Michael Callahan – McKeen's Hockey

NCAA East Region 2019-20 Season Preview: Hockey East and ECAC

Jashvina Shah — Thu, 10 Oct 2019 13:58:42 +0000

NCAA East Region Preview

While Hockey East and the ECAC are different leagues with different tendencies, both conferences see a gap between the top-tier teams and the bottom ones. The factors that separates the elite from the not-so elite are either excellent coaching or top-end talent. Primarily, teams need excellent coaching. Because you need a lot of top-end talent if you’re going to win on talent. As Herb Brooks said, “you don’t have enough talent to win on talent alone!”

There shouldn’t be too many surprises in the east this year, and teams that succeeded last year will mostly repeat this year.

MANCHESTER, NH - MARCH 29: Clarkson University Golden Knights forward Haralds Egle (18) breaks in on Notre Dame Fighting Irish goaltender Cale Morris (32) during a Northeast Regional semi-final between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Clarkson Golden Knights on March 29, 2019, at SNHU Arena in Manchester, NH. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

ECAC

Brown: The Bears have hovered in the ECAC basement of a while now. They finished eighth in the regular season but got hot in the playoffs, beating Princeton and then knocking off top-seeded Quinnipiac in the quarterfinals. Brown fell to Cornell in the ECAC semifinals 6-0, but that was a case of them being bested by the better team. A trip to the ECAC tournament marked it a wildly successful season for Brown. The roster is more or less the same, ensuring a similar regular-season finish.

Clarkson: The Golden Knights were one of the strongest teams in the ECAC thanks to balanced offense and defense. It helped Clarkson take the short trip to Lake Placid, where it won the ECAC championship in overtime. The Golden Knights lost two key pieces in Nico Sturm, who potted 45 points, and Jake Kielly, who posted a .929 save percentage. Clarkson should be able to replace Sturm’s scoring output, especially with 40-point scorer Haralds Egle returning. While goaltending will be a question mark, the Golden Knights will still be one of the strongest teams in the league.

Drafted players: Nick Campoli (VGK), Dustyn McFaul (BOS), Kris Oldham (TBL), Anthony Romano (ARI)

Colgate: The Raiders slipped last season, their win total decreasing from 17 to 10. They finished 10th in the league and were swept by Union in the first round of the playoffs. The good news is, Colgate returns nearly the entire roster, and the experience should benefit them. The bad news is, the Raiders don’t have much to build on.

Cornell: The Big Red dropped the ECAC championship game in overtime after the referees failed to blow the whistle when the net dropped on goaltender Matthew Galajda. He was injured, so Austin McGrath took over for the rest of the game and throughout the postseason. McGrath helped Cornell to a regional win over Northeastern. Aside from losing a couple seniors, the Big Red will return their leading scorer, Morgan Barron, along with Galadja, making them one of the league favorites.

Drafted players: Matt Cairns (EDM), Matthew Stienburg (COL), Alex Green (TBL), Morgan Barron (NYR), Jack Malone (VAN), Misha Song (NYI)

Dartmouth: After finishing T-5th last year, the Big Green knocked off 12th-place St. Lawrence in the first round of the playoffs. With much of their roster returning, the Big Green should finish in roughly the same place, especially if Adrian Clark can build off his .910 save percentage from at last season.

Harvard: Adam Fox’s departure is unfortunate for the Crimson, since he not only led the team with 48 points but was also one of the best defensemen in the country. Harvard still has its offensive leaders, including Reilly Walsh and Casey Dornbach. Goaltender Michael Lackey also graduated, but he missed some of last season with an injury, opening up the net for Cameron Gornet. Gornet filled in well, and can put the Crimson in a prime spot for another top-four ECAC finish.

Drafted players: Jack Drury (CAR), Jack Badini (ANA), John Farinacci (ARI), Reilly Walsh (NJD), Nick Abruzzese (TOR), Mitchell Gibson (WSH), Jack Rathbone (VAN), Henry Thrun (ANA), Austin Wong (WPG)

Princeton: Just one season after winning the ECAC tournament, the Tigers struggled to repeat their success. Princeton’s top line of Ryan Kuffner, Max Veronneau and Alex Riche -- which combined for 107 points last season -- couldn’t bring the team past its lackluster goaltending hurdle. The trio, along with top defenseman Josh Teves, graduated, making the Tigers much weaker on both ends of the ice. Princeton’s success, or lack thereof, lies solely on goaltending. But most likely the Tigers will finish in the bottom half of the league.

Drafted players: Liam Gorman (PIT)

Quinnipiac: The Bobcats usually finish in the top half of the league and usually make the ECAC tournament. They finished first last year but were upset in the playoffs by Brown. Chase Priskie, another one of the top defensemen in the league, is gone. So is Andrew Shortridge and his .940 save percentage. The Bobcats are well-coached, though, and Odeen Tufto, who put up 42 points, will be back.

Drafted players: Keith Petruzzelli (DET), Karlis Cukste (SJS), Skylar Brind’Amour (EDM), Peter DiLiberatore (VGK)

RPI: The Engineers finished in 11th, just ahead of St. Lawrence and two points behind Princeton. RPI has struggled over the last few seasons, and most likely will this year as well. The team’s top five scorers are returning, although they didn’t score much to begin with. The goaltenders who played the most, Owen Savory and Linden Marshall, are also returning.

Drafted players: Todd Burgess (OTT), Simon Kjellberg (NYR), Will Reilly (PIT)

St. Lawrence: The Saints have struggled since Greg Carvel left for UMass. After earning just six overall wins and three conference wins, the school parted ways with Mark Morris and hired Brent Brekke. With a new coach, lack of elite talent and just a program-wide mess (the rink renovations are not finished, so the Saints are shifting their first few home games to a different rink.) Unless Brekke has magic powers, it seems likely the Saints will stay in the basement for the third-straight year.

Union: Union’s top two scorers graduated and the third, Liam Morgan, left after his sophomore season. Just one of the team’s top seven scorers is returning. On the other hand, Darion Hanson did have a .919 save percentage last season and, if he can replicate that, should keep Union in the middle third of the league.

Drafted players: Parker Foo (CHI), Jack Adams (DET)

Yale: Yale’s biggest loss was Joe Snively, who had 36 points last season, double that of the team’s second-place scorer. Corbin Kaczperski is the team’s sole returning goaltender. Like Quinnipiac, the Bulldogs are well coached and don’t often finish in the bottom third.

Drafted players: Curtis Hall (BOS), Jack St. Ivany (PHI), Luke Stevens (CAR), Phil Kemp (EDM)

Five Undrafted Free Agents to Watch from the ECAC

Haralds Egle, Clarkson
Odeen Tufto, Quinnipiac
Matthew Galajda, Cornell
Casey Dornbach, Harvard
Devin Brosseau, Clarkson

BOSTON, MA - MARCH 22: Massachusetts Minutemen forward Mitchell Chaffee (21) tries to put the puck past Boston College Eagles goaltender Joseph Woll (31). During the University of Massachusetts Minutemen game against the Boston College Eagles on March 22, 2019 at TD Garden in Boston, MA. (Photo by Michael Tureski/Icon Sportswire)

Hockey East:

Boston College: Despite winning just 10 conference games and finishing seventh in Hockey East, the Eagles surged late last season for a trip to the Hockey East tournament. Now the Eagles have that momentum plus an excellent incoming class that includes Spencer Knight, who’s expected to become a top goaltender. Alex Newhook and Matt Boldy will also be joining the team. It’s hard to predict how any freshman goaltender will fare, but Knight has the potential to boost BC back to the top.

Drafted players: Matt Boldy (MIN), Spencer Knight (FLA), Alex Newhook (COL), Drew Helleson (COL), Logan Hutsko (FLA), Jack McBain (MIN), Michael Karow (ARI), Graham McPhee (EDM), David Cotton (CAR), Aapeli Rasanen (EDM), Marshall Warren (MIN), Ben Finkelstein (FLA)

Boston University: Despite struggling last year the Terriers still managed to finish 5th in the league, but they will probably drop from that place. BU has struggled since David Quinn left for the NHL, and now they’ll be facing several additional critical departures including goaltender Jake Oettinger and the team’s leading scorers, Joel Farabee and Dante Fabbro. BU’s success, or lack thereof, will depend mostly on coaching, and then on contributions from the incoming freshman class and someone shining in net.

Drafted players: Trevor Zegras (ANA), Robert Mastrosimone (DET), Alex Vlasic (CHI), Cam Crotty (ARI), David Farrance (NSH), Domenick Fensore (CAR), Kasper Kotkansalo (DET), Jake Wise (CHI), Case McCarthy (NJD), Ethan Phillips (DET), Patrick Harper (NSH), Logan Cockerill (NYI)

Connecticut: Since joining Hockey East, the Huskies have fluctuated in the standings, taking advantage of years when the league has been weak. Though they finished ninth last year, they will benefit from having two of their top three scorers returning. Goaltender Tomas Vomacka, who took over the net with a .922 save percentage, will also be back.

Drafted players: Vladislav Firstov (MIN), Ruslan Iskhakov (NYI), Carter Berger (FLA), Jachym Kondelik (NSH), Kale Howarth (CLB), Tomas Vomacka (NSH)

Maine: Maine, far from its former glory, was able to finish sixth in the league. It is returning Mitchell Fossier, the leading scorer from last year with 36 points. But the Black Bears had a slew of early departures - including sophomore defensemen Alexis Binner and Brady Keeper. Goaltender Jeremy Swayman, who posted a respectable .919 save percentage, will be back, though.

Drafted players: JD Greenway (TOR), Jeremy Swayman (BOS), Patrick Shea (FLA), Matthew Thiessen (VAN)

UMass-Lowell: The River Hawks have been one of Hockey East’s most consistent teams in the last decade or so, and they finished fourth last year. UMass-Lowell’s offense lost its top two scorers, but the back end has usually been the team’s strength. Goaltender Tyler Wall, who is returning, carries a .921 save percentage into the season.

Drafted players: Seth Barton (DET), Logan Neaton (WPG), Tyler Wall (NYR), Andre Lee (LAK)

Massachusetts: After its most successful season in program history and a national championship appearance, the Minutemen were extremely lucky to only lose Cale Makar and Mario Ferraro early. Those are big names, but usually teams with surprising successful runs lose more players in the offseason. Yet UMass retained Mitchell Chaffee and John Leonard, who combined for 82 points. They also still have Marc Del Gaizo, who was the leading freshman defenseman in scoring with 29 points. That said, goaltender Filip Lindberg is the player to watch. His play was key in edging out Denver in the national semifinal and he limited Minnesota-Duluth to three goals, which is an accomplishment. If he repeats his .934 save percentage performance, the Minutemen should take a top spot in Hockey East.

Drafted players: Zac Jones (NYR), Marc Del Gaizo (NSH), John Leonard (SJS), Filip Lindberg (MIN)

Merrimack: With 16 freshman, Merrimack will have the largest rookie class in the country. The Warriors won just seven games last year, but it was Scott Borek’s first season in charge and it typically takes coaches around three-four years to settle in, start their own systems and recruit their own players.. The incoming class signals a roster changeover, so this will be one of those “rebuilding” years.

Drafted players: Patrick Holway (DET)

New Hampshire: It’s Mike Souza’s second year as head coach of the Wildcats, who are still transitioning to life without Dick Umile. They didn’t lose much and have two of their leading scorers as well as goaltender Mike Robinson, who posted a .913 save percentage, returning. While it isn’t fair to say the Wildcats are rebuilding, they’re stuck in stasis.

Drafted players: Max Gildon (FLA), Mike Robinson (SJS), Angus Crookshank (OTT), Benton Mass (WSH), Ty Tailor (TBL)

Northeastern: The Huskies have surged at times over the past five seasons. Last year they took advantage of BU and BC’s struggles, finishing second in the conference with 15 wins. But part of Northeastern’s success came from good defense and goaltending, which will suffer with the early departures by Jeremy Davies and goaltender Cayden Primeau. Since Primeau was a big part of Northeastern’s rise, it’s tough to see the Huskies repeating last year’s success.

Drafted players: Jayden Struble (MTL), Matt Filipe (CAR), Jordan Harris (MTL), Tyler Madden (VAN), Ryan Shea (CHI), Mike Kesselring (EDM), Riley Hughes (NYR), Aidan McDonough (VAN)

Providence: Following its second Frozen Four appearance in four years, the Friars also got hit with key offseason departures. Kasper Bjorkqvist, Jacob Bryson, Brandon Duhaime and Josh Wilkins all left early. Additionally, Hayden Hawkey, who posted a .920 save percentage, graduated. But Providence is always a well-coached, tough defensive team to play against, and the Friars will finish at the top of the league again.

Drafted players: Ben Mirageas (NYI), Max Crozier (TBL), Tyce Thompson (NJD), Michael Callahan (ARI), Jack Dugan (VGK), Patrick Moynihan (NJD), Jake Kucharski (CAR)

Vermont: The Catamounts finished 10th last year and probably won’t rise, unless goaltender Stefanos Lekkas can put up more than his .930 save percentage from last season, but that’s a lot to ask of a goaltender. Vermont saw a couple departures with Jake Massie and Liam Coughlin, but most of its players are returning.

Drafted players: Bryce Misley (MIN)

Five Undrafted Free Agents to Watch from Hockey East

Mitchell Chaffee, Massachusetts
Stephanos Lekkas, Vermont
Spenser Young, Providence
Mitchell Fossier, Maine
Patrick Curry, Boston University

Frozen Four Recap – Minnesota Duluth Were Destined to Win Back-to-Back Championships

Russ Cohen — Sun, 21 Apr 2019 13:10:25 +0000

BUFFALO, NY - APRIL 13: Massachusetts Minutemen Defenseman Cale Makar (16) takes a shot on goal with Minnesota Duluth Bulldogs Defenseman Nick Wolff (5) defending and Minnesota Duluth Bulldogs Goaltender Hunter Shepard (32) defending during the first period of the NCAA Hockey Frozen Four championship game between the Massachusetts Minutemen and the Minnesota Duluth Bulldogs on April 13, 2019, at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire)

Game 1 – Providence vs. Minnesota Duluth

Minnesota Duluth was the better all-around team going up against the very defensive Providence College Friars. The first period was a real feeling out situation. The period ended scoreless, with Providence taking nine shots to UMD’s eight. UMD was 0-1 on the power play. Arizona Coyotes defensive prospect Michael Callahan led his team with two shots and blueliner Mikey Anderson, (Los Angeles) was tied for the lead for Duluth with two, along with undrafted senior defender Billy Exell.

In the second period, each team traded goals. Justin Richards got UMD on the board first with a goal at 6:39. Captain Parker Mackay and Matt Anderson got the helpers. Richards, an undrafted sophomore center, was smart and shot the goal between the wickets of Friars senior goalie and Edmonton Oilers prospect Hayden Hawkey.

At the 11:17 mark of the middle frame, the Friars tied it up. Josh Wilkins got the power play goal with Jacob Bryson and Brandon Duhaime getting the helpers. Wilkins, an undrafted junior center, who has since signed an NHL deal with Nashville, scored the goal from the right side and it was a beauty. Duhaime, was also certainly going to be signed at some point decided to go pro and the Minnesota Wild sent the fourth-rounder to Iowa in the AHL shortly after the conclusion of the Frozen Four.

The game was tied until 10:07 of the third frame. That’s when Exell scored to regain the lead for UMD. Kobe Roth and Dylan Samberg (Winnipeg), got the helpers. Samberg had a great game, with his usual solid defense. He covers what he is supposed to and contributes his share of offense as well. He will be a terrific NHL player someday, perhaps sooner than later. The next goal of the night, an empty netter, was his. Richards added his second of the game, an empty netter as well, before the final horn sounded. The final score was 4-1. UMD was back in the finals and there were not many people who didn’t think that this was going to happen.

Game 2 - UMass vs. Denver

UMass came into this game as the favorite, considering Cale Makar was the best player on the ice and possibly in all of college hockey. In fact, he was named as the most outstanding hockey player in the NCAA earlier in the week, when he was awarded with the Hobey Baker Award. Denver had a history of winning, so anything was possible. This was expected to be a closer game than the earlier match.

This game featured multiple headshots and ejections and UMass lost junior right winger Niko Hildenbrand first which could have proved costly.

Denver opened up the scoring at 8:59 of the first period when free agent left winger Colin Staub put the Pioneers up 1-0 with a power-play goal with assists from Kohen Olischefski and Cole Guttman, the latter a Tampa Bay prospect. Guttman assumes the top-line center role with the Pioneers and is always first to loose pucks.

UMass tied it up at 11:41 of the period, when free agent right winger Bobby Trivigno scored with the man advantage. Free agent left winger Jacob Pritchard (who has since signed a rookie contract with Carolina) assisted on the play along with Anthony Del Gaizo, a left winger who was having himself a solid tournament as a freshman.

Denver’s Ryan Barrow was the second player ejected from the match due to a headshot. UMass scored on the extended power play off a goal by sophomore right winger Mitchell Chaffee to make it a 2-1 game. The aforementioned Makar and Pritchard both assisted on the goal. John Leonard, a San Jose Sharks pick, added an additional power play goal to make it a 3-1 game, scoring with a wrist shot right up the gut. Mario Ferraro and Jake Gaudet got the helpers.

The second period started with UMass leading 3-1 and it also ended that way. The Minutemen lost Chaffee to a head shot but they managed to kill off the extended power play.

After missing on two power plays in the third period the lights were starting to dim on the Denver season until Cole Gutman scored on a high wrist shot to make it a 3-2 game.

At 16:14, Guttman would strike again with a clutch goal, this time from the lip of the crease. The game was tied at 3-3 in front of a raucous crowd and after the two teams traded chances, the game was headed to overtime.

The building was tense as the teams gave it their all in the overtime period. Eventually, at the 15:18 mark of that first overtime, Makar whipped a pass back to his d-partner, Marc del Gaizo, and he flexed his stick and hit the one-timer into the back of the net allowing UMass to advance with a 4-3 win. It was 12:03 am and the latest an NCAA game finished in the history of the tournament.

The Final: UMD vs. UMass

With two days off between the semifinals and the grand finale, this game started out with a lot of energy. That said, UMass was playing shorthanded as Bobby Trivigno had been suspended due to an unpenalized headshot in the Denver game. While perhaps not pivotal, this was a big loss of a second-line player for the Minutemen.

At 3:51 of the first period Parker Mackay deposited a goal in the corner of the net off a nice feed from Mikey Anderson. Anderson is a very accurate passer and he makes that pass from the point regularly, although this one counted more than most. Former Dallas first rounder Riley Tufte picked up the other assist. UMD had a 1-0 lead. When UMass got on the power play, UMD was able to kill things off with good play and better coaching.

UMD was 22-2-0 this season when they scored the first goal in the game, a fact which surely gave the Bulldogs additional energy.

Midway through the second stanza the score had held up. Makar had some nice plays and scoring chances in this game but couldn’t put any past UMD goalie Hunter Sheppard, who was a Mike Richter Award Finalist, for the best goaltender in NCAA hockey. Before the second period was over, Anderson broke free from the pack and scored on a nice wrist shot from the middle of the ice that UMass goalie Filip Lindberg never had a chance on, giving his team the commanding 2-0 lead in the second period. Mackay set up the goal, making a nice curl in the corner and keeping the puck on his stick before hitting the open Anderson in motion with only 23.5 minutes left in the game. Things looked bleak for UMass.

Late in the second Makar committed a penalty off a big shoulder hit knocking the other player over. He was called on an interference infraction and by that point, it was apparent that UMass was not going to win on this day.

The third period was more muted, and when freshman Jackson Cates shot a puck on the short-side at that made it a 3-0 game at the 17:18 mark, it was over. There wasn’t going to be a miracle comeback. Cates, 21, is the older brother of freshman Noah Cates, a Philadelphia Flyers draft pick who had a terrific regular and postseason playing mostly a top line grinding role with occasional flashes of his offensive potential.

The UMD penalty kill was the star of the game, killing all four of UMass’ power plays.

When the final whistle blew, the crowd in Buffalo stood and saluted the Bulldogs who beat UMass to cap off a great season, finishing as NCAA champions for the second season in a row and the third time this decade. UMass had never made it to the big game before. Shortly after the end of the game, star blueliner Cale Makar signed with the Colorado Avalanche.

On a side note:

Cale Makar made his NHL debut in the playoffs against the Calgary Flames. The fast-skating, smart defenseman has elite talent. When you are used to being the best player on the ice, as he was with UMass, and you have to generate a lot of the offense by the way you bring the puck up the ice and the passes you make to your teammates, joining an already rolling NHL team was the perfect scenario for him. He got his first goal in his debut by having his stick down and receiving a perfectly timed pass from Nathan MacKinnon before he ripped it home.

Nobody should be surprised that he had an immediate impact. Some players are that close and the better players around them get them up to speed quicker. Back in 2011-12, Chris Kreider left Boston College and joined the New York Rangers. He played in 18 games and scored five goals along with two helpers. The upper echelon college players, with international experience, can do that from time to time. With Colorado upsetting the top seed in the West in the first round, Makar will now have an extended opportunity to make a prolonged first impression in the NHL.

2018 NHL Draft Review: Pacific Division

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 06 Jul 2018 12:13:32 +0000

The draft is over and 217 young players are newly affiliated with 31 different NHL organizations. Outside of three to six of those players, who could jump right into NHL lineups in the fall, we will not know whether the vast majority of those players are draft successes for two, three, four, or five years.

The lack of clear foresight aside, we should still be able to judge draft classes at least in terms of expected value. In some cases, we can look at strategy as well, although the way the board shakes out based on the picks that came before, we can rarely truly discern what a club was trying to do, but only what they were able to do.

I had hoped that we would be able to provide an average Overall Future Projection of the various draft classes, but there are a few picks from the high school ranks, the NAHL and a few European junior leagues for whom we lack enough information to give a full grade, so we will focus on where we had players ranked as we assess the draft haul of each team, as we run division-by-division through the NHL.

Here is the Pacific Division

Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim Ducks
1 (23) Isac Lundestrom, C, Lulea (SHL) - ranked 19
2 (54) Benoit-Olivier Groulx, C, Halifax (QMJHL) - ranked 38th
3 (79) Blake McLaughlin, LW, Chicago (USHL) - ranked 40th
3 (85) Lukas Dostal, G, Slavia Trebic (Czech 2) - ranked 63rd
4 (116) Jackson Perbix, RW, Elk River HS (USHS - MN) - ranked 150th
5 (147) Roman Durny, G, Des Moines (USHL) - ranked Honorable Mention
6 (178) Hunter Drew, D, Charlottetown (QMJHL) - unranked

Two Euros, two from the Q, and three who spent a significant portion of their draft year in the USHL. One thing that we can say without hesitation is that the Ducks did not go out of their way to draft blueliners, nor did they make a point of reaching on younger, more projectable players. In fact, the opposite is true on the latter point. Lundestrom, their first rounder, has a late ’99 birthdate, while their last two selections were both born in 1998.

With only three netminders under the age of 26 in the system prior to draft day, one of whom is seemingly stalling out in the NCAA ranks, it makes sense that the team would seek to fortify that area. Goaltenders are notoriously tough to forecast, but we certainly liked Dostal, ranking him tops among all netminders eligible for the 2018 draft. Durny was more of a wildcard, spending the first half of his year with the Slovakia U20 team and coming over to play for Des Moines in the USHL after a promising showing at the WJC. He remained strong with the Buccaneers after coming stateside.

With their first two picks, the Ducks went with 200 foot centers with mature games. While neither projects as a first liner in the future, both could grow up to fill the middle six pivot roles. Blake McLaughlin is a personal favorite. In his first full USHL season, he was fantastic with the Steel in the early going, before hitting a rut around the same time that his team underwent a coaching change near mid-season. His playmaking chops are very impressive. Jackson Perbix, whose older brother Nick is a Colorado pick, was one of the younger players eligible and excelled with his high school team before struggling to make an impact in the USHL with Green Bay. He is raw, but is a good skater and has promising puck skills. After ignoring defensemen with their first six picks, the Ducks selected Hunter Drew, a second year eligible blueliners from the Charlottetown Islanders in the sixth round. He has a decent shot and plays a physical brand of hockey, but his selection raised eyebrows. Overall, the Ducks got strong value with their first four picks, with three potential top nine forwards and getting one of the better goalies in the draft class. As we can endorse two of the last three picks as worthwhile gambles makes this a strong all-around influx to the Anaheim organization.

OFP – 53.25

Arizona Coyotes

Arizona Coyotes
1 (5) Barrett Hayton, C, Sault Ste Marie (OHL) - ranked 11th
2 (55) Kevin Bahl, D, Ottawa (OHL) - ranked 58th
3 (65) Jan Jenik, RW, Benatky and Jizerou (Czech 2) - ranked 72nd
3 (73) Ty Emberson, D, USNTDP (UDHL) - ranked 45th
4 (114) Ivan Prosvetov, G, Youngstown (USHL) - ranked 103rd
5 (142) Michael Callahan, D, Youngstown (USHL) - ranked 194th
5 (145) Dennis Busby, D, Flint (OHL) - ranked 188th
6 (158) David Tendeck, G, Vancouver (WHL) - unranked
7 (189) Liam Kirk, LW, Sheffield (EIHL) - ranked 177th

Like Anaheim, the Arizona Coyotes added two netminders to the team in the 2018 draft. Unlike the Ducks, the Coyotes came away with greater positional balance in their draft haul. On top of their two new netminders, Arizona drafted four defenders, one center, one left winger and one right winger. Perhaps coincidentally, Coyotes draft picks skewed towards the younger end of the class, at least among position players. Six of the seven skaters were born in 2000 (both goalies had ’99 birthdates) and Jan Jenik was born on the last day of eligibility for the 2018 draft class. It is feasible to assume that the more projectable players somewhat offsets the fact that the team did not draft anyone who was widely considered to have any elite characteristics among their essential scouting attributes. Even fifth overall pick Barrett Hayton was largely thought of as offering better value in the 10-15 range than as a top five player. He is certainly skilled and his upside may have been masked somewhat by playing a third line role for much of the season with the powerhouse Greyhounds. He does everything at an above average level, but did not consistently show anything truly high end. Those who really like him see a second line player, but clearly Arizona sees some first line potential.

Looking at the other forwards, Jenik was sometimes overmatched playing with adults in the second Czech league. He has good hands, and showed promising playmaking touch at the WU18s, but needs to show more ability to drive the offense to truly profile as having top six potential. Their last forward taken, Liam Kirk, is one of the big wild card of the draft, as one of the only players drafted out of the British league in NHL draft history. Both he and Jenik are posed to move to the OHL next year, to Peterborough and Flint, respectively. The four defensemen selected by Arizona are also lacking in ceiling, although second rounder Kevin Bahl is so tall, it is too ironic to consider a low ceiling player. To have taken him as high as they did, the Coyotes must believe his showings in the Top Prospect Game and the WU18s are more indicative of what he might become than his regular season production with the 67s was.

Ty Emberson lacks great offensive game, but is one of the bigger hitters in the draft class. Michael Callahan is pretty much a stay at home, first pass defender. Like Liam Kirk, the last blueliner taken by Arizona, Dennis Busby, is a wild card. As injuries limited him to a mere two games this season, they are banking on previous displays carrying through to his return to health. Of the two goalies selected, Ivan Prosvetov was a second year eligible netminder, who had some big games for Youngstown in the USHL as he carried the club to the Clark Cup finals. Davide Tendeck was one of the few first time eligible goalies to see regular action in the WHL and was consistently strong for Vancouver. On the whole, the Coyotes picked up a lot of solid prospects, but they mostly look like role players going forward. On the heels of last year’s defense-heavy class, including Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Michael Karow, Filip Westerlund, and others, I sense a trend. Hayton could clearly be much better than that, but taking him fifth overall, considerably higher than expectations, means that the Coyotes are staking their scouting reputation on his hidden upside and that all eyes will be on his development.

OFP – 52.75

Calgary Flames

Calgary Flames
4 (105) Martin Pospisil, RW, Sioux City (USHL) - unranked
4 (108) Demetrios Koumontzis, LW, Edina HS (MN HS) - ranked Honorable Mention
4 (122) Milos Roman, C, Vancouver (WHL) - ranked 70th
6 (167) Mathias Emilio Pettersen, C, Muskegon (USHL) - ranked 198th
7 (198) Dmitri Zavgorodny, C/LW, Rimouski (QMJHL) - ranked 94th

Five forwards. None that you would want to write about to your mother in a postcard from Dallas. Calgary surrendered its first two picks to the Islanders in the Travis Hamonic trade while the third rounder moved to Arizona as part of the Mike Smith package. They did not pick until the fourth round, the 30^th of 31 teams to get to test their microphones in anger. In fairness to the Calgary scouting staff, after 100 picks are off the board, you can only get what you can. The differences between players at that point is relatively minimal. That said, to use that first pick on a player like Martin Pospisil is head-scratching, to be polite. With a player like that, one would think Brian Burke’s truculent ideal was still the order of the day. Pospisil is nothing if not a dirty player. His 253 penalty minutes for Sioux City led the USHL by 77 over the runner up. Demetrious Koumontzis is an intriguing player, who flashed nice offensive tools in the Minnesota high ranks but has only appeared in one game at a higher level. He will be tested with Arizona State next season.

Milos Roman generated interest in the first half with Vancouver and had his moments with Slovakia at the WJC, but missed much of the second half with a high ankle sprain. A healthy season could make this pick look like a value find down the road. Mathias Emilio Pettersen was the only player of Norwegian origin selected this year. He was a good middle six player at the USHL level, so his ceiling is suitably limited, but he is not without his merits. Finally, the Flames saved their home run swing for the end, taking the prototypical enigmatic Russian in Dmitri Zavgorodny. He was stellar at the Ivan Hlinka (10 points in five games) but struggled for long stretches during the regular season in the ‘Q’. If there is an interesting note about the Flames’ picks this year is that they went hard on players taking the college route after largely ignoring that class in recent years. Also, and this last point must be a coincidence, even though all five forwards were selected from North American programs, four of them crossed the pond as import players, with only the high schooler Koumontzos being North American by birth. There is not much upside in this draft class, nor much variety.

OFP - 50.25

Edmonton Oilers

Los Angeles Kings
1 (20) Rasmus Kupari, C, Karpat (Liiga) - ranked 21st
2 (51) Akil Thomas, C, Niagara (OHL) - ranked 26th
3 (82) Bulat Shafigullin, LW/C, Reaktor Nizhnekamsk (MHL) - ranked Honorable Mention
4 (113) Aidan Dudas, C, Owen Sound (OHL) - ranked 52nd
5 (144) David Hrenak, G, St. Cloud State (NCHC) - ranked Honorable Mention
6 (165) Johan Sodergran, C/LW, Linkoping J20 (SuperElit) - ranked Honorable Mention
6 (175) Jacob Ingham, G, Mississauga (OHL) - ranked 126th

Like their provincial rivals in Calgary, the Oilers only made five selections on draft day. Unlike the Flames, the Oilers made them count. That is the difference between not picking until the fourth round and making three selections in the first two rounds. After being heavily rumored to be trying to trade up, when certain picks in the top ten played out as they did (I’m looking at you, Arizona), Edmonton stuck with their appointed tenth overall pick and snapped up Evan Bouchard, a natural puck moving defenseman who more than makes up in puck skills and IQ what he lacks in skating (he doesn’t really lack skating, although his wheels are not dynamic). He is perhaps one more season dominating the OHL away from claiming a spot on the Edmonton blueliner. The Oilers were opportunistic again in the second round, with Ryan McLeod falling into their laps even as many saw him as a probably first rounder going into the season and throughout his draft season. Like his older brother, New Jersey prospect Mikey, Ryan McLeod is a fantastic skater with a strong hockey mind, but may not be the most creative.

Later in the second, the Oilers added to their growing collection of talented young puck stoppers with Drummondville’s Olivier Rodrigue the second ranked goalie by our projections. He is mildly undersized by modern netminding standards, but has proven his ability to be a workhorse and succeed. After sitting out for three rounds and change, the Oilers took a flyer on New Hampshire prepster Michael Kesselring, a lanky blueliner who defends well and seems to be able to move the puck. He is expected to spend this coming season in the USHL with Des Moines, before attending Merrimack. They ended their draft class with a foray into Europe, taking winger Patrik Siikanen from the Junior ranks. Although he has limited international experience, Siikanen’s boosters appreciate his offensive tools, seeing an above average shot and strong puck skills. He needs to improve his skating to have a chance in North America. With only five picks, the Oilers seem to have done well to get three players with high end upside. Even their two flyers have reasons for optimism.

OFP – 53.75

Los Angeles Kings

Los Angeles Kings
1 (20) Rasmus Kupari, C, Karpat (Liiga) - ranked 21st
2 (51) Akil Thomas, C, Niagara (OHL) - ranked 26th
3 (82) Bulat Shafigullin, LW/C, Reaktor Nizhnekamsk (MHL) - ranked Honorable Mention
4 (113) Aidan Dudas, C, Owen Sound (OHL) - ranked 52nd
5 (144) David Hrenak, G, St. Cloud State (NCHC) - ranked Honorable Mention
6 (165) Johan Sodergran, C/LW, Linkoping J20 (SuperElit) - ranked Honorable Mention
6 (175) Jacob Ingham, G, Mississauga (OHL) - ranked 126th

Who needs wingers? Who needs defensemen? Apparently, the LA Kings did not, at least not on draft day. Of their seen selections, two are netminders (another odd trend so far in the Pacific Division) and the other five all are listed at least dually as centers. Unlike some teams, who we feel may have reached to draft centers where they did, the Kings got some pretty good value in getting both Rasmus Kupari and Akil Thomas where they did. We had both players ranked as first round talents, with Kupari bringing near-elite skating speed to the game along with tools that grade out as average to above elsewhere across the board. Thomas is a very good skater, too (although not as blinding as Kupari) and plays a more cerebral, playmaking, responsible game. His style, which has the optics of lacking in intensity, may have allowed him to drop as far as he did. We were not as high on Shafigullin as some, but his production in the Russian junior leagues was undeniably impressive and his tool collection can shine. His decision making may hold him back for a while, but there is home run potential, provided patience. That said, if we could quibble about that pick, we wholeheartedly support the taking of the undersized Aidan Dudas in the fourth round. A 5-7”, 165 offensive force, he may not be Alex DeBrincat redux, but he is as close as we are going to get in this draft class. He also serves as another point of evidence that the Kings under Rob Blake are different that the Kings under Dean Lombardi.

The final forward selected, Johan Sodergran, has the biggest frame of any of their skating picks and his physical game is his most advanced characteristic, but his production in the Swedish top junior league (SuperElit) was impressive enough and Linkoping played him for a good chunk of the season in the SHL as well. His upside is lowest among their forwards selected, but he has a reasonable floor to bank on. Moving to the goalies, the first one chosen, David Hrenak, has a fair bit of international experience under his belt with Slovakia and spent last year – his second of draft eligibility – playing with the Kings’ favorite NCAA program, at St. Cloud State. Other prospects, current and recent in the Kings’ organization who spent their college years playing for the Huskies include Jonny Brodzinski, Mikey Eyssimont, Kevin Gravel, and Nic Dowd. Hrenak is an even-keeled netminder who does a good job of limiting second chances. The final goalie selected, Jacob Ingham, saw his stock drop precipitously over his draft year, as his save percentage dropped from .907 in 2016-17 to a very disappointing .880 this year. On the other hand, he is very big and has all the tools, so while he is a gamble, in a major sense, all goalies are. We could knock the Kings a touch for eschewing defensemen altogether in their draft class, but would prefer to applaud their approach in drafting for upside. I am not completely on board with taking two netminders, but there was a clear organizational lack going into the draft, and as both were late round picks, the risk is at least mitigated.

OFP – 53.75

San Jose Sharks

San Jose Sharks
1 (21) Ryan Merkley, D, Guelph (OHL) - ranked 31st
3 (87) Linus Karlsson, C, Karlskrona J20 (SuperElit) - ranked 125th
4 (102) Jasper Weatherby, C, Wenatchee (BCHL) - unranked
6 (176) Zacharie Emond, G, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL) - unranked
6 (182) John Leonard, LW, U. Mass-Amherst (Hockey East) - unranked

To mix metaphors horribly here, the San Jose Sharks swung for the fences on day one of the 2018 draft, ultimately hitting a double, and then spent day two trying to bunt the baserunner over. As far as skilled are concerned, Ryan Merkley is much better than his slot in either our rankings (31) or even where he was selected by the Sharks (21). He is a fantastic skater and puck mover, the epitome of the modern defensive quarterback. His game away from the puck is raw enough that he might not project as a first pairing blueliner, but he could be a strong #3 if paired up with a more responsible type. He could also manage the power play. The reason he was ranked where he was and was drafted where he was, was due to persistent questions about his maturity and commitment to playing a team game. Late interviews with Merkley, including one with our own Scott Crawford (embed link here: https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-scouting-combine-2018-notes-results/), indicate that he understands the concern and is eager to put in the effort to put it in the past. The Sharks believe that he can.

After sitting out the second round, the Sharks took a bet on the two way game of Swedish teenager Linus Karlsson, who despite putting up fantastic numbers in the SuperElit, projects as a middle six, 200 foot center at maturity. Fourth rounder Jasper Weatherby is an intriguing late bloomer. In his first year of draft eligibility, the Oregon native was playing AAA 18U hockey in the Omaha area. In his second year of eligibility, the big forward moved to the BCHL and held his own with Wenatchee in a depth role. In his third year of eligibility, he committed to North Dakota, led the BCHL in scoring, helped the Wild to the BCHL and RBC Cup championships and heard his name called in the fourth round by San Jose. Zacharie Emond was the backup goalie for Rouyn-Noranda in the QMJHL and struggled throughout the season. He has good size and hints at technique, but we remain skeptical. Finally, the Sharks drafted another third year eligible forward in John Leonard of the Mass-Amherst Minutemen. Leonard was a solid (not standout) player in two years with Green Bay in the USHL, but seemed to blossom as a freshman, leading his team in scoring. He has a solid shot. If Merkley pans out, it will not matter at all how the other four do. If Merkley cannot find the maturity, on and off the ice, that he needs, the Sharks might find themselves shut out from this draft class.

OFP – 49.75

Vancouver Canucks

Vancouver Canucks
1 (7) Quinn Hughes, D, Michigan (Big 10) - ranked 6th
2 (37) Jett Woo, D, Moose Jaw (WHL) - ranked 41st
3 (68) Tyler Madden, C, Tri-City (USHL) - ranked 60th
5 (130) Toni Utunen, D, LeKi (Mestis) - ranked 145th
6 (186) Artyom Manukyan, RW, Avangard Omsk (KHL) - unranked
7 (192) Matthew Thiessen, G, Steinbach (MJHL) - ranked 119th

The Vancouver Canucks would be wise to allow Quinn Hughes one more ear to develop with the Michigan Wolverines, but they have just drafted a future first pairing defending with immense offensive upside and an overall dynamic game. He is a pleasure to watch skate and manage the puck. From the WJC to the end of the season, Hughes improved his game as much as any draft eligible prospect. He will never be a big, muscular defender, but he has enough strength and understanding of positioning to make do. With their second rounder, the Canucks took a player whose skillset is nearly an exact inverse to that of Hughes, at least style-wise. Where Hughes is the epitome of the modern day defender, Woo is a throw-back. While he can handle the puck well enough, he sticks out for his physical style away from the puck. A little Yin, a little Yang. He might have been a first rounder had he not dealt with some long term injuries this season. In third rounder Tyler Madden, the Canucks get another player who is as valuable off the puck as he is on. Unlike Woo, though, Madden is a forward, like his father, Selke Winner John Madden. He is small and slight, but skates well and has a very advanced hockey mind.

In the fifth and sixth rounds, the Canucks continued to eschew size. Utunen, from Finland, is listed at 5-11”, 170, and Russian forward Manukyan is listed at 5-7”, 139. Utunen lacks anything above average in the way of his skills, but reads the game very well and makes up for his shortcomings with high hockey IQ. Manukyan, as noted, is tiny, but he is shifty, and spent half of this season, his third of draft eligibility, playing in the KHL. Looking at the five skaters as a group, Woo, listed at 6-0”, 201 is the only skater from the Vancouver draft class whose height starts with a “6” or whose weight starts with a “2”. For an organization with a reputation for building for toughness at the NHL level, it is interesting to see them going with skill over size with their amateur scouts. Finally, the Canucks tabbed netminder Matthew Thiessen with their last pick, after a very impressive showing with Steinbach at the RBC Cup. He is a relatively athletic goaltender, he reads the play well and plays a composed game. He will move to Dubuque of the USHL next season before attending the University of Maine beginning in the 2019-20 season. All told, the Canucks added a lot of strong pieces to their organization. Their emphasis on skill bodes well for the future of the team.

OFP – 53.5

Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas Golden Knights
2 (61) Ivan D. Morozov, C, Mamonty Yugry (MHL) - ranked 76th
4 (99) Stanislav Demin, D, Wenatchee (BCHL) - ranked 86th
4 (115) Paul Cotter, C, Lincoln (USHL) - ranked 184th
5 (135) Brandon Kruse, LW, Bowling Green State (WCHA) - unranked
5 (154) Connor Corcoran, D, Windsor (OHL) - ranked 202nd
6 (180) Peter Diliberatore, D, Salisbury School (USHS - CT) - unranked
6 (185) Xavier Bouchard, D, Baie-Comeau (QMJHL) - ranked 129th
7 (208) Jordan Kooy, G, London (OHL) - ranked Honorable Mention

With both their first and third round draft picks sent to Detroit in the Tomas Tatar trade, the expansion Golden Knights (this should be the last time they are referred to as an “expansion” team) had only one pick in the first three rounds. As a direct consequence, they were severely limited in the upside of the players available to them in Dallas. Accordingly, they struck upon a tactic of drafting less from the CHL then they had in their first draft. After taking six players from the Canadian Junior ranks last year, only three of the Golden Knights’ eight picks this year were CHLers. That would usually mean a European heavy sled, but in Vegas’ case this year, they went heavy on the NCAA route, selecting one current collegian and three who should get there within a year or two. All told, the Golden Knights will have three or more years to decide on most of their 2018 draft class, and that is not a bad thing.

Their first pick, Ivan Morozov, had a strong season with the Mamonty Yugry junior team in the MHL, and is the type of player who lacks weaknesses, but also lacks any one standout area to his game. In May he was dealt to the powerhouse SKA St. Petersburg organization and we are a few years away from learning if he has upside potential beyond decent middle six forward. While their next pick, Slava Demin, also has a Russian name and heritage, Demin was actually born and raised in California, and spent the last two years developing with Wenatchee in the BCHL. He has a strong point shot and plays a relatively physical game. The level of competition he will see at the University of Denver will be a good test for him. Keeping it collegiate, both of their next two picks will also be in the NCAA next season. Paul Cotter is a high energy scoring type who will be moving from Lincoln in the USHL to Western Michigan where he might have to prove he can contribute to his team even if he is not playing a top six role, while Brandon Kruse is returning to Bowling Green State for his sophomore season. He did not garner much attention in his first year of eligibility playing in the NAHL, but he earned a selection as an all-rookie player in the WCHA thanks to his playmaking acumen and may be a late bloomer, even if he has yet to fill out his smallish frame.

The Golden Knights finally went to the CHL with their late fifth round pick, taking a low ceiling blueliner in Connor Corcoran, a player who watched the Windsor Spitfires win the Memorial Cup from the press box, but took on a regular role this year and is a plus skater, if none of his other attributes grade out more than average. With an August 2000 birth date, he may yet have untapped upside. Of their two sixth rounders, New England prep school blueliner Peter Diliberatore was not really on our radar, but the undersized Quinnipiac commit has great nickname potential with that last name. Their other sixth rounder was squarely on our radar and is the top value selection made by Vegas in this draft class. Xavier Bouchard will never play on the power play as a pro, but between his high hockey IQ, plus size, and his strong physical game, he has an NHL ceiling, which is pretty good in and of itself in this sixth round. To wrap up their second draft class, the Golden Knights added a netminder (after coming away with three in their inaugural draft). Jordan Kooy was the backup for the London Knights last year, but may have the inside track on the starting job for 2018-19. He has solid athleticism and his technical game is relatively mature. Although there are no high end players in this draft class along the lines of the Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki, Erik Brannstrom trio from last year, the Golden Knights should be satisfied that they left Dallas with a lot of player who have NHL upside.

OFP – 51.5

USHL Playoff Preview: New format, wild results

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 20 Apr 2018 20:21:45 +0000

Looking to add more drama to its postseason, this season is the first in which the USHL has extended the playoffs through the addition of a best-of-three wildcard round, adding two teams to the festivities from each conference. Whereas the league had previously included only the top four from each conference in the playoffs, this year, the fifth and sixth teams received an extra chance as well.

The new setup sees the top two teams from each conference receive a bye week while the third through sixth teams played up to three games in three nights, all at the home arena of the higher ranked squad.

Perhaps in opposition to expectations, the wild card round saw three upsets in its four series. In the Eastern conference, third seed Muskegon fell in three games to sixth seed and defending champions, Chicago, a series capped by a game three overtime winner. Meanwhile, the fifth seed, Dubuque, won the first two games in Green Bay, negating the need for a winner-take-all finale.

In the Western Conference, third seed Fargo eliminated sixth seed Tri-City in short order, winning their two games by a combined score of 8-1. Fourth seed Sioux Falls feel to fifth seed Lincoln in three games. Like with the Muskegon-Chicago series, the home team won the first game, before dropping the next two, with the finale going to overtime.

The Conference semifinals begin tonight (Friday, April 20, 2018) with Youngstown hosting Dubuque, with the other three series beginning tomorrow evening.

Eastern Conference

Team USA (1) vs Chicago Steel (6)

This matchup may not be the mismatch the seeds suggest that it is. During the regular season, Team USA’s league games are effectively split between the USNTDP U17 and U18 squads. This arrangement was great for development, but usually pretty bad for the standings. Since rejoining the USHL in 2009-10, the USNTDP split team has only reached the postseason twice, and not since the 2011—12 season. Of the players who led this team during the regular season. Most of the top contributors will be unavailable for the postseason, as the bulk of the U18 squad, and some of the better U17 players, are currently in Russia representing flag and country at the World Under 18 Championships.

The leftover players are still very talented on the whole, but lacking in high impact. The players most likely to push the USNTDP onward are 2019 draft prospects Ryder Rolston, Matthew Boldy, and Trevor Zegras up front, and Henry Thrun from the blueline. All three forwards were point per game players in the regular season and are potential high end prospects for next year.

Jack Dugan, photo by Hickling Images.

The Steel are led by one of the top drafted prospects in the league in Jack Dugan, a Vegas pick and one of the best non USNTDP draft prospects for this year in Blake McLaughlin. The two made up two-thirds of a great top line over the first half of the season, but were split up around mid-season after a coach firing reminiscent of what took place in Flint of the OHL last year. They also have a very promising 2019 prospect of their own in Robert Mastrosimone. Steel games have been high event games this year. Only the USNTDP has scored more and no other playoff team (including the ousted wild-card entrants) have surrendered more. That said, if they stick with Finnish import Oskar Autio in net, they have a very good chance of getting to the conference finals.

Blake McLaughlin.

Draft eligible players to watch: For Chicago, pay attention to Blake McLaughlin. After exploding in the first half of the season, his production slowed measurably in the second half, but he scored twice in the wild card round. He is a dark horse pick in the late first round or early second round. For the US squad, Erik Middendorf is one of a select few who were not taken to Russia for the WU18 tournament. He is a decent two-way player who can skate. The Colorado College commit could be taken in the seventh round if he shows some offensive punch here.

Prediction: As they played Autio throughout the wild card round, I expect the status quo to remain for the best of five here. Chicago in five.

Youngstown Phantoms (2) vs Dubuque Fighting Saints (5)

Representing Exhibit A in why the Western Conference was the stronger one this year, both combatants here surrendered more goals than they scored this year, not something you would expect from a playoff team, much less the second seed from the East. Both teams have veteran rosters, with Dubuque bringing more size, although Youngstown plays a rougher game. The Phantoms somewhat make up for the time they spend in the penalty box by having a fairly strong penalty kill. Dubuque has been much more mediocre when it comes to special teams this year.

Alex Steeves

The Fighting Saints could have been much stronger this year, as their rosters includes three players drafted by NHL teams in Casey Staum (Mtl), Cole Guttman (TB) and Santeri Virtanen (Wpg). Unfortunately, injuries have meant that Dubuque has spent the majority of the season without any of the three and are not expected to have those players now either. Their offensive attack will be spearheaded by forwards Quinn Preston and Alex Steeves, the latter of whom is draft eligible. Joshua Maniscalco, a former USNTDP member, has been very productive from the blueline as well. Their goaltending looks to be a weakspot, despite Cole Weaver’s great work in shutting down Green Bay in the Wild Card round.

The Phantoms have more offensive weapons at their disposal, including Matthew Berry, Chase Gresock, and Michael Regush. They lack much offensive punch from their defensive corps, although midseason acquisition Michael Callahan has provided solid puck movement. The teams’ biggest strength, however comes from their stoppers. They likely expected to have Chicago draft pick Wouter Peeters claim the starters job this year – and he has been pretty good - but Russian import Ivan Prosvetov has been even better. No matter which netminder they choose for the playoffs, they will have a clear edge over Dubuque in the crease.

Curtis Hall. Photo by Hickling Images/courtesy of the USHL.

Draft eligible players to watch: From Dubuque, it can only be Alexander Steeves. The Notre Dame commit has a big engine and real offensive juice. The team’s leading scorer (seventh league-wide) always wants the puck on his stick and knows what to do when he gets it. From Youngstown, the pre-season pick would have been Curtis Hall, but he has shown that his lack of puck skill severely limits his upside. My personal favorite here is the goalie Prosvetov, who can absolutely dominate at his best. But he may not get the nod as Peeters is also very good. So I will pick Michael Callahan. He is not an exciting prospect, but the Providence commit does a lot of things quietly well.

Prediction: Youngstown in four. Between the top notch goaltending and the more diverse offensive attack, they will be tough to beat, especially under the assumption that Dubuque continues to play shorthanded.

Western Conference

Waterloo Black Hawks (1) vs Lincoln Stars (5)

The Waterloo-Lincoln series should be closer than the two teams’ relative place in the USHL standings would suggest. They both scored a hair under 200 goals on the season, although Waterloo has a team-level GAA of around 0.25 better. A factor that should play a role here is special teams play. Both teams are strong on the penalty kill, with Lincoln’s 84.7% kill rate coming second in the USHL. Waterloo, at 83.8% was not far behind. On the power play, however, the Black Hawks more than make up for the shortcoming when down a man. They had the league’s second best man advantage, scoring 23.6% of the time. Lincoln could only convert on 15.6% of their power plays.

That Waterloo power play was a result of some strong offensive talent. Draft eligible Jack Drury is by far the league’s top power play producer with 12 goals and 22 assists coming on the man advantage. The team captain sees the ice well and knows how to take advantage of the extra space a power play brings. Speedy Ben Copeland, veteran Jackson Cates and midseason addition Benjamin Finkelstein (Fla) make them hard to stop.

The goalie battle is also strong here. Both teams feature drafted goalies, on the roster with Matej Tomek (Phi) playing for Waterloo and Tomas Vomacka (Nsh) for Lincoln, but there is no guarantee that either of the latter get the nod. In the wild-card round, the Stars went with normal backup Derek Schaedig, after a rough outing in game one by Vomacka. The Black Hawks also have Jared Moe, one of the better draft eligible goalies in the league pushing Tomek for playing time.

Paul Cotter

Draft Eligible Players to Watch: From Waterloo, pay attention to Drury. His offensive output has been fantastic and has the requisite hockey IQ expected from a legacy player (Son of Ted Drury) and Harvard commit. The question hanging over his prospect value is whether he can produce enough at even strength. From Lincoln, keep an eye on Paul Cotter, who scored the overtime winner in game 3 of the wild card round. He is a good skater with a nice shot and outstanding questions about his upside.

Prediction: Waterloo in four. Lincoln is the most penalized team in the league, with a gap of 129 minutes between them and the runners-up. That will really hurt them as the Black Hawks can take advantage, and will take advantage, over and over again, presuming Lincoln continues to play their brand of hockey.

Omaha Lancers (2) vs Fargo Force (3)

This series promises to be the exact inverse of the above-discussed matchup of Team USA and the Chicago Steel. While the other series should be full of end-to-end rushes, and blaring goal sirens, Omaha vs Fargo is a matchup of the two stingiest teams in the league. Fargo surrendered 133 goals on the season, while Omaha allowed only 143. Both teams enter hot, with Fargo having won five in a row and nine of ten, while Omaha is riding an eight game winning streak.

The goaltending on both sides is stellar. The expected starter for Omaha, Zach Driscoll, finished second in the league with a .934 save percentage. Fargo’s Strauss Mann came in third, at .932. Should, for any reason, either team need to turn to its backup, Fargo’s Ryan Bischel came in fifth in save percentage and Omaha’s Vincent Purpura finished eighth. Omaha’s offensive attack is led by undersized Czech veteran Filip Suchy, who came in second in league scoring with 69 points. Noah Cates (Phi) and Cole Gallant also both finished with over 50 points. Cates, in particular, is a talented player of the puck. Fargo only had one 50 point scoring in Grant Hebert, but Danish import Jacob Schmidt-Svejstrup would have also reached that plateau were it not for time missed for the WJC and a subsequent injury. Fargo also has a number of defensemen who can contribute to the attack, including Ty Farmer, Spencer Meir, and Robbie Stucker (Clb).

Both teams are good on the PK, sharing identical 83.5% kill rate. On the power play, we see some separation. Omaha was very good this year, scoring on 19% of their man up opportunities. Fargo, on the other hand, put everyone to shame, with a USHL high 24.5% power play success rate. Neither team is overly penalty prone, though, so this element may be diminished in significance during this series.

Draft Eligible Players to Watch: Fargo has an older roster on the whole, without any first time eligible players of note. That said, 20 year old Danish winger Schmidt-Svejstrup turned a lot of heads with his goal scoring exploits at the beginning of the season. He lacks pace and likes to fly the zone early, but he knows how to get himself into scoring position. He finished the season with 26 goals in 40 games. On Omaha, Ryan Savage had the most pre-season hype, but has been largely disappointing. Defenseman Travis Mitchell plays a muscular, disruptive style on the blueline, and could be a late round pick, but the real player to watch is left winger Jack Randl. The Michigan commit has promising offensive touch and will be relied upon in the second wave of attack for the Lancers.

Prediction: This is the closest matchup of the round. Omaha wins in five, thanks to better offensive depth. Lots of close, one goal (or two, with the latter being an empty netter) decisions.

Should the first round proper prediction play out, the Conference finals will pit Waterloo against Omaha in the West and Youngstown against Chicago in the East. In that scenario, I see Omaha shutting down Waterloo and Youngstown outscoring Chicago to set up a Clark Cup matchup between Omaha and Youngstown. In this battle of second seeds, Omaha proves the old adage that “defense wins championships” and brings home their eighth Clark Cup championship, and their first since 2007-08.