[04-May-2026 15:31:54 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Class 'WP_Widget' not found in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_news_feed_widget.php:3
Stack trace:
#0 {main}
thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_news_feed_widget.php on line 3
[04-May-2026 15:31:55 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Class 'WP_Widget' not found in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_sidebar_menu_widget.php:3
Stack trace:
#0 {main}
thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_sidebar_menu_widget.php on line 3
[04-May-2026 15:31:45 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_editorials.php:22
Stack trace:
#0 {main}
thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_editorials.php on line 22
[04-May-2026 15:31:46 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_tabs.php:50
Stack trace:
#0 {main}
thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_tabs.php on line 50
[04-May-2026 15:31:47 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_heading.php:15
Stack trace:
#0 {main}
thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_heading.php on line 15

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
This week, Sean Monahan moves to Winnipeg, Troy Terry is streaking, Jonathan Quick is earning more playing time, Nazem Kadri is leading the way for Calgary, Dylan Cozens is starting to heat up in Buffalo, and much, much more!
#1 The Winnipeg Jets dipped into the trade market to acquire centre Sean Monahan from the Montreal Canadiens. Monahan, healthy after years of having hip problems, has been enjoying a renaissance. He had put up 11 points (2 G, 9 A) in his last seven games with Montreal and while he has not recorded a point in his first two games with the Jets, Monahan does have six shots on goal and seems like he should be a reasonable option as the No. 2 centre in Winnipeg.
#2 With Monahan departing, Montreal is in dire straits down the middle of the ice behind captain Nick Suzuki. With Christian Dvorak and Kirby Dach out for the season and Alex Newhook still recovering from injury, Montreal has Jake Evans slotted into the second line centre spot, with AHL call-ups Brandon Gignac and Lucas Condotta filling out the bottom half of the centre depth chart. Evans has 14 points (2 G, 12 A) in 50 games, which is not exactly prime offensive production from a player who is already averaging a career high 15:45 of ice time per game.
#3 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry started slowly this season, scoring 13 points in his first 24 games, and that included a four-point game against Arizona on November 1. He has since picked up the pace and goes into Friday’s action riding a six-game point streak during which he has produced 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 19 shots on goal. That’s a small sample, but the shot rate is encouraging. Terry averaged a career high 2.69 shots on goal per game last season and is sitting on 2.51 shots per game this season, so lifting his average up over three per game counts as progress and makes his production more sustainable.
#4 A bizarre goaltending season continues to wreak havoc for fantasy hockey managers. With Igor Shesterkin slumping, to the tune of a .863 save percentage in 10 games since the calendar flipped to 2024, the Rangers are now giving more starts to Jonathan Quick. For all of his career accolades, Quick is now 38 years old and had worse than average results in four of the previous five seasons. This season, he has a .919 save percentage and a 12-4-2 record in 19 appearances. With Shesterkin slumping, Quick is shockingly taking on a bigger role for the Blueshirts.
#5 While the season appears to be headed south for the Calgary Flames as a team, centre Nazem Kadri has picked up his production after a relatively slow start to the campaign. In his past 20 games, Kadri has 21 points (8 G, 13 A) and 67 shots on goal and with Elias Lindholm traded, Kadri becomes even more important as Calgary’s No. 1 centre.
#6 Following a breakthrough 2022-2023 season, Buffalo Sabres centre Dylan Cozens has not been as productive this season. However, with nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 23 shots on goal in his past eight games, Cozens is starting to look more like the rising star that he was a year ago. He is getting first unit power play time right now but has just five power play points this season, so that could be an area to increase potential point production.
#7 The goals are not coming as easily for Washington this season, but centre Dylan Strome remains a viable fantasy hockey option, at least for consideration in deeper leagues. Since December 30, he has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 34 shots on goal in 16 games. With Evgeny Kuznetsov in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, Strome is the most established scoring centre on the Capitals roster by a healthy margin and is naturally centering the top line between Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson.
#8 In his past 20 games, Philadelphia Flyers winger Joel Farabee has put up 21 points (6 G, 15 A) while registering 53 shots on goal. Skating on a line with Morgan Frost and Travis Konecny, in addition getting first unit power play time, is working for Farabee, who ranks 25th in the league with 35 even strength points. Farabee’s even strength production has been outstanding, but if he can become a factor on the power play, he could push towards a point per game scoring pace.
#9 Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Mikhail Sergachev suffered a broken leg in Wednesday’s loss at the New York Rangers, in his first game back after missing 17. Sergachev’s absence does open the door for Darren Raddysh to remain in a more significant role on the Lightning blueline. Raddysh has contributed eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 19 shots on goal in his past 12 games. He has played nearly 21 minutes per game over his past 20 games, the 27-year-old making himself a fixture on the Lightning blueline in his first full NHL season.
#10 While he could stand to put more pucks on net, Detroit Red Wings winger Lucas Raymond has contributed 15 points (3 G, 12 A) in his past 15 games, despite managing a modest 18 shots on goal. He is reaping the rewards of a high on-ice shooting percentage, 11.1 percent, and that is likely unsustainable, though riding with Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin on Detroit’s top line should help to keep Raymond’s percentages at least above average.
#11 With Jack Eichel still out of the lineup for the Vegas Golden Knights, they can be thankful that other centres have stepped up to fill the void. Chandler Stephenson has contributed 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 22 shots on goal in the past 10 games and Nicolas Roy has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in his past nine games. Since January 1, Roy is averaging 4.05 points per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, which is the best rate in the entire league for players that have played at least 100 five-on-five minutes. In Stephenson’s case, this re-emergence has come following a stretch during which he managed just two points (1 G, 1 A) in 12 games.
#12 Seattle Kraken right winger Jordan Eberle has had trouble getting on track this season but is making progress lately. In his past seven games, Eberle has put up nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 14 shots on goal. He is skating on a line with Tomas Tatar and Jared McCann and they have had some success. McCann has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 26 shots on goal in his past 10 games, while Tatar has four points (2 G, 2 A) in his past five games.
#13 In his second full season with the Buffalo Sabres, winger JJ Peterka has been the leading goal scorer for the team, which is a credit to Peterka, who has 18 goals after scoring seven points (5 G, 2 A) with 21 shots on goal in his past six games, but it’s also something of an indictment of more established scorers like Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch, who have not produced to the levels that they have in previous seasons. Peterka is skating on a line with Dylan Cozens and rookie winger Zach Benson, a trio full of potential and a group that should get plenty of ice time for the rest of the season.
#14 There is not a lot to bring excitement to the San Jose Sharks’ season and it is rare to bring forth Sharks players for potential fantasy value. With that disclaimer out of the way, managers in deep leagues should keep tabs on William Eklund, the 21-year-old who was the seventh pick in the 2021 Draft. Eklund has six points (1 G, 5 A) in his past five games and is getting some reps at centre. He is also getting significant ice time, including first unit power play time, playing more than 20 minutes in four of his past seven contests.
#15 It has been a challenging season in Columbus, too. Johnny Gaudreau leads the Blue Jackets with just 32 points in 50 games. Patrik Laine is in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, and star rookie Adam Fantilli is out for two months with a lacerated calf. One bright spot has been the development of Yegor Chinakhov, the 23-year-old winger who was a surprise first-round pick in 2020. Chinakhov has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal in his past seven games and is up to 14 goals on the season. Like Eklund, Chinakhov is more of a concern for those in deep or dynasty leagues.
#16 There are few players that are worthy of fantasy consideration that play as little as Detroit Red Wings right winger Daniel Sprong. He was one of the most efficient players in the league with Seattle last season, scoring 46 points (21 G, 25 A) in 66 games while playing just 11:25 per game. When he signed with Detroit, the expectation was that Sprong would see a bump in ice time but, for the most part that hasn’t materialized. Even so, he has put up 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 38 shots on goal in his past 13 games, while playing just 11:46 per game, since the calendar flipped to 2024.
#17 A defenceman who scored a career-high 20 points as a rookie in 2017-2018, Jan Rutta is suddenly contributing offensively for the San Jose Sharks. Not only does Rutta have six points (3 G, 3 A) in the past six games, but he is averaging 22:45 of ice time per game over that stretch. This is a more significant role for the veteran defender, but it’s also for a terrible team and he does not have a significant role on the power play, so maybe don’t rush to the waiver wire immediately, just consider him as a potential short-term option if injuries hit your blueline.
#18 The Jordan Binnington experience can be a bit of a roller coaster, with ups and downs, thrills, and spills, but when he is on, the St. Louis Blues netminder can be a difference maker. In 10 games since the Christmas break, for example, Binnington has a 6-3-1 record with a .928 save percentage. That will play in any league and makes Binnington a much more appealing fantasy option.
#19 Although it is difficult for any goaltender to put up great numbers in San Jose, Mackenzie Blackwood is doing his level best. In nine games since the Christmas break, the 27-year-old netminder has a 4-3-1 record with a .923 save percentage. It would be only the deepest of leagues that could justify taking a Sharks goaltender, but Blackwood is at least making himself a viable fantasy option and the way that goaltending has fluctuated throughout the league this season, it’s always worth considering one that is on a good run.
#20 Among players to play at least 150 minutes in all situations since January 1, the leaders for individual expected goals per 60 minutes are: Zach Hyman (2.64), Dmitri Voronkov (1.91), T.J. Oshie (1.89), Matthew Tkachuk (1.83), Chris Kreider (1.79), Kyle Palmieri (1.77), Yanni Gourde (1.71), John Tavares (1.64), David Pastrnak (1.62), and Joe Pavelski (1.62). A few things stand out. First, is that Hyman is getting way more chances than anyone else in the league but players like Voronkov, Oshie, Palmieri, and Gourde are all available in quite a few leagues. Fantasy hockey rewards actual goals rather than expected goals, but the process of generating expected goals should have a payoff with real goals at some point, too.
]]>

Although the Vancouver Canucks acquiring Elias Lindholm from the Calgary Flames on Wednesday in exchange for Andrei Kuzmenko, two prospects (Hunter Brzustewicz and Joni Jurmo) and two 2024 picks (a first rounder and a conditional fourth-round selection) wasn’t the first trade of the 2023-24 campaign, you could make the argument that the blockbuster marks the real beginning of what could be a very busy month and change of trades.
The Flames have to be really happy with the return they got for a player who might have left as an unrestricted free agent this summer anyway. Although Kuzmenko hasn’t fit in with Vancouver this season, recording just eight goals and 21 points after finishing 2022-23 with 39 goals and 74 points in 81 outings, he’ll be given a fresh start in Calgary. Kuzmenko shouldn’t be expected to bounce back to his level of production from last season, but he might prove to be a decent top-six forward and replace at least some of the offense lost from Lindholm.
In the long run, Brzustewicz has been looking fantastic in OHL Kitchener this campaign, posting eight goals, 69 points and a plus-30 rating through 47 contests. Jurmo, who is currently playing for KooKoo of the Finnish hockey league, also has the potential to eventually benefit the Flames’ defensive corps. Then, of course, there is the first-round pick, which gives Calgary an opportunity to further boost its prospect pool. Ultimately, it will be a long time before we’ll know definitively if this trade worked out for the Flames, but what we can say today is that Calgary set a high standard for this year’s rental market.
On the Canucks’ end, Lindholm should be a good fit. Although his scoring is a bit down this year at 32 points (nine goals) through 49 contests compared to 64 points (22 goals) and 82 points (42) in 2022-23 and 2021-22, respectively, Lindholm hasn’t had ideal linemates in Calgary this year and should have better forwards to play off in Vancouver, so his offensive production might increase thanks to this trade. It also helps that the 29-year-old is versatile and capable of playing a two-way game while serving either as a center or a right winger. Due in part to that versatility, there’s an argument to be made that he was the top candidate on this year’s rental market, so the Canucks scooping him up well before the deadline is a nice win on their part.
Vancouver already had the second-best offense in the league (3.80 goals per game), but an argument could be made that the forward corps was somewhat top-heavy with a huge drop after JT Miller, Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser, who have 67, 64 and 52 points, respectively, and the Canucks’ next best forward in Conor Garland, who has just 24 points. It’s dangerous for a team to be that top heavy come playoff time, and Lindholm helps address that.
With there being no guarantee that Lindholm will stay with Vancouver after his six-year, $29.1 million contract expires this summer, it’s clear that the Canucks are betting heavily on the 2024 playoffs, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them make further additions before the deadline, and now that the Canucks have started the arms race with a bang, other contenders might feel eager to make splashes of their own. In fact, the acquisition of Lindholm might have been what influenced Winnipeg to pull the trigger on trading a 2024 first-round pick and 2027 conditional third-round selection to Montreal in exchange for Sean Monahan on Friday.
This should be the start of a fun trade season.
The Bruins will kick off their post-All-Star break schedule with a home stretch involving the Flames on Tuesday, the Canucks on Thursday and the Capitals on Saturday. The Canucks will be a tough adversary, but Calgary and Washington have been slipping out of the playoff picture.
Charlie Coyle will look to continue his fantastic run after contributing eight goals and 21 points over his past 17 contests, including 12 points (four goals) during his active eight-game scoring streak. After recording 44 and 45 points over the 2021-22 and 2022-23 campaigns, respectively, Coyle has taken a huge leap forward with 42 points through 49 appearances this year, but that jump makes some sense given his increased responsibilities. He’s averaging a career-high 18:02 of ice time and is likely to remain in that top-center role.
Trent Frederic has taken a step forward this season as well. After setting career highs in 2022-23 with 17 goals and 31 points in 79 contests, he’s already collected 14 goals and 29 points across 49 outings this campaign. Frederic has been inconsistent but is enjoying a five-game scoring streak in which he’s supplied a goal and six points.
Speaking of inconsistent forwards, James van Riemsdyk has been a weird one. The 34-year-old has enjoyed some good stretches along with prolonged cold streaks, but he’s also had big nights that don’t seem to lead anywhere. Over his past 12 contests, he has a solid two goals and 10 points, but that production has come entirely due to four multi-point efforts sprinkled in amongst eight scoreless showings. It makes him a somewhat frustrating option, especially in daily leagues, but in standard season-long leagues, van Riemsdyk still has a bit of value as long as you’re willing to tolerate his day-to-day unpredictability.
The Avalanche are one of the few teams slated to play four games next week, although all their games will be on the road. They’ll face the Rangers on Monday, the Devils on Tuesday, the Hurricanes on Thursday and the Panthers on Saturday.
With three road games in the span of four nights, it seems reasonable to believe Ivan Prosvetov will soon get his first start since Jan. 6. However, Prosvetov has struggled this campaign with a 4-3-1 record, 3.16 GAA and .895 save percentage across 11 outings and all his potential adversaries (the Rangers, New Jersey and Carolina) are strong offensively, so don’t pick up the 24-year-old unless you’re desperate for starts.
If you’re looking for someone on the Avalanche to grab, you might want to consider Ross Colton instead. He’s done well recently, providing six assists over his last three contests while averaging 16:08 of ice time, which is up from his season average of 13:50. He’s been respectable in 2023-24 with 10 goals, 26 points, 45 PIM and 64 points, and the 27-year-old could see his production increase in the second half if he can hold onto his current top-six role.
Of course, Nathan MacKinnon will continue to be the Avalanche’s standout forward. He’s on a 13-game scoring streak in which he’s provided an incredible 12 goals and 28 points, bringing him up to 31 markers and 84 points through 49 appearances this season. Although it would be an oversimplification to suggest that the Hart Trophy race involves only MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov (85 points), they have certainly pushed themselves a step above the rest of the pack at this point.
The Stars will play in Buffalo on Tuesday, Toronto on Wednesday and Montreal on Saturday. A three-game all-road schedule might not be worthy of highlighting if this was a busier week, but part of the appeal of this stretch is that the Stars are facing two teams significantly outside of the playoff picture in the Sabres and the Canadiens.
Thomas Harley is worthy of selection if he’s still available in your league. The 22-year-old is having a breakout campaign with 12 goals and 29 points in 49 games this season and has been incredibly lately, providing three goals and eight points across his last five outings. The one downside is he doesn’t have much of a power-play role. When Miro Heiskanen missed 10 straight games from Jan. 6-23 because of a lower-body injury, Harley’s ice time with the man advantage jumped to an average of 2:15 compared to his 0:52 per contest overall this season. However, now that Heiskanen’s back, Harley’s work with the man advantage has dropped.
Speaking of Heiskanen, he’s hit the ground running since returning, supplying a goal and three points (one on the power play) over his past two games. The 24-year-old won’t replicate his 73-point 2022-23 campaign, but Heiskanen’s five goals and 30 points across 39 outings this season is still nothing to sneeze at. As long as he stays healthy, he should be among the most productive offensive defensemen in the second half.
Dallas’ defense has done great in its own end too, ranking sixth this season with a 2.82 xGA/60, but Jake Oettinger hasn’t fulfilled his side of the deal. The 25-year-old had an earned reputation as one of the league’s top goaltenders going into this season, but he’s floundered in 2023-24 with a 16-9-2 record, 3.04 GAA and .900 save percentage through 28 contests. His struggles have continued too with him allowing 16 goals on 126 shots (.873 save percentage) over his past four appearances.
At least Dallas’ strong offense allows Oettinger to often win regardless, but Dallas certainly needs more from the netminder. Given the strength of the team in front of him, there is an argument to be made that he’s a solid buy-low candidate in the hope that he’ll rebound in the second half, but you would be taking a risk.
The Panthers will play at home versus the Flyers on Tuesday, the Capitals on Thursday and the Avalanche on Saturday. It’s a fairly tough series of games, though at least the Panthers will have the benefit of playing them in Amerant Bank Arena.
Sam Reinhart will be looking to extend his scoring streak beyond its current 13 games. During that stretch, he’s scored an incredible 14 goals, and he also has 20 markers over his past 19 outings. It’s hard to know what’s crazier, that the 28-year-old is on a roughly 62-goal pace (37 tallies through 49 contests) or the fact that’s good enough for only second place in the goal-scoring race.
Regardless, Reinhart will be one to watch once play resumes, as will his similarly hot teammate Matthew Tkachuk, who has contributed 11 goals and 27 points over his past 15 appearances. Tkachuk had a terrible stretch from Nov. 16-Dec. 14 in which he recorded two goals and three points across 14 outings, but slumps of that extent are rare for the 26-year-old, so it’s fair to expect that to be the only extreme drought he deals with this year.
Of course, Reinhart and Tkachuk are already taken in virtually every fantasy league. If you’re looking for a pickup from Florida because the team is somewhat top heavy offensively, but Sam Bennett is the exception. He’s not having an amazing campaign overall with 11 goals and 23 points through 37 contests, but he’s been great recently, providing six goals and 13 points over his last 14 appearances.
Toronto has three reasonably spread-out games next week. The Maple Leafs will host the Islanders on Monday and the Stars on Wednesday before visiting Ottawa on Saturday.
It’s believed Joseph Woll (ankle) is close to practicing, but he likely won’t factor into any of those three games. Instead, Ilya Samsonov might get all the work for the coming week. Earlier this campaign, that would he been something for the Maple Leafs to fear, but Samsonov appears to have turned a corner, winning his last three games while saving 72 of 75 shots (.960 save percentage). It will be interesting to see if Samsonov can keep this up. If he does, then he might even be able to maintain the starting gig after Woll returns, which is something that appeared near impossible just a few weeks ago.
Up front, Toronto’s biggest story is, who else, Auston Matthews. He’s scored seven goals over his last six outings, bringing him up to 40 markers through 46 appearances in 2023-24. Earlier this year, I brought up the possibility of him reaching 50-in-50. The 26-year-old is almost certain to fall short of that mark, but his play in the first half is still nothing short of incredible. At this rate, he’ll become the first player of the salary cap era to reach the 60-goal milestone in two separate seasons.
Toronto’s scoring depth could use work, though, and it was hurt a little further by the loss of Calle Jarnkrok, who suffered a broken knuckle during practice last Friday and is consequently week-to-week. Nick Robertson is likely to play more consistently in Jarnkrok’s absence and might take advantage of the additional work. Robertson has seven goals and 14 points in 29 contests with the Maple Leafs this season as well as five goals and 11 points in nine outings with the AHL’s Marlies.
The Canucks are on the road next week and their overall competition is fierce, but at least they’ll be playing four games, so those with Vancouver players on their fantasy team will get plenty of opportunities to use them. The Canucks will travel for games in Carolina on Tuesday, Boston on Thursday, Detroit on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.
The big question is how Vancouver will deploy Lindholm. As mentioned up top, Lindholm is a versatile forward, who can play either center of the wing as well as up and down the lineup, so there are a lot of potential combinations the Canucks could go with.
One possibility is that Lindholm might skate alongside Elias Pettersson and Ilya Mikheyev. That’s a role Kuzmenko sometimes held before his departure, so it wouldn’t disrupt the Canucks’ lines too much. Alternatively, the Canucks might opt to load the top line with Miller, Pettersson and Boeser while having Lindholm headline the second unit as its center. Lindholm’s linemates in that scenario would likely be Pius Suter and Mikheyev, which would hurt Lindholm’s fantasy value compared to the opportunity to play alongside Miller or Pettersson. Still, any combination will likely involve Lindholm getting minutes on the top power-play unit, so he’ll at least get some time with Vancouver’s best forwards regardless.
Keep an eye on that situation during Vancouver’s practices immediately following the break to get some insight into how things might shake out.
One player who should benefit regardless is Thatcher Demko. He was already having a fantastic campaign with a 26-8-1 record, 2.44 GAA and .920 save percentage in 35 contests this season, and the team in front of him just got better offensively and defensively, so his job has been made proportionally easier. Naturally backup goaltender Casey DeSmith will get the same benefit when he’s between the pipes. DeSmith’s next opportunity to start will likely come over the weekend against either the Red Wings or the Capitals. If it’s against Washington, which ranks 30th offensively with 2.38 goals per game, then DeSmith will be a great pickup option for a situational start.
Speaking of the Capitals, they also have a busy week ahead of them. They’ll host the Canadiens on Tuesday, then play in Florida on Thursday and Boston on Saturday before returning home for Sunday’s contest versus the Canucks. It’s not an easy schedule and worthy of note only because Washington is one of the few teams set to play four games.
Max Pacioretty left last Saturday’s contest because of a lower-body injury, but fortunately, it’s not related to his previous Achilles problems, per Tarik El-Bashir of Monumental Sports Network. Perhaps he’ll even be available for Tuesday’s game, though that’s far from a certainty. Pacioretty had been doing decently with a goal and seven points through 12 outings, and Washington is hurting for offense, so the Capitals could certainly use him back as soon as possible.
The silver lining is Dylan Strome is hot going into the second half. He’s provided three goals over his last two games, bringing him up to 19 markers and 31 points across 47 appearances in 2023-24. T.J. Oshie is also enjoying a good run. The 37-year-old had just two goals and four points over his first 22 outings this year, but dating back to Jan. 13, he’s collected six goals and eight points in eight games.
Then there’s Alex Ovechkin, who the Capitals have to hope picks up the pace after the break. He’s disappointed this campaign with nine goals and 31 points through 44 appearances. Ovechkin seems to be heating up, though, with three goals and 11 points over his last 11 games, so maybe the worst is behind him.
]]>
Review: In the entirety of NHL history, a defenseman has reached the 100-point milestone just 15 times. Erik Karlsson accomplished that feat in 2022-23, but despite recording 25 goals and 76 assists with San Jose, the Sharks finished near the bottom of the league with a 22-44-16 record. How did a team featuring one of the all-time greatest individual performances out of a defenseman do that bad? For starters, despite having an elite offensive blueliner, the Sharks’ overall defense was terrible, finishing 25th in 5-on-5 expected goals against (191.27). Some teams can mask a poor defense with good goaltending, but not the 2022-23 Sharks. James Reimer and Kaapo Kahkonen were a truly horrendous netminding duo, combining for a 3.64 GAA and an .886 save percentage. San Jose also had just four forwards breach the 40-point milestone and none reach 70 points, so even with Karlsson’s offensive efforts, the Sharks ranked 25th in goals per game (2.84). Without any help, Karlsson’s efforts ultimately just served to lower the Sharks’ chances of getting elite prospect Connor Bedard in the lottery and keeping them out of the top-three in the 2023 NHL Draft.
What’s Changed? The Sharks clearly need to rebuild and to that end, they dealt Karlsson to Pittsburgh over the summer, receiving a package that primarily included draft picks, but also resulted in San Jose getting veteran forwards Mikael Granlund and Mike Hoffman as well as defenseman Jan Rutta. The Sharks also acquired goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood from New Jersey to replace Reimer, who left as a free agent, and they accepted Anthony Duclair from Florida, who the Panthers moved mostly for cap purposes, but should get a chance to re-establish himself as a top-six forward in San Jose.
What would success look like? Another terrible campaign is probably in their best interests. The Sharks have failed to make the playoffs for the past four years, but they’ve been slow to fully commit to a rebuild, which has arguably only served to extend their period of pain. Even the 2023-24 squad is likely to be in that awkward position of being both bad and full of veterans. At least if they struggle, that’d position them to get another high draft pick and keep their focus squarely on the future. The veterans may be moved for further picks at the trade deadline.
What could go wrong? Things can’t get much worse in San Jose. Arguably, the worst-case scenario would actually be if the veteran cast of Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, Hoffman, Granlund and Duclair – the youngest of which is Duclair at 28 – do just enough to keep the Sharks out of the top-five in the next draft.
Top Breakout Candidate: Sharks fans looking for some reason to watch the 2023-24 campaign should pay attention to William Eklund. Taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2021 draft, Eklund has high-end potential and is coming off an encouraging campaign in which he recorded 41 points in 54 AHL contests along with two goals and three points in eight games with the Sharks. He has a chance to make the Sharks out of training camp and serve in a top-six capacity.
A power forward with soft hands, 29-year-old Hertl topped 60 points last season for the third time in his career. He is not especially fast but is excellent at using his size to protect the puck and extend plays in the offensive zone. Hertl is strong on faceoffs, winning more than 53.0% for his career and has been an effective play driver for the Sharks even if the supporting cast is suspect. Hertl could use some better goaltending behind him. He had a Corsi percentage of 52.5% and an expected goals percentage of 52.7% and yet the Sharks were outscored 68-53 with him on the ice in those situations. Hertl does not look for his own shot often enough. He had a nine-game stretch from March 4 through March 20 during which he recorded 35 shots on goal, putting four into the net, but that pace of shot generation was atypical and did not last. He followed up that stretch with 20 shots on goal in his next 11 games. Hertl started the season slowly, with four points (1 G, 3 A) in the first 10 games, but followed that up with 31 points (12 G, 19 A) over his next 25 games. Even with a shaky supporting cast, Hertl can be expected to contribute 25 goals and 65 points for the Sharks.
The 34-year-old who has logged 927 regular-season games for the Sharks just put up 67 points (27 G, 40 A), tying the second highest single-season point total of his career. In November, he had an eight-game stretch during which he produced 11 points (7 G, 4 A). Couture can generate some offensive production, but he has a track record of mediocre possession numbers, and 2016-2017 was the last time that the Sharks outscored the opposition during 5-on-5 play with Couture on the ice. Oddly enough, he has become worse in the faceoff circle, which is unusual. Most players take some time to get accustomed to taking faceoffs in the league and get better as time goes on. In his first five seasons, Couture won 51.7% of his draws. Since then, he has won 46.6% and he took 1,349 faceoffs last season, easily the most of his career. Couture is at the age when age-related decline could start to have an impact, but 25 goals and 55-60 points should be within range for him because he is still going to play a major role in San Jose.
An Achilles injury limited Duclair to just 20 games last season and he managed just two goals, but he contributed 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 20 playoff games and scored a career high 31 goals and 58 points the year before, so there is reason to be hopeful for a rebound in his production in a full season in 2023-2024. When he is on his game, Duclair uses his speed to get out ahead of the play and will cut hard to the net, where he is very comfortable finishing with a deke. While Duclair’s offensive game continues to soar, his play away from the puck has suffered, so that is an area of focus for the 2023-2024 season. Duclair played just 20 games last season and somehow had a 17-game goal-scoring drought, scoring in his second and 20th games of the season. The Sharks are Duclair’s seventh NHL team, but they also offer a quality opportunity for a bounce-back season and if he could contribute 45 points, that would be a relatively strong bounce-back performance.
A six-time 20-goal scorer, the 33-year-old winger nevertheless scored just 14 goals for Montreal last season, his lowest total since 2013-2014. Hoffman’s shooting percentage dropped in his two seasons with the Canadiens, to 9.6%, after scoring on 12.0% of his shots before that, so there is a chance that he could get a boost in his finishing rate. Even in a modestly productive season, Hoffman had a 14-game stretch during which he tallied 13 points (2 G, 11 A) and that occurred while he scored on just 5.3% of his shots. One thing to watch with Hoffman is how much ice time he gets in San Jose. He is entering the final season of his contract, and if he scores, there might be teams interested in acquiring him before the trade deadline, so the Sharks will have some incentive to put Hoffman in a position to succeed. Of course, success is a relative term at this stage of Hoffman’s career. If he finishes the season with 15 goals and 35 points, that will have to be considered a success.
Although he is a veteran with four 50-point seasons to his credit, Granlund is coming off a miserable season which he finished by scoring five points (1 G, 4 A) in 21 games with the Penguins after he was acquired from Nashville at the trade deadline. He started the season much better, contributing 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 11 games for the Predators. The 31-year-old playmaker can play center and wing though with the Sharks’ influx of wingers this offseason, Granlund may be needed more in the middle of the ice. His shot generation, which was never his strong suit in the first place, has collapsed to less than 1.50 shots per game in the past three seasons and that really needs to change if he is going to have a positive impact. The move to San Jose will give Granlund a chance at a fresh start, albeit with a team that is likely to be fighting an uphill battle most nights. A 45-point season should still be well within his grasp, with the expectation that he can earn quality ice time on a team that lacks proven forwards.
The 29-year-old winger has played just three NHL seasons, and barely saw the ice when he played with Toronto in his first season, but Barabanov did record a career high 47 points (15 G, 32 A) in 68 games last season. He may have been the beneficiary of San Jose’s limited depth on the wings, as he ended up playing more than 18 minutes per game, but Barbaranov does not generate a lot of shots and his lofty percentages suggest that he does not have a lot of room to expect an increase in his production. He finished last season strong, tallying 19 points (9 G, 10 A) in his last 23 games, but that production came on just 38 shots on goal, which is not enough to expect those numbers to be sustainable. He should be able to go for 40 points again this season, but if newcomers eat into his ice time, his point totals could dip, too.
Coming off an injury-shortened 2021-2022 season, Labanc contributed 33 points (15 G, 18 A) but he found himself on the doghouse, too, despite providing solid defensive play. From January 11 through March 11, a span of 16 games Labanc had one assist and averaged just 11:04 of ice time per game. His ice time and production picked up after that but with the Sharks acquiring a lot of new wingers in the offseason, Labanc is going to be facing a challenge for ice time in 2023-2024, which seems weird for the returning player who led Sharks regulars in Corsi percentage and expected goals percentage last season. At his best, Labanc is a strong passer with a heavy shot, one that he should try to utilize more frequently. Labanc accrued 56 points during the 2018-2019 campaign, but it feels like he is a long way from that now. A more reasonable expectation for this season is in the 35-point range but there is probably more upside for Labanc if he gets traded to a team that could use his skill in their top six.
The Red Wings had enough after Zadina managed just seven points (3 G, 4 A) in 30 games, but that frustration had been building for quite some time. He compiled 68 points in 190 games with the Red Wings, scoring 12 of his 28 goals on the power play, so the sixth pick in the 2018 Draft was given chances to produce and the numbers just weren’t there. Can he resurrect his career in San Jose? For Zadina, it’s worth a try and for the Sharks, they might as well buy low on him and see if he can recapture any of the form that made him such a highly touted prospect. Zadina’s most productive season in Detroit saw him produce a modest 24 points (10 G, 14 A) in 74 games in 2021-2022 and exceeding that might be the most reasonable target for his first season in San Jose. There is a world in which he secures a regular spot on a scoring line and possibly doubles that point total, but there is also a world in which the influx of wingers to San Jose leaves Zadina on the lineup bubble and then the point total could collapse.
Acquired from the Devils as part of the Timo Meier trade, Zetterlund had a miserable start to his San Jose career, managing zero goals and three assists in 22 games for the Sharks, but doesn’t tell the whole story. Zetterlund had an expected goals percentage of 37.8% and San Jose was outscored 16-7 during 5-on-5 play with Zetterlund on the ice. At the start of the season, Zetterlund had an instant impact for New Jersey, scoring 13 points (5 G, 8 A) in his first 20 games for the Devils, but he could not keep that pace, following it up with zero goals and five assists in his next 20 games. Zetterlund is a sturdy winger who can battle down low to create scoring chances, but it remains to be seen if he has the ability to score enough to stay in the top half of the lineup. With so many players competing for spots on the wing in San Jose, Zetterlund has a wide range of outcomes, which could mean playing in the top six, or falling out of the lineup entirely. Given the uncertainty, expecting 25-30 points seems about right.
A reliable checking center, Sturm landed a bigger role in San Jose last season, playing a career high 14:44 per game and finishing the season with career highs of 14 goals and 26 points. Sturm has good size and won 55.8% of his faceoffs last season, so there is a role for him to fill. That role may not be appreciated as much on a team that is likely to be in a lottery position at season’s end. Even if he tends to play in more of a defensive role, Sturm is not shy about crashing the net to score greasy goals. He scored five goals during an eight-game stretch in October, which may have set unrealistic expectations, because he could obviously not continue that pace. With a secure spot in the Sharks lineup, Sturm could be expected to produce 25 to 30 points from his primarily defensive role.
While he has never produced more than 17 points in an NHL season, Ferraro has played more than 21 minutes per game for each of the past three seasons and has put up more than 120 hits and 120 blocked shots in each of the past two. He is a strong skater whose defensive impact has declined, so he could use a rebound season to get back on track. While Ferraro’s peripheral stats are strong, he could be in the mix for more of an offensive role, mostly because someone has to take on the minutes that used to belong to Erik Karlsson. Although Ferraro’s career high is 17 points, he has been sharing a blueline with the likes of Karlsson and Brent Burns, both of whom are no longer in San Jose. Without any proven options ready to step into a bigger role on the Sharks blueline, Ferraro could take advantage of the opportunity and might have a chance to produce 25 to 30 points. It says something about the state of the Sharks defense that the blueliner who might have the greatest impact had a 24-game stretch last season during which he recorded a single assist.
The 29-year-old blueliner played a career high 19:40 per game for the Sharks last season, finishing with a career best 24 points (1 G, 23 A). While those are not eye-popping numbers by any means, Benning is a proven commodity on the Sharks blueline and that will give him a chance to play a significant role in 2023-2024. Benning plays a heady game, thriving on smooth skating and good decision making with the puck, but has not been given a big role in his NHL career. Looking at the competition for playing time in San Jose, Benning is as good a bet as any to handle a more significant role. During a 10-game stretch in November and December last season, when he was playing nearly 21 minutes per game, Benning accumulated nine assists, so that small sample does suggest there could be some offensive potential if he gets consistent minutes. While that might be the case, expecting anything more than 25 points could be considered optimistic.
A 28-year-old who has played a total of 95 games, Burroughs showed enough potential in Vancouver last season to land a three-year contract with San Jose. He is not big, but plays an aggressive game, putting up 165 hits in 48 games for the Canucks. He is also not afraid to drop the gloves, when necessary. On San Jose’s rebuilding blueline, there will be a chance for Burroughs to earn a bigger role than he has ever had before in the NHL. He was effective enough in his limited role with Vancouver and if he continues to play with that edge to his game, that could give him him the inside track to a top-four role with the Sharks. Although Burroughs has just 11 points in 95 career games, he is poised to get what is, for him, an unprecedented opportunity on San Jose’s rebuilding blueline. It might not result in even 20 points, but Burroughs could also deliver 250 hits and 125 blocked shots over the course of a full season.
The San Jose Sharks just haven’t been able to figure out what to do in net lately. The Pacific Division team doggedly refused to move on from a floundering Martin Jones for almost too long, then went through a quick succession of short-term band-aids in James Reimer, Adin Hill, and Kaapo Kahkonen before trading for MacKenzie Blackwood this off-season. The hope, almost certainly, is that Blackwood will be able to reset his game and his mindset after struggling to produce in New Jersey amidst a rash of injuries.
There’s a potential for success there. Blackwood was far from what a playoff-bound New Jersey needed last year – he struggled with even more injuries, and prospect Akira Schmid proved he was more than ready to take over as an NHL regular to tandem with Vitek Vanecek. But his game style, which utilizes his bigger frame to take up space in the net and doesn’t require a lot of aggressive challenging or puck-handling, could be a better fit for San Jose than either Adin Hill or Kaapo Kahkonen’s more movement-reliant game play styles. And since Hill didn’t shine for San Jose (and Kahkonen will be back this season but didn’t do much to inspire confidence last year) it’s worth considering that moving in the other direction stylistically could work out in the team’s favor. Add in the fact that Blackwood performed much closer to his expected output last year than Kahkonen – he was near the middle of the pack across the league in terms of expected goals numbers, while Kahkonen was nearly at the bottom of the league altogether – and there’s reason to hope that this change in scenery will be exactly what Blackwood needs. Now, he just needs to prove he can stay healthy.
Projected starts: 40-45
]]>
Sidney Crosby
Sidney Crosby opted for surgery in September of 2021 in order to address a nagging wrist injury that had been bothering him over the course of several years. He did not make his season debut until October 30th and went into the Covid-19 protocol immediately after, delaying his full return until mid-November. Having to play a bit of catchup with timing and conditioning post-surgery, Crosby scored just four goals through his first 18 games and was off to a bit of a slower start than usual. What followed was a tear of 27 goals in 53 games and a 1.35 points per game pace to end the season. Crosby has never finished a year below a point-per-game average, and it does not look like that’s going to change anytime soon. With the return of some of his familiar counterparts and a clean bill of health to his name, Crosby looks to get back to usual ways of \manipulating the pace of the game to create passing lanes that enable him to use his otherworldly vision and puck distribution abilities to his advantage. His connection with Jake Guentzel continues to evolve into a dynamic offensive partnership that enhances the work of both players regardless of the third wheel. While his game has evolved over time, Crosby is as lethal with the puck on his stuck as he has ever been. Head coach Mike Sullivan will continue to lean on the Crosby unit for his most difficult matchups and he aims to continue to be the main distributor of the top power-play unit. Crosby’s work in the boards and net front area with his low center of gravity and puck control abilities remain hallmarks of his game, while his backhand shot and pass from his flat blade continue to be as lethal as ever.
Jake Guentzel
It was a season of shaking narratives for Jake Guentzel. He showed he can perform without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in the lineup, registering 10 points in 12 games to carry the Penguins in their absence. He also proved he can still get it done in the playoffs, registering 10 points in seven playoff games after a string of difficult performances in years prior. It was Guentzel’s second time cracking the 40-goal plateau and his first season over a point per game average. An elaborate offensive toolbox is becoming the hallmark of Guentzel’s game. He boasts an underrated shot with a deceptive release, high-quality puck distribution ability and understanding of the game that enabled him to hit a career-high 44 assists last season, and most notably a ghost-like ability to remain unmarked in the offensive zone. Guentzel has become the encyclopedia example of “Hockey IQ” as he exploits the smallest areas of time and space to his advantage. Guentzel’s shot-quality generation rates were 2nd on the team behind Sidney Crosby. His 1.30 goals per 60 minutes at even-strength lead all Penguins last year. His consistency in finding the scoresheet was remarkable as he registered points in 20 of 21 games through December and January of 2021-22. Guentzel will look to build off this career year and will be granted every opportunity to do so alongside Sidney Crosby on the top line and power-play unit for the Penguins. A dynamic offensive talent, Guentzel’s toolbox seemingly gets deeper year after year. A bit of added muscle and weight was a boost to his game last year and should continue to pay dividends moving forward.
Bryan Rust
Bryan Rust has become one of the most dynamic offensive threats in the Penguins forward group and was rewarded for that in the offseason with a six-year deal worth a total of $30.75 million dollars. Deployed in any manner of situation at even-strength, Rust eclipsed the 20-goal mark for the third consecutive season and his 58 points in the regular season was a career high. A utility-like presence in the top-six, the coaching staff has deployed Rust alongside both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin for extended periods of time depending on the perceived need of the respective centers at any given moment. Rust continues to exhibit a high level of competency around carrying the puck into the offensive zone with possession and using that to generate shots and high-quality passing attempts to his teammates. A menace around the net-front area, Rust can be found in all the traditional goal-scoring areas. While he does not boast any one overwhelming skill offensively, his hockey sense combined with his quickness and nose for the net make him a menace in the offensive zone. His shot has developed a quick release with pinpoint accuracy. Rust repeatedly shows the ability to hit the net from awkward and compromised positions and had a high number of deflections from around the mouth of the net last year. Rust will look to establish a bit more in the way of consistency in the coming season. For instance, he registered 21 points in 10 games in January of 2022, but only 3 points in 13 games in April of 2022. His shooting percentage varied wildly over the course of the year, and he suffered some missed time due to injury. Overall, Rust has proven to be a valuable presence anywhere he appears within the top two lines.
Evgeni Malkin
Evgeni Malkin will look to take advantage of a clean bill of health going into this season as he was sidelined until January of 2022 as he recovered from summer knee surgery. He ended the year over a point per game in the regular season and rounded out at a goals-per-60 rate that was 2nd on the team to Jake Guentzel. While his contract negotiation came down to the wire, Malkin re-signed a four-year, $24.4 million dollar contract extension to round out the return of the Penguins core for additional runs at a Stanley Cup. Malkin’s shot remains a high-powered howitzer and he continues to be a high-level puck distributor with quality puck distribution capabilities to his linemates. Power remains the essence of his game and despite his knee injuries he is still a strong skater with great lateral mobility despite some of his injuries. Malkin’s ability to carry the puck in the zone successfully has taken a hit in recent years and his bullish approach with the puck on his stick may require revisiting at his age. Service time has been another concern for Malkin. He enters this season with his knee surgery behind him and a full summer of a traditional training schedule. Malkin has made it very clear that when he is in the lineup, he is a force to be reckoned with at even-strength and on the power-play. It would not be unreasonable to expect a renaissance-like season from him if he can remain healthy. It is a safe bet to assume he will remain the de-facto quarterback on the Penguins top power-play unit.
Rickard Rakell
Arriving via trade in March of 2022 from the Ducks for Zach Aston-Reese, a 2nd round draft pick, and goaltending prospect Calle Clang, Rickard Rakell played 19 games for the Penguins in the regular season finishing with 13 points and a variety of roles played throughout the lineup. When all is said and done, the expectation is that Rakell will appear somewhere within the Penguins top-six forward group this season, either alongside Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. This sets Rakell up to have a year of career-highs in multiple offensive categories. Rakell’s time with Crosby last year proved to be most fruitful. Rakell played a wrecking-ball role in the vein of a Chris Kunitz on the top line, opening space in the tough areas of the ice for Crosby and Jake Guentzel to work their magic offensively. Regardless of what center he appears with; Rakell has shown a willingness to retrieve pucks and take advantage of the open space that can come with playing alongside one of Crosby or Malkin. Rakell also showed a penchant for individual scoring chance creation in his own right, showcasing some high-level stickhandling and puck-carrying capabilities in his time with the Penguins. Fresh off signing a new six-year, $30 million dollar contract, Rakell figures to be a fixture within the top two lines and second power-play unit of the Penguins. It would not be unreasonable to see his goal-scoring ability receive a significant bump this season given the change in his environment. While he may play a puck support and retrieval role, he will have plenty of opportunities to showcase his heavy wrist-shot playing alongside two playmaking centers.
Jason Zucker
Jason Zucker has simply not been able to stay in the Penguins lineup for any considerable period. He missed half of the regular season in 2021-22 and when he was in the lineup it was a story of being unable to convert prime scoring chances. Zucker finds himself in the right place at the right times and boasts some good numbers regarding zone entries and his ability to distribute the puck on the fly but has not been able to maintain any ability to deposit his chances in his time with the Penguins. Zucker is a strong skater with a great ability to angle away time and space and force the opposing breakout into bad decisions. His ability to retrieve pucks and gain the zone have been strong, but he has lacked an ability to effectively distribute the puck in the offensive zone and has struggled to get it into the hands of his teammates. His shot is strong, and his one-timer may be the hallmark of his offensive abilities. More than anything, Zucker needs to stay in the lineup and establish some level of consistency in his performances. His shooting percentage suffered immensely last year, and it is reasonable to expect that will change if he can remain a volume shooter. Zucker will be afforded the opportunity to crack the Penguins top-six forward group again this year this season. Remaining in the lineup will be the biggest focal point for Zucker as he has proven he is an extremely capable player that fits into the Mike Sullivan system despite his lack of availability. The scoring chances will be available to aid an increase to his finishing ability.
Danton Heinen
Danton Heinen is not a household name by any means, but he did a lot with a little ice time last year and controlled the game at even-strength for the Penguins. Heinen’s 57% share over the raw scoring chances while he was on the ice at even-strength put him top five among Penguin forwards in that regard. A volume shooter, Heinen’s approach to play was simple but effective for his first year in Pittsburgh. Heinen put up solid performances through all three zones in his debut year with Pittsburgh. His defensive play was sound, he boasted quality returns in moving the puck up ice and into the offensive zone of attack, and he ended the season on the cusp of the 20-goal mark with 18 total in all situations. Heinen returns to Pittsburgh on a one-year, $1.1 million dollar deal that reportedly saw him take less money in the face of more lucrative offers to remain with the Penguins. Heinen did not find the scoresheet with a lot of consistency last season and went through a few dry patches, but his utility in driving play, controlling most of the scoring chances in the game, and playing sound defensive hockey make up for any lapses he experiences in the scoring department. Heinen is a safe bet to repeat or hurdle last season’s performance given his environment and will continue to be used in a Swiss army knife fashion by Mike Sullivan and the coaching staff. That utility often includes appearances in the top-six forward group where he experiences success alongside Evgeni Malkin in particular.
Kasperi Kapanen
A great summation of Kasperi Kapanen’s dismal 2021-22 campaign is the fact that he scored two more points than he did the prior season in 39 more games. Kapanen took a step back across the board and struggled to find the back of the net with any level of consistency. While he gained the offensive zone with possession on a frequent enough of a basis, these were often fruitless ventures that saw him miss the net on poorly selected shots, bypass opportunities passing opportunities, or simply lose possession of the puck for a turnover. It was not just that Kapanen struggled to score, it is that the peripheral statistics of play-driving and controlling the game at even-strength were also unkind to him. There was a brief reunion between Kapanen and Evgeni Malkin once the latter returned the lineup from knee surgery, but the sparks never flew from a chemistry perspective and Kapanen ended up sliding down the lineup as his goal-scoring droughts grew more and more frequent. The expectation is that Kapanen will play more of a support role outside of the top six forward group this season and that may net him a level of competition and deployment that enables him to control the play more than he did last year. A better grasp of the even-strength game would net him a greater total of scoring opportunities to work his way out of his slump. Kapanen was brought back on a two-year contract at a $3.2 million average per year. He will need to out-pace his performance in 2021-22 in order to make his cap value worth it.
Jeff Carter
Jeff Carter’s initial impact for the Penguins upon arriving via trade from Los Angeles was stout and promising. Carter looked like a player renewed and that momentum carried over into the start of 2021-22. In the absence of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, Carter stormed out of the gate as the top line center and general manager Ron Hextall responded with a two-year contract extension worth a total of $6.25 million dollars. Carter’s performance took a precipitous turn downhill from that point forward. Carter spent much of his even-strength ice time hemmed in the defensive zone. There was a struggle to consistently create offense and elongate shift time spent in the offensive zone. While Carter’s skating is not what it once was, it also is not a detriment to his game. He still possesses a tricky shot that is deceptive, hard, and difficult to track. Carter remains a difficult element to manage in front of the net and in the battle areas of the ice. He did not play a major role transitioning the puck out of the defensive zone or into the offensive zone. At his peak, Carter is a strong element on the cycle that can still take advantage of shooting opportunities in a variety of locations of the ice. The issue remains that his ability to control the play at even-strength has diminished in a significant fashion. Carter heads into the 2022-23 season at 38 years old. While he will not need to serve in the elevated role required of him last year due to injury, there’s hope that he can level his performance with mitigated minutes and sensical deployments.
Kris Letang
It was a renaissance year for Kris Letang on the blueline for the Penguins. He set career highs in assists with 58 and total points with 68. He finished seventh in Norris Trophy voting in his 16th year in the National Hockey League. Letang managed his highest ice time averages since the 2018-19 season and showcased his high levels of conditioning by playing over 25 minutes per night on average. Letang shot the puck a lot more than usual last year and landed among the top ten defensemen in the league with regards to gross shot volume, seemingly sacrificing power for accuracy in his shots to achieve that result. Despite the difficult nature of his deployments, Letang was able to control shot-attempts and raw scoring chances with a high level of regularity. A priority for management in the offseason, Letang signed a six-year contract worth a total of $36.6 million dollars that will likely round out his career as a member of the Penguins. Expect Letang to continue to be used in high leverage situations with a great deal of confidence from the coaching staff. He orchestrates most of the movement up ice on the breakout of the power-play. Letang’s skating is still the backbone of his game, and it enables him to take risks offensively and provide positive impacts to the teams’ offensive outputs as a result of that mobility and chance-taking. Letang’s defensive work in transition is not what it was once, but he maintains an aggressive gap in one-on-one situations. Letang shows no signs of slowing down and his training regimen has enabled him to play 78 games last season despite his big minutes.
Jeff Petry
Jeff Petry makes his way to Pittsburgh via a trade that sent defenseman Mike Matheson and a fourth-round pick to the Montreal Canadiens for Petry and forward Ryan Poehling. The Penguins wanted to get bigger and more physical on the blueline and they accomplish that in Petry without having to sacrifice anything in the way of offense. Landscape wise, it is going to be a much different environment for Petry. He will likely feature in similar role at even-strength, playing a puck carrying role on the second defensive pairing. While he does not produce the same type of elite play-driving offensive results he once did, he is still extremely competent with the puck on his stick and is a boost to the teams’ offensive goals. He will have an opportunity to work steadily alongside Evgeni Malkin’s unit, giving him a high-quality offensive-minded center to work with. A potential partnership between Petry and Marcus Pettersson would give Petry a steady, defensive-minded partner to enable him to focus on offensive outputs and carrying the puck on the breakout. Petry is coming off a year where his goal-scoring and offensive performance took a hit. A new landscape should bring about a return to success offensively. He still has a powerful, accurate shot that he uses with a high level of regularity and will sneak low into the offensive zone to put it to use. Petry is still a strong skater that can defend forwards off the rush with a great deal of success. The Penguins will look for him to use his size to provide a stern presence in the home plate area of the net.
Brian Dumoulin
Brian Dumoulin will be returning to the lineup having suffered an MCL injury in the playoffs. That is a notable mention because Dumoulin has suffered a variety of lower body injuries over the course of the last several years that have seemingly impacted his mobility and ability to keep a strong gap in defensive coverage. Dumoulin’s hallmark, a strong style of skating with great individual defensive coverage in the neutral and defensive zones, has taken a hit over time and attrition has made its mark in his game. For the first time last season, Dumoulin was removed from Kris Letang’s side on the Penguins top defensive pairing. While that may not be a true harbinger of things to come, it is a testament to the theory that something seemed a bit off with the Penguins defensive guru last season. Dumoulin will look to enter the year healthy and shake some of the nagging problems that have bothered him over the course of the last few years. At his best, he is still a wet blanket over the other team’s best offensive forwards. His patient and reliable approach to defense enables his more offensively gifted counterparts to take chances and risks in the offensive zone. Dumoulin is not afraid to use the body, but physicality has never been the backbone of his defensive game. His strong skating and pivot-ability in transition, combined with his long reach and active stick, make him a difficult player to move past for transitioning forwards. Those will be the elements Dumoulin looks to recapture as last year was an inconsistent performance from in him protecting his own blueline.
Marcus Pettersson
Marcus Pettersson is becoming the Penguins even-strength defensive specialist. While his game lacks a lot of flash and offensive utility, Pettersson produces great returns in preventing defensive zone entries from opposing forwards and can competently move the puck into the hands of safety. His strong skating and heads-up approach to the game in the defensive and neutral zones gave him the ability to control the game at even-strength last season. Pettersson controlled over 54 percent of the quality shots taken while he was on the ice at even-strength. His offensive skills have never been the focal point of his game, but he is a competent passer who can handle and distribute the puck adequately enough to find himself in the assist column on a regular basis. Pettersson’s hallmarks are a strong defensive gap that he uses to keep opposing forwards in front of him. He is a strong transition skater and can manage quick changes from offense to defense in a hurry without losing himself in the fray of the game. He has a good shot that is accurate and well-placed albeit used infrequently. Pettersson took on an elevated role in the post-season from an ice time perspective and that may be a harbinger of things to come with Jeff Petry in the fold alongside him. While lacking the pizzaz of some of his counterparts, Pettersson brings a unique and necessary defensive-minded focus to the Penguins defensive core that is more well-known for its ability to join the rush and play offense.
Tristan Jarry
Every year, it seems like there’s a tertiary storyline floating around the NHL theorizing that this season will be the final season of Pittsburgh’s Crosby-Malkin window. But while they certainly don’t have Vezina-caliber goaltending at the helm under now-established starter Tristan Jarry, the Surrey, BC native certainly doesn’t get enough credit for what he does for the team.
Jarry has quietly racked up six years in net for the Penguins now, logging his heaviest workload yet this past year and performing perfectly up to expectations in the process. He quieted concerns that he was following the Matt Murray decline timeline by bouncing back soundly from his mediocre 2020-21 season, posting a .919 save percentage and logging quality starts in over 62 percent of his games. The biggest contributor to his return to form was his consistency; while he had been sitting well above average in his quality start percentage the year prior as well, Jarry eliminated the stretches of poor performances by seeming to clean up his ability to get rattled by bad goals. He posted one fewer game with a sub-.850 save percentage than he had recorded the year prior, despite playing in nearly twenty more games – and while a closer look at his overall numbers from the last few seasons reveals that he never fell out of the top half of performers in the league, he shot back into the top ten with the outcomes he posted last year in particular. Now, he’ll get a chance to show that he can repeat that success for the Penguins this year, which could be one of the last years that Casey DeSmith backs him up before the team potentially takes a look at what a younger option like Joel Blomqvist to be his number two.
Projected starts: 55-60
]]>

A look at the underlying numbers supports the notion that the Maple Leafs are a slightly better team than the Lightning, but it gets more complicated when it is put into context. That is, the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions are facing a team that last won a Cup in 1967 and has not won a round in the playoffs since 2003-2004.
There was no easy matchup to be had coming out of the Atlantic Division this year and one of the Leafs or Lightning is going to be very disappointed with a first-round loss.
Toronto had six 20-goal scorers this season, led by Auston Matthews with 60. So much of the Maple Leafs attack runs through their big four forwards – Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander – but Alex Kerfoot, Ilya Mikheyev, and Pierre Engvall have been useful in supporting roles. Michael Bunting has been outstanding on the left wing with Matthews and Marner but is injured and may not be ready for the start of the playoffs. Ondrej Kase has been effective when healthy, too, and he is still trying to make his way back from a concussion.
The Lightning had to overhaul their third line after losing Blake Coleman, Yanni Gourde, and Barclay Goodrow last offseason, but they brought in Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul at the trade deadline and, along with Ross Colton and Corey Perry, the Lightning once again have some depth behind their stars. And their stars are proven on the biggest stage under the brightest lights. Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos are stars, while Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, and Anthony Cirelli are nice complementary pieces. Point was banged up late in the season and it would be a huge deal if he is not ready to go from the first puck drop in this series.
Toronto has been actively improving their blueline and the challenge now seems to be health and making sure they pick the right guys. Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, and Mark Giordano have all performed to expectations. Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl have both had question marks hanging over their play for most of the season. Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren have both been great while working on the third pair. That’s seven, plus Ilya Lyubushkin, who adds a physical edge and, suddenly, it’s not so easy for the Maple Leafs to use six when everyone is healthy. For all the grief that the Maple Leafs have taken for their defensive play over the years, they have excelled defensively this season, ranking sixth in score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts allowed and fourth in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes of 5v5 play. That’s the kind of defensive play that they will need to stymie Tampa Bay’s elite scoring forwards.
Victor Hedman is a perennial Norris Trophy contender, so the Lightning have that going for them. Ryan McDonagh, Mikhail Sergachev, and Erik Cernak have all proven to be big-time players in Tampa Bay’s recent Stanley Cup runs. Jan Rutta, Zach Bogosian, and Callan Foote provide the depth and the Lightning are only slightly behind Toronto when it comes in terms of shot suppression. Just as the Maple Leafs need their defense to respond to Tampa Bay’s top scoring forwards, the Lightning defense will have to neutralize Matthews, Marner, Tavares, and Nylander.
Early in this season, Maple Leafs goaltender Jack Campbell was playing at a ridiculously high level and there was nothing to worry about, at least until regression reared its ugly head and Campbell went through a long slump, followed by injury. He appeared to be back on track late in the season and the Maple Leafs will need him to play well just to escape the first round.
There is no team in the league that can have the same kind of confidence in their goaltender’s playoff performance as the Lightning do for Andrei Vasilevskiy. He did have an .856 save percentage in 2019 when the Lightning were shockingly swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round, but Vasilevskiy has a .924 save percentage in 81 career playoff games. He is a proven big-game goalie and that gives the Lightning an edge on virtually any team.
Toronto had the best power play in the league this season, scoring 10.23 goals per 60 minutes of 5v4 play. Having the league’s top goal scorer doesn’t hurt, as Auston Matthews has 16 power play goals, but John Tavares and William Nylander combined for 23 power play goals as well.
Tampa Bay’s power play has been above average, scoring 8.10 goals per 60 minutes during 5v4 play, but when it’s going, it is a terrifying experience, with Stamkos and Kucherov in opposing faceoff circles, ready to launch.
There is not much of a difference when it comes to penalty killing as the Maple Leafs and Lightning rank 11th and 12th, respectively, when it comes to fewest goals against during 4v5 play this season.
Statistically, it is easy enough to make a case for the Toronto Maple Leafs having a small edge over the Lightning based on the performance of the two clubs this season. However, that case gets more difficult when factoring in the relative histories of the two franchises. The Lightning have won back-to-back Stanley Cups and have the talent to legitimately vie for a third consecutive championship while the Maple Leafs are notorious for never getting out of the first round. Lightning in 7.
]]>

FAILED EXPERIMENT -This is a team built around Jonathan Toews (30-years-old) and Patrick Kane (29-years-old), both signed for five years at an identical $10.5 million AAV a season. Likewise, on defense they are tied to 33-year-old Brent Seabrook ($6.875 million AAV – six years) and 35-year-old Duncan Keith ($5.53 million AAV – five years). All four have a no movement clause. They are joined by 33-year-old goaltender Corey Crawford ($6.0 million AAV – two years).
They are committed to this group and in a win-now mode for the foreseeable future. The Panarin/Saad trade at the start of last season was a product of that thinking. It was an attempt to reunite one of the strongest possession duos in the NHL with Toews from 2012-13 to 2014-15 and two cups in those four years. It was a disappointment as Saad struggled scoring only 35 points. Patrick Kane saw his production drop to less than a point a game for the first time in seven seasons missing the magical chemistry he owned with Artemi Panarin - who outscored him in Columbus.
While a disappointing experiment both Saad and Toews were still strong in possession numbers ranking 17th (Toews 56.1% CF) and 22nd (Saad 55.8 CF%) and were snake bitten by their scoring percentages. Saad posted a 7.6% rate down from his career rate of 10.9%. He had averaged 12 percent over the previous four seasons. He will only turn 26-years-old this season and should be counted on for a turn around. Toews shot at 9.5 percent down almost 50 percent from his career average of 14.1%.
TINKERING AROUND THE EDGES – Bowman’s off-season work has been to add depth at each of the positions. At forward he traded prospects for a veteran, Marcus Kruger, from their cup wins. He had a season to forget in 2017-18, apparently playing through a sports hernia. He and the also acquired 38-year-old veteran Chris Kunitz who will join Kruger in stabilizing the fourth line.
On defense he added 28-year-old Brandon Manning through free agency to the ninth worst defense group in the NHL, with the ninth worse save percentage. He fills in the top four which include steady Connor Murphy who struggled early in his first season with the Hawks but found his game by seasons end. Depth beyond the top four is suspect and without bounce back seasons from the aging Keith and Seabrook it will have its challenges. Keith is probably the best candidate as another Hawk who was snake bit with shooting percentage (1.1% versus career 4.4%) after having scored at a 0.66 points per game pace in the previous four seasons – a 54-point 82-game pace.
CRAWFORD LOSS DEVASTATING - Goaltending was the difference last season, Crawford was lost to an injury after appearing in 28 games with a 0.929 SV%, 2.27 GAA and a playoff worthy 16-9-2 record. He was replaced by 25-year-old Anton Forsberg who was overwhelmed in his first NHL season with a 10-16-4 record with a 0.908 SV% and 2.97 goals against average. Bowman added another veteran in Cam Ward for one season at $3.0 million. Crawford is not expected to be at 100% by training camp. Ward can play a decent amount of games having appeared in 43 last year and over 50 each of the previous three seasons in Carolina, but has posted consecutive save percentages of 0.906, 0.905 and 0.909 and represents a short-term solution.
The season was not all bleak news with encouraging performances from rookie Alex DeBrincat and sophomore Nick Schmaltz. They finished second and third in scoring respectively. DeBrincat led the team with 28 goals (third in rookie goal scoring). Schmaltz centered Patrick Kane on the second line much of the season giving the team two balanced lines up top. The provide much needed oxygen to a team with tight cap restriction with both on entry level contracts. There is much hope that Dylan Sikura can take on a similar role in the top six as a rookie after lighting it up in the NCAA. It is a lot to ask of a rookie, but barring trades the Hawks will need to draw on a prospect pool that suffered from the many years of winning.
Outlook - As many players that had poor season last year, they are all due to make a bounce back. If they can get a return to form and continued input from the youngsters, they can challenge for a playoff spot and will likely be under the radar this season.
]]>Ryan Miller – Missed Wednesday’s practice and Thursday’s preseason game with an upper-body injury. It’s not clear if he’s in any danger of missing the season opener or not.
Kevin Bieksa – In the same boat as Miller, in which I mean he missed the practice and game, but beyond that we don’t know much. The difference is Bieksa has a lower-body injury.
Ryan Getzlaf – Was also kept out of Thursday’s preseason game due to an ailment and we also don’t know much here. All three cases are wait-and-see, but we might get a better sense of things on Saturday given that it will be the Ducks’ last preseason game, so it will be interesting to see if one or more of the three can participate.
Arizona
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Latest on his knee injury is that he skated for roughly 35 minutes with an assistant coach on Thursday. Still appears to be questionable for the season opener.
Zac Rinaldo – He’s got a real shot of making the team, which would be noteworthy for those in fantasy leagues that use PIM as a category. He still has a five-game suspension he’d need to serve though if he does make the team (that incident took place back on Feb. 28, 2016 when he last participated in an NHL contest), so he wouldn’t be available for the season opener.
Buffalo
Jordan Nolan – Not too noteworthy, but he was claimed off waivers by Buffalo. He’s probably just going to end up being used as a fourth liner though.
Carolina
Justin Williams – He’s been skating on a line with Teuvo Teravainen and Jordan Staal. It looks like for tonight’s preseason game Janne Kuokkanen will be replacing Teravainen on that line, but that’s because Teravainen won’t be in the lineup.

Teuvo Teravainen – Speaking of that, Teravainen didn’t play in the third period of Wednesday’s contest either. It’s being billed as more precautionary than anything though, so unless there’s more here than meets the eye, I would assume he’ll be available for the season opener.
Lee Stempniak – Still has a hip/back injury and this whole has been on the vague side. Stempniak undergoing an MRI was mentioned last week, but Hurricanes coach Bill Peters said he didn’t know the results. What we do know is that he won’t play in Friday’s preseason game.
Chicago
Jan Rutta – He’s kind of a neat story. The defenseman is 27-years-old and has never played professionally in North America, but it looks like he’s actually won a spot with the Chicago Blackhawks out of training camp. He had eight goals and 32 points in 46 Czech league games last season.
Michal Rozsival – Not much of an update, but more of a no news probably is bad news scenario. He didn’t pass his training camp physical (upper body) and his status remains unchanged, so he’ll probably start the season on the injured reserve.
Colorado
A.J. Greer – Will probably start the season on the injured reserve list due to a concussion. The good news is that he’s started skating on his own.
Joe Colborne – He might not be available for the start of the season either due to his back injury. Colborne also didn’t play in any preseason games. It’s not clear if he’ll be with the Avalanche once he’s healthy or be sent to the minors.
Jonathan Bernier – Sustained a groin injury on Monday and hasn’t been practicing with the Avalanche as a result.
Columbus
Josh Anderson – He’s still not signed and on Thursday there were reports that he requested a trade (which, it should be noted, Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen has denied).
Detroit
Henrik Zetterberg – He hasn’t played in a preseason game yet because of a neck injury, but he’ll make his debut on Friday. His projected lineamtes are Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar.
Nick Jensen – A thumb injury will keep him out of Detroit’s last two preseason games on Friday and Saturday. It’s not clear if he’ll still be available for the season opener.
Niklas Kronwall – Had been dealing with a back injury, but he got into Thursday’s exhibition game, so it looks like that’s behind him.
Edmonton
Ryan Strome – He had been used on a line with Connor McDavid previously, but for Thursday and Friday’s practice, Strome has instead been centering the third line with Jussi Jokinen and Drake Caggiula. Oilers coach Todd McLellan seems to like Strome as a center, but obviously Strome’s best chance at having a big season would be with McDavid.
Leon Draisaitl – McLellan has already reunited the line of Leon Draisaitl, McDavid, and Patrick Maroon. Earlier in the preseason, Edmonton had been experimenting with separating Draisaitl and McDavid.
Minnesota
Zach Parise – Remains questionable for the season opener. He didn’t participate in Thursday or Friday’s practice though, so that’s not a good sign.
Nashville
Viktor Arvidsson – While Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg are projected to start the season together on the top line, Arvidsson might not end up as part of that trio this time. Kevin Fiala and Scott Hartnell are also in the running for that spot. This could have a meaningful amount of fantasy impact depending on which one of the three ends up on that top line.
New Jersey
Brian Boyle – Has been skating on his own, but he won’t start practicing with the Devils until Wednesday at the earliest. He might still end up playing in the season opener despite that.
Nico Hischier – He scored a goal in each of his four preseason games. While that has to be taken with a grain of salt, what is particularly noteworthy is that Devils coach John Hynes feels Hischier has earned a top-six spot.
NY Rangers
Filip Chytil – Defying the odds, Chytil seems to have secured a roster spot with the Rangers. Not only that, but he might open the season on a line with Rick Nash and Mats Zuccarello.
NY Islanders
John Tavares – Just as an aside, teams have reportedly been told not to bother inquiring about Tavares until January 1 at the earliest. He wasn’t expected to be traded during the preseason or early portion of 2016-17 anyways – if he’s dealt at all – but this news just reinforces that.
Ottawa
Craig Anderson – He’s signed a two-year, $9.5 million extension. Obviously that doesn’t impact things much this season, which means that the Senators now have two veteran goalies signed through 2019-20 in him and Mike Condon.
Colin White – He blocked a shot during a preseason game and underwent wrist surgery as a result. He’ll start the season on the injured reserve list as he’ll be out for six-to-eight weeks.
Erik Karlsson – Was on the ice with the Senators on Friday, albeit while wearing a no-contact jersey. He’s doubtful for the season opener.
Philadelphia
Claude Giroux – The Flyers have continued to experiment with using Giroux as a left winger and Flyers coach Dave Hakstol has been happy with the results. As previously mentioned, if he does shift to the left wing then that would create an opening for Sean Couturier to center a top line that would also include Jakub Voracek.
Pittsburgh
Jake Guentzel – It comes with the standard disclaimer about preseason stats of course, but for what it is worth, Jake Guentzel has three goals and nine points in three preseason games. That’s enough to lead the league in exhibition points.
Patric Hornqvist – Is still dealing with a hand injury. He’s been skating, but not practicing. It’s still possible that he’ll play in the season opener, but Penguins coach Mike Sullivan wants to be cautious with him.
Justin Schultz/Kris Letang – When it comes to which one of the two will play on the top power-play unit, Sullivan talked about it being a fluid process. It could come down to who is better rested at the time or what Sullivan feels is best at that stage of the game.
St. Louis
Robby Fabbri – We already talked about this after I sent you my last update, but of course Fabbri tore his ACL again and will need to have surgery. He’s been ruled out for the playoffs as well as the regular season.
Scottie Upshall – It’s not official yet, but the St. Louis Blues have reportedly signed Upshall, which makes some sense given their injury issues. Upshall played for the Blues in each of the previous two seasons, but after going unsigned over the summer he joined the Canucks’ training camp on a PTO.
Toronto
Patrick Marleau – Maple Leafs coach Mike Babcock has expressed displeasure in the trio of Marleau, Nazem Kadri, and Leo Komarov. Babcock liked how they were doing in the early part of camp, but he feels that group can be way better, quicker, and more diligent. He’s looking for them to develop more chemistry with each other. Perhaps that line will be broken up if Babcock doesn’t see improvements.
]]>