Justin Holl – McKeen's Hockey

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS FLORIDA PANTHERS – A path opens up in the East for fortunate Leafs and surprising Panthers

Scott Cullen — Mon, 01 May 2023 17:28:02 +0000

TORONTO, ON - MARCH 29: Florida Panthers center Aleksander Barkov (16) plays the puck against Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) in the third period during the NHL regular season game between the Florida Panthers and the Toronto Maple Leafs on March 29, 2023 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Gavin Napier/Icon Sportswire)

TORONTO vs. FLORIDA

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2004 and have home ice advantage after the Florida Panthers pulled off a massive upset against the top-seeded Boston Bruins in the first round.

Now that they have broken the first-round seal, are the Maple Leafs ready to go on a Stanley Cup run? Can the Panthers carry their first-round magic forward? Ousting the Lightning and the Bruins, respectively, opens up potential opportunities for the team that can emerge from the Atlantic Division.

Forwards

Toronto’s high-priced forwards have taken plenty of criticism over the years for not rising to the occasion in the playoffs, but Toronto’s big dogs showed up against Tampa Bay. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander produced 13 goals and 34 points against Tampa Bay. The supporting cast matters but getting production from the stars at the top of the depth chart sets the foundation for a team to achieve success.

One of Toronto’s apparent strengths is that they have solid contributors beyond the core four. Ryan O’Reilly contributed seven points in the first round and Calle Jarnkrok moved up to play with Matthews and Marner. Rookie Matthew Knies added three assists and the Leafs controlled 57.4% of expected goals with him on the ice during five-on-five play.

Michael Bunting was suspended for three games in the series against Tampa Bay, then was a healthy scratch for Game 5, so he has more to offer, and it might be further down the depth chart because Toronto’s fourth line of Zach Aston-Reese, David Kampf, and Sam Lafferty managed 35.9% of shot attempts and 32.9% of expected goals during five-on-five play against Tampa Bay.

Matthew Tkachuk had an incredible season for the Panthers and carried that play into the playoffs against Boston. The Panthers’ winger put up 11 points and 22 shots on goal in the first round, with Florida controlling 63.4% of expected goals against Boston when Tkachuk was on the ice during five-on-five play. The Maple Leafs will need to find a solution to the problem that Tkachuk presents as a skilled and physical force.

Sam Bennett got into the Boston series in Game 2 and was an impact performer, with five points and 20 shots on goal in six games. Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, Eetu Luostarinen, and Anton Lundell all played solid contributing roles against the Bruins.

Maybe the most surprising part for Florida is that Aleksander Barkov had a hard time against Boston. He produced one goal and six points, but the Panthers only held 40.4% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Barkov on the ice. For a Panthers team that tends to lean on their stars, Barkov will need to elevate his game if they are going to advance.

Defense

After an up-and-down regular season, Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly stepped up and delivered an outstanding series against Tampa Bay. Rielly had three goals and eight points against Tampa Bay with Toronto getting 56.7% of expected goals and outscoring the Lightning 9-3 during five-on-five play with Rielly on the ice. Luke Schenn was frequently paired with Rielly and while Schenn struggled late in the regular season, he was excellent against Tampa Bay, with Toronto pulling 61.1% of expected goals with Schenn on the ice.

T.J. Brodie and Jake McCabe are an effective shutdown pair for Toronto, with McCabe providing a necessary physical element. Schenn and McCabe combined for 66 hits in the first round.

The third pairing was a trouble spot for Toronto against Tampa Bay. Justin Holl and Mark Giordano had just 40.0% of expected goals during five-on-five play and the Leafs were out-scored 9-2 during five-on-five play when Holl was on the ice against Tampa Bay. As a result, Timothy Liljegren and Erik Gustafsson were pressed into action in Game 6. It would make sense for Toronto to give Liljegren a chance to upgrade that pairing but it would not be a surprise for Holl to get a fresh start against the Panthers.

Brandon Montour’s breakout season continued in the first round against Boston. The right-shot blueliner put up five goals and eight points with 22 shots on goal. His confidence is soaring, and he is always ready to launch one-timers from the point on the power play. Montour has been paired with Marc Staal so that duo is vulnerable during five-on-five play. They had 40.5% of expected goals and were outscored 6-3 against the Bruins.

Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling formed an effective shutdown pair against Boston, controlling 55.1% of expected goals while the Panthers outscored the Bruins 8-2 with that duo on the ice during five-on-five play.

Josh Mahura was an under-the-radar pleasant surprise for Florida in the first round. Acquired off waivers from the Anaheim Ducks before the start of the season, Mahura averaged less than 11 minutes per game against Boston, but the Panthers earned 54.4% of shot attempts and 63.2% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Mahura on the ice. Radko Gudas stands out as the heavy hitter on this blueline, but he is somewhat vulnerable if he gets caught out there against speedy and skilled forwards.

Toronto’s group is steadier overall, but both teams have some question marks on the back end, which could ultimately cause problems.

Goaltending

Although he experienced some highs and lows against Tampa Bay, Ilya Samsonov ultimately picked up his first career playoff series victory. His save percentage was just .900, and he let in a few soft goals, but he had stellar performances in Game 3 and Game 6. Given his lack of a playoff track record, there is still plenty of uncertainty around Samsonov heading into this series, but he is clearly Toronto’s number one option with Joseph Woll in the backup role.

The Panthers opened the playoffs with Alex Lyon starting in goal against Boston and he had a .902 save percentage in three games, but Florida eventually turned to Sergei Bobrovsky, who is a high-wire act at this point.

Bobrovsky was erratic in games four and six against Boston and was excellent in game five and seven, ultimately backstopping the Panthers to three straight wins to finish the series. Bobrovsky has a .900 save percentage in 56 career playoff games, including .891 in five appearances this spring, so he is not an easy man to trust under these circumstances.

Goaltending is always important in the postseason, but it would be fair to say that both the Maple Leafs and Panthers have some uncertainty at the position heading into Round 2.

Special Teams

Toronto’s power play was among the best during the regular season and that carries over into the playoffs. During five-on-four play, the Leafs scored 12.48 goals per 60 minutes, ranking fifth among 16 playoff teams in the first round. Toronto’s big boys were firing on the power play, with Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, and O’Reilly all getting on the board against the Lightning.

Florida was closer to the middle of the pack, ranking ninth with 7.60 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. Tkachuk led the way with five power play points and Montour added a pair of power play goals against the Bruins.

Tampa Bay’s power play posed a problem for the Maple Leafs in the first round, scoring 10.92 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranked 10^th. However, that was still more successful than the Panthers, who allowed 15.31 goals per 60 minutes, ranking 13^th among playoff teams. A compounding issue for Florida is that they were one of three teams in the first round to spend more than six minutes per game playing four-on-five. By comparison, the Maple Leafs averaged 4:34 per game. That discipline could make a difference.

Conclusion

Toronto had some good fortune against Tampa Bay, picking up three overtime wins, including some in games that they did not necessarily deserve to win. For a team that is now a co-favorite to win the Stanley Cup and had a long drought of not winning a playoff series, they are in good position, but can hardly afford to look past the Panthers.

While Florida’s upset of the Bruins seems monumental because Boston just put up the most regular season points in history, the underlying numbers suggested that Florida was better than their place in the standings and they caught enough breaks to make the difference. If they could do that against Boston, who is to say that is couldn’t happen against Toronto? I’ll side with the Maple Leafs…cautiously. Maple Leafs in 6.

NHL: SZNAJDER – Defenseman moved at the NHL deadline – Puck-movers, retrievers and roster reshuffling

Corey Sznajder — Fri, 10 Mar 2023 15:52:26 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 01: Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Mattias Ekholm (14) in his first game as an Oilers defends his zone in the first period of the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Toronto Maple Leads on March 1, 2023 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

The trade deadline always brings out some interesting team philosophies. Sometimes it’s as simple as getting the best player available like the Devils getting Timo Meier or Toronto adding Ryan O’Reilly with the Blues falling out of the playoff race early. Then there’s those moves around the margins that look like depth adds at first glance but can really payoff in the post-season. Vegas adding Ivan Barbashev to bolster their forward depth being a good example of that.

It's always interesting to see which players teams target at the deadline and what skillsets they value heading into a playoff run. This is especially true with defensemen, which is probably the biggest game of “choose your own adventure” in hockey. Good team defense is more about having all five players dialed in and understanding their assignments, but the two blue liners are always going to shoulder more of the burden even if it’s not always their fault. This is where teams run into problems at the deadline.

Everyone wants to add defensemen, but there’s a bigger risk of not getting what you bargained for when you’re taking someone from a different system and making him play 20+ minutes a night in high leverage situations. Sometimes you get situations like Ben Chiarot on the Florida Panthers last year, where a defenseman who is more suited to patrol the front of the net and deliver hits is playing in a system where most of the game is played off the rush. It becomes fitting a square peg into a round hole and becomes a part of a roster you have to work around instead of playing to your strengths. Compare that to Tampa Bay getting David Savard two years ago, who was mostly asked to kill penalties and play lower in the lineup with Mikhail Sergachev as his safety valve, and it’s a much more natural situation where a player with a specific skillset is filling a certain role.

It’s tough to avoid these pitfalls because everyone looks for different skillsets in defensemen and it becomes more difficult the fill gaps higher in the lineup. A guy who can make a beautiful stretch pass and put up points on the power play might not be suited to play over 20 minutes a night against top lines while the defender who hits hard but struggles to move the puck might hinder your team’s offense. A defender who might be good at defending zone entries could be benefitting from a system that has a tight neutral zone forecheck or help from forwards. It becomes a complicated puzzle that can either win or cost you a playoff series.

Something that most defensemen eventually have to do, though is retrieve the puck. Whether it’s chasing a dump-in, getting it off the wall or freeing the puck for a teammate, clean puck retrievals are how most games are decided. In this study looking at every goal scored in the 2021-22 season, about 65% of five-on-five goals scored off the rush started in the defensive zone, with 32.5% coming off a retrieval against a forecheck. In addition to that, 42% of all five-on-five goals last year were scored off an offensive zone turnover or a retrieval, which shows the importance in this part of the game. Even if you’re not starting a rush, negating a forecheck or flipping possession can be just as important, especially with defending the lead.

Defensemen are always going to be heavily involved in this part of the game regardless of their skillset and it’s where chemistry and complementary skillsets can really make a difference. One defenseman can take the hit while the other makes the play, or one can stand up at the blue line while the other goes back to clear the puck. We can start to see the value of things like “making a good first pass” or “making the forwards job easier.” Few players demonstrate this better than Edmonton Oilers deadline pickup Matthias Ekholm:

A mainstay in Nashville for years, he’s had a pretty thankless role of soaking up some of the tougher minutes so that Roman Josi can spend as much time as possible way from forecheck pressure and in the offensive zone. He’s part of the newer wave of shutdown defensemen who use their skating, their reach and their agility to kill plays before they start (although he will block a lot of shots if he has to). He is one of the few that’s the complete package, because he could put up zero points and still bring you some value with how strong he is along the wall with killing plays.

The first clip shows what the Oilers are probably going to see the most reward from. Ekholm’s very good at taking the puck from a dead stop and making long, quick passes out of the zone to either lead the rush or flip possession. It might have more of a reward in Edmonton with McDavid on the receiving end of those passes than Nashville’s forward corps, so it’s easy to see the potential upside here. The other side of this is how good he is at drawing defenders to him and getting rid of the puck right as they’re about to check him. Using that strong upper-body to absorb contact and bait defenders into being over-aggressive on the forecheck.

The puck skill, however, is where the Oilers can reap the most value out of him. Their blue line isn’t bad but doesn’t have a lot of great passers out of the zone. This is where Ekholm might be able to add a dimension to the Oilers offense. Everyone knows how good McDavid is, but Ekholm getting him the puck could make it less of a one-man show and more of a quick-strike. Whether it can work in the playoffs remains to be seen, but Ekholm should be able to help Edmonton’s top guns catch other teams off line changes and work together in the offensive zone a little more than they do now. Tyson Barrie gave them some of that but was limited to a power play specialist after a while because he’s best as the second player in the rush rather than the one starting it.

Here we see both sides of what Ekholm can do for Edmonton’s transition game. He’s aggressive with how he defends the blue line, using his skates and his reach to kill plays and he’s very good at getting back to retrieve the puck himself to start the rush. This is a skill the Oilers don’t really have on their blue line right now and it’s not particularly easy to find either. The other thing is how he can cover for his partner struggling to get the puck out of the zone, in this case he rescues a botched exit from young Phillip Broberg to help the Oilers get out of the zone cleanly. He’s capable of playing both sides and making plays from awkward positions, so you can see how this was a perfect fit for Edmonton. Ekholm is going to be asked to stay back more times than not, but he’s such a good passer and a smart player that it shouldn’t negate his skillset.

With Ekholm, the fit with the Oilers is clear. It’s not as easy with some other teams, namely the Toronto Maple Leafs who completely shuffled the deck on their blue line. Out goes Rasmus Sandin, in comes Luke Schenn, Jake McCabe and Erik Gustafsson. Toronto has been trying to find a winning formula in the playoffs for ages and they are no short of options with nine defensemen currently on the roster. The big move is essentially replacing Sandin with McCabe, as Schenn and Gustafsson are likely just role players for now (although it’s nice to have NHLers waiting in the wings if injuries strike).

Players like McCabe are probably the toughest to get a read on if you don’t watch them every night. He has the reputation as a minute-eater, spending most of his career playing a top-four role on bad Buffalo and Chicago teams but he’s one of those players that’s more like a Rorschach Test for hockey fans because he spends so much time in his own zone. Some appreciate his skill while others focus on the mistakes. What is interesting is Leafs GM Kyle Dubas mentioned his puck-moving as a skill they valued in addition to his competitiveness. Basically, filling the Jake Muzzin role of a sizeable defenseman who isn’t a butcher with the puck.

Every team could use a player like that in theory, but what do the puck retrieval stats say and how does it work in the context of the Leaf’s defense?

So, this kind of backs up what Dubas is saying. McCabe’s very capable with the puck, he just struggled when he had to be the one going back to retrieve it. He was also pretty good at mitigating damage off the rush on a bad Chicago team, so that should bode well. This is also where he’s stood out the most in his first couple of games with the Leafs and you can see some of the qualities Dubas talked about.

McCabe isn’t going to totally kill the play when the rush is happening at full speed, but he’s engaging enough to disrupt Grade A scoring chances. The puck has to go through a couple of layers before it gets to the net and the Toronto goalies are only going to have to square up to one shot if he plays everything perfectly. You can also see him going for contact whenever a forward touches the puck and always looking for something to do to make the cycle harder instead of just patrolling the front of the net. The only downside is that Brodie might have to shoulder the burden with getting to pucks if McCabe is always going to be chasing the play, but it’s only been a few games so he should have time to adapt.

It’s an interesting playstyle for a defenseman more known for blocking shots because he’s more of the secondary/support mold than someone who’s going to be the first one back to take a hit. How he fits into Toronto’s depth chart is a little more encouraging.

If there’s a positive here, it’s that Toronto isn’t short on defenseman who can retrieve the puck. Brodie has been one of the better players in the league at this for most of his career and this is probably where McCabe ends up slotting long-term. Whether it’s a true shutdown pair or a duo that’s just soaking up defensive minutes remains to be seen, but the complementary skillsets appear to be there on paper. The rest of the lineup might be a bit of trial and error for Toronto. It seems like they’re putting a lot of faith in Justin Holl to continue being Morgan Rielly’s safety valve as Timothy Liljegren and Mark Giordano give them some decent puck-moving on the third pair. McCabe-Brodie could end up playing more of a factor than they pictured in another month.

What’s interesting is that Sandin brought some of the same qualities to the Leafs, but Toronto might value McCabe’s size and tenacity more in the playoffs. Teams are looking for whatever edge they can in the playoffs and the Leafs top priority seemed to be focused around building a pure shutdown pair with some puck-moving capabilities. They lose some passing skill with Sandin leaving, but maybe they saw that as a luxury and wanted more of an aggressive defender who can make a quick 10–15-foot pass instead than someone who is going to skate his way out of trouble. Whether or not this pays off depends if McCabe’s struggles in retrieving pucks is more from playing on a bad Chicago team than his own skill deteriorating. There’s also some value in minimizing damage when you can’t get to pucks or are up against a tough forecheck. That seems to be where McCabe will have the most value.

Retrievals are one area of the game you can’t really hide from, so it will be interesting to see how this works in action come April. Toronto is putting a lot of faith in blending complementary skillsets together without one star and their postseason fate is going to heavily depend on how their defense holds up in this area.

Stats are from allthreezones.com

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:49:24 +0000

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 26: Toronto Maple Leafs Center Auston Matthews (34) watches the replay of his 60th goal with Right Wing Mitchell Marner (16) during a break in the action during the regular season NHL game between the Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs on April 26, 2022 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.(Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Auston Matthews

The Hart Trophy winner, Lester Pearson winner, and back-to-back Rocket Richard winner just had career highs of 60 goals and 106 points in 73 games last season. He has 101 goals in 125 games over the past two seasons, 15 more than anyone else, which should comfortably label him as the best goal-scorer in the game now. Not only does he have an incredible release on his shot, but Matthews’ all-around game continues to improve. He had dominant possession numbers last season and generated a career-high 4.77 shots on goal per game. Matthews has rare shooting ability as it is, so if he is getting that many shots, the goals are almost inevitable. He will face criticism until his team achieves some measure of playoff success, but Matthews has reached a top tier of individual performance in the regular season. Another 60-goal, 100-point season is within range for Matthews, and it should not be taken for granted how exceptional it is that he can score goals at this rate.

Mitch Marner

Perhaps the ideal complement to Matthews on the Maple Leafs’ top line, Marner is a creative and confident playmaker who primarily fills the setup role but also increased his own shot output last season, averaging a career high 3.11 shots per game. In the past four seasons, Marner has accumulated 325 points, tied with Auston Matthews for eighth in total points. On top of his fantastic offensive contributions, Marner is a smart defensive player who kills penalties and, as a result, has averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game for three straight seasons. Marner is a better bet to score 30 goals now that he is shooting more and could tally 95 points. If he manages to stay healthy for a full season, a 100-point season is possible.

John Tavares

There seemed to be a lot of criticism for the Maple Leafs captain, especially considering he just had 76 points in 79 games. His possession numbers were negative relative to his teammates for the first time since his rookie season in 2009-2010. He is still a force on the power play and remains highly effective inside the tops of the circles in the offensive zone. Now that he is on the north side of 30, decline is likely to be a factor but for a highly skilled player the decline tends to be more gradual as opposed to crashing off a cliff. For that reason, Tavares should still be a productive option as a second-line center on one of the league’s highest scoring teams. Even with some decline, 75 points is a fair expectation for Tavares.

William Nylander

A brilliant talent who can be maddening and frustrating in one moment and a delightful game-breaker the next. When Nylander is on, he is unquestionably a star player because even on a Maple Leafs team that has its share of star players, there were many nights in which Nylander was the best player on the ice. He has a knack for getting breakaways, which helps him stand out. For a player who gets dogged by his inconsistent performance, it was heartening to see Nylander as such a productive player throughout the season. His longest scoreless streak was three games, which happened on three different occasions, and he ended up with career highs of 34 goals and 80 points. As great as that season was, it is probably reasonable to expect a little less from Nylander this season, something in the range of 30 goals and 70-75 points.

Michael Bunting

A favorite of Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas since his time playing junior hockey in Sault Ste. Marie, Bunting signed as a free agent with the Maple Leafs and reveled in his opportunity to skate on the top line alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Although he barely qualified as a rookie, Bunting was the leading rookie scorer with 63 points, and he finished third in Calder Trophy voting. While Bunting does not have the all-world skill of his linemates, he is a terrific complement to them because Bunting battles hard for loose pucks and fearlessly goes to the net. Bunting is also an agitator extraordinaire, able to get under the skin of the opposition with remarkable ease, and the Maple Leafs need a player who brings that feisty style of play on a regular basis. So long as he sticks with Matthews and Marner, another 60-point season is possible for Bunting, but he does come with downward mobility because any other line is not going to afford him the same quality of scoring opportunities.

Alexander Kerfoot

Although the 28-year-old did produce a career high 51 points last season, his underlying numbers were troubling, and he generated very few shots – 1.43 per game – for a player getting the opportunity to play with skilled linemates. Kerfoot spent more time on the wing which makes sense because he had won 44.0% of his faceoffs since arriving in Toronto. His low shot rates are a concern but if Kerfoot is going to spend most of the season playing with John Tavares and William Nylander, there is still room for him to contribute secondary scoring. Maybe that’s only a dozen goals, but he should also produce more than 40 points.

Calle Jarnkrok

Versatility has long been a strength to Jarnkrok’s game, as he has the ability to play any of the three forward positions and can do it in either a complementary offensive role or more of a checking role. That allows him to fit into a team’s middle six forwards and he was reasonably effective with Seattle last season but then had zero goals and four assists in 17 games with the Calgary Flames. He added a goal and three assists in the playoffs, so he ended up scoring a single goal in 29 games for Calgary. It is not as though Jarnkrok is a big-time scorer, since he has never scored more than 16 goals in an NHL season, but that poor production was not Jarnkrok’s best performance. He has had five seasons of more than 30 points in his NHL career and if Jarnkrok is going to have a top-nine role in Toronto, he should be able to generate 30-35 points. There is a good chance that his flexibility will allow Jarnkrok to play in several different spots throughout the season, depending on where there is an urgent need.

Pierre Engvall

After getting up to speed in the NHL for a couple of seasons, the long and lean 6-foot-5 left winger broke through for 15 goals and 35 points in his third NHL campaign. That offensive production raised Engvall’s profile because now he had a path to contributing more than he could in a fourth line role. Engvall plays a sound defensive game but, as he showed last season, the 26-year-old has the required skill to play in the top nine and on the second power play unit. That is the kind of internal development that any team would like to experience with a player who was once a seventh-round pick. While Engvall’s 35-point season was better than he ever had produced in a previous NHL season, his production was not inflated by high percentages, so it is reasonable to expect Engvall to score in the 35-point range again this season.

David Kampf

An excellent checking center who scored a career high 11 goals and 26 points last season, Kampf did benefit from a career-high shooting percentage of 10.8%, which was notably higher than his career mark of 7.5%. For whatever limitations he might have in his game, Kampf does fill the niche of a fourth line center who can kill penalties and take on the toughest assignments with defensive zone starts. Any offensive projections for Kampf need to be conservative, just based on his track record, but he could still deliver 20 points for the Maple Leafs from the fourth-line center spot.

DEFENSE

Morgan Rielly

The 28-year-old blueliner has anchored the Maple Leafs defense and has played more than 23 minutes per game in each of the past four seasons. He put up 10 goals and 68 points last season, both representing the second highest totals of his career. Rielly is a confident puck-moving defenseman who also has some defensive deficiencies. However, his offensive abilities tend to overshadow his inconsistent play without the puck. He had a 20-game stretch starting on December 1 during which he put up 26 points in 20 games and that kind of production will tend to gloss over missed defensive assignments. Rielly has had seasons with big offensive explosions – last season he had 68 points, in 2018-2019 he had 72 points – but those are aberrations. A forecast in the 55-point range would also incorporate some of the seasons in which Rielly’s point totals did not skyrocket.

Mark Giordano

Acquired from the Seattle Kraken before the trade deadline last season, Giordano has declined some as he is in his late thirties but remains a highly effective player. He finished last season with 35 points after tallying 12 points in 20 games with the Maple Leafs. He did not shoot the puck very much in Toronto, averaging 1.40 shots per game, compared to 2.24 shots per game in Seattle. The value to Giordano, especially at this stage of his career, is that he can still move the puck efficiently and play a reliable defensive game. He could match the 35 points he accumulated last season. While his on-ice shooting percentage (12.7%) was inflated at the end of the year with Toronto, Giordano’s on-ice shooting percentage (7.6%) in Seattle was on he very low end of his career range, so somewhere in the middle would still bring a productive complementary scoring defenseman.

T.J. Brodie

Even though he does not play as much of an offensive puck-moving role that he did during his peak years in Calgary, the 32-year-old defenseman adds some stability in Toronto’s defensive zone. While he can still move the puck, that is an aspect of the game that Brodie appears to have pushed into the rearview mirror. He still skates well and is a reliable defender, which should not be overlooked, but Brodie has surpassed 30 points six times in his career and finished with 28 points last season so it’s not out of the question that he could get to 30-plus points again with a few breaks.

Jake Muzzin

While Muzzin brings a physical presence that other Maple Leafs defensemen do not, he struggled during the 2021-2022 season. He and frequent partner Justin Holl were inconsistent together and it was the first time since 2016-2017 that Muzzin was outscored during 5-on-5 play as well as the first season of Muzzin’s career in which his team had better shot differentials when he was off the ice. As a 33-year-old who plays a physical game and has run into injury issues in recent seasons, it is possible that decline is setting in and Muzzin is simply not going to be the force that he had been previously. If that is the case, then maybe he becomes a reliable third-pair option, but he has played more than 20 minutes per game for eight straight seasons, so it would be premature to suddenly expect that Muzzin’s role is going to be reduced. The first option is probably to give him a bona fide chance to prove that he can perform better than he did last season. Health will determine Muzzin’s offensive upside but if he puts up 25 points while providing a strong physical defensive presence, that ought to be plenty valuable for the Maple Leafs.

GOALTENDING

Matt Murray

It was just two years ago that the Pittsburgh Penguins opted to finally part ways with goaltender Matt Murray, dealing him to the Ottawa Senators to free up their depth chart and give him an opportunity to rediscover his game on a more consistent level. In some ways, it seems like the move worked for Murray; he hasn’t backslid any farther in his development, and he had some stretches with the Senators last year where he appeared to have returned to the form he boasted when he made his league debut. But ultimately, the gamble the Senators made – hoping that a new environment would help Murray look more like the two-time Stanley Cup champion instead of the inconsistent backup he’d become – fell short; just two years into the four-year extension they signed him to back in 2020, they’ve moved him within division for what may end up being one final attempt to get his game back on track. He’ll try to put it all together under the tutelage of his long-time off-season coach Jon Elkin in Toronto, where the familiarity of a voice that’s familiar with his game and style will compete with the high-pressure environment presented by playing for the Leafs.

Murray’s quirks remain as dogged as ever, though. He still has a tendency to stay in motion until the puck arrives in the blue paint, which leaves him vulnerable to oversliding his posts and overshooting his positioning. It also makes it harder for him to effectively use his hands, as he lacks a grounded central position from which to make sharp glove saves and bat pucks away with his blocker; while his fluid movements keep him from looking too stiff or slow, he struggles with accuracy at a position that can’t afford mistakes made by inches. He should be granted a bit of relief, of course, playing behind Toronto after two years in Ottawa; while his own game was far from perfect, the porous defensive structure he backstopped left little room for him to smooth out the errors he needed to work away from. It was a tough scenario for a goaltender looking to bounce back; hopefully, the supercharged offense and step-up defensive roster he’ll move behind this upcoming season will help him level things out.

Projected starts: 40-45

Ilya Samsonov

It seems like it was only a few years ago that Washington was touting the Russian-born Samsonov as their next big thing. After falling short of expectations for just one too many seasons, though, the Capitals opted to start fresh entirely – and Toronto, seemingly in the market for reclamation projects under 30, were ready to welcome Samsonov into the fold to tandem with Matt Murray.

At his best, Ilya Samsonov has the speed and strength to get to even the least likely of shots – and he’s got the kind of aggression that leaves shooters unsure of just what he’s willing to do, challenging out to the top of his crease in a league where more and more netminders are opting for a more patient, conservative approach instead. Like Murray, though, Samsonov has a tendency to stay in motion past the point where he’d benefit from holding his edges and waiting for the puck to come to him; with the kind of wider, lower stance that goaltenders like Jonathan Quick and Sergei Bobrovsky favor and the kind of aggression that few outside of Alex Stalock embrace anymore, Samsonov leaves a lot of holes in his corners ripe for the picking. There will always be an element of ‘what if’ to Samsonov’s game; he was drafted when the expectation was that he would develop under the guidance of former Capitals goaltending guru Mitch Korn, who frequently had a heavy hand in selecting goaltenders for the team to acquire that would fit his development style well. Korn was off to the New York Islanders by the time Samsonov hit the NHL, though – and even though Scott Murray is a well-respected name as Korn’s replacement in DC, Samsonov never quite seemed to live up to the expectations his first-round selection status seemed to set. It’s likely he isn’t being brought into Toronto to be the heir apparent, as Matt Murray is an existing pupil of Jon Elkin already. But Elkin’s history of working magic with other energetic-but-uncontrolled names like Mike Smith in the past made it hard not to wonder just what he can do to help right the ship for Samsonov, as well.

Projected starts: 40-45

2022 NHL PLAYOFFS: TORONTO VS. TAMPA BAY – Leafs must go through defending Stanley Cup Champs to break long playoff drought

Scott Cullen — Sun, 01 May 2022 15:12:01 +0000

TAMPA, FL - APRIL 21: Toronto Maple Leafs Center John Tavares (91) is defended by Tampa Bay Lightning Defenceman Victor Hedman (77) as Tampa Bay Lightning Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) tries to look around them during a game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning on April 21, 2022, at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire)

TORONTO vs. TAMPA BAY

A look at the underlying numbers supports the notion that the Maple Leafs are a slightly better team than the Lightning, but it gets more complicated when it is put into context. That is, the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions are facing a team that last won a Cup in 1967 and has not won a round in the playoffs since 2003-2004.

There was no easy matchup to be had coming out of the Atlantic Division this year and one of the Leafs or Lightning is going to be very disappointed with a first-round loss.

Forwards

Toronto had six 20-goal scorers this season, led by Auston Matthews with 60. So much of the Maple Leafs attack runs through their big four forwards – Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander – but Alex Kerfoot, Ilya Mikheyev, and Pierre Engvall have been useful in supporting roles. Michael Bunting has been outstanding on the left wing with Matthews and Marner but is injured and may not be ready for the start of the playoffs. Ondrej Kase has been effective when healthy, too, and he is still trying to make his way back from a concussion.

The Lightning had to overhaul their third line after losing Blake Coleman, Yanni Gourde, and Barclay Goodrow last offseason, but they brought in Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul at the trade deadline and, along with Ross Colton and Corey Perry, the Lightning once again have some depth behind their stars. And their stars are proven on the biggest stage under the brightest lights. Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos are stars, while Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, and Anthony Cirelli are nice complementary pieces. Point was banged up late in the season and it would be a huge deal if he is not ready to go from the first puck drop in this series.

Defense

Toronto has been actively improving their blueline and the challenge now seems to be health and making sure they pick the right guys. Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, and Mark Giordano have all performed to expectations. Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl have both had question marks hanging over their play for most of the season. Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren have both been great while working on the third pair. That’s seven, plus Ilya Lyubushkin, who adds a physical edge and, suddenly, it’s not so easy for the Maple Leafs to use six when everyone is healthy. For all the grief that the Maple Leafs have taken for their defensive play over the years, they have excelled defensively this season, ranking sixth in score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts allowed and fourth in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes of 5v5 play. That’s the kind of defensive play that they will need to stymie Tampa Bay’s elite scoring forwards.

Victor Hedman is a perennial Norris Trophy contender, so the Lightning have that going for them. Ryan McDonagh, Mikhail Sergachev, and Erik Cernak have all proven to be big-time players in Tampa Bay’s recent Stanley Cup runs. Jan Rutta, Zach Bogosian, and Callan Foote provide the depth and the Lightning are only slightly behind Toronto when it comes in terms of shot suppression. Just as the Maple Leafs need their defense to respond to Tampa Bay’s top scoring forwards, the Lightning defense will have to neutralize Matthews, Marner, Tavares, and Nylander.

Goaltending

Early in this season, Maple Leafs goaltender Jack Campbell was playing at a ridiculously high level and there was nothing to worry about, at least until regression reared its ugly head and Campbell went through a long slump, followed by injury. He appeared to be back on track late in the season and the Maple Leafs will need him to play well just to escape the first round.

There is no team in the league that can have the same kind of confidence in their goaltender’s playoff performance as the Lightning do for Andrei Vasilevskiy. He did have an .856 save percentage in 2019 when the Lightning were shockingly swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round, but Vasilevskiy has a .924 save percentage in 81 career playoff games. He is a proven big-game goalie and that gives the Lightning an edge on virtually any team.

Special Teams

Toronto had the best power play in the league this season, scoring 10.23 goals per 60 minutes of 5v4 play. Having the league’s top goal scorer doesn’t hurt, as Auston Matthews has 16 power play goals, but John Tavares and William Nylander combined for 23 power play goals as well.

Tampa Bay’s power play has been above average, scoring 8.10 goals per 60 minutes during 5v4 play, but when it’s going, it is a terrifying experience, with Stamkos and Kucherov in opposing faceoff circles, ready to launch.

There is not much of a difference when it comes to penalty killing as the Maple Leafs and Lightning rank 11th and 12th, respectively, when it comes to fewest goals against during 4v5 play this season.

Conclusion

Statistically, it is easy enough to make a case for the Toronto Maple Leafs having a small edge over the Lightning based on the performance of the two clubs this season. However, that case gets more difficult when factoring in the relative histories of the two franchises. The Lightning have won back-to-back Stanley Cups and have the talent to legitimately vie for a third consecutive championship while the Maple Leafs are notorious for never getting out of the first round. Lightning in 7.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – A Look Back at the 2020-21 Season

Scott Cullen — Thu, 20 May 2021 19:33:41 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, a look back at the 2021 season and some of the underlying and sometimes just odd numbers for players during the 56-game season.

#1 Boston Bruins left winger Brad Marchand finished third in scoring with 69 points. He was a long way from first but, following offseason sports hernia surgery, Marchand’s longest streak without registering a point was two games, which happened twice. Since 2016-2017, Marchand ranks third in the NHL with 426 points, behind the two players that he was behind in this year’s scoring race, the Edmonton Oilers duo of Connor McDavid (526) and Leon Draisaitl (469). (Yes, that means that McDavid has 100 points more than any non-teammate over the past five seasons.)

#2 Although he had to take a leave of absence from the New York Rangers during the season, left winger Artemi Panarin ended up with 58 points in 42 games this season. Over the past two seasons, his first two with the Blueshirts, Panarin is averaging 1.38 points per game, which ranks third behind Connor McDavid (1.68) and Leon Draisaitl (1.53).

DENVER, CO - FEBRUARY 22: Vegas Golden Knights right wing Mark Stone (61) skates during a game between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado on February 22, 2021. The Colorado Avalanche wore retro-themed uniforms with logos of the Quebec Nordiques. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

#3 Vegas Golden Knights captain Mark Stone tallied 61 points, the sixth time in the past seven seasons that he has scored at least 60 points, and it was not a standard path to get there. In a shortened season, Stone needed a career-high 1.11 points per game to cross that threshold and he did it with a career-low 1.78 shots on goal per game. He scored on a career-high 21.4% of his shots and had a career-high on-ice shooting percentage of 12.1%.

#4 One of the biggest bounce-back seasons was authored by Chicago Blackhawks winger Alex DeBrincat, who tallied 32 goals and 56 points in 52 games after scoring 18 goals and 45 points in 70 games in 2019-2020. Hockey can be fickle, though. Last season, DeBrincat had 2.96 shots on goal per game and it improved this season to 2.98 shots on goal per game. Okay, that minor nudge does not explain the increase in goal scoring. Last season, DeBrincat scored on 8.7% of his shots. This season, he scored on 20.6%. He also played almost three minutes more per game compared to last season but it’s worth noting that DeBrincat had a higher shot and expected goal rate in all situations in the 2019-2020 season than he did in 2021 but sometimes the puck won’t go in the net. Other times, a sniper like DeBrincat can’t miss.

#5 Minnesota Wild rookie sensations Kirill Kaprizov had an outstanding rookie season, but it was a tale of two rookie seasons in one. Coming out of a KHL season in which he tallied 62 points in 57 games, a standard NHL equivalency would have pegged Kaprizov for approximately 45 points in a 56-game season. He exceeded those numbers, finishing with 51 points (27 G, 24 A) in 55 games. The rookie was putting up points immediately but was not generating shots. In his first 17 NHL games, Kaprizov contributed 16 points and 28 shots on goal (1.65 shots per game). In the next 38 games, he scored 35 points, including 22 goals, and generated 129 shots on goal (3.39 per game), more than doubling his shot rate.

#6 32-year-old St. Louis Blues winger David Perron had the first point-per-game season of career, scoring 58 points in 56 games. He averaged 18:33 of ice time per game, the second highest per-game average of his career.

#7 Looking to re-establish his value after a down season in Toronto, Edmonton’s Tyson Barrie decided that signing in Edmonton would work for him, and he was right. Barrie paced all defensemen with 48 points. Keep in mind that Barrie is going to be an unrestricted free agent in the offseason and that Connor McDavid recorded a point on 34 of the 48 goals (70.8%) which Barrie had a point. In Barrie’s 2017-2018 season, when he tallied a career-high 57 points for Colorado, Nathan MacKinnon had a point on 30 of those 57 goals (52.6%).

#8 36-year-old Dallas Stars center Joe Pavelski had a bounce-back campaign after a tough start in Dallas in 2019-2020. He finished with 51 points (25 G, 26 A), scoring 13 of his 25 goals on the power play. Since 2013-2014, Pavelski has 25 goals scored via deflections. Winnipeg Jets captain Blake Wheeler has the second most goals on deflections in that time with 16.

#9 There were five defensemen that had at least 15 points this season that recorded more than half of their points on the power play. Florida’s Keith Yandle (66.7%), Arizona’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson (58.3%), Montreal’s Shea Weber (57.9%), Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman (53.3%), and Los Angeles’ Drew Doughty (52.9%).

#10 On the other end of the spectrum, there were 60 defensemen to put up at least 20 points this season. Those with the lowest percentage of power play points were Toronto’s Justin Holl (0.0%), Toronto’s Jake Muzzin (7.4%), Florida’s MacKenzie Weegar (8.3%), and Nashville’s Mattias Ekholm along with Minnesota’s Jonas Brodin (both 8.7%).

#11 Minnesota Wild left winger Marcus Foligno had a career season, scoring a career-high 26 points in 39 games. Foligno had zero power play points. The other top even-strength scorers without any power play points: Winnipeg’s Mason Appleton (24), Montreal’s Phillip Danault (23), as well as the Rangers’ Filip Chytil (22) and Alexis Lafreniere (21). Minnesota’s Jordan Greenway had 31 even-strength points with one power-play point and Vancouver rookie Nils Hoglander had 26 even-strength points with one power-play point.

#12 There were 389 forwards that played at least 300 5-on-5 minutes this season. The leaders in individual expected goals per 60 minutes were Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher (1.30), Toronto’s Auston Matthews (1.14), Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk (1.02), Minnesota’s Joel Eriksson Ek (1.02), the Islanders’ Anders Lee (1.01), and Carolina’s Nino Niederreiter (1.01). Familiar names for this category but it also shows the difference between an elite finisher like Matthews and others who generate the shots and chances but don’t come close to Matthews’ goal totals.

#13 The forwards with the lowest individual expected goals per 60 minutes were Columbus’ Patrik Laine (0.26), Minnesota’s Victor Rask (0.26), Toronto’s Joe Thornton (0.27), St. Louis’ Tyler Bozak (0.30), and Winnipeg’s Nate Thompson (0.30). Seeing Laine at the very bottom of the list shows just what a disaster this season was for him. A fresh start, with a new coach, can’t come soon enough.

#14 Surprisingly, the most productive player from that early-season trade was Jack Roslovic, who scored a career-high 34 points (12 G, 22 A) in 48 games for Columbus. His ice time went up a couple of minutes per game compared to the 2019-2020 season in Winnipeg. His shot rate (1.77 per game) was a bit of a concern, too, but that appears to be virtually a team-wide issue for the Blue Jackets.

#15 Arizona Coyotes right winger Phil Kessel finished with a flourish and ended up with 20 goals and 43 points; it was the 12^th time in the past 13 seasons that Kessel scored at least 20 goals. He scored on a career-high 17.4% of his shots but he did improve his shot rates as the season progressed. In his first 32 games, Kessel had 20 points and 54 shots on goal (1.69 shots per game) and then scored 23 points with 61 shots on goal (2.54 shots per game) in his last 24 games.

#16 Anaheim Ducks winger Rickard Rakell scored nine goals in 52 goals, finishing with a career-low 6.3% shooting percentage. Over the past three seasons, there are 120 forwards that have recorded at least 400 shots on goal. The forwards from that group with the lowest shooting percentage: Boston’s Taylor Hall (7.7%), Rakell (8.0%), Columbus’ Boone Jenner (8.2%), Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk (8.7%), Dallas’ Tyler Seguin (8.9%), and Arizona’s Clayton Keller (8.9%).

#17 The forwards from that group that have the highest shooting percentages: Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (20.1%), Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point (19.2%), Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos (18.2%), Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele (17.8%), and San Jose’s Tomas Hertl (17.3%).

#18 Florida Panthers left winger Jonathan Huberdeau scored 19 points in the last 13 games to finish the season with 61 points, good for 12^th in league scoring. In the past three seasons Huberdeau ranks seventh among all scorers with 231 points.

#19 Pittsburgh Penguins center Jared McCann rose to the occasion when Evgeni Malkin was injured. McCann returned to the lineup a few days after Malkin was hurt and from March 20 through the end of the regular season, McCann scored 22 points (9 G, 13 A) in 26 games, giving him 32 points in 43 games. Just something to consider if the Penguins consider moving Malkin in the offseason.

#20 Finally, the Detroit Red Wings’ leading scorer this season was defenseman Filip Hronek, who had a modest 26 points in 56 games. Even more remarkable is that 17 of his 26 points were second assists. He had 11 more secondary assists than any other Red Wings player.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick