tyson barrie – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Opportunities in deployment in the very early going – Boeser, Donato, Couturier, Paul, Newhook and more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 14 Oct 2023 12:42:35 +0000

BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 11: Chicago Blackhawks center Connor Bedard (98) skates up ice during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Chicago Blackhawks on October 11, 2023, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, as most teams have played one or maybe two games, here is a look at the early results, looking at deployment in an effort to pull insights from the very early action. Brock Boeser, Ryan Donato, Sean Couturier, Nick Paul, Alex Newhook and more!

#1 Last season was trying for Vancouver Canucks right winger Brock Boeser, who finished with 18 goals in 74 games, the lowest per-game goal-scoring rate of his career. His father had died the previous May and that appeared to be having an effect. He also scored on 10.1% of his shots, which was below his career rate of 13.0%, so things were off, and he asked for a trade. Boeser rescinded that request and began this season with the ideal fresh start, scoring four goals in an 8-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers. He was the beneficiary of some favourable bounces of the puck, but there is no need to apologize for how one scores four goals in a game. Boeser is skating on a line with Phillip Di Giuseppe and J.T. Miller at even strength and getting first unit power play time, so the opportunity is there for a bounce-back campaign.

#2 The Chicago Blackhawks have not been shy about how they are using No. 1 overall draft pick Connor Bedard through two games. Bedard has looked as NHL-ready as anyone could ask from a teenager, contributing one goal and one assist in two games, but he is also averaging 21:37 of ice time per game, which is unusually high for a rookie forward. Since 2000-2001, there have been three rookie forwards to average more than 20 minutes of ice time per game: Alex Ovechkin, Anze Kopitar, and Sidney Crosby. Ovechkin was a 20-year-old rookie, who averaged 21:37 per game, while the other two were 18, but averaged 20:32 and 20:06 per game, respectively. This is not to suggest that Bedard shouldn’t play this much. This Chicago team is geared for him to get opportunities and part of that is going to be the amount of ice time he receives.

#3 There is already a change on Bedard’s wing, though, as left winger Taylor Hall suffered an upper-body injury in the second game of the season at Boston. With Hall out, there will be a new opportunity on Bedard’s line. Ryan Donato is already having some success on Bedard’s wing, with two points (1 G, 1 A) and seven shots on goal while averaging 18:34 time on ice per game. Andreas Athanasiou got the first opportunity to take Hall’s spot so that could offer great potential for him, at least in the short term.

#4 Staying in Chicago for one more point, keep tabs on rookie defenceman Kevin Korchinski. The seventh pick in the 2022 Draft, Korchinski has averaged more than 20 minutes per game through his first two NHL contests and looks like he could be a building block for the Blackhawks. He is getting second unit power play time now, but it would not be out of the question to see Korchinski emerge as a first unit power play defenseman. The 19-year-old had 73 points (11 G, 62 A) in 54 games for Seattle of the WHL last season.

#5 Appearing in his first NHL game since December of 2021, Flyers centre Sean Couturier played 20:39 and had an assist. The 30-year-old is a legit No. 1 centre when he is healthy and, right now, that looks to be the case. Couturier is skating between Joel Farabee and rookie Bobby Brink to start the season, a great opportunity for Brink to play with a play-driving centre like Couturier.

#6 When he was traded from Edmonton to Nashville last season, there was real concern for fantasy managers that Tyson Barrie would lose out on prime power play minutes in Nashville. The presence of Roman Josi had the top power play defenseman role covered, but the Preds have opened this season by going with two defensemen on their top power play, meaning that Barrie still gets first unit power play time. Being on the first unit in Edmonton and Nashville offer different value, but getting first unit power play time will help to keep Barrie more appealing for fantasy managers and Barrie’s presence on the top unit appears to be coming at the expense of rookie winger Luke Evangelista, who has dropped to the second unit.

#7 With Alex Killorn departing as a free agent, there was an opening on the top power play unit in Tampa Bay and Nick Paul sure is making the most of his opportunity there. The third line centre for the Lightning scored a pair of power play goals in the season opener. While he scored a career-high 17 goals last season and had career highs of 32 points in each of the past two seasons, if Paul sticks on the top power play in Tampa Bay, he will surpass those numbers.

#8 One of the benefits for a young player moving from a powerhouse team to a rebuilding squad is that there is more opportunity available to them. That sure looks like the case for Alex Newhook, who scored a pair of goals in his debut with the Montreal Canadiens. Newhook, who averaged 13:46 of ice time per game in Colorado, played 16:46 in his first game for Montreal, skating on a line with Kirby Dach and Juraj Slafkovsky.

#9 He has only started one regular season game, but Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov looked shaky in allowing five goals to the Montreal Canadiens. He didn’t look stellar in his last preseason start against Detroit, either and, given the unpredictability of the goaltending position, it might be worth keeping Joseph Woll on your fantasy radar. Samsonov will have some leeway, but Woll has a .924 save percentage in 11 career starts, and that could help the 25-year-old get a look if Samsonov doesn’t get on track.

#10 When the Winnipeg Jets sent Pierre-Luc Dubois to Los Angeles in the summer, they received three forwards as part of the package and two of them, Gabe Vilardi and Alex Iafallo, started the season on Winnipeg’s top power play unit. Vilardi is not a stranger to the power play, having scored five times with the man advantage last season. He recorded seven shots on goal and played more than 21 minutes in his Jets debut at Calgary. Iafallo had seven power play goals for the Kings last season and scored in his first game for Winnipeg. It will be interesting to see if they stay there all season, but if Vilardi and Iafallo are getting first unit power play time, that should raise their offensive ceiling.

#11 Calgary Flames rookie winger Matt Coronato is also getting first unit power play time. The 13^th pick in the 2021 Draft, Coronato tallied 38 goals in 68 games through two seasons of college hockey at Harvard, but he sniped 48 goals in 51 games in his last season with Chicago of the USHL. Again, if Coronato can hold a place on Calgary’s No. 1 power play, he will have greater offensive potential as a result.

#12 With all the promising situations for young players getting first unit power pay time, it stands out that Columbus made sophomore winger Kent Johnson a healthy scratch in Blue Jackets’ season opener. Johnson is a wildly talented player who had 40 points (16 G, 24 A) in 79 games last season. The details of Johnson’s defensive game could surely improve, but for a rebuilding team, it is surprising to see a skilled young player get sent to the press box to start the season.

#13 There has been plenty of shuffling with Columbus’ forward lines. Last week, I wrote about Patrik Laine moving to centre and he remains there, with Johnny Gaudreau on the left side and now Cole Sillinger taking a turn on right side. Sillinger was the 12^th pick in the 2021 Draft and showed great promise, making the Blue Jackets that year and scoring 31 points (16 G, 15 A) in 79 games. Last season was a mess, however, and he ended up getting demoted to the AHL after managing just 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in 64 games. The chance to play with Laine and Gaudreau is a prime opportunity for Sillinger to get his career on track and he is still just 20!

#14 Columbus also lost defenseman Zach Werenski for 1-2 weeks with a quad contusion. Werenski has had major trouble staying healthy and that apparently continues. With Werenski hurt, Ivan Provorov got first crack at quarterbacking the Blue Jackets’ power play but that was really not Provorov’s strong suit in Philadelphia. He did have 16 power play points in the 2019-2020 season. If Provorov does not stick in that role, Adam Boqvist, Damon Severson or Jake Bean could all get a look, which speaks to how much Columbus would probably just prefer to have Werenski back there.

#15 Roope Hintz missed the season opener for the Dallas Stars, though head coach Peter DeBoer suggested that it was not a serious injury, and he would have played if it was a playoff game. That does not sound like Hintz will miss a lot of time but, while he is out, Tyler Seguin reaps the rewards, moving into Hintz’s first line centre spot and taking a turn on the Stars’ top power play unit.

#16 Minnesota Wild netminder Filip Gustavsson had a breakthrough season in 2022-2023, posting a .931 save percentage in 39 games. He followed that up with a 41-save shutout against Florida in his first start of the season, picking up where he left off. By the end of last season, Gustavsson had emerged as Minnesota’s best option between the pipes, and he is going to keep pushing for more action if he delivers like he did against the Panthers. Obviously, the more that Gustavsson starts, that would mean fewer starts for Marc-Andre Fleury.

#17 In the offseason, there was no team that looked to be in worse shape than San Jose for having a defenseman take a regular spot on its top power play. It should come as little surprise, then, that rookie Henry Thrun is getting a look in the quarterback role on San Jose’s top power play unit. Thrun had 31 points (7 G, 24 A) in 33 games at Harvard last season before adding a couple of assists in eight games for the Sharks. That does not indicate that he is surely going to quarterback San Jose’s power play into perpetuity, but he is getting the chance now.

#18 Playing his first game since suffering a torn ACL last season, San Jose’s Luke Kunin led Sharks forwards with 19:36 time on ice against Vegas. That seems rather high, but Kunin hovers around the fringes of fantasy relevance because he can score a little and is an active hitter – he had 223 hits in the 2021-2022 season – and if he is going to play that much, then he will move even closer to fantasy relevance.

#19 It looks like Shea Theodore is getting reps on the top power play unit for Vegas to start the season. Last season, Alex Pietrangelo received a little more power play time per game, and Theodore missed 27 games, so Pietrangelo had more power play time overall. However, Theodore had more power play time in the playoffs and, through a couple of games, looks like he is once again Vegas’ top power play option on the point.

#20 The Vancouver Canucks have reportedly given winger Conor Garland the go-ahead to seek a trade, which will not be easy given that he comes with a $4.95-million cap hit for two seasons beyond this one. Garland scored on opening night but played just 9:52 in an 8-1 rout over Edmonton but he was playing with Elias Pettersson, which isn’t going to hurt his value. Once Ilya Mikheyev returns from injury, that could leave Garland in a tough spot. He is a quality play-driving winger who has produced 98 points (36 G, 62 A) over the past two seasons.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – NASHVILLE PREDATORS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 19:58:08 +0000

NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 19: Nashville Predators center Thomas Novak (82) is shown during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Edmonton Oilers, held on December 19, 2022, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

Review: The Predators have rarely been listed among the main contenders for the Stanley Cup in any given year, but they have managed to stay consistently competitive, making the playoffs for eight straight campaigns from 2014-15 through 2021-22. They nearly reached nine consecutive seasons but came just short with their 42-32-8 record last year. Juuse Saros deserves most of the credit for keeping Nashville close. He’s one of the most reliable goaltenders in the world, and he stayed strong in 2022-23, posting a 33-23-7 record, 2.69 GAA and .919 save percentage in 64 contests. Consider that Nashville ranked 28th in 5-on-5 expected goals against (199.01), suggesting the Predators were among the league’s worst teams defensively and would have consequently been easy to score against if not for some stellar netminding. Saros’ role was even more important because Nashville didn’t do much offensively. None of the Predators reached the 60-point mark, though it didn’t help that Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and especially Roman Josi missed meaningful chunks of the season. The silver lining is Saros is just 28, and the Predators have two more seasons left at a team-friendly $5 million cap hit, so there’s still time to build around him.

What’s Changed? Deciding major turnover was necessary, Predators GM Barry Trotz bought out Matt Duchene’s contract and traded Ryan Johansen to Colorado. Nashville leveraged that freed cap space to ink top-six forwards Ryan O'Reilly and Gustav Nyquist. They also added defensive defenseman Luke Schenn, which might make life a little easier on Saros.

What would success look like? The Predators could absolutely make it back into the playoffs, but their push needs to start with another great campaign from Saros. Assuming they have that, an injury-free year out of Josi would do a lot to make up the rest of the gap. Meanwhile, it will be the first full NHL campaign for forwards Thomas Novak, Luke Evangelista and Juuso Parssinen, who could combine to make Nashville a significantly better team offensively than they were in 2022-23.

What could go wrong? Whenever a team relies so much on a single player, as Nashville does with Saros, the nightmare scenario is always an injury to said player. Although Nashville does have a sufficient backup in Kevin Lankinen, but being forced to rely on him for an extended period would be far from ideal. It’s also not clear how much offensive help O’Reilly and Nyquist will be. Both had up-and-down campaigns last year, so if Nashville was hoping to swap Duchene and Johansen for safer bets, they may end up disappointed.

Top Breakout Candidate: After scoring 17 goals and 43 points in 51 games last season, Novak is perhaps too easy of a choice, so instead let’s focus on one of his projected linemates, Evangelista. The 21-year-old also had an encouraging, albeit much shorter, stint with Nashville in 2022-23, contributing seven goals and 15 points in 24 contests. Evangelista also excelled in the AHL with 41 points in 49 outings and turned pro with plenty of offensive upside. He’s a big part of why Nashville has reason for optimism about the long-term outlook of its forward core.

Forwards

Filip Forsberg - LW

Looking to follow up a fantastic 42-goal season, Forsberg started off a little slow with only two goals in the first month of the season. He hit his stride over the winter, scoring at a point-per-game pace in November and December before a concussion in early February sidelined him for the rest of the season. Streaky scoring isn’t out of the ordinary for Forsberg, as he is the type of player who will run hot, and he was on-pace to match his typical season totals before getting hurt. Talent eventually shows through with most players, and he is the type you can always count on to go on a scoring tear at some point. Terrific at generating offense on his own, Forsberg is one of the most creative shooters in the league. He can test goalies despite being covered or tricking defenders by passing at the very last second to set up a breakaway or a lay-up goal for his linemates. He had fantastic chemistry with Matt Duchene in 2022 for this reason and while they struggled to repeat that last year, Forsberg still found a way to get on the scoresheet with a revolving door of linemates. His 42-goal campaign might have been an aberration, but at the end of the day the Preds will be happy with what they get out of Forsberg.

Ryan O’Reilly - C

Nashville shook up their forward corps this summer, shipping off veterans Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen and bringing in Ryan O’Reilly as their new centerpiece. Whether you’re a contending team or navigating a rebuild, O’Reilly is a good player to build your forward group around. He can handle the big minutes and the tougher matchups, which will make life easier for the Tommy Novaks of the roster. Nashville’s blue line will also benefit from him, as he acts like a third defenseman with how deep he plays in the zone and how good he is at starting breakouts. This along with his strength in making plays on his backhand are his calling cards. He has also made the most out of playing with some of the scraps in the St. Louis’ forward corps, as the more talented players were moved to more scoring lines. Last year he formed an excellent checking line with Josh Leivo and Brandon Saad. O’Reilly is the type of player whose line will usually dominate territorially even if they aren’t scoring a lot of goals, so this bodes well for what he can do in Nashville. Very high floor, but a lower ceiling than there used to be with him.

Tommy Novak - C

The former Minnesota Gopher might have been the best player in the second half of the season that you’ve never heard of (unless you’re a Nashville fan or a fantasy hockey player). Known primarily as a playmaker and a pass-first player, the 17 goals in 50 games Novak scored last year was one fewer than his career total in four years at college and more than he scored in any season in the AHL. It wasn’t the “playing out of the string” type of production either, as Nashville was fighting for a playoff spot in the second half and three of Novak’s goals were scored in overtime. He showed signs that he could be a good player during his first cup of coffee with the Preds. He has excellent hands and was very good at making safe plays to keep offensive zone shifts going. What changed last year was that he really started poaching for more offense and began shooting more. Some of that is from getting endless breakaway opportunities but he also worked his way into the slot to create his own shot instead of reverting to the point or passing it off to someone else. At 26, this was probably Novak’s last chance to prove he belongs in the NHL and to say he proved that is an understatement.

Gustav Nyquist - LW

Every team needs a player or two like Nyquist, a decent scoring forward who isn’t a top-liner but can keep up with your big dogs if you need someone to fill-in. Nyquist has that Swiss-Army Knife toolset where he can do just enough to help everyone his line without being the main driver of it, not being the first one on pucks, but usually being in the right spot to receive a pass or setup a give-and-go. Uses his stick well in the defensive zone and was a regular on Columbus’ aggressive penalty kill for years, scoring seven shorthanded goals in three years with Columbus. Had no real consistent linemates with the Jackets last year and didn’t see any action with Minnesota until the playoffs where he played on a line with Ryan Hartman. Doesn’t have the shot or the game-breaking skill to be the driver on his line, or a consistent offensive threat, but will pitch-in enough to help any line that he is on. Modern day utility player and a nice placeholder for the Preds.

Cody Glass - C

Spending all of 2021-22 in the AHL, Nashville made it a priority to fix Cody Glass’ development after getting him from Vegas. The former third overall pick had a rocky start in the NHL and his first full season with the Predators was a major step forward. Finding his way as a middle-six center, Glass seemed to find his niche as a goal-scorer and a net-front guy on the power play. Scoring six of his goals with the man advantage, Glass is more of the “goal/point vulture” mold right now, he hangs around the net most of his shifts and has slowly figured out the ins-and-outs of scoring a lot of dirty goals. He has terrific hands but slow feet, so this is a good way for him to make an NHL career. It makes him more of a secondary player on his line, as he doesn’t play with a lot of pace, or handle the puck much, but it’s also something you can work around since he will do the little things away from the puck. His defensive game was especially encouraging, always in the right spot in coverage to help generate easy exits. Great things were expected for Glass when Vegas took him with their first ever pick and a detour to Nashville seems to be just what he needed to get his career back on track.

Yakov Trenin - LW

Appropriately nicknamed “The Yak,” the Nashville winger is probably most known for being one of the only players to fight Zdeno Chara twice. What they might not know is that he’s become one of Nashville’s more reliable players since then. Scoring double-digit goals in back-to-back seasons, he found a home on what was dubbed “The Herd Line” by Preds fans. He was one of the straws that stirred the drink on that line because he is very direct in how he plays. He shoots the puck at every opportunity and will lay a shoulder into any player that is along the boards. The more skilled parts of his game showed out a little last year, carrying the puck into the zone more and surprising defenders with his puck-handling. He still doesn’t drift too far from his bread and butter, always hanging around or behind the net to set up shop in the offensive zone and being a nuisance to play against. Also, a fixture on Nashville’s penalty kill alongside Colton Sissons. Trenin should continue to be a regular middle-sixer for Nashville even with The Herd Line disassembled.

Denis Gurianov - RW

Dallas finally decided to cut bait with their former first round pick, sending him to Montreal in exchange for Evgenii Dadonov. Far removed from his 20-goal rookie campaign, Gurianov struggled to find the scoring touch after that and hasn’t found a niche in the other parts of the game. His last year in Dallas was his low point, with only two goals in 43 games. If you tuned into their games, you know it wasn’t for a lack of trying, as he averaged more shots per 60 minutes than almost any of their other forwards and the blistering one-timer is still there. Being able to get it on the net has been the issue and his game went from one-dimensional to zero-dimensional as a high-shot volume player who couldn’t score. A fresh start in Montreal helped for a pinch, scoring four goals in five games after the trade but they ultimately let him become a free agent. He brings some qualities that Nashville could use, especially as a triggerman for their second power play unit and someone who plays with a high-motor and will at least work hard in his minutes. It’s tough to say if he will get regular playing time with so many players from Milwaukee looking for full-time jobs too.

Colton Sissons - C

A hero from their 2017 Stanley Cup run, Sissons has been a mainstay in Nashville’s bottom-six for years, centering The Herd Line with Trenin and Jeannot. He was one of a few players that had their role increased last year due to injury, playing close to 19 minutes some nights and even getting some prolonged time with Filip Forsberg in the top-six at times. Sissons is typically the “next man up” for Nashville in these situations because of how reliable his game is as a defensive player and that he has the stamina to play bigger minutes if needed. Most of the time he has a pretty thankless role as the center who takes most of the defensive zone faceoffs and the main job is surviving the shift before even thinking about making a play with the puck. It’s a tough, but necessary role on most teams and you can do worse than Sissons. He usually finds a way to get to the 25–30-point range despite that, though. Last year was his highest goal total since 2019, as the extra ice-time allowed him to poach for more offense at times. He can also play the wing if needed, so should continue to be a fixture in Nashville’s lineup next year.

Phillip Tomasino - RW

After spending all of 2021-22 in the NHL, the former first round pick wasn’t called up to Nashville until February. This decision was met with the refrain of “it’s about time,” as he was a sleeper pick for some people last year. Not setting the world on fire but showing some flash as a playmaker and looking like he belonged in the NHL at the very least. His play down the stretch was more of the same, Tomasino getting more of a run in the top-six and showing some of that creativity that got him drafted so high. Why he was in the AHL for so long is tough to say. Either Nashville didn’t want to have one of their top prospects stuck as a checker or they felt his overall game needed more work. Regardless, it looks like he did enough to be on the opening night roster this year. He was a decent weapon on the second power play unit, setting up a lot of plays from the right faceoff circle and scoring a few “surprise” goals off deflections. The lack of goal-scoring and his spotty play-driving are legitimate concerns, but hopefully he will get a full-season to iron those out this time around.

Defense

Roman Josi - D

Following up a record-setting season is tough. Perhaps it’s even more difficult when someone on another team breaks your own record, which was the case for Nashville’s star defenseman. He was the first defenseman to top 90 points, something that hasn’t been done post-lockout, until Erik Karlsson scored 101-points this year. There wasn’t a lot that changed about his overall game this year except the puck went into the net less often, mainly on the power play where he had 13 fewer points. Josi was the same, roaming player he has always been, always looking to push for offense. Nashville’s forwards not scoring as many goals as they used to is what hurt his point total more than anything. The same passing plays he created in 2022 weren’t as freely available last year, so the points didn’t come as easily for him. The main difference for the Nashville captain this year was adjusting to a new partner in Ryan McDonagh, pairing him with another lefty for the first time in a while and someone who is a little tougher around the edges than Dante Fabbro. It made breakouts a little easier, as Josi didn’t have to go the full 200 feet to create offense and could get up in the play more with a steady partner back. Still projects to be the team’s best player for the upcoming season.

Tyson Barrie - D

Some players are a product of the situations they’re in and Tyson Barrie has been living his best life running the top of the umbrella of the Oilers power play. His vision and deception from the point made him a good fit for that spot, as he can do more than just distribute from the point and find the soft spots in the penalty kill. Nashville got to see glimpses of that during his audition with the team after the trade deadline. He’s also a decent goal-scoring threat for a defenseman, tallying 10 last season. He has some utility at 5-on-5 but was used primarily on the third pair during his final year with Edmonton, as he doesn’t handle forecheck pressure well and has trouble translating his strong puck-skills when the game gets quicker. Most of his value is attached to what he does on the power play, which was a lot with the Oilers. 54-percent of his points with Edmonton were with the man advantage. He could see a bigger role in Nashville but will have a tough time unseating Roman Josi as the team’s power play quarter back.

Ryan McDonagh - D

Few players deserved the “underrated” tag more than Ryan McDonagh in his prime. He did everything you want out of a top-pairing defenseman and could control 5-on-5 play better than almost anyone. As he has gotten older, he’s gotten less concerned with putting up points and more with taking care of his own zone first. He’s a strong skater still and will jump in for a splash play occasionally, but he’s not the one-man breakout he used to be. Pairing him with Josi made sense on paper, as McDonagh can still be effective with taking hits and killing the play along the boards so Josi can scoop the puck up, but there is only so much you can do as a defenseman playing this style. You’re making the first play, but everything else is out of your control, so the downside is you might have a season like McDonagh where you spend most of the time blocking shots and preventing damage in your own zone. There’s a role for these players, but it’s a taxing style on their bodies and McDonagh already has a lot of miles on his tires at 33-years old. His skating is still strong enough to keep him a viable option on the penalty kill and the top-four.

Alex Carrier - D

The young defenseman suffered two setbacks, first was having his season derailed by an injury, second was losing Mattias Ekholm, Carrier’s defense partner for most of his brief career. His game isn’t too different from top-pairing defensemen around the AHL or in other leagues, just needing a chance to finally get a chance in the AHL. He’s a good skater that uses his stick to disrupt plays without taking penalties and was a great fit for John Hynes’ system where the right defensemen step up in the neutral zone regularly. Very good with the puck even if it doesn’t translate to a lot of points, as exiting the zone with control is a strength of his. Could be in a tough roster situation this year with Nashville having four right-handed defensemen under contract and his regular partner now playing for another team. Mobility and willingness to play anywhere in the lineup should be enough to keep him a regular, although maybe with a different role depending on how the roster shakes out.

Goaltending

Juuse Saros - G

The Nashville Predators missing out on the postseason last year was hardly goaltender Juuse Saros’ fault. The undersized – but remarkably well-positioned and hard-to-shake – number one put up one of the league’s best performances last year, despite the raw numbers showcasing nothing more than an overworked (but better than average) starter on an underperforming team. No goaltender in the NHL made more saves above expected last year than he did, with the 28-year-old keeping his team not just in games, but close to the playoff hunt quite literally down to the bitter end. The Predators missed the postseason by a mere three points last year, and it’s hard to believe they would have been anywhere but the league basement without Saros’ steady presence in more than two-thirds of their games.

Of course, there’s only so long that the team can continue to trot out Saros for over sixty games a year. It’s hard to imagine they don’t want to split the workload more evenly, and there’s a chance that he’ll be able to take some breaths of relief with prospect Yaroslav Askarov looking more and more ready for regular NHL action. But ultimately. Saros is a smaller goaltender who has to rely on picture-perfect precision in his game to keep the team from backsliding; if they keep playing him with the kind of workload they’ve asked of him for the last few years, it’s hard to imagine it won’t start to show up in the form of fatigue errors before they’re ready to get Askarov into regular game action. The Predators have to find the balance between treating their current starter right and avoiding any kind of rush job for their goaltender of the future – and right now, they’re toeing that line a little too closely for comfort.

Projected starts: 60-65

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS EDMONTON OILERS – Oilers have been a freight train since the trade deadline, but return of Stone, team defense, make Vegas a tough out

Scott Cullen — Mon, 01 May 2023 22:30:22 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - NOVEMBER 19: Vegas Golden Knights Defenceman Nicolas Hague (14) clears the puck from Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) in the first period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Las Vegas Golden Knights on November 19, 2022 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

VEGAS vs. EDMONTON

After dispatching the Los Angeles Kings in six games in Round 1, the Edmonton Oilers head into a second-round matchup against the Pacific Division winning Vegas Golden Knights. The Golden Knights might have finished higher in the standings, but the Oilers are the team that is both favored to win the series, and one of the top favorites to capture the Stanley Cup.

The Oilers have been a freight train since the trade deadline, so it appears that they have momentum on their side, but the Golden Knights made short work of the Winnipeg Jets in the first round and are not likely to be an easy out.

Forwards

One of the benefits of having two superstars is that it is so difficult to shut down both. As ridiculous as it sounds, the Kings could have felt okay limiting Connor McDavid to three goals and 10 points in six games (a 41-goal and 137-point pace in 82 games) in the first round, but then Leon Draisaitl notched seven goals and 11 points in the series. They combined for 11 power play points in the first round.

The Oilers received four points against Los Angeles from wingers Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, Zach Hyman, and Klim Kostin. Edmonton’s depth forwards may not be scoring much, but they are controlling play. Edmonton controlled more than two-thirds of expected goals against Los Angeles when Kostin, Derek Ryan, Warren Foegele, and Ryan McLeod were on the ice.

For the Oilers to make a Stanley Cup run, they will need production from more than McDavid and Draisaitl, and it appears that they have enough quality depth to handle that responsibility.

The Golden Knights don’t have elite scorers like McDavid and Draisaitl, but there is still plenty of forward talent on hand.

Jack Eichel finally arrived in the playoffs, for the first time in his career, and he contributed three goals and five points with 17 shots on goal in five games against Winnipeg, a good start. Eichel’s line is not the most dangerous for the Golden Knights, though.

Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone both had eight points in the first round, and Brett Howden chipped in four points, while the trio controlled 60.7% of expected goals while outscoring Winnipeg 5-1 during five-on-five play.

Forward depth is a strong suit for the Golden Knights. William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith are proven performers, even though Marchessault managed just two assists in Round 1. Vegas has also received quality contributions from the likes of Michael Amadio, Ivan Barbashev and hard-hitting wingers Keegan Kolesar and William Carrier. The return of Carrier to the lineup bumped Phil Kessel to the press box for Game 5 against Winnipeg.

While Vegas looks like they might have an edge in forward depth, the question is whether that is going to be enough to overcome two of the most prolific scorers in the league.

Defense

When the Oilers moved out Tyson Barrie as part of the deal to acquire Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline, Evan Bouchard was the defender set up to step into a first unit power play role. While Bouchard and Ekholm were effective at evens against Los Angeles, controlling 54.7% of shot attempts and 51.4% of expected goals during five-on-five play. Bouchard kicked it up a notch on the power play, though, scoring eight of his 10 first-round points with the man advantage.

The Oilers outscored the Kings 5-2 when the pairing of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci were on the ice during five-on-five play, but Edmonton managed just 45.2% of shot attempts and 45.8% of expected goals in those situations, so there is some defensive vulnerability.

Brett Kulak, Vincent Desharnais, and Phillip Broberg round out the defense corps and all three had solid underlying numbers against the Kings. Desharnais was outscored 5-2, but that seems like randomness since the Oilers were controlling 62.8% of expected goals with Desharnais on the ice.

The Golden Knights used eight defensemen in Round 1, with Brayden Pachal and Ben Hutton getting into the lineup as injury replacements for Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb.

Alex Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez were the top pair against Winnipeg. The Golden Knights controlled 51.6% of expected goals and outscored the Jets 8-3 with that duo on the blueline. Theodore and McNabb both missed Game 5 against the Jets, but when they were on the ice together Vegas had 56.1% of the expected goals during five-on-five play against Winnipeg.

Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud are a strong third pairing for Vegas, when the team is healthy. They can move up the depth chart when Theodore and McNabb are out.

Vegas is a strong defensive team, allowing 2.78 all-situations expected goals against per 60 minutes, the third lowest rate in the first round.

Goaltending

Edmonton’s rookie netminder Stuart Skinner started all six games against the Kings in the first round, winning three. He was pulled after the first period in Game 4, with Jack Campbell stopping 27 of 28 shots to lead the Oilers to a pivotal victory. Skinner was an above average starter during the regular season but had a .890 save percentage against Los Angeles. If the Oilers are going to go on a Stanley Cup run, they will need better than .890 goaltending.

Even though he played just 11 games for the Golden Knights in the regular season, spending most of the year in the AHL after recovering from hip surgery, Laurent Brossoit was the clear starter in goal going into the series against Winnipeg, and Brossoit posted a .915 save percentage in five starts. He may not be one to steal too many victories, but solidly average goaltending can go a long way.

This is not a series in which either team can be supremely confident in their goaltending. Anything can happen with a goalie in the small sample of a playoff series, but the range of outcomes is practically infinite when it comes to relatively unproven options like Skinner and Brossoit.

Special Teams

Edmonton had a historically strong power play during the regular season, and it was even better in the first round against Los Angeles, ranking first among playoff teams with 20.96 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. This is an area where Edmonton’s elite talent takes over.

The Golden Knights power play ranked 10^th with 7.06 goals per 60 during five-on-four play in the first round. That comes after ranking 19^th in goals per 60 during the regular season, so there is a clear difference in quality between the two teams when they have the man advantage. This is standard for the Oilers, of course.

While Edmonton’s penalty killing ranked 11^th in the first round with 11.87 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play, the Golden Knights’ penalty kill was torched for five goals in 14:45 of four-on-five play (20.34 goals against per 60 minutes) against Winnipeg, the second worst rate in the first round of the postseason. Vegas allowed 85.42 shots against per 60 during four-on-five play in Round 1, the only team to surrender more than 70 shots against per 60. That’s a small sample, but it is ugly in a small sample.

If Vegas’ penalty killing is indeed a liability, then facing an Oilers power play that has been historically great figures to be an enormous problem.

Conclusion

Momentum is riding with the Oilers and even though they finished two points behind the Golden Knights in the standings, Edmonton had a better goal differential and had the league’s best record (17-2-1) after the trade deadline. That leads to Edmonton being favored even though Vegas holds home ice advantage.

Vegas has been an excellent defensive team and has been boosted by the return of Mark Stone for the playoffs. Is that enough to help them hold off the Oilers? It’s possible, but I’m still leaning towards the superstars carrying the series for Edmonton. Oilers in 6.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Injuries provide opportunities – Blues resurrecting careers in Blais, Vrana and Kapanen

Scott Cullen — Fri, 31 Mar 2023 16:02:32 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the 2022-2023 NHL season is winding down and there are opportunities available for a rookie defenseman like Jake Sanderson to step up and the St. Louis Blues have been working quite successfully on resurrecting the careers of some forwards, including Sammy Blais, Jakub Vrana, and Kasperi Kapanen.

OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 22: Ottawa Senators Defenceman Jake Sanderson (85) before a face-off during third period National Hockey League action between the Arizona Coyotes and Ottawa Senators on October 22, 2022, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Ottawa Senators rookie blueliner Jake Sanderson has had an excellent first season in the NHL and looks like he should see a big role in the final few weeks of the season. Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun are both out, which opens the door for Sanderson to see first unit power play time and extra ice time has resulted in more production for the freshman defenseman. Sanderson played a career high 27:49 against Philadelphia on Thursday and has played more than 23 minutes in 22 games this season, recording 11 assists in those games, including seven helpers with the man advantage.

ST. LOUIS, MO - FEBRUARY 28: St. Louis Blues left wing Sammy Blais (79) looks for a shooting lane during a game between the Seattle Kraken and the St. Louis Blues on February 28 2023, at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis MO (Photo by Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire)

#2 Seeing what he has been able to accomplish since returning to St. Louis, it feels like the New York Rangers might have missed out on the best of Sammy Blais, who was primarily a spare part in his time with the Blueshirts. In his past 12 games, Blais has 15 points (6 G, 9 A) and 53 hits, making him a hugely valuable fantasy contributor and one that is widely available.

#3 Cast aside by the Detroit Red Wings, Jakub Vrana is quickly re-establishing his credentials as a top goal scorer. He scored a goal in Thursday’s 5-3 win at Chicago, making it nine goals and 43 shots on goal in 13 games since he was acquired by the Blues. He now has 23 goals in 44 games since the start of last season.

#4 While we’re hanging out praise in St. Louis, might as well include right winger Kasperi Kapanen, getting another chance to play up in the lineup after his progress stalled in Toronto and Pittsburgh. The 26-year-old speedster has nine points (5 G, 4 A), with 20 shots on goal while playing more than 17 minutes per game, in his past eight contests. With Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich injured, Kapanen has even moved to the middle, playing center between Blais and Jordan Kyrou.

#5 Although he is not as dangerous as he was during his prime years in New Jersey, the Islanders’ Kyle Palmieri is providing much-needed offense for a team making a push to the playoffs. Since the trade deadline, Palmieri has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 30 shots on goal in 12 games. He is up to 15 goals in 49 games and the last time he had more in a season was when he scored 25 in 2019-2020, his last full season with the Devils.

#6 The Nashville Predators remain in the playoff hunt, but they are missing star defenseman Roman Josi, who has an upper-body injury. Fortunately for the Preds, newly acquired Tyson Barrie is helping to fill the role of puck-moving blueliner, contributing seven points (2 G, 5 A) while averaging more than 21 minutes of ice time per game in his past eight games. Barrie’s ice time had dipped the past couple of seasons in Edmonton, but he has spent most of his career logging 21+ minutes of ice time per game, so he can handle this responsibility.

#7 In what has mostly been a lost season, the Philadelphia Flyers can take some solace in the development of young players. One of those players that is rising to the forefront is 23-year-old center Morgan Frost, who has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 16 shots on goal in his pats eight games. He has landed in the middle of a line with Joel Farabee and Owen Tippett, players that should be part of the Flyers’ future, so it would make sense to feed them big minutes the rest of the way.

#8 Production tends to run hot and cold for Edmonton Oilers right winger Kailer Yamamoto, but he seems to have found his groove right now, skating on a line with Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane, which is admittedly a pretty good spot for point production. In his past seven games, Yamamoto has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 12 shots on goal. While he has just 24 points in 52 games this season, he did have a career-high 41 points in 81 games last season, so there is some untapped offensive upside in the diminutive 24-year-old winger.

#9 Finding productive fourth line scoring is a rarity in the National Hockey League, but it appears that the Seattle Kraken have a reliable source in Daniel Sprong. In his past 11 games, the 26-year-old winger has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 25 shots on goal, while averaging just 10:38 of ice time per game. Among players that have played more than 500 five-on-five minutes, Kraken teammate Jared McCann and Montreal’s Cole Caufield are the only ones that have scored at a higher rate than Sprong’s 1.57 goals per 60 minutes.

#10 One of my favorite players to recommend late in the season has been Arizona Coyotes center Barrett Hayton, who is thriving on a line with Clayton Keller. In his past 12 games, Hayton has 16 points (7 G, 9 A) and 33 shots on goal while averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game. It has taken some time since he was drafted fifth overall in the 2018 Draft, but Hayton’s emergence in the second half of this season should give the Coyotes confidence that he the 22-year-old pivot can be a part of the long-term solution for the franchise.

#11 Injuries have taken their toll on Montreal Canadiens right winger Brendan Gallagher, not only keeping him out of the lineup for extended periods, but also diminishing what he can contribute when he is available to play. Since returning from his latest turn on the injured list, though, Gallagher is looking healthy and has produced four points (3 G, 1 A) and 16 shots on goal in six games. The Habs are cobbling together a functional lineup at this point, with so many players hurt, but Gallagher is getting first unit power play time in addition to skating on a line with Jake Evans and Sean Farrell, the 2020 fourth-round pick who was just signed out of Harvard.

#12 For a defenseman who has never had 25 points in a season, Florida Panthers blueliner Radko Gudas still has a measure of fantasy value because he is a man with a particular set of skills. He hits and hits a lot. In his past 17 games, Gudas has a modest total of four assists, but he also has 90 hits, which works out to 5.3 hits per game. With 280 hits, he ranks third, just behind Luke Schenn (283) and Tanner Jeannot (281).

#13 The season has been undeniably rough for the Anaheim Ducks, but it is not going to get any better with Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry out of the lineup. Zegras is injured and Terry is staying in Anaheim due to the premature birth of his child. Isaac Lundestrom is getting first line duty at center but has gone 14 games without a point. If there is fantasy value to be found in the Ducks lineup, look to Jakob Silfverberg, who has four assists in his past five games, or Derek Grant, who has six points (2 G, 4 A) in his past 10 games. Okay, those are really only options for the deepest of leagues.

#14 With Buffalo Sabres star center Tage Thompson dealing with an upper-body injury, Casey Mittelstadt is getting a shot on the top line between Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch. Mittelstadt could stand to shoot the puck more often but does have four assists in his past six games, giving him a career high 44 points (10 G, 34 A) for the season.

#15 Since Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Carter Hart is dealing with a lower-body injury, that should mean more action for Felix Sandstrom and potentially Samuel Ersson, too. Sandstrom has not shown much in a backup role this season but does have a .900 save percentage in five starts since the trade deadline. Ersson has not played for the Flyers since allowing seven goals on 36 shots at New Jersey on February 25, but he had a few standout performances, too, including a 28-save shutout against Buffalo. Speaking of Buffalo, a better option for goaltending late in the season could be Devon Levi, who is set to make his debut for the Sabres on Friday. Levi was a seventh-round pick in 2020 but just wrapped up a college career in which he had a .942 save percentage in 66 games for Northeastern.

#16 Injuries have caught up to the San Jose Sharks, with Alexander Barbanov, Andreas Johnsson, and Evgeny Svechnikov all out of action. That has opened the door for Jacob Peterson, Martin Kaut, and Thomas Bordeleau to land top-six roles in the San Jose lineup. Peterson has three assists in four games since he was acquired from the Dallas Stars. Kaut, claimed off waivers from the Colorado Avalanche earlier in the season, has four points (2 G, 2 A) with 11 shots on goal in his past five games. Bordeleau recorded an assist in his first game of the season for the Sharks after tallying 41 points (22 G, 19 A) in 64 AHL games. None of these players look like stars, but they are getting a great opportunity at the end of this season to show that they belong in the league.

#17 The top two rookie scorers since the trade deadline play for the Arizona Coyotes. Matias Maccelli has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and is followed by Jack McBain, who has 10 points (3 G, 7 A). They have most recently been skating with Lawson Crouse on the second line in addition to sharing second unit power play time. Maccelli now ranks second among all rookie scorers this season, with 43 points (10 G, 33 A) in 57 games.

#18 Another rookie forward contributing late in the season is Buffalo’s J.J. Peterka, who has nine points (2 G, 7 A) and 18 shots on goal in his past nine games. He has been skating on a line with Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn, with the 22-year-old Cozens counting as the old vet on the line.

#19 Minnesota Wild winger Matt Boldy leads the NHL with 12 goals in 13 games since the trade deadline. His 0.92 goals per game ranks first, ahead of Clayton Keller and Leon Draisaitl (0.79), Matthew Tkachuk (0.77), Auston Matthews and Alex Ovechkin (0.75). When it comes to points per game, Draisaitl leads with 1.93 points per game (11 G, 16 A in 14 GP), followed by Connor McDavid (1.86), Tkachuk (1.69), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1.64), Cale Makar and J.T. Miller (1.62).

#20 Matthews has talked about how a hand injury had negatively impacted his production earlier in the season, but he sure seems to be firing on all cylinders now. Matthews has 67 shots on goal in 12 games since the deadline, an average of 5.58 per game, which leads the league. Before that, he was averaging 4.15 shots on goal per game, so that is a dramatic improvement, though it is admittedly skewed by his launching 15 shots on goal against Carolina on February 25. That is remarkable because the Hurricanes are, easily, the best team in the league when it comes to shot suppression, allowing an average of 25.7 shots against per 60 minutes. The rest of the shots per game leaders since the trade deadline: David Pastrnak (5.29), Viktor Arvidsson (4.75), Brady Tkachuk (4.71), Nathan MacKinnon (4.47), Jack Hughes (4.40), Matthew Tkachuk (4.38), Carter Verhaeghe (4.30), Sidney Crosby (4.21), and Jake Guentzel (4.14). Many of those names are to be expected, though Arvidsson and Verhaeghe are hanging in elite company. Crosby has clearly become more aggressive with his approach as the Penguins desperately cling to a playoff spot.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Rookies making their mark late in the season

Scott Cullen — Fri, 24 Mar 2023 15:36:20 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, rookies are making their mark late in the season. From Wyatt Johnston in Dallas to Joel Hofer in St. Louis to Luke Evangelista in Nashville, there are some fresh faces getting the job done. When it comes to the veterans, Mattias Ekholm and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are bringing late-season value, too.

BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 25: Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston (53) skates with the puck during a NHL game between Dallas Stars and Boston Bruins on October 25, 2022, at TD Garden in Boston, MA. (Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The leading rookie goal scorer is now Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston, who has taken on more responsibility for a division-leading team down the stretch. In his past 14 games, Johnston has 12 points (8 G, 4 A) and 37 shots on goal while playing more than 17 minutes per game. He has thrived skating in between veterans Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov and this looks like just the beginning for a 19-year-old who scored 124 points in 68 games for Windsor of the Ontario Hockey League last season.

#2 While the expectation seems to be that St. Louis Blues rookie goaltender Joel Hofer is getting some late season action to prepare for the backup role next season. It might be premature to decide that the 22-year-old is only suited for the No. 2 job. In four starts since getting called up, Hofer is rocking a .944 save percentage, so not only does he have potential dynasty league value, but he could add goaltending value late this season, too.

#3 After scoring 41 points (9 G, 32 A) in 49 games for Milwaukee in the AHL, Luke Evangelista is getting a late-season audition with the Nashville Predators, and he has taken full advantage of the opportunity. In a dozen games with the Preds, Evangelista has produced nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 30 shots on goal, earning a spot on the first power play unit and he played a career-high 20:28 in Thursday’s 2-1 shootout win against Seattle.

#4 When the Edmonton Oilers acquired Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline, the obvious appeal was Ekholm’s shutdown defensive play. However, Ekholm is not just putting it high and hard off the glass – he can make plays, too. In 11 games for the Oilers, Ekholm has put up nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 22 shots on goal. Mix in 18 hits and 19 blocked shots and the big blueliner is worthy of fantasy consideration.

#5 With Brock Nelson leaving Tuesday’s win over Toronto early and Mathew Barzal already out of the lineup, the Islanders need Jean-Gabriel Pageau to step up after returning from his own upper-body injury. Pageau missed more than a month of action and, upon getting back into the lineup, immediately embarked on a four-game point streak, scoring six points (2 G, 4 A) in the process.

#6 Veteran Calgary Flames center Mikael Backlund has 49 points, giving him a good chance to surpass his career high of 53 points set in 2016-2017. While points have run hot and cold at times for Backlund, he has become an elite shot generator in the second half of the season. In 35 games since the calendar flipped to 2023, Backlund has 30 points (10 G, 20 A) and 127 shots on goal, which ties him with Pittsburgh’s Jake Guentzel for 10^th in the league over that time.

#7 Another premier shot generator, who is still available in many league, Los Angeles Kings winger Viktor Arvidsson has put 49 shots on goal in his past 10 games, the highest per-game shot rate since February 28. Arvidsson is up to 48 points (20 G, 28 A) on the season, putting him within range of his first 50-point season since 2017-2018. He forms an effective two-way line for the Kings, skating alongside Phillip Danault and Trevor Moore.

#8 San Jose Sharks center Tomas Hertl is hardly flying under the radar, but mediocre goal and shot rates this season made him more readily available for fantasy managers. Late in the season, Hertl has become more aggressive offensively, and has contributed nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 36 shots on goal in his past 10 games. The Sharks are rather lean when it comes to forward talent, so Hertl is skating between Noah Gregor and Kevin Labanc, not exactly ideal linemates to maintain a high level of production. On the other hand, that might contribute to Hertl’s newfound willingness to shoot the puck.

#9 Evangelista is not the only Predators youngster contributing to the club’s surprising late push for the playoffs. Philip Tomasino has produced 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in his past 15 games, and has earned a regular spot alongside Cody Glass and Matt Duchene on one of Nashville’s scoring lines. Tomasino had 32 points with Nashville last season but started this season in the AHL, scoring 32 points (12 G, 20 A) in 38 games. It appears that the 21-year-old is better equipped to handle more offensive responsibility now.

#10 After tallying 20 points (9 G, 11 A) in 29 games for the Grand Rapids Griffins in the AHL, 32-year-old winger Alex Chiasson earned another shot in the NHL with the Detroit Red Wings. In 10 games for Detroit, Chiasson has seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 16 shots on goal – impressive production for a guy playing 11 minutes per game, but he is an effective net front presence on the power play, scoring four of his five goals with the man advantage.

#11 Evan Rodrigues has been a quality contributor for the Avalanche when healthy this season but, like many Avs, has had to deal with injuries. He has landed in concussion protocol this week, creating an opportunity for Denis Malgin to move up to Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. While Malgin has seven points (5 G, 2 A) in his past 10 games, the more important part is that he has played more than 15 minutes in the past two games. That is the first time since January 2 that he has hit that ice time threshold.

#12 At his best, Washington Capitals right winger Tom Wilson can be a fantasy hockey difference maker. This season, he missed a bunch of time while recovering from a torn ACL and struggled upon returning to action, but he is getting back to peak performance. In his past 16 games, Wilson has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 38 shots on goal. Of course, being Tom Wilson, he also has 42 hits and that is what makes him a major fantasy threat and worth adding if he is still available in your league.

#13 Vegas Golden Knights right winger Pavel Dorofeyev got into three games in December but did not find the scoresheet before returning to the AHL. Since getting called back up, he has delivered six points (4 G, 2 A) with 16 shots on goal in six games. He only had 17 points (9 G, 8 A) in 32 AHL games, so it is fair to be skeptical of Dorofeyev’s small sample NHL production, but he is getting a quality opportunity, skating on Vegas’ second line with Reilly Smith and William Karlsson.

#14 When Kirill Kaprizov was injured, I speculated that veteran Marcus Johansson might have an opportunity to play a bigger role for the Minnesota Wild and that has turned out to be the case. In his past seven games, Johansson has eight points (2 G, 6 A) and has played more than 15 minutes in six of those contests. He is thriving on a line with Joel Eriksson Ek at center and Matt Boldy on right wing, which presents a strong opportunity for the veteran left winger to contribute offensively.

#15 It can be easy for Boston Bruins center Charlie Coyle to get overlooked as he is not a star player and falls behind bigger names on the depth chart. Nevertheless, the 31-year-old center is finishing strong, with 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in his past 11 games and he is doing this without a regular role on the power play, playing with Tyler Bertuzzi and Trent Frederic at evens, a line that can have a physical impact on the game before they even worry about putting pucks in the net.

#16 When the Vancouver Canucks acquired defenseman Filip Hronek at the trade deadline, he was dealing with an upper-body injury, but he was finally cleared to play Thursday night against San Jose. He logged 24:25 of ice time in his first game for the Canucks and while Hronek did not record a point, he is clearly going to play a big role for Vancouver for the rest of this season and beyond. That said, he is limited to quarterbacking the second power play unit because Quinn Hughes has been one of the most productive defensemen on the power play in the past two seasons, recording a league-leading 60 power play assists in 143 games.

#17 With Nashville defenseman Roman Josi out of the lineup due to injury, there is a big opportunity for newly acquired Tyson Barrie. The veteran puck-moving defenseman has three assists in his past five games, while averaging nearly 23 minutes of ice time per game. The past two seasons in Edmonton were the first since 2013-2014 that Barrie had averaged less than 20 minutes of ice time per game, so he is not new to handling big minutes on the blueline.

#18 Although he is splitting starts with Pheonix Copley, Joonas Korpisalo has become more valuable for fantasy managers since his trade to the Los Angeles Kings because he actually wins games. In his first four starts for L.A., Korpisalo has a 3-0-1 record with a .921 save percentage and 1.96 goals against average. It is fair to be skeptical about Korpisalo, given the ups and downs of his career, but this has been the best season of the 28-year-old netminder’s career.

#19 Digging deeper for goaltending help, New Jersey has been giving Akira Schmid more starts and he has posted a .930 save percentage in seven appearances since getting recalled from the AHL. The 22-year-old has a .910 save percentage in 58 AHL games over the past two seasons, so he may be ready for the NHL, and these early returns are very promising. While starter Vitek Vanecek appears to be bouncing back lately, he went through a five-game stretch during which he had a .821 save percentage, so that gave the Devils some incentive to look for other options between the pipes.

#20 With injuries taking Sam Bennett and Anthony Duclair out of the Florida Panthers lineup, look to Eetu Luostarinen, who has earned a bigger role in the second half of the season and has stepped into the second line center role between Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk. Luostarinen has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 26 shots on goal in his past 13 games and played more than 20 minutes in Thursday’s loss to Toronto. It was the third time this season that Luostarinen had crossed that 20-minute threshold.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Key trade deadline moves with fantasy impact

Scott Cullen — Fri, 03 Mar 2023 23:17:52 +0000

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 02: New York Rangers Left Wing Artemi Panarin (10) and New York Rangers Right Wing Patrick Kane (88) talk during the National Hockey League game between the Ottawa Senators and the New York Rangers on March 2, 2023 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week brought a flurry of trades even before Friday’s NHL Trade Deadline and then not so much on deadline day. Nevertheless, here is a look at the potential impact of the most significant moves, including Patrick Kane, Timo Meier, Jakob Chychrun, Shayne Gostisbehere, Tyler Bertuzzi and many more.

#1 When the New York Rangers traded for Vladimir Tarasenko, it looked like Patrick Kane might not get his wish to end up on Broadway. Kane re-ignited trade interest by putting up 10 points (7 G, 3 A) in his last four games with the Blackhawks and he should be productive in New York, where he will have a stronger supporting cast and is re-united with former Blackhawks linemate Artemi Panarin. Overall, this probably improves Kane’s value down the stretch but his strong finish in Chicago ensures that he won’t be any kind of buy-low bargain for fantasy managers.

#2 A shot generating beast, Timo Meier was acquired by the New Jersey Devils from the San Jose Sharks and while he is recovering from an upper-body injury, there is an excellent opportunity awaiting him with the Devils. Whether he ends up with either Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes as his center, Meier is going to be in position to keep producing at an elite level. He had 31 goals in 57 games with San Jose, averaging a career-high 4.47 shots on goal per game. As for the Sharks, they will offer a bigger role for Fabian Zetterlund, who had 20 points (6 G, 14 A) in 46 games for New Jersey and Andreas Johnsson, who has been stuck in the minors for most of the season and had 30 points (9 G, 21 A) in 36 AHL games, but they would only hold appeal in the deepest of leagues.

#3 The Ottawa Senators landed one of the most sought-after defensemen with the addition of Jakob Chychrun from the Arizona Coyotes. Chychrun has had trouble staying healthy throughout his career but has also been very productive when he is on the ice. Since 2018-2019, among defensemen that have played at least 200 games, Chychrun ranks sixth with 0.19 goals per game (49 goals in 256 games) and seventh with 2.73 shots on goal per game. The question is whether Chychrun has a chance to supplant Thomas Chabot on Ottawa’s top power play unit. In Arizona, Juuso Valimaki is set to take over as the full-time quarterback on the Coyotes power play. He has 10 assists, including five with the man advantage, in the past 11 games.

#4 One of the reasons that Valimaki is the new No. 1 option on the Arizona blueline is that, in addition to trading Chychrun, the Coyotes dealt puck-moving defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere to Carolina. Gostisbehere will get regular power play time with the Hurricanes and given Carolina’s five-on-five dominance, he should see an uptick in production at even strength, too. The Hurricanes also acquired right winger Jesse Puljujarvi from Edmonton. While Puljujarvi is probably more of a long-term project, who arrives with 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in 58 games, he did score 29 goals in 120 games over the previous two seasons. He has been a strong play-driving winger, which fits in Carolina, but Puljujarvi may also have some untapped offensive potential, too.

#5 With long-term injuries hitting wingers Taylor Hall and Nick Foligno, the Boston Bruins wasted no time in dealing for Tyler Bertuzzi from the Detroit Red Wings. Bertuzzi was an attractive commodity on the trade market even though he had just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 29 games for Detroit. He was scoring on a career-low 6.5% of his shots, with a 7.8% on-ice shooting percentage, so he is probably due for some positive regression when it comes to his percentages. With Bertuzzi departing Detroit, Dominik Kubalik moved back up to the Wings’ top line.

#6 Power forward Nino Niederreiter landed with the Winnipeg Jets after scoring 28 points (18 G, 10 A) in 56 games for the Nashville Predators. Niederreiter is a six-time 20-goal scorer and should have a good opportunity to produce down the stretch for Winnipeg. He played more than 18 minutes in his first game for the Jets, something Niederreiter did in 11 of 56 games for the Predators. While Nashville has made several changes, one of the more notable moves was to call John Leonard up from the AHL, where he had 32 points (11 G, 21 A) in 52 games for Milwaukee. Leonard scored in his first game for the Preds, skating on a line with Cody Glass and Matt Duchene.

#7 After scoring 24 goals as a rookie last season, Tanner Jeannot was snakebit for most of this season in Nashville, scoring just five goals and 14 points in 56 games. He also had 213 hits and can drop the gloves, if need be, so he can have an impact without scoring, but the Tampa Bay Lightning will try to rekindle Jeannot’s touch around the net. He is skating on the third line with Ross Colton and Nick Paul, a line that should be tough to play against. With Jeannot gone, Cole Smith has joined Colton Sissons and Yakov Trenin on Nashville’s checking line.

#8 One more deal for Nashville, as they sent Mikael Granlund to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Granlund had 36 points (9 G, 27 A) in 58 games for the Preds, and has three seasons in his career with more than 60 points, so he has the skill to be a productive contributor. At the same time, it is not like he is stepping into a big role with the Penguins. In his first game for Pittsburgh, Granlund played mostly with Jeff Carter and Danton Heinen, which is not the best spot for putting up points. Granlund’s departure from Nashville does open up room for a scoring winger and recently called up right winger Philip Tomasino has a chance to take advantage of that situation. Tomasino had 32 points (12 G, 20 A) in 38 AHL games before getting called up and has five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games since his promotion.

#9 The Vancouver Canucks made one trade with an eye to the future and one that is more geared to the present. First, they sent checking winger William Lockwood to the New York Rangers for Vitali Kravtsov, a 23-year-old winger who had fallen out of favor with the Blueshirts after managing six points (3 G, 3 A) in 28 games. Kravtsov might have some long-term upside but is not likely to offer fantasy value this season. Vancouver’s other major deal involved the addition of Filip Hronek from the Detroit Red Wings. Hronek is a 25-year-old right shot defenseman who has already tied his career high with 38 points (9 G, 29 A) in 60 games. However, 16 of those 38 points have come on the power play and it would seem unlikely that Hronek would get first unit power play time ahead of Quinn Hughes in Vancouver. Hronek’s departure does open up more of an opportunity on the power play for Detroit’s sophomore blueliner Moritz Seider, who started slowly, but has 18 points (2 G, 16 A) in his past 23 games.

#10 The St. Louis Blues continued to sell off veteran talent, dealing versatile forward Ivan Barbashev to the Vegas Golden Knights. Barbashev had a career-high 60 points in 2021-2022 and is not likely to get to that level again, but had 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 59 games for St. Louis before the trade. Barbashev is getting an excellent opportunity in Vegas, skating on the top line with Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault, so Barbashev is worth tracking in his new location. St. Louis has overhauled a lot of their forward group, but waiver pickup Kasperi Kapanen is looking at a better role than he had in Pittsburgh. Kapanen had 20 points (7 G, 13 A) in 43 games for the Penguins, but was playing just 12 minutes per game. He will play more than that in St. Louis and is getting a look alongside Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich.

The Blues picked up a winger desperately in need of a fresh start. Jakub Vrana was traded from Detroit to St. Louis and the 27-year-old winger spent some time in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program this season. He had just two points (1 G, 1 A) in five games for the Red Wings as well as 11 points (6 G, 5 A) in 17 AHL games. However, when he was not injured or otherwise out of the lineup Vrana did score 22 goals in 42 games with Detroit, so there is obvious upside for a team like St. Louis, that is not looking for a full rebuild, but a quick turnaround instead. Tread cautiously with adding Vrana for this season but see what kind of opportunity he gets with the Blues and expect that he will have sleeper value next season.

#11 The Edmonton Oilers bolstered their roster with the additions of defenseman Mattias Ekholm from Nashville and center Nick Bjugstad from Arizona. Ekholm is a defensive standout, but is a capable puck mover, too, and has recorded more than 30 points in five different NHL seasons. Tyson Barrie went to Nashville in the Ekholm deal and going from Edmonton’s power play to Nashville’s power play is going to be a shock to the system. Edmonton has scored 12.50 goals per 60 during five-on-four play, easily the best in the league, while Nashville has scored 6.34 goals per 60, ranking 24^th. Barrie scored 28 of his 43 points with the man advantage and will be replaced on the Oilers power play by Evan Bouchard, who has been able to generate points at evens, but has 14 of his 70 career points on the power play. Since the Oilers’ power play is driven more by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, Bouchard should benefit from the new role. Bjugstad had 13 goals and 23 points in 59 games for Arizona, but he is likely to fill a bottom six role with the Oilers, so should not bring much fantasy value.

#12 The Los Angeles Kings, feeling like contenders, upgraded their defense and goaltending in a trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets, acquiring blueliner Vladislav Gavrikov and netminder Joonas Korpisalo, while sending goalie Jonathan Quick to Columbus. Gavrikov tallied a career-high 33 points last season but has just 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in 52 games this season, so he does not offer much fantasy appeal. Korpisalo, however, is looking at the opportunity to start for a team that is headed to the playoffs. Over the course of his career, Korpisalo has mostly been a below average goaltender, but he had a .919 save percentage in his last 17 games for Columbus and that is good enough for him to count as an upgrade for a Kings team that needed AHL call-up Pheonix Copley to save their season. Quick was reportedly not happy about the deal to Columbus and was then flipped to the Vegas Golden Knights. With Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit injured, Vegas could use someone to back up behind Adin Hill. Quick had a .876 save percentage in 31 games for the Kings, which would be a career-low mark for the 37-year-old goaltender. All of this is to say that Quick does not offer much for fantasy managers at this stage of his career.

#13 The Toronto Maple Leafs continued their active ways, dealing defenseman Rasmus Sandin to the Washington Capitals for Erik Gustafsson and a first-round pick. Sandin has a chance to play a substantial role in Washington for the rest of this season and beyond. With John Carlson injured, and Gustafsson heading to Toronto, Sandin is looking at a prime situation in which he can quarterback Washington’s first power play unit. Gustafsson, who had scored 11 of his 38 points with Washington while on the man advantage, is tied for 15^th among defensemen with 27 even-strength points. However, Toronto’s blueline looks awfully crowded so, barring a sudden change, Gustafsson is likely to fall into a depth role, virtually eliminating his fantasy appeal. Toronto also added defensemen Jake McCabe and Luke Schenn, as well as center Sam Lafferty, any of whom might help Toronto’s plans to add grit for the postseason, but none of them look like fantasy contributors.

#14 The Dallas Stars acquired Evgeni Dadonov from the Montreal Canadiens, sending Denis Gurianov the other way. The Stars also brought in center Max Domi from the Chicago Blackhawks. Dadonov is a skilled veteran winger who had a shooting percentage of 5.6% and on-ice shooting percentage of 6.6% for the Habs, both of which are likely to get a natural lift – he’s due! Dadonov has three points (1 G, 2 A) and eight shots on goal in three games for the Stars, skating on a line with Jamie Benn and Wyatt Johnston. Gurianov had just two goals in 43 games for Dallas, but he scored 20 goals in 2019-2020, so there is some upside there and the Habs have the time to draw it out of him. Gurianov scored a goal in his second game for Montreal and played more than 17 minutes in his first two games for the Canadiens, a threshold he had not hit this season in Dallas. Domi wrapped up his tenure with the Blackhawks by scoring 14 points (4 G, 10 A) with 29 shots on goal in his last eight games. He has 49 points, his most in a season since scoring 72 points in 2018-2019. He will be in more of a supporting role with Dallas, so while he may contribute in Dallas, his fantasy value has probably peaked already. With Domi gone, 2020 first-round pick Lukas Reichel has been promoted from the AHL, where he had 46 points (17 G, 29 A) in 51 games for Rockford. Reichel has stepped into Domi’s spot, centering Chicago’s top line between Andreas Athanasiou and Philipp Kurashev.

#15 The Minnesota Wild made some modest deals to improve their forward depth before making bigger deals at the deadine. First, they added Gustav Nyquist from the Columbus Blue Jackets and Marcus Johansson from the Washington Capitals. Nyquist is injured, but should be healthy by the time the playoffs roll around and he is a competent scoring middle six winger. Johansson could have a little fantasy sleeper value. He had 28 points (13 G, 15 A) in 60 games for Washington, but started his second stint with the Wild by playing more than 16 minutes while skating on a line with Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy.

The Wild then added defenseman John Klingberg from Anaheim, where he had 24 points (8 G, 16 A) in 50 games, and just going to a better team ought to help Klingberg’s production. Will he step into the Wild’s top power play unit? The Wild rank 10^th with 8.18 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, but rookie defenseman Calen Addison is the top-scoring power play defenseman for the Wild and he has been a healthy scratch recently.

Minnesota also shipped winger Jordan Greenway to Buffalo, but he had just seven points (2 G, 5 A) in 45 games. Greenway produced a career-high 32 points (6 G, 26 A) in 56 games in 2020-2021, but has typically not scored enough to matter for fantasy purposes. The Wild replaced Greenway on the roster with Oskar Sundqvist, who had 21 points (7 G, 14 A) in 52 games for Detroit. Of all these additions by the Wild, Klingberg is the only one with widespread fantasy appeal.

#16 Although he played just 13 minutes per game for the Toronto Maple Leafs, lanky winger Pierre Engvall could have a better situation waiting for him with the New York Islanders, at least in the short term. With injuries up front, the Isles have Engvall starting out with Anders Lee and Bo Horvat on the top line. It’s worth giving him a look. In 21 games this season in which Engvall played more than 14 minutes, he contributed seven goals and four assists.

#17 With the deals covered, there are still some players that are heating up and worth adding, starting with the Devils’ Dawson Mercer. The second year forward has scored a goal in seven straight games, putting up 14 points (9 G, 5 A) with 22 shots on goal. He has a good thing going on a line with Nico Hischier and Tomas Tatar.

#18 Carolina’s second year right winger Seth Jarvis has returned to the top line, alongside Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. He has seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past six games and his increased shot rate makes it easier to buy him as a scoring threat down the stretch.

#19 Trying to recapture last season’s magic, when Ryan Hartman had a career high 34 goals and 65 points the Minnesota Wild have re-united Hartman with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello on the top line. Hartman has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past seven games.

#20 Scoring Buffalo’s only goal in Thursday’s 7-1 loss at Boston, Casey Mittelstadt is on a tear, with 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past 10 games. That shot rate is concerning when it comes to sustaining his offensive production, but Mittelstadt is up to a career high 38 points (10 G, 28 A) in 60 games and that warrants consideration in deeper leagues.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – EDMONTON OILERS – NHL Player Profiles

Corey Sznajder – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 16:11:28 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 19: Edmonton Oilers Center Leon Draisaitl (29) uses his speed to track down a loose puck in the first period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the New Jersy Devils on March 19, 2022 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Connor McDavid

The scary thing about McDavid’s 2021-22 season is that he was relatively unlucky when it came to shooting luck and he still finished with 123 points. The game comes so easy for him that it’s rare for the Oilers not to get at least one scoring chance per shift with him on the ice, so an average shooting year for him is a career season for most. It was an interesting season or him. He was still an elite player at creating off the rush but didn’t have the scale breaking stats like the previous year. Instead, he was deferring to teammates on entries and trailing the rush instead of leading it. Still having an elite impact on driving offense and making up for any lost ground on the power play, where his 44 points were more than some team’s entire goal total with the man advantage. There was also an effort to improve his play away from the puck, as he had the Oilers playing less run-and-gun and more of a full-rink press. Keeping play in the offensive zone and deferring to someone else or making the simple play instead of trying to force things. He could still break the game open if he needed to, as most saw in the playoffs where he dragged the Oilers to the Conference Finals on his own. That version of McDavid is still present, but the Oilers are getting to the point where they don’t need him to go into superstar mode every night to win.

Leon Draisaitl

Accuracy is the name of the game for Draisaitl regardless of he’s passing or shooting the puck. A selective but lethal shooter, Draisaitl’s 55 goals would have led the league most in most seasons and he matched it with 55 assists. He’s a selective, but lethal shooter who will turn low-percentage plays into high-danger plays. Most scorers will look to find the “soft” area in the defense and with Draisaitl, that area extends all the way to the boards, as he can beat goaltenders from some awkward and impossible angles. Arguably the best player in the league at doing this not named Sidney Crosby. His passing is just as good, excelling at pulling pucks off the boards, threading the needle between defenders and turning 50/50 puck battles into scoring chances. Style points don’t count but the degree of difficulty of Draisaitl’s playmaking is something to behold. He passes the puck off his backhand as hard as some players shoot it and he usually finds the tape. It’s how he’s been able to put up ridiculous scoring numbers every year despite his team getting outshot and outchanced while he is on the ice. The deceptive nature of his game also makes the Oilers power play click because he can score from just about anywhere in the zone and find someone open for a deflection chance even if they’re covered. Now that he's playing center full-time (when healthy), he gives Edmonton the most explosive one-two punch in the NHL.

Zach Hyman

The Oilers had certain expectations for Zach Hyman when they signed him to a seven-year contract. They wanted him to be McDavid’s wingman, score on a lot of rebounds and provide a forechecking presence to a team that lacked it. Hard to not be pleased with his first year. He scored 27 goals and was a great third wheel on McDavid’s line for most of the year and giving the Oilers penalty kill a counter-attacking dynamic with five shorthanded points. The calling card with Hyman has always been forechecking and scoring “ugly” goals, usually scoring by circumstance instead of getting to the net. It’s an important quality to have on your top line, as the Oilers found out in the playoffs where Hyman had 11 tallies, three of them coming on the power play. Finding a running mate for McDavid has been long-term problem for McDavid and while it cost them, Hyman filled this void in his rookie year. His play away from McDavid is a bit of a concern, as he was underwater in terms of scoring chance and goal differential when he wasn’t on a line with the Oilers captain. It’s not a surprise given the Oilers forward depth issues, but Hyman is a good forechecker with decent puck skills and should be able to drive his own line if push comes to shove. This will be more of a concern when he’s deeper into his contract but for now, he is set to have another good year as McDavid’s wingman.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

The remaining member of the Oilers old core, RNH is the most plug-and-play type of guy the Oilers have right now. Whether you put him in the middle, on the wing, with McDavid or in the middle-six, he’s going to play his role and give you a high floor with what he brings. That said, he spent most of the year on Draisaitl’s wing and the Oilers had a tough time keeping the puck out of their own net while that line was on the ice. A mid-season line switch moved RNH to essentially a third line center role and he excelled as a checker, providing a stabilizing presence in the Oilers bottom-six and keeping the team’s heads above water while their two money maker lines did their thing. It’s a tough way to use a center making over $5 mil., but RNH’s defensive game has value. He is one of their best forwards at retrieving pucks to exit the zone and the Oilers desperately need to win the minutes where their two stars aren’t on the ice. He made up for his lack of 5v5 offense on the power play, recording 22 assists with the man advantage and playing a variety of roles. His versatility makes him a valuable player but a tough one to project due to the volatile nature of the Oilers lineup. They will continue to feed him power play and penalty kill minutes, though.

Jesse Puljujarvi

It’s hard to believe how much of a lightning rod the former third overall pick was for Oilers discourse last year. Puljujarvi played a very similar game to Zach Hyman as a complementary player for McDavid, he just didn’t finish on as many of his chances, which unfortunately was his major drawback. No Oilers player was on the receiving end of more high danger passes than Puljujarvi and he scored only nine five-on-five goals on 140 scoring chances. Puck skill is one of the more frustrating parts of his game, as he will often skate himself out of room when he gets a good chance from close range or just mishit the puck, turning a high danger chance into one that’s easier to stop. It only takes one good year to change this narrative, though and it’s better to have a topliner who is producing chances and not finishing than doing neither. Aside from that, Puljujarvi is coming off a fantastic year, as the Oilers were a dominant team when he was on the ice. Part of it is the McDavid effect, but “JP” has come a long way as a defensive player, always in a good position to help retrieve pucks to get McDavid the puck in space or being a nuisance on the forecheck to keep their top line on the ice. If the goal-scoring ever comes around, the Oilers top-six will be a force.

Kailer Yamamoto

A high-motor player who will never cheat you on effort, Yamamoto had a decent bounce-back year after a disappointing sophomore campaign. He scored 20 goals for the first time in his career was a Swiss Army Knife type of winger for the Oilers, moving around the lineup filling whatever niche the coaching staff needed. While productive, his impact has been a little inconsistent, as he’s had a tough time driving play despite his strengths with recovering pucks and his willingness to go to the net. Part of that is because he doesn’t produce much offense in volume, posting one of the lowest shot rates on the Oilers and going stretches of games where he didn’t even test the goalie. Playing so much with McDavid and Draisaitl, he might have some hesitance to taking the reins on his line, deferring to the more talented players while assuming the worker bee role he’s had for most of his career. It’s tough to say if this is what was going on with Yamamoto, but he showed in the playoffs that he can drive a line, being a forechecking menace in the Calgary series and starting most of the plays with Nugent-Hopkins as his center. Seeing that reminds you that there is another level he can reach as a player even if he is in a pretty good spot now.

Ryan McLeod

Every prospect has different expectations. For Ryan McLeod, the Oilers only needed him to hold down a third- or fourth-line spot while being a neutral in terms of driving-play or suppressing goals. His impressive AHL production carrying over was secondary. His quickness gives the Oilers depth a different element from previous years, as it was rare for their third or fourth line to try and push the pace in past years. Also made him useful with covering up for the Oilers lack of mobility on their blue line, you would see him retrieve pucks for breakouts more often than their defense, even leading the rush on some shifts. The year was a grind for him, Edmonton struggled to find consistent linemates and McLeod would have to play a lot of one-man shifts where he would go from one end to the other without much payoff in the offensive zone. It was the role he needed to play, keeping the scoreboard from changing during stretches where the game becomes a slog. He is an example of how a skilled prospect can use those tools outside of creating offense because you still need to skate and connect the dots to keep the puck out of your own zone.

Evander Kane

Fresh off a buyout with the Sharks, Kane showed the Oilers that he can still score goals, tallying 22 in his 43-game stint and 13 more in 15 playoff games. Getting the “McDavid bump” on top of a career best shooting percentage, Edmonton re-signed him for four years in hopes that a full season can give McDavid a long-term solution on the wing. It’s tough to say if he can repeat this next year, as Kane has always been a shot-volume player who converts on a low percentage of his chances. The playmaking of McDavid might fix that, but line combos are always subject to change throughout the year. It’s a little concerning because 10 of his 5v5 12 five-on-five goals came while he was on a line with McDavid. By comparison, he scored only one five-on-five goal with Draisaitl centering him, which should give fantasy player some concern if the Oilers juggle their lines. His limited play-driving and passing skills make Kane a very one-dimensional player whose value is going to be determined by his goal-total, so this is a boom-or-bust signing for Edmonton.

Warren Foegele

The former Erie Otters star spent most of the year playing wing on the fourth line with his ex-Carolina teammate in Derek Ryan with some penalty killing duty thrown in. Last year was the first time it looked like he accepted his role as a grinder in the NHL, as he was still in the prospect mindset with Carolina. He had such a hot start to his NHL career that you would see him try to recapture that, making a lot of high-risk plays every shift and trying to make plays that he didn’t have the hands or precision to finish off at this level. With Edmonton, he looked a little more comfortable in his skin as a checking line player. Playing a straight-line game, not looking to carry the puck in much at all and relying more on his tenacity and forechecking to create an impact than making any plays. The result were decent impacts at five-on-five, but nothing spectacular. He also saw some power play time on the second unit, playing the netfront role and having a few pucks go off him for goals. There was more offense to Foegele’s game at one point, but this seems to be the role he has settled into for now.

DEFENSE

Evan Bouchard

Only 22 years old with the face of a grizzled veteran, Bouchard was a major lifeline for the Oilers defense. He is the prototype of what most teams look for in a young defenseman, standing over six feet tall with great puck skills and a big shot from the point, and Edmonton didn’t hold him back from showcasing this in his first full season. He carried most of the offensive load at five-on-five on their blue line, emerging as their best passer on breakout and when making plays in transition, and his shot gave defenders another thing to worry about when defending McDavid’s line. Edmonton is going to be a team that thrives on quick-strike offense, so Bouchard’s play in this area is a huge development for them, especially when it comes to leading counterattacks. His aggressive playing style did hurt him at times. He was very aggressive with stepping up at the blue line or going for a poke-check. It resulted in him negating some rushes, but he also got burned just as much. It’s an area of his game that’s fixable, especially if he’s paired with a reliable partner like Brett Kulak, and you want a guy like Bouchard to push the pace when he can. They will look to find a happy medium between the two extremes next year.

Tyson Barrie

Relegated to third pair duty, Barrie’s main purpose on the Oilers is to get the puck to McDavid or Draisaitl on the power play and not get destroyed at five-on-five. It’s easier said than done now that he’s not playing as many shifts behind the Oilers top line, which means he defends on more of his shifts and doesn’t get any opportunities to start the rush like in his Colorado days. It’s a tough game for a smaller defenseman like Barrie to play because offense is his calling card and playing more of a grinding style caters to his weakness. That said, players like Bouchard surpassed him in the lineup so this is the role he needs to play unless the Oilers deploy him differently. Which could happen if he starts the year paired with rookie Phillip Broberg. Barrie will continue to eat on the power play unless Bouchard or Darnell Nurse takes his spot. He has run the top of the umbrella on their league leading power play unit for a couple of years now, so it’s tough to see it changing for continuity purposes.

Darnell Nurse

It was a tale of two halves for the Oilers high-octane defenseman. He was paired with a similar player in Evan Bouchard, acting as both the aggressor and the fireman depending on the situation. They played behind the McDavid line, supplementing him on offense but getting burned for a lot of goals against. Once Jay Woodcroft took over, Nurse was switched to a shutdown role with Cody Ceci. Surprisingly, the two worked well and gave the Oilers blue line some stability, having one pair for offense and one for shutdown minutes. Nurse’s defensive play improved, giving up fewer chances off rushes and the Oilers played a more controlled game in front of him. He had to pick his spots on when to join the offense, but the Oilers were better off as a group. It’s an interesting way to use Nurse because his strengths are all from the red line in. He is very dangerous as the late man and can be lethal if he has any daylight with the puck but exiting the zone under pressure and shaking off forecheckers has never been his strong suit. Playing the shutdown role where he’s relied on for safe, responsible clears takes some workload off him and while he did well in that role, it’s a lot for someone carrying a $9.25 million cap hit for the next eight years. The 16-goal season where he was always pushing for offense made him one of the highest paid players in the league, even if it wasn’t the most optimal way to use him. Bouchard’s emergence took some of the burden off him and him switching roles so seamlessly is encouraging for the Oilers, even if his contract is going to be tough to deal going forward.

Brett Kulak

After exhausting most of their in-house options, the Oilers settled on trading for Kulak to round out their defense. The 28-year-old is a jack-of-all-trades defenseman can play most styles and found his niche in Edmonton as a penalty kill specialist who can help salt games away. He isn’t very big, but can skate with most top forwards, keeping them to the outside when defending entries and join the play if he needs to. He was a calming presence alongside Tyson Barrie on Edmonton’s third pair, with an elevated role late in games when the Oilers were defending a lead. Not much offense is expected of him, but he can pitch in here-and-there thanks to his great mobility and the Oilers could have him playing higher in the lineup with Duncan Keith’s old spot up for grabs. He was a reliable defender in Montreal with the only knock on his game being his play in front of the net, as his strong positioning and stickwork with defending entries doesn’t always translate to boxing out forwards. His strength with keeping play out of the defensive zone makes it not as big of a problem, though.

GOALTENDING

Jack Campbell

Edmonton has seemingly been trying to finally figure out what’s going on in their net for the last 15 years. Now, fresh off the heels of a two-year stretch under the microscope in Toronto, Jack Campbell is next up as a candidate to help the team right the ship. It’s another high-pressure situation for Campbell – but this time, he won’t be coming on board to be the team’s number two.

The once-highly-touted American netminder offers a sharp contrast to the goaltender he’ll be taking over for as the team’s clear-consensus starter. He lacks MIke Smith’s almost confrontational aura, instead opting for a “buds all day” approach that endears him to fans but can look a little less competitive overall. He plays differently, too; gone will be the days of a veteran giant manning the crease nearly from behind the goal line, replaced instead by a nimble and slightly more modern goaltender who plays a bit more centered in the blue paint and seems perfectly willing to let his defense control zone breakouts on their own. This could mean structural changes for the Edmonton blue line, although that was likely already on the horizon with Dave Tippett’s departure still fresh on the team’s mind.

The good news for Edmonton is that Campbell, who seems to thrive in a more team-oriented environment than Mike Smith ever did, shouldn’t need to worry about navigating a potentially tricky dynamic with Smith. The elder goaltender, while still under contract with the Oilers for the 2022-23 season, is expected to miss the season with a long-term injury – paving the way for Stuart Skinner to sit as the team’s number two and for Campbell to focus on his performance, not on losing starts to a hyper-competitive tandem partner. But the bad news is that Skinner remains relatively unproven on the NHL stage. This leaves Campbell without the lifeline that Smith’s experience likely would have afforded him should he find himself struggling consistency-wise during the season.

Projected starts: 60-65

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Troy Terry continues streak, Nick Suzuki is surging, and much more

Scott Cullen — Thu, 11 Nov 2021 15:18:36 +0000

I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Troy Terry continues his scoring streak, Nick Suzuki is surging after a slow start, and Chandler Stephenson should not be overlooked in Vegas.

ST. LOUIS, MO - MAY 03: Anaheim Ducks rightwing Troy Terry (61) gets set to pass with pressure from St. Louis Blues defenseman Niko Mikkola (77) during a NHL game between the Anaheim Ducks and the St. Louis Blues on May 03, 2021, at Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Mo. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire),

#1 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry is riding a 12-game point streak, having recorded a point in every Ducks game since the opener when he played just 8:35 at Winnipeg. The value play may be shifting on Terry. He came into the season with modest expectations, but this point streak has elevated his stature and now that he is widely known, there might be value in trying to trade him for a more established player.

Terry has 16 points (9 G, 7 A) and 29 shots on goal during the 12-game streak. He has also scored on 31.0% of his shots so even if there is real improvement in Terry’s game, there is almost assuredly going to be regression coming for his shooting percentage.

#2 As the Montreal Canadiens stumbled out of the gate this season, so too did their No. 1 centre, Nick Suzuki, who had one assist through six games. Since then, Suzuki has produced 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 27 shots on goal in eight games. He is creating chances and making the high-end skill plays that are expected of him as the Habs’ offensive leader.

#3 While his name briefly popped into Jack Eichel trade rumors, Matthew Tkachuk has not let that phase him at all and he has been a force for the Flames. He has nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 27 shots on goal in the past seven games

#4 Last season’s Norris Trophy winner, Rangers defenceman Adam Fox, really vaulted into consideration when his offensive game picked up last season. He scored 40 points (4 G, 36 A) in his last 39 games last season, despite not recording a point in the final six games. Fox has opened this season with 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 13 games, which leads all defencemen and ties Fox with Artemi Panarin for the team lead.

#5 Naturally, a lot was made of the Vegas Golden Knights acquiring Jack Eichel, with expectations that Eichel would super-charge Vegas’ top line. When everyone has been healthy in Vegas, that has been the domain of Chandler Stephenson, who has continued to produce, even with injuries taking Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone out of the lineup. In the past eight games, Stephenson has contributed nine points (3 G, 6 A) but only 13 shots on goal.

#6 While the Vancouver Canucks try to get more out of star centre Elias Pettersson, they have been able to lean on J.T. Miller, who has 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 13 games. He is averaging 22:25 time on ice per game, which ranks third among all forwards, behind only Leon Draisaitl (22:51) and Connor McDavid (22:30).

#7 One of the challenges in fantasy hockey is that sometimes there are players that produce for fantasy purposes and maybe their all-around game does not match that production. Consider defencemen like Seth Jones and Tyson Barrie. Jones, in his first season with the Chicago Blackhawks after an offseason trade from Columbus, has 12 points (1 G, 11 A) and 45 shots on goal in 14 games. He is also getting soundly outshot and the Blackhawks have been outscored 16-8 during 5-on-5 play with Jones on the ice.

#8 Edmonton’s Tyson Barrie is in a similar position. Barrie led all defencemen in scoring last season and has eight points (2 G, 6 A) in 11 games this season. He has been fortunate enough to not get outscored because Barrie is getting outshot substantially. His -10.0 CFRel% is sixth worst among defencemen to play at least 100 5-on-5 minutes. Patrik Nemeth, Brian Dumoulin, Ty Smith, Marco Scandella, and Kevin Shattenkirk are the five defencemen getting outshot worse than Barrie relative to their teammates. But proximity to McDavid and Draisaitl ensures that Barrie will put up points and that means he will have fantasy value.

#9 For a player who has never surpassed the 31 points that he scored in each of his first two seasons, Minnesota Wild forward Ryan Hartman offers some sneaky fantasy value. It may be short term, but this isn’t just about Hartman scoring five points (4 G, 1 A) in the past five games. The more intriguing part is that Hartman has 38 shots on goal in 11 games this season, a rate of 3.45 per game, which is a massive spike from the 1.45 shots on goal per game he had last season. When it comes to seeking out sustainable production, hunting down players that are consistently getting shots is a good approach.

#10 Seattle Kraken left winger Jaden Schwartz started slowly, with one assist in six games, but has seven points (2 G, 5 A) in seven games since. In those seven games, Schwartz has 22 shots on goal and is averaging 19:34 time on ice per game, both of which are good indications that he has been getting good opportunities to produce.

#11 Fresh off his highlight reel overtime goal at Montreal, Los Angeles Kings left winger Adrian Kempe has goals in four straight games and has seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 21 shots on goal in the past seven games. With Viktor Arvidsson out, there is an opportunity for Kempe to play with Anze Kopitar and that is a good place to be.

ST. PAUL, MN - JANUARY 31: Colorado Avalanche Defenceman Bowen Byram (4) skates with the puck during an NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and the Colorado Avalanche on January 31, 2021, at Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

#12 Injuries contributed to Colorado Avalanche defenceman Bowen Byram playing just 19 games last season, so he remains rookie eligible and the fourth pick in the 2019 Draft may very well find himself in the Calder Trophy discussion. Devon Toews is still recovering from shoulder surgery and has not played yet for the Avalanche this season. That has given Byram ample opportunity to show his stuff and he has put up eight points (3 G, 5 A) while playing more than 21 minutes per game. That is an impressive start for a 20-year-old defenceman.

#13 The San Jose Sharks are giving third year blueliner Mario Ferraro a big role this season and he is running with it. Playing more than 25 minutes per game, Ferraro does have four points (1 G, 3 A) in the past four games, but his fantasy hook really comes from 25 hits and 35 blocked shots in 11 games. Those peripheral numbers matter, too.

#14 The Columbus Blue Jackets drafted Sonny Milano 16^th overall in the 2014 Draft and did not get much out of him. Milano showed some potential but ultimately had 42 points (20 G, 22 A) in 116 games for Columbus before he was traded to Anaheim. He had five points (2 G, 3 A) in 15 games for the Ducks coming into this season but is getting more of an opportunity now and making the most of it. Milano has seven points (2 G, 5 A) in nine games this season, averaging a career high 15:47 time on ice per game. This is still small sample success for Milano but it’s worth keeping him on your radar in case this is his breakout season.

#15 Bruins right winger David Pastrnak has managed a mediocre eight points (3 G, 5 A) in 10 games but while that qualifies as disappointing for a star scorer like Pastrnak, he has 45 shots in that time, and 4.5 shots on goal per game is a career high. That does not guarantee that prime Pastrnak is just around the corner but if you’re going to buy low, doing it on a player who is firing a ton of pucks is usually a good play. Even better when it is a player who has proven that he is one of the premier goal-scorers in the league.

#16 Anthony Duclair started the season with goals in each of the first three games, even though he was barely playing – getting an average of 10:45 time on ice per game. He has climbed the Panthers depth chart, getting back on the top line with Carter Verhaeghe and Aleksander Barkov. In his past eight games, Duclair has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 20 shots on goal while playing nearly 16 minutes per game.

#17 Red Wings rookie defenceman Moritz Seider has been every bit as good as advertised, and then some. He did have 28 points in 41 games for Rogle in the Swedish Hockey League last season, so his production is not entirely unexpected, but Seider has recorded 11 points (2 G, 9 A) in his first 14 games for the Red Wings while playing more than 22 minutes per game. Along with teammate Lucas Raymond, the Red Wings have strong Calder Trophy contenders.

#18 Goaltending is unpredictable and frustrating and can ruin your fantasy season. It can also make your fantasy season but who knows which goaltender will provide those positive results? Just take a look at last year’s top five vote-getters for the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender. The winner was Marc-Andre Fleury, who is having a disaster of a season in Chicago. Runner-up was Andrei Vasilevskiy and, okay, he is still really good playing behind a strong team and his recent play has been top notch. Third in voting was Philipp Grubauer, who could have reasonably expected this season to be more challenging, going from Colorado to Seattle, but there has been a steep drop there. Fourth was Connor Hellebuyck, who has not played to his typically high standards. Fifth was Semyon Varlamov, who was recovering from offseason surgery and might have lost his job to Ilya Sorokin. It is early and lots can change, not least of all goaltending performance, but there are fantasy managers who thought they were making a safe play in goal and have been left with disappointing results.

#19 According to Natural Stat Trick, there are seven teams that are generating more than 2.50 expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. Some of these teams might be expected, like Toronto and Carolina at 1-2, but there are some surprises. Minnesota, Calgary, Florida, Pittsburgh, and Detroit round out the top seven and it might offer some encouragement to select players from those teams.

#20 At the other end of the spectrum, there are five teams with fewer than 2.00 expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. That group includes Chicago, San Jose, New York Rangers, Arizona, and Vancouver. That seems troubling for teams like the Rangers and Canucks, that would have expected to be more dangerous offensively, maybe not as troubling for Chicago and Arizona, teams that appear to be in real trouble. San Jose? They probably need to generate more offence if they are going to be legitimately competitive. In any case, it’s worth having a read on team-level results when looking for fantasy value, because you might want to think twice about some players on these teams until these rates start to improve.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – A Look Back at the 2020-21 Season

Scott Cullen — Thu, 20 May 2021 19:33:41 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, a look back at the 2021 season and some of the underlying and sometimes just odd numbers for players during the 56-game season.

#1 Boston Bruins left winger Brad Marchand finished third in scoring with 69 points. He was a long way from first but, following offseason sports hernia surgery, Marchand’s longest streak without registering a point was two games, which happened twice. Since 2016-2017, Marchand ranks third in the NHL with 426 points, behind the two players that he was behind in this year’s scoring race, the Edmonton Oilers duo of Connor McDavid (526) and Leon Draisaitl (469). (Yes, that means that McDavid has 100 points more than any non-teammate over the past five seasons.)

#2 Although he had to take a leave of absence from the New York Rangers during the season, left winger Artemi Panarin ended up with 58 points in 42 games this season. Over the past two seasons, his first two with the Blueshirts, Panarin is averaging 1.38 points per game, which ranks third behind Connor McDavid (1.68) and Leon Draisaitl (1.53).

DENVER, CO - FEBRUARY 22: Vegas Golden Knights right wing Mark Stone (61) skates during a game between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado on February 22, 2021. The Colorado Avalanche wore retro-themed uniforms with logos of the Quebec Nordiques. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

#3 Vegas Golden Knights captain Mark Stone tallied 61 points, the sixth time in the past seven seasons that he has scored at least 60 points, and it was not a standard path to get there. In a shortened season, Stone needed a career-high 1.11 points per game to cross that threshold and he did it with a career-low 1.78 shots on goal per game. He scored on a career-high 21.4% of his shots and had a career-high on-ice shooting percentage of 12.1%.

#4 One of the biggest bounce-back seasons was authored by Chicago Blackhawks winger Alex DeBrincat, who tallied 32 goals and 56 points in 52 games after scoring 18 goals and 45 points in 70 games in 2019-2020. Hockey can be fickle, though. Last season, DeBrincat had 2.96 shots on goal per game and it improved this season to 2.98 shots on goal per game. Okay, that minor nudge does not explain the increase in goal scoring. Last season, DeBrincat scored on 8.7% of his shots. This season, he scored on 20.6%. He also played almost three minutes more per game compared to last season but it’s worth noting that DeBrincat had a higher shot and expected goal rate in all situations in the 2019-2020 season than he did in 2021 but sometimes the puck won’t go in the net. Other times, a sniper like DeBrincat can’t miss.

#5 Minnesota Wild rookie sensations Kirill Kaprizov had an outstanding rookie season, but it was a tale of two rookie seasons in one. Coming out of a KHL season in which he tallied 62 points in 57 games, a standard NHL equivalency would have pegged Kaprizov for approximately 45 points in a 56-game season. He exceeded those numbers, finishing with 51 points (27 G, 24 A) in 55 games. The rookie was putting up points immediately but was not generating shots. In his first 17 NHL games, Kaprizov contributed 16 points and 28 shots on goal (1.65 shots per game). In the next 38 games, he scored 35 points, including 22 goals, and generated 129 shots on goal (3.39 per game), more than doubling his shot rate.

#6 32-year-old St. Louis Blues winger David Perron had the first point-per-game season of career, scoring 58 points in 56 games. He averaged 18:33 of ice time per game, the second highest per-game average of his career.

#7 Looking to re-establish his value after a down season in Toronto, Edmonton’s Tyson Barrie decided that signing in Edmonton would work for him, and he was right. Barrie paced all defensemen with 48 points. Keep in mind that Barrie is going to be an unrestricted free agent in the offseason and that Connor McDavid recorded a point on 34 of the 48 goals (70.8%) which Barrie had a point. In Barrie’s 2017-2018 season, when he tallied a career-high 57 points for Colorado, Nathan MacKinnon had a point on 30 of those 57 goals (52.6%).

#8 36-year-old Dallas Stars center Joe Pavelski had a bounce-back campaign after a tough start in Dallas in 2019-2020. He finished with 51 points (25 G, 26 A), scoring 13 of his 25 goals on the power play. Since 2013-2014, Pavelski has 25 goals scored via deflections. Winnipeg Jets captain Blake Wheeler has the second most goals on deflections in that time with 16.

#9 There were five defensemen that had at least 15 points this season that recorded more than half of their points on the power play. Florida’s Keith Yandle (66.7%), Arizona’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson (58.3%), Montreal’s Shea Weber (57.9%), Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman (53.3%), and Los Angeles’ Drew Doughty (52.9%).

#10 On the other end of the spectrum, there were 60 defensemen to put up at least 20 points this season. Those with the lowest percentage of power play points were Toronto’s Justin Holl (0.0%), Toronto’s Jake Muzzin (7.4%), Florida’s MacKenzie Weegar (8.3%), and Nashville’s Mattias Ekholm along with Minnesota’s Jonas Brodin (both 8.7%).

#11 Minnesota Wild left winger Marcus Foligno had a career season, scoring a career-high 26 points in 39 games. Foligno had zero power play points. The other top even-strength scorers without any power play points: Winnipeg’s Mason Appleton (24), Montreal’s Phillip Danault (23), as well as the Rangers’ Filip Chytil (22) and Alexis Lafreniere (21). Minnesota’s Jordan Greenway had 31 even-strength points with one power-play point and Vancouver rookie Nils Hoglander had 26 even-strength points with one power-play point.

#12 There were 389 forwards that played at least 300 5-on-5 minutes this season. The leaders in individual expected goals per 60 minutes were Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher (1.30), Toronto’s Auston Matthews (1.14), Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk (1.02), Minnesota’s Joel Eriksson Ek (1.02), the Islanders’ Anders Lee (1.01), and Carolina’s Nino Niederreiter (1.01). Familiar names for this category but it also shows the difference between an elite finisher like Matthews and others who generate the shots and chances but don’t come close to Matthews’ goal totals.

#13 The forwards with the lowest individual expected goals per 60 minutes were Columbus’ Patrik Laine (0.26), Minnesota’s Victor Rask (0.26), Toronto’s Joe Thornton (0.27), St. Louis’ Tyler Bozak (0.30), and Winnipeg’s Nate Thompson (0.30). Seeing Laine at the very bottom of the list shows just what a disaster this season was for him. A fresh start, with a new coach, can’t come soon enough.

#14 Surprisingly, the most productive player from that early-season trade was Jack Roslovic, who scored a career-high 34 points (12 G, 22 A) in 48 games for Columbus. His ice time went up a couple of minutes per game compared to the 2019-2020 season in Winnipeg. His shot rate (1.77 per game) was a bit of a concern, too, but that appears to be virtually a team-wide issue for the Blue Jackets.

#15 Arizona Coyotes right winger Phil Kessel finished with a flourish and ended up with 20 goals and 43 points; it was the 12^th time in the past 13 seasons that Kessel scored at least 20 goals. He scored on a career-high 17.4% of his shots but he did improve his shot rates as the season progressed. In his first 32 games, Kessel had 20 points and 54 shots on goal (1.69 shots per game) and then scored 23 points with 61 shots on goal (2.54 shots per game) in his last 24 games.

#16 Anaheim Ducks winger Rickard Rakell scored nine goals in 52 goals, finishing with a career-low 6.3% shooting percentage. Over the past three seasons, there are 120 forwards that have recorded at least 400 shots on goal. The forwards from that group with the lowest shooting percentage: Boston’s Taylor Hall (7.7%), Rakell (8.0%), Columbus’ Boone Jenner (8.2%), Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk (8.7%), Dallas’ Tyler Seguin (8.9%), and Arizona’s Clayton Keller (8.9%).

#17 The forwards from that group that have the highest shooting percentages: Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (20.1%), Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point (19.2%), Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos (18.2%), Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele (17.8%), and San Jose’s Tomas Hertl (17.3%).

#18 Florida Panthers left winger Jonathan Huberdeau scored 19 points in the last 13 games to finish the season with 61 points, good for 12^th in league scoring. In the past three seasons Huberdeau ranks seventh among all scorers with 231 points.

#19 Pittsburgh Penguins center Jared McCann rose to the occasion when Evgeni Malkin was injured. McCann returned to the lineup a few days after Malkin was hurt and from March 20 through the end of the regular season, McCann scored 22 points (9 G, 13 A) in 26 games, giving him 32 points in 43 games. Just something to consider if the Penguins consider moving Malkin in the offseason.

#20 Finally, the Detroit Red Wings’ leading scorer this season was defenseman Filip Hronek, who had a modest 26 points in 56 games. Even more remarkable is that 17 of his 26 points were second assists. He had 11 more secondary assists than any other Red Wings player.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

FANTASY HOCKEY: PLAYOFF POOL STRATEGIES, TIPS AND PICKLIST

Scott Cullen — Fri, 14 May 2021 23:07:40 +0000

PLAYOFF POOL STRATEGIES

As unusual as the 2021 NHL season has been, the playoff is still a little different than in previous seasons – with staggered starts and different divisional setups – but it is close enough to a normal 16-team playoff that regular playoff pool strategies will still apply.

These guidelines for playoff pool drafting offer no guarantees. This is all about giving your team the best chance to succeed.

DIVERSIFY YOUR APPROACH

In general, the foundation for drafting a fantasy pool team is to pick from four different teams so that you have some room for error and have a chance at having representatives on each team in the third round of the playoffs.

It is possible to put all your eggs in one basket and if you draft 10 players from one team and that teams wins the Stanley Cup, you probably will win your pool. But there is a law of diminishing returns, too.

Consider that Anthony Cirelli ranked 10^th on the Tampa Bay Lightning playoff scoring last year with 10 points. If you somehow got all of Tampa Bay’s top ten scorers then, yes, you would likely run away with your playoff pool.

But Tampa Bay was expected to be a Cup contender last year, so the odds were heavily against being able to draft all three of Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman. If you don’t get all of the top guys, then you end up in competition with others for the supporting players, which is fine, but it also means that you are not going to get all of Tampa Bay’s Top 10 even with an “all-in” strategy and suddenly you’re down to the likes of Pat Maroon and Barclay Goodrow and there might be better scoring options elsewhere.

Ultimately, depending on how your draft shakes out, this could mean being prepared to take players from at least one underdog because if everyone only takes players from favored teams, the pool of players gets shallow in a hurry.

STACKING STILL OKAY

The plan to diversify has overall value but that does not preclude you from grabbing players on the same line so that you might be able to score multiple points on the same goal. If you’re liking the new-look Boston Bruins since the trade deadline, maybe it’s worth considering not just Taylor Hall but linemates David Krejci or Craig Smith, too. Zach Hyman is out there just waiting to be paired with Auston Matthews or Mitch Marner.

DON’T PLAY BOTH SIDES IN THE FIRST ROUND

The Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals have had recent playoff success and there might be players on both teams that you like for playoff pool purposes but if you take players from both of those teams that guarantees that you won’t have a full roster in Round Two. I will offer a tiny exception to this rule and that is if you are heading to the end of your draft and the best player on an underdog is still available then that might make some sense as a hedging option because there may be greater upside in taking Filip Forsberg and hoping that Nashville can pull off an upset than grabbing another third-line winger from a favored team.

POWER PLAY MATTERS – ESPECIALLY ON DEFENSE

EDMONTON, AB - FEBRUARY 27: Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Tyson Barrie (22) in action in the second period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Toronto Maple Leafs on February 27, 2021 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

Finding value in small samples means that power plays tend to have an outsized importance in playoff hockey. In the 2019-2020 regular season, for example, teams averaged 4:44 of 5-on-4 time per game. In the playoffs of that same season, teams played 5:37 per game. That is an increase of more than 18%. 5-on-4 goal production went from 0.545 goals per game in the regular season to 0.624 per game in the playoffs: an increase of more than 14%.

Obviously, more goals are scored at even strength, so that should not be ignored, but a role on the first power play unit certainly works as a useful tie-breaker among players that might be close in terms of expected value.

That also means that the defenseman who quarterbacks a team’s power play can have a major impact. In last year’s playoffs, three of the top seven scorers overall were defensemen – Dallas Stars duo Miro Heiskanen and John Klingberg as well as Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman. Vegas Golden Knights blueliner Shea Theodore, Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes, and Colorado’s Cale Makar finished in the Top 25, too.

In 2019, Alex Pietrangelo, Torey Krug, Erik Karlsson, and Brent Burns were all among the Top 15 playoff scorers.

By way of comparison, there were two defensemen in the Top 25 in regular season scoring in 2019-2020: John Carlson finished 12^th and Roman Josi 24^th.

This season, Tyson Barrie is the highest scoring defenseman, with 48 points in 55 games, and he ranks 33^rd. You can take it to the bank that the highest scoring defenseman in the playoffs will finish higher than 33^rd in playoff scoring.

ST. PAUL, MN - JANUARY 31: Minnesota Wild Right Wing Kirill Kaprizov (97) controls the puck during an NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and the Colorado Avalanche on January 31, 2021, at Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

TARGET PLAYERS WITH LATE MOMENTUM

This does not mean that a player who had a good week or two is suddenly a star but if circumstances changed, it would make sense to take that into account.

Who are some notable players that have produced more since the trade deadline? These aren’t the first line stars, necessarily, but players who performed better down the stretch of this season.

Boston C David Krejci 21 points (6 G, 15 A) in 16 games

Minnesota C Nick Bonino 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in 16 games

Toronto C John Tavares 17 points (7 G, 10 A) in 14 games

Minnesota LW Kirill Kaprizov 17 points (11 G, 6 A) in 15 games

Montreal C Nick Suzuki 17 points (8 G, 9 A) in 18 games

Florida RW Anthony Duclair 16 points (6 G, 10 A) in 14 games

Florida C Sam Bennett 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 10 games

Boston LW Taylor Hall 14 points (8 G, 6 A) in 14 games

Vegas C Chandler Stephenson 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 16 games

TARGET PLAYERS WITH PREVIOUS PLAYOFF SUCCESS

Some players have been able to perform at a high level in the playoffs and it can be one thing for a star player to just carry on what they were doing in the regular season but supporting players who can keep scoring in the postseason, when the opposition is better, do hold added appeal. This does not mean to abandon a player who has not yet had playoff scoring success because it is more important to get good players in good situations rather than worrying about what they have done in small playoff samples.

Over the past decade, these are some supporting players who have had some relative postseason scoring success in the postseason.

Pittsburgh LW Jake Guentzel 46 points (25 G, 21 A) in 45 games

Nashville C Matt Duchene 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 16 games

Boston LW Taylor Hall 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in 14 games

Vegas RW Reilly Smith 55 points (19 G, 36 A) in 65 games

Nashville C Ryan Johansen 48 points (16 G, 32 A) in 57 games

Colorado C Nazem Kadri 28 points (12 G, 16 A) in 34 games

Boston C David Krejci 71 points (21 G, 50 A) in 93 games

Winnipeg C Pierre-Luc Dubois 19 points (8 G, 11 A) in 26 games

Pittsburgh RW Jeff Carter 53 points (26 G, 27 A) in 73 games

Florida C Sam Bennett 19 points (8 G, 11 A) in 30 games

GET LUCKY

This one is out of your control but preparation and a strategy going into a playoff draft at least gives you an opportunity to have success. Maybe you need an upset or two. Maybe you need a player to go on a percentage-fueled scoring run. It can happen. Players and teams get hot and in a 16-team tournament, that can make all the difference.

HOCKEY POOL DRAFT/PICK LIST

Here is a playoff draft list, top 150 skaters plus 21 goaltenders, based on Colorado over Tampa Bay, with Toronto and Boston reaching the semifinal. Obviously, individual preferences for the playoffs make a big difference in expected games played. Use this as a guide, but trust your own research and instincts. If you need a quick list this should see you through.

RK	PLAYER	TEAM
1	Nathan MacKinnon	COL
2	Mikko Rantanen	COL
3	Nikita Kucherov	TB
4	Brayden Point	TB
5	Connor McDavid	EDM
6	Cale Makar	COL
7	Brad Marchand	BOS
8	Mitch Marner	TOR
9	Auston Matthews	TOR
10	Gabriel Landeskog	COL
11	Leon Draisaitl	EDM
12	Steven Stamkos	TB
13	Victor Hedman	TB
14	David Pastrnak	BOS
15	John Tavares	TOR
16	Patrice Bergeron	BOS
17	Sidney Crosby	PIT
18	Ondrej Palat	TB
19	Nazem Kadri	COL
20	Andre Burakovsky	COL
21	David Krejci	BOS
22	Taylor Hall	BOS
23	William Nylander	TOR
24	Sebastian Aho	CAR
25	Jake Guentzel	PIT
26	Mark Stone	VGK
27	Evgeni Malkin	PIT
28	Alex Killorn	TB
29	Yanni Gourde	TB
30	Zach Hyman	TOR
31	Max Pacioretty	VGK
32	Andrei Svechnikov	CAR
33	Kris Letang	PIT
34	Sam Girard	COL
35	Blake Coleman	TB
36	Devon Toews	COL
37	Shea Theodore	VGK
38	Joonas Donskoi	COL
39	Tyler Johnson	TB
40	Morgan Rielly	TOR
41	Jonathan Marchessault	VGK
42	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	EDM
43	Mikhail Sergachev	TB
44	Charlie McAvoy	BOS
45	Craig Smith	BOS
46	William Karlsson	VGK
47	Reilly Smith	VGK
48	Martin Necas	CAR
49	Teuvo Teravainen	CAR
50	Dougie Hamilton	CAR
51	J.T. Compher	COL
52	Tyson Barrie	EDM
53	Jason Spezza	TOR
54	Anthony Cirelli	TB
55	Joe Thornton	TOR
56	Mathieu Joseph	TB
57	Jake Muzzin	TOR
58	Mike Reilly	BOS
59	Nick Foligno	TOR
60	Jordan Staal	CAR
61	Jeff Carter	PIT
62	Alex Tuch	VGK
63	Bryan Rust	PIT
64	Alex Pietrangelo	VGK
65	Jared McCann	PIT
66	Kasperi Kapanen	PIT
67	Mark Scheifele	WPG
68	Matt Grzelcyk	BOS
69	Charlie Coyle	BOS
70	Chandler Stephenson	VGK
71	Aleksander Barkov	FLA
72	Ryan O'Reilly	STL
73	Nicklas Backstrom	WSH
74	Alex Ovechkin	WSH
75	Darnell Nurse	EDM
76	Kirill Kaprizov	MIN
77	Jonathan Huberdeau	FLA
78	Mathew Barzal	NYI
79	David Perron	STL
80	Filip Forsberg	NSH
81	Blake Wheeler	WPG
82	Evgeny Kuznetsov	WSH
83	Vincent Trocheck	CAR
84	John Carlson	WSH
85	Kyle Connor	WPG
86	T.J. Oshie	WSH
87	Tyler Toffoli	MTL
88	Nick Suzuki	MTL
89	Valeri Nichushkin	COL
90	Alex Kerfoot	TOR
91	Jesse Puljujarvi	EDM
92	Alex Newhook	COL
93	Mats Zuccarello	MIN
94	Josh Bailey	NYI
95	Nikolaj Ehlers	WPG
96	Torey Krug	STL
97	Carter Verhaeghe	FLA
98	Ryan Johansen	NSH
99	Mike Hoffman	STL
100	Anthony Duclair	FLA
101	Kevin Fiala	MIN
102	Patric Hornqvist	FLA
103	Jordan Eberle	NYI
104	Vladimir Tarasenko	STL
105	Brandon Saad	COL
106	Tyson Jost	COL
107	Nick Ritchie	BOS
108	Alec Martinez	VGK
109	Brock Nelson	NYI
110	Pierre-Luc Dubois	WPG
111	Sam Bennett	FLA
112	Roman Josi	NSH
113	Brendan Gallagher	MTL
114	Jaden Schwartz	STL
115	Brayden Schenn	STL
116	Anthony Mantha	WSH
117	James Neal	EDM
118	Nino Niederreiter	CAR
119	Brett Pesce	CAR
120	Teddy Blueger	PIT
121	Brandon Tanev	PIT
122	Warren Foegele	CAR
123	Barclay Goodrow	TB
124	Tomas Nosek	VGK
125	Jason Zucker	PIT
126	Jesper Fast	CAR
127	Kailer Yamamoto	EDM
128	Frederick Gaudreau	PIT
129	Dominik Kahun	EDM
130	Anthony Beauvillier	NYI
131	Paul Stastny	WPG
132	Kyle Palmieri	NYI
133	Justin Schultz	WSH
134	Neal Pionk	WPG
135	Alex Chiasson	EDM
136	Keith Yandle	FLA
137	Andrew Copp	WPG
138	Jordan Kyrou	STL
139	Tom Wilson	WSH
140	Lars Eller	WSH
141	MacKenzie Weegar	FLA
142	Mikael Granlund	NSH
143	Jeff Petry	MTL
144	Ryan Ellis	NSH
145	Cole Caufield	MTL
146	Tyler Bozak	STL
147	Viktor Arvidsson	NSH
148	Nick Bonino	MIN
149	Tomas Tatar	MTL
150	Jared Spurgeon	MIN

RK	GOALTENDER	TEAM
1	Philipp Grubauer	COL
2	Andrei Vasilevskiy	TB
3	Jack Campbell	TOR
4	Tuukka Rask	BOS
5	Robin Lehner	VGK
6	Petr Mrazek	CAR
7	Mike Smith	EDM
8	Tristan Jarry	PIT
9	Connor Hellebuyck	WPG
10	Juuse Saros	NSH
11	Carey Price	MTL
12	Jordan Binnington	STL
13	Semyon Varlamov	NYI
14	Cam Talbot	MIN
15	Sergei Bobrovsky	FLA
16	Vitek Vanecek	WSH
17	Chris Driedger	FLA
18	Marc-Andre Fleury	VGK
19	Alex Nedeljkovic	CAR
20	Jeremy Swayman	BOS
21	Frederik Andersen	TOR