Samuel Girard – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Major injuries at the Olympics, including Sidney Crosby, Mikko Rantanen, and Kevin Fiala, plus young players like Matt Savoie and Jimmy Snuggerud getting bigger opportunities and so much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 28 Feb 2026 14:27:31 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, some major injuries at the Olympics, including Sidney Crosby, Mikko Rantanen, and Kevin Fiala, plus young players like Matt Savoie and Jimmy Snuggerud getting bigger opportunities and so much more!

#1 Not only did Canada lose in overtime of the Gold Medal Game at the Milano Cortina Winter Olympics, but they lost captain Sidney Crosby to a lower-body injury against Czechia in the quarterfinals. The Pittsburgh Penguins captain suffered an apparent knee injury after getting hit by Radko Gudas and it is expected to keep him out of the lineup for another four weeks. The Penguins have responded to the loss of their captain by shifting veteran Rickard Rakell to centre, with rookie Avery Hayes taking left wing, on Pittsburgh’s top line. Hayes, 23, had 30 points (19 G, 11 A) in 36 AHL games and scored a pair of goals in his NHL debut at Buffalo on February 5.

#2 The Dallas Stars lost their leading scorer Mikko Rantanen to a lower-body injury suffered at the Olympics. Rantanen is considered week-to-week, with head coach Glen Gulutzan saying that he will be back before the end of the season, which is not the most encouraging timeline for fantasy managers! With Rantanen out, consider Mavrik Bourque, who has been getting more ice time in Dallas and has produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past nine games. He’s on the Stars’ top line with Wyatt Johnston and Jason Robertson, so this is a prime opportunity for Bourque to break out as an offensive performer in the NHL.

#3 One of the more devastating injuries at the Olympics was suffered by Swiss winger Kevin Fiala, who broke his leg after a hit from Tom Wilson. Fiala is second on the Kings with 40 points and with the trade to acquire Artemi Panarin, the Kings had reason to hope that they could be poised to make a push for the playoffs after the Olympics. They have since lost their first two games out of the break and, with Fiala out, Corey Perry is playing in the Kings’ top six as well as on PP1. Perry has zero points in his past five games, but did have 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in the 12 previous games.

#4 An upper-body injury suffered in the opening game at the Olympics has landed Winnipeg Jets defenceman Josh Morrissey on the injured list. With Neal Pionk and Colin Miller also out, the Jets are missing some puck movers on the back end, so Logan Stanley is getting first crack at quarterbacking the power play, though the Jets also have Ville Heinola available. He had 21 points (3 G, 18 A) in 40 AHL games and while he has struggled to earn a regular NHL role, he has the mobility and puck skills to play an offensive role on the blueline.

#5 Staying in Winnipeg, Jets winger Nino Niederreiter is out week-to-week with an undisclosed injury that he suffered at the Olympics. The veteran winger’s production is down this season, as he has 19 points (8 G, 11 A) in 55 games, and the tough thing for the Jets is that they don’t have great options to bolster the third line in his absence. Gustav Nyquist has zero goals and nine assists in 36 games. Vladislav Namestnikov has 13 points (7 G, 6 A) in 56 games, and Jonathan Toews has 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 57 games, so there is not a lot of reason for optimism beyond their top scorers.

#6 With Jiri Kulich and Jordan Greenway already out of the lineup, the Buffalo Sabres are also missing winger Zach Benson, who suffered an upper-body injury before the Olympic break. Benson had nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 19 shots on goal in his last 13 games before getting hurt and the 20-year-old has been a solid complementary winger with 26 points (7 G, 19 A) in 42 games. If looking for potentially undervalued players in Buffalo, consider Peyton Krebs, who has moved to left wing on the top line and has contributed 11 points (5 G, 6 A) in his past 12 games, though he has a total of 11 shots on goal in those 12 games, which is rather low when it comes to offensive sustainability.

#7 The Pittsburgh Penguins acquired defenceman Sam Girard from the Colorado Avalanche in a trade for veteran Brett Kulak. Girard is undersized but is a quality puck mover and should be a good addition for a Penguins team that has elder statesmen Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang leading their blueline. The deal does look like a downgrade for Colorado, even if Kulak was better for the Penguins than he was in Edmonton to start the season. From the Avalanche’s perspective, Kulak can fill a third-pair role at a lower cost, giving Colorado more flexibility when it comes to possible moves at next week’s trade deadline.

#8 Edmonton Oilers rookie winger Matt Savoie came out of the Olympic break skating on left wing with Leon Draisaitl at centre and Jack Roslovic on the right side, and Savoie put up five points (1 G, 4 A) with four shots on goal in the first two games. Savoie may not be a driver of results at this stage of his career, so when he does get a prime opportunity like this, it bears watching.

#9 St. Louis Blues rookie winger Jimmy Snuggerud went into the Olympic break on a high, with nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 13 shots on goal in six games, and while he was held off the scoresheet in his first game back, Snuggerud is likely to get plenty of reps down the stretch for a Blues team that is a long way from playoff contention. With Robert Thomas out of the lineup, Snuggerud has been on a line with Dalibor Dvorsky, the rookie who was thriving in a bigger role with Slovakia in the Olympics, scoring six points (3 G, 3 A) in six games. Dvorsky has one assist with four shots on goal in his past five NHL games, but he should have ample opportunity to play late in the season. Maybe he’s not offering great value now but could very well handle a bigger role as the season winds down.

#10 With Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul injured, the Tampa Bay Lightning have made some adjustments to their forward lines. Jake Guentzel has shifted to centre and Gage Goncalves has been lifted to play left wing on the top line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. Goncalves contributed three points (1 G, 2 A) against Toronto on Wednesday, and anyone playing on that line would have fantasy appeal, but Goncalves is probably a short-term fix who will lose his prime spot when Cirelli and Paul return to action.

#11 After missing time in December with a lower-body injury, Seattle Kraken winger Jared McCann returned to action and has been in fine form ever since, producing 23 points (11 G, 12 A) and 56 shots on goal in his past 23 games. He didn’t record a point in the first two games coming out of the break, but McCann is as dangerous offensively as anyone on the Kraken roster, skating on the top line with Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle in addition to getting first unit power play time.

#12 One of the players who gives the Penguins hope to survive Crosby’s absence is that rookie Ben Kindel continues to get better and in his past seven games, he has seven points (6 G, 1 A) and 18 shots on goal. He is centering the third line right now but has towering wingers Anthony Mantha and Justin Brazeau on his flanks and those guys have been productive, ranking second and fourth, respectively, in goals for the Penguins this season.

#13 Over the course of his career, Vegas Golden Knights winger Ivan Barbashev has had some ups and downs in his career, but when he heats up, he can be a serious contributor. In his past nine games, he has nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 17 shots on goal while playing nearly 18 minutes per game. His strength is playing a solid physical game, but he can do it alongside skilled linemates and that’s what is happening in Vegas, where he is skating on the top line with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, and when Barbashev is scoring like this, he is much more appealing for fantasy managers.

#14 As the Buffalo Sabres have been climbing the standings across the past few months, it’s not only the top guys getting the job done. Consider right winger Jack Quinn, who has 15 points (5 G, 10 A) and 42 shots on goal in his past 16 games. He may not have the highest ceiling, but his line with Ryan McLeod and Jason Zucker is outscoring opponents 17-11 during five-on-five play.

#15 Veteran St. Louis Blues defenceman Justin Faulk continues to deliver strong fantasy results even on a Blues squad that is having a tough season. Faulk has nine assists with 16 shots on goal in his past seven games. It’s noteworthy that Faulk isn’t hitting as much as he had in previous seasons, with 44 hits in 58 games, but the points and shot rate for a guy who is quarterbacking the top power play are both valuable for fantasy managers.

#16 At the Winter Olympics, plenty of top players delivered expected production, but some players also stepped up in bigger roles for their home nations. One example is New Jersey Devils winger Timo Meier, who has managed a meagre four points (3 G, 1 A) despite recording 65 shots on goal in his past 18 games for the Devils. Playing for Switzerland in the Olympics, though, Meier had seven points (3 G, 4 A) in five games and played the physically punishing style that he does when he’s at his best. On the Devils, Meier is skating on a line with Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer

#17 Nashville Predators centre Erik Haula may be on the trade block as the deadline approaches and he’s not hurting his value with his recent play. Haula is riding a five-game point streak in the NHL, scoring a goal and four assists in those games and had six points (3 G, 3 A) in six games for Finland at the Olympics. Another Finland forward, who had strong showing on the way to the bronze medal, was Kaapo Kakko, who had five points (3 G, 2 A) in six games and he has been playing well, when healthy, for Seattle. In his past 27 games, Kakko has 19 points (6 G, 13 A) and 38 shots on goal.

#18 It’s a difficult time for fantasy hockey managers if they still need a goaltending answer, but there are a few who are likely to see significant playing time down the stretch and are still available in a good percentage of leagues. The Vancouver Canucks are not likely to win games, because they haven’t been winning this season anyway, but rookie goalie Nikita Tolopilo is showing that he is ready for this league. He has a .908 save percentage in 10 games for the Canucks and with Thatcher Demko out for the rest of the season, Tolopilo should see lots of time in the Canucks’ crease. Former Canucks – and current Penguins – goaltender Arturs Silovs is sharing time with Stuart Skinner, but in his past eight starts, Silovs has a .928 save percentage, which is the level of play that will force his way into more playing time.

#19 This season has been difficult for the Florida Panthers, and the playoffs may not be in the cards for them, but there could be some players that have surprising value late in the season. Evan Rodrigues is centering the Panthers’ top line, between Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Reinhart, and in his past seven games, he has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 28 shots on goal while averaging 19:48 of ice time per game. If he keeps playing that much, with high quality linemates, Rodrigues could deliver fantasy value.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Veterans who are elevating their play, including Zach Hyman, Steven Stamkos, Ryan O’Reilly, Ryan Hartman, Claude Giroux, David Perron, and so much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 27 Dec 2025 16:22:00 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, veterans who are elevating their play, including Zach Hyman, Steven Stamkos, Ryan O’Reilly, Ryan Hartman, Claude Giroux, David Perron, and so much more!

#1 Edmonton Oilers winger Zach Hyman was not ready to start the season, as he recovered from wrist surgery, so he didn’t get into the lineup until mid-November and even then it took him some time to get up to speed. It does appear that he’s starting to cook. In his past 11 games, Hyman has 15 points (9 G, 6 A) and 34 shots on goal. He’s getting first unit power play time and skating on the Oilers’ top line with Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, so Hyman should be in a prime position for the rest of the season.

#2 In his first 29 games this season, Nashville Predators right winger Steven Stamkos had 11 points (8 G, 3 A) and when that happens to a player in his mid-30s, it can look like the end is near. He has turned back the clock recently, however, putting up 11 points (7 G, 4 A) with 29 shots on goal in his past seven games. He’s skating on a veteran line with Ryan O’Reilly and Filip Forsberg and the key is that Stamkos is generating shots on goal. In his first 29 games, he had just 58 shots on goal, so to go from two shots per game to more than four shots per game in this recent uptick in his performance shows that he can still be a legitimate offensive threat.

#3 Ryan O’Reilly has been a huge part of the Predators’ resurgence. In the past 14 games, the Preds are 10-4 and O’Reilly has 19 points (5 G, 14 A) in those 14 games. He has just 23 shots on goal, and a low shot rate is a concern for offensive sustainability, but O’Reilly is a consistent play driver year after year and that has continued this season in Nashville, with a 55.8 CF%, which would represent the best Corsi percentage of his career.

#4 Although he moves around the Minnesota Wild lineup quite a bit, there is usually reason to like when Ryan Hartman gets his turn playing on the top line. With Marco Rossi dealt to Vancouver in the Quinn Hughes trade, Hartman has moved in between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, with Hartman putting up seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past seven games, after he had eight points (4 G, 4 A) through his first 29 games this season.

#5 The Ottawa Senators are getting quality production from veteran wingers Claude Giroux and David Perron. Giroux has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 11 shots on goal in his past seven games while Perron has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. They are getting second unit power play time and, for a pair of 37-year-olds, they are still providing reliable secondary scoring for the Sens. As with many of the veterans in this week’s article, they are not producing at the level of their best career performance but in their mid-30s that’s not a reasonable expectation and it is part of the reason that these players are more widely available.

#6 When he was acquired by the Ottawa Senators from the San Jose Sharks last season, Fabian Zetterlund responded with a meagre five points (3 G, 2 A) and 40 shots on goal in 20 games. He followed that up by starting this season with four points (1 G, 3 A) and 28 shots on goal in his first 20 games, but he has turned the corner and is now a solid offensive contributor on a talented Senators squad. In his past 16 games, Zetterlund has 12 points (8 G, 4 A) and 38 shots on goal, and appears to have secured a regular spot on the top line alongside Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk.

#7 With injuries decimating the Tampa Bay Lightning blueline, Darren Raddysh has been the primary beneficiary from an offensive standpoint, as he is quarterbacking the top power play unit and producing at an elite level. His partner, J.J. Moser, has been making inroads recently, with five points and 16 shots on goal while averaging 23:32 of ice time in his past six games. Moser only had seven points (1 G, 6 A) and 34 shots on goal in his previous 28 games, but he does seem equipped to provide more offense than that.

#8 Although he is getting surpassed by his younger teammates in San Jose, Sharks right winger Tyler Toffoli has put up 13 points (5 G, 8 A) and 38 shots on goal in his past 13 games, recording two four-point games in the process. Toffoli is skating on San Jose’s second line, alongside William Eklund and Alexander Wennberg, while also getting time with the top power play unit.

#9 At this stage of his career, 40-year-old Colorado Avalanche defenceman Brent Burns is not the focal point for offense on the blueline, but he hasn’t abandoned those parts of his game, either. In his past 12 games, he has delivered eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 26 shots on goal, while averaging 19:44 of ice time per game. Only one of Burns’ 19 points this season have come on the power play, so there is a limit to his offensive contribution, but he remains a contributor for an Avalanche team that is steamrolling the rest of the league.

#10 Staying on the Colorado blueline, Samuel Girard has suddenly started to provide offense. In his past six games, Girard has six points (2 G, 4 A) and eight shots on goal, but he had just two assists in the 15 games that he played before that. Like Burns, Girard is not getting power play time in Colorado, but the Avs are so good that it could be worth considering these guys in deeper leagues.

#11 Winnipeg Jets forward Morgan Barron has never scored more than 21 points in an NHL season, but that could change this season. He has found a role on Winnipeg’s third line, alongside Adam Lowry and Alex Iafallo, and in his past six games, Barron has five points (4 G, 1 A) and a dozen shots on goal. He is up to 12 points (7 G, 5 A) in 29 games this season, so he has a real chance to set a career high in point production. For fantasy managers, his appeal is mostly in very deep leagues, though his offensive surge coupled with 67 hits in 29 games does give him some added fantasy value.

#12 It seems as though Oliver Bjorkstrand has been underutilized in Tampa Bay, as he is playing just 14:23 per game, which would be his lowest average time on ice since 2018-2019. However, in his past seven games, Bjorkstrand does have seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 12 shots on goal while playing 15:32 per game. He is currently on the Lightning’s second line, with Nick Paul and Jake Guentzel.

#13 Buffalo Sabres left winger Zach Benson was having a hard time finding the back of the net, going without a goal in his first 17 games of this season, but he has started to put it together recently. In his past six games, Benson has five points (3 g, 2 A) and 12 shots on goal, As the Sabres are making a concerted effort to turn their season around, Benson is getting first unit power play time while skating on a line with Ryan McLeod and Jack Quinn at even strength.

#14 After a slow start to the season that saw him demoted to the fourth line, Carolina Hurricanes left winger Andrei Svechnikov does seem to be back on track. In his past nine games, Svechnikov has 10 points (2 G, 8 A) and 20 shots on goal. He’s now skating on a line with Jordan Staal and Jackson Blake, which is more of a two-way line than usual, but Svechnikov is delivering results.

#15 The Columbus Blue Jackets acquired left winger Mason Marchment from the Seattle Kraken after the consensus was that Marchment’s time in Seattle was just not a good fit. After he had 13 points (4 G, 9 A) with 46 shots on goal in 29 games, which was not the kind of production that he was providing in his previous seasons with Dallas. Early returns in Columbus are more promising, as he has been playing with Adam Fantilli and Kirill Marchenko and Marchment has three goals and seven shots on goal in his first two games with Columbus. He is still more of a deep league option for fantasy managers, but he has a chance to provide value.

#16 The Buffalo Sabres are turning around their season and goaltender Alex Lyon is putting up great results. He has won each of his past six starts, posting a .922 save percentage. When the Sabres’ season looked like it was getting away from them, it was looking more likely that Lyon or Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen could get traded, but now that the Sabres have moved to within two points of a Wild Card playoff spot, they are more likely to stick with their tandem.

#17 While the Seattle Kraken are battling to stay in the playoff hunt, currently three points back of the second Wild Card spot, they are getting quality play from goaltender Joey Daccord. In his past five starts, Daccord has won three while posting a .934 save percentage. On the season, Daccord has 4.14 Goals Saved Above Expected, which is the kind of goaltending that can keep a team in the playoff race and it might make him a viable fantasy option.

#18 When looking for players who might be ready to bust out offensively, consider those that have not been living up to their underlying numbers. Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog, for example, has just one goal in 11 games this month, despite having 5.70 individual expected goals in all situations. Some other players whose goal numbers have been below expected goals in December: William Eklund (-4.25), Anthony Cirelli (-4.04), Chris Kreider (-3.88), John Tavares (-3.61), Rickard Rakell (-3.36), Logan Stankoven (-3.21), Jake DeBrusk (-3.20), Nico Hischier (-3.12), Tom Wilson (-3.11), and Jake Guentzel (-2.83).

#19 With Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar injured, the Chicago Blackhawks have veterans Jason Dickinson and Ryan Donato holding down their top two centre spots. Donato played a season-high 21:35 in the last game before the break and does have a goal and an assist in his past two games, so he may have some short-term appeal while the Blackhawks are in the tough situation of missing their top two centres.

#20 Newly acquired Edmonton Oilers goaltender Tristan Jarry suffered a lower-body injury that should keep him out for a couple of weeks and that has opened the door for Connor Ingram, who has won his first couple of starts with Edmonton, stopping 92.0 percent of the shots that he faced in the first two games. He had a .856 save percentage in 11 AHL appearances, so it’s not like he was forcing his way back into the NHL with his play, but the Oilers are playing better and if it means that Ingram can get comfortable in the NHL again, he could at least have short term appeal for fantasy managers.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – COLORADO AVALANCHE – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Sun, 21 Sep 2025 16:04:41 +0000

ST. LOUIS, MO -APRIL 05: Colorado Avalanche goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood (39) as seen before the start of the second period during a NHL game between the Colorado Avalanche and the St. Louis Blues on April 05, 2025, at Enterprise Center, St. Louis MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire)

Although Colorado had yet another outstanding season, the result of losing Game 7 to the Dallas Stars in the first round left a bitter taste in their mouths. Seeing former teammate Mikko Rantanen succeed against them and move on in the playoffs just weeks after having captain Gabriel Landeskog return to action after nearly two years made for a roller coaster of emotion. Despite all the ups and downs throughout the season, Colorado finished with 102 points and finished in third place in the Central Division. They were the third best team in the league in CorsiFor percentage (54.1) and were eighth in expected goals for percentage (52.4) just behind Winnipeg (52.44). A midseason trade for goalie Mackenzie Blackwood turned things around quickly for them when it was apparent Alexandar Georgiev wasn’t going to be able to turn his own game around. Now with their roster seemingly set, they’ll look to avoid a slow start that had them chasing the rest of the division down all season.

What’s Changed?

Trade deadline acquisition Brock Nelson re-signed for three years, $22.5 million. Adding Nelson worked well for them late in the year and he was eager to stay in Denver. The Avalanche made some changes to help loosen their cap constraints by sending Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood to Colorado for prospect Gavin Brindley and a pair of draft picks. That added flexibility let them sign Brent Burns on a one-year, $1 million deal, re-signed Josh Manson for two years, $7.9 million and Joel Kirivanta for one year, $1.25 million. They also added scoring winger Victor Olofsson from Vegas as a free agent for one year, $1.57 million. All of those players are specialists at what they do and with their key players already set, this is how a team with eyes on the Stanley Cup handles the roster.

What Would Success Look Like?

It was three years ago that the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup and they’ve had their gaze set on winning it again ever since. Instead, they’ve lost in the first round twice and the second round once and that’s what must change. After bowing out to Dallas this year, it brought about questions as to whether they needed to change coach Jared Bednar. These are like first-world problems for contending teams, but with the overall talent level the Avalanche has with Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Landeskog, Devon Toews and Martin Necas, they can win the Stanley Cup. The key to doing that will be winning the Central Division, however, and staying out of a potential first-round battle with Winnipeg, Dallas, St. Louis or Utah within the division.

What Could Go Wrong?

Any kind of extended losing streak or slump can lead to not winning the Central Division and having to slug it out in the first-round again. We’ve seen the Western Conference Playoffs sap the energy out of teams in the Central Division in each of the past three seasons, particularly in Dallas. Having to slog it out in long series to even get to the Western Conference Final is debilitating. The Avalanche’s depth up front took a hit this offseason when they traded Coyle and Wood and injuries could cause issues, especially if it means having to play the top players even more. If those guys have to empty the tank to just get to the playoffs, it’ll make life a lot harder once they do and make the dreams of winning the Cup again that much harder.

Top Breakout Candidate

The Avalanche are very much a veteran team but if there’s a young player who will have an opportunity to seize a role it’s forward Ivan Ivan. In 40 games with the Avalanche last season, Ivan had five goals and three assists while averaging 10:02 of ice time. That’s extreme fourth line deployment, but given the limited work, that’s decent offensive output. He wasn’t a big scorer in the AHL with the Colorado Eagles (43 points in 103 games), but at 23 years old, he’s someone who could be effective on the forecheck and frustrating opponents by getting on them as they try to carry up ice.

FORWARDS

Nathan MacKinnon

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	36	78	114	1.44

The beat goes on for Nathan Mackinnon as he recorded his third 110+ point season in a row, which was unbelievably a 24-point drop from what he posted the previous season. The main culprit was MacKinnon not finding the back of the net at the same frequency he did the past two seasons. Shooting percentage is usually the reason for this, but MacKinnon is typically a low-percentage shooter relatively to most elite players. What changed was the rate he shot the puck, seeing his shot rate go from 13.7 per game to 10. He is probably the only player in the league where 10 shots per game is a career low, but MacKinnon notoriously sets the bar high for himself. He’s also the only player who can have a “down” season and still be among the league’s best, as he was last year but the shot volume numbers he posted from 2021-24 are almost impossible to sustain. He also gained another high-volume shooter to work with in Martin Necas, so he had to spread the wealth a little more rather than take every shot, which clearly wasn’t a bad thing because he led the league in assists. The race for the best forward in the league is always neck-and-neck between him and McDavid. Both dominate the game in their own ways and MacKinnon does it through pure explosive speed, last year was the first time he took over games through playmaking rather than hitting you with a barrage of shots from all angles. Always raising the bar for himself, MacKinnon doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon.

Martin Necas

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	37	45	82	1.05

The midseason trade of Mikko Rantanen sparked some new life into the Avs offence with Martin Necas giving them another explosive player to pair with MacKinnon. They were one of the most exciting lines in the league when they played together. He gave them a different look than Rantanen, playing quicker and less deliberate in the offensive zone. Rantanen being the type who would look for open space and pick his spots while Necas would try to be MacKinnon 2.0 with cycling the puck high and taking shots from every angle. Colorado was the perfect landing spot for Necas after his torrid start with the Hurricanes, as the Avs were willing to give him the 20-21 minutes a night and top line deployment he wanted in Carolina. While he was exciting to watch with the Avs, Necas ended his Colorado tenure just under a point-per-game, which is where he has been for most of his career. He’s the type of player who can win games on his own for you when he’s hot, and cost you games when he goes cold, as he likes to have the puck on his stick all the time. It’s electrifying when he’s on a hot streak and a problem when he’s in a cold spell because he will try to win the game in one shift. Carolina opted to move on from him despite putting up career numbers and the Avs have one year to decide if Necas is a player they want for the long haul. His talent is undeniable.

Brock Nelson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	24	29	53	0.67

The Avs arduous quest for replacing Nazem Kadri took another turn when they moved on from Casey Mittelstadt in favor of longtime Islander Brock Nelson. He was the reliable second line pivot on Long Island for almost his entire career and was a model of consistency with nine season of scoring 20 or more goals. He’s a jack-of-all-trades player who can play on both special teams' units, but his knack for goal-scoring is what has kept him high in the lineup. Not just from going to the net, but from having the combination of patience and composure whenever he needs to make an extra move or two to score. Both off the rush and when he’s stationed in front of the net. His game is very direct and straight-forward when he gets to lead the rush, as he’ll usually take it to the net and try to deke the goalie out of his pads rather than look for the pass. Nelson has always had a unique combination of grit and skill for that reason because he will take hits to make plays by driving the net, but he can make those two or three slick moves to make the goaltender cheat. His all-around game is usually solid, although he took a step back defensively on a chaotic Isles team. Typically, one of their more trusted players on the second line, Nelson never handled the brunt of the defensive responsibilities reserved for the likes of Pageau and Cizikas, so he’s stepping into a similar role in Colorado with them needing a consistent scoring center on their second line in the worst way. If Nelson can stay 80% of the player he was on Long Island, Colorado will get what they want, but at 33 years old with a lot of miles logged, his best years are probably behind him.

Arturri Lehkonen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
73	24	23	47	0.64

Lehkonen was asked to try and fill the Landeskog role when the Avs captain started his long IR stint. Stapled to MacKinnon for most of his Colorado tenure, Lehkonen knows the ins and outs of how to produce in the Avs system, scoring a career high 27 goals last year with the majority of them coming at even strength. The addition of Necas gave Lehkonen a new wrinkle to prepare for, with a high-volume shooter added to the mix as opposed to Rantanen, who would rotate with him in front of the net. This forced Lehkonen to deal with more coverage in the net-front role, teams double teaming him, and he had to work extra hard to find loose pucks. Lehkonen also had to be more versatile in his own game, looking for an extra pass instead of jamming for rebounds. Filling the gaps of what your linemates aren’t doing is what being the third wheel on a line is all about, but you also have to be skilled enough to not get stuck playing one way. Lehkonen’s done an excellent job of that. He has better hands and is a quicker skater than most forwards who get stuck in the net-front spot, so it makes him a tougher player to defend, as he can catch you off-guard with some of the plays he makes. Combine that with how good he is on the penalty kill and it's hard to ask for a better complementary forward.

Val Nichushkin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
61	29	18	47	0.77

Nichushkin played only half of the season, missing the first month serving a suspension for violating the NHLPA Player Assistance Program and suffering an injury at the end of December. He was an integral part of the team’s Stanley Cup run years ago, and his last few seasons have been some of the most productive of his career, but the problem being he has yet to play a full season since arriving in Colorado all the way back in 2020. Injuries have been the story of Nichushkin’s career, dating back to his second year when he had hip surgery and it’s been something he’s had to deal with ever since. When healthy, he’s the ideal Colorado forward. A quick, powerful skater who will go to the net and has the hands to make the finishing plays on breakaways. Always one of the best players on the team at producing scoring chances, Nichushkin’s size, skill and nose for the net makes him a versatile guy in the Avs lineup. He can play on the top line with MacKinnon, but he can also drive his own line, regularly logging the 20-22 minutes a night with the Avs other star players. Staying in the lineup is the key for him.

Gabriel Landeskog

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	18	35	53	0.82

Landeskog made an emotional return to the Colorado lineup in the playoffs after three years on the shelf with a lingering knee injury that required several surgeries. The Avs weren’t sure when they would see their captain suit up for them again, so seeing him take the ice in Game 3 against Dallas was major lift to the organization. As fate has it, he scored in his second game back in the lineup on home ice and ended the playoffs with four points in five games. The last time we saw Landeskog play a full-season, he was scoring at over a point-per-game pace, which was a regular theme with him in his late 20’s. How he performs after three years out of the game is anyone’s guess. His longtime linemate in Mikko Rantanen is gone but he has mastered the art of playing in the Avalanche system and what you need to do to complement their stars. Landeskog’s specialty for years has being going to the net and scoring a high number of goals from having the puck bounce off him. Landeskog became less of a puck-carrier and someone who drives the bus in the neutral zone as MacKinnon’s game started to enter another stratosphere, so he’s had to pick up the intricacies of playing away from the puck. Always being around MacKinnon when he needs support and in front of the net when the Avs do their three-man high cycle in the zone. It’s just a matter of how quickly Landeskog can get back to full speed after so much time off.

Ross Colton

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	17	21	38	0.47

A top-heavy team all season, the Avs felt the loss of Ross Colton when he was out of the lineup for two months with a broken foot. They didn’t have him for the playoffs either after an injury took him out of Game 1 against Dallas. He might be just a depth guy, but he was one of the few sources of secondary scoring they had early in the season when he was healthy. He made a name for himself with the Lightning as a tenacious, bottom-six player who can provide some jolt to your offence. He loves shooting the puck and is savvy with getting himself open for good chances. He’s skilled enough to carry his own line, his love for carrying the puck making him a good fit for the Avs system where transition play dominates. Not a physical player in the sense of delivering big hits, but he doesn’t mind taking hits to make plays, always battling his way to the front of the net and fighting for positioning to get loose pucks. A depth player you take for granted until he’s not there anymore, as was the case for Colorado early in the season, because he can still tilt the ice for your team even when he’s not scoring. This season could tell a lot about him with Brock Nelson taking the 2C spot and Jack Drury possibly bringing more upside to the table as a 3C, pushing Colton to the wing or in a more defensive oriented role.

Jack Drury

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	9	18	27	0.34

While he was the less exciting part of the Necas-Rantanen trade, the Avs value Jack Drury’s contributions as a defensive player. Right off the bat, they used him on the penalty kill and relatively high in the lineup until the midseason trades for Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle. Drury is never a drag when he’s on the ice, he sees the game well and is always in the right spot to make the next play, excelling at making one-touch passes for skilled linemates and playing the high forward to keep long possessions going. He doesn’t have the finishing touch or skill to be a regular in the top six, not handling the puck well when he makes a play under pressure and an easy shooter to read even when he gets space. Colorado did make great use of Drury as one of the guys they play with a lead, moving him up in the lineup when they needed to kill the clock. Sometimes you need players who thrive in the doldrums of the game to make sure nothing happens while they’re on the ice. It’s hard to find players better than Drury for that. Colorado tried to untap some of his skill while he played higher in the lineup, but with Nelson re-signed, Drury will be properly slotted on the third line.

Logan O'Connor

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
64	12	12	24	0.38

Sometimes it’s easy to mistake O’Connor for MacKinnon when you’re watching the Avs. You see the 25 and think it’s 29 because he’s skating like lightning just as MacKinnon would do. The similarities stop there as O’Connor doesn’t have close to the same skillset, but he doesn’t have to in his role as a penalty kill workhorse. One of the more heralded defensive forwards in the NHL, O’Connor uses his speed to defend better than anyone, being an annoying presence on the forecheck and while defending. He is constantly in the face of players trying to cycle the puck and has a knack for turning turnovers into breakaways. Whether he scores on them or not is usually a secondary concern for the Avs. Although his offence has started to come around a little the last two years with back-to-back 10+ goal seasons. Anything more than that will be gravy. How effective he will be after off-season hip surgery, however, is one thing the Avs must be concerned with considering that speed and acceleration are big parts of his game. His return to the lineup is slated for November at the latest.

DEFENCE

Cale Makar

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	30	64	94	1.16

The most explosive, dynamic defenceman in the league, Makar took home his second Norris after being in a close race with Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes all season. He is the gold standard for the modern NHL defenceman, putting up unprecedented offensive numbers his entire career. Makar always looks like he’s playing a different game than everyone else, quickly getting from one side of the rink to the other to keep pucks in or break the defense down. It’s easy to take it for granted when you see it every night because Makar makes a lot of difficult things look routine. Not just walking the blue line but moving laterally or backwards in the offensive zone while controlling the puck on a string to keep the cycle going and while dropping a short pass to a forward that’s skating downhill at full speed. It’s things like that which make the Avs offence deadly. Having the elite forwards also helps, but Makar has the confidence to play like this even behind the Avs fourth line. There are some defencemen who can skate like Makar and there are a few who can handle the puck like him, but there aren’t any who can do both at the same time, which is what makes him a special player. This isn’t even getting into how he can score from distance, having pinpoint accuracy on shots from 50 feet away, which also makes him different from other high-scoring defencemen that rely on creeping in from the point or using the booming slapshot. Makar is truly one of a kind.

Devon Toews

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	8	35	43	0.57

Adding Devon Toews back in 2021 was the key to unlocking Makar’s potential. Not just as a player to be his safety valve, but a partner who can skate with him and not get overwhelmed with Makar starts to dance and take risks in the offensive zone. Toews’ skating is heralded as his best asset, as he loves playing the free safety role in the offensive zone with intercepting clearing attempts. His passing is right behind that, and it makes him a critical part of how the Avs like to attack through the neutral zone. Since Toews can’t keep every puck in the zone, what he likes to do instead is allow the puck to get over the blue line, wait for everyone to tag up and zip a pass to a teammate streaking into the zone. This reload method is an integral part of the Avs offence and Toews is part of what makes it go. He’s not the special talent Makar is, but he’s a complete defenceman who can do everything. He defends with his legs and by keeping the play in front of him better than anyone and excels at shutting off plays at his own blue line. Offensively, he complements Makar nicely as someone who can read off him and is very dangerous when he can creep in from the point and get his wrister on net. There’s always a lot of focus on what Makar is doing in the offensive zone, so Toews can creep in unnoticed and score some sneaky goals this way. Point production is never the concern with Toews, as he is Colorado’s defensive MVP.

Brent Burns

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	9	27	36	0.44

Last year was the first time Burns didn’t hit 30 points in a full season since 2012, his first year in San Jose. Father time has caught up to the now 40-year-old as the explosivity to his game isn’t there anymore and he saw his role shift in Carolina to more of a shutdown role to fill the absence of Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei. In the grand scheme, he did fine. He can still do a lot of the disruptive work in the defensive zone when defending the cycle, always getting a stick on a play and moving the puck out of harm's way. Defending one-on-one is where he struggled and it was more of a problem last season with him playing the tough matchups. He still plays very high in the zone to challenge attacking forwards and he either gets them or misses and gives up a Grade A chance the other way. He can still skate smoothly, but doesn’t accelerate well, so he ended up on the wrong end of some highlights from getting beat to the inside often. Nothing much has changed about how he plays offensively, if he gets the puck it’s going to the net. He saw less of a reward for it offensively last season, but it’s something that should intrigue Colorado fans with how many forwards they have who are skilled at tipping pucks. Burns can still play at a high level at his age, so it’s all a matter of when his age starts to catch up with him. He might avoid hitting the wall longer than most with how much of a physical specimen he is, but it’s something that comes for every player eventually.

Samuel Girard

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
71	2	18	20	0.28

Now, one of Colorado’s longest-tenured players, it doesn’t feel like that long ago when Girard burst onto the scene in his rookie season. He was a nimble, exciting puck-moving defenceman that had a lot of poise and confidence we didn’t typically see from smaller blueliners in the NHL. Once Makar arrived, Girard was old news and became a mainstay on the Avs second pair, a role that he’s had on lockdown for the past five years. It’s not abnormal for a smaller defenceman to play as much as Girard does in a shutdown role, but he is on the extreme end of the height spectrum, so he’s slotted in a unique way for a player of his stature. It’s easy for him to get lost in the shuffle watching Colorado because of Toews and Makar, but Girard’s puck-moving is as good as it was in his rookie year. He’s improved by playing a safer game, trusting his partners to make the next play more and not trying to do everything himself. He complements the forwards nicely in the offensive zone but doesn’t get the same level of opportunities playing behind the second and third lines. Defending the rush is his one sore spot and opposing teams tend to go after him more because of his size, doubly when he’s paired with Josh Manson instead of Sam Malinski. Girard likes to defend with his body and isn’t the best with timing the hip checks or anticipating where the play is going if he has multiple reads with the puck. It’s something that Colorado’s always had to work around with him, but he’s still a solid 3rd or 4th option on the Avs blue line.

Goal

Mackenzie Blackwood

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
57	33	15	4	5	0.909	2.50

Very few teams will enter the upcoming season having completely scrapped their goaltending tandem and starting from scratch. One of those, though, is the Colorado Avalanche, who bounced both Justus Annunen and Alexandar Georgiev following tough performances and brought in new names to hopefully take the reins for the time being. Perhaps the most exciting name in the depth chart now is Mackenzie Blackwood, who may have finally found his home in Colorado following an up-and-down career in New Jersey and a brief stint helping the San Jose Sharks with their rebuild. He arrived in Colorado last season and immediately made an impact, finishing the year with one of his best statistical performances since going pro in 2017. He's a good fit on paper, too, with both the big physical presence the Avalanche tend to prefer in net and a strong positional game that makes it hard for shooters to pull him out of position. He seemed to regain some of his rhythm during his time with San Jose after looking like he'd lost his timing in New Jersey, and he was arguably the biggest factor in Colorado going from a team that might need to retool to a team that looked ready to push for the playoffs once more.

He'll be accompanied by Scott Wedgewood for the time being, making for a fun Devils reunion in net that should keep Colorado's netminding consistent and easy to work with for the defence in front. But don't be surprised if Trent Miner gets a look or two this year, particularly if either Wedgewood or Blackwood end up needing to spend time on IR.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – COLORADO AVALANCHE – Team Preview

Sun, 15 Sep 2024 20:00:26 +0000

_{WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 13: Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) stickhandles during the Colorado Avalanche versus Washington Capitals National Hockey League game on February 13, 2024 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)}

If nothing else, Colorado was an interesting case study last year. Alexandar Georgiev struggled with a 3.02 GAA and an .897 save percentage in 63 contests, but the team in front of him didn’t do him any favors with an xGA/60 of 3.26 to tie for the 23rd in the league. Up front, the Avalanche were missing Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen for significant chunks of the year, the Ryan Johansen experiment was a failure and Gabriel Landeskog didn’t play at all, straining their offensive depth. Oh well, the Avs still led the league offensively with 3.68 goals per game en route to a 50-25-7 campaign. Such is the magic of Nathan MacKinnon (51 goals, 140 points), Mikko Rantanen (42 goals, 104 points) and defenceman Cale Makar (21 goals, 90 points). That star power helped push Colorado past Winnipeg in the first round too, but the Avalanche’s journey was ultimately ended by Dallas in the following series.

WHAT’S CHANGED? The Avalanche had a quiet summer. The biggest potential changes compared to 2023-24 could instead be internal. Nikolai Kovalenko might make an impact with Colorado as a rookie, and Gabriel Landeskog might return to the lineup after missing the past two seasons because of knee problems.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Colorado’s Cup window hasn’t closed yet. MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Makar are all in their prime, so the only question is if the cast around them is good enough to push them the rest of the way. Getting Landeskog back to 100 percent would add another superstar to a team coming off a 50-win season. Nichushkin is suspended until mid-November, and in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, but if he’s available beyond that, then he’s another fantastic top six forward. Throw in a healthy Lehkonen, and suddenly you’re in a position where Colorado is deep enough to put Jonathan Drouin and Casey Mittelstadt on the third line. If all goes right, Colorado could not only be the best offensive team of 2024-25, but one of the best we’ve seen in a while.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? But so much could go wrong. Lehkonen’s injury history is unfortunately getting lengthier, Nichushkin’s situation makes him a big question mark, and who knows when Landeskog will be back or if he’ll play like he used to when he does return. Plus, while MacKinnon did play the full 82 game schedule last year, that’s not the norm for him, so Colorado might have to endure some time without him in 2024-25. Then there’s the goaltending. Alexandar Georgiev left plenty to be desired last year, and even if Colorado can score enough goals to find regular-season success with subpar goaltending, it’s hard to see the Avalanche getting far in the playoffs unless Georgiev does meaningfully better this year or Justus Annunen can take on a bigger role -- neither of which is a safe bet.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Kovalenko had success in the KHL, scoring 32 goals and 89 points in 87 games over his past two campaigns. With that on his resume, the 24-year-old (25 on Oct. 17) is one to watch this year. His role with Colorado isn’t clear, but he might enter the season in a middle-six capacity. Especially with how many question marks Colorado has among its forwards, Kovalenko might end up being an important piece of the puzzle.

Forwards

Nathan MacKinnon

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	51	72	123	1.54

MacKinnon has been among the league’s top players for years, but he reached even greater heights last season, supplying 51 goals and 140 points in 82 regular-season games en route to earning the Hart Trophy for the first time. He achieved those offensive totals by being a model of consistency, never going more than three straight contests without a point. He also had over triple the number of multi-point contests (44) compared to games in which he was held off the scoresheet (13). Put simply, the Avalanche couldn’t have asked for more offensively. There are some warning signs, though, that he might be due for a mild regression. His 12.6 shooting percentage wasn’t high enough to raise alarm bells, but it is a bit above his career average of 10.6, and he finished with 39 secondary assists last year, which is a major jump from his previous career high of 27. Those numbers might indicate that he got a little lucky in 2023-24. Additionally, MacKinnon has something of an injury history, so expecting another 82-game campaign might be asking for a bit much. None of that is to suggest MacKinnon won’t still be one of the league’s top scorers, but perhaps a season closer to 2022-23 (42 goals and 111 points in 71 appearances), should be the expectation going forward. Outside of his offensive contributions, MacKinnon isn’t terribly noteworthy. He’s responsible defensively, but his faceoff percentage has always been poor (45.8 percent over his career), and the 29-year-old isn’t a noteworthy force physically, recording 42 PIM and 55 hits last year. Even with those caveats, though, MacKinnon is well worth his $12.6 million cap hit.

Mikko Rantanen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	44	63	107	1.34

Rantanen exists in the shadow of Nathan MacKinnon, but the 27-year-old Rantanen is a star in his own right. He provided 42 goals and 104 points in 80 regular-season contests in 2023-24, making it his second straight 40-plus goal and 100-plus point campaign. He also recorded 50 PIM, hitting at least that mark for the third straight year, which highlights that the Finnish forward plays with a bit of an edge. Despite usually sharing the ice with MacKinnon, who led the league in shots with 405, Rantanen wasn’t shy about firing the puck either, finishing 21st with 271. That included 78 power-play shots, leading to him recording 14 markers with the man advantage. He also recorded 26 of his 62 total assists on the power play. That’s fine, though, because the Avalanche’s top power-play unit is likely to remain effective, and Rantanen will continue to be a major part of it, so he’s in a prime position to continue getting plenty of points on special teams. His 15.5 shooting percentage from 2023-24 also isn’t a concern given that his career average is 16.1, and his PDO of 1011 from last season suggests that he wasn’t especially lucky either. So long as he can stay fairly healthy -- which is a reasonable expectation after he missed just nine contests over the past three campaigns -- Rantanen is a strong candidate to exceed the 100-point milestone again.

Gabriel Landeskog

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
44	16	18	34	0.77

A strong argument can be made that there isn’t any greater mystery going into the 2024-25 than that of Landeskog. He hasn’t played since June 2022 because of a knee injury, so you could be forgiven for wondering if the 31-year-old’s (32 on Nov. 23rd) career is unfortunately over. However, Landeskog made it clear over the summer that he plans on making his return during the 2024-25 campaign. That’s great news, but it still leaves a lot of unanswered questions. When during the season he might be able to play remains a mystery, and how he’ll fare after such an extended time off is unclear. At his best, Landeskog is an exceptional power forward, who can play a strong two-way game and has a high hockey IQ. He’s a great leader, performs fantastically on the wing while also being able to win faceoffs when the need arises. Put succinctly, he is the full package, and his eight-year, $56 million contract would be seen as an absolute steal today if he had stayed healthy. We’ll have to wait and see what he is now, but if you’re looking at potential bounce-back candidates, there is no one in that category with more potential upside than Landeskog.

Valeri Nichushkin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
60	26	27	53	0.88

Nichushkin set career highs in 2023-24 with 28 goals and 53 points despite being limited to 54 regular-season games with the Avalanche. He’s responsible at both ends of the ice, boasting a positive relative CF%/FF% in each of his past six campaigns. His success continued in the 2024 playoffs with the 29-year-old supplying nine goals and 10 points across eight contests. Inked to an eight-year, $49 million contract that runs through 2029-30, Nichushkin would be poised to begin the upcoming campaign on the top six and as a member of Colorado’s first power-play unit if not for the elephant in the room. Injury wasn’t the primary cause of the big winger’s missed time last year. He entered into the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program in January, and while he made his return in March, Nichushkin was placed back into the program in May. His second entry into the program was accompanied by a six-month suspension that leaves him ineligible to play until mid-November, and after his time is served, he will need to apply for reinstatement. That casts a cloud of uncertainty over Nichushkin’s future. If he comes back from this, the Russian forward still certainly has the skillset to be of tremendous value to Colorado, but it remains to be seen what happens next. It’s also worth noting that it’s possible the Avalanche will trade Nichushkin to give him a fresh start after going through those difficult times. He does have a 12-team no-trade list, but that still leaves Colorado with plenty of flexibility when it comes to shopping him, and his high-end two-way abilities would likely lead plenty of teams to have interest in him, even if there’s risk involved given the amount of term left on his contract.

Casey Mittelstadt

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	17	36	53	0.68

For much of the 2023-24 campaign, offensive depth was an area of concern for the Avalanche. The need to bolster their middle six was great enough that they dealt promising young defenseman Bowen Byram to Buffalo in exchange for Mittelstadt on March 6^th, 2024. The 25-year-old (26 on Nov. 22nd) forward had already established himself as a solid secondary scorer with the Sabres after scoring 15 goals and 59 points in 82 contests in 2022-23 followed by another 14 goals and 47 points across 62 outings last season before the trade. Mittelstadt saw his role decrease with the move to Colorado -- he averaged 18:16 of ice time last year with Buffalo and 15:52 post-trade for the rest of the regular season -- but he still managed to chip in with four goals and 10 points across 18 contests. The Minnesota native then stepped up in the playoffs with three goals and nine points in 11 appearances. Mittelstadt figures to start this season as the Avalanche’s second-line center, but who his wingers will be is an open question. Valeri Nichushkin (NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program) is suspended until mid-November, Artturi Lehkonen (shoulder) is questionable for training camp and Gabriel Landeskog’s (knee) status remains an open question. In a worst-case scenario, the Avalanche might start the campaign even thinner up front than they were last year, which would result in Mittelstadt not having great linemates to play alongside. That adds an element of uncertainty to his prospects, but it’s still reasonable to assume he’ll at least reach the 50-point milestone for the third straight campaign, provided he stays healthy.

Artturi Lehkonen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
64	21	32	53	0.83

Since joining the Avalanche via a trade back in March 2022, Lehkonen has excelled when healthy, but unfortunately, that qualifier is important because he’s spent a lot of time on the sidelines. Lehkonen has 43 goals and 94 points in 125 regular-season contests with Colorado, including 16 goals and 34 points across 45 outings in 2023-24. Along the way, he missed over two months due to a neck injury. He managed to stick around for the rest of the campaign aside from a two-game absence due to an illness, but then in May, he underwent a shoulder procedure that left him questionable for the start of training camp. Even if Lehkonen is healthy for the start of the campaign, it’s not clear how much spending the summer rehabbing will impact his play this season. Given his recent injury history -- you'd have to go back to 2018-19 to find the last time he played in at least 75 games -- it's also hard to count on him playing a full campaign even if his shoulder doesn’t end up being a factor. Under the best of circumstances, Lehkonen has the potential to exceed the 60-point milestone, but it would likely be a safer bet to anticipate him finishing in the 40–50-point range.

Jonathan Drouin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	17	30	47	0.60

Colorado looked to bolster its scoring depth in the summer of 2023 by adding Drouin and Ryan Johansen. Both were risky additions who had success in the past but were coming off rough campaigns. Ultimately, the Johansen addition backfired, but Drouin proved to be a great selection, providing 19 goals and 56 points in 79 outings in 2023-24. That’s the third time in Drouin’s career that he’s exceeded the 50-point mark, but it’s the first instance of it since 2018-19. It helps that the Avalanche put him in a position to succeed, giving him an average of 18:11 of ice time compared to just 14:54 with Montreal in 2022-23. Perhaps more importantly, Drouin spent a fair amount of the time sharing the ice with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen in both five-on-five and power-play situations. Of his 56 points, MacKinnon was on the ice for 41 and Drouin averaged roughly 2.62 points per 60 minutes when sharing the ice with the superstar. That dropped to about 1.81 points per 60 minutes when Drouin was separated from MacKinnon. That’s not necessarily a huge problem because Drouin is projected to play primarily on the first line and top power-play unit again this year, but his dependence on his elite linemates does add an element of risk when assessing him. To make things even more troubling, his 15.0 shooting percentage last season was way above his career average of 9.4 and the first time he hit double digits since 2016-17 (min. 30 games). It seems fair to say that circumstances need to break in his favour in order for him to replicate last season’s offensive success.

Miles Wood

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	11	18	29	0.39

Wood doesn’t have enough skill to serve in a top six role, but he plays a physical enough game to make him a nice addition to utilize on the third or fourth line. After inking a six-year, $15 million contract with Colorado as an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2023, he went on to record nine goals, 26 points, 75 PIM and 107 hits in 74 regular-season contests during the first campaign of that deal. With the exception of 2021-22 when he was limited to three games, it was his fifth straight campaign in the 23–27-point range. It also marked the fifth occasion of him providing at least 75 minutes in the sin bin and the third time he’s reached the 100-hit mark. Wood will be 29-years old at the start of the campaign (he’s celebrating his birthday Sept. 13th), so the gritty winger still should have plenty of good years left in him.

Ross Colton

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	28	46	0.56

Colton is pretty close to the gold standard when it comes to third-line centers. He plays with the type of physical edge you typically want from a bottom-six forward as demonstrated by his 61 PIM and 141 hits in 2023-24, and he’s solid enough on the draw, winning 423 of his faceoffs last year for a 51.6 percent success rate (his career average is a similar 51.9). More than that, he punches above his weight offensively, supplying 17 goals and 40 points across 80 regular-season games last season while averaging a modest 13:43 of ice time. To put that into perspective, only three players recorded more points than him in 2023-24 while logging 14 minutes per game or less. That’s pretty typical of Colton too -- the New Jersey native has recorded over 15 goals and 30 points in each of his past three campaigns while averaging 12:57 over that span. Colorado’s forward corps has some depth problems but is an exception to that. Although his four-year, $16 million contract is somewhat pricy for a third liner, at least Colorado can feel confident in Colton’s ability to fulfill his role.

DEFENCE

Cale Makar

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	24	62	86	1.09

Makar has played in just five seasons, but his resume already includes the Calder Trophy, Conn Smythe Trophy, Norris Trophy and three additional occasions in which he has been a Norris Trophy finalist. He has run into concussion troubles and lower-body issues in recent years, which is concerning, but the 25-year-old (26 on Oct. 30) has still appeared in over 75 contests in two of the past three seasons. He’s also coming off a relatively healthy 2023-24 campaign in which he recorded 21 goals, 90 points, a plus-15 rating and 148 blocks across 77 regular-season games. Makar isn’t perfect. There’s no significant physical element to his game -- he peaked at 95 hits in 2021-22 and dropped to 37 last season. His relative five-on-five CF%/FF% stood at plus-0.0/0.7, which represents career lows and suggests Colorado wasn’t much more successful at even strength when he was on the ice. Admittedly, part of that’s because the Avalanche were a great team overall, but even if you look at his raw five-on-five CF% and FF% from last season, you arrive at 53.0 and 52.8, respectively, which is good, but notably down from each of the previous three years when he finished with above 55 percent in both categories and well below his 2020-21 career highs of 61.0 5v5 CF% and 59.6 5v5 FF%. On the power play, though, he remained as dominant as ever, recording 39 points (seven goals) last year. Even with some small caveats, his value isn’t hard to find, and the Avalanche have a lot of reasons to be thrilled that he’s under contract at a $9 million cap hit through 2026-27.

Devon Toews

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	9	37	46	0.56

Having Cale Makar and Toews available for its top pairing is a luxury Colorado has that doubtlessly makes most other teams envious. There was a time when it looked like that arrangement would be fleeting with cap concerns possibly pricing Toews out, but he ultimately inked a seven-year, $50.75 million contract in October, 2023 that will begin this season. Toews is 30-years old, so it’s fair to worry about how that new deal will look in its back half, but in 2024-25 he should provide good value. Toews had 12 goals, 50 points, a plus-28 rating, 110 blocks and 74 hits in 82 regular-season games last year. Unlike Makar, Toews’ value is almost completely divorced from the power play. In fact, Toews ranked 10th in even-strength points in 2023-24 with 43 -- just four less than Makar -- but the veteran blueliner had just five points with the man advantage. To put that into context, only one other defenseman, Kris Letang, recorded at least 50 points without reaching double digits in power-play points. It’d be interesting to see what Toews could do with a bigger power-play role, but that’s not expected to happen. Makar is a mainstay on the top unit, and nothing short of an injury would dislodge him from that role. Still, Toews will get plenty of work otherwise -- he averaged 23:26 of ice time last year and will likely get that much responsibility or more in 2024-25.

Samuel Girard

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	3	21	24	0.32

Girard missed over a month of playing time because he was in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program in 2023-24 and sustained a concussion late into the campaign. When he was in the lineup, the 26-year-old blueliner recorded three goals, 18 points, 99 blocks and 76 hits. That average of 0.31 points per game was Girard’s worst pace of his career. That’s due in large part to two long cold streaks -- one from Oct. 11-Nov. 11 (one assist in 13 games) to start the campaign and a terrible stretch from Feb. 10-April 13 (three assists in 28 contests). Defensively, things were better for him. His blocks and hits were high compared to what he usually produces, especially given how much time he missed. His relative five-on-five CF%/FF% were also plus-2.5/2.8, which suggests the Avalanche were a better team when he was on the ice compared to when he wasn’t, which is impressive, especially after considering how strong a team Colorado was overall. Looking ahead, he may perform better offensively in 2024-25 -- he did record at least 27 points in five straight campaigns from 2018-19 through 2022-23 -- but there’s a ceiling on his scoring production due to the presence of Cale Makar and Devon Toews. Provided Makar and Toews are healthy, Girard is unlikely to be more than a second-pairing defenseman and his power-play ice time will probably be limited. Still, he’ll be an asset for the Avalanche at even strength and when shorthanded, which is what they need from him anyway.

Josh Manson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	6	16	22	0.29

The Avalanche have no shortage of skill from the backend, but Manson isn’t part of that. Sure, he provided 25 points (eight goals) in 76 contests last season -- his highest scoring total since 2017-18 -- but he continues to earn his paycheck through his play when the puck isn’t on his stick. The 32-year-old defenseman (33 on Oct. 7th) finished 2023-24 with 87 PIM, 109 blocks and 211 hits. He averaged 17:47 of ice time, which was fifth out of the six Colorado defensemen who logged at least 50 games, but he was leaned on in shorthanded situations. He was also roughly twice as likely to start a shift in the defensive zone (16.4 percent) compared to the offensive zone (6.6 percent), which is another way to highlight how the Avalanche utilized him. He has another two seasons left on his four-year, $18 million contract, and Colorado is likely to continue to deploy him in much the same way they have -- when he is healthy. Although he managed to avoid any major stints on the sidelines last season, he has accumulated something of an injury history, and given his age and the hard style of play he’s accustomed to, it unfortunately wouldn’t be surprising if he misses a significant chunk of the 2024-25 campaign. Those health concerns are the biggest drawback here because when he’s available, Manson is a nice blueliner to plug into the second or third pairing.

GOAL

Alexandar Georgiev

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
50	29	17	4	3	0.905	2.88

Justus Annunen

If the Colorado Avalanche were starting to sweat at the start of last season, they certainly didn't show it - and at long last, it seems like it's Justus Annunen's time to shine in the Mile High City. The Finnish-born prospect looked back and better than ever last year, finally putting up the numbers he had looked capable of during his draft season and outplaying his tandem partner in Alexandar Georgiev by a handy amount. Some of that, of course, could be due to the workload that Georgiev took on last year; he slogged his way to 63 games played last year, more than half of those at altitude. And his best months from a numbers perspective were the ones where he got to share the workload; he played 33 of his 63 games from November to January, and it certainly showed.

The biggest question mark for Annunen has always been his conditioning, especially now that he seems to be fully recovered from both the injury that held him out of a partial season three years ago and the adjustment to North America he faced the following season. There's no guarantee that as he takes on more workload from Georgiev, his numbers will stay the same - and for Colorado, that's a looming question moving forward. Overall, though, things are looking brighter for the Central Division club with their in-net tandem - and if Annunen can prove that his partial rookie campaign wasn't a fluke, they should be set for a number of years to come.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Difference makers in the final week of the season

Scott Cullen — Fri, 07 Apr 2023 19:01:41 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, players that might make a difference in the final week of the season, including Alex Lyon, David Perron, and Thomas Novak, plus some keeper league options to consider.

#1 In a season with some unexpected goaltending performances, Florida getting clutch performances out of 30-year-old Alex Lyon is one of the bigger surprises. With the Panthers pushing for a playoff spot, and Sergei Bobrovsky injured, the job has fallen to Lyon. He stopped 56 of 58 shots in Thursday’s 7-2 win over Ottawa, marking his fifth straight win, and he has a .961 save percentage in those five starts.

#2 Veteran winger David Perron is finishing strong for a Red Wings squad that has generally been fading down the stretch. Perron has put up 16 points (8 G, 8 A) with 36 shots on goal in his past 16 games. He is making the most of his opportunity on Detroit’s top line with Dylan Larkin and Dominik Kubalik. That trio has been excellent, capturing 59.2% of expected goals and 68.1% of goals during five-on-five play.

NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 19: Nashville Predators center Thomas Novak (82) is shown during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Edmonton Oilers, held on December 19, 2022, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

#3 Nashville’s improbable push for a playoff spot has been due in no small part to the emergence of young players who have been thrust into bigger roles. Center Thomas Novak is still widely available in fantasy leagues, despite scoring 30 points (13 G, 17 A) in his past 26 games. The 25-year-old had seven points (1 G, 6 A) in 27 games as a rookie last season, and started this season in the American Hockey League, so maybe it should not be surprising that he is so readily available, but his production deserves respect.

#4 On a lesser scale, Predators center Cody Glass has at least established his credentials as an NHL player and has contributed six points (4 G, 2 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past seven games. He has been averaging more than 17 minutes of ice time per game since the trade deadline, and the Preds remain in the playoff hunt into the final week of the regular season.

#5 Although he was held off the scoresheet in Thursday’s 4-1 win against Minnesota, Penguins right winger Bryan Rust has finished strong in what has otherwise been a relatively disappointing season. The industrious winger has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 30 shots on goal in his past nine games, giving him 20 goals for the fourth consecutive season. Rust has scored on just 9.6% of his shots this season, his lowest mark since 2015-2016.

#6 After erupting for a career-high 35 goals last season, Calgary Flames winger Andrew Mangiapane has 17 goals and 40 points heading into the final week of the regular season. However, he has been finding the scoresheet more frequently, putting up eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his past 11 games, as he continues to thrive on a line with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman. That trio has controlled 66.8% of expected goals and 72.9% of goals during five-on-five play. If the Flames somehow manage to reach the postseason, a lot of credit will be due to that line.

#7 Last week, I hit on several St. Louis Blues players that are providing good value late in the season. Add one more this week: Alexei Toropchenko. The 23-year-old scored a goal in Thursday’s 3-2 win over the Rangers, giving him six points (4 G, 2 A) and 15 shots on goal while playing nearly 14 minutes per game in his past six games.

#8 Consistency is sometimes elusive for the Rangers’ Kid Line, but Alexis Lafreniere has delivered seven points (2 G, 5 A) in his past seven games. He has scored 35 of his 39 points at even strength, the same as Matt Boldy, Alex DeBrincat, and Brad Marchand, among others.

#9 The top five defensemen when it comes to goals this season are largely who one might expect to finish in that top tier – Erik Karlsson, Dougie Hamilton, Roman Josi, and Cale Makar hold down four of the top five spots. Tied with Josi, and one goal ahead of Makar, is Carolina Hurricanes blueliner Brady Skjei who has nine points (6 G, 3 A) with 38 shots on goal in his past 13 games.

#10 Frequently a reluctant shooter, Blue Jackets center Jack Roslovic has put up eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. He has 44 points (11 G, 33 A) on the season, one off the career-high 45 points that he produced last season. Roslovic is having some late season success with rookie Kent Johnson on his wing.

#11 The Buffalo Sabres and Colorado Avalanche are the only two teams that still have five games remaining on their respective regular-season schedules. For fantasy squads that need every possible edge, finding a few extra games can make a difference. A couple of Sabres worth considering:

Owen Power – Buffalo’s rookie defenseman has six assists in his past five games. There is a ceiling on his offensive upside as long as Rasmus Dahlin is quarterbacking the top power play unit, but five games from Power could offer more potential than three games from other defenders.

Casey Mittelstadt – With Tage Thompson working his way back from injury, the Sabres have kept Mittelstadt with Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch. Mittelstadt could stand to shoot more but has delivered nine assists in his past five games.

#12 And a couple of Avs that could offer a late season lift:

Samuel Girard – Although Devon Toews and Bowen Byram are even better options, especially when Cale Makar is missing games, Girard has four points (1 G, 3 A) in his past five games, giving him a career-high 35 points but he also has a career-high 111 blocked shots and his 64 hits is one away from his career best, set last season.

Evan Rodrigues – With Gabriel Landeskog and Artturi Lehkonen out, Rodrigues has the opportunity to skate on Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen – a good place to ride their coattails to more points. When Rodrigues gets more ice time, the points have followed. He has 26 points (10 G, 16 A) in the 39 games in which he has played more than 17 minutes.

#13 The Top 10 scorers since the March 3 trade deadline, among players that were traded before the deadline:

Sammy Blais, St. Louis – 16 points (6 G, 10 A) in 18 GP

Marcus Johansson, Minnesota – 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 16 GP

Timo Meier, New Jersey – 13 points (9 G, 4 A) in 18 GP

Rasmus Sandin, Washington – 13 points (1 G, 12 A) in 15 GP

Jakub Vrana, St. Louis – 12 points (9 G, 3 A) in 17 GP

Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis – 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 17 GP

Tyson Barrie, Nashville – 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in 19 GP

Patrick Kane, N.Y. Rangers – 10 points (5 G, 5 A) in 15 GP

Mattias Ekholm, Edmonton – 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in 17 GP

Nino Niederreiter, Winnipeg – 10 points (6 G, 4 A) in 17 GP

While players like Meier, Tarasenko, and Kane would have been rostered in most leagues, there was significant value to be found via unexpected sources. Blais is the most obvious, but Johansson, Sandin, and Vrana have seen a significant upgrade in their respective value since the deadline. Kane might have been the biggest name to move, but his production has been mediocre and he is nursing an injury, with an eye towards getting healthy for the postseason.

#14 If you’re looking for some keepers for next season, consider Nick Schmaltz and Barrett Hayton of the Arizona Coyotes. Schmaltz has 33 points (14 G, 19 A) in his past 30 games and while he is not going to keep scoring on more than 22% of his shots, as he has during that hot stretch, he has a good thing going with Clayton Keller. Hayton has had similar success, putting up 28 points (13 G, 15 A) in his past 32 games and he has been generating more shots on goal, so he has not been as dependent on an inflated shooting percentage. The Coyotes should have some new faces up front next season, but Schmaltz and Hayton have shown in the second half of this season that they can be reliable offensive contributors.

#15 He has missed time following sports hernia surgery and has bizarrely seen his ice time cut this season but hold on to Winnipeg Jets right winger Nikolaj Ehlers. He has 36 points (12 G, 24 A) in 42 games but has played just 15:49 per game, a significant drop from the career-high 18:04 per game that he played last season. There could be changes in Winnipeg in the offseason, but Ehlers should be considered part of the solution there, with a bigger role than he has had in 2022-2023.

#16 A deeper cut for potential keepers for next season is Carolina Hurricanes center Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The 22-year-old pivot has scored 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in his past 18 games, lifting him to a modest career high of 39 points. This late surge does show some promise and Kotkaniemi should still be on his career ascent, even though he is wrapping up his fifth NHL season.

#17 While most fantasy managers would already be inclined to keep Florida Panthers winger Sam Reinhart, he is probably even more valuable than expected. Not only does Reinhart have 64 points (30 G, 34 A) in 79 games, but he has done this with a five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of 6.5%, which is very low for a scoring forward. That is the first time since 2017-2018 that it has been under 8.0%, so he is likely due to pick up more assists next season.

#18 On the surface, Ottawa Senators winger Alex DeBrincat has had a disappointing season, going from 41 goals in 2021-2022 to 26 goals this season. That does not mean that the 25-year-old sniper is not worth keeping for next season. His shooting percentage dropped to 10.1% this season, the second lowest mark of his career, but he generated 3.27 shots on goal per game this season, compared to 3.29 per game last season. A simple boost in shooting percentage could be enough for DeBrincat to get back to pushing for 40 goals. There is, admittedly, some uncertainty in where DeBrincat could play next season, as he is a restricted free agent due a high qualifying offer, but he is a good bet to be more productive in the 2023-2024 season.

#19 Known more for his defensive acumen, Minnesota Wild center Joel Eriksson Ek has still produced a career high 61 points (23 G, 38 A). The fascinating part is that Eriksson Ek is one of four players to have at least 10 fewer goals than their expected goals total on Natural Stat Trick. He has scored 23 goals with 34.45 expected goals, so it is reasonable to believe that there is even more offensive production possible. The other forwards to have missed their expected goals total by more than 10 are Carolina’s Stefan Noesen along with Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson.

#20 Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid has run away with the scoring race, currently leading teammate Leon Draisaitl by 25 points. The last time a player won the scoring race by that wide a margin was in 1990-1991, when Wayne Gretzky had 32 more points than Brett Hull. McDavid has done this with massive power play production (69 of 148 points with the man advantage), so he has not even needed a lofty on-ice shooting percentage during five-on-five play. His on-ice shooting percentage of 9.4% is higher than last season but is still the second lowest mark of his career. This is all to say that even if the Oilers power play is not quite as dominant next season that McDavid still has some statistical wiggle room in his quest for another huge scoring season.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – O’Reilly in Toronto, Orlov in Boston – Beauvillier, Domi, Novak, Girard plus more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 24 Feb 2023 16:53:17 +0000

TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 18: Toronto Maple Leafs center Ryan O'Reilly (90) readies himself prior to the face-off in the first period during the NHL regular season game between the Montreal Canadiens and the Toronto Maple Leafs on February 18, 2023 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Gavin Napier/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the trade business is starting to pick up, so look to Ryan O’Reilly in Toronto and Dmitry Orlov heading to Boston, plus Anthony Beauvillier, Max Domi, Thomas Novak, Samuel Girard and more that could be worth adding to your fantasy squad.

#1 The Toronto Maple Leafs made a big splash ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline, acquiring center Ryan O’Reilly from the St. Louis Blues. O’Reilly was having a rough year in St. Louis, with 19 points (12 G, 7 A) in 40 games, but has a whole new opportunity in Toronto. He is centering the second line, between John Tavares and Mitch Marner. In his first three games with the Leafs, O’Reilly has five points, including a hat trick at Buffalo on Tuesday.

#2 Coming with O’Reilly in the trade to Toronto is Noel Acciari, a versatile forward who does offer some banger league fantasy value. Acciari has 19 points (11 G, 8 A) in 57 games, so he is not a big scorer, but he has 181 hits, including 13 in three games for Toronto. Acciari’s 11 goals and 19 points is the most of any forward with more than 170 hits.

#3 Having traded already traded Vladimir Tarasenko and Niko Mikkola before dealing O’Reilly and Acciari, the Blues are left with a thin lineup. That could provide an opportunity to find value from players that might not be top of mind when it comes to fantasy value. Brandon Saad returned from injury to skate on the top line with Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. Ivan Barbashev still has a role in the Blues’ top six, at least until he is moved out before the deadline. That could open the door for Josh Leivo or Sammy Blais to see a more significant role down the stretch.

#4 The Boston Bruins did not stand pat with their league-leading record, making a trade with the Washington Capitals on Thursday for defenseman Dmitry Orlov and right winger Garnet Hathaway. Orlov has decent fantasy value in deeper leagues, even though he has never scored more than 35 points in a season. He is playing more than 22 minutes per game this season, the second highest average of his career, and his 88 hits in 43 games is a higher rate than he has recorded in any of his previous 10 NHL seasons.

#5 Garnet Hathaway’s contributions are not that different from Acciari. Hathaway had 16 points (9 G, 7 A) and 198 hits in 59 games for Washington. That style of play should endear him to the Bruins faithful and, playing for a strong Bruins team, might give Hathaway some banger league appeal. With Orlov departing, it looks like Trevor van Riemsdyk will see a bigger role with the Capitals, which includes time on the second power play unit. In his past eight games, van Riemsdyk has contributed four points (2 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal, so it would be too soon to recommend him in most leagues, but it is worth keeping an eye on his role.

#6 A new role with a new team can make all the difference. Just look at Anthony Beauvillier and what he has done with Vancouver since getting acquired in the Bo Horvat trade. Beauvillier has eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 23 shots on goal while playing more than 19 minutes per game in his first nine games for the Canucks. Skating on the top line with Elias Pettersson and playing first unit power play is a better situation than what Beauvillier was typically afforded during his time with the New York Islanders.

#7 While the trade deadline spotlight in Chicago is focused on Patrick Kane, do not overlook Max Domi, who is on a tear of his own and could be moved. Domi has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 13 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. He has 46 points (17 G, 29 A) in 57 games, the third highest point total of his career, while playing a career high 18:14 per game.

#8 One of my favorite value players, Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner is still available in many leagues and in his past 13 games, Jenner has 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 54 shots on goal. Add in 32 hits and a ton of faceoffs and Jenner can contribute to a lot of fantasy categories. Getting to center Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine on the Blue Jackets’ top line has its benefits.

#9 While the popular opinion is that the Colorado Avalanche will acquire a second line center before the trade deadline, they have been getting quality production in that spot from J.T. Compher. In his past 14 games, Compher has produced 14 points (3 G, 11 A) while averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game. The Avs are running Mikko Rantanen on Compher’s right wing and that is a prime opportunity for Compher, who has already hit a career high with 38 points (11 G, 27 A) in 55 games.

#10 Known more for his defensive acumen, Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli becomes a more dangerous player when he is contributing offensively, too, and that is how it has been going lately. In his past seven games, Cirelli has eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 16 shots on goal.

#11 With Ryan Johansen suffering a season-ending injury, the Nashville Predators are getting thin down the middle of the ice. That does put second year pivot Thomas Novak into the spotlight, though. Novak has eight points (4 G, 4 A) during a four-game point streak and played a career-high 18:39 in Thursday’s win at San Jose.

#12 There have been ups and downs for second year Carolina Hurricanes right winger Seth Jarvis, but he appears to be hitting his groove. He has six points (4 G, 2 A) in the past three games and has recorded at least three shots on goal in six straight games. He has returned to skating on Carolina’s top line, with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov, so Jarvis could be poised for a strong finish, though his long-term place on the top line could depend on what the Hurricanes do before the trade deadline.

#13 Although the San Jose Sharks are not headed to the postseason, veteran center Logan Couture is having another productive campaign. In his past nine games, Couture has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 22 shots on goal. He has 48 points (20 G, 28 A) in 59 games, giving him more than 0.80 points per game. The last time he finished a season with that per-game scoring rate was 2018-2019. It is fair to have some skepticism about Couture’s production, however, as his wingers are Michael Eyssimont and Alexander Barabanov, not exactly established premier scoring wingers, and there is a good chance that San Jose’s lineup will get depleted by trades before the deadline.

#14 With Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar again out of the lineup, it is worth paying more attention to puck moving Avs blueliner Samuel Girard. In his past 10 games, the 24-year-old defenseman has 11 points (1 G, 10 A) and 22 shots on goal while playing more than 23 minutes per game. He does most of his damage at even strength, too, with five of his 23 points this season coming on the power play.

#15 His track record leaves me wary, but Columbus Blue Jackets netminder Joonas Korpisalo has undeniably had a strong season and, with a contract that expires at season’s end, he could be a possible trade deadline addition for a team looking to stabilize its goaltending. Korpisalo has a .913 save percentage in 27 games, which ranks 16^th among goaltenders that have appeared in at least 20 games. The lure for any contending teams is that Korpisalo was outstanding in his only postseason experience, posting a .941 save percentage in nine games during the 2019-2020 “bubble” Playoffs.

#16 Leading the Pacific Division, the Vegas Golden Knights have lost goaltenders Logan Thompson and Adin Hill to injuries, prompting the club to recall Laurent Brossoit from the American Hockey League. Brossoit has stopped 62 of 67 shots in two starts since getting pressed into action and he will have value as long as he is going to play. Over his career, he has been an adequate backup, albeit one that does not play very frequently. Can he handle a starter’s role, even in the short term for Vegas? It could be worth a waiver add to find out.

#17 The New York Islanders are in a dire situation now as they battle for a playoff spot. Centers Mathew Barzal and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are among the five forwards out of the lineup. That means Matt Martin is skating on the top line and Kyle Palmieri is on the first power play unit. In his past six games, Martin has five points (2 G, 3 A), 11 shots on goal and 21 hits. In deep leagues, that’s worth a look, even if it is on a short-term basis. After returning from an injury last month, Palmieri has put up nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 32 shots and 21 hits in 13 games. Given his track record, and the fact that he gets more ice time, Palmieri is an even better addition for fantasy managers.

#18 Philadelphia Flyers leading scorer Travis Konecny is dealing with an upper-body injury and that means looking to young wingers who might get more of an opportunity. Owen Tippett has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 36 shots on goal in the past 12 games. He played more than 20 minutes in Florida’s loss at Edmonton on Tuesday, the first time since November that he played more than 20 minutes in a game.

#19 In 2023, the leaders in terms of individual expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 100 minutes): John Tavares, Brady Tkachuk, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matthew Tkachuk, Kevin Fiala, Zach Hyman, Boone Jenner, Connor McDavid, Michael Eyssimont, and Timo Meier. There are a lot of expected names there, but Jenner and Eyssimont stand out for the company they are keeping in this regard. At the other end of the spectrum, there are some surprises, too. Naturally, fourth-line forwards tend to be the ones generating the fewest expected goals, but there are others. Among the 401 forwards that have played at least 100 minutes since January 1, Mitch Marner ranks 378^th. Some other notables: Joel Farabee (373), Andrew Copp (359), and Sam Steel (353).

#20 The most dominant line in hockey probably comes as a surprise. According to Evolving Hockey, there are 59 lines that have played at least 200 minutes together during five-on-five play. The same line ranks first in Corsi For percentage, Expected Goals Percentage, and Goals For Percentage. That line is the Calgary Flames trio of Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, and Blake Coleman. In the past 18 games, Mangiapane has 15 points (6 G, 9 A) and 51 shots on goal, Backlund has 20 points (6 G, 14 A) and 63 shots on goal, and Coleman has 13 points (5 G, 8 A) and 50 shots on goal.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Dach, Mikheyev and Hagel Taking Advantage of New Opportunities, Major Injuries in Edmonton and Colorado, Surprising Goaltenders offering Value

Scott Cullen — Fri, 11 Nov 2022 18:36:21 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, players like Kirby Dach, Ilya Mikheyev, and Brandon Hagel taking advantage of new opportunities, major injuries in Edmonton and Colorado, plus some surprising goaltenders that could offer value right now.

MONTREAL, QC - NOVEMBER 05: Montreal Canadiens center Kirby Dach (77) plays the puck during the Las Vegas Golden Knights versus the Montreal Canadiens game on November 05, 2022, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The Chicago Blackhawks sure seemed to move on quickly from Kirby Dach, the 21-year-old center who was the third pick in the 2019 Draft, when he was traded to the Montreal Canadiens at the 2022 Draft. Dach did not have instant success in Montreal but seems to have found a great spot on the right wing of the Habs’ top line alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. In the past six games, Dach has delivered nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 12 shots on goal, and is starting to show the talent that made him such a high pick in the first place.

#2 Ilya Mikheyev busted out for the Toronto Maple Leafs last season, scoring a career-high 21 goals in just 53 games. He signed in Vancouver as a free agent and has had an instant impact skating on a line with Elias Pettersson and fellow Russian winger Andrei Kuzmenko. In his past seven games, Mikheyev has produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal. For the season, he is playing 17:20 per game, up more than two minutes per game from his ice time in Toronto last season.

#3 The Tampa Bay Lightning brought in winger Brandon Hagel last season to provide forward depth and he was effective in that role. With the Lightning forward group thinned out by injuries and offseason departures, there is now an opportunity for Hagel to contribute more and he is taking advantage of that. He has produced 11 points (5 G, 6 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past eight games, landing on the top line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. Anyone getting a chance to play with those two is going to be worth a look and Hagel’s production gives him a chance to stick there for a while.

#4 The Edmonton Oilers are going to have to make do without left winger Evander Kane for the next 3-4 months after he had his wrist accidentally stepped on by Tampa Bay Lightning winger Pat Maroon. Kane is such an important player for Edmonton and there is not likely going to be a trade to make up for his absence. That means that internal options are the way forward. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are important as the proven complementary pieces in the top six, but Jesse Puljujarvi is getting another crack higher on the depth chart and rookie Dylan Holloway is looking at the best opportunity of his young career. Holloway, the 14^th pick in the 2020 Draft, played a career-high 15:15 in Thursday’s loss at Carolina.

#5 The Colorado Avalanche have been without left winger Valeri Nichushkin since October 25, but it has now been announced that he will miss a month of action after having ankle surgery. Nichushkin was off to an incredible start, with 12 points (7 G, 5 A) in seven games before getting hurt. With Nichushkin and captain Gabriel Landeskog out, Colorado is trying a second line Alex Newhook, Evan Rodrigues, and Martin Kaut. While Newhook and Kaut might have longer range potential, Rodrigues is the one with the most fantasy value right now. He has five points (3 G, 2 A) during a four-game point streak, and he is getting first unit power play reps for the Avalanche.

#6 For years, Dallas Stars left winger Jamie Benn was a premier fantasy hockey performer, scoring a bunch and adding big hit totals to give him elite value at a relatively shallow position. Benn is no longer the same kind of dynamic presence, but he can still turn up the heat from time to time. He had a hat trick last Saturday against Edmonton and has 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 13 games this season, even though his 14:06 average time on ice is the lowest of his career.

#7 New Jersey Devils winger Miles Wood missed nearly all of last season, limited to just three games due to hip surgery. He has returned to action in fine form this season. Although he is skating on the Devils’ fourth line, Wood has been productive, with eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 25 shots on goal in the past six games. Wood has never scored more than 32 points in a season, so keep expectations in check, but his increasing offensive contributions could make him useful in deeper leagues.

#8 Seattle Kraken center Yanni Gourde did not record a point in the first six games of the season, but he has pulled out of that slump to produce eight points (2 G, 6 A) in the past seven games. Gourde brings energy to an effective line with Jared McCann and Brandon Tanev.

#9 Gourde is not the only Seattle center offering good value. Fourth-line center Morgan Geekie is starting to contribute offensively in a way that he never has before in his NHL career. In his past eight games, Geekie has eight points (4 G, 4 A) despite averaging just 10:08 of ice time per game. That lack of playing time makes Geekie an unlikely add in most fantasy leagues, but in deep leagues, it is worth keeping an eye on anyone who puts up a point per game over an eight-game stretch. Maybe that prompts a bigger role for Geekie and if more ice time comes his way, that could change the calculation on his fantasy value.

#10 Although the goals have not come so easily this season, Los Angeles Kings right winger Trevor Moore continues to provide secondary offense. Moore broke through for a career high 17 goals and 48 points last season but has just two goals on 52 shots on goal through 16 games. Moore has added nine assists, but his shot rate is especially notable and suggests that he could be a good buy-low option because he is not likely to keep scoring on less than four percent of his shots on goal.

#11 Arizona Coyotes left winger Matias Maccelli is still considered a rookie after he played 23 games last season. He has continued to develop, even on a bad Coyotes squad, and while he does have eight points (1 G, 7 A) in his past nine games, Maccelli also has just six shots on goal in that time, so it is difficult to expect sustained production.

#12 With Philipp Grubauer out of the lineup, the Seattle Kraken have turned to Martin Jones in goal and the veteran netminder has responded to the challenge, posting a .940 save percentage in his past six starts. Jones has been a below-average goaltender for each of the past four seasons, so modest expectations are the way to go, but if he can provide league average goaltending for the Kraken, the wins will follow.

#13 Florida Panthers goaltender Spencer Knight was supposed to challenge Sergei Bobrovsky for the starting job last season, but it never materialized as Knight finished the season with a .908 save percentage. It was fine, but it’s fair to say the Panthers had higher hopes. After a 40-save shutout against Carolina this week, Knight has a .925 save percentage in six starts this season and that kind of performance is how the backup goaltender challenges for a No. 1 job, especially when Sergei Bobrovsky, the starter, has a .897 save percentage in eight starts.

#14 It is not easy to accrue goaltending value as the starting goaltender for the Arizona Coyotes, but Karel Vejmelka is giving it a shot. In his past six appearances, Vejmelka has four wins and a .944 save percentage, which will play just fine. Wins are going to be a challenge for the Coyotes all season, and Vejmelka is not going to keep stopping 94% of the shots that he faces, but if he is better than league average, he could have fantasy appeal.

#15 New Jersey Devils left winger Ondrej Palat is out 8-10 weeks with a groin injury and the long-term nature of that absence could give a winger like Tomas Tatar the opportunity he needs to maximize his production. Tatar has excellent underlying numbers, with the Devils controlling more than 63% of 5-on-5 score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts with Tatar on the ice. He has chipped in nine points (2 G, 7 A) in the past nine games and a consistent spot alongside Nico Hischier is a good place for Tatar to be.

#16 When Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov suffered a knee injury against Boston last Saturday, it left Toronto in a dire situation in goal. Since Matt Murray was already injured, Erik Kallgren moved into the starting role and the Maple Leafs signed Keith Petruzzelli to be his backup. Petruzzelli, 23, has played 23 games in the ECHL and 11 games in the American Hockey League since finishing four years at Quinnipiac University. While Murray has returned to practice and could be ready for game action again soon, Kallgren has a .890 save percentage in six appearances for the Maple Leafs this season, a .889 save percentage in 20 career NHL games. We knew goaltending would be a major question mark for the Maple Leafs this season, but that question is getting asked loudly very early in the season.

#17 Not only are the Colorado Avalanche dealing with injuries up front, but the defending Stanley Cup champs are also missing Sam Girard and Bowen Byram on the blueline. As a result, Jacob MacDonald and Kurtis MacDermid were in the lineup for Thursday’s win against Nashville. Although MacDonald tends not to play a lot of minutes in the NHL, he has been very productive in the AHL and if Girard and Byram miss significant time, MacDonald might have enough opportunity to be a meaningful contributor to the Avalanche.

#18 Florida Panthers defenseman Radko Gudas remains a rare fantasy hockey contributor. While he has a respectable four points (1 G, 3 A) in 14 games this season, any scoring he does is really a bonus. Gudas has 26 blocked shots and 46 hits, making him one of four defensemen to have at least 20 blocked shots and 40 hits. The others are Jacob Trouba, Connor Clifton, and Jeff Petry. Trouba and Gudas are the only ones in that quartet averaging more than 2.0 shots on goal per game. With the Panthers a little desperate on defense, especially while Aaron Ekblad has been out of the lineup, Gudas is playing a career high 20:52 per game this season.

#19 There is a race between two lines for the most productive during five-on-five play this season. Vegas’ trio of Chandler Stephenson, Jack Eichel, and Mark Stone has scored 6.42 goals per 60 minutes. That comes in just ahead of the Dallas Stars line of Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, and Jason Robertson, at 6.31 goals per 60 minutes. Among lines that have played at least 100 five-on-five minutes together, they are far ahead of No. 3 – the Islanders trio of Anders Lee, Brock Nelson and Anthony Beauvillier, which has scored 4.26 goals per 60 minutes. While some of these players are stars that are not going to be available, Stephenson, Lee, and Nelson are productive players that can be found on the waiver wire in about half of leagues.

#20 The Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers, and Dallas Stars have the top three power plays in terms of goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play. None of those are particularly surprising, but No. 4 is the Arizona Coyotes. That’s a stunner. Matias Maccelli leads the Coyotes with six power play points, one ahead of Clayton Keller, and Nick Ritchie, as well as defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and J.J. Moser.

The Avalanche are humming along at a clip of 15.74 goals per 60 minutes. By way of comparison, the top rate last season belonged to the Toronto Maple Leafs, at 10.23 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play, so the Avs are about 50% better than the top rate in the league last season.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – COLORADO AVALANCHE – NHL Player Profiles

Ryan Dadoun – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 23:04:25 +0000

TAMPA, FL - JUNE 20: Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) skates with the puck during the NHL Hockey Stanley Cup Finals Game 3 between Tampa Bay Lightning and the Colorado Avalanche on June 20th, 2022 at Amalie Arena in Tampa Florida (Photo by Andrew Bershaw /Icon_Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Nathan MacKinnon

If you are looking for a player to build your team around, MacKinnon would have to be one of your top choices. He’s fast, great at setting up his teammates, and if the situation calls for it, more than willing to take the shot himself, which he does with both frequency and success. He did suffer a smattering of injuries over the 2021-22 campaign that limited him to 65 games, but he still scored 32 goals and 88 points. That made it the third straight season where he averaged 1.35 points-per-game. To put that feat in perspective, only two players have averaged more points over the last three campaigns: Edmonton’s Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. That high-level ability to generate offense led to the Avalanche sending him out for an average of 21:04 minutes, which was the seventh most in the league among forwards. It’s worth noting though that despite how much Colorado relied on him, he was almost never deployed when the team was shorthanded. He’s also not great on the draw, winning just 383 of 844 faceoff opportunities (45.4%) last season and he’s only finished with a positive faceoff percentage once in his career. So, he does have his mild shortcomings, but his pros far outweigh them and that was certainly displayed during Colorado’s championship run. He kicked off the playoffs with a seven-game point streak en route to scoring 13 goals and 24 points in 20 games. He’s still in the prime of his career, so it would be no surprise to see another big performance out of him this season. There might be some extra intrigue though given that he’s entering the final season of his team-friendly seven-year, $44.1 million contract and at the time of writing, he hasn’t agreed to an extension.

Mikko Rantanen

Rantanen isn’t quite the team’s best forward nor is he their leader, but it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Avalanche could have won the Cup without him. For years now, whenever Nathan MacKinnon has stepped onto the ice, Rantanen has typically been right there with him, and that one-two punch has been the driving force of Colorado’s offense. Standing at 6-foot-4, 215-pounds, he’s got a size advantage that he knows how to use. A significant chunk of his 5-on-5 goals were shot in front of or near the net. He also complements that size with high-end skill and speed to make him of the league’s best players offensively. Over the last five years he’s averaged more than a point-per-game, but the 2021-22 campaign was his best yet, with him setting career-highs by scoring 36 goals and 92 points in 75 contests. He’s especially dangerous when his teammates can feed him the puck on the power play. He was in a seven-way tie for third place in the NHL with 16 power-play goals last season. He’s also consistent. His longest point drought in 2021-22 was just four games and when it came to the playoffs, he kept powering forward. He only scored five goals in 20 playoff contests, which isn’t a lot by his standards, but he made his presence felt with 20 assists, including 13 where he was the primary helper. He even had an eight-game point streak in the postseason that extended through the entire Western Conference Finals and into the first four games of the Stanley Cup championships. He’s turning just 26 on Oct. 29, making him one of the younger members of Colorado’s core and someone who should play at an elite level for many years to come.

Gabriel Landeskog

Joe Sakic earned a lot of praise for staying the course in spite of past playoff disappointments and finally having that patience validated with the 2022 championship, but we nearly ended up with a very different story. Long-time team captain Landeskog was unsigned and left unprotected ahead of Seattle’s expansion draft. The Kraken ultimately didn’t capitalize on the opportunity and Colorado was able to re-sign Landeskog to an eight-year, $56 million contract the night before the free agent market opened. If things had just played out a little differently, Colorado’s fate might have changed substantially. Landeskog is the heart of the team, but he’s far more than just an important locker room presence. He’s one of the league’s best power forwards, capable of driving the play with the puck and contributing physically without it. He had 30 goals and 59 points in 51 contests last season, making it the best campaign of his career from a points-per-game perspective. To be fair, his career-high 20 shooting percentage will be hard for him to repeat in 2022-23, but then again, he didn’t regress in the playoffs. He found the back of the net with a 19.6% success rate, finishing the postseason with 11 goals and 22 points in 20 contests. His goals came in throughout the playoffs with his longest drought being just three games. That strong postseason play becomes more impressive when you consider that he missed the final 23 games of the regular season due to a knee injury that required surgery, so he was entering the most important games of the year cold and perhaps not quite 100%. He more than earned that new contract and he should continue to play a key role for Colorado this season.

Valeri Nichushkin

Taken with the 10th overall pick in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, it was a while before Nichushkin began to live up to his potential. His early tenure with the Dallas Stars left plenty to be desired and he even went back to the KHL for two years to hone his game. Eventually though he was able to establish himself as a solid middle-six forward with the Avalanche before truly breaking out in 2021-22. He scored 25 goals and 52 points in 62 contests last season, shattering his previous career-high of 34 points, which was recorded back in his 2013-14 rookie campaign. It helped that Nichushkin averaged 19:02 minutes in 2021-22, up from 14:05 just a year prior, but part of the reason why Colorado could lean on him so heavily was his versatility. Nichushkin can comfortably play up-and-down the lineup, being plugged in wherever needed based on the Avalanche’s changing injury situations. The 6-foot-4 forward is responsible defensively, had a strong takeaway to giveaway ratio of 38 to 24, and was a regular contributor to the Avalanche’s penalty kill. He was also Colorado’s top forward in terms of 5v5 Corsi and Fenwick at 59% and 57% respectively (min. 100 total minutes). Nichushkin continued to be an important all-around contributor for the Avalanche in their Stanley Cup-winning playoff run, finishing with nine goals and 15 points in 20 games. His hard work earned him an eight-year, $49 million contract, highlighting the Avalanche’s belief that he will be able to continue to perform at this level for a long time to come. That’s a gamble given that he only has the one great season under his belt, but when you consider his growth and skill set, it’s not a bad bet to make.

Artturi Lehkonen

With an eye towards the playoffs, the Avalanche sacrificed a good prospect in defenseman Justin Barron and a 2024 second-round pick to get Lehkonen from Montreal in March. What they were hoping for was a hard-working, middle-six forward who would offer a nice mix of grit and secondary scoring to their lineup. He ended up being that and more. With Montreal and Colorado last season, Lehkonen scored 19 goals and 38 points in 74 games while averaging 15:06 minutes. The 6-foot, 178-pound forward isn’t the most imposing presence on the ice, but there is a physical element to his game, and he can be used in shorthanded situations. He’s one of those players who typically won’t make headlines but does a lot of things well. We say typically because the 2022 playoffs were an exception. He wasn’t just a role player like he was for Montreal in their 2021 run to the Stanley Cup Final, Lehkonen was truly a difference maker in 2022, scoring eight goals and 14 points in 20 postseason games. That includes four game-winning goals in the playoffs with the highlights being both the Western Conference Finals overtime series winner and the championship-winning goal netted midway through the third period. Those two goals alone were enough to justify the price of acquiring him and cement his place in Colorado’s history. The fact that he was also a consistent factor overall was the icing on the cake. The Avalanche rewarded their playoff hero with a five-year, $22.5 million contract. Don’t expect him to continue to score at the pace he displayed in the 2022 playoffs. Instead look for him to continue to serve as a solid presence in the middle of the lineup.

J.T. Compher

Elite players are important to drive the play, but the quality of a team’s middle-of-the-lineup players can be the difference between making the playoffs and winning a championship. The 2021-22 Avalanche featured impressive depth and Compher was a part of that. He didn’t have regular linemates during the campaign with the Avalanche instead moving him up-and-down the lineup as needed, and he filled that plug-and-play role well, scoring 18 goals and 33 points in 70 contests. He averaged 16:19 minutes, which might be a bit more than you’d expect from a middle-six forward, but that’s because he was a mainstay on special teams, averaging 1:48 and 1:40 minutes on the power play and penalty kill respectively. He only took 102 shots last season, but he is tactical about when he fired the puck. On both the power-play and 5v5 situations, Compher would often put himself in front of the net, which is how he got most of his goals. The result is he had a 17.6 shooting percentage after finishing at 21.3% in 2020-21. On the draw, he saw improvements last season, posting a 51.4% success rate, compared to his pre-2021-22 career average of 47.1%. His role declined to an average of 13:41 minutes during the playoffs, but he still chipped in five goals and eight points in 20 games. The 27-year-old is set to have another serviceable campaign as he enters the final season of his four-year, $14 million contract.

Logan O'Connor

O'Connor is an example of a late bloomer who was never drafted but managed to slowly carve out a role in the NHL. After getting limited stints with the Colorado Avalanche in the previous three campaigns, the 26-year-old forward cemented was a regular last season, scoring eight goals and 24 points in 81 games. He averaged 13:52 minutes while playing primarily in a bottom-six role, though he was occasionally used on the second and even first line. Despite those opportunities with skilled forwards, O'Connor is more of a defensive presence. He led all Avalanche forwards with an average of 2:06 shorthanded minutes as well as 59 blocks. He also ranked third among Colorado forwards with 100 hits and had an impressive 17 to 38 giveaway-to-takeaway ratio. All of that adds up to a player who helps win games without getting a lot of praise for his efforts. In the playoffs he continued to play that quiet supporting role. He had a goal and four points in 17 postseason games while averaging 11:12 minutes. O'Connor is set to begin a three-year, $3.15 million contract. Over the course of that deal, he’s likely to provide more value to the Avalanche than his cap hit would dictate, but he’s going to firmly remain part of the supporting cast rather than one of their headline attractions.

Alex Newhook

After getting a taste of the NHL in 2020-21, including eight playoff games, Newhook entered the 2021-22 campaign as a prime candidate to earn a regular spot with the team. His path did include a stint in the AHL for much of October and early November, but after scoring four goals and 11 points in 10 games with the Colorado Eagles, he was summoned on Nov. 10 and never looked back. Newhook is a terrific skater with lots of offensive potential, but last season he was deployed primarily in a bottom-six capacity. That allowed him to adjust to the NHL in a lower pressure situation and made his inconsistent play easier to swallow. He had 13 goals and 33 points in 71 contests, including a few strong stretches from Nov. 11-24 (6-3-2-5), Dec. 4-10 (4-3-2-5), and Mar. 31-Apr. 16 (8-2-6-8) and plenty of slumps in between. He also struggled on the draw, winning just 34.7% of his faceoffs. That was by far the worst faceoff record of any player who had at least 250 opportunities last season with Tyson Jost being the next lowest at 39.3%. His puck possession numbers weren’t great either. He had a relative 5v5 Corsi of -4.3 and relative 5v5 Fenwick of -5.5, meaning the Avalanche were better in that regard when he wasn’t on the ice. He was used sparingly in the playoffs, registering four assists in 12 games while averaging 10:43 minutes, but being part of the Cup-winning run was still valuable experience for him. That can summarize his season in general: He wasn’t impressive, but it was valuable experience for the 21-year-old and something he can build off. His flashes of high-level play offered glimpses of what he’s capable of and what the Avalanche should see with more frequency in the future.

DEFENSE

Cale Makar

There aren’t many players out there who can look like a steal with a cap hit of $9 million, but Makar certainly qualifies. Makar started his career in 2019-20 with a bang, recording 50 points in 57 games en route to capturing the Calder Trophy and that was merely a taste of what he was capable of. In 2020-21 he finished second in Norris Trophy voting and last season he captured that prestigious award. When you look at what Makar did last season, the first thing that stands out is his work with the puck. He scored 28 goals and 86 points in 77 contests fueled in large part by his speed and creativity. But while his offensive game deservedly attracts attention, that’s not the only service he provides. He’s not big at 5-foot-11, 187 pounds, but he was credited with 95 hits last season, which was significantly more than two other top offensive defensemen, Roman Josi (66 hits) and Adam Fox (30). Makar also finished second on the Avalanche with 110 blocks and led the team with 49 takeaways. His puck possession numbers were superb too. He posted a 56.3% 5v5 Corsi and 55.7% 5v5 Fenwick, both of which were significantly better than what the team did when he was off the ice. As good as he was in the regular season though, he was even better in the playoffs, scoring eight goals and 29 points while averaging 27:04 minutes in 20 contests. After a showing like that, he was the unanimous pick for the Conn Smythe Trophy. The Calder, a Norris, the Conn Smythe, and the Stanley Cup all before his 24th birthday. We’re witnessing the early days of a very special career.

Devon Toews

Over the last few years, the Avalanche have seen the rise of two elite offensive defensemen. One is Cale Makar, who was always a highly regarded prospect and made an immediate impact when he joined the NHL. The other, Toews, was 24, older than Makar is now, when he made his NHL debut. From there Toews managed to establish himself with the Islanders, but they clearly didn’t appreciate his full potential because rather than re-sign him as a restricted free agent, they dealt him to Colorado in October 2020 for a pair of second-round picks. Colorado then inked him to a four-year, $16.4 million contract that’s proven to be a steal. He set career-highs in 2020-21 with nine goals and 31 points in 53, but he showed that was just a taste of what he could do in 2021-22 when he scored 13 goals and 57 points in 66 contests. What makes those numbers particularly impressive is the fact that the Avalanche lean heavily on Makar on the power play, forcing Toews into a more limited role in that regard. Consequently, Toews had 12 power-play points to Makar’s 34, but in terms of even-strength points, Toews had 45 to Makar’s 52. Toews was more than just another offensive defenseman for them though. He plays a fast, smart game that allows him to shine at both ends of the ice. He led the team with an average of 2:47 shorthanded minutes and was third on the squad with 45 takeaways. His outstanding play carried into the playoffs where he scored five goals and 15 points in 20 games while averaging 25:53 minutes. Makar is deservedly the headline attraction in Colorado, but Toews would qualify as the number one defenseman on most other teams.

Erik Johnson

Johnson isn’t the top pairing defenseman he once was. Age, injuries, and the rise of talented young defenders Cale Makar, Devon Toews, and Samuel Girard have combined to push Johnson down into a depth role last season. Still, having a defenseman of Johnson’s caliber in such a position was a nice luxury for the Avalanche to have. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound defenseman embraced his shutdown role, dishing out a career-high 165 hits and leading the Avalanche with 136 blocks. He also was a big part of Colorado’s penalty kill, averaging 2:36 shorthanded minutes. Overall, Johnson averaged 17:53 minutes, including almost no power-play ice time, but he still managed to chip in a bit offensively. He scored eight goals and 25 points in 77 contests. The 34-year-old served as a veteran presence for the Avalanche during their playoff run while continuing to serve in a complementary role. He had a goal and five points while averaging 17:01 minutes in 20 postseason games. He continued to play a physical game, ranking third in the league with 79 hits in the playoffs. His efforts weren’t key to the Avalanche’s postseason success, but he did his part and was rewarded with his first championship. He has one season left on his seven-year, $42 million contract and he’s frankly not going to live up to that cap hit. Unless the Avalanche are forced to deal with significant injuries this season, he’s going to spend almost all the campaign on the third pairing. Still, he’s a solid defensive defenseman who can play a bigger role if the situation calls for it.

Samuel Girard

The Avalanche’s blueline features offensive stars in Cale Makar and Devon Toews, an exciting young blueliner in Bowen Byram, and a pair of physical, shutdown defenseman who can still chip in offensively in Josh Manson and Erik Johnson. Then there’s Girard. At 5-foot-10, 170-pounds, he’s not an imposing force on the ice, but he’s also not allergic to physical play. He’s not going to put up the crazy numbers of Makar or Toews, but he is a great skater, strong with the puck, and adept on the power play. He’s not the star attraction of the Avalanche in any regard. What Girard does provide is an overall solid package and someone who slides into a top-four role even on a team with as deep a blueline as Colorado. Girard had five goals and 28 points in 67 games while averaging 21:39 minutes. Of that, he registered seven assists on the power play while being limited to an average of 1:50 minutes – roughly half of what Makar received. When it came to even strength, he was slotted wherever there happened to be a need instead of getting a consistent defensive partner. Over 10% of his total ice was shared with each of Byram, Toews, Makar, Erik Johnson, and Jack Johnson. Girard had a goal and three points in seven games to start the playoffs, but his run was abruptly halted when he suffered a broken sternum early in Game 3 of the Avalanche’s second round series against St. Louis. Going forward, there’s still a top-four slot available for Girard, but as long as he’s with Colorado, he’s not going to be a mainstay on the top power-play unit and that limits his offensive potential.

Josh Manson

When the Avalanche acquired Manson in March, he knew that he wasn’t coming in to play a starring role. The Avalanche already had a pair of elite defensemen in Cale Makar and Devon Toews who would continue to eat big minutes and power the offense from the blueline. What the Avalanche were instead looking for was a big, physical blueliner and that’s exactly what they got. Through 67 games with Anaheim and Colorado last season, the 6-foot-3, 218-pound defenseman was credited 179 hits and accumulated 65 penalty minutes, including three fighting majors. He does more than just provide grit though. He’s typically been responsible defensively and had okay 5v5 puck possession numbers in Anaheim (50.5% Corsi, 49.6% Fenwick) despite not being a significant offensive contributor. Speaking of, he finished the campaign with six goals and 16 points. That’s a far cry from the 37 points he recorded in 2017-18, but that campaign has been the exception rather than the rule in his career and he shouldn’t be counted on to ever come close to that level again. He did have some special moments in the playoffs though. Manson provided three goals and eight points in 20 playoff games, including the overtime winner in Game 1 of the second round. Although he was only a rental when Colorado acquired him, he was a good enough fit to warrant Colorado signing him to a four-year, $18 million contract. He figures to slot in as the team’s fourth or fifth defenseman and continue to serve as a major physical presence.

GOALTENDING

Alexandar Georgiev

After Colorado found themselves burned by Philipp Grubauer’s abrupt departure in the 2021 off-season, general manager Joe Sakic clearly learned from his mistakes and took a proactive approach to the team’s post-Stanley Cup free agency period. Instead of banking on talks going right with injury-prone veteran Darcy Kuemper, the Avalanche went out and dealt for a newer, younger Grubauer to take the reins for the upcoming year; for just a handful of mid-round draft picks, the team picked up New York Rangers backup Alexandar Georgiev to tandem with already-existing netminder Pavel Francouz this year.

Georgiev didn’t have the best 2021-22 campaign, posting some of the worst numbers of his career and being limited to just 33 games behind the Vezina-winning Igor Shesterkin. But despite a middling save percentage that sat considerably below the league average, Georgiev’s underlying numbers were far more reassuring for Avalanche fans – especially given the fact that he’ll see more regular starts and play behind a far more experienced defense in Colorado in comparison to what he dealt with in New York City. His game, which is far more structured positionally and depth-wise than is typical among Russian-developed goaltenders, should see a resurgence behind Colorado’s roster. And the boost of confidence that he should receive from being given a multi-year deal by Colorado could help as well; without the spectre of a possible trade constantly looming on the horizon, he could find himself feeling more comfortable and confident heading into the new season.

Projected starts: 50-55

Pavel Francouz

The Colorado Avalanche finally won their Stanley Cup – and while their goaltending was far from the most valuable performance exhibited during either the regular season or the playoffs, there’s something to be said for the consistent success that the now-32-year-old Pavel Francouz has displayed during his three years on the roster. The biggest concern for Colorado, once again, won’t be Francouz’s abilities; when he’s healthy, he’s both effective and reliable. But after missing an entire season for injury, Francouz struggled to elevate his game above the average marker last year. He didn’t post many truly poor starts, but neither did he post many truly top-tier ones, either. And as he continues to progress on the wrong side of 30, it’s hard to feel comfortable with how healthy he can stay – especially if Georgiev does need a little extra help in the new year. The Avalanche haven’t made many bad calls with their goaltending at the NHL level in the last handful of years, so there’s less worry than other teams might face with the same tandem. But even so, it’s hard to put this one-two punch down as a clear top-tier tandem for the upcoming season until they’ve proven they’re both able to be exactly what they’ve been before.

Projected starts: 35-40

NUMBERS AT WORK: How Colorado gets the most out of their defensemen

Corey Sznajder — Sat, 17 Apr 2021 13:52:10 +0000

Skating Downhill, Colorado’s defense

ST. PAUL, MN - APRIL 05: Colorado Avalanche Defenceman Samuel Girard (49) makes a pass during an NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche on April 5, 2021, at Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN. (Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

Colorado’s slow rise to the top of the NHL has been impressive to watch. They’ve always played fast, especially since drafting Nathan MacKinnon, they’ve always had high-end talent, but it took a few years for things to come together. MacKinnon went from a very good player to an elite player, Mikko Rantanen became a perfect fit on his wing, their defense went from Erik Johnson & A Bunch of Guys to one anchored by Samuel Girard & Cale Makar. Thus, they’ve been one of the top teams in the Western Conference (if we’re still calling it that) for the past two years.

They’ve made a habit out of running up the score and the shot count against almost everyone this year, controlling over 60 percent of the Expected Goals at five-on-five and averaging over three goals per 60 minutes. Stats that are comparable to the likes of the 2009-10 Chicago Blackhawks and 2007-08 Detroit Red Wings. The one team that has given Colorado trouble this year is the Vegas Golden Knights, who own a 3-3 split of the season series and are similar to the Avs in a lot of ways. Not just statistically, but stylistically.

If you’ve watched any games of these two teams, you know that they’re both fast, run-and-gun teams that like attacking off the rush. Using some of the zone entry & passing data from the All Three Zones Project, we can quantify just how good both these teams are. Unsurprisingly, they are the top two teams in the league in creating shots off the rush and among the best in the league at creating scoring chances after carrying the puck in.

Basically, they’re getting through the neutral zone and making their possessions count. Even if they’re not scoring off the rush, the strength of both teams is just how long they keep opponents pinned into their own zone. They not only lead the league in rush shots, but shots off the forecheck or the cycle, which means that they’re versatile and spending a lot of time not having to defend. Again, the volume of shots here compared to the rest of the league is something to behold.

Data from All Three Zones Project

When the game is at even strength, they’re usually the ones with the puck or controlling the run of play. The intra-divisional play is obviously a factor here, but it’s still hard not to be impressed at how both of these teams have gone about their business this year.

What stands out for Colorado is who they’ve been able to do this while dealing with a barrage of injuries, especially on their blue line. It’s been a problem all season, but the biggest challenge was when Cale Makar was out of the lineup in early March and the team was dressing as many as four AHL regulars on defense. Colorado still continued to roll teams, going 7-2-1 without Makar while also dealing with season-long injuries to likes of Bowen Byram and Erik Johnson.

What’s interesting is that some of the replacements thrived in big minutes when they were called upon, the best example being Jacob MacDonald, a 28-year-old with only two games of NHL experience to his name before this year. Starting the year on the taxi squad, he found himself contributing in big minutes alongside Girard & Toews. While some of their younger players struggled to play higher in the lineup, MacDonald remained a fixture, positing very good on-ice results and earning a regular roster spot after Makar & others got healthy. Regardless of whether or not you think MacDonald is the one driving the bus, there is something to be said about the Avs making it easy to integrate defensemen into their lineup. Just ask Ryan Graves, another AHL vet who found a home in Denver.

In theory, it should be easy for a defender to play for a team like the Avalanche. The play is usually in front of you, and everything is going downhill fast, so there’s not a lot of times where you’re in a high stress situation, especially when you’re playing behind forwards like MacKinnon & Kadri who can carry the play.

This isn’t always how the game always works, though. You’re going to have to play some shifts in your own zone & it also takes certain skills to work in a system like Colorado, because your decisions have to be quick and your passes have to be on point, otherwise you might be looking at a turnover the puck coming back at you at the same rate of speed. Yes, they control the play most games, but you have to be looking for an open play instead of banking the puck off the boards or the glass as your first option if you’re going to fit in with Colorado. This is no problem for a player like Makar or Girard. Youngsters like Byram & Timmins are still finding their way, so what has MacDonald done that made him fit in?

Jack Han illustrated some of the strengths of the Avs system here with the main component being how their D (or the first player to retrieve the puck in the defensive zone) is instructed to beat the first forechecker to create an odd-man situation up the ice. It can be by skating, a good stretch pass or a well-designed breakout with support. MacDonald might not have much NHL experience, but he has a solid offensive track record in the AHL and has adapted to the Avs system seamlessly.

You wouldn’t expect MacDonald to be among the league leaders in shots produced off the rush, but this clip shows a good example of how he’s gotten acclimated to how the Avs play. Notice how tight him & Toews are on the Kings forwards as they try to work the puck behind the goal line. They create a 2v1 for Colorado, which leads to a loose puck & a breakout for MacDonald. Meanwhile, the right winger (Burakovsky) is reading where the puck is the entire time & is already in a great position to receive the pass to exit the zone. Notice how MacDonald immediately starts skating out of the zone after making the pass to Burakovsky, this gives him a passing option after entering the zone while Brandon Saad drives the net. The Kings have to backup because MacDonald had a step on the backchecking Kings players & Colorado gets a good scoring chance out of it.

If you’ve watched any Colorado game, you’ll notice that all of their defensemen are active & involved, but they don’t always lead the rush like you see Roman Josi or Miro Heiskanen do. Instead, they act more as a trailer while their forwards do most of the legwork up the ice. You could argue it’s better to have your D involved like this because the whole point of having them involved is to create a numerical advantage at the line or in the offensive zone. If the defender is leading the rush, usually a forward has to stay back or stationary at the line to cover. If they’re activating as a trailer like MacDonald in the clip above, it’s usually a reaction to three forwards getting caught deep or a situation where the player knows there’s an opening they can exploit. When broadcasters say a defenseman has the “green light,” this is what they mean.

This also applies to cycling the puck & attacking from high to low in the offensive zone. Every team wants their team to be aggressive & having their defense pinch to keep pucks alive or disrupt exits is nothing ground-breaking. How Colorado’s defense works in rotation with their forwards, however, is another story. What separates the Avs (and Vegas) from some other teams that like to attack off the rush is that they have a forecheck/cycle component to their game that is tough to defend. They like to cycle the puck high, have their forwards rotate with their defensemen often & try to create space down low or in the slot through deception or defenders getting lost with all the player movement going on up high. Sometimes they’ll have a defenseman loop out of the zone for a quick second, so there’s enough space for him to skate into a shot around a defender from the faceoff circle. It’s easier to play in the offensive zone, but it requires a lot of coordination, smarts & teamwork to execute it the right way. One could argue it’s tougher than breakouts or defending, because a misplay or a bad pass high in the zone is one way to giftwrap a breakaway for the other team.

Watch Girard (left) & Toews (right) read off what the forwards do. At first, it looks like Toews is trying a give & go play with the high forward, but Rantanen sends the puck into an open corner & Toews has to back off while MacKinnon retrieves the puck & goes up high. Look at all the space that opens up while MacKinnon carries the puck & makes the switch with Rantanen. Toews has to leave the zone for a split second & takes advantage of the open space created by the forwards to get a scoring chance. He gets a second chance because MacKinnon stays high & the Blues have to change personnel when they finally get possession of the puck. Colorado’s defense is known for dancing with the puck & doing spin-o-ramas to get away from attacking forwards and while those are fun to watch, the subtle, off-puck plays are just as effective. It’s also a reason why Toews is a 24-minute a night player in Colorado instead of just second pair/power play weapon that he was perceived as with the Islanders.

Sometimes the defense activating serves as a distraction.

The forward, Compher (37) and the defenseman, Timmins (22) are the ones to watch here. Nothing really special happens here except Timmins goes to retrieve a loose puck along the boards. Compher goes up high to cover for him & then immediately goes to the front of the net while all three Blues forwards are fixated on what’s going up on high. Compher ends up unmarked in front of the net & scores off the rebound of Timmins shot. The Blues might have gambled with trying to block the shot or kill the play at the point, but it’s always risky to do this against the Avs, even if it is their fourth line. Timmins is one of the few blue liners who has had a tougher learning curve compared to others, so it will be interesting to see how he improves in this system, especially with the team relatively healthy on defense now.

When your depth players are creating situations like this, it’s usually a good sign. Colorado checks most of the boxes for a contender, so their playoff fate is going to rest on their goaltending and how they respond to mistakes. Colorado can play this style better than any team in the league and it’s tough to defend if they’re on their game. It’s just that there are moments where things go haywire & even with Colorado’s improved defense, there’s going to be a few slip-ups because that’s just the nature of the beast. They learned that the hard way in last year’s playoff run with their Murphy’s Law type of run of injuries. The Avs already survived one injury spell, using almost every defenseman in their system, and came out stronger on the other side. Still not fully healthy, this defense corps has been battle tested more than almost any other team this year and the Avs have done a great job of fitting everyone in.

Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick & All Three Zones Project

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY HOCKEY POINTS 3/24/21 – Colorado Love Letter

Scott Cullen — Wed, 24 Mar 2021 19:08:44 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, it’s practically a love letter to the recent performances by the Colorado Avalanche but also notes on Johnny Gaudreau, Mathew Barzal, Josh Morrissey, and more.

20 POINTS ON FANTASY HOCKEY

DENVER, CO - JANUARY 26: Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) skates during a game between the San Jose Sharks and the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado on January 26, 2021. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Nathan MacKinnon returned to the Colorado Avalanche lineup two weeks ago. In eight games since, the Avalanche have allowed league-low 5-on-5 score-and-venue adjusted shot attempts (40.4 per 60), shots (20.4 per 60), and expected goals (1.44). They rank fourth in goals against per 60 (1.39) over that period. The Tampa Bay Lightning are not far behind either.

#2 So why am I throwing team defensive numbers at you? Because when you are streaming players into your fantasy lineup it makes sense to, at all costs, avoid matchups against Colorado and Tampa Bay right now. They are smothering the opposition.

#3 Colorado also leads the league in the offensive categories over the past couple of weeks, too. Shot attempts (76.7 per 60), shots (43.0 per 60), expected goals (3.19 per 60) and goals (4.02 per 60) are all ranked No. 1. The shot rates are preposterous. No other team has more than 66 shot attempts or 34 shots on goal per 60 minutes and the Avalanche are far above those thresholds.

#4 Among 233 players that have played at least 400 5-on-5 minutes, the Avalanche have players ranked second through sixth when it comes to allowing the fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes – Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews, Gabriel Landeskog, and Samuel Girard. The only player with a lower rate of shot attempts against per 60 minutes compared to those five Avs is New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes.

#5 That big line for the Avalanche is absurdly dominant. They are getting 66.1% of shot attempts for the season. The next best lines (minimum 100 5-on-5 minutes) are Boston’s Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-David Pastrnak (64.9%), Toronto’s Joe Thornton-Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner (61.9%), Florida’s Carter Verhaeghe-Aleksander Barkov-Anthony Duclair (61.9%) and Montreal’s Tomas Tatar-Phillip Danault-Brendan Gallagher (61.6%).

Calgary Flames Left Wing Johnny Gaudreau (13) (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire)

#6 Since Darryl Sutter has taken over behind the Calgary Flames bench, left winger Johnny Gaudreau has two goals, zero assists and a dozen shots on goal in seven games. He ranks 12^th among Calgary skaters in individual expected goals per 60 (0.50) and Brett Ritchie is the only regular with a lower rate of expected goals (0.46) and he is not far behind.

#7 In six games since his left winger Anders Lee suffered a season-ending knee injury, Islanders center Mathew Barzal has zero goals and two assists with 10 shots on goal. The Islanders are presumably looking for some help to fill that hole on the trade market because, not counting Lee and Jordan Eberle, these are the forwards who have played most with Barzal this season: Josh Bailey, Kieffer Bellow, Anthony Beauvillier, Leo Komarov, Cal Clutterbuck, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau.

#8 Winnipeg Jets defenseman Josh Morrissey is having an interesting season. During 5-on-5 play, he is on the ice for 44.9% of shot attempts and 42.5% of expected goals yet, individually, he is generating a career-high 2.1 shots on goal per game and his 0.50 points per game is consistent with his production in the past two seasons. Morrissey has also been on the ice for 3.01 expected goals per 60, the highest rate among defensemen that have played at least 300 5-on-5 minutes.

#9 While I suggested avoiding matchups with Colorado and Tampa Bay, there are obviously some teams on the other end of the spectrum, the teams that should be targeted for matchups. First look goes to the Philadelphia Flyers and it’s not as though the Flyers are hopelessly lost but they can’t stop the puck. In the past two weeks, the Flyers are allowing 4.79 goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play. That is close to a goal per 60 minutes worse than the 30^th-ranked Anaheim Ducks (3.85) and nearly 50% worse than the 29^th-ranked Ottawa Senators (3.20).

#10 Philadelphia’s 5-on-5 save percentage in the past two weeks is .797. Anaheim (.874) and Toronto (.894) are the next worst. Until Carter Hart or Brian Elliott get sorted out, there is no reason to shy away from matchups against the Flyers.

#11 John Gibson got off to a strong start for the Ducks, posting a .919 save percentage in his first 14 starts, but he started to fade under the weight of a heavy shot volume and had an .856 save percentage in his last nine starts before getting hurt. Ryan Miller (.880 SV%) has not stemmed the tide of goals against for Anaheim.

#12 With Frederik Andersen struggling before his recent injury, this could be the opportunity for Jack Campbell to earn a bigger role with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Campbell has had his own health issues but does have a .934 save percentage in 10 starts since he joined the Maple Leafs last season.

#13 Acquired in last season’s trade that sent Sami Vatanen to Carolina, New Jersey Devils winger Janne Kuokkanen has started to emerge as one of the Devils’ better young forwards. He has seven points (4 G, 3 A) in the past eight games and his 2.61 points/60 ranks second on the Devils, just behind Travis Zajac (2.62). Kuokkanen’s shot rate is still not ideal but his production is helping to earn him more ice time and who knows what his role could be down the stretch for a rebuilding Devils team?

#14 There are nine defensemen in the league right now that have played at least 300 5-on-5 minutes and have generated more than 1.50 points per 60 minutes. The first two are from Washington (John Carlson and Nick Jensen), the next two from Vegas (Nicolas Hague and Shea Theodore), the next duo from Edmonton (Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie) and then Colorado’s Sam Girard, Arizona’s Jakob Chychrun, and New Jersey’s Ty Smith finish up the top nine.

#15 In the past month, Nashville goaltender Juuse Saros has posted a .968 save percentage in six starts. This after he had a .882 save percentage in his first 10 appearances of the season. The season may be drifting away from the Predators – or maybe not, they are only four points behind Chicago for the fourth playoff spot in the Central Division – but if Saros gets hot that could help Nashville close the gap. He also has a history of coming on strong after a slow start – last season he had a .895 save percentage before the All-Star break and .936 after.

Aaron Ekblad #5 of the Florida Panthers (Eliot J. Schechter/NHLI via Getty Images)

#16 Florida Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad has been thrust into the power play spotlight this season, playing 3:46 per game with the man advantage, nearly a minute more per game than his previous career high and 2:18 more per game than last season when he played a career-low 1:28 per game on the power play. As a result, Ekblad has already tied his previous career high with six power play goals, set during his rookie season in 2014-2015.

#17 Coming into the season, Blues center Brayden Schenn was a pretty good candidate for regression after his shot rates declined last season, but it was masked by his scoring on a career-high 18.1% of his shots. He is still scoring on 17.1% of his shots this season but Schenn has hit a dry spell with no points and just two shots on goal in the past five games. That’s remarkably little production for someone averaging 19:35 time on ice in those five games but this could merely be a case of some overdue regression catching up to Schenn.

#18 The Boston Bruins seem like prime candidates to add scoring forwards before the trade deadline because they are having such a difficult time scoring goals – Buffalo, Nashville, and Detroit are the only teams with a lower 5-on-5 scoring rate than Boston’s 1.98 goals/60. Since Boston’s top line can still generate offense, the trouble seems to be on the second and third lines. For example, Charlie Coyle has zero points and five shots on goal, while playing nearly 17 minutes per game, in the past eight games. Coyle is not a star but had seven straight seasons with at least 30 points coming into this season and is sitting on just eight points (5 G, 3 A) in 27 games. His shot attempts, shot, and expected goal rates are all at career lows.

#19 One last Avs note for this week. Defenseman Jacob MacDonald is a 28-year-old who had played all of two NHL games prior to this season but injuries on the Colorado blueline opened the door for MacDonald and while he does not play a lot (16:41 ATOI), MacDonald has had outstanding results. Among defensemen to play at least 200 5-on-5 minutes, MacDonald ranks first in on-ice Corsi For/60 (71.0) and first in on-ice Corsi Against/60 (40.4), leaving him with a 63.8 CF%. The next best, non-Colorado defenseman is Boston’s Matt Grzelcyk at 59.1 CF%.

MacDonald played at Cornell, was not drafted, and climbed the ladder of pro hockey, starting in the ECHL and has been in the Devils and Panthers organizations before landing in Colorado.

#20 Bruins defenseman Matt Grzelcyk has had trouble staying healthy but has six points (1 G, 5 A) in nine games since returning to the lineup and, maybe more interestingly, has seen his ice time bump up over 22 minutes per game in the past three games, recording 17 shots on goal in those three games.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick