Nick Ritchie – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Dach, Mikheyev and Hagel Taking Advantage of New Opportunities, Major Injuries in Edmonton and Colorado, Surprising Goaltenders offering Value

Scott Cullen — Fri, 11 Nov 2022 18:36:21 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, players like Kirby Dach, Ilya Mikheyev, and Brandon Hagel taking advantage of new opportunities, major injuries in Edmonton and Colorado, plus some surprising goaltenders that could offer value right now.

MONTREAL, QC - NOVEMBER 05: Montreal Canadiens center Kirby Dach (77) plays the puck during the Las Vegas Golden Knights versus the Montreal Canadiens game on November 05, 2022, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The Chicago Blackhawks sure seemed to move on quickly from Kirby Dach, the 21-year-old center who was the third pick in the 2019 Draft, when he was traded to the Montreal Canadiens at the 2022 Draft. Dach did not have instant success in Montreal but seems to have found a great spot on the right wing of the Habs’ top line alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. In the past six games, Dach has delivered nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 12 shots on goal, and is starting to show the talent that made him such a high pick in the first place.

#2 Ilya Mikheyev busted out for the Toronto Maple Leafs last season, scoring a career-high 21 goals in just 53 games. He signed in Vancouver as a free agent and has had an instant impact skating on a line with Elias Pettersson and fellow Russian winger Andrei Kuzmenko. In his past seven games, Mikheyev has produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal. For the season, he is playing 17:20 per game, up more than two minutes per game from his ice time in Toronto last season.

#3 The Tampa Bay Lightning brought in winger Brandon Hagel last season to provide forward depth and he was effective in that role. With the Lightning forward group thinned out by injuries and offseason departures, there is now an opportunity for Hagel to contribute more and he is taking advantage of that. He has produced 11 points (5 G, 6 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past eight games, landing on the top line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. Anyone getting a chance to play with those two is going to be worth a look and Hagel’s production gives him a chance to stick there for a while.

#4 The Edmonton Oilers are going to have to make do without left winger Evander Kane for the next 3-4 months after he had his wrist accidentally stepped on by Tampa Bay Lightning winger Pat Maroon. Kane is such an important player for Edmonton and there is not likely going to be a trade to make up for his absence. That means that internal options are the way forward. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are important as the proven complementary pieces in the top six, but Jesse Puljujarvi is getting another crack higher on the depth chart and rookie Dylan Holloway is looking at the best opportunity of his young career. Holloway, the 14^th pick in the 2020 Draft, played a career-high 15:15 in Thursday’s loss at Carolina.

#5 The Colorado Avalanche have been without left winger Valeri Nichushkin since October 25, but it has now been announced that he will miss a month of action after having ankle surgery. Nichushkin was off to an incredible start, with 12 points (7 G, 5 A) in seven games before getting hurt. With Nichushkin and captain Gabriel Landeskog out, Colorado is trying a second line Alex Newhook, Evan Rodrigues, and Martin Kaut. While Newhook and Kaut might have longer range potential, Rodrigues is the one with the most fantasy value right now. He has five points (3 G, 2 A) during a four-game point streak, and he is getting first unit power play reps for the Avalanche.

#6 For years, Dallas Stars left winger Jamie Benn was a premier fantasy hockey performer, scoring a bunch and adding big hit totals to give him elite value at a relatively shallow position. Benn is no longer the same kind of dynamic presence, but he can still turn up the heat from time to time. He had a hat trick last Saturday against Edmonton and has 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 13 games this season, even though his 14:06 average time on ice is the lowest of his career.

#7 New Jersey Devils winger Miles Wood missed nearly all of last season, limited to just three games due to hip surgery. He has returned to action in fine form this season. Although he is skating on the Devils’ fourth line, Wood has been productive, with eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 25 shots on goal in the past six games. Wood has never scored more than 32 points in a season, so keep expectations in check, but his increasing offensive contributions could make him useful in deeper leagues.

#8 Seattle Kraken center Yanni Gourde did not record a point in the first six games of the season, but he has pulled out of that slump to produce eight points (2 G, 6 A) in the past seven games. Gourde brings energy to an effective line with Jared McCann and Brandon Tanev.

#9 Gourde is not the only Seattle center offering good value. Fourth-line center Morgan Geekie is starting to contribute offensively in a way that he never has before in his NHL career. In his past eight games, Geekie has eight points (4 G, 4 A) despite averaging just 10:08 of ice time per game. That lack of playing time makes Geekie an unlikely add in most fantasy leagues, but in deep leagues, it is worth keeping an eye on anyone who puts up a point per game over an eight-game stretch. Maybe that prompts a bigger role for Geekie and if more ice time comes his way, that could change the calculation on his fantasy value.

#10 Although the goals have not come so easily this season, Los Angeles Kings right winger Trevor Moore continues to provide secondary offense. Moore broke through for a career high 17 goals and 48 points last season but has just two goals on 52 shots on goal through 16 games. Moore has added nine assists, but his shot rate is especially notable and suggests that he could be a good buy-low option because he is not likely to keep scoring on less than four percent of his shots on goal.

#11 Arizona Coyotes left winger Matias Maccelli is still considered a rookie after he played 23 games last season. He has continued to develop, even on a bad Coyotes squad, and while he does have eight points (1 G, 7 A) in his past nine games, Maccelli also has just six shots on goal in that time, so it is difficult to expect sustained production.

#12 With Philipp Grubauer out of the lineup, the Seattle Kraken have turned to Martin Jones in goal and the veteran netminder has responded to the challenge, posting a .940 save percentage in his past six starts. Jones has been a below-average goaltender for each of the past four seasons, so modest expectations are the way to go, but if he can provide league average goaltending for the Kraken, the wins will follow.

#13 Florida Panthers goaltender Spencer Knight was supposed to challenge Sergei Bobrovsky for the starting job last season, but it never materialized as Knight finished the season with a .908 save percentage. It was fine, but it’s fair to say the Panthers had higher hopes. After a 40-save shutout against Carolina this week, Knight has a .925 save percentage in six starts this season and that kind of performance is how the backup goaltender challenges for a No. 1 job, especially when Sergei Bobrovsky, the starter, has a .897 save percentage in eight starts.

#14 It is not easy to accrue goaltending value as the starting goaltender for the Arizona Coyotes, but Karel Vejmelka is giving it a shot. In his past six appearances, Vejmelka has four wins and a .944 save percentage, which will play just fine. Wins are going to be a challenge for the Coyotes all season, and Vejmelka is not going to keep stopping 94% of the shots that he faces, but if he is better than league average, he could have fantasy appeal.

#15 New Jersey Devils left winger Ondrej Palat is out 8-10 weeks with a groin injury and the long-term nature of that absence could give a winger like Tomas Tatar the opportunity he needs to maximize his production. Tatar has excellent underlying numbers, with the Devils controlling more than 63% of 5-on-5 score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts with Tatar on the ice. He has chipped in nine points (2 G, 7 A) in the past nine games and a consistent spot alongside Nico Hischier is a good place for Tatar to be.

#16 When Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov suffered a knee injury against Boston last Saturday, it left Toronto in a dire situation in goal. Since Matt Murray was already injured, Erik Kallgren moved into the starting role and the Maple Leafs signed Keith Petruzzelli to be his backup. Petruzzelli, 23, has played 23 games in the ECHL and 11 games in the American Hockey League since finishing four years at Quinnipiac University. While Murray has returned to practice and could be ready for game action again soon, Kallgren has a .890 save percentage in six appearances for the Maple Leafs this season, a .889 save percentage in 20 career NHL games. We knew goaltending would be a major question mark for the Maple Leafs this season, but that question is getting asked loudly very early in the season.

#17 Not only are the Colorado Avalanche dealing with injuries up front, but the defending Stanley Cup champs are also missing Sam Girard and Bowen Byram on the blueline. As a result, Jacob MacDonald and Kurtis MacDermid were in the lineup for Thursday’s win against Nashville. Although MacDonald tends not to play a lot of minutes in the NHL, he has been very productive in the AHL and if Girard and Byram miss significant time, MacDonald might have enough opportunity to be a meaningful contributor to the Avalanche.

#18 Florida Panthers defenseman Radko Gudas remains a rare fantasy hockey contributor. While he has a respectable four points (1 G, 3 A) in 14 games this season, any scoring he does is really a bonus. Gudas has 26 blocked shots and 46 hits, making him one of four defensemen to have at least 20 blocked shots and 40 hits. The others are Jacob Trouba, Connor Clifton, and Jeff Petry. Trouba and Gudas are the only ones in that quartet averaging more than 2.0 shots on goal per game. With the Panthers a little desperate on defense, especially while Aaron Ekblad has been out of the lineup, Gudas is playing a career high 20:52 per game this season.

#19 There is a race between two lines for the most productive during five-on-five play this season. Vegas’ trio of Chandler Stephenson, Jack Eichel, and Mark Stone has scored 6.42 goals per 60 minutes. That comes in just ahead of the Dallas Stars line of Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, and Jason Robertson, at 6.31 goals per 60 minutes. Among lines that have played at least 100 five-on-five minutes together, they are far ahead of No. 3 – the Islanders trio of Anders Lee, Brock Nelson and Anthony Beauvillier, which has scored 4.26 goals per 60 minutes. While some of these players are stars that are not going to be available, Stephenson, Lee, and Nelson are productive players that can be found on the waiver wire in about half of leagues.

#20 The Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers, and Dallas Stars have the top three power plays in terms of goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play. None of those are particularly surprising, but No. 4 is the Arizona Coyotes. That’s a stunner. Matias Maccelli leads the Coyotes with six power play points, one ahead of Clayton Keller, and Nick Ritchie, as well as defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and J.J. Moser.

The Avalanche are humming along at a clip of 15.74 goals per 60 minutes. By way of comparison, the top rate last season belonged to the Toronto Maple Leafs, at 10.23 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play, so the Avs are about 50% better than the top rate in the league last season.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – ARIZONA COYOTES – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen - Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 20:48:55 +0000

FORWARDS

SAN JOSE, CA - May 8: Arizona Coyotes right wing Clayton Keller (9) carries the puck during the San Jose Sharks game versus the Arizona Coyotes on May 8, 2021, at SAP Center at San Jose in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Matt Cohen/Icon Sportswire)

Clayton Keller

Although the 24-year-old winger suffered a broken leg that ended his season prematurely, Keller recorded 63 points, including a career high 28 goals, in 67 games. Keller is a slick and confident playmaker who operates with a lot of confidence when he has the puck. After scoring 65 points as a rookie in 2017-2018, Keller’s production was uneven for the next three seasons before rounding into form last season. From January 15 through March 19, Keller tallied 31 points in 22 games, remarkable production for a team that was consistently getting outshot and outscored last season. That situation figures to repeat itself, and maybe to an even greater degree, so Keller faces the challenge of trying to produce offensively even though it is unlikely to have a material effect on the team’s results. A lack of supporting cast talent could make for a challenging season, but Keller ought to find a way to generate 60 points to lead the Coyotes’ attack.

Nick Schmaltz

The 26-year-old playmaking forward has shown flashes of high-end setup skill and that includes a stretch from the beginning of March through nearly mid-April when he scored 27 points in 20 games, on his way to a career high 59 points in 63 games last season. The Coyotes have consistently had better results with Schmaltz on the ice in the past three seasons but that is as much a reflection of the team’s lack of quality depth as it is an accomplishment of Schmaltz’s. Even so, for a Coyotes team that sorely lacks dynamic offensive players, Schmaltz and Keller are a couple that offer some small reason for optimism. If Schmaltz could put up 55-60 points that would have to be considered a success under the circumstances.

Lawson Crouse

While he might not live up to some of the hype leading up to the 2015 Draft, Crouse has turned into a solid pro winger. He scored a career-high 20 goals and 34 points in 65 games last season, and he has recorded more than 2.5 hits per game in each of the past four seasons. A 6-foot-4 winger who has the size to play a physical game, Crouse moves well and plays a sound defensive game, which makes him a valuable contributor, though one that can get overlooked when he is on a team that is getting buried in the standings. If Crouse puts up 30 points and 200 hits, that will still offer deeper league value in leagues that reward physical play.

Travis Boyd

After bouncing around as an over-qualified fourth liner for several teams, the 28-year-old pivot secured a regular role for the Coyotes and produced a career-high 17 goals and 35 points. While Boyd was always more skilled than a typical fourth liner, he is also not necessarily equipped to play a prime scoring role in the NHL either. Given the Coyotes’ lack of established talent down the middle of the ice, though, Boyd is likely to play a significant role for the team in 2022-2023. If that means that he could duplicate last season’s production, 35 points, that’s a fair baseline for expectations. Boyd might be able to score more if he is a first-or-second line center but it’s hard to bank on that considering that last season was the first time he ever had that kind of role for a full season in the NHL. The path to more points for Boyd is on the power play. Of his 35 points last season, 31 came at even strength, the same number of even-strength points as Teuvo Teravainen, David Perron, and Tim Stutzle, believe it or not.

Nick Ritchie

After washing out with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Ritchie responded well to his move to the desert, scoring 10 goals in 24 games for the Coyotes. When he is on his game, Ritchie is a 6-foot-2, 230-pound winger who can have a physical impact, especially as a forechecker, but also as a complementary scorer. He does not create the chances on his own but is capable of finishing if linemates can transport the puck into the offensive zone. In the past two seasons, Ritchie has scored 27 goals in 113 games and last season was the third time in his career that Ritchie was credited with more than 150 hits. He might be looking at a bigger role with the Coyotes, mostly due to Arizona’s lack of legitimate NHL talent, but he has also had trouble playing a full schedule of games, missing at least 20 games in three of his past four seasons. That puts a limit on his upside, so Ritchie could contribute 25-30 points with big hit totals, which makes him not quite as valuable as Crouse.

Barrett Hayton

The fifth pick in the 2018 Draft, Hayton has struggled to get a foothold in the National Hockey League, but the 22-year-old did produce a career high 24 points in 60 games last season and, maybe more importantly, provided sound defensive play, which is not to be taken for granted from such a young player. The rebuilding Coyotes should have plans to play Hayton in a big role this season, in the hopes that his defensive play remains strong and, ideally, he could add more to his offensive repertoire. In addition to having difficulty producing in the NHL, Hayton has 16 points in 36 AHL games, so it’s fair to wonder if he is going to score like he did in his last season of junior, when he tallied 66 points in 39 games and looked like he would reward the Coyotes for taking a chance on him with such an early pick. On this team, opportunity should be screaming out for Hayton to step into a scoring role. Contributing 30 points for the first time would be a good starting point but there is more upside for Hayton depending on his role.

Nick Bjugstad

A towering 6-foot-6 forward who plays more on the wing at this stage of his career, Bjugstad contributed a modest 13 points in 57 games for the Minnesota Wild last season, but his overall contributions were solid enough in a fourth-line role. There was a time that it looked like Bjugstad could turn into something more – he scored 49 points in 2017-2018 – but it didn’t stick and was traded after a slow start the following season. He creates just enough offensively and is serviceable enough defensively to fill a role in the NHL but there is little upside to be found in a 30-year-old who has missed at least a dozen games in six of his past seven seasons. Taking his health into consideration, it would be asking a lot for Bjugstad to produce more than 20 points.

Zack Kassian

A 31-year-old winger who was acquired in a salary dump from the Edmonton Oilers, Kassian does have a pair of 15-goal seasons to his credit and can be a useful depth forward who bangs bodies and causes havoc on the forecheck. Trouble is, Kassian’s performance tends to come and go and when he is not asserting himself physically, he does not bring enough to the table otherwise. He should get an opportunity to play a decent role for the Coyotes, but without the potential superstar boost that he would get at times in Edmonton when he would land on Connor McDavid’s wing. Kassian has missed more than 60 games over the past three seasons, so he is probably going to miss games this season, too. If he ends up with 20 points and 150 hits, that will meet expectations.

Christian Fischer

Since scoring 33 points as a rookie in 2017-2018, the 25-year-old winger has just seen his production fade away, and he managed just 10 points in 53 games for the Coyotes last season. He will play the body, especially when forechecking, but the lack of production really has him hanging on the edge of the NHL at this point in his career. This season could be a last gasp for him as he tries to hold onto his NHL career. As such, it is hard to project him into any kind of scoring role. He has 30 points in 161 games across the past three seasons so double-digit points is a modest, but deserved, expectation.

DEFENSE

Jakob Chychrun

A 24-year-old defenseman who has played more than 23 minutes per game for the past two seasons, Chychrun had a career season in 2020-2021, scoring 18 goals and 41 points in 56 games, on his way to finishing 10^th in Norris Trophy voting. The percentages flipped on him last season however, and instead of scoring on 10.2% of his shots, he scored on 5.0% of his shots, finishing with seven goals and 21 points in 47 games. Chychrun has generated more than three shots per game in the past two seasons, one of three defensemen to hit that threshold – Roman Josie and Dougie Hamilton are the others – and Chychrun is more active as a shooter rather than a playmaker, which might not be an ideal path to generating offense from the blueline. He has landed in trade rumors recently and would presumably bring a significant haul of assets as a top-pair defenseman in his prime on a team-friendly contract. Depending on his health, Chychrun could score 15 goals and 40 points. If he gets traded to a better team, which is virtually guaranteed, there would potentially be an opportunity for more assists and therefore a higher ceiling on his point totals.

Shayne Gostisbehere

After falling out of favor in Philadelphia, to the point that he was a healthy scratch, Gostisbehere showed that he is still a very capable NHL defenseman. The 29-year-old scored 14 goals and 51 points for the Coyotes last season, resurrecting his NHL career with the second highest goal and point totals of his career. While Gostisbehere is not the most rugged player and does come with some defensive deficiencies, his ability to skate, jump into the attack, and distribute the puck surely outweighs the negative impacts related to the things that he does not do well. Gostisbehere is likely to play a major role for the Coyotes this season, at least until he gets traded before the deadline. It would be impressive if he could match his production from last season, but even 40-45 points would still be a strong season for the veteran blueliner.

Troy Stecher

An undersized right-shot defenseman, Stecher brings tenacity to the game and has more puck skills than might be expected from a player who had just three points in 29 games for the Red Wings and Kings last season. Stecher has good mobility, battles hard for loose pucks, and should be an asset to the Coyotes defense corps, though an asset that is not likely to score a ton of points, something in the mid-teens is reasonable. From Stecher’s perspective, this should be an opportunity to re-establish his credentials as an NHL defenseman.

Dysin Mayo

A 25-year-old who was a rookie last season, Mayo burst onto the scene and played nearly 21 minutes per game for the Coyotes. However, his results were mostly miserable, with Arizona getting outshot and outscored by large margins with Mayo on the ice. There were 213 defensemen that played at least 500 5-on-5 minutes last season and Mayo ranked dead last from that group when it came to his on-ice expected goals percentage of 38.6% and his on-ice Corsi of 39.6%. Say this for him, Mayo is active as he was one of 20 defensemen to record at least 125 hits and 125 blocked shots last season. If he scores 15-20 points but provides value in those peripheral categories, he might have some appeal in the deepest of fantasy leagues. Whether that translates to value for the Coyotes is still to be determined.

GOALTENDING

Karel Vejmelka

Few goaltenders surprised viewers more last season than Czech prospect Karel Vejmelka, who arrived with the Arizona Coyotes as a first year North American goaltender and took on a surprise role as the team’s starter with zero complaint. He struggled to perform up to league-average standards, but he did better than most goaltenders likely would have behind a stripped-down rebuilding club in a year where they likely would have been better suited to a season of adjustment in the AHL; he picked up on shot timing and communication with his teammates well enough to hold his own in a surprising number of games, and strung together some truly surprising stretches by failing to fall into slumps when the team deployed him in clear no-win situations.

The biggest learning curve that Vejmelka seemed to face came down to his depth management and decision-making on when to challenge shots outside the blue paint and when to remain more patient and wait out his opponents; he went through a fairly extensive amount of trial and error trying to suss out the best balance of his natural high-speed game based on rhythms and reactions and a more controlled game based on positioning and tracking. His performance for the Czech Republic at the World Championships in May, though, offered Coyotes fans some promising data to parse through; while he then struggled with opening his game play back up and utilizing the more open-ice format the the World Championships offered, he showcased some real improvements behind the higher-end defensive structure of his country’s best players. And to Arizona’s credit, they seemed willing to let Vejmelka make his mistakes and learn as he went along; if they’re able to keep that mentality into the new season, he should remain a reliable and fun option, if not one that fans can bank on statistically outclassing his opponents every night.

Projected starts: 40-45

Jon Gillies

It’s honestly a little hard to figure out just what Arizona is trying to do here by adding Jon Gillies as their number two; while they’re far from the only team that made a seemingly inexplicable choice with the tandem they’re heading into the season boasting (looking directly at Chicago as their direct competitor in the Disastrous Goaltending Tandem Sweepstakes), they seem to be the team that can least afford to lose fan interest in the process.

Gillies comes to Arizona as a goaltender who seems unlikely to offer services as anything more than a stopgap to someone else; he has just 32 career NHL games to his name, and he has a whopping three-year gap between appearances in the league. At nearly 29-years old, he’s no longer considered a prospect that may just have bloomed late; at this point, he’s an AHL tweener who likely serves less to give Arizona a goaltender for their future and more to help them keep their rebuild on track. What he has going for him, though – and what should help Arizona regardless of the performance he puts up – is that he’s more likely to stay healthy through the year than a number of the other journeymen that were available on the market this summer. The team was burned last year by the long-term injury sustained by free agent signee Carter Hutton early on in the season, which left them forced to rush some of their younger goaltenders to the NHL during a year that was designed to help them draft well and rebuild their core. The addition of a younger stopgap who hasn’t started to show the signs of wear and tear that could leave them forced to throw their prospects to the wolves means that they’ll be better equipped to truly allow their young players to grow and develop at the minor league level, which gives them a better chance of success a few years down the line.

Projected starts: 30-35

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Injuries and player movement present late season opportunities for Nick Ritchie, Sean Durzi, Evgenii Dadonov, Frank Vatrano, Joel Farabee, Erik Kallgren, Logan Thompson and many more.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 01 Apr 2022 17:59:32 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, injuries and player movement present late season opportunities for Nick Ritchie, Sean Durzi, Evgenii Dadonov, Frank Vatrano, Joel Farabee, Erik Kallgren, Logan Thompson and many more.

#1 Arizona Coyotes left winger Clayton Keller suffered a broken leg Wednesday that will require 4-6 months for recovery and rehabilitation, so he is aiming to be ready for the start of next season. Keller was having the best season of his career, already hitting a career high with 28 goals and 63 points in 67 games was his best per-game scoring rate (0.94 ppg). The question for the Coyotes is who will fill the void down the stretch? This is a team missing a bunch of players with injuries already and they were hardly starting from a position of great strength in the first place.

#2 Lawson Crouse might have been a candidate to play a bigger role for the Coyotes, but his season is over, too, after he broke a bone in his hand while blocking a shot. The Coyotes had four players with 10 or more points in 14 games during the month of March and Keller and Crouse were two of them. Nick Ritchie has eight goals and 48 hits in 16 games since joining the Coyotes, so he is a prime candidate to handle a bigger role late in the season. Rookie Matias Maccelli has five points and just six shots on goal in his first 14 NHL games and while that is not very inspiring, he would seem like a good bet to play more for the remainder of this season.

#3 Opportunity is a big factor when it comes to a player making their mark in the National Hockey League. The Los Angeles Kings blueline has been decimated by injuries and that has allowed Sean Durzi to not only play in the league but also to handle a top pair role out of necessity. Since March 7, Durzi has produced eight points (1 G, 7 A) in 13 games while playing more than 23 minutes per game.

#4 The Vegas Golden Knights might have thought they were getting rid of right winger Evgenii Dadonov in a deadline deal with the Anaheim Ducks, but the trade was voided by the National Hockey League because the Ducks were on Dadonov’s no-trade list. No matter, Dadonov has contributed eight points (5 G, 3 A) in the past five games, keeping the Golden Knights in the playoff hunt.

#5 When the Florida Panthers were clearing cap space to bring in Claude Giroux from Philadelphia, they unloaded winger Frank Vatrano to the New York Rangers. Vatrano has responded to his increased role on Broadway with six points (5 G, 1 A) and 18 shots on goal in eight games with the Rangers while getting a shot to play alongside Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad.

#6 Even as the Philadelphia Flyers stagger towards the finish of this season, winger Joel Farabee is surging offensively, putting up 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 18 shots on goal in the past nine games. He has moved to centre, between veteran wingers James van Riemsdyk and Cam Atkinson and, for all of the Flyers’ problems, that trio is working.

#7 While Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog recovers from knee surgery, Valeri Nichushkin has busted through as a premier performer. Nichushkin has already established his credentials as an elite two-way player, but he is getting the chance to play a more offensive role and has produced nine points (5 G, 4 A) along with 26 shots on goal in the past eight games.

VANCOUVER, BC - MARCH 17: Detroit Red Wings left wing Jakub Vrana (15) skates up ice during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on March 17, 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#8 The Detroit Red Wings have been fading, going 11-19-6 since returning from the December schedule pause, but the return of Jakub Vrana is at least offering some hope. Vrana has scored seven goals in 11 games for the Wings this season and, going back to when he was acquired last season, Vrana has scored 20 points (15 G, 5 A) in 22 games for Detroit.

#9 One of the most valuable free agent additions from last summer was that of the Los Angeles Kings signing center Phillip Danault. The 29-year-old has proven his value as a defensive presence, but he scored just five goals in 53 games for Montreal last season. This season, Danault has combined with wingers Viktor Arvidsson and Trevor Moore to form a dangerous trio that controls play and drives offense, too. Since the beginning of February, Danault has picked up his scoring pace, with 18 points (11 G, 7 A) in 24 games and his 21 goals this season is easily a career high.

#10 Since the All-Star break, the leaders in individual expected goals per 60 minutes of 5v5 play (minimum 200 minutes): Mason Marchment, Brad Marchand, Auston Matthews, Jeff Skinner, Viktor Arvidsson, Gabriel Landeskog, William Carrier, Nathan MacKinnon, Phillip Danault, and Connor McDavid. Danault is in pretty good company there.

#11 While the Boston Bruins have spent much of this season wondering who will fill the hole that was created at second line center when David Krejci left, it sure looks like Erik Haula has settled into the role. He has 15 points (4 G, 11 A) in his past 16 games, and Haula does not need to be a difference maker, he just needs to be a suitable complement to wingers Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak.

#12 While he has had some ups and downs during his rookie season, Carolina Hurricanes right winger Seth Jarvis has tallied six points (3 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in the past seven games and, more importantly, has been skating on Carolina’s top line alongside Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. That’s a great opportunity if Jarvis can remain in that spot.

#13 As Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner deals with a back injury, opportunity knocks for Jack Roslovic, who was playing a whole lot less this season. In his first 49 games this season, Roslovic was averaging less than 12 minutes of ice time per game and had 20 points (8 G, 12 A). Since then, his ice time has jumped to more than 16 minutes per game and Roslovic has 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in 18 games as he centers the top line with Jakub Voracek and Patrik Laine.

#14 When the season started for the expansion Seattle Kraken, Stanley Cup champ Yanni Gourde was expected to be one of the top offensive threats on the team. He also had offseason shoulder surgery, so it took some time for him to get going, but Gourde is finishing strong even in what is a lost season for the Kraken. In his past 21 games, Gourde has 16 points (6 G, 10 A), including three on the power play and three while shorthanded.

#15 When the Montreal Canadiens chose not to match the Carolina Hurricanes’ offer sheet to restricted free agent center Jesperi Kotkaniemi, they quickly reacted by trading to get Christian Dvorak from the Arizona Coyotes. Dvorak struggled and has missed time with injuries, but he does have eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his past dozen games.

#16 Minnesota Wild center Frederick Gaudreau flies under the radar but he has been a productive pivot on the second line between rookie Matthew Boldy and Kevin Fiala. Gaudreau has 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in his past 25 games. Since the All-Star break, Gaudreau is putting up 3.03 points per 60 minutes during 5v5 play, one of just 19 players in the league averaging better than three points per 60 in that time.

#16 There are lots of expected names among those per 60 5v5 scoring leaders, but that list also includes Joel Farabee, Derek Ryan, Jesper Bratt, Travis Konecny, Craig Smith, Michael Bunting, Nick Schmaltz, and New Jersey’s center duo of Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier.

#17 That line of Gaudreau, Boldy, and Fiala ranks ninth (among lines to have played at least 200 minutes together) with 4.08 goals per 60 minutes of 5v5 play. Calgary’s top line of Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk ranks second, with 4.57 goals per 60 minutes. The top scoring line during 5v5 play this season? Toronto’s trio of Michael Bunting, Auston Matthews, and Mitch Marner has scored 6.30 goals per 60 minutes, a massive gap over even Calgary’s dominant number one line.

#18 While Jack Campbell is still out of the lineup, recovering from a rib injury, and Petr Mrazek is done for the rest of the regular season with a groin injury, the Toronto Maple Leafs are pinning their goaltending hopes on 25-year-old rookie Erik Kallgren, who has a .906 save percentage in his first seven NHL games, allowing 17 goals on 15.01 expected goals. The Maple Leafs do not need their goaltender to be a star, but something around league average would go a long way towards the Leafs having some success.

#19 In Vegas, goaltender Robin Lehner is injured again, and Laurent Brossoit has not stepped up in his absence, creating a chance for Logan Thompson, who has a .920 save percentage in 11 games, allowing 27 goals compared to 28 expected goals. Both Kallgren and Thompson have a chance to be fantasy difference makers down the stretch by virtue of playing significant roles on winning teams.

#20 Since the All-Star break, the top scoring defensemen during 5v5 play: Roman Josi, Cale Makar, Adam Pelech, Devon Toews, Brady Skjei, Seth Jones, Travis Sanheim, and Timothy Liljegren. Josi and Makar are to be expected as the top two scorers among defensemen this season, but Pelech, Skjei, Sanheim and Liljegren do not have huge offensive reputations.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Jake DeBrusk’s surprising emergence, Andrew Copp, Josh Anderson, Nico Hischier, and more.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 04 Mar 2022 15:40:49 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Jake DeBrusk’s surprising emergence, Andrew Copp, Josh Anderson, Nico Hischier, and more.

OTTAWA, ON - FEBRUARY 19: Boston Bruins Left Wing Jake DeBrusk (74) skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Boston Bruins on February 19, 2022 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Early in the season, Boston Bruins winger Jake DeBrusk seemed lost and, seeking a fresh start, requested a trade. He did not get the trade and now has landed a plum role playing on the right wing of the top line alongside Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. DeBrusk is delivering results, too, putting up nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 22 shots on goal in the past seven games.

#2 One of the players getting a lot of buzz as the NHL Trade Deadline approaches, Winnipeg Jets forward Andrew Copp recently returned from injury and has produced 30 points (13 G, 17 A) in 48 games. He has also generated a career high 2.75 shots on goal per game and that offensive activity, paired with Copp’s ability to play just about anywhere in the lineup – center, wing, scoring line, checking role – explains why the pending unrestricted free agent is drawing a lot of trade interest. For fantasy managers, it might be worth a speculative add of Copp now, before he lands in a new home where his offensive upside could get a boost.

#3 Sticking with Winnipeg, Jets center Adam Lowry is offering enough offense recently to have some fantasy appeal. In the past seven games, Lowry has six points (4 G, 2 A) and he has put up 157 hits in 54 games so if there is any kind of adequate scoring contributions, Lowry’s hit totals could make him appealing in deep leagues.

#4 Montreal Canadiens right winger Josh Anderson recorded a hat trick in Winnipeg Monday, giving the power horse seven points (6 G, 1 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past seven games. There has been some discussion about whether the soon-to-be-rebuilding Canadiens would move Anderson but if he is scoring, there is likely a spot for him in the Montreal lineup because his physical play serves as a strong complement to linemates Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.

#5 Columbus Blue Jackets right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand quietly goes about his business and, with nine points (6 G, 3 A) and 27 shots on goal in the past 11 games, Bjorkstrand is up to 18 goals in 52 games. For fantasy managers, Bjorkstrand adds value with his physical play, delivering 59 hits in 52 games. His career high is 64 hits in 82 games during the 2017-2018 season, so it seems very likely that Bjorkstrand will surpass that number while scoring 25+ goals by season’s end.

#6 While Jack Hughes gets more of the spotlight in New Jersey, Nico Hischier is giving the Devils another scoring option in the middle of the ice. In his past nine games, the Devils captain has produced 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 23 shots on goal, thriving on a line with Pavel Zacha and Jesper Bratt.

#7 Devils rookie Dawson Mercer has recently been moved to right wing on the top line, skating with Jack Hughes and Yegor Sharangovich. Mercer has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past eight games. That shot total is rather low, but Mercer is now tied with Nashville Predators winger Tanner Jeannot for sixth in rookie scoring with 32 points.

#8 A player for deep league managers to keep an eye on down the stretch could be Ottawa Senators center Colin White, who had missed most of this season after suffering a shoulder injury in the preseason. In his first three games after recovering from surgery, White has a couple of points but also has 12 shots on goal and has a role on Ottawa’s second power play unit.

#9 Anaheim Ducks veteran Adam Henrique is heating up, scoring six points (4 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal in the past five games. Skating on a line with Ryan Getzlaf and Troy Terry, the five-time 20-goal scorer is in a decent spot to provide offense for Anaheim.

#10 A four-point night against Toronto last Saturday lifted Detroit Red Wings defenseman Filip Hronek to 12 points (2 G, 10 A) in his past 17 games. With 28 points in 50 games, Hronek is now scoring at a career-best per-game rate (0.56 points per game).

#11 It is easy for rookie defensemen to get overlooked, especially if they are not Moritz Seider of the Detroit Red Wings, because Seider is a leading contender for the Calder Trophy. However, there are other freshman defensemen that are contributing offensively, too. Anaheim’s Jamie Drysdale (3 G, 20 A in 56 GP), Nashville’s Alexandre Carrier (2 G, 18 A in 49 GP), Los Angeles’ Sean Durzi (2 G, 13 A in 37 GP), and Toronto’s Timothy Liljegren (1 G, 10 A in 37 GP) are chipping in. Colorado’s Bowen Byram (5 G, 6 A in 18 GP) was impressive before his season was derailed by concussions. Arizona’s J.J. Moser (3 G, 7 A in 27 GP) has had positive early results, too.

#12 Although he does not score nearly as much as he did during the seasons when he quarterbacked the Buffalo Sabres power play, Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is a category monster. Since returning from the December schedule pause, Ristolainen has 81 hits in 20 games. The only defensemen with a higher hits-per-game average since the pause are Radko Gudas and Luke Schenn.

#13 Looking for a fresh start in Arizona, after a terrible start to the season in Toronto, Coyotes left winger Nick Ritchie has two points (1 G, 1 A), seven shots on goal and 12 hits in his first three games for the Coyotes. No need to race to the fantasy waiver wire for him just yet but Arizona should be invested in Ritchie having a role on their team next season so they might give him a good opportunity to play an important role down the stretch.

#14 With 14 goals in 53 games, Arizona Coyotes left winger Lawson Crouse is one away from matching his career high. He is also one of seven forwards to have more than 10 goals and more than 150 hits. The others are Nashville’s Tanner Jeannot, Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk, Washington’s Garnet Hathaway, Nashville’s Luke Kunin, Washington’s Tom Wilson, and Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno.

#15 In the history of the National Hockey League, there have been five seasons in which a forward has had less than five goals and more than 30 assists. One of those seasons is happening right now, as Blue Jackets winger Jakub Voracek has just two goals to go with 38 assists. That ratio is the highest of assists-to-goals for a forward ever (minimum 20 assists), surpassing Henrik Sedin’s 2017-2018 season when he had three goals and 47 assists.

#16 While the Boston Bruins have spent much of this season seeking a second line center to replace the departed David Krejci, they might have stumbled onto something recently with Erik Haula. The veteran forward has been skating between Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak and is on a five-game point streak, during which he has contributed seven points (2 G, 5 A).

#17 In his sixth NHL season, St. Louis Blues forward Ivan Barbashev has erupted, setting career highs in goals (17) and points (41). He has been a useful depth player for the Blues prior to this season but Barbashev’s ice time is up more than three-and-a-half minutes per game from last season and he has responded to the bigger role by producing. While Barbashev is not likely to keep scoring on 20.5% of his shots over the long haul, he also offers added fantasy value with 89 hits in 52 games.

#18 When looking at Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals for individual skaters, there are a dozen players that have exceeded their expected goals by more than six. That list includes Boston’s David Pastrnak, Columbus’ Patrik Laine, Nashville’s Filip Forsberg, Colorado’s Gabriel Landeskog, St. Louis’ Brayden Schenn, Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Buffalo’s Tage Thompson, Toronto’s Auston Matthews, New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt, St. Louis’ Jordan Kyrou, Detroit’s Dylan Larkin, and the Rangers’ Mika Zibanejad. Some of these players are elite finishers, so they should be expected to outscore the expected goals model, but they also might be due for some statistical regression, too.

#19 On the other hand, there are some notable forwards that are well below their individual expected goals. That group includes Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk, Toronto’s John Tavares, Boston’s Patrice Bergeron, Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher, Arizona’s Phil Kessel, Los Angeles’ Trevor Moore, Seattle’s Jordan Eberle, Vancouver’s Nils Hoglander, Calgary’s Mikael Backlund, as well as Edmonton’s Jesse Puljujarvi and Warren Foegele.

#20 At this stage of the season it can be difficult to find goaltending value on the fantasy waiver wire, but there are some backups worth keeping on your radar. Since the December schedule pause, Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (.947 SV%), Washington’s Vitek Vanecek (.937 SV%), St. Louis’ Ville Husso (.934 SV%), Ottawa’s Anton Forsberg (.930 SV%), Colorado’s Pavel Francouz (.926 SV%), the Islanders’ Semyon Varlamov (.923 SV%), and Minnesota’s Kaapo Kahkonen (.923 SV%) have all had positive results. Some, like Swayman, might be taking the starting role but most are still trying to carve out any kind of bigger role with their respective teams.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY HOCKEY POINTS- 2021-22 – NEW SEASON!

Scott Cullen — Wed, 22 Sep 2021 20:47:12 +0000

Welcome to a new season of 20 Fantasy Points on McKeen’s Hockey. Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

One thing to remember when looking at trends is that they are not intended to be guarantees of future performance. They might provide indicators or probabilities but, sometimes, in a league with more than 700 players, there are exceptions, players that can ride a wave of high percentages.

So here are some stats to consider as we approach the 2021-2022 season, with much more to come leading up to the drop of the puck and throughout the NHL season.

#1 Goal scoring has increased in recent years but was down a little bit last season. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, goals per team per game hovered around 2.98 goals per game. Last season, it was down to just under 2.90 goals per game. That’s not a dramatic decline and the consistency of the range should make it a little more manageable for forecasting purposes. As recently as 2017-2018, the goals per team per game average was 2.72, so we are operating in a world with a little more offense.

#2 One of the paths to finding fantasy hockey value is to go against public perception and one of the factors in public perception, both good and bad, is playoff performance. For that reason, there is probably value to be found in the likes of Pittsburgh goaltender Tristan Jarry after he posted a .888 save percentage in a six-game first-round loss to the Islanders. Similarly, New Jersey winger Tomas Tatar was a healthy scratch for the Montreal Canadiens for most of their run to the Stanley Cup Final, which overshadows that Tatar was comfortably the Habs’ top scorer over the past three seasons. Even Toronto’s Mitch Marner, to some degree, could provide some value here. His past two playoff performances have been entirely forgettable and yet his 228 points in the past three seasons ranks eighth and his 1.16 points per game in that time ranks 10^th.

#3 A common, and more recent way to find value is seeking out players due for regression when it comes to on-ice shooting percentage. This works in both directions but players that have really high on-ice shooting percentages are likely to decline and those that are really low tend to get a bit of a boost. It is not a universal truth but a tendency. Some players who benefited from a high on-ice shooting percentage last season include Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno (15.1 OisH%), Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson (13.8 OiSH%), Seattle’s Jared McCann (13.6 OiSH% with PIttsburgh), Detroit’s Jakub Vrana (13.5 OiSH%), Vegas’ Chandler Stephenson (13.0 OiSH%), and Washington’s Evgeny Kuznetsov (12.9 OiSH%). This does not mean that those players can’t be productive this season, but they are not likely to duplicate those high percentages.

#4 A sustainable on-ice shooting percentage, over a three-year span, ranges between 11 and 12 percent, which is still higher than the vast majority of players can expect. From that group above, Kuznetsov (11.9%), Vrana (11.5%), and Pettersson (11.4%) have had high on-ice shooting percentages more consistently in the past three seasons.

DALLAS, TX - FEBRUARY 23: Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen (4) handles the puck at the blue line during the game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Dallas Stars on February 23, 2019 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX. (Photo by Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire)

#5 On the low end of the on-ice shooting percentage spectrum, there are always going to be grinders who don’t necessarily fall into the fantasy discussion that have very low on-ice shooting percentages. Some players that had low on-ice shooting percentages last season that could reasonably expect better in 2021-2022 include: Detroit’s Dylan Larkin (4.9%), the Islanders’ Kyle Palmieri (5.3%), Nashville’s Filip Forsberg (5.5%), and Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen (5.6%).

#6 Similarly, individual players tend to fall within a reasonable range when it comes to their own shooting percentage. Those that are inflated are likely to come down and the player who is generating shots but not getting goals is likely to have their shooting percentage improve. Again, this is not a hard and fast rule – because Rickard Rakell exists – but a tendency. Some players that had unusually lofty shooting percentages last season include:

Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno (27.5%), whose previous high in a season of at least 20 games, was 13.4%.

St. Louis’ Brandon Saad (22.1% with Colorado), whose career shooting percentage going into last season was 11.4%.

Vegas’ Mark Stone (21.4%) and Stone has been a high-percentage finisher for his career (15.8%) but that’s not 21.4% either.

Washington’s T.J. Oshie (20.8%) which is unsustainably high, but Oshie has been scoring on 17.9% of his shots in six seasons with the Capitals, making hay on that power play, so while he may not score on such a high percentage again, the drop off may not be so dramatic in Oshie’s case.

Seattle’s Alex Wennberg (20.7%) was a notorious pass-first playmaker for his entire career, scoring on 8.0% of his shots prior to last season before he turned sniper with the Florida Panthers. It would be surprising if his shooting percentage did not fall by a significant amount this season.

Chicago’s Alex DeBrincat (20.6%) had a career-low shooting percentage of 8.7% in 2019-2020, so he seemed like a good bet for a bounce-back season in 2021, but that was a dramatic swing.

#7 Whose high shooting percentages can be trusted? In the past three seasons, the shooting percentage leaders (all situations, min. 1000 minutes) are:

Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (20.1%)

Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point (19.2%)

Washington’s T.J. Oshie (19.0%)

Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos (18.2%)

Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele (17.8%)

Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson (17.6%)

#8 On the other hand, some players that uncharacteristically low shooting percentages during the 2021 season:

Montreal’s Jonathan Drouin (2.6%) had a career shooting percentage of 9.7% going into last season.

Buffalo’s Jack Eichel (3.3%) scored on a career-high 15.9% of his shots in 2019-2020 but regression came for him in a big way last season and now he remains in a holding pattern, unsure for which team he will play his next game.

Boston’s Jake DeBrusk (5.4%) had scored on 13.5% of his shots in his first three NHL seasons before his shooting percentage crashed last season.

St. Louis’ Vladimir Tarasenko (6.2%) had never finished an NHL season with a shooting percentage lower than 10.7% prior to last season. Maybe his ongoing shoulder issues played into it, or maybe he was just snakebit, but he finished with just four goals in 24 games.

Buffalo’s Jeff Skinner (6.3%) has had fluctuating shooting percentages throughout his career but after scoring 40 goals on a career-high 14.9% shooting percentage in 2018-2019, he has dropped off dramatically. Can he get it back?

#9 Opportunity is always a driver of fantasy hockey value. Some forwards looking at significant new roles with new teams include Conor Garland, Vancouver; Blake Coleman, Calgary; Zach Hyman, Edmonton; Viktor Arvidsson, Los Angeles; Brandon Saad, St. Louis; Nick Ritchie, Toronto.

#10 On defense, the move to a new team might result in more power play time but the opportunity to play with a different supporting cast can make a difference, too. Here are some defenders that could be looking at beneficial new situations: Ryan Ellis, Philadelphia; Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Vancouer; Vince Dunn, Seattle; Alex Goligoski, Minnesota; Adam Boqvist, Columbus; Shayne Gostisbehere, Arizona. Probably Tony DeAngelo in Carolina, too.

#11 Considering how team-dependent goaltending production tends to be, goaltenders that switch teams might have the greatest change in their fantasy value. Think of how much more appealing Darcy Kuemper is in Colorado than if he had stayed in Arizona. Same for Linus Ullmark in Boston. At the lower end of the goaltender spectrum, Adin Hill could benefit from the move from Arizona to San Jose, at least in terms of having an opportunity to play more.

#12 The opposite side of that coin is the goaltenders that moved to teams that are not likely to be as strong as the team they left and that will put a dent into their fantasy value. Philipp Grubauer moving from Colorado to Seattle and Marc-Andre Fleury going from Vegas to Chicago are a couple of notable examples. Alex Nedeljkovic likely faces a worse team in front of him in Detroit, after playing in Carolina, but also has a likelihood of handling a starter’s role for a full season, so there are trade-offs to consider.

ANAHEIM, CA - MARCH 10: Anaheim Ducks Left Wing Trevor Zegras (46) in action during a game against the Los Angeles Kings played on March 10, 2021 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

#13 The NHL has rules governing rookie eligibility and one of the main facets is that players can not have played 26 or more games in a previous NHL season. Here are some players that are officially rookies that flashed some potential in 2021: Trevor Zegras, Anaheim; Jamie Drysdale, Anaheim; Tanner Jeannot, Nashville; Wade Allison, Philadephia; Shane Pinto, Ottawa; Cole Caufield, Montreal, and Evan Bouchard, Edmonton.

#14 Connor McDavid scored 105 points in 56 games to lead the league last season. Pro-rated over an 82-game season, Leon Draisaitl and Brad Marchand would have hit 100 points last season, too. How many players could score 100 points in an 82-game 2021-2022 season? Since 2015-2016, there have been 13 100-point seasons recorded in the NHL. McDavid has four, Nikita Kucherov, Patrick Kane and Draisaitl have two, while Marchand, Claude Giroux, and Sidney Crosby each have one.

#15 Can anyone catch McDavid for the scoring title this season? It won’t be easy, since a pro-rated total at last season’s scoring rate (1.88 points per game) would give McDavid 154 points. The closest contenders would seem to be Kucherov, who scored 128 points (1.56 points per game) in 2018-2019, Draisaitl, who tallied 110 points (1.55 points per game) in 2019-2020, and perhaps Artemi Panarin, who has back-to-back seasons with 1.38 points per game for the New York Rangers.

#16 One measure of interest when it comes to forecasting player point totals is individual point production (IPP) because it shows the percentage of points that a player is involved in relative to the number of goals for which they are on the ice. Some players have more of the offense run through them so, naturally, their percentages will be higher, but an IPP that is atypically high is not likely to be duplicated. Some players coming off a season with a high all-situations IPP include Toronto’s Jason Spezza (90.9%, Minnesota’s Mats Zuccarello (87.5%), N.Y. Rangers’ Artemi Panarin (84.1%), Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (84.0%), St. Louis’ David Perron (82.9%), and San Jose’s Tomas Hertl (82.7%).

#17 On the other hand, some players who might expect an IPP boost this season compared to last include: St. Louis’ Robert Thomas (46.2%), Nashville’s Matt Duchene (46.4%), N.Y. Rangers’ Chris Kreider (46.2%), Nashville’s Ryan Johansen (47.8%), and Colorado’s J.T. Compher (48.7%)

VANCOUVER, BC - MARCH 06: Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) waits for a face-off during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on March 6, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#18 While McDavid running away with the points race was amazing, Auston Matthews had a comfortable margin in the race for the Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s leading goal scorer, tucking in 41 goals, eight more than McDavid, who was in second place. Who are Matthews’ top challengers? Well, naturally McDavid should be considered and it would be insulting not to include Alex Ovechkin, who has led the league in goals nine times, but outside of that group, maybe Boston’s David Pastrnak, who scored 48 goals in 2019-2020 or, conceivably, Chicago’s Patrick Kane or Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov, who are two of six players to have multiple 40-goal seasons since 2015-2016 (the others being Matthews, McDavid, Draisaitl, and Ovechkin).

#19 The darkhorse candidate could be Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, who has never scored more than 41 goals in a season and is coming off a year in which he managed just 20 goals in 48 games but MacKinnon consistently generates more than four shots on goal per game season after season and if he puts up 350-plus shots in an 82-game season, it is possible that MacKinnon could score 50 goals and that would put him into the mix.

#20 Shot volume is an important indicator when it comes to goals. Since 2015-2016, there has been one season in which a player scored 30 goals and did not have more than two shots on goal per game – New Jersey’s Adam Henrique, in 2015-2016, scored 30 goals on just 1.86 shots per game. In that time, there is only one player to have multiple 30 goal seasons while generating fewer than 2.5 shots on goal per game and that is Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele.

MCKEEN’S 2019-20 YEARBOOK: Under the Radar Fantasy All-stars

Scott Cullen — Thu, 05 Sep 2019 22:35:11 +0000

Finding value in fantasy hockey can be the difference between winning and losing. While it’s always exciting to select the biggest stars in the early rounds finding value in middle to later rounds can make a real difference.

You could have a hunch about which players that you think will be better than expected, and that’s fine – fantasy hockey is for fun, after all – but there are some relatively established guidelines for finding players whose production may exceed their perceived value.

It’s useful to understand perception because that indicates how early a player may get drafted or how much it will cost to acquire them in an auction. Perception is a significant factor in whether a player’s production can provide relative value and perception is often driven by goal and assist totals from the previous season.

But by looking beyond raw goals and assists, it’s evident that player value can be predicated on fluctuating percentages. A player who sees his own shooting percentage, or even the shooting percentage of others when he’s on the ice, dry up for one season is a prime candidate for a bounce-back performance. That presents an opportunity to secure potential value.

Another avenue that can provide value is to find players who excel in the less glamorous categories: hits, blocked shots, even shots on goal. Obviously, getting goals and assists is important but, in roto leagues, all categories count the same, so there is some appeal – albeit maybe a little less obvious – when it comes to players contributing in the “peripheral” categories.

The objective, then, for fantasy owners is to find some players that will be more productive than they have been previously or those that are looking to recover from a down season. There are risks involved but that’s where the value lies. Hit on a couple of the right players and your fantasy squad will start moving in the right direction.

Here is an all-star team of potential value players, those that could surprise and possibly exceed their fantasy draft slot this season.

Anaheim Ducks Right Wing Ondrej Kase (25) (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Filip Forsberg, LW, Nashville – The 25-year-old winger has scored enough highlight-reel goals that he’s not flying under the radar but he’s coming off a season in which he finished with 50 points, his fewest in a full season, and he’s missed 33 games over the past two seasons. A healthy Forsberg is a difference maker. Over the past four seasons, he ranks 19^th in goals per game (0.40) and 29^th in shots on goal per game (2.97). If the Predators can improve what was the league’s worst power play last season, Forsberg’s numbers should rise.

William Nylander, RW, Toronto – Quite possibly the most obvious candidate for a bounce-back season. The 23-year-old managed just seven goals in 54 games after a protracted contract negotiation caused him to miss the first two months of the 2018-2019 season. However, Nylander generated a career-best 9.6 shots per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play and finished with a career-low 5.4% shooting percentage so his underlying numbers were strong and undermined by that terrible shooting percentage. Presuming that the Maple Leafs get Nylander back to his more customary spot on Auston Matthews’ wing, the scoring chances will be there and Nylander’s production will get back on track.

Mika Zibanejad, C, N.Y. Rangers – It’s hard to get a bargain on a player who scored a career-high 74 points last season, and this is usually the type of player for which I might warn against paying full retail prices but Zibanejad could get another boost from playing with prized free agent addition Artemi Panarin. Throughout his career, Panarin’s lines have typically generated a lot of shots and, usually, finish at an above-average rate, which keeps the door open for another productive scoring season for Zibanejad.

J.T. Miller, LW, Vancouver – Playing in Tampa Bay last season, Miller scored 13 goals and averaged fewer than 15 minutes of ice time per game, his lowest marks since 2014-2015. Joining Vancouver, where the Canucks have fewer quality options up front, Miller is much more likely to hold a prominent role in the Canucks’ offense all season and he is a three-time 20-goal scorer who had a career-high 58 points in 2017-2018.

Jordan Eberle, RW, N.Y. Islanders – After years of consistent production, Eberle had his worst season in 2018-2019, his 37 points tying his previous career low which was set during the 2012-2013 lockout season when he played just 48 games. That lack of production was backed up by a career-low 2.05 shots on goal per game but Eberle responded in the postseason, with nine points in eight games and, importantly, generating more than three shots on goal per game. If Eberle makes his home on Mathew Barzal’s wing, it is reasonable to believe that he can bounce back closer to his previously established level of scoring performance.

Jaden Schwartz, LW, St. Louis – Somehow Schwartz managed just 11 goals and 36 points during the 2018-2019 regular season despite averaging a career-high 2.65 shots on goal per game. He recovered in the playoffs, scoring 12 goals in 26 games on the way to the Blues’ first Stanley Cup. With strong underlying numbers, it will come as little surprise if Schwartz’s regular season production far exceeds what he provided last season.

Ondrej Kase, RW, Anaheim – A prime breakout candidate for the past couple of years, the 23-year-old winger looked to be on his way last season. After starting the season on the shelf with a concussion, Kase had scored 11 goals in 30 games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher was the only player in the league to generate shots and shot attempts at a higher rate per minute than Kase, so if the Ducks winger is healthy enough to handle a prominent role for a full season, he might finally get that breakthrough campaign.

Alex Galchenyuk, RW, Pittsburgh – Forever looking to fulfill his potential, the 25-year-old gets another chance with his third NHL franchise. Last season’s 41 points was Galchenyuk’s lowest point total since 2013-2014 but he moves to a Penguins lineup that could give him a chance to skate with either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin at evens and, potentially, with both on the power play. Galchenyuk has produced 45 points on the power play in the past two seasons with Arizona and Montreal, and neither of those teams has a power play that can compare with what the Penguins have been rolling out in recent seasons.

Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Carolina – While a rookie season of 20 goals and 37 points was a nice debut for the 19-year-old winger, he’s just getting started. Svechnikov can generate shots but notably created high-quality chances. Among forwards to play at least 100 5-on-5 minutes last season, none had a higher rate of expected goals for per 60 than Svechnikov’s 3.34. The Hurricanes are a solid team but could use more high-end scorers to lead the attack and Svechnikov will eventually be one of those players, but maybe he makes that leap as soon as this season.

Tyler Toffoli, RW, Los Angeles – A three-time 20-goal scorer who has played all 82 games in three of the past four seasons, Toffoli’s 34 points in 82 games last season was the worst per-game production of his career. He scored on just 5.8% of his shots, well below his mark of 11.1% in his previous 375 games, and his on-ice shooting percentage of 6.4% was also a career-low. If Toffoli continues to generate shots and his percentages recover to a more typical level, then his goal and point totals would get a boost.

Roope Hintz, LW, Dallas – Even though he finished with a modest 22 points in 58 games as a rookie, the 22-year-old Stars forward finished strong with 11 points in the last 14 regular-season games before adding eight points in 13 playoff contests. He has the combination of size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds), speed, and skill to generate chances and his late-season surge gives him a regular spot in the lineup to provide the Stars with much-needed secondary offense.

Kevin Fiala, RW, Minnesota – The 23-year-old winger struggled after he was acquired from Nashville, managing seven points in 19 games with the Wild, but his on-ice shooting percentage was an absurdly low 3.0%. Fiala will have an opportunity to play a significant role in Minnesota and has such strong underlying numbers in terms of creating chances that it’s not a stretch to expect him to be better this season and he should be priced at a discount.

Nick Ritchie, LW, Anaheim – A 23-year-old power forward who tallied a career-high 31 points in 60 games last season, Ritchie offers additional value because he’s a banger. Even with a dip in hits last season, Ritchie has still averaged at least two hits per game for three straight seasons so if he scores enough to warrant consideration, his hit totals will offer additional value.

Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin (26) (Photo by John Crouch/Icon Sportswire)

DEFENSE

Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo – The first pick in the 2018 Draft isn’t going to sneak by too many but his rookie season was phenomenal – his 44 points was the most by an 18-year-old rookie defenseman since Phil Housley in 1982-1983, and Dahlin’s 2.16 shots on goal per game was only surpassed by Housley and Bobby Orr. This is just the beginning for this puck-moving dynamo and Dahlin is one of the few defensemen with the potential to have an impact as a scorer.

Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg – With the turnover on the Jets’ blueline, opportunity knocks for Morrissey, their top-pair defender who scored a career-high 31 points last season despite playing in just 59 games. Morrissey will have a big role in Winnipeg, and he can fill the stat sheet in multiple categories including hits and blocked shots.

Kevin Shattenkirk, Tampa Bay – Few players are seeking redemption like Shattenkirk, who was bought out of his four-year contract with the New York Rangers after just two seasons. While he’s not the sturdiest defender, the 30-year-old blueliner is consistently productive on the power play and his ability to move the puck ought to play well with a skilled Lightning squad.

Devon Toews, N.Y. Islanders – A 25-year-old who produced 17 points in his first 48 NHL games last season, Toews had four points on the power play during the regular season then matched that total in eight playoff games. He’s a quality puck-mover who should be ready for a bigger role on the Islanders blueline because the Islanders were much better once Toews was inserted into the lineup.

Filip Hronek, Detroit – When veteran Red Wings defenseman Mike Green was injured last season, the door opened wider for Hronek, a 21-year-old right-shot defenseman who had 19 points while playing more than 20 minutes per game in his last 30 games. Green’s presence could pose an initial challenge for Hronek when it comes to power play time but, long-term, Hronek should be a fixture on the Detroit power play.

Jakob Chychrun, Arizona – The key for Chychrun is staying healthy. The 21-year-old has played three NHL seasons and has yet to record a 70-game season. But he produced 20 points in 53 games last season despite a career-low 5.3% on-ice shooting percentage. He could break out merely by having that on-ice shooting percentage come back to a more reasonable level while staying healthy enough to play 75 games.

Arizona Coyotes goalie Antti Raanta (32) (Photo by Adam Lacy/Icon Sportswire)

GOALTENDERS

Martin Jones, San Jose – After a miserable 2018-2019 regular season, during which he had a career-low .896 save percentage, Jones is likely to be a relative bargain to acquire for the 2019-2020 fantasy season, and it’s worthwhile to take that plunge. He had a .915 save percentage over his previous three seasons and is the undisputed starter on a team that should at least be a playoff team and possibly a contender. That role matters because as poorly as Jones performed last season, he still won 36 games, his fourth straight season with at least 30 wins.

Antti Raanta, Arizona – Limited to just a dozen games last season, Raanta had a .927 save percentage in 116 games over the previous four seasons and had established that he was a legit starter for the Coyotes in 2017-2018. If he’s healthy, Raanta should be the No. 1 option for an improved Coyotes team and, because of last season’s injury, could be a draft day bargain.

Pacific Coast – Anaheim Ducks 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:36:01 +0000

Review/State of Play - Finished with their fifth straight 100 point season getting swept in the first round by San Jose after making it to the conference finals two out of the three previous years. It was an impressive achievement given injuries would plague their veteran players with Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, Corey Perry and Cam Fowler all missing meaningful time. They represent $30.25 million in cap space and a significant factor in any further success this season. There have been some promising young pieces emerging, but the window is closing on this forward group.

GM Bob Murray largely stood pat over the summer except for minor depth additions, despite professing the need to become a faster team. Faithful to coach Randy Carlyle, often the target of criticism for a throw back style of coaching that doesn’t seem to fit the offseason narrative of Murray. In the bottom of the third of the league in CF% with 48.62, he may succeed in getting the club into the postseason, but are they built to succeed, particularly when other strong teams have added significant pieces to challenge?

Anaheim Ducks center Rickard Rakell (67)

Growing internally – There were some encouraging signs of internal growth of younger players. Rickard Rakell definitively established that last season’s breakout was real and hit new highs in goals (36) and points (69) to lead the team in scoring, after Getzlaf had the honor for the prior six seasons. He finished 10^th in the league in 5v5 goals with 22. He tied for third last season with 26 and is behind only Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews over the two seasons combined. He led the team in scoring with eight goals on an anemic Anaheim power play (tied for second last in power play goals scored).

The emergence of young defenders 26-year-old Josh Manson and 24-year old rookie Brandon Montaur as impactful regulars was key last season. Manson led the backend in scoring with 37 points, all but one of them coming at even strength. He also anchors the shutdown pairing alongside 24-year-old Hampus Lindholm and led the team in shorthanded time on ice. Montour produced 32 points and played over twenty minutes a game leading the team in power play time on ice and points (18). They form one of the strongest core of young defenders in the league when including 26-year-old Cam Fowler.

The biggest development last season came from 24-year old goaltender John Gibson. He turned in an outstanding season and was one of the best keepers in the league from January on posting the leagues second best save percentage (0.937) and third in GAA (1.95) for goalies who played 10 games or more – he was first among tenders who had played 20 games. He was instrumental in keeping the franchise playoff bound and among the top ten teams in the league.

The spectre of age and injury loom - Corey Perry is drawing a cap hit of $8.625 million and at 33 years of age his 30 goal seasons appear to be over after not achieving 20 in the past two seasons. A rebound may be a reach, and his contract remains an albatross with a no trade clause. Ryan Kesler, also 33 years old, had a tough season after hip surgery and a December debut. He did not seem to get back to form entirely by seasons end and there are reports he is in intensive rehab and talk of missing the season entirely. Patrick Eaves missed all but two games last season and whether he can contribute at his past level remains to be seen.

Adam Henrique at 28-years-old added some depth up the middle after being acquired for Sami Vatanen and scored 20 goals for the Ducks in the final 57 games. He brings speed, work ethic and good hockey sense entering his prime. He rounds out a solid experienced group up front. They signed 30-year-old Brian Gibbons on a one year contract in the offseason - having previously played and showed chemistry with Adam Henrique.

Outlook - They enter this season with a similar line up to last season but did add experience and depth on the back end in Andrej Sustr and Luke Schenn, both on low cost one-year contracts ($1.3 million and $800,000 respectively). They replace veteran Francois Beauchemin.

Third in the league in goals against with an improved defense and three solid lines up front when healthy the Ducks have some factors in their favour for another appearance in the playoffs. A sweep in the playoffs exposed their lack of speed and could not produce offense when called upon.

They have made no significant improvements to a weak offense that is reliant on an aging superstar. The power play in desperate need of help did not receive any. The are placing their hopes that a healthy Eakins and Kesler along with general good health amongst the veterans along with an emerging young group will carry them further. A strategy that should see a further, if slow, decline this season.

SITTING DUCKS – 2017-18 Yearbook

McKeen's Hockey — Wed, 13 Sep 2017 14:05:10 +0000

Anaheim Ducks center Rickard Rakell (67). (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Review/State of Play - The Anaheim Ducks made it to Western Conference final for the second time in three years. After five straight division titles it is an organization that feels it is close to the ultimate Stanley Cup goal and largely stood pat in the off-season. Randy Carlyle was rewarded for his success with a contract extension.

There were no major departures from the line-up that finished the season with 105 points (46-23-13) and won their division. Trade rumours and speculation swirled much of the season around their enviable group of young defensemen in Cam Fowler (25), Sami Vatanen (26), Hampus Lindholm (23), and Josh Manson (25) or who they would have to expose or in the expansion draft or trade. Instead GM Bob Murray made a deal with Vegas sending prospect Shea Theodore in exchange for them drafting Clayton Stoner and his $3.25 million dollar cap hit freeing up cap space. The rise of prospect Brandon Montour on the horizon helped facilitate the move.

Anaheim Ducks rightwing Patrick Eaves (18)(Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

Right up against the cap that relief was welcome and allowed them to sign Patrik Eaves for three years at 3.15 million. He was acquired prior to the trade deadline from Dallas, ostensibly as a rental but clicked effectively with Ryan Getzlaf and Rickard Rakell firing seven goals at even strength in 20 games (11 total) before being shut down with a high ankle sprain and only appearing in seven playoff games.

Standing pat behind vets Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler - Ryan Getzlaf was quite simply a beast this season and took it to another level in the playoffs. A continuing attempt to separate Perry and Getzlaf is ongoing to provide matchup headaches for other teams. It would give them three strong lines as they own one of the best two way lines in the league in Andrew Cogliano, Ryan Kesler and Jakob Silfverberg. Kesler is an elite face-off man and a defensive specialist. A competitor that will get up the nose of opponents.

Corey Perry had a down season offensively with a paltry 19 goals, but shot at 8.8% while averaging over 15% in shooting percentage the last three seasons and owning a career 13.2%. At his career rate he would have scored 28 and had a shot at a fourth season over 30 goals. There is talk he played through an injury but it has not been confirmed.

Kesler and Getzlaf are 33 and 32 years old, respectively, but showing no signs of slowing down and will be a threat next season. Perry, also 32, should rebound, but snipers tend to fade faster as they get older. In projecting the 2017-18 season you need to take in the urgency factor. This is a confident team that knows what it wants and age will not be a factor among the leadership group for the coming season, injury concerns aside.

The emergence of 24-year old Richard Rakell with a surprising 33 goals (albeit on a 18.6% shooting percentage), along with a second 20 goal season from 26-year old Jakob Silfverberg, were important stories in providing scoring balance. Silfverberg has distinguished himself as a playoff warrior contributing 37 points in 40 playoff games over the last three seasons.

If 21-year old power winger with a goal scoring touch Nick Ritchie can make a similar transformation in his third NHL season, he adds another weapon down the lineup. He contributed 14 in his sophomore campaign so another 20 goal scorer would give the Ducks more than adequate attack over three lines

Gibson’s time - They also added veteran goaltender Ryan Miller to provide some relief for John Gibson and as an insurance policy in case of injury. The 37-year old veteran appeared in 54 games last season and represents an upgrade from Jonathan Bernier. If the 24-year old falters in his fourth NHL season, 16 -17 being his first as the starter, the vet will ready to take a heavier load. Gibson has flashed signs of being a dominant goalie and emerging as the starter this season would go a long way to sealing the deal in Anaheim.

If goaltending is successful, and the forward group delivers, they also ice one of the best young defense groups in the league. They are all responsible defensively, and mobile with some offensive chops. Both Vatanen and Lindholm suffered off-season shoulder injuries so monitor their recovery through training camp.

Outlook: Injuries and the endurance of their veterans are the only questions that will stop them from contending for their division title again and reaching for the Stanley Cup.

NHL Prospect Watch: Anaheim Ducks

Ryan Wagman — Mon, 21 Mar 2016 16:35:30 +0000

Anaheim Ducks' fans are among the biggest beneficiaries of the AHL’s decision to open up a Pacific division to house the affiliates of the West Coast-based NHL teams. Perhaps not as fortunate as Sharks' fans, whose up-and-comers get to play in the same arena, nevertheless the Ducks’ affiliate, based in San Diego, is only 90 minutes away in ideal traffic conditions. Maybe three hours in regular Southern California traffic.

Beyond proximity, the new Gulls' franchise has also seen many of the most highly touted Ducks' prospects suit up for their fans this season, among them former first rounders' Nick Ritchie and Shea Theodore, as well as others of intrigue such as Nicolas Kerdiles, Stefan Noesen and Brandon Montour.

With help from Hockey Prospectus author Jason Lewis (@SirJDL on twitter), we will review here a few of the more impressive Gulls this season as well as a few more who might be Gulls in the year or two to come.

The highest profile prospect to suit up for the AHL affiliate was winger Nick Ritchie. A former 10^th overall choice in 2014, Ritchie sticks out for his size and stickhandling abilities. Listed at a burly 6-2”, 232, he utilizes every pound on his frame on the ice. He relishes playing in the difficult areas of the ice and knows how to use his strength to his advantage to win board battles for the puck. He fits the Western Conference profile of a forward who can play dirty, play down low and score. While his initial NHL experience has been trying, with only one goal and one assist in his first 26 games, he fared much better in the AHL, with 28 points in 33 games, excellent numbers for a first year pro who only turned 20 two months into the season. Ritchie is a mule on the puck, very hard to dispossess him when he has it along the boards or down low and has a quick shot release, which will help him score with regularity from scrums near the crease going forward. His skating is still a work in progress, as he is not slow, but lacks much wow factor in terms of acceleration.

Considering the limited minutes he has received in the AHL, averaging under 12 minutes TOI per game, his development would have been better served with more time away from the spotlight in San Diego. On the other hand, in spite of his lack of offensive production, his possession figures have been strong in protected shifts and he has been a willing crasher and banger. Further, with the Ducks strong second half play, Ritchie has gained valuable experience – and will gain even more in the postseason – that will come in handy as he works his way up the depth chart in the coming year or two. The premature NHL time may delay his ascent to a top six role, but that is still his expected destination in the near future.

Just as high end as Ritchie on the Gulls roster this year has been two way blueliner Shea Theodore, also a first year pro. Theodore spent more of his with San Diego, getting only 13 NHL games as of this writing. Ironically, he produced three times as many points as his aforementioned teammate in half the games. His possession numbers were also stellar, without the benefit of protection. Whereas Ritchie excels in the power game, Theodore’s skill set lends itself far more to finesse and smoothness. For a team that is already stacked at the NHL level with young and mobile defenders along the caliber of Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindhold and Sami Vatanen, having Theodore waiting in the wings is almost unfair. The former Seattle Thunderbird is a fantastic skater in either direction and is a veritable weapon from the point, equally comfortable winding up for the slap shot, releasing a quicker wrister or passing to a better positioned teammate.

He sees the ice well and does a good job carrying the mail up the ice, or distributing the puck when more appropriate. While not known for his defensive game, he does not lack in that area either. He will never be a pure shut down defender, but his positional sense, willingness to sell out to prevent an opposition play and general ability to clear the zone should be sufficient to see him as part of a second unit, if not paired up with a more traditional defensive-minded partner on the first pairing. The biggest hurdle left for Theodore to climb is the presence of his aforementioned teammates. There were rumors earlier this year that the Ducks may be shopping one or both of Vatanen and Fowler. Without trading at least one of those – most likely Vatanen, a pending RFA – there will be no role for Theodore to take. The British Columbia native will be ready for a full time position in the NHL to start next season. While a few more months in the AHL would not hurt him, he is not far from being in a position of extracting diminishing returns with additional seasoning.

Theodore’s equal as an offensive blueliner is his current Gulls teammate Brandon Montour. A former second round pick, Montour went from scoring a point per game in the USHL to nearly matching that feat in the AHL in the space of two years. Put simply, he is an offensive dynamo. He is a well above average skater with great hands. He will always support the rush and more often than not, will actively participate in it as well. He has an excellent point shot and uses it judiciously, as he knows how to get it through traffic without being blocked.

As good as Montour is when the Gulls have the puck, he is equally as dangerous without it. Very eager to get the puck back, he will make many, many poorly thought out risky decisions, leaving his team in an awkward situation as he recovers from losing position. As fast as he is, very few defenders can recover in time from the positions he finds himself in due to over exuberance. His physical game is also lacking, making him a net negative in his own end. Assuming the Gulls can recover the puck, he finds himself useful once more at orchestrating the outlet, but does not do enough to assist in the process of regaining possession. In spite of his awesome offensive production in the AHL in his first full season as a professional, there is a good reason for his not being given a call up this season. Even as the game evolves, and teams are more likely to choose skill over brawn, there is still little patience for risk, unless even when overwhelmed by reward. See the trials and tribulations faced by Norris winner PK Subban in Montreal for a prominent example. Not that Montour is another Subban, but rather he is much riskier from a defensive perspective, meaning he is less likely to earn the trust needed to get the ice time and prime power play opportunities that Subban does. Assuming he continues to work in his defensive play, Montour could emerge as a powerplay specialist type who is limited to a 4/5 role at even strength. If he doesn’t, T.J. Brennan is the template. Another year in the AHL is a near inevitability.

While not as exciting as the three previously featured prospects, San Diego had a trio of other forwards of note suit up there this year with decent likelihoods of NHL careers ahead of them. Former second rounder Nicolas Kerdiles. Now in his second pro season, Kerdiles does not stand out in any one facet of his game, but neither does he have any glaring weaknesses. An intelligent and versatile forward who can play center or on the wing, he has moderate offensive ability to go along with shutdown center qualities. Frequently used to kill penalties, he has increased his offensive production in his second year in the AHL. It is hard to see a future wherein he scores much more than 30 points per season in the NHL, but that is solid work for a bottom six forward who contributes in his own end. Kerdiles should be ready for an extended NHL trial next season.

Also worth mentioning is Michael Sgarbossa, who came over from Colorado in a minor trade last March. Originally signed as an undrafted free agent out of the OHL’s Saginaw program by San Jose, he has proven himself to be a strong AHL producer over four pro seasons. His puck skills are solid, but not good enough to be a carrying tool if that was all he could bring to the table. Thankfully, he also has a knack for finding seams in coverage, making strong passes and is responsible enough to be used to kill penalties as well. He may be a tweener, in the sense that his skill set is not clearly strong enough for a top nine NHL role, but can sometimes look like the best player on the ice in the AHL. Nevertheless, a pending RFA, he has earned a longer NHL look than the nine games across two seasons he has so far received.

The last player I was to discuss from the San Diego squad is Czech winger Ondrej Kase. The former seventh rounder is an exciting player with good wheels and solid puck skills, but this year is unfortunately a wash for him in his first season since coming over from Europe. Having returned in the past two weeks, he is already showing why he might soon be regarded as a draft steal. Nonetheless, the down time this season can only be seen as a major disappointment.

A talented player in a similar situation to Kase is NCAA forward Kevin Roy. Undersized at 5-9”, the former fourth rounder has scored at over one point per game throughout his four year stay in the collegiate ranks. In looks last season, Roy showed himself to be a skilled playmaker who plays with a very high panic threshold, allowing him to take positional risks offensively than less brave players would not. Injuries greatly hampered his play this year, but he is now healthy and will look to try to lift a decent Northeastern squad into the NCAA tournament before considering a likely contract offer from the Ducks.

Another collegian who should be on the receiving end of a contract offer shortly is Minnesota-Duluth captain Andy Welinski. Not a standout in any part of the game, he has been a solid NCAA blueliner, proficient in his own zone with strong gap control and a good enough shot from the point that will not look out of place in the AHL. His offensive production was decent for UMD, but never really improved after a solid freshman season. The lack of progress may limit the Ducks offer to an AHL contract only, but the floor of his ability is high enough to warrant at least that, if not more.

Looking to Europe, I received a strong report from Hockey Prospectus contributor Miika Arponen on Finnish winger Miro Aaltonen who compared him to Jere Lehtinen in style. A complete player with a strong own zone game, there have been unconfirmed rumors that the former seventh rounder could make his way to North America in the offseason after three and a half good season in Liiga.

Finally, a few words about the Ducks 2015 first rounder, Swedish defenseman Jacob Larsson. In the midst of a strong rookie season in the SHL, Larsson took some time out to represent his country at the WJC. Another highly mobile defenseman in the Anaheim pipeline, Larsson can absolutely fly when he sees a lane through the zone. He has a high panic threshold and will not rush a shot or pass due to pressure. I would like to see his awareness improve, but playing a full season in a men’s league at age 18 is impressive. His size is also a point in his favor and he has demonstrated that he can be tough to play against in the corners. There is still plenty of room for growth, but he is starting at a very good spot.

2015 Training Camp Round-up – Sept 29

Ryan Dadoun — Tue, 29 Sep 2015 19:08:02 +0000

Curtis Glencross has been an interesting story this summer and it entered its next chapter on Monday, when he accepted a professional tryout offer from Colorado after being released from a PTO by the Toronto Maple Leafs just a day earlier.

In a lot of ways he's had the unwanted role of being the example of how unkind this summer has been to veteran players that have tested the unrestricted free agent market. That's due in part to the fact that he expressed regret for taking a hometown discount with the Calgary Flames (four-years, $10.2 million) in 2011.

“I love my time in Calgary and the organization, but you learn that eventually it’s a business and you’re just a number,” said Glencross back in August, per the Calgary Sun

“If I could do it again … as much as I love (Calgary) and call it home and met great people, at the same time, when it’s time for you to cash in, you have to take advantage and cash in. You can’t take a pay-cut or hometown discount because things change.”

Of course, if Glencross had gone on to have a stronger and healthier stretch with the Flames, he likely would be in a better position now, but it is also the case that some older, mid-level players have been pushed out in favor of younger, cheaper options as teams prioritize locking up their stars sans the now disallowed frontloading, cap-saving tactics, while simultaneously adjusting to a fairly modest increase in the ceiling.

The other side of this story is that Glencross coming to the Avalanche's camp might prevent Jack Skille, who is also on a PTO, from being a part of Colorado team this season.

All-in-all though, Glencross can at least take comfort in the fact that he's gotten another crack at an NHL gig. There are plenty of other veterans looking for work with some of the latest being Tomas Kopecky, Lubomir Visnovsky, and Daniel Paille after the Chicago Blackhawks released them from their tryout contracts.

Visnovsky stands out on that list just because at the age of 39, you have to wonder if his NHL career is over. Then again, perhaps he'll end up following Glencross' path by accepting another PTO. Boston will be without Dennis Seidenberg until mid-November while Los Angeles' Matt Greene and Jake Muzzin both sustained upper-body injuries on Sunday. Either team might be interested in adding a veteran defenseman to their camp for insurance purposes.

Still, for as many stories as there are about players getting cut or struggling to find work at this time of year, there are also plenty of players that have reason to be upbeat. Take Anaheim's Nick Ritchie for example. The Ducks being a team in win-now mode didn't enter camp with an obvious roster spot for Ritchie and even now it's likely he will not be with them for their season opener. However, he's managed to stick with the squad longer than expected.

“The development from last year to this year so far has been pretty good, for want of a better word,” Ducks coach Bruce Boudreau told the Orange County Register. “I think he’s more involved. He feels more like a player where last year, I think he was a little bit in awe.

“He’s using his size and his speed and his strength to his advantage."

Ritchie is coming off of another strong season in the OHL and he's someone that will be worth keeping an eye on as he could play a big role with the Ducks down the road, even if that likely won't be the case this season.

Dylan Strome in Arizona is another player that has survived a big round of training camp cuts, but unlike Ritchie, Strome might actually make the Coyotes. There's no guarantee of course, but unlike Anaheim, Arizona is a team that has plenty of openings for young players, although there's also a lot of competition for those spots.

The Coyotes, for as much off-ice drama as they've endured in recent years, could have a fun on-ice product to watch in the near future. They had the second worst offense in the league last season, but when you consider that their crop of forward prospects includes Henrik Samuelsson, Max Domi, Brendan Perlini, Anthony Duclair, and Christian Dvorak in addition to Strome, there is certainly the potential there for the Coyotes to feature a dangerous offense at some point down the road.

Of course, prospects don't always develop as teams' would like. Pittsburgh's Beau Bennett has become an unfortunate example of that. He was once seen as a potential top-six forward, but a combination of injuries and on-ice struggles have caused his stock to drop. Penguins GM Jim Rutherford even expressed regret back in April for not sending Bennett down to the minors to further his development before he became waivers eligible, per the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Dave Molinari

That being said, it's not as if all hope is lost for Bennett at the age of 23. He's having a strong camp after apparently doing some good strength-training work this summer. Perhaps this is the season that he starts living up to his promise.