Pheonix Copley – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – LOS ANGELES KINGS – Team Preview

Tue, 17 Sep 2024 20:00:26 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 04: Los Angeles Kings right wing Quinton Byfield (55) skates during an NHL hockey game against the Detroit Red Wings on January 4, 2024 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)

The 2023-24 campaign was another season of solid, but not remarkable hockey for the Kings. They posted a 44-27-11 record on the strength of strong goaltending by Cam Talbot and David Rittich coupled with elite defensive work -- Los Angeles ranked sixth with a 2.82 xGA/60. However, the Kings’ offence was mediocre. Trevor Moore was the only member of the squad with over 30 goals, and even then, just barely (31). It also didn’t help that Pierre-Luc Dubois, who the Kings acquired in the summer of 2023 and made a massive eight-year, $68 million commitment to, proved to be underwhelming in Los Angeles (16 goals, 40 points). The Kings still made the playoffs, but they were then ousted in the first round for the third consecutive year.

WHAT’S CHANGED? The Kings abandoned the Dubois experiment, trading him to Washington for 34-year-old goaltender Darcy Kuemper, who struggled in 2023-24 with a 3.31 GAA and an .890 save percentage in 33 outings. Still, LA needed a goaltender because Talbot walked as an unrestricted free agent. The Kings also lost defenceman Matt Roy and forward Viktor Arvidsson to the free-agent market. On the plus side, the Kings signed middle-six forward Warren Foegele and acquired physical blueliner Kyle Burroughs from San Jose in exchange for fourth-liner Carl Grundstrom.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? At this point, LA needs to win a playoff round to be successful. The Kings figure to have an acceptable, but not exceptional offence, but weirdly it was goaltending that was the problem in the Kings’ first-round exit to Edmonton. For as good as Talbot and Rittich were in the regular season, they weren’t up to the task of stopping a world-class attack like the Oilers with the pressure on. Perhaps Kuemper will fare better. It’s true that the veteran goaltender is coming off a poor season, but the Kings’ excellent defence makes a comeback somewhat more likely, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that Kuemper won the Cup with Colorado in 2022.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Kuemper isn’t the only Cup-winner on the Kings, of course, which brings us to one weird thing about this squad: the modern Kings are still dependent on two stars from Los Angeles’ glory days: Anze Kopitar, who is now 37, and Drew Doughty, who will turn 35 in December. The Kings made that big bet on Dubois in the first place because they were shopping for something of a Kopitar successor. That didn’t work out, which only increases Kopitar’s importance, even as he ages. Similarly, Doughty brings so much to the table that any decline on his part would be a big blow to LA. All of this could lead to the Kings regressing compared to 2023-24.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: The Kings don’t have another Doughty in their prospect pool, but they do have Brandt Clarke. While Clarke isn’t likely to match Doughty’s defensive capabilities, the 21-year-old has the potential to someday eclipse the veteran’s offensive heights. Clarke was outstanding in the AHL last season, providing 10 goals and 46 points in 50 regular-season contests. He also had six points (two goals) across 16 outings with LA despite averaging just 13:39 of ice time. He might be a mainstay of LA’s defence this year and serve on the second power-play unit.

Forwards

Anze Kopitar

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	23	41	64	0.80

It’s not easy being north of 35 years old in the NHL, but Anze Kopitar is making it look good ahead as he turns 37 headed into a new season. He posted 26 goals and 44 assists (70 points) in 81 games to rank third on the Kings, just five points behind team leader Adrian Kempe. Kopitar is the picture of consistent greatness. He continues to be an elite defensive forward as a two-time Selke Trophy winner (2016 and 2018) and he finished fifth in the vote last season. His offensive production is the kind of thing you can set a clock to. In 15 of his 18 seasons in the league he’s had 60-or-more points and two of those seasons were truncated (2012 lockout, the post-pandemic 2021 season). He’s a triple threat player in that he can beat you at five-on-five, on the power play or on the penalty kill. Given he’s on their top unit on both the man advantage and the kill, he’s virtually inescapable on the ice. Kopitar is an all-time great and a future Hall of Famer and that he’s continuing to play at this high of a level and playing a vital role in willing the Kings to the playoffs is beyond impressive. The only question now would seem to be how long he can keep it going. Good luck figuring that out because it’s been difficult to find evidence of it coming anytime soon.

Kevin Fiala

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	32	47	79	0.96

In Fiala’s second season with the Kings he continued to prove to fans why he was a great addition to the roster despite losing stud defenceman Brock Faber in the deal with Minnesota. He finished second on the team in points with 73. His 29 goals were second most on the team behind Trevor Moore and his 11 power play tallies were most on the team. Fiala’s offensive output in both goals and points were the second highest marks in his career and putting up 73 points a season after having 72 in 69 games highlighted what makes him a special player up front. The 28-year-old Swiss native has always been an offensive-minded player and that was something the Kings desperately needed in recent years to help Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty. He’s been a seamless fit with the team and found a home with Moore and Philip Danault on the second line. Fiala providing the offensive spark for a line that features two players with strong defensive capabilities like Danault and Moore has helped to further encourage their offensive side. With the change up in the lower six of the forward group leaning into bringing younger players into the mix, having a consistent scorer like Fiala to bank on will allow L.A. to keep other teams honest. You can expect 25 – 30 goals and a point a game pace.

Adrian Kempe

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	35	48	83	1.04

Seeing Adrian Kempe evolve into one of the Kings most dangerous goal scorers the past few seasons has been exciting to watch unfold. Over his first five seasons while he worked to earn more ice time and capitalize on chances, it was difficult to get going with the veterans that held down the lines in front of him. But when he scored 35 goals almost out of nowhere in 2021-2022 his breakout signaled that he was here to stay. That he followed that up with 41 goals the following season set expectations for him sky-high last season. Even though he didn’t match that goal output and put up 28 goals, he set a career-high with 75 points and led the Kings in scoring in the process. The 47 assists he posted were also a career-high and 22 of those came on the power play. Kempe becoming a high-powered offensive weapon was a much-needed development for the team. Their post-Stanley Cup years saw goals dry up and the retirement of Dustin Brown and departure of contributors like Tyler Toffoli and Jeff Carter caused their offence to crater. Kempe’s evolution allowed the Kings to rebound and give Anze Kopitar necessary assistance in producing wins. It goes without saying they’ll need Kempe to keep the points flowing to keep pace the Western Conference.

Quinton Byfield

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	31	40	71	0.87

Kings fans waited patiently to see 2020 No. 2 overall pick Quinton Byfield find his way in the NHL and live up to the expectations set upon him by his draft position. Although it’s taken him a few seasons to find his way out of the AHL and then to acclimate to the pace of play in the NHL, the player everyone has waited to see is here. Last season, Byfield scored 20 goals with 35 assists (55 points) and the spot on the top line with Anze Kopitar he earned two seasons ago began to pay real offensive dividends. At 6-foot-five, 220 pounds along with good speed and skill, he’s a very difficult player to contain whether he has the puck or not. What’s helped make him more difficult to contain is how hard he works along the boards and in corners. With his size and reach it’s hard for opposing players to handle him. Byfield teaming up with Kopitar and Adrian Kempe gave the Kings a line that offered up three players with a wide array of skills. That combination makes it exceedingly tough for opposing teams to matchup with them, even more so now that Byfield has adapted to the NHL and maximized the use of his talents. At 22 years old, he’s just getting started and his future looks bright.

Phillip Danault

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	16	28	44	0.55

Even though Anze Kopitar is renowned for his outstanding two-way play as a great scorer and even better defender, Philip Danault’s game has evolved to the point where he’s cut from the same cloth. Danault has long been a great defensive forward dating back to his time with the Montreal Canadiens and even though his offensive abilities were apparent there, landing with the Kings, he’s flourished averaging more than 50 points per season in L.A. He posted 17 goals and 30 assists last season, his first one with the Kings in which he had fewer than 50 points, but the success his linemates, Trevor Moore (57 points) and Kevin Fiala (73 points), had in generating offence together meant he was doing a lot that didn’t wind up on the score sheet to help facilitate it. Danault’s ability to help control possession and the flow of play through generating more shot attempts than his opponents have been strong throughout his career and that has helped his linemates over the past few years, particularly Moore, to find more offensive success. With Fiala joining that line two seasons ago, it’s now a much more dangerous group to contain and overwhelmingly difficult to get the puck away from. With a skill mix like that, Danault can continue to lean into what makes him so good while also sending his wings up the ice and on their way to the net.

Trevor Moore

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	26	32	58	0.71

Why can’t the Toronto Maple Leafs find guys like Trevor Moore? Turns out they do, but they just trade them elsewhere anyway like they did with Trevor Moore. While Moore couldn’t crack his way into the Leafs lineup years ago, landing in Los Angeles as part of a trade that sent Jack Campbell and Kyle Clifford to Toronto was what he needed to flourish. The Thousand Oaks, California native landed in his hometown and turned into an effective defensive forward that evolved into a two-way threat and goal scoring machine with the Kings last season. Moore scored a career-high 31 goals last season and set a new career-high in points with 57. Out of those 31 goals, 27 of them came at even strength and he also potted two more each on the power play and penalty kill. It’s remarkable to watch Moore become an extremely valuable second line winger in L.A. where he’s teamed up with Philip Danault to provide them with another capable scoring line behind Anze Kopitar’s first line. Moore’s aggressive play and pursuit of pucks allows him to force opponents into mistakes as well as being able to drive and crash the net to create scoring chances. That he plays in all situations highlights his importance to the team and they’ve been rewarded by seeing him evolve into an all-around threat. Now that he’s got confidence to shoot more often, both he and the Kings are reaping the benefits.

Warren Foegele

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	17	24	41	0.50

The Kings were able to replace Viktor Arvidsson, who signed with Edmonton as a free agent, by taking one of the Oilers’ free agents in Warren Foegele to replace him. What’s ironic is their production last season was eerily similar. With the Oilers, in a depth role on the third and fourth lines, Foegele scored 20 goals with 21 assists and averaged just under 14 minutes per game. Getting 20 goals out of someone that’s not playing in a prime offensive role is like getting bonus offence and while Edmonton and Los Angeles don’t play similar styles in any way, Foegele’s history as a 20-to-30-point scorer in his career with Carolina and Edmonton hints what’s a likelier outcome for his production. Foegele cashed in on his career year to net a three-year, $10.5 million deal from the Kings, but if his contract year was a sign of things to come and not an outlier, that deal is a steal. And even if it turns out to be a classic contract year, having a player capable of generating offence like that lower in the lineup helps the Kings’ depth immensely. Since he’ll likely wind up on the third line, they’ll be hoping he can pick up where he left off to give the team a necessary offensive lift in the bottom six.

Tanner Jeannot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	8	13	21	0.28

When the Tampa Bay Lightning gave up a boatload of picks to acquire Tanner Jeannot and then re-signed him to a new deal, the thought was he would build off the big offensive output and physical play he showed in Nashville. That plan didn’t pan out and the Lightning, in sore need of getting their salary cap in order, dealt Jeannot to the Kings for a pair of draft picks. The 24-goal, 41-point season Jeannot posted with the Predators in 2021-2022 is a distant memory at this point, but the Kings acquired him not so much in hopes that maybe he can do it again with them but to be a physical presence in their bottom six and serve as a bit of an enforcer for what will be a relatively young bottom six forward group. Jeannot had seven goals and seven assists with Tampa Bay last season to go along with 75 penalty minutes. His 211 hits were the fewest he’s delivered during his three full NHL seasons, but when you consider he did that in only 55 games, it dictates exactly what he’s going to bring to the Kings lineup. Even though his hit total was tied for 25th most in the league, his 19.15 hits per 60 minutes played was seventh highest in the league among players with 45 or more games played. He may not specifically be an enforcer, but good luck to anyone in the Western Conference eager and willing to challenge him.

Arthur Kaliyev

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
58	12	13	25	0.43

The 23-year-old 2019 second-round pick of the Kings, Arthur Kaliyev, has had a frustrating career to this point in the NHL. Last season, he had the worst season of his three in the NHL with seven goals and eight assists in 51 games, a dramatic drop from the gains he made in the previous two seasons in which he had 27 and 28 points respectively. Kaliyev has been limited to playing fourth line minutes and as an offensively gifted player from his time in junior hockey, playing limited minutes on a line meant to eat tougher defensive assignments doesn’t lend itself to his strengths. What’s even tougher is he hasn’t played in the AHL since 2020-2021. Two seasons ago, he missed nearly two months of action because of injury, which limited him to 55 games. But playing in just 51 games last season in what was a tumultuous season with coach Todd McLellan getting fired and replaced by Jim Hiller is ominous. Kaliyev was a restricted free agent this summer and although the Kings tendered him a qualifying offer, where he fits into their plans moving ahead is unclear. Ideally, he should be playing with more skilled linemates, but that time isn’t easy to come by, especially when the performance doesn’t merit it.

Alex Laferriere

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	14	18	32	0.39

Alex Laferriere made the most of his rookie campaign in the NHL last season. In 81 games he scored 12 goals with 11 assists and played consistently in the Kings bottom six forward group. With stiff competition for ice time and games among that group, the consistency he showed when he played college hockey with Harvard two seasons ago proved to be of great benefit to him to be able to jump right into the NHL. Laferriere averaged just over 13 minutes of ice time per game and played on a line with Pierre-Luc Dubois most of the time (705 minutes together at five-on-five). With Dubois traded to Washington this summer, where Laferriere slots into the lineup and with whom will be interesting to see. He played with a host of other players on the wing last season and none of them really offer any hints, but a spot on the third line would seem most likely because of his two-way ability. Even though Laferriere didn’t play a ton of minutes, he did find some time on the power play and scored two goals on the man advantage. If he can add to his offensive game, a regular spot on the second power play wouldn’t be out of the question. He’s just starting his career, but with how quickly he forced his way into the lineup, we’re likely to see much more from the New Jersey native this season.

DEFENCE

Drew Doughty

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	12	38	50	0.63

It was just a few seasons ago that injuries seemed to conspire to keep Drew Doughty out of the Kings lineup and cast doubt on how much longer he’d be able to play at a top level in the NHL. After the past two seasons and good health, even age isn’t slowing him down. Doughty was the Kings top offensive producer from the blue line with 15 goals and 35 assists, his second straight 50-point season (he had 52 points two years ago). It was the most goals he’s scored in a season since his second season in the league in 2009-2010 and seven of those tallies came on the power play. Doughty has scored 50-or-more points in a season five times in his career and that he’s done it in each of the past two seasons is incredible. This season, he turns 35 years old and as the unquestioned No. 1 defenceman in Los Angeles he’ll be counted on to lead the way on their top pair and top power play unit and their first penalty kill unit as well. Seeing the power in his shots from the blue line, his adept handling of the puck, and the confident swagger in his game again is wonderful to see in action and if he continues to play like this (and stays healthy), the Kings will be a difficult team to deal with in the West.

Michael Anderson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	4	22	26	0.33

What’s allowed the Kings top defence pair to work so well is having true counterparts working together as a unit. While Drew Doughty is the puck-moving, point-producing maven, Michael Anderson is the guy who does the dirty work in minding the defensive zone. Anderson’s excellent positional play and strong physical play at the blue line allows Doughty to have the freedom to play like he once did. While Anderson makes sure to always be the last man back, Doughty has the confidence to be able to jump into plays deeper in the offensive zone. Attacking as a five-man unit can take a few different forms and for the Kings that means Doughty joins the forwards and Anderson allows the rest of them to go for goals. It's not as if Anderson doesn’t get points, it’s just that’s not his priority. In 74 games last season he had two goals and 16 assists. What bears watching is whether his usage will change at all with Matt Roy gone to Washington in free agency. Roy was the top defensive defenceman for them the past few seasons, but with him gone it may be up to Anderson and Vladislav Gavrikov to pick up the slack there. New addition Joel Edmundson figures to be part of that rotation on the penalty kill as well, but his consistency will play a role in how that works.

Vladislav Gavrikov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	4	19	23	0.29

In Vladislav Gavrikov’s first full season with the Kings, he proved why the team made the right move when they traded for him at the deadline two seasons ago. Gavrikov played 77 games and had six goals and 17 assists. His 23 points were the second most he’s had in a season in his five seasons in the NHL. Those are virtually bonus points to get because his role is meant to be a stopper and not a scorer and he proved to be good at that, too. Gavrikov averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game and even though he wasn’t a heavy hitter, he was a key shot blocker with 114 of them, fourth most among defencemen and on the team. At 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, Gavrikov is a strong presence on the ice and his ability to use his size to win board battles and get in front of shots makes him an ideal fit on any team, but he’s also solid with the puck as well and that’s what helps him out with the role he has. Gavrikov’s defence partner last season was Matt Roy and now that he’s gone, who he’ll pair up with is a big question to be answered during training camp. It’s a possibility the lefthanded shot will play in a counterpart role with either Brandt Clarke or Jordan Spence who are quicker, puck-moving right-shot defenders. Adopting that kind of role could mean Gavrikov blocks more shots and perhaps gets more physical as well.

GOAL

Darcy Kuemper

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
65	26	21	7	3	0.906	2.58

Pheonix Copley

The NHL doesn't often see starting goaltenders of note leave a team and head back years later unless they're looking to take a victory lap before retirement. That makes the two-year deal signed by Darcy Kuemper to rejoin the Los Angeles Kings this upcoming season more than a little intriguing. The injury-riddled Kuemper, fresh off the worst statistical season of his entire NHL career, will cost the Pacific Division club double what last year's starter Cam Talbot fetched in free agency with the Detroit Red Wings. But Kuemper, who brings an imposing presence in net and stellar depth control under the right coaching, brings two things to the Kings that Talbot can't - he's three years younger, and he has a Stanley Cup ring. Those two considerations may have been the driving force for the Kings when deciding to bring back a goaltender who once served as a brief member of the long list of backups for Jonathan Quick. Los Angeles sits in a unique position as a team that could enter one final, brief window for aging superstars Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar, and Kuemper - who Director of Goaltending Bill Ranford knows well as a former student - could be the perfect add to keep the team competitive in a historically weak Pacific Division.

The Kings didn't bother letting go of either of their two backups from last season, despite middling numbers from Pheonix Copley and a likely desire to see more ice time from David Rittich. But given Kuemper's lengthy history of bumps and bruises, this is a smart play; there's no real standout between Rittich and Copley, but both can serviceably take the reins when (and if) needed.

DADOUN: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Skinner becoming key to Oilers fortunes – Value to be had on the Ducks, Hawks, Avalanche, Wings, Kings, Wild, Penguins, and Leafs

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 16 Dec 2023 15:06:07 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - NOVEMBER 13: Edmonton Oilers Goalie Stuart Skinner (74) makes a save in the second period of the Edmonton Oilers game versus the New York Islanders on November 13, 2023 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

The Edmonton Oilers saw their eight-game winning streak come to an end Thursday in a 7-4 defeat to Tampa Bay. After their remarkable resurgence, it’s hard to be too critical of the Oilers, though it did underscore the team’s vulnerability: Goaltending.

Not to undersell the importance of Connor McDavid in Edmonton’s 11-3-0 run from Nov. 11-Dec. 12 -- the superstar forward scored eight goals and 28 points over that 14-game stretch, so he clearly did his part -- but Edmonton’s success this year will likely be determined in no small part by Stuart Skinner.

When the sky seemed to be falling in Edmonton early this season, Skinner posted a 1-5-1 record, 3.87 GAA and .854 save percentage in eight appearances. When all seemed to be fixed from Nov. 11-Dec. 12, Skinner went 10-2-0 with a 2.30 GAA and a .914 save percentage. On Thursday, he allowed five goals on 22 shots.

Skinner might bounce right back, and the Oilers need him to. Jack Campbell posted a 4.50 GAA and an .873 save percentage in five contests with Edmonton to start the campaign, leading him to be moved to AHL Bakersfield where he has an uninspiring 3.22 GAA and .894 save percentage in nine outings, so he’s probably not a viable alternative. Maybe Calvin Pickard is. The 31-year-old has done fine in limited play, posting a 1-1-0 record, 2.24 GAA and .917 save percentage in three contests, but he has a career 3.02 GAA and .904 save percentage in 119 outings, so it’s probably best not to bet on him being good for anything more than the occasional start.

Edmonton’s terrible start to the campaign also means that it’s just 13-13-1, even after winning eight straight, so the Oilers still aren’t done digging themselves out of their hole, though they’ve certainly made a lot of positive progress over the last month and, if Skinner plays well, they’re likely to enjoy continued success going forward.

Anaheim Ducks – MON @ DET, THU VS CGY, SAT VS SEA

The Ducks might not have been featured on a busier week, but with no games scheduled Dec. 24 due to the Christmas break, not many teams have four-game schedules. Meanwhile, the Ducks will play in Detroit on Monday before hosting Calgary and Seatle on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. Given the Flames and the Kraken’s struggles this year, those are winnable contests, even for a struggling team like Anaheim.

Trevor Zegras (lower body) also appears to be close to returning, so the Ducks might have him for the upcoming week. He had just a goal and two points in 12 contests before being shut down Nov. 12, but the injury was bothering him before he was shelved, so that might be the reason for his slow start, and the 22-year-old could play more like himself upon returning. For that reason, Zegras should be considered a good buy-low candidate.

It remains to be seen how the Ducks will adjust their lines when Zegras returns, but I expect Leo Carlsson to maintain his top-six role. The 18-year-old has earned his spot, providing eight goals and 14 points in 20 contests. I could see Adam Henrique losing some time -- he's also someone the Ducks will likely look to trade closer to the deadline -- but he has three goals over his last five outings, so perhaps Anaheim will at least keep utilizing him while he’s hot.

With that in mind, the hardest hit when Zegras returns could be Ryan Strome. He has three goals and 17 points in 27 contests this season while averaging 16:02 of ice time, but he’s already seen his role slide as of late -- he's logged under 16 minutes in each of his last six contests -- and that slide might continue.

Chicago Blackhawks – TUE VS COL, FRI VS MTL, SAT @ STL (BTB)

The Blackhawks are set to play at home all week, facing the Avalanche on Tuesday, the Canadiens on Friday and the Blues on Saturday. Colorado naturally figures to be a tough matchup, but St. Louis and Montreal are hovering around .500 PTS%.

There unfortunately isn’t a lot of value to be had with the Blackhawks, right now. I’ve been disappointed by Anthony Beauvillier, who has seen his playing time tick up since being acquired by Chicago from Vancouver, but nevertheless has just a goal and an assist in seven games with the Blackhawks. I do still think there’s potential there, so I’d recommend keeping an eye on him, but I’m less optimistic about the trade helping his production than I initially was.

Lukas Reichel has underwhelmed too, recording just two goals and six points in 28 contests this season. He did log 15:18 of ice time Thursday, which was his most this month, but he was also minus-2 with just one shot in Chicago’s 7-1 loss to Seattle. At this point, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the 21-year-old sent to the minors to work on his game and confidence but keep in mind that this rough stretch doesn’t alter the fact that he has tremendous potential.

For now, though, about the only Blackhawks player worthy of significant fantasy consideration in standard leagues outside of Connor Bedard is Philipp Kurashev. The 24-year-old has six goals and 16 points in 23 contests this year while regularly playing alongside Bedard.

Colorado Avalanche – TUE @CHI, THU VS OTT, SAT VS ARI

The Avalanche will begin the week with a road game against the lowly Blackhawks on Tuesday followed by home contests versus the Senators on Thursday and the Coyotes on Saturday. Of those squads, just Arizona is in a playoff position, and even then, only barely.

Nathan MacKinnon is one of the hottest players in the league right now. He’s on an incredible 13-game scoring streak (six goals, 21 points) and has been especially effective over his last five games, scoring four goals and 10 points. That brings the 28-year-old up to 12 goals and 41 points through 29 appearances this season, putting him on track to narrowly surpass the career high of 111 points that he established last year.

In terms of a hot player who has flown a little more under the radar, Sam Malinski has a goal and four points over his last four contests. The 25-year-old defenseman was summoned from AHL Colorado on Nov. 29 and has averaged just 13:39 of ice time with the Avalanche in 2023-24, including almost no work on the power play, which makes his recent production all the more impressive. Malinski might be a decent short-term option, but I don’t expect him to stay noteworthy offensively for much longer. He does have that element of his game, recording three goals and nine points in 17 AHL outings this campaign, but he’s just not going to get many opportunities with the Avalanche as long as their defense is relatively healthy.

Outside of that, keep an eye on Ryan Johansen. He has nine goals and 11 points in 29 contests this season, which makes him a disappointment with Colorado thus far, but after averaging a modest 12:15 over 11 contests from Nov. 18-Dec. 7, he’s logged at least 14 minutes in two of his last three games and seeing time on the second line, so perhaps something will come of that.

Detroit Red Wings – MON VS ANA, WED @WPG, FRI VS PHI, SAT @ NJD (BTB)

One of the rare teams set to play four games next week, Detroit will host the Ducks on Monday before kicking off a road trip that will send them to Winnipeg on Wednesday, Philadelphia on Friday and New Jersey on Saturday.

Although the Red Wings now have Patrick Kane, Detroit is missing Dylan Larkin (upper body), J.T. Compher (undisclosed) and David Perron (suspension). Perron isn’t eligible to return until next Friday against the Flyers, though he is appealing the suspension so it’s possible he’ll be back sooner. Compher is day-to-day at this point and likely to return Saturday versus Philadelphia, while Larkin skated Thursday, giving fans some hope that he won’t be out for long.

With at least Compher expected to play next week, Andrew Copp, who has logged 19:45 over his last three contests while contributing two assists, might see his playing time reduced. Compher will likely play alongside Michael Rasmussen and Patrick Kane in his return.

Speaking of Rasmussen, the 24-year-old forward has seen his usage rise recently. Although he’s averaging 15:20 this year, he’s jumped to 16:45 over his last four contests. That comes amid a larger hot streak for the 24-year-old, who has five goals and eight points over his past seven appearances.

Los Angeles Kings – TUE@SJS, WED @SEA (BTB), SAT VS CGY

The Kings are scheduled to stay in LA next week, hosting the Sharks on Tuesday, the Kraken on Wednesday and the Flames on Saturday. None of those squads are in a playoff position, so the 16-6-4 Kings have an opportunity to rebound after losing three straight from Dec. 9-13.

Cam Talbot has been dominant with a 12-5-2 record, 2.02 GAA and .927 save percentage in 19 contests this year, but with a back-to-back set upcoming, Pheonix Copley should be penciled in to play in one of the Kings’ next two contests. Copley is 4-1-2 with a 3.17 GAA and an .870 save percentage in eight appearances this season, so he’s left plenty to be desired, but Seattle ranks 29th offensively this year with 2.57 goals per contest, so if he gets the start Wednesday, which is the most probable scenario, then he might still be worth grabbing for the situational start.

Los Angeles has scored just five goals over its last three games, so most of its players haven’t stood out recently, but Alex Laferriere did find the back of the net Wednesday. It was just the rookie’s third goal and fifth point in 25 contests this season, but what’s noteworthy is he also logged 3:13 of power-play ice time, by far his most since October. Monitor the situation to see if Los Angeles continues to give him an opportunity with the man advantage. While Laferriere hasn’t done much this season, he does have offensive upside after scoring 21 goals and 42 points in 34 games with Harvard in 2022-23.

Minnesota Wild - MON @ PIT, TUE @BOS (BTB), THU VS MTL, SAT VS BOS

The Wild have won six of their last eight games after earning a 3-2 shootout victory over Calgary on Thursday, so they’ll look to carry that momentum as they look ahead to a busy week. They’ll play in Pittsburgh on Monday and Buffalo on Tuesday before returning home to host the Canadiens on Thursday and the Bruins on Saturday. Not an easy lineup, but there isn’t much in the way of teams playing four games next week, so Minnesota got highlighted for that alone.

Filip Gustavsson has been a standout performer recently, posting a 5-1-0 record, 1.33 GAA and .950 save percentage over his last six games. He’s likely to get the bulk of the action next week, but the Wild’s busy schedule means Marc-Andre Fleury will probably start in a game. The 39-year-old goaltender has a 4-5-2 record, 3.29 GAA and .886 save percentage in 11 contests this year, but he’s traditionally done well against Buffalo (23-7-4 with a 2.21 GAA and a .920 save percentage in 23 career contests), so it’ll be interesting to see if he gets the nod against the Sabres on Tuesday.

In terms of forwards, Matt Boldy has been fantastic with seven goals and nine points over his last eight contests. Boldy managed just one goal over his first 12 games this year, but after collecting 31 tallies in 81 contests in 2022-23, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Boldy continue to be a solid contributor even after his current hot streak fizzles out.

Another youngster, Marco Rossi, is also having a fun campaign. He’s found the back of the net in each of his last two outings, bringing him up to 10 markers and 17 points in 27 appearances this season. It helps that he’s found a top-six role, although his offensive production isn’t likely to truly take off until he does more with the man advantage. He’s been limited to one power-play point (a goal) this year while serving mostly on the second unit.

Pittsburgh Penguins – MON VS MIN, THU VS CAR, SAT @ OTT

The Penguins have been mediocre this campaign, so every point is important as they attempt to stay in the battle for a playoff spot. They’ll start the week by hosting the Wild on Monday and the Flames on Thursday before visiting Ottawa on Saturday. Carolina is the only one of those adversaries in a playoff position, though Minnesota has made strides since parting ways with coach Dean Evason on Nov. 27.

Rickard Rakell (upper body) hasn’t played since Nov. 19, but he might make his return before next week. In fact, he’s not only projected to play Saturday versus Toronto but skate on the top line alongside Jake Guentzel and Sidney Crosby. Rakell has just four assists in 17 contests this year, but that assignment might spark him.

Meanwhile, Sidney Crosby is continuing to excel, supplying three goals and six points over his last five contests, which increases his 2023-24 totals to 17 goals and 31 points in 28 contests. The 36-year-old is on pace to flirt with the 50-goal milestone for the first time since 2009-10, which might sound unsustainable, but he is firing 3.75 shots per game, up from 3.11 last season, so as long as he continues to fire the puck at that rate, the goals should continue to come.

One player you shouldn’t get excited about, though, is Jeff Carter. He scored twice Tuesday, but that brings him up to just three goals and four points in 22 contests this campaign. Unlike Crosby, age has caught up to the 38-year-old Carter, who is consequently serving primarily in a fourth-line role. He might not have another night like Tuesday’s again this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE VS NYR, THU @BUF, SAT @ CBJ

The Maple Leafs will play at home against the Rangers on Tuesday and the Sabres on Thursday before visiting Columbus on Saturday. The contest against the Blue Jackets should be interesting after Toronto overcame a 5-0 deficit against them, only to lose 6-5 in overtime Thursday.

Joseph Woll (ankle) isn’t expected to return next week, so Ilya Samsonov will probably start in all three contests. Samsonov has struggled with a 5-1-5 record, 3.51 GAA and .878 save percentage in 13 contests this season, but the alternative is Martin Jones, who will probably only be used when Toronto is facing a back-to-back set.

Fortunately, Toronto can count on its offense, led by Auston Matthews, who has an insane nine goals and 15 points over his last seven contests. He’s up to 23 markers and 35 points in 27 games this year. William Nylander has been superb too, recording at least a point in seven straight contests as well as multiple points in each of his last four outings.

Calle Jarnkrok has been quietly effective lately, providing two goals and seven points over his last six contests. His success has been overshadowed by the likes of Matthews and Nylander, but Jarnkrok giving the Leafs some secondary scoring certainly has value. With Toronto set to face Buffalo and Columbus, ranked 23rd and 30th in goals allowed per game, respectively, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Jarnkrok continue to factor on the scoresheet next week.

FANTASY: The Week Ahead – December 4th to December 10th – Senators Challenges Grow – Chicago, Colorado, Detroit, Los Angeles, Montreal among teams to target.

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 04 Dec 2023 17:17:11 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 21: Ottawa Senators Left Wing Brady Tkachuk (7) before a face-off during second period National Hockey League action between the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators on October 21, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

The opening for last week’s article was about Minnesota, so that’s twice now that I featured a team right before the coach was fired (the other instance of that was Edmonton). With apologies to D.J. Smith, I do want to discuss the Senators.

Ottawa is in a tricky position. The Senators went through the rebuilding process, having three top-five picks in three years from 2018-20 (Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson) followed by possessing the No. 10 selection in the 2021 NHL Draft (used on Tyler Boucher). Since then, they haven’t had a first-round pick, surrendering the 2022 selection to acquire Alex DeBrincat and their top pick in 2023 to get Jakob Chychrun. While they didn’t spend those picks on older players (and in the case of DeBrincat, they’re getting a first rounder back in the subsequent deal that shipped him to Detroit), it signaled that Ottawa is trying to move past the rebuilding phase.

It hasn’t worked out though. Ottawa was a middlingly 39-35-8 in 2022-23 and rather than take a step forward, the Senators are 9-10-0 this year. With Stutzle and Tkachuk having developed into star forwards while being backed by talented veterans Claude Giroux and Vladimir Tarasenko, Ottawa’s succeeded in troubling opposing goaltenders by scoring 3.32 goals per game, which puts the Senators in a four-way tie for ninth offensively.

Ottawa is also shaping up to be an amazing defensive team. In terms of expected goals against, the Senators rank second with 55.98. The Senators are an example of the reality of the NHL though: Even with a good offense and a strong defense, if your last line of defense is bad, then you’re still in trouble. Anton Forsberg has a 3.03 GAA and an .882 save percentage in eight contests this year. Joonas Korpisalo, who the Senators signed to a five-year, $20 million contract in the hopes that he’d stabilize their goaltending situation, has a 3.41 GAA and an .897 save percentage in 13 contests.

Things might be even worse than they look. Ottawa had 14 of its first 19 contests at home. That skewed schedule in the Senators’ favor will come back to haunt them from Dec. 14-Jan. 11 -- a stretch where they’ll play 11 of 14 contests on the road.

Chicago Blackhawks

The Blackhawks have four games ahead of them this week. They’ll face the Predators on Tuesday, the Ducks on Thursday, the Blues on Saturday and the Capitals on Sunday. The Capitals are the toughest of those teams with a 12-7-2 while the rest of the squads have been middling at best this year.

Chicago acquired Anthony Beauvillier from Vancouver last Tuesday, but he’s missed two of Chicago’s last three games due to visa issues. The exception was Saturday’s contest because it was in Winnipeg. In that game, Beauvillier played on the top line with Connor Bedard and Philipp Kurashev. If that’s his role going forward, which seems likely, then the trade could provide him with a substantial boost to his fantasy value. As a member of the Canucks, he was averaging just 13:39 of ice time, which is part of the reason why he was limited to two goals and eight points. As a member of Chicago’s first line, Beauvillier could conceivably get 30-40 points over the final 60 contests.

The Blackhawks could certainly use the help that Beauvillier should provided. Over the last three games, Chicago has managed just three goals. Connor Bedard factored on all of them (one goal, two assists), bringing him up to 11 goals and 20 points in 23 contests this campaign. He’s the man Chicago was hoping for, but arguably obtaining a superstar is the easy part. For that, you just need to tank and then win the lottery, which isn’t exactly a high-skill maneuver. Building around that superstar post-tank is the hard part, and it will likely be years before we’ll know if the Blackhawks can succeed in that phase.

It would help if Lukas Reichel, who is a high-end prospect in his own right, got going. The 22-year-old was a healthy scratch Sunday after scoring two goals and six points over his first 22 contests this year. While being scratched obviously isn’t great, the silver lining is that it gives him a chance to reset and view the action from a different perspective. Maybe it will help in the long run.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche have just three games this week, but they’re all home contests. They’ll start with the struggling Ducks on Tuesday (though it is worth noting Anaheim did manage to squeak away with a 4-3 shootout win over Colorado last Saturday) before facing Winnipeg on Thursday and Philadelphia on Saturday.

The Avalanche lost Cale Makar to a lower-body injury Saturday, and he missed Sunday’s game as a result. It remains to be seen how long he’ll be unavailable, but he’s the backbone of Colorado’s offense and defense, so losing him for any meaningful stretch of time would be a huge blow.

Sam Malinski drew into the lineup Sunday, logging 18:09 of ice time. He’s likely to remain in the lineup for as long as Makar is out. Malinski won’t come close to replacing the superstar’s offensive contributions, but Malinski does have three goals and nine points in 17 contests with AHL Colorado in 2023-24, so he might chip in a little. As far as the power play goes, Bowen Byram is likely to see time on the second unit while Devon Toews moves up to the top grouping, so both of their fantasy value will likely see a modest uptick in Makar’s absence.

Interestingly, rather than any of them, it was Josh Manson who factored in Sunday, scoring the Avalanche’s lone goal in a 4-1 loss to LA. Manson also registered an assist Saturday, so he’s at the start of what could be a hot streak, but it’s best to keep expectations low. After all, Manson has just three points in 21 contests this campaign, even after factoring in his recent production. He also has 32 PIM, 40 hits and 33 blocks, so he offers some additional utility if you did want to grab him in the hopes that his offensive run will last a little longer.

Detroit Red Wings

Detroit is set to play in Buffalo on Tuesday before heading home to face the Sharks on Thursday and the Senators on Saturday. All three of those opponents are in the bottom third of the league’s standings, so the Red Wings are in a strong position to go on a winning streak.

Patrick Kane signed a one-year, $2.75 million contract with the Red Wings on Nov. 28, but he’s likely to miss at least the first two contests this week as he looks to get back up to speed after undergoing hip surgery in June. When he does return, Kane will likely play alongside his old Blackhawks linemate, Alex DeBrincat, along with Dylan Larkin on Detroit’s top line. That should be a very effective unit, and while there’s an element of risk to Kane coming off surgery, he has the potential to record 40-50 points over the remainder of the campaign.

Getting Kane into the lineup might push Joe Veleno, who has averaged 15:00 of ice time this year, out of a top-six role. It also could cost David Perron his spot on the first power-play unit and push Robby Fabbri out of a power-play role entirely.

In terms of which Red Wings might benefit from having Kane on the roster, outside of Larkin and DeBrincat, we also might see Michael Rasmussen enjoy an indirect boost. Kane’s addition frees up Lucas Raymond to bolster the second line, which should help Rasmussen.

Detroit’s power play already enjoys a 23.5 conversion rate, which is eighth in the league, but if Kane is able to make the first unit even more successful, then that will also help defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere, whose production is closely tied to special teams.

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings are on the road this week, but their first two contests are against struggling adversaries in Columbus on Tuesday and Montreal on Thursday. The Kings will then travel to New York to face the Islanders on Saturday and the Rangers on Sunday.

Los Angeles is also one of the hottest teams in the league, having won six of its last seven contests. Trevor Moore has played a big role in the Kings’ recent success, scoring five goals and eight points in that seven-game span to climb to 12 markers and 20 points in 21 outings this year. Meanwhile, Adrian Kempe has collected four assists over his last four contests, giving him eight goals and 22 points in 21 contests in 2023-24.

In net, Cam Talbot continues to get most of the workload and deservedly so. He has a 1.96 GAA and a .930 save percentage through 16 games. Backup Pheonix Copley has a far uglier 3.04 GAA and .868 save percentage in six outings, but he’s won his last two starts while saving 48 of 49 shots (.980 save percentage) over that span. Copley will likely have an opportunity to extend that run against either the Islanders or the Rangers this weekend.

Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens will host the Kraken on Monday and the Kings on Thursday. Then the Canadiens will travel to Buffalo on Saturday before returning to Montreal to host the Predators on Sunday. It’s a busy week, and the Kings are a tough opponent, but Nashville, Buffalo and Seattle all have sub-.500 records.

Goaltender Jake Allen has a 3.74 GAA and an .898 save percentage in 10 contests this season, and he’s done particularly bad lately, posting a 4.63 GAA and an .871 save percentage over his last six outings. Cayden Primeau hasn’t done any better with a 4.24 GAA and an .875 save percentage over his last three contests, so there’s an opening here for Sam Montembeault to run away with the starting gig.

Montembeault has a 5-3-1 record, 2.73 GAA and .910 save percentage in 10 contests this campaign and has won his last two starts while saving 56 of 61 shots (.918 save percentage) over that span. The Canadiens also made a three-year, $9.45 million commitment to the 27-year-old goaltender Friday, which further increases the chances of him claiming that top spot.

In terms of hot players offensively, blueliner Gustav Lindstrom has scored two goals over his last three contests. He’s not someone you should expect a lot of productivity from -- over 139 career games, he has just 29 points -- but he’s clicking at the moment. Joel Armia also has two goals over his last three outings and importantly has averaged 15:35 of ice time over that stretch, up from 12:38 over his previous six games with Montreal.

Seattle Kraken

Seattle lost four straight contests to drop to 8-11-6 this campaign. The pressure is on the Kraken to turn things around this week, especially with a slate of home games on the horizon. First, they’ll play in Montreal on Monday, but then the Kraken will host the Devils on Thursday, the Lightning on Saturday and the Wild on Sunday.

The Kraken have scored just seven goals over their last four games, but Tye Kartye has been an outlier over that stretch with two goals and three points. The 22-year-old rookie still has just four goals and eight points through 24 outings this campaign, but he might be getting more comfortable as the year progresses. He certainly showed offensive upside in the 2022-23 campaign, supplying 28 goals and 57 points in 72 AHL outings. You can try taking a chance on him while he’s hot in the hope that his recent success might lead to something more. If nothing else, he’s a decent source of PIM and hits, having 25 and 43, respectively, this year.

Jared McCann has also provided two goals and three points over that four-game stretch, bringing him up to 11 markers and 16 points in 25 outings this year. However, that’s still well behind his pace from 2022-23 when he finished with 40 goals and 70 points. Rather than replicate his production from last year, McCann is more likely to finish with around 50-55 points, falling more in line with his 2021-22 showing.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay was expecting the return of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to bolster the team, but instead, the Lightning have lost four straight games. To be fair, Tampa Bay has provided just five goals during its losing streak, so Vasilevskiy hasn’t gotten sufficient support, but the netminder also has a 3.87 GAA and an .859 save percentage through four starts. Perhaps it’s hard for him to find his rhythm after missing the start of the campaign with a back injury.

The Lightning will attempt to right the ship this week with home games against the Stars on Monday and the Penguins on Wednesday, followed by a road trip taking them to Nashville on Thursday and Seattle on Saturday.

I do expect Vasilevskiy to settle in as the campaign goes on, so this might be a good time to explore the possibility of acquiring him at a discounted price. After missing so much time and struggling so badly out of the gate, some fantasy managers might be frustrated enough to move him.

In terms of hot players, Nikita Kucherov is basically all the Lightning have at the moment. He’s managed to assist on all five of the Lightning’s markers over the last four games, propelling him to 15 goals and 40 points through 24 contests this year.

Victor Hedman has also done well with a goal and three points over his last four outings. If you’re lucky enough to have the blueliner on your fantasy team, you’ve been treated to consistent production – he hasn’t had a scoring drought longer than two outings this year.

Beyond those two, though, no Tampa Bay player has recorded more than a point over the last four games. If there’s a silver lining among that group, it’s Tanner Jeannot, who has at least been productive in other ways. In addition to scoring a power-play goal over that four-contest stretch, he’s also recorded 15 PIM and 18 hits.

Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights hit a rough patch from Nov. 5-28 in which they posted a 3-5-3 record, but that seems to be behind them after earning back-to-back 4-1 victories against Vancouver and Washington, respectively. They’ll attempt to build on that with their home-and-away series against St. Louis on Monday and Wednesday. Following those contests, the Golden Knights will play in Dallas on Saturday and host the Sharks on Sunday.

We just covered Seattle and Tampa Bay, which had somewhat slim pickings when it came to hot players, but that’s not the case with Vegas. Four Golden Knights forwards have recorded at least three points over the last three contests: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Michael Amadio and Ivan Barbashev.

Of them, Amadio and Barbashev might be obtainable in fantasy leagues if you’re looking for someone to provide you with a short-term boost. Barbashev would be a particularly interesting option since he spent his first 410 career NHL games with St. Louis before being dealt to Vegas in February, so he might play with a little extra during the upcoming two contests.

It’s also worth noting that Adin Hill sustained a lower-body injury Thursday and missed Saturday’s contest as a result. It’s not clear how long he’ll be out for, but if he doesn’t return by the weekend, then Jiri Patera might get a start, perhaps versus San Jose. Patera isn’t having a great campaign with a 3.17 GAA and a .900 save percentage in 14 appearances with AHL Henderson, but he did post a 2.50 GAA and a .929 save percentage in two outings with Vegas last season, and the Sharks are a favorable opponent, so if it looks like he’ll get the start for that game then you should consider Patera as a situational pickup.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: EDMONTON OILERS VS. LOS ANGELES KINGS – Oilers firing on all cylinders heading into playoffs, McDavid hitting unmatched level

Corey Sznajder — Sun, 16 Apr 2023 16:26:56 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 30: Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) skates past Los Angeles Kings Center Phillip Danault (24) in the first period of the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Los Angeles Kings on March 30, 2023 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

The Setting

Despite winning 20 out of their last 25 games, the Oilers just missed the top seed in the Western Conference and are locked into a first-round rematch against the Los Angeles Kings. They took the Oilers to the brink last year but were outmatched in Game 7 after an all-world performance by Connor McDavid. They have an even more daunting task this time around as the league’s MVP is playing at an unmatched level this year, finding his way onto the scoresheet almost every night and finally surrounded by a capable supporting cast.

That said, the playoffs can be a tricky game and this Kings team doesn’t give up goals easily. A healthy Drew Doughty, the addition of Vladislav Gavrikov and another year of experience for players like Mikey Anderson, Matt Roy and Sean Durzi means they should be more prepared to handle the Oilers offense. They also improved their own offense with some off-season moves and some of their own players taking the next step. Los Angeles has a solid game-plan to slow down McDavid, but the difference this year is that the Oilers have improved to the point where they might not need their MVP to carry the team on his back.

The Matchup

The interesting thing about this series is that even though the Pacific Division standings have been fluid, both teams approached the last month like they were planning to see each other in the first round. Short two of their top goal-scorers (Fiala and Vilardi), defense has been where Los Angeles’ bread has been buttered lately. They added Vladislav Gavrikov at the deadline as a mobile, shutdown defender who can play a lot of minutes and they replaced their struggling franchise goaltender Jonathan Quick with Joonas Korpisalo. The trade was somewhat controversial, but they’ve been getting fantastic results out of him and Pheonix Copley, boasting the 3rd lowest goals against per 60 in the league over the past 25 games. Combine this with their tight defense and it’s a superstar’s worst nightmare as there isn’t going to be a lot of room to carry the puck.

The Oilers also buffed up their defense adding veteran Mattias Ekholm, adding a guy who can make retrieving the puck in the defensive zone less of an adventure will make it tough for the Kings to sustain a forecheck and his excellent mobility and stickwork is going to make rushes tough to come by if they try to counter. The addition of Nick Bjugstad also shores up some of the depth issues with Edmonton that will make it easier to win the 3^rd and 4^th line which have added up against them in the past. They only need someone to tread water in those minutes to keep McDavid fresh and they’ve been doing more than their share. The Kings 4^th liners are good enough to be some team’s top checking line, so improving the depth was very important for Edmonton heading into this series.

They even played eachother twice down the stretch, Edmonton taking both games with McDavid’s only point coming by way of a power play assist. The Kings tried to dictate the terms in both games, playing a disciplined, tight checking style and often lining up in a 1-3-1 forecheck in the neutral zone to force Edmonton’s stars to dump the puck in. Edmonton’s improved their offense by way of the forecheck and cycles, but Los Angeles is just as good at killing those plays, which means a lot of low shot games. This was especially true for the rematch in Los Angeles where Edmonton attempted only four shots at five-on-five for the entire period.

it’s easy to see how the early probing of the game went. Los Angeles didn’t want to make mistakes, kept the puck in front of them and their primary focus was not letting McDavid (or anyone else) get behind them. You can argue that it worked too because the score at five-on-five was only 1-1 between the two game and McDavid couldn’t get behind the Kings defense or create at will. The problem was Edmonton was willing to play this game without much issue. They dumped the puck in when they needed to and were patient with waiting for their chances.

An easy way to break the 1-3-1 is to prevent it from getting setup, which involves some risk with Edmonton staying out longer for their shifts, but it’s one you take everyday on offense if you have the advantage Edmonton does here. Los Angeles has improved their mobility on the back-end but they still don’t have a lot of players who can chase down McDavid if he gets a break. Hence why structure is going to be important for them to stay in this series and why the Oilers being content to play the checking game is catastrophic to their chances. Particulary when you factor in the Oilers advantage on the power play and how much of the post-season is five-on-five when the series gets beyond Game 3.

You can play as tight and as disciplined as you want, but eventually one team has to blink, and it was the Kings both times in the regular season. They tried to frustrate the Oilers at the expense of their own offense and while it worked, they couldn’t score on the power play while Edmonton struck on theirs, which put a wrench in their gameplan.

X-Factor

The difference makers for the Kings depends on who they get back from the injured list. They’ve been able to get by without Kevin Fiala and Gabriel Vilardi for most of the stretch run but against Edmonton, they were limited to a pop-gun offense. Part of playing the 1-3-1 is forcing turnovers and quick-striking the other way. They had no problem getting into the zone, but the offense was mostly one-and-done and their top line was stuck defending for most of their shifts. Edmonton was so quick on the back-check that it was tough for the Kings to create any east-west movement entering the zone and most of their passes off set breakouts were off-target or dead-on arrival.

Getting a structure breaker like Fiala could go a long way to solving this problem for the Kings and it’s a huge missing piece in their lineup. He can play anywhere from Kopitar’s line to leading a sheltered scoring line and gives LA someone who doesn’t need a lot of space to do damage. When you’re dealing with a team playing as disciplined as Edmonton was in these games, having someone who can make one check miss and draw coverage is the critical in getting the first domino to fall and opening the game up. Vilardi can bring a similar impact, but as a shooter and a power play option. Adrian Kempe and his straight-line speed is someone who can also do this, but the Oilers had a clampdown on him in the season series. He is dangerous though, as we saw in last year’s playoffs.

The other obvious X-Factor is Edmonton’s rookie goaltender Stuart Skinner, who is likely getting the nod after a disappointing season from free agent signing Jack Campbell. He has been reliable for the Oilers this year and was excellent in the season series, so there’s no reason for Edmonton to not have confidence in him going forward.

Prediction

The stars are aligning for Edmonton to have a long playoff run and the Kings have too many players currently injured to put a dent in it. The uncertainty in goal isn’t a small issue, but the Oilers are proving that they can be malleable with playoff hockey, and they can match up with any defensive roadblocks put in front of them.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Iaffalo, Rodrigues, Steel stepping up + The most productive players during the 2022 calendar year

Scott Cullen — Sat, 31 Dec 2022 15:21:06 +0000

TEMPE, AZ - NOVEMBER 01: Florida Panthers Right Wing Matthew Tkachuk (19) skates down ice during an NHL game between the Arizona Coyotes and the Florida Panthers on November 1, 2022, at Mullett Arena in Tempe, AZ. (Photo by Zac BonDurant/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Alex Iafallo, Evan Rodrigues, Sam Steel are among the veterans stepping up with recent production, plus a look at some of the most productive players during the 2022 calendar year.

#1 Although Los Angeles Kings left winger Alex Iafallo missed 23 games this season, he has returned to action and picked up where he left off when he got hurt. Iafallo had five points (2 G, 3 A) during a four-game point streak before getting hurt and he has seven points (4 G, 3 A) during his current five-game point streak. Iafallo is taking advantage of an injury to Trevor Moore to get regular playing time with Phillip Danault and Viktor Arvidsson, but that does leave some question about what Iafallo’s role will be when Moore returns from his current injury.

#2 After the Anaheim Ducks refused to give center Sam Steel a qualifying offer in the summer, the Wild signed him in late August. It was a low risk move for Minnesota and it is starting to pay off. Steel has moved to the top line, between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, and in the past nine games, he has produced eight points (1 G, 7 A). Just as importantly, his ice time is up to 17:38 per game in that span, after averaging 12:54 per game in his first 26 games with the Wild.

#3 An injury to Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson has opened the door for Erik Gustafsson to handle a bigger role. Gustafsson has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 18 shots on goal during a six-game point streak. His ice time has also increased, averaging 20:55 per game during the streak, compared to 19:11 per game before that. He is a capable puck mover who has recorded 10 of his 20 points this season on the power play, but his role on the power play is dependent on Carlson’s availability.

#4 Even the most optimistic Montreal Canadiens fan could not have expected the kind of contributions that the team is getting from rookie defenseman Arber Xhekaj. The 6-foot-3 blueliner is known for his toughness and he has still delivered on that end, but he has also contributed four points (1 G, 3 A) in his past five games, giving him 12 points (5 G, 7 A) to go with 101 hits and a league-leading 65 PIM. He is bringing banger league value already.

#5 The Colorado Avalanche did not sign Evan Rodrigues until just before training camp and it’s a good thing they did. Colorado has battled injuries all season and it has resulted in some players getting pressed into bigger roles. Rodrigues suffered a lower-body injury in late November but since returning to the lineup, he has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 28 shots on goal, while playing 20:41 per game, in seven games. He is centering Colorado’s second line and getting first unit power play time.

#6 Calgary Flames left winger Dillon Dube struggled early in the season, managing just six points (3 G, 3 A) in 21 games, but he has turned his season around. In his past 16 games, Dube has produced 15 points (5 G, 10 A) and 30 shots on goal. He has landed a spot on the Flames’ top line, skating with Elias Lindholm and Tyler Toffoli, which is a nice spot to continue putting up some numbers.

#7 Everyone knows that Alex Ovechkin is a legendary sniper. With 23 goals in 38 games this season, he now has 802 career goals to rank second all-time. Who ranks second on the Capitals in goals? (Wait for it….) The answer is Conor Sheary, who has moved up the lineup to play right wing on Washington’s top line. The veteran winger has 11 goals in 38 games and has put up 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in 14 games in December. Keep an eye on Sheary’s role as the Capitals get healthy. Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom are likely to return soon to the Capitals lineup, which will result in some line shuffling.

#8 He might not be a part of the long-term plan in Arizona, but Nick Schmaltz gives the Coyotes enough offensive punch to be more competitive than expected this season. In the past 10 games, Schmaltz has produced a dozen points (4 G, 8 A) with 18 shots on goal. He has never been a huge volume shooter – his career high is 2.02 shots on goal per game in 2019-2020 and he sits at 2.00 shots per game this season.

#9 Veteran Coyotes center Nick Bjugstad has probably not lived up to expectations in his career, surpassing 40 points in a season just twice, but he has been a useful addition for Arizona this season. In his past 18 games, the 6-foot-6 pivot has 11 points (7 G, 4 A) to go with 33 shots on goal and 45 hits.

#10 With Tyler Bertuzzi out and Jakub Vrana still working his way back from time in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, 2017 first-round pick Michael Rasmussen has had a better opportunity in Detroit. He has recently found himself on the left wing of Detroit’s top line, alongside Dylan Larkin and David Perron. Rasmussen has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal in the past four games and while he does not have high-end offensive upside, his production could help to earn him a bigger role even when the Wings get healthy.

#11 The Vegas Golden Knights have been decimated by injuries, to the point that Michael Amadio has spent time skating on the Golden Knights’ top line with Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone. Amadio has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 16 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. He is not a long-term fantasy answer but as a short-term fill-in, he is worth considering just because of his recent role in Vegas.

#12 Winnipeg’s forward lines are getting decimated by injuries. Nikolaj Ehlers was already out but adding Cole Perfetti and Blake Wheeler to the injured list has forced the Jets to get creative. While Sam Gagner and Karson Kuhlman have moved into the top six, the better value probably comes from Adam Lowry, who adds physical play to his point production. In his past 14 games, Lowry has nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 26 shots on goal and 33 hits.

#13 When the Los Angeles Kings decided to waive goaltender Cal Petersen, sending him to the AHL, it did not seem like the addition of journeyman Pheonix Copley would solve their goaltending issues. In the short term, at least, Copley has given the Kings a boost, winning eight of nine starts and posting a .905 save percentage. There is some risk in adding Copley, considering he had started one NHL game in the previous three seasons, but if you need a goaltender, he is going to keep getting reps as long as he can deliver league average goaltending.

#14 When it comes to rookie forwards, the top three scorers in the month of December are Anaheim’s Mason McTavish (2 G, 7 A in 14 GP), Arizona’s Matias Maccelli (2 G, 7 A in 12 GP), and Dallas’ Wyatt Johnston (5 G, 3 A in 14 GP). Maccelli has suffered a lower-body injury that will keep him for the next six week,s but McTavish and Johnston are more intriguing as they get their footing and turn into productive NHLers. McTavish has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past six games. Johnston has five points (4 G, 1 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past five games.

#15 With the calendar about to flip to 2023, here are the NHL leading scorers in the 2022 calendar year (heading into games on December 31):

Connor McDavid (57-86-143 in 86 GP)

Matthew Tkachuk (46-75-121 in 87 GP)

Mitch Marner (45-72-117 in 84 GP)

Kirill Kaprizov (55-62-117 in 86 GP)

Johnny Gaudreau (38-79-117 in 87 GP)

Nikita Kucherov (37-79-116 in 78 GP)

Leon Draisaitl (52-64-116 in 85 GP)

Auston Matthews (57-56-113 in 82 GP)

Sidney Crosby (46-63-109 in 87 GP)

Mikko Rantanen (46-61-107 in 85 GP)

Maybe none of these names qualify as a major surprise – they are elite scoring forwards, after all – but it is worth noting a player like Matthew Tkachuk, who has outscored every NHLer not named Connor McDavid in 2022.

#16 When it comes to underlying numbers, the players that are getting the highest quality and quantity of chances, these are the 2022 calendar year leaders in expected goals: Brady Tkachuk, Auston Matthews, Chris Kreider, Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid, Matthew Tkachuk, Jake Guentzel, Alex Ovechkin, John Tavares, David Pastrnak. These players are either elite scorers or players that are put in position to score by skilled linemates. Hyman and Guentzel naturally benefit from playing with elite playmaking centers.

#17 During the 2022 calendar year, these are the leaders in exceeding expected goals (ie. goals minus expected goals), according to Natural Stat Trick: Tage Thompson, Kirill Kaprizov, David Pastrnak, Jason Robertson, Bo Horvat, Mark Scheifele, Leon Draisaitl, Cole Caufield, Connor McDavid, and Brock Nelson. This is an intriguing group of players, including breakout superstars like Thompson, Robertson, Horvat, and Caufield. Over the long run, it is not easy to have a huge advantage over expected goals, but for the players that are elite finishers, they can be expected to convert a higher percentage of their scoring chances.

#18 At the other end of the spectrum, these are the 2022 calendar year players whose expected goals totals exceeded their goal totals by the greatest margin: Brady Tkachuk, Brendan Gallagher, Trevor Moore, Joe Pavelski, John Tavares, Mikael Backlund, Jesse Puljujarvi, Zach Hyman, Phil Kessel, Nicolas Roy. Some of these players have established that they are not going to score on a high percentage of their opportunities, but there could till be hope for someone like Puljujarvi to turn into more than what he has shown thus far in Edmonton.

#19 The top scoring defensemen in the 2022 calendar year:

Roman Josi (21-73-94 in 84 GP)

Cale Makar (24-70-94 in 88 GP)

Adam Fox (13-65-78 in 84 GP)

Victor Hedman (14-57-71 in 81 GP)

Quinn Hughes (7-64-71 in 75 GP)

Rasmus Dahlin (17-53-70 in 80 GP)

Josh Morrissey (13-55-68 in 85 GP)

Kris Letang (11-53-64 in 81 GP)

Erik Karlsson (15-49-64 in 61 GP)

Noah Dobson (19-44-63 in 92 GP)

The takeaway from this list is that there are very few defensemen capable of contributing a point per game. Josi, Makar, and Karlsson are the only three to exceed a point per game in the 2022 calendar year. Fox and Hughes are the next closest. Understanding the rarity of their contributions helps to establish their value above that of other defensemen.

#20 One of my preferred stats to follow is shot generation because consistent shot rates can add a level of consistency to point production. Here are the 2022 calendar year five-on-five per 60-minute shot rate leaders (minimum 200 minutes): Patrice Bergeron, Patric Hornqvist, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak, Nikolaj Ehlers, Timo Meier, Jeff Skinner, Jack Eichel, Tage Thompson. There are not a lot of surprises here, but Hornqvist is amusing because of hi very limited role in Florida at this stage of his career. Then there is a collection of players with ties to the Buffalo Sabres in spots eight, nine, and ten. Jeff Skinner and Tage Thompson are generating a lot of shots for Buffalo’s high-octane attack, while former Sabres center Jack Eichel has been able to generate shots at an elite level when healthy.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

Washington – System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Sat, 16 Sep 2017 12:10:04 +0000

Most teams scout in a variety of leagues to help replenish the minor league ranks with NHL-potential talent. Both historically and currently, the most popular destinations have been the three leagues of the CHL, the WHL, OHL and QMJHL. Looking at the various organizations around the league, the vast majority of teams had players to follow in all three leagues. There were a handful of teams that did not have a single player affiliated with a QMJHL season last year. There are also two teams that were barren in terms of WHL alumni in the system. And then there are the Washington Capitals. Not only are they the only system without players who spent last year in the OHL, but they also have not recently had a QMJHL affiliated player.

It is possible that their strong lean towards the WHL is a side effect of often having few picks to play with and often only late ones at that. Like the Pittsburgh Penguins, who are perennially contending, trading picks for players of present-day value, and thus putting an inordinate amount of faith in the their NCAA and NCAA feeder league scouts, so too might the Capitals be limiting their scouting exposure to the OHL, QMJHL, and apparently, Finland. Instead, they scout the WHL, Sweden, Switzerland, and to a lesser extent, the NAHL, very heavily, hoping that better depth in specific areas will improve their chances of successful outcomes.

To understand how deep this strategy of omission runs, the last player drafted by the Capitals out of the OHL was Tom Wilson in 2012. The last player they drafted out of the QMJHL was Stanislav Galiev in 2010. And 2004 was the last time they drafted a player out of the Finnish leagues, when they used picks on both Sami Lepisto and Pasi Salonen.

That is how the Capitals’ 2017 draft class, four players strong, included picks out of Fairbanks in the NAHL, EVZ Academy in the second Swiss league, MODO J20 in the Swedish junior leagues, and Almtuna J20, of a lower level Swedish junior league. It is also almost fair to note that the team augmented their system with a trio of college free agent signings from lower profile NCAA schools Alaska-Anchorage, Merrimack, and St. Lawrence.

From where we stand today, the depth over breadth approach to amateur scouting has not paid too many dividends. Although the team tends to be among the best in the league during the regular season, they have tended to flame out in the playoffs, at least in part due to a lack of firepower from the bottom half of the roster. Very few young players are breaking through from their (generally competitive) AHL affiliate in Hershey although the current depth chart suggests that two or three prospects may be ready for their big chance.

Without either a longer playoff run or a group of young prospects establishing themselves in short order with the NHL club, the Capitals will be forced to change their strategy or change the people executing on that strategy. Or both.

Ilya Samsonov

1 Ilya Samsonov – If the Capitals did not already have one of the best netminders in the NHL in his prime and locked up for another three seasons, they would be even more excited for having in their possession one of the clear-cut best goaltending prospects in the game. His numbers have been near the top in the KHL over the last two seasons while literally world beating at the WJC. He has exceptional athleticism for a goalie and rebounds immediately from the occasional stoppable goal allowed. When he is ready to leave Russia, the Capitals will find a way to make room for him on the NHL roster.

Washington Capitals left wing Jakub Vrana (13)(Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire)

2 Jakub Vrana – In two partial seasons in the AHL, the offensively gifted former first round pick has put up very strong numbers for Hershey, there are open questions about how well his game will translate to the NHL. Not even looking at his first 21 games last year (three goals, three assists), his high end speed and puck handling skills risk being neutralized in the NHL by a general lack of urgency. If he proves that he can produce with fewer soft spots in coverage to exploit, he can be a top six winger. No guarantee, though.

Lucas Johansen of the Kelowa Rockets was selected by the Washington Capitals in the first round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft in Buffalo, NY on Friday June 24, 2016. Photo by Aaron Bell/CHL Images

3 Lucas Johansen – To the naked eye, Johansen’s first post-draft year was marginally disappointing. Scouting the stat line shows offensive totals that had dropped somewhat, from 0.71 points per game in 2015-16, to 0.60 PPG last year. Moving past the stats, Ryan Johansen’s kid brother has been rounding out his game nicely. He has plus mobility and puck playing ability and is developing his defensive zone game marvelously. He still needs to bulk up, but has shutdown, possession ace ability.

4 Connor Hobbs – Hobbs, whose draft year got off to a very rough start, demanding a trade out of Medicine Hat, sojourning with Nipawin of the MJHL before being traded to Regina, is looking like a Grade A steal for the Capitals. He checks off all of the scouting boxes. Average or better as a skater, puck handling, shooter and strong hockey IQ to boot. He also has a solid frame and uses it well. The blueliner finished his WHL career with 109 points in 100 regular season plus playoff games. He is ready for the next level.

5 Madison Bowey – Bowey had a rough second season in the AHL, as sliced tendon in his ankle kept him out of action for nearly half the season. When he did play, his numbers were no better than they had been as a rookie pro. Further, he had a disturbing propensity to make unforced errors, pointing to poor decision making. On the other hand, he is an above average skater with intriguing puck skills and he flashes his physical tools fairly regularly. The next step is consistency.

6 Pheonix Copley – Had the Vegas Golden Knights selected Philipp Grubauer in the expansion draft instead of Nate Schmidt, Copley would be the odds-on favorite to land the backup goalie role in Washington for 2017-18. Signed by the Caps as a free agent out of Michigan Tech, Copley was traded to St. Louis two years ago and traded back this year at the deadline. A good athlete who does not quit on a puck, he has already proven his worth in the AHL. All that stands between him and the NHL is opportunity.

7 Jonas Siegenthaler – Sieganthaler has a very wide frame, uses his body to good effect, skates well for his bulk and is dependable in his own end. He has an active stick, muffles shooting and passing lanes well and keeps tight gaps. On their own, those traits should be enough for the young Swiss blueliner to play in the NHL. Which is good, because he brings little to the table with the puck. He makes a decent first pass in his own zone and nothing else. His shot is poor and his puck carrying is middling.

8 Chandler Stephenson – Although not a serious offensive threat, Stephenson is an easy player to root for. An exceptionally smart two-way forward, the former third rounder is also blessed with a strong set of wheels. While not fancy with the puck, his decisions tend to be the right ones, such as deciding when to hold it or when to lay it off for a teammate. His shot also holds some potential.

9 Shane Gersich – Additional playing with the reigning NCAA champions in North Dakota have led to vastly superior results for Gersich, a talented forward. His stickhandling is his strong-suit, as he has plus hands, good vision and a flair for opportunism. He is also trusted to kill penalties and plays a tenacious brand of hockey that belies his somewhat small frame, crashing the net and not shying from the tough areas.

10 Damien Riat – On the one hand, Riat’s production in his second season of high-level Swiss hockey with Geneve-Servette dropped considerably. On the other, he was once again a force at the World Juniors for his native Switzerland. He pays a sound two-way game, combining a powerful and speedy skating stride with a hard and accurate wrist shot and attention to detail in his own zone. He will be back in the NLA for a third season next year.

11 Travis Boyd – In many ways, Travis Boyd has a lot of the same prospect attributes as Jakub Vrana, profiled above. He is a very good puck handler, understands his role in all three zones and knows how to fire the puck in anger. The main differences between the two are that while Vrana is a very good skater, Boyd is only in the range of average, and Boyd is around 2.5 years older than Vrana, giving him less room for improvement. He has earned an NHL opportunity.

12 Beck Malenstyn – A big-bodied grinder, Malenstyn may be a future success story of the Capitals’ depth approach to scouting discussed at length above. In his first post-draft season, he bumped his goals from eight to 32 and his points from 25 to 56, on a team in a down year. He is unselfish with the puck and can take a hit without being removed from the play. He is also a strong skater who flashes some emerging puck skills. Definitely one who could rise on this list in future seasons.

13 Christian Djoos – Another late round pick who has proven to be an above average AHL player, Djoos’ strongest tool is without doubt his puck moving ability. He exudes confidence with the puck on his stick and generally makes strong decisions, deftly weighing risk and reward. He is also a solid skater. The main question is whether the aforementioned attributes are enough to overcome his slight frame (6-0”, 165). He may have done enough for Washington to try to find out.

14 Vitek Vanecek – Although recently a second round pick, Vanecek has not done enough yet to cement himself in Washington’s future plans. He had a strong rookie North American pro season in the ECHL but was below average in the AHL last year, prompting the team to re-acquire Pheonix Copley. An agile, butterfly-style netminder who is aggressive in his crease. This may be his last chance to stake his claim to a future in DC before Samsonov comes to America.

15 Riley Barber – Another AHL scorer, Barber has a long history of championships under his belt. He has won a Clark Cup with Dubuque, earned Gold Medals in both WU18 (2011-12) and WJC (2012-13) play and led Miami (Ohio) to an NCHC title as a junior in 2014-15. His offensive play is still ahead of his defensive play. He also has a tendency to take extraneous offensive risks. Healthy after missing close to half of last year with a hand injury, he will get more time in the NHL this year.

16 Tobias Geisser – Selected this year at the end of the fourth round, Geisser was the first pick made by the Caps, as they returned to one of their favorite scouting haunts, in Switzerland. He is remarkably mobile for his plus frame with a strong start up. He is also very calm with the puck and is strong on his stick when digging for loose pucks. He more than held his own in his first experience with high level men’s hockey in Switzerland’s second league and is a likely WJC participant this year.

17 Garrett Pilon – Despite a strong post draft season with Kamloops, improving to nearly one point per game, Pilon is still primarily a defensive forward prospect. Most of his game screams “average!”, particularly his ability to push play in the offensive zone. The son of longtime NHLer Rich Pilon still has one more season to leave a mark in the WHL.

18 Brian Pinho – Pinho’s first two post draft seasons were very successful from a team perspective, as he first won a Clark Cup with Indiana, and followed that up with an NCAA championship as a freshman at Providence. Since then, he has steadily improved his ability to produce at the NCAA level. He is a decent skater with solid puck skills combined with offensive zone vision. Quick hands make him dangerous.

19 Hampus Gustafsson – One of three college free agents signed by Washington this offseason, Gustafsson was a decent offensive producer in his last three seasons with Merrimack, trailing only Devils pick Brett Seney in points each year. Other than a partial season in Midget hockey after first coming over from Sweden to North America, he has never produced dominant numbers. What allows him to stand out is his strong 6-4” frame.

20 Chase Priskie – A strong offensive defenseman from Quinnipiac, Priskie brings decent top end speed and confident puck play to the ice. The Florida native still turns off some observers due to risk taking and a propensity for being caught up-ice after a stalled rush. Also most points are finished by his teammates as his point shot is average at best.

The Capitals have a relatively deep system in terms of players who could play roles in the NHL, especially if AHL production is as reasonable a gauge as it usually is. The concern is that after Samsonov, it is hard to state with any certainty that too many guys will mature into players capable of being types that a team can integrate into a part of a winning core. Even those with that potential have clear flaws. It is time for some of these players to be given extended looks in the NHL.

NHL Prospect Watch: Trade Deadline Edition – Moving Prospects – Loov is in the air

Ryan Wagman — Sat, 04 Mar 2017 15:01:25 +0000

A few short days ago, the clock struck three and NHL General Managers across the continent put down their phones and dismissed their staffs to compiling lists for another day. Although NHL Trade Deadline Day was rightly excoriated for being slow and without excitement, 20 trades were finalized on this day to go along with the 11 other swaps consummated in the previous week.

As interesting as the ramifications of Kevin Shattenkirk moving to the American Capital are, you are not reading this space for that type of analysis. You are reading to find out about prospects. There were 19 prospects dealt in the run up to the deadline. For the purpose of this article, I will look at any player who was considered a prospect before the season began, that is, he is no older than 25 and has played no more than 25 games in the NHL. I will also ignore the waiver claim of former Anaheim Duck Joseph Cramarossa by Vancouver (meh) and the signing of former New York Ranger draft pick Ryan Mantha by Edmonton (nice). The profiles will be brief at first, and expand as we move from lower-likelihood NHLers to those with glowing profiles.

MONTREAL, CANADA - DECEMBER 26: Sweden's Jonathan Dahlen #27 skates during preliminary round action against Denmark at the 2017 IIHF World Junior Championship. (Photo by Andre Ringuette/HHOF-IIHF Images)

Let the rankings begin!

Daniel Catenacci (New York Rangers, 3/77, 2011 (drafted by Buffalo) – LW/C, Hartford (AHL))

Taken by Buffalo in the third round in 2011 as a scoring winger from Sault Ste. Marie, Catenacci never took another step forward over two more seasons in the OHL. Now in his fourth season in the AHL, he has taken another step back this year, with only 13 points in 50 games for the Rochester Americans. He is system depth.

Kenton Helgesen (Chicago Blackhawks, 7/187, 2012 (drafted by Anaheim) – LW/D, Utah (ECHL))

Helgesen is a big guy who can play both at forward and on the blueline. Now in his second year as a pro, he has yet to play above the ECHL. Putting him above Catenacci is not a statement that he is better any more than it is a reminder that he has yet to wash out, as Catenacci is in danger of doing.

Cody Corbett (Washington Capitals, UDFA, 2014 (signed by Colorado) – D, Hershey (AHL))

Corbett was a significant contributor to the Edmonton Oil Kings’ Memorial Cup win in 2014, a sweet finish to a strong junior career. Now in his third pro season, he has flitted back and forth between the AHL and ECHL for the past two seasons. He has an offensive element to his game, but it is just as likely to hurt his tea as to help it.

Stefan Fournier (Tampa Bay Lightning, UDFA, 2013 (signed by Montreal) – RW, Syracuse (AHL))

Traded last year from Montreal to Arizona, February saw Fournier on the move again, this time to Tampa Bay, in exchange for AHL veteran Jeremy Morin. A pugnacious player with some decent offensive touch during his junior days in the QMJHL, Fournier has retained the pugnacity as a pro. With 11 goals in 139 AHL games, the offensive touch has withered away. He has enough puck skill and shooting prowess that a cameo in the NHL might one day be a possibility if the stars align, but I wouldn’t put any money on it.

Brendan Ranford (Colorado Avalanche, 7/209, 2010 (drafted by Philadelphia, not signed, signed as UFA by Dallas) – LW/RW, San Antonio (AHL))

Ranford has had an odd career. Promising enough for Kamloops in 2010 for the Flyers to take a flyer on him, his increased offense over two more seasons with the Blazers were not enough to push them to offer him a contract. The Stars gave him an AHL contract and rewarded a promising rookie pro season with an ELC. His two subsequent years were stellar by AHL standards, with 110 points in 149 games combined. Earlier this year, the Stars dealt Ranford to Arizona and he went dry in the desert. The Coyotes flipped Ranford to Colorado for 5-6” journeyman Joe Whitney. If Ranford rediscovers his exploits from the last two years, he might earn himself some time up with the Avalanche.

Adam Wilcox (Florida Panthers, 6/178, 2011 (drafted by Tampa Bay) – G, Springfield (AHL))

The trade of Wilcox from Tampa Bay to Florida for journeyman AHLer Mike McKenna raised some eyebrows, as Wilcox is younger and has more upside. Theoretically. He is a fairly athletic netminder, who moves well between the pipes. Unfortunately, the former Minnesota Golden Gopher has some problems when it comes to stopping pucks. His current save percentage of .895 is a career best. There is some talent here, but it is a ways away from being realized.

Grayson Downing (Arizona Coyotes, UDFA (signed by Minnesota) – C, Tucson (AHL))

Part of Arizona’s return in the big Martin Hanzal trade, Downing was in the midst of a let-down follow-up to a promising AHL rookie season last year. The former University of New Hampshire Wildcat has nice hands and good hockey sense, but is held back by very poor skating. He could carve out a nice minor-pro career or take his game to Europe, but his feet will prevent him from sustained success – or even too many full-fledged opportunities – in the NHL.

Sam Carrick (Anaheim Ducks, 5/144, 2010 (drafted by Toronto) – C, San Diego (AHL))

Carrick signed this past offseason with Chicago after he was not offered a contract to re-sign with the Maple Leafs. Carrick, whose younger brother Trevor is in the Carolina system, has a nice blend of skills, but no one element that allows him to stand up above the crowd. He has already had some NHL experience, having played 19 games over two seasons with Toronto, but was never going to get a real chance with Chicago. He was traded along with older AHLer Spencer Abbott to Anaheim for the aforementioned Kenton Helgesen and a 2019 seventh rounder.

Keegan Lowe (Montreal Canadiens, 3/73, 2011 (Drafted by Carolina) – D, St. John’s (AHL))

Keegan Lowe, son of longtime Oiler Kevin Lowe, is not the player his father was. The younger Lowe has a good body for the back line, but plays a very physical game. He is not a pure defensive defenseman, although his work is much stronger in his own end. Lowe is a solid skater and he has cleaned up his game over the four seasons he has now spent in the AHL, lowering his penalty minutes substantially over that time. Unfortunately, his offensive production has stayed pretty stable throughout, as he has scored between 11-14 points in each season.

Reece Scarlett (Florida Panthers, 6/159, 2011 (Drafted by New Jersey) – D, Springfield (AHL)

Scarlett is essentially the inverse of Lowe. This blueliner, moved from New Jersey to Florida for another minor leaguer who is too old for this list (Shane Harper), Scarlett has always put up respectable offensive totals in the AHL, but can be taken advantage of in his own end. He is mobile and is smart with the puck on his stick, a capable minor league power play point man. He will join a crowded blueline in Springfield.

Dillon Heatherington (Dallas Stars, 2/50, 2013 (Drafted by Columbus) – D, Texas (AHL))

The highest drafted player (so far) on this list, Heatherington is a big, broad stay at home blueliner. The former WU-18, WJC, and AHL champion is a decent skater, but loses a step if he has to turn around. His offensive game is minimal. I am not one to buy into the notion of a player having a “winning gene”, but I am happy to state that Heatherington’s game is fairly safe. He will not lead a team to victory, but can pay a role in staving off defeat. If he makes it up to a full time roll in the NHL, expect him to play heavy minutes on the penalty kill.

Philip Samuelsson (Carolina Hurricanes, 2/61, 2009 (Drafted by Pittsburgh) – D, Charlotte (AHL))

Now in his fourth organization, Ulf Samuelsson’s son (and brother of Henrik Samuelsson) started his career in the Penguins’ system, and passed through Arizona and Montreal before moving to Charlotte where his father is currently serving as head coach. Philip is a solid two-way defender for the AHL level, strong at beginning the transition from defense to offense, and should be able to hold down a sixth defender role in the NHL for a mediocre to average team. In spite of very poor numbers this year with St. John’s before the trade, Samuelsson is as good as he is going to be. If he does not add to his total of 13 career NHL games soon, he may never do so. He was traded straight up for Keegan Low, profiled above.

Pheonix Copley (Washington Capitals, UDFA (signed by Washington) – G, Hershey (AHL))

Copley was actually signed to his first pro contract by the Washington Capitals, a free agent after his sophomore season with Michigan Tech. He was traded to St. Louis just over one year later, as part of the return to the Blues along with Troy Brouwer, for T.J. Oshie. Copley has been above average at the AHL level through his pro career, and his current .920 save percentage has him in the top 15 leaguewide. His two NHL cameos with the Blues were forgettable, surrendering a total of six goals in under one and a half games. He has good legs, is calm in the crease and does a nice job in cutting down shooting angles when possible. At 25, he is still young for a goaltender and has the makings of a solid backup at the NHL level down the road.

Zach Sanford (St. Louis Blues, 2/61, 2013 (Drafted by Washington) - LW/C, St. Louis (NHL)

Part of the return to St. Louis in the deadline period’s biggest deal (Kevin Shattenkirk joined the aforementioned Pheonix Copley in going the other way), Sanford has already played enough in the NHL in his first pro season that he will no longer qualify as a prospect in the offseason. Sanford was a strong collegiate player at Boston College, playing with good net drive and showing flashes of plus puck play. He is the type of player who has less to gain by a lengthy AHL apprenticeship. His game is well suited to a bottom six role in the NHL, playing with energy, decent puck handling and the ability play in all three zones. If he does not stick with the Blues from here on out, it will be more because they prefer other players to any feeling that Sanford needs to develop further with the Chicago Wolves in the AHL.

Viktor Loov (New Jersey Devils, 7/209, 2012 (Drafted by Toronto) – D, Albany (AHL))

Traded from Toronto to New Jersey almost two weeks before the deadline, Loov has had a rough season, hampered by injury. That said, I am still a big fan of one of the best open ice checkers in the AHL. His offensive game has promise as well, with a booming point shot. To paraphrase Bono,

Don’t believe in fighting

Can knock you down with hip

He could cut and crack you open

Did you hear what I said?

Don’t believe in when they tell me

His skating’s not pure

He needs to stay healthy

But his game’s unmoored

I, I believe in Loov

Erik Cernak of the Erie Otters. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

4. Erik Cernak (Tampa Bay Lightning, 2/43, 2015 (Drafted by Los Angeles) D,Erie (OHL))

Cernak, a key part of the return to Tamp Bay from the trade of Ben Bishop to LA, is the only prospect traded this month to still be in junior hockey. Although he has spent the past two seasons with the highflying Erie Otters, Cernak is not an offensive player. As of this writing, he has played 41 games in both of his last two seasons (prior to that he played in Slovakia). His scoring has increased this year from 15 points….to 17 points. Likewise, in four WJC tournaments for his native country, he has a mere three points in 20 combined games. He does show flashes of offensive aptitude, but tends to mind his own end first and foremost. He is a good penalty killer and uses his long reach effectively. He will make his AHL debut next season, and knowing the Lightning, will be given the benefit of time to maximize his development.

Mark McNeill (Dallas Stars, 1/18, 2011 (Drafted by Chicago) – RW/C, Texas (AHL))

Finally, we have a former first rounder on the move. McNeill is a strange case. He has put up solid, if not spectacular, numbers in the AHL year over year, although he slumped somewhat this year. He plays a strong two-way game and demonstrates impressive hockey IQ in all three zones. He is a trusted penalty killer and has plus instincts in the offensive end. He can stickhandle, has a very hard shot from the slot area and will be physical on occasion as well. But he never received a chance with the Blackhawks, receiving only one game in the NHL across four professional seasons. I was surprised when he passed successfully through waivers before the season started, but the Blackhawks were able to use that to their advantage, packaging McNeill with a conditional 2018 fourth rounder to Dallas to re-acquire Johnny Oduya. The Stars would be wise to give him an NHL chance before this year is done.

Nikolay Goldobin (Vancouver Canucks, 1/27, 2014 (Drafted by San Jose) – LW/RW, Utica (AHL))

The main return to the Canucks for the services of Jannik Hansen, Goldobin would be one of the better prospects dealt at any deadline, much less a slowish one such as this. Goldobin is one of the more electrifying puck players outside of the NHL. When he is on his game, he can make good defenders look silly. The knock on him in his draft year and his rookie AHL season was his unwillingness to play hard in his own end. This year, he finally looks to have taken that criticism to heart, showing commitment even when his team did not have the puck. He will never be rugged, but he can be responsible. He has had cameos with the Sharks in each of his past two seasons and will likely receive the call up to Vancouver sooner than later. He is exactly the type of player that Vancouver needed in the fast approaching post-Sedin era.

Jonathan Dahlen (Vancouver Canucks, 2/42, 2016 (drafted by Ottawa) – C/LW, Timra (Allsvenskan))

Between Goldobin and Dahlen, stolen by the Canucks from Ottawa for the aging Alexandre Burrows, the Canucks have finally admitted that they are a rebuilding team. While bottom dwelling Colorado sat on their heels, limiting themselves to a few minor AHL swaps, the Canucks reeled in the two best prospects who were moved this month. Dahlen, scoring at a near point-per-game pace in the Swedish Allsvenskan, the number two league in the country is fourth in league scoring. IF we limit that to players under 20 (he is 19), no one is within six points of him. He also scored five goals in Sweden’s run to the semifinals at this year’s WJC. Ulf Dahlen’s son is a constant threat to defenders with his plus vision, agility, puck skills and strong shot. His contract with Timra is set to expire after this season, and the Canucks should be doing everything possible to ensure that the high scoring teenager crosses the pond this summer. He and Goldobin should be one third of the team’s future top six.