Sam Lafferty – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Fantilli takes on more responsibility – Rasmussen stepping up – Zary providing scoring punch – plus much more ..

Scott Cullen — Fri, 15 Dec 2023 21:07:45 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - OCTOBER 26: Columbus Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli (11) waits for a face-off during the Columbus Blue Jackets versus the Montreal Canadiens game on October 26, 2023, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Adam Fantilli takes on more responsibility in Columbus, Michael Rasmussen is stepping up in Detroit, Connor Zary is providing scoring punch for Calgary, and Edmonton has a goaltender offering fantasy value once again.

#1 It can be difficult to make the jump straight from college hockey to the NHL and it’s even more challenging when the player is asked to handle major responsibility at the NHL level. Columbus’ Adam Fantilli has recorded six points (4 G, 2 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past seven games and with Boone Jenner injured, Fantilli has now been thrust into the role of top line centre, skating with Johnny Gaudreau. Patrik Laine has also been recently injured and that has opened up a spot for Justin Danforth to play right wing on that line. Fantilli played a career high 19:29 in Thursday’s win at Toronto and he is looking at significant ice time for at least the next few months, as long as he can handle it.

#2 At the start of the season, Michael Rasmussen was languishing on the bottom half of the Red Wings depth chart, managing just five points (2 G, 3 A) in 19 games. December has brought more production from the 6-foot-6 centre, as Rasmussen has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in seven games this month. With Dylan Larkin and J.T. Compher injured and David Perron appealing his six-game suspension, there is more ice time available in Detroit and Rasmussen is doing his part to earn it.

#3 Calgary Flames rookie winger Connor Zary has produced 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 20 games since getting called up from the American Hockey League early in the season. His 0.75 points per game ranks second among rookies, behind some character named Bedard, and is skating on a line with Nazem Kadri and fellow rookie Martin Pospisil. There is a warning sign, however. Zary has failed to record a shot on goal in three of his past four games and has a total of 24 shots on goal in 20 games. That is not the ideal path to sustainable offensive production.

#4 Surrendering five goals on 22 shots in Thursday’s loss to Tampa Bay put a damper on the recently improved play of Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner. The Calder Trophy runner-up last season, Skinner started poorly this year and, with Jack Campbell demoted to the AHL, the Oilers were still pushing Skinner out there, hoping for better results. Before Thursday’s loss, they were getting those better results, as Skinner had seven straight wins with a .935 save percentage in his previous seven starts.

#5 Arizona Coyotes winger Matias Maccelli continues to produce. He had 49 points in 64 games last season and is up to 21 points (5 G, 16 A) in 28 games this season after scoring five points (2 G, 3 A) in his past six games. What is more compelling about Maccelli’s production is that he is shooting the puck a lot more. HE has 22 shots on goal in his past six contests, which is a substantial upgrade over his 36 shots on goal in 22 games before that.

#6 With Winnipeg Jets sniper Kyle Connor out 6-8 weeks after taking a knee-on-knee hit from Ryan Strome, the Jets will need Nikolaj Ehlers to handle more of the offensive load. He has tended to be underused in the past couple of seasons but does have 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 38 shots on goal in his past 15 games. Now, the challenge will be maintaining that kind of production with Gabe Vilardi moving up to the top line to fill in for Connor.

#7 It is fair to say that Mason Marchment’s first season in Dallas did not go according to plan, as he finished with 31 points (12 G, 19 A) in 68 games. He scored on just 8.1 percent of his shots on goal, which contributed to his lower than anticipated output. This season, Marchment has scored on 16.1 percent of his shots on goal and has put up 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 30 shots on goal in his past 12 games. It’s amazing what a difference it makes to score at nearly double the rate of shots on goal! Nevertheless, Marchment has found a good fit alongside veterans Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin in Big D.

#8 New York Islanders captain Anders Lee got off to an abysmal start this season, managing just two points (1 G, 1 A) through his first 15 games. For a player who lives at the top of the crease, that’s not making the most of his opportunities. Lee’s production is starting to improve, though, as he has eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 34 shots on goal in his past 13 games. Lee is back on the Islanders’ top line, with Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal, so that should provide more consistent scoring opportunities.

#9 Coming off a career high 27 points last season, Vancouver Canucks winger Sam Lafferty is getting a great opportunity to skate on Vancouver’s top line with Elias Pettersson and Ilya Mikheyev. Lafferty has contributed five points (3 G, 2 A) in his past six games, and his situation makes him appealing in the short term but his track record and the possibility that he could easily get bumped down the depth chart does put a limit on his appeal in this scoring role.

#10 With Philipp Grubauer injured, Joey Daccord is looking at his best opportunity to establish himself in net for the Seattle Kraken. Daccord, 27, does have a .912 save percentage in his past eight appearances, so he could be an upgrade on the underachieving Grubauer. If Daccord falters, Chris Driedger might get some time, too. The 29-year-old missed all of last season after suffering a torn ACL at the 2022 World Championships. Driedger was squeezed out of Seattle at the start of the season but had a .916 save percentage in 15 games for Coachella Valley in the AHL at the time of his recall.

#11 The Carolina Hurricanes are not scoring enough and one of the reasons is that Andrei Svechnikov had managed just one goal on 41 shots in 16 games. He is out indefinitely with an upper-body injury, so Stefan Noesen has moved up the Carolina depth chart. Noesen has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in his past eight games and played a season-high 16:38 in Thursday’s win at Detroit.

#12 A top checking centre for the Tampa Bay Lightning, Anthony Cirelli is at his best when he is contributing at both ends of the rink. He is having a good run recently with seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 16 shots on goal in his past 6 games. Cirelli is playing with Tanner Jeannot and Brandon Hagel, a trio that is giving the Lightning legitimate secondary scoring behind their powerful top line.

#13 Detroit’s injuries have provided not only an opportunity for the aforementioned Michael Rasmussen, but also for Joe Veleno, a 23-year-old centre who has mostly been a fourth liner to this point in his career. In his past four games, Veleno has contributed three points (1 G, 2 A) while playing more than 21 minutes in every contest. He is centering Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane, while also getting first unit power play time. That may not last, especially once the Wings get healthy, but in the short term, Veleno suddenly finds himself offering potential value for fantasy managers.

#14 Boston Bruins centre Pavel Zacha is injured and that has opened the door for Morgan Geekie to take on a bigger role, skating on Boston’s top line with wingers Jake DeBrusk and David Pastrnak. Geekie had a career high 28 points (9 G, 19 A) in Seattle last season, so his offensive track record is limited, but he has played more than 17 minutes in back-to-back games contributed goal and an assist in those two contests.

#15 A big hit from Colorado Avalanche centre Nathan MacKinnon has landed Buffalo Sabres left winger Jeff Skinner on the injured list with an upper-body injury. That does create an opportunity for rookie Zach Benson who has shown flashes of skill on his way to a modest eight points (3 G, 5 A) in 20 games, but Benson is on a line with Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens, along with second unit power play time so, at the very least, it is worth monitoring his progress.

#16 Ottawa Senators defenceman Thomas Chabot is out for at least four weeks with a leg injury, which comes on the heels of a broken hand that cost him time earlier in the season. He has appeared in just nine games as a result, and his current injury opens the door for Jake Sanderson to step up as Ottawa’s No. 1 defenceman. Sanderson opened the season with 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in 14 games but has managed just two points (1 G, 1 A) in 10 games since. However, with the chance to quarterback the Sens’ top power play, Sanderson becomes more valuable for fantasy managers.

#17 Among players that have played at least 50 minutes in December, the leaders in individual expected goals per 60 minutes: Kyle Connor (2.81), John Tavares (2.67), Zach Hyman (2.30), Anders Lee (2.09), Quinton Byfield (2.03), Dylan Larkin (2.02), Austin Matthews (2.01), Colton Sissons (2.01), and Carter Verhaeghe (2.00). While there are familiar and expected names in that list, it should be an encouraging sign for the likes of Lee and Byfield, that their production could be sustained, while Sissons could be worth watching in deeper leagues as he has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 13 shots on goal in seven games this month.

#18 It has been a running theme here this season how unpredictable goaltenders can be. Among the 27 goaltenders that have appeared in at least four games this month, here are the leaders in save percentage: Juuse Saros (.953), Filip Gustavsson (.944), Connor Hellebuyck (.939), Petr Mrazek (.938), and Joey Daccord (.934). You will be forgiven for doing a double take at the last two names on that list. Then take a look at the other end. Here are the bottom five goaltenders for save percentage in December, minimum four games: Arvid Soderblom (.844), Igor Shesterkin (.865), Jake Oettinger (.868), Sergei Bobrovsky (.878), and Joonas Korpisalo (.884). Shesterkin and Oettinger are unexpected entries but consider that this is a very small sample size and not representative of a goalie’s overall value.

#19 Among defenceman to play at least 50 minutes this month, the leaders in individual expected goals per 60 minutes: Jacob MacDonald (0.93), Charlie McAvoy (0.61), Darnell Nurse (0.57), K’Andre Miller (0.55), and Drew Doughty (0.54). Leaders in shots on goal per 60 minutes: Mike Reilly (11.73), Justin Faulk (11.27), Jacob MacDonald (10.24), Rasmus Dahlin (9.47), and Morgan Rielly (8.90). MacDonald does have three goals in five games in December, but it is still tough to trust that he will have regular ice time in San Jose. Reilly is making the most of his opportunity with the Islanders. He has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past five games and played a season high 20:37 in Wednesdays win over Anaheim.

#20 Forwards who have yet to score in December with the highest total of shots on goal: Cole Caufield (29), Dylan Cozens (22), Yanni Gourde (22), Carl Grundstrom (18), Timo Meier (18), and Cam Atkinson (18). This should be encouraging, that these players are still generating shots on goal and that eventually leads to actual goals. In the case of someone like Caufield, who has established his credentials as a finisher, it would seem to be just a matter of time before he breaks through.

DADOUN: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Sharks show some bite in tough season – Coyotes, Hurricanes, Avalanche, Devils, Islanders, Maple Leafs, Canucks and Golden Knights – Players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 09 Dec 2023 16:09:54 +0000

BOSTON, MA - NOVEMBER 30: San Jose Sharks left wing Fabian Zetterlund (20) takes a shot in warm up before a game between the Boston Bruins and the San Jose Sharks on November 30, 2023, at TD garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

This column was previously getting released at the start of the week, but starting today, it will come out Saturdays instead. It’ll still preview the upcoming week, but now you’ll have more time to plan your strategy. Please bear in mind that the information provided is reflective of the time of writing (in this case, the morning of Dec. 8).

That aside, I wanted to cast a light on San Jose, which has won five of its last seven games. The Sharks have been fun to watch recently with them overcoming a 4-1 deficit against the Islanders on Tuesday and a 4-0 deficit to the Red Wings on Thursday. After a 0-10-1 start to the campaign that included back-to-back games in which they surrendered 10 goals, the Sharks are now 8-17-2. Still not good, but given where they came from, that’s impressive.

Looking at their last seven games specifically, the big change for San Jose has been its offense. The Sharks have scored 4.00 goals per game over that span, compared to 1.09 over their first 11 outings. Tomas Hertl has been an important factor in their recent surge, providing five goals and nine points over his last six appearances, but the real standout performer has been Mikael Granlund, who went from recording four assists over his first 13 contests to contributing three goals and 12 points over his last seven outings.

The Sharks have gotten some support team-wide too. Seven different players have supplied at least two goals over the past seven games, including three markers from defenseman Jacob MacDonald, who had just three goals over 101 career NHL games going into this campaign.

Is this sustainable, though? Probably not. The Sharks don’t have a particularly good team. Goaltenders Mackenzie Blackwood and Kaapo Kahkonen are still struggling, so if the offense cools from its unreal pace, then the whole house of cards will likely crumble again. Plus overcoming three- or four-goal deficits is fun to watch, but not something that can be counted on to happen routinely.

It is encouraging to see youngsters William Eklund, who has two goals and five points over his last four contests, and Fabian Zetterlund, who has four goals and five points over his last seven games, do well though. They’re the future of the franchise, so strong performances from them matter much more to San Jose than whether the squad is winning or losing today.

Arizona Coyotes - MON @ BUF, TUE @ PIT (BTB), FRI VS. SJS, SAT VS. BUF (BTB)

The Coyotes enjoyed a five-game winning streak from Nov. 25-Dec. 4, bringing them up to 13-9-2 by the end of that run. After spending a few years rebuilding, Arizona has a real shot of making the playoffs this year.

Of course, the Coyotes still have a lot of work ahead of them, which they’ll continue next week with games in Buffalo on Monday and Pittsburgh on Tuesday, followed by home contests versus the Sharks on Friday and Sabres on Saturday. Those adversaries range from bad to middling this campaign, so the Coyotes should do well.

With two back-to-back sets, Karel Vejmelka should get some work for the first time since Nov. 22. He’s struggled this campaign with a 2-6-2 record, 3.45 GAA and .892 save percentage in 11 contests, so he’s not an ideal option for a situational pickup. That said, if he draws the Sharks, then it might be worth considering him (provided San Jose has cooled by that point).

If Alex Kerfoot is still available in your league, he’d be a good pickup. He’s one of the hottest players in the league with a goal and nine points over his last five contests. Part of that surge is thanks to him getting an increased role. Over his first 15 contests this campaign, he had a goal and four points while averaging 15:01 of ice time, including just 0:18 with the man advantage, but that’s jumped to 18:57 over his last 10 contests, including 2:21 on the power play. So, while he obviously can’t maintain the offensive pace of his last five games, as long as Arizona keeps deploying him like it has recently, Kerfoot should continue to be a valuable forward in most fantasy leagues.

Someone else to consider in the short-term but is less likely to have long-term success is Michael Carcone. He has five goals over his last five contests, but his shooting percentage has climbed to an unsustainable 32.4 and he serves in a bottom-six role, so expect him to crash completely once the hot streak is over.

Carolina Hurricanes – TUE @ OTT, THU @DET, FRI VS NSH (BTB), SUN VS WAS

The Hurricanes will start the week by completing their six-game road trip with games in Ottawa on Tuesday and Detroit on Thursday. They’ll then get an opportunity to defend PNC Arena when they host the Predators on Friday and the Capitals on Sunday. Detroit’s been pretty good this campaign, but Nashville is the only other opponent currently in a playoff position, and even then, just barely.

Andrei Svechnikov couldn’t play Thursday due to an upper-body injury. If it turns out he won’t be available for some or all of next week’s games, then that will have a significant impact on Carolina’s lineup. In particular, Michael Bunting could play a major role during Svechnikov’s absence. When Svechnikov missed the first eight contests of the campaign because of a knee injury, Bunting had two goals and six points in eight contests while averaging 18:12 of ice time. Since then, Bunting has dropped to 13:45 while providing four goals and 10 points over 17 games.

We also might see Brendan Lemieux playing consistently during Svechnikov’s absence. Lemieux isn’t much of a factor offensively, but if you’re in a position where you’re looking for penalty minutes, he can help you there. Through 10 appearances this season, he’s accumulated 33 PIM and the 27-year-old has 517 PIM in 285 career games.

On the power play, there might be an opportunity for Brady Skjei to assume a second-line role. He has four goals and 15 points in 29 contests this season, which is great for a defenseman who is averaging just 0:13 with the man advantage. Even a second unit power-play role would be a potentially meaningful boost for him.

Colorado Avalanche – MON VS CGY, WED VS BUG, SAT @ WPG, SUN VS SJS (BTB)

The Avalanche will play four games next week, including home contests against the Flames on Monday, the Sabes on Wednesday and the Sharks on Sunday. Sprinkled in there will also be a road outing in Winnipeg on Saturday. Of those opponents, just Winnipeg is in a playoff position. The Sharks have won five of their last seven games, though, so it’ll be interesting to see if they’re still hot by the time that contest happens.

Speaking of hot players, Nathan MacKinnon is on a 10-game scoring streak, providing four goals and 16 points over that stretch, including two goals and five points over his last two contests alone. Through Thursday’s action, MacKinnon has moved into a three-way tie for fourth in the scoring race with 36 points in 26 outings.

The Avalanche don’t have any other players who are currently excelling, though. Bowen Byram is interesting with two goals and three points over his last four contests. He might be worth some short-term consideration, but the lack of a consistent power-play role is a significant negative.

We also should see Ivan Prosvetov start this week, likely Sunday versus San Jose. He’s been decent when utilized, posting a 2-1-1 record, 2.45 GAA and .919 save percentage in six contests this season, so if you’re looking for a situational pickup in goal, then Prosvetov is a good option.

New Jersey Devils – WED VS BOS, SAT @ CBJ, SUN VS ANA (BTB)

The Devils are a borderline selection because they have just three games this week and their first contest is a home game versus the mighty Bruins on Wednesday. However, New Jersey will then face two of the worst teams in the league with matches in Columbus on Saturday and against the Ducks on Sunday.

If you look at the league leader in terms of points per game, it isn’t Nikita Kucherov, Artemi Panarin or Connor McDavid. That honor instead belongs to Jack Hughes, who has 10 goals and 33 points in just 19 contests. Hughes missed five straight games from Nov. 5-16 due to a shoulder injury but has bounced right back. In particular, he scored four goals and 10 points over a four-game stretch from Nov. 28-Dec. 5. Provided he stays healthy the rest of the way, Hughes is a good bet to surpass his career high of 99 points.

Hughes is far from New Jersey’s sole offensive threat with the team averaging 3.63 goals per game -- fourth in the NHL. However, that’s been counterbalanced by the Devils allowing 3.67 goals per contest, which is the second worst in the league. Their expected goals against per 60 is 3.27, which suggests that part of the problem is New Jersey’s defense, but its goaltending has been lacking too.

Vitek Vanecek is having a disastrous campaign with a 3.60 GAA and an .877 save percentage in 16 contests. The fact that he has a 9-5-0 record despite that is a testament to the Devils’ amazing offense, but for a team with playoff aspirations, Vanecek isn’t looking like an acceptable option. Lately, that’s led to New Jersey pivoting more toward Akira Schmid.

Schmid struggled initially with a 3.46 GAA and an .885 save percentage through his first six appearances in 2023-24, but since then he’s rebounded with a 3-2-0 record, 2.53 GAA and .920 save percentage in five outings. With the 23-year-old outplaying Vanecek, Schmid has a real opportunity to steal the No. 1 gig, which could lead to him accumulating a lot of wins given the offensive support New Jersey can provide.

New York Islanders – MON VS TOR, FRI VS ANA, SAT @BOS (BTB)

The Islanders will start the week with home games versus the Maple Leafs, Ducks and Bruins on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, respectively, before visiting Montreal on Saturday. Toronto and Boston are tough adversaries, but Anaheim and Montreal rank near the bottom of the league, and it helps that the Islanders will be playing mostly at home next week.

Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat have been playing some of the best hockey of their lives recently. Barzal has four goals and 11 points over his last four games, propelling him to nine goals and 27 points in 24 outings this year. Meanwhile, Horvat is on a five-game scoring streak in which he’s scored four goals and nine points, bringing him up to nine markers and 23 points through 24 appearances in 2023-24.

The Islanders have been getting offensive help from less common sources too. Julien Gauthier has two goals and five points in five contests this year. You can consider taking him in the short term, but keep in mind that he’s a depth forward, so once his hot streak ends, he won’t have value in anything but the absolute deepest of leagues.

Similarly, Simon Holmstrom is averaging just 13:38 of ice time this year, so he hasn’t been getting a big enough role to warrant holding him in standard fantasy leagues. However, Holmstrom is an interesting short-term option after scoring two goals and four points over his last four contests.

Toronto Maple Leafs – MON @ NYI, TUE @ NYR (BTB), THU VS CBJ, SAT VS PIT

The Maple Leafs’ schedule isn’t necessarily easy, but it is full with four games ahead of them. They’ll start the week with games in New York versus the Islanders on Monday and the Rangers on Tuesday. Afterwards, the Leafs will return home to host the Blue Jackets on Thursday and Penguins on Saturday.

Goaltender Joseph Woll sustained a leg injury during Thursday’s 4-3 victory over Ottawa and is expected to miss time. He had been serving as the Leafs’ top goaltender, but the injury will at least temporarily force Toronto to pivot back to Ilya Samsonov, who has missed the last two games due to an illness but will presumably be fine by next week. Samsonov has a 3.58 GAA and an .878 save percentage in 10 contests, so he’s been far from ideal, but he shouldn’t be dismissed after recording a 2.33 GAA and a .919 save percentage in 42 outings last season.

Martin Jones might also get a start next week depending on how long Woll is out for. Don’t expect too much out of Jones, though. He had a 3.09 GAA and an .895 save percentage in 220 NHL games from 2018-19 through 2022-23 and more recently has posted a 3.37 GAA and an .870 save percentage in five outings with AHL Toronto. Simply put, he’s not a good option. You might want to keep Dennis Hildeby in the back of your mind, though. The 22-year-old excelled in the Swedish Hockey League and has looked dominant in the AHL this campaign with a 1.89 GAA and a .925 save percentage in nine contests.

Putting the Maple Leafs’ goaltending aside, the team has been led by the usual suspects recently, which is to say that Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews and William Nylander have combined for seven goals and 12 points over Toronto’s last three games. Meanwhile, Max Domi has provided a goal and an assist over his last two contests. He’s been inconsistent offensively, which is unlikely to change so long as he’s averaging just 12:54 of ice time, but he’s an interesting short-term pickup while he’s hot, especially if you’re in a position to benefit from the penalty minutes he can provide.

Vancouver Canucks – TUE VS TBL, THU VS FLA, SAT @ MIN, SUN @ CHI (BTB)

The Canucks will kick off the week by hosting the Lightning on Tuesday and the Panthers on Thursday. They’ll then travel to Minnesota for a contest Saturday and face the Blackhawks in Chicago on Sunday. Those later two games are of particular interest given that they’re against teams not in playoff spots.

Sam Lafferty has bounced around the lineup this campaign, but lately, he’s been playing alongside Elias Pettersson and Ilya Mikheyev. That’s a golden opportunity for the 28-year-old, who has seven goals and 13 points in 27 contests this year. He’s also doing well at the moment with two goals and three points over his last three games. Be careful not to get too excited about Lafferty, whose career high in points is just 27, but his fantasy value will increase meaningfully if his current top-six role proves to be more than just a temporary assignment.

One Canucks player who has trended in the other direction recently is Andrei Kuzmenko. After scoring 39 goals and 74 points in 81 contests last year, the 27-year-old has been limited to four goals and 15 points over 24 outings in 2023-24, including just one point (a goal) over his last eight appearances. Things got so bad that he was even a healthy scratch for two straight games from Nov. 24-25 and he logged just 12:15 of ice time Thursday, his second-lowest total of the season.

While I don’t expect Kuzmenko to repeat his 2022-23 heights, he certainly can do better than he has lately. Given his recent play and his diminished role (which I believe to be temporary), he’s a solid buy-low candidate.

Vegas Golden Knights – TUE VS CGY, FRI VS BUF, SUN VS OTT

Vegas has just three games scheduled next week, but they’re all home contests against teams not in a playoff position. Specifically, the Golden Knights will host the Flames on Tuesday, the Sabres on Friday and the Senators on Sunday.

Jack Eichel is easily the hottest member of the Golden Knights with four goals and nine points over his last four contests, pushing him up to 12 goals and 30 points in 27 contests in 2023-24. Alex Tuch has already worked out great for Buffalo while Peyton Krebs and Noah Ostlund still might be good for the Sabres in the long run, so it’d be overly simplistic to call Vegas the winners of the Eichel trade, but the Golden Knights nevertheless must be thrilled with how that move has worked out.

Ben Hutton has been a bit of a disappointment, though, at least from a fantasy perspective. With Shea Theodore (upper body) unavailable, Hutton has averaged 2:17 of power-play ice time over the last seven contests, up from an average of just 0:25 over his first 14 outings. However, Hutton has just a goal and an assist over his last seven games and neither of those points came with the man advantage. Hutton’s never been much of an offensive force anyway, but it is a shame that he hasn’t gotten any production out of that power-play role.

If Daniil Miromanov (undisclosed) returns before Theodore, then he might take that power-play spot from Hutton. In that scenario, Miromanov would have some fantasy value.

*(BTB) – Denotes the second of a back-to-back series

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Mon, 09 Oct 2023 19:07:29 +0000

Review: With a 50-21-11 record, the Maple Leafs earned 111 points in 2022-2023, the second-highest point total, and fourth highest points percentage in franchise history. Although Toronto was mediocre in terms of shot attempts, ranking 12^th with 52.2% score-and-venue-adjusted Corsi, they did manage to have strong shot quality results, ranking sixth with 54.3% of expected goals. Toronto ranked 11^th with 3.40 goals per game, and for a team that gets criticized frequently for their defensive play, the Leafs finished fifth with 2.71 goals against per game. They also won a playoff series for the first time since 2003-2004 but losing in five games to Florida in the second round put a quick halt to any optimism generated by Toronto’s first-round victory over Tampa Bay. The Leafs have been a strong team, legitimate contenders, but their lack of postseason success looms over everything, and it will be that way until they start delivering results.

What’s Changed? The Maple Leafs replaced GM Kyle Dubas with Brad Treliving, previously of the Calgary Flames, and the Leafs did complete some tidy business in free agency, getting Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, Dylan Gambrell, and enforcer Ryan Reaves up front. They took a chance on veteran defenseman John Klingberg, whose defensive play has been plummeting in recent seasons, but has plenty of experience as a puck-moving blueliner who can quarterback a power play. There is obviously a focus on the Maple Leafs adding grit with Reaves, Bertuzzi, and Domi, though the potential offensive impact of Bertuzzi, Domi, and Klingberg, may be more valuable.

What would success look like? After so many years of losing in the first round, or not making the playoffs at all, the Maple Leafs have reached a point at which winning a playoff round is the minimum and for the season to be considered a success, that will likely require winning at least two rounds, some kind of postseason achievement that goes beyond their frequent disappointments. The good news for the Leafs is that they have the horses to do it. Whether they advance or not, there is little doubt that Toronto has enough talent to achieve more, but until they actually do it, questions will linger.

What could go wrong? It is possible that the Maple Leafs could have a great regular season, playing at an elite level, and they could still get bounced in the first round of the playoffs. That’s easy enough to imagine. If things were to really go wrong for Toronto, it would probably mean a long-term injury to Auston Matthews. It’s not as if the Leafs don’t have other valuable players, but Matthews is the premier goal-scorer that is most difficult to replace. Toronto has enough depth that it can handle some injuries, but if the injuries involve more than one of The Core Four, that could make it more difficult for Toronto to remain a playoff team.

Top Breakout Candidate: On a veteran-laden Maple Leafs team, rookie winger Matthew Knies is the player most likely to have a breakout season. Knies flashed exciting potential in his first taste of NHL action last season, with one assist in three regular-season games before adding four points in seven playoff games. He is a winger with good size and can be a real handful for opposing defenders when he is working down low in the offensive zone or along the boards. Knies may be ticketed for the third line to start the season but has the potential to fill a spot in the top six and if he does that, the rookie could have an instant impact.

Forwards

Auston Matthews

After becoming the first player to score 60 goals in a season in the prior 10 seasons during the 2021-22 season, Auston Matthews took a step back in 2022-23. He only managed 40 goals in 74 games this time while recording one fewer assist at 45. Perhaps, one could consider this a floor for the 26-year-old veteran. As he enters his eighth season, last season’s 12.2% shooting percentage is by far his career low. If he had shot his career average of 15.7% last season, he would have scored 51 goals on his 327 shots. While his shooting percentage may fluctuate, he has ranked no lower than sixth in the NHL in shots on goal per 60 among regular skaters over the last three seasons. Moreover, regression to the mean should not be the only thing driving a bounce-back year for Auston Matthews, as the addition of Tyler Bertuzzi in place of Michael Bunting offers Matthews another elite playmaker as a potential linemate at even strength, and a contributor on the powerplay. Matthews is entering the 2023-24 season with 299 regular season goals, and he does not want it to end with fewer than 350.

Mitchell Marner

Mitch Marner ended his seventh NHL season just one point shy of 100 – a feat he has not accomplished yet in his career thus far. The 26-year-old started his career exclusively known for his playmaking abilities. His shot was seen as weak, although his selection of shots brought him up to a respectable shooting percentage. In the 2021-22 season, Marner jumped to a 35-goal season, converting 15.6% of his shots on goal. Marner followed that up with another 30-goal season with a shooting percentage of 15.3%. This additional threat to opponents that Marner has crafted has brought his game to another level, securing his spot as one of the most dangerous offensive players in the game. It may have also contributed to Toronto’s ability to split the duo up at times. In the 2021 shortened season, Marner spent 84.7% of his 5-on-5 minutes with Matthews. Last season, he spent only 47.3% of his full-strength time with Auston Matthews, spending slightly more time with John Tavares and a combination of wingers. The defensive side of Marner’s game is also well-crafted, enabling Sheldon Keefe and the Maple Leafs coaching staff to use him on the penalty kill as well. He has been on the ice for 44.0% of the Maple Leafs shorthanded time over the last four seasons in games that he has played. The 2023-24 season could be the year Marner surpasses 100 points.

William Nylander

The 2022-23 season featured 19 players with 40 or more goals, and William Nylander was one of them. His 40 goals and 47 assists were career-highs, and his 82 games played was his second complete season of his career. While much of the narrative surrounding Nylander is that he is inconsistent, that only applies to his defensive effort and attention to detail. He has recorded around a point-per-game since seeing an increase in his powerplay usage in the 2021-22 season. He has also been a healthy player most of his career, missing the most time in the 2018-19 season where he held out from signing an extension until December. While his lack of injury history and consistent dual-threat offensive production should make projecting Nylander’s 2023-24 season rather easy, the addition of Tyler Bertuzzi could threaten his powerplay time and therefore his production. A demotion to the second powerplay unit would likely cost around 0.2 points per game. With Nylander’s contract expiring after this season, and with the Maple Leafs intending to re-sign him to an affordable price before he goes to unrestricted free agency, a tie for the first unit time probably goes to someone else.

John Tavares

John Tavares ended the 2022-23 regular season with 36 goals and 44 assists – the first time he cleared the 30-goal mark since his first season as a Maple Leaf in 2018-19. In a saturated Toronto market, the Maple Leafs captain is due to receive scrutiny. However, that scrutiny generally revolves around the comparison of how much he is paid relative to the value he provides on the ice. He ranked 30^th in points last season, and 42^nd the season prior, reflecting a player that is still very good. When the 2023-24 season gets underway, Tavares will be 33 years of age. The forward-thinking Maple Leafs have already begun reducing his time-on-ice over the years. Last season, he played 1.8 fewer minutes per game in all situations, and 2.1 fewer minutes per game at 5-on-5 than he did in the shortened 2019-20 season. The risk to his ice time being cut much further is the latest addition in Toronto of Tyler Bertuzzi. The Maple Leafs coaching staff may conclude that Bertuzzi is the better option at the front of the net on the first powerplay unit, forcing Tavares to win a spot at the bumper or move to the second unit. While it may be best for the team, a demotion off the first powerplay unit would hurt Tavares’ individual stats dramatically.

Tyler Bertuzzi

Tyler Bertuzzi likely entered his contract year in Detroit knowing it would be his last there. He would also miss two of his last five months with the Red Wings out with upper body injuries, the latest being a wrist injury in December. On March 2, Bertuzzi was sent to Boston to chase a Cup with the Boston Bruins. There, he would find success with David Pastrnak. His playmaking abilities from all areas of the offensive zone at even strength and on the powerplay made a dangerous Bruins offense even more dangerous. Bertuzzi was able to score four goals and 12 assists in 21 games with the Bruins as opposed to his four goals and 10 assists in 29 games with the Red Wings. With the lethal shooters that the Maple Leafs have, Bertuzzi’s gritty playmaking style will fit right in. He could be a reasonable option for the first powerplay unit, as the Bruins saw with Jake DeBrusk out of their lineup. The question surrounding Bertuzzi is how much his shooting percentage will rebound. Bertuzzi converted over 16% of his shots on goal in each season from 2018-19 thru 2021. Last season he shot only 7.5% and suffered a wrist injury. If his recent wrist injury has hampered his shooting form, the Leafs did not sign the 30-goal scorer from the 2021-22 season, but a much lesser version of Tyler Bertuzzi.

Max Domi

Following the 2019-20 season, Max Domi left Montreal for a two-year contract in Columbus. Despite the Blue Jackets team lacking forward depth, particularly at center, Domi immediately saw a two minute drop in time on ice per game. During the 2021-22 season, he was traded to the Hurricanes for their playoff run, before signing a one-year contract to be a rental again, going from Chicago to Dallas. Last season could’ve been considered a slight revival for the 5’ 10” forward, scoring 20 goals for the second time in his career. This was partially due to being a shark in a small pond, seeing a hefty amount of powerplay minutes and receiving ice time while behind on a tanking Chicago roster. His biggest weakness is his poor defensive play. This is something that caused him headaches in Columbus and could cause headaches once again with Sheldon Keefe. He is also not an individual play-driver, passing the puck to teammates too quickly at times. And his career faceoff percentage of 48.2% is far from optimal. The Maple Leafs are hoping that Domi can be an effective middle-six passenger at even strength, and a staple on their second powerplay unit. With that, he should see his minutes drop back down again this season, as well as his point total.

David Kampf

For his third season in a row, David Kampf did not miss a single game last season. He also posted another new career-high with 27 points in his 82 games. New general manager Brad Treliving must have thought so highly of the Czech forward that he signed him to a four-year extension in June, days prior to him entering unrestricted free agency. Toronto acquired Kampf from Chicago as a distressed asset in 2021, after he scored only a single goal in 56 games. The Maple Leafs turned around and used him as a staple defensive center in their bottom six. He is a smart player with efficient skating. That duo has led to his success at even strength as well as on the penalty kill. He won’t offer much offensive flare, only crossing 100 career points in his sixth season, but his health, ability to stay out of the box, effectiveness in the faceoff circle, and dependability on the defensive side of the game will keep him in the lineup for years to come. And while you shouldn’t expect too much, perhaps he has a few goals left in him this season.

Calle Jarnkrok

After eight seasons with the Nashville Predators, the Seattle Kraken selected Calle Jarnkrok in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. In his last season in Nashville, he recorded 28 points in 49 games, the highest pace of his career. As a part of an underperforming Seattle team, and a deep Calgary team that pushed him down the lineup, the Swede would fall back to 30 points in 66 games. However, when he explored free agency, Toronto showed interest, signing him to a four-year contract. With the Maple Leafs, Jarnkrok is expected to be an effective, dependable passenger to play-driving linemates. He bounced around from linemate-to-linemate last season, spending no more than 33.9% of his minutes with any forward. He spent some time alongside John Tavares and Auston Matthews with Mitch Marner, but also played down on the third line with the likes of Pierre Engvall and Alex Kerfoot. He scored 20 goals for the first time in his career last season, but he had a massive jump in shooting percentage at 18.9% compared to a career 12.5%. Will his linemates be able to keep his production high, possibly helping him break 40 points, or will he regress back this season?

Sam Lafferty

A fourth-round pick in the 2014 NHL Draft, Pennsylvania-native Sam Lafferty scrapped his way into the Pittsburgh Penguins lineup, playing 50 games in his rookie season in 2019-20. However, it was a move to the Blackhawks early in the 2021-22 season that would help Lafferty break out and make a name for himself in the league. In Chicago, Lafferty would become a regular penalty killer. After scoring four goals and an assist in 99 shorthanded minutes in Chicago last season, the Maple Leafs traded for his services for their playoff run. His breakout wasn’t just limited to his penalty killing prowess, but respectable production at even strength as well, tallying 12 goals and 15 assists in all situations. Lafferty is a speedy bottom six forward, posing a threat to opposing defensemen trying to move the play up the ice against him. His speed may also give him the opportunity to find a spot on the third line at either wing or center in the case of injuries. However, with a healthy lineup, Lafferty should see a slight fall in his production, moving down the lineup in a more defensive role with the Maple Leafs as opposed to the unassigned role with a tanking Blackhawks team.

Defense

Morgan Rielly

Following the November 21^st game against the Islanders, news broke that Morgan Rielly was expected to miss six weeks with a knee injury. His main competition on the roster, Rasmus Sandin, would see an increase in minutes in his absence. The young, Swedish defensemen would play well with the increased minutes, scoring two goals and six assists in the 13 games he played before sustaining a small injury himself. Sandin’s offensive skill set on the back end posed a threat to Rielly’s powerplay and even strength usage. However, come trade deadline, Kyle Dubas and the Toronto Maple Leafs elected to move Rasmus Sandin for a first-round pick and a rental. With Sandin gone, there is even more certainty that Morgan Rielly will own the greatest share of powerplay minutes amongst his teammates on the back end. This offers security to his production, as Rielly has not had fewer than a half a point per game since the 2016-17 season where he only recorded 72 minutes on the powerplay. Morgan Rielly has been seen as the best offensive defenseman on the Maple Leafs roster for some time now, and Toronto reassured their view of that last season.

John Klingberg

Following the 2021-22 season, John Klingberg tested free agency for the first time after not coming to an agreement with the Dallas Stars. With only a small increase in the cap, a market for a long-term extension at the price he wanted dried up. His solution was a one-year deal with the Anaheim Ducks, with the understanding he’d likely move to a playoff team come trade deadline. Unfortunately for Klingberg, he is left with another one-year deal, but on a contending team this time. The 6’ 3” Swedish defenseman has the box score stats of a defenseman who normally would sign long term. And while market conditions may have forced him into a short-term deal again, his extremely poor defensive play has also reduced his market value. Klingberg is looking for a bit of a revival in Toronto. A once free to roam, mobile defenseman became trapped in conservative and unorganized systems at the end of his tenure in Dallas and his short time in Anaheim and Montreal. With a system that is likely a better fit, and a reduction in his usage, Klingberg could find success on the bottom two pairs and on the second powerplay unit.

Timothy Liljegren

After a breakout rookie season with the Maple Leafs in 2021-22, Timothy Liljegren followed it up with much of the same. He scored six goals and 12 assists in 67 games this time, a five point decrease from the year before due to six fewer secondary assists. Liljegren is arguably the best puck-mover on the right-hand side of Toronto’s defensive core, electing to move the puck away from his own net as soon as possible as his main form of defending. But his lack of traditional defending and physical nature is one of the reasons the Maple Leafs coaching staff hasn’t allocated more minutes to him in the past. Liljegren did see a slight uptick in both even strength and special teams minutes last season, but his security in a top four spot was not there as witnessed by being scratched in the playoffs. With Justin Holl out of the picture, Liljegren’s competition for that secured spot will be John Klingberg. If he can prove that he is worthy of taking a spot from a fellow Swede seven years his senior, he could make a big jump. If he fails to do so, at least in the eyes of his coaching staff, then we can expect more of the same from Liljegren, or even a move at the deadline.

Jake McCabe

After missing most of the 2021 season due to injury, Jake McCabe left the Buffalo Sabres for the Chicago Blackhawks in unrestricted free agency. In his first season in Chicago, he would set a career-high 22 points for himself in 75 games. Last season, he finished with another career-high with 25 points in 76 games split between Chicago and Toronto. Jake McCabe earns his NHL minutes with his defensive prowess. He has received top four minutes at even strength and is a main stay on the penalty kill. His 151 blocked shots ranked 21^st among defensemen last season, and his 163 hits ranked 23^rd. Playing his first full season in Toronto, McCabe can expect to take the heavy minutes with defensive zone deployment and tough matchups. In his 350 minutes in Toronto last spring, he spent 169 with fellow defensive-defenseman TJ Brodie. However, he spent limited minutes with Timothy Liljegren who may complement his style of play by assisting with breaking out the puck and following through in transition with the forwards. There is a chance that McCabe’s point production falls if he is put in a dramatic role, but his time on ice will certainly be high.

Goaltending

Ilya Samsonov

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in an intriguing situation to start the 2023-24 season in net, and Ilya Samsonov remains just one piece of the somewhat uncertain puzzle.

Samsonov is quick on his feet, prefers to keep his body moving as he challenges plays, and still maintains the wider stance that has characterized his game – and set it apart from so many other goaltenders in the NHL – since he first crossed the pond as a Washington Capitals prospect. That makes him fast, exciting, and good at accessing some of those higher-danger shots that slower and more methodical goaltenders just don’t seem capable of reaching. But it also makes him less predictable, both for opponents and from a statistical standpoint. And although he finished last season with one of the league’s most respectable save percentages, he remained a little too injury-plagued to feel altogether comfortable tabbing him as a long-term option for success in Toronto. He’s the reclamation project that came out on top, with tandem partner Matt Murray likely out of the picture entirely, but he’s still not a sure shot for Toronto. It seems the team knows that, too; while they could have started the season with just him and wunderkind Joseph Woll as their options to roll out, the cap-strapped Leafs went out and brought in some veteran insurance at the last minute in the form of yet another reclamation project. Martin Jones will join Woll and Samsonov to start the season, and while he’s likely the odd man out, the fact that Toronto signed him in the first place suggests that they aren’t completely sold on the tandem they have to work with just yet.

Projected starts: 40-45

Joseph Woll

It seems all but impossible that Toronto goaltending prospect Joseph Woll would clear waivers if the Leafs tried to hide him away in the AHL for another season, and his lack of waiver exemption status this year forces their hand a bit; it’s do or die time for the team and the former Boston College standout.

That’s not super concerning from a technical standpoint, since Woll has been one of the most impressive young goaltenders in North America for a handful of years now. He was the confident and collected predecessor at BC to Spencer Knight, controlling his crease at the collegiate level in a way that suggested he’d be a perfect candidate to make a short stop in the minors before taking over at the NHL level almost immediately upon going pro. Then, he suffered multiple consecutive injuries, and his development arc derailed just enough that Toronto was left scrambling; now, they’re stuck trying to navigate a need to get him into games, a starter who has been streaky over his career both in numbers and in health, and an aging Martin Jones who hasn’t hit league average stats in over half a decade. The good news, though, is that he plays the kind of game that should make it easy for Toronto to integrate him into their lineup whenever they need; he plays a game that focuses on keeping control of his depth and angles from his feet in order to eliminate the need for extra movement, serving as an interesting foil to Samsonov’s wild style. It’s unclear just what Toronto wants his role to be next year, but we’re likely only a season or two away from seeing Joseph Woll as the team’s clear-cut number one – it’s just a matter of figuring out how Toronto wants to handle the passing of the torch.

Projected starts: 30-35

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS FLORIDA PANTHERS – A path opens up in the East for fortunate Leafs and surprising Panthers

Scott Cullen — Mon, 01 May 2023 17:28:02 +0000

TORONTO, ON - MARCH 29: Florida Panthers center Aleksander Barkov (16) plays the puck against Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) in the third period during the NHL regular season game between the Florida Panthers and the Toronto Maple Leafs on March 29, 2023 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Gavin Napier/Icon Sportswire)

TORONTO vs. FLORIDA

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2004 and have home ice advantage after the Florida Panthers pulled off a massive upset against the top-seeded Boston Bruins in the first round.

Now that they have broken the first-round seal, are the Maple Leafs ready to go on a Stanley Cup run? Can the Panthers carry their first-round magic forward? Ousting the Lightning and the Bruins, respectively, opens up potential opportunities for the team that can emerge from the Atlantic Division.

Forwards

Toronto’s high-priced forwards have taken plenty of criticism over the years for not rising to the occasion in the playoffs, but Toronto’s big dogs showed up against Tampa Bay. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander produced 13 goals and 34 points against Tampa Bay. The supporting cast matters but getting production from the stars at the top of the depth chart sets the foundation for a team to achieve success.

One of Toronto’s apparent strengths is that they have solid contributors beyond the core four. Ryan O’Reilly contributed seven points in the first round and Calle Jarnkrok moved up to play with Matthews and Marner. Rookie Matthew Knies added three assists and the Leafs controlled 57.4% of expected goals with him on the ice during five-on-five play.

Michael Bunting was suspended for three games in the series against Tampa Bay, then was a healthy scratch for Game 5, so he has more to offer, and it might be further down the depth chart because Toronto’s fourth line of Zach Aston-Reese, David Kampf, and Sam Lafferty managed 35.9% of shot attempts and 32.9% of expected goals during five-on-five play against Tampa Bay.

Matthew Tkachuk had an incredible season for the Panthers and carried that play into the playoffs against Boston. The Panthers’ winger put up 11 points and 22 shots on goal in the first round, with Florida controlling 63.4% of expected goals against Boston when Tkachuk was on the ice during five-on-five play. The Maple Leafs will need to find a solution to the problem that Tkachuk presents as a skilled and physical force.

Sam Bennett got into the Boston series in Game 2 and was an impact performer, with five points and 20 shots on goal in six games. Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, Eetu Luostarinen, and Anton Lundell all played solid contributing roles against the Bruins.

Maybe the most surprising part for Florida is that Aleksander Barkov had a hard time against Boston. He produced one goal and six points, but the Panthers only held 40.4% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Barkov on the ice. For a Panthers team that tends to lean on their stars, Barkov will need to elevate his game if they are going to advance.

Defense

After an up-and-down regular season, Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly stepped up and delivered an outstanding series against Tampa Bay. Rielly had three goals and eight points against Tampa Bay with Toronto getting 56.7% of expected goals and outscoring the Lightning 9-3 during five-on-five play with Rielly on the ice. Luke Schenn was frequently paired with Rielly and while Schenn struggled late in the regular season, he was excellent against Tampa Bay, with Toronto pulling 61.1% of expected goals with Schenn on the ice.

T.J. Brodie and Jake McCabe are an effective shutdown pair for Toronto, with McCabe providing a necessary physical element. Schenn and McCabe combined for 66 hits in the first round.

The third pairing was a trouble spot for Toronto against Tampa Bay. Justin Holl and Mark Giordano had just 40.0% of expected goals during five-on-five play and the Leafs were out-scored 9-2 during five-on-five play when Holl was on the ice against Tampa Bay. As a result, Timothy Liljegren and Erik Gustafsson were pressed into action in Game 6. It would make sense for Toronto to give Liljegren a chance to upgrade that pairing but it would not be a surprise for Holl to get a fresh start against the Panthers.

Brandon Montour’s breakout season continued in the first round against Boston. The right-shot blueliner put up five goals and eight points with 22 shots on goal. His confidence is soaring, and he is always ready to launch one-timers from the point on the power play. Montour has been paired with Marc Staal so that duo is vulnerable during five-on-five play. They had 40.5% of expected goals and were outscored 6-3 against the Bruins.

Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling formed an effective shutdown pair against Boston, controlling 55.1% of expected goals while the Panthers outscored the Bruins 8-2 with that duo on the ice during five-on-five play.

Josh Mahura was an under-the-radar pleasant surprise for Florida in the first round. Acquired off waivers from the Anaheim Ducks before the start of the season, Mahura averaged less than 11 minutes per game against Boston, but the Panthers earned 54.4% of shot attempts and 63.2% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Mahura on the ice. Radko Gudas stands out as the heavy hitter on this blueline, but he is somewhat vulnerable if he gets caught out there against speedy and skilled forwards.

Toronto’s group is steadier overall, but both teams have some question marks on the back end, which could ultimately cause problems.

Goaltending

Although he experienced some highs and lows against Tampa Bay, Ilya Samsonov ultimately picked up his first career playoff series victory. His save percentage was just .900, and he let in a few soft goals, but he had stellar performances in Game 3 and Game 6. Given his lack of a playoff track record, there is still plenty of uncertainty around Samsonov heading into this series, but he is clearly Toronto’s number one option with Joseph Woll in the backup role.

The Panthers opened the playoffs with Alex Lyon starting in goal against Boston and he had a .902 save percentage in three games, but Florida eventually turned to Sergei Bobrovsky, who is a high-wire act at this point.

Bobrovsky was erratic in games four and six against Boston and was excellent in game five and seven, ultimately backstopping the Panthers to three straight wins to finish the series. Bobrovsky has a .900 save percentage in 56 career playoff games, including .891 in five appearances this spring, so he is not an easy man to trust under these circumstances.

Goaltending is always important in the postseason, but it would be fair to say that both the Maple Leafs and Panthers have some uncertainty at the position heading into Round 2.

Special Teams

Toronto’s power play was among the best during the regular season and that carries over into the playoffs. During five-on-four play, the Leafs scored 12.48 goals per 60 minutes, ranking fifth among 16 playoff teams in the first round. Toronto’s big boys were firing on the power play, with Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, and O’Reilly all getting on the board against the Lightning.

Florida was closer to the middle of the pack, ranking ninth with 7.60 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. Tkachuk led the way with five power play points and Montour added a pair of power play goals against the Bruins.

Tampa Bay’s power play posed a problem for the Maple Leafs in the first round, scoring 10.92 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranked 10^th. However, that was still more successful than the Panthers, who allowed 15.31 goals per 60 minutes, ranking 13^th among playoff teams. A compounding issue for Florida is that they were one of three teams in the first round to spend more than six minutes per game playing four-on-five. By comparison, the Maple Leafs averaged 4:34 per game. That discipline could make a difference.

Conclusion

Toronto had some good fortune against Tampa Bay, picking up three overtime wins, including some in games that they did not necessarily deserve to win. For a team that is now a co-favorite to win the Stanley Cup and had a long drought of not winning a playoff series, they are in good position, but can hardly afford to look past the Panthers.

While Florida’s upset of the Bruins seems monumental because Boston just put up the most regular season points in history, the underlying numbers suggested that Florida was better than their place in the standings and they caught enough breaks to make the difference. If they could do that against Boston, who is to say that is couldn’t happen against Toronto? I’ll side with the Maple Leafs…cautiously. Maple Leafs in 6.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Key trade deadline moves with fantasy impact

Scott Cullen — Fri, 03 Mar 2023 23:17:52 +0000

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 02: New York Rangers Left Wing Artemi Panarin (10) and New York Rangers Right Wing Patrick Kane (88) talk during the National Hockey League game between the Ottawa Senators and the New York Rangers on March 2, 2023 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week brought a flurry of trades even before Friday’s NHL Trade Deadline and then not so much on deadline day. Nevertheless, here is a look at the potential impact of the most significant moves, including Patrick Kane, Timo Meier, Jakob Chychrun, Shayne Gostisbehere, Tyler Bertuzzi and many more.

#1 When the New York Rangers traded for Vladimir Tarasenko, it looked like Patrick Kane might not get his wish to end up on Broadway. Kane re-ignited trade interest by putting up 10 points (7 G, 3 A) in his last four games with the Blackhawks and he should be productive in New York, where he will have a stronger supporting cast and is re-united with former Blackhawks linemate Artemi Panarin. Overall, this probably improves Kane’s value down the stretch but his strong finish in Chicago ensures that he won’t be any kind of buy-low bargain for fantasy managers.

#2 A shot generating beast, Timo Meier was acquired by the New Jersey Devils from the San Jose Sharks and while he is recovering from an upper-body injury, there is an excellent opportunity awaiting him with the Devils. Whether he ends up with either Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes as his center, Meier is going to be in position to keep producing at an elite level. He had 31 goals in 57 games with San Jose, averaging a career-high 4.47 shots on goal per game. As for the Sharks, they will offer a bigger role for Fabian Zetterlund, who had 20 points (6 G, 14 A) in 46 games for New Jersey and Andreas Johnsson, who has been stuck in the minors for most of the season and had 30 points (9 G, 21 A) in 36 AHL games, but they would only hold appeal in the deepest of leagues.

#3 The Ottawa Senators landed one of the most sought-after defensemen with the addition of Jakob Chychrun from the Arizona Coyotes. Chychrun has had trouble staying healthy throughout his career but has also been very productive when he is on the ice. Since 2018-2019, among defensemen that have played at least 200 games, Chychrun ranks sixth with 0.19 goals per game (49 goals in 256 games) and seventh with 2.73 shots on goal per game. The question is whether Chychrun has a chance to supplant Thomas Chabot on Ottawa’s top power play unit. In Arizona, Juuso Valimaki is set to take over as the full-time quarterback on the Coyotes power play. He has 10 assists, including five with the man advantage, in the past 11 games.

#4 One of the reasons that Valimaki is the new No. 1 option on the Arizona blueline is that, in addition to trading Chychrun, the Coyotes dealt puck-moving defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere to Carolina. Gostisbehere will get regular power play time with the Hurricanes and given Carolina’s five-on-five dominance, he should see an uptick in production at even strength, too. The Hurricanes also acquired right winger Jesse Puljujarvi from Edmonton. While Puljujarvi is probably more of a long-term project, who arrives with 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in 58 games, he did score 29 goals in 120 games over the previous two seasons. He has been a strong play-driving winger, which fits in Carolina, but Puljujarvi may also have some untapped offensive potential, too.

#5 With long-term injuries hitting wingers Taylor Hall and Nick Foligno, the Boston Bruins wasted no time in dealing for Tyler Bertuzzi from the Detroit Red Wings. Bertuzzi was an attractive commodity on the trade market even though he had just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 29 games for Detroit. He was scoring on a career-low 6.5% of his shots, with a 7.8% on-ice shooting percentage, so he is probably due for some positive regression when it comes to his percentages. With Bertuzzi departing Detroit, Dominik Kubalik moved back up to the Wings’ top line.

#6 Power forward Nino Niederreiter landed with the Winnipeg Jets after scoring 28 points (18 G, 10 A) in 56 games for the Nashville Predators. Niederreiter is a six-time 20-goal scorer and should have a good opportunity to produce down the stretch for Winnipeg. He played more than 18 minutes in his first game for the Jets, something Niederreiter did in 11 of 56 games for the Predators. While Nashville has made several changes, one of the more notable moves was to call John Leonard up from the AHL, where he had 32 points (11 G, 21 A) in 52 games for Milwaukee. Leonard scored in his first game for the Preds, skating on a line with Cody Glass and Matt Duchene.

#7 After scoring 24 goals as a rookie last season, Tanner Jeannot was snakebit for most of this season in Nashville, scoring just five goals and 14 points in 56 games. He also had 213 hits and can drop the gloves, if need be, so he can have an impact without scoring, but the Tampa Bay Lightning will try to rekindle Jeannot’s touch around the net. He is skating on the third line with Ross Colton and Nick Paul, a line that should be tough to play against. With Jeannot gone, Cole Smith has joined Colton Sissons and Yakov Trenin on Nashville’s checking line.

#8 One more deal for Nashville, as they sent Mikael Granlund to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Granlund had 36 points (9 G, 27 A) in 58 games for the Preds, and has three seasons in his career with more than 60 points, so he has the skill to be a productive contributor. At the same time, it is not like he is stepping into a big role with the Penguins. In his first game for Pittsburgh, Granlund played mostly with Jeff Carter and Danton Heinen, which is not the best spot for putting up points. Granlund’s departure from Nashville does open up room for a scoring winger and recently called up right winger Philip Tomasino has a chance to take advantage of that situation. Tomasino had 32 points (12 G, 20 A) in 38 AHL games before getting called up and has five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games since his promotion.

#9 The Vancouver Canucks made one trade with an eye to the future and one that is more geared to the present. First, they sent checking winger William Lockwood to the New York Rangers for Vitali Kravtsov, a 23-year-old winger who had fallen out of favor with the Blueshirts after managing six points (3 G, 3 A) in 28 games. Kravtsov might have some long-term upside but is not likely to offer fantasy value this season. Vancouver’s other major deal involved the addition of Filip Hronek from the Detroit Red Wings. Hronek is a 25-year-old right shot defenseman who has already tied his career high with 38 points (9 G, 29 A) in 60 games. However, 16 of those 38 points have come on the power play and it would seem unlikely that Hronek would get first unit power play time ahead of Quinn Hughes in Vancouver. Hronek’s departure does open up more of an opportunity on the power play for Detroit’s sophomore blueliner Moritz Seider, who started slowly, but has 18 points (2 G, 16 A) in his past 23 games.

#10 The St. Louis Blues continued to sell off veteran talent, dealing versatile forward Ivan Barbashev to the Vegas Golden Knights. Barbashev had a career-high 60 points in 2021-2022 and is not likely to get to that level again, but had 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 59 games for St. Louis before the trade. Barbashev is getting an excellent opportunity in Vegas, skating on the top line with Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault, so Barbashev is worth tracking in his new location. St. Louis has overhauled a lot of their forward group, but waiver pickup Kasperi Kapanen is looking at a better role than he had in Pittsburgh. Kapanen had 20 points (7 G, 13 A) in 43 games for the Penguins, but was playing just 12 minutes per game. He will play more than that in St. Louis and is getting a look alongside Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich.

The Blues picked up a winger desperately in need of a fresh start. Jakub Vrana was traded from Detroit to St. Louis and the 27-year-old winger spent some time in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program this season. He had just two points (1 G, 1 A) in five games for the Red Wings as well as 11 points (6 G, 5 A) in 17 AHL games. However, when he was not injured or otherwise out of the lineup Vrana did score 22 goals in 42 games with Detroit, so there is obvious upside for a team like St. Louis, that is not looking for a full rebuild, but a quick turnaround instead. Tread cautiously with adding Vrana for this season but see what kind of opportunity he gets with the Blues and expect that he will have sleeper value next season.

#11 The Edmonton Oilers bolstered their roster with the additions of defenseman Mattias Ekholm from Nashville and center Nick Bjugstad from Arizona. Ekholm is a defensive standout, but is a capable puck mover, too, and has recorded more than 30 points in five different NHL seasons. Tyson Barrie went to Nashville in the Ekholm deal and going from Edmonton’s power play to Nashville’s power play is going to be a shock to the system. Edmonton has scored 12.50 goals per 60 during five-on-four play, easily the best in the league, while Nashville has scored 6.34 goals per 60, ranking 24^th. Barrie scored 28 of his 43 points with the man advantage and will be replaced on the Oilers power play by Evan Bouchard, who has been able to generate points at evens, but has 14 of his 70 career points on the power play. Since the Oilers’ power play is driven more by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, Bouchard should benefit from the new role. Bjugstad had 13 goals and 23 points in 59 games for Arizona, but he is likely to fill a bottom six role with the Oilers, so should not bring much fantasy value.

#12 The Los Angeles Kings, feeling like contenders, upgraded their defense and goaltending in a trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets, acquiring blueliner Vladislav Gavrikov and netminder Joonas Korpisalo, while sending goalie Jonathan Quick to Columbus. Gavrikov tallied a career-high 33 points last season but has just 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in 52 games this season, so he does not offer much fantasy appeal. Korpisalo, however, is looking at the opportunity to start for a team that is headed to the playoffs. Over the course of his career, Korpisalo has mostly been a below average goaltender, but he had a .919 save percentage in his last 17 games for Columbus and that is good enough for him to count as an upgrade for a Kings team that needed AHL call-up Pheonix Copley to save their season. Quick was reportedly not happy about the deal to Columbus and was then flipped to the Vegas Golden Knights. With Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit injured, Vegas could use someone to back up behind Adin Hill. Quick had a .876 save percentage in 31 games for the Kings, which would be a career-low mark for the 37-year-old goaltender. All of this is to say that Quick does not offer much for fantasy managers at this stage of his career.

#13 The Toronto Maple Leafs continued their active ways, dealing defenseman Rasmus Sandin to the Washington Capitals for Erik Gustafsson and a first-round pick. Sandin has a chance to play a substantial role in Washington for the rest of this season and beyond. With John Carlson injured, and Gustafsson heading to Toronto, Sandin is looking at a prime situation in which he can quarterback Washington’s first power play unit. Gustafsson, who had scored 11 of his 38 points with Washington while on the man advantage, is tied for 15^th among defensemen with 27 even-strength points. However, Toronto’s blueline looks awfully crowded so, barring a sudden change, Gustafsson is likely to fall into a depth role, virtually eliminating his fantasy appeal. Toronto also added defensemen Jake McCabe and Luke Schenn, as well as center Sam Lafferty, any of whom might help Toronto’s plans to add grit for the postseason, but none of them look like fantasy contributors.

#14 The Dallas Stars acquired Evgeni Dadonov from the Montreal Canadiens, sending Denis Gurianov the other way. The Stars also brought in center Max Domi from the Chicago Blackhawks. Dadonov is a skilled veteran winger who had a shooting percentage of 5.6% and on-ice shooting percentage of 6.6% for the Habs, both of which are likely to get a natural lift – he’s due! Dadonov has three points (1 G, 2 A) and eight shots on goal in three games for the Stars, skating on a line with Jamie Benn and Wyatt Johnston. Gurianov had just two goals in 43 games for Dallas, but he scored 20 goals in 2019-2020, so there is some upside there and the Habs have the time to draw it out of him. Gurianov scored a goal in his second game for Montreal and played more than 17 minutes in his first two games for the Canadiens, a threshold he had not hit this season in Dallas. Domi wrapped up his tenure with the Blackhawks by scoring 14 points (4 G, 10 A) with 29 shots on goal in his last eight games. He has 49 points, his most in a season since scoring 72 points in 2018-2019. He will be in more of a supporting role with Dallas, so while he may contribute in Dallas, his fantasy value has probably peaked already. With Domi gone, 2020 first-round pick Lukas Reichel has been promoted from the AHL, where he had 46 points (17 G, 29 A) in 51 games for Rockford. Reichel has stepped into Domi’s spot, centering Chicago’s top line between Andreas Athanasiou and Philipp Kurashev.

#15 The Minnesota Wild made some modest deals to improve their forward depth before making bigger deals at the deadine. First, they added Gustav Nyquist from the Columbus Blue Jackets and Marcus Johansson from the Washington Capitals. Nyquist is injured, but should be healthy by the time the playoffs roll around and he is a competent scoring middle six winger. Johansson could have a little fantasy sleeper value. He had 28 points (13 G, 15 A) in 60 games for Washington, but started his second stint with the Wild by playing more than 16 minutes while skating on a line with Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy.

The Wild then added defenseman John Klingberg from Anaheim, where he had 24 points (8 G, 16 A) in 50 games, and just going to a better team ought to help Klingberg’s production. Will he step into the Wild’s top power play unit? The Wild rank 10^th with 8.18 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, but rookie defenseman Calen Addison is the top-scoring power play defenseman for the Wild and he has been a healthy scratch recently.

Minnesota also shipped winger Jordan Greenway to Buffalo, but he had just seven points (2 G, 5 A) in 45 games. Greenway produced a career-high 32 points (6 G, 26 A) in 56 games in 2020-2021, but has typically not scored enough to matter for fantasy purposes. The Wild replaced Greenway on the roster with Oskar Sundqvist, who had 21 points (7 G, 14 A) in 52 games for Detroit. Of all these additions by the Wild, Klingberg is the only one with widespread fantasy appeal.

#16 Although he played just 13 minutes per game for the Toronto Maple Leafs, lanky winger Pierre Engvall could have a better situation waiting for him with the New York Islanders, at least in the short term. With injuries up front, the Isles have Engvall starting out with Anders Lee and Bo Horvat on the top line. It’s worth giving him a look. In 21 games this season in which Engvall played more than 14 minutes, he contributed seven goals and four assists.

#17 With the deals covered, there are still some players that are heating up and worth adding, starting with the Devils’ Dawson Mercer. The second year forward has scored a goal in seven straight games, putting up 14 points (9 G, 5 A) with 22 shots on goal. He has a good thing going on a line with Nico Hischier and Tomas Tatar.

#18 Carolina’s second year right winger Seth Jarvis has returned to the top line, alongside Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. He has seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past six games and his increased shot rate makes it easier to buy him as a scoring threat down the stretch.

#19 Trying to recapture last season’s magic, when Ryan Hartman had a career high 34 goals and 65 points the Minnesota Wild have re-united Hartman with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello on the top line. Hartman has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past seven games.

#20 Scoring Buffalo’s only goal in Thursday’s 7-1 loss at Boston, Casey Mittelstadt is on a tear, with 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past 10 games. That shot rate is concerning when it comes to sustaining his offensive production, but Mittelstadt is up to a career high 38 points (10 G, 28 A) in 60 games and that warrants consideration in deeper leagues.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS – NHL Player Profiles

Corey Sznajder – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 22:28:52 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 24: Chicago Blackhawks Defenceman Seth Jones (4) skates in warm-ups before a Los Angeles Kings game versus the Chicago Blackhawks on March 24, 2022 at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Patrick Kane

Entering the final year of his contract, the talk surrounding Kane is less about his performance and more about where he’s going to be playing by the end of the season. It’s unknown if he wants to stick around for a teardown rebuild and he will be a coveted player if the Hawks make him available. Still one of the league’s stars, Kane is one of a few players who you can bookmark for at least 90 points regardless of his team situation. He has the hands to make impossible plays happen and his passing can change the pace of the game on a dime, halting for a second to freeze the defense and finding a teammate entering the zone with speed seconds later. It papers over some of his concerns away from the puck and makes any line he’s on dangerous. This year is going to be an interesting transition year for him. Kane usually has a sidekick who can read off of him, whether that’s Artemi Panarin or Alex DeBrincat. This year will be a little different with the talent drain in Chicago. Kane has produced with the likes of Artem Anisimov and Nick Schmaltz before, but it’s hard to say if the Hawks even have players of that quality on their roster now. Elite talent always finds a way to produce, but there’s going to be more pressure on just him to carry the load, which doesn’t seem possible given he’s already averaging 22-23 minutes a night. To say this will be a challenging year for him would be an understatement.

Jonathan Toews

It was obvious that Toews wasn’t himself during the first half of the year. It took him until early December to score his first goal and he struggled to make an impact in any area of the game. This wasn’t unexpected after he missed the entire 2021 season, but it was hard to figure out what the “new normal” would be for the Hawks captain. He turned the corner a bit during the second half, not producing the same way he used to but getting back to being a solid play-driver on a line with Brandon Hagel and Dominik Kubalik. Slow starts were a running theme for Toews even before 2020, so last year wasn’t out of the ordinary. What’s a little concerning for the Hawks is that Toews needs a lot more help from his linemates now. He doesn’t carry the puck as often as he used to and is more of a support player than someone driving the bus. Hagel was a great support guy for him for that reason, a worker bee type of winger to help get the puck from Point A to Point B while Toews drove the middle or provided support on breakouts. His production next year could depend on how much the Hawks pair him with Patrick Kane. Even at their age, they still have instant chemistry and Toews will get his points with Kane by his side. It’s been more of an “in case of emergency” thing for the Hawks recently because of the team’s depth, but with so few options and Toews also on an expiring contract, it might become more of a regular fixture.

Max Domi

Three years have gone by and Max Domi has gone from Montreal’s top-line center to just another guy in Columbus. The Jackets struggled to figure out the best way to use the skilled playmaker, not fitting at the top of their lineup and struggling to find chemistry with anyone. He couldn’t play with the same pace he did in Montreal and found himself relegated a third line role on the wing. His great passing chops would appear in spurts, but more off turnovers and plays where he was standing still to find someone going to the net instead of the play-driver he was at his peak. The same can be said for his brief stint with the Hurricanes where he was just a depth player. He had a few nice games and played hard but only had moments where he was a game-breaker for them. With Chicago, he’s getting another chance to show that he can drive his own line and play in the middle. They have some decent speed on the wing to pair him with, so the door is open for him to show teams he still be a difference maker at the NHL level. A fresh start on a new team (and a year where he isn’t recovering from shoulder surgery) could help.

Andreas Athansiou

Speed to burn. That has been Athanasiou’s tagline since he started playing hockey. Putting the rest of his skillset together has been a challenge aside from one 30-goal season in Detroit. His first year with the Kings was a step in the right direction, as he was used up and down the lineup to form “skilled checking lines” with the likes of Blake Lizotte and Gabriel Vilardi, doing a better job of using his linemates instead of trying to fly for a breakaway on every shift. It earned him a spot on the Danault line before injuries kept him from being a key player in the LA lineup. When healthy, Athansiou was on-pace for one of his best NHL seasons from a point-per-game pace (granted with only 28 games played). Still, he was trusted with some good minutes, ending the regular season on a line with Kopitar and Kempe and providing a jolt of “instant offense” to whatever line he was on. Doing this over 82 games will be a challenge, but on a Chicago team in desperate need of skill, he is a welcomed addition.

Tyler Johnson

It’s easy to forget that this is Tyler Johnson’s second year on the Blackhawks because injuries limited him to only 26 games. Between neck surgery and a concussion, the two-time Cup champion never had a chance to begin his career in Chicago. He started to find some traction late in the year on a line with Toews and Kublaik, recording four of his seven points in the month of April when the Hawks put that unit together. The veteran brings a little of everything to the table. He was a great shooter during his prime years in Tampa Bay and has the hockey sense to play off elite linemates, finding soft spots in the defense, giving them a passing option and being the guy who can carry the puck into the zone. The question is how much of that skillset is still intact after so many injuries. He’s only 32 years old, but with over 615 games to his credit, the miles and wear-and-tear on your body starts to add up. Johnson can still move well enough to be a decent support player on a checking line, but it’s tough to say if he can be a dangerous offensive player now. He should have plenty of opportunities to prove this in Chicago this year.

Sam Lafferty

Acquired in a mid-season trade for Alex Nylander, Lafferty filled some of the Hawks needs. He’s a hard-working forechecker and gave the Hawks a small jolt of energy whenever he was out there. The Hawks moved him around the lineup, including giving him time with Kane and DeBrincat and did his job as someone who will play physical with speed and recover pucks. Making plays with the same pace was a challenge, as his point total would indicate, but his lines did a nice job of at least titling the ice. This isn’t a small accomplishment on last year’s Hawks team, as even their good players got caved in from a territorial standpoint. Don’t expect much offense from Lafferty, but a guy like him is needed on a rebuilding team. There are going to be a lot of tough games and the Hawks need some guys who will at least inject some life into the lineup and can play on different lines.

Colin Blackwell

It’s rare for a player to make the NHL in his late 20’s these days, but Colin Blackwell did just that a couple of years ago. Selected by the Kraken in the expansion draft after a 12-goal season with the Rangers, the Harvard grad found a niche as a nice defensive forward on a line with Yanni Gourde and Mason Appleton. He had some scoring upside with the minors and in his brief stint in New York but excelled more with the details of the game after leaving the Rangers (and Panarin’s right wing). He has a jack of all trades type of skillset and was a fixture on Seattle’s aggressive penalty kill, being one of their leaders in shorthanded entries. It was enough to catch the attention of the Toronto Maple Leafs at the trade deadline, who quickly incorporated them as part of their penally kill rotation in the playoffs. The offensive side of the game can be a struggle for Blackwell at times, but his knack for stealing pucks and playing a strong forechecking game make him a great fit on a checking line. This is the role he will likely play in Chicago with some heavy penalty killing duty added in.

Taylor Raddysh

Finally graduating from Syracuse, Raddysh was given every opportunity to succeed in a lower line role with the Lightning. He was a nice player for them and showed that he can play a strong game from the hashmarks down, but he proved to be redundant in their system and he was dealt to Chicago as part of the Brandon Hagel trade. His Hawks career got off to a great start with five goals in his first six games and after that it was tough sailing. Raddysh scored only 4 goals in his last 15 games, two of them coming in the same game, despite getting consistent second line minutes with Jonathan Toews and power play time on top of that. Attempts to make him a goal-scorer who you could setup in the bumper spot didn’t go as smoothly as planned and Raddysh was best utilized as someone who could be the first forward in on the forecheck rather than a scorer. With two years left on his deal, the Hawks have some time to figure out what they have in the former 2^nd round pick. They have plenty of grinders on the roster, so Raddysh developing a scoring touch would help him stick around.

Philipp Kurashev

Kurashev’s highlight reel from his rookie year paints a warped picture of him. He scored some absolutely beautiful goals during the 2021 season and looked like a perfect complementary player for this next chapter of Hawks hockey. Those moments were few and far between, though and Kurashev ended up getting lost in depth forward purgatory by the end of the year. This year was an interesting turn. The goal-scoring touch that he had his rookie year was gone, two of his six goals went off a defender, but there was more of an all-around element to his game. He was more willing to be the first guy into the zone on the forecheck, not trying to split defenders or carry the puck through traffic or force plays that weren’t open. The more direct approach to his game made him a more reliable player away from the puck and helped him find a niche as an energy line type of player with some playmaking upside. A nice player to have for this year, but also a guy who might get lost in the shuffle if there isn’t another level to his game.

DEFENSE

Seth Jones

When Chicago made the trade for Seth Jones and signed him under contract until 2030, the idea was he would be a franchise cornerstone defenseman who could raise the tide of their roster. Instead, they got a defenseman who could log a lot of ice-time, play solid in those minutes but not change the game as much as they hoped. In the vacuum, Jones had a typical season for his standards, and it was a major bounce-back from his final year in Columbus. Some of the warts in his game are still there. He’s a dynamic, explosive skater when the play is moving north and showed that with some of the splash plays he provided on offense. When skating backwards, however, he has trouble containing speed and will misjudge where the puck is going. There aren’t many defensemen who can do both at an elite level, but the Hawks didn’t play with the defensive structure to cover up for Jones’ weakness here. You would see him get caught in the middle while defending entries, unsure if he should protect the middle or chase to the outside. It’s the game you often get stuck in on a team that struggles to control play like the Hawks. The mistakes aren’t always the player’s fault, but they add up overtime. Interim head coach Derek King did a good job of simplifying the games for Jones, but he still carried a heavy burden and only making a major impact on the power play. Jones is stuck in a tough place with a rebuild on the horizon, but he is one of the Hawks go-to guys for now and finding him a partner to replace the departing Calvin de Haan will be a top priority.

Jake McCabe

The longtime Buffalo Sabre set a career high in points with 22 in 75 games, which is a little surprising with how long he has been around. It was a bright spot compared to some of his underlying numbers. McCabe was the victim of Chicago’s volatile defensive system, posting one of the worst Expected Goal Differentials on the team at five-on-five. Part of that is his limited offensive skills and the Hawks exposing some of his weaknesses with defending the rush. He’s a lanky defender with decent puck skills, but not the most agile player in the world and only 12 months removed from knee surgery. He had difficulty turning to retrieve pucks and containing speed, which is concerning for a player who was signed to be more of a steadying presence. Oddly enough, some of his best plays from last year came on at the other side of the rink, showing some decent vision from the left point behind the Hawks top line. Originally signed to play alongside Seth Jones, he could see more time on that pair after spending most of last season in a secondary shutdown role alongside Conor Murphy.

Connor Murphy

Prior to last season, Connor Murphy was the only true shutdown defenseman on the Hawks roster. While mobile, he spent most of his shifts in the defensive zone and was always the one putting out fires there for the Hawks while supplement it with some splash offense off the rush. Last year was another usual season for him, playing on the team’s second pair in a shutdown role with heavy penalty killing duty, but the additions of McCabe, Caleb Jones and Stillman made his skillset a little redundant. He is the most defensively sound member of that group, so his contributions were easy to get lost in the shuffle, although not so much to the Hawks who inked him to a four-year contract. It’s tough to say if Murphy will be relied on for more offense this year. He skates well and has a sneaky good wrist shot when he jumps in, but those moments are becoming once every month now instead of once every few games. It’s less about the willingness to do it and more that he burns so much energy blocking shots and chasing pucks down while defending that he has to change before even thinking about starting a rush. He is someone who could benefit from stronger play-driving in Chicago, which will be tough with the current state of their roster.

Caleb Jones

The younger brother of Seth, it took some time for the Hawks to work Caleb Jones into their lineup, missing the first month of the season with a wrist injury. He was in-and-out of the lineup for most of the season, caught in the middle of not being a trusted veteran and being too “old” to be considered a prospect. Jones had some skills the Hawks needed, as he’s very good at using his stick to disrupt entries and is a good enough skater to keep forwards to the outside. His passing was also a welcome addition to their backend which lacked puck skills, as he provided a nice safety valve for Murphy or McCabe when he got in the lineup. The caveat is that he played a sheltered role for most of the year, exiting the zone on more regroups and controlled plays than beating forechecks. Jones became more of a fixture on the second pair later in the season and is an interesting piece for the Hawks heading into next year. He doesn’t have the reputation as an impact player yet but could be someone Chicago gives more responsibility to with a real lack of mobility on their blue line and a spot on the second power play unit up for grabs.

GOALTENDING

Petr Mrazek

It’s been an up-and-down career for Petr Mrazek, and it’s hard to get overly excited about his latest stop on the league tour. He’ll be presumably taking the reins in Chicago, where a disastrous handful of seasons has left the club – so recently considered a dynasty – sitting at the bottom of the NHL’s standings with little hope of an upward path. That’s a tough fit to consider for the now 30-year-old Mrazek, who most recently struggled behind the ever-mercurial Toronto Maple Leafs.

Mrazek’s game at its best is one characterized by quick, nimble skatework and a willingness to put in the extra legwork to get to those hard-to-reach shots. But when he struggles, Mrazek’s speed can give him an almost sloppy appearance; a lack of crisp positioning leaves leaky gaps in his pads and around his hands that allows pucks to sneak by even when he gets himself into what seems like the perfect position on time. And while he showcased his best work in Carolina, staying on his toes and anticipating defensive breakdowns in time to save the day for the Hurricanes more often than not, he offered Toronto some of his most inconsistent performances in recent memory. Now, he’ll be expected to serve as a stopgap for the clearly-rebuilding Blackhawks; he’s at a point in his career where it’s nearly impossible to see him outlasting their tank efforts. The bright side for him, though, is that it’s hard to see Chicago having much use for him if he does right the ship – and there are a handful of contending teams who don’t have a lot of security in net for the coming year. So, if he sheds the inconsistencies and tightens up the gaps in his pads to kick off the 2022-23 campaign, he could buy himself a one-way ticket to fill a need in net for a playoff franchise midway through the year. The only real question mark? His health – given his propensity for injuries and the lack of much in the way of relief waiting in the wings, it’s a little unsettling trying to predict just what Chicago is going to roll out in net over the course of the year. Ultimately, though, Mrazek is a much better bet for game starts than his tandem partner Alex Stalock – so when it comes to workload, he should at the very least get himself a nice amount of volume.

Projected starts: 60-65

Alex Stalock

If you find yourself surprised that Alex Stalock is still in the NHL for the upcoming season, you aren’t alone – but he’s in for a doozy of a season, set to play a role in Chicago similar to the one Craig Anderson is playing in Buffalo. Fresh off the celebration of his 35th birthday, Stalock arrives in Chicago with just one NHL game to his name in the last two seasons combined.

The Blackhawks are shamelessly throwing their season to the wolves in hopes of building back up from the bottom in the next few seasons, so it’s unlikely they’re worried about Stalock being rusty and costing them wins. But on the bright side, despondent Chicago fans dreading the upcoming season should at the very least enjoy what Stalock has to offer from an entertainment perspective this year – and he’s a genuinely respected presence in the locker room, so there’s little worry that he’ll drag the team down from a morale perspective. He’s one of the most fun goaltenders the modern game has to offer, to boot; with a passion for cutting down angles and challenging shooters, Stalock is practically a living meme. He doesn’t exactly thrive in any one area of his game, but a remarkable level of self-confidence and a near-bottomless bag of tricks he’s willing to pull from leave Stalock operating from a position of strength as he continually keeps shooters guessing. As far as stopgaps go for a club looking to overhaul their lineup, there are few that offer the same entertainment value and feel-good vibes that Stalock does – even if he may not have the kinds of numbers most would associate with free agent acquisitions. And for a team that seems determined to lose a lot, he’s a reasonable bet not to break the tank.

Projected starts: 30-35

Pittsburgh Penguins 2019-20 Prospect Review: Top 20

Sat, 14 Sep 2019 13:03:53 +0000

The worst systems in the game usually are handicapped by a combination of a shortage of picks and a pronounced shortage of high end picks. Those teams are often perennial contenders and had traded those picks – and sometimes players who still retain the sheen of youthful promise – in exchange for players that are more able to assist in the present need to fortify a contender. In other words, they abide by the maxim that a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.

The Penguins most definitely meet both problems head on. The last time they had their full complement of seven picks was back in 2012. In the seven ensuing drafts, they have only made a pick on day one twice. One of those first rounders was made just this year, as the Penguins added a big-bodied, mature power winger in Samuel Poulin. The other first round pick Pittsburgh made in that span, Kasperi Kapanen, selected with the 22^nd pick in 2014, was traded to Toronto in the Phil Kessel trade, before he ever suited up in Pittsburgh.

Outside of those two first rounders, likely the most skilled player selected by Pittsburgh in the past seven drafts was the Dutch Dangler, Daniel Sprong. The skilled winger did play in 42 NHL games for the Penguins, before he, too, was sent away, shipped to Anaheim in a one for one deal for blueliner Marcus Pettersson. In fairness to GM Jim Rutherford and company, Sprong wasn’t traded so much for a veteran, as Pettersson was also very young, as much as they deemed Pettersson to be a better fit on the main squad than Sprong. Pettersson actually equaled Sprong’s rest of season point totals, albeit in ten additional games. For a defenseman deemed a stay-at-home type though, neither the Penguins not their supporters should be dismayed by the sell off of one of their top young talents.

Other Penguins’ draft picks of recent vintage who have played at least 100 NHL games, but are long out of the Pittsburgh system include Derrick Pouliot, and Stanley Cup champ Oscar Sundqvist. On the other hand, in the past seven drafts, the only current NHL Penguins are Jake Guentzel and Dominik Simon. Even on a winning team, you would expect a better hit rate than that.

One other way that the Penguins may be hampering their draft and development efforts is by how limited their selection pool is. The draft (and sign) extensively from the QMJHL, the WHL, the college bound ranks and Finland, but ignore Russia – the only player drafted out of Russia since the selection of Malkin was netminder Alexander Pechursky in 2008, and the OHL – only two Ontario based picks in the last seven years, neither of whom was ever offered an ELC.

For as heavily as the Penguins supplement their prospect base with undrafted free agents, four of whom grace the list below, there is a distinct lack of upside in any of them, and in fact, in the system as a whole. Even if the team hopes to remain a top competitor in perpetuity, they will need to change their approach to player acquisition to continue to surround Crosby and Malkin with suitable teammates.

-Ryan Wagman

CRANBERRY, PA - JUNE 28: Pittsburgh Penguins Prospect Forward Samuel Poulin (18) during the Pittsburgh Penguins Development Camp 3-on-3 Tournament on June 28, 2019 at the UPMC Lemieux Sports Complex in Cranberry, PA. (Photo by Shelley Lipton/Icon Sportswire)

1 Samuel Poulin, RW (21^st overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) One of the more complete players in the draft this past June, and one of the more pro-ready players, Poulin has many qualities NHL coaches will love right out of the box. Poulin is the son of former NHLer Patrick, and his hockey sense proves that. His ability to shoot or pass with equal aplomb and his abilities to use his teammates are all at a high level. His defensive play on the backcheck and in transition is noteworthy. His skating is strong, especially his balance, as he can anchor himself along the wall under pressure. He plays a two-way game, does not skip on the details and can carry a team on his back, like his Sherbrooke team in the playoffs with 14 points in 10 games. Poulin will be a strong winger who can play all situations and be a reliable two-way threat for a long time. - MS

2 Calen Addison, D (53^rd overall, 2018. Last Year: 2) Addison is a dynamic offensive weapon from the back end. He has a great ability to generate offense and push the pace of play with his skating and knack for jumping into the rush. Back-to-back 65 point seasons have shown that he has the puck skills and vision to make key offensive plays. Defensively he gets in trouble once the puck is in his own zone. He rarely kills penalties, or is on for key defensive zone draws, he can be physically overmatched and struggles to protect the front of the net or break up the cycle game. If the Penguins are patient with him he could develop like Tory Krug, a powerplay specialist and on a 3rd pairing at even strength until he is better prepared to handle tougher assignments. - VG

3 Pierre-Olivier Joseph, D (23^rd overall, 2017 [Arizona]. Last Year: 4 [Arizona]) The former Charlottetown Islanders captain has seen his game grow leaps and bounds since he joined the QMJHL in 2015-16. Joseph’s best two assets are his work ethic and his hockey sense. He rarely makes a bad decision and, most importantly, knows his limitations. He has blossomed into a leader by both his words and his example, and his effort is contagious for other players. He is slight for the pro game at 168 pounds, but he is as adept at defending positionally as he is physically, and has figured out how to read many schemes with the puck to best attack from the back end. He is poised and strong at moving the puck and patient to allow the defense to open up to his benefit. While he may not have any truly elite traits, he does not have many weaknesses. He is a future solid, dependable, middle-pair blueliner. - MS

4 Filip Hallander, C (58^th overall, 2018. Last Year: 3) Hallander is starting to look like a good second round pick, not Jake Guentzel-in-the-third good, but good. The 18 year-old played his first season in the SHL and was one of the best forwards on his team. He is a smart power forward with nice hands and skills. He works hard in all three zones and reads a forecheck very well. When he creates scoring chances, he often does so through winning the puck over for his team and going hard to the net. The knock on him so far is that he hasn’t got any tools that are elite other than his compete level and forechecking. The skating, shot, and puck skills are slightly above average, but non are elite. As a future NHLer he isn’t an elite producer, but he can play and contribute in various roles. He is strong on the PK and around the net on a power play. Next season he will play in SHL again. - JH

5 Nathan Legare, RW (74^th overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) Légaré has the shot to become a sniper at the NHL level. 45 goals as a draft-eligible player in any league is impressive, and the fact that his goal totals jumped from 10 to 45 made it even more impressive. He was a triggerman on a strong Baie-Comeau powerplay and can hammer a one-timer swiftly to the net. Having said that, many of his goals are scored in front of the net off rebounds or small set-ups, using his superior size and strength at the QMJHL level. His hockey sense and physicality is strong, but his skating holds him back. He knows where to go, but often gets there late, and is more effective in zone set-plays rather than off the rush. His agility, edgework and acceleration all need work. For this reason, it is hard to project his impact going forward, but his shot is impossible to deny. - MS

6 Jordy Bellerive, C (Undrafted free agent, signed Sep. 16, 2017. Last Year: 11) Bellerive is a player who can play the game in any style. He is happy to drive the net and work hard to create his offense but he has a shot that can beat goalies cleanly from distance. He works his tail off in both zones and often generates additional chances from chasing down the play. He makes good passes both in transition and below the dots. He camps out around the net and will take a beating to make a play. He has good puck skills in tight where he makes subtle plays that catch defenses off-guard. He may never reach beyond a third line player at the pro level but his effort is consistent enough that he could excel in that role. - VG

7 Emil Larmi, G (Undrafted free agent, signed Jun. 2, 2019. Last Year: IE) Larmi put together three strong seasons for HPK in the Liiga including a championship win in 2019 before signing an entry-level contract with the Penguins. He is a competitive goalie with great reflexes and the ability to make highly athletic saves. He plays an aggressive and intense style in net. He likes to challenge shooters to cut down angles and he is very effective in doing so. He is mentally strong, remains unrattled even when allowing a soft goal and can bounce back quickly. Larmi's positioning can be a slight issue at times, but his athleticism and quickness help him quite a bit on those occasions. It remains to be seen how he adapts to the North American game, but the 1996 born netminder has definitely shown NHL potential. -MB

8 Kasper Bjorkqvist, RW (61^st overall, 2016. Last Year: 6) While Bjorkqvist has progressed nicely in his three years in North America, increasing his point totals from 9 to 23 to 30 with NCAA Providence, the versatile Finnish winger enters the pro ranks with rawness and inconsistency still running through his game. He uses his solid size to play near the opposing crease and has a plan for the puck when he gets it, resulting in quick touches and quickly released shots. At his best, he has a nice shot an can play or pass the puck well, but he can go for prolonged stretches at less than his best, effectively becoming a non-factor in the play. He is also not as aggressive as his strength would allow. He will need some time to continue developing in the AHL, but if he can play a more steady game, he could find a home as a bottom six winger in the NHL within two years. - RW

9 Judd Caulfield, RW (145^th overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) The fact that their fifth round pick from the most recent draft ranks ninth in this system – and no one has claimed him to a steal, either on draft day or in the weeks since – is another point of concern for the Pittsburgh system. Caulfield is a heart and soul player, a big winger with good speed and surprisingly deft hands, although lacking in the overall game or creativity to turn those hands into weapons with any frequency. He has a heavy side and can be a penalty kill asset, but is definitely more of a supporting piece than the type who can drive a line or force an opposing team to game plan around him. Heading to play for his home town University of North Dakota, he has a ways to go to reach his third line upside. - RW

10 Justin Almeida, C/LW (129^th overall, 2018. Last Year: 12) Almeida is an undersized forward with excellent playmaking skills. He is a pass first player that can hold onto the puck for an extra second, creating spacing for his teammates and his passes. His skating is OK, but for a smaller guy you would like him to have better breakaway speed. Where his speed is noticeable is in how quickly he can process what to do with the puck. His shot is very accurate even though it lacks in power. He often seems like he will have a long, successful offensive career at the AHL level, and in the right situation could find top six minutes in the NHL one day. - VG

11 Anthony Angello, C (145^th overall, 2014. Last Year: 4) In his first professional season, Angello fared well applying his NCAA experience to the AHL. He is a massive forward who plays an equally strong and physical game. By managing 29 points last season, he proved that he was a good fit for Wilkes-Barre and also ensured he would not be looked over in the Penguins ranks. Angello has the hands to match his size which makes him a difficult opponent, however he would be even more threatening if he were that much faster. His general speed is not what is hurting his chances but rather his reaction time and the missing jump to his game. Saying that his large frame is the cause for the missing spark in his stride is not good enough when a player comparable in size such as Colton Parayko seems to have little problem with speed. Angello will have to push harder and find a higher gear if he wants a chance at cracking the bottom six. - SC

12 Teddy Blugers, C (52^nd overall, 2012. Last Year: 7) Blugers is set to start his next professional season up with the Pittsburgh Penguins which is well deserved. He is a naturally skilled forward whose game is nothing special but fast paced and efficient enough to get the job done. His shot and quick release make him especially deadly when given the puck in a scoring position as he can adapt quickly to get quality scoring chances. Blugers needs to make sure to keep his feet moving in the corners and not rely so much on teammates to do his dirty work below the goal line. If he can up the pace of his aggressive play in all areas of the ice to match the NHL pace then he will stand a better chance at earning a bottom six roll with the Penguins next season and into the future. - SC

13 Jan Drozg, LW/RW (152^nd overall, 2017. Last Year: 15) Drozg is more ready-now than most on this list in terms of joining the pro ranks. He isn’t that physical but he has great balance and is not afraid to carry the puck into danger zones and take abuse. He can be a buzz saw in pursuit of the puck, and can pass quickly and accurately, including cross-zone and stretch passing. His playmaking skills are very strong, as is his hockey sense offensively. His defensive game is adequate, and his skating is fine, but both will need to improve to have an effect at the NHL level. Drozg’s play elevates with the stature of the game, and he will be a feature for Team Slovenia as long as he wants to be, but his deficiencies will need to improve to become a secondary scoring option at the NHL level. - MS

14 Niclas Almari, D (151^st overall, 2016. Last Year: 9) Almari was part of the gold-winning HPK team in the Liiga and showed stable improvement in many aspects of the game this past season. The Penguins fifth round pick is mobile and skates well backwards. He can move the puck well and start offensive transitions with long-range passes. He has good offensive vision and puck skills. That all said, there are some question marks around his game. In juniors, Almari displayed decent offensive abilities and potential but he hasn't been able to make a similar impact at the pro level. He plays a solid, yet unspectacular game at both ends of the ice, without much flash or physicality. He could end up being a third-pairing NHL defenseman at best, unless he makes major strides in his game in the coming years. - MB

15 Sam Miletic, LW/C (Undrafted free agent, signed Sep. 25, 2017. Last Year: 10) Miletic had a good transition into the AHL with 35 points in 49 games and only 14 penalty minutes. He is a good offensive player whose speed helps him stand out from other players. His strong skating helps propel him to the net and with his strength he drives the net with ease and can easily lead a breakout. Whereas he was able to regroup with time and space to quarterback breakouts at the major junior level, at the professional level breakout execution time is a lot more limited, leading to more turnovers, and he will need to adapt to the fast pace better in order to not fall behind the play. Miletic will most likely settle into a top six spot next season with Wilkes-Barre and that should improve his play enough to get to a similar role with the Pens down the line. - SC

16 Adam Johnson, LW (Undrafted free agent, signed Jul. 6, 2017. Last Year: 20) Johnson is a nifty offensive player with slick hands and nasty pickpocketing ability. He is skilled and can adapt to playing with various lines. As his scoring pedigree in both the NCAA and USHL show, his ability to read the play and alternate between being the shooter or the playmaker has improved greatly. The only somewhat underdeveloped part of his game is his two-way play and defensive end coverage. In the meantime, Johnson will have to touch up his play in the defensive end and work on his awareness in his own zone. He has what it takes to make the NHL squad and to play at the highest level but he may not yet be ready for a permanent spot in the bottom six. The Penguins have tough competition for their forward roster and he will have to continue to put up points and work hard to cement his spot. - SC

17 Sam Lafferty, C (113^th overall, 2014. Last Year: Not ranked) Lafferty is an enjoyable player to watch, especially as he never takes a shift off and wins a fair percentage of the draws he takes. Last season with Wilkes-Barre he did well putting up 49 points in 70 games and stepping up to stand out amongst a rather average team. He is a good playmaker and a good passer, and his creativity will certainly be a contributing factor to his success at a higher level. Although Lafferty is a great passer he could do well at shooting more and being a little more selfish with the puck to prove himself as an even greater offensive threat. He has a lot of potential at clocking a bottom six spot in the NHL and even growing from there, as his work ethic and his outside the box way of thinking will certainly get him to the next level. - SC

18 Santeri Airola, D (211^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) Airola had an impressive season for SaiPa U20 and showed promise with the U19 national team as well. The smallish right0-shot defenseman is offensively gifted and skates very well. He can travel with the puck through the neutral zone as his hands enable him to keep up with his quick feet. He is agile, shifty on his skates, and can accelerate quickly from a standstill. Airola has many attributes that make him a good power play quarterback for a junior player: poise, mobility, and distribution skills. He is not afraid to take responsibility on the ice either. He needs to work on his defensive game, particularly to become more assertive in his own zone and improve his angling. He is a late bloomer whose development is trending upwards, yet he is still, at this point, a long shot to make it to the NHL. - MB

19 John Marino, D (154^th overall, 2015 [Edmonton]. Last Year: 10 [Edmonton]) Four years after the Edmonton Oilers took Marino in the sixth round, Pittsburgh sent a future sixth rounder to Central Alberta for his rights, and immediately signed him to an ELC. While Marino was a two way threat in his junior level days, he has evolved into more of an own-zone specialist over three years at Harvard. He has decent size, but is rather strong and rangy and plays a physical game. He reads the play well and plays instinctively. He lacks the offensive elements to his game to profile as more than a third pairing defender who could get some time on the PK, but that’s pretty good value for the sixth round. - RW

20 Ryan Jones, D (121^st overall, 2016. Last Year: 18) Drafted in his third year of draft eligibility, Jones had parlayed a strong second season with the Lincoln Stars of the USHL to a spot on the NHL radar. While he hasn’t been that bad with Nebraska-Omaha over three seasons, he is strongly suggesting that his draft year performance was more a matter of an older player beating up on younger kids than a true breakthrough. He is a tough blueliner with some capability of nullifying opponents in his own zone, but his offensive contributions are somewhat meagre, leaving his upside as a sixth or seventh defender at the highest level. Barring a last minute change of heart by Pittsburgh, he will be returning to Omaha for his senior season, and his last chance of earning an NHL contract. - RW