Ryan Graves – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 16:09:36 +0000

ST. PAUL, MN - MARCH 09: Pittsburgh Penguins right wing Rickard Rakell (67) looks on during second period of an NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Minnesota Wild on March 9th, 2025, at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)

The Penguins missed the playoffs for a third consecutive season in 2024-2025, finishing with 80 points (34-36-12). Their .488 points percentage was the franchise’s lowest since 2005-2006, Sidney Crosby’s rookie season. The Penguins ranked 13th with a 50.3 percent Corsi percentage and 17th with a 49.6 percent expected goals percentage, so they had the underlying numbers of a middle of the standings team, at least during five-on-five play. The Penguins’ power play ranked sixth with 8.66 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four action while their penalty killing ranked 18th with 7.55 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play. Goaltending was an issue, as Alex Nedeljkovic, Tristan Jarry, and Joel Blomqvist combined for a .891 save percentage.

What’s Changed?

There was some clarity brought forth by the Penguins missing the playoffs again, so that whatever illusions the team had about not quite rebuilding were finally pushed aside. Head coach Mike Sullivan moved on and joined the New York Rangers, while the Penguins’ search landed on Dan Muse, who was an assistant with the Rangers. As the season approaches, veteran wingers Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust are two of the most likely trade candidates in the entire league, and defenceman Erik Karlsson isn’t far behind, but the Penguins don’t need to rush those deals either. The Penguins have done some bargain hunting in the offseason, signing Anthony Mantha from the Calgary Flames, who suffered a torn ACL last season, and Justin Brazeau, who was traded to the Minnesota Wild by the Boston Bruins at the trade deadline. On defence, the Penguins dealt Connor Timmins to Buffalo for Connor Clifton, and the Penguins acquired Mathew Dumba from the Dallas Stars. Pittsburgh dealt goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic to the San Jose Sharks and made a trade to acquire goaltender Arturs Silovs from the Vancouver Canucks. Defenceman Matt Grzelcyk and winger Matt Nieto both remain unsigned. There’s a lot of movement, but it’s more about increasing the team’s number of long-term assets rather than improving in the short term.

What would success look like?

It’s agonizing to see Sidney Crosby missing the playoffs for three straight seasons, especially when he is still playing at an elite level on his own. It would surely be a noteworthy accomplishment for the Penguins to reach the playoffs, but that doesn’t even appear to be the objective. Not only does GM Kyle Dubas have a stockpile of draft picks in the next few seasons, but he has 10 established NHLers that will be unrestricted free agents next summer. The measure of success for the Penguins is how Dubas leverages those players to bring back young assets that can turn this thing around. It appears that there is no appetite to gut the team entirely, at least as long as Crosby is around, so it is imperative that Dubas have success in the trade market, acquiring young players that can make the Penguins more competitive in the long run.

What could go wrong?

The biggest problem for the Penguins would be if their veteran players perform so poorly that they do not yield quality in trades. If the Penguins struggle in the standings, that will give them a lottery pick and a chance at Gavin McKenna. If they somehow make the playoffs, which does not appear likely, it would probably hamper their rebuilding efforts, so the goal should be to lose respectably, while allowing players with expiring contracts to be showcased for trades. That shouldn’t be so difficult to achieve.

Top Breakout Candidate

Winger Ville Koivunen, a second-round pick of the Carolina Hurricanes who was acquired in the Jake Guentzel trade in 2024, picked up seven assists in eight games for the Penguins last season and had 56 points (21 G, 35 A) in 63 AHL games. He is looking at starting the season in Pittsburgh’s top six with power play time, so he could have an immediate impact, a refreshing situation for the team as it transitions into a new era.

FORWARDS

Sidney Crosby

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	31	54	85	1.06

Father Time continues to try to wrestle skill from Sidney Crosby, and each year he fails. While the situation around the Penguins changes and they shift to a rebuild, Crosby’s dominance remains evergreen. He finished the year with 33 goals and 58 assists for 91 points in 80 games, finishing 10th in NHL scoring while averaging a point per game for the 20th time, surpassing Wayne Gretzky’s record of 19. His offensive Wins Above Replacement at even-strength put him in the 97^th percentile of NHL forwards. He remains one of the best and most creative playmakers in the league; his even-strength primary assist rate was in the 97^th percentile of the league’s forward group. Crosby’s game continues to evolve. Based less on speed now, he is a master at controlling the game’s tempo and making video-game-like passes to his teammates. While the cast around him continues to change and experience turnover, Crosby seemingly adapts his game to meet his teammates. Crosby enters the season just 36 points shy of surpassing Mario Lemieux for the Penguins' all-time points lead. Playing at 38 years old with an unmatched level of consistency, Crosby is poised for another 85–95 point season. Expect him to remain the centerpiece of Pittsburgh’s offence, both in production and as a mentor to the young players that will fill the roster below him, driving the team through his 21st straight point-per-game campaign.

Evgeni Malkin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
68	20	35	55	0.81

Evgeni Malkin had a rough go of the 2024-25 season and while it wasn’t a complete failure, signs of wear began to show and a rotating cast of linemates created another set of struggles for the veteran center. Malkin registered 16 goals and 34 assists for 50 points, pacing at 0.74 points per game, down from previous years, but still demonstrating his playmaking acumen. Playmaking has become Malkin’s strongest point. He was in the 97^th percentile of NHL forwards in terms of shot assist passes. His overall offensive Wins Above Replacement dropped to the 52^nd percentile of NHL forwards. While defence has never been his calling card, he fell to the fourth percentile of NHL forwards for defensive Wins Above Replacement. A future Hall-of-Famer, Malkin remains elite in his vision, puck control, and ability to manipulate defenders in tight spaces. Malkin’s game no longer contains some of the speed and power combinations we’ve come to know from his younger days. However, his strength in one-on-one situations is still visibly present and his shot has experienced no deterioration. At age 39, he is entering the final year of his contract at a $6.1 million cap hit. Malkin remains a key veteran presence, but what the future holds beyond this year remains to be seen. Expect around 60–65 points if he can stay healthy and maintain his situational impact.

Rickard Rakell

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	28	35	63	0.79

No name has been hotter in the winger trade market than Rickard Rakell. Still, through the draft and the opening of free agency, the right deal hasn’t been found for general manager Kyle Dubas, and he remains on the Penguins roster as a result. Rakell delivered a standout 2024–25 season, posting 35 goals and 35 assists for 70 points across 81 games. His even-strength goal total was good for the 90^th percentile of NHL forwards, and his ability to generate raw scoring chances was in the 80^th percentile of NHL forwards. Rakell found a touch more consistency last year, which benefited him and the Penguiins as a result. A dynamic goal scorer with a heavy shot, Rakell mixes clever positioning with relentless movement off the puck. His hockey IQ allows him to find soft spots in zone coverage, and he is a no-nonsense shooter. His two-way responsibility remains strong, balancing finishing prowess with reliable defensive engagement. His defensive Wins Above Replacement at even-strength was in the 90^th percentile of NHL forwards. His off-puck commitment is an underrated aspect of his game. Entering the final three years of his deal with a $5 million cap hit, Rakell is poised to remain a vital scoring engine in the Penguins’ top six. Expect Rakell to be traded sometime before the trade deadline arrives as Pittsburgh’s rebuild continues.

Bryan Rust

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	28	28	56	0.86

When the term “Penguins core” is used in the present state, it includes Bryan Rust. That’s how embedded he’s become in a part of the Pittsburgh culture. One of the remaining members of the back-to-back Stanley Cup winners from a decade ago, Rust’s name is enshrouded in trade rumors despite his apparent desire to remain in Pittsburgh through the rebuild. Rust capped off his 11th NHL season with a career-high 31 goals and 34 assists for 65 points across 71 games, firmly establishing his role as a primary finisher for the Penguins. He also delivered 191 shots on goal, 62 hits, and 54 blocked shots, underlining his commitment to the finer details of the game. His even-strength goal total put him in the 93^rd percentile of NHL forwards. He was a play driver in multiple facets, as evidenced by his offensive Wins Above Replacement, putting him in the 89^th percentile of forwards. Now entering the final year of his contract ($5.125M cap hit), Rust aims to build on his breakout year as a dependable top six veteran. If healthy, he’s a clear bet for 30+ goals and assist totals supporting another 60–70 point season. As Pittsburgh leans into its youth core, Rust’s poise, production, and leadership will be invaluable and his versatility in being able to excel with both Crosby and Malkin will be key.

Anthony Mantha

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
60	19	16	35	0.58

Anthony Mantha was the lone notable signing the Penguins made in the offseason as they entirely steer toward a rebuild. Mantha joins Pittsburgh in 2025‑26 on a one-year, $2.5 million contract. He is eligible for up to $2 million in performance bonuses, most of which steer towards availability. Mantha only played in 13 games for the Calgary Flames last season before suffering an ACL injury that put him out for the rest of the year. That ACL injury, combined with the fact that Mantha has only played 31 games in the last two seasons, is the source of the performance bonuses from the Penguins, as the hope is that he can rebound with little issue and put forth a full slate of games. Mantha cracked the 20-goal plateau the last time he eclipsed fifty games. At 6-foot-5 and 235 pounds, Mantha combines size and skill. When he gets going, he offers a dangerous net-front presence and heavy-duty shot, capable of scoring in high-traffic areas and providing physicality to complement his scoring touch. Expect Mantha to slot in the Penguins top six alongside either Crosby or Malkin. While he’s unlikely to get special teams time, a reasonable expectation for his end results are 12–18 goals and 25–30 points. Expect him to be trade bait if he plays well through the first half of the year.

Philip Tomasino

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	19	20	39	0.51

After joining Pittsburgh via trade on November 25, 2024, Tomasino appeared in 50 games, amassing 11 goals and 12 assists for 23 points. Playing both the center and wing position, Tomasino slid up and down the lineup and served in a variety of roles after arriving from Nashville. A speedy, cerebral forward, Tomasino shines with above-average skating, offensive smarts, and a knack for high-percentage playmaking. He's adept at driving the net and finding soft spots in coverage. He played a crucial role in Pittsburgh’s rush offence, landing himself in the 87^th percentile of NHL forwards in offence off the rush. Tomasino finished on the positive side of both puck-possession and scoring-chance share during his time in Pittsburgh. Expect new head coach Dan Muse to use Tomasino as a utility winger; he may start the year on the second line, but will slide up and down the lineup as needed. Tomasino ended the year in the 97^th percentile of NHL forwards in forecheck involvement, an area he’ll be expected to lead the charge in again this season. Entering the season at age 24 with a cap hit of around $1.75 million, Tomasino will have the table set for a breakout season. expect him to earn greater responsibility at even-strength, with upside toward 35–40 points if trusted with more time on the second power-play unit.

Danton Heinen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	11	20	31	0.39

This is Danton Heinen’s second stop in Pittsburgh, arriving in January 2025 via trade with Vancouver. In 28 games with the Penguins, he added 11 points (three goals, eight assists) while playing just over 12 minutes per game. The Penguins will be hoping he can return to his form of scoring 17 to 18 goals, which would match his career highs. A versatile winger that can play up and down the lineup, Heinen is a decent skater, has functional puck movement, and can link plays together in the offensive zone. His hockey IQ allows him to create space, sustain forecheck pressure, and contribute in all three zones with a consistent defensive work rate. He plays well off the rush, as evidenced by the fact that he was in the 85^th percentile of rush shot opportunities among NHL forwards last year. I expect Dan Muse’s system to be a good fit for his skill set. Almost purely an even-strength player, don’t expect to see Heinen much in special teams' situations. Anticipate another 25–30-point season while providing sustainable energy and wise decision-making in possession. I think Heinen is another player that Pittsburgh will flip for draft picks if he over-performs this season and draws attention from around the league as a utility forward that can chip in with some goals.

Tommy Novak

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	14	12	26	0.37

Tommy Novak was acquired midseason on March 5, 2025, from Nashville. In the 2024–25 NHL campaign, he appeared in 54 total games split between the Predators and Penguins, tallying 13 goals and nine assists for 22 points. He suffered a lower-body injury that kept him out of the lineup for the end stretch of the season. A shifty forward that can play multiple positions, Novak excels with crisp skating, vision, and puck control. He’s a play driver at even-strength, extending possession with his skating and active stick. Coming off injury and entering training camp healthy, Novak is likely to slot into a middle-six forward role, capable of playing wing or center as needed. With his $3.5 million cap hit under a three-year deal with two years remaining on it, he may reunite with Evgeni Malkin to see if some of the chemistry they found last season can be re-ignited. Still, he could also serve as the Penguins’ third line center, a role he’d be well-suited for given his skill set. A realistic projection would be 12–18 goals and 25–30 points, assuming regular usage from new head coach Dan Muse and growth in consistency. His creativity and pace offer upside as Pittsburgh aims to balance veteran presence with youthful energy in its rebuilding core. He can be a disruptive force for their forward group if he stays healthy.

Kevin Hayes

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	13	13	26	0.37

Hayes wrapped up the 2024–25 season with 13 goals and 10 assists for 23 points in 64 games, marking one of his less productive seasons but still tying for sixth on the team in goals scored. He will be a veteran presence on a team infused with a ton of youth, with an eye on the future. A tall and versatile forward, Hayes brings size, puck protection, and net-front presence. He combines a willingness to drive play physically with passes in tight, using reach and positioning to create space. Though his offensive pace has slowed, he proved he still has a heavy, useful shot. I expect he will serve as a veteran anchor in the Penguins’ bottom six forward group. He did see some time on the top power-play last year, filling in for injuries when needed. Despite some struggles, Hayes posted positive results in both puck-possession and expected-goal share, where he was top five on the team in both categories. Entering the season at age 33 and carrying a $7.14 million cap hit, Hayes faces a pivotal year for his future. His next contract will likely depend heavily on his performance this season, and he’s unlikely to return to Pittsburgh given their rebuild. If he plays well, he may earn a short-term deal from another team looking for a veteran presence.

DEFENCE

Erik Karlsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	40	52	0.63

Despite a heavy falloff from his Norris Trophy season in 2022-23, Erik Karlsson remains an elite puck mover and play driver from the backend. Another player whose name is circulating in the trade winds, the plan for Karlsson to help lift the Penguins back to the post-season has not even come close to maturing. Playing in all 82 games, he recorded 11 goals and 42 assists for 53 points, leading Penguins defencemen in scoring. It was the third-straight year he has played in every game of the season. His even strength offensive Wins Above Replacement were in the 96^th percentile of NHL defenders, and his power-play Wins Above Replacement were in the 98^th percentile of NHL defenders. He continues to be a highly effective puck carrier, as evidenced by his slotting in the 96^th percentile of raw zone exits. Karlsson’s defensive game is almost non-existent at this point, a price teams need to be willing to pay for his offensive contributions. Karlsson still posted positive results in puck-possession and scoring chance shares despite his defensive woes. Now with two years remaining on his eight-year contract (cap hit: $11.5 million, $10 million retained by San Jose), Karlsson will continue to anchor Pittsburgh’s offensive transition. If the team stabilizes defensively under Dan Muse, another 50–60 point season is realistic, assuming the Penguins can’t work out a trade with retained salary.

Kris Letang

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	8	22	30	0.43

Letang had a tumultuous 2024-25 season marred by some of his worst defensive performances of his career. While he still logs over 24 minutes per game, putting him in the top ten of league defencemen, the injuries he’s experienced have taken a clear physical toll on his abilities. In 2024–25, Letang logged 74 games with nine goals and 21 assists for 30 points. His overall even-strength offensive Wins Above Replacement dropped to the 32^nd percentile of NHL defencemen. There’s a sense that Letang needs to simplify his game at his age and take less risk, as his recovery isn’t what it used to be. He did show he can still transition the puck, as his rush offence and zone exits were in the 85^th and 80^th percentiles, respectively. His puck-possession and expected-goal shares were the worst among Penguin defencemen last season. Entering his age-39 season, Letang faces a likely reduction in minutes as the Penguins push for youth infusion and manageable workloads for veterans. Additionally, Letang is coming off of surgery to repair a hole in his heart this spring, and I expect he will need to ease into his return. Expect him to remain a stabilizing presence on the second defensive pairing and power play, contributing around 25–30 points if he stays healthy. Managing his minutes will be crucial for head coach Dan Muse.

Ryan Graves

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	2	10	12	0.19

The first year for Ryan Graves in Pittsburgh was a hard one, and the second year was even more challenging. Last season, Graves played his way out of the lineup as a healthy scratch on more than one occasion. He has yet to find his rhythm in Pittsburgh and did not seem a great fit for former coach Mike Sullivan’s system, so there’s hope new coach Dan Muse can find a way to get Graves back to level. Across 61 games, he produced just one goal and three assists for four points while averaging 14:59 of ice time per game, dropping him out of the top four in time on ice. Graves’ most significant issues have come in defensive transition, evidenced by the fact that he was in the fourth percentile of NHL defencemen in zone entry denial rate. He did post positive returns in puck retrievals and scoring chance contribution, but the rest of his game needs a total rebuild from head coach Dan Muse. With a new coaching staff and the team’s left side in need of capable defenders, Pittsburgh is hoping Graves can recapture even a semblance of his former level. The bar is low, but if he can stabilize his performance and return to closer to 19 minutes per night, even as a reliable bottom pairing option, it would provide much needed relief.

Mathew Dumba

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	3	13	16	0.21

Arriving in Pittsburgh this summer via trade, Mathew Dumba spent the previous season with the Dallas Stars. Appearing in 63 games for Dallas, he contributed one goal and nine assists for 10 points, and he was his usual self with 70 hits and 60 blocked shots. A veteran defender known for his aggressive engagement, Dumba blends step-up physical defence with a physical edge around the net. He was in the 100^th percentile of NHL defencemen last season in raw zone entry prevention, a testament to his ability to still maintain a tight gap versus forwards. While still strong defensively, his ability to move the puck has declined with age, and his offensive Wins Above Replacement was in the 46^th percentile of NHL defencemen. He was in the 85^th percentile of NHL defencemen for hits and continued to play a role in shorthanded situations. Dumba enters the final year of a two-year, $7.5 million contract ($3.75M cap hit). With his game trending toward reliable, physical minutes over offensive flash, expect him to settle into a middle-pairing role, especially on the penalty kill. If he plays well, expect him to be a trade option for a team that is interested in a veteran presence on the blueline. He’s projected to add 10–15 points, while still serving as a stabilizing, physical presence on the back end.

Goal

Tristan Jarry

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
49	19	22	5	3	.900	2.98

Normally, a team would be thrilled to have three goaltenders with nearly identical stats to roll out during an NHL season. But the trio tandem of Joel Blomqvist, Alex Nedeljkovic, and Tristan Jarry is likely one that the Pittsburgh Penguins would like to forget about as quickly as possible - something that might be made easier by the departure of Nedeljkovic this July, dealt to the San Jose Sharks on July 1st. None of Pittsburgh's goaltenders last season was able to string together a full year's worth of consistent performances; Blomqvist took a quick dive after starting off the season with strong numbers, and neither Jarry nor Nedeljkovic was able to replicate their league-average numbers from the year prior.

Jarry has been the most reliable of Pittsburgh's performers since the Marc-Andre Fleury era; while he's had some regressive stretches each year, he tends to level out as his sample size grows. This past year, though, his timing and rhythm looked lethargic, and his skating appeared crisp but somewhat slow. He struggled so much, in fact, that he was assigned to the AHL Penguins for conditioning reps during the year - something that did little to bring his numbers out of their nosedive toward the bottom of the league. It's not entirely his fault; the hesitation by Penguins brass to send Blomqvist down to the AHL early in the year left the top crease too crowded, and the team's defence looked lost for large chunks of time. But things looked dire enough that Pittsburgh brought in reinforcements. It should be Blomqvist's year to assume the backup role full-time, but the arrival of Arturs Silovs from Vancouver leaves that in question. One thing is clear, though, Pittsburgh cannot roll out their three goaltender tandem again.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – Team Preview

Wed, 18 Sep 2024 20:00:52 +0000

_{NEWARK, NJ - APRIL 02: Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby (87) celebrates after scoring a goal during a game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and New Jersey Devils on April 2, 2024 at Prudential Center in the Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)}

Even though they only lost two of their last 10 games, the Penguins still finished with just 88 points (38-32-12), which left them three points behind the Washington Capitals for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Penguins ranked 12th with 51.4 percent of shot attempts and 14th with 51.2 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play. Pittsburgh scored just 5.52 goals per 60 minutes on the power play which ranked 30th and was inconceivable given the talent that they had available. Sure, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Erik Karlsson are getting older, but they have all had massive power play success in their careers, so to see it fall apart so completely was tough. The Penguins ranked ninth with 6.75 goals against per 60 minutes while shorthanded. Considering that the Penguins were that close to making the playoffs, the abysmal power play can take a lot of the blame for that result.

WHAT’S CHANGED? After one season in Pittsburgh, the Penguins dealt winger Reilly Smith to the Rangers and watched Jeff Carter skate into retirement. The Penguins traded for Kevin Hayes from St.Louis, and Cody Glass from Nashville, while Blake Lizotte from Los Angeles and Anthony Beauvillier from Nashville were signed as free agents. Defencemen Matt Grzelcyk, from Boston, and Sebastian Aho, from the Islanders, were also inked as free agents. This was not an offseason of dramatic change, like acquiring Erik Karlsson last year, so while the Penguins were making moves, they were more about depth additions than anything else.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? If the Penguins are going to pay Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Karlsson big money, then they might as well reach the playoffs. They have fallen just short in back-to-back seasons after making the playoffs for 16 straight seasons. With Crosby continuing to play at a very high level, it is a waste for the Penguins to struggle either to be just good enough to get in or, worse, just good enough to finish outside the playoffs. If the Penguins are going to get over the hump, they will need production from the supporting cast – Michael Bunting, Anthony Beauvillier, Kevin Hayes, Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust – and they could use a big sea- son from Karlsson, who it seemed had a hard time adjusting to the Penguins in his first season with the team.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? There is certainly a world in which the Penguins embark on a proper rebuild and move out their veteran players, but if Crosby is not inclined to leave and the other veteran stars don’t want to go, the worst-case scenario is for the Penguins to do what they have done the past two seasons and just miss the playoffs. If they get in, then that is an accomplishment, but if they are not going to get into the playoffs, then they might as well be really bad, so that they have a chance to draft elite talent. The way it’s been going recently, the Penguins do not have enough prospect quality to pick up the pieces when their aging stars are finished.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: There are not a ton of young Penguins players that are in position to have break- out seasons, but Valtteri Puustinen showed some potential last season, contributing 20 points in 52 games. He has been productive in two-plus AHL seasons and in Finland before that, so in Pittsburgh it is going to be about the opportunity. If he finds a spot in the top six, along with some second unit power play time, Puustinen is capable of providing the secondary offense that the Penguins sorely need.

Forwards

Sidney Crosby

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	36	54	90	1.13

Sidney Crosby has never finished a season below a point-per-game average, and 2023-24 was no different. Seemingly immune to Father Time’s grasp, Crosby posted one more point than he did in 2022-23 while once again playing in all 82 games. When the Penguins struggled last season, it was Crosby who lifted the team up and stole points to keep their playoff hopes alive. Even with the loss of his star winger Jake Guentzel, Crosby continued to make the most of his minutes and dominated puck possession and expected goal metrics. His puck possession share was plus six percent relative to teammates and his expected goal share was plus six percent relative to teammates. While Crosby doesn’t have the same speed burst he did in his youth, his cerebral game has only gotten more threatening with time and he’s a master of controlling the pace of play and threading no-look, tape-to-tape passes between defenders. Crosby continually evolves his game to account for both opponent and his own age. Crosby was in the 100th percentile of even-strength shot-assists last season. The question for the upcoming year is how much the loss of Guentzel affects him long term and what kind of balance he strikes without him. Crosby regressed defensively last year, a result of the volatile Penguins backline and a bit of Crosby pressing to create offense as much as possible. There were long stretches of time in 2023-24 where Crosby was the Penguins entire offense.

Evgeni Malkin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	26	42	68	0.92

For the second year in a row, Evgeni Malkin also played in a full 82 games for the Penguins. The result was 27 goals and 40 assists and a 26-point reduction from his previous year’s total. Malkin’s speed and movement have declined due to multiple lower body injuries, but he proved he’s still a tour de force with his size and shooting ability. The biggest issue last year was a lack of line identity. He never gelled with Reilly Smith, and that partnership negatively affected both players. It wasn’t until the arrival of Michael Bunting at the trade deadline that Malkin found chemistry with a fellow linemate. The transient nature of his wingers and their poor play reduced his assist totals, and the putrid Penguins power-play further affected his point totals. If that Bunting partnership continues, Malkin should continue to reap the benefit of a linemate that can retrieve loose pucks and create space while driving the net. Despite the lack of power-play production, Malkin’s even-strength goal total was good for the 82nd percentile of NHL forwards. It was also Malkin’s best defensive season of the last five years. While he wasn’t among the league leaders defensively, great leaps were taken in his work in the defensive zone. Overall, expect Malkin to return to a higher points total if he can find some consistency with his linemates.

Bryan Rust

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	31	26	57	0.88

Injuries caused Rust to miss 20 games in the regular season, but he was a productive member of the team across both of the top lines when he was healthy and in the lineup. A jack of all trades forward, Rust can contribute in a variety of fashions. He was in the 96th percentile of NHL forwards in even-strength scoring chance generation and the 94th percentile for defensive zone exists with possession. Rust is at his best when he can dictate the first step in the offensive zone by carry-in. He drives to the net with effectiveness and has a quick shot that he can release from a variety of compromising situations. Rusts’ game is such that he can easily slide in with both Crosby or Malkin in the top six and can adapt to his center accordingly. That change-ability within his game makes him a vital asset to the Penguins top six forward group. His 28 goals last season were a career high. In the absence of Guentzel, Rust will be called upon again to continue his goal scoring prowess, as the Penguins look to replace the production of one of their best wingers. Keep an eye on Rust’s carry-in metrics, his best seasons usually come when he’s doing a lot of carrying the mail himself. Expect Mike Sullivan to continue to deploy him in a variety of lines and fashions. He has been a consistent scorer and at almost a point a game last season, similar results should be achievable with opportunity on the first line and power play.

Michael Bunting

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	24	35	59	0.72

Michael Bunting was the prime centerpiece of the trade that sent Jake Guentzel to the Carolina Hurricanes. This ultimately resurrected Bunting’s season, as he was not a great systematic mix with the high-flying Hurricanes offense. Bunting’s style, more predicated on a north-south forechecking game, meshed extremely well with Mike Sullivan’s system. Moreover, Bunting found instant chemistry with Evgeni Malkin and the two of them found immediate and sustained success after the trade. The expectation is that this new partnership will continue directly into next season, setting Bunting up to get back over the 20-goal plateau. Bunting is a space creator; he was in the 87th percentile of NHL forwards regarding his forecheck involvement. He ended his first run with the Penguins with 19 points in 21 games. Where Bunting struggled to establish himself in rush opportunities with the Hurricanes, he seemed to thrive in the slower-pace overload system of the Penguins, which enabled him to be active in front of the net and in the battle areas of the boards. He also outshot his traditional pace during his short time in Pittsburgh. While the Guentzel loss was hard for Penguins fans to swallow, there is some hope gained from Bunting’s presence and immediate chemistry with Malkin. With new assistant coach David Quinn set to run the power-play for Pittsburgh, it will be interesting to see if Bunting has a role on the top unit as a net-front presence. He could threaten his career best totals in this environment.

Drew O’Connor

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	24	20	44	0.54

Last year was Drew O’Connor’s first full year as an NHL winger and he set high water marks in goals (16) and assists (17). The expectation for this year is that O’Connor will have an opportunity within the Penguins top six forward group, likely alongside Sidney Crosby, to fill the absence of Jake Guentzel. Newly acquired prospect Rutger McGroarty may provide some competition but O’Connor should own the inside track. He showcased some developing skill with the puck last year in addition to a stronger speed burst that enabled him to find new scoring opportunities. O’Connor’s skating speed, tracked via NHL biometric data, put him in the 94th percentile of NHL forwards. Overall, O’Connor has an unassuming offensive skill set without any one truly standout area. He’s a presence in the battle areas of the ice, a willing participant defensively, and he was in the 88th percentile of NHL forwards regarding forecheck involvement. The ask on O’Connor offensively will be much greater than 16 goals if he is affixed to Crosby’s wing. The majority of the early portion of the season saw O’Connor floating between the second and third lines without much consistency in his role. Continuing to develop a quick-thinking approach to offense and quick reaction time will be paramount to finding success on the top line. A competent penalty-killer, O’Connor played an aggressive, physical approach on the penalty-kill that saw him garner a good amount of shorthanded scoring chances.

Rickard Rakell

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	19	24	43	0.55

The Pittsburgh Penguins struggled to find consistent goal scoring throughout their lineup last year, and Rickard Rakell was a big reason why. Spending time almost exclusively between the top two lines over a 70-game span only netted Rakell 15 goals and 37 points, well below expectation given his quality of teammates and environment. Traditionally speaking, if Rakell isn’t scoring, you can rely on him to produce a high number of supporting play peripherals that usually speak to his off-puck value. This year, those also regressed, and his forechecking, puck retrievals, and shot-assists were all in the middle-third of NHL forwards from a percentile perspective. Like Malkin, Rakell’s best work seemed to come post-deadline upon the addition of Michael Bunting. It stands to reason that we might see the same debut for the Penguins second line this year, putting Rakell in less of a position to have to manage retrievals and forechecking and focus on scoring more goals. Rakell finished 2023-24 ninth among Penguin forwards in expected-goal generation, a testament to how cold he was through the first several months of the year. If Rakell is going to be a permanent fixture within the Penguins top six, more offensive output regarding shots, chances and shot-supporting assists will be a requirement. Ideally, Rakell can get back to finding some open space and use his effective wrist shot to put chances on net. Be careful drafting for a big comeback. In the last four seasons, his 60 points in 2022-23 was the outlier and a 15 goal, 40–45-point effort may be more in line with recent seasons.

Valtteri Puustinen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	18	24	42	0.54

Puustinen graduated to the NHL this season, making the leap after two full years of AHL service. Puustinen, a shifty winger with an electric wrist shot, finished his rookie campaign with five goals and 15 assists in 50 games played. Primarily playing on the third line along defensive specialists, Puustinen was one of the only pure shooting threats in the Penguins bottom-six forward group. After some time bouncing back and forth between the third and fourth lines, Puustinen received a promotion and played some impactful minutes alongside Evgeni Malkin, where he seemed to develop some spark from time to time. Although the sample size was limited to 50 games, Puustinen ended the year with the 4th best expected-goals for share of any forward on the roster. Additionally, the Penguins defensive returns were 14% better with Puustinen on the ice as they were with him off the ice. Some of that can certainly be attributed to the defensive nature of some of his linemates, but on an individual level, Puustinen showcased the desire to be involved defensively, while simultaneously not giving up his penchant for wanting to carry the puck into the zone and shoot off the rush. He ended up in the eighth percentile of NHL forwards with regards to his finishing, highlighted by a shooting percentage of 5.6 percent after firing regularly above 10 percent in Wilkes-Barre. It is reasonable to expect that he sees that total increase next year given the volatility of his shot and his offensive toolbox. The question will be where he fits in the line-up with the veteran offseason acquisitions of Kevin Hayes, Anthony Beauvillier and Blake Lizzotte to fill out the lower half of the forward units.

Kevin Hayes

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	18	24	42	0.58

Hayes arrived in Pittsburgh via trade from St. Louis in the offseason that brought the veteran center back to the familiar landscape of the Metropolitan division. Hayes spent one year in St. Louis, and it was one that saw him struggle to find a defined role within the forward group. Hayes’ struggles were so extensive that he was moved off of the center position, a home here he had a team best 57 percent win percentage, to have a test run of time on the wing in an attempt to find him a fit for him. He enters Mike Sullivan’s system as the presumptive third line center, a position the Penguins have struggled to find a caretaker for since the departure of Nick Bonino. Hayes’ struggles can be summed up in a variety of ways, but most notably his 29 points in 79 games is his lowest output since his rookie season of 2014-15. Hayes is still an adequate passer and although his totals were reduced last season as he struggled in St. Louis, he is usually in the upper half of the league regarding in-zone shot assists. He’s still an adequate defensive player as evidenced by his even-strength defensive wins above replacement being in the 75th percentile of league forwards. Overall, it will be intriguing to see how Hayes slots in with the Penguins and how his style meshes with Sullivan’s desire to play up-tempo, high-forechecking hockey.

Anthony Beauvillier

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	9	16	25	0.33

Beauvillier is hoping to keep an unpacked suitcase in 2024-25. In 2023-24, he appeared for Vancouver, Chicago, and Nashville. As a result, he struggled to find an identity after bouncing around from team to team. Requirements and systems changed rapidly, and it ultimately affected the results. Beauvillier played 60 games across three teams and ended the year with five goals and 12 assists. While the end results were not pleasant, the process behind them was actually quite sound. Beauvillier finished the season in the 90th-plus percentile in even-strength shot rates, rush shot rates, shots from high-danger passes. His finishing totals, however, put him in the second percentile of NHL forwards. Through his journey, he played at all three forward positions, including center, a versatility that will certainly come in handy for the Penguins. Ultimately, Beauvillier’s up-tempo game and despite to be involved in the forecheck (83rd percentile last year) should slot nicely into the Penguins overall structure. The question is whether or not last year’s shooting percentage was an aberration or not. The Penguins bottom-six forward group has struggled to find an identity and reliable presence to press the play offensively. Beauvillier certainly has the skill set to fill that role if he can re-center his game and find some long-term chemistry in Pittsburgh.

DEFENCE

Erik Karlsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	56	74	0.90

It’s difficult to call Erik Karlsson’s first season in Pittsburgh a disappointment. He finished in the 100th percentile among NHL defensemen in even-strength scoring chance assists and shot contributions and was in the 99th percentile for defensemen in rush shot opportunities. That aside, his point total went from 101 in his final season with the Sharks to 56 in his first season with the Penguins. That drastic reduction hit fairly hard given the lofty expectations set for him. The Penguins offense generated expected-goals at a rate that was 26 percent higher when Karlsson was on the ice versus when he was not, a testament to his impact in carrying the puck up ice and contributing to shot totals. However, the Penguins were mostly a mess defensively and Karlsson was a contributor to that in his own way. The Penguins power-play was inexcusably bad all season long, ultimately dampening Karlsson’s point totals. With a new mind behind the helm of the man-advantage in David Quinn, the hope is that the Penguins power-play at least returns to a league average function, giving Karlsson the opportunity to expand his point totals. While not the quarterback of the top unit, the Penguins have made Karlsson the focal point of the zone entry process with the man-advantage. Overall, expect more of Karlsson controlling the rush and pressing the play up ice. The hope is the Penguins can provide him with a more stable environment moving forward and a rebound in points to among the league leaders. 100 points is not realistic but can push 70 or more if the power play shows signs of life.

Kris Letang

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	8	39	47	0.57

Kris Letang played in all 82 games for the Penguins for the first time in a long time, despite his age and wear and tear. He finished with the highest even-strength point rate of any defenseman on the team, but also regressed significantly on the defensive side. From a defensive Wins Above Replacement perspective, Letang was five percent worse in 2023-24 than he was in the previous year. One element here worth mentioning is that the Letang and Ryan Graves pairing held some disastrous results and seemed like an oil-and-water mixture from the beginning of the year. This caused a bit of shuffling between Graves and Marcus Pettersson to find the right balance in the Penguins top two pairings, but that never came, and the environment remained fairly volatile for the Penguins netminders. Letang’s peripheral statistics in terms of supporting the play are still very strong, albeit a notch down from what his peak was several years ago. He was in the 90th percentile among NHL defensemen in defensive zone exits and had one of his strongest seasons ever in defensive zone puck retrieval success rate, where he landed in the 97th percentile among defensemen. Letang was also hampered by the lack of a functional power-play. Overall, the hope is that Letang can maintain his offensive numbers while cutting down on some of the turnovers and defensive miscues.

Marcus Pettersson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	2	21	23	0.31

Pettersson has become “Mr. Reliable” for the Penguins defensive unit. An unassuming figure on the blueline, Pettersson handles most of the cleanup from having a mobile, offense-first partner on the backend alongside him. His Wins Above Replacement totals from an even-strength perspective put him in the 80th percentile of NHL defenders. Pettersson faced more volatile situations last year than any in his career, ultimately being repeatedly tested on zone entries with the help of only a forward alongside him, if that. The result knocked him back a tier defensively and saw his usually strong metrics around zone entry denials drop to the 42nd percentile of NHL defensemen. The Penguins limited expected-goals with Pettersson on the ice only two percent better than when he was off the ice, another reduction in his year over year value defensively. Despite these drops, Pettersson’s best attribute remains his strong gap control, penchant for making safe, sound plays with the puck, and being able to take a hit and make a play. The hope is that the Penguins have a much cleaner approach defensively that makes Pettersson’s life a bit easier as a result. As he enters the final year of a five-year contract, it’s fair to wonder if his name doesn’t appear in several trade conversations as Kyle Dubas looks to pivot the team mid-flight. The nature of Pettersson’s defense-first approach while still showing competency with the puck on his stick is the definition of a modern-day shutdown defenseman that will certainly be a commodity on the trade block.

Ryan Graves

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	3	13	16	0.22

There’s no question Ryan Graves’ first year in Pittsburgh was nothing short of a disappointment. He came to the Penguins with a six-year contract commitment, with an AAV of $4.5 million a season. Graves results did not deliver close to that value. His strength is carrying the puck up ice, activating offensively, and contributing to shot totals. The inherent problem in that is he’s now being paired with one of Erik Karlsson or Kris Letang, and both of those defensemen are likely headed to the Hall of Fame for their notorious puck handling abilities. The space to create simply wasn’t there and Graves, never known for his physicality or defensive prowess, was suddenly asked to employ both. He could not find that balance successfully and his ice time dwindled considerably as the year went on. Graves even-strength defensive metrics put him in the 31st percentile of NHL defenders, a far cry from where the Penguins need him operating given his presence within their top four defense corps. Graves was in the 10th percentile of NHL defensemen regarding his ability to exit the zone with possession, showing that even his bread-and-butter proved to be a problem. General Manager Kyle Dubas was very direct in calling out Graves at the end of the year, it will be interesting to see how he responds.

GOAL

Tristan Jarry

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
49	23	21	5	3	0.906	2.82

If the 2023-24 Pittsburgh Penguins were the picture of mediocrity, starter Tristan Jarry was the face of the franchise. That’s not necessarily a knock on the veteran starter, who held down the fort during a season of lackluster play from an aging roster in front of him. But in a division of teams littered with inconsistency, Jarry was just good enough to keep his team in the conversation - and not quite stellar enough to push them that extra little inch into the postseason.

That’s not necessarily his fault, but he’ll likely spend the next few years watching his leash grow increasingly shorter. Prospect Joel Blomqvist of Finland had a stellar breakout year in North America and seems poised to hit the NHL within the next season or two. That leaves very little room for error for Jarry or his tandem partner, Alex Nedeljkovic. Both goaltenders were fine last year, but any regression could open the door for Blomqvist to get his first extended taste of NHL action - and with a handful of other quality goaltending prospects waiting in the wings in Pittsburgh, every game is an audition for everyone in the blue paint.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 07 Oct 2023 20:41:10 +0000

Review: For the first time, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin played a full 82 games in the same year and the Penguins’ other star forward, Jake Guentzel, appeared in 78 contests. You’d think that’d be a recipe for success, but instead Pittsburgh finished with a 40-31-11 record, narrowly missing the playoffs for the first time since 2006. The supporting cast just wasn’t good enough. Other than their main three forwards and Rickard Rakell, who had 28 goals and 60 points, no member of the Penguins reached the 50-point milestone, resulting in the squad finishing 16th in goals per game (3.18). Pittsburgh likely would have still squeaked into the postseason had Tristan Jarry enjoyed a repeat of his 2021-22 success, but after recording a 2.42 GAA and .919 save percentage in 58 contests during that campaign, he dropped to a 2.90 GAA and a .909 save percentage in 47 starts in 2022-23. Pittsburgh also lacked an appealing alternative as Casey DeSmith posted a 3.17 GAA and .905 save percentage in 38 contests. The Penguins consequently wasted a season at a time when they’re running out of opportunities to make a Stanley Cup run in the Crosby/Malkin/Letang era.

What’s Changed? Pittsburgh made a huge splash by acquiring Erik Karlsson in exchange primarily for draft picks, though the Penguins also moved Mikael Granlund, Jeff Petry and DeSmith in the process for cap purposes. Outside of that, Pittsburgh signed Alex Nedeljkovic to serve as their new backup goaltender and lured free agent defenseman Ryan Graves with a six-year, $27 million deal.

What would success look like? Getting back to the playoffs will likely involve a strong year out of Karlsson. Expecting him to get 25 goals and 101 points like he did with the Sharks in 2022-23 is overly optimistic, but a 60–70-point showing is obtainable. Between Karlsson and Letang, the Penguins should also be able to deploy two strong power-play units after finishing in the middle of the pack with a 21.7% power-play conversion rate last year. Combine that with even a modest rebound from Jarry and the Penguins would have the makings of a strong team.

What could go wrong? That’s provided that Karlsson stays healthy, which is far from certain given his lengthy injury history. Then of course there’s the fact that Crosby and Letang are 36 while Malkin is 37. How much longer can that trio really lead the charge in Pittsburgh? On top of that, Malkin being healthy has been a rarity, so even if he remains effective, expecting anything close to a repeat of his 2022-23 82-game showing would be surprising. Any significant injury to Crosby or Malkin might also push Jeff Carter into a second-line role, which is not a job the 38-year-old is still suited for based on his 29-point showing last season.

Top Breakout Candidate: With the Penguins going all-in on the present, they lack significant breakout candidates. That said, if the Penguins run into injury troubles, which is certainly plausible given the team’s age, Samuel Poulin will be one to watch as a forward who might step in and turn heads, though after missing most of 2022-23 to focus on his mental health, he’s expected to start the campaign in the AHL.

Forwards

Sidney Crosby

Sidney Crosby showed little sign of slowing as he finished his 18^th season, every one of which has come above a point per game. Crosby still possesses the vision and playmaking of an elite puck distributor. His 1.6 assist per hour of even-strength hockey was tops on the Penguins. Per All Three Zones, he was in the 99^th percentile of NHL forwards with regards to high-danger passes and in-zone shot assists. While his defense took a step back from what we’ve become accustomed to, the Penguins found themselves in a lot of situations that required shootout-style approaches to the game. While the Penguins power-play had periods of frustration, Crosby is ultimately still the straw that stirs the drink on the man-advantage. Crosby still elevates every linemate he plays with based on his ability to draw attention to himself and dish no-look, last minute passes to the tape of his teammates. Crosby exhibited the same ability to hound and steal the puck as he has throughout his career last season. Expect more of the same this season and at least one more sensational moment that comes via a ridiculous backhand goal.

Evgeni Malkin

Repeated lower-body injuries may have robbed Evgeni Malkin of some of his explosive gallop through the neutral zone, but they haven’t stopped him from being one of the most consistent offensive threats in the league. In 2021-22, Malkin played in every single game and went over a point per game for the season. Like his counterpart in Crosby, most of Malkin’s game has been immune to Father Time. Last year was different for Malkin in that he shot less and passed more. Per the All Three Zones project, Malkin was in the 97^th percentile of NHL forwards for primary shot assists and only in the 64^th percentile for individual shot rates. Malkin’s defensive performance last season was once again not his strongest point, but it was more in line with team average than in prior years. Overall, Malkin still has the desire to take a game over. He is relentless in attack, difficult to move off the puck, and willing to take risks to elevate the play of himself and his teammates. If his increase in passing the puck holds through this year, he could achieve 800 career assists. Overall, Malkin will be the central focus of the second line and may get the boost of playing with Erik Karlsson on the blueline this season.

Jake Guentzel

The son of a great coach, Guentzel is coming off another year where he consistently exhibited a high hockey IQ and stayed a step ahead of most of his peers in terms of his offensive approach. Guentzel is a rare combination of elite playmaker and finisher as evidenced by his results in the All Three Zones project. Guentzel was in the 98^th percentile for in-zone shot rates and in the 91^st percentile for in-zone shot assists at even-strength. He is difficult to mark in tight spaces and uses open spaces to his advantage. The Penguins power-play has an expected-goal generation rate that is 2.63 goals per higher when Guentzel is on the ice versus when he is not. His defensive impacts have been notoriously low and bottomed out last year, but are offset by the number of chances, shots, and opportunities he creates at the other end of the ice. The Penguins routinely control the flow of the play and dominate possession when Guentzel makes an appearance. An offseason injury forced him to undergo surgery on his ankle that will cause him to miss at least a portion of the Penguins first few weeks. Overall, the Penguins will be looking at him to generate scoring chances across his entire line when he returns to the lineup.

Rickard Rakell

Rakell’s first full season with the Penguins saw him float around the top six but primarily find a home affixed to the side of Sidney Crosby. Rakell spent a lot of time in battle areas of the ice creating space for his linemates. He also garnered a lot of second and third opportunities and assisted greatly with increasing the shot volume of his line. Per the All Three Zones project, he was in the 97^th percentile of NHL forwards with regard to his impact on in-zone shots. His 28 goals last season were the most he’s scored since the 2017-18 season. He found himself as a regular on the Penguins top power-play unit, especially as a viable net-front option. While no slouch defensively, this hasn’t been his hallmark and he has not killed penalties so far for head coach Mike Sullivan. He has the utility to be able to play alongside either of the top two center options in Pittsburgh due to his straightforward approach and ability to get to the difficult areas. The expectation is that he’ll be back on the top line alongside Crosby again this season, serving in a role that can both grind pucks out and forecheck effectively.

Bryan Rust

Bryan Rust’s 2021-22 season was one that saw him struggle in a variety of offensive buckets. Certainly, his finishing ability was a part of that, but he also suffered a regression in other areas of puck support ability. Rusts’ best seasons have come when he’s carrying the puck and generating opportunities off of the rush, an area where he took a step back again last season. His rush offense put him in the 46^th percentile of NHL forwards per the All Three Zones project. All of these regressions saw Rust score almost a half a point per game less than the previous season and his lowest goal total since 2018-19. The good news is that he’ll have another crack inside the top six for Pittsburgh this season and potentially some power-play time as well. Rust being in the top six means he’ll also get one of Erik Karlsson or Kris Letang to aid him offensively, a duo that will certainly help Rust out from an opportunity perspective. He has strong shot totals to build off of and will have a new landscape of linemates as well.

Reilly Smith

Reilly Smith makes his way to Pittsburgh via a trade with Las Vegas that was the first official move of the new general manager of the Pittsburgh Penguins Kyle Dubas. Smith was remarkably consistent from start to finish last season, netting 26 goals and 56 points in 78 games and following that up with 14 points in 22 playoff games. Smith’s biggest strengths last season were driving to high danger scoring areas and supporting the play via transition both out of the defensive zone and into the offensive zone. Smith is extremely comfortable with the puck on his stick, makes sound decisions with it in transition, and should have no issue playing anywhere within Pittsburgh’s top-six forward group as a result. Early expectations are that he will make his debut flanking Evgeni Malkin, giving him a world class center to feed pucks towards in transition. Smith played on the power-play and penalty kill last season and was effective in both roles, but truly made his way on the penalty kill side, where his presence resulted in the Golden Knights having an expected goals against rate that was over one whole goal less with him on the ice. Smith will certainly get a lot of minutes in the Pittsburgh top six with a lot of talent surrounding him, His simple, north-to-south approach should be a fine addition to that group.

Lars Eller

Lars Eller is another fresh face in the Pittsburgh bottom-six as a part of Kyle Dubas’ reclamation project for that portion of his roster. Eller’s offensive skills have taken a hit as he’s aged, but his defensive impacts are still strong, and the Penguins will be hoping he can help patch up what was an otherwise porous bottom-six forward group. The data from the All Three Zones project paints Eller as a player that still maintains an above-average ability to distribute the puck and I believe we see that on video as well. Eller’s In Zone Shot Assists and High-Danger Shot Assists were both in the 73^rd percentile of NHL forwards. An injury-shortened season two years ago saw his defensive impacts bottom out, but outside of that anomaly, he’s been reliably consistent in his ability to keep the opposition in check. Eller had the second highest rate of shots off of the forecheck and cycle at even-strength. He also boasted strong numbers in the bucket of assisting his defense with exiting the defensive zone, a testament to the attention he pays to that side of the ice. The Penguins won’t be asking him for any miracles as much as they need steady, consistent play that doesn’t end up in the defensive zone for the majority of the time.

Noel Accari

Noel Acciari has been acquired again by Kyle Dubas, this time with the Pittsburgh Penguins on a new three-year contract that will pay him an average of two million dollars per year. Acciari does all of the things well that you’d come to expect from a bottom-six forward. He plays with energy, hits a lot, blocks a lot of shots, and other momentum stealing skillsets. Acciari will likely play a role on the penalty-kill in Pittsburgh as well, an area that needs a rebuild after inconsistent struggles last year and a lack of a sense of urgency. Acciari, like the other players Dubas’ has brought in for the bottom six, boasts strong defensive returns and keeps the puck out of the defensive zone altogether. He is more of a puck retriever than a puck carrier but doesn’t handle the puck in an uncomfortable fashion. His pace and north-to-south approach put him in positions to generate a lot of takeaways for his team. Expect Acciari to feature for Mike Sullivan as a true utility forward that can fill in gaps up and down the lineup without causing great drop off.

Matt Nieto

Matt Nieto arrives to Pittsburgh from free agency on a new two-year contract as a part of a re-built bottom-six forward group in that is one of the reasons the Penguins were on the outside looking in last year. Nieto spent time mixed between San Jose and Colorado, but in both locations, he was a strong defensive forward and took great care of the puck. Nieto plays strong in wall battles and comes away with pucks that elongate possession. His defensive impacts were good for the 91^st percentile of NHL forwards and that is felt even more on the penalty kill where he reduced Colorado’s expected goal against rates by over two goals per hour upon arriving there. Nieto is a 200-foot player that should provide a huge boost to a Penguins bottom-six that needed to be deployed in a careful and particular fashion last year. From a possession and expected goals perspective, Nieto had an uncharacteristically rough go from the perspective of controlling the play. As a member of the Sharks, he had the fourth highest rate of shots off of the forecheck and cycle per the All Three Zones project. Pittsburgh will be hoping he can replicate those results and continue his defensive impacts in their bottom six for the upcoming season.

Defense

Erik Karlsson

Erik Karlsson is coming off of a Norris Trophy winning season that produced offensive results the likes of which we have not seen in some time. He crossed the 100-point threshold in remarkable fashion and exhibited a high level of manipulation with the puck on his stick, devastating opposing skaters and goaltenders alike. In All Three Zones data, Karlsson found himself in the 100^th percentile for primary assists, scoring chance assists, neutral zone shot assists, shot contributions, and defensive finishing, all at even-strength. Karlsson’s defensive impacts are notoriously poor as he’s deployed and functions as more of a “fourth forward” than a defenseman. This isn’t to say that Karlsson is inept defensively. He’s just more unavailable defensively. He has recoverability and gap control to be effective, he’s just usually off pinching somewhere or attempting to kick-start breakouts. Karlsson’s deployment in Pittsburgh should differ drastically from his deployment in San Jose as he’ll be sharing minutes with Letang. This should lessen the burden on Karlsson and give him one of Crosby or Malkin to play with on the forward side, giving him another generational talent to work with there. A repeat of 100+ points may be a big ask, but Pittsburgh can certainly provide the environment for him to make an honest attempt at it.

Kris Letang

Kris Letang is coming off a tumultuous year health-wise that ultimately ended with him receiving a Masterson Trophy for his battle against another stroke and his return to the lineup in the face of those challenges. This year, Letang will once again be a leader of both the team and the defensive group, albeit with a lot of fresh and notorious faces surrounding him. Letang’s previous legacy partner in Brian Dumoulin has moved on as the magic between them had clearly expired. Letang is still an offensive-minded defenseman who supports the play offensively among the league’s best defensemen. This is evidenced by his offensive impacts falling in the 90^th percentile of NHL defensemen last season. On the flip side, Letang struggled defensively and his decision making around joining in on offense was not as sound as previous seasons. This year, he will have a new partner in one of Ryan Graves or Marcus Pettersson and that should afford him an ability to act more innately on his instincts. Letang’s role on the power-play is now a question mark with the arrival of Erik Karlsson. Overall, despite age making its impact on his results, Letang is still an above-average offensive talent that can bolster a power-play and is still elite at retrieving pucks successfully in his defensive zone.

Marcus Pettersson

Marcus Pettersson was a calming influence on the Penguins blueline last season and posted strong defensive returns that by and large flew under the radar. Pettersson’s competence defensively coupled with his ability to calmly and effectively handle and shoot the puck put his projected WAR value for the season in the 91^st percentile of NHL defensemen. That is top line quality results and impressive given Pettersson’s unassuming nature on the ice. A strong skater with sound understanding of the game, Pettersson uses a long reach and gap control to manage zone entries well. Per the All Three Zones project, his success rate on zone exits put him in the 70^th percentile among defensemen, a trait you do not usually see among defensive-minded players. Pettersson showcased a lot of ability in distributing the puck last season as he reached a career high of 28 assists. His even-strength primary assist rate was in the 98^th percentile of NHL defensemen. He led the Penguins in blocks and had the second lowest expected goals against rate on the team. The assumption is that Pettersson may draw the assignment to play with Erik Karlsson, which will certainly be a test of his ability to maintain the defensive blueline and keep strong on-ice results in his own end.

Ryan Graves

Ryan Graves arrives in Pittsburgh via free agency, the first of two big moves from Kyle Dubas to revamp his defensive unit. Graves is a steady, consistent performance that typically showcases his best results defensively, although last year that was a different story. Graves is not a physical defenseman by any means but can handle the puck and use his stick to break up chances effectively. He traditionally has a low number of hits and last season per the All Three Zones project he was the definition of league average regarding his ability to exit the defensive zone with possession and retrieve the puck successfully. Graves is an active shooter that routinely pinches deep to garner high-quality scoring chances. His puck distribution isn’t his strong suit, and he was in the 8^th percentile among defensemen with regard to his ability to set up scoring chances with passes. Graves will likely be tasked with playing alongside Kris Letang and while that will certainly come with an increase of quality of competition, it should also lower the burden on him offensively. Overall, expect Graves to participate in every zone, support transition well, and provide a safe presence to the top six of the Penguins defensive group.

Goaltender

Tristan Jarry

The Pittsburgh Penguins finally did it – during the 2022-23 season, the perennial playoff team fell out of contention and missed the postseason for the first time since 2006, with starter Tristan Jarry’s “good enough” performance not quite hitting that milestone for the first time since he took over as the team’s number one. He wasn’t actively bad, but the aging core Pittsburgh trotted out combined with some ill-timed injuries and some surprisingly strong performances in the Metro out of Long Island and New Jersey to push both Pennsylvania teams onto the golf course a little early this year.

Jarry does an effective job bouncing back every time he puts up a year of slightly underwhelming numbers, and he’s never truly dropped into actively bad territory – which is good news for Penguins fans who hope the team will be able to retool and return to contention this year. But curiously enough, Jarry will have to head out into the crease this year as the far more reliable option – because he has a reclamation project in Alex Nejedlkovic joining him as his new tandem partner following Casey DeSmith’s departure.

Projected starts: 55-60

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – NEW JERSEY DEVILS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 20:15:27 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - MARCH 15: New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes (86) looks up ice during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on March 15, 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Jack Hughes

A rising star, the first pick in the 2019 Draft, has been rapidly improving and busted out for 56 points in 49 games last season. Hughes had started generating chances but could not finish early in his career and as his shot improved, the point production followed. Extraordinary confidence is part of what makes Hughes special and is what should drive him to greater heights, but he also needs to get more durable as he matures. A dislocated shoulder and a knee injury contributed to Hughes missing 33 games last season, but the 21-year-old came out of the Christmas break and produced 48 points in his last 36 games. If the Devils are going to be a competitive team, some of that will come from riding Hughes’ development to stardom. A point-per-game over a full season is an entirely reasonable expectation and Hughes if one of the rare players who has 100-point upside.

Jesper Bratt

A 24-year-old who has provided phenomenal value as a sixth-round pick, busting out offensively last season for 73 points in 76 games. Bratt is a consistent offensive threat, and his results last season were outstanding – his 2.90 points per 60 minutes ranked 17^th and his 1.22 goals per 60 minutes ranked 39^th. This production does not come by accident. Bratt has excellent anticipation and is strong on the puck in the offensive zone, equally adept at setting up plays or burying the puck in the back of the net. Bratt’s shooting percentage has varied significantly (13.0%, 8.8.%, 15.8%, 6.9%, 13.2% in his five NHL seasons) so that will play a role in setting expectations for his 2022-2023 season. The trend would be for it to fall this season so 60 points would be a reasonable low-end but a point per game over a full season is not out of range, either.

Nico Hischier

The Devils’ 23-year-old captain broke through for a career high 60 points last season, but he is known as much for his strong two-way play and that reliability makes him a strong complement to Hughes down the middle of the ice. Hischier could be more aggressive as a shooter, but his overall skill and defensive conscience makes him more valuable than might be widely known and his confidence with the puck is growing, which allows him to control the puck more effectively in traffic. That defensive conscience means that Hischier will get more difficult checking assignments and start more shifts in the defensive zone, so he is not deployed as favorably as Hughes, but that makes sense. Hughes has the higher offensive ceiling and Hischier can play the 200-foot game. Staying healthy has been an issue for Hischier, as he has missed at least a dozen games in each of the past four seasons. He might be able to match or surpass last season’s 60 points but that will be dependent on whether he can stay in the lineup.

Ondrej Palat

Consistent and dependable throughout his career with the Tampa Bay Lightning, which included playing a prominent role on two Stanley Cup champions, the 31-year-old winger has finished with at least 40 points in seven of his nine NHL seasons. As a proven performer who has played tough minutes, Palat will be a big help to the Devils’ young forward core. He won’t be fazed by any high-pressure situations and if he plays with Hughes, a 50-point season would be within Palat’s grasp, maybe a little lower if he skates on Hischier’s wing. While Palat was overshadowed at times by the stars in Tampa Bay, he also rose to the occasion in the playoffs, scoring 27 goals in 71 playoff games over the past three seasons. If the Devils can get to the postseason, it would be nice to have someone like Palat, who knows what to do when they get there.

Dawson Mercer

A promising rookie season ended with Mercer tallying 42 points in 82 games, though he managed just one goal in the last 11 games of the season. Mercer played a good portion of his rookie season at center, and won just 35.4% of his faceoffs, but moved to the wing and, despite his late-season slump, that should allow him more offensive freedom because he has good vision and should thrive with skilled linemates. If that means skating on Jack Hughes’ wing, that’s a pretty good place for a second year forward looking to break out offensively. As a young player, Mercer offers a higher degree of potential variance when forecasting his point totals for this season. Some improvement on his rookie season, maybe to around 50 points, would be a quality step forward, but if he is a really good fit in that spot, maybe he could score even more.

Yegor Sharangovich

After a strong finish to his rookie season and a quality sophomore campaign, the 23-year-old winger has put up 31 goals in his past 90 games, and his 1.11 goals per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time last season had him scoring at the same rate as Evgeni Malkin and Tomas Hertl. Sharangovich has a quick release and goes hard to the net, so his opportunities to score are based on positioning, anticipation, and then linemates that do a good job feeding him the puck in scoring position. Sharangovich deserves credit for putting himself in good positions to score and the 24-year-old should be expected to contribute 25 goals and 45-50 points.

Tomas Tatar

A heady veteran winger, Tatar struggled in his first season with the Devils, producing 30 points in 76 games, the lowest per-game scoring rate of his career, thanks in part to an 11-game scoreless drought in the middle of the season. The 31-year-old is still a solid play driving winger, and that can’t be ignored, but for a Devils team that sorely needed contributions from skilled wingers, Tatar’s performance was disappointing. He can still fill a complementary role and the opportunity should still be there for him to produce, maybe not like his best years in Montreal, but better than last season. Taking into account that Tatar has recorded three seasons with more than 55 points, counting on more than 40 points this season would appear to be entirely reasonable.

Erik Haula

Getting traded to New Jersey lands Haula with the seventh team of his career and comes after he scored 18 goals and 44 points for the Bruins last season, both the second highest totals of his career. He had a strong finish to the season, with 10 goals and 19 points in his last 19 games. Haula also recorded a career-high 129 hits, and the ability to provide secondary scoring as well as play with a bit of an edge makes him a nice fit in a third-line center role for the Devils. Last season was one of Haula’s best seasons so it would be optimistic to count on that production again. If he stays healthy, though, 35 points would be an achievable target for the veteran forward.

Andreas Johnsson

Although the 27-year-old winger contributed 35 points last season and it seems like he is still going to be battling for ice tme, Johnsson has enough speed and skill to play a complementary role on a scoring line. His instincts are decent but his play without the puck needs improvement and that could prevent him from handling a bigger role, especially now that the Devils have improved forward depth. That uncertainty over Johnsson’s role on the team tempers any expectations for his production, so a total around the 35 points that he produced last season should be a fair baseline for expectations, with room for variance in either direction.

DEFENSE

Dougie Hamilton

A prized free agent signing a year ago, Hamilton is a rare talent, a smooth skating 6-foot-6 right shot defenseman. Although he had just nine goals last season, Hamilton averaged more than three shots on goal per game for the fifth straight season. He gets hammered by accusations of being soft and it doesn’t help matters if his defensive performance slips, as it did in his first season with the Devils, but Hamilton is typically an elite offensive defenseman whose puck-moving ability tends to offset anything that he gives back on the defensive end. Injuries have caught up to Hamilton in two of the past three seasons, but he was very durable before that, so if he is relatively healthy this season, he should be relied upon to score at least a dozen goals and 45-50 points, with potential to go significantly higher. In his last two seasons with Carolina, for example, Hamilton put up 82 points in 102 games.

Damon Severson

A 28-year-old right shot defenseman who just put up a career-high 46 points last season, Severson is a potential free agent in the summer of 2023. The Devils typically get better results with Severson on the ice, at least in terms of shots, but he has yet to have a season in the NHL in which his team outscores the opposition during 5-on-5 play. Severson has been very durable, and in a contract year should be poised for significant production, in the range of 40 points, maybe a little more.

Ryan Graves

Even though Graves is 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, he is not an especially physical option on the blueline, but he is a steady top-four defenseman and that matters a lot for a team that is seeking a path to credibility. His ice time has climbed steadily since he arrived in the league, reaching a career-high 20:43 time on ice per game last season. Graves recorded a career-high 28 points last season and with 135 hits, he did fill the stat sheet a little bit. Scoring is not necessarily going to drive Graves’ value, but he ought to be capable of 25 points and then add to that with hits and blocked shots to make him worth considering in deep leagues.

John Marino

Acquired in a trade that sent Ty Smith to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Marino is a strong skater and capable puck handler who gets the breakout started with a quality first pass but is not much of a factor in terms of physical play. At the same time, he is particularly adept at defending the blueline, and that reliability should make him a valuable contributor in New Jersey. Unless he seizes a bigger role than anticipated, Marino will likely produce 25-30 points this season and without significant peripheral stats, that will serve to limit his fantasy appeal.

GOALTENDING

Mackenzie Blackwood

The New Jersey Devils are growing dangerously close to turning Mackenzie Blackwood into the next John Gibson; after debuting at the NHL level with an impressive game and an admirable confidence level, he’s struggled more and more behind the lottery-dwelling New Jersey lineup each season. This past year was perhaps the worst of all; plagued by a lingering heel injury that left him ginger in the crease and slow to move, Blackwood was limited to just 25 games all year and spent months at a stretch on the team’s long-term injured reserve list.

The club gave very little information regarding what exactly was nagging at Blackwood, so it’s hard to get a read on just what kind of a timetable he’ll need to return to full form. With everything from calcaneal fractures to achilles damage and plantar fasciitis up for grabs as possible problems the goaltender could have faced, the Devils could have Blackwood back at his best as soon as the year begins, or they could be looking at a lengthy return-to-form timeline for the formerly-established number one. The good news is that the team brought Vitek Vanecek in to ease the workload, offering both a younger source of reinforcement (therefore one less likely to get hampered by wear and tear issues) and a goaltender who has more promise to remain a legitimate tandem option than some of the major-minor tweeners the team has tried to deploy in the last few years. There’s less pressure for Blackwood to play through health-related troubles with Vanecek sitting on the bench than there was with backups like Keith Kinkaid and Jon Gillies, which should hopefully ease some of the pressure he faced and allow him to perform at peak capacity. That’s good news for fans – because when he was at full strength, Blackwood’s game forced shooters to show their hands and come to him in a way that made him hard to trick and overthrow.

Projected starts: 55-60

Vitek Vanecek

Washington fans likely hadn’t predicted that they’d spend their 2021-22 season hotly debating whether the team was in better hands with heir apparent Ilya Samsonov or fellow draft-and-developee Vitek Vanecek. And worse, they likely hadn’t predicted that they’d be debating it so hotly not because both goaltenders were doing so well, but because both were continuing to struggle so consistently.

The lukewarm outcome of their year left the Capitals opting to cut ties with both of their starters this summer, though, and New Jersey was one of the two teams that decided to step in and offer their services to attempt a reclamation project. They’ll enter their 2022-23 campaign hoping that Vanecek, who fell shy of recording quality starts in over half his games last year, can bounce back and offer some consistent support behind MacKenzie Blackwood. There’s a hope that the addition of some experience in Blackwood will give Vanecek some direction, and that taking some of the pressure off should enable him to take a step back and tighten back up some of his game moving forward. But it’s hard to really figure out just how much of Vanecek’s game was growing pains, and how much was struggles to read the plays happening in front of him; while he didn’t get quite as goaded into oversliding and shifting out of the net as Samsonov did behind the Washington defense, his issues in coverage had more to do with missed positioning and inconsistent work with his hands. His missed goals came in inches, which make it harder to discern how many were mistakes and how many were simply the result of getting set and positioned off-angle from where he really needed to be.

Projected starts: 25-30

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: COLORADO VS. VEGAS – TOP TWO REGULAR SEASON TEAMS FACE OFF

Shayna Goldman — Sun, 30 May 2021 14:00:42 +0000

Round 2 Preview: Avalanche vs. Golden Knights

The Avalanche and Golden Knights seemed destined for a Round 2 matchup to determine the best of the West this season. And now the top two teams in regular season points are facing off. So, will this matchup live up to the hype?

The President Trophy-winning Avalanche are loaded with talent, so they’re rightfully the favorite in most matchups they could face postseason. Colorado versus St. Louis projected to be one of the most lopsided series of Round 1, and the result proved that to be true with a quick four game sweep.

Vegas, on the other hand, was the favorite against a Minnesota team that finally had a more electric offense from years past. This was a much closer series and took all seven games. The Golden Knights were finally able to close it out in their third attempt, as the Wild forced a Game 6 and 7.

How do these teams’ matchup after Round 1?

While the Avalanche led the league (with the Golden Knights just trailing), in 5-on-5 shot generation during the regular season, Vegas led in expected goals for (with Colorado finishing third). During the postseason, Colorado’s been far and away the best team in the league in both, while the Golden Knights are closer to the middle of the pack. A lot had to do with their opponent.

During the regular season, the Avalanche’s 5-on-5 expected goal generation was 10 percent stronger than league average, with shots frequently coming in the area in front of the crease, as well as from the blue line. In the playoffs, Colorado was expected to score at a rate of 2.95 per 60 which was a +.12 boost from the regular season, although it’s worth noting that small samples (just four games worth) can skew the results. As the red areas show on the HockeyViz heat map below, their shots came from all over the ice.

Via HockeyViz

The offensive boost, led by the outstanding play of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog, can be attributed to the Avalanche taking their game to the next level when it mattered most so far this season. During the regular season, Colorado’s top line was one of the best lines in terms of both quality and quantity offense. That group was able to exploit the defensive weaknesses of the Blues. St. Louis’ 5-on-5 defense was seven percent below average in the regular season, and to have any real shot in this series, they needed Jordan Binnington to be perfect.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/COL-V-VGK-Video-1.mp4

Now, that offense is going to go up against the Golden Knights’ defense.

Vegas is a better defensive team than St. Louis, and generally protected the home plate area fairly well — where they fell short this season is right in front of the crease. And that’s an area where the Avalanche often shoot from.

What hurts the Golden Knights even more is that they’re still without Brayden McNabb, who formed a really strong shutdown defensive pair with Shea Theodore. They limited their opponents to just 1.64 expected goals against during the regular season and didn’t shut down their own team’s offense in the process; Vegas still had a 61 percent expected goals rate with them on the ice. Without McNabb, Nick Holden’s slotted in his place; that new-look pair in Round 1 limited their opponents to 1.03 expected goals against in their 45 5-on-5 minutes. The Golden Knights rocked a 72 (!) percent expected goals rate with them on the ice. But against a team as offensively skilled as the Avalanche, it wouldn’t hurt to have their best ready to go.

Still, Vegas managed to be pretty stingy in Round 1. They were, however, playing a Wild team that was below average offensively. Where Minnesota was able to take advantage of the Golden Knights played to their strengths and their opponent’s weakness: the area in front of the net, often with rebound shots.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/COL-V-VGK-Video-2.mp4

The heat map below shows the Wild’s offensive generation (red) and the Golden Knights shot suppression (blue).

Via HockeyViz

Vegas did adjust their tactics though to try to counteract the Wild’s scoring chance generation. Marc-Andre Fleury, particularly in Game 4, was playing the puck really often to stop Minnesota’s forwards from attacking the net with rebounds and second chances. Those passes up the ice from the netminder helped his team transition quicker from defense to offense, and generate rush opportunities that their game thrived on all season.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/COL-V-VGK-Video-3.mp4

Playing the puck can be a high-risk, high-reward strategy — and against a team as dominant as the Avalanche, that risk may not outweigh the award in Round 2. They can’t afford to give them an inch.

Instead, they may prefer that Fleury just focuses on playing to his strengths by extending his stellar 2020-21 campaign. He saved a league-leading 19.2 more goals than expected in all situations in 36 games in the regular season (5.11 against Colorado in seven games), plus another 2.82 in seven games in Round 1.

On the other side of the equation, there’s the Golden Knights’ offense against Colorado’s defense.

In ways, the best defense is just possessing puck and staying in control, and that’s what the Avalanche thrive at. But when the opponents attempt to generate offense in the Av’s defensive end, they’re one of the better teams at shutting it down. They led the league in the regular season, and teams in Round 1, at limiting both shots and quality chances against.

Cale Makar and Devon Toews were neck-and-neck with the McNabb-Theodore in expected goals rate against, but they drive play better than the Vegas duo. Plus, along with Makar-Toews, there’s Sam Girard who is right up there playing Norris-caliber hockey; the second pair of Girard with Ryan Graves was also stellar on both ends of the ice throughout the regular season. Both pairs have a 67 percent expected goals rate to start the playoffs.

St. Louis wasn’t able to create much against them — just a rate of 1.87 expected goals for. That was due to both Colorado’s possession game and shot limitation, and the Blues’ below average offensive generation. During the regular season, they mustered just 2.06 expected goals for per 60 which was 18 percent weaker than league average. The Avalanche, on the other hand, barely allow offense in the home plate area in front of the net; they were 27 percent stronger than league average this season. Their regular season defense is shown on the left, while their postseason defense/the Blues offense is pictured on the right via HockeyViz.

Via HockeyViz

Those two pairs will likely see a lot of the Golden Knights’ top-six. A healthy Max Pacioretty completes a strong first line and adds a massive offensive boost. Mark Stone is outstanding on both ends of the ice and makes up for the fact that Vegas doesn’t have an elite first line center. Chandler Stephenson, though, has had a breakout season, and is a key part of this line. They were one of the best lines at creating offense in the regular season, and have been reunited now that Pacioretty returned in Game 7 of Round 1.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/COL-V-VGK-Video-4.mp4

Below them, there’s the mainstay trio of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith. That depth on the second line benefits Vegas, because Colorado will be without their second line center, Nazem Kadri for six games of this series unless his appeal successfully reduces that suspension.

In Round 1, that group ran into a stingy Minnesota defense, who limited the offense they were able to create in front of the net. Colorado’s a much different team stylistically than the Wild but will nonetheless be a challenge. That’s why having Pacioretty, one of the Golden Knights’ best offensive generators, back is crucial.

Via HockeyViz

Past the Avalanche defense, there’s Philipp Grubauer, who essentially met expectations in Round 1 after saving 4.26 goals above expectations in all situations in the regular season (4.76 against Vegas, specifically).

Vegas versus Colorado has all the makings to be an exciting series between two stellar teams. The Avalanche are playing on another level this season, so they should have the edge — but this won’t be nearly as easy as Round 1.

PREDICTION: COLORADO IN SEVEN

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

VEGAS - MARK STONE, SHEA THEODORE AND REILLY SMITH

COLORADO – DEVON TOEWS, ANDRE BURAKOVSKY, AND VALERI NICHUSKIN

Data via Evolving-Hockey.com and HockeyViz.com

Central Division Training Camp News

Ryan Dadoun — Sun, 30 Sep 2018 13:05:12 +0000

Chicago Blackhawks

Corey Crawford

The single biggest question surrounding the Chicago Blackhawks throughout the summer was what the future held for Corey Crawford. His last game in 2017-18 was on Dec. 23 and the specifics of his injury were never made clear during that campaign. What little news we did get about Crawford over the summer did have an optimistic tone to it, but once training camp actually started, everyone seemed to get a little more cautious.

It was confirmed that the injury Crawford has been dealing with all this time is a concussion. He isn’t quite ready to return from it yet either and at this point it would be surprising to see him play in the season opener. The news isn’t grim though. He hasn’t taken part in a full team practice yet, but Crawford has been on the ice in full gear, taking shots. Hopefully he’ll continue to trend in the right direction.

In the meantime, Cam Ward will fill the void. He’s not an ideal starter, but he certainly has a lot of experience in that role, so he’ll provide the Blackhawks with a better Plan B than they had last season. That statement isn’t meant to be too harsh on last season’s Plan B, Anton Forsberg, though. Forsberg didn’t exactly shine when thrust into a bigger role in 2017-18, but he also came into that campaign with just nine career NHL starts under his belt. If Crawford is healthy, then Forsberg will head to the AHL, but until then he’ll get another chance with the Blackhawks as Ward’s understudy.

Outside of the goaltending situation, there isn’t a ton of roster uncertainty regarding the Blackhawks, but they do need to make a decision on Dylan Sikura. He’s been battling for a final spot and was given a golden opportunity to play with Artem Anisimov and Nick Schmaltz and on the top power-play unit Thursday. Sikura got knocked down to the fourth line before the game ended though, which probably isn’t a good sign. John Hayden replaced Sikura alongside Anisimov and Schmaltz and looked good. Just as an aside, when the season starts, Patrick Kane is expected to play with Anisimov and Schmaltz, but he was a healthy scratch on Thursday so that the bubble players could get more of a chance.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche have made one of their tougher cuts when they decided to send defenseman Ryan Graves to the AHL. Avalanche coach Jared Bednar liked what he saw out of Graves, but there just isn’t room for him on the blueline right now. Bednar did specifically mention that Graves put himself in the mix to be a call up at some point, so we might see him again in 2018-19 in the event of an injury.

Another player that Bednar has liked in training camp is Logan O'Connor, who is still in the running to earn the Avalanche’s final roster spot. O'Connor would be making the leap straight from the University of Denver after scoring seven goals and 21 points in 41 games last season. He was never drafted, but the Avalanche inked him to an entry-level contract back in July and GM Joe Sakic praised his “leadership, energy, and speed” at the time.

Easily the biggest story with Colorado though is its goaltending. Semyon Varlamov was the Avalanche’s number one goaltender last season and was solid in that role, but the Avalanche acquired Philipp Grubauer, who is ready to be a number one after years of being the Capitals’ overqualified backup. In the long run, the job will probably go to Grubauer given that Varlamov is entering the final season of his contract, but who is the Avalanche’s number one right now?

The Avalanche would argue that they are both the number one goaltender, but at some point, one of them is likely to actually take that position. We don’t know who the opening game starter will be yet, but even that probably won’t be too telling as whoever warms the bench for Game 1 will probably start in Game 2. We’ve might have to wait weeks or even longer to see which one differentiates himself from the other or if Bednar demonstrates a clear preference.

Dallas Stars

Tyler Seguin had been dealing with a minor injury that kept him out of preseason contests from Sept. 18 until his return on Friday. There was never a lot of drama surrounding that situation because it never seemed like he was in serious jeopardy of missing the season opener, but given how important he is to the Stars, it was nice to get further confirmation of his availability going forward by seeing him get into that exhibition contest.

Unfortunately, Dallas still might not be entering the season at 100%. Defenseman Stephen Johns didn’t participate in Friday’s practice and has been frequently absent due to an undisclosed injury. With each practice Johns misses, it becomes increasingly likely that his recovery will end up bleeding into the regular season.

In the meantime, Gavin Bayreuther has been given a long look with Friday’s contest being his fifth preseason game of 2018. Bayreuther is coming off an encouraging campaign in the AHL where he scored seven goals and 32 points in 71 contests. However, Bayreuther’s offensive talents might not be enough as Stars coach Jim Montgomery has noted that they need him to be more of a defender. Still, if Johns isn’t available at the start of the season, perhaps Bayreuther will get an extended opportunity. Joel Hanley is also an option and he’s certainly the veteran alternative with 22 NHL games 259 AHL contests under his belt.

Minnesota Wild

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - FEBRUARY 25: Minnesota Wild Defenceman Ryan Suter (20) skates with the puck during a NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and San Jose Sharks on February 25, 2018 at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN. The Wild defeated the Sharks 3-2 in overtime.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

The Minnesota Wild dealt with more than its fair share of injuries last season, but perhaps this season they’ll be a little luckier. It certainly was a good sign that Ryan Suter, whose season ended prematurely due to a fractured ankle, not only made his preseason debut on Wednesday, but logged a healthy 21:22 minutes. He reported afterwards that he felt fine, so barring a last minute surprise he should be in the lineup for the season opener.

As a whole, the Wild appear to be basically healthy going into the season, but there are a couple minor exceptions. Luke Kunin hasn’t been cleared for contact yet, but he hopes to get the OK soon. Even when he’s healthy though, he’s expected to report to AHL Iowa. Gustav Olofsson is dealing with a shoulder injury sustained on Sept. 17, but he has at least resumed skating.

With the team largely healthy, there aren’t many roster battles to speak of. Perhaps the one of most consequence is the fight for the backup gig between Alex Stalock and Andrew Hammond, but it would be a little surprising at this point if Hammond ended up getting the gig over Stalock.

One player that probably would have made the team regardless, but has nevertheless had an encouraging training camp is Joel Eriksson Ek. Charlie Coyle has noticed that Eriksson Ek is a lot more confident now that he’s going into his sophomore season and the two should end up playing on a line together. If you’re looking for a player that could take a step up this season with Minnesota, Eriksson Ek is someone to keep in mind.

Nashville Predators

Eeli Tolvanen was someone that was cited over the summer as a potential 2018-19 Calder Trophy contender, but that was contingent on him being able to land a meaningful role on the Predators, which would be a tall order given their depth. Ultimately he fell short of that goal and the Predators decided to send him to AHL Milwaukee rather than have him stick around and play on the fourth line. Given that Tolvanen is just 19-years-old and needs to adjust to North American hockey after spending 2017-18 primarily in the KHL, the decision to have him start in the minors where he can get big minutes makes a lot of sense for his development.

There’s a wrinkle though: Tolvanen has a clause in his contract that would allow him to return to the KHL if he plays at least 10 games in the AHL. Will he exercise it? That remains to be seen. Certainly the Predators hope he doesn’t, not just because he would be out of their control for the duration of his KHL stint, but also because it would be counterproductive to their goal of having him adapt to the smaller ice.

Outside of the resolved (at least for now) question about Tolvanen, there weren’t many question marks for Nashville going into training camp, which is to be expected of a team that went 53-18-11 and saw minimal turnover during the summer.

We’re waiting on word regarding the fate of Austin Watson. He was given a 27-game suspension by the NHL after pleading no contest to misdemeanor domestic assault. He appealed to that suspension to a neutral arbitrator on Wednesday and it might be a couple weeks before a decision is handed down.

St. Louis Blues

23 MAY 2016: St. Louis Blues center Robby Fabbri (15) takes a shot and scores against the San Jose Sharks during game 5 of the Western Conference Final of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scottrade Center. (Photo by Jimmy Simmons/Icon Sportswire)

No matter what team you root for, you have to want only good things for Robby Fabbri. The 22-year-old showed such promise, but injuries have kept him from playing since Feb. 4. He was healthy coming into training camp with his sights set on resuming his career, but then he left a preseason game on Sept. 23 with a grade 1 groin strain. The good news is that he has already started to skate again and hopefully he’ll have much better luck on the injury front going forward.

Outside of Fabbri, the Blues are relatively healthy as we round the corner towards the regular season. Alexander Steen and Vince Dunn have been dealing with upper-body injuries, but they recently resumed practicing with the Blues, so they might be fine for the opener.

St. Louis did have an eventful summer though, so you might be wondering what the top lines look like now. That’s always going to be subject to change of course, but Friday’s preseason game seems like a good gauge in that regard. The top line was Patrick Maroon, Ryan O'Reilly, and Vladimir Tarasenko, the second line was Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn, and Jordan Kyrou (probably filling in for Steen, who didn’t play), and the third line was David Perron, Tyler Bozak, and Sammy Blais (who might be replaced by Fabbri if he’s healthy). Again, take that with a grain of salt, but there you go.

Winnipeg Jets

The Jets were one of those teams coming off an amazing season that justifiably had little in the way of openings going into training camp. That’s not to say that they had nothing to settle during the preseason. The Jets and Tobias Enstrom parted ways over the summer, so Dustin Byfuglien needed a new partner.

Winnipeg toyed with putting Tyler Myers in that spot, but that would have involved Myers shifting to the left side and that experiment wasn’t encouraging during the preseason. Given that, Byfuglien is likely to be paired with Joe Morrow instead. This will be Morrow’s first full season with Winnipeg after being acquired from Montreal on Feb. 26, but did get some ice time with Byfuglien in 2017-18, so this won’t be an entirely new job for him.

One other story of note is Patrik Laine dropping 14 pounds over the summer. That’s unusual to hear given that most young players need to bulk up, but Laine’s a big guy and the hope here is that he’ll be faster now. He hasn’t ended up scoring in the preseason, but there was evidence of his increased speed, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out over the season. As it was, he was one of the league’s top snipers, so if this change can give him a little something extra, then we might be in for a pretty special season out of him.

Colorado Avalanche Prospect System Overview

Tom Dorsa — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:15:11 +0000

The Colorado Avalanche are in a pretty unusual position right now. They do not possess the depth of scoring and blue line talent to make consistent postseason runs, but their surprising qualification for the 2018 playoffs, behind former Calder Trophy winner and league-MVP finalist Nathan MacKinnon, indicates that Colorado has the young talent necessary for contention.

A look at their prospect system says otherwise. With their former top prospects such as MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen already up and contributing greatly to the NHL club, the system does not have the same depth as it should. Combine that with some boneheaded trades (to be fair, some really good ones, we'll get to that) like throwing prospects away for late-season rentals, as well as poor late-round drafting, and no prospect pool will remain deep for long.

What the Avalanche have is one top-pair defense prospect with superstar potential, that being Cale Makar, then a massive crop of guys with role-player ceilings, then a complete bag of unknowns following up. It might be a positive to not have many Grade A stars on the club for financial reasons, but for pure talent and success reasons, it's a flat tire.

Luckily for the Avalanche, general manager Joe Sakic can act with impunity as a fan favorite, making trades and signings at his liking. Sometimes these deals work out very well, such as the Sven Andrighetto and Samuel Girard acquisitions, the Tyson Jost draft pick, or the Alex Kerfoot signing, transactions that made instant impacts on the club. Sakic has some experience in completely turning the franchise around and looks to do the same here.

Another thing that will help mightily is the expansion of the American Hockey League from 30 teams to 31, meaning the Avs return to manning their own farm affiliate, the Colorado Eagles, rather than sharing the San Antonio Rampage roster with St. Louis.

Though Makar, their top prospect, is still outside of the pro system for now, guys like second-ranked Conor Timmins and third-ranked Vladislav Kamenev will not have to worry about ice time or coaching disputes as Colorado receives the AHL expansion franchise. The development of guys like A.J. Greer and Nicolas Meloche were directly affected by the shared franchise in San Antonio.

If the Avalanche want to prove that 2017-18 was no fluke, and that they are ready to be regular postseason contenders, these are the guys that will have to help.

Cale Makar

1 Cale Makar, D (4th overall, 2017. Last year: 1st) Some scouts say Cale Makar could have gone first overall in the 2017 NHL Draft, and with his skillset, it is difficult to disagree. He made headlines a few month ago by electing to remain with UMASS-Amherst as a sophomore this season, rather than joining the Avalanche pro ranks, but fans in Denver will keep an eye on the highly-coveted defenseman nonetheless. Combining blazing wheels, insane vision, and a right-handed shot will make for an instant NHL-caliber blueliner, but Makar is much more, and has been the most purely skilled player on every team, and at every level, he has played on. He is a shifty, elusive skater with unbelievable raw skating power, coupling his mobility with dynamic offensive skills such as his swift, deceptive hands, nifty stutter-steps and dekes, and the occasional fake pass or shot that sends opposing defenders skating in circles. There really isn't much for him to improve upon, and he could hold his own in the NHL right now. He is a smart player who allows plays to develop with his ever-improving hockey sense and does not often force bad puck plays going up the ice, and is surprisingly physical for a 5-11" defender.

2 Conor Timmins, D (32nd overall, 2017. Last year: 3rd) He does not possess the same superstar ceiling as Makar, but the next best prospect defenseman in the Avs’ system is arguably a safer bet to be a consistent NHL contributor. The first pick in 2017's second round, Timmins outplayed 2018 first-rounder Rasmus Sandin on the blueline of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, posting a 0.87 points per game mark (36 in 41 games). For a player drafted so high on account of his sturdiness and responsibility, his offensive output is pretty solid. A very versatile defenseman, Timmins skates well with his athleticism being a driving force, has solid vision that makes for good first stretch passes, and has sneakily great shooting abilities; he can bomb them from the blueline, but also slide down into the play to find an open lane and score. His only issue at this juncture is patience and decisiveness with the puck, but at 19-years-old, he is about as complete as any defensive prospect in hockey. He is set to make the transition to the AHL this season.

3 Vladislav Kamenev, C (Trade: Nov. 5, 2017 [Nashville]. Last year: 3rd [Nashville]) The Matt Duchene trade continues to look better for Colorado as time elapses. Though Vladislav Kamenev has had a rough go at it in his short NHL time, including a broken arm in his Avalanche debut, his potential is another part of a clear winning trade for Joe Sakic and crew. After putting up near a point per game in his third AHL season, this one with Milwaukee (NSH) and San Antonio (COL), Kamenev cracked the Avs lineup sortly after the trade, indicating a sense of confidence from the coaching staff. A very smart, reliable center, the Russian former second-rounder is often used to protect late leads and kill penalties, something his skillset could allow him to do regularly at the NHL level. He is a solid skater with above average speed and good balance, and has the puck skills to generate scoring chances even when he can't beat a defender with his wheels. With good pure size (6-2", 194 lbs), it is more than likely that he will become a better player with the puck as he gets more NHL time. He is expected to compete for a roster spot in training camp.

4 Martin Kaut, RW (16th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) Martin Kaut is a very intriguing prospect. Without looking at his gameplay traits, he can impress just on account of the fact that he played alongside first-rounders Martin Necas and Filip Zadina at the WJC and was constantly developing plays and setting those two up, which is not easy to do at that level. He was also playing at the highest level of Czech hockey at 17 and 18 years old, impressing many along the way, racking up nine goals and seven assists in 38 games there last season. It is on account of that proven performance level that the Avalanche used their first-round pick on the young winger, as his maturity and hockey IQ are unmatched when considering his age and competition level. He is not a very good skater, though he is technically sound and has enough quickness to his feet to keep up with faster skaters. His biggest asset is the mental side of his game, as he processes things at a lightning fast pace and rarely makes a bad decision, coupling that with his effort on defense, where his promise really comes to light in coverage and on the backcheck. He may not be the most dynamic player, but there is a lot to like about Kaut, whose smarts project him as a middle-six winger at the highest level.

Shane Bowers

5 Shane Bowers, C (Trade: Nov. 5, 2017 [Ottawa]. Last year: 4th [Ottawa]) A power forward acquired from the trade that netted Duchene and Kamanev, Shane Bowers saw no drop in productivity this season as he made the jump from the USHL to the NCAA, scoring 17 goals and adding 15 assists with Boston University as a freshman. A former late first-rounder was one of a few impact prospects acquired from the Duchene trade, he might have the highest ceiling of the pack if he can round his game out. A strong and powerful skater despite of average size (6-0", 178 lbs), Bowers heads right to the net with the puck on his stick, and displays deft balance when making his way to the goal which makes him a handful for opponents. He has some intriguing, wonderful creativity and the hockey IQ to light a match on it all, making scintillating puck plays with ease. He is also dependable in his own end, and very physical when the task calls for it, but plays mostly a clean game (14 PIM in 41 games last season). There is a lot of risk/reward with Bowers, such as how his power forward game will translate to the bigger, faster NHL and how he can produce with a merely average shooting ability, but his ceiling makes him one of the most interesting prospects in the system.

6 Sampo Ranta, RW (78th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) The Sioux City Musketeers triggerman racked up 23 goals and 14 assists in as a second-year player in the USHL, finishing second in points on a team thin on dynamic talent. An easy comparison for Ranta would be Nashville prospect Eeli Tolvanen, given their shared native land and USHL club, but stylistically, there are not far off, as Ranta raises eyebrows with his shot and skating over anything else. Used as a power-play shooter, he showed off the blazing slap shot he possesses often with the Musketeers, although he was not solely a shooter, as his agility, edgework, and speedy momentum allowed him to weave through traffic and find open teammates for scoring chances. He is also a fairly reliable two-way player, one whose effort on backchecks and defensive zone coverage is pretty impressive. Ranta has pure skills, but whether he is a good, NHL-caliber player or just the best player on a bad junior team is the biggest question going forward.

7 Tyler Weiss, LW (109th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) An extremely lightweight winger, Tyler Weiss fell to round four of the most recent draft with concerns about his physical stature and whether he has the inherent skills to overcome it. The Raleigh, North Carolina native has one thing that skill or physicality cannot match, that being pure determination and drive, an attribute that helps him constantly improve in ways that keep turning heads. With the U.S. National Team Development Program, he chipped in 12 goals, 19 assists, and 31 points in mostly a bottom-six role, and now he goes to a system that has made use out of smaller, lighter guys like Samuel Girard and Sven Andrighetto. Weiss is a very quick skater with loads of agility and a certain elusiveness that comes with undersized forwards, using his quick acceleration and short, rapid strides to weave through defenders and enter the offensive zone without a challenge. He does not have much weight behind his shot, but carries more playmaking skills than goal-scoring attributes anyway. He plays with a very scrappy, push-and-shove game away from the puck, and brings an infectious energy to the bench. Colorado can see how his game, despite his diminutive stature, can translate to more physical levels as he plays with Nebraska-Omaha this season.

8 Justus Annunen, G (64th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) Easily the top goaltender in the Finnish junior ranks last season, Justus Annunen shot up draft boards with his mix of size, athleticism, and foot movement, hearing his name called in the early third round in June. At 6-4" and 215 lbs, he utilized his big frame to put up a 2.31 GAA, .907 Sv%, and even better numbers in 14 postseason games (1.83, .935%). In addition, he backstopped the gold medal-winning Finland squad at the Under-18 Ivan Hlinka tournament, and joins Liiga powerhouse Karpat next season at just 18 years old. His lateral movement is that of a goaltender four inches shorter, and that combination of size and agility in the blue paint is lethal for the young netminder. He has good play-reading abilities and maintains a solid post-to-post presence, with the most additional work needed being cutting down tricky angles and reading cross-ice passes with more urgency. Annunen enters a system with some underwhelming goaltending prospects and has a chance to solidify himself as the Avalanche's goalie of the future.

9 Cameron Morrison, LW (40th overall, 2016. Last year: 8th) Formerly named the USHL Rookie of the Year, Cameron Morrison has had an inconsistent, but at times promising, transition to the competition level and pace of NCAA hockey. He was over a point-per-game for a below-average Youngstown team in 2015-16, but has yet to eclipse 25 points in either of his two seasons at Notre Dame. With that being said, it is clear that Morrison is getting increasingly comfortable with making plays happen with his immense skill, working hard to do what he does best: getting inside position on opposing defenders and driving to the net. His speed and mechanics are not up to speed, but with scary size (6-3", 212 lbs), he can execute a power forward game from the wing and generate chances with his adept ability to shield the puck from defenders. A decently agile winger, he is effective on the forecheck and can help defensively at times, but defense is not a strength. The former second-rounder needs to be more consistent in creating offense to become an NHL-caliber player, but as with most college players, he remains a long-term project who is still relatively early in his development.

Nick Henry

10 Nick Henry, RW (94th overall, 2017. Last year: 11th) At first glance, one scary thought about Nick Henry is that his offensive numbers in his draft year came as a byproduct of a stacked Regina Pats team that dominated the WHL. This year was more a struggle, as he tallied only 29 points in 53 games. However, in fairness, he was recovering from a shoulder surgery conducted the prior summer, and simply started out slow; as soon as he felt 100%, he rocketed up again, scoring a hat trick in the playoffs against the eventual league champs from Swift Current. Henry possesses raw skill, headlined by a heavy, quick-release wrist shot capable of routinely fooling opposing goaltenders. With average skating speed, he does not carry the puck up much (not uncommon for any linemate of the great Sam Steel), but exhibits splendid hand-eye coordination, offensive creativity, and good hands when he does. The true test for Henry's real, sustainable game will be an eventual foray into the pro ranks, but as he only cost Colorado a fourth-round pick, they have time to wait.

11 Ryan Graves, D (Trade: Feb. 26, 2017 [New York Rangers]. Last year: 6th [New York Rangers]) Unfortunately for Ryan Graves, a very serviceable defender in his own right, Avalanche executives and fans will view him as the consolation for trading the disappointing Chris Bigras, a former high second-rounder whose development in the pros floundered and necessitated a trade away. Nonetheless, Graves offers a reason to remain optimistic, because at 6-4" and 225, there are quality aspects of his game around which to build. He is not a fast skater, but adapted to a playing style in the AHL that masks his flaws and allows him to be effective everywhere else, most notably in physical battles around the boards, stretch passes up the ice, and thunderous slap shots from the point. If any NHL success is to be achieved, the Avalanche will have to pair him with a more mobile, agile defenseman, but it is possible he finds a way to contribute in a supplemental, third-pair role.

12 Spencer Martin, G (63rd overall, 2013. Last year: 16th) Spencer Martin's 2017-18 season was less than ideal, but not exactly his fault. Colorado's AHL affiliate was actually a shared enterprise, with AHL expansion trailing the NHL’s version by 12 months, forcing the Avs and Blues to coexist as San Antonio's NHL parent clubs. With this, Martin got considerably less time than a denoted "goaltender of the future" should, battling with Blues' prospect Ville Husso for time in net. He did decently for a non-playoff team, nonetheless, but not NHL-caliber goalie numbers, going 14-15-0 with a 3.10 GAA and .893 Sv%. He has raw talent boasts extreme calmness under pressure that allows him to make easy -- and difficult -- saves at all times and in all positions. Fairly aggressive in his crease, playing up his big frame by challenging shooters into harder shot angles. Martin projects to be a backup at the NHL level, but still a useful one.

13 Denis Smirnov, RW (156th overall, 2017. Last year: 17th) Drafted as a 19-year-old overager in 2017, Denis Smirnov impressed the Avalanche brass into a draft position by racking up 47 points in 39 games as a freshman at Penn State. Smirnov, a Russian who has played in North American since his age-14 season, was a sneakily skilled scorer at the USHL ranks with Fargo before transitioning to the NCAA, putting to good use an advantage that many prospects from overseas do not have: a preexisting acclimation to smaller North American ice. He produces a lot of offense from the boards and the perimeter of the zone, using his slick hands to escape defenders and pass or exhibiting great assertiveness to fire a confident shot away from some distance. However, he is not a very fast skater at top speed and seems to be a non-factor when he isn't on his game offensively.

14 Ty Lewis, LW (Free Agent Signing: Oct. 3, 2017. Last year: IE) An undrafted, unsigned invite to Avalanche training camp before the 2017-18 season, Ty Lewis showed up ready to compete, and quickly earned himself an ELC with the team. In hindsight, it looks to be a stellar stealth signing from Sakic and company, as the 20-year-old led WHL Brandon in points last season as one of only nine WHLers to reach the 100-point plateau (44 goals, 56 assists). With a dangerous mix of speed, skill, and a nose for the net, he was a pivotal weapon both on and off the puck. When he carried the rubber, he showed his innate ability to either find the open man and drive to the goal to be fed a net-front return or create his own chance. Off the puck, his positioning led to an assortment of easy tap-ins. With the AHL team, Lewis will need to prove his game can transition to the pros, while working on his flawed two-way game.

Nicolas Meloche

15 Nicolas Meloche, D (40th overall, 2015. Last year: 6th) Nicolas Meloche dropped nine spots from last year's prospect rankings to this year's, an indictment of the slow pace of his development. He was generally a liability on the Rampage blueline in what was his first pro year, one supposed to be a highly-anticipated transition to the professional leagues. Instead, he suffered the occasional mid-game benching, healthy scratch, and even an ECHL assignment. Meloche had trouble adjusting to the pace and skill of the AHL, a fact you can blame somewhat on a team thin on the blueline. He still has some raw talent and fine upside as a 6-3", right-handed defenseman who can skate, with superb mobility, a fast, hard shot, and a cool, calm demeanor. An efficient two-way defenseman in the QMJHL ranks, that remains his NHL ceiling, and his late-season performances (five points in final eight games, top-four minutes, power-play time) inspire confidence going down the road.

16 Igor Shvyrev, C (125th overall, 2017. Last year: 15th) Igor Shvyrev is an international man of mystery, but every NHL prospect system needs a resident enigma. Shvyrev embodies that role perfectly; a versatile, extraordinarily-skilled centerman whose numbers in the Russian minor leagues scream future NHL stalwart at times, with 70 points (21 goals, 49 assists) in just 40 games in 2016-17, but he has not been able to stick in the KHL, having just one goal in 42 games at the higher level. So why would the Avs sign the Russian center to an ELC? The simple fact that Shvyrev was playing center in the KHL at 18 and 19, reliably so in the bottom lines for Metallurg Magnitogorsk, is a good sign. Elsewhere, he has a dynamic skillset headlined by swift hands, great vision, a responsible defensive game, and a heavy shot; with some seasoning in the AHL, the 20-year-old could be NHL ready in short order.

17 Scott Kosmachuk, RW (UFA: Jul. 2, 2018. Last year: IE) A third-round pick six years ago and an OHL champion four years prior, Kosmachuk has returned to prospect prominence. After a great season with the Rangers' AHL affiliate in Hartford, he was offered a two-way contract with the Avalanche and will bring with him to Colorado the offensive tools that first made him attractive to NHL teams as a teen. Scouted mostly as an industrious depth winger, Kosmachuk played as a first-liner and at times, completely shouldered the load for the Wolf Pack offense, using his net-front drive, high end shot, and tenacious physicality to become a pain in the neck for opposing defenses. He is a very dangerous at top speed, with tricky agility that is capable of dangling around defenders, despite not being an overly fast skater. If he produces with the Eagles like he did with the Wolf Pack, an NHL recall could be imminent.

18 A.J. Greer, RW (39th overall, 2015. Last year: 7th) Like Meloche, A.J. Greer is someone who dropped considerably from last season's rankings, mainly because of the same issue; inconsistency and the overall inability to reach their game's competitive ceiling. Greer does not have the same offensive chops as Meloche or his other peers, but the Rampage forward netted eight goals and five assists in 35 games with SA and earned the first somewhat long-term recall of his career, playing 17 games with the Avalanche. As a 21-year-old draftee of 2015, you can consider that development timeline normal and timely, but no actual development occurred because he plays such a simple, prototypical bottom-six game. He is effective when he hustles and is very physical on the forecheck, capable of securing loose pucks and scoring some tough, clutch goals thanks to rugged net-front tenacity, but very one-dimensional. He could compete for a roster spot with the Avs this season.

19 Danila Zhuravlyov, D (146th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) Definitely a long-term project, but potentially a steal, young Russian defenseman Danila Zhuravlyov displayed a pretty promising two-way game for Russian minor-league club Irbis Kazan (nine goals, nine assists in 28 assists) and for Russia at the World Under-18s (five assists in five games). He is underdeveloped physically, but he has great straight-line speed and acceleration, using those skills to push the puck up ice with frequency. He is not afraid to let the puck fly from the point (his nine goals last season should tell you that) and has a good slap shot to boot. He is an effective defenseman in his own zone despite the lack of size, with tight gap control and attentive coverage within his zone.

20 Sheldon Dries, C (UDFA: Jul. 2, 2018. Last year: IE) After playing as an AHL-contracted rookie with the Texas Stars, Sheldon Dries inked an entry-level deal with the Avalanche in free agency, his first NHL contract. The undrafted center lit the Stars' AHL affiliate up with 19 goals and 11 assists in the regular season, followed by a team-high ten goals on their way to the Calder Cup Final. He is a high-energy guy, one that plays a middle-six role in the AHL while competing on the penalty kill, power play, and defending late leads. A Swiss army knife in Texas' lineup last season, Dries scored the bulk of his goals by driving into the offensive zone with his blazing skating speed and letting it rip with heavy, accurate wrist shots from the slot or around the faceoff circles, putting more power in his wrist shot than his 5-9" frame suggests is possible. Of course, that lack of height is what has held the center back before, but the 24 year-old can be considered a legitimate prospect on account of his maturity, experience, and versatility.

New York Rangers – System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 15 Sep 2017 20:28:28 +0000

The New York Rangers are among the small handful of teams that has not found itself in the position of selling off assets in either the near or medium past. They are an organization that is always hunting out the opposite approach, finding ways to leverage the few interesting prospects they have on hand, or their upcoming draft picks, to improve their chances today, this season.

As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the Rangers make a habit out of trading draft picks. Until they picked in the first round this year (twice!), they had not made a first round selection since drafting Brady Skjei 28th overall in 2012. In the four drafts between Skjei and the 2017 draft that saw the Rangers add both Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil on day one, not only did they not have any first rounders, but they only even had two second rounders, only one of whom was drafted before pick #59. It goes without saying that not selecting until 50 or more of the best available prospects are already off the board is not an effective way to replenish the talent in a system.

With the 2017 season not living up to the standards of previous playoff runs, even though they upset the Atlantic Division winning Montreal Canadiens as a Wild Card entry, the Rangers went heavily into the one route available to all teams regardless of daft position: undrafted free agents. Now, most undrafted free agents went undrafted for a reason and very few will have the NHL impact expect of a first, or even a second rounder, but some were available for the taking due to simply blooming later than many of their peers. The majority of players are drafted in their age 18 season, and truthfully, the majority of players who achieve tangible success in the NHL were already clearly on that path by age 18.

There are exceptions to those rules, and by minimizing their presence on draft day, the Rangers’ strategy for player procurement by necessity must be to identify and sign those exceptions. They picked up a strong one last year in Jimmy Vesey, who actually had been drafted when he was first eligible, by took advantage of his status as a college graduate to declare free agency and avoid signing with Nashville (who drafted him) or Buffalo (who subsequently traded for his rights). The other two players signed as free agents last year, Malte Stromwall and John Gilmour, have not had the same measure of success.

This year, the Rangers tripled down on that strategy, both before and after the draft. Between March 23 and July 17, they gave out Entry Level Contracts to seven undrafted free agents, including one from the CHL, two out of Europe and four collegians. They will not all pan out, and in fact, only two are counted among the top 20 prospects in the system discussed below, but all are at least further down the road towards being a factor in the Rangers’ future plans and they help to fill gaps in the system at its upper levels. We may not be projecting a long or illustrious NHL career for Vince Pedrie, for example, a defenseman signed out of Penn State after two strong seasons with the Nittany Lions, but he has good skill on the puck, and the Rangers should not fear bringing him up for a few weeks in case of injury along the blueline. The same could be said for Vinnie Lettieri, a center with good hands and offensive IQ signed out of Minnesota, or Chris Nell (Bowling Green State) or Alexandar Georgiyev (TPS), both ready to add goaltending depth to the system after Brandon Halverson as the other goalies whose rights are owned by the Rangers will still be in college or Europe in 2017-18.

GRAND FORKS, NORTH DAKOTA - APRIL 15: Sweden's Elias Pettersson #21 2016 IIHF Ice Hockey U18 World Championship. (Photo by Matt Zambonin/HHOF-IIHF Images)

1 Lias Andersson – Although we felt that Andersson was an overdraft, going seventh overall in June, that does not mean that we do not value his skills or NHL projections. A powerful skater with a very good shot, he has already shown the ability to score at the highest levels in Sweden (19 points in 42 games for HV71) and on the international stage (three goals at the last WJC). He has an NHL-sized frame, and projects as a solid second line center. Higher ceilings were available, but few who are as close to ready.

2 Igor Shesterkin – Shesterkin is on the short list for best goaltending prospects in hockey. His save percentages for his primary team over the last four years (his draft year on forward) are: .947, .943, .954, and .937, respectively. That last figure represented his first prolonged exposure to the KHL, and was good for fourth among regular KHK netminders. He is a fantastic athlete and displays above average play reading ability and a high compete level. His KHL contract has two more years to run.

Filip Chytil (Photo by Andrea Cardin/HHOF-IIHF Images)

3 Filip Chytil – The Rangers second first round pick this year, Chytil is a lean, but electric forward prospect drafted out of the Czech men’s league. His skating, shot, puck skills and hockey IQ all grade as above-average. Further, as one of the youngest players who was eligible for this year’s draft (only ten days from the cutoff), he has more room for growth and development than most. He may be playing this season in the OHL with North Bay.

4 Gabriel Fontaine – Only one year removed from being selected in the sixth round, Gabriel Fontaine is not a great offensive threat, but still manages to turn heads. One of the better faceoff takers in the QMJHL last year, he is a great two-way prospect who can chip in offense from the middle six and anchor a strong penalty killing unit. Has enough puck skill and skating ability to foresee increased offense as a pro.

Sean Day of the Mississauga Steelheads was selected by the New York Rangers at the 2016 NHL Draft in Buffalo, NY on Saturday June 25, 2016. Photo by Aaron Bell/CHL Images

5 Sean Day – One of the very few players ever granted “exceptional player” status by the CHL, Day was the first of that sub-group to not be eventually taken first overall in the NHL draft. Instead, he lasted until pick 81. Problems of focus both on and off the ice led to mixed reviews from scouts, some of whom would not put him on their draft boards at any slot. The Rangers were wise not to pay heed to the detractors. Day is a fantastic skater, with plenty of puck handling skills. He’s not done improving, either.

6 Ryan Graves – Although slow of foot, Graves has learned to play in a style that minimizes that handicap and allows his other plus skills to shine through. He will never lead the rush, but acts as a pivotal trailer, finding a soft spot in coverage to receive a pass near the blueline and tee up a thunderous slapshot. He needs to be paired with a swifter defense partner, but he is positionally sound when not faced with high end speed and uses his large frame well to detract opponents.

7 Cristoval Nieves – Nieves’ rookie pro season was marred by injuries that limited him to 40 AHL games (plus one in the NHL), so he was only able to show flashes of the all-around skills set that has kept the Rangers intrigued throughout his four year run at Michigan after he was drafted in the second round in 2012. He is a very high IQ player, who also brings above average skater and puck skills to the game. Expect more offense, and more time in the NHL, this year.

8 Ryan Gropp – The Rangers top pick from 2015, Gropp is unlike most of the forwards above him on this list in that he has always scored goals at an impressive clip, but the other parts of his game tend to leave something to be desired. He reserves his fight for the offensive zone. Although large, he is not a physical player per se, but shows some fight for pucks in the right situation. This season he will begin to answer the question of how much of his production is due to playing with an elite center in Mathew Barzal.

9 Brandon Halverson – The second of four goalies on this list, Halverson is the only one of the bunch who has a chance to play on Broadway this year, in case of injury to Lundqvist or Pavelec. Unfortunately, he followed up a solid junior career with a very rough rookie AHL season, where he played second (out of tune) fiddle to Magnus Hellberg. He has solid puck tracking ability and moves well in the crease, but needs to quiet his game, both in terms of controlling movements, and limiting rebounds.

10 Neal Pionk – Although undersized, Pionk made big waves this year as a sophomore at NCAA finalist Minnesota-Duluth, making him a highly coveted NCAA free agent. He has a strong first few steps, getting to a nice top speed quickly. He is an offensive-minded blueliner who likes to pinch, can sell a deke and has a strong slapshot. He was physical enough for the NCAA game, but there will be an adjustment period in the pros. The highest profile among the seven undrafted free agents inked by the Rangers this year.

11 Tarmo Reunanen – A mobile skater with above average stickhandling skills, Reunanen, a 2016 fourth rounder, spent his first full season playing among adults last year. His point totals do not impress, but his skill set suggests very strongly that the undersized Finnish blueliner has strong sleeper potential. Expect him to spend more time in Finland’s top level this year and watch for him being more assertive on both sides of the puck.

12 Adam Huska – After posting the best numbers among all netminders in the USHL in 2015-16, Huska had a very strong freshman season for UConn this year. His limbs all move very well and he demonstrates consistently strong reactions. He has very good body control and seals his posts very well. He is a much better goaltender than his rough showing for Slovakia at the WJC might have you believe.

13 Alexei Bereglazov – A tall wide-bodied defender signed out of Mettalurg Magnitogorsk this spring, Bereglazov is the most physically mature of the seven undrafted free agents signed by the Rangers this year. He is a defensive-minded defenseman with great reach and some puck moving ability. He makes strong reads and uses his plus size to good effect. Although used to playing on the international stage for Team Russia, this will be his first prolonged North American experience.

14 Tyler Wall – Drafted out of the Leamington system in the GOJHL, Wall was immediately a work-horse stopper for Mass-Lowell, backstopping them as a true freshman to the Hockey East title. Wall grades well in his athleticism, compete level and his ability to read the play. As promising as his first season of play against top competition was, he is still a few years away from the pros.

15 Adam Tambellini - At this stage of the Rangers system, it is fair to say that the prospects listed here are no longer front of mind. For Tambellini, his downfall has been a failure to develop/grow in his second full AHL season with Hartford. He still flashes a good shot and solid puck skills, as well as decent vision in the offensive zone, but his production has stagnated and his off-puck play has been disappointing.

16 Sergey Zborovskiy – A solid two-way defender at the WHL level with Regina, Zborivskiy has an above average point shot and plays a strong game in his own end, but his collection of tools are somewhat limited, suggesting a ceiling as a potential third pairing blueliner, despite not having any significant weaknesses. He needs to add muscle, but has an NHL-sized frame and is mobile enough for his size.

17 Tim Gettinger – A massive winger with a gift for the goals, Gettinger’s advocates see a promising two-way forward who provides honest effort with every shift and has some skill at getting the puck into scoring position. His critics see limited skating ability and questionable offensive vision. Nobody questions his size or his ability to put the puck in the net. Has another year of OHL eligibility remaining.

18 Robin Kovacs – Without question, Kovacs’ first AHL season was a letdown. For a forward known for his offensive abilities before crossing the pond from Sweden, to play a full season and produce only two goals and 12 points can only disappoint heavily. He is still someone to watch as he was extremely young for the level, only turning 20 one month into the season, and very slight. His puck skills suggest he can and should do better with added bulk and experience.

19 Patrik Virta – Drafted in the seventh round this year as a 21 year old with two roughly full season of experience in Liiga, Virta is the draft equivalent of an undrafted free agent in that he is more mature and thus closer to his eventual output than many “normal” draft picks. Virta’s production spiked upwards with TPS this year (from 4 points to 26) and he is known for owning a plus shot.

20 Ty Ronning – Undersized and feisty like his father, longtime NHLer Cliff Ronning, Ty has plus offensive instincts and a strong shot that both suggest that the Rangers will get great value from their 2016 seventh round pick. By great value, I mean he is more likely to produce in the NHL than many seventh rounders, but his size and average skating may yet prevent him from maximizing his potential.

For a team that has put so little stick in recent years in the draft, the Rangers still have a solid system in terms of depth due to the signing of previously overlooked free agents as well as spending later round picks on overaged players whose projections are clearer than 18 year olds, or who have been passed over by other teams for various other black marks. There is a bit of Moneyball to their approach, and they should see more value from their prospect pool than would be expected by simply looking at the average value of players taken where this group was, but it still must be pointed out that outside of four or five players, most of those listed above are bottom half of the lineup players. When the time comes to replace the core of the lineup, this team will still have to rely on trades and NHL free agent signings as the help will largely not come from within.

NHL Prospect Watch: Metropolitan Lights

Ryan Wagman — Mon, 20 Feb 2017 17:13:05 +0000

As I sit in Notre Dame’s beautiful Compton Family Ice Complex, watching the Fighting Irish take on the Providence Friars, I am reminded of the annual rush for NHL teams to sign the best of the NCAA world’s undrafted free agents. Last year, in this very arena, I watched Jimmy Vesey stake an early claim to the Hobey Baker Award as well as an NHL deal with the New York Rangers. There don’t look to be many highly sought-after players this year from either of these two teams, unless undersized Irish blueliner Jordan Gross leaves school early, but I am reminded of another of last year’s UFA class. One of the finalists behind Vesey for college hockey’s highest honor was St. Cloud State offensive defenseman Ethan Prow (Pittsburgh, UFA, 2016 – D, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (AHL)).

Not the most stand-out player on the Baby Pens as a rookie professional, Prow is at least proving he belongs, which not every NCAA grad can, whether drafted into affiliated hockey, or brought in as a free agent. Prow’s appeal to NHL teams was his smoothness. He brought a nice combination of skating, puck skills and sound hockey sense to the ice. His shot was somewhat lackluster and his physical game was negligible. I can safely report that Prow has learned how to bring those same attributes to the ice in the AHL. He can skate well for this level and plays the puck calmly and efficiently. He is still comfortable carrying the puck from his own zone into the offensive end. He is not the primary offensive weapon for WBS, but he is seeing some time on the penalty kill, hinting that development of his off-puck game has been a critical element of his first year in the system.

In addition to bringing the same attributes that earned him the praise of scouts with the Huskies, Prow has added a small physical edge to his game. He has not grown, per se, listed at 6-0”, 185, but he knows when smaller players are on the ice. He will not hesitate to take on those smaller players and show them who is bigger. He will use his body against other average sized players as well, but not as aggressively. When it comes to crease battles, he is still mostly ineffectual. In summary, his physical game has gone from negligible to relatively insignificant. Baby steps. Not to worry, though. He wasn’t signed to bring brawn to the Penguins blueline. He was signed as a puckmover with offensive instincts and so far, so good.

22 September 2015: New York Rangers defenseman Ryan Graves (58) warms up before an NHL preseason game

Ryan Graves (New York Rangers, 4/110, 2013 – D, Hartford (AHL))

A few weeks ago, in this space, we discussed Arizona’s towering blueline prospect Kyle Wood. The conclusion there (not that there really is a conclusion when discussing prospects. Only expected conclusions yet to be determined.) was that Wood had everything necessary to be a strong defender in the NHL other than skating prowess. So here, in the Rangers system, we have Graves, a defender cut from much the same cloth.

Now Graves did not have nearly the same offensive impact in his first year in AHL Hartford as Wood is having now with Tucson. But he was impressive. He is massive (6-4”, 220), plays a smart game and has a gigantic slapshot. I am talking mask-cracking. He had decent offensive totals as a rookie, but not enough to pave a path to Broadway. Now, almost as important as the inherent traits a player brings to his game in the ice, I look for improvement. It will almost never be linear, but it must be present. Graves is showing that. Last year, he put up 21 points in 74 games for the Wolf Pack. He has 22 in his first 49 this year.

Graves is still not a great skater, but plays a style of game that is suitable for relatively slower blueliners. He relies on a quicker partner to blaze a trail and then he comes up in support. In his own zone, he sticks to a smaller zone for coverage. He actually can get up to a good top speed if he has a long race, but the acceleration is not there for him to be relied upon as a puck carrier most of the time. As such, he will be forced to chip the puck off the glass when a clean outlet pass is not available to him as he will struggle to clear a packed defensive zone on his feet. His trailing tendency also comes to the fore on offense, where he can join the rush from behind and take advantage of drop passes to endanger the life and limbs of opponents. Still only 21 years of age, Graves has time yet to make his mark. His skating, while a hindrance, is not at the level of deal breaking. He is simply a player in search (in need) of a specific role to play. The rest of his game is present enough for him to find it eventually.

Andrew Peeke (Columbus, 2/34, 2016 – D, Notre Dame (Hockey East))

Sticking to the blueline for now, in Andrew Peeke, the Blue Jackets have drafted a potential shut down defender. Listed at 6-3”, 210, the Florida native plays a very heavy game. When he lines an opponent up for a hit, that opponent will be going down. These are not the explosive, highlight-reel open ice jobs, but more subtle pancakes.

Drafted in the second round last summer out of the USHL’s Green Bay program, Peeke has been enjoying a strong freshman year with the Irish, even contributing a slightly surprising amount of offense, with 13 points through 31 games. He is not used much for his puck skills, playing often with a more seasoned and naturally talented offensive blueliner in Jordan Gross, but he can contribute when the opportunity arises. For example, although he isn’t much for pinching, he can step nicely into a shot. Standing by the blueline, whether he lets off a wrister or a slapshot, they have impressive heft and velocity and can be trouble for defenses.

His specialty is in his own end, however. Even without hitting opponents, Peeke makes his presence felt. He keeps decent gaps – although I would like to see him use his stick more aggressively – and he is well-schooled at clogging lanes, getting in the way of countless passes and shots. He still needs at least two more years in South Bend, where ideally his offensive game will have a chance to develop, but there is a lot to like with Peeke.

Joshua Ho-Sang (New York Islanders, 1/28, 2014 – RW, Bridgeport (AHL))

In his first year in the professional ranks, former first rounder Joshua Ho-Sang is no stranger to controversy, much of it at least partially of his own making. The young Sound Tiger has long held a reputation from playing by his own rules, which referred to both his mind-boggling creativity on the ice, as well as his all too frequent disciplinary concerns off of it. The Islanders famously got a taste of the latter when he slept in on one of his first days at rookie camp in the summer of 2015 and was immediately cut from camp.

After a slow start to his rookie pro season, Ho-Sang is letting the Isles organization in on his on-ice wizardry as well. As I write these words, Ho-Sang has just put up seven points in his two games this weekend, bringing his season totals to a respectable 32 in 44 games. As with his time in junior hockey, Ho-Sang is earing most of his points through playmaking instead of finishing. He is a very aggressive player. Between his creativity with the puck and his high end speed, he can be absolutely electrifying to watch. On the downside to this on-ice powers is a tendency to take too many risks. There is a fine line to be drawn between confidence and over-confidence and Ho-Sang flits back and forth across that line.

While he should definitely spend the rest of this season in the AHL with Bridgeport, Ho-Sang is the type of player who could certainly benefit from the change in coaches in Brooklyn. Current interim head coach Doug Weight represents the best case scenario for what Ho-Sang’s NHL career could look like. It requires some taming and a lot of patience, but if his recent play is any indication, he is now on the right path.

PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 06: Philadelphia Flyers Winger Taylor Leier (58) looks for a pass December 06, 2016, (Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire)

Taylor Leier (Philadelphia Flyers, 4/117, 2012 – LW, Lehigh Valley (AHL))

While the ethos of the Broad Street Bullies is obsolete, it may be fair to say that work ethic is a close relative. That is why, even though all of the brightest lights of the Flyers system (especially with Konency in the NHL) are blueliners, I will use this space this week to write about Taylor Leier, a tireless winger who is most known for his work in his own zone. The one-time (surprise) member of a Team Canada entry at the WJC, Leier is a power forward in a small forward’s body.

He is aggressive in all three zones, and effective in each. Now in his third year in the AHL, with NHL stints in the last two of those, Leier is starting to gain in confidence and impact in the offensive end. From 31 points in 73 games as a rookie, he improved to 49 points in 71 games last year. This year, he has 28 points in 34 AHL games, a pace that would have led to 57-58 points in 70 games, had he not had a 10 game trial with the Flyers in December.

In spite of the slow and steady increase in his offensive production, Leier is what he is. A reasonable bottom six energy line winger who can produce a modicum of offense. Beyond his utility in defensive situations, including heavy usage on the PK, he shows good offensive zone vision and some playmaking touch. With left wingers Chris VandeVelde and Pierre Edouard Bellamare both slated for unrestricted free agency after this season, Leier has earned an opportunity to stake his claim to a full time NHL role.

Blake Coleman (New Jersey Devils, 3/75, 2011 – C, Albany (AHL))

For an uninspiring system, it is only fair that we talk about an uninspiring prospect. Coleman’s name has been bandied about for a long time by Devils’ fans, but this is really his first full year of professional action, at age 25. The former third round pick out of Plano, Texas took his full four years at Miami before turning pro, only to miss all but 14 games as rookie due to injury. 33 points in 46 games this year has been impressive enough that he earned his first NHL call-up, a five game stretch in mid-January.

The Texan (hockey writers only get so many chances to call players “The Texan”) is a tad undersized, but plays a feisty game. What he lacks in strength (which also manifests itself in a subpar shot), he makes up for in energy and aggression. He is often used the primary forechecker, applying pressure on opponents across 200 feet of ice. That said, unlike Leier above, Coleman does not play as a miniature power forward. He is more aptly referred to as a pest. He does have some offensively redeeming qualities as well. His AHL scoring exploits are largely the product of a good pair of mitts. He can maintain possession of the puck under pressure and can help his teammates make plays.

Coleman is a late bloomer. In another system, he would probably be completely under the radar. In a thin Devils’ system, he sticks out. The Albany Devils are one of the better teams in the North Division of the AHL, but the majority of their contributors (outside of the netminders) are either not prospects at all, or lesser prospects than Coleman. If the Devils decide to sell off pieces before the deadline, Coleman should get more NHL experience before the season is out.

Chandler Stephenson (Washington Capitals, 3/77, 2012 – C, Hershey (AHL))

In preparing for this article, I did not set out intending to find smallish forwards with low upside, but safe, dependable and energetic games. It just sort of worked out that way. The AHL rarely has young players with cathedral ceilings for too long. They either get called up right away (if they aren’t placed in the NHL right out of amateur hockey), or they have very notable flaws, like Joshua Ho-Sang, profiled above.

Stephenson is either a strange case, or a sign of my own growth as a player evaluator. Perhaps both. His numbers between this year and last are practically identical, yet I see different, far more attractive player. Last season, I saw a defensive forward who did nothing especially well and profiled as an up-and-down guy. He had 28 points in 46 regular season games with Hershey and nothing in a nine game trial with the Capitals. In the AHL postseason, he added six points in 17 games. This year is more of the same in the points department. He has 30 points in 49 games for the Bears in addition to three games, no points, in the NHL.

So what has changed? I see now that he is not only a defensively responsible forward, but one that constantly makes smart, understated decisions on the ice. He is the type of player that has announcers gushing about “the little things”. Whether it is knowing when to get rid of the puck, or to hold on to it for another half second to prevent a quick break by the opponent or allow a teammate to shake free on the far side. Also, like the cheesy 80s movie where the nerdy girl takes off her glasses and the protagonist suddenly realizes that she is pretty, the shackles have been taken off, or I was blinded by the defensiveness, but Stephenson can skate. I mean, he can fly out there. A smart player with hot wheels will always get chances in the NHL. If the Capitals decide not to bring back Daniel Winnik next year, Stephenson should be ready to compete for that spot.

David Cotton (Carolina Hurricanes, 6/169, 2015 – C, Boston College (Hockey East))

Another Texan! Drafted out of a Boston area prep school Cotton was essentially a project pick. Huge with some puck skill, but prep players are notoriously difficult to project due to the uneven (being kind) level of competition in the high school ranks. Cotton spent the following year with Waterloo of the USHL and I was not impressed over a few viewings. Despite being one of the bigger players on the ice, he had a relatively low impact for the Black Hawks, with only 30 points in 48 games and only two assist over nine playoffs contests.

So I was a little bit surprised by how well he came out of the games as a freshman for Boston College, scoring at a higher rate against better competition. Perhaps he just missed Massachusetts? Reviewing my notes from last year, I don’t think I missed anything from Cotton. He was a rough skater and rarely drove play. What is different this year is that he is now in a position where what he can do is able to be utilized. The big Texan has really good hands, softer that you might expect just looking at him, and can make skill plays with the puck, whether that is stickhandling through traffic or receiving difficult passes and turning those into scoring opportunities in a blink. Away from the puck, he is also making use of what he has, using his large frame to clog lanes or tie up (and take down) opponents.

I am not ready to say that this project has paid off. For one thing, I want to see that his skating has truly improved. He is still only a freshman and will need at least two more full seasons with BC to have a good idea of the type of player he will become, but I am ready to say that I was too low on him next year. No longer an afterthought, Cotton is now one to watch in the Hurricanes’ system.

Youngblood: 2014 Memorial Cup – Prospects to Watch

Brendan Ross — Wed, 14 May 2014 14:58:07 +0000

We are mere hours away from the puck dropping on the 2014 Mastercard Memorial Cup and the City of London is gearing up to welcome one of the most competitive fields in recent years.

Returning for their third straight Memorial Cup appearance are the tournament hosts, London Knights, after the injury-riddled squad was bounced in the second round of the OHL playoffs by the eventual OHL Champions, Guelph Storm. Joining the Guelph Storm and London Knights are the Champs of the WHL in the Edmonton Oil Kings, and QMJHL victors, Val d’Or Foreurs, both freshly off game seven wins that punched their ticket to the illustrious major junior competition.

The past three Memorial Cups have been hoisted by the QMJHL representatives after Saint John Sea Dogs (2011), Shawinigan Cataractes (2012) and Halifax Mooseheads (2013) each tasted victory.

The Edmonton Oil Kings are looking for their first Memorial Cup Championship since 1966 when they captured it as members of the Central Alberta Hockey League.

Quebec’s Val d’Or Foreurs have participated in the Memorial Cup twice (1998 and 2001) but have yet to walk away victors, coming close in 2001 when the Foreurs lost to the Red Deer Rebels in the finals.

The Knights will be participating in their fourth Memorial Cup event and the team is hoping for similar results as when they last hosted in 2005, the year the Knights skated away as Memorial Cup Champions.

With four previous attempts at winning the Memorial Cup, the Guelph Storm are rolling into their fifth tournament red hot looking to take home the 95-year-old hardware.

Regardless of which team skates off Budweiser Gardens’ ice as Champions, the 2014 Mastercard Memorial Cup is loaded with talented major junior players looking to take the next step in their development. As the electric atmosphere takes over London, Ontario, here are several players to watch throughout the tournament.

Edmonton Oil Kings

Curtis Lazar (Senators – 2013, 17^th overall) Arguably the best leader in major junior, Lazar will eat up a ton of minutes, taking important faceoffs and seeing top line offensive minutes along the way.

Tristan Jarry (Penguins – 2013, 44^th overall) Jarry’s 2.19 GAA and .925 save percentage are impressive stat lines but his ability to make the clutch save behind a strong defense core allows the Oil Kings the opportunity to play a stifling defensive game.

Griffin Reinhart (NY Islanders – 2012, 4^th overall) He’s got great draft pedigree and has slowly progressed with each passing game to become a suffocating shutdown defenseman, utilizing his large wingspan and strength against top WHLers.

Henrik Samuelsson(Coyotes – 2012, 27^th overall) Playing a gritty-in-your-face style of puck that would make his father Ulf proud, Henrik has balanced his aggressive attack and skilled offensive bursts well. Led the Oil Kings in playoff scoring with 23 points over 21 games.

Mitch Moroz (Oilers – 2012, 32^nd overall) Not the prettiest skater or the most refined skilled player, Mitch Moroz’ offers a nice blend of size and soft touch around the net to create room and offensive chances. His size could prove to be an asset against some larger Guelph Storm players when the two teams face off Saturday afternoon.

Brett Pollock(2014 NHL Draft) Industrious and versatile, Brett Pollock forced his way up a veteran laden Oil Kings’ depth chart to find a home in the top six, posting near point-per-game numbers during Edmonton’s WHL Championship run.

Dysin Mayo (2014 NHL Draft) An emerging offensive defenseman, Dysin Mayo has earned the trust of Head Coach Derek Laxdal and his game-changing rushes are only improving his draft stock.

Aaron Irving (2014 NHL Draft) Edmonton’s 9^th overall 2011 selection, Aaron Irving is one of the defensive pillars on the Oil Kings’ blue line who has made life hell for intruding forwards with his physicality and nastiness.

Cody Corbett (Signed by Avalanche, 2014) The third year defenseman played his way to a contract with Colorado after posting 61 points in 65 games from the blueline.

Mads Eller and Ashton Sautner (Re-entries for 2014 NHL Draft) – Two mobile skaters, forward Mads Eller (younger brother of Canadiens’ Lars Eller) and defenseman Ashton Sautner use their speed and edge work to force opponents into uncomfortable positions.

Val d’Or Foreurs

Anthony Mantha (Red Wings – 2013, 20^th overall) Big time sniper brings his 81 combined regular season and playoff goals, the most by any CHLer, to Bud Gardens for all to witness. He will be the focus of defences as the tournament’s most natural goal scorer. It is hard to believe that Detroit traded down to acquire this stud prospect.

Ryan Graves (NY Rangers – 2013, 110^thoverall) Brought over from Charlottetown in trade to boost their blue line, Graves has provided a stabilizing presence using his size and strength to contain opposing team’s top forwards.

Antoine Bibeau (Maple Leafs – 2013, 172^nd overall) Selected in his second attempt at the NHL Draft, it appears the selection of Antoine Bibeau has been a shrewd move after the big goaltender earned QMJHL Playoff MVP honours.

Nicolas Aubé-Kubel (2014 NHL Draft) Taken 7^th overall by Val d’Or in 2012, Aubé-Kubel’s offensive emergence has provided the team with secondary scoring and this skilled responsible forward looks to use the Memorial Cup as one final showing before heading to Philadelphia for the draft.

Louick Marcotte(Re-entry for 2014 NHL Draft) Fourth year forward, Marcotte, nearly doubled his production playing on the Foreurs’ top line and his 42 goals and 100 points may be enough to draw interest at the draft.

Guillaume Gélinas (Undrafted) Undersized overager who dominated every offensive category by a defenseman in both regular season (67GP-23G-92P) and playoffs (24GP-11G-34P) is also playing for a professional contract.

Anthony Richard (2015 NHL Draft) Diminutive speedy centerman with a case of danglitis experienced a breakout sophomore campaign after being selected 16^th overall at the 2012 QMJHL Draft.

Julien Gauthier (2016 NHL Draft) Selected 6^th overall, rookie Julien Gauthier is a budding power forward to watch heading towards the 2016 NHL Draft as he learns how to use his size and strong shot to take over the offensive zone.

Guelph Storm

Kerby Rychel (Blue Jackets – 2013, 19^th overall) Windsor GM Warren Rychel traded his own son, along with LA Kings’ prospect Nick Ebert, at the deadline to Guelph. The Storm may be forever in debt with Windsor after Kerby buried the tying goal and game winner to clinch the OHL Championship.

Zack Mitchell (Signed by Wild, 2014) The Guelph Storm journeyman has bled maroon and grey in his five years of service and after being rewarded with an NHL contract back in March, Mitchell is keen on capping off his OHL career with a Memorial Cup Championship.

Scott Kosmachuk(Jets – 2012, 70^th overall) Among the OHL playoff scoring leaders, Kosmachuk was one of only three players to clear the century mark in points during the regular season and is called upon when the team needs a goal or a big hit.

Brock McGinn (Hurricanes – 2012, 47^th overall) After returning from an eight game suspension, Brock McGinn scored points in all but two playoff games while playing his usual irritating brand of hockey.

Jason Dickinson (Stars – 2013, 29^th overall) Drafted in the opening round in 2013 as a unfinished lanky prospect, the third year Dickinson has really came into his own learning how to use his size as a skilled power forward. Dickinson is one of five Storm players who recorded over a point-per-game in the post-season.

Matt Finn (Maple Leafs – 2012, 35^th overall) Awarded the Mickey Renaud Trophy as the league’s most dedicated and passionate captain on and off the ice, Matt Finn is a true leader and a stabilizing presence on the blue line.

Tyler Bertuzzi (Red Wings – 2013, 58^th overall) Ironically, the Red Wings traded down at the 2013 draft to select Anthony Mantha and received the 58^th pick as a result. That pick was used to select agitating forward Tyler Bertuzzi. Now, Foreurs’ Mantha and Storm’s Bertuzzi will be competing, at all costs, to take home the Memorial Cup. Mark it, Bertuzzi will be a thorn in the side of opposing defenses.

Nick Ebert (Kings – 2012, 211^th overall) Nick Ebert wasn’t the centrepiece of the trade that brought Kerby Rychel to Guelph but he’s been, arguably, the most crucial piece. Leading the team in playoff scoring from the backend, Ebert elevated his game as a member of the Storm.

Zac Leslie (Kings – 2013, 178^th overall) Drafted into the Ontario league in the middle rounds from the Ottawa Jr. 67’s, Leslie has improved on his production with each passing season giving the Storm depth on the blueline and a dangerous powerplay option.

Ben Harpur (Senators – 2013, 108^th overall) The towering 6-foot-6 blue liner will wreak havoc on attacking forwards as he wields his active stick and staples trespassers to the boards.

Robby Fabbri (2014 NHL Draft) No player has experienced a larger potential draft rise than Robby Fabbri, who is coming off OHL Playoff MVP Honours. The undersized yet competitive and skilled forward refuses to lose and his draft rise is reminiscent of former Kitchener Rangers’ forward Jeff Skinner after his 2010 standout playoff performance.

Phil Baltisberger (2014 NHL Draft) Another player exceeding expectations in his draft year, Swiss import Phil Baltisberger displays a strong two-way game with an ability to push the pace with his smooth skating stride. Eats up big minutes on the blue line.

Justin Nichols (Undrafted)and Matt Mancini (2014 NHL Draft) Acquired from Sault Ste Marie prior to the season, Justin Nichols’ game hasn’t been perfect every night but this undersized goaltender has had some of the most electrifying performances in the league. He’s getting noticed just as his understudy, Matt Mancini, is. Mancini is a highly touted young goaltender who continues to learn the intricacies of the game

London Knights

Max Domi (Coyotes – 2013, 12^th overall) Coming off a disappointing post-draft season, albeit by Domi’s standards, the Knights’ leading scorer was medically cleared to play after injuring his shoulder in the post-season. Look for the refreshed Domi to put on an offensive clinic as London attempts to prove their team is deserving of the Memorial Cup host spot.

Bo Horvat (Canucks – 2013, 9^th overall) The astute two-way forward with underrated offensive skills may be playing in his final OHL season and would love to add the elusive Memorial Cup title to his resume. With a history of scoring big goals, Horvat will be leaned upon in every possible situation.

Chris Tierney(Sharks – 2012, 55^th overall) Living up to his 2^nd round NHL Draft status after many questioned San Jose’s thought process, Chris Tierney went on an absolute tear during the playoffs ringing off 17 points in just nine games attempting to single-handedly advance the Knights.

Josh Anderson (Blue Jackets – 2012, 95^th overall) Anderson is a big bodied winger who won’t always fill up the game sheet but his heavy, physical approach and strong cycle game could tire out opposing defenses in a long intense tournament.

Ryan Rupert (Maple Leafs – 2012, 157^th overall) A skilled agitator in every sense of the word, Ryan Rupert, along with twin brother Matt (Undrafted), provide the Knights with outstanding depth as they make an impact by crawling under opponents’ skin or by crashing the net for a goal. The home fans will enjoy them but the road teams certainly will not.

Gemel Smith (Stars – 2012, 104^th overall) A true sniper who relies on his shot and blazing speed, Gemel Smith has had an okay transition to the Knights after coming aboard mid-season but he’s eager to pick up where he left off after a better OHL playoffs (12 points in nine games).

Michael McCarron (Canadiens – 2013, 25^th overall) The big power forward experienced a rather slow transition to OHL life but Michael McCarron has stepped up his game over the final few months showing the skill set that gave Montreal reason to draft him in the first round.

Mitch Marner (2015 NHL Draft) In a similar mold as Guelph’s Robby Fabbri, Marner is a sneaky player who makes an impact on every shift. No player does more with limited playing minutes as Marner and his ability to dance around defenders and find open teammates is only one reason he’s considered a top 2015 NHL Draft prospect. He’s been London’s best player, as a rookie, on most nights.

Christian Dvorak(2014 NHL Draft) One of several Knights returning from the infirmary, Dvorak is hoping to suit up for the first time since December 14^th when he injured his knee. His draft season viewings were limited but positive before being sidelined.

Nikita Zadorov (Sabres – 2013, 16^th overall) The only NHL drafted player on the Knights with NHL experience (seven games), Nikita Zadorov is undoubtedly the most crucial defender on their blueline. His offensive game has progressed to new heights and he’s still capable of intimidating with his bone-crushing open-ice hits.

Brady Austin (Sabres – 2012, 193^rd overall) Cleared to play after battling mononucleosis, overage defenseman Brady Austin is a huge returnee to what was a spotty blue line. After dealing with his illness and the passing of his father, Austin and his teammates will be playing inspired hockey.

Zach Bell (Undrafted) Bell is a bruising defenseman that has his own feel-good story after quickly recovering from a broken leg and his presence will be felt defensively.

Brett Welychka (Undrafted) It wouldn’t be a stretch to consider Welychka one of the most versatile players in the league, after the forward logged big minutes on the blue line when injury struck the Knights’ backend. Look for Welychka to return to the front lines adding to London’s incredible offensive depth.

Anthony Stolarz (Flyers – 2012, 45^th overall) Flying under the radar somewhat is the fact that Anthony Stolarz’ eight-game suspension for his slashing incident was reduced to six, after the Knights were knocked out of the playoffs early. Whether right or wrong, London’s biggest returnee for the Memorial Cup is between the pipes in Stolarz because he is capable of stealing games.

The 2014 Mastercard Memorial Cup action begins Friday evening with the London Knights taking on Val d’Or Foreurs.

Follow @RossyYoungblood for all the #MemorialCup action.