Mitchell Marner – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – Team Preview

Fri, 13 Sep 2024 20:00:03 +0000

_{TORONTO, ON - MARCH 28: Toronto Maple Leafs Center Auston Matthews (34) skates during the NHL regular season game between the Washington Capitals and the Toronto Maple Leafs on March 28, 2024, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)}

Even after their third straight 100-point season, picking up 102 points (46-26-10), the Toronto Maple Leafs headed into the summer feeling disappointed after losing yet another seven-game first-round series to the Boston Bruins. With a 51.6% Corsi and 51.9% of the expected goals during five-on-five play, the Maple Leafs ranked 11th in both of those possession metrics. That is above average, but not by a lot, and potentially leaves a team a little vulnerable. The team scored 9.01 goals per 60 minutes on the power play, ranking seventh. On the other side of the coin, they ranked 23rd after allowing 8.40 goals against per 60 minutes while shorthanded. Combined, that’s a mediocre special teams performance and when the goaltending also ranked 23rd with a .893 save percentage, the high-powered Maple Leafs attack could not necessarily overcome those issues.

WHAT’S CHANGED? After falling short again in the playoffs, the Maple Leafs parted ways with head coach Sheldon Keefe, who was quickly scooped up by the New Jersey Devils. He was replaced by Craig Berube, who had skated for the Maple Leafs at one point in his lengthy playing career and won the Stanley Cup as head coach with the 2019 St. Louis Blues. Toronto focused on upgrading its defence, added Chris Tanev from Dallas and Oliver Ekman-Larsson from Florida in free agency. The Maple Leafs also added goaltender Anthony Stolarz from Florida, so the main personnel adjustments were on the defensive side of the puck. Left winger Tyler Bertuzzi and defenceman T.J. Brodie both signed in Chicago and goaltender Ilay Samsonov signed in Vegas as free agents. The Maple Leafs also named Auston Matthews as team captain, replacing John Tavares in the role.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? At this point, the Maple Leafs must win playoff rounds for there to be any kind of satisfaction. They have made the playoffs in eight consecutive seasons and have managed to win only one series. In an environment where underdogs can win a series with a hot goalie or a couple of streaky scorers, the Maple Leafs continually fall short. Therefore, winning in the regular season will not resonate with the fan base. Winning in the playoffs is really the only way to achieve success at this point. A Stanley Cup would be wonderful, but for a team that hasn’t won it all since 1967, some of the steps along the way would be nice to achieve, too.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Missing the playoffs would be a disastrous result for this team. There is more than enough talent here that the Maple Leafs should reach the playoffs, but if injuries become a factor and one or two of the top forwards have down years, suddenly Toronto could be in trouble. While it is popular for Maple Leafs critics, and sometimes fans, to berate their recent playoff performances, it should not be forgotten that, before this stretch of eight straight playoff berths, Toronto made the playoffs only once in the previous 11 seasons, so reaching the playoffs should not be taken for granted.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: While winger Matthew Knies is a possibility, the player with the best chance for a breakout season is goaltender Joseph Woll. The 26-year-old netminder has played well, posting a .912 save percentage in 36 career games. He was having a sensational game in Ottawa last December when he suffered a lower-body injury that kept him out until the end of February, and he wasn’t quite the same after returning, posting a .918 save percentage before his injury compared to a .890 save percentage after. He delivered strong performances to win Games 5 and 6 against Boston in the playoffs but was injured again and missed Game 7. A healthy Woll has a legitimate chance to earn at least a share of the crease with Stolarz, and if Woll plays well, he could earn the starting job outright.

Forwards

Auston Matthews

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	68	50	118	1.48

Following the most productive season of his career, Auston Matthews was named the 26th captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs. It’s a natural progression for one of the game's superstars and face of the Leafs franchise. Since Matthews entered the NHL in 2016, he leads the league with 368 goals (in 562 games). He’s up 40 goals on the second-best goal scorer in that time, Alex Ovechkin, and more impressively, has played less games than Ovechkin and the next five highest goal scorers in that time. Going into last season he was clearly the best goal scorer in the league, then he had 69 goals, becoming the ninth player in league history to have multiple 60+ goal seasons. The 69 goals were also the most goals in an NHL season since Mario Lemieux had 69 in 1995-96. While he was excellent all season, he was particularly impressive from December to February, scoring a monster 39 goals in 37 games. Down the stretch, he also had nine goals in nine games as he pushed for 70 goals. What stands out about that final run of goals is that he did it with Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi as his linemates. That is also who he started the playoffs with before injuries impacted the lineup. For years, Matthews and Marner have been attached at the hip. Matthews, and even Marner, maintaining their production while apart opens up all sorts of line combinations and deployment possibilities. With a new coach behind the bench, it will be interesting to see how Berube approaches handling the Leafs top players but regardless of what he does, it’s safe to say that as long as Matthews is healthy, he will be productive.

Mitch Marner

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	35	38	103	1.29

Production wise, Marner had a nearly identical season to the previous one. He had the exact same 0.38 goals per game and 0.86 assists per game rates, while his overall points per game clip was 1.23 (it was 1.24 the previous season), as he played in 11 less games. His injury came at a particularly poor time as Marner was coming off a stretch where he scored 20 points in 11 games in the month of February, and if you expand that to include his previous three months, he was on a run of 65 points in just 49 games (1.32 points per game). Unfortunately for Marner, the nature of the reported high ankle sprain he suffered that caused him to miss a month of hockey is a difficult injury to return from. He was productive after coming back with nine points in seven games but scored just once in that time and added just one other goal in the playoffs, ending the season with only two goals and 12 points in 14 games, which is far below what he’s capable of. Beyond the injury, some of that was also due to the Leafs leaning on Marner in a head-to-head checking role. Marner’s difficult playoffs is overshadowing what was another productive season, from a player who is eighth overall in league scoring since entering the NHL. He’s clearly a top 10 producer in the league and heading into a contract year. The expectation is that he has another monster season ahead of him while smack in the middle of his prime.

William Nylander

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	42	60	102	1.24

William Nylander followed up a career season with… another career season. After a 40 goal, 87-point campaign, Nylander upped his overall totals by repeating the 40 goals but putting up 98 points in a contract year. That increase in production coincided with playing 1:22 more per game than last season. Some of that bump was due to an expanded role as a penalty killer. His first half of the season was particularly productive as he put up 61 points in just 47 games. Nylander was rewarded with a huge contract extension mid-season and will be one of the highest paid players in the league this season as a result. In the second half of the season, he cooled down some, scoring 37 points in 35 games after the all-star break, including a three assist in nine game April ahead of the playoffs. When the playoffs began, he was unexpectedly out of the lineup with what was later revealed to be migraine issues. While he did return in the playoffs and ended up playing in four games, it took him two games to get going before scoring two big goals in Game Six to extend the Leafs season and scoring their only goal in Game Seven. Nylander has shown he can be a consistent 40 goal scorer (with no big shooting percentage bump to get there), and he’s capable of scoring big playoff goals. That’s why the Leafs paid him and what they expect from him for years to come.

John Tavares

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	28	40	68	0.86

As John Tavares begins the final year of his seven-year, $77 million contract, he remains a very productive though no longer elite producer. He is also no longer the captain of the Leafs, as the organization made a decision to pass the captaincy to Matthews. For Tavares, that will mean less attention on him, which could be a good thing for his game at this point of his career. Last season, he managed to produce 29 goals and 65 points in 80 games. His 29 goals were tied for 29th among all centers according to NHL.com, while his 65 total points was tied for 38th. Contributing to those numbers was the fact that Tavares had the lowest shooting percentage of his career, including a career long nine game goalless drought in the middle of the season. Considering he was still able to create chances as he regularly has and still produced at a very solid clip overall, you can argue he is actually in line to regress and produce more, rather than steadily decline. Tavares was also arguably the top faceoff man in the league last season, winning 59.3 percent, the highest percentage of any player that took over 850 faceoffs last season. The playoffs, though, were a different story. Tavares had just two points in seven games and struggled to create or be an impact player, which was compounded by the absences of Matthews and Nylander through the series. His lack of footspeed inhibits him from driving play regularly now. While he won’t be able to live up to his salary this season, Tavares should remain a very productive center.

Matthew Knies

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	21	20	41	0.50

Following a promising playoff right out of college, expectations were high for Matthew Knies in his first full rookie season. There were growing pains, but it was ultimately a promising campaign. The overall numbers - 15 goals and 35 points in 80 games - don’t leap off of the page but he did well enough to earn a promotion in the Leafs lineup. As a rookie he skated alongside Matthews and Marner in difficult matchups against their opponents’ best players night in and night. Knies also averaged just 38 seconds per game on the power play, limiting his overall ability to produce offense. In the playoffs, he played with John Tavares and William Nylander, and made a big impact, scoring an overtime winner, putting up three points in seven games overall. His size and physicality are welcome additions to a Leafs forward group that are short on those attributes. Knies is also skilled enough to play alongside the Leafs top players and make plays with them. Like all young players, he will look to build on his production and consistency. He was just below water in shot attempts and expected goals and will want to get the puck more in the offensive zone next season. Knies will also look to carve out a full-time power play role, likely on the second unit, to help push his production up and take a leap in his sophomore campaign.

Max Domi

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	12	41	53	0.65

After bouncing around between six teams in the last four seasons, Max Domi signed with his hometown Leafs, had a productive season, and was locked up with a four-year extension. But it wasn’t always smooth sailing for Domi, as it took him and the team time to sort out what his role and who his linemates would be. He started the season on the left wing and spent time with David Kampf as his center early on. Then he moved to center in a sheltered scoring role between Nick Robertson and Calle Jarnkrok, playing limited minutes. Overall, he had just 25 points in his first 52 games, playing 13:01 per night. Injuries forced him up the lineup, and his play responded accordingly as he eventually found his way onto the top line with Matthews and produced 22 points in 28 games down the stretch playing 15:13 per night. Then in the playoffs, he had a monster Game 2 with a goal and game winning assist, before injuries broke up his line. He ended the playoffs with a solid four points in seven games. Now 29, Domi has proven to be a productive NHLer, albeit one that struggles defensively. He doesn’t have a defined role as a center or winger, but he has shown he can play all three forward positions in a pinch and be productive - he has a career 0.63 points per game.

Bobby McMann

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	21	18	39	0.54

Bobby McMann turned out to be one of the most pleasant surprises of the Leafs season. In training camp, he was injured, put on waivers, and sent to the American League as a result. After just six games he was called up and put on the Leafs fourth line where he immediately contributed with two assists. A month later, he scored his first NHL goal. But McMann was starting to fade into the background and potential waiver territory until injuries and a flu bug forced him into the lineup for a game against the St. Louis Blues in February where he had a hat trick. That kick started a run of seven goals and 10 points in six games. The following month, he averaged 14:51 as he moved up the lineup and received regular top six ice time. His overall production settled down as he had just six points in 14 games, but five of those points were goals. As a result, McMann, a pending UFA, was rewarded with a two-year extension. Unfortunately, in April, McMann suffered an MCL knee sprain in the third last game of the season and wasn’t able to return for the playoffs. He has had some trouble staying healthy in his professional career so far and remains a question mark until established otherwise. If he can stay out of the infirmary, he has the size, speed and shot to produce, which he demonstrated last season when he given the opportunity.

Calle Jarnkrok

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
55	6	11	17	0.31

Coming off of a career high 20-goal season, shooting a career high 18.9 percent in 2022-23, Calle Jarnkrok was bound to regress. In 2023-24 his goals per game dropped from 0.27 to 0.19, returning to his career average, but he still managed to be a solid contributor. The biggest issue with Jarnkrok’s season is that it was interrupted by injury and he ended up playing in just 52 games. When he did play, he was a dependable defensive forward for a Leafs team that was devoid of them. He was largely tasked with playing on the third line with two limited defensive players - Domi and Robertson - so that he could cover for them. Jarnkrok won his minutes in shot attempts, expected goals, and actual goals by 11. He was deployed as a Swiss army knife on the penalty kill, in 6v5 situations when the Leafs needed a goal, and up the lineup when other players struggled. But a broken knuckle, followed by a separate hand injury hampered his season. Jarnkrok didn’t play a regular season game after March 14, then stepped right into the playoffs on April 20th and predictably struggled, going scoreless in the series despite seeing regular power play time. Jarnkrok has proven to be a dependable two-way forward that’s capable of playing up and down the lineup. That ability makes him a useful player but it limits his ability to produce because of how much he is leaned on to help defensively.

Nick Robertson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
45	8	11	19	0.42

After a few seasons knocking on the door and producing in the AHL, Nick Robertson finally earned an extended opportunity in the NHL and showed that he can produce in the league. While he wasn’t a full-time, every single day player, he did play in a notable 56 games, producing14 goals and 27 points in the process despite playing just 11:23 per night. Robertson was deployed in a sheltered scoring role, but his elite release doesn’t need much time or opportunity for him to find the score sheet. Producing in limited minutes has led to frustration as it seemed no matter what he did his ice time wouldn’t go up. He scored four out of five times after being a healthy scratch as well. The concerns were on the defensive end and with his struggles on the breakout. None of which was helped by switching him over to play right wing as a left-hand shot, or by his slight frame when he needed to battle on the wall against bigger defensemen to get the puck out (he is listed at 5-foot-9 and 178 pounds). Improving on that side of things should help him get more ice time, which is the next step for Robertson as he seeks to not just stick on the roster but play a full 82 game season with top nine minutes. If he makes that transition his modestly impressive offensive numbers to date could blossom.

DEFENCE

Morgan Rielly

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	7	48	55	0.73

Last season was a tale of two campaigns for Morgan Rielly, book ending a five-game suspension for cross checking Ridley Greig. Prior to that suspension, Rielly was having an excellent season, playing 24:21 per night and producing seven goals and 43 points in 50 games. After he returned, he was never quite the same and that was evident in his ice time dropping a full two-minutes per night to 22:21 the rest of the season. He also failed to score a goal after returning, though he did deliver 15 assists in 22 games. If you expand his season to the Leafs seven playoff games to his last goal in mid-January against the Oilers, he actually ended the season on a 37-game goalless drought. It also marked only the second time in eight playoff appearances where Rielly failed to score at least one goal. In fairness to Rielly, he hasn’t exactly been supported. His most common partner was an decling TJ Brodie who got pushed off the Leafs playoff lineup, and down the stretch it was Ilya Lyubushkin, who profiles more as a third pairing defenseman. No other top pairing defenseman in the playoffs has partners like that. With the addition of Chris Tanev, Rielly is slated to have the best partner of his career next season and expectations are high for a strong season, not just in terms of production, but for controlling play and winning his minutes.

Chris Tanev

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	2	18	20	0.27

A model of consistency, Tanev put together another excellent season. Despite starting the season on a poor Calgary team that was embarking on a fire sale and would end the year with a -14-goal differential, Tanev impressively won his minutes and was positive in shot attempts, expected goals and actual goals (+7). When he was traded to Dallas at the deadline and was on a contender, his play found another level. He handily won his share of shot attempts (55.76) and expected goals (62.12), despite an offensive zone faceoff percentage of just 36.92 percent. But he saved his best for the playoffs. In round one, he played 46:34 directly against Jack Eichel at five-on-five and the Stars won those minutes 3-0 on goals. In round two, he played a whopping 68:43 against Nathan MacKinnon at five-on-five and the Stars won those minutes 3-1 on goals. In round three against Connor McDavid, he did lose those minutes 3-4 but considering the historic playoff McDavid had, that is more than respectable. Tanev is an excellent shutdown defenseman that is a fearless shot blocker capable of making a great first pass and leading breakouts. That’s why he wins his minutes on the ice. While he’s about to turn 35, to this point, he has continued to play excellent hockey. For a Leafs team whose two best defensemen are left-handed, and who struggle overall defensively, the right-handed Tanev is an obvious fit and a much-needed top four defenseman.

Jake McCabe

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	6	23	29	0.38

In his first full season with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Jake McCabe responded by having a career season in production with eight goals and 28 points, while driving a strong second pairing alongside Simon Benoit, while playing right defense as a left-handed shot. He also threw a collection of big open ice hits, cementing himself as one of the bigger hitters in the league. It was an all-around banner season for McCabe, who took time to adjust to Toronto the previous season after being a trade deadline acquisition. It was the first time that McCabe played on a playoff team after starting his career in Buffalo before moving to Chicago. McCabe’s 20:39 per game was the second highest time on ice of his career and in the 31 games after the all-star break, he averaged 21:06. Even with the acquisitions of Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, McCabe has solidified himself as a critical piece of the Leafs defense and will be in line for a big role again ahead of being an unrestricted free agent next summer. It is fair to question, though, if McCabe will be able to match his production from last season as he shot a sky high (for defensemen) 11 percent, and he likely won’t be leaned on too heavily for offensive contributions given the Leafs have three options ahead of him when you include Timothy Liljegren in that mix as well.

Timothy Liljegren

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	5	20	25	0.36

Liljegren was drafted in the first round with pick 17 in 2017 and Leafs fans have been patiently waiting for him to realize his potential since that time. While it wasn’t an astronomical leap, Liljegren did take on extra responsibility last season and had a modest increase in production. His 19:40 per game was a career high, well above his previous high of 17:55. Similarly, his 0.42 points per game rate was also a career high, though he only played in 55 games due to a high ankle sprain. That injury sidelined him for a month and a half but when he did return in December, he was able to ramp up. When Morgan Rielly was suspended in February, he stepped up with seven points in eight games playing on the top power play unit. Even after Rielly returned, he remained on the top unit and went on a stretch of scoring 14 points in 17 games, averaging over 21 minutes per night. But then he got hurt again, missed nearly three weeks, and never truly returned to form again. Despite that, for the first time, Liljegren dressed in nearly all of the Leafs playoff games, getting into six of their seven games, but logging just 17:52, notching one assist, and failing to log a shot on net. Signed to a two-year prove it deal, there are signs of progress and flashes of his potential. To take the next step Liljegren is going to need to stay healthy and sustain his success, but he will be in tough because he has competition for power play time with the signing of Ekman-Larsson.

GOAL

Matt Murray

Joseph Woll

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
44	25	14	5	2	0.907	2.78

The Toronto Maple Leafs didn't see goaltender Matt Murray take a single practice with the team last season until March - but despite what's been a lackluster tenure with the franchise thus far, the former Pittsburgh standout is back for at least one more year to prove himself. Toronto brought Murray back this July, inking the two-time Stanley Cup champion to a middling deal to shore up a bizarre three-goaltender system for the upcoming season. Murray will be joined by journeyman backup Anthony Stolarz, who offers far less pedigree and NHL experience than Murray but vastly more consistency over the last few years. The pair then get to battle things out with up-and-comer Joseph Woll - who seemed to have proven himself in spades last season but will seemingly have to earn the starting gig over Murray and Stolarz if he wants to lead the charge this year.

The biggest concern for Toronto will be just how extensive Murray's injury history is, coupled with a handful of injuries already for the younger Woll. Stolarz, on the other hand, put up some of the league's best raw numbers last year as a backup for the Stanley Cup champions in Florida - but has never hit the 30-game threshold at the NHL level, and fared far less consistently when behind a less structured defensive corps with the Anaheim Ducks in the years prior. He's a step up from the addition of Martin Jones that Toronto made the year prior, but still looks like almost as much of a question mark as the rest of the Leafs goaltending depth chart. The crease is likely Woll's to take in the years to come, but this year in particular still appears to be a roll of the dice.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (April 8th – April 14th) – Eastern playoff race tightens with Penguins back in the hunt – Favourable matchups and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 06 Apr 2024 21:27:00 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - APRIL 02: Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby (87) celebrates after scoring a goal during a game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and New Jersey Devils on April 2, 2024 at Prudential Center in the Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

The battle for the second seed in the Eastern Conference wild-card race, along with the third seed in the Metropolitan Division could go down to the wire.

The third spot in the Metro is held by Philadelphia (36-29-11, 83 points), which has seemed destined to make the playoffs for a while. However, the Flyers have fallen on tough times, going 2-5-3 over their last 10 games, which has put them in a vulnerable position. To make matters worse, the Flyers have a 17-13-7 away record, and their next four contests are on the road. That might make it tough for Philadelphia to maintain its playoff hold.

Meanwhile, the Islanders (34-27-15, 83 points) occupy the second wild-card spot. It’s been a weird journey for New York, which seemed to end its playoff push with a six-game losing streak from March 11-21, only to rebound with a 5-2-0 run since. The Islanders do have a somewhat tough schedule for the remainder of the season, including two remaining games against the Rangers, but they’re at least in charge of their destiny.

Washington (36-29-10, 82 points) and Detroit (37-30-8, 82 points) have lost ground to the Islanders, but are still very much in the hunt. The Red Wings have won just four of their last 16 games, but Detroit got a badly needed two points on the road against Tampa Bay on Monday, so that’s something the Red Wings can potentially build off. Kane is doing his best to guide Detroit forward with five goals and 11 points across his past 10 games. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the veteran continue to come up clutch down the final stretch.

Speaking of aging stars trying to push their team into the playoffs, Sidney Crosby has supplied an unreal seven goals and 20 points over his past 12 contests. Pittsburgh (35-10-11, 81 points) was written out of the playoff race a while ago, but after a 5-0-2 stretch, the Penguins are back in the conversation. Importantly, the Penguins have two potential paths between the third Metropolitan Division seed and the second wild-card spot.

Pittsburgh still has an uphill battle, in part due to its difficult schedule. Its remaining games are against Tampa Bay, Toronto, Detroit, Boston, Nashville and the Islanders -- all teams either in a playoff spot or in the postseason hunt. Still, what a story it would be if Crosby led the Penguins into the playoffs even after they dealt Jake Guentzel to Carolina at the deadline.

Arizona Coyotes – TUE @ SEA, WED @ VAN (BTB), FRI @ EDM, SUN @ CGY

The Coyotes will be on the road this week, playing in Seattle on Tuesday, Vancouver on Wednesday, Edmonton on Friday and Calgary on Sunday. It’s a difficult schedule, but there aren’t a lot of teams featuring in four contests this week, so Arizona is still worthy of highlighting.

Although Arizona will miss the playoffs for the fourth straight season, some of the Coyotes’ younger players are giving the fans reason to be optimistic about the future. Josh Doan, son of former Coyotes captain Shane Doan, made his NHL debut March 26 and has already accumulated two goals and five points across four contests. The 22-year-old Doan also looked good in AHL Tucson this year, providing 26 goals and 46 points in 62 outings. He’ll be a rookie worth watching next season, though, despite his hot start, I wouldn’t peg him as one of the early favorites to compete for the Calder Trophy.

If he ends up having a rookie campaign like Logan Cooley has, I think the Coyotes would be pleased with that. Cooley hasn’t made headlines in his first season, but the 19-year-old has had his moments, providing 17 goals and 39 points through 75 outings. The highlight so far has been his hat trick against Nashville, which he recorded on March 28. He also has six goals and nine points over his past nine appearances.

Matias Maccelli is also part of the Coyotes’ long-term plans. The 23-year-old has 14 goals and 51 points in 75 outings in 2023-24. Not a bad output for a player who will come with a $3,425,000 annual cap hit through 2025-26, especially given that he still has room to grow. Maccelli has looked especially good recently, supplying three goals and five points over his past four outings.

Calgary Flames – TUE @SJS, THU @ LAK, FRI @ ANA (BTB), SUN VS ARI

The Flames will start the week with a game in San Jose on Thursday before visiting Los Angeles on Thursday and Anaheim on Friday. They’ll conclude the week with a home contest versus the Coyotes. Among those adversaries, the Kings are the only ones in a playoff position.

It’s still too early to pass final judgment on the trade that sent Elias Lindholm from Calgary to Vancouver, but so far it’s looking like a potential steal for the Flames. Not only did the Flames get pieces that might help them in the future, including a 2024 first-round pick, but while Lindholm, who presently has a wrist injury, has underwhelmed with Vancouver when healthy, Andrei Kuzmenko has settled in nicely with the Flames.

Kuzmenko’s provided four goals and seven points in his past four outings. He still has just 17 goals and 36 points in 65 outings between Vancouver and Calgary in 2023-24, which is a steep departure from his 74-point showing last season, but clearly, he still has offensive abilities. He’ll make for an interesting late-round gamble in fantasy drafts next season given his high-risk, high-reward status.

Kuzmenko’s not the only Flames player who is red hot. There’s also defenseman MacKenzie Weegar, who has an incredible three goals and eight points in his past five appearances. That brings him up to 19 goals and 48 points along with 47 PIM, 179 hits and 189 blocks in 75 appearances in 2023-24. Calgary traded away defensemen Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev before the deadline, but Weegar will remain with the Flames as their headline blueliner after inking an eight-year, $50 million contract back in October of 2022. That deal runs through 2030-31.

Calgary also made a long-term commitment to Nazem Kadri, who is signed through 2028-29 at a $7 million annual cap hit. That contract is questionable, especially because Kadri is already 33 years old, but to his credit, he’s been productive this campaign with 24 goals and 65 points in 75 outings. Based on his recent play -- Kadri has a goal and six points over his last five games -- it wouldn’t be surprising to see him reach the 70-point mark for the second time in his career.

Florida Panthers – TUE VS OTT, THU VS CBJ, SAT VS BUF

The Panthers have just three games scheduled next week, but they’re all home contests and none of their adversaries will be making the playoffs. Florida will host the Senators on Tuesday, the Blue Jackets on Thursday and the Sabres on Saturday.

Florida has an eye toward the playoffs, but in the meantime, the squad will move forward without Aaron Ekblad (undisclosed) and Carter Verhaeghe (upper body), who both might be done for what’s left of the regular season.

Ekblad’s injury resulted in Josh Mahura drawing back into the lineup Thursday. Mahura registered an assist in 15:28 of ice time in that contest, bringing him up to nine assists in 27 outings this season. Mahura will probably play regularly for the remainder of the season. He doesn’t do enough offensively to make him worth using in standard fantasy leagues, but he does have some utility in formats that value PIM, hits and blocks -- the 25-year-old has 18, 36 and 24, respectively, in those categories.

Carter Verhaeghe’s absence has opened the door for Nick Cousins to play alongside Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk. Although Cousins isn’t a major offensive contributor -- he has just six goals and 12 points across 64 contests this season -- those are pretty much ideal linemates. Cousins contributed a goal and an assist versus Ottawa on Thursday with Tkachuk and Bennett providing the assists on his marker.

The loss of offense caused by Verhaeghe’s injury might also be partially mitigated by Aleksander Barkov’s amazing play of late. The 28-year-old Barkov dealt with his own health issues recently, missing three straight contests from March 21-24, but he’s supplied four goals and nine points in six outings since returning from that undisclosed injury.

Los Angeles Kings – TUE @ ANA THU VS CGY SAT VS ANA

Like the Panthers, LA has just three games scheduled next week, but the competition is favorable. The Kings will play in Anaheim on Tuesday before hosting the Flames on Thursday and the Ducks on Saturday.

Danault has missed the Kings’ past four games, but the injury doesn’t sound major. Coach Jim Hiller described Danault’s chances of returning last Monday as “50/50,” per Zach Dooley of LA Kings Insider. He didn’t end up playing in that contest, but perhaps he’ll be available at some point next week. The only X-Factor is that LA has pretty much secured its playoff berth at this point, and while the Kings are still battling for playoff positioning, it might still make more sense to allow Danault to rest and be as close to 100 percent as possible during the playoffs rather than risk rushing him back.

In the meantime, Blake Lizotte is playing a bigger role than normal. He’s averaged 16:31 of ice time during Danault’s absence, compared to just 11:35 overall in 2023-24. Look for Lizotte to shift back to his typical supporting role once Danault does return. The injury has also created an opening for Akil Thomas to get his first taste of NHL action. The 24-year-old has averaged just 6:18 over his first two contests, but he still has managed to record a goal and four points in that span. Thomas has been solid this campaign with AHL Ontario, providing 22 goals and 43 points in 61 outings, and it would be interesting to see what he could do at the NHL level if given a bigger role. If nothing else, Thomas will be someone to keep an eye on during training camp.

The two upcoming games against the Ducks, who rank 30th offensively with 2.45 goals per game, should be a great opportunity to start goaltender Cam Talbot or David Rittich, depending on who is deployed. Talbot, who has a 24-18-6 record, 2.47 GAA and .915 save percentage across 49 contests, seems set to serve as the Kings’ starter in the playoffs. However, Rittich has done well this campaign with a 12-6-3 record, 2.21 GAA and .919 save percentage in 23 games, and both goaltenders are likely to be utilized in the final days of the season as LA looks to keep both of them fresh.

Seattle Kraken – TUE VS ARI, THU VS SJS, SAT @ DAL, SUN @ STL

Seattle will begin the week at home with contests against the Coyotes on Tuesday and the Sharks on Thursday. The Kraken will then visit Dallas on Saturday and St. Louis on Sunday. Dallas is the only team on that list in a playoff position.

The Kraken will miss the postseason, but if there’s a silver lining, it’s that Joey Daccord has proven to be a strong goaltender for them. He’s posted an 18-16-11 record, 2.42 GAA and .918 save percentage in 47 outings in 2023-24. Daccord will remain with the Kraken next year with an affordable $1.2 million cap hit, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he proves to be the clear starter in 2024-25 ahead of Philipp Grubauer, who is in danger of finishing with a save percentage below .900 for the third straight campaign -- he's 12-14-2 with a 2.97 GAA and an .895 save percentage in 32 appearances.

Rather than goaltending, offense has been Seattle’s failing this year. The Kraken rank 29th with 2.61 goals per game. Jared McCann has arguably been part of the problem. Sure, he does lead the team with 28 goals and 60 points in 74 outings, but that still marks a significant decline from his 40-goal showing in 2022-23. For what it’s worth, though, he’s finishing the campaign strong, providing a goal and six points in his last five appearances.

Matty Beniers has seen a much steeper decline. He had 24 goals and 57 points in 80 outings as a rookie but has gone through a sophomore slump, contributing 13 goals and 33 points across 70 appearances. Beniers is partially salvaging the campaign late, collecting three goals and five points across his past five outings.

Tampa Bay Lightning – TUE VS CBJ, THU VS OTT, SAT @ WAS

The Lightning will open the week by hosting the Blue Jackets on Tuesday and the Senators on Thursday. Those are two favorable matchups against teams near the bottom of the league’s standings. Tampa Bay’s road contest against Washington on Saturday might be difficult, though, especially as the Capitals fight to earn a wild-card spot.

Of course, when it comes to the Lightning, the biggest question is if Nikita Kucherov will win the Art Ross Trophy and thus bolster his bid for the Hart. Kucherov has 43 goals and 133 points in 75 outings, giving him a three-point edge over Nathan MacKinnon (48 goals, 82 assists) and a six-point lead over Connor McDavid (29 goals, 97 assists). Kucherov has built that advantage by accumulating an incredible nine points (one goal) over his past four appearances. He’ll likely need a strong finish to maintain his edge over MacKinnon and McDavid, but that’s certainly within his power.

That spectacle might mask a growing injury problem for Tampa Bay. The squad was already missing defenseman Mikhail Sergachev (leg) along with forwards Tanner Jeannot (upper body) and Logan Brown (undisclosed) going into Thursday’s contest against Montreal, and Brandon Hagel (undisclosed) as well as Anthony Cirelli (undisclosed) were hurt during the Lightning’s 7-4 victory. It’s not clear yet how long Hagel or Cirelli will be out for, but we might see Conor Sheary draw back into the lineup.

Although Sheary has just three goals and 13 points in 52 games this season, those numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt because he’s averaged just 10:54 of ice time. With mounting injuries, Sheary might be utilized in a top-nine role, which should lead to a meaningful uptick in offensive production. Although Sheary has never been able to replicate his 53-point showing with Pittsburgh in 2016-17, he can at least be a decent middle-six forward when given the chance.

The Lightning might also lean on Nick Paul more going down the stretch. The 29-year-old has provided three goals over his past two games, elevating him to 22 markers and 42 points in 76 outings in 2023-24.

Toronto Maple Leafs – MON VS PIT, TUE @ NJD (BTB), THU VS NJD, SAT VS DET

Toronto has a packed schedule next week, starting with a home contest against Pittsburgh on Monday. The Maple Leafs will then play in New Jersey on Tuesday before hosting the Devils on Thursday and will conclude the week with a home tilt versus the Red Wings.

As is the case with Tampa Bay, a single player’s pursuit of the Hart Trophy, not to mention tremendous milestones, is the center of attention in Toronto. Auston Matthews has managed eight goals and 15 points over his past eight outings, bringing him up to 63 markers and 99 points in 74 contests this season. His 63 goals are tied for 27th on the all-time single-season list, and Matthews has an outside chance of becoming just the 10th player in NHL history and the first since 1992-93 to reach the 70-goal milestone. As it is, Matthews is the first player of the salary cap era to score at least 60 goals on two occasions.

Matthews’ recent success is all the more impressive because he hasn’t had Mitchell Marner (ankle) to work off. Marner hasn’t been in the lineup since March 7, but he might make his return this Saturday versus Montreal. Interestingly, rather than plug Marner back into his typical role alongside Matthews, he’s instead projected to serve alongside Bobby McMann and John Tavares in his return. Matthews would then play alongside Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi while William Nylander would work with Matthew Knies and Pontus Holmberg. There’s some logic in spreading out their talent like that, especially ahead of the playoffs. Teams that can roll out three effective scoring lines tend to go far, but at the same time, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Marner end up back with Matthews before long.

Outside of Matthews, the Leafs’ hottest forward recently has arguably been Knies. While the rookie has left something to be desired with his 13 goals and 33 points in 73 contests this season, he has supplied a goal and five points over his last five outings. Bertuzzi has also been a standout performer lately, scoring four goals over his past five appearances.

Vegas Golden Knights – MON @ VAN, WED @ EDM, FRI VS MIN, SUN VS COL

The Golden Knights will open the week on the road with contests in Vancouver on Monday and Edmonton on Wednesday. The Golden Knights will then return home to host the Wild on Friday and the Avalanche on Sunday. It’s not an easy schedule, but Vegas is getting highlighted anyway because there weren’t that many teams with four games on the docket.

Tomas Hertl (knee) hasn’t made his Golden Knights debut yet, but he seems to be drawing close to it, so perhaps Vegas will get its first game with the 30-year-old this coming week. He had 15 goals and 34 points in 48 games with the lowly Sharks before being dealt to Vegas on March 8. Hertl’s likely to see his playing time go down somewhat with Vegas -- he averaged 20:54 of ice time in San Jose -- but he’ll be working with much better players, so his production might still rise. Keep an eye on how Vegas utilizes him during the final games of the season because he has the potential to do very well in playoff leagues.

While Vegas hasn’t reaped the rewards of acquiring Hertl yet, Anthony Mantha is already having an impact. Acquired from Washington on March 5, Mantha got off to a slow start with just a goal over his first seven Vegas contests, but he’s hit his stride while providing seven points (one marker) over his past six appearances. The 29-year-old is serving in a middle-six capacity and has seen time recently alongside William Karlsson.

Sticking with Karlsson, who has 26 goals and 53 points in 63 games, would be advantageous for Mantha. The 31-year-old Karlsson has also been red hot recently, collecting two tallies and seven points over his last five outings.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (March 18th to 24th) – Detroit in late season collapse, need to turn it around fast – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 16 Mar 2024 17:18:48 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 04: Detroit Red Wings right wing Patrick Kane (88) skates with the puck during an NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on January 4, 2024 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)

For much of the season, it looked like Detroit was going to make the playoffs. As recently as Feb. 27, the Red Wings were 33-20-6 with an eight-point cushion in the fight for a wild-card spot. After dropping seven straight games, though, Detroit finds itself tied with the Islanders for the second wild-card seed, and the Red Wings’ situation is even worse because they’ve played one game more than New York. Meanwhile, Washington is just one point behind the Islanders and Red Wings, putting further pressure on Detroit.

Goaltending has played a big part in Detroit’s collapse. Alex Lyon was having a strong season, posting a 17-8-2 record, 2.68 GAA and .916 save percentage across 27 contests through Feb. 24. However, Lyon has allowed at least three goals in each of his last seven appearances, resulting in an ugly .856 save percentage in that span. However, Ville Husso (lower body) is still unavailable, and James Reimer has a 6-7-2 record, 3.09 GAA and .903 save percentage in 19 contests this campaign, so the Red Wings don’t have a good alternative to pivot to during Lyon’s struggles.

To be fair, it’s not just Lyon. Detroit has managed just 1.71 goals per game during its losing streak. Patrick Kane and Lucas Raymond have each managed just three points over that seven-game span. Alex DeBrincat has no goals and one assist in the same stretch. Those are key forwards for Detroit, so for them all to go cold at the same time is disastrous.

The Red Wings could still rebound and make the postseason, but they need to do it soon. Otherwise, this season will go down as one of the most painful late season collapses for a team in recent memory.

Carolina Hurricanes – TUE @ NYI, THU VS PHI, FRI @ WAS (BTB), SUN VS TOR

The Hurricanes’ playoff spot is all but guaranteed, but Carolina is still chasing the Rangers in the battle for the Metropolitan Division title. They’ll continue that pursuit next week starting with a road game against the Islanders on Tuesday. After that, Carolina will host the Flyers on Thursday, play in Washington on Friday and conclude with a home contest versus the Maple Leafs on Sunday.

The Hurricanes are pretty healthy right now and even have Frederik Andersen back after missing roughly four months due to a blood clotting issue. He’s been fantastic since returning, posting a 3-0-0 record, 1.01 GAA and .955 save percentage across three starts. Carolina has been rotating between him and Pyotr Kochetkov, who has saved 46 of 49 shots (.939 save percentage) over his last two contests, bringing him to 17-12-3 with a 2.35 GAA and a .911 save percentage through 34 appearances this season.

Andersen and Kochetkov are likely to split the workload for the remainder of the season, which doesn’t leave much of a role for Spencer Martin. It wouldn’t be surprising if Martin accepts a brief AHL conditioning stint in a week or two for the sake of staying fresh ahead of the playoffs. Although he’s certainly far from Carolina’s first choice going forward, it’s still helpful to have him as a fallback plan should the Hurricanes run into injury troubles.

Jake Guentzel (upper body) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (personal) have also returned and made their Hurricanes debuts after being acquired from Pittsburgh and Washington, respectively. The duo appears set to play together on the second line, providing the Hurricanes with scoring threats outside of the Andrei Svechnikov-Sebastian Aho-Teuvo Teravainen trio.

Kuznetsov has just seven goals and 18 points in 47 contests this season, but there’s potential here for him to mesh nicely with Guentzel, especially as the two settle into their new roles. If Kuznetsov is available in your fantasy league, he’s not a bad forward to take a chance on.

Colorado Avalanche – TUE @ STL, FRI VS CBJ, SUN VS PIT

The battle for the Central Division title could come down to the wire with Colorado, Dallas and Winnipeg all legitimate contenders for the top spot. The Avalanche can make things easier for themselves in that race by sweeping their relatively light competition next week. They’ll play in St. Louis on Tuesday before hosting the Blue Jackets on Friday and the Penguins on Sunday. None of those adversaries are in a playoff position, though St. Louis and Pittsburgh still have outside shots of squeaking into a wild-card slot.

There has been news recently when it comes to Gabriel Landeskog’s recovery from cartilage transplant surgery on his right knee. As Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports, the 31-year-old might return during the 2024 playoffs, but it’s far from guaranteed. Keep in mind that he’ll be just 10 months into his 12-16 month timetable come May and while the Avalanche aren’t ruling anything out, they also don’t want to rush him back and risk making things worse.

He will surely be on the back of fantasy managers’ minds going into playoff league drafts. When healthy, Landeskog is a top-tier forward and the Avalanche are legitimate Cup contenders, so under normal circumstances, he’d be highly sought after. You should heavily temper your expectations, though. At most, you could take him toward the end of the draft, and even then, only if you’re comfortable with the very real possibility that he ends up not contributing anything.

In the meantime, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen are continuing to dominate with 14 and 12 points, respectively, over the Avalanche’s last five games alone. MacKinnon is up to 42 goals and 115 points through 67 games as he pursues both the Art Ross and Hart Trophies.

Casey Mittelstadt has settled into a second-line role and has provided a goal and an assist in three games since being acquired by Buffalo. Obviously, he’s not playing with MacKinnon and Rantanen at even strength, but Mittelstadt doesn’t seem to be with the superstar duo on the power play either, instead going out with the second unit. That meaningfully hinders Mittelstadt’s value going forward.

Dallas Stars – WED VS ARI, FRI VS PIT, SUN @ ARI

As noted above, Dallas is in the battle for the Central Division title. Like the Avalanche, Dallas’ upcoming competition is fairly easy. Dallas will start with home games against the Coyotes and the Penguins on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, before traveling to Arizona for a contest Sunday.

Unlike Colorado, which made a big splash in the Mittelstadt for Bowen Byram trade, Dallas had a relatively quiet trade deadline, though the Stars were able to get some business done before it, acquiring defenseman Chris Tanev from Calgary on Feb. 28. Dallas is also looking to get some reinforcements back soon in Tyler Seguin (lower body) and Evgenii Dadonov (lower body), both of which might return next week.

When Seguin returns, Sam Steel will likely find himself moving out of a top-nine role, but what’s harder to gauge is where Dadonov fits in. After scoring 24 goals and 57 points in 47 AHL contests, Logan Stankoven made his NHL debut Feb. 24 and has gone on to record five goals and eight points in 10 outings. If the 21-year-old can continue to produce, then removing him from his third-line spot would seem counterproductive. However, there is no other obvious candidate outside of Steel (who would get bumped for Seguin’s return) to remove from the top nine, so when everyone is healthy, Dadonov might find himself on the fourth unit.

A fourth line of Dadonov, Steel and Radek Faksa is a level of luxury most teams could only dream of, but that trio likely won’t get enough playing time to have any fantasy value. It does put pressure on Stankoven, though -- if he has a prolonged cold stretch, he could find his minutes drop dramatically given the intense competition in Dallas.

Edmonton Oilers – TUE VS MTL, THU VS BUF, SAT @ TOR, SUN @ OTT (BTB)

Edmonton has had some incredible highs and lows this campaign, but when all is done, it now looks like the Oilers will finish with the second seed in the Pacific Division. However, that’s not guaranteed, so Edmonton needs to continue to get results in the upcoming week. Fortunately for the Oilers, their upcoming competition isn’t the strongest. They’ll host Montreal on Tuesday and Buffalo on Thursday before hitting the road to play in Toronto on Saturday and Ottawa on Sunday. The Maple Leafs are set to make the playoffs, but their other three adversaries have an eye toward the draft lottery.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are unsurprisingly continuing to headline the Oilers’ offense. McDavid has an incredible 25 points (four goals) in his past 13 games while Draisaitl has four tallies and 13 points in his last seven appearances.

Edmonton did try to diversify its offense with the addition of Adam Henrique, but the former Ducks forward has just one assist in four contests with the Oilers. He’s serving primarily on the third line and second power-play unit, so he’s not sharing the ice with Edmonton’s superstars. Unless that changes, Henrique’s fantasy value with the Oilers is likely to be somewhat limited.

This might be a good week for goaltender Calvin Pickard, though. The backup netminder has been rotating with starter Stuart Skinner recently and the results have been positive with Pickard saving 93 of 97 shots (.959 save percentage) over his last three starts. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Oilers continue to give Pickard a decent share of the workload in the short term. It’ll help keep Skinner fresh for the playoffs, and Pickard has earned the increased responsibilities with his 9-4-0 record, 2.27 GAA and .919 save percentage across 14 outings in 2023-24.

New Jersey Devils – TUE VS PIT, THU VS WPG, SAT VS OTT, SUN @ NYI (BTB)

The Devils’ playoff hopes aren’t completely gone, but they’re running out of time to close the gap. New Jersey will spend most of the upcoming week at home, playing against the Penguins on Tuesday, the Jets on Thursday and the Senators on Saturday. They’ll finish the week with a road contest against the Islanders.

Timo Meier has done the most lately to keep New Jersey’s postseason dream alive. Although his 19 goals and 36 points through 53 games this season represent a substantial decline from his 40 tallies and 66 points in 78 contests in 2022-23, he’s excelled recently. Meier’s contributed nine goals and 14 points over his past 10 appearances and has found the back of the net in six of his last seven outings.

Of course, the Devils’ main problem this campaign has been defensive, not its scoring. To that end, New Jersey did add goaltenders Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen at the deadline. Kahkonen made his Devils debut Monday, saving 23 of 25 shots against a tough opponent in the Rangers, though New Jersey didn’t provide him with enough support and lost 3-1 anyway. Allen then made his first Devils start Thursday, turning aside 35 of 37 shots en route to a 6-2 victory over Dallas.

That duo is likely to split the workload the rest of the way. It’s worth warning, though, that to say the Devils had poor goaltending would be to tell only half the tale. The defense in front of those netminders hasn’t done its job either. New Jersey has an xGA/60 of 3.22, which is tied for 23rd in the league, so don’t expect Allen or Kahkonen to put up great numbers in the long run.

Tampa Bay Lightning – TUE @ VGK, THU @ SJS, SAT @ LAK, SUN @ ANA (BTB)

Tampa Bay is unlikely to climb into the top three of the Atlantic Division race, but the Lightning are in a strong position to make the playoffs in a wild-card spot. They’ll continue that fight next week while visiting Vegas on Tuesday, San Jose on Thursday, Los Angeles on Saturday and Anaheim on Sunday. The Kings and the Golden Knights are tough opponents, but the Sharks and the Ducks sit in the league’s basement.

Nikita Kucherov has continued his season-long battle with Nathan MacKinnon for the Art Ross and Hart Trophies. Kucherov is behind the Avalanche star in that race, but just barely with 39 goals and 112 points to MacKinnon’s 42 markers and 115 points. Kucherov is riding a nine-game scoring streak in which he’s supplied three goals and 18 points, so he certainly hasn’t let up.

While MacKinnon has Mikko Rantanen as his complementary forward in the battle, Kucherov has Brayden Point. The 28-year-old Lightning forward was especially effective Thursday, providing a hat trick and six points, bringing Point up to 36 tallies and 73 points in 66 appearances in 2023-24.

Victor Hedman has shined recently too with two goals and six points over his last three games. He’s up to 12 goals and 66 points in 64 contests, which is good for third in the defensemen scoring race behind Cale Makar (73 points) and Quinn Hughes (76).

Of course, those are all headline players with Tampa Bay. One contributor who doesn’t get that level of attention is Anthony Duclair. The Lightning acquired him from San Jose on March 7 and the 28-year-old has gotten off to a good start, providing two goals and three points in two contests with the Lightning. That brings him up to 18 goals and 30 points in 58 appearances this year. Tampa Bay has deployed him at times with Steven Stamkos as well as the Point-Kucherov duo, so Duclair could be in line for a strong finish to the campaign.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE @ PHI, WED @ WAS, SAT VS EDM, SUN @ CAR

Toronto is pretty much set at this point. They do have an outside shot of competing for the first or second seeds in the Atlantic Division but barring a complete collapse or a stunning hot streak, Toronto will almost certainly finish the campaign in the division’s third position. Still, the Leafs will look to stay sharp next week. They’ll play in Philadelphia on Tuesday and Washington on Wednesday before hosting the Oilers on Saturday. Toronto will then conclude the week with a road game versus the Hurricanes on Sunday.

The big question mark regarding the Maple Leafs is the health of Mitchell Marner. He’s dealing with a high-ankle sprain, which is concerning, but Toronto considers it to be a mild variant. Still, he’s set to miss his third straight game Saturday. Given Toronto doesn’t have a lot left to fight for until the playoffs, there isn’t any compelling reason to have him play at anything under 100 percent, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Toronto exercises an abundance of caution when determining his availability going forward.

As long as Marner is unavailable, who plays alongside Auston Matthews remains somewhat in flux. Calle Jarnkrok and Tyler Bertuzzi were his linemates initially Thursday, but Jarnkrok suffered a hand injury and is considered week-to-week. That creates a potential opening for Pontus Holmberg to play on the first unit, which would give him some short-term fantasy value.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on how Nick Robertson is used. He’s been limited to eight goals and 19 points in 41 contests this season but has averaged just 11:22 of ice time and hasn’t even dressed for Toronto since Feb. 29. However, Robertson does have some offensive upside, and the Leafs’ recent injuries might create a new opportunity for him.

Winnipeg Jets – TUE @ NYR, THU @ NJD, SAT @ NYI, SUN @ WAS (BTB)

As noted above, the Jets are competing with Colorado and Dallas for the top seed in the Central Division. The Jets will continue that pursuit next week while playing on the road against the Rangers on Tuesday, New Jersey on Thursday, the Islanders on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.

Gabriel Vilardi has unfortunately been diagnosed with an enlarged spleen. There’s no timetable for his recovery, and we just have to hope that his recovery will go smoothly for him, and after this, he’ll be able to put it behind him.

When he’s healthy, there’s a fair chance Vilardi will play alongside Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele on the first line. As long as he’s unavailable, though, that spot will likely be occupied by Alex Iafallo, who has done well recently, providing two goals and three points in his past four games, which brings him up to 10 goals and 23 points in 65 contests in 2023-24. Iafallo might be worth taking a chance on while he’s playing on the first unit, but even in that role, you shouldn’t expect too much from him.

In the long run, the Jets will probably get more offensive production out of Tyler Toffoli, who is serving on the second line after being acquired from New Jersey on March 8. He has 26 goals and 44 points in 63 outings this season. Toffoli was held off the scoresheet in his first two games with Winnipeg, but it shouldn’t be too long before he starts to find his way with his new team, especially because he’s seeing time on the first power-play unit.

DADOUN: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (January 1st, 2024 to January 6th) – The Penguins complicated Guentzel situation – Flames, Hawks, Rangers, Flyers, Leafs, Canucks, Capitals, Jets to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 30 Dec 2023 16:05:17 +0000

Pittsburgh Penguins Left Wing Jake Guentzel (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

The Penguins are a weird team. In their last five games, they’ve earned a 7-0 victory and suffered a 7-0 defeat. They have the seventh best xGoals Differential/60 at 0.33 and their actual differential is nothing to scoff at either at plus-10 goals, but they’re currently sitting outside of a playoff spot with a 16-13-4 record. No other team has a double-digit differential in the positives without being in a position to make the postseason.

That 7-0 loss aside, the Penguins’ main issue is holding it together when things are close. Pittsburgh is just 5-5-4 in one-goal games and 4-5 in contests decided by two goals. To put that into perspective, Washington, which has a three-point lead on Pittsburgh in the standings despite a minus-13 goal differential, is 10-1-5 in one-goal games.

So, have the Penguins just been unlucky or do they lack that extra something that allows certain teams to perform in clutch situations? The latter would be particularly troubling given that Pittsburgh has been set up for one last playoff push before age catches up to Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang.

Complicating this conversation is Jake Guentzel’s contract situation. He’s playing out the final season of his team-friendly five-year, $30 million contract. The 29-year-old, who has surpassed each of the 35-goal and 70-point milestones three times and might do so again this campaign is in line for a big payday. At the same time, I have to wonder if there’s a bit of hesitation on Guentzel’s part to re-sign with Pittsburgh.

If Pittsburgh is struggling to even make the playoffs now when their aged core is still relatively effective, what will the situation be like in a couple of years? Most likely, by that point, the Penguins will be paying the toll for the win-now moves they’ve made. If Guentzel signs an eight-year deal with Pittsburgh, a lot of that time might be as a member of a rebuilding squad. Is that a problem for him? I don’t know, but it’s a potential wrinkle.

Either way, all isn’t lost for the Penguins in the short term. We’ve seen signs that this team still has life. They just need to be able to find that little extra they too often lack.

Calgary Flames – TUE @ MIN, THU @ NSH, SAT@ PHI, SUN @ CHI (BTB)

The Flames will be on the road next week, but they do have a packed schedule with games in Minnesota on Tuesday, Nashville on Thursday, Philadelphia on Saturday and Chicago on Sunday. None of those adversaries have been especially good this year, though the Wild are one to watch out for after winning 11 of their last 14, bringing them up to 16-13-4.

As a team, Calgary can’t claim to be nearly as hot as Minnesota, but the Flames have seen some superb individual performances recently. Yegor Sharangovich is chief among them, supplying six goals and 11 points over his last 10 contests. He got off to such a slow start this year with two goals and five points through 16 games, but that’s in no small part because he was averaging just 13:42 of ice time, including 0:39 on the power play. By contrast, he’s averaged 20:00 over his last 10 appearances, including 3:23 with the man advantage. If he maintains his present role, which seems probable, then it’s reasonable to pencil the 25-year-old in for 30-40 points over Calgary’s final 47 contests.

Blake Coleman is another player taking advantage of an increased role, though to a lesser degree. He had two goals and three points through 11 games while averaging 15:02 of ice time -- almost none of that on the power play. He’s ballooned to 17:23 per game over his last 10 outings and has rewarded Calgary by contributing six goals and 11 points over that stretch. What’s most encouraging is the Flames have experimented with using him on the power play recently -- he's averaged 2:31 with the man advantage over the past six games -- and while that’s only resulted in one point (a goal) thus far, that position does increase his upside.

Unfortunately for the Flames, things are getting progressively worse for their most expensive player. Jonathan Huberdeau was a massive disappointment last year when he dropped from 115 points to 55, and he’s on pace to do even worse in 2023-24 with just four goals and 15 points through 34 contests. Huberdeau is marred in a 12-game scoring drought. If there’s any silver lining, it’s that he’s still serving in a top-six role, so the 30-year-old is at least being put in a position to rebound. Whether he’ll take advantage of it remains to be seen, but it’s getting increasingly difficult to remain optimistic.

Chicago Blackhawks – TUE @ NSH, THU @ NYR, FRI @ NJD (BTB), SUN VS CGY

The Blackhawks will start the week with road games against the Predators on Tuesday, the Rangers on Thursday and the Devils on Friday before hosting the Flames on Sunday. It’s not an easy schedule but having a full four-game schedule is handy, so it’s worth highlighting the Blackhawks.

In particular, it’s worth keeping Petr Mrazek in mind if you’re looking for starts. With an 8-11-0 record, 3.09 GAA and .907 save percentage in 21 contests, he hasn’t exactly wowed this year, but Mrazek has been quietly effective lately, posting a 2.21 GAA and a .933 save percentage over his last eight appearances. With Arvid Soderblom struggling (0-5-1, 4.71 GAA and .848 save percentage over his past six outings), Mrazek is likely to start in three of the four games next week.

Philipp Kurashev will also be looking to stay hot after supplying a goal and six points over his last seven appearances, including three helpers over his past two games. It helps that he’s playing alongside Connor Bedard, who has factored into 10 of Kurashev’s last 11 points.

Speaking of Bedard, he’s on a five-game scoring streak in which he’s collected three goals and eight points. That gives the 18-year-old rookie 13 goals and 30 points through 33 outings.

New York Rangers – TUE VS CAR, THU VS CHI, SAT @ MTL

The Rangers have just three contests next week, but they’re winnable games. They’ll start by hosting Carolina on Tuesday and Chicago on Thursday before playing in Montreal on Saturday. The Hurricanes are in a playoff spot, but the Rangers’ other adversaries aren’t.

It’ll give Mika Zibanejad to extend his amazing run. He’s recorded at least a point in eight straight games and 16 of his last 17 outings. He had a slump from Nov. 2-20 in which he was limited to an assist over seven outings, but from Nov. 22 onward, Zibanejad ranks fourth in the league with 25 points (11 goals) over 17 appearances.

Of course, the Rangers expected Zibanejad to respond going into the campaign, but what they were going to get out of the 37-year-old Blake Wheeler was less certain. After inking a one-year, $1.1 million deal over the summer following his buyout, Wheeler was initially a nonfactor, collecting just two goals and six points through 26 contests this season. Something’s clicked recently, though, allowing him to supply three goals and eight points over his last seven outings.

New York’s schedule is spread out enough that Igor Shesterkin might start in all three games, but Jonathan Quick has been seeing action around once every three contests, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Rangers use him during this stretch. Keep an eye out for that because Quick’s been a fantastic backup this year with a 9-1-1 record, 2.27 GAA and .920 save percentage in 12 outings.

Philadelphia Flyers – TUE @ EDM, THU VS CBJ, SAT VS CGY

The Flyers will start the week with a challenging matchup in Edmonton on Tuesday, but then they have a pair of home games against the 11-18-7 Blue Jackets on Thursday and the 14-16-5 Flames on Saturday.

Those latter two contests should help Joel Farabee in his quest to surpass his career high of 39 points, which he set last year. The 23-year-old has made huge strides in 2023-24 with 12 goals and 24 points in 34 outings. He’s been particularly effective lately, providing a goal and four points over his past two outings.

Farabee’s linemate, Bobby Brink, is on a bit of a roll too, recording a point in each of his last three contests. The 22-year-old rookie is up to six goals and 17 points in 29 appearances. It’s not enough to put him in the conversation for the Calder Trophy, but it’s a solid start to what could be a good career. His playing time is somewhat modest at 14:50 per contest, which limits his production, but Brink is at least worth considering as a short-term pickup while he’s hot.

Owen Tippett isn’t getting a ton of playing time either -- just 15:15 per game -- but he has made the most of what he’s been given with 12 goals and 21 points through 33 outings. The 24-year-old has been especially productive recently, supplying at least a point in four straight outings and six of his last eight appearances.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE @ LAK, WED @ ANA (BTB), SAT @ SJS

The Maple Leafs will play in Los Angeles on Tuesday and Anaheim on Wednesday before hosting the Sharks on Saturday. While the Kings are a top-tier team, the Ducks and the Sharks sit in the NHL’s basement and rank 22nd and 32nd, respectively, in terms of goals allowed per game.

It’ll be an opportunity for Auston Matthews to pad his numbers. The superstar forward has 28 goals in 30 contests, including a stunning 14 tallies over his last 10 appearances. William Nylander can’t match Matthews in terms of goals, but he’s still having an amazing campaign in his own right with 16 markers and 45 points through 31 contests. Nylander is riding a 12-game scoring streak during which he’s provided four goals and 19 points -- and that’s on top of his season-opening 17-game point streak.

The rest of the Maple Leafs haven’t been nearly as impressive recently, though of course Mitchell Marner and John Tavares are still star forwards. Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi and Matthew Knies have their moments too. That trio of supporting forwards hasn’t been nearly as consistent as Toronto might like, but against competition like Anaheim and San Jose, any one of them is capable of excelling.

Vancouver Canucks – TUE VS OTT, THU @ STL, SAT @ NJD

Vancouver leads the league with 3.78 goals per game and its offense is likely to keep rolling given the state of its upcoming competition. The Canucks will host the Senators (28th defensively with 3.50 goals allowed per game) on Tuesday, play in St. Louis (19th, 3.26) on Thursday and conclude the week with a contest in New Jersey (29th, 3.55) on Saturday.

It might be a good time to pick up Teddy Blueger if he’s still available. That’s a sentence that hasn’t been written much over the course of the 29-year-old’s career -- after all, his career high in points stands at just 28 -- but he’s riding a seven-game point streak in which he’s supplied three goals and nine points.

Dakota Joshua is another middle-six forward who has caught fire with five goals and eight points over his last seven outings. Don’t expect him to keep this up -- the 27-year-old had just 23 points in 79 appearances last season -- but he’s a nice short-term option while he’s hot and Vancouver’s opponents feature leaky goaltending.

Of course, there are also the usual suspects too. Defenseman Quinn Hughes is having an amazing campaign with 10 goals and 45 points in 36 contests and is likely to take full advantage of the Canucks’ favorable upcoming schedule.

Washington Capitals – TUE @ PIT, WED VS NJD (BTB), FRI VS CAR, SUN VS LAK

The Capitals will start the week by visiting their main rival in Pittsburgh on Tuesday. From there, Washington will host the Devils on Wednesday, the Hurricanes on Friday, and the Kings on Sunday.

Washington has struggled offensively this year, averaging only 2.34 goals per game, and the Capitals have scored three or fewer goals in each of their last seven contests, so things don’t seem to be getting any better. Aliaksei Protas is one of the few forwards doing well recently. He’s on a four-game scoring streak and has six helpers over his last seven outings.

Anthony Mantha is also surging with four goals over his last three outings. That’s pushed him up to 10 markers through 32 contests, making him the third Capitals player to reach double digits in goals this year.

Charlie Lindgren and Darcy Kuemper might evenly split next week’s four-game set. Kuemper has been a mixed bag this campaign, but Lindgren has excelled with a 2.29 GAA and a .928 save percentage in 14 contests. He’s allowed just three goals on 56 shots (.946 save percentage) over his last two starts.

Winnipeg Jets – TUE VS TBL, THU @ SJS, FRI @ ANA, SUN @ ARI

The Jets have a full schedule of four games next week, though all those contests will be on the road. They’ll face the Lightning on Tuesday, the Sharks on Thursday, the Ducks on Friday and the Coyotes on Sunday. That set between San Jose and Anaheim in particular should be good for the Jets.

Winnipeg is still without Kyle Connor, who hasn’t played since Dec. 10 because of a knee injury. What partially compensates for that is that the Jets got Gabriel Vilardi back from a knee injury Nov. 30. It took him a few games to shake off the rust, but he has seven goals and 13 points over his last eight contests.

Nikolaj Ehlers has also stepped up during Connor’s absence. He averaged 15:47 of ice time before Connor’s injury and in the seven games Winnipeg has been without the star forward, Ehlers has supplied four goals and 10 points while logging 18:21 per contest.

Laurent Brossoit will probably start against either Anaheim or San Jose during that back-to-back set, so the Jets’ backup goaltender is slated to have a favorable matchup. Brossoit’s done well this year with a 2.49 GAA and a .911 save percentage in eight contests.

DADOUN: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Sharks show some bite in tough season – Coyotes, Hurricanes, Avalanche, Devils, Islanders, Maple Leafs, Canucks and Golden Knights – Players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 09 Dec 2023 16:09:54 +0000

BOSTON, MA - NOVEMBER 30: San Jose Sharks left wing Fabian Zetterlund (20) takes a shot in warm up before a game between the Boston Bruins and the San Jose Sharks on November 30, 2023, at TD garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

This column was previously getting released at the start of the week, but starting today, it will come out Saturdays instead. It’ll still preview the upcoming week, but now you’ll have more time to plan your strategy. Please bear in mind that the information provided is reflective of the time of writing (in this case, the morning of Dec. 8).

That aside, I wanted to cast a light on San Jose, which has won five of its last seven games. The Sharks have been fun to watch recently with them overcoming a 4-1 deficit against the Islanders on Tuesday and a 4-0 deficit to the Red Wings on Thursday. After a 0-10-1 start to the campaign that included back-to-back games in which they surrendered 10 goals, the Sharks are now 8-17-2. Still not good, but given where they came from, that’s impressive.

Looking at their last seven games specifically, the big change for San Jose has been its offense. The Sharks have scored 4.00 goals per game over that span, compared to 1.09 over their first 11 outings. Tomas Hertl has been an important factor in their recent surge, providing five goals and nine points over his last six appearances, but the real standout performer has been Mikael Granlund, who went from recording four assists over his first 13 contests to contributing three goals and 12 points over his last seven outings.

The Sharks have gotten some support team-wide too. Seven different players have supplied at least two goals over the past seven games, including three markers from defenseman Jacob MacDonald, who had just three goals over 101 career NHL games going into this campaign.

Is this sustainable, though? Probably not. The Sharks don’t have a particularly good team. Goaltenders Mackenzie Blackwood and Kaapo Kahkonen are still struggling, so if the offense cools from its unreal pace, then the whole house of cards will likely crumble again. Plus overcoming three- or four-goal deficits is fun to watch, but not something that can be counted on to happen routinely.

It is encouraging to see youngsters William Eklund, who has two goals and five points over his last four contests, and Fabian Zetterlund, who has four goals and five points over his last seven games, do well though. They’re the future of the franchise, so strong performances from them matter much more to San Jose than whether the squad is winning or losing today.

Arizona Coyotes - MON @ BUF, TUE @ PIT (BTB), FRI VS. SJS, SAT VS. BUF (BTB)

The Coyotes enjoyed a five-game winning streak from Nov. 25-Dec. 4, bringing them up to 13-9-2 by the end of that run. After spending a few years rebuilding, Arizona has a real shot of making the playoffs this year.

Of course, the Coyotes still have a lot of work ahead of them, which they’ll continue next week with games in Buffalo on Monday and Pittsburgh on Tuesday, followed by home contests versus the Sharks on Friday and Sabres on Saturday. Those adversaries range from bad to middling this campaign, so the Coyotes should do well.

With two back-to-back sets, Karel Vejmelka should get some work for the first time since Nov. 22. He’s struggled this campaign with a 2-6-2 record, 3.45 GAA and .892 save percentage in 11 contests, so he’s not an ideal option for a situational pickup. That said, if he draws the Sharks, then it might be worth considering him (provided San Jose has cooled by that point).

If Alex Kerfoot is still available in your league, he’d be a good pickup. He’s one of the hottest players in the league with a goal and nine points over his last five contests. Part of that surge is thanks to him getting an increased role. Over his first 15 contests this campaign, he had a goal and four points while averaging 15:01 of ice time, including just 0:18 with the man advantage, but that’s jumped to 18:57 over his last 10 contests, including 2:21 on the power play. So, while he obviously can’t maintain the offensive pace of his last five games, as long as Arizona keeps deploying him like it has recently, Kerfoot should continue to be a valuable forward in most fantasy leagues.

Someone else to consider in the short-term but is less likely to have long-term success is Michael Carcone. He has five goals over his last five contests, but his shooting percentage has climbed to an unsustainable 32.4 and he serves in a bottom-six role, so expect him to crash completely once the hot streak is over.

Carolina Hurricanes – TUE @ OTT, THU @DET, FRI VS NSH (BTB), SUN VS WAS

The Hurricanes will start the week by completing their six-game road trip with games in Ottawa on Tuesday and Detroit on Thursday. They’ll then get an opportunity to defend PNC Arena when they host the Predators on Friday and the Capitals on Sunday. Detroit’s been pretty good this campaign, but Nashville is the only other opponent currently in a playoff position, and even then, just barely.

Andrei Svechnikov couldn’t play Thursday due to an upper-body injury. If it turns out he won’t be available for some or all of next week’s games, then that will have a significant impact on Carolina’s lineup. In particular, Michael Bunting could play a major role during Svechnikov’s absence. When Svechnikov missed the first eight contests of the campaign because of a knee injury, Bunting had two goals and six points in eight contests while averaging 18:12 of ice time. Since then, Bunting has dropped to 13:45 while providing four goals and 10 points over 17 games.

We also might see Brendan Lemieux playing consistently during Svechnikov’s absence. Lemieux isn’t much of a factor offensively, but if you’re in a position where you’re looking for penalty minutes, he can help you there. Through 10 appearances this season, he’s accumulated 33 PIM and the 27-year-old has 517 PIM in 285 career games.

On the power play, there might be an opportunity for Brady Skjei to assume a second-line role. He has four goals and 15 points in 29 contests this season, which is great for a defenseman who is averaging just 0:13 with the man advantage. Even a second unit power-play role would be a potentially meaningful boost for him.

Colorado Avalanche – MON VS CGY, WED VS BUG, SAT @ WPG, SUN VS SJS (BTB)

The Avalanche will play four games next week, including home contests against the Flames on Monday, the Sabes on Wednesday and the Sharks on Sunday. Sprinkled in there will also be a road outing in Winnipeg on Saturday. Of those opponents, just Winnipeg is in a playoff position. The Sharks have won five of their last seven games, though, so it’ll be interesting to see if they’re still hot by the time that contest happens.

Speaking of hot players, Nathan MacKinnon is on a 10-game scoring streak, providing four goals and 16 points over that stretch, including two goals and five points over his last two contests alone. Through Thursday’s action, MacKinnon has moved into a three-way tie for fourth in the scoring race with 36 points in 26 outings.

The Avalanche don’t have any other players who are currently excelling, though. Bowen Byram is interesting with two goals and three points over his last four contests. He might be worth some short-term consideration, but the lack of a consistent power-play role is a significant negative.

We also should see Ivan Prosvetov start this week, likely Sunday versus San Jose. He’s been decent when utilized, posting a 2-1-1 record, 2.45 GAA and .919 save percentage in six contests this season, so if you’re looking for a situational pickup in goal, then Prosvetov is a good option.

New Jersey Devils – WED VS BOS, SAT @ CBJ, SUN VS ANA (BTB)

The Devils are a borderline selection because they have just three games this week and their first contest is a home game versus the mighty Bruins on Wednesday. However, New Jersey will then face two of the worst teams in the league with matches in Columbus on Saturday and against the Ducks on Sunday.

If you look at the league leader in terms of points per game, it isn’t Nikita Kucherov, Artemi Panarin or Connor McDavid. That honor instead belongs to Jack Hughes, who has 10 goals and 33 points in just 19 contests. Hughes missed five straight games from Nov. 5-16 due to a shoulder injury but has bounced right back. In particular, he scored four goals and 10 points over a four-game stretch from Nov. 28-Dec. 5. Provided he stays healthy the rest of the way, Hughes is a good bet to surpass his career high of 99 points.

Hughes is far from New Jersey’s sole offensive threat with the team averaging 3.63 goals per game -- fourth in the NHL. However, that’s been counterbalanced by the Devils allowing 3.67 goals per contest, which is the second worst in the league. Their expected goals against per 60 is 3.27, which suggests that part of the problem is New Jersey’s defense, but its goaltending has been lacking too.

Vitek Vanecek is having a disastrous campaign with a 3.60 GAA and an .877 save percentage in 16 contests. The fact that he has a 9-5-0 record despite that is a testament to the Devils’ amazing offense, but for a team with playoff aspirations, Vanecek isn’t looking like an acceptable option. Lately, that’s led to New Jersey pivoting more toward Akira Schmid.

Schmid struggled initially with a 3.46 GAA and an .885 save percentage through his first six appearances in 2023-24, but since then he’s rebounded with a 3-2-0 record, 2.53 GAA and .920 save percentage in five outings. With the 23-year-old outplaying Vanecek, Schmid has a real opportunity to steal the No. 1 gig, which could lead to him accumulating a lot of wins given the offensive support New Jersey can provide.

New York Islanders – MON VS TOR, FRI VS ANA, SAT @BOS (BTB)

The Islanders will start the week with home games versus the Maple Leafs, Ducks and Bruins on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, respectively, before visiting Montreal on Saturday. Toronto and Boston are tough adversaries, but Anaheim and Montreal rank near the bottom of the league, and it helps that the Islanders will be playing mostly at home next week.

Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat have been playing some of the best hockey of their lives recently. Barzal has four goals and 11 points over his last four games, propelling him to nine goals and 27 points in 24 outings this year. Meanwhile, Horvat is on a five-game scoring streak in which he’s scored four goals and nine points, bringing him up to nine markers and 23 points through 24 appearances in 2023-24.

The Islanders have been getting offensive help from less common sources too. Julien Gauthier has two goals and five points in five contests this year. You can consider taking him in the short term, but keep in mind that he’s a depth forward, so once his hot streak ends, he won’t have value in anything but the absolute deepest of leagues.

Similarly, Simon Holmstrom is averaging just 13:38 of ice time this year, so he hasn’t been getting a big enough role to warrant holding him in standard fantasy leagues. However, Holmstrom is an interesting short-term option after scoring two goals and four points over his last four contests.

Toronto Maple Leafs – MON @ NYI, TUE @ NYR (BTB), THU VS CBJ, SAT VS PIT

The Maple Leafs’ schedule isn’t necessarily easy, but it is full with four games ahead of them. They’ll start the week with games in New York versus the Islanders on Monday and the Rangers on Tuesday. Afterwards, the Leafs will return home to host the Blue Jackets on Thursday and Penguins on Saturday.

Goaltender Joseph Woll sustained a leg injury during Thursday’s 4-3 victory over Ottawa and is expected to miss time. He had been serving as the Leafs’ top goaltender, but the injury will at least temporarily force Toronto to pivot back to Ilya Samsonov, who has missed the last two games due to an illness but will presumably be fine by next week. Samsonov has a 3.58 GAA and an .878 save percentage in 10 contests, so he’s been far from ideal, but he shouldn’t be dismissed after recording a 2.33 GAA and a .919 save percentage in 42 outings last season.

Martin Jones might also get a start next week depending on how long Woll is out for. Don’t expect too much out of Jones, though. He had a 3.09 GAA and an .895 save percentage in 220 NHL games from 2018-19 through 2022-23 and more recently has posted a 3.37 GAA and an .870 save percentage in five outings with AHL Toronto. Simply put, he’s not a good option. You might want to keep Dennis Hildeby in the back of your mind, though. The 22-year-old excelled in the Swedish Hockey League and has looked dominant in the AHL this campaign with a 1.89 GAA and a .925 save percentage in nine contests.

Putting the Maple Leafs’ goaltending aside, the team has been led by the usual suspects recently, which is to say that Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews and William Nylander have combined for seven goals and 12 points over Toronto’s last three games. Meanwhile, Max Domi has provided a goal and an assist over his last two contests. He’s been inconsistent offensively, which is unlikely to change so long as he’s averaging just 12:54 of ice time, but he’s an interesting short-term pickup while he’s hot, especially if you’re in a position to benefit from the penalty minutes he can provide.

Vancouver Canucks – TUE VS TBL, THU VS FLA, SAT @ MIN, SUN @ CHI (BTB)

The Canucks will kick off the week by hosting the Lightning on Tuesday and the Panthers on Thursday. They’ll then travel to Minnesota for a contest Saturday and face the Blackhawks in Chicago on Sunday. Those later two games are of particular interest given that they’re against teams not in playoff spots.

Sam Lafferty has bounced around the lineup this campaign, but lately, he’s been playing alongside Elias Pettersson and Ilya Mikheyev. That’s a golden opportunity for the 28-year-old, who has seven goals and 13 points in 27 contests this year. He’s also doing well at the moment with two goals and three points over his last three games. Be careful not to get too excited about Lafferty, whose career high in points is just 27, but his fantasy value will increase meaningfully if his current top-six role proves to be more than just a temporary assignment.

One Canucks player who has trended in the other direction recently is Andrei Kuzmenko. After scoring 39 goals and 74 points in 81 contests last year, the 27-year-old has been limited to four goals and 15 points over 24 outings in 2023-24, including just one point (a goal) over his last eight appearances. Things got so bad that he was even a healthy scratch for two straight games from Nov. 24-25 and he logged just 12:15 of ice time Thursday, his second-lowest total of the season.

While I don’t expect Kuzmenko to repeat his 2022-23 heights, he certainly can do better than he has lately. Given his recent play and his diminished role (which I believe to be temporary), he’s a solid buy-low candidate.

Vegas Golden Knights – TUE VS CGY, FRI VS BUF, SUN VS OTT

Vegas has just three games scheduled next week, but they’re all home contests against teams not in a playoff position. Specifically, the Golden Knights will host the Flames on Tuesday, the Sabres on Friday and the Senators on Sunday.

Jack Eichel is easily the hottest member of the Golden Knights with four goals and nine points over his last four contests, pushing him up to 12 goals and 30 points in 27 contests in 2023-24. Alex Tuch has already worked out great for Buffalo while Peyton Krebs and Noah Ostlund still might be good for the Sabres in the long run, so it’d be overly simplistic to call Vegas the winners of the Eichel trade, but the Golden Knights nevertheless must be thrilled with how that move has worked out.

Ben Hutton has been a bit of a disappointment, though, at least from a fantasy perspective. With Shea Theodore (upper body) unavailable, Hutton has averaged 2:17 of power-play ice time over the last seven contests, up from an average of just 0:25 over his first 14 outings. However, Hutton has just a goal and an assist over his last seven games and neither of those points came with the man advantage. Hutton’s never been much of an offensive force anyway, but it is a shame that he hasn’t gotten any production out of that power-play role.

If Daniil Miromanov (undisclosed) returns before Theodore, then he might take that power-play spot from Hutton. In that scenario, Miromanov would have some fantasy value.

*(BTB) – Denotes the second of a back-to-back series

FANTASY: The Week Ahead – November 6th to 12th – Teams to target with trending players and opportunities

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 06 Nov 2023 18:44:20 +0000

SAN JOSE, CA - NOVEMBER 02: Vancouver Canucks defenseman Filip Hronek (17) skates with the puck during the NHL professional men’s hockey game between the Vancouver Canucks and San Jose Sharks on November 2, 2023 at the SAP Center in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire)

Last week I posed the question: Are the San Jose Sharks historically bad? Since then, they’ve been outscored 20-3 over the span of two games. I’m not going to make a second straight article headlined by the Sharks but…yikes.

Still, there’s a team sadder than them: The Edmonton Oilers. The Sharks might be the worst team this year, perhaps even the worst team ever assembled, but they were never supposed to be good. By contrast, the Oilers are actually trying to win the Cup, and yet they’re 2-7-1.

With each passing year, the possibility of squandering the luxury of having Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl together becomes even more real. After all, this is the ninth year they’ve been together. It’s not like it’s bound to get much easier either: Draisaitl is signed until the summer of 2025 at $8.5 million and after that, he’ll either demand a massive raise or, if he doesn’t think Edmonton is going anywhere, he’ll move on in the hopes of pursuing the Cup in the back half of his career. If Draisaitl leaves, McDavid could follow in the summer of 2026.

So, the stakes are very high, but can Edmonton rise to the occasion? There’s still time, even if they have dug themselves into a deep hole, but at this point, I think the only way for them to make the playoffs and compete for a spot is to somehow acquire a solid goaltender. That’s not a small ask. Teams with good goaltending aren’t exactly jumping to part with it, but Jack Campbell has been dreadful in Edmonton (a 3.53 GAA and an .886 save percentage through 41 contests with the Oilers), and while Stuart Skinner might rebound, the young goaltender isn’t a safe enough bet.

To be clear: This is on the goaltending. Edmonton’s expected goals allowed ranks eighth this season at 31.66, so the defense has been doing its part. The Oilers forwards have gotten off to a sluggish start, but the pieces are there, so I have faith that Edmonton’s forwards will come through. Unless the goaltending changes, though, that likely won’t matter.

Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim has three home games this week, hosting Pittsburgh on Tuesday, Philadelphia on Friday and San Jose on Sunday. The Sharks are, of course, the worst of those teams, but the Penguins have struggled too, posting a 4-6-0 record. Sure, Pittsburgh earned a 10-2 win Saturday, but…it was against the Sharks.

The Ducks are red hot, winning five straight going into the week. Mason McTavish has been a big part of that, scoring five goals and eight points during the run, which brings him up to 12 points through 10 contests this season. I don’t expect him to maintain his offensive pace, but he should easily surpass his 43-point rookie finish.

Ryan Strome is hot too, contributing two goals and eight points over his last eight outings. He did miss Wednesday’s contest, but don’t worry about that -- it was just an illness, so he should play Tuesday.

In net, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Anaheim continue to lean heavily on Lukas Dostal, who has started in the last three contests. His GAA isn’t great (2.80), but he has a fantastic save percentage (.920), and with the quality of the Ducks competition this week, Dostal has a solid chance of picking up another two wins.

Dallas Stars

The Stars have a busy week ahead of them. First, they’ll host the Bruins on Monday, then they’ll make stops in Columbus on Thursday, Winnipeg on Saturday and Minnesota on Sunday.

Dallas is off to a 7-2-1 start, partially thanks to its deep offense. Even Matt Duchene, who was scoreless over his first four contests with the Stars, settled in, recording a five-game point streak from Oct. 24-Nov. 2 (two goals, three assists). However, he exited Saturday’s game after sustaining an upper-body injury on a high hit from Vancouver’s Ian Cole, so his status for Monday’s outing is in question.

Radek Faksa is also dealing with an upper-body injury, and if both miss time, then Sam Steel might have an opportunity to serve in a middle-six role and even get some power-play ice time. Steel isn’t a major offensive force, but that opportunity is worth keeping in mind, given Dallas’ packed schedule. If Duchene is healthy, though, he’d be worth leaning on given his recent play.

Digging deeper, Mason Marchment has some short-term value. The middle-six forward’s looked strong lately, collecting two goals and four points over his last five appearances.

Florida Panthers

The Panthers have been up-and-down thus far, earning wins against strong competition like New Jersey on Oct. 16, Toronto on Oct. 19 and Detroit on Nov. 2 while also being one of just two teams to deny Boston a regulation-time victory (Florida lost 3-2 in overtime Monday). However, the Panthers also suffered a 5-2 loss to the lowly Blackhawks on Saturday and are 5-4-1 overall.

This week will be a test for the Panthers with home games against Columbus, Carolina and Chicago on Monday, Friday and Sunday, respectively, as well as a road match versus Washington on Wednesday. Those are all winnable games. Carolina (7-5-0) and Washington (5-4-1) do have PTS% over .500, but not by much.

Anton Lundell should make for a good pickup this week. The 22-year-old was held off the scoresheet for the first five contests of the campaign, but he’s provided a goal and three points over his last five games. His increased production goes hand-in-hand with added responsibility, jumping from an average of 13:27 of ice time during his slump to 16:41 over his last five outings.

It might also be a big week for Sergei Bobrovsky, who has a 4-3-1 record, 2.51 GAA and .913 save percentage through eight appearances this year. This week’s contests are spread out enough that he could start in all four, which might be exactly what the Panthers do, given how sparingly they’ve used Anthony Stolarz. It’s also not like Stolarz demanded an expanded role Saturday -- he stopped 19 of 23 shots in a 5-2 loss to Chicago.

New York Rangers

The Rangers will look to build off their incredible 8-2-1 start with a home stretch against Detroit on Tuesday, Minnesota on Thursday and Columbus on Sunday. The Red Wings have done well themselves (7-4-1), but the Wild and Blue Jackets are off to mediocre starts.

It will be a challenging stretch for New York, though, because Adam Fox (lower body) and Filip Chytil (upper body) were hurt Thursday and will not be an option this week. Their absence forces the Rangers to make significant changes, particularly on the power play.

Erik Gustafsson is now likely to serve on the top power-play unit, so his fantasy value will go up meaningfully during Fox’s absence.

Meanwhile, without Chytil, Blake Wheeler might see time on the second power-play unit. Wheeler has been used sparingly by New York -- just an average of 11:58 per game -- and he consequently has just one assist through 11 contests. The 37-year-old finished the 2022-23 campaign with 16 goals and 55 points in 72 outings, though, so even in the tail end of his career, he can still chip in offensively under the right circumstances.

Artemi Panarin should still run the show, though. He has six goals and 18 points in 11 contests this year and is showing no signs of slowing down, providing three goals and 10 points over his last five outings.

San Jose Sharks

The Sharks are obviously bad, but they do have a full schedule this week. They’ll host Philadelphia on Tuesday and Edmonton on Thursday before visiting Vegas on Friday and Anaheim on Sunday.

If that schedule belonged to any other team, I wouldn’t hesitate to include them, but is there anyone playing for San Jose who has fantasy value? Certainly not its goaltenders, who have combined for a 4.75 GAA and an .873 save percentage.

What about on offense? San Jose has averaged 1.09 goals per game, so the pickings are slim there too. However, Tomas Hertl did have two assists Saturday, bringing him up to a goal and seven points in 11 contests. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him do some damage this week, particularly against Edmonton’s shaky goaltending.

Anthony Duclair might be worthy of a short-term pickup as well. He has just two goals and three points in 11 contests, but he’s not far removed from his 58-point campaign in 2021-22. Plus, the upside of being with San Jose is he does get a solid amount of playing time, including first power-play unit responsibilities.

Keep an eye on William Eklund too. The 21-year-old has just a goal and an assist, but the 2021 seventh-overall pick does have considerable upside and is getting top-six minutes.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning will complete their four-game road trip with visits to Toronto and Montreal on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Then they’ll spend some time at home while facing the Blackhawks on Thursday and the Hurricanes on Saturday.

Outside of Tampa Bay’s usual suspects, Alex Barre-Boulet is doing very well, collecting three goals and six points over his last six outings. The 26-year-old is an interesting one because he was never drafted and had just nine points in 32 contests going into this campaign. However, he earned this opportunity by excelling in the AHL, finishing the 2022-23 campaign with 24 goals and 84 points in 69 appearances with Syracuse, and has shown that his skills can translate to the top level. Barre-Boulet is averaging just 13:14 of ice time, but some of that’s with Nikita Kucherov, so if he’s available in your league, he’s worth taking a chance on.

If you could use a source of hits, Tanner Jeannot can fill that role during the Lightning’s busy week. He has 34 hits in 11 contests thus far and should maintain that aggressive play. Jeannot will probably continue getting into trouble, too, after accumulating 13 PIM this campaign. On the offensive side, he’s not a huge asset, but his two goals and five points are respectable for this stage of the season, and the 26-year-old consistently plays on the second power-play unit.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto has dropped its last four games, bringing its record down to 5-4-2. That’s not so bad that it’s time to panic -- The Maple Leafs started 4-4-2 last year en route to a 50-21-11 campaign -- but it’s fair to say some serious questions about the team’s viability as contenders have been raised.

They’ll have an opportunity to step up this week with a key home stretch featuring the Lightning on Monday, Senators on Wednesday, Flames on Friday and Canucks on Saturday. While those aren’t easy teams, though Calgary is 3-7-1, playing at home should help.

What would help more is if the supporting cast stepped up for the Leafs. The Core Four of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitchell Marner and John Tavares have done their part, combining for an incredible 26 goals. That’s more goals than the entirety of the Blues or Capitals and more than double the Sharks.

The rest of the forward core is a barren wasteland, though. Matthew Knies has just two goals and four points, Max Domi has four helpers and Tyler Bertuzzi has two markers and three points.

Calle Jarnkrok is showing a bit of life, though. He has a goal and five points this campaign but has registered a point in back-to-back contests. The Leafs have been doing so line juggling, but Jarnkrok has seen time recently alongside Matthews and Marner, which certainly helps his potential value. If you’re going to gamble on any non-star Toronto player, Jarnkrok seems like the best bet right now.

Bertuzzi might be a good buy-low candidate. He’s struggled to find his rhythm with Toronto, but he’s a capable top-six forward who should turn things around. He certainly has reason to want more out of himself, given that he’s playing on a one-year contract.

Vancouver Canucks

Vancouver will start the week hosting the struggling Oilers before facing Ottawa, Toronto and Montreal on the road on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday, respectively. The Canucks are off to an 8-2-1 start and on a three-game winning streak, so they couldn’t be much hotter entering this batch of contests.

Elias Pettersson is leading the offense with six goals and 20 points in 11 contests this campaign, while defenseman Quinn Hughes isn’t far behind, providing four goals and 16 points. However, Vancouver also has gotten help up and down the lineup.

Filip Hronek is on a six-game point streak and has collected 11 helpers this year. He’ll slow down at some point, but for now, he’s a great component to any fantasy team.

If Ilya Mikheyev is still available in your league, he’s worth scooping up over the short term. Mikheyev has never recorded more than 32 points in a single campaign, but injuries are a big part of the reason why. He also missed the start of the 2023-24 campaign after undergoing ACL surgery in January, but since returning, he’s provided three goals and six points in seven outings. He’s been playing alongside Pettersson, and as long as that remains the case, Mikheyev should be productive.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Mon, 09 Oct 2023 19:07:29 +0000

Review: With a 50-21-11 record, the Maple Leafs earned 111 points in 2022-2023, the second-highest point total, and fourth highest points percentage in franchise history. Although Toronto was mediocre in terms of shot attempts, ranking 12^th with 52.2% score-and-venue-adjusted Corsi, they did manage to have strong shot quality results, ranking sixth with 54.3% of expected goals. Toronto ranked 11^th with 3.40 goals per game, and for a team that gets criticized frequently for their defensive play, the Leafs finished fifth with 2.71 goals against per game. They also won a playoff series for the first time since 2003-2004 but losing in five games to Florida in the second round put a quick halt to any optimism generated by Toronto’s first-round victory over Tampa Bay. The Leafs have been a strong team, legitimate contenders, but their lack of postseason success looms over everything, and it will be that way until they start delivering results.

What’s Changed? The Maple Leafs replaced GM Kyle Dubas with Brad Treliving, previously of the Calgary Flames, and the Leafs did complete some tidy business in free agency, getting Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, Dylan Gambrell, and enforcer Ryan Reaves up front. They took a chance on veteran defenseman John Klingberg, whose defensive play has been plummeting in recent seasons, but has plenty of experience as a puck-moving blueliner who can quarterback a power play. There is obviously a focus on the Maple Leafs adding grit with Reaves, Bertuzzi, and Domi, though the potential offensive impact of Bertuzzi, Domi, and Klingberg, may be more valuable.

What would success look like? After so many years of losing in the first round, or not making the playoffs at all, the Maple Leafs have reached a point at which winning a playoff round is the minimum and for the season to be considered a success, that will likely require winning at least two rounds, some kind of postseason achievement that goes beyond their frequent disappointments. The good news for the Leafs is that they have the horses to do it. Whether they advance or not, there is little doubt that Toronto has enough talent to achieve more, but until they actually do it, questions will linger.

What could go wrong? It is possible that the Maple Leafs could have a great regular season, playing at an elite level, and they could still get bounced in the first round of the playoffs. That’s easy enough to imagine. If things were to really go wrong for Toronto, it would probably mean a long-term injury to Auston Matthews. It’s not as if the Leafs don’t have other valuable players, but Matthews is the premier goal-scorer that is most difficult to replace. Toronto has enough depth that it can handle some injuries, but if the injuries involve more than one of The Core Four, that could make it more difficult for Toronto to remain a playoff team.

Top Breakout Candidate: On a veteran-laden Maple Leafs team, rookie winger Matthew Knies is the player most likely to have a breakout season. Knies flashed exciting potential in his first taste of NHL action last season, with one assist in three regular-season games before adding four points in seven playoff games. He is a winger with good size and can be a real handful for opposing defenders when he is working down low in the offensive zone or along the boards. Knies may be ticketed for the third line to start the season but has the potential to fill a spot in the top six and if he does that, the rookie could have an instant impact.

Forwards

Auston Matthews

After becoming the first player to score 60 goals in a season in the prior 10 seasons during the 2021-22 season, Auston Matthews took a step back in 2022-23. He only managed 40 goals in 74 games this time while recording one fewer assist at 45. Perhaps, one could consider this a floor for the 26-year-old veteran. As he enters his eighth season, last season’s 12.2% shooting percentage is by far his career low. If he had shot his career average of 15.7% last season, he would have scored 51 goals on his 327 shots. While his shooting percentage may fluctuate, he has ranked no lower than sixth in the NHL in shots on goal per 60 among regular skaters over the last three seasons. Moreover, regression to the mean should not be the only thing driving a bounce-back year for Auston Matthews, as the addition of Tyler Bertuzzi in place of Michael Bunting offers Matthews another elite playmaker as a potential linemate at even strength, and a contributor on the powerplay. Matthews is entering the 2023-24 season with 299 regular season goals, and he does not want it to end with fewer than 350.

Mitchell Marner

Mitch Marner ended his seventh NHL season just one point shy of 100 – a feat he has not accomplished yet in his career thus far. The 26-year-old started his career exclusively known for his playmaking abilities. His shot was seen as weak, although his selection of shots brought him up to a respectable shooting percentage. In the 2021-22 season, Marner jumped to a 35-goal season, converting 15.6% of his shots on goal. Marner followed that up with another 30-goal season with a shooting percentage of 15.3%. This additional threat to opponents that Marner has crafted has brought his game to another level, securing his spot as one of the most dangerous offensive players in the game. It may have also contributed to Toronto’s ability to split the duo up at times. In the 2021 shortened season, Marner spent 84.7% of his 5-on-5 minutes with Matthews. Last season, he spent only 47.3% of his full-strength time with Auston Matthews, spending slightly more time with John Tavares and a combination of wingers. The defensive side of Marner’s game is also well-crafted, enabling Sheldon Keefe and the Maple Leafs coaching staff to use him on the penalty kill as well. He has been on the ice for 44.0% of the Maple Leafs shorthanded time over the last four seasons in games that he has played. The 2023-24 season could be the year Marner surpasses 100 points.

William Nylander

The 2022-23 season featured 19 players with 40 or more goals, and William Nylander was one of them. His 40 goals and 47 assists were career-highs, and his 82 games played was his second complete season of his career. While much of the narrative surrounding Nylander is that he is inconsistent, that only applies to his defensive effort and attention to detail. He has recorded around a point-per-game since seeing an increase in his powerplay usage in the 2021-22 season. He has also been a healthy player most of his career, missing the most time in the 2018-19 season where he held out from signing an extension until December. While his lack of injury history and consistent dual-threat offensive production should make projecting Nylander’s 2023-24 season rather easy, the addition of Tyler Bertuzzi could threaten his powerplay time and therefore his production. A demotion to the second powerplay unit would likely cost around 0.2 points per game. With Nylander’s contract expiring after this season, and with the Maple Leafs intending to re-sign him to an affordable price before he goes to unrestricted free agency, a tie for the first unit time probably goes to someone else.

John Tavares

John Tavares ended the 2022-23 regular season with 36 goals and 44 assists – the first time he cleared the 30-goal mark since his first season as a Maple Leaf in 2018-19. In a saturated Toronto market, the Maple Leafs captain is due to receive scrutiny. However, that scrutiny generally revolves around the comparison of how much he is paid relative to the value he provides on the ice. He ranked 30^th in points last season, and 42^nd the season prior, reflecting a player that is still very good. When the 2023-24 season gets underway, Tavares will be 33 years of age. The forward-thinking Maple Leafs have already begun reducing his time-on-ice over the years. Last season, he played 1.8 fewer minutes per game in all situations, and 2.1 fewer minutes per game at 5-on-5 than he did in the shortened 2019-20 season. The risk to his ice time being cut much further is the latest addition in Toronto of Tyler Bertuzzi. The Maple Leafs coaching staff may conclude that Bertuzzi is the better option at the front of the net on the first powerplay unit, forcing Tavares to win a spot at the bumper or move to the second unit. While it may be best for the team, a demotion off the first powerplay unit would hurt Tavares’ individual stats dramatically.

Tyler Bertuzzi

Tyler Bertuzzi likely entered his contract year in Detroit knowing it would be his last there. He would also miss two of his last five months with the Red Wings out with upper body injuries, the latest being a wrist injury in December. On March 2, Bertuzzi was sent to Boston to chase a Cup with the Boston Bruins. There, he would find success with David Pastrnak. His playmaking abilities from all areas of the offensive zone at even strength and on the powerplay made a dangerous Bruins offense even more dangerous. Bertuzzi was able to score four goals and 12 assists in 21 games with the Bruins as opposed to his four goals and 10 assists in 29 games with the Red Wings. With the lethal shooters that the Maple Leafs have, Bertuzzi’s gritty playmaking style will fit right in. He could be a reasonable option for the first powerplay unit, as the Bruins saw with Jake DeBrusk out of their lineup. The question surrounding Bertuzzi is how much his shooting percentage will rebound. Bertuzzi converted over 16% of his shots on goal in each season from 2018-19 thru 2021. Last season he shot only 7.5% and suffered a wrist injury. If his recent wrist injury has hampered his shooting form, the Leafs did not sign the 30-goal scorer from the 2021-22 season, but a much lesser version of Tyler Bertuzzi.

Max Domi

Following the 2019-20 season, Max Domi left Montreal for a two-year contract in Columbus. Despite the Blue Jackets team lacking forward depth, particularly at center, Domi immediately saw a two minute drop in time on ice per game. During the 2021-22 season, he was traded to the Hurricanes for their playoff run, before signing a one-year contract to be a rental again, going from Chicago to Dallas. Last season could’ve been considered a slight revival for the 5’ 10” forward, scoring 20 goals for the second time in his career. This was partially due to being a shark in a small pond, seeing a hefty amount of powerplay minutes and receiving ice time while behind on a tanking Chicago roster. His biggest weakness is his poor defensive play. This is something that caused him headaches in Columbus and could cause headaches once again with Sheldon Keefe. He is also not an individual play-driver, passing the puck to teammates too quickly at times. And his career faceoff percentage of 48.2% is far from optimal. The Maple Leafs are hoping that Domi can be an effective middle-six passenger at even strength, and a staple on their second powerplay unit. With that, he should see his minutes drop back down again this season, as well as his point total.

David Kampf

For his third season in a row, David Kampf did not miss a single game last season. He also posted another new career-high with 27 points in his 82 games. New general manager Brad Treliving must have thought so highly of the Czech forward that he signed him to a four-year extension in June, days prior to him entering unrestricted free agency. Toronto acquired Kampf from Chicago as a distressed asset in 2021, after he scored only a single goal in 56 games. The Maple Leafs turned around and used him as a staple defensive center in their bottom six. He is a smart player with efficient skating. That duo has led to his success at even strength as well as on the penalty kill. He won’t offer much offensive flare, only crossing 100 career points in his sixth season, but his health, ability to stay out of the box, effectiveness in the faceoff circle, and dependability on the defensive side of the game will keep him in the lineup for years to come. And while you shouldn’t expect too much, perhaps he has a few goals left in him this season.

Calle Jarnkrok

After eight seasons with the Nashville Predators, the Seattle Kraken selected Calle Jarnkrok in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. In his last season in Nashville, he recorded 28 points in 49 games, the highest pace of his career. As a part of an underperforming Seattle team, and a deep Calgary team that pushed him down the lineup, the Swede would fall back to 30 points in 66 games. However, when he explored free agency, Toronto showed interest, signing him to a four-year contract. With the Maple Leafs, Jarnkrok is expected to be an effective, dependable passenger to play-driving linemates. He bounced around from linemate-to-linemate last season, spending no more than 33.9% of his minutes with any forward. He spent some time alongside John Tavares and Auston Matthews with Mitch Marner, but also played down on the third line with the likes of Pierre Engvall and Alex Kerfoot. He scored 20 goals for the first time in his career last season, but he had a massive jump in shooting percentage at 18.9% compared to a career 12.5%. Will his linemates be able to keep his production high, possibly helping him break 40 points, or will he regress back this season?

Sam Lafferty

A fourth-round pick in the 2014 NHL Draft, Pennsylvania-native Sam Lafferty scrapped his way into the Pittsburgh Penguins lineup, playing 50 games in his rookie season in 2019-20. However, it was a move to the Blackhawks early in the 2021-22 season that would help Lafferty break out and make a name for himself in the league. In Chicago, Lafferty would become a regular penalty killer. After scoring four goals and an assist in 99 shorthanded minutes in Chicago last season, the Maple Leafs traded for his services for their playoff run. His breakout wasn’t just limited to his penalty killing prowess, but respectable production at even strength as well, tallying 12 goals and 15 assists in all situations. Lafferty is a speedy bottom six forward, posing a threat to opposing defensemen trying to move the play up the ice against him. His speed may also give him the opportunity to find a spot on the third line at either wing or center in the case of injuries. However, with a healthy lineup, Lafferty should see a slight fall in his production, moving down the lineup in a more defensive role with the Maple Leafs as opposed to the unassigned role with a tanking Blackhawks team.

Defense

Morgan Rielly

Following the November 21^st game against the Islanders, news broke that Morgan Rielly was expected to miss six weeks with a knee injury. His main competition on the roster, Rasmus Sandin, would see an increase in minutes in his absence. The young, Swedish defensemen would play well with the increased minutes, scoring two goals and six assists in the 13 games he played before sustaining a small injury himself. Sandin’s offensive skill set on the back end posed a threat to Rielly’s powerplay and even strength usage. However, come trade deadline, Kyle Dubas and the Toronto Maple Leafs elected to move Rasmus Sandin for a first-round pick and a rental. With Sandin gone, there is even more certainty that Morgan Rielly will own the greatest share of powerplay minutes amongst his teammates on the back end. This offers security to his production, as Rielly has not had fewer than a half a point per game since the 2016-17 season where he only recorded 72 minutes on the powerplay. Morgan Rielly has been seen as the best offensive defenseman on the Maple Leafs roster for some time now, and Toronto reassured their view of that last season.

John Klingberg

Following the 2021-22 season, John Klingberg tested free agency for the first time after not coming to an agreement with the Dallas Stars. With only a small increase in the cap, a market for a long-term extension at the price he wanted dried up. His solution was a one-year deal with the Anaheim Ducks, with the understanding he’d likely move to a playoff team come trade deadline. Unfortunately for Klingberg, he is left with another one-year deal, but on a contending team this time. The 6’ 3” Swedish defenseman has the box score stats of a defenseman who normally would sign long term. And while market conditions may have forced him into a short-term deal again, his extremely poor defensive play has also reduced his market value. Klingberg is looking for a bit of a revival in Toronto. A once free to roam, mobile defenseman became trapped in conservative and unorganized systems at the end of his tenure in Dallas and his short time in Anaheim and Montreal. With a system that is likely a better fit, and a reduction in his usage, Klingberg could find success on the bottom two pairs and on the second powerplay unit.

Timothy Liljegren

After a breakout rookie season with the Maple Leafs in 2021-22, Timothy Liljegren followed it up with much of the same. He scored six goals and 12 assists in 67 games this time, a five point decrease from the year before due to six fewer secondary assists. Liljegren is arguably the best puck-mover on the right-hand side of Toronto’s defensive core, electing to move the puck away from his own net as soon as possible as his main form of defending. But his lack of traditional defending and physical nature is one of the reasons the Maple Leafs coaching staff hasn’t allocated more minutes to him in the past. Liljegren did see a slight uptick in both even strength and special teams minutes last season, but his security in a top four spot was not there as witnessed by being scratched in the playoffs. With Justin Holl out of the picture, Liljegren’s competition for that secured spot will be John Klingberg. If he can prove that he is worthy of taking a spot from a fellow Swede seven years his senior, he could make a big jump. If he fails to do so, at least in the eyes of his coaching staff, then we can expect more of the same from Liljegren, or even a move at the deadline.

Jake McCabe

After missing most of the 2021 season due to injury, Jake McCabe left the Buffalo Sabres for the Chicago Blackhawks in unrestricted free agency. In his first season in Chicago, he would set a career-high 22 points for himself in 75 games. Last season, he finished with another career-high with 25 points in 76 games split between Chicago and Toronto. Jake McCabe earns his NHL minutes with his defensive prowess. He has received top four minutes at even strength and is a main stay on the penalty kill. His 151 blocked shots ranked 21^st among defensemen last season, and his 163 hits ranked 23^rd. Playing his first full season in Toronto, McCabe can expect to take the heavy minutes with defensive zone deployment and tough matchups. In his 350 minutes in Toronto last spring, he spent 169 with fellow defensive-defenseman TJ Brodie. However, he spent limited minutes with Timothy Liljegren who may complement his style of play by assisting with breaking out the puck and following through in transition with the forwards. There is a chance that McCabe’s point production falls if he is put in a dramatic role, but his time on ice will certainly be high.

Goaltending

Ilya Samsonov

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in an intriguing situation to start the 2023-24 season in net, and Ilya Samsonov remains just one piece of the somewhat uncertain puzzle.

Samsonov is quick on his feet, prefers to keep his body moving as he challenges plays, and still maintains the wider stance that has characterized his game – and set it apart from so many other goaltenders in the NHL – since he first crossed the pond as a Washington Capitals prospect. That makes him fast, exciting, and good at accessing some of those higher-danger shots that slower and more methodical goaltenders just don’t seem capable of reaching. But it also makes him less predictable, both for opponents and from a statistical standpoint. And although he finished last season with one of the league’s most respectable save percentages, he remained a little too injury-plagued to feel altogether comfortable tabbing him as a long-term option for success in Toronto. He’s the reclamation project that came out on top, with tandem partner Matt Murray likely out of the picture entirely, but he’s still not a sure shot for Toronto. It seems the team knows that, too; while they could have started the season with just him and wunderkind Joseph Woll as their options to roll out, the cap-strapped Leafs went out and brought in some veteran insurance at the last minute in the form of yet another reclamation project. Martin Jones will join Woll and Samsonov to start the season, and while he’s likely the odd man out, the fact that Toronto signed him in the first place suggests that they aren’t completely sold on the tandem they have to work with just yet.

Projected starts: 40-45

Joseph Woll

It seems all but impossible that Toronto goaltending prospect Joseph Woll would clear waivers if the Leafs tried to hide him away in the AHL for another season, and his lack of waiver exemption status this year forces their hand a bit; it’s do or die time for the team and the former Boston College standout.

That’s not super concerning from a technical standpoint, since Woll has been one of the most impressive young goaltenders in North America for a handful of years now. He was the confident and collected predecessor at BC to Spencer Knight, controlling his crease at the collegiate level in a way that suggested he’d be a perfect candidate to make a short stop in the minors before taking over at the NHL level almost immediately upon going pro. Then, he suffered multiple consecutive injuries, and his development arc derailed just enough that Toronto was left scrambling; now, they’re stuck trying to navigate a need to get him into games, a starter who has been streaky over his career both in numbers and in health, and an aging Martin Jones who hasn’t hit league average stats in over half a decade. The good news, though, is that he plays the kind of game that should make it easy for Toronto to integrate him into their lineup whenever they need; he plays a game that focuses on keeping control of his depth and angles from his feet in order to eliminate the need for extra movement, serving as an interesting foil to Samsonov’s wild style. It’s unclear just what Toronto wants his role to be next year, but we’re likely only a season or two away from seeing Joseph Woll as the team’s clear-cut number one – it’s just a matter of figuring out how Toronto wants to handle the passing of the torch.

Projected starts: 30-35

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Did the Leafs add enough to finally get over the first-round playoff hump?

Scott Cullen — Fri, 14 Apr 2023 16:05:34 +0000

TAMPA, FL - APRIL 11: Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Brandon Hagel (38) and Toronto Maple Leafs right wing William Nylander (88) during the NHL Hockey match between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs on April 11th 2023 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)

For the second straight season there is a solid case to be made that the Toronto Maple Leafs are better than the Tampa Bay Lightning. Not by a lot, necessarily, but the Maple Leafs finished higher in the standings, with a better goal differential, and superior puck possession numbers.

Is that going to be enough for the Maple Leafs to finally get over the first-round playoff hump for the first time since 2003-2004?

Forwards

Auston Matthews battled through a wrist injury and still finished with 40 goals, after scoring 60 goals last season. He seemed to be in fine form in the latter stages of the year, putting up 14 goals and 28 points with 114 shots on goal in his last 22 games. If the Leafs are going to win the series, they will need Matthews and Mitch Marner to elevate their play for the postseason. Both have managed 33 points in 39 career playoff contests and that’s respectable, but Toronto needs even more from their star forwards. It is fair to wonder about the Leafs’ scoring depth. William Nylander had his first 40-goal season and John Tavares remains productive, but there is a thinner cast of productive forwards behind the Big Four.

Ryan O’Reilly adds something to the lineup when healthy, and both Calle Jarnkrok and Michael Bunting have proven to be useful complementary pieces, but someone in the supporting cast needs to step up. Maybe it will be rookie Matthew Knies, who has recorded one assist in three games since joining the Leafs after his University of Minnesota season ended with a loss in the national championship game.

Tampa Bay has elite talent with a track record of playoff success. Nikita Kucherov has 93 points over the past three postseasons, most in the league by a long shot. Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon ranks second with 64 and Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point ranks third with 61. Steven Stamkos has 33 points in 47 games across the past three playoffs, missing most of the 2019-2020 Stanley Cup run. With three straight trips to the Final, Tampa Bay has received ample secondary scoring.

Alex Killorn and Anthony Cirelli have been contributors throughout Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup runs while Ross Colton, Brandon Hagel, Nick Paul, and Corey Perry have joined the fray more recently. The expectation was that Tanner Jeannot might offer some more toughness and scoring depth after he was acquired from Nashville, but a late season lower-body injury could prevent him from being ready for the start of the playoffs.

Defense

For all of the changes that the Maple Leafs have made to their blueline in recent seasons, there are still going to be questions about how strong this group is heading into the playoffs. Toronto ranks seventh in shots against and 11th in expected goals against per 60 minutes, but the results since the trade deadline are not quite as encouraging. Since adding Jake McCabe, Luke Schenn, and Erik Gustafsson, the Leafs rank 18^th and 20^th, respectively, in those categories. McCabe and T.J. Brodie have formed an effective shutdown pair while Mark Giordano and Justin Holl are competent, but there are legitimate concerns about the performance of Morgan Rielly, whose ice time has dropped under 20 minutes per game over the past month, and Luke Schenn, who has been getting caved in consistently since returning to Toronto. Timothy Liljegren offers a steady alternative, but only if head coach Sheldon Keefe includes him in the lineup.

When the Lightning have been making their runs to the Stanley Cup Final, they have had a strong defensive record and this season has revealed some vulnerability on that front, with higher-than-average rates of shots and expected goals against. Mikhail Sergachev busted out with the best season of his career, scoring 64 points while playing nearly 24 minutes per game.

For the first time in a long time Victor Hedman was not a standout on the Tampa Bay blueline, showing more defensive vulnerability, but he has produced 59 points in 71 games during Tampa Bay’s last three playoff runs, so he could easily be a difference maker once again. Erik Cernak and Ian Cole are effective shot suppressors while Nicklaus Perbix and Darren Raddysh have been seeing more regular action than Zach Bogosian. Overall, though, this group represents an area of legitimate concern for Tampa Bay.

Goaltending

With Matt Murray injured, Toronto has a lot riding on Ilya Samsonov, a 26-year-old who had the best season of his career, posting a .919 save percentage while starting a career-high 40 games. However, he has modest playoff experience, with just one win in seven career postseason starts. Any goaltender that achieves playoff success has to start somewhere.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is the standard bearer among active goaltenders for playoff performance. Not only has he started 71 games in the past three postseasons, but he has delivered a .928 save percentage, which is tops among goaltenders to appear in at least 10 games. With Tampa Bay’s suspect defense, the Lightning will need an epic performance from the 2021 Conn Smythe Trophy winner. That is not out of the question, but it is the first time in a while that Tampa Bay has been so dependent on its star netminder.

Special Teams

Given the top tier talent on these teams, it comes as no surprise that both clubs have fared well with the man advantage. Toronto ranks fourth with 9.25 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play and Tampa Bay is close behind in fifth with 9.10 goals per 60.

Maple Leafs captain John Tavares tallied 18 of his 36 goals on the power play and Auston Matthews added 13. Tampa Bay’s top triggermen on the power play were Brayden Point, who scored 20 of his 51 goals with the man advantage, and Steven Stamkos, who added 14.

Toronto’s penalty killing is a strength, ranking fifth with 5.72 goals against per 60 minutes during four-on-five play, thanks largely to allowing the lowest rate of high danger shot attempts in those circumstances. That does offer Toronto an edge over Tampa Bay, which ranks 15^th with 7.21 goals against per 60 during four-on-five play.

Conclusion

The Maple Leafs were right there with the Lightning in last year’s playoff matchup, ultimately losing in Game 7, but this year’s version of the Lightning is not quite as formidable. There is the possibility that the Lightning can just flip the postseason switch and be ready for another Stanley Cup run, but it looks like Tampa Bay has slipped enough that the Maple Leafs can finally earn a first-round victory. Maple Leafs in 6.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:49:24 +0000

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 26: Toronto Maple Leafs Center Auston Matthews (34) watches the replay of his 60th goal with Right Wing Mitchell Marner (16) during a break in the action during the regular season NHL game between the Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs on April 26, 2022 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.(Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Auston Matthews

The Hart Trophy winner, Lester Pearson winner, and back-to-back Rocket Richard winner just had career highs of 60 goals and 106 points in 73 games last season. He has 101 goals in 125 games over the past two seasons, 15 more than anyone else, which should comfortably label him as the best goal-scorer in the game now. Not only does he have an incredible release on his shot, but Matthews’ all-around game continues to improve. He had dominant possession numbers last season and generated a career-high 4.77 shots on goal per game. Matthews has rare shooting ability as it is, so if he is getting that many shots, the goals are almost inevitable. He will face criticism until his team achieves some measure of playoff success, but Matthews has reached a top tier of individual performance in the regular season. Another 60-goal, 100-point season is within range for Matthews, and it should not be taken for granted how exceptional it is that he can score goals at this rate.

Mitch Marner

Perhaps the ideal complement to Matthews on the Maple Leafs’ top line, Marner is a creative and confident playmaker who primarily fills the setup role but also increased his own shot output last season, averaging a career high 3.11 shots per game. In the past four seasons, Marner has accumulated 325 points, tied with Auston Matthews for eighth in total points. On top of his fantastic offensive contributions, Marner is a smart defensive player who kills penalties and, as a result, has averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game for three straight seasons. Marner is a better bet to score 30 goals now that he is shooting more and could tally 95 points. If he manages to stay healthy for a full season, a 100-point season is possible.

John Tavares

There seemed to be a lot of criticism for the Maple Leafs captain, especially considering he just had 76 points in 79 games. His possession numbers were negative relative to his teammates for the first time since his rookie season in 2009-2010. He is still a force on the power play and remains highly effective inside the tops of the circles in the offensive zone. Now that he is on the north side of 30, decline is likely to be a factor but for a highly skilled player the decline tends to be more gradual as opposed to crashing off a cliff. For that reason, Tavares should still be a productive option as a second-line center on one of the league’s highest scoring teams. Even with some decline, 75 points is a fair expectation for Tavares.

William Nylander

A brilliant talent who can be maddening and frustrating in one moment and a delightful game-breaker the next. When Nylander is on, he is unquestionably a star player because even on a Maple Leafs team that has its share of star players, there were many nights in which Nylander was the best player on the ice. He has a knack for getting breakaways, which helps him stand out. For a player who gets dogged by his inconsistent performance, it was heartening to see Nylander as such a productive player throughout the season. His longest scoreless streak was three games, which happened on three different occasions, and he ended up with career highs of 34 goals and 80 points. As great as that season was, it is probably reasonable to expect a little less from Nylander this season, something in the range of 30 goals and 70-75 points.

Michael Bunting

A favorite of Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas since his time playing junior hockey in Sault Ste. Marie, Bunting signed as a free agent with the Maple Leafs and reveled in his opportunity to skate on the top line alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Although he barely qualified as a rookie, Bunting was the leading rookie scorer with 63 points, and he finished third in Calder Trophy voting. While Bunting does not have the all-world skill of his linemates, he is a terrific complement to them because Bunting battles hard for loose pucks and fearlessly goes to the net. Bunting is also an agitator extraordinaire, able to get under the skin of the opposition with remarkable ease, and the Maple Leafs need a player who brings that feisty style of play on a regular basis. So long as he sticks with Matthews and Marner, another 60-point season is possible for Bunting, but he does come with downward mobility because any other line is not going to afford him the same quality of scoring opportunities.

Alexander Kerfoot

Although the 28-year-old did produce a career high 51 points last season, his underlying numbers were troubling, and he generated very few shots – 1.43 per game – for a player getting the opportunity to play with skilled linemates. Kerfoot spent more time on the wing which makes sense because he had won 44.0% of his faceoffs since arriving in Toronto. His low shot rates are a concern but if Kerfoot is going to spend most of the season playing with John Tavares and William Nylander, there is still room for him to contribute secondary scoring. Maybe that’s only a dozen goals, but he should also produce more than 40 points.

Calle Jarnkrok

Versatility has long been a strength to Jarnkrok’s game, as he has the ability to play any of the three forward positions and can do it in either a complementary offensive role or more of a checking role. That allows him to fit into a team’s middle six forwards and he was reasonably effective with Seattle last season but then had zero goals and four assists in 17 games with the Calgary Flames. He added a goal and three assists in the playoffs, so he ended up scoring a single goal in 29 games for Calgary. It is not as though Jarnkrok is a big-time scorer, since he has never scored more than 16 goals in an NHL season, but that poor production was not Jarnkrok’s best performance. He has had five seasons of more than 30 points in his NHL career and if Jarnkrok is going to have a top-nine role in Toronto, he should be able to generate 30-35 points. There is a good chance that his flexibility will allow Jarnkrok to play in several different spots throughout the season, depending on where there is an urgent need.

Pierre Engvall

After getting up to speed in the NHL for a couple of seasons, the long and lean 6-foot-5 left winger broke through for 15 goals and 35 points in his third NHL campaign. That offensive production raised Engvall’s profile because now he had a path to contributing more than he could in a fourth line role. Engvall plays a sound defensive game but, as he showed last season, the 26-year-old has the required skill to play in the top nine and on the second power play unit. That is the kind of internal development that any team would like to experience with a player who was once a seventh-round pick. While Engvall’s 35-point season was better than he ever had produced in a previous NHL season, his production was not inflated by high percentages, so it is reasonable to expect Engvall to score in the 35-point range again this season.

David Kampf

An excellent checking center who scored a career high 11 goals and 26 points last season, Kampf did benefit from a career-high shooting percentage of 10.8%, which was notably higher than his career mark of 7.5%. For whatever limitations he might have in his game, Kampf does fill the niche of a fourth line center who can kill penalties and take on the toughest assignments with defensive zone starts. Any offensive projections for Kampf need to be conservative, just based on his track record, but he could still deliver 20 points for the Maple Leafs from the fourth-line center spot.

DEFENSE

Morgan Rielly

The 28-year-old blueliner has anchored the Maple Leafs defense and has played more than 23 minutes per game in each of the past four seasons. He put up 10 goals and 68 points last season, both representing the second highest totals of his career. Rielly is a confident puck-moving defenseman who also has some defensive deficiencies. However, his offensive abilities tend to overshadow his inconsistent play without the puck. He had a 20-game stretch starting on December 1 during which he put up 26 points in 20 games and that kind of production will tend to gloss over missed defensive assignments. Rielly has had seasons with big offensive explosions – last season he had 68 points, in 2018-2019 he had 72 points – but those are aberrations. A forecast in the 55-point range would also incorporate some of the seasons in which Rielly’s point totals did not skyrocket.

Mark Giordano

Acquired from the Seattle Kraken before the trade deadline last season, Giordano has declined some as he is in his late thirties but remains a highly effective player. He finished last season with 35 points after tallying 12 points in 20 games with the Maple Leafs. He did not shoot the puck very much in Toronto, averaging 1.40 shots per game, compared to 2.24 shots per game in Seattle. The value to Giordano, especially at this stage of his career, is that he can still move the puck efficiently and play a reliable defensive game. He could match the 35 points he accumulated last season. While his on-ice shooting percentage (12.7%) was inflated at the end of the year with Toronto, Giordano’s on-ice shooting percentage (7.6%) in Seattle was on he very low end of his career range, so somewhere in the middle would still bring a productive complementary scoring defenseman.

T.J. Brodie

Even though he does not play as much of an offensive puck-moving role that he did during his peak years in Calgary, the 32-year-old defenseman adds some stability in Toronto’s defensive zone. While he can still move the puck, that is an aspect of the game that Brodie appears to have pushed into the rearview mirror. He still skates well and is a reliable defender, which should not be overlooked, but Brodie has surpassed 30 points six times in his career and finished with 28 points last season so it’s not out of the question that he could get to 30-plus points again with a few breaks.

Jake Muzzin

While Muzzin brings a physical presence that other Maple Leafs defensemen do not, he struggled during the 2021-2022 season. He and frequent partner Justin Holl were inconsistent together and it was the first time since 2016-2017 that Muzzin was outscored during 5-on-5 play as well as the first season of Muzzin’s career in which his team had better shot differentials when he was off the ice. As a 33-year-old who plays a physical game and has run into injury issues in recent seasons, it is possible that decline is setting in and Muzzin is simply not going to be the force that he had been previously. If that is the case, then maybe he becomes a reliable third-pair option, but he has played more than 20 minutes per game for eight straight seasons, so it would be premature to suddenly expect that Muzzin’s role is going to be reduced. The first option is probably to give him a bona fide chance to prove that he can perform better than he did last season. Health will determine Muzzin’s offensive upside but if he puts up 25 points while providing a strong physical defensive presence, that ought to be plenty valuable for the Maple Leafs.

GOALTENDING

Matt Murray

It was just two years ago that the Pittsburgh Penguins opted to finally part ways with goaltender Matt Murray, dealing him to the Ottawa Senators to free up their depth chart and give him an opportunity to rediscover his game on a more consistent level. In some ways, it seems like the move worked for Murray; he hasn’t backslid any farther in his development, and he had some stretches with the Senators last year where he appeared to have returned to the form he boasted when he made his league debut. But ultimately, the gamble the Senators made – hoping that a new environment would help Murray look more like the two-time Stanley Cup champion instead of the inconsistent backup he’d become – fell short; just two years into the four-year extension they signed him to back in 2020, they’ve moved him within division for what may end up being one final attempt to get his game back on track. He’ll try to put it all together under the tutelage of his long-time off-season coach Jon Elkin in Toronto, where the familiarity of a voice that’s familiar with his game and style will compete with the high-pressure environment presented by playing for the Leafs.

Murray’s quirks remain as dogged as ever, though. He still has a tendency to stay in motion until the puck arrives in the blue paint, which leaves him vulnerable to oversliding his posts and overshooting his positioning. It also makes it harder for him to effectively use his hands, as he lacks a grounded central position from which to make sharp glove saves and bat pucks away with his blocker; while his fluid movements keep him from looking too stiff or slow, he struggles with accuracy at a position that can’t afford mistakes made by inches. He should be granted a bit of relief, of course, playing behind Toronto after two years in Ottawa; while his own game was far from perfect, the porous defensive structure he backstopped left little room for him to smooth out the errors he needed to work away from. It was a tough scenario for a goaltender looking to bounce back; hopefully, the supercharged offense and step-up defensive roster he’ll move behind this upcoming season will help him level things out.

Projected starts: 40-45

Ilya Samsonov

It seems like it was only a few years ago that Washington was touting the Russian-born Samsonov as their next big thing. After falling short of expectations for just one too many seasons, though, the Capitals opted to start fresh entirely – and Toronto, seemingly in the market for reclamation projects under 30, were ready to welcome Samsonov into the fold to tandem with Matt Murray.

At his best, Ilya Samsonov has the speed and strength to get to even the least likely of shots – and he’s got the kind of aggression that leaves shooters unsure of just what he’s willing to do, challenging out to the top of his crease in a league where more and more netminders are opting for a more patient, conservative approach instead. Like Murray, though, Samsonov has a tendency to stay in motion past the point where he’d benefit from holding his edges and waiting for the puck to come to him; with the kind of wider, lower stance that goaltenders like Jonathan Quick and Sergei Bobrovsky favor and the kind of aggression that few outside of Alex Stalock embrace anymore, Samsonov leaves a lot of holes in his corners ripe for the picking. There will always be an element of ‘what if’ to Samsonov’s game; he was drafted when the expectation was that he would develop under the guidance of former Capitals goaltending guru Mitch Korn, who frequently had a heavy hand in selecting goaltenders for the team to acquire that would fit his development style well. Korn was off to the New York Islanders by the time Samsonov hit the NHL, though – and even though Scott Murray is a well-respected name as Korn’s replacement in DC, Samsonov never quite seemed to live up to the expectations his first-round selection status seemed to set. It’s likely he isn’t being brought into Toronto to be the heir apparent, as Matt Murray is an existing pupil of Jon Elkin already. But Elkin’s history of working magic with other energetic-but-uncontrolled names like Mike Smith in the past made it hard not to wonder just what he can do to help right the ship for Samsonov, as well.

Projected starts: 40-45

J.T. Come Home – Toronto Maple Leafs 2018-19 Season Preview

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 14 Sep 2018 15:16:27 +0000

REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – Fueled by then rookies Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner, the Toronto Maple Leafs surprised some by making it to the playoffs in 2016-17 and thus created an air of cautious optimism going into 2017-18. The campaign proved to be a small step forward for Toronto with them posting a 49-26-7 record that set franchise-highs in wins and points.

Toronto got there by scoring the second most goals in the league without having anyone hit the 70-point milestones. Instead, the Maple Leafs had six players with at least 20 goals and 10 with at least 40 points. When it came to the playoffs, the Maple Leafs took the Boston Bruins to Game seven, but ultimately suffered their second straight first round exit.

Auston Matthews

LIVING THE DREAM – What do you do when your offense is among the best in the league, but there are questions surrounding your blueline? If you’re Kyle Dubas, the newly elevated general manager for Toronto, you double down on that strong offense by convincing John Tavares to fulfill his childhood dream of playing for the Maple Leafs. Signing UFA Tavares to a seven-year, $77 million contract gives the Maple Leafs a second world-class center along with Auston Matthews and allows them to assign Nazem Kadri to the third line, a role he’s overqualified for.

Exactly how all the Maple Leafs’ offensive weapons will be utilized is the enviable assignment of head coach Mike Babcock, but it’s anticipated that Tavares will end up playing primarily with Mitch Marner while Matthews will continue to be paired up primarily with William Nylander. Those combinations give Toronto a one-two punch that rivals any in the league. It also makes the summer departures of forwards James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak seem acceptable. That’s not a small feat given that van Riemsdyk and Bozak combined for 47 goals and 97 points last season, but it speaks to how big an impact and ripple effect the signing of Tavares is anticipated to have.

Outside of Tavares, Toronto didn’t do much in the way of make noteworthy additions over the summer. Their next biggest signing was Tyler Ennis, who agreed to a one-year, $650,000 contract. It’s a low-risk gamble on the idea that Ennis might be able to bounce back after recording just 16 goals and 46 points in 147 games over the last three seasons. It’s entirely possible that nothing of note will come of the move, but it’s the type of bargain bin signing the Maple Leafs will likely have to engage in much more frequently going forward now that they’re task with handling Tavares’ $11 million cap hit while also finding a way to keep their young core of Matthews, Nylander, and Marner under their control for years to come.

PROTECTING THEIR END – There is no doubt that the Maple Leafs are set up to score goals, but of course they need to at least be serviceable in their own end otherwise they’ll suffer a fate similar to the 2017-18 New York Islanders that Tavares departed. The Maple Leafs are going to be relying on basically the same defense that they had last season, which isn’t a nightmare scenario, but it is the main source of uncertainty going into the season.

It also once again presents Frederik Andersen with a tremendous amount of responsibility. Among goalies that played at least 25 games, Andersen led the league with 33.5 shots per game and he could find himself with a similar workload this season. Toronto was a success because Andersen held his own under heavy pressure with a .918 save percentage. If he can’t do as well this season or he suffers a significant injury then that alone could sink Toronto. The Maple Leafs do have some fallback options like Curtis McElhinney, who was solid in limited use last season, and Garret Sparks, who was voted as the AHL’s top goaltender for 2017-18, but neither has proven themselves in the NHL in the same way as Andersen.

OUTLOOK – The Maple Leafs were already a playoff team on the rise and the addition of Tavares makes them look like a serious Stanley Cup contender. There are some areas of concern with this team, but the sheer amount of talent upfront might be enough to push them far if the rest of the players around that core can at least be serviceable.