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Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, look to the future with Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini then turn back the clock for Taylor and Taylor, and so much more!
#1 It’s not as if Chicago Blackhawks centre Connor Bedard is flying under the radar. He was the first overall pick in the 2023 Draft and won the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie for the 2023-2024 season. Last season was not as productive as hoped, though most of the blame seemed to fall on the lack of quality in his supporting cast, and that did create some questions heading into this, his third season in the NHL. Bedard has silenced any critics with 29 points (13 G, 16 A) in 20 games. After scoring on 11.2 percent of his shots in his first two seasons, Bedard has scored his 13 goals on 70 shots, a shooting percentage of 18.6 percent, which is high, but not outrageously so, particularly for someone with Bedard’s release. His on-ice shooting percentage is 13.0 percent, which again is high, but not outrageously high. The early indications are that Bedard’s improvement is at least somewhat for real, in part because he has increased his shot rate to 3.5 per game, after averaging 2.38 per game last season. His percentages will probably come down, so maybe he won’t continue at 1.45 points per game – almost a 119-point pace in 82 games – but a 100-point season is not out of the question.
#2 The first pick in the 2024 Draft, San Jose Sharks centre Macklin Celebrini has produced 31 points (13 G, 18 A) in his first 21 games and to see this kind of production in just his second season portends potential superstardom for the 19-year-old skater. The percentages would suggest exercising some caution with Celebrini’s projections over the rest of the season because he is scoring on 21.7 percent of his shots, after scoring on 10.6 percent as a rookie last season, and his on-ice shooting percentage is nearly 17 percent, a number that will not last for an entire season. Both players are outstanding and should be marquee players in the league for a long time, so there should be no reason to move them out in keeper formats, but given the statistics to this point, it appears that Celebrini’s hot start could be more likely to run into regression this season.
#3 At 34-years-old, Carolina Hurricanes left winger Taylor Hall has hit the stage of his career where he is filling a complementary role as a scoring forward, but that doesn’t mean he has ceased to provide value. In his past seven games, Hall has six points (3 G, 3 A) with 18 shots on goal while playing 15:45 per game. This comes on the heels of his managing just two assists in his previous 10 games, so he’s not easy to trust as a point producer. Some of that is because he has not recorded a power play point all season, with all 12 of his points this season coming at even strength. It might be difficult to believe in Hall at this point, but if he continues like this, belief will follow.
#4 Taken with the second pick in the 2010 Draft, one spot behind Hall, Tyler Seguin has enjoyed a productive career with fewer injuries. Seguin started slowly this season but, after he produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) in his past eight games, Seguin has climbed to 12 points (7 G, 5 A) in 21 games this season. He only has nine shots on goal in those eight games, which is troublingly low, but also has the benefit of quality linemates, as he is currently skating on a line with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz.
#5 Acquired from Montreal as part of the Noah Dobson trade, Emil Heineman has turned into such an offensive threat that he is getting time on the first line. With an assist in Thursday’s 5-0 win at Detroit, Heineman has contributed a point in eight (4 G, 4 A) of his past nine games. He only has 17 shots on goal in that time, so the point-per-game pace is likely to fade, but Heineman is making a case to play a bigger role for the Islanders and if he can stick in this spot in the lineup, he will be a valuable fantasy contributor.
#6 When Aleskander Barkov got injured, the Florida Panthers knew that they had a prime young player who could step into a bigger role. While no one is going to completely make up for Barkov’s absence, it did appear that Anton Lundell could handle more responsibility. He has stepped up all season, but in the past 12 games, Lundell has averaged 21:36 of ice time per game, contributing 11 points (3 G, 8 A) with 22 shots on goal. The Panthers have done a lot of line juggling this season due to injuries, and Lundell has most recently been skating on a line with Mackie Samoskevich and Brad Marchand.
#7 Veteran Toronto Maple Leafs blueliner Oliver Ekman-Larsson has not been a major offensive contributor in recent seasons, but he was a PP1 quarterback during his prime years in Arizona, so there is some offensive skill there, even if it has been suppressed. In his past nine games, Ekman-Larsson has contributed eight points (1 G, 7 A) while averaging more than 23 minutes of ice time per game. Ekman-Larsson is getting second unit power play time and is up to 15 points (2 G, 13 A) in 21 games this season, giving him a chance to surpass 40 points for the first time since 2018-2019.
#8 Philadelphia Flyers centre Christian Dvorak showed some offensive flashes in Montreal last season after battling injuries in the previous few seasons. He is playing significant minutes for Philadelphia this season and has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past six games. He may not sustain that kind of scoring surge over the long haul, but he played 17:59 at even strength on Thursday against St. Louis, leading all Philadelphia forwards in even-strength ice time, so that does make him a more compelling case, as is any player who has earned that kind of trust from his coach.
#9 One of the hottest names on the trade market is Calgary Flames defenceman Rasmus Andersson, who is ramping up his productivity, even in the midst of the Flames’ struggles, which should only enhance his value. Andersson has six points (2 G, 4 A) and eight shots on goal during a three-game point streak, and he is averaging 25:20 of ice time per game in his past seven games – apparently the Flames want to get the most out of him before sending him to a new location.
#10 Although his consistently low shot rates can be a reason for concern, and he’s never been confused with the most durable players in the league, New York Islanders left winger Jonathan Drouin is still a productive playmaking winger. Drouin has seven points (2 G, 5 A) with eight shots on goal in his past seven games and even when he was held off the scoresheet during the Islanders’ 5-0 win at Detroit on Thursday, he ranked second among Islanders forwards in ice time, behind only Mathew Barzal. It’s enough to make him appealing to managers in deeper leagues, so long as he is healthy and getting this much ice time.
#11 Taken with the 19th pick in the 2023 Draft by the Chicago Blackhawks, Oliver Moore played for two seasons at the University of Minnesota and started this season in the American Hockey League, where he tallied nine points (6 G, 3 A) in nine games. He has been promoted to Chicago, where he has contributed five points (2 G, 3 A) in nine games and is skating on the Blackhawks’ second line with Frank Nazar and Tyler Bertuzzi. He is more long-term potential than immediate value, but Moore might have enough upside for deeper league interest now.
#12 It’s looking like rookie Jesper Wallstedt is pushing Filip Gustavsson in the Minnesota Wild crease. Gustavsson has been great and not-so-great in recent seasons and has a .897 save percentage in 14 games this season, a level of play that opens the door for a challenger. Wallstedt has delivered a .926 save percentage in seven starts and that includes one disastrous start at San Jose when he allowed six goals on 25 shots. Every other start has been in the range of good to great.
#13 The Columbus Blue Jackets have been patient with goaltender Jet Greaves, a 24-year-old who was undrafted coming out of the Ontario Hockey League. After 158 games in the American Hockey League, during which he recorded a .909 save percentage, Greaves put himself in position to have a job in Columbus this season and now the question is how much of a workload should he be asked to handle? In his past five starts, Greaves has a .925 save percentage, lifting his season save percentage to .906 in 13 starts.
#14 With Thatcher Demko injured once again, opportunity knocks for Vancouver Canucks netminder Kevin Lankinen, who is admittedly not easy to recommend at the moment. Through a dozen appearances this season, Lankinen has a .886 save percentage, which is not good enough, but he had a .907 save percentage over the previous three seasons combined, and that level is typically good enough to hold a starting job in the league.
#15 The Colorado Avalanche have been easing Mackenzie Blackwood back into action following his recovery from a lower-body injury. Blackwood has appeared in three games this month and somehow has a 2-0-1 record with a .870 save percentage in those three contests. In the long run, he should regain the Avalanche net, but Scott Wedgewood has a .913 save percentage in 16 starts, so the Avs can afford to be patient with Blackwood.
#16 While the decline of the Nashville Predators doesn’t fall entirely on the goaltending, it’s worth pointing out that veteran netminder Juuse Saros had positive Goals Saved Above Average for every season of his career until last season and he’s underwater again this season. A save percentage of .892 isn’t going to cut it behind a team that ranks 21st with an Expected Goals Against Average of 3.13.
#17 The New York Rangers are getting the full J.T. Miller experience it appears. After trading to acquire the centre from the Vancouver Canucks last season, the Blueshirts named Miller their captain for this season, and they are not getting the kind of leadership that they might have hoped for. This week he was roundly criticized for an abysmal shift against Vegas that ultimately turned into a goal against the Rangers, and he was in a slump, scoring two points (1 G, 1 A) with 12 shots on goal in an eight-game span. On Thursday night, he scored a pair of goals in a 6-3 loss at Colorado and still found his way to a minus-4 by the end of the game when the Avalanche scored two goals into the empty Rangers net. Miller is a talented player who, when motivated, can take over games, but he also has a habit of checking out defensively in some of the most egregious displays. That probably makes him worth considering as a buy-low option right now, but that does come with a level of risk.
#18 In the past couple of seasons, Mackenzie Weegar has been a standout on the Calgary Flames blueline, producing 99 points (28 G, 71 A) in 163 games to go with stellar possession numbers. He has managed just four assists in 22 games this season and what’s wild about Weegar’s struggles is that his possession game remains excellent, with the Flames controlling 57 percent of five-on-five shot attempts with Weegar on the ice. However, he is getting killed by low percentages, including an on-ice shooting percentage of 4.0 percent and an on-ice save percentage of .869, which has contributed greatly to the Flames getting outscored 21-8 with Weegar on the ice at five-on-five. With the Flames giving Rasmus Andersson first-unit power play time, Weegar could be the likely beneficiary following an Andersson trade, presuming that Weegar would return to the top power play unit. In the meantime, he should at least be able to count on some positive regression in those percentages.
#19 It has been a tough time for NHL players and social occasions. New Jersey Devils standout centre Jack Hughes will miss eight weeks after requiring surgery on his finger following an incident at a rookie dinner. The Devils will continue to lean on Nico Hischier down the middle, with Dawson Mercer handling the second line centre role with Hughes out of the lineup. In Florida, left winger Eetu Luostarinen is out on a week-to-week basis after suffering burns in a barbecue incident. Luostarinen had eight points (2 G, 6 A) with 15 shots on goal in his last eight games before the injury. Both Mackie Samoskevich and Jesper Boqvist are looking at bigger roles on the left flank amid a run of injuries in South Florida.
#20 The Boston Bruins will be without top defenceman Charlie McAvoy indefinitely when he required facial surgery after a slapshot from Montreal Canadiens defenceman Noah Dobson hit him in the face. With McAvoy out, Hampus Lindholm becomes even more important for the Bruins, and he does have five points (1 G, 4 A) in his past six games. Dallas defenceman Thomas Harley is out week-to-week with a lower-body injury, which means Miro Heiskanen will get PP1 time at the point in Dallas. The Stars’ second unit sees Esa Lindell and journeyman Kyle Capobianco playing defence, though neither has much offensive value at this point.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick
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Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, a Blueshirts winger making his mark, another young star for the Ducks, some good news in Nashville, a young defenceman stepping up in New Jersey and much more!
#1 In his first two NHL seasons, New York Rangers left winger Will Cuylle made major progress, jumping from 21 points as a rookie to 45 points last season. His ice time went up, he delivered more than 300 hits, and suddenly this blue-collar winger was starting to look like he could be a major contributor. He started this season slowly, with one goal and zero assists in nine games, but in the past nine games, he has nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 23 shots on goal and 27 hits. That’s the kind of production that will make Cuylle very valuable for fantasy managers. He moves around the lineup, and with Gabriel Perreault called up from the AHL, Cuylle is skating on the Blueshirts’ third line, but he is getting first unit power play time, so he should be able to remain productive.
#2 One of the best draft day reactions ever belongs to Anaheim Ducks right winger Beckett Sennecke, who was shocked when the Ducks selected him with the third overall pick in the 2024 Draft. The 6-foot-3 winger is finding his way in the league in his rookie season, but he’s not struggling to keep up. In November, he has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal in seven games, while receiving more than 15 minutes of ice time per game. He is skating on a line with Mason McTavish and Cutter Gauthier, which is an excellent opportunity to build something with two more skilled young forwards.
#3 While not a lot has gone right for the Nashville Predators this season, they are finding out that their 2023 first-round pick, Matthew Wood, could be a strong addition to the lineup. Wood was injured in the preseason, so he didn’t start the season on time, but in 11 games, he has produced 10 points (6 G, 4 A), recording a hat trick in Monday’s 6-3 loss to the Rangers. He played 17:09 in that game, the high-water mark in his career. Wood is skating on a line with Fedor Svechkov and Michael Bunting, but if he continues to generate offense, he will force his way into more ice time.
#4 The second overall pick in the 2022 Draft, New Jersey Devils defenceman Simon Nemec was not in a great place last season, managing four points (2 G, 2 A) in 27 games for the Devils while playing 34 games in the American Hockey League. He only got into the playoff lineup once Luke Hughes was injured, but Nemec showed well enough in the Devils’ first-round loss to Carolina that there was reason to be hopeful for him this season. The Devils have a deep core of defenders, which could have made it challenging for Nemec to earn regular playing time, but injuries to Johnathan Kovacevic, Brett Pesce, and most recently, Dougie Hamilton, have opened the door for Nemec, and he has burst right through it. He recorded a hat trick in Wednesday’s 4-3 overtime win against Chicago, giving Nemec eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 15 shots on goal and nearly 22 minutes of ice time per game in his past nine games.
#5 A five-time 20-goal scorer, Chicago Blackhawks winger Tyler Bertuzzi can run hot and cold sometimes, and when he’s not producing, it can feel glaring because on this roster, he is supposed to be a major player. Right now, he’s cooking, with nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 16 shots on goal in six games this month, and they’re not all pretty. Sometimes, it’s just a matter of Bertuzzi planting himself at the back post and letting pucks bounce off him into the net, but they all count and Bertuzzi making it work on Chicago’s top line alongside Connor Bedard.
#6 After a slow start, during which he managed just three points (1 G, 2 A) through the first 10 games, Rangers winger Alexis Lafreniere has found his stride again, and has nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 14 shots on goal in his past eight games. His shot volume is still not ideal, and his ice time can be shaky, but if he contributes offensively and adds to it with 100-plus hits, which he has in three of the past four seasons, then there is potential fantasy value in the 2020 No. 1 overall pick. With Vincent Trocheck recently returning from injury, Lafreniere is skating in a familiar place alongside Trocheck and Artemi Panarin.
#7 After a tough 2024-2025 season, when he finished with 48 points (20 G, 28 A) in 72 games, Carolina Hurricanes left winger Andrei Svechnikov failed to record a point in his first eight games of this season and he was demoted to the fourth line. It appears that he is starting to find his way out of it, and in the past eight games, Svechnikov has seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 29 shots on goal. He has returned to the top line, alongside Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, so Svechnikov is regaining some of the fantasy value that he squandered early in this season.
#8 When the Columbus Blue Jackets shuffled lines earlier this month, they put centre Adam Fantilli in between Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov. After starting the season with five points (2 G, 3 A) in 11 games, 21-year-old Fantilli has seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 19 shots on goal and 19:31 average time on ice in the past six games. That’s more like what is expected from the No. 3 pick in the 2023 Draft who had 54 points last season.
#9 For several seasons, there has been some level of expectation that Philadelphia Flyers defenceman Cam York would occupy the quarterback position on the team’s top power play unit. That has never really stuck before, but it might be now. York has 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 13 games this season, with six of those points coming via the power play. That total of six power play points ties a career high for York, so he may be poised for improved offensive output. He is playing a career high 24:48 per game, so the opportunities should be there, but he does have just eight shots on goal in 13 games, so that is one factor to keep an eye on but, overall, York appears to be realizing some of his offensive potential.
#10 The 11th pick in the 2025 Draft by the Pittsburgh Penguins, Ben Kindel has surprisingly made it through 15 NHL games and isn’t looking out of place despite being just 18 years old. Kindel had 99 points (34 G, 65 A) in 65 games for Calgary in the Western Hockey League last season, so he knows what he’s doing with the puck on his stick, but he has also managed to provide solid two-way results as well, with the Penguins outshooting opponents with Kindel on the ice. He has seven points (5 G, 2 A) in 15 games, but injuries in Pittsburgh have presented greater opportunities and Kindel has four points (2 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal and 20:12 of ice time per game in the past four games. He has moved to left wing on Sidney Crosby’s line, which isn’t a bad spot to be for an 18-year-old who was supposed to be heading back to junior.
#11 Calgary Flames right winger Matt Coronato broke through with 23 goals and 47 points last season, earning a seven-year, $45.5 million contract extension, but then he struggled out of the gate this season, managing three points (2 G, 1 A) and 20 shots on goal in his first 10 games. He was even a healthy scratch for a game and while his production is still not where it needs to be – he has four points (2 G, 2 A) in his past eight games, but he does have 32 shots on goal, and that increasing shot rate is an encouraging sign.
#12 When Philadelphia Flyers right winger Matvei Michkov got off to a slow start, there were accusations that he was out of shape after suffering an injury in the offseason. How else to explain that he had just three points (1 G, 2 A) in his first nine games? Michkov is starting to snap out of it and has goals in three straight games, giving him six points (3 G, 3 A) with 12 shots on goal in his past seven games. The shot rate needs to get better, but at least there are some positive signs. It’s a little troubling that he is averaging less than 15 minutes of ice time per game, after playing 16:41 per game as a rookie last season, so keep tabs on how he is deployed by head coach Rick Tocchet.
#13 Although left winger Eetu Luostarinen failed to record a point in his first seven games this season, he has bounced back from that slow start to deliver 10 points (3 G, 7 A) with 24 shots on goal and 27 hits in his past 10 games. He is skating with Anton Lundell and Brad Marchand, a line that was a big part of Florida’s playoff success last season, but they are effectively the Panthers’ top line right now and Luostarinen’s improved offensive output is part of the reason for that.
#14 Veteran Ottawa Senators winger Michael Amadio has recorded 27 points in three straight seasons, and that is a career high for him, so expectations for his offensive contributions need to be modest, but with Brady Tkachuk injured, there has been a chance for Amadio to move up the Senators’ depth chart. He has six points (4 G, 2 A) and nine shots on goal during a six-game point streak and while he may not offer great long-term value, Amadio is producing enough now to have appeal in deeper leagues.
#15 One of the top free agent signings in the offseason, Carolina Hurricanes winger Nikolaj Ehlers went five games without a point and didn’t score his first goal until his 12th game with the Hurricanes. One of the expectations with Ehlers moving to Carolina is that he would finally get more ice time after it appeared he was underused in Winnipeg, but Ehlers’ production has started to take off this season only after his ice time went down. He has six points (3 G, 3 A) during a five-game point streak, a stretch during which he has played just over 14 minutes per game. He is now skating on a line with Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake, younger players who may be a better match for Ehlers’ speed.
#16 Nashville Predators defenceman Nick Blankenburg is 27 years old and hit career highs with 16 points and 60 games played for Nashville last season. With Roman Josi out of action early in this season, Blankenburg is making the most of his opportunity. He has six points (1 G, 5 A) and 16 shots on goal in eight games, averaging 20:17 of ice time per game. Blankenburg is probably not a long-term answer on defence, but as a short-term fill-in, he’s getting enough ice time, which includes second unit PP time, to make himself useful.
#17 A top goaltending prospect since he was the 11th pick in the 2020 Draft, Yaroslav Askarov has had some ups and down along his development path but is in position to share the crease with Alex Nedeljkovic for the San Jose Sharks this season. In his first half dozen starts this season, Askarov had a brutal .844 save percentage and looked lost. Then the calendar flipped to November and in five starts he has a .965 save percentage with 12.87 Goals Saved Above Expected. With the Sharks playing an exciting offensive game, Askarov’s emergence as a quality goaltender could go a long way to help the team.
#18 Seattle Kraken winger Eeli Tolvanen had just one assist through nine games but is starting to snap out of it with seven points (2 G, 5 A) in his past eight games. He only has 11 shots on goal in those eight games, which is a red flag, but he’s skating with youngers Shane Wright and Berkly Catton at even strength while getting first unit power play time.
#19 One of the premier scoring centres in the league, Tampa Bay Lightning pivot Brayden Point has scored 139 goals in the past three seasons, but he’s having trouble finding the net this season. In his past 12 games, Point has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 27 shots on goal. He is scoring on just 8.8 percent of his shots this season, which is low, but it’s especially low for Point, who has scored on 21.4 percent of his shots in the past three seasons. Is it possible that regression is hitting him after a three-year run?
#20 The Utah Mammoth have been an exciting team early in the season and two of the reasons for their success now and optimism for the future are right winger Dylan Guenther and centre Logan Cooley. In November, Guenther has one goal and zero assists with 18 shots on goal in six games. The shot rate is encouraging, given Guenther’s reputation as one of the game’s elite shooters, but he’s hit a dry spell. Cooley had 12 points (8 G, 4 A) and 26 shots on goal in 11 games in October but has just two assists and eight shots on goal in six games this month.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick
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It’s an incredible thing to watch a dynasty happen in front of your eyes. The Panthers won their second straight Stanley Cup after knocking off the Edmonton Oilers in six games. The road to the Final was a bit more difficult for Florida as they were a goal away from being down 3-0 to Toronto in the second round before Brad Marchand’s overtime winner in Game 3 changed the momentum. What’s amazing about their run last season is they finished third in the Atlantic Division with 98 points behind Toronto and Tampa Bay and finished one point ahead of Ottawa. They limped into the playoffs, going 4-6-1 in the last 11 games but found their gear right away beating the Lightning in five games. They knocked out Toronto in seven games, winning Game 7 on the road 6-1 and knocked out Carolina in the Eastern Conference Final in five games as well. They were a dominant five-on-five team finishing second in the league at CorsiFor percentage and expected goals for percentage behind Carolina. They also allowed the seventh fewest goals in the league. Being an elite team can take many forms, but the Panthers do it with a ruthless forecheck, nastiness all over the ice, and skill that takes many forms.
What’s Changed?
All the big-name players the Panthers could’ve lost in free agency stayed. Sam Bennett (eight years, $64 million), Aaron Ekblad (eight years, $48.8 million) and Brad Marchand (six years, $31.5 million at age 37) each locked in long-term and role player Tomas Nosek also re-signed for one year, $775,000. While they lost Nate Schmidt to Utah in free agency, they brought in Jeff Petry as a veteran defenceman to replace him on a one-year deal for $775,000. Backup goalie Vitek Vanecek also headed to Utah, but Florida acquired Daniil Tarasov from Columbus to compete with free agent signing from Boston, Brandon Bussi, for that role. Running it back with a back-to-back championship roster makes GM Bill Zito’s job a lot easier.
What Would Success Look Like?
If the Panthers win a third straight Stanley Cup, they would be the first team to do that since the New York Islanders won four in a row from 1980 to 1983. That we’re even talking about this being their goal is incredible, especially in the salary cap era. We saw the Pittsburgh Penguins win back-to-back Cups in 2016 and 2017, and the Tampa Bay Lightning did it again in 2020 and 2021 under very different circumstances, but call it recency bias if you want, this Panthers team feels different than those. Aleksander Barkov is an elite two-way forward. Sam Reinhart is as well and is capable of scoring 50 goals. They have an agitating set of role players in Bennett and Marchand, a leader like Matthew Tkachuk who thrives when games get tougher and scorers who can backfill like Carter Verhaeghe, Anton Lundell and Evan Rodrigues. With high-end defencemen like Ekblad, Seth Jones and Gustav Forsling along with Sergei Bobrovsky in goal, there aren’t many weaknesses, especially with a coach like Paul Maurice at the helm.
What Could Go Wrong?
Making it to three straight Stanley Cup Finals and winning it two years in a row can take its toll when it comes to exhaustion, right? Tkachuk opted for surgery from injuries he sustained during Four Nations Face-Off in February and played through in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. He is expected to be out until January. Everyone on the roster has played a ton of games and had short offseasons for three straight years and that kind of physical toll is tough. If they were to slip up and bow out of the playoffs before the Cup Final this year, as surprising as it would be it would be just as unsurprising given all that. It happened with the Lightning. It could happen to the Panthers, too. It’s just hard to see it while they’ve been busy celebrating.
Top Breakout Candidate
It’s tough to make your way into a lineup like the Panthers, but young forward Mackie Samoskevich has been building towards a breakout season the past two years. When he came out of the University of Michigan, he spent most of his first full professional season in the AHL. Last year, however, he got an extended look in Florida and had 15 goals and 16 assists in 72 games while averaging 13:19 time on-ice. It’ll be difficult for him to move up lines in Florida, but on special teams he should get a chance to cash in. If Tkachuk has to miss any extended time, you’d have to think that opportunity to move up into that spot will be his.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 40 | 16 | 27 | 43 | 1.08 |
It’s hard to imagine the kind of gumption it takes for Matthew Tkachuk to play the way he does. It’s even harder to imagine how he does it when he’s playing hurt and it’s even more incredible to think of the way he’d play if he was at 100 percent all the time. Tkachuk toughed out a hard regular season in which he came off their first Stanley Cup victory playing through a broken sternum but was ready and recovered for the start of the season. During the year, he sustained a torn adductor and a sports hernia while playing for the United States at the Four Nations Face-Off that ended his regular season and held him to 52 games. Even still, he finished third on the Panthers in scoring with 57 points and scored 22 goals. When Tkachuk returned for action in Game 1 of the playoffs, he scored two goals and an assist against Tampa Bay to set the tone for the rest of the postseason that he was back and better than ever. In the postseason, he had eight goals and 15 assists and played in all 23 games as the Panthers won their second straight Stanley Cup. He had seven points in the Final against Edmonton alone, but the start of his new season may be delayed by two to three months if he has surgery on the injuries from February that he ultimately played through. Although you wonder how he’ll look upon returning from that, seeing how he’s done it repeatedly through his career should leave no doubt that he’ll be as dangerous as ever when he does.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 68 | 18 | 49 | 67 | 0.99 |
Being the captain of the newest dynasty in the NHL is not something anyone would’ve expected out of Aleksander Barkov five years ago, but after leading the Panthers to three straight Stanley Cup Final appearances and two consecutive championships and being arguably the most important player on the roster in doing so, we’re watching an all-time great appearing before our eyes. Barkov won his second consecutive Selke Trophy, and third of his career, as the league’s best defensive forward and finished second on the team in scoring with 71 points, 10 behind Sam Reinhart. With 20 goals and 51 assists, he was the main distributor on a line with Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe or Evan Rodrigues. While Reinhart topped out with 39 goals to lead the team, having him and Barkov together on a line also gave them two of the three Selke Award finalists on the ice at the same time. By hitting 20 goals, Barkov had his 10th consecutive season scoring 20-or-more goals in a season and it was his fourth straight year with 70-or-more points. Having one of the best two-way players in recent league history able to shut down opposing teams’ top centers while piling up points like that gives the Panthers the kind of advantage that’s allowed them to be so dominant in recent years. If there’s a next step for him it’s to win a Hart or Conn Smythe Trophy to help better fill his growing cabinet of awards.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 78 | 37 | 40 | 77 | 0.99 |
The Florida Panthers top goal scorer followed his career high 57-goal season two years ago with a 39-goal campaign last year and earned his first ever top three finish in the voting for the Selke Trophy during a season that was capped with his second straight Stanley Cup. Reinart came in second to Barkov for the honor as fans and writers alike at last took notice of his outstanding skills in the defensive end to go with his incredible ability to fill the net at even strength and the power play. It’s quite the turn of events for the smart and savvy forward from his time with the Buffalo Sabres to say the least but playing on a line with fellow defensive maven Aleksander Barkov gives Florida a line that can smother opponents at one end of the ice while breaking their spirits at the other by filling the net. Reinhart’s ability to find open areas around the net and tip pucks past goalies and take away their eyes has made him an even more dangerous player to zero in on. While it may look like he’s not actively doing something to make a play happen, his ability to read the action and calculate the best areas to be and where his teammates are headed or where they’re at in the moment. There’s no reason to expect coach Paul Maurice to fix what isn’t broken with the lineup and having Reinhart with Barkov once again should be expected.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 77 | 30 | 29 | 59 | 0.77 |
If ever there was a player who actively made their free agent price go up exponentially right in front of our eyes in the biggest moments, Sam Bennett did so in master class fashion. Bennett won the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoff MVP as he led the Panthers and all goal scorers in the postseason with 15. Stunningly enough, only one of those proved to be a game-winning goal but the way Bennett found ways to score goals in key moments throughout the playoffs for Florida helped them secure their second straight Stanley Cup and a massive new contract worth $64 million over eight years. Although he was due to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, Bennett helping the Panthers the way he did and the bond he formed playing on a line with Brad Marchand made it impossible for Florida’s management to let either one of them go. His ability to deliver huge hits that occasionally toed the legal line as well as a suffocating forecheck made him a valuable player for the Panthers as is. After Bennett piled up goals throughout the playoffs, many of which broke opposing spirits, it made it impossible to let him walk to a potential rival team. Although that deal may be painful down the road, for right now it’s one that keeps a Stanley Cup-winning group together to go for more glory.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 74 | 25 | 32 | 57 | 0.77 |
In what was one of the most shocking trades of the 2025 trade deadline, the Panthers added Boston Bruins captain Brad Marchand to help them go for another Stanley Cup. What they didn’t realize was they added the absolute perfect player to cement their hold on the title. Marchand’s aggressive and confident style of play fit seamlessly into the way the Panthers play and his ability to get under the skin of opposing players only allowed him to double up with Sam Bennett to drive other teams mad. Although Florida acquired him as he was returning from injury, he used the 10 regular season games he played with them to get acclimated. His two goals and two assists in those 10 games weren’t much, but once the playoffs started, the real Brad Marchand appeared. Marchand had 10 goals and 10 assists in 23 playoff games and led the playoffs with 48 penalty minutes. He also had a plus-17 plus-minus rating in the postseason and while that’s not always an accurate way to assess a player’s value, that kind of mark in the playoffs is noteworthy and was second only to teammate Anton Lundell’s plus-19. Marchand’s performance earned him a five-year contract from the Panthers worth $31.5 million that will pay him out until he turns 42. Not a bad gig for a 37-year-old that some in Boston wondered how much more he had left in the tank.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 79 | 25 | 35 | 60 | 0.76 |
It’s kind of wild that a player as good as Carter Verhaeghe can sort of blend into the attack that the Florida Panthers roll with. Three seasons ago, Verhaeghe scored 42 goals and helped lead the Panthers to their first Stanley Cup Final since 1996 and had the first of two back-to-back 70-plus point seasons. Last season, however, he posted 20 goals and finished with 53 points, fourth most on the team, with 16 of those points on the power play. Like so many others on the Florida roster, accomplishments in the regular season are one thing, but what really mattered was the playoffs. In the postseason, Verhaeghe had 23 points in 23 games including seven goals, three of which were game winners. The 23 points tied him with Sam Reinhart and Matthew Tkachuk for the team lead in the postseason and his four power play goals were second to Tkachuk’s five for most on the Panthers. Even though “clutch” isn’t a tangible skill to be measured, it’s hard to say that in the face of what Verhaeghe has done throughout his playoff career. He has 13 game-winning goals in the playoffs over the past four seasons and led the 2023 postseason with four. Now 30 years old, the eight-year extension he signed with Florida a year ago kicks in with a $7 million cap hit. It bears watching to see if he can return to his 70-point form or if 50 points a year and a monster playoff performance to follow can be the norm.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 80 | 19 | 33 | 52 | 0.65 |
When you look at the way the Panthers are built and you see a player like Anton Lundell on their third line, it starts to hit you why they’ve been so good over the past few years. At 23 years old, the Finnish two-way forward has established himself as a capable defender up front and as a player who can make opponents pay for their mistakes in the offensive end. Lundell set a new career-high with 45 points and his 17 goals were one shy of his personal best for a season. Lundell’s importance to the Panthers is three-fold. He excels at five-on-five, contributes to the power play, and is one of their top penalty killers as well. In the playoffs, his line with fellow Finn Eetu Luostarinen and Brad Marchand suffocated opponents with their forechecking and ability to force turnovers. If teams were able to survive getting past the top two lines, trying to get through that trio was often too much to bear. What’s most impressive about Lundell’s abilities is how he can do it seemingly under the radar. His game doesn’t have a lot of flash to it and that kind of cold efficiency helps make games against the Panthers that are much more difficult to get through. What’s more is Lundell has become excellent at faceoffs the past two seasons after struggling with it earlier in his career. Two years ago, he won nearly 55 percent of his draws and last season he won 53 percent of them.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 80 | 14 | 22 | 36 | 0.45 |
There’s no such thing as a “utility position” in hockey the way there is in baseball, but with the way Evan Rodrigues approaches and plays the game, it makes you want to reconsider the idea. Whether Rodrigues is slotted in on the first, second or third line, he finds ways to contribute and hold his own in any situation. If the Panthers need a boost in offense, he can do it. He had 15 goals and 17 assists last season and had his fourth straight season with 30-or-more points and double-digit goals. Although his offensive numbers were down slightly compared to the previous three seasons, it’s his versatility and adaptability in how he plays that can have a big effect on his output. The majority of his minutes at five-on-five last season were with Sam Bennett and it’s likely we’ll see them back together again on the team’s second line this season. There’s no reason for the Panthers to tinker around with things too much considering their success, but regardless of how it shakes out, Rodrigues will be an effective player wherever he slots in. With the way he’s able to also contribute on the power play, it helps add to his value to the team in those deeper roles outside of their star players.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 80 | 15 | 25 | 40 | 0.50 |
Being a checking line or energy line player doesn’t always come with a lot of adulation and in the regular season, that was certainly the case for Eetu Luostarinen. He finished last season with nine goals and 15 assists in 80 games as he played his role as a forechecker and penalty killer to the hilt to make life miserable for opponents. Fortunately for Luostarinen, that regular season role was amplified in the postseason as coach Paul Maurice rolled him out on a line with fellow Finland native Anton Lundell and newly acquired star veteran Brad Marchand. That trio went on to make foes' playoff nights miserable, wearing them out with their seemingly unending pressure, good use of sticks and ability to make any turnover a game-changer in a heartbeat. Luostarinen’s $3 million cap hit may seem a bit juicy for a player with his kind of role, but good luck finding others around the league that can do it as effectively and efficiently as he can. That he teams up with Lundell and Marchand helps add more of a counterattacking threat that opposing teams must respect. Even though physical play may not come to mind right away with Luostarinen, he was credited with 183 hits last season, a career high and third most on the team. There’s no reason to think his game plan will change next season.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 60 | 7 | 31 | 38 | 0.63 |
It was quite an adventurous season for Aaron Ekblad. Going into a contract year and coming off helping the Panthers win their first Stanley Cup, he was poised to have a monster year once he returned from offseason shoulder surgery for injuries he sustained during their playoff run. Like his teammate Matthew Tkachuk who also had offseason surgery, Ekblad was back and ready for the start of the regular season. Ekblad had three goals and 30 assists in the regular season in 56 games and led Panthers blue liners in scoring. Although a slight upper-body injury caused him to miss a few games in January, it was a 20-game suspension for violating the league’s performance enhancing substance program in March that caused him to miss the rest of the regular season and the first two games of their opening playoff series against Tampa Bay. Despite missing four games in the playoffs, Ekblad proved to still be brilliant with four goals and nine assists in 19 games while paired with Gustav Forsling on the team’s top defensive duo. Even with all of the drama, Ekblad helped the Panthers roll to their second straight Cup and even though the temptation of signing a monster free agent contract was there, he re-signed with Florida on a team-friendly deal for eight years, $48.8 million ($6.1 million per season).
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 70 | 10 | 26 | 36 | 0.51 |
To show that the Panthers are serious about winning now, GM Bill Zito acquired Seth Jones from the Chicago Blackhawks in early March for goalie Spencer Knight and a 2026 first-round pick. Jones’ addition proved to be timely when Aaron Ekblad received a 20-game suspension in late March and helped steady the Panthers blue line as the team dragged themselves across the finish line to end the season. With Florida, Jones flourished after escaping a downtrodden situation with Chicago. He had nine points in 21 games to close the regular season including two goals. But in the playoffs, Jones solidified Florida’s ranks the exact way they envisioned. His four goals and five assists in 23 playoff games, his first postseason in five years, helped guide the Panthers to the Stanley Cup. Jones paired with Niko Mikkola in the postseason and that gave Florida a good mix of puck handling and skill with Jones and physical play and nastiness with Mikkola. Being able to create that balance on their second pairing while Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad did a lot of heavy lifting on the top pair created advantages for Florida against opponents’ other lines. If it seems unfair to have that kind of depth, you might be right.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 79 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 0.39 |
Watching Gustav Forsling’s evolution as a defenseman who was bounced around on waivers to become one of the best in the NHL is almost as breathtaking as his ability to make the right play in every situation. Forsling led Panthers defensemen with 11 goals, and his 31 total points were second most among the team’s blue liners. Although he was held to five points in the playoffs, he paired with Aaron Ekblad to guide Florida to the Stanley Cup for the second straight year by taking on all comers in all situations. The ability Forsling has to move the puck effortlessly through all three zones and make great first passes to start the attack makes him one of the best in the league, but it’s also his mindfulness defensively that sets him apart. He doesn’t have to throw body checks to make the right play, but rather he works his gap control to ensure he’s not out of position or can get taken out of a play easily. On a team as strong as the Panthers, Forsling’s advanced stats would be very good to begin with, but his are among the best on the team regardless when it comes to shot attempts and scoring chance quality. It’s hard to call him underrated at this point, but underappreciated? Certainly.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 77 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 0.23 |
Although the Panthers are known for having more than a few players up front that happily take the body and thrive on dishing out physical punishment, it’s not the same on the blue line. Niko Mikkola, however, relishes the chance to do it. Mikkola found a home on the second pairing with Seth Jones and while Jones is known for his smooth skating and ability to set up plays, Mikkola’s dogged work along the walls and in corners as well as being physical around the net make him someone other teams loathe to deal with. He was fifth on the team in hits delivered but he had the most among defensemen with 137. It would be anecdotal to say that his hits were more memorable given the context they’ve come in, but while other Panther defensemen are able to defend better with body positioning and stick use, Mikkola’s use of the body helps keep opposing teams honest and worn-down dealing with him. He’s also able to be physical in his own end of the ice without it leading to sustained zone time against them as well. His advanced stats for shot attempts and scoring chance quality are positive and while that’s somewhat of a team effect, if he struggled at suppressing opportunities while on the ice it would show. Having a defender to do some of the dirty work the way he does only helps Florida be that much more difficult to play against.
| Predicted Stats | ||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | SO | SV% | GAA |
| 57 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 0.905 | 2.42 |
Even if the Florida Panthers hadn’t managed to pull off a repeat in Sunrise this summer, the Sergei Bobrovsky deal - once risky-looking at seven years and $70 million - would have likely been forgiven just based on the 2024 championship he brought home. Now, though, the team will enter their final year of Bobrovsky’s contract with two cups in two years, clear evidence that the 37-year-old is still capable of making the split-second lateral changes and lunging saves that have marked his most eye-catching games over the last 15 years.
As with last season, though, the Panthers will enter the upcoming year with just as many questions in net as they have answers. The team's surprising move away from Spencer Knight signaled that the former first round pick wasn't shaping up to be the definitive future starter they hoped he would be. Instead, Florida will likely be banking on one of either Brandon Bussi or Daniil Tarasov to step up and become a reliable number two for Bobrovsky. Both were once highly rated goaltending prospects in the Boston Bruins and Columbus Blue Jackets systems, respectively, but have struggled to live up to expectations. Expect Tarasov to be the number two as the season starts, looking to bond with Bob over a system shift from Columbus to Florida in an attempt to bring his stats back from their free fall last season. If he struggles to find his footing, though, Bussi - who has never put up poor numbers in the AHL but never got a chance to show Boston what he could do at the top level - will likely be next up to help Bobrovsky weather the 82-game grind.
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A year after losing to Vegas in the Stanley Cup Finals, Florida finished the job, besting Edmonton in Game 7 to earn the franchise’s first championship. As is often the case for a Cup winner, the Panthers were more than the sum of their parts, though goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky and forwards Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Carter Verhaeghe all deserve special mention for their key contributions. The 22-year-old Anton Lundell ended up playing a big role too. Although he wasn’t a major part of the offence during the regular season, recording 13 goals and 35 points across 78 contests, he stepped up in the playoffs with three goals and 17 points in 24 outings. It wasn’t easy -- the Panthers coughed up a 3-0 series edge in the finals -- but in the end, Florida had plenty to celebrate.
WHAT’S CHANGED? Naturally, the Cup champions were looking to keep the squad intact, but the 2024-25 roster won’t be identical to the winners. Defencemen Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Brandon Montour, backup netminder Anthony Stolarz and midseason trade acquisition Vladimir Tarasenko all departed as unrestricted free agents. Florida didn’t have the cap flexibility to make any major additions over the summer, but the Panthers did ink Sam Reinhart to an eight-year, $69 million extension and re-signed Anton Lundell to a six-year, $30 million deal.
WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Even after back-to-back appearances in the finals and a championship in 2024, Florida’s Cup window is far from closed. The forward core of Reinhart, Tkachuk, Barkov, and Verhaeghe are all returning and still in their 20s. The Panthers also have a strong supporting cast behind them, including Lundell and Sam Bennett. Plus, Sergei Bobrovsky is still around and is coming off a campaign in which he was a Vezina Trophy finalist.
WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Then again, Bobrovsky’s 36th birthday is Sept. 20, and his career has included some extreme lows as well as highs, so who knows what Florida will get out of him this year. With Stolarz gone, Spencer Knight is projected to serve as the backup, but while the 23-year-old Knight has potential, he hasn’t been consistent at the NHL level. There’s a reason why he spent 2023-24 in the minors despite his $4.5 million cap hit. Florida’s defence also looks a bit thinner this season, even after adding free agents Nate Schmidt and Adam Boqvist to cheap one-year deals. Additionally, after two long playoff runs, fatigue might finally catch up to the Panthers.
TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: After scoring 22 goals and 54 points in 62 regular-season games with AHL Charlotte in 2023-24, Mackie Samoskevich might secure a middle-six spot with the Panthers out of training camp. He didn’t record a point over seven contests with Florida, but he was averaging just 12:02 of ice time during that span. Although he’s unlikely to be one of the more productive rookies this season, the 21-year-old (22 on Nov. 15) might provide some valuable secondary scoring.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 70 | 21 | 55 | 76 | 1.09 |
The days of calling Aleksander Barkov underrated are in the distant past after watching the Florida Panthers captain lead the franchise to its first Stanley Cup. Barkov’s all-around performance last season was nothing short of brilliant and added his second Selke Trophy in four years to his record. Barkov had 23 goals and 57 assists in 73 games in the regular season. His 80 points were third most on the team, but in the playoffs, he tied with Matthew Tkachuk for the team lead with 22 points (eight goals, 14 assists). Barkov’s defensive ability was on full display all season long, but shined in the playoffs when matched up against Edmonton’s Connor McDavid who he broke even in goals scored at five-on-five (1-1) in 43:40 minutes of play. Barkov was a dominant player in puck possession. At five-on-five, he led the Panthers with 58.4 percent of shot attempts for and 61.1 percent of shot quality for and his linemates reaped the benefits. He played most of the season with Sam Reinhart on his wing and his career-high 57 goals (25 at even strength) and the other wing varied between Evan Rodrigues, Carter Verhaeghe, and Vladimir Tarasenko each of whom helped the Panthers pile up goals and chances. The Panthers suffered many losses in the offseason, but with Barkov at the helm they’re going to have an edge up front nearly every game.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 81 | 35 | 62 | 97 | 1.20 |
If there was anything resembling bad news last season for Matthew Tkachuk it was that he had his string of 100-point seasons ended when he posted 88 points after having 109 and 104 in the two previous years. His goal total dropped to 26 but that may have been because of bad luck given he put up his lowest shot percentage (9.3) since his rookie season (9.2). It’s strange to be almost negative about Tkachuk’s output given what the Panthers did last season, but whatever disappointment he may or may not have had after the regular season turned around in the playoffs. He tied with Aleksander Barkov for the team lead in scoring with 22 points and was an absolute menace to teams after the whistle throughout the postseason. Even though his offensive numbers dipped, that production wasn’t totally missed because the Panthers had more of a team-wide attack which meant opposing teams had to decide who best to try and stop on a given night. But since all Tkachuk’s other numbers were about the same, from shots attempted to shots on goal to assists and time on ice, a return to his career average shooting percentage would mean a distinct uptick in goals. With various losses to the Panthers lineup, the team may need him to have that positive regression. Look for 40 goals and a return to 100 points.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 47 | 35 | 82 | 1.00 |
It’s almost predictable that when a player is in a contract year, they’re going to have one of the best seasons of their career and boy did Sam Reinhart ever follow that logic. Reinhart led the Panthers in scoring with 94 points that included a career-high 57 goals, second most in the NHL behind Auston Matthews’ 69. Reinhart’s goal explosion was virtually unpredictable given his previous career high was 33 back in 2021-2022. That he nearly equaled his output from the previous two seasons combined is incredible, but what’s helped him become a goal scoring force in the NHL is how good he’s become on the power play. Reinhart led the NHL with 27 power play goals last season, six better than second place, Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl. Even his 25 goals at even strength were enough to be in the top 20 in the league in that category. Hawking the net, excelling at tips and deflections, and being hard to move off his position has helped make Reinhart a monster down low. Add in that his wrist shot is always on target and he’s an ideal offensive machine. Now with a big, new contract in hand and locked into playing in Florida, the pressure jumps up a bit more to live up to that and try to help win another Stanley Cup. Those goal totals are gilded by a big jump in shooting percentage to 24.5 from a career 15.4 percent. Coupled with a new contract, it is common for a player to regress, but he is now a key part of the Panthers attack so should mitigate any slide in production.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 74 | 25 | 27 | 52 | 0.70 |
Perhaps the biggest compliment to Sam Bennett is he’s become the kind of player opposing teams know all about what he’s capable of before a game. They know they’ve got to always be attentive or run the risk of winding up in his crosshairs or allowing him to beat them in other ways. Last season, Bennett scored 20 goals with 21 assists and racked up 100 penalty minutes, one of 14 players in the league to crack the century mark. Bennett’s reputation for delivering hard, heavy hits that occasionally toe the line of legality precedes him, but it’s that aura that pervades his game and can often bait opponents into taking reckless penalties to allow Florida’s dangerous power play to make them pay. Bennett has leaned into his role as an irritating physical player, the kind that can mentally wear out opponents knowing they’ll have to deal with him all night long. While he’s not in the same kind of echelon as Brad Marchand in Boston when it comes to extracurriculars, Bennett is the sort of player who doesn’t tone it down at any moment. Playing hard and fast and physically is his M.O. and the Panthers feed off it. That he was only third on the team in hits behind Niko Mikkola and Ryan Lomberg is somewhat surprising, but then again that’s just part of what’s made him so effective. It’s not one aspect, it’s all of them together.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 79 | 38 | 36 | 74 | 0.94 |
Players on every team in the NHL often have a specific role they play. For Carter Verhaeghe, you could argue that his role is being the guy who scores the goal they need most at any given time. Verhaeghe was second on the Panthers in goals behind Sam Reinhart with 34. He was fourth on the team in scoring with 72 points and was versatile enough to play on the first or second line, but it was playing on the wing with Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk that gave the Panthers the kind of line that made it painful for opposing teams to get caught up chasing the other two around with Verhaeghe ready to cash in. The power play was also one of Verhaeghe’s strengths. He put up 21 points on the power play with eight goals, second most behind Reinhart. The unit with Verhaeghe, Reinhart, Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Brandon Montour was eighth best in the league and a severe pain for opposing teams to deal with. Having Verhaeghe there to pound shots from the wing or cash in on rebounds helped make it impossible to defend. Verhaeghe figures to be reunited on a line with Bennett and Tkachuk once again and will help make the Panthers’ offence a pick-your-poison kind of team to defend once again.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 81 | 14 | 29 | 43 | 0.53 |
The emergence of Anton Lundell as a premier two-way forward has been a lot of fun to watch. The 2020 first round pick has earned his way into the Panthers lineup over the past three seasons because of his consistent, steady play and strong defensive capabilities. Being able to learn on the job from teammate Aleksander Barkov can’t hurt either.
Last season, Lundell had 13 goals and 22 assists in 78 games while anchoring what was essentially their third line. He teamed up almost exclusively with fellow Finland native Eetu Luostarinen on a line and had an assortment of cohorts working with them throughout. The heady defensive mindedness paired with a dogged style of play helped make that line a deeply frustrating one for opposing teams to matchup against. What makes Lundell so valuable to the team is how he’s a true jack of all trades. He’s effective at five-on-five, on the power play, and at killing penalties. His special teams work is especially valuable because he can not only provide the bigger players a chance to take a breath but also pick up where they left off with a similar style of play. Lundell may not be the fastest or most skilled player on the roster, but doing everything effectively and efficiently allows the Panthers to not miss a beat. After he posted 18 goals and 44 points in his rookie season, the offence lessened a little bit, but having shown the ability and good fortune to score with that kind of regularity would be a huge bonus for a team that doesn’t necessarily need it.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 17 | 29 | 46 | 0.56 |
For years, Evan Rodrigues sought out a place to call home and prove his worth to a team. When the Florida Panthers signed him last summer to a four-year contract, it proved to be the exact right opportunity for him to show how valuable he can be. He used his versatility to play anywhere up and down the Panthers lineup and his hockey IQ along with his ability to be effective offensively and heads-up defensively to be a vital complementary player in helping Florida win the Stanley Cup. Rodrigues scored 12 goals with 27 assists (39 points) to equal his point output from the previous season with Colorado. Even though his goal total dropped a little bit, Rodrigues’ ability to read plays and the game in front of him helps make him a solid playmaker on any line he played with. Playing lower in the lineup meant being able to defend well and play physically, something he previously hadn’t been known for doing. He put up 104 hits with the Panthers, however, and used the newfound edge in his game to lean into the team’s play style. Whether it was skating with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart or with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen, Rodrigues’s malleable play style made him invaluable. Having a player like that who can do a little bit of everything well is a luxury and one the Panthers were more than happy to use effectively.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 14 | 23 | 37 | 0.45 |
After starting his career with the Carolina Hurricanes back in 2019-2020, Eetu Luostarinen not only found his way to the Florida Panthers via trade, but also earned his way up through the organization to become a valuable defensive forward for them. Luostarinen’s game is well-rounded but the task he’s asked to play is that of an intense forechecker with a physical side to his game to frustrate opponents all over the ice. Even with that in mind, he was able to chip in offensively with 12 goals and 15 assists to go along with his 129 hits delivered. Being part of the Panthers and playing lower in the lineup means delivering hits is part of the job description, but being versatile enough to help at both ends is a big deal. But where Luostarinen excels apart from his five-on-five play is on the penalty kill. He was one of the two leading forwards, minutes-wise, on the kill along with Kevin Stenlund and their work helped give the Panthers the sixth best penalty kill in the league at 82.5 percent. In the postseason they were second only to the Edmonton Oilers with an 88 percent effectiveness. Luostarinen anchoring that unit up front gave the Panthers an edge, especially when you consider their penchant for occasional nastiness. Expect to see him in a similar role this season with Evan Rodrigues and Anton Lundell.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 50 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0.18 |
Part of the Panthers offseason was saying goodbye to useful depth players as well as key players. Fortunately, replacing depth players is a bit easier than say a top pair defenceman, but finding the right guys to replicate what was lost can be tricky. Florida adding A.J. Greer to the mix will ideally help them address that. Greer has played for four different teams so far in his career and played last season with Calgary after he was waived by Boston late in training camp. With the Flames, he had six goals and six assists and delivered 100 hits. His season in Calgary was decidedly less punchy than his year with the Bruins where he had 114 penalty minutes in 61 games two seasons ago. But the fact he’s done it before and is willing to engage physically is enough for the Panthers to get him in the mix to play on the fourth line where he’ll look to replace guys like Ryan Lomberg or Nick Cousins. Greer will have a lot of competition for ice time, however, and a spot in Sunrise isn’t guaranteed despite signing a two-year deal in Florida. Newcomers Jesper Boqvist, Tomas Nosek, Jonah Gadjovich, and Mackenzie Entwistle are there. But given Greer’s willingness to get into the muck and ability to stick in the NHL, that may carve out a spot for him.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 65 | 7 | 19 | 26 | 0.40 |
It was a tough year for the Florida Panthers defenceman. He missed the first 16 games of the season before he returned in mid-November after he recovered from offseason shoulder surgery for an injury he sustained during the Panthers run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2023. Late in the season, injuries popped up once again with a pair of lower-body injuries that kept him out of all but four of the final 17 games of the season. But his return in the postseason helped buoy the defence on the way to winning the Stanley Cup. In the 51 games he played, Ekblad had four goals and 18 assists and averaged nearly 21 minutes of ice time per game (20:52, the lowest mark in his career). He’s never been a big point producer throughout his career (his career high in points was 57 set two seasons ago) but averaging nearly 35 points per season is solid work for a guy who’s meant to hold it down on the defensive end more than anything. Now that he’s healthy once again, his usage will be interesting to watch after Brandon Montour signed with Seattle in free agency. He found a home on a pairing with Gustav Forsling last season and that duo, for the most part, had a ton of success together with Forsling carrying the load offensively. They will be the top pairing for Florida, and we’ll see them a little more often now without Montour.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 13 | 39 | 52 | 0.63 |
In the rankings of all-time greatest waiver pickups, Gustav Forsling has rapidly risen to near the top of the list. Three years after the Panthers claimed him off waivers from Carolina, Forsling became, arguably, their most valuable defenceman and a key reason why Florida has improved so much the past few years. Over the past three seasons, Forsling has been a steady point producer (37, 41, and 39 points each of those seasons) and scored double digit goals in each year (10, 13, 10). On top of the point production, he’s become a minute eater and averaged more than 21 minutes per game in each of the past three years. He’s their featured defenceman on the penalty kill as well and played the most minutes on the team on the kill (over 270). Whether it’s his positioning, his headiness with and without the puck, his gap control, or just his ability to stay cool under duress, Forsling has become indispensable for the Panthers. His growth and ascension in the lineup helped make parting with Brandon Montour in free agency easier to do. While teams would love to keep all their top defencemen, having a do-it-all guy like Forsling is an immense luxury. He’ll team up with Aaron Ekblad to play top pairing minutes and top pairing assignments for a defence corps that will need them to do it.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 77 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 0.23 |
One of the most heartwarming things about the Panthers’ run to the Stanley Cup was seeing their 2009 first-round pick Dmitry Kulikov return to Florida on a one-year contract last summer and then turn into one of their most valuable players on the blue line. In 76 games, Kulikov had a goal and 19 assists and averaged 16:31 time on-ice per game. Since Florida traded him to Buffalo in 2016, Kulikov played in 70-or-more games in a season just twice. Perhaps not coincidentally those were also the seasons in which he had 20-or-more points. He was brought back to Florida to help with their depth and to also help soften the blow while they started the season without Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour who were each recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. Kulikov used that opportunity and his own good health to prove he’s still a capable defender. Kulikov adopted the Panthers methodology well and had a career-high 145 hits delivered and his 63 penalty minutes were the most he’s had in a season since 2013-2014 in his first tour with Florida. He was an important contributor to the Panthers penalty kill as well and played the third most minutes on defence behind Gustav Forsling and Niko Mikkola. Seeing him healthy and playing well again in a comfortable role was exactly what both he and the team needed.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 0.22 |
When the Florida Panthers added Niko Mikkola last summer with a three-year contract, they knew what they were hoping to get out of him. They wanted a guy who would play to his size as a 6-foot-4. 209-pound defender and provide a bit of an edge to a corps that was lacking a truly physical presence. In his first season with Florida, he delivered. Mikkola had three goals and 14 assists playing in all 82 games and delivered a team-high 198 hits while averaging 20:02 time on-ice per game. Offence was not the primary purpose for Mikkola, playing hardy, physical defence was, and he followed through precisely how they wanted. Mikkola was paired most often with Brandon Montour but also spent a lot of time with Dmitry Kulikov at five-on-five. He also played just over 200 minutes on the penalty kill, second among defencemen only to Gustav Forsling. He and Montour were featured together prominently throughout the playoffs while Forsling and Aaron Ekblad handled the top pair assignment. Needing to mind the backend while Montour used his offensive instincts to help push the Panthers offence worked out well. How they’ll try to recreate that this year will be worth watching because of the overhaul their blue line depth had this summer.
| Predicted Stats | ||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | SO | SV% | GAA |
| 55 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 0.910 | 2.48 |
| Predicted Stats | ||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | SO | SV% | GAA |
| 27 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0.904 | 2.62 |
It only took half of his contract for the money to pay off, but Sergei Bobrovsky finally gave fans in Sunrise, Florida what they'd been asking for. The 35-year-old Bobrovsky put up a regular season finally deserving of the money he was offered, then elevated his play in the postseason in a way he hadn't with any prior teams thus far to serve as Florida's key difference-maker en route to the franchise's first-ever Stanley Cup championship. His game, known for being high-risk and high-reward, looked revitalized and crisp as ever during his electric postseason performance - and now, he'll get to spend year six of his whopping seven-year, $70 million deal attempting to prove that he's immune to the Stanley Cup hangover.
While Bob's possibly penultimate season in Florida should be intriguing for fans, though, the real question mark will come from his second-in-command. Spencer Knight's meteoric rise to fame in the goaltending world took an abrupt pause in 2023 when he entered the NHL's Player Assistance Program to seek help managing obsessive-compulsive disorder, and the Panthers aptly gave him a full season of additional development with the AHL's Charlotte Checkers last year to return to form. He had a stellar season with Charlotte, though, with some of his best performances coming in the back half of the year as he truly showcased his NHL readiness once again. He'll play second fiddle to Bobrovsky to start the year, but the situation for both goaltenders could become fluid as Florida looks to make a fairly seamless transition from veteran to rookie in the years to come.
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Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
This week, a look at a new Panthers winger plus lots of early injuries including to significant players like Sebastian Aho, Gabriel Vilardi, Kirby Dach, Viktor Arvidsson, Matthew Boldy, Pavel Buchnevich, and more. That means new opportunities for others looking for a bigger role.
#1 In the past couple of seasons, Evan Rodrigues has proven to be a premier shot generator who could thrive in a supporting offensive role. In those two seasons – one with Pittsburgh and one with Colorado – he put up 82 points (35 G, 47 A) in 151 games while generating 2.85 shots on goal per game. That was something of a late breakthrough for the now 30-year-old forward who is looking at an even better opportunity this season in Florida. Rodrigues has opened the season skating on Aleksander Barkov’s wing and is averaging 18:54 time on ice per game, which would be a career high, on the way to producing five points (2 G, 3 A) and 17 shots on goal in his first four games. It is obviously a very small sample, but Rodrigues has the underlying numbers to make his production more sustainable. For a player that has never had 20 goals and 50 points in an NHL season, Rodrigues should be looking to exceed those numbers this season.
#2 Entering the season, there did not seem to be a lot of buzz surrounding new Ottawa Senators right winger Vladimir Tarasenko, a six-time 30-goal scorer who signed with the club as a free agent. The veteran winger has opened his Sens tenure with six points (2 G, 4 A) in four games, but that doesn’t alleviate the concerns about him entirely, either. He is averaging just 13:38 of ice time per game, which would be his lowest since his rookie season in 2012-2013, and he only has six shots on goal through four games. Although Tarasenko has been skating with rookie Ridly Greig at center, with Josh Norris returning to the Senators lineup, that could eventually help Tarasenko get more offensive opportunities, but the ice time and shot rate bear watching.
#3 It is not easy for Ottawa Senators defenceman Jake Sanderson to get power play time on a team with Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun already, which is not to say that it never happens, only that he ranks second among Sens defencemen in five-on-four ice time behind Chabot. Even so, Sanderson is off to a stellar start, producing five points (2 G, 3 A) in four games. He only has five shots on goal, which is not encouraging, but Sanderson is going to get quality ice time, even if he is not always going to be quarterbacking Ottawa’s top power play unit.
#4 A lot was made of the decline in performance last season from Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Victor Hedman, but it might be premature to start the 32-year-old blueliner into a heavy decline phase of his career. Hedman has contributed five points (1 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal through five games, which is a promising start, but the Lightning have been getting outshot with Hedman on the ice (46.2 CF%), too, and that hasn’t happened for more than a decade.
#5 Carolina Hurricanes centre Sebastian Aho has been out for a couple of games and while his injury is thought to be a day-to-day thing, his absence is still felt. Through a couple of games, the Hurricanes were getting 79.1% of expected goals with Aho on the ice during five-on-five play, In Aho’s absence, Teuvo Teravainen has moved into the first line centre role and Teravainen has scored four goals in five games to start the season. Additionally, the Hurricanes have better depth down the middle as Jesperi Kotkaniemi continues to develop. The 23-year-old has started his sixth NHL season with five points (2 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in five games, averaging a career-high 15:51 of ice time per game.
#6 In a move that didn’t make a huge offseason splash, the Detroit Red Wings brought in puck-moving defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere. While he does not have a huge role, averaging 18:53 of ice time per game, Gostisbehere is getting first unit power play time alongside Moritz Seider and Gostisbehere already has four points (1 G, 3 A) in four games with the Red Wings controlling play (53.2 CF%) in Gostisbehere’s five-on-five minutes.
#7 Toronto Maple Leafs centre Auston Matthews is the early leader in all-situations expected goals (3.76), ahead of Matthew Tkachuk (3.23), Connor Bedard (3.10), Artturi Lehkonen (2.85), Filip Forsberg (2.74), and Jack Eichel (2.64). Bedard is obviously playing a lot for Chicago and creating chances, but they have yet to materialize into goals. For a player who enters the league with a legendary release, Bedard’s ability to generate high-quality shots bodes well for his future production. It’s also encouraging to see Eichel playing at such a high level. He had an outstanding playoff, but it appears in the early going that Eichel is going to continue at an elite level. He leads the NHL with 28 shots on goal in five games, though Nathan MacKinnon (27) and Auston Matthews (26) are close behind while playing just four games.
#8 Winnipeg Jets RW Gabriel Vilardi is out for four-to-six weeks with a sprained MCL, which is a tough situation for a player who was averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game through two games. Vilardi was also rocking a 73.3 CF%, but now the Jets will need to find someone to fill those minutes. It looks like Mason Appleton will get first crack alongside Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele and that is a big opportunity for a 27-year-old who scored a career-high 25 points (12 G, 13 A) in 56 games in 2020-2021.
#9 Montreal lost centre Kirby Dach to a torn ACL, ending the 22-year-old’s season prematurely. He had two assists and 70.4 CF% in two games before getting hurt. Alex Newhook will slide into the middle of the ice to fill the hole created by Dach’s absence, while Tanner Pearson will move up the depth chart to take Newhook’s spot on left wing. Pearson, who played just 14 games last season, has two goals in three games to start his Habs career.
#10 On the Florida Panthers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final last season, Sam Bennett was an impact player at centre, between Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk. Bennett has yet to play this season because of a lower-body injury, so Eetu Luostarinen is getting that opportunity. Unfortunately, he has yet to record a point and has just one shot on goal in four games. That is not making the most of the situation.
#11 Los Angeles Kings winger Viktor Arvidsson has been an excellent and sometimes underrated contributor, but he is out long term after undergoing back surgery, which means new opportunities on the right side in Los Angeles. Arthur Kaliyev is skating in Arvidsson’s typical spot, alongside Phillip Danault and Trevor Moore, while rookie Alexis Laferriere has landed a prime spot on the wing with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Kevin Fiala. Kaliyev may have the higher upside as a scorer, as he has shown a strong ability to generate shots, even in limited ice time. Arvidsson’s injury should help ensure that Kaliyev sees a good jump in ice time this season, opening the door for a breakout season.
#12 Injuries have hit the Minnesota Wild hard early in the season. Rising star winger Matthew Boldy and defencemen Jared Spurgeon and Alex Goligoski are all out of action for Minnesota and they are not easily replaced. Taking Boldy’s spot is Samuel Walker, a 24-year-old who has two points (1 G, 1 A) in 10 career NHL games and did not have any points in two AHL games this season, but he did produce 48 points (27 G, 21 A) in 56 AHL games last season, so this is a real chance to Walker to show his stuff at the NHL level. Spurgeon’s absence also gives Calen Addison the role of first unit power play quarterback, which is an area in which the young defenceman has excelled, with 18 of his 29 points last season coming with the man advantage.
#13 While fourth lines are not going to bring big fantasy appeal, it’s worth noting what is happening in Detroit, where Christian Fischer (83.7 xGF%) and Klim Kostin (80.2 xGF%) are dominating play to a ridiculous degree. Austin Czarnik has played only two games, but Detroit has controlled 86.3% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Czarnik on the ice.
#14 Staying in Detroit, veteran winger Robby Fabbri made it through one game before suffering another injury and Fabbri’s injury presents an opportunity for Michael Rasmussen to climb up the depth chart. Rasmussen had a career-high 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 56 games last season, but his average ice time has increased by more than a minute per game in the early going this season and he has a couple of points (1 G, 1 A) in four games.
#15 Although he can get overshadowed by the top two centres on the Devils roster, Erik Haula’s upper body injury is notable for a team that thrives on its depth. With Haula out, Michael McLeod moves from the fourth line centre to third line centre and while McLeod has established that he is a solid fourth liner, his offensive production has kept him in that role. He has just 10 goals in 157 games over the past two seasons, so if McLeod is ever going to shake his fourth-line label, he will need to take advantage when he gets the chance to play in the top nine.
#16 Expectations were already very low for the San Jose Sharks coming into the season, but it has been made even more difficult with veteran centres Mikael Granlund and Logan Couture out of the lineup. Rookie Thomas Bordeleau and veteran Luke Kunin are handling the middle six centre roles for the Sharks. Bordeleau has managed one goal and five shots on goal through four games while he has been caved in when it comes to puck possession (31.1 CF%). Kunin has yet to record a point and is not much better at driving play (33.0 CF%). This should come as little surprise, but it reveals how much of an uphill fight it is for San Jose right now.
#17 St. Louis Blues winger Pavel Buchnevich suffered an upper-body injury when crushed into the boards by Seattle Kraken defenceman Jamie Oleksiak, and while Buchnevich has been out, the opportunity has fallen to 21-year-old Jake Neighbours, who has managed zero points and two shots on goal in three games this season. A chance to play in St. Louis’ top six is not bad, but it is up to Neighbours to show that he deserves to stay in a significant role over the long term.
#18 It is still super early, but there are some forwards raising red flags with their early struggles. Timo Meier was benched for the third period against Florida and has zero points and four shots on goal in three games. Meier has always been able to generate shots, so that is a notable concern with his game in New Jersey, but he really should be able to figure it out.
#19 When he returned to action last season following hip resurfacing surgery, Washington Capitals centre Nicklas Backstrom struggled, to a degree that he never really had in the NHL before. With a fresh start this season, 35-year-old Backstrom is still struggling to find his way. He has zero points in three games and is averaging 15:45 of ice time per game, which would be the lowest rate of his career. Backstrom is still getting top unit power play time but is skating between Sonny Milano and Tom Wilson at even strength, so he is not nearly the dangerous scoring threat that he was during his prime.
#20 After getting bought out by the Winnipeg Jets, 37-year-old right winger Blake Wheeler landed with the New York Rangers. Through four games with the Blueshirts, not only does Wheeler not have any points, but he is playing just 12:26 per game, which would be the lowest time on ice of his career. He is skating on a line with centre Vincent Trocheck and rookie left winger Will Cuylle. While Wheeler’s all-around game has declined in recent seasons, he still produced 55 points (16 G, 39 A) last season and early returns suggest that he will not be continuing at that level this season.
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Review: A year after the Panthers cruised to a 58-18-6 record with the league’s top offense only to be swept in second round by Tampa Bay, Florida struggled to even make the playoffs in 2022-23. The offense, now led by Matthew Tkachuk instead of Jonathan Huberdeau, was still great, but slightly less dominant, which would have been fine if the goaltending wasn’t such a disaster. Sergei Bobrovsky had a 24-20-3 record, 3.07 GAA and .901 save percentage in 2022-23 and Spencer Knight wasn’t any better, finishing with a 9-8-3 record, 3.18 GAA and .901 save percentage. The Panthers’ five-on-five expected goals against was 173.16, which put them right in the middle of the pack, so the defense was doing Bobrovsky and Knight any favors, but it wasn’t responsible for the goaltending woes either. Still, Florida squeaked into the playoffs and Bobrovsky caught fire at the right time, guiding them into the Stanley Cup Final with a 2.21 GAA and a .935 save percentage through 14 playoffs outings. The Panthers’ magic ultimately ended with the Golden Knights claiming the Cup in a five-game series.
What’s Changed? Florida scooped up two defensemen looking to bounce back after Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Mike Reilly were bought out by Vancouver and Boston, respectively. Niko Mikkola also signed with the Panthers to further bolster the blue line. Up front the biggest change will be middle-six forward Evan Rodrigues, who inked a four-year, $12 million contract.
What would success look like? The Panthers’ last two years have had some extreme ups and downs, but the foundation for success is there. The offense is deep and led by a strong playoff performer in Tkachuk. When their defense clicks, it’s solid too, and while Bobrovsky is inconsistent, he’s also a two-time Vezina Trophy winner and served as the backbone of Florida’s run to the Stanley Cup Finals. The decision to keep this group intact makes a certain amount of sense.
What could go wrong? Goaltending is of course the biggest X-Factor, given the roller coaster that is Bobrovsky. He’s not Florida’s sole concern though. Defensemen Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour both underwent shoulder surgery over the summer, so it’s not clear if they’ll be ready for the start of the campaign and even if they are, being denied a proper offseason due to injuries might lead to them underperforming. Ekman-Larsson and Reilly were brought in to help fill the void, but they’re far from safe bets either. The Panthers might once again be a team that scores and concedes a lot of goals in the regular season and given the level of competition in the Atlantic Division, that might not be good enough to make the playoffs this year.
Top Breakout Candidate: With two NHL seasons under his belt, Anton Lundell might be primed for a breakout. He’s got the potential after being selected with the 12th overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft and is projected to serve in a top-six role, so he’s in a position to succeed. The Lundell had 12 goals and 33 points in 73 contests last season, down from 44 points in 65 outings in 2021-22, but it’s entirely possible that he’ll bounce back and exceed the 50-point milestone.
The reputation that precedes Aleksander Barkov as a top defensive forward became quite clear why it was earned during the Panthers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final last season. What else was apparent was how good of a two-way player he is as well. Barkov was second on the team in scoring to Matthew Tkachuk (by 31 points) despite playing 11 fewer games. He scored at more than a point-per-game pace and he had the second best 5-on-5 puck possession numbers on the team behind Tkachuk. What’s more impressive is that he spent most of the season playing on a separate line from Tkachuk. Most of his 5-on-5 ice time was played with Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe. Having multiple lines that could own the puck and score goals were both major contributing reasons why the Panthers were able to make the playoffs. Barkov has been a paragon of consistency. In four of the past five seasons, he’s scored at more than a point per game pace, and he’s been above 0.9 points per game in the last six consecutive seasons. For all of those reasons, Barkov remains a steady in Selke Trophy voting and still, somehow, one of the more underrated centers in the NHL. After helping lead the Panthers to the Cup final last year, however, we can probably stop referring to him that way.
There wasn’t much question about how well Matthew Tkachuk would play in Florida, the only thing left to be answered was how good he would be and did he ever answer that emphatically. He tied for sixth in the NHL in scoring with Dallas’ Jason Robertson with 109 points and led the Panthers in points and assists and was second to Carter Verhaeghe in goals with 40 (Verhaeghe had 42). He accomplished this in his first season with the Panthers and a year after he put up 104 with Calgary. His back-to-back 40-goal seasons helped him finish third in voting for the Hart Trophy. He also received votes for the Selke Trophy as one of the league’s best defensive forwards and finished 19th in voting. Tkachuk’s style of play provided a new dimension to a Panthers team that wasn’t lacking in talent nor ability after winning the Presidents’ Trophy two years ago. Tkachuk’s physical play and ability to upset opponents in myriad ways gave them an edge in the playoffs in which many Eastern Conference teams don’t necessarily play that way. Given Tkachuk joined a team that did as well as it did last season and was able to be such a difference maker for them come postseason time explained exactly why they acquired him from Calgary. Although he put his body through the wringer in the playoffs and played through a broken sternum, he should be ready to go for the regular season.
Reinhart’s second season with Florida showed even more how valuable of a player he’s become as he’s gotten further into his career. He was fifth on the team in scoring with 67 points including 31 goals. After two straight 30-goal seasons, Reinhart showed well what made him the No. 2 pick in the 2014 NHL Draft by Buffalo. Reinhart was once again a force on the power play with 16 power play goals for the second straight season and 27 total power play points, fourth most on the team. They didn’t need him to play first line minutes, but he produces at a first line-like level giving Florida the kind of scoring depth that makes them a dangerous all-around team. Reinhart was a strong 5-on-5 possession player and his expected goal numbers were also strong. At 27 years old, Reinhart is headed into the final year of his contract which should make it fascinating to see both how well he plays and what the Panthers will do with him. An extension would make a lot of sense, but they’ll also have to consider what they’ll pay to upcoming UFA Brandon Montour as well. Reinhart could be a trade candidate come deadline time, but if he continues to score the way he has while with the Panthers, a long-term extension might prove to be the wisest move.
The evolution Carter Verhaeghe has made to become one of the more dangerous offensive weapons since he joined the Florida Panthers continues to show that sometimes even great franchises can make mistakes. Even since Verhaeghe wasn’t qualified by the Tampa Bay Lightning, his skills and the added earned ice time he’s gotten in Sunrise have allowed him to score 0.81 points per game with the Panthers. Last season, he scored a team-high and career-high 42 goals and was third on the team in points with 73. More vitally, 35 of his goals came at even strength, fourth most in the NHL behind David Pastrnak, Mikko Rantanen, and Connor McDavid. Verhaeghe played most of the season on a line with Matthew Tkachuk and that’s a good way to earn points, but he also saw a lot of time with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Bennett. His ability to fit in well with top talent and then also become the top talent with them showed how vital he’s become to the Panthers and how he can easily fly under the radar of opponents. Last season was his best in the NHL offensively, but he’s consistently played top-six minutes for the Panthers. What made the biggest difference? He started to shoot the puck a lot more. His 275 shots on goal were a career high by more than 100 shots. If it was coach Paul Maurice’s idea to get him to shoot it more, the advice paid off in a big way.
Since joining Florida, Sam Bennett hasn’t just embraced the role of a grinder, he’s embodied it wholeheartedly. After shaking off the expectations that come with being the No. 3 pick in 2014, Bennett has become a physical force for the Panthers, and it’s helped him unlock more of his offensive game. Bennett had a career high 49 points two seasons ago and followed it up with his second 40-point season. His goal numbers dropped, but he missed 19 games with injury and his shooting percentage was down from the previous year. As it was, he still averaged better than a half-point per game (0.63) and he had a career high 150 hits. Bennett’s value in all facets was obvious from 5-on-5 to power play to shorthanded as well. Bennett anchoring Florida’s second line and providing an added physical element between scoring wingers like Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk makes them the kind of line that can score goals and wear out opponents with the body. It took Bennett almost no time at all to not just fit in with Florida but also embody the spirit the team plays with. He’s relentless on the forecheck and along the boards and corners, he plays with enough skill to keep opponents on their toes, and he can help turn a game on its head with the body or the puck on his stick.
Since Lundell became a fixture in the Panthers lineup after being a first-round pick in 2020, he’s given them the kind of solid all-around play teams look for in the middle of the forward group. Lundell has been a solid possession player at 5-on-5 as well as an on-the-puck defender. After he debuted in 2021-2022 with 18 goals and 44 points in 65 games, his scoring came down a little with 12 goals and 33 points in 73 games last season. A key factor there was his shooting percentage dropped from 14.4 percent to 7.9. He shot about as much and often as his rookie season, so it will be interesting to see which shooting percentage shakes out as regular in his third season. Given he’s Florida’s third line center, the stress on offense doesn’t need to be so high, but anything more is a big help. Lundell played most of his 5-on-5 minutes with Sam Reinhart on his wing and while they produced strong advanced numbers, Florida scored 19 goals and allowed 28 when they were together. Lundell’s bad luck shooting played a part in that because his defensive numbers were strong otherwise. Lundell has earned a lot of trust from the coaches and he’s a key player in all situations playing on the power play and the penalty kill alike. The way he plays hints that an offensive breakout could come at any moment.
After making his way around the NHL the past few seasons from Buffalo to Pittsburgh and Colorado, Evan Rodrigues at last landed a multi-year contract with the Panthers this summer. Rodrigues has proven to be a valuable depth player capable of playing up in the lineup as well. He put up 43 points with Pittsburgh two seasons ago and 39 with Colorado last season in 13 fewer games. Those kinds of numbers make him a solid second- or third-line player but it’s possible he could join Aleksander Barkov and former Sabres teammate Sam Reinhart at the top of the lineup. Rodrigues’ skill set leans strongly offensive with good possession stats (only Cale Makar had a better 5-on-5 shot attempt percentage) as well as expected goals. Rodrigues may not be a household name, but he’s shown he can play very well with the likes of Sidney Crosby and Jack Eichel in past years and if he should wind up with Barkov or even Matthew Tkachuk the adjustment period should be relatively short for him. His offensive instincts are strong and any talent he might lack in physical play or foot speed is made up by his intelligence within the game. He’s usually in the right place and that’s what makes him even more valuable to his teammates. The Panthers picking him up relatively inexpensively for a few years will pay off well with victories.
After two seasons of being a depth forward in the Panthers lineup, Eetu Luostarinen broke out last year to be one of their secret weapons. Luostarinen posted career highs in goals (17), assists (26), and points (43). His production earned him a boost in ice time as well as power play time to go along with his extensive penalty kill work. Luostarinen evolving into a solid two-way forward has allowed the Panthers to organically deepen their roster. It was unknown what kind of player Luostarinen would turn out to be when Florida acquired him and three other players from Carolina for Vincent Trocheck, but that he’s not only carved his way into the lineup and stuck but also become a player opponents must be wary of speaks volumes to his ability. They’ll need him to continue his upward trajectory to maneuver through the Eastern Conference for a return to the Stanley Cup Final. With 34 of his 43 points coming during 5-on-5 play, it bodes well for him and the team to see continued success.
After bouncing around to five other teams during his NHL career, Nick Cousins found a home with the Panthers last season and made the most of it. He posted his best offensive numbers since 2018-2019 with Arizona, matching a career high in points with 27 including nine goals. As solid as he played in a third- and fourth-line role for Florida during the regular season, he was a clutch player in the postseason putting up seven points including scoring the series-clinching goal against Toronto in the second round. Throughout his career he’s had positive numbers regarding puck possession and his performance with Florida, while below his career average (53.2), was still a net positive at more than 51 percent in shots attempted at 5-on-5. Cousins’ aggressive forecheck and willingness to play the body and irritate foes worked well for Florida and he maximized his output while averaging a little more than 11 minutes of ice time per game. Cousins enters the 2023-2024 season in the final year of his contract and if he’s able to continue how he played last season, an extended stay in Sunrise wouldn’t be out of the question. While fourth line players are in abundance, finding ones that work well with the system and the rest of the roster can be a volatile experiment year to year. If Cousins has a repeat performance, Florida will be more than happy to keep him.
It’s kind of fascinating how Aaron Ekblad was able to fly under the radar for the Panthers last season. He’s perhaps the main name player opponents would zero in on in game planning because they know he’ll play a ton of minutes (averaged 23:24 per game last season) and he has the reputation for being an extremely good player all-around on the blue line. He had 38 points last season including 14 goals, a down year compared to two seasons ago when he had 57 points and 15 goals in 10 fewer games played. He had similar success on the power play with 19 points last season after 20 two years ago and he was paired up almost exclusively with Gustav Forsling at 5-on-5 with more than 910 minutes played together. Ekblad’s possession and expected goal percentages were strong, just not quite as good as a handful of his defensive teammates. That he had the third most points among defensemen says more about how good his teammates were and not so much that he performed poorly. Florida’s top four on defense were outstanding and Ekblad was vital to that end. He’s a leader of this group and because he’s been there the longest that carries a lot of weight. That he’ll miss the early part of the season because of offseason shoulder surgery from injuries sustained in the run to the Cup final will hurt, particularly with Brandon Montour also out.
Seeing Erik Karlsson put up 100 points as a defenseman was stunning, but that performance overshadowed the legendary work from Brandon Montour during the regular season and playoffs. He had 16 goals and 73 points during the season (tied for fifth with Rasmus Dahlin and Miro Heiskanen) and another eight goals and 13 points in the postseason (tied for second-most among defensemen with Shea Theodore and trailing Evan Bouchard). Montour’s regular season point total nearly doubled his previous career high of 37 set two years ago and his 16 goals set a new personal high mark. Montour’s explosion as an offensive force helped unleash the Panthers offense in full because he provided a consistent threat to score from the blue line. No longer were their blue liners there mostly to maintain possession and occasionally shoot from the point, Montour would drive the net and work all around the attack zone to drive the offense. How he follows up this season will be interesting given that it’s a contract season for him and he’ll miss the early part of the season recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. When he’s back in November or December, expect him to pick up right where he left off.
Injuries to Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour created a massive hole in the Panthers defense to start this season and while that will create opportunities for some, it opened the door for Florida to bring Oliver Ekman-Larsson who’s looking to prove he’s still got it. Ekman-Larsson was bought out of his contract by the Vancouver Canucks after another subpar season in which he had two goals and 22 points in 54 games while also posting a minus-24 rating. In each of his two seasons with the Canucks he produced less than a half point per game and maxed out last season with 0.41 points per game. He averaged 0.5 per game throughout his career in Arizona so the downturn he made the moment he turned 30 was alarming to say the least. But he joins the Panthers who are in desperate need of help on a one-year contract. Without Ekblad and Montour, Ekman-Larsson likely slides in on the second pairing where he should get power play time and ample opportunity to show if he’s still got it or not. If he’s unable to find a spark with a talented Florida group, it may prove to be difficult for him to latch on elsewhere in the years to come.
The evolution in Gustav Forsling’s game since he arrived in Florida in 2021 off waivers from Carolina has been remarkable. In three seasons with Florida, he’s piled up 95 points (in 196 games) and is coming off a career year in 2022-2023 in which he set personal highs in goals (13) assists (28) and points (41) and this came on the heels of putting up 37 points the previous year. Forsling has become a steady blue liner capable of playing first or second pairing minutes with a responsible defensive game to go with his solid offensive contributions. Forsling has chipped in on the power play but has been more of a fixture on the team’s penalty kill. When you factor in his advanced numbers, he has some of the best on the team in terms of possession and expected goals. All of this coming from a player whom Carolina didn’t have room for, and Chicago traded before that makes Forsling a great example of what it means to take advantage of an opportunity. It will be worth watching to see who Forsling will pair with to start the season as he was almost exclusively Aaron Ekblad’s partner last season. With Ekblad out for the first couple months of the season, he may wind up with any of Josh Mahura, Dmitry Kulikov, Mike Reilly, or a dark horse contender. One thing’s for sure, Florida will need him to be a rock while Ekblad and Montour miss the first part of the regular season.
Just when everyone thought Sergei Bobrovsky would be the downfall of the Florida Panthers, he brought them - with a little help from his surprising tandem partner - to the brink of a championship. Long considered a perennial playoff choker, Bobrovsky trotted out his best postseason performance to date during Florida’s darling run to the Stanley Cup Final in the spring, holding steady through a 19-game stretch and helping get his team just three wins from the coveted trophy. That was no small feat, either; Florida ran into a series of Eastern Conference powerhouses en route to their matchup with Las Vegas, all done with Bobrovsky and Alex Lyon as their options while newcomer Spencer Knight was away from the team as a part of the NHL Player Assistance Program.
Bobrovsky, at this point, is entering the years of his contract that were expected to be value lost for the Panthers - which puts both him and the team in a fairly unique position. He underwhelmed during the first half of his contract, trotting out one of his worst seasons in the league his first year with Florida before getting himself back to good – but still never as great as he was in Columbus – form in net. And while the expectation was likely that the team would heavily rely upon him during his ‘strong’ first few years and slowly transition the team over to Spencer Knight’s hands, the former first-round pick put up mediocre numbers during his first NHL appearances and spent the final half of last season away from the team as a part of the league’s assistance program. He’s returned to the team, practicing with their development camp in mid-July, but it remains to be seen just how many starts he’ll get – putting more of the pressure back onto Bobrovsky to spend an extra year at the helm before the transition is able to really get under way. And as always, that comes with an interesting set of hypotheticals. When he was turning away every advance against the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Final, he looked like the goaltender everyone envied on the Blue Jackets a few short years ago. His speed, agility, and game reads were as good as ever, with his ability to utilize a well-above average level of flexibility to reach impossible shots and his ability to remain engaged even after allowing a rebound into traffic both looking like he never saw any game regression. But every year since joining the Panthers, Bobrovksy has been plagued with inconsistency in his form. When he’s off his game, the entire game falls apart - and he’s experienced that for enough stretches over enough seasons (and during the final game against Vegas this June) that it’s impossible to write off the possibility that Florida will get that version of him next year. He remains a frustrating roll of the dice every time he steps out onto the ice, which leaves Florida unable to point to any single part of their goaltending tandem as a sure thing.
Projected starts: 50-55
Spencer Knight - G
Six months away from the game can be tough on any NHLer. For goaltender Spencer Knight, though, it could be especially tough.
The Panthers now have 57 games worth of film footage with Knight in net to evaluate his play, which looked promising but inconsistent over the course of his first two years in the league. The hope, though, is that Knight will see his time in the NHL’s Player Assistance Program – where he spent nearly six months after leaving the team in February of this past campaign – benefit his on-ice play as much as it benefitted him in his everyday life. He wouldn’t be the first player to take time away from the game to receive counseling and stage an easy to root for comeback; goaltenders Robin Lehner and Conor Ingram have both become success stories after their own times stepping away from the game, and the hope is that Knight will also be able to see the benefits of newfound clarity and health.
At the moment, though, Panthers fans likely need to temper their expectations for him – at least at the start of the season. Luckily, it appears the team has prepared for that by bringing in veteran NHL-AHL tweener Anthony Stolarz on a one-year deal. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Stolarz make some appearances during the year as well before Knight finds his stride.
If he’s able to get back to where he was when he was drafted, though, the Panthers could be a formidable option to return the center stage this upcoming June. If they were able to push through the East with Bobrovsky and Alex Lyon, it’s hard to imagine they wouldn’t be able to do even better with a healthy and confident Knight.
Projected starts: 25-30

The Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers meet in what may be, by temperature, the hottest Stanley Cup Final in history. Vegas finished the regular season with 111 points, tops in the Western Conference. The Golden Knights have advanced to the Final round of the postseason tournament after defeating the Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, and Winnipeg Jets.
It has been a decidedly different path to the Final for the Florida Panthers, who snuck into the postseason with 92 points, the fewest of any team to qualify for the playoffs.
The Panthers eliminated the Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Carolina Hurricanes – the first, fourth, and second-place teams in the league, respectively, during the regular season – on the way to this matchup with the fifth-place Golden Knights.
If Florida is going to win, there will be no doubt that they have earned it, going through such a daunting path.
Jack Eichel’s first playoff appearance has been a long time coming, but he is making the most of it. Eichel has 18 points in 17 games to lead the Golden Knights and has formed an outstanding line with Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault. The trio has controlled 56.2% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 12-4 during five-on-five play.
Marchessault has nine goals and 17 points, leading the Golden Knights with 62 shots on goal in 17 playoff contests. Barbashev, a pending free agent, is raising his offseason price tag with every game, contributing 15 points and playing a hard game, delivering 51 hits.
Part of what has made the Golden Knights so dangerous in the playoffs is their outstanding depth. Beyond the top line, captain Mark Stone has 15 points and Chandler Stephenson has 14. They skate on a line with Brett Howden, who has six points to go along with 51 hits.
William Karlsson centers the third line for Vegas and, in addition to fulfilling a checking role, also leads the Golden Knights with 10 goals in the playoffs. Reilly Smith chipped in 11 points and that pair of original Golden Knights have been joined by Michael Amadio, who has contributed seven points in 11 playoff games.
Vegas’ fourth line of William Carrier, Nicolas Roy, and Keegan Kolesar can hold their own and bring a physical presence. The Golden Knights have such strong depth that Teddy Blueger and Phil Kessel have been reduced to being part-time players, sitting for more games than they have dressed for in the playoffs.
Coming off his second consecutive 100-point season, Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk was already a star, but he has taken his game to a new level for the Panthers in the playoffs, leading the team with nine goals, 21 points, and four game-winning goals in 16 playoff games. He has been the proverbial straw that stirs the drink for the Panthers.
Tkachuk has mostly been skating on a line with Sam Bennett and Nick Cousins. Tkachuk and Bennett are not afraid to turn the game into a street fight, playing with the hard physical edge that is expected in playoff hockey.
Aleksander Barkov was the Panthers’ leader before Tkachuk arrived and has not been a dominant performer in the playoffs. He has 14 points and his line with Carter Verhaeghe and Anthony Duclair has outscored opponents 8-4 during five-on-five play, but that trio has also managed just 43.2% of expected goals, so there is room for improvement. Verhaeghe ranks second on the Panthers with 15 playoff points, while Duclair has contributed nine points.
Sam Reinhart is over-qualified as a third-line player, but he helps to diversify the Panthers’ attack, skating with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen. Reinhart ranks second among the Panthers with seven goals in the playoffs.
While forward depth is a clear strength for the Golden Knights, it is a notable weakness for the Panthers. Lundell and Luostarinen have three goals between them and fourth line contributors Eric Staal, Colin White, and either Ryan Lomberg or Zac Dalpe has combined for three goals. That is not a lot of production out of the lower half of the forward depth chart.
If the Panthers are going to compete in this series, they will likely need more contributions further down the lineup because it is asking a lot for Tkachuk to continue carrying the offense to the degree that he has so far in the postseason.
While all three of Vegas’ defense pairings are outscoring the opposition, only the duo of Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore is also driving play, controlling 54.5% of expected goals with Vegas outscoring opponents 11-8 with McNabb and Theodore on the ice during five-on-five play. Theodore has seven points in 16 playoff games, which is behind his regular-season pace of 41 points in 55 games.
Alex Pietrangelo leads Golden Knights defensemen with nine points in the postseason, and the Golden Knights are outscoring opponents 16-7 with Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez on the ice, despite managing 46.4% of expected goals, during five-on-five play.
Similarly, Vegas has outscored opponents 12-4 with the third pair of Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud on the ice during five-on-five play, despite managing 45.9% of expected goals. They do tend to play quite a bit to be considered the third pairing, as Hague and Whitecloud have seen the most five-on-five action of any Golden Knights defense tandem in the playoffs.
Florida’s defense is led by Brandon Montour, who has scored six goals in the playoffs, and leads the Panthers with 59 shots on goal. However, he has been paired with Marc Staal and the Panthers have been outscored 10-7 while getting just 41.2% of expected goals during five-on-five play with that duo on the ice. That could be a concern when facing a Vegas team with a lot of forwards capable of taking advantage against suspect defense.
The Panthers are outscoring opponents 10-5 with Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling on the ice even though they have generated 46.1% of expected goals at five-on-five. Montour, Forsling, and Ekblad are all averaging more than 24 minutes of ice time per game in the playoffs, so Florida does tend to lean on their top defenders.
Florida’s third pairing of Radko Gudas and Josh Mahura does not play as much, but they have been relatively effective. The Panthers have pulled nearly 55.0% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 5-4 with Gudas and Mahura on the ice.
Florida’s defensive track record in the playoffs has been subpar. They have allowed 33.3 shots against per 60 minutes in all situations, which is the second highest among all playoff teams. To be fair, Vegas has allowed 31.4 shots against per 60 minutes, which is fourth highest, so neither team has been in shutdown mode on the path to the Final. Of course, Florida has a secret weapon of sorts when the defense has faltered.
After playing at a below average level for three of the past four seasons, and not even starting the playoffs as the Panthers’ No.1 goaltender, Sergei Bobrovsky heads into the Cup Final as the odds-on favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy. In 14 playoff games, Bobrovsky has a .935 save percentage and leads all goaltenders with 19.45 Goals Saved Above Expected. He is a two-time Vezina Trophy winner, so it’s not like this performance is completely out of nowhere, but there has not been a lot in recent seasons to suggest that this level of play was still possible. Can he keep it up for one more round?
If Bobrovsky is an unlikely goalie to backstop a team to the Stanley Cup, what would that say about Vegas’ Adin Hill? The goaltending carousel has been turning all season for the Golden Knights, with injuries forcing the team to start five different goaltenders after presumed No. 1 Robin Lehner was deemed out for the season. In the playoffs Laurent Brossoit started for Vegas, but Hill has stepped in and delivered high quality performance, posting a .937 save percentage with 10.78 Goals Saved Above Expected in 11 games.
The team that gets the better goaltending should have an edge in the series. The challenge is figuring out which one of these surprising goaltending stories will continue.
Vegas’ power play has been a problem area for the entire playoffs and their 4.75 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play is the worst among teams that advanced beyond the first round. The Golden Knights have 10 power play goals in 17 playoff games, with Eichel and Stone both accounting for three.
With 9.30 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four action, Florida’s power play has been a little more dangerous, tallying 12 goals in 16 playoff games, led by Tkachuk with four and Reinhart with three.
This power play edge may not fully materialize for Florida, however, because Vegas has been very disciplined in its approach, spending 4:22 per game shorthanded, compared to 5:29 per game for the Panthers.
It is a good thing that Vegas does not take many penalties, because they have been utterly helpless when trying to kill them, allowing the highest rate of shot attempts, shots, and expected goals against during four-on-five play in the postseason. They get bailed out by goaltending from time to time, but if the Golden Knights take penalties, that would just be asking for trouble.
Florida’s penalty killing has not been terribly effective either, allowing higher than average rates of shot attempts, shots, and expected goals against during four-on-five play. This could be an area of vulnerability for Florida, but only if Vegas can somehow turn their power play into a viable threat.
Vegas has been the more effective team during five-on-five play, but neither team has controlled play with real authority. Both the Panthers and Golden Knights have reached this point thanks in large part to outstanding goaltending and that puts a lot of pressure on Bobrovsky and Hill going into the Final. In a tightly contested series, Vegas’ superior depth gives them a slight edge. Golden Knights in 7.
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TORONTO vs. FLORIDA
The Toronto Maple Leafs are in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2004 and have home ice advantage after the Florida Panthers pulled off a massive upset against the top-seeded Boston Bruins in the first round.
Now that they have broken the first-round seal, are the Maple Leafs ready to go on a Stanley Cup run? Can the Panthers carry their first-round magic forward? Ousting the Lightning and the Bruins, respectively, opens up potential opportunities for the team that can emerge from the Atlantic Division.
Toronto’s high-priced forwards have taken plenty of criticism over the years for not rising to the occasion in the playoffs, but Toronto’s big dogs showed up against Tampa Bay. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander produced 13 goals and 34 points against Tampa Bay. The supporting cast matters but getting production from the stars at the top of the depth chart sets the foundation for a team to achieve success.
One of Toronto’s apparent strengths is that they have solid contributors beyond the core four. Ryan O’Reilly contributed seven points in the first round and Calle Jarnkrok moved up to play with Matthews and Marner. Rookie Matthew Knies added three assists and the Leafs controlled 57.4% of expected goals with him on the ice during five-on-five play.
Michael Bunting was suspended for three games in the series against Tampa Bay, then was a healthy scratch for Game 5, so he has more to offer, and it might be further down the depth chart because Toronto’s fourth line of Zach Aston-Reese, David Kampf, and Sam Lafferty managed 35.9% of shot attempts and 32.9% of expected goals during five-on-five play against Tampa Bay.
Matthew Tkachuk had an incredible season for the Panthers and carried that play into the playoffs against Boston. The Panthers’ winger put up 11 points and 22 shots on goal in the first round, with Florida controlling 63.4% of expected goals against Boston when Tkachuk was on the ice during five-on-five play. The Maple Leafs will need to find a solution to the problem that Tkachuk presents as a skilled and physical force.
Sam Bennett got into the Boston series in Game 2 and was an impact performer, with five points and 20 shots on goal in six games. Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, Eetu Luostarinen, and Anton Lundell all played solid contributing roles against the Bruins.
Maybe the most surprising part for Florida is that Aleksander Barkov had a hard time against Boston. He produced one goal and six points, but the Panthers only held 40.4% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Barkov on the ice. For a Panthers team that tends to lean on their stars, Barkov will need to elevate his game if they are going to advance.
After an up-and-down regular season, Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly stepped up and delivered an outstanding series against Tampa Bay. Rielly had three goals and eight points against Tampa Bay with Toronto getting 56.7% of expected goals and outscoring the Lightning 9-3 during five-on-five play with Rielly on the ice. Luke Schenn was frequently paired with Rielly and while Schenn struggled late in the regular season, he was excellent against Tampa Bay, with Toronto pulling 61.1% of expected goals with Schenn on the ice.
T.J. Brodie and Jake McCabe are an effective shutdown pair for Toronto, with McCabe providing a necessary physical element. Schenn and McCabe combined for 66 hits in the first round.
The third pairing was a trouble spot for Toronto against Tampa Bay. Justin Holl and Mark Giordano had just 40.0% of expected goals during five-on-five play and the Leafs were out-scored 9-2 during five-on-five play when Holl was on the ice against Tampa Bay. As a result, Timothy Liljegren and Erik Gustafsson were pressed into action in Game 6. It would make sense for Toronto to give Liljegren a chance to upgrade that pairing but it would not be a surprise for Holl to get a fresh start against the Panthers.
Brandon Montour’s breakout season continued in the first round against Boston. The right-shot blueliner put up five goals and eight points with 22 shots on goal. His confidence is soaring, and he is always ready to launch one-timers from the point on the power play. Montour has been paired with Marc Staal so that duo is vulnerable during five-on-five play. They had 40.5% of expected goals and were outscored 6-3 against the Bruins.
Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling formed an effective shutdown pair against Boston, controlling 55.1% of expected goals while the Panthers outscored the Bruins 8-2 with that duo on the ice during five-on-five play.
Josh Mahura was an under-the-radar pleasant surprise for Florida in the first round. Acquired off waivers from the Anaheim Ducks before the start of the season, Mahura averaged less than 11 minutes per game against Boston, but the Panthers earned 54.4% of shot attempts and 63.2% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Mahura on the ice. Radko Gudas stands out as the heavy hitter on this blueline, but he is somewhat vulnerable if he gets caught out there against speedy and skilled forwards.
Toronto’s group is steadier overall, but both teams have some question marks on the back end, which could ultimately cause problems.
Although he experienced some highs and lows against Tampa Bay, Ilya Samsonov ultimately picked up his first career playoff series victory. His save percentage was just .900, and he let in a few soft goals, but he had stellar performances in Game 3 and Game 6. Given his lack of a playoff track record, there is still plenty of uncertainty around Samsonov heading into this series, but he is clearly Toronto’s number one option with Joseph Woll in the backup role.
The Panthers opened the playoffs with Alex Lyon starting in goal against Boston and he had a .902 save percentage in three games, but Florida eventually turned to Sergei Bobrovsky, who is a high-wire act at this point.
Bobrovsky was erratic in games four and six against Boston and was excellent in game five and seven, ultimately backstopping the Panthers to three straight wins to finish the series. Bobrovsky has a .900 save percentage in 56 career playoff games, including .891 in five appearances this spring, so he is not an easy man to trust under these circumstances.
Goaltending is always important in the postseason, but it would be fair to say that both the Maple Leafs and Panthers have some uncertainty at the position heading into Round 2.
Toronto’s power play was among the best during the regular season and that carries over into the playoffs. During five-on-four play, the Leafs scored 12.48 goals per 60 minutes, ranking fifth among 16 playoff teams in the first round. Toronto’s big boys were firing on the power play, with Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, and O’Reilly all getting on the board against the Lightning.
Florida was closer to the middle of the pack, ranking ninth with 7.60 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. Tkachuk led the way with five power play points and Montour added a pair of power play goals against the Bruins.
Tampa Bay’s power play posed a problem for the Maple Leafs in the first round, scoring 10.92 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranked 10th. However, that was still more successful than the Panthers, who allowed 15.31 goals per 60 minutes, ranking 13th among playoff teams. A compounding issue for Florida is that they were one of three teams in the first round to spend more than six minutes per game playing four-on-five. By comparison, the Maple Leafs averaged 4:34 per game. That discipline could make a difference.
Toronto had some good fortune against Tampa Bay, picking up three overtime wins, including some in games that they did not necessarily deserve to win. For a team that is now a co-favorite to win the Stanley Cup and had a long drought of not winning a playoff series, they are in good position, but can hardly afford to look past the Panthers.
While Florida’s upset of the Bruins seems monumental because Boston just put up the most regular season points in history, the underlying numbers suggested that Florida was better than their place in the standings and they caught enough breaks to make the difference. If they could do that against Boston, who is to say that is couldn’t happen against Toronto? I’ll side with the Maple Leafs…cautiously. Maple Leafs in 6.
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The Boston Bruins accrued 135 points, the most ever in a National Hockey League season, and they are the Stanley Cup favorites heading into the postseason. The Florida Panthers won the Presidents’ Trophy last season, but it was a much more difficult path to reach the playoffs this year.
Naturally, the Bruins are expected to win their first round series against the Panthers, but it could be closer than the standings might suggest.
The Bruins’ attack is paced by right winger David Pastrnak, who led the team with 61 goals and 113 points, but he has a strong supporting cast. Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand may be getting older, but they are still dominant two-way players. Bergeron is 37 years old, and the Bruins controlled 63.2% of expected goals and 71.3% of goals during five-on-five play when he was on the ice. It’s preposterous.
Jake DeBrusk, Pavel Zacha, and David Krejci all had at least 50 points. Charlie Coyle, Taylor Hall, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Trent Frederic all provide additional scoring depth. This is one of Boston’s big advantages – scoring threats throughout the lineup.
Florida is more top heavy, with Matthew Tkachuk both the scoring and spiritual leader of the group, putting up 40 goals and 109 points with 123 penalty minutes. If the Panthers are going to pull off the upset, they will need Tkachuk to continue his outstanding play. After the trade deadline, he produced 12 goals and 30 points with 85 shots on goal in 19 games. Carter Verhaeghe, with a career-high 42 goals, and Aleksander Barkov, who topped 75 points for the fourth time in his career, are the other top scoring threats for the Panthers.
Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett are quality secondary scoring options and Bennett does have a knack for rising to the occasion in the postseason, putting up 21 points in 30 games over his past four playoff appearances. Bennett has also been out since March 20 with a lower-body injury, leaving his status questionable for the start of the playoffs. A supporting cast that includes Anthony Duclair, Anton Lundell, and Eetu Luostarinen has some potential but, overall, the Bruins have a deeper forward group.
Boston brings one of the best bluelines in the league to this series. Hampus Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy are both legitimate No. 1 defensemen worthy of Norris Trophy votes and having two players of that calibre is a luxury available to precious few teams. Adding Dmitry Orlov at the trade deadline only made the group stronger as it gives the Bruins another well-rounded blueliner who can move the puck but handle defensive responsibility, too. Matt Grzelcyk adds mobility while Brandon Carlo, Connor Clifton, and Derek Forbort bring more of a physical presence to the game. While the Bruins defense is strong, the defensive results since the trade deadline are relatively mediocre, with Boston ranking 14th in all-situations shots against and expected goals against per 60 minutes. It’s not egregiously terrible, but it is not as dominant as the Bruins were earlier in the season.
Brandon Montour emerged as a premier offensive defenseman this season, finishing in a tie for fifth among blueliners with 73 points while playing a career-high 24:08 per game. Montour averaged more than three shots on goal per game, a big jump from his previous high of 2.21 shots per game, set in 2018-2019. Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad both logged more than 23 minutes per game, and they form a solid nucleus on the blueline. It’s beyond those three where the questions start to hit. Marc Staal, Radko Gudas, and Josh Mahura round out the top six and that looks like a defense that will eventually get exposed against Boston’s forwards. The Panthers ranked 22nd in all-situations shots against and 23rd in expected goals against per 60 minutes, so there is a defensive vulnerability that lingers over this Panthers team.
Maybe the biggest edge that the Bruins hold in this series is the potential goaltending advantage offered by Linus Ullmark, who is favored to win the Vezina Trophy after leading the league in wins (40), goals against average (1.89), and save percentage (.938). Jeremy Swayman gives the Bruins an excellent secondary option in goal, delivering a .920 save percentage for the season, but a .932 mark in 23 games after the calendar flipped to 2023.
While Boston has two strong options between the pipes, the Panthers have more question marks. AHL call-up Alex Lyon played big role in Florida’s late season push to the playoffs. He is a 30-year-old journeyman who had a .912 save percentage in a career-high 15 games but had a .943 save percentage in his last eight starts. Goaltending is unpredictable at the best of times, but just about anything can happen in small samples, and that could include Lyon making a name for himself by stonewalling the top team in the league. If Lyon turns into a kitty cat, a now-healthy Sergei Bobrovsky would be available for the Panthers. The 34-year-old was mediocre during the regular season and has a spotty playoff track record, but it would come as no surprise if Florida’s $10 million goaltender appeared in this series.
Both the Bruins and Panthers are above average with the man advantage. Boston scored 8.21 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play, which ranked eighth. Pastrnak led the Bruins with 18 power play goals, followed by Bergeron and Marchand, both with nine. Florida scored 7.92 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, ranking 10th. Reinhart tallied 16 power play goals and Tkachuk added 14, while Barkov and Ekblad both contributed eight. The Panthers spent 5:26 per game at five-on-four, tops among all playoff teams.
Penalty killing is a significant advantage for the Bruins, as Boston ranked first in expected goals against and actual goals against per 60 minutes during four-on-five play. Their goaltending has been great, but Boston has allowed the lowest rate of shots against per 60 in those situations, too. Florida had slightly better than average penalty killing results, but that is still operating at a deficit against Boston.
As great as the regular season was for the Bruins, their possession numbers do not quite match their historically dominant place in the standings, so they are probably not as good as 135 points would suggest. At the same time, the Panthers had better possession numbers than their 92-point season would indicate and might be better than their point total. With Tkachuk leading the way, the Panthers could be a lively underdog if they can get quality goaltending. That ‘if’ is a big factor, though, so Boston is still the pick to advance. Bruins in 6.
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This week, rookies are making their mark late in the season. From Wyatt Johnston in Dallas to Joel Hofer in St. Louis to Luke Evangelista in Nashville, there are some fresh faces getting the job done. When it comes to the veterans, Mattias Ekholm and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are bringing late-season value, too.

#1 The leading rookie goal scorer is now Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston, who has taken on more responsibility for a division-leading team down the stretch. In his past 14 games, Johnston has 12 points (8 G, 4 A) and 37 shots on goal while playing more than 17 minutes per game. He has thrived skating in between veterans Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov and this looks like just the beginning for a 19-year-old who scored 124 points in 68 games for Windsor of the Ontario Hockey League last season.
#2 While the expectation seems to be that St. Louis Blues rookie goaltender Joel Hofer is getting some late season action to prepare for the backup role next season. It might be premature to decide that the 22-year-old is only suited for the No. 2 job. In four starts since getting called up, Hofer is rocking a .944 save percentage, so not only does he have potential dynasty league value, but he could add goaltending value late this season, too.
#3 After scoring 41 points (9 G, 32 A) in 49 games for Milwaukee in the AHL, Luke Evangelista is getting a late-season audition with the Nashville Predators, and he has taken full advantage of the opportunity. In a dozen games with the Preds, Evangelista has produced nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 30 shots on goal, earning a spot on the first power play unit and he played a career-high 20:28 in Thursday’s 2-1 shootout win against Seattle.
#4 When the Edmonton Oilers acquired Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline, the obvious appeal was Ekholm’s shutdown defensive play. However, Ekholm is not just putting it high and hard off the glass – he can make plays, too. In 11 games for the Oilers, Ekholm has put up nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 22 shots on goal. Mix in 18 hits and 19 blocked shots and the big blueliner is worthy of fantasy consideration.
#5 With Brock Nelson leaving Tuesday’s win over Toronto early and Mathew Barzal already out of the lineup, the Islanders need Jean-Gabriel Pageau to step up after returning from his own upper-body injury. Pageau missed more than a month of action and, upon getting back into the lineup, immediately embarked on a four-game point streak, scoring six points (2 G, 4 A) in the process.
#6 Veteran Calgary Flames center Mikael Backlund has 49 points, giving him a good chance to surpass his career high of 53 points set in 2016-2017. While points have run hot and cold at times for Backlund, he has become an elite shot generator in the second half of the season. In 35 games since the calendar flipped to 2023, Backlund has 30 points (10 G, 20 A) and 127 shots on goal, which ties him with Pittsburgh’s Jake Guentzel for 10th in the league over that time.
#7 Another premier shot generator, who is still available in many league, Los Angeles Kings winger Viktor Arvidsson has put 49 shots on goal in his past 10 games, the highest per-game shot rate since February 28. Arvidsson is up to 48 points (20 G, 28 A) on the season, putting him within range of his first 50-point season since 2017-2018. He forms an effective two-way line for the Kings, skating alongside Phillip Danault and Trevor Moore.
#8 San Jose Sharks center Tomas Hertl is hardly flying under the radar, but mediocre goal and shot rates this season made him more readily available for fantasy managers. Late in the season, Hertl has become more aggressive offensively, and has contributed nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 36 shots on goal in his past 10 games. The Sharks are rather lean when it comes to forward talent, so Hertl is skating between Noah Gregor and Kevin Labanc, not exactly ideal linemates to maintain a high level of production. On the other hand, that might contribute to Hertl’s newfound willingness to shoot the puck.
#9 Evangelista is not the only Predators youngster contributing to the club’s surprising late push for the playoffs. Philip Tomasino has produced 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in his past 15 games, and has earned a regular spot alongside Cody Glass and Matt Duchene on one of Nashville’s scoring lines. Tomasino had 32 points with Nashville last season but started this season in the AHL, scoring 32 points (12 G, 20 A) in 38 games. It appears that the 21-year-old is better equipped to handle more offensive responsibility now.
#10 After tallying 20 points (9 G, 11 A) in 29 games for the Grand Rapids Griffins in the AHL, 32-year-old winger Alex Chiasson earned another shot in the NHL with the Detroit Red Wings. In 10 games for Detroit, Chiasson has seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 16 shots on goal – impressive production for a guy playing 11 minutes per game, but he is an effective net front presence on the power play, scoring four of his five goals with the man advantage.
#11 Evan Rodrigues has been a quality contributor for the Avalanche when healthy this season but, like many Avs, has had to deal with injuries. He has landed in concussion protocol this week, creating an opportunity for Denis Malgin to move up to Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. While Malgin has seven points (5 G, 2 A) in his past 10 games, the more important part is that he has played more than 15 minutes in the past two games. That is the first time since January 2 that he has hit that ice time threshold.
#12 At his best, Washington Capitals right winger Tom Wilson can be a fantasy hockey difference maker. This season, he missed a bunch of time while recovering from a torn ACL and struggled upon returning to action, but he is getting back to peak performance. In his past 16 games, Wilson has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 38 shots on goal. Of course, being Tom Wilson, he also has 42 hits and that is what makes him a major fantasy threat and worth adding if he is still available in your league.
#13 Vegas Golden Knights right winger Pavel Dorofeyev got into three games in December but did not find the scoresheet before returning to the AHL. Since getting called back up, he has delivered six points (4 G, 2 A) with 16 shots on goal in six games. He only had 17 points (9 G, 8 A) in 32 AHL games, so it is fair to be skeptical of Dorofeyev’s small sample NHL production, but he is getting a quality opportunity, skating on Vegas’ second line with Reilly Smith and William Karlsson.
#14 When Kirill Kaprizov was injured, I speculated that veteran Marcus Johansson might have an opportunity to play a bigger role for the Minnesota Wild and that has turned out to be the case. In his past seven games, Johansson has eight points (2 G, 6 A) and has played more than 15 minutes in six of those contests. He is thriving on a line with Joel Eriksson Ek at center and Matt Boldy on right wing, which presents a strong opportunity for the veteran left winger to contribute offensively.
#15 It can be easy for Boston Bruins center Charlie Coyle to get overlooked as he is not a star player and falls behind bigger names on the depth chart. Nevertheless, the 31-year-old center is finishing strong, with 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in his past 11 games and he is doing this without a regular role on the power play, playing with Tyler Bertuzzi and Trent Frederic at evens, a line that can have a physical impact on the game before they even worry about putting pucks in the net.
#16 When the Vancouver Canucks acquired defenseman Filip Hronek at the trade deadline, he was dealing with an upper-body injury, but he was finally cleared to play Thursday night against San Jose. He logged 24:25 of ice time in his first game for the Canucks and while Hronek did not record a point, he is clearly going to play a big role for Vancouver for the rest of this season and beyond. That said, he is limited to quarterbacking the second power play unit because Quinn Hughes has been one of the most productive defensemen on the power play in the past two seasons, recording a league-leading 60 power play assists in 143 games.
#17 With Nashville defenseman Roman Josi out of the lineup due to injury, there is a big opportunity for newly acquired Tyson Barrie. The veteran puck-moving defenseman has three assists in his past five games, while averaging nearly 23 minutes of ice time per game. The past two seasons in Edmonton were the first since 2013-2014 that Barrie had averaged less than 20 minutes of ice time per game, so he is not new to handling big minutes on the blueline.
#18 Although he is splitting starts with Pheonix Copley, Joonas Korpisalo has become more valuable for fantasy managers since his trade to the Los Angeles Kings because he actually wins games. In his first four starts for L.A., Korpisalo has a 3-0-1 record with a .921 save percentage and 1.96 goals against average. It is fair to be skeptical about Korpisalo, given the ups and downs of his career, but this has been the best season of the 28-year-old netminder’s career.
#19 Digging deeper for goaltending help, New Jersey has been giving Akira Schmid more starts and he has posted a .930 save percentage in seven appearances since getting recalled from the AHL. The 22-year-old has a .910 save percentage in 58 AHL games over the past two seasons, so he may be ready for the NHL, and these early returns are very promising. While starter Vitek Vanecek appears to be bouncing back lately, he went through a five-game stretch during which he had a .821 save percentage, so that gave the Devils some incentive to look for other options between the pipes.
#20 With injuries taking Sam Bennett and Anthony Duclair out of the Florida Panthers lineup, look to Eetu Luostarinen, who has earned a bigger role in the second half of the season and has stepped into the second line center role between Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk. Luostarinen has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 26 shots on goal in his past 13 games and played more than 20 minutes in Thursday’s loss to Toronto. It was the third time this season that Luostarinen had crossed that 20-minute threshold.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.
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