Darren Raddysh – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – TOP 20 FANTASY POINTS – A Capitals rookie finding his form, the Avalanche captain back on track, Luke Evangelista, Matvei Michkov, Vladislav Gavrikov, and so much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 05 Dec 2025 19:43:55 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, a Capitals rookie finding his form, the Avalanche captain back on track, Luke Evangelista, Matvei Michkov, Vladislav Gavrikov, and so much more!

#1 After scoring 49 points (30 G, 19 A) in 37 games for Boston College as a sophomore last season, Ryan Leonard was signed and joined the Capitals late in the season but managed just one goal in nine regular-season games before contributing one assist in eight playoff contests. Nevertheless, the eighth pick in the 2023 Draft was considered a possible Calder Trophy candidate entering the season. He opened the season with eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 37 shots on goal while averaging 13:54 of ice time in 19 games, which was not going to keep him in the Calder Trophy race. He has picked up the pace more recently, however, tallying 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 23 shots on goal while playing 15:20 per game in his past nine games. He is getting first unit power play time, which certainly raises his offensive ceiling.

#2 When Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog returned to action during last season’s playoffs, it was a feel-good story since it was his first NHL action since 2022, but it was also fair to wonder how much he could contribute this season as he is now 33 and coming back from a serious injury. He started this season slowly, with zero goals, four assists, and 22 shots on goal through 16 games. He has found his footing since then, though, putting up 10 points (5 G, 5 A) with 26 shots on goal in his past 11 games. He is skating with Brock Nelson and Ross Colton on Colorado’s second line and is getting top power play time, so Landeskog may be a good bet to produce at a high level for the rest of the season.

#3 As the Nashville Predators look for reasons to be optimistic, right winger Luke Evangelista is starting to become a factor offensively. In his past six games, Evangelista has eight points (2 G, 6 A) and a dozen shots on goal while averaging 17:39 of ice time per game. He had a career-high 39 points (16 G, 23 A) in 2023-2024, but with 18 points (4 G, 14 A) in 26 games this season, he’s on pace to soar past that total. Evangelista is skating on Nashville’s top line, with veterans Ryan O’Reilly and Steven Stamkos.

#4 After scoring 63 points (26 G, 37 A) in 80 games and finishing fourth in Calder Trophy voting last season, Philadelphia Flyers winger Matvei Michkov entered his second season with lofty expectations. It didn’t start out very well, as head coach Rick Tocchet acknowledged Michkov’s poor physical conditioning early in the season when he had just three points (1 G, 2 A) and 17 shots on goal in his first nine games. The tide may be turning for him, though, as Michkov has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past five games.

#5 A big free agent addition in the offseason for the New York Rangers, defenceman Vladislav Gavrikov is not necessarily known as a big point producer, with 33 points in 2021-2022, when he played for Columbus, counting as his career high, but he has been cooking lately. In his past seven games, Gavrikov has seven points (4 G, 3 A), seven shots on goal, and is averaging 25:35 of ice time per game. With Adam Fox injured, the Blueshirts will need Gavrikov to fill a big role at the top of their defensive depth chart.

#6 Buffalo Sabres winger Josh Doan put up 19 points (7 G, 12 A) with 88 shots on goal in 51 games as a rookie for Utah last season but has taken on a more substantial role with the Sabres in 2025-2026. In his past seven games, Doan has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 20 shots on goal and while, like many Sabres wingers, he moves around the lineup, he is getting time on PP1. Six of Doan’s 19 points (8 G, 11 A) in 27 games this season have come via the man advantage.

#7 In his prime, Dallas Stars captain Jamie Benn was a fantasy hockey star, producing points and hits like few others. He’s now 36 and plays a supporting role in Dallas, but he’s been awfully effective even with limited ice time. Benn suffered a collapsed lung in the preseason, so he was not ready to play at the start of this season, but in nine games, he has eight points (3 G, 5 A) with 11 shots on goal while playing just 12:50 per game. That ice time is starting to tick up – 15:40 per game in the past three – and with Tyler Seguin out with a torn ACL, there may be a greater need for Benn to fill a role in Dallas’ top six, at least until Matt Duchene is healthy.

#8 With the Nashville Predators showing signs of life, maybe centre Ryan O’Reilly won’t hear his name in trade rumours quite so often. The 34-year-old pivot is a valuable player and one that contenders seek out, but he has been doing his part to help the Preds. In his past five games, O’Reilly has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and six shots on goal. That shot rate is obviously too low, but O‘Reilly is averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game in that stretch.

#9 Centre Elias Lindholm may not be exactly what the Boston Bruins hoped he would be when they signed him as a free agent in the summer of 2024, but he has also picked up seven assists in his past four games, giving him 16 points (4 G, 12 A) in 19 games this season. It’s not all gold for Lindholm right now, though, as he’s rocking a 44.0 percent Corsi percentage and, for a player with a strong two-way reputation, that’s not good enough.

#10 A solid secondary scoring option for the Toronto Maple Leafs, left winger Bobby McMann has delivered six points (3 G, 3 A) with seven shots on goal in his past three games. McMann scored 20 goal and 34 points last season and, with eight goals and 14 points in 27 games this season, he’s on pace for more. He does move around the lineup and there is a ceiling on his offensive production because he doesn’t always have a reliable power play role.

#11 Former Maple Leafs prospect Alex Steeves is starting to make his mark for the Boston Bruins. Steeves, a 25-year-old rookie, started the season in the AHL with has earned chance with the Bruins and is making the most of it. In his past five games, Steeves has six points (5 G, 1 A) with 10 shots on goal while averaging 15:36 of ice time per game. With David Pastrnak injured, Steeves is skating on Boston’s top line with Lindholm and Morgan Geekie and getting second unit power play time.

#12 Florida Panthers left winger A.J. Greer contributed 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in 81 games last season, skating on the Panthers’ fourth line. He also had a career-high 130 penalty minutes, which fit with his style of play. While his style has not changed, injuries in Florida have provided Greer with more opportunities and he is starting to take advantage of them. In his past five games, Greer has averaged 15:47 of ice time per game while producing five points (2 G, 3 A) with 15 shots on goal. He has been skating on a line with Sam Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe and is showing that he may be able to legitimately fit in the top nine.

#13 Toronto Maple Leafs veteran Max Domi had a miserable start to this season, with six points (3 G, 3 A) and 36 shots on goal in his first 23 games. He has, however, picked up five assists in the past three games and is skating at right wing on the top line with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies. So long as he’s in that spot, there is a chance for Domi to salvage this campaign.

#14 Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Darren Raddysh has turned into an offensive force on the blueline since injuries thrust him into a big role, including as the quarterback on PP1. In his past 10 games, Raddysh has averaged more than 24 minutes per game, putting up 15 points (2 G, 13 A) with 25 shots on goal. Not bad for a guy who couldn’t count on a regular spot in the lineup before injuries decimated the Tampa Bay blueline.

#15 Vancouver Canucks superstar defenceman Quinn Hughes has slumped recently, with a modest two points (1 G, 1 A) in his past six games, a stretch in which the Canucks have managed just one win. Hughes had 13 assists in the previous six games, so there is some regression in real time happening here, and there is no reason to move Hughes unless there is a long-term reason that his production should stay down. As of now, it’s probably wise to stay invested in one of four defencemen in the league scoring at least a point per game. (Cale Makar, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Zach Werenski are the others.)

#16 Having won back-to-back Vezina Trophies as the league’s top goaltender, an injury to Winnipeg Jets netminder Connor Hellebuyck is naturally a big deal. Even if his numbers aren’t quite as strong this season, it’s not like a .913 save percentage in 14 starts was a problem for the Jets, but now Hellebuyck is out for four-to-six weeks after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery. That leaves journeyman Eric Comrie to fill the starter’s role in Hellebuyck’s absence, and Comrie has a .897 save percentage in 11 starts.

#17 The Anaheim Ducks are in a tough goaltending spot, as Lukas Dostal is out with an upper-body injury for two-to-three weeks, and Petr Mrazek is facing a similar timeline with a lower-body injury, leaving Ville Husso as the de facto starter for the Ducks. Husso has appeared in four games this season, posting a .859 save percentage, which is obviously not good enough, but he does have a .901 save percentage for his career, so there is some reason to hope that he can be an adequate option for the next few weeks.

#18 Veteran New York Islanders right winger Kyle Palmieri suffered a torn ACL, ending his season. On the play that it occurred, Palmieri even managed to get an assist, stealing the puck from Flyers defenceman Emil Andrae on his way to the bench, giving it to Jonathan Drouin, who set up Emil Heineman for a goal. Palmieri finished his season with 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 25 games and with Palmieri out, rookie Max Shabanov moves up to the Islanders’ top line. Shabanov has nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 24 shots on goal through his first 16 NHL games.

#19 Philadelphia Flyers left winger Tyson Foerster will be out for two to three months with an upper-body injury, halting his rising momentum. In his last seven games before he was injured, Foerster scored six goals and had 15 shots on goal. His absence does create more room in the Flyers’ top six for winger Owen Tippett, who is heating up with 12 points (4 G, 8 A) and 24 shots on goal in his past 10 games.

#20 St. Louis Blues rookie right winger Jimmy Snuggerud is going to be re-evaluated in six weeks after suffering a broken wrist. Prior to injury, he had been slumping, managing zero points and nine shots on goal in his last seven games. Aleksanteri Kaskimaki, a third-round pick in 2022, has been called up to the Blues and is getting a shot in their top nine after he managed seven points (3 G, 4 A) in 16 AHL games.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – A Golden Knights rookie making an instant impact, Cirelli and McMichael take on more responsibility, Coronato is back in fine form, and so much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 29 Nov 2025 14:04:10 +0000

CHICAGO, IL - NOVEMBER 18: Matt Coronato #27 of the Calgary Flames controls the puck during the first period against the Chicago Blackhawks on November 18, 2025 at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, a Golden Knights rookie has made an instant impact, Anthony Cirelli and Connor McMichael take on more responsibility, Matt Coronato is back in fine form, and so much more!

#1 Undrafted out of the Ontario Hockey League, right winger Braeden Bowman made steady improvement throughout his junior career and was signed by the Vegas Golden Knights. As a rookie pro, he put up 36 points (14 G, 22 A) in 68 AHL games last season and he started this season in Henderson of the AHL, earning a promotion to Vegas after putting up 12 points (7 G, 5 A) in 12 games. In his first nine games with the Golden Knights, Bowman has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal. He has found a spot on right wing on Vegas’ top line, alongside Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev, as well as getting second unit power play time.

#2 With Brayden Point injured recently, Anthony Cirelli has taken on a bigger offensive role for the Tampa Bay Lightning, but he has been a consistent offensive contributor for a while. In his past 13 games, Cirelli has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 18 shots on goal. That’s not the most inspiring shot volume, and he’s not going to keep scoring on 30 percent of his shots on goal, but when Cirelli is skating between Brandon Hagel and Nikita Kucherov, he’s going to be an offensive threat.

#3 Washington Capitals centre Pierre-Luc Dubois is likely out until March due to abdominal surgery, so Connor McMichael is now much more important to the Capitals’ attack. In his past eight games, McMichael has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 26 shots on goal. He is skating between rookie Ryan Leonard and Brandon Duhaime during five-on-five play while getting second unit power play time, and McMichael played a season-high 21:04 on Wednesday against Winnipeg. After scoring 26 goals and 57 points last season, McMichael will quite reasonably face higher expectations, especially with more ice time going his way.

#4 A healthy scratch earlier in the season, Calgary Flames right winger Matt Coronato has found his way back to being a consistent offensive threat. In his past seven games, Coronato has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 24 shots on goal. That shot rate (3.43 per game) is the kind that can sustain consistent offensive production. Coronato is on the Flames’ top power play unit and skating with Morgan Frost and Jonathan Huberdeau at even strength.

#5 Known for being able to pull the trigger quickly, Philadelphia Flyers winger Owen Tippett has only scored one goal in his past 17 games, but he has become a playmaker more recently, accumulating seven assists in his past seven games. Tippett is skating with Christian Dvorak and Trevor Zegras at even strength, but he is not generating shots like he did a couple of years ago, when he finished with a career-high 289 shots on goal in 78 games (3.71 per game).

#6 After missing nearly three weeks due to illness, Buffalo Sabres left winger Jason Zucker has provided an immediate boost to the Sabres with six points (2 G, 4 A) and 10 shots on goal in the past four games. The veteran winger is skating on a line with Ryan McLeod and Jack Quinn at evens while getting first-unit power play time. McLeod has five points (1 G, 4 A) in four games since Zucker returned and Quinn has five points (3 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal in those four games.

#7 Minnesota Wild right winger Mats Zuccarello was injured at the start of the season, as a lower-body injury kept him out of the lineup until early November. In three weeks since returning, the 38-year-old veteran has nine points (1 G, 8 A) and 16 shots on goal in nine games. He’s playing on the top line with Kirill Kaprizov and rookie Danila Yurov and getting first-unit power play time, so Zuccarello is going to get opportunities so long as he can remain healthy.

#8 On a Buffalo Sabres defense that has some players known for their offensive acumen, Mattias Samuelsson has become a surprising contributor. He doesn’t have a regular role on the power play and yet still has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in his past seven games. He is averaging more than 23 minutes of ice time per game in that span, so he’s been getting lots of time, even if not on the power play, but he is far more offensive this season than ever before, producing 12 points (5 G, 7 A) in 22 games after scoring a career-high 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 62 games last season.

#9 Back in the Red Wings lineup after missing time with an upper-body injury, Patrick Kane continues to put up points. The 37-year-old playmaker has eight points (1 G, 7 A) and 28 shots on goal in his past nine games and is skating with rookie Nate Danielson and Andrew Copp at evens while, naturally, getting first-unit power play time. Kane is turning into more of a power-play specialist, with seven of his 13 points this season coming via the man advantage.

#10 Vancouver Canucks defenceman Filip Hronek has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past six contests and the right-shot defender is in an interesting situation. He’s usually partnered with Quinn Hughes, one of the most dynamic defencemen in the league, so that tends to keep the puck moving in the right direction, but if trade rumours prove true and Hughes moves on, Hronek would presumably be the leading candidate for more time on the first power play unit. Ultimately, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about a defenceman playing 24 minutes per game who has 16 points (3 G, 13 A) to go with 37 hits and 46 blocked shots in 25 games this season.

#11 Injuries have decimated the Tampa Bay Lightning blueline, notably taking out Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, and that has opened the door for Darren Raddysh to get more regular playing time. The way he has been producing offensively, Raddysh is proving his value. In his past seven games, Raddysh has piled up 10 points (2 G, 8 A) and 16 shots on goal while playing more than 23 minutes per game. Certainly, once the Lightning get healthier on the blueline, that will diminish Raddysh’s value, but right now, he is massively productive.

#12 When Florida Panthers centre Sam Bennett won the Conn Smythe Trophy as MVP for last season’s playoffs, scoring 15 goals and 22 points in 23 games, it should have been a cautionary tale heading into the 2025-2026 season because Playoff Sam Bennett has proven to be more reliable than Regular Season Sam Bennett. With Aleksander Barkov out, the Panthers need Bennett to contribute offensively, and he managed just five points (3 G, 2 A) and 34 shots on goal through his first 18 games. In the past six games, though, Bennett has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 19 shots on goal. He seems to have something good going with linemates Carter Verhaeghe and A.J. Greer.

#13 Philadelphia Flyers left winger Tyson Foerster has climbed into a first-line role, skating on a line with Noah Cates and Travis Konecny, and Foerster has delivered five goals and 11 shots on goal in his past five games. Foerster has two 20-goal seasons to his credit, scoring a career-high 25 last season, but he is a threat to score even more this season as the quality and quantity of his ice time increase.

#14 Former Flyers winger, now with the Calgary Flames, Joel Farabee also has five goals and an assist, with 15 shots on goal in his past five games, emerging from a slump that saw him produce just five points (2 G, 3 A) in his previous 18 games. He is on a line with Nazem Kadri and Yegor Sharangovich at evens but he doesn’t have a regular power play role, so maybe take a wait-and-see approach to see if Farabee’s offensive surge has more staying power.

#15 An underrated fantasy performer on defence is Carolina Hurricanes blueliner Sean Walker. While he has a modest eight points (4 G, 4 A) in 24 games, Walker has contributed seven of those points with 32 shots on goal while averaging more than 23 minutes of ice time per game in his past 13 games. He gets second-unit power play time, though seven of his eight points have come at even strength, and he has 34 blocks and 42 hits in 24 games, so fantasy managers can appreciate Walker’s contributions beyond his point totals.

#16 Sometimes playing on a loaded roster has its challenges and Colorado Avalanche forward Ross Colton is a prime example of a player who can produce more if given the opportunity. He has shown in the past that he can elevate his production with a bigger role and when Valeri Nichushkin was injured recently, Colton stepped up his game. In seven games since Nichushkin’s injury, Colton has four points (3 G, 1 A) and 23 shots on goal, all while playing nearly 16 minutes per game. Before that, he was averaging just 13:32 of ice time per game.

#17 Columbus Blue Jackets centre Adam Fantilli started the season slowly, but has turned it on lately, with 11 points (7 G, 4 A) and 36 shots on goal in his past 12 games, while playing more than 20 minutes per game, a jump of nearly four minutes per game over the first 13 games of the season when he only managed six points (2 G, 4 A). Was there a good reason for decreasing the ice time of the 21-year-old rising star at the start of the season? It certainly appears to make more sense to have Fantilli at the top of the depth chart, where he’s getting first unit power play time and skating with Dmitri Voronkov and Kent Johnson at even strength.

#18 The month of November has been tough for New Jersey Devils blueliner Dougie Hamilton, who has just one assist in nine games, though he does have 20 shots on goal in that span, so that’s a little encouraging. Hamilton did suffer an injury early in the month, so perhaps that’s been affecting him, or maybe it’s just a run of bad luck, but with Jack Hughes out of the lineup, it’s worth keeping an eye on Devils players to see how their production will fare without their most dynamic performer.

#19 Pittsburgh Penguins defenceman Erik Karlsson has just three assists and 13 shots on goal in his past eight games, which is certainly not helping fantasy managers, but he is delivering quality all-around results for the Penguins, with a 51.1 percent Corsi and the Penguins outscoring opponents 17-10 with Karlsson on the ice during five-on-five play. Surely the Penguins wouldn’t mind more production from Karlsson, but it’s not a priority for a team that has been surprisingly competitive.

#20 As the Edmonton Oilers try to get their season on track, certainly goaltending has been a major issue, but they are also hoping for Zach Hyman to return to form. He was still recovering from wrist surgery at the start of the season and has played in six games, chipping in a couple of assists with a dozen shots on goal. Hyman is getting prime ice time, skating on a line with Connor McDavid and rookie Matthew Savoie at evens while also holding down a regular spot on PP1. The Oilers aren’t easing him into action, either, as Hyman is playing 20:28 per game, which would be a career high.

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Team Preview

Sat, 20 Sep 2025 20:05:52 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 04: Tampa Bay Lightning Left Wing Jake Guentzel (59) skates in warm ups before a Los Angeles Kings game versus the Tampa Bay Lightning on January 4th, 2025, at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire)

The Lightning finished in second place in the Atlantic Division with 102 points (47-27-8). They haven’t won the division since the 2018-2019 season, incidentally. They lost in five games to the Florida Panthers in the first round of the playoffs, a sudden and quick end to their season. The Lightning were better than average in terms of puck possession numbers, ranking ninth in both Corsi percentage (51.5) and expected goals percentage (51.8). Not surprisingly, the Lightning had a strong power play, ranking seventh with 8.61 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, and they ranked 11th with 6.37 goals against per 60 minutes during four-on-five play. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy was in fine form, appearing in a league-leading 63 games and finishing second in Vezina Trophy voting, so the Lightning looked like they could be dangerous in the postseason, but injuries may have contributed to their rapid first-round ouster.

What’s Changed?

The Lightning appear relatively comfortable with the roster with which they ended the 2024-2025 season. They acquired Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand from Seattle at the trade deadline, but the only notable forward addition this summer was Pontus Holmberg, the former Toronto Maple Leaf. Defenceman Nicklaus Perbix signed as a free agent with the Nashville Predators, and checking centre Luke Glendening remains unsigned, but the vast majority of last season’s team returns for the Lightning in 2025-2026.

What would success look like?

As a team that has made three appearances in the Stanley Cup Final in the past six seasons, winning twice, the Lightning still expect to compete for the championship, but they also haven’t made it out of the first round in the past three seasons, so that is probably the more reasonable starting point. Defeating the Florida Panthers, exacting some revenge on their in-state rival, would be a nice touch, too, but the Lightning surely look at the elite talent on their roster – some nearing the decline phase of their careers – and recognize that the time to win is now.

What could go wrong?

The Lightning’s moves last season bolstered depth throughout the lineup, to the point that they can probably withstand some injuries without it completely destroying the team. The area in which the Lightning have more risk is goaltending, where Vasilevskiy is great, but if anything should happen to him, especially a long-term injury, backup Jonas Johansson does not have a track record that inspires a great deal of confidence. Could that be enough to knock the Lightning right out of the playoff picture? The injuries would probably have to be major, but if the Lightning are going to get back to contending for the Stanley Cup, a strong finish in the regular season wouldn’t hurt their case.

Top Breakout Candidate

Although 6-foot-4 forward Conor Geekie managed a modest 14 points (8 G, 6 A) in 52 games as a rookie last season, he did produce 20 points (11 G, 9 A) in 23 AHL games, and the opportunity to play in a scoring role at that level should set him up for bigger and better things in his second NHL season. Geekie has a chance to secure a spot in Tampa Bay’s top nine, along with some second unit power play time, and if he makes the most of that and stays healthy, he could triple last season’s totals.

FORWARDS

Nikita Kucherov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	35	80	115	1.44

A brilliant offensive performer who is exceptional in his ability to deceive opponents, from using his eyes to look off defenders to create passing lanes to his patented fake shot shootout move, he is operating on an elite tier when it comes to outright tricking his opponents. Since 2017-2018, Kucherov has averaged 1.47 points per game, which ranks second behind only Connor McDavid (1.60). Kucherov has reached 100 points or more five times in his career, winning the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s top scorer in each of the past two seasons. While Kucherov is hardly revered for his defensive play, his outstanding production has still resulted in him accruing a five-on-five goal differential of +211 over the course of his career. Last season alone, his five-on-five goal differential was +33. On top of his dominance at even-strength, Kucherov terrorizes opponents on the power play. In the past three seasons he has recorded 149 power play points, which is more than anyone else. Kucherov also plays with a feisty edge. It’s not like he racks up huge penalty minute totals but every so often he is prepared to send a message that he is not to be messed with. Heading into the 2025-2026 season, Kucherov is as good a bet as any to lead the league in scoring as he seeks his third straight Art Ross. It is entirely reasonable to expect him to produce 35 goals and 120 points.

Brayden Point

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	41	46	87	1.09

There are benefits to spending most of one’s time on a line with Nikita Kucherov and Point has shown that by scoring 139 goals across the past three seasons, which ranks fourth in the league behind David Pastrnak (151), Leon Draisaitl (145), and Auston Matthews (142). In those three seasons, Point has scored on 21.4 percent of his shots and when that happens in a single season, the knee-jerk response is to say that those numbers are bound to regress because that’s an unsustainable shooting percentage over the long haul. But once it reaches a sample size of three seasons, maybe Point is just getting such high-quality chances that the high shooting percentage is to be expected. Andrei Kuzmenko and Leon Draisaitl are the only other NHL players scoring on more than 20 percent of their shots over the past three seasons. As great as Point’s production is, it bears noting that he was not at break-even in terms of shot attempts during five-on-five play, so he was more dependent on lofty percentages than most players. Nevertheless, if the percentages are going to be running high for Point, because they have been, then he should still be a very productive player in 2025-2026. Something along the lines of 40-plus goals and 85-90 points, including around 30 points on the power play, would be consistent with Point’s recent production.

Jake Guentzel

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	36	42	78	1.00

After a great run in Pittsburgh, playing a lot with Sidney Crosby, and a short stint in Carolina where he was very productive, Guentzel landed in Tampa Bay last season and delivered a career-high 41 goals in his first season for the Lightning. He scored a league-leading 17 power play goals, finishing one ahead of Brayden Point and Leon Draisaitl. Guentzel was overlooked to some degree early in his career, as his production was dismissed as a result of playing with an elite center like Crosby, but Guentzel has shown that he can produce without Crosby, too, that he is a legitimate first line scoring winger in his own right. What is somewhat surprising about this development is that Guentzel does not have an exceptional physical trait. He’s a good puck-handler and passer, can shoot it and is a decent skater, but none of those skills identify him as a standout performer. What does set him apart is that he thinks the game at a high level, consistently putting himself in the right position to make plays and create chances offensively. Since 2018-2019, Guentzel has produced 490 points (230 G, 260 A) in 478 games, his 1.03 points per game ranking 22nd in the league over that time frame. A competitive play-driving winger, Guentzel has helped his team to outscore opponents by double digits during five-on-five play in six of his past seven seasons. Skating on a line with Point and Kucherov certainly gives him ample opportunity to remain a premier scoring winger, so 35 goals and 75-80 points during the 2025-2026 season is well within his reach.

Brandon Hagel

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	30	46	76	0.93

A fantastic story of perseverance, from being an unsigned sixth-round pick of the Buffalo Sabres who battled his way into the league with the Chicago Blackhawks, Hagel has hit his stride in Tampa Bay and improves year after year. In 2024-2025, he set career highs with 35 goals, 55 assists, and 90 points. Even more impressively, Hagel did not pad his numbers with outrageous power play production and his 72 even-strength points ranked fifth in the NHL, falling between Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. Hagel is an excellent skater who plays with great tenacity, using his speed to create chances in transition and his fearlessness to go to the dirty areas in order to score goals. He keeps his stick readily available for tips, rebounds, and other second-chance opportunities, making him an excellent complement to even more skilled linemates. Hagel’s ability to play at an elite level was recognized by Hockey Canada when he was named to Team Canada for the Four Nations Face-Off and made his presence known when he dropped the gloves with Matthew Tkachuk of Team USA off the opening face-off in their rivalry matchup during the round robin of that tournament. Hagel isn’t known as a fighter, but he is known as a ferocious competitor. During the 2025-2026 season, he figures to give the Lightning 30 goals and 75-80 points. He’s shown that he can exceed those numbers but had a career-high on-ice shooting percentage (11.1) to do it last season.

Anthony Cirelli

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	25	30	55	0.71

A premier checking center who was a finalist for the Selke Trophy last season, Cirelli also had career highs with 27 goals, 32 assists, and 59 points. He has finished in the top five of Selke Trophy voting three times in the past six seasons and was a play-driving force last season, with a 55.0 percent Corsi even though he started just 42.4 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone. For a standout checking center, Cirelli is oddly mediocre in the face-off circle. Last season, he took 1,292 draws and won two more than he lost, marking only the third time in his career that he was above 50 percent on faceoffs. As the Lightning have improved their team depth, Cirelli has quality linemates on Tampa Bay’s second line. Last season, his most common linemate, by far, was Brandon Hagel, followed by Nikita Kucherov, Nick Paul, and Conor Geekie. So long as he still has Hagel on his wing, Cirelli should be able to accommodate any number of options on the other wing, whether that’s Paul, Geekie, Gage Goncalves, Oliver Bjorkstrand, or Yanni Gourde. Cirelli should contend for the Selke Trophy again in 2025-2026 while putting up at least 20 goals and 50 points.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	20	27	47	0.59

An often-underrated winger who the Lighting acquired from the Seattle Kraken at the trade deadline, Bjorkstrand suffered a lower-body injury late in the season and missed Tampa Bay’s first-round playoff loss to Florida. Bjorkstrand has scored at least 20 goals in six of the past seven seasons, with the lone exception coming during the shortened 2020-2021 season, when he scored 18 goals in 56 games. He is an excellent complementary player who has established himself as a play driver, with his line consistently outshooting the opposition and, often, doing so more often than his teammates. In his initial 18-game stint with the Lightning, Bjorkstrand was rocking a 56 percent Corsi, and his team outscored opponents 9-5 with him on the ice during five-on-five play. Having spent his career in Columbus and Seattle before joining the Lightning, Bjorkstrand is looking at a more competitive opportunity in Tampa Bay, a chance to play in the middle six on a team that has legitimate hopes of contending, and part of the reason for that is the improved depth that the Lightning acquired when they brought Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde in from Seattle. A fair expectation for 2025-2026 would be for Bjorkstand to contribute 20 goals and 45-50 points while consistently pushing play in the right direction.

Yanni Gourde

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	10	25	35	0.45

The feisty yet diminutive center has returned to Tampa Bay, the home of his greatest professional success as he was part of the Lightning’s two Stanley Cup wins in 2020 and 2021 before he joined the expansion Seattle Kraken. Gourde certainly has offensive capability – he is a three-time 20-goal scorer who has seen his production drop off in the past couple of seasons, finishing with 64 points (18 G, 46 A) in 137 games over the past two seasons. Even after rejoining the Lightning last season, Gourde did contribute 14 points in 21 games, but that included just one goal, so it’s fair to wonder what the 33-year-old has left in the tank. What works in Gourde’s favor is that Lightning head coach Jon Cooper is very familiar with him and Gourde has shown that he can move around the lineup, playing a lot at center, but shifting to wing as well. That will allow the Lightning to better mix and match in their attempts to find their best line combinations. There is the possibility that Gourde could be slotted in as a fourth line center in Tampa Bay, which would limit his offensive appeal, but he can still be expected to contribute 10 goals and 35 points during the 2025-2026 season.

Nick Paul

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	20	20	40	0.51

A versatile power forward who can play center or wing and move up and down the lineup, Paul has found a great fit in Tampa Bay since he was acquired from Ottawa during the 2021-2022 season. Paul has had back-to-back seasons with more than 20 goals and 40 points – the first two seasons in his career that he has crossed those thresholds. While Paul’s offensive breakthrough in 2023-2024 was partially due to his emergence on the power play, that was not so much the case in 2024-2025, when he scored 20 of his 22 goals at even strength. Those 20 even-strength goals should not be dismissed easily, as it tied for 57th in the league with the likes of Brock Nelson, Roope Hintz, Mitch Marner, and Clayton Keller. This is not to suggest that Paul is in their class as an offensive contributor, because he isn’t, but if he is putting up that kind of production at even strength as a 6-foot-4, 230-pound forward who can provide a more physical presence if that’s what is needed. Paul uses that size well, goes hard to the net and can fire the puck, so he should comfortably hold a spot in Tampa Bay’s middle six, but it is probably fair to expect that he might move around a bit as the Lightning look for the best combinations. While there may be a limit to what Paul is going to provide offensively, the past couple of seasons have established that he can deliver 20 goals and 40 points, so that is what Tampa Bay should expect in 2025-2026.

DEFENCE

Victor Hedman

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	53	65	0.83

A future Hall of Famer patrolling the Lightning blueline, Hedman delivered another excellent performance in 2024-2025, tallying 66 points (15 G, 51 A) and finishing fifth in Norris Trophy voting. It is the seventh time in his career that he has finished in the top five, and he also has a sixth and a seventh-place finish for good measure. He had slumped a couple of years ago, and there were some questions about whether he could still perform at an elite level, but he has dismissed those concerns with his outstanding play over the past two seasons. Hedman is a fixture on the Lightning power play and has registered 180 power play points since 2018-2019, ranking first among NHL defenceman, though, to be fair, he is just one point ahead of Cale Makar and two ahead of Quinn Hughes, who were both rookies in 2019-2020. At 6-foot-7, Hedman is a towering presence on the ice, yet he skates so fluidly that he just swallows up the space around opposing puck carriers. It is fair to wonder how much longer that Hedman will be able to play like this, as he will turn 35 in December, but there is little reason to believe that the end is near. Since that’s the case, it’s reasonable to expect a dozen goals and 65 points out of Hedman during the 2025-2026 season.

Darren Raddysh

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	6	30	36	0.46

A relative late bloomer, Raddysh is a 29-year-old right-shot defenceman who just completed his second full NHL season, and he has shown that he has the puck skills to make a solid contribution at this level. Raddysh’s ice time went down nearly two minutes per game last season, and he still finished with 37 points (6 G, 31 A) in 73 games. The Lightning were strategic in how they deployed Raddysh, as he started 62 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone, and while that might look like he’s being sheltered, it’s also a matter of playing to his strengths. He is not the most aggressive defender, but his strength lies in his ability to move the puck up the ice and make plays with the puck on his stick, either with a crisp breakout pass or finding a teammate in scoring position. While he does not have a great deal of NHL experience, he has plenty of pro hockey experience, so he should not be treated like a young up-and-comer. Considering that Raddysh appears to have held off any kind of initial challenge from J.J. Moser for second unit power play time, it should be reasonable to expect similar production during the 2025-2026 season. That means 35 points, with maybe 8-10 of those points coming via the power play, is entirely possible.

Ryan McDonagh

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	5	25	30	0.37

Returning to the Tampa Bay Lightning after a couple of seasons in Nashville, McDonagh thrived in his role as a two-way defenceman, contributing 31 points (4 G, 27 A) while leading the league with a +43 rating. There was some good fortune involved for McDonagh to lead the league in plus-minus, considering that the Lighting were outshot when he was on the ice during five-on-five play, but the combination of an on-ice shooting percentage of 11.2 percent and on-ice save percentage of .931 helped McDonagh to build a +22 goal differential during five-on-five play. He was also on the ice for seven shorthanded goals and had a +15 during other even-strength action. McDonagh was on the ice for one goal against while the Lightning were on the power play. His most common partner last season was Erik Cernak, and given their success, it’s hard to imagine the Lightning changing that up. Even though he is 36 years old, there is little reason to suspect that McDonagh is ready for the decline phase of his career. That may be coming soon, but he should still be a steady presence for the Lightning in 2025-2026. He doesn’t have a significant role on the power play, but should still be able to put up 30 points and 150 blocked shots while anchoring the Lightning’s second defence pairing.

J.J. Moser

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	4	20	24	0.29

Acquired from Utah in the trade that sent Mikhail Sergachev to the Mammoth, Moser’s first season in Tampa Bay was relatively uninspiring. He missed a significant chunk of time with a lower-body injury and finished with just 14 points (2 G, 12 A) in 54 games. He could offer much more than that, as Moser had shown before the trade that he is a shifty on his feet, skates well and also plays with a competitive edge. It should not go unnoticed that even though his ice time went down by a couple of minutes in his first season with Tampa Bay, his most common defence partner was Victor Hedman, so the team is giving him a good opportunity to have success at even strength. The challenge for Moser, when it comes to generating enough offence that would appeal to fantasy managers, is that he does not have a spot on either of the Lightning’s top two power play units, with Hedman and Darren Raddysh the most likely power play quarterbacks. Moser has the puck skills to at least handle a second unit power play, but he’s not assured of that spot, so that tends to put a damper on his statistical expectations for 2025-2026. Moser should probably be expected to contribute about 25 points, reflecting his quality even-strength situation and lack of power play time.

Erik Cernak

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	2	15	17	0.23

A certified banger on the Lightning blueline, Cernak has had trouble staying healthy, in part due to his physical style of play, but he did suit up for a career-high 76 games last season. He was a highly effective partner for Ryan McDonagh, and Cernak finished the season with a career-high 21 points (3 G, 18 A). He had more than 150 hits for the sixth time in seven seasons, with the only exception being during the shortened 2020-2021 season, when he had 98 hits in 46 games. Cernak has also blocked 308 shots in the past three seasons, so his appeal for fantasy managers lies in those peripheral numbers. He played a career-low 18:16 per game last season and doesn’t score enough to hold that much value, but banger leagues might appreciate those hits and while he’s not a menace on the ice, Cernak has recorded at least 50 penalty minutes in five of his seven seasons. He is most likely to fall in the 15-to-20-point range this season, so the hits and blocked shots are really the specific categories in which he might offer fantasy value.

GOAL

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
63	36	20	5	6	0.917	2.25

Only two teams in the NHL have taken the arrival of a star starting goaltender and used it as license to run them solo until they retire - and while it certainly earned Tampa Bay their postseason rewards, it feels every year like Andrei Vasilevskiy is finally going to start showing some signs of fatigue. The Tom Brady of Florida goaltending, Vasilevskiy has firmly cemented himself as the only name-brand starter the Lightning need for yet another season; they'll enter their 2025-26 campaign with Jonas Johansson and Brandon Halverson prepared to fill in as the requisite 'Body In Net' for twenty games a year for the second time in a row.

As was the concern before last season, Jonas Johansson put up some of the worst backup numbers the league had to offer - and Halverson was even worse, recording just one game with a sub-.800 save percentage over the course of the full 82-game year. Luckily for Tampa Bay, that regression that Vasilevskiy has to experience at some point didn't show up; he tied Connor Hellebuyck for the heaviest game workload of the year and still managed to finish with some of the best stats in the league overall. He remains an easy bet for Tampa on any given night, averaging about one dud of a game per month and putting up game-clinching performances almost 70 percent of the time. As long as he doesn't get injured, Tampa might not win the cup every year - but they won't exactly stumble, either.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – What about the Maple Leafs is not working? – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 01 Feb 2025 16:05:37 +0000

TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 24: Toronto Maple Leafs Winger William Nylander (88) skates with the puck during the NHL regular season game between the Winnipeg Jets and the Toronto Maple Leafs on January 24, 2024, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

The Maple Leafs are going through a bit of a rough patch, losing their past three games and six of their last nine. Even after factoring in that slump, though, they have an impressive 30-19-2 record. This downturn is also coming at a time when they’re missing one of their top forwards in John Tavares (lower body) as well as the continued absence of Anthony Stolarz (knee).

Toronto seems to be a city of anxiety when it comes to the Leafs, brought on by years of playoff disappointments, so success seems to be treated with an asterisk whereas slumps come with an “Oh boy, here we go again” attitude, but given the overall success of this team thus far in 2024-25 and the recent injuries, would it be best to dismiss the recent struggles as just the type of stretch that every good team goes through, or is there really an underlining issue being exposed?

Certainly, this is still a good team, but when people express those doubts about Toronto, they’re not disputing that. Instead, they’re saying this team isn’t good enough to be regarded as a serious Stanley Cup contender, and by that standard, I do think this stretch highlights an area of real concern. Toronto has managed just one goal in each of its past three games and ranks 13th in goals per game this campaign with 3.04. For a team that’s built around four elite forwards, to have a lack of offense is rather discouraging.

In fact, 74.5 percent of Toronto’s cap is eaten by forwards compared to 54.3 percent for Winnipeg (3.58 goals per game) and 56.5 percent for Tampa Bay (3.48 goals per game). In fact, the only other team close to the Maple Leafs in terms of the percentage of their cap spent on forwards is Washington, but while the Capitals are at 74.7 percent, their situation is weird because Nicklas Backstrom ($9.2 million against the cap) and TJ Oshie ($5.75 million against the cap) are on LTIR. Even if we were talking apples to apples, though, at least Washington is getting value at 3.49 goals per game.

So, what is it about Toronto that isn’t working? You’ve probably already guessed because it is the common argument against the Maple Leafs’ way of doing things: If you spend $46.65 million on four forwards (Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Tavares and Mitch Marner), then you don’t have much left over for the rest of your forward corps.

On another team, that could be supplemented by young players on entry-level contracts or players locked to team-friendly contracts. Toronto doesn’t have much of either on the forward side of things. Part of that is because for years now, Toronto has been trading futures for playoff runs that didn’t materialize.

The notable exception is Matthew Knies, who has 18 goals and 31 points in 47 appearances this campaign, but even that is about to go away given that this is the last season of his entry-level contract. Outside of him and the Big Four, no Maple Leafs player has reached the 15-goal or 25-point mark.

That also makes them particularly vulnerable to absences, such as the current one by Tavares. It does have to be said that Toronto did fairly well without Matthews during stretches of the campaign, but that was due to strong goaltending rather than other forwards filling the void. In Toronto’s first stint without Matthews from Nov. 5-27, the team went 7-2-0 despite averaging just 2.89 goals per game. Toronto was a mixed 3-3-0 during Matthews second absence from Dec. 21-Jan. 2 and once again managed just 2.83 goals per game.

That strong goaltending has been the backbone of the Maple Leafs this campaign, but we’ve seen vulnerability there since Dec. 14 with Toronto allowing 3.32 goals per game. It’s not coincidental that the Maple Leafs’ dip in goaltending is what’s made Toronto’s underwhelming offense -- something that’s nothing new this campaign -- gain attention. A lot can be forgiven or ignored as long as the team collectively is winning. It’s also not coincidental that Dec. 14 to present covers Toronto’s span without Stolarz, who had been terrific before getting hurt with a 9-5-2 record, 2.15 GAA and .927 save percentage in 17 appearances.

When Stolarz comes back, perhaps he’ll resume his dominant play, and Toronto’s mediocre scoring will once again seem acceptable. Once thing this stretch has highlighted, though: The Maple Leafs need him. Unlike some older versions of the Maple Leafs who were driven by offense, this team hasn’t consistently shown an ability to impress when not backed up by great goaltending.

Calgary Flames (Tue vs TOR, Thu vs COL, Sat vs SEA)

The Flames will wrap up their schedule before the 4 Nations Face-Off with a trio of home games. They’ll host Toronto on Tuesday, Colorado on Thursday and Seattle on Saturday. It’s fairly tough competition, but I wanted to highlight them anyway to discuss the trade that sent Andrei Kuzmenko, Jakob Pelletier and two draft picks (2025 second rounder, 2028 seventh rounder) in exchange for Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee.

In terms of what Calgary gave up, the 23-year-old Pelletier is a former first-round pick, but hasn’t developed into a top six forward yet, supplying four goals and 11 points in 24 outings this season before the trade. Meanwhile, Kuzmenko is a former 39-goal scorer, but he’s struggled to do much of anything with the Flames in 2024-25, collecting four goals and 15 points in 37 outings. In other words, the Flyers got some interesting pieces in this trade, but Calgary isn’t losing assets that were likely to help the squad in the short term.

The best piece Calgary got in exchange for that was Frost, who has 11 goals and 25 points in 49 appearances in 2024-25 after recording 41 and 46 points in 2023-24 and 2022-23, respectively. He’s a solid third-line center who looks fine on the draw with a 51.6 winning percentage this year. Nazem Kadri and Mikael Backlund will probably play ahead of Frost up the middle, and when Connor Zary (knee) comes back, Zary might shift to the wing to play alongside the newly acquired Flyers center.

Frost isn’t likely to turn heads, but he should be a nice secondary scorer for a team struggling to find the back of the net (2.68 goals per game). The only potential sticking point is Frost couldn’t complete Wednesday’s 5-0 loss to New Jersey, which might indicate he’s dealing with an injury. It’s probably nothing serious if the Flames pulled the trigger on this trade, but perhaps it will delay his debut with the Flames.

When it comes to Farabee, he’s another middle-six forward. The 24-year-old did look like he was on track to become more than that last campaign when he supplied 22 goals and 50 points in 82 games, but he’s regressed this year with eight goals and 19 points in 50 outings. Perhaps a fresh start with Calgary will do him some good, but he’ll probably begin his stint with Calgary on the third line with Frost (assuming Frost is healthy).

For the 25-18-7 Flames, the question is if these moves are enough to win them a playoff spot. The team is still very dependent on Dustin Wolf to be stellar in goal -- his 19-8-2 record, 2.51 GAA and .917 save percentage in 29 appearances is a big part of the reason Calgary’s in this position -- but this should at least give him a bit more goal support.

Chicago Blackhawks (Wed vs EDM, Fri vs NSH, Sat @ STL)

The Blackhawks will get to rest up early this week before hosting the Oilers on Wednesday and Predators on Friday. Chicago will then travel to St. Louis for a clash Saturday.

In most cases, I’d label the 18-24-7 Predators and 23-24-4 Blues are favorable matchups, but we’re talking about Chicago…so that doesn’t really work. Chicago is 16-30-5, giving the franchise good odds of getting a top two pick for the third straight campaign. The silver lining is that sets the stage for the Blackhawks to have an amazing core to build around, but in the meantime, Connor Bedard is burning the second year of his entry-level contract on a team that’s not giving him much to work with.

Not that Bedard is putting up Connor McDavid-like numbers, but the Blackhawks sophomore is doing his part with 14 goals and 44 points in 50 games. There’s only so much he can do when only one other player on the team, Teuvo Teravainen, has more than 30 points. Chicago also recently dealt Taylor Hall to Carolina, and while he wasn’t living up to expectations with the Blackhawks, his nine goals and 24 points in 46 outings was still good enough to rank fifth among forwards in Chicago’s scoring race before the trade.

Ryan Donato, who ranks third with 29 points (15 goals) in 49 outings, might be gone soon too. The 28-year-old is in the final season of his two-year, $4 million contract, so it’s fair to believe Chicago will jump at the opportunity to move him for a pick or prospect.

Seth Jones, who is only in the third season of his eight-year, $76 million contract, is likely to stay, though. That contract hasn’t looked great for Chicago and with the benefit of hindsight, the timing was awkward given the Blackhawks’ performance over the life of it. However, Jones has his moments, and he’s going through one of them. The 30-year-old blueliner has recorded at least a point in each of his past seven appearances, giving him two goals and 10 points in that span. If you’re looking for someone who will provide value this week in Chicago outside of Bedard, Jones is your best bet.

Los Angeles Kings (Wed vs MTL, Fri vs DAL, Sat vs ANA)

The Kings will spend the week at home, facing Montreal, Dallas and Anaheim on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday, respectively. They’ll try to enter the break on a positive note after going 2-7-1 from Jan. 11-30.

Los Angeles’ recent slump is due in large part to a lack of scoring. The Kings have managed three or more goals just once in that 10-game span. Anze Kopitar has been noticeably quiet. The 37-year-old is having a great campaign overall with 12 goals and 43 points through 49 appearances, but he’s supplied just four assists over his past 13 outings. It should just be a matter of time before the veteran gets going again, but perhaps fantasy managers should consider benching him until that time comes.

Phillip Danault has left plenty to be desired too after collecting only two points (one goal) across his last 11 games. He’s now on pace to record just 38 points this season, which would make it the first time he’s ever finished below the 40-point mark in a season where he’s logged at least 70 games.

Obviously, the slump has skewed the scoring pace downward, but there are areas of concern beyond that. Perhaps the most discouraging aspect of his game is his complete lack of power-play production. He had nine points with the man advantage last season and a career-high 20 in 2022-23, but he still hasn’t found the scoresheet on the power play this campaign. To make matters worse for him, with Drew Doughty back, Danault might find himself shifting out of the power-play makeup entirely.

Speaking of Doughty, he made his season debut following a knee injury without any sort of time management to ease him back in. He logged 23:51 of ice time Wednesday and another 27:43 the very next day. He didn’t get any points over his first two contests, but the Kings were shutout of back-to-back games, so that’s less of a Doughty thing and more of a byproduct of the team’s overall slump.

Los Angeles is a good enough team to overcome its recent struggles, and Doughty should be an effective defender the rest of the way. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him collect 15-20 points over what’s left of the campaign.

Montreal Canadiens (Tue @ SJS, Wed @ LAK, Sat vs NJD, Sun vs TBL)

The Canadiens are one of just a handful of squads set to play four games next week. They’ll start on the road with contests in San Jose on Tuesday and Los Angeles on Wednesday. Afterward, Montreal will host the Devils on Saturday and the Lightning on Sunday.

The Canadiens battled their way back in the playoff conversation by going 13-3-1 from Dec. 17-Jan. 21, but some of that momentum has been lost after dropping their past four games (0-3-1). Unfortunately, Jakub Dobes has lost some of his initial magic. He burst onto the scene by stopping 103 of 107 shots (.963 save percentage) across his first four starts -- all wins -- but he’s allowed at least three goals in each of his past three outings.

The 23-year-old is a promising netminder who has a 2.44 GAA and a .910 save percentage in 14 AHL appearances this season, but he’s not presently one of the best goaltenders in the world. A drop off from his hot start isn’t shocking and you similarly shouldn’t be surprised if he’s able to work his way back from it. He should average out to be a pretty decent rookie for the Canadiens in the second half of the campaign, but it would be too much to hope for Dobes to drag Montreal into the playoffs.

If the Canadiens are going to feature in the postseason, it will probably need to be the offense leading the charge. Patrik Laine has slumped recently too, though, being held off the scoresheet in each of his past three outings. Laine tends to be a very streaky scorer who sometimes seems unstoppable and on other occasions is a nonfactor. If he’s on your team, you have to work around these cold patches. Benching him wouldn’t be the worst idea in the short term but put him right back into the mix the second he finds the back of the net because one goal from him often kicks off a new hot streak.

When Laine starts going again, it should also help Lane Hutson, who is on a four-game scoring drought. Hutson isn’t solely dependent on Laine for offense, but it’s fair to say that the two have found chemistry, especially with the man advantage, so what’s good for one is often good for the other.

Hutson is also just one point shy of 40. The last time the Canadiens had a rookie defenseman hit that milestone was 1984-85 when Chris Chelios and Tom Kurvers surpassed that mark. The only other rookie blueliner to ever reach that milestone in franchise history was Guy Lapointe in 1970-71.

Ottawa Senators (Mon @ NSH, Tue @ TBL, Thu @ TBL, Sat @ FLA)

During a busier week, I wouldn’t be highlighting the Senators because they have a rather tough schedule, but because they’re one of the rare squads set to play in four games, I’ll feature them anyway. The Senators will be on the road all week, starting in Nashville on Monday before playing two games in Tampa Bay on Tuesday and Thursday. Ottawa will then conclude the week in Florida on Saturday.

In contrast to the Canadiens, Ottawa has won its last three games, bringing the Senators up to an 8-2-1 record dating back to Jan. 11. That’s propelled Ottawa to the third spot in the Atlantic Division, just four points behind Toronto and five shy of Florida.

If you had suggested at the beginning of the campaign that this would be the Senators’ position, many would have assumed that it was a sign that Linus Ullmark had worked out superbly, and while the goaltender does have an impressive 2.38 GAA and .915 save percentage, he’s been limited to 23 outings due to injury and hasn’t played since Dec. 22.

Even with him gone, though, goaltending hasn’t been an issue. Leevi Merilainen has looked fantastic, posting a 7-3-1 record, 2.19 GAA and .921 save percentage in 11 appearances. Although Anton Forsberg hasn’t been nearly as effective overall, he’s done his part recently too with a 3-1-0 record, 2.19 GAA and a .922 save percentage over his last five outings.

Ullmark is close to returning, so it will be interesting to see what Ottawa does next. The path of least resistance would be to send Merilainen back to the minors because he’s waiver-exempt. It feels wrong to demote a goaltender who has been doing this good, but you also need to keep in mind that he’s 22 years old. He might not get many starts in a scenario where all three goaltenders are healthy, so it’s probably better for his development if he’s with AHL Belleville and playing regularly.

That scenario assumes Forsberg can at least do adequately as the backup. He’s done well lately but still hasn’t been great overall, posting a 2.87 GAA and an .893 save percentage across 19 outings in 2024-25. If he starts struggling again, then Ottawa could push him to the side. At the very least, Forsberg has less job security now than he had at the beginning of the campaign.

Perhaps the Senators will consider seeing if there is a taker for Forsberg on the trade market. There might not be much demand for him, but it wouldn’t be surprising if that’s an avenue they’ve explored. Whatever consideration they gave to the possibility of trading Claude Giroux is probably over, though. The 37-year-old is in the final year of his contract, so it would have made sense to move him before the Senators got hot, but now that a playoff berth is looking realistic, there’s little reason to move one of their top six forwards, so fans of other contenders can likely cross him off their wish list.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Tue vs OTT, Thu vs OTT, Sat @ DET, Sun @ MTL)

Ottawa has surpassed Tampa Bay in the standing, but the Lightning will have an opportunity to reclaim their spot. As noted above, Tampa Bay is set to host the Senators on Tuesday and Thursday. After those two key games, Tampa Bay will hit the road, playing in Detroit on Saturday and Montreal on Sunday.

It might be a bit much to say Tampa Bay is slumping -- the Lightning earned a 3-0 win over LA on Thursday -- but at the least, the results have been mild recently. Dating back to Dec. 29, Tampa Bay has a record of 7-9-1.

The Lightning have scored just 2.47 goals per game during that 17-game stretch, so it’s fair to say offense has been at the heart of the problem. That’s despite Nikita Kucherov providing an impressive seven goals and 22 points in that span.

However, a lot of other players are a step below what they’re capable of producing. Kucherov’s typical linemates, Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point aren’t enduring a full-blown drought, but they’re usually better than the 13 and 10 points, respectively, they’ve collected over the past 17 games. Brandon Hagel (six goals, 14 points) and Victor Hedman (three goals, 12 points) have largely held their own over that stretch too, but their overall scoring pace has declined relative to what it was before Dec. 29.

Taken on their own, the dip of any of those four high-end producers wouldn’t be a big deal, but to have all four of them drop at the same time is noteworthy. That’s compounded by the more significant decline Anthony Cirelli has suffered. After averaging a point-per-game through his first 32 outings (14 goals, 18 assists), he’s managed just two goals and seven points across his past 17 appearances.

Let’s look at this another way: Of Tampa Bay’s top nine scorers through Dec. 28, only one, Darren Raddysh, has seen his point-per-game pace increase over Tampa Bay’s last 17 games. Meanwhile, seven of the nine have a point-per-game pace from Dec. 29-Jan. 30 that’s at least 26 basis points less than it was from the start of the campaign through Dec. 28. Even Kucherov, who as seen a significant decline between those two stretches -- 1.71 PPG compared to 1.29 PPG.

So, it’s not a one player problem. The team collectively has cooled, and there aren’t players outside of that core who have stepped up to fill the void.

Utah HC (Tue vs PHI, Thu @ CBJ, Sat @ CAR, Sun @ WSH)

Utah has a busy week ahead of it. The Hockey Club will host the Flyers on Tuesday before hitting the road with clashes in Columbus on Thursday, Carolina on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.

This has nothing to do with fantasy hockey, but I got to note that Utah will apparently not be able to use the nickname Yeti or Yetis, per The Salt Lake Tribune. That leaves the finalists as the Utah Mammoth, Utah Outlaws or sticking with Utah Hockey Club. I’ll be honest, I don’t like any of those options, but a good logo and time can cause branding to grow on people.

I just hope they don’t stick with Hockey Club. As a placeholder, I get it, and I understand it’s a perfectly common name in other sports -- as someone from Toronto, Toronto FC immediately jumps to mind, and that’s one of many MLS teams using FC. However, to me, Hockey Club feels like the absence of identity rather than an identity in and of itself. At the end of the day, though, it’s not for me to decide. The fans of the team are what matter here, but if I was picking, that would be last on my list.

Clayton Keller jerseys should sell regardless. He certainly is playing well enough to deserve it. He has 18 goals and 54 points in 49 appearances, and Keller’s been consistent too, not being held off the scoresheet for more than two games in a row this campaign.

Logan Cooley is sure to help define the Utah franchise too. The 20-year-old sophomore is enjoying a breakout campaign with 15 goals and 43 points in 50 appearances. However, Utah will have to get along without him for a while because he suffered a lower-body injury Wednesday and is regarded as being out indefinitely. That’s on top of the absence of Dylan Guenther (lower body), who has 16 goals and 34 points in 40 outings, but hasn’t played since Jan. 8.

With both of them gone, Josh Doan seems set to serve in a top six capacity and the first power-play unit. He hasn’t done much with his opportunities so far this campaign, collecting just two goals and five points in 19 outings, but he does still have upside and is worth keeping an eye on.

We might also see Matias Maccelli get a fresh opportunity. Maccelli has averaged just 13:58 of ice time this campaign and was even a healthy scratch Wednesday, but with Cooley out, Maccelli could find himself on the second unit. Maccelli has just 17 points (eight goals) in 48 outings this campaign, but he had 49 points in 2022-23 and 57 points last season, so a comeback isn’t out of the question.

Vegas Golden Knights (Tue @ NYI, Thu @ NJD, Sat 2 BOS)

Vegas will be on the road next week, playing against the Islanders on Tuesday, New Jersey on Thursday and Boston on Saturday. All of those adversaries are in the mix for a playoff spot, but only the Devils are a safe bet to make the postseason at this time.

Vegas seems all-but certain to make the playoffs too given its 31-15-6 record, but the Golden Knights have faltered recently, going 3-6-3 over their past 12 games. Vegas, which had been doing fairly well on the injury front, also got some bad news there. William Karlsson (lower body) has missed the past five games and isn’t close to returning. Cole Schwindt (lower body) will probably be out for a while too.

The Golden Knights attempted to help fill that void by inking Brandon Saad to a one-year, $1.5 million contract. Saad was an unrestricted free agent because he and the Blues mutually agreed to terminate what was left on his remaining on his five-year, $22.5 million contract, which would have run through 2025-26. Even after signing that deal with Vegas, Saad has cost himself millions of dollars by agreeing to walk away from his old deal, but that also highlights how much value he puts on playing in the NHL.

The Blues waived him Tuesday and he cleared because no team wanted his old $4.5 million cap hit. Saad could have simply reported to the minors and collected his paycheck, but the 32-year-old instead took this path, which led him to a fresh opportunity with Vegas.

Although he hasn’t been terribly productive this campaign, recording seven goals and 16 points in 43 outings with St. Louis, he can be an effective middle-six winger. Vegas will likely give him an opportunity to play on the third unit, perhaps alongside Raphael Lavoie and Nicolas Roy. Saad might also get a look on the second power-play unit, but that’s far from certain.

I wouldn’t expect big things from Saad, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he proves to be serviceable with his new team. He also might end up doing a little better when Karlsson returns -- it's entirely feasible Saad and Karlsson will end up playing together when that happens with Roy shifting to the fourth line.

One player Saad is less likely to play with is Tomas Hertl, which is a shame for Saad because Hertl is red hot. The 31-year-old is on an 11-game scoring streak in which he’s provided nine goals and 15 points. Funny enough, he has a neutral plus/minus, even during that terrific stretch, keeping him at a team-worst minus-10 overall. Hertl looks more appealing in terms of possession stats -- his 5v5 relative Corsi and Fenwick are plus-1.8 and plus-4.0, respectively, which suggests the team performs better when he’s on the ice -- but it seems plus/minus is destined to be the one area where he underperforms.

NHL: CULLEN – Laine making the most of his power play time, Schmaltz, Hertl and Nelson are hot, Jones thriving since returning to lineup, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 24 Jan 2025 23:24:57 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 07: Patrik Laine (92) of the Montreal Canadiens skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Washington Capitals and the Montreal Canadiens on Dec 07 2024, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC(Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Patrik Laine has made the most of his power play time in Montreal, Nick Schmaltz, Tomas Hertl and Brock Nelson are hot, Seth Jones is thriving since returning to the Chicago lineup, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 It is not like the hockey world forgot what Patrik Laine could do when the puck hit his stick, but he has been playing sporadically in recent seasons, so the evidence wasn’t quite so evident. After joining the Montreal Canadiens, however, Laine has shown that he is still a lethal shooter. In 20 games with the Habs, Laine has 18 points (12 G, 6 A) with 54 shots on goal. He is scoring on 22.2 percent of his shots, which is a higher rate than he has finished in any previous season, but he is also quite specifically a power play threat, with 10 of his 12 goals coming with the man advantage. Laine has 10.35 goals per 60 minutes of power play time, which ranks first among players that have played at least 30 minutes on the power play this season. Victor Olofsson (6.48), Pavel Dorofeyev (5.76), Michael Bunting (5.22), and Brayden Point (4.82) round out the top five in power play goal-scoring efficiency.

#2 Veteran Utah Hockey Club right winger Nick Schmaltz has established his credentials as a quality point producing forward but had been off to a relatively slow start prior to embarking on what is now a seven-game point streak, during which he has nine points (3 G, 6 A). Schmaltz has consistently played alongside Clayton Keller, but the duo has recently added second-year centre Logan Cooley to the top line and Cooley has been cooking, putting up 30 points (12 G. 18 A) in his past 28 games.

#3 Barrett Hayton, who has played quite a bit with Schmaltz and Keller in recent seasons, has moved to a line with Matias Maccelli and Josh Doan and continues to have success, tallying seven points (3 G, 4 A) in his past four games. Hayton’s ice time is down this season to 15:24 per game after playing more than 17 minutes per game in the previous two seasons, but he has also improved his work in the face-off circle, winning 54.2 percent of his draws. Given Cooley’s offensive upside, it probably makes more sense for Hayton to slot in as the No. 2 centre in Utah.

#4 Vegas Golden Knights centre Tomas Hertl had been relatively inconsistent early in the season, but he might be turning the corner. He is riding a seven-game point streak, putting up 11 points (6 G, 5 A) with 25 shots on goal in those seven games. That elevated shot rate is an important factor because Hertl was averaging 2.24 shots per game through the first 41 games of the season. Taking that up to 3.57 shots per game is a strong indicator for a player sustaining is production.

#5 New York Islanders centre Brock Nelson is finding his name in trade rumours as the Isles are sitting in last place in the Metropolitan Division. He is helping to keep his value high, scoring seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 18 shots on goal while playing more than 20 minutes per game in his past six games. A 6-foot-4 centre who has scored more than 30 goals in three straight seasons, Nelson is obviously appealing for a team looking to boost its offense.

#6 Chicago Blackhawks defenceman Seth Jones is starting to heat up. He had missed five weeks with a foot injury, but has delivered 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in 14 games since getting back into the lineup. Jones has recorded 10 of his 20 points on the power play, and with 7.87 points per 60 minutes on the power play, he ranks third among defencemen, behind only Zach Werenski (8.11) and Neal Pionk (7.91).

#7 Seattle Kraken centre Chandler Stephenson had been on a good run before getting injured Thursday night. In his past 11 games, including Thursday, Stephenson has contributed 10 points (5 G, 5 A) but there is a bona fide concern with his low shot rate. He has 46 shots on goal in 48 games, which is a shockingly low amount for a player who logs more than 19 minutes of ice time per game. With Yanni Gourde also injured, Stephenson’s absence could create more playing time for Shane Wright, who is making progress. In his first 23 games of the season, Wright had seven points (4 G, 11 A), but in the next 23 games, he has contributed 15 points (4 G, 11 A).

#8 Looking for a buy-low winger? Consider Kevin Fiala of the Los Angeles Kings. In 11 games since the holiday break, Fiala has a modest five points (2 G, 3 A) but he also has 40 shots on goal. That shot rate is encouraging, but there is also the matter of Fiala’s low on-ice shooting percentage this season. During five-on-five play, the Kings are scoring on just 5.8 percent of their shots when Fiala is on the ice, which is his lowest since his rookie season in 2016-2017.

#9 Calgary Flames winger Blake Coleman can fly under the radar a bit but when he is contributing offensively, that makes his fantasy contribution quite strong. In his past 17 games, Coleman has 15 points (5 G, 10 A) but he also has 36 hits and that combination makes him quite appealing for fantasy managers. Coleman is unlikely to match last season’s career highs of 30 goals and 54 points, but already has 92 hits in 46 games, so if the point production continues, Coleman’s all-around contribution is solid.

#10 On a similar level, Boston Bruins forward Morgan Geekie has picked up his production a bit, with eight points (5 G, 3 A) in his past 10 games, but he also has 25 hits in those 10 games. Be a little wary, though, since Geekie only has 16 shots on goal in those 10 games, his goal-scoring has been dependent on a high shooting percentage (31.3 percent in the past 10 games).

#11 Carolina Hurricanes rookie right winger Jackson Blake has found his way to the top line, skating with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. Blake has played 15:27 per game over the past four, chipping in three points (1 G, 2 A) with nine shots on goal. It is probably too soon to jump on Blake in most fantasy leagues, but if he remains on that top line there is obvious scoring upside for a player who ranks third among rookies with 11 goals despite very limited ice time (12:02 ATOI). (Editors note – The Rantanen trade followed the publication of this article – the coach may want to spread the scoring around, but it is more likely Rantanen takes that spot on the top line)

#12 Toronto Maple Leafs centre John Tavares is out of the lineup due to a lower-body injury and for all of the criticism that Tavares takes, he remains a high-end point producer, with 42 points (20 G, 22 A) in 44 games before getting hurt. The challenge for the Maple Leafs is to get contributions down the middle of the ice behind Auston Matthews because, with Tavares out, the second line centre is Pontus Holmberg and the third line centre is rookie Fraser Minten. Holmberg has zero goals and one assist in his past 11 games while Minten has zero points in his past eight NHL games after starting with four points in his first five games.

#13 With the New York Islanders’ season teetering on the brink, they got bad news that standout defenceman Noah Dobson is considered week-to-week with a lower-body injury. Dobson’s production has fallen off the pace he set last season, when he had a career-high 70 points (10 G, 60 A) in 79 games, as he has 24 points (6 G, 18 A) in 46 games this season, but the Islanders don’t have great options to replace him on the power play. Ryan Pulock has handled the role before and is noted for his heavy shot from the point, but has one power play point this season.

#14 New Jersey Devils goaltender Jacob Markstrom has suffered a sprained MCL, which will keep him out of the lineup for 4-6 weeks. Markstrom has been exactly what the Devils needed between the pipes, with a .912 save percentage and 10.0 goals saved above expectations in 36 games. With Markstrom out, Jake Allen will need to handle the starter’s role. Allen has a .901 save percentage and 4.04 goals saved above expected in 15 games this season, so he is a capable starting goaltender for the next month plus.

#15 The Boston Bruins are in a tough battle for a playoff spot, for the first time in a while, but that is made even more challenging when goaltender Jeremy Swayman and No. 1 defenceman Charlie McAvoy are sidelined with injuries. Defenceman Hampus Lindholm was already injured, so the current version of the Bruins is without its top two defencemen and top goaltender, and that is going to make it even more difficult. Swayman’s injury does not seem serious, so Joonas Korpisalo may only have short term value, but McAvoy has landed on injured reserve, which will keep him out for at least a week. This defensive weakening does make the Bruins more vulnerable, potentially worth targeting as opposition while the Bruins are missing Lindholm and McAvoy.

#16 Bruins defenceman Mason Lohrei has been making the most of his opportunity to quarterback the power play. He has six points (1 G, 5 A) in the past seven games and is up to 10 power play points. With 6.85 points per 60 minutes on the power play, Lohrei is tied for 15th (with Chicago’s Alex Vlasic) among NHL defencemen.

#17 Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin is considered week to week with a lower-body injury, and that leaves a large hole for the Avalanche. In 21 games, Nichushkin has 17 points (11 G, 6 A). His absence keeps Ross Colton in Colorado’s top six and while Colton has been held scoreless in his past four games, he is worth keeping tabs on as a player with potential upside because he thrived earlier in the season when given a big opportunity due to injuries.

#18 Ottawa Senators centre Josh Norris is out with an upper-body injury. Given his history with shoulder woes, Norris’ health is an area of concern, yet the thing is that he can still produce when healthy. In 47 games this season, Norris has produced 17 goals and 27 points. The Sens do get David Perron back in the lineup, so that should theoretically help alleviate Norris’ absence, but Perron has failed to record a point in 10 games this season, so expectations should be kept in check. Senators defenceman Jake Sanderson is out of the lineup with a lower-body injury, which elevates Thomas Chabot to the first power play unit.

#19 Norris’ absence from the Senators’ lineup should also open the door for Shane Pinto to step up. While Pinto has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 18 shots on goal in the past eight games, he is also averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game in that time, so it would be a prime opportunity for Pinto to lift his offensive production because with 16 points (8 G, 8 A) in 40 games, he has underachieved offensively.

#20 Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Darren Raddysh has elevated his game recently, producing six points (2 G, 4 A) with 13 shots on goal in the past five games, averaging 21:50 time on ice per game. With J.J. Moser and Erik Cernak injured, the Lightning certainly need Raddysh to take on more responsibility. In his first 18 games this season, Raddysh averaged 15:30 time on ice per game and in 20 games since then, has averaged 20:04 per game.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Young Players Getting Exciting Opportunities

Scott Cullen — Fri, 11 Oct 2024 18:42:36 +0000

_{PITTSBURGH, PA - SEPTEMBER 28:Buffalo Sabres center Jiri Kulich (20) skates with the puck during the second period in the NHL preseason game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Buffalo Sabres on September 28, 2023, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)}

Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. With so few games played, this week will look at some players getting exciting opportunities to start the year, including Dylan Guenther, Alex Laferriere, Matvei Michkov, and more!

Here is this season’s first edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Florida Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov was helped off the ice after suffering an apparent injury in Ottawa on Thursday night. If Barkov misses any time, Anton Lundell could be an intriguing addition for fantasy managers. Lundell is in his fourth NHL season and while he has not yet matched the 44 points that he had as a rookie, he did have 17 points in 24 playoff games last season. Lundell has one assist and nine shots on goal through the Panthers’ first two games.

#2 It has been a whirlwind year for Utah Hockey Club right winger Dylan Guenther, who finished last season with a flourish, putting up 23 points (12 G, 11 A) in his last 23 games. That earned him a contract extension in the summer. The 8-year, $57.14 million contract seemed like a lot given his lack of NHL experience, but it might already be a bargain. Teammates gush about Guenther’s shot and he has started this season with four goals in his first two games. As great as Guenther’s shot is, he is not going to keep scoring on 50 percent of his shots on goal, but there are early indications that Guenther and centre Logan Cooley are poised to have breakthrough seasons for Utah, with both skating on the second line and getting top unit power play time.

#3 Philadelphia Flyers rookie Matvei Michkov is the betting favorite to win the Calder Trophy, and it’s not merely based on his track record in Russia, which is admittedly excellent. Michkov had 41 points in 48 KHL games last season and the 19-year-old is starting his NHL career on Philadelphia’s top line and first power play unit. The Flyers are opening the season with Ducks defenseman Jamie Drysdale getting first crack at quarterbacking the Flyers’ power play. Drysdale is a smooth skater who has tallied 15 of his 50 career points on the power play.

#4 Former Flyers prospect Cutter Gauthier was traded to Anaheim last season and the Ducks are putting Gauthier in position to succeed, giving him time on the first line (with Leo Carlsson and Alex Killorn) and top power play right out of the gate. Gauthier had 65 points (38 G, 27 A) in 41 games as a sophomore at Boston College last season and he has impressive international credentials too, scoring nine points (7 G, 2 A) in 10 games at the 2023 World Championships and 12 points (2 G, 10 A) in seven games at the 2024 World Juniors.

#5 Second-year Los Angeles Kings left winger Alex Laferriere is starting the season on the Kings’ No. 1 line and top power play unit. Laferriere had 23 points (12 G, 11 A) as a rookie. He produced 73 points (35 G, 38 A) in 69 games in two seasons at Harvard, so there could be some offensive upside there, but with limited pedigree, he may be in a precarious position if he hits a slump.

#6 Kings defenseman Drew Doughty is out month-to-month after breaking his ankle in the preseason, so the expectation was that Brandt Clarke would move up to play on the Kings’ top power play unit. In Los Angeles’ first game, however, Jordan Spence played 4:26 on the power play for the Kings, compared to Brandt’s 3:34, so that is a situation worth keeping an eye on to see how it shakes out.

#7 With winger J.J. Peterka getting hurt in Prague, the Sabres have inserted top prospect Jiri Kulich into the lineup, taking Peterka’s place on Buffalo’s top line. Kulich was a first-round pick in 2022, and the 20-year-old winger has already played two seasons in the AHL, putting up 91 points (51 G, 40 A) in 119 games for Rochester.

#8 Montreal Canadiens rookie defenceman Lane Hutson is not quarterbacking Montreal’s top power play, but it may only be a matter of time. Hutson had a pair of assists against Boston on Thursday, giving him four assists in his first four NHL games, going back to last season. He produced 97 points (30 G, 67 A) in 77 games across two seasons at Boston University.

#9 A late summer free agent signing, Jack Roslovic is getting a chance to play on Carolina’s top line, with Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis. Roslovic set career highs of 22 goals and 45 points in 2021-2022, but if he is playing on Carolina’s top line, he could challenge those numbers.

#10 The Calgary Flames are entering a rebuilding process and part of that is giving young players significant opportunities. Samuel Honzek, a 2023 first-round pick has not only made the team, but he is getting a look on Calgary’s top line, alongside Nazem Kadri and Andrei Kuzmenko. Honzek, a 6-foot-4 winger, does not have a power play role yet, so his fantasy appeal is limited, but is very interesting as a long-term prospect. Connor Zary, a 2022 first-round pick, is taking on a bigger role in his second NHL season. Zary had 34 points (14 G, 20 A) in 63 games as a rookie last season and is getting first unit power play time to start this season. He scored a beauty in overtime to help the Flames to a win in Calgary on opening night and that should only fuel his confidence.

#11 There are times that it seems like there is a revolving door on Sidney Crosby’s wings in Pittsburgh, so don’t necessarily dive head-first into supporting these players, but Anthony Beauvillier and Drew O’Connor are skating on Sidney Crosby’s wings, at least while Bryan Rust remains out of the Penguins lineup. Beauvillier is coming off a down season, in which he scored just 17 points (5 G, 12 A) in 60 games, but he did net a pair of goals in Thursday’s win at Detroit. O’Connor had 33 points (16 G, 17 A) in 79 games last season and added a goal against Detroit.

#12 Opportunity is knocking in St. Louis for Dylan Holloway and Jake Neighbours, who are skating on a line with Robert Thomas, the Blues’ brilliant playmaking center. Holloway, who was signed to an offer sheet to lure him away from Edmonton in the summer, has one assist while averaging 15:02 ice time per game in his first two games with St. Louis. He averaged 10:21 of ice time per game in 89 games with the Oilers over the past two seasons. Neighbours broke through with a 27-goal season, including eight on the power play in 2023-2024 and should continue to play an even more prominent role in the Blues’ attack.

#13 Still eligible for the Calder Trophy after scoring 14 points (8 G, 6 A) in 24 games for the Dallas Stars last season, Logan Stankoven is starting the 2024-2025 season on Dallas’ top line, skating on the right side with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. Stankoven only played 12:29 in a season-opening win at Nashville on Thursday, but he also put up three assists, so that should keep him in a prime position.

#14 The New York Islanders signed Russian winger Maxim Tsyplakov as a free agent after he had 47 points (31 G, 16 A) in 65 games for Moscow Spartak in the KHL last season. The 26-year-old forward scored in his NHL debut against Utah on Thursday, and played an eye-popping 20:46, including 7:38 on the power play. Getting first unit power play time with the Islanders is a great opportunity for Tsyplakov to build on last season’s career-best results in the KHL.

#15 After scoring 40 points (21 G, 19 A) in 82 games as a rookie last season, Marco Rossi is centering Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello on Minnesota’s top line to start the 2024-2025 season. He is not getting first unit power play time – that goes to Kaprizov, Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy, and Brock Faber – but if Rossi can stick alongside Kaprizov long-term, that will raise his offensive ceiling.

#16 Oft-injured Ottawa Senators centre Josh Norris is healthy to start the season and getting a prime opportunity to skate on the Sens’ to power play, ahead of veteran Claude Giroux. Norris had 55 points (35 G, 20 A) in 66 games in 2021-2022, but has managed 33 points (18 G, 15 A) in 55 games across the past two seasons since then while dealing with persistent shoulder problems. Norris played more than 18 minutes in Ottawa’s season-opening win against Florida, recording an assist while skating on a line with Ridly Greig and Drake Batherson. If he’s healthy, Norris could offer quality fantasy value.

#17 With Florida Panthers defenceman Adam Boqvist out of the lineup after taking a puck in the face during the Panthers’ opening game, Aaron Ekblad is listed on Florida’s top power play unit, though Uvis Balinskis saw more power play time in Thursday’s loss at Ottawa. Ekblad is likely to play a big role on the Panthers’ blueline and has frequently been a contributor on the power play, with 111 of his 348 career points coming via the man advantage. Last season, he had just four power play points while delivering 18 points (4 G, 14 A) in 51 games, but with Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson departing via free agency, there are minutes to be earned on the Panthers power play. A healthy Boqvist might have the inside track, but Ekblad’s experience should not be overlooked.

#18 The Nashville Predators were movers and shakers in free agency and the arrival of 40-goal scorers Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault bumped Gustav Nyquist off Nashville’s top power play unit. Nyquist recorded a career-high 75 points last season, including 24 points on the power play, but he is not the same kind of proven scoring option, so that leaves Nyquist on the second power play unit in Nashville.

#19 Stamkos’ old team, the Tampa Bay Lightning are sorting out their own power play set up in his absence. To start the season, the Lightning are running two defencemen – Victor Hedman and Darren Raddysh – on their top power play unit, which is very unusual these days. Hedman has been a power play threat throughout his career, including last season when 31 of his 76 points were accrued with the man advantage. Raddysh, the 28-year-old blueliner, is something of a late bloomer, but he did have 33 points, including 11 on the power play, last season, which was his first full NHL campaign. It will be interesting to see how the Lightning play this going forward, whether they stick with the two defencemen or whether someone like Brandon Hagel or Nick Paul finds a spot on the top power play unit.

#20 After going through some tough seasons, including spending time in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, Jakub Vrana has returned to Washington, where his NHL career began, and earned a contract with the Capitals. Vrana, 28, has been an outstanding five-on-five scorer. Sincer 2018-2019, Vrana has scored 1.41 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. Among players that have played more than 50 games, there are only two – Auston Matthews (1.66) and David Pastrnak (1.41) – who rank higher than Vrana in that metric, and Pastrnak and Vrana are virtually tied. This doesn’t mean that Vrana is automatically going to provide fantasy value, as he has rarely been a power play performer, but for a player who was on the verge of washing out of the league, he is getting a fresh start and has the track record to suggest that he could be a productive secondary scorer for the Capitals.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Team Preview

Fri, 13 Sep 2024 16:00:01 +0000

ST. LOUIS, MO - JANUARY 14: Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) during a game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the St. Louis Blues on January 14, 2023, at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis MO (Photo by Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire)

The Lighting had 98 points (45-29-8) in the regular season and lost in the first round of the playoffs for a second straight year. They had enough high-end skill to be competitive, but with goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy not having his best season, they were not realistically among the top contenders. The Lightning ranked 15th in Corsi (50.7%) and 21st in expected goals percentage (49.1%) which certainly did not provide the foundation for a Stanley Cup championship. What the Lightning did have was an exceptional power play that scored a league-leading 10.98 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage. That masked a lot of the Lightning’s mediocrity. They also tied for fourth in penalty killing, allowing a mere 5.99 goals against per 60 minutes, so the season was a special teams success albeit not much else.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Lightning legend Steve Stamkos departed for Nashville in free agency, but the the team brought in Jake Guentzel, who finished last season in Carolina after years skating alongside Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh. The Lightning also added veterans Cam Atkinson and Zemgus Girgensons in free agency. Trade deadline pickup Anthony Duclair signed with the Islanders as a free agent and winger Tanner Jeannot landed in Los Angeles via trade. Defenceman Calvin De Haan signed as a free agent in Colorado. Tampa Bay made a couple of big moves on the blueline, trading to re-acquire Ryan McDonagh from Nashville and then sending Mikhail Sergachev to Utah in a deal that brought J.J. Moser in return. Is that enough to take the Lightning into a deeper playoff run?

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? For a team that has won two Stanley Cups and lost once more in the Final in the past five seasons, the only real success would be another Stanley Cup. However, for a team that has lost in the first round in back-to-back years, there is a smaller case ‘w’ to be earned by winning a round in the playoffs and getting back into the mix of teams that reach the final eight or final four before even worrying about another championship. For that to happen, the Lightning will need Vasilevskiy back in peak form and the players in the supporting cast will need to contribute consistently. This is possible, but maybe not the most likely outcome.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Because the Lightning roster is top heavy, an injury to one of the premier players – Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman, Vasilevskiy – could be difficult to overcome. The Lightning team doesn’t have the depth that the team did in 2020-21 when Kucherov missed the regular season and roared into the postseason to lead the playoffs in scoring on the way to winning the Stanley Cup. Vasilevskiy’s injury at the start of last season was difficult for Tampa Bay to overcome and as this team that does not typically invest a lot in its backup goaltender, Vasilevskiy’s importance to their success is even more than you might otherwise expect.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: This Lightning team is star-laden, and the big names are the ones driving the train, so any breakout candidates are likely to do so in supporting roles. A player like Michael Eyssimont is interesting, in that he is a late bloomer who will be 28 this season and has played 136 games in the NHL. What he has shown in that time is that he plays hard, will generate shots, and is not shy about playing a physical game when it comes to hits or fights, if need be. He plays with real commitment, likely forged by his battle just to reach the league, and if he gets a little bit of opportunity, he could provide secondary scoring for Tampa Bay.

Forwards

Nikita Kucherov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	36	80	116	1.41

Since the 2017-2018 season, Kucherov has racked up 639 points in 440 games, which ranks fourth in the NHL across that time frame. His 1.45 points per game ranks second, behind only Connor McDavid. Kucherov is a brilliant passer, who recorded 100 assists on his way to leading the league with 144 points in 2023-2024, the second time in his career that he earned the Art Ross Trophy. Kucherov played a career-high 21:40 per game last season, recording a career-high 3.78 shots on goal per game. His increased shot volume made him even more dangerous, leading to a career-high 44 goals, even though his shooting percentage (14.4 percent) was right in line with his career numbers. On top of playing the game with sublime skill, Kucherov also has an undercurrent of edgy play. He only had 22 penalty minutes and 45 hits last season, but he is not shy about taking a run at someone who he feels has wronged him on the ice, so he knows when to pick his spots. While Kucherov is a scoring threat in all situations, he has recorded at least 50 power-play points in back-to-back seasons, the only NHLer to reach that threshold in both years. Kucherov is one of the few players in the league who has a legitimate chance to win the scoring title and going into 2024-2025, it’s fair for the Lightning to expect 35-40 goals and 120 points from the playmaking winger.

Brayden Point

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	50	42	92	1.12

Tampa Bay’s No. 1 centre is coming off the third season of his career in which he finished with more than 40 goals and at least 90 points. He scored on more than 20 percent of his shots for the second consecutive season. Although the puck was moving in the right direction with Point on the ice, the Lighting were outscored during five-on-five play when Point was on the ice, so there is clearly room for improvement in terms of overall impact during even-strength play. His on-ice expected goals percentage of 50.7 was the lowest of his career, so it might warrant a tiny bit of caution for Point’s production moving forward. This is not to suggest that a player coming off back-to-back seasons with 90-plus points is somehow a risky pick, only that if Point can’t turn around the play-driving results, it would seem less likely that he could continue to score at the same rate, especially considering the high percentages that were responsible for his 2023-2024 production. At the same time, so long as Point has Kucherov on his wing and Point is getting first-unit power play time with such an elite scoring winger, the points should be there. That should lead Point to 40-45 goals and 85-90 points during the 2024-2025 campaign.

Jake Guentzel

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	40	48	88	1.13

When he first arrived in the National Hockey League, there was a tendency to dismiss Guentzel’s early production as a function of his playing with Sidney Crosby. Certainly, playing with Crosby did not hurt Guentzel, but he has established his own credentials as a scoring winger, and it was highlighted when he was traded to Carolina last season. Guentzel put up 25 points in 17 games for the Hurricanes (adding four goals and nine points in 11 playoff games) and it must be noted that Crosby did not play for the ‘Canes. Guentzel is not the strongest, not the fastest, and does not have the hardest shot. However, he is a smart and competitive player who consistently puts himself into dangerous scoring positions and it has led to big-time production. From 2018-2019 through last season, Guentzel had 410 points in 398 games, his 1.03 points per game in that time ranks 20th in the NHL. All of this made the veteran winger a highly demanded free agent and Tampa Bay won the sweepstakes to secure Guentzel’s services. He is an effective play-driving winger whose team outscored the opposition by double digits with Guentzel on the ice at five-on-five in four of the past five seasons. He should have a chance to remain incredibly productive, particularly if he is going to play with Kucherov and Point, two established stars. Guentzel could reasonably be expected to contribute 35 goals and 80 points in his first season for the Lightning.

Brandon Hagel

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	25	37	62	0.76

Coming off his fourth straight 20-goal season, Hagel has proven to be an excellent complementary winger for the Lightning, capable of moving around the lineup, from the top line with Point and Kucherov to further down the lineup, where he can elevate the level of speed and skill in the middle six. While Hagel was naturally more successful as a play driver when playing with Point and Kucherov, he had success with most of his linemates. Erik Cernak and Steven Stamkos were the only two players that played more than 200 minutes with Hagel that had Corsi or expected goals rates below 50 percent. Hagel uses his speed to create chances in transition and plays with a consistent drive that gets him to the front of the net often. From there, tips, rebounds and second-chance opportunities are there for the taking. A sixth-round pick of the Buffalo Sabres in 2016, Hagel had to battle just to make it into the league and he still plays with that fire, only now as an established scoring winger. The arrival of Guentzel likely means that Hagel will spend more time playing in the middle six but should also find first-unit power play time, so he should still be able to score. Although he put up a career-high 74 points last season, something in the range of 25 goals and 60-65 points seems a more reasonable expectation for 2024-2025.

Anthony Cirelli

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	29	47	0.57

Twice finishing in the top five of Selke Trophy voting, Cirelli has an outstanding reputation as a checking centre, though his defensive metrics are not quite at the elite level like they were a few years ago. It looked even worse in 2023-2024 because the Lightning had a .890 save percentage with Cirelli on the ice during five-on-five play, leading to Tampa Bay being outscored 54-49. Nevertheless, Cirelli delivered a career-high 45 points last season. Some of that was thanks to Cirelli scoring on 15.5 percent of his shots, after he scored on 11.1 percent of his shots in the previous three seasons. Strangely enough, for a strong checking centre, Cirelli is mediocre on faceoffs and last season’s success rate (49.2) matched his career mark at the dot. Cirelli has had the benefit of playing with high-end wingers at times in Tampa Bay and should have quality on his flanks in 2024-2025. That helps to elevate his offensive ceiling, but he has just 26 power play points across the past five seasons, which means it is not a big part of his game. Looking ahead to 2024-2025, Cirelli ought to be able to score between 15 and 20 goals on the way to contributing 40 points for the Lightning.

Nick Paul

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	20	20	40	0.50

A power forward who has found a home at centre in Tampa Bay, Paul hit career highs with 24 goals and 46 points last season. He played a career-high 17:16 per game and won a tidy 54.3 percent of his faceoffs. At 6-foot-3, 223 pounds, Paul can handle physical play and has recorded more than 100 hits in four of the past five seasons. Paul’s offensive breakthrough last season was largely due to his role on the power play, where he scored nine goals with the man advantage, making the most of his net-front position. The challenge for the Lighting, in the cases of both Paul and Cirelli, is that they both hit career highs last season so it might be difficult for them to expect even better production in 2024-2025. While he does not have a long track record of offensive production, there are some facets of Paul’s game that should remain consistent. He goes hard to the net, using his size to carve out space, and he has a hard shot that can be quite effective if he has room attacking on his off wing. Paul has made more of an impact offensively since joining the Lightning, in a trade for Mathieu Joseph and a fourth-round pick, so he should still be a solid centre in Tampa Bay’s middle six, but a reasonable projection likely falls around 20 goals and 40 points.

Cam Atkinson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	22	21	43	0.58

After missing the entire 2022-2023 season, Atkinson returned to action for the Flyers last season, but it was not exactly a roaring success. He was below 50 percent in terms of shot attempts and expected goals percentage, with the Flyers getting outscored 45-29 with Atkinson on the ice during five-on-five play. Those were atypical results for him, but he is also a 35-year-old winger who had just missed an entire season. Coming back from that is not at all easy. Will it go any better for Atkinson in Tampa Bay? He is a seven-time 20-goal scorer who, at his best, is a strong skater capable of playing in all situations. To his credit, even if his offensive production slipped, Atkinson was still a reliable penalty killer last season. Atkinson has a finisher’s touch around the net and knows how to get himself in position to score. The question, at this stage of his career, is if Atkinson is still capable of being that player. Indications from last season would put that in doubt, so projections for Atkinson should be relatively modest, along the lines of 15-20 goals and 35 points. That might not sound like a lot, but Atkinson has only exceeded that point total once since 2018-2019.

Michael Eyssimont

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	14	26	0.32

A late bloomer who did not stick in the National Hockey League until he was 26, Eyssimont had a solid showing in a depth role for Tampa Bay last season. Eyssimont earned his way into the league by playing a hard game which includes hitting and dropping the gloves when a middleweight bout is required. Eyssimont recorded 135 hits to go with 104 penalty minutes and six fights in 2023-2024. His contributions are not limited to that, however. He had 11 goals and 25 points, despite a shooting percentage of 7.4 percent, which is on the low end for forwards. Eyssimont’s shot rate of 9.27 shots per 60 minutes was the same as Nikita Kucherov, so he is providing plenty of value on the lower half of the Lighting’s forward depth chart. At the same time, he has had modest success offensively. His top AHL season saw him produce 42 points in 58 games and he had 39 points in 39 games during his last season at St. Cloud State. With a limited track record in the NHL, it’s probably reasonable to expect similar production to last season, with about 10 goals and 25 points from Eyssimont in 2024-2025.

Conor Sheary

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	11	17	28	0.36

A diminutive winger who has carved out a solid career, Sheary has scored 15 goals in a season four times in his career. His production fell off a cliff in his first season with the Lightning, managing just four goals and 15 points in 57 games. He played 11:06 per game, his lowest average time on ice since his rookie season in 2015-2016. Sheary also saw his shot rate, which was already modest at 1.88 per game in 2022-2023, drop to 0.88 per game in 2023-2024, and that is just not enough to hold down a regular role in the top nine. Although his offensive game was well off of his usual pace, Sheary’s possession numbers were just under 50 percent. While that’s hardly ideal, it’s not disastrous, either. Sheary’s most common linemates last season were Nick Paul and Michael Eyssimont, and he should have an opportunity to at least start the season in Tampa Bay’s top nine again, but if 32-year-old Sheary’s production stays the same, surely the Lighting would seek out better alternatives. While he has contributed 30 points or more five times in his career, 25-30 points would be a reasonable expectation for Sheary in 2024-2025.

DEFENCE

Victor Hedman

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	13	57	70	0.89

Just when it looked like Hedman’s game might be slipping, after a relatively down season in 2022-2023, the towering 33-year-old blueliner bounced back with a stellar year, putting up 76 points in 78 games and seeing his possession numbers move back in the right direction. Hedman also resumed his spot on the Lightning’s first power play unit, and he had 31 power play points, up from 14 the season before. Hedman has finished in the top seven of Norris Trophy voting in eight of the past nine seasons, a perennial contender every year. Hedman skates so well for such a large man. He has a powerful stride that swallows up so much ice and it allows him to join the rush on offense and take away space in the defensive zone. Since 2018-2019, Hedman has 364 points in 421 games, ranking second among defencemen, behind only Roman Josi. His 154 power play points in that time is the highest among all defencemen, so with the Lightning moving out Mikhail Sergachev in a trade with Utah, Hedman should be more comfortable as the No. 1 option on Tampa Bay’s power play. That makes it likely that Hedman will put up elite numbers, something like 70 points would be a fair expectation.

Ryan McDonagh

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	3	25	28	0.37

When the Lightning traded McDonagh to the Nashville Predators following the 2021-2022 season, he was clearly not happy. His first season with the Predators was somewhat of a struggle, but he was back in fine form last season, which is rather impressive for a guy who is now 35 years old. He remains a strong skater and plays with competitive fire even though he tends to play a very clean game. Not only was McDonagh’s defensive game more typical last season, but he finished with 32 points, his most since the 2018-2019 campaign. His most common partner was Roman Josi, which certainly helps, and the Predators outscored opponents 29-15 during five-on-five play with McDonagh and Josi on the ice. Last season marked 13 consecutive seasons in which McDonagh has logged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game and given the strong results, he will surely play a significant role in Tampa Bay, albeit maybe not with one of the premier offensive defencemen as his partner. He would certainly be capable of playing with Hedman, if needed, but McDonagh will likely be counted on to anchor another pairing. McDonagh can be expected to deliver 25-30 points, along with at least 130 blocked shots now that he is back in Tampa Bay for the 2024-2025 season.

J.J. Moser

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	6	24	30	0.37

Acquired from the Utah Hockey Club in the deal that sent Sergachev to Utah, Moser is a 24-year-old defenceman who has shown some promise through three NHL seasons. He is a smooth puckhandler who anticipates the play, can skate well and keeps the puck moving in the right direction. He is nimble on his feet and is competitive, but also not huge, so Moser can get overpowered in some situations. Nevertheless, he steadily continued to get better through his first three seasons and his situation in Tampa Bay is likely to offer much better support. With a stronger supporting cast, the Lightning should be able to deploy Moser in better situations that will increase his likelihood of having success. On the other hand, that stronger supporting cast could make it more difficult for Moser to even earn second unit power play time with his new team, considering that Darren Raddysh already has enjoyed some modest success with the Lightning last season. Moser has shown enough skill that he could get an opportunity to play on Tampa Bay’s second power play unit and that does offer some potential for his point production in 2024-2025. Based on his production to this point, 25-30 points would be the most reasonable expectation, but he has potential for more, too.

Darren Raddysh

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	6	22	28	0.34

A 28-year-old right-shot puck-moving defenceman coming off his first season in the National Hockey League, Raddysh took a long time to make it to the league but established that he can be a solid contributor when given the chance. After playing for Erie in the Ontario Hockey League for five seasons, Raddysh spent five more seasons in the American Hockey League, split between Rockford and Hartford, then he joined the Lighting and in his first two seasons with the organization, he played in 111 AHL games and 21 NHL games. It was fair, at that point, to believe that his window for an NHL career was closing. However, he did play six playoff games for the Lightning in 2022-2023 and showed well enough to earn a spot on the 2023-2024 roster, then he played in every game and ranked second among Lightning defencemen in points. Raddysh is not a punishing force on the blue line, but he is an intelligent player who makes a crisp first pass. He handles the puck like a veteran pro, even if much of his pro experience is outside the NHL. It appears that Raddysh has secured his position in Tampa Bay and can be expected to play a secondary role on the Tampa Bay blueline. He may have to compete with Moser for power play time on the second unit, so that could complicate his projections for the 2024-2025 season. That uncertainty makes it more reasonable to expect 25-30 points from Raddysh in the upcoming campaign.

GOAL

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
62	33	21	8	4	0.913	2.68

Almost every team in the NHL has undergone at least one major goaltending change since the Tampa Bay Lightning won their first of two back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021. The Lightning, though, appear poised to continue running it back until Andrei Vasilevskiy finally crumbles into a pile of dust; barring any major roster changes at the last minute, the Atlantic Division powerhouse will once again start their season with Vasilevskiy sitting as their one and only starting goaltender. The Lightning boast one of the most barren goaltending cupboards in the entire NHL, with only backup Jonas Johansson and minor leaguer Matt Tomkins signed to NHL deals behind the team’s Vezina and Conn Smythe winner.

This strategy has yet to fail them thus far, but it’s becoming harder and harder to feel confident that things will go well in net for Tampa Bay as Vasilevskiy suffers more and more wear and tear over the years. He remains one of the NHL’s most impressive instinctual minds, reading opponents at an elite level even on his worst days. But after playing nearly 500 regular season games in just 10 NHL seasons - only eight of which were spent fully at the NHL level - fatigue is clearly starting to settle in. It’s hard to consider Vasilevskiy a sure thing at this point, and Tampa Bay likely knows it - they just lack the cap flexibility to do much about it.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Sean Monahan moves to Winnipeg, Troy Terry is streaking, Jonathan Quick is earning more playing time, Nazem Kadri is leading the way for Calgary, Dylan Cozens is starting to heat up in Buffalo, and much, much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 09 Feb 2024 20:21:44 +0000

Troy Terry (61) (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire),

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Sean Monahan moves to Winnipeg, Troy Terry is streaking, Jonathan Quick is earning more playing time, Nazem Kadri is leading the way for Calgary, Dylan Cozens is starting to heat up in Buffalo, and much, much more!

#1 The Winnipeg Jets dipped into the trade market to acquire centre Sean Monahan from the Montreal Canadiens. Monahan, healthy after years of having hip problems, has been enjoying a renaissance. He had put up 11 points (2 G, 9 A) in his last seven games with Montreal and while he has not recorded a point in his first two games with the Jets, Monahan does have six shots on goal and seems like he should be a reasonable option as the No. 2 centre in Winnipeg.

#2 With Monahan departing, Montreal is in dire straits down the middle of the ice behind captain Nick Suzuki. With Christian Dvorak and Kirby Dach out for the season and Alex Newhook still recovering from injury, Montreal has Jake Evans slotted into the second line centre spot, with AHL call-ups Brandon Gignac and Lucas Condotta filling out the bottom half of the centre depth chart. Evans has 14 points (2 G, 12 A) in 50 games, which is not exactly prime offensive production from a player who is already averaging a career high 15:45 of ice time per game.

#3 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry started slowly this season, scoring 13 points in his first 24 games, and that included a four-point game against Arizona on November 1. He has since picked up the pace and goes into Friday’s action riding a six-game point streak during which he has produced 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 19 shots on goal. That’s a small sample, but the shot rate is encouraging. Terry averaged a career high 2.69 shots on goal per game last season and is sitting on 2.51 shots per game this season, so lifting his average up over three per game counts as progress and makes his production more sustainable.

#4 A bizarre goaltending season continues to wreak havoc for fantasy hockey managers. With Igor Shesterkin slumping, to the tune of a .863 save percentage in 10 games since the calendar flipped to 2024, the Rangers are now giving more starts to Jonathan Quick. For all of his career accolades, Quick is now 38 years old and had worse than average results in four of the previous five seasons. This season, he has a .919 save percentage and a 12-4-2 record in 19 appearances. With Shesterkin slumping, Quick is shockingly taking on a bigger role for the Blueshirts.

#5 While the season appears to be headed south for the Calgary Flames as a team, centre Nazem Kadri has picked up his production after a relatively slow start to the campaign. In his past 20 games, Kadri has 21 points (8 G, 13 A) and 67 shots on goal and with Elias Lindholm traded, Kadri becomes even more important as Calgary’s No. 1 centre.

#6 Following a breakthrough 2022-2023 season, Buffalo Sabres centre Dylan Cozens has not been as productive this season. However, with nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 23 shots on goal in his past eight games, Cozens is starting to look more like the rising star that he was a year ago. He is getting first unit power play time right now but has just five power play points this season, so that could be an area to increase potential point production.

#7 The goals are not coming as easily for Washington this season, but centre Dylan Strome remains a viable fantasy hockey option, at least for consideration in deeper leagues. Since December 30, he has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 34 shots on goal in 16 games. With Evgeny Kuznetsov in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, Strome is the most established scoring centre on the Capitals roster by a healthy margin and is naturally centering the top line between Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson.

#8 In his past 20 games, Philadelphia Flyers winger Joel Farabee has put up 21 points (6 G, 15 A) while registering 53 shots on goal. Skating on a line with Morgan Frost and Travis Konecny, in addition getting first unit power play time, is working for Farabee, who ranks 25th in the league with 35 even strength points. Farabee’s even strength production has been outstanding, but if he can become a factor on the power play, he could push towards a point per game scoring pace.

#9 Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Mikhail Sergachev suffered a broken leg in Wednesday’s loss at the New York Rangers, in his first game back after missing 17. Sergachev’s absence does open the door for Darren Raddysh to remain in a more significant role on the Lightning blueline. Raddysh has contributed eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 19 shots on goal in his past 12 games. He has played nearly 21 minutes per game over his past 20 games, the 27-year-old making himself a fixture on the Lightning blueline in his first full NHL season.

#10 While he could stand to put more pucks on net, Detroit Red Wings winger Lucas Raymond has contributed 15 points (3 G, 12 A) in his past 15 games, despite managing a modest 18 shots on goal. He is reaping the rewards of a high on-ice shooting percentage, 11.1 percent, and that is likely unsustainable, though riding with Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin on Detroit’s top line should help to keep Raymond’s percentages at least above average.

#11 With Jack Eichel still out of the lineup for the Vegas Golden Knights, they can be thankful that other centres have stepped up to fill the void. Chandler Stephenson has contributed 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 22 shots on goal in the past 10 games and Nicolas Roy has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in his past nine games. Since January 1, Roy is averaging 4.05 points per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, which is the best rate in the entire league for players that have played at least 100 five-on-five minutes. In Stephenson’s case, this re-emergence has come following a stretch during which he managed just two points (1 G, 1 A) in 12 games.

#12 Seattle Kraken right winger Jordan Eberle has had trouble getting on track this season but is making progress lately. In his past seven games, Eberle has put up nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 14 shots on goal. He is skating on a line with Tomas Tatar and Jared McCann and they have had some success. McCann has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 26 shots on goal in his past 10 games, while Tatar has four points (2 G, 2 A) in his past five games.

#13 In his second full season with the Buffalo Sabres, winger JJ Peterka has been the leading goal scorer for the team, which is a credit to Peterka, who has 18 goals after scoring seven points (5 G, 2 A) with 21 shots on goal in his past six games, but it’s also something of an indictment of more established scorers like Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch, who have not produced to the levels that they have in previous seasons. Peterka is skating on a line with Dylan Cozens and rookie winger Zach Benson, a trio full of potential and a group that should get plenty of ice time for the rest of the season.

#14 There is not a lot to bring excitement to the San Jose Sharks’ season and it is rare to bring forth Sharks players for potential fantasy value. With that disclaimer out of the way, managers in deep leagues should keep tabs on William Eklund, the 21-year-old who was the seventh pick in the 2021 Draft. Eklund has six points (1 G, 5 A) in his past five games and is getting some reps at centre. He is also getting significant ice time, including first unit power play time, playing more than 20 minutes in four of his past seven contests.

#15 It has been a challenging season in Columbus, too. Johnny Gaudreau leads the Blue Jackets with just 32 points in 50 games. Patrik Laine is in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, and star rookie Adam Fantilli is out for two months with a lacerated calf. One bright spot has been the development of Yegor Chinakhov, the 23-year-old winger who was a surprise first-round pick in 2020. Chinakhov has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal in his past seven games and is up to 14 goals on the season. Like Eklund, Chinakhov is more of a concern for those in deep or dynasty leagues.

#16 There are few players that are worthy of fantasy consideration that play as little as Detroit Red Wings right winger Daniel Sprong. He was one of the most efficient players in the league with Seattle last season, scoring 46 points (21 G, 25 A) in 66 games while playing just 11:25 per game. When he signed with Detroit, the expectation was that Sprong would see a bump in ice time but, for the most part that hasn’t materialized. Even so, he has put up 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 38 shots on goal in his past 13 games, while playing just 11:46 per game, since the calendar flipped to 2024.

#17 A defenceman who scored a career-high 20 points as a rookie in 2017-2018, Jan Rutta is suddenly contributing offensively for the San Jose Sharks. Not only does Rutta have six points (3 G, 3 A) in the past six games, but he is averaging 22:45 of ice time per game over that stretch. This is a more significant role for the veteran defender, but it’s also for a terrible team and he does not have a significant role on the power play, so maybe don’t rush to the waiver wire immediately, just consider him as a potential short-term option if injuries hit your blueline.

#18 The Jordan Binnington experience can be a bit of a roller coaster, with ups and downs, thrills, and spills, but when he is on, the St. Louis Blues netminder can be a difference maker. In 10 games since the Christmas break, for example, Binnington has a 6-3-1 record with a .928 save percentage. That will play in any league and makes Binnington a much more appealing fantasy option.

#19 Although it is difficult for any goaltender to put up great numbers in San Jose, Mackenzie Blackwood is doing his level best. In nine games since the Christmas break, the 27-year-old netminder has a 4-3-1 record with a .923 save percentage. It would be only the deepest of leagues that could justify taking a Sharks goaltender, but Blackwood is at least making himself a viable fantasy option and the way that goaltending has fluctuated throughout the league this season, it’s always worth considering one that is on a good run.

#20 Among players to play at least 150 minutes in all situations since January 1, the leaders for individual expected goals per 60 minutes are: Zach Hyman (2.64), Dmitri Voronkov (1.91), T.J. Oshie (1.89), Matthew Tkachuk (1.83), Chris Kreider (1.79), Kyle Palmieri (1.77), Yanni Gourde (1.71), John Tavares (1.64), David Pastrnak (1.62), and Joe Pavelski (1.62). A few things stand out. First, is that Hyman is getting way more chances than anyone else in the league but players like Voronkov, Oshie, Palmieri, and Gourde are all available in quite a few leagues. Fantasy hockey rewards actual goals rather than expected goals, but the process of generating expected goals should have a payoff with real goals at some point, too.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Player Profiles + Team Preview – Scott Cullen, Goaltending – Catherine Silverman — Mon, 09 Oct 2023 19:01:32 +0000

Review: For the first time since 2018-2019, the Lightning did not reach the Stanley Cup Final, losing in the first round to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Tampa Bay had 98 points and was better than average in terms of possession, controlling 51.7% of score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts and 52.2% of expected goals, but better than average also revealed signs of vulnerability. Even so, the Lightning averaged 3.45 goals per game, which ranked eighth, and they allowed 3.10 goals against per game, which ranked 14^th. None of this indicates massive problems, but it does reflect a team that might not be at the same level as when they were making annual trips to the Stanley Cup Final.

What’s Changed? Keeping the Stanley Cup core gets increasingly difficult over time and the Lightning have been forced to make roster decisions based on salary cap commitments. This summer, that meant watching Alex Killorn, Corey Perry, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare leave as free agents while trading Ross Colton and Pat Maroon. Trying to fill those holes inexpensively, Tampa Bay brought in Conor Sheary, Josh Archibald, Luke Glendening, and Logan Brown, which would seem to be a downgrade, but it might also open the door for some prospects to challenge for regular roles, something that has not happened a lot with the Lightning in recent seasons. On defense, veteran Calvin de Haan adds solid depth to a unit that has much more continuity.

What would success look like? After reaching three straight Stanley Cup Finals, winning two, the Lightning are hardly going to settle for something less than a Cup Finals appearance, even if that is increasingly less likely. They still have elite talent, and the core pieces of those Stanley Cup teams. However, every loss of supporting players like Killorn, Colton, and Ondrej Palat the previous summer makes it that much harder for the Lightning to stay on top. The stars are the ones that drive results, but Cup winners have a strong supporting cast and it’s fair to wonder if the Lightning even warrant legitimate Stanley Cup hopes given the quality of their current supporting cast.

What could go wrong? While Tampa Bay appears to have too much talent to flop entirely, with a lot of key players on the north side of 30, there is the possibility that injuries could loom large for Tampa Bay. Certainly, any injury to goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy would be a concern because the Lightning continue the shop the bargain bin for backup goaltenders, landing on Jonas Johansson this season, but if injuries hit Nikita Kucherov, or Steven Stamkos, or Victor Hedman – core players who are all over 30 – that could present a significant challenge. These are first-world hockey problems, worrying about what might happen if more than one of your superstars gets injured.

Top Breakout Candidate: The Lightning do not have unproven players in prime positions so any breakout expectations should be tempered. However, winger Michael Eyssimont is worth watching. He split last season between Winnipeg, San Jose, and Tampa Bay, managing 15 points in 54 games, but he also had 107 hits and 124 shots on goal. That physical play is likely going to earn Eyssimont a regular spot in Tampa Bay’s top nine, but if he starts scoring on more than four percent of his shots, he could really start to provide some value. The opportunity is there for Eyssimont to not only secure a full-time NHL job, but for him to play a substantial role.

Forwards

Nikita Kucherov

Coming off his third career season with more than 100 points, Kucherov is a premier scoring winger, an elite setup man in every respect. His creativity and vision are special, and he plays with a confidence that allows him to make plays that are only possible at the very top end of the league. He also plays with a nastiness that gives him a competitive edge. Since 2017-2018, Kucherov has 495 points in 359 games, his 1.38 points per game ranking second behind only Connor McDavid. He has scored 160 points in 142 career playoff games, so he does not shrink away when the games matter most. As great as Kucherov is, his 11.1% shooting percentage last season was his lowest since his rookie season in 2013-2014 and his defensive play is not exactly going to earn him Selke Trophy votes. When he is firing on all cylinders, though, Kucherov is too much for most defenders to handle. For example, from November 17th through December 17th last season, he tallied 24 points (5 G, 19 A) in just 14 games. While Connor McDavid has to be the favorite to lead the league in scoring in 2023-2024, Kucherov is as worthy of consideration as any other contender for the Art Ross Trophy.

Brayden Point

An established star who has been an integral part of Tampa Bay’s playoff success, Point erupted for the most productive season of his career, scoring 51 goals and 95 points, both of which were career highs. He scored on a career high 21.7% of his shots, while registering a career high 2.87 shots per game, so it is not as though Point is a high-volume shooter, but he has always been a high percentage finisher, scoring on better than 15.0% of his shots in each of the past five seasons. Point has a quick release and makes the most of his role in the bumper position on the Tampa Bay power play, scoring 20 of his 51 goals last season with the man advantage. Playing with Kucherov is obviously a great spot to be for a player who can pull the trigger like Point, and he finished last season with 53 points (28 G, 25 A) in his last 42 games. It is fascinating to see how productive Point has been in the playoffs, with 82 points (40 G, 42 A) in 82 playoff games, and how he has had two seasons with 90-plus points, but then has seasons with point totals in the 50s and 60s. That does suggest some caution when looking ahead for Point, but an 80-point season should be well within his grasp.

Steven Stamkos

At 33 years old, Stamkos continues to churn out points, putting up 84 points (34 G, 50 A) in 81 games last season. He did record 35 points on the power play and his possession numbers during five-on-five play showed signs of slipping. His shot release is one of the most dangerous in the league, but it is reasonable to wonder if there might be some decline on the way given his age and the injuries that he has endured during a career of more than 1,003 games during which he has scored 515 goals. Stamkos had an 11-game point streak in January, during which he had 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 46 shots on goal. If he would keep generating shots like that, the goals would never stop. However, he is still in a position to contribute big offensive numbers and that means that 35 goals and 80-plus points is within a reasonable range. The supporting cast in Tampa Bay is part of the calculation, too. It would be easier for Stamkos to keep producing at an elite level if he always played with Kucherov and Point, but he spent significant time with Alex Killorn and Nick Paul, and Anthony Cirelli, too.

Brandon Hagel

An energy winger in Chicago who has thrived since arriving in Tampa Bay where he has been playing in a scoring role, Hagel set career highs with 30 goals and 64 points last season, and he makes the most of the great opportunity to play with Kucherov and Point. Hagel has good speed in transition and is not shy about getting to the front of the net when the Lightning have control of the puck in the offensive zone. Considering the way that Kucherov distributes the puck, that is a good idea. Because he is not necessarily the play driver on that number one line, Hagel’s production can fluctuate. In the last 16 games of the regular season, he had 14 points (7 G, 7 A), even though he had a seven-game scoreless streak in the midst of that span of games. Hagel is an interesting player to project because he has scored on 16.1% of his shots in his career, which is rather high, but he has played 211 games, which is not a huge sample. On the other hand, he plays mostly with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, so that could contribute to creating better chances and higher shooting percentages. He may not match last season’s output, but 25-30 goals and 55-60 points should still be within range for Hagel.

Anthony Cirelli

At his best, Cirelli is a premier defensive center who can contribute on the offensive end, too. He missed the start of the season due to shoulder surgery and had a 20-game stretch during which he managed just four points, but he also had six points (3 G, 3 A) in six playoff games. Even with some ups and downs during the season, the Lightning outscored opponents 35-22 with Cirelli on the ice for five-on-five play. Cirelli has twice finished in the top five in Selke voting and, when healthy, the 26-year-old is a legitimate contender for the award as the league’s top defensive forward. Strangely enough, given his earned reputation, Cirelli was at least as effective offensively as he was defensively last season, which is not the case when he is giving his peak defensive performance, but starting the season late likely didn’t help matters. Cirelli can reasonably be expected to put up 35-40 points, though there is potential for more. If he is healthy for a full season and play a lot with Stamkos, for example, that might offer better scoring potential.

Nick Paul

Anchoring Tampa Bay’s third line, Paul scored a career high 17 goals and tied his career high with 32 points. He has good size and plays a physical game in addition to winning 53.7% of his faceoffs. While he is a strong defensive presence, Paul’s offensive game is limited, and that puts a ceiling on what kind of impact he can have overall. At the same time, Paul is exactly the kind of big-body physically strong player that the Lightning want on their third line and has played more than 16 minutes per game for three straight seasons, so he has established himself firmly in this role. Paul got off to a sensational start last season, producing 18 points (11 G, 7 A) in his first 23 games, but he followed that up with eight points (5 G, 3 A) in his next 30 games. His straight-ahead game has definite benefits, but it does contribute to his uninspiring offensive numbers. Paul should continue in the same range as his recent seasons, so somewhere between 30 and 35 points is a reasonable expectation.

Tanner Jeannot

After an impressive rookie season in 2021-2022, when he scored 24 goals, Jeannot was one of the most snakebit players in the league last season, finishing with six goals on 107 shots in 76 games. The Lightning paid a steep price to acquire Jeannot and while he managed just four points (1 G, 3 A) in 20 games for Tampa Bay, he also suffered a high ankle sprain late in the season and tried to play through it. He is as strong as an ox and that powerful base is the cornerstone of his game. The 26-year-old winger has recorded 608 hits in the past two seasons, 90 more than any other forward over that period. Jeannot is probably a decent buy-low option going into 2023-2024, because it would be difficult to struggle to that degree again – he had a 38-game goalless drought! – and he is due for percentages to swing back in his favor. A bounce-back season for Jeannot could still mean as few as 30-35 points, which would be a big jump from the 18 points he had in 76 games in 2022-2023, but maybe with good health, he could climb the depth chart and offer more than that.

Conor Sheary

An undersized winger who filled a secondary scoring role in Washington the past two seasons, Sheary could have an opportunity to play a quality complementary role in Tampa Bay. Playing more than 15 minutes per game, Sheary has put up 80 points (34 G, 46 A) in 153 games across the past two years, but his possession numbers have been on the wrong side of the ledger, too. He somehow finished with 37 points despite a massive slump. In a 29-game span from January 8 through March19, Sheary had three points (1 G, 2 A). There may be an opportunity for Sheary to fit in a top-six role in Tampa Bay, which would provide a path to continued offensive production. With quality forwards in Tampa Bay, Sheary should still be able to find his way into the range of 35 to 40 points.

Michael Eyssimont

By the time the puck drops on the 2023-2024 season, Eyssimont will be 27 years old and will have 55 NHL games under his belt, 54 of which came last season when he played for Winnipeg, San Jose, and Tampa Bay, so he is a late bloomer to be sure. What makes Eyssimont more interesting than the typical 15-point winger is that, in his small sample of NHL games, he has shown that he can generate shots. Among players that appeared in at least 500 five-on-five minutes Eyssimont ranked ninth with 11.06 shots per 60 minutes. He scored on just 4.0% of those shots, but generating the shots in the first place creates the possibility that his production could get a boost merely with better luck around the net. While he does not have notable size, he plays a physical game and recorded 107 hits in 54 games, so he has a way to earn his spot in the lineup. Although Eyssimont does not have a lot of NHL experience, he has a legit chance to stick in Tampa Bay’s top nine. He has 51 points in 67 AHL games over the past two seasons and could have a chance to produce 25-30 points as a full-time NHLer.

Defense

Victor Hedman

For the first time since 2015-2016, Hedman was not a finalist for the Norris Trophy, and it was justified because his defensive play had slipped compared to previous years. Hedman was still a positive influence on the Lightning but was not the dominant play driving force that had been. He has such rare physical tools, to be able to skate and handle the puck at his size, that Hedman could very easily return to Norris Trophy form, but it bears watching. He is 32 years old and while he is far from finished, it is possible that there is some decline from the top tier elite status that he has been occupying for so long. 2022-2023 was the first time in Hedman’s career that the Lightning fared better in terms of shot attempts when he was off the ice. It was the second time in the past three seasons that the Lightning were better when judged by expected goals with Hedman off the ice. For all of those questions, it can’t be ignored that Hedman has been an elite defender for a long time, so it would be premature to write him off. Losing power play time to Mikhail Sergachev doesn’t help Hedman’s output, but he remains capable of producing 55-60 points.

Mikhail Sergachev

With Hedman’s production slipping, Sergachev stepped up and became the quarterback on the first power play unit for Tampa Bay, scoring 27 of his career-high 64 points with the man advantage. At 25 years old, Sergachev is in his prime, and played a career-high 23:49 per game last season. Not only is he a strong skater who can handle the puck and unleash a heavy shot from the point, but he is sturdy and physical. Sergachev was one of 22 defensemen to record more than 125 hits and 125 blocked shots last season. From that group, Darnell Nurse and Moritz Seider were the only ones with more than 40 points and Sergachev was 20 points clear of both. He finished the season with a scoring flourish, producing 22 points (3 G, 19 A) with 45 shots on goal in his last 18 games. If he is going to put up those numbers, he will continue to hold greater responsibility on the Tampa Bay blueline. Since he is in his prime and did not benefit from lofty percentages last season, another 60-point campaign is a reasonable target for Sergachev.

Nick Perbix

A sixth-round pick who played at St. Cloud State, Perbix was not highly touted, and the right-shot defender landed in the NHL as a 24-year-old rookie last season. From the moment he arrived, though, he did not look out of place and delivered quality third-pair minutes. He is a strong passer who moves the puck up the ice and, generally, the Lightning had success with Perbix on the ice, out-shooting and outscoring the opposition during five-on-five play. The next step is to see if he can handle more responsibility, potentially into a top-four role on the Tampa Bay blueline. With more ice time, in a full season, Perbix could see his point production jump to the range of 25 to 30 points, but he has such a limited track record that he might end up on the third pairing and unlikely to even match last season’s production.

Erik Cernak

A 26-year-old thumper on the Tampa Bay defense, Cernak recorded a career-high 209 hits then got knocked out in the first game of the playoffs thanks to a high hit by Maple Leafs winger Michael Bunting. Cernak has limitations with the puck on his stick, but he is a strong skater and plays such a hard, competitive game that he still offers plenty of value in a top-four shutdown role and has consistently played more than 19 minutes per game throughout his career. One other thing that has been a consistent factor in Cernak’s career is injuries. He played a career-high 70 games last season, so his hard play comes with a price, and while that tends to happen to most physical defensemen, it is not so common for a defenseman in his mid-20s to be sidelined as frequently as Cernak. While he has yet to record a 20-point season in the NHL, Cernak has a chance to get there if he stays healthy. Hits and, to a lesser degree, blocked shots are the counting stats that are going to enhance Cernak’s value.

Goaltending

Andrei Vasilevskiy

The Andrei Vasilevskiy story, by this point in his career, is very much rinse-and-repeat. Vasilevskiy might not be the league’s hottest topic anymore, with shiny new names circulating the Vezina conversation alongside him each year and younger franchises (including one just downstate from Tampa in metro Miami) contending for the cup, but he remains one of the top ten goaltenders year-over-year with no signs of slowing down. It’s not a matter of if he’ll do well, but how well he’ll do; he might not win the Vezina or the Cup, but he’ll make the playoffs and keep his team in games with very little evidence that he’ll do anything to disappoint.

The Lightning almost certainly know that they’ll need to do something about their goaltending situation at some point in the coming years, but they also seem to know that there’s no rush – so they seem content to ride with Vasilevskiy while prospect Hugo Alnefelt develops in the AHL. Their only change this off-season was to move on from a now-underperforming Brian Elliott as the rarely-used number two, instead signing Jonas Johansson as their number two. That could be a sign that Alnefelt is being prepped to get his NHL look, given how poorly Johansson has performed at the NHL level in the past few seasons. But ultimately, there’s not much about Tampa’s upcoming season that warrants discussion beyond reiterating that Vasilevskiy is still their best shot at success; with his dynamic drives and quick hands, the only thing that could slow the starter down is physical fatigue. At some point, he has to hit a wall – but he hasn’t yet, so Tampa seems content to address that problem when it pops up down the road.

Projected starts: 65-70

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Did the Leafs add enough to finally get over the first-round playoff hump?

Scott Cullen — Fri, 14 Apr 2023 16:05:34 +0000

TAMPA, FL - APRIL 11: Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Brandon Hagel (38) and Toronto Maple Leafs right wing William Nylander (88) during the NHL Hockey match between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs on April 11th 2023 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)

For the second straight season there is a solid case to be made that the Toronto Maple Leafs are better than the Tampa Bay Lightning. Not by a lot, necessarily, but the Maple Leafs finished higher in the standings, with a better goal differential, and superior puck possession numbers.

Is that going to be enough for the Maple Leafs to finally get over the first-round playoff hump for the first time since 2003-2004?

Forwards

Auston Matthews battled through a wrist injury and still finished with 40 goals, after scoring 60 goals last season. He seemed to be in fine form in the latter stages of the year, putting up 14 goals and 28 points with 114 shots on goal in his last 22 games. If the Leafs are going to win the series, they will need Matthews and Mitch Marner to elevate their play for the postseason. Both have managed 33 points in 39 career playoff contests and that’s respectable, but Toronto needs even more from their star forwards. It is fair to wonder about the Leafs’ scoring depth. William Nylander had his first 40-goal season and John Tavares remains productive, but there is a thinner cast of productive forwards behind the Big Four.

Ryan O’Reilly adds something to the lineup when healthy, and both Calle Jarnkrok and Michael Bunting have proven to be useful complementary pieces, but someone in the supporting cast needs to step up. Maybe it will be rookie Matthew Knies, who has recorded one assist in three games since joining the Leafs after his University of Minnesota season ended with a loss in the national championship game.

Tampa Bay has elite talent with a track record of playoff success. Nikita Kucherov has 93 points over the past three postseasons, most in the league by a long shot. Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon ranks second with 64 and Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point ranks third with 61. Steven Stamkos has 33 points in 47 games across the past three playoffs, missing most of the 2019-2020 Stanley Cup run. With three straight trips to the Final, Tampa Bay has received ample secondary scoring.

Alex Killorn and Anthony Cirelli have been contributors throughout Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup runs while Ross Colton, Brandon Hagel, Nick Paul, and Corey Perry have joined the fray more recently. The expectation was that Tanner Jeannot might offer some more toughness and scoring depth after he was acquired from Nashville, but a late season lower-body injury could prevent him from being ready for the start of the playoffs.

Defense

For all of the changes that the Maple Leafs have made to their blueline in recent seasons, there are still going to be questions about how strong this group is heading into the playoffs. Toronto ranks seventh in shots against and 11th in expected goals against per 60 minutes, but the results since the trade deadline are not quite as encouraging. Since adding Jake McCabe, Luke Schenn, and Erik Gustafsson, the Leafs rank 18^th and 20^th, respectively, in those categories. McCabe and T.J. Brodie have formed an effective shutdown pair while Mark Giordano and Justin Holl are competent, but there are legitimate concerns about the performance of Morgan Rielly, whose ice time has dropped under 20 minutes per game over the past month, and Luke Schenn, who has been getting caved in consistently since returning to Toronto. Timothy Liljegren offers a steady alternative, but only if head coach Sheldon Keefe includes him in the lineup.

When the Lightning have been making their runs to the Stanley Cup Final, they have had a strong defensive record and this season has revealed some vulnerability on that front, with higher-than-average rates of shots and expected goals against. Mikhail Sergachev busted out with the best season of his career, scoring 64 points while playing nearly 24 minutes per game.

For the first time in a long time Victor Hedman was not a standout on the Tampa Bay blueline, showing more defensive vulnerability, but he has produced 59 points in 71 games during Tampa Bay’s last three playoff runs, so he could easily be a difference maker once again. Erik Cernak and Ian Cole are effective shot suppressors while Nicklaus Perbix and Darren Raddysh have been seeing more regular action than Zach Bogosian. Overall, though, this group represents an area of legitimate concern for Tampa Bay.

Goaltending

With Matt Murray injured, Toronto has a lot riding on Ilya Samsonov, a 26-year-old who had the best season of his career, posting a .919 save percentage while starting a career-high 40 games. However, he has modest playoff experience, with just one win in seven career postseason starts. Any goaltender that achieves playoff success has to start somewhere.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is the standard bearer among active goaltenders for playoff performance. Not only has he started 71 games in the past three postseasons, but he has delivered a .928 save percentage, which is tops among goaltenders to appear in at least 10 games. With Tampa Bay’s suspect defense, the Lightning will need an epic performance from the 2021 Conn Smythe Trophy winner. That is not out of the question, but it is the first time in a while that Tampa Bay has been so dependent on its star netminder.

Special Teams

Given the top tier talent on these teams, it comes as no surprise that both clubs have fared well with the man advantage. Toronto ranks fourth with 9.25 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play and Tampa Bay is close behind in fifth with 9.10 goals per 60.

Maple Leafs captain John Tavares tallied 18 of his 36 goals on the power play and Auston Matthews added 13. Tampa Bay’s top triggermen on the power play were Brayden Point, who scored 20 of his 51 goals with the man advantage, and Steven Stamkos, who added 14.

Toronto’s penalty killing is a strength, ranking fifth with 5.72 goals against per 60 minutes during four-on-five play, thanks largely to allowing the lowest rate of high danger shot attempts in those circumstances. That does offer Toronto an edge over Tampa Bay, which ranks 15^th with 7.21 goals against per 60 during four-on-five play.

Conclusion

The Maple Leafs were right there with the Lightning in last year’s playoff matchup, ultimately losing in Game 7, but this year’s version of the Lightning is not quite as formidable. There is the possibility that the Lightning can just flip the postseason switch and be ready for another Stanley Cup run, but it looks like Tampa Bay has slipped enough that the Maple Leafs can finally earn a first-round victory. Maple Leafs in 6.