Philip Danault – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Marner and Tavares Leading Maple Leafs, Ducks Battling and More

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 23 Nov 2024 15:51:24 +0000

_{TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 03: Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitchell Marner (16) skates with the puck during the NHL Hockey match between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs on December 3rd, 2022 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)}

In fantasy play, we try to look for any advantage we can, so it’s always helpful if there are reliable factors that we can consider that might impact a game's outcome. For example, all else being equal, a rested team should have an advantage over a tired one, right? That’s an easy assumption to make, but I wondered how reliable a factor that was, so I looked into it.

Teams on the second half of a back-to-back have a 31-40-6 record this season, but that’s a fairly small sample size for this kind of thing, so let’s take the results of every game dating back to the 2005-06 campaign. Looking at that, the record for teams playing on no rest is 3,560-3,394-943. If you count overtime/shootout losses among the defeats, that’s a .451 winning percentage, which is statistically relevant, but not dramatic.

What about playing on the road? That’s another obvious disadvantage, but how serious of a burden is it? Dating back to 2005-06, the road team has a 10,460-9,834-2,698 record, which is a .455 winning percentage. In other words, playing on the road is only a slightly smaller burden than playing on no rest. While we’re at it, let’s combine the two: A road team playing on no rest has a winning percentage of just .425 (2,298-2,464-640). So if you really want to bank on a team underperforming relative to their average, then taking a team on the second half of a back-to-back on the road is the way to go.

In the reverse, is there an ideal amount of rest for a team? Teams that had one day off between games have a winning percentage of .508 (12,265-9,101-2,759), two days is .521 (4,368-3,051-962), three days is .501 (1,106-845-255) and four or more days is .493 (1,034-822-242), so two days rest between games is the sweet spot, but difference in those winning percentages isn’t significant.

Ultimately, believing a team on the road or a tired squad will underperform is going to prove to be a fair assessment often, but it’s not a magic bullet. By the same token, key injuries don’t always lead to the results we might anticipate. The Avalanche certainly struggled early in the campaign when they had far more than their fair share of players on the shelf, but recently, the Maple Leafs have been defying expectations.

At the time of writing, Toronto is now 6-1-0 without Auston Matthews this season. On Wednesday, Toronto was missing Max Domi (lower body), Calle Jarnkrok (groin), David Kampf (lower body), Max Pacioretty (lower body) and Ryan Reaves (suspension) in addition to Matthews (upper body), and Toronto still managed to beat Vegas 3-0. To be fair, the Golden Knights had injuries of their own at the time of the contest, most notably to Mark Stone (lower body), but they were the healthier team and a top-tier contender, so the Maple Leafs continuing to excel under those circumstances is impressive.

Mitch Marner has been a major factor in Toronto’s continued success, providing six goals and 26 points through 20 appearances, and the Vegas victory was his third straight multi-point showing. He’s never reached the 100-point milestone before, but he’s come close and might finally hit that mark this campaign. John Tavares has also stepped up recently, supplying four goals and eight points across six appearances, giving him nine goals and 19 points through 19 outings.

Both are also playing on an expiring contract, and there are questions about their future with the team. The lack of playoff success has led to frustration regarding Toronto’s model of building the squad around four extremely expensive forwards. Going into the campaign, there was an assumption that at the least, the 34-year-old Tavares would take a significant pay cut from his current $11 million cap hit in his next contract given his declining production. That might still happen, but his play so far this season suggests that talk of his decline might have been overstated, and, especially with the cap rising, he might still be able to command a sizable payday. Then there’s Marner, who presumably expects a raise from his $10.903 million cap hit and will likely get it with Toronto or elsewhere.

The Maple Leafs certainly have some big front office questions to answer, in the coming months, but at least on the ice, things seem to be going well for now despite the challenges.

Anaheim Ducks

Mon vs SEA, Wed @ SEA, Fri vs LAK, Sun vs OTT

The NHL schedule next week contains some very heavy dates: There will be 11 games Monday, 15 on Wednesday, 14 on Friday and 12 on Saturday. Due to that, a lot of teams are playing four times despite the league taking Thursday off for American Thanksgiving.

Every team featured will be playing in four games, starting with the Ducks, who will host Seattle on Monday, play in Seattle on Wednesday and then return to Anaheim for contests against the Kings on Friday and Senators on Sunday.

The Ducks were also a team I highlighted last week and noted the squad’s underwhelming offense, but going into Friday’s action, Anaheim is on a three-game winning streak in which it’s tallied a combined 13 goals.

Trevor Zegras has gotten in on the action, supplying a goal and three points over that span, which doubles his season point total to six. We discussed last week that he had been dealing with some bad puck luck and has been playing a more complete game despite his offensive woes, so perhaps everything is starting to come together for him. He’s an intriguing buy-low candidate, especially because Zegras continues to serve in a top-six capacity.

If you’re looking for the hottest forward on the Ducks, though, then Brett Leason is your man. He didn’t start the campaign was much of a role, even being a healthy scratch in five of six games from Oct. 27-Nov. 8, but he’s taken off with two goals and seven points across his last five outings. Leason has also averaged 15:00 of ice time, including 1:28 with the man advantage, across his past four appearances, so he’s finally getting a solid opportunity. The 25-year-old still isn’t likely to be a major offensive force for long -- you'd have to go back to his junior days to find the last time he was a major scorer -- but he’s providing some solid short-term value.

On the blueliner, Olen Zellweger has two goals and four points over his last three appearances, bringing him up to four goals and eight points across 17 outings in 2024-25. The 21-year-old is serving on the top power-play unit, but the Ducks rank 27th with the man advantage, converting just 15.3 percent of the time, so it’s not as good of a role as it could be. Still, Zellweger should at least breach the 30-point mark this year as long as he stays healthy.

Boston Bruins

Tue vs. VAN, Wed @ NYI, Fri vs. PIT, Sun vs. MTL

After three straight losses to drop their record to 8-9-3, the Bruins fired head coach Jim Montgomery and named Joe Sacco as the interim bench boss. Boston’s first game under Sacco saw the Bruins outshoot Utah 31-21 en route to a 1-0 victory. Joonas Korpisalo was in net for the shutout, improving to 4-2-1 with a 2.38 GAA and .911 save percentage in eight appearances. Given Jeremy Swayman’s struggles -- he has a 5-7-2 record, 3.47 GAA and .884 save percentage in 14 outings -- it'll be interesting to see if Sacco leans on Korpisalo more than his predecessor.

Next week, though, both goaltenders will likely see use given the packed schedule. The Bruins will host the Canucks on Tuesday, play on the road against the Islanders on Wednesday and conclude the week with home tilts versus the Penguins and Canadiens on Friday and Sunday, respectively.

Swayman has been part of the problem in Boston, but the Bruins also rank 31st offensively with just 2.33 goals per game. David Pastrnak continues to lead the charge with eight goals and 18 points through 21 outings, but he’s the only player with at least 15 points. Meanwhile, Brad Marchand (five goals, 14 points) and Elias Lindholm (three goals, 10 points) are the only other two Bruins who have hit the double-digit mark. To put that into context, 200 players have at least 10 points through Thursday’s action, which averages out to 6.25 players per team, so Boston is far behind the curve in terms of its scoring depth.

He's probably not the answer, but I am interested to see if Sacco tries to get Tyler Johnson into games. The 34-year-old forward has appeared in just five contests in 2024-25, averaging 13:31 of ice time in those outings. Although he hasn’t recorded a point this year, Johnson has proved in the past to be a decent secondary scorer, so maybe he could do some damage from the third line if given a chance to get into a rhythm by playing regularly.

Outside of that, though, the Bruins just really need more out of players who were already getting opportunities. The issue for Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha isn’t a lack of ice time, it’s just that they haven’t put up points with any regularity. Coyle has just four goals and an assist through 21 outings after recording 60 points in 2023-24. Zacha has three goals and seven points, but after showing some life from Nov. 7-12 (two goals and four points in three games), he’s on a four-game point drought.

Maybe the answer is simply to just some forward groupings and stick with it for a while. Coyle’s most common linemates this campaign are Marchand and Morgan Geekie, but that trio has only shared the ice for 11.9 percent of Coyle’s even-strength minutes. That’s a lot of line mixing, which might lead to an inability to develop chemistry. It’s something to monitor as we see what Sacco’s plans are to reverse the Bruins’ fortunes.

Los Angeles Kings

Mon @ SJS, Wed vs. WPG, Fri @ ANA, Sat vs. OTT

The Kings will start the week on the road against San Jose on Monday but return home to host the Jets on Wednesday. LA will then play in Anaheim on Friday and host the Senators on Saturday.

The Kings have seen modest success with their 10-7-3 record, but they have dropped three of their past four games, recording just seven goals over that stretch.

Quinton Byfield is among the cold forwards with only an assist across his past five outings. He has two goals and nine points through 20 appearances overall. Interestingly, he hasn’t recorded a single point on the power play in 2024-25 despite averaging a solid 2:07 of ice time with the man advantage. LA does rank 29th in power-play conversions at 14.3 percent, so that is an obvious factor, but you’d still expect at least some production there. Byfield’s 5.3 shooting percent is also a sharp drop from his 12.4 percent in 2023-24 -- he finished that campaign with 20 goals and 55 points -- so the young forward might have been somewhat unlucky through the first quarter of the season. Don’t be surprised if his production ticks up as the campaign progresses.

Philip Danault also has struggled to find the back of the net, tallying a single goal through 20 appearances, though he does have nine assists. His 3.2 shooting percentage is far below his 12.3 average from 2021-22 through 2023-24, so Danault is another LA forward who could enjoy an increase in production.

At the other end of the spectrum, Adrian Kempe is red hot, supplying four goals over his past three games (LA has totaled just six total goals in that span), bringing him up to nine markers and 18 points through 20 appearances. Even there, though, Kempe has just three power-play points. LA did far better with the man advantage in 2023-24, ranking 12th with a 22.6 success rate, so these players could see an increase in special-teams points.

Minnesota Wild

Mon vs. WPG, Wed @ BUF, Fri vs. CHI, Sat vs. NSH

One team that’s had no offensive issues -- or any issues, really -- is Minnesota. The Wild have won three of their past four games, improving to 13-3-3. They’ll look to keep the good times rolling when they host another high-end squad in Winnipeg on Monday. From there, Minnesota will play in Buffalo on Wednesday before returning home to play the Blackhawks on Friday and the Predators on Saturday.

Filip Gustavsson continues to be a key part of the Wild’s success with his 9-3-2 record, 2.07 GAA and .926 save percentage through 14 appearances. He’s allowed two or fewer goals in each of his past five starts. Marc-Andre Fleury, by contrast, isn’t turning heads with his play, but the 39-year-old has been a capable backup with a 4-0-1 record, 2.76 GAA and .904 save percentage in five starts.

Up front, Kirill Kaprizov is on a seven-game scoring streak with six goals and 13 points in that span, bringing him up to 13 goals and 34 points through 19 appearances in 2024-25. Even with his $9 million annual cap hit, he’s providing tremendous value. Kaprizov’s contract runs through 2025-26, but by the time it expires, the Wild will be in a far better cap position because Zach Parise and Ryan Suter’s buyouts will be far smaller factors. The Wild have roughly $14.7 million in dead cap space this year, but Suter and Parise will generate a combined $1,666,666 in dead cap space annually from 2025-26 through 2028-29 before coming off the books entirely.

Paying Kaprizov top dollar when the time comes makes sense given his reliability as a top offensive threat. Someone who doesn’t factor onto the scoresheet nearly as regularly is Frederick Gaudreau, but the 31-year-old has been playing like an elite recently, providing four goals and 12 points across his past 11 appearances. Gaudreau is worth having in your lineup while he’s this hot, but don’t expect it to last, and keep in mind that even with his recent rise in production, he’s still serving in just a third-line capacity. He is also on the second power-play unit instead of the top one and hasn’t gotten a point yet with the man advantage.

New Jersey Devils

Mon vs. NSH, Wed vs. STL, Fri @ DET, Sat vs. WSH

We’ve already touched on a lot of players who haven’t put up noteworthy power-play numbers, so let’s shift to New Jersey, which ranks second with the man advantage with a 31.8 percent success rate.

The Devils will host the Predators on Monday and the Blues on Wednesday. They’ll then play in Detroit on Friday before returning home to face the Capitals on Saturday.

New Jersey’s power play and offense in general is certainly part of the reason the squad is 13-7-2. Defenseman Dougie Hamilton has played a significant role in that, providing two goals and 16 points, including seven with the man advantage, through 22 appearances. He was held off the scoresheet for the first six games of 2024-25 but has since recorded at least a point in 13 of 16 appearances.

Hamilton wasn’t much of a factor in 2023-24 due to injury, which led to Luke Hughes serving on the top power-play unit last year. Hamilton’s return to health means Hughes is averaging just 1:04 with the man advantage in 2024-25 and that’s eaten into the young blueliner’s production. The 21-year-old Hughes also missed New Jersey’s first nine outings because of a shoulder problem, which likely put him behind the curve. All this has led to him recording just two assists through 13 outings. Hughes might start to do better as he gets into a rhythm, but this is shaping up to be a sophomore slump campaign.

His elder brother, Jack Hughes, is doing just fine, though. He already has eight goals and 25 points through 22 appearances. The older Hughes is also red hot with six helpers across his past three outings, including five on the power play.

Of course, the Devils did just fine last season too and still missed the playoffs. The difference this year has been improved goaltending. Jacob Markstrom isn’t in Vezina Trophy contention, but he’s holding his own nicely with a 9-5-1 record, 2.54 GAA and .907 save percentage through 15 appearances. Jake Allen is also playing an arguably underrated role as the backup, providing a 4-2-1 record, 2.30 GAA and .916 save percentage in seven starts. Especially in a busy week, like the one upcoming, having two solid goaltenders is a huge luxury.

New York Islanders

Mon vs. DET, Wed vs. BOS, Fri @ WSH, Sat vs. BUF

The Islanders have two solid goaltenders too, though it hasn’t always felt that way this season. Ilya Sorokin has more-or-less fulfilled his end of the bargain with a 2.64 GAA and a .914 save percentage through 12 appearances, but Semyon Varlamov struggled early in the campaign. He has stabilized since, but that early damage has left him with a .903 save percentage, although his GAA has improved to a respectable 2.60.

Either way, it’s the offense that’s really the problem with the Islanders, and that’s what they’ll need more of next week. New York will host the Red Wings on Monday and the Bruins on Wednesday. They’ll then play in Washington on Friday and conclude the week with a home game versus the Sabres.

The Islanders have managed just four goals over their past three games and weirdly, Pierre Engvall scored two of them. Engvall had a three-game goal-scoring streak from Nov. 14-19, but the 28-year-old finished with just 10 goals and 28 points in 74 outings last season and has just five points through 12 outings in 2024-25 even after accounting for his recent hot streak, so don’t expect much from him going forward.

The player the Islanders really need to step up is Bo Horvat, but he’s been held off the scoresheet in five of his past six appearances, leaving him with five goals and 14 points through 20 outings. Those are abysmal numbers given his $8.5 million cap hit, but to be far, he’d usually get to play alongside Mathew Barzal, who hasn’t been in the lineup since Oct. 30 due to an upper-body injury. However, Barzal’s original timetable was 4-6 weeks, and there hasn’t been much in the way of updates, so you shouldn’t count on Horvat getting help from Barzal in the upcoming week.

Anders Lee is sometimes a great linemate. He has seven goals and 13 points in 20 outings in 2024-25, but he’s also streaky and is presently cold, having been held off the scoresheet in each of the Islanders’ past three games.

Then there’s Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who highlights the Islanders’ lack of depth. The 32-year-old forward is a fine forward, but he’s never recorded more than 43 points in a single campaign, so the fact that he’s on the top line and first power-play unit is far less than ideal. He has five goals and nine points through 20 appearances in 2024-25.

Horvat and Lee might heat up again, but the Islanders’ overall offensive situation isn’t likely to get a lot better until Barzal comes back.

New York Rangers

Mon vs. STL, Wed @ CAR, Fri @ PHI, Sat vs. MTL

The Islanders’ rivals, the Rangers, appear to be in a far better position. They have a 12-5-1 record and will look to build on that next week. The Rangers will host the Blues on Monday, play in Carolina on Wednesday and Philadelphia on Friday and finish the week by hosting the Canadiens on Saturday.

Artemi Panarin continues to be the Rangers’ top forward with 10 goals and 24 points in 18 appearances in 2024-25, but offensive depth has been a big part of the Rangers’ formula. They have eight players who have hit double digits in points: Panarin, Adam Fox, Alexis Lafreniere, Will Cuylle, Mika Zibanejad, Reilly Smith, Kaapo Kakko and Vincent Trocheck. As noted before, the average team has 6.25 players who have hit that milestone. On top of that, New York has two players -- Chris Kreider and Filip Chytil -- who are sitting at nine points.

Among those who have been at the forefront of the Rangers’ attack, Cuylle is arguably the biggest pleasant surprise. The 22-year-old has seven goals and 15 points through 18 appearances. He established himself as a regular with the team last campaign but was in the lineup primarily because of his gritty play, finishing the 2023-24 regular season with 13 goals, 21 points, 56 PIM and 249 hits. Cuylle has continued to utilize his size, dishing out 75 hits this season (he ranks fifth in that category), but he’s adding an offensive element to his game.

What makes it even more impressive is that he’s averaging a modest 13:50 of ice time and is rarely used with the man advantage -- although that might be changing as he has spent the past two games on the second unit. Among those averaging under 14 minutes, Cuylle leads the league in points, ahead of Carolina’s Eric Robinson (five goals, 13 points).

One word of caution, though: Cuylle’s 21.9 shooting percentage is likely unsustainable.

Seattle Kraken

Mon @ ANA, Wed vs. ANA, Fri @ SJS, Sat vs. SJS

The Kraken has a fairly easy schedule next week. They have a set of games against Anaheim on Monday and Wednesday followed by one against the Sharks on Friday and Saturday. In both cases, Seattle is on the road for the first half of the set and at home for the second.

Defenseman Vince Dunn (upper body) might end up returning at some point during those four games, but the status of forward Jordan Eberle (lower body) is less clear. By the time you read this, though, that might change. Kraken coach Dan Bylsma told Scott Malone on Friday that there would be an update later in the day, but at the time of writing, that update hadn’t arrived yet.

Dunn is likely to serve on the top four and first power-play unit when healthy, which might eat into Brandon Montour’s power-play time and result in Ryker Evans losing his spot on the second unit. However, just three of Montour’s 13 points and two of Evans’ 11 have come with the man advantage anyway, so that change shouldn’t have a dramatic impact on either blueliner’s production. Dunn’s return might help Seattle’s overall power play a bit, which sits at 23rd with a 16.4 conversion rate, which would modestly boost the value of Seattle’s top forwards.

Either way, Joey Daccord is likely to continue to be the key to Seattle’s success. He has a 9-3-1 record, 2.31 GAA and .923 save percentage in 13 appearances in 2024-25, putting him in the very early conversation for the Vezina Trophy. Daccord did rank fourth in save percentage (.916) and fifth in GAA (2.46) among goaltenders who logged at least 30 games last season, but his 19-18-11 record kept him well outside of the award conversation. If Seattle continues to provide him with at least some support this year -- the Kraken’s 2.85 goals per game isn’t magical, but it is a step up from 2.61 in 2023-24 -- then Daccord’s a fair bet to get over 30 wins this campaign, especially with Philipp Grubauer not exactly demanding a bigger share of the workload with his 1-6-0 record, 3.11 GAA and .881 save percentage through seven outings in 2024-25.

2024 NHL Playoff Preview: Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings

Robert Howard — Mon, 22 Apr 2024 19:23:41 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 28: Edmonton Oilers Right Wing Zach Hyman (18) battlesLos Angeles Kings Defenceman Matt Roy (3) and Los Angeles Kings Right Wing Adrian Kempe (9) for the puck in the first period of the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Los Angeles Kings on March 28 2024, at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings

Is it better to face the devil you know? The Oilers and Kings will find out when they meet for the third consecutive season in the playoffs. The Oilers prevailed in the first two meetings, producing a come from behind victory in a seven-game series in 2022, while requiring six-games to eliminate them in 2023. The Oilers won their head-to-head matchup in the season, winning three of four games with a relatively low scoring goal differential of 11 to 9. The Kings held the powerful Oilers to only 2.75 goals per game, and will carry anything they feel unresolved in two closely fought series, into this one with them. The Oilers are confident. The Kings will want revenge.

While the core players are deeply familiar with each other, both teams will have new leadership behind the bench. The Oilers made an early coaching change after stumbling out of the gate under Jay Woodcroft and replacing him with Kris Noblauch in November. The Kings hired Jim Hillier to replace Todd McLellan in February. Since the change, the Oilers produced the best record in the league (69GP-46W-18L-5OT) as McDavid returned to health and the offense surged. The Kings were ninth (35GP-21W-12L-1OT) under Hillier from February on and improved enough to secure a playoff spot. The biggest change he brought was in implementing a 1-3-1 defensive system, which tightened up a unit that seemed to struggle with consistency early, after a good start.

It is a classic battle between a potent offense and a stifling defense. Edmonton is one of the top offensive teams in the league, both at even strength (ranked 1^st with 3.2 xGF/60 at 5v5) and the powerplay (ranked 3^rd with 10.08 xGF/60 – 4^th at 26.3% overall). Los Angeles is one of the top defensive teams in the league and ranked fourth at both 5-on-5 (2.29 xGA/60) and the power play (2.29 xGA/60). It will feature two gifted scorers in centremen Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl against two elite shutdown pivots in Anze Kopitar and Philip Danault.

Knoblauch had success separating Draisaitl and McDavid for much of the season allowing them to drive their own lines, something that has been a challenge for past coaches. Uniting on a devastating power play, they represent the best one-two punch in the league. The supporting cast up front was bolstered by late season additions in Adam Henrique, Corey Perry and Sam Carrick. They have provided depth, and Henrique was enjoying a good season with Anaheim, bringing with him versatility as an excellent faceoff man and complementary winger in the top six of in a shutdown role on the third line.

Hillier has spread out the scoring across all four lines, deploying Kevin Fiala and Pierre Luc Dubois in the bottom six. Dubois has had a disappointing season, perhaps earning his spot on the fourth line, but did show signs of turning it around later in the season. Quinton Byfield enjoyed a breakout season at 21 years old but faded down the stretch. They are both improved but may be asking a lot for them to be difference makers in the playoffs.

Both teams have improved but there is still a sizable offensive advantage for the Oilers up front.

However, on defense, the Kings own the advantage, but it is mitigated by an improved Oilers group. Mattias Ekholm has had an outstanding season and provided the stability they were looking for when acquired at the trade deadline last year. He has allowed Evan Bouchard to blossom into a premier offensive defenseman, while contributing 45 points of his own, including 26 points in his last 30 games. The Oilers defense has been a question mark in the past. The Kings may not match that offensive firepower, but their top two pairings of Mikey Anderson and Drew Doughty along with Vladislav Gavrikov and Matt Roy are very effective defensively. As a foursome they are one of the more effective in the league at shutting the door when called upon. They will face tremendous pressure game in, game out in a long series against a hungry, lethal Oilers machine.

KEY MATCHUPS

McDavid and Draisaitl Vs. Danault and Kopitar – As discussed above, containing the dynamic duo, along with 50-goal scorer Zach Hyman will be critical to any hopes the Kings have. They have two of the best for the job.

The bottom six – LA has balanced their four lines with some scoring ability on each. Will the late season additions by the Oilers be enough to counter? Has Pierre Luc Dubois improved in the late season enough to be a factor in depth scoring? It could be a critical factor for the unsung crew to rise up on occasion if the Kings have success minimizing the damage up on the top two lines.

Cam Talbot Vs. Stuart Skinner – The sophomore versus the resurgent veteran. Cam Talbot has been a nice surprise in the net for the Kings. He is well supported by their strong system so only needs to be solid to be effective. Skinner and the Oilers goalies struggled early in the season, but he seemed to settle down after the coaching change and has been consistent, and reminiscent of his strong rookie season. Neither is expected to be the savior of their respective squad, but exceeding expectations for either of them would be a valuable boost.

X-FACTOR

Los Angeles - The ability of the Kings defensive system to slow the Oilers down in transition, clog up the neutral zone, and create turnovers. If they can frustrate the Oilers early and steal a game in Edmonton, the momentum along with experienced leadership with Stanley Cup rings in the room provide a path for the Kings.

Edmonton – How hungry is Connor McDavid for his first Stanley Cup ring? Now firmly settled in his prime and joined by the strongest supporting cast he has had yet; can he lead them home? He should answer affirmatively and, if possible, raise his game yet again, as the great ones do.

FANTASY PLAYERS TO TARGET

Edmonton – Outside of the big names, Warren Foegele has proven to be a staple on Leon Draisaitl right side and playing for a contract. He has shown consistent improvement and could be a surprise. Adam Henrique has not lit up the scoreboard in Edmonton like he did in Anaheim but is currently starting the series on Connor McDavid’s left wing. We have already mentioned Mattias Ekholm’s finish. It does not appear to be a fluke. He is playing that well.

Los Angeles – Looking at production since the coaching change Feb 2, Adriam Kempe has led the scoring with 32 points in 29 games followed by Kevin Fiala with 30 in 34 games, and Anze Kopitar finding his point a game ways again with 29 in 33 games. Quinton Byfield finished very quietly with nine points in 23 games. It might be asking a lot for a 21-year-old to be a difference maker with the stakes this high. Since March 1, Trevor Moore has 17 points in 23 games.

PREDICTION

This will be a hard-fought battle with familiarity likely to provide plenty of contempt. Edmonton’s offence will prove too much over the course of the series and should take it in six games.

All Stats courtesy of www.naturalstattrick.com

NHL: CULLEN – 20 Fantasy Points – Stephenson, Faber, Tippett, Lyon, Luukkonen, Daws and much, much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 19 Jan 2024 17:08:47 +0000

PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 05: Philadelphia Flyers Right Wing Owen Tippett (74) skates with the puck during the third period of the National Hockey League game between the New York Islanders and the Philadelphia Flyers on October 5, 2023, at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia PA. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, injuries are creating opportunities for Chandler Stephenson and Brock Faber, Owen Tippett is firing pucks, the season of unpredictable goaltending has turned attention to Alex Lyon, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Nico Daws, and much, much more!

#1 With both Jack Eichel and William Karlsson injured and out of the Las Vegas lineup, there is more opportunity available down the middle of the ice. Chandler Stephenson is the prime beneficiary, skating on the top line and first power play unit. Stephenson has four points (1 G, 3 A) in three games since Eichel is out week-to-week following lower-body surgery, which does give Stephenson more value. Nicolas Roy has also moved up the depth chart and has recorded three assists in the past three games, averaging more than 18 minutes of ice time per game.

#2 Minnesota Wild rookie defenceman Brock Faber has enjoyed a fantastic first season and is going to have more heavy lifting to do on the Wild blueline. Captain and standout defender Jared Spurgeon is out for the rest of the season following hip and back surgeries. That leaves even more responsibility for Faber, who has 10 points (1 G, 9 A) and 35 shots on goal while averaging more than 25 minutes of ice time per game in 16 games over the past month.

#3 Philadelphia Flyers winger Owen Tippett scored a pair of goals in Thursday’s 5-1 win against the Dallas Stars, the fifth straight win for a surging Flyers squad. Tippett now has six goals and 31 shots on goal in his past six games and since the calendar turned to 2024, Tippett leads the NHL with 15.42 shots on goal per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. He has been skating on the Flyers’ top line with Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny and is getting first-unit power play time. With this kind of production, Tippett should remain in this prime spot in the Philadelphia lineup.

#4 During a season in which goaltending has been a consistent point of concern, it makes complete sense that one of the best goaltenders in the NHL this season has been Alex Lyon, a 31-year-old who had started 31 games in his career prior to this season. Lyon has started 15 games for the Red Wings this season and has a .923 save percentage. He saved the Florida Panthers’ season last year and Lyon is doing something similar for the Red Wings this season.

#5 At the start of the season, the Buffalo Sabres were giving rookie netminder Devon Levi every opportunity to run with the starting goaltender job. Levi has a .889 save percentage in 19 games and has lost the starting job to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, the 24-year-old who has recorded back-to-back shutouts and has a .956 save percentage in his past six starts. It’s not as though Luukkonen has established long-term trustworthiness, but if you’re looking for goaltending at this point in the season, you probably have to take some risks.

#6 New Jersey’s goaltending has been such a disaster that they demoted Akira Schmid to the AHL and recalled Nico Daws. While the 23-year-old netminder has a 3-3 record in six starts for the Devils, Daws also has a .916 save percentage which is a massive upgrade over the work of Schmid and Vitek Vanecek this season.

#7 With Winnipeg Jets centre Mark Scheifele banged up, Adam Lowry has moved up the depth chart to play on the first line between Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi. Lowry has six points (1 G, 5 A) and 11 shots on goal in his past five games, the last two of which have been without Scheifele. Lowry tallied a career-high 36 points (13 G, 23 A) last season and with 23 points (8 G, 15 A) in 43 games this season, he is on pace to surpass that total.

#8 Los Angeles Kings centre Philip Danault was held without a point in Thursday’s 2-1 loss to Nashville, snapping a six-game point streak during which he had recorded eight points (2 G, 6 A). Danault is skating between Trevor Moore and Kevin Fiala, which is an upgrade in his typical offensive situation. Danault and Moore have played together a lot and Moore is enjoying the best season of his career, but Fiala is a proven point producer who has 110 points (33 G, 77 A) in 111 games with the Kings.

#9 Florida Panthers centre Sam Bennett is starting to heat up, perhaps not surprisingly as his right winger, Matthew Tkachuk, has emerged from his relatively slow start to the season. Since December 30, Bennett has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 24 shots on goal in nine games. Playing with Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe is a prime spot for Bennett to be a productive force, at least when he is healthy.

#10 Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin has entered the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, a potentially crushing blow for the Avalanche. Nichushkin was averaging 21:49 of ice time per game, which ranks fourth among forwards behind Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, and Nikita Kucherov. In his last month of action, Nichushkin played 15 games and put up 21 points (12 G, 9 A) with 58 shots on goal. His absence is going to leave a giant hole in the Avalanche lineup. Hard working Avs right winger Logan O’Connor is doing his part to increase his offensive output and has contributed eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past nine games.

#11 Detroit Red Wings right winger Patrick Kane suffered a lower-body injury and will be out of the lineup. The Red Wings insist that it is not a hip injury, which would obviously raise concerns after he had his surgery in the offseason. After a bit of a slow start with Detroit, Kane has 14 points (6 G, 8 A) and 43 shots on goal in his past 13 games. If you’re looking for a veteran Red Wings winger, consider David Perron, who has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 16 shots on goal in his past eight games.

#12 Ottawa Senators rookie centre Ridly Greig is picking up the scoring pace, making the most of the opportunity afforded to him by Josh Norris’ injury, producing six points (2 G, 4 A) with 12 shots on goal in his past five games. Greig has been bumped up the depth chart to skate between Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux on the Senators’ top line and while it might be ambitious to expect Greig to handle that responsibility already, he is probably the best option for now. Remember, suspended centre Shane Pinto is eligible to return to Ottawa’s lineup this weekend and that will give Ottawa more choices down the middle of the ice.

#13 Anaheim Ducks rookie defenceman Pavel Mintyukov is out with a separated shoulder and it has created an opportunity for another Ducks rookie blueliner. Jackson LaCombe is getting a taste of first unit power play action for Anaheim and has three assists in his past five games after recording four assists in the previous 35 games. It’s too soon to start recommending LaCombe but, for dynasty leagues, this does offer a chance to LaCombe to prove that he can contribute more offensively, so that bears watching. Mintyukov has had a stellar start to his career, with 19 points (2 G, 17 A), including seven on the power play, in 40 games. In a Ducks organization that is well stocked with young defencemen, Mintyukov may be the prize of the bunch.

#14 In his first 18 games this season, Pittsburgh Penguins winger Rickard Rakell managed zero goals and four assists, a ridiculously low level of production for a skilled player who has endured some lengthy slumps in his career. He has snapped out of it, though, and now has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) and 33 shots on goal in his past 12 games. He is playing with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel, which is a good place for ensuring future production.

#15 One of the biggest surprises in the NHL this season has been the performance of Calgary Flames winger Blake Coleman, who has 38 points (20 G, 18 A), tying his career high in points that he established last season. He is scoring on 18.9 percent of his shots, after never scoring on even 12 percent in any of his previous seasons, but the 32-year-old is offering fantasy value when he is producing at this level.

#16 Looking at forwards who might be due for some better shooting luck for the rest of the season, Alex Ovechkin might be the leading candidate. The Capitals superstar has two goals on 81 shots during five-on-five play and while everyone is aware of Ovi’s office on the power play, it is stunning that he has just two five-on-five goals more than halfway through a season. While in recent seasons it has seemed inevitable that Ovechkin would catch Wayne Gretzky for the all-time goal-scoring record, the 38-year-old sniper will have to recover his even-strength production to have a chance. For fantasy managers, Ovechkin does represent a potential buy-low opportunity because. His productivity is so far below his reputation, but if his shooting percentage bounces back, he still gets enough shots to make an impact, even if his 3.55 shots on goal per game is a career-low rate for him.

#17 Along the same reasoning, consider Columbus’ Johnny Gaudreau as a possible buy-low value play. Gaudreau has 28 points (7 G, 21 A) in 44 games and, during five-on-five play, has scored three goals on 65 shots. That is an unsustainable rate, but it is made even worse by the fact that Gaudreau is averaging 2.05 shots on goal per game. He has picked up three assists with nine shots on goal in his past two games, so that could be the start of something more promising. Gaudreau has never had less than 0.80 points per game in a full season and is sitting at 0.64 points per game now.

#18 When it comes to players that could be due for some improved fortune around assists, check out some of the players with lower on-ice shooting percentages during five-on-five play. Some are fourth-line players who play with other fourth-line players and those low on-ice percentages are consistent from year to year. A skilled forward with a low on-ice shooting percentage has more reasonable expectations for regression to work in their favour. Ducks rookie centre Leo Carlsson has an on-ice shooting percentage of 4.6 percent, which should be due for improvement as he continues to get more comfortable in the league. Injured Ducks centre Trevor Zegras has a 5.3 percent on-ice shooting percentage. Capitals right winger Tom Wilson is at 5.2 percent, Seattle’s Matty Beniers is at 5.6 percent, and New Jersey’s Timo Meier is at 6.6 percent. Meier has three even strength assists in 29 games, which is obviously too low to be a sustainable rate.

#19 Looking at the other end of the spectrum feeling like raining on someone’s parade, announcing the unsustainability of their current level of production. Senators rookie Ridly Greig, who has been bumped up the depth chart, also has a five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of 15.7 percent. That can’t last. Vancouver’s success this season has been driven in part by high percentages, as Elias Pettersson (15.3), J.T. Miller (15.0), and Brock Boeser (14.2) have percentages among the highest in the league. Matt Duchene (13.5), Gabriel Vilardi (13.3), and Casey Mittelstadt (12.8) are among the forwards that have had their production elevated by favourable on-ice percentages and are probably due for some regression.

#20 The leaders in five-on-five individual expected goal per 60 minutes this month have been: Yanni Gourde (1.61), Jake Guentzel (1.48), Lawson Crouse (1.48), Gabriel Vilardi (1.46), Evander Kane (1.45), and Ridly Greig (1.41), so those are players who are at least generating high quality chances. Whether they can continue to do that over the long term will affect their true value for the rest of the season. At the other end, Ryan Johansen (0.15) is not getting chances in January. Mika Zibanejad (0.26), Mats Zuccarello (0.29), Evgeny Kuznetsov (0.31), Jonathan Huberdeau (0.31), and Adrian Kempe (0.34) are among the more notable forwards that are not generating scoring chances at five-on-five.

NHL EXPANSION DRAFT: Seattle Roster by the Numbers

Alison Lukan and Shayna Goldman — Tue, 20 Jul 2021 13:25:18 +0000

In just under 48 hours, the Seattle Kraken will have the very first roster of players in franchise history courtesy of Wednesday’s Expansion Draft. 30 other teams (lucky Vegas is exempt) have labored over protection lists, and now it’s up to Seattle to pour through the available players and select one individual from each NHL club to join its organization. There are rules of course: the final roster must include 30 players – one from each team – and include a minimum of 17 forwards, nine defensemen, and three goaltenders with a minimum total cap hit of $48.9 million.

It’s a fun but daunting task to think about all the options and resulting on-ice product, so we decided to join the fray and come up with our own projection for the Kraken team with a data-driven approach.

For player valuation, we used Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR) measure to quantify what each player contributes on ice. We also considered a player's “expected” GAR (xGAR) to consider how a player performed compared to what was expected of them. We then also looked at this performance relative to cost (using annualized cap hit values from CapFriendly.com) to fill out our roster within the Draft guidelines.

With tremendous thanks to both of those online resources, here is our take on what the inaugural Kraken Draft class might look like.

THE ROSTER

THE DOLLARS AND SENSE

NOTES AND THOUGHTS:

The roster of signed players had a cumulative cap hit of about $58 million. On the viz above, to get a gauge of what some of those free agents could sign for, we used Evolving-Hockey’s contract projections. We’ll be honest, some teams had fewer attractive options than others and some of our picks (Fischer, Jarnkrok, Johnsson, Tierney) we view as bait for future trades or flips – some of which will help lower that 2021-22 cap that is over the limit with the featured projections. Also, while acknowledging there could be no shortage of side deals that influence these selections, we picked players with the expectation that they were who Seattle wanted without any constraints.

Here’s some of the players who stood out to us:

Carolina Hurricanes Defenceman Dougie Hamilton (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

DEFENSE:

Dougie Hamilton (D | Carolina Hurricanes)

We really like our defense overall, and Hamilton is arguably the cornerstone of that. He was a legitimate Norris candidate this past season, as he continues to have driven play while maintaining a positive defense impact. Any blue line would be lucky to have the skill that the right-handed back brings and according to Evolving-Hockey’s projection, that comes at a $8.5 million cap hit.

Mark Giordano (D | Calgary Flames)

Here’s our nod to the old school traditions of hockey. Giordano is in the older range of players we selected, and while that can raise some concern from a longevity perspective, he’s coming off a season where he had a team-high GAR of 12.7, which was also fifth best among all NHL defensemen. Add in a solid reputation as a leader - something a brand new team will need - and Giordano is a natural fit on and off the ice.

Shayne Gostisbehere (D | Philadelphia Flyers)

Just because the rest of the league passed on acquiring Gostisbehere when the Flyers put him on waivers doesn’t mean Seattle will. The leftie’s on ice impacts have slipped over the last two seasons, but a change of scenery should help him bounce back – so could time with Dave Hakstol, who was his bench boss for three and a half seasons earlier in his career.

Vince Dunn (D | St. Louis Blues)

Like Gostisbehere, there have been reports that the defender could be on the move. He isn’t really used in high leverage situations in St. Louis but has solid results in the minutes he’s played thus far in his career. The 24-year-old has the potential to help the Kraken grow on defense for years to come and gives some flexibility as he plays both the left and right side.

FORWARDS:

Josh Bailey (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

Josh Bailey (LW/RW | New York Islanders)

Unlike Gostisbehere and Dunn, Bailey’s availability is more of a surprise. The Islanders’ forward scores at the rate of a top-sixer and can provide two-way play on either wing. His versatility adds value as the veteran could shift around the lineup to wherever he’s most needed. If not Bailey, Seattle does have options from this squad; Jordan Eberle is also available and is the better option offensively if management feels they need more scoring up front.

Yanni Gourde (C/LW/RW | Tampa Bay Lightning)

While teams are throwing salary and term at Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow, the Kraken have the option of getting one of the most valuable pieces of that line for free. While he primarily played on the third line in Tampa Bay these last two seasons, Gourde could slot into most teams’ top-six, and can be deployed in all situations. Skating at either wing or center, the versatile forward creates offense both off the rush and forecheck, driving play with his passing and shooting. He gets to work every shift, pressuring for turnovers, and is defensively responsible despite his 5-foot-9 frame.

Philip Danault (C | Montreal Canadiens)

Danault may not be as high scoring as other top-six centers around the league, but he’s one of the best defensive centers right now which is why there’s going to be interest in him once free agency begins. Seattle gets to take a crack at him early, and Evolving-Hockey projects a $6.2 million cap hit. On a team of players put together just months before puck drop, Danault’s defensive play would be a source of stability. And with the right offensively inclined linemate, he could bolster his play on the other end of the ice too.

Andreas Athanasiou (C/LW/RW | LA Kings)

The knock on Athanasiou has always been that while he’s an offensive dynamo, his defensive play is non-existent. That’s still true, but paired with proper linemates, a team may be able to protect and utilize him in the proper way. He’s coming off a nice rebound last year and could be productive in the Pacific Northwest.

GOALTENDERS:

We approached our goaltending choices as a solution in its entirety more than thinking of each player one at a time. We wanted an established and seasoned veteran who understands and has experience with a true starter’s role. Enter Braden Holtby. He is still strong in net, and while costly, doesn’t have a Carey Price-esque contract. Holtby can provide stability in net while also being a mentor to Chris Dreidger. The young Panther is widely expected to join Seattle and his performance this past season gives a glimpse into what could be an exciting staple in net long term for the Kraken. He can play well in net as a backup while likely carrying a larger load than a traditional backup might, while preparing to become the eventual starter. Our third selection, Malcolm Subban, brings in a very solid security blanket in the number three spot. Subban has NHL experience at an affordable price.

Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, and CapFriendly

NORTH DIVISION PLAYOFF PREVIEW: Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs – Edmonton Oilers vs Winnipeg Jets – Long, Deep History between Canadian Teams

Jeff Veillette — Sun, 16 May 2021 19:57:19 +0000

The Stanley Cup playoffs are officially underway! Well, at least they are in the United States. In Canada, we’re still waiting for the closing act to finish – that is, the three makeup games between the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames, to secure draft lottery odds, fulfill TV deals, and deliver on the promise of a season without missed games.

With that in mind, Wednesday feels forever away. But once the final buzzer sounds on the North Division’s regular season in Calgary, we’ll almost immediately be jumping into two fantastic series featuring four compelling teams.

MONTREAL, QC - APRIL 12: Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitchell Marner (16) tracks the play during the Toronto Maple Leafs versus the Montreal Canadiens game on April 12, 2021, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

Toronto (1) vs. Montreal (4)

Maybe the single best byproduct of the divisional alignments, for a long-time fan of the sport, comes from this series. For the first time since 1978/79, the two oldest franchises in the league, hockey’s original rivalry, will turn into a playoff series. Be it league alignment or dissimilar trajectories, the two teams have repeatedly come close but not quite in bringing their magic to the post-season, but a new generation will now get to tell stories of their own.

At the start of the year, these two teams were the ones most frequently brought up as potential division leaders, though Toronto ended up pulling a whole 18 points ahead when all was said and done. The Habs did put up a pretty strong warning shot at the beginning of their season, opening the season 7-1-2 in their first 10 games, though they close it on a five-game losing streak, with just two regulation wins in their final 11 games and just five in their final 23.

None of those win/loss records matter in the post-season though, as a very similar Canadiens team showed in the bubble last year. After a similar run of two regulation wins in 14 games to close their regular season, Montreal stunned the hockey world by zooming past the Pittsburgh Penguins in the play-ins, on the back of three one-goal (excluding empty netters) victories in a best-of-five. This came largely on the back of Carey Price, who turned back the clock with a Game 4 shutout and a 0.947 save percentage on the series.

That’s one of the biggest factors the Canadiens are hoping will work for them – they have a tandem of goaltenders in Price and Jake Allen who have had extremely pedestrian, if not below average regular seasons, but have previously had stretches of greatness. Price did miss time down the stretch with a concussion, but Dominique Ducharme and his team hope he’ll be ready to go. Toronto’s situation in between the pipes is the exact opposite – Jack Campbell has had a dominant second half of the season since taking over for Frederik Andersen but is unproven in the NHL playoffs and doesn’t have a long track record of sustained performance. Rather than betting on a bounce-back, Toronto is betting on a lack of regression.

Up front, both teams play a high-possession game and enjoy putting pucks to the net. The difference in quality is stark, though – Toronto’s game breakers (Rocket Richard winner Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander, and even short-minute wizard Jason Spezza) are much more adept at not just moving the puck into the net-front but capitalizing on their opportunities. The Canadiens have Tyler Toffoli, arguably the offseason’s best free-agent acquisition, and his 28 goals to rely upon, but find themselves lacking up and down the lineup. Cole Caufield could be an injection of finishing talent for the team should they choose to use him, but early practice lines suggest that he might be a healthy scratch when Montreal’s core of injured players return.

Instead, it looks like the strategy for them will be to attempt to wear Toronto down. The Canadiens were the league’s most physical team this year, leading all clubs in hits, including 14 players who threw the body at least 70 times (Toronto, meanwhile, had two). Montreal out-hit Toronto in 8 of their 10 games against them, tying the 9^th and trailing by one in the 10^th, and they’ll be looking to employ similar results when the games are allowed to be even more physical.

It should be noted, though, that that more physical, defensive playstyle against the Leafs didn’t fare too well. Despite every attempt to suffocate them, the end result was a 7-3 record for Toronto in the season series, with none of Montreal’s wins coming by more than one non-empty net goal. The Leafs controlled the season series in just about every way – better finishing, better goaltending, more time with the puck, more shots in dangerous areas, and better special teams. So, while this stereotypically “playoff style” method of play could work in a small sample, it has yet to show its weight.

My Prediction: Toronto takes this series in five games. The competition in this one seems to rely too much on the underdog pulling the favourite down to its level, and while that’s not impossible, it will be very difficult with core players (Shea Weber, Philip Danault, Brendan Gallagher, and Carey Price, just to name a few) playing on half-injured bodies and young counter-attackers (Caufield, Jesperi Kotkaniemi) currently poised to sit in the press box. Toronto’s got some concerns in a cold powerplay, but comes into the playoffs with a deep, mostly healthy roster that should be able to keep their regular season momentum.

WINNIPEG, MB – April 17: Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) skates in on Winnipeg Jets defenseman Derek Forbort (24) during the regular season game between the Winnipeg Jets and the Edmonton Oilers on April 17, 2021 at the Bell MTS Place in Winnipeg MB. (Photo by Terrence Lee/Icon Sportswire)

Edmonton (2) vs Winnipeg (3)

Once again, we have a regional matchup with a lot of historical implications, though many come in another league and all come with a different organization operating under one of the names. But be it WHA or NHL, Jet-Coyotes or Thrasher-Jets, there has always been something about Edmonton and Winnipeg lining up for some post-season hockey. In fact, it seems to be the only path to success for these teams – while all versions of the Jets organization remain Stanley Cup-less, two of their three Avco Cups came through beating the Oilers. In Edmonton, all five of their Stanley Cups came through beating the original Jets along the way.

One thing that hasn’t changed along the way is their process of getting to this stage in the dance – offence pumped through star talent. For the Jets, it was once the Hot Line, followed by Dale Hawerchuk, Thomas Steen, Randy Carlyle, and their support core. For the Oilers, it was Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier, Jarri Kurri, and Paul Coffey, among others.

Today, the Jets rely on their quadrant of Mark Scheifele (team leader with 63 points), Kyle Connor (goal leader at 26), Nikolaj Ehlers, and captain Blake Wheeler to give them scoring punch across the lineup. In Edmonton, it’s the two highest scoring players in the league driving the bus – last year’s MVP in Leon Draisaitl, and this year’s eventual MVP in Connor McDavid. McDavid, undeniably the game’s best player today and looking eager to chase the all-time greats at the peaks of Mount Rushmore, blew all of our minds by scoring 105 points in 56 games this season, just five points fewer than Scheifele and Connor combined.

With that in mind, this series is very similar to the one out east. While Winnipeg does have a group of gamebreakers, they will be tested by nagging injuries for Ehlers and Wheeler, and it’s certainly not up to the level of what McDavid and Draisaitl can bring. Shutting those two down will be the modus operandi, and that’s something easier said than done. That’s especially the case for a Winnipeg team that struggles to limit shot quality against itself. McDavid in particular has had no issues slicing and dicing through them, out chancing every Jets opponent he’s faced this year, outscoring all of them, and outmatching all but Andrew Copp in expected goal matchups, and all but Mason Appleton and Adam Lowry in shot attempt matchups.

The lack of a high-end defenceman for Winnipeg makes this challenge even tougher. Neal Pionk and Dylan DeMelo have been fine value pieces for the team, but still struggle to hold off the most game breaking of talents. Josh Morrissey hasn’t quite been the star they’ve been hoping for him to be. After that, things thin out very even faster for the team, with Derek Forbort, Logan Stanley, and Jordie Benn being far from stalwarts.

In fairness, the same can be said for the Oilers, who can play physical and gritty but don’t exactly have a list of Norris candidates either. Tyson Barrie has had a great year offensively but isn’t the most reliable in the defensive zone. Similar can be said for Darnell Nurse, and while Ethan Bear is looking like a very intriguing option on their blue line, Dave Tippett has kept his minutes on the lower end.

Where this series could shift away from expectation is between the pipes. Connor Hellebucyk has put up a season that’s down from last season statistically, but still ranks him among the league’s higher end in save percentage (0.916), goals saved above average (10.8) and shutouts (4). He’s also proven very capable of managing a heavy workload over the past five years, appearing in nearly 80% of Winnipeg’s games (289 of 372), which should help him stay steady as the schedule pace tightens. On the other end, Mike Smith has turned back the clock with an even better season than Hellebucyk (0.923 SV%, 13.7 GSAA, 3 shutouts), but has been less consistent in recent years, has had less experience with a heavy workload both this year and in the past several seasons, and at 39 years old, you wonder at times if this miracle run might come to a head. Mikko Koskinen has had moments of quality but has struggled this season, so if Smith falters, I’m not sure Edmonton has a reliable safety valve.

My Prediction: This will also likely be a five-game series, maybe six, but likely five, and it will go in favour of the Edmonton Oilers. The McDavid factor is just too hard to ignore against a team that isn’t deep defensively – the playoffs are where you can leverage your game breakers and while better depth in the bottom 6/9 of the forward core might help the Jets a little, I don’t know if it will matter if 97 & 29 get to take up the majority of the minutes. Ehlers’ injury, even if he does come back, was a big blow to the team and if he’s any less than 100% they’ll be in real trouble. Hellebucyk is the player who has the most potential to disrupt the scale, but I just don’t know if I see it happening.