Mike Hoffman – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – SAN JOSE SHARKS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sun, 08 Oct 2023 18:05:11 +0000

Review: In the entirety of NHL history, a defenseman has reached the 100-point milestone just 15 times. Erik Karlsson accomplished that feat in 2022-23, but despite recording 25 goals and 76 assists with San Jose, the Sharks finished near the bottom of the league with a 22-44-16 record. How did a team featuring one of the all-time greatest individual performances out of a defenseman do that bad? For starters, despite having an elite offensive blueliner, the Sharks’ overall defense was terrible, finishing 25th in 5-on-5 expected goals against (191.27). Some teams can mask a poor defense with good goaltending, but not the 2022-23 Sharks. James Reimer and Kaapo Kahkonen were a truly horrendous netminding duo, combining for a 3.64 GAA and an .886 save percentage. San Jose also had just four forwards breach the 40-point milestone and none reach 70 points, so even with Karlsson’s offensive efforts, the Sharks ranked 25th in goals per game (2.84). Without any help, Karlsson’s efforts ultimately just served to lower the Sharks’ chances of getting elite prospect Connor Bedard in the lottery and keeping them out of the top-three in the 2023 NHL Draft.

What’s Changed? The Sharks clearly need to rebuild and to that end, they dealt Karlsson to Pittsburgh over the summer, receiving a package that primarily included draft picks, but also resulted in San Jose getting veteran forwards Mikael Granlund and Mike Hoffman as well as defenseman Jan Rutta. The Sharks also acquired goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood from New Jersey to replace Reimer, who left as a free agent, and they accepted Anthony Duclair from Florida, who the Panthers moved mostly for cap purposes, but should get a chance to re-establish himself as a top-six forward in San Jose.

What would success look like? Another terrible campaign is probably in their best interests. The Sharks have failed to make the playoffs for the past four years, but they’ve been slow to fully commit to a rebuild, which has arguably only served to extend their period of pain. Even the 2023-24 squad is likely to be in that awkward position of being both bad and full of veterans. At least if they struggle, that’d position them to get another high draft pick and keep their focus squarely on the future. The veterans may be moved for further picks at the trade deadline.

What could go wrong? Things can’t get much worse in San Jose. Arguably, the worst-case scenario would actually be if the veteran cast of Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, Hoffman, Granlund and Duclair – the youngest of which is Duclair at 28 – do just enough to keep the Sharks out of the top-five in the next draft.

Top Breakout Candidate: Sharks fans looking for some reason to watch the 2023-24 campaign should pay attention to William Eklund. Taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2021 draft, Eklund has high-end potential and is coming off an encouraging campaign in which he recorded 41 points in 54 AHL contests along with two goals and three points in eight games with the Sharks. He has a chance to make the Sharks out of training camp and serve in a top-six capacity.

Forwards

Tomas Hertl

A power forward with soft hands, 29-year-old Hertl topped 60 points last season for the third time in his career. He is not especially fast but is excellent at using his size to protect the puck and extend plays in the offensive zone. Hertl is strong on faceoffs, winning more than 53.0% for his career and has been an effective play driver for the Sharks even if the supporting cast is suspect. Hertl could use some better goaltending behind him. He had a Corsi percentage of 52.5% and an expected goals percentage of 52.7% and yet the Sharks were outscored 68-53 with him on the ice in those situations. Hertl does not look for his own shot often enough. He had a nine-game stretch from March 4 through March 20 during which he recorded 35 shots on goal, putting four into the net, but that pace of shot generation was atypical and did not last. He followed up that stretch with 20 shots on goal in his next 11 games. Hertl started the season slowly, with four points (1 G, 3 A) in the first 10 games, but followed that up with 31 points (12 G, 19 A) over his next 25 games. Even with a shaky supporting cast, Hertl can be expected to contribute 25 goals and 65 points for the Sharks.

Logan Couture

The 34-year-old who has logged 927 regular-season games for the Sharks just put up 67 points (27 G, 40 A), tying the second highest single-season point total of his career. In November, he had an eight-game stretch during which he produced 11 points (7 G, 4 A). Couture can generate some offensive production, but he has a track record of mediocre possession numbers, and 2016-2017 was the last time that the Sharks outscored the opposition during 5-on-5 play with Couture on the ice. Oddly enough, he has become worse in the faceoff circle, which is unusual. Most players take some time to get accustomed to taking faceoffs in the league and get better as time goes on. In his first five seasons, Couture won 51.7% of his draws. Since then, he has won 46.6% and he took 1,349 faceoffs last season, easily the most of his career. Couture is at the age when age-related decline could start to have an impact, but 25 goals and 55-60 points should be within range for him because he is still going to play a major role in San Jose.

Anthony Duclair

An Achilles injury limited Duclair to just 20 games last season and he managed just two goals, but he contributed 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 20 playoff games and scored a career high 31 goals and 58 points the year before, so there is reason to be hopeful for a rebound in his production in a full season in 2023-2024. When he is on his game, Duclair uses his speed to get out ahead of the play and will cut hard to the net, where he is very comfortable finishing with a deke. While Duclair’s offensive game continues to soar, his play away from the puck has suffered, so that is an area of focus for the 2023-2024 season. Duclair played just 20 games last season and somehow had a 17-game goal-scoring drought, scoring in his second and 20^th games of the season. The Sharks are Duclair’s seventh NHL team, but they also offer a quality opportunity for a bounce-back season and if he could contribute 45 points, that would be a relatively strong bounce-back performance.

Mike Hoffman

A six-time 20-goal scorer, the 33-year-old winger nevertheless scored just 14 goals for Montreal last season, his lowest total since 2013-2014. Hoffman’s shooting percentage dropped in his two seasons with the Canadiens, to 9.6%, after scoring on 12.0% of his shots before that, so there is a chance that he could get a boost in his finishing rate. Even in a modestly productive season, Hoffman had a 14-game stretch during which he tallied 13 points (2 G, 11 A) and that occurred while he scored on just 5.3% of his shots. One thing to watch with Hoffman is how much ice time he gets in San Jose. He is entering the final season of his contract, and if he scores, there might be teams interested in acquiring him before the trade deadline, so the Sharks will have some incentive to put Hoffman in a position to succeed. Of course, success is a relative term at this stage of Hoffman’s career. If he finishes the season with 15 goals and 35 points, that will have to be considered a success.

Mikael Granlund

Although he is a veteran with four 50-point seasons to his credit, Granlund is coming off a miserable season which he finished by scoring five points (1 G, 4 A) in 21 games with the Penguins after he was acquired from Nashville at the trade deadline. He started the season much better, contributing 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 11 games for the Predators. The 31-year-old playmaker can play center and wing though with the Sharks’ influx of wingers this offseason, Granlund may be needed more in the middle of the ice. His shot generation, which was never his strong suit in the first place, has collapsed to less than 1.50 shots per game in the past three seasons and that really needs to change if he is going to have a positive impact. The move to San Jose will give Granlund a chance at a fresh start, albeit with a team that is likely to be fighting an uphill battle most nights. A 45-point season should still be well within his grasp, with the expectation that he can earn quality ice time on a team that lacks proven forwards.

Alexander Barabanov

The 29-year-old winger has played just three NHL seasons, and barely saw the ice when he played with Toronto in his first season, but Barabanov did record a career high 47 points (15 G, 32 A) in 68 games last season. He may have been the beneficiary of San Jose’s limited depth on the wings, as he ended up playing more than 18 minutes per game, but Barbaranov does not generate a lot of shots and his lofty percentages suggest that he does not have a lot of room to expect an increase in his production. He finished last season strong, tallying 19 points (9 G, 10 A) in his last 23 games, but that production came on just 38 shots on goal, which is not enough to expect those numbers to be sustainable. He should be able to go for 40 points again this season, but if newcomers eat into his ice time, his point totals could dip, too.

Kevin Labanc

Coming off an injury-shortened 2021-2022 season, Labanc contributed 33 points (15 G, 18 A) but he found himself on the doghouse, too, despite providing solid defensive play. From January 11 through March 11, a span of 16 games Labanc had one assist and averaged just 11:04 of ice time per game. His ice time and production picked up after that but with the Sharks acquiring a lot of new wingers in the offseason, Labanc is going to be facing a challenge for ice time in 2023-2024, which seems weird for the returning player who led Sharks regulars in Corsi percentage and expected goals percentage last season. At his best, Labanc is a strong passer with a heavy shot, one that he should try to utilize more frequently. Labanc accrued 56 points during the 2018-2019 campaign, but it feels like he is a long way from that now. A more reasonable expectation for this season is in the 35-point range but there is probably more upside for Labanc if he gets traded to a team that could use his skill in their top six.

Filip Zadina

The Red Wings had enough after Zadina managed just seven points (3 G, 4 A) in 30 games, but that frustration had been building for quite some time. He compiled 68 points in 190 games with the Red Wings, scoring 12 of his 28 goals on the power play, so the sixth pick in the 2018 Draft was given chances to produce and the numbers just weren’t there. Can he resurrect his career in San Jose? For Zadina, it’s worth a try and for the Sharks, they might as well buy low on him and see if he can recapture any of the form that made him such a highly touted prospect. Zadina’s most productive season in Detroit saw him produce a modest 24 points (10 G, 14 A) in 74 games in 2021-2022 and exceeding that might be the most reasonable target for his first season in San Jose. There is a world in which he secures a regular spot on a scoring line and possibly doubles that point total, but there is also a world in which the influx of wingers to San Jose leaves Zadina on the lineup bubble and then the point total could collapse.

Fabian Zetterlund

Acquired from the Devils as part of the Timo Meier trade, Zetterlund had a miserable start to his San Jose career, managing zero goals and three assists in 22 games for the Sharks, but doesn’t tell the whole story. Zetterlund had an expected goals percentage of 37.8% and San Jose was outscored 16-7 during 5-on-5 play with Zetterlund on the ice. At the start of the season, Zetterlund had an instant impact for New Jersey, scoring 13 points (5 G, 8 A) in his first 20 games for the Devils, but he could not keep that pace, following it up with zero goals and five assists in his next 20 games. Zetterlund is a sturdy winger who can battle down low to create scoring chances, but it remains to be seen if he has the ability to score enough to stay in the top half of the lineup. With so many players competing for spots on the wing in San Jose, Zetterlund has a wide range of outcomes, which could mean playing in the top six, or falling out of the lineup entirely. Given the uncertainty, expecting 25-30 points seems about right.

Nico Sturm

A reliable checking center, Sturm landed a bigger role in San Jose last season, playing a career high 14:44 per game and finishing the season with career highs of 14 goals and 26 points. Sturm has good size and won 55.8% of his faceoffs last season, so there is a role for him to fill. That role may not be appreciated as much on a team that is likely to be in a lottery position at season’s end. Even if he tends to play in more of a defensive role, Sturm is not shy about crashing the net to score greasy goals. He scored five goals during an eight-game stretch in October, which may have set unrealistic expectations, because he could obviously not continue that pace. With a secure spot in the Sharks lineup, Sturm could be expected to produce 25 to 30 points from his primarily defensive role.

Defense

Mario Ferraro

While he has never produced more than 17 points in an NHL season, Ferraro has played more than 21 minutes per game for each of the past three seasons and has put up more than 120 hits and 120 blocked shots in each of the past two. He is a strong skater whose defensive impact has declined, so he could use a rebound season to get back on track. While Ferraro’s peripheral stats are strong, he could be in the mix for more of an offensive role, mostly because someone has to take on the minutes that used to belong to Erik Karlsson. Although Ferraro’s career high is 17 points, he has been sharing a blueline with the likes of Karlsson and Brent Burns, both of whom are no longer in San Jose. Without any proven options ready to step into a bigger role on the Sharks blueline, Ferraro could take advantage of the opportunity and might have a chance to produce 25 to 30 points. It says something about the state of the Sharks defense that the blueliner who might have the greatest impact had a 24-game stretch last season during which he recorded a single assist.

Matt Benning

The 29-year-old blueliner played a career high 19:40 per game for the Sharks last season, finishing with a career best 24 points (1 G, 23 A). While those are not eye-popping numbers by any means, Benning is a proven commodity on the Sharks blueline and that will give him a chance to play a significant role in 2023-2024. Benning plays a heady game, thriving on smooth skating and good decision making with the puck, but has not been given a big role in his NHL career. Looking at the competition for playing time in San Jose, Benning is as good a bet as any to handle a more significant role. During a 10-game stretch in November and December last season, when he was playing nearly 21 minutes per game, Benning accumulated nine assists, so that small sample does suggest there could be some offensive potential if he gets consistent minutes. While that might be the case, expecting anything more than 25 points could be considered optimistic.

Kyle Burroughs

A 28-year-old who has played a total of 95 games, Burroughs showed enough potential in Vancouver last season to land a three-year contract with San Jose. He is not big, but plays an aggressive game, putting up 165 hits in 48 games for the Canucks. He is also not afraid to drop the gloves, when necessary. On San Jose’s rebuilding blueline, there will be a chance for Burroughs to earn a bigger role than he has ever had before in the NHL. He was effective enough in his limited role with Vancouver and if he continues to play with that edge to his game, that could give him him the inside track to a top-four role with the Sharks. Although Burroughs has just 11 points in 95 career games, he is poised to get what is, for him, an unprecedented opportunity on San Jose’s rebuilding blueline. It might not result in even 20 points, but Burroughs could also deliver 250 hits and 125 blocked shots over the course of a full season.

Goaltending

Mackenzie Blackwood

The San Jose Sharks just haven’t been able to figure out what to do in net lately. The Pacific Division team doggedly refused to move on from a floundering Martin Jones for almost too long, then went through a quick succession of short-term band-aids in James Reimer, Adin Hill, and Kaapo Kahkonen before trading for MacKenzie Blackwood this off-season. The hope, almost certainly, is that Blackwood will be able to reset his game and his mindset after struggling to produce in New Jersey amidst a rash of injuries.

There’s a potential for success there. Blackwood was far from what a playoff-bound New Jersey needed last year – he struggled with even more injuries, and prospect Akira Schmid proved he was more than ready to take over as an NHL regular to tandem with Vitek Vanecek. But his game style, which utilizes his bigger frame to take up space in the net and doesn’t require a lot of aggressive challenging or puck-handling, could be a better fit for San Jose than either Adin Hill or Kaapo Kahkonen’s more movement-reliant game play styles. And since Hill didn’t shine for San Jose (and Kahkonen will be back this season but didn’t do much to inspire confidence last year) it’s worth considering that moving in the other direction stylistically could work out in the team’s favor. Add in the fact that Blackwood performed much closer to his expected output last year than Kahkonen – he was near the middle of the pack across the league in terms of expected goals numbers, while Kahkonen was nearly at the bottom of the league altogether – and there’s reason to hope that this change in scenery will be exactly what Blackwood needs. Now, he just needs to prove he can stay healthy.

Projected starts: 40-45

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – MONTREAL CANADIENS – NHL Player Profiles

Ryan Dadoun – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 19:49:16 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - JULY 02: Montreal Canadiens center Nick Suzuki (14) gets ready to shoot the puck during the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Final game 3 between the Tampa Bay Lightning versus the Montreal Canadiens on July 02, 2021, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Nick Suzuki

To say the Montreal Canadiens had a rough 2021-22 campaign would be putting it lightly, but there were silver linings and Suzuki was one of the big ones. He set career-highs with 21 goals and 61 points in 82 games while averaging 20:31 minutes. The 23-year-old has established himself as a strong two-way center who can be deployed in all situations. He even averaged 1:30 shorthanded minutes last season, up from 0:45 minutes per game in 2020-21. At 5-foot-11, 201 pounds, he also has a physical aspect of his game, finishing fourth among Canadiens forwards with 89 hits. As good as he was overall though, it’s worth noting that like the team overall, he did significantly better after Martin St. Louis took over as the head coach. Under bench boss Dominique Ducharme, Suzuki had nine goals and 27 points in 45 games. It was good enough to lead the Canadiens in scoring, but it’s still a far cry from the 12 goals and 34 points in 37 contests he recorded under St. Louis. The new head coach did a great job of activating the team’s forwards and Suzuki should benefit from playing a major role during St. Louis’ first full season as a bench boss. Suzuki is set to begin an eight-year, $63 million contract this season. If he continues to mature as he has been, that should be a good deal for the Canadiens.

Brendan Gallagher

For much of Gallagher’s career, he’s been the type of player who you’d much rather have with you than against you. While his physical play doesn’t translate to a ton of hits, he nevertheless plays a gritty game. He’ll push to the front of the net and that’s his place of business when it comes to scoring goals. He also excels at getting under opponents’ skin and tends to draw penalties as a result. In 2021-22, he finished 15th in the league for penalties drawn/60 minutes (1.93) among those who played a minimum of 30 games. All that is particularly impressive coming from a player who lacks a size advantage. Gallagher is 5-foot-9, 184 pounds, which makes him among the smaller players in the league. His style of play has unquestionably has its benefits. At his best, he’s a fantastic winger, who surpassed the 30-goal milestone in back-to-back seasons in 2017-18 and 2018-19. The downside though has been the injuries he's suffered along the way and while he’s only now entering his 30s, there’s concerns that his game might lead to him aging faster than others. Perhaps we saw the first signs of that last season when he was limited to seven goals and 24 points in 56 games. However, it’s worth noting that he had an uncharacteristically low 4.9 shooting percentage, lacked consistent linemates, and was playing on a struggling team. So, it could have been a combination of bad luck and unfavorable circumstances that held him back in 2021-22 rather than him truly declining. Canadiens fans can be forgiven for feeling some anxiety when it comes to Gallagher given that he’s only through one season of the six-year, $39 million commitment Montreal made to him, but he is a bounce back candidate.

Josh Anderson

At the age of 28, it seems fair to believe that Anderson simply is what he’s shown himself to be. That’s not an entirely bad thing. He’s a big forward, standing at 6-foot-3, 226-pounds and will lean on that size advantage as evidenced by his 153 hits and 65 penalty minutes last season. He also can be a significant contributor offensively – at least some of the time. The trouble is, it doesn’t happen as often as some would hope, especially given that he’ll come with a $5.5 million cap hit through 2026-27. Anderson scored 27 goals and 47 points in 82 games with Columbus in 2018-19 and that remains his only 20-goal season. He’s come close in other campaigns and probably would have reached that mark in 2021-22 if he stayed healthy, but he’s no stranger to injuries and counting on him to have another 82-game season or something close to that might be hoping for too much. Another drawback is his inconsistency when he is healthy. He had pretty quiet stretches last season and unlike some other forwards, swapping head coach Dominique Ducharme for Martin St. Louis didn’t spark him. Anderson had nine goals and 16 points in 34 games prior to the coaching change versus 10 goals and 16 points in 35 contests after it. Ultimately, this is probably what Anderson is. He’s a power forward who is a good, but not great scoring threat. Even if he ends up consistently playing on the first line and stays healthy, he's not a sure thing to reach the 50-point milestone and those are ideal circumstances.

Evgenii Dadonov

It’s hard not to think of the trade that never was when dwelling on Dadonov. In an instance of extreme oddness, Vegas dealt Dadonov to Anaheim, only not really because it turned out that it violated the terms of his no-trade clause. The icing on that weird story was the fact that Dadonov went on a tear for Vegas after refusing the trade, scoring five goals and 16 points in 16 games the rest of the way, including a pair of game winners. That didn’t stop the Golden Knights from trading Dadonov – for real this time – to Montreal on June 16 in exchange for the contract of Shea Weber. Given that Weber won’t play again, Montreal essentially got him for nothing. Vegas desperately needed cap space, so they were motivated sellers, but it’s also fair to note that Dadonov hasn’t quite lived up to his present $5 million cap hit. Even with his strong finish to 2021-22, he recorded an okay, but not special 20 goals and 43 points in 78 games. In recent years, he’s simply been a middle-six winger and secondary scorer. He did have 65 and 70 points in 2017-18 and 2018-19 respectively while playing primarily with Aleksander Barkov back in his Florida days, so it’s hard not to wonder if there’s a world in which Dadonov finds some of that former glory while playing alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Keep in mind though that he’s 33-years-old and those campaigns were the only two examples of him even reaching the 50-point milestone. Certainly, keep an eye on him. He’s a skilled forward who has a real opportunity in Montreal and some added motivation given that he’s in the final season of his contract. Good things could happen here. Just don’t expect the world from him.

Mike Hoffman

From 2015-16 through 2019-20, Hoffman scored over 20 goals and 50 points every season, thanks in no small part to his success on the power play. At his height in 2018-19, he tied for fourth in the NHL with 17 power-play goals and tied for sixth with 35 power-play points. He missed those 20-goal and 50-point marks in 2020-21, but of course it was a shortened season. With 17 goals and 36 points in 52 contests, he was still on the right pace and his bread-and-butter remained the power-play. So when Montreal signed him to a three-year, $13.5 million contract in the summer of 2021, they were doing so with the justifiable belief that he’d be an important part of their offense. That didn’t end up being the case. Despite getting a healthy 17:03 minutes per game and a major role on the power play, he was limited to 15 goals and 35 points in 67 games. In terms of goals-per-game and points-per-game, 2021-22 was his worst season since 2013-14. That decline was largely a result of him taking a step back on the power play. He was limited to four goals and 13 points with the advantage. To be fair, Montreal as a team was abysmal on the power play, so it wasn’t a specifically Hoffman problem. It’s also worth noting that he’s one of the players who benefited from the coaching change. He had seven goals and 14 points in 30 games under head coach Dominique Ducharme then eight goals and 21 points in 37 contests with Martin St. Louis. While there might be a temptation to assume Hoffman’s down campaign is the start of his decline with age, there were mitigating factors and him bouncing back this season wouldn’t be shocking.

Christian Dvorak

When Montreal sent a 2022 first-round pick and a 2024 second rounder to Arizona on Sept. 4, 2021, in exchange for Christian Dvorak, they were hoping to get a solid two-way center who could slot into their second line. Dvorak had made strides with Arizona in 2020-21 and he was still young enough to have some potential upside. At the end of the day though, Dvorak had a mixed season with Montreal. He had 11 goals and 33 points in 56 contests, which is a new personal best for him in terms of points-per-game, but it was thanks to an extremely hot finish. From April 7 onward, he scored two goals and 13 points in 12 contests. Before that, the 2021-22 campaign was shaping up to be a disappointing one for him. He’s no stranger to having one or two hot streaks help define his season. In 2020-21 he started the season on a tear, scoring seven goals and 13 points in 12 contests before following it up with a stretch of just two goals and four points in 21 games. Those kinds of extremes can be frustrating, and the hope is that the 26-year-old will start to find consistency to his game. He’ll need to if he’s going to stay in a top-six role because newcomer Kirby Dach is projected to fight with him throughout the season for the second-line center slot. Overall, there’s plenty to like about Dvorak’s game. He’s great on the faceoff, responsible at his own end, and can even help kill penalties. If he can be the offensive force he’s shown flashes of on top of that, then he’ll be a steal at his current $4.45 million cap hit. That’s a big if though.

Rem Pitlick

Sometimes the right opportunity at the right time can make all the difference, just ask Pitlick. Going into the 2021-22, Pitlick had tastes of the NHL during his time with Nashville, but he could never earn a spot with the team. He joined the Minnesota Wild and was doing his part, scoring six goals and 11 points in 20 games even while averaging just 9:42 minutes. He couldn’t find an opening with the Wild though and they ultimately waived him on Jan. 11. Montreal, with nothing really to lose at that point, decided to take a chance on Pitlick and went all-in, giving him an average of 17:17 minutes per game. He responded well, scoring nine goals and 26 points in 46 contests. Montreal proved to be a good fit, but expectations for him going forward should be tempered. For one thing, he’s already 25-years-old, so he’s not a prospect and his upside is limited. At 5-foot-11, 196-pounds, he’s also not the biggest of forwards and he doesn’t play a physical game. His puck possession numbers last season left plenty to be desired too, with him finishing with a 43.5% and 43.3% 5v5 Corsi and Fenwick respectively and his relative Corsi/Fenwick were well in the negatives during his tenure with Montreal, suggesting that the team did better from a puck possession perspective when he wasn’t on the ice. It’s also important to note that he had a 23.1 shooting percentage, which seems unsustainable. There’s a lot of risk here and Montreal was wise to mitigate their commitment by signing him to a conversative two-year, $2.2 million contract.

Cole Caufield

Going into the 2021-22 campaign, the Montreal Canadiens knew they had a potential gem in Caufield. While he’s small by NHL standards at 5-foot-9, 162 pounds and doesn’t have much of a physical game, he has an amazing shot, and is a great skater. His offensive upside and in particular his goal scoring ability are close to top tier. He already had a taste of the NHL too, scoring four goals and five points in 10 regular season games in 2020-21 followed by eight goals and 12 points in 20 playoff contests. He consequently entered the season as a serious candidate for the Calder Trophy, but nothing went right early on. He recorded just one goal and eight points in 30 games under head coach Dominique Ducharme. When Martin St. Louis took over as the bench boss though, the transformation was instantaneous. He scored in his first game under St. Louis and ended up scoring 22 goals and 35 points in 37 contests with the new head coach. St. Louis said in May that the difference wasn’t the advice he gave Caufield, it was more about putting him in situations suited to his style of play. Perhaps it also helped that St. Louis was an incredibly successful undersized forward during his playing days, so he has a lot of insight into Caufield’s unique set of strengths and challenges. Regardless of the reason, Caufield clearly worked well under St. Louis and given that the two are set to start their first full season together, there’s a lot to be hopeful for. He has the potential to be a great top line forward for Montreal for years to come.

Jonathan Drouin

When it comes to Drouin, his health has become a big sticking point. He had two wrist surgeries over the last two years with the more recent one coming in April and that’s contributed to him playing just 105 games over the last three campaigns. Whether his wrist troubles are fully behind him and how much undergoing multiple wrist surgeries will potentially affect his game even if he does stay healthy are significant X-Factors. Prior to this though, he was a solid top-six forward and given that he’s 27-years-old, he’s certainly young enough to come back from this. He had six goals and 20 points in 34 games last season and almost all those games were under former bench boss Dominique Ducharme before the team made offensive strides with head coach Martin St. Louis. The coaching swap is both a potential boon and yet another X-Factor. On the one hand, most forwards have performed well under St. Louis and Drouin could prove to be yet another example of that, but we also don’t know too much yet about how Drouin will be deployed under the new coach. It at least helps that Drouin’s versatile. He’s primarily a winger and that’s his likely role this year, but he can also serve as a center in a pinch, so St. Louis has options here. The last time Drouin had a truly normal season was back in 2018-19 when he scored 18 goals and 53 points in 81 contests. Even with all the question marks surrounding him, the potential remains for him to get back to that level.

Kirby Dach

Taken by Chicago with the third overall pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, Dach never worked out with the Blackhawks. Standing at 6-foot-4, Dach is a big center who skates well, can protect the puck, and is willing to play in front of the net. There’s a lot to like here, but he hasn’t performed as hoped. In 2021-22, he had nine goals and 26 points in 70 contests despite averaging 18:03 minutes. It gets worse than him just not performing offensively though. Dach is awful on the draw. Among players who took at least 200 faceoffs last season, Dach finished last with a 32.8% success rate. He struggled on the draw in his first two NHL seasons too and that raises questions about the viability of continuing to deploy him as a center. It’s also worth noting that while he does use his size to his advantage in some respects like positioning and puck protection, he’s not someone who throws his body around much. He had an unremarkable 49 hits last season, so while he has the size of a power forward, that’s not really what he is. And yet despite those downsides, he does have a promising offensive tool set. The Montreal Canadiens clearly see that there’s still potential here because on July 7 they sent the 13th and 66th overall picks to Chicago in exchange for Dach. There is an argument to be made that Chicago asked Dach to do too much, too quickly, and was matching him up against top competition before he was ready. If Montreal can ease him in a bit more, then that might be for the best in the long run. With that in mind, Dach might not have a breakout season in 2022-23, but we could see him take a meaningful incremental step forward.

DEFENSE

Mike Matheson

The Canadiens finally fulfilled Jeff Petry’s trade request over the summer when they traded him to Pittsburgh, but Habs fans should like the main player they got in return, Matheson. For one thing, Matheson’s a local boy who grew up cheering for the Canadiens, so he already has roots in the city. Beyond that though, he’s a similar type of defenseman to Petry, so he can fill in for a lot of what the Canadiens are losing. Matheson is a strong two-way defenseman with speed and is coming off a great campaign where he set career-highs with 11 goals and 31 points in 74 games while averaging 18:48 minutes. He also had a 53.8% and 54.5% 5v5 Corsi and Fenwick respectively, which is better than how the Penguins did without him, so he was an asset from a puck possession perspective. That said, he’s not everything Petry was. Petry was someone who could help kill penalties, but Matheson averaged just 0:14 minutes shorthanded last season. Both have height, but even at 6-foot-2, Matheson isn’t an especially physical defenseman. His 97 hits last season was a career high while Petry has recorded at least 140 in five of his last six seasons. We also don’t know if Matheson’s offensive highs will ever reach Petry’s, who hit the 40-point milestone in four straight campaigns from 2017-18 through 2020-21. So, in a one-to-one comparison, it’s not a perfect match, but Matheson is also in his prime at the age of 28 while Petry is already 34. Matheson matches the Canadiens’ timetable to compete better and if he can continue to play like he did last season, he’ll serve Montreal well. He’ll receive every opportunity on a think Canadiens blueline.

David Savard

Savard scored 11 goals and 36 points in 82 games in 2014-15. To this day that’s easily his top season in terms of offensive production and that will likely always be the case. Even the three goals and 17 points in 62 games he generated last season with Montreal is a bit more than is safe to hope for going forward. Fortunately, the Canadiens didn’t sign him to a four-year, $14 million contract back in July 2021 because of his work with the puck. Savard’s value lies at his own end of the ice. He’s defensively responsible as well as a penalty killer. He’s also got size, standing at 6-foot-2, 233-pounds, and he’s happy to employ it. He accumulated 134 hits along with 36 penalty minutes last season and those numbers are par for the course for him. He’ll sacrifice himself too, ranking second on Montreal in blocked shots last season with 127. He’s the type of hard working, gritty defenseman that can inspire his teammates with his tough style of play. He’s also a nice veteran presence for the Canadiens to have as they rebuild. It helps that he saw what it takes to win as a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s 2020-21 Stanley Cup-winning squad. He won’t make headlines, but he’ll play a role with the Canadiens this season.

Joel Edmundson

The 2021-22 campaign was largely a write off for Edmundson. He didn’t even make his season debut until March 12 due to a back injury. The silver lining is that he settled back into his regular role for what was left of the season, averaging 19:35 minutes, including 2:26 shorthanded minutes. Unfortunately, injuries are nothing new for Edmundson. He hadn’t had an extended absence like that before, but the 29-year-old has also never logged 70 games in a single season. To an extent, that goes hand-in-hand with the kind of game he plays. The 6-foot-4, 227-pound blueline is a physical player and he’ll block a good deal of shots too. Even after missing most of the campaign with his back issue, he still recorded 45 blocks and 61 hits in 24 games. He tends also get into trouble with the refs a fair amount, which can be a bit of an issue given that he’s supposed to help kill penalties, but it’s been part of who he is throughout his career and it’s not likely to change now. The trade-off is that he helps protect his teammates and on occasion he’ll even drop his gloves. With some young defensemen such as Jordan Harris and Justin Barron potentially getting full-time roles with the Canadiens next season, Edmundson could end up as a mentor and something of a protector for them on the ice. Just don’t look for Edmundson to get many points along the way. He set a career-high in 2019-20 with 20 points in 68 contests and he shouldn’t be expected to do any better this season.

GOALTENDING

Jake Allen

The Montreal Canadiens fell mightily after their impressive Stanley Cup Final run just a few years ago; with Carey Price forced to miss the majority of the season for personal and injury-related reasons, the Original Six club once again learned just how hard it can be to thrive without a goaltender capable of legitimately carrying them into contention. Unfortunately, that’s the task that Jake Allen will once again find himself saddled with; while he was originally acquired as a perfect tandem 1B to complement Price, he’s now responsible for ensuring that the team is able to hold their own against the myriad of goaltending talent scattered throughout the Atlantic and the Metropolitan Divisions.

The problem with Jake Allen remains his confidence; when he plays well he’s got incredible instincts and talent, but when he plays poorly he second-guesses his own positioning and ends up struggling to make reads and accurately swallow pucks. He thrives when he’s able to settle into a rhythm, which is both a strength and a weakness for the now-32-year old goaltender – because when he can’t quite find his pacing, he’s unable to utilize the agility and flexibility that helps him snag high-danger redirects and rebounded second shots. The good news, though, is that the Canadiens seemed to see their defensive systems settle into a better flow under head coach Martin St. Louis, who was appointed late in the 2021-22 season and will be at the helm from day one this year.

Projected starts: 55-60

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Mason Marchment, Alex Tuch, Jared McCann, Valeri Nichushkin, Michael Bunting, and more players with increasing fantasy value.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 04 Feb 2022 18:59:06 +0000

Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, the Florida Panthers are a rising tide that lifts all ships, including Mason Marchment. Alex Tuch, Jared McCann, Valeri Nichushkin, Michael Bunting, and more players with increasing fantasy value.

TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 19: Florida Panthers left wing Mason Marchment (17) skates in the third period of the NHL game between the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning on October 19, 2021 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Florida Panthers left winger Mason Marchment exploded into the fantasy consciousness this week with a six-point game at Columbus, lifting him to 23 points (8 G, 15 A) in 22 games this season. For added value, Marchment also has 51 hits in those 22 games, and has a good thing going with rookie center Anton Lundell and right winger Sam Reinhart. While there is reason to be optimistic about Marchment as a legitimate contributor in fantasy, note that his on-ice shooting percentage of 14.7% is very high and not likely to sustain at that level. Given his physical contributions, though, Marchment still has fantasy appeal even if he isn’t likely to continue scoring at a point-per-game pace.

#2 Aside from Marchment, forwards that are likely to see some regression in their numbers based on inflated 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentages: Ryan Hartman (14.4%), Kirill Kaprizov (13.7%), Mark Stone (13.6%), Mats Zuccarello (13.4%), Rem Pitlick (13.3%), Max Pacioretty (13.2%), Anton Lundell (13.1%), Nazem Kadri (13.0%), and Tom Wilson (12.9%). Keep your eyes on the top lines in Minnesota and Vegas because, as skilled as they are, it can be difficult to maintain such lofty percentages.

#3 On the other hand, some skilled forwards that could be looking at better results because, so far, they have had a low on-ice shooting percentage: Brock Boeser (4.4%), Kevin Hayes (4.8%), Filip Zadina (4.8%), James van Riemsdyk (5.1%), Kyle Palmieri (5.2%), Sean Monahan (5.3%), Nils Hoglander (5.4%), Mike Hoffman (5.4%), William Karlsson (5.5%), and Elias Pettersson (5.5%). Players with a low on-ice shooting percentage tend to make good trade targets because the perception of their value is diminished.

#4 Since the NHL schedule pause in December, the Florida Panthers have been a high-octane attack, averaging 4.88 goals/60 in all situations in 18 games played during that span. The team with the second-highest goal-scoring rate in that time is the Toronto Maple Leafs (4.35 G/60), more than a half-goal per 60 minutes behind the Panthers. The Minnesota Wild (4.27), Carolina Hurricanes (3.87), and Pittsburgh Penguins (3.81) round out the top five teams.

#5 A big piece of the trade that sent Jack Eichel to the Vegas Golden Knights, Alex Tuch has really responded to his increased role with the Buffalo Sabres. A native of Syracuse, New York, Tuch has produced 13 points (5 G, 8 A) along with 37 shots on goal while averaging 19:46 time on ice in 13 games for the Sabres. He has combined with Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner to give the Sabres a legitimately dangerous top line.

SEATTLE, WA - JANUARY 25: Seattle Kraken left wing Jared McCann (16) handles the puck during an NHL game between the Nashville Predators and the Seattle Kraken on January 25, 2022 at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Jeff Halstead/Icon Sportswire)

#6 One of the best selections by the Seattle Kraken in the expansion draft, Jared McCann has tied a career high with 19 goals in just 41 games. He is scoring on 18.1% of his shots, which is a tad high, but McCann could also play more than the 16:04 average time on ice per game he has been getting with Seattle.

#7 After signing a big free agent deal in Calgary in the summer, Blake Coleman struggled to produce offensively, but he was starting to round into form heading into the All-Star break, putting up nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 30 shots on goal in his last 10 games. From the time he arrived in the league, Coleman has increased his fantasy value with his hit totals and 89 hits in 41 games this season gives him some of that added appeal now that his scoring numbers have picked up.

#8 In the past couple of seasons, Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin has established that he is an elite checking winger, with outstanding impact during 5-on-5 play, but he has not been a big scorer. That has changed somewhat this season. He has missed time, playing in just 28 games, but Nichushkin has 23 points (12 G, 11 A) and 75 shots on goal while playing a career high 18:14 per game. That shot rate is climbing, too – 52 in his past 16 games works out to 3.25 per game.

#9 The Toronto Maple Leafs have tried other combinations of forwards, but it turns out that their best option to skate on the left side with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the top line is Michael Bunting, the 26-year-old who is still a rookie. In his past 23 games, Bunting has chipped in 21 points (9 G, 12 A) and 20 of those points have at even strength. His ability to do things that his linemates can’t makes him a strong fit in that spot.

#10 When Toronto Maple Leafs winger Ilya Mikheyev asked for a trade in the offseason, the Maple Leafs declined to take him up on that request and had high hopes for him for the 2021-2022 season, but that was stalled when he suffered a broken thumb in the preseason. Mikheyev played one game in mid-December before the schedule pause but in the dozen games since, he has 10 points (7 G, 3 A) and 37 shots on goal. For a player who was a notoriously poor finisher in his previous two seasons, Mikheyev is starting to find the net and raising the price of his value on the upcoming free agent market.

#11 The Vegas Golden Knights just signed defenseman Brayden McNabb to a three-year contract extension and while McNabb is not a typical fantasy darling because he does not register a lot of points – he has finished with more than 16 points once in his career – McNabb does have some deep league appeal because he is a consistent source of hits and blocked shots. McNabb has averaged a combined 4.72 hits plus blocked shots per game this season, which ranks 10^th among defensemen that have appeared in at least 20 games.

#12 The nine defensemen ahead of McNabb in combined hits plus blocked shots per game: Radko Gudas (5.89), Alexander Romanov (5.32), Luke Schenn (5.30), Rasmus Ristolainen (5.17), Jacob Trouba (5.11), Connor Murphy (4.93), Darnell Nurse (4.91), Mario Ferraro (4.90), and Erik Cernak (4.76).

#13 After scoring 65 points in 2017-2018, Arizona Coyotes winger Clayton Keller has stumbled along for the past three seasons, well behind that rate of production. It seems that he might have turned the corner this season, even as the Coyotes languish near the bottom of the league. In his past 29 games, Keller has 32 points (14 G, 18 A) and 90 shots on goal.

#14 Veteran Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner scored 30 goals during the 2015-2016 season but has not scored more than 18 goals in any other season. This season, Jenner is up to 18 goals after producing 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 35 shots on goal in the last 11 games before the All-Star break. He is not recording hits at the same level as he did earlier in his career, when he had four 200-hit seasons, but Jenner’s improved goal-scoring and shot rate still makes him a valuable contributor.

#15 The Los Angeles Kings have tried to focus on improving their team speed and it is starting to pay off. Winger Viktor Arvidsson, who they acquired from Nashville in the offseason, has really picked up his play in 2022. In his past 15 games, Arvidsson has delivered 15 points (7 G, 8 A) along with 59 shots on goal. Alex Iafallo is another speedy winger who has had an impact on the Kings’ improving playoff fortunes. Averaging a career-high 2.87 shots on goal per game, Iafallo has 28 points (14 G, 14 A) in 45 games, which puts him well within striking distance of his career high of 17 goals, set in 2019-2020.

#16 As the New York Islanders are the only team in the league that has yet to play 40 games, they do offer more potential value for the rest of the NHL season. One player to consider for the Isles is center Brock Nelson, who has been heating up with nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 20 shots on goal in the past nine games. The five-time 20-goal scorer has 14 goals in 30 games this season.

#17 A left winger that looked like good value on the free agent market last summer (as compared to big-ticket signing Zach Hyman, for example), Brandon Saad has been quietly effective with the St. Louis Blues. Saad has nine points (3 G, 6 A) in his past eight games and is up to 25 points (15 G, 10 A) in 40 games.

#18 There have been lots of rumors about the Arizona Coyotes dealing defenseman Jakob Chychrun, who has not been terribly productive this season, managing 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in 34 games. This after finishing with a career high 18 goals and 41 points in 56 games last season. Presumably, the opportunity to play for a more competitive team would work in Chychrun’s favor but it is noteworthy that Shayne Gostisbehere has been putting up numbers for the Coyotes this season, accumulating 28 points (8 G, 20 A) in 45 games, which is tied for 16^th among defensemen.

#19 Another defenseman who has term left on his contract but could be available on the trade market is Montreal Canadiens veteran Jeff Petry, who may have had the best season of his career in 2020-2021, producing 42 points (12 G, 30 A) in 55 games. This season has been an entirely different story for Petry, as he shockingly has just six points (1 G, 5 A) in 37 games. As a player that tends to contribute to peripheral fantasy hockey categories like hits and blocked shots, too, Petry had plenty of fantasy value when he was scoring but right now, not so much.

#20 The hunt for goaltending at this stage of the season does not offer a lot of options. I wrote last week about Ville Husso, Pavel Francouz, and Matt Murray, and their varying degrees of fantasy value, but also consider Los Angeles Kings goaltender Cal Petersen, who has not seized the starting job in the way that might have been expected, in part because Jonathan Quick played so well early in the season. However, Quick has slumped lately, posting a .873 save percentage in 10 games since the schedule pause, and Petersen is 6-1 with a .914 save percentage in his past seven appearances.

#21 While Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Petr Mrazek is not exactly pushing for the starting job, he will have an opportunity to play more as starter Jack Campbell has lost some measure of his early season excellence. Mrazek does have a .921 save percentage in four games since returning from the schedule pause while Campbell has a .891 save percentage in nine games since returning from the December schedule pause.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Oilers power play in a league of its own – Sillinger, Terry, Mangiapane, Getzlaf and more

Scott Cullen — Thu, 04 Nov 2021 14:51:31 +0000

Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, the Oilers power play is in a league of its own, Cole Sillinger, Troy Terry, Andrew Mangiapane, and Ryan Getzlaf are among the players off to encouraging starts to the season.

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 18: Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) in action in the third period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Winnipeg Jets on March 18, 2021 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The Edmonton Oilers power play is wrecking the league. This is not new, as the Oilers have the most productive 5-on-4 results across the past three seasons, scoring 9.45 goals per 60 minutes. This season they are scoring 19.03 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-4 play. The St. Louis Blues (16.62) are the only other team scoring more than 12 goals per 60 during 5-on-4 play. This is unsustainably ridiculous but when it has already been established as the league’s best power play, they are probably going to continue to put up great results.

#2 Among those to play at least 10 minutes during 5-on-4 play this season (it’s early!), Connor McDavid leads the way with 16.68 points/60. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13.39) is seventh. Zach Hyman (12.54) is ninth. Leon Draisaitl is all the way down at 20^th (10.98). Even if these early results are unsustainably great, the prolific nature of the Edmonton power play does bode well for players like Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman.

#3 Hyman, in particular, is reaping early rewards from his role on the Oilers power play. He has 6.70 individual expected goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-4 play, which is far and away the best rate in the league. The rest of the top five includes: Matthew Tkachuk (3.87), Leon Draisaitl (3.77), Reilly Smith (3.77), and Josh Norris (3.76). Connor McDavid is sixth (3.63).

#4 The job just keeps getting more challenging in Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby and Brian Dumoulin have landed in Covid-19 protocol after Crosby had played just one game following offseason wrist surgery. A player to watch in Pittsburgh could be rookie Drew O’Connor, who has five points (3 G, 2 A) in seven games but ranks fourth in points/60 (4.30) and 19^th in shots/60 (12.05). That is a super small sample for a player who does not have an illustrious track record as a scorer, but O’Connor did produce 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 20 AHL games last season during his first pro campaign, so he may have at least a little offensive upside.

#5 Columbus Blue Jackets rookie centre Cole Sillinger had a goal and an assist in his first eight NHL games then put up two goals and an assist in Wednesday’s overtime win against Colorado. One reason to be intrigued by Sillinger’s ability to generate offense? Among the 212 forwards that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, Sillinger ranks fifth with 13.95 shots/60, behind Blake Coleman (16.76), Vladimir Tarasenko (14.76), Jeff Skinner (14.35), and Logan O’Connor (14.31).

#6 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry failed to record a point in Anaheim’s first game of the season. In the nine games since then, Terry has 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 21 shots on goal, recording a point in each of those nine games. He has already tied his career high with seven goals, the same total he had last season in 48 games. Terry has also played more than 21 minutes in two of the past three games, so his production is getting rewarded.

VANCOUVER, BC - MAY 18: Calgary Flames left wing Andrew Mangiapane (88) skates with the puck during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on May 18, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#7 With seven goals in nine games this season, Calgary Flames winger Andrew Mangiapane has scored 25 goals in 65 games since the start of last season, shooting a lofty 22.5%. That shooting percentage is not likely to last but since the start of last season there have been 323 forwards to play at least 500 5-on-5 minutes. From that group, Mangiapane ranks fifth with 1.46 goals/60, behind Auston Matthews (1.83), Jakub Vrana (1.68), Daniel Sprong (1.56), and Brandon Saad (1.46).

#8 Speaking of players with unsustainably high shooting percentages, Tampa Bay’s Alex Killorn has eight points (5 G, 3 A) during a five-game point streak. He now has seven goals on 18 shots this season, good for a 38.9% shooting percentage. Killorn led the league in shooting percentage in 2019-2020 when he scored on 20.0% of his shots but he has been under 12.5% in every other season of his career. This isn’t to suggest dropping Killorn, as he has established a consistent level of production and has a significant role on the Lightning power play, but the goal-scoring pace should slow down.

#9 Ryan Getzlaf became the Anaheim Ducks all-time leading scorer this week, surpassing Teemu Selanne, and the 36-year-old centre has been very productive, with 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 11 games but that does not cover all of Getzlaf’s fantasy appeal. He also has 21 hits, 11 blocked shots and, often a reluctant shooter, he has 30 shots on goal. His 2.73 shots per game would rank as the second highest per-game shot rate of his career. It’s early, but it looks like a pretty good bounce-back season after Getzlaf managed 17 points (5 G, 12 A) in 48 games last season.

#10 Minnesota Wild left winger Kirill Kaprizov was in a goal-scoring slump to start the season but scored in overtime against Ottawa Tuesday to get on the board. He has eight points (1 G, 7 A) and 32 shots on goal in nine games and that shot rate was always the reason to expect Kaprizov to snap out of it. Last season started differently for him. Kaprizov had 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in his first 18 games but only had 32 shots. His shot rate picked up as the season progressed and now, he is good for three-plus per game on average.

#11 Minnesota’s Kevin Fiala is also off to a relatively mediocre start, with five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games but he has 27 shots on goal, and he has only had more than three shots on goal per game once in his career – that was last season. As long as the shots are there, it’s fair to expect the goals and points to follow.

#12 For those seeking peripheral statistical value, beyond goals and assists, there are four players with at least two shots on goal and four hits per game: Darnell Nurse, Brady Tkachuk, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Radko Gudas. Nurse and Tkachuk would have been relatively early picks because they are productive enough offensively, too. Jaskin has not found the scoresheet yet for Arizona but is not shy about playing the body, while Gudas has consistently generated shots and hits for much of his career.

#13 A group of defensemen offering additional peripheral stats value, those averaging at least two shots on goal, two hits and two blocked shots per game: Esa Lindell, Jacob Trouba, Zach Whitecloud, and Matt Dumba. Whitecloud is on IR and Dumba is rostered in 80% of Yahoo leagues, but Trouba (52%) and Lindell (23%) are more readily available to provide sneaky value on the blueline.

#14 Among 212 forwards that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ William Nylander (3.95) and Auston Matthews (3.77) rank first and third in terms of on-ice expected goals. Carolina’s Andrei Svechnikov is second (3.83) and Jordan Staal (3.54) is fourth. St. Louis’ Robert Thomas (3.50), somewhat surprisingly, rounds out the top five. That might suggest that it’s time to buy on the Maple Leafs’ top line because, so far, their production has not been outstanding. But if the chances have been there, the goals will probably be coming soon.

#15 Nylander and Matthews are now playing with Michael Bunting, who is the league leader in individual expected goals during 5-on-5 play (1.41), followed by Dylan Larkin (1.32), Jeff Skinner (1.25), Alex Iafallo (1.23), and Vladimir Tarasenko (1.20). Auston Matthews and Andrei Svechnikov are sixth and seventh, respectively.

#16 Some notable forwards with the lowest on-ice expected goals: Mike Hoffman (1.22), Kevin Labanc (1.29), Dominik Kubalik (1.40), Luke Kunin (1.42), and Nick Suzuki (1.57). It is tough to create sustainable offence with such low rates of expected goals during 5-on-5 play. Given expectations, Suzuki might be the most worrying in that low-rent statistical neighbourhood.

#17 Early in the season, the best goaltenders in terms of actual goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed in all situations are: Frederik Andersen, Sergei Bobrovsky, Igor Shesterkin, Jacob Markstrom, and Elvis Merzlikins. Every one of those goaltenders has had some previous success in the league but Andersen, Bobrovsky, and Markstrom are all coming off mediocre, at best, seasons in 2021. Who can figure out goaltenders from one year to the next?

#18 At the other end of the spectrum, the worst goaltenders in terms of actual goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed in all situations this season are: Carter Hutton, Kevin Lankinen, Marc-Andre Fleury, Darcy Kuemper, and Philipp Grubauer. Fleury won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender last season. Grubauer was a finalist. Kuemper has a .921 save percentage in 147 games since 2017-2018. It is early and small sample goaltending is about as volatile as it gets but goaltending remains a fickle and often unpredictable beast.

#19 Aside from the injured Drew Doughty and Ryan Ellis, the defenceman with the highest points per game this season is Carolina’s Tony DeAngelo, who has 10 points in nine games (1.11 ppg). He is just ahead of Roman Josi (1.10) and Adam Fox (1.10). Kevin Shattenkirk, Kris Letang, Aaron Ekblad, Torey Krug, and Victor Hedman are each at one point per game. Everything is coming up Carolina, it seems.

#20 The Montreal Canadiens sent rookie right winger Cole Caufield to the American Hockey League this week, after he started the season with no goals and one assist in 10 games. Caufield had 22 shots on goal. Last season, when he scored four goals in his first 10 games for the Habs, Caufield had 30 shots on goal, and he had 48 shots on goal in 20 playoff games, so the declining shot rate was one troubling sign. Not all of that would fall on Caufield but if he is not being put in position to generate three shots per game, he is probably not going to deliver the desired results. He will be back, likely after tearing up the AHL for a while.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Hall delivering, Benn and Gurianov Stepping up, Barzal, Tkachuk and Kardi fading down stretch plus more ..

Scott Cullen — Wed, 28 Apr 2021 19:50:54 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, the Boston Bruins got just what they needed with the acquisition of Taylor Hall. Jamie Benn and Denis Gurianov are stepping up for the Stars while Mathew Barzal, Matthew Tkachuk and Nazem Kadri are fading down the stretch.

#1 In one of the more predictable outcomes of the trade deadline, Bruins center David Krejci is thriving with Taylor Hall on his wing, putting up nine points (5 G, 4 A) in nine games since the Bruins acquired the 2017-2018 Hart Trophy winner. Krejci had scored two goals in 35 games before the trade.

BOSTON, MA - APRIL 13: Boston Bruins left wing Taylor Hall (11) takes a shot off the face off during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Buffalo Sabres on April 13, 2021, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

#2 The move has been good for Taylor Hall, too. Sure, he has seven points (4 G, 3 A) in nine games with Boston, but Hall’s underlying numbers have exploded. In his first nine games with Boston, the Bruins are generating shot attempts, shots, and expected goals at least 25% higher than when Hall was on the ice with the Buffalo Sabres. Playing on a dominant Bruins team works in Hall’s favor, too, as he is generating 3.33 shots per game in Boston, compared to 2.38 per game in Buffalo, and this despite Hall’s average time on ice dropping from 18:41 per game in Buffalo to 15:57 per game in Boston.

#3 Dallas Stars forward Jamie Benn has been making a difference down the stretch and it appears as though working in the middle of the ice is bringing out his best. There have been 19 games this season, including each of his past 12 games, in which Benn has taken at least 10 draws and in those 19 games, Benn has produced 18 points (7 G, 11 A). He has 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in the 26 games in which he takes fewer than 10 faceoffs.

#4 Islanders center Mathew Barzal is slumping late in the season. He has no goals and two assists with 11 shots on goal in seven games since the trade deadline and the Islanders have earned one regulation win in those seven games. That’s not great, obviously, but his schedule does get easier. In the past seven games, three were against the Capitals and two against the Bruins. The Islanders’ next six games include a pair against the Rangers, a couple at Buffalo, and two against New Jersey so there should be opportunities for Barzal to snap out of this untimely slump.

#5 As the Calgary Flames try to remain in the hunt for the final playoff spot in the North Division, left winger Matthew Tkachuk has no goals and three assists in the past 10 games. He has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in 22 games since Darryl Sutter took over behind the Flames bench, averaging 16.33 time on ice per game under Sutter after playing 19:35 per game before the coaching change.

#6 There is good news in Calgary, though. Johnny Gaudreau had difficulty getting going when Sutter took over, managing four points and 25 shots on goal in 14 games. More recently, though, Gaudreau has produced 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 15 shots on goal in the past eight games.

#7 While the Buffalo Sabres have endured a miserable season, Sam Reinhart has been a leader for them late in the season. In nine games since the trade deadline, he has produced 10 points (8 G, 2 A) with 30 shots on goal.

#8 As the Dallas Stars try to push for a playoff spot, they have been getting contributions from a bunch of players. Denis Gurianov led the Stars with 20 goals last season but went through a stretch in the middle of this season in which he scored two goals in 33 games. He has emerged from that slump with eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 23 shots on goal in the past eight games.

#9 It was something of a surprise when Mikael Granlund re-signed with the Nashville Predators in the offseason because he had not been very productive in his time there, producing 35 points in 79 games coming into the 2021 season. Granlund had his own midseason slump but has been a valuable contributor to Nashville’s playoff push, scoring 14 points (8 G, 6 A) in his past 19 games.

#10 The St. Louis Blues made veteran winger Mike Hoffman a healthy scratch late last month after he had managed two points (1 G, 1 A) with 17 shots on goal in the previous 10 games. With the Blues getting healthier, they had more forward options and if Hoffman isn’t producing offensively, his value is limited. Since that reset, Hoffman has nine points (6 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal in nine games, despite averaging a modest 13:57 of ice time per game.

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 24: New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes (86) shoots the puck during the first period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New Jersey Devils on April 24, 2021, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

#11 Shots are a foundational aspect when it comes to fantasy hockey value. Both as the source of goals scored but also because those shots count as their own category in most cases. In the past month there are 14 players that are generating at least 3.50 shots per game and there are a bunch of familiar names in that group – Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Alex Ovechkin etc. – but there are some surprises, too. Maybe the biggest surprise in that group is New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes, who is averaging 3.50 shots per game in the past month and his point production has picked up, too. Hughes has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) in the past 12 games, despite playing for a Devils squad that snapped a 10-game winless slide with Tuesday’s win against Philadelphia.

#12 There are 121 defensemen that have played at least 750 all-situations minutes this season. Of the 121, the top five in shots plus blocked shots per 60 minutes are: Alec Martinez (12.60), Alexander Edler (12.16), Jakob Chychrun (11.88), Alex Pietrangelo (11.87), and Dougie Hamilton (11.64).

At the other end of the spectrum: Cam Fowler (5.77), John Marino (5.94), Marc Staal (6.06), Brenden Dillon (6.21), and Nick Leddy (6.31).

Considering that Martinez also ranks 24^th among defensemen with 26 points (7 G, 19 A) in 46 games, he has been shockingly valuable – like Top 10 on defense – for fantasy purposes.

#13 When the Vegas Golden Knights put Chandler Stephenson in the center spot on their top line, between Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, it seemed that he might just be keeping the spot warm for, say, Cody Glass, a high draft pick with the offensive potential to be a No. 1 center. Glass has had a few opportunities in that role but not nearly enough to supplant Stephenson, who has nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 22 shots on goal in the past nine games, giving him 29 points in 42 games this season.

#14 For the first half of the season Jeff Petry was one of the top fantasy defensemen, scoring 27 points (11 G, 16 A) in 30 games but his pace has slowed down, with no goals and six assists in 17 games since. That’s really not a surprise, since Petry’s inflated percentages were unlikely to last all season. He is still among the top ten defensemen overall, but regression has come for the Habs blueliner.

#15 The story is even worse for Montreal’s Shea Weber, who has two points (1 G, 1 A) in his past 13 games, leaving him with 19 points in 47 games, his lowest per-game scoring rate since 2007-2008. Weber is famous for his devastating slapshot but he is not getting as many pucks to the net anymore either. Weber is averaging 2.13 shots per game this season. after three straight seasons with at least 2.85 shots per game, and it is his lowest per-game shot rate since 2006-2007.

#16 Around St. Patrick’s Day is when the Colorado Avalanche really started to hit their stride and the Avs have scored 3.98 goals per 60 minutes in all situations since then. Their top line is scoring a ton and a lot of complementary players have contributed to that prolific stretch. One who has not contributed nearly as much as might be expected is center Nazem Kadri who has four points (1 G, 3 A) in those 19 games, and this is despite Kadri recording 58 shots on goal.

#17 There are 27 forwards that have recorded at least 100 hits this season and none of them have as many points as Carolina Hurricanes center Jordan Staal, who has 37 points (16 G, 21 A). The next highest scoring forwards with at least 100 hits are Andrei Svechnikov (36), Brady Tkachuk (32), Matthew Tkachuk (31), and Chris Kreider (30).

#18 Vegas goaltender Robin Lehner has been the top fantasy goalie over the past month, posting a .941 save percentage on his way to a 7-0-1 record in eight starts. Injuries have cut into Lehner’s season, but he has just one regulation loss in 15 starts all season.

#19 The next most valuable goaltenders in the past month (minimum 5 GP): Boston’s Jeremy Swayman and Tuukka Rask are at two and three, respectively, then Carolina’s Alex Nedeljkovic, Vancouver’s Braden Holtby, and Detroit’s Thomas Greiss. Goaltenders are voodoo.

#20 The least valuable goaltenders in the past month (minimum 5 GP): Columbus’ Joonas Korpisalo, New Jersey’s Mackenzie Blackwood, Toronto’s David Rittich, Detroit’s Jonathan Bernier, and Chicago’s Kevin Lankinen. This end of the spectrum is not as surprising, though Lankinen had a pretty good run when he was first called up to Chicago early in the season.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS 4/1/21 – Ekblad, Hintz, Laine, Gostisbehere, McCann, Hoffman, Robertson and more ..

Scott Cullen — Thu, 01 Apr 2021 14:18:37 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, a look at the Panthers in the wake of Aaron Ekblad’s injury; Roope Hintz, Adam Fox, Shayne Gostisbehere, Patrik Laine, Mike Hoffman, Jason Robertson and more.

#1 The broken leg suffered by Florida Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad is a heavy loss for a playoff team that was getting solid play at 5-on-5, with the lowest shots against rates (45.8 CA/60) of his career, but he was really making a difference on the power play, where he had tied his career-high with six goals and was two points away from his career-high of 13 power play points, set during his rookie season in 2014-2015.

#2 The Panthers power play was one of the rare first units that was still running with two defensemen, Ekblad and Keith Yandle. Now that Patric Hornqvist is also out, after getting crushed by Chicago defenseman Nikita Zadorov, and Aleksander Barkov remains out with a lower-body injury, the Panthers have a revamped power play that still includes Keith Yandle and Jonathan Huberdeau but has roles for Carter Verhaeghe, Frank Vatrano, and Alexander Wennberg. Even Brett Connolly and Owen Tippett saw some time with that first unit.

#3 If there is a player who will get tested in Ekblad’s absence, it may be MacKenzie Weegar, who has had stellar defensive metrics in the past two seasons, most of which he has spent playing alongside Ekblad. Since the start of last season, that pairing has been on the ice for more than 54% of shot attempts, more than 55% of expected goals, and 58% of goals during 5-on-5 play. This while starting more shifts in the defensive zone and more frequently facing the opposition’s top forwards.

#4 Dallas Stars center Roope Hintz has taken a step forward this season though each step forward seems to come with at least a shuffle back while Hintz does tend to miss games with injuries. He has recorded points in nine of his past 10 games, scoring 13 points (7 G, 6 A) while launching 29 shots on goal in that time. Hintz has played 23 of 33 games this season and that is really the only issue to diminish his accomplishments. If he had played more games, his production would be recognized far and wide. Hintz has scored 1.44 goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play this season which ranks 11^th among 380 forwards to play at least 200 5-on-5 minutes.

#5 Lest you think that Hintz is only a dynamo during 5-on-5 play, Hintz is also the points/60 leader during 5-on-4 situations this season, too, with 11.26 points/60. Martin Necas (10.31), Eeli Tolvanen (10.01), Dominik Kubalik (9.93), and Victor Hedman (9.85) are the next most efficient point producers among skaters with more than 50 minutes of 5-on-4 ice time.

#6 New York Rangers defenseman Adam Fox is on fire. He has 15 points (2 G, 13 A) during an eight-game point streak. In that two-week span, since March 17, the Rangers are tied with the Colorado Avalanche as the highest scoring team in the league with 4.50 goals/60 in all situations.

RALEIGH, NC - MARCH 20: Columbus Blue Jackets right wing Patrik Laine (29) with the puck during the 1st period of the Carolina Hurricanes vs Columbus Blue Jackets on March 20th, 2021 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC (Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Icon Sportswire)

#7 In his first 10 games with the Columbus Blue Jackets, Patrik Laine scored six goals and added four assists. 10 points in 10 games is pretty good, right? It is. But Laine also had just 18 shots on goal in those 10 games, a remarkably low shot rate for a player who had established in his first four NHL seasons that he needed to get shots in order to provide value. He has never been a great 5-on-5 player in the NHL, so it has been imperative that he either get shooting opportunities in those situations or on the power play in order to reap the rewards of his tremendous shot. In the 17 games since his decent start in Columbus, Laine has one goal (scored on the power play) and three assists, with 33 shots on goal. There were skeptics in the immediate aftermath of the trade, suggesting that a John Tortorella-Patrik Laine pairing would encounter some rocky waters but this has been even worse than the harshest critics could have predicted.

#8 Alex Ovechkin is noted far and wide as the triggerman on the Washington Capitals power play and he has produced just over 35 shot attempts/60 during 5-on-4 play this season. There are six skaters generating an even higher rate of 5-on-4 shot attempts: David Perron (44.7), Mika Zibanejad (39.4), Nikolaj Ehlers (38.2), Kyle Connor (38.2), Dominik Kubalik (37.5), and Adrian Kempe (35.0).

#9 The defenseman with the highest rate of 5-on-4 shot attempts (minimum 50 minutes) is Dougie Hamilton (30.5), ahead of Shayne Gostisbehere (29.2), Drew Doughty (28.9), Aaron Ekblad (28.7), Cale Makar (28.3), and Shea Weber (28.2).

#10 Gostisbehere cleared waivers this week, probably because he has two more years left on his contract, but in his past 16 games for the Flyers, Gostisbehere has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 46 shots on goal. 167 defensemen played at least 200 total minutes in that time and Gostisbehere had a higher rate of shot attempts and shots per minute than any of them.

#11 In that time, the Flyers also had an all-situations save percentage of .848 with Gostisbehere on the ice. Believe it or not, there were three defensemen who have had worse save percentages in that time (since February 24): Gostisbehere’s Philadelphia teammates Philippe Myers (.824) and Travis Sanheim (.834) as well as Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin (.834).

#12 The forwards with the most even-strength ice time without a secondary assist at evens this season: Anze Kopitar, Andrew Mangiapane, Max Domi, and Evgeni Dadonov. Given the unsustainable nature of secondary assists these players might be due for better in that category, but it also might be too late to salvage the overall production of Domi and Dadonov.

#13 There are four defensemen to play at least 400 even-strength minutes and still not have a secondary assist this season: Jani Hakanpaa, Andy Greene, Matthew Benning, and Shayne Gostisbehere.

#14 There are some notable defensemen that have played more than 500 even-strength minutes and have just one secondary assist, including Erik Karlsson, Rasmus Dahlin, and Shea Weber.

#15 Forwards that have the highest rate of secondary assists during even strength minutes (minimum 400 minutes): Gabriel Landeskog (1.45 per 60), James van Riemsdyk (1.42), Jack Roslovic (1.35), Evgeni Malkin (1.26), and Patrice Bergeron (1.15). While Landeskog and Bergeron quite notably have elite linemates, van Riemsdyk and Roslovic appear to be good candidates for regression.

#16 With Malkin out of the lineup, the Penguins have needed Jared McCann to step up and provide secondary offense and McCann has done just that. Since returning to from injury, McCann has 11 points (6 G, 5 A) and 29 shots on goal in 12 games. He has 3.24 primary points/60 this month, which ranks fifth among skaters to play at least 100 5-on-5 minutes. Mark Stone, Artemi Panarin, Connor McDavid, and Mikko Rantanen are the only players with a higher primary points/60 in March.

#17 Last offseason was a strange one for free agency, and it resulted in some proven scorers taking short-term deals, presumably so that they could potentially hit a healthier free agent market after another productive season. That might have been the plan but that is not how it ultimately has turned out for St. Louis Blues winger Mike Hoffman, who has one goal, one assist, and 17 shots on goal in his past 10 games, which earned him a trip to the press box. Hoffman’s individual rates – shot attempts/60, shots/60, expected goals/60, goals/60, points/60 – are all at career lows.

#18 The Blues have been getting outshot handily with Hoffman on the ice (45.8 CF%) and it is not because of his defensive shortcomings, as might be expected, rather it is that when Hoffman is on the ice the Blues are not generating enough offense. Hoffman has moved around the lineup a lot – eight Blues have played more than 50 5-on-5 minutes with Hoffman – and his most common linemate, Brayden Schenn, had terrible results with him (39.4 CF%). Would the Blues, now healthier up front, move Hoffman before the trade deadline?

#19 Goalies with the best all-situations save percentage in the past month (minimum 5 GP): Casey DeSmith (.969), Juuse Saros (.963), Igor Shesterkin (.941), Thatcher Demko (.937), Philipp Grubauer (.936), Kaapo Kahkonen (.934), Alex Nedeljkovic (.934), Carey Price (.931), Tristan Jarry (.928), and Jaroslav Halak (.925).

TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 13: Dallas Stars Left Wing Jason Robertson (21) controls the puck in the second period during the regular season NHL game between the Dallas Stars and Toronto Maple Leafs on February 13, 2020 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

#20 Stars rookie winger Jason Robertson has forced his way into a bigger role by producing at an elite level. He was eased into the lineup early, playing less than 12 minutes in six of his first 12 games but as Robertson started to get some points, his role expanded and then as other Stars got injured, Robertson has emerged as a crucial part of the team’s offense. He has 16 points (5 G, 11 A) and 47 shots on goal in the past 16 games. While shots were hard to come by when he wasn’t playing so much, Robertson has now recorded at least three shots on goal in each of his past eight games.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Atlantic Division Training Camp News

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 28 Sep 2018 14:04:37 +0000

Boston Bruins

The Bruins have a number of veterans that have been working through injuries during training camp, which has raised some questions about who will be available for the season opener. Fortunately, the news is largely good on that front.

Torey Krug suffered a fractured ankle in Game 4 of Boston’s second round series against Tampa Bay and that injury was still a factor when camp started. However, he got into his first preseason game on Wednesday, so it looks like he’ll be fine for the start of the season. His most likely defensive partner is Brandon Carlo, especially after the decision to trade Adam McQuaid to the Rangers on Sept. 11.

Wednesday’s contest was also Noel Acciari’s (sports hernia) first exhibition game of the year. He said after the game that he felt good so it seems reasonable to believe he’ll also be ready for the season opener.

The jury is still out on forwards Sean Kuraly (lower body) and Patrice Bergeron (back spasms) though. Kuraly and Bergeron have both been skating recently, but not practicing. In the case of Bergeron, he might resume practicing on Friday. If all goes well, he will be in the lineup for the season opener, but if that doesn’t happen then it will likely be David Backes that temporarily takes Bergeron’s place on the top line with Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak.

Buffalo Sabres

The Sabres certainly don’t have a shortage of exciting young players, but one that might get lost in the crowd a bit is Tage Thompson. The Sabres picked the 20-year-old up from St. Louis as part of the Ryan O’Reilly trade and he went into training camp with a real shot of making the team. Nothing has been finalized yet, but so far Thompson has made a strong impression with a goal and three points in three preseason games.

He’s been given looks with a lot of different linemates. On Sept. 17 he was on a line with Alex Nylander and Patrik Berglund before firing five shots on Sept. 22 while playing alongside Jack Eichel and Jeff Skinner. Buffalo didn’t dress many veterans for Wednesday’s contest, but Thompson was paired with Zemgus Girgensons and Casey Mittelstadt.

BUFFALO, NY - March 29: Buffalo Sabres center Casey Mittelstadt (37) skates with the puck in his first NHL game against the Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres on March 29, 2018 at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY. (Jerome Davis/Icon Sportswire)

Speaking of Mittelstadt, this training camp has been something of a mixed bag for him. The hope going into training camp was that he would be the Sabres’ new number two center in the post-Ryan O’Reilly era. That might be where Mittelstadt ends up eventually, but perhaps expectations were a bit too high for the 19-year-old in the short-term. Berglund might get that number two slot instead while Mittelstadt begins the season as the third-line center.

Of course, the player attracting the most interest at the Sabres’ camp is first overall pick Rasmus Dahlin. He’s made some mistakes, but of course he should also be one of the most exciting rookies this season. We’re still waiting to see who his defensive partner will be though. Initially it looked like Jake McCabe would get that job, but he was paired with Casey Nelson instead on Tuesday while McCabe played with his old partner, Zach Bogosian.

Detroit Red Wings

Detroit got some terrible news at the start of training camp when it was revealed that Henrik Zetterberg’s career is over due to a back condition. He was one of the last remaining connections to Detroit’s 2008 Stanley Cup Championship and in that way, his retirement further closes the book on one of the best era’s in the franchise’s long history.

In contrast to those times, the Red Wings have fallen short of the playoffs in back-to-back seasons and while there some long-term hope for the franchise, the 2018-19 edition likely isn’t going to have much success. Filip Zadina is a good example of that as the sixth overall pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft has a lot of promise, but likely hasn’t done enough in training camp to prove that he’s already NHL-ready. Instead, the Red Wings might take advantage of the fact that Zadina is eligible to be sent to AHL Grand Rapids rather than return to QMJHL Halifax. That would allow Zadina to get key minutes against men and still leave the door open to Detroit calling him up as warranted.

Evgeny Svechnikov might be ready though. He was taken with the 19th overall pick in 2015, but he left plenty to be desired in 2017-18 with 23 points in 57 AHL contests. In the long run, he’s probably a top-nine forward, but he’s put himself in the conservation for a fourth line spot with the Red Wings to start the season.

Tyler Bertuzzi is set to not only make the team, but play a prominent role. Based on what’s happened in the preseason thus far, he could very well be part of Detroit’s top line alongside Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha. Bertuzzi scored seven goals and 24 points in 48 games with Detroit last season so he’s already got a good amount of NHL experience on his resume, but 2018-19 is likely to be his first full campaign at the top level.

Right now, the biggest question marks are with Detroit’s defense. Mike Green is fortunately believed to be over the worst of the viral infection that led to him being shut down, but there’s still no timetable for his return. Red Wings GM Ken Holland recently said that the plan was for Green to be tested on a bike and then they’ll go from there. As things are right now, it seems entirely possible that he won’t be ready for the start of the regular season.

Trevor Daley, Danny DeKeyser, and Jonathan Ericsson are all dealing with unspecified injuries and while none of the three defensemen are believed to be seriously hurt, they are all questionable for the season opener. In other words, Detroit is looking at a worst-case scenario where it will enter the season without four of its top six blueliners. That does open the door for some young defensemen to get a chance though, such as Dennis Cholowski, who was taken with the 20th overall pick in 2016, and Filip Hronek, who had 39 points in the AHL last season.

Florida Panthers

The Panthers have already made one noteworthy cut from their training camp roster by sending Owen Tippett back to the OHL. The 19-year-old was the 10th overall pick of the 2017 NHL Entry Draft and got a seven-game trial with the Panthers in 2017-18 and there was some hope that he would force his way onto the team this year. That ended up not happening and the Panthers’ roster situation when it comes to forwards might be partially to blame. They have 13 forwards already signed to one-way contracts, so Tippett would have had to do something fairly special to earn a spot in that environment.

That logjam also contributed to Mark Letestu failing to earn a roster spot after joining the Panthers’ camp on a tryout basis. He has since signed a two-way contract with the Blue Jackets instead.

There might be one forward on a two-way contract that ends up making the opening game roster though: Henrik Borgstrom. He spent the 2017-18 campaign primarily with the University of Denver, but also got four games with Florida under his belt before the summer. He’s made a good impression during training camp and has the versatility to play any forward position, which certainly makes him an easier sell. If the regular season started today, it’s entirely possible that he would be on the third line with Jared McCann and Denis Malgin.

Montreal Canadiens

QUEBEC CITY, QC - SEPTEMBER 20: Montreal Canadiens center Jesperi Kotkaniemi (15) during the Washington Capitals versus the Montreal Canadiens preseason game on September 20, 2018, at Centre Videotron in Quebec City, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

Montreal acquired Max Domi from Arizona in exchange for Alex Galchenyuk back in June, but right now neither player is available. Galchenyuk is dealing with a lower-body injury, but Domi is out because he sucker punched Aaron Ekblad after the Panthers defenseman refused to fight him. Domi was suspended for the Canadiens’ final four preseason games and while that is arguably just a slap on the wrist given that none of those contests count, it does prevent Domi from properly settling in with his new team. That lack of discipline, especially in an exhibition game environment, also doesn’t make for a great first impression. It’s one thing to be gritty, it’s another to make a bad decision because you couldn’t control your temper.

On a more positive note, Jesperi Kotkaniemi has made a good first impression. It was something of a surprise when the Canadiens took him with the third overall pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft and he wasn’t initially expected to be on Montreal’s opening game roster, but he might end up forcing his way on there. In particular, he looked good during Montreal’s 5-3 loss to Toronto on Wednesday in what Canadiens coach Claude Julien described as “probably his biggest and best test since the start of training camp.”

One other player of note during training camp has been Joel Armia. Like Domi, Armia was acquired on the trade market – in this case from the Winnipeg Jets – and while he perhaps doesn’t get the same amount of attention as Domi, Armia might end up playing alongside him. Right now it’s entirely possible that Montreal’s top line will be Armia, Domi, and Jonathan Drouin. It would be an interesting combination as they are three players that are old enough and have been in the NHL long enough that it feels like a stretch to call them prospects, but it seems reasonable to say that more is hoped for them than what we’ve seen thus far. All are former first round picks with Armia being taken the latest out of all of them at 16th overall and yet none of them have done better than Drouin’s 53-point campaign in 2016-17. Perhaps if they do remain the same line, they can help each other find another level. That’s probably the kind of luck the Canadiens would need in order for them to surpass their low expectations going into 2018-19.

Ottawa Senators

The Senators naturally quiet a number of upset fans right now and their recent events have arguably made that worse. First they traded Erik Karlsson to San Jose on Sept. 13, ending months of rumors. The fact that he was finally dealt can’t be a shock to anyone and it arguably even makes sense given their status as a rebuilding team, but it’s still a bitter pill for fans to swallow and it’s made worse by the return Ottawa got, which is significant, but perhaps not enough given Karlsson’s superstar status.

One item of note that might upset some is the fact that San Jose agreed to give Ottawa a first round pick in the event that Karlsson ends up playing in the Eastern Conference in 2018-19. That’s likely a responsible to Ottawa’s decision to trade San Jose to Mike Hoffman over the summer, which then turned around and traded Hoffman to Florida at a profit. So Ottawa wants to prevent history from repeating itself, but then the question has to be asked: Why would Ottawa need that kind of clause? If San Jose could theoretically turn around and trade Karlsson to an Eastern Conference team for a better return than what Ottawa was provided, then why didn’t the Senators simply trade Karlsson to an Eastern Conference team? It’s entirely possible that Ottawa simply accept the best offer available, but it also might be that the Senators limited themselves to only talking to Western Conference clubs and for them not to simply take the best return available when the stakes are this high for the franchise’s future is a questionable decision to say the least.

More recently, Ottawa decided to put Zack Smith on waivers in a move that Matt Duchene, who is on the final year of his contract, described as a kick in the pants. Senators GM Pierre Dorion said it was a move to send a message to the dressing room that what happened last year wasn’t acceptable, but of course, that message would likely carry more weight if the Senators’ front office’s trades dating back to the 2018 deadline weren’t so clearly focused on the future at the expense of the 2018-19 campaign. For what it’s worth, Smith did clear waivers and while Ottawa might ultimately trade him, for now he might still be part of their opening game roster.

If there’s a silver lining for the Senators right now, it’s Brady Tkachuk. He made the decision to sign with Ottawa rather than return to Boston University for his sophomore season and it’s looking like he might not only make the team, but play a significant role. He’s been seeing ice time with Mark Stone and the duo could have a solid season if they stick together. Tkachuk only celebrated his 19th birthday on Sept. 16 and we still have to see for certain if he will make the team, but there is potential there for him to be a bright spot in what is otherwise looking like a probable gloomy season for Ottawa.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning fans will definitely want to pay attention to injury reports leading up to the regular season. While Nikita Kucherov (lower body) and Tyler Johnson (upper body) aren’t believed to be seriously hurt, both are questionable for the season opener and obviously they’re two big parts of the Lightning’s monster offense.

Assuming those injuries don’t prove to be a bigger deal than they presently seem, the opportunities they might create are perhaps too short-term to really be of note. The Lightning do have some fourth-line spots open though and Adam Erne might end up taking advantage of that situation. He has scored three preseason goals and reportedly made strides in his conditioning over the summer.

Mathieu Joseph, who added 10-15 pounds over the summer, is also in the mix. He’s coming off an encouraging AHL rookie campaign where he scored 15 goals and 53 points in 70 contests. Of course, we’re likely talking about a fourth line position, so his offensive output would be low, but if Kucherov and/or Johnson aren’t available at the start of the season, then it might be Joseph that gets added short-term responsibilities.

On defense, Erik Cernak has worked himself into the conversation. He was paired with Ryan McDonagh during Tuesday’s preseason contest and he’s impressed the coaching staff. There’s a fair chance he’s done enough to stick with the team.

Toronto Maple Leafs

April 2, 2016: Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Maple Leafs center William Nylander (39) skates with the puck against Detroit Red Wings at Air Canada Centre. (Photo by Dan Hamilton/Icon Sportswire)

There’s a lot of optimism about the 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs, but the big question mark right now is William Nylander. At the time of writing he’s still a restricted free agent and it’s possible, if not almost certainty at this point, that he will end up missing the Toronto’s entire preseason schedule. He’s expected to eventually sign with the Maple Leafs and it will probably be to a long-term extension, but whenever a player misses training camp for any reason, you have to wonder if it will have an impact on his readiness for the regular season. Even assuming he signed in the period between when this was written and you are reading it, there would still be concerns about him struggling out of the gate in 2018-19 after missing so much prep time.

Fortunately the Maple Leafs have plenty more offense anyways. Obviously, the Maple Leafs added John Tavares over the summer giving them a second superstar in addition to Auston Matthews, but Mitch Marner is another gem of a player and has looked good in the preseason. Not that Marner being good is a revelation – he has 130 points in 159 games after all – but there might be another level there, especially if plan to have him play regularly with Tavares works as well as hoped.

It also helps that Tyler Ennis has done well in training camp. In a sense he’s kept Nylander’s spot warm by playing alongside Matthews and seeing some time on the second power-play unit. Of course, Ennis will relinquish that role to Nylander once the latter signs, but it’s encouraging to see Ennis step up after enduring two rough campaigns that resulted in him recording just 35 points in 124 contests. It will be interesting to see how things shake out from here. Under ideal circumstances for the Leafs, Ennis might even have trouble cracking into their top-nine, but teams don’t often get to dress their theoretical best and in the event of injuries during the season, Ennis might be the first choice to get added responsibilities.

At Luongo Last – Florida Panthers 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 18:33:00 +0000

REVIEW/STATE OF PLAY - The shake up following the painful 2016-17 season that saw them fall from first in their division to 23^rd in the league seem to have them back on the right path again. In his first season as coach Bob Boughner brought the Panthers achingly close to the playoffs needing to win their final three games, which they did only to fall short. The pain passed quickly to optimism based on the way the team finished the season. They tied for best in the NHL with Nashville down the stretch going 25-8-2 over the last 35 games. They were fourth in goals in that time period and it would have been interesting to see what kind of damage they might have done in the playoffs.

ADDING AROUND THE EDGES - They return with the same lineup largely intact with a couple of key additions from GM Dale Tallon. The biggest return was landing controversial Mike Hoffman for draft picks only, the highest a second rounder. Nothing controversial about his play, but his time in Ottawa ended badly with a personal situation involving star Erik Karlsson. He brings game breaking skills and completes an enviable top two lines.

Evgeni Dadonov

He also added a veteran defenseman out of the KHL after having success with Evgeni Dadonov in 28-year-old Bogdan Kiselevich to a one-year contract. He is meant to solidify the top six as a solid two-way defenseman who was a KHL all-star last season. He will not light up the scoreboard but could be an astute addition to a defence anchored by Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle and Michael Matheson. The Panthers allowed the third most shots per game (34.6) last season and led the league in giveaways (1076) and need to tighten up defensively if the playoffs are in store. Otherwise this team returns with a relatively youthful squad with core Aleksandr Barkov (22), Jonathan Huberdeau (25), Vincent Trochek (25), and Nick Bjugstad (26). Evgeny Dadonov (29) scored 65 points in 74 games in his return to the NHL and Hoffman (28) complete a deadly top six.

STRENGTH DOWN THE MIDDLE -The emergence of Aleksandr Barkov as one of the premier centerman in the league. He is top five in terms of two-way play, but last years production hinted at great things to come scoring at a point a game pace. He averaged 22:04 in ice time, second among all NHL forwards, and was fifth in the league in takeaways (82). Since they started recording shootout stats in 2005-06 he ranks second in conversion rate with 54.3%. A more dangerous top six and revitalized power play could place him among the scoring leaders.

Right behind him is the unheralded Vincent Trochek who exploded for more than 30 goals and 70 points while also playing a very strong two-way game, and one of the better face-off men in the league along with Barkov. Barkov was fifth in the league in faceoff wins (908), while Trochek was seventh (853) given them a one-two punch at the dot that few in the league can compare with. Barkov stepped it up in the defensive zone when it counts with a win rate of 56.2% illustrating his importance.

A HEALTHY LINE-UP - A cautionary note is that Florida suffered very few injuries this season with its core intact. It is a young squad so may be able to repeat, but Huberdeau, Barkov and Bjugstad have had injury histories but delivered great seasons last year. Their defense also missed little time, unusual for any NHL squad, but in their favour Keith Yandle is the NHL current Ironman for games missed ranking seventh all-time with 715 consecutive games played. The other key pieces are future Norris contender Aaron Ekblad at 22-years-old and Michael Matheson (24-years-old). They are both signed for the long term at $7.5 million

AAV for seven years for Ekblad and Matheson for $4.875 million AAV for eight years – for a largely defensive defenseman he may be overpaid but speaks to the organizations belief he is someone they can build around. Yandle is signed for the next five years at $6.35 million AAV but given his health history the term may not be an issue. A healthy season from Roberto Luongo at 39-years-old is not likely in the cards but he and James Reimer share the crease effectively and he was performing at an elite level when healthy.

OUTLOOK - The Florida Panthers have only made it to the playoffs five times in their 25-year history, and only twice in the 17 seasons. If Barkov has a dominant season and they can get off to a good start they will be in the race with an improved offense and a core coming into its prime.

Fantasy Hockey Waiver Wire

McKeen's Hockey — Sat, 15 Nov 2014 21:51:45 +0000

It is reality check time. It is no longer early in the season as we approach the quarter point.

If your fantasy team is sucking due to a slow start I got bad news for you, your team just sucks.

The good news is there is still time to do something about it before you go into full on Connor McDavid/Jack Eichel mode. Trade for some sleeper value players and cut bait on those slow starters or injured players.

This week’s Waiver Wire article will help identify who to cut, and who to add.

Cut Bait Candidates.

Tyler Myers, Buffalo

After 18 games, the former Calder Trophy winner has just two points, no goals and is a minus -9. Since winning the Calder, Myers has been in decline and the team is historically bad right now. The risk in dumping Myers is if he is traded to a team like Detroit and suddenly catches fire. Given his contract, it would be difficult for him to be traded during the season and while he may hold some keeper value, if you can move him and find a more reliable option, do so.

Corey Conacher, New York Islanders

Conacher seemed like found money at the start of the season, playing on the top line with John Tavares. Since his early start he has cooled off considerably and now has a total of three points in 13 games. With Conacher being a healthy scratch now it is time to say good bye.

Cody Hodgson, Buffalo

Another Sabre makes this list, and while the whole team could be named Hodgson stands out among the forwards. With a cap hit of $4.25 million you need more than two points and a minus -10 in 18 games to be considered a fantasy option. Unless you need the cap hit to maintain a legal roster as you tank this season, Hodgson offers no value.

Steve Ott, St. Louis

Ott has bounced around on several lines in St. Louis this season but has failed to find any offense. With just two assists in 16 games and no signs of improving it is time to bail on Ott.

Ales Hemsky, Dallas

There was a lot of hype surrounding Hemsky leading into the season as he and Jason Spezza who were dynamite together in Ottawa were both acquired by Dallas in the off-season. Since then, Hemsky has been on a milk carton scoring a pitiful one assist and no goals in 16 games while posting a minus -7 with a $4 million cap hit. Hemsky is going to be a healthy scratch and really has no business being on your fantasy roster.

Players to add

Mike Hoffman, Ottawa 29% Fantrax Owned

Hoffman has scored well in lower levels and now has seven goals in 13 games for the Sens. While his goal total is impressive he only has one assist, but Hoffman seems to have found a full time NHL job on the “kid line” with Curtis Lazar and Michael Stone. While Hoffman was mentioned in a previous waiver wire post, he bears mention again since his value is high and he is widely available.

Peter Holland, Toronto 17% Owned

Holland might be looking at full time duty with the Leafs on a line with Mike Santorelli and Leo Komarov. The trio is seeing a regular shift suggesting they have the Coaches confidence. The line is reliable defensively, provides lots of energy and now Holland has eight points in 17 games. The Leafs may have given up too soon with Joe Colborne but are about to reap the rewards of being patient with Holland. Don’t sleep on this player if he is available in your league.

Ryan Garbutt 29% owned, Antoine Roussel 57% owned - Dallas

The duo of Roussel and Garbutt are a highly effective pair. While they have much higher value in leagues with greasy stat categories like hits, PIM’s and blocked shots, they even have good value in point’s only leagues that are deep enough. The best part about owning them is watching them play. They pass the eye test as they are impossible to not notice on the ice. They are a factor in almost every game and can be a factor on your fantasy roster as well.

Jimmy Hayes, Florida 14% Owned

Jimmy Hayes has been hot of late in Florida scoring three goals and three assists in his last six games and seeing an average of 13 minutes a game of ice time. While Florida is struggling for offense with players like Alex Barkov, and Jonathan Huberdeau not producing, Hayes has been carrying the mail and delivering fantasy stats.

Trevor van Riemsdyk, Chicago 10% Owned

TVR was a surprise player to make the roster, and while his offense has not arrived yet I assure you it is coming. He has won the confidence of management and Coaches and with the trade of Nick Leddy there is opportunity for TVR to see some power play minutes.

Fantasy Hockey Waiver and Future Watch

Peter Harling — Thu, 20 Mar 2014 13:10:13 +0000

It is the home stretch for the hockey season. As NHL teams scratch and claw to punch their ticket to the post season, fantasy owners are doing the same.

Most leagues are in a trade freeze period, but some still offer waivers and free agents. For those who do not or for owners who are looking to the future here are some fantasy hockey sleeper options which may be available in your league.

Jamie McGinn – Colorado Avalanche, LW 35% Fantrax Owned

McGinn is lining up on a regular basis with Matt Duchene and Ryan O’Reilly. In 68 games he has 32 points and 128 hits. While he is not as skilled as his line mates, he is used to playing with elite centres since his junior days with the Ottawa 67’s where he played with Logan Couture.

Zemgus Girgensons – Buffalo Sabres, C 29% Fantrax Owned

The man with the best name in hockey had a breakout performance at the Sochi Olympics for Latvia. Since the trade deadline purge, he has established himself as one of the team’s premier players along with Cody Hodgson and Tyler Myers. He is currently on the IR with a lower body injury so not a great option this season, but for keeper leagues he has tremendous long term upside, particularly in leagues that have peripheral stat categories such as hits, and faceoff wins.

Anders Lee – New York Islanders, LW 29% Owned

Lee has been turning some heads since joining the Islanders in late February after being called up from Bridgeport of the AHL. In ten games he has had three two point games and has a total of ten points. He is 6’3” and 227 pounds making him a big scoring threat on a line with fellow rookie Ryan Strome. His size and skill make him a keeper in deep dynasty leagues.

Nick Holden – Colorado Avalanche, D 21% Owned

Holden has made vast improvements this season under Coach Patrick Roy and has shown steady improvements. He was not an option at the start of the season and a virtual unknown. He has been a healthy scratch at times but seems to have secured a full time job with his partner Tyson Barrie and even sees time on the powerplay where he has not looked out of place. He has played 40 games and has produced 18 points and is a respectable plus seven.

Ryan Garbutt – Dallas Stars, RW 21% Owned

Garbutt is not the only Star to enjoy a breakout season, line mates Cody Eakin and Antoine Roussel have formed a formidable trio. Garbutt has played 61 games in his first full season and has 24 points with 119 hits for leagues with peripheral stats. The loss of Peverley on the right wing gives Garbutt an opportunity for more ice time behind Valeri Nichushkin and Alex Chiasson to see more ice time.

Quinton Howden – Florida Panthers, LW 15% Owned

Howden had a brief and unspectacular 18 game audition last season. After playing in the AHL this season, he has been recalled and has four points in four games, including three goals. In his late season audition he has not looked out of place and is playing on a line with Jimmy Hayes and Brandon Pirri who could also be on this list. All three have size, two-way acumen and will either be bottom six energy players, or second line fantasy contributors. All three are well worth keeper consideration in dynasty leagues

Mike Hoffman – Ottawa Senators, LW 9% Owned

Hoffman has shown signs of his prolific scoring ability in his 12 games this season with the Sens. In his career in the QMJHL he scored 227 points in 180 games and scored another 102 points in the AHL. He is small, but has good speed, a nose for the goal and above average skills. The Sens have no chance of making the playoffs anymore, but players like Hoffman are playing for their career so expect him to have a strong finish.