Johnny Gaudreau – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – A look at the playoff race – Teams with favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 23 Mar 2024 14:07:22 +0000

Last week I touched on Detroit’s losing streak, but the Red Wings’ situation has since stabilized. The Red Wings have won three of their past four games and earned a 6-3 victory in a key contest against the Islanders on Thursday. The Red Wings (36-28-6) now have a three-point edge over Washington (33-26-9) in the battle for the second wild-card spot, though Washington has two games in hand, so Detroit still has no margin for error.

At this stage, it looks like the fight for the final playoff seed in the East will come down to Detroit and Washington, but the Islanders (29-25-15), New Jersey (34-32-5), Buffalo (33-33-5) and even Pittsburgh (30-29-9) all have an outside chance of squeaking into the playoffs. Would it be shocking if, say, the Penguins earned a postseason berth? Absolutely, but it’s at least a mathematic possibility at the time of writing.

The final wild-card slot in the Western Conference is slightly more secure. Vegas (37-25-7) has a four-point edge over St. Louis (37-30-3) and a five-point lead over Minnesota (34-28-8) despite playing in one game less than either team. The Golden Knights likely still need to be solid down the stretch to secure their playoff berth, but at least they have a bit of breathing room.

The Blues and Wild are Vegas’ only real competition, but there is still an outside chance of a Cinderella story involving Calgary (33-30-5) or Seattle (28-28-12).

The Golden Knights still also have a path to earn the third seed in the Pacific Division over Los Angeles (36-22-11), though I’d almost say it doesn’t matter. Getting the third seed would put the Golden Knights on track to face Edmonton in the first round instead of Winnipeg, Colorado, Dallas or Vancouver. All five of those potential adversaries are great, so Vegas will have a tough first round either as a wild-card team or as the third seed in the Pacific Division.

Either way, the battle for the last playoff spots should be fun.

BOSTON, MA - JANUARY 24: Anaheim Ducks goalie Lukas Dostal (1) in warm up before a game between the Boston Bruins and the Anaheim Ducks on January 24, 2022, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Anaheim Ducks - TUE @ SEA, THU @ SEA, SAT @ EDM, SUN @ VAN (BTB)

Anaheim is set to play on the road all of next week. They have back-to-back contests against Seattle on Tuesday and Thursday, followed by games in Edmonton on Saturday and Vancouver on Sunday. It’s certainly not an easy schedule, especially on the back half, but the Ducks are one of the few teams scheduled to play four games, so they’re still worthy of mention.

Trevor Zegras hasn’t been in the lineup since Jan. 9 because of an ankle injury, but he has been able to resume practicing without restriction, which suggests that he’s close to returning. After exceeding the 60-point milestone in each of his previous two campaigns, he has just four goals and seven points in 20 outings this year. There’s a good chance he’ll at least be able to finish the year on a positive note, but regardless of what happens, it’s important you remember him for next season’s fantasy drafts. The 23-year-old forward should enjoy a comeback campaign, provided he gets better luck on the injury front.

The 2024-25 campaign should also be one of progress for Leo Carlsson, who has recorded nine goals and 24 points in 43 games as a rookie this season. In the meantime, though, he suffered a lower-body injury Thursday, so his status for next week’s contests is undetermined. If he can’t play then Isac Lundestrom might serve in a top-six capacity, but honestly rather than that be an opportunity for Lundestrom, it would just highlight the sorry state of the Ducks. The 24-year-old has just six points (four goals) in 34 contests this year and likely won’t do much offensively even if he moves up to the second line.

At least they have goaltender Lukas Dostal, who has done alright lately, posting a 2.69 GAA and a .916 save percentage over his past eight games. That’s worlds better than John Gibson’s 5.80 GAA (yes, really) and .833 save percentage in his past four outings. Given the disparity in their play, Dostal should get the majority of the remaining starts.

Buffalo Sabres – WED VS OTT, FRI VS NJD, SAT VS TOR (BTB)

The Sabres are likely to miss the playoffs for the 13th consecutive campaign, extending their record for the longest postseason drought in NHL history. However, they still have an outside shot of squeaking into the playoffs. In order to keep that hope alive, they’ll likely need to win all three of their contests against Ottawa on Wednesday, New Jersey on Friday and Toronto on Saturday. It’s a tall order, but at least the Sabres will have the home-ice advantage in all those games.

With Buffalo’s postseason hopes all but dashed, Jeff Skinner will likely have to wait even longer to make his first playoff appearance. The 31-year-old is approaching 1,000 career regular-season contests. This hasn’t been his best campaign, but Skinner has been alright with 24 goals and 45 points in 63 outings. He also earned his seventh career hat trick Monday when he led Buffalo in its 6-2 victory over Seattle.

Tage Thompson is surely hoping he won’t have to wait nearly as long as Skinner to get into the playoffs. However, if Thompson had played like he did in 2022-23 (47 goals, 94 points), perhaps the Sabres’ fortunes would have been different this campaign. Instead, he’s been alright, but not great with 21 goals and 43 points through 60 outings. The 27-year-old might end the season on a positive note, though. He’s on a four-game scoring streak in which Thompson has provided a goal and six points.

Meanwhile, Bowen Byram is just 22, but his name is already on the Cup thanks to his time with the Avalanche. Now a member of the Sabres, Byram is playing a prominent role and has taken advantage of that opportunity. He’s recorded three goals, six points, 17 blocks and 17 hits in eight contests while averaging 23:53 of ice time. Byram has even averaged a healthy 2:39 with the man advantage as a member of the Sabres, though the presence of Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power means the fight for power-play ice time will always be fierce among Buffalo defensemen.

Columbus Blue Jackets – TUE @ ARI, THU @ PIT, SAT VS PIT

This will mark the Blue Jackets’ fourth straight season without a playoff berth. Nothing they do now will alter the fact that it’s been a rough campaign, but they can at least end things on a positive note. It helps that they’ll be facing other non-playoff teams next week – they’ll play in Arizona on Tuesday, in Pittsburgh on Thursday and then host the Penguins on Saturday.

Johnny Gaudreau isn’t the reason Columbus will be missing the playoffs, though it is true he hasn’t lived up to expectations. His 55 points (11 goals) through 69 outings, would mark the lowest point-per-game pace of his career if the season ended now. However, Gaudreau has contributed a goal and six points in his past four contests, so the stage is set for him to finish the campaign on a positive note.

The same might be true of Alexander Nylander, who has eight goals and 11 points in 13 contests since being acquired by Columbus from Pittsburgh. The 26-year-old forward was held off the scoresheet in his previous two games, and it’s reasonable for fantasy managers to wonder if this is the right time to jump ship, especially because he doesn’t have a track record of success beyond his recent stretch. Personally, I recommend waiting a little longer though to see if his production picks up again. Keep in mind, Nylander is being utilized on the Blue Jackets’ top line and first power-play unit, which are roles that he hasn’t enjoyed for any noteworthy stretch until now, so there might be more to his production than a mere hot streak. I’m not saying that his new role has transformed him into a superstar, but he might still do well enough to be fantasy relevant the rest of the way.

Daniil Tarasov might have value going forward too. The 24-year-old has been subpar in 2023-24 with a 7-9-3 record, 3.20 GAA and .903 save percentage across 20 appearances, but he’s been far better dating back to Feb. 21, posting a 2.30 GAA and .934 save percentage over nine games. His strong play has led to the Blue Jackets increasingly using him over Elvis Merzlikins.

Ottawa Senators – WED @ BUF, THU VS CHI, SAT @ WPG

Ottawa will begin next week with a breather before playing in Buffalo on Wednesday. The Senators will then host Chicago on Thursday and play in Winnipeg on Saturday. Like Ottawa, the Sabres and Blackhawks are having campaigns and aren’t expected to make the playoffs (Chicago has been mathematically eliminated while Buffalo has just a fringe chance of a wild-card spot), so those are two winnable games.

Ottawa is in a four-way tie for 28th defensively with 3.59 goals per game despite having an xGA/60 of 2.94, which ties the Senators for 11th overall. Those two stats in combination suggest is Ottawa’s defense is underrated and has been made to look bad this year due to poor goaltending. A case could be made that Joonas Korpisalo has been this year’s worst starter, ranking last in Goals Saved Above Expected at minus-19.4. In terms of his base stats line, he has a 15-21-4 record, 3.37 GAA and .887 save percentage in 44 contests. While it would be an oversimplification to say that Ottawa isn’t making the playoffs because of Korpisalo, it is fair to say that his terrible play has been a key factor.

Unfortunately, it seems the Senators overvalued his strong 2022-23 campaign when they inked Korpisalo to a five-year contract. While he had a Goals Saved Above Expected of 12.7 last season, he finished in the negatives in each campaign from 2017-18 through 2021-22, so performing below average relative to the team in front of him appears to be the norm for Korpisalo rather than the exception. This is all to say that if you’re looking for the 29-year-old goaltender to rebound in 2024-25, you’re making a risky bet that likely won’t pay off.

Not that Anton Forsberg, who has a 12-12-0 record, 3.42 GAA and .885 save percentage in 25 outings in 2023-24, is good either. Forsberg is signed through 2024-25 at a cap hit of $2.75 million, so Ottawa might have this unfortunate duo again next year. If that’s the case, it’s hard to see them making the playoffs in 2024-25 either.

That’s unfortunate for Claude Giroux, who is 36 years old and consequently running out of chances to make another run at the Cup. If the direction of the Senators has been weighing on him, though, he hasn’t let that bleed into his game. He’s still provided a goal and five points over his past six contests, giving him 19 goals and 58 points through 68 outings overall. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the veteran finish the season on a high note. That should also be true of Brady Tkachuk, who has provided four goals and five points over his past four contests.

The goaltending clearly needs work, but with players like Giroux and Tkachuk leading the forward corps, at least that aspect of the Senators is strong.

Philadelphia Flyers – TUE @ NYR, THU @ MTL, SAT VS CHI

The Flyers are set to play on the road against the Rangers on Tuesday and the Canadiens on Thursday before hosting the Blackhawks on Saturday. While the Rangers are a tough adversary, Philadelphia has a golden chance to collect four points against Montreal and Chicago as it looks to secure its playoff spot.

The biggest story in Philadelphia is coach John Tortorella scratching Sean Couturier for the Flyers’ 4-3 win over Toronto on Tuesday and 3-2 overtime loss to Carolina on Thursday. This comes after a stretch in which Couturier registered just three assists and had a minus-13 rating over 14 games from Feb. 15-March 19. He also has only six points (one goal) in his last 23 contests, undoing his solid start to the campaign -- 30 points (10 markers) through his first 41 appearances.

Maybe this time off will allow him to reset and come back stronger. He’ll certainly be a player to watch closely next week because when Couturier’s at his best, he’s a strong top-line option.

In the meantime, Owen Tippett has been leading the Flyers’ attack. He has three goals and eight points over his past five games, bringing him up to 25 goals and 46 points through 66 outings this year. The 25-year-old is just two goals and three points shy of his career highs.

Morgan Frost is also on a five-game scoring streak, totaling three goals and seven points in that span. He hasn’t had an amazing campaign overall (12 goals and 38 points in 59 games), but the 24-year-old has been centering the top line and serving on the first power-play unit during Couturier’s absence. Given how well he’s done in that role, Frost might continue to feature prominently even after Couturier slides back into the lineup.

Pittsburgh Penguins – TUE VS CAR, THU VS CBJ, SAT @ CBJ

The Penguins have faded out of the playoff picture at this point and things aren’t going to get any easier when they host the Hurricanes on Tuesday. The silver lining is Pittsburgh does have a home-and-away series against the lowly Blue Jackets, which will take place Thursday and Saturday, respectively.

Michael Bunting, who Pittsburgh acquired from Carolina in the Jake Guentzel trade, seems to be settling in with his new team. He’s on a three-game scoring streak and has recorded a point in four of his last five contests, totaling two goals and two assists in that span. He’s seeing time on the top power-play unit and alongside Evgeni Malkin at even strength, so Bunting seems set to have a solid finish to the campaign.

Bryan Rust is looking to finish on a high note too. He’s been limited to 48 games this season due to injury, but he has been effective when healthy with 21 goals and 41 points. The 31-year-old has done particularly well recently, providing three goals and five points across his last four contests.

Lastly, while it doesn’t have fantasy relevance, you might want to pay attention to Jeff Carter. The 39-year-old is dealing with an upper-body issue, but when he returns, he’ll likely be playing out the last games of his career. While it’s possible he’ll pursue a new contract once his present one expires this summer, he likely won’t find any takers. He’s been held to nine goals and 12 points in 61 outings this campaign. Still, Carter has had a storied career, scoring 440 goals in 1,310 career games and playing a significant role in Los Angeles’ Stanley Cup victories in 2012 and 2014.

Seattle Kraken – TUE VS ANA, THU VS ANA, SAT VS DAL

Seattle will start the week with a pair of favorable home matchups against the lowly Ducks on Tuesday and Thursday. After that two-game series, the Kraken will host the Stars on Saturday.

Vince Dunn hasn’t played since March 4 due to an upper-body injury, and he doesn’t appear to be close to returning. He’s been a key offensive defenseman for the Kraken this campaign, providing 11 goals and 45 points in 57 games. Due to Dunn’s absence, Brian Dumoulin has seen an uptick in even-strength minutes, while Ryker Evans was summoned from AHL Coachella Valley and has received a power-play role.

Evans has done decently during Dunn’s absence, recording three assists -- all with the man advantage -- in the last seven games. He’s also played with a physical edge, accumulating eight PIM and 16 hits in the same span. Once Dunn returns, Evans might lose his spot in the lineup, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him continue to make those kinds of contributions until Dunn’s back.

Seattle’s forward corps hasn’t done great this campaign and Seattle’s attack has been particularly lackluster recently, totaling just five goals in four games from March 14-21. Still, Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a rare bright spot with a goal and three points during that stretch. He also has five goals and eight points over his last 11 contests to put his cold spell from Jan. 30-Feb. 24 (one assist in eight outings) well behind him.

As poor as the Kraken’s offense has been, Anaheim has done even worse, ranking 30th offensively with just 2.49 goals per game. It wouldn’t be surprising to see goaltenders Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord split the two-game set against the Ducks, and both netminders would be a good play versus Anaheim.

Vegas Golden Knights – MON @ STL, TUE @ NAS, (BTB), THU @ WPG, SAT @ MIN

The Golden Knights are one of the few teams set to play four games next week, though they’ll be on the road for that stretch. They’ll play in St. Louis on Monday, Nashville on Tuesday, Winnipeg on Thursday and Minnesota on Saturday. It’s not the easiest schedule, but the Golden Knights’ hold on the second wild-card spot is loose, so they’ll need to find a way to win a good chunk of those contests.

Their pursuit of a playoff berth has been complicated by Adin Hill, who has struggled mightily with a 3.90 GAA and an .872 save percentage over his last seven games. By contrast, Logan Thompson has saved 41 of 43 shots (.953 save percentage) over his last two contests, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Vegas pivot to Thompson, at least in the short term. Earlier in the campaign, the Golden Knights might have been more open to riding out Hill’s cold spell in the hopes that he’d rebound, but they don’t really have that luxury at this stage.

In terms of offense, it’s been defenseman Shea Theodore who has led the charge. The 28-year-old has collected 15 assists in 14 outings since returning from an upper-body injury. That’s propelled him to four goals and 33 points across 34 outings in 2023-24. Theodore has missed significant portions of the last two campaigns due to injury, but he would likely breach the 50-point milestone for the second time in his career if he manages to stay healthy next season.

Meanwhile, blueliner Noah Hanifin seems to be settling in fine with Vegas. He has four assists, a plus-3 rating, 10 blocks and 10 hits in seven contests since being acquired from the Flames. Hanifin’s also averaging 22:09 of ice time with Vegas, though he’s only on the second power-play unit, which limits his offensive potential a bit.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Quinton Byfield is making his presence felt, a surprising source of offense for the Maple Leafs, Columbus’ All-Star is scoring, and much, much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 23 Feb 2024 16:42:21 +0000

PITTSBURGH, PA - JANUARY 30: Los Angeles Kings Center Quinton Byfield (55) looks on during the second period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Los Angeles Kings on January 30, 2022, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Quinton Byfield is making his presence felt, a surprising source of offense for the Maple Leafs, Columbus’ All-Star is scoring, and much, much more!

#1 Drafted second overall by the Los Angeles Kings in 2020, Quinton Byfield took some time to get up to speed in the National Hockey League. Coming into this season, he had 8 goals and 33 points in 99 games, so he was not exactly busting down the door to stardom. He did start to show potential last season, though, and the Kings gave him a lot of ice time on the top line to start this season, skating on a line with Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar. More recently, Byfield has moved down the depth chart to join Pierre-Luc Dubois and Byfield continues to produce. In his past 10 games, Byfield has tallied 12 points (6 G, 6 A) with 25 shots on goal.

#2 Throwing Byfield with Pierre-Luc Dubois offers a chance for Dubois to shake out of his season-long slump. Since the Kings replaced Todd McLellan with Jim Hiller as head coach, Dubois has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in seven games. That improved production comes on the heels of Dubois managing just one point (1 G, 0 A) in the previous eight games.

#3 A 27-year-old winger who had played all of 10 games in the NHL prior to this season, Bobby McMann has become an unlikely contributor for the Toronto Maple Leafs. In his first 26 games for the Maple Leafs this season, McMann had just seven points (2 G, 5 A) but it was understandable, he played less than 10 minutes in 18 of those 26 games. McMann broke through on February 13, recording a hat trick in a 4-1 win against St. Louis and that earned him a bump up the depth chart. He has most recently found himself on a line with John Tavares and Nick Robertson and has 10 points (7 G, 3 A) and 17 shots on goal in the past six games. Suddenly, McMann is changing the perception of what he might be able to offer as an NHL player, from fringe NHLer to possible top-six winger.

#4 Getting Connor Bedard back in the lineup has helped Chicago Blackhawks forward Philipp Kurashev who has eight points (1 G, 7 A) in seven games since the All-Star break, which includes four points (1 G, 3 A) in four games since Bedard returned from his broken jaw. Prior to the break, Kurashev had just two points (1 G, 1 A) during a 14-game stretch, and yet he is still second on the Blackhawks in scoring with 32 points (9 G, 23 A) in 50 games.

#5 Columbus’ All-Star representative this season, centre Boone Jenner has emerged from the break on a five-game point streak, during which he has accrued eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 22 shots on goal. Jenner juices up his fantasy appeal with physical play, too, and has 17 hits in those five games. He is skating between Johnny Gaudreau and Jack Roslovic, both of whom are also picking up the pace offensively. Gaudreau is in full set-up mode lately, with 15 points (1 G, 14 A) and 33 shots on goal in his past 13 games. Roslovic has upped his production more recently, with five points (1 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal during a four-game point streak which started when he joined Jenner and Gaudreau on Columbus’ top line.

#6 Winnipeg Jets right winger Gabriel Vilardi got off to a strong start with his new club, contributing 20 points (11 G, 9 A) in 25 games, but he did miss some time due to injury and went through a six-game scoreless drought around the All-Star break. He’s making up for it, though, with eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 12 shots on goal during a three-game point streak. Vilardi is skating on the Jets’ top line with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, which is a pretty great opportunity for a young player looking to become a more consistent scoring threat.

#7 Although he was held off the scoresheet in Thursday’s 1-0 win against Florida, it was only the third time in the past 16 games that Carolina Hurricanes right winger Seth Jarvis did not record a point. He has 18 points (4 G, 14 A) and 34 shots on goal in that span, giving him a career-high 46 points in 56 games. Jarvis isn’t the only Hurricanes winger who has picked up his scoring pace. Martin Necas has 15 points (8 G, 7 A) and 50 shots on goal in his past 14 games.

#8 The third pick in the 2021 Draft, Anaheim Ducks centre Mason McTavish has had some ups and downs in his second NHL season, but his talent is undeniable, and he does have seven points in his past four games. While fantasy managers, especially those in banger leagues, might love that McTavish has 30 penalty minutes in his past 10 games, those frequent trips to the penalty box could start to cost him ice time.

#9 Florida Panthers centre Anton Lundell tallied 44 points as a rookie in 2021-2022 and has not been able to match that pace since, in part because his shooting percentage has fallen off, from 14.4 percent two seasons ago to 7.2 percent this season. Nevertheless, Lundell has shown some signs of life offensively, producing six points (4 G, 2 A) and nine shots on goal in his past five games. The Panthers have been excellent this season, and they have not received a huge contribution from Lundell, so if he can pick up the pace down the stretch, that would go a long way for a team that is a Stanley Cup contender.

#10 Minnesota Wild rookie centre Marco Rossi has moved into a tie with teammate Brock Faber as the second leading rookie scorer in the league behind Chicago’s Connor Bedard, who has 39 points (17 G, 22 A) in 43 games. Rossi has five points (4 G, 1 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past five games, which gets him to 33 points (17 G, 16 A) in 56 games. Rossi’s ice time is down, so tread carefully about adding him now. His improved scoring pace does offer hope that Rossi will have a bigger role both in the near and more distant future.

#11 New York Rangers right winger Kaapo Kakko missed nearly two months of action but is starting to get back into the groove. In his past six games, the 23-year-old forward has put up five points (2 G, 3 A) along with 12 shots on goal. It may be too soon to offer a full-throated recommendation for Kakko, but it’s worth keeping an eye on him. Progress has been gradual, and he is already in his fifth NHL season, but he has flashed potential.

#12 Consistent offensive production does not come easily for Buffalo Sabres winger Jordan Greenway, who scored a career high 32 points (9 G, 23 A) in 56 games for the Minnesota Wild during the 2020-2021 season. However, every now and then, he heats up and suddenly becomes an intriguing fantasy option, even if it is for short-term purposes. Over the past month, Greenway has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal in 10 games. Injuries have opened the door for Greenway to get more ice time in Buffalo and he has landed on the second line, alongside Casey Mittelstadt and Dylan Cozens, two skilled players who can help extend Greenway’s offensive good fortune.

#13 At this stage of his career, 38-year-old Corey Perry tends to not offer a lot of fantasy value during the regular season. He plays on the lower half of the depth chart and while he contributes some, it is usually only enough for consideration in the deepest of leagues. While all of that may be true, Perry does have four points (3 G, 1 A) with eight shots on goal and 16 penalty minutes in the past four games and that might warrant a little bit more attention. He is getting second unit power play time and is skating with Dylan Holloway and Mattias Janmark at evens.

#14 Goaltending has been a question mark for many teams this season and those questions have lingered in Carolina for much of the season. The answer may be found within the Hurricanes’ own dressing room, as Pyotr Kochetkov has hit a hot streak and that might be enough to solidify the play in Carolina’s crease, at least for the time being. After a sparkling 44-save shutout Thursday against Florida, Kochetkov has a .969 save percentage across his past four starts. Of course, in his previous four appearances, Kochetkov’s save percentage was a ghastly .851, so he has been offering quite the thrill ride with plenty of ups and downs.

#15 One of the primary challenges when seeking fantasy hockey answers in goal is finding goaltenders that play enough. St. Louis Blues backup goaltender Joel Hofer, for example, has been excellent lately with a .928 save percentage across his past nine starts, but that goes back to before Christmas, so Hofer still offers value in deeper leagues. If something were to happen that would give him a greater share of the starts in St. Louis, the 23-year-old could see his value soar.

#16 After lighting up the Vancouver Canucks for four points (1 G, 3 A) in Thursday’s victory, Seattle Kraken centre Jared McCann has a six-game point streak and has put up 22 points (11 G, 11 A) with 44 shots on goal in his past 15 games. McCann is coming off a career-best season in which he scored 40 goals and 70 points, but his recent production is getting him back into that stratosphere again.

#17 In his past seven games, Colorado Avalanche defenceman Cale Makar has zero points. This stretch is the first time – in his career! – that he has gone more than three consecutive games without recording a point. It’s not like this is no reason to trade Makar. He has 20 shots on goal in those seven games and has 60 points (13 G, 47 A) in 53 games this season, but an unprecedented slump from the most prolific scoring defenceman in the league at least bears watching.

#18 Since the All-Star break, the leaders in all situations expected goals: Nico Hischier (5.57), Nathan MacKinnon (5.54), Auston Matthews (5.21), Chris Kreider (4.91), J.T. Miller (4.88), Kirill Kaprizov (4.66), Zach Hyman (4.55), Jack Hughes (4.45), Brady Tkachuk (4.37), Joel Eriksson Ek (4.32), Boone Jenner (4.25), Kyle Palmieri (4.25), Evander Kane (4.23), Nazem Kadri (4.22), and Cole Caufield (4.18). While these are a lot of expected names, it’s interesting to see Hischier at the top of the list, and players like Jenner, Palmieri, and Kane are likely higher than their overall production might suggest.

#19 There are 36 players that have recorded at least seven power-play points since January 1. That list includes Juraj Slafkovsky (9), Jonathan Huberdeau (7), Frank Vatrano (7), Morgan Frost (7), and Jake Neighbours (7). Again, a lot of the names at the top of the list are to be expected – Matthew Tkachuk leads with 14 five-on-four points in 2024 – but some less established players are starting to make a difference with the man advantage, too.

#20 With Mark Stone injured, joining Jack Eichel on the shelf, the Vegas Golden Knights are getting rather thin up front, so maybe consider Michael Amadio as a short-term fix. The 27-year-old forward has scored a goal in four of the past five games, putting a dozen shots on goal while averaging more than 16 minutes of ice time per game. Amadio finished with a career-high 27 points (16 G, 11 A) in 67 games last season and has 21 points (11 G, 10 A) in 50 games this season, so he is not necessarily a long-term answer but, right now, he has an opportunity to play a more significant role.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 Fantasy Points – Stephenson, Faber, Tippett, Lyon, Luukkonen, Daws and much, much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 19 Jan 2024 17:08:47 +0000

PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 05: Philadelphia Flyers Right Wing Owen Tippett (74) skates with the puck during the third period of the National Hockey League game between the New York Islanders and the Philadelphia Flyers on October 5, 2023, at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia PA. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, injuries are creating opportunities for Chandler Stephenson and Brock Faber, Owen Tippett is firing pucks, the season of unpredictable goaltending has turned attention to Alex Lyon, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Nico Daws, and much, much more!

#1 With both Jack Eichel and William Karlsson injured and out of the Las Vegas lineup, there is more opportunity available down the middle of the ice. Chandler Stephenson is the prime beneficiary, skating on the top line and first power play unit. Stephenson has four points (1 G, 3 A) in three games since Eichel is out week-to-week following lower-body surgery, which does give Stephenson more value. Nicolas Roy has also moved up the depth chart and has recorded three assists in the past three games, averaging more than 18 minutes of ice time per game.

#2 Minnesota Wild rookie defenceman Brock Faber has enjoyed a fantastic first season and is going to have more heavy lifting to do on the Wild blueline. Captain and standout defender Jared Spurgeon is out for the rest of the season following hip and back surgeries. That leaves even more responsibility for Faber, who has 10 points (1 G, 9 A) and 35 shots on goal while averaging more than 25 minutes of ice time per game in 16 games over the past month.

#3 Philadelphia Flyers winger Owen Tippett scored a pair of goals in Thursday’s 5-1 win against the Dallas Stars, the fifth straight win for a surging Flyers squad. Tippett now has six goals and 31 shots on goal in his past six games and since the calendar turned to 2024, Tippett leads the NHL with 15.42 shots on goal per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. He has been skating on the Flyers’ top line with Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny and is getting first-unit power play time. With this kind of production, Tippett should remain in this prime spot in the Philadelphia lineup.

#4 During a season in which goaltending has been a consistent point of concern, it makes complete sense that one of the best goaltenders in the NHL this season has been Alex Lyon, a 31-year-old who had started 31 games in his career prior to this season. Lyon has started 15 games for the Red Wings this season and has a .923 save percentage. He saved the Florida Panthers’ season last year and Lyon is doing something similar for the Red Wings this season.

#5 At the start of the season, the Buffalo Sabres were giving rookie netminder Devon Levi every opportunity to run with the starting goaltender job. Levi has a .889 save percentage in 19 games and has lost the starting job to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, the 24-year-old who has recorded back-to-back shutouts and has a .956 save percentage in his past six starts. It’s not as though Luukkonen has established long-term trustworthiness, but if you’re looking for goaltending at this point in the season, you probably have to take some risks.

#6 New Jersey’s goaltending has been such a disaster that they demoted Akira Schmid to the AHL and recalled Nico Daws. While the 23-year-old netminder has a 3-3 record in six starts for the Devils, Daws also has a .916 save percentage which is a massive upgrade over the work of Schmid and Vitek Vanecek this season.

#7 With Winnipeg Jets centre Mark Scheifele banged up, Adam Lowry has moved up the depth chart to play on the first line between Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi. Lowry has six points (1 G, 5 A) and 11 shots on goal in his past five games, the last two of which have been without Scheifele. Lowry tallied a career-high 36 points (13 G, 23 A) last season and with 23 points (8 G, 15 A) in 43 games this season, he is on pace to surpass that total.

#8 Los Angeles Kings centre Philip Danault was held without a point in Thursday’s 2-1 loss to Nashville, snapping a six-game point streak during which he had recorded eight points (2 G, 6 A). Danault is skating between Trevor Moore and Kevin Fiala, which is an upgrade in his typical offensive situation. Danault and Moore have played together a lot and Moore is enjoying the best season of his career, but Fiala is a proven point producer who has 110 points (33 G, 77 A) in 111 games with the Kings.

#9 Florida Panthers centre Sam Bennett is starting to heat up, perhaps not surprisingly as his right winger, Matthew Tkachuk, has emerged from his relatively slow start to the season. Since December 30, Bennett has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 24 shots on goal in nine games. Playing with Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe is a prime spot for Bennett to be a productive force, at least when he is healthy.

#10 Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin has entered the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, a potentially crushing blow for the Avalanche. Nichushkin was averaging 21:49 of ice time per game, which ranks fourth among forwards behind Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, and Nikita Kucherov. In his last month of action, Nichushkin played 15 games and put up 21 points (12 G, 9 A) with 58 shots on goal. His absence is going to leave a giant hole in the Avalanche lineup. Hard working Avs right winger Logan O’Connor is doing his part to increase his offensive output and has contributed eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past nine games.

#11 Detroit Red Wings right winger Patrick Kane suffered a lower-body injury and will be out of the lineup. The Red Wings insist that it is not a hip injury, which would obviously raise concerns after he had his surgery in the offseason. After a bit of a slow start with Detroit, Kane has 14 points (6 G, 8 A) and 43 shots on goal in his past 13 games. If you’re looking for a veteran Red Wings winger, consider David Perron, who has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 16 shots on goal in his past eight games.

#12 Ottawa Senators rookie centre Ridly Greig is picking up the scoring pace, making the most of the opportunity afforded to him by Josh Norris’ injury, producing six points (2 G, 4 A) with 12 shots on goal in his past five games. Greig has been bumped up the depth chart to skate between Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux on the Senators’ top line and while it might be ambitious to expect Greig to handle that responsibility already, he is probably the best option for now. Remember, suspended centre Shane Pinto is eligible to return to Ottawa’s lineup this weekend and that will give Ottawa more choices down the middle of the ice.

#13 Anaheim Ducks rookie defenceman Pavel Mintyukov is out with a separated shoulder and it has created an opportunity for another Ducks rookie blueliner. Jackson LaCombe is getting a taste of first unit power play action for Anaheim and has three assists in his past five games after recording four assists in the previous 35 games. It’s too soon to start recommending LaCombe but, for dynasty leagues, this does offer a chance to LaCombe to prove that he can contribute more offensively, so that bears watching. Mintyukov has had a stellar start to his career, with 19 points (2 G, 17 A), including seven on the power play, in 40 games. In a Ducks organization that is well stocked with young defencemen, Mintyukov may be the prize of the bunch.

#14 In his first 18 games this season, Pittsburgh Penguins winger Rickard Rakell managed zero goals and four assists, a ridiculously low level of production for a skilled player who has endured some lengthy slumps in his career. He has snapped out of it, though, and now has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) and 33 shots on goal in his past 12 games. He is playing with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel, which is a good place for ensuring future production.

#15 One of the biggest surprises in the NHL this season has been the performance of Calgary Flames winger Blake Coleman, who has 38 points (20 G, 18 A), tying his career high in points that he established last season. He is scoring on 18.9 percent of his shots, after never scoring on even 12 percent in any of his previous seasons, but the 32-year-old is offering fantasy value when he is producing at this level.

#16 Looking at forwards who might be due for some better shooting luck for the rest of the season, Alex Ovechkin might be the leading candidate. The Capitals superstar has two goals on 81 shots during five-on-five play and while everyone is aware of Ovi’s office on the power play, it is stunning that he has just two five-on-five goals more than halfway through a season. While in recent seasons it has seemed inevitable that Ovechkin would catch Wayne Gretzky for the all-time goal-scoring record, the 38-year-old sniper will have to recover his even-strength production to have a chance. For fantasy managers, Ovechkin does represent a potential buy-low opportunity because. His productivity is so far below his reputation, but if his shooting percentage bounces back, he still gets enough shots to make an impact, even if his 3.55 shots on goal per game is a career-low rate for him.

#17 Along the same reasoning, consider Columbus’ Johnny Gaudreau as a possible buy-low value play. Gaudreau has 28 points (7 G, 21 A) in 44 games and, during five-on-five play, has scored three goals on 65 shots. That is an unsustainable rate, but it is made even worse by the fact that Gaudreau is averaging 2.05 shots on goal per game. He has picked up three assists with nine shots on goal in his past two games, so that could be the start of something more promising. Gaudreau has never had less than 0.80 points per game in a full season and is sitting at 0.64 points per game now.

#18 When it comes to players that could be due for some improved fortune around assists, check out some of the players with lower on-ice shooting percentages during five-on-five play. Some are fourth-line players who play with other fourth-line players and those low on-ice percentages are consistent from year to year. A skilled forward with a low on-ice shooting percentage has more reasonable expectations for regression to work in their favour. Ducks rookie centre Leo Carlsson has an on-ice shooting percentage of 4.6 percent, which should be due for improvement as he continues to get more comfortable in the league. Injured Ducks centre Trevor Zegras has a 5.3 percent on-ice shooting percentage. Capitals right winger Tom Wilson is at 5.2 percent, Seattle’s Matty Beniers is at 5.6 percent, and New Jersey’s Timo Meier is at 6.6 percent. Meier has three even strength assists in 29 games, which is obviously too low to be a sustainable rate.

#19 Looking at the other end of the spectrum feeling like raining on someone’s parade, announcing the unsustainability of their current level of production. Senators rookie Ridly Greig, who has been bumped up the depth chart, also has a five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of 15.7 percent. That can’t last. Vancouver’s success this season has been driven in part by high percentages, as Elias Pettersson (15.3), J.T. Miller (15.0), and Brock Boeser (14.2) have percentages among the highest in the league. Matt Duchene (13.5), Gabriel Vilardi (13.3), and Casey Mittelstadt (12.8) are among the forwards that have had their production elevated by favourable on-ice percentages and are probably due for some regression.

#20 The leaders in five-on-five individual expected goal per 60 minutes this month have been: Yanni Gourde (1.61), Jake Guentzel (1.48), Lawson Crouse (1.48), Gabriel Vilardi (1.46), Evander Kane (1.45), and Ridly Greig (1.41), so those are players who are at least generating high quality chances. Whether they can continue to do that over the long term will affect their true value for the rest of the season. At the other end, Ryan Johansen (0.15) is not getting chances in January. Mika Zibanejad (0.26), Mats Zuccarello (0.29), Evgeny Kuznetsov (0.31), Jonathan Huberdeau (0.31), and Adrian Kempe (0.34) are among the more notable forwards that are not generating scoring chances at five-on-five.

FANTASY: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Farabee stepping up for Flyers – Injuries open door to opportunity – Goalies bouncing back – Early-season underachievers that might offer potential buy-low value + much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 17 Nov 2023 19:43:45 +0000

ANAHEIM, CA - NOVEMBER 10: Philadelphia Flyers left wing Joel Farabee (86) with the puck during an NHL hockey game against the Anaheim Ducks played on November 10, 2023 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Joel Farabee is stepping up for the Flyers, injuries open the door for opportunities, goalies bouncing back, and early-season underachievers that might offer potential buy-low value.

#1 Although Philadelphia Flyers winger Joel Farabee hit a career high with 39 points (15 G, 24 A) last season, it was widely regarded as a disappointing campaign. He was recovering from disc replacement surgery in his neck and both his shot rate and shooting percentage declined. This season, however, Farabee is a vital part of the Flyers’ ability to exceed expectations. He has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in 16 games and all 12 points have come during five-on-five play; his 3.52 points per 60 ranks ninth in the league and while his lack of power play production does put a ceiling on Farabee’s potential production, he has already taken steps forward from last season.

#2 Buffalo Sabres star centre Tage Thompson has been lost for “less than a couple of months” with a wrist injury. His absence will require Dylan Cozens and Casey Mittelstadt to anchor the top two centre spots on the Sabres depth chart. Cozens has one assist in his past six games and is averaging less ice time per game than he did last season, so this will provide ample opportunity for him to get back on track. Mittelstadt has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 16 games, though with just 21 shots, he does have room to increase his offensive impact.

#3 The Anaheim Ducks placed centre Trevor Zegras on the injured list with a groin injury and he had just two points (1 G, 1 A) in 12 games when they decided that he needed a break. That theoretically could open the door for more ice time for rookie centre Leo Carlsson, who has eight points (6 G, 2 A) in 11 games, but he’s already averaging 18:18 of ice time per game when he plays, so it is difficult to expect and 18-year-old to get much more ice time. Maybe it’s more reasonable to expect Mason McTavish to take on a little more, as the 20-year-old has 16 points (7 G, 9 A) in 16 games while logging 17:32 of ice time per game.

#4 A neck injury has put Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen on the shelf, creating an opportunity for Valeri Nichushkin to skate with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen on Colorado’s top line. MacKinnon has been Nichushkin’s most common linemate this season already, but adding Rantanen does spice things up a bit. Nichushkin has produced five points (4 G, 1 A) and 18 shots on goal in the past five games.

#5 Florida Panthers defencemen Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad are both nearing returns to action, on the precipice of making their seasons debuts for last season’s Stanley Cup finalists. The most intriguing effect will likely fall on Oliver Ekman-Larsson, the 32-year-old defender whose play has been in decline for several seasons. Given a new lease on life in Florida, he has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) in 16 games, but half of those points have come on the power play and Montour’s return could take away Ekman-Larsson’s top unit power play role.

#6 An upper-body injury has landed Nashville Predators centre Tommy Novak on injured reserve for the next four-to-six weeks. With 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in 14 games, he is ranked third in scoring on the Predators and half of those points have come on the power play. Cody Glass gets first crack at Novak’s ice time, but he had better pick up the pace as he has yet to record a point in seven games this season.

#7 New Jersey Devils centre Jack Hughes appears to be on the verge of returning from his upper-body injury. The Devils’ playmaking centre has 20 points (5 G, 15 A) in 10 games, outrageous production and, given the landscape among the league’s top scorers, Hughes has a legitimate case to at least be in the race for the Art Ross Trophy. Michael McLeod, who has three points (1 G, 2 A) in the past five games, is likely to slide back down the depth chart when Hughes is ready to return.

#8 It seems that nearly every week there is some example of how unpredictable goaltending can be from one season to the next, never mind smaller samples like one week to the next or one game to the next. Consider the case of St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington, who had a .897 save percentage in 98 games over the previous two seasons. This season, his save percentage is up to XXXX and, at least before the Blues were blown out by the San Jose Sharks Thursday night (in a game started by Joel Hofer), goaltending had been helping the Blues get back to a more competitive level.

#9 Anaheim Ducks netminder John Gibson was an elite performer early in his career, posting a .921 save percentage from 2013-2014 through 2018-2019, but then the burden of playing behind a suspect Ducks defence started to catch up to him and from 2019-2020 through 2022-2023, his save percentage had fallen to .902. This season, however, Gibson has a .927 save percentage in nine starts. With the Ducks more competitive than expected, Gibson is once again a valuable commodity for fantasy managers.

#10 In the previous two seasons, with the Maple Leafs and Blackhawks, Petr Mrazek had a .893 save percentage. In eight games this season, he is rocking a .921 save percentage. The wins don’t come easily in the Windy City, but if Mrazek is going to play at this above-average level, he is going to be fantasy relevant, which was not a widely held expectation for him at the start of the season.

#11 Edmonton Oilers left winger Evander Kane erupted for a hat trick in Wednesday’s 4-3 overtime win against Seattle. Following a slow start, Kane has produced 14 points (7 G, 7 A) and 34 shots on goal in the past 10 games, which puts him up among the top wingers because when the scoring is there, he also generates shots and provides a physical presence (56 hits in 15 games).

#12 Matt Duchene did not record a point in his first four games for the Dallas Stars, which saw him get waived in many fantasy hockey leagues, but the trend has reversed in a hurry. In 10 games since, Duchene has produced 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 25 shots on goal, thriving on a line with Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment.

#13 Part of Winnipeg’s return in the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade, Alex Iafallo has been a quality supporting winger for the Jets. He could stand to shoot the puck more, but Iafallo has nine points (1 G, 8 A) in his past six games, and he is riding shotgun with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele on the Jets’ top line as well as holding down a spot on Winnipeg’s top power play unit.

#14 After a brilliant performance at the World Championships, 21-year-old Buffalo Sabres winger J.J. Peterka entered this season with some expectations. He started slowly, but has now delivered nine points (4 G, 5 A) in the past nine games, a sign that he could be ready to make a leap in only his second NHL campaign.

#15 A couple of early AHL call-ups have made an instant impact in the NHL. Calgary’s Connor Zary, a first-round pick in 2020, has six points (3 G, 3 A) in seven games, though he has just one shot on goal in the past three, leaving him with 11 shots on goal in those seven games. That needs to bounce back up for his production to have a higher likelihood of sustainability. Zary and fellow rookie Martin Pospisil have been flanking Nazem Kadri on the Flames’ second line. Toronto’s Nick Robertson is no longer Calder Trophy eligible after various stints with the Maple Leafs in the past three seasons, but the 22-year-old does have four points (2 G, 2 A) in four games since getting promoted from the AHL, where he had 11 points (5 G, 6 A) in nine games. Robertson is skating with Max Domi and Calle Jarnkrok in a third line that suddenly has some offensive pop to it.

#16 The leader in expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 50 minutes of ice time) during the month of November is Bruins left winger Brad Marchand (2.09), ahead of Alex Tuch (2.06), Timo Meier (2.04), Connor McMichael (2.02), and Kevin Fiala (2.00). McMichael stands out of that group as he is not nearly as established as an offensive force. With Nicklas Backstrom stepping away from the Capitals, McMichael is looking at a bigger role and has four points (2 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal in the past four games and could be a buy-low option in deep leagues. At the other end of the spectrum, there are some forwards who have not been generating chances and it is no surprise if fourth liners have a low rate of expected goals, but Alex Newhook (0.19), Kaapo Kakko (0.21), Matthew Poitras (0.33), and Pavel Zacha (0.36) – all of whom have some expectation of offensive production - are among the forwards in the bottom 20 when it comes to individual expected goals in November.

#17 Looking specifically at five-on-four power play situations, which players are being put in position to score with the man advantage? The leader in individual expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 40 five-on-four minutes this season) is Florida’s Sam Reinhart (4.05), ahead of Joe Pavelski (3.67), Sidney Crosby (3.53), Drake Batherson (3.35), Vincent Trocheck (3.31), and Tommy Novak (3.28).

#18 While there are some players scoring on a ridiculously high percentage of shots, that likely won’t be sustainable – looking at you, Alexis Lafreniere (29.2%) and Brock Boeser (27.1%) – there are players at the other end who are generating shots on goal and not finding the net. Pittsburgh’s Rickard Rakell has zero goals on 40 shots. He has had some seasons in which his shooting percentages are terrible, but zero for forty is a real struggle, especially for a player who is skating on a line with Reilly Smith and Evgeni Malkin, two skilled linemates. Others that might be buy-low considerations with zero goals: Josh Anderson (38 shots) and T.J. Oshie (28 shots).

#19 Spinning this to the players that have underachieved the most relative to their expected goals thus far, Oshie (-5.54) and Anderson (-5.31) have fallen shortest of their expected goals totals, followed by Matthew Tkachuk (-5.00), Anders Lee (-4.64), and Rakell (-4.31). These guys are getting chances but can’t finish. On the other hand, the players exceeding their expected goals by the widest margin thus far are: Kyle Connor (6.29), Alex DeBrincat (6.07), Frank Vatrano (5.96), Teuvo Teravainen (5.48), and Chris Kreider (5.08). These are players off to great starts, but sustainability could be a challenge.

#20 One of the bigger tests of any buy-low theory is Columbus Blue Jackets left winger Johnny Gaudreau. He and Patrick Laine were benched in Thursday’s 3-2 loss to Arizona, and Gaudreau has a paltry six points (1 G, 5 A) and 40 shots on goal through 17 games. Gaudreau’s shot rate is down to 2.35 per game and if he can’t make it work with a shooter like Laine, then the Blue Jackets need to make some changes because it makes no sense to invest so much in Gaudreau, only to let him wither on the vine with a line that isn’t working. Gaudreau and Laine have controlled the flow of play to some degree at five-on-five, with 57.3% Corsi, but they are pulling just 40.9% of expected goals and that isn’t going to cut it. It’s notable that Gaudreau has had more success with his most common linemate, Boone Jenner, with a 58.5% Corsi and 58.0% of expected goals. Somehow, some way, the Blue Jackets need to find the right fit for Gaudreau and fantasy managers can lurk and wait for the answer because Gaudreau’s value right now is about as low as it could get.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Rookies getting a long look at camp – Vasilevskiy goaltending shuffle? – Laine switching positions plus much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 06 Oct 2023 17:19:27 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - SEPTEMBER 25: Philadelphia Flyers Forward Tyson Foerster (71) skates with the puck during a preseason game between the Philadelphia Flyers and New Jersey Devils on September 25, 2023 at Prudential Center in the Newark, New Jersey.(Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Tyson Foerster, Matt Coronato, Matthew Poitras, and Zach Benson are among the rookies getting a long look at training camps. The Lightning are trying to survive Andrei Vasilevskiy’s injury, Patrik Laine’s shifting positions, and more.

#1 Drafted 23^rd by the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2020 Draft, Tyson Foerster has been steadily progressing and he tallied 48 points (20 G, 28 A) in 66 AHL games last season and added seven points (3 G, 4 A) in eight NHL games. The 21-year-old is getting a real chance to make the team this year. His most common linemate in the preseason has been Joel Farabee, followed by Morgan Frost and Sean Couturier. That might indicate that Foerster is not only going to make the Flyers, but he could get a look in a scoring role, which might give him the opportunity to be fantasy relevant.

#2 The past couple of seasons have been the most productive of Evan Rodrigues’ career and it looks like he will have a chance to continue producing with his move to Florida, where he is getting a chance to skate alongside Aleksander Barkov, both at even strength and on Florida’s top power play unit. Rodrigues has scored 35 goals and 82 points in 151 games over the past two seasons, playing for Colorado and Pittsburgh. Rodrigues has been a top shot generator, averaging 9.67 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five play in the past two seasons, which ranks 33^rd. He also has a shooting percentage in those two seasons of 8.2%, so he is just waiting for a bust-out season with improved percentages.

#3 There are few goaltenders in the league as indispensable as Tampa Bay Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has handled a heavy workload throughout his career, allowing the Lightning to invest little in their backup goaltender. However, now that Vasilevskiy is going to miss at least a couple of months to start the season due to a back injury and that leaves the Lightning with Jonas Johansson, Hugo Alnefelt, and Matt Tomkins between the pipes. Johansson has been a quality AHL goaltender – he had a .920 save percentage in 26 AHL games last season – but he has a .887 save percentage in 35 career NHL games, which hardly screams ready to handle a starter’s role for a couple of months. Alnefelt is a 22-year-old who had a .904 save percentage in 33 AHL games last season. Tomkins is a 29-year-old who had a .909 save percentage in 65 games in the Swedish Hockey League over the past two years. On top of all of that, the Lightning have precious little cap space, especially until they get Vasilevskiy on LTIR.

#4 Tampa Bay is not the only team with goaltending concerns. It’s just that the Lightning have the biggest concern. However, for teams that might need goaltending, there are enough teams with quality number three goaltenders that the waiver wire or trades could be a path to stabilizing the situation between the pipes. Buffalo’s Eric Comrie, Calgary’s Daniel Vladar, Detroit’s Alex Lyon, Florida’s Anthony Stolarz, Los Angeles’ David Rittich, Toronto’s Martin Jones, and Seattle’s Chris Driedger or Joey Daccord are among the goaltenders with NHL experience that could be available as the season approaches.

#5 The Anaheim Ducks lost veteran left winger Alex Killorn for 4-6 weeks with a broken finger and his absence likely helps someone like Frank Vatrano, who is going to have a better shot at playing in the Ducks’ top six and skating on the wing with someone like Mason McTavish at centre is a good opportunity. Vatrano has some deep league fantasy appeal as a two-time 20-goal scorer who ranks 30^th in shots per 60 minutes over the past two seasons.

#6 An interesting development with the Blue Jackets is that they have shifted Patrik Laine to centre, between Johnny Gaudreau and Kirill Marchenko. While Laine’s skill set does not scream elite centre, if he can handle the role, he has the size to be a monstrous presence in the middle and with a playmaker like Gaudreau on the wing, Laine will still be able to fulfill his typical role as finisher. Laine has six points (3 G, 3 A) in four preseason contests. This development could be most interesting for Marchenko, who is getting a chance to skate with Columbus’ most dangerous offensive players, and it probably knocks down the value of Boone Jenner, who would potentially lose that spot on the top line.

#7 Some other players producing in the preseason, with a focus on players that might be exceeding expectations: Calgary rookie Matt Coronato has seven points (4 G, 3 A) in five games, Columbus’ Emil Bemstrom has six points (3 G, 3 A) in four games, Florida’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson has five assists in two games, Detroit’s J.T. Compher has five points (1 G, 4 A) in three games, and St. Louis’ Jakub Vrana has five points (3 G, 2 A) in four games. Small samples, obviously, but take the preseason production as an encouraging sign.

#8 A couple more rookies that are producing in the preseason and might just be forcing their way into NHL jobs: Bruins C Matthew Poitras, who has five points (3 G, 2 A) in five games and could at least get a trial as Boston’s No. 2 centre as the Bruins try to fill the gaping holes left by the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. Buffalo’s Zach Benson, the 13^th pick in the 2023 Draft, has been getting quality looks in Sabres camp, playing on the top line with first unit power play time, and has five points (3 G, 2 A) in five preseason contests.

#9 When the New York Islanders acquired Pierre Engvall from the Toronto Maple Leafs at last season’s trade deadline, he was given a bigger role, playing an extra couple of minutes per game with the Islanders, and he contributed nine points (5 G, 4 A) in 18 games. It looks like Engvall could have a chance to stick in the Isles’ top six, as he is skating with Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri on the second line. Engvall has a career high of 35 points coming into the season and it looks like he will have a real shot to play a bigger role with the Islanders.

#10 Looking back at the past three seasons, the points per 60 minutes leaders tend to be expected names – Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Matthew Tkachuk – but there are always some surprises that deserve more notice. Carter Verhaeghe ranks 12^th among skaters that played at least 500 five-on-five minutes, with 2.62 points/60. Nikolaj Ehlers is 19^th at 2.57 points/60, Jakub Vrana is 21^st at 2.56 points/60, Michael Bunting 26^th at 2.49 points/60, and Andre Burakovsky 34^th with 2.43 points/60. That’s the second note in favour of Vrana.

#11 Turning the focus to goals per 60 minutes, the leaders are mostly as expected: Auston Matthews, Jakub Vrana, David Pastrnak, Max Pacioretty, Filip Forsberg, Jared McCann, Daniel Sprong, Carter Verhaeghe, Roope Hintz, and Cole Caufield, all coming in ahead of 11^th-ranked Alex Ovechkin. There are some players who have missed significant time in the past three seasons, including Vrana, Pacioretty, Forsberg, Sprong, and Caufield, but that is a third positive reference for Vrana.

#12 Andrew Mangiapane is not only getting a look with Jonathan Huberdeau and Elias Lindholm on Calgary’s top line, but he is getting first unit power play time, too. Mangiapane went from a career-high 35 goals in 2021-2022 to 17 goals last season with his shooting percentage crashing from 18.9% to 9.3%, so he is a prime candidate to rebound and especially if he is going to get a shot with top offensive performers.

#13 When winger Sammy Blais returned to St. Louis at the trade deadline last season, he was given a new opportunity. He saw his ice time jump nearly five minutes per game, from 9:38 with the Rangers to 14:36 with the Blues, and Blais contributed 20 points (9 G, 11 A) in 31 games. He scored on 23.1% of his shots and that is not sustainable, but that increased role and productivity put Blais on the radar for fantasy managers because he also had 119 hits in 31 games. He is an injury risk as last season’s 71 games was the first time that he had played more than 40 games in an NHL season, but if opportunity knocks in St. Louis this year, Blais is going to be in position to chip in and offer fantasy appeal, at least in deep or banger leagues.

#14 An efficient depth player for much of his career, Ryan Donato is the latest to get a look on Chicago’s top line, skating alongside Taylor Hall and Connor Bedard. In the past two seasons, Donato has scored 29 goals at even strength, the same number as Pierre-Luc Dubois, and more than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evgeni Malkin, among others. With 1.08 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play in the past two seasons, Donato ranks 46^th among skaters to play at least 1,000 five-on-five minutes. He may not last alongside Bedard and Hall but might be worth a late-round flier in a deep league just in case he sticks there and continues to score, only with more ice time, in Chicago.

#15 The second pick in the 2020 Draft, Quinton Byfield has been making slow progress, but has loads of potential and has an opportunity to break through as he skates on the Kings’ top line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. Byfield had 22 points in 53 games last season, managing just three goals, but he did have some flashes. He had nine points (1 G, 8 A) during a 10-game stretch in the second half of the season and contributed four points (1 G, 3 A) in six playoff games against Edmonton. It would help if he could increase his shot rate, but it is also too soon to be giving up on a 21-year-old who is 6-foot-5 and can skate like Byfield, so this could be a pivotal season for his development.

#16 Sticking with the 2020 Draft, top pick Alexis Lafreniere has not fulfilled his potential yet, either and it leads to complicated discussions. In three NHL seasons, Lafreniere has produced 44 even strength goals, which ranks 81^st in the league. It’s the same number as Anze Kopitar and one more than Mika Zibanejad, which would seem like pretty good company, but Lafreniere has a total of six power play points in 216 games and that leaves him with uninspiring point totals. With a new coach, Peter Laviolette, behind the bench for the Blueshirts, it looks like Lafreniere should have a chance to play in the top six, but it also looks like he is not getting power play time, and that is going to put a limit on his fantasy appeal.

#17 Nashville’s top power play unit is interesting. Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi are obvious veteran anchors for the unit, but Tommy Novak and Luke Evangelista are getting regular spots and then there is a spot for either Ryan O’Reilly or Cody Glass. If the Predators are trying to rebuild on the fly, giving young players like Novak, Evangelista, and Glass a real chance in prominent roles is a way to find out if they are going to be able to remain competitive through the process. For fantasy managers, that does elevate the appeal of those less proven Preds.

#18 With Vasily Podkolzin getting cut and Ilya Mikheyev’s health in question in Vancouver, that makes it look like Nils Hoglander and Phil DiGiuseppe will have regular spots in the Canucks lineup. Hoglander does offer more upside, scoring 24 of his 26 career goals at even strength, but he managed just nine points (3 G, 6 A) in 25 games before getting demoted to the AHL last season. Hoglander had 27 points (13 G, 14 A) in 56 games as a rookie in 2020-2021 but was going in the wrong direction, so this might be the opportunity he needs to get back on track.

#19 Looking back to the 2022-2023 season, there were a few players who really surged after the All-Star break. Many are the top players in the league, but some might come as a surprise. Arizona’s Clayton Keller, for example, ranked fourth with 45 points (19 G, 26 A) in 32 games following the break. Dallas defenceman Miro Heiskanen had 33 points (4 G, 29 A) in 31 games, Nashville’s Tommy Novak had 32 points (13 G, 19 A) in 32 games, Buffalo’s Casey Mittelstadt produced 31 points (8 G, 23 A) in 33 games, and Washington’s Dylan Strome had 29 points (12 G, 17 A) in 29 games. He missed some time, but Columbus’ Patrik Laine had 21 points (8 G, 13 A) in 19 games to finish last season.

#20 Finally, with the season just around the corner, beware of the injury bug. Last week, I wrote about how John Klingberg was getting a chance on Toronto’s top power play unit, and he hasn’t played since, as he nurses an upper-body injury. Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston have both been out for the Dallas Stars and while they appear to be making progress, it seems possible that they might not be ready for opening night. Mattias Ekholm has been out of the Oilers lineup, leaving a gaping hole on the Edmonton blueline. Ottawa centre Josh Norris is working his way back from shoulder surgery, but with Shane Pinto still unsigned, that leaves the Sens suddenly thin down the middle, at least for the time being. Pittsburgh’s Jake Guentzel was not expected to be ready for the start of the season, following offseason ankle surgery, but has been practicing with the Penguins so he may be getting close. San Jose’s Logan Couture does not appear likely to be ready for the start of the season. That probably gives Mikael Granlund a bigger role for the Sharks. Neck spasms have been keeping Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers out of the lineup, a huge absence for Winnipeg, and Winnipeg is being careful so he may not be ready for the start of the season either.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:26:20 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - JANUARY 03: Columbus Blue Jackets Left Wing Johnny Gaudreau (13) before a face-off during second period National Hockey League action between the Columbus Blue Jackets and Ottawa Senators on January 3, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

Review: Columbus made a huge free agent splash in the summer of 2022 when they inked Johnny Gaudreau to a seven-year, $68.25 million contract and…then they got worse, dropping from a 37-38-7 record in 2021-22 to 25-48-9 last year. To be fair, that wasn’t Gaudreau’s fault. He did regress significantly from his 115-point showing in 2021-22 to 74 points, but he still served his role as the team’s offensive leader. There wasn’t much backing him though. Patrik Laine was the only other player to even hit the 50-point mark, and Columbus ranked 30th in goals per game with 2.60. The Blue Jackets also had the second-worst five-on-five expected goals against (213.18), which indicates that their defense was horrendous. Even still, goaltender Elvis Merzlikins shouldn’t escape blame for his 4.23 GAA and .876 save percentage in 30 contests, not that the alternatives in net other than Joonas Korpisalo (who was dealt to the Kings on March 1) were much better. In the end, it was a miserable season for Columbus.

What’s Changed? Not a change, but Zach Werenski is expected to be ready for training camp after missing almost the entire 2022-23 campaign because of a shoulder injury, so that will substantially bolster the blue line. He’ll be joined by defensemen Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson, who were acquired from Philadelphia and New Jersey, respectively. Columbus also selected center Adam Fantilli with the third overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, and he might make an immediate impact.

What would success look like? Making the playoffs is probably too much to hope for, but the Blue Jackets might be a bit of an underrated team. Their defense should be substantially better thanks to their summer additions and the anticipated return of Werenski. If they could get a solid rookie season out of Fantilli, who might get a serious look as the team’s second-line center, and some progression from sophomores Kent Johnson and Kirill Marchenko, then their offense will take a meaningful step forward too.

What could go wrong? Even if their defense improves, it won’t be enough if Merzlikins plays like he did last year. With Korpisalo gone, Daniil Tarasov is penciled in to be the backup, but his 4-11-1 record, 3.91 GAA and .892 save percentage in 17 contests with Columbus in 2022-23 did nothing to inspire confidence. The Blue Jackets might have the worst goaltending duo in the league this year. Combine that with the fact that their second line might cons

Forwards

Johnny Gaudreau – LW

Gaudreau’s first season with Columbus may not have led to a high impact in the league standings, but from a personal output perspective, Gaudreau’s offensive outputs eclipsed his peers on the team by significant totals. Most of his damage was done off of the rush, where he also led the Jackets in both controlled entries and shots off of those controlled entries. Gaudreau’s passing also helped to elevate his teammates as only Jakub Voracek had more high danger passes at even-strength last season. Gaudreau’s elite skating and hockey sense enabled him to consistently find time and space for himself throughout the course of the year. As Columbus continues their rebuild, finding top line talent that can provide a set-up element to Gaudreau’s game will be crucial. A lot of the creating that Gaudreau did was independent of a high-level of passes to the danger areas of the offensive zone. Given that he was a mere 13 points away from the Jackets franchise record for points, it’s not unreasonable to assume he could break that record if given a stronger supporting cast of characters in the near future.

Patrik Laine – RW

Laine again struggled with injuries and availability in an otherwise strong campaign. His production was down by three points in one less game than the previous season, but he saw increased returns in his defensive performance and his passing distribution in the offensive zone, giving a much more complete picture of what Laine can do when he’s available and showing engagement throughout the ice. He did a surprising, volunteer stint as a center last season and held his own in the process. He led all Blue Jacket forwards in shot-attempts by a wide margin and was just behind Johnny Gaudreau in quality scoring chance production by a tenth of a percentage point. Laine’s puck handling was also on display in a prominent fashion last year as he was second among Blue Jacket forwards in both chances created off the rush and shots created off of the rush. Laine remains a pure sniper with a high-velocity shot and above-average finishing ability. If he can continue to round out his game as he has the last two seasons, the only thing stopping him from being an impact player is his health and availability. His peripherals outside of scoring getting a bump last season has people interested in whether or not that trend can continue.

Boone Jenner - C

The Blue Jacket’s Captain saw a 2022-23 campaign where, despite a recurring bout of injuries to his hand and back, he was able to post high water marks in goals (26) and points (45) that he had not achieved since the 2015-16 season. Jenner was cemented as Columbus’ top line center and posted those totals in the face of some difficult deployments. The aforementioned injuries seemed to hit Jenner at the worst times and during periods of strong play. Only Patrik Laine attempted more shots than Jenner at even-strength last season. In addition, Jenner’s expected goal shares were a net positive relative to his teammates. As evidenced by his assist totals, play making and passes that created a shot-attempt were not a part of his strong suit last season. Jenner has some youthful challengers around him that can push for the top center spot for the Blue Jackets as the year progresses. Whether or not Jenner can stay healthy and maintain his place in the lineup will be the biggest question of the upcoming season.

Kent Johnson – LW

Johnson’s rookie season needs to be ingested with a heavy dose of perspective. This young member of the Blue Jackets ended his first full professional season on an echelon that he simply wasn’t close to when the year began. When it was all said and done, Johnson was a routine member of the Jackets top six forward group and he carved out 16 goals and 40 points in 79 games despite some raw youthfulness behind his performances. As his game became more refined, so did his ice time. Johnson was deployed heavily in offensive situations and started a higher percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone than any other Blue Jackets forward. Johnson’s finishing ability was on display throughout the year, and he showcased a wrist shot that possessed several deceptive elements. That being said, his ability to control the play at even-strength and contribute to longer offensive shifts will need to improve. Johnson’s share of expected goals was second to last on the team at just 41 percent. Moving into next year, Johnson will need to continue to refine his game and become more involved away from the puck. Drafted as a center, there’s a question as to whether he will remain on the wing or return to his natural position.

Kirill Marchenko – RW

Marchenko was called up in December and scored 13 goals in the first two months of the season before leveling out and cooling off later in the year. He finished the season with a total of 21 goals and had the fourth highest rate of scoring-chance generation on the team. Marchenko also posted some of the stronger defensive returns on a Blue Jackets team that struggled overall from a defensive perspective. Marchenko didn’t do a ton of heavy lifting with regards to zone entries, but he was a volume shooter, generating the fourth highest rate of even-strength shots among Blue Jacket forwards. Marchenko has shown a deep, unique set of offensive skills that he isn’t afraid to utilize. He’s very bullish with the puck on his stick and sometimes holds it to a detriment. He had the lowest number of high danger passes on the Blue Jackets roster and had none attributed to his name in the games tracked by the All Three Zones project. As Marchenko evolves, puck distribution will be a critical element of his game as he looks to further cement his spot in the top six.

Jack Roslovic – C

Roslovic’s season had a mix of successes and struggles but ultimately ended with a performance that is likely a little below the line of where he was deployed. With his time on ice reflective firmly of a second line player, Roslovic finished the season with just 11 goals and the worst share of expected goals among any Blue Jacket forward at this season with just 40.6 percent of the quality shots to his name at five-on-five. These results are perplexing when you consider that Roslovic led the Blue Jackets in zone entries per 60 and created more shots off of the forecheck than any forward on the team per the All Three Zones project. These loose ends make a little more sense when you also consider Roslovic had the second highest rate of giveaways on the team and generally made some low-percentage plays from the exterior of the high-danger areas with those possessions. Additionally, Roslovic’s defensive returns were in the 6th percentile among NHL forwards. The wow-factor that Roslovic can provide hasn’t been consistent enough or developed beyond what fans saw upon his arrival in Columbus. There is a large question around where his best deployment is moving into this upcoming season.

Emil Bemstrom – LW

Bemstrom played 55 games for the Blue Jackets last year as he spent a chunk of time in the AHL with Cleveland. The sheen of an exciting, sniper-based prospect has quickly dissolved off of Bemstrom’s game and there’s some question about where he projects for the current state of the Blue Jackets makeup. His defensive work has been his best attribute so far. While he exhibited an ability to take defensive zone deployments and flourish, he struggled in some critical areas of offensive support. Per the All Three Zones data, Bemstrom put had the lowest total of shots off the forecheck and the second lowest total of zone entries per 60 among Blue Jacket forwards. Bemstrom’s shot, arguably his best asset, hasn’t been used in enough high-danger areas to make an impact. As a result, Bemstrom had the second lowest even-strength shooting percentage on the team at just over four percent. Tying this back into Bemstrom’s lack of shots on the forecheck, and it’s clear that the challenge for him is to find ways to get to the front of the net and generate scoring chances from in tight on goal. There will be a battle for him to carve out his place in the bottom six for Columbus this season.

Cole Sillinger - C

Sillinger hit a lot of struggles in his second year in the league, including a run where he went on a nearly 50 game goal-scoring drought in the middle of the season before ultimately being sent down to the American Hockey League. That sophomore slump, combined with an average-at-best performance in the AHL, raises legitimate questions about where Sillinger will start the year for Columbus in 2023-24. A big problem for Sillinger comes from the results outside of his goal scoring. Goal scoring slumps can be tolerable when players are driving play and generating chances, but that truly was not the case here. Sillinger’s game seemed to develop a vanilla element and appeared to lack confidence. Sillinger’s hallmark in his rookie season was creating space and participating in zone entries. This season, he had the second lowest carry-in percentage of any forward on the Blue Jackets. I’d argue Sillinger’s path to returning to impactful hockey is centric towards putting the puck on his stick more this season. His confidence in carrying the puck and pushing the play forward garnered him a load of shots and chances in his rookie season that were simply missing from his game entirely last year.

Alexandre Texier – RW

Texier returns to the NHL for 2023-24 after playing in Switzerland last year. In dealing with a personal issue, Texier opted to be closer to his family in France. He returns to the NHL with 49 points to his name in 129 career games. Texier’s returns defensively make him a good bet to feature as a winger on the third line. His penalty killing impacts have traditionally been strong as a direct link to his defensive performances at even-strength and it’s expected he’ll make a significant impact in that area as well. He’s coming off of a productive season in Zurich where he scored 35 points in 46 games and played a significant role on special teams. Hearkening back to his last time in the NHL, Texier played a massive role in forechecking per the All Three Zones data from that season. He recovered the third most dump-ins among team forwards that season. The expectation is that he’ll have a continued impact in that area as well as the other traditionally difficult areas of the ice. Expect Texier to be present in front of the net and creating issues for opposing defensemen with his forechecking ability.

Defense

Zach Werenski – D

Werenski’s campaign was cut drastically short after just 13 games last season. Werenski landed awkwardly on his elbow and ended up requiring surgery that would cut his season short. While there isn’t enough of a body of work to make any drastic evaluations from his prior year, what we can acknowledge is how strong he started the year offensively speaking. Through the first 13 games of the year, Werenski registered three goals and five points in that small sample, putting him well on his way to pacing towards a career high in points. With his health back, Werenski will be looked upon as the champion of the Blue Jackets backline. From taking on the most difficult minutes Mike Babcock and the coaching staff can drum up to being looked at to help drive zone entries and offensive contributions. Looking back at the All Three Zone data from 2021-22, Werenski averaged seven more successful zone exits per 60 than his next closest peer, further evidence of the massive role he plays in the Jackets ability to navigate out of the defensive zone successfully. For this year, Werenski will be looking for a continuation of his hot start from the previous year and a clean bill of health.

Ivan Provorov – D

Provorov arrived in Columbus from Philadelphia via a three-team trade. Coming off of a season where his offensive numbers plummeted and he was embroiled in controversy around his vocal decisions to opt-out of team-based social causes, he’ll move to the Jacket’s where his responsibilities in deployment should drastically change. In Philadelphia, he was deployed and used as a number one overall defenseman and the results were, quite frankly, disastrous. Provorov tied a career low in goals (6) despite playing in all 82 games and seeing an increase in minutes. His offensive outputs regarding shot and chance creation dropped to the 29th percentile in the NHL among defensemen. Provorov also struggled defensively and exhibited a few steps back in his decision-making processes. One strength he will certainly bring to the Jacket’s defensive unit is a strong ability to retrieve pucks and get them to safety. He led the Flyers last season and in previous seasons for defensive zone retrievals per hour of even-strength ice time. Overall, a change of scenery was necessary for both player and team in the case of Provorov. With Columbus having a new look, revamped blue line, it may allow him to take on a more friendly deployment that re-centers his performances both offensively and defensively.

Damon Severson – D

Severson arrives in Columbus via a sign-and-trade deal that will keep him with the Blue Jackets for a total of eight years. Severson is expected to be paired on the top pairing alongside offensive defenseman Zach Werenski. This duo should have no issue moving the puck up ice as both defenders have developed a strong reputation for doing so. Per the All Three Zones data, Severson had the second highest average of zone exits with possession per hour of even-strength ice time among Devil defenders. His offensive impacts last season with regards to driving shots and scoring chances put him in an elite company. At even-strength last season, Severson controlled 60% of the expected goals while he was on the ice, a gaudy number that should have Jackets fans excited for his debut. Severson’s performance defensively, while unremarkable, is notably consistent and reliable. The biggest question for this season is how his performance will handle a stark increase in quality of competition. His minutes are sure to grow, and his responsibilities are sure to increase. His mobility and vision should aid him in navigating that new environment with few issues.

Andrew Peeke - D

Peeke once again eclipsed the 80-game mark for the second season in a row. He’s evolved into a one-way, stay-at-home style defenseman who posted extremely respectable results in defensive buckets last season. For instance, among Blue Jacket defenders with at least 500 minutes played, Peeke had the lowest expected-goals against per hour of even-strength hockey on the team. The issue for Peeke is that despite his performance defensively, he’s a detriment to offensive performance. The All Three Zones data reveals a lot of failed zone exits and entries that lead to a scoring chance. Peeke’s skating can be an issue in situations where the game quickly transitions from offensive to defense or vice versa. As a result of some of these limitations, only Erik Gudbranson posted worse puck-possession and expected-goal share numbers than Peeke’s 43 percent in both buckets. His time on ice leads to a lot of low event hockey, but a new potential partner along his flank could assist in some of the heavy lifting around zone exits and offensive contributions to help level out what he does defensively. While the discussion around Peeke’s ceiling as changed, he still has utility when deployed correctly.

ist entirely of rookies and sophomores in Fantilli, Johnson and Marchenko while two of the three forwards on their projected first line – Boone Jenner and Laine – have significant injury histories, and there’s a lot that could go wrong up front too.

Top Breakout Candidate: At the same time, there is plenty of reason to be hopeful about Johnson. The 20-year-old had 16 goals and 40 points in 79 contests last season despite averaging a modest 14:31 of ice time. Selected with the fifth overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, he’s got tons of upside and should play a bigger role this season. A 60-point showing in 2023-24 is far from guaranteed, but not out of the question.

Goaltending

Elvis Merzlikins - G

Few goaltenders have come onto the scene looking brighter – and with better fanfare – before falling as spectacularly from grace as Columbus Blue Jackets starter Elvis Merzlikins. Of all goaltenders in the NHL last season, no one struggled more than the Latvian netminder – who will turn 30 at the end of this upcoming season, making it harder and harder to imagine that his regression is something he can definitively bounce back from.

Merzlikins still boasts a lot of the characteristics in his game that made him so easy to root for when he first hit the ice in Columbus. He’s a lower-body powerhouse who plays using his skating and his edgework as a weapon, consistently capitalizing on needing less time to get from point A to point B than even the average NHL starter. He still has an arsenal of ‘fun’ saves to choose from that he’ll break out when fans least expect it, and he’s still capable of showcasing impressive depth management through stretches of mundane saves. That, when he was at the top of his game, set him apart from so many of the league’s other ‘athletic’ goaltenders; while he was capable of playing a fun and free-wheeling game, he could keep things under control in order to avoid being drawn away from his crease and opening up unnecessary holes. In theory, he has one of the best styles to plonk in net behind a transitioning Columbus roster – but even though he was able to deliver for his first few years in the league, he’s been an Achilles heel for Columbus for going on three seasons now and counting. Last year, his goals saved above expected was the worst in the entire NHL, his quality start percentage was below 30 percent, and he failed to record a shutout for the first time over a full season since he came to the NHL in 2019. It was more than just a smattering of really bad games that dragged his numbers down, too; he was only able to string together eight games with a save percentage above league average eight times all season. Game film makes it hard to figure out why, too; while his reads still looked good and his technique didn’t look like he was slipping, he just kept missing stops that he had gotten well into position for. It looked like a struggle defined in millimeters, making it that much harder to diagnose just why exactly he can’t put it all together anymore. That’s hardly a comfort for the Blue Jackets, who have to hope he’s able to finally return to his old form next year without throwing the younger Daniil Tarasov to the wolves as the team’s only clear-cut starting option. But without fellow tandem partner Joonas Korpisalo around anymore, maybe Merzlikins will finally be able to shake off the seemingly jinxed game he’s been playing for the last few years and reset his game as the team’s lone vet in net.

Projected starts: 50-55

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS – NHL Player Profiles

Ryan Dadoun – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 23:16:12 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 16: Columbus Blue Jackets Right Wing Patrik Laine (29) warms up before a Los Angeles Kings game versus the Columbus Blue Jackets on April 16, 2022, at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Johnny Gaudreau

Gaudreau is a rare talent. His lack of size made many initially question his viability in the NHL and he certainly has never been a physical threat. He hasn’t needed to be though. His speed, stickhandling, high hockey IQ, and playmaking ability make him one of the most dangerous players offensively in the NHL. By Gaudreau’s own admission, he likes to pass the puck and he excels at setting up his linemates, but he’s fully capable of taking the shot himself. He did so with more frequency last season, averaging 3.2 shots/game compared to just 2 in 2020-21 and an average of 2.69 over his career. That increase in shots led to him setting a career-high of 40 goals. That jump in goals was in addition to him having one of his best seasons overall, leading to him scoring 115 points and finishing fourth in Hart Trophy voting. He’s growing defensively too and excelled from a puck possession perspective with 5v5 Corsi and Fenwick’s of 57.1% and 56.9% respectively. All that being said though, he was put in an ideal situation. He spent 76% of his even strength ice time alongside Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk. That trio was amazing with all three of them finishing with at least 40 goals and 80 points. Gaudreau was a huge part of that success to be sure, but will he be able to do just as well after moving to the Columbus Blue Jackets? Perhaps and the key to that could be how well he meshes with Patrik Laine. Laine has one of the best shots in the league. He’s had an inconsistent career, but he’s also still young and playing with someone of Gaudreau’s caliber should be mutually beneficial.

Patrik Laine

Early in Laine’s career, it looked like he might be the next Alex Ovechkin. Laine scored 36 goals as a rookie and 44 in his sophomore season. Trouble is, he’s been a mixed bag since then with some amazing stretches and prolonged cold streaks. The 2020-21 campaign was a brutal one for him. He performed poorly under then Blue Jackets coach John Tortorella, scoring 10 goals and 21 points in 45 contests after being acquired by Columbus. He did rebound in 2021-22 under new bench boss Brad Larsen though, recording 26 goals and 56 points in 56 contests. In terms of points/60 minutes that was his best season to date, though his goals/60 still lagged behind the pace he set in his first two seasons. The Blue Jackets’ addition of Johnny Gaudreau over the summer could change that. We’ll have to see how the two mesh, but at least on paper combining one of the best shots in the league with one of the NHL’s top playmakers seems like a match made in heaven. The Blue Jackets need to hope so because they signed Laine to a four-year, $34.8 million deal and outside of his offensive skills, he doesn’t bring a lot to the table. He’s a defensive liability and his puck possession numbers have been underwhelming. He’s had a negative 5v5 Corsi and Fenwick relative in every single season to date, which means that from a puck possession perspective, the teams he’s played on have done better when he’s off the ice compared to when he’s on it. So there are clear risks associated with Laine, but he’s an exciting player and the prospect of him playing with Gaudreau makes him one of the must watch forwards of 2022-23.

Jakub Voracek

Although it had been roughly a decade since Voracek last played for Columbus, when the Flyers traded him to the Blue Jackets in the summer of 2021, he settled right back in. Voracek had six goals and 62 points in 79 contests, making it the 10th straight season he recorded at leas 0.74 points-per-game, which translates to about 61 points over 82 games. In other words, while Voracek has only finished in the top-10 in points once, he has been a reliably good forward throughout his career. He used to be an okay, though not spectacular goal scorer too, but his game has changed with age. At his height in 2016-17, he averaged 3.09 shots-per-game, but he hasn’t crossed the 2 shots-per-game mark over his last three seasons and in 2021-22 he dropped to just 1.86 shots-per-game. Fortunately, the 33-year-old can still generate those scoring chances with most combinations of linemates. He lacked anything close to consistent linemates at even strength last season and he was still a consistent contributor with his longest point drought being only three games. That flexibility is important because he’ll likely serve in a second-line role while offseason addition Johnny Gaudreau along with Patrik Laine will occupy the top unit’s wings. For Voracek, the more important factor will be his role on the power play. He was a mainstay on the top power-play unit, averaging 3:13 minutes and he contributed two goals and 25 points in that role. If Voracek sees his power-play time diminish then that, more than having him on the second line, could meaningfully reduce his point total. He’s still more likely than not to find success this season, but it’s the one thing to keep in the back of your mind while watching how the Jackets are assembled around Gaudreau.

Gustav Nyquist

Nyquist is a pretty good, but unexciting forward. When his career began, he looked like a solid goal scorer, but the last time he recorded at least 25 markers was 2014-15. Nowadays he doesn’t fire the puck nearly enough (just 1.49 shots-per-game last season) to be anything more than a secondary gaol scoring threat. He’s skilled offensively, but he’s more of a good second-line option than the kind of elite talent teams want to lean on heavily. Not every player is going to be a headlining act though and he’s pretty much everything you’d want in a complimentary forward. He does a lot right, is sound defensively, and gets sent out on both the power play and shorthanded situations. He also wore an ‘A’ last season, highlighting his worth to the Blue Jackets as a team leader. The 33-year-old (as of his birthday on Sept. 1) has aged well so far and he likely has at least a couple more good seasons in him. It helps that he’s enjoyed a fairly healthy career with the obvious exception of 2020-21 when he missed the full campaign due to a shoulder injury. He bounced right back last season though, scoring 18 goals and 53 points while playing the full 82 games. There’s just plenty to like here and he’s a good bet to record around 50 points again in the final campaign of his four-year, $22 million contract.

Jack Roslovic

After breaking out in 2019-20 with 12 goals and 34 points in 48 games, Roslovic’s production was all over the place last season. He had a couple nasty cold spells, including a season-opening stretch of three assists in 13 games, a run from Dec. 16-Jan. 27 where he scored a goal and three points in 13 contests, and an 11-game stretch from Mar. 17-Apr. 7 where he was limited to three assists. Those droughts were balanced out by some great stretches, the most notable of which was his run of 10 goals and 13 points in 10 games to cap out the season. It’s worth noting that sometimes the problem was circumstances. In that final hot stretch, he was averaging 20:24 minutes, in large part because top center Boone Jenner was injured. Contrast that with his aforementioned season-opening slump where he logged just 12:03 minutes per game and the issue becomes apparent. He ultimately had 29 games in 2021-22 where he was given under 12 minutes of ice time, and he had just two goals and five points in those contests. In games where he got over 12 minutes, he had 20 goals and 40 points in 52 contests. Clearly, he can step up offensively when put in the right position. Whether or not he will get that opportunity is the key question going into the season, but the odds are in his favor. After signing him to a two-year, $8 million contract over the summer, Roslovic is projected to start the campaign as the second-line center. He will have to battle Cole Sillinger for that spot, but at least going into the campaign, that top-six role is likely to be held by the more experienced Roslovic.

Sean Kuraly

Kuraly has size and he will use that to his advantage defensively, but his offensive game has never been great. Even in 2021-22, when he averaged a career-high 15:52 minutes, he was still limited to 14 goals and 30 points in 77 games. Those numbers are strong when measured against the rest of his career, but still nothing to get excited over. Without the puck though, he had a very busy season. He was credited with 51 blocks and tied for 11th in the NHL with 240 hits. He also led all Blue Jackets forwards with an average of 2:22 shorthanded minutes, further highlighting his defensive role with the team. There’s not much else to praise him for though. After winning 57.4% of his faceoffs in 2020-21, he dropped to 49.4% last season and his career average is 50.3% so he’s not a real asset there and in terms of 5v5 Corsi and Fenwick he was an underwhelming 47.4% and 46.3% respectively. His goal and point totals were career-highs for him, but he’ll probably regress in 2022-23. The issue he faces in that regard is that the Blue Jackets are looking solid up the middle between Boone Jenner, the maturing Jack Roslovic, and the up-and-coming Cole Sillinger. That leaves Kuraly as potentially the fourth line center and a shorthanded specialist going into the season. It’s a role he should do well in, but not one that leads to much in the way of points.

Cole Sillinger

His father, Mike, played for 12 different NHL teams, but the Blue Jackets see Cole Sillinger as a potential cornerstone player who will hopefully stick with their team for a long time. The younger Sillinger’s rookie season wasn’t spectacular, but for a teenager who jumped straight from the USHL to the NHL, he did well. Sillinger had 16 goals and 31 points in 79 games while averaging a modest 13:42 minutes. His role included a little power-play ice time (0:51 minutes per game), but just two of his points came with the advantage. The 6-foot-0, 201-pound forward also had a bit of a physical aspect to his game, contributing 98 hits while accumulating 37 penalty minutes. It’s also worth noting that he blocked 43 shots, which was the fourth most among Blue Jackets forwards. Those are important aspects of his game for him to build on, but in the long run it’s his offensive instincts and in particular his wrist shot that figure to be his bread-and-butter. Looking ahead, he’s projected to open the season as the Blue Jackets’ third center, though he could challenge Jack Roslovic for the second slot as the season goes on and of course there’s always the potential that injuries will present Sillinger with an opportunity. We might not see him breakout in 2022-23, but we should see him take another step forward by reaching the 20-goal and 40-point milestones.

Boone Jenner

While Jenner couldn’t play beyond March 11 last season due to a lower back injury, everything that happened before that was good. He struggled in 2020-21 with eight goals and 17 points in 41 games, but bounced back nicely last season, scoring 23 goals and 44 points in 59 games. He established himself as the Blue Jackets’ clear number one center and led all their forwards with an average of 20:28 minutes per game, including 2:58 power-play minutes. He was also won 53.6% of his 1,198 faceoffs, which isn’t amazing, but it was better than Columbus’ other primary options: Sean Kuraly (49.5%), Jack Roslovic (43.5%), and Cole Sillinger (46.5%). In addition to that, the Blue Jackets also felt comfortable regularly sending him out in shorthanded situations. With his importance to Columbus in so many aspects of the game, he’s been a good captain for them since getting the job at the start of the 2021-22 campaign. This coming season could be his best yet though. Columbus signed Johnny Gaudreau over the summer, which might lead to Jenner’s linemates being him and Patrik Laine. At least on paper, that looks like a potent combination and Jenner should benefit from being part of that trio. He’s come close to reaching the 50-point milestone before but has fallen short. There’s a good chance that this will be the year he breaches it.

Alexandre Texier

Anyone looking for promising forwards who have flown a little under the radar a bit might want to consider Texier. He got off to a quiet start in 2021-22, recording two goals in nine games, but his game started to come together after that. He had nine goals and 18 points in 22 contests from Nov. 6-Jan. 13. Had he been able to continue from there, perhaps he wouldn’t be entering this campaign as an underrated forward, but he didn’t play beyond Jan. 26 due to a fractured finger and later personal reasons. He’s ready to play now though after scoring three goals and five points in seven games while representing France in the World Championships. Getting that extra work in after the season should help given how much time he’s missed not just in 2021-22, but in general. Between injuries, time spent either unavailable or on the taxi squad, and the pandemic shortening campaigns, Texier has logged just 121 NHL games plus 10 playoff contests over the last three seasons. That’s not exactly ideal for the 23-year-old’s (as of his birthday on Sept. 13) development, but he’s nevertheless come along nicely. He’s responsible at both ends of the ice and impressive speed. He’s also versatile, capable of playing as either a center or on the wing. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him start the season on the third line, but he has top-six potential.

DEFENSE

Zach Werenski

Since Werenski first entered the NHL in 2016, he has played primarily alongside Seth Jones. In fact, a staggering 87.6% of Werenski’s even strength ice time was shared with defensive partner Jones in 2020-21. With Jones now in Chicago though, how would Werenski do? As it turns out, just fine. Werenski scored 11 goals and a career-high 48 points in 68 games while averaging 25:40 minutes. Rather than have a consistent defensive partner like he had a year prior, Columbus tested out a bunch of different partners, most notably Jake Bean and Andrew Peeke, who shared 36.9% and 36.5% of Werenski’s even strength minutes respectively. Werenski adjusted nicely to that new normal. Defensively, Werenski wasn’t anything impressive, but he also wasn’t a liability. His 5v5 Corsi and Fenwick stood at 49.7% and 48.6% respectively, which doesn’t sound good, but it’s worth noting that’s better than the Blue Jackets overall. Columbus was one of the worst teams defensively last season and that more than anything kept the squad out of the playoffs, but it’s important to remember that wasn’t Werenski’s fault. He’s not a perfect defenseman or the league’s top blueliner, but he more than held up his end of the bargain last season and at the age of 25, he should continue to do so. He’ll once again enter the campaign as Columbus’ undisputed number one defenseman and will consequently be deployed liberally in all situations. That will only serve to reinforce Werenski’s offensive numbers and if he stays healthy, it’s entirely possible that we’ll witness his first 50-plus point campaign.

Adam Boqvist

Acquired from Chicago in the summer of 2021 as part of the Seth Jones trade, Boqvist entered Columbus with plenty of potential, but also significant question marks. He’s an offensive defenseman through and through. He loves having the puck and he has the speed and shot to justify his style of play. When it comes to his defensive work though, he’s lacking. He doesn’t have size and won’t play a physical game, nor does he block a ton of shots. He really does seem to be developing into a purely offensive defenseman, though he is still just 22-years-old, so some further growth is to be expected. In fact, some further growth is practically required, because while Boqvist made some strides in his first season with Columbus, he also left something to be desired. He had 11 goals and 22 points in 52 games while averaging a modest 17:03 minutes. With offensive contributions being his bread-and-butter, how hot-and-cold he was in that area of the game was somewhat disheartening. He had six goals and 13 points in 14 games from Nov. 24-Jan. 8, but his numbers before and after that are underwhelming. As he matures though, that’s something that is likely to be addressed and we might see more regular production out of him as early as this season, which would lead to him comfortably surpassing his 2021-22-point total. Columbus inked him to a three-year, $7.8 million contract over the summer. If he can continue to develop offensively, then that should prove to be a very good signing.

Vladislav Gavrikov

With Seth Jones gone, the Blue Jackets didn’t have anyone who could step in and assume the full burden he left. Instead, Columbus needed multiple defensemen to do more and Gavrikov was one of the key players to help fill that void. He finished second on the Blue Jackets with an average of 22:17 minutes, up from 19:24 minutes per game during his 2020-21 sophomore season. Gavrikov also made strides offensively, scoring five goals and a career-high 33 points in 80 contests. He was a great blueliner for Columbus with a bargain cap hit of $2.8 million, but he wasn’t a pure stand-in for Jones. In contrast to Jones, who was a key part of the Blue Jackets’ power play during his tenure there, Gavrikov got almost no ice time with the man advance in 2021-22. That’s not likely to change either. While Gavrikov did make solid offensive contributions last season, he’s a two-way defender who leans a bit more to the defensive side of the game. He finished second on the team with 138 blocks and third with 124 hits. He also was leaned on heavily in shorthanded situations, averaging 3:05 minutes per game. He’ll turn 27-years-old in November, so he’s well past the point of being a prospect and it’s probably too much to hope for him to grow his offensive game significantly more. But even if he stays exactly as he is, he’ll carve out a great career for himself as an important top-four defenseman.

Jake Bean

Bean established himself with Carolina in 2020-21, logging 42 games, but he only averaged 14:32 minutes. When Columbus acquired him from Carolina in July 2021, he was put in a situation to succeed. The Blue Jackets had just dealt away Seth Jones – in fact they used one of the draft picks they got in the Jones trade to acquire Bean – so there was a big hole left to be filled. Bean couldn’t replace Jones of course, but did play a big role, scoring seven goals and 25 points in 67 games while averaging 20:34 minutes. In terms of average ice time, Bean was the third most commonly used player in Columbus at even strength (18:22 minutes). He got a bit of power play and shorthanded ice time too, but he wasn’t a key part of either special team unit. He also was far from a physical threat, accumulating 41 hits. When measuring puck possession though, he did okay. He had a 48.4% 5v5 Corsi and 46.4% 5v5 Fenwick, which is roughly in line with how Columbus did as a team. All-in-all, it wasn’t a bad season for Bean, but it wasn’t anything special either. He was simply fine and for a player with a $2,333,333 cap hit, that’s acceptable. Bean does have some untapped offensive upside though and after a year adjusting to his bigger role and life in Columbus, it will be interesting to see how he does in 2022-23. Don’t expect him to overtake Zach Werenski as the team’s main offensive threat from the blueline, but Bean has the potential to finish in the 30-40 point range.

GOALTENDING

Elvis Merzlikins

It was hard not to feel for Merzlikins last year, as the fun-loving 28-year-old Latvian netminder navigated a season playing in a building boasting a cannon just months after losing his teammate and friend to a fireworks accident on the Fourth of July. His numbers were far from the main focus for many as they considered what his year would look like – but that will likely change this year as the Blue Jackets make a big push to return to contention. The addition of Johnny Gaudreau in the off-season made it clear that the playoffs were an objective for the Metropolitan Division club – and they’ll look to Merzlikins to be the goaltender that gets them there.

At 28, we likely know what Merzlikins is going to be for the Blue Jackets. He’s best known for his eye-catching stops that take the influence of free-wheeling Slovakian goaltending coach Dusan Sidor, Sr. and enable Merzlikins to pull the trickiest techniques without it affecting the rest of his game. If anything, he sometimes looks a little too eager to make the stops no one else can; while he’s equally capable of playing the waiting game in the blue paint and holding his positioning against approaching offense, he prefers the chances he gets to pull out all the stops. No one seems to love putting on a show more than Merzlikins, and the Blue Jackets have been able to feed off that energy in the past as they adjusted to a world after Sergei Bobrovsky’s departure for the Florida Panthers. There’s a chance that Merzlikins will see a changing of the guard as his number two halfway through the year, with prospect Daniil Tarasov set to return from hip surgery and Joonas Korpisalo’s name still bandied about the ever-rumbling trade market. If Columbus does opt to move Korpisalo out to make room for a younger talent, expect Merzlikins to take on a heavier workload to help the newer Tarasov adjust. But for now, this is a team that has thrived with their tandem battalion over the last handful of years – so there’s little reason to be worried that they’ll stray from that course any time soon.

Projected starts: 50-55

Joonas Korpisalo

The goaltending conundrum faced by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the summer of 2021 – when the team seeed poised to seriously consider jettisoning one of either Elvis Merzlikins or Joonas Korpisalo to pave the way for the other to be the clear number one – has quite noticeably resolved itself. While the 2021-22 season wasn’t one that anyone on the Blue Jackets likely wants to spend much time reminiscing about, Korpisalo’s very apparent struggles stood out and lent favor to Merzlikins to be the team’s clear number one moving forward. It’s not likely that Korpisalo will be able to turn the tides in his favor again, short a miraculous season that revitalizes his game entirely. While Korpisalo has always been the more consistent entity for Columbus, his game’s weaknesses – including his struggles with angles and getting properly centered to shots in close – became predictable enough that teams were able to take advantage. He still had a few heart-stopping highlight-reel moments throughout the year, and it’s entirely possible that the constant spectre of a trade hanging over his head made it hard for the Finnish-born netminder to keep his focus. But with Columbus focused on taking a step back forward and returning to contention, it seems hard to picture Korpisalo being given anything but a short leash.

Projected starts: 25-30

2022 NHL PLAYOFFS: CALGARY VS. DALLAS – Similar style of play, but Flames depth will be a challenge for Dallas

Corey Sznajder — Sun, 01 May 2022 20:21:31 +0000

CALGARY, AB - APRIL 21: Dallas Stars Left Wing Jason Robertson (21) tries to take a shot as Calgary Flames Center Elias Lindholm (28) backchecks during the third period of an NHL game where the Calgary Flames hosted the Dallas Stars on April 21, 2022, at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB. (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire)

Calgary/Dallas

It’s not often a wild card matchup features two of the best lines in hockey going head-to-head. Johnny Gaudreau has been a Hart candidate all season, sleepwalking his way to 115-point season. It’s the only line that features three 40 goal scorers and have been a wrecking force since October. In the other corner, Jason Robertson has built a stealth Hart Trophy case for himself, dragging the Stars into a playoff spot in the second half of the season and providing an instant spark whenever he’s on the ice.

Dallas’ run to the post-season was remarkable, beating out a heavily favored team to make the dance, but it’s going to take a gargantuan effort by their top line or a revival from one of Tyler Seguin or Jamie Benn for them to pull off this upset. At least that’s the way this series looks on paper. Calgary is one of the highest scoring teams in the league at five-on-five and even when factoring in their outstanding top line, Dallas is a bottom-three team in goal-scoring. Even in the last two months of the season, the Stars are averaging 2.27 goals per 60 minutes, one below the Columbus Blue Jackets. Compare that to Calgary average 3.06 goals per 60 minutes and this looks like a mismatch. There are a lot of things that had to go right for Dallas to get to this point, but this is a 2v7 matchup for a reason.

If there’s anything that can instill some hope in Stars fans, it’s the run they went on in the bubble and what they can do to repeat that. Calgary is a better team now with a better head coach, but Dallas has most of the pieces from that run along with a shiny new toy in Robertson. Dallas isn’t a high-octane team, but what they do well is defend. Specially the type of defending that turns tie games into a coinflip where you just need a few things to go right, and you’re set. They got that by-committee in the bubble with a variety of different players stepping up. This year, they’re relying more on their top line, which might be able to do the same thing, but they have a very daunting task ahead of them, keeping one of Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk off the scoreboard.

Gaudreau’s Playoff Struggles

Taking a different approach to this series, we’re going to look at how goals were scored in last year’s playoffs and see if there’s anything we can learn from Gaudreau’s playoff struggles with it. Gaudreau had a decent seven points in 10 games in the bubble but was held scoreless in Calgary’s previous two first round losses. His two goals in the bubble loss to Dallas both coming on the power play. We all hear how playoff hockey is a different beast than the regular season. Teams are more dialed in; they play with more of an edge and players like Gaudreau aren’t going to get a free pass to do whatever they want with the puck on the ice like they might during a game in the middle of February.

Looking at all the games tracked in the All Three Zones Project from last year’s playoffs, we can see the types of shots, passing plays and playing situations that lead to the most goals during five-on-five play. Are rush goals hard to come by in the playoffs? Do you need to be good on the forecheck and is that bad for a skilled player like Gaudreau who relies more on speed and shiftiness rather than brute strength to create chances?

In terms of creating off the rush vs. the forecheck, there’s not really any major difference between how often goals are scored off the rush vs. in-zone offense. It doesn’t really present a problem for a team like Calgary either, as they play a lot on both. Even Gaudreau’s line has Matthew Tkachuk on it, so they have enough guys who can play whatever game you throw at them. Shots off the rush don’t exactly present a huge advantage to the other two styles in terms of shot quality, though. So that’s a plus for Calgary.

Then there’s the types of shots, which is a little more interesting.

So, most goals in last year’s playoffs were off rebounds, point shots, screened shots, odd-man rushes and deflections. The high danger plays are still high danger, but they happen less often. It makes sense. Point shots are what you do when there’s no space for the pretty plays and you’re hoping to get enough space up there or pray that it hits something and goes in. That’s probably where the struggles happen for Gaudreau. You can play off the rush, sure but the middle of the ice for those pretty passing plays won’t be open and good luck getting a break long enough to start a 3-on-2 rush. One-timer goals happening less frequently also stings because teeing off on those is one of Elias Lindholm’s best strengths.

As much as we hate to admit it, ugly hockey usually gets you goals in the playoffs and that’s where the Flames have to be better this year. They’re more equipped to deal with it. Their blue line can all get the puck through traffic and getting to the net is in the Tkachuk brothers’ DNA. Nobody with the storied history of deflecting pucks like Joe Pavelski, but your Blake Colemans and Andrew Mangiapanes of the world can play that style. Mangiapane being one of the best in the NHL at rebound chances and deflections.

Of course, this is where the Stars can make hay if they keep the games close enough. Jake Oettinger is good enough to not let it happen, but he’s still young and going up against the league leaders in shutouts, Jacob Markstrom. Calgary is also playing Sutter Hockey at its finest, grinding most of their games out but with the Gaudreau line having a historic season to back it up. They play a more similar style to the Stars despite scoring so much more. They let their top line do their thing and everyone else goes into clampdown mode for the rest of the game.

It’s a formula that’s worked for other teams, so Calgary is at another advantage even if Gaudreau’s struggles continue. The one thing that would scare me is that Jason Robertson’s line has more of an advantage in how the goals are scored because they aren’t as dependent on odd-man rushes for their goals. They play the forechecking style better anyway, as most of their goals are off a dump-in or a long in-zone shift. Which is what could make this series more interesting.

Miro The Hero

The last time Dallas was in the playoffs, the world got to see just how damn good Miro Heiskanen is. The offense hasn’t come around like most hoped, but he can get the puck out of harm’s way seamlessly and do so many things for you. He has the skating to keep up with the most skilled forwards in the league and incredible endurance. All that is missing is the offense, which he still creates but not as much as what he could potentially do with better finishing around him. We saw a glimpse of it in the bubble where he was the best defenseman on the ice in a series that featured Victor Hedman.

If Dallas gets that version of Miro, it could be a game changer depending on how much Dallas’ other pairs hold their ground against the Tyler Toffoli and Mikael Backlund. It will be fun to watch him shadow Gaudreau on those long cycle shifts. Anyone who loves great skating should love this series for that alone. Heiskanen can beat a few guys coming out of the zone, so his breakouts might frustrate Calgary’s top line, if anything.

Prediction:

Calgary in 5

The Flames can just play the Stars brand of hockey better than Dallas can now. Calgary’s top line obviously needs to produce to get off the shneid, but they’re also deep enough to keep up with the Stars depth lines. Robertson’s line and the Stars general opportunistic play will win them a game or two, though.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – The Arizona Coyotes are suddenly a source of scoring, Jakub Vrana and Anthony Mantha both return to action, Tim Stutzle, Calle Jarnkrok, Artturi Lehkonen and more.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 11 Mar 2022 14:20:51 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, the Arizona Coyotes are suddenly a source of scoring, Jakub Vrana and Anthony Mantha both return to action, Tim Stutzle, Calle Jarnkrok, Artturi Lehkonen and more.

#1 A few weeks ago, I wrote about how Arizona Coyotes right winger Nick Schmaltz was on a pretty good run, starting to put up points on a consistent basis. Then he took his game to a new level. In his past 11 games, Schmaltz has put up 22 points (11 G, 11 A), though he has done this with just 25 shots on goal so there are some sustainability questions. To be fair, though, any player that is scoring at a two-points-per-game clip is going to have sustainability questions. The Coyotes are starting to score in bunches and Schmaltz is playing a prominent role in that attack.

#2 The trade rumblings have been hovering around Coyotes defenseman Jakob Chychrun almost all season and he got off to such a terrible start – it was a far cry from his 2021 season when he scored 18 goals in 56 games. However, Chychrun appears to have found his range once again and in the past six games, he has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 21 shots on goal. A 23-year-old defenseman who can produce offensively and has years remaining on a team-friendly deal? The Coyotes should get a major haul in return if they are going to move Chychrun.

#3 Former Coyotes center Dylan Strome, now with the Chicago Blackhawks, was a healthy scratch and reportedly on the trade block early in the season but now he is just churning out points while centering Chicago’s top line between Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane. Strome is on a 5-game point streak, putting up 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 16 shots on goal. For a Blackhawks team that is getting ready to rebuild, they don’t necessarily need to hurry Strome out the door.

COLUMBUS, OH - MAY 08: Emil Bemstrom #52 of the Columbus Blue Jackets and Jakub Vrana #15 of the Detroit Red Wings battle for the puck during the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Detroit Red Wings at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio on May 8, 2021. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire)

#4 Out all season while recovering from shoulder surgery, Detroit Red Wings left winger Jakub Vrana has made an instant impact, scoring three goals, with seven shots on goal, in his first two games of the season. He is not going to keep scoring on 42.9% of his shots but Vrana has scored 11 goals in 13 games with the Red Wings, going back to when he was acquired at the trade deadline last season, making the most of his new opportunity.

#5 The player going the other way in the Vrana trade was Anthony Mantha, the towering winger who has also missed a bunch of time following shoulder surgery this season. Mantha has two points (1 G, 1 A) and nine shots on goal in four games since returning to action, and he is in a good spot, skating on a line with Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie.

#6 The third overall pick in the 2020 Draft, Ottawa Senators center Tim Stutzle is starting to reach some of his vast potential. Early in the season, Stutzle was creating chances, often with highlight-reel moves, but pucks weren’t going in the net, and he had a modest zero goals and five assists through 13 games. He has seven points (1 G, 6 A) and 11 shots on goal during his four-game point streak and is up to 34 points (13 G, 21 A) in 56 games in his sophomore season.

#7 With Mathew Barzal injured, the Islanders centers have moved up a slot on the depth chart, which means more opportunities for Brock Nelson and Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Nelson has four points (3 G, 1 A) and 14 shots on goal during a four-game point streak, while Pageau has seven points (3 G, 4 A) albeit with just 10 shots on goal in the past seven games.

#8 A versatile middle six forward, Calle Jarnkrok has been a solid contributor in the first season of the Seattle Kraken, but Jarnkrok also has an expiring contract, which should have him squarely on the trade block as the March 21 trade deadline approaches. Jarnkrok has produced 11 points (5 G, 6 A) and 24 shots on goal in the past 14 games and that’s likely helping to maximize his potential value in the trade market.

#9 A 26-year-old who has found his name in trade rumors, Montreal Canadiens winger Artturi Lehkonen has earned a reputation for solid all-around play, but he has also earned a reputation for not finishing his scoring chances. He has yet to match the 18 goals he scored as a rookie in 2016-2017. He is on a hot streak right now, with eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 13 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. That boosts him to 28 points (13 G, 15 A) in 54 games and Lehkonen is closing on his previous career high of 31 points.

#10 Although he left Thursday night’s loss at Florida with an apparent injury, Philadelphia Flyers center Scott Laughton is worth having on your fantasy radar. In his past 15 games, Laughton has delivered 13 points (5 G, 8 A) and 32 shots on goal. He is also good for more than two hits per game so if Laughton is producing offensively, there is a fair chance that his production will be worthy of fantasy interest. With Sean Couturier out for the season and more changes likely to come in Philadelphia, Laughton is also a reasonable bet to have a significant role with the Flyers for the rest of the season (provided that Thursday’s injury is not serious).

#11 Boston Bruins right winger Craig Smith had a relatively slow start to the season, but he has picked up the pace recently, providing secondary offense for a Bruins team that is starting to score more goals. Smith has nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 28 shots on goal in the past eight games.

#12 Among forward lines that have played at least 100 5v5 minutes together this season, the top three in terms of shot rates are all Boston Bruins. Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak have generated 50.9 shots on goal per 60 minutes, ranking ahead of Marchand, Bergeron, and Craig Smith (47.1), as well as Bergeron, Pastrnak, and Taylor Hall (45.3). The Los Angeles Kings trio of Viktor Arvidsson, Phillip Danault, and Trevor Moore (44.2) ranks fourth and the New Jersey Devils line of Andreas Johnsson, Dawson Mercer, and Jesper Bratt (44.1) ranks fifth.

#13 Bringing shot quality into the equation, these are the lines with the highest rate of expected goals per 60 minutes of 5v5 play: Edmonton’s Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid, and Jesse Puljujarvi (4.31 xGF/60), the Kings group of Arvidsson, Danault, and Moore (4.11), Pittsburgh’s Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby, and Evan Rodrigues (4.02), New Jersey’s Pavel Zacha, Nico Hischier, and Jesper Bratt (3.98), and Boston’s Hall, Bergeron, and Pastrnak (3.97).

#14 Dallas Stars blueliner Ryan Suter has started to produce more offensively, coming up with six points (1 G, 5 A) in the past six games, averaging 25:15 of ice time per game in that span. With Miro Heiskanen injured, the Stars have even more need for 37-year-old Suter to play at a high level as they continue to battle for a playoff spot.

#15 When it comes to defenseman and generating shots on goal, three of the top six pairs (minimum 100 5v5 minutes) include Boston Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy. Surely this is a function of McAvoy spending significant time on the ice with the Bergeron line, but McAvoy on the ice with Mike Rielly, Urho Vaakanainen, or Matt Grzelcyk all end up firing pucks at the opposing goal. The top pairing in this regard is Vegas’ Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud (46.4). The Kings’ Alexander Edler and Matt Roy (43.0) and Colorado’s Devon Toews and Samuel Girard (42.5) are the other pairings in the top six.

#16 Adding shot quality to the on-ice impacts of defense pairings, the top pairing is Vegas’ Brayden McNabb and Alex Pietrangelo (3.90 xGF/60), ahead of Hague and Whitecloud (3.85) and then two Toronto pairs featuring Rasmus Sandin, one with Timothy Liljegren (3.70) and one with Travis Dermott (3.60). Carolina’s Jaccob Slavin and Tony DeAngelo (3.47) rounds out the top five.

#17 Since the December schedule pause, there have been 13 goalies that have appeared in at least nine games while recording a save percentage of .919 or better. Some are obviously not going to be sitting on the waiver wire. Igor Shesterkin, Frederik Andersen, Darcy Kuemper, Juuse Saros, Ilya Sorokin, and Jacob Markstrom fall into that group. There are others, though, that remain available in more leagues. That group includes Jeremy Swayman, Anton Forsberg, Ville Husso, Vitek Vanecek, Pavel Francouz, Jake Oettinger, and Semyon Varlamov. Swayman, Vanecek, and Oettinger appear to have earned the starting jobs with their respective clubs.

#18 On the other hand, there are goaltenders in significant roles that have been struggling since the pause. That group includes a bunch that have a save percentage below .895 in at least 10 games played since the schedule pause: Jonathan Quick, Joonas Korpisalo, Chris Driedger, Alexandar Georgiev, Jack Campbell, Mike Smith, Alex Nedeljkovic, Petr Mrazek, Martin Jones, Jon Gillies, Cam Talbot, Philipp Grubauer, Jordan Binnington, Elvis Merzlikins, and Ilya Samsonov. Those are a lot of goaltending fires to put out.

#19 Colorado Avalanche superstar center Nathan MacKinnon has always been able to generate shots on goal, but he has taken his game to a new level since returning from injury in mid-February. In 13 games since, MacKinnon has recorded 79 shots on goal (6.08 per game), more than a full shot per game ahead of second-place Timo Meier (5.00). Alex DeBrincat (4.36), Connor McDavid (4.31), and Patrice Bergeron (4.27) round out the top five in shots on goal per game over the past four weeks.

#20 Since the December schedule pause, the leaders in primary points (goals plus primary assists) per 60 minutes in all situations: Johnny Gaudreau, Jonathan Huberdeau, Kirill Kaprizov, Mason Marchment, Auston Matthews, Matthew Tkachuk, Filip Forsberg, Mitch Marner, Sam Reinhart, and Bryan Rust. Wait, Mason Marchment? It’s true and the 26-year-old is up to 34 points (13 G, 21 A) in 33 games this season.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

NUMBERS AT WORK: Weekly Microstats Highlights and Observations – 11/1/2021

Corey Sznajder — Mon, 01 Nov 2021 15:03:18 +0000

Every Monday, we’re going to take a look at the week that was in the view of microstats. What are microstats? In layman’s terms, they’re stats that are more detailed than what the NHL provides. We know what players are good through shots and Expected Goals, but what are they doing to contribute to that? Are they setting up chances? Generating zone entries? Creating off the rush? Getting the puck out of their zone efficiently? We can explore that with some of these microstats and will do so to kick off every week. Here is a link to some definitions and stats that I track if you want to learn more https://theenergyline.wordpress.com/stats-i-track/

Team of the Week: Calgary Flames

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 6: Calgary Flames Left Wing Matthew Tkachuk (19) in action in the second period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Calgary Flames on March 6, 2021 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

The Flames wreaked havoc on the Metropolitan Division, sweeping a four-game road trip and putting an exclamation mark on it back-to-back shutout wins over Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Calgary was a tough team to get a gauge on heading into the year. Sure, enough can go right for them to make the playoffs but there wasn’t much to get excited about with the team firmly entrenched in good-but-not-great territory.

Their current win streak is a reminder of how good this team can be when they’re firing on all cylinders, and it all starts with Johnny Gaudreau. The Flames star scored his first two goals of the season this past week and while it was nice for him to find the back of the net, there’s so much more he contributes. His ability to create in transition can change the complexion of the game on a dime and we saw that in their 4-0 win against the Penguins. This was an even game in terms of scoring chances (12-12), but the Flames created five scoring chances off zone entries from Gaudreau and it was basically a short highlight reel of what makes him such a special player.

On his first rush, which also led to his goal, we saw him take a pass from Tkachuk in the defensive zone, make a nifty deflection to get the puck away from the Pittsburgh defender and leave everyone in the dust for a mini-breakaway chance. On other plays we saw his great hands on display, weaving around defenders to setup Tkachuk for a chance and making a quick pivot after gaining the line to setup Dillon Dube for the goal that made it 3-0. Attacking in transition might not be the preferred attack for head coach Darryl Sutter, but some freedom is given to Gaudreau here and it makes Calgary a tough team to matchup with when he is on his game.

Let’s not forget the players getting him the puck in these clips either, most notably defenseman Oliver Kylington. The 2015 second round pick spent most of last season on the taxi squad and is now the go-to partner for Christopher Tanev in Calgary’s top-four. The two have posted very strong underlying numbers since being paired together including a dominant performance against a red hot Flyers team on Saturday night. Part of is due to Kylington’s ability to skate out of pressure, giving Tanev a reliable outlet to exit the zone when retrieving pucks or playing tight against forwards at the line. The pace he brings also gives the Flames a different dynamic to their back-end, which has no shortage of great skaters but not much speed to go with it. Kylington having only two failed exits on 22 puck attempts over the three games tracked this week should also help him earn the trust of the coaching staff as he looks to stay in a high leverage role full-time.

The other player getting Gaudreau the puck in these clips we should focus on is Matthew Tkachuk. Known for being the ultimate pest, Tkachuk earns his keep on the top line with Gaudreau by doing the legwork in the defensive zone, generating 13 zone exits over the three games tracked on 15 attempts. It’s helped free up some space for Gaudreau to cheat for offense if he needs to and get behind the defense. We often think of Tkachuk as a nuisance and a net-front presence, but there is more that comes with playing along the boards than just retrieving dump-ins or mucking things up in front of the goalie. Getting the puck out of your zone and being a reliable outlet for your defense can yield great results when you’re on a line with guys who excel in transition like Gaudreau.

Another thing that you need on a line is a great F3, which is where Elias Lindholm has thrived in Calgary. Lindholm’s always been an interesting player to breakdown because he doesn’t generate much in volume in terms of microstats. His numbers are typically average across the board with him being more efficient with his limited puck touches. With Gaudreau getting most of the puck touches and Tkachuk being the first forechecker on dump-ins, Lindholm will often defer to his linemates and watch where the play goes to jump on loose pucks. Tied for the team lead in goals with seven, Lindholm’s shot will always be his best asset and he is the ideal high forward on a line for what Gaudreau and Tkachuk bring. Their skill and creativity lead to a lot of loose pucks and coverage lapses, so a player with Lindholm’s skill doesn’t need much to take advantage of these situations. We saw a lot of this in Calgary’s win over Philadelphia, with Lindholm contribution to 10 of Calgary’s 5v5 shots, including six secondary assists (a very high mark for a forward).

We’ve seen teams have hot starts before, so it remains to be seen if Calgary can sustain this and be a team that will be around come May. That said, give credit where it’s due. They’ve made the most out of a tough schedule and have a legit first line to go with some strong goaltending from Jacob Markstrom. Being a Sutter coached team, their bottom-nine should be in good shape defensively, which will complement their top line well. The question is whether or not they can get enough depth scoring to keep up with the rest of the division in the coming weeks. They’ve gotten some of that from Andrew Mangiapane, who is stuck on the fourth line even though he has seven goals. Sean Monahan scored his first goal of the season on the power play the other night and Blake Coleman is coming off a strong road trip, so there is room for improvement here. Either way, Calgary’s finds themselves in a great spot at first place in the Pacific through eight games.

Microstats Three Stars:

Nathan MacKinnon vs. Wild (4 shots, 1 chance, 9 setups, 7 primary assists, 6 5v5 zone entries, 5 entries w/ possession, 2 entries leading to chances, 5 zone exits w/ possession, 4 power play shots, 2 power play setups)

MacKinnon’s overall production was a little modest for his standards (only two assists and one scoring chance assist), but his work in transition was on another level in this game. Rewatching the clips was a stark reminder of how much of a low-percentage game hockey is because he could have had a couple more points had it not been for some great saves by Cam Talbot. His speed and explosiveness are usually what makes him such a lethal player in transition. This game was more about his power, as he was knocking over defenders to win the puck or boxing himself out for a better shot. Some of the players on the wrong end of his highlight reel include Joel Eriksson Ek (excellent defender), Jonas Brodin (great defenseman) and Dmitry Kulikov (very strong human).

Thomas Chabot vs. Caps and Stars (9 shots, 3 chances, 8 shot assists, 3 primary assists, 3 chance assists, 10 entries, 2 carries, 4 entries leading to chances, 7 zone exits with possession)

The Sens defenseman had a puck on a string in their wild 7-5 loss to the Capitals last Monday night. One way or another, the play kept coming back to him and he made the most of it by contributing to 17 of Ottawa’s shots. Known more for his breakouts and high workload, Chabot showed how lethal he is offensively, getting a ton of space on the left point and taking advantage of the open ice Washington kept giving him. Acting as the point guard, the power forward and the three-point shooter, Chabot had to wear a lot of hats to get Ottawa back into their shootout with Washington (and he almost did).

Sasha Barkov vs. Detroit (4 shots, 3 chances, 8 shot assists, 4 primary assists, 8 entries, 6 entries w/ possession, 3 entries leading to chances, 2 exits w/ possession)

Sometimes you’ll watch a guy for a couple of shifts and be like “yeah, that’s a good hockey player.” This sums up Sasha Barkov to a T and he had his full highlight reel on display in Friday night’s tilt against Detroit. Two goals, both coming right in front of the crease, rush offense created through hard work and powerful lower body strength and terrific work from behind the goal line to keep plays alive. It didn’t always result in quality chances, but the sustained possession wears teams down and created favorable shifts for the second and third lines. A good example is the zone exit Barkov created by winning the puck along the boards to setup a chance for Sam Bennett, who changed for him later in the shift. Barkov is one of those players who doesn’t need a lot of puck touches to be effective, but he is borderline impossible to matchup against when he takes the wheel like this.

What’s Wrong With….?

VANCOUVER, BC - OCTOBER 26: Minnesota Wild left wing Kirill Kaprizov (97) skates up ice during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on October 26, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

Kirill Kaprizov

Kirill has not provided much thrill for Wild fans (or fantasy hockey players) in this first month, notching only six assists and posting some troubling underlying stats to boot. Now, when a player is slumping the first thing everyone does is look to see if he’s getting chances. With microstats, we can look at it further to see what else they are doing to contributing even if it isn’t showing up on the scoresheet. What does this mean for Kaprizov’s underwhelming start?

With him, it’s tough to figure out because he’s averaging about three shots per game and still getting his assists, which should mean things are fine. The problem is where the shots are coming from, mostly from the perimeter. However, this isn’t anything new for him and what made him such a lethal player last year was how he could create on his own and score from distance (especially in the high slot). He’s also versatile in that he can score off the rush and on sustained offense, the latter being where he’s the most dangerous. Watching his game against Colorado, he can still create his own space in the neutral zone (six carries on nine attempts), but the passing options aren’t there. Nor are the second and third opportunities.

There are a lot of solo rushes and plays that either die off a missed point shot or Kaprizov having to create on his own from not having much help around him. Some of that might relate to linemates, as both Joel Eriksson Ek and Marcus Foligno are good players, but they do their damage from in front of the net, so it might be easier for defenders to focus on Kaprizov if the two of them are going to the same area. Getting Mats Zuccarello back in the lineup could solve some of the Wild’s problems here, but it looks like a fixable problem in the long run. Part of Kaprizov’s game is still there, which is being able to create space through the neutral zone and that should lead to more points for him. The goal-scoring issue, however, could be more of a problem, as him shooting at 17% like he did in his rookie year is tough to sustain for anyone.

Rookie Watch:

Connor McMichael

We all know Trevor Zegras, Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, so I wanted to give a shoutout to an under the radar rookie, Connor McMichael, who has looked excellent playing on Washington’s second line with TJ Oshie and Anthony Mantha. The production hasn’t been there for the kid yet, but all signs point to a breakout with him being second on the team in scoring chances at 5v5 and third in chance setups. He has also been one of their more opportunistic players on zone entries, with the Caps generating a chance on 33% of his entries. He’s been setup well, playing an offensive role with good linemates so it will be interesting to see if he can sustain it with Oshie sidelined for a while.