Jonathan Toews – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – WINNIPEG JETS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Tue, 23 Sep 2025 17:11:24 +0000

ST. LOUIS, MO - APRIL 27: Winnipeg Jets leftwing Kyle Connor (81) goes after a loose puck during the Stanley Cup Playoffs round one game four between the Winnipeg Jets and the St. Louis Blues on April 27, 2025, at Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire)

In Scott Arniel’s first season behind the Jets bench as head coach, the team roared to the Presidents’ Trophy, recording a franchise-best 116 points (56-22-4). They took that regular season success into the postseason with high expectations, then needed seven games to dispose of the St. Louis Blues in the first round and got bounced in six games by the Dallas Stars in the second round. The Jets ranked 11th in the league with a 51.1 percent score-and-venue-adjusted Corsi but ranked sixth with 53.2 percent of expected goals. They again had the top goaltender in the league, as Connor Hellebuyck won both the Vezina Trophy as top goaltender and the Hart Trophy as Most Valuable Player. The Jets had the league’s top power play last season, scoring 10.75 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, a massive improvement from the previous season. Their penalty killing was closer to middle of the pack, ranking 14th with 6.95 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play.

What’s Changed?

The Jets lost wingers Nikolaj Ehlers to Carolina and Mason Appleton to Detroit as free agents, but the Jets also lured Jonathan Toews out of exile, so he will be attempting to return to the NHL after missing the past two seasons due to health concerns. Centre Adam Lowry is likely to be sidelined for the first month or two of the season while he recovers from offseason hip surgery. The Jets also signed veteran winger Gustav Nyquist and rounded out their forward depth with Tanner Pearson and Cole Koepke via free agency. On the blueline, continuity is the name of the game as the Jets had eight defencemen play in the playoffs and all eight are returning for the 2025-2026 season. Same goes for in net, where Hellebuyck obviously does the heavy lifting, but Eric Comrie returns in the backup role.

What would success look like?

After winning one round in the playoffs, the Jets remain dissatisfied, as they should. If a team has the horsepower to win the Presidents’ Trophy, expectations have to be at least getting to the Conference Final or even the Stanley Cup Final. The Jets are in a difficult division with strong opponents like the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche, but winning another round in the playoffs is the next step and if they can’t do it, the season will probably end up classified as disappointing.

What could go wrong?

The Jets find out what can go wrong at the worst time and it’s that a team that relies so much on their great starting goaltender has been unable to pick up the slack when he struggles in the postseason. After winning the Presidents’ Trophy last season, expectations will be high for the Jets entering the 2025-2026 season and they have a solid core of players that could deliver another strong season. That will be the expectation. But if Adam Lowry doesn’t return to previous form after hip surgery and if Jonathan Toews can’t get up to speed after missing two seasons and maybe add another injury to a key player and suddenly things could start spinning out of control for the Jets. Also, if Hellebuyck stops being the best (regular season) goaltender in the world, that will make the path to the playoffs more challenging.

Top Breakout Candidate

On a team full of veterans, there are not a lot of openings for young players. Last year’s pick for the Jets’ breakout player was Cole Perfetti, and he jumped from 38 points to 50. If he adds another dozen points this season, could that qualify as a next level breakout? He has the talent and is on the right trajectory to be the next significant scorer on this roster.

FORWARDS

Mark Scheifele

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	35	44	79	0.99

NHL players typically reach their peak in the age 24 to 26 range. Certainly, there can be some variance from player to player but that is usually the sweet spot. Scheifele put up 82 points (32 G, 50 A) during his age 23 season, and then 84 points (38 G, 46 A) during his age 25 season. He beat both of those totals last season, at age 31, when he put up a career-high 87 points (39 G, 48 A) while leading the Jets to the best regular season in franchise history. Since 2016-2017, Scheifele has accumulated 659 points (278 G, 381 A) in 652 games, which ranks 14th in the NHL over that period. As productive as he is, Scheifele has typically not been much of a play driver, especially relative to other No. 1 centers in the leagues. In the past two seasons, he is hovering just over 48 percent in terms of Corsi percentage, Last season, he had the highest rate of shot attempts against and second-highest expected goals against per 60 minutes among Jets players during five-on-five play and yet the Jets have outscored opponents 127-97 during five-on-five play with Scheifele on the ice over the past two seasons. It helps to have Connor Hellebuyck in goal, obviously, but Scheifele also has an on-ice shooting percentage of 10.5 percent the past two seasons, which ranks 48th among the 458 forwards that have played at least 500 five-on-five minutes. Is it sustainable for Scheifele to carry a PDO over 103 for the long haul? The last two seasons are the only two seasons of his career that he’s held percentages that high, so it seems fair to expect some regression in 2025-2026. The good news is that Scheifele is starting from a place of elite productivity, so there is room for regression without his whole statistical world collapsing. It’s reasonable to still expect 35 goals and 75-80 points from Scheifele this season.

Kyle Connor

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	40	52	92	1.12

An electrifying offensive player, Connor tallied a career-high 97 points (41 G, 56 A) last season but is not a reliable two-way player so his defensive performance can offset some of his spectacular offensive production. Last season, Connor had the benefit of high percentages, with an on-ice shooting percentage of 11.1 percent and an on-ice save percentage of .930, giving him a PDO of 104.2, a lofty number that he has not approached in any other season, so it’s difficult to imagine that Connor will have percentages that favorable again this season. Connor is an exciting and fun player to watch because he is creative with the puck, and his quickness puts the defence on its heels consistently. When he is really on his game, he is creating chances both for himself and his linemates and it seems there is little the opposition can do to slow him down. For a defender to shut down Connor, they need to get physical and take away his space. If he has time to generate speed, then he is a whole lot to handle, but if defenders can bump him off stride and make him battle physically, that is a better defensive approach. Connor is typically a candidate for the Lady Byng Trophy but piled up a surprising 25 penalty minutes last season, the second-highest total of his career. It’s unlikely that Connor is going to match his career-best offensive production, but he should remain a very dangerous offensive threat for the Jets. In 2025-2026, Connor should have a shot at 35 goals and 80-plus points.

Gabe Vilardi

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	28	35	63	0.85

Injuries have plagued Vilardi going back to his junior hockey days and prior to last season, his career high for games played in an NHL season was 63. He played 71 games for the Jets last season and had career highs in goals (27), assists (34), and points (61), showing the skill that has always been apparent, but has been hidden by injury-mitigated production. Vilardi scores on an unusually high rate of his shots on goal, 19.5 percent across the past three seasons, so that suggests that some regression should take place, but if he stays healthy and continues to play a big role for the Jets – he played a career-high 18:08 per game last season – then he should still have a shot at producing quality offensive numbers. It doesn’t hurt his offensive output to spend nearly all of his time skating on a line with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, but Vilardi isn’t merely riding coattails; he has the puck skills and the size to fill a complementary role alongside the Jets’ two most dangerous forwards. In 2025-2026, Vilardi should miss some time but, provided that it’s not a serious long-term absence, he should still contribute 25 goals and 55 points.

Cole Perfetti

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
92	25	37	62	0.76

The 10th pick in the 2020 Draft, Perfetti has not had an easy ride in Winnipeg, but his progress has been steady, and he put up a career-high 50 points (18 G, 32 A) last season. Perfetti has had excellent possession numbers for the Jets – a 53.1 percent Corsi and 52.3 percent of expected goals across the past three seasons – but he has played a lot with Vladislav Namestnikov and Nikolaj Ehlers to help drive those numbers and it will be interesting to see if that can continue with Ehlers departing for Carolina as a free agent. Perfetti did enjoy a more consistent role with the Jets last season, averaging more than 15 minutes per game during the regular season and then contributing six points (3 G, 3 A) while averaging more than 16 minutes per game in 13 playoff games. Considering he had dressed for just one playoff game in 2023-2024, this was a clear step forward for Perfetti. He is a smart and skilled player and even if he is not physically dominant, he asserted himself more frequently last season, recording 71 hits in 82 games. If the Jets are going to continue as a contending team, that quest will be made easier if Perfetti continues to develop into a quality offensive threat. He should be expected to deliver 20 goals and 50-plus points this season.

Gustav Nyquist

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	15	23	38	0.49

After erupting for a career-high 75 points (23 G, 52 A) for the Nashville Predators during the 2023-2024 season, Nyquist collapsed last season, managing just 28 points (11 G, 17 A) in 79 games for Nashville and the Minnesota Wild. Nyquist will be 36 when this season starts, so maybe Father Time has just caught up to him, but it’s hard to imagine that his true value is not somewhere between where he has been in the past two seasons. When he’s on his game, Nyquist is a creative player with good vision and sound offensive instincts. He is more frequently considered a secondary scorer and that should be his role in Winnipeg. Nyquist tends to have solid possession numbers which gives him a decent baseline for his game. Last season’s collapse appears to be mostly percentage driven. His own shooting percentage (10.7 percent) was fine, just one percent lower than his career mark, but his on-ice shooting percentage (5.6 percent) was the 11th lowest among the 378 forwards that played at least 500 five-on-five minutes last season, and the ones lower than him weren’t playing top six minutes with expectations that they would provide offence. In 2025-2026, Nyquist should be able to give the Jets some secondary scoring, with 15 goals and 35-40 points a reasonable expectation.

Jonathan Toews

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
71	15	31	46	0.65

One of the more compelling stories in the NHL this season is the return of Captain Serious, the future Hall of Famer who was a standout for so many seasons, winning three Stanley Cups in Chicago, but he has been out of hockey for the past two seasons. Toews apparently feels healthy enough to get back in the game, and he’s going to try it with his hometown team at the age of 37. During his best years, Toews was a premier two-way center, who did not score at an elite level, but he had a span of six consecutive years with the Blackhawks when his Corsi ranged from 56.6 percent to 59.4 percent. In Toews’ last season with the Blackhawks, 2022-2023, he had a 43.6 percent Corsi, and the Blackhawks were outscored 42-20 in just 53 games with him on the ice during five-on-five play. He was struggling with long COVID and Chronic Immune Response Syndrome, and it was entirely understandable that he stepped away from the game. It’s also understandable that, if Toews feels healthier now, he doesn’t want his last NHL season to be like that, so he will get a crack at the Jets’ second-line center job and it’s certainly a worthwhile risk to take. Without knowing just how much health issues have taken from him in recent years, the only way to project Toews in 2025-2026 is cautiously. Presuming that he is healthy enough to play most of the season, at least 70 games, then 15-20 goals and 45 points could be achievable totals.

Nino Niederreiter

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	17	18	35	0.43

A sturdy two-way winger who seems to have found his right spot in the lineup, providing excellent two-way play as a third-line winger, Niederreiter has consistently been an elite possession player. Since 2013-2014, when he was traded to the Minnesota Wild, he has a 54.0 percent Corsi, which ranks 17th among 176 active forwards that have played at least 500 games in that span. In the past three seasons, the Jets have outscored opponents 95-68 with Niederreiter on the ice during five-on-five play. A physically strong winger, Niederreiter wins board battles, and that helps his play driving numbers, but he is also a smart positional player who puts himself in the right spot a lot of the time. He is aggressive when it comes to attacking the opposing goal and he has enough touch that he can go on hot streaks. He had enough of a power play role for the Jets last season to chip in 11 power play points and he hasn’t had more than that since 2018-2019. Niederreiter enhances his value, both for fantasy managers and in his reality with the Jets, with his physical play. He had 152 hits last season, the fourth time in his career that he surpassed 150 hits, and that does give him more statistical appeal. A reliable veteran, Niederreiter should be able to challenge for 20 goals and 35-40 points this season.

Alex Iafallo

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	15	15	30	0.37

A speedy winger who was acquired from Los Angeles as part of the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade, Iafallo has not missed a game in two seasons with the Jets, but he also played just 13:17 per game last season, the lowest average time on ice of his career. Iafallo has been an over-qualified fourth liner at times in Winnipeg and while that has hampered his production, it has made him valuable for the team because he can easily move up the lineup to fill in for injured players. His most common linemate last season was Morgan Barron and the duo controlled 55.1 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play, which is a quality contribution from the lower tier of the depth chart. In Iafallo’s two seasons with Winnipeg, the Jets have outscored opponents 73-44 during five-on-five play, and while he is a solid enough play-driving winger, he has benefitted from exceptional goaltending to put up such a large goal differential. Heading into the 2025-2026 season, it does appear that Iafallo will have a shot to play regularly in Winnipeg’s top nine, and that consistency would help his production. He is a reasonable bet to score 12-15 goals and 35 points, which makes him a useful player, but is not enough to have widespread fantasy appeal.

Vladislav Namestnikov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	10	27	37	0.47

A veteran forward who is like a swiss-army-knife, capable of moving up and down and all around the lineup, Namestnikov can play a sound defensive game as a checking forward and play well enough as a two-way player to fit alongside skilled players on a scoring line. Namestnikov finished last season with 38 points (11 G, 27 A), which is hardly earth-shattering, but it was his highest point total since 2017-2018. What stands out about his career is that, in his years with the Jets and Tampa Bay Lightning – two strong teams with quality forward depth – Namestnikov has been able to consistently push play in the right direction. In Tampa Bay, his Corsi was 52.9 percent over 320 games, and in Winnipeg it has been 52.8 percent in 176 games. A reliable pro, he also benefitted from favorable deployment last season, starting 67.4 percent of his five-on-five shifts in the offensive zone. With Jonathan Toews signing in Winnipeg, Namestnikov is more likely to start the season as the Jets’ third-line center, filling in for an injured Adam Lowry, but there is the possibility that, if the Jets forward lines are healthy that he will land on the fourth line. He’s over-qualified for it, but it’s possible. It’s still reasonable to believe that Namestnikov can chip in 10 goals and 35 points, from a variety of spots in the lineup, this season.

DEFENCE

Josh Morrissey

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	12	48	60	0.74

Although Morrissey’s point production has declined from his career-high 76 in 2022-2023, he still had 62 points (14 G, 48 A) last season and has put up 207 points (40 G, 167 A) across the past three seasons, ranking fourth among NHL defencemen, behind only Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Erik Karlsson. Morrissey is not quite as dynamic offensively as Makar and Hughes, but he is consistently excellent, moving the puck with authority, joining the attack, quarterbacking the power play, and putting pucks on net. In the past three seasons, with Morrissey on the ice during five-on-five situations, the Jets have outscored opponents by 69 goals. In the three seasons before that, they had outscored opponents by two goals, so Morrissey has taken his game to a new level and it’s a big part of the reason why the Jets have had such regular-season success. While Morrissey is a reliable shot blocker, recording more than 100 in each of the past four seasons, his hit rate dropped dramatically last season as he finished with just 49 hits. In 2021-2022, he had 150. It’s understandable if a team’s No. 1 defenceman isn’t taking every hit that is available to him, but that does cut into his fantasy appeal, at least a little. That is nitpicking in the grand scheme of things, as Morrissey has finished fifth, seventh, and fourth in Norris Trophy voting in the past three seasons and any team would like a defenceman of that calibre on the roster. He is 30 years old and should be able to perform at that level again in 2025-2026, so it’s fair to expect 12-15 goals and 65-70 points.

Neal Pionk

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	9	26	35	0.45

Although Pionk has had some ups and downs in his career, the veteran right-shot defenceman stepped up his game in 2024-2025, producing 39 points (10 G, 29 A) and solid possession numbers while playing more than 22 minutes per game for the team with the best record in the NHL. Pionk is a quality puck-moving defenceman with a hard and accurate shot from the point that makes him a strong second option, behind Morrissey, to quarterback the power play. Pionk also plays with some fire to his game, with an aggressive style that belies his 6-foot-0, 190-pound frame. Pionk had 114 hits last season and that was his fewest since his rookie season in 2017-2018, when he had 49 hits in 28 games for the New York Rangers. After three straight seasons with subpar possession stats, Pionk had positive possession stats despite starting 45.1 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone. The Jets outscored opponents 53-37 with Pionk on the ice during five-on-five play, easily the best differential of his career. Some credit is due to his partner, Dylan Samberg, as the duo controlled 57.3 percent of the expected goals share during five-on-five play, and Samberg’s steady play allows Pionk more freedom to attack, and that seems to be when he is at his best. Expect Pionk to challenge double-digit goals again on his way to producing 35 points for the Jets.

Dylan Samberg

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	7	20	27	0.35

When Samberg signed his three-year, $17.25 million contract this summer, it was a commitment from the team to a defenceman that did not have widespread name recognition – “they’re paying $5.75 million per year to who?” – but a little bit of research would show that Samberg has really come into his own in the past couple of seasons. The 6-foot-4 blueliner saw his ice time skyrocket last season, going from 15:38 per game in 2023-2024 to 21:08 per game last season. He didn’t just play more, he thrived in that role, his expected goals percentage of 54.1 percent ranking second among Jets blueliners, behind only Josh Morrissey. In the past two seasons, the Jets have had 2.27 expected goals against per 60 minutes during five-on-five play with Samberg on the ice. Among the 131 defencemen to play at least 2,000 five-on-five minutes the past two seasons, that ranks 16th. Even though he has good size, Samberg is not much of a hitter, recording 56 in 60 games last season, but he did have 120 blocked shots in 60 games, which could hold some value if he is healthy enough to play a full season. Samberg ought to be able to chip in 20-25 points this season while adding 100 hits and 140 blocked shots.

Dylan DeMelo

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	3	18	21	0.26

DeMelo is a player who is a better real-life defenceman than fantasy hockey defenceman because his contributions are not typically in the accumulation of statistics. He did have a career-high 31 points (3 G, 28 A) in 2023-2024 but that dropped to 19 points (3 G, 16 A) last season. One thing that DeMelo has shown since joining the Jets, and even before, is that he can suppress shots and chances against and the result is that in 377 games, the Jets have outscored opponents 284-210 with DeMelo on the ice during five-on-five play. If DeMelo is going to have some kind of fantasy appeal, it’s because he will put his body on the line for his team. He had 112 blocked shots last season, the fourth consecutive season that he has surpassed 100 blocked shots, and he had 137 hits, the fourth straight season in which he had at least 110 hits. While those peripheral statistics can help elevate DeMelo into fantasy relevance in some cases, if he doesn’t produce to a certain level offensively, it’s not likely to make much of a difference. In 2025-2026, DeMelo should contribute 25 points with more than 100 hits and 100 blocked shots, which might put him on the fringes of fantasy relevance, but maybe not.

Goal

Connor Hellebuyck

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
61	36	17	5	6	.919	2.11

There's not much to say about Connor Hellebuyck that hasn't already been said. It feels almost cruel to watch Hellebuyck - who took home the Jennings, Vezina, and Hart trophies last season but no Stanley Cup - put together arguably the best NHL goaltending career since Martin Brodeur without a championship to show for it. But despite the ever-present concerns that his heavy usage will start to show up in the form of statistical regression and technical fatigue, he remains the most important piece of the Winnipeg Jets year after year. He topped the league in games played last season and still managed to come away with the most wins, most shutouts, and best goals against average among league starters. He allowed just two tallies per game over a whopping 63 appearances, winning 47 games - for perspective, Andrei Vasilevskiy won just 38 of his own 63 appearances, racking up eight starts with a sub-.850 save percentage in all situations to Hellebuyck's four.

Of course, the only area where Hellebuyck starts to show the cracks in his armour is in the postseason - and last year was no different, with the star posting an .866 save percentage in his 13 playoff appearances, getting yanked in favour of Eric Comrie three times over the team's lengthy run. Comrie, who made a fun tour of the league before ending up back in Winnipeg years after he first arrived to back up Hellebuyck, had a stellar season as backup both in the regular season and beyond; given how close Winnipeg got to finally giving Hellebuyck his victory, it feels like the Jets should give Comrie more than twenty starts during the year to help rest up their number one.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS – NHL Player Profiles

Corey Sznajder – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 22:28:52 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 24: Chicago Blackhawks Defenceman Seth Jones (4) skates in warm-ups before a Los Angeles Kings game versus the Chicago Blackhawks on March 24, 2022 at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Patrick Kane

Entering the final year of his contract, the talk surrounding Kane is less about his performance and more about where he’s going to be playing by the end of the season. It’s unknown if he wants to stick around for a teardown rebuild and he will be a coveted player if the Hawks make him available. Still one of the league’s stars, Kane is one of a few players who you can bookmark for at least 90 points regardless of his team situation. He has the hands to make impossible plays happen and his passing can change the pace of the game on a dime, halting for a second to freeze the defense and finding a teammate entering the zone with speed seconds later. It papers over some of his concerns away from the puck and makes any line he’s on dangerous. This year is going to be an interesting transition year for him. Kane usually has a sidekick who can read off of him, whether that’s Artemi Panarin or Alex DeBrincat. This year will be a little different with the talent drain in Chicago. Kane has produced with the likes of Artem Anisimov and Nick Schmaltz before, but it’s hard to say if the Hawks even have players of that quality on their roster now. Elite talent always finds a way to produce, but there’s going to be more pressure on just him to carry the load, which doesn’t seem possible given he’s already averaging 22-23 minutes a night. To say this will be a challenging year for him would be an understatement.

Jonathan Toews

It was obvious that Toews wasn’t himself during the first half of the year. It took him until early December to score his first goal and he struggled to make an impact in any area of the game. This wasn’t unexpected after he missed the entire 2021 season, but it was hard to figure out what the “new normal” would be for the Hawks captain. He turned the corner a bit during the second half, not producing the same way he used to but getting back to being a solid play-driver on a line with Brandon Hagel and Dominik Kubalik. Slow starts were a running theme for Toews even before 2020, so last year wasn’t out of the ordinary. What’s a little concerning for the Hawks is that Toews needs a lot more help from his linemates now. He doesn’t carry the puck as often as he used to and is more of a support player than someone driving the bus. Hagel was a great support guy for him for that reason, a worker bee type of winger to help get the puck from Point A to Point B while Toews drove the middle or provided support on breakouts. His production next year could depend on how much the Hawks pair him with Patrick Kane. Even at their age, they still have instant chemistry and Toews will get his points with Kane by his side. It’s been more of an “in case of emergency” thing for the Hawks recently because of the team’s depth, but with so few options and Toews also on an expiring contract, it might become more of a regular fixture.

Max Domi

Three years have gone by and Max Domi has gone from Montreal’s top-line center to just another guy in Columbus. The Jackets struggled to figure out the best way to use the skilled playmaker, not fitting at the top of their lineup and struggling to find chemistry with anyone. He couldn’t play with the same pace he did in Montreal and found himself relegated a third line role on the wing. His great passing chops would appear in spurts, but more off turnovers and plays where he was standing still to find someone going to the net instead of the play-driver he was at his peak. The same can be said for his brief stint with the Hurricanes where he was just a depth player. He had a few nice games and played hard but only had moments where he was a game-breaker for them. With Chicago, he’s getting another chance to show that he can drive his own line and play in the middle. They have some decent speed on the wing to pair him with, so the door is open for him to show teams he still be a difference maker at the NHL level. A fresh start on a new team (and a year where he isn’t recovering from shoulder surgery) could help.

Andreas Athansiou

Speed to burn. That has been Athanasiou’s tagline since he started playing hockey. Putting the rest of his skillset together has been a challenge aside from one 30-goal season in Detroit. His first year with the Kings was a step in the right direction, as he was used up and down the lineup to form “skilled checking lines” with the likes of Blake Lizotte and Gabriel Vilardi, doing a better job of using his linemates instead of trying to fly for a breakaway on every shift. It earned him a spot on the Danault line before injuries kept him from being a key player in the LA lineup. When healthy, Athansiou was on-pace for one of his best NHL seasons from a point-per-game pace (granted with only 28 games played). Still, he was trusted with some good minutes, ending the regular season on a line with Kopitar and Kempe and providing a jolt of “instant offense” to whatever line he was on. Doing this over 82 games will be a challenge, but on a Chicago team in desperate need of skill, he is a welcomed addition.

Tyler Johnson

It’s easy to forget that this is Tyler Johnson’s second year on the Blackhawks because injuries limited him to only 26 games. Between neck surgery and a concussion, the two-time Cup champion never had a chance to begin his career in Chicago. He started to find some traction late in the year on a line with Toews and Kublaik, recording four of his seven points in the month of April when the Hawks put that unit together. The veteran brings a little of everything to the table. He was a great shooter during his prime years in Tampa Bay and has the hockey sense to play off elite linemates, finding soft spots in the defense, giving them a passing option and being the guy who can carry the puck into the zone. The question is how much of that skillset is still intact after so many injuries. He’s only 32 years old, but with over 615 games to his credit, the miles and wear-and-tear on your body starts to add up. Johnson can still move well enough to be a decent support player on a checking line, but it’s tough to say if he can be a dangerous offensive player now. He should have plenty of opportunities to prove this in Chicago this year.

Sam Lafferty

Acquired in a mid-season trade for Alex Nylander, Lafferty filled some of the Hawks needs. He’s a hard-working forechecker and gave the Hawks a small jolt of energy whenever he was out there. The Hawks moved him around the lineup, including giving him time with Kane and DeBrincat and did his job as someone who will play physical with speed and recover pucks. Making plays with the same pace was a challenge, as his point total would indicate, but his lines did a nice job of at least titling the ice. This isn’t a small accomplishment on last year’s Hawks team, as even their good players got caved in from a territorial standpoint. Don’t expect much offense from Lafferty, but a guy like him is needed on a rebuilding team. There are going to be a lot of tough games and the Hawks need some guys who will at least inject some life into the lineup and can play on different lines.

Colin Blackwell

It’s rare for a player to make the NHL in his late 20’s these days, but Colin Blackwell did just that a couple of years ago. Selected by the Kraken in the expansion draft after a 12-goal season with the Rangers, the Harvard grad found a niche as a nice defensive forward on a line with Yanni Gourde and Mason Appleton. He had some scoring upside with the minors and in his brief stint in New York but excelled more with the details of the game after leaving the Rangers (and Panarin’s right wing). He has a jack of all trades type of skillset and was a fixture on Seattle’s aggressive penalty kill, being one of their leaders in shorthanded entries. It was enough to catch the attention of the Toronto Maple Leafs at the trade deadline, who quickly incorporated them as part of their penally kill rotation in the playoffs. The offensive side of the game can be a struggle for Blackwell at times, but his knack for stealing pucks and playing a strong forechecking game make him a great fit on a checking line. This is the role he will likely play in Chicago with some heavy penalty killing duty added in.

Taylor Raddysh

Finally graduating from Syracuse, Raddysh was given every opportunity to succeed in a lower line role with the Lightning. He was a nice player for them and showed that he can play a strong game from the hashmarks down, but he proved to be redundant in their system and he was dealt to Chicago as part of the Brandon Hagel trade. His Hawks career got off to a great start with five goals in his first six games and after that it was tough sailing. Raddysh scored only 4 goals in his last 15 games, two of them coming in the same game, despite getting consistent second line minutes with Jonathan Toews and power play time on top of that. Attempts to make him a goal-scorer who you could setup in the bumper spot didn’t go as smoothly as planned and Raddysh was best utilized as someone who could be the first forward in on the forecheck rather than a scorer. With two years left on his deal, the Hawks have some time to figure out what they have in the former 2^nd round pick. They have plenty of grinders on the roster, so Raddysh developing a scoring touch would help him stick around.

Philipp Kurashev

Kurashev’s highlight reel from his rookie year paints a warped picture of him. He scored some absolutely beautiful goals during the 2021 season and looked like a perfect complementary player for this next chapter of Hawks hockey. Those moments were few and far between, though and Kurashev ended up getting lost in depth forward purgatory by the end of the year. This year was an interesting turn. The goal-scoring touch that he had his rookie year was gone, two of his six goals went off a defender, but there was more of an all-around element to his game. He was more willing to be the first guy into the zone on the forecheck, not trying to split defenders or carry the puck through traffic or force plays that weren’t open. The more direct approach to his game made him a more reliable player away from the puck and helped him find a niche as an energy line type of player with some playmaking upside. A nice player to have for this year, but also a guy who might get lost in the shuffle if there isn’t another level to his game.

DEFENSE

Seth Jones

When Chicago made the trade for Seth Jones and signed him under contract until 2030, the idea was he would be a franchise cornerstone defenseman who could raise the tide of their roster. Instead, they got a defenseman who could log a lot of ice-time, play solid in those minutes but not change the game as much as they hoped. In the vacuum, Jones had a typical season for his standards, and it was a major bounce-back from his final year in Columbus. Some of the warts in his game are still there. He’s a dynamic, explosive skater when the play is moving north and showed that with some of the splash plays he provided on offense. When skating backwards, however, he has trouble containing speed and will misjudge where the puck is going. There aren’t many defensemen who can do both at an elite level, but the Hawks didn’t play with the defensive structure to cover up for Jones’ weakness here. You would see him get caught in the middle while defending entries, unsure if he should protect the middle or chase to the outside. It’s the game you often get stuck in on a team that struggles to control play like the Hawks. The mistakes aren’t always the player’s fault, but they add up overtime. Interim head coach Derek King did a good job of simplifying the games for Jones, but he still carried a heavy burden and only making a major impact on the power play. Jones is stuck in a tough place with a rebuild on the horizon, but he is one of the Hawks go-to guys for now and finding him a partner to replace the departing Calvin de Haan will be a top priority.

Jake McCabe

The longtime Buffalo Sabre set a career high in points with 22 in 75 games, which is a little surprising with how long he has been around. It was a bright spot compared to some of his underlying numbers. McCabe was the victim of Chicago’s volatile defensive system, posting one of the worst Expected Goal Differentials on the team at five-on-five. Part of that is his limited offensive skills and the Hawks exposing some of his weaknesses with defending the rush. He’s a lanky defender with decent puck skills, but not the most agile player in the world and only 12 months removed from knee surgery. He had difficulty turning to retrieve pucks and containing speed, which is concerning for a player who was signed to be more of a steadying presence. Oddly enough, some of his best plays from last year came on at the other side of the rink, showing some decent vision from the left point behind the Hawks top line. Originally signed to play alongside Seth Jones, he could see more time on that pair after spending most of last season in a secondary shutdown role alongside Conor Murphy.

Connor Murphy

Prior to last season, Connor Murphy was the only true shutdown defenseman on the Hawks roster. While mobile, he spent most of his shifts in the defensive zone and was always the one putting out fires there for the Hawks while supplement it with some splash offense off the rush. Last year was another usual season for him, playing on the team’s second pair in a shutdown role with heavy penalty killing duty, but the additions of McCabe, Caleb Jones and Stillman made his skillset a little redundant. He is the most defensively sound member of that group, so his contributions were easy to get lost in the shuffle, although not so much to the Hawks who inked him to a four-year contract. It’s tough to say if Murphy will be relied on for more offense this year. He skates well and has a sneaky good wrist shot when he jumps in, but those moments are becoming once every month now instead of once every few games. It’s less about the willingness to do it and more that he burns so much energy blocking shots and chasing pucks down while defending that he has to change before even thinking about starting a rush. He is someone who could benefit from stronger play-driving in Chicago, which will be tough with the current state of their roster.

Caleb Jones

The younger brother of Seth, it took some time for the Hawks to work Caleb Jones into their lineup, missing the first month of the season with a wrist injury. He was in-and-out of the lineup for most of the season, caught in the middle of not being a trusted veteran and being too “old” to be considered a prospect. Jones had some skills the Hawks needed, as he’s very good at using his stick to disrupt entries and is a good enough skater to keep forwards to the outside. His passing was also a welcome addition to their backend which lacked puck skills, as he provided a nice safety valve for Murphy or McCabe when he got in the lineup. The caveat is that he played a sheltered role for most of the year, exiting the zone on more regroups and controlled plays than beating forechecks. Jones became more of a fixture on the second pair later in the season and is an interesting piece for the Hawks heading into next year. He doesn’t have the reputation as an impact player yet but could be someone Chicago gives more responsibility to with a real lack of mobility on their blue line and a spot on the second power play unit up for grabs.

GOALTENDING

Petr Mrazek

It’s been an up-and-down career for Petr Mrazek, and it’s hard to get overly excited about his latest stop on the league tour. He’ll be presumably taking the reins in Chicago, where a disastrous handful of seasons has left the club – so recently considered a dynasty – sitting at the bottom of the NHL’s standings with little hope of an upward path. That’s a tough fit to consider for the now 30-year-old Mrazek, who most recently struggled behind the ever-mercurial Toronto Maple Leafs.

Mrazek’s game at its best is one characterized by quick, nimble skatework and a willingness to put in the extra legwork to get to those hard-to-reach shots. But when he struggles, Mrazek’s speed can give him an almost sloppy appearance; a lack of crisp positioning leaves leaky gaps in his pads and around his hands that allows pucks to sneak by even when he gets himself into what seems like the perfect position on time. And while he showcased his best work in Carolina, staying on his toes and anticipating defensive breakdowns in time to save the day for the Hurricanes more often than not, he offered Toronto some of his most inconsistent performances in recent memory. Now, he’ll be expected to serve as a stopgap for the clearly-rebuilding Blackhawks; he’s at a point in his career where it’s nearly impossible to see him outlasting their tank efforts. The bright side for him, though, is that it’s hard to see Chicago having much use for him if he does right the ship – and there are a handful of contending teams who don’t have a lot of security in net for the coming year. So, if he sheds the inconsistencies and tightens up the gaps in his pads to kick off the 2022-23 campaign, he could buy himself a one-way ticket to fill a need in net for a playoff franchise midway through the year. The only real question mark? His health – given his propensity for injuries and the lack of much in the way of relief waiting in the wings, it’s a little unsettling trying to predict just what Chicago is going to roll out in net over the course of the year. Ultimately, though, Mrazek is a much better bet for game starts than his tandem partner Alex Stalock – so when it comes to workload, he should at the very least get himself a nice amount of volume.

Projected starts: 60-65

Alex Stalock

If you find yourself surprised that Alex Stalock is still in the NHL for the upcoming season, you aren’t alone – but he’s in for a doozy of a season, set to play a role in Chicago similar to the one Craig Anderson is playing in Buffalo. Fresh off the celebration of his 35th birthday, Stalock arrives in Chicago with just one NHL game to his name in the last two seasons combined.

The Blackhawks are shamelessly throwing their season to the wolves in hopes of building back up from the bottom in the next few seasons, so it’s unlikely they’re worried about Stalock being rusty and costing them wins. But on the bright side, despondent Chicago fans dreading the upcoming season should at the very least enjoy what Stalock has to offer from an entertainment perspective this year – and he’s a genuinely respected presence in the locker room, so there’s little worry that he’ll drag the team down from a morale perspective. He’s one of the most fun goaltenders the modern game has to offer, to boot; with a passion for cutting down angles and challenging shooters, Stalock is practically a living meme. He doesn’t exactly thrive in any one area of his game, but a remarkable level of self-confidence and a near-bottomless bag of tricks he’s willing to pull from leave Stalock operating from a position of strength as he continually keeps shooters guessing. As far as stopgaps go for a club looking to overhaul their lineup, there are few that offer the same entertainment value and feel-good vibes that Stalock does – even if he may not have the kinds of numbers most would associate with free agent acquisitions. And for a team that seems determined to lose a lot, he’s a reasonable bet not to break the tank.

Projected starts: 30-35

Blackhawk Down – Chicago Blackhawks 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:21:33 +0000

REVIEW/STATE OF PLAY - Chicago finished out of the playoffs for the first time ten seasons and only three seasons removed from the Stanley Cup in 2014-15, one of three in that decade. One season ago they registered 109 points, falling 33 point to 76 points this year. Prior to the collapse they had been knocked out in the first round of the playoffs in the prior two seasons. One would assume last season had unusual circumstances for a perennial cup contender to fall so precipitously. There were some factors, including an injury in net, but there seems a consensus their championship window has closed. Taking a closer look at the season and core group, it is true age is not on their side, but they may be underrated going into the season.

Jonathan Toews

FAILED EXPERIMENT -This is a team built around Jonathan Toews (30-years-old) and Patrick Kane (29-years-old), both signed for five years at an identical $10.5 million AAV a season. Likewise, on defense they are tied to 33-year-old Brent Seabrook ($6.875 million AAV – six years) and 35-year-old Duncan Keith ($5.53 million AAV – five years). All four have a no movement clause. They are joined by 33-year-old goaltender Corey Crawford ($6.0 million AAV – two years).

They are committed to this group and in a win-now mode for the foreseeable future. The Panarin/Saad trade at the start of last season was a product of that thinking. It was an attempt to reunite one of the strongest possession duos in the NHL with Toews from 2012-13 to 2014-15 and two cups in those four years. It was a disappointment as Saad struggled scoring only 35 points. Patrick Kane saw his production drop to less than a point a game for the first time in seven seasons missing the magical chemistry he owned with Artemi Panarin - who outscored him in Columbus.

While a disappointing experiment both Saad and Toews were still strong in possession numbers ranking 17^th (Toews 56.1% CF) and 22^nd (Saad 55.8 CF%) and were snake bitten by their scoring percentages. Saad posted a 7.6% rate down from his career rate of 10.9%. He had averaged 12 percent over the previous four seasons. He will only turn 26-years-old this season and should be counted on for a turn around. Toews shot at 9.5 percent down almost 50 percent from his career average of 14.1%.

TINKERING AROUND THE EDGES – Bowman’s off-season work has been to add depth at each of the positions. At forward he traded prospects for a veteran, Marcus Kruger, from their cup wins. He had a season to forget in 2017-18, apparently playing through a sports hernia. He and the also acquired 38-year-old veteran Chris Kunitz who will join Kruger in stabilizing the fourth line.

On defense he added 28-year-old Brandon Manning through free agency to the ninth worst defense group in the NHL, with the ninth worse save percentage. He fills in the top four which include steady Connor Murphy who struggled early in his first season with the Hawks but found his game by seasons end. Depth beyond the top four is suspect and without bounce back seasons from the aging Keith and Seabrook it will have its challenges. Keith is probably the best candidate as another Hawk who was snake bit with shooting percentage (1.1% versus career 4.4%) after having scored at a 0.66 points per game pace in the previous four seasons – a 54-point 82-game pace.

CRAWFORD LOSS DEVASTATING - Goaltending was the difference last season, Crawford was lost to an injury after appearing in 28 games with a 0.929 SV%, 2.27 GAA and a playoff worthy 16-9-2 record. He was replaced by 25-year-old Anton Forsberg who was overwhelmed in his first NHL season with a 10-16-4 record with a 0.908 SV% and 2.97 goals against average. Bowman added another veteran in Cam Ward for one season at $3.0 million. Crawford is not expected to be at 100% by training camp. Ward can play a decent amount of games having appeared in 43 last year and over 50 each of the previous three seasons in Carolina, but has posted consecutive save percentages of 0.906, 0.905 and 0.909 and represents a short-term solution.

The season was not all bleak news with encouraging performances from rookie Alex DeBrincat and sophomore Nick Schmaltz. They finished second and third in scoring respectively. DeBrincat led the team with 28 goals (third in rookie goal scoring). Schmaltz centered Patrick Kane on the second line much of the season giving the team two balanced lines up top. The provide much needed oxygen to a team with tight cap restriction with both on entry level contracts. There is much hope that Dylan Sikura can take on a similar role in the top six as a rookie after lighting it up in the NCAA. It is a lot to ask of a rookie, but barring trades the Hawks will need to draw on a prospect pool that suffered from the many years of winning.

Outlook - As many players that had poor season last year, they are all due to make a bounce back. If they can get a return to form and continued input from the youngsters, they can challenge for a playoff spot and will likely be under the radar this season.

NHL Playoff Preview: St. Louis Blues (2) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (3)

Daniel Friedman and Robert Howard — Fri, 15 Apr 2016 16:19:45 +0000

Summary: Every year, the Blues are a tempting pick to go on a Cup run and every year, they are a letdown. A fact they are very aware of themselves.

Still, that's not the reason for picking against them this time. This has to do with the fact that Chicago is simply the better hockey team.

The two are pretty even in most categories, but the Hawks have more firepower on offense, which is what gives them a very slight edge here. It will be a shame as a very good team with champion potential will be eliminated.

PREDICTION: Blackhawks in 7

First Game Update: St. Louis takes a 1-0 lead on a re-directed overtime goal by David Backes, and a 35-save performance by Brian Elliott. The Hawks outshot the Blues 35 to 18, including seven to two in overtime. St. Louis out hit the Hawks 41 to 24, as they have all season in head to head matchups (167 to 102), setting the tone for a grueling series of two very good teams.

Key Injuries: Duncan Keith (game 1 – suspension – back for game 2),

Critical Factors: St. Louis is healthy going into the playoffs, something that has been a problem in the past. Chicago is not the same team as a year ago, as the CF% decline (see Notes below) attests, after another remodel due to salary cap issues. The loss of experience in Johnny Oduya and Patrick Sharp were addressed with aggressive deadline acquisitions Andrew Ladd, Dale Weise and Thomas Fleishmann. There was not a noticeable improvement in possession after the deadline, however. Oduya’s loss has not been addressed on the back end. They have replaced it with a high octane scoring line with the emergence of Artemi Panarin, helping Patrick Kane to win the scoring title. Brian Elliott has been excellent this season finishing second behind Ben Bishop with a 2.07 GAA, and leading the league in save percentage 0.934 SV% (more than 20 games) – matching his regular season, and putting past playoff demons behind him, could make the difference in a tight series. Corey Crawford was enjoying an excellent season as well, before getting hurt and missing a month, with a 0.924 SV%, and 2.36 GAA setting up a potential goaltenders duel if he is 100%.

Season Matchup: STL 3-2-0 Possession gave a slight edge to STL (222 CF (53%) vs. 191 CF (47%)) in the five head-to-head games this season (war-on-ice.com).

Potential Breakout Players: Colton Pareyko will be interesting to watch in his first playoff, he posted 33 points in his rookie season, even if he has been quiet as of late. His size will be welcome as the Western Conference can be a physical grind. He posted an exceptional 4.09 CF%Rel. Kevin Shattenkirk thrives on the power play and Chicago is vulnerable if they take too many penalties. Andrew Ladd returns to his previous team, and fills a big hole on the top LW, and will come up big alongside Jonathan Toews when it counts. Paul Stastny has played much better in his second season and could be unheralded surprise on the second line, posting 0.88 points per game since the All Star break (30-5-21-26).

Key Stats:

CF% 5v5 (war-on-ice.com): STL 51.9% (6^th) CHI 50.7% (15^th)

PDO (war-on-ice.com): STL 100.3 (12^th) CHI 99.5 (22^nd)

Power Play (NHL.com): STL 21.5% (6^th) CHI 22.6% (2^nd)

Penalty Kill (NHL.com): STL 85.1% (3^rd) CHI 80.3% (22^nd)

Goals For per-game (NHL.com): STL 2.67 (15^th) CHI 2.85 (6^th)

Goals Against per-game (NHL.com): STL 2.40 (4th), CHI 2.52 (1oth)

Notes: Chicago has not had much ‘puck luck’ compared to St. Louis due to a 6.7 OSh% - 4^th worst in the league. The Hawks dropping to 15^th in 5v5 CF% after finishing 3^rd last season, 2^nd in 13-14, and 1^st in 12-13, representing a significant development. They and LA have largely owned the top two possession spots for the prior three season, with demonstrable results. The 2^nd ranked power play vs. the 3^rd ranked penalty kill promises to be an interesting match up. Chicago at 22^nd on the penalty kill is over-matched by the 6^th best power play.

2015 NHL Playoffs: Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators

McKeen's Hockey — Wed, 15 Apr 2015 15:39:56 +0000

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators

The Chicago Blackhawks should be the odds on favorite to win their third Cup in five years with the monumental news that Patrick Kane has medical clearance to play in the first game of round one. The Hawks have the pedigree and confidence to go all the way, but they have played a lot of hockey in the past five seasons and you have to worry if they have enough as in the tank to go all the way. The real wild card for the Hawks has to be Kane and if his shoulder will allow him to play at his best. Often when an All-Star player returns from injury there is a bit of an exhale from the rest of the team, if either is the case it may be enough to tip the scale towards Nashville as the Hawks will have their hands full in the first round. Chicago is far from a one trick pony with Patrick Kane as we all know. He is Robin to Jonathan Toews Batman and the dynamic duo has a super supporting cast upfront with Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Brandon Saad, Antoine Vermette and Brad Richards. The blue line is another strength anchored by the Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook pair with Kimmo Timonen, Johnny Oduya, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Michal Rozsival forming arguably the best defence in the Western Conference if not the NHL. Corey Crawford has proven over and over that he is a legit starting goalie and provides confidence and stability in the crease as well. With the Hawks cap situation in the immediate future a cause for concern the players and management know that the window of opportunity is as wide as it can get with this roster and the Hawks should be hungry for that third Championship that would cement their legacy as a cap era dynasty.

The Nashville Predators are the first and possibly most formidable obstacle in Chicago’s path to a dynasty. The Preds were world beaters early on in the season led by their star goalie Pekka Rinne who was an early favorite for a Vezina Trophy. What the Preds lack in super-star forwards they make up for in goal and on defense. The team is led by Shea Weber who is one of the best defenseman in the world and is supported by Roman Josi, Seth Jones, Matias Ekholm Ryan Ellis, Cody Franson and Anton Volchenkov. They say you can never have enough D in the playoffs but the Preds depth on the blue line is very impressive. The offence is a score by committee group and will lean heavily on rookie sensation Filip Forsberg. While there is no elite scorer, there are plenty of legitimate offensive options in Mike Ribeiro, James Neal, Mike Fisher, and Craig Smith while players like Paul Gaustad, Calle Jarnkrok, Colin Wilson and Mike Santorelli provide excellent depth. It has been said that to win a Championship in the NHL you need an elite goalie and a stud defenseman or two. Well the Preds check both those boxes and their 2.77 goals per game offense is not too concerning to think they do not have a very good chance to usurp the Hawks as top contender in the West. This series should be hotly contested, very physical, very close and very entertaining!

Top Ten Nashville Predators

Filip Forsberg – Potential rookie of the year breakout performance will be relied on to score some big goals
Mike Ribeiro – A reclamation project paying dividends, has never been a playoff performer but has he finally figured it all out?
Shea Weber – The most important skater both offensively and defensively will attempt to lead this team out of the first round for the first time
James Neal – Was the “real deal” in Pittsburgh, can he recapture that offense without Malkin and Crosby?
Mike Fisher – Solid two-way player brings consistency in regular season and post season.
Craig Smith – Streaky scorer has led the Preds in scoring, can he find consistency in the playoffs?
Roman Josi – Swiss defender had a 50 point season, has to prove he can be a factor in the playoffs
Colin Wilson – Former seventh overall pick scored a 20-20 season, but can he do it in the playoffs?
Ryan Ellis – Former standout for Canada at World Juniors will be counted on for Power play production.
Seth Jones – the 18 year old rookie had 27 points and was a plus-3. He will only get better.

Top Ten Chicago Blackhawks

Patrick Kane – Getting Kane and his 0.98 career playoff PPG offense back for game one is huge.
Jonathan Toews – A proven winner who just keeps finding ways to get the job done.
Marian Hossa – The Hoss is one of the best two way forwards in the NHL and has incredible playoff experience.
Brandon Saad – Hossa lite is proving to be just as effective in the post season as he is in the regular season
Patrick Sharp – Showed signs during the season he may be slowing down, but is still a great fantasy option
Duncan Keith – Has Conn Smythe type impact for the Hawks
Brent Seabrook – plays in Keith’s shadow but is every bit as valuable and important to the Hawks
Antoine Vermette – Trade deadline acquisition dominates in faceoffs which will help with puck possession
Brad Richards – Playoff warrior was playoff MVP during Tampa Bays Cup win, still has enough game to be effective on the third line
Kimmo Timonen – 40 year old is looking for his first Cup, brings a win it for the Gipper mentality

Fantasy Hockey Mailbag — Merry Christmas!

Scott Wheeler — Mon, 22 Dec 2014 22:41:50 +0000

With just a few days to go until Christmas arrives, fantasy hockey questions are still pouring in from all over the place. Again, every week we take your questions and the goal is to never back down no matter how challenging the inquiry may be. No one likes to be the bearer of bad news but sometimes that is just how it is.

This week we have a couple more of these fantasy questions that test our minds. If you are ready then I am as well. Let's go for gold here!

Fantasy Hockey Mailbag

Okay so I am able to keep six keepers but I need to package a deal for an elite goaltender. My keepers are Perry, Schneider, Eberle, Yandle, Duchene, MacKinnon, Hedman, Subban, Toews, and Kopitar. Just what do I do on both accounts? -- Craig Belanger

These are fun questions though most would view them as tough or difficult. The attempt to try and distinguish can be maddening but it can also be a satisfying experience. Why? Decisions like this eat up too much of your time in fantasy hockey. I see it every single day and you can tell when it is really grinding someone's gears.

When you look at the choices here, it actually reads like a who's who of top ten or twenty players or so. That may be a slight exaggeration but these are all top players at their respective positions (at least top ten or 15). When you realistically look at all these players, the across the board numbers just make it tougher and tougher.

However, there are clear cut choices that can be made. One assertion is that Cory Schneider is not an elite goaltender right now because of the mess of a team he plays on currently. New Jersey is not going anywhere and the train could ride off the rails even further. Someone might try to take him in a sell low scenario though. Package him with the right players and maybe you can strike top five goaltender gold.

Could you package a Schneider with Hedman to get a top goalie? Yes you might. However, you may have to sweeten the pot with a Perry to do it. These trades take skill and no doubt you will regret giving someone up. In the long run, a fantasy hockey GM has to think longer term. I might also package Kopitar, Yandle, and Eberle for a top tiered netminder also.

My six keepers would be Perry, Subban, Hedman, Kopitar, Duchene, and MacKinnon. Good luck! Hey we have time for that second question.

-------------------------------------------------

So Calvin Pickard has been having an amazing week, what do you do with him now?

He is a good goalie and I do not doubt that. However, seeing these numbers come in and the frequent 30+ save totals combined with the workload do worry me a bit. His "Goalie DNA" says he can handle it but Colorado has little margin for error. Semyon Varlamov is bound to come back eventually and take back his job anyway. With a window that is closing by the day, an owner has a chance to get something for Pickard he never ever expected to. Think of how often a waiver pick can be turned into an asset. It does not happen very often.

You can keep playing him until Varlamov returns and then go digging into the waiver wire to try and get lucky again or maybe you trade him for another player now. There are enough fantasy hockey general managers out there dying for a quick fix and they will PAY for it! As the saying goes, aim high first and then come down in price. Remember to do this fast because other owners will pick up on this strategy and fast!

------------------------------------------------

Good luck everyone and thanks for reading. Merry Christmas and see you next week!

Maple Leafs, Blackhawks share an Umbrella

Gus Katsaros — Tue, 28 Oct 2014 04:55:44 +0000

A SHARED UMBRELLA

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

If there was one thing that could be salvaged from the Toronto Maple Leafs versus the Boston Bruins on Saturday October 25 it was witnessing a different powerplay setup than the usual 1-3-1 that has taken the NHL by storm.

Here’s the play I’m referring to from early in the first period.

Leafs PP Umbrella 1025

Toronto initially sets up the 1-3-1 with Dion Phaneuf at the point, Phil Kessel parked on the left side, Cody Franson on the right. Tyler Bozak mans the slot and James van Riemsdyk plays the slot man.

As the play continues, around the 20 second mark, Bozak curls at the top of the zone and instead of taking position at center, skates right to the strong side goal line.

The umbrella set up key is to ensure having a skater on the strong side as an option for the winger to go down if there’s no option at the point.

Phaneuf is at the top of the zone, the spot signifying the importance of defensemen to have the ability to walk the line and launching pucks to the front of the net. Slap shots are nice and all, but getting pucks in front of the goal with two players in front offers rebound pressure and distinct skill. Shooting into the defending forwards legs will only mean a shorthanded situation the other way, an undesirable result.

Walk the line, defensemen, walk the line.

Wondering if this was only the Leafs first line? Nope, here’s Nazem Kadri, Joffrey Lupul and David Clarkson (yeah, Clarkson – and he’s going to the net too!) in the same set up.

Lupul sneaks down to the goal line with Clarkson, while Kadri and Jake Gardiner station on the wings, with Morgan Rielly along the blueline. The amount of space opened in the middle of the ice is shown very nicely here with some potential for passing lanes or clear shots to the net.

A clear takeaway from both set ups for the Leafs, is the first unit with two right hand shots along the wing (Kessel and Franson), while Jake Gardiner and Nazem Kadri as left handers man the second unit boards.

Chicago Blackhawks

The Western Conference finalist Blackhawks showed the same formation. Checking in on the game in St. Louis on Saturday night, this was the Blackhawks power play.

Chicago sets an excellent example of player rotation during the man-advantage as well while Jonathan Toews shows the strong side support skating right through the crease to become an option down low.

The crossover occurs with the pass down to Toews who slides up the half boards, while Patrick Sharp rotates to the top of the zone, while Patrick Kane darts from the left side, down to the right, beside the net – the space Toews vacated.

Kane gets the puck back along the goal line and moves up the boards like captain Toews did only moments ago, and they both rotate positions.

Both the Leafs and Chicago are using an umbrella, with the Leafs still learning to implement the setup and they look sloppy adopting changes in power play philosophy.

Chicago meanwhile seem to have smoothed out the set up and seem to look more naturally, controlling the puck and rotating in the offensive zone. Here’s the game versus Ottawa the following day back at home.

There’s a perfect image of the umbrella in this game.

BUFFALO SABRES

So what does this mean? Are they the only teams using this setup?

Watch the Leafs opponent tonight, in this snippet here and see how the slot man backs up down to the goal line as the puck gets to the point.

**********

Follow the McKeen's team on Twitter:

@mckeenshockey
@KatsHockey

TOEWS THAT BIND

McKeen's Hockey — Sat, 16 Aug 2014 23:03:29 +0000

Chicago is one of the NHLs elite franchises where anything short of a Stanley Cup is a disappointment. The Hawks enjoyed another great season finishing with 107 points in the highly competitive Central Division, but were not successful in defending their Championship. Loaded with star players and keeper fantasy players like Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford expect the Hawks to remain an elite team for the immediate future.

The Hawks are a consistently-winning team with two Cups in the last five years but every off season the salary cap forces them into difficult roster decisions. Previous cap casualties include players such as Dustin Byfuglien, Dave Bolland, and Michael Frolik. This summer the Hawks resigned their two superstar players Toews and Kane to a staggering 10 year $84 million extension each. While those players are worth both the dollar and term it forces the Hawks to be over the cap and in the position to have to trade another player or two to become cap compliant.

It is unlikely the Hawks move a key player such as Keith Seabrook, Marian Hossa or Patrick Sharp as they are too valuable at the moment. Players such as Kris Versteeg, Johnny Oduya or Nick Leddy would be preferable solutions.

Despite constant off season purging of roster players, the Hawks manage to stay competitive because of their prospect pipeline which currently has players like Teuvo Teravainen, Ryan Hartman and Adam Clendening in the wings. The Hawks have also added College free agents Matt Carey and Trevor Van Riemsdyk to the fold.

With the core intact, expect the Hawks to contend for a third Championship and to again be a fantasy rich destination.

We have posted player profiles of the following Blackhawks: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Brandon Saad, Brad Richards, Andrew Shaw, Bryan Bickell, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Nick Leddy, Corey Crawford

Fantasy value of faceoffs

Peter Harling — Wed, 12 Feb 2014 14:03:32 +0000

Fantasy hockey leagues these days are tracking more and more stats with sites like fantrax offering the ability to cover more than just goals and assists. It is now common to have leagues include peripheral stats such as hits, shots, blocked shots, and even shoot out goals. However, very few fantasy leagues track face-off stats. So why include them in the November Roto report?

Winning your pool is accomplished by identifying value. I am not talking about what players are forecast to score the most. I mean what players offer the best value.

What does this have to do with face-offs?

Nothing specifically, but face-offs are an important factor in a hockey game. Players who win draws with consistency are relied on by the coach and will see more ice time and play in key situations. Players who have a winning percentage have tremendous value in the NHL and that value carries over into fantasy hockey.

Offense only players when not scoring will receive reduced ice time whereas all-around players when not scoring continue to see a regular shift. Players that win face-offs regularly will be used regardless if they can score or are on a hot streak.

Here is a review on some of the best at face-offs in the NHL and what it means to their fantasy value.

Jonathan Toews and Vladimir Sobotka dominate in the faceoff circle.

Vladimir Sobotka- Sobotka is currently leading the NHL in FO% at an impressive 60.9% The St. Louis Blues are a very deep team with plenty of good forwards. Heading into this season, most forecasted Sobotka to be a fringe player, playing on the fourth line. His prowess on the faceoff is part of the reason why he has forced Coach Ken Hitchcock to play him more than that. As a result, he is on pace for a 40 point season and averaging 16:31 minutes of ice time per game. He would have been available in late rounds or as a waiver wire or free agent claim earlier in the season. That is good value.

Jonathan Toews- He is a perfect example of value. Toews has shown he has a scoring touch but is also very responsible defensively, has tremendous hockey smarts, is an excellent skater and plays a physical game. Toews soaks up ice time in every situation and often is on the right side of the puck due to his proficiency in the face-off dot.

Pavel Datsyuk- Another example of an elite two-way player who is more than just goals and assists. Datsyuk is also off to a slightly slow start and is currently on pace for 60 points. But with a face-off rate of 59.3% Datsyuk leads the team in all face-off situations and wins. With all the ice time he receives and his history of two-way play and consistency count on Datsyuk to finish the year at a point per game.

Jason Spezza- This season Spezza is transforming from a one dimensional offense only player into a more complete all-around player. Now in a leadership role for the team he is excelling. Gone are the drop pass turnovers. Part of Spezza’s game that has evolved is his face off proficiency. Spezza currently is eighth in the league in face-offs won at 571. This tells you that if he is scoring or not, he will be getting prime ice time.

“It’s just something I try to (take) pride in,” said Spezza.
“I want to be out there taking big faceoffs. It’s something I’ve worked on quite a bit in the last three years and I feel it’s something that I’ve been able to get a lot better at.”
“When I came here, I don’t think I was as good. It’s one of those things where if you work at them, you can get better at them. I’ve put a lot of time in trying to work on them.”

Patrice Bergeron- Second overall in the NHL with a 59.7% in faceoff wins and leading the league with 739 wins Bergeron is a key member of the Boston Bruins. He is on the ice for seemingly every critical draw in either zone. His prowess on faceoffs was evident in the post season

Face-offs are a key element in special teams. Having immediate possession in the offensive zone to start the power play is critical. Losing the draw can often use up 20-30 seconds before the team with the advantage can gain possession in the offensive zone.

While face-off stats may not directly contribute to your fantasy teams points, they do have a significant impact on a player’s value. It is clear that players who have a winning record in the face-off dot are leaned on by head coaches. Those players see increased and regular ice time. Being proficient at winning face-offs is a key element in being a complete player and will ensure quality ice time regardless of whether or not that player is consistently scoring. That makes a player have value to his NHL team, and to your fantasy team.

NHL: Top 30 Scorers Fenwick/Corsi by Game

Gus Katsaros — Fri, 22 Mar 2013 21:44:28 +0000

It’s been written that a picture is worth 1000 words.

If that’s true, then this is going to be a 30,000 word blog post .. if there ever was one. This is actually going to be around 30,500, but hey, who’s counting.

Before presenting the following, a little explanation is in order.

The hockey world (fuelled by bloggers and math nerdlingers) is breaking new ground with the ability to analyze players and using technology to better capture the nuances missed in game to game situations.

Websites like Gabe Desjardins Behind the Net and David Johnson Hockey Analysis have become valuable resources to decipher the numbers and put meaning to the way player’s performance is analyzed.

Two of the measures act as a proxy for a team’s possession of the puck, providing estimates of player’s time with the puck. A good primer for advanced stats is here (and I will delve more into using analytics in this space here on McKeen’s)

Corsi (a stat named after Buffalo Sabres goaltending coach Jim Corsi) is a ratio measuring shots on goal, blocked shots and missed shots fired at the opposition net, over the same criteria fired upon the players own net. JP at Japers Rink has a good introduction to the statistic and Broad Street Hockey advances the discussion with a comprehensive look at Advanced stats over a series of posts.

The logic dictates that the team that has greater possession of the puck will likely be firing upon the opposition’s goal rather than a player’s own goal is a signal to indicate that team has puck possession.

Fenwick is a similar measure, however it removes the blocked shots, while still providing a ratio of shots on goal and missed shots. The measure is defined here from Raw Charge – a Tampa Bay Lightning blog on SB Nation:

Fenwick: Measure of shots for and missed shots for as a percentage of all shots taken. Used more for teams than players. Often divided into game situation : Score-tied, 1-up, 1-down, 2-up, 2-down, 3-up, 3-down. This is because teams that are behind tend to shoot more than teams that are ahead, and the further behind they are the more pronounced this "score effect" is. It's so pronounced after falling 3 behind that everything goes out the window and there's no real point in separating it out any further.

Fenwick is also occasionally divided by period, as shooting tendencies change the further into a game one gets.

Fenwick measures tend to be more predictive of win-loss records for a season than Corsi measures, but Corsi is better for short-term analysis of puck possession, as it includes more events and so accounts for outliers (randomness) better. Just remember Fenwick = teams, long-term; Corsi = players and teams, shorter-term.

*********
These measures are more indicative of trends and apply for better use over greater sample sizes, but I was curious to see the game-to-game effects of both Corsi and Fenwick measures.

To do that, I was able to get all the game data from timeonice.com measuring each game’s corsi and fenwick events broken down by each individual components. An example is here, using the Leafs and Sabres game from March 21, 2013

After compiling all the data for each individual game, I was able to put together a game-by-game look at the differences of each measure, by team and then by player.

This is where the 30,000 words come into play. The following is a visual representation of the top-30 scorers in the NHL (as of Mar 22, 2013) based on their individual Corsi and Fenwick measures on a game-to-game basis. Note the numbers across the horizontal axis are the game numbers assigned by the NHL.

Follow the McKeen's team on Twitter:
@KatsHockey
@mckeenshockey