guys up or being directly involved in the play. Regardless, Ottawa elected to move on, and he has a chance to break into a similar role with the Blues. It’s a good chance for him, but also similar to where he was in Ottawa because the team has a gluttony of second/third liners and Joseph will need to do a lot to stand out from the pack. He has the speed and flashes of high-end skill going for him, but you can say the same about a few other players on the Blues roster. He does have the chance to play alongside his brother, though.

Alex Texier

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
80 11 14 25 0.31

The former Blue Jacket’s had a strange career. Brought in right before the team’s historic sweep of Tampa Bay in 2019, he is one of those players who has been around forever but doesn’t have a ton of NHL experience at the same time. Last year was his first real season, as he’s had stops on the injured list and played the 2022-23 season in Switzerland before returning to Columbus last year. He’s from France, but he fits the Swiss-Army Knife description, where he does a pretty good job if you need a guy who can shoot, pass, skate or forecheck at a decent level. He just doesn’t bring much high-end skill to the table and is a solid guy to fill out the middle of the roster if anything. Fits the Blues up-tempo style of play as a guy that loves to carry the puck and has decent enough speed to be a rush threat. Shooting has been wildly inconsistent over his career and will look to pass to keep a cycle going rather than look for a play to setup a goal. Should be a steady guy in the middle of the roster, although it’s very crowded in St. Louis.

DEFENCE

Colton Parayko

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 9 24 33 0.40

The last few years have been a journey for Parayko after recovering from back surgery and becoming “the guy” on a St. Louis blue line still looking for an Alex Pietrangelo replacement. Last year was the first time Parayko looked like a reliable placeholder for that spot, recording monster minutes again (23:52 a game) and giving them reliable results in that role. He played a strong game in his own zone alongside Nick Leddy and is still the Blues most stabilizing presence there. He’s someone you can count on to calm the water at even strength, as he does an excellent job of using his long reach to kill cycles and keep loose pucks away from the front of the net. Mobile enough to play man-to-man and cover for blown assignments if he needs to. The downside is that their game was pretty one-dimensional, as Parayko’s offence was limited to just breakouts and the occasional jump-in off the rush. This will likely be the case going forward on a St. Louis defence corps that is heavy on puck-movers and short on steadier players like Parayko. Sometimes being a great player is filling the role you need to instead of being the game-breaker, which is the situation Parayko is in now. With so many high-end defencemen across the league now, it’s easy to forget about him but his role in St. Louis does not go unappreciated.

Scott Perunovich

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
65 7 27 34 0.52

The NHL has been a tough learning curve for the Hobey Baker winner. Losing almost two seasons to shoulder and wrist injuries that required surgery, last year was his first real pro season at 25 years old. He struggled to get consistent playing time, both due to injury and trips to the press box while the Blues auditioned some of their other young defencemen instead. It’s been tough for him to make his mark as an offensive defencemen on a blue line that has a few of those already, but there is an opportunity for him to stick this year with Torey Krug possibly out for the season. He’s a similar player in terms of style, doing most of his work with the puck in the offensive zone and he’s probably the passer among the Blues current group of defencemen. Adapting to the NHL game is going to take some consistent playing time and practice, as he’s someone who will put up points given the opportunity. Learning how to deal with forecheck pressure and the speed of the game is the key to landing a full-time role.

Justin Faulk

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
74 10 35 45 0.61

Next year will be an adjustment for the veteran defenceman, as he will be without longtime partner Torey Krug. A minute-eater and all-situations player for his entire career, some of the miles started to show on Faulk last year, missing most of the latter half of the season with an injury. Inching closer to the 1000 game mark, his own playing style hasn’t changed much. He’s a stocky, bulky defenceman who is going to jump into the play when he gets the chance and give you a decent mobile option in a top four spot. His defensive game’s always been more of the high-risk variety, playing the man instead of the puck and attacking forwards directly, both on entries and in the defensive zone. While the high-risk nature of his game brings a lot of give-and-take, last year was a bit of an anomaly for him offensively. He scored only two goals despite regular power play time and he’s one of the better shooting defencemen in the league, regularly hitting the 10-goal mark. Expect that part of his game to bounce back. As for his five-on-five game, it will be interesting to see how he does with a new partner. Being matched with Krug was a different look for him, as he was often paired with a stay-at-home guy in Carolina and Krug was the first time in a while he was paired with another puck-mover. They could give him a similar look in Perunovich or have him shepherd another young player like Matthew Kessel. He is in a good position to be a mentor type as the second-pair guy on the right side.

Nick Leddy

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
77 2 19 21 0.27

For years, Nick Leddy always looked like an offensive defenceman cast as a shutdown guy. His smooth skating, one-man breakout ability and endless cardio strength make him a perfect fit in the top four on paper, but the results have been all over the place everywhere he’s been in that role. Despite his raw skillset and how much coaches love him, teams bleed shots and scoring chances against when he is on the ice regardless of who he’s paired with or where he plays. Last year was no different. He puts up a similar stat line every year, isn’t going to give you much physically, but he’ll play his role and eat up minutes for you. Whether that changes with the Blues this year remains to be seen. He was Parayko’s running mate last year until the end of the season when Perunovich received an audition, and it could signal a potential changing of the guard. Still, Leddy is one of their proven options and the Blues know what they’re getting for better or worse.

GOAL

Joel Hofer

Predicted Stats
GP W L OT SO SV% GAA
36 17 15 4 1 0.908 3.08

Jordan Binnington

Predicted Stats
GP W L OT SO SV% GAA
46 21 19 6 3 0.909 2.91

The St. Louis Blues certainly can't fault veteran starter Jordan Binnington for their postseason absence this year, but he's not their main story heading into the 2024-25 season nonetheless. His impressive numbers last year, which saw him sit in the top half of the league's starters despite mediocre play up front, take a backseat when faced with the real story for the new season; Joel Hofer, the 23-year old prospect who served as the team's most recent 'next man up', dazzled with enough prominence that he's likely going to be the piece the Blues build around in the next couple of years.

Binnington and Hofer wrapped up the year with matching 0.913 raw save percentages, posting nearly identical stats when it came to performances relative to their expected goals metrics, quality starts, and relativE performances when up against the rest of the league. That kind of consistency in a tandem is impressive enough, but it looks even more stellar when considering just how little support the pair got from the defence in front of them - and just how little experience Hofer had to build upon throughout the year. You'd never be able to guess just how young he is from watching him play, though. Hofer's ability to avoid getting goaded into telegraphing his movements by opponents left them guessing even when trying to seize on defensive breakdowns. One season as a backup doesn't necessarily provide enough evidence for Hofer to take over from Binnington - and he doesn't necessarily need to, so long as Binnington continues to look good - but a more even split between the pair is likely in the cards moving forward to help with load management. And the changing of the guard likely won't happen this season, but it could be coming in the next few years.

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MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – ST LOUIS BLUES – Team Preview – Player Profiles https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2023-24-nhl-yearbook-st-louis-blues-team-preview-player-profiles/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2023-24-nhl-yearbook-st-louis-blues-team-preview-player-profiles/#respond Mon, 09 Oct 2023 14:35:05 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=182209 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – ST LOUIS BLUES – Team Preview – Player Profiles

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REVIEW: A year after posting a dominant 49-22-11 record, St. Louis dipped to 37-38-7 in 2022-23, bringing its run of four straight playoff berths to an end. Although the Blues still had a solid offensive core with Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich, Brayden Schenn and Robert Thomas each recording at least 65 points, St. Louis went from finishing third in goals per game in 2021-22 (3.77) to 17th last season (3.17) due to a lack of depth. Seattle had an amazing nine players with at least 20 goals in 2021-22 but just three last year (Thomas finished with 18) due primarily to a swath of forwards regressing. On top of that, they didn’t have Ville Husso anymore after he played a key role in pushing them to the playoffs in 2021-22 with his 25-7-6 record, 2.56 GAA and .919 save percentage in that campaign. With Husso gone, St. Louis deployed Jordan Binnington in 61 games, but he wasn’t up for the task, posting a 3.31 GAA and an .894 save percentage. Backup Thomas Greiss was just as bad, finishing with a 3.58 GAA and an .896 save percentage. With the season lost, St. Louis was a major seller at the deadline, moving Ivan Barbashev, Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko in a series of trades that arguably marked the end of an era.

What’s Changed? Greiss retired, opening the door for Joel Hofer to slide into the backup role. The Blues also leveraged some of their freed cap space to acquire Kevin Hayes from Philadelphia for just a sixth-round pick and even got the Flyers to retain half his $7,142,857 annual cap hit for the next three seasons. Hayes proved to be a poor signing for Philadelphia, but he might give the Blues back some of their lost offensive depth. Outside of that, St. Louis didn’t make significant additions as it instead starts to shift its focus towards the future.

What would success look like? Although the Blues have seen plenty of turnover since their 2019 Stanley Cup championship, this team isn’t without bounce back potential. The offensive core of Thomas, Brandon Saad, Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou, Hayes, Schenn and Jakub Vrana is loaded with question marks, but when they’re all clicking at the same time, they make for a dangerous combination.

What could go wrong? Even that wouldn’t solve the goaltending issue though. Binnington was a huge part of the Blues’ 2019 championship, but since then his career has been on a consistent downward slope. At the age of 30, a rebound isn’t impossible, but after setting a new career low in save percentage for the fourth straight year (excluding his one-game stint in 2015-16), it seems improbable.

Top Breakout Candidate: Maybe Hofer will be the solution in St. Louis instead of Binnington? The 23-year-old goaltender did post an encouraging 2.50 GAA and .921 save percentage in 47 AHL contests last season. Granted, Hofer also had a 3.22 GAA and .905 save percentage in six starts with St. Louis in 2022-23, but that’s a small sample size and even then, it was an improvement over Binnington. Given the veteran goaltender’s struggles, Hofer has an opportunity here that he might take advantage of.

Forwards

Jordan Kyrou

Even though he scored a career high in goals, the Blues coaching staff and front office had a lot of criticism for Kyrou’s play this year. In some ways it was more of the same, he is still one of the most lethal players in the league off the rush and he is very tough to stop when he reaches his second gear. He doesn’t need to get a lot of power on his shot to score and offense comes easy for him. The Blues were more concerned with his habits after plays were broken up or when he didn’t have the puck. Perhaps his -38 set off some red flags with the coaching staff. It’s something that isn’t entirely in his control, but his tendency to push for offense and carry the puck through traffic can lead to some headaches for the coaching staff. Firewagon hockey moments are going to happen with talented players, but a majority of Kyrou’s offense came in transition last year. Some players can get by with this, it just becomes tougher when your team loses a couple of Jenga pieces like the Blues did with Perron and eventually O’Reilly at the trade deadline. The Blues might have expected more out of Kyrou, but they can certainly do worse than him if he is just a scoring winger.

Pavel Buchnevich

A mid-round sleeper in fantasy hockey almost every year, Buchnevich picked up where he left off with the Blues last year. He was the one player on the team that is hard to critique because he excelled in just about every area last year. Buchnevich was their only top player who could score without living and dying off rush chances and provided a much needed forechecking element to their top lines. He doesn’t have a huge frame, but he reads exits well and he can get a lot of torque on his shot without much time or space. It’s surprising how accurate he is because he uses a sweeping motion to shoot the puck and creates a launching pad type of effect instead of settling it down or dusting it off. Catches goaltenders off-guard and he was even better as a passer, ranking second behind Thomas in scoring chance setups. He doesn’t need to be the primary puck carrier or distributor to be effective and masters the details of the game when it comes to scoring. The only thing you can criticize him for, is that he could have shot the puck more and injuries limited him to only 63 games. St. Louis’ best all-around player entering this season.

Robert Thomas

Thomas proved that his 2022 season wasn’t a fluke at the very least, remaining one of the league’s premier playmakers. He is someone who can excel in both phases of the game, having the speed to keep up with St. Louis’ powerful rush offense and capable of slowing the game down when the Blues start cycling. He is at his best when he can pull up in the offensive zone and wait for a lane to open up along the wall, almost like he is setting up a power play at five-on-five. That part of his game didn’t change much, it's just hard to make these plays at the same rate as he did the previous season, which is why he went from sixth in the league in 5-on-5 primary assists to 33rd. Still in the upper echelon of the league, there shouldn’t be any concerns about Thomas’ ability as a playmaker. He is also a very selective shooter, firing the puck at an incredibly low rate and makes up for it by being a strong finisher. Also made progress with helping out the defense on zone exits instead of cherry-picking for entries. Likely the Blues centerpiece going forward and has big shoes to fill with O’Reilly now in Nashville.

Brayden Schenn

You can usually count on Brayden Schenn to hit the 20-goal mark in a full season, and it doesn’t matter how good or bad the rest of his stats are. His deceptive release is always going to make him a viable option on the power play, as he can beat goaltenders on some awkward looking shots, and he is very good at not telegraphing where the puck is going. Even strength play is a different story. Schenn is a deliberate player with the puck, so it can be tougher for his skill to translate here. Most of his goals come off breakaways or a passing play that somebody else started. He was a tough stylistic fit at times because he is a slower player on a team with a lot of speed on the wings and had to play all over the lineup last year. Still showed some decent chemistry with Kyrou at times, creating some quick-strike offense with breaking up plays high in the zone and catching defenses off guard. Also coming off one of his strongest seasons as a playmaker and was third on the Blues in scoring chance setups at 5-on-5. The main concerns with Schenn are his defensive play and the five years left on his contract going forward.

Kevin Hayes

Even with Hayes having a rebound season where he was injury free, it was all but a certainty that he was getting traded. He was healthy scratched in December despite leading the team in points and moved from center to wing in favor of rookie Noah Cates. Despite any progress he was making, it was clear that he wasn’t going to be a long-term fit in Philadelphia, this is even before mentioning his contract which carries a cap hit over $7 million AAV for the next three years. Thus, he was sent to St. Louis with the Flyers retaining half of his cap hit. Few players had a tougher time both on and off the ice than Kevin Hayes over the past couple of years, so it was encouraging to see show signs of the player he was in his prime. The fit with St. Louis is intriguing, because they’re at their best off the rush and Hayes is the type of center who loves to regroup in the neutral zone and attack from there. The Blues have some good speed on the wings to complement him, so it’s really just a matter of whether he can hold his own defensively, which is where some of the friction with the Flyers coaching staff started. The Blues have him for three more years, but at under $4 million AAV he is a nice placeholder to have.

Jakub Vrana

The story around Jakub Vrana is that he could easily be the biggest steal in the league if he gets the playing time. The “if’ part just never happens. Since 2020, only Auston Matthews has scored more goals per 60 minutes, which sounds impressive except that Matthews has played almost 100 more games during that time. Playing only two games with Detroit last year before entering the Player’s Assistance Program, Vrana eventually passed through waivers and spent two stints in the AHL before St. Louis decided to take a chance on him with the only risk being his $5.25 million AAV cap hit. His short stint with the Blues was business as usual for him, he scored 10 goals while playing a third line role and showed flashes of being the game-breaker he was at times in Washington and Detroit. His speed and shot are something a lot of teams dream they could have, so this is a potential coup for St. Louis if they can get regular playing time out of him. Of course, this is exactly what the Red Wings were saying a year ago.

Kasperi Kapanen

Claimed off waivers by St. Louis after three frustrating years in Pittsburgh, the winger made a good first impression in first few games with the Blues, scoring twice in his first three games and tallying 14 points in only 23 games to end the year. Possessing blazing fast speed, a decent shot and puck skills, it’s easy to see why the Blues wanted to take a gamble on him even with one year left on his contract. The Blues seem to be putting a focus on team speed and Kapanen is a guy who can certainly help that. It didn’t work in Pittsburgh, as he ended up being a one-dimensional player who fought to get the puck out of his own zone more than he created off the rush. He could break the game open at times but was usually a drag on any line he was on, and he gave back most of the offense he created. This is something you live with if a player is finishing his chances, but with only seven goals in 43 games, Pittsburgh opted to move on. His shooting slump immediately turned around in St. Louis, so he at least enters next season on a positive note and a fresh start.

Brandon Saad

Now one of the oldest forwards on the team, Saad is in an interesting situation going forward. He is one of the only wingers in the top-nine who brings some level of defensive play, which balances out some of the one-way players the Blues brought in like Kapanen and Vrana. He’s also signed for three more years on a non-cheap contract and is coming off one of the lowest-scoring seasons of his career. Most of that is due to him having only four points on the power play despite getting consistent minutes on the second unit. Saad was a consistent driver of offense and scoring chances for years and this part of his game started to hit a decline last year. The saving grace is he can still finish at a decent rate and the Blues were a positive territorial team with him on the ice. Some of that is a by-product of being attached at the hip to Ryan O’Reilly for most of his minutes, but Saad is a smart player who still has decent wheels to help drive the play north. Saad’s skillset always paired best with a strong, play-driving center (ROR, Kadri, Toews), so he could be thrusted into a different role this year with the Blues having a void there.

Sammy Blais

Sammy Blais’ career with the Rangers might as well be a write-off. His first season was cut short with a knee injury and did not play much beyond the fourth line this past year. He did not score a goal with the Blueshirts over 54 total games. Returning to St. Louis as part of the Tarasenko deal rejuvenated his career. He was playing more and got back to being the skilled agitator that he was during the team’s Cup run. He actually set a career high in goals and points in his 31 games with the Blues, which probably tells you more about how happy he was to be back on a team where he’s comfortable. He might not get the same minutes or linemates he did in the second half of last year as the Blues brought in some reinforcements around the trade deadline, but he is the type of player who can move up and down the lineup if he needs to. The hot streak he had to end the year probably helps his case. That said, Blais has yet to play a full NHL season because he plays like a bowling ball and will miss a lot of games with prolonged wear and tear.

Jake Neighbours

There were reasons to be optimistic about Jake Neighbours’ going into his rookie year. The Blues liked him enough to keep him around for a full nine-game audition the previous season & he fits the mold to be a good complementary piece on almost any line. He has great hands and can play the intense, forechecking game most coaches want from their energy line players. Things didn’t go as well as they hoped. Neighbours scored only 10 points, seven of which came during the month of January and struggled to find his niche at the NHL level. Injuries and demotions soon derailed his season. The NHL game doesn’t come easy to everyone and Neighbours is a good example of that. He was never projected to have a high offensive ceiling, but he never got a chance to show what he could do either, as his offense was limited to breakaways and turnovers. He showed some ability to play the checking game, but never really established himself as an impact player. He and the Blues are hoping next year goes better.

Defense

Justin Faulk

The nice thing about a defenseman like Justin Faulk is he can play whatever role you put him in at an adequate level. He wore a lot of hats in his early days with Carolina and has done the same with the Blues. Focusing on offense and helping the Blues transition game the last, Faulk has set career highs in points. His great wrister helps with that, as it’s common to see him score double-digit goals like he did last year. He has also been playing big minutes in the NHL since he was 19 years old and has gotten better with not making careless plays out of his own zone. Probably gets lost in the shuffle as one of the NHL’s better puck-moving defensemen. Can play the shutdown role and kill penalties but doesn’t defend entries well. He carries a lot of weight around and has a short reach, so he tends to get burned when going for the big hit or when he needs to turn. It’s something the Blues have worked around before, but it’s tougher to hide when the majority of their games are played off the rush. The Blues score a lot of goals when Faulk is on the ice, but they give up a lot as well.

Torey Krug

Nobody is ever going to confuse Torey Krug with a shutdown defenseman, but you can at least bank on his teams to score more goals than they give up. Last year was only the second time in his career where that didn’t happen, as the Blues owned only 45% of the 5-on-5 goals when Krug was on the ice. Every defenseman has a year like this and it’s a little more concerning when it happens after they turn 30, as that is the time most hit a wall. With Krug, it’s a little complicated. He was still a great puck-mover and the Blues best defenseman at producing scoring chances. The main thing that changed for him was he struggled mightily to retrieve pucks and handle forecheck pressure. This could just be age and injuries piling up, but Krug is usually a reliable player here and could not get to loose pucks with the same level of efficiency last year. Some players can work around this, but it is tough to adapt when this part of the game has been so easy for Krug his entire career. He also missed almost 20 games with injuries and saw a reduction in ice-time to the 18–19-minute range, his lowest since his early days in Boston.

Colton Parayko

Now two years removed from back surgery, the Blues don’t have any concerns about the durability of their cornerstone defenseman. The version of Parayko they’ll get for the next seven years, however, is something they might be worried about. In some cases, you can deal with a low-event defenseman who plays the minutes Parayko does, especially on a team as chaotic as last year’s Blues. It becomes more of a problem when that guy makes $6.5 million AAV until the year 2030. Parayko’s size and puck-handling will always make him a useful player. He just isn’t the same guy who could rush the puck out of the zone and be a threat to break the game open anymore. It’s an interesting development because the tougher parts of his game are the one thing that has held up post-surgery, while his offense and the more dynamic aspects have suffered. That and the Blues lacked a real shutdown guy all of last year and Parayko is the one guy who can fill that role by default. Things could be worse. The defensive strengths are still there, and the offense is at times, but the Blues are lacking a dominant top defenseman if this is the new normal for Parayko.

Nick Leddy

Looking at his profile, it might surprise some folks that Leddy has never been a great play-driver or someone who creates a lot of offense in volume. An effortless skater, Leddy is usually one of the top defensemen in the league at leading zone entries, translating this to tangible results has been a problem for most of his career. Part of it is because he isn’t the best at starting exits and needs a partner who can dig the puck out so he can skate it out of the zone after the first forechecker. He was able to put this to use with the Blues last year, as St. Louis scored at a decent clip with him on the ice. His skills as a passer definitely help a little. You might not create many chances with him on the ice, but the ones you get will be good. His issues as a defender, however, can be tougher to work around. He will often give forwards the blue line when they enter the zone and plays more of a shot-blocking role and someone who absorbs damage rather than kills plays. Leddy’s always been an interesting player to watch for this reason. Some defensemen can be best described as “minute eaters” and it’s a fitting description for the long-time Islander.

Goaltending

Jordan Binnington

There might not be another goaltender in the NHL that has the same track record of inconsistency that Jordan Binnington does. While his St. Louis predecessor Jake Allen has struggled throughout his career with up-and-down weeks during each season, Binnington’s rises and falls seem to follow entire seasons as he goes; he’s either an unstoppable force or an easy-to-goad replacement-level netminder with a hot head and a trigger-esque temper that throws his game into a tailspin. That makes it hard to tell just what St. Louis is gambling on this year; he’ll either be the underdog capable of playing to prove his doubters wrong, or he’ll be the former Stanley Cup Champion who insisted he had an unflappable personality but was all too easy to coax into costly mistakes after just a bad goal or two.

From a technical standpoint, Binnington has the ability to play a game that preaches crisp edgework and an almost bored-looking depth management style designed to rattle his opponents and prevent him from overcommitting to bad shots. But over the last two seasons, he’s also shown a side to his game that exaggerates his technique and pushes him out of position, allowing baffling goals that seem to rattle him more than they should. His game doesn’t rely on a smooth rhythm nearly as much as Allen’s does, so it’s a different problem in St. Louis right now – but as yet another year approaches, it’s hard not to wonder just why the Central Division club’s starters seem to be so easy to throw off their games.

Projected starts: 60-65

 

 

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MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – ST. LOUIS BLUES – NHL Player Profiles https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2022-23-nhl-yearbook-st-louis-blues-nhl-player-profiles/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2022-23-nhl-yearbook-st-louis-blues-nhl-player-profiles/#respond Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:19:49 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=177483 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – ST. LOUIS BLUES – NHL Player Profiles

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ST. LOUIS, MO - APRIL 09: St. Louis Blues center Robert Thomas (18) with the puck during a NHL game between the New York Islanders and the St. Louis Blues on April 09, 2022, at Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire),

FORWARDS

Robert Thomas

A new offensive approach from the Blues and a wonderful connection with Vladimir Tarasenko paved the way for Robert Thomas emerging as one of the league’s top playmakers. Only Johnny Gaudreau produced more assists at five-on-five than him and being the new focus of the Blues offense along with Jordan Kyrou. It’s a not a new development, as he’s been a good playmaker for most of his career and he’s been especially good at finding lanes that most players wouldn’t notice. He also moves the puck with such velocity, almost like he’s shooting it, that he can make those tough plays through the slot or from behind the net. Linking up with Buchnevich and Tarasenko took his game to another level, giving him linemates to work the give-and-go game, Tarasenko being an elite shooter to boot. Their tendency to play catch in the slot or off the rush also made Thomas a better goal-scorer, giving him plenty of lay-up scoring chances where he just had to tap the puck across the line. He’s also a unique player because he can make such accurate plays from awkward positions or when he’s looking in the opposite direction. Linemates don’t necessarily need to be “open” for him to make a play because of how hard he passes the puck. He doesn’t have a blazing speed either, so defenses will usually converge on him before he gets rid of the puck to the guy they just left open. He injected some life into a stagnating Blues offense last year and will be their focal point going forward.

Jordan Kyrou

Sometimes it takes a couple of years for a player to harness a gifted skillset into something that works in game situations. This was the case for Jordan Kyrou, who was first called up in 2018 and didn’t establish himself as an NHLer until 2021. His speed combined with a more direct approach with the puck made him a lethal player off the rush and injected some new life into the Blues forward corps. Last year was just another step in that development, playing consistent second line minutes and always a threat to when the puck started going north. The biggest development with Kyrou is that he doesn’t always need to be the one leading the rush to be effective. While he still made those beautiful coast-to-coast rushes, you saw more goals where he was trailing the play or finding creative ways to get himself open. His shot is just as good of a weapon as his skating, and he was most effective as a shooter when he put the brakes on to get a better shot instead of flying downhill with the puck. It made linemates sort of irrelevant because he created so much quick-strike offense and just needed someone to get him the puck. His skill would take over after that and his speed gave him a lot of space to make the final play for a scoring chance. St. Louis also utilized him as a shooting option more on the power play, becoming the triggerman from the left circle. The non-scoring side of the game is still a work in progress for him and where the inconsistent linemates. He’s a very smart player with the puck, but his lines struggled defensively and had to outscore most of their problems. He is skilled enough to get away with it, but it is one area of the game that can be cleaned up.

Ryan O’Reilly

The Blues will remain a good team for as long as Ryan O’Reilly can lace up a pair of skates. He is the foundation of their entire structure and allows the Thomas’ and Kyrous to create with so much freedom. He has the least desirable role on the team as the top matchup and defensive center, his workload being more than other with how deep he plays in the defensive zone to cover up some of the weaknesses on their blue line. O’Reilly often acts like a third defenseman with how much space he takes up below the faceoff dots and retrieves the puck to help with breakouts. He could have a 20-point season and still bring value to St. Louis with the shutdown game he brings. Fortunately, he can still produce offensively even though he’s more of a power play specialist now. His combo of strength and working so much on his backhand made his line a threat for goal-line plays. On the power play he does a great job of directing traffic from the bumper position, not expending much energy while still making himself an option for quick plays. He will often get himself open without having to move. Thomas’ emergence also took some pressure off him to play 22-24 minutes a night, playing in the 17–19-minute range instead. It’s an encouraging development as O’Reilly enters his 30’s and possibly slides into more of a pure shutdown role with David Perron going out the door.

Pavel Buchnevich

Coming to the right team at the right time, Buchnevich had the type of season the Rangers always knew he had in him, scoring a career-high 76 points. He played a Swiss Army type of role on the Blues top line, reading off what Robert Thomas was doing with the puck and quickly making the next play. His instincts on offense were always on another level and it makes up for not having burning speed or a lethal wrist shot. He takes smart routes to pucks, reads his linemates well and has a deceptively good release on his shot, especially off-one-timers. He has an awkward, “sweeping” motion on his shot and it’s very tough for goalies to track where the puck is going. It was a perfect combination with the skill the Blues paired him with. Thomas and Tarasenko drew much attention from the defense that Buchnevich ended up being left open in coverage and let his skill take over from there. It was a little different than the role he played in New York with two goal-scorers (Kreider and Zibanejad) but similar in that he just needed to read off his linemates and be more of a shooting option when necessary. This could make him a good replacement for Perron on the O’Reilly line, although he would be tough to mess with the chemistry he had with Thomas.

Vladimir Tarasenko

It was common thought that Tarasenko would start the 2021-22 season on another team. He spent the previous two years injured and frustrated with where he was at in St. Louis and the writing was on the wall that he was likely getting traded. Nothing materialized and Tarasenko ended up having the best season of his career statistically. The 30-year-old was one of the most productive forwards in the league with only four players scoring more points per 60 minutes at even strength. He went about it a little differently than years past. Tarasenko was a “power forward” in his prime, using his strength to beat defenders and muscle his way to the front of the net. Last year, he was more of an opportunistic player, staying high in the zone and reading off his linemates and focused on making himself a passing option instead of attacking the puck. It was a huge part of Robert Thomas’ breakout year. There needs to be a great shooter to go with a great playmaker, a void Tarasenko filled wonderfully, and the Blues needed to put their former star in a position to succeed while he was still on the team. It turned what looked like an ugly situation into one of the most dangerous lines in hockey.

Brayden Schenn

Spending most of the year stapled to Jordan Kyrou, the former fifth overall pick added another 20 goal/50+ point season to his resume. He is one of the longest tenure players on the Blues and has had a knack for goal-scoring since entering the league, possessing one of the more unorthodox looking wrist shots you’ll see. Schenn’s concerns lie away from the puck, as his line struggled to keep the puck in the offensive zone when he was on the ice. The Blues hoped that pairing him with Kyrou could help them outscore their problems, namely on counterattacks. It worked to an extent, as Schenn created most of his offense off the rush and had one of his best seasons in terms of finishing at even strength. It worked to a point, but Schenn didn’t create the offense in volume like he could in past years, so he was prone to some scoring droughts which caused the Blues to switch up their lines. A trip to Ryan O’Reilly’s wing didn’t help and they eventually reverted to the feast-or-famine approach with hoping Schenn’s line could finish most of their shifts with a faceoff at center ice. Oblique and knee injuries limit how much physical play he can take, but next year should be another decent-scoring year for him if his puck skills don’t drop off.

Brandon Saad

It says something about a team’s forward depth when a guy with 49 points is 9th on the entire team, but it was just another year at the office for Brandon Saad. The veteran forward is known for consistency, always getting himself to at least 20 goals and having a positive impact when he’s on the ice. Last year was a little different. Whether it was the ankle injury or the return to a top-line role, Saad wasn’t the same play-driver he was in years past. Part of that comes with the territory when you’re Ryan O’Reilly’s winger, but he seemed to struggle with some of the added defensive responsibility, especially with getting pucks out of the zone smoothly. His offense was also a little more one-and-done, looking for more of a perfect shot than playing a straight-line game like in his heyday with the Blackhawks. Ankle injuries are tough when you’re a player that relies on speed for so many years, so a clean bill of healthy could be what he needs to get back on track in 2022. That or he might be more suited for a scoring line role because the quick-strike offense is still there, but the all-around game isn’t what it was before.

Ivan Barbashev

The most surprising member of the Blues 20+ goal scorer club, Barbashev saw a huge reward for the Blues newfound love for playing off the rush. Stuck in depth forward purgatory for a few years, he was a guy who had obvious skill but had trouble making an impact on a consistent basis. If he wasn’t scoring, he was invisible and while he still has some issues away from the puck, his points explosion this year glossed over it a little. He would take a lot of risks with flying the zone and being puck vulture off turnovers to strike in transition. With how well the Blues moved the puck around last year, it worked and Barbashev was a nice utility piece they could move around on every line. It also made him a threat to go the other way shorthanded. Repeating this will be a tall task. The 26 goals he scored was over half of his previous career goal total and his tendency to fly the zone made it tough for him to stick on one line because he played such a one-man game. He summarized the Blues boom-or-bust offense approach and while it was great when it worked, it’s a style that’s not exactly repeatable. He is a very tough player to project for the Blues with his previous career numbers being so low and him likely playing a utility role next year.

Logan Brown

Acquired in a preseason trade for Zach Sanford, the former Ottawa first round pick played sparingly with the Blues. He got the “leftovers” as far as linemates are concerned, with the top-nine already established. Possessing a frame like an NFL Linebacker, Brown uses his size well to protect the puck down low and keep cycles going, His hands and vision are his best skills and while some of the finesse plays he made in the AHL aren’t open at this level, he does well at making the simple plays with getting the puck up high to relieve pressure or making plays from behind the net. It might not lead to a lot of goals, but it got the job done in a fourth line role with newcomer Alexei Toropchenko on his wing. That said, he was a healthy scratch for the entire playoffs in favor of veteran Tyler Bozak. Brown should have the inside track for a roster spot with the 4C job up for grabs and St. Louis having some familiarity with him. Newcomer Noel Acciari and rookies Zachary Buldoc and Jake Neighbours could have something to say about that, though.

Klim Kostin

With Perron leaving having a trickle-down effect on the rest of the lineup, the door could be open for Klim Kostin to get a chance to stick in the lineup. Bouncing between the minors and the NHL for most of his career, the 23-year-old has yet to leave much of a mark at either level. He spent most of last season with the Blues, posting only 9 points looking like a shoot-first type of player in his 40-game stint. He struggled to keep up with the pace the Blues were playing at, always needing to survey the rink before he moved the puck and having a lot of plays die on his stick because of it. That could just be part of never having a consistent role or the trust of the coaching staff, but this year figures to be his last chance with the Blues. A former first round pick, the Blues will likely give him a chance to find a role, especially with Toropchenko on the shelf for six months, but he might need to find a niche as a forechecker or a grinder instead of the player he was drafted to be.

DEFENSE

Torey Krug

It isn’t a coincidence that the Blues went to more of a run-and-gun style after signing Torey Krug. He is the best playmaker on the St. Louis blue line, both in transition and with making east-west plays in the offensive zone. It’s a skillset that has meshed well with the Blues recent youth movement, giving guys like Kyrou and Thomas the puck in space. Krug is also still one of the better power play quarterbacks in the league, very deceptive with how he runs the top of the umbrella and a master of the fake-shot pass. You can always count on him to put up decent numbers as long as the Blues power play is clicking. The downside to Krug’s game is the level of give-and-take. He has to play aggressive and stay up in the play to be effective and sometimes it burns against tougher matchups. While still agile, Krug doesn’t recover after getting beat at the line as smoothly as he used to, which leads to a lot of back-and-forth play while he is on the ice. It’s why the Blues rotated a safer option like Nikko Miikola or Marco Scandella in on the top pair with Faulk late in games. Krug’s skill is hard to find anywhere else, but his overall game is much more feast-famine than it used to be.

Justin Faulk                                                                               

Justin Faulk’s three years in St. Louis is proof of how random player development can be because they’ve gotten a different version of Faulk in all three years. His first year was frustrating, as he was stuck in a depth role on his offside on a crowded blue line. The following year he was cast in a shutdown role and had maybe his best season defensively, giving them a Kirkland version of Alex Pietrangelo. Last year, he was more of the high-risk defenseman we remember from Carolina. Playing the puck retriever role alongside Krug, Faulk was a steadying presence on the Blues top pair. He would pick his spots more than the other defensemen instead of going for the home run play on every shift and he could pitch in offensively when needed. He never looks like the type who will join the rush because of his stocky bodytype, but he covers a lot of ground in his first couple of strides. He also has a great wrist shot, scoring 16 goals with minimal power play time. Faulk is a nice player to have because he has the tools to slide into any role you need and give you at least adequate minutes. The only concern is that his play seems to vary year-to-year, but the Blues are hoping a third year with the same defense partner can give the team some level of consistency.

Colton Parayko

The Blues were thrilled to get 80 games from Parayko last year. He played almost all of the previous year with an injured back and a bulging disc, ailments that are known to shorten careers and especially bad news for a defenseman. He played in almost every game for the Blues, averaging almost 24 minutes a night with heavy penalty killing duty. He plays more of a pure shutdown role than he used to, not relied on much for offense and focusing more on patrolling the front of the net instead of trying to lead the rush. He adapted well to this new conservative style, even if it’s a bit of a styles clash with the rest of the Blues team. Parayko used to be very aggressive at defending his blue line and now he’s a little more conservative, using his size and reach to skate forwards into a corner instead of standing them up when they enter the zone. The offense is still there, as he could create off the rush when he needed to but more in splash plays than in volume. Part of that is because his line wasn’t deployed much in the offensive zone, and he was on the ice to stop plays rather than start them. It’s hard to say what he is now and if this is the “new normal” for Parayko. He still has the motor to play the big minutes, but if he can’t help tilt the ice like he used to, his new eight-year contract might be a problem for St. Louis in a couple of seasons. We will see how a full year with a clean bill of health goes for him and if he can get some of that explosiveness back.

Nick Leddy

Nick Leddy has been the same player for his entire career with varying degrees of results. He can play a lot of minutes, be a one-man breakout and bring a mobile option to your top-four. His play away from the puck also hasn’t change much, as he doesn’t always have the best feel for where the puck is going and will chase often. He also has trouble making plays under pressure if he can’t just skate it out, which leads to a lot of prolonged shifts in the defensive zone and his strengths as a skater are kind of a moot point in those situations. What is nice about Leddy, though is he is the type who recovers well and doesn’t let one mistake affect the rest of his game. He doesn’t “chase” a lot of mistakes and will go to protect the house if he turns the puck over and he plays a very even-keel game even if his last shift was a disaster. We saw a lot of this in the Colorado series where he had a very tough Game 5 against the Avs and still had the composure to make a great play to keep the puck win on St. Louis’ overtime winning goal. On a team that trades chances like the Blues, it’s a quality that might be overlooked even if he doesn’t post the best numbers. If anything, he adds some mobility to the Blues backend and secondary powerplay option.

GOALTENDING

Jordan Binnington

There might not be another goaltender in the NHL that has the same track record of inconsistency that Jordan Binnington does. While his St. Louis predecessor Jake Allen has struggled throughout his career with up-and-down weeks during each season, Binnington’s rises and falls seem to follow entire seasons as he goes; he’s either an unstoppable force or an easy-to-goad replacement-level netminder with a hot head and a trigger-esque temper that throws his game into a tailspin. That makes it hard to tell just what St. Louis is gambling on this year; he’ll either be the underdog capable of playing to prove his doubters wrong, or he’ll be the former Stanley Cup Champion who insisted he had an unflappable personality but was all too easy to coax into costly mistakes after just a bad goal or two.

From a technical standpoint, Binnington has the ability to play a game that preaches crisp edgework and an almost bored-looking depth management style designed to rattle his opponents and prevent him from overcommitting to bad shots. But over the last two seasons, he’s also shown a side to his game that exaggerates his technique and pushes him out of position, allowing baffling goals that seem to rattle him more than they should. His game doesn’t rely on a smooth rhythm nearly as much as Allen’s does, so it’s a different problem in St. Louis right now – but as yet another year approaches, it’s hard not to wonder just why the Central Division club’s starters seem to be so easy to throw off their games.

Projected starts: 60-65

 

 

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CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Evgeni Malkin returns to action and Evander Kane might have a new team soon. Jared McCann, Nico Hischier, Clayton Keller, Trevor Moore and more https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-evgeni-malkin-returns-action-evander-kane-team-soon-jared-mccann-nico-hischier-clayton-keller-trevor-moore/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-evgeni-malkin-returns-action-evander-kane-team-soon-jared-mccann-nico-hischier-clayton-keller-trevor-moore/#respond Sat, 15 Jan 2022 22:57:13 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=175008 Read More... from CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Evgeni Malkin returns to action and Evander Kane might have a new team soon. Jared McCann, Nico Hischier, Clayton Keller, Trevor Moore and more

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Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Evgeni Malkin returns to action and Evander Kane might have a new team soon. Jared McCann, Nico Hischier, Clayton Keller, Trevor Moore and more.

PITTSBURGH, PA - MARCH 09: Pittsburgh Penguins Center Evgeni Malkin (71) handles the puck during the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Rangers on March 9, 2021, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The Pittsburgh Penguins have waited patiently and finally had Evgeni Malkin make his season debut this week after a long recovery from knee surgery. He has taken his place on Pittsburgh’s first power play unit and is centering Jeff Carter and Kasperi Kapanen. While injuries have plagued Malkin throughout much of his career, he is still averaging 1.17 points per game since 2017-2018, the seventh highest rate in the league in that time.

#2 After the San Jose Sharks waived left winger Evander Kane for the purposes of terminating his contract, the door was open for Kane to sign with any team as a free agent. The Edmonton Oilers may be the landing spot most loudly rumored. That would obviously present a beneficial opportunity for Kane, who might even get to play with Connor McDavid. Alas, before the deal could even get signed, the league was reportedly investigating another potential COVID-19 protocol violation from Kane and that has put any signing on pause.

#3 If you can get past the off-ice issues, of which there are many, Kane has been a very productive player. In the three seasons prior to this one, Kane was tied for sixth among left wingers with 78 goals. He was tied with Tom Wilson for most penalty minutes among forwards (317) and his 405 hits ranked 13th among left wingers. Kane’s 678 shots on goal in that span ranked third among left wingers. The shots and goals are difference makers in most fantasy leagues, the hits and penalty minutes are typically in the realm of banger-style leagues. Of course, he comes with more risk than the average player for a lot of reasons but, for fantasy purposes, he does have higher upside than the standard waiver wire addition.

#4 Seattle Kraken center Jared McCann had a breakthrough season for the Penguins last year, stepping into a bigger opportunity when Malkin was injured, and he has continued producing with the expansion Kraken. In his past five games, he has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 21 shots on goal and is up to 15 goals in 31 games. He has emerged as the No. 1 centre for the Kraken, which might even be better than was expected when he was selected in the expansion draft.

NEWARK, NJ - OCTOBER 04: New Jersey Devils center Nico Hischier (13) skates during the first period of the pre-season National Hockey League game between the New Jersey Devils and the Washington Capitals on October 4, 2021 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

#5 Nico Hischier was limited to 21 games last season and the New Jersey Devils captain started slowly this season, but he has been rounding into form. In the past 23 games, Hischier has 19 points (6 G, 13 A) and 43 shots on goal. Pavel Zacha has been his most consistent linemate this season, though Jesper Bratt, Tomas Tatar, and Jimmy Vesey have skated with Hischier, too. With Jack Hughes picking up the scoring pace, the Devils are starting to see what could happen as their top two centers start to reach their offensive potential.

#6 Goals don’t come easily for the Arizona Coyotes. Their 2.15 goals per 60 minutes ranks 31st, ahead of only the Montreal Canadiens (2.07), and yet Clayton Keller has really started to hit his stride offensively. In the past 18 games, Keller has 20 points (9 G, 11 A) and 61 shots on goal while averaging 20:49 of ice time per game. He is widely available in fantasy leagues and while the Coyotes are likely to shed some veteran talent before the trade deadline, Keller might just hang around and play big minutes on a bad team for the rest of the season.

#7 Point production has been inconsistent for Blake Coleman in his first season with the Calgary Flames, but the hard-driving winger does offer fantasy value in other categories, too. He had finished 2021 with one point in 14 games but in 2022 he has four points (2 G, 2 A) to go with 24 shots on goal and 15 hits in five games. As a player with multiple 20-goal and multiple 200-hit seasons, Coleman has sufficient fantasy upside.

#8 All of the schedule changes this season have resulted in a dramatic difference in terms of games played, so a team like the New York Islanders figures to offer more appeal going forward. The Islanders have played just 29 games, 10 fewer than the teams with the most games played. Mathew Barzal is the obvious target on the Islanders but, in deeper leagues, consider Oliver Wahlstrom, who has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 24 shots on goal in the past nine games, and Kieffer Bellows, who has eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past eight games.

#9 The Ottawa Senators are another team that has played fewer games, with game No. 30 coming Thursday night in Calgary. Drake Batherson and Brady Tkachuk are the more obvious targets for the Sens but consider winger Alex Formenton, whose role is increasing, and he has produced nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 24 shots on goal in his past 10 games.

#10 If the Islanders and Sens are teams to target because they are low on the games played list, it stands to reason that the team that have played more might come with a buyer beware tag. Those teams include the Anaheim Ducks, Vegas Golden Knights, and Tampa Bay Lightning. Beware Ducks veteran center Ryan Getzlaf, who had a productive start to the season but has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past 13 games.

#11 The Golden Knights appear to be a team on the rise but there is some reason to be cautious with them, too. Chandler Stephenson, for example, has 36 points (10 G, 26 A) in 38 games. That includes seven points (1 G, 6 A) and 12 shots on goal in the past 11 games but that is not the real reason to worry about Stephenson’s production the rest of the way. The bigger concern is what will happen to his ice time once Jack Eichel is ready to play next month. There may be other line shuffling opportunities for the Golden Knights but if Stephenson drops from the top line to make room for Eichel, that could obviously impact his offensive upside.

#12 Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brady Skjei is experiencing an offensive surge, putting up eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 21 shots on goal in his past six games. That shot rate is very encouraging and Skjei has a chance to have his best offensive output since scoring 39 points as a rookie in 2016-2017.

#13 Calgary Flames defenseman Oliver Kylington had a breakthrough early in the season and was a hot commodity in fantasy circles but is available in more leagues now. He has seven points (1 G, 6 A) in his past 13 games but 33 shots on goal in that time is a decent indicator that Kylington’s production should continue at a reasonably high level.

#14 When Trevor Moore scored 23 points (10 G, 13 A) in 56 games last season, that counted as the best season of his career. The Los Angeles Kings winger then opened this season with zero points in 11 games. Time has brought about new opportunity, though, and Moore is now skating with Phillip Danault and Viktor Arvidsson on the Kings’ second line and Moore has produced 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 23 shots on goal in the past seven games.

#15 Florida Panthers defenseman Radko Gudas has long been a fantasy sleeper, but it bears repeating that his hit totals can be a major factor. Since the beginning of December, Gudas is averaging 4.2 hits per game, tops among defensemen that have played at least 10 games in that span. (Edmonton’s Markus Niemelainen had 5.1 hits per game in seven games.)

#16 Other defensemen bringing the boom, with the most hits per game since the start of December, include Montreal’s Alexander Romanov (4.1), Vancouver’s Luke Schenn (4.0), Nashville’s Mark Borowiecki (4.0), Columbus’ Andrew Peeke (3.4), and Seattle’s Jeremy Lauzon (3.4).

#17 A prime fantasy category for defensemen is blocked shots and given its nature as a peripheral type of statistic, sometimes it’s an area which might offer some undervalued players. Chicago’s Connor Murphy (3.0 blocks per game), St. Louis’ Colton Parayko (2.9), Vegas’ Brayden McNabb (2.8), and Montreal’s David Savard (2.8) are the per-game blocked shot leaders since the start of December. Savard and Murphy are both averaging more than 2.4 hits per game in that span, too.

#18 Sometimes it can be hard to find goaltending value at this stage of the fantasy season. Usually, the safe and reliable options are taken but short-term value can come from backup goaltenders getting a chance due to injuries. Some of the best backups this season include Anaheim’s Anthony Stolarz (.929 SV%) and Minnesota’s Kaapo Kahkonen (.915 SV%) who have had some opportunity to play a bit more recently.

#19 Dallas’ Jake Oettinger was not a starter at the beginning of the season, but it sure appears that is the path the Stars have now chosen. Oettinger has earned it, with a .923 save percentage in 17 games.

#20 If there is a backup goaltender who might get a shot at the starting role it is Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner. It is possible that the Oilers make a trade for a more established veteran but, if not, 23-year-old Skinner has a .916 save percentage in 10 appearances for the Oilers this season in addition to a .925 save percentage in eight AHL games. Given the struggles of Mikko Koskinen and injury woes plaguing Mike Smith, Skinner might have some potential to steal the starting job. It is at least enough to make him worth monitoring.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

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Allen Key – St. Louis Blues 2018-19 Season Preview https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/allen-key-st-louis-blues-2018-19-season-preview/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/allen-key-st-louis-blues-2018-19-season-preview/#respond Sat, 15 Sep 2018 17:39:09 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=150437 Read More... from Allen Key – St. Louis Blues 2018-19 Season Preview

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REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – The St. Louis Blues managed to make the playoffs for six straight years.  They even scraped into the postseason in 2016-17 despite trading Kevin Shattenkirk to Washington at the deadline.  That run ended in 2017-18 though.

The Blues seemed on the right track through Feb. 9 with a 34-20-3 record, but they went 1-7-2 over their next 10 games to largely kill their playoff chances.  For the second straight year, the Blues decided to part with a significant piece of their puzzle at the deadline rather than risk losing the player as an unrestricted free agent.  This time it was Paul Stastny who left the team in the midst of the Blues’ late-season fall.  St. Louis ended with a 44-32-6 record, which put the Blues a mere point shy of the playoffs.

NO NEED TO PLAY THE BLUES – After finishing 24th in goals for last season, St. Louis was aggressive in adding offensive weapons over the summer.  The Blues signed Patrick Maroon to a one-year, $1.75 million contract, Tyler Bozak to a three-year, $15 million deal, and David Perron to a four-year, $16 million agreement over the summer.  Those three starters are offensive leaders, but they are all strong secondary scorers that will serve as strong support behind Brayden Schenn and Vladimir Tarasenko.

The Blues also acquired Ryan O'Reilly from the Buffalo Sabres, providing the Blues with an excellent second-line center and giving them the luxury of using Bozak to anchor the third line.  It’s also worth noting that O’Reilly won 60% of his faceoffs last season while Bozak won 53.6%, so the Blues have shifted from being a team that was fairly mediocre on the draw to one that’s dominant in that regard.

Another potential additional piece to the offensive puzzle is Robby Fabbri.  He was showing promise when knee problems put his career on hold.  The 22-year-old last played on Feb. 4, 2017, but he’s healthy going into training camp and could be another solid secondary scorer this season.

Jake Allen
Jake Allen

IN ALLEN THEY TRUST – Part of the reason for the Blues’ late season derailment was Jake Allen.  From Dec. 14 onward, Allen posted a 2.95 GAA and .900 save percentage in 32 games.  His struggles were partially mitigated by Carter Hutton’s strong play, but Hutton left the Blues as an unrestricted free agent so that he could pursue other opportunities to become a starter.

In Hutton’s place, the Blues have signed Chad Johnson, who posted an ugly 3.55 GAA and .891 save percentage in 36 games with Buffalo in 2017-18.  Johnson has had better seasons than that and has enough experience that he can potentially be trusted as a short-term starter option in a pinch should Allen get hurt or need some time off to reset during a cold stretch.  However, Johnson is not someone that you want as your primary option in net if you intend to make a serious push for the playoffs.

In other words, St. Louis needs Allen to be better this season than he was in 2017-18 or all the forward additions that the Blues made over the summer might be for naught.  Now to be fair, Allen bouncing back isn’t an unreasonable hope for the Blues to have.  Allen has certainly had better seasons than his 2017-18 campaign and while he didn’t offer details, Allen did make some adjustments over the summer, so perhaps those will bear fruit.  The 2017-18 campaign was just his second season as a full-time starter after all, so it’s not shocking that there have been some growing pains there.

If he does bounce back, then the Blues would seem to have all the pieces they need to at least be a competitive team this season.

OUTLOOK – Even with a strong season out of Allen though, the Blues are a step below the NHL’s elite squads.  Their offense still isn’t quite as strong, their defense has a big name in Alex Pietrangelo and a rising star Colton Parayko, but there are better blueline groups out there, and even if Allen bounces back, he’s unlikely to be mistaken for an elite goaltender.  In other words, St. Louis has a lot of things that there are decent in and the sum of those parts should be good enough for run to the playoffs.  Once they get there though, there are teams that will be able to outclass them across the board.

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Around the Boards: Fantasy Notes https://www.mckeenshockey.com/uncategorized/boards-fantasy-notes/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/uncategorized/boards-fantasy-notes/#respond Tue, 27 Oct 2015 15:59:46 +0000 http://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=96745 Read More... from Around the Boards: Fantasy Notes

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Paraphrasing Brian Burke, he once famously declared otherwise knowledgeable, experienced GM’s lose their minds at the trade deadline and free agency on July 1st. Making their greatest mistakes at the trade deadline, followed closely by free agency. In fantasy hockey, the trade deadline is also fraught with ill-advised deals, and a heightened level of desperation in search of a championship, but there is an argument to be made that the first ten games of the fantasy hockey season produce some interesting trade opportunities. Surprising results from a small sample of games can lead to some itchy GM fingers in the ‘irrational exuberance” of the excitement of another season.  

However, if you keep a relatively cool head it is a good time to make some trades based on early results. One of the time-tested measures for goal scorers in particular, is the number of shots they are producing, and their corresponding shooting percentage. A look at the top shot producers in the league to date uncovers some established scorers who should see the law of averages begin to work in their favour. There are some excellent sites doing some advanced work on shooting and scoring chances, but we will stick to a simpler approach for this article. Here are some suggestions to throw a buy-low offer at.

Taylor Hall on Edmonton leads the league with 39 shots, with a 7.7% shooting percentage. Not a big dip from the 8.9% he connected on last year, but down from his career shooting percentage of 11.0%.

Daniel Sedin is tied for second in the league with Tarasenko and Pacioretty with 36 shots and a meagre 5.6% shooting percentage. Well off his career average of 11.6%, but be aware he has not shot at that level since 2011-12. In the previous three seasons he has posted an 8.2% shooting percentage, as he has been producing around a twenty-goals pace. A long way from his heyday, and should temper any hope of a significant uplift.

NHL: OCT 10 Ducks at SharksBrent Burns leads all defenseman in shots with 35, but has only one goal, with a 2.9% shooting percentage. His past results get a little muddied by his time as a forward of the past few years, but has shot at 8.0% over the previous two seasons. Given the scoring opportunities created by his bomb from the point, it is very encouraging that he is firing away 4.4 shots a game versus 3.0 last season.

Tied for ninth with 32 shots each are Nazem Kadri, Rich Nash and Radim Vrbata with a 3.1% shooting percentage and a single goal to date. All of them are due to rebound.

Rich Nash owns a 12.4% career shooting percentage and potted 42 last season with a 13.8% success rate.

Kadri, has almost double his shot count from last season with 4.5 a game versus 2.4 last year (with a 10.2% shooting percentage).

Vrbata recently was re-united with the Sedins, and looks to be staying there. He has been firing well below his career average (9.4%), but the opportunities have been there and he is due.

Ryan Johansen (one goal in 24 games) and Nick Foligno (one goal in 30 shots) are both due. Johansen’s injury clouds things, but they are good buy-low targets. Look for a turnaround from a dismal start, with a kickstart form new coach Tortorella. Foligno may not hit the highs he did last year, but his stats will improve.

Other honourable mentions include Jakub Voracek with no goals on 28 shots. Claude Giroux sits with one assist to date, so they are likely to ignite together. Two games this week against an injured Buffalo team and one against New Jersey (playing well and not an easy out) could be the tonic.

In addition to some unexpected starts there was a slew of injury news to start the week in the NHL. Here are some key fantasy performers that will shake up line combinations and your line-up decisions.

The St. Louis Blues are early front-runners for the ‘Triage Award’ for injuries this season, having lost Patrik Berglund, Paul Stastny, Kevin Shattenkirk, Jaden Schwartz, and Robby Fabbri for periods. Schwartz being the lasts blow that will remove him from the line-up for three months. Opening opportunities for Ty Rattie and Dmitrij Jaskin to fill some much needed offensive holes. The 22-year old Rattie is off to a hot start with the Chicago Wolves with four goals and seven points in three games, in his third season with the Wolves. Here is an excerpt from his McKeen’s profile available for subscribers.

“Skilled sniper netted 17 goals in 36 games before his recall from Chicago Wolves .. scored 12 goals between his second and third assists of the season .. watched Blues postseason from press box and then was scoreless in three Calder Cup games .. crafty and slick in possession thanks to good athleticism, quick hands .. beats opponents with elusiveness and speed of execution .. flashy skater – light and nimble on his feet .. lateral agility is well above average – excels making diagonal cuts .. able to sustain speed through crossover sequences .. at times shy about driving into congested areas .. work-in-progress away from the puck .. scattered, unstructured, not a puck winner .. swerves out of coverage lanes – can be slow picking up defensive marks .. attempts low-percentage diagonal passes .. may not play regularly if he’s not in the top six”

Jori Lehtera becomes ever more central to the attack, centering the top line in the absence of Paul Stastny. He had been previously lining up with Schwartz. He skated 22:40 in the last St. Louis game, leads the team in P/60 with 3.59, and is familiar with Steen and Tarasenko. He skated 82% of his shifts in 2014-15 alongside Tarasenko. An opportunity for a sophomore breakout and significant increase of his 44-point rookie season.

NHL: SEP 29 Preseason - Blues at StarsColton Pareyko has seized the opportunity opened up by Shattenkirk’s injury. He has produced five points in the last six games, including two power play points in 2:34 of average ice time. He played over 22 minutes a game for the last two and shown poise and confidence, and not afraid to rush the puck. At 6’5” and 225 pounds he looks like he belongs at the pro level.

Buffalo has lost Evander Kane for four to six weeks with a torn MCL. The Sabres have recalled forward Tim Schaller from Rochester, where he had a goal and an assist in six games. Line juggling at practice saw Nick Delauriers taking his place, but a natural goal scorer will be hard to replace on the offensively challenged Sabres, having only scored 16 goals this season in eight games. I am not sure there is a silver lining for anyone’s fantasy upside in this situation. Sam Reinhart may be the biggest beneficiary, but he has already produced solid numbers with four points in eight games. 

Aleksandr Barkov is expected to be out of action for two to four weeks with a broken bone in his hand. Surgery is not required, limiting his time on the sidelines. It will affect his grip on his stick and something you will want to monitor on his return, before inserting him into your line-up. It is a blow to the Florida Panthers as he appeared to emerging as a breakout star, at both ends of the ice. Three goals and six points in seven games, picking up from the hot finish to last season alongside Jaromir Jagr and Jonathan Huberdeau. Exceptional two-way play for a third year pro.

Ryan Johansen listed as day to day, but undergoing tests. He has been plagued by low energy, and the team is insisting it is not related to his heart, after being hospitalized this summer for an accelerated heart rate according to the Columbus Dispatch.

He missed the Blue Jackets first win of the season under new coach John Totorella. I am not a big fan of Tortorella’s coaching style, but this may be a good fit in the short term to inject some energy into a moribund team. The personnel fits his style. If Johansen’s medical concerns turn out to be easily remedied, he could be an excellent buy-low target.

NHL: OCT 23 Red Wings at FlamesDetroit’s two free-agent acquisitions are now both on the shelf. Mike Green has been sidelined for two to three weeks with a shoulder injury, from a hit from Calgary’s Josh Jooris. Green had been struggling to adjust to life in Motor City, having been replaced prior to his injury on the first unit powerplay by Niklas Kronwall, as the only defenseman on the unit with four forwards, prior. He had only produced one point in seven games.

Brad Richards continues to undergo tests on his back, while not believed to be serious, the potential for continued problems this season should make you wary. Age combined with the always tricky back could make for continued difficulties.  

The NHL’s three stars were led by Evgeni Kuznetsov with a spectacular nine point week. He is no longer under any radar, but has looked sensational centering Alexander Ovechkin and Oshie. The shocking thing is he could actually had more goals from his chances. He provides two dangerous scoring units, with Niklas Backstrom coming back strongly from injury with seven points in three games to skate between newcomer Justin Williams and Johansen.

The Caps look like they could be a offensive powerhouse this season, with John Carlson emerging as a bonafide superstar on the back end, and a second-ranked power play, that features two excellent distributor from the half boards in Backstrom and Kuznetsov - with some deadly finishers in Ovechkin and Oshie to feed. 

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Fantasy Hockey Waiver Wire: Week One https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/fantasy-hockey-waiver-wire-week/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/fantasy-hockey-waiver-wire-week/#respond Mon, 19 Oct 2015 12:05:16 +0000 http://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=96038 Read More... from Fantasy Hockey Waiver Wire: Week One

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The waiver wire return for the 2015-16 season and with the first week of NHL games complete some players are already injured, some failed to make the team, and some are wetting the bed and need to be replaced. The Waiver wire in many fantasy leagues offers the easiest and sometimes best option to upgrade some dead weight on your roster. One trend to be wary of is rookies who have junior eligibility remaining like Daniel Sprong with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Sprong has made the Pens roster to start the season but is not eligible to play in the AHL. If Pittsburgh decide he is not ready he will go back to junior and be gone for the season.

1. Brandon Sutter - Vancouver Canucks, Right Wing/Centre 56% Owned

The 26 year old Sutter is now on his third team and has 500 career games played. Throughout his career he has typically been a third line centre but with Vancouver he has been seeing shifts on the top line with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Sutter has not looked out of place on the top line and if he can hold that spot for the season he is poised to have a career year. He is a point per game player after five games this season and has a shooting percentage of 13% which is well above his career average suggesting he can sustain fantasy relevance and a spot on a top line. Sutter is entering his prime years and has proven to be a durable player missing only three games in the past two seasons.

2. Brandon Pirri – Florida Panthers, Left Wing/Right Wing 46% Owned

Limited to just 49 games last season Pirri had a breakout 22 goal performance last season. Unfortunately, he only managed to add two assists to his point totals. This year, he has been playing on Florida’s second line with Nick Bjugstad and Reilly Smith and is producing; a goal and three assists in five games. His shooting percentage is well below career average at 7.7% which suggests that the goals are coming. His cap hit is also very attractive at $925k

NHL: MAR 21 Sharks at Canadiens3. Jeff Petry – Montreal Canadiens, Defence 32% owned

After the Habs rescued Petry from Edmonton at a deadline deal last season, he instantly rewarded them with seven points in 19 games and played a top four role. The Habs in turn rewarded Petry with a lucrative new contract. Saddled with a $5.5 million cap hit, Petry is still providing the Habs with good value as a second pairing defender and is seeing time on both special team units and both his points have come with the man advantage. If you can afford him, or are not in a capped league and need a defenceman, you will be hard pressed to find a better option on the waiver wire than Petry.

4. Tobias Rieder – Arizona Coyotes, Left Wing 37% owned

After a successful rookie season in the fantasy hockey desert, Rieder is off to a hot start in his sophomore season playing on the second line with Martin Hanzal and Max Domi. Rieder has found some early production with five points in five games as the Coyotes are off to a hot start. It is unlikely either the Coyotes or Rieder will maintain this pace, so he represents a good short term solution while his line is hot.

5. Jimmy Hayes – Boston Bruins, Right Wing 36% owned

Hayes only has points in one of his five games so far this season, but it was a four point night! Hayes is playing on a young but talented line with Ryan Spooner and Brett Connolly on the third line and should not draw the opposition’s better defensive line. Hayes has struggled with consistency but the 25 year old has a new contract and the faith of Bruins management as he enters his prime. He is a breakout candidate.

6. Colton Parayko – St. Louis Blues, Defence 40% owned

Super sleeper Colton Parayko has only managed to post two goals (both in the same game) but is one of the best kept secrets in the NHL. The Blues scouts did a great job finding Parayko and keeping him under the radar as he has come from nowhere. Don’t sleep on the player who is the early favorite to be this years John Klingberg as he has been drawing rave reviews since training camp.

7. Ben Hutton – Vancouver Canucks, Defence 31% owned

Speaking of super sleeper players to come from nowhere, Huton impressed Canucks management so much at training camp he forced himself onto the roster despite being minor eligible. The move forced the Canucks to expose Frank Corrado to waivers and he was claimed by Toronto. Corrado is a highly regarded prospect so it speaks volumes to how high the Canucks are on Hutton.  

All ownership numbers are based on Fantrax leagues

 

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