Matthew Poitras – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – BOSTON BRUINS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Josh Bell — Thu, 25 Sep 2025 18:56:19 +0000

BOSTON, MA - FEBRUARY 06: Boston Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman (1) eyes a shot during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Calgary Flames on February 6, 2024, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

To say things went sideways last season is putting it lightly. The Bruins went from having 109 points and finishing second in the Atlantic Division in 2023-2024 to dead last in the Eastern Conference and 76 points in 2024-2025. They fired coach Jim Montgomery only to see him join the St. Louis Blues and rally them to the playoffs while interim Joe Sacco couldn’t help pull the Bruins out of the hole they dug themselves. That led to seeing general manager Don Sweeney pull the plug and trade captain Brad Marchand to Florida and defenceman Brandon Carlo to Toronto at the trade deadline. While David Pastrnak continued to be brilliant and Morgan Geekie had a big season, No. 1 goalie Jeremy Swayman struggled all year after he missed training camp while he awaited a new contract. Injuries to defencemen Charlie McAvoy (50 games played) and Hampus Lindholm (17 games played) for a bulk of the season made matters that much worse and if they could burn the tape of the whole year, they would. Unfortunately, they’ll have to take a long look in the mirror to figure out if this is something they can turn around or if a rebuild of some kind is needed.

What’s Changed?

Marco Sturm is back in Boston and this time he’ll be behind the bench as a first-time NHL head coach. He replaces Sacco who had the unfortunate task of trying to turn things around midway through last season. Sturm comes over from the Ontario Reign in the AHL where he led them to the playoffs in each of his three seasons. Previously to that, he was an assistant coach with the Los Angeles Kings under Todd McLellan. On top of the new coach, the Bruins expect to have McAvoy and Lindholm back on the blue line. Free agency was quiet, however. They brought back forward Sean Kuraly and added forwards Michael Eyissmont and Tanner Jeannot and defenceman Jordan Harris. Adding Viktor Arvidsson via trade from Edmonton gives them a guy with a history of scoring on the wing. Being near the cap ceiling has its downsides and having to budget signings was a big part of that for Boston. Fans that wanted big roster additions were dealt a hard dose of reality.

What Would Success Look Like?

The bar is set differently for Boston and getting back to the playoffs is a priority given they have one of the league’s elite scorers in his prime in Pastrnak (43 goals and 107 points last season). A return to form from Swayman and healthy seasons from McAvoy and Lindholm will have the Bruins back in a place where they can be more back to normal for them. If Geekie can replicate what he did last season when he scored 33 goals while getting stronger seasons from Pavel Zacha and Casey Mittelstadt, they can be right back in the hunt for the playoffs. The Bruins don’t lack talent; they lack depth and depth of talent which means injuries and slumps are their worst enemies. It also puts enormous pressure on Sweeney to shore things up.

What Could Go Wrong?

If Swayman’s erratic performance last season was less a factor of not having a training camp and more about his play coming back to Earth, that would be a worse-case scenario. What helped make Boston so good in previous years was being able to split time with two goalies who could stay fresh and pick each other up. When Swayman struggled, Joonas Korpisalo couldn’t always pick up the slack as the backup. Should Geekie be unable to replicate his offensive output and McAvoy and Lindholm struggle coming back from injury, the Bruins’ season will be a slog for them to keep up while the rest of the Atlantic Division throw haymakers at each other to get to the playoffs. It’s the NHL’s toughest division and any kind of slip up can end a season prematurely.

Top Breakout Candidate

The biggest factor in becoming a breakout player is the opportunity to do it and that’s what Marat Khusnutdinov will have. The Bruins acquired the forward from Minnesota in March for Justin Brazeau and at 5-foot-11, 180 pounds, he’s got the size and skills to get in and out of trouble with ease. In 91 career games he’s got six goals and 10 assists, but if he can take advantage of the opportunity he’ll have in Boston to get ice time, the 2020 second-round pick will have the opportunity to take a big step forward with his game.

FORWARDS

David Pastrnak

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	45	58	103	1.26

In the past four seasons, Pastrnak has scored 191 goals, putting him third in the NHL, behind only Auston Matthews (202) and Leon Draisaitl (200). Pastrnak has reached that total with a solid foundation – he leads the NHL with 1,420 shots on goal over that period of time. As the Bruins move through what appears to be a period of transition, Pastrnak is clearly the most talented player on the team and, as he showed last season, he can produce at an elite level no matter what the situation is with his supporting cast. So, even as the Bruins faded from playoff contention, in his last 38 games, Pastrnak put up an astonishing 64 points (26 G, 38 A), pushing him past 40 goals and 100 points for the third consecutive season. He was runner-up for the Hart Trophy in 2022-2023, when he scored 61 goals, but it might take a little while for the Bruins to bounce back into a suitably competitive level that will get him those kinds of accolades, but his performance in recent seasons warrants that kind of respect. Having heaped this praise upon him, it would still be helpful if the Bruins could improve the quality of talent around Pastrnak so that he doesn’t have to carry such a heavy load. As it is, Pastrnak has a superb wrist shot and has improved his ability to put the puck on net. He remains one of the few players in the league with a legitimate chance to score 50 goals and 100 points and that should be where expectations sit for him going into the 2025-2026 season.

Morgan Geekie

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	38	27	65	0.79

Following a couple of seasons of steady progress, Geekie erupted last season with career highs of 33 goals and 57 points. Geekie tallied 29 even-strength goals, which was tied for eighth in the NHL. As encouraging as that might be, he also scored on 22 percent of his shots and that will be extremely difficult to duplicate. Nevertheless, Geekie was given the opportunity to play an offensive role and made the most of it, playing mostly with Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha. Playing with quality linemates allowed Geekie to be featured as more of a finisher and he did an excellent job finding open ice and being ready to fire the puck at a moment’s notice. Geekie also uses his 6-foot-3 frame effectively around the net, shielding the puck from defenders and creating just enough room to knock in rebounds or finish off passing plays when he is in-tight. The question now is whether this is indeed the level to which Geekie should be expected to produce, and the answer probably lies in whether he is going to keep playing with Pastrnak. Since last season brought unprecedented production, Geekie is a somewhat risky proposition going into 2025-2026. He is likely to skate on Boston’s first line, but it’s not like he has the track record to believe that he must be in that spot all season, so enthusiasm should be tempered at least a little. As such, 25 goals and 45-50 points is a fair expectation.

Elias Lindholm

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	21	37	58	0.71

The Brujns probably held out hope that they would get more offence from Lindholm, who managed 47 points in his first season in Boston, scoring just three goals in his first 32 games. He needed nine points (4 G, 5 A) in his last seven games to even reach that relatively modest point total. In his best years with the Calgary Flames, Lindholm was a premier two-way center who could contribute offensively, recording a career-high 82 points (40 G, 42 A) in 2021-2022, while also providing responsible defensive play and he finished as the Selke Trophy runner-up in that 2021-2022 season. What has happened since, however, is a more watered-down version of that player. Lindholm can contribute offensively, but not as much, and his defensive play is solid-to-strong rather than outstanding. If Lindholm is holding down a second-line center spot, he would be a quality option but, on this Bruins team, they could certainly use more from him – the first-line center job is there for the taking! Last season, Lindholm’s most common linemates were Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Charlie Coyle, two of whom are no longer in Boston, so there is an opportunity for Lindholm to move between Geekie and Pastrnak on the top line, but it’s hardly a guarantee. With that uncertainty, Lindholm could be expected to score 20 goals and 50 points but, if he somehow manages to spend a whole season alongside Pastrnak, then those numbers could get significantly better.

Pavel Zacha

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	16	32	48	0.60

In three seasons with the Bruins, Zacha has been a steady contributor, though last season’s 14 goals counted as his lowest total since 2019-2020. He earned that, unfortunately, with a declining shot rate. His all-situation shot rate of 5.1 shots on goal per 60 minutes was his lowest since his rookie season in 2016-2017 and it’s difficult to generate offense consistently with so few shots on goal. Over the course of those three seasons, the Bruins have controlled 48.9 percent of shot attempts and 49.1 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Zacha on the ice, yet the Bruins have earned 58.4 percent of the goal share, so he is riding some favorable percentages in that respect. Zacha does offer versatility in that he can play both center and wing and move up and down the lineup as needed. That his most common linemates last season were Pastrnak and Geekie reflects just how desperate the Bruins are down the middle of the ice and if he ends up as the first line center, it might be good for Zacha, but it’s probably less than ideal for the Bruins. A fair expectation, based on what he has done in three seasons with the Bruins, is for Zacha to score 15-20 goals and 50 points.

Casey Mittelstadt

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	16	33	49	0.61

After being a highly touted prospect, drafted eighth overall in 2017, Mittelstadt took quite a while to make his mark with the Buffalo Sabres but he did record a career-high 59 points (15 G, 44 A) in 2022-2023 and had 47 points (13 G, 34 A) in 62 games the following season before getting traded to Colorado. Since then, Mittelstadt has managed 50 points (19 G, 31 A) in 99 games with the Avalanche and Bruins. He has the hands and offensive instincts to tease teams, but it has been a challenge for him to generate consistent offense. To be fair, upon arriving in Boston last season, his most common linemates were Vinny Lettieri and Cole Koepke, so maybe that was not the ideal situation to maximize his scoring contributions, but it would seem worthwhile for the Bruins to put more focus on that objective in 2025-2026. Mittelstadt tends to be passive on the ice and has not done enough in his career to earn even the level of trust that players like Lindholm and Zacha experience, so Mittelstadt is going to have to battle for his role as a center in Boston. He does, however, have some upside because of his puck skills so 15 goals and 45-50 points is not an unreasonable expectation for the 2025-2026 season.

Viktor Arvidsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	18	24	42	0.56

Coming off of an injury-shortened 2023-2024 season, Arvidsson looked like a good buy-low option for the Edmonton Oilers, figuring that his tenacity and scoring ability would be a good fit in their middle six, but it was not the right fit and he finished with 27 points (15 G, 12 A) in 60 games, his lowest points per game production since his rookie season in 2015-2016. He also played just under 15 minutes per game, which was also his lowest since his rookie season, and his on-ice shooting percentage was a meagre 6.4 percent, so it was not a season that was built for Arvidsson to have success. He is a five-time 20-goal scorer and has twice exceeded 30 goals in a season, so he has offensive credentials and the Bruins ought to be motivated to give Arvidsson the ice time to show what he can do. Arvidsson is the only established forward on the Bruins who will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2025-2026 season, so if the Bruins are not in playoff contention, he would be a prime trade candidate but would also bring more in trade if he has a productive season. When he is on his game, Arvidsson is a high energy winger who excels on the forecheck and is not shy about launching shots towards the net, with varying degrees of accuracy. He is a consistent play driver and that is reason enough to like his chances to bounce back in Boston. Even allowing that Arvidsson may miss some time with injuries, because that has been his trend lately, he should still have a shot at 15-20 goals and 40 points as a complementary offensive contributor in Boston.

Matthew Poitras

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
28	4	8	12	0.43

A second-round pick in 2023, Poitras has played 33 NHL games in each of the past two seasons, producing a total of 26 points (6 G, 20 A) in 66 games. He did have 41 points (17 G, 24 A) in 40 AHL games last season, which is very encouraging production for his 20-year-old season. Poitras is a young and developing player and his offensive game has not yet broken through in the NHL, but his defensive play has been quite strong in this relatively small sample size. As a result, his Corsi and expected goals percentage both ranked second on the Bruins, so if his AHL production can translate to the next level, then he could turn into a valuable player for the Bruins as they move into a new era. The main area of concern for Poitras is that he has yet to establish his status as a bona fide NHL player, so while there is a world in which he secures a regular spot in the Bruins’ top nine, and that would make sense, there is also the possibility that he ends up on the roster bubble. If he does spend the full season in the NHL, 35 points is a fair expectation for Poitras in 2025-2026.

Tanner Jeannot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	9	12	21	0.27

One of the more controversial free agent signings this summer, Jeannot received a five-year, $17 million contract from the Bruins, a significant commitment for a player who has struggled on his way to 20 goals and 45 points – total – across the past three seasons. It’s a far cry from his rookie season, in 2021-2022, when he put up 41 points (24 G, 17 A) and for the money they are investing, the Bruins have to hope that there is a path to Jeannot recapturing that scoring touch. He can have an impact on the game beyond scoring, as he tends to play a reliable defensive game, is one of the strongest players in the league, and can be an imposing physical presence. Across the past four seasons, he has recorded 1,030 hits and 401 penalty minutes, ranking sixth in both categories. The Bruins would probably like Jeannot to offer some version of what they used to have with Milan Lucic, a physically intimidating presence who could also put the puck in the net. Maybe there is a way for Jeannot to provide that but, based on the past three seasons, double-digit goals and anything more than 20 points would have to be considered a relative victory.

Michael Eyssimont

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	13	12	25	0.31

A late bloomer who didn’t reach the NHL as a regular until he was 26, Eyssimont is a lunch bucket type of player who shows up, works hard, and isn’t afraid to get his nose dirty. Although he managed a modest 16 points (9 G, 7 A) last season, split between Tampa Bay and Seattle, Eyssimont was an effective player who helped drive play in the right direction. His teams controlled 52.4 percent of shot attempts and 54.3 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Eyssimont on the ice, making him very effective relative to his role on the lower end of the depth chart. Despite not being especially big, listed at 6-feet-0, 191 pounds, Eyssimont has recorded more than 100 hits in three straight seasons and he’s not afraid to drop the gloves if the situation warrants it, too. He is also an exceptional shot generator. Among the 424 forwards to play at least 300 minutes of five-on-five play last season, Eyssimont ranked second (behind Brady Tkachuk) with 10.55 shots on goal per 60 minutes. The unfortunate part for Eyssimont is that he is a low percentage finisher, with a career shooting percentage of 6.0 percent, and that limits his overall effectiveness. Given his ability to generate chances, if Eyssimont could just score on 10 percent of his shots it would surely secure him a bigger role. It’s fair to expect 20-25 points from Eyssimont, which is not a lot, but his hits and penalty minutes could make him more relevant for those in banger leagues.

DEFENSE

Charlie McAvoy

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	6	29	35	0.50

A standout blueliner, McAvoy delivers consistently excellent defensive play and was doing so last season, as expected, when he was injured at the Four Nations Face-Off and ended up missing the rest of the season when his shoulder injury got infected. Without McAvoy and after dealing some veterans prior to the trade deadline, the Bruins went 6-15-4 in their last 25 games. The Bruins outscored opponents 34-30 during five-on-five play with McAvoy on the ice, extending his streak to eight consecutive seasons of the Bruins outscoring opponents with him on the ice. Through those eight seasons, the Bruins have outscored opponents by 138 goals during five-on-five play with McAvoy on the ice. He is a punishing hitter whose physical play is a cornerstone of his all-around effectiveness even while facing top opponents on a nightly basis. While McAvoy is a solid puck-handler and strong passer, he does not have a consistent impact on the power play. Among the 55 defencemen who played at least 50 five-on-four minutes last season, McAvoy ranked 54th with 1.49 points per 60 minutes (ahead of only Brent Burns). Mason Lohrei started to get more power play time for Boston as a result, even before McAvoy suffered his season-ending injury. If McAvoy has some role on the power play, he should be able to get back over 40 points, a threshold that he had crossed in three straight seasons prior to 2024-2025.

Hampus Lindholm

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	5	23	28	0.37

An excellent two-way defenceman who has been underrated for much of his career, Lindholm was limited to just 17 games last season due to a knee injury suffered in November. He was very effective in the games that he did play, with the Bruins outshooting and outscoring opponents with him on the ice. A strong skater with a 6-foot-4 frame, Lindholm can be an elite shutdown defender when healthy. In three seasons with the Bruins, he has benefitted from strong goaltending but has also been on the ice for 1.72 goals against per 60 minutes during five-on-five play. Among defencemen to play at least 2,000 five-on-five minutes across those three seasons, the only defencemen with lower rates of goals against were Nate Schmidt, Colin Miller and Dylan Samberg, all of whom spent at least one season with the Winnipeg Jets, playing in front of goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. In any case, if the Bruins get healthy seasons from McAvoy and Lindholm, they will have a much better chance to be competitive in 2025-2026. Lindholm could produce more than 30 points, but he has the potential to have a much greater all-around impact than his point total might suggest.

Nikita Zadorov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	4	20	24	0.29

A towering presence on the Boston blueline, Zadorov led the NHL with 145 penalty minutes last season and recorded more than 200 hits for the first time since 2018-2019. He averaged a career-high 20:37 of ice time per game and given his relative effectiveness, the Bruins would prefer that he not be tasked with the enforcer role. He can still be that intimidating hard hitter on the blueline, but with Jeannot joining the Bruins, that gives the team another option when it comes time to drop the gloves. Zadorov tends to have limited contributions with the puck, but it’s not like he is completely hopeless. He scored 14 goals for Calgary during the 2022-2023 season and had eight points in 13 playoff games for Vancouver in 2023-2024. That is not the level at which he can be expected to sustain production, but those contributions showed that this huge defender could still contribute offensively. He has recorded at least 20 points in four consecutive seasons, so that is the baseline of expectations heading into 2025-2026, and there is not much likelihood that he will stray too far from that output. For fantasy managers, the hits and penalty minute totals make Zadorov relatively appealing in banger leagues.

Mason Lohrei

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	6	24	30	0.37

A second-round pick in 2020, Lohrei is a 6-foot-5 blueliner who emerged as an offensive contributor in his second NHL season. He started to get a bigger role on the power play and 16 of his 33 points were scored with the man advantage. While that power play production was encouraging, last season also showed that Lohrei had some trouble handling a bigger role on the Boston blueline, particularly with Lindholm and McAvoy missing so much time with injuries. There were 138 defencemen to play at least 1,000 five-on-five minutes in 2024-2025 and Lohrei ranked 137th with 3.48 goals against per 60 minutes, ahead of only Chicago’s Alex Vlasic (3.55). While Lohrei’s defensive game could certainly improve, he did have some bad luck contributing to those numbers, as his on-ice save percentage was .881, which was the third lowest among those defenders. It was not goaltender Jeremy Swayman’s finest season, and it had an impact on Lohrei’s defensive results. Looking ahead to 2025-2026, Lohrei should have a more manageable role on the Boston blueline, where he can fill a supporting role as well as getting regular power play time. He should be expected to produce at least 30 points and if he tightens up his defensive game, then Lohrei will go a long way towards securing his place on the Bruins’ depth chart.

Goal

Jeremy Swayman

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
51	20	23	6	3	.902	3.12

Fans could almost feel the moment that the Boston Bruins decided that they were going to strip down and start over last season, and - unfortunately - that included more than just roster moves. Just one season after coming in seventh in Vezina voting, starter Jeremy Swayman picked up a new, uglier league-leading stat last year when he earned the distinction as the goaltender who allowed the most pucks past him over the regular season campaign. His 176 goals allowed were nearly double the average he typically allows in a single season - and while he played in around fifteen more games than is optimal for his best performance, that workload-volume increase certainly didn't account for all of his abysmally poor performance. He was one of the NHL's worst goaltenders in 2024-25, forced to shoulder a harder workload with a weaker tandem partner in Joonas Korpisalo while the skating roster in front of him was slowly but surely shipped out ahead of the trade deadline.

Boston still has a few key core pieces left in their lineup, and Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, and David Pastrnak are all still at points in their career where the team could choose to retool and redevelop their lineup to push back into Wild Card contention if they wish. And the good news is that Korpisalo, who started off the season looking lost positionally for the Bruins, started to settle in from a technical standpoint as the year wore on - so he might be able to shoulder more minutes to give Swayman a bit of a break. But where there used to be one of the most formidable tandems in the league, things look relatively bleak in Boston - and unless Swayman comes back looking ready for action, this could be a tough year in net.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – BOSTON BRUINS – Team Preview

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 20:00:54 +0000

_{BOSTON, MA - APRIL 06: Boston Bruins right wing David Pastrnak (88) drives past Florida Panthers right wing Sam Reinhart (13) during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Florida Panthers on April 6, 2024, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)}

With Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci gone, Boston was expected to see a noteworthy decline in 2023-24, and while the Bruins did indeed have a drop off from their stunning 65-12-5 campaign in 2022-23, they still posted a dominant 47-20-15 record last year. That was thanks in no small part to the overwhelming goaltending of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark, who helped the team tie for fifth defensively (2.70 goals allowed per game), and another stellar offensive showing from David Pastrnak, who provided 47 goals and 110 points across 82 regular-season contests. In the playoffs, Boston managed to eke out a first-round seven-game victory over the Maple Leafs in the first round, but for the second straight year, Boston’s path was ended by the Panthers.

WHAT’S CHANGED? That goaltending duo that served Boston so well over the past three seasons is over. With just one season remaining on his team-friendly four-year, $20 million contract, Ullmark was dealt to Ottawa in exchange for enforcer Mark Kastelic, the 2024 No. 25 draft pick (Dean Letourneau) and a veteran goalie with a mixed record in Joonas Korpisalo. They also lost middle-six forward Jake DeBrusk to free agency. It wasn’t all subtraction, though. Boston made some big splashes on the unrestricted free agent market by inking defensive defenceman Nikita Zadorov and two-way center Elias Lindholm to long-term contracts.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Adding Lindholm goes a long way toward solidifying Boston’s center group, which was a bit of a weakness of theirs last year. Ideally, he’ll gel with either Pastrnak or Brad Marchand after Lindholm was limited to just 44 points last season due in large part to him not quite working out following a trade from Calgary to Vancouver. Another good season out of Marchand, who is now 36, is also important for the Bruins’ attack. However, the most important thing is Boston needs either Korpisalo to be a solid contributor or for Swayman to play significantly more than his previous career high of 43 games. The former might be a tall order, because…

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Korpisalo is coming off a disastrous campaign in which he posted a 3.27 GAA and an .890 save percentage across 55 contests with Ottawa. Some will blame playing for the mediocre Senators for that and expect him to improve with a contender like Boston. That argument is popular, but Ottawa’s xGA/60 last season was a respectable 2.97, and even above that of Boston’s 3.03, which suggests that the Senators’ skaters were playing responsible hockey and instead let down by their goaltenders, so the idea that playing for a better squad might help Korpisalo is on a shaky foundation. Outside of that, there are the concerns about Marchand’s age, and what to expect from Lindholm after his lukewarm showing in Vancouver.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Poitras only played 33 games with Boston in 2023-24 due to injury, but the rookie showed promise when healthy with five goals and 15 points. The addition of Lindholm pretty much locks Poitras out of a top six spot, so he’ll instead likely start the campaign as the third-line center. That’s a fair role for him and coupled with sprinkling of power-play ice time, he should prove to be a solid contributor for Boston this year.

Forwards

David Pastrnak

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	51	56	107	1.30

One of the premier goal scorers in the game, Pastrnak has buried 148 goals in 236 games across the past three seasons, which is tied for second with Leon Draisaitl, behind only Auston Matthews. His 4.67 shots on goal per game in those three seasons also ranks second, trailing only Nathan MacKinnon. Pastrnak is a stellar play driver, and the Bruins have outscored opponents by more than 20 goals with Pastrnak on the ice during five-on-five play in four of the past five seasons. The only exception was the 2020-2021 season, which was shortened by COVID, and in that case, the Bruins still outscored opponents by 15 with Pastrnak on the ice. On a Bruins team that is full of hard-working and smart players, Pastrnak stands out for bringing game-breaking skill to the table in a way that few others can. He has a lethal wrist shot that he can use to score from the top of the circles, especially if he is given time to step into the shot. Although Pastrnak does play an overly physical game, he has good size and is happy to use it to protect the puck so that he can create a more dangerous scoring chance. That Pastrnak continued to be so productive, even after Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retired, shows just how great he really is, able to produce essentially no matter who is dishing him the puck. That puts him in rare company and Pastrnak ought to be expected to score 45-50 goals and 100-plus points in 2024-2025.

Elias Lindholm

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	25	45	70	0.85

After scoring a career-high 82 points with the Calgary Flames in 2021-2022, Lindholm saw his production fall off to 64 points in 2022-2023 then 44 points last season. Inconsistency was an issue for him last season, especially after getting traded to Vancouaver, where he struggled with just 12 points in 26 games but then he showed up in the playoffs with 10 points in 13 games. At his best, he looks like a solid No. 1 centre who can play effectively at both ends of the rink. When he is not at his best, Lindholm is not generating enough offence, and that can cause challenges throughout the lineup. Lindholm was a runner-up in Selke Trophy voting in 2021-2022, so he has credentials as a two-way performer, but he has not been able to approach those levels, either offensively or defensively, since. In Boston, Lindholm should have a chance to play with the best Bruins forwards and that should not only give him a chance to resurrect his offensive game, but also to deliver strong possession numbers because that has generally been a hallmark of Boston’s top forwards forever. Lindholm is excellent on faceoffs, too, winning 56 percent of his draws across the past two seasons. Looking at the 2024-2025 season, Lindholm should be expected to score 20-25 goals and 55-60 points in his first season for the Bruins.

Brad Marchand

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	28	41	69	0.84

Renowned for on-ice behaviour that can be deemed questionable, or worse, 36-year-old Marchand remains highly productive, even if that can sometimes get overshadowed by his antics. He has recorded 67 points in back-to-back seasons, making it eight consecutive seasons that he has reached that threshold. He also recorded a career-high 115 hits in 2023-2024. For years, Marchand has put up elite possession numbers, which was not a surprise when he was playing with Bergeron, but last season was Marchand’s first season falling below 50 percent Corsi, even though he was among the Bruins’ leaders. He remains a productive player at 36-years old and it becomes a delicate balance for players at this stage of their career. At some point, the production tails off, and Marchand’s is down from his peak performance, but he is a driven and competitive player, who does not look like he is going to drop off dramatically. What would affect Marchand’s production is how much he ends up playing with Pastrnak, who has the ability to elevate the production of his linemates. Considering his recent production, Marchand ought to still be able to produce 25 goals and 65 points, which is rare at his age. There were five players over the age of 35 last season that finished with 65 or more points: Sidney Crosby (94), Anze Kopitar (70), Evgeni Malkin (67), Joe Pavelski (67), and Alex Ovechkin (65).

Charlie Coyle

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	23	35	58	0.71

With Bergeron and Krejci retiring, Coyle was the Bruins centre who stepped up the most and he delivered career highs with 25 goals and 60 points while playing a career-high 18:04 per game. He also scored on a career-high 17.0 percent of his shots on goal, so a lot was going well for Coyle last season. Coyle is physically strong and can win puck battles and uses his size to be an effective net-front presence. The majority of Coyle’s 25 goals last season came from in-close, which is fine because he is a strong skater and consistently puts himself in that position and he also has good hands that allow him to make quick moves in-tight to create scoring chances. After the holiday break, Coyle went on a tear, contributing 24 points in 19 games but also managed just one goal and five points in 13 playoff games. While the counting stats were strong for Coyle last season, he had a 45.0 percent Corsi, and 47.4 percent of on-ice expected goals, neither of which represent the kind of play-driving numbers that the Bruins need from a top centre. Coyle did play a lot with Marchand in 2023-2024 so if he has that opportunity again, his offensive output should still be solid, along the lines of 15-20 goals and 45-50 points.

Pavel Zacha

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	34	52	0.63

In the two seasons since he was acquired from the New Jersey Devils, Zacha has set new career highs for points, hitting 59 in 78 games last season. He logged a career-high 18:06 per game and won a career-best 54.8 percent of his faceoffs. Zacha has been riding wildly high percentages in two seasons with the Bruins (104.8 PDO), and the Bruins have outscored opponents 121-72 during five-on-five play with Zacha on the ice. That does not quite fit with someone who has been below 50 percent in terms of goals and expected goals during five-on-five play. Zacha does provide versatility, able to play both wing and centre as well as moving up and down the lineup. His most common linemates last season were Pastrnak, Jake DeBrusk, and Danton Heinen, so Zacha is pretty much a plug-n-play option for Boston. He is a smart player who gets himself into good position to create chances. The challenge for Zacha is to be more aggressive shooting the puck. He scores in a variety of ways, so it’s not like he can only generate offence in one way, but even with more ice time in Boston, he is averaging less than two shots on goal per game, and it is difficult to maintain consistent offensive production with such a low shot rate. With the addition of Elias Lindholm in free agency, there is some uncertainty when it pertains to Zacha’s role. He could very well play on Boston’s top line, or he could move into the middle six somewhere. In any case, it’s fair to expect 20 goals and 50 points from Zacha in 2024-2025.

Trent Frederic

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	17	19	36	0.46

The 26-year-old power forward has made steady consistent progress in his career, reaching career highs in goals (18), assists (22), and points (40) last season. When he first entered the league, he was little more than a fourth-line bruiser, eagerly hitting and fighting to earn his spot. He delivered a career-high 204 hits last season, so Frederic is still capable of making his presence felt on the ice, but his ice time climbed to 13:45 per game and he had a more well-rounded contribution. He may not be climbing too much higher in the lineup, because his offensive skills are not ideal for a top six role, for example, but there is nothing wrong with being a third-line player who can contribute offensively and provide a physical presence. In fact, players who bring physicality like Frederic are in demand around the league. He has been dependent on high percentages in the past couple of seasons, which makes him a prime candidate for regression, so it is not likely that he will exceed last season’s totals. However, 15 goals and 35 points, with perhaps another 200 hits, does give Frederic some appeal for fantasy managers in deep leagues.

Morgan Geekie

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	22	24	46	0.57

Signed as a free agent by the Bruins after the Kraken did not give him a qualifying offer last summer, Geekie stepped into a bigger role with Boston and set career highs in goals (17), assists (22), and points (39), while playing a career-high 15:25 per game. He also recorded a career-best 137 hits. At 6-foot-3, Geekie has size and speed, but now appears to have gained confidence when it comes to making plays offensively. Among Bruins skaters to play at least 1000 five-on-five minutes, only David Pastrnak and Jake DeBrusk had higher rates of on-ice expected goals per 60 minutes. Geekie does get power play time, as 12 of his 39 points last season came with the man advantage. This is not to suggest that Geekie should be climbing further up the depth chart. Based on his results to this point in his career, the 26-year-old should be a third-line player for Boston and continue to make a solid contribution at both ends of the ice. Given his jump forward last season, there is a new normal for Geekie, one that puts him consistently in a top nine role. As a result, it’s fair to expect 12-15 goals and 35 points in 2024-2025.

Matthew Poitras

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
71	12	21	33	0.46

Only 19 years old at the start of last season, Poitras was a surprise to make the team out of training camp and he had 15 points in his first 28 games before falling down the depth chart and going scoreless in five games with limited ice time before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Poitras has good speed, sound instincts, and soft hands that serve him well around the net. Provided that he is healthy again, Poitras should have a spot in Boston’s top nine, which will give him an opportunity to contribute, though it could be challenging for the young centre to move up the depth chart in 2024-2025. Although his season was shortened by injury, Poitras showed enough to be excited about his potential. The Bruins controlled 54.3 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Poitras on the ice. James van Riemsdyk was the only Bruins player to play more than 300 five-on-five minutes to rank higher. As a young player, Poitras also has so much room to improve. He won 43.7 percent of his faceoffs as a rookie and generated only 1.21 shots on goal per game, which is far too low to sustain consistent offensive production. It would be reasonable to anticipate Poitras contributing 35 points this season, and he has potential for more if he somehow finds his way to a higher slot on the depth chart.

DEFENCE

Charlie McAvoy

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	7	35	42	0.55

One of the best all-around defencemen in the game, McAvoy tends not to get full credit for his play because his point totals are not as gaudy as some of the other top blueliners. Nevertheless, McAvoy continues to drive play in the right direction and has never had a season where the Bruins have been less than +10 against the opposition during five-on-five play with him on the ice. H has finished in the top five of Norris Trophy voting twice, though his defensive metrics like shots and expected goals against have climbed a little since then, knocking him further out of the race. McAvoy is a strong puckhandler and passer who is not at all shy about playing a physical game. He finished last season with matching career highs of 159 hits and 159 blocked shots. McAvoy recorded 34 even-strength points in 2023-2024, which left him tied for 21st among defencemen with Carolina’s Jaccob Slavin. McAvoy is still Boston’s No. 1 option on the point, and he quarterbacks the top power play unit, so it is not like he is left without opportunities to produce points. A fair expectation for 2024-2025 would have McAvoy contributing 10 goals and 50 points, with room for some upside if his power play numbers start to click.

Hampus Lindholm

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	4	21	25	0.32

After finishing with a career-high 53 points and finishing fourth in Norris Trophy voting in 2022-2023, Lindholm dropped to three goals and 26 points last season. In the 163 games that Lindholm has played with the Bruins, Boston has outscored the opposition by 61 goals during five-on-five play. This while starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone. Lindholm has good size and is an excellent skater, which allows him to attack offensively and quickly shut down opportunities on the defensive end. Lindholm appears to have the talent to challenge for Norris Trophies, but that is only going to happen when he is putting up numbers offensively and that is unlikely since he has surpassed 35 points in a season just once in his career. Last season, Lindholm’s shot rate dropped to 1.36 per game, the lowest mark of his career. If he is going to contribute offensively, launching more pucks at the opposing net is likely to help. While there are clear limitations to Lindholm’s offensive production, especially if he loses second unit power play time, he can go on streaks, too. Around midseason, he recorded 12 assists in a 15-game span. That kind of burst gives him a higher floor and Lindholm should still be capable of delivering 30-35 points for the Bruins.

Nikita Zadorov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	9	18	27	0.34

A mammoth physical presence on the blueline, Zadorov is listed at 6-foot-6 and 248 pounds, and he is not shy about using that size to make his mark on the game. He racked up a career-high 125 penalty minutes last season while delivering 177 hits, the seventh consecutive season that he finished with more than 170 hits. That ability to affect the game with size and aggressiveness is what made Zadorov in demand as a free agent, but it should be noted that he has never played 20 minutes per game for a full season in the National Hockey League. Over the course of his career, Zadorov’s possession numbers have tended to be slightly positive, and it’s enough to consider him a reliable contributor in that role, without necessarily wanting to feed him big minutes. In Boston, He might see a little more ice time, but there is a limit to what can be reasonably expected of him. Zadorov reached the 20-point plateau last season for the third straight season, then kicked it up a notch in the playoffs, scoring four goals and eight points in 13 games. It’s not fair to expect him to keep that pace over the long haul but that little sample, along with the 14 goals Zadorov scored in 2022-2023 suggests that there is some latent offensive ability that can be brought to the forefront from time to time. Zadorov’s fantasy appeal will lie in banger leagues where he delivers hits and penalty minutes, but he should be able to chip in 20-25 points in his first season with the Bruins.

Mason Lohrei

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	5	17	22	0.29

The rangy 6-foot-5 blueliner made his NHL debut last season and flashed potential that he could become a valuable contributor on the Boston blueline for years to come. A second-round pick in 2020, Lohrei played a couple of seasons at Ohio State and a total of 29 AHL (regular season plus playoff) games before getting called up to the Big Bruins. His results in 41 games were relatively uneven. He scored 13 points and, among the seven defencemen that played at least 500 five-on-five minutes for the Bruins last season, Lohrei ranked fifth in Corsi percentage (45.7 percent) and sixth in expected goals percentage (46.8 percent). That suggests he may be worth a longer look but hardly assures him of success at this level. In the playoffs, though, Lohrei contributed four points in 11 games and ranked second among Boston defencemen in Corsi percentage (48.2 percent) and fourth in expected goals percentage (53.9 percent). That postseason showing added a dose of optimism to Lohrei’s future as he and McAvoy started to show progress as defence partners. Lohrei does possess intriguing puck skills for such a big guy, skates well and uses his reach effectively, so the 2024-2025 season should be about securing his full-time spot on the Boston blueline. He is one of Boston’s more capable puckhandling defencemen, so 25 points is a reasonable expectation.

Andrew Peeke

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	2	9	11	0.14

Acquired from Columbus at the trade deadline, Peeke has an opportunity for a fresh start in Boston. In the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 seasons, he was one of four defencemen to record both 350 hits and 350 blocked shots across those two seasons. (Brayden McNabb, Jacob Trouba, and Moritz Seider were the others.) Peeke is a warrior, a 6-foot-3 defenceman who does not hesitate to lay his body on the line, but the Blue Jackets cut his ice time by more than five minutes per game last season and made him a frequent healthy scratch. In Boston, Peeke was reasonably effective in the regular season, with the Bruins managing 52.7 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with him on the ice. He was not as effective in the postseason and missed time with a broken finger, but there is a reasonable expectation for him to fit as a physical third-pair defender who can kill penalties. He has never had a major offensive impact and that doesn’t figure to change. Still, there might be fantasy appeal for managers in deep banger leagues that would appreciate 150-plus hits and blocked shots to go with maybe 15 points.

GOAL

Jeremy Swayman

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
59	32	20	6	4	0.912	2.60

Joonas Korpisalo

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
23	13	8	3	1	0.302	2.88

It was the fault of neither Jeremy Swayman nor Linus Ullmark that the Boston Bruins once again bowed out early from the Stanley Cup chase this past spring. Nevertheless, the Bruins - perennially up against the salary cap and sitting on a wealth of goaltending talent - opted to make their biggest move of the offseason in net, sending Linus Ullmark to the Ottawa Senators in a swap that brought a struggling Joonas Korpisalo into the fold to partner up with Swayman come October.

Korpisalo looked particularly vulnerable behind the Ottawa Senators during his 2023-24 campaign. He was goaded into moving out of position by opponents whenever the defensive line in front of him suffered any kind of breakdown, leaving him with an abysmal stat line and a fresh host of bad habits to pack up with him in his move to TD Garden. Luckily, he'll enter a much calmer environment in Boston with far less pressure on him specifically; the crease is now Swayman's primary domain, and the Bruins should see his workload uptick enough to possibly even give him that long-awaited attention in the Vezina conversation. Even during a season in which Boston seemed to struggle at times with re-establishing their identity post-Patrice Bergeron, Swayman's statistical proficiency and ability to settle into a good rhythm even after a bad goal or game served as a calming presence throughout the year. It feels a little surprising that the Bruins are sticking with Korpisalo as their number two, but ultimately the team made a strong statement with that choice: this is Jeremy Swayman's starting gig.

MCKEEN’S 2024 WORLD JUNIOR CHAMPIONSHIP GUIDE – Team Canada

Derek Neumeier — Sat, 23 Dec 2023 16:16:29 +0000

The winners of both the 2022 and 2023 iterations of this tournament, the motivation for Canada this time around is obvious: keep that streak alive. A World Juniors three-peat wouldn't be a new or groundbreaking accomplishment for the Great White North, since they've managed to pull off not one but two staggering five-championship runs in the past, first from 1992 to 1997 and then again from 2005 to 2010. However, this particular group won't be quite as star-studded as some of those prior ones were, and are now considered more of a marginal favourite, at best, to skate out of Gothenburg with gold medals around their necks.

The biggest difference this year for Canada will be the absence of a true game-breaking talent, which Connor Bedard proved himself to be multiple times in Halifax, often putting the whole team on his back. This time around they will have to work a whole lot more as a cohesive team, and on paper they certainly have as much skill, depth and balance as they need. This is, after all, a roster with 10 prospects who have already been selected in the 1^st round of the NHL draft, with a nicely proportional split of six forwards and four defensemen. There are also five players here who have already dressed for NHL regular season games, providing an advantage of experience that no other nation will be able to match.

There is one major ruffle for Canada, though, and stop me if you've heard this one before: the goaltending is a question mark. It might even be the biggest question mark we've seen for them at this position in the past decade of tournaments, if not longer. The team's brass has brought three netminders along for the ride, two of whom were each passed over in both years of their draft eligibility thus far, while the third was drafted but has struggled mightily this season and is the youngest of the trio. It's anyone's guess as to which one will still be between the pipes when this team's tournament ends.

With the United States and Sweden both fielding strong rosters of their own, this group of Canadians will need to find their collective identity early on and do everything they can to not lose track of it.

BASEL, SWITZERLAND - APRIL 29: Canada's Macklin Celebrini #17 celebrates after scoring during the Sweden vs Canada Semifinal Round action at 2023 IIHF Ice Hockey U18 World Championship at St. Jakob Arena on April 29, 2023 in Basel, Switzerland. (Photo by Matt Zambonin/IIHF)

Key Players:

Owen Beck — C/W

Beck is the only returning player from last year's Canadian roster, which will bestow upon him additional responsibilities and pressure, even though he previously only dressed for three of the games and didn't see a lot of ice time. Luckily for him he'll get to play more of a Swiss army knife kind of role here, where he can move around the lineup and get slotted in wherever his coaches think his talents — primarily his blazing speed and consistent work rate — will be best utilized. Also making matters a little easier is that he went on a deep OHL playoff run with the Peterborough Petes this past spring, playing a leading role as they won the league title and advanced to the Memorial Cup, so he's already quite familiar with high-stakes hockey.

Macklin Celebrini — C/W

Let's get this out of the way first: with all due respect to Celebrini, he's not in the same echelon as Bedard was last year, even though he also made the team as a 17-year-old and will almost assuredly get picked 1^st overall in the following NHL draft. That said, he's still one hell of a player, and could genuinely turn out to be Canada's most important offensive weapon. He's been utterly dominant this season with Boston University despite being the youngest player in all of college hockey, so it stands to reason that he could also excel here against competition that is predominantly older than him. Mature and wise well beyond his years, there's nothing that he can't do when he steps over the boards, but if anything really pops for him it will probably be his big-time shot.

Nate Danielson — C/W

This World Juniors will be Danielson's debut at the major international level, and if he's not excited yet about playing on the bigger ice surfaces of Europe then he probably will be shortly after the puck is dropped. He's a magnificent skater and incredible athlete, and he'll really get to show those attributes off with all the newfound time and space that he'll get to work with. He regularly kills penalties with the Wheat Kings back in Brandon, and if Canada extends those duties for him — which they likely will — then he'll be a shorthanded scoring threat every time he's on the job thanks to his straight-line speed. He's another plug-and-play forward who could see his usage and linemates fluctuate depending on what his coaches need in any given moment.

Maveric Lamoureux — D

A 6-foot-7 giant with legitimately high-end skating ability, Lamoureux could be an enormous headache for opposing forwards all tournament. With his long stick and fluid crossovers he's uniquely equipped on international ice to keep the play to the outside and prevent high-danger chances while defending off-puck. He will also have more breathing room to move or skate the puck out of his zone when he does get it, which can often be an issue for him back home. He's a point-per-game player right now in the QMJHL, but his role with Canada will undoubtedly be as one of the go-to defenders for penalty killing, tough match-ups and defending late leads. He'll be at his most effective if he can keep his game simple.

Tristan Luneau — D

The reigning QMJHL Defenseman of the Year, Luneau is going to be a minute-munching monster for the Canadians because he's superbly versatile, poised and responsible. There's a quiet brilliance to how he plays, always calculating the play in front of him as it unfolds and then making the corresponding correct decisions, which makes a huge difference for whatever team he's on even if it doesn't get him into many highlight packages. The fact that he's been playing professional hockey all season, split between the NHL and the AHL, will help close the gap of an advantage that is always held by the top European nations. This event could be a huge coming-out party for a player who isn't a well-known hockey name yet but will be eventually.

Denton Mateychuk — D

Mateychuk has been a powerplay monster this season in the WHL, with 15 of his 35 points (in just 24 games) coming on the man advantage, so you can expect him to be Canada's blueline anchor in these situations in this tournament. That top unit in Moose Jaw has some elite forwards on it, so he'll already know how to strike the right balance between when to be the focal point and when to defer to his mates. It might take him a few games to get fully comfortable with that kind of pressure, however, as his only international experience to date came in a limited role as a 16-year-old at the 2021 IIHF U18s. The quality of penalty killers opposing him will be something new.

Fraser Minten — C/W

This will be Minten's first time donning the maple leaf, but don't expect him to get nervous or overwhelmed — if someone plays a few games with the Toronto Maple Leafs as a teenager then everything else in their hockey-playing lives probably seems like small potatoes in comparison. Team Canada's locker room is his fourth different one this season, going from Toronto back to the WHL's Kamloops Blazers before getting dealt to the Saskatoon Blades shortly after, so he should be able to gel with his unfamiliar new teammates a little more quickly and easily than most, which could be a huge benefit in such a short tournament. Expect to see him on the ice a lot during important, white-knuckle moments, especially defensive situations.

Matthew Poitras — C/W

It came as a surprise that the Stanley Cup-contending Boston Bruins allowed Poitras to leave them and join this roster, considering he's already scored 13 points as an NHL rookie and hasn't looked out of place at all through 27 games. But hey, Hockey Canada will happily take the early Christmas gift. It's an especially welcome addition because he brings well-rounded offensive expertise to a squad that might have a tougher time scoring goals than fans usually expect. He wasn't part of the selection camp or warm-up games, though, so he will likely need some time before he can fully adjust and get his feet under him. Once that does happen, he could turn out to be Canada's ace in the hole, as no other country will get to utilize a prospect with this much NHL experience.

Carson Rehkopf — C/W

Rehkopf has been a goal-scoring machine this season with the OHL's Kitchener Rangers, amazingly maintaining a goal-per-game pace and currently leading the entire league with 31 tallies. He can fill the back of the net in a variety of ways, but it's his ability to finish from distance that will likely be the most valuable for the type of hockey that we will see. A plus skater, he will be able to keep up just fine if things turn into a track meet, and he'll be one of the few Canadian forwards who is a serious threat to single-handedly score off the rush. But if his coaches need him to assume a bottom six role instead that shouldn't be an issue, as he did that job very well at the 2022 Hlinka Gretzky Cup

Matt Savoie — W

Don't be surprised if Savoie comes out of this tournament as its leading scoring, or at least comes close. Not only does he possess the pure skill and clever creativity needed to be a premier offensive generator in best-on-best competition, he's one of Canada's best options for times when they need a goal the most. Whether it's a key powerplay or a race to tie the game, his name is going to be one of the first bodies to come over the boards. He is an expert at playing with — and elevating — talented linemates, but he also has the ability to provide a spark all by himself if he has to, and he usually knows the right path to take in the heat of the moment.

Sleeper:

Mathis Rousseau — G

Two NHL entry drafts have come and gone without Rousseau hearing his name get called, but the third time could be the charm if he backstops Canada to another World Junior gold medal. How's that for motivation? Now, it needs to be said that the starting job on this team is still up for grabs overall and could be subject to change at any moment. That said, Rousseau has the best club stats coming in, and he backstopped Halifax to the QMJHL final last season, so he's the slight favourite to be The Guy come the medal rounds. He's a quick, focused, consistent goalie who does a great job reading the play and stopping the shots from distance that he sees, and his defenders should be able to help create that environment for him. Is he up to the task? A nation's hockey hopes might depend on it.

FANTASY: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Farabee stepping up for Flyers – Injuries open door to opportunity – Goalies bouncing back – Early-season underachievers that might offer potential buy-low value + much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 17 Nov 2023 19:43:45 +0000

ANAHEIM, CA - NOVEMBER 10: Philadelphia Flyers left wing Joel Farabee (86) with the puck during an NHL hockey game against the Anaheim Ducks played on November 10, 2023 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Joel Farabee is stepping up for the Flyers, injuries open the door for opportunities, goalies bouncing back, and early-season underachievers that might offer potential buy-low value.

#1 Although Philadelphia Flyers winger Joel Farabee hit a career high with 39 points (15 G, 24 A) last season, it was widely regarded as a disappointing campaign. He was recovering from disc replacement surgery in his neck and both his shot rate and shooting percentage declined. This season, however, Farabee is a vital part of the Flyers’ ability to exceed expectations. He has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in 16 games and all 12 points have come during five-on-five play; his 3.52 points per 60 ranks ninth in the league and while his lack of power play production does put a ceiling on Farabee’s potential production, he has already taken steps forward from last season.

#2 Buffalo Sabres star centre Tage Thompson has been lost for “less than a couple of months” with a wrist injury. His absence will require Dylan Cozens and Casey Mittelstadt to anchor the top two centre spots on the Sabres depth chart. Cozens has one assist in his past six games and is averaging less ice time per game than he did last season, so this will provide ample opportunity for him to get back on track. Mittelstadt has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 16 games, though with just 21 shots, he does have room to increase his offensive impact.

#3 The Anaheim Ducks placed centre Trevor Zegras on the injured list with a groin injury and he had just two points (1 G, 1 A) in 12 games when they decided that he needed a break. That theoretically could open the door for more ice time for rookie centre Leo Carlsson, who has eight points (6 G, 2 A) in 11 games, but he’s already averaging 18:18 of ice time per game when he plays, so it is difficult to expect and 18-year-old to get much more ice time. Maybe it’s more reasonable to expect Mason McTavish to take on a little more, as the 20-year-old has 16 points (7 G, 9 A) in 16 games while logging 17:32 of ice time per game.

#4 A neck injury has put Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen on the shelf, creating an opportunity for Valeri Nichushkin to skate with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen on Colorado’s top line. MacKinnon has been Nichushkin’s most common linemate this season already, but adding Rantanen does spice things up a bit. Nichushkin has produced five points (4 G, 1 A) and 18 shots on goal in the past five games.

#5 Florida Panthers defencemen Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad are both nearing returns to action, on the precipice of making their seasons debuts for last season’s Stanley Cup finalists. The most intriguing effect will likely fall on Oliver Ekman-Larsson, the 32-year-old defender whose play has been in decline for several seasons. Given a new lease on life in Florida, he has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) in 16 games, but half of those points have come on the power play and Montour’s return could take away Ekman-Larsson’s top unit power play role.

#6 An upper-body injury has landed Nashville Predators centre Tommy Novak on injured reserve for the next four-to-six weeks. With 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in 14 games, he is ranked third in scoring on the Predators and half of those points have come on the power play. Cody Glass gets first crack at Novak’s ice time, but he had better pick up the pace as he has yet to record a point in seven games this season.

#7 New Jersey Devils centre Jack Hughes appears to be on the verge of returning from his upper-body injury. The Devils’ playmaking centre has 20 points (5 G, 15 A) in 10 games, outrageous production and, given the landscape among the league’s top scorers, Hughes has a legitimate case to at least be in the race for the Art Ross Trophy. Michael McLeod, who has three points (1 G, 2 A) in the past five games, is likely to slide back down the depth chart when Hughes is ready to return.

#8 It seems that nearly every week there is some example of how unpredictable goaltending can be from one season to the next, never mind smaller samples like one week to the next or one game to the next. Consider the case of St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington, who had a .897 save percentage in 98 games over the previous two seasons. This season, his save percentage is up to XXXX and, at least before the Blues were blown out by the San Jose Sharks Thursday night (in a game started by Joel Hofer), goaltending had been helping the Blues get back to a more competitive level.

#9 Anaheim Ducks netminder John Gibson was an elite performer early in his career, posting a .921 save percentage from 2013-2014 through 2018-2019, but then the burden of playing behind a suspect Ducks defence started to catch up to him and from 2019-2020 through 2022-2023, his save percentage had fallen to .902. This season, however, Gibson has a .927 save percentage in nine starts. With the Ducks more competitive than expected, Gibson is once again a valuable commodity for fantasy managers.

#10 In the previous two seasons, with the Maple Leafs and Blackhawks, Petr Mrazek had a .893 save percentage. In eight games this season, he is rocking a .921 save percentage. The wins don’t come easily in the Windy City, but if Mrazek is going to play at this above-average level, he is going to be fantasy relevant, which was not a widely held expectation for him at the start of the season.

#11 Edmonton Oilers left winger Evander Kane erupted for a hat trick in Wednesday’s 4-3 overtime win against Seattle. Following a slow start, Kane has produced 14 points (7 G, 7 A) and 34 shots on goal in the past 10 games, which puts him up among the top wingers because when the scoring is there, he also generates shots and provides a physical presence (56 hits in 15 games).

#12 Matt Duchene did not record a point in his first four games for the Dallas Stars, which saw him get waived in many fantasy hockey leagues, but the trend has reversed in a hurry. In 10 games since, Duchene has produced 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 25 shots on goal, thriving on a line with Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment.

#13 Part of Winnipeg’s return in the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade, Alex Iafallo has been a quality supporting winger for the Jets. He could stand to shoot the puck more, but Iafallo has nine points (1 G, 8 A) in his past six games, and he is riding shotgun with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele on the Jets’ top line as well as holding down a spot on Winnipeg’s top power play unit.

#14 After a brilliant performance at the World Championships, 21-year-old Buffalo Sabres winger J.J. Peterka entered this season with some expectations. He started slowly, but has now delivered nine points (4 G, 5 A) in the past nine games, a sign that he could be ready to make a leap in only his second NHL campaign.

#15 A couple of early AHL call-ups have made an instant impact in the NHL. Calgary’s Connor Zary, a first-round pick in 2020, has six points (3 G, 3 A) in seven games, though he has just one shot on goal in the past three, leaving him with 11 shots on goal in those seven games. That needs to bounce back up for his production to have a higher likelihood of sustainability. Zary and fellow rookie Martin Pospisil have been flanking Nazem Kadri on the Flames’ second line. Toronto’s Nick Robertson is no longer Calder Trophy eligible after various stints with the Maple Leafs in the past three seasons, but the 22-year-old does have four points (2 G, 2 A) in four games since getting promoted from the AHL, where he had 11 points (5 G, 6 A) in nine games. Robertson is skating with Max Domi and Calle Jarnkrok in a third line that suddenly has some offensive pop to it.

#16 The leader in expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 50 minutes of ice time) during the month of November is Bruins left winger Brad Marchand (2.09), ahead of Alex Tuch (2.06), Timo Meier (2.04), Connor McMichael (2.02), and Kevin Fiala (2.00). McMichael stands out of that group as he is not nearly as established as an offensive force. With Nicklas Backstrom stepping away from the Capitals, McMichael is looking at a bigger role and has four points (2 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal in the past four games and could be a buy-low option in deep leagues. At the other end of the spectrum, there are some forwards who have not been generating chances and it is no surprise if fourth liners have a low rate of expected goals, but Alex Newhook (0.19), Kaapo Kakko (0.21), Matthew Poitras (0.33), and Pavel Zacha (0.36) – all of whom have some expectation of offensive production - are among the forwards in the bottom 20 when it comes to individual expected goals in November.

#17 Looking specifically at five-on-four power play situations, which players are being put in position to score with the man advantage? The leader in individual expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 40 five-on-four minutes this season) is Florida’s Sam Reinhart (4.05), ahead of Joe Pavelski (3.67), Sidney Crosby (3.53), Drake Batherson (3.35), Vincent Trocheck (3.31), and Tommy Novak (3.28).

#18 While there are some players scoring on a ridiculously high percentage of shots, that likely won’t be sustainable – looking at you, Alexis Lafreniere (29.2%) and Brock Boeser (27.1%) – there are players at the other end who are generating shots on goal and not finding the net. Pittsburgh’s Rickard Rakell has zero goals on 40 shots. He has had some seasons in which his shooting percentages are terrible, but zero for forty is a real struggle, especially for a player who is skating on a line with Reilly Smith and Evgeni Malkin, two skilled linemates. Others that might be buy-low considerations with zero goals: Josh Anderson (38 shots) and T.J. Oshie (28 shots).

#19 Spinning this to the players that have underachieved the most relative to their expected goals thus far, Oshie (-5.54) and Anderson (-5.31) have fallen shortest of their expected goals totals, followed by Matthew Tkachuk (-5.00), Anders Lee (-4.64), and Rakell (-4.31). These guys are getting chances but can’t finish. On the other hand, the players exceeding their expected goals by the widest margin thus far are: Kyle Connor (6.29), Alex DeBrincat (6.07), Frank Vatrano (5.96), Teuvo Teravainen (5.48), and Chris Kreider (5.08). These are players off to great starts, but sustainability could be a challenge.

#20 One of the bigger tests of any buy-low theory is Columbus Blue Jackets left winger Johnny Gaudreau. He and Patrick Laine were benched in Thursday’s 3-2 loss to Arizona, and Gaudreau has a paltry six points (1 G, 5 A) and 40 shots on goal through 17 games. Gaudreau’s shot rate is down to 2.35 per game and if he can’t make it work with a shooter like Laine, then the Blue Jackets need to make some changes because it makes no sense to invest so much in Gaudreau, only to let him wither on the vine with a line that isn’t working. Gaudreau and Laine have controlled the flow of play to some degree at five-on-five, with 57.3% Corsi, but they are pulling just 40.9% of expected goals and that isn’t going to cut it. It’s notable that Gaudreau has had more success with his most common linemate, Boone Jenner, with a 58.5% Corsi and 58.0% of expected goals. Somehow, some way, the Blue Jackets need to find the right fit for Gaudreau and fantasy managers can lurk and wait for the answer because Gaudreau’s value right now is about as low as it could get.

FANTASY HOCKEY: The Week Ahead – October 23rd to 29th

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 23 Oct 2023 17:18:40 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - OCTOBER 12: Detroit Red Wings right wing Alex DeBrincat (93) celebrates his goal during a game between the Detroit Red Wings and New Jersey Devils on October 12, 2023 at Prudential Center in the Newark, New Jersey.(Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

After adding forwards Alex DeBrincat and J.T. Compher, backup goaltender James Reimer and defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere over the summer, Detroit was positioned to take a step forward from its 35-37-10 finish in 2022-23. Few would have anticipated the Red Wings’ early dominance though.

With a 6-2 victory over Calgary on Sunday, Detroit is now 5-1-0 and its summer acquisitions have played a huge part in that. DeBrincat has eight (!) goals and 12 points in six contests, Compher has a goal and four points, Gostisbehere has two markers and six points and Reimer has a 1.00 GAA and a .963 save percentage to win his first two starts with Detroit. Of course, they haven’t been the only factors, most notably Dylan Larkin has 11 points in six contests, but it’s rare to see a team not only get so hot out of the gate, but to achieve that primarily through the strength of new additions.

Naturally, this isn’t going to last. DeBrincat isn’t going to maintain his current pace and finish with 109 goals (though besting his career high of 41 is certainly possible). Still, Detroit figures to be a serious contender for a playoff spot this year, and when you remember that the Atlantic Division also features Boston, Ottawa, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Florida and Buffalo, it becomes clear that this is going to be a very tough fight.

Edmonton has a tough fight on its hands too. The Oilers are off to a disappointing 1-3-1 record, due in part to them scoring a underwhelming 2.60 goals per game, and now Connor McDavid is expected to miss the next week or two with an upper-body injury. Others have to step up in his absence with one forward in particular to keep an eye on being Warren Foegele. He’s typically not a major offensive force and has averaged just 11:44 of ice time this season, but with McDavid out, Foegele might be elevated to a top-six spot. Mattias Janmark, who has averaged 12:05 through five contests, might also see his playing time noticeably increase during McDavid’s absence.

Boston Bruins

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/24/2023	BOS	CHI
Thu	10/26/2023	ANA	BOS
Sat	10/28/2023	DET	BOS

Watching Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retire over the summer hasn’t stopped the Bruins from going 5-0-0 to open the season, though that’s thanks to goaltenders Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark allowing just seven goals thus far rather than any forward stepping up to fill the void left by Boston’s former centers.

Regardless, Boston has a chance to keep that winning streak when they play in Chicago on Tuesday. The Bruins will face another rebuilding squad Thursday when they host Anaheim, though Saturday will feature a tougher home contest versus Detroit. The Red Wings with their red hot offense might prove to be the first major test for the Bruins’ goaltending.

As it is, the Bruins have already beaten each of Chicago and Anaheim once this season, so they’ll look for more of the same in those contests. Boston has been using its starters evenly so far, so if it continues its present rotation, Ullmark will likely play against Chicago and Swayman will get Anaheim. Both should be good options in daily leagues.

Boston’s offense has been a lot less impressive and what production there has been is primarily thanks to David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand, who have combined for nine goals and 15 points. Rookie Matthew Poitras did have his first big night Sunday though, providing two goals. He’s playing on the second line and getting some power-play ice time, so if you’re looking for a lower profile player to go after in Boston, he’s not a bad option.

Carolina Hurricanes

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/24/2023	CAR	TBL
Thu	10/26/2023	SEA	CAR
Fri	10/27/2023	SJS	CAR

Last year, facing the Lightning followed by the Kraken would have been a rough combo, but so far in 2023-24, those are two winnable games, especially for a team like Carolina. When the Hurricanes play in Tampa Bay on Tuesday, they’ll be up against a lackluster 2-2-2 team due in no small part to goaltender Jonas Johansson posting a 3.58 GAA and a .902 save percentage through five contests. Andrei Vasilevskiy (back) is still unavailable, though, so the Lightning are likely to once again put him in net.

Seattle, which will play in Carolina on Thursday, has fared even worse, getting off to a 1-4-1 start. The Kraken were one of the league’s top teams offensively last season, but they’ve averaged just 1.83 goals per game this year. The Hurricanes will round out the week with a home game against the rebuilding Sharks on Friday.

Seth Jarvis and Jesperi Kotkaniemi have been fantastic over Carolina’s first six contests, each providing seven points. They’re two young forwards who entered the campaign with plenty of untapped offensive upside, so this might just be the start of their respective breakout seasons.

Stefan Noesen is far less likely to put up big numbers this season, but after scoring a goal and six points over the last three contests, he’s worthy of a short-term pickup to take advantage of his hot streak mixed with the Hurricanes’ favorable schedule.

Columbus Blue Jackets

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/24/2023	ANA	CBJ
Thu	10/26/2023	CBJ	MTL
Sat	10/28/2023	NYI	CBJ

The Blue Jackets aren’t expected to do particularly well this season, but they are hot at the moment, winning three of their last four games. To make matters better, they have two very winnable contests ahead of them, first hosting Anaheim on Tuesday then facing Montreal on Thursday. Columbus will conclude the week with a home game versus the Islanders, which are projected to be a good, but not great, squad.

One of the keys to Columbus’ recent success has been Justin Danforth, who has three goals and four points in his last four contests. The 30-year-old is a bottom-six forward, so don’t expect him to finish the campaign with significant offensive numbers, but with him hot and the Blue Jackets’ first two opponents this week featuring questionable defenses, Danforth is worthy of consideration as a short-term grab.

With Patrik Laine (upper body) potentially out for one or more games this week, which might result in Columbus leaning more on Kirill Marchenko. In the Blue Jackets’ first contest without Laine on Saturday, Marchenko logged 19:04 of ice time, including 3:27 on the power play -- up from an average of 16:02 over his first four outings this season. Marchenko had 21 goals and 25 points in 59 contests as a rookie last season and three assists in five appearances in 2023-24, but he has the potential to do better and is in a position to succeed.

Detroit Red Wings

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/24/2023	SEA	DET
Thu	10/26/2023	WPG	DET
Sat	10/28/2023	DET	BOS

As noted above, the Red Wings are off to a fantastic start and they’ll look to keep that going with games at home versus Seattle and Winnipeg on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before facing a big test in Saturday’s road contest versus Boston.

Detroit’s incredible offensive output to begin the campaign has allowed some strong performances to fly under the radar. In particular, Joe Veleno has three goals over his last two contests, which might be one of the biggest stories if he was playing on a different team. Veleno is a former first-round pick (30th overall in 2018), so he does have upside, but his position on the Red Wings’ third line and lack of a power-play role makes it hard to recommend him as anything more than a short-term pickup.

Speaking of which, I think grabbing Daniel Sprong would be an interesting choice ahead of the Seattle game. Sprong spent the previous two campaigns with the Kraken and like Detroit’s other summer additions, he’s off to a strong start this season with two goals and four points in six contests. I think there’s a solid chance he’ll be a factor against his former team.

Montreal Canadiens

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Mon	10/23/2023	MTL	BUF
Tue	10/24/2023	NJD	MTL
Thu	10/26/2023	CBJ	MTL
Sat	10/28/2023	WPG	MTL

The Canadiens have a full schedule this week with a road game in Buffalo on Monday before heading home to host New Jersey on Tuesday, Columbus on Thursday and Winnipeg on Saturday. That’s solid competition throughout, but I’m still going to highlight the Canadiens by virtue of them getting a four-game set, including three at home, this week.

Sean Monahan has gotten off to a strong start with two goals and four points in four contests. The 2022-23 campaign might have been known as his comeback season had he stayed healthy, but that could happen this season instead. Although his tenure with Calgary ended poorly, he might finish 2023-24 with 50-60 points.

One Canadiens player who unfortunately will not have a good season is Kirby Dach. His campaign ended when he suffered torn right ACL and MCL on Oct. 14. His absence might lead to Michael Pezzetta playing regularly this season after spending the first two contests as a healthy scratch. Pezzetta won’t provide much offensively, but he should be a good source of PIM and hits.

If you’re looking for points, Tanner Pearson is a better bet. The middle-six winger isn’t worth more than a short-term pickup, but he is going into the week on a three-game scoring streak, contributing two goals and an assist over that span.

New Jersey Devils

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/24/2023	NJD	MTL
Wed	10/25/2023	WSH	NJD
Fri	10/27/2023	BUF	NJD
Sun	10/29/2023	MIN	NJD
Fri	11/10/2023	WSH	NJD

In addition to their road game against Montreal on Tuesday, the Devils will have a home stretch versus Washington, Buffalo and Minnesota on Wednesday, Friday and Sunday, respectively. The Capitals and Sabres have plenty of major offensive weapons, but Buffalo has averaged just 2.40 goals per game while Washington has somehow managed 1.25.

That’s good news for Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid. The Devils goaltending duo has struggled out of the gate, posting a combined 3.45 GAA and .892 save percentage while splitting the workload evenly, but they’re capable of better and perhaps those matchups will serve as an opportunity for them to turn things around.

On offense, things have been going far better for the Devils with Jack Hughes being especially effective, scoring four goals and 10 points in just four contests. Injuries are becoming an issue though with Erik Haula (upper body), Nico Hischier (upper body) and Tomas Nosek (lower body) all day-to-day. We’ve already seen Michael McLeod jump from averaging 10:17 over New Jersey’s first two games to 15:00 in the last two, and he might get top-six minutes until one or more of those forwards return.

Vegas Golden Knights

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/24/2023	PHI	VGK
Fri	10/27/2023	CHI	VGK
Sat	10/28/2023	VGK	LAK

Winning the Stanley Cup didn’t satiate the Golden Knights or leave them tired. They’ve opened the season with a 6-0-0 record and have a solid chance of continuing that streak at home Tuesday versus Philadelphia. Vegas is also set to host Chicago on Friday and play in Los Angeles on Saturday.

The Golden Knights’ early success has been due to their deep offense. Nicolas Roy, Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault have each provided three goals while Chandler Stephenson and William Karlsson have each found the back of the net twice. Defenseman Shea Theodore is also off to a great start, contributing a goal and six points.

Even their replacements have come through. With defenseman Alex Pietrangelo (upper body) unavailable, rookie Kaedan Korczak has entered the lineup and provided a goal and three points over three contests. The 22-year-old isn’t expected to be a significant offensive producer this season, but with him being hot, he’s a short-term selection option, provided Pietrangelo isn’t ready to return Tuesday.

Paul Cotter is also red hot, scoring a goal and four points over the last four contests. He’s another player who is presently producing above his ability, but Cotter got ample power-play time Saturday, which led to him contributing two points with the man advantage, so he’s an interesting option right now.

Washington Capitals

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/24/2023	TOR	WSH
Wed	10/25/2023	WSH	NJD
Fri	10/27/2023	MIN	WSH
Sun	10/29/2023	SJS	WSH

The Capitals don’t have an easy schedule, but they are at least set to play four games. They’ll host Toronto on Tuesday, play on the road versus the Devils on Wednesday, then return to Washington to host the Wild and Sharks on Friday and Sunday, respectively.

The big question is if Washington can get its offense going after scoring just five goals over its first four contests. Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson still don’t have a goal yet.

At the very least, you have to figure Ovechkin is going to breakthrough sooner rather than later, but what’s concerning is that not only has he failed to score, but he also hasn’t shot the puck much. Ovechkin is known for firing a crazy amount of shots -- an average of 4.71 per game over his career and over 4.00 in each of his last six years. The one time he dipped below that was 2016-17 when he averaged 3.82 shots per game and was limited to 33 goals in 82 contests -- the worst output he’s ever had in terms of goals per game. So the fact that he’s averaged just 2.25 shots in 2023-24 is a potential red flag. That said, it’s early, and those who doubted Ovechkin in the past have consistently been proven wrong.

Washington’s lone pleasant surprise thus far has been Matthew Phillips. The 25-year-old rookie has a goal and three points in four contests this year. He was dominant in the AHL over the previous two campaigns, contributing a combined 67 goals and 144 points in 131 appearances, so perhaps Phillips will find a way to continue to be a factor this season.

FANTASY: The Weekly Look Ahead – Week 1 – October 10 – 15 – Teams with a favourable schedule and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Tue, 10 Oct 2023 14:18:21 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - JANUARY 24: Look on Boston Bruins center Pavel Zacha (18) during the Boston Bruins versus the Montreal Canadiens game on January 24, 2023, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

Welcome to the first edition of my weekly look ahead. In this column, I’m going to highlight teams I believe have a particularly favorable schedule for the upcoming week and zero in on some potentially undervalued/underappreciated players on those squads who might be in line for a strong week. Going forward I’m also going to highlight hot players on those teams, but of course given that the regular season hasn’t started yet, I can’t really do that justice. I will make mention of preseason standouts instead this week, but please keep in mind that exhibition stats need to be taken with a large helping of salt.

Boston Bruins

The Bruins might not be the team they were a year ago, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see them start the season 2-0-0. They’ll begin the campaign with two home games, first against the rebuilding Blackhawks on Wednesday, then Saturday they’ll host Nashville, which is likely to be a middle-of-the-pack team.

Chicago’s offense is now led by Taylor Hall and Connor Bedard, so it will be interesting if nothing else, but Petr Mrazek and Arvid Soderblom is a pretty sorry goaltending duo that the Bruins should be able to take advantage of.

I’m particularly interested to see how Charlie Coyle does this week. The 31-year-old had 44 and 45 points in each of his last two campaigns, so he hasn’t been a major part of Boston’s attack, but there is the potential for him to play a bigger role in the post-Patrice Bergeron/David Krejci era. He’s gotten a chance to work alongside Brad Marchand during the preseason, which is a great opportunity for him. We might also see the NHL debut of Matthew Poitras. He has plenty of offensive upside and could begin the campaign in a middle-six role, so keep an eye out for that.

Boston was just 2-2-2 in the preseason, but David Pastrnak did stand out with two goals and four points in three appearances. Pavel Zacha, who might start the campaign on a line with Pastrnak, recorded three assists in three games.

Carolina Hurricanes

The Hurricanes have three games slated for their opening week. They’ll first host Ottawa on Wednesday, then play road contests versus Los Angeles and Anaheim on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. The Kings and Senators are projected to be playoff contenders, but not the cream of the crop, while Anaheim is still looking to the future.

The Kings were also the only one of those three opponents to finish in the upper half of teams in terms of goals allowed per game last year and even then, just barely – LA ranked 16th. To be fair, Ottawa did sign Joonas Korpisalo over the summer while the Kings scooped up Cam Talbot, so there has been turnover in net, but this still looks like a potentially favorable grouping for the Hurricanes’ forwards.

Perhaps we’ll see Jesperi Kotkaniemi get off to a strong start. The 23-year-old set career highs last year with 18 goals and 43 points in 82 contests, but the 2018 third overall pick still has room to grow. That’s especially true when you consider he averaged just 14:44 of ice time in 2022-23. He might start this campaign on the second line with Teuvo Teravainen and Martin Necas. Speaking of Teravainen, he had just 37 points last season, but is a huge bounce back candidate.

Carolina went 3-3-0 during the preseason with Michael Bunting doing particularly well, providing three goals and four points in three contests. Bunting, signed from Toronto, might end up playing a pretty big role with the Hurricanes. He’s been seeing time alongside Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis on the top line and crucially has also slotted into the first power-play unit.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers have only two games this week, but it’s an away-and-home series against Vancouver on Wednesday and Saturday. The Canucks are a weird team. They clearly have some star talent and goaltender Thatcher Demko might have a comeback season if he stays healthy, but they seem caught in that weird middle ground between building for the future and focusing on the present, with the outcome that they look mediocre on paper.

The player I’ll be most interested in during those two games will be Connor Brown. He didn’t record a point in four contests last season and the 29-year-old has never contributed more than 43 points in a single campaign – and even then, it was back in 2019-20 – but Brown has been seeing time on the top line with Evander Kane and Connor McDavid.

Brown is new to the Oilers, but not new to McDavid. The duo spent two years together with the OHL’s Erie Otters where they were two of the main driving forces of that squad’s attack. It’s been a while since Brown was that kind of offensive leader, but playing with McDavid should help.

Brown had two goals and three points in four preseason contests, which is solid, but it’s nothing compared to McDavid’s four goals and seven points in four exhibition games. Defenseman Evan Bouchard was also a preseason standout with six assists in five outings.

New Jersey Devils

The Devils will start the campaign with home games against Detroit and Arizona on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The Red Wings are a team on the rise, but they’re still questionable to even make the playoffs while Arizona likely still needs significantly more work.

Luke Hughes will be fun to watch as he begins his rookie campaign. While Bedard is understandably seen as the favorite for the Calder Trophy going into this campaign, Hughes is very much in the conversation too. The 20-year-old defenseman had 10 goals and 48 points in 39 NCAA games with the University of Michigan last season followed by a goal and four points in five appearances with New Jersey between the regular season and playoffs.

The big X-Factor is how much of a role will Hughes play off the bat. It’s hard to say what his even-strength role will be initially, but there’s a strong chance he’ll serve on the second power-play unit.

Also, while it must be said over and over again that preseason stats don’t mean much, it will be interesting to see if the Devils are able to carry any momentum from their 7-0-0 exhibition run into the regular season. In particular, Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes and Dawson Mercer dominated with nine, eight and five points, respectively – each in four preseason contests.

Pittsburgh Penguins

After falling short of the playoffs last year, the Penguins made significant changes over the summer to try to push back into contention with their most notable addition being defenseman Erik Karlsson. With their aged roster, a lot is on the line in 2023-24, and Pittsburgh has a golden opportunity to start off on the right foot. The Penguins will host Chicago on Tuesday, play in Washington on Friday and then host Calgary on Saturday. All those three teams joined the Penguins in the most recent draft lottery.

Between that favorable schedule and the absence of Jake Guentzel (ankle), Drew O'Connor might hit the ground running. O'Connor had four goals and five points in four exhibition games and while, yes, it’s preseason stats, it also seemed to be enough to demonstrate to the Penguins that he’s deserving of temporarily playing alongside Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust while Guentzel recovers.

If you want a real stretch, I have a little interest in Jeff Carter. He had just 29 points in 79 contests last season and is inching towards his 39th birthday on Jan. 1, so not much is expected of him. That said, he’s projected to start the campaign on the Penguins’ second power-play unit, which is an underrated assignment. Obviously, the top unit should do better, but getting anyone from that group is naturally costly. Meanwhile, the second unit is (due to the acquisition of Karlsson) now headlined by Kris Letang, who is immensely overqualified for his new role. This could be a pretty effective unit and Carter is one of the easiest to obtain from it.

As already noted, O’Connor was a preseason standout for Pittsburgh, but Marcus Pettersson and Rickard Rakell did well too, each recording three points in three games.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay will begin the campaign at home Tuesday versus Nashville before facing Detroit and Ottawa on the road Saturday and Sunday, respectively. None of those three teams made the playoffs last year, though to be fair, all three of them should be in the mix in 2023-24. Still, the Lightning should be looking to take at least two of three against those middle-of-the-road squads.

The big X-Factor is goaltending. The Lightning won’t have Andrei Vasilevskiy (back), so they’ll probably have to rely on Jonas Johansson for two of those three starts. With how strong of an offensive team Tampa Bay is, Johansson seems like a strong pickup for the duration of Vasilevskiy’s absence.

Outside of Johansson, Conor Sheary is worthy of consideration. After signing a three-year, $6 million contract with the Lightning over the summer, Sheary seems to be settling in on a line with Steven Stamkos. That could be a significant boost for Sheary, who had 53 points in 61 contests with Pittsburgh in 2016-17, but has struggled to replicate that success since, most recently recording 15 goals and 37 points in 82 contests with Washington.

Steven Stamkos is also worth keeping an eye on. Obviously, he’s a star and is expected to put up big numbers regardless, but even by his standards, he might have a big start to the campaign. Stamkos expressed disappointment with the lack of offseason discussion about a contract extension, and he could make the Lightning literally pay for waiting by coming out strong this campaign.

During the preseason, Brandon Hagel and Sheary were two of the Lightning’s best performers, each recording four points (Hagel in four games, Sheary in five). Johansson saved 94 of 96 shots during exhibition play.

Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights will start their defense of the Stanley Cup with a difficult home game versus Seattle on Tuesday. However, they’ll follow it up with what should be a pair of comparatively easy contests: one in San Jose on Thursday and a contest back in Vegas versus Anaheim on Saturday.

Vegas won’t have defensemen Alec Martinez (upper body) or Zach Whitecloud (upper body) this week, which opens the door to both Brayden Pachal and Ben Hutton dressing in the Golden Knights’ opener. Neither player is a significant offensive threat, but if you’re in the market for blocks, hits or penalty minutes, then Pachal is worth taking in the short-term. Pachal had eight PIM, 12 blocks and 27 hits in 10 contests with Vegas last season. He also had 90 PIM in 55 contests with AHL Henderson – his second straight 90 PIM campaign at the AHL level.

Adin Hill and Logan Thompson should also be good for some situational starts this week. It might be best to avoid going with Vegas goaltending Tuesday if you can, but Hill and Thompson are likely to split the San Jose/Anaheim contests. The Sharks and Ducks ranked 25th and 31st, respectively, in terms of goals per game in 2022-23 and neither is likely to be a major offensive threat this year.

Vegas was a mediocre 3-3-1 in the preseason, but Jack Eichel managed to score two goals and eight points in four contests while Jonathan Marchessault finished with three goals and seven points in three appearances.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Rookies getting a long look at camp – Vasilevskiy goaltending shuffle? – Laine switching positions plus much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 06 Oct 2023 17:19:27 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - SEPTEMBER 25: Philadelphia Flyers Forward Tyson Foerster (71) skates with the puck during a preseason game between the Philadelphia Flyers and New Jersey Devils on September 25, 2023 at Prudential Center in the Newark, New Jersey.(Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Tyson Foerster, Matt Coronato, Matthew Poitras, and Zach Benson are among the rookies getting a long look at training camps. The Lightning are trying to survive Andrei Vasilevskiy’s injury, Patrik Laine’s shifting positions, and more.

#1 Drafted 23^rd by the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2020 Draft, Tyson Foerster has been steadily progressing and he tallied 48 points (20 G, 28 A) in 66 AHL games last season and added seven points (3 G, 4 A) in eight NHL games. The 21-year-old is getting a real chance to make the team this year. His most common linemate in the preseason has been Joel Farabee, followed by Morgan Frost and Sean Couturier. That might indicate that Foerster is not only going to make the Flyers, but he could get a look in a scoring role, which might give him the opportunity to be fantasy relevant.

#2 The past couple of seasons have been the most productive of Evan Rodrigues’ career and it looks like he will have a chance to continue producing with his move to Florida, where he is getting a chance to skate alongside Aleksander Barkov, both at even strength and on Florida’s top power play unit. Rodrigues has scored 35 goals and 82 points in 151 games over the past two seasons, playing for Colorado and Pittsburgh. Rodrigues has been a top shot generator, averaging 9.67 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five play in the past two seasons, which ranks 33^rd. He also has a shooting percentage in those two seasons of 8.2%, so he is just waiting for a bust-out season with improved percentages.

#3 There are few goaltenders in the league as indispensable as Tampa Bay Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has handled a heavy workload throughout his career, allowing the Lightning to invest little in their backup goaltender. However, now that Vasilevskiy is going to miss at least a couple of months to start the season due to a back injury and that leaves the Lightning with Jonas Johansson, Hugo Alnefelt, and Matt Tomkins between the pipes. Johansson has been a quality AHL goaltender – he had a .920 save percentage in 26 AHL games last season – but he has a .887 save percentage in 35 career NHL games, which hardly screams ready to handle a starter’s role for a couple of months. Alnefelt is a 22-year-old who had a .904 save percentage in 33 AHL games last season. Tomkins is a 29-year-old who had a .909 save percentage in 65 games in the Swedish Hockey League over the past two years. On top of all of that, the Lightning have precious little cap space, especially until they get Vasilevskiy on LTIR.

#4 Tampa Bay is not the only team with goaltending concerns. It’s just that the Lightning have the biggest concern. However, for teams that might need goaltending, there are enough teams with quality number three goaltenders that the waiver wire or trades could be a path to stabilizing the situation between the pipes. Buffalo’s Eric Comrie, Calgary’s Daniel Vladar, Detroit’s Alex Lyon, Florida’s Anthony Stolarz, Los Angeles’ David Rittich, Toronto’s Martin Jones, and Seattle’s Chris Driedger or Joey Daccord are among the goaltenders with NHL experience that could be available as the season approaches.

#5 The Anaheim Ducks lost veteran left winger Alex Killorn for 4-6 weeks with a broken finger and his absence likely helps someone like Frank Vatrano, who is going to have a better shot at playing in the Ducks’ top six and skating on the wing with someone like Mason McTavish at centre is a good opportunity. Vatrano has some deep league fantasy appeal as a two-time 20-goal scorer who ranks 30^th in shots per 60 minutes over the past two seasons.

#6 An interesting development with the Blue Jackets is that they have shifted Patrik Laine to centre, between Johnny Gaudreau and Kirill Marchenko. While Laine’s skill set does not scream elite centre, if he can handle the role, he has the size to be a monstrous presence in the middle and with a playmaker like Gaudreau on the wing, Laine will still be able to fulfill his typical role as finisher. Laine has six points (3 G, 3 A) in four preseason contests. This development could be most interesting for Marchenko, who is getting a chance to skate with Columbus’ most dangerous offensive players, and it probably knocks down the value of Boone Jenner, who would potentially lose that spot on the top line.

#7 Some other players producing in the preseason, with a focus on players that might be exceeding expectations: Calgary rookie Matt Coronato has seven points (4 G, 3 A) in five games, Columbus’ Emil Bemstrom has six points (3 G, 3 A) in four games, Florida’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson has five assists in two games, Detroit’s J.T. Compher has five points (1 G, 4 A) in three games, and St. Louis’ Jakub Vrana has five points (3 G, 2 A) in four games. Small samples, obviously, but take the preseason production as an encouraging sign.

#8 A couple more rookies that are producing in the preseason and might just be forcing their way into NHL jobs: Bruins C Matthew Poitras, who has five points (3 G, 2 A) in five games and could at least get a trial as Boston’s No. 2 centre as the Bruins try to fill the gaping holes left by the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. Buffalo’s Zach Benson, the 13^th pick in the 2023 Draft, has been getting quality looks in Sabres camp, playing on the top line with first unit power play time, and has five points (3 G, 2 A) in five preseason contests.

#9 When the New York Islanders acquired Pierre Engvall from the Toronto Maple Leafs at last season’s trade deadline, he was given a bigger role, playing an extra couple of minutes per game with the Islanders, and he contributed nine points (5 G, 4 A) in 18 games. It looks like Engvall could have a chance to stick in the Isles’ top six, as he is skating with Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri on the second line. Engvall has a career high of 35 points coming into the season and it looks like he will have a real shot to play a bigger role with the Islanders.

#10 Looking back at the past three seasons, the points per 60 minutes leaders tend to be expected names – Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Matthew Tkachuk – but there are always some surprises that deserve more notice. Carter Verhaeghe ranks 12^th among skaters that played at least 500 five-on-five minutes, with 2.62 points/60. Nikolaj Ehlers is 19^th at 2.57 points/60, Jakub Vrana is 21^st at 2.56 points/60, Michael Bunting 26^th at 2.49 points/60, and Andre Burakovsky 34^th with 2.43 points/60. That’s the second note in favour of Vrana.

#11 Turning the focus to goals per 60 minutes, the leaders are mostly as expected: Auston Matthews, Jakub Vrana, David Pastrnak, Max Pacioretty, Filip Forsberg, Jared McCann, Daniel Sprong, Carter Verhaeghe, Roope Hintz, and Cole Caufield, all coming in ahead of 11^th-ranked Alex Ovechkin. There are some players who have missed significant time in the past three seasons, including Vrana, Pacioretty, Forsberg, Sprong, and Caufield, but that is a third positive reference for Vrana.

#12 Andrew Mangiapane is not only getting a look with Jonathan Huberdeau and Elias Lindholm on Calgary’s top line, but he is getting first unit power play time, too. Mangiapane went from a career-high 35 goals in 2021-2022 to 17 goals last season with his shooting percentage crashing from 18.9% to 9.3%, so he is a prime candidate to rebound and especially if he is going to get a shot with top offensive performers.

#13 When winger Sammy Blais returned to St. Louis at the trade deadline last season, he was given a new opportunity. He saw his ice time jump nearly five minutes per game, from 9:38 with the Rangers to 14:36 with the Blues, and Blais contributed 20 points (9 G, 11 A) in 31 games. He scored on 23.1% of his shots and that is not sustainable, but that increased role and productivity put Blais on the radar for fantasy managers because he also had 119 hits in 31 games. He is an injury risk as last season’s 71 games was the first time that he had played more than 40 games in an NHL season, but if opportunity knocks in St. Louis this year, Blais is going to be in position to chip in and offer fantasy appeal, at least in deep or banger leagues.

#14 An efficient depth player for much of his career, Ryan Donato is the latest to get a look on Chicago’s top line, skating alongside Taylor Hall and Connor Bedard. In the past two seasons, Donato has scored 29 goals at even strength, the same number as Pierre-Luc Dubois, and more than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evgeni Malkin, among others. With 1.08 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play in the past two seasons, Donato ranks 46^th among skaters to play at least 1,000 five-on-five minutes. He may not last alongside Bedard and Hall but might be worth a late-round flier in a deep league just in case he sticks there and continues to score, only with more ice time, in Chicago.

#15 The second pick in the 2020 Draft, Quinton Byfield has been making slow progress, but has loads of potential and has an opportunity to break through as he skates on the Kings’ top line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. Byfield had 22 points in 53 games last season, managing just three goals, but he did have some flashes. He had nine points (1 G, 8 A) during a 10-game stretch in the second half of the season and contributed four points (1 G, 3 A) in six playoff games against Edmonton. It would help if he could increase his shot rate, but it is also too soon to be giving up on a 21-year-old who is 6-foot-5 and can skate like Byfield, so this could be a pivotal season for his development.

#16 Sticking with the 2020 Draft, top pick Alexis Lafreniere has not fulfilled his potential yet, either and it leads to complicated discussions. In three NHL seasons, Lafreniere has produced 44 even strength goals, which ranks 81^st in the league. It’s the same number as Anze Kopitar and one more than Mika Zibanejad, which would seem like pretty good company, but Lafreniere has a total of six power play points in 216 games and that leaves him with uninspiring point totals. With a new coach, Peter Laviolette, behind the bench for the Blueshirts, it looks like Lafreniere should have a chance to play in the top six, but it also looks like he is not getting power play time, and that is going to put a limit on his fantasy appeal.

#17 Nashville’s top power play unit is interesting. Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi are obvious veteran anchors for the unit, but Tommy Novak and Luke Evangelista are getting regular spots and then there is a spot for either Ryan O’Reilly or Cody Glass. If the Predators are trying to rebuild on the fly, giving young players like Novak, Evangelista, and Glass a real chance in prominent roles is a way to find out if they are going to be able to remain competitive through the process. For fantasy managers, that does elevate the appeal of those less proven Preds.

#18 With Vasily Podkolzin getting cut and Ilya Mikheyev’s health in question in Vancouver, that makes it look like Nils Hoglander and Phil DiGiuseppe will have regular spots in the Canucks lineup. Hoglander does offer more upside, scoring 24 of his 26 career goals at even strength, but he managed just nine points (3 G, 6 A) in 25 games before getting demoted to the AHL last season. Hoglander had 27 points (13 G, 14 A) in 56 games as a rookie in 2020-2021 but was going in the wrong direction, so this might be the opportunity he needs to get back on track.

#19 Looking back to the 2022-2023 season, there were a few players who really surged after the All-Star break. Many are the top players in the league, but some might come as a surprise. Arizona’s Clayton Keller, for example, ranked fourth with 45 points (19 G, 26 A) in 32 games following the break. Dallas defenceman Miro Heiskanen had 33 points (4 G, 29 A) in 31 games, Nashville’s Tommy Novak had 32 points (13 G, 19 A) in 32 games, Buffalo’s Casey Mittelstadt produced 31 points (8 G, 23 A) in 33 games, and Washington’s Dylan Strome had 29 points (12 G, 17 A) in 29 games. He missed some time, but Columbus’ Patrik Laine had 21 points (8 G, 13 A) in 19 games to finish last season.

#20 Finally, with the season just around the corner, beware of the injury bug. Last week, I wrote about how John Klingberg was getting a chance on Toronto’s top power play unit, and he hasn’t played since, as he nurses an upper-body injury. Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston have both been out for the Dallas Stars and while they appear to be making progress, it seems possible that they might not be ready for opening night. Mattias Ekholm has been out of the Oilers lineup, leaving a gaping hole on the Edmonton blueline. Ottawa centre Josh Norris is working his way back from shoulder surgery, but with Shane Pinto still unsigned, that leaves the Sens suddenly thin down the middle, at least for the time being. Pittsburgh’s Jake Guentzel was not expected to be ready for the start of the season, following offseason ankle surgery, but has been practicing with the Penguins so he may be getting close. San Jose’s Logan Couture does not appear likely to be ready for the start of the season. That probably gives Mikael Granlund a bigger role for the Sharks. Neck spasms have been keeping Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers out of the lineup, a huge absence for Winnipeg, and Winnipeg is being careful so he may not be ready for the start of the season either.

FANTASY HOCKEY: NHL Training Camp standout performances

Ryan Dadoun — Thu, 05 Oct 2023 16:50:14 +0000

BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 24: Boston Bruins center Matthew Poitras (51) dishes the puck off during a game between the Boston Bruins and the New York Rangers on September 24, 2023, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

While you never want to assume too much based solely on preseason performances, fantasy managers can still benefit from keeping a close eye on what happens during training camp. Beyond just learning who will make each team’s Opening Night roster, we’re gaining valuable insight into potential line combinations and power-play assignments. In some cases, teams are already being forced to adjust to injuries as well, creating unexpected opportunities for players who were originally projected to begin the campaign in supporting roles.

Training camp isn’t over quite yet, but we’ve already learned enough to highlight some players who have seen their fantasy value meaningfully rise over the last couple of weeks.

Matt Poitras (Boston) – After losing Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci over the summer, the Bruins entered training camp with some sizable holes to fill up the middle. So far, Poitras has looked like a big part of the solution, impressing with his creative play and compete level. He is still just 19 years old, so some growing pains are to be expected, but the Bruins’ lack of center depth might lead to Poitras not only making the team but starting the campaign alongside Brad Marchand and Jake DeBrusk.

Matt Coronato (Calgary) – You never want to put too much weight on exhibition statistics, but Coronato has certainly made a good first impression by scoring four goals and seven points over his first five preseason contests. Part of what makes this offensive outburst noteworthy is that it’s not coming out of nowhere. The 20-year-old was already highly regarded after being taken by the Flames with the 13th overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft and contributing 36 points in 34 NCAA contests in each of his freshman and sophomore seasons with Harvard University. Coronato has a great shot and may have utilized it well enough to earn a spot on a line with Mikael Backlund.

Ryan Donato (Chicago) – While the first-line combination of veteran Taylor Hall and rookie Connor Bedard has been anticipated for months now, what’s been less clear is who will get to make up the final third of that potentially potent line. So far it looks like Donato will be that player, provided his recent groin injury doesn’t get in the way. The 27-year-old had 14 goals and 27 points in 71 contests while averaging a modest 11:15 of ice time with Seattle last season, but if he plays consistently on the top line, then he could reach new offensive heights by a substantial margin.

Jack Campbell (Edmonton) – Campbell’s first campaign with the Oilers couldn’t have gone much worse, ending with him posting a 3.41 GAA and an .888 save percentage in 36 contests, which was bad enough for Stuart Skinner to wrestle the starting gig from him. However, that was just the first campaign of Edmonton’s five-year commitment to Campbell, so whether Edmonton likes it or not, he’s back – and maybe this time will actually be better. Take this with a heap of salt, but Campbell has stopped 66 of 68 shots over his first two exhibition contests. He’s done well enough that Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft wasn’t ready to commit to an Opening Night starter as of Tuesday. There’s a lot of risk here, but after the campaign Campbell had, he’s become an intriguing buy-low candidate.

Calen Addison (Minnesota) – Although Addison served as a healthy scratch for 19 of the Wild’s last 29 regular-season games last year, it looks like he’s not only going to start the 2023-24 campaign in the lineup, but as part of the first power-play unit. That’s vital for Addison’s fantasy value. The 23-year-old defenseman had three goals and 29 points in 62 outings last season, including 18 points with the man advantage.

Mattias Norlinder (Montreal) – This one might be a bit of a stretch. After all, what are the odds that a 23-year-old defenseman coming off a campaign in which he recorded just 19 points in 67 AHL games not only manages to make the Canadiens, but puts up fantasy relevant numbers? Well, based on how training camp has gone, it’s not an impossibility. The main factor is that the Canadiens lack a clear power-play quarterback for its second unit and Norlinder, more than any other candidate, has taken advantage of that opening thus far. Canadiens coach Martin St. Louis has been impressed with his compete level, especially compared to where it was a year ago, and Norlinder looked particularly good in Montreal’s 5-4 overtime victory over Toronto on Monday, during which he scored a power-play goal. His spot on the team still isn’t secure, but it’s looking far more likely than it did when camp began.

Alexander Holtz (New Jersey) – The Devils’ forward core is an embarrassment of riches, but there was an opening to play on the second line alongside Timo Meier and Nico Hischier, and it looks like Holtz will be the winner of that battle. Holtz was limited to three goals and four points in 19 contests with the Devils in 2022-23, but he was averaging just 10:16 of ice time. It looks like he’ll have an opportunity to play a far bigger role this season and given his considerable offensive upside, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the 2020 seventh overall pick have a solid campaign.

Simon Holmstrom (New York Islanders) – You wouldn’t expect a forward who had six goals and nine points in 50 contests last season to be primed to put up significant offensive numbers, but Holmstrom might manage to do it. It’s important to keep in mind that he was limited to just 11:06 of ice time per game in 2022-23, which played a role in his terrible offensive output. By contrast, during training camp he’s been getting a long look on the top line with Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal. Injuries prevented Barzal and Horvat from developing chemistry last campaign, but they could prove to be an outstanding duo this season, so being along for the ride would be great news for Holmstrom.

Bobby Brink (Philadelphia) – Brink had an amazing season with the University of Denver in 2021-22, scoring 14 goals and 57 points in 41 NCAA games, but two years later, it looked like he might still need additional seasoning in the AHL before he’d be ready to earn a regular spot with the Flyers. That might still happen, but he’s making a serious case for himself during training camp to not only be part of the Flyers’ Opening Night roster, but to earn the coveted spot on the Flyers’ Sean Couturier line over Tyson Foerster. Going into training camp, Foerster seemed like the clear favorite for that role and his more impressive work last season – 48 points in 66 AHL games as well as seven points in eight contests with the Flyers – might ultimately give him the win. However, Brink has stood out during the preseason to make coach John Tortorella’s decision a tough one.

Jonas Johansson (Tampa Bay) – Johansson is no one’s first choice to be the starting goaltender for a team with Stanley Cup ambitions. The 28-year-old journeyman has just 35 contests worth of NHL experience and has been more miss than hit over that span, posting a 3.35 GAA and an .886 save percentage. Still, after Andrei Vasilevskiy underwent back surgery, Johansson is set to be Tampa Bay’s de facto starter for roughly the first two months of the campaign. There are silver linings here for the Lightning. Johansson has posted back-to-back shutouts to start the preseason, and he was solid in 2022-23 too, earning a 2.33 GAA and a .920 save percentage in 26 AHL contests as well as a 2.10 GAA and .932 save percentage in three games with Colorado. Johansson is also going to have the benefit of backing up an amazing offense, so even if he’s just okay, he could end up with a lot of wins, making him a solid mid-term pickup.

Cole McWard (Vancouver) – There are few players who have had a more surprising training camp than McWard. The undrafted 22-year-old defenseman recorded nine goals and 21 points in 39 NCAA games with Ohio State University in 2022-23 and then contributed a goal in five appearances with Vancouver to round out the campaign. Going into training camp, McWard was far from a certainty to make the Opening Night roster, but so far, he looks primed to start the campaign on the top pairing alongside Quinn Hughes. It is worth noting that he was paired with Guillaume Brisebois during Wednesday’s exhibition contest, but Hughes got that night off, and McWard had a mostly solid showing, so that game shouldn’t be seen as a sign that his fortunes are changing.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – BOSTON BRUINS – Top 20 Prospect Profiles – Organizational Rank #27

Brock Otten, Derek Neumeier, Chapin Landvogt and Josh Bell — Fri, 22 Sep 2023 20:08:04 +0000

Top 20 Boston Bruin Prospects

BRIGHTON, MA - JULY 06: Boston Bruins forward Fabian Lysell (21) waits for his turn at a drill during Boston Bruins Development Camp on July 6, 2023, at Warrior Ice Arena in Brighton, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

1. Fabian Lysell

Lysell wasted no time after the Bruins selected him 21st overall in 2021. After hearing his name called, he decided to come to North America, where he has been extremely impressive so far. He spent his first season in the WHL with the Vancouver Giants, leading the team in points with 62. Last season, he was just as impressive after having move up to the AHL. Lysell’s ability to generate offense has been on full display since coming overseas, highlighted by his ability to stickhandle like the puck is on a string as well as his high-end passing skill. He’s incredibly elusive and creative but needs to pick his opportunities better. There are also some consistency concerns in his game as he seems to lose confidence in himself on occasion. If Lysell can put the pieces together, and he did that very well last year as an AHL rookie, he could very well be a top six playmaker in the near future.

2. Mason Lohrei

After going undrafted in 2019, Lohrei has been making the Bruins look good. They surprisingly called his name 58th overall in the 2020 NHL Draft and he has since responded very well, earning USHL Defenseman of the Year honours in 2020-21, leading all defenders in goals (19), assists (40), and points (59). But he wasn’t done there. He joined Ohio State University the following season and was named to the Big Ten All-Rookie Team. Last season, his final one in the NCAA ranks, didn’t have the same lustre around it, but he was playing on a weaker team. Lohrei’s two-way potential is still there. He contributes at both ends, carrying the puck well in transition, showing promising mobility, playing physically, and being trusted to be on the ice in all situations. He’s still a bit of a project and there is a need for some refinement in his game if he’s going to succeed in the NHL, but he could be a reliable bottom-pairing defender.

3. Matthew Poitras

Looking at the type of player that the Bruins value, Poitras is the perfect fit. A coach’s dream, he never takes his foot off the gas, being dependable in all scenarios, and being patient in his play. He’s not a player who is going to be overly dynamic at the next level, but he’s capable of having flashes. A recent draftee, Poitras was selected 54th overall in the 2022 NHL Draft from the OHL’s Guelph Storm. He took a big offensive step forward last season, nearly doubling his offensive output from his rookie season and finishing second in the league in assists. This largely comes from his hardworking style of play, as the puck usually ends up on his stick, which won’t happen as much as he moves up. Tenacious players tend to make it against all odds, so you can bet on Poitras reaching the NHL in due time.

4. Reilly Walsh

After splitting his draft year between the USHL’s Chicago Steel and Prep school Proctor Academy, the Devils bet on Walsh and selected him 81st in the 2017 NHL Draft. He then moved on to the NCAA with Harvard University where he spent three years, playing consistent, productive hockey without shining too brightly. He signed with the Devils and jumped to the AHL in 2020-21 where he continued that trend of consistency. After being on the trade block this season, the Bruins acquired him in the offseason, for Shane Bowers, and are looking for him to take that next step. Walsh is an offensive defender who moves very well with the puck on his stick, isn’t afraid to jump up into the rush, and has a great shot. He has quick edges and a level of deception in his game. The defender likely caps out as a bottom-line defender, but a contributing one who could see time on the power play as well.

5. Brandon Bussi

In terms of trending prospects, it’s nearly impossible to ignore Bussi at this point. An undrafted goaltender, Bussi had been biding his time, waiting for an NHL team to bet on him. After his third NCAA season with Western Michigan University, the Bruins did just that, signing him to a one-year contract as a collegiate free agent. With a .910 save percentage over his NCAA career, expectations weren’t overly high, more in line with a “let’s see” approach. He jumped to the AHL last season and was remarkable in net. He took over the Providence crease as the number-one netminder and ran with it, sitting near the top of the league in all categories. He was even named to the AHL All-Star Classic and AHL All-Rookie Team. It remains to be seen how high Bussi can climb, but he’s still young at 24 and his size, positioning, and mobility all suggest that he’s well on his way to the next level.

6. Alec Regula

Acquired recently in the Taylor Hall/Nick Foligno swap with the Chicago Blackhawks, Regula is a hulking, stay-at-home defender entering his fourth season of professional hockey. The good news for Boston is that he will be eager for a fresh start and an opportunity to establish himself as an NHL regular. The bad news is that he is no longer exempt from waivers and the team already has an extremely deep pro blueline. What ultimately ends up happening with Regula at training camp will be interesting, but there is no question that he could be a steady, third pairing defender immediately. He’s got size. He’s got reach. He’s very mobile for such a large defender. He’s an intense physical competitor. The puck skills are relatively limited. Long gone are the days where he used to play the netfront, bumper position for the London Knights on the powerplay a-la Zdeno Chara (he scored 27 goals for London in 2020). However, he definitely has a projection of an NHL defender who can pair well with a more aggressive offensive type, especially given his right shot. Boston will have to make room for him, trade him again, or risk losing him on waivers to another NHL franchise for free.

7. John Farinacci

The captain of Harvard in the NCAA, Farinacci played out his NCAA eligibility in order to earn free agent status, opting not to sign with the Arizona Coyotes who had originally selected him. Almost immediately upon earning said status, Farinacci signed with Boston, gaining status as a potential roster option for this upcoming season. He plays a polished two-way game and can find success playing a heavy style, making him a suitable bottom six candidate to start with. How much upside does Farinacci have? That remains to be seen. His shot might be his best asset as a pro, although his patience and playmaking ability did improve during his senior year. Even if he tops out as a high end third line option, Farinacci would bring a ton of value to Boston as a free agent signing. He can kill penalties, play a variety of different roles, and should move quickly through the system, helping to fill the gaps left by some of Boston’s high profile exits.

8. Georgii Merkulov

After going undrafted and relatively unnoticed in his first year of draft eligibility back in 2019, playing with the MHL’s Kapitan Stupino, Merkulov made a change. He decided to head overseas, joining the USHL’s Youngstown Phantoms where he spent two seasons, going undrafted both times. He next moved on to the NCAA and Ohio State University, where he spent just one year before the Bruins swooped in and signed him as a free agent. That’s been looking like a great move so far, as Merkulov was a top player on the Providence Bruins last season. He has an excellent shot, has a knack for creating separation, and is a strong playmaker as well. He struggles in the face-off dot and his defensive awareness and effort aren’t always there, but he’s well on his way to being a secondary scoring option at the NHL level.

9. John Beecher

When the Bruins drafted Beecher back in 2019, 30th overall, he was coming off a fine season with the USNTDP and heading to the NCAA’s University of Michigan. He spent three seasons with the Wolverines, where it seemed like his development stalled, never really taking the next step in his game. Now in the AHL, he has shown some improvement with his physicality and ability to get off the wall, even chipping in offensively fairly well, but there is still concern with his lack of consistency and failure to take over games or drive a line. He tends to sit back too often, letting the play come to him. Whether or not he makes the NHL as a consistent contributor is a real question, and it’s hard to see his ceiling as more than a bottom six role player, despite his physical gifts.

10. Riley Duran

A lesser known but promising piece of the Bruins’ pool is Duran. Selected in 2020 way down at 182nd overall out of high school, the forward made the shift to the USHL the following season but didn’t take off. In 2021-22, he jumped to the NCAA where he emerged as a real prospect of note with Providence College. So much so that he was named to Team USA at the 2022 World Juniors. He has strong positioning, plays with high energy, and isn’t afraid to jump into puck battles. His skill level isn’t overly exciting - he’s more of a reliable depth player. As the Bruins tend to prefer, Duran has good size at 6-foot-2 and will continue to build strength before he reaches the next level. His ceiling isn’t very high, but he seems like a player who could plug into a third- or fourth-line role while able to play up if needed.

11. Brett Harrison

Drafted 85th overall in 2021, Harrison’s shot is a bright spot, getting a great deal of weight behind a full arsenal of shots. He does well getting to the front of the net as well. His skating stride, shot selection, and overall consistency are red flags in his game though. His development has seemed to stall since being drafted. It's hard to see him as more than a depth piece but he could cut out a bottom six role for himself if everything goes to plan.

12. Dans Locmelis

2022-23 was a coming out party for the talented Latvian center. He was among the best players in the Swedish J20 league and visibly improved his skating to become a more dangerous and consistent offensive player. He will attend UMass this year and should have a good season.

13. Jakub Lauko

Even though the offensive production wasn’t terrific at the AHL level, Lauko filled in admirably with Boston last year to help offset injuries with the big club. This coming season Lauko is no longer exempt from waivers, so it is a big year for the speedy winger.

14. Marc McLaughlin

Don’t expect McLaughlin to ever be a big-time offensive contributor as that’s not his game, but with his work ethic and defensive awareness, he profiles perfectly as a fourth line center and penalty killing anchor.

15. Trevor Kuntar

After three years at Boston College, Kuntar is turning pro this year after signing with Boston. The big, power center is a capable goal scorer but it will be interesting to see how his skating and pace translates to the pro level.

16. Andre Gasseau

A big, two-way center, Gasseau was surprisingly fantastic as a freshman with Boston College last year, flashing more offensive upside than he was perceived to have. It will be interesting to see him grow with the program and continue to develop as an offensive play driver.

17. Frederic Brunet

Even though Brunet finished second in defensive scoring in the QMJHL last year, it looks like the plan might be for him to return as an OA this upcoming season as he is currently without an ELC. Training camp performance may dictate where they start the talented offensive blueliner.

18. Oskar Jellvik

Another player in the Bruins/Boston College pipeline, Jellvik is a skilled playmaking forward who just finished his freshman year after coming over from Sweden. He remains a long term project, but one with terrific offensive upside.

19. Ryan Mast

Even though the offensive production was adequate in the OHL, don’t expect Mast to be a big-time offensive contributor at the pro level. How his defensive game transitions to the pro level this year will dictate whether he can be a long term NHL fixture on the blueline.

20. Beckett Hendrickson

The son of long time NHL forward Darby Hendrickson, Beckett is coming out of the NTDP and will be playing with Sioux Falls in the USHL this year before heading to the University of Minnesota the following year. A lunch pail type, Hendrickson will be looking to prove that he has offensive upside.

MCKEEN’S 2023 NHL PROSPECT REPORT – #8 Buffalo Sabres

Josh Bell — Tue, 23 May 2023 21:47:50 +0000

Prospect System Ranking – 8^th (1^st last year)

There is genuine excitement building in Buffalo following a really strong season, with some playoff aspirations for a time. They have arguably the most exciting group of graduates in the NHL in Owen Power, Jack Quinn, J.J. Peterka, Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin, and Mattias Samuelsson. Four of them were top 10 picks in their draft year. You can add Peyton Krebs, acquired in the Eichel trade to this group. At the 2022 Draft they had three first round picks in Matthew Savoie (#25^th ranked by McKeens), Noah Ostlund (#63), and Jiri Kulich (#18). The fact that they had so many graduates, and still rank this highly in organizational depth is a testament to their scouts and development team.

GM Kevyn Adams took over in June 2020, right before the draft, and has drawn good reviews as a steady hand. He was proactive in signing his two franchise centerman Tage Thompson (25-years-old) and Dylan Cozens (22) to long term deals at a reasonable AAV of $7.1 million that will benefit them for years. His biggest trade was moving Jack Eichel for a first and a second, hometown hero Alex Tuch, who is thriving, along with the former 17^th overall pick, Peyton Krebs. He has also successfully stepped into an NHL role. Adams brought in a lot of futures and changed the culture seemingly overnight in a high-pressure transaction. Eichel has gone on to thrive in Vegas, but the pieces Adams extracted are already fixtures in the line-up and Ostlund is a promising prospect. The Sabres are going to be competitive as soon as next season, and only get better as this group hits their prime. A reward to Buffalo fans who have been waiting 12 years for a playoff appearance and seen their share of dysfunction.

CLEVELAND, OH - DECEMBER 03: Rochester Americans right wing Jiri Kulich (25) on the ice during the first period of the American Hockey League game between the Rochester Americans and Cleveland Monsters on December 3, 2022, at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

Jiri Kulich

While Matthew Savoie was the Sabres’ top-10 selection in the 2022 NHL Draft, it’s been 28th-overall-pick Jiri Kulich looking more and more like the team’s top prospect. The Czech forward made the jump overseas this season, going straight to the AHL and fitting right in. The transition to the league wasn’t a difficult one for the centreman, having spent the previous season with HC Energie Karlovy Vary in the top men’s league in Czechia. He’s been a regular and a standout player on Team Czechia, most recently helping them to a 2023 World Juniors silver medal. Kulich plays hard, fast, and smart - the perfect trifecta for any NHL player. He’s a player that could be thrown into any role or situation and thrive. At this point, there’s little question of if he’ll make it to the NHL, but rather when.

2. Matthew Savoie

In terms of dynamic prospects, you’d be hard-pressed to find one better than Savoie. The Winnipeg Ice centreman has been tearing up the WHL for the past two seasons, eclipsing 35 goals and 90 points in both campaigns. He led all rookies in points last season and was rewarded by being selected ninth overall by the Sabres. He’s so difficult to defend due to his excellent edgework and impressive hands to match. He might just be one of the best skaters not in the NHL right now. Savoie’s a well-rounded, offensive threat, with a shot that will stand out in the NHL and strong playmaking with a knack for feeding the slot. He plays at a high pace and isn’t afraid to dive into battles, despite his 5-foot-9 frame. He has the talent to be a top-line threat and seems like a safe bet for the top six, at the very least.

3. Devon Levi

What a successful journey it’s been for Devon Levi. Starting with the CCHL’s Carleton Place Canadians in 2019-20, the goaltender has been MVP of the CCHL and 2019 World Junior A Challenge, Player of the Year in the CJHL and Hockey East, and on top of that, Top Goaltender of the NCAA and 2021 World Juniors. And that’s just the Cole’s note version of his extensive resume to date. While critics will be quick to point out his size, at “just” six feet, he has all of the aspects that should lead him to continued success in his career. He’s so quick and precise in his movement, using strong edges to maintain his positioning. His tracking is among the best of any goaltending prospect and his patience is elite. The wait for Levi to be an NHL regular shouldn’t be long, as the prospect has already signed his entry-level deal and made the jump to the NHL from Northwestern University.

4. Isak Rosen

Like Kulich, Isak Rosen is in his first season in North America and has wasted no time getting accustomed to the game. This should come as no surprise since the Swede spent the two seasons prior playing in the SHL with Leksands IF. The Sabres drafted him in 2021 at 14th overall, spending just one more season in Sweden before heading directly to the AHL. Rosen is such a fun player to watch, stemming from just how light he is on his feet and how quickly he can change directions, making him extremely unpredictable. He’s very patient and his intelligence shows with the puck on his stick, waiting for the opportune moment to make a move and create chances. Consistency and finding ways to break through to the middle of the ice appear to be the biggest hurdles for him right now, but he’s well on his way to being a productive middle-six winger.

5. Noah Ostlund

Sticking with the top Swedes in the prospect pool, Noah Ostlund is the third prospect on this list from the Sabres’ ridiculous first round in the 2022 NHL Draft. Ostlund was the second taken, 16th overall. Ostlund may take some more time than Rosen to make the jump though, playing just 11 SHL games last season, without recording a point. He has been playing in the HockeyAllsvenskan this season with Djurgardens IF, where he’s been getting used to playing against men. The centreman brings a promising two-way presence combined with very agile feet. He can tend to be outmuscled on the puck rather often, so there is some concern about how that will translate coming overseas. This complicates his projection, but he does the talent and work ethic to be a contributing middle-six forward. Another year in Sweden, plus some time in the AHL will be beneficial.

6. Prokhor Poltapov

The Sabres have shown in recent drafts that they’re going to bet on skill and all the rest will fall into place. That seems to be the thought process behind selecting Russian forward Prokhor Poltapov 33rd overall in 2021. The forward also fits a Sabres mould in his energy level, playing like a wind-up car when he’s on the ice. He has the potential to pull off highlight-reel plays but that isn’t always on display. That makes him a player to always keep an eye on though, as you never know when he’s going to go off. After spending the 2021-22 season bouncing between the MHL, VHL, and KHL, he’s carved out a role for himself in the KHL this season, granted in an extremely limited role. His ceiling isn’t overly high, especially due to some inconsistency, but he’s signed in Russia until 2024-25, so he has some time to develop.

7. Ryan Johnson

The first and only defender in the Sabres’ top 10, Ryan Johnson could easily be higher on this - but that’s a testament to the team’s system right now. Drafted 31st overall in 2019, Johnson was coming off a one-and-done USHL season where he was named to the All-Rookie Team. He then jumped to the NCAA’s University of Minnesota where he’s been a huge part of the program. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but he’s still the No. 1 defender on the NCAA’s top team. His reliability, excellent mobility, and his ability to dictate the play all stand out as highly coveted, easily translatable traits. There’s likely not a ton of offensive upside to his game, but there’s also not a lot of downside to his game. He’s in his senior year and doesn’t seem far off from stepping into an NHL role - potentially the top four.

8. Aleksandr Kisakov

While there’s often a waiting period for Russian prospects after they’ve been drafted, Aleksandr Kisakov didn’t take much, spending just one more year in the MHL before signing and coming over to the AHL. In Russia, he showed off his ability to play a quick, high-pace game, noticeably standing out with his speed and offensive talent. He’s extremely creative and unpredictable with the puck on his stick. He’s struggled to find that consistent offensive magic since he joined the Rochester Americans though, adjusting to the improved speed and strength of the AHL. It remains to be seen if he’ll be able to get back to that level or if he’ll end up as more of a depth piece in a lineup. There’s a high ceiling and low floor here to keep an eye on but either way, he’s a longer-term project. Expect a few more years in the AHL to get him comfortable.

9. Olivier Nadeau

Selected in the 2021 NHL Draft, 97th overall, Olivier Nadeau provides the Sabres’ farm system with a bigger, strong piece for the future. While the majority of their top prospects are high-skill, high-ceiling pieces, Nadeau is more of a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect. Imagining him as a bottom-six forward seems like just a matter of time and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him crack the top-six. He has a big body that protects the puck so well and navigates to the middle of the ice very well. He does have promising offensive ability too and should be a contributor at every level, at least in a secondary-scoring role. His skating looks to be the biggest hole in his game right now, so much so that he may struggle to adjust to the AHL level. Still, he’s been a top player in the QMJHL that looks ready to take the next step.

10. Lukas Rousek

After being passed over in the NHL Draft twice, the third time was the charm for Lukas Rousek who was selected 160th overall in 2019 by the Sabres. At that time, he was already in his second season in the top men’s league in Czechia. Post-draft, he spent two more seasons with HC Sparta Praha taking noticeable steps forward each season. After an ACL reconstruction surgery to start the 2021-22 season, he played just 19 games that season but came on strong in the playoffs. This season, he’s become a top player for the Amerks, highlighted by his excellent playmaking and work ethic. He’s a strong skater who seems to always know where to be on the ice. Seeing how easily he’s transitioned to the AHL, it looks like Rousek could be a middle-six winger, who looks like a very safe bet to be a regular at this point.