Josh Anderson – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – MONTREAL CANADIENS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Fri, 10 Oct 2025 15:00:05 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 05: Montreal Canadiens right wing Cole Caufield (13) skates in warm ups before a Los Angeles Kings game versus the Montreal Canadiens on February 5th, 2025, at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire)

For the past couple of years, the anticipation that’s built around the Canadiens rebuild and wondering when they’d finally emerge came to fruition. Montreal finished with the second wild card after putting up 91 points, a 15-point improvement from the previous year, and held off Columbus and Detroit for the final playoff spot and their first playoff berth since they went to the Stanley Cup Final in 2021. On paper, the Canadiens numbers weren’t exactly electrifying. At five-on-five they had the fifth lowest CorsiFor and expected goals for percentages. They allowed the eighth most goals at five-on-five and were tied for 18th in goals scored. Their power play was 21st in the league but they had the ninth best penalty kill. A great season from starting goalie Samuel Montembeault (.902 save percentage, four shutouts) was a key reason for their success and backup Jakub Dobes (7-4-3, .909 save percentage) made Cayden Primeau expendable. They were also buoyed by an incredible Calder Trophy-winning season from defenceman Lane Hutson who had 66 points and was third on the team in scoring behind 30-goal scorers Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.

What’s Changed?

Montreal was able to leverage their cap space and draft assets to make one of the biggest moves of the summer. The Canadiens acquired defenceman Noah Dobson in a sign-and-trade deal from the New York Islanders for Emil Heineman and two 2025 first-round picks. Dobson signed an eight-year, $76 million extension and by adding Dobson, the Canadiens have yet another high-end puck-moving offensive defenceman to go with Hutson. Coach Martin St. Louis likes his team to play high-intensity, fast hockey to get up and down the ice and with Hutson and Dobson they can do that much more often. As big as the Dobson move was, the rest of the summer was quiet. Defenceman Logan Mailloux was sent to St. Louis for promising forward Zack Bolduc and goalie Cayden Primeau was traded to Carolina for a pick. They also added forwards Samuel Blais and Joseph Veleno on one-year deals.

What Would Success Look Like?

If the Canadiens can continue where they left off last season and use their playoff appearance against Washington to spur them forward into perhaps a battle for second or third place in the Atlantic Division, that would show the path they’ve carved out in this rebuild continues to be the right one. While they’ve got aspects of their game to clean up all around, getting high-end performances from Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson, Dobson, Juraj Slafkovský and Patrik Laine again would make a very exciting team infinitely more dangerous to play against. Whether it’s Montembeault or Dobes who take control in net might be worth keeping an eye on, but the balance struck last season worked well. Montreal’s style of play and high-end talent make them exciting and if that can all be honed more, this is a team that can be frustrating for years to come.

What Could Go Wrong?

Montreal seemed to win despite having average-to-below-average shot and expected goal numbers and if the good fortune and goaltending that allowed them to buck those trends fails them, they’ll be in a battle to try and make the postseason in what could be a very crowded field, particularly in the Atlantic. Between Ottawa, Detroit, Buffalo, Boston, Columbus, the New York Rangers and Islanders, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, things get messy fast in the East. Any slip-ups and losing streaks can dunk a team in the bottom of the standings and make up ground when everyone is so even is extremely difficult. Suzuki and Caufield must lead the pace while Slafkovský continue to press forward in his own development as a power forward. The balance between Dobson and Hutson bears watching too. Chemistry will be tested.

Top Breakout Candidate

With all the young talent in Montreal to watch, the biggest one to keep an eye on this season is Ivan Demidov. The Canadiens first-round pick in 2024, fifth overall, left his team in Russia last season and joined the team late in the regular season and playoffs. In two games he had a goal and an assist and in five playoff games against the Capitals he had two assists. At 6-foot-1, 190 pounds he’s a handful to defend with his moves, speed and skills. Plugging him into Montreal’s top six forward group makes this exciting team even more fascinating to watch. Expect more Calder hype to come for Demidov, he’ll be a blast to watch.

FORWARDS

Nick Suzuki

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	33	57	90	1.10

The leader of Montreal’s surge to the playoffs, Nick Suzuki turned a lot of heads last season. After years of debates of whether he can be a 1C on a contending team, he carried Montreal’s offence on his back to get them from a lottery team to a playoff spot. How good was he? His point-pace after the Four Nations break would put him in company with some of the league’s elites. Getting on the scoresheet every night and seeing his responsibility with his ice-time reaching 21 minutes a game by March. Always a workhorse in the defensive zone and in the transition game, Suzuki’s offence reaching the next level was always a work in progress. Something clicked the last two season with him shooting the puck more and playing with more pace off the rush. Areas where he’s improved the most is playing the give-and-go game and creating more sustained offence. Last season was the most shots per 60 minutes he created off the cycle in his career, as most of his offence was primarily off the rush in previous seasons. This is what can make a great playmaker like him turn into an elite one, as it’s tougher to create chances when the game isn’t open and space is hard to come by. Suzuki took a huge step in improving his game here and it bodes well for him long-term. Repeating what he did in the second half will be difficult, but the Habs don’t have any questions of who to build their roster around now.

Cole Caufield

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	42	34	76	0.93

While Suzuki was the engine of Montreal’s run to the playoffs, Caufield was the motor all season long. He reaped some of the benefits of Suzuki’s playmaking as a small, pure shooter who gets lost in the weeds of the offensive zone. Doesn’t always need great setups to score, but his own play is enhanced when surrounded by elite playmaking. He led the NHL in shots off high danger passes last season, which was a product of his linemates and Caufield’s own instincts as a goal-scorer. Helped him become a high-20’s goal guy to someone who could push 40 over multiple seasons. The nice thing about Caufield is his game isn’t one-dimensional, and he doesn’t always need to be the shooter. Him, Suzuki and Slafkovksy did a great job of reading off each other and Caufield added another wrinkle to his game by passing from areas that he typically shoots from, giving his linemates tap-in chances for easy goals. He’s also grown as a player who can help drive the play in the neutral zone, gaining more confidence with making plays across the line rather than chipping it in. The only area where his size has set him back is as a defensive player. He’s not a good enough puck-carrier to dodge forecheckers and can have shifts where he’s stuck in his own zone when he’s the one leading the exit. It’s something Monteral can live with if he produces like he did last season. Caufield is one of the league’s young stars and entering his prime.

Juraj Slavkovsky

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	27	34	61	0.75

While his point total might not show it, those who watch Montreal will tell you Slafkovsky turned a corner this past season. Moved to the top line, Slafkovsky reaped the benefits of playing with the Habs two best players and finally showed some high-level skill. He was one of the best forwards in the league at setting up high danger passes, using that long reach to win pucks behind the goal line and showing the finesse that got him drafted first overall. He was also a critical piece in the defensive zone, taking some of the heat off Suzuki starting most of the breakouts and giving them a little more stability than Caufield did with getting pucks out. It’s still hard to say if he’s a future star or a third wheel on the top line because most of the skills he is rated best at are better utilized when paired with an elite talent. A good example being how most of his shots came off deflections and one-timers and how most of his setups were from behind the goal line or across the slot. Those are great qualities to have, but not the most repeatable on a year-to-year basis if you’re not going to be with the same linemates. That said, Slafkovsky progressed in the skills that are more repeatable too. His ability to gain the zone with control has improved dramatically since his rookie year. His shot assist rate is also climbing to a first line level after two seasons of bad to mediocre numbers. Slafkovsky is more involved in the play in general and Montreal is hoping that he will keep adding to his toolbox next season. He’s setup nicely to be a contributor on the top line, but taking the next step to becoming someone who can drive his own line is what you want to see from him as he gets older.

Zack Bolduc

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	24	18	42	0.56

The Blues moving on from Bolduc was a little surprising even if they weren’t expecting him to sustain a goal scoring pace of 16 percent. He had somewhat of a roller coaster rookie season with 19 goals despite multiple games as a healthy scratch and inconsistent deployment. The St. Louis top six isn’t an easy group to break into, and the deck was stacked against him with Jake Neighbours scoring more and locking down one of those spots. Combine that with the team wanting to put newcomer Jimmy Snuggerud on the top line and Bolduc might have become expendable. He’s an intriguing player, who isn’t big but uses his upper body well to separate himself from defenders to get to pucks first. His wrist shot is hard, deceptive and he’s very good at using his body to “catch” pucks in the slot and settle them down from there. Uses his feet well to chase down pucks and he’s very quick at making passes along the wall, both to set up shots and help exit the zone. The Blues liked him enough to use him in the bumper spot on the power play, where he scored seven of his goals. He has a lot of tools Montreal can use as a deceptive scorer in the middle of the roster. He has the most balanced all-around skillset of the players he’s competing with for a top six spot and his track record of scoring on lower lines should also give him an edge.

Patrik Laine

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
55	20	17	37	0.67

Looking to restart his career, Laine’s season almost began on a disastrous note after taking a brutal knee-on-knee collision in his first preseason game. Thankfully, he didn’t require surgery, and his first year in Montreal was what you would expect from the young Finn. Recording yet another 20-goal season with 15 of them coming on the power play, there wasn’t much that changed with Laine. He’s always going to score at 30+ goal pace but will rarely ever play 82 games and his five-on-five play is always going to be erratic. For as much as he likes to shoot the puck on the power play, he deferred to the point a lot when playing at even strength and only shot unless he could get himself set up for a great chance. The quality over quantity approach isn’t a bad thing, but taking things to an extreme degree has been the problem with Laine over his career. He likes being the first player on the puck in the defensive zone to skate it out but has never been good when having to fight a forechecker for it, getting knocked off the play and turning it over frequently. He’s never been a fast player and knee injuries have made him look like he is skating on concrete at times, which limits his game to that of a one-dimensional power play specialist. He might have a grace period with all the injuries he’s battled, but there is going to be some heat for his roster spot next season with rookie Ivan Demidov and newcomer Zach Bolduc in the fold now.

Kirby Dach

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	15	17	32	0.46

The lanky centerman is still an unfinished product and Montreal still doesn’t know what they have in him with Dach spending more time on injured reserve than on the ice. A torn ACL cost him his entire 2023-24 season, and he was limited to only 54 games last season after having surgery on his knee again. He’s a tall player who can skate fluidly and protect the puck well. Using his teammates has been his drawback, has he has tunnel vision in the offensive zone, and the game slows down for him to a troubling degree after he gains the line. He is very deliberate with his decision making both off the rush and on cycles, but he isn’t precise with his passing and a lot of plays die on his stick. He tried to make up for it last season by playing more of a net-front role alongside Alex Newhook and Patrik Laine, which was a fit stylistically with Dach using his big body as a screen. Converting on rebounds was the challenge for him, as it would take him a couple of tries to finally locate the puck when it was loose around the net. Possibly still feeling the effects of a broken wrist that happened early in his career. The stop-start nature to Dach’s career has made it tough to properly evaluate him and the multiple knee surgeries aren’t going to help some of his issues with acceleration and getting away from defenders. He has shown flashes of brilliance with Montreal as recently as two years ago, but it’s hard to say if he can regain that form.

Alex Newhook

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	13	15	28	0.34

Taking fliers on former first round picks from other teams has provided the Habs with mixed results. The journey of Alex Newhook best exemplifies that. He shows flashes of being a special player and it’s usually when the table is set for him by his linemates. When he skates downhill from high in the offensive zone, he’s got one of the more dangerous shots on the Habs. The puck snaps right off his stick with a lot of elevation and accuracy. When his linemates drive the lane, he can make beautiful cross-seam passes and change the complexion of the game. Newhook can do enough to carry a third line but struggles when the game gets difficult and he has to make more plays under duress. He usually defers to his linemates at the first sign of pressure and doesn’t like to challenge the defence to risk a turnover. The safe style of play earns you some trust with the coaching staff, but it’s also frustrating to watch when you see glimpses of game-breaking skill from Newhook. He showed some signs of improving that last season, carrying the puck more and posting shot and scoring chance contribution rates that were around the league average. Becoming a threat on the power play has been the other challenge with him scoring only one goal with the man advantage all season despite consistent deployment on the second unit. Now 25, a skilled low-producing depth player might be all Newhook is, but he always shows just enough to make you want more.

Brendan Gallagher

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	18	15	33	0.44

A mainstay in the Habs lineup for over a decade, Gallagher has a more important role in the locker room than he does on the ice, but last year was a return to form. While injuries have plagued the back half of his career, he is coming off his first 20-goal season in five years while playing mostly on the lower lines and second power play unit. Gallagher still plays the same, gritty style he always has. A pest by nature, he’s always around the net and taking a few extra pokes at the loose puck after the whistle just to stir the pot. This is part of why he’s had so many injury problems, as he’s eaten a lot of cross-checks in front of the net over the years. This is despite him not being that old at 32 years old, but with more miles logged and harder minutes. He formed an effective line with Josh Anderson for most of the season, the duo playing a straight-head game and doing an excellent job of driving play. They don’t score as much as they should for how many chances they get from close range, but they’re done with more brute force than finesse. Gallagher’s season was somewhat of a saving grace for Montreal with their need for more productive depth players. With how straight-ahead his game is, staying healthy will be key for Gallagher sustaining this level of play.

Josh Anderson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	16	13	29	0.37

Josh Anderson is one of the few players you could describe as a runaway train and have it be considered a backhanded compliment. He is a huge forward who skates like a bullet and makes a beeline for the net regardless of if he has the puck. He’s noticeable with how quick and powerful he skates and how many shots he takes. You also notice how he never looks to pass to teammates, lets chances go to waste by shooting into the goalie’s crest and how often he turns the puck over while trying to bolt out of his own zone. If there is such a thing as a one-way player, Anderson fits the description because his positive traits are all related to shooting and speed. He was one of the Habs best forwards at scoring chances at even strength despite having the lowest shot assist rate on the team. It’s also made him regularly deployed on the penalty kill, where he’s only out there to create shorthanded rushes and keep other power plays honest. Some of his flaws were covered by playing on a line with Brendan Gallagher last season, as the duo were a positive line for the Habs thanks to Gallagher’s knack for generating second chances and creating sustained possessions, so all of Anderson’s rushes weren’t of the one-and-done variety. Montreal values Anderson’s size and speed, so he will continue to be a trusted member of their forward corps.

DEFENCE

Lane Hutson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	11	64	75	0.91

The early part of last season was all about letting Lane Hutson cook. They gave the young blue-liner free reign to do whatever he wanted with the puck, letting him control the cycle from the outside and dissect the coverage from up high. It took a couple months for the results to show, but he was one of the most productive blue-liners in the league during the second half. If there was anything it proved it was that Hutson is a quick study because he learned his teammates' tendencies well and got better at reading off them as the season went on. His footwork makes it difficult to challenge him high in the zone, frequently making defenders miss and if he got any room, he could easily get the puck to the net or find someone open within a second. Leaving him alone is also dangerous because he excels at getting shots through and shooting for deflections. His game in the defensive zone is ahead of his years, handling the bulk of the work on puck retrievals and using his stick to disrupt rush chances well. Hutson doesn’t trust his defensive game to the point where he can aggressively challenge forwards yet, so he makes up for it by playing deeper in the zone and letting the play come to him. We will see if he changes this part of his game now that teams can pick up on his tendencies. His play with the puck, however, is very tough to prepare for and the sky should be the limit as Montreal’s forwards continue to improve.

Noah Dobson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	12	42	54	0.68

After enjoying one season as one of the league’s highest scoring defencemen, Dobson didn’t get the same level of puck luck on assists this past season and saw his point total take a drastic fall. Not that scoring is the only thing Dobson brings to the table. He’s a rangy, mobile defenceman who can get you out of the zone quickly and log heavy minutes. The burden he carried on the Isles defence corps proved to be a little too much last season, as the team got heavily outscored with him on the ice at five-on-five. This made fans notice his flaws more than the things that made him special. The turnovers are pointed out more instead of the subtle plays with the puck. You see him missing the net with the booming slapshot more than you notice how smoothly he plays the fourth forward role with joining the rush. He is a high-risk/high-reward defenceman by nature, so it’s understandable that he can be a lighting rod when things aren’t going well. That pressure likely won’t be going away now that he is Montreal’s undisputed number one defenceman. On paper, he complements young Lane Hutson nicely. They can both skate and split the workload in the defensive zone on puck retrievals. The hope is that they don’t have to spend too much time in their own zone defending because the potential for them to be a high-octane offensive-D pair is really exciting to think about. Players like Dobson don’t come along very often, especially at only 25 years old, so this raises the bar very high for an ascending Habs squad.

Mike Matheson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	6	23	29	0.37

While Hutson was still getting used to the NHL, Matheson played the role of Montreal’s top defenceman by default. He has the physical tools and the endurance to play the minutes, but not the awareness to handle the workload. Spending so much of your shifts in the defensive zone takes its toll on your body after awhile and Matheson felt the effects of it in some games. He’s an explosive, puck-rushing defenceman by nature and was pigeonholed into more of a defensive role with Habs short on proven options. Montreal even tried pairing Hutson with Matheson for a brief spell before forming a shutdown pair with midseason acquisition Alex Carrier. The duo did a good job of keeping the puck out of their net but had to put out a lot of fires in their own zone. Which goes back to Matheson being asked to do too much as the team’s do-it-all defenceman last season. The weight is going to be taken off him next year with Noah Dobson in the fold and Hutson stepping up on the top-pair. It likely spells the end of him getting power play time in Montreal and his role possibly being shifted to more of a defensive specialist with heavy minutes on the penalty kill. Matheson’s skating and ability to be a one-man breakout is always going to keep him in the top four, it’s just a question of if he’ll perform better in a lesser role.

GOAL

Samuel Montembeault

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
58	29	20	7	4	.903	2.85

It could be easy to criticize what the Montreal Canadiens are doing in net at the moment. As they enter the final year of Carey Price's albatross contract, five full years after his last NHL appearance for the club, their options in net are a former mid-tier Florida Panthers prospect, a 24-year old who split last season between the big club and AHL's Laval, and former Minnesota Wild draft pick Kaapo Kahkonen - who served as a backup for the Wild, then the San Jose Sharks, before getting claimed off waivers twice last year and then getting traded. As much as Sam Montembeault, Jakub Dobes, and Kahkonen might seem like a motley crew of cast-off toys, though, they could be the first trio of roster figures Montreal has strung together in net in years that won't cause fans to hold their breath in nervous anticipation. Montembeault's numbers last year looked just barely better than league average, but he managed to maintain those over one of the league's heaviest workloads - and his more situational analytics have slowly been trending upward with each year that he's given more responsibility. Dobes did an admiral job stepping up as well, splitting the net with Montembeault in the postseason to give him both regular season and playoff NHL experience to take into next year. And Kahkonen, while on an admittedly wild ride the last handful of seasons, provides the perfect opportunity for Dobes to start the year getting plenty of reps in the AHL to warm up for the back half of the season; it's not the flashiest trio in the league, but it seems perfectly built to keep Montreal battling for playoff contention for yet another year.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – MONTREAL CANADIENS – Team Preview

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 16:00:58 +0000

_{MONTREAL, QC - NOVEMBER 30: Juraj Slafkovsky (20) of the Montreal Canadiens skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Florida Panthers and the Montreal Canadiens on November 30 2023, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC(Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)}

2023-24 was another rebuilding year for the Canadiens, but they did make progress, posting a 30-36-16 record -- their best showing in terms of PTS% since their surprising trip to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2021. Perhaps more importantly, the core for Montreal’s next window is starting to take shape. Cole Caufield (28 goals, 65 points) and Juraj Slafkovsky (20 goals, 50 points) both made significant strides last season to establish themselves along with Nick Suzuki (33 goals, 77 points) as the main pillars of the young forward group. Meanwhile, Kaiden Guhle is fast becoming a legitimate top four defenceman while Cayden Primeau and Sam Montembeault are starting to look like a capable goaltending duo. It’s a good foundation for the Canadiens to build on top of.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Speaking of that foundation, Montreal helped cement it over the summer by signing Slafkovsky to an eight-year, $60.8 million contract that will begin with the 2025-26 campaign. The Canadiens also handed Guhle a six-year, $33.3 million extension that also starts in 2025-26. Montreal had already previously locked up Suzuki and Caufield to $7.875 million and $7.85 million annual cap hits, respectively, so the team’s done an excellent job of locking up talent to team-friendly deals. In terms of big additions on the trade or unrestricted free agent markets, though, Montreal had a quiet offseason.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? It will be tough for Montreal to squeak into the playoffs in 2024-25 as a member of the hyper-competitive Atlantic Division, but not impossible. Slafkovsky might take another step forward this season, a healthy Dach (he was limited to two games in 2023-24) would provide the squad with some badly needed secondary scoring. If those offensive gains are married with further growth from Primeau, then Montreal might look pretty good this season.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? However, Montreal’s depth isn’t really there yet. Sure, the addition of Patrik Laine at the deadline will help if he can stay healthy and find his 30-40 goal form. Slafkovsky, Caufield and Suzuki also give them three great scoring options, and defenceman Michael Matheson is coming off a fantastic 62-point campaign, but who else on the Canadiens is a good bet to record even 40 points? Dach? If he’s healthy, probably, but unfortunately injuries have been a recurring problem for him beyond just the 2023-24 campaign. Newhook? The potential is certainly there and might be their best bet, though the 23-year-old hasn’t done it yet, so he’s no sure thing. Keep in mind that the average team last year had 6.2 players provide at least 40 points, so even if Laine, Dach and Newhook all work out, and Montreal’s top forwards all stay healthy, that might only elevate Montreal’s offence to average. In a division as tough as the Atlantic, that might not cut it.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Perhaps defenceman Lane Hutson should be included in the conversation for Canadiens players who might hit 40 points in 2024-25. He’s coming off a fantastic campaign in which he had 15 goals and 49 points in 38 contests with Boston University before concluding things with two assists in two outings for the Canadiens. The offensive upside is absolutely there for the 20-year-old, though expectations should be tempered for his rookie campaign, in part because he’s unlikely to have a role on Montreal’s top power-play unit.

FORWARD

Nick Suzuki

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	32	48	80	0.98

Back in Oct. 2021 when Suzuki had 28 goals and 82 points across 127 NHL games on his resume, Montreal decided to bet on his continued development by locking him up to an eight-year, $63 million contract that didn’t start until the 2022-23 campaign. If Suzuki had struggled to take that next step, then that contract would have looked like an overpay, but as it is, his $7.875 million cap hit is quickly becoming a steal. Suzuki set career highs last season with 33 goals and 77 points in 82 appearances. Although he finished with a minus-14 rating as a byproduct of playing for a rebuilding team, his relative 5v5 CF%/FF% were plus-5.5/5.6, which suggests Montreal performed far better when he was on the ice than off it. Perhaps that’s why he finished 13th in Selke Trophy voting for 2023-24 despite that poor plus/minus rating. It also helps that he’s made strides on the draw, winning 689 of his faceoffs for a 52.6 percent success rate. That marks the first time he’s won more faceoffs than he’s lost. The 25-year-old isn’t much of a physical presence, but that’s a mild criticism to lay on Suzuki in the face of what he brings to the table. The Ontario native figures to be an excellent top-line center for the Canadiens for many years to come.

Cole Caufield

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	36	32	68	0.83

Caufield has taken a bit to fully come into his own. He was wildly inconsistent in 2021-22, though part of that can be written off as him not gelling with former coach Dominique Ducharme, and he missed nearly half of the 2022-23 campaign. By contrast, Caufield was relatively steady last season and played the full 82 games, resulting in him setting career highs with 28 goals and 65 points. He also finished with a minus-4 rating, which isn’t bad as a member of a rebuilding squad, and his relative 5v5 CF%/FF% of plus-4.2/4.0 backs up the idea that Montreal was in a far better all-around position when he was on the ice. That’s despite the 5-foot-8 winger bringing very little to the table in terms of physicality. One interesting aspect of his game in 2023-24 was him firing 314 shots -- the seventh most in the league -- but having that counterbalanced by a career-worst 8.9 shooting percentage. Caufield’s bread-and-butter in terms of goals was shots right in front of the net. Outside of that, he found very little success with his shots, which is in stark contrast to 2022-23 when he had a 16.0 percent success rate on what the NHL defines as mid-range shots compared to the league average of 9.0. So it might be that luck simply wasn’t on Caufield’s side last season, which lends credence to the idea that he could reach even greater heights in 2024-25.

Patrik Laine

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
68	32	31	63	0.93

Laine will get a fresh start after being acquired by Montreal from Columbus, but what will he do with that opportunity? Unfortunately for Laine, what happens next might be outside of his control. The 26-year-old is coming off an especially difficult campaign in which he was limited to 18 games due to a combination of injuries and time in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. However, he also saw a decline in ice time and even served as a healthy scratch, underlining how rough his situation became in Columbus. Whatever else he is, Laine is still an amazing goal scorer, and getting him gives Montreal options. The Canadiens could go with their super line of Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, leaving Laine to headline the second line, or they could seek to spread out those four high-end offensive threats over two units. However, that’ll only be possible when Laine is healthy, bringing us to the part that’s out of his control. Although 2023-24 was particularly rough, Laine has a significant injury history, so it’s valid to wonder how much he’ll play. In a best-case scenario, though, would see a return to his 2017-18 form of 44 goals and 70 points.

Brendan Gallagher

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	14	16	30	0.39

Montreal has some great young forwards locked up to team-friendly contracts, but that’s counterbalanced by Gallagher. He still has three campaigns left on his six-year, $39 million contract, and there’s an argument to be made that he’s one of the biggest overpays in the league. Gallagher exceeded the 30-goal milestone in back-to-back campaigns in 2017-18 and 2018-19, but he hasn’t gotten more than 22 goals since, and he hasn’t even reached the 40-point mark past 2019-20. Most recently, Gallagher provided 16 goals, 31 points, a minus-24 rating and 4 PIM in 77 outings in 2023-24. Now 32 years old, the Canadiens have resigned to using him sparingly, as demonstrated by his average of 13:47 of ice time last season. At least he can do alright when Montreal picks his spots. Although he doesn’t have a size advantage at 5-foot-9, he’ll still play with an edge, and his relative CF%/FF% was a respectable plus-5.8/5.7 last season, which suggests he was an asset when on the ice despite what his horrid plus/minus might tell you. So, if you strictly look at him in the context of being a middle-six role player, then Gallagher is a perfectly serviceable option. It’s just that $6.5 million cap hit of his that sticks out like a sore thumb and given that he’s unlikely to recapture his former scoring glory, his contract will continue to be problematic.

Josh Anderson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	11	15	26	0.35

Anderson provides grit, but not a whole lot else. Sure, he did score 27 goals and 47 points across 82 contests as a member of the Blue Jackets back in 2018-19, but that season appears to have been an anomaly from an offensive standpoint. Now with Montreal, Anderson collected nine goals, 20 points, 74 PIM and 169 hits in 2023-24. Even ignoring the 2018-19 campaign, he is capable of doing more offensively than he demonstrated last year -- he finished each of 2021-22 and 2022-23 with 32 points -- so an uptick in scoring this season wouldn’t be surprising. Even if that happens, though, Montreal will be primarily paying him to utilize his size. He’ll do that primarily as a middle-six forward, but he also saw some time on a line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield last season, and there’s certainly some merit to having the big guy out there to create space for Montreal’s skilled forward, so we should see that arrangement from time-to-time again this year. The main x-factor here is Anderson’s health. The Ontario native managed to avoid any major injuries last year, but that hasn’t always been the case -- he's reached the 70-game mark just three times in his career -- so Montreal might be put in a position where they’ll have to make do without Anderson for a significant chunk of 2024-25.

Joel Armia

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
73	16	14	30	0.41

Armia had 17 goals and 25 points in 66 contests last season, and for him, that’s a rather successful campaign. He averaged just 12:22 of ice time at even strength last season while serving primarily in a bottom-six capacity, but he logged a considerable 2:53 per game on the penalty kill. Taken as a whole, Armia is a fine defensive player, but despite being 6-foot-3, 216 pounds, he’s not a major physical presence -- at least not anymore. He did surpass the 100-hit mark in three of four campaigns from 2018-19 through 2021-22, but he was credited for just 49 hits last year, so it seems the 31-year-old has pulled back from that aspect of his game. Armia has one season left on his four-year, $13.6 million contract, so it will be interesting to see if the Finnish forward does a bit better this year while fighting for his next deal, but it’s not likely to make that much of a difference. Armia will continue to provide some value for the Canadiens in a way that doesn’t show up much on the stats sheet.

Alex Newhook

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	16	30	46	0.60

Montreal tried to accelerate their path to competitive hockey when they dealt two draft picks and prospect Gianni Fairbrother to Colorado in exchange for the then 22-year-old Newhook in June of 2023. Taken with the No. 16 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, Newhook was seen as having top-six potential but wasn’t getting that opportunity in Colorado. In his first campaign with the Canadiens, Newhook missed a significant chunk of time due to an ankle injury but did show some promise when healthy, scoring 15 goals and 34 points across 55 contests. He averaged a healthy 16:56 of ice time, including 3:02 with the man advantage, which led to him recording eight power-play points. However, he didn’t often share the ice at even strength with Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki or Cole Caufield. Although it’s possible that trio of young skilled forwards will primarily play together this year while Newhook headlines the second line, it would be interesting if the Canadiens spread out their offense a bit more, and such a move would likely be to Newhook’s benefit, so it’s worth keeping an eye on those line combinations during training camp. Whatever path Montreal takes, Newhook is brimming with potential and should take a significant step forward in 2024-25 if he stays healthy.

Jake Evans

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	8	22	30	0.37

Evans is a great third or fourth-line center who can also be leaned on heavily in shorthanded situations. He provided seven goals and 28 points in 82 contests last season. He also had a minus-one rating, which isn’t bad given the rebuilding squad he’s playing for, though his relative 5v5 CF%/FF% of minus-2.5/-3.2 tells a less appealing story about his play at even strength. On the plus side, he won 593 draws, leading to a respectable 52.2 percent success rate on the draw. He also blocked 65 shots, which is quite a bit for a forward. Now 28 years old, Evans is what he is. The Ontario native isn’t going to make headlines, but he will fulfill his role capably. It’s worth remembering that he’s in the final season of his three-year, $5.1 million contract, and he’s the type of depth forward contending teams take an interest in during the trade deadline. If Montreal isn’t competing for a playoff spot by that time, it would make a lot of sense for Evans to be traded.

Juraj Slafkovsky

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	25	38	63	0.77

Montreal locked up Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield to long-term contracts before they firmly established what they would become. It was a risky decision, but it paid off with each of those deals now looking awfully team-friendly, so naturally the Canadiens took the same approach by inking Slafkovsky to an eight-year, $60.8 million contract that won’t even begin until 2025-26. Selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, that $7.6 million annual cap hit might end up looking like a steal, especially with the cap starting to go up at a meaningful pace. However, that’s assuming he continues to make strides after an encouraging 2023-24 campaign. He had 20 goals, 50 points, 55 PIM, 71 blocks and 152 hits in 82 contests last season. Unlike Suzuki and Caufield, who offer plenty of skill, but not much grit, Slafkovsky has the makings of a power forward at 6-foot-3, 230 pounds. He spent most of his even-strength minutes in 2023-24 on the ice with Caufield and Suzuki, and the fact that he could serve in that physical capacity helped balance that top line. However, it would be interesting to see if Montreal experiments with breaking up that trio in the interest of better balancing the team’s offense over two lines. Outside of those three forwards and defenseman Mike Matheson, no other member of the Canadiens even reached the 40-point mark, and while that was in part due to Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach running into injury troubles, the Canadiens’ lines being so top-heavy was another factor. While playing on the top line would doubtlessly be ideal for the 20-year-old Slafkovsky, his value isn’t dependent on his linemates, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him elevate his game beyond his 2023-24 showing.

Kirby Dach

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	15	43	58	0.78

Injuries have become a major problem for Dach. He was limited to 18 games in 2020-21, 58 contests in 2022-23 and then logged just two appearances last season before suffering a torn right ACL and MCL that required surgery. At least he’s expected to be healthy for the start of 2024-25, but history has unfortunately told us to be weary of his chances of playing a full campaign -- his career high in games still stands at just 70. If he were to stay healthy, though, the 23-year-old would likely log big minutes as a top-six forward and possibly even hold a spot on Montreal’s top power-play unit. Under those circumstances, a 50-point showing would be entirely feasible, should he stay healthy. That might not be his offensive peak either. Although he’s had a rough career thus far, Dach does have a significant amount of untapped upside, and the Alberta native is still young enough to potentially reach the promise that Chicago saw when he was taken with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft. As things stand right now, though, betting on Dach to succeed would be risky. At least, he’s a manageable risk from Montreal’s perspective due to his relatively low $3,362,500 annual cap hit through 2025-26.

DEFENSE

Michael Matheson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	12	48	60	0.74

Matheson is shaping up to be something of a late bloomer from an offensive perspective, but that’s in part because of his changing circumstances. Back during his tenures with Florida and Pittsburgh, he reached the 20-point mark four times over five campaigns while seeing limited use on the power play. Once he joined Montreal, though, the Quebec native was leaned on heavily with the man advantage and he took full advantage. Matheson recorded 11 goals and a career-high 62 points in 82 contests last season, including 28 power-play points. He also averaged 25:33 of ice time, which is the most in his career, and a big jump compared to his 18:44 per game during his two campaigns with Pittsburgh in 2020-21 and 2021-22. Those massive minutes with Montreal included an average of 2:59 on the penalty kill last year. He also took more defensive zone faceoffs than offensive ones, which further highlights that he was more than just an offensive blueliner for the Canadiens. Matheson also finished in a tie for 10th in the league with 186 blocks. Montreal will probably lean on him heavily again this season, but the Canadiens do have a crop of young defensemen who should eventually grow into bigger roles.

David Savard

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
64	6	16	22	0.34

Savard is a defensive defenseman is the back half of his career. He’s been something of a stabilizing force for the Canadiens on the blue line for the past three years, though his time with the squad might be drawing to a close as Montreal’s younger defensemen start to come into their own while Savard is entering the final campaign of his four-year, $14 million contract. The 33-year-old (34 on Oct. 22) had six goals, 24 points, 24 PIM, 163 blocks and 69 hits across 60 contests last season. He might do a little worse offensively in this campaign, and in particular he’ll probably score fewer goals after posting a 11.1 shooting percentage last season (his career average is 4.9). However, he should continue to put himself in front of a lot of shots and will be one of the Canadiens’ main penalty killers. Savard might also end up getting dealt at the trade deadline if Montreal isn’t in a playoff position. That worked out for him at the end of his previous contract with Columbus -- the Blue Jackets traded him to Tampa Bay in April 2021, and he provided the Lightning with valuable defensive depth en route to a Stanley Cup championship. If he does get moved, though, his playing time will probably decrease compared to the 20:14 of ice time he averaged in 2023-24 as stronger teams would likely prefer him in a third-pairing role.

Kaiden Guhle

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	7	23	30	0.38

Montreal’s defense is led by two veterans in Michael Matheson and David Savard, but past that is a group of young blueliners beginning to establish themselves. At the forefront of the new wave of Canadiens defensemen is Guhle, who recorded six goals, 22 points, 56 PIM, 178 blocks and 116 hits in 70 contests last season while averaging 20:51 of ice time. Not ready to shift into offseason mode after the Canadiens’ campaign ended, he joined Team Canada for the World Championship, providing a goal and five points in nine contests during the tournament. Guhle has the potential to develop into a great two-way defenseman, though he’s always likely to lean more toward the defensive side of the game. That bias towards defense over offense is clear in how Montreal has been utilizing him so far, sending him out frequently on the penalty kill, but rarely on the power play. He also had 17.2 percent of his shifts start in the defensive zone compared to just 7.5 percent in the offensive zone. Guhle is expected to continue to be used more at his own end of the ice, and he’s unlikely to secure a regular role on the power play this season unless injuries force the Canadiens into a major change. Even still, we might see a modest increase in the 22-year-old’s scoring production as he continues to get comfortable in the NHL.

GOAL

Samuel Montembeault

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
44	19	20	5	2	0.904	2.93

Cayden Primeau

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
38	17	17	4	1	0.902	3.12

The Montreal Canadiens are officially in their rebuilding era - but not in net, at least not yet. The Canadiens focused their off-season efforts on shoring up scoring, leaving the tandem of Samuel Montembeault and Cayden Primeau - serviceable, if a bit unspectacular as a pair - to go it alone without a locker room veteran to round out the goaltending carousel. Montembeault and Primeau both sat comfortably right at the league average last season, with Primeau putting up the better raw performances while Montembeault favored better in terms of shouldering a heavier workload. And that, given how poorly the rest of the Montreal lineup performed, is about all the team could have asked for.

The loss of Carey Price as the team's rock and guiding force still stings, though, and even serviceable performances from a pair of affordable netminders felt a bit underwhelming in the aftermath of a starter who dragged even the most inconsistent of teams up into contending territory. That legacy adds an extra layer of pressure for both of next year's starters, who will be expected to at the very least replicate their solid performance from last year. The real spotlight will be on Primeau, who was once considered the heir apparent to Price's throne. But if the addition of Patrik Laine can ignite some scorepower up front for Montreal, the pressure will be on both Primeau and Montembeault to help elevate the team out of the basement as well.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Vilardi proving early returns for Jets – Nichushkin doing heavy lifting – Vets picking up pace in Anaheim – Youngs guns firing in Columbus plus much, much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 22 Dec 2023 22:57:00 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 13: Winnipeg Jets center Gabriel Vilardi (13) celebrates his goal during an NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on December 13, 2023 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the Jets must like the early returns from Gabriel Vilardi, Valeri Nichushkin is doing some heavy lifting in Colorado, veteran forwards are picking up the pace in Anaheim, young guns are starting to fire in Columbus, and the Flames are finding some top line chemistry.

#1 Right winger Gabriel Vilardi was injured in his third game with the Winnipeg Jets and missed nearly six weeks with a sprained knee. He has fully recovered now, it appears, as Vilardi has put up 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 15 shots on goal in the past four games. With Kyle Connor out, Vilardi has joined Winnipeg’s top line, alongside Nikolaj Ehlers and Mark Scheifele, and that is working out just fine. Vilardi has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 13 games this season, putting him ahead of Pierre-Luc Dubois, who has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) in 29 games for the Kings after Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari, and a second-round pick were sent to Winnipeg in exchange for Dubois.

#2 The Colorado Avalanche have decided that they are going to lean on winger Valeri Nichushkin, and he is thriving under the heavy workload. He is riding a six-game point streak, during which he has 11 points (5 G, 6 A) and 25 shots on goal, while averaging an astonishing 25:44 of ice time per game. Obviously, skating on a line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen is a great situation for anyone to contribute offensively, but Nichushkin is a strong two-way player in his own right and is an excellent complement to Colorado’s elite offensive talent.

#3 With injuries down the middle of the ice, the Anaheim Ducks have turned to Adam Henrique and the veteran forward has been thriving in his role, skating on a line with Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome. Henrique has not only scored seven points (6 G, 1 A) in the past six games, but he has taken 121 face-offs, winning 70 (57.9%). A 33-year-old with an expiring contract, Henrique figures to be popular leading up to the trade deadline as a proven goal-scorer who has scored at least 20 goals in six different seasons.

#4 Another veteran providing offensive production in Anaheim is Alex Killorn, the 34-year-old who was signed as a free agent in the summer after a long stay in Tampa Bay to start his career. Killorn was injured at the start of the season and struggled in his first action, managing zero goals and three assists in his first nine games with the Ducks. Since then, he has contributed nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 40 shots on goal in his past 13 games, having success alongside rookie Leo Carlsson and veteran Troy Terry. Carlsson left Thursday’s loss to Calgary with an apparent lower-body injury, which could cause further upheaval among Anaheim’s forward group.

#5 Acquired by the Flames from the Devils in the summer deal that sent Tyler Toffoli to New Jersey, Yegor Sharangovich took some time to heat up with Calgary. Sharangovich fits well alongside linemates Elias Lindholm and Andrew Mangiapane. In the past eight games, Sharangovich has tallied nine points (6 G, 3 A) and is averaging 19:51 of ice time per game. He has logged more than 20 minutes in seven of his past 12 contests.

#6 Demoted to the American Hockey League at the start of the season, 21-year-old winger Kent Johnson is showing the Columbus Blue Jackets that he belongs on the big club. In his past seven games, Johnson has accumulated eight points (3 G, 5 A) despite only registering nine shots on goal. He is skating on a line with Cole Sillinger and Emil Bemstrom and Johnson is getting opportunities on Columbus’ second power play unit.

#7 Staying in Columbus, 23-year-old Kirill Marchenko continues to boost his credentials as a finisher. Marchenko has seven points (5 G, 2 A) with 15 shots on goal in his past six games. Since the start of last season, Marchenko has recorded 34 goals and 12 assists, giving him 2.83 goals per assist, which is by far the highest rate among players that have recorded at least 30 goals in that time frame.

#8 With Barrett Hayton injured, opportunity has knocked for Arizona Coyotes centre Alexander Kerfoot, who has moved up the depth chart to skate between Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz on Arizona’s top line. Kerfoot has produced 14 points (2 G, 12 A) while averaging 19:56 time on ice in his past 12 games and even for a reluctant shooter like Kerfoot, those numbers are strong enough to draw the interest of fantasy managers.

#9 One of the most snakebit players in the league at the start of the season, Montreal Canadiens right winger Josh Anderson had zero goals and two assists through 23 games. Since then, though, Anderson is heating up, putting up seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 27 shots on goal in his past nine games. On a Habs team that is thin up front, Anderson is skating with Sean Monahan and Jake Evans at evens while also taking a turn with Montreal’s second power play unit.

#10 Veteran centre Matt Duchene is enjoying a strong season in Dallas, his first season with the Stars. Centering a line with Mason Marchment and Tyler Seguin on his wings, Duchene has produced 12 points (5 G, 7 A) with 22 shots on goal in his past eight games. For a Stars team that can lean so heavily on its top line, getting this kind of secondary production out of Duchene is what keeps them at the top of the Central Division.

#11 Goaltending has been a major problem for the Carolina Hurricanes this season. Starter Frederik Andersen has been injured since early November and Antti Raanta was just demoted to the American Hockey League, leaving Pyotr Kochetkov as the best option between the pipes for the Hurricanes. Since getting called up after Andersen’s injury, Kochetkov does have a .913 save percentage in 14 games. For a Hurricanes team that can still control play consistently, above average goaltending can easily bring fantasy value.

#12 Through 17 games this season, Dallas Stars defenceman Thomas Harley had a modest five points (3 G, 2 A) and 22 shots on goal while playing 17:29 per game. In 10 games since then, Harley has 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 21 shots on goal while averaging 19:00 of ice time per game. The 22-year-old has scored on 20.9 percent of his shots, which obviously can’t continue, but increased ice time and increased shot rates can surely lead to sustainable offensive production.

#13 It has not been easy for Maple Leafs defenceman Conor Timmins, who has battled injuries throughout his career, but injuries to others in Toronto opened the door for the 25-year-old blueliner to get some regular playing time and he is making the most of it. Timmins has produced five points (1 G, 4 A) with 10 shots on goal in his past seven games. He quarterbacks the second power play unit and has generally been quite effective in his limited role. Timmins has value for those in deep leagues and is well worth watching because if he could just stay healthy for an extended period, that would be a notable development.

#14 A second-round pick by the Seattle Kraken in 2021, defenceman Ryker Evans has stepped into the Seattle lineup and looks NHL ready. He just turned 22 -years-old and has four assists in his past four games, playing more than 18 minutes in each of those four contests. Evans had 44 points (6 G, 38 A) in 71 games as an AHL rookie for Coachella Valley last season, then added 26 points (5 G, 21 A) in 26 playoff games. He started this season with eight points (2 G, 6 A) in 18 games and it was enough to earn his promotion to the big club. There is a caveat with Evans, though. He did not play in Wednesday’s win over Los Angeles and, as well as he has played, he is still competing to earn a regular spot on the Seattle blueline.

#15 Veteran St. Louis Blues defenceman Justin Faulk is not scoring like he did last season when he tallied a career high 50 points (11 G, 39 A), but he is starting to launch shots on goal at an impressive clip. While Faulk has four points (1 G, 3 A) in his past eight games, he has also put 30 shots on goal and averaging nearly four shots on goal per game is a terrific way for a defenceman to generate offensive production. Faulk’s career-high average for shots on goal per game is 3.00, set in 2016-2017 when he was with the Carolina Hurricanes.

#16 At the start of the season, as the Edmonton Oilers struggled to get on track, it sure looked like defenceman Mattias Ekholm was still battling an injury that had kept him out of action in the preseason. The veteran blueliner has steadily improved, though. In his past 21 games, Ekholm has 12 points (4 G, 8 A) and 56 shots on goal. Last season, after he was acquired from Nashville, Ekholm contributed 14 points (4 G, 10 A) and 36 shots on goal in 21 games. He has 14 shots on goal in his past three games and 19 hits in his past five games, so he has picked up the pace and as the Oilers appear to be moving in the right direction, Ekholm’s production should be enough for fantasy managers to take notice.

#17 The key for Philadelphia Flyers winger Owen Tippett is to keep generating shots. When he is putting himself in position to fire on net Tippett tends to be effective, and the goals follow. He broke through last season with a career-high 27 goals and 49 points and that has raised expectations for him this season. Although he is playing less this season, Tippett is continuing to produce. In his past six games, he has five points (3 G, 2 A) with 25 shots on goal, landing six shots on goal in each of his two most recent games. That gives him 20 points (11 G, 9 A) in 32 games and his increasing shot rate is reason to expect that the production should continue.

#18 Also in Philadelphia, goaltender Samuel Ersson has recovered from a spectacularly terrible start to the season when he allowed 14 goals on 59 shots (.763 save percentage!) in his first three appearances. Since then, the 24-year-old netminder has been more than steady, posting a 8-2-1 record and .926 save percentage in 11 starts. That is the kind of play that will give Ersson a bigger role in the Flyers crease.

#19 The Vegas Golden Knights had five different goaltenders last season, on the way to winning the Stanley Cup, so they are probably not too fazed by recent injuries to Adin Hill and Logan Thompson. Enter 24-year-old Czech netminder Jiri Patera, a sixth-round pick of the Golden Knights in 2017. Patera played one season in the USHL and two in the WHL before toiling in the minors. He has a .907 save percentage in 74 career AHL games, which does not scream NHL ready, but it’s not terrible, and he has a .909 save percentage in five career NHL appearances. If he is going to get starts behind a quality team, though, Patera might offer some short-term value for fantasy managers.

#20 What can the Toronto Maple Leafs do in goal? Ilya Samsonov and Martin Jones are struggling, and Joseph Woll is hurt. It might be too soon, but would they consider giving Dennis Hildeby a shot? The 22-year-old was a fourth-round pick of the Maple Leafs in 2022 and had a .918 save percentage in 21 games for Farjestads in the Swedish Hockey League last season. He has a .927 save percentage in a dozen AHL games for the Toronto Marlies this season and the way things are going for the Leafs with Woll injured, they might need to consider other options in net. At the very least, Hildeby should be monitored for those in dynasty leagues because the 6-foot-7 netminder has shown promise.

FANTASY: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Farabee stepping up for Flyers – Injuries open door to opportunity – Goalies bouncing back – Early-season underachievers that might offer potential buy-low value + much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 17 Nov 2023 19:43:45 +0000

ANAHEIM, CA - NOVEMBER 10: Philadelphia Flyers left wing Joel Farabee (86) with the puck during an NHL hockey game against the Anaheim Ducks played on November 10, 2023 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Joel Farabee is stepping up for the Flyers, injuries open the door for opportunities, goalies bouncing back, and early-season underachievers that might offer potential buy-low value.

#1 Although Philadelphia Flyers winger Joel Farabee hit a career high with 39 points (15 G, 24 A) last season, it was widely regarded as a disappointing campaign. He was recovering from disc replacement surgery in his neck and both his shot rate and shooting percentage declined. This season, however, Farabee is a vital part of the Flyers’ ability to exceed expectations. He has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in 16 games and all 12 points have come during five-on-five play; his 3.52 points per 60 ranks ninth in the league and while his lack of power play production does put a ceiling on Farabee’s potential production, he has already taken steps forward from last season.

#2 Buffalo Sabres star centre Tage Thompson has been lost for “less than a couple of months” with a wrist injury. His absence will require Dylan Cozens and Casey Mittelstadt to anchor the top two centre spots on the Sabres depth chart. Cozens has one assist in his past six games and is averaging less ice time per game than he did last season, so this will provide ample opportunity for him to get back on track. Mittelstadt has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 16 games, though with just 21 shots, he does have room to increase his offensive impact.

#3 The Anaheim Ducks placed centre Trevor Zegras on the injured list with a groin injury and he had just two points (1 G, 1 A) in 12 games when they decided that he needed a break. That theoretically could open the door for more ice time for rookie centre Leo Carlsson, who has eight points (6 G, 2 A) in 11 games, but he’s already averaging 18:18 of ice time per game when he plays, so it is difficult to expect and 18-year-old to get much more ice time. Maybe it’s more reasonable to expect Mason McTavish to take on a little more, as the 20-year-old has 16 points (7 G, 9 A) in 16 games while logging 17:32 of ice time per game.

#4 A neck injury has put Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen on the shelf, creating an opportunity for Valeri Nichushkin to skate with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen on Colorado’s top line. MacKinnon has been Nichushkin’s most common linemate this season already, but adding Rantanen does spice things up a bit. Nichushkin has produced five points (4 G, 1 A) and 18 shots on goal in the past five games.

#5 Florida Panthers defencemen Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad are both nearing returns to action, on the precipice of making their seasons debuts for last season’s Stanley Cup finalists. The most intriguing effect will likely fall on Oliver Ekman-Larsson, the 32-year-old defender whose play has been in decline for several seasons. Given a new lease on life in Florida, he has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) in 16 games, but half of those points have come on the power play and Montour’s return could take away Ekman-Larsson’s top unit power play role.

#6 An upper-body injury has landed Nashville Predators centre Tommy Novak on injured reserve for the next four-to-six weeks. With 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in 14 games, he is ranked third in scoring on the Predators and half of those points have come on the power play. Cody Glass gets first crack at Novak’s ice time, but he had better pick up the pace as he has yet to record a point in seven games this season.

#7 New Jersey Devils centre Jack Hughes appears to be on the verge of returning from his upper-body injury. The Devils’ playmaking centre has 20 points (5 G, 15 A) in 10 games, outrageous production and, given the landscape among the league’s top scorers, Hughes has a legitimate case to at least be in the race for the Art Ross Trophy. Michael McLeod, who has three points (1 G, 2 A) in the past five games, is likely to slide back down the depth chart when Hughes is ready to return.

#8 It seems that nearly every week there is some example of how unpredictable goaltending can be from one season to the next, never mind smaller samples like one week to the next or one game to the next. Consider the case of St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington, who had a .897 save percentage in 98 games over the previous two seasons. This season, his save percentage is up to XXXX and, at least before the Blues were blown out by the San Jose Sharks Thursday night (in a game started by Joel Hofer), goaltending had been helping the Blues get back to a more competitive level.

#9 Anaheim Ducks netminder John Gibson was an elite performer early in his career, posting a .921 save percentage from 2013-2014 through 2018-2019, but then the burden of playing behind a suspect Ducks defence started to catch up to him and from 2019-2020 through 2022-2023, his save percentage had fallen to .902. This season, however, Gibson has a .927 save percentage in nine starts. With the Ducks more competitive than expected, Gibson is once again a valuable commodity for fantasy managers.

#10 In the previous two seasons, with the Maple Leafs and Blackhawks, Petr Mrazek had a .893 save percentage. In eight games this season, he is rocking a .921 save percentage. The wins don’t come easily in the Windy City, but if Mrazek is going to play at this above-average level, he is going to be fantasy relevant, which was not a widely held expectation for him at the start of the season.

#11 Edmonton Oilers left winger Evander Kane erupted for a hat trick in Wednesday’s 4-3 overtime win against Seattle. Following a slow start, Kane has produced 14 points (7 G, 7 A) and 34 shots on goal in the past 10 games, which puts him up among the top wingers because when the scoring is there, he also generates shots and provides a physical presence (56 hits in 15 games).

#12 Matt Duchene did not record a point in his first four games for the Dallas Stars, which saw him get waived in many fantasy hockey leagues, but the trend has reversed in a hurry. In 10 games since, Duchene has produced 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 25 shots on goal, thriving on a line with Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment.

#13 Part of Winnipeg’s return in the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade, Alex Iafallo has been a quality supporting winger for the Jets. He could stand to shoot the puck more, but Iafallo has nine points (1 G, 8 A) in his past six games, and he is riding shotgun with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele on the Jets’ top line as well as holding down a spot on Winnipeg’s top power play unit.

#14 After a brilliant performance at the World Championships, 21-year-old Buffalo Sabres winger J.J. Peterka entered this season with some expectations. He started slowly, but has now delivered nine points (4 G, 5 A) in the past nine games, a sign that he could be ready to make a leap in only his second NHL campaign.

#15 A couple of early AHL call-ups have made an instant impact in the NHL. Calgary’s Connor Zary, a first-round pick in 2020, has six points (3 G, 3 A) in seven games, though he has just one shot on goal in the past three, leaving him with 11 shots on goal in those seven games. That needs to bounce back up for his production to have a higher likelihood of sustainability. Zary and fellow rookie Martin Pospisil have been flanking Nazem Kadri on the Flames’ second line. Toronto’s Nick Robertson is no longer Calder Trophy eligible after various stints with the Maple Leafs in the past three seasons, but the 22-year-old does have four points (2 G, 2 A) in four games since getting promoted from the AHL, where he had 11 points (5 G, 6 A) in nine games. Robertson is skating with Max Domi and Calle Jarnkrok in a third line that suddenly has some offensive pop to it.

#16 The leader in expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 50 minutes of ice time) during the month of November is Bruins left winger Brad Marchand (2.09), ahead of Alex Tuch (2.06), Timo Meier (2.04), Connor McMichael (2.02), and Kevin Fiala (2.00). McMichael stands out of that group as he is not nearly as established as an offensive force. With Nicklas Backstrom stepping away from the Capitals, McMichael is looking at a bigger role and has four points (2 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal in the past four games and could be a buy-low option in deep leagues. At the other end of the spectrum, there are some forwards who have not been generating chances and it is no surprise if fourth liners have a low rate of expected goals, but Alex Newhook (0.19), Kaapo Kakko (0.21), Matthew Poitras (0.33), and Pavel Zacha (0.36) – all of whom have some expectation of offensive production - are among the forwards in the bottom 20 when it comes to individual expected goals in November.

#17 Looking specifically at five-on-four power play situations, which players are being put in position to score with the man advantage? The leader in individual expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 40 five-on-four minutes this season) is Florida’s Sam Reinhart (4.05), ahead of Joe Pavelski (3.67), Sidney Crosby (3.53), Drake Batherson (3.35), Vincent Trocheck (3.31), and Tommy Novak (3.28).

#18 While there are some players scoring on a ridiculously high percentage of shots, that likely won’t be sustainable – looking at you, Alexis Lafreniere (29.2%) and Brock Boeser (27.1%) – there are players at the other end who are generating shots on goal and not finding the net. Pittsburgh’s Rickard Rakell has zero goals on 40 shots. He has had some seasons in which his shooting percentages are terrible, but zero for forty is a real struggle, especially for a player who is skating on a line with Reilly Smith and Evgeni Malkin, two skilled linemates. Others that might be buy-low considerations with zero goals: Josh Anderson (38 shots) and T.J. Oshie (28 shots).

#19 Spinning this to the players that have underachieved the most relative to their expected goals thus far, Oshie (-5.54) and Anderson (-5.31) have fallen shortest of their expected goals totals, followed by Matthew Tkachuk (-5.00), Anders Lee (-4.64), and Rakell (-4.31). These guys are getting chances but can’t finish. On the other hand, the players exceeding their expected goals by the widest margin thus far are: Kyle Connor (6.29), Alex DeBrincat (6.07), Frank Vatrano (5.96), Teuvo Teravainen (5.48), and Chris Kreider (5.08). These are players off to great starts, but sustainability could be a challenge.

#20 One of the bigger tests of any buy-low theory is Columbus Blue Jackets left winger Johnny Gaudreau. He and Patrick Laine were benched in Thursday’s 3-2 loss to Arizona, and Gaudreau has a paltry six points (1 G, 5 A) and 40 shots on goal through 17 games. Gaudreau’s shot rate is down to 2.35 per game and if he can’t make it work with a shooter like Laine, then the Blue Jackets need to make some changes because it makes no sense to invest so much in Gaudreau, only to let him wither on the vine with a line that isn’t working. Gaudreau and Laine have controlled the flow of play to some degree at five-on-five, with 57.3% Corsi, but they are pulling just 40.9% of expected goals and that isn’t going to cut it. It’s notable that Gaudreau has had more success with his most common linemate, Boone Jenner, with a 58.5% Corsi and 58.0% of expected goals. Somehow, some way, the Blue Jackets need to find the right fit for Gaudreau and fantasy managers can lurk and wait for the answer because Gaudreau’s value right now is about as low as it could get.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – MONTREAL CANADIENS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Player Profiles + Team Preview – Ryan Dadoun, Goaltending – Catherine Silverman — Wed, 04 Oct 2023 15:58:53 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - NOVEMBER 22: Cole Caufield (22) of the Montreal Canadiens waits for the puck during the first period of the NHL game between the Buffalo Sabres and the Montreal Canadiens on November 22, 2022, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

Review: After posting a 22-49-11 record in 2021-22, the Canadiens were looking for incremental steps last year and that’s what they got. Nick Suzuki put forth his second straight 60-plus point campaign and is looking like a solid cornerstone of the Canadiens’ future. Cole Caufield was encouraging too with 26 goals and 36 points in 46 contests, though a shoulder injury complicated matters. Injuries were unfortunately a recurring theme for Montreal with forwards Kirby Dach, Jonathan Drouin, Sean Monahan and top defenseman Mike Matheson all missing significant chunks of time. Goaltender Sam Montembeault was able to stay healthy, but he had a miserable time, posting a 3.42 GAA and .901 save percentage in 40 contests. To be fair, Montreal ranked 30th in five-on-five expected goals against (203.85), so Montembeault wasn’t getting any support from those in front of him. With all that hardship, the Canadiens’ 31-45-6 record could be seen as the smallest of wins, especially given that it was a 13-point improvement compared to the prior campaign.

What’s Changed?Drouin walked as an unrestricted free agent, but Montreal was still able to bolster its promising young forward group with the acquisition of Alex Newhookfrom Colorado. The Canadiens also acquired Casey DeSmith from Pittsburgh, adding another veteran to their goaltending mix.

What would success look like? There’s so much potential here. If Monahan stays healthy and performs like he was in 2022-23 before getting hurt, then a bounce back to 50 points is possible. If Caufield also remains healthy then he might breach the 30-goal and 60-point marks for the first time. If head coach Martin St. Louis can guide Newhook like he has some of Montreal’s other young forwards, then the 22-year-old might be in line for a breakout year. If Slafkovsky, taken first overall in 2022, had a good summer and takes some of the lessons from his subpar rookie campaign, he could breakout too.

What could go wrong? If ifif. So much could break the Canadiens’ way, but Montreal is dealing with a lot of unknowns. By far the worst of it is this: Even if everything outlined above happens, the Canadiens could still miss the playoffs. The defense was horrendous last year and is likely to lag the growth of the offense. In goal there’s no clear solution, even after adding DeSmith, who struggled with Pittsburgh last year. Plus, the competition in the Atlantic Division is tough, making the margin for error slim.

Top Breakout Candidate:It’s got to be Caufield. After all, the 2022-23 campaign would have been his breakout season if not for injury. Of all the “ifs” outlined above, he’s the closest Montreal has to a sure thing. The talent is clearly there and even with all the ups, downs and injuries he’s gone through, Caufield still has accumulated 49 goals over the past two years. There should be a lot more scoring in his future.

Forwards

Nick Suzuki - C

Montreal is building a promising young core of forwards, and Suzuki is at the center of that movement. After becoming the 31st captain in Montreal’s storied history before the season began, the Canadien center showed why he’s the new face of the franchise by scoring 26 goals and 66 points in 82 contests. That gave him a staggering 28-point cushion over Kirby Dach, who finished second in the scoring race. Part of the reason Suzuki easily led the team in points was because Dach and Cole Caufield were held back by injuries, finishing with 58 and 46 games played, respectively, in 2022-23, but that also makes what Suzuki did more impressive. Under ideal circumstances, he would have played regularly with Dach and Caufield, but that trio only amounted to just 27.2% of Suzuki’s even-strength minutes. Suzuki ended up dealing with a revolving door of linemates, which was far from a good position for him, but he managed to perform regardless. A combination of injuries and the team still being in a rebuilding state also left Montreal 29th on the power play with just a 16.1% success rate. Suzuki was leaned on heavily with the man advantage and recorded a team-best 17 power-play points, but one must wonder how he might do if the Canadiens overall improved in that regard. The good news is the rest of the young core should start catching up to the 24-year-old, giving him more to work with. Coupled with Suzuki’s own continued development, there’s a fair chance he’ll reach the 70-point mark for the first time, if not higher.

Cole Caufield - LW

Montreal signed Caufield to an eight-year, $62.8 million contract over the summer. It is quite the commitment to make to a forward who has never recorded more than 43 points in a single season, but in this case, it could be a steal for the Canadiens. Caufield’s career has gotten off to a promising start, though there have also been major roadblocks. He struggled terribly under head coach Dominique Ducharme during the 2021-22 campaign, posting a goal and eight points in 30 outings, but once Ducharme was replaced by Martin St. Louis, Caufield underwent a complete reversal, scoring 22 goals and 35 points in 37 contests. Standing at 5’ 7”, Caufield’s size has been a point of concern for a while.Which is something St. Louis can relate to, having faced the same sort of questions during his playing days, so it seems appropriate that the new bench boss was able to get the most out of the creative winger. The 22-year-old’s success under St. Louis continued into the 2022-23 campaign with him scoring 26 goals and 36 points in 46 games through Jan. 19th before shoulder problems ended his season. He did show determination before that though, having separated his shoulder Dec. 23, he attempted to remain in the lineup after it was popped back in. However, after it happened again Jan. 3rd, the recommendation was made to undergo surgery. Even then, Caufield said he would have pushed through it if Montreal was in the running for a playoff spot. So long as he stays healthy, Caufield should easily set new career highs and maybe even flirt with the 40-goal milestone.

Josh Anderson - RW

Anderson is the type of player that teams always value and sometimes overvalue: the big forward who isn’t afraid to use his strength to make life miserable for the opposition while also not looking completely out of place with the puck on his stick. Anderson had 21 goals and 32 points in 69 contests last season, making it the sixth time in seven years he’s finished above 15 goals (the lone exception being 2019-20 when he was limited to 26 games) and the second time in his career he’s surpassed the 20-goal milestone. That’s an okay level of production, but it’s nowhere near enough to warrant his $5.5 million cap hit. It’s his gritty play – he recorded 72 PIM and 139 hits last season – that makes him come even close to justifying his pay. Unfortunately, Anderson’s aggressive style has come at a cost, with the 29-year-old missing 26 contests over the last two years. Injuries are going to continue to be a point of concern, especially after his 2022-23 campaign ended due to a high-ankle sprain sustained March 22nd. If he can stay healthy, then Anderson might earn an opportunity on the top line, creating space for 5’ 7” Cole Caufield and 5’ 11”Nick Suzuki. That role won’t lead to the towering forward being an offensive force in his own right, but his presence will be good news for his linemates.

Kirby Dach - RW

When the Blackhawks selected Dach with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, they were looking at a big center who could skate well and was tough to lodge the puck from once it was in his possession. He didn’t end up doing much with Chicago though, despite getting every opportunity, and after being limited to nine goals and 26 points in 70 contests in 2021-22, it was decided that a change of scenery might be in his best interests. The Canadiens clearly thought they could get the most out of Dach, sacrificing the 2022 No. 13 and No. 66 overall picks to get him and, so far, that bet has worked out. He set career highs with 14 goals and 38 points in 58 contests with the Canadiens last season despite playing just four games past Feb. 14th due to injury troubles. Montreal often had him shift to the wing to work alongside Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki, complementing the smaller forwards with his size. Depending on who is healthy to open the campaign, Dach might find himself pushed off the top line in favor of fellow big man Josh Anderson, but even if that happens, the 22-year-old should still play big minutes, likely alongside Sean Monahan and Brendan Gallagher. Dach is also expected to stay on the top power-play unit regardless, which is important given that 16 of his 38 points last year came with the man advantage. There is reason for cautious optimism here and to hope that, provided Dach stays healthy, he’ll reach the 50-point milestone.

Christian Dvorak - C

Dvorak can be best described as fine. He had 10 goals and 28 points in 64 appearances last season, which is a bit below average for him, but not enough of a decline to be startling. He’s never reached the 40-point milestone, and the 27-year-old probably never will, especially if injuries keep getting in the way. He didn’t play past March 7th last season because of a knee issue that led to surgery and hasn’t participated in over 70 games in a single campaign since 2017-18. Still, when he is available, he’s okay defensively, helps kill penalties (finished fourth on Montreal with an average shorthanded ice time of 2:18) and is an asset on the draw (had a 52% faceoff success rate last season and is at 52.4% over his career). That’s not enough to get people excited about Dvorak, but at least it justifies using him to center the third or, when necessary, second line, despite his mediocre offensive output. It’s also sufficient to make his $4.45 million cap hit acceptable and potentially even make him a trade candidate if a contender is looking for depth up the middle at the deadline. Regardless of who he plays for though, Dvorak is likely to be fine, and nothing more.

Brendan Gallagher - RW

There was a time when Gallagher was a glue player for the Canadiens thanks to his work ethic and goal-scoring prowess, but his six-year, $39 million contract, which began with the 2021-22 campaign, is shaping up to be a disaster. After surpassing the 30-goal milestone in each of 2017-18 and 2018-19, followed by him contributing 22 goals and 43 points in 59 outings in 2019-20, the 31-year-old has failed to even record 25 points in any of the last three seasons. Last year was a new low for him, finishing with eight goals and 14 points in 37 contests. Ankle issues took a toll, but even when he was healthy, Gallagher wasn’t productive, with his 0.38 points per game being a career worst. Even on a rebuilding quad, Gallagher also saw his role diminish, from an average of 16:55 of ice time in 2019-20 to 14:17 last season. The silver lining is he’s healthy going into the 2023-24 campaign and feels upbeat about how his offseason training went. There’s also an opportunity for him to play a bigger role after Montreal parted ways with Mike Hoffman and Jonathan Drouin over the summer. Gallagher is still a big risk going into the season, but those at least provide some reasons to hope for a bounce back campaign.

Alex Newhook - LW

Opportunities have been hard to come by for Newhook. Taken by Colorado with the No. 16 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, he served primarily in a bottom-six role with the Avalanche, consequently providing just 27 goals and 63 points in 153 contests over the last two years. A change of scenery was warranted and, after Montreal’s acquisition of Kirby Dach worked out perfectly a year prior, the Canadiens decided to see if lightning would strike twice by trading for Newhook over the summer. However, while Dach was a nice fit for Montreal’s top-six, Newhook again might struggle to get an opportunity. Newhook is a natural center, but between Nick Suzuki occupying that slot on the first line, Dach or Sean Monahan likely taking the second unit position and Christian Dvorak being a natural fit for the third line, Newhook is probably going to have to shift to the wing. Even then, there’s no guarantee he’ll find a top-six spot and might instead serve on the third line. However, that scenario only works if everyone stays healthy. While Newhook has managed to be durable, several of Montreal’s skilled forwards haven’t been as reliable. Combine that with Newhook’s versatility to slot in as a winger or center, and he might be the first forward to move up to a top-six role if Montreal runs into injury issues. With that in mind, the 22-year-old will be someone to keep an eye on, because while at first glance he seems like a fair bet to record 30-40 points, circumstances might lead to this being a bigger season for him.

Sean Monahan - C

The 2022-23 campaign was one that offered a glimmer of hope for Monahan, but in some ways, it was also his most disheartening yet. After undergoing hip surgery in 2021 and then again in 2022, Calgary was ready to move on. He was far removed from his 82-point campaign in 2018-19, recording just eight goals and 23 points in 65 contests in 2021-22, making him a liability even when healthy. The rebuilding Canadiens were happy to accept Monahan along with a conditional 2025 first-round pick in exchange for covering the final season of his seven-year, $44.625 million contract. Montreal gave Monahan a chance to serve as a top-six forward, and he rewarded them by recording six goals and 17 points in 25 outings. In terms of points per game, it was his best showing since 2019-20, but he didn’t play past Dec. 5th due to a foot injury followed by season-ending groin surgery. Montreal still liked him enough to ink him to a one-year, $2 million contract over the summer, but the short-term nature of the deal underscores the risk he still comes with. Monahan is penciled in to start the season as the Canadiens’ second-line center, but will his body allow him to do that over the course of an 82-game campaign? After all, he’s now undergone three surgeries in as many years. Even if he does stay healthy, how productive will he be? He showed promise in 2022-23, but 25 games are hardly an ideal sample size. The 28-year-old (29 on Oct. 12) is at very least a comeback candidate, but a high-risk one.

Juraj Slafkovsky - LW

First overall picks are often expected to be ready to compete in the NHL right away and many are up for that challenge. At first glance, Slafkovsky, who was taken by Montreal with the top pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, appeared ready to step into the world’s best league. Not only did the 6’ 3”, 238-pound forward already possess NHL size, but he had experience playing with adults after scoring five goals and 10 points in 31 games with TPS Turku of the Finnish League in 2021-22. Slafkovsky also participated in the 2022 Winter Olympics, scoring seven goals in seven contests with Slovakia and contributed another three goals and nine points in eight outings during the 2022 World Championships. Despite that, he was limited to four goals and 10 points in 39 contests as a rookie with Montreal. To be fair, injuries, which prevented him from playing past Jan. 15th, contributed to his poor showing. Coach Martin St. Louis also attempted to ease him into the lineup, giving the Slovakian native an average of just 12:13 of ice time, which significantly reduced his offensive opportunities. There was a silver lining though, because while he wasn’t a big threat with the puck, Slafkovsky did utilize his size, recording 33 PIM and 53 hits. Unfortunately, in the short-term, he might continue to serve in a bottom-six role. Slafkovsky has the potential to eventually establish himself as a top liner, but it might be a few years before we see that side of him.

Joel Armia - RW

Although two seasons remain on Armia’s two-year, $13.6 million contract, he probably isn’t part of Montreal’s long-term plans. The 30-year-old is far removed from the Canadiens' rebuild-driven youth movement and while Armia is entering his sixth campaign with Montreal, it would be a stretch to call him a staple of the team. Injuries have played a role in that, with Armia failing to log more than 60 contests in any year with the Habs, but his relative lack of offensive contributions – he’s recorded just 20 goals and 42 points in 144 contests over the last three seasons – also make him easy to overlook. Still, the Finnish winger has his uses. He’s fine defensively and can be confidently plugged in on the penalty kill. He’s also got size at 6-foot-3, 216 pounds, and while he's not the most physical forward out there, he has dished out 6.58 hits per 60 minutes over the last three campaigns, which was good for sixth on Montreal in that span (min. 50 games). Looking ahead, Armia should be penciled in on the Canadiens’ third line, though their younger forwards might do enough to lodge him from that position. It wouldn’t be surprising if his average ice time in 2023-24 dipped below the 14:57 he saw last season, and he might even see some time as a healthy scratch.

Defense

Mike Matheson - D

Acquired by Montreal from Pittsburgh over the summer of 2022 as part of the Jeff Petry trade, Matheson was given a golden opportunity with the Canadiens. He averaged a respectable 18:48 of ice time in Pittsburgh while providing 11 goals and 31 points in 74 contests in 2021-22, but Montreal saw Matheson as its clear No. 1 defenseman. With that in mind, Matheson jumped to 24:27 per game last season, including an average of 3:11 with the man advantage. Injury troubles during the first half of the campaign prevented 2022-23 from being a true breakout season, but he was still incredible when healthy, contributing eight goals and 34 points (nine on the power play) in 48 outings. He also helped kill penalties, blocked 80 shots and, while plus/minus always needs to be taken with a grain of salt, finished with a plus-seven rating on a rebuilding squad. In other words, he was everything Montreal could have hoped for and then some. To make matters better, the Canadiens will get three more years of Matheson at a $4.875 million cap hit. His injury history is a concern – which is a recurring theme when evaluating Canadiens players – but if he can stay healthy, then it’s not unrealistic to believe he can finish with 50-60 points in 2023-24.

David Savard - D

Savard is 32 years old and will turn 33 on Oct. 22, so he might be in the twilight of his career by the time Montreal’s rebuild is in the rearview mirror. However, he deserves a lot of credit for doing the hard work now that might serve as the foundation of the team in the future. The Quebec native sacrificed himself last year, blocking a career-high 176 shots despite playing in just 62 contests, while also serving in a leading role on the penalty kill and acting as a mentor for the team’s young defenders. That culminated in him receiving Montreal’s Jacques Beauchamp Trophy, which goes to the player deemed most dominant without earning any other honor and can be seen as a way to highlight otherwise underappreciated players. One person who clearly didn’t underappreciate him was head coach Martin St. Louis, who asked Savard to average 22:23 of ice time. As younger defensemen like Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Harris, Arber Xhekaj and Justin Barron start to come into their own, Savard could find himself being gradually phased out. The veteran blueliner is still likely to see good minutes this season, but he probably won’t find himself second to only Mike Matheson in average ice time again. Even if Savard’s role doesn’t decrease, he’s not much of an offensive threat and shouldn’t be counted on to meaningfully exceed his 2022-23 totals of three goals and 20 points.

Kaiden Guhle - D

Guhle is far from the Canadiens’ only young defenseman, but he might be theirmost promising one. He’s got size and knows how to get the most out of that advantage, both with his physical play and by competing in tough areas. Adored more for his defensive skills, he wasn’t seen as having a ton of offensive upside when he was selected with the No. 16 overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, but that aspect of his game has developed nicely, making him a factor in all situations. With that skill set, rather than ease him into the lineup, Montreal asked Guhle to play an average of 20:31 of ice time in his rookie campaign, and he responded by recording four goals, 18 points, 27 PIM, 77 blocks and 84 hits in 44 outings last season. It was a strong showing, to the point where he might have even garnered a small amount of Calder Trophy consideration if injuries hadn’t gotten in the way. As it is, he’s primed to have a solid sophomore campaign. His power-play ice time was limited to 0:35 per game last season, but all Guhle’s offensive production as a rookie came at even-strength anyways, so it’s not unreasonable to believe he can flirt with the 30-point milestone even without being usedon the man advantage. The 21-year-old is also a good bet to surpass the 150 mark in each of blocks and hits provided he can stay healthy.

Goaltending

Samuel Montembeault - G

Even five years ago, no one would have believed it if someone had told them that the Montreal Canadiens would be spending the final half of goaltender Carey Price’s contract scrambling to figure out who on Earth to start each night in net – and even fewer would have believed that former Florida Panthers prospect Samuel Montembeault would be leading the charge for a rotating trio including himself, former St. Louis Blues starter Jake Allen, and former Pittsburgh Penguins backup Casey DeSmith.

But of all the options Montreal has to choose from, Montembeault may be their most reliable. Although the team has struggled and fallen firmly into rebuild territory, the 26-year-old backstop made the best of the situation. His raw numbers weren’t overly impressive, but his goals saved above expected put him in the conversation for goaltenders who made the most with the least league-wide; he was able to scrape together the best performance of anyone in Montreal over the last few years, despite being a mid-season pickup initially only brought on board to help the team weather the storm of too many injuries. He plays a fairly goal line-based game, preferring to utilize an impressive lower-body game and above-average flexibility to seal off the bottom of the net but staying on his feet on his goal line for longer to prevent holes from opening up at the top of the goal itself. And perhaps most importantly for Montreal, he does well preventing rebounds; while some goaltenders thrive spitting the puck back out into traffic, the somewhat disjointed structure in front of Montembeault and Allen last season made it difficult to have much faith in what might happen if the puck stayed in play after a first or second shot. That likely isn’t enough to push Montreal back out of the basement just yet, but it should be enough to keep them from entering free-fall – which might be all they’re asking for.

Projected starts: 55-60

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Value to be mined on the waiver wire in time for fantasy hockey playoffs

Scott Cullen — Fri, 17 Mar 2023 17:41:29 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - JANUARY 27: Carolina Hurricanes Center Jesperi Kotkaniemi (82) skates during the second period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Carolina Hurricanes on January 27, 2022 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the fantasy playoffs are coming, or underway in some cases. There is still value to be mined from the waiver wire, especially if your team needs to adjust to late-season injury news, like the season-ending injury to Andrei Svechnikov. Barrett Hayton, Dylan Strome, Logan Couture, and Jason Zucker are some of the forwards worth a late season add.

#1 The worst of the injury news this week is the Carolina Hurricanes losing left winger Andrei Svechnikov to a season-ending knee injury. At the time of his injury, Svechnikov was one of six players to have at least 20 goals and 140 hits. Brady Tkachuk, Jason Zucker, Lawson Crouse, Alex Ovechkin, and J.T. Miller were the others. With Svechnikov out, opportunity knocks for Jesse Puljujarvi, who gets a shot on Carolina’s top line alongside Sebastian Aho, his former teammate from Karpat in Finland. It has been a disappointing season for Puljujarvi, as he has just 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in 61 games, but this could be a good opportunity to snap out of it.

#2 While we’re talking about Finnish forwards in Carolina, don’t overlook Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who has produced 16 points (7 G, 9 A) in his past 17 games. That does include a five-point game against Tampa Bay and he only has 23 shots in that time, but the increased offensive production is a welcome development from the third pick in the 2018 Draft. His next point will tie his career high of 34 points, set during his rookie season in 2018-2019.

#3 It has not necessarily been the smoothest development path for Arizona Coyotes center Barrett Hayton, who was drafted fifth overall in 2018, but it looks like he is starting to find his groove in the NHL. The 22-year-old has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) during a six-game point streak and is making the most out of his opportunity to center Arizona’s top line. Before the points picked up, Hayton had already started generating more shots and has 68 shots on goal in his past 22 games, which is an encouraging sign for his future production.

#4 The third pick in the 2015 Draft, Washington Capitals center Dylan Strome has had his share of ups and downs with previous stops in Arizona and Chicago but has shown that he can score when given the chance. Strome has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) during a six-game point streak and has hit the 50-point plateau for the second time in his career.

#5 He is older now and playing for a team at the bottom of the standings, but San Jose Sharks center Logan Couture has contributed 21 points (7 G, 14 A) in his past 19 games. That gives him 58 points (24 G, 34 A) in 69 games for the season and his 0.84 points per game is the second highest per-game rate of his career. He’s also widely available for fantasy managers, so worth considering for a late-season push.

#6 Pittsburgh Penguins left winger Jason Zucker has managed to stay relatively healthy and is once again a goal-scoring threat. In his past 10 games, the 31-year-old forward has scored nine goals and put 38 shots on goal, giving him 24 goals and 42 points. The last time he had more in either category was the 2017-2018 season. Zucker’s 20 even-strength goals ranks 20^th in the league.

#7 As one of the few regular forwards to remain healthy in Montreal, Josh Anderson is playing a big role late in the season. In the past 10 games, he has eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 23 shots on goal, while averaging more than 19 minutes of ice time per game. He is up to 21 goals on the season, the second time in his career that he has crossed the 20-goal threshold.

#8 Recently acquired from the Dallas Stars, winger Denis Gurianov is thriving in a bigger role with the Habs. After scoring two goals and nine points in 43 games for Dallas, Gurianov has contributed five points (4 G, 1 a) and 29 shots on goal in 10 games for Montreal. It’s not earth-shattering production, but he is getting more than 15 minutes of ice time per game and, on a depleted Canadiens roster, has a good chance to play a big role for the rest of the season.

#9 Playing a bigger role in Chicago, winger Taylor Raddysh has seven points (6 G, 1 A) in his past five games and has hit the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career. One of the encouraging signs for Raddysh is that he is shooting more – he has 21 shots on goal in the past eight games and this comes after he had recorded a total of five shots on goal in the previous eight games. It is a lot easier to buy Raddysh as a goal-scoring threat if he is averaging 2.5 to 3 shots per game.

#10 On rare occasions, the waiver wire can unearth a gem, and it looks like that could be the case for the Arizona Coyotes with defenseman Juuso Valimaki, the 24-year-old that they claimed from Calgary. Valimaki had 16 points (3 G, 13 A) in 82 games for the Flames before he was waived and has shown that he is not only a legitimate NHLer, but a legit top four, or even top pair, defenseman. In addition to providing sound defensive play, Valimaki has responded well to an elevated role, playing nearly 23 minutes per game since late January. In his past 21 games, Valimaki has earned 16 assists and is quarterbacking Arizona’s top power play unit.

#11 What a strange path it has been for Nashville Predators center Thomas Novak, a 25-year-old who had seven points (1 G, 6 A) in 27 games as a rookie last season and started this season in the American Hockey League. He is now Nashville’s most productive center, playing on the top power play. In his past 14 games, Novak has put up 17 points (9 G, 8 A) with 25 shots on goal. He is obviously not going to keep scoring at that rate without more shots, but Novak has gone rather quickly from fringe NHLer to significant offensive contributor.

#12 Although he is not finishing like he has in the past, Vancouver Canucks right winger Brock Boeser is contributing to the club’s improved play late in the season. Since Rick Tocchet took over behind the Canucks bench, Boeser has 18 points (3 G, 15 A) in 21 games and he is helping center J.T. Miller get back on top of his game, too. Boeser has 45 points, a level that he has hit in each of his six NHL seasons, but just 12 goals.

#13 Los Angeles Kings right winger Gabriel Vilardi had a strong start to the season before some lean times in the middle portion of the schedule, but he is picking up his production again. In his past 17 games, he has 14 points (6 G, 8 A), giving him 22 goals and 39 points, which are both career highs. Of course, given Vilardi’s injury history, the 59 games that he has played this season is also a career high.

#14 Banger league managers may want to have an eye on Blues winger Sammy Blais, who has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 69 hits in 16 games since returning to St. Louis. Philadelphia’s Nic Deslauriers is the leading forward in terms of hits per game (minimum 50 GP), averaging 3.89 hits per game. Blais is averaging 4.31 per game with the Blues. Arizona rookie Jack McBain is another to consider, though probably for deep leagues only. McBain has six points (3 G, 3 A) to go with 25 hits in his past seven games and the Coyotes are giving him plenty of reps – he is averaging nearly 18 minutes per game over the past seven.

#15 At this stage of the season, it is not easy to find goaltending help, so that help may have to come from unlikely sources. If Tristan Jarry continues to struggle for Pittsburgh, Casey DeSmith could see more action. DeSmith has a .932 save percentage in his past six appearances.

#16 Other goaltenders that are more readily available in fantasy are some of the guys getting action with the worst teams in the league. Alex Stalock and Petr Mrazek of the Chicago Blackhawks are both playing better than might be expected. Stalock has had trouble staying healthy but has a .922 save percentage to go with a 9-8-1 record in 19 games. Mrazek struggled for a good chunk of the season, but he has a .926 save percentage in his past eight games. Arizona’s Connor Ingram has a .927 save percentage in his past 10 games but, because it is with the Coyotes, he has a 3-2-5 record in those 10 games. These aren’t ideal options, obviously, but if you’re desperate enough to look for goaltending at this stage of the season, you might be desperate enough to take goalies that are playing on bad teams.

#17 Colorado lost left winger Artturi Lehkonen for 4-6 weeks with a broken finger, suffered in his return to Montreal. That has resulted in guys like Evan Rodrigues and Denis Malgin getting bumped up the depth chart. Rodrigues has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past eight games. Malgin has two goals in his past six games but is not getting enough ice time to generate serious fantasy interest.

#18 The Arizona Coyotes is missing Nick Schmaltz with a lower-body injury, which is unfortunate considering that he had 25 points (14 G, 11 A) in his last 20 games before getting hurt. Newly acquired Brett Ritchie has been plugged into Schmaltz’s spot on the top line and first power play unit, which is not typical deployment for Ritchie. He does have four points (2 G, 2 A) in five games for Arizona and has played more than 18 minutes in each of his past three games.

#19 A lower-body injury has kept Kings right winger Kevin Fiala out of the lineup for the past week. That takes the leading scorer, with 68 points (22 G, 46 A) in 66 games, out of the mix for Los Angeles. Trevor Moore has rejoined Phillip Danault and Viktor Arvidsson on the second line with Fiala out of action and Moore has a goal and an assist in three games since his ice time was bumped up.

#20 Connor McDavid, Clayton Keller, and Cale Makar are tied for the scoring lead in the two weeks since the March 3 trade deadline, with 13 points. They are followed by Matthew Tkachuk, Nathan MacKinnon, Tim Stutzle, and Miro Heiskanen, at 12, with Leon Draisaitl, Barrett Hayton, Jamie Benn, and Vince Dunn coming in with 11. Hayton is obviously making the most of his chance to play with Keller, and the Stars getting big production out of Benn and Heiskanen is a little eye opening considering how dependent Dallas has been on production from the top line. Stutzle and Dunn have both taken a major step forward this season. Dunn is tied for 10^th among defensemen with 56 points (13 G, 43 A) in 68 games while Stutzle has erupted for a career-high 76 points (34 G, 42 A) in 64 games.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – MONTREAL CANADIENS – NHL Player Profiles

Ryan Dadoun – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 19:49:16 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - JULY 02: Montreal Canadiens center Nick Suzuki (14) gets ready to shoot the puck during the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Final game 3 between the Tampa Bay Lightning versus the Montreal Canadiens on July 02, 2021, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Nick Suzuki

To say the Montreal Canadiens had a rough 2021-22 campaign would be putting it lightly, but there were silver linings and Suzuki was one of the big ones. He set career-highs with 21 goals and 61 points in 82 games while averaging 20:31 minutes. The 23-year-old has established himself as a strong two-way center who can be deployed in all situations. He even averaged 1:30 shorthanded minutes last season, up from 0:45 minutes per game in 2020-21. At 5-foot-11, 201 pounds, he also has a physical aspect of his game, finishing fourth among Canadiens forwards with 89 hits. As good as he was overall though, it’s worth noting that like the team overall, he did significantly better after Martin St. Louis took over as the head coach. Under bench boss Dominique Ducharme, Suzuki had nine goals and 27 points in 45 games. It was good enough to lead the Canadiens in scoring, but it’s still a far cry from the 12 goals and 34 points in 37 contests he recorded under St. Louis. The new head coach did a great job of activating the team’s forwards and Suzuki should benefit from playing a major role during St. Louis’ first full season as a bench boss. Suzuki is set to begin an eight-year, $63 million contract this season. If he continues to mature as he has been, that should be a good deal for the Canadiens.

Brendan Gallagher

For much of Gallagher’s career, he’s been the type of player who you’d much rather have with you than against you. While his physical play doesn’t translate to a ton of hits, he nevertheless plays a gritty game. He’ll push to the front of the net and that’s his place of business when it comes to scoring goals. He also excels at getting under opponents’ skin and tends to draw penalties as a result. In 2021-22, he finished 15th in the league for penalties drawn/60 minutes (1.93) among those who played a minimum of 30 games. All that is particularly impressive coming from a player who lacks a size advantage. Gallagher is 5-foot-9, 184 pounds, which makes him among the smaller players in the league. His style of play has unquestionably has its benefits. At his best, he’s a fantastic winger, who surpassed the 30-goal milestone in back-to-back seasons in 2017-18 and 2018-19. The downside though has been the injuries he's suffered along the way and while he’s only now entering his 30s, there’s concerns that his game might lead to him aging faster than others. Perhaps we saw the first signs of that last season when he was limited to seven goals and 24 points in 56 games. However, it’s worth noting that he had an uncharacteristically low 4.9 shooting percentage, lacked consistent linemates, and was playing on a struggling team. So, it could have been a combination of bad luck and unfavorable circumstances that held him back in 2021-22 rather than him truly declining. Canadiens fans can be forgiven for feeling some anxiety when it comes to Gallagher given that he’s only through one season of the six-year, $39 million commitment Montreal made to him, but he is a bounce back candidate.

Josh Anderson

At the age of 28, it seems fair to believe that Anderson simply is what he’s shown himself to be. That’s not an entirely bad thing. He’s a big forward, standing at 6-foot-3, 226-pounds and will lean on that size advantage as evidenced by his 153 hits and 65 penalty minutes last season. He also can be a significant contributor offensively – at least some of the time. The trouble is, it doesn’t happen as often as some would hope, especially given that he’ll come with a $5.5 million cap hit through 2026-27. Anderson scored 27 goals and 47 points in 82 games with Columbus in 2018-19 and that remains his only 20-goal season. He’s come close in other campaigns and probably would have reached that mark in 2021-22 if he stayed healthy, but he’s no stranger to injuries and counting on him to have another 82-game season or something close to that might be hoping for too much. Another drawback is his inconsistency when he is healthy. He had pretty quiet stretches last season and unlike some other forwards, swapping head coach Dominique Ducharme for Martin St. Louis didn’t spark him. Anderson had nine goals and 16 points in 34 games prior to the coaching change versus 10 goals and 16 points in 35 contests after it. Ultimately, this is probably what Anderson is. He’s a power forward who is a good, but not great scoring threat. Even if he ends up consistently playing on the first line and stays healthy, he's not a sure thing to reach the 50-point milestone and those are ideal circumstances.

Evgenii Dadonov

It’s hard not to think of the trade that never was when dwelling on Dadonov. In an instance of extreme oddness, Vegas dealt Dadonov to Anaheim, only not really because it turned out that it violated the terms of his no-trade clause. The icing on that weird story was the fact that Dadonov went on a tear for Vegas after refusing the trade, scoring five goals and 16 points in 16 games the rest of the way, including a pair of game winners. That didn’t stop the Golden Knights from trading Dadonov – for real this time – to Montreal on June 16 in exchange for the contract of Shea Weber. Given that Weber won’t play again, Montreal essentially got him for nothing. Vegas desperately needed cap space, so they were motivated sellers, but it’s also fair to note that Dadonov hasn’t quite lived up to his present $5 million cap hit. Even with his strong finish to 2021-22, he recorded an okay, but not special 20 goals and 43 points in 78 games. In recent years, he’s simply been a middle-six winger and secondary scorer. He did have 65 and 70 points in 2017-18 and 2018-19 respectively while playing primarily with Aleksander Barkov back in his Florida days, so it’s hard not to wonder if there’s a world in which Dadonov finds some of that former glory while playing alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Keep in mind though that he’s 33-years-old and those campaigns were the only two examples of him even reaching the 50-point milestone. Certainly, keep an eye on him. He’s a skilled forward who has a real opportunity in Montreal and some added motivation given that he’s in the final season of his contract. Good things could happen here. Just don’t expect the world from him.

Mike Hoffman

From 2015-16 through 2019-20, Hoffman scored over 20 goals and 50 points every season, thanks in no small part to his success on the power play. At his height in 2018-19, he tied for fourth in the NHL with 17 power-play goals and tied for sixth with 35 power-play points. He missed those 20-goal and 50-point marks in 2020-21, but of course it was a shortened season. With 17 goals and 36 points in 52 contests, he was still on the right pace and his bread-and-butter remained the power-play. So when Montreal signed him to a three-year, $13.5 million contract in the summer of 2021, they were doing so with the justifiable belief that he’d be an important part of their offense. That didn’t end up being the case. Despite getting a healthy 17:03 minutes per game and a major role on the power play, he was limited to 15 goals and 35 points in 67 games. In terms of goals-per-game and points-per-game, 2021-22 was his worst season since 2013-14. That decline was largely a result of him taking a step back on the power play. He was limited to four goals and 13 points with the advantage. To be fair, Montreal as a team was abysmal on the power play, so it wasn’t a specifically Hoffman problem. It’s also worth noting that he’s one of the players who benefited from the coaching change. He had seven goals and 14 points in 30 games under head coach Dominique Ducharme then eight goals and 21 points in 37 contests with Martin St. Louis. While there might be a temptation to assume Hoffman’s down campaign is the start of his decline with age, there were mitigating factors and him bouncing back this season wouldn’t be shocking.

Christian Dvorak

When Montreal sent a 2022 first-round pick and a 2024 second rounder to Arizona on Sept. 4, 2021, in exchange for Christian Dvorak, they were hoping to get a solid two-way center who could slot into their second line. Dvorak had made strides with Arizona in 2020-21 and he was still young enough to have some potential upside. At the end of the day though, Dvorak had a mixed season with Montreal. He had 11 goals and 33 points in 56 contests, which is a new personal best for him in terms of points-per-game, but it was thanks to an extremely hot finish. From April 7 onward, he scored two goals and 13 points in 12 contests. Before that, the 2021-22 campaign was shaping up to be a disappointing one for him. He’s no stranger to having one or two hot streaks help define his season. In 2020-21 he started the season on a tear, scoring seven goals and 13 points in 12 contests before following it up with a stretch of just two goals and four points in 21 games. Those kinds of extremes can be frustrating, and the hope is that the 26-year-old will start to find consistency to his game. He’ll need to if he’s going to stay in a top-six role because newcomer Kirby Dach is projected to fight with him throughout the season for the second-line center slot. Overall, there’s plenty to like about Dvorak’s game. He’s great on the faceoff, responsible at his own end, and can even help kill penalties. If he can be the offensive force he’s shown flashes of on top of that, then he’ll be a steal at his current $4.45 million cap hit. That’s a big if though.

Rem Pitlick

Sometimes the right opportunity at the right time can make all the difference, just ask Pitlick. Going into the 2021-22, Pitlick had tastes of the NHL during his time with Nashville, but he could never earn a spot with the team. He joined the Minnesota Wild and was doing his part, scoring six goals and 11 points in 20 games even while averaging just 9:42 minutes. He couldn’t find an opening with the Wild though and they ultimately waived him on Jan. 11. Montreal, with nothing really to lose at that point, decided to take a chance on Pitlick and went all-in, giving him an average of 17:17 minutes per game. He responded well, scoring nine goals and 26 points in 46 contests. Montreal proved to be a good fit, but expectations for him going forward should be tempered. For one thing, he’s already 25-years-old, so he’s not a prospect and his upside is limited. At 5-foot-11, 196-pounds, he’s also not the biggest of forwards and he doesn’t play a physical game. His puck possession numbers last season left plenty to be desired too, with him finishing with a 43.5% and 43.3% 5v5 Corsi and Fenwick respectively and his relative Corsi/Fenwick were well in the negatives during his tenure with Montreal, suggesting that the team did better from a puck possession perspective when he wasn’t on the ice. It’s also important to note that he had a 23.1 shooting percentage, which seems unsustainable. There’s a lot of risk here and Montreal was wise to mitigate their commitment by signing him to a conversative two-year, $2.2 million contract.

Cole Caufield

Going into the 2021-22 campaign, the Montreal Canadiens knew they had a potential gem in Caufield. While he’s small by NHL standards at 5-foot-9, 162 pounds and doesn’t have much of a physical game, he has an amazing shot, and is a great skater. His offensive upside and in particular his goal scoring ability are close to top tier. He already had a taste of the NHL too, scoring four goals and five points in 10 regular season games in 2020-21 followed by eight goals and 12 points in 20 playoff contests. He consequently entered the season as a serious candidate for the Calder Trophy, but nothing went right early on. He recorded just one goal and eight points in 30 games under head coach Dominique Ducharme. When Martin St. Louis took over as the bench boss though, the transformation was instantaneous. He scored in his first game under St. Louis and ended up scoring 22 goals and 35 points in 37 contests with the new head coach. St. Louis said in May that the difference wasn’t the advice he gave Caufield, it was more about putting him in situations suited to his style of play. Perhaps it also helped that St. Louis was an incredibly successful undersized forward during his playing days, so he has a lot of insight into Caufield’s unique set of strengths and challenges. Regardless of the reason, Caufield clearly worked well under St. Louis and given that the two are set to start their first full season together, there’s a lot to be hopeful for. He has the potential to be a great top line forward for Montreal for years to come.

Jonathan Drouin

When it comes to Drouin, his health has become a big sticking point. He had two wrist surgeries over the last two years with the more recent one coming in April and that’s contributed to him playing just 105 games over the last three campaigns. Whether his wrist troubles are fully behind him and how much undergoing multiple wrist surgeries will potentially affect his game even if he does stay healthy are significant X-Factors. Prior to this though, he was a solid top-six forward and given that he’s 27-years-old, he’s certainly young enough to come back from this. He had six goals and 20 points in 34 games last season and almost all those games were under former bench boss Dominique Ducharme before the team made offensive strides with head coach Martin St. Louis. The coaching swap is both a potential boon and yet another X-Factor. On the one hand, most forwards have performed well under St. Louis and Drouin could prove to be yet another example of that, but we also don’t know too much yet about how Drouin will be deployed under the new coach. It at least helps that Drouin’s versatile. He’s primarily a winger and that’s his likely role this year, but he can also serve as a center in a pinch, so St. Louis has options here. The last time Drouin had a truly normal season was back in 2018-19 when he scored 18 goals and 53 points in 81 contests. Even with all the question marks surrounding him, the potential remains for him to get back to that level.

Kirby Dach

Taken by Chicago with the third overall pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, Dach never worked out with the Blackhawks. Standing at 6-foot-4, Dach is a big center who skates well, can protect the puck, and is willing to play in front of the net. There’s a lot to like here, but he hasn’t performed as hoped. In 2021-22, he had nine goals and 26 points in 70 contests despite averaging 18:03 minutes. It gets worse than him just not performing offensively though. Dach is awful on the draw. Among players who took at least 200 faceoffs last season, Dach finished last with a 32.8% success rate. He struggled on the draw in his first two NHL seasons too and that raises questions about the viability of continuing to deploy him as a center. It’s also worth noting that while he does use his size to his advantage in some respects like positioning and puck protection, he’s not someone who throws his body around much. He had an unremarkable 49 hits last season, so while he has the size of a power forward, that’s not really what he is. And yet despite those downsides, he does have a promising offensive tool set. The Montreal Canadiens clearly see that there’s still potential here because on July 7 they sent the 13th and 66th overall picks to Chicago in exchange for Dach. There is an argument to be made that Chicago asked Dach to do too much, too quickly, and was matching him up against top competition before he was ready. If Montreal can ease him in a bit more, then that might be for the best in the long run. With that in mind, Dach might not have a breakout season in 2022-23, but we could see him take a meaningful incremental step forward.

DEFENSE

Mike Matheson

The Canadiens finally fulfilled Jeff Petry’s trade request over the summer when they traded him to Pittsburgh, but Habs fans should like the main player they got in return, Matheson. For one thing, Matheson’s a local boy who grew up cheering for the Canadiens, so he already has roots in the city. Beyond that though, he’s a similar type of defenseman to Petry, so he can fill in for a lot of what the Canadiens are losing. Matheson is a strong two-way defenseman with speed and is coming off a great campaign where he set career-highs with 11 goals and 31 points in 74 games while averaging 18:48 minutes. He also had a 53.8% and 54.5% 5v5 Corsi and Fenwick respectively, which is better than how the Penguins did without him, so he was an asset from a puck possession perspective. That said, he’s not everything Petry was. Petry was someone who could help kill penalties, but Matheson averaged just 0:14 minutes shorthanded last season. Both have height, but even at 6-foot-2, Matheson isn’t an especially physical defenseman. His 97 hits last season was a career high while Petry has recorded at least 140 in five of his last six seasons. We also don’t know if Matheson’s offensive highs will ever reach Petry’s, who hit the 40-point milestone in four straight campaigns from 2017-18 through 2020-21. So, in a one-to-one comparison, it’s not a perfect match, but Matheson is also in his prime at the age of 28 while Petry is already 34. Matheson matches the Canadiens’ timetable to compete better and if he can continue to play like he did last season, he’ll serve Montreal well. He’ll receive every opportunity on a think Canadiens blueline.

David Savard

Savard scored 11 goals and 36 points in 82 games in 2014-15. To this day that’s easily his top season in terms of offensive production and that will likely always be the case. Even the three goals and 17 points in 62 games he generated last season with Montreal is a bit more than is safe to hope for going forward. Fortunately, the Canadiens didn’t sign him to a four-year, $14 million contract back in July 2021 because of his work with the puck. Savard’s value lies at his own end of the ice. He’s defensively responsible as well as a penalty killer. He’s also got size, standing at 6-foot-2, 233-pounds, and he’s happy to employ it. He accumulated 134 hits along with 36 penalty minutes last season and those numbers are par for the course for him. He’ll sacrifice himself too, ranking second on Montreal in blocked shots last season with 127. He’s the type of hard working, gritty defenseman that can inspire his teammates with his tough style of play. He’s also a nice veteran presence for the Canadiens to have as they rebuild. It helps that he saw what it takes to win as a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s 2020-21 Stanley Cup-winning squad. He won’t make headlines, but he’ll play a role with the Canadiens this season.

Joel Edmundson

The 2021-22 campaign was largely a write off for Edmundson. He didn’t even make his season debut until March 12 due to a back injury. The silver lining is that he settled back into his regular role for what was left of the season, averaging 19:35 minutes, including 2:26 shorthanded minutes. Unfortunately, injuries are nothing new for Edmundson. He hadn’t had an extended absence like that before, but the 29-year-old has also never logged 70 games in a single season. To an extent, that goes hand-in-hand with the kind of game he plays. The 6-foot-4, 227-pound blueline is a physical player and he’ll block a good deal of shots too. Even after missing most of the campaign with his back issue, he still recorded 45 blocks and 61 hits in 24 games. He tends also get into trouble with the refs a fair amount, which can be a bit of an issue given that he’s supposed to help kill penalties, but it’s been part of who he is throughout his career and it’s not likely to change now. The trade-off is that he helps protect his teammates and on occasion he’ll even drop his gloves. With some young defensemen such as Jordan Harris and Justin Barron potentially getting full-time roles with the Canadiens next season, Edmundson could end up as a mentor and something of a protector for them on the ice. Just don’t look for Edmundson to get many points along the way. He set a career-high in 2019-20 with 20 points in 68 contests and he shouldn’t be expected to do any better this season.

GOALTENDING

Jake Allen

The Montreal Canadiens fell mightily after their impressive Stanley Cup Final run just a few years ago; with Carey Price forced to miss the majority of the season for personal and injury-related reasons, the Original Six club once again learned just how hard it can be to thrive without a goaltender capable of legitimately carrying them into contention. Unfortunately, that’s the task that Jake Allen will once again find himself saddled with; while he was originally acquired as a perfect tandem 1B to complement Price, he’s now responsible for ensuring that the team is able to hold their own against the myriad of goaltending talent scattered throughout the Atlantic and the Metropolitan Divisions.

The problem with Jake Allen remains his confidence; when he plays well he’s got incredible instincts and talent, but when he plays poorly he second-guesses his own positioning and ends up struggling to make reads and accurately swallow pucks. He thrives when he’s able to settle into a rhythm, which is both a strength and a weakness for the now-32-year old goaltender – because when he can’t quite find his pacing, he’s unable to utilize the agility and flexibility that helps him snag high-danger redirects and rebounded second shots. The good news, though, is that the Canadiens seemed to see their defensive systems settle into a better flow under head coach Martin St. Louis, who was appointed late in the 2021-22 season and will be at the helm from day one this year.

Projected starts: 55-60

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Jake DeBrusk’s surprising emergence, Andrew Copp, Josh Anderson, Nico Hischier, and more.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 04 Mar 2022 15:40:49 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Jake DeBrusk’s surprising emergence, Andrew Copp, Josh Anderson, Nico Hischier, and more.

OTTAWA, ON - FEBRUARY 19: Boston Bruins Left Wing Jake DeBrusk (74) skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Boston Bruins on February 19, 2022 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Early in the season, Boston Bruins winger Jake DeBrusk seemed lost and, seeking a fresh start, requested a trade. He did not get the trade and now has landed a plum role playing on the right wing of the top line alongside Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. DeBrusk is delivering results, too, putting up nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 22 shots on goal in the past seven games.

#2 One of the players getting a lot of buzz as the NHL Trade Deadline approaches, Winnipeg Jets forward Andrew Copp recently returned from injury and has produced 30 points (13 G, 17 A) in 48 games. He has also generated a career high 2.75 shots on goal per game and that offensive activity, paired with Copp’s ability to play just about anywhere in the lineup – center, wing, scoring line, checking role – explains why the pending unrestricted free agent is drawing a lot of trade interest. For fantasy managers, it might be worth a speculative add of Copp now, before he lands in a new home where his offensive upside could get a boost.

#3 Sticking with Winnipeg, Jets center Adam Lowry is offering enough offense recently to have some fantasy appeal. In the past seven games, Lowry has six points (4 G, 2 A) and he has put up 157 hits in 54 games so if there is any kind of adequate scoring contributions, Lowry’s hit totals could make him appealing in deep leagues.

#4 Montreal Canadiens right winger Josh Anderson recorded a hat trick in Winnipeg Monday, giving the power horse seven points (6 G, 1 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past seven games. There has been some discussion about whether the soon-to-be-rebuilding Canadiens would move Anderson but if he is scoring, there is likely a spot for him in the Montreal lineup because his physical play serves as a strong complement to linemates Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.

#5 Columbus Blue Jackets right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand quietly goes about his business and, with nine points (6 G, 3 A) and 27 shots on goal in the past 11 games, Bjorkstrand is up to 18 goals in 52 games. For fantasy managers, Bjorkstrand adds value with his physical play, delivering 59 hits in 52 games. His career high is 64 hits in 82 games during the 2017-2018 season, so it seems very likely that Bjorkstrand will surpass that number while scoring 25+ goals by season’s end.

#6 While Jack Hughes gets more of the spotlight in New Jersey, Nico Hischier is giving the Devils another scoring option in the middle of the ice. In his past nine games, the Devils captain has produced 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 23 shots on goal, thriving on a line with Pavel Zacha and Jesper Bratt.

#7 Devils rookie Dawson Mercer has recently been moved to right wing on the top line, skating with Jack Hughes and Yegor Sharangovich. Mercer has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past eight games. That shot total is rather low, but Mercer is now tied with Nashville Predators winger Tanner Jeannot for sixth in rookie scoring with 32 points.

#8 A player for deep league managers to keep an eye on down the stretch could be Ottawa Senators center Colin White, who had missed most of this season after suffering a shoulder injury in the preseason. In his first three games after recovering from surgery, White has a couple of points but also has 12 shots on goal and has a role on Ottawa’s second power play unit.

#9 Anaheim Ducks veteran Adam Henrique is heating up, scoring six points (4 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal in the past five games. Skating on a line with Ryan Getzlaf and Troy Terry, the five-time 20-goal scorer is in a decent spot to provide offense for Anaheim.

#10 A four-point night against Toronto last Saturday lifted Detroit Red Wings defenseman Filip Hronek to 12 points (2 G, 10 A) in his past 17 games. With 28 points in 50 games, Hronek is now scoring at a career-best per-game rate (0.56 points per game).

#11 It is easy for rookie defensemen to get overlooked, especially if they are not Moritz Seider of the Detroit Red Wings, because Seider is a leading contender for the Calder Trophy. However, there are other freshman defensemen that are contributing offensively, too. Anaheim’s Jamie Drysdale (3 G, 20 A in 56 GP), Nashville’s Alexandre Carrier (2 G, 18 A in 49 GP), Los Angeles’ Sean Durzi (2 G, 13 A in 37 GP), and Toronto’s Timothy Liljegren (1 G, 10 A in 37 GP) are chipping in. Colorado’s Bowen Byram (5 G, 6 A in 18 GP) was impressive before his season was derailed by concussions. Arizona’s J.J. Moser (3 G, 7 A in 27 GP) has had positive early results, too.

#12 Although he does not score nearly as much as he did during the seasons when he quarterbacked the Buffalo Sabres power play, Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is a category monster. Since returning from the December schedule pause, Ristolainen has 81 hits in 20 games. The only defensemen with a higher hits-per-game average since the pause are Radko Gudas and Luke Schenn.

#13 Looking for a fresh start in Arizona, after a terrible start to the season in Toronto, Coyotes left winger Nick Ritchie has two points (1 G, 1 A), seven shots on goal and 12 hits in his first three games for the Coyotes. No need to race to the fantasy waiver wire for him just yet but Arizona should be invested in Ritchie having a role on their team next season so they might give him a good opportunity to play an important role down the stretch.

#14 With 14 goals in 53 games, Arizona Coyotes left winger Lawson Crouse is one away from matching his career high. He is also one of seven forwards to have more than 10 goals and more than 150 hits. The others are Nashville’s Tanner Jeannot, Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk, Washington’s Garnet Hathaway, Nashville’s Luke Kunin, Washington’s Tom Wilson, and Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno.

#15 In the history of the National Hockey League, there have been five seasons in which a forward has had less than five goals and more than 30 assists. One of those seasons is happening right now, as Blue Jackets winger Jakub Voracek has just two goals to go with 38 assists. That ratio is the highest of assists-to-goals for a forward ever (minimum 20 assists), surpassing Henrik Sedin’s 2017-2018 season when he had three goals and 47 assists.

#16 While the Boston Bruins have spent much of this season seeking a second line center to replace the departed David Krejci, they might have stumbled onto something recently with Erik Haula. The veteran forward has been skating between Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak and is on a five-game point streak, during which he has contributed seven points (2 G, 5 A).

#17 In his sixth NHL season, St. Louis Blues forward Ivan Barbashev has erupted, setting career highs in goals (17) and points (41). He has been a useful depth player for the Blues prior to this season but Barbashev’s ice time is up more than three-and-a-half minutes per game from last season and he has responded to the bigger role by producing. While Barbashev is not likely to keep scoring on 20.5% of his shots over the long haul, he also offers added fantasy value with 89 hits in 52 games.

#18 When looking at Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals for individual skaters, there are a dozen players that have exceeded their expected goals by more than six. That list includes Boston’s David Pastrnak, Columbus’ Patrik Laine, Nashville’s Filip Forsberg, Colorado’s Gabriel Landeskog, St. Louis’ Brayden Schenn, Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Buffalo’s Tage Thompson, Toronto’s Auston Matthews, New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt, St. Louis’ Jordan Kyrou, Detroit’s Dylan Larkin, and the Rangers’ Mika Zibanejad. Some of these players are elite finishers, so they should be expected to outscore the expected goals model, but they also might be due for some statistical regression, too.

#19 On the other hand, there are some notable forwards that are well below their individual expected goals. That group includes Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk, Toronto’s John Tavares, Boston’s Patrice Bergeron, Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher, Arizona’s Phil Kessel, Los Angeles’ Trevor Moore, Seattle’s Jordan Eberle, Vancouver’s Nils Hoglander, Calgary’s Mikael Backlund, as well as Edmonton’s Jesse Puljujarvi and Warren Foegele.

#20 At this stage of the season it can be difficult to find goaltending value on the fantasy waiver wire, but there are some backups worth keeping on your radar. Since the December schedule pause, Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (.947 SV%), Washington’s Vitek Vanecek (.937 SV%), St. Louis’ Ville Husso (.934 SV%), Ottawa’s Anton Forsberg (.930 SV%), Colorado’s Pavel Francouz (.926 SV%), the Islanders’ Semyon Varlamov (.923 SV%), and Minnesota’s Kaapo Kahkonen (.923 SV%) have all had positive results. Some, like Swayman, might be taking the starting role but most are still trying to carve out any kind of bigger role with their respective teams.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS -Tarasenko and Ovechkin look like their old selves plus much more.

Scott Cullen — Wed, 27 Oct 2021 22:21:43 +0000

Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Vladimir Tarasenko looks like his old self. Same goes for Alex Ovechkin. Points on Sam Bennett, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrei Svechnikov, Yanni Gourde and much more.

#1 While he apparently still wants to be traded, St. Louis Blues right winger Vladimir Tarasenko is doing his part to create a market for his services. After playing less than 13 minutes per game in the first game of the season, Tarasenko has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 22 shots on goal in the past four games. He obviously has a strong track record, as a five-time 30-goal scorer, but there have been concerns about his surgically repaired shoulder, but the way that Tarasenko is playing now – leading the league with 5.20 shots on goal per game, the shoulder does not appear to be a problem.

#2 The Washington Capitals have this winger who it turns out knows how to score a little bit. Alex Ovechkin is 36 years old and is off to the best start of his career. In six games, Ovi has 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and is still generating more than four shots on goal per game. His pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record is starting to heat up, even if it’s going to be years away, and part of the reason to believe is that 36-year-old Ovechkin is still hugely productive.

DETROIT, MI - OCTOBER 16: Detroit Red Wings Right Wing Lucas Raymond (23) prepares to shoot during the second period of a game between the Detroit Red Wings and the Vancouver Canucks on October 16, 2021 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI. (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire)

#3 Coming into the season, there were not a lot of rookies who looked like they would score at a huge rate as rookies. That might still be case in the end but, right now, Detroit Red Wings right winger Lucas Raymond has started his NHL career with seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal in six games. After scoring 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 34 games in the Swedish Hockey League last season, this has been an accelerated timeline on Raymond being a big NHL scorer but he is getting a first line shot alongside Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi, which is a pretty solid opportunity.

#4 When the Florida Panthers acquired Sam Bennett from the Calgary Flames, Bennett showed up in South Florida as a different player. He produced 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 10 games for the Panthers, but it was a small sample, and it would have been fair to expect him to fall of that pace. Early in this season, Bennett has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 22 shots on goal in six games.

#5 Anaheim Ducks defenceman Kevin Shattenkirk has been productive offensively early in this season, scoring three even-strength goals and adding three power-play assists in seven games. He is also getting caved in, with a 31.1 CF%, so he is riding some high percentage good fortune to that early point production but being on the wrong end of shot share to that degree should be alarming.

#6 The Winnipeg Jets did not get the best version of Pierre-Luc Dubois when they acquired him from Columbus last season, as Dubois stumbled his way to 20 points (8 G, 12 A) in 41 games. After a full offseason to prepare, Dubois has arrived ready to contribute and has seven points (4 G, 3 A) during a five-game point streak. He has scored on half of his shots so far this season, and that obviously won’t continue, but Dubois has stepped up with Mark Scheifele out and when Scheifele returns, Dubois figures to be the second line centre that the Jets thought they were getting last season.

#7 Columbus Blue Jackets captain Boone Jenner scored 30 goals in 2015-2016 but has not approached that level since and his fantasy value, if any, has been more closely aligned with hits and blocked shots. However, he is playing net front on the Columbus power play this season and has scored three of his four goals this season with the man advantage. Jenner is playing a career-high 20:20 per game so his role might be significant enough to give him fantasy relevance in 2021-2022.

(Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)

#8 Carolina Hurricanes winger Andrei Svechnikov did not break out he might have been expected to last season, but we might be a year late on the breakout season. The 21-year-old, who was the second pick in the 2018 Draft, Svechnikov has points in all five Hurricanes games this season, on his way to nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 24 shots on goal in those five games for a Carolina team that has won all five.

#9 Puck-moving defenceman Nate Schmidt had a disappointing season for the Vancouver Canucks last season, his only season with the team, but he appears to be responding well to a fresh start in Winnipeg. Schmidt has six assists in the past four games, so there is reason to be encouraged, but he is still on the wrong end of the shot battle (46.9 CF%) which should temper some expectations for continued success. So maybe the reasonable position to take is that Schmidt will be better than last season in Vancouver, when he had 15 points (5 G, 10 A) in 54 games, but probably not continue at his current pace of six points in six games.

#10 Seattle Kraken centre Yanni Gourde made a relatively quick return from offseason shoulder surgery, and not only does he have three points (1 G, 2 A) in his first three games, but he has nine shots on goal and is playing 21:57 per game, a pretty big increase over the 17:04 per game that he played in Tampa Bay last season – his previous career high.

#11 Now that Carter Hutton is injured, and out for the next 2-4 weeks, Karel Vejmelka has an opportunity to prove he is a legitimate NHL goaltender. The 25-year-old has an .899 save percentage in five appearances for the Coyotes this season after posting a .913 save percentage in 163 games in the Czech League. Ivan Prosvetov has been called up from the AHL, and he will see some action, too, but the Coyotes are not especially interested in winning this season so if their goaltending ends up being subpar, it really does not interfere with their main objectives.

#12 Chicago Blackhawks superstar Patrick Kane is currently out of the lineup while in Covid-19 protocol and will face scrutiny in the wake of the investigation into the Blackhawks scandal, but there has been a relentless pace to his production, even as the team around him has crumbled. Kane has five points (1 G, 4 A) with 24 shots on goal in five games.

#13 Notable forwards that have played at least five games and are still seeking their first point of the season: Tampa Bay’s Corey Perry, Toronto’s Nick Ritchie, the Islanders’ Zach Parise, San Jose’s Nick Bonino, Detroit’s Pius Suter, New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt, and Edmonton’s Kailer Yamamoto. From that group, Bratt was one of my favourite value picks coming into the season and he would still have a higher ceiling than some of those veteran options. Interesting to note that several of these players have changed teams and have struggled to produce early with their new teams.

#14 Forwards with the most shots on goal without a goal yet: Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf, Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher, Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov, Montreal’s Josh Anderson, Vancouver’s Nils Hoglander, Montreal’s Cole Caufield, Philadelphia’s James van Riemsdyk, the Islanders’ Kyle Palmieri, Calgary’s Johnny Gaudreau and Dillon Dube, Detroit’s Pius Suter, and Los Angeles’ Arthur Kaliyev. It is not hard to figure out why the Canadiens are struggling when Gallagher, Anderson and Caufield have combined for zero goals on 49 shots.

#15 While his early production has not been anything special, managing two points (1 G, 1 A) in seven games, Vancouver Canucks defenceman Oliver Ekman-Larsson has put 28 shots on goal. Four shots on goal per game leads defencemen (minimum five games played) and would easily be a career-high for Ekman-Larsson, who has not recorded 2.50 shots on goal per game since 2015-2016. That shot rate is enough reason to hold out hope for Ekman-Larsson this season.

#16 Seattle Kraken winger Brandon Tanev has scored five goals in his first seven games with the expansion team but while the goals have been welcome, it is not coming from a sustainable place. Tanev has scored on 38.5% of his shots and, on top of that, has not picked up any assists. He could still have the first 30-point season of his career, but this early-season burst is not something to expect from Tanev in the long run.

#17 Minnesota Wild defenceman Matt Dumba is producing early in the season, with four points (1 G, 3 A) in six games and all of those points coming at evens. Dumba is generating 3.67 shots per game, a massive increase on his 1.75 shots per game last season, so he could be more of an offensive weapon for the Wild this season after a couple of seasons with relatively mediocre production.

#18 One of my sleeper candidates coming into the season was Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Erik Cernak, who had 18 points (5 G, 13 A) and 98 hits in 46 games last season. Those numbers get him into the fantasy discussion for deeper leagues, but Cernak might have another category that gives him an advantage. While he has two assists in seven games this season, he also has 25 shots on goal, a massive jump after averaging 1.86 shots on goal per game through the first three seasons of his NHL career. If his shot rate stays high, even if not at its current lofty rate, Cernak can have stealth fantasy value.

#19 There have been some outstanding goaltending performances early in the season, from Columbus’ Elvis Merzlikins, Carolina’s Frederik Andersen, Buffalo’s Craig Anderson, Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky, to Dallas’ Braden Holtby. All of those goaltenders have a save percentage of .939 or better in the very early going this season and all of them would have been relatively suspect entering the season.

Merzlikins’ main concern was not having the strongest team in front of him.

Andersen had struggled with performance and injuries in the previous two seasons with Toronto.

Anderson is a 40-year-old who played four games for Washington last season.

Bobrovsky’s past two seasons in Florida have been well-documented and it looked like rookie Spencer Knight could steal the starting job.

Holtby has been in decline for four seasons and in the past two seasons has finished with a save percentage under .900. Mix that in with a crowded Stars crease and it did not look like a great time to be optimistic about the performance of Braden Holtby.

A couple of things: 1. Goaltenders are voodoo. 2. This is a very small sample of games for each of these goalies. 3. There is nothing wrong with grabbing the hot goaltender for a little while until that heat cools off.

#20 At the other end of the goaltending spectrum is Chicago’s Marc-Andre Fleury. He was not sure that he wanted to join the Blackhawks after he was traded from the Vegas Golden Knights in the offseason and has lost his first four games while posting a .839 save percentage. Combine that with the team’s problems on and off the ice and it has been a rather dramatic shift in fortunes for the 2021 Vezina Trophy winner.

TRADE TALK: Who Won the Max Domi for Josh Anderson Trade?

Alison Lukan — Wed, 19 May 2021 19:49:08 +0000

Last offseason, one of the more significant trades the hockey world witnessed came right before the Draft when the Montreal Canadiens traded Max Domi and a third round pick to Columbus in exchange for Josh Anderson. Anderson was coming off a season lost to injury (shoulder) and Domi was looking for opportunity to play in the center of the ice among the top six forwards. The trade gave them each a new home to prove their worth.

Now, as the regular season ends, one team (Montreal) is post-season bound, while the other plummeted to the bottom five in the league. But interestingly, both players finished their 2020-21 campaign with the exact same number of points. Anderson scored more (17-7—24) while Domi provided more helpers (9-15—24).

If the players’ box scores are the same, but the team results are so disparate, did one team “win this trade” or was each player just a piece in two different team’s journeys?

Let’s take a look.

First Impressions

Let’s look at how the players performed compared to their career averages, as well as compared to their last season immediately preceding the trade in a few key individual measures in all situations.

What we see is that Anderson held pretty true to form, while Domi definitely had a down year. It’s worth noting however, that Anderson got a huge boost in shooting percentage this season…of course, after last year saw him finishing at just a rate of 1.9-percent, that factors in, but he was actually shooting less while putting pucks in the net more.

Early on, it looks like Montreal got the player that they thought they were getting. But an individual effort does not a successful trade make. Let’s look at how each player contributed to their team’s efforts.

The Ask and The Answer

A trade isn’t just made because of what a player can do, but also because of what she or he can do within the structure of the team to which they are being traded. Both teams made clear what spot was open for their newest additions: Anderson went to a team coveting a power forward who was also offensively skilled. While Domi went to a Blue Jackets squad that wanted to see him make the full-time move to center and fight for a top-six spot at that.

Let’s take a look at what – if anything – changed in terms of each player’s usage and resulting production using visuals from HockeyViz.com.

Viz via Micah Blake McCurdy, HockeyViz.com

We see that Anderson stayed right about where he’d been playing and while he experienced an early burst in offensive production, it still leveled out to be mostly in line with the majority of his career. Domi on the other hand saw his usage completely change for the worse. He moved back and forth between wing and center, and saw his ice time decrease mightily including two healthy scratches late in the season.

Further, if we look at team performance with each player on the ice, while Domi’s team struggled, Anderson saw his team produce more while preventing opponents from producing. In fact, Anderson was on one of the top ten forward lines in the league this season according to MoneyPuck.com.

Let’s be very clear, this doesn’t hang an entire team’s success or failure on the player in question. Rather, it raises the question of the fit of each player coming to their new team and begs the question of how they were able mesh with the new organization and vice versa. In this case, the match between Anderson and Montreal was more successful than that between Domi and Columbus.

What’s Next?

The short term returns are in on this trade, but both players involved aren’t done playing hockey after this year. Domi has one more year on the contract he signed with Columbus just after the trade that comes with a $5.3M cap hit. Anderson comes in at an oh so slightly higher $5.5M per year for six more seasons, also signed just after Montreal acquired him. How does this trade look down the road? Is there a clear winner?

Let’s take a look at each player’s projected impact using Dom Luszczyszyn’s Game Score Value Added (GSVA).

First up – Anderson.

Viz via Dom Luszczyszyn

Anderson comes into this new contract already feeling the impact of his “lost season” during 2019-20. From there, as with all players, age brings a projected decline in performance. For Anderson, specifically, while his contract is still an overpay, he’s expected to hold onto a top nine position for the majority of his contract.

Now, Domi.

Viz via Dom Luszczyszyn

While Anderson’s biggest drop in GSVA occurred before his current contract, Domi suffered his this past season. But interestingly, the two players going forward fall more or less in line with one another as far as projected value. The variance is just enough, however, to shave one year off Domi’s projected top nine viability and never truly cements him as a top six player.

We also see here in the metric breakdown for each player much what we saw in their current performances this season: Domi contributed more in playmaking and driving offense while Anderson measures out to produce more offense directly while also balancing his game with a better defensive impact.

The difference that may have the most significance, however, is term. Whereas Columbus has Domi under contract for just one more year – allowing for some readjustment of terms should performance dictate – Anderson’s contract runs the life of Luszczyszyn’s projection resulting in a far larger overall negative impact (minus-$15.2M / minus-4.5 wins) compared to Domi’s minus-$2.0M and minus-.6 wins.

Overall

So which team “won” this trade?

Short term, it appears Montreal did because they got the player they thought they were getting based on past performance and have played him in a role that has allowed him to flourish. Columbus made a bigger ask of the player they received and thus far, the response has not consistently been present.

Long term however, the answer may change. Columbus has an out clause if Domi isn’t what they thought they were getting; of course, they are then left with a hole to fill on their roster. But conversely, any decline in Anderson’s game bears the burden of a longer (and thus more expensive) contract.