Deven Sideroff – McKeen's Hockey

Anaheim – System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Wed, 13 Sep 2017 14:17:18 +0000

Having only once in the last five years selected even seven players at the draft, the Anaheim Ducks, a perennial contender, has had to make those picks count. Thankfully for them, they have had a remarkable hit rate over the past decade, regularly producing two or more bonafide NHLers. In fact, between 2000 and 2013, the Ducks had only one draft class that did not include at least two players who have played at least 144 games in the NHL. With their top 20 list made up mostly of players drafted since 2013, that success streak looks primed to continue.

So how do they do it?

Not known as a heavily analytics-influenced organization, the Ducks have nevertheless followed the two golden rules of drafting as prescribed by analysts.

Rule #1 – Do not overdraft goaltending. Dating back to 1993, their first draft, Anaheim has never used a first round pick on a netminder. In fact, only twice have they even used a second rounder on net, drafting Ilya Bryzgalov in 2000 and John Gibson in 2011. Many years go by where they do not draft goaltenders at all.

Rule #2 – Always draft skill/production. The thinking here suggests that players who do not produce as juniors will likewise struggle to produce once (if) they move up the ladder. Statistically speaking, there is a correlation between points produced at age 18 and points produced in a player’s early 20s. Since selecting Logan McMillan 19^th overall in 2007, a player who had some skill, but was not even among the leading scorers on his own team. McMillan, like Mark Mitera, selected by Anaheim in the 2006 first round, never made it to the NHL.

Since then, the worst first round pick in the Ducks’ decade long backlog has been Peter Holland. Not really a bad player, he has already played 243 games in his NHL career, but has simply never received (some would say, never earned) a top six role. Generally speaking, the Ducks have drafted players with both top six/top four upsides as well as the versatility to play in roles of greater defensive significance. This philosophy has not just been a first round SOP, but something they carried with them to later rounds as well.

These two rules, particularly the latter rule, have remained prevalent in the last few drafts, even if the players are not yet NHL-ready. Whether the prospect was a first rounder like Sam Steel, or a fifth rounder like Troy Terry, chances are that he has a record of high offensive production from his amateur days, tools that suggest that he can continue to produce further up the chain, and the hockey IQ that will allow him to contribute from a role with more limited offensive opportunities, as even fourth liners these days need to have talent.

Of course, luck also is a factor, but the ability to continuously stock a system with potential NHL contributors, prolonged over several years, is more skill than fortune. This is unlikely to end any time soon.

1 Sam Steel – The WHL’s leading scorer, Steel will have to return to Regina for a curtain call unless the Ducks keep him in Anaheim. Probably the smartest player in the system, he has near-elite hockey sense, coupled with strong instincts and close-to-perfect positioning. A play driver, he can be dangerous with the puck from anywhere in the offensive zone. A fantastic playmaker, the only thing that separates him from a second line NHL job is approximately 10 pounds of muscle.

2 Brandon Montour – If postseason play was included, Montour would have lost his prospect eligibility last year, with 44 games played between the regular season and playoffs with Anaheim. As 17 of those games came when it counted, he is still here. Those games were good enough that the Ducks exposed former first round pick Shea Theodore to the expansion draft. A modern-day puck rushing blueliner, Montour is equally comfortable leading the rush as he is passing the puck into the neutral zone. Took big steps away from the puck this year and should be in the regular defensive rotation because of it.

3 Jacob Larsson – After starting the season as a 19 year old in Anaheim and then San Diego, Larsson was loaned back to Frolunda where he struggled at times. This ranking is as much about his inherent skill set than what he has done with it of late. Each of his skating ability, shooting, puck handling and hockey smarts grade out as above average, and he has an NHL body, to boot. Would like to see his instincts improve, but he is still young enough for continued growth in that area.

Max Jones of the London Knights was selected by the Anaheim Ducks in the first round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft in Buffalo, NY on Friday June 24, 2016. Photo by Aaron Bell/CHL Images

4 Max Jones – An explosive forward who plays with at least as much vinegar as salt, Jones was showing improvements in his offensive game last year before injury kept him off the ice until the postseason. His extreme aggressiveness can do more harm than good at time, as he is very penalty prone. A bullish puck carrier, he has good wheels, drives hard to the net and is responsible defensively, at least when not getting physically reckless. Can remind one of Nick Ritchie.

5 Troy Terry – The ideal Ducks pick, Terry has gone from fifth round afterthought to American hero in under two years. Accomplished the rare double last year of winning the WJC gold – in no small part due to his own shootout exploits – and an NCAA championship, as one of the top scorers with Denver. A phenomenal puck handler, he scores through vision, positioning, patience and ridiculously quick hands. Heading back to Denver for his junior year.

6 Kevin Roy – In many organizations, Kevin Roy would be the prospect with the best puck skills. Just because Anaheim also has Steel, Terry and Antoine Morand around, does not mean that Roy should be overlooked. An up and down first pro season after four full years with Northeastern showed a player still learning what will and will not work in the AHL. Still needs to show better commitment to defensive duties, but he has the skills to lure a defenseman out of position and casually spring a linemate to a scoring chance.

7 Maxime Comtois – A top midget player heading into his QMJHL draft year, Comtois spent most of the past two years developing his defensive side. He has plus size and learned how to leverage that gift on the ice, displaying a more consistent physical aggression. His scoring was more impressive in his previous season and if he can combine the two-way physical game of 2016-17 with the scoring winger of 2015-16, he will end up playing a middle six NHL role in short order.

Kyle Olson

8 Kyle Olson – Although his draft year point production is underwhelming, if we limit our search to even strength production, Olson rockets up the list as only eight of his 57 points came on the man advantage. Small but aggressive, he plays a two-way game with energy and fearlessness. Owns a strong wrist shot with a tricky release. Will need to add more beef to be able to continue to play this style at a higher level, but he fits the Ducks style of skill pick with two-way sensibilities in the middle rounds.

9 Antoine Morand – Once the second overall pick in the QMJHL entry draft, Morand showed all of the puck skills that had him so highly touted as a 16-year old. In some ways, resembles an East Coast version of Steel, in that he is slight and small, and his skating is more notable for his edgework than his straight-ahead speed. His offensive work suggest a sure-fire NHLer, but he will need to tighten up his game away from the puck more first.

10 Josh Mahura – After a torn MCL limited him to two regular season games in his draft year, a strong playoffs convinced the Ducks that they could get tremendous value by drafting Mahura in the third round. He responded with over 50 points from the blueline last season and a near point-per-game postseason performance for Regina. A strong offensive presence with good vision in the O-zone, he can still show as being raw in coverage.

11 Olle Eriksson Ek – The only goalie even considered for the Ducks’ top 20 list, Eriksson Ek had a very good season in Sweden’s top junior circuit before struggling somewhat down the stretch and only featuring as the backup for Team Sweden’s entry at the WU18. Athletic with plus play reading ability, he will need much more time to develop, but without much between the pipes system-wide, he is in the right organization to receive all the chances he needs.

Jack Badini, Courtesy of the USHL and Hickling Images

12 Jack Badini – After contributing only 11 points for Lincoln in his first draft year, Badini moved to Chicago and exploded, using his great speed and hockey smarts to score 28 regular season goals and then lead all USHL players in playoff scoring as Chicago won the Clark Cup. A great penalty killer, he is always involved in the play and projects as a future analytics darling. In the meantime, he will continue his development at Harvard.

13 Andy Welinski – The only member of Anaheim’s 2011 seven player draft class yet to spend time in the NHL, Welinski had a strong debut in the AHL after four solid seasons with Minnesota-Duluth. While he lacks any one carrying tool, his solid-average combination of skating ability, point shot and hockey IQ will keep him in the picture for a while yet. He showed more than expected in his first season with San Diego and another one like it will ensure that the entire draft class reaches the NHL.

14 Jack Kopacka – A hard working winger with understated finishing skills, Kopacka does not have the biggest upside in this group of prospects, but his high-rev motor and solid stride give him a more than respectable floor. More a scorer than a puck handler, his future projection assumes as much value off the puck as on. A strong OHL postseason portends a jump in production for his final OHL season.

15 Kalle Kossila – The only player from this list not drafted by Anaheim, Kossila was never a high priority prospect in Finland, having never represented his country in any IIHF-sanctioned tournaments. After a big step forward as an 18 year old, he came to North America to play for St. Cloud State where he continued to put up strong numbers. While his skating is sub-par, he is a clever player with plus playmaking skills. Can play center or on the wing.

16 Deven Sideroff – A solid two way player when he was drafted, Sideroff stepped up his game year over year until he aged out of the WHL. A high energy winger who can be relied upon in all situations, combines a modicum of skill with a high hockey IQ. While he had long shown a decent playmaking touch, the added goals last year were a sign that his game has been rounding off. He is ready for the AHL.

17 Marcus Pettersson – A late convert to the blueline, the tall and lean Pettersson has seemingly staled in his progression to master his new position. He skates rather well, with agility and a smooth stride, both impressive at his size. His puck handling is OK, but he can struggle off the puck, showing his lack of experience. He is rarely aggressive and struggles to maintain proper defensive positioning. Expected to play in the AHL this year, the Ducks will take their time with a player who is still essentially a project.

18 Brent Gates Jr. – Only a moderate scorer in his draft year with Green Bay of the USHL, Gates flailed out of the gate (sorry) as a freshman with Minnesota. As a sophomore this year, things began to look up. His quick hands, always a strength, now had more time and space to create, allowing him to get more of a workout for his quick shot release. His top speed is average, but he has a nice startup and drives hard to the net. The next step in his development is increased consistency.

19 Julius Nattinen – the Ducks were understandably excited when Nattinen came to the OHL after being drafted and immediately excelled with 71 points in 52 games. Naturally, when his point production rate fell nearly in half as a follow-up, there was disappointment all around. Not only did his offensive game suffer, but so too did his work off the puck. Has shown enough skills and smarts in the past to give him a mulligan. More is expected as he gets set to make his professional debut this year.

20 Nic Kerdiles – Finally, at the 20 slot, the Ducks have a prospect who is nearing bust status. The 2012 2^nd rounder has completed his ELC and has only a solitary NHL game to his credit. He has a chance to add to that this year. He is a defensively responsible winger who has been a decent secondary scorer in the AHL but finds himself down here as his offensive totals have remained remarkably stagnant as he has fought injuries throughout his career.

As long as the NHL squad does not need a young netminder in the next two or three years, the Ducks system will be ready to pump out two or three talented prospects every year for the foreseeable future. With talent and skill and every skating position, this team should be able to continue as a contender for a few more years to come.

CHL Canada- Russia series: WHL prospects shine, providing some solid WJC auditions

Andy Levangie — Mon, 23 Nov 2015 17:59:41 +0000

Photo; Marissa Baeker

Team WHL started game one like they were shot from a cannon. Their speed was evident and their puck pursuit was tenacious. They were virtually uncontested in transition and through the neutral ice, making for easy entries and lots of offensive zone time for the WHL. It looked for two periods as though Russia didn’t have an answer, showing very little push back.

The way they were playing no one could tell that Russia had been on Canadian soil almost a week already, to combat there expected jet lag. After two periods and a goalie change, Russia had staked Team WHL a six goal lead, as the Dub looked to have game one under control. However, the Russian’s outscored Canada three to one in the third period and began laying the groundwork for a far more competitive game two.

As head coach Dave Lowry said:

“They played the third period how we expect them to start (the next) game… Let’s not take anything away from the way they started the third… At the end of the day you can’t not like the effort and the result”

The head coach was right, a win is a win, and pretty dominant one at that, but game two was a different story and the coach’s speculation for Kamloops was correct. Lowry shuffles his lines and rewarded two of his standout forwards from game 1 sliding Collin Shirley and Deven Sideroff on either side of Matthew Barzal on the “top line” for team WHL. Feeding off their home crowd they were one of the best lines in game two.

Skating to a relatively even first period Russia went toe to toe, keeping Team WHL to the outside, and making life much easier for Maxim Tretiak in goal. Proving to be far more stable in game two, Russia looked more confident from the crease out. Canada opened the scoring on a scramble around the crease that was banged home by some good hand-eye co-ordination from Jansen Harkins (#47 WPG 2015).

Two back-to-back defensive breakdowns right in front of the WHL net led to quick goals by Russia. Sideroff had a great individual effort to even up the score 2-2 by the end of the second. Team WHL would not be denied, outshooting Russia 12-5 and taking the lead with 3:13 left, on a great individual effort by an otherwise quiet Jayce Hawryluk (#32 FLA 2014). Choosing a great time step up and seal the game. Coach Lowry called it the day before, and echoed the sentiment after game two.

“We saw what we expected to see (from Russia), we stuck with it and got better as the game went on”

Goalies:

Some were surprised to see two draft eligible goalies out of the three chosen for the WHL leg of this series. Experienced or not, the selection was deserve given their WHL performance this season. Goaltending is wide open for the upcoming World Junior Tournament and the WHL contingent should strongly be considered.

Zach Sawchenko (2016):

Locked in from the get go with very few Russian chances occurring in the first half, handling most everything that was thrown his way with ease… Looks big in the net, challenges shooters well... A big reason for Moose Jaw’s resurgence.

Carter Hart (2016):

Coming in in relief is never easy when your team is rolling, and would likely want another chance at the 9 shots he faced, surrendering three goals… His season to date boasts a 1.93 GAA and .933 SV%, which are tops among non-over-age goalies in the WHL.

Adin Hill (ARI 2014 #76):

Lowry clearly showed confidence in Hill, and despite his teams struggles this year he boasts a more than respectable .926 SV% with three shutouts... His big frame fills the net, relying on position to block pucks… Covers the bottom of net well and doesn’t give up big holes…

Lowry liked what he saw:

“he was in a zone tonight and we didn’t want to get him out of rhythm… We left the door open(for a switch) but we had talked about through the evaluation process there was chance one guy was going to get a game, that was the case tonight.”

Defense:

Joe Hicketts (Signed DET):

Returning from last years team, his ice time and situational play (EV,PP,PK) at the WHL leg of the Super Series, proves he will be depended on this holiday season by his Victoria Royals head coach... Small in stature but plays an impressive physical game matching up against bigger opponents with a strong lower body… Sound positioning with good agility and four-way movement. A complete player with and without the puck… His Coach knows his game well, entrusting him to mentor the younger D on Team WHL in both games.

Brandon Guhle (#51 BUF 2015):

Makes a strong case for himself with slick skating. Displays less flash, but plays a really solid all around/two-way game. A dependable player any coach would love to have. Makes a good first pass and defends really well on the wall and down low… provides a shutdown presence, but questions arise about his ability to contribute in all areas of play.

Photo: Marissa Baeker

Haydn Fleury (#7 CAR 2014):

Could be considered the best defender over the two games, skates well and imposes his physical will on others… Keeps opposing offences to the perimeter and possesses a long and effective reach breaking up plays… Fires a quick and powerful point shot, working the line with good instincts and improving agility….

Noah Juulsen (#26 MTL 2015):

Brings a lot of the same qualities as Guhle, with some offensive upside… A quick and much improved decision maker who quells trouble with a few efficient skating strides… Thinks well in unison with his feet, stays fluid and creates play-making options… He sees the ice with above average IQ, plays quickly in transition starting the rush and leading sustained zone time… Could certainly be an asset on the hybrid international ice in Finland with some extra room to push the pace.

______________

There were a lot of options from a defensively strong WHL, an intriguing inclusion were some highly touted NHL draft prospects, Jake Bean & Kale Clague. These defensemen both split time with Hicketts and were thrust into important roles against a big Russian team with some varying results. With so many valuable options it would seem Hockey Canada was challenging these young men; look for them at the U18 in April.

Jake Bean (2016):

Showed offensive upside, an ability to break out on the rush and a knack for jumping into the play. Bean’s skating was a big asset, however at times he looked over-matched defending and had some issues with positioning and physical play down low... He should get his shot one-day, but in World Junior tournament full of 19-year-olds he looks to be a year or two away, until he rounds out defensively.

Kale Clague (2016):

Shows some really strong offensive instincts and releases pucks off his stick as fast and he receives them. Opened the scoring in game one by taking a cross ice pass, waiting a split second for his screen to line up, and snapping it. Defensively, Clague appeared well rounded and turned the puck over less than Bean. Strong two-way game and ability to rely on a system and less on individual play is an asset. He plays on a strong Brandon team, so showing success within a highly skilled lineup is not a surprise.

Forwards:

Brayden Point (#79 TBL 2014)

If there was any doubt about the lone returning forward from the WHL, he made an impression, elevating himself from the 13^th forward spot he occupied last year… Undersized as forwards go, his acceleration has improved… in this series he exhibited a separation gear and high speed instincts that gave him time and space to exhibit his crafty stick handling. Looked assertive on offence, driving down the wall and making timely cuts to the middle, opening space and turning defenders. Leaned on for leadership by wearing the C for the WHL. He has been tearing up the league this season, and should be a lock in a skilled top six on the World Junior team.

Matthew Barzal (#16 NYI 2015)

Flashed his usual crafty skills - lining up at the top centre spot for both games. The distributor is a strong candidate for an offensive role in December. His ability to find open wingers and tiny passing lanes can be invaluable as an offensive catalyst. High skill and offensive IQ could be especially valuable with more room to work with on the wider Finnish ice .. brings a good history of rising to the occasion when playing for Hockey Canada.

Collin Shirley (undrafted):

Lowry referenced injury replacements and their chance to make an impression to Team Canada brass. Shirley certainly gave scouts something to think about with a strong showing over two games, with one goal and four assists. He complemented the creativity of Barzal & Point really well. Although he’s a long shot to make the team, the ability to play with highly skilled players isn’t always easy (see Crosby and Kunitz in Sochi).

Deven Sideroff (#83 ANA 2015):

Shirley’s running mate in both games was none other than his Kamloops teammate. He hasn’t been blessed with the greatest teams throughout his WHL career, but he looks intelligent on the ice, a trait that bodes well on a team of highly skilled player. He fit in well in this structure and attacked the net with strong drive .. possesses a good shot and plays determined, especially in front of the net.

With a strong OHL crop, and some serious size and skill turning heads in the QMJHL I don’t expect a massive showing of WHL forwards on the upcoming World Junior team. While the WHL is historically known for its quality defenders, you could see names at all positions making this team. Not to mention the players who were selected for this team and had to withdraw due to injury (Rourke Chartier, Travis Sanheim, Dillon Dube, John Quenneville & Jake DeBrusk). If they are all healthy, it makes the Scouts and Coaches from Hockey Canada’s job that much more difficult. Looking forward to the coming weeks of hockey and finding out which players become household names when the puck drops in December in Finland.