T.J. Brennan – McKeen's Hockey

NHL Fantasy: A Glance at 2014-15

Carl Lemelin — Tue, 01 Apr 2014 12:34:46 +0000

With nothing left to do but play out the rest of your 2014 fantasy playoffs, the only roster-management related work left is to monitor the possible “splash” arrivals of next season.

Some of the following players could still be free agents in your league; others may still be had for a reasonable return from current owners with immediate and urgent needs. One thing is clear however: if you are in a keeper league, these are players you shouldn’t ignore going into your off-season preparation.

Johnny Gaudreau (LW) – CGY: The 20 y/o junior from Boston College is the odds-on favorite to win the Hobey Baker Award this season. He has scored at a ridiculous pace of almost 2 points-a-game (39-35-42-77). Many will remember his impressive performance in the 2013 World Juniors (7-7-2-9). Sure his size (5’ 9” – 150 lbs) could be an issue, but we have seen a significant shift in the “new NHL”, where smaller skill players are given a better opportunity to excel. The Flames are the perfect franchise for Gaudreau to develop at a faster pace: coach Bob Hartley has a good track record with youngsters and loves to ride talented offensive players. Could end up being considered a Datsyuk or Zetterberg-type steal from the 4^th round of the 2011 draft (104^th overall).

Jonathan Drouin (LW) – TBL: Got over a slow start to his season in a hurry. Once he settled back into his comfort zone following the disappointment of being cut from the Lightning’s opening night roster, Drouin dominated the QMJHL like never before. He actually finished the season with a higher PPG (2.34, 46-29-79-108) than last season (2.14), when he had Nathan MacKinnon as a linemate. As if that weren’t enough, he is bettering this performance in the current playoffs (4-6-7-13). Tampa Bay is having a solid season and has seen an influx of young up-and-coming offensive forwards fill their lineup this season. This means Drouin may possibly start 2014-15 in the AHL, but there should be no doubting his all-star potential as a future NHL scorer.

John Gibson (G) – ANA: The big American tender showed he wasn’t overwhelmed by the limelight of pro hockey in the first half of his rookie AHL season. He’s hit more bumps in the road in the second half, but a .917 SP and tying for the league lead in shutouts with 5 is enough on the resume to substantiate franchise goalie upside. The Ducks’ brass sees him as its number one of the future and will surely want to give him a taste of the Big Show next season – hint to those of you in formats where duos are valued and who currently own Jonas Hiller. The 20 y/o has always shown a tendency to excel when games mean the most: .941 SP in two combined OHL Playoffs and .943 SP in two combined World Junior Championships.

T.J. Brennan (D) – TOR: I mentioned him early in the season as an early waiver wire candidate. Of course he couldn’t maintain the ridiculous pace he set after his first three games of the AHL season (7-3-10, +6), but he did keep producing offense at close to a point-a-game pace (22-41-63 in 67 games, with a whopping 240 SOG). After signing a one-year deal with the Leafs, the 24 y/o never got an opportunity to showcase his skills on the big club since the Buds’ D already features offensive-minded youngsters Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner. A pending RFA on July 1^st, his stellar performance will undoubtedly have caught many a pro scout’s eye among organizations desperate for PP help on the point. Take a flyer on this under-the-radar gem as he could represent quite a pay off wherever he lands next fall.

Swinging For The Fences

Carl Lemelin — Mon, 21 Oct 2013 13:55:24 +0000

With the World Series upon us, there is no better time to tackle the art of hitting homeruns... Fantasy hockey style that is! Two weeks into the regular season is still early enough to find those undervalued assets that could land you a championship (or a few) for a clearance price-tag.

It could be a struggling veteran, a high-ceiling youngster who has yet to get his chance at glory or a late-blooming prospect. The key is identifying potential signs pointing to a pending explosion in a player’s production.

The second step will be evaluating the cost: if the player is a free agent, you may have to release someone from your current roster to make room for the new acquisition; if he belongs to a competitor you’ll have to put together an attractive enough package to make your counterpart bite on the offer, without affecting your starting lineup.

Just remember that when you swing for the fences, you must be willing to strike out once in a while. That’s why you shouldn’t spend more than depth players and/or draft picks on under-the-radar purchases, unless you are completely sold on the player’s upside.

It’s definitely too late for Alexander Steen to qualify, but here are a few other notable bombs that have yet to detonate.

Ryan Johansen (C) – CBJ: The 21 y/o has had an underwhelming first couple of seasons in The Show, but we can’t ignore the talent level that made him the Jackets’ 4^th overall pick in the 2010 draft. He’s since made consistent gains in strength and skating technique. He may have been rushed by Columbus, cracking the lineup straight out of junior, but had a fortunate confidence-building stint in the AHL during last year’s lock-out (40-17-16-33). Recently posted his best outing as a pro, recording a goal and a helper and logging a career-high 20:22 TOI in Montreal on October 17^th. Finally seems to have grabbed a hold of the second line role on an improving roster. Prime candidate if available or if his current owner has lost patience.

T.-J. Brennan (D) – TOR: Should be a fantasy free agent since he didn’t make the Leafs’ opening day roster out of camp. Part of a fantasy GM’s due diligence is following up on AHL stats and if you have, you’ve already noticed the ‘Justin Schultz’-type start to the season that Brennan is authoring (5-8-4-12, +4 – league scoring leader). You read it right, that is not a typo! Brennan is a key injury away from a shot at quarterbacking the Leafs’ PP and might then do too good a job to be sent back down. He’s already proven he can produce offense in the NHL (19-2-7-9 for Florida last season). Great opportunity if your league allows for a farm team or a deep roster. Hurry before someone else notices the video game numbers!

Cory Conacher (LW-RW) – OTT: Only has 7 points in his first 20 games as a Senator (8-2-0-2 this season), after a strong start in his rookie season with the Lightning last season (35-9-15-24). There is a reason this torpedo of a winger was called ‘mini- St-Louis’ in Tampa Bay. He has the exceptional vision and the proverbial knack for being in the right place at the right time. Now his +4 rating has him in coach Paul MacLean’s good books, which has translated in a regular spot on Ottawa’s first line and first PP unit (with Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek). He’s on the verge of a major breakthrough and has point-a-game upside.

Slava Voynov (D) – LAK: The young Russian rearguard has been quiet following a stellar campaign in 2013 that featured a Conn-Smythe type performance during another solid playoff run for the Kings. He is well behind last year’s point producing pace, but it is noteworthy that his booming point shot has him on an early pace for his best goal-scoring season. The assist shortage (9-2-1-3 so far this season) might simply be a by-product of a generally anemic start for L.A. offensively (21^st overall with a 2.33 G/G). Voynov has been much more involved in the offense lately and should get back on track toward a 40-50 point posting. Trigger-happy fantasy owners could be lured here.

NHL: Week 10 An Eye On Next Year

Carl Lemelin — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 13:33:19 +0000

Note*** A full NHL schedule breakdown by week is available here on a Google doc.

AN EYE ON NEXT YEAR

If your keeper league still allows waiver wire pick-ups, this time of year may be an opportunity to get your hands on next season’s Next Big Thing. I managed to catch my fellow competitors napping around this time last season by acquiring free agent Justin Schultz just before the end of our regular season. With the start he had in the AHL, he surely would have gone first overall in our entry draft, which was exceptionally held in December due to the lockout.

Who will be next season’s Justin Schultz? Here are a few VERY early candidates for some significant playing time on their respective NHL teams in 2013-14. Don’t fall asleep at the wheel, if you can spare a roster spot these guys might give you an edge in the short, mid or long term.

Tyler Johnson (C) – TBL: A natural goal scorer, Johnson is yet another diminutive dynamo that was never drafted due to his size (when will they ever learn...). Not only has he produced at every level, but his learning curve is very steep: 75-31-37-68 in his rookie AHL season a year ago and already 6-3-3-6 in his first call-up to the big club. The 22 y/o American is also a high energy competitor who has never been a minus player... at any level (currently +6 for a struggling Lightning squad). Another Martin St-Louis or Cory Conacher in the making for Tampa?

Tyler Toffoli (RW) – LAK: Seems to be at the exact same stage as Johnson, but two years younger and four inches taller (thus he was drafted). Skating deficiencies had him fall to 47^th overall in the 2010 draft. Hmmm... awkward skating, great nose for the net... Remind you of another Kings great that seemingly came out of nowhere back in the 80’s? He’s in their front office today. This kid still has to fill out his frame and that will come with pro off-ice training methods, but we see no reason to believe he won’t be a force as an NHL sniper someday . Recently called up and had a goal and an assist in his second game in the NHL.

Gustav Nyquist (LW) – DET: We’ve been waiting for this guy for a couple of years now, but you know how the Wings work... Well, his time has finally come. We think his March 13^th call-up could finally be his last. The former U. Of Maine standout still leads the Eberle-less AHL in scoring (58-23-37-60). He is currently on Detroit’s fourth line, but he is seeing PP time on the second unit, another typical Wings move to slowly incorporate their young players. We do expect Nyquist to get a top 6 job next season since Drew Miller and Justin Abdelkader are clearly inadequate in that role going forward.

Nick Bjugstad (C) – FLO: Much like Justin Schultz, Bjugstad may be next season’s hottest commodity coming out of the college ranks. He’s a physical specimen at 6’5” and 212 lbs so we know his body is NHL ready. But the fact that he belongs to a team that desperately needs an infusion of talent makes him one of the VERY early Calder Trophy favorites for 2013-14. He was a force at the WJC for the champions Team U.S.A. (6-4-2-6), proving he can compete and produce at an elite level. A key cog of the strong rebuilding plan Dave Tallon is putting together in South Florida.

T.J. Brennan (D) – FLO: Acquired March 15^th from the Sabres, this one may be more of a ‘shot in the dark’ type of pick. Offensive defensemen are much more difficult to forecast than forwards. The position takes more time to assimilate and even the most heralded prospects suffer through multiple setbacks before finding a comfort zone that finally makes them consistent point producers. Now 23, Brennan may be one of those late-bloomers: he improved from 0.58 PPG last season to 0.94 in this his fourth AHL campaign. His minutes have gone up since the trade and the Panthers are giving him a real shot at the PP. He possesses a very hard slap shot, which could complement Brian Campbell’s terrific passing ability (remember Jason Garrison last year?).