Luke Schenn – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – 4 Nations Wrap – Trade Deadline speculation edition – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 24 Feb 2025 17:20:17 +0000

BOSTON, MA - FEBRUARY 20: Team Canada forward Connor McDavid (97) drills a shot during the Championship game of the 4 Nations Face-Off between Team United States and Team Canada on February 20, 2025, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

I have to give the league credit. I did not go into this season with a lot of confidence or excitement about the 4 Nations Face-Off. Sure, it’s always fun to see best-on-best play, but with the tournament being limited to just four countries and without any pre-existing prestige/history behind the tournament name, I was among those worried that it might end up looking like a series of glorified All-Star games and not attract any non-hockey fans. I couldn’t have been more wrong.

ESPN saw an average viewership of 9.252 million for the Final between Canada and the United States, making it the most-watched non-Olympic hockey game on record in US viewership history. Including Canadians, that rating increased to 16.1 million viewers (6.9 million between Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ and TVA Sports), which was on par for a Game 7 of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final (16.3 million), per Braylon Breeze of Sports Media Watch.

The Final even took a political angle. I won’t stress people looking for an escape with the details, but the current climate between the United States and Canada was an undercurrent throughout this tournament and in the Final especially, only adding to the enthusiasm for this match.

When all that noise ended, and the puck dropped, the players didn’t disappoint. This was not a glorified All-Star Game. The players took the opportunity to represent their country seriously, and after the United States earned a 3-1 victory over Canada during the round robin, the Canadians got their revenge Thursday in a 3-2 overtime win over the States.

The winning goal was appropriately scored by Connor McDavid, who was left wide open due to a defensive breakdown by the Americans, took advantage of a nice pass from Mitch Marner to fire a wrist shot past Connor Hellebuyck.

Marner getting the primary assist on that marker and Sam Bennett’s game-tying goal at 14:00 of the second period -- the last goal before McDavid found the back of the net -- was a bit of a redemption story for the 27-year-old winger. Marner and McDavid didn’t seem to gel earlier in the tournament, resulting in the duo being separated for Canada’s 5-3 win over Finland on Monday and Marner logging just 12:46 of ice time. Had that been the end of the story, it would have been about Marner vanishing when things got tough, a story that would have added to the frustrations of Maple Leafs fans, who have seen Toronto flounder in the playoffs throughout Marner’s tenure. Instead, he added another chapter to the tale.

It was also a great showing for Jordan Binnington. Goaltending was the main question mark for Canada going into this tournament, and while Binnington certainly had some bad moments, in the end, he did step up for Canada, turning side 31 of 33 shots in the Final.

Of course, Nathan MacKinnon was also deserving of his MVP title. He scored a tournament-best four goals, including the overtime winner against Team Sweden and two markers versus Finland. Without MacKinnon’s efforts, Canada might not have made it to the final match. He also got Canada on the board first against Team USA on Thursday with his marker at 4:48 of the first period.

It needs to be acknowledged how well America played in this tournament. Both games between these two countries were intense, and not much would have had to change for Team USA to have emerged as the winner. In particular, Zach Werenski (six assists), Jake Guentzel (three goals, four points) and the Tkachuk brothers were fantastic in this tournament. Connor Hellebuyck also did his part in the 4 Nations Face-Off, largely proving his status as the league’s best goaltender, even if his team finished just shy of the title.

Canada can celebrate today, but they have every reason to be concerned about Team USA going into the Olympics. What a fun tournament that should be.

Boston Bruins

Boston will start next week at home, hosting the Maple Leafs on Tuesday and the Islanders on Thursday. The Bruins will then travel to Pittsburgh on Saturday and Minnesota on Sunday.

It seems unbelievable to even suggest it, but those games might be among Brad Marchand’s last in a Bruins jersey. Boston is 27-24-7, which puts the Bruins a point behind the Senators for the final wild-card spot despite having played in one extra game. To be clear, Boston still very much has a chance of making the playoffs, but the fact that it's now a borderline team is cause for retrospection.

There were tempered expectations for the Bruins going into 2023-24 after losing David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron. The squad managed to prove the rumors of their death were exaggerated with a 47-20-15 showing, but that success was led by elite goaltending, something the Bruins haven’t enjoyed this season. Linus Ullmark is gone and -- perhaps due to the pressures of his new contract, missing training camp or some combination of the two -- has underwhelmed with an 18-18-4 record, 2.98 GAA and .898 save percentage. Couple that with free-agent signing Elias Lindholm putting up mild numbers (11 goals, 30 points) as well as Charlie McAvoy (shoulder) getting hurt in the 4 Nations Face-Off, and it’s looking more and more like this isn’t a squad setup for a playoff run even if it does squeak in.

With all that considered, maybe it really is time to move on from Marchand. He’s 36 and in the final campaign of what’s proven to be an extremely team-friendly eight-year, $49 million deal. He is allowed to submit a list of up to eight teams he’d veto a trade from, so he does have some influence over his situation, but the return the Bruins could potentially get from him would still be significant. There are a lot of teams out there who would be happy to take a former Stanley Cup winner with a reputation for getting under opponents' skin. Especially given that Marchand is still performing at a high level offensively with 20 goals and 45 points through 58 appearances in 2024-25. His cap hit ($6.125 million) is also reasonable enough to make it feasible for most contenders to maneuver him below the ceiling, especially if Boston retains part of what’s left of his salary.

There’s a certain logic to trading Marchand while his value is still high and at the end of that contract, but there’s also a strong argument against it. He’s the Bruins captain and a fan favorite. Trading him away, especially after a summer that didn’t go Boston’s way, would likely result in strong pushback against GM Don Sweeney and president Cam Neely, even if the return is significant. It’d be one thing if Marchand wanted to go for the sake of chasing the Cup, but in his own words, his “goal is to play here forever,” per NBC Sports Boston. True, players will usually speak highly of whoever their current employer is, but in the case of Marchand, who has dedicated his entire NHL career to Boston, it seems reasonable to believe him and assume he wants to re-sign with the team.

Plus, even if he is getting up there in age, Boston might still enjoy another serious run with him. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Jeremy Swayman rebound next season. Hampus Lindholm (lower body) might have better luck on the injury front in 2025-26, which would go a long way towards stabilizing the blue line. The team would still have secondary scoring concerns that would need to be addressed over the summer, but this is far from a franchise that’s without hope in the mid-term.

In the end, I expect Marchand rumors to persist up until the trade deadline but for him to ultimately remain with Boston.

Los Angeles Kings

Los Angeles will open the week by hosting Vegas on Monday followed by Vancouver on Wednesday. The Kings will then hit the road with games in Dallas and St. Louis on Friday and Saturday, respectively.

The Kings hold a 30-17-7 record going, which gives them a decent cushion in the battle for a playoff spot, though they’ll have a difficult time catching up to Edmonton (34-19-4) or Vegas (34-17-6), which would be necessary in order to secure home-ice advantage in the first round.

Still, with the trade deadline approaching, the Kings are likely to be buyers if they do anything. They have all their draft picks over the next three years with the exception of their 2025 second-round selection (surrendered in the Tanner Jeannot trade) and a decent amount of cap flexibility (PuckPedia puts the squad’s deadline space at just under $4.5 million), so there is room here to get something done.

Los Angeles is rumored to be targeting Buffalo’s Alex Tuch, according to Russell Morgan of Hockey Royalty. Even if that doesn’t specifically happen, it does suggest that LA is in the market for a top six winger, which would make some sense.

Los Angeles is fine up the middle. Anze Kopitar is still performing well at 37 (13 goals, 46 points). Neither Phillip Danault (five goals, 230 points) and Quinton Byfield (11 goals, 29 points) has done enough offensively to be an ideal second-line center, but either one is serviceable in the middle six. Besides, with the Pierre-Luc Dubois experiment still fresh in the Kings’ mind, Los Angeles might be reluctant to take another swing at filling that role. Instead, the hope is probably for Byfield to grow into that job and push Danault to the third unit.

The defense looks solid now that Drew Doughty is back from his ankle injury. We haven’t seen much from him offensively yet -- just one assist in six appearances with the Kings and one helper in four outings with Canada -- but he’s averaged 26:57 of ice time with Los Angeles since returning, so he’s helped stabilize the blue line.

In goal, Darcy Kuemper has been a pleasant surprise, providing a 17-6-6 record, 2.22 GAA and .918 save percentage in 30 appearances, firmly putting his 2023-24 showing with Washington -- a 13-14-3 record with a 3.31 GAA and an .890 save percentage in 33 outings -- behind him. Maybe the Kings will seek an alternate to David Rittich, who has a 12-11-1 record, 2.59 GAA and .890 save percentage in 25 appearances, but that seems unlikely.

That mostly just leaves help on the wings, especially from someone who can find the back of the net. Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala are the only Kings players with at least 15 markers -- 25 and 21, respectively -- while 3.7 players per team have hit the 15-goal milestone, so it’s fair to say that’s an area of need for the Kings.

Los Angeles is also an underwhelming 20th in goals per game with 2.83 and has instead relied on its fifth-ranked 2.53 goals allowed per game for its success.

If the Kings do add a top six forward, then Trevor Moore could see his playing time meaningfully diminish. Moore was great in 2023-24 with 31 goals and 57 points in 82 regular-season games, but he’s dropped to eight goals and 23 points in 45 appearances this season, making his average ice time of 17:05 less than ideal. Any addition up front might also push Moore off the power play entirely. As it is, he’s averaging just 1:11 with the man advantage, which has resulted in only one assist for the 29-year-old this season.

Minnesota Wild

The Wild have a full week, starting at home against Detroit on Tuesday before a back-to-back in Utah and Colorado on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The squad will then return to Minnesota to host the Bruins on Sunday.

Minnesota has a strong 34-19-4 record (72 points), but with the Jets’ dominance (39-14-3), finishing first in the Central Division still looks like a longshot. Instead, the Wild are battling with Dallas (37-18-2) and Colorado (33-24-2) for the second and third seeds in the division with the bottom of the three likely entering the playoffs as a wild-card club.

The big question for the Wild is when Kirill Kaprizov (lower body) will be back. When he underwent surgery in late January, we were told that he’d miss a minimum of four weeks, so while a return this week seems unlikely, seeing Kaprizov by mid-March isn’t out of the question. Minnesota deserves credit for managing a 4-2-0 record since Kaprizov was put on the shelf, but that stretch also included back-to-back shutout losses and an underwhelming 2.50 goals per game, so the Wild have shown some vulnerability.

Getting strong performances out of Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi and Mats Zuccarello during Kaprizov’s absence will be critical. Boldy had a poorly timed five-game scoring drought from Jan. 29-Feb. 6, but he bounced back with two goals and three points in the Wild’s final game before the break and held his own during the 4 Nations Face-Off, supplying a goal and three points in four outings with Team USA, so he might hit the ground running for Minnesota when play resumes.

Rossi has two goals and seven points across his past 10 appearances with the Wild, but he’s also been inconsistent during that stretch, going without a point in five of those outings. Meanwhile, Zuccarello hadn’t scored a point in five straight games before the break. Maybe the break -- Zuccarello wasn’t involved in the tournament -- has allowed him to reset and put that slump behind him.

That trio is likely to play together while Kaprizov remains out, though once Kaprizov returns, Boldy might shift off that unit to make room for the Wild’s star forward.

Nashville Predators

Nashville will open the week with a pair of difficult opponents at home, hosting Florida and Winnipeg on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. The Predators will then travel to New York to face the Islanders on Saturday and the Rangers on Sunday.

Nashville showed some hope from Jan. 3-23, winning seven of nine games, but the Predators followed that with a six-game losing streak they couldn’t afford. Nashville now has a 20-29-7 record, putting the team 15 points out of a playoff spot. The team isn’t mathematically eliminated, but there is no longer a realistic path to the postseason for Nashville. To hit 94 points, Nashville would need to go 23-4-1 the rest of the way. That’s simply not happening.

That makes the Predators obvious sellers going into the deadline. Filip Forsberg, Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, Roman Josi and Brady Skjei all have no-movement clauses and significant term left on their contracts, so I wouldn’t expect any kind of blockbuster involving any of them.

Interestingly, Juuse Saros’ new contract, and thus his no-movement clause, doesn’t begin until the 2025-26 campaign, so technically the Predators could trade the goaltender, but I doubt they will. Saros’ eight-year, $61.92 million deal looked good when he inked it, but the 29-year-old has struggled this campaign with an 11-23-6 record, 2.95 GAA and .898 save percentage in 41 appearances prior to the tournament. He had a minus-3.5 goals saved above expected, per Moneypuck, which suggests he’s been below average even after considering the poor play in front of him. Teams might be hesitant to take on that big contract given his recent performance, and Nashville might be equally reluctant to trade him at a time when his value is down.

Still, Nashville should be active at the deadline. Gustav Nyquist, who is playing the final season of his two-year, $6.37 million contract, is likely gone. His 20 points in 55 appearances this campaign is a far cry from his 75-point showing in 2023-24, but the 35-year-old should still be a capable middle-six forward for a contender and, frankly, a move away from the Predators’ struggles should do him some good.

Perhaps Ryan O'Reilly will be moved as well. He’s signed through 2026-27, but his $4.5 million cap hit is fair for the two-way center who has 14 goals, 34 points and a 56.6 faceoff percentage in 53 outings this season. The 34-year-old is a former Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe winner, which is sure to appeal to contenders, and the fact that he’s got term left on his deal means that he would command more than a rental price. He also lacks a no-trade clause, making a potential move that much easier. That said, it really depends on how bad the Predators see their situation. Nashville still has a veteran core, and with so many players locked to NMCs, the franchise is unlikely to embrace a rebuild at this time. If that’s the case, then Nashville might prefer to keep O’Reilly under the belief that the team will bounce back over the next two years. At the least, the Predators likely aren’t motivated sellers when it comes to him, so they would need to be offered a very appealing return.

It'd be much cheaper for teams to pry Luke Schenn from the Predators. He’s in the middle season of a three-year, $8.25 million contract, so he’s not a rental either, but the 35-year-old defenseman is presumably not as big of a part of Nashville’s plans. For a team looking to win now, though, Schenn provides some value. He is a physical force with 41 PIM and 207 hits through 56 outings and would be a solid third-pairing option on a playoff squad. His cap hit might be a touch high for what he brings to the table, but at $2.75 million, it’s workable.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Moving from one seller to another, the Penguins aren’t quite out of the playoff race, but they probably won’t make it. At the least, Pittsburgh needs to be great down the stretch to close the gap, which means the Penguins need a big week. They’ll play in Philadelphia on Tuesday before returning home to host the Flyers, the Bruins and the Maple Leafs on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Sidney Crosby looked great in the 4 Nations Face-Off, contributing a goal and five points across four games for Team Canada. The 37-year-old should be expected to continue to perform for the Penguins down the stretch after supplying 17 goals and 58 points across 55 appearances with Pittsburgh leading up to the tournament. Unfortunately, it’s already well established that the current Penguins can lose even with Crosby keeping up his end of the bargain.

Even if the Penguins are sellers, Crosby is unsurprisingly going nowhere. He has a no-movement clause, and it’s doubtful that either Pittsburgh or Crosby have interest in parting ways. He is the face of the franchise and will likely remain in that position until he hangs up his skates.

The same goes for Evgeni Malkin. The Russian star made his intentions clear in an interview with The Athletic’s Rob Rossi: “I not retire. I know what some people say -- like, I go back to Russia and play for my home team. But I never say it, you know? I retire with Pittsburgh. The Penguins are my team. I love this team. When I retire it’s here.”

So yeah, take him off the list, especially because his no-movement clause gives him final say over his status.

Still, the Penguins are likely to make some moves. Perhaps Matt Grzelcyk, who is playing on a one-year, $2.75 million contract, will be traded. He has a goal and 28 points in 59 appearances while averaging 20:18 of ice time, though he might see his power-play role decline with a new team, which would hurt his fantasy value. He has 10 power-play assists and has logged 2:11 per game with the man advantage this season.

Cody Glass might also be shipped to a team looking for forward depth, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the same happen to Anthony Beauvillier. Neither has term left on his contract, though Glass has one season remaining of RFA eligibility.

If Pittsburgh is in the mood for something bigger, the team could take a hard look at moving Rickard Rakell. He’s having a strong campaign with 25 goals and 49 points in 58 appearances. He’s signed through 2027-28 with a $5 million cap hit, so I don’t think the Penguins will move him, but his trade value is good, so it would be a way to shake things up without touching the core. However, the Penguins aren’t expected to enter a full rebuild until after Crosby retires, so rather than move Rakell for picks or long-term prospects, Pittsburgh would presumably want at least one player who is NHL-ready in any Rakell trade.

St. Louis Blues

The Blues will alternate between home and away games next week. They’ll start by hosting Seattle on Tuesday before playing in Washington on Thursday, returning home to face the Kings on Saturday and finally traveling to Dallas for a clash Sunday.

St. Louis is in a similar position to Pittsburgh. It’d be wrong to say all hope for a playoff berth is lost, but with a 26-26-6 (58 points) record, squeaking into the playoffs seems improbable. Perhaps Jordan Binnington can ride the high of backstopping Team Canada to victory in the 4 Nations Face-Off to lead the Blues on a run after the break. It’s certainly something to keep an eye on because he’s a great netminder when he’s at his best, but the problem is that the 31-year-old can end up all over the place. Not to take away from what he just accomplished, but that inconsistency makes it hard for me to count on him to continue at that high level of performance for a sustained period of time.

If he can’t lead St. Louis on a run in the near term, then the Blues are likely to be another seller at the trade deadline. Radek Faksa, who is in the final season of his five-year, $16.25 million contract, would be the most likely player to be dealt under those circumstances. He has three goals, 10 points, 83 hits and 31 blocks in 46 appearances in 2024-25. Those aren’t standout numbers, but Faksa would likely have a market among contenders looking to add to their bottom six.

Maybe trade offers involving Cam Fowler or Nick Leddy will be entertained too. Leddy has a full no-trade clause, while Fowler can limit his options to a four-team trade list, so the two blueliners have considerable control over their respective situations, but they’re also 33 years old and might be interested in the opportunity to play for a contender. Fowler and Leddy are signed through 2025-26, so each of them would come with a bit of term, which adds to their value, especially given that they also come with a reasonable cap hit of roughly $4 million (in Fowler’s case, that’s excluding the $2.5 million Anaheim has retained).

Fowler and Leddy are each capable of serving in a top four capacity. Fowler was already involved in a trade from Anaheim to St. Louis in December, so moving him again is a bit awkward, but given the Blues’ situation, it would make some sense to flip him to a team doing better. As for Leddy, he’s healthy after missing most of the campaign due to a lower-body injury. There seems to be a bit of load management going on given that he averaged just 17:21 of ice time over his first three games back -- his 2023-24 average was 22:22 -- but as he puts some distance between him and his time on the shelf, his workload should increase.

Ryan Suter will also probably get traded if there is interest in him. The 40-year-old isn’t the defenseman he once was, but he would be a nice veteran presence for a contender. Just don’t expect him to average anywhere close to his 20:29 in 2024-25 if he moves away from St. Louis.

If one or more of those blueliners do get traded, then Tyler Tucker will likely see an increase in playing time. We might also see Samuel Johannesson get called up from AHL Springfield to make his NHL debut. The 24-year-old has shown some offensive potential in the minors, providing three goals and 23 points in 46 appearances, so maybe he’d get a trial on the second power-play unit depending on who St. Louis parts with.

If the Blues make some moves up front, then Dalibor Dvorsky would likely get summoned from Springfield. The 19-year-old has looked good with 15 goals and 35 points in 44 AHL outings. It’s also worth keeping Jimmy Snuggerud in the back of your mind. He has 20 goals and 42 points in 32 games with the University of Minnesota as a junior. If he opts to go pro after the NCAA season, it’s feasible that he’ll immediately jump into a middle-six spot with the Blues.

So even if St. Louis misses the playoffs, there are some young players who might make those final weeks worth watching.

Washington Capitals

The Capitals will be at home next week and won’t have to deal with a back-to-back set. Washington will host Calgary on Tuesday, St. Louis on Thursday and Tampa Bay on Saturday.

Washington went into the break with a dominant lead in the Eastern Conference. The Capitals had 80 points (36-11-8) through 55 appearances, putting them nine points ahead of the second-rank Panthers despite Florida having played in two extra games. Although it’s too early for Washington’s spot atop the conference standings to be assured, we’re quickly approaching a point where the Capitals will have to resist the temptation to go onto cruise control until the playoffs.

While there are obvious benefits to the Capitals’ position, resting on your laurels down the stretch can make it hard to get serious again once the playoffs start. Fortunately, even if Washington soon finds itself in a position where wins feel optional, there will still be something to play for: Alex Ovechkin. The 39-year-old entered the 4 Nations break just 15 goals behind Wayne Gretzky and delivered a hat trick in his second game upon return to close the gap to 12 goals in the remaining 25 games. He’s scored at a pace of 0.67 goals per game this campaign, so becoming the all-time goal scorer by the end of the campaign looks attainable, should he stay healthy.

However, it has to be said that using that as the team’s motivation might be a double-edged sword. Getting the puck to Ovechkin is usually the right call -- he's converting on 18.4 percent of his shots after all -- but if the team puts all its focus into securing the record for Ovechkin, even at the cost of the fundamentals, then it might create bad habits. That’s potentially especially dangerous should the act of winning or losing become secondary.

Either way, he’s the best offensive weapon the Capitals have and should be well-rested after the break. He’s not the only one either -- no Washington player was included in the 4 Nations Face-Off.

Although Jordan Binnington got the job done, Logan Thompson would have also been a fantastic option for Team Canada after posting a 24-2-5 record, 2.23 GAA and .921 save percentage through 31 appearances with Washington this season, but he wasn’t included on the roster. The silver lining is that the time off should have given him a chance to reset -- he was working through a slump right before the break, posting a 1-0-2 record, 3.88 GAA and .867 save percentage across three outings.

That’s in contrast to Tom Wilson, who had four goals and six points across his final four outings before the break and has added three points in two games since returning. The 30-year-old has already suprassed his career high in goals with 26 and is on course to surpass his personal best of 52 points -- he has 45 through 57 contests this campaign.

Winnipeg Jets

The Jets will open the week by hosting the Sharks, and they’ll follow that up with a two-game road trip to Ottawa and Nashville on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The Jets will conclude the week back home with a clash against the Flyers on Saturday.

Like the Capitals, Winnipeg’s biggest challenge going forward might be finding ways to stay motivated down the stretch as games potentially mean progressively less. The Jets already have 81 points (39-14-3) after just 56 appearances, so their playoff position is fairly secure. They’ve even opened up a nine-point lead in the battle for the Western Conference’s top seed thanks to their active eight-game winning streak.

One benefit of that time off will be the ability to manage Connor Hellebuyck’s workload down the stretch. The 31-year-old netminder should still be counted on to play regularly, but we might see Eric Comrie move up to playing once every third game to make sure Hellebuyck isn’t burnt out by the time the playoffs start. It’s a situation worth monitoring closely if you have Hellebuyck on your fantasy team. Adding Comrie would be a good hedge, especially given that he’s been a fine backup with a 2.57 GAA and a .912 save percentage in 13 appearances.

On the trade front, Winnipeg is projected to have $11.2 million worth of deadline cap space, per Puckpedia, but the Jets are missing their 2025 second and fourth-round selections due to trades before this season, so Winnipeg has a little less to work with when it comes to acquiring players.

Another tricky thing is that…they play in Winnipeg. That’s not me trying to throw shade at the city, that’s me acknowledging a genuine challenge that the franchise has to constantly overcome because of player perceptions. The Athletic recently polled 111 players and granted them anonymity so that they could speak freely. When asked what the first team on their hypothetical no-trade list would be, 48.78 percent picked Winnipeg.

As one player put it: “There’s not much to do out there. It’s (censored) cold. I haven’t heard a guy go to Winnipeg and be like, 'This is going to be my forever home.’”

The second-place Sabres weren’t even close at 19.51 percent despite the Jets being a dominant club while Buffalo hasn’t made the playoffs since 2011. It’s not fair, but if a player has a partial no-trade list, then you have to consider the probability that Winnipeg is on it. Even still, Winnipeg might be able to bolster its blue line or add a middle-six forward before the deadline.

Seth Jones has interest in leaving Chicago, and Winnipeg was mentioned as a potential destination by The Athletic. He’d help solidify the Jets’ top four and maybe serve on the second power-play unit. His $9.5 million cap hit is a bit rich, but the cap is going up, and the Blackhawks might be willing to retain part of that salary. However, Jones has a no-movement clause, and given what we’ve already discussed when it comes to players' feelings for Winnipeg, he might not be willing to waive it for the Jets.

Getting Ryan Donato from Chicago might be more viable. It’s a far less splashy move, but Donato would be a nice third-line option. He has 19 goals and 38 points in 55 appearances this season. Connor Murphy would also be a solid add for Winnipeg in a trade with the Blackhawks. After supplying a goal, 13 points, 38 PIM, 72 hits and 100 blocks in 44 appearances with Chicago this campaign, he’d look nice on Winnipeg’s third pairing. Like Jones, though, Winnipeg would have to overcome the NTC problem -- Murphy has a 10-team no-trade list.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – NASHVILLE PREDATORS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 19:58:08 +0000

NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 19: Nashville Predators center Thomas Novak (82) is shown during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Edmonton Oilers, held on December 19, 2022, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

Review: The Predators have rarely been listed among the main contenders for the Stanley Cup in any given year, but they have managed to stay consistently competitive, making the playoffs for eight straight campaigns from 2014-15 through 2021-22. They nearly reached nine consecutive seasons but came just short with their 42-32-8 record last year. Juuse Saros deserves most of the credit for keeping Nashville close. He’s one of the most reliable goaltenders in the world, and he stayed strong in 2022-23, posting a 33-23-7 record, 2.69 GAA and .919 save percentage in 64 contests. Consider that Nashville ranked 28th in 5-on-5 expected goals against (199.01), suggesting the Predators were among the league’s worst teams defensively and would have consequently been easy to score against if not for some stellar netminding. Saros’ role was even more important because Nashville didn’t do much offensively. None of the Predators reached the 60-point mark, though it didn’t help that Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and especially Roman Josi missed meaningful chunks of the season. The silver lining is Saros is just 28, and the Predators have two more seasons left at a team-friendly $5 million cap hit, so there’s still time to build around him.

What’s Changed? Deciding major turnover was necessary, Predators GM Barry Trotz bought out Matt Duchene’s contract and traded Ryan Johansen to Colorado. Nashville leveraged that freed cap space to ink top-six forwards Ryan O'Reilly and Gustav Nyquist. They also added defensive defenseman Luke Schenn, which might make life a little easier on Saros.

What would success look like? The Predators could absolutely make it back into the playoffs, but their push needs to start with another great campaign from Saros. Assuming they have that, an injury-free year out of Josi would do a lot to make up the rest of the gap. Meanwhile, it will be the first full NHL campaign for forwards Thomas Novak, Luke Evangelista and Juuso Parssinen, who could combine to make Nashville a significantly better team offensively than they were in 2022-23.

What could go wrong? Whenever a team relies so much on a single player, as Nashville does with Saros, the nightmare scenario is always an injury to said player. Although Nashville does have a sufficient backup in Kevin Lankinen, but being forced to rely on him for an extended period would be far from ideal. It’s also not clear how much offensive help O’Reilly and Nyquist will be. Both had up-and-down campaigns last year, so if Nashville was hoping to swap Duchene and Johansen for safer bets, they may end up disappointed.

Top Breakout Candidate: After scoring 17 goals and 43 points in 51 games last season, Novak is perhaps too easy of a choice, so instead let’s focus on one of his projected linemates, Evangelista. The 21-year-old also had an encouraging, albeit much shorter, stint with Nashville in 2022-23, contributing seven goals and 15 points in 24 contests. Evangelista also excelled in the AHL with 41 points in 49 outings and turned pro with plenty of offensive upside. He’s a big part of why Nashville has reason for optimism about the long-term outlook of its forward core.

Forwards

Filip Forsberg - LW

Looking to follow up a fantastic 42-goal season, Forsberg started off a little slow with only two goals in the first month of the season. He hit his stride over the winter, scoring at a point-per-game pace in November and December before a concussion in early February sidelined him for the rest of the season. Streaky scoring isn’t out of the ordinary for Forsberg, as he is the type of player who will run hot, and he was on-pace to match his typical season totals before getting hurt. Talent eventually shows through with most players, and he is the type you can always count on to go on a scoring tear at some point. Terrific at generating offense on his own, Forsberg is one of the most creative shooters in the league. He can test goalies despite being covered or tricking defenders by passing at the very last second to set up a breakaway or a lay-up goal for his linemates. He had fantastic chemistry with Matt Duchene in 2022 for this reason and while they struggled to repeat that last year, Forsberg still found a way to get on the scoresheet with a revolving door of linemates. His 42-goal campaign might have been an aberration, but at the end of the day the Preds will be happy with what they get out of Forsberg.

Ryan O’Reilly - C

Nashville shook up their forward corps this summer, shipping off veterans Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen and bringing in Ryan O’Reilly as their new centerpiece. Whether you’re a contending team or navigating a rebuild, O’Reilly is a good player to build your forward group around. He can handle the big minutes and the tougher matchups, which will make life easier for the Tommy Novaks of the roster. Nashville’s blue line will also benefit from him, as he acts like a third defenseman with how deep he plays in the zone and how good he is at starting breakouts. This along with his strength in making plays on his backhand are his calling cards. He has also made the most out of playing with some of the scraps in the St. Louis’ forward corps, as the more talented players were moved to more scoring lines. Last year he formed an excellent checking line with Josh Leivo and Brandon Saad. O’Reilly is the type of player whose line will usually dominate territorially even if they aren’t scoring a lot of goals, so this bodes well for what he can do in Nashville. Very high floor, but a lower ceiling than there used to be with him.

Tommy Novak - C

The former Minnesota Gopher might have been the best player in the second half of the season that you’ve never heard of (unless you’re a Nashville fan or a fantasy hockey player). Known primarily as a playmaker and a pass-first player, the 17 goals in 50 games Novak scored last year was one fewer than his career total in four years at college and more than he scored in any season in the AHL. It wasn’t the “playing out of the string” type of production either, as Nashville was fighting for a playoff spot in the second half and three of Novak’s goals were scored in overtime. He showed signs that he could be a good player during his first cup of coffee with the Preds. He has excellent hands and was very good at making safe plays to keep offensive zone shifts going. What changed last year was that he really started poaching for more offense and began shooting more. Some of that is from getting endless breakaway opportunities but he also worked his way into the slot to create his own shot instead of reverting to the point or passing it off to someone else. At 26, this was probably Novak’s last chance to prove he belongs in the NHL and to say he proved that is an understatement.

Gustav Nyquist - LW

Every team needs a player or two like Nyquist, a decent scoring forward who isn’t a top-liner but can keep up with your big dogs if you need someone to fill-in. Nyquist has that Swiss-Army Knife toolset where he can do just enough to help everyone his line without being the main driver of it, not being the first one on pucks, but usually being in the right spot to receive a pass or setup a give-and-go. Uses his stick well in the defensive zone and was a regular on Columbus’ aggressive penalty kill for years, scoring seven shorthanded goals in three years with Columbus. Had no real consistent linemates with the Jackets last year and didn’t see any action with Minnesota until the playoffs where he played on a line with Ryan Hartman. Doesn’t have the shot or the game-breaking skill to be the driver on his line, or a consistent offensive threat, but will pitch-in enough to help any line that he is on. Modern day utility player and a nice placeholder for the Preds.

Cody Glass - C

Spending all of 2021-22 in the AHL, Nashville made it a priority to fix Cody Glass’ development after getting him from Vegas. The former third overall pick had a rocky start in the NHL and his first full season with the Predators was a major step forward. Finding his way as a middle-six center, Glass seemed to find his niche as a goal-scorer and a net-front guy on the power play. Scoring six of his goals with the man advantage, Glass is more of the “goal/point vulture” mold right now, he hangs around the net most of his shifts and has slowly figured out the ins-and-outs of scoring a lot of dirty goals. He has terrific hands but slow feet, so this is a good way for him to make an NHL career. It makes him more of a secondary player on his line, as he doesn’t play with a lot of pace, or handle the puck much, but it’s also something you can work around since he will do the little things away from the puck. His defensive game was especially encouraging, always in the right spot in coverage to help generate easy exits. Great things were expected for Glass when Vegas took him with their first ever pick and a detour to Nashville seems to be just what he needed to get his career back on track.

Yakov Trenin - LW

Appropriately nicknamed “The Yak,” the Nashville winger is probably most known for being one of the only players to fight Zdeno Chara twice. What they might not know is that he’s become one of Nashville’s more reliable players since then. Scoring double-digit goals in back-to-back seasons, he found a home on what was dubbed “The Herd Line” by Preds fans. He was one of the straws that stirred the drink on that line because he is very direct in how he plays. He shoots the puck at every opportunity and will lay a shoulder into any player that is along the boards. The more skilled parts of his game showed out a little last year, carrying the puck into the zone more and surprising defenders with his puck-handling. He still doesn’t drift too far from his bread and butter, always hanging around or behind the net to set up shop in the offensive zone and being a nuisance to play against. Also, a fixture on Nashville’s penalty kill alongside Colton Sissons. Trenin should continue to be a regular middle-sixer for Nashville even with The Herd Line disassembled.

Denis Gurianov - RW

Dallas finally decided to cut bait with their former first round pick, sending him to Montreal in exchange for Evgenii Dadonov. Far removed from his 20-goal rookie campaign, Gurianov struggled to find the scoring touch after that and hasn’t found a niche in the other parts of the game. His last year in Dallas was his low point, with only two goals in 43 games. If you tuned into their games, you know it wasn’t for a lack of trying, as he averaged more shots per 60 minutes than almost any of their other forwards and the blistering one-timer is still there. Being able to get it on the net has been the issue and his game went from one-dimensional to zero-dimensional as a high-shot volume player who couldn’t score. A fresh start in Montreal helped for a pinch, scoring four goals in five games after the trade but they ultimately let him become a free agent. He brings some qualities that Nashville could use, especially as a triggerman for their second power play unit and someone who plays with a high-motor and will at least work hard in his minutes. It’s tough to say if he will get regular playing time with so many players from Milwaukee looking for full-time jobs too.

Colton Sissons - C

A hero from their 2017 Stanley Cup run, Sissons has been a mainstay in Nashville’s bottom-six for years, centering The Herd Line with Trenin and Jeannot. He was one of a few players that had their role increased last year due to injury, playing close to 19 minutes some nights and even getting some prolonged time with Filip Forsberg in the top-six at times. Sissons is typically the “next man up” for Nashville in these situations because of how reliable his game is as a defensive player and that he has the stamina to play bigger minutes if needed. Most of the time he has a pretty thankless role as the center who takes most of the defensive zone faceoffs and the main job is surviving the shift before even thinking about making a play with the puck. It’s a tough, but necessary role on most teams and you can do worse than Sissons. He usually finds a way to get to the 25–30-point range despite that, though. Last year was his highest goal total since 2019, as the extra ice-time allowed him to poach for more offense at times. He can also play the wing if needed, so should continue to be a fixture in Nashville’s lineup next year.

Phillip Tomasino - RW

After spending all of 2021-22 in the NHL, the former first round pick wasn’t called up to Nashville until February. This decision was met with the refrain of “it’s about time,” as he was a sleeper pick for some people last year. Not setting the world on fire but showing some flash as a playmaker and looking like he belonged in the NHL at the very least. His play down the stretch was more of the same, Tomasino getting more of a run in the top-six and showing some of that creativity that got him drafted so high. Why he was in the AHL for so long is tough to say. Either Nashville didn’t want to have one of their top prospects stuck as a checker or they felt his overall game needed more work. Regardless, it looks like he did enough to be on the opening night roster this year. He was a decent weapon on the second power play unit, setting up a lot of plays from the right faceoff circle and scoring a few “surprise” goals off deflections. The lack of goal-scoring and his spotty play-driving are legitimate concerns, but hopefully he will get a full-season to iron those out this time around.

Defense

Roman Josi - D

Following up a record-setting season is tough. Perhaps it’s even more difficult when someone on another team breaks your own record, which was the case for Nashville’s star defenseman. He was the first defenseman to top 90 points, something that hasn’t been done post-lockout, until Erik Karlsson scored 101-points this year. There wasn’t a lot that changed about his overall game this year except the puck went into the net less often, mainly on the power play where he had 13 fewer points. Josi was the same, roaming player he has always been, always looking to push for offense. Nashville’s forwards not scoring as many goals as they used to is what hurt his point total more than anything. The same passing plays he created in 2022 weren’t as freely available last year, so the points didn’t come as easily for him. The main difference for the Nashville captain this year was adjusting to a new partner in Ryan McDonagh, pairing him with another lefty for the first time in a while and someone who is a little tougher around the edges than Dante Fabbro. It made breakouts a little easier, as Josi didn’t have to go the full 200 feet to create offense and could get up in the play more with a steady partner back. Still projects to be the team’s best player for the upcoming season.

Tyson Barrie - D

Some players are a product of the situations they’re in and Tyson Barrie has been living his best life running the top of the umbrella of the Oilers power play. His vision and deception from the point made him a good fit for that spot, as he can do more than just distribute from the point and find the soft spots in the penalty kill. Nashville got to see glimpses of that during his audition with the team after the trade deadline. He’s also a decent goal-scoring threat for a defenseman, tallying 10 last season. He has some utility at 5-on-5 but was used primarily on the third pair during his final year with Edmonton, as he doesn’t handle forecheck pressure well and has trouble translating his strong puck-skills when the game gets quicker. Most of his value is attached to what he does on the power play, which was a lot with the Oilers. 54-percent of his points with Edmonton were with the man advantage. He could see a bigger role in Nashville but will have a tough time unseating Roman Josi as the team’s power play quarter back.

Ryan McDonagh - D

Few players deserved the “underrated” tag more than Ryan McDonagh in his prime. He did everything you want out of a top-pairing defenseman and could control 5-on-5 play better than almost anyone. As he has gotten older, he’s gotten less concerned with putting up points and more with taking care of his own zone first. He’s a strong skater still and will jump in for a splash play occasionally, but he’s not the one-man breakout he used to be. Pairing him with Josi made sense on paper, as McDonagh can still be effective with taking hits and killing the play along the boards so Josi can scoop the puck up, but there is only so much you can do as a defenseman playing this style. You’re making the first play, but everything else is out of your control, so the downside is you might have a season like McDonagh where you spend most of the time blocking shots and preventing damage in your own zone. There’s a role for these players, but it’s a taxing style on their bodies and McDonagh already has a lot of miles on his tires at 33-years old. His skating is still strong enough to keep him a viable option on the penalty kill and the top-four.

Alex Carrier - D

The young defenseman suffered two setbacks, first was having his season derailed by an injury, second was losing Mattias Ekholm, Carrier’s defense partner for most of his brief career. His game isn’t too different from top-pairing defensemen around the AHL or in other leagues, just needing a chance to finally get a chance in the AHL. He’s a good skater that uses his stick to disrupt plays without taking penalties and was a great fit for John Hynes’ system where the right defensemen step up in the neutral zone regularly. Very good with the puck even if it doesn’t translate to a lot of points, as exiting the zone with control is a strength of his. Could be in a tough roster situation this year with Nashville having four right-handed defensemen under contract and his regular partner now playing for another team. Mobility and willingness to play anywhere in the lineup should be enough to keep him a regular, although maybe with a different role depending on how the roster shakes out.

Goaltending

Juuse Saros - G

The Nashville Predators missing out on the postseason last year was hardly goaltender Juuse Saros’ fault. The undersized – but remarkably well-positioned and hard-to-shake – number one put up one of the league’s best performances last year, despite the raw numbers showcasing nothing more than an overworked (but better than average) starter on an underperforming team. No goaltender in the NHL made more saves above expected last year than he did, with the 28-year-old keeping his team not just in games, but close to the playoff hunt quite literally down to the bitter end. The Predators missed the postseason by a mere three points last year, and it’s hard to believe they would have been anywhere but the league basement without Saros’ steady presence in more than two-thirds of their games.

Of course, there’s only so long that the team can continue to trot out Saros for over sixty games a year. It’s hard to imagine they don’t want to split the workload more evenly, and there’s a chance that he’ll be able to take some breaths of relief with prospect Yaroslav Askarov looking more and more ready for regular NHL action. But ultimately. Saros is a smaller goaltender who has to rely on picture-perfect precision in his game to keep the team from backsliding; if they keep playing him with the kind of workload they’ve asked of him for the last few years, it’s hard to imagine it won’t start to show up in the form of fatigue errors before they’re ready to get Askarov into regular game action. The Predators have to find the balance between treating their current starter right and avoiding any kind of rush job for their goaltender of the future – and right now, they’re toeing that line a little too closely for comfort.

Projected starts: 60-65

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS FLORIDA PANTHERS – A path opens up in the East for fortunate Leafs and surprising Panthers

Scott Cullen — Mon, 01 May 2023 17:28:02 +0000

TORONTO, ON - MARCH 29: Florida Panthers center Aleksander Barkov (16) plays the puck against Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) in the third period during the NHL regular season game between the Florida Panthers and the Toronto Maple Leafs on March 29, 2023 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Gavin Napier/Icon Sportswire)

TORONTO vs. FLORIDA

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2004 and have home ice advantage after the Florida Panthers pulled off a massive upset against the top-seeded Boston Bruins in the first round.

Now that they have broken the first-round seal, are the Maple Leafs ready to go on a Stanley Cup run? Can the Panthers carry their first-round magic forward? Ousting the Lightning and the Bruins, respectively, opens up potential opportunities for the team that can emerge from the Atlantic Division.

Forwards

Toronto’s high-priced forwards have taken plenty of criticism over the years for not rising to the occasion in the playoffs, but Toronto’s big dogs showed up against Tampa Bay. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander produced 13 goals and 34 points against Tampa Bay. The supporting cast matters but getting production from the stars at the top of the depth chart sets the foundation for a team to achieve success.

One of Toronto’s apparent strengths is that they have solid contributors beyond the core four. Ryan O’Reilly contributed seven points in the first round and Calle Jarnkrok moved up to play with Matthews and Marner. Rookie Matthew Knies added three assists and the Leafs controlled 57.4% of expected goals with him on the ice during five-on-five play.

Michael Bunting was suspended for three games in the series against Tampa Bay, then was a healthy scratch for Game 5, so he has more to offer, and it might be further down the depth chart because Toronto’s fourth line of Zach Aston-Reese, David Kampf, and Sam Lafferty managed 35.9% of shot attempts and 32.9% of expected goals during five-on-five play against Tampa Bay.

Matthew Tkachuk had an incredible season for the Panthers and carried that play into the playoffs against Boston. The Panthers’ winger put up 11 points and 22 shots on goal in the first round, with Florida controlling 63.4% of expected goals against Boston when Tkachuk was on the ice during five-on-five play. The Maple Leafs will need to find a solution to the problem that Tkachuk presents as a skilled and physical force.

Sam Bennett got into the Boston series in Game 2 and was an impact performer, with five points and 20 shots on goal in six games. Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, Eetu Luostarinen, and Anton Lundell all played solid contributing roles against the Bruins.

Maybe the most surprising part for Florida is that Aleksander Barkov had a hard time against Boston. He produced one goal and six points, but the Panthers only held 40.4% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Barkov on the ice. For a Panthers team that tends to lean on their stars, Barkov will need to elevate his game if they are going to advance.

Defense

After an up-and-down regular season, Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly stepped up and delivered an outstanding series against Tampa Bay. Rielly had three goals and eight points against Tampa Bay with Toronto getting 56.7% of expected goals and outscoring the Lightning 9-3 during five-on-five play with Rielly on the ice. Luke Schenn was frequently paired with Rielly and while Schenn struggled late in the regular season, he was excellent against Tampa Bay, with Toronto pulling 61.1% of expected goals with Schenn on the ice.

T.J. Brodie and Jake McCabe are an effective shutdown pair for Toronto, with McCabe providing a necessary physical element. Schenn and McCabe combined for 66 hits in the first round.

The third pairing was a trouble spot for Toronto against Tampa Bay. Justin Holl and Mark Giordano had just 40.0% of expected goals during five-on-five play and the Leafs were out-scored 9-2 during five-on-five play when Holl was on the ice against Tampa Bay. As a result, Timothy Liljegren and Erik Gustafsson were pressed into action in Game 6. It would make sense for Toronto to give Liljegren a chance to upgrade that pairing but it would not be a surprise for Holl to get a fresh start against the Panthers.

Brandon Montour’s breakout season continued in the first round against Boston. The right-shot blueliner put up five goals and eight points with 22 shots on goal. His confidence is soaring, and he is always ready to launch one-timers from the point on the power play. Montour has been paired with Marc Staal so that duo is vulnerable during five-on-five play. They had 40.5% of expected goals and were outscored 6-3 against the Bruins.

Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling formed an effective shutdown pair against Boston, controlling 55.1% of expected goals while the Panthers outscored the Bruins 8-2 with that duo on the ice during five-on-five play.

Josh Mahura was an under-the-radar pleasant surprise for Florida in the first round. Acquired off waivers from the Anaheim Ducks before the start of the season, Mahura averaged less than 11 minutes per game against Boston, but the Panthers earned 54.4% of shot attempts and 63.2% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Mahura on the ice. Radko Gudas stands out as the heavy hitter on this blueline, but he is somewhat vulnerable if he gets caught out there against speedy and skilled forwards.

Toronto’s group is steadier overall, but both teams have some question marks on the back end, which could ultimately cause problems.

Goaltending

Although he experienced some highs and lows against Tampa Bay, Ilya Samsonov ultimately picked up his first career playoff series victory. His save percentage was just .900, and he let in a few soft goals, but he had stellar performances in Game 3 and Game 6. Given his lack of a playoff track record, there is still plenty of uncertainty around Samsonov heading into this series, but he is clearly Toronto’s number one option with Joseph Woll in the backup role.

The Panthers opened the playoffs with Alex Lyon starting in goal against Boston and he had a .902 save percentage in three games, but Florida eventually turned to Sergei Bobrovsky, who is a high-wire act at this point.

Bobrovsky was erratic in games four and six against Boston and was excellent in game five and seven, ultimately backstopping the Panthers to three straight wins to finish the series. Bobrovsky has a .900 save percentage in 56 career playoff games, including .891 in five appearances this spring, so he is not an easy man to trust under these circumstances.

Goaltending is always important in the postseason, but it would be fair to say that both the Maple Leafs and Panthers have some uncertainty at the position heading into Round 2.

Special Teams

Toronto’s power play was among the best during the regular season and that carries over into the playoffs. During five-on-four play, the Leafs scored 12.48 goals per 60 minutes, ranking fifth among 16 playoff teams in the first round. Toronto’s big boys were firing on the power play, with Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, and O’Reilly all getting on the board against the Lightning.

Florida was closer to the middle of the pack, ranking ninth with 7.60 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. Tkachuk led the way with five power play points and Montour added a pair of power play goals against the Bruins.

Tampa Bay’s power play posed a problem for the Maple Leafs in the first round, scoring 10.92 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranked 10^th. However, that was still more successful than the Panthers, who allowed 15.31 goals per 60 minutes, ranking 13^th among playoff teams. A compounding issue for Florida is that they were one of three teams in the first round to spend more than six minutes per game playing four-on-five. By comparison, the Maple Leafs averaged 4:34 per game. That discipline could make a difference.

Conclusion

Toronto had some good fortune against Tampa Bay, picking up three overtime wins, including some in games that they did not necessarily deserve to win. For a team that is now a co-favorite to win the Stanley Cup and had a long drought of not winning a playoff series, they are in good position, but can hardly afford to look past the Panthers.

While Florida’s upset of the Bruins seems monumental because Boston just put up the most regular season points in history, the underlying numbers suggested that Florida was better than their place in the standings and they caught enough breaks to make the difference. If they could do that against Boston, who is to say that is couldn’t happen against Toronto? I’ll side with the Maple Leafs…cautiously. Maple Leafs in 6.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Did the Leafs add enough to finally get over the first-round playoff hump?

Scott Cullen — Fri, 14 Apr 2023 16:05:34 +0000

TAMPA, FL - APRIL 11: Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Brandon Hagel (38) and Toronto Maple Leafs right wing William Nylander (88) during the NHL Hockey match between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs on April 11th 2023 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)

For the second straight season there is a solid case to be made that the Toronto Maple Leafs are better than the Tampa Bay Lightning. Not by a lot, necessarily, but the Maple Leafs finished higher in the standings, with a better goal differential, and superior puck possession numbers.

Is that going to be enough for the Maple Leafs to finally get over the first-round playoff hump for the first time since 2003-2004?

Forwards

Auston Matthews battled through a wrist injury and still finished with 40 goals, after scoring 60 goals last season. He seemed to be in fine form in the latter stages of the year, putting up 14 goals and 28 points with 114 shots on goal in his last 22 games. If the Leafs are going to win the series, they will need Matthews and Mitch Marner to elevate their play for the postseason. Both have managed 33 points in 39 career playoff contests and that’s respectable, but Toronto needs even more from their star forwards. It is fair to wonder about the Leafs’ scoring depth. William Nylander had his first 40-goal season and John Tavares remains productive, but there is a thinner cast of productive forwards behind the Big Four.

Ryan O’Reilly adds something to the lineup when healthy, and both Calle Jarnkrok and Michael Bunting have proven to be useful complementary pieces, but someone in the supporting cast needs to step up. Maybe it will be rookie Matthew Knies, who has recorded one assist in three games since joining the Leafs after his University of Minnesota season ended with a loss in the national championship game.

Tampa Bay has elite talent with a track record of playoff success. Nikita Kucherov has 93 points over the past three postseasons, most in the league by a long shot. Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon ranks second with 64 and Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point ranks third with 61. Steven Stamkos has 33 points in 47 games across the past three playoffs, missing most of the 2019-2020 Stanley Cup run. With three straight trips to the Final, Tampa Bay has received ample secondary scoring.

Alex Killorn and Anthony Cirelli have been contributors throughout Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup runs while Ross Colton, Brandon Hagel, Nick Paul, and Corey Perry have joined the fray more recently. The expectation was that Tanner Jeannot might offer some more toughness and scoring depth after he was acquired from Nashville, but a late season lower-body injury could prevent him from being ready for the start of the playoffs.

Defense

For all of the changes that the Maple Leafs have made to their blueline in recent seasons, there are still going to be questions about how strong this group is heading into the playoffs. Toronto ranks seventh in shots against and 11th in expected goals against per 60 minutes, but the results since the trade deadline are not quite as encouraging. Since adding Jake McCabe, Luke Schenn, and Erik Gustafsson, the Leafs rank 18^th and 20^th, respectively, in those categories. McCabe and T.J. Brodie have formed an effective shutdown pair while Mark Giordano and Justin Holl are competent, but there are legitimate concerns about the performance of Morgan Rielly, whose ice time has dropped under 20 minutes per game over the past month, and Luke Schenn, who has been getting caved in consistently since returning to Toronto. Timothy Liljegren offers a steady alternative, but only if head coach Sheldon Keefe includes him in the lineup.

When the Lightning have been making their runs to the Stanley Cup Final, they have had a strong defensive record and this season has revealed some vulnerability on that front, with higher-than-average rates of shots and expected goals against. Mikhail Sergachev busted out with the best season of his career, scoring 64 points while playing nearly 24 minutes per game.

For the first time in a long time Victor Hedman was not a standout on the Tampa Bay blueline, showing more defensive vulnerability, but he has produced 59 points in 71 games during Tampa Bay’s last three playoff runs, so he could easily be a difference maker once again. Erik Cernak and Ian Cole are effective shot suppressors while Nicklaus Perbix and Darren Raddysh have been seeing more regular action than Zach Bogosian. Overall, though, this group represents an area of legitimate concern for Tampa Bay.

Goaltending

With Matt Murray injured, Toronto has a lot riding on Ilya Samsonov, a 26-year-old who had the best season of his career, posting a .919 save percentage while starting a career-high 40 games. However, he has modest playoff experience, with just one win in seven career postseason starts. Any goaltender that achieves playoff success has to start somewhere.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is the standard bearer among active goaltenders for playoff performance. Not only has he started 71 games in the past three postseasons, but he has delivered a .928 save percentage, which is tops among goaltenders to appear in at least 10 games. With Tampa Bay’s suspect defense, the Lightning will need an epic performance from the 2021 Conn Smythe Trophy winner. That is not out of the question, but it is the first time in a while that Tampa Bay has been so dependent on its star netminder.

Special Teams

Given the top tier talent on these teams, it comes as no surprise that both clubs have fared well with the man advantage. Toronto ranks fourth with 9.25 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play and Tampa Bay is close behind in fifth with 9.10 goals per 60.

Maple Leafs captain John Tavares tallied 18 of his 36 goals on the power play and Auston Matthews added 13. Tampa Bay’s top triggermen on the power play were Brayden Point, who scored 20 of his 51 goals with the man advantage, and Steven Stamkos, who added 14.

Toronto’s penalty killing is a strength, ranking fifth with 5.72 goals against per 60 minutes during four-on-five play, thanks largely to allowing the lowest rate of high danger shot attempts in those circumstances. That does offer Toronto an edge over Tampa Bay, which ranks 15^th with 7.21 goals against per 60 during four-on-five play.

Conclusion

The Maple Leafs were right there with the Lightning in last year’s playoff matchup, ultimately losing in Game 7, but this year’s version of the Lightning is not quite as formidable. There is the possibility that the Lightning can just flip the postseason switch and be ready for another Stanley Cup run, but it looks like Tampa Bay has slipped enough that the Maple Leafs can finally earn a first-round victory. Maple Leafs in 6.

NHL: SZNAJDER – Defenseman moved at the NHL deadline – Puck-movers, retrievers and roster reshuffling

Corey Sznajder — Fri, 10 Mar 2023 15:52:26 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 01: Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Mattias Ekholm (14) in his first game as an Oilers defends his zone in the first period of the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Toronto Maple Leads on March 1, 2023 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

The trade deadline always brings out some interesting team philosophies. Sometimes it’s as simple as getting the best player available like the Devils getting Timo Meier or Toronto adding Ryan O’Reilly with the Blues falling out of the playoff race early. Then there’s those moves around the margins that look like depth adds at first glance but can really payoff in the post-season. Vegas adding Ivan Barbashev to bolster their forward depth being a good example of that.

It's always interesting to see which players teams target at the deadline and what skillsets they value heading into a playoff run. This is especially true with defensemen, which is probably the biggest game of “choose your own adventure” in hockey. Good team defense is more about having all five players dialed in and understanding their assignments, but the two blue liners are always going to shoulder more of the burden even if it’s not always their fault. This is where teams run into problems at the deadline.

Everyone wants to add defensemen, but there’s a bigger risk of not getting what you bargained for when you’re taking someone from a different system and making him play 20+ minutes a night in high leverage situations. Sometimes you get situations like Ben Chiarot on the Florida Panthers last year, where a defenseman who is more suited to patrol the front of the net and deliver hits is playing in a system where most of the game is played off the rush. It becomes fitting a square peg into a round hole and becomes a part of a roster you have to work around instead of playing to your strengths. Compare that to Tampa Bay getting David Savard two years ago, who was mostly asked to kill penalties and play lower in the lineup with Mikhail Sergachev as his safety valve, and it’s a much more natural situation where a player with a specific skillset is filling a certain role.

It’s tough to avoid these pitfalls because everyone looks for different skillsets in defensemen and it becomes more difficult the fill gaps higher in the lineup. A guy who can make a beautiful stretch pass and put up points on the power play might not be suited to play over 20 minutes a night against top lines while the defender who hits hard but struggles to move the puck might hinder your team’s offense. A defender who might be good at defending zone entries could be benefitting from a system that has a tight neutral zone forecheck or help from forwards. It becomes a complicated puzzle that can either win or cost you a playoff series.

Something that most defensemen eventually have to do, though is retrieve the puck. Whether it’s chasing a dump-in, getting it off the wall or freeing the puck for a teammate, clean puck retrievals are how most games are decided. In this study looking at every goal scored in the 2021-22 season, about 65% of five-on-five goals scored off the rush started in the defensive zone, with 32.5% coming off a retrieval against a forecheck. In addition to that, 42% of all five-on-five goals last year were scored off an offensive zone turnover or a retrieval, which shows the importance in this part of the game. Even if you’re not starting a rush, negating a forecheck or flipping possession can be just as important, especially with defending the lead.

Defensemen are always going to be heavily involved in this part of the game regardless of their skillset and it’s where chemistry and complementary skillsets can really make a difference. One defenseman can take the hit while the other makes the play, or one can stand up at the blue line while the other goes back to clear the puck. We can start to see the value of things like “making a good first pass” or “making the forwards job easier.” Few players demonstrate this better than Edmonton Oilers deadline pickup Matthias Ekholm:

A mainstay in Nashville for years, he’s had a pretty thankless role of soaking up some of the tougher minutes so that Roman Josi can spend as much time as possible way from forecheck pressure and in the offensive zone. He’s part of the newer wave of shutdown defensemen who use their skating, their reach and their agility to kill plays before they start (although he will block a lot of shots if he has to). He is one of the few that’s the complete package, because he could put up zero points and still bring you some value with how strong he is along the wall with killing plays.

The first clip shows what the Oilers are probably going to see the most reward from. Ekholm’s very good at taking the puck from a dead stop and making long, quick passes out of the zone to either lead the rush or flip possession. It might have more of a reward in Edmonton with McDavid on the receiving end of those passes than Nashville’s forward corps, so it’s easy to see the potential upside here. The other side of this is how good he is at drawing defenders to him and getting rid of the puck right as they’re about to check him. Using that strong upper-body to absorb contact and bait defenders into being over-aggressive on the forecheck.

The puck skill, however, is where the Oilers can reap the most value out of him. Their blue line isn’t bad but doesn’t have a lot of great passers out of the zone. This is where Ekholm might be able to add a dimension to the Oilers offense. Everyone knows how good McDavid is, but Ekholm getting him the puck could make it less of a one-man show and more of a quick-strike. Whether it can work in the playoffs remains to be seen, but Ekholm should be able to help Edmonton’s top guns catch other teams off line changes and work together in the offensive zone a little more than they do now. Tyson Barrie gave them some of that but was limited to a power play specialist after a while because he’s best as the second player in the rush rather than the one starting it.

Here we see both sides of what Ekholm can do for Edmonton’s transition game. He’s aggressive with how he defends the blue line, using his skates and his reach to kill plays and he’s very good at getting back to retrieve the puck himself to start the rush. This is a skill the Oilers don’t really have on their blue line right now and it’s not particularly easy to find either. The other thing is how he can cover for his partner struggling to get the puck out of the zone, in this case he rescues a botched exit from young Phillip Broberg to help the Oilers get out of the zone cleanly. He’s capable of playing both sides and making plays from awkward positions, so you can see how this was a perfect fit for Edmonton. Ekholm is going to be asked to stay back more times than not, but he’s such a good passer and a smart player that it shouldn’t negate his skillset.

With Ekholm, the fit with the Oilers is clear. It’s not as easy with some other teams, namely the Toronto Maple Leafs who completely shuffled the deck on their blue line. Out goes Rasmus Sandin, in comes Luke Schenn, Jake McCabe and Erik Gustafsson. Toronto has been trying to find a winning formula in the playoffs for ages and they are no short of options with nine defensemen currently on the roster. The big move is essentially replacing Sandin with McCabe, as Schenn and Gustafsson are likely just role players for now (although it’s nice to have NHLers waiting in the wings if injuries strike).

Players like McCabe are probably the toughest to get a read on if you don’t watch them every night. He has the reputation as a minute-eater, spending most of his career playing a top-four role on bad Buffalo and Chicago teams but he’s one of those players that’s more like a Rorschach Test for hockey fans because he spends so much time in his own zone. Some appreciate his skill while others focus on the mistakes. What is interesting is Leafs GM Kyle Dubas mentioned his puck-moving as a skill they valued in addition to his competitiveness. Basically, filling the Jake Muzzin role of a sizeable defenseman who isn’t a butcher with the puck.

Every team could use a player like that in theory, but what do the puck retrieval stats say and how does it work in the context of the Leaf’s defense?

So, this kind of backs up what Dubas is saying. McCabe’s very capable with the puck, he just struggled when he had to be the one going back to retrieve it. He was also pretty good at mitigating damage off the rush on a bad Chicago team, so that should bode well. This is also where he’s stood out the most in his first couple of games with the Leafs and you can see some of the qualities Dubas talked about.

McCabe isn’t going to totally kill the play when the rush is happening at full speed, but he’s engaging enough to disrupt Grade A scoring chances. The puck has to go through a couple of layers before it gets to the net and the Toronto goalies are only going to have to square up to one shot if he plays everything perfectly. You can also see him going for contact whenever a forward touches the puck and always looking for something to do to make the cycle harder instead of just patrolling the front of the net. The only downside is that Brodie might have to shoulder the burden with getting to pucks if McCabe is always going to be chasing the play, but it’s only been a few games so he should have time to adapt.

It’s an interesting playstyle for a defenseman more known for blocking shots because he’s more of the secondary/support mold than someone who’s going to be the first one back to take a hit. How he fits into Toronto’s depth chart is a little more encouraging.

If there’s a positive here, it’s that Toronto isn’t short on defenseman who can retrieve the puck. Brodie has been one of the better players in the league at this for most of his career and this is probably where McCabe ends up slotting long-term. Whether it’s a true shutdown pair or a duo that’s just soaking up defensive minutes remains to be seen, but the complementary skillsets appear to be there on paper. The rest of the lineup might be a bit of trial and error for Toronto. It seems like they’re putting a lot of faith in Justin Holl to continue being Morgan Rielly’s safety valve as Timothy Liljegren and Mark Giordano give them some decent puck-moving on the third pair. McCabe-Brodie could end up playing more of a factor than they pictured in another month.

What’s interesting is that Sandin brought some of the same qualities to the Leafs, but Toronto might value McCabe’s size and tenacity more in the playoffs. Teams are looking for whatever edge they can in the playoffs and the Leafs top priority seemed to be focused around building a pure shutdown pair with some puck-moving capabilities. They lose some passing skill with Sandin leaving, but maybe they saw that as a luxury and wanted more of an aggressive defender who can make a quick 10–15-foot pass instead than someone who is going to skate his way out of trouble. Whether or not this pays off depends if McCabe’s struggles in retrieving pucks is more from playing on a bad Chicago team than his own skill deteriorating. There’s also some value in minimizing damage when you can’t get to pucks or are up against a tough forecheck. That seems to be where McCabe will have the most value.

Retrievals are one area of the game you can’t really hide from, so it will be interesting to see how this works in action come April. Toronto is putting a lot of faith in blending complementary skillsets together without one star and their postseason fate is going to heavily depend on how their defense holds up in this area.

Stats are from allthreezones.com

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Key trade deadline moves with fantasy impact

Scott Cullen — Fri, 03 Mar 2023 23:17:52 +0000

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 02: New York Rangers Left Wing Artemi Panarin (10) and New York Rangers Right Wing Patrick Kane (88) talk during the National Hockey League game between the Ottawa Senators and the New York Rangers on March 2, 2023 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week brought a flurry of trades even before Friday’s NHL Trade Deadline and then not so much on deadline day. Nevertheless, here is a look at the potential impact of the most significant moves, including Patrick Kane, Timo Meier, Jakob Chychrun, Shayne Gostisbehere, Tyler Bertuzzi and many more.

#1 When the New York Rangers traded for Vladimir Tarasenko, it looked like Patrick Kane might not get his wish to end up on Broadway. Kane re-ignited trade interest by putting up 10 points (7 G, 3 A) in his last four games with the Blackhawks and he should be productive in New York, where he will have a stronger supporting cast and is re-united with former Blackhawks linemate Artemi Panarin. Overall, this probably improves Kane’s value down the stretch but his strong finish in Chicago ensures that he won’t be any kind of buy-low bargain for fantasy managers.

#2 A shot generating beast, Timo Meier was acquired by the New Jersey Devils from the San Jose Sharks and while he is recovering from an upper-body injury, there is an excellent opportunity awaiting him with the Devils. Whether he ends up with either Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes as his center, Meier is going to be in position to keep producing at an elite level. He had 31 goals in 57 games with San Jose, averaging a career-high 4.47 shots on goal per game. As for the Sharks, they will offer a bigger role for Fabian Zetterlund, who had 20 points (6 G, 14 A) in 46 games for New Jersey and Andreas Johnsson, who has been stuck in the minors for most of the season and had 30 points (9 G, 21 A) in 36 AHL games, but they would only hold appeal in the deepest of leagues.

#3 The Ottawa Senators landed one of the most sought-after defensemen with the addition of Jakob Chychrun from the Arizona Coyotes. Chychrun has had trouble staying healthy throughout his career but has also been very productive when he is on the ice. Since 2018-2019, among defensemen that have played at least 200 games, Chychrun ranks sixth with 0.19 goals per game (49 goals in 256 games) and seventh with 2.73 shots on goal per game. The question is whether Chychrun has a chance to supplant Thomas Chabot on Ottawa’s top power play unit. In Arizona, Juuso Valimaki is set to take over as the full-time quarterback on the Coyotes power play. He has 10 assists, including five with the man advantage, in the past 11 games.

#4 One of the reasons that Valimaki is the new No. 1 option on the Arizona blueline is that, in addition to trading Chychrun, the Coyotes dealt puck-moving defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere to Carolina. Gostisbehere will get regular power play time with the Hurricanes and given Carolina’s five-on-five dominance, he should see an uptick in production at even strength, too. The Hurricanes also acquired right winger Jesse Puljujarvi from Edmonton. While Puljujarvi is probably more of a long-term project, who arrives with 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in 58 games, he did score 29 goals in 120 games over the previous two seasons. He has been a strong play-driving winger, which fits in Carolina, but Puljujarvi may also have some untapped offensive potential, too.

#5 With long-term injuries hitting wingers Taylor Hall and Nick Foligno, the Boston Bruins wasted no time in dealing for Tyler Bertuzzi from the Detroit Red Wings. Bertuzzi was an attractive commodity on the trade market even though he had just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 29 games for Detroit. He was scoring on a career-low 6.5% of his shots, with a 7.8% on-ice shooting percentage, so he is probably due for some positive regression when it comes to his percentages. With Bertuzzi departing Detroit, Dominik Kubalik moved back up to the Wings’ top line.

#6 Power forward Nino Niederreiter landed with the Winnipeg Jets after scoring 28 points (18 G, 10 A) in 56 games for the Nashville Predators. Niederreiter is a six-time 20-goal scorer and should have a good opportunity to produce down the stretch for Winnipeg. He played more than 18 minutes in his first game for the Jets, something Niederreiter did in 11 of 56 games for the Predators. While Nashville has made several changes, one of the more notable moves was to call John Leonard up from the AHL, where he had 32 points (11 G, 21 A) in 52 games for Milwaukee. Leonard scored in his first game for the Preds, skating on a line with Cody Glass and Matt Duchene.

#7 After scoring 24 goals as a rookie last season, Tanner Jeannot was snakebit for most of this season in Nashville, scoring just five goals and 14 points in 56 games. He also had 213 hits and can drop the gloves, if need be, so he can have an impact without scoring, but the Tampa Bay Lightning will try to rekindle Jeannot’s touch around the net. He is skating on the third line with Ross Colton and Nick Paul, a line that should be tough to play against. With Jeannot gone, Cole Smith has joined Colton Sissons and Yakov Trenin on Nashville’s checking line.

#8 One more deal for Nashville, as they sent Mikael Granlund to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Granlund had 36 points (9 G, 27 A) in 58 games for the Preds, and has three seasons in his career with more than 60 points, so he has the skill to be a productive contributor. At the same time, it is not like he is stepping into a big role with the Penguins. In his first game for Pittsburgh, Granlund played mostly with Jeff Carter and Danton Heinen, which is not the best spot for putting up points. Granlund’s departure from Nashville does open up room for a scoring winger and recently called up right winger Philip Tomasino has a chance to take advantage of that situation. Tomasino had 32 points (12 G, 20 A) in 38 AHL games before getting called up and has five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games since his promotion.

#9 The Vancouver Canucks made one trade with an eye to the future and one that is more geared to the present. First, they sent checking winger William Lockwood to the New York Rangers for Vitali Kravtsov, a 23-year-old winger who had fallen out of favor with the Blueshirts after managing six points (3 G, 3 A) in 28 games. Kravtsov might have some long-term upside but is not likely to offer fantasy value this season. Vancouver’s other major deal involved the addition of Filip Hronek from the Detroit Red Wings. Hronek is a 25-year-old right shot defenseman who has already tied his career high with 38 points (9 G, 29 A) in 60 games. However, 16 of those 38 points have come on the power play and it would seem unlikely that Hronek would get first unit power play time ahead of Quinn Hughes in Vancouver. Hronek’s departure does open up more of an opportunity on the power play for Detroit’s sophomore blueliner Moritz Seider, who started slowly, but has 18 points (2 G, 16 A) in his past 23 games.

#10 The St. Louis Blues continued to sell off veteran talent, dealing versatile forward Ivan Barbashev to the Vegas Golden Knights. Barbashev had a career-high 60 points in 2021-2022 and is not likely to get to that level again, but had 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 59 games for St. Louis before the trade. Barbashev is getting an excellent opportunity in Vegas, skating on the top line with Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault, so Barbashev is worth tracking in his new location. St. Louis has overhauled a lot of their forward group, but waiver pickup Kasperi Kapanen is looking at a better role than he had in Pittsburgh. Kapanen had 20 points (7 G, 13 A) in 43 games for the Penguins, but was playing just 12 minutes per game. He will play more than that in St. Louis and is getting a look alongside Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich.

The Blues picked up a winger desperately in need of a fresh start. Jakub Vrana was traded from Detroit to St. Louis and the 27-year-old winger spent some time in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program this season. He had just two points (1 G, 1 A) in five games for the Red Wings as well as 11 points (6 G, 5 A) in 17 AHL games. However, when he was not injured or otherwise out of the lineup Vrana did score 22 goals in 42 games with Detroit, so there is obvious upside for a team like St. Louis, that is not looking for a full rebuild, but a quick turnaround instead. Tread cautiously with adding Vrana for this season but see what kind of opportunity he gets with the Blues and expect that he will have sleeper value next season.

#11 The Edmonton Oilers bolstered their roster with the additions of defenseman Mattias Ekholm from Nashville and center Nick Bjugstad from Arizona. Ekholm is a defensive standout, but is a capable puck mover, too, and has recorded more than 30 points in five different NHL seasons. Tyson Barrie went to Nashville in the Ekholm deal and going from Edmonton’s power play to Nashville’s power play is going to be a shock to the system. Edmonton has scored 12.50 goals per 60 during five-on-four play, easily the best in the league, while Nashville has scored 6.34 goals per 60, ranking 24^th. Barrie scored 28 of his 43 points with the man advantage and will be replaced on the Oilers power play by Evan Bouchard, who has been able to generate points at evens, but has 14 of his 70 career points on the power play. Since the Oilers’ power play is driven more by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, Bouchard should benefit from the new role. Bjugstad had 13 goals and 23 points in 59 games for Arizona, but he is likely to fill a bottom six role with the Oilers, so should not bring much fantasy value.

#12 The Los Angeles Kings, feeling like contenders, upgraded their defense and goaltending in a trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets, acquiring blueliner Vladislav Gavrikov and netminder Joonas Korpisalo, while sending goalie Jonathan Quick to Columbus. Gavrikov tallied a career-high 33 points last season but has just 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in 52 games this season, so he does not offer much fantasy appeal. Korpisalo, however, is looking at the opportunity to start for a team that is headed to the playoffs. Over the course of his career, Korpisalo has mostly been a below average goaltender, but he had a .919 save percentage in his last 17 games for Columbus and that is good enough for him to count as an upgrade for a Kings team that needed AHL call-up Pheonix Copley to save their season. Quick was reportedly not happy about the deal to Columbus and was then flipped to the Vegas Golden Knights. With Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit injured, Vegas could use someone to back up behind Adin Hill. Quick had a .876 save percentage in 31 games for the Kings, which would be a career-low mark for the 37-year-old goaltender. All of this is to say that Quick does not offer much for fantasy managers at this stage of his career.

#13 The Toronto Maple Leafs continued their active ways, dealing defenseman Rasmus Sandin to the Washington Capitals for Erik Gustafsson and a first-round pick. Sandin has a chance to play a substantial role in Washington for the rest of this season and beyond. With John Carlson injured, and Gustafsson heading to Toronto, Sandin is looking at a prime situation in which he can quarterback Washington’s first power play unit. Gustafsson, who had scored 11 of his 38 points with Washington while on the man advantage, is tied for 15^th among defensemen with 27 even-strength points. However, Toronto’s blueline looks awfully crowded so, barring a sudden change, Gustafsson is likely to fall into a depth role, virtually eliminating his fantasy appeal. Toronto also added defensemen Jake McCabe and Luke Schenn, as well as center Sam Lafferty, any of whom might help Toronto’s plans to add grit for the postseason, but none of them look like fantasy contributors.

#14 The Dallas Stars acquired Evgeni Dadonov from the Montreal Canadiens, sending Denis Gurianov the other way. The Stars also brought in center Max Domi from the Chicago Blackhawks. Dadonov is a skilled veteran winger who had a shooting percentage of 5.6% and on-ice shooting percentage of 6.6% for the Habs, both of which are likely to get a natural lift – he’s due! Dadonov has three points (1 G, 2 A) and eight shots on goal in three games for the Stars, skating on a line with Jamie Benn and Wyatt Johnston. Gurianov had just two goals in 43 games for Dallas, but he scored 20 goals in 2019-2020, so there is some upside there and the Habs have the time to draw it out of him. Gurianov scored a goal in his second game for Montreal and played more than 17 minutes in his first two games for the Canadiens, a threshold he had not hit this season in Dallas. Domi wrapped up his tenure with the Blackhawks by scoring 14 points (4 G, 10 A) with 29 shots on goal in his last eight games. He has 49 points, his most in a season since scoring 72 points in 2018-2019. He will be in more of a supporting role with Dallas, so while he may contribute in Dallas, his fantasy value has probably peaked already. With Domi gone, 2020 first-round pick Lukas Reichel has been promoted from the AHL, where he had 46 points (17 G, 29 A) in 51 games for Rockford. Reichel has stepped into Domi’s spot, centering Chicago’s top line between Andreas Athanasiou and Philipp Kurashev.

#15 The Minnesota Wild made some modest deals to improve their forward depth before making bigger deals at the deadine. First, they added Gustav Nyquist from the Columbus Blue Jackets and Marcus Johansson from the Washington Capitals. Nyquist is injured, but should be healthy by the time the playoffs roll around and he is a competent scoring middle six winger. Johansson could have a little fantasy sleeper value. He had 28 points (13 G, 15 A) in 60 games for Washington, but started his second stint with the Wild by playing more than 16 minutes while skating on a line with Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy.

The Wild then added defenseman John Klingberg from Anaheim, where he had 24 points (8 G, 16 A) in 50 games, and just going to a better team ought to help Klingberg’s production. Will he step into the Wild’s top power play unit? The Wild rank 10^th with 8.18 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, but rookie defenseman Calen Addison is the top-scoring power play defenseman for the Wild and he has been a healthy scratch recently.

Minnesota also shipped winger Jordan Greenway to Buffalo, but he had just seven points (2 G, 5 A) in 45 games. Greenway produced a career-high 32 points (6 G, 26 A) in 56 games in 2020-2021, but has typically not scored enough to matter for fantasy purposes. The Wild replaced Greenway on the roster with Oskar Sundqvist, who had 21 points (7 G, 14 A) in 52 games for Detroit. Of all these additions by the Wild, Klingberg is the only one with widespread fantasy appeal.

#16 Although he played just 13 minutes per game for the Toronto Maple Leafs, lanky winger Pierre Engvall could have a better situation waiting for him with the New York Islanders, at least in the short term. With injuries up front, the Isles have Engvall starting out with Anders Lee and Bo Horvat on the top line. It’s worth giving him a look. In 21 games this season in which Engvall played more than 14 minutes, he contributed seven goals and four assists.

#17 With the deals covered, there are still some players that are heating up and worth adding, starting with the Devils’ Dawson Mercer. The second year forward has scored a goal in seven straight games, putting up 14 points (9 G, 5 A) with 22 shots on goal. He has a good thing going on a line with Nico Hischier and Tomas Tatar.

#18 Carolina’s second year right winger Seth Jarvis has returned to the top line, alongside Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. He has seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past six games and his increased shot rate makes it easier to buy him as a scoring threat down the stretch.

#19 Trying to recapture last season’s magic, when Ryan Hartman had a career high 34 goals and 65 points the Minnesota Wild have re-united Hartman with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello on the top line. Hartman has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past seven games.

#20 Scoring Buffalo’s only goal in Thursday’s 7-1 loss at Boston, Casey Mittelstadt is on a tear, with 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past 10 games. That shot rate is concerning when it comes to sustaining his offensive production, but Mittelstadt is up to a career high 38 points (10 G, 28 A) in 60 games and that warrants consideration in deeper leagues.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – VANCOUVER CANUCKS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:57:43 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - APRIL 03: Vancouver Canucks center J.T. Miller (9) skates up ice during their NHL game against the Vegas Golden Knights at Rogers Arena on April 3, 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

J.T. Miller

It is unusual for a player to have his best season when he is in his late twenties, but 29-year-old J.T. Miller delivered a monster season for the Canucks in 2021-2022, recording 32 goals and 99 points while the Canucks outshot opponents with Miller on the ice and struggled to do so when he was off the ice. Not only does Miller have skill and playmaking ability, but he is a strong physical player who recorded 172 hits, making him the only player in the league to have that many hits while recording more than a point per game. It would be asking a lot for Miller to duplicate the best season of his career, and there is some likelihood of percentages declining, but he also generated a career-best 2.58 shots per game last season and his high percentages, both in terms of his own shooting percentage and 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage have been above average every year that he has been in Vancouver. That would seem to indicate that he is still capable of producing in the range of a point per game, maybe a little more.

Elias Pettersson

Following an injury-shortened 2020-2021 season, Pettersson got off to a terrible start and by mid-January had just 17 points in 37 games. He looked lost and his confidence was fading fast. At his low point, he looked nothing like the slick playmaker that he had been for most of his first three seasons in the league, when he earned a reputation for making smart and creative plays in the offensive zone, providing surprisingly effective defensive play, and then ripping wrist shots to the top shelf. That player returned for the second half of last season, as Pettersson finished the season with 26 goals and 51 points in his last 43 games. He moved to left wing to play with Miller and that seemed to bring out the best in both. It also appeared to bring back Pettersson’s confidence and while his finish to the season would suggest that the 23-year-old could go for more than a point per game over a full season, that might be a bit optimistic. He has never scored more than 70 points in a season but that could happen this season.

Bo Horvat

The Canucks captain brings his hard hat to work and scored a career-high 31 goals last season. He does a lot of his damage on the power play. In the past five seasons, Horvat has scored 49 goals with the man advantage, tied with Brayden Point for 13^th in the league over that time. Horvat has played a significant role with the Canucks in those five seasons, averaging 19:54 of ice time per game and winning 54.9% of his faceoffs. In his eight-year NHL career, he has five 20-goal seasons and four seasons with at least 50 points, so he has established a baseline for what he might be able to produce. If he stays reasonably healthy, a point total in the mid-50s would be a fair expectation for a 27-year-old who, barring a new contract, is set to be a free agent at the end of next season.

Brock Boeser

Since scoring 29 goals as a rookie in 2017-2018, Boeser has not been able to get back to that level of production. He has a good shot but could always be more aggressive about using it. While Boeser’s all-around game looks like it could use some improvement, it’s worth observing that he always has better shot differentials relative to the rest of the team. Some of that might be due to more offensive zone starts, but those results have held long enough that he does deserve some credit. Boeser did have his fourth 20-goal campaign last season, so the goal-scoring ought to continue, but he had a low on-ice shooting percentage, which suggests that regression could bring a few more assists his way, which should put him in the 55-to-60-point range.

Conor Garland

An undersized winger who was acquired from Arizona, Garland had a brilliant start to his Canucks career, scoring eight points in his first six games, then finished his first season with 16 points in his last 12 games. In between, the production was a little spotty, but in total, Garland finished with a career-high 52 points to go with excellent puck possession numbers. Even though the 26-year-old is on the smaller side, he has a relentless style of play that earned him a place in the league and coupled with his offensive production, Garland is now a primary scorer. He produced a career-high 52 points last season and should be able to surpass 50 points again this season.

Ilya Mikheyev

In his first couple of seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Mikheyev established that he could control play and generate shots, but had trouble finishing, tallying 15 goals in 93 games, scoring on just 7.3% of his shots. Last season, the puck started to find the net and Mikheyev scored 21 goals in 53 games, burying 14.3% of his shots. Tthat helped increase his demand in the free agent market. At 6-foot-3, Mikheyev has the size to cycle the puck in the offensive zone but he is an excellent skater so he can use that both in transition or on the forecheck to create chances. Now that he has shown some touch around the net, he ought to be able to contribute in a middle six role for Vancouver. The question about Mikheyev is whether he can stay healthy – in two of his three seasons he has missed substantial time with injuries – so in terms of projecting his offense going forward, it might be most reasonable to say that Mikheyev could surpass last season’s 32 points, his career high, and potentially by a wide margin if he plays something close to a full schedule.

Nils Hoglander

Although he went through some offensive dry spells and managed just 18 points in 60 games last season, there is still plenty of reason to like Hoglander’s contributions. The 21-year-old winger drives play consistently and can generate shots. It just so happened that pucks were not going in and he went through a horrid slump in the middle of the season. From mid-December through the end of February, Hoglander played in 26 games and managed one goal and four points. He is an easy candidate for a bounce-back season but where he plays in the lineup will have some say in just how big of a bounce-back is possible. Hoglander should be able to score 15 goals and 30 points, as a starting point, but has potential for more depending on how high he fits on the depth chart.

Vasily Podkolzin

The 21-year-old got off to a relatively slow start to his rookie campaign last season, scoring three goals with no assists in his first 15 games, but he got more comfortable as the season progressed and finished the year with nine points in his last 11 games. Podkolzin has good size and has power forward potential. He plays a reliable enough game without the puck so that should help secure a spot in the lineup, but if he is going to grow into possibly become a star quality player, Podkolzin will need to generate more shots but if he can pick up where he left off at the end of last season, Podkolzin’s second season could be exciting. The Canucks are deep on the wings, so optimism around Podkolzin ought to be cautious, but he could challenge for 20 goals if he can get enough ice time.

Tanner Pearson

The 30-year-old winger has two 20-goal and three 40-point seasons to his credit. He has decent size and speed, enough skill to fit in a middle six role but, as noted, the Canucks have a lot of bodies competing for playing time on the wings and it’s possible that Pearson could find it challenging to earn a regular spot in the top nine. Nevertheless, he has been able to produce more than 30 points five times in his career, including last season, and that’s probably a reasonable expectation for what he could score this season.

DEFENSE

Quinn Hughes

Any concern about Hughes’ play without the puck tends to be overblown because he is such an elite creator of offense that he tends to generate more shots and chances than he gives up. He is also not a terrible defender, as some other puck-moving defensemen might get classified. Hughes will turn 23 early in the season and he is a fantastic skater who plays with confidence and creativity. He is every bit the kind of player that a team should seek to build their defense around and, while there is obviously strong competition, a Norris Trophy at some point in his career is not out of the question for Hughes. As for his point production, Hughes finished with a career-high 68 points last season but going for 70-plus points this season would still be a fair expectation.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

While there is little chance that Ekman-Larsson’s production will match his lofty contract, the 31-year-old delivered a solid first season in Vancouver after spending the first 11 years of his career in Arizona. He played more than 22 minutes per game for the 10^th time in the past 11 seasons and his per-game shot rate improved over the previous season. He might be a fringy top-pair defenseman at this stage of his career, but Ekman-Larsson could still be a strong top-four option. His percentages were relatively low last season so a little favorable regression could push him over 30 points this season.

Tyler Myers

Even at 6-foot-8 Myers is a smooth skater and while he will have moments in which his reads or positioning can get him into trouble, he is still a viable top-four defenseman. His relative possession numbers are a small negative and the Canucks have been outscored by 12 goals over three seasons with Myers on the ice during 5-on-5 play. It’s not great, and probably not worth his salary cap hit, but it’s not as terrible as critics would suggest. The 32-year-old is not asked to contribute as much offensively as he did earlier in his career, so he may score 20-25 points but he was also one of 11 defensemen to have at least 140 hits and 140 blocked shots last season so he can fill the stat sheet in other ways.

Luke Schenn

At 32-years-old, the veteran blueliner seemed to find his niche as a partner to Hughes. Schenn’s 17 points last season was his most since 2011-2012, and his average ice time of 17:13 was his highest since 2016-2017. Schenn is not good with the puck on his stick, so he is a good partner for Hughes, in that he Schenn offers complementary skills that Hughes does not typically bring to the game. While his puck skills may be limited, Schenn is not shy about bringing a physical presence to the game. He recorded 273 hits last season, the fifth time in his career that he surpassed 250 hits in a season, and Schenn will drop the gloves when needed. A 15-point season is about all that can be reasonably expected from Schenn offensively.

GOALTENDING

Thatcher Demko

It’s finally looking like Vancouver is ready for the Thatcher Demko show. After a handful of seasons in which the Pacific Division club kept the American-born netminder splitting his net with veteran mentors, Demko made his starter debut in the 2021-22 season with a 64-game campaign. He held his own, too; while the Canucks are still desperately working their way out from under some truly ill-advised contracts and roster transactions, his numbers were good enough to rise up above the Western Conference’s glut of rebuilding rosters and return to the Wild Card chase.

Much of that is thanks to the fact that Demko has continued to fine-tune the more controlled elements of his game without losing the creative spark that made him look so attractive as a prospect; he’s eliminated a lot of unnecessary extra movement as he learns to read shooters and systems at the NHL level, but has kept that wide-ranging toolkit of unexpected stop selections in his arsenal that make him so hard for offensive systems to read in return. Add in some smart depth management to go with intimidating size, and Demko shines as an example of a goaltender who can both close off holes in his net from a sightline perspective and react effectively to the high-danger chances that teams create for themselves when the defense in front of him struggles a bit. Now, the only thing that lacks certainty in Vancouver’s crease is who will emerge as his second-in-command; with both Mikey DiPietro and Spencer Martin hovering at the door to the NHL in the team’s depth chart and Jaroslav Halak departing for the New York Rangers in the off-season, the Canucks will have to determine who provides the club with their best chances for success moving forward.

Projected starts: 60-65

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Mason Marchment, Alex Tuch, Jared McCann, Valeri Nichushkin, Michael Bunting, and more players with increasing fantasy value.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 04 Feb 2022 18:59:06 +0000

Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, the Florida Panthers are a rising tide that lifts all ships, including Mason Marchment. Alex Tuch, Jared McCann, Valeri Nichushkin, Michael Bunting, and more players with increasing fantasy value.

TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 19: Florida Panthers left wing Mason Marchment (17) skates in the third period of the NHL game between the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning on October 19, 2021 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Florida Panthers left winger Mason Marchment exploded into the fantasy consciousness this week with a six-point game at Columbus, lifting him to 23 points (8 G, 15 A) in 22 games this season. For added value, Marchment also has 51 hits in those 22 games, and has a good thing going with rookie center Anton Lundell and right winger Sam Reinhart. While there is reason to be optimistic about Marchment as a legitimate contributor in fantasy, note that his on-ice shooting percentage of 14.7% is very high and not likely to sustain at that level. Given his physical contributions, though, Marchment still has fantasy appeal even if he isn’t likely to continue scoring at a point-per-game pace.

#2 Aside from Marchment, forwards that are likely to see some regression in their numbers based on inflated 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentages: Ryan Hartman (14.4%), Kirill Kaprizov (13.7%), Mark Stone (13.6%), Mats Zuccarello (13.4%), Rem Pitlick (13.3%), Max Pacioretty (13.2%), Anton Lundell (13.1%), Nazem Kadri (13.0%), and Tom Wilson (12.9%). Keep your eyes on the top lines in Minnesota and Vegas because, as skilled as they are, it can be difficult to maintain such lofty percentages.

#3 On the other hand, some skilled forwards that could be looking at better results because, so far, they have had a low on-ice shooting percentage: Brock Boeser (4.4%), Kevin Hayes (4.8%), Filip Zadina (4.8%), James van Riemsdyk (5.1%), Kyle Palmieri (5.2%), Sean Monahan (5.3%), Nils Hoglander (5.4%), Mike Hoffman (5.4%), William Karlsson (5.5%), and Elias Pettersson (5.5%). Players with a low on-ice shooting percentage tend to make good trade targets because the perception of their value is diminished.

#4 Since the NHL schedule pause in December, the Florida Panthers have been a high-octane attack, averaging 4.88 goals/60 in all situations in 18 games played during that span. The team with the second-highest goal-scoring rate in that time is the Toronto Maple Leafs (4.35 G/60), more than a half-goal per 60 minutes behind the Panthers. The Minnesota Wild (4.27), Carolina Hurricanes (3.87), and Pittsburgh Penguins (3.81) round out the top five teams.

#5 A big piece of the trade that sent Jack Eichel to the Vegas Golden Knights, Alex Tuch has really responded to his increased role with the Buffalo Sabres. A native of Syracuse, New York, Tuch has produced 13 points (5 G, 8 A) along with 37 shots on goal while averaging 19:46 time on ice in 13 games for the Sabres. He has combined with Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner to give the Sabres a legitimately dangerous top line.

SEATTLE, WA - JANUARY 25: Seattle Kraken left wing Jared McCann (16) handles the puck during an NHL game between the Nashville Predators and the Seattle Kraken on January 25, 2022 at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Jeff Halstead/Icon Sportswire)

#6 One of the best selections by the Seattle Kraken in the expansion draft, Jared McCann has tied a career high with 19 goals in just 41 games. He is scoring on 18.1% of his shots, which is a tad high, but McCann could also play more than the 16:04 average time on ice per game he has been getting with Seattle.

#7 After signing a big free agent deal in Calgary in the summer, Blake Coleman struggled to produce offensively, but he was starting to round into form heading into the All-Star break, putting up nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 30 shots on goal in his last 10 games. From the time he arrived in the league, Coleman has increased his fantasy value with his hit totals and 89 hits in 41 games this season gives him some of that added appeal now that his scoring numbers have picked up.

#8 In the past couple of seasons, Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin has established that he is an elite checking winger, with outstanding impact during 5-on-5 play, but he has not been a big scorer. That has changed somewhat this season. He has missed time, playing in just 28 games, but Nichushkin has 23 points (12 G, 11 A) and 75 shots on goal while playing a career high 18:14 per game. That shot rate is climbing, too – 52 in his past 16 games works out to 3.25 per game.

#9 The Toronto Maple Leafs have tried other combinations of forwards, but it turns out that their best option to skate on the left side with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the top line is Michael Bunting, the 26-year-old who is still a rookie. In his past 23 games, Bunting has chipped in 21 points (9 G, 12 A) and 20 of those points have at even strength. His ability to do things that his linemates can’t makes him a strong fit in that spot.

#10 When Toronto Maple Leafs winger Ilya Mikheyev asked for a trade in the offseason, the Maple Leafs declined to take him up on that request and had high hopes for him for the 2021-2022 season, but that was stalled when he suffered a broken thumb in the preseason. Mikheyev played one game in mid-December before the schedule pause but in the dozen games since, he has 10 points (7 G, 3 A) and 37 shots on goal. For a player who was a notoriously poor finisher in his previous two seasons, Mikheyev is starting to find the net and raising the price of his value on the upcoming free agent market.

#11 The Vegas Golden Knights just signed defenseman Brayden McNabb to a three-year contract extension and while McNabb is not a typical fantasy darling because he does not register a lot of points – he has finished with more than 16 points once in his career – McNabb does have some deep league appeal because he is a consistent source of hits and blocked shots. McNabb has averaged a combined 4.72 hits plus blocked shots per game this season, which ranks 10^th among defensemen that have appeared in at least 20 games.

#12 The nine defensemen ahead of McNabb in combined hits plus blocked shots per game: Radko Gudas (5.89), Alexander Romanov (5.32), Luke Schenn (5.30), Rasmus Ristolainen (5.17), Jacob Trouba (5.11), Connor Murphy (4.93), Darnell Nurse (4.91), Mario Ferraro (4.90), and Erik Cernak (4.76).

#13 After scoring 65 points in 2017-2018, Arizona Coyotes winger Clayton Keller has stumbled along for the past three seasons, well behind that rate of production. It seems that he might have turned the corner this season, even as the Coyotes languish near the bottom of the league. In his past 29 games, Keller has 32 points (14 G, 18 A) and 90 shots on goal.

#14 Veteran Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner scored 30 goals during the 2015-2016 season but has not scored more than 18 goals in any other season. This season, Jenner is up to 18 goals after producing 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 35 shots on goal in the last 11 games before the All-Star break. He is not recording hits at the same level as he did earlier in his career, when he had four 200-hit seasons, but Jenner’s improved goal-scoring and shot rate still makes him a valuable contributor.

#15 The Los Angeles Kings have tried to focus on improving their team speed and it is starting to pay off. Winger Viktor Arvidsson, who they acquired from Nashville in the offseason, has really picked up his play in 2022. In his past 15 games, Arvidsson has delivered 15 points (7 G, 8 A) along with 59 shots on goal. Alex Iafallo is another speedy winger who has had an impact on the Kings’ improving playoff fortunes. Averaging a career-high 2.87 shots on goal per game, Iafallo has 28 points (14 G, 14 A) in 45 games, which puts him well within striking distance of his career high of 17 goals, set in 2019-2020.

#16 As the New York Islanders are the only team in the league that has yet to play 40 games, they do offer more potential value for the rest of the NHL season. One player to consider for the Isles is center Brock Nelson, who has been heating up with nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 20 shots on goal in the past nine games. The five-time 20-goal scorer has 14 goals in 30 games this season.

#17 A left winger that looked like good value on the free agent market last summer (as compared to big-ticket signing Zach Hyman, for example), Brandon Saad has been quietly effective with the St. Louis Blues. Saad has nine points (3 G, 6 A) in his past eight games and is up to 25 points (15 G, 10 A) in 40 games.

#18 There have been lots of rumors about the Arizona Coyotes dealing defenseman Jakob Chychrun, who has not been terribly productive this season, managing 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in 34 games. This after finishing with a career high 18 goals and 41 points in 56 games last season. Presumably, the opportunity to play for a more competitive team would work in Chychrun’s favor but it is noteworthy that Shayne Gostisbehere has been putting up numbers for the Coyotes this season, accumulating 28 points (8 G, 20 A) in 45 games, which is tied for 16^th among defensemen.

#19 Another defenseman who has term left on his contract but could be available on the trade market is Montreal Canadiens veteran Jeff Petry, who may have had the best season of his career in 2020-2021, producing 42 points (12 G, 30 A) in 55 games. This season has been an entirely different story for Petry, as he shockingly has just six points (1 G, 5 A) in 37 games. As a player that tends to contribute to peripheral fantasy hockey categories like hits and blocked shots, too, Petry had plenty of fantasy value when he was scoring but right now, not so much.

#20 The hunt for goaltending at this stage of the season does not offer a lot of options. I wrote last week about Ville Husso, Pavel Francouz, and Matt Murray, and their varying degrees of fantasy value, but also consider Los Angeles Kings goaltender Cal Petersen, who has not seized the starting job in the way that might have been expected, in part because Jonathan Quick played so well early in the season. However, Quick has slumped lately, posting a .873 save percentage in 10 games since the schedule pause, and Petersen is 6-1 with a .914 save percentage in his past seven appearances.

#21 While Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Petr Mrazek is not exactly pushing for the starting job, he will have an opportunity to play more as starter Jack Campbell has lost some measure of his early season excellence. Mrazek does have a .921 save percentage in four games since returning from the schedule pause while Campbell has a .891 save percentage in nine games since returning from the December schedule pause.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Evgeni Malkin returns to action and Evander Kane might have a new team soon. Jared McCann, Nico Hischier, Clayton Keller, Trevor Moore and more

Scott Cullen — Sat, 15 Jan 2022 22:57:13 +0000

Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Evgeni Malkin returns to action and Evander Kane might have a new team soon. Jared McCann, Nico Hischier, Clayton Keller, Trevor Moore and more.

PITTSBURGH, PA - MARCH 09: Pittsburgh Penguins Center Evgeni Malkin (71) handles the puck during the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Rangers on March 9, 2021, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The Pittsburgh Penguins have waited patiently and finally had Evgeni Malkin make his season debut this week after a long recovery from knee surgery. He has taken his place on Pittsburgh’s first power play unit and is centering Jeff Carter and Kasperi Kapanen. While injuries have plagued Malkin throughout much of his career, he is still averaging 1.17 points per game since 2017-2018, the seventh highest rate in the league in that time.

#2 After the San Jose Sharks waived left winger Evander Kane for the purposes of terminating his contract, the door was open for Kane to sign with any team as a free agent. The Edmonton Oilers may be the landing spot most loudly rumored. That would obviously present a beneficial opportunity for Kane, who might even get to play with Connor McDavid. Alas, before the deal could even get signed, the league was reportedly investigating another potential COVID-19 protocol violation from Kane and that has put any signing on pause.

#3 If you can get past the off-ice issues, of which there are many, Kane has been a very productive player. In the three seasons prior to this one, Kane was tied for sixth among left wingers with 78 goals. He was tied with Tom Wilson for most penalty minutes among forwards (317) and his 405 hits ranked 13^th among left wingers. Kane’s 678 shots on goal in that span ranked third among left wingers. The shots and goals are difference makers in most fantasy leagues, the hits and penalty minutes are typically in the realm of banger-style leagues. Of course, he comes with more risk than the average player for a lot of reasons but, for fantasy purposes, he does have higher upside than the standard waiver wire addition.

#4 Seattle Kraken center Jared McCann had a breakthrough season for the Penguins last year, stepping into a bigger opportunity when Malkin was injured, and he has continued producing with the expansion Kraken. In his past five games, he has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 21 shots on goal and is up to 15 goals in 31 games. He has emerged as the No. 1 centre for the Kraken, which might even be better than was expected when he was selected in the expansion draft.

NEWARK, NJ - OCTOBER 04: New Jersey Devils center Nico Hischier (13) skates during the first period of the pre-season National Hockey League game between the New Jersey Devils and the Washington Capitals on October 4, 2021 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

#5 Nico Hischier was limited to 21 games last season and the New Jersey Devils captain started slowly this season, but he has been rounding into form. In the past 23 games, Hischier has 19 points (6 G, 13 A) and 43 shots on goal. Pavel Zacha has been his most consistent linemate this season, though Jesper Bratt, Tomas Tatar, and Jimmy Vesey have skated with Hischier, too. With Jack Hughes picking up the scoring pace, the Devils are starting to see what could happen as their top two centers start to reach their offensive potential.

#6 Goals don’t come easily for the Arizona Coyotes. Their 2.15 goals per 60 minutes ranks 31^st, ahead of only the Montreal Canadiens (2.07), and yet Clayton Keller has really started to hit his stride offensively. In the past 18 games, Keller has 20 points (9 G, 11 A) and 61 shots on goal while averaging 20:49 of ice time per game. He is widely available in fantasy leagues and while the Coyotes are likely to shed some veteran talent before the trade deadline, Keller might just hang around and play big minutes on a bad team for the rest of the season.

#7 Point production has been inconsistent for Blake Coleman in his first season with the Calgary Flames, but the hard-driving winger does offer fantasy value in other categories, too. He had finished 2021 with one point in 14 games but in 2022 he has four points (2 G, 2 A) to go with 24 shots on goal and 15 hits in five games. As a player with multiple 20-goal and multiple 200-hit seasons, Coleman has sufficient fantasy upside.

#8 All of the schedule changes this season have resulted in a dramatic difference in terms of games played, so a team like the New York Islanders figures to offer more appeal going forward. The Islanders have played just 29 games, 10 fewer than the teams with the most games played. Mathew Barzal is the obvious target on the Islanders but, in deeper leagues, consider Oliver Wahlstrom, who has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 24 shots on goal in the past nine games, and Kieffer Bellows, who has eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past eight games.

#9 The Ottawa Senators are another team that has played fewer games, with game No. 30 coming Thursday night in Calgary. Drake Batherson and Brady Tkachuk are the more obvious targets for the Sens but consider winger Alex Formenton, whose role is increasing, and he has produced nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 24 shots on goal in his past 10 games.

#10 If the Islanders and Sens are teams to target because they are low on the games played list, it stands to reason that the team that have played more might come with a buyer beware tag. Those teams include the Anaheim Ducks, Vegas Golden Knights, and Tampa Bay Lightning. Beware Ducks veteran center Ryan Getzlaf, who had a productive start to the season but has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past 13 games.

#11 The Golden Knights appear to be a team on the rise but there is some reason to be cautious with them, too. Chandler Stephenson, for example, has 36 points (10 G, 26 A) in 38 games. That includes seven points (1 G, 6 A) and 12 shots on goal in the past 11 games but that is not the real reason to worry about Stephenson’s production the rest of the way. The bigger concern is what will happen to his ice time once Jack Eichel is ready to play next month. There may be other line shuffling opportunities for the Golden Knights but if Stephenson drops from the top line to make room for Eichel, that could obviously impact his offensive upside.

#12 Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brady Skjei is experiencing an offensive surge, putting up eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 21 shots on goal in his past six games. That shot rate is very encouraging and Skjei has a chance to have his best offensive output since scoring 39 points as a rookie in 2016-2017.

#13 Calgary Flames defenseman Oliver Kylington had a breakthrough early in the season and was a hot commodity in fantasy circles but is available in more leagues now. He has seven points (1 G, 6 A) in his past 13 games but 33 shots on goal in that time is a decent indicator that Kylington’s production should continue at a reasonably high level.

#14 When Trevor Moore scored 23 points (10 G, 13 A) in 56 games last season, that counted as the best season of his career. The Los Angeles Kings winger then opened this season with zero points in 11 games. Time has brought about new opportunity, though, and Moore is now skating with Phillip Danault and Viktor Arvidsson on the Kings’ second line and Moore has produced 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 23 shots on goal in the past seven games.

#15 Florida Panthers defenseman Radko Gudas has long been a fantasy sleeper, but it bears repeating that his hit totals can be a major factor. Since the beginning of December, Gudas is averaging 4.2 hits per game, tops among defensemen that have played at least 10 games in that span. (Edmonton’s Markus Niemelainen had 5.1 hits per game in seven games.)

#16 Other defensemen bringing the boom, with the most hits per game since the start of December, include Montreal’s Alexander Romanov (4.1), Vancouver’s Luke Schenn (4.0), Nashville’s Mark Borowiecki (4.0), Columbus’ Andrew Peeke (3.4), and Seattle’s Jeremy Lauzon (3.4).

#17 A prime fantasy category for defensemen is blocked shots and given its nature as a peripheral type of statistic, sometimes it’s an area which might offer some undervalued players. Chicago’s Connor Murphy (3.0 blocks per game), St. Louis’ Colton Parayko (2.9), Vegas’ Brayden McNabb (2.8), and Montreal’s David Savard (2.8) are the per-game blocked shot leaders since the start of December. Savard and Murphy are both averaging more than 2.4 hits per game in that span, too.

#18 Sometimes it can be hard to find goaltending value at this stage of the fantasy season. Usually, the safe and reliable options are taken but short-term value can come from backup goaltenders getting a chance due to injuries. Some of the best backups this season include Anaheim’s Anthony Stolarz (.929 SV%) and Minnesota’s Kaapo Kahkonen (.915 SV%) who have had some opportunity to play a bit more recently.

#19 Dallas’ Jake Oettinger was not a starter at the beginning of the season, but it sure appears that is the path the Stars have now chosen. Oettinger has earned it, with a .923 save percentage in 17 games.

#20 If there is a backup goaltender who might get a shot at the starting role it is Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner. It is possible that the Oilers make a trade for a more established veteran but, if not, 23-year-old Skinner has a .916 save percentage in 10 appearances for the Oilers this season in addition to a .925 save percentage in eight AHL games. Given the struggles of Mikko Koskinen and injury woes plaguing Mike Smith, Skinner might have some potential to steal the starting job. It is at least enough to make him worth monitoring.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

2015 Training Camp Round-up – Oct 2nd

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 02 Oct 2015 18:20:48 +0000

Teams don't have to comply with the 23-man roster limit until Tuesday, but some aren't waiting that long to make the toughest calls.

The Chicago Blackhawks in particular made some surprising moves Friday afternoon by waiving Bryan Bickell and sending Marko Dano to the minors.

Dano was acquired by the Blackhawks this summer as part of the Brandon Saad deal and he's coming off of an encouraging season that involved him recording 21 points in 35 contests with Columbus. He initially looked like a good bet to make the squad and even now it wouldn't be surprising to see him earn a regular spot with Chicago before the end of the campaign. In fact, it wouldn't be shocking if Chicago ended up summoning him before the season opener, although that would naturally raise questions about why he was cut in the first place.

The decision to waive Bickell is getting more attention though. After all, he still has two campaigns left on his four-year, $16 million deal. Chicago does get some cap relief if he's stashed in the minors, but the new CBA prevents the Blackhawks from completely or even mostly washing their hands of his cap hit via a demotion. The ideal scenario for Chicago would likely involve Bickell being claimed, but in the current climate it would be somewhat surprising to see that happen.

It is worth noting that Bickell took part in Friday's practice despite being waived and while that kind of thing isn't unheard of, it is possible that Chicago is simply exploring its options. The Blackhawks might want to get things ready for the possibility of sending him to the minors, but haven't made the decision yet. And if it leads to him getting claimed, then Chicago would likely view that as a pleasant surprise.

Another high profile player - at least by virtue of his contract - exposed to waivers on Friday was Colin Greening. He inked a three-year, $7.95 million deal with Ottawa that runs through 2016-17 and that's quickly turned into a terrible deal. He only played in 26 games with Ottawa last season and was limited to a single point - a far cry from his 37-point rookie showing in 2011-12. Now at the age of 29, it's looking increasingly unlikely that Greening will ever live up to his early promise.

While Bickell and Greening aren't likely to get claimed on waivers, the Philadelphia Flyers have already lost someone to the system (Chris Porter) and are in danger of surrendering another before their season opener. In Philadelphia, the battle for the final defensive spot seems to be down to Brandon Manning and Luke Schenn, but if the Flyers put Manning on waivers, he would likely be taken.

Schenn might not be claimed though given his $3.6 million cap hit for the 2015-16 campaign. That being said, the Flyers preference would be to solve the logjam with a trade if they can. The other option is that Philadelphia could cut forward Scott Laughton and simply carry more defensemen, but that seems less likely to happen.

As Philadelphia mulls its next move, the New York Rangers have become one of the first to get their roster set for the start of the regular season. The Rangers placed Raphael Diaz and Jayson Megna on waivers, bringing their roster to 23 players, assuming both of them are sent to the minors if they clear.

That means Dylan McIlrath is now projected to be a part of the New York Rangers' opening game roster. The 23-year-old defenseman was taken with the 10th overall pick of the 2010 NHL Entry Draft and has only appeared in three NHL games. To put that into context, the next lowest player in terms of NHL games played from that year's top-10 is Brett Connolly, who has appeared in 139 contests.

McIlrath would have needed to be exposed to waivers if he didn't make the team, which meant that this might have been his final chance to secure a roster spot as a member of the Rangers' organization. Even now though, he needs to continue to climb as he's likely to start the season as New York's seventh defenseman.

On the injury front, the Detroit Red Wings have lost Danny DeKeyser for the next three-to-four weeks due to a sprained ligament in his foot. That's particularly unfortunate for the Red Wings as it further delays his ability to work with newcomer Mike Green, who is returning from a groin injury. Green will likely play alongside Xavier Ouellet for now.