Ondrej Kase – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – CAROLINA HURRICANES – NHL Player Profiles

Corey Sznajder – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 22:10:01 +0000

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 28: Carolina Hurricanes center Seth Jarvis (24) against the New York Rangers during Game 6 of round 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs on May 28, 2022 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Sebastian Aho

The 24-year-old center has been Mr. Everything for the Hurricanes since joining the team back in 2016, leading the team in most statistical categories while producing at a point-per-game clip for the fourth year in a row. He has gone from the team’s best offensive player to their do-it-all player, frequently playing over 20 minutes a night and getting the matchups usually reserved for Jordan Staal. This includes heavy usage on the penalty kill, an area where he isn’t afraid to push for offense. He embodies Carolina’s tenacious playing style. Looking to pressure and forecheck first but will create if the opportunity presents itself. His explosive skating and great vision give him plenty chances to do this but his knack for goal-scoring is what sets him apart. Whether it’s from the bumper spot or in front of the net, Aho was a pain for goaltenders, potting a career high 37 goals with 13 of them coming on the power play. Game-breakers come in different packages and while Aho creates a lot in transition, most of his goal-scoring comes off “ugly” plays. He will always find a way to make space for himself off a cycle, get to a loose puck in the crease or get a decent one-time off from an awkward angle. This makes him the Hurricanes MVP when considering everything else he brings to the table.

Andrei Svechnikov

While passing the Michigan torch to Trevor Zegras, Svechnikov has emerged as one of the better playmakers in the league, although his assist total didn’t reflect that. Even after a 30-goal season, it felt like he left some offense on the table due to goalposts or poor finishing luck, both from him and his linemates. Creating offense has been so effortless for him since he came into the league and as he gets stronger, it’s been easy for him to get a step on defenders off the rush or winning a battle in front of the net. His underlying stats reflect this, as he is one of the best players in the league at creating scoring chances and high danger passes. It’s plausible to think there’s another level to Svechnikov’s game when taking this into account, especially with scoring increasing across the league. Right now, he’s in that upper echelon of players but inconsistent scoring along with his habit of taking countless undisciplined stick penalties keep him from the elite tier. He could easily be the best player on the Hurricanes by this time next year, as it only takes one stretch where everything clicks to break that glass ceiling.

Teuvo Teravainen

Sometimes good players benefit from playing in great situations and that was the case for Teravainen, scoring 9 power play goals from the right circle as PKs focused on Aho and getting plenty of lay-up scoring chances from Svechnikov. Primarily known as a playmaker and someone you’d have to beg to shoot the puck, Teravainen regained some of his goal-scoring touch and made the most of getting to play with some talented linemates. It’s nothing out of the ordinary for him, as he’s usually Aho’s wingman but his role is more about giving his linemates space, quick passes from the boards and great defensive positioning rather than highlight reel goals. As one of the smartest and longest tenured players on the team, Teravainen can probably excel in any role coach Brind’Amour puts him in. He might be leaned on for more goal-scoring now with Trocheck and Niederreiter going out the door and Pacioretty not available until February. Some of the extra offense they got from Teravainen came at the expense of his usually elite defensive play, which is a sacrifice the Hurricanes might be willing to make if they need him to be more than just the steady, complementary piece on the top line.

Max Pacioretty

When healthy, Pacioretty is exactly what the Hurricanes needed in the playoffs. A winger who can give them an “easy” goal while being a fit for the team’s forechecking system. Unfortunately, they won’t have him in their lineup for the first four months of the season, as he will be recovering from a torn Achilles tendon. This is after a season where he was limited to only 39 games after a foot injury in October and wrist surgery in December. Scoring only seven goals in the 22 games after surgery, it’s fair to wonder if he is still has the power behind his shot that made him such a coveted goal-scorer. Not that players haven’t recovered from injuries before, but the Hurricanes will only have Pacioretty for this season and need an immediate impact out of him. We saw him adjust after the injury, scoring most of his goals from close range or off deflections instead of the perimeter and finding sneaky ways to get himself open. Carolina was a perfect match for him on paper, as they’re a team that dominates the territorial play and needs more finish. Pacioretty should give that to them in theory, but they will need to wait awhile before seeing it in action.

Jordan Staal

Now in his mid-30’s, Staal got off to the slowest start of his career, tallying only two goals and 11 points through the first 41 games. His size and strength kept him high in the lineup, but the lack of offense was a genuine concern for the Canes captain. Then the switch flipped in the second half of the year and the went on a mini tear, scoring 15 goals in his final 37 games and finishing with a respectable scoring line. Staal does so much for the team as their top defensive center that any offense he produces is just gravy, but those who have watched him for awhile knew it was a matter of time before the dam broke for him. His line with Nino Niederreiter and Jesper Fast was very important for the Hurricanes if they needed a good shift after a goal or when they got hemmed in. The approach was very basic, get below the goal line and go to work, but it was the team’s identity and eventually Staal got some reward for it. Niederreiter leaving might be a big hit to Staal’s goal-production, but the Hurricanes have enough worker bee type wingers that they should be able to find a good running mate for him this year. Hopefully the offense will be a little more consistent.

Seth Jarvis

It was impressive how seamlessly Jarvis fit into the Hurricanes lineup. Not seeing his first game until Halloween, it was obvious from the get-go that he wasn’t going back to the WHL anytime soon. His speed and insane lower body strength made him a fit on the fourth line and he quickly earned a promotion to the top-six. Fitting in as a player who could bring a high-motor element to Aho’s line for quick-strike offense and as a grinder who could get Aho or Svechnikov the puck from below the dots or vice versa. Being a right-shot wing also helped, as it was easier for him to receive some of Aho’s passes in the slot or off give-and-go’s in the neutral zone. Combine that with the pace he plays at and Jarvis was exactly what the team needed heading into last year and someone they could heavily rely on for offense next year. Only 20 years old, he should be trending upwards but there is going to be more pressure on him to produce with some of the roster departures. Jarvis was arguably the team’s best forward in the playoffs, which is a great sign if the Hurricanes want him to be a core player going forward.

Martin Necas

One year ago, Necas looked like an emerging star. The way he processed the game was so different from everyone else on the team, creating offense out of nothing and pulling the Hurricanes back into games on his own. He had his flaws, but they were the kind you live with because he looked like the type of player who could shift the momentum on a dime. Unfortunately, this didn’t carry over. Offense didn’t come as easy for Necas and he found himself trying to do too much on his own, leading to a lot of missed plays and prolonged scoring droughts. The talent is still there, he is one of the Hurricanes best players at setting up shots, but he had trouble when no passing options were available, and he had to take the puck to the net on his own. He would circle the net or get caught in between passing and shooting, leading to missed chances or him shoveling the puck on goal from an awkward angle. Quicker decision making is required with the Hurricanes, but the cerebral nature of Necas’ game is what makes him a special talent and you don’t want to take that away. He had a good season and was a big part of Carolina’s aggressive penalty kill, but there is another level to his game that Carolina will have to unlock.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Carolina’s decision to offer-sheet Kotkaniemi and treat him as if he’s an older prospect was a little confusing. The 22-year-old spent most of last season on the fourth line and only saw an increased role in short spells. The decision to sign him to a seven-year contract is a steep bet, making him part of the team’s core going forward. His first year with Carolina was solid, but there is always an asterisk when you’re projecting someone who played fourth line minutes to jump into a 2C role. He played good minutes in Montreal, but some similar issues remain. He has one of the best shots on the team, but it takes an extra second for him to release it and will opt for the simple play more times than not. Most of his offense was off long cycles where the team was already setup in the offensive zone and while he made some progress there, it was against a lot of depth defensemen and checking line players. Some players can make the jump to the top-six seamlessly and Kotkaniemi will be setup to succeed with Carolina’s great depth on the wings. It might work in his favor, as he will have some more space to create instead of having to constantly fight off checks on the fourth line. He will also be tasked with carrying more of a workload in transition and the defensive zone, something he can do but didn’t have much of a role in last year. The former third overall pick might not live up to his draft status, but he has shown signs of becoming a good middle-six center, which is what the Hurricanes are paying him to be, if he can make the ice-time jump.

Jesper Fast

Someone is going to have to pick up the slack with Carolina’s offense and a dark horse candidate for that is Jesper Fast. He was quietly one of the team’s better 5v5 goal-scorers last year, recording a career-high 14 goals most of which coming while standing in front of the net after Nino Niederreiter or Jordan Staal won a puck below the goal-line. A responsible defensive forward, Fast has shown some offensive flashes in the past and the defined role on Jordan Staal’s line worked to his favor. Most of his game is based on positioning and making quick plays to help with breakouts and being a disruptive force on the forecheck, but he got to show some of his skill last year. Having some offensive pop on top of posting some of the best underlying numbers on the team is never a bad thing. It’s tough to say if his goal-scoring ways will continue last year, as he lost a key linemate in Nino Niederreiter. That said, he should continue to be a key part of the Canes third line. He could see some second power play unit time, as he played the netfront role in the past.

DEFENSE

Brent Burns

Everyone knows what they’re getting with Brent Burns, so the two questions heading into this year are how much he will play and how will switching teams effect his point total. The big change with him over the last two years is that his shot volume totals have plummeted, which in turn hurt his counting stats. Burns production has declined along with the Sharks play and now he’s going to a team notorious for spending most of the game in the offensive zone. Logic suggests that Burns will see a bit of a return to form, as his puck skills haven’t declined as much as his point totals suggest. Burns was still one of the better blue-liners in the league at setting up scoring chances, creating offense off the rush and exiting the zone. The only thing that has been missing is the shot volume and ability to command the offensive zone like he did in the Sharks heyday. Will that change with the Hurricanes and their strong forecheck, or will it be similar to last year with the Sharks as the Canes have seen some of their forward talent leave via free agency? It will be interesting to see this work in action. He brings a similar profile to what they had in both Dougie Hamilton and Tony DeAngelo but is much older with two careers worth of ice-time on his tires.

Jaccob Slavin

The modern-day shutdown defenseman, Slavin is the type of player who could put up zero points and still have a positive impact. There are few players in the league who are as good at skating forwards into a corner or using their stick as him. He also covers a ton of ground in the defensive zone, disrupting most plays before they even start and quickly getting the puck out of the zone to relieve pressure. He was tasked with more of an offensive role last year with Tony DeAngelo as his partner. He ended up having a career year in points and showed some real upside there, especially with shooting for deflections and making soft passes to the front of the net from the left point. It was the most growth he has shown in that part of the game, at least at even strength, running the power play is something he hasn’t quite figured out yet. While he didn’t play pure shutdown minutes, Slavin still played 23-25 minutes a night and was the Jenga piece for Carolina’s blue line. If he had an off night, it was usually bad news for the Canes. Those were few and far between though as he had a stellar season and adapted to playing in more offensive situations. This should continue next year with the roving Brent Burns projected to be his defense partner.

Brett Pesce

Looking at Brett Pesce’s profile and watching him play is quite the contrast. He’s tall but not towering, has a good frame but isn’t physically intimidating. His shot isn’t very powerful, a great skater with good edges but not a burner like Cale Makar. He looks like someone who would top out as a depth defenseman at the NHL level, but he is one of the better shutdown defenders in the league. Playing a pure defensive role with Brady Skjei for the past two years has been up-and-down for him. He can still break-up plays at the blue line better than most and can skate his way out of pressure. His defensive impact, however, usually varies depending on who he is paired with. A predictable partner like Slavin or Calvin de Haan will yield good results for him while a more aggressive, roaming partner like Skjei or Edmundson will leave him covering for more mistakes and sometimes it’s too much for him to handle. This was the case for him at times last year, but history suggests that he will rebound and return to the reliable defender he was for most of his career. A down year for him is a good year for most in the league.

Brady Skjei

2021-22 was a revival for Skjei and it came out of nowhere. After seemingly topping out as a low-end 4/5 defenseman, he had a career year offensively and posted some of his best underlying stats since his rookie year. All awhile playing a tough shutdown role with Brett Pesce. The Hurricanes have done well to make the game easier for Skjei, giving him the greenlight to join the rush and allowing him to stand up at the line with Pesce or a forward backing him up if he gets beat. His size and skating were always going to be his calling cards and translating it to game situations was the challenge. This started to come around last year, he had a career season offensively and looked like a threat to score instead of someone who would spam low percentage shots from the boards. The high-risk nature of his game is still an issue, but it's something the Hurricanes are more content with now that they’re seeing the rewards. It gives the Hurricanes second pair a different look even though their primary job is shutting down top lines. Skjei’s aggressive nature and playing style was a big part of that with how often he would pinch to keep pucks in, push for offense or quickly re-enter the zone after a long shift. He had 39 points with zero power play time last year, so he could challenge for a spot on the second unit if Slavin continues to struggle there.

GOALTENDING

Frederik Andersen

When Carolina opted to jettison all their existing goaltenders in favor of a pair of over-thirty veterans with lengthy injury histories, it seemed hard to put big money down in favor of a successful Hurricanes year; after all, it would only take one ill-timed pair of injuries to both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta for the team to find themselves out in the wind with the playoffs on the line.

Luckily, the gamble worked out in their favor – and while neither vet had been willing to sign on a year-by-year basis, Andersen’s year was impressive enough to feel comfortable with him coming back for yet another season with the Metropolitan Division club. At 32-years old, Andersen .922 unadjusted save percentage and four shutouts were good for a whopping 35 team wins and the goaltender’s best statistical season since his rookie year. Very few goaltenders are able to do a complete one-eighty after struggling as hard as Andersen did during his final year in Toronto – but whatever Carolina did clearly worked. After a year of watching the Danish netminder struggle to accurately read shot rebounds and recover comfortably in order to face second shots, Andersen’s sharp instincts looked good as new during the 2021-22 season. He didn’t change much about his core style – he remained a goaltender who seems most comfortable pushing forward into shots and holding down the fort with clear sightlines instead of asking his defense to crowd his crease, with a preference for cutting down open space instead of waiting out shooters. But instead of fighting against the defensive system in front of him, which he seemed to be almost forced to do during his tenure in Toronto, he was able to play to his strengths with the Hurricanes and hit his stride. His only negative was the lack of consistency he posted; despite having some of the league’s best numbers, his quality start percentage sat just a hair above the average. But as long as he’s able to truly split the net with tandem partner Antti Raanta, which should prevent the more-consistent Finnish veteran from suffering more injuries, that shouldn’t be a big enough problem to hurt the Hurricanes in their push to hit the Stanley Cup Final.

Projected starts: 45-50

Antti Raanta

After nearly a decade in the NHL, it seems fair to say that Antti Raanta is a known entity in net. The 33-year-old former Blackhawks, Rangers, and Coyotes backstop remains one of the NHL’s most reliable goaltenders from a performance standpoint – so long as you don’t need him to hold down the fort entirely on his own for lengthy periods of time. Even when playing a true tandem with Frederik Andersen, Raanta suffered a slew of minor injuries that kept him out of games and left Andersen to man the pipes without him.

As Carolina seems to have figured out, though, Raanta still provides incredible value in a tandem situation. He didn’t put up quite the same level save percentage that Andersen did during his 28 regular season games with the Hurricanes, but that was more a byproduct of his consistency than it was a problem with his quality of performance. His quality start percentage matched Andersen’s nearly perfectly, and he only posted one start that classified as a Really Bad Start using Rob Vollman’s metric (which calculates the percentage of starts a goaltender actively inhibits his team’s chance of winning a game, recording a save percentage below 85%). In comparison, Andersen – who played in just under double the number of games Raanta did – posted five Really Bad Starts; while Andersen clearly posted higher highs than Raanta, he also posted lower lows. That’s a benefit of the structured, utilitarian style that Raanta plays; despite being one of the smallest goaltenders in the league, he keeps his skates within the blue paint and relies on patience to goad shooters into showing their hands before he drops to his knees. He lacks some of the high-end speed and lower body power that would likely push him into elite territory, particularly now that he’s so prone to lower-body bumps and bruises. But despite a game that doesn’t particularly challenge the Andrei Vasilevskiys and Igor Shesterkins of the league, his baseline remains incredibly strong – and best of all, he knows exactly what he is and what he’s capable of. Raanta’s spatial awareness sits among some of the best in the league, which gives him enough of an advantage to allow him to slow his game down a bit to ease up on his hips and groin. He may not be a sure bet as a reliable split-share netminder anymore, but he’s unlikely to hurt Carolina much, either.

Projected starts: 35-40

2022 NHL PLAYOFFS: TORONTO VS. TAMPA BAY – Leafs must go through defending Stanley Cup Champs to break long playoff drought

Scott Cullen — Sun, 01 May 2022 15:12:01 +0000

TAMPA, FL - APRIL 21: Toronto Maple Leafs Center John Tavares (91) is defended by Tampa Bay Lightning Defenceman Victor Hedman (77) as Tampa Bay Lightning Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) tries to look around them during a game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning on April 21, 2022, at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire)

TORONTO vs. TAMPA BAY

A look at the underlying numbers supports the notion that the Maple Leafs are a slightly better team than the Lightning, but it gets more complicated when it is put into context. That is, the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions are facing a team that last won a Cup in 1967 and has not won a round in the playoffs since 2003-2004.

There was no easy matchup to be had coming out of the Atlantic Division this year and one of the Leafs or Lightning is going to be very disappointed with a first-round loss.

Forwards

Toronto had six 20-goal scorers this season, led by Auston Matthews with 60. So much of the Maple Leafs attack runs through their big four forwards – Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander – but Alex Kerfoot, Ilya Mikheyev, and Pierre Engvall have been useful in supporting roles. Michael Bunting has been outstanding on the left wing with Matthews and Marner but is injured and may not be ready for the start of the playoffs. Ondrej Kase has been effective when healthy, too, and he is still trying to make his way back from a concussion.

The Lightning had to overhaul their third line after losing Blake Coleman, Yanni Gourde, and Barclay Goodrow last offseason, but they brought in Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul at the trade deadline and, along with Ross Colton and Corey Perry, the Lightning once again have some depth behind their stars. And their stars are proven on the biggest stage under the brightest lights. Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos are stars, while Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, and Anthony Cirelli are nice complementary pieces. Point was banged up late in the season and it would be a huge deal if he is not ready to go from the first puck drop in this series.

Defense

Toronto has been actively improving their blueline and the challenge now seems to be health and making sure they pick the right guys. Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, and Mark Giordano have all performed to expectations. Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl have both had question marks hanging over their play for most of the season. Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren have both been great while working on the third pair. That’s seven, plus Ilya Lyubushkin, who adds a physical edge and, suddenly, it’s not so easy for the Maple Leafs to use six when everyone is healthy. For all the grief that the Maple Leafs have taken for their defensive play over the years, they have excelled defensively this season, ranking sixth in score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts allowed and fourth in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes of 5v5 play. That’s the kind of defensive play that they will need to stymie Tampa Bay’s elite scoring forwards.

Victor Hedman is a perennial Norris Trophy contender, so the Lightning have that going for them. Ryan McDonagh, Mikhail Sergachev, and Erik Cernak have all proven to be big-time players in Tampa Bay’s recent Stanley Cup runs. Jan Rutta, Zach Bogosian, and Callan Foote provide the depth and the Lightning are only slightly behind Toronto when it comes in terms of shot suppression. Just as the Maple Leafs need their defense to respond to Tampa Bay’s top scoring forwards, the Lightning defense will have to neutralize Matthews, Marner, Tavares, and Nylander.

Goaltending

Early in this season, Maple Leafs goaltender Jack Campbell was playing at a ridiculously high level and there was nothing to worry about, at least until regression reared its ugly head and Campbell went through a long slump, followed by injury. He appeared to be back on track late in the season and the Maple Leafs will need him to play well just to escape the first round.

There is no team in the league that can have the same kind of confidence in their goaltender’s playoff performance as the Lightning do for Andrei Vasilevskiy. He did have an .856 save percentage in 2019 when the Lightning were shockingly swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round, but Vasilevskiy has a .924 save percentage in 81 career playoff games. He is a proven big-game goalie and that gives the Lightning an edge on virtually any team.

Special Teams

Toronto had the best power play in the league this season, scoring 10.23 goals per 60 minutes of 5v4 play. Having the league’s top goal scorer doesn’t hurt, as Auston Matthews has 16 power play goals, but John Tavares and William Nylander combined for 23 power play goals as well.

Tampa Bay’s power play has been above average, scoring 8.10 goals per 60 minutes during 5v4 play, but when it’s going, it is a terrifying experience, with Stamkos and Kucherov in opposing faceoff circles, ready to launch.

There is not much of a difference when it comes to penalty killing as the Maple Leafs and Lightning rank 11th and 12th, respectively, when it comes to fewest goals against during 4v5 play this season.

Conclusion

Statistically, it is easy enough to make a case for the Toronto Maple Leafs having a small edge over the Lightning based on the performance of the two clubs this season. However, that case gets more difficult when factoring in the relative histories of the two franchises. The Lightning have won back-to-back Stanley Cups and have the talent to legitimately vie for a third consecutive championship while the Maple Leafs are notorious for never getting out of the first round. Lightning in 7.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Big forwards that are elevating their production, including Anders Lee, Lawson Crouse, Jordan Greenway and more, plus a few trades getting done before Monday’s deadline with Calle Jarnkrok, Ben Chiarot, and Josh Manson already on the move.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 17:49:28 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, big forwards that are elevating their production, including Anders Lee, Lawson Crouse, Jordan Greenway and more, plus a few trades getting done before Monday’s deadline with Calle Jarnkrok, Ben Chiarot, and Josh Manson already on the move.

#1 Coming off a torn ACL last season, New York Islanders captain Anders Lee had a rough start to this season, managing four goals and no assists through his first 15 games. His performance since then has been uneven – some good, some bad – but Lee is now on a six-game goal-scoring streak, during which he has 10 points (9 G, 1 A).and 19 shots on goal. Since 2017-2018, Lee has scored 123 goals in 311 games to rank 28^th in the league over that time.

#2 In deep leagues, Arizona Coyotes left winger Lawson Crouse has had value from time to time because he provides hits in addition to modest offensive contributions but what happens when the scoring contributions are more than modest? In his past six games, Crouse has put up eight points (5 G, 3 A), 11 shots and 19 hits. Crouse is up to a career-high 19 goals in 59 games.

#3 Sticking with the trend of big wingers making a mark, Minnesota Wild left winger Jordan Greenway has not had a terribly productive season, but Greenway recently missed a couple of weeks with an injury and since returning to action has contributed three points (2 G, 1 A), 13 shots on goal, and 12 hits in five games.

#4 With Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog on the shelf with a knee injury, opportunity is knocking for Valeri Nichushkin, a powerful winger that I have recommended at various times this season already, but he’s now skating on Colorado’s top line and getting first-unit power play time. In his past 21 games, Nichushkin has 16 points (5 G, 11 A) and 59 shots on goal, but the chance to play with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen is even more appealing than Nichushkin’s recent level of production.

#5 Ottawa Senators defenseman Thomas Chabot has suffered a broken hand which could keep him out for the rest of the season, and for fantasy purposes, it opens the door for someone else to quarterback the Ottawa power play. Enter Erik Brannstrom, a 22-year-old puck-mover who has just five assists in 31 games. Brannstrom played a career-high 27:53 in the Senators’ last game, so he may be looking at an opportunity to play a big role down the stretch for Ottawa.

OTTAWA, ON - JANUARY 16: Ottawa Senators Center Josh Norris (9) skates during the second period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs on January 16, 2021 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

#6 Senators center Josh Norris missed five weeks with a shoulder injury, but he has been excellent since returning to the lineup, tallying eight points (6 G, 2 A) along with 19 shots on goal in eight games. Norris has played 100 NHL games over the past two seasons, scoring 41 goals. His 0.41 goals per game across the past two seasons is tied with the likes of Mitch Marner, Mika Zibanejad, Andrew Mangiapane, and Matt Duchene.

#7 Moved to the Edmonton Oilers top line with Connor McDavid and Evander Kane, Kailer Yamamoto is starting to produce after what has been a mostly mediocre season. He started the year with just six points (5 G, 1 A) in his first 28 games but has started to come around. During his current four-game goal-scoring streak, Yamamoto has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 11 shots on goal.

#8 Industrious Toronto Maple Leafs right winger Ondrej Kase has been a welcome source of secondary scoring for the Leafs. In his past six games, Kase has six points (4 G, 2 a) and 14 shots on goal. In the past couple of games, he has been skating on the second line, with Alex Kerfoot and William Nylander, which offers a little more offensive upside than when he skates on the wing of David Kampf’s line.

#9 With Bruins center Patrice Bergeron injured, Boston is dependent on the rest of their centers to fill the void. This is an opportunity for Charlie Coyle to step up and Coyle has been more productive recently, delivering 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in his past 16 games. Coyle has 33 points in 61 games this season and that 0.54 points per game is his highest since 2017-2018.

#10 The Calgary Flames made another savvy move before the trade deadline, acquiring versatile forward Calle Jarnkrok from the Seattle Kraken. Jarnkrok has been playing 16:48 per game this season, tying his average time on ice last season for the highest of his career, and there is a decent chance that he will not be required to play that much in Calgary. Jarnkrok has 26 points (12 G, 14 A) in 49 games, the fourth time in the past five seasons that he has averaged better than 0.50 points per game. That should fit comfortably in the Flames’ middle six up front.

#11 The other big trade from Wednesday was the Florida Panthers paying a big price to get defenseman Ben Chiarot from the Montreal Canadiens. Chiarot has deep league fantasy appeal, particularly after a recent scoring surge saw him put up nine points (2 G, 7 A) in his last nine games for the Habs. With Chiarot departing, the most obvious candidate to fill that ice time on the Canadiens blueline is Joel Edmundson, the veteran blueliner who has just returned to the lineup, playing his first two games of the season.

#12 Earlier in the week, the Colorado Avalanche made a big acquisition with their deal for veteran right-shot defenseman Josh Manson from the Anaheim Ducks. Manson only has nine points (4 G, 5 A) in 45 games this season, but he did have three points in his last three games with the Ducks before the trade. While the scoring numbers may not make much of a difference in Colorado, Manson had 10 hits in his first game for the Avs, so there might be some peripheral stats value for fantasy managers.

#13 With Boone Jenner sidelined, Jack Roslovic has moved up the depth chart for the Columbus Blue Jackets and sometimes all that is needed is a better opportunity. In his past 12 games, Roslovic has contributed nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 19 shots on goal. Roslovic had a breakthrough season last year, scoring 34 points in 48 games, but his ice time is way down this season, from 16:54 per game last season to 12:38 per game this season.

#14 21-year-old Arizona Coyotes center Barrett Hayton has taken some time to make his mark since he was the fifth overall pick in the 2018 Draft, but he should be looking at a consistent role for the rest of the season as Arizona tries to find players that can be part of the long-term plan in the desert. In Hayton’s case, he has put up eight points (3 G, 5 A) in the past eight games and that might give him some sleeper value late in the season.

#15 Florida Panthers rookie goaltender Spencer Knight was a potential Calder Trophy candidate coming into the season, but his performance was underwhelming enough that he ended getting sent to the AHL where he had a .905 save percentage in 11 games, hardly an assurance that he would be able to handle his return to the NHL, but Knight has been excellent since returning to the Panthers, posting a .928 save percentage in four starts.

#16 Carolina Hurricanes backup goaltender Antti Raanta has had trouble staying healthy for long enough to secure a starting job, but he has performed well enough to have value when he is healthy. In his past six starts for the ‘Canes, Raanta has a .930 save percentage, lifting his save percentage for the season to .917. For fantasy spots starts, Raanta is worth considering.

#17 Since the All-Star break, the NHL leaders in primary points (goals plus first assists) per game (minimum 10 games): Patrick Kane, J.T. Miller, Auston Matthews, Elias Lindholm, Nick Schmaltz, Jonathan Huberdeau, Connor McDavid, Clayton Keller, Jack Hughes, and Kirill Kaprizov. Miller is playing as well as he ever has while Schmaltz and Keller are driving Arizona’s sudden offensive explosion. Hughes has been playing at a star level since returning from injury.

#18 Nashville defenseman Roman Josi has produced a whopping 28 points in his last 15 games, surging into the scoring lead among defensemen with 72 points in 59 games, ahead of Colorado’s Cale Makar, who has 66 points in 57 games.

#19 Since the All-Star break, the players with the highest rate of individual shot attempts per 60 minutes (minimum 100 5v5 minutes): Viktor Arvidsson, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, Victor Olofsson, Arthur Kaliyev, David Pastrnak, Nic Hague, and Jake Walman. Some of those names are familiar and expected but Kings rookie winger Kaliyev along with Golden Knights defenseman Hague and Blues defenseman Walman are more surprising.

#20 Skaters with the highest on-ice xGF/60 since the All-Star break (minimum 100 5v5 minutes): Mitch Marner, Patrice Bergeron, Auston Matthews, Timothy Liljegren, Michael Bunting, Connor McDavid, Thomas Harley, Mikko Rantanen, Evan Bouchard, and Trevor Moore. Toronto’s top line is dominating and Bergeron, McDavid, and Rantanen are entirely expected to create quality scoring chances, but young defensemen Liljegren, Harley, and Bouchard are driving positive results when they are on the ice.

#21 The players that have been most snakebit since the All-Star break, with the greatest difference between their all-situations expected goals and their actual goals: Brendan Gallagher, Anthony Beauvillier, Andrew Copp, Rasmus Asplund, Alex Iafallo, Roope Hintz, Nazem Kadri, Joe Pavelski, John Tavares, and Mikko Rantanen. From that group, I would expect Hintz, Tavares, and Rantanen to be the most likely to see their goal-scoring numbers improve down the stretch.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2019-20 YEARBOOK: Breakouts and Hidden Gems

McKeen's Hockey — Sat, 07 Sep 2019 11:21:34 +0000

McKeen’s Breakout and Hidden Gems are developed following our exhaustive prediction research for the coming season. They highlight some picks that we think will exceed expectations and help you win your pool. We look at points and point per game differentials, league and team trends, and then trim the list to players that will not be obvious to your opponents.

Player	AGE	P	GP	G	A	PTS
Anthony Cirelli, TB	22	C	82	21	34	55
Emerged a possession driver on Tampa's third line - & saw some top-line duties in the playoffs
Shea Theodore, VGK	24	D	81	14	35	49
Blossomed playing his off-wing side (right) alongside Brayden McNabb - and can reach higher ground
Rudolfs Balcers, Ott	22	LW	66	15	17	32
Acquired in the Erik Karlsson deal, swift-skating Latvian winger impressed in NHL trial last season
Casey Mittelstadt, Buf	20	C	74	16	23	39
Sabres hope new coach Krueger can stimulate a breakthrough after overwhelming pro debut
Tanner Pearson, Van	27	RW	82	25	20	45
Clicked playing right wing with Bo Horvat after being acquired at the trade deadline
Pavel Buchnevich, NYR	24	RW	80	28	33	61
Big breakout numbers projected spurred by arrival of fellow Russian countryman Artemi Panarin
Filip Hronek, Det	21	D	76	7	32	39
Czech defender handled significant workload in NHL debut (19:58 ATOI) - contributing 23 points in just 46 games
Nikita Gusev, NJ	27	LW	76	11	37	48
KHL scoring champ arrives to New Jersey and the NHL via Vegas and Tampa
Nazem Kadri, Col	28	C	82	30	35	65
Could eclipse career numbers playing behind MacKinnon's after arriving in summer deal for Tyson Barrie
Jack Roslovic, Wpg	22	C	82	14	26	40
Playmaking pivot enters fourth pro season ready to take on a larger role with Jets
Henrik Borgstrom, Fla	22	C	78	14	23	37
Expect progress from talented sophomore pivot en route to doubling his rookie totals
Charlie Coyle, Bos	27	RW	82	22	28	50
B's valuable trade-deadline acquisition could see move over/up to second-line wing spot
Kyle Palmieri, NJ	28	RW	78	38	28	66
Will soar to career high in goals as major beneficiary of surrounding playmaking talent
Anthony Mantha, Det	24	RW	77	32	35	67
Soared down the stretch on top line with Larkin & Bertuzzi - a precursor to fourth year breakout
Andreas Johnsson, Tor	24	LW	77	26	29	55
Opportunity knocks for Swedish winger to flourish on top line with Matthews and Nylander
Troy Terry, Ana	22	RW	66	9	20	29
Key part of Ducks' youth wave rebounding from broken leg sustained at end of solid pro debut
Filip Chytil, NYR	20	C	79	15	26	41
Expect leap in sophomore totals with opportunity as second-line center between Kreider and Buchnevich
Nick Schmaltz, Ari	23	C	82	22	33	55
Meshed well with Clayton Keller prior to suffering a season-ending knee injury
Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Mtl	19	C	81	20	31	51
Displayed remarkable poise and maturity as NHL's youngest player last season
Tyson Jost, Col	21	LW	81	16	28	44
Moves to wing alongside incoming Nazem Kadri and likely breakout totals in third pro term
Ondrej Kase, Ana	23	RW	81	26	24	50
Larger role ahead for creative Czech winger after injury cut short 2018-19 season
Joakim Nygard, Edm	26	LW	68	14	19	33
Oilers add speedy 26-year0old winger who has steadily improved through six SEL seasons
Roope Hintz, Dal	22	C	78	20	24	44
Earned spot alongside newcomer Joe Pavelski after crashing postseason with team-high five goals (tied)
Goaltender	AGE	P	GP	W	G	W
MacKenzie Blackwood, G, NJ	22	G	56	27	23	10
Seized opportunity with Schneider injury to make solid NHL debut - and could thrive on improved Devils
Elvis Merzlikins, G, CBJ	25	G	40	19	NA	NA
Charismatic Latvian and Lugano star jumps to the NHL - in wake of Bobrovsky mutiny

MCKEEN’S 2019-20 YEARBOOK: Under the Radar Fantasy All-stars

Scott Cullen — Thu, 05 Sep 2019 22:35:11 +0000

Finding value in fantasy hockey can be the difference between winning and losing. While it’s always exciting to select the biggest stars in the early rounds finding value in middle to later rounds can make a real difference.

You could have a hunch about which players that you think will be better than expected, and that’s fine – fantasy hockey is for fun, after all – but there are some relatively established guidelines for finding players whose production may exceed their perceived value.

It’s useful to understand perception because that indicates how early a player may get drafted or how much it will cost to acquire them in an auction. Perception is a significant factor in whether a player’s production can provide relative value and perception is often driven by goal and assist totals from the previous season.

But by looking beyond raw goals and assists, it’s evident that player value can be predicated on fluctuating percentages. A player who sees his own shooting percentage, or even the shooting percentage of others when he’s on the ice, dry up for one season is a prime candidate for a bounce-back performance. That presents an opportunity to secure potential value.

Another avenue that can provide value is to find players who excel in the less glamorous categories: hits, blocked shots, even shots on goal. Obviously, getting goals and assists is important but, in roto leagues, all categories count the same, so there is some appeal – albeit maybe a little less obvious – when it comes to players contributing in the “peripheral” categories.

The objective, then, for fantasy owners is to find some players that will be more productive than they have been previously or those that are looking to recover from a down season. There are risks involved but that’s where the value lies. Hit on a couple of the right players and your fantasy squad will start moving in the right direction.

Here is an all-star team of potential value players, those that could surprise and possibly exceed their fantasy draft slot this season.

Anaheim Ducks Right Wing Ondrej Kase (25) (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Filip Forsberg, LW, Nashville – The 25-year-old winger has scored enough highlight-reel goals that he’s not flying under the radar but he’s coming off a season in which he finished with 50 points, his fewest in a full season, and he’s missed 33 games over the past two seasons. A healthy Forsberg is a difference maker. Over the past four seasons, he ranks 19^th in goals per game (0.40) and 29^th in shots on goal per game (2.97). If the Predators can improve what was the league’s worst power play last season, Forsberg’s numbers should rise.

William Nylander, RW, Toronto – Quite possibly the most obvious candidate for a bounce-back season. The 23-year-old managed just seven goals in 54 games after a protracted contract negotiation caused him to miss the first two months of the 2018-2019 season. However, Nylander generated a career-best 9.6 shots per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play and finished with a career-low 5.4% shooting percentage so his underlying numbers were strong and undermined by that terrible shooting percentage. Presuming that the Maple Leafs get Nylander back to his more customary spot on Auston Matthews’ wing, the scoring chances will be there and Nylander’s production will get back on track.

Mika Zibanejad, C, N.Y. Rangers – It’s hard to get a bargain on a player who scored a career-high 74 points last season, and this is usually the type of player for which I might warn against paying full retail prices but Zibanejad could get another boost from playing with prized free agent addition Artemi Panarin. Throughout his career, Panarin’s lines have typically generated a lot of shots and, usually, finish at an above-average rate, which keeps the door open for another productive scoring season for Zibanejad.

J.T. Miller, LW, Vancouver – Playing in Tampa Bay last season, Miller scored 13 goals and averaged fewer than 15 minutes of ice time per game, his lowest marks since 2014-2015. Joining Vancouver, where the Canucks have fewer quality options up front, Miller is much more likely to hold a prominent role in the Canucks’ offense all season and he is a three-time 20-goal scorer who had a career-high 58 points in 2017-2018.

Jordan Eberle, RW, N.Y. Islanders – After years of consistent production, Eberle had his worst season in 2018-2019, his 37 points tying his previous career low which was set during the 2012-2013 lockout season when he played just 48 games. That lack of production was backed up by a career-low 2.05 shots on goal per game but Eberle responded in the postseason, with nine points in eight games and, importantly, generating more than three shots on goal per game. If Eberle makes his home on Mathew Barzal’s wing, it is reasonable to believe that he can bounce back closer to his previously established level of scoring performance.

Jaden Schwartz, LW, St. Louis – Somehow Schwartz managed just 11 goals and 36 points during the 2018-2019 regular season despite averaging a career-high 2.65 shots on goal per game. He recovered in the playoffs, scoring 12 goals in 26 games on the way to the Blues’ first Stanley Cup. With strong underlying numbers, it will come as little surprise if Schwartz’s regular season production far exceeds what he provided last season.

Ondrej Kase, RW, Anaheim – A prime breakout candidate for the past couple of years, the 23-year-old winger looked to be on his way last season. After starting the season on the shelf with a concussion, Kase had scored 11 goals in 30 games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher was the only player in the league to generate shots and shot attempts at a higher rate per minute than Kase, so if the Ducks winger is healthy enough to handle a prominent role for a full season, he might finally get that breakthrough campaign.

Alex Galchenyuk, RW, Pittsburgh – Forever looking to fulfill his potential, the 25-year-old gets another chance with his third NHL franchise. Last season’s 41 points was Galchenyuk’s lowest point total since 2013-2014 but he moves to a Penguins lineup that could give him a chance to skate with either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin at evens and, potentially, with both on the power play. Galchenyuk has produced 45 points on the power play in the past two seasons with Arizona and Montreal, and neither of those teams has a power play that can compare with what the Penguins have been rolling out in recent seasons.

Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Carolina – While a rookie season of 20 goals and 37 points was a nice debut for the 19-year-old winger, he’s just getting started. Svechnikov can generate shots but notably created high-quality chances. Among forwards to play at least 100 5-on-5 minutes last season, none had a higher rate of expected goals for per 60 than Svechnikov’s 3.34. The Hurricanes are a solid team but could use more high-end scorers to lead the attack and Svechnikov will eventually be one of those players, but maybe he makes that leap as soon as this season.

Tyler Toffoli, RW, Los Angeles – A three-time 20-goal scorer who has played all 82 games in three of the past four seasons, Toffoli’s 34 points in 82 games last season was the worst per-game production of his career. He scored on just 5.8% of his shots, well below his mark of 11.1% in his previous 375 games, and his on-ice shooting percentage of 6.4% was also a career-low. If Toffoli continues to generate shots and his percentages recover to a more typical level, then his goal and point totals would get a boost.

Roope Hintz, LW, Dallas – Even though he finished with a modest 22 points in 58 games as a rookie, the 22-year-old Stars forward finished strong with 11 points in the last 14 regular-season games before adding eight points in 13 playoff contests. He has the combination of size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds), speed, and skill to generate chances and his late-season surge gives him a regular spot in the lineup to provide the Stars with much-needed secondary offense.

Kevin Fiala, RW, Minnesota – The 23-year-old winger struggled after he was acquired from Nashville, managing seven points in 19 games with the Wild, but his on-ice shooting percentage was an absurdly low 3.0%. Fiala will have an opportunity to play a significant role in Minnesota and has such strong underlying numbers in terms of creating chances that it’s not a stretch to expect him to be better this season and he should be priced at a discount.

Nick Ritchie, LW, Anaheim – A 23-year-old power forward who tallied a career-high 31 points in 60 games last season, Ritchie offers additional value because he’s a banger. Even with a dip in hits last season, Ritchie has still averaged at least two hits per game for three straight seasons so if he scores enough to warrant consideration, his hit totals will offer additional value.

Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin (26) (Photo by John Crouch/Icon Sportswire)

DEFENSE

Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo – The first pick in the 2018 Draft isn’t going to sneak by too many but his rookie season was phenomenal – his 44 points was the most by an 18-year-old rookie defenseman since Phil Housley in 1982-1983, and Dahlin’s 2.16 shots on goal per game was only surpassed by Housley and Bobby Orr. This is just the beginning for this puck-moving dynamo and Dahlin is one of the few defensemen with the potential to have an impact as a scorer.

Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg – With the turnover on the Jets’ blueline, opportunity knocks for Morrissey, their top-pair defender who scored a career-high 31 points last season despite playing in just 59 games. Morrissey will have a big role in Winnipeg, and he can fill the stat sheet in multiple categories including hits and blocked shots.

Kevin Shattenkirk, Tampa Bay – Few players are seeking redemption like Shattenkirk, who was bought out of his four-year contract with the New York Rangers after just two seasons. While he’s not the sturdiest defender, the 30-year-old blueliner is consistently productive on the power play and his ability to move the puck ought to play well with a skilled Lightning squad.

Devon Toews, N.Y. Islanders – A 25-year-old who produced 17 points in his first 48 NHL games last season, Toews had four points on the power play during the regular season then matched that total in eight playoff games. He’s a quality puck-mover who should be ready for a bigger role on the Islanders blueline because the Islanders were much better once Toews was inserted into the lineup.

Filip Hronek, Detroit – When veteran Red Wings defenseman Mike Green was injured last season, the door opened wider for Hronek, a 21-year-old right-shot defenseman who had 19 points while playing more than 20 minutes per game in his last 30 games. Green’s presence could pose an initial challenge for Hronek when it comes to power play time but, long-term, Hronek should be a fixture on the Detroit power play.

Jakob Chychrun, Arizona – The key for Chychrun is staying healthy. The 21-year-old has played three NHL seasons and has yet to record a 70-game season. But he produced 20 points in 53 games last season despite a career-low 5.3% on-ice shooting percentage. He could break out merely by having that on-ice shooting percentage come back to a more reasonable level while staying healthy enough to play 75 games.

Arizona Coyotes goalie Antti Raanta (32) (Photo by Adam Lacy/Icon Sportswire)

GOALTENDERS

Martin Jones, San Jose – After a miserable 2018-2019 regular season, during which he had a career-low .896 save percentage, Jones is likely to be a relative bargain to acquire for the 2019-2020 fantasy season, and it’s worthwhile to take that plunge. He had a .915 save percentage over his previous three seasons and is the undisputed starter on a team that should at least be a playoff team and possibly a contender. That role matters because as poorly as Jones performed last season, he still won 36 games, his fourth straight season with at least 30 wins.

Antti Raanta, Arizona – Limited to just a dozen games last season, Raanta had a .927 save percentage in 116 games over the previous four seasons and had established that he was a legit starter for the Coyotes in 2017-2018. If he’s healthy, Raanta should be the No. 1 option for an improved Coyotes team and, because of last season’s injury, could be a draft day bargain.

Pacific Division Training Camp News

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 01 Oct 2018 13:00:50 +0000

Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim Ducks. Injury. Those two went hand-in-hand last season and 2018-19 isn’t off to a particularly good start either. They’ve already lost Corey Perry for the next five months after he suffered a torn meniscus and underwent surgery to repair it. If there is any silver lining there, it’s that this presented Perry with an opportunity to repair pre-existing MCL damage. Apparently, he had been playing through the MCL injury for years now rather than undergo surgery, so once comes back from this, he should be in a much better position than he was at any point in recent years.

In the meantime, Ondrej Kase might end up playing alongside Ryan Getzlaf, though for what it’s worth, that’s not the direction the Ducks went in for Saturday’s preseason game. Instead, Getzlaf and Rickard Rakell were on a line with Troy Terry. Kase was on the third line with Andrew Cogliano and Sam Steel. Terry is someone to keep an eye on. Even if he doesn’t end up on the top line, the Perry injury does increase the chances that the 21-year-old rookie will see significant ice time. He excelled with the University of Denver last season, scoring 14 goals and 48 points in 39 games.

Ryan Kesler (hip) has been making progress but hasn’t been cleared for contact yet and probably won’t be ready at the start of the season. As noted above, Steel was on the third line for Saturday’s preseason game and Kesler’s likely unavailability has improved the chances that he will start with the team. Steel had 131 points in 66 WHL games in 2016-17 and 83 points in 54 WHL contests last season.

Arizona Coyotes

Clayton Keller

Arizona is a team that’s been pegged by a lot of people as a 2017-18 non-playoff team that might leap into the postseason this time. That still might happen, but they’ll have to endure a bit of a rough patch right off the bat. Alex Galchenyuk is week-to-week with what’s probably a groin injury while Christian Dvorak (lower body) is technically day-to-day, but he hasn’t practiced yet during training camp, so his return probably isn’t imminent. That leaves the Coyotes without their second and third-line centers.

Vinnie Hinostroza or Clayton Keller could potentially start the season playing up the middle to help plug that hole. Meanwhile, Dylan Strome might open the campaign as the third-line center. It’s a good opportunity for Strome, who was drafted third overall in 2015 amid very high expectations but hasn’t yet lived up to them. He’s only played in 28 games with Arizona so far, but he did excel in the AHL last season with 22 goals and 53 points in 50 contests.

The injuries might also have an impact on Lawson Crouse, who was originally projected to start on the fourth line but might play a more significant role. It helps that he’s looked good in the preseason. In 2017-18, he had 15 goals and 32 points in 56 AHL contests as well as a goal in 11 games with Arizona.

Calgary Flames

Going into the preseason, one of the big questions involving the Calgary Flames was the status of their top line. Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan would compromise two-third of it – that much was obvious – but who would be the third member? The Flames signed James Neal and acquired then signed Elias Lindholm over the summer, creating the expectation that one of those two would take that top line job. As it turns out, they might share it.

Flames GM Brad Treliving recently raised the possibility that Neal and Lindholm will alternate on the top line depending on the situation. That might not last as the Flames might ultimately start to favor sending out one with Gaudreau and Monahan more often than the other, but it at least seems like we won’t get a more definitive answer by the end of training camp.

On the defensive side of things, Juuso Valimaki is a strong candidate to make the opening game roster. He scored 14 goals and 45 points in 43 WHL games last season after being taken with the 16th overall pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. He’s looked good in the preseason to push himself into this favorable position as we approach the deadline for the Flames to submit their roster. Dillon Dube has probably done enough to make the Flames as well. He’s been busy in the preseason with four goals and six points in six games. Dube, 20, had 38 goals and 84 points in 53 WHL contests.

Edmonton Oilers

Ty Rattie

Ty Rattie has 19 points in 49 career NHL games. In the 2018 preseason he’s scored seven goals and 11 points in four contests. That’s pretty crazy, but Oilers fans probably remember another player that excelled in exhibition games only to fizzle out just a year back. Kailer Yamamoto had five goals and seven points in six preseason games in 2017, which isn’t quite at Rattie’s level, but it was still exciting to see coming from a player that just turned 19-years-old and wasn’t expected to be NHL-ready yet. When it came to the regular season though, Yamamoto had three assists in nine games before being returned to the WHL.

There’s another similarity between them too. While Yamamoto didn’t consistently play alongside Connor McDavid, the superstar was Yamamoto’s most common linemate. Similarly, Rattie is now projected to play alongside McDavid and much of his recent production can be attributed to who he’s sharing the ice with. There’re differences too though. While Rattie doesn’t have an extensive NHL resume, the 25-year-old is certainly significantly more experienced and was already expected to make the team. More importantly though is the position each player is in. Plus, the Rattie experiment with McDavid has been going on longer than just the preseason. In Rattie’s 14 games with Edmonton in 2017-18, he spent a large majority of his 5-on-5 ice time alongside McDavid and Rattie recorded five goals and nine points as a result.

So, there is some reason to believe that the Rattie-McDavid experiment has staying power and while we’re not expecting anything like the superstar numbers we’ve seen out of Rattie in the preseason to continue, he should be a pretty solid contributor if he stays on that top line.

On a less upbeat note, Mikko Koskinen, who is slated to be the Edmonton Oilers’ backup goaltender after excelling in the KHL, has been a mixed bag in the preseason. That created some speculation that Al Montoya would earn the job over Koskinen, but ultimately Montoya was put on waivers while Koskinen is still with the team. It’s not too surprising of an outcome. Edmonton made a $2.5 million commitment to Koskinen, so they’re not going to change course before a single regular season game has even been played.

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings didn’t make a lot of changes over the summer, but they did make one big move by signing Ilya Kovalchuk. He’s perhaps this season’s biggest X-Factor because he was one of the league’s best snipers when he left, but we’ll have to see what he’s like at the age of 35 and after five seasons in the KHL. For what little it’s worth, Kovalchuk has a goal and an assist in three preseason games.

There was talk of him rounding out the first line of Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown, but that experiment didn’t last. Instead, it looks like the 2017-18 line of Kopitar, Brown, and Alex Iafallo will remain intact while Kovalchuk will play on the second line with Jeff Carter and Adrian Kempe.

As far as the bubble players go, it looks like Jaret Anderson-Dolan has managed to earn a spot on the squad. That’s pretty impressive for the 19-year-old whose pro career only consists of five AHL games thus far, but the reason why he’s being called a bubble player is because he will likely serve on the fourth line and might even end up as a healthy scratch on occasion. Also, even if he makes the team it could just be a temporary arrangement. He’s on an entry-level contract, so the nine-game trial rule applies, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he ends up back in the WHL before he gets to log that 10th game with Los Angeles.

San Jose Sharks

The big story for the San Jose Sharks is obvious: They acquired Erik Karlsson from the Ottawa Senators. With that move, San Jose arguably now features the top two best offensive defensemen in the league between Karlsson and Brent Burns.

That duo are expected to play together on the top power-play unit, but not on even strength. Instead, it looks like Karlsson will play with Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who is another amazing defenseman and while he’s not an elite offensive force, he’s no slouch in that regard either. Vlasic and Karlsson might prove to be the best pairing of the 2018-19 campaign. What about Burns? Joakim Ryan will probably be his partner. Ryan was Burns’ most common even-strength partner last season too, so there’s no real surprise there. That would leave them with a third pairing of Brenden Dillon and Justin Braun.

In terms of forwards, Antti Suomela has been a standout in training camp and it seems like he’s done enough to make the team. You can pencil him in as the third-line center at this point, perhaps alongside Joonas Donskoi and Kevin Labanc. Joe Thornton is also good to play after missing the second half of 2017-18 with a knee injury. Because of the injury, he’s only now getting a chance to play alongside trade deadline acquisition Evander Kane. They’re likely to be on the top line together with Joe Pavelski.

Vancouver Canucks

VANCOUVER, BC - SEPTEMBER 20: Vancouver Canucks centre Elias Pettersson (40) skates against the Los Angeles Kings in a NHL hockey game on September 20, 2018, at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, BC. (Photo by Bob Frid/Icon Sportswire)

In 2017-18, Brock Boeser established himself as the face of the Vancouver Canucks’ rebuild, but he’s about to get some company. Elias Pettersson is aiming to break into the NHL directly from the Swedish league and so far, it’s looking like he’ll do just that. Every rookie comes with a degree of risk, but at least going into the season it’s reasonable to view Pettersson as a potential contender for the Calder Trophy, just as Boeser was last season.

Another very promising forward prospect, Adam Gaudette, has been sent to AHL Utica though after getting a long look in training camp. He dominated with Northeastern University last season, recording 60 points in 38 contests and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him get called up at some point in 2018-19.

Defenseman Olli Juolevi will begin the season in the AHL as well. He spent the 2017-18 campaign in SM-liiga, but he also played in the OHL for two seasons, so he does have some experience in North America. Probably the bigger issue with Juolevi is that he underwent back surgery over the summer and consequently couldn’t start training until the middle of August, so it’s not surprising that he couldn’t force his way onto the lineup this time. In the long run though, he could be a significant part of the Canucks’ blueline.

Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas has been nothing if not eventful over the last month. The first big story to break was a rather unpleasant one as Nate Schmidt received a 20-game suspension for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA's Performance Enhancing Substances Program. Schmidt’s agent did assert that his client’s actions were unintentional, but regardless of the circumstances, the bottom line is a defenseman who recorded 36 points and averaged 22:14 minutes last season will miss the first quarter of the campaign.

That naturally left the Golden Knights with an opening on defense. It did look like Erik Brannstrom might make the team as a result, but the 19-year-old will instead start the season in the AHL. That’s probably not a bad idea given that this is his first campaign in North America after coming over from Sweden. Instead, it looks like Jake Bischoff got the final spot on the Golden Knights’ blueline. He’s 24-years-old and had seven goals and 23 points in 69 AHL contests last season.

The next major event was Vegas acquiring Max Pacioretty from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for Tomas Tatar, Nick Suzuki and a 2019 second round pick. Vegas gave up quite a bit to get Tatar from Detroit at the trade deadline, but he never really found a spot with the Golden Knights, so it’s not surprising to see him be dealt again, even if it arguably is at a significant loss compared to what Vegas paid. As for Suzuki, he’s a great prospect, but wouldn’t have been a factor this season, so at least in the near-term, this trade represents a big boost for Vegas.

Pacioretty and the summer signing of Paul Stastny gives the Golden Knights the makings of a really strong second line. The third member of that unit is up for debate, but Erik Haula and Alex Tuch appear to be the finalists for that gig.

Finally, RFA Shea Theodore agreed to a seven-year, $36.4 million contract on Sept. 25. He did miss part of training camp, but at least he signed with enough time to get back into the swing of things before the regular season starts. Having him on board is also particularly important right now given the absence of Schmidt and given that his cap hit looks pretty reasonable, this was a nice signing for Vegas.

Under the Radar Fantasy All-Star Team

Scott Cullen — Mon, 17 Sep 2018 19:29:20 +0000

The name of the game, when it comes to fantasy hockey, is to derive the best possible value from your draft picks.

Value can come in many forms. Maybe it’s just getting the expected performance out of a blue-chip player, and at the end of the year you can say thank you to Connor McDavid or Sidney Crosby for being great. It can also be about getting a player with no expectations that turns out to be productive enough to contribute to your squad’s fantasy success.

As billionaire investor Warren Buffett said, “The price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

That means that every round, when you make your pick, that is the price you pay for that given player. The way to extract relative value on draft day, though, is to get players that will perform better than their draft slot.

There are a number of reasons why a player might be a good candidate to provide favourable value, maybe the most notable of which is that they are coming off a season of poor percentages, either related to their own shooting percentage or their 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage (which measures the finishing ability of their linemates). If either of those percentages were well off a skater’s career norms, then there is a pretty good chance that those numbers will bounce back, leading to better goal and point production in the following season.

Another factor to consider when it comes to value is perception. If a player has a high profile and receives lots of publicity, it’s going to be more difficult to sneak that pick past anyone. To that end, once players start showing up on every value picks list, they may already start to lose some of their potential value because they are no longer sitting quite so far under the radar.

Nevertheless, here are some players to consider as value plays on draft day, including some high-end players who might be even better their reputations and working down to some late-round sleeper candidates.

FORWARDS

Brad Marchand

Brad Marchand, Boston – This isn’t to suggest that you won’t have to invest a high pick in the Boston super-pest, but he will be worth it. Over the past three seasons, Marchand has scored 110 goals, ranking behind only Alex Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko. Over the past two seasons, thanks to an increased role on the Boston power play, Marchand has 170 points, which is tied for fourth in the league. He’s a vital cog on the league’s best line, with Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, so don’t be afraid of paying retail prices for Marchand’s production.

Tyler Seguin, Dallas – Over the past five seasons he’s tied for sixth in the league in points (384) and only Alex Ovechkin has scored more goals than Seguin’s 173. He scored a career-high 40 goals last season while playing a career-high 20:55 per game, and while a new coach may not give him all of that ice time (though he might), it’s also entirely possible that Jim Montgomery will have the Stars playing a more up-tempo pace than they did under Ken Hitchcock.

Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis – By no means is it guaranteed that O’Reilly will find himself centering super sniper Vladimir Tarasenko, but it would seem to be a good fit since O’Reilly is both a defensive stalwart, a strong playmaker, and he’s coming off a season in which he finished with 61 points, the second highest total of his career, even though he had a career-low on-ice shooting percentage of 6.0%. Playing with an elite talent like Tarasenko could bring out his best.

Sam Reinhart, Buffalo – Even though second overall pick in the 2014 Draft finished with a career-high 50 points last season, Reinhart started the year with just 11 points in his first 38 games and he had an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.9% for the whole season. If he carries his second half production into a full year, with an improved Sabres team, the 22-year-old’s numbers should keep climbing.

Travis Konecny, Philadelphia – After Christmas, the 21-year-old winger scored 20 goals and 37 points in 45 games, performing at high level down the stretch while skating with Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier on Philadelphia’s top line. He also finished second on the team with 2.26 points/60 during 5-on-5 play, scoring 44 of his 47 points at even strength.

Nino Niederreiter, Minnesota – A power forward possession beast who managed 32 points in an injury-plagued 2017-2018 season, Niederreiter had a career-high 57 points in 2016-2017. Coming off that down season, he should cost less to acquire, but that leads to a potential value gain if he gets back on track.

Alex Galchenyuk

Alex Galchenyuk, Arizona – A fresh start with a team that might offer more opportunity is a good reason to have higher hopes for Galchenyuk, because there is an argument to be made that he was not handled particularly well in Montreal, but it’s also worth noting that any scoring forward who had a 5.1% on-ice shooting percentage last season is likely to see more favourable percentages in the next season.

Jonathan Drouin, Montreal – His first season with the Canadiens didn’t necessarily go as planned, and it’s fair to wonder whether Drouin is going to make it long-term as a centre, but the percentages weren’t on his side either, as he scored on 7.9% of his shots and had a 5.6% on-ice shooting percentage. The third pick in the 2013 Draft had a good finish last season, scoring 13 points in his last 14 games and, given his prominent role on the team, Drouin will have every opportunity to produce offensively.

Pavel Buchnevich, N.Y. Rangers – A new coaching staff and a team committed to rebuilding could present more consistent top-six opportunities for the talented 23-year-old winger, who had a respectable 43 points last season, but managed just one goal in his last 22 games and that could help make him somewhat easier to acquire on draft day.

Ondrej Kase, Anaheim – The 22-year-old winger flashed some potential in 2016-2017 and tallied 20 goals and 38 points in 66 games last season, when he led Ducks regulars in goals, points and primary points per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. He has spent quite a bit of time alongside Ryan Getzlaf on the top line, and that makes life easier for any scoring winger.

Alex Tuch, Vegas – James Neal’s departure has opened up a second-line spot for Tuch, who showed a lot of potential as a rookie, and that second-line opening comes with the benefit of a chance to skate alongside veteran playmaking centre Paul Stastny. That’s a good set up for Tuch, who offers a rare combination of size and speed, to build on last season’s production.

Jack Roslovic, Winnipeg – With Paul Stastny leaving, there is a great opportunity for the second-year centre to step into a role on a scoring line. If it turns out that Roslovic is a plug-and-play replacement for Stastny between Nikolaj Ehlers and Patrik Laine, well, that’s the dream scenario that makes it worth grabbing Roslovic and hoping that he is ready to handle that responsibility.

Andre Burakovsky, Washington – Four years into his NHL career, we’re still waiting on a breakout season, but the 23-year-old’s goal and points per 60 numbers are among the best on the Capitals. It’s worth grabbing him late if only to find out what might happen if he plays at least 65 games, something that he’s done once in four years.

Austin Czarnik, Calgary – A 25-year-old who has 17 points in 59 career NHL games is likely to be available for a late-round flier, and Czarnik is worth consideration at that price because he has tallied 155 points in 157 American Hockey League games and joins a Flames team that offers an opportunity to play significant minutes. After Yanni Gourde’s success in Tampa Bay last season, Czarnik is a player with a similar pedigree as a minor-league scorer, looking for his chance to shine in the NHL.

DEFENCE

Brent Burns

Brent Burns, San Jose – You won’t get him cheaply, but the 33-year-old freewheeling blueliner still offers massive value at a relatively early draft slot. Even though he managed 12 goals last season, Burns scored on just 3.6% of his shots, his lowest rate since 2009-2010, and his on-ice shooting percentage (6.2%) was his lowest in the advanced stats era (ie. since 2007-2008). Over the past three seasons, Burns leads all defencemen in goals (68), points (218) and, by a mile, shots on goal (1005).

Oscar Klefbom, Edmonton – He plummeted from a dozen goals and 38 points in 2016-2017 to just five goals and 21 points last season, but Klefbom was limited by a bad shoulder that ultimately ended his season early. A healthy Klefbom remains the best power-play quarterback on the Edmonton blueline and, provided that he’s not hindered by the shoulder issue, Klefbom should be in line for a rebound season.

Thomas Chabot, Ottawa – The 2015 first-round pick was kept under wraps early in his rookie season, but started to play a lot more in the second half of the season and he performed well. As it was, he still finished with 25 points in 63 games, so those numbers could shoot up if he starts playing 20-minutes plus every night for a full season.

Duncan Keith

Duncan Keith, Chicago – To be fair, no one is going to consider Keith a genuine sleeper. Everyone is well aware of a 34-year-old who has won two Norris Trophies and been a No. 1 defenceman on three Stanley Cup winners, but he’s coming off an especially poor year. Part of how those poor results were achieved, though, was through abysmal percentages. He scored two goals on 187 shots (1.1 SH%) and his 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage (5.7%) was a career-low, too. If absolutely nothing else changes and the percentages move back towards his career norms, Keith’s results will be noticeably better.

Kevin Shattenkirk, N.Y. Rangers – A prize free agent signing in the summer of 2017, the veteran blueliner missed nearly half of the season due to injury, but remains one of the best power play quarterbacks in the game. Even on a rebuilding Rangers team there will be points to be had with the man advantage.

Samuel Girard, Colorado – The heady, smallish, puck-moving blueliner scored more than half of his points on the power play during his rookie campaign, earning a bigger role as the season progressed, and the 20-year-old should continue his upward career trajectory in his second season.

GOALTENDERS

Braden Holtby, Washington – Last season was clearly the worst of Holtby’s career, and he even lost the starting job going down the stretch and into the playoffs, so of course that was the season in which he backstopped the Capitals to the Stanley Cup. Given his impressive track record, though, it’s still worth investing in Holtby as a star goaltender. With Philipp Grubauer moving on, Holtby’s hold on the No. 1 job should be even more secure.

Antti Raanta

Antti Raanta, Arizona – He doesn’t have the reputation of other starting goaltenders, in part because last season was the first time that he played more than 40 games in a season, and injuries still limited him to 47 appearances. Raanta is also playing behind a Coyotes team that wants to be more competitive, but they haven’t made the playoffs since 2012 and have surpassed 80 points once since then. Even with those factors taken into account, Raanta was outstanding when healthy last year and has a .927 save percentage in 116 games over the past four seasons. The 29-year-old does not have the track record to be considered an elite netminder, but once they’re off the board, Raanta could bring nice value.

Linus Ullmark, Buffalo – The 25-year-old netminder is coming off a strong AHL campaign, during which he posted a .922 save percentage in 44 games, and while veteran Carter Hutton appears to have a leg up in the Sabres’ goaltending competition, Ullmark has potential to emerge as Buffalo’s number one option between the pipes.

Pacific Coast – Anaheim Ducks 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:36:01 +0000

Review/State of Play - Finished with their fifth straight 100 point season getting swept in the first round by San Jose after making it to the conference finals two out of the three previous years. It was an impressive achievement given injuries would plague their veteran players with Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, Corey Perry and Cam Fowler all missing meaningful time. They represent $30.25 million in cap space and a significant factor in any further success this season. There have been some promising young pieces emerging, but the window is closing on this forward group.

GM Bob Murray largely stood pat over the summer except for minor depth additions, despite professing the need to become a faster team. Faithful to coach Randy Carlyle, often the target of criticism for a throw back style of coaching that doesn’t seem to fit the offseason narrative of Murray. In the bottom of the third of the league in CF% with 48.62, he may succeed in getting the club into the postseason, but are they built to succeed, particularly when other strong teams have added significant pieces to challenge?

Anaheim Ducks center Rickard Rakell (67)

Growing internally – There were some encouraging signs of internal growth of younger players. Rickard Rakell definitively established that last season’s breakout was real and hit new highs in goals (36) and points (69) to lead the team in scoring, after Getzlaf had the honor for the prior six seasons. He finished 10^th in the league in 5v5 goals with 22. He tied for third last season with 26 and is behind only Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews over the two seasons combined. He led the team in scoring with eight goals on an anemic Anaheim power play (tied for second last in power play goals scored).

The emergence of young defenders 26-year-old Josh Manson and 24-year old rookie Brandon Montaur as impactful regulars was key last season. Manson led the backend in scoring with 37 points, all but one of them coming at even strength. He also anchors the shutdown pairing alongside 24-year-old Hampus Lindholm and led the team in shorthanded time on ice. Montour produced 32 points and played over twenty minutes a game leading the team in power play time on ice and points (18). They form one of the strongest core of young defenders in the league when including 26-year-old Cam Fowler.

The biggest development last season came from 24-year old goaltender John Gibson. He turned in an outstanding season and was one of the best keepers in the league from January on posting the leagues second best save percentage (0.937) and third in GAA (1.95) for goalies who played 10 games or more – he was first among tenders who had played 20 games. He was instrumental in keeping the franchise playoff bound and among the top ten teams in the league.

The spectre of age and injury loom - Corey Perry is drawing a cap hit of $8.625 million and at 33 years of age his 30 goal seasons appear to be over after not achieving 20 in the past two seasons. A rebound may be a reach, and his contract remains an albatross with a no trade clause. Ryan Kesler, also 33 years old, had a tough season after hip surgery and a December debut. He did not seem to get back to form entirely by seasons end and there are reports he is in intensive rehab and talk of missing the season entirely. Patrick Eaves missed all but two games last season and whether he can contribute at his past level remains to be seen.

Adam Henrique at 28-years-old added some depth up the middle after being acquired for Sami Vatanen and scored 20 goals for the Ducks in the final 57 games. He brings speed, work ethic and good hockey sense entering his prime. He rounds out a solid experienced group up front. They signed 30-year-old Brian Gibbons on a one year contract in the offseason - having previously played and showed chemistry with Adam Henrique.

Outlook - They enter this season with a similar line up to last season but did add experience and depth on the back end in Andrej Sustr and Luke Schenn, both on low cost one-year contracts ($1.3 million and $800,000 respectively). They replace veteran Francois Beauchemin.

Third in the league in goals against with an improved defense and three solid lines up front when healthy the Ducks have some factors in their favour for another appearance in the playoffs. A sweep in the playoffs exposed their lack of speed and could not produce offense when called upon.

They have made no significant improvements to a weak offense that is reliant on an aging superstar. The power play in desperate need of help did not receive any. The are placing their hopes that a healthy Eakins and Kesler along with general good health amongst the veterans along with an emerging young group will carry them further. A strategy that should see a further, if slow, decline this season.

SITTING DUCKS – 2017-18 Yearbook

McKeen's Hockey — Wed, 13 Sep 2017 14:05:10 +0000

Anaheim Ducks center Rickard Rakell (67). (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Review/State of Play - The Anaheim Ducks made it to Western Conference final for the second time in three years. After five straight division titles it is an organization that feels it is close to the ultimate Stanley Cup goal and largely stood pat in the off-season. Randy Carlyle was rewarded for his success with a contract extension.

There were no major departures from the line-up that finished the season with 105 points (46-23-13) and won their division. Trade rumours and speculation swirled much of the season around their enviable group of young defensemen in Cam Fowler (25), Sami Vatanen (26), Hampus Lindholm (23), and Josh Manson (25) or who they would have to expose or in the expansion draft or trade. Instead GM Bob Murray made a deal with Vegas sending prospect Shea Theodore in exchange for them drafting Clayton Stoner and his $3.25 million dollar cap hit freeing up cap space. The rise of prospect Brandon Montour on the horizon helped facilitate the move.

Anaheim Ducks rightwing Patrick Eaves (18)(Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

Right up against the cap that relief was welcome and allowed them to sign Patrik Eaves for three years at 3.15 million. He was acquired prior to the trade deadline from Dallas, ostensibly as a rental but clicked effectively with Ryan Getzlaf and Rickard Rakell firing seven goals at even strength in 20 games (11 total) before being shut down with a high ankle sprain and only appearing in seven playoff games.

Standing pat behind vets Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler - Ryan Getzlaf was quite simply a beast this season and took it to another level in the playoffs. A continuing attempt to separate Perry and Getzlaf is ongoing to provide matchup headaches for other teams. It would give them three strong lines as they own one of the best two way lines in the league in Andrew Cogliano, Ryan Kesler and Jakob Silfverberg. Kesler is an elite face-off man and a defensive specialist. A competitor that will get up the nose of opponents.

Corey Perry had a down season offensively with a paltry 19 goals, but shot at 8.8% while averaging over 15% in shooting percentage the last three seasons and owning a career 13.2%. At his career rate he would have scored 28 and had a shot at a fourth season over 30 goals. There is talk he played through an injury but it has not been confirmed.

Kesler and Getzlaf are 33 and 32 years old, respectively, but showing no signs of slowing down and will be a threat next season. Perry, also 32, should rebound, but snipers tend to fade faster as they get older. In projecting the 2017-18 season you need to take in the urgency factor. This is a confident team that knows what it wants and age will not be a factor among the leadership group for the coming season, injury concerns aside.

The emergence of 24-year old Richard Rakell with a surprising 33 goals (albeit on a 18.6% shooting percentage), along with a second 20 goal season from 26-year old Jakob Silfverberg, were important stories in providing scoring balance. Silfverberg has distinguished himself as a playoff warrior contributing 37 points in 40 playoff games over the last three seasons.

If 21-year old power winger with a goal scoring touch Nick Ritchie can make a similar transformation in his third NHL season, he adds another weapon down the lineup. He contributed 14 in his sophomore campaign so another 20 goal scorer would give the Ducks more than adequate attack over three lines

Gibson’s time - They also added veteran goaltender Ryan Miller to provide some relief for John Gibson and as an insurance policy in case of injury. The 37-year old veteran appeared in 54 games last season and represents an upgrade from Jonathan Bernier. If the 24-year old falters in his fourth NHL season, 16 -17 being his first as the starter, the vet will ready to take a heavier load. Gibson has flashed signs of being a dominant goalie and emerging as the starter this season would go a long way to sealing the deal in Anaheim.

If goaltending is successful, and the forward group delivers, they also ice one of the best young defense groups in the league. They are all responsible defensively, and mobile with some offensive chops. Both Vatanen and Lindholm suffered off-season shoulder injuries so monitor their recovery through training camp.

Outlook: Injuries and the endurance of their veterans are the only questions that will stop them from contending for their division title again and reaching for the Stanley Cup.

NHL Prospect Watch: Anaheim Ducks

Ryan Wagman — Mon, 21 Mar 2016 16:35:30 +0000

Anaheim Ducks' fans are among the biggest beneficiaries of the AHL’s decision to open up a Pacific division to house the affiliates of the West Coast-based NHL teams. Perhaps not as fortunate as Sharks' fans, whose up-and-comers get to play in the same arena, nevertheless the Ducks’ affiliate, based in San Diego, is only 90 minutes away in ideal traffic conditions. Maybe three hours in regular Southern California traffic.

Beyond proximity, the new Gulls' franchise has also seen many of the most highly touted Ducks' prospects suit up for their fans this season, among them former first rounders' Nick Ritchie and Shea Theodore, as well as others of intrigue such as Nicolas Kerdiles, Stefan Noesen and Brandon Montour.

With help from Hockey Prospectus author Jason Lewis (@SirJDL on twitter), we will review here a few of the more impressive Gulls this season as well as a few more who might be Gulls in the year or two to come.

The highest profile prospect to suit up for the AHL affiliate was winger Nick Ritchie. A former 10^th overall choice in 2014, Ritchie sticks out for his size and stickhandling abilities. Listed at a burly 6-2”, 232, he utilizes every pound on his frame on the ice. He relishes playing in the difficult areas of the ice and knows how to use his strength to his advantage to win board battles for the puck. He fits the Western Conference profile of a forward who can play dirty, play down low and score. While his initial NHL experience has been trying, with only one goal and one assist in his first 26 games, he fared much better in the AHL, with 28 points in 33 games, excellent numbers for a first year pro who only turned 20 two months into the season. Ritchie is a mule on the puck, very hard to dispossess him when he has it along the boards or down low and has a quick shot release, which will help him score with regularity from scrums near the crease going forward. His skating is still a work in progress, as he is not slow, but lacks much wow factor in terms of acceleration.

Considering the limited minutes he has received in the AHL, averaging under 12 minutes TOI per game, his development would have been better served with more time away from the spotlight in San Diego. On the other hand, in spite of his lack of offensive production, his possession figures have been strong in protected shifts and he has been a willing crasher and banger. Further, with the Ducks strong second half play, Ritchie has gained valuable experience – and will gain even more in the postseason – that will come in handy as he works his way up the depth chart in the coming year or two. The premature NHL time may delay his ascent to a top six role, but that is still his expected destination in the near future.

Just as high end as Ritchie on the Gulls roster this year has been two way blueliner Shea Theodore, also a first year pro. Theodore spent more of his with San Diego, getting only 13 NHL games as of this writing. Ironically, he produced three times as many points as his aforementioned teammate in half the games. His possession numbers were also stellar, without the benefit of protection. Whereas Ritchie excels in the power game, Theodore’s skill set lends itself far more to finesse and smoothness. For a team that is already stacked at the NHL level with young and mobile defenders along the caliber of Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindhold and Sami Vatanen, having Theodore waiting in the wings is almost unfair. The former Seattle Thunderbird is a fantastic skater in either direction and is a veritable weapon from the point, equally comfortable winding up for the slap shot, releasing a quicker wrister or passing to a better positioned teammate.

He sees the ice well and does a good job carrying the mail up the ice, or distributing the puck when more appropriate. While not known for his defensive game, he does not lack in that area either. He will never be a pure shut down defender, but his positional sense, willingness to sell out to prevent an opposition play and general ability to clear the zone should be sufficient to see him as part of a second unit, if not paired up with a more traditional defensive-minded partner on the first pairing. The biggest hurdle left for Theodore to climb is the presence of his aforementioned teammates. There were rumors earlier this year that the Ducks may be shopping one or both of Vatanen and Fowler. Without trading at least one of those – most likely Vatanen, a pending RFA – there will be no role for Theodore to take. The British Columbia native will be ready for a full time position in the NHL to start next season. While a few more months in the AHL would not hurt him, he is not far from being in a position of extracting diminishing returns with additional seasoning.

Theodore’s equal as an offensive blueliner is his current Gulls teammate Brandon Montour. A former second round pick, Montour went from scoring a point per game in the USHL to nearly matching that feat in the AHL in the space of two years. Put simply, he is an offensive dynamo. He is a well above average skater with great hands. He will always support the rush and more often than not, will actively participate in it as well. He has an excellent point shot and uses it judiciously, as he knows how to get it through traffic without being blocked.

As good as Montour is when the Gulls have the puck, he is equally as dangerous without it. Very eager to get the puck back, he will make many, many poorly thought out risky decisions, leaving his team in an awkward situation as he recovers from losing position. As fast as he is, very few defenders can recover in time from the positions he finds himself in due to over exuberance. His physical game is also lacking, making him a net negative in his own end. Assuming the Gulls can recover the puck, he finds himself useful once more at orchestrating the outlet, but does not do enough to assist in the process of regaining possession. In spite of his awesome offensive production in the AHL in his first full season as a professional, there is a good reason for his not being given a call up this season. Even as the game evolves, and teams are more likely to choose skill over brawn, there is still little patience for risk, unless even when overwhelmed by reward. See the trials and tribulations faced by Norris winner PK Subban in Montreal for a prominent example. Not that Montour is another Subban, but rather he is much riskier from a defensive perspective, meaning he is less likely to earn the trust needed to get the ice time and prime power play opportunities that Subban does. Assuming he continues to work in his defensive play, Montour could emerge as a powerplay specialist type who is limited to a 4/5 role at even strength. If he doesn’t, T.J. Brennan is the template. Another year in the AHL is a near inevitability.

While not as exciting as the three previously featured prospects, San Diego had a trio of other forwards of note suit up there this year with decent likelihoods of NHL careers ahead of them. Former second rounder Nicolas Kerdiles. Now in his second pro season, Kerdiles does not stand out in any one facet of his game, but neither does he have any glaring weaknesses. An intelligent and versatile forward who can play center or on the wing, he has moderate offensive ability to go along with shutdown center qualities. Frequently used to kill penalties, he has increased his offensive production in his second year in the AHL. It is hard to see a future wherein he scores much more than 30 points per season in the NHL, but that is solid work for a bottom six forward who contributes in his own end. Kerdiles should be ready for an extended NHL trial next season.

Also worth mentioning is Michael Sgarbossa, who came over from Colorado in a minor trade last March. Originally signed as an undrafted free agent out of the OHL’s Saginaw program by San Jose, he has proven himself to be a strong AHL producer over four pro seasons. His puck skills are solid, but not good enough to be a carrying tool if that was all he could bring to the table. Thankfully, he also has a knack for finding seams in coverage, making strong passes and is responsible enough to be used to kill penalties as well. He may be a tweener, in the sense that his skill set is not clearly strong enough for a top nine NHL role, but can sometimes look like the best player on the ice in the AHL. Nevertheless, a pending RFA, he has earned a longer NHL look than the nine games across two seasons he has so far received.

The last player I was to discuss from the San Diego squad is Czech winger Ondrej Kase. The former seventh rounder is an exciting player with good wheels and solid puck skills, but this year is unfortunately a wash for him in his first season since coming over from Europe. Having returned in the past two weeks, he is already showing why he might soon be regarded as a draft steal. Nonetheless, the down time this season can only be seen as a major disappointment.

A talented player in a similar situation to Kase is NCAA forward Kevin Roy. Undersized at 5-9”, the former fourth rounder has scored at over one point per game throughout his four year stay in the collegiate ranks. In looks last season, Roy showed himself to be a skilled playmaker who plays with a very high panic threshold, allowing him to take positional risks offensively than less brave players would not. Injuries greatly hampered his play this year, but he is now healthy and will look to try to lift a decent Northeastern squad into the NCAA tournament before considering a likely contract offer from the Ducks.

Another collegian who should be on the receiving end of a contract offer shortly is Minnesota-Duluth captain Andy Welinski. Not a standout in any part of the game, he has been a solid NCAA blueliner, proficient in his own zone with strong gap control and a good enough shot from the point that will not look out of place in the AHL. His offensive production was decent for UMD, but never really improved after a solid freshman season. The lack of progress may limit the Ducks offer to an AHL contract only, but the floor of his ability is high enough to warrant at least that, if not more.

Looking to Europe, I received a strong report from Hockey Prospectus contributor Miika Arponen on Finnish winger Miro Aaltonen who compared him to Jere Lehtinen in style. A complete player with a strong own zone game, there have been unconfirmed rumors that the former seventh rounder could make his way to North America in the offseason after three and a half good season in Liiga.

Finally, a few words about the Ducks 2015 first rounder, Swedish defenseman Jacob Larsson. In the midst of a strong rookie season in the SHL, Larsson took some time out to represent his country at the WJC. Another highly mobile defenseman in the Anaheim pipeline, Larsson can absolutely fly when he sees a lane through the zone. He has a high panic threshold and will not rush a shot or pass due to pressure. I would like to see his awareness improve, but playing a full season in a men’s league at age 18 is impressive. His size is also a point in his favor and he has demonstrated that he can be tough to play against in the corners. There is still plenty of room for growth, but he is starting at a very good spot.