Josh Currie – McKeen's Hockey

AHL Calder Cup Playoff Preview – Western Conference

Tom Dorsa — Wed, 17 Apr 2019 14:07:47 +0000

The Calder Cup Playoffs are upon us again, and in the Western Conference, we are seeing a lot of changes from the picture painted last season. The defending conference champions, the Texas Stars, failed to make the playoffs to defend their 2018 West title as one of five teams that competed in last season's Western Conference bracket that couldn't repeat as postseason teams.

Those teams are the Stars, Manitoba Moose, Rockford IceHogs, Tucson Roadrunners, and Ontario Reign. But with old teams and players out, new teams and players come in, setting up to shine under the bright lights of the Calder Cup Playoffs. The Iowa Wild, Milwaukee Admirals, San Diego Gulls, and Colorado Eagles (in their first season as an AHL team) are seeking to wreak havoc on the American Hockey League after missing out on a chance last season.

And in the case of Iowa and Colorado, this is their first postseason appearance in the history of the franchise's current setup. Fans in Des Moines and Loveland will get to see enthralling playoff hockey for the first time in the AHL.

Let's take a look at the first-round matchups in the Western Conference, as well as what to expect from the two teams in action. The playoffs begin on Wednesday, April 17.

Central Division:

CLEVELAND, OH - FEBRUARY 22: Milwaukee Admirals forward Eeli Tolvanen (11) on the ice during the first period of the American Hockey League game between the Milwaukee Admirals and Cleveland Monsters on February 22, 2019, at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

Chicago Wolves (44-22-6-4) vs 4. Grand Rapids Griffins (38-27-7-4)

The Wolves have the identity of a prototypical postseason club: they are a physical and experienced unit with good goaltending and even better coaching. It helps when they also have speed, skill, and depth, with four players (Daniel Carr, T.J. Tynan, Brooks Macek, and Tomas Hyka) on the active roster registering more than 0.9 points per game.

They led the Western Conference in goals for (250) and were second in fewest goals against (199). Head coach Rocky Thompson has done a marvelous job for the Vegas Golden Knights' affiliate since taking the job in the summer of 2017, after leading the Windsor Spitfires to the Memorial Cup title.

While the Wolves have some size on their blueline with Nic Hague (4th-ranked Vegas prospect), Jake Bischoff (5th) and Griffin Reinhart (16th), they lost the bulk of their offensive contribution from their rearguards when Erik Brannstrom departed for the Senators organization in the Mark Stone trade.

Grand Rapids comes in with their own set of issues, the most notable of which is their freezing cold home stretch during which the Griffins lost their last nine games of the regular season (eight in regulation). There was no real reason for this besides a plain late-season struggle, as most of their two-way players are still with the club, and there is no lack of talent.

Regardless, the Griffins have proven twice during their seven-year stretch of playoff appearances that there is a potential championship run within them. The 2013 and 2017 Calder Cup champions have the experience and depth to make a run regardless of the poor final stretch.

The Griffins will have to limit penalties due to their division-worst 78.5% penalty kill percentage, while also playing well at five-on-five, on account of their power-play being mostly ineffective during the regular season (14.2%).

Prospects to Watch:

CHI: C Cody Glass (1st): Glass has perhaps the highest hockey IQ of any 2017 NHL Draft picks, and scored twice (with a game-high six shots on goal) in his professional debut on Friday, April 5.

CHI: G Oskar Dansk (14th): The netminder had a superb regular season (26-9-4, 2.47, .911) and looks to be the goalie of choice for Thompson and crew heading into the 2019 postseason.

GRG: RW, Filip Zadina (1st): The sixth-overall pick in last June's draft made an ambitious jump to the AHL this season, and at 18, performed well (59-16-19-35). His speed and shooting will be a big part of any possible turnaround for the Griffins this postseason.

GRG: D Joe Hicketts (11th): He isn't as noticeable as other prospects on the Grand Rapids blueline, but Hicketts had a solid 2018-19 campaign (64-3-24-27). The undersized defenseman packs a punch for the Griffins and is very patient with the puck.

Prediction: Wolves in four games.

Milwaukee Admirals (36-24-14-2) vs 3. Iowa Wild (37-26-8-5)

After missing the postseason last year, the Admirals are back with a vengeance and are looking for their first Calder Cup since 2004. The Nashville Predators' primary affiliate has done most of their winning this season on the back of youthful and speedy prospects, which is often times a key to success in the playoffs.

Four of their top-five regular season scorers were on a team's top 20 prospects list in our preseason farm system rankings (Adam Helewka, Anthony Richard, Alexandre Carrier, Eeli Tolvanen). The Admirals are spearheaded by youth and electric forechecking assertiveness, which can be a lethal combination in the playoff hockey atmosphere.

It helps when you come into the first round on a red hot winning streak. In a tight Central Division postseason race, Milwaukee went 11-0-2-1 to end their season, fighting from seventh in the Central to second-place and home-ice advantage in round one.

The Wild, on the other hand, have been carried by some savvy and experienced veterans like Cal O'Reilly, Gerald Mayhew, and Kyle Rau, as well as a dynamic goaltending duo of All-Star Kaapo Kahkonen and AHL Player of the Week Andrew Hammond. But they won't have to lean on goaltending and experience all postseason long.

Head coach Tim Army has emphasized speed and hard work in the neutral zone all year long, and systemically, the Wild seem ready for the test. In addition, the Minnesota Wild re-assigned forwards Ryan Donato, Jordan Greenway, and Luke Kunin down to Iowa after the NHL season ended in St. Paul. The trio will assist in generating that speed and scoring from the top lines, pushing nominal top six forwards into middle six roles and thus providing great depth to the offensive attack.

The most intriguing matchup to watch in this first-round series is special teams, specifically the Iowa power-play versus the Milwaukee penalty kill. The Wild posted the second-best power play percentage in the league (23.8%) in the regular season, but will line up against an Admirals' penalty kill unit that erased a Western Conference-high 85% of penalties. Army and fellow first-year head coach Karl Taylor will have their hands full of each other's high-end special teams groups in this one.

Prospects to Watch:

MIL: RW Eeli Tolvanen (1st): Though the Finn didn't have the year expected from the Nashville top prospect, Tolvanen was great down the stretch. His timely scoring and playmaking will no doubt be a factor in the playoffs.

MIL: D Alexandre Carrier (8th): His offensive output has always been there, but in his third full AHL year, the 5-11" playmaker evolved as a complete d-man. His gaps and stick-quickness have taken major strides, and in a top-four role, will be essential to any long playoff run in Milwaukee.

IA: G Kaapo Kahkonen (7th): Kahkonen has had himself a splendid first season in the North American pros, and depending on his role in the playoffs (keep Hammond in mind), he could be playing for a spot with the NHL club next season.

IA: LW Jordan Greenway (3rd): Coming off a full season with Minnesota, Greenway's presence post re-assignment has already been felt (5-3-3-6) down the stretch. A massive and skilled forward, the 22-year-old plays a playoff style of hockey.

Prediction: Admirals in five games.

Pacific Division:

Bakersfield Condors (42-21-3-2) vs 4. Colorado Eagles (36-27-4-1)

The Condors made history midway through the 2018-19 season when they stormed through a 17-game winning streak, the second-longest undefeated run in the history of the AHL. They were lifted to the summit of the Pacific Division after being outside of a postseason spot before the streak, which speaks to their depth and attitude.

First-year Condors Tyler Benson (4th) and Cooper Marody (5th) have carried the club for the better part of the season, and the two leading Bakersfield scorers are extremely dangerous on the power play, where 43 of their combined 130 points have come, helping the Condors' man-advantage operate at a division-best 20.5% clip.

The Condors will have to lean on the aforementioned duo, as what they have in top-end skill, they lack in scoring depth. Bakersfield's next-leading point scorer after Benson (66) and Marody (64) is Joe Gambardella, who is 16 points shy of the top two. Along with Josh Currie, these four are the only ones on the roster with more than 40 points this season.

The Eagles, on the other hand, needed final-weekend drama and help to clinch a postseason spot. They won their final regular season game over San Jose and saw division rival Tucson lose an hour later to grab the fourth spot in the Pacific by one point.

Late-season grinds like that can inspire a team, though, and Colorado has a solid mix of veterans and young guns to generate momentum with in its first year as an AHL franchise. AHL ringers like forward Andrew Agozzino and defenseman David Warsofsky have been leaders at their respective positions and have alleviated the pressure on the Martin Kaut and Nicolas Meloche types for high-stakes moments like this: the first round of the Calder Cup Playoffs.

They have an elite penalty kill (84.1%), accrued after a lot of practice, as they also accumulated a Western Conference-high 1,114 penalty minutes in the regular season. The club will have to remain disciplined to have a shot in the first round, as they can ill afford to line the Condors up with power play opportunities.

Prospects to Watch:

BAK: D Caleb Jones (14th): After a frustrating rookie season in 2017-18, Jones has established himself as a top-pair fixture with much-improved two-way reliability, and still has his offensive chops ready to go.

BAK: LW Tyler Benson (4th): Plagued by injuries for much of his young career, Benson has finally stayed healthy for an extended period of time and is showing everyone just how good he is this season.

COL: RW Martin Kaut (4th): Another 19-year-old in the AHL, Kaut is highly intelligent and is due to start scoring goals after an unsustainably unlucky 9.7 shooting percentage during the season. He has been solid in all three zones this season, but the Eagles might need him to take another step up.

COL: LW A.J. Greer (18th): The former second-round draft selection had the best year of his pro career after inconsistencies before 2018-19, and his combination of physicality and smarts are a sight to behold.

Prediction: Condors in four games.

San Jose Barracuda (39-22-3-4) vs 3. San Diego Gulls (36-27-4-1)

The Barracuda have a set of advantages and disadvantages coming into their matchup with their rivals down Interstate-5 in California. One pro is their higher place in seeding, which grants home-ice rights, but a major disadvantage is their NHL parent club, the San Jose Sharks, being tied up in a playoff race.

At any time, some of the Barracuda's most important contributors can be recalled and leave the AHL team flat, such as occurred with Monday's promotion of Dylan Gambrell, the Sharks' third-ranked prospect and the 'Cuda's fourth-leading scorer. However, this club is still very skilled, especially from the blue line going forward. Nick DeSimone is one of the finest offensive defensemen in the league, and Kyle Wood is a rock in his own zone.

Unheralded forward prospects like Alexander True and Francis Perron have jumped into the spotlight this season and can provide plus value as the team's top two scorers in the regular season.

After missing the playoffs on the last night of the 2017-18 season, the Gulls cleared the playoff bubble and secured a return appearance to the postseason this spring. The club has been led by several once-valued prospects that were given up on by their previous franchises (Sam Carrick, Chase De Leo, Justin Kloos), as well as emerging home-grown prospects like Sam Steel and Troy Terry.

Either way, this team is pretty young and just as exciting. Though Terry is done for the season (non-displaced leg fracture), Steel and other top prospects like Kalle Kossila and Max Jones will have to carry the water of a rather juvenile club.

The Gulls scored the second-most goals in the division (239), are solid on special teams (20.3 PP%, 80.9 PK%), and have solid veteran goaltending with Kevin Boyle and Jeff Glass in net. This is a team without a clear, deadly weakness. They also have the same amount of wins at home as they do away from San Diego (18) which will pay off when the series shifts to Northern California.

Prospects to Watch:

SJ: LW Francis Perron (not ranked): Packaged as part of the Erik Karlsson trade, the forward has been another reason as to why the Sharks won the September transaction. On the Barracuda top line, the 22-year-old has been better than ever in the regular season.

SJ: C/LW Jayden Halbgewachs (12th): The leading scorer in the WHL last season had a major test jumping into the pros, and it all pertained to whether he will be able to score at will in the AHL, as he did in junior. While he didn't have the best regular season on offense, a big playoff run in the San Jose top-six can help his case.

SD: C Sam Steel (1st): Though Steel has not had an ideal season after making the big-league club out of training camp, he still posted solid numbers as a 21-year-old in the AHL (53-20-21-41). He can impact the game with or without the puck with his great rink sense and beautiful shot.

SD: D Josh Mahura (6th): Mahura has made monumental leaps to his defensive game after being mostly an offensive specialist in the WHL, and should pencil into the bottom-four of the San Diego postseason lineup.

Prediction: Gulls in four games.

How the Rest of the West Playoffs Will Unfold:

Western Conference Semifinals: Milwaukee Admirals over Chicago Wolves, 4-2.

Bakersfield Condors over San Diego Gulls, 4-1.

Western Conference Finals: Bakersfield Condors over Milwaukee Admirals, 4-3

The wonder of Jonathan Drouin & mathematics

David Burstyn & Iain Morrell — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 14:24:41 +0000

As this season races for the mid-March finish line, the QMJHL scoring race is shaping up to be a real dogfight between five main contenders - and perhaps more.

Projecting the stats based on season point-per-game (PPG) averages, there could be a four-way tie for the crown at 109 points.

The current leader Ben Duffy of the PEI Rockets sits with 82 points and projects to record another 27 points based on his 1.61 PPG with 17 games remaining. Ditto PEI sidekick Josh Currie, sitting a point back of Duffy - and another overager, Peter Trainor of the Rimouski Océanic, one back of Currie - and headed for the 105-point range - based on his 1.54 PPG mark.

Their main challenger may be Dmitrij Jaskin of Moncton, among the most-improved drafted players on the junior circuit, and currently scoring at a sizzling 1.88 PPG clip. At this pace, the St. Louis Blues prospect will add another 32 points to his current tally of 77 - and finish tied.

The math is creepy.

Though the biggest threat might be 17-year-old Halifax wunderkind Jonathan Drouin, currently humming at a dizzying 2.09 points per game which would translate to another 38 points to his current 72 points.

Something else is a bit eerie about this particular ensemble - namely that the top three in question were all born in March - Duffy (3-3-92), Jaskin (3-23-93), and Drouin (3-28-95).

Okay, it's probably nothing, but someone might enjoy a nice birthday gift!

Others possibly entering the fray include Drouin's running mate with the Mooseheads - and prime contender in the 2013 NHL Draft this summer - Nathan MacKinnon. Based on a season PPG average of 1.70, MacKinnon projects to finish at 99 points.

Of course, this quickie analysis only considers season averages and doesn't statistically factor how the players have fared recently.

Another wildcard is Val d'Or sniper Anthony Mantha, the current league goal leader with 42, who projects to finish with MacKinnon at 99 points.

It's highly improbable the scoring crown goes to anyone outside this upper group of seven.

----------------

Jonathan Drouin (LW-C, 2013), Halifax

Blazed a trail with the Midget program at Lac St.Louis, averaging over two points per game, prior to forgoing a verbal commitment to Boston College .. selected second overall in the 2011 QMJHL Entry Draft behind MacKinnon, with whom he shares great chemistry .. not only keeps up with skilled players, but also complements them with his superior puckhandling skills .. dangles with the puck as if it were on a string .. quite undersized by NHL standards, however his family is quite tall and his older brother underwent a big growth spurt - six inches - prior to turning 18 .. lack of size may be the lone attribute missing here however, as he is an absolute tyrant in the offensive zone .. his hockey sense plus his ability to manufacture offence are a potent mix that separates him as a player .. head is always up .. extremely gifted puckmover with patience and poise .. hard on the puck for his size - and difficult to dispossess .. can thread the needle on a pass - waiting that extra second to let a play unfold - or open up a goalie and gingerly slide the puck through the opening .. very calculating - like a chessmaster evaluating options in the offensive zone as he waits for the pieces to fall into place before committing .. not the most courageous - yet equipped with an innate ability to sense danger, elude hits, and dispose of the puck before the opposition can get a read on him .. does a good job of disguising his actions by the manner in which his blade is turned - making goalies unsure whether he will pass or shoot .. can be a little perimeter at times and doesn't attack or drive the net - and there's also not much push-back to his game .. deceptively fast and agile - able to blow by opponents endowed with staggering levels of quickness - plus the capacity to shift between those different gears effortlessly .. darts into scoring areas making sudden rapid diagonal cuts and quick moves .. hands are also lightning quick as is his shot release .. his versatility and ability to excel as either a centerman or winger - only adds value to the package.

Josh Currie – McKeen's Hockey

AHL Calder Cup Playoff Preview – Western Conference

Central Division:

Chicago Wolves (44-22-6-4) vs 4. Grand Rapids Griffins (38-27-7-4)

Milwaukee Admirals (36-24-14-2) vs 3. Iowa Wild (37-26-8-5)

Pacific Division:

Bakersfield Condors (42-21-3-2) vs 4. Colorado Eagles (36-27-4-1)

San Jose Barracuda (39-22-3-4) vs 3. San Diego Gulls (36-27-4-1)

The wonder of Jonathan Drouin & mathematics