Derek Schaedig – McKeen's Hockey

Dropping the puck on the 2018-19 NCAA season – Part 1 – Atlantic 10, WCHA, ECAC

Ryan Wagman — Tue, 23 Oct 2018 11:25:24 +0000

Don’t call it a preview. The NCAA Men’s Ice Hockey slate technically kicked off in the last weekend of September with the beginning of the annual set of exhibition games between American schools and Canadian ones as Simon Fraser (the only Canadian school to hand out athletic scholarships) went up to Alaska to play one each against Fairbanks and Anchorage.

In 36 total exhibition games played between NCAA schools and their north-of-the-border equivalents, mostly stocked with CHL graduates, the American schools only lost four times, with one draw, coming out victorious 31 times.

There are currently 60 schools participating in Division I Men’s Ice Hockey, and the majority have taken their first few tentative steps toward a hopeful berth in the year ending Frozen Four, this year set to take place in Buffalo, New York, after four regionals in Providence, Rhode Island, Manchester, New Hampshire, Fargo, North Dakota, and Allentown, Pennsylvania.

The clearest way to run through the level is conference by conference, of which there are six, but in fairness, a word should be spared for the sole independent school, Arizona State, which has not been able to find a suitable conference home since joining the top flight of the collegiate ranks in time for the 2015-16 season. In three seasons, the Sun Devils have won 23 games out of the 95 they played. As impressive as their four wins in their first six games of the new season is, they have come against Alaska-Fairbanks and Alabama-Huntsville, not exactly powerhouses in their own rights either. To their credit, they played well in losing a set against Ohio State, and goaltender Joel D’Accord, an Ottawa draft pick has been spectacular, with a .956 save percentage playing every minute. ASU may be improved but they are still far from a regional threat.

Atlantic 10

The A10 is both the only conference to have started inter-conference games in earnest, and the only conference that can be generally overlooked from a scouting perspective, at least as far as future NHLers are concerned. Of the 194 NHL drafted players currently suiting up for NCAA teams, only three play for A10 schools and there is a good chance that none of the three ever signs an NHL contract. Robert Morris is usually a good bet to compete for the conference’s automatic NCAA entry, but Mercyhurst is worth a look this year, if their early-season, non-conference games are any indications, as they include an exciting 6-6 tie against powerhouse Notre Dame, as well as a victory over Ferris State. If there is a dark horse candidate to have NHL teams sniffing around, keep tabs on Dylan McLaughlin, a senior center with Canisius. He was a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award last year after putting up 48 points in 37 games and has six in his first four games of the new season.

Western Collegiate Hockey Association

Although not quite as overlooked as the A10, the WCHA is no longer a collegiate powerhouse conference, as the formation of the NCHC has left the once-feared conference lacking in world beaters. The conference is currently home to only seven NHL drafted players, but there are usually a few more every year who garner NHL interest and a number of others who wind up playing on AHL deals after graduation. Of the ten teams in the WCHA, we can almost dismiss out of hand the two Alaskan members, as Fairbanks and Anchorage are hamstrung by insane travel schedules and lack much in the way of impact talent. We can also skip over Alabama-Huntsville, which has not had a winning season since 2005-06 and has lost its top two scorers from last year to graduation.

In the uninspiring middle, we find schools such as Lake Superior State, Ferris State, Northern Michigan, and Bemidji State. LSS has fallen a long way from the near dynasty that claimed three NCAA titles between 1988-1994 and has been among the weakest teams in the country over the last four years. They will need big years from Latvian netminder Mareks Mitens and senior forward Diego Cuglietta to have a chance. Ferris State has been known to have the odd big year of late, and have a few interesting players on the roster, including Boston draft pick Cam Clarke, and captain Corey Mackin, an undersized point producer. Northern Michigan rarely gets much press, but they quietly put up a very good year last year and have some impact forwards returning, including Darien Craighead and Adam Rockwood. Keep an eye on tiny freshman Griffin Loughran, who was a key contributor with USHL champions Fargo last year. Bemidji State is similarly unheralded, although with a veteran roster including returns from three of their top five scorers from last year, could be strong, even without any NHL prospects of note.

Michigan Tech was a surprise NCAA tournament team last year and could make noise again. They start a pair of senior forwards in Jake Jackson and Jake Lucchini, the former of which is a Sharks draft pick. Minnesota State (Mankato) was the top team in the conference last year, but have lost two of their better players to the NHL. There are still a number of good college players on the roster who should keep the Mavericks competitive, including Parker Tuomie, Marc Michaelis, Reggie Lutz, Jake Jaremko, and others. With decent goaltending, they could top the conference once again. That said, the favorite going into the year should be Bowling Green State. The only team in the WCHA with more than one drafted player, the Falcons have three, between start netminder Ryan Bednard (Florida), defenseman Adam Smith (Nashville) and winger Brandon Kruse (Vegas). Sophomore Max Johnson also seems primed for a big year. The team has youth and offensive depth to challenge any team in the conference.

Eastern Collegiate Athletic Conference

As is typical, the ECAC lets the rest of the college hockey world get started before they drop the puck, with murmurs of academic integrity among the conference’s Ivy League schools the typical explanation. Only five of the 12 schools have played regular season games so far. Let us hand wave away the chances of RPI and St. Lawrence, the former of which has won only 14 games combined over the past two years. Their most interesting player is Penguins’ draft pick Will Reilly, an offensive defenseman. St. Lawrence has been good in the recent past, but the bottom fell out last year (8-27-2) and they seem to lack the horses to turn that around too much. Blueliner Bo Hanson earned some attention in his USHL days, and 6-8” Keenan Suthers struggled to assert himself in his time in the USNTDP or as a freshman, but has started strong this year. Dartmouth could be mildly interesting, if not a true contender, what with most of their top scorers returning. I am most curious to see if big Will Graber could take the team on his broad shoulders. He will be supported by Shane Sellar and Quin Foreman. Another Ivy League dark horse is Brown, which has not surpassed eight wins in a season since 2013-14. They have some interesting recruits arriving for the 2019-20 season, but for now will be reliant on co-captains Tom Marchin, and Max Gottlieb to spearhead the attack. The back half of the conference should be completed with Colgate and Yale. Colgate was a surprise competitor last season behind the goaltending of Colton Point, but he is now in the Dallas system. AJHL alumnus Mitchel Benson is the new netminder in town and the offense seems to have a “by-committee” construct. Yale has a lot of talent on the team, including four drafted players, but lacks much in the way of offensive experience after returning leading scorer Joe Snively. Between Phil Kemp (Edmonton) and Jack St. Ivany (Philadelphia), their blueline will be worth watching.

Despite losing top defenders Terence Amorosa and Kelly Summers to graduation and speedy forward Sheldon Rempal early to LA, Clarkson returns enough talent to threaten in the ECAC again. Netminder Jake Kielly has been a workhorse since first stepping foot on campus. The offensive attack will be led by the returning trio of captain Devin Brosseau, tiny sophomore Jack Jacome, and big German Nico Sturm. Among the prized newcomers are included Nick Campoli (Vegas) and big Josh Dunne, whose game I liked in the USHL. Union shocked the hockey world by winning the NCAA title in 2013-14, led by Shayne Gostisbehere, Daniel Carr, Mike Vecchione, and others. Those days are long gone, but this team still attracts a fine standard of player. Cole Maier has matured into a leading player, while fellow senior Brett Supinski has been a top scorer since first stepping foot on campus. San Jose draft pick Jake Kupsky seems ready for his big chance to take over in goal and Detroit pick Jack Adams could take a step forward.

Princeton surprisingly won the ECAC postseason tournament last year, and despite losing Eric Robinson to Columbus, top scorers Max Veronneau, Ryan Kuffner, Jackson Cressey, and Josh Teves eschewed the pros for another kick at the can. Netminder Ryan Ferland needs to take another step forward to convince me that they can return to the dance. Quinnipiac struggled somewhat last season, looking little like the team that made the NCAA finals twice in a four year span earlier in the decade. With big netminder Keith Petruzzelli (Detroit) looking like he has put a disappointing freshman season behind him, they could be returning to the former heights. There is proven talent up and down the roster, led by blueliners Chase Priskie (Washington), Karlis Cukste (San Jose) and Brandon Fortunato and forwards William Fallstrom, Craig Martin, Odeen Tufto, and the speedy Wyatt Bongiovanni.

That leaves us with two serious contenders for the conference crown. Cornell lost its top three scorers, but returns a ton more and should prove to be very strong at the back. Netminder Matthew Galajda was sensational as a freshman. The blueline is talented and deep, featuring Yanni Kaldis, Alex Green (Tampa Bay), Alec McCrea, Cody Haiskanen, and the hope that Edmonton pick Matthew Cairns can stay healthy and show some of the talent that he displayed two years ago. Rangers pick Morgan Barron, along with returning contributors Brenden Locke, Jeff Malott, and Mitchell Vanderlaan should lead the offensive attack. Freshman Maxim Andreyev is also one to watch. The stacked roster in Ithaca aside, the team to beat in the ECAC should be Harvard. This is a team with six drafted players on the roster, all of whom are legit prospects, as opposed to the late round fliers that we sometimes see on NCAA rosters. The strength of this team is on the blueline, starring Adam Fox (Carolina), Reilly Walsh (New Jersey), John Marino (Edmonton) and freshman Jack Rathbone (Vancouver). All play two-way games, and Fox and Walsh are both particularly dynamic talents, on the small side, mobile and skilled with the puck. There is less up front, but captain Lewis Zerter-Gossage was a big contributor last season, Anaheim draft pick Jack Badini should increase his production as a sophomore and freshman Jack Drury (Carolina), Baker Shore, and Casey Dornbach were all big point producers in the USHL. The main question the Crimson will have to answer is who will replace Merrick Madsen in net. Big Michael Lackey probably gets first dibs, but keep an eye on freshman Derek Schaedig, who also has ideal size and has had success in his time in the NAHL and USHL.

USHL Playoff Preview: New format, wild results

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 20 Apr 2018 20:21:45 +0000

Looking to add more drama to its postseason, this season is the first in which the USHL has extended the playoffs through the addition of a best-of-three wildcard round, adding two teams to the festivities from each conference. Whereas the league had previously included only the top four from each conference in the playoffs, this year, the fifth and sixth teams received an extra chance as well.

The new setup sees the top two teams from each conference receive a bye week while the third through sixth teams played up to three games in three nights, all at the home arena of the higher ranked squad.

Perhaps in opposition to expectations, the wild card round saw three upsets in its four series. In the Eastern conference, third seed Muskegon fell in three games to sixth seed and defending champions, Chicago, a series capped by a game three overtime winner. Meanwhile, the fifth seed, Dubuque, won the first two games in Green Bay, negating the need for a winner-take-all finale.

In the Western Conference, third seed Fargo eliminated sixth seed Tri-City in short order, winning their two games by a combined score of 8-1. Fourth seed Sioux Falls feel to fifth seed Lincoln in three games. Like with the Muskegon-Chicago series, the home team won the first game, before dropping the next two, with the finale going to overtime.

The Conference semifinals begin tonight (Friday, April 20, 2018) with Youngstown hosting Dubuque, with the other three series beginning tomorrow evening.

Eastern Conference

Team USA (1) vs Chicago Steel (6)

This matchup may not be the mismatch the seeds suggest that it is. During the regular season, Team USA’s league games are effectively split between the USNTDP U17 and U18 squads. This arrangement was great for development, but usually pretty bad for the standings. Since rejoining the USHL in 2009-10, the USNTDP split team has only reached the postseason twice, and not since the 2011—12 season. Of the players who led this team during the regular season. Most of the top contributors will be unavailable for the postseason, as the bulk of the U18 squad, and some of the better U17 players, are currently in Russia representing flag and country at the World Under 18 Championships.

The leftover players are still very talented on the whole, but lacking in high impact. The players most likely to push the USNTDP onward are 2019 draft prospects Ryder Rolston, Matthew Boldy, and Trevor Zegras up front, and Henry Thrun from the blueline. All three forwards were point per game players in the regular season and are potential high end prospects for next year.

Jack Dugan, photo by Hickling Images.

The Steel are led by one of the top drafted prospects in the league in Jack Dugan, a Vegas pick and one of the best non USNTDP draft prospects for this year in Blake McLaughlin. The two made up two-thirds of a great top line over the first half of the season, but were split up around mid-season after a coach firing reminiscent of what took place in Flint of the OHL last year. They also have a very promising 2019 prospect of their own in Robert Mastrosimone. Steel games have been high event games this year. Only the USNTDP has scored more and no other playoff team (including the ousted wild-card entrants) have surrendered more. That said, if they stick with Finnish import Oskar Autio in net, they have a very good chance of getting to the conference finals.

Blake McLaughlin.

Draft eligible players to watch: For Chicago, pay attention to Blake McLaughlin. After exploding in the first half of the season, his production slowed measurably in the second half, but he scored twice in the wild card round. He is a dark horse pick in the late first round or early second round. For the US squad, Erik Middendorf is one of a select few who were not taken to Russia for the WU18 tournament. He is a decent two-way player who can skate. The Colorado College commit could be taken in the seventh round if he shows some offensive punch here.

Prediction: As they played Autio throughout the wild card round, I expect the status quo to remain for the best of five here. Chicago in five.

Youngstown Phantoms (2) vs Dubuque Fighting Saints (5)

Representing Exhibit A in why the Western Conference was the stronger one this year, both combatants here surrendered more goals than they scored this year, not something you would expect from a playoff team, much less the second seed from the East. Both teams have veteran rosters, with Dubuque bringing more size, although Youngstown plays a rougher game. The Phantoms somewhat make up for the time they spend in the penalty box by having a fairly strong penalty kill. Dubuque has been much more mediocre when it comes to special teams this year.

Alex Steeves

The Fighting Saints could have been much stronger this year, as their rosters includes three players drafted by NHL teams in Casey Staum (Mtl), Cole Guttman (TB) and Santeri Virtanen (Wpg). Unfortunately, injuries have meant that Dubuque has spent the majority of the season without any of the three and are not expected to have those players now either. Their offensive attack will be spearheaded by forwards Quinn Preston and Alex Steeves, the latter of whom is draft eligible. Joshua Maniscalco, a former USNTDP member, has been very productive from the blueline as well. Their goaltending looks to be a weakspot, despite Cole Weaver’s great work in shutting down Green Bay in the Wild Card round.

The Phantoms have more offensive weapons at their disposal, including Matthew Berry, Chase Gresock, and Michael Regush. They lack much offensive punch from their defensive corps, although midseason acquisition Michael Callahan has provided solid puck movement. The teams’ biggest strength, however comes from their stoppers. They likely expected to have Chicago draft pick Wouter Peeters claim the starters job this year – and he has been pretty good - but Russian import Ivan Prosvetov has been even better. No matter which netminder they choose for the playoffs, they will have a clear edge over Dubuque in the crease.

Curtis Hall. Photo by Hickling Images/courtesy of the USHL.

Draft eligible players to watch: From Dubuque, it can only be Alexander Steeves. The Notre Dame commit has a big engine and real offensive juice. The team’s leading scorer (seventh league-wide) always wants the puck on his stick and knows what to do when he gets it. From Youngstown, the pre-season pick would have been Curtis Hall, but he has shown that his lack of puck skill severely limits his upside. My personal favorite here is the goalie Prosvetov, who can absolutely dominate at his best. But he may not get the nod as Peeters is also very good. So I will pick Michael Callahan. He is not an exciting prospect, but the Providence commit does a lot of things quietly well.

Prediction: Youngstown in four. Between the top notch goaltending and the more diverse offensive attack, they will be tough to beat, especially under the assumption that Dubuque continues to play shorthanded.

Western Conference

Waterloo Black Hawks (1) vs Lincoln Stars (5)

The Waterloo-Lincoln series should be closer than the two teams’ relative place in the USHL standings would suggest. They both scored a hair under 200 goals on the season, although Waterloo has a team-level GAA of around 0.25 better. A factor that should play a role here is special teams play. Both teams are strong on the penalty kill, with Lincoln’s 84.7% kill rate coming second in the USHL. Waterloo, at 83.8% was not far behind. On the power play, however, the Black Hawks more than make up for the shortcoming when down a man. They had the league’s second best man advantage, scoring 23.6% of the time. Lincoln could only convert on 15.6% of their power plays.

That Waterloo power play was a result of some strong offensive talent. Draft eligible Jack Drury is by far the league’s top power play producer with 12 goals and 22 assists coming on the man advantage. The team captain sees the ice well and knows how to take advantage of the extra space a power play brings. Speedy Ben Copeland, veteran Jackson Cates and midseason addition Benjamin Finkelstein (Fla) make them hard to stop.

The goalie battle is also strong here. Both teams feature drafted goalies, on the roster with Matej Tomek (Phi) playing for Waterloo and Tomas Vomacka (Nsh) for Lincoln, but there is no guarantee that either of the latter get the nod. In the wild-card round, the Stars went with normal backup Derek Schaedig, after a rough outing in game one by Vomacka. The Black Hawks also have Jared Moe, one of the better draft eligible goalies in the league pushing Tomek for playing time.

Paul Cotter

Draft Eligible Players to Watch: From Waterloo, pay attention to Drury. His offensive output has been fantastic and has the requisite hockey IQ expected from a legacy player (Son of Ted Drury) and Harvard commit. The question hanging over his prospect value is whether he can produce enough at even strength. From Lincoln, keep an eye on Paul Cotter, who scored the overtime winner in game 3 of the wild card round. He is a good skater with a nice shot and outstanding questions about his upside.

Prediction: Waterloo in four. Lincoln is the most penalized team in the league, with a gap of 129 minutes between them and the runners-up. That will really hurt them as the Black Hawks can take advantage, and will take advantage, over and over again, presuming Lincoln continues to play their brand of hockey.

Omaha Lancers (2) vs Fargo Force (3)

This series promises to be the exact inverse of the above-discussed matchup of Team USA and the Chicago Steel. While the other series should be full of end-to-end rushes, and blaring goal sirens, Omaha vs Fargo is a matchup of the two stingiest teams in the league. Fargo surrendered 133 goals on the season, while Omaha allowed only 143. Both teams enter hot, with Fargo having won five in a row and nine of ten, while Omaha is riding an eight game winning streak.

The goaltending on both sides is stellar. The expected starter for Omaha, Zach Driscoll, finished second in the league with a .934 save percentage. Fargo’s Strauss Mann came in third, at .932. Should, for any reason, either team need to turn to its backup, Fargo’s Ryan Bischel came in fifth in save percentage and Omaha’s Vincent Purpura finished eighth. Omaha’s offensive attack is led by undersized Czech veteran Filip Suchy, who came in second in league scoring with 69 points. Noah Cates (Phi) and Cole Gallant also both finished with over 50 points. Cates, in particular, is a talented player of the puck. Fargo only had one 50 point scoring in Grant Hebert, but Danish import Jacob Schmidt-Svejstrup would have also reached that plateau were it not for time missed for the WJC and a subsequent injury. Fargo also has a number of defensemen who can contribute to the attack, including Ty Farmer, Spencer Meir, and Robbie Stucker (Clb).

Both teams are good on the PK, sharing identical 83.5% kill rate. On the power play, we see some separation. Omaha was very good this year, scoring on 19% of their man up opportunities. Fargo, on the other hand, put everyone to shame, with a USHL high 24.5% power play success rate. Neither team is overly penalty prone, though, so this element may be diminished in significance during this series.

Draft Eligible Players to Watch: Fargo has an older roster on the whole, without any first time eligible players of note. That said, 20 year old Danish winger Schmidt-Svejstrup turned a lot of heads with his goal scoring exploits at the beginning of the season. He lacks pace and likes to fly the zone early, but he knows how to get himself into scoring position. He finished the season with 26 goals in 40 games. On Omaha, Ryan Savage had the most pre-season hype, but has been largely disappointing. Defenseman Travis Mitchell plays a muscular, disruptive style on the blueline, and could be a late round pick, but the real player to watch is left winger Jack Randl. The Michigan commit has promising offensive touch and will be relied upon in the second wave of attack for the Lancers.

Prediction: This is the closest matchup of the round. Omaha wins in five, thanks to better offensive depth. Lots of close, one goal (or two, with the latter being an empty netter) decisions.

Should the first round proper prediction play out, the Conference finals will pit Waterloo against Omaha in the West and Youngstown against Chicago in the East. In that scenario, I see Omaha shutting down Waterloo and Youngstown outscoring Chicago to set up a Clark Cup matchup between Omaha and Youngstown. In this battle of second seeds, Omaha proves the old adage that “defense wins championships” and brings home their eighth Clark Cup championship, and their first since 2007-08.