Jake Sanderson – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Young players who could have surprising value late in the season like Alexis Lafreniere, Gabe Perreault, Jimmy Snuggerud, Michael Misa, Marco Rossi and so much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 14 Mar 2026 20:37:53 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, young players who could have surprising value late in the season like Alexis Lafreniere, Gabe Perreault, Jimmy Snuggerud, Michael Misa, Marco Rossi and so much more!

#1 Even though the New York Rangers’ season has gone sideways, they are potentially a very interesting team down the stretch, as new players get better opportunities to play big roles. One of the players who is heating up is Alexis Lafreniere, who has 11 points (6 G, 5 A) and 16 shots on goal while averaging more than 19 minutes per game in his past six games. The first overall pick in the 2020 Draft is up to 44 points (19 G, 25 A) in 65 games, giving him a chance to surpass his career high of 57 points, set in 2023-2024. Not only is Lafreniere playing on the top power play unit, but he’s on the top line with Mika Zibanejad and…

#2 Rangers rookie Gabe Perreault, who was a first-round pick in 2023, has spent time in the American Hockey League during his first pro season. He had 17 points (10 G, 7 A) in 20 games with Hartford and Perreault managed a modest eight points in his first 26 games for the Rangers but has started to step into a bigger offensive role, especially once Artemi Panarin was removed from the Rangers lineup. In his past six games, Perreault has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 15 shots on goal while playing first line and first unit power play for the Blueshirts. This is how it’s supposed to go for a team that is out of the race – they should use the rest of the season to give their skilled young players better offensive opportunities, and it appears that Perreault is ready to make the most of his opportunity.

#3 That’s not unlike what is happening with St. Louis Blues rookie winger Jimmy Snuggerud. The 2022 first-round pick has been with the Blues all season, but he is now riding shotgun with Robert Thomas on both the top line and first unit power play. In his past 14 games, Snuggerud has 19 points (8 G, 11 A) and 37 shots on goal and has moved up to fifth in rookie scoring with 34 points (15 G, 19 A) in 53 games. Considering who is available to fill the prime roles in St. Louis, Snuggerud looks like he should stay on the top line for the rest of the season.

#4 The San Jose Sharks have been patient with rookie Michael Misa, the second pick in the 2025 Draft, but as the team continues to push for a playoff spot, the 19-year-old centre is turning into a big contributor. In eight games since the Olympic break, Misa has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 10 shots on goal. Certainly, the scoring would be more sustainable with a higher shot rate, but he is starting to become a factor while skating on a line with William Eklund and Tyler Toffoli and Misa is a highly skilled player who is going to thrive as he gets more ice time with quality linemates.

#5 Coming into season, Matias Maccelli looked like he was getting a good opportunity in Toronto and might have had the chance to play on the top line as a lower-cost replacement for Mitch Marner. While that hasn’t happened as often as might have been hoped, Maccelli has stepped up lately. Since the beginning of February, he has 11 points (7 G, 4 A) with 22 shots on goal in 11 games and he gets second unit power play time while currently skating on a line with Nicholas Robertson and AHL call-up Bo Groulx.

#6 There is a bit of a run of injuries hitting teams late in the season and it could provide opportunities to find value. In Colorado, captain Gabriel Landeskog is out week to week with a lower-body injury after taking a shot in a tender spot from teammate Cale Makar. With Landeskog and Artturi Lehkonen out, it appears that the Avs are going to slide Nazem Kadri to left wing on the top line, which is a prime opportunity for Kadri to get going offensively. He had a little slump at the end of his tenure in Calgary, so Kadri has just two points (1 G, 1 A) despite recording 23 shots on goal in his past seven games.

#7 Toronto Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews took a knee-on-knee hit from Anaheim Ducks defenceman Radko Gudas on Thursday night and Matthews is going to be out for at least a couple of weeks before his status is re-evaluated. The Leafs are 11 points out of a playoff spot, so there is zero incentive to rush Matthews back into the lineup. John Tavares will naturally move up the depth chart, but Max Domi probably needs to slide into the second-line centre role. This shuffling could mean an opening in Toronto’s top six for someone like Nicholas Robertson or Matias Maccelli.

#8 The Ottawa Senators lost defenceman Jake Sanderson on a week-to-week basis after suffering an upper-body injury from a hit by Seattle Kraken defenceman Brandon Montour. Sanderson has been a standout performer on the Senators blueline this season, so it’s going to be a big loss to have him out of the lineup while the Sens are trying to rally for a playoff spot but with Sanderson out, veteran Thomas Chabot will take over the quarterback role on Ottawa’s No. 1 power play. Chabot has six points (1 G, 5 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past six games and played a season-high 28:32 against Montreal on Wednesday.

#9 No team has seen their season crash harder than the Vancouver Canucks, but centre Marco Rossi is getting acclimated to his new squad. He does have six points (2 G, 4 A) in his past five games, but that also comes with just four shots on goal. Even if Rossi isn’t a high-volume shooter, he needs to generate more than that. He gets first unit play time for the Canucks and is skating on a line with Liam Ohgren and Brock Boeser. Given the struggles of Elias Pettersson, the Canucks need a centre to generate offence and Rossi is at least a viable answer to that problem.

#10 Continuing the theme of young players on teams outside the playoff picture, consider Chicago Blackhawks centre Frank Nazar, who has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 12 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. Nazar gets time on PP1 in Chicago while skating between veteran wingers Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen, so he is going to get his chances to continue scoring. Nazar is up to 32 points (10 G, 22 A) in 49 games this season, despite scoring on 9.5 percent of his shots on goal, a relatively low rate for a skilled player in a top six role.

#11 As the Columbus Blue Jackets continue to hunt down a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, centre Adam Fantilli is elevating his production. In his past 10 games, he has 11 points (6 G, 5 A) with 25 shots on goal while averaging 19:53 of ice time per game. He has ascended to the role of first line centre in Columbus and currently has Cole Sillinger and Kirill Marchenko on his wings at even strength. For a little extra fantasy appeal, Fantilli has recorded 20 hits in those 10 games, giving him 105 hits in 65 games this season.

#12 Moving to a veteran winger on a top team, the Buffalo Sabres’ Jason Zucker continues to fly under the radar – available in many leagues – largely because he’s in a secondary role with the Sabres, but he’s crushing it. In his past six games, Zucker has seven points (5 G, 2 A) with 18 shots on goal. He has hit 20 goals for the eighth time in his career, and he has a good thing going on a line with Ryan McLeod and Jack Quinn.

#13 New Jersey Devils winger Connor Brown is getting a fantastic opportunity late in the season, skating on right wing of a line with Jack Hughes at centre and Jesper Bratt at left wing. In his past six games, Brown has six points (1 G, 5 A) and 11 shots on goal and he’s playing nearly 19 minutes per game, so the opportunities are there for Brown to have a bigger impact down the stretch.

#14 As the Boston Bruins continue to battle for a playoff spot, veteran winger Viktor Arvidsson has shown that he can be a valuable contributor. In his past eight games, he has eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 18 shots on goal. He’s skating on a line with Pavel Zacha and Casey Mittelstadt, a veteran trio that might not attract a lot of attention, but they have been getting the job done. Among lines that have played at least 300 five-on-five minutes, the Bruins’ trio ranks fourth with 69.7 GF%, ranking fifth in both goals for and goals against per 60 minutes.

#15 Getting a shot on the Dallas Stars’ top line, Mavrik Bourque is starting to show that he can be a bona fide scorer in the NHL. Bourque has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) and 31 shots on goal in his past 12 games and getting the chance to skate alongside Wyatt Johnston and Jason Robertson is a prime opportunity for Bourque to deliver in a primary role that can benefit both the player and team in the long run. With Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz out of the lineup with injuries, the Stars needed someone to step up and Bourque has done it.

#16 The Penguins seem to have found something with their acquisition of Yegor Chinakhov, who they acquired from Columbus for Danton Heinen and a second-round pick. In his past 17 games, Chinakhov has put up 15 points (8 G, 7 A) and 48 shots on goal, which is very encouraging for him being able to contribute long-term for the Penguins. Right now, he’s on a line with Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust, but the Penguins are still missing an injured Sidney Crosby and suspended Evgeni Malkin.

#17 Back to the theory of young players on non-playoff teams, Matthew Wood is showing some intriguing upside for the Nashville Predators. In his past 11 games, Wood has nine points (6 G, 3 A) and 20 shots on goal. He has moved around the lineup in his first NHL season, including time on the Predators’ top line but, right now, he is working on a line with fellow youngsters Reid Schaefer and Zachary L’Heroux.

#18 Even though he is not the primary scoring option on the blueline for the Buffalo Sabres, a role that is occupied by Rasmus Dahlin, defenceman Bowen Byram continues to provide value for fantasy managers. In his past 10 games, Byram has eight assists and 20 shots on goal and is playing nearly 24 minutes per game, which is not exactly the profile of a second-tier defender.

#19 The New York Rangers were missing Adam Fox for a while – he has since returned to the lineup – but Vladislav Gavrikov moved into a more offensive role, scoring 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 19 shots on goal in a dozen games. With Fox active again, Gavrikov may not hold quite as much value, but he’s playing 23 minutes a game for a Rangers team that is still relatively productive.

#20 Former Calgary Flames defencemen are struggling. Rasmus Andersson has just a couple of points and 11 shots on goal in his past 10 games and he’s not the primary option on the blueline in Vegas the same way that he was in Calgary. Mackenzie Weegar has been struggling, too. He has just one assist and six shots on goal in his past seven games, the past four of which have been with the Utah Mammoth since he was acquired at the trade deadline. Neither of these ex-Flames defenders is the primary blueline option on their new teams, so their fantasy appeal is not nearly as solid as it was during their best days with the Flames.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – OTTAWA SENATORS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 19:52:02 +0000

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 29: Ottawa Senators Center Dylan Cozens (24) skates with the puck during the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup playoffs first round game five between the Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs on April 29, 2025, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

After missing the playoffs for seven straight seasons, the Senators finally returned to the postseason in 2024-2025, recording 97 points (45-30-7). They lost in six games in the first round to the Toronto Maple Leafs, which was disappointing but not altogether unexpected. They were a middling possession team, ranking 14th in Corsi percentage (50.3) and 18th in expected goals percentage (49.6). Ottawa scored 7.68 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranked 16th. They also ranked 16th with 7.09 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play, so this is a very average team based on those numbers. What lifted them above that, however, is goaltending. Linus Ullmark, Anton Forsberg, and Leevi Merilainen combined to give the Sens a .908 save percentage which helped boost a mostly average team into the playoffs.

What’s Changed?

The Senators did not stray too far from their playoff roster, maintaining a lot of continuity heading into this season. They signed veteran checking centre Lars Eller, who had been with the Washington Capitals, winger Arthur Kaliyev, who was last with the New York Rangers, and made a savvy addition to their blueline, trading for Jordan Spence of the Los Angeles Kings. Forsberg signed as a free agent in Los Angeles, but the Senators already had Merilainen ready to step into the backup role, so that should be a seamless transition for them in goal. Free agent forward Adam Gaudette signed with the St. Louis Blues and veteran defenceman Travis Hamonic remains without a contract. Those are not a lot of changes, so the Senators have to be looking to build on last season’s success with the vast majority of the team that brought that success.

What would success look like?

At this point, the playoffs have to be expected for the Senators, though it’s obviously not to be taken for granted. The team had middle-of-the-road numbers except for goaltending, so if they are going to be assured of success, they need to play better in all situations, so that they are above average in all of those aspects. If the Sens could be a Top 10 or Top 12 team at five-on-five, five-on-four, and four-on-five, and have strong goaltending on top of that, then that’s a team that could be expected to do more than just show up in the playoffs. Winning a playoff round would be a successful season for the Sens in 2025-2026.

What could go wrong?

There is a fine line when a team depends on its goaltending, because it’s an unpredictable position and it’s just one guy between the pipes, with no one to pick him up if he’s not performing. So, if the Senators don’t get strong goaltending, then suddenly they could be left scrambling for a playoff spot, but that’s precisely why the team needs to show improvement. They have quality talent with depth to handle potential injuries, so that should mitigate any down sides, but the Senators are not safe enough in the playoff picture to be expected to just cruise past every hurdle, so an injury to a key player, a goaltending slump, some bad bounces at the wrong time could still prevent them from making a second straight playoff appearance.

Top Breakout Candidate

After he was acquired from the San Jose Sharks last season, Fabian Zetterlund arrived in Ottawa and produced shockingly little. He had five points (2 G, 3 A) and 40 shots on goal with the Senators and then had zero points and six shots on goal in six playoff games against the Maple Leafs. The Senators responded by giving Zetterlund a three-year, $12.825 million contract, a vote of confident for the sturdy young winger. More importantly, Zetterlund looks like he could get a shot with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle on the Senators’ top line and if that happens, then the opportunity is there for Zetterlund to have the best offensive output of his career.

FORWARDS

Tim Stützle

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	36	53	89	1.09

The German center compiled what was arguably the best season of his career in 2024-25. Even though his 24 goals and 76 points fell short of the 39 goals and 91-point regular season highs he established during his 2022-23 campaign, Stützle boosted his overall worth by having the best defensive performance of his career. According to Evolving-Hockey's 'total defence' (DEF) metric that combines all of a player's five-on-five and shorthanded contributions into one encompassing metric, Stützle more than quadrupled his previous best (4.1 DEF in 2024-25, 0.8 in 2021-22) for defensive value. Stützle has a substantial impact on the Senators' offence and defence when he is on the ice. If there are any knocks to the center's game, they rest exclusively on his 47.8 percent faceoff success rate and the fact that he often does not play selfishly enough at five-on-five. The good news is that he improved in the faceoff dot for a fourth consecutive season, while acknowledging in his end-of-season media availability that he knows that he needs to shoot more. If Stützle can maintain his defensive gains while winning more draws and electing to shoot more, he could be in line for a massive season. More puck possession and any improvement on a five-on-five shot rate (5.43) that was by far the worst of his career will improve this team's even strength scoring woes. Yet, even without those improvements, 'wins above replacement' (WAR) metric rated only two forwards (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl) as contributing more value than Stützle last season.

Brady Tkachuk

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	40	37	77	0.95

The Senators' captain bolstered his reputation as a shot volume-producing machine. Of the forwards who logged more than 500 minutes of five-on-five ice time during the regular season, no player in the league generated more shots than Tkachuk's 11.82 per 60 minutes. Unfortunately, the rugged forward sustained a lower-body injury during the 4 Nations Face-Off, which limited his availability and effectiveness down the stretch leading into the postseason. Tkachuk's 29 goals and 55 points in 72 games represented his lowest production totals since the Covid-shortened 2020-21 season, in which he recorded 17 goals and 36 points in 56 games. Had he enjoyed better health, he undoubtedly would have surpassed the 30-goal threshold for a fourth consecutive season. Despite lower production totals, his five-on-five shot rate was not far removed from his career norm, while his shooting percentage (5.67) was the worst of his career. If he continues to generate that volume while his shooting percentage normalizes, his production should comfortably return to previous levels. Thanks to that shot volume and his willingness to go to the dirty areas, it feels like in one of these years, if he gets the bounces and his shooting percentage climbs into the low to mid-teens, Brady will score 45 to 50 goals. He continues to play with a physical edge that makes him such a unique and dynamic player. He joined Vincent Trocheck and Tom Wilson as one of only three players last season to record more than 25 goals and 200 hits.

Drake Batherson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	29	37	66	0.80

The Senators' right winger is often paradoxical in the sense that he is a model of consistency while leaving a feeling that he is capable of more. Batherson has played in all of the Senators' 82 regular season games in each of the last three seasons while compiling more than 20 goals and 60 points in each of them, being one of only 11 players who surpassed those two thresholds and recorded more than 100 hits. Batherson scored 26 goals while contributing a career-best 68 points in 2024-25, but the organization was compelled to make a move at the trade deadline to give their talented right winger the play-driving center he needed to not only generate offence but help take the puck and sustain play in the offensive zone. Following the March 7th trade deadline, the 27-year-old led the Senators in scoring with 10 goals and 19 points in the team's final 21 games. There is an expectation that Batherson will return to play on the Senators' second line alongside center Dylan Cozens, but there may be a chance the right winger could replace Claude Giroux on the team's first line. If he does, it would represent an incredible opportunity to shatter his previous career highs.

Dylan Cozens

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	20	38	58	0.71

Acquired by the Senators in a stunning trade deadline deal that moved the popular Josh Norris to Buffalo, Cozens' addition immediately began paying dividends. There was no secret to the success; the change represented a better and healthier fit. Where Josh Norris was a center who was strong on faceoffs and a finisher, Cozens was a big and physical center who could take the puck from the Senators' end and navigate it safely through the neutral zone, creating clean entries and sustained offensive zone pressure. After scoring 31 goals and adding 37 helpers during his career-best 2022-23 campaign, Cozens has failed to replicate that success. Granted, it may have been naive to believe that those numbers were sustainable, given the fact that his shooting percentage was approximately five percent higher than his career average. Through his first 11 games with the Senators, he tallied three goals and nine points while generating 29 shots on goal. When he was on the ice at five-on-five per, the Senators generated 48.06 percent of the shots (CF%), 50.36 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 60 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 47.10 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). In his last 10 games, the center contributed two goals, five assists and 20 shots while the Senators' five-on-five shot and goal metrics cratered. These are incredibly small sample sizes, but if the Senators are serious about transitioning from a prospective playoff team to a true Stanley Cup contender, they will need their second line to not only be productive but also tilt the ice in their team's favour against the opposition's best.

Claude Giroux

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	15	40	55	0.69

Heading into the offseason, there were genuine concerns about whether the 37-year-old veteran remained a fit for the Ottawa Senators. Giroux's shot rate (iCF/60), shot on goal rate (iSF/60), goal rate (G/60), and expected goal rate (xG/60) were all easily the lowest of his career. Collectively, the Senators struggled to produce goals at five-on-five. Only the Nashville Predators finished with fewer five-on-five goals than the Senators. Giroux's offensive decline in 2024-25 could be a microcosm of the Senators' problems. Too often, it felt like the team chased quality at the expense of quantity, and he could afford to be more selfish with the puck. He scored on 10.9 percent of his shots last season, so he can still fire the puck. He also contributed 15 goals and 50 points, but it is reasonable to wonder how much his production would decline if he stopped playing the majority of his minutes with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle. In fairness to Giroux, HockeyViz's data demonstrates he has continued to maintain strong isolated impacts on both offence and defence. Having the league's best faceoff rate, winning 61.5 percent, serves as a nice insulator for Stützle on important draws, but if the offence continues to diminish, it could create an opportunity for Drake Batherson or Fabian Zetterlund on the first line.

Fabian Zetterlund

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	22	25	47	0.57

Like Dylan Cozens, the addition of Fabian Zetterlund in the waning minutes of the trade deadline was an unexpected but welcomed depth move. The Swedish winger tallied 24 goals and 44 points during San Jose's 2023-24 season and was well on his way to surpassing those totals after he was dealt to the Senators. Unfortunately, for the second time in his career, Zetterlund struggled to produce following a deadline trade. During the 2022-23 campaign, he was dealt to the Sharks and failed to record a goal in 22 games. With the Senators, he only tallied two goals and five points in 20 games. His usage began modestly, starting on the fourth line with second power play unit duties. Zetterlund would eventually ascend the lineup, playing a variety of roles, but his lack of production elicited concern. The Senators signed him to a three-year extension carrying a $4.25 million AAV, so they do not share those worries. If his underlying metrics were commensurately unimpressive, it would be troubling. Instead, he ranked second on the team behind only Brady Tkachuk in several individual offensive stats, such as shot rate, expected goals, and scoring chances. Zetterlund was shooting the puck and creating chances at a career-high rate in Ottawa, but it coincided with a team-worst 3.13 shooting percentage at five-on-five. If he continues to generate high-rate stats while enjoying better luck, his production will inevitably match or better his career norms.

Ridly Greig

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	16	29	45	0.56

Ridly Greig's sophomore season represented a marked step forward in many respects. He was the Senators' swiss-army-knife, moving up and down the lineup, filling a hole wherever needed. He averaged 17:05 of ice time per game last season, which marked a two-and-a-half-minute improvement over his previous year's number. This jump reflected the trust that Travis Green and the coaching staff had in Greig's defensive abilities. His most common linemates were Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio, and the trio was tasked nightly with the responsibility of shutting down the opposition's top line. This duty allowed him to shine in a pest role, where his knack for getting underneath the opponents' skin was effective. His line played well given their difficult assignments, generating 46.76 percent of the shots (CF%), 51.25 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 48.77 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 51.41 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). This line will likely start the year together in 2024-25, but the organization has historically referred to Greig as a center. If any of the Senators' centers fall to injury, expect Greig to wind up back in the middle. In the interim, he can be expected to play a significant defensive role on the third line and first penalty kill unit.

Shane Pinto

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	23	26	49	0.61

Having lost the first half of his 2023-24 season to suspension following a league investigation into a gambling account, the 2024-25 campaign represented a blank slate for Pinto. The Senators' third line center responded by establishing new career highs in goals (21) and points (37) while predominantly getting matched against the opposition's most skilled forwards. The 2024-25 campaign is an important one for the center, who will turn 25 years old in November. Pinto is in the last year of a two-year extension that he signed in July of 2024, carrying a $3.75 million AAV. As one of the Senators' best defensive forwards, he has an opportunity to cash in on a long-term extension with a big year. The challenge will be to expand his offensive game. Goal scoring has never been the issue, as he averaged more than 21 goals per 82 games across the last three seasons. Zetterlund's addition at the deadline bumped Pinto from second-unit power play duties, and he finished the season averaging 1:07 of PP/TOI per game. Travis Green preferred to use the Pinto line out after a power play to match up against the opposition's skilled players. Adam Gaudette's departure as a free agent should create the opportunity to get more minutes on the power play, which should help boost his offensive numbers.

David Perron

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	18	24	42	0.57

Hardships characterized Perron's 2024-25 season campaign. His first half was derailed by a back injury and an illness to his unborn daughter that necessitated surgery during pregnancy and after she was born. Perron took a leave of absence from the team and did not play regularly until the end of January. He ultimately played 43 games for the Senators, scoring nine goals and 16 points and being the team's nominee for the Masterton Trophy. The 37-year-old is one of the slowest skaters in the league. Of all the forwards in the NHL who played more than 500 minutes, only four skaters recorded fewer 18-plus miles per hour bursts than Perron. Despite that lack of speed, he remains an effective player. He finished third on the Senators amongst regulars in individual expected goals per 60 behind Brady Tkachuk and Fabian Zetterlund. It speaks to his skill set that he can overcome his size and speed. Perron's competitiveness, ability to protect the puck, and willingness to go to the net and dig the puck out along the wall create an opportunity for his team to extend shifts in the offensive zone. This diversification of skills allows him to play in a variety of roles. Although he may be slated to start the season on the fourth line, he can seamlessly ascend the lineup and play in a more skilled role.

DEFENCE

Jake Sanderson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	14	48	62	0.77

It was almost a tale of two seasons for the smooth-skating Sanderson. He was supposed to start alongside his regular playing partner, Artem Zub, but a concussion and fractured foot injury forced the defenceman to miss 26 games in the first half of the season. Zub's absence and the organization's lack of faith in their depth options put the team in the uncomfortable position of relying on veteran Travis Hamonic. When this pairing was on the ice in their almost 400 five-on-five minutes together, the Senators generated 49.00 percent of the shots (CF%), 50.67 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 24.05 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 46.74 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). When he played with Zub, the numbers climbed to 51.28 CF%, 52.38 SF%, 47.38 GF%, and 55.59 xGF%. Separating Sanderson from one of the worst statistical defencemen in the league last season will do wonders for the player and the Senators. Of all the defencemen in the league last season who played more than 500 five-on-five minutes, only four had a lower on-ice shooting percentage than Sanderson. The worst? Travis Hamonic. Despite the circumstances, he finished with a career high of 11 goals and 57 points in 80 games, becoming the sixth defenceman in franchise history to record more than 50 points in a season. Sanderson is already a great defensive player, but Ottawa's improved defensive depth should allow him the opportunity he needs to continue to strengthen his offensive numbers and allow him to contend for a Norris Trophy.

Thomas Chabot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	8	34	42	0.60

The 2024-25 season was an important one for the longest-tenured member of the Ottawa Senators. After undergoing corrective surgery to resolve a wrist problem that had afflicted him for years, Chabot responded with one of the most complete seasons of his career. He contributed nine goals and 45 points while posting significantly improved defensive metrics. Less was more for the Senators and Chabot as the defenceman's 23:01 of ice time per game represented his lowest average ice time since he averaged 17:31 per game as a rookie in 2017-18. Having a regular defensive partner in Nick Jensen assuredly helped, too. For years, Chabot's performance suffered because of injuries, overuse and a lack of continuity. In 2024-25, he put together one of his best seasons as a pro. His 'wins above replacement' (WAR) metric rated Chabot as creating the fifth-highest amount of value amongst NHL defencemen. For the first half of the season, he had one of the highest WARs in the entire league, before Nick Jensen's hip injury impacted his effectiveness down the stretch. From October through December, this pairing was one of the best in the league, with the Senators generating 54.52 percent of the shots (CF%), 54.98 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 59.62 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 54.49 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). If the pairing can approach that level in 2025-26, Chabot should be in line for another strong season.

Nick Jensen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	3	16	19	0.26

Acquired last summer with a draft selection in a trade for Jakob Chychrun, the deal was panned in some circles because it represented a sell-low value considering the opportunity cost used to acquire Chychrun the year prior. Rather than continue the previous regime's pattern of chasing names, Steve Staios and his staff prioritized good fits, and Jensen was one last season. His bottom line only shows three goals and 21 points in 71 games played, but his on-ice contributions and impact on partner Thomas Chabot were unmistakable. Jensen's ability to skate, retrieve pucks and move the puck competently served as a nice complement to Chabot. But, once Jensen suffered a chronic hip injury, it sank the pairing's numbers. In their final 43 games, the Senators only generated 48.40 percent of the shots (CF%), 44.74 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 46.67 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 44.33 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). Jensen turns 35 years old this September, so it is reasonable to expect some level of decline in his game, but it will be worth monitoring how he recovers from this injury. The organization remains optimistic that he will be ready to start the season, but they need more than him to be available. The Senators need Jensen to resemble the player he was for the first three months of the 2024-25 season if they are to continue their ascent in the Eastern Conference.

Jordan Spence

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	4	27	31	0.40

Heading into the offseason, the Senators' most significant need was to address their quality of depth on right defence. Thanks to the injuries that Artem Zub and Nick Jensen suffered last season, it became clear that the Senators could ill afford to give minutes and significant responsibilities to players who were simply out of their element. The addition of Spence serves as an insulator on that right side, and he is a good one. In 79 games for the Kings last season, the 24-year-old recorded four goals and 28 points while averaging 16:47 of ice time per game. His underlying metrics were excellent. When Spence was on the ice at five-on-five, the Kings generated 56.80 percent of the shots (CF%), 56.98 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 65.43 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 56.88 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). He did play sheltered minutes on one of the better defensive teams in the league, so that is something to be mindful of. He will likely be partnered with Tyler Kleven on the third pairing to start the season, but as an undersized defenceman, he could draw out for Nik Matinpalo depending on the matchup. At the very least, his exceptional puck-moving ability brings a dynamic to the right side that was previously lacking, and his presence affords the Senators the patience to develop the well-regarded prospect, Carter Yakemchuk, at the AHL level.

Goal

Linus Ullmark

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
63	32	22	5	5	.910	2.75

Boston's loss was most certainly Ottawa's gain last year, as they got a chance to trot out one half of the league's most formidable tandem en route to the franchise's first postseason appearance since 2017. Linus Ullmark was crucial in Ottawa's step forward, providing the kind of consistency he's been counted on for years now; he rarely puts up games full of highlight-worthy saves, but his technique is hard to shake and it's rare he'll put up more than a handful of truly bad performances over the course of the entire year. And while prospect Mads Søgaard didn't quite live up to the hype once again during his limited NHL appearances, fellow prospect Leevi Merilainen was more than up to the task -- and he'll enter next season as the surprising backup darling to Ullmark as Ottawa looks to prove they can string together consecutive postseason appearances.

The biggest question mark for Ottawa will be just how many games Merilainen can take on over the course of the regular season, since Ullmark plays his best hockey when he's able to manage his workload and split starts more regularly. If Merilainen struggles to step into a true tandem role, Ullmark's health becomes a concern. For a team that spent more than a few years desperately trying to chase the reliable presence Craig Anderson brought to the crease, though, Ullmark is a welcome face - and if Merilainen is able to continue progressing as a tandem backup, Ottawa could become a real threat.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Holloway paying dividends for streaking in St. Louis – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 29 Mar 2025 14:00:11 +0000

St. Louis Blues center Dylan Holloway (81) (Photo by Keith Gillett/IconSportswire)

Has a team ever benefited so greatly and immediately from a player they snagged away from an adversary via an offer sheet as St. Louis has with Dylan Holloway? The two-year contract worth roughly $4.58 million was too rich for the Oilers when the Blues made a move against the RFA this summer, and to be fair to Edmonton, Holloway had just nine goals and 18 points in 89 regular-season appearances as well as five goals and seven points in 26 playoff games at that point. For a team in a cap crunch, Edmonton didn’t feel comfortable offering that kind of salary to a player projected for its bottom six.

Whatever the rationale was, though, Holloway has thoroughly demonstrated that Edmonton could not have been more wrong in its decision. Holloway scored tow goals to lead St. Louis to a 3-2 victory over Nashville on Thursday, bringing him up to 26 goals and 62 points in 74 outings this campaign. What once looked like a rich contract is now unquestionably one of the league’s biggest value signings.

He's provided the Blues, who tied for 24th in goals per game (2.85) last year with some much needed offensive depth, and he’s stepped up down the stretch, providing 10 goals and 22 points across 18 appearances since the 4 Nations break. Though, he does have plenty of company in that regard.

St. Louis as a whole has excelled since the tournament. That win against Nashville was the squad’s eighth straight, and the Blues are 14-2-2 since the time off. That’s the best record in the NHL over that span, and they’ve led the league in goals per game with an eye-popping 4.00. In addition to Holloway, Robert Thomas (six goals, 25 points), Jordan Kyrou (eight, 18), Jake Neighbours (six, 17), Brayden Schenn (six, 16) and defenseman Cam Fowler (two, 14) have been major factors.

The goaltending has been there too. Since leading Canada to victory, Jordan Binnington has posted a 9-2-0 record, 2.19 GAA and .912 save percentage across 11 outings, while Joel Hofer is 5-0-2 with a 1.98 GAA and a .910 save percentage across his last nine appearances.

The result is St. Louis has gone for a team that was set to miss the playoffs to one that’s sitting in a wild-card spot. To an extent, there’s shades of 2018-19 when the Blues got off to a disastrous start only to get hot, make the playoffs and then battle all the way to a championship. The Blues even made a midseason coaching change this year, replacing Drew Bannister (9-12-1) with Jim Montgomery (30-16-6). Obviously, just because the Blues had a magical run in 2019 doesn’t mean history will repeat itself this year, but with the way St. Louis is playing, it will be a dangerous team to face in the postseason.

Boston Bruins (Tue vs WAS, Thu @ MTL, Sat vs CAR, Sun @ BUF)

While the Blues have surged, Boston has faded, making already long odds to secure a playoff berth now look all-but impossible. Boston had a 3-12-3 from Feb. 5-March 26 and suffered its seventh straight loss (0-6-1) against the Ducks on Wednesday. Will the freefall continue next week? Boston will start by hosting Washington before playing in Montreal on Thursday, returning home to face the Hurricanes on Saturday and then playing in Buffalo on Sunday.

Boston has managed just 2.22 goals per game over the aforementioned 18-game stretch, and that’s despite David Pastrnak still doing really well with eight goals and 19 points in that span. Pastrnak has 35 goals and 85 points in 73 appearances, giving him a shot of reaching the 40-goal and 100-point marks for the third straight campaign. He’s one of the few Bruins who has largely lived up to expectations in 2024-25.

Morgan Geekie has also been something of a silver lining during Boston’s dreadful stretch. He’s provided four goals and six points across his past five games. That brings him up to 26 goals in 68 appearances this season, shattering his previous career high of 17 from 2023-24. One word of warning, though: His shooting percentage of 19.7 is a substantial jump compared to his career average of 11.4 going into the campaign, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Geekie saw a decline in goal production next season.

On another team, Geekie’s strong showing this season would have been a pleasant surprise that might have elevated the squad, but Boston is so devoid of scoring options that it barely moves the needle. Aside from Geekie and Pastrnak, no other player has recorded even five goals for Boston over the past 18 games, and to put that into context, five goals in 18 outings would amount to only a 23-goal pace over 82 games. Looking at the Bruins’ season as a whole, Pastrnak and Geekie will probably be the only players to finish with at least 22 goals. Brad Marchand will almost certainly finish the campaign third in goals for Boston with 21 despite being traded. Charlie Coyle, who was also dealt, currently ranks fourth in goals with 15 during his time with the Bruins.

Boston did acquire Casey Mittelstadt from Colorado, but so far that hasn’t paid dividends. Mittelstadt has two goals and four points in nine appearances with the Bruins despite averaging a healthy 17:28 of ice time and seeing minutes alongside Pastrnak. Mittelstadt’s 5v5 CF% rel and 5v5 FF% rel are minus-8.4 and minus-5.6, which suggests that, for as bad as Boston has been recently, the Bruins have performed even worse when Mittelstadt is on the ice.

This is a season that can’t end soon enough for the Bruins, but maybe with the season already essentially lost, Boston will feel the pressure lift and settle into a spoiler role. The Bruins do have a chance to make things harder for Montreal, and Boston is 2-0-0 against the Canadiens this season, so if you’re looking for a game where the Bruins might pleasantly surprise, that seems like a good candidate.

Calgary Flames (Mon @ COL, Tue @ UTA, Thu vs ANA, Sat vs VGK)

For a time, it looked like Calgary might squeak into the playoffs despite its lack of offense, but the rise of the Blues has made that unlikely. Still, the Flames have an outside chance should they have a strong week. Calgary will start the week on the road in Colorado on Monday and Utah on Tuesday. The Flames will then return home to face the Ducks on Thursday and the Golden Knights on Saturday.

For much of the season, Calgary was competitive thanks in large part to rookie goaltender Dustin Wolf. Unfortunately, the 23-year-old has hit a rough patch, posting a 2-3-1 record, 3.65 GAA and .869 save percentage across his past six appearances. That’s reduced him to a 24-15-5 record, 2.67 GAA and .909 save percentage in 44 outings overall. It’s still been a good campaign for him, but I think his recent decline is likely enough to take him out of serious competition for the Calder Trophy, barring an unbelievable finish. Montreal’s Lane Hutson has a shot to reach 60 points as a defenseman, and San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini has been averaging near a point per game, so in my mind the competition is just too strong for Wolf to still grab the trophy.

Of course, it’d be unfair to suggest Wolf’s struggles down the stretch cost Calgary a potential playoff berth. Calgary ranks 31st in goals per game with 2.61, which is what the real problem is. If there is a silver lining to be found among the Flames forwards, though, it’s been Jonathan Huberdeau. The first two years of his tenure with the Flames looked like a disaster, but he’s been solid this campaign with 27 goals and 58 points through 71 appearances. He’s also red hot with five goals and 12 points over his past eight outings. He’s still not warranting his $10.5 million cap hit, but at least he’s not fading away.

Nazem Kadri is also doing his part, even at the age of 34. He’s on a five-game goal-scoring streak in which he’s found the back of the net seven times. That’s rocketed him to 30 markers, which is his most since 2017-18 with Toronto, and just two goals away from his career high. I wouldn’t count on that goal streak carrying into next week, but he’s certainly one of the Flames’ best forward options.

Matthew Coronato is also giving the Flames some hope that there are better days ahead on offense. The 22-year-old has four goals and six points across his past five appearances, bringing him up to 20 goals and 39 points through 66 games this season. He’s getting tons of playing time -- 19:36 per game, including 3:21 with the man advantage, over his past five outings -- which puts him in a solid position to finish the campaign on a high note. Just keep in mind that young players can be particularly streaking, and Coronato has shown that he’s no exception. He had just two goals and three points in 12 appearances from Feb. 8-March 17, just to cite the latest example of his offense drying up.

Colorado Avalanche (Mon vs CGY, Wed @ CHI, Thu @ CBJ, Sat @ STL)

Colorado is cruising toward the end of the campaign with a 12-1-1 record over its past 14 games. The Avalanche will attempt to maintain that level of extreme success next week, starting with a home game against the Flames. They’ll then hit the road to play in Chicago on Wednesday, Columbus on Thursday and St. Louis on Saturday.

The Avalanche have a 45-25-3 record, which gives them the third spot in the Central Division. Even with their recent success, Colorado is still five points shy of the second-place Dallas Stars despite Colorado having played in one extra game. The Avalanche also have a six-point lead on Minnesota, which is pretty healthy this late in the season. In other words, Colorado is unlikely to move up or down from its current third-place seed, and I do wonder if a sense that the stakes are low will cause Colorado to ease up on the gas a little over the final games off the season, potentially ending the hot streak.

Then again, it’s hard to envision Nathan MacKinnon or Cale Makar giving suboptimal performances for any meaningful length of time. They’re just so reliable. Plus, MacKinnon has some added personal motivation as he looks to win the Art Ross Trophy -- MacKinnon leads the pack with 108 points in 73 appearances, but Nikita Kucherov isn’t far behind with 105 points in 68 outings -- and bolster his bid for the Hart Trophy. Meanwhile, Makar would set a new career high of 91 points if he collects at least seven more in Colorado’s final nine games -- a very doable task for the elite blueliner.

MacKinnon and Makar have unsurprisingly led the charge during the Avalanche’s past 14 games, providing 21 points and 20 points, respectively, but Martin Necas hasn’t been that far behind with six goals and 16 points in 14 appearances. Necas has worked out superbly alongside MacKinnon, which has led to him recording 26 goals and 80 points across 73 outings between Carolina and Colorado this campaign. Given that I don’t think MacKinnon is likely to slow, Necas should have a strong end to the campaign too.

I’m more uncertain about the sustainability of Brock Nelson. He has three goals and six points across his past four appearances, but can be fairly streaky, and he doesn’t have the luxury of regularly playing with MacKinnon at even strength, so if Colorado slows a bit during its final games, Nelson might be part of that.

Regardless of what the Avalanche do collectively, Charlie Coyle probably won’t factor in much on offense. He has just two assists in 10 games since joining Colorado from Boston, but more importantly, he’s averaging just 13:32 of ice time. Unlike Boston, the Avalanche are deep up front, especially when it comes to centers, so Coyle seems stuck on the third line, barring an injury. There’s no reason to put much stock in Coyle, given that role.

Columbus Blue Jackets (Tue vs NAS, Thu vs COL, Sat @ TOR, Sun @ OTT)

Columbus battled to its second straight shootout win Friday, improving to 33-29-9 on the campaign. Through March 28, the Blue Jackets hold the second wild-card seed, but their position couldn’t be more precarious: Although Columbus has the edge in games left (11), Montreal and the Rangers are tied with the Blue Jackets in terms of total points (75). Every point is critical for Columbus, and in that context, the Blue Jackets have a huge week ahead of them. They’ll host Nashville on Tuesday and Colorado on Thursday before hitting the road to visit Toronto and Ottawa on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

The fact that Columbus even has a shot this deep into the season is a story that isn’t getting enough coverage nationally. This is a team that was projected to be closer to Chicago (21-43-9) and San Jose (20-42-9) than a playoff berth.

Getting Boone Jenner, Sean Monahan and Cole Sillinger back from injuries has given the Blue Jackets a huge boost that might push them over the edge. Since making his Feb. 22 season debut, Jenner has supplied four goals and 14 points in 15 appearances, and he’s only been getting better, supplying four goals and five points over his past three outings. Meanwhile, Monahan returned Monday after missing 28 games due to a wrist injury and went right back to work with three helpers over his past two outings, and Sillinger (shoulder) played Friday for the first time this month, contributing an assist in his return.

Monahan is centering the top line between Dmitri Voronkov and Kirill Marchenko, while Boone Jenner is on the second unit with Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson. Sillinger helps round out the top nine by playing alongside Justin Danforth and Mathieu Olivier. Now that Columbus’ forward corps is relatively healthy, James van Riemsdyk was a healthy scratch Friday, and he’ll probably find himself moving in and out of the lineup the rest of the way. Olivier is also going to have a tougher time getting minutes, he averaged just 11:40 of ice time Friday despite recording a goal and an assist, which is a significant drop from his average of 14:58 from Feb. 22-March 24.

A healthy group also makes things better for defenseman Zach Werenski on offense. He’s having a career year with 20 goals and 70 points in 70 outings, but he went through a six-game scoring drought from March 13-24. Werenski collected a power-play assist on one of Jenner’s goals to end that slump Friday, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the 27-year-old defenseman end the campaign on a high note.

Dallas Stars ( Mon @ SEA, Thu vs NAS, Sat vs PIT, Sun @ MIN)

Dallas earned a 5-2 victory over Calgary on Thursday to improve to 4-1-1 over its past six games. The Stars seem secure as the Central Division’s second seed given their 47-21-4 record, and there’s still an outside shot of catching up to the 49-19-4 Jets to win the division. Dallas will attempt to pull that off with another strong week, starting in Seattle on Monday. The Stars will then host the Predators on Thursday and the Penguins on Saturday before playing in Minnesota on Sunday.

Defenseman Thomas Harley has found another gear lately, scoring five goals and 16 points across his past 14 appearances, rocketing him up to 15 goals and 47 points in 70 outings this campaign. The 23-year-old’s recent success is in part due to the power play -- he has eight points with the man advantage over his last 14 games, compared to just six power-play points across his first 56 outings in 2024-25. Miro Heiskanen (knee) hasn’t played since Jan. 28, which has resulted in Harley averaging 3:24 of power-play ice time since the injury compared to his season average of 2:11, which helps explain why Harley has see that spike in power-play success. Heiskanen is expected to miss the remainder of the regular season as well as the first round of the playoffs, so the current arrangement will persist for a while longer.

While Heiskanen won’t be back any time soon, Tyler Seguin might rejoin the team before the end of the regular season. Keep him in mind for playoff pools. He has nine goals and 20 points in 19 appearances before getting hurt, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him reunite with Matt Duchene and Mason Marchment when he’s healthy. Mikael Granlund will make that a difficult decision for the Avalanche, though. Granlund is their current linemate and has done well recently with four goals and eight points across his past 10 outings.

One alternative would be to keep Dallas’ current second line of Duchene, Marchment and Granlund intact, and instead have Seguin play alongside Jamie Benn. That might help the 34-year-old Benn, who has been good, but not great this campaign with 16 goals and 45 points in 72 outings this season. Benn has also been productive recently, supplying five assists in his past seven games despite averaging just 13:14 of ice time due to the Stars’ offensive depth.

Whatever happens, it’s a good problem for Dallas to have. The Stars already have a really strong top nine, and adding a healthy Seguin to that mix would make it truly special.

Montreal Canadiens (Tue vs FLA, Thu vs BOS, Sat vs PHI, Sun @ NAS)

The battle for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference might come down to the wire. Columbus won while Montreal suffered a loss Friday, leaving the Canadiens tied with Columbus in terms of points (75) for the second wild-card spot, but Montreal is at a disadvantage with one fewer game left on its schedule. The Rangers are also tied with 75 points while the Islanders are at 74. Montreal has been faltering lately, and the Canadiens need to stop the bleeding to stay in the mix. They’ll host the Panthers on Tuesday, the Bruins on Thursday and the Flyers on Saturday. Montreal will then conclude the week with a road match in Nashville on Sunday.

Sam Montembeault deserves some of the blame for Montreal’s recent struggles. He’s 0-2-2 across his past four outings while posting a 4.04 GAA and an .864 save percentage in four appearances. His overall numbers also don’t look great – he has a 25-23-6 record, 2.93 GAA and .898 save percentage through 54 appearances. However, there is a caveat to consider: His goals saved above expected is plus-14.5, per Moneypuck, which is actually the 14th best in the league. That’s because Montreal’s xGA/60 ranks 26th at 3.30. In other words, the Canadiens haven’t made things easy for him, and when it comes to this summer, adding players who could help shore up the defense should be a priority.

In meantime, Montreal’s best hope of making the playoffs might be through brute forcing with overwhelming offense. It helps that Patrik Laine has been clicking lately, supplying four goals and seven points over his past eight appearances, however, he’s been held off the scoresheet in two of his past three games, so it’s possible that run is petering out. Laine has traditionally had extreme hot and cold spells, so be weary of the other shoe dropping.

If he does fade, maybe that will be counterbalanced by Cole Caufield getting hot again. Caufield has been a touch quiet lately with a goal and two points across his past five appearances, but he’s having a great season overall with 34 goals and 63 points, and I don’t expect him to be held back for long.

Brendan Gallagher is also worthy of note. He’s enjoying one of his best stretches of the campaign with two goals and seven points in his last six outings. Just keep in mind that he’s still averaging a modest 13:55 of ice time, and he’s not going to be one of Montreal’s main scoring threats overall.

Ottawa Senators (Tue vs BUF, Thu vs TBL, Sat vs FLA, Sun vs CBJ)

Ottawa has merely treaded water recently, winning two of its past five games, but thanks to a 7-0-1 run from March 1-15, the Senators hold the first wild-card spot. Ottawa will look to maintain that lead this week and will have the benefit of remaining at home for the entire duration. The Senators will host Buffalo on Tuesday, Tampa Bay on Thursday, Florida on Saturday and Columbus on Sunday.

The Senators are 20-10-2 at home versus 18-18-3 on the road, so fantasy managers do tend to get a boost when deploying their players in Ottawa. That said, not all players have a dramatic home/road split. One who does is Tim Stutzle. He’s collected 13 goals and 43 points across 32 outings in Ottawa but is a less effective eight goals and 28 points in 39 appearances on the road. To put that in perspective, Stutzle’s home pace amounts to 33 goals and 110 points per 82 games, so that’s the kind of player you’d be deploying if you use him this week.

Drake Batherson is another player who tends to step up in front of the home crowd. He has 14 goals and 34 points in 32 outings at the Canadian Tire Centre this campaign versus six goals and 24 points in 39 games on the road. Batherson has also been hot lately, supplying four goals and nine points over his past eight appearances.

One more player who has a dramatic split is defenseman Jake Sanderson, who has supplied four goals and 30 points in 32 home games compared to three goals and 18 points on the road. However, not every player sees significant benefit from playing at home. Brady Tkachuk does have a higher point per game at home (26 points in 30 outings), but it’s a more muted jump compared to the road (29 points in 39 appearances) than we’ve seen with some other players. The same can be said for Claude Giroux (22 points in 32 games at home; 24 in 39 on the road). Meanwhile, Linus Ullmark actually seems to do a bit better away from Ottawa (2.68 GAA, .911 save percentage) than at home (2.91 GAA, .906 save percentage), so keep that in mind.

Washington Capitals (Tue @ BOS, Wed @ CAR, Fri vs CHI, Sun @ NYI)

The Capitals will spend most of the week on the road, playing in Boston on Tuesday, Carolina on Wednesday and the Islanders on Sunday. That leaves the Capitals with just one home game -- a match against Chicago on Friday. Washington was a borderline team to include because of that skew toward road games, but I couldn’t resist highlighting them given Alex Ovechkin’s chase of Wayne Gretzky’s record.

Ovechkin has 36 goals and 60 points in 56 appearances this campaign, putting him at 889 career goals, five shy of matching Gretzky and six away from beating him. Washington has 10 games left in the schedule for Ovechkin to accomplish that feat. In other words, it’s likely going to come down to the wire, but given Ovechkin’s recent pace of 14 goals in his past 22 games, it seems doable.

One x-factor is weather Ovechkin will get rested before the end of the season. To do so when he’s closing in on the record seems insane, but if you take a step back from that, he’s a 39-year-old on a team with Cup aspirations. Under normal circumstances, giving Ovechkin a game or more off at the end of the season would be a no brainer, and not doing so arguably could hurt Washington a bit in the playoffs. To some extent, it’s the same dilemma Toronto faced last year with Auston Matthews. Resting Matthews before Toronto’s first-round series against Boston might have been the smart play, but Matthews had a shot at a 70-goal season, so Toronto decided to keep him in the lineup and even log 21:03 of ice time against Tampa Bay in the season finale despite that game not even mattering from a playoff seeding perspective.

Still, Ovechkin didn’t play in the 4 Nations Face-Off, and he missed 16 games from Nov. 21-Dec. 23 due to a fractured fibula, so unlike Matthews, who logged 81 regular-season games last season, Ovechkin has already had time off, so perhaps he doesn’t need the break as much as you might assume. Either way, it seems unlikely that Washington will rest him unless Ovechkin has already secured the record -- and the plus side in all this is it gives the Capitals something to play for even at this stage when they’ve already basically secured the top spot in the Conference with their 47-16-9 record.

Ovechkin’s pursuit should also help Aliaksei Protas finish his breakout campaign on a strong note. Protas has six goals and 13 points across his past 10 outings, bringing him up to 29 goals and 64 points in 72 outings. It’s going to be challenging for Washington to maintain its current level once Ovechkin eventually retires, but the 24-year-old Protas does give the Capitals hope for the future as well as the present.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Canucks send Miller to Rangers, Sharks ship Granlund to Dallas, Sanderson, Perfetti, Byfield, Knies, and Wright are among the young players gaining appeal and much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 08 Feb 2025 18:51:21 +0000

NEW YORK, NY - FEBRUARY 07: New York Rangers left wing J.T. Miller (8) in action during the third period of the National Hockey League game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Rangers on February 7, 2025 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, the Canucks send J.T. Miller to the Rangers, the Sharks ship Mikael Granlund to Dallas, Jake Sanderson, Cole Perfetti, Quinton Byfield, Matthew Knies, and Shane Wright are among the young players gaining appeal and much more!

#1 Ending a saga that had been going on in Vancouver all season, the Canucks finally traded J.T. Miller to the New York Rangers. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Miller has scored 323 points (112 G, 211 A) in 285 games, which ranks 13th in the NHL. He also has 692 hits in that time, so Miller offers a lot for fantasy managers. He can be a handful and eventually wore out his welcome in Vancouver, but he makes the Rangers better immediately.

#2 One of the players reaping the rewards from Miller’s arrival in New York is Mika Zibanejad, who has been enduring a difficult season, but has shifted to right wing on a line with Miller and Artemi Panarin. Zibanejad suddenly has six points (1 G, 5 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past three games, after managing just two points (1 G, 1 A) in his previous eight games.

#3 Going to Vancouver in the Miller deal, centre Filip Chytil should get a better opportunity with the Canucks. He was stuck behind Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck down the middle of the ice for the Rangers. Chytil had 20 points (11 G, 9 A) in 41 games for the Rangers, but has two points (1 G, 1 A) in three games with the Canucks, averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game with his new team. Chytil is centering Drew O’Connor, who was recently acquired from Pittsburgh, and Brock Boeser on the Canucks’ second line as well as getting first-unit power play time, so he is getting a chance to be a more significant contributor than he was in New York.

#4 In another deal, the San Jose Sharks dealt forward Mikael Granlund and defenceman Cody Ceci to Dallas. Ceci is a veteran stay-at-home defenceman, with little appeal for fantasy managers, but Granlund has produced 106 points (27 G, 79 A) in 123 games for the Sharks across the past two seasons. While Granlund is not likely to play as much in Dallas as he did in San Jose, he is skating on a line with Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene, effectively replacing an injured Tyler Seguin in the Stars’ lineup.

#5 After what had been an uninspiring start to the season, Ottawa Senators defenceman Jake Sanderson has produced 10 points (3 G, 7 A) with 18 shots on goal during a six-game point streak. Four of those 10 points have come via the power play and Sanderson now has 20 power play points this season, which ranks third behind only Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes.

#6 Emerging from a month-long slump that saw him contribute two assists in 14 games, Winnipeg Jets winger Cole Perfetti has tallied eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 13 shots on goal in his past six games. Perfetti’s ice time is still worth keeping an eye on, but when he’s producing, he tends to have a good situation with Nikolaj Ehlers and Vladislav Namestnikov on Winnipeg’s second line.

#7 After breaking through for 55 points (20 G, 35 A) last season, Kings forward Quinton Byfield has not been scoring at the same pace this season, despite playing nearly two minutes more per game. He has had some recent success, with seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past six games. Byfield is skating at centre on a line with Kevin Fiala and Alex Laferriere, a line with decent offensive potential and Fiala has started to break through lately, too.

#8 Toronto Maple Leafs left winger Matthew Knies is busting out in his second NHL season. His ice time is up from 13:41 per game last season to 18:24 per game this season and he has 17 points (10 G, 7 A) in his past 13 games. His 21 goals this season is tied for second on the team with John Tavares, behind only William Nylander (33). Knies also plays a physical game, which sets him apart from Toronto’s other top scorers, and he has 115 hits in 50 games, which makes him even more valuable to fantasy managers.

#9 Although the season is not going the way that the Seattle Kraken would have hoped, they can take some small victories in the process and it appears that they are starting to realize the potential of centre Shane Wright, the fourth pick in the 2022 Draft. Wright has seven points (3 G, 4 A) in his past seven games and is skating on a line with Jared McCann and Andre Burakovsky, a pair of skilled veteran wingers. It’s not like Wright has suddenly become a top-tier forward, but he is a 21-year-old who is handling third-line minutes and second-unit power play time, so there is going to be continued growth.

#10 After being sidelined for nearly two months, Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz returned to action Thursday and stopped 26 of 27 shots in a win at Seattle. Stolarz has a .929 save percentage, which is tops among goalies with at least 10 appearances, and has 15.39 Goals Saved Above Expected. While Stolarz has never been able to handle a starter’s workload for a full season, topping out at 28 games for Anaheim in 2021-2022, his quality play ensures that he will have a significant role for the Maple Leafs down the stretch, sharing time in the crease with Joseph Woll.

#11 His first couple of seasons in Calgary were pretty rough, at least relative to his best seasons in Florida, but Flames left winger Jonathan Huberdeau has been more dangerous this season. He has eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past nine games while playing more than 21 minutes per game, a far cry from the 16:52 per game he played a few years ago in his first season with the Flames. Huberdeau, who has largely been known as a playmaker throughout his career, is up to 21 goals, with only 19 assists, on the season.

#12 After having his contract terminated by the St. Louis Blues, left winger Brandon Saad signed on with the Vegas Golden Knights, looking for a chance to win and, presumably, an opportunity to contribute more than he was in St. Louis this season. In his last 20 games for the Blues, Saad recorded six points (3 G, 3 A) and all three of his goals in that time happened in one game (vs. Ottawa). In Vegas, Saad is not getting power play time, which is not altogether unusual for him, but he is skating on a line with Brett Howden and Mark Stone at even strength and has one goal in his first three games for the Golden Knights.

#13 New York Islanders right winger Mathew Barzal is out of the lineup once again, this time due to a lower-body injury. Barzal is averaging a career-high 20:21 of ice time per game this season but has a modest 20 points (6 G, 14 A) in 30 games. With Barzal out, the door is open for Anthony Duclair to move up the depth chart, but Duclair has been struggling, with just two points (1 G, 1 A) and 19 shots on goal in his past 16 games. A more appealing option for the Islanders could be Simon Holmstrom, who has six points (3 G, 3 A) in his past five games.

#14 The Nashville Predators have called up top prospect Joakim Kemell from Milwaukee of the AHL, where the 17th pick in the 2022 Draft had recorded 25 points (9 G, 16 A) in 38 games. He is slated to make his NHL debut Friday and could have a plum assignment to start his NHL career, skating on a line with Filip Forsberg and Steven Stamkos. That’s not taking a skilled young player and burying him on the fourth line. It’s taking that player and giving him a chance to succeed.

#15 San Jose is giving some prospects a chance to play, too. Collin Graf, who was signed out of Quinnipiac in the spring, had 30 points (8 G, 22 A) in 33 games for the San Jose Barracuda and has averaged more than 17 minutes of ice time, scoring one goal in two games since he was recalled to the Sharks. Graf is skating with Luke Kunin and Barclay Goodrow at even strength but does get second-unit power play time. The Sharks have also promoted veteran pro Andrew Poturalski, a 31-year-old centre who was leading the AHL with 45 points (18 G, 27 A) in 41 games at the time of his promotion. He has two assists in eight career NHL games, but the Sharks are giving him a chance to skate between Fabian Zetterlund and Will Smith, so there is a chance for him to provide some offense.

#16 Florida Panthers goaltender Spencer Knight has been steadily getting better and while he is clearly in a backup role, he is a much more valuable backup now. Since the calendar flipped to 2025, Knight has a .937 save percentage and an astounding 11.12 Goals Saved Above Expected in eight games. It has not been the easiest path for the 2019 first-round pick, who sat out last season, but he is showing that his talent is still there and at just 23 years old, he should have a promising future in this league.

#17 It’s not time to panic over Mikko Rantanen’s move to Carolina, even if the premier winger has just two points (1 G, 1 A) in his first six games for the Hurricanes. Rantanen also has 21 shots on goal and 40 shot attempts in those six games, so the chances are there, but this player who has scored on 16.1 percent of his shots in his career is scoring on just 4.8 percent of them since the trade. That will regress soon enough, and this slow start with his new team could make Rantanen a little bit of a buy-low option.

#18 While he has tallied 10 power play goals in 26 games for the Montreal Canadiens, Patrik Laine has hit a scoring slump. The sharp-shooting winger has no points and eight shots on goal in his past six games and that highlights what happens when things go wrong for Laine. He stops generating shots and while he tends to be dependent on others to create chances, he can surely put himself in better positions to get shots because 1.3 shots per game is obviously not nearly enough for a player with his shooting talent.

#19 Another player enduring an offensive slump is Kings winger Adrian Kempe, who has zero points in his past six games but the part that is encouraging about Kempe is that he has 21 shots on goal in that stretch. He remains on the Kings’ top line, alongside Anze Kopitar and Alex Turcotte, as well as holding a spot on the Kings’ first line, so it is easier to see Kempe resuming his scoring ways. Kopitar is enduring his own slump, with one assist and 11 shots on goal in his past seven games, so they should be ready to get back on track at any moment.

#20 Red Wings goaltender Cam Talbot lost his first game after the Wings made their coaching change over the holiday break in December, but in 10 games since then, Talbot has nine wins and a .916 save percentage. Since Detroit is back into the playoff mix, that makes Talbot much more valuable for fantasy managers because the wins have become more accessible.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: CULLEN – Laine making the most of his power play time, Schmaltz, Hertl and Nelson are hot, Jones thriving since returning to lineup, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 24 Jan 2025 23:24:57 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 07: Patrik Laine (92) of the Montreal Canadiens skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Washington Capitals and the Montreal Canadiens on Dec 07 2024, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC(Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Patrik Laine has made the most of his power play time in Montreal, Nick Schmaltz, Tomas Hertl and Brock Nelson are hot, Seth Jones is thriving since returning to the Chicago lineup, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 It is not like the hockey world forgot what Patrik Laine could do when the puck hit his stick, but he has been playing sporadically in recent seasons, so the evidence wasn’t quite so evident. After joining the Montreal Canadiens, however, Laine has shown that he is still a lethal shooter. In 20 games with the Habs, Laine has 18 points (12 G, 6 A) with 54 shots on goal. He is scoring on 22.2 percent of his shots, which is a higher rate than he has finished in any previous season, but he is also quite specifically a power play threat, with 10 of his 12 goals coming with the man advantage. Laine has 10.35 goals per 60 minutes of power play time, which ranks first among players that have played at least 30 minutes on the power play this season. Victor Olofsson (6.48), Pavel Dorofeyev (5.76), Michael Bunting (5.22), and Brayden Point (4.82) round out the top five in power play goal-scoring efficiency.

#2 Veteran Utah Hockey Club right winger Nick Schmaltz has established his credentials as a quality point producing forward but had been off to a relatively slow start prior to embarking on what is now a seven-game point streak, during which he has nine points (3 G, 6 A). Schmaltz has consistently played alongside Clayton Keller, but the duo has recently added second-year centre Logan Cooley to the top line and Cooley has been cooking, putting up 30 points (12 G. 18 A) in his past 28 games.

#3 Barrett Hayton, who has played quite a bit with Schmaltz and Keller in recent seasons, has moved to a line with Matias Maccelli and Josh Doan and continues to have success, tallying seven points (3 G, 4 A) in his past four games. Hayton’s ice time is down this season to 15:24 per game after playing more than 17 minutes per game in the previous two seasons, but he has also improved his work in the face-off circle, winning 54.2 percent of his draws. Given Cooley’s offensive upside, it probably makes more sense for Hayton to slot in as the No. 2 centre in Utah.

#4 Vegas Golden Knights centre Tomas Hertl had been relatively inconsistent early in the season, but he might be turning the corner. He is riding a seven-game point streak, putting up 11 points (6 G, 5 A) with 25 shots on goal in those seven games. That elevated shot rate is an important factor because Hertl was averaging 2.24 shots per game through the first 41 games of the season. Taking that up to 3.57 shots per game is a strong indicator for a player sustaining is production.

#5 New York Islanders centre Brock Nelson is finding his name in trade rumours as the Isles are sitting in last place in the Metropolitan Division. He is helping to keep his value high, scoring seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 18 shots on goal while playing more than 20 minutes per game in his past six games. A 6-foot-4 centre who has scored more than 30 goals in three straight seasons, Nelson is obviously appealing for a team looking to boost its offense.

#6 Chicago Blackhawks defenceman Seth Jones is starting to heat up. He had missed five weeks with a foot injury, but has delivered 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in 14 games since getting back into the lineup. Jones has recorded 10 of his 20 points on the power play, and with 7.87 points per 60 minutes on the power play, he ranks third among defencemen, behind only Zach Werenski (8.11) and Neal Pionk (7.91).

#7 Seattle Kraken centre Chandler Stephenson had been on a good run before getting injured Thursday night. In his past 11 games, including Thursday, Stephenson has contributed 10 points (5 G, 5 A) but there is a bona fide concern with his low shot rate. He has 46 shots on goal in 48 games, which is a shockingly low amount for a player who logs more than 19 minutes of ice time per game. With Yanni Gourde also injured, Stephenson’s absence could create more playing time for Shane Wright, who is making progress. In his first 23 games of the season, Wright had seven points (4 G, 11 A), but in the next 23 games, he has contributed 15 points (4 G, 11 A).

#8 Looking for a buy-low winger? Consider Kevin Fiala of the Los Angeles Kings. In 11 games since the holiday break, Fiala has a modest five points (2 G, 3 A) but he also has 40 shots on goal. That shot rate is encouraging, but there is also the matter of Fiala’s low on-ice shooting percentage this season. During five-on-five play, the Kings are scoring on just 5.8 percent of their shots when Fiala is on the ice, which is his lowest since his rookie season in 2016-2017.

#9 Calgary Flames winger Blake Coleman can fly under the radar a bit but when he is contributing offensively, that makes his fantasy contribution quite strong. In his past 17 games, Coleman has 15 points (5 G, 10 A) but he also has 36 hits and that combination makes him quite appealing for fantasy managers. Coleman is unlikely to match last season’s career highs of 30 goals and 54 points, but already has 92 hits in 46 games, so if the point production continues, Coleman’s all-around contribution is solid.

#10 On a similar level, Boston Bruins forward Morgan Geekie has picked up his production a bit, with eight points (5 G, 3 A) in his past 10 games, but he also has 25 hits in those 10 games. Be a little wary, though, since Geekie only has 16 shots on goal in those 10 games, his goal-scoring has been dependent on a high shooting percentage (31.3 percent in the past 10 games).

#11 Carolina Hurricanes rookie right winger Jackson Blake has found his way to the top line, skating with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. Blake has played 15:27 per game over the past four, chipping in three points (1 G, 2 A) with nine shots on goal. It is probably too soon to jump on Blake in most fantasy leagues, but if he remains on that top line there is obvious scoring upside for a player who ranks third among rookies with 11 goals despite very limited ice time (12:02 ATOI). (Editors note – The Rantanen trade followed the publication of this article – the coach may want to spread the scoring around, but it is more likely Rantanen takes that spot on the top line)

#12 Toronto Maple Leafs centre John Tavares is out of the lineup due to a lower-body injury and for all of the criticism that Tavares takes, he remains a high-end point producer, with 42 points (20 G, 22 A) in 44 games before getting hurt. The challenge for the Maple Leafs is to get contributions down the middle of the ice behind Auston Matthews because, with Tavares out, the second line centre is Pontus Holmberg and the third line centre is rookie Fraser Minten. Holmberg has zero goals and one assist in his past 11 games while Minten has zero points in his past eight NHL games after starting with four points in his first five games.

#13 With the New York Islanders’ season teetering on the brink, they got bad news that standout defenceman Noah Dobson is considered week-to-week with a lower-body injury. Dobson’s production has fallen off the pace he set last season, when he had a career-high 70 points (10 G, 60 A) in 79 games, as he has 24 points (6 G, 18 A) in 46 games this season, but the Islanders don’t have great options to replace him on the power play. Ryan Pulock has handled the role before and is noted for his heavy shot from the point, but has one power play point this season.

#14 New Jersey Devils goaltender Jacob Markstrom has suffered a sprained MCL, which will keep him out of the lineup for 4-6 weeks. Markstrom has been exactly what the Devils needed between the pipes, with a .912 save percentage and 10.0 goals saved above expectations in 36 games. With Markstrom out, Jake Allen will need to handle the starter’s role. Allen has a .901 save percentage and 4.04 goals saved above expected in 15 games this season, so he is a capable starting goaltender for the next month plus.

#15 The Boston Bruins are in a tough battle for a playoff spot, for the first time in a while, but that is made even more challenging when goaltender Jeremy Swayman and No. 1 defenceman Charlie McAvoy are sidelined with injuries. Defenceman Hampus Lindholm was already injured, so the current version of the Bruins is without its top two defencemen and top goaltender, and that is going to make it even more difficult. Swayman’s injury does not seem serious, so Joonas Korpisalo may only have short term value, but McAvoy has landed on injured reserve, which will keep him out for at least a week. This defensive weakening does make the Bruins more vulnerable, potentially worth targeting as opposition while the Bruins are missing Lindholm and McAvoy.

#16 Bruins defenceman Mason Lohrei has been making the most of his opportunity to quarterback the power play. He has six points (1 G, 5 A) in the past seven games and is up to 10 power play points. With 6.85 points per 60 minutes on the power play, Lohrei is tied for 15th (with Chicago’s Alex Vlasic) among NHL defencemen.

#17 Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin is considered week to week with a lower-body injury, and that leaves a large hole for the Avalanche. In 21 games, Nichushkin has 17 points (11 G, 6 A). His absence keeps Ross Colton in Colorado’s top six and while Colton has been held scoreless in his past four games, he is worth keeping tabs on as a player with potential upside because he thrived earlier in the season when given a big opportunity due to injuries.

#18 Ottawa Senators centre Josh Norris is out with an upper-body injury. Given his history with shoulder woes, Norris’ health is an area of concern, yet the thing is that he can still produce when healthy. In 47 games this season, Norris has produced 17 goals and 27 points. The Sens do get David Perron back in the lineup, so that should theoretically help alleviate Norris’ absence, but Perron has failed to record a point in 10 games this season, so expectations should be kept in check. Senators defenceman Jake Sanderson is out of the lineup with a lower-body injury, which elevates Thomas Chabot to the first power play unit.

#19 Norris’ absence from the Senators’ lineup should also open the door for Shane Pinto to step up. While Pinto has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 18 shots on goal in the past eight games, he is also averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game in that time, so it would be a prime opportunity for Pinto to lift his offensive production because with 16 points (8 G, 8 A) in 40 games, he has underachieved offensively.

#20 Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Darren Raddysh has elevated his game recently, producing six points (2 G, 4 A) with 13 shots on goal in the past five games, averaging 21:50 time on ice per game. With J.J. Moser and Erik Cernak injured, the Lightning certainly need Raddysh to take on more responsibility. In his first 18 games this season, Raddysh averaged 15:30 time on ice per game and in 20 games since then, has averaged 20:04 per game.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – OTTAWA SENATORS – Team Preview

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 16:00:11 +0000

_{OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 21: Ottawa Senators Left Wing Brady Tkachuk (7) before a face-off during second period National Hockey League action between the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators on October 21, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)}

Although the Ottawa Senators entered last season with expectations that they could challenge for a playoff spot, that dream never really materialized as they finished with 78 points (37-41-4). They struggled to a 16-24-1 record while centre Shane Pinto was suspended for the first half of the season and could not make up that deficit to get back into the playoff picture. The Senators ranked 19th with a 49.8% Corsi and 22nd with an expected goals percentage of 48.8%. Their power play was tied for 25th with 6.43 goals per 60 minutes and their penalty killing ranked 30th with 9.51 goals allowed per 60 minutes. They were a little below average at full strength and worse on special teams, so it shouldn’t come as any surprise that the Senators didn’t really challenge for a playoff spot.

WHAT’S CHANGED? The new ownership and front office in Ottawa started making changes following the disappointing campaign. Travis Green was hired to be the head coach, replacing Jacques Martin, who had stepped in to replace D.J. Smith during the season. The Sens made a move to acquire goaltender Linus Ullmark from Boston, with centre Mark Kastelic and goaltender Joonas Korpisalo part of the package going to the Bruins. Defenceman Jakob Chychrun was traded to Washington, with right-shot defender Nick Jensen coming to Ottawa in return. Right winger Mathieu Joseph was traded to St. Louis. Left winger Parker Kelly and defenceman Erik Brannstrom both signed in Colorado as free agents. The Senators signed free agent wingers David Perron from Detroit, Michael Amadio from Vegas, and Noah Gregor from Toronto.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Maybe a year later, the Senators will have a fighting chance for a playoff berth. Ullmark should be a significant upgrade between the pipes and a full season from Pinto increases the chances that Ottawa will be playing meaningful hockey in March and April. Since the Sens have gone seven seasons without a trip to the playoffs, actually getting in would definitely be recognized as success. It would require some young players to step up their games, but it’s also not some pie-in-the-sky idea. If Ottawa’s complementary players contribute and the stars produce at a high level, then the goaltending upgrade could be what pushes the Senators over the top.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? With the addition of Ullmark, expectations should go up in Ottawa. While last year’s acquisition of Joonas Korpisalo was fraught from the start, the Senators have legitimate reason to be optimistic about their goaltending this season. This is where it could go wrong. If the Senators still can’t turn in a season with at least 90 points, something that will keep them in the playoff hunt, the disappointment will be substantial. The relatively new owner doesn’t have to make up for everything from the previous regime, but that baggage is hanging around and it will until the Sens finally turn the corner.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Jake Sanderson and Ridly Greig are viable candidates as well, but Shane Pinto was rather impressive in his half a season of work after returning from suspension last season. The 23-year-old centre contributed 27 points in 41 games, but he did so with a shooting percentage of 8.2% and an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.5%. By playing a full season and getting some positive regression out of those percentages, Pinto should obliterate his previous career high of 35 points, set in 2022-23. He will compete for playing time down the middle with Josh Norris, but Norris has had so much trouble staying healthy that Pinto should be able to secure a regular spot in a scoring role.

Forwards

Brady Tkachuk

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	44	37	81	1.01

From the moment Brady Tkachuk entered the league, it always felt like it was a matter of time before one of the league's highest-volume shot generators would develop into a prodigious goal-scoring talent. Only David Pastrnak registered a higher individual shot rate last season. That production allowed Tkachuk to register a new career high in shots (357) and establish a new high with 37 goals. It marked the third time the power forward surpassed the 30-goal threshold in his career. Tkachuk had the league's fifth-highest expected goal rate (1.83 ixG/60) in 2023-24. That metric is a product of Brady's willingness to create havoc in front of opposing goaltenders. His all-situations shooting percentage has sat slightly above the 10 percent mark in each of his last three seasons. That mark is respectable, but it does lend itself to the idea that if Tkachuk maintains his shot generation and enjoys any spike in luck that pushes his shooting percentage north near 12 to 14 percent, this is a player who has the potential to tally 40 to 50 goals. Considering how Tkachuk also finished the season with the third-highest total number of hits (294), that blend of physicality and offensive potential makes him one of the most unique players in the league.

Tim Stützle

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	28	60	88	1.09

Tim Stützle's 2023-24 campaign was a sobering reminder that not every young player's development and production growth will be linear. After scoring a sparkling 39 goals and 90 points in 2022-23, Stützle experienced a marked drop in production last season. The German registered 18 goals and 70 points in 75 games. It was probably fair to expect some regression in his shooting percentage after it leapt to 17.1 percent in 2022-23, but it was plainly evident that Stützle was a less dangerous player shooting the puck. His shooting percentage in all situations was 9.4 percent, which represented a career low. He also experienced some depreciation in his defensive game. At least some of his setbacks can be explained by the team’s struggles under former head coach D.J. Smith. Fortunately, there is a physical explanation for this. At the end of the season, Stützle acknowledged that a wrist injury he suffered in the fourth game of the season bothered him throughout the campaign. If the offseason affords his wrist the necessary time to mend, a completely healthy Timmy will go a long way to bolstering the Senators' forward core.

Claude Giroux

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	21	42	63	0.77

In case anyone needed a gauge to know how fast time flies, Claude Giroux is entering the final year of the three-year, $19.5 million contract he signed in 2022. Although the team's performance has not lived up to the fostered expectations when the popular veteran returned home, Giroux has fulfilled his end of the deal by playing in every one of the Senators' games over the last two seasons. He will turn 37 in January, but he has maintained strong levels of production into what is supposed to be the declining stage of his career. His production rates did experience a dip from his 2022-23 campaign, where he tallied 35 goals and 79 points. Giroux's goal rate (0.76 G/60) represented his lowest mark since the 2018-19 season. His point rate (2.33 Pts/60) represented his lowest rate since the 2019-20 campaign. Despite the drop in production, he still contributed 21 goals and 64 points while providing the leadership and competitiveness the organization desperately needs to support its young core. Although he no longer plays centre, Giroux's ability to take draws in the faceoff circle is essential for a Senators team featuring several young pivots. Of the players who took over 200 faceoffs last season, Giroux's 58.0 percent success rate was the ninth highest in the league. Although Tim Stützle improved his faceoff success rate from 41.6 to 46.7 percent over the last two years, it remains a weakness in his game. With Josh Norris coming off another shoulder surgery and Ridly Greig posting a lowly 43.9 percent success rate, the Senators can shelter their development by relying on Giroux.

Drake Batherson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	26	47	73	0.89

Despite eclipsing the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career during the 2022-23 season, it still felt like Drake Batherson had more to give. After spending the previous two years scoring on more than 15 percent of his shots on goal, Batherson's 2022-23 shooting percentage (8.8) represented the lowest mark of his career. He overcame that drop in efficiency by shooting the puck more than he ever had. In 2023-24, his shooting efficiency returned. He posted career highs in goals (28) and points (66) while registering 53 fewer shots on net. The hope is that there is still more room for offensive growth provided he can strike a balance between last season's efficiency and his shot volume levels from 2022-23. Along with Brady Tkachuk and Shane Pinto, Batherson was one of only three Senators regulars to average more than one expected goal per 60 minutes of ice time. He led the Senators in primary assists per 60 (1.17 A1/60) while finishing second in even strength goals (21) and power play goals (7). He tied Tkachuk for the club-leading 22 power play points.

David Perron

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	16	26	42	0.56

A prominent theme of the Senators' offseason was management prioritizing veteran leadership to offset the inexperience of the team's young core. Perhaps more importantly, management added veterans who could also contribute value on the ice. At 36 years old, David Perron is a depreciating talent entering the final years of his career. And, at that, there is a risk the Senators overpaid by awarding him with a two-year deal averaging $4 million AAV. Perron's goals and points per 60 rate have declined for two straight years, but his 2023-24 marks (0.86 G/60, 2.37 Pts/60) are not far removed from his 2022-23 season (1.04 G/60, 2.42 Pts/60) in which he scored 24 goals and 56 points. Never a great skater, there is concern that if Perron has lost a step, it could exacerbate his weaknesses. NHL Edge data lists Perron in the bottom 50th percentile in top skating speed, speed bursts over 20 mph, and shot speed. To the player's credit, even if he has lost a step, Perron has created value by going to the dirty areas of the ice to create offence. Ottawa has historically relied on skill and rush chances to create offence in recent years, so they will welcome Perron's net front tenacity and his ability to win battles along the boards to sustain offensive zone time.

Josh Norris

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
56	23	17	40	0.71

One year removed from a shoulder injury limited Josh Norris to eight games during the 2022-23 season, this is not where anyone expected the centre's recovery to be. Norris reinjured that same left shoulder in a game against the Predators on February 27th, necessitating surgery and forcing him to miss the remainder of the season. There are few modern sports examples of players needing three surgical procedures on one shoulder in such a short span, but if there is a glimmer of hope, Vladimir Tarasenko offers it. Norris' former teammate endured three procedures of his own, and he eventually returned to playing at a decent level. Norris turned 25 this offseason, so there is hope his youth may assist in his recovery. With six years remaining on an eight-year contract extension carrying an AAV of $7.95 million, there is nothing else fans can do but hope he eventually resembles his pre-injury form when he scored 35 goals and 55 points in 2012-22. Although he has missed 106 games across the last two seasons, there have been moments of optimism when he has played. It was fair to expect some regression in his shooting percentage (17.7) that led to his big 35-goal 2021-22 campaign, but Norris' shot continued to be dangerous. In his last 58 games, he scored on almost 14 percent of his shots. The question facing the Senators is, when Norris does return, where should he play? Norris has proven to be a quality finisher, but his playmaking and puck-driving ability have not been strong. By playing the wing, he will have fewer defensive responsibilities and can be sheltered from taking faceoffs. His reintegration into the Senators' lineup will be one of the more intriguing storylines to follow in 2024-25.

Shane Pinto

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	25	31	56	0.68

It is safe to assume that the start of Shane Pinto's 2024-25 season will be less distracting than its predecessor. After salary cap complications and stalled contract negotiations between the Senators and Pinto's camp marred last year's offseason, the NHL levied a 41-game suspension - one of the largest suspensions in league history for his involvement in a gambling scandal. Once Pinto returned, he performed at a high level. In 41 games last season, Pinto registered nine goals and 27 points while averaging 18:07 of ice time. The centre's point rate grew from 1.60 points per 60 to 2.18 in 2023-24. A large driver in that growth was an improvement in his primary assist rate, which grew from 0.27 to 0.81. An important consideration to monitor will be Pinto's usage. Josh Norris' recovery from shoulder surgery could cause wrinkles throughout the top three lines. Provided everyone is healthy, a reasonable bet would be for Pinto to start the season anchoring the third line. In saying that, he was Brady Tkachuk's most common centre at five-on-five last season despite missing half the team's games. If Norris' recovery progresses slowly or he cannot return to his pre-injury form, Pinto will have an easy path to top six minutes. Should he continue to build upon last season's numbers when his individual expected goal rate (1.34 ixG/60) was the second highest on the team behind Brady Tkachuk, his play will warrant that opportunity on merit. And, in signing a two-year, $3.75 million AAV contract this summer, he will arrive in camp without any distraction.

Michael Amadio

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	13	14	27	0.35

Arguably the organization's most low-key addition this offseason was Michael Amadio. The versatile two-way forward returns to Ottawa, where he played five nondescript games with the Senators during the 2020-21 season. Since then, Amadio has solidified himself as an NHL regular after three seasons in Vegas. In 193 games in the desert, he compiled 41 goals and 72 points including 14 goals and 27 points in 73 games last season. He has demonstrated he can be an efficient scorer in this league. In parts of seven NHL seasons, Amadio has scored on 12.2 percent of his shots. According to Evolving-Hockey's 'wins above replacement' metric, Amadio compiled the fourth-highest value (1.5 WAR) in Vegas last season. He did so while spending most of his time playing on a line with William Karlsson. Amadio will likely not have the luxury of starting the year playing with a 30-goal scorer in Ottawa. There is a risk that his numbers could suffer away from Karlsson, but Amadio will be expected to bring positional flexibility, goal-scoring, and defensive aptitude to the bottom of the lineup. A glaring weakness of the Senators' roster building in recent years has been their willingness to bring in supporting players who offer offence or defence, but not both. The belief is that Amadio will be a more well-rounded fit than his predecessors.

Ridly Greig

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	15	15	30	0.39

If there was a positive to come out of Shane Pinto's half-season suspension last season, it was that it created the opportunity Ridly Greig needed to establish himself and develop at the NHL level. Greig began his campaign recording seven points in his first eight games, and it was only a short time before he garnered attention for his production, chippiness, and two-way play. Greig finished 15th in rookie scoring with 13 goals and 26 points, despite only contributing six points in his last 33 games. Greig was a Swiss Army knife, allowing his coaches to play him up and down the lineup on the wing or at centre. Greig played on nine different line combinations that played more than 30 minutes together. His most common linemates were Dominik Kubalik and Mathieu Joseph – but that trio played just 87 minutes together to poor results. The Senators generated only 44 percent of the shots (CF%) and expected goals (xGF%) while they were on the ice. In a smaller sample size, Greig thrived with Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux generating 69 percent of the shots (CF%) and 72 percent of the expected goals. A promising start and more continuity and better linemates should help his progression.

DEFENCE

Jake Sanderson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	12	39	51	0.63

Jake Sanderson did the unthinkable. For the first time since the 2017-18 season, someone other than Thomas Chabot led the Senators in average ice time per game (23:13). Fresh after signing an eight-year extension worth an AAV of $8.05 million, Sanderson experienced a breakout, recording 10 goals and 38 points - becoming the ninth defenceman in franchise history to record more than 10 goals and 35 points in a season. Despite those point totals, there is considerable room for growth. The loss of Jakob Chychrun should free up more power play ice time for Sanderson. He averaged only 0.75 points per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time. Among the seven defenders on the Senators who logged more than 10 games, only Travis Hamonic had a lower point rate than Sanderson. He could be due for a big season if he can improve that point rate. On the defensive side of the puck, the Senators do not have to worry about Sanderson. His pairing with Artem Zub gave the Senators a reliable defensive tandem to match against the opposition's most dangerous lines. Together, they logged 826 five-on-five minutes. When they were on the ice together, the Senators generated the majority of the goals (52.5 GF%), shots on goal (54.7 SF%), shots (53.7CF%), and expected goals (54.9 xGF%). The Sanderson-Zub pairing had the 10th-highest xGF% of all the defensive pairings in the league that logged more than 500 minutes. A considerable achievement given where the team finished in the standings.

Thomas Chabot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	10	32	42	0.60

Since being drafted in the first round of the 2015 NHL Draft, Thomas Chabot has played parts of eight seasons with the Senators. Never once has the defenceman reached the postseason. These years were spent logging big minutes on bad teams with even worse defensive partners, fuelling a belief that Chabot had developed poor defensive habits. The 2022-23 campaign was arguably the worst defensive season of his career, so there was a lot of pressure on Chabot to improve. Under Jacques Martin, his game improved considerably. The rate of shots (CA/60) and shots on goal (SA/60) that the Senators allowed while Chabot was on the ice were the lowest of his career. As much as the defence improved, Chabot had one of his least impactful offensive seasons, recording nine goals and 30 points in 51 games while mercifully being removed from the first power play unit and replaced by Jake Sanderson. His seven power play points matched a career-low and Chabot failed to be a viable threat from the blue line. One explanation for his offensive play is injury. He reportedly underwent surgery on his wrist to alleviate an issue that has been plaguing him for several seasons. Staying healthy will be a key to both his and the team’s success. The 27-year-old has missed 75 games across the last four years, including 31 games in 2023-24. Having a stable and reliable defensive partner should help too. Nick Jensen, an undervalued defensive defenceman, is expected to replace Jakob Chychrun as Chabot's partner. The Senators allowed 4.38 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five when Chychrun and Chabot were on the ice together. Replacing Chychrun with a natural right-shot defenceman who has historically put up solid defensive numbers since the 2016-17 season should help.

Nick Jensen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	2	14	16	0.21

Acquired with a third-round pick in a slightly polarizing trade that sent the 26-year-old Jakob Chychrun to the Washington Capitals, Nick Jensen joins the Senators to balance the handedness of the top two defensive pairings. The defensive defenceman has always been an analytics darling, but last season was his least impactful from an underlying numbers perspective. The Capitals only generated 44 percent of the shots (CF%) and expected goals (xGF%) when Jensen was on the ice. 2023-24 also represented Jensen's least impactful season regarding his surface numbers. In 78 games for the Capitals last season, Jensen had a lonely goal and 13 assists. The optimistic view is that Jensen is just one season removed from a productive season. Jensen's poor 2023-24 campaign could be partly explained by the Capitals' decline or the fact that Jensen never had a consistent playing partner following the Dmitry Orlov trade in 2023. He played more than 100 minutes with five different partners to poor results. The 33-year-old right-shot defenceman projects to begin his Senators career playing alongside Thomas Chabot. Chabot represents the most talented partner that Jensen will have had in his career, so it's a relatively soft landing spot for Jensen to prove his 2023-24 campaign was not part of a larger age-related decline.

Artem Zub

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	3	16	19	0.26

Since entering the league as an unheralded European veteran at the start of the 2020-21 season, Artem Zub has solidified his reputation as the Senators' best defensive defenceman. Together with Jake Sanderson, the Senators have assembled one of their best defensive shutdown pairings since the early 2000's. To put things into perspective, the Senators allowed an average 29.51 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time. When Sanderson and Zub were on the ice together, often playing against the opposition's best forwards, the Senators allowed 26.73 shots. Zub's offence was the most understated part of his 2023-24 season. He led Senators defencemen in five-on-five points per 60 (1.10). It more than doubled his 2022-23 rate (0.44). The only blemish on Zub's record is something out of his control. He has missed a half-season worth of games across the last two seasons. Without a ton of quality options available behind Jensen and Zub, any prolonged absence from the lineup will put the team in an unenviable position of having to give Jacob Bernard-Docker or Travis Hamonic top four minutes.

GOAL

Linus Ullmark

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
55	28	22	5	3	0.909	2.68

The Ottawa Senators and the Boston Bruins have never been considered one of the NHL’s premier rivalries. But come the start of the 2024 campaign, that may change - all thanks to one of the most inexplicable trades made by an NHL GM since the Toronto Maple Leafs gifted Boston a Vezina winner nearly twenty years ago. This time, it’s the Canadian franchise on the receiving end of a Vezina-caliber gift; thanks to a cap crunch in Boston, the Senators will start their upcoming season with elite-level starter Linus Ullmark between the pipes, likely for as many games as they can possibly squeeze out of him. Ullmark has been one of the NHL’s most reliable performers since arriving in Boston in 2021. He’s served as the slightly more veteran half of a formidable tandem with Jeremy Swayman, splitting the net almost perfectly down the middle in terms of workload and reaping the benefits of carefully constructed rest periods. Now, he’ll head to a floundering team stuck in the quagmire of a rebuild, dangerously close to becoming another Buffalo. The Senators keep getting close to taking the next step forward, but just can’t seem to put it all together.

That should make for an interesting situation with regards to how Ullmark will fare. He spent the first half of his NHL career skating out as a starter for none other than the Buffalo Sabres, and his numbers were admirable but incapable of carrying his team out of the basement. Now, he’s older and has considerably more experience taking reps behind a more structured defensive system - but he’s also started to develop a minor injury history and hasn’t had to deal with the kind of inconsistency that Ottawa’s defense can display a little too often for comfort. Getting back into the habit of having to rely on desperation saves over structure and system might take some adjustment for Ullmark, and it’s entirely possible that his numbers will suffer as a result. Hopefully, though, he’s the missing piece the Senators have needed - and he’ll be able to help give the team the necessary push back into the hunt for a Wild Card berth.

DADOUN: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (December 25th to 31st) – Senators make a coaching change – Ducks, Sabres, Avalanche, Stars, Oilers, Devils, Islander and Leafs look good in short week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 23 Dec 2023 17:24:26 +0000

Ottawa Senators Defenceman Jake Sanderson (85). (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

We’ve seen examples of coaching changes this year led to immediate improvement in Edmonton, Minnesota and St. Louis, but firing your bench boss isn’t a magic bullet that guarantees a turnaround, as the Ottawa Senators are learning.

Since replacing coach D.J. Smith with Jacques Martin, the Senators have lost two contests to Arizona and Colorado, dropping their season record to 11-17-0. There’s still time to dig out of that hole, but it seems unlikely. To put it into context, if we assume it’ll take 92 points to make the playoffs this year, which was the case in 2022-23 and is a reasonable expectation in general, then Ottawa would need to go 35-19-0 the rest of the way to make the playoffs, which amounts to a .648 winning percentage. Not impossible, but highly improbable given what we’ve seen of this team.

The defense just isn’t there. Ottawa ranks 28th in xGA/60 at 3.51, and goaltenders Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg haven’t been nearly good enough to make up for the sloppy play in front of them. The Senators do have a solid forward core, but it’s not enough to make up for that defense either.

The silver lining is Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Joshua Norris, Drake Batherson and Jake Sanderson are all still young and locked to multi-year contracts. Jakob Chychrun is fairly young too at 25 and signed through 2024-25. All isn’t lost if the Senators miss the playoffs this year, though after falling short of a postseason berth in every campaign since 2017, I’m sure there is some eagerness in Ottawa to move past the rebuilding phase.

Anaheim Ducks – WED VS VGK, FRI VS ARI, SUN VS EDM

There are no games scheduled on Monday or Tuesday due to the Christmas break, and consequently, no team plays more than three games this week. Anaheim is among those that have a full three-game set, hosting the Golden Knights on Wednesday, the Coyotes on Friday and the Oilers on Sunday. Vegas will be a tough match, but the Coyotes are middling while Edmonton’s been inconsistent, especially when it comes to the Oilers’ goaltending.

I highlighted Anaheim last week too and mentioned at that time that Trevor Zegras (lower body) was getting close to returning. He didn’t end up returning in the time between columns, but Zegras did participate in Thursday’s optional skate, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him make his return next week. When he does return, he could go on a tear. Zegras has just two points in 12 contests this season, but he was playing hurt before being shut down due to the injury, so when he comes back, he’ll hopefully be 100 percent.

In the meantime, Adam Henrique has been red hot, scoring six goals and seven points over his last six contests. He’s averaging 16:34 of ice time, including 2:24 with the man advantage, and might be leaned on even more next week, depending on the status of Leo Carlsson, who sustained a lower-body injury during Thursday’s game.

Rookie Pavel Mintyukov has also done well recently, scoring a goal and four points over his last five outings, bringing him up to two goals and 17 points in 32 contests this season. Taken with the No. 10 overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, Mintyukov is a fantastic prospect who could realistically maintain his rookie point-per-game pace, to finish the campaign in the 40-45 point range.

Buffalo Sabres – WED VS BOS, SAT VS CBJ, SUN @ OTT (BTB)

The Sabres will start the week at home with contests against Boston on Wednesday and Columbus on Saturday before heading to Ottawa for a game Sunday. The Bruins are one of the league’s best teams, but the Blue Jackets and Senators sit at the bottom of the Eastern Conference

This might be a good week to pick up Kyle Okposo. At the age of 35, he’s not quite as effective as he used to be, but Okposo still has something left, providing eight goals and 14 points in 34 outings. He’s been great recently too, netting three markers over his last two contests.

Rookie Zach Benson is hot too with two goals and six points over his last five outings. He’s averaging a healthy 15:25 of ice time this year, and that’s gone up even further to 17:43 over his past five games, so rather than just being a nice short-term pickup, the 19-year-old might be someone you want to hold indefinitely.

Colorado Avalanche – WED @ ARI, FRI @STL, SUN @ DAL

The Avalanche will begin the week with road games in Arizona on Wednesday and St. Louis on Friday before hosting the Sharks on Sunday. None of those adversaries are particularly impressive with Arizona holding the best record among them at 17-13-2.

When a team is 20-11-2 like the Avalanche are, the issues it’s facing can become background noise, but make no mistake, there are points of concern for Colorado, chief among them is how much this team relies on its star players.

Nathan MacKinnon is having an unreal campaign with 18 goals and 53 points in 33 contests. He’s on a 17-game scoring streak and had another superb contest Thursday, scoring four goals and five points to earn a 6-4 victory over Ottawa. Mikko Rantanen (17 goals, 42 points), Cale Makar (eight goals, 39 points) and Valeri Nichushkin (15 goals, 32 points) have done their part to back up MacKinnon this campaign, but outside of those four, the rest of the team isn’t particularly impressive.

No other player has even 20 points while starting goaltender Alexandar Georgiev has left plenty to be desired with his 3.01 GAA and .898 save percentage through 26 starts. You could argue at this point that even Edmonton is less reliant on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl than Colorado has become on MacKinnon and Rantanen. It’s really become that severe of a house of cards for the Avalanche.

Perhaps that’s changing a little, though. Jonathan Drouin was one of the players the Avalanche added over the summer to try to bolster the team’s offensive depth. He had a rough start to the campaign, scoring three goals and eight points through 26 contests but has rebounded recently with a goal and six points over his last five appearances. Drouin is currently serving on the top power-play unit, which has been the source of four of those six points. If he’s available in your league, he’s worth taking a chance on right now.

Dallas Stars – WED @ STL, FRI VS CHI, SUN VS CHI

Dallas will play in St. Louis on Wednesday before hosting the Blackhawks twice, on Friday and Sunday, respectively. Given Chicago’s 10-20-1 record, including a 4-12-0 record on the road, this should be a good week for the Stars.

The Stars have a roughly equivalent offense to Colorado (3.52 goals per game compared to the Avalanche’s 3.64), but while the Avalanche achieve that success through a couple of superstars, Dallas’ top-end talent hasn’t been nearly as productive, but it compensates through its depth. Dallas has nine players with at least 20 points in contrast to Colorado’s four.

Thomas Harley isn’t among those who have hit 20 points, but he’s made great strides towards that milestone recently, contributing three goals and five points over his last four outings. Especially with Dallas’ relatively easy schedule next week, Harley has a good shot of extending that hot streak.

His success pales in comparison to Matt Duchene’s though, who has five goals and nine points in his past five outings. That brings him up to 11 goals and 29 points in 30 contests this season. He might not maintain that pace, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he at least surpasses the 60-point milestone before the end of the season, making him amazing value for his $3 million cap hit.

Edmonton Oilers – THU @ SJS, SAT @ LAK, SUN @ ANA (BTB)

Edmonton will get a week-long break before playing in San Jose on Thursday. After that, they’ll travel to LA for a contest Saturday and then play in Anaheim on Sunday. It’s not a particularly easy schedule, but with less to choose from this week, I felt it was worth highlighting the Oilers.

Connor McDavid continues to be dominant, supplying 10 goals and 33 points over his last 17 contests and his success should continue going forward. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is likely to stay productive too after contributing three goals and 12 points over his last seven outings. Then there’s also Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and defenseman Evan Bouchard, who have the potential to step up on any given night.

The one high-end player who hasn’t been living up to his potential recently is Evander Kane. The 32-year-old has been fine this year with 12 goals and 22 points in 30 contests, but he’s on a five-game scoring drought and has just two points over his last nine outings. Kane tends to be a somewhat streaky player though, so don’t be surprised if he starts playing like a superstar for a little while after breaking out of his present slump.

Keep an eye on Sam Gagner as well. He registered two assists in Thursday’s 6-3 win over New Jersey, bringing him up to a goal and five points over his last six contests. He’s only averaging 10:56 of ice time this year but has seen some time on the second power-play unit and will occasionally share the ice with some combination of Nugent-Hopkins, Kane and McDavid at even strength.

New Jersey Devils – WED @CBJ, FRI @ OTT, SAT @ BOS

The Devils will host the Blue Jackets on Wednesday before playing in Ottawa on Friday and Boston on Saturday. As noted above, the Blue Jackets and Senators have the two worst records in the Eastern Conference, so those are games the Devils need to win to avoid falling behind in the tight Wild Card race.

The Devils have already hurt their cause by dropping their last three games. They’ve scored just six goals in that span, which isn’t nearly good enough for a team that averages 3.61 goals allowed per game.

Vitek Vanecek (3.35 GAA, .883 save percentage) and Akira Schmid (3.25 GAA, .893 save percentage) haven’t been good enough, especially compared to the Devils’ defense in front of them, which has been average thus far with an XGA/60 of 3.2 -- putting New Jersey 18th in the league in that regard.

It’s worth keeping an eye on New Jersey’s goaltending situation, though, because if Schmid or Vanecek rebound, then they’ll be positioned to secure the No. 1 job on a team averaging an impressive 3.42 worth of goal support per game.

Here’s one interesting scenario to keep in the back of your mind: Joseph Woll (ankle) going on the injured reserve list led to the Maple Leafs calling up Martin Jones, who hasn’t been great, but has had his moments, including a 38-save shutout over Pittsburgh last Saturday. When Woll returns, Jones will likely be put on waivers to send to the AHL. If neither of the Devils’ goaltenders has rebounded by that point, is it possible that they’d put in a waiver claim for Jones? There might be other opportunities for New Jersey to claim a goaltender too -- Montreal is carrying three healthy netminders, for example -- and whatever netminder the Devils potentially add would be entering a favorable situation.

Goalies aside, you might want to consider Michael McLeod as a short-term pickup. He’s on a three-game scoring streak, collecting two goals and four points in that span.

New York Islanders – WED VS PIT, FRI VS WSH, SUN @ PIT

The Islanders will open the week at home with contests against the Penguins on Wednesday and the Capitals on Friday. The Islanders will then travel to Pittsburgh for a game Sunday. For much of the salary cap era, a week full of matches against Pittsburgh and Washington would have been a nightmare, but with those two teams aging cores, it’s not nearly as bad of a schedule nowadays.

The Islanders typically rotate between Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov, but Varlamov has allowed at least three goals in each of his last nine contests, so you have to wonder if Sorokin will start in all three games next week given how spread out the upcoming schedule is. Sorokin has had his struggles too this campaign, but he’s 3-0-1 with a 2.44 GAA and a .929 save percentage over his last four outings, so he has been the better option recently.

Traditionally goaltending has been at the heart of the Islanders’ success, but dating back to Nov. 18, the Islanders rank second offensively, averaging 3.69 goals per game. Brock Nelson has been a huge part of that, especially this month with him supplying five goals and 12 points in 10 contests. Meanwhile, Bo Horvat has eight goals and 17 points over his last 12 contests and Mathew Barzal’s contributed five goals and 17 points over his past 11 appearances.

Anders Lee hasn’t been nearly as impressive, scoring nine goals and 12 points in 32 outings this year, but he might be heating up after finding the back of the net in each of his last two contests.

Toronto Maple Leafs – WED VS OTT, FRI @ CBJ, SAT VS CAR

The Maple Leafs have a home contest against the Senators on Wednesday, then they’ll play in Columbus on Friday and finish the week by hosting the Hurricanes on Saturday.

As noted above, Joseph Woll is out with an ankle injury. He’s not likely to return next week, which leaves the Maple Leafs with Ilya Samsonov and Martin Jones. You’d think Samsonov would be leaned on under those circumstances, but the 26-year-old goaltender has a 5-2-5 record, 3.79 GAA and .871 save percentage in 14 contests this campaign. He’s been particularly bad lately, allowing 15 goals on 83 shots (.819 save percentage) over his last three contests. Under those circumstances, Jones might start in two of Toronto’s three games next week, making him an okay pickup if you need starts.

While the Maple Leafs have some goaltending issues, they’ve found success at the other end of the ice. Auston Matthews is leading that charge with an unreal 12 goals over his last eight contests. I floated the possibility of Matthews having a 50-in-50 run back in mid-October. The 26-year-old had a stretch from Nov. 8-30 in which he had just one goal in nine contests, which likely killed his chances of becoming the first player since Brett Hull in 1991-92 to accomplish that tremendous feat, but even still, Matthews isn’t fully out of the running after scoring 26 goals over Toronto’s first 30 games.

Lost a little in the noise is Max Domi being productive in limited time. He has three goals and seven points in nine contests despite averaging just 12:22 of ice time. It’s impressive and makes him worthy of utilizing in the short-term, but the Maple Leafs are likely to be buyers at the deadline, so eventually Domi’s already small role might diminish further.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Fantilli takes on more responsibility – Rasmussen stepping up – Zary providing scoring punch – plus much more ..

Scott Cullen — Fri, 15 Dec 2023 21:07:45 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - OCTOBER 26: Columbus Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli (11) waits for a face-off during the Columbus Blue Jackets versus the Montreal Canadiens game on October 26, 2023, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Adam Fantilli takes on more responsibility in Columbus, Michael Rasmussen is stepping up in Detroit, Connor Zary is providing scoring punch for Calgary, and Edmonton has a goaltender offering fantasy value once again.

#1 It can be difficult to make the jump straight from college hockey to the NHL and it’s even more challenging when the player is asked to handle major responsibility at the NHL level. Columbus’ Adam Fantilli has recorded six points (4 G, 2 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past seven games and with Boone Jenner injured, Fantilli has now been thrust into the role of top line centre, skating with Johnny Gaudreau. Patrik Laine has also been recently injured and that has opened up a spot for Justin Danforth to play right wing on that line. Fantilli played a career high 19:29 in Thursday’s win at Toronto and he is looking at significant ice time for at least the next few months, as long as he can handle it.

#2 At the start of the season, Michael Rasmussen was languishing on the bottom half of the Red Wings depth chart, managing just five points (2 G, 3 A) in 19 games. December has brought more production from the 6-foot-6 centre, as Rasmussen has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in seven games this month. With Dylan Larkin and J.T. Compher injured and David Perron appealing his six-game suspension, there is more ice time available in Detroit and Rasmussen is doing his part to earn it.

#3 Calgary Flames rookie winger Connor Zary has produced 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 20 games since getting called up from the American Hockey League early in the season. His 0.75 points per game ranks second among rookies, behind some character named Bedard, and is skating on a line with Nazem Kadri and fellow rookie Martin Pospisil. There is a warning sign, however. Zary has failed to record a shot on goal in three of his past four games and has a total of 24 shots on goal in 20 games. That is not the ideal path to sustainable offensive production.

#4 Surrendering five goals on 22 shots in Thursday’s loss to Tampa Bay put a damper on the recently improved play of Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner. The Calder Trophy runner-up last season, Skinner started poorly this year and, with Jack Campbell demoted to the AHL, the Oilers were still pushing Skinner out there, hoping for better results. Before Thursday’s loss, they were getting those better results, as Skinner had seven straight wins with a .935 save percentage in his previous seven starts.

#5 Arizona Coyotes winger Matias Maccelli continues to produce. He had 49 points in 64 games last season and is up to 21 points (5 G, 16 A) in 28 games this season after scoring five points (2 G, 3 A) in his past six games. What is more compelling about Maccelli’s production is that he is shooting the puck a lot more. HE has 22 shots on goal in his past six contests, which is a substantial upgrade over his 36 shots on goal in 22 games before that.

#6 With Winnipeg Jets sniper Kyle Connor out 6-8 weeks after taking a knee-on-knee hit from Ryan Strome, the Jets will need Nikolaj Ehlers to handle more of the offensive load. He has tended to be underused in the past couple of seasons but does have 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 38 shots on goal in his past 15 games. Now, the challenge will be maintaining that kind of production with Gabe Vilardi moving up to the top line to fill in for Connor.

#7 It is fair to say that Mason Marchment’s first season in Dallas did not go according to plan, as he finished with 31 points (12 G, 19 A) in 68 games. He scored on just 8.1 percent of his shots on goal, which contributed to his lower than anticipated output. This season, Marchment has scored on 16.1 percent of his shots on goal and has put up 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 30 shots on goal in his past 12 games. It’s amazing what a difference it makes to score at nearly double the rate of shots on goal! Nevertheless, Marchment has found a good fit alongside veterans Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin in Big D.

#8 New York Islanders captain Anders Lee got off to an abysmal start this season, managing just two points (1 G, 1 A) through his first 15 games. For a player who lives at the top of the crease, that’s not making the most of his opportunities. Lee’s production is starting to improve, though, as he has eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 34 shots on goal in his past 13 games. Lee is back on the Islanders’ top line, with Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal, so that should provide more consistent scoring opportunities.

#9 Coming off a career high 27 points last season, Vancouver Canucks winger Sam Lafferty is getting a great opportunity to skate on Vancouver’s top line with Elias Pettersson and Ilya Mikheyev. Lafferty has contributed five points (3 G, 2 A) in his past six games, and his situation makes him appealing in the short term but his track record and the possibility that he could easily get bumped down the depth chart does put a limit on his appeal in this scoring role.

#10 With Philipp Grubauer injured, Joey Daccord is looking at his best opportunity to establish himself in net for the Seattle Kraken. Daccord, 27, does have a .912 save percentage in his past eight appearances, so he could be an upgrade on the underachieving Grubauer. If Daccord falters, Chris Driedger might get some time, too. The 29-year-old missed all of last season after suffering a torn ACL at the 2022 World Championships. Driedger was squeezed out of Seattle at the start of the season but had a .916 save percentage in 15 games for Coachella Valley in the AHL at the time of his recall.

#11 The Carolina Hurricanes are not scoring enough and one of the reasons is that Andrei Svechnikov had managed just one goal on 41 shots in 16 games. He is out indefinitely with an upper-body injury, so Stefan Noesen has moved up the Carolina depth chart. Noesen has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in his past eight games and played a season-high 16:38 in Thursday’s win at Detroit.

#12 A top checking centre for the Tampa Bay Lightning, Anthony Cirelli is at his best when he is contributing at both ends of the rink. He is having a good run recently with seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 16 shots on goal in his past 6 games. Cirelli is playing with Tanner Jeannot and Brandon Hagel, a trio that is giving the Lightning legitimate secondary scoring behind their powerful top line.

#13 Detroit’s injuries have provided not only an opportunity for the aforementioned Michael Rasmussen, but also for Joe Veleno, a 23-year-old centre who has mostly been a fourth liner to this point in his career. In his past four games, Veleno has contributed three points (1 G, 2 A) while playing more than 21 minutes in every contest. He is centering Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane, while also getting first unit power play time. That may not last, especially once the Wings get healthy, but in the short term, Veleno suddenly finds himself offering potential value for fantasy managers.

#14 Boston Bruins centre Pavel Zacha is injured and that has opened the door for Morgan Geekie to take on a bigger role, skating on Boston’s top line with wingers Jake DeBrusk and David Pastrnak. Geekie had a career high 28 points (9 G, 19 A) in Seattle last season, so his offensive track record is limited, but he has played more than 17 minutes in back-to-back games contributed goal and an assist in those two contests.

#15 A big hit from Colorado Avalanche centre Nathan MacKinnon has landed Buffalo Sabres left winger Jeff Skinner on the injured list with an upper-body injury. That does create an opportunity for rookie Zach Benson who has shown flashes of skill on his way to a modest eight points (3 G, 5 A) in 20 games, but Benson is on a line with Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens, along with second unit power play time so, at the very least, it is worth monitoring his progress.

#16 Ottawa Senators defenceman Thomas Chabot is out for at least four weeks with a leg injury, which comes on the heels of a broken hand that cost him time earlier in the season. He has appeared in just nine games as a result, and his current injury opens the door for Jake Sanderson to step up as Ottawa’s No. 1 defenceman. Sanderson opened the season with 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in 14 games but has managed just two points (1 G, 1 A) in 10 games since. However, with the chance to quarterback the Sens’ top power play, Sanderson becomes more valuable for fantasy managers.

#17 Among players that have played at least 50 minutes in December, the leaders in individual expected goals per 60 minutes: Kyle Connor (2.81), John Tavares (2.67), Zach Hyman (2.30), Anders Lee (2.09), Quinton Byfield (2.03), Dylan Larkin (2.02), Austin Matthews (2.01), Colton Sissons (2.01), and Carter Verhaeghe (2.00). While there are familiar and expected names in that list, it should be an encouraging sign for the likes of Lee and Byfield, that their production could be sustained, while Sissons could be worth watching in deeper leagues as he has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 13 shots on goal in seven games this month.

#18 It has been a running theme here this season how unpredictable goaltenders can be. Among the 27 goaltenders that have appeared in at least four games this month, here are the leaders in save percentage: Juuse Saros (.953), Filip Gustavsson (.944), Connor Hellebuyck (.939), Petr Mrazek (.938), and Joey Daccord (.934). You will be forgiven for doing a double take at the last two names on that list. Then take a look at the other end. Here are the bottom five goaltenders for save percentage in December, minimum four games: Arvid Soderblom (.844), Igor Shesterkin (.865), Jake Oettinger (.868), Sergei Bobrovsky (.878), and Joonas Korpisalo (.884). Shesterkin and Oettinger are unexpected entries but consider that this is a very small sample size and not representative of a goalie’s overall value.

#19 Among defenceman to play at least 50 minutes this month, the leaders in individual expected goals per 60 minutes: Jacob MacDonald (0.93), Charlie McAvoy (0.61), Darnell Nurse (0.57), K’Andre Miller (0.55), and Drew Doughty (0.54). Leaders in shots on goal per 60 minutes: Mike Reilly (11.73), Justin Faulk (11.27), Jacob MacDonald (10.24), Rasmus Dahlin (9.47), and Morgan Rielly (8.90). MacDonald does have three goals in five games in December, but it is still tough to trust that he will have regular ice time in San Jose. Reilly is making the most of his opportunity with the Islanders. He has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past five games and played a season high 20:37 in Wednesdays win over Anaheim.

#20 Forwards who have yet to score in December with the highest total of shots on goal: Cole Caufield (29), Dylan Cozens (22), Yanni Gourde (22), Carl Grundstrom (18), Timo Meier (18), and Cam Atkinson (18). This should be encouraging, that these players are still generating shots on goal and that eventually leads to actual goals. In the case of someone like Caufield, who has established his credentials as a finisher, it would seem to be just a matter of time before he breaks through.

FANTASY: The Week Ahead – December 4th to December 10th – Senators Challenges Grow – Chicago, Colorado, Detroit, Los Angeles, Montreal among teams to target.

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 04 Dec 2023 17:17:11 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 21: Ottawa Senators Left Wing Brady Tkachuk (7) before a face-off during second period National Hockey League action between the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators on October 21, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

The opening for last week’s article was about Minnesota, so that’s twice now that I featured a team right before the coach was fired (the other instance of that was Edmonton). With apologies to D.J. Smith, I do want to discuss the Senators.

Ottawa is in a tricky position. The Senators went through the rebuilding process, having three top-five picks in three years from 2018-20 (Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson) followed by possessing the No. 10 selection in the 2021 NHL Draft (used on Tyler Boucher). Since then, they haven’t had a first-round pick, surrendering the 2022 selection to acquire Alex DeBrincat and their top pick in 2023 to get Jakob Chychrun. While they didn’t spend those picks on older players (and in the case of DeBrincat, they’re getting a first rounder back in the subsequent deal that shipped him to Detroit), it signaled that Ottawa is trying to move past the rebuilding phase.

It hasn’t worked out though. Ottawa was a middlingly 39-35-8 in 2022-23 and rather than take a step forward, the Senators are 9-10-0 this year. With Stutzle and Tkachuk having developed into star forwards while being backed by talented veterans Claude Giroux and Vladimir Tarasenko, Ottawa’s succeeded in troubling opposing goaltenders by scoring 3.32 goals per game, which puts the Senators in a four-way tie for ninth offensively.

Ottawa is also shaping up to be an amazing defensive team. In terms of expected goals against, the Senators rank second with 55.98. The Senators are an example of the reality of the NHL though: Even with a good offense and a strong defense, if your last line of defense is bad, then you’re still in trouble. Anton Forsberg has a 3.03 GAA and an .882 save percentage in eight contests this year. Joonas Korpisalo, who the Senators signed to a five-year, $20 million contract in the hopes that he’d stabilize their goaltending situation, has a 3.41 GAA and an .897 save percentage in 13 contests.

Things might be even worse than they look. Ottawa had 14 of its first 19 contests at home. That skewed schedule in the Senators’ favor will come back to haunt them from Dec. 14-Jan. 11 -- a stretch where they’ll play 11 of 14 contests on the road.

Chicago Blackhawks

The Blackhawks have four games ahead of them this week. They’ll face the Predators on Tuesday, the Ducks on Thursday, the Blues on Saturday and the Capitals on Sunday. The Capitals are the toughest of those teams with a 12-7-2 while the rest of the squads have been middling at best this year.

Chicago acquired Anthony Beauvillier from Vancouver last Tuesday, but he’s missed two of Chicago’s last three games due to visa issues. The exception was Saturday’s contest because it was in Winnipeg. In that game, Beauvillier played on the top line with Connor Bedard and Philipp Kurashev. If that’s his role going forward, which seems likely, then the trade could provide him with a substantial boost to his fantasy value. As a member of the Canucks, he was averaging just 13:39 of ice time, which is part of the reason why he was limited to two goals and eight points. As a member of Chicago’s first line, Beauvillier could conceivably get 30-40 points over the final 60 contests.

The Blackhawks could certainly use the help that Beauvillier should provided. Over the last three games, Chicago has managed just three goals. Connor Bedard factored on all of them (one goal, two assists), bringing him up to 11 goals and 20 points in 23 contests this campaign. He’s the man Chicago was hoping for, but arguably obtaining a superstar is the easy part. For that, you just need to tank and then win the lottery, which isn’t exactly a high-skill maneuver. Building around that superstar post-tank is the hard part, and it will likely be years before we’ll know if the Blackhawks can succeed in that phase.

It would help if Lukas Reichel, who is a high-end prospect in his own right, got going. The 22-year-old was a healthy scratch Sunday after scoring two goals and six points over his first 22 contests this year. While being scratched obviously isn’t great, the silver lining is that it gives him a chance to reset and view the action from a different perspective. Maybe it will help in the long run.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche have just three games this week, but they’re all home contests. They’ll start with the struggling Ducks on Tuesday (though it is worth noting Anaheim did manage to squeak away with a 4-3 shootout win over Colorado last Saturday) before facing Winnipeg on Thursday and Philadelphia on Saturday.

The Avalanche lost Cale Makar to a lower-body injury Saturday, and he missed Sunday’s game as a result. It remains to be seen how long he’ll be unavailable, but he’s the backbone of Colorado’s offense and defense, so losing him for any meaningful stretch of time would be a huge blow.

Sam Malinski drew into the lineup Sunday, logging 18:09 of ice time. He’s likely to remain in the lineup for as long as Makar is out. Malinski won’t come close to replacing the superstar’s offensive contributions, but Malinski does have three goals and nine points in 17 contests with AHL Colorado in 2023-24, so he might chip in a little. As far as the power play goes, Bowen Byram is likely to see time on the second unit while Devon Toews moves up to the top grouping, so both of their fantasy value will likely see a modest uptick in Makar’s absence.

Interestingly, rather than any of them, it was Josh Manson who factored in Sunday, scoring the Avalanche’s lone goal in a 4-1 loss to LA. Manson also registered an assist Saturday, so he’s at the start of what could be a hot streak, but it’s best to keep expectations low. After all, Manson has just three points in 21 contests this campaign, even after factoring in his recent production. He also has 32 PIM, 40 hits and 33 blocks, so he offers some additional utility if you did want to grab him in the hopes that his offensive run will last a little longer.

Detroit Red Wings

Detroit is set to play in Buffalo on Tuesday before heading home to face the Sharks on Thursday and the Senators on Saturday. All three of those opponents are in the bottom third of the league’s standings, so the Red Wings are in a strong position to go on a winning streak.

Patrick Kane signed a one-year, $2.75 million contract with the Red Wings on Nov. 28, but he’s likely to miss at least the first two contests this week as he looks to get back up to speed after undergoing hip surgery in June. When he does return, Kane will likely play alongside his old Blackhawks linemate, Alex DeBrincat, along with Dylan Larkin on Detroit’s top line. That should be a very effective unit, and while there’s an element of risk to Kane coming off surgery, he has the potential to record 40-50 points over the remainder of the campaign.

Getting Kane into the lineup might push Joe Veleno, who has averaged 15:00 of ice time this year, out of a top-six role. It also could cost David Perron his spot on the first power-play unit and push Robby Fabbri out of a power-play role entirely.

In terms of which Red Wings might benefit from having Kane on the roster, outside of Larkin and DeBrincat, we also might see Michael Rasmussen enjoy an indirect boost. Kane’s addition frees up Lucas Raymond to bolster the second line, which should help Rasmussen.

Detroit’s power play already enjoys a 23.5 conversion rate, which is eighth in the league, but if Kane is able to make the first unit even more successful, then that will also help defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere, whose production is closely tied to special teams.

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings are on the road this week, but their first two contests are against struggling adversaries in Columbus on Tuesday and Montreal on Thursday. The Kings will then travel to New York to face the Islanders on Saturday and the Rangers on Sunday.

Los Angeles is also one of the hottest teams in the league, having won six of its last seven contests. Trevor Moore has played a big role in the Kings’ recent success, scoring five goals and eight points in that seven-game span to climb to 12 markers and 20 points in 21 outings this year. Meanwhile, Adrian Kempe has collected four assists over his last four contests, giving him eight goals and 22 points in 21 contests in 2023-24.

In net, Cam Talbot continues to get most of the workload and deservedly so. He has a 1.96 GAA and a .930 save percentage through 16 games. Backup Pheonix Copley has a far uglier 3.04 GAA and .868 save percentage in six outings, but he’s won his last two starts while saving 48 of 49 shots (.980 save percentage) over that span. Copley will likely have an opportunity to extend that run against either the Islanders or the Rangers this weekend.

Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens will host the Kraken on Monday and the Kings on Thursday. Then the Canadiens will travel to Buffalo on Saturday before returning to Montreal to host the Predators on Sunday. It’s a busy week, and the Kings are a tough opponent, but Nashville, Buffalo and Seattle all have sub-.500 records.

Goaltender Jake Allen has a 3.74 GAA and an .898 save percentage in 10 contests this season, and he’s done particularly bad lately, posting a 4.63 GAA and an .871 save percentage over his last six outings. Cayden Primeau hasn’t done any better with a 4.24 GAA and an .875 save percentage over his last three contests, so there’s an opening here for Sam Montembeault to run away with the starting gig.

Montembeault has a 5-3-1 record, 2.73 GAA and .910 save percentage in 10 contests this campaign and has won his last two starts while saving 56 of 61 shots (.918 save percentage) over that span. The Canadiens also made a three-year, $9.45 million commitment to the 27-year-old goaltender Friday, which further increases the chances of him claiming that top spot.

In terms of hot players offensively, blueliner Gustav Lindstrom has scored two goals over his last three contests. He’s not someone you should expect a lot of productivity from -- over 139 career games, he has just 29 points -- but he’s clicking at the moment. Joel Armia also has two goals over his last three outings and importantly has averaged 15:35 of ice time over that stretch, up from 12:38 over his previous six games with Montreal.

Seattle Kraken

Seattle lost four straight contests to drop to 8-11-6 this campaign. The pressure is on the Kraken to turn things around this week, especially with a slate of home games on the horizon. First, they’ll play in Montreal on Monday, but then the Kraken will host the Devils on Thursday, the Lightning on Saturday and the Wild on Sunday.

The Kraken have scored just seven goals over their last four games, but Tye Kartye has been an outlier over that stretch with two goals and three points. The 22-year-old rookie still has just four goals and eight points through 24 outings this campaign, but he might be getting more comfortable as the year progresses. He certainly showed offensive upside in the 2022-23 campaign, supplying 28 goals and 57 points in 72 AHL outings. You can try taking a chance on him while he’s hot in the hope that his recent success might lead to something more. If nothing else, he’s a decent source of PIM and hits, having 25 and 43, respectively, this year.

Jared McCann has also provided two goals and three points over that four-game stretch, bringing him up to 11 markers and 16 points in 25 outings this year. However, that’s still well behind his pace from 2022-23 when he finished with 40 goals and 70 points. Rather than replicate his production from last year, McCann is more likely to finish with around 50-55 points, falling more in line with his 2021-22 showing.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay was expecting the return of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to bolster the team, but instead, the Lightning have lost four straight games. To be fair, Tampa Bay has provided just five goals during its losing streak, so Vasilevskiy hasn’t gotten sufficient support, but the netminder also has a 3.87 GAA and an .859 save percentage through four starts. Perhaps it’s hard for him to find his rhythm after missing the start of the campaign with a back injury.

The Lightning will attempt to right the ship this week with home games against the Stars on Monday and the Penguins on Wednesday, followed by a road trip taking them to Nashville on Thursday and Seattle on Saturday.

I do expect Vasilevskiy to settle in as the campaign goes on, so this might be a good time to explore the possibility of acquiring him at a discounted price. After missing so much time and struggling so badly out of the gate, some fantasy managers might be frustrated enough to move him.

In terms of hot players, Nikita Kucherov is basically all the Lightning have at the moment. He’s managed to assist on all five of the Lightning’s markers over the last four games, propelling him to 15 goals and 40 points through 24 contests this year.

Victor Hedman has also done well with a goal and three points over his last four outings. If you’re lucky enough to have the blueliner on your fantasy team, you’ve been treated to consistent production – he hasn’t had a scoring drought longer than two outings this year.

Beyond those two, though, no Tampa Bay player has recorded more than a point over the last four games. If there’s a silver lining among that group, it’s Tanner Jeannot, who has at least been productive in other ways. In addition to scoring a power-play goal over that four-contest stretch, he’s also recorded 15 PIM and 18 hits.

Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights hit a rough patch from Nov. 5-28 in which they posted a 3-5-3 record, but that seems to be behind them after earning back-to-back 4-1 victories against Vancouver and Washington, respectively. They’ll attempt to build on that with their home-and-away series against St. Louis on Monday and Wednesday. Following those contests, the Golden Knights will play in Dallas on Saturday and host the Sharks on Sunday.

We just covered Seattle and Tampa Bay, which had somewhat slim pickings when it came to hot players, but that’s not the case with Vegas. Four Golden Knights forwards have recorded at least three points over the last three contests: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Michael Amadio and Ivan Barbashev.

Of them, Amadio and Barbashev might be obtainable in fantasy leagues if you’re looking for someone to provide you with a short-term boost. Barbashev would be a particularly interesting option since he spent his first 410 career NHL games with St. Louis before being dealt to Vegas in February, so he might play with a little extra during the upcoming two contests.

It’s also worth noting that Adin Hill sustained a lower-body injury Thursday and missed Saturday’s contest as a result. It’s not clear how long he’ll be out for, but if he doesn’t return by the weekend, then Jiri Patera might get a start, perhaps versus San Jose. Patera isn’t having a great campaign with a 3.17 GAA and a .900 save percentage in 14 appearances with AHL Henderson, but he did post a 2.50 GAA and a .929 save percentage in two outings with Vegas last season, and the Sharks are a favorable opponent, so if it looks like he’ll get the start for that game then you should consider Patera as a situational pickup.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Early Standouts – Significant early injuries – Who benefits from opportunity

Scott Cullen — Fri, 20 Oct 2023 22:14:31 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 14: Ottawa Senators Right Wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) after a whistle during second period National Hockey League action between the Philadelphia Flyers and Ottawa Senators on October 14, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, a look at a new Panthers winger plus lots of early injuries including to significant players like Sebastian Aho, Gabriel Vilardi, Kirby Dach, Viktor Arvidsson, Matthew Boldy, Pavel Buchnevich, and more. That means new opportunities for others looking for a bigger role.

#1 In the past couple of seasons, Evan Rodrigues has proven to be a premier shot generator who could thrive in a supporting offensive role. In those two seasons – one with Pittsburgh and one with Colorado – he put up 82 points (35 G, 47 A) in 151 games while generating 2.85 shots on goal per game. That was something of a late breakthrough for the now 30-year-old forward who is looking at an even better opportunity this season in Florida. Rodrigues has opened the season skating on Aleksander Barkov’s wing and is averaging 18:54 time on ice per game, which would be a career high, on the way to producing five points (2 G, 3 A) and 17 shots on goal in his first four games. It is obviously a very small sample, but Rodrigues has the underlying numbers to make his production more sustainable. For a player that has never had 20 goals and 50 points in an NHL season, Rodrigues should be looking to exceed those numbers this season.

#2 Entering the season, there did not seem to be a lot of buzz surrounding new Ottawa Senators right winger Vladimir Tarasenko, a six-time 30-goal scorer who signed with the club as a free agent. The veteran winger has opened his Sens tenure with six points (2 G, 4 A) in four games, but that doesn’t alleviate the concerns about him entirely, either. He is averaging just 13:38 of ice time per game, which would be his lowest since his rookie season in 2012-2013, and he only has six shots on goal through four games. Although Tarasenko has been skating with rookie Ridly Greig at center, with Josh Norris returning to the Senators lineup, that could eventually help Tarasenko get more offensive opportunities, but the ice time and shot rate bear watching.

#3 It is not easy for Ottawa Senators defenceman Jake Sanderson to get power play time on a team with Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun already, which is not to say that it never happens, only that he ranks second among Sens defencemen in five-on-four ice time behind Chabot. Even so, Sanderson is off to a stellar start, producing five points (2 G, 3 A) in four games. He only has five shots on goal, which is not encouraging, but Sanderson is going to get quality ice time, even if he is not always going to be quarterbacking Ottawa’s top power play unit.

#4 A lot was made of the decline in performance last season from Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Victor Hedman, but it might be premature to start the 32-year-old blueliner into a heavy decline phase of his career. Hedman has contributed five points (1 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal through five games, which is a promising start, but the Lightning have been getting outshot with Hedman on the ice (46.2 CF%), too, and that hasn’t happened for more than a decade.

#5 Carolina Hurricanes centre Sebastian Aho has been out for a couple of games and while his injury is thought to be a day-to-day thing, his absence is still felt. Through a couple of games, the Hurricanes were getting 79.1% of expected goals with Aho on the ice during five-on-five play, In Aho’s absence, Teuvo Teravainen has moved into the first line centre role and Teravainen has scored four goals in five games to start the season. Additionally, the Hurricanes have better depth down the middle as Jesperi Kotkaniemi continues to develop. The 23-year-old has started his sixth NHL season with five points (2 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in five games, averaging a career-high 15:51 of ice time per game.

#6 In a move that didn’t make a huge offseason splash, the Detroit Red Wings brought in puck-moving defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere. While he does not have a huge role, averaging 18:53 of ice time per game, Gostisbehere is getting first unit power play time alongside Moritz Seider and Gostisbehere already has four points (1 G, 3 A) in four games with the Red Wings controlling play (53.2 CF%) in Gostisbehere’s five-on-five minutes.

#7 Toronto Maple Leafs centre Auston Matthews is the early leader in all-situations expected goals (3.76), ahead of Matthew Tkachuk (3.23), Connor Bedard (3.10), Artturi Lehkonen (2.85), Filip Forsberg (2.74), and Jack Eichel (2.64). Bedard is obviously playing a lot for Chicago and creating chances, but they have yet to materialize into goals. For a player who enters the league with a legendary release, Bedard’s ability to generate high-quality shots bodes well for his future production. It’s also encouraging to see Eichel playing at such a high level. He had an outstanding playoff, but it appears in the early going that Eichel is going to continue at an elite level. He leads the NHL with 28 shots on goal in five games, though Nathan MacKinnon (27) and Auston Matthews (26) are close behind while playing just four games.

#8 Winnipeg Jets RW Gabriel Vilardi is out for four-to-six weeks with a sprained MCL, which is a tough situation for a player who was averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game through two games. Vilardi was also rocking a 73.3 CF%, but now the Jets will need to find someone to fill those minutes. It looks like Mason Appleton will get first crack alongside Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele and that is a big opportunity for a 27-year-old who scored a career-high 25 points (12 G, 13 A) in 56 games in 2020-2021.

#9 Montreal lost centre Kirby Dach to a torn ACL, ending the 22-year-old’s season prematurely. He had two assists and 70.4 CF% in two games before getting hurt. Alex Newhook will slide into the middle of the ice to fill the hole created by Dach’s absence, while Tanner Pearson will move up the depth chart to take Newhook’s spot on left wing. Pearson, who played just 14 games last season, has two goals in three games to start his Habs career.

#10 On the Florida Panthers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final last season, Sam Bennett was an impact player at centre, between Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk. Bennett has yet to play this season because of a lower-body injury, so Eetu Luostarinen is getting that opportunity. Unfortunately, he has yet to record a point and has just one shot on goal in four games. That is not making the most of the situation.

#11 Los Angeles Kings winger Viktor Arvidsson has been an excellent and sometimes underrated contributor, but he is out long term after undergoing back surgery, which means new opportunities on the right side in Los Angeles. Arthur Kaliyev is skating in Arvidsson’s typical spot, alongside Phillip Danault and Trevor Moore, while rookie Alexis Laferriere has landed a prime spot on the wing with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Kevin Fiala. Kaliyev may have the higher upside as a scorer, as he has shown a strong ability to generate shots, even in limited ice time. Arvidsson’s injury should help ensure that Kaliyev sees a good jump in ice time this season, opening the door for a breakout season.

#12 Injuries have hit the Minnesota Wild hard early in the season. Rising star winger Matthew Boldy and defencemen Jared Spurgeon and Alex Goligoski are all out of action for Minnesota and they are not easily replaced. Taking Boldy’s spot is Samuel Walker, a 24-year-old who has two points (1 G, 1 A) in 10 career NHL games and did not have any points in two AHL games this season, but he did produce 48 points (27 G, 21 A) in 56 AHL games last season, so this is a real chance to Walker to show his stuff at the NHL level. Spurgeon’s absence also gives Calen Addison the role of first unit power play quarterback, which is an area in which the young defenceman has excelled, with 18 of his 29 points last season coming with the man advantage.

#13 While fourth lines are not going to bring big fantasy appeal, it’s worth noting what is happening in Detroit, where Christian Fischer (83.7 xGF%) and Klim Kostin (80.2 xGF%) are dominating play to a ridiculous degree. Austin Czarnik has played only two games, but Detroit has controlled 86.3% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Czarnik on the ice.

#14 Staying in Detroit, veteran winger Robby Fabbri made it through one game before suffering another injury and Fabbri’s injury presents an opportunity for Michael Rasmussen to climb up the depth chart. Rasmussen had a career-high 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 56 games last season, but his average ice time has increased by more than a minute per game in the early going this season and he has a couple of points (1 G, 1 A) in four games.

#15 Although he can get overshadowed by the top two centres on the Devils roster, Erik Haula’s upper body injury is notable for a team that thrives on its depth. With Haula out, Michael McLeod moves from the fourth line centre to third line centre and while McLeod has established that he is a solid fourth liner, his offensive production has kept him in that role. He has just 10 goals in 157 games over the past two seasons, so if McLeod is ever going to shake his fourth-line label, he will need to take advantage when he gets the chance to play in the top nine.

#16 Expectations were already very low for the San Jose Sharks coming into the season, but it has been made even more difficult with veteran centres Mikael Granlund and Logan Couture out of the lineup. Rookie Thomas Bordeleau and veteran Luke Kunin are handling the middle six centre roles for the Sharks. Bordeleau has managed one goal and five shots on goal through four games while he has been caved in when it comes to puck possession (31.1 CF%). Kunin has yet to record a point and is not much better at driving play (33.0 CF%). This should come as little surprise, but it reveals how much of an uphill fight it is for San Jose right now.

#17 St. Louis Blues winger Pavel Buchnevich suffered an upper-body injury when crushed into the boards by Seattle Kraken defenceman Jamie Oleksiak, and while Buchnevich has been out, the opportunity has fallen to 21-year-old Jake Neighbours, who has managed zero points and two shots on goal in three games this season. A chance to play in St. Louis’ top six is not bad, but it is up to Neighbours to show that he deserves to stay in a significant role over the long term.

#18 It is still super early, but there are some forwards raising red flags with their early struggles. Timo Meier was benched for the third period against Florida and has zero points and four shots on goal in three games. Meier has always been able to generate shots, so that is a notable concern with his game in New Jersey, but he really should be able to figure it out.

#19 When he returned to action last season following hip resurfacing surgery, Washington Capitals centre Nicklas Backstrom struggled, to a degree that he never really had in the NHL before. With a fresh start this season, 35-year-old Backstrom is still struggling to find his way. He has zero points in three games and is averaging 15:45 of ice time per game, which would be the lowest rate of his career. Backstrom is still getting top unit power play time but is skating between Sonny Milano and Tom Wilson at even strength, so he is not nearly the dangerous scoring threat that he was during his prime.

#20 After getting bought out by the Winnipeg Jets, 37-year-old right winger Blake Wheeler landed with the New York Rangers. Through four games with the Blueshirts, not only does Wheeler not have any points, but he is playing just 12:26 per game, which would be the lowest time on ice of his career. He is skating on a line with centre Vincent Trocheck and rookie left winger Will Cuylle. While Wheeler’s all-around game has declined in recent seasons, he still produced 55 points (16 G, 39 A) last season and early returns suggest that he will not be continuing at that level this season.