Mikhail Sergachev – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – UTAH MAMMOTH – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 19:43:53 +0000

SALT LAKE CITY, UT - JANUARY 11: Utah Hockey Club Defensemen Mikhail Sergachev (98) as seen during an NHL game between The New York Islanders and The Utah Hockey Club on January 11, 2025 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT. (Photo by Aaron Baker/Icon Sportswire)

In the franchise’s first season in Utah, after moving the roster (if not the team, officially) from Arizona, Utah finished with 89 points (38-31-13), missing the playoffs, but there were some encouraging signs. The Utah Hockey Club had the underlying numbers of a contender, ranking sixth in Corsi percentage (53.5) and fifth in expected goals percentage (53.9). They ranked 13th with 8.06 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play, and 17th with 7.47 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play. Unfortunately, they did not have the goaltending to reach the postseason. Karel Vejmelka appeared in 58 games, and played well, but Connor Ingram struggled before re-entering the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, and Utah didn’t have any great options otherwise, leading to Vejmelka handling a heavier-than-expected workload.

What’s Changed?

Utah got busy in the offseason, naming the team the Mammoth, and taking a big swing in the trade market, sending defenceman Michael Kesselring and right winger Josh Doan to the Buffalo Sabres for winger J.J. Peterka, who adds an up-and-coming scorer to the Mammoth roster. Utah signed free agent right winger Brandon Tanev as well as Stanley Cup champion defenceman Nate Schmidt. They also inked goaltender Vitek Vanecek, who provides insurance behind Vejmelka if Ingram is unable to return to action. Winger Matias Maccelli was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs and veteran centre Nick Bjugstad signed with the St. Louis Blues as a free agent. The move for Peterka was an indication that the Mammoth are not going to be shy about doing what it takes to make the team better.

What would success look like?

A playoff berth would have to count as success, since the previous iteration of the franchise, the Arizona Coyotes, reached the playoffs just once in their last 12 seasons in the desert. There is a quality core of forward talent that can take this team to the postseason, but the questions will land on defence and in goal, where depth could be an issue. It doesn’t appear as though the Coyotes are ready to be real contenders, but earning a playoff spot in that challenging Central Division would be a successful season and it’s not some ridiculous pipedream to believe that they can get there.

What could go wrong?

Last season could have gone much worse for Utah if Vejmelka had not played so well so, like most teams, the Mammoth can ill afford to have subpar goaltending. They do have a few stars that are probably harder to replace, like defenceman Mikhail Sergachev is hugely important and with the moderate level of blueline talent behind him, an injury to their top defenceman could be devastating. Utah’s improved depth could help them overcome an injury or two up front, but this team is still working on relatively thin margins, so a few bad bounces, unfortunate injuries, or subpar goaltending could be enough to keep them out of the playoffs yet again.

Top Breakout Candidate

Third-year centre Logan Cooley has to be the pick here, even after a relatively high on-ice shooting percentage last season, because he is poised to be the No. 1 centre for Utah, which would mean playing with left winger Clayton Keller, who just put up 90 points (30 G, 60 A) last season, so that kind of opportunity raises the ceiling for Cooley who, in his own right, is a dynamic offensive talent. If there is chemistry with Keller, Cooley may just continue his upward scoring trend.

FORWARDS

Clayton Keller

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	34	56	90	1.13

A talented playmaking winger, Keller put up a career-high 90 points (30 G, 60 A), continuing to provide offense at an elite level. In the past three seasons, he has 252 points (100 G, 152 A) in 241 games, ranking 16th in the league in that time. Keller is on the smaller side and plays according to his strengths. He only had 11 hits last season, his lowest total since his rookie season in 2017-2018, but he thrives in open space, whether it’s in transition or on the power play, where he can set up on the half wall and direct the play from there, either as a setup man or launching one-timers. His 37 power play points last season was tied for third, behind only Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon. Keller uses his quickness to create space from which he generates offensive opportunities, with the element of surprise working in his favour. Keller is a highly skilled player whose puckhandling makes him a challenge for defenders and goaltenders alike when left in a one-on-one situation. With Keller established as a legitimate star player for the newly named Mammoth, now is the time for the team to build a quality supporting cast around him, so that he can continue to deliver on the offensive end. While Keller is not necessarily noted for his defensive acumen, the puck was moving the right way when he was on the ice in 2024-2025; last season he had a 54 percent Corsi with 53.4 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play. If the supporting cast can continue to get better, then Keller should be a prime offensive threat in 2025-2026. It would be fair to expect 30-35 goals and 85-90 points, with a chance to challenge 100 points if he has good fortune in terms of percentages.

Logan Cooley

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	29	47	76	0.93

Drafted third overall in 2022, Cooley took a big step forward in his second NHL season, jumping from 44 points (20 G, 24 A) in 82 games in 2023-2024 to 65 points (25 G, 40 A) in 75 games last season. The name of the game for Cooley is speed, as he uses his acceleration to separate from defenders and create dangerous opportunities off the rush. He plays with an offensively aggressive mindset, so he’s not afraid to go to the net when the opportunity presents itself and seeing what he has accomplished through his first two seasons offers a tantalizing glimpse into his potential. At the same time, there is still room for improvement. While Cooley had a 50.4 percent Corsi in his sophomore season, up by three percent over his rookie campaign, his relative numbers were down 2.2 percent from the previous season. Some of that may be that Utah had more all-around talent so other lines also pushed play, but if he is going to be the star that he appears he can, he should not be trailing others when it comes to controlling play. Cooley remains a work in progress in the faceoff circle, but did improve, going from a winning percentage of 38.0 percent as a rookie to 44.7 percent last season. With an expectation that Cooley spends most of his time skating on a line with Keller, the young center’s production should continue to ascend but projections need to take into account that his on-ice shooting percentage last season was 11.7 percent, a mark that he is highly unlikely to duplicate in 2025-2026. As such, 25 goals and 65-70 points is a fair possibility and while it might not seem like much of an increase, he could use power play production to offset a likely five-on-five regression.

J.J. Peterka

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	30	34	64	0.78

Coming off a season in which he racked up a career-high 68 points (27 G, 41A) for the Buffalo Sabres, Peterka insisted on getting moved and was highly sought after as a 23-year-old winger just coming into his prime. Utah stepped up, sending Josh Doan and Michael Kesselring to the Sabres to complete the deal and then signed Peterka to a new five-year, $38.5 million contract. His arrival in Utah gives the Mammoth another legitimate high-end offensive talent and it could be the type of move that lifts them into postseason contention. Coming from Buffalo, Peterka does not have playoff experience, but he has shown well when playing for Germany at the World Championships. He compiled 21 points (11 G, 10 A) in 18 games during the 2023 and 2024 World Championships and was named the top forward at the 2023 event. While Peterka certainly appears to be on the upswing in his career, there should be some caution exercised because his on-ice shooting percentage last season was 14.2 percent, an unsustainably high number that was the highest in the league among forwards that played at least 200 five-on-five minutes. So, while the tendency might be to lean towards optimism for Peterka, it is going to be difficult to overcome that likely statistical regression. That being the case, it’s fair to expect him to challenge 30 goals and 65 points during the 2025-2026 season.

Dylan Guenther

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	32	35	67	0.85

Drafted ninth overall in 2021, Guenther signed an eight-year, $57.14 million contract prior to last season and while it seemed like a major commitment to a player who had played a total of 78 NHL games to that point, Guenther quickly showed that it could be money well spent as he busted out with 27 goals and 60 points last season, showcasing a lightning-quick release that figures to serve him well for many years. There are so many NHL players who can really shoot the puck with authority that for the rare ones to stand out in that crowd there must be something special there and listening to teammates talk about Guenther’s shot, it appears that he is on a rare tier. The next step is to take more advantage of his shot during five-on-five play because Guenther has scored 51 goals in his NHL career and 25 of them have come via the power play. There is the possibility now that Guenther has enough experience to slide up the depth chart so that he could play first line at even strength, which should help him increase his even-strength scoring, because if it means playing with Clayton Keller and Logan Cooley, those are two very skilled linemates. Expect Guenther to continue his career ascent in 2025-2026. It would be entirely fair to expect him to hit 30 goals and 65 points.

Nick Schmaltz

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	20	38	58	0.71

In the past four seasons, Schmaltz has ranked between 58 and last season’s career-high 63 points, producing at a consistent level, though there is an obvious argument that scoring 58 and 59 points in 63 games, as he did in 2022-2023 is better than 63 points in 82 games, as he did last season. Schmaltz is a talented playmaker who has gradually become more comfortable shooting the puck. He’s still not firing indiscriminately towards the opposing net, but 2.27 shots on goal per game last season got him to 20 goals even with a shooting percentage of 10.9 percent, which was well below his career mark, which was 14.2 percent going into last season. With sound offensive instincts and good puck skills, Schmaltz is a strong complementary player to Clayton Keller, though both of them are quite reluctant to get involved in physical play, as Schmaltz accrued just 14 hits last season. As the Mammoth improve their talent, Schmaltz could slide into a second line role, where he would still have plenty of opportunity to generate offense, but may also be split away from Keller. Knowing how consistently Schmaltz has contributed to the offense in recent seasons, it’s fair to expect something similar, maybe in the range of 20 goals and 55-60 points during the 2025-2026 season.

Barrett Hayton

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	28	46	0.56

It sure seemed like a reach when the Arizona Coyotes drafted Hayton fifth overall in 2018, but they gave him ample opportunity to prove that he could play in a scoring role and what ultimately appears to have happened is that he has shown he can be a capable second-line center. He hit career highs with 20 goals, 26 assists, and 46 points last season while playing a little over 16 minutes per game. That has Hayton fitting into the Utah lineup just behind Logan Cooley on the center depth chart. Hayton has good speed to create opportunities and will go the net to generate chances, but the lack of consistency in his career makes it difficult to expect him playing higher in the lineup if the team has more viable options. At the same time, while his offensive numbers have never really taken off, Hayton has turned into a puck possession monster the past couple of seasons, earning 57.9 percent Corsi and 57.9 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play over the past two seasons. So, on one hand, the point production isn’t quite what is needed from a first-line center, but his two-way play has evolved to the point that he is a strong option as a second-line center and with the Mammoth improving their team depth, that means that Hayton should have quality wingers to play with this season. He should be able to contribute 15-20 goals and 40 points.

Lawson Crouse

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	15	16	31	0.39

After three consecutive seasons with at least 20 goals, Crouse saw his role decrease dramatically as the team moved to Utah last season, with his average ice time per game falling from 16:49 in 2023-2024 to 13:44 per game last season. His production plummeted, too, and he managed a dozen goals and 18 points. The category that Crouse could trade on, in terms of fantasy value, has always been hits. He peaked at 288 hits in 2018-2019 and still registered 193 hits in his diminished role last season. When he was scoring 20 goals and recording 175 hits, there was clear fantasy value to Crouse’s production, but last season’s decline made it far less appealing. With his size and physical presence, Crouse should be valuable in the modern NHL, because he can battle the biggest defenders and handle himself if a fight is needed, but he has also grown as a player to fill a complementary role, capable of finishing chances around the net. His most common linemates last season were Jack McBain, Nick Bjugstad, and Josh Doan. Crouse had quite a bit of success with the since-traded Doan, controlling 62.7 percent of expected goals and outscoring opponents 16-10, but it should be an indication that Crouse is a strong complementary option alongside more skilled playmakers. That should give at least some hope that Crouse can bounce back in 2025-2026, so expect 15-20 goals and 30-plus points, along with 190 hits.

Jack McBain

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	17	29	0.35

A 6-foot-4 center who uses his size to be an effective physical presence, McBain has earned the respect of the Mammoth, which was shown by his new five-year, $21.25 million contract, an indication that they view him as more than a fourth-line center. McBain recorded career highs in goals (13) and points (27) to go along with 291 hits and 78 penalty minutes last season. The scoring numbers alone don’t generate fantasy interest, but 291 hits ranked sixth in the entire NHL and that holds value in banger leagues already, but if McBain can expand his offensive repertoire, then he would gain more widespread appeal. While McBain doesn’t have a huge offensive pedigree in the NHL, he did have productive senior season at Boston College in 2021-2022, scoring 33 points (19 G, 14 A) in just 24 games, so maybe there is a path to him producing more if he gets consistent ice time in Utah’s top nine. If McBain gets a little more ice time in 2025-2026, then he can fairly be expected to contribute 10-15 goals and 30 points, and if he puts up 250-plus hits, too, that will give him some fantasy value and if he could pop more offensively, that appeal would climb quickly.

Alex Kerfoot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	12	20	32	0.40

A versatile veteran forward who has missed one game in the past five seasons, Kerfoot’s role was reduced last season, his ice time dropping more than two minutes per game and his point production dropped from 45 points in 2023-2024 to 28 points (11 G, 17 A) in 2024-2025. In addition to his ice time being cut, Kerfoot suffered from a dramatic swing in his on-ice shooting percentage, going from 10.1 percent two seasons ago to a career-low 6.6 percent last season. Kerfoot has established in Colorado, Toronto, and Arizona before the move to Utah that he is a reliable complementary forward who can play wing and center, moving around the lineup as needed. Last season, he won 52.5 percent of his draws, only the second season in his career in which he was the right side of the faceoff ledger. The main concern when it comes to Kerfoot’s offensive production is his reluctance to shoot the puck, recording 203 shots on goal in 163 games over the past two years. In a supporting role for the Mammoth, Kerfoot should still be counted on to play every game, and he should find his way to double-digit goals and 30-35 points.

DEFENCE

Mikhail Sergachev

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	12	40	52	0.67

Acquired from Tampa Bay following an injury-shortened 2023-2024 season, Sergachev provided Utah with the No. 1 defenceman that they needed. He sniped a career-high 15 goals and his 53 points was the second-highest total of his career. Sergachev averaged a career-high 25:07 of ice time per game and he brings a lot to the Utah defence. He is physically strong and can win puck battles, though he cut down on his hits last season compared to previous campaigns. Sergachev is also an excellent puck-handler who will use his wide base to protect the puck, taking the time necessary to make the best possible play. The smart move for the Mammoth to acquire Sergachev was that he was at a statistical buy-low point, coming off a season with a 95.1 PDO, and his percentages bounced back last season to 100.1 PDO, which is a little below his career mark, but much more in typical range. Sergachev did score on 11.4 percent of his shots on goal, which was more than double his career shooting percentage (5.6 percent) prior to last season, so that is a number likely to see some regression. Keeping in mind that he is playing 25 minutes per game for the Mammoth, Sergachev should still be able to hit double digits in goals and 50-plus points again.

Sean Durzi

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	12	17	29	0.37

An early season shoulder injury sabotaged Durzi’s 2025-2026 season, limiting him to just 30 games, and he produced 11 points (4 G, 7 A). With the acquisition of Sergachev, Durzi was not needed to quarterback the top power play unit and that will still be the case this season, but Durzi has established his ability as a right-shot puck-moving defenceman. He has confidence to make plays on the offensive blueline and has a hard and accurate shot. Durzi does not play an especially physical game, but he is quick to get in the path of opposing shooters, recording 475 blocked shots in 242 career games. As the Mammoth improved as a team, Durzi found his way to a career-high 53.6 percent Corsi, which is, at least in part, a product of his ability to move the puck up the ice. While Durzi falls behind Sergachev on the depth chart, on a relatively thin Mammoth blueline, Durzi is still the second-best fantasy option, since he will play more than 20 minutes per game and should at least quarterback the second power play unit. In 2025-2026, look for Durzi to rebound as he challenges double digit goals and 30-35 points while also recording 140 blocked shots.

John Marino

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
71	3	21	24	0.34

Acquired from the New Jersey Devils last summer, Marino missed half of the season while recovering from back surgery, so he didn’t get into the lineup until January, but the veteran blueliner was effective once he got back into his groove. Marino recorded 14 points (1 G, 13 A) in 35 games and all of those points were at even strength, so, among the 248 defencemen to play at least 200 five-on-five minutes, Marino ranked sixth in assists per 60 minutes (1.25) and 14th in points per 60 minutes (1.34). He is an excellent skater who makes good passes to exit the defensive zone, but last season’s scoring pace was unusual as he has yet to match the 26 points (6 G, 20 A) that he scored as a rookie in 2019-2020. He is also not a particularly strong presence when battling in the corners, so there is some vulnerability in that aspect of his game, but it gets offset by his positive attributes and he finished last season with a 53.6 percent Corsi, with the Mammoth outscoring opponents 30-25 with Marino on the ice. That fits into any lineup and on a Mammoth team that is light on defensive depth, Marino should play a big role in 2025-2026. He has recorded one power play point, total, in the past three seasons, so there is a limit to what Marino will provide offensively, but he should be expected to contribute 20-25 points and around 90 blocked shots which, generally, will not draw much fantasy interest.

Olli Maatta

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	2	15	17	0.22

A veteran blueliner who has been bouncing around quite a bit in recent seasons, Maatta made the most of his opportunity in Utah, earning a three-year, $10.5 million contract. While that might not sound like a huge deal, the Mammoth are Maatta’s fourth team since the 2019-2020 season and he was struggling on Detroit’s third pair before Utah traded a third-round pick to acquire him. Maatta averaged 19:55 of ice time per game in Utah, a mark that he last surpassed in 2015-2016, his third season in the NHL. Thrust into a top four role on a team that didn’t have John Marino and Sean Durzi for significant chunks of the season, Maatta was a positive possession player and the Mammoth outscored opponents 41-39 with him on the ice during five-on-five play. That’s not a game-breaking performance, rather it’s an indication that he could competently fill a spot in Utah’s top four on the blueline and that’s enough. Maatta is a competent puck-moving defenceman, though he rarely sees power play ice time and that means his scoring production will be modest. He’s also not a hitter, as last season’s total of 25 hits was his lowest since 2014-2015, when he had 18 hits in 20 games. With security and what should be a regular role on the Mammoth blueline, expect Maatta to chip in 15-20 points with 110 blocked shots. Like Marino, that’s probably not enough to generate fantasy interest, but the blueline options are limited in Utah.

GOAL

Karel Vejmelka

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
46	23	16	4	3	.906	2.72

The Utah Mammoth seem to be opting for a kitchen sink approach in net at the moment, following a year that saw Connor Ingram fail to live up to the future starter trajectory he seemed to be on when he arrived in Arizona. They'll start the 2025-26 season with Ingram and the surprisingly reliable Karel Vejmelka as their tandem pairing, but Vitek Vanecek sits waiting in the wings in case something goes awry - and Matt Villalta is hanging around in the depth chart too, along with former Providence College standout Jaxson Stauber. All five goaltenders in Utah's immediate depth chart have NHL experience, but none have a storied history as a team's relied-upon starter - which feels very Coyotes of the Mammoth, despite the expansion team's attempt to forge their own identity.

The Mammoth didn't completely flounder last season, but they failed to reach the postseason by a big enough margin that it's clear something will need to change this fall. And while Vejmelka was clearly the team's best chance of success last year, he has a shaky history when asked to shoulder too much of the workload. Ingram will need to bounce back after his tough campaign if Utah hopes to challenge, and they've got far more reliable goaltending tandems waiting across the ice from a handful of the Western Conference's Wild Card contenders.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Boston Struggling, Colorado returns to health and much more

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 16 Nov 2024 15:47:10 +0000

Boston Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman (1) (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

If you compare every team since the beginning of the salary cap era (2005-06), you’ll find that the Boston Bruins rank as the best defensively, allowing an average of just 2.55 goals per game. That’s not shocking when you consider that the Bruins have gone from Tim Thomas to Tuukka Rask to the duo of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman over that period.

Elite goaltending has simply become the norm in Boston, and it didn’t look like it was going to change. Sure, Ullmark was dealt to Ottawa for cap reasons, but the 25-year-old Swayman seemed ready to take his place as Boston’s clear No. 1, and yes, the negotiations got tense, resulting in him missing the preseason, but in the end, he signed an eight-year, $66 million contract, ending the saga with a resolution that both sides can be happy with. Except, noone has much reason to be happy with the Bruins right now.

Boston is a middling 8-8-2, a dramatic drop from its 47-20-15 finish in 2023-24, and Swayman has been part of the problem with his 5-6-2 record, 3.35 GAA and .888 save percentage in 13 starts. He leads the league in goals allowed (42), and his goals saved above expected is minus-4.6, per Moneypuck, which puts him in 65th place through Thursday’s action -- not exactly the type of return you’d expect from someone with an $8.25 million cap hit.

Maybe missing the preseason put him behind the curve, contributing to his shaky start, but he doesn’t seem to be stabilizing as the campaign goes on. To be fair, he does have his moments, but his good starts have been counterbalanced by disastrous ones, like allowing six goals on 22 shots en route to an 8-2 loss to Carolina on Oct. 31 or surrendering seven goals on 38 shots in Boston’s 7-2 loss to Dallas on Thursday. Swayman also just has a lot of uninspired starts sprinkled in there -- nine of his 13 outings have involved him surrendering at least three goals.

Maybe it’s the pressure of the contract getting to him, especially with how much he appeared to have to battle to get that deal. There’s a big mental aspect to goaltending, so it’s not hard to see how a slow start, coupled with the new deal, and perhaps even the absence of his longtime friend and goaltending partner Ullmark, could all snowball to create this outcome. Whatever the case, though, Boston is in waters that have been rare for it since the start of the cap era: They have a problem between the pipes.

Colorado has endured its own goaltending issues, but at least the Avalanche are tied for 10th offensively with 3.47 goals per game and could do even better now that their forward corps is largely healthy. They’re still missing Gabriel Landeskog (knee) and Ross Colton (foot), but Jonathan Drouin (upper body), Valeri Nichushkin (suspension) and Artturi Lehkonen (shoulder) are all back, giving them far more options than they’ve had in a while.

This is being written before Friday’s game against Washington, which is set to see the return of Nichushkin, but it looks like the tentative plan is to run two elite lines. Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen typically play together, giving the Avalanche one nearly unstoppable unit, but instead, Colorado is slated to break them up, putting MacKinnon with Lehkonen and Drouin while Rantanen will share the ice with Nichushkin and Casey Mittelstadt. If that works out, then it could make things extremely tough on the opposition's defense. It’s a luxury the Avalanche arguably couldn’t afford earlier in the season because the quality of the linemates for MacKinnon and Rantanen wouldn’t have been sufficient to split them, but at this point, it’s something they can experiment with.

It also means Ivan Ivan and Nikolai Kovalenko are now firmly in the bottom six. There was an opportunity for one or both to show what they could do with greater responsibilities when the team was ravaged by injuries, but neither stepped up. At this stage, it seems reasonable to project that Ivan and Kovalenko won’t have significant fantasy value this year, but at least they’re still okay complimentary pieces for the Avalanche.

All-in-all, Colorado’s offense looks strong at this point. The Avalanche are already on a roll, winning four of their past five games, and Colorado could continue to shine from here.

Anaheim Ducks – Mon @ DAL, Tue @ CHI, Fri vs BUF

You can get whiplash going from a conversation about the Avalanche’s offense to Anaheim’s. MacKinnon has 33 points through 17 games by himself. That equals the combined point totals of the Ducks’ top four scorers -- Troy Terry (11 points), Mason McTavish (eight), Leo Carlsson (seven) and Ryan Strome (seven).

The Ducks are consequently unlikely to generate much offense when they play in Dallas on Monday, but Anaheim might have more success in Chicago on Tuesday and when hosting Buffalo on Friday.

Health will be a factor in that. McTavish has missed the Ducks’ past two games because of an upper-body injury, but he’s day-to-day, so there’s a real chance he’ll be fine for next week’s action.

Even with him back, though, the Ducks need help on offense. A resurgence of Trevor Zegras would be the most obvious boost. However, he had just 15 points in 31 contests in 2023-24 and has diminished further to just three points through 15 appearances this season -- a far cry from his back-to-back 60-plus point campaigns in 2021-22 and 2022-23. He’s still just 23 years old, so it seems wrong to suggest he’s washed up, but then what is the problem?

First off, his lone goal this campaign was scored on an empty net, so you’d have to go back to April 13 to find the last time he beat an NHL goaltender in a regular-season game. He’s averaging 6.3 shots per 60 minutes in 2024-25, which is down from 8.1 in 2021-22 and 7.2 in 2022-23, so that doesn’t help. Seven of his 27 shots this year have been fired from a high-danger position, which puts him below the league average of 7.9 among forwards. All that’s bad, but not to the extent where he should have literally zero goals against goaltenders.

Moneypuck gives him an xG of 3.6, he has a PDO of 951 along with exactly zero secondary assists and his IPP of 42.9 is leagues below his career average. All that suggests some of his offensive woes are due to poor luck. Still, three points in 15 appearances is so bad that it’s hard to imagine him having a good campaign even if the luck was balanced.

Still, he’s worth keeping an eye on. The talent is there, and there are some indications that he’s been shifting to a more complete game despite his lack of offense, as Patrick Present of The Hockey News recently noted. Plus, he’s still young, and when coupled with him attempting to adjust his game, some growing pains are understandable. Don’t expect this to be a big campaign from him, but also don’t write him off yet.

Boston Bruins – Mon vs CBJ, Thu vs UTA, Sat @ DET

We talked about Swayman’s woes up top. Perhaps it will help him that the Bruins’ opponents next week rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of goals per game. Boston is set to host the Blue Jackets on Monday and Utah HC on Thursday before playing in Detroit on Saturday.

Swayman is the headline issue for the Bruins, but he isn’t the only one. The forward corps is also leaving something to be desired. We’ve seen better out of David Pastrnak (eight goals and 17 points through 18 games) and Brad Marchand (five goals and 13 points), but both are doing well enough, even when measured against the high standards they’re held to. The problem is no other player on the team has reached double digits in points.

Elias Lindholm, who signed a seven-year, $54.25 million contract over the summer, was the Bruins’ big offseason get to solidify the team up the middle. However, he hasn’t been that great. After scoring two goals and five points over his first three games with Boston, Lindholm has been limited to four assists across his past 15 outings. To be fair, he’s known for his two-way game, and his relative CF% and FF% are outstanding at plus-8.8 and plus-12.2, respectively. Still, you’d like to see more scoring out of him when he’s spending almost all of his 5-on-5 time alongside at least one of Pastrnak and Marchand.

Pavel Zacha has left something to be desired too with three goals and seven points through 18 outings after finishing 2023-24 with 59 points. He might be heating up, though. Zacha has two goals and four points through his past four appearances, so perhaps he can carry that momentum into next week, especially given the mediocre nature of Boston’s upcoming competition.

Chicago Blackhawks – Tue vs ANA, Thu vs FLA, Sat @ PHI

Chicago will host the Ducks and the Panthers on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before visiting Philadelphia on Saturday. Florida is a tough team, but the Ducks and the Flyers haven’t looked good so far in 2024-25.

Not that the Blackhawks have impressed either with their 6-10-1 record. Petr Mrazek has largely held his own with a 2.79 GAA and a .906 save percentage in 13 appearances, which are solid numbers when you consider that Chicago ranks 28th in xGA/60 (3.39), which suggests Mrazek hasn’t gotten much help from his teammates defensively.

They also haven’t helped Mrazek offensively. Chicago is tied for 29th with just 2.41 goals per game, and even Connor Bedard has left something to be desired with three goals and 13 points through 17 appearances. Bedard is on an eight-game goal-scoring slump with four assists in that span, but let’s not be too hard on him. He’s still just 19 years old, so some streaky play is expected, and he has a healthy enough 21 shots during that slump, so eventually he’ll break through.

I’m more disappointed in Teuvo Teravainen. He signed a three-year, $16.2 million contract over the summer to come to Chicago from Carolina and has been primarily used alongside Bedard. However, Teravainen hasn’t been able to generate much of anything in 5-on-5 play with the young star. The 30-year-old has four goals and eight points through 17 appearances with just two of those points (one goal) coming at even strength. Interesting, his 5-on-5 xG is also just one, so the issue isn’t exactly bad puck luck.

Bedard has also been tried with Taylor Hall and/or Tyler Bertuzzi, but significantly less often than Teravainen. Philipp Kurashev has seen significant time alongside Bedard as well, though Kurashev has just three goals and four points through 16 outings. That’s a massive drop from Kurashev’s 54-point showing in 2023-24, and the decline is largely due to a lack of assists.

The line mixing is likely to continue to happen as long as Chicago’s offense remains cold. In the long run, it would be nice to see Kurashev and Bedard rekindle some of their 2023-24 chemistry -- they showed up together on the scoresheet 25 times last season. If we start seeing some of that, then Kurashev would become a good buy-low candidate.

Dallas Stars – Mon vs ANA, Wed vs SJS, Sat @ TBL

Dallas will start the week by hosting the lowly Ducks and Sharks on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. The Stars will then travel to Tampa Bay to play the Lightning on Saturday.

Matt Duchene will look to extend his recent success during that stretch. He has a phenomenal eight goals and 17 points across his past 10 appearances, including two goals and five points over his last two games. He’s been seeing time alongside Mason Marchment, who is also on fire with two goals and seven points over his past two outings, so that duo could do a lot of damage, especially against rebuilding squads like Anaheim and San Jose.

At the other end of the spectrum, Dallas could use more out of Roope Hintz. His six goals and 10 points through 15 outings aren’t bad, but it’s below the pace Dallas has come to expect after seeing Hintz record at least 30 goals and 65 points in each of his previous three campaigns. Hintz did endure a four-game scoring drought from Oct. 26-Nov. 7, but there’s a silver lining here because he’s found the back of the net twice over his past three games, so perhaps the worst is over.

The action is also spread out enough that Jake Oettinger might start in all three of those games. He’s 8-3-0 with a 2.39 GAA and .914 save percentage in 11 appearances in 2024-25. He’s also coming off two really strong victories, stopping 43 of 46 shots in blowout wins against Pittsburgh and Boston.

Detroit Red Wings – Mon @ SJS, Thu vs NYI, Sat vs BOS

The Red Wings will play in San Jose on Monday before hosting the Islanders on Thursday and the Bruins on Saturday. Detroit will be looking to gain some ground after a mediocre 7-7-1 start.

Detroit has to be disappointed with Vladimir Tarasenko, who inked a two-year, $9.5 million contract over the summer but has just two goals and four points through 14 appearances. This one is a bit of a “the chicken or the egg” problem. Tarasenko is averaging just 13:41 of ice time while typically serving on the third line alongside Jonatan Berggren and Marco Kasper. That’s not a recipe for success or the top six role many envisioned when he signed his deal. At the same time, he hasn’t done anything to force himself into a bigger role. From Oct. 22-Nov. 2, he appeared in five games without even recording a single shot.

You’re not going to move up in the lineup with that kind of play. On the plus side, he has logged an assist and seven shots over his past two outings, so maybe we’re witnessing the start of him getting some going. I’m skeptical, but it’s worthy of monitoring.

Detroit could certainly use another source of secondary scoring. The Red Wings rank 28th offensively with just 2.47 goals per game. Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin have done fine with 14, 13 and 12 points, respectively, through 15 appearances and Patrick Kane is holding his own at 35, providing three goals and 10 points. The rest of the offense hasn’t been anything to write home about, though, and no one aside from maybe Tarasenko jumps out to me as a struggling forward to watch.

That includes Michael Rasmussen. He was taken with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, but he has never even reached the 35-point mark and has just two goals and four points in 15 outings in 2024-25. He’s a towering presence, but at the age of 25, I think it’s fair to believe that the offense isn’t coming.

Edmonton Oilers – Mon @ MTL, Tue @ OTT, Thu vs MIN, Sat vs COL

The Oilers will open the week with road games in Montreal on Monday and Ottawa on Tuesday. They’ll then return to Edmonton to host the Wild on Thursday and the Rangers on Saturday.

Edmonton had a mixed start to the season in part because of inconsistent offensive production, but it’s okay now: Connor McDavid remembered that he’s Connor McDavid. The superstar has posted three straight multi-point efforts, causing him to jump to six goals and 19 points through 14 appearances despite a weirdly human start in which he recorded three goals and 10 points in his first 11 outings -- good for others, not for him.

If McDavid has found his grove, then Edmonton is in a far better position, but the Oilers do still have some areas of concern. Stuart Skinner is still a mixed bag with a 5-5-1 record, 3.22 GAA and .881 save percentage in 11 outings. You’ll likely remember that Skinner had a terrible start to 2023-24 before turning a corner, and it could be argued that his Nov. 24 25-save shutout over Washington was when everything started working out for him last year. In other words, we’re getting to roughly the same stage of the year, and we’ll have to see if Skinner can once again find his rhythm or if he doesn’t enjoy that same kind of turnaround in 2024-25.

Edmonton’s offseason attempts at deepening the offense also haven’t paid off yet. Jeff Skinner has just three goals and six points while Viktor Arvidsson has two goals and five points. Arvidsson is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, so we might not see him this week. Meanwhile, Skinner has been relegated to the fourth line recently. Skinner has had a weird career full of amazing highs and significant lows. There’s consequently no guarantee that a turnaround is forthcoming this year, but if he does get another look on Edmonton’s top six, which I think is just a matter of time, then he’ll be worth keeping an eye on.

San Jose Sharks – Mon vs DET, Wed @ DAL, Thu @ STL, Sat vs BUF

I like to highlight teams who are set to play four games in a week over those with three or two games on the docket, but there aren’t many examples of that upcoming. San Jose is one of the exceptions. The Sharks’ busy schedule will begin by hosting the Red Wings on Monday. They’ll then play in Dallas on Wednesday and St. Louis on Thursday before returning home to face the Sabres on Saturday.

Naturally, if you’re going to watch Sharks hockey, the player you’ll be most interested in is Macklin Celebrini. Taken with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, he was out from Oct. 12-Nov. 2 due to a lower-body injury. Unfortunately, he’s been mostly quiet since, providing two goals Nov. 7 but also being held off the scoresheet entirely in his other four appearances dating back to his Nov. 5 return.

It's too small of a sample size to read too much into it, but Celebrini is a tremendous talent who is averaging 19:25 of ice time and has recorded 20 shots over six outings in 2024-25, so I expect him to start producing at a good pace as the campaign progresses.

In the meantime, Mikael Granlund has done his part. He has seven goals and 18 points in 18 games to lead the Sharks offensively this season. A lot of that was due to him recording five goals and 12 points across seven outings from Oct. 17-28, though. He’s been fine since, but his two goals and five points over his past eight contests are a noticeable decline. There might be some merit to selling him high, but I think his goal-scoring pace, which would lead to him finishing with 32 markers, has actual merit.

He’s never reached the 30-goal milestone before and finished 2023-24 with just 12 goals, but he’s traditionally been a very conservative shooter. That’s changed in a big way this year -- he's averaging a career-high 9.9 shots per 60 minutes, and that includes 14 high-danger shots, which puts him on track for 64, up from 44 last year. His increase in shots also means that his 10.9 shooting percentage isn’t significantly off his career average (10.3) despite his big jump in goals.

Granlund and Celebrini are currently centering different lines, but they share the ice on the power play. Although Sharks rank 23rd in terms of power-play percentage (16.4), that might improve as Celebrini gets going, which would also benefit Granlund.

Utah HC – Mon vs WAS, Thu @ BOS, Sat @ PIT, Sun @ TOR

Utah HC is another squad with four games on the schedule next week. The club will host the Capitals on Monday before a road trip that will place Utah HC in Boston on Thursday, Pittsburgh on Saturday and Toronto on Sunday.

Utah has been an interesting team. It got off to a 3-0-0 start fueled by some great offensive performances, but the scoring has cooled, and the club is now 7-6-3.

One positive is Mikhail Sergachev has messed well with his new team after being dealt from Tampa Bay in June. Sergachev has three goals and 11 points in 16 outings in 2024-25 while averaging 25:35 of ice time -- that'll be a career high if he maintains it for the full campaign. He also has a big power-play role and has collected three points (one goal) with the man advantage. It’s reasonable to project he’ll surpass the 50-point milestone for the second time in his career as long as he stays healthy.

Up front, Clayton Keller (six goals, 14 points), Dylan Guenther (seven goals, 13 points), Nick Schmaltz (12 assists) and Logan Cooley (two goals, 11 points) have been leading the charge, but none of them are especially hot right now. Nick Bjugstad is an interesting forward, though. He’s capable of being a solid secondary scorer, but he averaged just 13:20 of ice time this season, down from 17:27 in 2023-24. He did make his mark Wednesday, though, scoring his first two goals of the campaign to lead Utah to a 4-1 victory over Carolina. Bjugstad is getting a chance to play alongside Keller and Schmaltz, so he might be able to build off that strong showing.

That would help Utah, but what the club needs more than anything is reliability between the pipes. Although Connor Ingram has a respectable 6-3-3 record, his 3.40 GAA and .879 aren’t inspiring. Meanwhile, Karel Vejmelka is just 1-3-0, but he has a 2.37 GAA and a .926 save percentage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vejmelka get more work, perhaps leading to him starting in at least two of Utah’s games next week.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – UTAH HOCKEY CLUB – Team Preview

Tue, 24 Sep 2024 20:00:14 +0000

_{ST. LOUIS, MO - FEBRUARY 11: Arizona Coyotes right wing Clayton Keller (9) chews on his mouth guard while waiting for the face off during a game between the Arizona Coyotes and the St. Louis Blues on February 11 2023, at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis MO (Photo by Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire)}

The last season in Arizona, before moving to Utah, was not successful as the Coyotes finished the season with 77 points (36-41-5), leaving them in sixth place in the Central Division. While they finished 21 points out of a playoff spot, the Coyotes did perform better than expected. Arizona ranked 23rd with 48.0% Corsi and 48.1% of expected goals. On the power play, the Coyotes ranked 16th with 7.96 goals per 60 minutes while the penalty killing ranked 27th with 8.94 goals against per 60 minutes. They did not have enough top-end talent to compete with the best teams in the league, but the Coyotes could have easily been one of the worst, so finishing in 27th place overall felt like a bit of a win. Things were not great in Arizona and should be better with the move to Utah, especially if it means that the team has the financial wherewithal to compete.

WHAT’S CHANGED? The big change is that the Arizona Coyotes moved to Utah, where they haven’t settled on a long-term team name, so they are going with Utah HC for the time being. Aside from the franchise moving to a new city, the hockey team stayed with a decent amount of continuity. The top 11 scorers from last year’s team remain with the club. The 12th was the defenceman J.J. Moser, who was traded to Tampa Bay as part of the deal for defenceman Mikhail Sergachev. Utah signed checking centre Kevin Stenlund who had just won a Stanley Cup with the Florida Panthers. Utah also bolstered its defence by trading to get John Marino from New Jersey and then signing Ian Cole, who played with Vancouver last season.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Since the Arizona Coyotes finished 21 points out of the playoffs last season, it would be asking a lot for Utah to make up that deficit. The moves to acquire Sergachev and Marino should give their defence more consistency and if the goaltending is up to par, then there just might be a chance for the Coyotes to play meaningful games down the stretch. To get there, it will require Utah’s top players to remain at their best, but moreover the young players will need to take big steps forward. If, for example, Logan Cooley is a star in his second season, that development could help move the Coyotes into a more competitive tier.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? In relative terms, it would be difficult for Utah HC to have dramatically worse results, even though they may have overachieved somewhat last season. Even if the season went the wrong way, that could put Utah HC into position to earn a higher draft pick. With a new home and new ownership, they can continue to build the right way, and not rush into a misguided move to improve now. Additionally, there is a brighter future for the team in Arizona because the ownership appears committed to building a contender, something that was not happening in Arizona, where the Coyotes were playing home games in a college hockey rink.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: He has already been mentioned but Logan Cooley is a prime candidate to take a step forward in his second NHL season. Cooley is a creative offensive player who plays at a high speed. While he had some ups and downs as a rookie, it looked like he was finding his groove late in the season, which should set him up for a significant jump in Year two. If he gets the chance to play with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz on the top line, Cooley could see a big boost in production.

FORWARD

Clayton Keller

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	35	45	80	0.99

A crafty playmaking winger, Keller has really come into his own in the past two seasons, tallying 70 goals and 162 points, one of 18 players across the league to hit those totals in those two years. He has grown comfortable launching one-timers from the right faceoff circle on power play and had 30 points with the man advantage in 2023-2024. He uses his quickness to dart in and out of openings before the defence knows what has happened. Because he is not a massive physical presence, Keller tends to do his best work when he can avoid traffic, either in transition or on the power play. That’s not to say that he can’t score otherwise, but he uses his savvy to find pockets of space where he can unleash his increasingly dangerous shot. Also, when he gets in alone on a goaltender, Keller has lightning quick hands that can leave goalies grasping for air. As the bona fide star of the Utah team, Keller needs to keep producing at this elite level and hope that he can get more support in the coming seasons. As it is, he has made a good connection with Nick Schmaltz on the opposite wing of the top line. Last season that duo had a rotating cast of centres including Barrett Hayton, Nick Bjugstad, Jack McBain, and Logan Cooley and it would figure that Keller’s production could get even better if one of those players, ideally Cooley, could stick in the role full-time. In any case, Keller should be looking at 30-35 goals and 75-80 points in the franchise’s first season in Utah.

Nick Schmaltz

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	24	36	60	0.74

Even though Schmaltz finished last season with a career-high 61 points, he was more productive on a per-game basis in the previous two campaigns, during which he played just 63 games. Schmaltz was a pass-first player when he started in the league but has grown into a more balanced offensive role, though he is not ever going to be a high-volume shooter. What hasn’t changed is that Schmaltz has always been a creative playmaker with soft hands, so it should come as little surprise that he has enjoyed his most success skating on a line with Keller in recent seasons. When they are cooking, they can really work some magic together. Schmaltz does not get terribly involved in physical play. Across the past five seasons, he has a total of 70 hits. There have been 527 players to skate in at least 200 games over that time and only nine – four of whom did not play in 2023-2024 – have fewer hits than Schmaltz. Even so, the puck does tend to move in the right direction when he is on the ice, so Schmaltz is a valuable contributor on this team. He should continue at a similar level of production which would mean 20-25 goals and 60 points in 2024-2025.

Logan Cooley

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	27	37	64	0.78

The third pick in the 2022 Draft, Cooley jumped to the NHL after spending one season at the University of Minnesota, where he shredded the competition, putting up 60 points in 39 games. Cooley plays the game at high speed and uses his acceleration to create chances but also just to go hard to the net because that’s where goals are scored. It’s not surprising that Cooley struggled on faceoffs as a rookie, winning just 38.0 percent because that’s fairly common. He also has room to improve his play-driving as the Coyotes were controlling 47.4 percent of shot attempts and 48.4 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Cooley on the ice. Despite those areas for improvement, Cooley was one of four rookies to score 20 goals last season and ranked fourth among rookies with 44 points, but he finished with a flourish to get there, putting up nine goals and 14 points in his last 16 games. That kind of production offers a glimpse into what could await Cooley in the future, because he has high-end offensive instincts and could be in position to jump higher on the Utah depth chart in 2024-2025. In his second NHL season, Cooley should see an increased offensive output, with 20-25 goals and 55 points a fair expectation, yet that could end up being low if Cooley picks up where he left off last season.

Dylan Guenther

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	29	27	56	0.74

The ninth pick in the 2021 Draft, Guenther has quickly established a reputation for his rocket shot, and it lifted him to 18 goals and 35 points in 45 games after he was called up from the American Hockey League, where he had 10 goals and 28 points in 29 games. Half of Guenther’s 18 goals were scored on the power play, the 21-year-old already making himself indispensable with the man advantage. Knowing that his shot is his calling card, Guenther does a fine job getting into soft spots in the defensive zone coverage and getting there ready to fire the puck at a moment’s notice. There were 375 forwards that played at least 500 five-on-five minutes last season. Of that group, Guenther ranked 71st in shots per 60 minutes (8.51). That should be on the low end of where he is headed in his career, because when you have a weapon like Guenther’s shot, there is little point in keeping it holstered. That doesn’t mean shooting for the sake of shooting, but when a player can bury the puck from distance, it becomes very important to provide consistent opportunities for that player to use that skill. For his first full season in the National Hockey League, Guenther should be able to contribute 25 goals and 50 points and that might even be on the low end if he happens to find a quality line for regular playing time. His most common linemates last season were Cooley and Crouse, which is not bad, but it looks like there should be some competition for scoring roles in Utah this season.

Lawson Crouse

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	22	21	43	0.54

A power forward who has scored at least 20 goals in three straight seasons, Crouse has also recorded more than 150 hits for six years running. Crouse is 6-foot-4 and skates with a powerful stride. He will bang bodies and, when needed, drop the gloves, but that is not a big feature to his game as he has had a dozen fights in his past five seasons. As his game has matured, he has improved his ability to get into scoring position and is ready to shoot the puck when he gets there. Having had some offensive success, there is greater confidence in Crouse’s game now, and while he is not the type of player to create a ton of chances, he is fine complement to players who can get the puck into the offensive zone and can use Crouse’s net-front presence to finish the play. Crouse’s most common linemates last season were Nick Bjugstad, a big centre, and Matias Maccelli, a playmaking winger who could benefit from those large linemates. The trio outscored opponents 23-16, controlling 55.0 percent of expected goals, during five-on-five play last season. Look for Crouse to continue providing complementary offence, including 20-plus goals and 40-plus points for Utah in 2024-2025.

Matias Maccelli

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	16	41	57	0.70

A smaller winger, Maccelli has still established that he can be a valuable playmaker, fitting in the middle six as well as adding skill to the power play. In the past two seasons, the Coyotes outscored opponents 87-73 with Maccelli on the ice during five-on-five play. His possession numbers have been okay, including 48.6 percent Corsi percentage and 51.2 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play. Maccelli is shifty and uses his edges to change direction and create space, which he tends to need, but once he gains that space, he has outstanding vision and finds his linemates for some of the easiest tap-ins around the net. While Maccelli is not big, he does use a wide base to protect the puck and that is a key part of his game in the offensive zone, because holding the puck longer allows him to generate better scoring chances, usually for his linemates. Last season, he was the playmaking force on a line with Bjugstad and Crouse, but if there is an upgrade on one of those spots, that could give Maccelli even more scoring upside. Heading into his third full season in the NHL, Maccelli should be able to score 15 goals and 55-60 points, which makes him a really valuable piece for the Utah Hockey Club.

Barrett Hayton

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	10	21	31	0.44

Following what amounted to a breakthrough season in 2022-2023, when he had career highs of 19 goals and 43 points, Hayton managed just 10 points in 33 games last season, his season upended by several injuries. Considering that his most common linemates were Schmaltz and Keller, that production was woefully insignificant. When he’s on his game, Hayton has good speed and can attack the net. There have been flashes, but it’s still a work in progress because he hasn’t truly done it for a full season. At the same time, Hayton has also delivered strong play-driving numbers, which at least offers some hope that there is more to the story than 84 points in 209 career games. It’s one thing to see Hayton manage just 10 points in 33 games last season, but then he had a Corsi percentage of 54.2 and an expected goals percentage of 55.1. Those are underlying numbers that suggest a quality player and it’s up to the team, and Hayton himself, to figure out how to translate that into production that can make the difference in games. At this point in his career, 24-year-old Hayton should be expected to put up 30 points, something he has only accomplished once, but there is room for him to score significantly more, depending on which linemates he skates with most frequently.

Nick Bjugstad

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	17	18	35	0.44

Returning to Arizona last season after finishing the previous year in Edmonton, 32-year-old centre Nick Bjugstad delivered one of his best seasons, ending up with 22 goals and 45 points. Those were the second highest totals for him in both categories in his entire career. Bjugstad also played a career-high 17:27 per game, so the opportunity was provided to him and he responded favourably. At 6-foot-6, Bjugstad has towering size, which serves him well both in a defensive role and when trying to carve out space in front of the opposing goal. He appears to have found a fit with this franchise. In 135 games with Bjugstad on the ice in the past two seasons, the Coyotes outscored opponents 85-65, and this while starting less than 40 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone. He needed some lofty percentages (103.1 PDO) to get there, but Bjugstad has had a positive impact, and he has made the team more competitive. He is a useful option in the middle six and should fulfill that role again in Utah. While he could get overtaken by younger options, it would still be fair to expect 15 goals and 35 points from Bjugstad in 2024-2025.

Alex Kerfoot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	29	41	0.50

A durable forward who has not missed a game in the past four seasons, Kerfoot played a career-high 17:26 per game last season and finished with 45 points, including 12 on the power play, his most power play points since the 2018-2019 season. While Kerfoot is a solid complementary contributor, and his playmaking skills allow him to put some points on the board, he is a downright reluctant shooter. Among the 375 forwards to play at least 500 minutes last season, Kerfoot’s 4.15 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five ranked 363rd. His 0.88 primary assists per 60 minutes ranked 48th, so there are some numbers to back up the idea that he would much prefer to have his teammates do the scoring. After several seasons playing primarily on the wing, Kerfoot took 862 faceoffs last season, which ranked second on the Coyotes behind Nick Bjugstad. Of course, none of the Coyotes players that took even 100 draws finished on the right side of 50 percent at the dot. Kerfoot is a smart and versatile player, albeit one who is not overpowering and there may be a few too many forwards on this roster who find themselves at a disadvantage when the game gets more physical. The expectation for 2024-2025 should be that Kerfoot will play every game and contribute maybe a dozen goals and finish with 40-plus points, a threshold he has crossed four times in seven NHL seasons.

Jack McBain

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	9	15	24	0.31

A big, physical player, McBain is one of five forwards to accrue more than 500 hits across the past two seasons. He also has recorded eight fights, so the 6-foot-3 centre has established his path into the NHL with physical play. He is more than just a big body, however, as McBain’s possession stats improved notably last season, and his 49.4 percent Corsi and 50.3 percent expected goals percentage were respectable for a player who starts more of his shifts in the defensive zone and whose most common linemates were enforcer Liam O’Brien and Michael Carcone. Furthermore, the Coyotes outscored opponents by 38-31 during five-on-five play with McBain on the ice. Those results are fantastic from a fourth line forward so it is conceivable that McBain could climb into the middle six though, based on current personnel, he might not be able to do it at centre. A safe projection for McBain would be along the lines of double-digit goals and 30 points, but there is also a world in which he produces more than that. When that production gets paired with McBain’s lofty hit totals, it does give him a chance to have fantasy relevance. It takes a lot of hits to make up for such modest scoring numbers, but if McBain gets up to 35 points, that starts to open the door in more leagues.

Michael Carcone

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	16	10	26	0.33

A late bloomer who just played his first full NHL season, the 28-year-old Carcone did deliver 21 goals for Arizona in 2023-2024, with his 1.45 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play ranking sixth among forwards that played at least 500 minutes. That came on the heels of scoring 31 goals and 85 points in 65 AHL games the season before, so he knows what he is doing in the offensive zone, and he is excellent in transition going on the attack. Carcone will take the puck to the net and has a goal-scorer’s release. The other end of the rink, however, is a legitimate area of concern as Carcone had the highest rate of shot attempts against, shots against, and expected goals against among Arizona forwards. That suspect defensive play makes it more challenging for Carcone to secure his spot in the lineup, but if he does manage to find a regular role, he should be able to deliver some points along the way. As a 5-foot-9 winger, Carcone is facing an uphill fight to hold a regular spot on the lower half of the depth chart, but if he has a relatively regular spot in the Utah lineup, Carcone could chip in 15-20 goals and 30-plus points.

DEFENCE

Mikhail Sergachev

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	11	44	55	0.71

Coming off a broken leg last season, Sergachev had a career-best season in 2022-2023, recording 64 points, including 27 on the power play. He fell off that pace in 2023-2024 managing 19 points in 34 games but also getting outscored 33-17 during five-on-five play. He had horrific percentages, including an on-ice shooting percentage of 6.2 percent and an on-ice save percentage of .889, leaving him with a 95.1 PDO. There were 217 defencemen that played at least 500 five-on-five minutes last season and only three of them had a lower PDO than Sergachev, so it was certainly a buy-low situation for Utah when they acquired him from the Tampa Bay Lightning. In Arizona, Sergachev should continue to play a major role. He has averaged more than 22 minutes per game in each of the past three seasons and it would come as no surprise if he ended up adding a couple more minutes per game to his responsibilities on what is a relatively thin blueline group in Utah. Sergachev is physically strong and uses a wide base to effectively protect the puck. He can play a physical game and block shots but his greatest value for fantasy managers is if he is quarterbacking the top power play unit. If that’s the case, Sergachev ought to be able to produce 45-50 points, provided that he stays healthy. Before last season’s injury, his career had been marked by especially good health, so Sergachev should be counted on as a workhorse In 2024-2025.

Sean Durzi

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	8	32	40	0.51

Acquired from the Los Angeles Kings last summer, Durzi stepped into a big role for the Coyotes, playing 22:43 per game, the highest average in his three NHL seasons. He finished with a career-high 41 points and blocked a career-high 160 shots. A right-shot puck-moving defenceman, Durzi has averaged 4.82 points per 60 minutes through his first three NHL seasons. There were 57 defencemen that have played at least 300 five-on-four minutes in those seasons and Durzi ranks 18th in points per 60 minutes. It is worth noting that Sergachev, Utah’s high-profile acquisition, ranks seventh with 5.90 points per 60. Nevertheless, Durzi plays with legitimate confidence on the offensive blueline and has a hard and accurate shot that allows him to score goals from long range. He played 91 games in the AHL, spread across two-plus seasons, before making the jump the Kings in 2021-2022. He has made steady progress in his first three seasons and should be in his prime right now. Although Durzi could lose time on the top power play unit, he is still likely to play big minutes for Utah and could very well partner with Sergachev. While his hit totals are nothing to write home about, Durzi could deliver 40 points and 150 hits in 2024-2025, which would offer plenty of value for fantasy managers.

Juuso Valimaki

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	3	21	24	0.31

One of the better waiver acquisitions in recent seasons, Valimaki has shown that he is a legitimate NHL defenceman. He played a career-high 19:06 per game last season and was tops among Coyotes defencemen with Arizona controlling a team-high 52.5 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Valimaki on the ice. Valimaki had a dozen power play points in 2022-2023, but with Durzi rolling into town, he lost that power play role. He has good size and moves well, so it is easy to see how Valimaki fits on the Utah blueline, but it took some time before he could get a serious shot with regular minutes in the NHL. He is not especially physical, so that is always an area that could be improved upon, but the puck moves the right way when he is on the ice, at least relative to his teammates, and that is happening even though Valimaki starts more of his shifts in the defensive zone. It’s been a meteoric rise for Valimaki, who was claimed off waivers and by last season his most common defence partners were rookie Michael Kesselring and veteran Troy Stecher. With those partners, Valimaki is the one who would be considered the steady and reliable partner. It would be entirely reasonable for him to get more playing time, and could contribute about 25 points, but he is not likely to have a regular power play role and that puts a cap on his point projections.

GOAL

Connor Ingram

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
55	25	23	6	3	0.906	2.75

It feels like few goaltenders have been tested as much as Utah starter Connor Ingram. Despite performing as one of the most obvious minor-league standouts within the Tampa Bay system in his early career, he found himself shuttled between the AHL and ECHL before getting jettisoned for another franchise's system entirely. But after time spent in the league's Player Assistance Program for OCD, Ingram's career went on a steady rise; he moved from the minors in the Nashville depth chart to the Arizona Coyotes, where he earned a role as the team's best starter since the Antti Raanta-Darcy Kuemper tandem pre-pandemic. Just as he found his footing in the league, though, the team's relocation rumors finally came to a head - and he'll now have to prove that he can replicate his stellar numbers on a rebuilding squad in a brand-new town, absent the ever-swirling relocation and sale chatter but also absent the powerful underdog vibes that seemed to permeate Mullett Arena in Tempe.

Ingram was tied for the league lead in shutouts last season over his 50-game campaign, sitting above league average in every stat category despite playing for a team that went on a tumultuous ride on and off the ice. He showed a little bit of weakness from a technical standpoint when it came to his glove side, and his tendency to try to play it safe with conservative angles and flatter positioning didn't always pan out when the younger then-Coyotes defensive corps left him open to cross-ice challenges. But he looked far and away like the more consistent option for his team between himself and Karel Vejmelka, so expect to see the starts still heavily favoring Ingram up in the Utah snow.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK: Fantasy All Star Team

Scott Cullen — Sat, 21 Sep 2024 18:37:48 +0000

New Jersey Devils right wing Timo Meier (28) . (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

When it’s time to draft or auction your fantasy hockey squad, the primary focus should be on finding value. That is a relative term and when drafting blue-chippers in the first round, there is not as much excess value to be found.

Teams most definitely need Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak and the like, but the value they provide is less likely to exceed expectations than if you happen to hit on a player in the middle rounds who suddenly becomes a first-rate scoring winger.

Think of the value provided by the likes of Sam Reinhart and Zach Hyman last season. They were very good and productive players already, but Reinhart surpassed his previous career high in goals by 24, Hyman surpassed his by 18.

The objective is to find players who will exceed expectations and sometimes that process can be assisted by expectations being lowered for whatever reason.

Where does one look to find fantasy all-stars?

Good Health

Players who miss time with injuries get lost in the shuffle. If they are chronically injured, then it might be a reach to expect them to suddenly play a full season, but hockey is a physical game, and injuries happen. If it lowers expectations for a player, that just might open a window for that player to surpass those expectations.

New Opportunities

Production is the objective when seeking players and a crucial factor to consider are the opportunities being offered to the player. Are they playing on the first line? Getting first-unit power play time? Those are ideal situations. But the player who moves from a checking role to a role in the top six has greater potential value. Players who go from 12 minutes per game to 15 should be expected to score more. Same goes for the players who move from 15 to 18 minutes per game. More ice time provides more opportunity for more production.

Taking it to a New Level

When it comes to young players, especially, there is a career progression that is to be expected. It is not uniform but as these players are ascending through their careers, catching them before a breakthrough season is a great way to find excess value. Hitting on Evan Bouchard before he broke through for 82 points last season, after scoring 40 the year before, provides massive value.

Statistical Track Record Matters

When seeking players who will provide more value, don’t shy away from players who have proven their level of play, but maybe ran into a down season. Maybe it was low percentages or injuries or the wrong linemates or a bad coach; in any case, if the player has been productive in the past, it’s easier to give them the benefit of the doubt when faced with some statistical complications.

Last season’s best hits on the Fantasy All-Stars included Bouchard, Lucas Raymond, Yegor Sharangovich, Pavel Zacha, Jonathan Drouin, and Gustav Forsling.

This year, in a fit of stubbornness, I have included three players that were on last year’s Fantasy All-Star team that didn’t quite pan out. This is going to be their year!

FANTASY ALL-STARS

FORWARDS

Tomas Hertl, C, Vegas

Playing a big role on the 2023-2024 San Jose Sharks was not a great situation for Hertl, who also missed a couple of months with a knee injury. He finished the season with 38 points in 54 games, then added just one point in seven playoff games, so this was not a strong showing from Hertl, but that’s precisely why he offers potential value going into the 2024-2025 season. Hertl’s on-ice shooting percentage, playing with overmatched linemates in San Jose for most of the season, was 6.5 percent, the second-lowest mark of his career. Hertl should be healthier as he gets further away from last season’s knee surgery and he will be skating with a much better team in Vegas, which should mean an upgrade both in five-on-five linemates and during his time on the top power play unit.

Timo Meier, RW, New Jersey

When the Devils acquired Meier from the Sharks in 2022-2023, he didn’t really hit his stride for the rest of that season, and for more than half of last season. He finally started to get going in late February last season and, in the last 26 games, Meier had 18 goals and 30 points with 3.50 shots on goal per game down the stretch. Meier’s overall production (28 goals and 52 points in 69 games) was solid enough, but his finish to the campaign showed that he still has the capability to be far more than that.

Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Edmonton

Returning to action following back surgery, Arvidsson had six goals and 15 points with 59 shots on goal in 18 games for the Kings. A five-time 20-goal scorer who is a consistent shot generator, Arvidsson signed in Edmonton as a free agent and is staring at an opportunity to play in the Oilers’ top six, which should mean a chance to play alongside Leon Draisaitl and the experience of playing a key role in Edmonton’s attack after spending his career with more buttoned-down teams in Nashville and Los Angeles could cause some culture shock, but it should also bring Arvidsson even more scoring opportunities.

Juraj Slafkovsky (20) of the Montreal Canadiens Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, Montreal

The first pick in the 2022 Draft, Slafkovsky did not do much as a rookie and started slowly in his second season. He then got a chance to skate alongside Nick Suzuki on Montreal’s top line and things started to fall into place. In his last 40 games, Slafkovsky contributed 16 goals and 35 points, this after he scored four goals and 15 points in his first 42 games, and the 20-year-old power forward started to show that he could be a consistent scoring threat. Now, it’s time for him to do it for a full season.

Shane Pinto, C, Ottawa

Suspended for the first 41 games last season for a violation of the league’s gambling policy, Pinto produced a respectable nine goals and 27 points in 41 games after returning to action. However, he scored on just 8.2 percent of his shots on goal and his on-ice shooting percentage was 7.5 percent, which is on the low side as well. The Sens controlled 56.4 percent of expected goals with Pinto on the ice, the best mark on the team, so he should be given ample opportunity to build on last season’s strong finish, and maybe have the percentages tilt a little bit more in his direction.

Logan Cooley, C, Utah

The third pick in the 2022 Draft, Cooley showed promise during his rookie season in 2023-2024 and finished the season in style with nine goals and 14 points in his last 16 games. He plays at high speed and as his season progressed, Cooley started to reap the rewards of generating shots more consistently and there is still room for improvement in that aspect of the game. With increasing confidence, he will be able to generate offense and if Cooley finds his way to the top line in Utah, then his production could explode in his second season.

Tom Wilson, RW, Washington

A player whose fantasy hockey value could even exceed his real hockey value, Wilson offers a rare combination of physical play and the ability to put the puck in the net. He has had eight seasons with at least 200 hits and three 20-goal seasons. Last year, Wilson finished with 18 goals despite scoring on just 10.7 percent of his shots, his lowest rate since 2016-2017. He also had a team-low on-ice shooting percentage of 5.5 percent, the first time since 2014-2015 that he finished under 8.0 percent. Wilson should skate on the Capitals’ top line and with some positive regression in his percentages, should see a clear increase in his value this season.

Taylor Hall, LW, Chicago

Hall only played 10 games last season and is a 32-year-old winger coming off a torn ACL. That lowers expectations greatly, so it leaves room for Hall to surpass those expectations, potentially by a lot. He had a 61-point season for Boston in 2021-2022 and if he gets the opportunity to skate with Connor Bedard on Chicago’s top line, there is a path to Hall scoring like that again. While Hall has rarely been a great finisher, he consistently drives play and creates scoring chances, so Hall lining up with a finisher like Bedard could work well for both players.

William Eklund, LW, San Jose

The Sharks have been making moves to improve and that ought to bode well for Eklund, a young winger who had 15 points in his last 14 games, on his way to 45 points in his first full NHL season. That is barely scratching the surface, because Eklund’s production should continue to climb, and he has the speed and skill to pick up where he left off last season. While he will benefit from a stronger supporting cast in San Jose, the Sharks are hardly going to be over-valued after their miserable 2023-2024 season.

Matthew Knies, LW, Toronto

It is not as though Toronto Maple Leafs players tend to be underrated, but Knies is coming off a rookie season in which he managed 35 points in 80 games. He had ups and downs in his first year as a pro, but he established that he could play a physical game, recording 169 hits plus 23 hits in seven playoff games against Boston. Knies should get a look alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on Toronto’s top line, and that trip controlled nearly 67 percent of goals during five-on-five play when they were on the ice last season. That should put Knies in position for even greater offensive production this season.

Marco Rossi, C, Minnesota

The Wild centre finished second among rookies with 21 goals and fifth with 40 points. His 33 five-on-five points tied fellow Wild centre Joel Eriksson-Ek. The key for Rossi is whether he can secure regular playing time beside Kirill Kaprizov on the Wild’s top line. When they played together last season, Rossi had a five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of 12.1 percent, which was substantially higher than his overall five-on-five mark of 8.1 percent. Sometimes, it’s worth finding a player who can ride the coattails of a great linemate, and Rossi could be that player.

Andre Burakovsky, RW, Seattle

After scoring just 16 points in 49 games last season, Burakovsky should be available late in all formats but there are some reasons to be optimistic that he can bounce back. One reason is that he should score on more than 7.6 percent of his shots on goal, as he did last season. Across his previous nine seasons, Burakovsky had a shooting percentage of 14.4 percent. Compounding that trouble is that Burakovsky had an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.1 percent. His previous low in a season was 8.6 percent, so Burakovsky is one of the leading candidates to experience positive statistical regression this season.

DEFENSE

Minnesota Wild defenseman Brock Faber (7) (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

Mikhail Sergachev, D, Utah

A broken leg ruined Sergachev’s 2023-2024 season, and he finished with 19 points in 34 games for Tampa Bay after breaking through for a career-high 64 points the season before. Now that he has been traded to Utah, Sergachev should have a clearer path to first-unit power play time, where he will compete with Sean Durzi as opposed to Victor Hedman. If Sergachev is playing big minutes, as usual, there is a very good chance that he will exceed 40 points for the second time in his career.

Aaron Ekblad, D, Florida

In the two seasons before last, Ekblad had recorded a total of 39 power play points, so he is quite familiar with the role of quarterbacking the Panthers power play. With the Panthers losing Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to free agency, that opportunity could be back on the table for Ekblad, who had recorded more than half-a-point per game in four straight seasons before taking a step back last season following offseason shoulder surgery. The opportunity is substantially better than what typically awaits a defender who had 18 points in 51 games in 2023-2024.

Brock Faber, D, Minnesota

Expectations are already going to be relatively high for the Calder Trophy runner-up, but his star is still rising in Minnesota. Faber tied for second among rookies with 47 points last season, playing nearly 25 minutes per game. As a second-year player who is expected to handle the point on the Wild power play, Faber should continue to produce offensively, and since he is on his career ascent, there is some variability in just how high that offensive production could get. On top of his points and power play points, Faber also blocked 150 shots last season, so he makes a well-rounded contribution.

Bowen Byram, D, Buffalo

Acquired last season from the Colorado Avalanche in a trade for Casey Mittelstadt, Byram saw his ice time increase by a couple of minutes per game in Buffalo and he finished with career highs of 11 goals and 29 points. While he is not going to supplant Rasmus Dahlin on the Sabres’ top power play unit, Byram should have excellent opportunities otherwise and that should put him in position to score even more. His 28 even strength points last season had him tied for 34th in the league, so Byram ought to be ready to set a new career high in points in his first full season with the Sabres.

Mattias Ekholm, D, Edmonton

It is not like Ekholm is unknown. He played a huge role on the team that lost in the Stanley Cup Final, but he is more than merely a defensive conscience for Evan Bouchard. Ekholm set career highs with 11 goals and 45 points last season, with 41 of those points coming at even strength. He averaged 2.24 shots on goal per game, the third time in his career that he surpassed 2.20 shots per game and recorded a career-high 136 hits. He will continue to play a prominent role for the Oilers and last season that meant Connor McDavid recording 18 points on Ekholm’s 45 total points in 2023-2024.

Cam York, D, Philadelphia

There is risk involved in taking York, who managed just six power play points last season, but he also looks like the best candidate to play the point on Philadelphia’s power play this season. The Flyers’ power play was a disaster last season scoring a league-worst 4.35 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage, so if there is any improvement there (league average was 7.64), then York could reap some of those rewards. There is some risk, either that someone else takes over those minutes or that the Flyers remain terrible on the power play, but York still offers upside.

GOAL

Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Joseph Woll (60) (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Jacob Markstrom, G, New Jersey

While Markstrom is not an unknown quantity by any means, he has an excellent chance to exceed his early rankings. He had an excellent season even though the Calgary Flames did not have a strong season. Markstrom joins a Devils team coming off a down season, but they have the talent to put a strong team in front of Markstrom. The Devils were an above average team aside from goaltending last season, then they added defencemen Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon, so Markstrom is going to be in position to deliver a standout season.

Joseph Woll, G, Toronto

The 26-year-old Maple Leafs goaltender has played a grand total of 36 games in the NHL, but he has a .912 save percentage in those games, which is certainly good enough to get a longer look. He was in fine form when he got hurt last season and struggled a bit upon returning, but he earned wins in Game 5 and 6 against Boston in the playoffs, before getting hurt again. Obviously, he needs to stay healthy, but if he does, Woll can win the starting job in Toronto and that could bring significant value for fantasy managers.

2024 NHL PLAYOFFS: CULLEN – Fantasy Playoff Pool Strategies and Advice

Scott Cullen — Fri, 19 Apr 2024 19:35:19 +0000

Left wing Zach Hyman (18) is congratulated by Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

One of the great features of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is getting involved in playoff pools, the opportunity to start fresh after the conclusion of the regular season.

The challenge for most playoff pools is to get players on teams that will advance the deepest into the postseason, because the more games available to your players, the better chance that they will produce points.

Of course, Connor McDavid will be expected to score more on a per-game basis than Ryan Reaves, but it is a combined source of value, with a player’s production along with their expected games played that leads to playoff pool success.

STRATEGIES FOR PLAYOFF POOLS

Because the playoffs are shorter, with fewer teams, there are different strategies required to build a winning team. A lot of these factors are going to depend on the size of your league and any particular rule requirements.

Sometimes those unique rules can make the league especially fun, but they also have the potential to change priorities and what may or may not be a reasonable approach. Do you need to take a rookie? Does your roster require two defencemen? All of these factors need to be taken into account.

Aside from those unique requirements, though, here are some strategies that tend to pay off when drafting players for a Stanley Cup playoff pool.

DIVERSIFY

While it might be tempting to put all of your eggs in one basket and, say, take six Carolina Hurricanes, there comes a point at which going all-in on one team offers diminishing returns. Assuming that you can’t get every single top scorer from a team that is considered a contender, it will make sense to spread your picks among several teams, at least three or four, generally.

Last season, there were 12 Vegas Golden Knights to record at least 10 points in the playoffs. Full credit to anyone that knew Michael Amadio and Brett Howden would be among the 47 players hitting double digits in playoff points.

Part of the reason to diversify is that you won’t necessarily be dead in the water if one team gets eliminated prematurely. If you picked six Golden Knights last season, for example, it would have likely worked out great. If those six players were Boston Bruins, on the other hand, your team would be done before the end of April.

Because of the uncertainty involved in playoff hockey – upsets happen – spreading your talent among several teams allows your team to remain in contention despite upsets. Furthermore, at some point, it will make sense to consider the top players on a seventh or eighth seed before taking a depth forward on a contender.

The Florida Panthers were supposed to get bounced by the Boston Bruins in the first round of last season’s playoffs, but by the end of the playoffs Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov and Sam Bennett each had at least 15 points. Those picks can make a massive difference in a pool.

While you are diversifying, avoid picking players that will meet in the first round. Unless it is an extraordinarily deep pool that requires some complicated decisions, there is no value to be found in picking players, knowing that you must lose one after the first round.

The aim is to get your players to play as many games as possible, so the players that get eliminated in the first round must have incredible production to make their selection worthwhile.

STACKING

While it makes sense to spread out picks among several teams, there is also great appeal to finding linemates or players that play on the same power play in order to have the chance to score multiple points on the same goal.

Tkachuk, Verhaeghe and Bennett were prime examples of that last season. Tkachuk would have drawn the most appeal, coming off his second straight 100-point season, but adding one of his linemates even later in the draft would have provided incredible value.

Likewise, Chandler Stephenson contributed 20 points for the Vegas Golden Knights on their run to the Stanley Cup last season. It certainly helped to play regularly with Mark Stone, who also had points on 13 of those goals, raising Stephenson’s production to an elite level.

Finding the player who is in close proximity to the star performer can provide better value because they can often be found several rounds later.

It’s not like Zach Hyman is going to fly under the radar, given how much he plays with Connor McDavid and that he scored 54 goals during the regular season, but Jonathan Drouin is in a nice spot alongside Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen in Colorado.

FIRST-ROUND WINNERS

Given the uncertain nature of picking the right teams to advance, there can be value in securing players from the heavier favorites going into the first round of the playoffs.

Now, that didn’t work out if you were on the Boston Bruins last season, but the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes are both strong favorites going into Round One against the Washington Capitals and New York Islanders, respectively. The Edmonton Oilers also have a decided edge in their matchup against the Los Angeles Kings.

Getting players that have a better than average shot of getting through the first round can help give your playoff pool squad some life. If too many players are in series that might as well be coin flips, you could run the risk of landing on the wrong side of those coin flips.

POWER PLAY IMPORTANCE

In the playoffs, goals are not scored so easily, so when a team gets the man advantage, there is a heightened value on those two minutes. Among the 47 players to record at least 10 points in last season’s playoffs, 23 had at least four power play points.

Finding the right defenseman who is quarterbacking a successful power play can have a massive impact.

Last season, Evan Bouchard of the Edmonton Oilers had 17 points in just 12 playoff games and 15 of those points occurred while the Oilers were on the power play! That is an extreme example, but it is the ideal scenario if you happen to hit on the right defenseman on a successful power play.

CONSIDER LATE-SEASON PRODUCTION

A lot of times, overall production can tell the story of a player’s season. Sometimes, though, there is a spike in production that might suggest a player’s value is increasing. Think of Jake Guentzel putting up 25 points (8 G, 17 A) in 17 games for Carolina.

Toronto’s John Tavares had 20 points (10 G, 10 A) in 19 games to finish the season.

Edmonton defenceman Mattias Ekholm recorded 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 19 games after the trade deadline.

Boston’s Pavel Zacha contributed 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 17 games down the stretch.

The Rangers’ Alexis Lafreniere had a breakthrough season, and capped it off with 18 points (10 G, 8 A) after the deadline.

On the other hand, players like Evander Kane, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Max Pacioretty, Matt Duchene, and Martin Necas are among those established scorers that struggled to generate points late in the season. That might make those players easier to acquire in playoff pools, but buyer beware!

WATCH FOR INJURIES

It should go without saying that teams will be less than forthcoming with injury news late in the season and into the playoffs, but it is still important to try to decipher which players are going to be healthy enough to contribute.

Oilers superstar Connor McDavid missed some games late in the season, but there seems little reason to believe that he won’t be ready to go for the playoffs.

Golden Knights captain Mark Stone has been out for nearly two months with a lacerated spleen but has returned to practice and, conveniently, appears that he will be ready for the playoffs. Tomas Hertl was injured when the Golden Knights acquired him from San Jose, but he returned late in the season to chip in four points (2 G, 2 A) in six games for Vegas.

Lightning defenceman Mikhail Sergachev is still recovering from a broken leg and is expected to miss at least the first round of the playoffs.

Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko got a couple of starts in the final week of the season but had missed more than a month of action before that.

With all of that preparation, understand that players are going to get hurt in the playoffs and they are likely going to try to play through it, quite possibly to their own detriment. The takeaway is that luck is going to be required for teams to advance and for players to remain healthy enough to produce, so track as much injury information as possible so that you’re not starting at a deficit.

TARGET PLAYOFF PERFORMERS

In the small samples of a playoff season, any number of players can bust out with unsustainable production.

Consider a player like Tyler Bertuzzi, who only played seven games for Boston in last year’s playoffs, but he still had 10 points (5 G, 5 A). For a player who is skating on Auston Matthews’ wing, Bertuzzi might have some added postseason appeal based on what he did last season.

The Kings’ Viktor Arvidsson missed most of this season, but contributed 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 18 games but he also had seven points (1 G, 6 A) in six games in last year’s playoffs.

Dallas’ Roope Hintz has 28 points (12 G, 16 A) in 25 playoff games across the past three postseasons.

Boston defenceman Charlie McAvoy has accumulated 22 points (1 G, 21 A) in 24 games over the past three playoffs.

Winner of the 2019 Conn Smythe Trophy, Predators centre Ryan O’Reilly is known for his two-way play, but he also has 64 points (24 G, 40 A) in his past 69 playoff games. That’s notably better than his regular season production.

GOALTENDERS MEAN A LOT

The problem with this is that of course goaltenders mean a lot. The issue is figuring out which ones are going to be the difference makers in the playoffs. Good luck knowing ahead of time which ones will be worth the most.

If you knew that Adin Hill and Sergei Bobrovsky would be the standout performers between the pipes in last year’s playoffs, you don’t need anyone’s help to create your playoff fantasy roster.

For the rest, you can look to Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has a strong playoff track record, including a .924 save percentage in 77 games over the past four playoffs. Rangers netminder Igor Shesterkin has a .929 save percentage in 28 games over that span. The Islanders’ Semyon Varlamov has a .922 save percentage in 34 playoff games in that time frame.

Goaltenders matter, not just for points in a playoff pool, but in just determining which team is going to advance. A hot goalie can make a huge difference in a seven-game series, and it is the unpredictability associated with that which makes it worthwhile to hit the playoff pool with a diverse approach.

TAKE A CHANCE

Having given all this advice about preparation and reducing the potential risks, don’t be afraid to swing for the fences with a late-round pick.

In recent years, players like Chandler Stephenson, Ivan Barbashev, Artturi Lehkonen, and Max Domi have had big playoff performances, and they could be found late in playoff drafts. It will be so much more rewarding to hit on one of those players if you’re willing to make a play for potential.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Player Profiles + Team Preview – Scott Cullen, Goaltending – Catherine Silverman — Mon, 09 Oct 2023 19:01:32 +0000

Review: For the first time since 2018-2019, the Lightning did not reach the Stanley Cup Final, losing in the first round to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Tampa Bay had 98 points and was better than average in terms of possession, controlling 51.7% of score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts and 52.2% of expected goals, but better than average also revealed signs of vulnerability. Even so, the Lightning averaged 3.45 goals per game, which ranked eighth, and they allowed 3.10 goals against per game, which ranked 14^th. None of this indicates massive problems, but it does reflect a team that might not be at the same level as when they were making annual trips to the Stanley Cup Final.

What’s Changed? Keeping the Stanley Cup core gets increasingly difficult over time and the Lightning have been forced to make roster decisions based on salary cap commitments. This summer, that meant watching Alex Killorn, Corey Perry, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare leave as free agents while trading Ross Colton and Pat Maroon. Trying to fill those holes inexpensively, Tampa Bay brought in Conor Sheary, Josh Archibald, Luke Glendening, and Logan Brown, which would seem to be a downgrade, but it might also open the door for some prospects to challenge for regular roles, something that has not happened a lot with the Lightning in recent seasons. On defense, veteran Calvin de Haan adds solid depth to a unit that has much more continuity.

What would success look like? After reaching three straight Stanley Cup Finals, winning two, the Lightning are hardly going to settle for something less than a Cup Finals appearance, even if that is increasingly less likely. They still have elite talent, and the core pieces of those Stanley Cup teams. However, every loss of supporting players like Killorn, Colton, and Ondrej Palat the previous summer makes it that much harder for the Lightning to stay on top. The stars are the ones that drive results, but Cup winners have a strong supporting cast and it’s fair to wonder if the Lightning even warrant legitimate Stanley Cup hopes given the quality of their current supporting cast.

What could go wrong? While Tampa Bay appears to have too much talent to flop entirely, with a lot of key players on the north side of 30, there is the possibility that injuries could loom large for Tampa Bay. Certainly, any injury to goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy would be a concern because the Lightning continue the shop the bargain bin for backup goaltenders, landing on Jonas Johansson this season, but if injuries hit Nikita Kucherov, or Steven Stamkos, or Victor Hedman – core players who are all over 30 – that could present a significant challenge. These are first-world hockey problems, worrying about what might happen if more than one of your superstars gets injured.

Top Breakout Candidate: The Lightning do not have unproven players in prime positions so any breakout expectations should be tempered. However, winger Michael Eyssimont is worth watching. He split last season between Winnipeg, San Jose, and Tampa Bay, managing 15 points in 54 games, but he also had 107 hits and 124 shots on goal. That physical play is likely going to earn Eyssimont a regular spot in Tampa Bay’s top nine, but if he starts scoring on more than four percent of his shots, he could really start to provide some value. The opportunity is there for Eyssimont to not only secure a full-time NHL job, but for him to play a substantial role.

Forwards

Nikita Kucherov

Coming off his third career season with more than 100 points, Kucherov is a premier scoring winger, an elite setup man in every respect. His creativity and vision are special, and he plays with a confidence that allows him to make plays that are only possible at the very top end of the league. He also plays with a nastiness that gives him a competitive edge. Since 2017-2018, Kucherov has 495 points in 359 games, his 1.38 points per game ranking second behind only Connor McDavid. He has scored 160 points in 142 career playoff games, so he does not shrink away when the games matter most. As great as Kucherov is, his 11.1% shooting percentage last season was his lowest since his rookie season in 2013-2014 and his defensive play is not exactly going to earn him Selke Trophy votes. When he is firing on all cylinders, though, Kucherov is too much for most defenders to handle. For example, from November 17th through December 17th last season, he tallied 24 points (5 G, 19 A) in just 14 games. While Connor McDavid has to be the favorite to lead the league in scoring in 2023-2024, Kucherov is as worthy of consideration as any other contender for the Art Ross Trophy.

Brayden Point

An established star who has been an integral part of Tampa Bay’s playoff success, Point erupted for the most productive season of his career, scoring 51 goals and 95 points, both of which were career highs. He scored on a career high 21.7% of his shots, while registering a career high 2.87 shots per game, so it is not as though Point is a high-volume shooter, but he has always been a high percentage finisher, scoring on better than 15.0% of his shots in each of the past five seasons. Point has a quick release and makes the most of his role in the bumper position on the Tampa Bay power play, scoring 20 of his 51 goals last season with the man advantage. Playing with Kucherov is obviously a great spot to be for a player who can pull the trigger like Point, and he finished last season with 53 points (28 G, 25 A) in his last 42 games. It is fascinating to see how productive Point has been in the playoffs, with 82 points (40 G, 42 A) in 82 playoff games, and how he has had two seasons with 90-plus points, but then has seasons with point totals in the 50s and 60s. That does suggest some caution when looking ahead for Point, but an 80-point season should be well within his grasp.

Steven Stamkos

At 33 years old, Stamkos continues to churn out points, putting up 84 points (34 G, 50 A) in 81 games last season. He did record 35 points on the power play and his possession numbers during five-on-five play showed signs of slipping. His shot release is one of the most dangerous in the league, but it is reasonable to wonder if there might be some decline on the way given his age and the injuries that he has endured during a career of more than 1,003 games during which he has scored 515 goals. Stamkos had an 11-game point streak in January, during which he had 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 46 shots on goal. If he would keep generating shots like that, the goals would never stop. However, he is still in a position to contribute big offensive numbers and that means that 35 goals and 80-plus points is within a reasonable range. The supporting cast in Tampa Bay is part of the calculation, too. It would be easier for Stamkos to keep producing at an elite level if he always played with Kucherov and Point, but he spent significant time with Alex Killorn and Nick Paul, and Anthony Cirelli, too.

Brandon Hagel

An energy winger in Chicago who has thrived since arriving in Tampa Bay where he has been playing in a scoring role, Hagel set career highs with 30 goals and 64 points last season, and he makes the most of the great opportunity to play with Kucherov and Point. Hagel has good speed in transition and is not shy about getting to the front of the net when the Lightning have control of the puck in the offensive zone. Considering the way that Kucherov distributes the puck, that is a good idea. Because he is not necessarily the play driver on that number one line, Hagel’s production can fluctuate. In the last 16 games of the regular season, he had 14 points (7 G, 7 A), even though he had a seven-game scoreless streak in the midst of that span of games. Hagel is an interesting player to project because he has scored on 16.1% of his shots in his career, which is rather high, but he has played 211 games, which is not a huge sample. On the other hand, he plays mostly with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, so that could contribute to creating better chances and higher shooting percentages. He may not match last season’s output, but 25-30 goals and 55-60 points should still be within range for Hagel.

Anthony Cirelli

At his best, Cirelli is a premier defensive center who can contribute on the offensive end, too. He missed the start of the season due to shoulder surgery and had a 20-game stretch during which he managed just four points, but he also had six points (3 G, 3 A) in six playoff games. Even with some ups and downs during the season, the Lightning outscored opponents 35-22 with Cirelli on the ice for five-on-five play. Cirelli has twice finished in the top five in Selke voting and, when healthy, the 26-year-old is a legitimate contender for the award as the league’s top defensive forward. Strangely enough, given his earned reputation, Cirelli was at least as effective offensively as he was defensively last season, which is not the case when he is giving his peak defensive performance, but starting the season late likely didn’t help matters. Cirelli can reasonably be expected to put up 35-40 points, though there is potential for more. If he is healthy for a full season and play a lot with Stamkos, for example, that might offer better scoring potential.

Nick Paul

Anchoring Tampa Bay’s third line, Paul scored a career high 17 goals and tied his career high with 32 points. He has good size and plays a physical game in addition to winning 53.7% of his faceoffs. While he is a strong defensive presence, Paul’s offensive game is limited, and that puts a ceiling on what kind of impact he can have overall. At the same time, Paul is exactly the kind of big-body physically strong player that the Lightning want on their third line and has played more than 16 minutes per game for three straight seasons, so he has established himself firmly in this role. Paul got off to a sensational start last season, producing 18 points (11 G, 7 A) in his first 23 games, but he followed that up with eight points (5 G, 3 A) in his next 30 games. His straight-ahead game has definite benefits, but it does contribute to his uninspiring offensive numbers. Paul should continue in the same range as his recent seasons, so somewhere between 30 and 35 points is a reasonable expectation.

Tanner Jeannot

After an impressive rookie season in 2021-2022, when he scored 24 goals, Jeannot was one of the most snakebit players in the league last season, finishing with six goals on 107 shots in 76 games. The Lightning paid a steep price to acquire Jeannot and while he managed just four points (1 G, 3 A) in 20 games for Tampa Bay, he also suffered a high ankle sprain late in the season and tried to play through it. He is as strong as an ox and that powerful base is the cornerstone of his game. The 26-year-old winger has recorded 608 hits in the past two seasons, 90 more than any other forward over that period. Jeannot is probably a decent buy-low option going into 2023-2024, because it would be difficult to struggle to that degree again – he had a 38-game goalless drought! – and he is due for percentages to swing back in his favor. A bounce-back season for Jeannot could still mean as few as 30-35 points, which would be a big jump from the 18 points he had in 76 games in 2022-2023, but maybe with good health, he could climb the depth chart and offer more than that.

Conor Sheary

An undersized winger who filled a secondary scoring role in Washington the past two seasons, Sheary could have an opportunity to play a quality complementary role in Tampa Bay. Playing more than 15 minutes per game, Sheary has put up 80 points (34 G, 46 A) in 153 games across the past two years, but his possession numbers have been on the wrong side of the ledger, too. He somehow finished with 37 points despite a massive slump. In a 29-game span from January 8 through March19, Sheary had three points (1 G, 2 A). There may be an opportunity for Sheary to fit in a top-six role in Tampa Bay, which would provide a path to continued offensive production. With quality forwards in Tampa Bay, Sheary should still be able to find his way into the range of 35 to 40 points.

Michael Eyssimont

By the time the puck drops on the 2023-2024 season, Eyssimont will be 27 years old and will have 55 NHL games under his belt, 54 of which came last season when he played for Winnipeg, San Jose, and Tampa Bay, so he is a late bloomer to be sure. What makes Eyssimont more interesting than the typical 15-point winger is that, in his small sample of NHL games, he has shown that he can generate shots. Among players that appeared in at least 500 five-on-five minutes Eyssimont ranked ninth with 11.06 shots per 60 minutes. He scored on just 4.0% of those shots, but generating the shots in the first place creates the possibility that his production could get a boost merely with better luck around the net. While he does not have notable size, he plays a physical game and recorded 107 hits in 54 games, so he has a way to earn his spot in the lineup. Although Eyssimont does not have a lot of NHL experience, he has a legit chance to stick in Tampa Bay’s top nine. He has 51 points in 67 AHL games over the past two seasons and could have a chance to produce 25-30 points as a full-time NHLer.

Defense

Victor Hedman

For the first time since 2015-2016, Hedman was not a finalist for the Norris Trophy, and it was justified because his defensive play had slipped compared to previous years. Hedman was still a positive influence on the Lightning but was not the dominant play driving force that had been. He has such rare physical tools, to be able to skate and handle the puck at his size, that Hedman could very easily return to Norris Trophy form, but it bears watching. He is 32 years old and while he is far from finished, it is possible that there is some decline from the top tier elite status that he has been occupying for so long. 2022-2023 was the first time in Hedman’s career that the Lightning fared better in terms of shot attempts when he was off the ice. It was the second time in the past three seasons that the Lightning were better when judged by expected goals with Hedman off the ice. For all of those questions, it can’t be ignored that Hedman has been an elite defender for a long time, so it would be premature to write him off. Losing power play time to Mikhail Sergachev doesn’t help Hedman’s output, but he remains capable of producing 55-60 points.

Mikhail Sergachev

With Hedman’s production slipping, Sergachev stepped up and became the quarterback on the first power play unit for Tampa Bay, scoring 27 of his career-high 64 points with the man advantage. At 25 years old, Sergachev is in his prime, and played a career-high 23:49 per game last season. Not only is he a strong skater who can handle the puck and unleash a heavy shot from the point, but he is sturdy and physical. Sergachev was one of 22 defensemen to record more than 125 hits and 125 blocked shots last season. From that group, Darnell Nurse and Moritz Seider were the only ones with more than 40 points and Sergachev was 20 points clear of both. He finished the season with a scoring flourish, producing 22 points (3 G, 19 A) with 45 shots on goal in his last 18 games. If he is going to put up those numbers, he will continue to hold greater responsibility on the Tampa Bay blueline. Since he is in his prime and did not benefit from lofty percentages last season, another 60-point campaign is a reasonable target for Sergachev.

Nick Perbix

A sixth-round pick who played at St. Cloud State, Perbix was not highly touted, and the right-shot defender landed in the NHL as a 24-year-old rookie last season. From the moment he arrived, though, he did not look out of place and delivered quality third-pair minutes. He is a strong passer who moves the puck up the ice and, generally, the Lightning had success with Perbix on the ice, out-shooting and outscoring the opposition during five-on-five play. The next step is to see if he can handle more responsibility, potentially into a top-four role on the Tampa Bay blueline. With more ice time, in a full season, Perbix could see his point production jump to the range of 25 to 30 points, but he has such a limited track record that he might end up on the third pairing and unlikely to even match last season’s production.

Erik Cernak

A 26-year-old thumper on the Tampa Bay defense, Cernak recorded a career-high 209 hits then got knocked out in the first game of the playoffs thanks to a high hit by Maple Leafs winger Michael Bunting. Cernak has limitations with the puck on his stick, but he is a strong skater and plays such a hard, competitive game that he still offers plenty of value in a top-four shutdown role and has consistently played more than 19 minutes per game throughout his career. One other thing that has been a consistent factor in Cernak’s career is injuries. He played a career-high 70 games last season, so his hard play comes with a price, and while that tends to happen to most physical defensemen, it is not so common for a defenseman in his mid-20s to be sidelined as frequently as Cernak. While he has yet to record a 20-point season in the NHL, Cernak has a chance to get there if he stays healthy. Hits and, to a lesser degree, blocked shots are the counting stats that are going to enhance Cernak’s value.

Goaltending

Andrei Vasilevskiy

The Andrei Vasilevskiy story, by this point in his career, is very much rinse-and-repeat. Vasilevskiy might not be the league’s hottest topic anymore, with shiny new names circulating the Vezina conversation alongside him each year and younger franchises (including one just downstate from Tampa in metro Miami) contending for the cup, but he remains one of the top ten goaltenders year-over-year with no signs of slowing down. It’s not a matter of if he’ll do well, but how well he’ll do; he might not win the Vezina or the Cup, but he’ll make the playoffs and keep his team in games with very little evidence that he’ll do anything to disappoint.

The Lightning almost certainly know that they’ll need to do something about their goaltending situation at some point in the coming years, but they also seem to know that there’s no rush – so they seem content to ride with Vasilevskiy while prospect Hugo Alnefelt develops in the AHL. Their only change this off-season was to move on from a now-underperforming Brian Elliott as the rarely-used number two, instead signing Jonas Johansson as their number two. That could be a sign that Alnefelt is being prepped to get his NHL look, given how poorly Johansson has performed at the NHL level in the past few seasons. But ultimately, there’s not much about Tampa’s upcoming season that warrants discussion beyond reiterating that Vasilevskiy is still their best shot at success; with his dynamic drives and quick hands, the only thing that could slow the starter down is physical fatigue. At some point, he has to hit a wall – but he hasn’t yet, so Tampa seems content to address that problem when it pops up down the road.

Projected starts: 65-70

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Did the Leafs add enough to finally get over the first-round playoff hump?

Scott Cullen — Fri, 14 Apr 2023 16:05:34 +0000

TAMPA, FL - APRIL 11: Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Brandon Hagel (38) and Toronto Maple Leafs right wing William Nylander (88) during the NHL Hockey match between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs on April 11th 2023 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)

For the second straight season there is a solid case to be made that the Toronto Maple Leafs are better than the Tampa Bay Lightning. Not by a lot, necessarily, but the Maple Leafs finished higher in the standings, with a better goal differential, and superior puck possession numbers.

Is that going to be enough for the Maple Leafs to finally get over the first-round playoff hump for the first time since 2003-2004?

Forwards

Auston Matthews battled through a wrist injury and still finished with 40 goals, after scoring 60 goals last season. He seemed to be in fine form in the latter stages of the year, putting up 14 goals and 28 points with 114 shots on goal in his last 22 games. If the Leafs are going to win the series, they will need Matthews and Mitch Marner to elevate their play for the postseason. Both have managed 33 points in 39 career playoff contests and that’s respectable, but Toronto needs even more from their star forwards. It is fair to wonder about the Leafs’ scoring depth. William Nylander had his first 40-goal season and John Tavares remains productive, but there is a thinner cast of productive forwards behind the Big Four.

Ryan O’Reilly adds something to the lineup when healthy, and both Calle Jarnkrok and Michael Bunting have proven to be useful complementary pieces, but someone in the supporting cast needs to step up. Maybe it will be rookie Matthew Knies, who has recorded one assist in three games since joining the Leafs after his University of Minnesota season ended with a loss in the national championship game.

Tampa Bay has elite talent with a track record of playoff success. Nikita Kucherov has 93 points over the past three postseasons, most in the league by a long shot. Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon ranks second with 64 and Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point ranks third with 61. Steven Stamkos has 33 points in 47 games across the past three playoffs, missing most of the 2019-2020 Stanley Cup run. With three straight trips to the Final, Tampa Bay has received ample secondary scoring.

Alex Killorn and Anthony Cirelli have been contributors throughout Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup runs while Ross Colton, Brandon Hagel, Nick Paul, and Corey Perry have joined the fray more recently. The expectation was that Tanner Jeannot might offer some more toughness and scoring depth after he was acquired from Nashville, but a late season lower-body injury could prevent him from being ready for the start of the playoffs.

Defense

For all of the changes that the Maple Leafs have made to their blueline in recent seasons, there are still going to be questions about how strong this group is heading into the playoffs. Toronto ranks seventh in shots against and 11th in expected goals against per 60 minutes, but the results since the trade deadline are not quite as encouraging. Since adding Jake McCabe, Luke Schenn, and Erik Gustafsson, the Leafs rank 18^th and 20^th, respectively, in those categories. McCabe and T.J. Brodie have formed an effective shutdown pair while Mark Giordano and Justin Holl are competent, but there are legitimate concerns about the performance of Morgan Rielly, whose ice time has dropped under 20 minutes per game over the past month, and Luke Schenn, who has been getting caved in consistently since returning to Toronto. Timothy Liljegren offers a steady alternative, but only if head coach Sheldon Keefe includes him in the lineup.

When the Lightning have been making their runs to the Stanley Cup Final, they have had a strong defensive record and this season has revealed some vulnerability on that front, with higher-than-average rates of shots and expected goals against. Mikhail Sergachev busted out with the best season of his career, scoring 64 points while playing nearly 24 minutes per game.

For the first time in a long time Victor Hedman was not a standout on the Tampa Bay blueline, showing more defensive vulnerability, but he has produced 59 points in 71 games during Tampa Bay’s last three playoff runs, so he could easily be a difference maker once again. Erik Cernak and Ian Cole are effective shot suppressors while Nicklaus Perbix and Darren Raddysh have been seeing more regular action than Zach Bogosian. Overall, though, this group represents an area of legitimate concern for Tampa Bay.

Goaltending

With Matt Murray injured, Toronto has a lot riding on Ilya Samsonov, a 26-year-old who had the best season of his career, posting a .919 save percentage while starting a career-high 40 games. However, he has modest playoff experience, with just one win in seven career postseason starts. Any goaltender that achieves playoff success has to start somewhere.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is the standard bearer among active goaltenders for playoff performance. Not only has he started 71 games in the past three postseasons, but he has delivered a .928 save percentage, which is tops among goaltenders to appear in at least 10 games. With Tampa Bay’s suspect defense, the Lightning will need an epic performance from the 2021 Conn Smythe Trophy winner. That is not out of the question, but it is the first time in a while that Tampa Bay has been so dependent on its star netminder.

Special Teams

Given the top tier talent on these teams, it comes as no surprise that both clubs have fared well with the man advantage. Toronto ranks fourth with 9.25 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play and Tampa Bay is close behind in fifth with 9.10 goals per 60.

Maple Leafs captain John Tavares tallied 18 of his 36 goals on the power play and Auston Matthews added 13. Tampa Bay’s top triggermen on the power play were Brayden Point, who scored 20 of his 51 goals with the man advantage, and Steven Stamkos, who added 14.

Toronto’s penalty killing is a strength, ranking fifth with 5.72 goals against per 60 minutes during four-on-five play, thanks largely to allowing the lowest rate of high danger shot attempts in those circumstances. That does offer Toronto an edge over Tampa Bay, which ranks 15^th with 7.21 goals against per 60 during four-on-five play.

Conclusion

The Maple Leafs were right there with the Lightning in last year’s playoff matchup, ultimately losing in Game 7, but this year’s version of the Lightning is not quite as formidable. There is the possibility that the Lightning can just flip the postseason switch and be ready for another Stanley Cup run, but it looks like Tampa Bay has slipped enough that the Maple Leafs can finally earn a first-round victory. Maple Leafs in 6.

NHL: SZNAJDER – Defenseman moved at the NHL deadline – Puck-movers, retrievers and roster reshuffling

Corey Sznajder — Fri, 10 Mar 2023 15:52:26 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 01: Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Mattias Ekholm (14) in his first game as an Oilers defends his zone in the first period of the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Toronto Maple Leads on March 1, 2023 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

The trade deadline always brings out some interesting team philosophies. Sometimes it’s as simple as getting the best player available like the Devils getting Timo Meier or Toronto adding Ryan O’Reilly with the Blues falling out of the playoff race early. Then there’s those moves around the margins that look like depth adds at first glance but can really payoff in the post-season. Vegas adding Ivan Barbashev to bolster their forward depth being a good example of that.

It's always interesting to see which players teams target at the deadline and what skillsets they value heading into a playoff run. This is especially true with defensemen, which is probably the biggest game of “choose your own adventure” in hockey. Good team defense is more about having all five players dialed in and understanding their assignments, but the two blue liners are always going to shoulder more of the burden even if it’s not always their fault. This is where teams run into problems at the deadline.

Everyone wants to add defensemen, but there’s a bigger risk of not getting what you bargained for when you’re taking someone from a different system and making him play 20+ minutes a night in high leverage situations. Sometimes you get situations like Ben Chiarot on the Florida Panthers last year, where a defenseman who is more suited to patrol the front of the net and deliver hits is playing in a system where most of the game is played off the rush. It becomes fitting a square peg into a round hole and becomes a part of a roster you have to work around instead of playing to your strengths. Compare that to Tampa Bay getting David Savard two years ago, who was mostly asked to kill penalties and play lower in the lineup with Mikhail Sergachev as his safety valve, and it’s a much more natural situation where a player with a specific skillset is filling a certain role.

It’s tough to avoid these pitfalls because everyone looks for different skillsets in defensemen and it becomes more difficult the fill gaps higher in the lineup. A guy who can make a beautiful stretch pass and put up points on the power play might not be suited to play over 20 minutes a night against top lines while the defender who hits hard but struggles to move the puck might hinder your team’s offense. A defender who might be good at defending zone entries could be benefitting from a system that has a tight neutral zone forecheck or help from forwards. It becomes a complicated puzzle that can either win or cost you a playoff series.

Something that most defensemen eventually have to do, though is retrieve the puck. Whether it’s chasing a dump-in, getting it off the wall or freeing the puck for a teammate, clean puck retrievals are how most games are decided. In this study looking at every goal scored in the 2021-22 season, about 65% of five-on-five goals scored off the rush started in the defensive zone, with 32.5% coming off a retrieval against a forecheck. In addition to that, 42% of all five-on-five goals last year were scored off an offensive zone turnover or a retrieval, which shows the importance in this part of the game. Even if you’re not starting a rush, negating a forecheck or flipping possession can be just as important, especially with defending the lead.

Defensemen are always going to be heavily involved in this part of the game regardless of their skillset and it’s where chemistry and complementary skillsets can really make a difference. One defenseman can take the hit while the other makes the play, or one can stand up at the blue line while the other goes back to clear the puck. We can start to see the value of things like “making a good first pass” or “making the forwards job easier.” Few players demonstrate this better than Edmonton Oilers deadline pickup Matthias Ekholm:

A mainstay in Nashville for years, he’s had a pretty thankless role of soaking up some of the tougher minutes so that Roman Josi can spend as much time as possible way from forecheck pressure and in the offensive zone. He’s part of the newer wave of shutdown defensemen who use their skating, their reach and their agility to kill plays before they start (although he will block a lot of shots if he has to). He is one of the few that’s the complete package, because he could put up zero points and still bring you some value with how strong he is along the wall with killing plays.

The first clip shows what the Oilers are probably going to see the most reward from. Ekholm’s very good at taking the puck from a dead stop and making long, quick passes out of the zone to either lead the rush or flip possession. It might have more of a reward in Edmonton with McDavid on the receiving end of those passes than Nashville’s forward corps, so it’s easy to see the potential upside here. The other side of this is how good he is at drawing defenders to him and getting rid of the puck right as they’re about to check him. Using that strong upper-body to absorb contact and bait defenders into being over-aggressive on the forecheck.

The puck skill, however, is where the Oilers can reap the most value out of him. Their blue line isn’t bad but doesn’t have a lot of great passers out of the zone. This is where Ekholm might be able to add a dimension to the Oilers offense. Everyone knows how good McDavid is, but Ekholm getting him the puck could make it less of a one-man show and more of a quick-strike. Whether it can work in the playoffs remains to be seen, but Ekholm should be able to help Edmonton’s top guns catch other teams off line changes and work together in the offensive zone a little more than they do now. Tyson Barrie gave them some of that but was limited to a power play specialist after a while because he’s best as the second player in the rush rather than the one starting it.

Here we see both sides of what Ekholm can do for Edmonton’s transition game. He’s aggressive with how he defends the blue line, using his skates and his reach to kill plays and he’s very good at getting back to retrieve the puck himself to start the rush. This is a skill the Oilers don’t really have on their blue line right now and it’s not particularly easy to find either. The other thing is how he can cover for his partner struggling to get the puck out of the zone, in this case he rescues a botched exit from young Phillip Broberg to help the Oilers get out of the zone cleanly. He’s capable of playing both sides and making plays from awkward positions, so you can see how this was a perfect fit for Edmonton. Ekholm is going to be asked to stay back more times than not, but he’s such a good passer and a smart player that it shouldn’t negate his skillset.

With Ekholm, the fit with the Oilers is clear. It’s not as easy with some other teams, namely the Toronto Maple Leafs who completely shuffled the deck on their blue line. Out goes Rasmus Sandin, in comes Luke Schenn, Jake McCabe and Erik Gustafsson. Toronto has been trying to find a winning formula in the playoffs for ages and they are no short of options with nine defensemen currently on the roster. The big move is essentially replacing Sandin with McCabe, as Schenn and Gustafsson are likely just role players for now (although it’s nice to have NHLers waiting in the wings if injuries strike).

Players like McCabe are probably the toughest to get a read on if you don’t watch them every night. He has the reputation as a minute-eater, spending most of his career playing a top-four role on bad Buffalo and Chicago teams but he’s one of those players that’s more like a Rorschach Test for hockey fans because he spends so much time in his own zone. Some appreciate his skill while others focus on the mistakes. What is interesting is Leafs GM Kyle Dubas mentioned his puck-moving as a skill they valued in addition to his competitiveness. Basically, filling the Jake Muzzin role of a sizeable defenseman who isn’t a butcher with the puck.

Every team could use a player like that in theory, but what do the puck retrieval stats say and how does it work in the context of the Leaf’s defense?

So, this kind of backs up what Dubas is saying. McCabe’s very capable with the puck, he just struggled when he had to be the one going back to retrieve it. He was also pretty good at mitigating damage off the rush on a bad Chicago team, so that should bode well. This is also where he’s stood out the most in his first couple of games with the Leafs and you can see some of the qualities Dubas talked about.

McCabe isn’t going to totally kill the play when the rush is happening at full speed, but he’s engaging enough to disrupt Grade A scoring chances. The puck has to go through a couple of layers before it gets to the net and the Toronto goalies are only going to have to square up to one shot if he plays everything perfectly. You can also see him going for contact whenever a forward touches the puck and always looking for something to do to make the cycle harder instead of just patrolling the front of the net. The only downside is that Brodie might have to shoulder the burden with getting to pucks if McCabe is always going to be chasing the play, but it’s only been a few games so he should have time to adapt.

It’s an interesting playstyle for a defenseman more known for blocking shots because he’s more of the secondary/support mold than someone who’s going to be the first one back to take a hit. How he fits into Toronto’s depth chart is a little more encouraging.

If there’s a positive here, it’s that Toronto isn’t short on defenseman who can retrieve the puck. Brodie has been one of the better players in the league at this for most of his career and this is probably where McCabe ends up slotting long-term. Whether it’s a true shutdown pair or a duo that’s just soaking up defensive minutes remains to be seen, but the complementary skillsets appear to be there on paper. The rest of the lineup might be a bit of trial and error for Toronto. It seems like they’re putting a lot of faith in Justin Holl to continue being Morgan Rielly’s safety valve as Timothy Liljegren and Mark Giordano give them some decent puck-moving on the third pair. McCabe-Brodie could end up playing more of a factor than they pictured in another month.

What’s interesting is that Sandin brought some of the same qualities to the Leafs, but Toronto might value McCabe’s size and tenacity more in the playoffs. Teams are looking for whatever edge they can in the playoffs and the Leafs top priority seemed to be focused around building a pure shutdown pair with some puck-moving capabilities. They lose some passing skill with Sandin leaving, but maybe they saw that as a luxury and wanted more of an aggressive defender who can make a quick 10–15-foot pass instead than someone who is going to skate his way out of trouble. Whether or not this pays off depends if McCabe’s struggles in retrieving pucks is more from playing on a bad Chicago team than his own skill deteriorating. There’s also some value in minimizing damage when you can’t get to pucks or are up against a tough forecheck. That seems to be where McCabe will have the most value.

Retrievals are one area of the game you can’t really hide from, so it will be interesting to see how this works in action come April. Toronto is putting a lot of faith in blending complementary skillsets together without one star and their postseason fate is going to heavily depend on how their defense holds up in this area.

Stats are from allthreezones.com

NHL:CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Slow Starters Rounding into Form, Rookies Stepping into Spotlight

Scott Cullen — Sat, 19 Nov 2022 14:03:38 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, slow starters that are rounding back into form, including Ryan O’Reilly, Logan Couture, and Tomas Tatar, plus rookies stepping into the spotlight – Jake Sanderson, Jusso Parssinen, Jonatan Berggren and more!

OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 22: Ottawa Senators Defenceman Jake Sanderson (85) before a face-off during third period National Hockey League action between the Arizona Coyotes and Ottawa Senators on October 22, 2022, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

#1 St. Louis Blues center Ryan O’Reilly is going to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, so if the Blues are not in the playoff picture, he could be a prime trade candidate. After a miserable start to the season, during which he scored one goal and zero assists through 10 games, O’Reilly started to find his game again. Skating on a line with Brandon Saad and Josh Leivo, O’Reilly has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 13 shots on goal in the past six games. While I don’t normally tout a player of O’Reilly’s caliber, his slow start suddenly made him available in plenty of leagues, so he now offers value on the fantasy waiver wire.

#2 After managing 35 points (17 G, 18 A) in 79 games over the past two seasons, Pittsburgh Penguins left winger Jason Zucker came into this season healthy and ready to regain a scoring role. The 30-year-old winger has put up 14 points (4 G, 10 A) and 39 shots on goal in 15 games, earning a role alongside Evgeni Malkin on Pittsburgh’s second line. A five-time 20-goal scorer, a healthy Zucker offers secondary scoring that the Penguins need if they are going to be a playoff team.

#3 San Jose Sharks captain Logan Couture started slowly this season, with four points (2 G, 2 A) and 12 shots on goal in nine games, but he has picked up his production since then. In the past 10 games, Couture has contributed 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 25 shots on goal. He now has Alexander Barabanov and Matt Nieto skating on his wings, which might limit Couture’s offensive potential, but he is also getting first unit power play time for the Sharks.

#4 An injury to Thomas Chabot has accelerated the development path for Ottawa Senators rookie defenseman Jake Sanderson. The fifth pick in the 2020 Draft, Sanderson has eight assists and 23 shots on goal in the past 12 games. In two games since Chabot was injured, Sanderson is averaging more than 25 minutes of ice time per game and has moved to Ottawa’s top power play unit.

#5 A seventh-round pick of the Nashville Predators in 2019, Juuso Parssinen has developed quickly. In the past two seasons, Parssinen produced 74 points (17 G, 57 A) in 96 regular season games, adding 20 points (5 G, 15 A) in 31 playoff games for TPS in Finland. He appeared in the AHL playoffs last season and started this season with nine points (2 G, 7 A) in 10 games for the Milwaukee Admirals to earn his promotion to the NHL. Parssinen is not interested in returning to the AHL, it seems, as the 21-year-old center has three goals and one assist in his first three NHL games. He is not getting eased into the NHL, either, skating on Nashville’s top line, with Filip Forsberg and Mikael Granlund on the wings, as well as landing a spot on the Predators’ top power play unit.

#6 Drafted early in the second round of the 2018 Draft by the Detroit Red Wings, Jonatan Berggren had been steadily progressing towards the NHL. He put up 45 points (12 G, 33 A) in 49 games for Skelleftea in Sweden during the 2020-2021 season and had 64 points (21 G, 43 A) as an AHL rookie last season. After starting this season with seven points (4 G, 3 A) in seven games, Berggren earned his call to the National Hockey League, and he has contributed three points (1 G, 2 A) in his first four games. Berggren does not have a huge role with the Wings, yet, but he has recently moved up the depth chart to skate with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, potentially a good opportunity for a rookie winger to put up some points.

#7 With Patrik Laine out of the Columbus Blue Jackets lineup due to a sprained ankle, Emil Bemstrom has stepped into Laine’s role on the first line and top power play unit. A fourth-round pick in 2017, Bemstrom had 19 goals and 17 assists in 136 career NHL games prior to this season. He has been renowned for his shot but does not have the all-around game to earn him a consistent place in the lineup. When injuries hit the Blue Jackets, though, Bemstrom’s 14 points (7 G, 7 A) in 10 AHL games had him ready for a call-up and, at least in the short term, he is in a position to score. He is apparently dealing with an injury, that left him questionable for Thursday’s win against Montreal, but opportunity is knocking for Bemstrom if he can stay in the lineup.

#8 Both Nikolaj Ehlers and Mason Appleton are injured for the Winnipeg Jets, so veteran Sam Gagner has moved up the depth chart to join Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele on the top line. Gagner has mostly been playing a depth role but has a couple of assists while averaging more than 18 minutes of ice time per game in the past two contests.

#9 Moving to Seattle in the expansion draft, defenseman Vince Dunn has taken on a bigger role in his second season with the Kraken. He is playing more than 23 minutes per game and has picked up his offensive pace with eight points (2 G, 6 A) and 19 shots on goal in the past 11 games. Dunn tied a career high with 35 points last season, but he is capable of scoring more and with the Kraken improving as a team, there ought to be more chances for Dunn to boost his point totals.

#10 New Jersey Devils winger Tomas Tatar opened the season with zero points in five games. He has put up 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 25 shots on goal in 12 games since. With Ondrej Palat injured, Tatar has more security in New Jersey’s top six and, right now, has a good thing going alongside Nico Hischier and rookie Fabian Zetterlund.

#11 Calgary Flames defenseman Noah Hanifin busted out last season, scoring a career high 48 points (10 G, 38 A). He followed that up by not recording a point through his first eight games this season, but that has turned around. Not only does Hanifin have five points (1 G, 4 A) in the past seven games, but he has put 24 shots on goal and defensemen that can put more than three shots on goal per game are rare commodities. Hanifin is one of 13 defensemen averaging at least three shots on goal per game this season.

#12 Buffalo Sabres goaltender Eric Comrie is set to miss multiple weeks with a lower-body injury, prompting the Sabres to recall 23-year-old goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen from Rochester of the American Hockey League. Luukkonen has a .895 save percentage in 69 career AHL games, which does not exactly jump off the page, but he also has a .913 save percentage in 13 NHL appearances. With Comrie out, the Sabres can split time between veteran Craig Anderson and Luukkonen, a decent audition to see how close he is to being ready for the NHL. Comrie had a .887 save percentage in 11 games for the Sabres, not an ideal beginning to his opportunity to be a starting goaltender.

#13 Minnesota Wild netminder Marc-Andre Fleury on the injured list due to an upper-body injury, backup Filip Gustavsson is looking at more consistent playing time for the Wild. The 24-year-old Gustavsson, who was acquired in a trade for Cam Talbot before the start of the season, has a .901 save percentage in six games this season, .904 in 33 career NHL games.

#14 The Philadelphia Flyers are dealing with a number of injuries up front and that has helped create an opportunity for 23-year-old right winger Owen Tippett to play a prominent role. Tippett is not afraid to put pucks on net and in his past six games, he has produced five points (2 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal, while averaging more than 18 minutes of ice time per game. A highly touted scorer coming out of junior, it never really clicked for Tippett in Florida, but the rebuilding Flyers can offer a better situation for his development and Tippett is making the most of it.

#15 Adam Ruzicka did not play in October, a healthy scratch for the Calgary Flames, and then played just 5:33 in his first game of the season. An injury to Jonathan Huberdeau opened up an opportunity for Ruzicka to play and he has made the most of it, taking the left-wing spot on the top line for the Flames. In the past five games, Ruzicka has chipped in five points (2 G, 3 A) and nine shots on goal. He is always at risk of falling out of the lineup but keep an eye on him. If he continues to produce, Ruzicka might just force his way into being a regular in the Flames lineup.

#16 Injuries have decimated the blueline for the Columbus Blue Jackets and that prompted the team to promote 24-year-old Marcus Bjork. A 6-foot-3 right shot defenseman Bjork had five points (2 G, 3 A) in 11 AHL games when he got the call. He has two points (1 G, 1 A) and five shots on goal in his first three NHL games, and he is now quarterbacking Columbus’ top power play unit.

#17 One of the stats to track when trying to predict future goal-scoring rates is how many shot attempts a player is getting. The forward leaders in five-on-five shot attempts per 60 minutes, minimum 100 minutes, are Tage Thompson (24.7), Timo Meier (23.9), David Pastrnak (23.2), Auston Matthews (21.5), and the recently injured Evander Kane (20.8). Just outside the Top 5? Denis Malgin (20.8) and Nazem Kadri (20.8). There might have been some sentiment coming into the season that Thompson was going to be a flop after his breakout season in 2021-2022, but if he is generating this many shots, the goals are going to follow. Thompson has 11 goals and 53 shots on goal in the past 10 games.

#18 When it comes to defensemen, the leaders in five-on-five shot attempts per 60 minutes are Brent Burns (21.1), Michael Stone (20.8), John Carlson (19.9), Dougie Hamilton (19.7), and Roman Josi (17.5). Stone is known for his heavy shot from the point, but he does not have quite the same offensive pedigree as the other leaders in this category.

#19 As for the defensemen that are shooting most on the power play, here are the defense leaders in shot attempts per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, minimum of 20 minutes at five-on-four: Aaron Ekblad (38.5), Miro Heiskanen (35.8), Noah Dobson (34.7), Jacob Trouba (32.0), and John Klingberg (31.9).

The defensemen that are most reluctant to shoot on the power play, or just not getting the opportunities, minimum 20 minutes of five-on-four play: Chris Wideman (7.0), Juuso Valimaki (7.5), Rasmus Sandin (8.0), Owen Power (8.3), and Mikhail Sergachev (8.4).

#20 The players that have exceeded expected goals by the widest margin early in the season (and are likely due to run into some goal-scoring regression): Erik Karlsson (+8.05), Nick Suzuki (+7.39), Connor McDavid (7.33), Bo Horvat (6.26), Mark Scheifele (5.64), and J.T. Miller (5.61).

On other end of the spectrum, these are the players with the largest deficit of goals relative to expected goals (and are probably due for more pucks to go in the net): Mathew Barzal (-5.49), Matthew Tkachuk (-5.26), Erik Haula (-4.81), Oliver Bjorkstrand (-4.41), Sam Reinhart (-3.73), and Stefan Noesen (-3.72).

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

CULLEN: 20 Fantasy Points – Physical Forwards Providing Offense, More Players Landing Bigger Roles Early in the Season

Scott Cullen — Fri, 04 Nov 2022 19:28:40 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, physical forwards like Nick Paul and Lawson Crouse who are scoring enough to offer fantasy value, smaller wingers like Jeff Skinner and Travis Konecny starting strong, and some more players landing bigger roles early in the season.

SAN JOSE, CA - OCTOBER 29: Tampa Bay Lightning Defenceman Mikhail Sergachev (98) and Left Wing Nicholas Paul (20) take positions shoulder to shoulder for a faceoff during the third period of a regular season NHL hockey game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the San Jose Sharks on October 29, 2022, at SAP Center, in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Tony Ding/Icon Sportswire)

#1 When the Tampa Bay Lightning traded for Nick Paul last season, he had proven himself to be a reliable checking forward, capable of playing both wing and center. He has started to produce more offensively in Tampa Bay. He scored 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in 21 regular-season games last season before adding nine points (5 G, 4 A) in 23 playoff games. With Anthony Cirelli out to start the season, Paul has responded to an increased role. He is playing more than 18 minutes per game and a goal against Carolina on Thursday was Paul’s seventh point (3 G, 4 A) in his past six games. Through 11 games, Paul also has 19 hits and 13 blocked shots, so he is a category stuffer.

#2 For all of the problems in Arizona, it does mean that left winger Lawson Crouse can count on playing a significant role for the Coyotes. The 6-foot-4 winger has 29 hits in 10 games, to go with five goals and seven points. Crouse had the first 20-goal season of his career last season but will need to increase his shot output if he is going to continue scoring at this rate because his 26.3% shooting percentage is not going to be sustainable over a full season.

#3 Consistency can be elusive for Buffalo Sabres winger Jeff Skinner, so it was not a huge surprise when, after he had zero goals and two assists in six games, he was more readily available on the waiver wire in fantasy leagues. In the past four games, Skinner has eight points (2 G, 6 A) and continues to have success skating on a line with Tage Thompson. One thing to watch, though: Skinner has just 2.50 shots on goal per game, which would be only the second time in the past 12 seasons that he has averaged less than three shots on goal per game.

#4 While he came into the spotlight this week for jousting with Toronto Maple Leafs sniper Auston Matthews, Philadelphia Flyers right winger Travis Konecny is taking a leadership role on a rebuilding Flyers team. Konecny has produced 11 points (4 G, 7 A) with 33 shots on goal through 10 games and he is playing a ton – more than 20 minutes per game is a significant jump from last season’s career high of 17:37 per game.

#5 With Aaron Ekblad out of the lineup for the Florida Panthers, there is going to be some expectation that others on the Panthers blueline can step up to fill the void. Gustav Forsling is one option and Brandon Montour is another. Montour is playing more than 26 minutes per game and has put up eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 30 shots on goal in nine games.

#6 An unheralded type on the Washington Capitals blueline, Nick Jensen has not only contributed seven points (1 G, 6 A) in 12 games, but he has17 hits and 21 blocked shots, which provides good value for fantasy purposes. Jensen had a career-high 21 points last season, so his offensive contributions are not likely to be significant, but he is averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game, a threshold he has not maintained over a full season in his NHL career.

#7 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand scored in the first game of the season and has yet to light the lamp since. That does not mean that he is not contributing, however. After picking up an assist in Thursday’s 4-0 win at Minnesota, Bjorkstrand has seven points (1 G, 6 A) and 45 shots on goal in 12 games. The Kraken are getting 59.1% of 5v5 shot attempts when Bjorkstrand is on the ice, so he is probably a decent buy-low candidate for fantasy managers.

#8 In the summer, the Seattle Kraken did not give a qualifying offer to winger Daniel Sprong, a 25-year-old who has shown that he can put the puck in the net but has not had a well-rounded enough game to secure his spot in the lineup. Ultimately, Sprong re-signed in Seattle, and he has very effective in a limited role for the Kraken. In six games, while playing less than 11 minutes per game, Sprong has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal. He is still not getting enough ice time to like his long-term value but if Sprong continues to produce, he could start to earn a bigger role with the Kraken.

#9 New York Islanders center Jean-Gabriel Pageau scored his first goal of the season in Thursday’s 5-2 win over the slumping St. Louis Blues. Pageau has six points (1 G, 5 A) in 11 games, but has fantasy appeal because he is a hitter. He has 38 hits in 11 games, which puts him in rare company. Noel Acciari, 4.0 hits per game, and Vincent Trocheck, with 3.5 hits per game, are the only centers with more hits per game than Pageau (3.45).

#10 Winnipeg Jets center Adam Lowry is more known for his physical play. After recording six hits against Montreal on Thursday, he now has 27 hits through 10 games. Lowry also has six points (2 G, 4 A) in 10 games. He has never had a 30-point season in his NHL career, so don’t bank on that production continuing, but it is worth keeping an eye on him.

#11 File this name away for a little later in the season. 23-year-old Devils winger Fabian Zetterlund has a couple of points (1 G, 1 A) in six games, but he is performing well alongside Nico Hischier and Tomas Tatar, controlling 66.7% of expected goals during 5-on-5 play. Zetterlund is a sturdy winger who had 52 points (24 G, 28 A) in 58 AHL games for Binghamton last season. Forwards with the highest rate of individual expected goals during 5-on-5 play (minimum 50 minutes): Stefan Noesen (2.11), Zach Parise (2.04), Zach Hyman (1.64), Auston Matthews (1.54), Dakota Joshua (1.52), and Fabian Zetterlund (1.46).

#12 While the players on the lowest end of individual expected goals are typically fourth liners, there are some more offensively inclined players hovering near the bottom. James van Riemsdyk, Max Domi, Ryan Strome, J.T. Miller, and Brayden Schenn are all among the Bottom 30.

#13 While the Edmonton Oilers are obviously invested in Jack Campbell as their starting goaltender after signing him as a free agent in the summer, rookie Stuart Skinner could force some difficult playing time decisions. Skinner has a .944 save percentage in five games, compared to Campbell’s .881 save percentage in seven games. This is a small sample of games for any player, but especially goaltenders, so Skinner’s early success does not mean that he will surely outplay Campbell this season. However, if Skinner continues to play at such a high level, he is going to warrant a role more substantial than that afforded to the typical backup goaltender.

#14 Skinner is not the only surprise backup goaltender early in the season. Among goalies who do not lead their team in starts, Vegas’ Adin Hill, Buffalo’s Craig Anderson, Chicago’s third-stringer Arvid Soderblom, Nashville’s Kevin Lankinen, Montreal’s Samuel Montembeault, and Washington’s Charlie Lindgren have all performed very well in a small sample of games to open the season. It will take more than a few games for any of them to push for playing time but a strong start to the season is the best way to force a change in goaltending plans.

#15 St. Louis Blues center Ryan O’Reilly is off to a terrible start in a contract year. The 31-year-old pivot has one point (1 G, 0 A) and 20 shots on goal in nine games. While his possession numbers are okay, the Blues have been outscored 10-2 during 5-on-5 play with O’Reilly on the ice. That is hardly typical performance from a center who has finished in the top five of Selke Trophy voting in four straight seasons, winning the award following the 2018-2019 season.

#16 Other prominent forwards that are starting slowly: Sam Reinhart, Teuvo Teravainen, Brendan Gallagher, Jordan Kyrou, and Kailer Yamamoto.

Reinhart has 31 shots on goal in 11 games, the highest per-game shot rate of his career and has yet to score.

Teravainen is still seeking his first goal despite putting 26 shots on net in 10 games. Carolina’s top line has had trouble finishing early in the season.

Kyrou has three goals in nine games but has zero assists and is minus-15. Relative to his teammates, the puck is moving the right way when Kyrou is on the ice, but his on-ice shooting percentage is 3.9% and his on-ice save percentage is .821, both ridiculously low.

Gallagher has three points (2 G, 1 A) in 11 games but his 2.36 shots on goal per game is a career low.

Yamamoto has never been a big shot generator, so even though he is playing a career-high 17:35 per game, his 1.40 shots per game is still around his career average. That leaves him with zero goals and three assists in 10 games.

From this group, Reinhart, Teravainen, and Kyrou look like good buy-low opportunities, while Gallagher and Yamamoto are riskier plays moving forward.

#17 The ninth pick in the 2021 Draft, Dylan Guenther is getting a quality opportunity to play with a rebuilding Coyotes team. He is getting buried in terms of shot quality, with the Coyotes getting 30.7% of expected goals while Guenther is on the ice during 5-on-5 play, but his Corsi percentage of 44.9% ranks third among Arizona forwards. Guenther has shown some of his skill around the net, contributing six points (2 G, 4 A) in nine games and given that this season is about development, Guenther should see his ice time increase as the year goes on.

#18 Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Seth Jones has landed on the injured list with a fractured thumb, thinning out an already thin blueline crew. Caleb Jones is seeing more power play time and has six assists in his past six games. Jack Johnson led Chicago defensemen in ice time during Thursday’s 2-1 overtime win against Los Angeles.

#19 While Tampa Bay Lightning superstar defenseman Victor Hedman nurses an upper-body injury, Mikhail Sergachev is getting even more opportunity to step to the forefront. Sergachev has three points (1 G, 2 A) in two games that Hedman has missed, averaging more than 27 minutes of ice time per game.

#20 With Ryan Hartman suffering a shoulder injury in a fight with Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Jarred Tinordi, Minnesota is getting perilously thin down the middle of the ice. Joel Eriksson Ek is followed on the depth chart by Frederick Gaudreau, Marco Rossi, and Sam Steel. This would seem to be a prime opportunity for Rossi to step into a bigger role, and he did play a career-high 16:39 in Thursday’s 4-0 loss to Seattle, but the Wild ended up shifting Matt Boldy to play the middle between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello on the top line.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.