Dmitrij Jaskin – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Oilers power play in a league of its own – Sillinger, Terry, Mangiapane, Getzlaf and more

Scott Cullen — Thu, 04 Nov 2021 14:51:31 +0000

Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, the Oilers power play is in a league of its own, Cole Sillinger, Troy Terry, Andrew Mangiapane, and Ryan Getzlaf are among the players off to encouraging starts to the season.

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 18: Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) in action in the third period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Winnipeg Jets on March 18, 2021 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The Edmonton Oilers power play is wrecking the league. This is not new, as the Oilers have the most productive 5-on-4 results across the past three seasons, scoring 9.45 goals per 60 minutes. This season they are scoring 19.03 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-4 play. The St. Louis Blues (16.62) are the only other team scoring more than 12 goals per 60 during 5-on-4 play. This is unsustainably ridiculous but when it has already been established as the league’s best power play, they are probably going to continue to put up great results.

#2 Among those to play at least 10 minutes during 5-on-4 play this season (it’s early!), Connor McDavid leads the way with 16.68 points/60. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13.39) is seventh. Zach Hyman (12.54) is ninth. Leon Draisaitl is all the way down at 20^th (10.98). Even if these early results are unsustainably great, the prolific nature of the Edmonton power play does bode well for players like Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman.

#3 Hyman, in particular, is reaping early rewards from his role on the Oilers power play. He has 6.70 individual expected goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-4 play, which is far and away the best rate in the league. The rest of the top five includes: Matthew Tkachuk (3.87), Leon Draisaitl (3.77), Reilly Smith (3.77), and Josh Norris (3.76). Connor McDavid is sixth (3.63).

#4 The job just keeps getting more challenging in Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby and Brian Dumoulin have landed in Covid-19 protocol after Crosby had played just one game following offseason wrist surgery. A player to watch in Pittsburgh could be rookie Drew O’Connor, who has five points (3 G, 2 A) in seven games but ranks fourth in points/60 (4.30) and 19^th in shots/60 (12.05). That is a super small sample for a player who does not have an illustrious track record as a scorer, but O’Connor did produce 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 20 AHL games last season during his first pro campaign, so he may have at least a little offensive upside.

#5 Columbus Blue Jackets rookie centre Cole Sillinger had a goal and an assist in his first eight NHL games then put up two goals and an assist in Wednesday’s overtime win against Colorado. One reason to be intrigued by Sillinger’s ability to generate offense? Among the 212 forwards that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, Sillinger ranks fifth with 13.95 shots/60, behind Blake Coleman (16.76), Vladimir Tarasenko (14.76), Jeff Skinner (14.35), and Logan O’Connor (14.31).

#6 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry failed to record a point in Anaheim’s first game of the season. In the nine games since then, Terry has 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 21 shots on goal, recording a point in each of those nine games. He has already tied his career high with seven goals, the same total he had last season in 48 games. Terry has also played more than 21 minutes in two of the past three games, so his production is getting rewarded.

VANCOUVER, BC - MAY 18: Calgary Flames left wing Andrew Mangiapane (88) skates with the puck during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on May 18, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#7 With seven goals in nine games this season, Calgary Flames winger Andrew Mangiapane has scored 25 goals in 65 games since the start of last season, shooting a lofty 22.5%. That shooting percentage is not likely to last but since the start of last season there have been 323 forwards to play at least 500 5-on-5 minutes. From that group, Mangiapane ranks fifth with 1.46 goals/60, behind Auston Matthews (1.83), Jakub Vrana (1.68), Daniel Sprong (1.56), and Brandon Saad (1.46).

#8 Speaking of players with unsustainably high shooting percentages, Tampa Bay’s Alex Killorn has eight points (5 G, 3 A) during a five-game point streak. He now has seven goals on 18 shots this season, good for a 38.9% shooting percentage. Killorn led the league in shooting percentage in 2019-2020 when he scored on 20.0% of his shots but he has been under 12.5% in every other season of his career. This isn’t to suggest dropping Killorn, as he has established a consistent level of production and has a significant role on the Lightning power play, but the goal-scoring pace should slow down.

#9 Ryan Getzlaf became the Anaheim Ducks all-time leading scorer this week, surpassing Teemu Selanne, and the 36-year-old centre has been very productive, with 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 11 games but that does not cover all of Getzlaf’s fantasy appeal. He also has 21 hits, 11 blocked shots and, often a reluctant shooter, he has 30 shots on goal. His 2.73 shots per game would rank as the second highest per-game shot rate of his career. It’s early, but it looks like a pretty good bounce-back season after Getzlaf managed 17 points (5 G, 12 A) in 48 games last season.

#10 Minnesota Wild left winger Kirill Kaprizov was in a goal-scoring slump to start the season but scored in overtime against Ottawa Tuesday to get on the board. He has eight points (1 G, 7 A) and 32 shots on goal in nine games and that shot rate was always the reason to expect Kaprizov to snap out of it. Last season started differently for him. Kaprizov had 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in his first 18 games but only had 32 shots. His shot rate picked up as the season progressed and now, he is good for three-plus per game on average.

#11 Minnesota’s Kevin Fiala is also off to a relatively mediocre start, with five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games but he has 27 shots on goal, and he has only had more than three shots on goal per game once in his career – that was last season. As long as the shots are there, it’s fair to expect the goals and points to follow.

#12 For those seeking peripheral statistical value, beyond goals and assists, there are four players with at least two shots on goal and four hits per game: Darnell Nurse, Brady Tkachuk, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Radko Gudas. Nurse and Tkachuk would have been relatively early picks because they are productive enough offensively, too. Jaskin has not found the scoresheet yet for Arizona but is not shy about playing the body, while Gudas has consistently generated shots and hits for much of his career.

#13 A group of defensemen offering additional peripheral stats value, those averaging at least two shots on goal, two hits and two blocked shots per game: Esa Lindell, Jacob Trouba, Zach Whitecloud, and Matt Dumba. Whitecloud is on IR and Dumba is rostered in 80% of Yahoo leagues, but Trouba (52%) and Lindell (23%) are more readily available to provide sneaky value on the blueline.

#14 Among 212 forwards that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ William Nylander (3.95) and Auston Matthews (3.77) rank first and third in terms of on-ice expected goals. Carolina’s Andrei Svechnikov is second (3.83) and Jordan Staal (3.54) is fourth. St. Louis’ Robert Thomas (3.50), somewhat surprisingly, rounds out the top five. That might suggest that it’s time to buy on the Maple Leafs’ top line because, so far, their production has not been outstanding. But if the chances have been there, the goals will probably be coming soon.

#15 Nylander and Matthews are now playing with Michael Bunting, who is the league leader in individual expected goals during 5-on-5 play (1.41), followed by Dylan Larkin (1.32), Jeff Skinner (1.25), Alex Iafallo (1.23), and Vladimir Tarasenko (1.20). Auston Matthews and Andrei Svechnikov are sixth and seventh, respectively.

#16 Some notable forwards with the lowest on-ice expected goals: Mike Hoffman (1.22), Kevin Labanc (1.29), Dominik Kubalik (1.40), Luke Kunin (1.42), and Nick Suzuki (1.57). It is tough to create sustainable offence with such low rates of expected goals during 5-on-5 play. Given expectations, Suzuki might be the most worrying in that low-rent statistical neighbourhood.

#17 Early in the season, the best goaltenders in terms of actual goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed in all situations are: Frederik Andersen, Sergei Bobrovsky, Igor Shesterkin, Jacob Markstrom, and Elvis Merzlikins. Every one of those goaltenders has had some previous success in the league but Andersen, Bobrovsky, and Markstrom are all coming off mediocre, at best, seasons in 2021. Who can figure out goaltenders from one year to the next?

#18 At the other end of the spectrum, the worst goaltenders in terms of actual goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed in all situations this season are: Carter Hutton, Kevin Lankinen, Marc-Andre Fleury, Darcy Kuemper, and Philipp Grubauer. Fleury won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender last season. Grubauer was a finalist. Kuemper has a .921 save percentage in 147 games since 2017-2018. It is early and small sample goaltending is about as volatile as it gets but goaltending remains a fickle and often unpredictable beast.

#19 Aside from the injured Drew Doughty and Ryan Ellis, the defenceman with the highest points per game this season is Carolina’s Tony DeAngelo, who has 10 points in nine games (1.11 ppg). He is just ahead of Roman Josi (1.10) and Adam Fox (1.10). Kevin Shattenkirk, Kris Letang, Aaron Ekblad, Torey Krug, and Victor Hedman are each at one point per game. Everything is coming up Carolina, it seems.

#20 The Montreal Canadiens sent rookie right winger Cole Caufield to the American Hockey League this week, after he started the season with no goals and one assist in 10 games. Caufield had 22 shots on goal. Last season, when he scored four goals in his first 10 games for the Habs, Caufield had 30 shots on goal, and he had 48 shots on goal in 20 playoff games, so the declining shot rate was one troubling sign. Not all of that would fall on Caufield but if he is not being put in position to generate three shots per game, he is probably not going to deliver the desired results. He will be back, likely after tearing up the AHL for a while.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

Allen Key – St. Louis Blues 2018-19 Season Preview

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 17:39:09 +0000

REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – The St. Louis Blues managed to make the playoffs for six straight years. They even scraped into the postseason in 2016-17 despite trading Kevin Shattenkirk to Washington at the deadline. That run ended in 2017-18 though.

The Blues seemed on the right track through Feb. 9 with a 34-20-3 record, but they went 1-7-2 over their next 10 games to largely kill their playoff chances. For the second straight year, the Blues decided to part with a significant piece of their puzzle at the deadline rather than risk losing the player as an unrestricted free agent. This time it was Paul Stastny who left the team in the midst of the Blues’ late-season fall. St. Louis ended with a 44-32-6 record, which put the Blues a mere point shy of the playoffs.

NO NEED TO PLAY THE BLUES – After finishing 24th in goals for last season, St. Louis was aggressive in adding offensive weapons over the summer. The Blues signed Patrick Maroon to a one-year, $1.75 million contract, Tyler Bozak to a three-year, $15 million deal, and David Perron to a four-year, $16 million agreement over the summer. Those three starters are offensive leaders, but they are all strong secondary scorers that will serve as strong support behind Brayden Schenn and Vladimir Tarasenko.

The Blues also acquired Ryan O'Reilly from the Buffalo Sabres, providing the Blues with an excellent second-line center and giving them the luxury of using Bozak to anchor the third line. It’s also worth noting that O’Reilly won 60% of his faceoffs last season while Bozak won 53.6%, so the Blues have shifted from being a team that was fairly mediocre on the draw to one that’s dominant in that regard.

Another potential additional piece to the offensive puzzle is Robby Fabbri. He was showing promise when knee problems put his career on hold. The 22-year-old last played on Feb. 4, 2017, but he’s healthy going into training camp and could be another solid secondary scorer this season.

Jake Allen

IN ALLEN THEY TRUST – Part of the reason for the Blues’ late season derailment was Jake Allen. From Dec. 14 onward, Allen posted a 2.95 GAA and .900 save percentage in 32 games. His struggles were partially mitigated by Carter Hutton’s strong play, but Hutton left the Blues as an unrestricted free agent so that he could pursue other opportunities to become a starter.

In Hutton’s place, the Blues have signed Chad Johnson, who posted an ugly 3.55 GAA and .891 save percentage in 36 games with Buffalo in 2017-18. Johnson has had better seasons than that and has enough experience that he can potentially be trusted as a short-term starter option in a pinch should Allen get hurt or need some time off to reset during a cold stretch. However, Johnson is not someone that you want as your primary option in net if you intend to make a serious push for the playoffs.

In other words, St. Louis needs Allen to be better this season than he was in 2017-18 or all the forward additions that the Blues made over the summer might be for naught. Now to be fair, Allen bouncing back isn’t an unreasonable hope for the Blues to have. Allen has certainly had better seasons than his 2017-18 campaign and while he didn’t offer details, Allen did make some adjustments over the summer, so perhaps those will bear fruit. The 2017-18 campaign was just his second season as a full-time starter after all, so it’s not shocking that there have been some growing pains there.

If he does bounce back, then the Blues would seem to have all the pieces they need to at least be a competitive team this season.

OUTLOOK – Even with a strong season out of Allen though, the Blues are a step below the NHL’s elite squads. Their offense still isn’t quite as strong, their defense has a big name in Alex Pietrangelo and a rising star Colton Parayko, but there are better blueline groups out there, and even if Allen bounces back, he’s unlikely to be mistaken for an elite goaltender. In other words, St. Louis has a lot of things that there are decent in and the sum of those parts should be good enough for run to the playoffs. Once they get there though, there are teams that will be able to outclass them across the board.

The wonder of Jonathan Drouin & mathematics

David Burstyn & Iain Morrell — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 14:24:41 +0000

As this season races for the mid-March finish line, the QMJHL scoring race is shaping up to be a real dogfight between five main contenders - and perhaps more.

Projecting the stats based on season point-per-game (PPG) averages, there could be a four-way tie for the crown at 109 points.

The current leader Ben Duffy of the PEI Rockets sits with 82 points and projects to record another 27 points based on his 1.61 PPG with 17 games remaining. Ditto PEI sidekick Josh Currie, sitting a point back of Duffy - and another overager, Peter Trainor of the Rimouski Océanic, one back of Currie - and headed for the 105-point range - based on his 1.54 PPG mark.

Their main challenger may be Dmitrij Jaskin of Moncton, among the most-improved drafted players on the junior circuit, and currently scoring at a sizzling 1.88 PPG clip. At this pace, the St. Louis Blues prospect will add another 32 points to his current tally of 77 - and finish tied.

The math is creepy.

Though the biggest threat might be 17-year-old Halifax wunderkind Jonathan Drouin, currently humming at a dizzying 2.09 points per game which would translate to another 38 points to his current 72 points.

Something else is a bit eerie about this particular ensemble - namely that the top three in question were all born in March - Duffy (3-3-92), Jaskin (3-23-93), and Drouin (3-28-95).

Okay, it's probably nothing, but someone might enjoy a nice birthday gift!

Others possibly entering the fray include Drouin's running mate with the Mooseheads - and prime contender in the 2013 NHL Draft this summer - Nathan MacKinnon. Based on a season PPG average of 1.70, MacKinnon projects to finish at 99 points.

Of course, this quickie analysis only considers season averages and doesn't statistically factor how the players have fared recently.

Another wildcard is Val d'Or sniper Anthony Mantha, the current league goal leader with 42, who projects to finish with MacKinnon at 99 points.

It's highly improbable the scoring crown goes to anyone outside this upper group of seven.

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Jonathan Drouin (LW-C, 2013), Halifax

Blazed a trail with the Midget program at Lac St.Louis, averaging over two points per game, prior to forgoing a verbal commitment to Boston College .. selected second overall in the 2011 QMJHL Entry Draft behind MacKinnon, with whom he shares great chemistry .. not only keeps up with skilled players, but also complements them with his superior puckhandling skills .. dangles with the puck as if it were on a string .. quite undersized by NHL standards, however his family is quite tall and his older brother underwent a big growth spurt - six inches - prior to turning 18 .. lack of size may be the lone attribute missing here however, as he is an absolute tyrant in the offensive zone .. his hockey sense plus his ability to manufacture offence are a potent mix that separates him as a player .. head is always up .. extremely gifted puckmover with patience and poise .. hard on the puck for his size - and difficult to dispossess .. can thread the needle on a pass - waiting that extra second to let a play unfold - or open up a goalie and gingerly slide the puck through the opening .. very calculating - like a chessmaster evaluating options in the offensive zone as he waits for the pieces to fall into place before committing .. not the most courageous - yet equipped with an innate ability to sense danger, elude hits, and dispose of the puck before the opposition can get a read on him .. does a good job of disguising his actions by the manner in which his blade is turned - making goalies unsure whether he will pass or shoot .. can be a little perimeter at times and doesn't attack or drive the net - and there's also not much push-back to his game .. deceptively fast and agile - able to blow by opponents endowed with staggering levels of quickness - plus the capacity to shift between those different gears effortlessly .. darts into scoring areas making sudden rapid diagonal cuts and quick moves .. hands are also lightning quick as is his shot release .. his versatility and ability to excel as either a centerman or winger - only adds value to the package.