David KAMPF – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Mon, 09 Oct 2023 19:07:29 +0000

Review: With a 50-21-11 record, the Maple Leafs earned 111 points in 2022-2023, the second-highest point total, and fourth highest points percentage in franchise history. Although Toronto was mediocre in terms of shot attempts, ranking 12^th with 52.2% score-and-venue-adjusted Corsi, they did manage to have strong shot quality results, ranking sixth with 54.3% of expected goals. Toronto ranked 11^th with 3.40 goals per game, and for a team that gets criticized frequently for their defensive play, the Leafs finished fifth with 2.71 goals against per game. They also won a playoff series for the first time since 2003-2004 but losing in five games to Florida in the second round put a quick halt to any optimism generated by Toronto’s first-round victory over Tampa Bay. The Leafs have been a strong team, legitimate contenders, but their lack of postseason success looms over everything, and it will be that way until they start delivering results.

What’s Changed? The Maple Leafs replaced GM Kyle Dubas with Brad Treliving, previously of the Calgary Flames, and the Leafs did complete some tidy business in free agency, getting Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, Dylan Gambrell, and enforcer Ryan Reaves up front. They took a chance on veteran defenseman John Klingberg, whose defensive play has been plummeting in recent seasons, but has plenty of experience as a puck-moving blueliner who can quarterback a power play. There is obviously a focus on the Maple Leafs adding grit with Reaves, Bertuzzi, and Domi, though the potential offensive impact of Bertuzzi, Domi, and Klingberg, may be more valuable.

What would success look like? After so many years of losing in the first round, or not making the playoffs at all, the Maple Leafs have reached a point at which winning a playoff round is the minimum and for the season to be considered a success, that will likely require winning at least two rounds, some kind of postseason achievement that goes beyond their frequent disappointments. The good news for the Leafs is that they have the horses to do it. Whether they advance or not, there is little doubt that Toronto has enough talent to achieve more, but until they actually do it, questions will linger.

What could go wrong? It is possible that the Maple Leafs could have a great regular season, playing at an elite level, and they could still get bounced in the first round of the playoffs. That’s easy enough to imagine. If things were to really go wrong for Toronto, it would probably mean a long-term injury to Auston Matthews. It’s not as if the Leafs don’t have other valuable players, but Matthews is the premier goal-scorer that is most difficult to replace. Toronto has enough depth that it can handle some injuries, but if the injuries involve more than one of The Core Four, that could make it more difficult for Toronto to remain a playoff team.

Top Breakout Candidate: On a veteran-laden Maple Leafs team, rookie winger Matthew Knies is the player most likely to have a breakout season. Knies flashed exciting potential in his first taste of NHL action last season, with one assist in three regular-season games before adding four points in seven playoff games. He is a winger with good size and can be a real handful for opposing defenders when he is working down low in the offensive zone or along the boards. Knies may be ticketed for the third line to start the season but has the potential to fill a spot in the top six and if he does that, the rookie could have an instant impact.

Forwards

Auston Matthews

After becoming the first player to score 60 goals in a season in the prior 10 seasons during the 2021-22 season, Auston Matthews took a step back in 2022-23. He only managed 40 goals in 74 games this time while recording one fewer assist at 45. Perhaps, one could consider this a floor for the 26-year-old veteran. As he enters his eighth season, last season’s 12.2% shooting percentage is by far his career low. If he had shot his career average of 15.7% last season, he would have scored 51 goals on his 327 shots. While his shooting percentage may fluctuate, he has ranked no lower than sixth in the NHL in shots on goal per 60 among regular skaters over the last three seasons. Moreover, regression to the mean should not be the only thing driving a bounce-back year for Auston Matthews, as the addition of Tyler Bertuzzi in place of Michael Bunting offers Matthews another elite playmaker as a potential linemate at even strength, and a contributor on the powerplay. Matthews is entering the 2023-24 season with 299 regular season goals, and he does not want it to end with fewer than 350.

Mitchell Marner

Mitch Marner ended his seventh NHL season just one point shy of 100 – a feat he has not accomplished yet in his career thus far. The 26-year-old started his career exclusively known for his playmaking abilities. His shot was seen as weak, although his selection of shots brought him up to a respectable shooting percentage. In the 2021-22 season, Marner jumped to a 35-goal season, converting 15.6% of his shots on goal. Marner followed that up with another 30-goal season with a shooting percentage of 15.3%. This additional threat to opponents that Marner has crafted has brought his game to another level, securing his spot as one of the most dangerous offensive players in the game. It may have also contributed to Toronto’s ability to split the duo up at times. In the 2021 shortened season, Marner spent 84.7% of his 5-on-5 minutes with Matthews. Last season, he spent only 47.3% of his full-strength time with Auston Matthews, spending slightly more time with John Tavares and a combination of wingers. The defensive side of Marner’s game is also well-crafted, enabling Sheldon Keefe and the Maple Leafs coaching staff to use him on the penalty kill as well. He has been on the ice for 44.0% of the Maple Leafs shorthanded time over the last four seasons in games that he has played. The 2023-24 season could be the year Marner surpasses 100 points.

William Nylander

The 2022-23 season featured 19 players with 40 or more goals, and William Nylander was one of them. His 40 goals and 47 assists were career-highs, and his 82 games played was his second complete season of his career. While much of the narrative surrounding Nylander is that he is inconsistent, that only applies to his defensive effort and attention to detail. He has recorded around a point-per-game since seeing an increase in his powerplay usage in the 2021-22 season. He has also been a healthy player most of his career, missing the most time in the 2018-19 season where he held out from signing an extension until December. While his lack of injury history and consistent dual-threat offensive production should make projecting Nylander’s 2023-24 season rather easy, the addition of Tyler Bertuzzi could threaten his powerplay time and therefore his production. A demotion to the second powerplay unit would likely cost around 0.2 points per game. With Nylander’s contract expiring after this season, and with the Maple Leafs intending to re-sign him to an affordable price before he goes to unrestricted free agency, a tie for the first unit time probably goes to someone else.

John Tavares

John Tavares ended the 2022-23 regular season with 36 goals and 44 assists – the first time he cleared the 30-goal mark since his first season as a Maple Leaf in 2018-19. In a saturated Toronto market, the Maple Leafs captain is due to receive scrutiny. However, that scrutiny generally revolves around the comparison of how much he is paid relative to the value he provides on the ice. He ranked 30^th in points last season, and 42^nd the season prior, reflecting a player that is still very good. When the 2023-24 season gets underway, Tavares will be 33 years of age. The forward-thinking Maple Leafs have already begun reducing his time-on-ice over the years. Last season, he played 1.8 fewer minutes per game in all situations, and 2.1 fewer minutes per game at 5-on-5 than he did in the shortened 2019-20 season. The risk to his ice time being cut much further is the latest addition in Toronto of Tyler Bertuzzi. The Maple Leafs coaching staff may conclude that Bertuzzi is the better option at the front of the net on the first powerplay unit, forcing Tavares to win a spot at the bumper or move to the second unit. While it may be best for the team, a demotion off the first powerplay unit would hurt Tavares’ individual stats dramatically.

Tyler Bertuzzi

Tyler Bertuzzi likely entered his contract year in Detroit knowing it would be his last there. He would also miss two of his last five months with the Red Wings out with upper body injuries, the latest being a wrist injury in December. On March 2, Bertuzzi was sent to Boston to chase a Cup with the Boston Bruins. There, he would find success with David Pastrnak. His playmaking abilities from all areas of the offensive zone at even strength and on the powerplay made a dangerous Bruins offense even more dangerous. Bertuzzi was able to score four goals and 12 assists in 21 games with the Bruins as opposed to his four goals and 10 assists in 29 games with the Red Wings. With the lethal shooters that the Maple Leafs have, Bertuzzi’s gritty playmaking style will fit right in. He could be a reasonable option for the first powerplay unit, as the Bruins saw with Jake DeBrusk out of their lineup. The question surrounding Bertuzzi is how much his shooting percentage will rebound. Bertuzzi converted over 16% of his shots on goal in each season from 2018-19 thru 2021. Last season he shot only 7.5% and suffered a wrist injury. If his recent wrist injury has hampered his shooting form, the Leafs did not sign the 30-goal scorer from the 2021-22 season, but a much lesser version of Tyler Bertuzzi.

Max Domi

Following the 2019-20 season, Max Domi left Montreal for a two-year contract in Columbus. Despite the Blue Jackets team lacking forward depth, particularly at center, Domi immediately saw a two minute drop in time on ice per game. During the 2021-22 season, he was traded to the Hurricanes for their playoff run, before signing a one-year contract to be a rental again, going from Chicago to Dallas. Last season could’ve been considered a slight revival for the 5’ 10” forward, scoring 20 goals for the second time in his career. This was partially due to being a shark in a small pond, seeing a hefty amount of powerplay minutes and receiving ice time while behind on a tanking Chicago roster. His biggest weakness is his poor defensive play. This is something that caused him headaches in Columbus and could cause headaches once again with Sheldon Keefe. He is also not an individual play-driver, passing the puck to teammates too quickly at times. And his career faceoff percentage of 48.2% is far from optimal. The Maple Leafs are hoping that Domi can be an effective middle-six passenger at even strength, and a staple on their second powerplay unit. With that, he should see his minutes drop back down again this season, as well as his point total.

David Kampf

For his third season in a row, David Kampf did not miss a single game last season. He also posted another new career-high with 27 points in his 82 games. New general manager Brad Treliving must have thought so highly of the Czech forward that he signed him to a four-year extension in June, days prior to him entering unrestricted free agency. Toronto acquired Kampf from Chicago as a distressed asset in 2021, after he scored only a single goal in 56 games. The Maple Leafs turned around and used him as a staple defensive center in their bottom six. He is a smart player with efficient skating. That duo has led to his success at even strength as well as on the penalty kill. He won’t offer much offensive flare, only crossing 100 career points in his sixth season, but his health, ability to stay out of the box, effectiveness in the faceoff circle, and dependability on the defensive side of the game will keep him in the lineup for years to come. And while you shouldn’t expect too much, perhaps he has a few goals left in him this season.

Calle Jarnkrok

After eight seasons with the Nashville Predators, the Seattle Kraken selected Calle Jarnkrok in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. In his last season in Nashville, he recorded 28 points in 49 games, the highest pace of his career. As a part of an underperforming Seattle team, and a deep Calgary team that pushed him down the lineup, the Swede would fall back to 30 points in 66 games. However, when he explored free agency, Toronto showed interest, signing him to a four-year contract. With the Maple Leafs, Jarnkrok is expected to be an effective, dependable passenger to play-driving linemates. He bounced around from linemate-to-linemate last season, spending no more than 33.9% of his minutes with any forward. He spent some time alongside John Tavares and Auston Matthews with Mitch Marner, but also played down on the third line with the likes of Pierre Engvall and Alex Kerfoot. He scored 20 goals for the first time in his career last season, but he had a massive jump in shooting percentage at 18.9% compared to a career 12.5%. Will his linemates be able to keep his production high, possibly helping him break 40 points, or will he regress back this season?

Sam Lafferty

A fourth-round pick in the 2014 NHL Draft, Pennsylvania-native Sam Lafferty scrapped his way into the Pittsburgh Penguins lineup, playing 50 games in his rookie season in 2019-20. However, it was a move to the Blackhawks early in the 2021-22 season that would help Lafferty break out and make a name for himself in the league. In Chicago, Lafferty would become a regular penalty killer. After scoring four goals and an assist in 99 shorthanded minutes in Chicago last season, the Maple Leafs traded for his services for their playoff run. His breakout wasn’t just limited to his penalty killing prowess, but respectable production at even strength as well, tallying 12 goals and 15 assists in all situations. Lafferty is a speedy bottom six forward, posing a threat to opposing defensemen trying to move the play up the ice against him. His speed may also give him the opportunity to find a spot on the third line at either wing or center in the case of injuries. However, with a healthy lineup, Lafferty should see a slight fall in his production, moving down the lineup in a more defensive role with the Maple Leafs as opposed to the unassigned role with a tanking Blackhawks team.

Defense

Morgan Rielly

Following the November 21^st game against the Islanders, news broke that Morgan Rielly was expected to miss six weeks with a knee injury. His main competition on the roster, Rasmus Sandin, would see an increase in minutes in his absence. The young, Swedish defensemen would play well with the increased minutes, scoring two goals and six assists in the 13 games he played before sustaining a small injury himself. Sandin’s offensive skill set on the back end posed a threat to Rielly’s powerplay and even strength usage. However, come trade deadline, Kyle Dubas and the Toronto Maple Leafs elected to move Rasmus Sandin for a first-round pick and a rental. With Sandin gone, there is even more certainty that Morgan Rielly will own the greatest share of powerplay minutes amongst his teammates on the back end. This offers security to his production, as Rielly has not had fewer than a half a point per game since the 2016-17 season where he only recorded 72 minutes on the powerplay. Morgan Rielly has been seen as the best offensive defenseman on the Maple Leafs roster for some time now, and Toronto reassured their view of that last season.

John Klingberg

Following the 2021-22 season, John Klingberg tested free agency for the first time after not coming to an agreement with the Dallas Stars. With only a small increase in the cap, a market for a long-term extension at the price he wanted dried up. His solution was a one-year deal with the Anaheim Ducks, with the understanding he’d likely move to a playoff team come trade deadline. Unfortunately for Klingberg, he is left with another one-year deal, but on a contending team this time. The 6’ 3” Swedish defenseman has the box score stats of a defenseman who normally would sign long term. And while market conditions may have forced him into a short-term deal again, his extremely poor defensive play has also reduced his market value. Klingberg is looking for a bit of a revival in Toronto. A once free to roam, mobile defenseman became trapped in conservative and unorganized systems at the end of his tenure in Dallas and his short time in Anaheim and Montreal. With a system that is likely a better fit, and a reduction in his usage, Klingberg could find success on the bottom two pairs and on the second powerplay unit.

Timothy Liljegren

After a breakout rookie season with the Maple Leafs in 2021-22, Timothy Liljegren followed it up with much of the same. He scored six goals and 12 assists in 67 games this time, a five point decrease from the year before due to six fewer secondary assists. Liljegren is arguably the best puck-mover on the right-hand side of Toronto’s defensive core, electing to move the puck away from his own net as soon as possible as his main form of defending. But his lack of traditional defending and physical nature is one of the reasons the Maple Leafs coaching staff hasn’t allocated more minutes to him in the past. Liljegren did see a slight uptick in both even strength and special teams minutes last season, but his security in a top four spot was not there as witnessed by being scratched in the playoffs. With Justin Holl out of the picture, Liljegren’s competition for that secured spot will be John Klingberg. If he can prove that he is worthy of taking a spot from a fellow Swede seven years his senior, he could make a big jump. If he fails to do so, at least in the eyes of his coaching staff, then we can expect more of the same from Liljegren, or even a move at the deadline.

Jake McCabe

After missing most of the 2021 season due to injury, Jake McCabe left the Buffalo Sabres for the Chicago Blackhawks in unrestricted free agency. In his first season in Chicago, he would set a career-high 22 points for himself in 75 games. Last season, he finished with another career-high with 25 points in 76 games split between Chicago and Toronto. Jake McCabe earns his NHL minutes with his defensive prowess. He has received top four minutes at even strength and is a main stay on the penalty kill. His 151 blocked shots ranked 21^st among defensemen last season, and his 163 hits ranked 23^rd. Playing his first full season in Toronto, McCabe can expect to take the heavy minutes with defensive zone deployment and tough matchups. In his 350 minutes in Toronto last spring, he spent 169 with fellow defensive-defenseman TJ Brodie. However, he spent limited minutes with Timothy Liljegren who may complement his style of play by assisting with breaking out the puck and following through in transition with the forwards. There is a chance that McCabe’s point production falls if he is put in a dramatic role, but his time on ice will certainly be high.

Goaltending

Ilya Samsonov

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in an intriguing situation to start the 2023-24 season in net, and Ilya Samsonov remains just one piece of the somewhat uncertain puzzle.

Samsonov is quick on his feet, prefers to keep his body moving as he challenges plays, and still maintains the wider stance that has characterized his game – and set it apart from so many other goaltenders in the NHL – since he first crossed the pond as a Washington Capitals prospect. That makes him fast, exciting, and good at accessing some of those higher-danger shots that slower and more methodical goaltenders just don’t seem capable of reaching. But it also makes him less predictable, both for opponents and from a statistical standpoint. And although he finished last season with one of the league’s most respectable save percentages, he remained a little too injury-plagued to feel altogether comfortable tabbing him as a long-term option for success in Toronto. He’s the reclamation project that came out on top, with tandem partner Matt Murray likely out of the picture entirely, but he’s still not a sure shot for Toronto. It seems the team knows that, too; while they could have started the season with just him and wunderkind Joseph Woll as their options to roll out, the cap-strapped Leafs went out and brought in some veteran insurance at the last minute in the form of yet another reclamation project. Martin Jones will join Woll and Samsonov to start the season, and while he’s likely the odd man out, the fact that Toronto signed him in the first place suggests that they aren’t completely sold on the tandem they have to work with just yet.

Projected starts: 40-45

Joseph Woll

It seems all but impossible that Toronto goaltending prospect Joseph Woll would clear waivers if the Leafs tried to hide him away in the AHL for another season, and his lack of waiver exemption status this year forces their hand a bit; it’s do or die time for the team and the former Boston College standout.

That’s not super concerning from a technical standpoint, since Woll has been one of the most impressive young goaltenders in North America for a handful of years now. He was the confident and collected predecessor at BC to Spencer Knight, controlling his crease at the collegiate level in a way that suggested he’d be a perfect candidate to make a short stop in the minors before taking over at the NHL level almost immediately upon going pro. Then, he suffered multiple consecutive injuries, and his development arc derailed just enough that Toronto was left scrambling; now, they’re stuck trying to navigate a need to get him into games, a starter who has been streaky over his career both in numbers and in health, and an aging Martin Jones who hasn’t hit league average stats in over half a decade. The good news, though, is that he plays the kind of game that should make it easy for Toronto to integrate him into their lineup whenever they need; he plays a game that focuses on keeping control of his depth and angles from his feet in order to eliminate the need for extra movement, serving as an interesting foil to Samsonov’s wild style. It’s unclear just what Toronto wants his role to be next year, but we’re likely only a season or two away from seeing Joseph Woll as the team’s clear-cut number one – it’s just a matter of figuring out how Toronto wants to handle the passing of the torch.

Projected starts: 30-35

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS FLORIDA PANTHERS – A path opens up in the East for fortunate Leafs and surprising Panthers

Scott Cullen — Mon, 01 May 2023 17:28:02 +0000

TORONTO, ON - MARCH 29: Florida Panthers center Aleksander Barkov (16) plays the puck against Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) in the third period during the NHL regular season game between the Florida Panthers and the Toronto Maple Leafs on March 29, 2023 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Gavin Napier/Icon Sportswire)

TORONTO vs. FLORIDA

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2004 and have home ice advantage after the Florida Panthers pulled off a massive upset against the top-seeded Boston Bruins in the first round.

Now that they have broken the first-round seal, are the Maple Leafs ready to go on a Stanley Cup run? Can the Panthers carry their first-round magic forward? Ousting the Lightning and the Bruins, respectively, opens up potential opportunities for the team that can emerge from the Atlantic Division.

Forwards

Toronto’s high-priced forwards have taken plenty of criticism over the years for not rising to the occasion in the playoffs, but Toronto’s big dogs showed up against Tampa Bay. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander produced 13 goals and 34 points against Tampa Bay. The supporting cast matters but getting production from the stars at the top of the depth chart sets the foundation for a team to achieve success.

One of Toronto’s apparent strengths is that they have solid contributors beyond the core four. Ryan O’Reilly contributed seven points in the first round and Calle Jarnkrok moved up to play with Matthews and Marner. Rookie Matthew Knies added three assists and the Leafs controlled 57.4% of expected goals with him on the ice during five-on-five play.

Michael Bunting was suspended for three games in the series against Tampa Bay, then was a healthy scratch for Game 5, so he has more to offer, and it might be further down the depth chart because Toronto’s fourth line of Zach Aston-Reese, David Kampf, and Sam Lafferty managed 35.9% of shot attempts and 32.9% of expected goals during five-on-five play against Tampa Bay.

Matthew Tkachuk had an incredible season for the Panthers and carried that play into the playoffs against Boston. The Panthers’ winger put up 11 points and 22 shots on goal in the first round, with Florida controlling 63.4% of expected goals against Boston when Tkachuk was on the ice during five-on-five play. The Maple Leafs will need to find a solution to the problem that Tkachuk presents as a skilled and physical force.

Sam Bennett got into the Boston series in Game 2 and was an impact performer, with five points and 20 shots on goal in six games. Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, Eetu Luostarinen, and Anton Lundell all played solid contributing roles against the Bruins.

Maybe the most surprising part for Florida is that Aleksander Barkov had a hard time against Boston. He produced one goal and six points, but the Panthers only held 40.4% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Barkov on the ice. For a Panthers team that tends to lean on their stars, Barkov will need to elevate his game if they are going to advance.

Defense

After an up-and-down regular season, Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly stepped up and delivered an outstanding series against Tampa Bay. Rielly had three goals and eight points against Tampa Bay with Toronto getting 56.7% of expected goals and outscoring the Lightning 9-3 during five-on-five play with Rielly on the ice. Luke Schenn was frequently paired with Rielly and while Schenn struggled late in the regular season, he was excellent against Tampa Bay, with Toronto pulling 61.1% of expected goals with Schenn on the ice.

T.J. Brodie and Jake McCabe are an effective shutdown pair for Toronto, with McCabe providing a necessary physical element. Schenn and McCabe combined for 66 hits in the first round.

The third pairing was a trouble spot for Toronto against Tampa Bay. Justin Holl and Mark Giordano had just 40.0% of expected goals during five-on-five play and the Leafs were out-scored 9-2 during five-on-five play when Holl was on the ice against Tampa Bay. As a result, Timothy Liljegren and Erik Gustafsson were pressed into action in Game 6. It would make sense for Toronto to give Liljegren a chance to upgrade that pairing but it would not be a surprise for Holl to get a fresh start against the Panthers.

Brandon Montour’s breakout season continued in the first round against Boston. The right-shot blueliner put up five goals and eight points with 22 shots on goal. His confidence is soaring, and he is always ready to launch one-timers from the point on the power play. Montour has been paired with Marc Staal so that duo is vulnerable during five-on-five play. They had 40.5% of expected goals and were outscored 6-3 against the Bruins.

Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling formed an effective shutdown pair against Boston, controlling 55.1% of expected goals while the Panthers outscored the Bruins 8-2 with that duo on the ice during five-on-five play.

Josh Mahura was an under-the-radar pleasant surprise for Florida in the first round. Acquired off waivers from the Anaheim Ducks before the start of the season, Mahura averaged less than 11 minutes per game against Boston, but the Panthers earned 54.4% of shot attempts and 63.2% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Mahura on the ice. Radko Gudas stands out as the heavy hitter on this blueline, but he is somewhat vulnerable if he gets caught out there against speedy and skilled forwards.

Toronto’s group is steadier overall, but both teams have some question marks on the back end, which could ultimately cause problems.

Goaltending

Although he experienced some highs and lows against Tampa Bay, Ilya Samsonov ultimately picked up his first career playoff series victory. His save percentage was just .900, and he let in a few soft goals, but he had stellar performances in Game 3 and Game 6. Given his lack of a playoff track record, there is still plenty of uncertainty around Samsonov heading into this series, but he is clearly Toronto’s number one option with Joseph Woll in the backup role.

The Panthers opened the playoffs with Alex Lyon starting in goal against Boston and he had a .902 save percentage in three games, but Florida eventually turned to Sergei Bobrovsky, who is a high-wire act at this point.

Bobrovsky was erratic in games four and six against Boston and was excellent in game five and seven, ultimately backstopping the Panthers to three straight wins to finish the series. Bobrovsky has a .900 save percentage in 56 career playoff games, including .891 in five appearances this spring, so he is not an easy man to trust under these circumstances.

Goaltending is always important in the postseason, but it would be fair to say that both the Maple Leafs and Panthers have some uncertainty at the position heading into Round 2.

Special Teams

Toronto’s power play was among the best during the regular season and that carries over into the playoffs. During five-on-four play, the Leafs scored 12.48 goals per 60 minutes, ranking fifth among 16 playoff teams in the first round. Toronto’s big boys were firing on the power play, with Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, and O’Reilly all getting on the board against the Lightning.

Florida was closer to the middle of the pack, ranking ninth with 7.60 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. Tkachuk led the way with five power play points and Montour added a pair of power play goals against the Bruins.

Tampa Bay’s power play posed a problem for the Maple Leafs in the first round, scoring 10.92 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranked 10^th. However, that was still more successful than the Panthers, who allowed 15.31 goals per 60 minutes, ranking 13^th among playoff teams. A compounding issue for Florida is that they were one of three teams in the first round to spend more than six minutes per game playing four-on-five. By comparison, the Maple Leafs averaged 4:34 per game. That discipline could make a difference.

Conclusion

Toronto had some good fortune against Tampa Bay, picking up three overtime wins, including some in games that they did not necessarily deserve to win. For a team that is now a co-favorite to win the Stanley Cup and had a long drought of not winning a playoff series, they are in good position, but can hardly afford to look past the Panthers.

While Florida’s upset of the Bruins seems monumental because Boston just put up the most regular season points in history, the underlying numbers suggested that Florida was better than their place in the standings and they caught enough breaks to make the difference. If they could do that against Boston, who is to say that is couldn’t happen against Toronto? I’ll side with the Maple Leafs…cautiously. Maple Leafs in 6.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:49:24 +0000

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 26: Toronto Maple Leafs Center Auston Matthews (34) watches the replay of his 60th goal with Right Wing Mitchell Marner (16) during a break in the action during the regular season NHL game between the Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs on April 26, 2022 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.(Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Auston Matthews

The Hart Trophy winner, Lester Pearson winner, and back-to-back Rocket Richard winner just had career highs of 60 goals and 106 points in 73 games last season. He has 101 goals in 125 games over the past two seasons, 15 more than anyone else, which should comfortably label him as the best goal-scorer in the game now. Not only does he have an incredible release on his shot, but Matthews’ all-around game continues to improve. He had dominant possession numbers last season and generated a career-high 4.77 shots on goal per game. Matthews has rare shooting ability as it is, so if he is getting that many shots, the goals are almost inevitable. He will face criticism until his team achieves some measure of playoff success, but Matthews has reached a top tier of individual performance in the regular season. Another 60-goal, 100-point season is within range for Matthews, and it should not be taken for granted how exceptional it is that he can score goals at this rate.

Mitch Marner

Perhaps the ideal complement to Matthews on the Maple Leafs’ top line, Marner is a creative and confident playmaker who primarily fills the setup role but also increased his own shot output last season, averaging a career high 3.11 shots per game. In the past four seasons, Marner has accumulated 325 points, tied with Auston Matthews for eighth in total points. On top of his fantastic offensive contributions, Marner is a smart defensive player who kills penalties and, as a result, has averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game for three straight seasons. Marner is a better bet to score 30 goals now that he is shooting more and could tally 95 points. If he manages to stay healthy for a full season, a 100-point season is possible.

John Tavares

There seemed to be a lot of criticism for the Maple Leafs captain, especially considering he just had 76 points in 79 games. His possession numbers were negative relative to his teammates for the first time since his rookie season in 2009-2010. He is still a force on the power play and remains highly effective inside the tops of the circles in the offensive zone. Now that he is on the north side of 30, decline is likely to be a factor but for a highly skilled player the decline tends to be more gradual as opposed to crashing off a cliff. For that reason, Tavares should still be a productive option as a second-line center on one of the league’s highest scoring teams. Even with some decline, 75 points is a fair expectation for Tavares.

William Nylander

A brilliant talent who can be maddening and frustrating in one moment and a delightful game-breaker the next. When Nylander is on, he is unquestionably a star player because even on a Maple Leafs team that has its share of star players, there were many nights in which Nylander was the best player on the ice. He has a knack for getting breakaways, which helps him stand out. For a player who gets dogged by his inconsistent performance, it was heartening to see Nylander as such a productive player throughout the season. His longest scoreless streak was three games, which happened on three different occasions, and he ended up with career highs of 34 goals and 80 points. As great as that season was, it is probably reasonable to expect a little less from Nylander this season, something in the range of 30 goals and 70-75 points.

Michael Bunting

A favorite of Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas since his time playing junior hockey in Sault Ste. Marie, Bunting signed as a free agent with the Maple Leafs and reveled in his opportunity to skate on the top line alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Although he barely qualified as a rookie, Bunting was the leading rookie scorer with 63 points, and he finished third in Calder Trophy voting. While Bunting does not have the all-world skill of his linemates, he is a terrific complement to them because Bunting battles hard for loose pucks and fearlessly goes to the net. Bunting is also an agitator extraordinaire, able to get under the skin of the opposition with remarkable ease, and the Maple Leafs need a player who brings that feisty style of play on a regular basis. So long as he sticks with Matthews and Marner, another 60-point season is possible for Bunting, but he does come with downward mobility because any other line is not going to afford him the same quality of scoring opportunities.

Alexander Kerfoot

Although the 28-year-old did produce a career high 51 points last season, his underlying numbers were troubling, and he generated very few shots – 1.43 per game – for a player getting the opportunity to play with skilled linemates. Kerfoot spent more time on the wing which makes sense because he had won 44.0% of his faceoffs since arriving in Toronto. His low shot rates are a concern but if Kerfoot is going to spend most of the season playing with John Tavares and William Nylander, there is still room for him to contribute secondary scoring. Maybe that’s only a dozen goals, but he should also produce more than 40 points.

Calle Jarnkrok

Versatility has long been a strength to Jarnkrok’s game, as he has the ability to play any of the three forward positions and can do it in either a complementary offensive role or more of a checking role. That allows him to fit into a team’s middle six forwards and he was reasonably effective with Seattle last season but then had zero goals and four assists in 17 games with the Calgary Flames. He added a goal and three assists in the playoffs, so he ended up scoring a single goal in 29 games for Calgary. It is not as though Jarnkrok is a big-time scorer, since he has never scored more than 16 goals in an NHL season, but that poor production was not Jarnkrok’s best performance. He has had five seasons of more than 30 points in his NHL career and if Jarnkrok is going to have a top-nine role in Toronto, he should be able to generate 30-35 points. There is a good chance that his flexibility will allow Jarnkrok to play in several different spots throughout the season, depending on where there is an urgent need.

Pierre Engvall

After getting up to speed in the NHL for a couple of seasons, the long and lean 6-foot-5 left winger broke through for 15 goals and 35 points in his third NHL campaign. That offensive production raised Engvall’s profile because now he had a path to contributing more than he could in a fourth line role. Engvall plays a sound defensive game but, as he showed last season, the 26-year-old has the required skill to play in the top nine and on the second power play unit. That is the kind of internal development that any team would like to experience with a player who was once a seventh-round pick. While Engvall’s 35-point season was better than he ever had produced in a previous NHL season, his production was not inflated by high percentages, so it is reasonable to expect Engvall to score in the 35-point range again this season.

David Kampf

An excellent checking center who scored a career high 11 goals and 26 points last season, Kampf did benefit from a career-high shooting percentage of 10.8%, which was notably higher than his career mark of 7.5%. For whatever limitations he might have in his game, Kampf does fill the niche of a fourth line center who can kill penalties and take on the toughest assignments with defensive zone starts. Any offensive projections for Kampf need to be conservative, just based on his track record, but he could still deliver 20 points for the Maple Leafs from the fourth-line center spot.

DEFENSE

Morgan Rielly

The 28-year-old blueliner has anchored the Maple Leafs defense and has played more than 23 minutes per game in each of the past four seasons. He put up 10 goals and 68 points last season, both representing the second highest totals of his career. Rielly is a confident puck-moving defenseman who also has some defensive deficiencies. However, his offensive abilities tend to overshadow his inconsistent play without the puck. He had a 20-game stretch starting on December 1 during which he put up 26 points in 20 games and that kind of production will tend to gloss over missed defensive assignments. Rielly has had seasons with big offensive explosions – last season he had 68 points, in 2018-2019 he had 72 points – but those are aberrations. A forecast in the 55-point range would also incorporate some of the seasons in which Rielly’s point totals did not skyrocket.

Mark Giordano

Acquired from the Seattle Kraken before the trade deadline last season, Giordano has declined some as he is in his late thirties but remains a highly effective player. He finished last season with 35 points after tallying 12 points in 20 games with the Maple Leafs. He did not shoot the puck very much in Toronto, averaging 1.40 shots per game, compared to 2.24 shots per game in Seattle. The value to Giordano, especially at this stage of his career, is that he can still move the puck efficiently and play a reliable defensive game. He could match the 35 points he accumulated last season. While his on-ice shooting percentage (12.7%) was inflated at the end of the year with Toronto, Giordano’s on-ice shooting percentage (7.6%) in Seattle was on he very low end of his career range, so somewhere in the middle would still bring a productive complementary scoring defenseman.

T.J. Brodie

Even though he does not play as much of an offensive puck-moving role that he did during his peak years in Calgary, the 32-year-old defenseman adds some stability in Toronto’s defensive zone. While he can still move the puck, that is an aspect of the game that Brodie appears to have pushed into the rearview mirror. He still skates well and is a reliable defender, which should not be overlooked, but Brodie has surpassed 30 points six times in his career and finished with 28 points last season so it’s not out of the question that he could get to 30-plus points again with a few breaks.

Jake Muzzin

While Muzzin brings a physical presence that other Maple Leafs defensemen do not, he struggled during the 2021-2022 season. He and frequent partner Justin Holl were inconsistent together and it was the first time since 2016-2017 that Muzzin was outscored during 5-on-5 play as well as the first season of Muzzin’s career in which his team had better shot differentials when he was off the ice. As a 33-year-old who plays a physical game and has run into injury issues in recent seasons, it is possible that decline is setting in and Muzzin is simply not going to be the force that he had been previously. If that is the case, then maybe he becomes a reliable third-pair option, but he has played more than 20 minutes per game for eight straight seasons, so it would be premature to suddenly expect that Muzzin’s role is going to be reduced. The first option is probably to give him a bona fide chance to prove that he can perform better than he did last season. Health will determine Muzzin’s offensive upside but if he puts up 25 points while providing a strong physical defensive presence, that ought to be plenty valuable for the Maple Leafs.

GOALTENDING

Matt Murray

It was just two years ago that the Pittsburgh Penguins opted to finally part ways with goaltender Matt Murray, dealing him to the Ottawa Senators to free up their depth chart and give him an opportunity to rediscover his game on a more consistent level. In some ways, it seems like the move worked for Murray; he hasn’t backslid any farther in his development, and he had some stretches with the Senators last year where he appeared to have returned to the form he boasted when he made his league debut. But ultimately, the gamble the Senators made – hoping that a new environment would help Murray look more like the two-time Stanley Cup champion instead of the inconsistent backup he’d become – fell short; just two years into the four-year extension they signed him to back in 2020, they’ve moved him within division for what may end up being one final attempt to get his game back on track. He’ll try to put it all together under the tutelage of his long-time off-season coach Jon Elkin in Toronto, where the familiarity of a voice that’s familiar with his game and style will compete with the high-pressure environment presented by playing for the Leafs.

Murray’s quirks remain as dogged as ever, though. He still has a tendency to stay in motion until the puck arrives in the blue paint, which leaves him vulnerable to oversliding his posts and overshooting his positioning. It also makes it harder for him to effectively use his hands, as he lacks a grounded central position from which to make sharp glove saves and bat pucks away with his blocker; while his fluid movements keep him from looking too stiff or slow, he struggles with accuracy at a position that can’t afford mistakes made by inches. He should be granted a bit of relief, of course, playing behind Toronto after two years in Ottawa; while his own game was far from perfect, the porous defensive structure he backstopped left little room for him to smooth out the errors he needed to work away from. It was a tough scenario for a goaltender looking to bounce back; hopefully, the supercharged offense and step-up defensive roster he’ll move behind this upcoming season will help him level things out.

Projected starts: 40-45

Ilya Samsonov

It seems like it was only a few years ago that Washington was touting the Russian-born Samsonov as their next big thing. After falling short of expectations for just one too many seasons, though, the Capitals opted to start fresh entirely – and Toronto, seemingly in the market for reclamation projects under 30, were ready to welcome Samsonov into the fold to tandem with Matt Murray.

At his best, Ilya Samsonov has the speed and strength to get to even the least likely of shots – and he’s got the kind of aggression that leaves shooters unsure of just what he’s willing to do, challenging out to the top of his crease in a league where more and more netminders are opting for a more patient, conservative approach instead. Like Murray, though, Samsonov has a tendency to stay in motion past the point where he’d benefit from holding his edges and waiting for the puck to come to him; with the kind of wider, lower stance that goaltenders like Jonathan Quick and Sergei Bobrovsky favor and the kind of aggression that few outside of Alex Stalock embrace anymore, Samsonov leaves a lot of holes in his corners ripe for the picking. There will always be an element of ‘what if’ to Samsonov’s game; he was drafted when the expectation was that he would develop under the guidance of former Capitals goaltending guru Mitch Korn, who frequently had a heavy hand in selecting goaltenders for the team to acquire that would fit his development style well. Korn was off to the New York Islanders by the time Samsonov hit the NHL, though – and even though Scott Murray is a well-respected name as Korn’s replacement in DC, Samsonov never quite seemed to live up to the expectations his first-round selection status seemed to set. It’s likely he isn’t being brought into Toronto to be the heir apparent, as Matt Murray is an existing pupil of Jon Elkin already. But Elkin’s history of working magic with other energetic-but-uncontrolled names like Mike Smith in the past made it hard not to wonder just what he can do to help right the ship for Samsonov, as well.

Projected starts: 40-45

Blackhawk Down – Chicago Blackhawks 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:21:33 +0000

REVIEW/STATE OF PLAY - Chicago finished out of the playoffs for the first time ten seasons and only three seasons removed from the Stanley Cup in 2014-15, one of three in that decade. One season ago they registered 109 points, falling 33 point to 76 points this year. Prior to the collapse they had been knocked out in the first round of the playoffs in the prior two seasons. One would assume last season had unusual circumstances for a perennial cup contender to fall so precipitously. There were some factors, including an injury in net, but there seems a consensus their championship window has closed. Taking a closer look at the season and core group, it is true age is not on their side, but they may be underrated going into the season.

Jonathan Toews

FAILED EXPERIMENT -This is a team built around Jonathan Toews (30-years-old) and Patrick Kane (29-years-old), both signed for five years at an identical $10.5 million AAV a season. Likewise, on defense they are tied to 33-year-old Brent Seabrook ($6.875 million AAV – six years) and 35-year-old Duncan Keith ($5.53 million AAV – five years). All four have a no movement clause. They are joined by 33-year-old goaltender Corey Crawford ($6.0 million AAV – two years).

They are committed to this group and in a win-now mode for the foreseeable future. The Panarin/Saad trade at the start of last season was a product of that thinking. It was an attempt to reunite one of the strongest possession duos in the NHL with Toews from 2012-13 to 2014-15 and two cups in those four years. It was a disappointment as Saad struggled scoring only 35 points. Patrick Kane saw his production drop to less than a point a game for the first time in seven seasons missing the magical chemistry he owned with Artemi Panarin - who outscored him in Columbus.

While a disappointing experiment both Saad and Toews were still strong in possession numbers ranking 17^th (Toews 56.1% CF) and 22^nd (Saad 55.8 CF%) and were snake bitten by their scoring percentages. Saad posted a 7.6% rate down from his career rate of 10.9%. He had averaged 12 percent over the previous four seasons. He will only turn 26-years-old this season and should be counted on for a turn around. Toews shot at 9.5 percent down almost 50 percent from his career average of 14.1%.

TINKERING AROUND THE EDGES – Bowman’s off-season work has been to add depth at each of the positions. At forward he traded prospects for a veteran, Marcus Kruger, from their cup wins. He had a season to forget in 2017-18, apparently playing through a sports hernia. He and the also acquired 38-year-old veteran Chris Kunitz who will join Kruger in stabilizing the fourth line.

On defense he added 28-year-old Brandon Manning through free agency to the ninth worst defense group in the NHL, with the ninth worse save percentage. He fills in the top four which include steady Connor Murphy who struggled early in his first season with the Hawks but found his game by seasons end. Depth beyond the top four is suspect and without bounce back seasons from the aging Keith and Seabrook it will have its challenges. Keith is probably the best candidate as another Hawk who was snake bit with shooting percentage (1.1% versus career 4.4%) after having scored at a 0.66 points per game pace in the previous four seasons – a 54-point 82-game pace.

CRAWFORD LOSS DEVASTATING - Goaltending was the difference last season, Crawford was lost to an injury after appearing in 28 games with a 0.929 SV%, 2.27 GAA and a playoff worthy 16-9-2 record. He was replaced by 25-year-old Anton Forsberg who was overwhelmed in his first NHL season with a 10-16-4 record with a 0.908 SV% and 2.97 goals against average. Bowman added another veteran in Cam Ward for one season at $3.0 million. Crawford is not expected to be at 100% by training camp. Ward can play a decent amount of games having appeared in 43 last year and over 50 each of the previous three seasons in Carolina, but has posted consecutive save percentages of 0.906, 0.905 and 0.909 and represents a short-term solution.

The season was not all bleak news with encouraging performances from rookie Alex DeBrincat and sophomore Nick Schmaltz. They finished second and third in scoring respectively. DeBrincat led the team with 28 goals (third in rookie goal scoring). Schmaltz centered Patrick Kane on the second line much of the season giving the team two balanced lines up top. The provide much needed oxygen to a team with tight cap restriction with both on entry level contracts. There is much hope that Dylan Sikura can take on a similar role in the top six as a rookie after lighting it up in the NCAA. It is a lot to ask of a rookie, but barring trades the Hawks will need to draw on a prospect pool that suffered from the many years of winning.

Outlook - As many players that had poor season last year, they are all due to make a bounce back. If they can get a return to form and continued input from the youngsters, they can challenge for a playoff spot and will likely be under the radar this season.