[04-May-2026 15:31:54 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Class 'WP_Widget' not found in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_news_feed_widget.php:3 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_news_feed_widget.php on line 3 [04-May-2026 15:31:55 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Class 'WP_Widget' not found in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_sidebar_menu_widget.php:3 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_sidebar_menu_widget.php on line 3 [04-May-2026 15:31:45 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_editorials.php:22 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_editorials.php on line 22 [04-May-2026 15:31:46 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_tabs.php:50 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_tabs.php on line 50 [04-May-2026 15:31:47 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_heading.php:15 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_heading.php on line 15 Luke Kunin – McKeen's Hockey https://www.mckeenshockey.com The Essential Hockey Annual Thu, 20 Mar 2025 19:59:55 +0000 en-US hourly 1 NHL: 20 FANTASY POINTS – TRADE DEADLINE EDITION – Rantanen, Marchand, Nelson, Cozens, Jones, and much more! https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-20-fantasy-points-trade-deadline-edition-rantanen-marchand-nelson-cozens-jones-more/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-20-fantasy-points-trade-deadline-edition-rantanen-marchand-nelson-cozens-jones-more/#respond Sat, 08 Mar 2025 16:14:05 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=192216 Read More... from NHL: 20 FANTASY POINTS – TRADE DEADLINE EDITION – Rantanen, Marchand, Nelson, Cozens, Jones, and much more!

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RALEIGH, NC - FEBRUARY 27: Carolina Hurricanes right wing Mikko Rantanen (96) talks to a Buffalo Sabres player during the NHL game between the Buffalo Sabres and the Carolina Hurricanes on February 27, 2025 at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Katherine Gawlik/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, a look at the movers and shakers from the NHL trade deadline, including Mikko Rantanen, Brad Marchand, Brock Nelson, Dylan Cozens, Seth Jones, and much more!

#1 The biggest blockbuster of deadline day saw the Carolina Hurricanes trade Mikko Rantanen to the Dallas Stars for Logan Stankoven and a couple of first-round picks. Rantanen has been massively productive, ranking eighth in the league with 649 points in 548 games since the start of the 2017-2018 season, but he did struggle in his short stint with Carolina, managing just six points (2 G, 4 A) in 13 games. Rantanen certainly should be a premier scorer in Dallas, where he could skate with fellow Finn Roope Hintz on the Stars’ top line, and Hintz is cooking, with 16 points (3 G, 13 A) in his past seven games. If he does recapture the form he showed in Colorado, Rantanen will raise the Stars’ offensive ceiling. Going the other way, Stankoven is officially a rookie and has 43 points (14 G, 29 A) in 83 career NHL games. He ought to have a regular spot in Carolina’s top six and it would not be a stretch to imagine an extra minute or two of ice time per game for the new Hurricanes winger.

#2 It is the end of an era in Boston, as the Bruins have traded captain Brad Marchand to the Florida Panthers. He is out of the lineup for three-to-four weeks with an upper-body injury, so that time frame means Marchand is likely of little value to fantasy managers. When he is healthy, Marchand could join Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk on a line that could wreak havoc in the postseason.

#3 The Colorado Avalanche made a big push to upgrade their roster, acquiring Brock Nelson from the New York Islanders and Charlie Coyle from the Boston Bruins. Nelson has 43 points (20 G, 23 A) in 61 games, marking the ninth season of his career in which he has recorded at least 20 goals. He is playing a career high 19:21 of ice time per game and that ice time could fall a little in Colorado, but Nelson should have better linemates with the Avalanche, so he may have a little more upside with his new team.

#4 In addition to Nelson, the Avs added Charlie Coyle, sending Casey Mittelstadt to Boston. After scoring a career high 60 points for the Bruins last season, Coyle has stumbled to 22 points (15 G, 7 A) through 64 games this season. He is likely going to fill the third-line centre role for the Avalanche, which doesn’t make him that appealing in most fantasy leagues. Mittelstadt is looking for a fresh start after putting up just 34 points (11 G, 23 A) as Colorado’s second line centre this season. Given the situation in Boston, where the Bruins are clearly rebuilding, it’s not the ideal scenario for Mittelstadt to enjoy a big finish to the season.

#5 The Buffalo Sabres dealt centre Dylan Cozens to the Ottawa Senators, bringing back centre Josh Norris as part of the return. Cozens had career highs of 31 goals and 68 points in 2022-2023 but he has not approached those numbers since and has a modest 31 points (11 G, 20 A) in 61 games this season. He is likely to see some improvement in shooting percentage, as his current rate of 7.9 percent is below his career mark of 10.0 percent, but moving to Ottawa does not suddenly mean an offensive breakout is coming. That’s the challenge for the Senators, to figure out if they can get Cozens back to his level of production from a couple of years ago. Norris has shown that he can put the puck in the net, scoring 77 goals in 173 games across the past four seasons. His biggest issue has been recurring shoulder injuries that have cost him playing time. The opportunity in Buffalo isn’t necessarily going to be that different for Norris, and the Sabres have enough quality to surround him with skilled wingers, but his fantasy appeal will be tied largely to how consistently he stays in the lineup.

#6 Defenceman Seth Jones had made it clear that he was ready to move on from the Chicago Blackhawks, so they traded him to the Florida Panthers. While Jones will probably not be required to play as much in Florida as he did in Chicago, where he averaged more than 25 minutes of playing time over the past four seasons, there will be a clear upgrade in talent around him. At least initially, it’s possible that Jones could have less appeal as a scorer in Florida, because he is on the Panthers’ second power play unit and 15 of his 27 points (7 G, 20 A) this season have come via the power play.

#7 Going the other way in that deal was goaltender Spencer Knight, the 13th pick in the 2019 Draft who missed all of last season, but has rebounded nicely in 2024-2025. Knight had a .907 save percentage in 23 games for the Panthers and has stopped 77 of 81 shots in his first two starts for Chicago. Knight is just 23 years old and should be Chicago’s goaltender of the future and even the goaltender of the present after the club dealt Petr Mrazek to Detroit. While the Blackhawks aren’t winning enough to make Knight especially valuable this season, he could grow into a star goaltender as the team in front of him improves.

#8 Dealing with some injuries in their forward group, the Minnesota Wild added wingers Gustav Nyquist and Justin Brazeau in separate trades with the Nashville Predators and Boston Bruins, respectively. Nyquist returns to Minnesota, where he had a solid stint late in the 2022-2023 season, contributing 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in nine regular-season-plus-playoff-games after he was acquired from Columbus. The veteran winger had a career-high of 75 points (21 G, 54 A) last season, but had managed just 21 points (12 G, 9 A) in 57 games for the Predators before the trade. Brazeau is a late bloomer who is playing his first full NHL season at age 27. The 6-foot-6 winger has 20 points (10 G, 10 A) in 57 games and while that does not scream offensive production, both Nyquist and Brazeau are capable of playing in Minnesota’s top nine and contributing secondary offense.

#9 The Tampa Bay Lightning turned to Seattle to add right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand and centre Yanni Gourde, bolstering a Lightning lineup that was already starting to make a strong push towards the postseason. Bjorkstrand is a five-time 20-goal scorer who had a career high of 59 points last season. He had 37 points (16 G, 21 A) in 61 games for Seattle and scored a goal in his first game for the Lightning. Gourde returns to Tampa Bay, where he was an integral part of their 2020 and 2021 Stanley Cup teams. He is feisty and can contribute offensively, though he has just 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 37 games after recording an assist in his return to the Tampa Bay lineup. Winger Michael Eyssimont was part of the deal going to Seattle and while he has struggled this season, he showed some potential last season and there could be a more consistent role for him in Seattle for the rest of the season.

#10 The Pittsburgh Penguins were busy shedding forwards to stockpile draft picks. They sent Michael Bunting to Nashville, and he has scored 79 goals across the past four seasons, making him a useful secondary scorer, in addition to his ability to agitate the opposition. In the short term, he is recovering from an appendectomy, so his contributions will have to wait. The Penguins also sent Anthony Beauvillier to Washington, and he has bounced around a lot since leaving the Islanders in 2022-2023. Beauvillier has 20 points (13 G, 7 A) in 63 games this season and it’s not likely that he will see much of an increase in playing time upon arriving in D.C. to join his new team, so his fantasy appeal will be limited. Cody Glass was traded to New Jersey, and he will give the Devils some additional help up front in the wake of Jack Hughes’ season-ending injury, but it’s not like Glass is going to fill the void created by Hughes’ absence. The sixth pick in the 2017 Draft, Glass had career highs of 14 goals and 35 points for Nashville in 2022-2023, but had just 15 points (4 G, 11 A) in 51 games for the Penguins at the time of the trade.

#11 It wasn’t all sending players away from Pittsburgh, as the Penguins brought in Tommy Novak from Nashville in the Bunting deal. After back-to-back seasons with more than 40 points, Novak looked like he could be on his way to holding down a second line centre spot, but this has been a challenging season and he had just 22 points (13 G, 9 A) in 52 games. Novak is one of the players who moved at the deadline who should see an uptick in ice time. He averaged 13:14 per game for Nashville, but it would be entirely reasonable for the Penguins to bump Novak up to 16 minutes per game to see if he can fulfill the role of the bona fide second line centre.

#12 Looking to add some depth to their roster, the Edmonton Oilers traded for Boston Bruins forward Trent Frederic and San Jose Sharks defenceman Jake Walman. Frederic hit career highs with 18 goals and 40 points last season but has just 15 points (8 G, 7 A) in 57 games this season. He is a big physical presence and could have some sneaky appeal in the playoffs, but his injury makes it seem likely that Frederic is not going to make a major difference during this regular season. Walman is an unheralded blueliner, yet one who produced a career high of 32 points (6 G, 26 A) in 50 games for the Sharks. He is a quality puck mover who has had some strong defensive numbers in the past when he played for Detroit. It's more difficult to put up strong defensive numbers in San Jose. Walman may see his ice time dip a little from the 23 minutes per game that he is averaging, but he should still hold a top four role and get second-unit power play time.

#13 Veteran winger Reilly Smith tallied a career high 26 goals on his way to 56 points in 2022-2023 and the Vegas Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup. Smith has struggled in two seasons since then, first with Pittsburgh and, this season, with the New York Rangers. Going back to Vegas, Smith could fulfill a secondary scoring role for the Golden Knights, though it also could be more challenging for him to secure a regular spot in Vegas’ top nine.

#14 The Toronto Maple Leafs, looking to improve their centre depth, brought in Scott Laughton from the Philadelphia Flyers. Laughton has limited offensive upside, hitting a career high of 43 points (18 G, 25 A) in 2022-2023, and with two points in his past 12 games, Laughton has 27 points (11 G, 16 A) in 60 games this season. However, he does have 129 hits in 60 games, so if he is contributing even a little bit offensively, there is a chance that Laughton will provide enough value to draw fantasy appeal in deep or banger leagues.

#15 After contributing five points (2 G, 3 A) in seven games for the Philadelphia Flyers following his trade from Calgary, winger Andrei Kuzmenko is on the move again, joining the Los Angeles Kings. Kuzmenko had career highs of 39 goals and 74 points for Vancouver in 2022-2023 but has been nowhere near that level of production in two years since then. He comes at a low cost for the Kings and Kuzmenko has enough skill that he could help upgrade the Kings’ offense. It looks like he could join Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, which would certainly be a quality situation for him, and might make him a fantasy sleeper at this stage of the season, but if Kuzmenko doesn’t produce in that spot, he could quickly lose relevance.

#16 For a player with little offensive output, Luke Kunin does hit enough to put him on the radar of fantasy managers. Acquired from the San Jose Sharks by the Columbus Blue Jackets, Kunin has 18 points (11 G, 7 A) in 63 games but he also has 163 hits in 63 games, so there is at least a chance that if Kunin plays in a top nine role for Columbus, that he might be able to contribute enough to earn some deep league fantasy attention.

#17 The Ottawa Senators made another move to address their goal-scoring woes, picking up Fabian Zetterlund from the San Jose Sharks. Zetterlund had 36 points (17 G, 19 A) in 64 games for the Sharks this season, playing nearly 17 minutes per game for the team with the worst record in the NHL. If he moves to a line with, say, Cozens and Drake Batherson, that should give Zetterlund a good chance to provide secondary scoring.

#18 Although he has just five points (2 G, 3 A) in 19 games this season, Daniel Sprong has shown that he can score in limited opportunities, scoring 39 goals in his previous two seasons despite playing fewer than 12 minutes per game. The Devils are reeling, with injuries knocking out centre Jack Hughes and defencemen Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler, but if Sprong gets a chance to play consistently, he could be worth tracking.

#19 Even if Fraser Minten isn’t likely to play much for the Boston Bruins down the stretch, after he was acquired from the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for defenceman Brandon Carlo, Minten is an intriguing long-term pickup. A second-round pick in 2022, Minten contributed four points (2 G, 2 A) in 15 games for the Maple Leafs this season and 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 26 games for the Toronto Marlies of the AHL. On a Bruins team that is going through a rebuilding process, Minten could have a real shot to play in the NHL next season.

#20 The Chicago Blackhawks decided not to move veteran forward Ryan Donato, who has set career highs with 23 goals and 47 points in 61 games. The 28-year-old second generation NHLer is on a seven-game point streak and has 18 points (8 G, 10 A) in his past 12 games. Expect the Blackhawks to ink Donato to some kind of contract extension, giving him a chance to remain in a bigger role than he has typically been afforded at other stops in his NHL career.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

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CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Early Standouts – Significant early injuries – Who benefits from opportunity https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-early-standouts-significant-early-injuries-benefits-opportunity/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-early-standouts-significant-early-injuries-benefits-opportunity/#respond Fri, 20 Oct 2023 22:14:31 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=182311 Read More... from CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Early Standouts – Significant early injuries – Who benefits from opportunity

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OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 14: Ottawa Senators Right Wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) after a whistle during second period National Hockey League action between the Philadelphia Flyers and Ottawa Senators on October 14, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, a look at a new Panthers winger plus lots of early injuries including to significant players like Sebastian Aho, Gabriel Vilardi, Kirby Dach, Viktor Arvidsson, Matthew Boldy, Pavel Buchnevich, and more. That means new opportunities for others looking for a bigger role.

#1 In the past couple of seasons, Evan Rodrigues has proven to be a premier shot generator who could thrive in a supporting offensive role. In those two seasons – one with Pittsburgh and one with Colorado – he put up 82 points (35 G, 47 A) in 151 games while generating 2.85 shots on goal per game. That was something of a late breakthrough for the now 30-year-old forward who is looking at an even better opportunity this season in Florida. Rodrigues has opened the season skating on Aleksander Barkov’s wing and is averaging 18:54 time on ice per game, which would be a career high, on the way to producing five points (2 G, 3 A) and 17 shots on goal in his first four games. It is obviously a very small sample, but Rodrigues has the underlying numbers to make his production more sustainable. For a player that has never had 20 goals and 50 points in an NHL season, Rodrigues should be looking to exceed those numbers this season.

#2 Entering the season, there did not seem to be a lot of buzz surrounding new Ottawa Senators right winger Vladimir Tarasenko, a six-time 30-goal scorer who signed with the club as a free agent. The veteran winger has opened his Sens tenure with six points (2 G, 4 A) in four games, but that doesn’t alleviate the concerns about him entirely, either. He is averaging just 13:38 of ice time per game, which would be his lowest since his rookie season in 2012-2013, and he only has six shots on goal through four games. Although Tarasenko has been skating with rookie Ridly Greig at center, with Josh Norris returning to the Senators lineup, that could eventually help Tarasenko get more offensive opportunities, but the ice time and shot rate bear watching.

#3 It is not easy for Ottawa Senators defenceman Jake Sanderson to get power play time on a team with Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun already, which is not to say that it never happens, only that he ranks second among Sens defencemen in five-on-four ice time behind Chabot. Even so, Sanderson is off to a stellar start, producing five points (2 G, 3 A) in four games. He only has five shots on goal, which is not encouraging, but Sanderson is going to get quality ice time, even if he is not always going to be quarterbacking Ottawa’s top power play unit.

#4 A lot was made of the decline in performance last season from Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Victor Hedman, but it might be premature to start the 32-year-old blueliner into a heavy decline phase of his career. Hedman has contributed five points (1 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal through five games, which is a promising start, but the Lightning have been getting outshot with Hedman on the ice (46.2 CF%), too, and that hasn’t happened for more than a decade.

#5 Carolina Hurricanes centre Sebastian Aho has been out for a couple of games and while his injury is thought to be a day-to-day thing, his absence is still felt. Through a couple of games, the Hurricanes were getting 79.1% of expected goals with Aho on the ice during five-on-five play, In Aho’s absence, Teuvo Teravainen has moved into the first line centre role and Teravainen has scored four goals in five games to start the season. Additionally, the Hurricanes have better depth down the middle as Jesperi Kotkaniemi continues to develop. The 23-year-old has started his sixth NHL season with five points (2 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in five games, averaging a career-high 15:51 of ice time per game.

#6 In a move that didn’t make a huge offseason splash, the Detroit Red Wings brought in puck-moving defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere. While he does not have a huge role, averaging 18:53 of ice time per game, Gostisbehere is getting first unit power play time alongside Moritz Seider and Gostisbehere already has four points (1 G, 3 A) in four games with the Red Wings controlling play (53.2 CF%) in Gostisbehere’s five-on-five minutes.

#7 Toronto Maple Leafs centre Auston Matthews is the early leader in all-situations expected goals (3.76), ahead of Matthew Tkachuk (3.23), Connor Bedard (3.10), Artturi Lehkonen (2.85), Filip Forsberg (2.74), and Jack Eichel (2.64). Bedard is obviously playing a lot for Chicago and creating chances, but they have yet to materialize into goals. For a player who enters the league with a legendary release, Bedard’s ability to generate high-quality shots bodes well for his future production. It’s also encouraging to see Eichel playing at such a high level. He had an outstanding playoff, but it appears in the early going that Eichel is going to continue at an elite level. He leads the NHL with 28 shots on goal in five games, though Nathan MacKinnon (27) and Auston Matthews (26) are close behind while playing just four games.

#8 Winnipeg Jets RW Gabriel Vilardi is out for four-to-six weeks with a sprained MCL, which is a tough situation for a player who was averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game through two games. Vilardi was also rocking a 73.3 CF%, but now the Jets will need to find someone to fill those minutes. It looks like Mason Appleton will get first crack alongside Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele and that is a big opportunity for a 27-year-old who scored a career-high 25 points (12 G, 13 A) in 56 games in 2020-2021.

#9 Montreal lost centre Kirby Dach to a torn ACL, ending the 22-year-old’s season prematurely. He had two assists and 70.4 CF% in two games before getting hurt. Alex Newhook will slide into the middle of the ice to fill the hole created by Dach’s absence, while Tanner Pearson will move up the depth chart to take Newhook’s spot on left wing. Pearson, who played just 14 games last season, has two goals in three games to start his Habs career.

#10 On the Florida Panthers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final last season, Sam Bennett was an impact player at centre, between Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk. Bennett has yet to play this season because of a lower-body injury, so Eetu Luostarinen is getting that opportunity. Unfortunately, he has yet to record a point and has just one shot on goal in four games. That is not making the most of the situation.

#11 Los Angeles Kings winger Viktor Arvidsson has been an excellent and sometimes underrated contributor, but he is out long term after undergoing back surgery, which means new opportunities on the right side in Los Angeles. Arthur Kaliyev is skating in Arvidsson’s typical spot, alongside Phillip Danault and Trevor Moore, while rookie Alexis Laferriere has landed a prime spot on the wing with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Kevin Fiala. Kaliyev may have the higher upside as a scorer, as he has shown a strong ability to generate shots, even in limited ice time. Arvidsson’s injury should help ensure that Kaliyev sees a good jump in ice time this season, opening the door for a breakout season.

#12 Injuries have hit the Minnesota Wild hard early in the season. Rising star winger Matthew Boldy and defencemen Jared Spurgeon and Alex Goligoski are all out of action for Minnesota and they are not easily replaced. Taking Boldy’s spot is Samuel Walker, a 24-year-old who has two points (1 G, 1 A) in 10 career NHL games and did not have any points in two AHL games this season, but he did produce 48 points (27 G, 21 A) in 56 AHL games last season, so this is a real chance to Walker to show his stuff at the NHL level. Spurgeon’s absence also gives Calen Addison the role of first unit power play quarterback, which is an area in which the young defenceman has excelled, with 18 of his 29 points last season coming with the man advantage.

#13 While fourth lines are not going to bring big fantasy appeal, it’s worth noting what is happening in Detroit, where Christian Fischer (83.7 xGF%) and Klim Kostin (80.2 xGF%) are dominating play to a ridiculous degree. Austin Czarnik has played only two games, but Detroit has controlled 86.3% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Czarnik on the ice.

#14 Staying in Detroit, veteran winger Robby Fabbri made it through one game before suffering another injury and Fabbri’s injury presents an opportunity for Michael Rasmussen to climb up the depth chart. Rasmussen had a career-high 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 56 games last season, but his average ice time has increased by more than a minute per game in the early going this season and he has a couple of points (1 G, 1 A) in four games.

#15 Although he can get overshadowed by the top two centres on the Devils roster, Erik Haula’s upper body injury is notable for a team that thrives on its depth. With Haula out, Michael McLeod moves from the fourth line centre to third line centre and while McLeod has established that he is a solid fourth liner, his offensive production has kept him in that role. He has just 10 goals in 157 games over the past two seasons, so if McLeod is ever going to shake his fourth-line label, he will need to take advantage when he gets the chance to play in the top nine.

#16 Expectations were already very low for the San Jose Sharks coming into the season, but it has been made even more difficult with veteran centres Mikael Granlund and Logan Couture out of the lineup. Rookie Thomas Bordeleau and veteran Luke Kunin are handling the middle six centre roles for the Sharks. Bordeleau has managed one goal and five shots on goal through four games while he has been caved in when it comes to puck possession (31.1 CF%). Kunin has yet to record a point and is not much better at driving play (33.0 CF%). This should come as little surprise, but it reveals how much of an uphill fight it is for San Jose right now.

#17 St. Louis Blues winger Pavel Buchnevich suffered an upper-body injury when crushed into the boards by Seattle Kraken defenceman Jamie Oleksiak, and while Buchnevich has been out, the opportunity has fallen to 21-year-old Jake Neighbours, who has managed zero points and two shots on goal in three games this season. A chance to play in St. Louis’ top six is not bad, but it is up to Neighbours to show that he deserves to stay in a significant role over the long term.

#18 It is still super early, but there are some forwards raising red flags with their early struggles. Timo Meier was benched for the third period against Florida and has zero points and four shots on goal in three games. Meier has always been able to generate shots, so that is a notable concern with his game in New Jersey, but he really should be able to figure it out.

#19 When he returned to action last season following hip resurfacing surgery, Washington Capitals centre Nicklas Backstrom struggled, to a degree that he never really had in the NHL before. With a fresh start this season, 35-year-old Backstrom is still struggling to find his way. He has zero points in three games and is averaging 15:45 of ice time per game, which would be the lowest rate of his career. Backstrom is still getting top unit power play time but is skating between Sonny Milano and Tom Wilson at even strength, so he is not nearly the dangerous scoring threat that he was during his prime.

#20 After getting bought out by the Winnipeg Jets, 37-year-old right winger Blake Wheeler landed with the New York Rangers. Through four games with the Blueshirts, not only does Wheeler not have any points, but he is playing just 12:26 per game, which would be the lowest time on ice of his career. He is skating on a line with centre Vincent Trocheck and rookie left winger Will Cuylle. While Wheeler’s all-around game has declined in recent seasons, he still produced 55 points (16 G, 39 A) last season and early returns suggest that he will not be continuing at that level this season.

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CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Opportunities in deployment in the very early going – Boeser, Donato, Couturier, Paul, Newhook and more! https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-opportunities-deployment-early-boeser-donato-couturier-paul-newhook-more/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-opportunities-deployment-early-boeser-donato-couturier-paul-newhook-more/#respond Sat, 14 Oct 2023 12:42:35 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=182290 Read More... from CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Opportunities in deployment in the very early going – Boeser, Donato, Couturier, Paul, Newhook and more!

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BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 11: Chicago Blackhawks center Connor Bedard (98) skates up ice during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Chicago Blackhawks on October 11, 2023, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, as most teams have played one or maybe two games, here is a look at the early results, looking at deployment in an effort to pull insights from the very early action. Brock Boeser, Ryan Donato, Sean Couturier, Nick Paul, Alex Newhook and more!

#1 Last season was trying for Vancouver Canucks right winger Brock Boeser, who finished with 18 goals in 74 games, the lowest per-game goal-scoring rate of his career. His father had died the previous May and that appeared to be having an effect. He also scored on 10.1% of his shots, which was below his career rate of 13.0%, so things were off, and he asked for a trade. Boeser rescinded that request and began this season with the ideal fresh start, scoring four goals in an 8-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers. He was the beneficiary of some favourable bounces of the puck, but there is no need to apologize for how one scores four goals in a game. Boeser is skating on a line with Phillip Di Giuseppe and J.T. Miller at even strength and getting first unit power play time, so the opportunity is there for a bounce-back campaign.

#2 The Chicago Blackhawks have not been shy about how they are using No. 1 overall draft pick Connor Bedard through two games. Bedard has looked as NHL-ready as anyone could ask from a teenager, contributing one goal and one assist in two games, but he is also averaging 21:37 of ice time per game, which is unusually high for a rookie forward. Since 2000-2001, there have been three rookie forwards to average more than 20 minutes of ice time per game: Alex Ovechkin, Anze Kopitar, and Sidney Crosby. Ovechkin was a 20-year-old rookie, who averaged 21:37 per game, while the other two were 18, but averaged 20:32 and 20:06 per game, respectively. This is not to suggest that Bedard shouldn’t play this much. This Chicago team is geared for him to get opportunities and part of that is going to be the amount of ice time he receives.

#3 There is already a change on Bedard’s wing, though, as left winger Taylor Hall suffered an upper-body injury in the second game of the season at Boston. With Hall out, there will be a new opportunity on Bedard’s line. Ryan Donato is already having some success on Bedard’s wing, with two points (1 G, 1 A) and seven shots on goal while averaging 18:34 time on ice per game. Andreas Athanasiou got the first opportunity to take Hall’s spot so that could offer great potential for him, at least in the short term.

#4 Staying in Chicago for one more point, keep tabs on rookie defenceman Kevin Korchinski. The seventh pick in the 2022 Draft, Korchinski has averaged more than 20 minutes per game through his first two NHL contests and looks like he could be a building block for the Blackhawks. He is getting second unit power play time now, but it would not be out of the question to see Korchinski emerge as a first unit power play defenseman. The 19-year-old had 73 points (11 G, 62 A) in 54 games for Seattle of the WHL last season.

#5 Appearing in his first NHL game since December of 2021, Flyers centre Sean Couturier played 20:39 and had an assist. The 30-year-old is a legit No. 1 centre when he is healthy and, right now, that looks to be the case. Couturier is skating between Joel Farabee and rookie Bobby Brink to start the season, a great opportunity for Brink to play with a play-driving centre like Couturier.

#6 When he was traded from Edmonton to Nashville last season, there was real concern for fantasy managers that Tyson Barrie would lose out on prime power play minutes in Nashville. The presence of Roman Josi had the top power play defenseman role covered, but the Preds have opened this season by going with two defensemen on their top power play, meaning that Barrie still gets first unit power play time. Being on the first unit in Edmonton and Nashville offer different value, but getting first unit power play time will help to keep Barrie more appealing for fantasy managers and Barrie’s presence on the top unit appears to be coming at the expense of rookie winger Luke Evangelista, who has dropped to the second unit.

#7 With Alex Killorn departing as a free agent, there was an opening on the top power play unit in Tampa Bay and Nick Paul sure is making the most of his opportunity there. The third line centre for the Lightning scored a pair of power play goals in the season opener. While he scored a career-high 17 goals last season and had career highs of 32 points in each of the past two seasons, if Paul sticks on the top power play in Tampa Bay, he will surpass those numbers.

#8 One of the benefits for a young player moving from a powerhouse team to a rebuilding squad is that there is more opportunity available to them. That sure looks like the case for Alex Newhook, who scored a pair of goals in his debut with the Montreal Canadiens. Newhook, who averaged 13:46 of ice time per game in Colorado, played 16:46 in his first game for Montreal, skating on a line with Kirby Dach and Juraj Slafkovsky.

#9 He has only started one regular season game, but Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov looked shaky in allowing five goals to the Montreal Canadiens. He didn’t look stellar in his last preseason start against Detroit, either and, given the unpredictability of the goaltending position, it might be worth keeping Joseph Woll on your fantasy radar. Samsonov will have some leeway, but Woll has a .924 save percentage in 11 career starts, and that could help the 25-year-old get a look if Samsonov doesn’t get on track.

#10 When the Winnipeg Jets sent Pierre-Luc Dubois to Los Angeles in the summer, they received three forwards as part of the package and two of them, Gabe Vilardi and Alex Iafallo, started the season on Winnipeg’s top power play unit. Vilardi is not a stranger to the power play, having scored five times with the man advantage last season. He recorded seven shots on goal and played more than 21 minutes in his Jets debut at Calgary. Iafallo had seven power play goals for the Kings last season and scored in his first game for Winnipeg. It will be interesting to see if they stay there all season, but if Vilardi and Iafallo are getting first unit power play time, that should raise their offensive ceiling.

#11 Calgary Flames rookie winger Matt Coronato is also getting first unit power play time. The 13th pick in the 2021 Draft, Coronato tallied 38 goals in 68 games through two seasons of college hockey at Harvard, but he sniped 48 goals in 51 games in his last season with Chicago of the USHL. Again, if Coronato can hold a place on Calgary’s No. 1 power play, he will have greater offensive potential as a result.

#12 With all the promising situations for young players getting first unit power pay time, it stands out that Columbus made sophomore winger Kent Johnson a healthy scratch in Blue Jackets’ season opener. Johnson is a wildly talented player who had 40 points (16 G, 24 A) in 79 games last season. The details of Johnson’s defensive game could surely improve, but for a rebuilding team, it is surprising to see a skilled young player get sent to the press box to start the season.

#13 There has been plenty of shuffling with Columbus’ forward lines. Last week, I wrote about Patrik Laine moving to centre and he remains there, with Johnny Gaudreau on the left side and now Cole Sillinger taking a turn on right side. Sillinger was the 12th pick in the 2021 Draft and showed great promise, making the Blue Jackets that year and scoring 31 points (16 G, 15 A) in 79 games. Last season was a mess, however, and he ended up getting demoted to the AHL after managing just 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in 64 games. The chance to play with Laine and Gaudreau is a prime opportunity for Sillinger to get his career on track and he is still just 20!

#14 Columbus also lost defenseman Zach Werenski for 1-2 weeks with a quad contusion. Werenski has had major trouble staying healthy and that apparently continues. With Werenski hurt, Ivan Provorov got first crack at quarterbacking the Blue Jackets’ power play but that was really not Provorov’s strong suit in Philadelphia. He did have 16 power play points in the 2019-2020 season. If Provorov does not stick in that role, Adam Boqvist, Damon Severson or Jake Bean could all get a look, which speaks to how much Columbus would probably just prefer to have Werenski back there.

#15 Roope Hintz missed the season opener for the Dallas Stars, though head coach Peter DeBoer suggested that it was not a serious injury, and he would have played if it was a playoff game. That does not sound like Hintz will miss a lot of time but, while he is out, Tyler Seguin reaps the rewards, moving into Hintz’s first line centre spot and taking a turn on the Stars’ top power play unit.

#16 Minnesota Wild netminder Filip Gustavsson had a breakthrough season in 2022-2023, posting a .931 save percentage in 39 games. He followed that up with a 41-save shutout against Florida in his first start of the season, picking up where he left off. By the end of last season, Gustavsson had emerged as Minnesota’s best option between the pipes, and he is going to keep pushing for more action if he delivers like he did against the Panthers. Obviously, the more that Gustavsson starts, that would mean fewer starts for Marc-Andre Fleury.

#17 In the offseason, there was no team that looked to be in worse shape than San Jose for having a defenseman take a regular spot on its top power play. It should come as little surprise, then, that rookie Henry Thrun is getting a look in the quarterback role on San Jose’s top power play unit. Thrun had 31 points (7 G, 24 A) in 33 games at Harvard last season before adding a couple of assists in eight games for the Sharks. That does not indicate that he is surely going to quarterback San Jose’s power play into perpetuity, but he is getting the chance now.

#18 Playing his first game since suffering a torn ACL last season, San Jose’s Luke Kunin led Sharks forwards with 19:36 time on ice against Vegas. That seems rather high, but Kunin hovers around the fringes of fantasy relevance because he can score a little and is an active hitter – he had 223 hits in the 2021-2022 season – and if he is going to play that much, then he will move even closer to fantasy relevance.

#19 It looks like Shea Theodore is getting reps on the top power play unit for Vegas to start the season. Last season, Alex Pietrangelo received a little more power play time per game, and Theodore missed 27 games, so Pietrangelo had more power play time overall. However, Theodore had more power play time in the playoffs and, through a couple of games, looks like he is once again Vegas’ top power play option on the point.

#20 The Vancouver Canucks have reportedly given winger Conor Garland the go-ahead to seek a trade, which will not be easy given that he comes with a $4.95-million cap hit for two seasons beyond this one. Garland scored on opening night but played just 9:52 in an 8-1 rout over Edmonton but he was playing with Elias Pettersson, which isn’t going to hurt his value. Once Ilya Mikheyev returns from injury, that could leave Garland in a tough spot. He is a quality play-driving winger who has produced 98 points (36 G, 62 A) over the past two seasons.

 

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CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Players Making Noise in Training Camp https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-players-making-noise-training-camp/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-players-making-noise-training-camp/#respond Fri, 07 Oct 2022 14:29:37 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=177736 Read More... from CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Players Making Noise in Training Camp

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20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

Before the puck drops on the regular season, a look at some players that have made noise in training camp and preseason and might be able to contribute this season. In most cases, these players would have more appeal in deep leagues but, at the very least, it is worth keeping an eye on how they develop during the season.

WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 26: Panthers center Anton Lundell (15) skates during the Florida Panthers versus Washington Capitals National Hockey League game on November 26, 2021 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

#1. Florida Panthers center Anton Lundell had a strong rookie season, putting up 44 points in 65 games, and it would be natural to expect continued improvement from the 21-year-old pivot. There is the possibility, though, that he moves up the depth chart and is not centering the third line but possibly centering the second line or even skating on the wing alongside Aleksander Barkov on Florida’s top line. That creates the possibility of Lundell’s production spiking in his second season if the circumstances play out in his favor.

#2. The ninth pick in the 2020 Draft by the Minnesota Wild, center Marco Rossi had his 2020-2021 season undone by COVID-19 then put up 53 points in 63 AHL games last season. With the Wild needing players on entry level deals to contribute, the opportunity is there for Rossi, and he is making the most of it. Not only does he have eight points in four preseason games, but he has recently been given a shot to play on the top line between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello.

#3. After missing most of the 2021-2022 season, Ottawa Senators center Shane Pinto is healthy and looking like he could be a contributor to an improved Sens attack this season. Pinto has eight points in 17 career games and looks like he will start the season as Ottawa’s third-line center, but he will also get power play time and has the skill to move up in the lineup, if needed.

#4. Right winger Luke Kunin contributed 13 goals and 22 points for the Nashville Predators last season, adding 223 hits in 82 games. Those hit totals moved Kunin into the realm of fantasy relevance but, after a trade to the Sharks, it looks like he could have even more appeal to start the 2022-2023 season. Kunin is starting the season skating on the right wing of San Jose’s top line, alongside Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl, a legitimate opportunity to increase his offensive output.

#5. Drafted 14th overall in 2020 by the Edmonton Oilers, Dylan Holloway is doing his best to force the Oilers to keep him on the roster. The University of Wisconsin product had 22 points in 33 AHL games last season as a rookie pro and appeared in one playoff game for Edmonton. He has put up four goals and six points in four preseason games in his bid to make Edmonton’s opening night lineup.

#6. Buffalo Sabres center Dylan Cozens has produced 51 points in 120 games through his first two seasons, but developed his game last season, with better possession results leading to improved scoring. The next step for Cozens is to have his shooting percentage pick up. It was 7.7% last season, on his way to 13 goals, but if the 21-year-old continues to improve and that shooting percentage improves, 20 goals should be within his grasp.

#7. The Boston Bruins were already facing a potentially difficult start to the season with injuries to Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy, and Matt Grzelcyk, but Taylor Hall has joined them in the infirmary with an upper-body injury. That will open up more of an opportunity for Pavel Zacha, who was acquired from New Jersey in the offseason. Zacha scored a career-high 36 points in 70 games for the Devils last season but is now looking at a chance to start the season playing on a line with David Krejci and David Pastrnak, two gifted offensive players, and that raises Zacha’s offensive ceiling.

#8. The sixth pick in the 2018 Draft, Filip Zadina has been mostly underwhelming to this point in his career, managing 61 points in 160 games for the Detroit Red Wings. He has scored on just 7.6% of his shots, which is quite low for a scoring winger. With Derek Lalonde taking over behind the Red Wings bench, Zadina gets something of a fresh start and with Detroit upgrading their roster in the offseason, there is a better chance for Zadina to contribute secondary offense.

#9. Highly touted defenseman Nils Lundkvist did not have the kind of North American debut that he had hoped for last season, producing four points in 25 games for the New York Rangers and 15 points in 34 games for Hartford of the American Hockey League. Traded to the Dallas Stars, Lundkvist has a new opportunity to make his mark in the NHL and he has put 13 shots on goal in four preseason contests. While he is not worthy of widespread fantasy interest now, it is worth tracking Lundkvist’s progress with his new team.

#10. Landing on a rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks squad, Max Domi is seeking a new opportunity after he had 39 points in 72 games last season, playing a career-low 13:02 per game in a season that started with the Columbus Blue Jackets and ended with the Carolina Hurricanes. With Chicago, Domi has the chance to skate on a line with Patrick Kane and possibly Andreas Athanasiou. While that line has its flaws, they may be able to generate some offense and Domi should see an uptick in ice time because there just are not that many good options available in Chicago.

#11. After scoring a career-high 19 goals and 43 points for Pittsburgh last season, Evan Rodrigues could not secure a free agent contract until he signed with Colorado in September. That could turn out to be a nice fit for Rodrigues and the Avalanche because with Gabriel Landeskog out at the start of the season, Rodrigues could open the season in Colorado’s top six. Rodrigues played a career-high 15:50 per game last season and his shot rate jumped to 2.96 shots per game. If he has a regular role in Colorado, there will be opportunities for him to score.

#12. Veteran winger Tomas Tatar had just 30 points in 76 games for the New Jersey Devils last season, tying his career-low, set in just 50 games the season before. His 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage last season was 6.8%, the lowest of his career, so Tatar should be able to count on some positive regression in that sense. He is a six-time 20-goal scorer who has scored more than 55 points three times in his career. With the Devils’ forward group improving, Tatar could either get bumped down the depth chart or he could thrive with more talent around him.

#13.  He is 39 years old and will not be quarterbacking the first power play unit in Toronto, but defenseman Mark Giordano had 12 points in 20 games for the Maple Leafs after he was acquired from Seattle before the trade deadline last season. He also had 41 blocked shots and 29 hits in those 20 games, so he can still be a considerable factor for a Maple Leafs team that should still be one of the best in the league this season.

#14. The Tampa Bay Lightning can move their forwards around the lineup, but it is worth tracking Vladislav Namestnikov, the 29-year-old who is returning to where his NHL career began. Namestnikov has recently been getting a look on Tampa Bay’s top line, with Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov and while Namestnikov has only had one season in his career with more than 35 points, anyone getting the chance to play with Stamkos and Kucherov is deserving of fantasy consideration.

#15. Acquired by the Vancouver Canucks in the trade that sent Jonathan Dahlen to San Jose, right winger Linus Karlsson produced 26 goals and 46 points in 52 games for Skelleftea of the Swedish Hockey League last season. The 22-year-old may not be NHL ready yet, but he has finishing skill and if the Canucks have forward openings – Brock Boeser and Ilya Mikheyev are currently dealing with injuries – maybe Karlsson gets a longer look in Vancouver.

#16. Just last week, I was writing about the potential of Nashville Predators right winger Philip Tomasino, the second year forward who has the potential to move into a scoring role with the Preds. That might take some time, however, since he is going to be a healthy scratch to start the season, with Kiefer Sherwood earning a spot in the opening game lineup ahead of Tomasino. Sherwood is a 27-year-old who has scored 18 points and recorded 155 hits in 87 career NHL games, but he has the right-wing job on Nashville’s second line to start the season.

#17. The Florida Panthers signed goaltender Spencer Knight to a three-year, $13.5 million contract extension, an indication that the Panthers see Knight as their starting goaltender of the future, but he could become the goaltender of the present, too. The 13th pick in the 2019 Draft, Knight has a .909 save percentage in 36 NHL games, so he is just getting started, but if Sergei Bobrovsky falters, the Panthers should have little hesitation about giving Knight a bigger share of the starts this season.

#18.  A potential backup goaltender on what will likely be a bad team is hardly the stuff of fantasy championships but have an eye on Samuel Ersson of the Philadelphia Flyers. A fifth-round pick in 2018, Ersson has impressed in training camp and preseason action. He had a .904 save percentage in 78 SHL games before getting into a handful of AHL games last season. His development might be better suited to the AHL, where he can play a lot, but it is possible that Ersson wins the job backing up Carter Hart in Philadelphia.

#19. A first-round pick by the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2020, Yegor Chinakhov produced a modest 14 points in 62 games as a rookie last season. The Blue Jackets have some talent on the wings, which could make it difficult for Chinakhov to move into a scoring role, but he does have five goals in five preseason games, production that could help him secure a better spot on the depth chart for his sophomore season.

#20. Looking for a chance to resurrect his career, Sam Steel is getting that opportunity with the Minnesota Wild. The 24-year-old, who was a first-round pick in 2016, had 65 points in 197 games with the Anaheim Ducks, but they did not give him a qualifying offer following last season, casting him into the free agent waters. Steel has five points in four preseason games and has recently been getting a chance to skate on a line with Fredrick Gaudreau and Matt Boldy, which is a solid opportunity for a player who scored a ton in junior but has yet to take that junior production and see it translate to the NHL.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

 

 

 

 

 

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MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – SAN JOSE SHARKS – NHL Player Profiles https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2022-23-nhl-yearbook-san-jose-sharks-nhl-player-profiles/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2022-23-nhl-yearbook-san-jose-sharks-nhl-player-profiles/#respond Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:24:48 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=177486 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – SAN JOSE SHARKS – NHL Player Profiles

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SAN JOSE, CA - FEBRUARY 14: San Jose Sharks center Tomas Hertl (48) and San Jose Sharks right wing Timo Meier (28) talk during a timeout during the NHL game between the San Jose Sharks and the Edmonton Oilers on February 14, 2022 at SAP Center in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Matt Cohen/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Timo Meier

An elite shot generator who had everything come together in 2021-2022, Meier had career highs in goal (35) and points (76) while launching 4.23 shots on goal per game, the highest rate of his career and fifth highest rate in the league. There had been signs of this kind of performance before, but last season Meier was a consistent force throughout the season and it’s not easy to generate shots and points at that rate, especially for a team that is struggling. Now that sets a new level of expectations for what he might be able to accomplish in the future, but if the Sharks are going to become a more competitive franchise, they will likely need more of the same from Meier. Furthermore, if he puts up another season like he did last season, there ought to be greater league-wide recognition for his performance because he was outstanding last season. Tempering expectations, Meier should be a reasonable bet for 30 goals and 65 points this season, with the understanding that if he can maintain his elite shot rates that he could very well be a point-per-game player.

Tomas Hertl

After committing to stay in San Jose with a new contract, Hertl responded by scoring 30 goals for the second time in his career and his 64 points also represented the second highest total of his career. A powerful and skilled center, Hertl also recorded a career high 105 hits and played a career high 19:56 per game. It was a very productive campaign, and he did all of this despite starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone, which does not seem like an ideal use of his talents. Hertl is solid defensively, that’s not the point, but the 28-year-old’s offensive skills set him apart to a greater degree, so it might make more sense to focus his efforts there, when possible. Hertl should be able to produce 25 goals and 60 points, with room to elevate further depending on his durability and how well his supporting cast in San Jose performs.

Logan Couture

The 33-year-old center continues to deliver solid results, and he put up 23 goals and 56 points last season while driving play in a positive way, at least relative to his teammates. Couture’s shot rate of 2.58 shots per game last season was his highest since 2017-2018, the season when he scored a career-high 34 goals, but he has established a level of productivity in the league, surpassing 20 goals nine times and topping 30 goals three times. The main question for the Sharks will be for how much longer can he produce at a first line level? He is under contract for five more seasons, and it seems unlikely that he will avoid decline in that time, but he is coming off a strong season and should be in position to be a productive scoring center again, good for at least 50 points, maybe even more.

Alexander Barabanov

After starting his NHL career as a spare part with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Barabanov has found stability in San Jose, producing 46 points in 79 games since joining the Sharks. Some measure of that production may reflect opportunity more than his own individual improvement, because Barabanov’s most common Sharks linemates have been Tomas Hertl and Timo Meier, so that is about as favorable as it gets for a Sharks winger. Barabanov also happens to be a relatively reluctant shooter, so having him in a playmaking role with the team’s top two goal-scorers does offer a stylistic fit. It’s hard to pin down a forecast for Barabanov because he seems so heavily dependent on linemates that are better players, so if he was to get bumped from the top line, his value could drop dramatically. As such, the reasonable play would be to expect 30 points from Barabanov, with the understanding that he has potential upside that could take him higher.

Kevin Labanc

A skilled 26-year-old winger, Labanc had stumbled since busting out for a career high 56 points in 2018-2019 and he had managed just six points in 21 games before he had to undergo shoulder surgery and that ultimately left him sidelined for the rest of the season. In his last eight games before surgery, Labanc had zero points and was averaging just 10 minutes of ice time per game, so he was at a relative low point. He has the playmaking skill to play in a top six role but after some injuries and inconsistency he will have to earn his way back into a significant spot with this team. Labanc could do it, because he has the puck skills and the shot to be a point producer in the National Hockey League but, coming off shoulder surgery, it is not going to be easy to get back to his previous level of production. If Labanc produced 35-40 points and managed to stay healthy, that would be a positive outcome, but there is a path to even more points if he could get back to his early career form.

Oskar Lindblom

Although the Philadelphia Flyers stuck with Lindblom while he recovered from Ewing’s Sarcoma, he had not been able to recapture his previous form, so the Flyers bought out the final year of his contract. That presented an opportunity for the Sharks to buy low on a 26-year-old winger who had shown real promise early in his NHL career. It is a worthwhile risk to take because Lindblom’s defensive play is solid enough, which raises the floor on his level of contribution, but if the 26-year-old can get his scoring touch back then he might have a chance to score 15 goals and 30 points to provide a favorable return on investment.

Luke Kunin

Picked up in a trade with the Nashville Predators, Kunin is a feisty winger whose on-ice results aren’t great, but teams that want guys who will go to battle are interested in players like Kunin because he hits a lot and will drop the gloves, if need be. He does have some level of skill, scoring 38 goals in 183 games across the past three seasons, but the challenge for the Sharks is taking the parts of Kunin’s game that they like and figuring out how to improve his possession results because, among the 232 forwards that have played at least 2000 5v5 minutes in the past three seasons, Kunin ranks 231st in relative Corsi. If he can overcome those underlying numbers, Kunin could produce 15 goals and 25-30 points, while potentially adding huge hit totals – he had 223 hits last season, the first time in his career that he had more than 90 hits in a season.

Nick Bonino

A reliable veteran who struggled quite a bit last season, Bonino went 18 games without a point to start the season, though he ended up scoring eight goals in his last 15 games to finish with more respectable numbers. Still, 26 points in 80 games was the 34-year-old’s lowest per-game production since his rookie season of 2010-2011. Bonino tends to have the deck stacked against him, starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone, and even with his sound defensive play, his possession numbers have been terrible the past two seasons. Given his age, it’s fair to wonder if he will be able to turn that around. Setting an expectation for 15 goals and 30 points is reasonable enough, provided Bonino can maintain a top nine role.

Noah Gregor

A 24-year-old winger, Gregor has started to make his mark in the NHL by generating shots at a high rate but has not been able to finish his chances, scoring on just 6.4% of his shots on goal in his career. If he can’t finish at a higher rate, then Gregor will have to provide energy and physical play in a depth role. It is still relatively early in Gregor’s NHL career, so he will face a challenge from others just to secure a spot in the lineup, but if Gregor can play on a consistent basis, 25 points could be in his sights, and his scoring numbers could spike if he ever learns how to finish. He had scored 14 goals and 40 points in 43 AHL games, so it’s not like he is unfamiliar with the objective when he gets into the offensive zone. It has just proven to be difficult for him to finish his opportunities in the NHL.

DEFENSE

Erik Karlsson

Following a down season in 2020-2021, Karlsson bounced back in a big way last season. While he wasn’t peak Karlsson, he still put up 35 points in 50 games. Of course, injuries have played a bigger part in Karlsson’s career in recent seasons, as he has not played 70 games in a season since 2017-2018. Since 2013-2014, Karlsson has scored 497 points which ranks fourth among defensemen. His 0.82 points per game ranks second among defensemen (behind Cale Makar). With Brent Burns getting traded to Carolina, Karlsson should have a bigger role quarterbacking the Sharks power play, so if Karlsson could manage to stay healthy, he might have his best offensive production in several seasons. Try 45 points with potential for more if Karlsson manages to stay healthy. That health risk is not something to be ignored, either, since Karlsson has missed more than 10 games in four of the past five seasons.

Ryan Merkley

The 2018 first-round pick reached the National Hockey League last season and played 39 games for the Sharks. While he has potential, with the ability to generate offensive chances, he is also a work in progress when it comes to his play without the puck. That could leave him in a battle for a regular spot in the lineup, but the 22-year-old also offers offensive potential and that might hold some value for the Sharks. Merkley has 30 points, though just two goals, in 63 AHL games, so he has a little bit of an offensive track record that should offer more hope than the six points in 39 games that he scored for the Sharks last season.

Mario Ferraro

A bundle of energy who plays hard, which is exactly what the Sharks are trying to establish as their team identity. The 23-year-old was one of 11 defensemen to record at least 140 hits and 140 blocked shots last season, even though he was limited to 63 games after suffering a broken fibula. There is still room for improvement, with regard to how he can generate offense and how he defends the blueline. If Ferraro could produce more than 20 points that would count as progress, but that also might be enough, along with his hit and blocked shot totals, to give him fringe fantasy value in deep leagues.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic

There was a time when Vlasic was a premier shutdown defender but that is in the rearview mirror now and the 35-year-old’s role has been reduced significantly in recent seasons. He played a career-low 15:13 per game last season and is now an expensive depth defenseman. San Jose has been outscored 141-91 with Vlasic on the ice during 5-on-5 play in the past three seasons, so it’s understandable that his role is getting reduced and that reduced role limits what kind of scoring might come from Vlasic. Anything more than 15 points would be relatively surprising.

GOALTENDING

James Reimer

The San Jose Sharks quickly cleared up any lingering questions that fans might have had regarding their goaltending tandem positions a few weeks before training camp was set to open, dealing Adin Hill to the Vegas Golden Knights and leaving James Reimer with only backup Kaapo Kähkönen as his second-in-command.

The Sharks remain a hard team to figure out from a goaltending perspective, because they just can’t seem to put it all together – although Reimer, who will be 35-years-old before the season wraps up, has been their most successful option over the last handful of years. His .911 save percentage in all situations was peppered with consistently good games and very few poor ones, similar to the games that Antti Raanta posted for Carolina in Reimer’s old spot on the east coast; like Raanta, Reimer played a season that didn’t challenge for any Vezina nods but gave his team a known and consistent entity to play behind each night. Reimer’s game still has a few of the rough edges that have lingered as a tribute to the unorthodox development path he took – he didn’t receive formal goaltending coaching until later in his adolescence, giving him a style that relies more on his instincts than monotonous style and predictable footwork. But while he lacks some of the finesse of goaltenders who had earlier formal training, his affable personality shines through in how seamlessly he integrates himself into a team’s defensive system; he seems to rarely find himself fighting against those playing in front of him, and his lack of inconsistency over the last five or six seasons make it easy to trust that he’ll get the job done in the back while his teammates can focus their games more on offense. His biggest risk area remains his health; while he hasn’t missed extensive time recently, his laundry list of injuries over his career keep him firmly encamped among the goaltenders who will always need a reliable number two just in case the team is left without their services for a stretch.

Projected starts: 50-55

 

 

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CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Rookies Matt Boldy and Vasily Podkolzin are surging late in the season, plus unexpected value from Dmitry Orlov, Gustav Forsling, Ross Colton, Artturi Lehkonen, and Frederick Gaudreau. https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-rookies-matt-boldy-vasily-podkolzin-surging-late-season-unexpected-dmitry-orlov-gustav-forsling-ross-colton-artturi-lehkonen-frederick-gaudreau/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-rookies-matt-boldy-vasily-podkolzin-surging-late-season-unexpected-dmitry-orlov-gustav-forsling-ross-colton-artturi-lehkonen-frederick-gaudreau/#respond Fri, 22 Apr 2022 15:04:22 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=176039 Read More... from CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Rookies Matt Boldy and Vasily Podkolzin are surging late in the season, plus unexpected value from Dmitry Orlov, Gustav Forsling, Ross Colton, Artturi Lehkonen, and Frederick Gaudreau.

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20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, rookies Matt Boldy and Vasily Podkolzin are surging late in the season, plus unexpected value from Dmitry Orlov, Gustav Forsling, Ross Colton, Artturi Lehkonen, and Frederick Gaudreau.

VANCOUVER, BC - APRIL 12: Vancouver Canucks right wing Vasily Podkolzin (92) waits for a face-off during their NHL game against the Vegas Golden Knights at Rogers Arena on April 12, 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#1 When Matt Boldy joined the Minnesota Wild this season, after recovering from a broken ankle suffered in the preseason, he fit into the lineup instantly, scoring 14 points (7 G, 7 A) in his first 13 games. After a dip in production, he is heating up again, currently on a nine-game point streak, during which he has 12 points (3 G, 9 A). He leads rookies (minimum 10 games played) with 0.86 points per game, ahead of Michael Bunting (0.81), Trevor Zegras (0.80), Lucas Raymond (0.72), and Anton Lundell (0.69).

#2 While Canucks winger Vasily Podkolzin has shown flashes of talent during his rookie season, late season injuries have opened the door to more playing time and Podkolzin has been able to rise to the challenge. With the Canucks making a desperate bid for a playoff berth, Podkolzin has produced eight points (4 G, 4 A) while averaging nearly 17 minutes of ice time per game in his past seven games.

#3 Veteran Capitals defenseman Dmitry Orlov has generally been a very good player though one with mostly deep league fantasy appeal for most of his career. He has elevated his production this season, though, and six points (2 G, 4 A) in his past five games has lifted Orlov to career highs of 12 goals and 35 points. His 31 even-strength points is tied for 21st in the league among defensemen.

#4 There are benefits to playing on the highest scoring team in a generation and Florida Panthers defenseman Gustav Forsling is reaping some of those rewards. Even after a quiet game against Detroit Thursday, Forsling has produced 11 points (7 G, 4 A) and 38 shots on goal in his past 11 games, giving him 36 points for the season; not a bad jump for a player whose previous career high was 17 points in 43 games last season.

#5 Even as the Anaheim Ducks have faded down the stretch, veteran defenseman Cam Fowler has delivered eight points (2 G, 6 A) in his past nine games, giving him a career high 42 points. He has been handling a heavy load on the Ducks blueline, averaging 24:59 time on ice per game since the All-Star break.

#6 When the Tampa Bay Lightning turned over their entire third line in the offseason, there was naturally an expectation that Ross Colton would see an expanded role following a solid showing in a limited role as a rookie last season. While Colton has seen more ice time, he is still averaging less than 13 minutes of ice time per game and after a three-point night against Toronto on Thursday, Colton has 11 points (9 G, 2 A) and 31 shots on goal in the past 11 games. Among players that have played at least 300 5v5 minutes, Colton ranks seventh with 1.42 goals per 60 minutes.

#7 Ahead of Colton in 5v5 goals per 60 minutes are Auston Matthews (1.98), Filip Forsberg (1.73), Vladimir Tarasenko (1.64), Max Pacioretty (1.51), Andrew Mangiapane (1.47), and Ryan Hartman (1.42). Rounding out the Top 10 are Nathan MacKinnon (1.41), Roope Hintz (1.40), and Matt Boldy (1.39).

#8 A lot of attention around the Buffalo Sabres has been focused on the top line, and deservedly so, but the supporting cast is doing its part as the Sabres have been winning more down the stretch. Winger Victor Olofsson has notably contributed 17 points (8 G, 9 A) and 33 shots on goal in his past 13 games, lifting him to 47 points (20 G, 27 A) in 69 games.

#9 Injuries have hindered the production of Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Erik Cernak this season, so he has not lived up to my Fantasy All-Star billing in the preseason, but he is contributing enough to have some late-season waiver wire appeal. Cernak has recorded an assist in four straight games and has racked up 38 hits and 18 blocked shots in 11 games this month.

#10 This has hardly been an ideal season for him and it’s looking like the playoffs could be slipping away from the Vegas Golden Knights, but center William Karlsson has put up 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 29 shots on goal in his past 11 games. It is wild that the one-time 43-goal scorer has just 11 goals in 63 games this season, but a lot of that difference can be attributed to shooting percentage – 8.8% this season compared to 24.3% in 2017-2018, the inaugural season of the Golden Knights.

#11 Robert Thomas scored his 20th goal of the season Thursday at San Jose, making him the eighth 20 goal scorer on the Blues, joining Tarasenko, Pavel Buchnevich, David Perron, Jordan Kyrou, Ivan Barbashev, Brayden Schenn, and Brandon Saad. Colorado ranks second, with seven 20-goal scorers. Montreal (Nick Suzuki) and Seattle (Jared McCann) each have one 20-goal scorer.

#12 The Colorado Avalanche resurrected the career of winger Valeri Nichushkin, who had zero goals in 57 games in 2018-2019, his last season with the Dallas Stars. After a couple of seasons of establishing that he is an elite checking winger, Nichushkin is up to 22 goals in 58 games this season. To some degree, the Avs might think that they can get a similar result from Artturi Lehkonen, an excellent checking winger with some trouble finishing when he was with Montreal. With some injuries in Colorado, Lehkonen has stepped up, tallying six points (3 G, 3 A) with 16 shots on goal in the past five games. That gives Lehkonen a career high of 36 points in 69 games.

#13 The Minnesota Wild signed center Frederick Gaudreau as a free agent last summer, after he had put up a career high 10 points in 19 games for Pittsburgh. Through the end of January, Gaudreau had contributed 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 34 games but since then he has produced 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 37 games, making the most of his opportunity to play with Boldy and Kevin Fiala. When Gaudreau and Boldy are on the ice at 5v5, the Wild are outscoring opponents 32-15.

#14 Los Angeles Kings center Phillip Danault has made a major difference since joining the team as a free agent last summer. Not only has Danault provided his expected strong defensive play, but he has picked up his offensive production, too. Danault is on a five-game goal-scoring streak and has 27 points (16 G, 11 A) in 33 games since the beginning of February.

#15 Although this has been an uneven season for Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington, opening the door for Ville Husso to emerge as the starter, Binnington has been better recently. In his past four starts, he has a .944 save percentage, which might offer a little more reason for St. Louis to hope that they have two viable options in goal down the stretch and into the playoffs.

#16 It appears that the best option in net for the Vegas Golden Knights right now is Logan Thompson, the 25-year-old rookie who has a .920 save percentage in 15 games this season. Robin Lehner does not appear to be entirely healthy and his .907 save percentage this season would be his lowest since the 2014-2015 season.

#17 The Vegas Golden Knights were obviously in a state of desperation when they pulled captain Mark Stone off of LTIR, but Stone has not been himself since returning, failing to record a point and managing nine shots on goal in five games. With the Golden Knights scrambling in an effort to earn a playoff spot, they don’t just need Stone to play, they need him to produce, but if his back is still causing him problems, that might not be in the cards.

#18 Although the wins are not coming easily since his move to San Jose, goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen is making the most of his opportunity to play more regularly. In his past five appearances, Kahkonen has posted a .940 save percentage and this late-season audition is a good chance for him to stake his claim to a potential starting role next season.

#19 Lightning center Brayden Point is dealing with a lower-body injury but even before he was sidelined, Point had managed zero goals and one assist in his last eight games. Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said that he hopes Point will be available by the weekend, but time is running out for Point to be a factor for fantasy managers at the end of the regular season.

#20 A handful of notable forwards that have faded since the All-Star break:

Nashville’s Luke Kunin, who does add some fantasy value with his physical play, has just four points (3 G, 1 A) in 31 games since the break.

Dallas Stars winger Alexander Radulov has faded from the lineup, now a healthy scratch after managing seven points (2 G, 5 A) in 32 games since the All-Star break.

There was a time earlier in the season that the Penguins were expecting Kasperi Kapanen to fill a top-six role and it has not worked out. Like Radulov, Kapanen is now a healthy scratch after putting up seven points (2 G, 5 A) in his past 35 games.

Going into the All-Star break, Los Angeles Kings left winger Alex Iafallo had put up 14 goals and 28 points in 45 games. Since then, just eight points (2 G, 6 A) in 32 games even though he is still getting more than 18 minutes of ice time per game.

Injuries may be catching up to Capitals right winger T.J. Oshie, who has played in 39 of Washington’s 77 games this season. In his past 11 games, Oshie has just three points (2 G, 1 A).

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

 

 

 

 

 

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CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Jake DeBrusk’s surprising emergence, Andrew Copp, Josh Anderson, Nico Hischier, and more. https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-jake-debrusks-surprising-emergence-andrew-copp-josh-anderson-nico-hischier-more/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-jake-debrusks-surprising-emergence-andrew-copp-josh-anderson-nico-hischier-more/#respond Fri, 04 Mar 2022 15:40:49 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=175439 Read More... from CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Jake DeBrusk’s surprising emergence, Andrew Copp, Josh Anderson, Nico Hischier, and more.

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Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Jake DeBrusk’s surprising emergence, Andrew Copp, Josh Anderson, Nico Hischier, and more.

OTTAWA, ON - FEBRUARY 19: Boston Bruins Left Wing Jake DeBrusk (74) skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Boston Bruins on February 19, 2022 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Early in the season, Boston Bruins winger Jake DeBrusk seemed lost and, seeking a fresh start, requested a trade. He did not get the trade and now has landed a plum role playing on the right wing of the top line alongside Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. DeBrusk is delivering results, too, putting up nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 22 shots on goal in the past seven games.

#2 One of the players getting a lot of buzz as the NHL Trade Deadline approaches, Winnipeg Jets forward Andrew Copp recently returned from injury and has produced 30 points (13 G, 17 A) in 48 games. He has also generated a career high 2.75 shots on goal per game and that offensive activity, paired with Copp’s ability to play just about anywhere in the lineup – center, wing, scoring line, checking role – explains why the pending unrestricted free agent is drawing a lot of trade interest. For fantasy managers, it might be worth a speculative add of Copp now, before he lands in a new home where his offensive upside could get a boost.

#3 Sticking with Winnipeg, Jets center Adam Lowry is offering enough offense recently to have some fantasy appeal. In the past seven games, Lowry has six points (4 G, 2 A) and he has put up 157 hits in 54 games so if there is any kind of adequate scoring contributions, Lowry’s hit totals could make him appealing in deep leagues.

#4 Montreal Canadiens right winger Josh Anderson recorded a hat trick in Winnipeg Monday, giving the power horse seven points (6 G, 1 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past seven games. There has been some discussion about whether the soon-to-be-rebuilding Canadiens would move Anderson but if he is scoring, there is likely a spot for him in the Montreal lineup because his physical play serves as a strong complement to linemates Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.

#5 Columbus Blue Jackets right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand quietly goes about his business and, with nine points (6 G, 3 A) and 27 shots on goal in the past 11 games, Bjorkstrand is up to 18 goals in 52 games. For fantasy managers, Bjorkstrand adds value with his physical play, delivering 59 hits in 52 games. His career high is 64 hits in 82 games during the 2017-2018 season, so it seems very likely that Bjorkstrand will surpass that number while scoring 25+ goals by season’s end.

#6 While Jack Hughes gets more of the spotlight in New Jersey, Nico Hischier is giving the Devils another scoring option in the middle of the ice. In his past nine games, the Devils captain has produced 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 23 shots on goal, thriving on a line with Pavel Zacha and Jesper Bratt.

#7 Devils rookie Dawson Mercer has recently been moved to right wing on the top line, skating with Jack Hughes and Yegor Sharangovich. Mercer has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past eight games. That shot total is rather low, but Mercer is now tied with Nashville Predators winger Tanner Jeannot for sixth in rookie scoring with 32 points.

#8 A player for deep league managers to keep an eye on down the stretch could be Ottawa Senators center Colin White, who had missed most of this season after suffering a shoulder injury in the preseason. In his first three games after recovering from surgery, White has a couple of points but also has 12 shots on goal and has a role on Ottawa’s second power play unit.

#9 Anaheim Ducks veteran Adam Henrique is heating up, scoring six points (4 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal in the past five games. Skating on a line with Ryan Getzlaf and Troy Terry, the five-time 20-goal scorer is in a decent spot to provide offense for Anaheim.

#10 A four-point night against Toronto last Saturday lifted Detroit Red Wings defenseman Filip Hronek to 12 points (2 G, 10 A) in his past 17 games. With 28 points in 50 games, Hronek is now scoring at a career-best per-game rate (0.56 points per game).

#11 It is easy for rookie defensemen to get overlooked, especially if they are not Moritz Seider of the Detroit Red Wings, because Seider is a leading contender for the Calder Trophy. However, there are other freshman defensemen that are contributing offensively, too. Anaheim’s Jamie Drysdale (3 G, 20 A in 56 GP), Nashville’s Alexandre Carrier (2 G, 18 A in 49 GP), Los Angeles’ Sean Durzi (2 G, 13 A in 37 GP), and Toronto’s Timothy Liljegren (1 G, 10 A in 37 GP) are chipping in. Colorado’s Bowen Byram (5 G, 6 A in 18 GP) was impressive before his season was derailed by concussions. Arizona’s J.J. Moser (3 G, 7 A in 27 GP) has had positive early results, too.

#12 Although he does not score nearly as much as he did during the seasons when he quarterbacked the Buffalo Sabres power play, Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is a category monster. Since returning from the December schedule pause, Ristolainen has 81 hits in 20 games. The only defensemen with a higher hits-per-game average since the pause are Radko Gudas and Luke Schenn.

#13 Looking for a fresh start in Arizona, after a terrible start to the season in Toronto, Coyotes left winger Nick Ritchie has two points (1 G, 1 A), seven shots on goal and 12 hits in his first three games for the Coyotes. No need to race to the fantasy waiver wire for him just yet but Arizona should be invested in Ritchie having a role on their team next season so they might give him a good opportunity to play an important role down the stretch.

#14 With 14 goals in 53 games, Arizona Coyotes left winger Lawson Crouse is one away from matching his career high. He is also one of seven forwards to have more than 10 goals and more than 150 hits. The others are Nashville’s Tanner Jeannot, Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk, Washington’s Garnet Hathaway, Nashville’s Luke Kunin, Washington’s Tom Wilson, and Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno.

#15 In the history of the National Hockey League, there have been five seasons in which a forward has had less than five goals and more than 30 assists. One of those seasons is happening right now, as Blue Jackets winger Jakub Voracek has just two goals to go with 38 assists. That ratio is the highest of assists-to-goals for a forward ever (minimum 20 assists), surpassing Henrik Sedin’s 2017-2018 season when he had three goals and 47 assists.

#16 While the Boston Bruins have spent much of this season seeking a second line center to replace the departed David Krejci, they might have stumbled onto something recently with Erik Haula. The veteran forward has been skating between Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak and is on a five-game point streak, during which he has contributed seven points (2 G, 5 A).

#17 In his sixth NHL season, St. Louis Blues forward Ivan Barbashev has erupted, setting career highs in goals (17) and points (41). He has been a useful depth player for the Blues prior to this season but Barbashev’s ice time is up more than three-and-a-half minutes per game from last season and he has responded to the bigger role by producing. While Barbashev is not likely to keep scoring on 20.5% of his shots over the long haul, he also offers added fantasy value with 89 hits in 52 games.

#18 When looking at Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals for individual skaters, there are a dozen players that have exceeded their expected goals by more than six. That list includes Boston’s David Pastrnak, Columbus’ Patrik Laine, Nashville’s Filip Forsberg, Colorado’s Gabriel Landeskog, St. Louis’ Brayden Schenn, Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Buffalo’s Tage Thompson, Toronto’s Auston Matthews, New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt, St. Louis’ Jordan Kyrou, Detroit’s Dylan Larkin, and the Rangers’ Mika Zibanejad. Some of these players are elite finishers, so they should be expected to outscore the expected goals model, but they also might be due for some statistical regression, too.

#19 On the other hand, there are some notable forwards that are well below their individual expected goals. That group includes Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk, Toronto’s John Tavares, Boston’s Patrice Bergeron, Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher, Arizona’s Phil Kessel, Los Angeles’ Trevor Moore, Seattle’s Jordan Eberle, Vancouver’s Nils Hoglander, Calgary’s Mikael Backlund, as well as Edmonton’s Jesse Puljujarvi and Warren Foegele.

#20 At this stage of the season it can be difficult to find goaltending value on the fantasy waiver wire, but there are some backups worth keeping on your radar. Since the December schedule pause, Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (.947 SV%), Washington’s Vitek Vanecek (.937 SV%), St. Louis’ Ville Husso (.934 SV%), Ottawa’s Anton Forsberg (.930 SV%), Colorado’s Pavel Francouz (.926 SV%), the Islanders’ Semyon Varlamov (.923 SV%), and Minnesota’s Kaapo Kahkonen (.923 SV%) have all had positive results. Some, like Swayman, might be taking the starting role but most are still trying to carve out any kind of bigger role with their respective teams.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

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CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Rising young stars like Tim Stutzle, Tage Thompson, Matt Boldy, and Jesper Bratt are making their mark, plus goaltenders that are challenging for more playing time as the season heads into the second half. https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-rising-young-stars-tim-stutzle-tage-thompson-matt-boldy-jesper-bratt-making-mark-goaltenders-challenging-playing-time-season-heads-half/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-rising-young-stars-tim-stutzle-tage-thompson-matt-boldy-jesper-bratt-making-mark-goaltenders-challenging-playing-time-season-heads-half/#respond Fri, 28 Jan 2022 13:49:02 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=175109 Read More... from CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Rising young stars like Tim Stutzle, Tage Thompson, Matt Boldy, and Jesper Bratt are making their mark, plus goaltenders that are challenging for more playing time as the season heads into the second half.

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Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, rising young stars like Tim Stutzle, Tage Thompson, Matt Boldy, and Jesper Bratt are making their mark, plus goaltenders that are challenging for more playing time as the season heads into the second half.

OTTAWA, ON - MARCH 22: Ottawa Senators Left Wing Tim Stutzle (18) skates during the first period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Calgary Flames on March 22, 2021 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Second year Ottawa Senators center Tim Stutzle had some early struggles in terms of production, coming up with just eight points (1 G, 7 A) in the first 21 games, but even during that slump, he would show flashes of potential. Well, the production is starting to come now for Stutzle, who has moved to centre, and he has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 38 shots on goal in his past 15 games. With Drake Batherson and Josh Norris injured, the Sens will need Stutzle’s production even more.

#2 It is starting to look like the St. Louis Blues have something of a goaltending controversy on their hands, as Ville Husso has been playing so well that he is starting to take time away from Jordan Binnington. After Thursday’s win against Calgary, Husso has started four of the past five games for the Blues and his save percentage is up to .944 in 14 games this season. That is unsustainably high but when a goaltender is playing that well, he deserves the opportunity to play to find out just how sustainable his performance might be.

#3 While pleasant surprises can get lost on a losing team, there is fantasy value to be uncovered in some of those situations. Buffalo Sabres center Tage Thompson was a big part of the trade that sent Ryan O’Reilly to the Blues, but it has taken some time for the 6-foot-7 forward to make his mark in the NHL. In his past nine games, Thompson has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 29 shots on goal, giving him 28 points (14 G, 14 A) in 39 games this season and he now looks like a core piece in the Sabres’ rebuild.

#4 The Pittsburgh Penguins signed 37-year-old Jeff Carter to a two-year contract extension, and he earned it. In his past 17 games, Carter has delivered 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 48 shots on goal. When Carter was winding up his time in Los Angeles, he scored on just 8.0% of his shots in his last two-plus seasons with the Kings, a span of 176 games. In 51 games since joining the Penguins, Carter has scored on 13.9% of his shots. When the percentages change to that degree, the whole perception of a player can shift, too.

#5 Although he can get overshadowed by the stars in Tampa Bay, Lightning center Anthony Cirelli is enjoying a strong bounce-back season after he faded badly in the second half of last season. Cirelli has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal in the past seven games, giving him 27 points (12 G, 15 A) in 39 games while logging career-high ice time of 19:36 per game.

CHICAGO, IL - JANUARY 21: Chicago Blackhawks Center Dylan Strome (17) and Minnesota Wild Left Wing Matt Boldy (12) skate in action during a game between the Minnesota Wild and the Chicago Blackhawks on January 21, 2022 at the United Center in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

#6 We covered Minnesota Wild rookie winger Matt Boldy when he was first called up from the AHL, but not enough fantasy managers have been paying attention because he is still widely available. The 20-year-old has produced six points (3 G, 3 A) with 18 shots on goal in seven games and has played more than 17 minutes in five of those games. The opportunity is there in Minnesota for Boldy to keep putting up points especially since he’s getting time on the Wild’s first power play unit.

#7 It has not been an easy season for Chicago Blackhawks center Dylan Strome, who has had spotty playing time, been a healthy scratch, and seems destined for a trade out of the Windy City, but Strome has been scoring more lately and that can’t hurt his marketability. After a hat trick at Detroit on Wednesday, Strome has nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 15 shots on goal in his past eight games.

#8 For deep league value, consider Nashville Predators winger Luke Kunin, who supplements his offense – 5 G, 1 A in the past 10 GP – with a decent shot rate (24 shots on goal in the past 10 games) and an elite hit rate (32 hits in those 10 games). It’s enough to give him fantasy appeal when his pure offensive production might not be enough to get there.

#9 Skating on Tim Stutzle’s wing has worked well for speedy Ottawa Senators winger Alex Formenton, who has gone from fourth liner to productive scorer in the blink of an eye. Formenton has 14 points (5 G, 9 A) and 35 shots on goal in the past 14 games, playing more than 15 minutes per game in the process.

#10 It is not yet to the point of a goaltending controversy in Colorado, but Avalanche netminder Pavel Francouz is playing well enough that he might force his way into a bigger role if Darcy Kuemper does not improve (or if the Avs trade for another goaltender). Francouz missed all of last season and the start of this season but in seven games played he does have a .932 save percentage, and he is coming off back-to-back shutouts. The Avalanche are enough of a powerhouse that whoever is getting the chance to play in net for them is going to provide fantasy value.

#11 If I told you that there are two New Jersey Devis forwards averaging a point per game this season, Jack Hughes would probably be an easy enough pick for one of the players, but how long would it be before you guess Jesper Bratt? The 23-year-old has put up 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in the past 10 games and has a career-high 39 points in 39 games.

#12 Los Angeles Kings winger Adrian Kempe has hit a career high with 18 goals in 41 games. He is scoring on a career high 14.8% of his shots but that is not an outrageous percentage and, importantly, Kempe is generating shots on goal. After putting up 2.27 shots on goal per game last season, Kempe is up to 2.98 shots on goal per game this season. He is skating on the Kings’ top line and getting first-unit power play time, so Kempe is in a good spot to maintain that level of production.

#13 Demoted to the American Hockey League earlier in the season, Ottawa Senators goaltender Matt Murray is showing some positive signs recently. Tread carefully, because Murray’s recent track record is not great, but he does have a .937 save percentage in his past five starts and fantasy managers that need goaltending at this stage of the season might need to consider him.

#14 After posting a career-low save percentage of .889 last season, Dallas Stars goaltender Braden Holtby is delivering a strong season in Dallas. Holtby has a .917 save percentage in 21 games this season, which would be his highest save percentage in a season since 2016-2017. As long as the Stars are in playoff contention, Holtby probably stays in a tandem with Jake Oettinger, but if the Stars lose ground, Holtby might draw some interest in the trade market.

#15 It has obviously been a terrible season for the Montreal Canadiens, but the Habs’ struggles do present an opportunity to grab undervalued assets. Veteran winger Tyler Toffoli started slowly this season and has landed on the waiver wire in many fantasy leagues as a result but is working his way out of it. In the past 13 games, Toffoli has contributed 13 points (4 G, 9 A) and 34 shots on goal.

#16 Although his point production ebbs and flows, Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard continues to offer fantasy value because of his ability to get the puck to the net. In the past nine games, Bouchard has just three points (2 G, 1 A) but he also has 24 shots on goal in that time and has played more than 23 minutes in six of those nine games.

#17 Second-year Chicago Blackhawks winger Brandon Hagel is playing his way into fantasy relevance. He has moved up the Chicago depth chart to play with Patrick Kane and Dylan Strome, and Hagel has scored six points (3 G, 3 A) in the past seven games, playing more than 18 minutes in each of those seven games.

#18 According to Natural Stat Trick, the forwards with the highest rate of individual expected goals in all situations this season (ixG/60, minimum 200 minutes) are: Matthew Tkachuk (1.59), Sebastian Aho (1.59), John Tavares (1.54), Andrei Svechnikov (1.50), Sam Bennett (1.45), Timo Meier (1.44), Connor McDavid (1.42), Max Pacioretty (1.42), Auston Matthews (1.42), and Chris Kreider (1.41).

#19 Defensemen with the highest rate of individual expected goals in all situations (ixG/60, minimum 200 minutes): Dougie Hamilton (0.61), Roman Josi (0.46), Aaron Ekblad (0.42), Cale Makar (0.42), Victor Hedman (0.42), Zach Werenski (0.42), Adam Boqvist (0.41), Shea Theodore (0.41), Darnell Nurse (0.41), and Damon Severson (0.41).

#20 As was rumored, the Edmonton Oilers signed left winger Evander Kane to a one-year contract. The Oilers are desperate to make the playoffs and could present a fantastic opportunity for Kane. Throughout his career, Kane has been an elite shot generator and has scored more than 25 goals in a season five times. If he ends up with an opportunity to play alongside Connor McDavid, that could lift Kane to new heights offensively. Kane has not played in the NHL this season but did have eight points (2 G, 6 A) in five AHL games.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Oilers power play in a league of its own – Sillinger, Terry, Mangiapane, Getzlaf and more https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-oilers-power-play-league-sillinger-terry-mangiapane-getzlaf/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-oilers-power-play-league-sillinger-terry-mangiapane-getzlaf/#respond Thu, 04 Nov 2021 14:51:31 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=172929 Read More... from CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Oilers power play in a league of its own – Sillinger, Terry, Mangiapane, Getzlaf and more

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Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, the Oilers power play is in a league of its own, Cole Sillinger, Troy Terry, Andrew Mangiapane, and Ryan Getzlaf are among the players off to encouraging starts to the season.

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 18: Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) in action in the third period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Winnipeg Jets on March 18, 2021 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The Edmonton Oilers power play is wrecking the league. This is not new, as the Oilers have the most productive 5-on-4 results across the past three seasons, scoring 9.45 goals per 60 minutes. This season they are scoring 19.03 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-4 play. The St. Louis Blues (16.62) are the only other team scoring more than 12 goals per 60 during 5-on-4 play. This is unsustainably ridiculous but when it has already been established as the league’s best power play, they are probably going to continue to put up great results.

#2 Among those to play at least 10 minutes during 5-on-4 play this season (it’s early!), Connor McDavid leads the way with 16.68 points/60. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13.39) is seventh. Zach Hyman (12.54) is ninth. Leon Draisaitl is all the way down at 20th (10.98). Even if these early results are unsustainably great, the prolific nature of the Edmonton power play does bode well for players like Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman.

#3 Hyman, in particular, is reaping early rewards from his role on the Oilers power play. He has 6.70 individual expected goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-4 play, which is far and away the best rate in the league. The rest of the top five includes: Matthew Tkachuk (3.87), Leon Draisaitl (3.77), Reilly Smith (3.77), and Josh Norris (3.76). Connor McDavid is sixth (3.63).

#4 The job just keeps getting more challenging in Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby and Brian Dumoulin have landed in Covid-19 protocol after Crosby had played just one game following offseason wrist surgery. A player to watch in Pittsburgh could be rookie Drew O’Connor, who has five points (3 G, 2 A) in seven games but ranks fourth in points/60 (4.30) and 19th in shots/60 (12.05). That is a super small sample for a player who does not have an illustrious track record as a scorer, but O’Connor did produce 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 20 AHL games last season during his first pro campaign, so he may have at least a little offensive upside.

#5 Columbus Blue Jackets rookie centre Cole Sillinger had a goal and an assist in his first eight NHL games then put up two goals and an assist in Wednesday’s overtime win against Colorado. One reason to be intrigued by Sillinger’s ability to generate offense? Among the 212 forwards that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, Sillinger ranks fifth with 13.95 shots/60, behind Blake Coleman (16.76), Vladimir Tarasenko (14.76), Jeff Skinner (14.35), and Logan O’Connor (14.31).

#6 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry failed to record a point in Anaheim’s first game of the season. In the nine games since then, Terry has 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 21 shots on goal, recording a point in each of those nine games. He has already tied his career high with seven goals, the same total he had last season in 48 games. Terry has also played more than 21 minutes in two of the past three games, so his production is getting rewarded.

VANCOUVER, BC - MAY 18: Calgary Flames left wing Andrew Mangiapane (88) skates with the puck during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on May 18, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#7 With seven goals in nine games this season, Calgary Flames winger Andrew Mangiapane has scored 25 goals in 65 games since the start of last season, shooting a lofty 22.5%. That shooting percentage is not likely to last but since the start of last season there have been 323 forwards to play at least 500 5-on-5 minutes. From that group, Mangiapane ranks fifth with 1.46 goals/60, behind Auston Matthews (1.83), Jakub Vrana (1.68), Daniel Sprong (1.56), and Brandon Saad (1.46).

#8 Speaking of players with unsustainably high shooting percentages, Tampa Bay’s Alex Killorn has eight points (5 G, 3 A) during a five-game point streak. He now has seven goals on 18 shots this season, good for a 38.9% shooting percentage. Killorn led the league in shooting percentage in 2019-2020 when he scored on 20.0% of his shots but he has been under 12.5% in every other season of his career. This isn’t to suggest dropping Killorn, as he has established a consistent level of production and has a significant role on the Lightning power play, but the goal-scoring pace should slow down.

#9 Ryan Getzlaf became the Anaheim Ducks all-time leading scorer this week, surpassing Teemu Selanne, and the 36-year-old centre has been very productive, with 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 11 games but that does not cover all of Getzlaf’s fantasy appeal. He also has 21 hits, 11 blocked shots and, often a reluctant shooter, he has 30 shots on goal. His 2.73 shots per game would rank as the second highest per-game shot rate of his career. It’s early, but it looks like a pretty good bounce-back season after Getzlaf managed 17 points (5 G, 12 A) in 48 games last season.

#10 Minnesota Wild left winger Kirill Kaprizov was in a goal-scoring slump to start the season but scored in overtime against Ottawa Tuesday to get on the board. He has eight points (1 G, 7 A) and 32 shots on goal in nine games and that shot rate was always the reason to expect Kaprizov to snap out of it. Last season started differently for him. Kaprizov had 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in his first 18 games but only had 32 shots. His shot rate picked up as the season progressed and now, he is good for three-plus per game on average.

#11 Minnesota’s Kevin Fiala is also off to a relatively mediocre start, with five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games but he has 27 shots on goal, and he has only had more than three shots on goal per game once in his career – that was last season. As long as the shots are there, it’s fair to expect the goals and points to follow.

#12 For those seeking peripheral statistical value, beyond goals and assists, there are four players with at least two shots on goal and four hits per game: Darnell Nurse, Brady Tkachuk, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Radko Gudas. Nurse and Tkachuk would have been relatively early picks because they are productive enough offensively, too. Jaskin has not found the scoresheet yet for Arizona but is not shy about playing the body, while Gudas has consistently generated shots and hits for much of his career.

#13 A group of defensemen offering additional peripheral stats value, those averaging at least two shots on goal, two hits and two blocked shots per game: Esa Lindell, Jacob Trouba, Zach Whitecloud, and Matt Dumba. Whitecloud is on IR and Dumba is rostered in 80% of Yahoo leagues, but Trouba (52%) and Lindell (23%) are more readily available to provide sneaky value on the blueline.

#14 Among 212 forwards that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ William Nylander (3.95) and Auston Matthews (3.77) rank first and third in terms of on-ice expected goals. Carolina’s Andrei Svechnikov is second (3.83) and Jordan Staal (3.54) is fourth. St. Louis’ Robert Thomas (3.50), somewhat surprisingly, rounds out the top five. That might suggest that it’s time to buy on the Maple Leafs’ top line because, so far, their production has not been outstanding. But if the chances have been there, the goals will probably be coming soon.

#15 Nylander and Matthews are now playing with Michael Bunting, who is the league leader in individual expected goals during 5-on-5 play (1.41), followed by Dylan Larkin (1.32), Jeff Skinner (1.25), Alex Iafallo (1.23), and Vladimir Tarasenko (1.20). Auston Matthews and Andrei Svechnikov are sixth and seventh, respectively.

#16 Some notable forwards with the lowest on-ice expected goals: Mike Hoffman (1.22), Kevin Labanc (1.29), Dominik Kubalik (1.40), Luke Kunin (1.42), and Nick Suzuki (1.57). It is tough to create sustainable offence with such low rates of expected goals during 5-on-5 play. Given expectations, Suzuki might be the most worrying in that low-rent statistical neighbourhood.

#17 Early in the season, the best goaltenders in terms of actual goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed in all situations are: Frederik Andersen, Sergei Bobrovsky, Igor Shesterkin, Jacob Markstrom, and Elvis Merzlikins. Every one of those goaltenders has had some previous success in the league but Andersen, Bobrovsky, and Markstrom are all coming off mediocre, at best, seasons in 2021. Who can figure out goaltenders from one year to the next?

#18 At the other end of the spectrum, the worst goaltenders in terms of actual goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed in all situations this season are: Carter Hutton, Kevin Lankinen, Marc-Andre Fleury, Darcy Kuemper, and Philipp Grubauer. Fleury won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender last season. Grubauer was a finalist. Kuemper has a .921 save percentage in 147 games since 2017-2018. It is early and small sample goaltending is about as volatile as it gets but goaltending remains a fickle and often unpredictable beast.

#19 Aside from the injured Drew Doughty and Ryan Ellis, the defenceman with the highest points per game this season is Carolina’s Tony DeAngelo, who has 10 points in nine games (1.11 ppg). He is just ahead of Roman Josi (1.10) and Adam Fox (1.10). Kevin Shattenkirk, Kris Letang, Aaron Ekblad, Torey Krug, and Victor Hedman are each at one point per game. Everything is coming up Carolina, it seems.

#20 The Montreal Canadiens sent rookie right winger Cole Caufield to the American Hockey League this week, after he started the season with no goals and one assist in 10 games. Caufield had 22 shots on goal. Last season, when he scored four goals in his first 10 games for the Habs, Caufield had 30 shots on goal, and he had 48 shots on goal in 20 playoff games, so the declining shot rate was one troubling sign. Not all of that would fall on Caufield but if he is not being put in position to generate three shots per game, he is probably not going to deliver the desired results. He will be back, likely after tearing up the AHL for a while.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

 

 

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CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS 4/8/21 – Rangers have turned into a scoring machine plus Vincent Trocheck, Andrew Copp, Brendan Gallagher, Dougie Hamilton, and more .. https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-4-8-21-rangers-turned-scoring-machine-vincent-trocheck-andrew-copp-brendan-gallagher-dougie-hamilton/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/cullen-20-fantasy-points-4-8-21-rangers-turned-scoring-machine-vincent-trocheck-andrew-copp-brendan-gallagher-dougie-hamilton/#respond Thu, 08 Apr 2021 16:58:56 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=168960 Read More... from CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS 4/8/21 – Rangers have turned into a scoring machine plus Vincent Trocheck, Andrew Copp, Brendan Gallagher, Dougie Hamilton, and more ..

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Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, the Rangers have turned into a scoring machine plus Vincent Trocheck, Andrew Copp, Brendan Gallagher, Dougie Hamilton, and more.

#1 Let’s start with some context. Since St. Patrick’s Day, the Colorado Avalanche have scored 4.46 goals per 60 minutes in all situations and even after getting stunned by Minnesota Wednesday the Avs are outscoring opponents by 1.98 goals per 60 minutes but I already wrote about the brilliance of the Avalanche a few weeks ago so no need to repeat that refrain right now.

NEWARK, NJ - MARCH 04: New York Rangers defenseman Adam Fox (23) skates during the National Hockey League game between the New Jersey Devils and the New York Rangers on March 4, 2021 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

#2 The New York Rangers have scored 4.39 goals per 60 minutes which ranks second behind the Avalanche, in that time and the Rangers are outscoring opponents by a league-best 2.06 goals per 60 minutes. The Pittsburgh Penguins (3.58) and Arizona Coyotes (3.51) are the only other teams scoring more than 3.50 goals per 60 minutes in that span so the Avalanche and Rangers are far ahead of the field. Some of the Rangers’ offensive prowess is due to their scoring eruptions against the Philadelphia Flyers, winning 9-0 and 8-3 against Philadelphia before winning 8-4 against the Pittsburgh Penguins Tuesday but it is unseemly to complain about how they have suddenly become the most explosive offense in the league.

#3 In those 11 games, the Rangers’ leading scorer is defenseman Adam Fox, who has 21 points (3 G, 18 A), ahead of Mika Zibanejad (10 G, 9 A), Artemi Panarin (6 G, 12 A), Ryan Strome (2 G, 14 A), and Pavel Buchnevich (7 G, 5 A). The Rangers as a team have scored on 15.2% of their shots in this span, which is a ridiculous and unsustainable rate.

#4 The good news for the Blueshirts is that they have some support in their own end of the rink. Since the start of last season, among goaltenders to play at least 25 games, the Ranges’ Igor Shesterkin ranks second with a .927 save percentage. Florida’s Chris Driedger ranks first, at .934. Third through fifth are: Jake Allen (.925), Darcy Kuemper (.923), and Tuukka Rask (.923).

#5 The bottom five for active goaltender save percentage since the start of last season, minimum 25 games: Matt Murray (.892), Devan Dubnyk (.893), Marcus Hogberg (.894), Carter Hutton (.894), and Malcolm Subban (.895).

SUNRISE, FL - FEBRUARY 27: Vincent Trocheck #16 of the Carolina Hurricanes prepares for a face-off against the Florida Panthers at the BB&T Center on February 27, 2021 in Sunrise, Florida. (Photo by Joel Auerbach/Icon Sportswire)

#6 He missed three weeks in the middle so he does not get official credit for a point streak, but Carolina Hurricanes center Vincent Trocheck has points in 11 straight games, accumulating 15 points (6 G, 9 A). On a per-game basis, the only skaters offering more fantasy value this season are a who’s who of the elite players in the game: Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, and Aleksander Barkov. That’s it, the whole list of skaters delivering more per-game fantasy value than Trocheck this season.

#7 Nashville Predators right winger Luke Kunin took a puck in the ear Tuesday against Detroit, which may leave his immediate status in doubt, but since returning from his last injury, Kunin has six points (2 G, 4 A) in six games and brings additional value with his physical play, recording 20 hits in his past six games.

#8 There was a time very early in the season when Winnipeg Jets forward Andrew Copp was one of the most popular additions in fantasy hockey. He had nine points in seven games and was skating on the Jets’ top line. But then Copp moved down the lineup and settled into a third-line role and, for a while, he was not scoring as much. But he has found a way to make it work and has 15 points (8 G, 7 A) in the past 15 games, including six points on the power play.

#9 For whatever flaws may be involved in the Montreal Canadiens roster construction, they sure made the most of the offseason, acquiring wingers Tyler Toffoli, Josh Anderson, and Corey Perry. The new trio of Habs forwards has scored 42 goals, more than any new threesome in the league this season. There is only one other contender that’s even close and that is Florida’s Carter Verhaeghe, Patric Hornqvist, and Alexander Wennberg, who have combined to score 40 goals.

#10 The injury to Brendan Gallagher is huge for the Canadiens. Among players to play at least 100 5-on-5 minutes this season, no one is on the ice for a higher rate of shot attempts than Gallagher’s 72.4 per 60 minutes.

#11 There have been just two lines to get a better share of shot attempts than Montreal’s line of Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault, and Brendan Gallagher, a trio that has controlled 63.0% of shot attempts during 5-on-5 play. The top two? Colorado’s Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mikko Rantanen (67.2%), and Boston’s Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak (63.8%). Montreal’s top line is also good for more than 69.0% of expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey, which ranks second behind only Florida’s top line of Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov, and Anthony Duclair.

#12 Last season, Carolina’s Dougie Hamilton was on his way to a Norris Trophy contending campaign before he suffered a broken leg and one of the features of Hamilton’s game was his elite ability to generate shots on goal – 3.6 per game in 2019-2020. In his first 27 games this season, Hamilton was not generating shots in the same way, down to 2.9 per game, which is still very good but not exceptional. The past three weeks have been different, though. Hamilton has 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in in the past 11 games and has put 50 shots on goal in those 11 games (4.6 per game) and that includes games with 11 and nine shots on goal.

#13 Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Alex Pietrangelo has one assist in five games since returning from injury but he does have 20 shots on goal and 15 blocked shots, numbers that make it easier to wait for his point production to return.

#14 Buffalo Sabres right winger Kyle Okposo had one assist in his first 18 games this season, which made it pretty easy to ignore him for fantasy purposes. But as the attrition on the Sabres roster knocks out players with injuries and, presumably, with trades before the deadline, there is a chance for Okposo to continue his recent surge in production which includes 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in his past 12 games.

#15 The New York Islanders acquired veteran center Travis Zajac and right winger Kyle Palmieri from the New Jersey Devils Wednesday. Zajac is a 35-year-old who has played more than 1,000 games in the National Hockey League and his 5-on-5 production this season, 2.44 points per 60, has been the best of his career and ranks 38th among skaters to play at least 200 5-on-5 minutes this season.

#16 Kyle Palmieri might be the more appealing trade acquisition, because he has scored 24 or more goals in five straight seasons, but this season has been a challenge for him. He has 1.20 points per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, the lowest rate of his career, save for his first 10-game audition in the 2010-2011 season. But, he also has not recorded a primary assist during 5-on-5 play this season, and his on-ice shooting percentage of 6.1% is a career-low. Those numbers could very easily bounce back and if Palmieri gets a prime scoring role with the Islanders, could still have a big finish to the season.

#17 Beware Ducks left winger Maxime Comtois, a young power forward who has shown some promise this season but his shot rates have also dried up and when the shots stop, quite often so will the points. In his past 13 games, Comtois has four points (2 G, 2 A) and 11 shots on goal. This after producing 19 points (9 G, 10 A) and 48 shots on goal in his first 26 games.

#18 A similar story goes with Washington Capitals left winger Jakub Vrana, who scored 10 goals in the first 24 games of the season but has now gone a dozen games without a goal. In those first 24 games, Vrana had more than 2.3 shots per game. In the past dozen games, he has managed 0.8 shots per game. Tough to score when you can’t even get pucks to the net.

#19 At this stage of the season, the big names on the blueline are long gone but there is still value to be found. The following vets are available in the majority of leagues: Chicago’s Connor Murphy, who has five assists, 29 hits and 29 blocked shots in the past eight games. Those peripheral stats matter, too. Veteran Arizona Coyotes defenseman Alex Goligoski has eight points (1 G, 7 A) and 15 blocked shots in the past seven games. Jared Spurgeon has doubled his season point totals, putting up six points (3 G, 3 A), in the past eight games.

#20 In the past month, the top scorers per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play (minimum 100 minutes) are not huge surprises: Aleksander Barkov (4.87), Artemi Panarin (4.68), and Connor McDavid (3.91). The next three, though, are a little more interesting: Ross Colton (3.88), Joonas Donskoi (3.69), and Pat Maroon (3.56). Sometimes there is value to be found in the supporting cast on powerhouse teams.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

 

 

 

 

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