[04-May-2026 15:31:54 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Class 'WP_Widget' not found in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_news_feed_widget.php:3 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_news_feed_widget.php on line 3 [04-May-2026 15:31:55 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Class 'WP_Widget' not found in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_sidebar_menu_widget.php:3 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_sidebar_menu_widget.php on line 3 [04-May-2026 15:31:45 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_editorials.php:22 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_editorials.php on line 22 [04-May-2026 15:31:46 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_tabs.php:50 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_tabs.php on line 50 [04-May-2026 15:31:47 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_heading.php:15 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_heading.php on line 15 Lucas Raymond – McKeen's Hockey https://www.mckeenshockey.com The Essential Hockey Annual Thu, 09 Oct 2025 19:51:57 +0000 en-US hourly 1 MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – DETROIT RED WINGS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2025-26-nhl-yearbook-st-louis-blues-team-preview/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2025-26-nhl-yearbook-st-louis-blues-team-preview/#respond Thu, 09 Oct 2025 19:51:57 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=195641 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – DETROIT RED WINGS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

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DETROIT, MI - FEBRUARY 09: Detroit Red Wings Right Wing Lucas Raymond (23) in action during the game between Calgary Flames and Detroit Red Wings on February 9, 2023 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI (Photo by Allan Dranberg/Icon Sportswire)

For the ninth straight season, the Detroit Red Wings came up short of making the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Their 86 points put them five points out of the wild card a year after they lost the tiebreaker to the Washington Capitals for the final wild card spot. They’ve been close to getting back, but close isn’t good enough and a midseason slump last year cost Derek Lalonde his job as head coach and ushered in Todd McLellan who helped turn things around for a spell. While Detroit was painfully average at five-on-five, they again had one of the top power plays in the league. They had the fourth best team at the man advantage scoring 27 percent of the time. However, they had the league’s worst penalty kill at 70.1 percent. What McLellan can do with a full offseason and training camp will be curious to see because the team performed much better under him in the second half of the year, but as we’ve seen in his last few stops around the league recently, his demanding nature can wear teams down.

What’s Changed?

Goaltending has been a problem in Detroit for the past few years, and they made sure to address it this summer by adding John Gibson from the Anaheim Ducks. The longtime Ducks No. 1 will look to be Detroit’s saviour in net and, when healthy, he’s proven to be a top-flight netminder. He ceded the No. 1 job in Anaheim last year to Lukas Dostal, but in 29 games he went 11-11-2 with a .912 save percentage. In his career he’s 204-217-63 with a .910 save percentage and 24 shutouts. The Red Wings haven’t had a goalie this accomplished since Jimmy Howard was their No. 1. In free agency, they added veteran depth with James van Riemsdyk up front and Travis Hamonic on defence for one year each. Mason Appleton signed for two years, $5.8 million. Vladimir Tarasenko was sent to Minnesota for future considerations after he struggled and wasn’t happy in Detroit last season.

What Would Success Look Like?

If the Red Wings can mimic what division rivals Ottawa and Montreal did last year and took a rocket ride on the backs of their young stars to make the playoffs, that would have everyone in Detroit doing cartwheels. Led by Dylan Larkin and with emerging stars like Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, it feels like the Red Wings are right there to be a playoff team. Having Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane helping Detroit’s power play fill the net is huge, and the addition of Gibson ideally quiets everything else down in goal. Detroit’s defence stands out as a weak point, however, as Seider must be and do everything for them. So far, he’s been able to shoulder that load and will need to keep it up for them to crack through to the playoffs.

What Could Go Wrong?

Slumps crushed non-playoff teams in the Eastern Conference last year (just ask Buffalo and Columbus) and any prolonged period of losing means giving up points and ground to the competition. Detroit has a lot of young parts but is a very veteran group. That age can come with the hazards of injuries and dips in performance. For as much as Gibson is a savior for them in goal, his injury history is something that looms over what they can do. Having Cam Talbot as an experienced backup is a huge bonus, but when he was given a heavier workload last season, injuries and performance got in the way. General Manager Steve Yzerman needs all of his moves to come up as hits or else.

Top Breakout Candidate

If there’s a player to keep an eye out for it in Detroit, forward Marco Kasper is the one. The Red Wings’ first-round pick from 2022 had an outstanding rookie season with 19 goals and 18 assists in 77 games. He may not have been expected to carry that kind of load for them when camp opened last year, but his play forced the issue. Now Kasper is slated to be the No. 2 center behind Dylan Larkin and that added depth up the middle suddenly has Detroit feeling very good about the position and for good reason. Kasper’s skill set is outstanding and his creativity with the puck makes him dangerous in the offensive zone.

FORWARDS

Lucas Raymond

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 28 56 84 1.02

After a stereotypically down sophomore season, Lucas Raymond rebounded from it in a massive way the past two seasons and took things to an even higher-level last year. Raymond led the Red Wings in scoring with 80 points including 27 goals. His playmaking was outstanding both at even strength and on the power play. He led the team with 53 assists including 29 with the man advantage. Although Raymond had 31 goals two seasons ago, it’s helping his teammates score goals where he’s able to do even more damage. Whether it means he’s feeding Dylan Larkin or finding Alex DeBrincat or Patrick Kane to score, that he can finish plays himself as well adds to the danger he provides. It's been impressive to see Raymond’s game take steps forward since his tough second season in 2022-2023. Given some of the struggles the Red Wings had in general, it would’ve been easy enough for a young player to continue to struggle with them. Instead, we’ve seen Raymond develop a bit of an edge to his game and not allow others to push him around. That added confidence has allowed his game to further flourish and grow alongside his veteran teammates.

Dylan Larkin

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 32 44 76 0.93

It’s a shame the Detroit Red Wings haven’t made the playoffs since 2016 because watching Dylan Larkin play and perform with the kind of consistency he does only makes us wonder how good he’d be with the stakes being higher. We got a taste of that in the Four Nations Face-Off when he played for the United States, but with the heart and soul he puts into his play for Detroit, it’s tough to see his efforts not extend to the postseason. The Red Wings captain had 30 goals for the fourth straight season and finished with 70 points, tied for second with Alex DeBrincat behind Lucas Raymond for the team lead. Incredibly, the 29-year-old center is headed into his 11th season with Detroit and with the kind of consistent production he’s provided them over the years, having him help bring Raymond into stardom on his wing does wonders for their success. Whether he has DeBrincat or Patrick Kane on the right side works well for them to provide a top line that can do damage against every team in the league. Larkin was a big-time player on the power play as he tied with DeBrincat for the team lead with 13 power play goals. Oddly enough, he was fourth in power play points behind his linemates on the first unit Raymond, Kane, and DeBrincat and just ahead of Moritz Seider. He’s doing his part to lead them, but management just needs to give them more depth to get them back to the playoffs.

Alex DeBrincat

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 40 37 77 0.94

In the two seasons since being acquired from Ottawa, Alex DeBrincat has made the Red Wings’ investment in him look like a very smart one. DeBrincat led the Red Wings in goals with 39 last season and came within two of tying his career-high of 41, something he did twice while with the Chicago Blackhawks. He had 70 points and finished tied for second on Detroit in scoring with Dylan Larkin behind sometimes linemate Lucas Raymond. Where DeBrincat proved to be dangerous was part of the Red Wings’ wicked power play attack in which he tied with Dylan Larkin with 13 goals. Whether it’s acting as a sniper or a goal mouth threat, success was easy enough to be found for the diminutive offensive dynamo. Over his two seasons with Detroit. DeBrincat has 66 goals and 137 points. Bringing him back home to Michigan has been a great move for GM Steve Yzerman and the way he fits in with their top attackers has made it a home run move. It’s difficult to ask for more from DeBrincat in the years to come, especially after how well he performed last season, but Detroit does need a little extra from everyone. That said, if he repeats what he did last season it sets the Red Wings up well by having a virtual 40-goal scorer built right in.

Patrick Kane

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
70 20 35 55 0.79

It might be the norm for fans online to highlight the defensive shortcomings in Patrick Kane’s game but looking past that to what he’s still accomplishing offensively as he turns 36 years old is reason enough to be appreciative of his play. Kane had 59 points for Detroit last season, 29 of which came on the power play. His 59 points and 21 goals were fourth most on the Red Wings last season and he was part of a top power play unit there that was fourth best in the NHL. Kane’s 12 power play goals put him one behind both Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat who each had 13. In two seasons with Detroit, Kane’s scored 41 goals in 122 games and put up 106 points. For Kane in his prime, those were single-season-type numbers, but now, after having hip surgery two years ago and being north of 35, he’s been a solid performer, especially on the power play. He’ll begin this season just eight goals shy of 500 for his career, a mark only 48 players in league history have accomplished. With Toronto’s John Tavares two goals ahead of him, it’ll be a race between them to see who can hit the mark first. In the long run, Kane hopes to get Detroit back to the postseason for the first time since 2016. Kane himself has only been to the playoffs twice in the past eight seasons.

Marco Kasper

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
81 28 30 58 0.72

When the Red Wings drafted Marco Kasper eighth overall in 2022, their excitement in doing so had to be immense. He came with a sky-high skill set, tremendous offensive instincts and outstanding skating ability. Upon his arrival into the NHL full-time last season, it became apparent as the season rolled on that they landed a player that could be a fixture there for some time. Kasper put up 19 goals and 18 assists (37 points) in 77 games last season and ascended the lineup after he was eased into action early in the season. When he eventually found his way into the top half of the forward group, it proved to be a fortuitous decision because of the creativity he injected into any line he played with. Even with his somewhat tempered usage, he had the opportunity to work on lines with all of the Red Wings’ top players. Call it on-the-job learning if you’d like, but what it did was help the team figure out what types of players he blended best. As he heads into his sophomore season, the hope is he can avoid the struggles usually associated with that. Whoever Kasper lines up with this season, he’ll have the benefit of having a strong first season to show him the way and, ideally, prior experience playing alongside his wingers to hit the ground running.

Jonatan Berggren

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
77 15 17 32 0.42

Hopes have been high in Detroit for Jonatan Berggren. When they selected him in the second round of the 2018 draft, they knew they were getting a player out of Sweden who could fill the net there. While he’s been able to do the same whenever he’s been in the AHL, doing so at the NHL level has been a bit more difficult. Last season with Detroit, Berggren had 12 goals and 12 assists in 75 games. What stood out more about Berggren’s run last season was his role, as he averaged just under 13 minutes of ice time per game. Playing on the third or fourth line doesn’t exactly lend itself to producing big numbers or being asked to play a role in which offense will be stressed. That wasn’t quite the case last season as he played a bit less than half of his five-on-five minutes with Vladimir Tarasenko and J.T. Compher. While Compher matches up well defensively, Tarasenko is much more capable offensively. Berggren possesses a lot of skill and ability and after he put up 15 goals in his rookie season in 2022-2023, the thought was he was poised to breakout as their next big offensive weapon. But his second season did not go well, and he spent most of that year scoring in the AHL. If he’s going to be a bigger part of this team, he’ll need to fight his way into a top six or nine role to do so or become a stronger defensive forward and the time to do it is right now.

Andrew Copp

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
75 9 15 24 0.32

No one’s seen their role change more the past few seasons in Detroit than Andrew Copp. When the Red Wings signed him as a free agent in 2022 after he had a 21-goal, 53-point season split between the Winnipeg Jets and New York Rangers, the idea was he’d slot in as their defensive-minded but offensively capable number two center, and they’d roll from there. When Copp posted nine goals and 33 assists in his first season with Detroit, however, it was clear their confidence things would work out was shaken because J.T. Compher was signed after that season and took over that role. Since then, he’s been steady in a slightly lesser position down in the lineup, although a pectoral injury ended his season in late February and he was held to 56 games. With Marco Kasper’s rise and hopeful improvement as well as Compher’s established role on the team, the likelihood of Copp anchoring the fourth line would seem high. Detroit is deeper on the wings with the additions of James van Riemsdyk and Mason Appleton and if Copp is holding down a line lower in the lineup that should benefit them well in matchups because he should ideally be better than other teams’ third- or fourth-line centers.

J.T. Compher

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
79 13 19 32 0.41

Two years ago, when Detroit signed J.T. Compher to a five-year, $25.5 million deal, the idea for him was to lock-in as their number two center behind Dylan Larkin. Compher could score and defend well enough to provide a bit of a change-up in how to handle matchups and when it came to blending lines. After all, he just came off a career-high 52-point season. He followed it up with 48 points in his first season with the Red Wings and it seemed like things would work out appropriately. Last season, however, Compher’s stats fell more in line with what we’ve seen from him before in Colorado. He had 11 goals and finished with 32 points and averaged 16:41 time on-ice per game. Even though his ice time was down, he still played a vital all-around role for Detroit and was part of their power play and penalty kill units. For most of the season, Compher centered a line with Vladimir Tarasenko and Jonatan Berggren but also worked a fair bit with Patrick Kane on the wing as well. It’s a compliment to him that he plays up in the lineup with offensively talented guys like Tarasenko and Kane but also can hold his own on the penalty kill as well. That said, if he’s lining up with Kane you’d like to see better offensive numbers. Now with young rising star Marco Kasper becoming more of an offensive threat, there’s a possibility we see Compher playing a role that leans more towards defending than attacking under coach Todd McLellan.

James van Riemsdyk

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
68 15 22 37 0.54

The Red Wings needed veteran help down in the lineup and landed 36-year-old James van Riemsdyk to do just that. As a big player with good hands and positioning around the net, he’s able cause issues around the net cleaning up loose pucks and taking away goaltenders’ eyes. Last season with Columbus, van Riemsdyk had 16 goals and 20 assists (36 points) and helped balance out the latter part of the Blue Jackets lineup. Throughout his career, he’s been known for his ability to score around the goal and in the slot when given quality looks. With how good he is handling the puck down low, he provides a ton of value in his own zone and very well may play on the Red Wings’ second power play unit. Van Riemsdyk teamed up often with younger players like Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli in Columbus and did so in Boston the year before with Trent Frederic and Morgan Geekie to give them a veteran to lean on and learn from. That kind of role might be recreated with Detroit with guys like Marco Kasper and Jonatan Berggren. Overall, the past five or six years have seen van Riemsdyk become a steady 35-to-40 point player with anywhere from 15-to-20 goals a year. The Red Wings hope that trend continues, and he can help guide their younger players.

DEFENCE

Moritz Seider

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 12 44 56 0.68

Defensemen are traditionally the workhorses of every NHL team, but in Moritz Seider’s case he was that and then some. Seider was Detroit’s No. 1 defenseman in every way last season. He played the most minutes, had the most goals, assists and points, and was their exclusive power play quarterback. Red Wings defensemen had 26 points on the power play and Seider was responsible for 24 of them. He had four out of five goals from blue liners with the man advantage as well. Simply put, he was brilliant. Because of his heavy all-around usage, Seider’s advanced stats were basically break-even when it came to shot attempts and scoring chances but considering what he generated for Detroit in all situations, it’s hard to argue with his value to them. What would do the Red Wings a lot of good is to have someone, anyone, to do some of the things that Seider can do reasonably well. As a No. 1 defenseman he’s going to shoulder most of the responsibilities to begin with, but a lot is demanded of him the way things are. Fortunately, he’s been able to handle it with aplomb. Seider played more than half of his minutes at five-on-five with defensive defenseman Ben Chiarot which allowed Seider to have more freedom to join the attack in the offensive zone, but overall, that pairing struggled preventing attempts. Most of the rest of his ice time was spent with Simon Edvinsson and that pairing saw shot numbers improve greatly. If that pairing is reunited it could be beneficial to both.

Simon Edvinsson

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
81 8 28 36 0.44

Last season was Simon Edvinsson’s first full one in the NHL and he was able to make enough of an impression to earn a larger role moving ahead into this season. Edvinsson had seven goals and 24 assists in 78 games with the Red Wings and averaged 21:07 time on-ice. The sizable uptick in his playing time is due in part to being paired with No. 1 defender Moritz Seider for roughly half of his minutes played at five-on-five. The other half of his playing time was spent with rookie Albert Johansson where those two played more or less as Detroit’s number two pairing. Edvinsson, the sixth overall pick in the 2021 draft, stands at 6-foot-6, 210 pounds and while he casts an imposing figure, his game is better built around his ability to move the puck, and he has surprising elusiveness while carrying it. A defender his size makes many believe he’ll throw his body around to make plays, but that’s not exactly the case. While he gets in the way of shots in the defensive zone, playing physically is not his main objective. The points he generated last season show that he could be effective in being part of a second wave of attack from the blue line and give Seider proper backup in handling that role.

Erik Gustafsson

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
68 1 17 18 0.26

Entering his second season with the Red Wings, Erik Gustafsson looks to continue in his role supplying puck support in helping the team escape their own end and generating more of an attack up the ice. Last season, Gustafsson posted two goals and 16 assists in 60 games while averaging 16:19 in ice time. That kind of usage put him solidly in a third pairing role and he played more than 80 percent of his five-on-five ice time with Justin Holl. A broken foot ended his season in late March. Known always more for being an offensive defenseman, Gustafsson handled that role well and was a positive influence in generating more shot attempts than allowed while he was on the ice and the Red Wings scoring chance quality was greater than they gave up when he was out there as well. In his kind of position on the third pairing, that’s all you can ask for along with limiting goals allowed. Unfortunately, Gustafsson’s minus-19 plus-minus rating was the lowest on the team. He’ll be expected to play a similar role again this season and whether he reunites with Holl or teams up with summer signee Jacob Bernard-Docker, the third pair would seem to be squared away.

Ben Chiarot

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
78 4 12 16 0.21

There may be no more fascinating player in Detroit than Ben Chiarot and it’s for a host of reasons. Chiarot is a straightforward defensive defenseman. He plays physical all over the ice, ties up pucks in the corners, battles in front of the net and blocks shots. Relying on him for big offense isn’t something that will work out, but if there’s a guy you need to do the dirty work in the defensive end of the ice, that’s what he’ll do. Last season, Chiarot had four goals and nine assists in 81 games. The numbers that matter more for him, however, were the 142 blocked shots and 127 hits delivered while averaging 21:14 in ice time. He spent most of last season partnered with Moritz Seider on the Red Wings’ top pairing with more than 800 minutes together at five-on-five. When he wasn’t with Seider he worked with Jeff Petry and that duo struggled to prevent shot attempts and scoring chances greatly. Whether Chiarot returns next to Seider or not could be a big factor in how well (or not) the Red Wings can have more success. Chiarot is entering the final year of his contract in Detroit and while he’s been a good soldier throughout his time there, the reliance they’ve had on him to play big minutes and key situations was controversial in its own way. That said, Detroit has had many needs as they’ve attempted to emerge from their rebuild and return to the postseason.

GOAL

John Gibson

Predicted Stats
GP W L OT SO SV% GAA
49 22 19 5 3 .905 2.68

Maybe John Gibson isn't a star starter capable of 60-70 games a season any longer, but the 31-year-old former Anaheim backstop proved last season - when his heir apparent Lukas Dostal embraced the bulk of the starts for the year - that he's still capable of putting together some great performances when he's not being asked to do too much too often. That makes him a potentially great fit for the still-retooling Detroit Red Wings, who were just a few wins shy of being a Wild Card last year. He'll join a returning Cam Talbot, who made it clear when he joined Detroit that he was looking for the opportunity to stay in one place for a bit - and with a perfectly acceptable year under his belt, he should make a strong pairing with Gibson to challenge in a tumultuous Atlantic.

Gibson obviously isn't a long-term answer for the Red Wings, but he's a great asset for the next few years - particularly given that his preferred style of play, which emphasizes a more conservative approach that forces shooters to show their hand before he makes a move, shares a number of traits with prospect Sebastian Cossa's own brand of goaltending. This provides a stylistic mentor for Cossa, a tandem partner for Talbot, and some security for Gibson as he finishes out his contract and considers his next move.

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NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – San Jose rebuild on track – Favourable schedules and players to target https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-dadoun-fantasy-week-san-jose-rebuild-track-favourable-schedules-players-target/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-dadoun-fantasy-week-san-jose-rebuild-track-favourable-schedules-players-target/#respond Sat, 22 Mar 2025 12:54:26 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=192584 Read More... from NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – San Jose rebuild on track – Favourable schedules and players to target

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MONTREAL, QC - JANUARY 11: San Jose Sharks left wing William Eklund (72) (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

There are a number of teams that have effectively lost all hope of making the playoffs, but at the time of writing, only one team has been mathematically eliminated from postseason contention: The San Jose Sharks.

It’s the sixth straight year without a playoff berth for San Jose, which is by far the largest stretch of failure in the franchise’s history -- from the inaugural season in 1991-92 through 2018-19, the Sharks had missed the playoffs just six times in total -- and yet there’s a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.

Macklin Celebrini has lived up to the hype in his rookie campaign with 21 goals and 50 points through 57 appearances, and the 22-year-old William Eklund is shaping up to be another strong member of the Sharks’ future with 15 goals and 50 points in 64 outings. They’re also seeing some preliminary success from 19-year-old Will Smith, who has provided 13 goals and 35 points in 61 appearances. We should also soon see Cameron Lund make his NHL debut after signing an entry-level contract with the Sharks on Friday. Perhaps the Sharks will try pairing Lund up with Eklund after the 20-year-old Lund supplied 18 goals and 40 points in 37 outings with Northeastern University this year.

In the long run, that young core of forwards might be backed up by 22-year-old netminder Yaroslav Askarov, who has struggled with the rebuilding Sharks (3.10 GAA, .896 save percentage in 13 outings), but has looked solid at the AHL level this campaign (2.52 GAA, .922 save percentage in 19 games).

If some of their other top prospects like Quentin Musty and Sam Dickinson work out, and the Sharks get value out of their four picks in the top two rounds of the 2025 and 2026 drafts, then San Jose could start moving in an upward trajectory quickly.

The only issue is that they have a lot of ground to gain. There’s a good chance the Sharks will finish with 60 or lower points for a third straight campaign. On the one hand, it’s a stretch that’s allowed them to put their full force into rebuilding, but there’s always the danger of falling into the Buffalo Sabres trap, where success always seems to be just around the corner.

An eventful summer might be the key for the Sharks, especially because the Sharks are currently swimming in cap space. They do need to be mindful of the big raises that Eklund, Celebrini and Smith will be due if all goes as hoped, but Celebrini and Smith won’t test the market for the first time until the summer of 2027, while Eklund will remain on his entry-level contract for the 2025-26 campaign, so there is a window here for the Sharks to spend. Their cap flexibility is also made a little easier by the fact that Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s $7 million contract comes off the books in the summer of 2026 and Couture’s $8 million cap hit ends after 2026-27, which will help offset some of those raises.

That will allow them to be aggressive on the UFA market, and it also opens the door for San Jose to potentially leverage some of its picks for veteran players. So, while the Sharks have some largely meaningless games ahead of them, this might end up being the summer of GM Mike Grier.

Buffalo Sabres (Tue vs OTT, Thu vs PIT, Sat @ PHI, Sun @ WAS)

It seems cruel to cite the Sabres as a cautionary tale whenever teams like the Sharks are in the midst of a rebuild, but that’s what they are. With a 27-34-6 record through Thursday’s action, Buffalo sits at the bottom of the Eastern Conference and is on course to miss the playoffs for a 14th straight season. That’s the longest postseason drought in the history of the league.

The Sabres will at least attempt to finish the season on a somewhat positive note. They’ll host Ottawa and Pittsburgh on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before heading on the road to visit Philadelphia on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.

Buffalo’s single biggest issue this campaign has been an inability to keep the puck out of the net. The Sabres rank 29th in goals allowed per game with 3.52. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who managed a solid 2.57 GAA and a .910 save percentage in 54 appearances in 2023-24, hasn’t looked nearly as impressive this campaign, going 23-21-4 with a 3.16 GAA and an .888 save percentage.

It's tempting to say that the team in front of him has been the source of Luukkonen’s woes, and there’s certainly some backing for that assumption. The Sabres rank 29th in xGA/60 at 3.35, per Moneypuck, which implies that the defense has been making life miserable for the goaltenders. However, Luukkonen can’t completely escape blame. He also has a minus-4.6 goals saved above expected, which suggests that he’s been putting forth below average performances, and that’s compounded Buffalo’s already significant defensive issues. That’s also in contrast to 2023-24 when Luukkonen finished with a plus-9.4 goals saved above expected.

Buffalo has already made a long-term commitment to Luukkonen, albeit with a $4.75 million cap hit through 2028-29, which is on the low end for a veteran starter and is expected to get even more reasonable as the cap goes up. If he ends up needing to slide into a backup role, that contract will look like an overpay, but not to the point where it’s an anchor on Buffalo’s cap situation.

The ideal would be if Devon Levi lives up to the promise he showed in the NCAA, but so far the 23-year-old has left plenty to be desired in the NHL, posting a 3.29 GAA and an .894 save percentage through 39 appearances. Goaltenders tend to take longer to develop than any other NHL position, so it would be premature to write him off, but Buffalo assuming that a Luukkonen-Levi duo will eventually lead the franchise to the playoffs might be dangerous -- the potential is there, but it’s far from a sure thing.

That’s a long-term concern for Buffalo. In the short run, the Sabres can at least enjoy Ryan McLeod’s hot streak. He’s recorded a point in five straight games and has been held off the scoresheet just once over his last seven appearances, giving him two goals and seven points in that span. He’s set career highs in goals (16) and points (38) in his first campaign with Buffalo after being acquired from Edmonton, and the 25-year-old should be a solid presence for years to come while primarily centering the third line under ideal circumstances.

Detroit Red Wings (Mon @ UTA, Tue @ COL, Thu vs OTT, Sat vs BOS)

Detroit has won just two of its past 10 games, putting the Red Wings playoff hopes in serious jeopardy. They’ll need to do well next week to avoid slipping out of the postseason picture. The Red Wings will start on the road, facing Utah on Monday and Colorado on Tuesday. Detroit will then return home to host the Senators on Thursday and the Bruins on Saturday.

Buffalo’s postseason drought is the one that get the most attention, but Detroit hasn’t been to the postseason since 2016, so there are significant stakes to the Red Wings’ playoff run, especially because they’re not exactly a rebuilding squad anymore. Lucas Raymond (23 goals, 69 points) is still just 22 years old, while Dylan Larkin (28, 60) and Alex DeBrincat (31, 58) are in their late 20s, so Detroit’s core forwards aren’t old, but they’re not emerging prospects either. Two of Detroit’s top four defensemen (Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson) are under 25, but they are supplemented by aging veterans (Ben Chiarot, Jeff Petry).

Detroit does still have players that will get better with time. I’m very interested to see what the future holds for 20-year-old rookie Marco Kasper, who has 13 goals, 27 points, 30 PIM and 123 hits in 63 appearances this campaign, but Detroit is beyond the point where it can just shrug and say that short-term losing is a byproduct of the process.

Patrick Kane should be in no mood to be patient at the age of 36. He exploded with a five-point effort March 12 to lead Detroit past Buffalo. Kane also had a three-point showing March 1 versus Columbus, but he’s been inconsistent recently, so don’t look at his 11 points (three goals) in nine games this month and assume he’s red hot. The truth is more nuanced. Unfortunately, Detroit has lacked a steady hand on offense recently, which is a reflection of the team’s recent struggles overall.

Petr Mrazek, who was acquired from Chicago, has been given the opportunity to take over as Detroit’s starter. He’s got the nod in each of Detroit’s past four games, but the results have been mixed. He did post an 18-save shutout over Vegas on Sunday, but he also allowed at least three goals in each of the other three starts. Overall, he has a 2-2-0 record, 2.51 GAA and .901 save percentage in four appearances since joining Detroit. Still, Cam Talbot (2.96 GAA, .900 save percentage) and Alex Lyon (2.77 GAA, .900 save percentage) haven’t given Detroit much to be happy about this campaign, so Mrazek might continue to act as the Red Wings’ primary choice going forward.

Los Angeles Kings (Tue vs NYR, Thu @ COL, Sat vs TOR, Sun vs SJS)

The Kings sit third in the Pacific Division with a 37-21-9 record, but they still have a shot at catching Edmonton (40-24-5) and maybe even Vegas (40-20-8). The Kings will need a solid week to keep those prospects healthy. They’ll start by hosting the Rangers on Tuesday before playing in Colorado on Thursday. Afterward, the Kings will return home to face the Maple Leafs on Saturday and the Sharks on Sunday.

The Kings managed just four goals across eight games from March 13-20, so they don’t have any hot forwards. Kevin Fiala is about as close as you can find with a goal and three points over that four-game stretch, but he’s also been held off the scoresheet in seven of his past 12 contests, so his recent play is nothing to get excited over.

Meanwhile, Phillip Danault has just a goal and four points across his past 13. This is shaping up to be a disappointing campaign for him overall. He has just six goals in 66 games with a shooting percentage of 5.5, which is on course to be his lowest ever, excluding the two games he played in 2014-15. He also has no power-play points after recording 20 in 2022-23 and nine in 2023-24. On the one hand, he’s averaging 1:20 with the man advantage, the lowest of his four seasons with LA, which limits his chances, but Danault also hasn’t given the Kings much reason to use him more on the power play, so it’s a bit of a chicken and the egg issue. Either way, this campaign is looking like it’ll go down as a wash for Danault, and he certainly has been part of the issue for the Kings’ recent offensive drought, recording no points over the past four games.

This would be a bad stretch for the Kings, except Darcy Kuemper stopped 81 of 84 shots (.964 save percentage) while starting in those four games, and LA won three of those outings as a result. The 34-year-old goaltender is now 23-9-7 with a 2.13 GAA and a .918 save percentage in 40 appearances. In terms of GAA, this could be the best campaign of his career, excluding 2012-13 when he appeared in just six games. That’s quite a turnaround from 2023-24 (3.31 GAA, .890 save percentage), and it has to be said that Kuemper has a plus-15 goals saved above expected, which ranks 13th in the league, so this isn’t exclusively a case of him benefiting from strong defensively play in front of him -- though, the Kings do have a league-best 2.61 xGA/60, so the defense has been doing its part too.

Minnesota Wild (Mon @ DAL, Tue vs VGK, Thu vs WAS, Sat vs NJD)

Minnesota has a healthy edge in the battle for a wild-card spot, especially after winning its past two games. The Wild will look to build on their recent momentum when they play in Dallas on Monday. Minnesota will also host Vegas, Washington and New Jersey on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, respectively.

Although Minnesota is likely to make the playoffs, the extended absence of Kirill Kaprizov (lower body) has been felt. He’s appeared in just three games dating back to Dec. 27, and Minnesota is a mediocre 18-15-1 over that span while averaging just 2.50 goals per game. By contrast, the Wild went 21-10-4 while averaging 2.94 goals per game over their first 35 contests, which is a stretch when Kaprizov provided 23 goals and 50 points in 34 appearances (missing one game).

To make matters worse, Joel Eriksson Ek hasn’t played since Feb. 22 due to a lower-body injury. Coach John Hynes said Monday that Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek were progressing off ice, per Dylan Loucks of The Hockey News, which is mixed news. Any progress is good progress, but if they’re not skating yet, then they’re probably not close to returning. With so little time left in the campaign, I have to wonder if Minnesota is now simply looking ahead to the playoffs when it comes to Kaprizov. Maybe he’ll get into a few games toward the end of the regular season just to shake off the rust, but that might be all we can hope for.

At least Ryan Hartman is back from his eight-game suspension. He’s recorded three goals and six points in eight appearances since returning from his punishment. He also averaged 16:31 of ice time in that span, up from 15:00, as the Wild deal with injuries.

Minnesota also attempted to get help by acquiring Gustav Nyquist from Nashville on March 1, but that hasn’t moved the needle. Nyquist has registered just two assists in nine outings with Minnesota despite averaging 16:02 since the trade. He might see his role reduced once Eriksson Ek and Kaprizov are ready to return, especially if Nyquist doesn’t start heating up.

To wrap up on a somber note, we’re likely watching the final games of Marc-Andre Fleury. He hasn’t played much recently -- his last start was March 9 -- but the Wild do have a back-to-back coming Monday and Tuesday, so he’ll likely make his 885th career start and 1,048th appearance on one of those two nights. Fleury has solid backup at the age of 40, posting a 12-8-1 record, 2.73 GAA and .904 save percentage in 22 outings this campaign.

New Jersey Devils (Mon vs VAN, Wed @ CHI, Thu @ WPG, Sat @ MIN)

The Devils have been treading water lately, winning four of their past nine games. At this point, they’re unlikely to catch Carolina for the second seed in the Metropolitan Division, but the Devils are still likely to secure the third seed. In the meantime, they’ll start next week at home against Vancouver. The Devils will then hit the road, playing in Chicago on Wednesday, Winnipeg on Friday and Minnesota on Saturday.

Like Minnesota, New Jersey is dealing with some major injuries. Dougie Hamilton (lower body) hasn’t played since March 4 (he logged just 5:15 before exiting that March 4th game), and Jack Hughes (shoulder) was last in the lineup March 2.

New Jersey has gone 4-4-0 without Hamilton and Hughes, including the contest Hamilton was only briefly a part of in contrast to the Devils’ 33-23-6 record across their first 62 games. It’d be natural to assume their middling play lately has been as a result of a drop in offense, similar to what Minnesota has experienced, but the Devils have managed 2.88 goals per game over their last eight games, which isn’t much of a decline from their 2.98 before Hughes’ injury.

Instead, the problem has been at their own end. Jacob Markstrom has a 4.67 GAA and an .817 save percentage across his past five appearances. That leaky play has taken some of the shine out of the heroics from Jesper Bratt (three goals, 10 points in his past five games) and Luke Hughes (one goal, seven points in his past eight appearances).

Jake Allen has looked good, though, winning his past three starts while saving 99 of 103 shots (.961 save percentage). That contrast between New Jersey’s two goaltenders has resulted in Markstrom shifting from being the clear starter to serving in a rotation. I don’t expect that arrangement to persist for the remainder of the campaign, but it’ll probably last until Markstrom finds his footing again.

The Devils certainly have to hope Markstrom comes out of this cold patch sooner rather than later. While there is light at the end of the tunnel for Minnesota on the injury front -- albeit a distance light -- Jack Hughes isn’t expected back until training camp, and Hamilton probably won’t return until the second round at the earliest, provided the Devils make it that far. What they have now is all they can count on. Fortunately for New Jersey, Bratt, Nico Hischier and Timo Meier is still a solid forward core, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that trio do well down the stretch, and Luke Hughes is a great alternative to Hamilton on the top power-play unit, which should result in Luke having a strong finish offensively.

New York Islanders (Mon vs CBJ, Wed vs VAN, Sat @ TBL, Sun @ CAR)

The Islanders have won their past three games, pushing them within striking distance of a wild-card spot. New York needs to stay hot next week to close the gap. They’ll start with a home game against Columbus, which is another team in the hunt for an Eastern Conference wild-card position. The Blue Jackets will also play at home against Vancouver on Wednesday before traveling to Tampa Bay on Saturday and Carolina on Sunday.

New York squeaking into the playoffs would be particularly impressive after they traded Brock Nelson to Colorado on March 6 in a where the key pieces back were prospect Calum Ritchie and a first-round pick. It’s not like the Islanders had offense to spare…or so you’d assume, but they’ve been getting help from unexpected sources lately.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau has a goal and six points while Simon Holmstrom has three goals and five points across the Islanders’ seven games since the trade. Both players are usually more complementary pieces when it comes to offense, but they do get on these kinds of hot streaks, making them nice situational pickups during times such as this.

Defensemen Noah Dobson and Anthony DeAngelo have also been major contributors during the same stretch, recording seven and six points, respectively. It’s been interesting that Dobson’s return from injury Feb. 27 hasn’t marginalized DeAngelo’s contributions. Rather than shift DeAngelo to the second power-play unit to make room for Dobson, the Islanders seem comfortable having two defensemen on their top group with the man advantage. DeAngelo has also continued to be used at even strength, averaging 22:18 of ice time in all situations since the return of Dobson.

DeAngelo’s always been a lightning rod for controversy, but it seems he’s found a good spot with the Islanders, and he should continue to be a meaningful contributor for the remainder of the campaign.

Ottawa Senators (Tue @ BUF, Thu @ DET, Sat vs CBJ, Sun @ PIT) 

The Senators put themselves in a good spot by winning six straight from March 5-15, but they’ve hit a rough patch with back-to-back losses. The Senators still hold the first wild-card spot, but they can’t afford to relax. They have an opportunity to collect some key points next week against teams not currently in a playoff position. Ottawa will play in Buffalo on Tuesday, Detroit on Thursday and Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Senators will also host the Blue Jackets on Saturday.

Dylan Cozens has worked out pretty nicely in Ottawa since being acquired from Buffalo on March 7. He has three goals and six points in seven appearances with the Senators despite seeing his average playing time drop from 17:13 before the trade to 15:23 since joining the Ottawa. Cozens seems to be settling into a second-line center role with Ottawa, which isn’t surprising. He should get most of his minutes alongside Drake Batherson and David Perron for the remainder of the campaign, though Cozens is also getting work on the top power-play unit and has already provided two goals with the man advantage for Ottawa.

Batherson has been a good player to skate alongside recently. He enjoyed a four-game scoring streak from March 11-18 in which he supplied three goals and six points, but that run was snapped Thursday. The 26-year-old is up to 19 goals and 55 points in 68 outings overall, making it very likely that he’ll reach the 20-goal and 60-point marks for the third straight campaign. In fact, he still has a solid chance of besting his career high of 66 points, which he set last year.

Perron also has been solid recently with four goals and seven points in his past 10 appearances. The 36-year-old missed significant chunks of the campaign, so it’s not too surprising that he was limited to a goal and four points in 11 outings from Jan. 11 (when he returned from a 27-game absence due to back problem) through Feb. 26. Now that the veteran has been able to string together a significant number of games for the first time all season, we’re seeing steady production out of him, and there’s a good chance that’ll continue for the rest of the season, barring another exit from the lineup.

Ottawa’s top line, headlined by Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle, will be the main drivers of the Senators’ offense, but don’t underestimate that second unit of Perron, Cozens and Batherson.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Tue vs PHI, Thu @ SJS, Sat @ NYR, Sun @ LAK)

Toronto has won its past three games, putting behind a rough stretch in which the Maple Leafs won just one of six contests. The Maple Leafs are competing with Florida for the Atlantic Division title. Toronto will look for an edge in that battle next week, beginning with a home game against the Flyers on Tuesday. Toronto will then go on the road, playing in San Jose on Thursday, Los Angeles on Saturday and Anaheim on Sunday.

Even after a run of four goals from March 15-19, Auston Matthews is still on course for career lows with his goal total of 27 and his shooting percentage of 12.4. He’s been limited to 54 games this campaign, and it seems probable he’s playing through something even now, but even Matthews at less than 100 percent is still a high-end option. It helps that he’s pivoted to setting up his teammates a little more to make up for the reduced goal scoring -- he has 34 assists, so in terms of points per 60 minutes, his 3.3 this year is a touch low by his standards, but still well within the range of what’d you’d expect from him.

There’s a good chance he’ll come back strong next season with another 40-plus campaign, and he might even hit 60 for the third time in his career in 2025-26. However, the 27-year-old has run into more injuries problems than one would like over the first half of his career, which makes projecting him somewhat difficult.

Mitch Marner has been the steadier hand in Toronto in terms of season-by-season production. This will be his fourth straight campaign with over 20 goals and 80 points. One thing he’s never managed is reaching the 100-point mark, though he came close in 2021-22 (97) and 2022-23 (99). He might be able to just barely hit it this season after supplying 21 goals and 83 points through 68 appearances.

Marner needs to get hot again to hit the century mark, but right now, he’s not the hottest member of the Leafs. Neither is Matthews, for that matter. That distinction belongs to William Nylander, who has five goals and 15 points in his last 11 appearances. That brings him up to 38 markers and 73 points in 69 outings overall.

Nylander also reached the 600-point career milestone Thursday when he assisted on a goal by John Tavares. That was career point 1,098 for Tavares, and the 34-year-old center went on to collect two more points, making it a milestone night for him as well. Tavares has 29 goals and 60 points in 62 appearances in 2024-25, bringing him up to 213 goals and 479 points in 502 games. If you had told someone immediately after Tavares signed a seven-year, $77 million contract with Toronto that he would decline over the final couple of years, they would have likely believed you. However, while Tavares did show his age somewhat in 2023-24, he’s continuing to produce at a high level even in the final campaign of that deal. It’ll be very interesting to see what kind of contract he commands over the summer, because he still seems to have good hockey left in him.

Toronto’s offense revolves around that core, and unfortunately no one outside of it steps up for more than brief periods. Matthew Knies is Toronto’s next best producer with 25 goals and 45 points, but he’s going through a mediocre stretch in which he’s supplied a goal and four points over his past eight games. Max Domi and Bobby McMann have been similarly meh lately, each contributing two goals and four points over the same eight-game span. All three are worth monitoring as pickup options during hot streaks, but they can’t be counted on to put up strong numbers over a longer period.

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NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Boston Struggling, Colorado returns to health and much more https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-dadoun-fantasy-week-boston-struggling-colorado-returns-health/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-dadoun-fantasy-week-boston-struggling-colorado-returns-health/#respond Sat, 16 Nov 2024 15:47:10 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=190699 Read More... from NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Boston Struggling, Colorado returns to health and much more

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Boston Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman (1) (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

If you compare every team since the beginning of the salary cap era (2005-06), you’ll find that the Boston Bruins rank as the best defensively, allowing an average of just 2.55 goals per game. That’s not shocking when you consider that the Bruins have gone from Tim Thomas to Tuukka Rask to the duo of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman over that period.

Elite goaltending has simply become the norm in Boston, and it didn’t look like it was going to change. Sure, Ullmark was dealt to Ottawa for cap reasons, but the 25-year-old Swayman seemed ready to take his place as Boston’s clear No. 1, and yes, the negotiations got tense, resulting in him missing the preseason, but in the end, he signed an eight-year, $66 million contract, ending the saga with a resolution that both sides can be happy with. Except, noone has much reason to be happy with the Bruins right now.

Boston is a middling 8-8-2, a dramatic drop from its 47-20-15 finish in 2023-24, and Swayman has been part of the problem with his 5-6-2 record, 3.35 GAA and .888 save percentage in 13 starts. He leads the league in goals allowed (42), and his goals saved above expected is minus-4.6, per Moneypuck, which puts him in 65th place through Thursday’s action -- not exactly the type of return you’d expect from someone with an $8.25 million cap hit.

Maybe missing the preseason put him behind the curve, contributing to his shaky start, but he doesn’t seem to be stabilizing as the campaign goes on. To be fair, he does have his moments, but his good starts have been counterbalanced by disastrous ones, like allowing six goals on 22 shots en route to an 8-2 loss to Carolina on Oct. 31 or surrendering seven goals on 38 shots in Boston’s 7-2 loss to Dallas on Thursday. Swayman also just has a lot of uninspired starts sprinkled in there -- nine of his 13 outings have involved him surrendering at least three goals.

Maybe it’s the pressure of the contract getting to him, especially with how much he appeared to have to battle to get that deal. There’s a big mental aspect to goaltending, so it’s not hard to see how a slow start, coupled with the new deal, and perhaps even the absence of his longtime friend and goaltending partner Ullmark, could all snowball to create this outcome. Whatever the case, though, Boston is in waters that have been rare for it since the start of the cap era: They have a problem between the pipes.

Colorado has endured its own goaltending issues, but at least the Avalanche are tied for 10th offensively with 3.47 goals per game and could do even better now that their forward corps is largely healthy. They’re still missing Gabriel Landeskog (knee) and Ross Colton (foot), but Jonathan Drouin (upper body), Valeri Nichushkin (suspension) and Artturi Lehkonen (shoulder) are all back, giving them far more options than they’ve had in a while.

This is being written before Friday’s game against Washington, which is set to see the return of Nichushkin, but it looks like the tentative plan is to run two elite lines. Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen typically play together, giving the Avalanche one nearly unstoppable unit, but instead, Colorado is slated to break them up, putting MacKinnon with Lehkonen and Drouin while Rantanen will share the ice with Nichushkin and Casey Mittelstadt. If that works out, then it could make things extremely tough on the opposition's defense. It’s a luxury the Avalanche arguably couldn’t afford earlier in the season because the quality of the linemates for MacKinnon and Rantanen wouldn’t have been sufficient to split them, but at this point, it’s something they can experiment with.

It also means Ivan Ivan and Nikolai Kovalenko are now firmly in the bottom six. There was an opportunity for one or both to show what they could do with greater responsibilities when the team was ravaged by injuries, but neither stepped up. At this stage, it seems reasonable to project that Ivan and Kovalenko won’t have significant fantasy value this year, but at least they’re still okay complimentary pieces for the Avalanche.

All-in-all, Colorado’s offense looks strong at this point. The Avalanche are already on a roll, winning four of their past five games, and Colorado could continue to shine from here.

Anaheim Ducks – Mon @ DAL, Tue @ CHI, Fri vs BUF

You can get whiplash going from a conversation about the Avalanche’s offense to Anaheim’s. MacKinnon has 33 points through 17 games by himself. That equals the combined point totals of the Ducks’ top four scorers -- Troy Terry (11 points), Mason McTavish (eight), Leo Carlsson (seven) and Ryan Strome (seven).

The Ducks are consequently unlikely to generate much offense when they play in Dallas on Monday, but Anaheim might have more success in Chicago on Tuesday and when hosting Buffalo on Friday.

Health will be a factor in that. McTavish has missed the Ducks’ past two games because of an upper-body injury, but he’s day-to-day, so there’s a real chance he’ll be fine for next week’s action.

Even with him back, though, the Ducks need help on offense. A resurgence of Trevor Zegras would be the most obvious boost. However, he had just 15 points in 31 contests in 2023-24 and has diminished further to just three points through 15 appearances this season -- a far cry from his back-to-back 60-plus point campaigns in 2021-22 and 2022-23. He’s still just 23 years old, so it seems wrong to suggest he’s washed up, but then what is the problem?

First off, his lone goal this campaign was scored on an empty net, so you’d have to go back to April 13 to find the last time he beat an NHL goaltender in a regular-season game. He’s averaging 6.3 shots per 60 minutes in 2024-25, which is down from 8.1 in 2021-22 and 7.2 in 2022-23, so that doesn’t help. Seven of his 27 shots this year have been fired from a high-danger position, which puts him below the league average of 7.9 among forwards. All that’s bad, but not to the extent where he should have literally zero goals against goaltenders.

Moneypuck gives him an xG of 3.6, he has a PDO of 951 along with exactly zero secondary assists and his IPP of 42.9 is leagues below his career average. All that suggests some of his offensive woes are due to poor luck. Still, three points in 15 appearances is so bad that it’s hard to imagine him having a good campaign even if the luck was balanced.

Still, he’s worth keeping an eye on. The talent is there, and there are some indications that he’s been shifting to a more complete game despite his lack of offense, as Patrick Present of The Hockey News recently noted. Plus, he’s still young, and when coupled with him attempting to adjust his game, some growing pains are understandable. Don’t expect this to be a big campaign from him, but also don’t write him off yet.

Boston Bruins – Mon vs CBJ, Thu vs UTA, Sat @ DET

We talked about Swayman’s woes up top. Perhaps it will help him that the Bruins’ opponents next week rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of goals per game. Boston is set to host the Blue Jackets on Monday and Utah HC on Thursday before playing in Detroit on Saturday.

Swayman is the headline issue for the Bruins, but he isn’t the only one. The forward corps is also leaving something to be desired. We’ve seen better out of David Pastrnak (eight goals and 17 points through 18 games) and Brad Marchand (five goals and 13 points), but both are doing well enough, even when measured against the high standards they’re held to. The problem is no other player on the team has reached double digits in points.

Elias Lindholm, who signed a seven-year, $54.25 million contract over the summer, was the Bruins’ big offseason get to solidify the team up the middle. However, he hasn’t been that great. After scoring two goals and five points over his first three games with Boston, Lindholm has been limited to four assists across his past 15 outings. To be fair, he’s known for his two-way game, and his relative CF% and FF% are outstanding at plus-8.8 and plus-12.2, respectively. Still, you’d like to see more scoring out of him when he’s spending almost all of his 5-on-5 time alongside at least one of Pastrnak and Marchand.

Pavel Zacha has left something to be desired too with three goals and seven points through 18 outings after finishing 2023-24 with 59 points. He might be heating up, though. Zacha has two goals and four points through his past four appearances, so perhaps he can carry that momentum into next week, especially given the mediocre nature of Boston’s upcoming competition.

Chicago Blackhawks – Tue vs ANA, Thu vs FLA, Sat @ PHI

Chicago will host the Ducks and the Panthers on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before visiting Philadelphia on Saturday. Florida is a tough team, but the Ducks and the Flyers haven’t looked good so far in 2024-25.

Not that the Blackhawks have impressed either with their 6-10-1 record. Petr Mrazek has largely held his own with a 2.79 GAA and a .906 save percentage in 13 appearances, which are solid numbers when you consider that Chicago ranks 28th in xGA/60 (3.39), which suggests Mrazek hasn’t gotten much help from his teammates defensively.

They also haven’t helped Mrazek offensively. Chicago is tied for 29th with just 2.41 goals per game, and even Connor Bedard has left something to be desired with three goals and 13 points through 17 appearances. Bedard is on an eight-game goal-scoring slump with four assists in that span, but let’s not be too hard on him. He’s still just 19 years old, so some streaky play is expected, and he has a healthy enough 21 shots during that slump, so eventually he’ll break through.

I’m more disappointed in Teuvo Teravainen. He signed a three-year, $16.2 million contract over the summer to come to Chicago from Carolina and has been primarily used alongside Bedard. However, Teravainen hasn’t been able to generate much of anything in 5-on-5 play with the young star. The 30-year-old has four goals and eight points through 17 appearances with just two of those points (one goal) coming at even strength. Interesting, his 5-on-5 xG is also just one, so the issue isn’t exactly bad puck luck.

Bedard has also been tried with Taylor Hall and/or Tyler Bertuzzi, but significantly less often than Teravainen. Philipp Kurashev has seen significant time alongside Bedard as well, though Kurashev has just three goals and four points through 16 outings. That’s a massive drop from Kurashev’s 54-point showing in 2023-24, and the decline is largely due to a lack of assists.

The line mixing is likely to continue to happen as long as Chicago’s offense remains cold. In the long run, it would be nice to see Kurashev and Bedard rekindle some of their 2023-24 chemistry -- they showed up together on the scoresheet 25 times last season. If we start seeing some of that, then Kurashev would become a good buy-low candidate.

Dallas Stars – Mon vs ANA, Wed vs SJS, Sat @ TBL

Dallas will start the week by hosting the lowly Ducks and Sharks on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. The Stars will then travel to Tampa Bay to play the Lightning on Saturday.

Matt Duchene will look to extend his recent success during that stretch. He has a phenomenal eight goals and 17 points across his past 10 appearances, including two goals and five points over his last two games. He’s been seeing time alongside Mason Marchment, who is also on fire with two goals and seven points over his past two outings, so that duo could do a lot of damage, especially against rebuilding squads like Anaheim and San Jose.

At the other end of the spectrum, Dallas could use more out of Roope Hintz. His six goals and 10 points through 15 outings aren’t bad, but it’s below the pace Dallas has come to expect after seeing Hintz record at least 30 goals and 65 points in each of his previous three campaigns. Hintz did endure a four-game scoring drought from Oct. 26-Nov. 7, but there’s a silver lining here because he’s found the back of the net twice over his past three games, so perhaps the worst is over.

The action is also spread out enough that Jake Oettinger might start in all three of those games. He’s 8-3-0 with a 2.39 GAA and .914 save percentage in 11 appearances in 2024-25. He’s also coming off two really strong victories, stopping 43 of 46 shots in blowout wins against Pittsburgh and Boston.

Detroit Red Wings – Mon @ SJS, Thu vs NYI, Sat vs BOS

The Red Wings will play in San Jose on Monday before hosting the Islanders on Thursday and the Bruins on Saturday. Detroit will be looking to gain some ground after a mediocre 7-7-1 start.

Detroit has to be disappointed with Vladimir Tarasenko, who inked a two-year, $9.5 million contract over the summer but has just two goals and four points through 14 appearances. This one is a bit of a “the chicken or the egg” problem. Tarasenko is averaging just 13:41 of ice time while typically serving on the third line alongside Jonatan Berggren and Marco Kasper. That’s not a recipe for success or the top six role many envisioned when he signed his deal. At the same time, he hasn’t done anything to force himself into a bigger role. From Oct. 22-Nov. 2, he appeared in five games without even recording a single shot.

You’re not going to move up in the lineup with that kind of play. On the plus side, he has logged an assist and seven shots over his past two outings, so maybe we’re witnessing the start of him getting some going. I’m skeptical, but it’s worthy of monitoring.

Detroit could certainly use another source of secondary scoring. The Red Wings rank 28th offensively with just 2.47 goals per game. Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin have done fine with 14, 13 and 12 points, respectively, through 15 appearances and Patrick Kane is holding his own at 35, providing three goals and 10 points. The rest of the offense hasn’t been anything to write home about, though, and no one aside from maybe Tarasenko jumps out to me as a struggling forward to watch.

That includes Michael Rasmussen. He was taken with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, but he has never even reached the 35-point mark and has just two goals and four points in 15 outings in 2024-25. He’s a towering presence, but at the age of 25, I think it’s fair to believe that the offense isn’t coming.

Edmonton Oilers – Mon @ MTL, Tue @ OTT, Thu vs MIN, Sat vs COL

The Oilers will open the week with road games in Montreal on Monday and Ottawa on Tuesday. They’ll then return to Edmonton to host the Wild on Thursday and the Rangers on Saturday.

Edmonton had a mixed start to the season in part because of inconsistent offensive production, but it’s okay now: Connor McDavid remembered that he’s Connor McDavid. The superstar has posted three straight multi-point efforts, causing him to jump to six goals and 19 points through 14 appearances despite a weirdly human start in which he recorded three goals and 10 points in his first 11 outings -- good for others, not for him.

If McDavid has found his grove, then Edmonton is in a far better position, but the Oilers do still have some areas of concern. Stuart Skinner is still a mixed bag with a 5-5-1 record, 3.22 GAA and .881 save percentage in 11 outings. You’ll likely remember that Skinner had a terrible start to 2023-24 before turning a corner, and it could be argued that his Nov. 24 25-save shutout over Washington was when everything started working out for him last year. In other words, we’re getting to roughly the same stage of the year, and we’ll have to see if Skinner can once again find his rhythm or if he doesn’t enjoy that same kind of turnaround in 2024-25.

Edmonton’s offseason attempts at deepening the offense also haven’t paid off yet. Jeff Skinner has just three goals and six points while Viktor Arvidsson has two goals and five points. Arvidsson is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, so we might not see him this week. Meanwhile, Skinner has been relegated to the fourth line recently. Skinner has had a weird career full of amazing highs and significant lows. There’s consequently no guarantee that a turnaround is forthcoming this year, but if he does get another look on Edmonton’s top six, which I think is just a matter of time, then he’ll be worth keeping an eye on.

San Jose Sharks – Mon vs DET, Wed @ DAL, Thu @ STL, Sat vs BUF

I like to highlight teams who are set to play four games in a week over those with three or two games on the docket, but there aren’t many examples of that upcoming. San Jose is one of the exceptions. The Sharks’ busy schedule will begin by hosting the Red Wings on Monday. They’ll then play in Dallas on Wednesday and St. Louis on Thursday before returning home to face the Sabres on Saturday.

Naturally, if you’re going to watch Sharks hockey, the player you’ll be most interested in is Macklin Celebrini. Taken with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, he was out from Oct. 12-Nov. 2 due to a lower-body injury. Unfortunately, he’s been mostly quiet since, providing two goals Nov. 7 but also being held off the scoresheet entirely in his other four appearances dating back to his Nov. 5 return.

It's too small of a sample size to read too much into it, but Celebrini is a tremendous talent who is averaging 19:25 of ice time and has recorded 20 shots over six outings in 2024-25, so I expect him to start producing at a good pace as the campaign progresses.

In the meantime, Mikael Granlund has done his part. He has seven goals and 18 points in 18 games to lead the Sharks offensively this season. A lot of that was due to him recording five goals and 12 points across seven outings from Oct. 17-28, though. He’s been fine since, but his two goals and five points over his past eight contests are a noticeable decline. There might be some merit to selling him high, but I think his goal-scoring pace, which would lead to him finishing with 32 markers, has actual merit.

He’s never reached the 30-goal milestone before and finished 2023-24 with just 12 goals, but he’s traditionally been a very conservative shooter. That’s changed in a big way this year -- he's averaging a career-high 9.9 shots per 60 minutes, and that includes 14 high-danger shots, which puts him on track for 64, up from 44 last year. His increase in shots also means that his 10.9 shooting percentage isn’t significantly off his career average (10.3) despite his big jump in goals.

Granlund and Celebrini are currently centering different lines, but they share the ice on the power play. Although Sharks rank 23rd in terms of power-play percentage (16.4), that might improve as Celebrini gets going, which would also benefit Granlund.

Utah HC – Mon vs WAS, Thu @ BOS, Sat @ PIT, Sun @ TOR

Utah HC is another squad with four games on the schedule next week. The club will host the Capitals on Monday before a road trip that will place Utah HC in Boston on Thursday, Pittsburgh on Saturday and Toronto on Sunday.

Utah has been an interesting team. It got off to a 3-0-0 start fueled by some great offensive performances, but the scoring has cooled, and the club is now 7-6-3.

One positive is Mikhail Sergachev has messed well with his new team after being dealt from Tampa Bay in June. Sergachev has three goals and 11 points in 16 outings in 2024-25 while averaging 25:35 of ice time -- that'll be a career high if he maintains it for the full campaign. He also has a big power-play role and has collected three points (one goal) with the man advantage. It’s reasonable to project he’ll surpass the 50-point milestone for the second time in his career as long as he stays healthy.

Up front, Clayton Keller (six goals, 14 points), Dylan Guenther (seven goals, 13 points), Nick Schmaltz (12 assists) and Logan Cooley (two goals, 11 points) have been leading the charge, but none of them are especially hot right now. Nick Bjugstad is an interesting forward, though. He’s capable of being a solid secondary scorer, but he averaged just 13:20 of ice time this season, down from 17:27 in 2023-24. He did make his mark Wednesday, though, scoring his first two goals of the campaign to lead Utah to a 4-1 victory over Carolina. Bjugstad is getting a chance to play alongside Keller and Schmaltz, so he might be able to build off that strong showing.

That would help Utah, but what the club needs more than anything is reliability between the pipes. Although Connor Ingram has a respectable 6-3-3 record, his 3.40 GAA and .879 aren’t inspiring. Meanwhile, Karel Vejmelka is just 1-3-0, but he has a 2.37 GAA and a .926 save percentage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vejmelka get more work, perhaps leading to him starting in at least two of Utah’s games next week.

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MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – DETROIT RED WINGS – Team Preview https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2024-25-nhl-yearbook-detroit-red-wings-team-preview/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2024-25-nhl-yearbook-detroit-red-wings-team-preview/#respond Thu, 26 Sep 2024 20:00:00 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=188446 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – DETROIT RED WINGS – Team Preview

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OTTAWA, ON - FEBRUARY 28: Detroit Red Wings Center Dylan Larkin (71) applies pressure on the forecheck during first period National Hockey League action between the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators on February 28, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

Signing Patrick Kane in late November wasn’t quite enough. Although Kane rebounded nicely from his hip resurfacing surgery, providing 20 goals and 47 points in 50 contests to help Detroit finish a respectable ninth offensively (3.35 goals per game), the team struggled defensively, ranking 25th with a 3.28 xGA/60, and dealt with inconsistent goaltending, leading to the Red Wings finishing with a 41-32-9 record and a sliver out of the playoffs. Although it was Detroit’s eighth straight campaign without a playoff berth, it was at least the team’s best showing since 2015-16 in terms of PTS%.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Detroit watched forwards Daniel Sprong and David Perron, defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere, and goaltender James Reimer depart as unrestricted free agents, but the Red Wings were able to retain the services of Patrick Kane, who inked a one-year, $6.5 million deal. Detroit also attempted to stabilize its goaltending situation with the signing of Cam Talbot and bolstered its offence by inking Vladimir Tarasenko. Erik Gustafsson was brought in to help round out the blue line while Jack Campbell will be given a shot at redemption on a one-year, $775,000 contract.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Detroit is at a point now where anything short of a playoff berth should be seen as a disappointment. The Red Wings’ offence is certainly sufficient to accomplish that task, especially with the addition of Tarasenko, but is their goaltending good enough? Talbot was able to be of great help to the Kings last year, posting a 27-20-6 record, 2.50 GAA and .913 save percentage in 54 contests. On top of that, Campbell looked good in the minors last season after falling out of favor in Edmonton, so he shouldn’t be discounted. Throw Ville Husso and Alex Lyon into the mix and Detroit has a wealth of potential starters.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? There’s a reason why Detroit has so many experienced netminders: none of them are sure things. Talbot has the best track record, but he’s also 37 years old, so who knows how good he’ll be. Campbell’s recent success in the minors won’t necessarily translate to the NHL, especially after some truly dreary results with Edmonton. Lyon was good at points in 2023-24, but overall, he was average at best, which isn’t good enough in Detroit because the defence in front of the goaltending has been the true Achilles’ heel. If the Red Wings make life as tough as they did for their netminders in 2023-24, then this might be another lost year for Detroit.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Hungry to end its playoff drought, Detroit is expected to feature of roster heavy on veterans. Simon Edvinsson figures to be one of the sole exceptions. The No. 6 overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, Edvinsson might even serve in a top-four capacity this season. He recorded eight goals and 30 points across 54 AHL contests last season, though his offensive upside doesn’t compare to Detroit’s other young blueliner, Moritz Seider. However, the 21-year-old Edvinsson is a towering, physical presence and might provide the kind of help Detroit’s goaltenders desperately need.

FORWARD

Dylan Larkin

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
79 35 50 85 1.08

As Dylan Larkin goes, so do the hopes of the Detroit Red Wings returning to the postseason. As the team captain, he’s the beating heart of the team and his performance is what pushes their offence. In 68 games, Larkin finished second on the team in points with 69 points, three behind Lucas Raymond. His 33 goals led the team and his 1.01 points per game was the highest rate on the roster. Larkin was a dual threat player racking up 17 of his 33 goals at even strength and another 14 on the power play that was bolstered by the presence of Patrick Kane and defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere. Larkin’s 26 power play points were second behind Gostisbehere’s 29 and he even added two shorthanded goals as well. Larkin’s all-around play drives the Red Wings to success and when his teammates can play to his level, it makes Detroit a dangerous team to deal with. As a center, he was outstanding on faceoffs and won more than 55 percent of his draws to help ensure possession. Even though his point totals don’t rank out with the elite scorers in the NHL, a fully healthy season would show off what he can do to help cure the Red Wings’ playoff drought. With the way the team rallies around him when he’s playing, he’s the most important player on the team.

Lucas Raymond

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 35 48 83 1.01

Sophomore slumps are often a curious thing because they cast doubt on the players who have them following great rookie campaigns. Two years ago, Raymond’s second NHL season saw him hit roadblocks along the way and his offensive numbers dipped. But after his performance last season, he showed that he is the real deal and will be vital to the future success of the Red Wings. Raymond led the team in scoring with 72 points in 82 games. His 31 goals were second behind Dylan Larkin and his 25 even strength goals were most on the team. That he posted 56 points at even strength highlighted how good he was in general. What’s even more remarkable is that Raymond was able to pile up goals while not exactly pumping a ton of shots on net (163) at just under two shots per game. Raymond proved to be a puck hound around the net cashing in on loose pucks but still capable of sniping shots past goaltenders when he has the opportunity. The Red Wings struggled defensively in respect to controlling shot attempts and shot quality at five-on-five, but Raymond was among the best on the roster at controlling play behind Dylan Larkin. If the Red Wings are going to improve in those areas, it’ll be behind Raymond and others.

Patrick Kane

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
70 22 36 58 0.83

There was so much fascination with how Patrick Kane was going to perform upon his return to the NHL following hip surgery. With the way Kane performed for Detroit, it highlighted what’s made him one of the best players in NHL history. In 50 games, Kane scored 20 goals and had 27 assists averaging 0.97 points per game, second on the team behind Dylan Larkin in that category. Kane’s performance as a playmaker and distributor was apparent and while he’s not as speedy or quite as agile as he once was, so much of what he did last season was reminiscent of the kind of player he was. Kane was a boon to the Red Wings’ power play and had 15 points on the man advantage including two goals. The Red Wings needed a boost to their offence after it struggled so mightily two seasons ago and Kane helped fulfill that need immediately upon entering the lineup. Kane reunited with former Chicago teammate Alex DeBrincat in Detroit and recaptured that chemistry and likely helped make his entrance to the lineup easier. What’s more impressive is he played most of his five-on-five minutes with J.T. Compher at center instead of Larkin. With that season post-surgery under his belt, it will be interesting to see how Kane handles an 82-game season with full training camp to prepare. At 35 years old, these seasons get tougher, but considering what he’s gone through before, it’ll be hard to ignore him.

Alex DeBrincat

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 28 42 70 0.85

One of the biggest acquisitions the Detroit Red Wings made last summer was the trade that brought Alex DeBrincat into the fold. That they pulled him away from division rival Ottawa was boon enough, but with the way he fit into the Detroit lineup right away, it showed that bringing a guy back to his hometown team can work out great. DeBrincat had 27 goals and 40 assists in 82 games for the Red Wings and teamed up with his old Chicago Blackhawks teammate Patrick Kane to provide a second line with a lot of scoring punch. He proved to be a threat both at even strength and on the power play with 16 goals coming at evens and another 11 on the man advantage. Even though he was an outstanding goal scorer in Chicago and Ottawa, he proved to be a valuable setup man last season. His 40 assists were third most on the team behind Shayne Gostisbehere and Lucas Raymond and given his proficiency at scoring goals, drawing opponents away from teammates and feeding them to score is a good plan. DeBrincat was a universal offensive boost to the lineup. While he was mostly on Larkin’s wing with Lucas Raymond on the other side, when Kane arrived, they teamed up with J.T. Compher often to form a second attacking line. Spreading out the wealth in the lineup was wise because it helped open their attack. With the addition of Vladimir Tarasenko, how coach Derek Lalonde sets his lines bears watching, but you can assume DeBrincat will receive a prime offensive role.

Vladimir Tarasenko

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
65 17 28 45 0.69

While the Red Wings landed a big fish in free agency last season with Patrick Kane, this summer brought them another former big scoring veteran to strengthen their offence in Vladimir Tarasenko. Tarasenko joins the Red Wings after a season in which he split time between Ottawa and Florida and culminated with winning his second Stanley Cup in five years as part of the Panthers. At 32 years old, Tarasenko is not the hard-firing sniper he was years ago with the St. Louis Blues, but he is still a capable offensive weapon. Between Ottawa and Florida, he had 23 goals 32 assists (55 points) and added another five goals and four assists during the Panthers’ run to the Stanley Cup in 24 games. While on a not-as deep Senators team, he played more than 16 minutes per game, but saw that ice time drop with Florida to under 14 minutes a game. Detroit likely wasn’t planning to bank on riding Tarasenko for big minutes, if he’s able to generate 50 points and 20 goals again getting similar ice time, that would provide a huge lift to their depth scoring. There’s also the possibility he may reunite with Kane (the two played together with the New York Rangers in 2023). Tarasenko is a wicked competitor and showed he’s got some bite to his game to go with the offensive skills regarding mixing it up in scrums. Although he won’t have the same play style as the now departed David Perron, the role may be similar, just with more looks to score.

J.T. Compher

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 19 34 53 0.65

When J.T. Compher arrived in Detroit as a free agent from Colorado last summer, the hope was he would be able to hop right into the lineup in a second line center role and give the Red Wings a different look from what Dylan Larkin provided on the first line. Compher’s more defensive inclinations allowed him to provide balance with wingers who were not as strong in their own end of the ice and that proved to be of great value to the Red Wings with the additions of Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane. What’s more impressive is that Compher’s production didn’t fall off at all coming from the Avalanche. Compher had his best goal scoring season putting up 19 goals along with 29 assists last season and his 48 points missed a career-high by four points despite missing five games. Compher was able to supplant Andrew Copp on the second line and improved the Detroit attack in the process. If there was one area Compher struggled with it was at faceoffs. He won 44.8 percent of his draws which made it a little harder for his line to start with possession. Otherwise, he arrived in Detroit as advertised and produced exactly the way he figured to and that’s about all you can ask for when it comes to free agents. It would seem likely he’ll have Kane back on his line and it’s only a question of whether it’ll be DeBrincat or Vladimir Tarasenko on the other side.

Andrew Copp

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
80 14 23 37 0.46

When Copp signed with the Red Wings two summers ago, the expectation was that he would use that big offensive season with the Winnipeg Jets and New York Rangers and his naturally strong offensive play to help him return home to Michigan and be the second line center they needed. Instead, his goals dropped from 21 to nine and his point total dropped off by 11. Even worse still, his possession numbers cratered in Detroit. All of this pointed to Copp being a bit over his head in a new role in what’s become a high-pressure situation as the Red Wings attempt to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. With J.T. Compher’s addition last summer, Copp was able to slide into a role as the third line center and although his point totals fell again, his goal total went up. He had 13 goals and 20 assists, and his average ice time dropped to just over 16 minutes, down from 18. His possession numbers remained the same, however, with a five-on-five shot attempt percentage just below 45 percent. Those aren’t the kinds of results a team wants from guys in a more defensive role and that must improve if Detroit is going to be a true playoff threat this season. Ideally, an improvement in shot metrics and a boosted offensive output would go a long way for both Copp and the Red Wings and with three years left on his contract, it’s necessary.

Michael Rasmussen

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
77 12 22 34 0.44

When the Red Wings selected Michael Rasmussen in the first round of the 2017 draft, the hope was that he would develop into a powerful scoring forward that used his size to create havoc around the net. While that hasn’t happened in the NHL, the 6-foot-6, 220 pound forward has made a home for himself in the bottom six of the lineup. In 75 games last season, Rasmussen had 13 goals and 20 assists while also delivering 124 hits and 76 blocked shots. Playing a physical game helps him stand out amongst his Red Wings teammates as they’re not really an overly physical team up front in the first place. Among forwards, Rasmussen was second in hits behind Christian Fischer and tops in shots blocked. Every team needs role players and for Detroit, Rasmussen’s contributions are abundantly clear. The downside to playing that style of hockey can come in the form of poor shot metrics and that’s certainly the case for Rasmussen whose shot attempt and shot quality percentages at five-on-five are below 44 percent. That’s not ideal, but the hope is that a deeper group at forward will be able to help improve those numbers. Whether he’s on the third or fourth line, he’s out there to play the heavy.

Joseph Veleno

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
70 12 19 31 0.39

Entering his fifth NHL season, Joseph Veleno has locked himself into a role in Detroit’s bottom six forward group in a checking role but one with his junior hockey scoring instincts still intact. Veleno had 12 goals and 16 assists in 80 games last season while he averaged fewer than 14 minutes per game. Detroit’s third and fourth lines functioned as a kind of change-up from their far more offensively talented first and second lines and Veleno leaned into that delivering 108 hits. Those numbers were down a touch from his previous two seasons with 123 and 156 hits respectively, but the uptick in offence was certainly welcomed. Veleno’s 28 points set a new career high for him and that included a bit of action on the power play where he scored three goals. If the situation and contracts were different, Veleno could challenge Andrew Copp for a spot centering the third line, but considering each player produces roughly similar results it’s more of a toss-up between which guy is going more. Like everyone else lower in the lineup, Veleno needs to help improve the shot differential numbers and give their goaltenders more of a break. If his evolution as more of a defensive forward improves, it could go a long way to helping the Red Wings.

DEFENCE

Moritz Seider

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 11 45 56 0.68

As the Red Wings’ No. 1 defenceman as well as their youngest member, the expectations set upon Moritz Seider are, indeed, lofty. After he won the Calder Trophy in 2022, the hope was he would build upon that outstanding 50-point season and lean a little more into his offensive game. However, he’s posted 42 points in each of the past two seasons but set a career high in goals last season with nine. Some of the offensive responsibilities were taken off his plate last season by Shayne Gostisbehere, but with Gostisbehere gone to Carolina and Jake Walman traded to San Jose, the need for Seider to better embrace his offensive game is immediate. Fortunately, he’s leaned into using his size more often. He led Detroit in hits (211) and blocked shots (212) and his 22:22 played per game was the most on the team as well. That’s just part of what’s expected out of a No. 1 defenceman who at 6-foot-3, 205 pounds can change a game by playing to his size. What’s somewhat concerning was the dip in Seider’s five-on-five possession numbers. Team-wide those statistics weren’t great and indicative of why Detroit missed the postseason, but Seider’s shot attempt and shot quality percentages were the lowest of his career. Given his workload, those numbers must improve if Detroit is going to be a serious playoff contender.

Ben Chiarot

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
76 4 14 18 0.24

Much of what’s been asked of Ben Chiarot since he signed with the Red Wings two summers ago has happened. He was asked to be a physical player who blocks shots and leans into being every bit of a defensive defenceman. Last season, he had more blocked shots (167) than hits (163) and was among the team leaders in time played on the penalty kill. There was a downside, however. At five-on-five, Chiarot was on the ice for the second most shot attempts against behind Moritz Seider as Chiarot faced 27 fewer shot attempts. The issue there is Seider played nearly 39 more minutes than Chiarot did. His shot attempt percentage at five-on-five was lowest among defencemen at 43.6. Being a defenceman is somewhat like being a shot sponge, but to that degree is not something any coach would like to see. Chiarot scored five goals and had 15 assists last season, his fourth season with 20 or more points and he kept the penalty minutes down to a respectable 56. Much is asked of Chiarot considering he averaged nearly 20 minutes per game (19:47) but it stands to reason Detroit might be better off if his role was more specialized situationally. Instead, it’s lining up that he’ll be a fixture in their top four group on the blue line again.

Erik Gustafsson

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
78 7 28 35 0.45

With the departure of Shayne Gostisbehere to Carolina in free agency, the Red Wings needed a puck moving defenceman with strong offensive instincts. That’s a role Erik Gustafsson was made to fill. Last season with the New York Rangers, Gustafsson generally paired with Jacob Trouba to be a counterpart to his physical defensive style of play on the Rangers second pairing. He had six goals and 25 assists, nine on the power play, in helping the Rangers to the Eastern Conference Final against Florida. Throughout his career, Gustafsson has been an offensive specialist on the blue line with the ability to move the puck through all three zones and make good decisions on passes. That ability will be desperately needed for the Red Wings who, outside of Moritz Seider, don’t really have a defenceman who can do that especially well. Although he’s not an overly strong defensive player, the Red Wings have a few other guys who specialize in playing that way. Depending on who Gustafsson is paired with, be it Olli Maatta or perhaps rookie Simon Edvinsson, his job will be to be the puck mover and offensive catalyst from the back end. If he can tap into what made him nearly a 50-point player six seasons ago in Chicago, that would be a huge bonus. But should he remain steady as a 25-to-35-point player, that’ll do just fine.

Jeff Petry

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
74 5 22 27 0.36

Veteran Jeff Petry returned home to Michigan last season after a pair of offseason trades going from Pittsburgh to Montreal as part of the Erik Karlsson three-way trade and then from Montreal to Detroit for Gustav Lindstrom. His addition was meant to give the Red Wings a solid veteran with a good shot and someone who could help contribute to the power play. In 73 games, Petry scored three goals and had 21 assists last season and averaged nearly 19 minutes of ice time per game. Shayne Gostisbehere’s presence prevented Petry from seeing power play time and he played 17 minutes with the man advantage as Detroit opted for Gostisbehere’s more offensive instincts and quicker feet over Petry and his heavy shot. Defensively, Petry struggled. At five-on-five, he had the second lowest shot attempt percentage among defencemen at 44.6 but had a slightly better shot quality percentage of 47.1, fourth best among defencemen. As it is, he’s a third pairing defenceman and, ideally, his presence on a playoff team would come in handy given his experience in the league. Asking more of him now may be asking a lot, but with the lack of major additions to the blue line this summer, Petry will be counted on to be a bigger contributor.

GOAL

Alex Lyon

Predicted Stats
GP W L OT SO SV% GAA
32 17 12 3 1 0.903 2.93

Cam Talbot

Predicted Stats
GP W L OT SO SV% GAA
44 23 17 4 2 0.904 2.88

If Cam Talbot felt bitter about the fact that the Ottawa Senators failed to shore him up with a contract renewal at the start of last season, he certainly didn't let it show in his play with the Los Angeles Kings - and as a result, he earned himself that coveted security in the form of a new multi-year deal for the Detroit Red Wings during this summer's free agency period. That could mean new and exciting things for the Red Wings, who have hopefully put their bottomed-out years firmly in the rearview mirror and look poised to take a step back towards potential wild card contention. Talbot brings the perfect amount of veteran experience to tandem with either Alex Lyon, who is heading into the second year of his own two-year stint with the Atlantic team, or Ville Husso, who comes with a fairly high price tag but an underperforming stat line last season. It's a three-goalie stare down heading into the new season, and there's no clear-cut option for who should get the lion's share of the starts.

If it feels like the Red Wings have cycled through an above-average number of goaltenders the last few years, that's because they have; rather than gambling on big-money free agents, they've opted to plug-and-play with cheaper, short-term but high-upside options while sitting outside their next prime window. And Talbot, while a steadying presence in net with some life left in his game, likely isn't set to be their next big thing, either. Signing him, though, signals that the Red Wings are still content to wait for Sebastian Cossa to finish developing - and the signal that they don't plan to rush him is yet another praise-worthy sign from the team that might be poised to make some noise next year.

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NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Looking at teams with something to play for as season comes to close https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-dadoun-fantasy-week-teams-play-season-close/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-dadoun-fantasy-week-teams-play-season-close/#respond Mon, 15 Apr 2024 14:30:02 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=186067 Read More... from NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Looking at teams with something to play for as season comes to close

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Detroit Red Wings right wing Alex DeBrincat (93) (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Barring any postponements, the final day of the 2023-24 regular season with be Thursday. There are just 26 total games remaining before the playoffs get underway, so naturally there aren’t many teams to highlight for the final week. With that in mind, instead of picking out the teams with the most favorable schedules, I’m going to focus on the teams who have something left to play for this week. So, let’s dive into what the final days of the campaign will look like.

Please note that this week’s article is heavily skewed toward the Eastern Conference because there are still two playoff spots open while there isn’t much left to be decided in the West.

New York Islanders – MON VS NJD, WED VS PIT

The Islanders haven’t punched their playoff ticket, but they’re very likely to advance to the postseason. They have a 30-27-16 record, which is good for third in the Metropolitan Division.

They’ll play in New Jersey on Monday and host the Penguins on Wednesday. The Islanders can guarantee their playoff spot by picking up two points over those two contests. However, New York has a three-point advantage over the next closest non-playoff adversary, so there are scenarios where the Islanders can make the playoffs even if they go 0-2-0.

The Islanders’ task will be made more difficult if Noah Dobson remains out of the lineup. The defenseman has 10 goals and 70 points in 79 outings, but he missed Saturday’s 3-2 shootout loss to the Rangers due to an upper-body injury. Robert Bortuzzo dressed Saturday as a result of Dobson’s absence, but he’s not a replacement for the star blueliner -- Bortuzzo has no points through 25 appearances between St. Louis and the Islanders this season.

On the bright side for the Islanders, Brock Nelson is ending the campaign on a positive note. He scored twice Saturday to extend his point streak to three games. That gives the 32-year-old forward 32 markers and 65 points across 80 outings in 2023-24. He’ll almost certainly finish behind his 2022-23 mark of 75 points, but this is still the second-best campaign of his career in terms of total points.

If goal, Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin will likely split the final two contests. Assuming the Islanders make the playoffs, it will be interesting to see who starts in Game 1. It’ll probably be Sorokin, but Varlamov has earned consideration thanks to his 2.66 GAA and .916 save percentage in 27 games, which tops Sorokin’s 2.99 GAA and .909 save percentage. The Islanders have also used Varlamov quite a bit recently, deploying him in seven of their past 11 games.

Washington Capitals – MON VS BOS, TUE @ PHI (BTB)

The Capitals made things tough for themselves by going 0-4-2 from March 28-April 7, but Washington might still be able to salvage the situation after winning its last three contests. The Capitals have 87 points (38-31-11), which puts them in the second wild-card seed. Detroit and Philadelphia are tied with Washington in points, but the Capitals have the edge in the tiebreaker over the Red Wings and a game in hand compared to Philadelphia. Additionally, Pittsburgh is one point shy of those three squads. All that is to say, Washington’s hold on its playoff spot is by the narrowest of margins.

The Capitals will host the Bruins on Monday and play in Philadelphia on Tuesday to conclude the season. Washington will make the playoffs if it wins both games. If the Capitals lose against the Bruins, then Tuesday’s season finale becomes a must-win and even then, it’s possible for the Capitals to miss the playoffs in the scenario where they lose Monday but beat the Flyers.

Alexander Ovechkin has been a major driver of the Capitals’ playoff push, scoring 22 goals and 35 points over his past 34 outings. However, he has slowed a little recently, providing a goal and an assist across Washington’s past four appearances, so his hot run might be over. The 38-year-old star has had a season of extreme highs and lows, but he’s done well overall, contributing 30 goals and 64 points in 77 outings.

Interestingly, it was Sonny Milano who served as Washington’s hero Saturday, providing two goals en route to a 4-2 victory over Tampa Bay. He has just 15 markers and 23 points in 47 appearances this season, but the 27-year-old also had a hat trick versus Carolina on March 22 and a four-game goal-scoring streak from March 1-9, so he can on occasion be a major factor and perhaps that will hold true during Washington’s final stretch. Still, his limited playing time puts a damper on his potential. Milano logged just 10:08 of ice time Saturday and has averaged 12:34 this season.

A safer bet for production over Washington’s last two games would be offensive defenseman John Carlson. This has been a strong season for him with nine goals and 51 points across 80 contests, and looked solid recently, supplying four goals and 13 points over his past 15 appearances.

Detroit Red Wings – MON VS MTL, TUE @ MTL 

The Red Wings suffered critical losses to Washington and Pittsburgh, but Detroit still has an opportunity to make the playoffs after earning a 5-4 overtime victory over Toronto on Saturday. Detroit is at 87 points (39-32-9), which puts the Red Wings in a tie with Washington for the second wild-card spot, though the Capitals control the tiebreaker, so Detroit would need to finish one point ahead of them to make the postseason. The Red Wings are narrowly ahead of Philadelphia, which has 87 points but has played in one more game than Detroit, and the Penguins, who have 86 points in 80 contests (37-31-12).

The Red Wings will finish the campaign with a home-and-away back-to-back against Montreal on Monday and Tuesday. The upside is the Canadiens are wrapping up a difficult season in which they’ve gone 30-36-14, so Detroit has a good chance of winning both contests. The downside is the Red Wings’ fate itself isn’t entirely in their hands -- Detroit can still miss the playoffs even if it wins both contests. Additionally, because Washington and Philadelphia will play each other and both teams would control the tiebreaker over Detroit, the Red Wings need to claim at least three out of four points over their final two games to have a mathematical chance of reaching the postseason.

Lucas Raymond is doing everything in his power to thrust the Red Wings into the postseason. The 22-year-old has contributed four goals and eight points over his active four-game scoring streak. His linemate Dylan Larkin has been right there with him, providing five goals and 10 points over his last seven outings. Look for that duo to continue to shine when Detroit faces Montreal.

Detroit’s bigger question is in goal. James Reimer started Saturday for the first time since March 28. The Red Wings got the win, but it was a mixed bag for the netminder, who stopped 32 of 36 shots. Meanwhile, Alex Lyon allowed six goals on 27 shots in a 6-5 overtime loss to the Penguins on Thursday and has been inconsistent recently while posting a 2-2-2 record, 2.83 GAA and .915 save percentage over his last six outings.

Ville Husso (lower body) suffered a setback while on an AHL conditioning stint, so he probably won’t be an option for the remainder of the campaign. That leaves Reimer and Lyon to split the final two starts. On the plus side, Montreal ranks 27th offensively with 2.80 goals per game, so the back-to-back set will be a favorable series for the Red Wings goaltenders.

Philadelphia Flyers – TUE VS WAS

The Flyers were primed to make the playoffs before their 0-5-2 run from March 24-April 9. Philadelphia has rebounded by winning its last two games, though, leaving them with a 38-32-11 record. Philadelphia’s 87 points are tied with Washington and Detroit for the second wild-card seed, but the Flyers have played one more contest than either of them. The Flyers have also played one more game than Pittsburgh, which is trailing the main group by a point with a 37-31-12 record.

The Flyers’ final tilt is against Washington on Tuesday. They need to win against the Capitals to have a chance to make the playoffs, but even with a victory in that contest, Philadelphia will still miss the postseason if Detroit gets at least three points over its final two games or Pittsburgh wins its last two contests. Additionally, if Washington wins against Boston on Monday and then pushes the Flyers to overtime, then the Capitals would still finish ahead in the standings even if Philadelphia wins the outing.

Samuel Ersson is perhaps the biggest X-Factor going into Philadelphia’s final contest. He had a terrible stretch from March 14-April 9, posting a 2-5-2 record, 4.51 GAA and .829 save percentage in 10 outings, but he’s rebounded by stopping 44 of 45 shots over the Flyers’ last two outings. The Capitals aren’t a great team offensively, ranking 28th with 2.65 goals per game, so it’s plausible that Ersson will be able to extend his hot streak.

The Flyers will also be looking for Travis Konecny to continue his recent success. The 27-year-old has two goals and an assist over his past two outings and has set career highs this season with 33 goals and 68 points across 75 appearances. Noah Cates has done well too, collecting three goals and five points over his last six contests. He still has just 18 points in 58 appearances, which is down from 38 points in 2022-23, but at least the 25-year-old seems to be dialed in when it matters most.

Pittsburgh Penguins – MON VS NSH, WED @ NYI

The Penguins seemed destined to miss the playoffs when they dealt Jake Guentzel to Carolina on March 7, but Pittsburgh forced itself back into the postseason conversation with a 7-0-2 stretch from March 26-April 11. However, the Penguins suffered a setback Saturday with a 6-4 loss to the Bruins.

Pittsburgh is now 37-31-12, putting the Penguins one point behind Washington, Detroit and Philadelphia in the battle for the second wild-card position. The Penguins will host Nashville on Monday and finish the campaign with a road contest against the Islanders on Wednesday. With Philadelphia and Washington set to play Tuesday, the Penguins need at least three of four points over their final two contests to have a mathematical shot, and even then, they’d need help from the tiebreaker system. Realistically, Pittsburgh will likely need to win both of its last two games to get into the postseason.

Sidney Crosby is sure to do his best to push the Penguins the rest of the way. He’s been a huge factor in their surge, supplying eight goals and 21 points over his past 11 outings. Crosby is up to 41 goals and 90 points in 80 appearances, which is extremely impressive production for a player who is 36 years old. Evgeni Malkin, who is 37, hasn’t been quite as effective this campaign with 25 goals and 64 points through 80 games, but he’s also gotten hot down the stretch with seven goals and 12 points over his past nine outings, so look for him to also show up on the scoresheet over the Penguins’ last two games.

The question is who will start in net. The Penguins have used Alex Nedeljkovic in each of their last 12 games, but he’s posted a 4.21 GAA and an .854 save percentage over his past four outings. To be fair, Tristan Jarry didn’t look good when he stepped into Saturday’s 6-4 loss to Boston in relief of Nedeljkovic -- Jarry stopped 12 of 14 shots in 26:27 of ice time -- but it might be that Nedeljkovic is running on fumes at this point, so maybe Jarry is still the better option, at least for Pittsburgh’s next contest Monday.

Dallas Stars – WED VS STL

The Stars have secured home-ice advantage through the Western Conference Championship, but Dallas can still go one further by claiming the Presidents’ Trophy. Dallas has 11 points (51-21-9), putting the Stars one point behind the Rangers (54-23-4). Carolina and Boston are tied at 109 points over 80 contests, so either team has an outside chance of winning the Presidents’ Trophy by winning each of its last two games.

Dallas’ final contest will be a home match versus St. Louis on Wednesday. Note that the Rangers control the tiebreaker over Dallas in the Presidents’ Trophy battle, so Dallas only has a chance to claim the title if it earns a victory over the Blues.

Even though the Stars still have something to play for, it wouldn’t be shocking if they rest some players Wednesday. For example, backup Scott Wedgewood might get the nod, both to keep him fresh in case he’s needed during the playoffs and to give Jake Oettinger a breather after starting in four straight and seven of Dallas’ past eight. The Blues rank 24th offensively with 2.86 goals per game, so Wednesday’s tilt would be a favorable matchup for Wedgewood.

Tyler Seguin, who didn’t play April 6 because of workload management related to his lower-body injury, might also get the game off. It wouldn’t be shocking if others were rested too, but I don’t think Ryan Suter and Joe Pavelski will be among those who get the game off. It might seem logical to give the two 39-years-olds a breather before the playoffs, but Suter and Pavelski have active iron man streaks of 452 and 313 games, respectively. Perhaps they’ll get less ice time than usual, though. We also might see Dallas give significant minutes in its finale to Logan Stankoven, who has six goals and 14 points in 23 contests, so don’t be surprised if the 21-year-old rookie has a productive game.

New York Rangers – MON @ OTT

With a 54-23-4 record, the Rangers will secure the Presidents’ Trophy with a victory against Ottawa on Monday. If New York loses the contest, the Rangers will still claim the title if Dallas loses its season finale, Boston is held to three of four points over its last two outings and Carolina is limited to two of four points over its final two games. The reason why the Bruins would need to do better than Carolina, even though both squads have 109 points through 80 contests, is because Boston is in a worse position when it comes to the tiebreaker.

Like Dallas, New York might rest players despite its final game having some relevance. Jonathan Quick will probably get the nod against the Senators. Quick has done well this campaign with an 18-6-2 record, but he has struggled recently, allowing 12 goals on 92 shots over his past three starts. Meanwhile, Ottawa has won eight of its last 12 contests, so while the Senators won’t be making the playoffs, they might still give Quick some trouble.

Outside of starting Quick, some of the Rangers’ top players, such as Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox might be scratched. Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin have participated in 165 and 163 consecutive games, respectively, so both of them will probably be in the lineup. Panarin is also two goals away from hitting 50 for the first time in his career, so keep an eye out for that. Chris Kreider will also likely be in the lineup. He needs just one more goal to reach 40 and this would be his first 82-game campaign if he dresses.

Arizona Coyotes – WED VS EDM

I’m throwing the Coyotes in here even though they long since have been mathematically eliminated. Arizona did have a 23-19-3 record through Jan. 22, but a horrific 0-12-2 run from Jan. 24-Feb. 29 effectively ended any hope the Coyotes had of making the playoffs. Still, there is a grim reason to note them: When Arizona hosts Edmonton on Wednesday, it could very well be the franchise’s last game before moving to Salt Lake City (the move isn’t official as of the time of writing but seems all but certain).

To some extent, the Coyotes’ probable move felt inevitable. Since the then Phoenix Coyotes declared bankruptcy in May 2009, it’s been one saga after another with the team and never since that date, have they looked truly secure in their home in Arizona. The fact that the Coyotes have been playing in a college arena since 2022 has made the situation look particularly untenable unless a long-term solution was secured. Even still, this is a sad ending for the dedicated fanbase in Arizona. It might not be the end -- even now there’s talk that the NHL might put an expansion team in Arizona after the Coyotes move if Alex Meruelo, who will sell the Coyotes, can secure a new arena deal -- but it is the end of a chapter.

With that in mind, Wednesday’s otherwise meaningless game has taken on a new meaning. Barring one more twist in this saga that prevents the anticipated move from happening, the contest will stand as a chance for the players to say goodbye to a fanbase that has been with them through all the turmoil. I would expect the Coyotes to play with a lot of heart under the circumstances. In particular, I’m interested to see how Clayton Keller, who was drafted by Arizona in 2016 and now serves as the squad’s top forward, does. He has been held off the scoresheet for his past three games, but Keller has still contributed 33 goals and 73 points in 76 outings overall, and I think the odds are high he will make his presence felt in the finale.

Another player to watch will be Josh Doan. He’s the son of Shane Doan, who was the captain of the franchise from 2003-17 and remains the franchise’s career leader in games (1,540), goals (402), assists (570) and points (972), among other categories. The younger Doan has given Coyotes fans a taste of the future recently, scoring four goals and eight points over nine games. Given his deep family connection to this franchise, this might be an especially emotional goodbye for him. It is also worth noting the grim symmetry here. Like Josh, Shane Doan saw his franchise move, in his case from Winnipeg to Phoenix, after appearing in just one season.

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NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Raymond, Rust, Schmaltz, Foligno, Kurashev, Neighbours, Ekholm and much more https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-raymond-rust-schmaltz-foligno-kurashev-neighbours-ekholm/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-raymond-rust-schmaltz-foligno-kurashev-neighbours-ekholm/#respond Fri, 22 Mar 2024 20:45:05 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=185794 Read More... from NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Raymond, Rust, Schmaltz, Foligno, Kurashev, Neighbours, Ekholm and much more

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Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Lucas Raymond continues to get the job done in Detroit, Bryan Rust remains productive in Pittsburgh, Nick Schmaltz is heating up in Arizona, Connor Bedard’s wingers are reaping the rewards since the star rookie returned to the lineup, and much, much more!

#1 While it has been a bumpy road lately for the Detroit Red Wings as they cling to a playoff spot, they are getting everything they could have wanted out of winger Lucas Raymond, who has hit a career high with 24 goals and 60 points. The third year NHLer has nine points (7 G, 2 A) during a six-game point streak. Even better for Raymond is that Dylan Larkin returned to the Red Wings lineup Thursday, after missing nearly three weeks, and that makes Detroit’s top line even more dangerous.

#2 When the Pittsburgh Penguins decided to keep veteran winger Bryan Rust after the trade deadline, it didn’t make the most sense to hang on to a 31-year-old winger for a team that needs to rebuild on the fly. At the same time, he remains a very productive player and if the Penguins are trying to be competitive, Rust helps to meet that goal. He missed a couple of weeks with an injury, but over the past month, Rust has played eight games, recording nine points (6 G, 3 A) with 30 shots on goal.

#3 Coyotes winger Nick Schmaltz has not been quite as productive as he was in the past two seasons in Arizona, but he has picked up the pace. In his past 13 games, Schmaltz has tallied 17 points (5 G, 12 A) with 29 shots on goal. In the past three seasons, among players that have played at least 100 games, Schmaltz ranks 69th with 0.86 points per game, a higher rate than Bo Horvat, Travis Konecny, and Matt Boldy (among many others). Guys can get overlooked playing in Arizona, but Schmaltz continues to produce at a high level, skating on the top line with Clayton Keller and Nick Bjugstad, while also getting first unit power play time.

#4 Connor Bedard’s return to the Chicago Blackhawks lineup has helped to elevate the production of his wingers. No, really, it has. On the right side, Philipp Kurashev has contributed 16 points (6 G, 10 A) with 28 shots on goal in 17 games since Bedard returned to action after missing time with a broken jaw. Kurashev has also been playing more than 20 minutes per game. On the left flank, 36-year-old vet Nick Foligno has not played quite as much, but still has 13 points (5 G, 8 A) with 33 shots on goal in those 17 games. For his part, Bedard has 21 points (6 G, 15 A) with 53 shots on goal in 17 games since returning to action.

#5 In St. Louis, Pavel Buchnevich has gone 11 games without a goal, yet is still tied for the Blues’ goal-scoring lead, with 24. He is tied with Jake Neighbours, who had a pair of goals against Ottawa on Thursday to give him six points (4 G, 2 A) during a five-game point streak. Neighbours has been averaging more than 17 minutes per game since mid-February and has recorded 13 of his 34 points this season on the power play.

#6 He is known more for his steady defensive play, but don’t sleep on the offensive contributions provided by Oilers defenceman Mattias Ekholm. With two goals and an assist in Thursday’s 8-3 drubbing of the Buffalo Sabres, Ekholm has lifted his totals to an impressive level. In his past 16 games, the veteran blueliner has 14 points (3 G, 11 A) with 36 shots on goal. It does not hurt to have proximity to Connor McDavid, who has recorded a point on eight of those 14 points picked up by Ekholm, who now has a career-high 35 points (7 G, 28 A) in 65 games.

#7 Avalanche defenceman Sean Walker scored a pair of goals against Edmonton last Saturday and while that kind of production is atypical, it’s worth noting what he adds to the third pairing in Colorado. In his first five games with the Avs, Walker has three points (2 G, 1 A) but he also has 15 shots on goal, seven blocked shots, and eight hits. He is filling those peripheral categories that can make him useful for fantasy hockey managers, even without generating a ton of points.

#8 This season had been an unmitigated disaster for Evgeny Kuznetsov, who had 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in 43 games for Washington, a far cry from the 78 points he scored in 2021-2022, or even the 55 points he recorded last season. He has found new life in Carolina, it appears, as he has five points (2 G, 3 A) with 11 shots on goal in his past five games. He has excellent wingers, Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas, so Kuznetsov is being given every opportunity to succeed with a strong Carolina squad.

#9 In the wake of Kuznetsov’s departure, Dylan Strome is now the experienced playmaking centre on the Capitals roster. Strome had picked up his production even before Kuznetsov was traded. Going back to mid-February, Strome has 19 points (3 G, 16 A) with 26 shots on goal in his past 16 games. He could stand to shoot the puck a little more but that’s nitpicky for a player producing like that over a span of more than a month.

#10 Staying in Washington, the Capitals are making an unlikely push for the postseason, despite a miserable goal differential. Part of the reason that they even have a prayer of getting to the playoffs is the play of goaltender Charlie Lindgren, the 30-year-old netminder who has a .911 save percentage in a career high 37 games. Last season was the first time in Lindgren’s career that he had appeared in more than 15 games in an NHL season. He was shelled by the Maple Leafs his week, allowing seven goals on 29 shots, but Lindgren had gone into that game riding high, with a .956 save percentage in his previous six starts.

#11 With Dan Vladar opting for season-ending hip surgery, Calgary Flames prospect Dustin Wolf should see some more consistent action late in the season. The 22-year-old goalie has played 140 games in the American Hockey League, posting a .926 save percentage, so there is nothing more for him to prove at that level. With a .902 save percentage in 11 career NHL games, there is still room for the young netminder to show that he can excel at the highest level.

#12 Although his ice time is down, Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Dmitry Orlov has picked up seven points (2 G, 5 A) with 12 shots on goal in his past five games. He had zero goals and one assist in the 17 games before this recent offensive explosion, He is playing just over 17 minutes per game, his lowest average time on ice since 2015-2016, and down more than five minutes from how much he played in Washington and Boston last season.

#13 While this has obviously been a disappointing season overall for the San Jose Sharks, there are some silver linings to be found. One is that centre Mikael Granlund has been resilient throughout. In his past dozen games, Granlund has delivered 13 points (3 G, 10 A) with 21 shots on goal. He is centering what passes for the Sharks’ top line with wingers Fabian Zetterlund and Klim Kostin while also getting first unit power play time, practically by default.

#14 Injuries have limited Kings winger Viktor Arvidsson to just five games this season, one of which he played just 17 seconds, but he is productive when he plays. Arvidsson has contributed four points (1 G, 3 A) and 17 shots on goal in those five games, which is solid production. When you consider that it’s four games plus less than half of one shift, it shows a player who is significantly better than standard late-season waiver wire fodder for fantasy managers.

#15 As the Toronto Maple Leafs try to make do without Mitch Marner, while he recovers from a high ankle sprain, Max Domi is getting a look on the right side Auston Matthews. Domi had four assists against Washington and has put up 12 points (3 G, 9 A) with 33 shots on goal in his past 13 games. This is his most productive stretch of the season and it’s no surprise. Domi is still a strong puck distributor and if you’re distributing the puck to the guy with 57 goals, there is a chance that good things will happen.

#16 It can be tough to manage expectations when you are drafted first overall, especially if you are not a talent on the level of Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews. Through his first three seasons in the league, Alexis Lafreniere took a lot of heat for his lack of production even though his even-strength production was not bad at all, but in his fourth season, he is starting to come into his own. Some of it is due to playing with Artemi Panarin, the Rangers’ superb playmaking winger, but Lafreniere has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 44 shots on goal in his past 15 games. That has lifted him to career highs of 20 goals and 44 points. That is a strong season from a 22-year-old winger who does not contribute a lot on the power play.

#17 While the greatest consternation in Philadelphia seems focused on head coach John Tortorella putting team captain Sean Couturier in the press box, it has overshadowed the strong play of Morgan Frost, the 24-year-old centre who has delivered seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 11 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. Frost can run afoul of Torts, too, so fantasy managers can never get too comfortable with a player’s place in the Flyers lineup but in this moment, Frost has a good thing going on the top line with Owen Tippett and Travis Konecny on his wings.

#18 The vast majority of players that get included in 20 Fantasy Points are players that are available in at least half of fantasy hockey leagues. In this case, Jake Guentzel is obviously not going to be available, but it’s worth pointing out that he is capable of scoring even without Sidney Crosby as his centre. Despite seeing his ice time drop by three minutes per game compared to what he was playing in Pittsburgh, Guentzel produced eight points (2 G, 6 A) with 18 shots on goal in his first six games for Carolina. He is working on Carolina’s top line with Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis as well as getting first unit power play time, so Guentzel has been put in a position to succeed, even with less ice time.

#19 With Tom Wilson facing a suspension for high sticking Toronto Maple Leafs forward Noah Gregor, the Washington Capitals will need to look for someone to fill that looming void on the right wing. Journeyman Michael Sgarbossa is already skating with Alex Ovechkin and Connor McMichael, so maybe T.J. Oshie or Aliaksei Protas could return from injury to make up for Wilson’s absence. It’s too bad, because Wilson had been on a pretty good run, with eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 19 shots on goal in his past nine games.

#20 In deep or dynasty leagues, it might be worth looking at Calgary Flames defenceman Daniil Miromanov, a 26-year-old right shot defender who was acquired as part of the Noah Hanifin trade before the deadline. The 6-foot-4 blueliner was a fringe player for Vegas, appearing in 29 games over the past three seasons, but also had 68 points (21 G, 47 A) in 89 AHL games since 2021-2022. The Flames are giving him a look on their top power play unit, and he is playing nearly 21 minutes per game. In six games with Calgary, Miromanov has scored a couple of goals and registered 17 shots on goal.

 

 

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NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (March 18th to 24th) – Detroit in late season collapse, need to turn it around fast – Favourable schedules and players to target https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-dadoun-fantasy-week-march-18th-24th-detroit-late-season-collapse-turn-fast-favourable-schedules-players-target/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-dadoun-fantasy-week-march-18th-24th-detroit-late-season-collapse-turn-fast-favourable-schedules-players-target/#respond Sat, 16 Mar 2024 17:18:48 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=185658 Read More... from NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (March 18th to 24th) – Detroit in late season collapse, need to turn it around fast – Favourable schedules and players to target

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LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 04: Detroit Red Wings right wing Patrick Kane (88) skates with the puck during an NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on January 4, 2024 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)

For much of the season, it looked like Detroit was going to make the playoffs. As recently as Feb. 27, the Red Wings were 33-20-6 with an eight-point cushion in the fight for a wild-card spot. After dropping seven straight games, though, Detroit finds itself tied with the Islanders for the second wild-card seed, and the Red Wings’ situation is even worse because they’ve played one game more than New York. Meanwhile, Washington is just one point behind the Islanders and Red Wings, putting further pressure on Detroit.

Goaltending has played a big part in Detroit’s collapse. Alex Lyon was having a strong season, posting a 17-8-2 record, 2.68 GAA and .916 save percentage across 27 contests through Feb. 24. However, Lyon has allowed at least three goals in each of his last seven appearances, resulting in an ugly .856 save percentage in that span. However, Ville Husso (lower body) is still unavailable, and James Reimer has a 6-7-2 record, 3.09 GAA and .903 save percentage in 19 contests this campaign, so the Red Wings don’t have a good alternative to pivot to during Lyon’s struggles.

To be fair, it’s not just Lyon. Detroit has managed just 1.71 goals per game during its losing streak. Patrick Kane and Lucas Raymond have each managed just three points over that seven-game span. Alex DeBrincat has no goals and one assist in the same stretch. Those are key forwards for Detroit, so for them all to go cold at the same time is disastrous.

The Red Wings could still rebound and make the postseason, but they need to do it soon. Otherwise, this season will go down as one of the most painful late season collapses for a team in recent memory.

Carolina Hurricanes – TUE @ NYI, THU VS PHI, FRI @ WAS (BTB), SUN VS TOR

The Hurricanes’ playoff spot is all but guaranteed, but Carolina is still chasing the Rangers in the battle for the Metropolitan Division title. They’ll continue that pursuit next week starting with a road game against the Islanders on Tuesday. After that, Carolina will host the Flyers on Thursday, play in Washington on Friday and conclude with a home contest versus the Maple Leafs on Sunday.

The Hurricanes are pretty healthy right now and even have Frederik Andersen back after missing roughly four months due to a blood clotting issue. He’s been fantastic since returning, posting a 3-0-0 record, 1.01 GAA and .955 save percentage across three starts. Carolina has been rotating between him and Pyotr Kochetkov, who has saved 46 of 49 shots (.939 save percentage) over his last two contests, bringing him to 17-12-3 with a 2.35 GAA and a .911 save percentage through 34 appearances this season.

Andersen and Kochetkov are likely to split the workload for the remainder of the season, which doesn’t leave much of a role for Spencer Martin. It wouldn’t be surprising if Martin accepts a brief AHL conditioning stint in a week or two for the sake of staying fresh ahead of the playoffs. Although he’s certainly far from Carolina’s first choice going forward, it’s still helpful to have him as a fallback plan should the Hurricanes run into injury troubles.

Jake Guentzel (upper body) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (personal) have also returned and made their Hurricanes debuts after being acquired from Pittsburgh and Washington, respectively. The duo appears set to play together on the second line, providing the Hurricanes with scoring threats outside of the Andrei Svechnikov-Sebastian Aho-Teuvo Teravainen trio.

Kuznetsov has just seven goals and 18 points in 47 contests this season, but there’s potential here for him to mesh nicely with Guentzel, especially as the two settle into their new roles. If Kuznetsov is available in your fantasy league, he’s not a bad forward to take a chance on.

Colorado Avalanche – TUE @ STL, FRI VS CBJ, SUN VS PIT

The battle for the Central Division title could come down to the wire with Colorado, Dallas and Winnipeg all legitimate contenders for the top spot. The Avalanche can make things easier for themselves in that race by sweeping their relatively light competition next week. They’ll play in St. Louis on Tuesday before hosting the Blue Jackets on Friday and the Penguins on Sunday. None of those adversaries are in a playoff position, though St. Louis and Pittsburgh still have outside shots of squeaking into a wild-card slot.

There has been news recently when it comes to Gabriel Landeskog’s recovery from cartilage transplant surgery on his right knee. As Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports, the 31-year-old might return during the 2024 playoffs, but it’s far from guaranteed. Keep in mind that he’ll be just 10 months into his 12-16 month timetable come May and while the Avalanche aren’t ruling anything out, they also don’t want to rush him back and risk making things worse.

He will surely be on the back of fantasy managers’ minds going into playoff league drafts. When healthy, Landeskog is a top-tier forward and the Avalanche are legitimate Cup contenders, so under normal circumstances, he’d be highly sought after. You should heavily temper your expectations, though. At most, you could take him toward the end of the draft, and even then, only if you’re comfortable with the very real possibility that he ends up not contributing anything.

In the meantime, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen are continuing to dominate with 14 and 12 points, respectively, over the Avalanche’s last five games alone. MacKinnon is up to 42 goals and 115 points through 67 games as he pursues both the Art Ross and Hart Trophies.

Casey Mittelstadt has settled into a second-line role and has provided a goal and an assist in three games since being acquired by Buffalo. Obviously, he’s not playing with MacKinnon and Rantanen at even strength, but Mittelstadt doesn’t seem to be with the superstar duo on the power play either, instead going out with the second unit. That meaningfully hinders Mittelstadt’s value going forward.

Dallas Stars – WED VS ARI, FRI VS PIT, SUN @ ARI

As noted above, Dallas is in the battle for the Central Division title. Like the Avalanche, Dallas’ upcoming competition is fairly easy. Dallas will start with home games against the Coyotes and the Penguins on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, before traveling to Arizona for a contest Sunday.

Unlike Colorado, which made a big splash in the Mittelstadt for Bowen Byram trade, Dallas had a relatively quiet trade deadline, though the Stars were able to get some business done before it, acquiring defenseman Chris Tanev from Calgary on Feb. 28. Dallas is also looking to get some reinforcements back soon in Tyler Seguin (lower body) and Evgenii Dadonov (lower body), both of which might return next week.

When Seguin returns, Sam Steel will likely find himself moving out of a top-nine role, but what’s harder to gauge is where Dadonov fits in. After scoring 24 goals and 57 points in 47 AHL contests, Logan Stankoven made his NHL debut Feb. 24 and has gone on to record five goals and eight points in 10 outings. If the 21-year-old can continue to produce, then removing him from his third-line spot would seem counterproductive. However, there is no other obvious candidate outside of Steel (who would get bumped for Seguin’s return) to remove from the top nine, so when everyone is healthy, Dadonov might find himself on the fourth unit.

A fourth line of Dadonov, Steel and Radek Faksa is a level of luxury most teams could only dream of, but that trio likely won’t get enough playing time to have any fantasy value. It does put pressure on Stankoven, though -- if he has a prolonged cold stretch, he could find his minutes drop dramatically given the intense competition in Dallas.

Edmonton Oilers – TUE VS MTL, THU VS BUF, SAT @ TOR, SUN @ OTT (BTB)

Edmonton has had some incredible highs and lows this campaign, but when all is done, it now looks like the Oilers will finish with the second seed in the Pacific Division. However, that’s not guaranteed, so Edmonton needs to continue to get results in the upcoming week. Fortunately for the Oilers, their upcoming competition isn’t the strongest. They’ll host Montreal on Tuesday and Buffalo on Thursday before hitting the road to play in Toronto on Saturday and Ottawa on Sunday. The Maple Leafs are set to make the playoffs, but their other three adversaries have an eye toward the draft lottery.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are unsurprisingly continuing to headline the Oilers’ offense. McDavid has an incredible 25 points (four goals) in his past 13 games while Draisaitl has four tallies and 13 points in his last seven appearances.

Edmonton did try to diversify its offense with the addition of Adam Henrique, but the former Ducks forward has just one assist in four contests with the Oilers. He’s serving primarily on the third line and second power-play unit, so he’s not sharing the ice with Edmonton’s superstars. Unless that changes, Henrique’s fantasy value with the Oilers is likely to be somewhat limited.

This might be a good week for goaltender Calvin Pickard, though. The backup netminder has been rotating with starter Stuart Skinner recently and the results have been positive with Pickard saving 93 of 97 shots (.959 save percentage) over his last three starts. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Oilers continue to give Pickard a decent share of the workload in the short term. It’ll help keep Skinner fresh for the playoffs, and Pickard has earned the increased responsibilities with his 9-4-0 record, 2.27 GAA and .919 save percentage across 14 outings in 2023-24.

New Jersey Devils – TUE VS PIT, THU VS WPG, SAT VS OTT, SUN @ NYI (BTB)

The Devils’ playoff hopes aren’t completely gone, but they’re running out of time to close the gap. New Jersey will spend most of the upcoming week at home, playing against the Penguins on Tuesday, the Jets on Thursday and the Senators on Saturday. They’ll finish the week with a road contest against the Islanders.

Timo Meier has done the most lately to keep New Jersey’s postseason dream alive. Although his 19 goals and 36 points through 53 games this season represent a substantial decline from his 40 tallies and 66 points in 78 contests in 2022-23, he’s excelled recently. Meier’s contributed nine goals and 14 points over his past 10 appearances and has found the back of the net in six of his last seven outings.

Of course, the Devils’ main problem this campaign has been defensive, not its scoring. To that end, New Jersey did add goaltenders Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen at the deadline. Kahkonen made his Devils debut Monday, saving 23 of 25 shots against a tough opponent in the Rangers, though New Jersey didn’t provide him with enough support and lost 3-1 anyway. Allen then made his first Devils start Thursday, turning aside 35 of 37 shots en route to a 6-2 victory over Dallas.

That duo is likely to split the workload the rest of the way. It’s worth warning, though, that to say the Devils had poor goaltending would be to tell only half the tale. The defense in front of those netminders hasn’t done its job either. New Jersey has an xGA/60 of 3.22, which is tied for 23rd in the league, so don’t expect Allen or Kahkonen to put up great numbers in the long run.

Tampa Bay Lightning – TUE @ VGK, THU @ SJS, SAT @ LAK, SUN @ ANA (BTB)

Tampa Bay is unlikely to climb into the top three of the Atlantic Division race, but the Lightning are in a strong position to make the playoffs in a wild-card spot. They’ll continue that fight next week while visiting Vegas on Tuesday, San Jose on Thursday, Los Angeles on Saturday and Anaheim on Sunday. The Kings and the Golden Knights are tough opponents, but the Sharks and the Ducks sit in the league’s basement.

Nikita Kucherov has continued his season-long battle with Nathan MacKinnon for the Art Ross and Hart Trophies. Kucherov is behind the Avalanche star in that race, but just barely with 39 goals and 112 points to MacKinnon’s 42 markers and 115 points. Kucherov is riding a nine-game scoring streak in which he’s supplied three goals and 18 points, so he certainly hasn’t let up.

While MacKinnon has Mikko Rantanen as his complementary forward in the battle, Kucherov has Brayden Point. The 28-year-old Lightning forward was especially effective Thursday, providing a hat trick and six points, bringing Point up to 36 tallies and 73 points in 66 appearances in 2023-24.

Victor Hedman has shined recently too with two goals and six points over his last three games. He’s up to 12 goals and 66 points in 64 contests, which is good for third in the defensemen scoring race behind Cale Makar (73 points) and Quinn Hughes (76).

Of course, those are all headline players with Tampa Bay. One contributor who doesn’t get that level of attention is Anthony Duclair. The Lightning acquired him from San Jose on March 7 and the 28-year-old has gotten off to a good start, providing two goals and three points in two contests with the Lightning. That brings him up to 18 goals and 30 points in 58 appearances this year. Tampa Bay has deployed him at times with Steven Stamkos as well as the Point-Kucherov duo, so Duclair could be in line for a strong finish to the campaign.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE @ PHI, WED @ WAS, SAT VS EDM, SUN @ CAR

Toronto is pretty much set at this point. They do have an outside shot of competing for the first or second seeds in the Atlantic Division but barring a complete collapse or a stunning hot streak, Toronto will almost certainly finish the campaign in the division’s third position. Still, the Leafs will look to stay sharp next week. They’ll play in Philadelphia on Tuesday and Washington on Wednesday before hosting the Oilers on Saturday. Toronto will then conclude the week with a road game versus the Hurricanes on Sunday.

The big question mark regarding the Maple Leafs is the health of Mitchell Marner. He’s dealing with a high-ankle sprain, which is concerning, but Toronto considers it to be a mild variant. Still, he’s set to miss his third straight game Saturday. Given Toronto doesn’t have a lot left to fight for until the playoffs, there isn’t any compelling reason to have him play at anything under 100 percent, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Toronto exercises an abundance of caution when determining his availability going forward.

As long as Marner is unavailable, who plays alongside Auston Matthews remains somewhat in flux. Calle Jarnkrok and Tyler Bertuzzi were his linemates initially Thursday, but Jarnkrok suffered a hand injury and is considered week-to-week. That creates a potential opening for Pontus Holmberg to play on the first unit, which would give him some short-term fantasy value.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on how Nick Robertson is used. He’s been limited to eight goals and 19 points in 41 contests this season but has averaged just 11:22 of ice time and hasn’t even dressed for Toronto since Feb. 29. However, Robertson does have some offensive upside, and the Leafs’ recent injuries might create a new opportunity for him.

Winnipeg Jets – TUE @ NYR, THU @ NJD, SAT @ NYI, SUN @ WAS (BTB)

As noted above, the Jets are competing with Colorado and Dallas for the top seed in the Central Division. The Jets will continue that pursuit next week while playing on the road against the Rangers on Tuesday, New Jersey on Thursday, the Islanders on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.

Gabriel Vilardi has unfortunately been diagnosed with an enlarged spleen. There’s no timetable for his recovery, and we just have to hope that his recovery will go smoothly for him, and after this, he’ll be able to put it behind him.

When he’s healthy, there’s a fair chance Vilardi will play alongside Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele on the first line. As long as he’s unavailable, though, that spot will likely be occupied by Alex Iafallo, who has done well recently, providing two goals and three points in his past four games, which brings him up to 10 goals and 23 points in 65 contests in 2023-24. Iafallo might be worth taking a chance on while he’s playing on the first unit, but even in that role, you shouldn’t expect too much from him.

In the long run, the Jets will probably get more offensive production out of Tyler Toffoli, who is serving on the second line after being acquired from New Jersey on March 8. He has 26 goals and 44 points in 63 outings this season. Toffoli was held off the scoresheet in his first two games with Winnipeg, but it shouldn’t be too long before he starts to find his way with his new team, especially because he’s seeing time on the first power-play unit.

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NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Sean Monahan moves to Winnipeg, Troy Terry is streaking, Jonathan Quick is earning more playing time, Nazem Kadri is leading the way for Calgary, Dylan Cozens is starting to heat up in Buffalo, and much, much more! https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-sean-monahan-moves-winnipeg-troy-terry-streaking-jonathan-quick-earning-playing-time-nazem-kadri-leading-calgary-dylan-cozens-starting-heat-buffalo-much-more/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-sean-monahan-moves-winnipeg-troy-terry-streaking-jonathan-quick-earning-playing-time-nazem-kadri-leading-calgary-dylan-cozens-starting-heat-buffalo-much-more/#respond Fri, 09 Feb 2024 20:21:44 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=185423 Read More... from NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Sean Monahan moves to Winnipeg, Troy Terry is streaking, Jonathan Quick is earning more playing time, Nazem Kadri is leading the way for Calgary, Dylan Cozens is starting to heat up in Buffalo, and much, much more!

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Troy Terry (61) (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire),

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Sean Monahan moves to Winnipeg, Troy Terry is streaking, Jonathan Quick is earning more playing time, Nazem Kadri is leading the way for Calgary, Dylan Cozens is starting to heat up in Buffalo, and much, much more!

#1 The Winnipeg Jets dipped into the trade market to acquire centre Sean Monahan from the Montreal Canadiens. Monahan, healthy after years of having hip problems, has been enjoying a renaissance. He had put up 11 points (2 G, 9 A) in his last seven games with Montreal and while he has not recorded a point in his first two games with the Jets, Monahan does have six shots on goal and seems like he should be a reasonable option as the No. 2 centre in Winnipeg.

#2 With Monahan departing, Montreal is in dire straits down the middle of the ice behind captain Nick Suzuki. With Christian Dvorak and Kirby Dach out for the season and Alex Newhook still recovering from injury, Montreal has Jake Evans slotted into the second line centre spot, with AHL call-ups Brandon Gignac and Lucas Condotta filling out the bottom half of the centre depth chart. Evans has 14 points (2 G, 12 A) in 50 games, which is not exactly prime offensive production from a player who is already averaging a career high 15:45 of ice time per game.

#3 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry started slowly this season, scoring 13 points in his first 24 games, and that included a four-point game against Arizona on November 1. He has since picked up the pace and goes into Friday’s action riding a six-game point streak during which he has produced 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 19 shots on goal. That’s a small sample, but the shot rate is encouraging. Terry averaged a career high 2.69 shots on goal per game last season and is sitting on 2.51 shots per game this season, so lifting his average up over three per game counts as progress and makes his production more sustainable.

#4 A bizarre goaltending season continues to wreak havoc for fantasy hockey managers. With Igor Shesterkin slumping, to the tune of a .863 save percentage in 10 games since the calendar flipped to 2024, the Rangers are now giving more starts to Jonathan Quick. For all of his career accolades, Quick is now 38 years old and had worse than average results in four of the previous five seasons. This season, he has a .919 save percentage and a 12-4-2 record in 19 appearances. With Shesterkin slumping, Quick is shockingly taking on a bigger role for the Blueshirts.

#5 While the season appears to be headed south for the Calgary Flames as a team, centre Nazem Kadri has picked up his production after a relatively slow start to the campaign. In his past 20 games, Kadri has 21 points (8 G, 13 A) and 67 shots on goal and with Elias Lindholm traded, Kadri becomes even more important as Calgary’s No. 1 centre.

#6 Following a breakthrough 2022-2023 season, Buffalo Sabres centre Dylan Cozens has not been as productive this season. However, with nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 23 shots on goal in his past eight games, Cozens is starting to look more like the rising star that he was a year ago. He is getting first unit power play time right now but has just five power play points this season, so that could be an area to increase potential point production.

#7 The goals are not coming as easily for Washington this season, but centre Dylan Strome remains a viable fantasy hockey option, at least for consideration in deeper leagues. Since December 30, he has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 34 shots on goal in 16 games. With Evgeny Kuznetsov in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, Strome is the most established scoring centre on the Capitals roster by a healthy margin and is naturally centering the top line between Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson.

#8 In his past 20 games, Philadelphia Flyers winger Joel Farabee has put up 21 points (6 G, 15 A) while registering 53 shots on goal. Skating on a line with Morgan Frost and Travis Konecny, in addition getting first unit power play time, is working for Farabee, who ranks 25th in the league with 35 even strength points. Farabee’s even strength production has been outstanding, but if he can become a factor on the power play, he could push towards a point per game scoring pace.

#9 Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Mikhail Sergachev suffered a broken leg in Wednesday’s loss at the New York Rangers, in his first game back after missing 17. Sergachev’s absence does open the door for Darren Raddysh to remain in a more significant role on the Lightning blueline. Raddysh has contributed eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 19 shots on goal in his past 12 games. He has played nearly 21 minutes per game over his past 20 games, the 27-year-old making himself a fixture on the Lightning blueline in his first full NHL season.

#10 While he could stand to put more pucks on net, Detroit Red Wings winger Lucas Raymond has contributed 15 points (3 G, 12 A) in his past 15 games, despite managing a modest 18 shots on goal. He is reaping the rewards of a high on-ice shooting percentage, 11.1 percent, and that is likely unsustainable, though riding with Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin on Detroit’s top line should help to keep Raymond’s percentages at least above average.

#11 With Jack Eichel still out of the lineup for the Vegas Golden Knights, they can be thankful that other centres have stepped up to fill the void. Chandler Stephenson has contributed 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 22 shots on goal in the past 10 games and Nicolas Roy has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in his past nine games. Since January 1, Roy is averaging 4.05 points per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, which is the best rate in the entire league for players that have played at least 100 five-on-five minutes. In Stephenson’s case, this re-emergence has come following a stretch during which he managed just two points (1 G, 1 A) in 12 games.

#12 Seattle Kraken right winger Jordan Eberle has had trouble getting on track this season but is making progress lately. In his past seven games, Eberle has put up nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 14 shots on goal. He is skating on a line with Tomas Tatar and Jared McCann and they have had some success. McCann has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 26 shots on goal in his past 10 games, while Tatar has four points (2 G, 2 A) in his past five games.

#13 In his second full season with the Buffalo Sabres, winger JJ Peterka has been the leading goal scorer for the team, which is a credit to Peterka, who has 18 goals after scoring seven points (5 G, 2 A) with 21 shots on goal in his past six games, but it’s also something of an indictment of more established scorers like Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch, who have not produced to the levels that they have in previous seasons. Peterka is skating on a line with Dylan Cozens and rookie winger Zach Benson, a trio full of potential and a group that should get plenty of ice time for the rest of the season.

#14 There is not a lot to bring excitement to the San Jose Sharks’ season and it is rare to bring forth Sharks players for potential fantasy value. With that disclaimer out of the way, managers in deep leagues should keep tabs on William Eklund, the 21-year-old who was the seventh pick in the 2021 Draft. Eklund has six points (1 G, 5 A) in his past five games and is getting some reps at centre. He is also getting significant ice time, including first unit power play time, playing more than 20 minutes in four of his past seven contests.

#15 It has been a challenging season in Columbus, too. Johnny Gaudreau leads the Blue Jackets with just 32 points in 50 games. Patrik Laine is in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, and star rookie Adam Fantilli is out for two months with a lacerated calf. One bright spot has been the development of Yegor Chinakhov, the 23-year-old winger who was a surprise first-round pick in 2020. Chinakhov has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal in his past seven games and is up to 14 goals on the season. Like Eklund, Chinakhov is more of a concern for those in deep or dynasty leagues.

#16 There are few players that are worthy of fantasy consideration that play as little as Detroit Red Wings right winger Daniel Sprong. He was one of the most efficient players in the league with Seattle last season, scoring 46 points (21 G, 25 A) in 66 games while playing just 11:25 per game. When he signed with Detroit, the expectation was that Sprong would see a bump in ice time but, for the most part that hasn’t materialized. Even so, he has put up 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 38 shots on goal in his past 13 games, while playing just 11:46 per game, since the calendar flipped to 2024.

#17 A defenceman who scored a career-high 20 points as a rookie in 2017-2018, Jan Rutta is suddenly contributing offensively for the San Jose Sharks. Not only does Rutta have six points (3 G, 3 A) in the past six games, but he is averaging 22:45 of ice time per game over that stretch. This is a more significant role for the veteran defender, but it’s also for a terrible team and he does not have a significant role on the power play, so maybe don’t rush to the waiver wire immediately, just consider him as a potential short-term option if injuries hit your blueline.

#18 The Jordan Binnington experience can be a bit of a roller coaster, with ups and downs, thrills, and spills, but when he is on, the St. Louis Blues netminder can be a difference maker. In 10 games since the Christmas break, for example, Binnington has a 6-3-1 record with a .928 save percentage. That will play in any league and makes Binnington a much more appealing fantasy option.

#19 Although it is difficult for any goaltender to put up great numbers in San Jose, Mackenzie Blackwood is doing his level best. In nine games since the Christmas break, the 27-year-old netminder has a 4-3-1 record with a .923 save percentage. It would be only the deepest of leagues that could justify taking a Sharks goaltender, but Blackwood is at least making himself a viable fantasy option and the way that goaltending has fluctuated throughout the league this season, it’s always worth considering one that is on a good run.

#20 Among players to play at least 150 minutes in all situations since January 1, the leaders for individual expected goals per 60 minutes are: Zach Hyman (2.64), Dmitri Voronkov (1.91), T.J. Oshie (1.89), Matthew Tkachuk (1.83), Chris Kreider (1.79), Kyle Palmieri (1.77), Yanni Gourde (1.71), John Tavares (1.64), David Pastrnak (1.62), and Joe Pavelski (1.62). A few things stand out. First, is that Hyman is getting way more chances than anyone else in the league but players like Voronkov, Oshie, Palmieri, and Gourde are all available in quite a few leagues. Fantasy hockey rewards actual goals rather than expected goals, but the process of generating expected goals should have a payoff with real goals at some point, too.

 

 

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NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Veterans Sean Monahan and Adam Henrique are boosting their potential trade value, Logan Couture returns to action, Olen Zellweger gets called up to Anaheim, the goalie carousel continues to turn, and much, much more! https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-veterans-sean-monahan-adam-henrique-boosting-potential-trade-value-logan-couture-returns-action-olen-zellweger-called-anaheim-goalie-carousel-continues-turn-much/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-veterans-sean-monahan-adam-henrique-boosting-potential-trade-value-logan-couture-returns-action-olen-zellweger-called-anaheim-goalie-carousel-continues-turn-much/#respond Fri, 26 Jan 2024 20:46:13 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=185323 Read More... from NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Veterans Sean Monahan and Adam Henrique are boosting their potential trade value, Logan Couture returns to action, Olen Zellweger gets called up to Anaheim, the goalie carousel continues to turn, and much, much more!

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MONTREAL, QC - JANUARY 15: Sean Monahan (91) of the Montreal Canadiens looks on during the second period of the NHL game between the Colorado Avalanche and the Montreal Canadiens on January 15 2024, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC(Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, veterans Sean Monahan and Adam Henrique are boosting their potential trade value, Logan Couture returns to action, Olen Zellweger gets called up to Anaheim, the goalie carousel continues to turn, and much, much more!

#1 After leading Montreal to victory, with two goals and an assist against the New York Islanders on Thursday, Habs centre Sean Monahan has produced 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in his past six games. A pending free agent, Monahan should be an attractive trade candidate if the Canadiens don’t sign him to a new deal before the deadline. Considering that he will be turning 30 early next season, it might make more sense for Montreal to bring in draft picks or prospects in exchange for Monahan, who is only increasing his value with his recent production.

#2 San Jose Sharks centre Logan Couture missed more than half of the season due to injury and has been thrust right back into a primary role with the Sharks. A player who is getting 19 minutes of ice time per game, including first unit power play time, is naturally very appealing for fantasy managers, but maybe pump the brakes a bit on Couture. In his first three games of the season, Couture has managed one assist and two shots on goal, which is understandable, given his layoff, but also does not indicate that urgency is required if you want to claim Couture on the waiver wire.

#3 When the Anaheim Ducks traded defenceman Jamie Drysdale to the Philadelphia Flyers to acquire prospect Cutter Gauthier, part of the reasoning for the Ducks was that they had quality young defencemen in their system. Enter Olen Zellweger, the Ducks’ second round pick in 2021, who had 25 points (8 G, 17 A) in 34 AHL games this season when he was called up by Anaheim. Zellweger is not being rushed into a big role with the Ducks, playing under 14 minutes in each of his first two games, but he is getting first unit power play time and has one assist with the man advantage. Long-term Zellweger could have significant fantasy appeal. Right now, he is a longshot play for those in deeper leagues.

#4 Ducks centre Adam Henrique is another veteran pivot who is on an expiring contract, making him a prime trade candidate. Henrique is heating up, too, contributing 11 points (5 G, 6 A) with 25 shots on goal in his past 10 games. That production is looking good already, but Henrique ought to spend the stretch run playing for a team with more talent than his current team in Anaheim, which should help Henrique maintain a quality level of production.

#5 Philadelphia Flyers right winger Cam Atkinson went more than two months without a goal, managing six assists in a 26-game span, but he has emerged from that lengthy slump. Atkinson has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) with 25 shots on goal in seven games since emerging from that scoring dry spell and once again looks like a viable fantasy performer.

#6 With Carter Hart taking a leave from the Flyers, rookie goaltender Samuel Ersson is going to see a much bigger role in the Philadelphia net. Ersson was lit up in his first three appearances of the season and then went on an 18-game run in which he posted a .930 save percentage. In his past three starts, Ersson has dipped again, recording a .841 save percentage in three straight losses. If he can snap out of it, Ersson has a chance to make a fantasy impact, depending on how long Hart will be absent from the Flyers.

#7 In December, Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov suffered a crisis of confidence following a four-game stretch in which he had a .798 save percentage, allowing 21 goals on 104 shots. He was demoted to the American Hockey League and there was a portion of the Maple Leafs fan base that would have been happy to wipe their hands clean of him. However, with Joseph Woll injured and Martin Jones starting to wear down in the starter’s role, Samsonov has returned to the Maple Leafs lineup and has a .944 save percentage in three starts since rejoining the club. He is coming off a 32-save shutout against Winnipeg on Wednesday, the kind of performance that should alleviate any concerns about confidence for at least a little while.

#8 The Los Angeles Kings made a savvy move in the offseason when they signed goaltender David Rittich to be the No. 3 goalie in the organization. Once Pheonix Copley had his season ended by ACL surgery, the move looked even better. Rittich has appeared in eight games for the Kings and has a 4-1-2 record with a .930 save percentage. It is unlikely that he will maintain that level of play, but as long as he plays this well, Rittich is going to command more starts in the Los Angeles net. Fantasy managers that might be in deep leagues or just desperate for goaltending help might want to give Rittich a longer look.

#9 Veteran Washington Capitals right winger T.J. Oshie managed just one assist in his first 15 games this season. That is a troubling slump from a 37-year-old winger whose body might even feel a few years older than that because of Oshie’s rambunctious style of play throughout his career. However, Oshie has started to emerge from that funk. In his past 10 games, Oshie has put up nine points (7 G, 2 A) with 26 shots on goal. Four of those goals have come via the power play, where Oshie is still getting first unit time with the man advantage for Washington.

#10 St. Louis Blues centre Brayden Schenn endured a 16-game stretch from early December to early January in which he was held without a goal and managed a meagre two assists. In eight games since, Schenn has finally come alive, putting up eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 18 shots on goal. He is getting first unit power play time for the Blues and that has helped him escape that terrible slump.

#11 Returning to the league after a hiatus to sort out some personal issues that led to being released by the Chicago Blackhawks, right winger Corey Perry has signed with the Edmonton Oilers. The 38-year-old winger is a useful depth option who has thrived in a limited role with contenders in previous seasons before seeing an uptick of ice time in Chicago at the start of the season. In Edmonton, Perry is probably going to be in a depth role most of the time, and he has not scored more than half-a-point per game for a season since 2017-2018. That suggests that the real value for Perry when it comes to fantasy, is as something of a sleeper for the playoffs, because Perry has contributed 35 points (17 G, 18 A) in 78 games over the past four postseasons.

#12 Dallas Stars sophomore centre Wyatt Johnston had some trouble late in 2023, going through a 16-game stretch in which he failed to score a goal and added just five assists. The young forward has come out on the other side, however, putting up eight points (3 G, 5 A) with 19 shots on goal in his past eight games and he has moved up to join Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz on Dallas’ top line when they are playing five-on-five hockey.

#13 It may be too late to have an impact on the playoff race, but the Ottawa Senators are playing a more competitive brand of hockey, posting a 3-0-2 record in the past five games. The Sens are finally getting stronger down the middle of the ice. Josh Norris is healthy after missing some time and Shane Pinto has been activated since serving his gambling suspension. Pinto has two points (1 G, 1 A) and seven shots on goal in his first three games and played 19:40 in his third game of the season, Thursday against Boston.

#14 Last week, we focused on Chandler Stephenson with a bigger role down the middle of the ice for the Vegas Golden Knights in the aftermath of injuries to Jack Eichel and William Karlsson. The other Vegas centre who has seen his profile get a major boost is Nicolas Roy, the 26-year-old who has eight points (2 G, 6 A) in his past five games. Roy’s value may only last while Vegas is missing its top two centres, but short-term value is still more fantasy appeal than Roy has typically.

#15 It seems like Philadelphia Flyers centre Morgan Frost is often teetering on the edge of landing in John Tortorella’s doghouse, but Frost appears to have found the antidote, for now. If he is productive, that can keep Torts at bay, and in his past 11 games, Frost has accrued 11 points (2 G, 9 A) with 25 shots on goal. After scoring a career high 46 points (19 G, 27 A) in 81 games last season, Frost is scoring at a higher per-game rate this season, with 22 points (7 G, 15 A) in 38 games, good for 0.58 points per game.

#16 Detroit Red Wings right winger Lucas Raymond has continued to churn out points. He had a pair of assists in Thursday’s 3-0 win against Philadelphia, giving him 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in his past 13 games. He could be even more effective if he would shoot the puck more, but there is not much to complain about when the third year forward is scoring points (0.81 per game) at the highest rate of his career.

#17 Known for his defensive play and an ability to blend into the background in his firset three seasons in the league, Vancouver’s Pius Suter notched a hat trick against St. Louis on Wednesday, giving him 12 goals in 34 games. He has four goals and eight shots on goal in the past two games and is getting a look on the Canucks’ top power play unit. Given that he has never scored more than 36 points in a season, it is fair to wonder how long Suter’s offensive surge could last, but he is now among the players to consider adding in deep leagues.

#18 Boston Bruins centre Trent Frederic has emerged as an offensive contributor over the past month. Since December 31, Frederic has tallied 13 points (7 G, 6 A) with 26 shots on goal in 14 games. That shooting percentage is not going to last over the long haul, but Frederic is proving that he is more than just a banger who will drop the gloves if need be. As the 25-year-old is up to 28 points (14 G, 14 A) in 48 games, he is raising the bar for what might be expected of him for the rest of this season and beyond.

#19 While consistency remains a battle for New Jersey Devils right winger Alexander Holtz, the skilled forward has started 2024 off right, producing eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 24 shots on goal in 11 games since the calendar turned to January. His ice time is a concern, as Holtz played just 10:14 at Carolina on Thursday, but continued production does tend to have a way of bringing more ice time into the equation.

#20 When the Los Angeles Kings acquired Pierre-Luc Dubois from the Winnipeg Jets last summer, it was expected that the 25-year-old pivot would join Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault down the middle of the ice to give the Kings strength at centre. With Dubois putting up just 12 points (6 G, 6 A) with 60 shots on goal in his past 32 games, frustration is starting to set in among coaches and even Kings players.  Dubois has been moved down the depth chart and is centering young wingers Alex Laferriere and Jaret Anderson-Dolan, who will presumably put in maximum effort, even if their results are not necessarily the strongest. Under these circumstances it would be entirely reasonable for fantasy managers to drop Dubois, at least in shallower leagues where it would be easy enough to find a better replacement on the waiver wire.

 

 

 

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CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Oilers missing McDavid – Woll pushing for playing time – McTavish and Sandheim stepping up – Plus much, much more https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-oilers-missing-mcdavid-woll-pushing-playing-time-mctavish-sandheim-stepping-much/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-oilers-missing-mcdavid-woll-pushing-playing-time-mctavish-sandheim-stepping-much/#respond Fri, 27 Oct 2023 15:39:45 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=183166 Read More... from CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Oilers missing McDavid – Woll pushing for playing time – McTavish and Sandheim stepping up – Plus much, much more

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DALLAS, TX - OCTOBER 26: Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Joseph Woll (60) blocks a shot during the game between the Dallas Stars and the Toronto Maple Leafs on October 26, 2023 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the Oilers are reeling and are now missing McDavid. Shane Pinto’s suspension, Joseph Woll pushing for playing time, Mason McTavish ready to make the leap in his second season, Travis Sanheim stepping up for the Flyers and more.

#1 The season could not have started much worse for the Edmonton Oilers, preseason Stanley Cup favourites who have a 1-5-1 record and are missing superstar centre Connor McDavid for 1-2 weeks due to an upper-body injury. McDavid had eight points (2 G, 6 A) in five games before getting hurt and the Oilers have had to juggle lines, moving Ryan Nugent-Hopkins into the second line centre spot while Leon Draisaitl fills in for McDavid as the first line centre. The Oilers have been outscored 10-4 in two losses without McDavid and will hope to get on the right track with the season’s first installment of the Battle of Alberta, the Heritage Classic outdoor game, which goes Sunday in Edmonton.

#2 Ottawa Senators centre Shane Pinto, still without a contract as a restricted free agent, was suspended for 41 games due to activities related to sports betting. That would appear to solidify Ridly Greig’s position as the third-line centre behind Tim Stutzle and Josh Norris. Greig, who is eligible for the Calder Trophy, has five points (1 G, 4 A) with 16 shots on goal in seven games. Another player whose future in Ottawa should be more secure is winger Mathieu Joseph, who had been rumoured to be on the trade block at times – ostensibly in order to clear cap space to sign Pinto – but Joseph has started the season with six points (3 G, 3 A) and 13 shots on goal in seven games.

#3 It has not taken long, but Toronto Maple Leafs rookie Joseph Woll is challenging Ilya Samsonov for time in Toronto’s crease. Woll, the 25-year-old netminder, has a .961 save percentage in four appearances and that will get anyone a longer look in net, but with Samsonov delivering a meagre .831 save percentage, it is an easy choice for the Maple Leafs to give Woll more opportunities. Samsonov played well for Toronto last season, but the unpredictable nature of the position means that, unless a team has a surefire No. 1, the job should be up for grabs so that the goaltender that is playing best can earn more playing time.

#4 Second-year Anaheim Ducks centre Mason McTavish scored in overtime Thursday to cap Anaheim’s surprising late comeback win in Boston, handing the Bruins their first loss of the season. The 20-year-old now has six points (3 G, 3 A) with 16 shots on goal in seven games and with the Ducks playing more competitively than might have been anticipated, it’s all the more reason to expect McTavish to obliterate his rookie season production of 43 points (17 G, 26 A).

#5 While there has been plenty of early season fanfare for Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat in Detroit – and deservedly so as they rank second and third, respectively, in the league scoring race – the third member of Detroit’s top line, Lucas Raymond, should not be overlooked. The third-year winger has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 18 shots on goal in eight games, and if he’s riding shotgun with Larkin and DeBrincat, that is an opportunity for Raymond to continue producing at a high level.

#6 Entering the season, there appeared to be plenty of holes in the Philadelphia Flyers lineup, not the least of which was a defencemen that would be able to contribute offensively. The early answer to that question is apparently Travis Sanheim, who had a career-high 35 points (9 G, 26 A) in 82 games in 2018-2019, but has busted out of the gate to start the season, producing eight points (1 G, 7 A) and 16 shots on goal in seven games. He is quarterbacking Philadelphia’s first power play unit and that should be enough reason to believe that the 27-year-old at least has a shot at the most productive offensive season of his career.

#7 The Colorado Avalanche took a chance on centre Ryan Johansen, acquiring him from the Nashville Predators in the offseason, and the early returns have been positive. Johansen has five points (4 G, 1 A) in seven games, but what is notable is that he also has 17 shots on goal. That rate of 2.43 shots on goal per game would be Johansen’s highest per-game rate since the 2014-2015 season. He has shown little interest in shooting the puck in recent seasons but if the Avalanche can change that approach, then the veteran pivot becomes a lot more interesting because he has the talent to score. Johansen has three seasons in his career with at least 25 goals, though only one since 2014-2015.

#8 Although he does not seem to be an ideal fit as a first line centre for the Minnesota Wild, Ryan Hartman does have seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 18 shots on goal in the first seven games of the season. Hartman had a career-high 65 points (34 G, 31 A) during the 2021-2022 season but that was the only season of his career in which he scored more than 40 points, so expectations for his production tend to be low enough that he could exceed them. The opportunity to play with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello can drag many players into fantasy relevance.

#9 Veteran centre Sean Monahan has been a valuable contributor for the Montreal Canadiens early in the season. After groin surgery ended his 2022-2023 season prematurely, the 29-year-old was facing an uncertain future. He re-signed in Montreal and has been excellent early in the season, producing six points (3 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal in seven games. For a relatively young Canadiens team, having Monahan’s experience and production helps to insulate their emerging players.

#10 When Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy required back surgery, the immediate question was how would the Lightning address this issue so that they did not have to ride with Jonas Johansson as their starting netminder for more than two months. The Lightning have not brought in a proven NHL goaltender, instead giving Johansson the opportunity and he has a .925 save percentage in seven starts. Given his mediocre track record, seven games are not nearly enough time to declare that Johansson is now an elite goaltender, but he offers potential for fantasy managers as what looks like a secure No. 1 goaltender until the Lightning make a move.

#11 Los Angeles Kings left winger Trevor Moore has found a comfortable home on Phillip Danault’s wing and Moore has opened this season with six points, including five goals, in his first six games. Moore has 16 shots on goal and that has been one of his strengths since arriving in Los Angeles – he uses his speed to consistently generate shots – and while he is obviously not going to keep scoring on 31% of his shots, Moore could certainly surpass his career high of 17 goals, set in 2021-2022.

#12 While the Boston Bruins might have had modest expectations for 34-year-old left winger James van Riemsdyk coming into the season, he has contributed five points (3 G, 2 A) with 16 shots on goal in seven games, with three of those points coming with the man advantage. Even if he is not terribly fleet afoot at this stage of his career, JvR has always had excellent hands around the net, and he still makes sense as a net-front presence for Boston.

#13 It appeared that the Edmonton Oilers secured outstanding value when they signed right winger Connor Brown coming off a season in which he was limited to just four games before tearing his ACL. Brown had established his credentials as a winger who could play in all situations before that and had played with Connor McDavid in junior hockey, so this was a great chance for Brown to re-establish his value, but that has not been the case thus far. Through seven games, Brown has failed to record a point and has just eight shots on goal. He has fallen to the third line on the Edmonton depth chart and, according to Cap Friendly, is due a performance bonus of $3,225,000 after he plays in 10 games. Would the Oilers abandon Brown this quickly in order to save the cap space?

#14 Seattle Kraken sophomore centre Matty Beniers is off to a tough start to the campaign. The 2022-2023 Calder Trophy winner, Beniers has yet to score a goal and has three assists and 13 shots on goal in the first eight games of the season. Shot generation has not been a Beniers strength to this point in his NHL career, but he has to be able to produce more. Right now, he has rookie Tye Kartye and veteran Jordan Eberle on his wings, which is not exactly driving the Kraken attack, but Beniers is capable of more and probably counts as a buy-low candidate for fantasy managers.

#15 In the second half of last season, New Jersey Devils winger Dawson Mercer erupted for 20 points (11 G, 9 A) during a 12-game span, on his way to a 27-goal season. He has been out of sorts this season, however, still looking for his first point after six games. Even more troubling is that Mercer has been held without a shot on goal in four straight games. He has been buried in shifts when he has been skating with rookie Alexander Holtz, with the duo managing a 34.5% Corsi in the 28 minutes of five-on-five play that they have been together.

#16 The Arizona Coyotes made several moves to bolster their forward talent in the offseason and one of the results of those acquisitions has been that Lawson Crouse’s role has been decreased. Coming off back-to-back seasons with 20 or more goals, Crouse had fantasy value because of his high hit totals to accompany his goal-scoring numbers. His ice time is down 2:42 per game from last season and Crouse has managed just one assist and eight shots on goal in six games.

#17 The Calgary Flames have staggered out of the starting blocks this season and centre Nazem Kadri is one Flames skater who could produce a lot more than he has to this point in the season. In eight games, Kadri has one assist and 23 shots on goal. Flames head coach Ryan Huska tried to shake things up by moving Kadri to right wing on the top line, with Jonathan Huberdeau and Elias Lindholm, but that has not snapped Kadri from his early-season funk.

#18 Chicago Blackhawks left winger Taylor Hall has landed on the injured list, forcing another change on the wing for rookie centre Connor Bedard. With Tyler Johnson on right wing, the Blackhawks have Nick Foligno stepping into Hall’s spot. With all due respect to Foligno, this is not an ideal situation for Bedard, who could use more offensively gifted linemates If he is going to maximize his production. Through seven games, Bedard has four points (2 G, 2 A) and 22 shots on goal.

#19 Columbus Blue Jackets centre – yes, centre – Patrik Laine suffered an injury when Calgary Flames defenseman Rasmus Andersson unloaded on him with a high hit late in a Flames loss to Columbus. Laine has not returned to action yet, missing three games since the incident. Boone Jenner and Jack Roslovic have joined Johnny Gaudreau on Columbus’ top line in Laine’s absence. Andersson was suspended for four games and MacKenzie Weegar has moved into the quarterback role on Calgary’s first unit power play.

#20 The Buffalo Sabres entered the season with hopes the rookie goaltender Devon Levi would be the one to carry the starter’s load between the pipes. Levi had a mediocre .892 save percentage in the first four games of the season before a nagging lower-body injury sidelined him. That has allowed Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to see some action. As noted earlier, riding the hot hand in net is becoming a way of life for NHL teams and it has helped the Sabres pick up a couple of wins.

 

 

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