Mark Jankowski – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Lafreniere, Doan, Garland, Joshua, Zellweger, Cirelli, Mantha plus much, much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 05 Apr 2024 16:10:31 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - FEBRUARY 22: New York Rangers left wing Alexis Lafreniere (13) skates with the puck during a game between the against the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils on February 22, 2024 at Prudential Center in the Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, with the NHL season winding down and fantasy titles on the line, a look at Alexis Lafreniere, Josh Doan, Conor Garland, Olen Zellweger, Anthony Cirelli and much, much more!

#1 There are challenges that come with being the first overall pick in the Draft and one of those is that if a player is not immediately successful, like Auston Matthews or Connor McDavid, there is a rush to describe the player as a bust and worry about what that player could possibly become. Throughout his first three seasons, Rangers winger Alexis Lafreniere was a middle six winger who could score a bit, but not nearly enough to warrant being the first pick overall in 2020. In his fourth season, the 22-year-old has emerged as the kind of player who may not be Matthews or McDavid, but at least has the production to warrant a first-line role. He has 15 points (8 G, 7 A) and 31 shots on goal in his past 11 games and Lafreniere has scored 24 of his 26 goals at even strength. His 24 even-strength goals is tied with Dallas Stars centre Wyatt Johnston for 17th and puts Lafreniere ahead of the likes of Kirill Kaprizov, Sebastian Aho, J.T. Miller, Elias Petttersson, Sam Reinhart, Leon Draisaitl, and McDavid.

#2 It is something out of a fairytale – maybe an obscure fairytale, but a fairytale nonetheless – for the son of a franchise legend to grow up in Arizona, play college hockey at Arizona State and then land in the NHL with the Coyotes. Josh Doan has also contributed five points (2 G, 3 A) and 12 shots on goal in his first four games, which might make him worth a flier if you need instant offence at this late stage of the season. His shot rate is intriguing and while Doan does not have the same physical presence as his father Shane, the younger Doan did have 46 points (26 G, 20 A) in 62 AHL games to earn his late season promotion to The Show.

#3 Vancouver Canucks winger Conor Garland has been a quality contributor in a supporting role, especially late in the season. In his past dozen games, Garland has chipped in 11 points (4 G, 7 A) with 34 shots on goal. He has hit 40 points for a third consecutive season in Vancouver, though his ice time has dropped to 14:19 per game, his lowest average time on ice since 2019-2020. In addition to his place on Vancouver’s top power play unit, Garland is skating on the Canucks’ second line, with J.T. Miller and Dakota Joshua. While Miller has obvious fantasy appeal, after years of high-level production, Joshua is showing that he can be more than a depth forward. He has missed time due to injury, but Joshua does have five points (3 G, 2 A) while playing more than 16 minutes per game in his past five games.

#4 The Anaheim Ducks have a strong crop of young defencemen in the organization and they are giving 20-year-old Olen Zellweger a good look down the stretch. He has contributed five points (1 G, 4 A) in his past six games, scoring his first NHL goal in the process. This is the start of what should be a productive career. Zellweger had 37 points (12 G, 25 A) in 44 AHL games, a monster of a first pro season, to earn his shot with the Ducks.

#5 Although he is known more for his defensive acumen, Tampa Bay Lightning centre Anthony Cirelli can contribute offensively, too. It certainly helps that he has Steven Stamkos and Brandon Hagel on his wings. Cirelli has seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 12 shots on goal in his past six games, giving him 43 points on the season, one off his career high, set in 2019-2020.

#6 After he was acquired from the Washington Capitals, towering winger Anthony Mantha managed a single point, a goal, with eight shots on goal in his first seven games for the Vegas Golden Knights. He has found his footing since that slow start, however, putting up seven points (1 G, 6 A) with 11 shots on goal in the past six games. Mantha fulfills a supporting role in Vegas, skating on a line with William Karlsson and Pavel Dorofeyev.

#7 When the Calgary Flames acquired winger Andrei Kuzmenko from the Vancouver Canucks earlier in the season, the hope was that the Flames could get Kuzmenko back to the form that saw him score 39 goals as a rookie last season. It has not been the smoothest process. He had eight points (5 G, 3 A) in his first 12 games for the Flames, followed by a six-game drought with zero points. He has seen his ice time tick up recently, skating on a line with Nazem Kadri and rookie Martin Pospisil, and has six points (2 G, 4 A) in his past three games.

#8 A valuable piayer in Vegas’ Stanley Cup run last season, Ivan Barbashev has had some ups and downs during this regular season. He does seem to be heating up, though, with six points (4 G, 2 A) in his past six games. He is one of 21 forwards to record at least 160 hits in each of the past two seasons and, of those 21, is one of just four to have produced more than 40 points in each of the past two seasons. Along with Barashev, that group includes Brady Tkachuk, J.T. Miller, and Vincent Trocheck.

#9 It has been a tale of two seasons for New Jersey Devils winger Timo Meier, who had just 18 points (9 G, 9 A) with 98 shots on goal in 34 games going into the All-Star break. Since then, Meier has racked up 30 points (16 G, 14 A) with 90 shots on goal in 29 games. Despite his slow start it is the third straight season in which Meier has tallied at least 25 goals.

#10 Injuries have limited Carolina Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen to just 14 starts this season, but he has 11 wins and a .927 save percentage in those games. Among goaltenders to appear in at least 10 games, the only one with a higher save percentage is Colorado’s Justus Annunen (.930).

#11 The assists may be few and far between, but in his past 16 games, Anaheim Ducks left winger Alex Killorn has buried nine goals (with one assist). This has not been a banner season for Killorn, who has 33 points (17 G, 16 A) in 57 games in his first campaign with the Ducks. He is skating with rookie Leo Carlsson and veteran winger Troy Terry, giving him a good chance to finish the season on the right note.

#12 Arizona Coyotes rookie Logan Cooley has had a strong rookie season, albeit in relative obscurity. With nine points (6 G, 3 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past nine games, including his first hat trick, Cooley now ranks second among rookie forwards with 39 points (17 G, 22 A), leaving him behind only Connor Bedard. Cooley is skating on a line with Lawson Crouse and Dylan Guenther.

#13 While Cooley is the second highest scoring rookie forward, the second highest scoring rookie overall is New Jersey Devils defenceman Luke Hughes. He has 10 points (1 G, 9 A) and 26 shots on goal in his past eight games to give him 43 points (9 G, 34 A) in 76 games. In the past decade, the list of rookie defencemen to have more than 43 points is: Moritz Seider, Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar, Rasmus Dahlin, Will Butcher, Zach Werenski, and Shayne Gostisbehere. Aside from Butcher, that is rather strong company that Hughes is keeping.

#14 There may be a correlation between Fabian Zetterlund playing more than 18 minutes per game and the San Jose Sharks getting buried on a nightly basis, but the 24-year-old winger is establishing his credentials as an NHL player. Over the past month, he has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) with 42 shots on goal in 15 games. He is skating on San Jose’s top line with Klim Kostin and Mikael Granlund. Zetterlund isn’t the only Sharks player getting plenty of reps for his development this season. William Eklund, the seventh pick in the 2021 Draft, has similarly averaged more than 18 minutes per game and is finishing with a flourish, contributing seven points (2 G, 5 A) in his past seven games.

#15 If fantasy managers need a late scoring boost, perhaps Winnipeg Jets right winger Gabriel Vilardi is a player to target. He didn’t produce any points in his first two games back in the lineup following a month-long absence due to an upper-body injury then an enlarged spleen, but then he erupted for a hat trick, with nine shots on goal, in Thursday’s win over Calgary. The 24-year-old has produced 33 points (19 G, 14 A) in 41 games in his first season for the Jets and while the injuries seem to be part of the package, there is no denying his ability to contribute when he is in the lineup.

#16 Buffalo Sabres left winger Jeff Skinner reached the 1,000-game milestone for his career, a tremendous accomplishment. He is also fading late in the season. Since scoring a hat trick in Seattle on March 18, Skinner has zero points and 15 shots on goal in seven games. He is playing 13 minutes per game and is currently skating on a line with Peyton Krebs and Lukas Rousek, which is not exactly the same as riding shotgun with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. This is the tenth season in which Skinner has scored at least 20 goals, and he has 357 goals in his career, but he may be one to avoid in the final few weeks of this campaign.

#17 While there has been plenty of focus in Philadelphia on the declining production, and healthy scratches, of captain Sean Couturier, who has just one assist and 18 shots on goal in his past 15 games, he is not the only Flyers forward whose offensive well has run dry. Joel Farabee has a career-high 21 goals and 49 points this season but has zero points in his past six games and has been dropped to the fourth line.

#18 Since the March 8 trade deadline, the leading scorer in terms of points per 60 minutes of five-on-five play is Mark Jankowski of the Nashville Predators, who has 11 points (5 G, 6 A) with 21 shots on goal in his past 11 games. Jankowski spent most of the season in the American Hockey League, where the 29-year-old put up 47 points (15 G, 32 A) in 40 games for Milwaukee, earning another look in the NHL. Jankowski’s 14 points in 26 games for the Predators is his most in an NHL season since 2018-2019. The rest of the five-on-five points per 60 leaders since the trade deadline (minimum 50 minutes): Josh Doan (4.52), Pavel Zacha (4.47), Auston Matthews (4.41), David Pastrnak (4.33), Connor McDavid (4.18), Artemi Panarin (4.07), John Tavares (3.91), Mattias Ekholm (3.91), and Nikita Kucherov (3.88). That is a fascinating mix of Hart Trophy candidates along with a rookie, Doan, and complementary players like Zacha, Ekholm, and Tavares.

#19 The most productive lines during five-on-five play this season (minimum 100 minutes), per Evolving Hockey: Owen Tippett-Morgan Frost-Travis Konecny (7.36 GF/60), Alex DeBrincat-Dylan Larkin-Patrick Kane (6.14), Danton Heinen-Pavel Zacha-David Pastrnak (6.06), J.T. Miller-Elias Pettersson-Brock Boeser (5.72), Zach Hyman-Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl (5.50), Warren Foegele-Leon Draisaitil-Ryan McLeod (5.27), Nikolaj Ehlers-Mark Scheifele-Gabriel Vilardi (5.04), Jason Robertson-Roope Hintz-Wyatt Johnston (4.95), J.J. Peterka-Dylan Cozens-Jack Quinn (4.91), and Jonathan Marchessault-Nicolas Roy-Ivan Barbashev (4.89). While there are some names that one might expect in that group, there are plenty of others there that are not exactly prime fantasy hockey draft picks, so offense can come from many places, especially in short spurts if a line is only together for a few weeks.

#20 Also per Evolving Hockey, here are the leaders in individual expected goals during five-on-four play (minimum 50 minutes), essentially, who is being put in position to score on the power play? Joel Eriksson Ek (4.35), Zach Hyman (4.10), John Tavares (3.97), Kyle Palmieri (3.76), Chris Kreider (3.69), Barrett Hayton (3.67), Gabriel Vilardi (3.46), Matthew Tkachuk (3.42), Sam Reinhart (3.38), and Shine Pinto (3.30). Columbus’ Alexander Nylander has only played 36 minutes at five-on-four, but has 4.50 ixG in that time, so he is getting great opportunities to score and while he has 10 goals in 18 games for Columbus, only two of those goals have been on the power play.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – NASHVILLE PREDATORS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 19:58:08 +0000

NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 19: Nashville Predators center Thomas Novak (82) is shown during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Edmonton Oilers, held on December 19, 2022, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

Review: The Predators have rarely been listed among the main contenders for the Stanley Cup in any given year, but they have managed to stay consistently competitive, making the playoffs for eight straight campaigns from 2014-15 through 2021-22. They nearly reached nine consecutive seasons but came just short with their 42-32-8 record last year. Juuse Saros deserves most of the credit for keeping Nashville close. He’s one of the most reliable goaltenders in the world, and he stayed strong in 2022-23, posting a 33-23-7 record, 2.69 GAA and .919 save percentage in 64 contests. Consider that Nashville ranked 28th in 5-on-5 expected goals against (199.01), suggesting the Predators were among the league’s worst teams defensively and would have consequently been easy to score against if not for some stellar netminding. Saros’ role was even more important because Nashville didn’t do much offensively. None of the Predators reached the 60-point mark, though it didn’t help that Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and especially Roman Josi missed meaningful chunks of the season. The silver lining is Saros is just 28, and the Predators have two more seasons left at a team-friendly $5 million cap hit, so there’s still time to build around him.

What’s Changed? Deciding major turnover was necessary, Predators GM Barry Trotz bought out Matt Duchene’s contract and traded Ryan Johansen to Colorado. Nashville leveraged that freed cap space to ink top-six forwards Ryan O'Reilly and Gustav Nyquist. They also added defensive defenseman Luke Schenn, which might make life a little easier on Saros.

What would success look like? The Predators could absolutely make it back into the playoffs, but their push needs to start with another great campaign from Saros. Assuming they have that, an injury-free year out of Josi would do a lot to make up the rest of the gap. Meanwhile, it will be the first full NHL campaign for forwards Thomas Novak, Luke Evangelista and Juuso Parssinen, who could combine to make Nashville a significantly better team offensively than they were in 2022-23.

What could go wrong? Whenever a team relies so much on a single player, as Nashville does with Saros, the nightmare scenario is always an injury to said player. Although Nashville does have a sufficient backup in Kevin Lankinen, but being forced to rely on him for an extended period would be far from ideal. It’s also not clear how much offensive help O’Reilly and Nyquist will be. Both had up-and-down campaigns last year, so if Nashville was hoping to swap Duchene and Johansen for safer bets, they may end up disappointed.

Top Breakout Candidate: After scoring 17 goals and 43 points in 51 games last season, Novak is perhaps too easy of a choice, so instead let’s focus on one of his projected linemates, Evangelista. The 21-year-old also had an encouraging, albeit much shorter, stint with Nashville in 2022-23, contributing seven goals and 15 points in 24 contests. Evangelista also excelled in the AHL with 41 points in 49 outings and turned pro with plenty of offensive upside. He’s a big part of why Nashville has reason for optimism about the long-term outlook of its forward core.

Forwards

Filip Forsberg - LW

Looking to follow up a fantastic 42-goal season, Forsberg started off a little slow with only two goals in the first month of the season. He hit his stride over the winter, scoring at a point-per-game pace in November and December before a concussion in early February sidelined him for the rest of the season. Streaky scoring isn’t out of the ordinary for Forsberg, as he is the type of player who will run hot, and he was on-pace to match his typical season totals before getting hurt. Talent eventually shows through with most players, and he is the type you can always count on to go on a scoring tear at some point. Terrific at generating offense on his own, Forsberg is one of the most creative shooters in the league. He can test goalies despite being covered or tricking defenders by passing at the very last second to set up a breakaway or a lay-up goal for his linemates. He had fantastic chemistry with Matt Duchene in 2022 for this reason and while they struggled to repeat that last year, Forsberg still found a way to get on the scoresheet with a revolving door of linemates. His 42-goal campaign might have been an aberration, but at the end of the day the Preds will be happy with what they get out of Forsberg.

Ryan O’Reilly - C

Nashville shook up their forward corps this summer, shipping off veterans Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen and bringing in Ryan O’Reilly as their new centerpiece. Whether you’re a contending team or navigating a rebuild, O’Reilly is a good player to build your forward group around. He can handle the big minutes and the tougher matchups, which will make life easier for the Tommy Novaks of the roster. Nashville’s blue line will also benefit from him, as he acts like a third defenseman with how deep he plays in the zone and how good he is at starting breakouts. This along with his strength in making plays on his backhand are his calling cards. He has also made the most out of playing with some of the scraps in the St. Louis’ forward corps, as the more talented players were moved to more scoring lines. Last year he formed an excellent checking line with Josh Leivo and Brandon Saad. O’Reilly is the type of player whose line will usually dominate territorially even if they aren’t scoring a lot of goals, so this bodes well for what he can do in Nashville. Very high floor, but a lower ceiling than there used to be with him.

Tommy Novak - C

The former Minnesota Gopher might have been the best player in the second half of the season that you’ve never heard of (unless you’re a Nashville fan or a fantasy hockey player). Known primarily as a playmaker and a pass-first player, the 17 goals in 50 games Novak scored last year was one fewer than his career total in four years at college and more than he scored in any season in the AHL. It wasn’t the “playing out of the string” type of production either, as Nashville was fighting for a playoff spot in the second half and three of Novak’s goals were scored in overtime. He showed signs that he could be a good player during his first cup of coffee with the Preds. He has excellent hands and was very good at making safe plays to keep offensive zone shifts going. What changed last year was that he really started poaching for more offense and began shooting more. Some of that is from getting endless breakaway opportunities but he also worked his way into the slot to create his own shot instead of reverting to the point or passing it off to someone else. At 26, this was probably Novak’s last chance to prove he belongs in the NHL and to say he proved that is an understatement.

Gustav Nyquist - LW

Every team needs a player or two like Nyquist, a decent scoring forward who isn’t a top-liner but can keep up with your big dogs if you need someone to fill-in. Nyquist has that Swiss-Army Knife toolset where he can do just enough to help everyone his line without being the main driver of it, not being the first one on pucks, but usually being in the right spot to receive a pass or setup a give-and-go. Uses his stick well in the defensive zone and was a regular on Columbus’ aggressive penalty kill for years, scoring seven shorthanded goals in three years with Columbus. Had no real consistent linemates with the Jackets last year and didn’t see any action with Minnesota until the playoffs where he played on a line with Ryan Hartman. Doesn’t have the shot or the game-breaking skill to be the driver on his line, or a consistent offensive threat, but will pitch-in enough to help any line that he is on. Modern day utility player and a nice placeholder for the Preds.

Cody Glass - C

Spending all of 2021-22 in the AHL, Nashville made it a priority to fix Cody Glass’ development after getting him from Vegas. The former third overall pick had a rocky start in the NHL and his first full season with the Predators was a major step forward. Finding his way as a middle-six center, Glass seemed to find his niche as a goal-scorer and a net-front guy on the power play. Scoring six of his goals with the man advantage, Glass is more of the “goal/point vulture” mold right now, he hangs around the net most of his shifts and has slowly figured out the ins-and-outs of scoring a lot of dirty goals. He has terrific hands but slow feet, so this is a good way for him to make an NHL career. It makes him more of a secondary player on his line, as he doesn’t play with a lot of pace, or handle the puck much, but it’s also something you can work around since he will do the little things away from the puck. His defensive game was especially encouraging, always in the right spot in coverage to help generate easy exits. Great things were expected for Glass when Vegas took him with their first ever pick and a detour to Nashville seems to be just what he needed to get his career back on track.

Yakov Trenin - LW

Appropriately nicknamed “The Yak,” the Nashville winger is probably most known for being one of the only players to fight Zdeno Chara twice. What they might not know is that he’s become one of Nashville’s more reliable players since then. Scoring double-digit goals in back-to-back seasons, he found a home on what was dubbed “The Herd Line” by Preds fans. He was one of the straws that stirred the drink on that line because he is very direct in how he plays. He shoots the puck at every opportunity and will lay a shoulder into any player that is along the boards. The more skilled parts of his game showed out a little last year, carrying the puck into the zone more and surprising defenders with his puck-handling. He still doesn’t drift too far from his bread and butter, always hanging around or behind the net to set up shop in the offensive zone and being a nuisance to play against. Also, a fixture on Nashville’s penalty kill alongside Colton Sissons. Trenin should continue to be a regular middle-sixer for Nashville even with The Herd Line disassembled.

Denis Gurianov - RW

Dallas finally decided to cut bait with their former first round pick, sending him to Montreal in exchange for Evgenii Dadonov. Far removed from his 20-goal rookie campaign, Gurianov struggled to find the scoring touch after that and hasn’t found a niche in the other parts of the game. His last year in Dallas was his low point, with only two goals in 43 games. If you tuned into their games, you know it wasn’t for a lack of trying, as he averaged more shots per 60 minutes than almost any of their other forwards and the blistering one-timer is still there. Being able to get it on the net has been the issue and his game went from one-dimensional to zero-dimensional as a high-shot volume player who couldn’t score. A fresh start in Montreal helped for a pinch, scoring four goals in five games after the trade but they ultimately let him become a free agent. He brings some qualities that Nashville could use, especially as a triggerman for their second power play unit and someone who plays with a high-motor and will at least work hard in his minutes. It’s tough to say if he will get regular playing time with so many players from Milwaukee looking for full-time jobs too.

Colton Sissons - C

A hero from their 2017 Stanley Cup run, Sissons has been a mainstay in Nashville’s bottom-six for years, centering The Herd Line with Trenin and Jeannot. He was one of a few players that had their role increased last year due to injury, playing close to 19 minutes some nights and even getting some prolonged time with Filip Forsberg in the top-six at times. Sissons is typically the “next man up” for Nashville in these situations because of how reliable his game is as a defensive player and that he has the stamina to play bigger minutes if needed. Most of the time he has a pretty thankless role as the center who takes most of the defensive zone faceoffs and the main job is surviving the shift before even thinking about making a play with the puck. It’s a tough, but necessary role on most teams and you can do worse than Sissons. He usually finds a way to get to the 25–30-point range despite that, though. Last year was his highest goal total since 2019, as the extra ice-time allowed him to poach for more offense at times. He can also play the wing if needed, so should continue to be a fixture in Nashville’s lineup next year.

Phillip Tomasino - RW

After spending all of 2021-22 in the NHL, the former first round pick wasn’t called up to Nashville until February. This decision was met with the refrain of “it’s about time,” as he was a sleeper pick for some people last year. Not setting the world on fire but showing some flash as a playmaker and looking like he belonged in the NHL at the very least. His play down the stretch was more of the same, Tomasino getting more of a run in the top-six and showing some of that creativity that got him drafted so high. Why he was in the AHL for so long is tough to say. Either Nashville didn’t want to have one of their top prospects stuck as a checker or they felt his overall game needed more work. Regardless, it looks like he did enough to be on the opening night roster this year. He was a decent weapon on the second power play unit, setting up a lot of plays from the right faceoff circle and scoring a few “surprise” goals off deflections. The lack of goal-scoring and his spotty play-driving are legitimate concerns, but hopefully he will get a full-season to iron those out this time around.

Defense

Roman Josi - D

Following up a record-setting season is tough. Perhaps it’s even more difficult when someone on another team breaks your own record, which was the case for Nashville’s star defenseman. He was the first defenseman to top 90 points, something that hasn’t been done post-lockout, until Erik Karlsson scored 101-points this year. There wasn’t a lot that changed about his overall game this year except the puck went into the net less often, mainly on the power play where he had 13 fewer points. Josi was the same, roaming player he has always been, always looking to push for offense. Nashville’s forwards not scoring as many goals as they used to is what hurt his point total more than anything. The same passing plays he created in 2022 weren’t as freely available last year, so the points didn’t come as easily for him. The main difference for the Nashville captain this year was adjusting to a new partner in Ryan McDonagh, pairing him with another lefty for the first time in a while and someone who is a little tougher around the edges than Dante Fabbro. It made breakouts a little easier, as Josi didn’t have to go the full 200 feet to create offense and could get up in the play more with a steady partner back. Still projects to be the team’s best player for the upcoming season.

Tyson Barrie - D

Some players are a product of the situations they’re in and Tyson Barrie has been living his best life running the top of the umbrella of the Oilers power play. His vision and deception from the point made him a good fit for that spot, as he can do more than just distribute from the point and find the soft spots in the penalty kill. Nashville got to see glimpses of that during his audition with the team after the trade deadline. He’s also a decent goal-scoring threat for a defenseman, tallying 10 last season. He has some utility at 5-on-5 but was used primarily on the third pair during his final year with Edmonton, as he doesn’t handle forecheck pressure well and has trouble translating his strong puck-skills when the game gets quicker. Most of his value is attached to what he does on the power play, which was a lot with the Oilers. 54-percent of his points with Edmonton were with the man advantage. He could see a bigger role in Nashville but will have a tough time unseating Roman Josi as the team’s power play quarter back.

Ryan McDonagh - D

Few players deserved the “underrated” tag more than Ryan McDonagh in his prime. He did everything you want out of a top-pairing defenseman and could control 5-on-5 play better than almost anyone. As he has gotten older, he’s gotten less concerned with putting up points and more with taking care of his own zone first. He’s a strong skater still and will jump in for a splash play occasionally, but he’s not the one-man breakout he used to be. Pairing him with Josi made sense on paper, as McDonagh can still be effective with taking hits and killing the play along the boards so Josi can scoop the puck up, but there is only so much you can do as a defenseman playing this style. You’re making the first play, but everything else is out of your control, so the downside is you might have a season like McDonagh where you spend most of the time blocking shots and preventing damage in your own zone. There’s a role for these players, but it’s a taxing style on their bodies and McDonagh already has a lot of miles on his tires at 33-years old. His skating is still strong enough to keep him a viable option on the penalty kill and the top-four.

Alex Carrier - D

The young defenseman suffered two setbacks, first was having his season derailed by an injury, second was losing Mattias Ekholm, Carrier’s defense partner for most of his brief career. His game isn’t too different from top-pairing defensemen around the AHL or in other leagues, just needing a chance to finally get a chance in the AHL. He’s a good skater that uses his stick to disrupt plays without taking penalties and was a great fit for John Hynes’ system where the right defensemen step up in the neutral zone regularly. Very good with the puck even if it doesn’t translate to a lot of points, as exiting the zone with control is a strength of his. Could be in a tough roster situation this year with Nashville having four right-handed defensemen under contract and his regular partner now playing for another team. Mobility and willingness to play anywhere in the lineup should be enough to keep him a regular, although maybe with a different role depending on how the roster shakes out.

Goaltending

Juuse Saros - G

The Nashville Predators missing out on the postseason last year was hardly goaltender Juuse Saros’ fault. The undersized – but remarkably well-positioned and hard-to-shake – number one put up one of the league’s best performances last year, despite the raw numbers showcasing nothing more than an overworked (but better than average) starter on an underperforming team. No goaltender in the NHL made more saves above expected last year than he did, with the 28-year-old keeping his team not just in games, but close to the playoff hunt quite literally down to the bitter end. The Predators missed the postseason by a mere three points last year, and it’s hard to believe they would have been anywhere but the league basement without Saros’ steady presence in more than two-thirds of their games.

Of course, there’s only so long that the team can continue to trot out Saros for over sixty games a year. It’s hard to imagine they don’t want to split the workload more evenly, and there’s a chance that he’ll be able to take some breaths of relief with prospect Yaroslav Askarov looking more and more ready for regular NHL action. But ultimately. Saros is a smaller goaltender who has to rely on picture-perfect precision in his game to keep the team from backsliding; if they keep playing him with the kind of workload they’ve asked of him for the last few years, it’s hard to imagine it won’t start to show up in the form of fatigue errors before they’re ready to get Askarov into regular game action. The Predators have to find the balance between treating their current starter right and avoiding any kind of rush job for their goaltender of the future – and right now, they’re toeing that line a little too closely for comfort.

Projected starts: 60-65

Fit The Bill – Calgary Flames 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:27:42 +0000

Review/State of Play - Expectations were running high in Calgary heading into the season. They had made the playoffs in coach Glen Gulutzan first year after missing for six of the previous seven seasons. An emerging young core and some additions on defense (Travis Hamonic) and goal (Mike Smith) meant to push the team further, costing them draft picks and ultimately not drafting until the fourth round in the 2018 NHL Draft.

The team collapsed down the stretch only winning 12 of their final 36 games in a crushing disappointment. Coach Gulutzan was fired as a result, replaced by Bill Peters in the off season. He comes from the Hurricanes featuring a strong possession game.

Offensively they struggled finishing 27^th in the league for goals for and the third worst power play in the league. Their supposed team strength with an enviable defense group they allowed the 10^th lowest shots against in the NHL, but 13^th worst in goals against of 2.96 per game. Smith was not the answer in net. Brian Burke having moved on and a new coach, GM Brad Treliving decided to blow things up with a blockbuster trade.

Blockbuster blow up - They moved their leading scoring defender in Dougie Hamilton (17 goals and 44 points – tied for the league lead in goals), in a package with Bill Peters old team that netted them Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin. Leaving with Hamilton was Michael Ferland who played primarily with Gaudreau and Monahan and promising prospect Adam Fox. Replacing Ferland will either be Lindholm or James Neal, acquired through free agency.

Hamilton’s departure leaves a big hole as he and Giordano formed one of the best duo’s in the league. Hanifin is only 21 years old and contributed 10 goals and 32 points in his third NHL season. A high draft pick, he may benefit from the mentoring of either captain Mike Giordano or steady Travis Hamonic – allowing him to develop with some insurance. The Flames still boast a strong defensive corps of Giordan, T.J Brodie, Hamonic and Michael Stone without Hamilton and the upgrade on the wing was crucial to improving the offense. Hamonic was a disappointment in his first season, but a year of acclimatization should help. Brodie also regressed, along with others, and chemistry with Hamonic did not come. Peters will bring a new approach, but has a tool set to work with.

Elias Lindholm, 23 years old signed a six-year extension ($4.85 AAV) with the Flames after being acquired locking him up through his prime. Peters familiarity with both players (Hanifin remains an RFA for the moment) may have been key – and the signing reinforced his confidence in Lindholm. He can play either center or right wing giving some options to the coach.

CALGARY, AB - FEBRUARY 01: Calgary Flames Center Sean Monahan (23) takes a break during a game between the Calgary Flames and the Minnesota Wild on February 01, 2017, at the Scotiabank Saddledome, in Calgary AB. (Photo by Jose Quiroz/Icon Sportswire)

Offensive retooling - Up front hey have budding superstars in Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, with Matthew Tkachuk emerging last season with 24 goals. Neal and Lindholm fill in a void on right wing to go with strength on the left side in Gaudreau and Tkachuk.

The added depth down the middle signing 31-year-old Derek Ryan, who also played with Peters in Carolina, in free agency to a three-year contract ($3.125 AAV). He contributed 15 goals last season and as importantly won 56.5% of his faceoffs taking the second most on the team and led the regulars on Carolina in CF% with 56.55% - and third in the league for players over 1000 minutes - interestingly behind Dougie Hamilton and Mark Giordano. Peters is a possession guy and Ryan improves his team in that area.

A disappointing season from 22-year-old Sam Bennett and 23-year-old Curtis Lazar. Bennett contributed only 11 goals and 15 assists in his third NHL season and Lazar acquired from Ottawa with some contributed two goals in 65 games and endured some really challenging stretches. They are both young enough to turn it around, but the organization must be anxious for signs of development. 23-year-old Mark Jankowski contributed 17 goals and played a regular shift last season. He has played well in the NCAA and the AHL and the team has been patient in his development and is considered an important piece of the near future. Austin Czarnik signed as a free agent for two years ($1.25 million AAV) and the Flames hope he can contribute after finishing third in the AHL in scoring last year.

The rest of the forward group is solid with 29-year-old Mikael Backlund emerging as one of the best two-way centers in the league and was rewarded with a six- year contract ($5.35 million AAV). He, Matthew Tkachuck and Michael Frolik were teamed together most of last season and represent a strong shut down line that can provide timely scoring.

In net Mike Smith has one more year on his contract at $4.25 million. Smith can be brilliant and was to start the season contributing to the optimism in Calgary. Unfortunately the Flames fortune would follow his. He had groin issues to end the season and his GAA ballooned to 3.45 and his save percentage was 0.896 after the all-star break. Goal remains an enormous question mark.

Outlook - The Flames are young and developing still and have a mature defense group that ranks against most in the NHL. If Smith can be heroic, they could be a very good team this season. A playoff spot should be the goal and attainable.

Calgary – System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Thu, 14 Sep 2017 20:51:11 +0000

Goaltending is, for many analysts, the last black box of player scouting and evaluation. Goalies that look great at 18 all too often fizzle out before they are 23. Goalies to whom no one gave a second thought at 18 sometimes end up as the best of all. For every Carey Price (5th overall, 2005), there is a Henrik Lundqvist (205th overall, 2000). For every Roberto Luongo (4th overall, 1997), there is a Pekka Rinne (258th overall in his third year of eligibility, 2004). The Pittsburgh Penguins were also well schooled in this phenomenon, as Marc-Andre Fleury (1st overall, 2003), was supplanted in the postseason, in two consecutive seasons, by Matt Murray (83rd overall, 2012).

To combat this general uncertainty, teams have a few different approaches. Some teams largely neglect goalies on draft day and subsequently stock their organization with free agents and/or late round flyers. The Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks and the Edmonton Oilers are examples of this approach. The Dallas Stars were, too, until flipping that on its head with one of their first round picks this year.

Some teams make a point of adding a goalie or two every year, essentially hoping to throw a lot of “stuff” on the wall until something sticks. The Toronto Maple Leafs having taken that approach of late, as have the Winnipeg Jets and the Colorado Avalanche. If none work out, the team can always fill the NHL slots with veteran pickups and continue to throw darts.

Other teams take a similar approach, buying in bulk, but with more of an emphasis on using premium picks on goalies. Again, they will generally not work out, but at least the team will know that they gave it their best shot. The New York Islanders have four netminders in their system that they selected in the top four rounds. The Flyers are extremists, with three third rounders and two second rounders vying for future time in the crease. And there are the Flames, with a third rounder and two second rounders in the system as well as two others signed as high profile undrafted free agents.

The Flames are approaching the time where these prospects will be put to the test. While they acquired two NHL veterans in the offseason, presumed starter Mike Smith has two years left on his contract, while Eddie Lack is in the final season of his. Thankfully, of the five young goalies in the system, two rank very highly and two others were also under consideration for the top 20. This is not to say that when an opportunity arises one of Jon Gillies or Tyler Parsons will be tapped for it, or that they would succeed if they were, but it does reflect some foresight on the part of the Flames’ brass, taking higher calculated gambles on young netminders when there was an expected need at the NHL level in the near future.

Juuso Valimaki of the Tri-City Americans.

1 Juuso Valimaki – Calgary’s most recent first round pick is two-way defender who combines a high skill level with effectiveness in his own end. Already possessing and NHL-sized frame, Valimaki is a strong skater and is not shy about playing in a physical style in all zones. With two full seasons of WHL play already in his rearview mirror, Valimaki has more than proven that he can succeed at a high level in North America and there may be more room to round out his game before rising to the NHL.

2 Adam Fox – A dynamic blueliner with the USNTDP when the Flames nabbed him with a third round pick in the 2016 draft and that has quickly been elevated into one of the steals of that draft class. He is a first-rate offensive blueliner who can both lead or support the rush. His stickhandling is near elite among his fellow defensemen. He was the runaway leader among all NCAA defensemen in points with 40 – as a freshman. If he was anywhere but Harvard, he would likely already have signed an ELC.

3 Mark Jankowksi – It is not often that a first round draft pick spends a full four years playing college hockey before turning pro, but Jankowski was one such creature. After four years with Providence, a run which included an NCAA title in his junior year, Jankowski was more than ready for the AHL, with 56 points good for second among rookies in the league. He has plus acceleration, very nice hand-eye coordination and dangerous hands. Looks NHL ready.

4 Spencer Foo – An undrafted winger from Edmonton, Foo blew up in his junior season at Union College and elected to turn pro instead of completing his NCAA eligibility, which also meant passing up on the chance to team up with younger brother Parker. He has high end top speed, combined with plus acceleration. Tricky with the puck, he goes right at defenders, forcing them to react. Possesses surprising strength from an average-sized body.

Tyler Parsons of the London Knights. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

5 Tyler Parsons – One of the most athletic netminders not yet in the NHL, Parsons is unbelievably competitive. He does not play with a traditional technical style, but is a master scrambler, which, when combined with his below average (by modern standards) size, will bring Dominik Hasek to mind, at least stylistically. He is incredibly difficult to beat down low and gets post to post with great quickness. As a late birthday, he is eligible to move on to the AHL this year.

6 Jon Gillies – A college teammate’s of Jankowski at Providence, Gillies was reunited with the big center last year in Stockton. Coming off a miserable rookie pro season, limited to seven games due to injury, is well stays square to the shooter, with controlled lateral movements. Has long legs that he uses well and is skilled at hugging the posts, leaving shooters little to aim at.

7 Dillon Dube – A hustler with some offensive chops, Dube plays an aggressive style of game that is well suited to a third line, energy type role as a professional. While he gets to top speed quickly, his best attribute is his hockey sense, particularly away from the puck. Not very big, he is feisty and is not at all averse to playing in the dirty areas. Still tends to try to do too much on his own, either not looking to his linemates, or misreading their intentions.

8 Oliver Kylington – The most divisive prospect in the Flames system, the Swedish-born blueliner has elite speed but suffers from a chronic inability to read opposing forwards and thus gets caught out of position with frequency. To his credit, he has spent the past two seasons playing as a teenager in the AHL, a very, very rare occurrence. He also showed much improvement in his ability to creative drives with his speed and puck movement. He is still a wildcard, although getting closer to the NHL.

HELSINKI, FINLAND - JANUARY 2: Sweden's Rasmus Asplund #18 stickhandles the puck away from Slovakia's Filip Lestan #27 during quarterfinal round action at the 2016 IIHF World Junior Championship. (Photo by Matt Zambonin/HHOF-IIHF Images)

9 Rasmus Andersson – Short but stocky, Andersson had a solid rookie pro season with Stockton after acclimating to the North American game for two years with Barrie. Although not a speedster, his skating has improved noticeably since his draft year. While he has a nice wrist shot that he will step up from the point to fire on net, his puck play is more impressive. Adequate in his own end with decent positioning and instincts. Not a physical player, per se, but his checks pack punch.

10 Hunter Shinkaruk – A former first round pick of the Vancouver Canucks, Shinkaruk has established himself as a solid secondary scorer after three AHL seasons. He has speed to spare, with strong puck skills and enough of a shot to be a threat. Although undersized, he has some chip to his game, as he shows no fear of going into the corners for loose pucks against bigger opponents. He has little left to prove in the AHL and is ready for a more extended NHL look.

11 Andrew Mangiapane – Yet another point producer coming off a strong rookie season in the AHL, Mangiapane was drafted by the Flames in his second year of eligibility after putting up 104 points for a competitive Barrie squad. He was even better the following year, with two more points in nine fewer games. He plays bigger than his size, but being very small, that says only so much. He has plus offensive vision and his success will be predicated on his production.

12 Daniel Pribyl – One of two players, along with netminder David Rittich, signed by the Flames out of the Czech hockey last offseason, Pribyl’s first season in North America was marred by injury, but he showed sparks of the talent the Calgary hoped it was getting when he was healthy. He sees the ice very well, provides strong puck pressure in the neutral and offensive zones and puts his heavy frame to good use. He will not be a top six player, but can play in a lower role.

13 Emile Poirier – One of three players selected by Calgary in the 2013 first round, Poirier has had the roughest career to date of the trio. In three pro seasons, his point production has steadily dropped from 42 points, to 29 and down to 17 (albeit in only 43 games) last year. A few weeks ago, he admitted to struggling with addiction issues. If his personal problems are being taken care of, his speed and offensive talent may finally shine through. The context is worth giving him another chance to live up to his potential.

Adam Ruzicka of the Sarnia Sting. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

14 Adam Ruzicka – In a good day, Ruzicka can be a dominant player, using his size, skating and puck skills to run roughshod over his opponents. He has a quick shot release and can snipe with his wrister. The reason why he lasted on the draft board until the fourth round and sits at #14 on this list is that those good days do not come around often enough. He was a no-show in the WJC and in the OHL playoffs, although hinted at his talent once more in the WU18. He can make us all look stupid.

15 Brett Kulak – After splitting last season between Calgary and Stockton, Kulak barely qualifies for this list. He has decent size, good mobility and plays a physical brand of hockey. These are all fine things. On the down side, he makes questionable decisions both on and off the puck and is not a threat when he winds up to fire a shot from the point. He is what he is: a decent option for a team to have as its seventh defenseman.

16 Morgan Klimchuk – Along with Poirier and Sean Monahan, Klimchuk completes the Flames’ three first round picks from the 2013 draft. After a horrid first AHL season, Klimchuck rebounded nicely last year, with 43 points in 66 games. He has a nice blend of offensive skills, including solid drive, decent vision and passing skills and a promising shot release. There does not yet seem to be room for him in Calgary, but it is too early to call him a bust.

17 Matthew Phillips – It is fitting that the organization that turned Johnny Gaudreau into a star would take a chance on a WHL powerhouse who is only 5-7”, 160. That’s right, Phillips has to look up to Gaudreau. An offensive powerhouse with Victoria of the WHL, he skates well and has plus puck skills. Although he scored 87 goals in the last two seasons, he is a better playmaker than shooter. He will have to prove he belongs at every new level.

18 Rushan Rafikov – Finally getting his career going in the KHL, Rafikov’s team, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl recently signed him to a two year extension. Projects at around average in all facets of the game, with only his shot peaking clearly above that line. With Calgary rather stocked on the blueline, both in the NHL and below, he is probably going to develop further with a bigger role in Russia for now. Consider this ranking a “forget-me-not”.

19 Josh Healey – The other NCAA free agent signing made by Calgary this offseason, the Edmonton native played for four years at Ohio State, increasing his point production each year (5->9->21->25). Very comfortable carrying the puck up the ice, he is a solid skater with a high panic threshold. He could stand to play with more urgency, but performs well in his own zone, working to keep his man to the outside. He does not have a high ceiling, but is fairly safe as prospects go.

20 Linus Lindstrom – Considered a smart two-way center in his draft year, Lindstrom struggled mightily to produce even a fraction of the offense in the SHL as he did in SuperElit, finishing the year with only six points in 50 games for Skelleftea. He still flashes promising puck skills and ability to read the play in all three zones, but his skating is average at best and his shot and physical game are both below that mark.

Although the system’s depth of talented goaltenders earns top billing here, with seven defensemen in the top 20, including both of the top two, Calgary should be strong at the back for years to come. And that is without even addressing the fact that the Flames have a top five at the NHL level (Giordano, Hamilton, Brodie, Hamonic, and Stone) that rivals any other team in the league. As they are all locked up for at least three more years, the team can afford to be patient with their next generation.

NHL Prospect Watch: Calgary Flames

Ryan Wagman — Tue, 17 May 2016 22:57:15 +0000

After a pretty disappointing season for their AHL team, the Calgary Flames can rest more easily knowing that three of the top prospects in the system were not yet at the minor pro level. We won’t spend too much time discussing Andrew Mangiapane, a steal of a sixth rounder last summer. While undersized, Mangiapane plays a big game, coupling puck skills, a high hockey IQ and tenacity that should leave Flames’ execs satisfied that he will not shy from the tighter game in the pros. As he was drafted in his second year of eligibility, Mangiapane is already 20 years old and is signed to his ELC. He will join Stockton next year coming off two straight 100 point seasons for Barrie.

Mark Jankowksi, C, Providence (NCAA) (21^st overall, 2012)

A surprise first rounder when drafted in 2012, Jankowski spent the full four years playing for Providence, a period of time which included an NCAA championship in his junior season. Never an elite scorer, Jankowski nevertheless shows a robust tool set that suggests an ability to produce as a professional. He has filled out his frame during his collegiate career and while still lean, there is enough strength to remain effective. That said, he will not be a physical player.

The Hamilton native is comfortable on the cycle and has strong hands which allow him to maintain puck control even when the opposing defenders are keyed on him and pressuring him. Beyond strength, his hands are also rather quick and soft. He can corral misplaced passes that would be giveaways when given to inferior players and quickly turn those pucks towards the net with some zip. Speaking of zip, Jankowski’s top attribute is his shot. He has a high end release, able to get elevation, power and placement from a single touch. He sees shooting lanes well, excelling at getting the puck through screens and on the net. He is also a plus skater with good edge work and strong top speed. While his hands are soft, he is not the type to dazzle with creative puck wizardry, but he does handle it well, and as alluded to before, he is trustworthy as a puck carrier. Jankowski turned pro shortly after the conclusion of his senior year and gave the Flames brass hope for the future with six points in his first eight AHL games at the tail end of the Stockton season. While Jankowski is a natural center, he has plenty of experience at left wing and that is his clearest path to the NHL. He would benefit from a full (or near full) season in the AHL to ensure his pace has acclimated, but profiles as a potential second line winger sooner than later.

Brandon Hickey, D, Boston University (NCAA) (64^th overall, 2014)

A disappointing sophomore season for the BU Terriers aside, Brandon Hickey remains a mobile rearguard who should be firmly in the Flames plans for the near future. From the Edmonton suburb of Leduc, Hickey was scouted out of the Spruce Grove program in the AJHL. His freshman season with BU was tremendous with 17 points in 41 games, lining up with another elite prospect in Jack Eichel. With the Terriers unable to replace Eichel (no collegiate program could) Hickey’s offensive numbers suffered, dropping to eight points in 36 games. On the bright side, he gained some attention from Hockey Canada – a relative rarity among collegians – and was selected to represent his country during the WJC.

Hickey’s best attribute is his ability to lead a rush. A plus skater, he can pick a lane to exit his own zone and eat up ice on his way to the other side. His passes are crisp and he is not averse to letting one of his teammates make the zone entry when a better lane exists. His slap shot is great and his wrist shot is strong enough to suggest a solid point man down the line. Unlike many teenaged offensive blueliners, Hickey is also an asset off the puck. He keeps tight gaps on his opponents and maintains an active stick, both to strip pucks as well as to serve as an outlet for teammates who have already won the puck. He can be physical as well, although he is short of punishing. He would need to pack on 15-20 more pounds to reach that level. As of this writing, Hickey has not signed an ELC, and it is likely that he will return to BU for a third season. If his production can return to the levels of his freshman campaign, he will likely turn pro next summer. It says here that he will exceed those figures and compete for a spot on the Calgary blueline for the 2017-18 season. A number two defender is not out of the question, but it is more likely that he settles in as a solid option for the second pairing, contributing on both ends of the ice.

Adam Ollas Mattsson, D, Djurgarden (SHL) (175^th overall, 2014)

Unfortunately for AOM and the Flames, the young blueliner missed a good chunk of the season with injury, masking what had otherwise been a year of steps forward for the hulking teenager. A prominent member of Sweden’s entry at the World Juniors until the aforementioned injury hit him early in the medal round. Very much a defensive defenseman, he can nonetheless move the puck well and showed during the big tournament that he can join the rush as a puck carrier.

For the most part, though, this will not be a D-man who will ever earn much if any time on the power play. He will earn penalty killing shifts and appeal to his coaches through his willingness to step in front of slap shots. He spent most of his healthy days this year playing in the SHL, but his role in the men’s league was relatively minor, indicating that he would have been better off developing for one more year in the SuperElit (Sweden’s top junior league). At year’s end, he was healthy for the junior playoffs and was at times a dominating force, according to Hockey Prospectus author Jimmy Hamrin. Although rather far from being NHL-ready, Ollas Mattsson has the upside of a shutdown defender with a good first pass.

Oliver Kylington, D, Stockton (AHL) (60^th overall, 2015)

Another Swedish blueliner in the system, the slight Kylington may be the single highest upside player of any position in the Calgary organization. Like Ollas Mattsson profiled above, Kylington played with men as a teenager, in Kylington’s case, with Stockton of the AHL. Playing with adults is nothing new for the blazing skater, as he has appeared in SHL games at the age of 16. As can be expected with any teenager in the AHL, Kylington underwent significant growing pains this year, as partially seen in his meagre total of 12 points in 47 games.

Somewhat undersized at 6-0”, 183, Kylington does not look to have the frame to get much broader. That said, according to Hockey Prospectus Jason Lewis (who assisted with the reports of many of the AHL players in this system), he does not play down to his size and will happily engage with opposing forwards in front of his own net. He is not very effective yet in that regards, but he has not yet been a pushover. In fact, he has generally shown positive traits in his own end, with good positioning, and an understanding of how to use his stick to defend. He can also keep very tight gap control, as his skating prowess means that he will rarely be beaten with speed alone. He can be an offensive asset, and I would expect far greater numbers in the AHL next year (he is definitely not yet ready for a full-time NHL gig), as he can handle the puck and is electric when leading the rush, but he needs to show more creativity and better vision for lines of attack before he will have earned the type of trust that comes with top four minutes. Another area in need of improvement is in transition. While his hockey sense is good enough at times, he needs to do a better job of anticipating occasions of the puck going back the other way and prepare to defend, instead of chasing after lost causes or poorly considered pinches. Considering his age and his natural skating ability, along with the league’s move towards mobility over brawn, and it is easy to see why the Flames braintrust would be excited about his future. As long as they are patient, they should be rewarded.

Patrick Sieloff, D, Stockton (AHL) (42^nd overall, 2012)

Originally drafted out of the USNTDP with a reputation as a bruiser, Sieloff finished his junior career with the Windsor Spitfires before joining the Flames organization. Unfortunately, the Ann Arbor native missed most of his rookie pro season, and a good chunk of his follow up attempt to injury. Finally relatively healthy, Sieloff took big strides forward this year, cutting back on his penalty minutes significantly and even earned a late-season, one game call-up to Calgary, scoring his first goal in the process.

Although less reckless, Sieloff is still a very aggressive defenseman, always on the lookout for a big hit. He is a plus skater who lacks in puck skills, but will join the rush thanks more to his strong first step quickness and acceleration than to his offensive ability. His shot is decent from closer distances, but is not much of a weapon from the point. Like Ollas Mattsson, Sieloff will not be an offensive defenseman going forward, but unlike the other blueliners profiled above, he is close to ready for an NHL job and should tempt the new Flames bench boss – whoever that is – to push one of Dennis Wideman or Ladislav Smid out of the lineup. He does need to hone his instincts a bit more, like more young defensemen, learning when to channel his aggressiveness and when to make a more conservative decision, but there is reason to believe that Sieloff is ready to break into the regular six.

Emile Poirier, LW/RW, Stockton (AHL) (22^nd overall, 2013)

When I referred to a disappointing season in Stockton in the introduction, Poirier was one of the main culprits leading to that assessment. A former first round pick, Poirier’s production dropped nearly fifty percent form his rookie AHL season to his follow-up, going from 42 points in 55 games, to 29 points in 60 games this year. He was good enough last year to rank in Hockey Prospectus’ top 100 prospect list (#90), he is now at risk of falling out of the top ten for Calgary.

Oddly enough, in spite of diminished offensive returns, the part of the game wherein Poirier struggled most this year was in his own zone, as he would fall into the trap of puck watching and simply floating aimlessly. He still showed good offensive sense, anticipating openings well and is a plus stickhandler with a decent wrist shot up his sleeve. Thankfully for his future prospects, the Montreal native is still a tough customer who has a bit of nasty to his game. If his offensive acumen does not return, that truculence (don’t forget that the Flames’ president is Brian Burke) will earn him some chances to win an energy role. He would be above average in that role, but it would be a disappointment, as he had shown much more in the past.

Hunter Shinkaruk, LW, Stockton (AHL) (24^th overall, 2013, acquired in a trade with Vancouver for Markus Granlund)

Acquired by Calgary in an under-the-radar trade from Vancouver, for whom he had fallen out of favor as a first rounder from a previous regime, Shinkaruk has the potential to emerge as a bright spot from an otherwise dismal season. A former high-end scorer in the WHL, he took big strides forward in his second full AHL season, raising his offensive production from 34 points in 71 games with Utica last year to a combined 51 points in 62 games this year between Utica and Stockton as well as three points in eight NHL games between Vancouver and Calgary.

Fitting an underlying theme of the prospects profiled here, Shinkaruk has some chip to his game, which enhances his underlying skill. He is a good skater with solid first step quickness and a nose for the puck. He can be elusive when skating with the puck and is comfortable carrying the mail from his own zone to the other end. The Calgary native is a weapon on the rush whether passing to an open teammate or taking the shot himself. Although still undersized (5-11”, 181), he is unlikely to get much bigger, so the decision on his immediate future should be based on his hockey readiness, instead of physical preparedness. Barring a big offseason acquisition, he could find himself with an opportunity to win a second line job in the Fall.