victor hedman – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Team Preview

Sat, 20 Sep 2025 20:05:52 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 04: Tampa Bay Lightning Left Wing Jake Guentzel (59) skates in warm ups before a Los Angeles Kings game versus the Tampa Bay Lightning on January 4th, 2025, at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire)

The Lightning finished in second place in the Atlantic Division with 102 points (47-27-8). They haven’t won the division since the 2018-2019 season, incidentally. They lost in five games to the Florida Panthers in the first round of the playoffs, a sudden and quick end to their season. The Lightning were better than average in terms of puck possession numbers, ranking ninth in both Corsi percentage (51.5) and expected goals percentage (51.8). Not surprisingly, the Lightning had a strong power play, ranking seventh with 8.61 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, and they ranked 11th with 6.37 goals against per 60 minutes during four-on-five play. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy was in fine form, appearing in a league-leading 63 games and finishing second in Vezina Trophy voting, so the Lightning looked like they could be dangerous in the postseason, but injuries may have contributed to their rapid first-round ouster.

What’s Changed?

The Lightning appear relatively comfortable with the roster with which they ended the 2024-2025 season. They acquired Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand from Seattle at the trade deadline, but the only notable forward addition this summer was Pontus Holmberg, the former Toronto Maple Leaf. Defenceman Nicklaus Perbix signed as a free agent with the Nashville Predators, and checking centre Luke Glendening remains unsigned, but the vast majority of last season’s team returns for the Lightning in 2025-2026.

What would success look like?

As a team that has made three appearances in the Stanley Cup Final in the past six seasons, winning twice, the Lightning still expect to compete for the championship, but they also haven’t made it out of the first round in the past three seasons, so that is probably the more reasonable starting point. Defeating the Florida Panthers, exacting some revenge on their in-state rival, would be a nice touch, too, but the Lightning surely look at the elite talent on their roster – some nearing the decline phase of their careers – and recognize that the time to win is now.

What could go wrong?

The Lightning’s moves last season bolstered depth throughout the lineup, to the point that they can probably withstand some injuries without it completely destroying the team. The area in which the Lightning have more risk is goaltending, where Vasilevskiy is great, but if anything should happen to him, especially a long-term injury, backup Jonas Johansson does not have a track record that inspires a great deal of confidence. Could that be enough to knock the Lightning right out of the playoff picture? The injuries would probably have to be major, but if the Lightning are going to get back to contending for the Stanley Cup, a strong finish in the regular season wouldn’t hurt their case.

Top Breakout Candidate

Although 6-foot-4 forward Conor Geekie managed a modest 14 points (8 G, 6 A) in 52 games as a rookie last season, he did produce 20 points (11 G, 9 A) in 23 AHL games, and the opportunity to play in a scoring role at that level should set him up for bigger and better things in his second NHL season. Geekie has a chance to secure a spot in Tampa Bay’s top nine, along with some second unit power play time, and if he makes the most of that and stays healthy, he could triple last season’s totals.

FORWARDS

Nikita Kucherov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	35	80	115	1.44

A brilliant offensive performer who is exceptional in his ability to deceive opponents, from using his eyes to look off defenders to create passing lanes to his patented fake shot shootout move, he is operating on an elite tier when it comes to outright tricking his opponents. Since 2017-2018, Kucherov has averaged 1.47 points per game, which ranks second behind only Connor McDavid (1.60). Kucherov has reached 100 points or more five times in his career, winning the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s top scorer in each of the past two seasons. While Kucherov is hardly revered for his defensive play, his outstanding production has still resulted in him accruing a five-on-five goal differential of +211 over the course of his career. Last season alone, his five-on-five goal differential was +33. On top of his dominance at even-strength, Kucherov terrorizes opponents on the power play. In the past three seasons he has recorded 149 power play points, which is more than anyone else. Kucherov also plays with a feisty edge. It’s not like he racks up huge penalty minute totals but every so often he is prepared to send a message that he is not to be messed with. Heading into the 2025-2026 season, Kucherov is as good a bet as any to lead the league in scoring as he seeks his third straight Art Ross. It is entirely reasonable to expect him to produce 35 goals and 120 points.

Brayden Point

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	41	46	87	1.09

There are benefits to spending most of one’s time on a line with Nikita Kucherov and Point has shown that by scoring 139 goals across the past three seasons, which ranks fourth in the league behind David Pastrnak (151), Leon Draisaitl (145), and Auston Matthews (142). In those three seasons, Point has scored on 21.4 percent of his shots and when that happens in a single season, the knee-jerk response is to say that those numbers are bound to regress because that’s an unsustainable shooting percentage over the long haul. But once it reaches a sample size of three seasons, maybe Point is just getting such high-quality chances that the high shooting percentage is to be expected. Andrei Kuzmenko and Leon Draisaitl are the only other NHL players scoring on more than 20 percent of their shots over the past three seasons. As great as Point’s production is, it bears noting that he was not at break-even in terms of shot attempts during five-on-five play, so he was more dependent on lofty percentages than most players. Nevertheless, if the percentages are going to be running high for Point, because they have been, then he should still be a very productive player in 2025-2026. Something along the lines of 40-plus goals and 85-90 points, including around 30 points on the power play, would be consistent with Point’s recent production.

Jake Guentzel

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	36	42	78	1.00

After a great run in Pittsburgh, playing a lot with Sidney Crosby, and a short stint in Carolina where he was very productive, Guentzel landed in Tampa Bay last season and delivered a career-high 41 goals in his first season for the Lightning. He scored a league-leading 17 power play goals, finishing one ahead of Brayden Point and Leon Draisaitl. Guentzel was overlooked to some degree early in his career, as his production was dismissed as a result of playing with an elite center like Crosby, but Guentzel has shown that he can produce without Crosby, too, that he is a legitimate first line scoring winger in his own right. What is somewhat surprising about this development is that Guentzel does not have an exceptional physical trait. He’s a good puck-handler and passer, can shoot it and is a decent skater, but none of those skills identify him as a standout performer. What does set him apart is that he thinks the game at a high level, consistently putting himself in the right position to make plays and create chances offensively. Since 2018-2019, Guentzel has produced 490 points (230 G, 260 A) in 478 games, his 1.03 points per game ranking 22nd in the league over that time frame. A competitive play-driving winger, Guentzel has helped his team to outscore opponents by double digits during five-on-five play in six of his past seven seasons. Skating on a line with Point and Kucherov certainly gives him ample opportunity to remain a premier scoring winger, so 35 goals and 75-80 points during the 2025-2026 season is well within his reach.

Brandon Hagel

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	30	46	76	0.93

A fantastic story of perseverance, from being an unsigned sixth-round pick of the Buffalo Sabres who battled his way into the league with the Chicago Blackhawks, Hagel has hit his stride in Tampa Bay and improves year after year. In 2024-2025, he set career highs with 35 goals, 55 assists, and 90 points. Even more impressively, Hagel did not pad his numbers with outrageous power play production and his 72 even-strength points ranked fifth in the NHL, falling between Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. Hagel is an excellent skater who plays with great tenacity, using his speed to create chances in transition and his fearlessness to go to the dirty areas in order to score goals. He keeps his stick readily available for tips, rebounds, and other second-chance opportunities, making him an excellent complement to even more skilled linemates. Hagel’s ability to play at an elite level was recognized by Hockey Canada when he was named to Team Canada for the Four Nations Face-Off and made his presence known when he dropped the gloves with Matthew Tkachuk of Team USA off the opening face-off in their rivalry matchup during the round robin of that tournament. Hagel isn’t known as a fighter, but he is known as a ferocious competitor. During the 2025-2026 season, he figures to give the Lightning 30 goals and 75-80 points. He’s shown that he can exceed those numbers but had a career-high on-ice shooting percentage (11.1) to do it last season.

Anthony Cirelli

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	25	30	55	0.71

A premier checking center who was a finalist for the Selke Trophy last season, Cirelli also had career highs with 27 goals, 32 assists, and 59 points. He has finished in the top five of Selke Trophy voting three times in the past six seasons and was a play-driving force last season, with a 55.0 percent Corsi even though he started just 42.4 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone. For a standout checking center, Cirelli is oddly mediocre in the face-off circle. Last season, he took 1,292 draws and won two more than he lost, marking only the third time in his career that he was above 50 percent on faceoffs. As the Lightning have improved their team depth, Cirelli has quality linemates on Tampa Bay’s second line. Last season, his most common linemate, by far, was Brandon Hagel, followed by Nikita Kucherov, Nick Paul, and Conor Geekie. So long as he still has Hagel on his wing, Cirelli should be able to accommodate any number of options on the other wing, whether that’s Paul, Geekie, Gage Goncalves, Oliver Bjorkstrand, or Yanni Gourde. Cirelli should contend for the Selke Trophy again in 2025-2026 while putting up at least 20 goals and 50 points.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	20	27	47	0.59

An often-underrated winger who the Lighting acquired from the Seattle Kraken at the trade deadline, Bjorkstrand suffered a lower-body injury late in the season and missed Tampa Bay’s first-round playoff loss to Florida. Bjorkstrand has scored at least 20 goals in six of the past seven seasons, with the lone exception coming during the shortened 2020-2021 season, when he scored 18 goals in 56 games. He is an excellent complementary player who has established himself as a play driver, with his line consistently outshooting the opposition and, often, doing so more often than his teammates. In his initial 18-game stint with the Lightning, Bjorkstrand was rocking a 56 percent Corsi, and his team outscored opponents 9-5 with him on the ice during five-on-five play. Having spent his career in Columbus and Seattle before joining the Lightning, Bjorkstrand is looking at a more competitive opportunity in Tampa Bay, a chance to play in the middle six on a team that has legitimate hopes of contending, and part of the reason for that is the improved depth that the Lightning acquired when they brought Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde in from Seattle. A fair expectation for 2025-2026 would be for Bjorkstand to contribute 20 goals and 45-50 points while consistently pushing play in the right direction.

Yanni Gourde

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	10	25	35	0.45

The feisty yet diminutive center has returned to Tampa Bay, the home of his greatest professional success as he was part of the Lightning’s two Stanley Cup wins in 2020 and 2021 before he joined the expansion Seattle Kraken. Gourde certainly has offensive capability – he is a three-time 20-goal scorer who has seen his production drop off in the past couple of seasons, finishing with 64 points (18 G, 46 A) in 137 games over the past two seasons. Even after rejoining the Lightning last season, Gourde did contribute 14 points in 21 games, but that included just one goal, so it’s fair to wonder what the 33-year-old has left in the tank. What works in Gourde’s favor is that Lightning head coach Jon Cooper is very familiar with him and Gourde has shown that he can move around the lineup, playing a lot at center, but shifting to wing as well. That will allow the Lightning to better mix and match in their attempts to find their best line combinations. There is the possibility that Gourde could be slotted in as a fourth line center in Tampa Bay, which would limit his offensive appeal, but he can still be expected to contribute 10 goals and 35 points during the 2025-2026 season.

Nick Paul

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	20	20	40	0.51

A versatile power forward who can play center or wing and move up and down the lineup, Paul has found a great fit in Tampa Bay since he was acquired from Ottawa during the 2021-2022 season. Paul has had back-to-back seasons with more than 20 goals and 40 points – the first two seasons in his career that he has crossed those thresholds. While Paul’s offensive breakthrough in 2023-2024 was partially due to his emergence on the power play, that was not so much the case in 2024-2025, when he scored 20 of his 22 goals at even strength. Those 20 even-strength goals should not be dismissed easily, as it tied for 57th in the league with the likes of Brock Nelson, Roope Hintz, Mitch Marner, and Clayton Keller. This is not to suggest that Paul is in their class as an offensive contributor, because he isn’t, but if he is putting up that kind of production at even strength as a 6-foot-4, 230-pound forward who can provide a more physical presence if that’s what is needed. Paul uses that size well, goes hard to the net and can fire the puck, so he should comfortably hold a spot in Tampa Bay’s middle six, but it is probably fair to expect that he might move around a bit as the Lightning look for the best combinations. While there may be a limit to what Paul is going to provide offensively, the past couple of seasons have established that he can deliver 20 goals and 40 points, so that is what Tampa Bay should expect in 2025-2026.

DEFENCE

Victor Hedman

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	53	65	0.83

A future Hall of Famer patrolling the Lightning blueline, Hedman delivered another excellent performance in 2024-2025, tallying 66 points (15 G, 51 A) and finishing fifth in Norris Trophy voting. It is the seventh time in his career that he has finished in the top five, and he also has a sixth and a seventh-place finish for good measure. He had slumped a couple of years ago, and there were some questions about whether he could still perform at an elite level, but he has dismissed those concerns with his outstanding play over the past two seasons. Hedman is a fixture on the Lightning power play and has registered 180 power play points since 2018-2019, ranking first among NHL defenceman, though, to be fair, he is just one point ahead of Cale Makar and two ahead of Quinn Hughes, who were both rookies in 2019-2020. At 6-foot-7, Hedman is a towering presence on the ice, yet he skates so fluidly that he just swallows up the space around opposing puck carriers. It is fair to wonder how much longer that Hedman will be able to play like this, as he will turn 35 in December, but there is little reason to believe that the end is near. Since that’s the case, it’s reasonable to expect a dozen goals and 65 points out of Hedman during the 2025-2026 season.

Darren Raddysh

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	6	30	36	0.46

A relative late bloomer, Raddysh is a 29-year-old right-shot defenceman who just completed his second full NHL season, and he has shown that he has the puck skills to make a solid contribution at this level. Raddysh’s ice time went down nearly two minutes per game last season, and he still finished with 37 points (6 G, 31 A) in 73 games. The Lightning were strategic in how they deployed Raddysh, as he started 62 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone, and while that might look like he’s being sheltered, it’s also a matter of playing to his strengths. He is not the most aggressive defender, but his strength lies in his ability to move the puck up the ice and make plays with the puck on his stick, either with a crisp breakout pass or finding a teammate in scoring position. While he does not have a great deal of NHL experience, he has plenty of pro hockey experience, so he should not be treated like a young up-and-comer. Considering that Raddysh appears to have held off any kind of initial challenge from J.J. Moser for second unit power play time, it should be reasonable to expect similar production during the 2025-2026 season. That means 35 points, with maybe 8-10 of those points coming via the power play, is entirely possible.

Ryan McDonagh

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	5	25	30	0.37

Returning to the Tampa Bay Lightning after a couple of seasons in Nashville, McDonagh thrived in his role as a two-way defenceman, contributing 31 points (4 G, 27 A) while leading the league with a +43 rating. There was some good fortune involved for McDonagh to lead the league in plus-minus, considering that the Lighting were outshot when he was on the ice during five-on-five play, but the combination of an on-ice shooting percentage of 11.2 percent and on-ice save percentage of .931 helped McDonagh to build a +22 goal differential during five-on-five play. He was also on the ice for seven shorthanded goals and had a +15 during other even-strength action. McDonagh was on the ice for one goal against while the Lightning were on the power play. His most common partner last season was Erik Cernak, and given their success, it’s hard to imagine the Lightning changing that up. Even though he is 36 years old, there is little reason to suspect that McDonagh is ready for the decline phase of his career. That may be coming soon, but he should still be a steady presence for the Lightning in 2025-2026. He doesn’t have a significant role on the power play, but should still be able to put up 30 points and 150 blocked shots while anchoring the Lightning’s second defence pairing.

J.J. Moser

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	4	20	24	0.29

Acquired from Utah in the trade that sent Mikhail Sergachev to the Mammoth, Moser’s first season in Tampa Bay was relatively uninspiring. He missed a significant chunk of time with a lower-body injury and finished with just 14 points (2 G, 12 A) in 54 games. He could offer much more than that, as Moser had shown before the trade that he is a shifty on his feet, skates well and also plays with a competitive edge. It should not go unnoticed that even though his ice time went down by a couple of minutes in his first season with Tampa Bay, his most common defence partner was Victor Hedman, so the team is giving him a good opportunity to have success at even strength. The challenge for Moser, when it comes to generating enough offence that would appeal to fantasy managers, is that he does not have a spot on either of the Lightning’s top two power play units, with Hedman and Darren Raddysh the most likely power play quarterbacks. Moser has the puck skills to at least handle a second unit power play, but he’s not assured of that spot, so that tends to put a damper on his statistical expectations for 2025-2026. Moser should probably be expected to contribute about 25 points, reflecting his quality even-strength situation and lack of power play time.

Erik Cernak

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	2	15	17	0.23

A certified banger on the Lightning blueline, Cernak has had trouble staying healthy, in part due to his physical style of play, but he did suit up for a career-high 76 games last season. He was a highly effective partner for Ryan McDonagh, and Cernak finished the season with a career-high 21 points (3 G, 18 A). He had more than 150 hits for the sixth time in seven seasons, with the only exception being during the shortened 2020-2021 season, when he had 98 hits in 46 games. Cernak has also blocked 308 shots in the past three seasons, so his appeal for fantasy managers lies in those peripheral numbers. He played a career-low 18:16 per game last season and doesn’t score enough to hold that much value, but banger leagues might appreciate those hits and while he’s not a menace on the ice, Cernak has recorded at least 50 penalty minutes in five of his seven seasons. He is most likely to fall in the 15-to-20-point range this season, so the hits and blocked shots are really the specific categories in which he might offer fantasy value.

GOAL

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
63	36	20	5	6	0.917	2.25

Only two teams in the NHL have taken the arrival of a star starting goaltender and used it as license to run them solo until they retire - and while it certainly earned Tampa Bay their postseason rewards, it feels every year like Andrei Vasilevskiy is finally going to start showing some signs of fatigue. The Tom Brady of Florida goaltending, Vasilevskiy has firmly cemented himself as the only name-brand starter the Lightning need for yet another season; they'll enter their 2025-26 campaign with Jonas Johansson and Brandon Halverson prepared to fill in as the requisite 'Body In Net' for twenty games a year for the second time in a row.

As was the concern before last season, Jonas Johansson put up some of the worst backup numbers the league had to offer - and Halverson was even worse, recording just one game with a sub-.800 save percentage over the course of the full 82-game year. Luckily for Tampa Bay, that regression that Vasilevskiy has to experience at some point didn't show up; he tied Connor Hellebuyck for the heaviest game workload of the year and still managed to finish with some of the best stats in the league overall. He remains an easy bet for Tampa on any given night, averaging about one dud of a game per month and putting up game-clinching performances almost 70 percent of the time. As long as he doesn't get injured, Tampa might not win the cup every year - but they won't exactly stumble, either.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – What about the Maple Leafs is not working? – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 01 Feb 2025 16:05:37 +0000

TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 24: Toronto Maple Leafs Winger William Nylander (88) skates with the puck during the NHL regular season game between the Winnipeg Jets and the Toronto Maple Leafs on January 24, 2024, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

The Maple Leafs are going through a bit of a rough patch, losing their past three games and six of their last nine. Even after factoring in that slump, though, they have an impressive 30-19-2 record. This downturn is also coming at a time when they’re missing one of their top forwards in John Tavares (lower body) as well as the continued absence of Anthony Stolarz (knee).

Toronto seems to be a city of anxiety when it comes to the Leafs, brought on by years of playoff disappointments, so success seems to be treated with an asterisk whereas slumps come with an “Oh boy, here we go again” attitude, but given the overall success of this team thus far in 2024-25 and the recent injuries, would it be best to dismiss the recent struggles as just the type of stretch that every good team goes through, or is there really an underlining issue being exposed?

Certainly, this is still a good team, but when people express those doubts about Toronto, they’re not disputing that. Instead, they’re saying this team isn’t good enough to be regarded as a serious Stanley Cup contender, and by that standard, I do think this stretch highlights an area of real concern. Toronto has managed just one goal in each of its past three games and ranks 13th in goals per game this campaign with 3.04. For a team that’s built around four elite forwards, to have a lack of offense is rather discouraging.

In fact, 74.5 percent of Toronto’s cap is eaten by forwards compared to 54.3 percent for Winnipeg (3.58 goals per game) and 56.5 percent for Tampa Bay (3.48 goals per game). In fact, the only other team close to the Maple Leafs in terms of the percentage of their cap spent on forwards is Washington, but while the Capitals are at 74.7 percent, their situation is weird because Nicklas Backstrom ($9.2 million against the cap) and TJ Oshie ($5.75 million against the cap) are on LTIR. Even if we were talking apples to apples, though, at least Washington is getting value at 3.49 goals per game.

So, what is it about Toronto that isn’t working? You’ve probably already guessed because it is the common argument against the Maple Leafs’ way of doing things: If you spend $46.65 million on four forwards (Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Tavares and Mitch Marner), then you don’t have much left over for the rest of your forward corps.

On another team, that could be supplemented by young players on entry-level contracts or players locked to team-friendly contracts. Toronto doesn’t have much of either on the forward side of things. Part of that is because for years now, Toronto has been trading futures for playoff runs that didn’t materialize.

The notable exception is Matthew Knies, who has 18 goals and 31 points in 47 appearances this campaign, but even that is about to go away given that this is the last season of his entry-level contract. Outside of him and the Big Four, no Maple Leafs player has reached the 15-goal or 25-point mark.

That also makes them particularly vulnerable to absences, such as the current one by Tavares. It does have to be said that Toronto did fairly well without Matthews during stretches of the campaign, but that was due to strong goaltending rather than other forwards filling the void. In Toronto’s first stint without Matthews from Nov. 5-27, the team went 7-2-0 despite averaging just 2.89 goals per game. Toronto was a mixed 3-3-0 during Matthews second absence from Dec. 21-Jan. 2 and once again managed just 2.83 goals per game.

That strong goaltending has been the backbone of the Maple Leafs this campaign, but we’ve seen vulnerability there since Dec. 14 with Toronto allowing 3.32 goals per game. It’s not coincidental that the Maple Leafs’ dip in goaltending is what’s made Toronto’s underwhelming offense -- something that’s nothing new this campaign -- gain attention. A lot can be forgiven or ignored as long as the team collectively is winning. It’s also not coincidental that Dec. 14 to present covers Toronto’s span without Stolarz, who had been terrific before getting hurt with a 9-5-2 record, 2.15 GAA and .927 save percentage in 17 appearances.

When Stolarz comes back, perhaps he’ll resume his dominant play, and Toronto’s mediocre scoring will once again seem acceptable. Once thing this stretch has highlighted, though: The Maple Leafs need him. Unlike some older versions of the Maple Leafs who were driven by offense, this team hasn’t consistently shown an ability to impress when not backed up by great goaltending.

Calgary Flames (Tue vs TOR, Thu vs COL, Sat vs SEA)

The Flames will wrap up their schedule before the 4 Nations Face-Off with a trio of home games. They’ll host Toronto on Tuesday, Colorado on Thursday and Seattle on Saturday. It’s fairly tough competition, but I wanted to highlight them anyway to discuss the trade that sent Andrei Kuzmenko, Jakob Pelletier and two draft picks (2025 second rounder, 2028 seventh rounder) in exchange for Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee.

In terms of what Calgary gave up, the 23-year-old Pelletier is a former first-round pick, but hasn’t developed into a top six forward yet, supplying four goals and 11 points in 24 outings this season before the trade. Meanwhile, Kuzmenko is a former 39-goal scorer, but he’s struggled to do much of anything with the Flames in 2024-25, collecting four goals and 15 points in 37 outings. In other words, the Flyers got some interesting pieces in this trade, but Calgary isn’t losing assets that were likely to help the squad in the short term.

The best piece Calgary got in exchange for that was Frost, who has 11 goals and 25 points in 49 appearances in 2024-25 after recording 41 and 46 points in 2023-24 and 2022-23, respectively. He’s a solid third-line center who looks fine on the draw with a 51.6 winning percentage this year. Nazem Kadri and Mikael Backlund will probably play ahead of Frost up the middle, and when Connor Zary (knee) comes back, Zary might shift to the wing to play alongside the newly acquired Flyers center.

Frost isn’t likely to turn heads, but he should be a nice secondary scorer for a team struggling to find the back of the net (2.68 goals per game). The only potential sticking point is Frost couldn’t complete Wednesday’s 5-0 loss to New Jersey, which might indicate he’s dealing with an injury. It’s probably nothing serious if the Flames pulled the trigger on this trade, but perhaps it will delay his debut with the Flames.

When it comes to Farabee, he’s another middle-six forward. The 24-year-old did look like he was on track to become more than that last campaign when he supplied 22 goals and 50 points in 82 games, but he’s regressed this year with eight goals and 19 points in 50 outings. Perhaps a fresh start with Calgary will do him some good, but he’ll probably begin his stint with Calgary on the third line with Frost (assuming Frost is healthy).

For the 25-18-7 Flames, the question is if these moves are enough to win them a playoff spot. The team is still very dependent on Dustin Wolf to be stellar in goal -- his 19-8-2 record, 2.51 GAA and .917 save percentage in 29 appearances is a big part of the reason Calgary’s in this position -- but this should at least give him a bit more goal support.

Chicago Blackhawks (Wed vs EDM, Fri vs NSH, Sat @ STL)

The Blackhawks will get to rest up early this week before hosting the Oilers on Wednesday and Predators on Friday. Chicago will then travel to St. Louis for a clash Saturday.

In most cases, I’d label the 18-24-7 Predators and 23-24-4 Blues are favorable matchups, but we’re talking about Chicago…so that doesn’t really work. Chicago is 16-30-5, giving the franchise good odds of getting a top two pick for the third straight campaign. The silver lining is that sets the stage for the Blackhawks to have an amazing core to build around, but in the meantime, Connor Bedard is burning the second year of his entry-level contract on a team that’s not giving him much to work with.

Not that Bedard is putting up Connor McDavid-like numbers, but the Blackhawks sophomore is doing his part with 14 goals and 44 points in 50 games. There’s only so much he can do when only one other player on the team, Teuvo Teravainen, has more than 30 points. Chicago also recently dealt Taylor Hall to Carolina, and while he wasn’t living up to expectations with the Blackhawks, his nine goals and 24 points in 46 outings was still good enough to rank fifth among forwards in Chicago’s scoring race before the trade.

Ryan Donato, who ranks third with 29 points (15 goals) in 49 outings, might be gone soon too. The 28-year-old is in the final season of his two-year, $4 million contract, so it’s fair to believe Chicago will jump at the opportunity to move him for a pick or prospect.

Seth Jones, who is only in the third season of his eight-year, $76 million contract, is likely to stay, though. That contract hasn’t looked great for Chicago and with the benefit of hindsight, the timing was awkward given the Blackhawks’ performance over the life of it. However, Jones has his moments, and he’s going through one of them. The 30-year-old blueliner has recorded at least a point in each of his past seven appearances, giving him two goals and 10 points in that span. If you’re looking for someone who will provide value this week in Chicago outside of Bedard, Jones is your best bet.

Los Angeles Kings (Wed vs MTL, Fri vs DAL, Sat vs ANA)

The Kings will spend the week at home, facing Montreal, Dallas and Anaheim on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday, respectively. They’ll try to enter the break on a positive note after going 2-7-1 from Jan. 11-30.

Los Angeles’ recent slump is due in large part to a lack of scoring. The Kings have managed three or more goals just once in that 10-game span. Anze Kopitar has been noticeably quiet. The 37-year-old is having a great campaign overall with 12 goals and 43 points through 49 appearances, but he’s supplied just four assists over his past 13 outings. It should just be a matter of time before the veteran gets going again, but perhaps fantasy managers should consider benching him until that time comes.

Phillip Danault has left plenty to be desired too after collecting only two points (one goal) across his last 11 games. He’s now on pace to record just 38 points this season, which would make it the first time he’s ever finished below the 40-point mark in a season where he’s logged at least 70 games.

Obviously, the slump has skewed the scoring pace downward, but there are areas of concern beyond that. Perhaps the most discouraging aspect of his game is his complete lack of power-play production. He had nine points with the man advantage last season and a career-high 20 in 2022-23, but he still hasn’t found the scoresheet on the power play this campaign. To make matters worse for him, with Drew Doughty back, Danault might find himself shifting out of the power-play makeup entirely.

Speaking of Doughty, he made his season debut following a knee injury without any sort of time management to ease him back in. He logged 23:51 of ice time Wednesday and another 27:43 the very next day. He didn’t get any points over his first two contests, but the Kings were shutout of back-to-back games, so that’s less of a Doughty thing and more of a byproduct of the team’s overall slump.

Los Angeles is a good enough team to overcome its recent struggles, and Doughty should be an effective defender the rest of the way. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him collect 15-20 points over what’s left of the campaign.

Montreal Canadiens (Tue @ SJS, Wed @ LAK, Sat vs NJD, Sun vs TBL)

The Canadiens are one of just a handful of squads set to play four games next week. They’ll start on the road with contests in San Jose on Tuesday and Los Angeles on Wednesday. Afterward, Montreal will host the Devils on Saturday and the Lightning on Sunday.

The Canadiens battled their way back in the playoff conversation by going 13-3-1 from Dec. 17-Jan. 21, but some of that momentum has been lost after dropping their past four games (0-3-1). Unfortunately, Jakub Dobes has lost some of his initial magic. He burst onto the scene by stopping 103 of 107 shots (.963 save percentage) across his first four starts -- all wins -- but he’s allowed at least three goals in each of his past three outings.

The 23-year-old is a promising netminder who has a 2.44 GAA and a .910 save percentage in 14 AHL appearances this season, but he’s not presently one of the best goaltenders in the world. A drop off from his hot start isn’t shocking and you similarly shouldn’t be surprised if he’s able to work his way back from it. He should average out to be a pretty decent rookie for the Canadiens in the second half of the campaign, but it would be too much to hope for Dobes to drag Montreal into the playoffs.

If the Canadiens are going to feature in the postseason, it will probably need to be the offense leading the charge. Patrik Laine has slumped recently too, though, being held off the scoresheet in each of his past three outings. Laine tends to be a very streaky scorer who sometimes seems unstoppable and on other occasions is a nonfactor. If he’s on your team, you have to work around these cold patches. Benching him wouldn’t be the worst idea in the short term but put him right back into the mix the second he finds the back of the net because one goal from him often kicks off a new hot streak.

When Laine starts going again, it should also help Lane Hutson, who is on a four-game scoring drought. Hutson isn’t solely dependent on Laine for offense, but it’s fair to say that the two have found chemistry, especially with the man advantage, so what’s good for one is often good for the other.

Hutson is also just one point shy of 40. The last time the Canadiens had a rookie defenseman hit that milestone was 1984-85 when Chris Chelios and Tom Kurvers surpassed that mark. The only other rookie blueliner to ever reach that milestone in franchise history was Guy Lapointe in 1970-71.

Ottawa Senators (Mon @ NSH, Tue @ TBL, Thu @ TBL, Sat @ FLA)

During a busier week, I wouldn’t be highlighting the Senators because they have a rather tough schedule, but because they’re one of the rare squads set to play in four games, I’ll feature them anyway. The Senators will be on the road all week, starting in Nashville on Monday before playing two games in Tampa Bay on Tuesday and Thursday. Ottawa will then conclude the week in Florida on Saturday.

In contrast to the Canadiens, Ottawa has won its last three games, bringing the Senators up to an 8-2-1 record dating back to Jan. 11. That’s propelled Ottawa to the third spot in the Atlantic Division, just four points behind Toronto and five shy of Florida.

If you had suggested at the beginning of the campaign that this would be the Senators’ position, many would have assumed that it was a sign that Linus Ullmark had worked out superbly, and while the goaltender does have an impressive 2.38 GAA and .915 save percentage, he’s been limited to 23 outings due to injury and hasn’t played since Dec. 22.

Even with him gone, though, goaltending hasn’t been an issue. Leevi Merilainen has looked fantastic, posting a 7-3-1 record, 2.19 GAA and .921 save percentage in 11 appearances. Although Anton Forsberg hasn’t been nearly as effective overall, he’s done his part recently too with a 3-1-0 record, 2.19 GAA and a .922 save percentage over his last five outings.

Ullmark is close to returning, so it will be interesting to see what Ottawa does next. The path of least resistance would be to send Merilainen back to the minors because he’s waiver-exempt. It feels wrong to demote a goaltender who has been doing this good, but you also need to keep in mind that he’s 22 years old. He might not get many starts in a scenario where all three goaltenders are healthy, so it’s probably better for his development if he’s with AHL Belleville and playing regularly.

That scenario assumes Forsberg can at least do adequately as the backup. He’s done well lately but still hasn’t been great overall, posting a 2.87 GAA and an .893 save percentage across 19 outings in 2024-25. If he starts struggling again, then Ottawa could push him to the side. At the very least, Forsberg has less job security now than he had at the beginning of the campaign.

Perhaps the Senators will consider seeing if there is a taker for Forsberg on the trade market. There might not be much demand for him, but it wouldn’t be surprising if that’s an avenue they’ve explored. Whatever consideration they gave to the possibility of trading Claude Giroux is probably over, though. The 37-year-old is in the final year of his contract, so it would have made sense to move him before the Senators got hot, but now that a playoff berth is looking realistic, there’s little reason to move one of their top six forwards, so fans of other contenders can likely cross him off their wish list.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Tue vs OTT, Thu vs OTT, Sat @ DET, Sun @ MTL)

Ottawa has surpassed Tampa Bay in the standing, but the Lightning will have an opportunity to reclaim their spot. As noted above, Tampa Bay is set to host the Senators on Tuesday and Thursday. After those two key games, Tampa Bay will hit the road, playing in Detroit on Saturday and Montreal on Sunday.

It might be a bit much to say Tampa Bay is slumping -- the Lightning earned a 3-0 win over LA on Thursday -- but at the least, the results have been mild recently. Dating back to Dec. 29, Tampa Bay has a record of 7-9-1.

The Lightning have scored just 2.47 goals per game during that 17-game stretch, so it’s fair to say offense has been at the heart of the problem. That’s despite Nikita Kucherov providing an impressive seven goals and 22 points in that span.

However, a lot of other players are a step below what they’re capable of producing. Kucherov’s typical linemates, Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point aren’t enduring a full-blown drought, but they’re usually better than the 13 and 10 points, respectively, they’ve collected over the past 17 games. Brandon Hagel (six goals, 14 points) and Victor Hedman (three goals, 12 points) have largely held their own over that stretch too, but their overall scoring pace has declined relative to what it was before Dec. 29.

Taken on their own, the dip of any of those four high-end producers wouldn’t be a big deal, but to have all four of them drop at the same time is noteworthy. That’s compounded by the more significant decline Anthony Cirelli has suffered. After averaging a point-per-game through his first 32 outings (14 goals, 18 assists), he’s managed just two goals and seven points across his past 17 appearances.

Let’s look at this another way: Of Tampa Bay’s top nine scorers through Dec. 28, only one, Darren Raddysh, has seen his point-per-game pace increase over Tampa Bay’s last 17 games. Meanwhile, seven of the nine have a point-per-game pace from Dec. 29-Jan. 30 that’s at least 26 basis points less than it was from the start of the campaign through Dec. 28. Even Kucherov, who as seen a significant decline between those two stretches -- 1.71 PPG compared to 1.29 PPG.

So, it’s not a one player problem. The team collectively has cooled, and there aren’t players outside of that core who have stepped up to fill the void.

Utah HC (Tue vs PHI, Thu @ CBJ, Sat @ CAR, Sun @ WSH)

Utah has a busy week ahead of it. The Hockey Club will host the Flyers on Tuesday before hitting the road with clashes in Columbus on Thursday, Carolina on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.

This has nothing to do with fantasy hockey, but I got to note that Utah will apparently not be able to use the nickname Yeti or Yetis, per The Salt Lake Tribune. That leaves the finalists as the Utah Mammoth, Utah Outlaws or sticking with Utah Hockey Club. I’ll be honest, I don’t like any of those options, but a good logo and time can cause branding to grow on people.

I just hope they don’t stick with Hockey Club. As a placeholder, I get it, and I understand it’s a perfectly common name in other sports -- as someone from Toronto, Toronto FC immediately jumps to mind, and that’s one of many MLS teams using FC. However, to me, Hockey Club feels like the absence of identity rather than an identity in and of itself. At the end of the day, though, it’s not for me to decide. The fans of the team are what matter here, but if I was picking, that would be last on my list.

Clayton Keller jerseys should sell regardless. He certainly is playing well enough to deserve it. He has 18 goals and 54 points in 49 appearances, and Keller’s been consistent too, not being held off the scoresheet for more than two games in a row this campaign.

Logan Cooley is sure to help define the Utah franchise too. The 20-year-old sophomore is enjoying a breakout campaign with 15 goals and 43 points in 50 appearances. However, Utah will have to get along without him for a while because he suffered a lower-body injury Wednesday and is regarded as being out indefinitely. That’s on top of the absence of Dylan Guenther (lower body), who has 16 goals and 34 points in 40 outings, but hasn’t played since Jan. 8.

With both of them gone, Josh Doan seems set to serve in a top six capacity and the first power-play unit. He hasn’t done much with his opportunities so far this campaign, collecting just two goals and five points in 19 outings, but he does still have upside and is worth keeping an eye on.

We might also see Matias Maccelli get a fresh opportunity. Maccelli has averaged just 13:58 of ice time this campaign and was even a healthy scratch Wednesday, but with Cooley out, Maccelli could find himself on the second unit. Maccelli has just 17 points (eight goals) in 48 outings this campaign, but he had 49 points in 2022-23 and 57 points last season, so a comeback isn’t out of the question.

Vegas Golden Knights (Tue @ NYI, Thu @ NJD, Sat 2 BOS)

Vegas will be on the road next week, playing against the Islanders on Tuesday, New Jersey on Thursday and Boston on Saturday. All of those adversaries are in the mix for a playoff spot, but only the Devils are a safe bet to make the postseason at this time.

Vegas seems all-but certain to make the playoffs too given its 31-15-6 record, but the Golden Knights have faltered recently, going 3-6-3 over their past 12 games. Vegas, which had been doing fairly well on the injury front, also got some bad news there. William Karlsson (lower body) has missed the past five games and isn’t close to returning. Cole Schwindt (lower body) will probably be out for a while too.

The Golden Knights attempted to help fill that void by inking Brandon Saad to a one-year, $1.5 million contract. Saad was an unrestricted free agent because he and the Blues mutually agreed to terminate what was left on his remaining on his five-year, $22.5 million contract, which would have run through 2025-26. Even after signing that deal with Vegas, Saad has cost himself millions of dollars by agreeing to walk away from his old deal, but that also highlights how much value he puts on playing in the NHL.

The Blues waived him Tuesday and he cleared because no team wanted his old $4.5 million cap hit. Saad could have simply reported to the minors and collected his paycheck, but the 32-year-old instead took this path, which led him to a fresh opportunity with Vegas.

Although he hasn’t been terribly productive this campaign, recording seven goals and 16 points in 43 outings with St. Louis, he can be an effective middle-six winger. Vegas will likely give him an opportunity to play on the third unit, perhaps alongside Raphael Lavoie and Nicolas Roy. Saad might also get a look on the second power-play unit, but that’s far from certain.

I wouldn’t expect big things from Saad, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he proves to be serviceable with his new team. He also might end up doing a little better when Karlsson returns -- it's entirely feasible Saad and Karlsson will end up playing together when that happens with Roy shifting to the fourth line.

One player Saad is less likely to play with is Tomas Hertl, which is a shame for Saad because Hertl is red hot. The 31-year-old is on an 11-game scoring streak in which he’s provided nine goals and 15 points. Funny enough, he has a neutral plus/minus, even during that terrific stretch, keeping him at a team-worst minus-10 overall. Hertl looks more appealing in terms of possession stats -- his 5v5 relative Corsi and Fenwick are plus-1.8 and plus-4.0, respectively, which suggests the team performs better when he’s on the ice -- but it seems plus/minus is destined to be the one area where he underperforms.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Young Players Getting Exciting Opportunities

Scott Cullen — Fri, 11 Oct 2024 18:42:36 +0000

_{PITTSBURGH, PA - SEPTEMBER 28:Buffalo Sabres center Jiri Kulich (20) skates with the puck during the second period in the NHL preseason game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Buffalo Sabres on September 28, 2023, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)}

Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. With so few games played, this week will look at some players getting exciting opportunities to start the year, including Dylan Guenther, Alex Laferriere, Matvei Michkov, and more!

Here is this season’s first edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Florida Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov was helped off the ice after suffering an apparent injury in Ottawa on Thursday night. If Barkov misses any time, Anton Lundell could be an intriguing addition for fantasy managers. Lundell is in his fourth NHL season and while he has not yet matched the 44 points that he had as a rookie, he did have 17 points in 24 playoff games last season. Lundell has one assist and nine shots on goal through the Panthers’ first two games.

#2 It has been a whirlwind year for Utah Hockey Club right winger Dylan Guenther, who finished last season with a flourish, putting up 23 points (12 G, 11 A) in his last 23 games. That earned him a contract extension in the summer. The 8-year, $57.14 million contract seemed like a lot given his lack of NHL experience, but it might already be a bargain. Teammates gush about Guenther’s shot and he has started this season with four goals in his first two games. As great as Guenther’s shot is, he is not going to keep scoring on 50 percent of his shots on goal, but there are early indications that Guenther and centre Logan Cooley are poised to have breakthrough seasons for Utah, with both skating on the second line and getting top unit power play time.

#3 Philadelphia Flyers rookie Matvei Michkov is the betting favorite to win the Calder Trophy, and it’s not merely based on his track record in Russia, which is admittedly excellent. Michkov had 41 points in 48 KHL games last season and the 19-year-old is starting his NHL career on Philadelphia’s top line and first power play unit. The Flyers are opening the season with Ducks defenseman Jamie Drysdale getting first crack at quarterbacking the Flyers’ power play. Drysdale is a smooth skater who has tallied 15 of his 50 career points on the power play.

#4 Former Flyers prospect Cutter Gauthier was traded to Anaheim last season and the Ducks are putting Gauthier in position to succeed, giving him time on the first line (with Leo Carlsson and Alex Killorn) and top power play right out of the gate. Gauthier had 65 points (38 G, 27 A) in 41 games as a sophomore at Boston College last season and he has impressive international credentials too, scoring nine points (7 G, 2 A) in 10 games at the 2023 World Championships and 12 points (2 G, 10 A) in seven games at the 2024 World Juniors.

#5 Second-year Los Angeles Kings left winger Alex Laferriere is starting the season on the Kings’ No. 1 line and top power play unit. Laferriere had 23 points (12 G, 11 A) as a rookie. He produced 73 points (35 G, 38 A) in 69 games in two seasons at Harvard, so there could be some offensive upside there, but with limited pedigree, he may be in a precarious position if he hits a slump.

#6 Kings defenseman Drew Doughty is out month-to-month after breaking his ankle in the preseason, so the expectation was that Brandt Clarke would move up to play on the Kings’ top power play unit. In Los Angeles’ first game, however, Jordan Spence played 4:26 on the power play for the Kings, compared to Brandt’s 3:34, so that is a situation worth keeping an eye on to see how it shakes out.

#7 With winger J.J. Peterka getting hurt in Prague, the Sabres have inserted top prospect Jiri Kulich into the lineup, taking Peterka’s place on Buffalo’s top line. Kulich was a first-round pick in 2022, and the 20-year-old winger has already played two seasons in the AHL, putting up 91 points (51 G, 40 A) in 119 games for Rochester.

#8 Montreal Canadiens rookie defenceman Lane Hutson is not quarterbacking Montreal’s top power play, but it may only be a matter of time. Hutson had a pair of assists against Boston on Thursday, giving him four assists in his first four NHL games, going back to last season. He produced 97 points (30 G, 67 A) in 77 games across two seasons at Boston University.

#9 A late summer free agent signing, Jack Roslovic is getting a chance to play on Carolina’s top line, with Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis. Roslovic set career highs of 22 goals and 45 points in 2021-2022, but if he is playing on Carolina’s top line, he could challenge those numbers.

#10 The Calgary Flames are entering a rebuilding process and part of that is giving young players significant opportunities. Samuel Honzek, a 2023 first-round pick has not only made the team, but he is getting a look on Calgary’s top line, alongside Nazem Kadri and Andrei Kuzmenko. Honzek, a 6-foot-4 winger, does not have a power play role yet, so his fantasy appeal is limited, but is very interesting as a long-term prospect. Connor Zary, a 2022 first-round pick, is taking on a bigger role in his second NHL season. Zary had 34 points (14 G, 20 A) in 63 games as a rookie last season and is getting first unit power play time to start this season. He scored a beauty in overtime to help the Flames to a win in Calgary on opening night and that should only fuel his confidence.

#11 There are times that it seems like there is a revolving door on Sidney Crosby’s wings in Pittsburgh, so don’t necessarily dive head-first into supporting these players, but Anthony Beauvillier and Drew O’Connor are skating on Sidney Crosby’s wings, at least while Bryan Rust remains out of the Penguins lineup. Beauvillier is coming off a down season, in which he scored just 17 points (5 G, 12 A) in 60 games, but he did net a pair of goals in Thursday’s win at Detroit. O’Connor had 33 points (16 G, 17 A) in 79 games last season and added a goal against Detroit.

#12 Opportunity is knocking in St. Louis for Dylan Holloway and Jake Neighbours, who are skating on a line with Robert Thomas, the Blues’ brilliant playmaking center. Holloway, who was signed to an offer sheet to lure him away from Edmonton in the summer, has one assist while averaging 15:02 ice time per game in his first two games with St. Louis. He averaged 10:21 of ice time per game in 89 games with the Oilers over the past two seasons. Neighbours broke through with a 27-goal season, including eight on the power play in 2023-2024 and should continue to play an even more prominent role in the Blues’ attack.

#13 Still eligible for the Calder Trophy after scoring 14 points (8 G, 6 A) in 24 games for the Dallas Stars last season, Logan Stankoven is starting the 2024-2025 season on Dallas’ top line, skating on the right side with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. Stankoven only played 12:29 in a season-opening win at Nashville on Thursday, but he also put up three assists, so that should keep him in a prime position.

#14 The New York Islanders signed Russian winger Maxim Tsyplakov as a free agent after he had 47 points (31 G, 16 A) in 65 games for Moscow Spartak in the KHL last season. The 26-year-old forward scored in his NHL debut against Utah on Thursday, and played an eye-popping 20:46, including 7:38 on the power play. Getting first unit power play time with the Islanders is a great opportunity for Tsyplakov to build on last season’s career-best results in the KHL.

#15 After scoring 40 points (21 G, 19 A) in 82 games as a rookie last season, Marco Rossi is centering Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello on Minnesota’s top line to start the 2024-2025 season. He is not getting first unit power play time – that goes to Kaprizov, Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy, and Brock Faber – but if Rossi can stick alongside Kaprizov long-term, that will raise his offensive ceiling.

#16 Oft-injured Ottawa Senators centre Josh Norris is healthy to start the season and getting a prime opportunity to skate on the Sens’ to power play, ahead of veteran Claude Giroux. Norris had 55 points (35 G, 20 A) in 66 games in 2021-2022, but has managed 33 points (18 G, 15 A) in 55 games across the past two seasons since then while dealing with persistent shoulder problems. Norris played more than 18 minutes in Ottawa’s season-opening win against Florida, recording an assist while skating on a line with Ridly Greig and Drake Batherson. If he’s healthy, Norris could offer quality fantasy value.

#17 With Florida Panthers defenceman Adam Boqvist out of the lineup after taking a puck in the face during the Panthers’ opening game, Aaron Ekblad is listed on Florida’s top power play unit, though Uvis Balinskis saw more power play time in Thursday’s loss at Ottawa. Ekblad is likely to play a big role on the Panthers’ blueline and has frequently been a contributor on the power play, with 111 of his 348 career points coming via the man advantage. Last season, he had just four power play points while delivering 18 points (4 G, 14 A) in 51 games, but with Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson departing via free agency, there are minutes to be earned on the Panthers power play. A healthy Boqvist might have the inside track, but Ekblad’s experience should not be overlooked.

#18 The Nashville Predators were movers and shakers in free agency and the arrival of 40-goal scorers Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault bumped Gustav Nyquist off Nashville’s top power play unit. Nyquist recorded a career-high 75 points last season, including 24 points on the power play, but he is not the same kind of proven scoring option, so that leaves Nyquist on the second power play unit in Nashville.

#19 Stamkos’ old team, the Tampa Bay Lightning are sorting out their own power play set up in his absence. To start the season, the Lightning are running two defencemen – Victor Hedman and Darren Raddysh – on their top power play unit, which is very unusual these days. Hedman has been a power play threat throughout his career, including last season when 31 of his 76 points were accrued with the man advantage. Raddysh, the 28-year-old blueliner, is something of a late bloomer, but he did have 33 points, including 11 on the power play, last season, which was his first full NHL campaign. It will be interesting to see how the Lightning play this going forward, whether they stick with the two defencemen or whether someone like Brandon Hagel or Nick Paul finds a spot on the top power play unit.

#20 After going through some tough seasons, including spending time in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, Jakub Vrana has returned to Washington, where his NHL career began, and earned a contract with the Capitals. Vrana, 28, has been an outstanding five-on-five scorer. Sincer 2018-2019, Vrana has scored 1.41 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. Among players that have played more than 50 games, there are only two – Auston Matthews (1.66) and David Pastrnak (1.41) – who rank higher than Vrana in that metric, and Pastrnak and Vrana are virtually tied. This doesn’t mean that Vrana is automatically going to provide fantasy value, as he has rarely been a power play performer, but for a player who was on the verge of washing out of the league, he is getting a fresh start and has the track record to suggest that he could be a productive secondary scorer for the Capitals.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Team Preview

Fri, 13 Sep 2024 16:00:01 +0000

ST. LOUIS, MO - JANUARY 14: Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) during a game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the St. Louis Blues on January 14, 2023, at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis MO (Photo by Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire)

The Lighting had 98 points (45-29-8) in the regular season and lost in the first round of the playoffs for a second straight year. They had enough high-end skill to be competitive, but with goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy not having his best season, they were not realistically among the top contenders. The Lightning ranked 15th in Corsi (50.7%) and 21st in expected goals percentage (49.1%) which certainly did not provide the foundation for a Stanley Cup championship. What the Lightning did have was an exceptional power play that scored a league-leading 10.98 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage. That masked a lot of the Lightning’s mediocrity. They also tied for fourth in penalty killing, allowing a mere 5.99 goals against per 60 minutes, so the season was a special teams success albeit not much else.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Lightning legend Steve Stamkos departed for Nashville in free agency, but the the team brought in Jake Guentzel, who finished last season in Carolina after years skating alongside Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh. The Lightning also added veterans Cam Atkinson and Zemgus Girgensons in free agency. Trade deadline pickup Anthony Duclair signed with the Islanders as a free agent and winger Tanner Jeannot landed in Los Angeles via trade. Defenceman Calvin De Haan signed as a free agent in Colorado. Tampa Bay made a couple of big moves on the blueline, trading to re-acquire Ryan McDonagh from Nashville and then sending Mikhail Sergachev to Utah in a deal that brought J.J. Moser in return. Is that enough to take the Lightning into a deeper playoff run?

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? For a team that has won two Stanley Cups and lost once more in the Final in the past five seasons, the only real success would be another Stanley Cup. However, for a team that has lost in the first round in back-to-back years, there is a smaller case ‘w’ to be earned by winning a round in the playoffs and getting back into the mix of teams that reach the final eight or final four before even worrying about another championship. For that to happen, the Lightning will need Vasilevskiy back in peak form and the players in the supporting cast will need to contribute consistently. This is possible, but maybe not the most likely outcome.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Because the Lightning roster is top heavy, an injury to one of the premier players – Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman, Vasilevskiy – could be difficult to overcome. The Lightning team doesn’t have the depth that the team did in 2020-21 when Kucherov missed the regular season and roared into the postseason to lead the playoffs in scoring on the way to winning the Stanley Cup. Vasilevskiy’s injury at the start of last season was difficult for Tampa Bay to overcome and as this team that does not typically invest a lot in its backup goaltender, Vasilevskiy’s importance to their success is even more than you might otherwise expect.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: This Lightning team is star-laden, and the big names are the ones driving the train, so any breakout candidates are likely to do so in supporting roles. A player like Michael Eyssimont is interesting, in that he is a late bloomer who will be 28 this season and has played 136 games in the NHL. What he has shown in that time is that he plays hard, will generate shots, and is not shy about playing a physical game when it comes to hits or fights, if need be. He plays with real commitment, likely forged by his battle just to reach the league, and if he gets a little bit of opportunity, he could provide secondary scoring for Tampa Bay.

Forwards

Nikita Kucherov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	36	80	116	1.41

Since the 2017-2018 season, Kucherov has racked up 639 points in 440 games, which ranks fourth in the NHL across that time frame. His 1.45 points per game ranks second, behind only Connor McDavid. Kucherov is a brilliant passer, who recorded 100 assists on his way to leading the league with 144 points in 2023-2024, the second time in his career that he earned the Art Ross Trophy. Kucherov played a career-high 21:40 per game last season, recording a career-high 3.78 shots on goal per game. His increased shot volume made him even more dangerous, leading to a career-high 44 goals, even though his shooting percentage (14.4 percent) was right in line with his career numbers. On top of playing the game with sublime skill, Kucherov also has an undercurrent of edgy play. He only had 22 penalty minutes and 45 hits last season, but he is not shy about taking a run at someone who he feels has wronged him on the ice, so he knows when to pick his spots. While Kucherov is a scoring threat in all situations, he has recorded at least 50 power-play points in back-to-back seasons, the only NHLer to reach that threshold in both years. Kucherov is one of the few players in the league who has a legitimate chance to win the scoring title and going into 2024-2025, it’s fair for the Lightning to expect 35-40 goals and 120 points from the playmaking winger.

Brayden Point

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	50	42	92	1.12

Tampa Bay’s No. 1 centre is coming off the third season of his career in which he finished with more than 40 goals and at least 90 points. He scored on more than 20 percent of his shots for the second consecutive season. Although the puck was moving in the right direction with Point on the ice, the Lighting were outscored during five-on-five play when Point was on the ice, so there is clearly room for improvement in terms of overall impact during even-strength play. His on-ice expected goals percentage of 50.7 was the lowest of his career, so it might warrant a tiny bit of caution for Point’s production moving forward. This is not to suggest that a player coming off back-to-back seasons with 90-plus points is somehow a risky pick, only that if Point can’t turn around the play-driving results, it would seem less likely that he could continue to score at the same rate, especially considering the high percentages that were responsible for his 2023-2024 production. At the same time, so long as Point has Kucherov on his wing and Point is getting first-unit power play time with such an elite scoring winger, the points should be there. That should lead Point to 40-45 goals and 85-90 points during the 2024-2025 campaign.

Jake Guentzel

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	40	48	88	1.13

When he first arrived in the National Hockey League, there was a tendency to dismiss Guentzel’s early production as a function of his playing with Sidney Crosby. Certainly, playing with Crosby did not hurt Guentzel, but he has established his own credentials as a scoring winger, and it was highlighted when he was traded to Carolina last season. Guentzel put up 25 points in 17 games for the Hurricanes (adding four goals and nine points in 11 playoff games) and it must be noted that Crosby did not play for the ‘Canes. Guentzel is not the strongest, not the fastest, and does not have the hardest shot. However, he is a smart and competitive player who consistently puts himself into dangerous scoring positions and it has led to big-time production. From 2018-2019 through last season, Guentzel had 410 points in 398 games, his 1.03 points per game in that time ranks 20th in the NHL. All of this made the veteran winger a highly demanded free agent and Tampa Bay won the sweepstakes to secure Guentzel’s services. He is an effective play-driving winger whose team outscored the opposition by double digits with Guentzel on the ice at five-on-five in four of the past five seasons. He should have a chance to remain incredibly productive, particularly if he is going to play with Kucherov and Point, two established stars. Guentzel could reasonably be expected to contribute 35 goals and 80 points in his first season for the Lightning.

Brandon Hagel

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	25	37	62	0.76

Coming off his fourth straight 20-goal season, Hagel has proven to be an excellent complementary winger for the Lightning, capable of moving around the lineup, from the top line with Point and Kucherov to further down the lineup, where he can elevate the level of speed and skill in the middle six. While Hagel was naturally more successful as a play driver when playing with Point and Kucherov, he had success with most of his linemates. Erik Cernak and Steven Stamkos were the only two players that played more than 200 minutes with Hagel that had Corsi or expected goals rates below 50 percent. Hagel uses his speed to create chances in transition and plays with a consistent drive that gets him to the front of the net often. From there, tips, rebounds and second-chance opportunities are there for the taking. A sixth-round pick of the Buffalo Sabres in 2016, Hagel had to battle just to make it into the league and he still plays with that fire, only now as an established scoring winger. The arrival of Guentzel likely means that Hagel will spend more time playing in the middle six but should also find first-unit power play time, so he should still be able to score. Although he put up a career-high 74 points last season, something in the range of 25 goals and 60-65 points seems a more reasonable expectation for 2024-2025.

Anthony Cirelli

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	29	47	0.57

Twice finishing in the top five of Selke Trophy voting, Cirelli has an outstanding reputation as a checking centre, though his defensive metrics are not quite at the elite level like they were a few years ago. It looked even worse in 2023-2024 because the Lightning had a .890 save percentage with Cirelli on the ice during five-on-five play, leading to Tampa Bay being outscored 54-49. Nevertheless, Cirelli delivered a career-high 45 points last season. Some of that was thanks to Cirelli scoring on 15.5 percent of his shots, after he scored on 11.1 percent of his shots in the previous three seasons. Strangely enough, for a strong checking centre, Cirelli is mediocre on faceoffs and last season’s success rate (49.2) matched his career mark at the dot. Cirelli has had the benefit of playing with high-end wingers at times in Tampa Bay and should have quality on his flanks in 2024-2025. That helps to elevate his offensive ceiling, but he has just 26 power play points across the past five seasons, which means it is not a big part of his game. Looking ahead to 2024-2025, Cirelli ought to be able to score between 15 and 20 goals on the way to contributing 40 points for the Lightning.

Nick Paul

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	20	20	40	0.50

A power forward who has found a home at centre in Tampa Bay, Paul hit career highs with 24 goals and 46 points last season. He played a career-high 17:16 per game and won a tidy 54.3 percent of his faceoffs. At 6-foot-3, 223 pounds, Paul can handle physical play and has recorded more than 100 hits in four of the past five seasons. Paul’s offensive breakthrough last season was largely due to his role on the power play, where he scored nine goals with the man advantage, making the most of his net-front position. The challenge for the Lighting, in the cases of both Paul and Cirelli, is that they both hit career highs last season so it might be difficult for them to expect even better production in 2024-2025. While he does not have a long track record of offensive production, there are some facets of Paul’s game that should remain consistent. He goes hard to the net, using his size to carve out space, and he has a hard shot that can be quite effective if he has room attacking on his off wing. Paul has made more of an impact offensively since joining the Lightning, in a trade for Mathieu Joseph and a fourth-round pick, so he should still be a solid centre in Tampa Bay’s middle six, but a reasonable projection likely falls around 20 goals and 40 points.

Cam Atkinson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	22	21	43	0.58

After missing the entire 2022-2023 season, Atkinson returned to action for the Flyers last season, but it was not exactly a roaring success. He was below 50 percent in terms of shot attempts and expected goals percentage, with the Flyers getting outscored 45-29 with Atkinson on the ice during five-on-five play. Those were atypical results for him, but he is also a 35-year-old winger who had just missed an entire season. Coming back from that is not at all easy. Will it go any better for Atkinson in Tampa Bay? He is a seven-time 20-goal scorer who, at his best, is a strong skater capable of playing in all situations. To his credit, even if his offensive production slipped, Atkinson was still a reliable penalty killer last season. Atkinson has a finisher’s touch around the net and knows how to get himself in position to score. The question, at this stage of his career, is if Atkinson is still capable of being that player. Indications from last season would put that in doubt, so projections for Atkinson should be relatively modest, along the lines of 15-20 goals and 35 points. That might not sound like a lot, but Atkinson has only exceeded that point total once since 2018-2019.

Michael Eyssimont

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	14	26	0.32

A late bloomer who did not stick in the National Hockey League until he was 26, Eyssimont had a solid showing in a depth role for Tampa Bay last season. Eyssimont earned his way into the league by playing a hard game which includes hitting and dropping the gloves when a middleweight bout is required. Eyssimont recorded 135 hits to go with 104 penalty minutes and six fights in 2023-2024. His contributions are not limited to that, however. He had 11 goals and 25 points, despite a shooting percentage of 7.4 percent, which is on the low end for forwards. Eyssimont’s shot rate of 9.27 shots per 60 minutes was the same as Nikita Kucherov, so he is providing plenty of value on the lower half of the Lighting’s forward depth chart. At the same time, he has had modest success offensively. His top AHL season saw him produce 42 points in 58 games and he had 39 points in 39 games during his last season at St. Cloud State. With a limited track record in the NHL, it’s probably reasonable to expect similar production to last season, with about 10 goals and 25 points from Eyssimont in 2024-2025.

Conor Sheary

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	11	17	28	0.36

A diminutive winger who has carved out a solid career, Sheary has scored 15 goals in a season four times in his career. His production fell off a cliff in his first season with the Lightning, managing just four goals and 15 points in 57 games. He played 11:06 per game, his lowest average time on ice since his rookie season in 2015-2016. Sheary also saw his shot rate, which was already modest at 1.88 per game in 2022-2023, drop to 0.88 per game in 2023-2024, and that is just not enough to hold down a regular role in the top nine. Although his offensive game was well off of his usual pace, Sheary’s possession numbers were just under 50 percent. While that’s hardly ideal, it’s not disastrous, either. Sheary’s most common linemates last season were Nick Paul and Michael Eyssimont, and he should have an opportunity to at least start the season in Tampa Bay’s top nine again, but if 32-year-old Sheary’s production stays the same, surely the Lighting would seek out better alternatives. While he has contributed 30 points or more five times in his career, 25-30 points would be a reasonable expectation for Sheary in 2024-2025.

DEFENCE

Victor Hedman

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	13	57	70	0.89

Just when it looked like Hedman’s game might be slipping, after a relatively down season in 2022-2023, the towering 33-year-old blueliner bounced back with a stellar year, putting up 76 points in 78 games and seeing his possession numbers move back in the right direction. Hedman also resumed his spot on the Lightning’s first power play unit, and he had 31 power play points, up from 14 the season before. Hedman has finished in the top seven of Norris Trophy voting in eight of the past nine seasons, a perennial contender every year. Hedman skates so well for such a large man. He has a powerful stride that swallows up so much ice and it allows him to join the rush on offense and take away space in the defensive zone. Since 2018-2019, Hedman has 364 points in 421 games, ranking second among defencemen, behind only Roman Josi. His 154 power play points in that time is the highest among all defencemen, so with the Lightning moving out Mikhail Sergachev in a trade with Utah, Hedman should be more comfortable as the No. 1 option on Tampa Bay’s power play. That makes it likely that Hedman will put up elite numbers, something like 70 points would be a fair expectation.

Ryan McDonagh

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	3	25	28	0.37

When the Lightning traded McDonagh to the Nashville Predators following the 2021-2022 season, he was clearly not happy. His first season with the Predators was somewhat of a struggle, but he was back in fine form last season, which is rather impressive for a guy who is now 35 years old. He remains a strong skater and plays with competitive fire even though he tends to play a very clean game. Not only was McDonagh’s defensive game more typical last season, but he finished with 32 points, his most since the 2018-2019 campaign. His most common partner was Roman Josi, which certainly helps, and the Predators outscored opponents 29-15 during five-on-five play with McDonagh and Josi on the ice. Last season marked 13 consecutive seasons in which McDonagh has logged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game and given the strong results, he will surely play a significant role in Tampa Bay, albeit maybe not with one of the premier offensive defencemen as his partner. He would certainly be capable of playing with Hedman, if needed, but McDonagh will likely be counted on to anchor another pairing. McDonagh can be expected to deliver 25-30 points, along with at least 130 blocked shots now that he is back in Tampa Bay for the 2024-2025 season.

J.J. Moser

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	6	24	30	0.37

Acquired from the Utah Hockey Club in the deal that sent Sergachev to Utah, Moser is a 24-year-old defenceman who has shown some promise through three NHL seasons. He is a smooth puckhandler who anticipates the play, can skate well and keeps the puck moving in the right direction. He is nimble on his feet and is competitive, but also not huge, so Moser can get overpowered in some situations. Nevertheless, he steadily continued to get better through his first three seasons and his situation in Tampa Bay is likely to offer much better support. With a stronger supporting cast, the Lightning should be able to deploy Moser in better situations that will increase his likelihood of having success. On the other hand, that stronger supporting cast could make it more difficult for Moser to even earn second unit power play time with his new team, considering that Darren Raddysh already has enjoyed some modest success with the Lightning last season. Moser has shown enough skill that he could get an opportunity to play on Tampa Bay’s second power play unit and that does offer some potential for his point production in 2024-2025. Based on his production to this point, 25-30 points would be the most reasonable expectation, but he has potential for more, too.

Darren Raddysh

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	6	22	28	0.34

A 28-year-old right-shot puck-moving defenceman coming off his first season in the National Hockey League, Raddysh took a long time to make it to the league but established that he can be a solid contributor when given the chance. After playing for Erie in the Ontario Hockey League for five seasons, Raddysh spent five more seasons in the American Hockey League, split between Rockford and Hartford, then he joined the Lighting and in his first two seasons with the organization, he played in 111 AHL games and 21 NHL games. It was fair, at that point, to believe that his window for an NHL career was closing. However, he did play six playoff games for the Lightning in 2022-2023 and showed well enough to earn a spot on the 2023-2024 roster, then he played in every game and ranked second among Lightning defencemen in points. Raddysh is not a punishing force on the blue line, but he is an intelligent player who makes a crisp first pass. He handles the puck like a veteran pro, even if much of his pro experience is outside the NHL. It appears that Raddysh has secured his position in Tampa Bay and can be expected to play a secondary role on the Tampa Bay blueline. He may have to compete with Moser for power play time on the second unit, so that could complicate his projections for the 2024-2025 season. That uncertainty makes it more reasonable to expect 25-30 points from Raddysh in the upcoming campaign.

GOAL

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
62	33	21	8	4	0.913	2.68

Almost every team in the NHL has undergone at least one major goaltending change since the Tampa Bay Lightning won their first of two back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021. The Lightning, though, appear poised to continue running it back until Andrei Vasilevskiy finally crumbles into a pile of dust; barring any major roster changes at the last minute, the Atlantic Division powerhouse will once again start their season with Vasilevskiy sitting as their one and only starting goaltender. The Lightning boast one of the most barren goaltending cupboards in the entire NHL, with only backup Jonas Johansson and minor leaguer Matt Tomkins signed to NHL deals behind the team’s Vezina and Conn Smythe winner.

This strategy has yet to fail them thus far, but it’s becoming harder and harder to feel confident that things will go well in net for Tampa Bay as Vasilevskiy suffers more and more wear and tear over the years. He remains one of the NHL’s most impressive instinctual minds, reading opponents at an elite level even on his worst days. But after playing nearly 500 regular season games in just 10 NHL seasons - only eight of which were spent fully at the NHL level - fatigue is clearly starting to settle in. It’s hard to consider Vasilevskiy a sure thing at this point, and Tampa Bay likely knows it - they just lack the cap flexibility to do much about it.

McKeen’s 2024 NHL Playoff Pool Picklist

Robert Howard — Sat, 20 Apr 2024 17:01:11 +0000

COLUMBUS, OH - FEBRUARY 25: Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid #97 prior to the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Edmonton Oilers at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio on February 25, 2023. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire)

In kicking off our 2024 NHL Playoff Pool coverage, Scott Cullen did an excellent breakdown of how to strategize for your pool. We recommend you give it a read and can link here.

The picklist below largely follows the strategy laid out in his article focusing on these broad categories – 1) Diversify 2) Stacking 3) First Round Winners 4) Power Play 5) Late Season Production 6) Injuries 7) Targeting playoff performers. Every playoff season will be different, of course, and simply following the Stanley Cup odds laid in many places including BetGM will provide a picture of which teams you should focus on with your picks to make the final, but the path to that result will vary. They currently have the Carolina Hurricanes (650) and the Colorado Avalanche (700) as odds on favourites to meet in the Stanley Cup Final, followed closely by Florida Panthers (700), Dallas Stars (800), Edmonton Oilers (800) and the New York Rangers (900).

If we look at McKeen’s team predictions for each of the first round series it becomes clear some teams have an easier path and their players will provide the best odds to play the most games. Lets look at how the brackets might shake out.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Dallas Vs. Vegas – We have Dallas winning in seven in a very hard-fought battle. A deep Dallas team versus the defending Champion who boasts several high-profile additions to end the season.

Winnipeg Vs. Colorado – This should be another war with the potential of a Winnipeg upset if Connor Hellebuyck rises to the occasion and Georgiev continues his late season struggles. Colorado should triumph in seven games.

Second Round Matchup: Colorado vs Dallas - The winner of these two close series meet and it means one of the highly ranked Colorado or Dallas will eliminate each other in the second round, assuming no upset in the first.

Edmonton Vs. Los Angeles – Edmonton should have the depth and firepower to take Los Angeles in six as we have predicted.

Vancouver Vs. Nashville – We hesitate to underestimate Nashville again, and this could be a close contest, but feel confident Vancouver will take it in six.

Second Round Matchup: Edmonton vs Vancouver – This should make for a thrilling series, but McDavid and company looked on a mission in the second half and should proceed to the conference final in six.

Therefore, the conference final in the west is projected to be Edmonton versus Colorado or Dallas (two very closely matched teams).

EASTERN CONFRENCE

Florida Vs. Tampa Bay – The recent two-time Stanley Cup champion meets last year’s finalist in the first round. While Tampa’s core may be aging, they are still a real threat if they get rolling. Florida showed they know how to win in the playoffs last year as well. Two goaltenders who can steal a series may make this a potential upset, but Florida should prevail in six.

Boston Vs. Toronto – Old nemesis meet again in the first round. Boston has beaten Toronto consistently in the playoffs in recent years and won all head-to-head matchups this season. There are questions about both teams, but the series should go seven and really could go either way.

Second Round Matchup: Boston Vs. Florida – with both series offering potential upsets, Florida players are ranked higher than Boston, and have ranked some high scoring Leafs and reasonable picks given they could well make it to the second round and can provide a challenge for both teams.

Carolina Vs. New York Islanders – A deep Carolina team adding some significant pieces at the deadline and should beat the Islanders here in five games.

New York Rangers Vs. Washington – The Rangers should be heavy favourites in this series and should beat the Capital in five or six games.

Second Round Matchup: - Carolina vs New York Rangers – of the second-round matchups this is the one we are most comfortable predicting. It should be a close series with the Hurricanes moving on to the Conference Final against Florida.

The following picklist is based on those possible outcomes. The first round offers some interesting matchups that could leave a favourite or two on the outside looking in early. Stack up on the teams you feel have the best odds of taking the cup but understand there are always upsets. Looking at the above, the teams with the easiest path to the conference final are Edmonton and Carolina. Colorado and Dallas are favourites of both the oddsmakers and ourselves to win a cup, but one of them will bow out by the second round. Florida has depth but will have to go through Tampa and either Boston or Toronto.

Good luck whichever strategy you choose.

Subscribers can download an excel version of this list in subscriber downloads

RANK	Player	Team	Pos	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	P/GP	EVG	EVP	PPG	PPP
1	Connor McDavid	EDM	C	76	32	100	132	35	30	1.74	24	87	7	44
2	Nathan MacKinnon	COL	C	82	51	89	140	35	42	1.71	41	92	10	48
3	Sebastian Aho	CAR	C	78	36	53	89	34	36	1.14	24	55	11	32
4	Jake Guentzel	CAR	C	67	30	47	77	25	22	1.15	25	55	5	22
5	Leon Draisaitl	EDM	C	81	41	65	106	26	76	1.31	20	65	21	39
6	Mikko Rantanen	COL	R	80	42	62	104	19	50	1.3	28	64	14	40
7	Cale Makar	COL	D	77	21	69	90	15	16	1.17	13	47	7	39
8	Sam Reinhart	FLA	C	82	57	37	94	29	31	1.15	25	55	27	34
9	Matthew Tkachuk	FLA	L	80	26	62	88	19	88	1.1	19	55	6	32
10	Aleksander Barkov	FLA	C	73	23	57	80	33	24	1.1	18	49	5	29
11	Artemi Panarin	NYR	L	82	49	71	120	18	24	1.46	38	75	11	44
12	Jason Robertson	DAL	L	82	29	51	80	19	22	0.98	20	52	9	28
13	Roope Hintz	DAL	C	80	30	35	65	26	22	0.81	19	42	8	19
14	Seth Jarvis	CAR	C	81	33	34	67	23	14	0.83	18	44	13	20
15	Andrei Svechnikov	CAR	R	59	19	33	52	13	58	0.88	14	35	5	17
16	Evan Bouchard	EDM	D	81	18	64	82	34	32	1.01	10	47	8	35
17	Zach Hyman	EDM	L	80	54	23	77	36	48	0.96	39	57	15	20
18	Valeri Nichushkin	COL	R	54	28	25	53	5	22	0.98	12	30	16	21
19	Nikita Kucherov	TBL	R	81	44	100	144	8	22	1.78	31	91	13	53
20	Auston Matthews	TOR	C	81	69	38	107	31	20	1.32	51	77	18	29
21	David Pastrnak	BOS	R	82	47	63	110	21	47	1.34	35	75	12	35
22	Jack Eichel	VGK	C	63	31	37	68	4	27	1.08	20	44	11	22
23	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	EDM	C	80	18	49	67	10	36	0.84	14	38	4	26
24	Joe Pavelski	DAL	C	82	27	40	67	12	20	0.82	16	46	11	21
25	Matt Duchene	DAL	C	80	25	40	65	15	20	0.81	19	49	6	16
26	Mika Zibanejad	NYR	C	81	26	46	72	15	30	0.89	12	35	12	31
27	Martin Necas	CAR	C	77	24	29	53	-9	42	0.69	16	40	8	13
28	Vincent Trocheck	NYR	C	82	25	52	77	16	55	0.94	13	52	11	24
29	Chris Kreider	NYR	L	82	39	36	75	19	26	0.91	19	41	18	29
30	William Nylander	TOR	R	82	40	58	98	1	24	1.2	26	59	11	35
31	Mitch Marner	TOR	R	69	26	59	85	21	18	1.23	17	57	8	27
32	Adam Fox	NYR	D	72	17	56	73	21	36	1.01	10	38	6	33
33	Miro Heiskanen	DAL	D	71	9	45	54	8	36	0.76	7	33	2	21
34	Carter Verhaeghe	FLA	C	76	34	38	72	17	36	0.95	26	51	8	21
35	Mark Stone	VGK	R	56	16	37	53	1	22	0.95	10	35	4	14
36	Wyatt Johnston	DAL	C	82	32	33	65	14	38	0.79	26	52	3	10
37	Casey Mittelstadt	COL	C	80	18	39	57	10	32	0.71	15	48	3	9
38	Jonathan Drouin	COL	L	79	19	37	56	12	28	0.71	14	37	5	19
39	Artturi Lehkonen	COL	L	45	16	18	34	11	14	0.76	9	22	7	12
40	Sam Bennett	FLA	C	69	20	21	41	17	100	0.59	15	29	5	12
41	Vladimir Tarasenko	FLA	R	76	23	32	55	13	12	0.72	20	46	3	9
42	Jamie Benn	DAL	L	82	21	39	60	8	41	0.73	13	35	7	22
43	Tyler Seguin	DAL	C	68	25	27	52	10	26	0.76	22	42	3	8
44	J.T. Miller	VAN	C	81	37	66	103	32	58	1.27	25	61	10	40
45	Quinn Hughes	VAN	D	82	17	75	92	38	38	1.12	12	54	5	38
46	Elias Pettersson	VAN	C	82	34	55	89	20	12	1.09	21	56	13	31
47	Brad Marchand	BOS	L	82	29	38	67	2	78	0.82	19	37	7	26
48	Charlie Coyle	BOS	C	82	25	35	60	-2	38	0.73	17	44	7	11
49	Jonathan Marchessault	VGK	R	82	42	27	69	-2	40	0.84	34	52	8	17
50	Tomas Hertl	VGK	C	54	17	21	38	-28	22	0.7	10	26	6	11
51	Teuvo Teravainen	CAR	L	76	25	28	53	15	10	0.7	15	32	9	17
52	Mason Marchment	DAL	L	81	22	31	53	22	54	0.65	16	42	6	11
53	Thomas Harley	DAL	D	79	15	32	47	28	18	0.59	13	37	1	9
54	John Tavares	TOR	C	80	29	36	65	2	30	0.81	20	45	9	20
55	Pavel Zacha	BOS	C	78	21	38	59	12	18	0.76	15	44	6	15
56	Brayden Point	TBL	C	81	46	44	90	-16	14	1.11	31	58	15	32
57	Steven Stamkos	TBL	C	79	40	41	81	-21	34	1.03	21	42	19	39
58	Victor Hedman	TBL	D	78	13	63	76	18	76	0.97	9	45	4	31
59	Brandon Hagel	TBL	L	82	26	49	75	1	79	0.91	24	66	2	7
60	Evander Kane	EDM	L	77	24	20	44	-4	85	0.57	21	36	2	7
61	Logan Stankoven	DAL	C	24	6	8	14	10	4	0.58	5	12	1	2
62	Devon Toews	COL	D	82	12	38	50	28	18	0.61	12	43	0	5
63	Charlie McAvoy	BOS	D	74	12	35	47	4	86	0.64	11	34	1	13
64	Morgan Rielly	TOR	D	72	7	51	58	7	27	0.81	6	38	1	20
65	Brock Boeser	VAN	R	81	40	33	73	23	14	0.9	24	48	16	25
66	Alexis Lafrenière	NYR	L	82	28	29	57	2	40	0.7	26	51	2	6
67	Mark Scheifele	WPG	C	74	25	47	72	19	57	0.97	19	54	6	18
68	Kyle Connor	WPG	L	65	34	27	61	-6	6	0.94	29	42	5	19
69	Chandler Stephenson	VGK	C	75	16	35	51	-9	25	0.68	10	35	4	13
70	Mattias Ekholm	EDM	D	79	11	34	45	44	47	0.57	8	41	2	3
71	Josh Morrissey	WPG	D	81	10	59	69	34	44	0.85	8	50	2	19
72	Ross Colton	COL	C	80	17	23	40	-8	61	0.5	14	35	3	5
73	Warren Foegele	EDM	L	82	20	21	41	3	47	0.5	18	38	1	1
74	Brady Skjei	CAR	D	80	13	34	47	15	40	0.59	11	31	1	12
75	Brent Burns	CAR	D	82	10	33	43	19	20	0.52	5	22	4	20
76	William Karlsson	VGK	C	70	30	30	60	15	22	0.86	22	43	7	15
77	Shea Theodore	VGK	D	47	5	37	42	4	6	0.89	3	27	2	15
78	Filip Forsberg	NSH	L	82	48	46	94	16	43	1.15	35	62	13	32
79	Roman Josi	NSH	D	82	23	62	85	12	45	1.04	14	51	9	33
80	Sean Monahan	WPG	C	83	26	33	59	-1	12	0.71	15	36	9	21
81	Gustav Forsling	FLA	D	79	10	29	39	56	43	0.49	9	37	1	2
82	Brandon Montour	FLA	D	66	8	25	33	1	46	0.5	7	16	1	17
83	Mathew Barzal	NYI	C	80	23	57	80	-4	34	1	18	55	5	25
84	Noah Dobson	NYI	D	79	10	60	70	12	36	0.89	9	45	1	24
85	Nikolaj Ehlers	WPG	L	82	25	36	61	27	29	0.74	25	54	0	7
86	Tyler Toffoli	WPG	C	79	33	22	55	-6	14	0.7	22	37	11	18
87	Cole Perfetti	WPG	C	71	19	19	38	13	12	0.54	14	27	5	11
88	Gabriel Vilardi	WPG	C	47	22	14	36	11	14	0.77	13	22	9	14
89	Anthony Duclair	TBL	L	73	24	18	42	-8	34	0.58	19	30	5	12
90	Brock Nelson	NYI	C	82	34	35	69	-5	28	0.84	24	48	9	19
91	Bo Horvat	NYI	C	81	33	35	68	-1	39	0.84	22	48	10	18
92	Adrian Kempe	LAK	R	77	28	47	75	13	72	0.97	20	44	5	27
93	Kevin Fiala	LAK	L	82	29	44	73	1	62	0.89	18	43	11	30
94	Anze Kopitar	LAK	C	81	26	44	70	11	22	0.86	16	44	9	23
95	Jake DeBrusk	BOS	L	80	19	21	40	4	18	0.5	15	28	2	10
96	Tyler Bertuzzi	TOR	L	80	21	22	43	2	53	0.54	16	37	5	6
97	Ivan Barbashev	VGK	C	82	19	26	45	15	42	0.55	16	40	3	5
98	Gustav Nyquist	NSH	C	81	23	52	75	7	8	0.93	17	49	5	24
99	Ryan O'Reilly	NSH	C	82	26	43	69	6	18	0.84	12	41	14	28
100	Max Domi	TOR	C	80	9	38	47	10	118	0.59	8	45	1	2

2024 NHL PLAYOFFS: Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 20 Apr 2024 12:56:30 +0000

TAMPA, FL - FEBRUARY 17: Florida Panthers center Carter Verhaeghe (23) scores a goal during the NHL Hockey match between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers on February 17th, 2024 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)

Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Two years ago, the Panthers were embarrassed by the Lightning, who swept Florida in the second round of the playoffs. It led to Florida making some bold moves, the biggest of which was including Jonathan Huberdeau in a package to Calgary to acquire Matthew Tkachuk in the summer of 2022. The new-look Panthers excelled in the 2023 playoffs, going as far as the Stanley Cup Finals, but that path never took them through Tampa Bay.

This year is different, and Florida will be looking for some revenge. After cruising to the postseason with a 52-24-6 record while the Lightning showed weakness, ultimately settling for the first wild card seed with their 45-29-8 finish, Florida is the clear favorite in this series. Still, many of the remnants of the 2020-2022 Lightning, who reached the finals in three straight years and won the Cup twice, remain, so it would be risky to dismiss them out of hand.

In particular, the Lightning’s offensive corps mirrors that of their recent glory days. Tampa Bay finished fifth in scoring with 3.51 goals per game. The squad boasts an obvious Hart Trophy contender in Nikita Kucherov, who finished with 44 goals and 144 points to become just the fifth player in NHL history to reach the 100-assist milestone after Bobb Orr, Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux and Connor McDavid, who also accomplished the feat this year. Kucherov alone would make Tampa Bay dangerous, but the squad also boasts two other players with at least 40 goals each in Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos along with another major offensive force in Brandon Hagel (26 goals, 75 points) and one of the league’s best offensive defensemen in Victor Hedman (13 goals, 76 points).

To put that into context, 40 players in the entire league finished with 75 or more points, which equates to an average of 1.25 per team. Tampa Bay employed five of them or 12.5 percent of the entire field.

The scoring threats don’t end there either. Nicholas Paul (24 goals, 46 points) and Anthony Cirelli (20 goals, 45 points) might not be stars, but they’re luxuries to have in the middle six. Tampa Bay also added to its embarrassment of riches by snagging Anthony Duclair in a trade from San Jose on March 7. The 28-year-old has meshed well with the Lightning, providing eight goals and 15 points in 17 outings since his acquisition. He also adds another interesting wrinkle to the series after playing for Florida from 2020-23.

All this is to say that there is still a wealth of talent in Tampa Bay, but there is also a reason why the Lightning are the underdogs in this series. Tampa Bay finished with an xGA/60 of 3.14, ranking 18th in the league, which suggests that its defense was mediocre. If you look back at Tampa Bay’s xGA/60 over the past few years, that’s nothing new, but you might not have associated the Lightning with defensive issues before because Andrei Vasilevskiy was able to mask them. He couldn’t in 2023-24, though, finishing with a 30-20-2 record, 2.90 GAA and .900 save percentage.

Meanwhile, Florida ranked fifth in xGA/60 (2.78) in 2023-24 and that strong blue line was complimented by Sergei Bobrovsky, who posted a 36-17-4 record, 2.37 GAA and .915 save percentage across 58 appearances. Although Bobrovsky ultimately did fine in the 2022 playoff series against the Lightning despite being swept, the Panthers entered that series with a reputation as an offensive juggernaut, finishing first in the 2021-22 regular season in scoring (4.11 goals per game), but a mediocre team in their own end, tying for 12th defensively (2.95 goals allowed per contest) while Tampa Bay was seen as the more balanced squad. This time around, the roles are reversed.

Florida might not be able to keep pace with the Panthers in a high-scoring affair. They certainly have their own offensive weapons, like Sam Reinhart (57 goals, 94 points), Matthew Tkachuk (26 goals, 88 points), Aleksander Barkov (23 goals, 80 points) and Carter Verhaeghe (34 goals, 72 points), but the Panthers still don’t quite measure up to Tampa Bay in that regard. However, the Panthers don’t share in the Lightning’s defensive shortcomings.

In the end, that might be what tilts this series in Florida’s favor.

KEY MATCHUPS

Sergei Bobrovsky vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy

We touched on the goaltending above, but it’s worth repeating because it figures to be such a big storyline. Vasilevskiy was nothing short of phenomenal during the Lightning’s 2022 sweep of the Panthers, stopping 151 of 154 shots (.981 save percentage). Bobrovsky did fine in that series, turning aside 113 of 123 shots (.919 save percentage), but he just couldn't keep pace.

Based on Vasilevskiy’s inconsistent play in the 2023-24 campaign, though, Tampa Bay might not get the same type of elite goaltending out of him this time around. However, given the Lightning’s potent offense, Bobrovsky isn’t a sure thing to succeed either.

If nothing else, both netminders have plenty of experience to lean on. Vasilevskiy ranks 17th all-time among goaltenders in playoff games with 110 while Bobrovsky is in a three-way tie for 40th with 70.

Vladimir Tarasenko vs. Anthony Duclair

In the battle between midseason acquisitions, which will make a bigger mark? At a glance, Tarasenko seems like he would have the obvious edge. He has 55 points in 76 contests compared to Duclair’s 42 points in 73 outings. Tarasenko also has the advantage in terms of playoff experience, having logged 97 career postseason games over a stretch that includes St. Louis’ 2019 championship.

Duclair might surprise, though. He has a history with Florida, so he’s very familiar with his adversaries.

Ultimately, it wouldn’t be surprising to see both do great after adjusting well with their new clubs. Duclair is on a roll going into this series with three goals and six points over his past seven appearances while Tarasenko has four goals and 11 points over his last 12 games.

Aleksander Barkov vs. Steven Stamkos

Neither team captain is the best their squad has to offer, but both are high-end players. Barkov finished the 2023-24 campaign with 23 goals and 80 points across 73 contests. It was the third straight campaign he surpassed the 75-point mark and the third time in his career that he finished with at least 80 points. Meanwhile, Stamkos hit the 40-goal milestone for the second time in three years and the seventh time in his career.

Barkov has more to prove. Not only is he the one without a championship, but Barkov didn’t look great in the Panthers’ previous series against Tampa Bay, finishing with one assist and a team-worst minus-5 in the five-game series. However, if we’re talking about motivation, this might be Stamkos’ last dance with Tampa Bay. That’s far from certain, but the 34-year-old center doesn’t have a contract beyond this campaign, so after 1,082 career regular-season games and two Cup victories with Tampa Bay, it remains to be seen if he’ll be a member of the Lightning beyond this playoff run.

X-FACTOR

Florida Panthers: So much comes down to the play of Bobrovsky. He played such a big role in the Panthers’ run to the finals in 2023, posting a 2.21 GAA and a .935 save percentage over the first three series, but Vegas figured him out completely in the Stanley Cup Final, resulting in him finishing that five-game set with a 4.70 GAA and an .844 save percentage. Bobrovsky’s whole career has been one of extremes. He’s a two-time Vezina Trophy winner and he’s coming off a great campaign, but there have been plenty of rough seasons in there too. So which Bobrovsky are the Panthers getting for their playoff run?

Tampa Bay Lightning: One area where the Lightning excelled this campaign was with the man advantage. Tampa Bay finished with a 28.6 percent conversion rate on the power play, which is the third best in the salary cap era.

FANTASY PLAYERS TO TARGET

Florida has a really strong team this year, but playing Tampa Bay in the first round makes its players a somewhat risky proposition, especially because they’ll face one of Boston or Toronto in the second round, should the Panthers get that far. No team has an easy path to the Conference Final, but Florida’s is especially rough.

That said, Tkachuk, Barkov and Verhaeghe all have obvious value. Don’t underestimate Reinhart either. His 24.5 shooting percentage from the regular season might raise alarm bells, but part of the reason why Reinhart had such a high shooting percentage was how strategic he was when he fired the puck. Of his 233 total shots, 97, or 41.6 percent, were in high-danger locations. Contrast that with Nathan MacKinnon, who had 51 goals on 404 shots, but just 86 of them were in high-danger locations. That translates to 21.3 percent for MacKinnon and means that even though the Avalanche star shot far more often than Reinhart, the Panthers forward actually had more shots in prime locations. In other words, Reinhart’s high shooting percentage isn’t the red flag it appears to be on the surface, so draft him with the confidence you would of a forward who breached the 50-goal milestone.

Tampa Bay is an even bigger gamble than Florida. It’s tempting to take Kucherov early, however, you need to regard him as a high-risk, high-reward player because the Lightning might not go far this year, but he will surely be among the league leaders by the end of the playoffs if they do. Duclair is also an interesting sleeper. Some might underestimate him by not giving enough weight to how strong he’s been with Tampa Bay, but of course, there’s also inherent risk in taking him because of the Lightning’s difficult path forward.

If you are in a daring enough mood to bet on the Lightning, then naturally Vasilevskiy would be the boldest of grabs, provided you’re in a format with goaltenders. He had a rough season, but there’s always that chance he’ll show up for the playoffs. Certainly, he’s had some amazing postseason runs before and boasts a career 2.37 GAA and .921 save percentage in the playoffs, so you never know.

PREDICTION

I just threw out Vasilevskiy as a bold selection and, sure, it could work out, but there’s a reason I termed taking him as “bold.” The reality is that the netminder just hasn’t had a good campaign and Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t strong enough to bail its goaltender out if he gets in a jam. The Lightning’s alternatives -- Jonas Johansson (lower body) when healthy and Matt Tomkins -- aren't up to the task either, in the event Vasilevskiy struggles.

This time, it should be Florida beating Tampa Bay, though it will likely take the Panthers six games to do so.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (March 18th to 24th) – Detroit in late season collapse, need to turn it around fast – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 16 Mar 2024 17:18:48 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 04: Detroit Red Wings right wing Patrick Kane (88) skates with the puck during an NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on January 4, 2024 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)

For much of the season, it looked like Detroit was going to make the playoffs. As recently as Feb. 27, the Red Wings were 33-20-6 with an eight-point cushion in the fight for a wild-card spot. After dropping seven straight games, though, Detroit finds itself tied with the Islanders for the second wild-card seed, and the Red Wings’ situation is even worse because they’ve played one game more than New York. Meanwhile, Washington is just one point behind the Islanders and Red Wings, putting further pressure on Detroit.

Goaltending has played a big part in Detroit’s collapse. Alex Lyon was having a strong season, posting a 17-8-2 record, 2.68 GAA and .916 save percentage across 27 contests through Feb. 24. However, Lyon has allowed at least three goals in each of his last seven appearances, resulting in an ugly .856 save percentage in that span. However, Ville Husso (lower body) is still unavailable, and James Reimer has a 6-7-2 record, 3.09 GAA and .903 save percentage in 19 contests this campaign, so the Red Wings don’t have a good alternative to pivot to during Lyon’s struggles.

To be fair, it’s not just Lyon. Detroit has managed just 1.71 goals per game during its losing streak. Patrick Kane and Lucas Raymond have each managed just three points over that seven-game span. Alex DeBrincat has no goals and one assist in the same stretch. Those are key forwards for Detroit, so for them all to go cold at the same time is disastrous.

The Red Wings could still rebound and make the postseason, but they need to do it soon. Otherwise, this season will go down as one of the most painful late season collapses for a team in recent memory.

Carolina Hurricanes – TUE @ NYI, THU VS PHI, FRI @ WAS (BTB), SUN VS TOR

The Hurricanes’ playoff spot is all but guaranteed, but Carolina is still chasing the Rangers in the battle for the Metropolitan Division title. They’ll continue that pursuit next week starting with a road game against the Islanders on Tuesday. After that, Carolina will host the Flyers on Thursday, play in Washington on Friday and conclude with a home contest versus the Maple Leafs on Sunday.

The Hurricanes are pretty healthy right now and even have Frederik Andersen back after missing roughly four months due to a blood clotting issue. He’s been fantastic since returning, posting a 3-0-0 record, 1.01 GAA and .955 save percentage across three starts. Carolina has been rotating between him and Pyotr Kochetkov, who has saved 46 of 49 shots (.939 save percentage) over his last two contests, bringing him to 17-12-3 with a 2.35 GAA and a .911 save percentage through 34 appearances this season.

Andersen and Kochetkov are likely to split the workload for the remainder of the season, which doesn’t leave much of a role for Spencer Martin. It wouldn’t be surprising if Martin accepts a brief AHL conditioning stint in a week or two for the sake of staying fresh ahead of the playoffs. Although he’s certainly far from Carolina’s first choice going forward, it’s still helpful to have him as a fallback plan should the Hurricanes run into injury troubles.

Jake Guentzel (upper body) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (personal) have also returned and made their Hurricanes debuts after being acquired from Pittsburgh and Washington, respectively. The duo appears set to play together on the second line, providing the Hurricanes with scoring threats outside of the Andrei Svechnikov-Sebastian Aho-Teuvo Teravainen trio.

Kuznetsov has just seven goals and 18 points in 47 contests this season, but there’s potential here for him to mesh nicely with Guentzel, especially as the two settle into their new roles. If Kuznetsov is available in your fantasy league, he’s not a bad forward to take a chance on.

Colorado Avalanche – TUE @ STL, FRI VS CBJ, SUN VS PIT

The battle for the Central Division title could come down to the wire with Colorado, Dallas and Winnipeg all legitimate contenders for the top spot. The Avalanche can make things easier for themselves in that race by sweeping their relatively light competition next week. They’ll play in St. Louis on Tuesday before hosting the Blue Jackets on Friday and the Penguins on Sunday. None of those adversaries are in a playoff position, though St. Louis and Pittsburgh still have outside shots of squeaking into a wild-card slot.

There has been news recently when it comes to Gabriel Landeskog’s recovery from cartilage transplant surgery on his right knee. As Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports, the 31-year-old might return during the 2024 playoffs, but it’s far from guaranteed. Keep in mind that he’ll be just 10 months into his 12-16 month timetable come May and while the Avalanche aren’t ruling anything out, they also don’t want to rush him back and risk making things worse.

He will surely be on the back of fantasy managers’ minds going into playoff league drafts. When healthy, Landeskog is a top-tier forward and the Avalanche are legitimate Cup contenders, so under normal circumstances, he’d be highly sought after. You should heavily temper your expectations, though. At most, you could take him toward the end of the draft, and even then, only if you’re comfortable with the very real possibility that he ends up not contributing anything.

In the meantime, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen are continuing to dominate with 14 and 12 points, respectively, over the Avalanche’s last five games alone. MacKinnon is up to 42 goals and 115 points through 67 games as he pursues both the Art Ross and Hart Trophies.

Casey Mittelstadt has settled into a second-line role and has provided a goal and an assist in three games since being acquired by Buffalo. Obviously, he’s not playing with MacKinnon and Rantanen at even strength, but Mittelstadt doesn’t seem to be with the superstar duo on the power play either, instead going out with the second unit. That meaningfully hinders Mittelstadt’s value going forward.

Dallas Stars – WED VS ARI, FRI VS PIT, SUN @ ARI

As noted above, Dallas is in the battle for the Central Division title. Like the Avalanche, Dallas’ upcoming competition is fairly easy. Dallas will start with home games against the Coyotes and the Penguins on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, before traveling to Arizona for a contest Sunday.

Unlike Colorado, which made a big splash in the Mittelstadt for Bowen Byram trade, Dallas had a relatively quiet trade deadline, though the Stars were able to get some business done before it, acquiring defenseman Chris Tanev from Calgary on Feb. 28. Dallas is also looking to get some reinforcements back soon in Tyler Seguin (lower body) and Evgenii Dadonov (lower body), both of which might return next week.

When Seguin returns, Sam Steel will likely find himself moving out of a top-nine role, but what’s harder to gauge is where Dadonov fits in. After scoring 24 goals and 57 points in 47 AHL contests, Logan Stankoven made his NHL debut Feb. 24 and has gone on to record five goals and eight points in 10 outings. If the 21-year-old can continue to produce, then removing him from his third-line spot would seem counterproductive. However, there is no other obvious candidate outside of Steel (who would get bumped for Seguin’s return) to remove from the top nine, so when everyone is healthy, Dadonov might find himself on the fourth unit.

A fourth line of Dadonov, Steel and Radek Faksa is a level of luxury most teams could only dream of, but that trio likely won’t get enough playing time to have any fantasy value. It does put pressure on Stankoven, though -- if he has a prolonged cold stretch, he could find his minutes drop dramatically given the intense competition in Dallas.

Edmonton Oilers – TUE VS MTL, THU VS BUF, SAT @ TOR, SUN @ OTT (BTB)

Edmonton has had some incredible highs and lows this campaign, but when all is done, it now looks like the Oilers will finish with the second seed in the Pacific Division. However, that’s not guaranteed, so Edmonton needs to continue to get results in the upcoming week. Fortunately for the Oilers, their upcoming competition isn’t the strongest. They’ll host Montreal on Tuesday and Buffalo on Thursday before hitting the road to play in Toronto on Saturday and Ottawa on Sunday. The Maple Leafs are set to make the playoffs, but their other three adversaries have an eye toward the draft lottery.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are unsurprisingly continuing to headline the Oilers’ offense. McDavid has an incredible 25 points (four goals) in his past 13 games while Draisaitl has four tallies and 13 points in his last seven appearances.

Edmonton did try to diversify its offense with the addition of Adam Henrique, but the former Ducks forward has just one assist in four contests with the Oilers. He’s serving primarily on the third line and second power-play unit, so he’s not sharing the ice with Edmonton’s superstars. Unless that changes, Henrique’s fantasy value with the Oilers is likely to be somewhat limited.

This might be a good week for goaltender Calvin Pickard, though. The backup netminder has been rotating with starter Stuart Skinner recently and the results have been positive with Pickard saving 93 of 97 shots (.959 save percentage) over his last three starts. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Oilers continue to give Pickard a decent share of the workload in the short term. It’ll help keep Skinner fresh for the playoffs, and Pickard has earned the increased responsibilities with his 9-4-0 record, 2.27 GAA and .919 save percentage across 14 outings in 2023-24.

New Jersey Devils – TUE VS PIT, THU VS WPG, SAT VS OTT, SUN @ NYI (BTB)

The Devils’ playoff hopes aren’t completely gone, but they’re running out of time to close the gap. New Jersey will spend most of the upcoming week at home, playing against the Penguins on Tuesday, the Jets on Thursday and the Senators on Saturday. They’ll finish the week with a road contest against the Islanders.

Timo Meier has done the most lately to keep New Jersey’s postseason dream alive. Although his 19 goals and 36 points through 53 games this season represent a substantial decline from his 40 tallies and 66 points in 78 contests in 2022-23, he’s excelled recently. Meier’s contributed nine goals and 14 points over his past 10 appearances and has found the back of the net in six of his last seven outings.

Of course, the Devils’ main problem this campaign has been defensive, not its scoring. To that end, New Jersey did add goaltenders Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen at the deadline. Kahkonen made his Devils debut Monday, saving 23 of 25 shots against a tough opponent in the Rangers, though New Jersey didn’t provide him with enough support and lost 3-1 anyway. Allen then made his first Devils start Thursday, turning aside 35 of 37 shots en route to a 6-2 victory over Dallas.

That duo is likely to split the workload the rest of the way. It’s worth warning, though, that to say the Devils had poor goaltending would be to tell only half the tale. The defense in front of those netminders hasn’t done its job either. New Jersey has an xGA/60 of 3.22, which is tied for 23rd in the league, so don’t expect Allen or Kahkonen to put up great numbers in the long run.

Tampa Bay Lightning – TUE @ VGK, THU @ SJS, SAT @ LAK, SUN @ ANA (BTB)

Tampa Bay is unlikely to climb into the top three of the Atlantic Division race, but the Lightning are in a strong position to make the playoffs in a wild-card spot. They’ll continue that fight next week while visiting Vegas on Tuesday, San Jose on Thursday, Los Angeles on Saturday and Anaheim on Sunday. The Kings and the Golden Knights are tough opponents, but the Sharks and the Ducks sit in the league’s basement.

Nikita Kucherov has continued his season-long battle with Nathan MacKinnon for the Art Ross and Hart Trophies. Kucherov is behind the Avalanche star in that race, but just barely with 39 goals and 112 points to MacKinnon’s 42 markers and 115 points. Kucherov is riding a nine-game scoring streak in which he’s supplied three goals and 18 points, so he certainly hasn’t let up.

While MacKinnon has Mikko Rantanen as his complementary forward in the battle, Kucherov has Brayden Point. The 28-year-old Lightning forward was especially effective Thursday, providing a hat trick and six points, bringing Point up to 36 tallies and 73 points in 66 appearances in 2023-24.

Victor Hedman has shined recently too with two goals and six points over his last three games. He’s up to 12 goals and 66 points in 64 contests, which is good for third in the defensemen scoring race behind Cale Makar (73 points) and Quinn Hughes (76).

Of course, those are all headline players with Tampa Bay. One contributor who doesn’t get that level of attention is Anthony Duclair. The Lightning acquired him from San Jose on March 7 and the 28-year-old has gotten off to a good start, providing two goals and three points in two contests with the Lightning. That brings him up to 18 goals and 30 points in 58 appearances this year. Tampa Bay has deployed him at times with Steven Stamkos as well as the Point-Kucherov duo, so Duclair could be in line for a strong finish to the campaign.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE @ PHI, WED @ WAS, SAT VS EDM, SUN @ CAR

Toronto is pretty much set at this point. They do have an outside shot of competing for the first or second seeds in the Atlantic Division but barring a complete collapse or a stunning hot streak, Toronto will almost certainly finish the campaign in the division’s third position. Still, the Leafs will look to stay sharp next week. They’ll play in Philadelphia on Tuesday and Washington on Wednesday before hosting the Oilers on Saturday. Toronto will then conclude the week with a road game versus the Hurricanes on Sunday.

The big question mark regarding the Maple Leafs is the health of Mitchell Marner. He’s dealing with a high-ankle sprain, which is concerning, but Toronto considers it to be a mild variant. Still, he’s set to miss his third straight game Saturday. Given Toronto doesn’t have a lot left to fight for until the playoffs, there isn’t any compelling reason to have him play at anything under 100 percent, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Toronto exercises an abundance of caution when determining his availability going forward.

As long as Marner is unavailable, who plays alongside Auston Matthews remains somewhat in flux. Calle Jarnkrok and Tyler Bertuzzi were his linemates initially Thursday, but Jarnkrok suffered a hand injury and is considered week-to-week. That creates a potential opening for Pontus Holmberg to play on the first unit, which would give him some short-term fantasy value.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on how Nick Robertson is used. He’s been limited to eight goals and 19 points in 41 contests this season but has averaged just 11:22 of ice time and hasn’t even dressed for Toronto since Feb. 29. However, Robertson does have some offensive upside, and the Leafs’ recent injuries might create a new opportunity for him.

Winnipeg Jets – TUE @ NYR, THU @ NJD, SAT @ NYI, SUN @ WAS (BTB)

As noted above, the Jets are competing with Colorado and Dallas for the top seed in the Central Division. The Jets will continue that pursuit next week while playing on the road against the Rangers on Tuesday, New Jersey on Thursday, the Islanders on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.

Gabriel Vilardi has unfortunately been diagnosed with an enlarged spleen. There’s no timetable for his recovery, and we just have to hope that his recovery will go smoothly for him, and after this, he’ll be able to put it behind him.

When he’s healthy, there’s a fair chance Vilardi will play alongside Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele on the first line. As long as he’s unavailable, though, that spot will likely be occupied by Alex Iafallo, who has done well recently, providing two goals and three points in his past four games, which brings him up to 10 goals and 23 points in 65 contests in 2023-24. Iafallo might be worth taking a chance on while he’s playing on the first unit, but even in that role, you shouldn’t expect too much from him.

In the long run, the Jets will probably get more offensive production out of Tyler Toffoli, who is serving on the second line after being acquired from New Jersey on March 8. He has 26 goals and 44 points in 63 outings this season. Toffoli was held off the scoresheet in his first two games with Winnipeg, but it shouldn’t be too long before he starts to find his way with his new team, especially because he’s seeing time on the first power-play unit.

FANTASY: The Week Ahead – December 4th to December 10th – Senators Challenges Grow – Chicago, Colorado, Detroit, Los Angeles, Montreal among teams to target.

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 04 Dec 2023 17:17:11 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 21: Ottawa Senators Left Wing Brady Tkachuk (7) before a face-off during second period National Hockey League action between the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators on October 21, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

The opening for last week’s article was about Minnesota, so that’s twice now that I featured a team right before the coach was fired (the other instance of that was Edmonton). With apologies to D.J. Smith, I do want to discuss the Senators.

Ottawa is in a tricky position. The Senators went through the rebuilding process, having three top-five picks in three years from 2018-20 (Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson) followed by possessing the No. 10 selection in the 2021 NHL Draft (used on Tyler Boucher). Since then, they haven’t had a first-round pick, surrendering the 2022 selection to acquire Alex DeBrincat and their top pick in 2023 to get Jakob Chychrun. While they didn’t spend those picks on older players (and in the case of DeBrincat, they’re getting a first rounder back in the subsequent deal that shipped him to Detroit), it signaled that Ottawa is trying to move past the rebuilding phase.

It hasn’t worked out though. Ottawa was a middlingly 39-35-8 in 2022-23 and rather than take a step forward, the Senators are 9-10-0 this year. With Stutzle and Tkachuk having developed into star forwards while being backed by talented veterans Claude Giroux and Vladimir Tarasenko, Ottawa’s succeeded in troubling opposing goaltenders by scoring 3.32 goals per game, which puts the Senators in a four-way tie for ninth offensively.

Ottawa is also shaping up to be an amazing defensive team. In terms of expected goals against, the Senators rank second with 55.98. The Senators are an example of the reality of the NHL though: Even with a good offense and a strong defense, if your last line of defense is bad, then you’re still in trouble. Anton Forsberg has a 3.03 GAA and an .882 save percentage in eight contests this year. Joonas Korpisalo, who the Senators signed to a five-year, $20 million contract in the hopes that he’d stabilize their goaltending situation, has a 3.41 GAA and an .897 save percentage in 13 contests.

Things might be even worse than they look. Ottawa had 14 of its first 19 contests at home. That skewed schedule in the Senators’ favor will come back to haunt them from Dec. 14-Jan. 11 -- a stretch where they’ll play 11 of 14 contests on the road.

Chicago Blackhawks

The Blackhawks have four games ahead of them this week. They’ll face the Predators on Tuesday, the Ducks on Thursday, the Blues on Saturday and the Capitals on Sunday. The Capitals are the toughest of those teams with a 12-7-2 while the rest of the squads have been middling at best this year.

Chicago acquired Anthony Beauvillier from Vancouver last Tuesday, but he’s missed two of Chicago’s last three games due to visa issues. The exception was Saturday’s contest because it was in Winnipeg. In that game, Beauvillier played on the top line with Connor Bedard and Philipp Kurashev. If that’s his role going forward, which seems likely, then the trade could provide him with a substantial boost to his fantasy value. As a member of the Canucks, he was averaging just 13:39 of ice time, which is part of the reason why he was limited to two goals and eight points. As a member of Chicago’s first line, Beauvillier could conceivably get 30-40 points over the final 60 contests.

The Blackhawks could certainly use the help that Beauvillier should provided. Over the last three games, Chicago has managed just three goals. Connor Bedard factored on all of them (one goal, two assists), bringing him up to 11 goals and 20 points in 23 contests this campaign. He’s the man Chicago was hoping for, but arguably obtaining a superstar is the easy part. For that, you just need to tank and then win the lottery, which isn’t exactly a high-skill maneuver. Building around that superstar post-tank is the hard part, and it will likely be years before we’ll know if the Blackhawks can succeed in that phase.

It would help if Lukas Reichel, who is a high-end prospect in his own right, got going. The 22-year-old was a healthy scratch Sunday after scoring two goals and six points over his first 22 contests this year. While being scratched obviously isn’t great, the silver lining is that it gives him a chance to reset and view the action from a different perspective. Maybe it will help in the long run.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche have just three games this week, but they’re all home contests. They’ll start with the struggling Ducks on Tuesday (though it is worth noting Anaheim did manage to squeak away with a 4-3 shootout win over Colorado last Saturday) before facing Winnipeg on Thursday and Philadelphia on Saturday.

The Avalanche lost Cale Makar to a lower-body injury Saturday, and he missed Sunday’s game as a result. It remains to be seen how long he’ll be unavailable, but he’s the backbone of Colorado’s offense and defense, so losing him for any meaningful stretch of time would be a huge blow.

Sam Malinski drew into the lineup Sunday, logging 18:09 of ice time. He’s likely to remain in the lineup for as long as Makar is out. Malinski won’t come close to replacing the superstar’s offensive contributions, but Malinski does have three goals and nine points in 17 contests with AHL Colorado in 2023-24, so he might chip in a little. As far as the power play goes, Bowen Byram is likely to see time on the second unit while Devon Toews moves up to the top grouping, so both of their fantasy value will likely see a modest uptick in Makar’s absence.

Interestingly, rather than any of them, it was Josh Manson who factored in Sunday, scoring the Avalanche’s lone goal in a 4-1 loss to LA. Manson also registered an assist Saturday, so he’s at the start of what could be a hot streak, but it’s best to keep expectations low. After all, Manson has just three points in 21 contests this campaign, even after factoring in his recent production. He also has 32 PIM, 40 hits and 33 blocks, so he offers some additional utility if you did want to grab him in the hopes that his offensive run will last a little longer.

Detroit Red Wings

Detroit is set to play in Buffalo on Tuesday before heading home to face the Sharks on Thursday and the Senators on Saturday. All three of those opponents are in the bottom third of the league’s standings, so the Red Wings are in a strong position to go on a winning streak.

Patrick Kane signed a one-year, $2.75 million contract with the Red Wings on Nov. 28, but he’s likely to miss at least the first two contests this week as he looks to get back up to speed after undergoing hip surgery in June. When he does return, Kane will likely play alongside his old Blackhawks linemate, Alex DeBrincat, along with Dylan Larkin on Detroit’s top line. That should be a very effective unit, and while there’s an element of risk to Kane coming off surgery, he has the potential to record 40-50 points over the remainder of the campaign.

Getting Kane into the lineup might push Joe Veleno, who has averaged 15:00 of ice time this year, out of a top-six role. It also could cost David Perron his spot on the first power-play unit and push Robby Fabbri out of a power-play role entirely.

In terms of which Red Wings might benefit from having Kane on the roster, outside of Larkin and DeBrincat, we also might see Michael Rasmussen enjoy an indirect boost. Kane’s addition frees up Lucas Raymond to bolster the second line, which should help Rasmussen.

Detroit’s power play already enjoys a 23.5 conversion rate, which is eighth in the league, but if Kane is able to make the first unit even more successful, then that will also help defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere, whose production is closely tied to special teams.

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings are on the road this week, but their first two contests are against struggling adversaries in Columbus on Tuesday and Montreal on Thursday. The Kings will then travel to New York to face the Islanders on Saturday and the Rangers on Sunday.

Los Angeles is also one of the hottest teams in the league, having won six of its last seven contests. Trevor Moore has played a big role in the Kings’ recent success, scoring five goals and eight points in that seven-game span to climb to 12 markers and 20 points in 21 outings this year. Meanwhile, Adrian Kempe has collected four assists over his last four contests, giving him eight goals and 22 points in 21 contests in 2023-24.

In net, Cam Talbot continues to get most of the workload and deservedly so. He has a 1.96 GAA and a .930 save percentage through 16 games. Backup Pheonix Copley has a far uglier 3.04 GAA and .868 save percentage in six outings, but he’s won his last two starts while saving 48 of 49 shots (.980 save percentage) over that span. Copley will likely have an opportunity to extend that run against either the Islanders or the Rangers this weekend.

Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens will host the Kraken on Monday and the Kings on Thursday. Then the Canadiens will travel to Buffalo on Saturday before returning to Montreal to host the Predators on Sunday. It’s a busy week, and the Kings are a tough opponent, but Nashville, Buffalo and Seattle all have sub-.500 records.

Goaltender Jake Allen has a 3.74 GAA and an .898 save percentage in 10 contests this season, and he’s done particularly bad lately, posting a 4.63 GAA and an .871 save percentage over his last six outings. Cayden Primeau hasn’t done any better with a 4.24 GAA and an .875 save percentage over his last three contests, so there’s an opening here for Sam Montembeault to run away with the starting gig.

Montembeault has a 5-3-1 record, 2.73 GAA and .910 save percentage in 10 contests this campaign and has won his last two starts while saving 56 of 61 shots (.918 save percentage) over that span. The Canadiens also made a three-year, $9.45 million commitment to the 27-year-old goaltender Friday, which further increases the chances of him claiming that top spot.

In terms of hot players offensively, blueliner Gustav Lindstrom has scored two goals over his last three contests. He’s not someone you should expect a lot of productivity from -- over 139 career games, he has just 29 points -- but he’s clicking at the moment. Joel Armia also has two goals over his last three outings and importantly has averaged 15:35 of ice time over that stretch, up from 12:38 over his previous six games with Montreal.

Seattle Kraken

Seattle lost four straight contests to drop to 8-11-6 this campaign. The pressure is on the Kraken to turn things around this week, especially with a slate of home games on the horizon. First, they’ll play in Montreal on Monday, but then the Kraken will host the Devils on Thursday, the Lightning on Saturday and the Wild on Sunday.

The Kraken have scored just seven goals over their last four games, but Tye Kartye has been an outlier over that stretch with two goals and three points. The 22-year-old rookie still has just four goals and eight points through 24 outings this campaign, but he might be getting more comfortable as the year progresses. He certainly showed offensive upside in the 2022-23 campaign, supplying 28 goals and 57 points in 72 AHL outings. You can try taking a chance on him while he’s hot in the hope that his recent success might lead to something more. If nothing else, he’s a decent source of PIM and hits, having 25 and 43, respectively, this year.

Jared McCann has also provided two goals and three points over that four-game stretch, bringing him up to 11 markers and 16 points in 25 outings this year. However, that’s still well behind his pace from 2022-23 when he finished with 40 goals and 70 points. Rather than replicate his production from last year, McCann is more likely to finish with around 50-55 points, falling more in line with his 2021-22 showing.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay was expecting the return of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to bolster the team, but instead, the Lightning have lost four straight games. To be fair, Tampa Bay has provided just five goals during its losing streak, so Vasilevskiy hasn’t gotten sufficient support, but the netminder also has a 3.87 GAA and an .859 save percentage through four starts. Perhaps it’s hard for him to find his rhythm after missing the start of the campaign with a back injury.

The Lightning will attempt to right the ship this week with home games against the Stars on Monday and the Penguins on Wednesday, followed by a road trip taking them to Nashville on Thursday and Seattle on Saturday.

I do expect Vasilevskiy to settle in as the campaign goes on, so this might be a good time to explore the possibility of acquiring him at a discounted price. After missing so much time and struggling so badly out of the gate, some fantasy managers might be frustrated enough to move him.

In terms of hot players, Nikita Kucherov is basically all the Lightning have at the moment. He’s managed to assist on all five of the Lightning’s markers over the last four games, propelling him to 15 goals and 40 points through 24 contests this year.

Victor Hedman has also done well with a goal and three points over his last four outings. If you’re lucky enough to have the blueliner on your fantasy team, you’ve been treated to consistent production – he hasn’t had a scoring drought longer than two outings this year.

Beyond those two, though, no Tampa Bay player has recorded more than a point over the last four games. If there’s a silver lining among that group, it’s Tanner Jeannot, who has at least been productive in other ways. In addition to scoring a power-play goal over that four-contest stretch, he’s also recorded 15 PIM and 18 hits.

Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights hit a rough patch from Nov. 5-28 in which they posted a 3-5-3 record, but that seems to be behind them after earning back-to-back 4-1 victories against Vancouver and Washington, respectively. They’ll attempt to build on that with their home-and-away series against St. Louis on Monday and Wednesday. Following those contests, the Golden Knights will play in Dallas on Saturday and host the Sharks on Sunday.

We just covered Seattle and Tampa Bay, which had somewhat slim pickings when it came to hot players, but that’s not the case with Vegas. Four Golden Knights forwards have recorded at least three points over the last three contests: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Michael Amadio and Ivan Barbashev.

Of them, Amadio and Barbashev might be obtainable in fantasy leagues if you’re looking for someone to provide you with a short-term boost. Barbashev would be a particularly interesting option since he spent his first 410 career NHL games with St. Louis before being dealt to Vegas in February, so he might play with a little extra during the upcoming two contests.

It’s also worth noting that Adin Hill sustained a lower-body injury Thursday and missed Saturday’s contest as a result. It’s not clear how long he’ll be out for, but if he doesn’t return by the weekend, then Jiri Patera might get a start, perhaps versus San Jose. Patera isn’t having a great campaign with a 3.17 GAA and a .900 save percentage in 14 appearances with AHL Henderson, but he did post a 2.50 GAA and a .929 save percentage in two outings with Vegas last season, and the Sharks are a favorable opponent, so if it looks like he’ll get the start for that game then you should consider Patera as a situational pickup.

FANTASY: THE WEEK AHEAD – November 20th – 26th – Carolina and Colorado with favourable weeks – Goaltending issues rampant

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 20 Nov 2023 13:41:29 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - JANUARY 27: Carolina Hurricanes Center Jesperi Kotkaniemi (82) skates during the second period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Carolina Hurricanes on January 27, 2022 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

The 2022-23 campaign was amazing for offensive defensemen, but this year might be even better. That’s not a statement that should be made lightly. Erik Karlsson had 101 points last year, the most for a blueliner since Brian Leetch in 1991-92, and seven other defensemen exceeded the 70-point milestone. How could 2023-24 end up being even better?

It starts with Quinn Hughes, who is tied for the overall scoring lead with seven goals and 28 points through 18 contests, but it doesn’t end with him. Cale Makar is also in the top 10 with 24 points in 16 outings and an additional four defensemen (Victor Hedman, Evan Bouchard, Filip Hronek and Karlsson) are averaging at least a point per game while logging 16 or more contests. A total of 12 blueliners have PPGs of at least 0.88 (72-point pace over 82 contests) while making at least 16 appearances.

So, while it’s still early, we are on track to set an even higher bar than last year in terms of offensive defenseman.

Overall scoring is up too, though just slightly. Through Saturday’s action, the league was averaging 3.20 goals per team per game. If sustained, that would make this the highest-scoring season since 1993-94, though it’d represent just a small upgrade from 2022-23 (3.18). Still, scoring has been on an overall upward slope for years and has risen significantly compared to 2015-16 (2.71). It’s a fun time to be a hockey fan.

Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina has a trio of home games ahead of them, hosting Edmonton on Wednesday, Tampa Bay on Friday and Columbus on Sunday. The Blue Jackets are one of the worst teams in the league, the Lightning have been mediocre without Andrei Vasilevskiy (back) and Edmonton did go on a three-game winning streak, but it’s over now and even after that, the Oilers have a lowly 5-10-1 record. In other words, the Hurricanes have a real chance to win all three games.

Goaltending Frederik Andersen remains out indefinitely with a blood clotting issue. Last year, that would have led to Antti Raanta becoming the clear No. 1 goaltender, but Raanta has struggled in 2023-24 with a 4-2-0 record, 3.02 GAA and .877 save percentage in seven contests. Even with Andersen gone, Raanta has warmed the bench for Carolina’s last two games due to his poor play. Instead, Pyotr Kochetkov started in those games, but with a 1-4-0 record, 3.10 GAA and .876 save percentage in five outings, he might not be the solution either.

Keep an eye on Jaroslav Halak. He’s been with the team on a tryout basis, and with the Hurricanes’ goaltending being this shaky, he might end up being signed and get some starts. Alternatively, the No. 1 job is wide open, so either Kochetkov or Raanta could snatch it with a single hot streak.

Up front, Sebastian Aho is riding high with three goals and seven points over his last five games. With the weak goaltending the Hurricanes are set to face this week, Aho and Carolina’s forwards in general could be in for a fun time. That might help Jesperi Kotkaniemi rebound. He has a solid six goals and 13 points in 17 contests but has been held off the scoresheet over the last three contests -- his longest drought so far this campaign.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche will play in Nashville on Monday, host the Canucks on Wednesday, play in Minnesota on Friday, and wrap up with week with a home contest versus Calgary. Vancouver should be a challenge, but the rest of that competition has PTS% below .500.

Colorado endured a rough patch from Oct. 26-Nov. 11, winning just two of seven games, but they’ve bounced back in a huge way, not just winning their last three contests but outscoring the competition a stunning 19-6 over that span.

Cale Makar has been the biggest benefactor of the Avalanche’s offense catching fire, collecting a goal and eight points over the last three contests. Valeri Nichushkin is on fire too, supplying four markers and five points during the same stretch.

Alexandar Georgiev has held his own too, but his save percentage over the last three contests is a merely okay .906. It’s fair to say he’s stabilized after posting a 4.73 GAA and an .842 save percentage over seven outings from Oct. 21-Nov. 11, but there is still some level of concern with him. Still, Pavel Francouz (groin) is not going to play this campaign and Ivan Prosvetov lacks experience, so Georgiev has one of the safest jobs in the league, and the Avalanche offense means he’ll rack up plenty of wins even if he ends up having a subpar campaign.

Nashville Predators

The Predators have a busy week ahead of them. They have home games versus Colorado and Calgary on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. After that, they’ll play in St. Louis on Friday before returning to Nashville to host the Jets on Sunday. The Avalanche and Jets are tough opponents, but the Blues are middling, and Calgary is near the bottom of the pack.

Thomas Novak was off to a great start, providing six goals and 12 points in 14 contests, but he hasn’t played since Nov. 11 because of an upper-body injury and isn’t expected to return until mid-December. Meanwhile, Cody Glass returned Nov. 11 from a lower-body injury. He has no points in seven contests this campaign, but he’s still worth regarding as a short-term pickup. The 24-year-old is averaging 3:46 of power-play ice time, including 5:16 over Nashville’s last two outings.

Cole Smith is another forward who might be good to pick up for a brief period. He’s typically not much of a significant offensive threat, but he did score two goals Saturday, so that could be the start of a hot streak. Even if it’s not, Smith should at least help you in terms of PIM and hits -- he has 24 and 42, respectively, over 16 contests.

New Jersey Devils

The Devils are set to play on the road against the Red Wings on Wednesday before hosting the Blue Jackets on Friday and Sabres on Saturday. Buffalo is playing without Tage Thompson, Detroit has dropped four of its last five and Columbus is Columbus, so New Jersey appears to be in a favorable position.

New Jersey also got Jack Hughes back Saturday, and he picked up right where he left off, providing a goal and an assist versus the Rangers to bring him up to six goals and 22 points through 11 outings this year. However, the Devils are still missing Nico Hischier (upper body) and Timo Meier (lower body), plus Tomas Nosek exited Saturday’s contest with a lower-body injury, so New Jersey’s forward core has some holes.

Michael McLeod has been leaned on heavily, averaging 17:27 of ice time over his last six contests in contrast to 12:09 over his first five. Even with that extra playing time, though, he’s just a mildly okay option in fantasy circles for now, and he doesn’t do enough offensively to make him worth hanging onto long term -- once Hischier returns, McLeod should be dropped in everything but the deepest of leagues.

If you’re looking for someone to grab from New Jersey, Ondrej Palat would be a better option. He’s unlikely to get more than 40 points this season, but he’s factored on the scoresheet for three straight games and four of his last five outings.

New York Islanders

The Islanders are slated to host the Flyers on Wednesday, play in Ottawa on Friday and then return home to face Philadelphia for a rematch Saturday. The Flyers and Senators are decent, but not amazing teams this year, so these should be competitive contests.

That said, the Islanders have also been middling this campaign, and their lackluster 6-6-5 record is largely a symptom of their poor offense -- they're tied for 29th with 2.53 goals per game. However, their offense has shown life recently with the Islanders scoring 11 goals (not including the shootout) over their last three outings.

Mathew Barzal is finally heating up, providing a goal and five points in that three-game stretch, bringing him up to four markers and 15 points through 17 contests overall. Brock Nelson has been a major contributor doing the Islanders’ last three outings too with two goals and four points. He’s unlikely to repeat his career high of 75 points from 2022-23, but a 60-point campaign it’s still reasonable for fantasy managers to hope he finishes with around 60 points. Currently, he has eight goals and 12 points in 17 appearances this year.

Even with the offense starting to do better though, New York is still in a lot of trouble. The Islanders rely on goaltender Ilya Sorokin to be the backbone of the team, and traditionally he’s fulfilled that role admirably. However, through 11 appearances this year, he has a 4-3-4 record, 3.32 GAA and .906 save percentage. He’s also allowed at least three goals in each of his last six outings to further frustrate fantasy managers. He’s an interesting buy-low candidate though. While the team in front of him isn’t amazing, Sorokin is still likely to rebound.

Seattle Kraken (Mon vs. Cal, Wed vs. SJS, Fri vs. Van)

Seattle has won its last two games and will attempt to build off that with home games against Calgary, San Jose and Vancouver on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, respectively. The Canucks should be a tough matchup, but the Flames and Sharks are vulnerable teams.

Like the Islanders, Seattle’s offense has underwhelmed this year -- it ranks 28th with 2.63 goals per game -- and has similarly shown life recently with 10 non-shootout goals over the last three contests. In the Kraken’s case, it’s been Jordan Eberle leading the charge. He had a rough start to the campaign, supplying just a goal and three points over his first 12 games, but that seems to be behind him after scoring a goal and six points over his past four outings. Despite his initial slump, he’s still a vital part of the Kraken, averaging 17:14 of ice time, including 2:29 with the man advantage, and is likely to finish the campaign with 50-60 points.

Matthew Beniers seems to have turned a corner too. He had just three assists in 11 contests to start the campaign, but since then he went on a three-game scoring streak from Nov. 4-9 (one goal, four points) and has collected two goals and three points over his last two contests. The 21-year-old’s pace of three goals and 10 points through 19 contests is still down compared to his 2022-23 Calder Trophy-winning 57-point campaign, but there’s potential here.

St. Louis Blues

The Blues will play in Arizona on Wednesday, return home to play the Predators on Friday and finally travel to Chicago to face the Blackhawks on Sunday. The Coyotes have done alright with an 8-7-2 start to the campaign, but Nashville and Chicago have a combined 11-21-0 record, so getting at least four of six points this week should be the goal for St. Louis.

That said, the Blues have been awfully inconsistent. Five of their nine wins have been by three or more goals, but at the same time, St. Louis has also lost by three or more goals six times. To put that into context, they’re the only team with at least five in each of those categories. You consequently never really know what you’re going to get with the Blues.

If you’re looking for a St. Louis player to consider taking for the week though, Brandon Saad is likely available. After all, he has just three goals and five points through 16 contests this season, so he hasn’t given fantasy managers a lot to be excited about. That said, he still has a top-six role and gets deployed on the second power-play unit, so with the schedule being favorable, he might do well in the short term.

If you already have Jordan Binnington, this should be a good week for him. Joel Hofer gave him a breather Sunday, so Binnington is likely to start in all three of the Blues’ upcoming contests. The starting goaltender is off to a strong start this season with a 2.47 GAA and a .922 save percentage in 12 games. The competition also ranges from middling to poor offensively, with the Coyotes being the best of them with 3.24 goals per game, which puts them in a tie for 16th in the league.

Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks get to play against the 3-13-1 Sharks twice this week, first at home Monday and then in San Jose on Saturday. Between then, the Canucks will also play in Colorado on Wednesday and Seattle on Friday.

Vancouver has dropped its last two contests, but it’s still an impressive 12-5-1. Incredibly, three of the Canucks players already have 28 points (J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes). Brock Boeser isn’t too far behind with seven goals and 21 points while defenseman Filip Hronek has a goal and 18 points through 18 contests. That’s right: Vancouver has two defensemen averaging at least a point per game.

The Canucks’ current offensive output isn’t likely to be sustained, but it might last at least another week given Seattle ranks 24th defensively, allowing 3.47 goals per game, and San Jose is in the basement with an average of 4.24 goals allowed.

Beyond the usual suspects, that might be good news for Nils Hoglander. He’s averaging just 10:32 of ice time this season, so not a lot should be expected of him long term, but he’s going into the week on a bit of a roll after scoring a goal in back-to-back games. Defenseman Tyler Myers is hot too with four helpers over his last four contests, bringing him up to two goals and nine points in 18 appearances this year.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Early Standouts – Significant early injuries – Who benefits from opportunity

Scott Cullen — Fri, 20 Oct 2023 22:14:31 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 14: Ottawa Senators Right Wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) after a whistle during second period National Hockey League action between the Philadelphia Flyers and Ottawa Senators on October 14, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, a look at a new Panthers winger plus lots of early injuries including to significant players like Sebastian Aho, Gabriel Vilardi, Kirby Dach, Viktor Arvidsson, Matthew Boldy, Pavel Buchnevich, and more. That means new opportunities for others looking for a bigger role.

#1 In the past couple of seasons, Evan Rodrigues has proven to be a premier shot generator who could thrive in a supporting offensive role. In those two seasons – one with Pittsburgh and one with Colorado – he put up 82 points (35 G, 47 A) in 151 games while generating 2.85 shots on goal per game. That was something of a late breakthrough for the now 30-year-old forward who is looking at an even better opportunity this season in Florida. Rodrigues has opened the season skating on Aleksander Barkov’s wing and is averaging 18:54 time on ice per game, which would be a career high, on the way to producing five points (2 G, 3 A) and 17 shots on goal in his first four games. It is obviously a very small sample, but Rodrigues has the underlying numbers to make his production more sustainable. For a player that has never had 20 goals and 50 points in an NHL season, Rodrigues should be looking to exceed those numbers this season.

#2 Entering the season, there did not seem to be a lot of buzz surrounding new Ottawa Senators right winger Vladimir Tarasenko, a six-time 30-goal scorer who signed with the club as a free agent. The veteran winger has opened his Sens tenure with six points (2 G, 4 A) in four games, but that doesn’t alleviate the concerns about him entirely, either. He is averaging just 13:38 of ice time per game, which would be his lowest since his rookie season in 2012-2013, and he only has six shots on goal through four games. Although Tarasenko has been skating with rookie Ridly Greig at center, with Josh Norris returning to the Senators lineup, that could eventually help Tarasenko get more offensive opportunities, but the ice time and shot rate bear watching.

#3 It is not easy for Ottawa Senators defenceman Jake Sanderson to get power play time on a team with Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun already, which is not to say that it never happens, only that he ranks second among Sens defencemen in five-on-four ice time behind Chabot. Even so, Sanderson is off to a stellar start, producing five points (2 G, 3 A) in four games. He only has five shots on goal, which is not encouraging, but Sanderson is going to get quality ice time, even if he is not always going to be quarterbacking Ottawa’s top power play unit.

#4 A lot was made of the decline in performance last season from Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Victor Hedman, but it might be premature to start the 32-year-old blueliner into a heavy decline phase of his career. Hedman has contributed five points (1 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal through five games, which is a promising start, but the Lightning have been getting outshot with Hedman on the ice (46.2 CF%), too, and that hasn’t happened for more than a decade.

#5 Carolina Hurricanes centre Sebastian Aho has been out for a couple of games and while his injury is thought to be a day-to-day thing, his absence is still felt. Through a couple of games, the Hurricanes were getting 79.1% of expected goals with Aho on the ice during five-on-five play, In Aho’s absence, Teuvo Teravainen has moved into the first line centre role and Teravainen has scored four goals in five games to start the season. Additionally, the Hurricanes have better depth down the middle as Jesperi Kotkaniemi continues to develop. The 23-year-old has started his sixth NHL season with five points (2 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in five games, averaging a career-high 15:51 of ice time per game.

#6 In a move that didn’t make a huge offseason splash, the Detroit Red Wings brought in puck-moving defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere. While he does not have a huge role, averaging 18:53 of ice time per game, Gostisbehere is getting first unit power play time alongside Moritz Seider and Gostisbehere already has four points (1 G, 3 A) in four games with the Red Wings controlling play (53.2 CF%) in Gostisbehere’s five-on-five minutes.

#7 Toronto Maple Leafs centre Auston Matthews is the early leader in all-situations expected goals (3.76), ahead of Matthew Tkachuk (3.23), Connor Bedard (3.10), Artturi Lehkonen (2.85), Filip Forsberg (2.74), and Jack Eichel (2.64). Bedard is obviously playing a lot for Chicago and creating chances, but they have yet to materialize into goals. For a player who enters the league with a legendary release, Bedard’s ability to generate high-quality shots bodes well for his future production. It’s also encouraging to see Eichel playing at such a high level. He had an outstanding playoff, but it appears in the early going that Eichel is going to continue at an elite level. He leads the NHL with 28 shots on goal in five games, though Nathan MacKinnon (27) and Auston Matthews (26) are close behind while playing just four games.

#8 Winnipeg Jets RW Gabriel Vilardi is out for four-to-six weeks with a sprained MCL, which is a tough situation for a player who was averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game through two games. Vilardi was also rocking a 73.3 CF%, but now the Jets will need to find someone to fill those minutes. It looks like Mason Appleton will get first crack alongside Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele and that is a big opportunity for a 27-year-old who scored a career-high 25 points (12 G, 13 A) in 56 games in 2020-2021.

#9 Montreal lost centre Kirby Dach to a torn ACL, ending the 22-year-old’s season prematurely. He had two assists and 70.4 CF% in two games before getting hurt. Alex Newhook will slide into the middle of the ice to fill the hole created by Dach’s absence, while Tanner Pearson will move up the depth chart to take Newhook’s spot on left wing. Pearson, who played just 14 games last season, has two goals in three games to start his Habs career.

#10 On the Florida Panthers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final last season, Sam Bennett was an impact player at centre, between Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk. Bennett has yet to play this season because of a lower-body injury, so Eetu Luostarinen is getting that opportunity. Unfortunately, he has yet to record a point and has just one shot on goal in four games. That is not making the most of the situation.

#11 Los Angeles Kings winger Viktor Arvidsson has been an excellent and sometimes underrated contributor, but he is out long term after undergoing back surgery, which means new opportunities on the right side in Los Angeles. Arthur Kaliyev is skating in Arvidsson’s typical spot, alongside Phillip Danault and Trevor Moore, while rookie Alexis Laferriere has landed a prime spot on the wing with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Kevin Fiala. Kaliyev may have the higher upside as a scorer, as he has shown a strong ability to generate shots, even in limited ice time. Arvidsson’s injury should help ensure that Kaliyev sees a good jump in ice time this season, opening the door for a breakout season.

#12 Injuries have hit the Minnesota Wild hard early in the season. Rising star winger Matthew Boldy and defencemen Jared Spurgeon and Alex Goligoski are all out of action for Minnesota and they are not easily replaced. Taking Boldy’s spot is Samuel Walker, a 24-year-old who has two points (1 G, 1 A) in 10 career NHL games and did not have any points in two AHL games this season, but he did produce 48 points (27 G, 21 A) in 56 AHL games last season, so this is a real chance to Walker to show his stuff at the NHL level. Spurgeon’s absence also gives Calen Addison the role of first unit power play quarterback, which is an area in which the young defenceman has excelled, with 18 of his 29 points last season coming with the man advantage.

#13 While fourth lines are not going to bring big fantasy appeal, it’s worth noting what is happening in Detroit, where Christian Fischer (83.7 xGF%) and Klim Kostin (80.2 xGF%) are dominating play to a ridiculous degree. Austin Czarnik has played only two games, but Detroit has controlled 86.3% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Czarnik on the ice.

#14 Staying in Detroit, veteran winger Robby Fabbri made it through one game before suffering another injury and Fabbri’s injury presents an opportunity for Michael Rasmussen to climb up the depth chart. Rasmussen had a career-high 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 56 games last season, but his average ice time has increased by more than a minute per game in the early going this season and he has a couple of points (1 G, 1 A) in four games.

#15 Although he can get overshadowed by the top two centres on the Devils roster, Erik Haula’s upper body injury is notable for a team that thrives on its depth. With Haula out, Michael McLeod moves from the fourth line centre to third line centre and while McLeod has established that he is a solid fourth liner, his offensive production has kept him in that role. He has just 10 goals in 157 games over the past two seasons, so if McLeod is ever going to shake his fourth-line label, he will need to take advantage when he gets the chance to play in the top nine.

#16 Expectations were already very low for the San Jose Sharks coming into the season, but it has been made even more difficult with veteran centres Mikael Granlund and Logan Couture out of the lineup. Rookie Thomas Bordeleau and veteran Luke Kunin are handling the middle six centre roles for the Sharks. Bordeleau has managed one goal and five shots on goal through four games while he has been caved in when it comes to puck possession (31.1 CF%). Kunin has yet to record a point and is not much better at driving play (33.0 CF%). This should come as little surprise, but it reveals how much of an uphill fight it is for San Jose right now.

#17 St. Louis Blues winger Pavel Buchnevich suffered an upper-body injury when crushed into the boards by Seattle Kraken defenceman Jamie Oleksiak, and while Buchnevich has been out, the opportunity has fallen to 21-year-old Jake Neighbours, who has managed zero points and two shots on goal in three games this season. A chance to play in St. Louis’ top six is not bad, but it is up to Neighbours to show that he deserves to stay in a significant role over the long term.

#18 It is still super early, but there are some forwards raising red flags with their early struggles. Timo Meier was benched for the third period against Florida and has zero points and four shots on goal in three games. Meier has always been able to generate shots, so that is a notable concern with his game in New Jersey, but he really should be able to figure it out.

#19 When he returned to action last season following hip resurfacing surgery, Washington Capitals centre Nicklas Backstrom struggled, to a degree that he never really had in the NHL before. With a fresh start this season, 35-year-old Backstrom is still struggling to find his way. He has zero points in three games and is averaging 15:45 of ice time per game, which would be the lowest rate of his career. Backstrom is still getting top unit power play time but is skating between Sonny Milano and Tom Wilson at even strength, so he is not nearly the dangerous scoring threat that he was during his prime.

#20 After getting bought out by the Winnipeg Jets, 37-year-old right winger Blake Wheeler landed with the New York Rangers. Through four games with the Blueshirts, not only does Wheeler not have any points, but he is playing just 12:26 per game, which would be the lowest time on ice of his career. He is skating on a line with centre Vincent Trocheck and rookie left winger Will Cuylle. While Wheeler’s all-around game has declined in recent seasons, he still produced 55 points (16 G, 39 A) last season and early returns suggest that he will not be continuing at that level this season.