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Review: The Bruins had a season to remember, for better and worse. They finished with a 65-12-5 record, shattering the previous wins record of 62, held by Detroit (95-96) and Tampa Bay (18-19). The Bruins’ 135 points also broke the 1976-77 Canadiens’ record of 132. Boston’s historic season was thanks in no small part to David Pastrnak, who scored 61 goals and 113 points, but he had the backing of an amazing forward cast that included Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, Pavel Zacha, David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk – each of which hit the 50-point milestone. Speaking of that mark, Boston had the luxury of icing two defensemen who recorded over 50 points in Hampus Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy. To ice the cake, Linus Ullmark put forth a Vezina Trophy-winning season. However, all those amazing accomplishments merely led to a first-round exit against Florida, despite the Bruins having taken a 3-1 series lead.
What’s Changed? Making that exit playoff worse is that it was the last hurrah for Bergeron and Krejci, who both retired over the summer. The Bruins also watched midseason acquisition Tyler Bertuzzi sign with the division rival Maple Leafs while Taylor Hall was dealt to Chicago. Up against the cap, Boston couldn’t make any major signings to fill those holes, though they did sign forwards James van Riemsdyk and Milan Lucic as well as defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk to one-year, $1 million contracts in the hopes that they might be worthwhile depth pieces.
What would success look like? A lot of people will be quick to dismiss the Bruins after their difficult summer, but Boston still has an elite defense and an amazing goaltending tandem in Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. That alone could make them competitive, but when you combine that with one of the league’s top forwards in Pastrnak and complement him with the likes of Zacha, DeBrusk, Charlie Coyle and especially Marchand, this is a team that could still potentially win 50 games and maybe even turn some heads in the playoffs.
What could go wrong? Then again, Boston is looking awfully thin up the middle without Bergeron and Krejci while their bottom-six is arguably the worst it’s been in years. Marchand is tough, but he’s also 35 and has something of an injury history, which puts even more pressure on Pastrnak. Additionally, while Ullmark has been a great goaltender for years, his 2022-23 campaign was far and away the best we’ve ever seen him, so there’s some risk there of moderate regression, which combined with the anticipated decline in Boston’s offense, could be enough to push the Bruins into mediocrity.
Top Breakout Candidate: That’s part of the problem: Boston is short on promising young players to help fill the void. Jakub Lauko is at least worth keeping an eye on because he might get a chance to serve as one of Boston’s top-two centers, which would be a golden opportunity, but he might lack the offensive upside to get that role or take advantage of it if he’s put in that position. Fabian Lysell will have a comparatively harder time cracking the lineup, but his offensive potential is significantly higher.
When Auston Matthews scored his 60th goal of the season in April of 2022, he was the first to join the 60-Goal Club since Steven Stamkos in 2012. Last season, we had two new members of the club, one being David Pastrnak. The Czech entered the 73rd game of the season with 49 goals before going on a run of 12 goals in 10 games. Add 52 assists to his goal total and he sat third in the NHL in points last season. As with most great goal scorers, Pastrnak is particularly lethal on the powerplay. While earlier in his career he relied on his finishing to score powerplay goals, Pastrnak now has a quantity over quality approach to scoring. His 45.3 total shot attempts per 60 rate has a sizeable gap to the next most frequent powerplay shooter in Patrik Laine at 37.6. Pastrnak was also fed the benefit of playing with more passive players last season, giving him the space to possess and make plays. He resumed his chemistry with now retired David Krejci, and made new connections with Pavel Zacha and Tyler Bertuzzi. The Perfection Line is no longer, as David Pastrnak is carving out his new chapter of legacy in Boston.
The 2022-23 season began with Brad Marchand out of the Bruins lineup with a hip injury. With an initial timeline of a late November return, Marchand was declared ready to play on November 1st when the Bruins took on the Penguins in Pittsburgh. The Nova Scotian would finish the season without missing much extra time, playing 73 games for the black and gold. However, he wasn’t quite the Marchand we’ve become accustomed to. In a season when scoring was up, Marchand recorded less than a point per game for the first time since 2015-16. And his 21 goals were tied for the fewest he’s scored since becoming a regular NHL player. Now thirty-five years of age, this feels like a key moment in the last part of Marchand’s career. Was this last season an unlucky season, or has he declined to a lower level – perhaps explained by the hip injury. Despite having a down year, the Bruins coaching staff did not reduce his role. He still played a similar number of even strength, powerplay, and shorthanded minutes as the year before. Maybe that means the Bruins feel he was a bit unlucky. Plus, Marchand’s bad year was still very good. But given his age, any sign of regression should be a warning of what may be to come.
Last summer, the New Jersey Devils traded the rights to Pavel Zacha to Boston in exchange for Erik Haula. The two parties came to an agreement on a one-year contract extension. The 2015 sixth overall pick hadn’t found the success he wanted yet, with a career-high of 36 points and bouncing between center and wing. At 6’ 4”, Zacha has the size and strength to be a rugged center, but he’s in fact more of a gentle giant. With Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and Charlie Coyle taking on the center duties in the top nine, Zacha was able to ease his way into his chapter in Boston. As the least known member of the Czech Mates, Zacha was able to play to the left of fellow countrymen David Krejci and David Pastrnak. While the Bruins wanted Zacha to shoot more often in a Bruins uniform, it didn’t work out as such. He ranked 321st of 371 skaters who played 500 minutes or more at 5-on-5 last season. But a career-high shooting percentage, along with a high on-ice shooting percentage, led to career-highs in both goals and assists. A large portion of his even strength assists were secondary, something that carries significantly more variance year-to-year. The Bruins extended Zacha to a four-year contract in January in hopes that he can fill the role of Patrice Bergeron. While he’s not expected to come close to the Hall of Fame level of the Bruins legend, he is expected to be the top offensive center, playing the bumper on the powerplay and killing off penalties as well.
During the 2021-22 season, Jake DeBrusk requested a trade out of Boston. With the rights to the 2015 14th overall pick controlled by the Bruins, the two parties made a deal to come to an agreement on a contract that would take him to unrestricted free agency in 2024. With the coaching change in the summer of 2022, DeBrusk rescinded that request and focused on the upcoming season. While spending time in his earlier career bouncing in between the left and right wings on the second and third lines, DeBrusk found a home to the right of Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand in the latter half of the 2021-22 season, and Jim Montgomery continued down this path. His success in the role can partially be attributed to the talent he was playing with, but also his ability to play faster and be the dominant player in transition. DeBrusk is great at recovering pucks on the boards and playing in tight places, which is why he handles net front duties on the powerplay, but he is exemplary off the rush. Being able to pressure opposing defensemen with the surety that he had that his teammates would cover for him was the blessing that took him from good to great. DeBrusk would’ve likely scored 30 goals last season if it wasn’t for an injury that he endured during the Winter Classic where he scored both Bruins goals in their 2-1 win. DeBrusk was someone who has shown considerably more success with Bergeron than without him, so one should be cautious of his upcoming season alongside Charlie Coyle, Pavel Zacha, or another center.
When he is not posting pictures of his golden retrievers online, Charlie Coyle can be found playing center for the Boston Bruins. Just like his dogs, he adds a nice bite to the middle of the Bruins lineup. At 6-foot-3, Coyle is hard to knock off the puck. When Jim Montgomery came in and installed some puck possession driven adjustments, Coyle was one to benefit from that. Spending much of his season alongside Trent Frederic, who had a breakout season in a new position, the pair would be a pain point for opposing defensemen, attacking off of turnovers created from textbook forechecking. And while he wasn’t one to create offense off the rush, Coyle used his skating abilities to be one of the better Bruins when it came to transitioning the puck. The Weymouth native is a dependable piece for Boston. He has played 82 games in each of the last two seasons, scoring 16 goals in each season as well. His one additional secondary assist in 2022-23 is what ruins the pattern. But beyond knowing what you are getting out of Coyle, the prospect of more being there is what excites the Bruins. With Bergeron and Krejci injured in their now infamous first round series against the Panthers, Coyle filled in as a dominant top-six center when it counted. With the role largely up for grabs this season, the Bruins are hoping that he takes it.
When the Bruins opened up the 2022-23 season in Washington, Trent Frederic was a healthy scratch. The former first round pick had only accumulated 23 points in 119 career games. After the Bruins took a win in their opening game, Frederic made his way back into the lineup for the home opener against the Arizona Coyotes. After recording an assist and a fight, Frederic would stay in the lineup for the next game against Florida, where he would go on to score his first goal of the season. From then on, Frederic was a regular in the Bruins lineup, ending the year with 17 goals and 14 assists – the latter two of which surpassed his career total heading into the season. Drafted as a center out of the USNDTP and spending some time as a left wing in his professional career, the 24-year-old took on the last available forward position as a right wing. Spending 73% of his 5-on-5 time to the right of Charlie Coyle, Frederic found his groove, particularly with attacking off of the forecheck. The question is, will he be able to build off of last season, or revert back to his old ways. He had an uncharacteristically high individual and on-ice shooting percentage, a caution flag for those expecting him to repeat his performance. Furthermore, the Bruins may need more special teams time out of him this season with the departures of Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and Taylor Hall. He has not been a regular member of either the powerplay of penalty kill thus far in his career. Although excited, the Bruins will remain cautious of the 6’ 3” forward, and it will be up to him to prove to the world that he is the same player as last season.
Just before the pandemic hit, Morgan Geekie made his debut for the Carolina Hurricanes, recording three goals and an assist in a pair of games before the stoppage. He returned to the Hurricanes for the shortened 2021 season, playing a depth role for Carolina. However, Carolina would leave him unprotected in the expansion draft where Ron Francis, the general manager who drafted him in 2017, would snatch him up. Geekie would work his way through a pair of one-year contracts in Seattle, playing in a depth role. The Kraken had opted to operate a unique fourth line, substituting the stereotypical grit with lower-end speed and skill with the likes of Ryan Donato, Daniel Sprong, and Morgan Geekie. In the Kraken’s disastrous inaugural season, Morgan Geekie saw some time on the second powerplay unit, but with a stronger roster last season, he saw that time slip away. He managed to record nine goals and 19 assists in 69 games in his depth role, but the 25-year-old has headed to Boston for a bigger role. He will likely slot in on the third line, either at center or on the right wing, and look to work his way up from
When the clock ticked down to zero on trade deadline day in March, the rebuilding Flyers were left with pending unrestricted free agent James van Riemsdyk on their roster. The 14-year veteran is at an all-time low in popularity – something Chuck Fletcher potentially underestimated. Outside of shortened seasons due to injuries or outside circumstances, his 12 goals and 17 assists were career-lows. At 34 years of age, The 6’ 3” forward is trying to milk the last bit of hockey out of himself. Unable to match the speed of much younger players, JvR utilizes both a skilled set of hands and a high level of intelligence to make an impact. He should be able to make himself useful on the powerplay, likely as the net front player on the second unit with a healthy roster. With proper deployment at even strength, perhaps he could have a small revival in his last stage of his career. The New Jersey native spent the majority of his even strength time next to Morgan Frost last season. While Frost showed some positive signs in the closing stages of the season, he has largely struggled over the course of his professional career thus far. With a boost in the quality of his linemates, and with a more offensively focused coaching staff, van Riemsdyk could have a bounce back year in Boston. However, it is unlikely he will return to the production pace he had earlier in his career.
there. He may also earn a spot on the second powerplay unit and see some penalty killing time as well. The Bruins are excited to see what Geekie can do in a bigger role. They saw the two-year contract that they handed out as a low-risk opportunity to be the ones who will possess his rights when the world finds out. Geekie’s skating abilities are the limiting factor, but the Bruin coaches will look to help him over that hump.
The 16th overall pick in the 2016 NHL Draft entered the 2022-23 season on long-term injured reserve. Come November 10th, McAvoy was back in the Bruins lineup, scoring the game-winning goal in a 3-1 win over the Calgary Flames. He would go on to score six more goals and 45 assists, four points shy of his career-high in 11 fewer games. The departure of Torey Krug in 2020 and addition of Hampus Lindholm in the spring of 2022 had led to a change in allocation of Charlie McAvoy’s minutes. Last season, McAvoy played 2.3 fewer 5-on-5 minutes per game than in 2019-20 but played 1.3 more powerplay minutes per game. He recorded 20 more points last season than in 2019-20, 17 of that 20-point difference coming from the powerplay. With another number one defenseman playing on another pair, and a new coach that preaches puck possession and active defensemen, we are seeing Charlie McAvoy’s offense blossom in front of our eyes. He was 12th among defensemen with at least 500 minutes in points per 60 last season, and there’s no reason to believe we shouldn’t expect more of the same this season.
The Swedish defenseman lost market value in Anaheim after injuries and a few underwhelming seasons left some uncertainty over which Hampus Lindholm one should expect to see. The Bruins had no doubt in their mind, signing him to a long-term extension immediately after acquiring him at the 2022 deadline. When the 2022-23 season opened up, Lindholm got his chance to be the star on the back end with McAvoy sitting in the press box. He shined in that first month and beyond, racking up Norris Trophy votes by the end of the season. With defensive-defenseman Brandon Carlo as his anchor, and a new system that encourages defensemen to join the rush, Lindholm excelled beyond even the Bruins expectations. He has the size and skating of a top pairing defenseman, but the comfort in close spaces and offensive vision of a centerman. That combination not only helped Lindholm notch 53 points last season, but log 179 minutes on the penalty kill as well. With the Bruins playing very little from behind last season, we didn’t get to see how much the Bruins may utilize Lindholm and McAvoy playing together. But with the Bruins being worse this season, the two could find a way to juice their box score stats when playing from behind even more.
After winning a Stanley Cup with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020, Kevin Shattenkirk signed with the Anaheim Ducks. Over the course of his three seasons there, he only missed eight of 220 games despite his age. Now thirty-four, Shattenkirk is returning to the city where he played his college hockey on a one-year deal. When playing on such a poor hockey team, it can be tough to grasp how much of his poor performance is due to external factors and how much may be an aging player. Shattenkirk’s 27 points in 75 games strikes the disappointment of his last season prior to being bought out by the New York Rangers where he had 28 points in 73 games. Last season he spent 40% of his 5-on-5 time with Simon Benoit, an undrafted 24-year-old defenseman who has had unremarkable results to start his professional career. In Boston, Shattenkirk will have far less responsibility, and will have a reliable pro as a partner in Derek Forbort. With a healthy lineup, he’ll be expected to fill a small role on the third pair, waiting for a spot to open up in front of him.
The undersized defenseman from Charlestown finished his sixth full season with the Boston Bruins with a career-high in points at 26. Grzelcyk has been part of a small group of defensemen creating their own mold in the NHL. Perhaps best described as a transition defenseman, Grzelcyk is strong at breaking out the puck, keeping the puck alive in the offensive zone, and defending zone entries. This style helps tilt the ice in his team’s favor. However, he doesn’t have the individual offensive skills like his partner Charlie McAvoy to find himself on the score sheet more often. When Torey Krug left, Matt Grzelcyk was the man who got the call for the first powerplay unit. But after a failed experiment in 2021 and 2022, Grzlecyk saw his special teams time disappear last season. Following the acquisition of Dmitry Orlov at the trade deadline, Grzelcyk and Connor Clifton were the rotating healthy scratches in the playoffs. The risk of Grzelcyk getting his time cut towards the end of the season is likely very low this year as the Bruins don’t expect to be as strong again.
The 6’ 6” defenseman was one of the few Bruins that didn’t have a breakout offensive season in their record-breaking President’s Trophy campaign. He stuck to the dependable defensive style that brought him into his second pairing role years ago. While his three goals and 13 assists didn’t light up the score sheet to say the least, the Bruins did get a bit more activation out of Carlo off the rush and in the offensive zone. He fit into the system enough to keep plays alive and in the offensive zone, helping to boost his defensive performance more than anything. As has been the case, he was a staple on the Bruins penalty kill, logging more than 200 shorthanded minutes for the fifth time in his career. He also started 14% of his shifts in the defensive zone at 5-on-5, more than any other Bruin defenseman. However, for a defenseman who takes on the hardest minutes, he blocks strikingly few shots, ranking just 85th in defensemen with 500 minutes in blocked shots per 60 last season. With limited options on the right side, and his steady defensive play, you can count on Carlo to log minutes for the Bruins next season. Just don’t expect him to record more than 25 points.
Goaltending
It’s probable there are few goaltenders heading into the 2023-24 season with bigger chips on their shoulders than Jeremy Swayman. After one of the league’s most impressive breakout seasons, Swayman was one-half of the most formidable goaltending tandem in the entire NHL during his 2022-23 campaign. Then, in the first round of the postseason, he had to sit on the sidelines and watch as the team doggedly left Vezina winner Linus Ullmark out to dry against a Florida Panthers roster that used a goaltending switch to revive their play and commit the upset of the playoffs. Swayman then entered an off-season that saw Boston take his contract negotiations all the way to arbitration; he’ll start this year on a one-year deal instead of with a contract that would lock him in as a part of the team for the foreseeable future.
The Bruins will struggle to be seen as a powerhouse this year with the departure of both captain Patrice Bergeron and second-line center David Krejci over the summer, so it will be even more crucial that the team get picture-perfect goaltending performances from both Ullmark and Swayman. In theory, that’s easy to feel confident in. Swayman in particular is still young, put up repeatedly good performances over both of his full NHL campaigns to date, and plays a game that demands shooters bring the game in close and show their hands before he comes to life. But he struggled to come back to form after an injury at the start of the season, which ultimately cost him the ability to put up a true tandem season with Ullmark; he’ll need to be even better this year if he wants to remain a member of the black and gold moving forward. It remains in Boston’s best interest to keep their elite tandem for as long as they can, but cap constraints could find them forced to sell one of their two talented netminders at the end of the year. After their first year working together, it was hard to imagine Boston choosing Swayman as the odd man out – but if both goaltenders put up the same numbers this year that they did in 2023, Ullmark seems like the more logical option to keep on hand. Swayman still needs to prove that he can dazzle when forced to pull out his most creative saves to prove that he’s got franchise cornerstone-level staying power.
Projected starts: 40-45
Last season was a bittersweet performance for Linus Ullmark in Boston. During the regular season, he was a part of the best tandem in the NHL – and he was the better half of that tandem, earning him a Vezina trophy and the team’s full confidence during the postseason. But then the postseason hit, and Ullmark went from hot to cold seemingly every other night against the Florida Panthers. It may have been nerves, it could have been the fault of a nagging injury that was ultimately revealed following the team’s elimination in the first round – but whatever the reason, Ullmark looked skittish and a little slow on the recovery after first stops through the six-game series.
The real question for Ullmark this year likely won’t be whether or not he’s capable of repeating his stellar performance from the two years prior. Although he needed a quick learning curve following his departure from the Buffalo Sabres, the Swedish-born netminder has proven over his tenure in Boston that he’s a powerful skater who reads his opponents well and has stellar rebound control that can keep the puck in action and turn the play back up the ice. It’s impossible to debate, no matter how to try to spin it, that he’s a valuable asset for Boston to have on the ice. The question for Ullmark, rather, is going to be how he’ll be utilized during the year. There’s a non-zero chance that the Bruins will move Swayman out in hopes of recouping value after struggling to come to an agreement on his contract this summer, and it’s unlikely that anyone in the Bruins system currently would be able to tandem as seamlessly with Ullmark as Swayman has been able to. That would leave Ullmark playing a heavier workload if the team does try to change things up with their lineup – and while his technique is consistent and hard to rattle him out of, Ullmark’s style of play lends itself to fatigue more than Swayman’s. Boston’s current lineup doesn’t look as lethal as the one they set league records with last year, but the postseason could become an achilles heel for Ullmark if he enters it overworked.
Projected starts: 40-45
]]>Trevor Zegras
One of the most exciting players in the league, the 21-year-old center exudes creativity when he is on the ice, regularly attempting – and succeeding – lacrosse-style goals, making between the legs shots and passes and that makes him highly marketable. It also earned him an invite to All-Star Weekend, just so he could put on a show, but for all of his audacity with the puck, Zegras can still develop a more complete game as he moves towards his peak years. One notable area for improvement is in the faceoff circle, as he won just 39.9% of his draws last season. Zegras was the runner-up in Rookie of the Year voting after scoring 61 points in 75 games, finishing the season with 17 points in his last 18 games, and he is going to be expected to carry a big portion of the offensive load for Anaheim, at least when it comes to playmaking. While it would be tempting to envision Zegras as a premier scorer as soon as this season, he is not there yet, so 70 points would still be a strong output in his second full NHL season.

Troy Terry
The skilled winger erupted for a career-high 37 goals and 67 points in 2021-2022, having never scored more than 20 points in any previous season. He is not likely to continue scoring on more than 19% of his shots, as he did last season, but Terry did increase his shot volume and that offers a more sustainable path to increased production. Terry has remarkably few hits – 18 in 204 career games – and yet has established his credentials as both a finisher and a quality two-way winger. The biggest challenge might be finding the same kind of chemistry that he had with the now-retired center Ryan Getzlaf. Terry is a fascinating case when it comes to projections because last season’s scoring was so far beyond anything that he had done before in the NHL, yet he was scoring at an impressive clip in college and the American Hockey League, before reaching the NHL It’s reasonable to suspect that he will not score 37 goals and 67 points, but how far will he regress? 55-60 points seems a reasonable range.
Adam Henrique
Even though he has won at least 55.0% of his faceoffs in each of the past three seasons, Henrique has been playing more on the wing at this point in his career. The 32-year-old is a five-time 20-goal scorer who tallied 19 goals in 58 games last season. His 2.43 shots on goal per game last season was a career high. The veteran forward has improved his ability to drive play in recent seasons and he is an above average finisher, scoring on better than 15% of his shots on goal over the course of his career and never recording a full season with a shooting percentage under 12%. Henrique’s name lands in trade rumors quite a bit but the Ducks have plenty of reason to keep a proven veteran scorer to help ease the pressure on their younger talent. Even if Henrique could contribute 20 goals and 40 points that would have some value.
Ryan Strome
Signed as a free agent to anchor the Ducks’ second line, Strome is coming off the third season of his career during which he recorded at least 50 points, and he had a career-high 21 goals. He struggles in the faceoff circle, winning 45.3% of draws for his career. Strome has enjoyed his greatest success when skating on a line with star winger Artemi Panarin, and it might be difficult to find that kind of talent on the Ducks roster. Strome, 29, is not especially fast or strong, so he stands out with a heady approach to the game and solid playmaking. Strome might find it difficult to score as much in Anaheim, without having a star like Artemi Panarin on his wing, but a 45-point season should still be within his reach.
Frank Vatrano
Although he fell out of the Florida Panthers’ lineup last season, Vatrano thrived upon being traded to the New York Rangers, scoring eight goals and 13 points with 56 shots on goal in 22 games. The 28-year-old winger has been a strong shot generator for much of his career and while the sturdy winger is not the fastest skater, he is also not afraid to bang bodies on the forecheck and go to the high traffic areas necessary to get scoring chances. Vatrano should find a spot in Anaheim’s top six, which will provide an opportunity that is practically unprecedented in his career for him to play significant minutes and continue putting pucks on net. While Vatrano was with the Rangers last season, he played 71:30 with Ryan Strome during 5-on-5 play and the results were disastrous, including 34.2% Corsi and 36.2% of expected goals. Vatrano has never scored 40 points in an NHL season and that may not change this season, but he should be counted on to contribute 15-20 goals.
Isac Lundestrom
Although the 22-year-old has taken some time to establish his credentials as a full-time NHL player, he did have something of a breakthrough season in 2021-2022, scoring a career high 16 goals and 29 points. Some of that production was inflated by Lundestrom scoring on a career high 19.3% of his shots on goal, but it was a sign of progress and Lundestrom has room to improve offensively. Defensively, he is mature beyond his years and is already a reliable checking center, though like other Ducks centers, Lundestrom struggles in the faceoff dot, winning 45.0% of his faceoffs throughout his career. As the Ducks embark on a rebuilding process, Lundestrom’s development as a third-line center ought to be a priority. Maybe Lundestrom’s shooting percentage will fall, and his track record indicates that there is a definite ceiling on how much he will score, but he could still challenge for 30 points with some positive regression related to his on-ice shooting percentage.
Maxime Comtois
A power forward who has some skill and is eager to play a physical role, Comtois is coming off a down season in which his ice time, goal and point production all collapsed. It was a surprising development after he had 33 points in 55 games the year before. The 23-year-old was substantially better in 2020-2021, going hard to the net and finding soft spots in the defense so that he would be in scoring position. He opened the 2021-2022 season with zero points in his first 11 games and the season never really got on track after that because Comtois’ ice time was cut, and he was left scrambling as he tried to catch up. He has shown that he can be a contributor at this level, but he is now in the position of trying to recapture that early career success, so there is some element of pressure on him going into the 2022-2023 season. If Comtois can stay in the lineup, he could contribute 15 goals and 30-plus points and he has the tools to provide even more if he finds the right fit in the Ducks lineup.
Jakob Silfverberg
A blood clot limited the 31-year-old winger to 53 games last season, and he managed just five goals, scoring on a career-low 4.2% of his shots on goal. Throughout his career, Silfverberg has been a reliable shot generator who has four 20-goal seasons to his credit. Combined with a quality defensive game, he has been a solid middle six winger for close to a decade, playing at least 16:57 per game for seven straight seasons, but his offensive production has started to wane, and health has become more of an issue in recent seasons. On a young Ducks squad, however, there should be a role for a healthy Silfverberg, but considering how his past two seasons have gone, don’t expect more than 30 points.
Max Jones
A torn pectoral muscle meant that Jones saw action in just two games last season, which was not ideal for his development, but the 24-year-old has shown that he can be an effective depth winger, albeit one that has managed 28 points in 137 career games. From the Ducks’ perspective, they would like to get Jones healthy and then maybe find out if he has enough skill to hold a role in the top nine. He has played 13:56 per game in his career but the lack of production in those minutes suggests that Jones still has something to prove if he is going to receive that much ice time. So far, his top end is a dozen points in a season so if he could produce 20 points and stay healthy, that would have to be considered progress. Jones can be a physical presence – he has 184 hits in 107 games over the past three seasons – and he will fight, too, but if his career is going to have any staying power, he needs to stay healthy and contribute something offensively.
John Klingberg
Following a disappointing offseason in which he could not find a suitable long-term contract as a free agent, the 30-year-old right-handed power play quarterback signed a one-year, $7 million contract with the Ducks, which feels a lot like a make-good deal for a blueliner who still generates offense at an elite level, but whose defensive play has declined in recent seasons. Klingberg has played more than 22 minutes per game for seven consecutive seasons and has 97 power play points since 2017-2018, which ranks seventh among NHL defensemen. He should give the Ducks power play a boost this season, at least until he gets shopped to a contender before the trade deadline, and if he produces 45 points that would set Klingberg up to cash in as a free agent next summer.
Cam Fowler
A reliable veteran defenseman who is not outstanding at any one thing but does a lot of things well and that makes him a legit top pair defenseman. Fowler scored a career high 42 points last season, thanks in part to 18 points on the power play, his most with the man advantage since scoring 23 power play points as a rookie in 2010-2011. He has matured into a quality player and the 30-year-old defenseman is the one player that the Ducks were willing to invest in long term. For a young team that is almost assuredly going to make its share of mistakes, Fowler’s steady hand is essential. Klingberg’s arrival is likely to reduce Fowler’s impact on the power play, but he should still be able to provide 35 points in addition to his defensive value.
Kevin Shattenkirk
The 33-year-old right-shot defenseman can still move the puck and last season’s 35 points was his most since 2016-2017. However, his defensive performance also declined last season and the overall results with Shattenkirk on the ice were not as strong as they have been in the past. He has never been a bruiser on the back end, but Shattenkirk did record a career-high 135 blocked shots last season, a slightly different contribution from a player whose reputation has been built on strong play driving results and effective work on the power play. His offensive contributions may be sliding at this point, but Shattenkirk could still find his way to 30 points, a threshold he has reached eight times in his career.
Jamie Drysdale
A brilliant skater and dynamic puck moving defenseman, the 20-year-old still has room to grow and will need a more well-rounded game if he is going to maximize his impact. Nevertheless, even with some defensive shortcomings, Drysdale showed some positive signs in his second NHL season and given his age his career ascent should continue. With the Ducks bringing in Klingberg, they can be patient with the sixth pick in the 2020 Draft. Drysdale’s development does not need to be rushed in the short term, so maybe he scores 35-plus points, a little improvement on his rookie season, but not necessarily the explosion that could come in another year or two. Ideally, for the Ducks, his play without the puck will get steadier, too.
John Gibson
The underlying numbers for a few years now have been warning the Anaheim Ducks that goaltender John Gibson, once capable of carrying the team’s success on his back, had finally reached a point where he needed a break. It took until this past season for the raw data to catch up – but sure enough, the Ducks will enter the 2022-23 season unsure of just what their goaltending can do to save them, a position they haven’t really found themselves in for just shy of a decade.
The biggest concern with Gibson is that it’s hard to tell whether he’s suffering from physical wear and tear or if he’s starting to simply mentally fatigue after so many years of facing high-volume shot loads behind the Anaheim defense. He’s always embodied an unhurried structure combined with a quick mental read of the game, economizing his movements and staying low and deep to goad shooters into thinking they’ve got an easy shot on net. It seemed like that worked for him, right up until it didn’t; over the last year, he looked less unhurried and more delayed in his cross-crease movements, and he lacked that extra level of explosive movement upon arrival in position to snag errant shots and take up space that shooters didn’t think he could. If that’s simply due to too much time spent playing a physically demanding position behind a team that wasn’t giving him much help, it seems reasonable to hope that he can bounce back with the team’s continued rebuild; if he’s struggling to stay sharp in reading his opponents because he’s hit his capacity after the last few years, it’s much harder to predict whether or not he can bounce back. His biggest struggles seemed to come with tracking quick cross-ice puck movement fast enough to get his body across the net upon a shot release, and in using his hands to stop shots without opening up holes around his torso; while he certainly wasn’t being given enough support to pin the year entirely on him, it was a noticeable enough slump that it’s worth wondering whether or not we’ve started to witness his decline. If that’s the case, that’s bad news for Anaheim – they’re hoping to take tangible steps forward in their rebuild efforts, and Gibson is still under contract for another four years after this one. That’s not a problem if he plateaus at merely good instead of elite – the team could always use him to guide a newcomer like Calle Clang or Lukas Dostal in the final years of his career – but if he continues to trend down, they’ll need to make a tough decision about what he still has in the tank and whether or not he’s still a good fit for the franchise.
Projected starts: 50-55
Anthony Stolarz
It’s a satisfying feeling to watch former Philadelphia Flyers prospect Anthony Stolarz really find his stride in the NHL for Anaheim, even as it feels tough to watch his tandem partner John Gibson struggle. Stolarz, a roller hockey-raised New Jersey native who wowed scouts when he burst onto the scene as a late bloomer with the London Knights a decade ago, proved in his first full season as an NHL backup that he was worth the wait; his .917 raw save percentage and .672 quality start percentage through a 28-game campaign for Anaheim were good enough to consider him one of the most underrated backups in the league. Now, he’ll be back to prove that he wasn’t just a flash in the pan; he’s signed through the season on an incredibly agreeable $950,000 contract to tandem with Gibson and hopefully help the Ducks look a little more promising in the tumultuous Pacific Division.
Stolarz is such a fascinating goaltender to watch because his late start is still so apparent in his style, which makes his natural talent all the more obvious to observers. He looms over opponents at a whopping 6-foot-6 and 243 pounds but doesn’t play deep in his net like most larger netminders; instead, he showcases a lot of natural agility challenging opponents and pushing across the crease with plenty of speed to make sprawling saves and flashy highlight-reel second stops. His lack of consistent, formal technique make it hard to feel confident that he’s got true starter potential, especially as NHL shooters start to figure him out; he remains a little too easy to goad into challenging the wrong man on the ice, leaving him forced to make desperation saves in moments where he probably could have gotten the job done in a much simpler way. But for the moment, he keeps his opponents guessing enough that he’s able to suss out what they want to do during their moments of hesitation. He doesn’t mind getting aggressive, either, which can force shooters in close to release shots too quickly in an attempt to keep the puck away from him; it’s a high-stress style to watch, but it may just be the energy and morale boost that the Ducks need while they let GIbson work his way back from a year that disappointingly looked just ‘okay’.
Projected starts: 25-30
]]>In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Vladimir Tarasenko looks like his old self. Same goes for Alex Ovechkin. Points on Sam Bennett, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrei Svechnikov, Yanni Gourde and much more.
#1 While he apparently still wants to be traded, St. Louis Blues right winger Vladimir Tarasenko is doing his part to create a market for his services. After playing less than 13 minutes per game in the first game of the season, Tarasenko has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 22 shots on goal in the past four games. He obviously has a strong track record, as a five-time 30-goal scorer, but there have been concerns about his surgically repaired shoulder, but the way that Tarasenko is playing now – leading the league with 5.20 shots on goal per game, the shoulder does not appear to be a problem.
#2 The Washington Capitals have this winger who it turns out knows how to score a little bit. Alex Ovechkin is 36 years old and is off to the best start of his career. In six games, Ovi has 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and is still generating more than four shots on goal per game. His pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record is starting to heat up, even if it’s going to be years away, and part of the reason to believe is that 36-year-old Ovechkin is still hugely productive.

#3 Coming into the season, there were not a lot of rookies who looked like they would score at a huge rate as rookies. That might still be case in the end but, right now, Detroit Red Wings right winger Lucas Raymond has started his NHL career with seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal in six games. After scoring 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 34 games in the Swedish Hockey League last season, this has been an accelerated timeline on Raymond being a big NHL scorer but he is getting a first line shot alongside Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi, which is a pretty solid opportunity.
#4 When the Florida Panthers acquired Sam Bennett from the Calgary Flames, Bennett showed up in South Florida as a different player. He produced 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 10 games for the Panthers, but it was a small sample, and it would have been fair to expect him to fall of that pace. Early in this season, Bennett has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 22 shots on goal in six games.
#5 Anaheim Ducks defenceman Kevin Shattenkirk has been productive offensively early in this season, scoring three even-strength goals and adding three power-play assists in seven games. He is also getting caved in, with a 31.1 CF%, so he is riding some high percentage good fortune to that early point production but being on the wrong end of shot share to that degree should be alarming.
#6 The Winnipeg Jets did not get the best version of Pierre-Luc Dubois when they acquired him from Columbus last season, as Dubois stumbled his way to 20 points (8 G, 12 A) in 41 games. After a full offseason to prepare, Dubois has arrived ready to contribute and has seven points (4 G, 3 A) during a five-game point streak. He has scored on half of his shots so far this season, and that obviously won’t continue, but Dubois has stepped up with Mark Scheifele out and when Scheifele returns, Dubois figures to be the second line centre that the Jets thought they were getting last season.
#7 Columbus Blue Jackets captain Boone Jenner scored 30 goals in 2015-2016 but has not approached that level since and his fantasy value, if any, has been more closely aligned with hits and blocked shots. However, he is playing net front on the Columbus power play this season and has scored three of his four goals this season with the man advantage. Jenner is playing a career-high 20:20 per game so his role might be significant enough to give him fantasy relevance in 2021-2022.

#8 Carolina Hurricanes winger Andrei Svechnikov did not break out he might have been expected to last season, but we might be a year late on the breakout season. The 21-year-old, who was the second pick in the 2018 Draft, Svechnikov has points in all five Hurricanes games this season, on his way to nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 24 shots on goal in those five games for a Carolina team that has won all five.
#9 Puck-moving defenceman Nate Schmidt had a disappointing season for the Vancouver Canucks last season, his only season with the team, but he appears to be responding well to a fresh start in Winnipeg. Schmidt has six assists in the past four games, so there is reason to be encouraged, but he is still on the wrong end of the shot battle (46.9 CF%) which should temper some expectations for continued success. So maybe the reasonable position to take is that Schmidt will be better than last season in Vancouver, when he had 15 points (5 G, 10 A) in 54 games, but probably not continue at his current pace of six points in six games.
#10 Seattle Kraken centre Yanni Gourde made a relatively quick return from offseason shoulder surgery, and not only does he have three points (1 G, 2 A) in his first three games, but he has nine shots on goal and is playing 21:57 per game, a pretty big increase over the 17:04 per game that he played in Tampa Bay last season – his previous career high.
#11 Now that Carter Hutton is injured, and out for the next 2-4 weeks, Karel Vejmelka has an opportunity to prove he is a legitimate NHL goaltender. The 25-year-old has an .899 save percentage in five appearances for the Coyotes this season after posting a .913 save percentage in 163 games in the Czech League. Ivan Prosvetov has been called up from the AHL, and he will see some action, too, but the Coyotes are not especially interested in winning this season so if their goaltending ends up being subpar, it really does not interfere with their main objectives.
#12 Chicago Blackhawks superstar Patrick Kane is currently out of the lineup while in Covid-19 protocol and will face scrutiny in the wake of the investigation into the Blackhawks scandal, but there has been a relentless pace to his production, even as the team around him has crumbled. Kane has five points (1 G, 4 A) with 24 shots on goal in five games.
#13 Notable forwards that have played at least five games and are still seeking their first point of the season: Tampa Bay’s Corey Perry, Toronto’s Nick Ritchie, the Islanders’ Zach Parise, San Jose’s Nick Bonino, Detroit’s Pius Suter, New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt, and Edmonton’s Kailer Yamamoto. From that group, Bratt was one of my favourite value picks coming into the season and he would still have a higher ceiling than some of those veteran options. Interesting to note that several of these players have changed teams and have struggled to produce early with their new teams.
#14 Forwards with the most shots on goal without a goal yet: Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf, Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher, Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov, Montreal’s Josh Anderson, Vancouver’s Nils Hoglander, Montreal’s Cole Caufield, Philadelphia’s James van Riemsdyk, the Islanders’ Kyle Palmieri, Calgary’s Johnny Gaudreau and Dillon Dube, Detroit’s Pius Suter, and Los Angeles’ Arthur Kaliyev. It is not hard to figure out why the Canadiens are struggling when Gallagher, Anderson and Caufield have combined for zero goals on 49 shots.
#15 While his early production has not been anything special, managing two points (1 G, 1 A) in seven games, Vancouver Canucks defenceman Oliver Ekman-Larsson has put 28 shots on goal. Four shots on goal per game leads defencemen (minimum five games played) and would easily be a career-high for Ekman-Larsson, who has not recorded 2.50 shots on goal per game since 2015-2016. That shot rate is enough reason to hold out hope for Ekman-Larsson this season.
#16 Seattle Kraken winger Brandon Tanev has scored five goals in his first seven games with the expansion team but while the goals have been welcome, it is not coming from a sustainable place. Tanev has scored on 38.5% of his shots and, on top of that, has not picked up any assists. He could still have the first 30-point season of his career, but this early-season burst is not something to expect from Tanev in the long run.
#17 Minnesota Wild defenceman Matt Dumba is producing early in the season, with four points (1 G, 3 A) in six games and all of those points coming at evens. Dumba is generating 3.67 shots per game, a massive increase on his 1.75 shots per game last season, so he could be more of an offensive weapon for the Wild this season after a couple of seasons with relatively mediocre production.
#18 One of my sleeper candidates coming into the season was Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Erik Cernak, who had 18 points (5 G, 13 A) and 98 hits in 46 games last season. Those numbers get him into the fantasy discussion for deeper leagues, but Cernak might have another category that gives him an advantage. While he has two assists in seven games this season, he also has 25 shots on goal, a massive jump after averaging 1.86 shots on goal per game through the first three seasons of his NHL career. If his shot rate stays high, even if not at its current lofty rate, Cernak can have stealth fantasy value.
#19 There have been some outstanding goaltending performances early in the season, from Columbus’ Elvis Merzlikins, Carolina’s Frederik Andersen, Buffalo’s Craig Anderson, Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky, to Dallas’ Braden Holtby. All of those goaltenders have a save percentage of .939 or better in the very early going this season and all of them would have been relatively suspect entering the season.
Merzlikins’ main concern was not having the strongest team in front of him.
Andersen had struggled with performance and injuries in the previous two seasons with Toronto.
Anderson is a 40-year-old who played four games for Washington last season.
Bobrovsky’s past two seasons in Florida have been well-documented and it looked like rookie Spencer Knight could steal the starting job.
Holtby has been in decline for four seasons and in the past two seasons has finished with a save percentage under .900. Mix that in with a crowded Stars crease and it did not look like a great time to be optimistic about the performance of Braden Holtby.
A couple of things: 1. Goaltenders are voodoo. 2. This is a very small sample of games for each of these goalies. 3. There is nothing wrong with grabbing the hot goaltender for a little while until that heat cools off.
#20 At the other end of the goaltending spectrum is Chicago’s Marc-Andre Fleury. He was not sure that he wanted to join the Blackhawks after he was traded from the Vegas Golden Knights in the offseason and has lost his first four games while posting a .839 save percentage. Combine that with the team’s problems on and off the ice and it has been a rather dramatic shift in fortunes for the 2021 Vezina Trophy winner.
]]>You could have a hunch about which players that you think will be better than expected, and that’s fine – fantasy hockey is for fun, after all – but there are some relatively established guidelines for finding players whose production may exceed their perceived value.
It’s useful to understand perception because that indicates how early a player may get drafted or how much it will cost to acquire them in an auction. Perception is a significant factor in whether a player’s production can provide relative value and perception is often driven by goal and assist totals from the previous season.
But by looking beyond raw goals and assists, it’s evident that player value can be predicated on fluctuating percentages. A player who sees his own shooting percentage, or even the shooting percentage of others when he’s on the ice, dry up for one season is a prime candidate for a bounce-back performance. That presents an opportunity to secure potential value.
Another avenue that can provide value is to find players who excel in the less glamorous categories: hits, blocked shots, even shots on goal. Obviously, getting goals and assists is important but, in roto leagues, all categories count the same, so there is some appeal – albeit maybe a little less obvious – when it comes to players contributing in the “peripheral” categories.
The objective, then, for fantasy owners is to find some players that will be more productive than they have been previously or those that are looking to recover from a down season. There are risks involved but that’s where the value lies. Hit on a couple of the right players and your fantasy squad will start moving in the right direction.
Here is an all-star team of potential value players, those that could surprise and possibly exceed their fantasy draft slot this season.

FORWARDS
Filip Forsberg, LW, Nashville – The 25-year-old winger has scored enough highlight-reel goals that he’s not flying under the radar but he’s coming off a season in which he finished with 50 points, his fewest in a full season, and he’s missed 33 games over the past two seasons. A healthy Forsberg is a difference maker. Over the past four seasons, he ranks 19th in goals per game (0.40) and 29th in shots on goal per game (2.97). If the Predators can improve what was the league’s worst power play last season, Forsberg’s numbers should rise.
William Nylander, RW, Toronto – Quite possibly the most obvious candidate for a bounce-back season. The 23-year-old managed just seven goals in 54 games after a protracted contract negotiation caused him to miss the first two months of the 2018-2019 season. However, Nylander generated a career-best 9.6 shots per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play and finished with a career-low 5.4% shooting percentage so his underlying numbers were strong and undermined by that terrible shooting percentage. Presuming that the Maple Leafs get Nylander back to his more customary spot on Auston Matthews’ wing, the scoring chances will be there and Nylander’s production will get back on track.
Mika Zibanejad, C, N.Y. Rangers – It’s hard to get a bargain on a player who scored a career-high 74 points last season, and this is usually the type of player for which I might warn against paying full retail prices but Zibanejad could get another boost from playing with prized free agent addition Artemi Panarin. Throughout his career, Panarin’s lines have typically generated a lot of shots and, usually, finish at an above-average rate, which keeps the door open for another productive scoring season for Zibanejad.
J.T. Miller, LW, Vancouver – Playing in Tampa Bay last season, Miller scored 13 goals and averaged fewer than 15 minutes of ice time per game, his lowest marks since 2014-2015. Joining Vancouver, where the Canucks have fewer quality options up front, Miller is much more likely to hold a prominent role in the Canucks’ offense all season and he is a three-time 20-goal scorer who had a career-high 58 points in 2017-2018.
Jordan Eberle, RW, N.Y. Islanders – After years of consistent production, Eberle had his worst season in 2018-2019, his 37 points tying his previous career low which was set during the 2012-2013 lockout season when he played just 48 games. That lack of production was backed up by a career-low 2.05 shots on goal per game but Eberle responded in the postseason, with nine points in eight games and, importantly, generating more than three shots on goal per game. If Eberle makes his home on Mathew Barzal’s wing, it is reasonable to believe that he can bounce back closer to his previously established level of scoring performance.
Jaden Schwartz, LW, St. Louis – Somehow Schwartz managed just 11 goals and 36 points during the 2018-2019 regular season despite averaging a career-high 2.65 shots on goal per game. He recovered in the playoffs, scoring 12 goals in 26 games on the way to the Blues’ first Stanley Cup. With strong underlying numbers, it will come as little surprise if Schwartz’s regular season production far exceeds what he provided last season.
Ondrej Kase, RW, Anaheim – A prime breakout candidate for the past couple of years, the 23-year-old winger looked to be on his way last season. After starting the season on the shelf with a concussion, Kase had scored 11 goals in 30 games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher was the only player in the league to generate shots and shot attempts at a higher rate per minute than Kase, so if the Ducks winger is healthy enough to handle a prominent role for a full season, he might finally get that breakthrough campaign.
Alex Galchenyuk, RW, Pittsburgh – Forever looking to fulfill his potential, the 25-year-old gets another chance with his third NHL franchise. Last season’s 41 points was Galchenyuk’s lowest point total since 2013-2014 but he moves to a Penguins lineup that could give him a chance to skate with either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin at evens and, potentially, with both on the power play. Galchenyuk has produced 45 points on the power play in the past two seasons with Arizona and Montreal, and neither of those teams has a power play that can compare with what the Penguins have been rolling out in recent seasons.
Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Carolina – While a rookie season of 20 goals and 37 points was a nice debut for the 19-year-old winger, he’s just getting started. Svechnikov can generate shots but notably created high-quality chances. Among forwards to play at least 100 5-on-5 minutes last season, none had a higher rate of expected goals for per 60 than Svechnikov’s 3.34. The Hurricanes are a solid team but could use more high-end scorers to lead the attack and Svechnikov will eventually be one of those players, but maybe he makes that leap as soon as this season.
Tyler Toffoli, RW, Los Angeles – A three-time 20-goal scorer who has played all 82 games in three of the past four seasons, Toffoli’s 34 points in 82 games last season was the worst per-game production of his career. He scored on just 5.8% of his shots, well below his mark of 11.1% in his previous 375 games, and his on-ice shooting percentage of 6.4% was also a career-low. If Toffoli continues to generate shots and his percentages recover to a more typical level, then his goal and point totals would get a boost.
Roope Hintz, LW, Dallas – Even though he finished with a modest 22 points in 58 games as a rookie, the 22-year-old Stars forward finished strong with 11 points in the last 14 regular-season games before adding eight points in 13 playoff contests. He has the combination of size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds), speed, and skill to generate chances and his late-season surge gives him a regular spot in the lineup to provide the Stars with much-needed secondary offense.
Kevin Fiala, RW, Minnesota – The 23-year-old winger struggled after he was acquired from Nashville, managing seven points in 19 games with the Wild, but his on-ice shooting percentage was an absurdly low 3.0%. Fiala will have an opportunity to play a significant role in Minnesota and has such strong underlying numbers in terms of creating chances that it’s not a stretch to expect him to be better this season and he should be priced at a discount.
Nick Ritchie, LW, Anaheim – A 23-year-old power forward who tallied a career-high 31 points in 60 games last season, Ritchie offers additional value because he’s a banger. Even with a dip in hits last season, Ritchie has still averaged at least two hits per game for three straight seasons so if he scores enough to warrant consideration, his hit totals will offer additional value.

DEFENSE
Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo – The first pick in the 2018 Draft isn’t going to sneak by too many but his rookie season was phenomenal – his 44 points was the most by an 18-year-old rookie defenseman since Phil Housley in 1982-1983, and Dahlin’s 2.16 shots on goal per game was only surpassed by Housley and Bobby Orr. This is just the beginning for this puck-moving dynamo and Dahlin is one of the few defensemen with the potential to have an impact as a scorer.
Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg – With the turnover on the Jets’ blueline, opportunity knocks for Morrissey, their top-pair defender who scored a career-high 31 points last season despite playing in just 59 games. Morrissey will have a big role in Winnipeg, and he can fill the stat sheet in multiple categories including hits and blocked shots.
Kevin Shattenkirk, Tampa Bay – Few players are seeking redemption like Shattenkirk, who was bought out of his four-year contract with the New York Rangers after just two seasons. While he’s not the sturdiest defender, the 30-year-old blueliner is consistently productive on the power play and his ability to move the puck ought to play well with a skilled Lightning squad.
Devon Toews, N.Y. Islanders – A 25-year-old who produced 17 points in his first 48 NHL games last season, Toews had four points on the power play during the regular season then matched that total in eight playoff games. He’s a quality puck-mover who should be ready for a bigger role on the Islanders blueline because the Islanders were much better once Toews was inserted into the lineup.
Filip Hronek, Detroit – When veteran Red Wings defenseman Mike Green was injured last season, the door opened wider for Hronek, a 21-year-old right-shot defenseman who had 19 points while playing more than 20 minutes per game in his last 30 games. Green’s presence could pose an initial challenge for Hronek when it comes to power play time but, long-term, Hronek should be a fixture on the Detroit power play.
Jakob Chychrun, Arizona – The key for Chychrun is staying healthy. The 21-year-old has played three NHL seasons and has yet to record a 70-game season. But he produced 20 points in 53 games last season despite a career-low 5.3% on-ice shooting percentage. He could break out merely by having that on-ice shooting percentage come back to a more reasonable level while staying healthy enough to play 75 games.

GOALTENDERS
Martin Jones, San Jose – After a miserable 2018-2019 regular season, during which he had a career-low .896 save percentage, Jones is likely to be a relative bargain to acquire for the 2019-2020 fantasy season, and it’s worthwhile to take that plunge. He had a .915 save percentage over his previous three seasons and is the undisputed starter on a team that should at least be a playoff team and possibly a contender. That role matters because as poorly as Jones performed last season, he still won 36 games, his fourth straight season with at least 30 wins.
Antti Raanta, Arizona – Limited to just a dozen games last season, Raanta had a .927 save percentage in 116 games over the previous four seasons and had established that he was a legit starter for the Coyotes in 2017-2018. If he’s healthy, Raanta should be the No. 1 option for an improved Coyotes team and, because of last season’s injury, could be a draft day bargain.
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There’s some cautious optimism that this might be the season Carolina ends its nine-season playoff drought, but the Hurrianes’ chances took a blow before the season even started. Victor Rask sustained a hand injury that will cost him months and perhaps the hardest part of it to swallow is the fact that he was hurt in the kitchen and not the ice.
The one thing Carolina did better than any team last season was win faceoffs (54.1%) and Rask was a significant part of that (54.9%) as were Derek Ryan (56.5%) and Elias Lindholm (54.5%), who are no longer with the team. Those two departures combined with Rask’s tough-luck injury have created a void up the middle that there is no clear answer for. Sebastian Aho has been tested as a center, but coach Rod Brind’Amour hasn’t liked what he’s seen there.
Lucas Wallmark might end up making the team, especially given the Hurricanes’ need for centers right now. He excelled in the AHL last season with 17 goals and 55 points in 45 contests. He also got into 11 games with Carolina, but averaged just 9:30 minutes and recorded a single goal.
Outside of the center issues, the Hurricanes’ other big focus has been Andrei Svechnikov, who is fighting for a roster spot after being taken with the second overall pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. It wouldn’t be surprising to at least see him get a nine-game trial with Carolina so that the Hurricanes can test him out in the regular season before coming to a final decision.
Columbus Blue Jackets
When everyone’s healthy, Columbus has a strong blueline, but that ideal isn’t what the Blue Jackets will start with. Seth Jones suffered a second-degree MCL sprain on Tuesday, which is projected to sideline him for four-to-six weeks. Needless to say, losing Jones is a far bigger deal to Columbus than Murray. Jones has been a top-tier defenseman for a while now, but he found another level in 2017-18 with 16 goals and 57 points while averaging 24:36 minutes per game. That led to him finishing fourth in Norris Trophy voting.
To further complicate the situation, Ryan Murray isn’t expected to be ready for the start of the season. Injuries have plagued Murray’s career and in this case it’s a groin issue that will cost him time. When the Blue Jackets were only looking at dealing with the absence of Murray, there was speculation that Markus Nutivaara might be slotted into as David Savard’s partner – at least until Murray was available as an alternative. It’d be a big opportunity for Nutivaara after he averaged just 16:02 minutes in 2017-18, but it’s worth noting that he did a fair amount offensively in that role with seven goals and 23 points in 61 games. Now that Jones is out too, the Blue Jackets need to scramble to find new pairings, but this just makes it more likely that Nutivaara will be on the second pairing, whether it’s with Savard or someone else should Savard get bumped to the top unit. Nutivaara might also be asked to serve on the second power-play unit now that Jones is out.
At least the Blue Jackets also got some positive news on the injury front as Zach Werenski is on track to play in the season opener. He underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum after playing with the problem for most of 2017-18. That injury might have been part of the reason he went from recording 47 points as a rookie to 37 points as a sophomore, so he could have a nice bounce back this season provided he’s healthy. If Columbus had to enter the season without Werenski and Jones, it would have created a massive void, but at least it appears they’re narrowing avoiding that nightmare scenario.
New Jersey Devils
Cory Schneider had an up-and-down 2017-18 campaign, but rather than wonder if he can be consistent going forward, the more immediate question is if he’ll be available. He had hip surgery over the summer and while he has practiced during training camp, he hasn’t gotten into a preseason game. That puts his status for New Jersey’s opener on Oct. 6 very much in question.
Keith Kinkaid would start in Schneider’s absence and given how well Kinkaid did down the stretch last season, if Schneider ends up missing a meaningful amount of time, Kinkaid could take that opportunity to make a strong case to steal the starting gig. Meanwhile, veteran goalie Eddie Lack is projected to make the Devils’ opening game roster if Schneider isn’t ready.
At least the Devils sorted out a different question mark on Sept. 22 when they signed Miles Wood to a four-year, $11 million contract. Wood missed the start of training camp as a RFA contract holdout, but these events might favor New Jersey in the long run. Giving Wood four years is a risk given that he still has more to prove, but the 23-year-old forward had an encouraging 19 goals, 32 points, and 84 penalty minutes in 76 contests last season, so if he continues to develop than he should more than live up to that contract.
New York Islanders
Luca Sbisa joined the Islanders’ training camp on a tryout basis and ended up securing a one-year, $1.5 million contract with time to spare. In doing so, the Islanders have created a logjam on the blueline with eight different defensemen signed to one-way contracts. They also have Dennis Seidenberg participating in their camp on a tryout basis, but it’s hard to see him earning a one-way contract after Sbisa already signed.

Of course, the big question for the Islanders going into the season is how their top two forward lines will shake out. John Tavares signing with the Toronto Maple Leafs naturally created a big hole that no one on the team is capable of truly filling. The Islanders are fortunate in the sense that Mathew Barzal excelled as a rookie in 2017-18, so they at least have a strong first-line center even without Tavares, but then who do they put on the second line? Brock Nelson might end up getting that gig. He’s been tried out with some of the Islanders’ top wingers during camp, including Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle, and Josh Bailey. Nelson is obviously going to be a huge step down from John Tavares, but taking Nelson on his own merits, he might end up being an okay second-line center.
One player that won’t be trying to fill that offensive void left by Tavares, at least not at the start of the season, is Joshua Ho-Sang. The Islanders have already reassigned him to the AHL, which has to be extremely disappointing for the 2014 first-round pick. Ho-Sang hasn’t been able to establish himself as quickly as some hoped and now it seems that even the fresh start he was provided by the Islanders changing their general manager and coach hasn’t moved things in a positive direction.
New York Rangers
The Rangers will began the rebuilding process last season and gave this new era a face when they hired David Quinn to serve as the new head coach straight from Boston University. A new coach on a rebuilding team creates a golden opportunity for young players and it looks like Filip Chytil has taken advantage of that. Chytil has been one of the Rangers’ standouts and given Quinn’s philosophy of having his best nine forwards serve on the top-nine regardless of positional considerations, Quinn should find a way to give Chytil healthy opportunities in the regular season provided the 19-year-old forward continues to impress.
Not everyone has had as strong a camp though and Jimmy Vesey might not have done enough to earn more than a fourth-line spot out of the gate. Vesey might be playing alongside Vladislav Namestnikov on that unit, which would be a huge step down from most of 2017-18 when Namestnikov was primarily playing alongside Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. Whether you feel the Rangers won or lost the Ryan McDonagh trade with Tampa Bay, it seems evident that Namestnikov was the biggest loser in the shift.
It’s also worth noting that Kevin Shattenkirk made his preseason debut on Sept. 22, which was his first game since Jan. 18 after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus. He got a pair of assists in the 5-2 loss and while preseason statistics aren’t terribly useful, it’s encouraging to see him do well after being absent for so long.
Philadelphia Flyers
It wouldn’t be the Philadelphia Flyers if there wasn’t goaltending drama. The latest chapter starts with Michal Neuvirth, who now appears doubtful for the start of the regular season due to an undisclosed injury. If he can’t play, then the Flyers safest alternative would be Alex Lyon given that he got into 11 games with Philadelphia last season – but Lyon is dealing with a lower-body injury and therefore also not an option.

That leaves Anthony Stolarz, who is coming off two knee surgeries and played a total of four games in 2017-18 (three in the ECHL), and Carter Hart, the man Flyers fans are putting their hopes and dreams on. Hart has done great in the preseason, but even so it’s reasonable to wonder if it’s really a good idea to send him straight from the WHL to the NHL? It’s asking a lot of him and might not be ideal for his development. The Flyers might end up having to acquire a goalie, which is something that would have seemed crazy just a few weeks ago when it looked like they had an organizational logjam in goal.
Outside of the Flyers’ goalie issues, one emerging storyline has been Corban Knight. He’s 28-years-old, has only played in 29 career NHL games and spent the last two seasons entirely in the minors so he naturally didn’t come into training camp with any special attention paid to him. Knight has managed to claw himself into the conservation for the Flyers’ fourth-line spot though, frequently playing alongside Scott Laughton and Michael Raffl. Knight survived Tuesday’s round of roster cuts, so if nothing else, he would be one of the last players cut if he doesn’t make the team.
Even if Knight makes the team, he wouldn’t have a huge impact, but it would make for a nice feel good story of a guy that kept fighting long after he lost the prospect tag and eventually managed to defy the odds.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Jean-Sebastien Dea has managed to survive the Penguins’ cuts thus far and is consequently one of the final 15 forwards on the roster. He’s coming off his best campaign in the AHL to date with 18 goals and 50 points in 70 games. He also has the versatility to play center or right wing and kill penalties. If he does make the Penguins, it will likely be as a fourth-liner though.
Whatever happens with Dea, the biggest change for the Penguins going into the season will be the addition of offseason signing Jack Johnson. It wasn’t long ago that Johnson was a workhorse that consistently logged an average of over 24 minutes each season for Columbus, but his role declined in 2017-18 to the point where he averaged 19:33 minutes and was a healthy scratch in the playoffs. With that all behind him, it looks like Johnson will enter the season on the Penguins’ second pairing with Justin Schultz. The X-Factor there is the fact that Schultz skipped Wednesday’s preseason game due to a nagging upper-body injury. Penguins coach Mike Sullivan didn’t make it seem like anything serious, but obviously if Schultz ends up being unavailable for the start of the season then Johnson will temporarily play alongside someone else.
Washington Capitals
After winning the Stanley Cup, the Washington Capitals made a point of minimizing roster turnover, so naturally there weren’t a lot of question marks going into training camp. That’s led to a quieter preseason, so there has still been a couple smaller storylines.
For example, Devante Smith-Pelly hasn’t gotten into a preseason game yet and that’s reportedly because he hasn’t lived up to the Capitals’ conditioning standards. At this point it’s not clear if the Capitals will use Smith-Pelly as part of their opening game roster. It’s unfortunate to see this happen given that he was one of the role players that helped push the Capitals over the top with his seven goals and eight points in the postseason. Washington felt good enough about what he brought to the table to sign him to a one-year, $1 million contract over the summer, but now it seems like he might not live up to that deal.
The Capitals might also start the season without defenseman Michal Kempny, but for a very different reason. He’s sidelined after absorbing a high elbow from St. Louis’ Robert Bortuzzo during Tuesday’s game. Although the Capitals have simply termed Kempny’s injury as “upper body,” it’s reportedly a concussion and if that’s true then it’s hard to say how long he’ll be out for. Kempny is another one of those role players that came through for the Capitals during the playoffs. In his case, Kempny logged 17:42 minutes per contest in the postseason, which led to Washington signing him to a four-year, $10 million contract back in June. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that 21-year-old defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler has looked good in training camp and should be included in the Capitals’ final roster if Kempny isn’t available.
]]>Value can come in many forms. Maybe it’s just getting the expected performance out of a blue-chip player, and at the end of the year you can say thank you to Connor McDavid or Sidney Crosby for being great. It can also be about getting a player with no expectations that turns out to be productive enough to contribute to your squad’s fantasy success.
As billionaire investor Warren Buffett said, “The price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
That means that every round, when you make your pick, that is the price you pay for that given player. The way to extract relative value on draft day, though, is to get players that will perform better than their draft slot.
There are a number of reasons why a player might be a good candidate to provide favourable value, maybe the most notable of which is that they are coming off a season of poor percentages, either related to their own shooting percentage or their 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage (which measures the finishing ability of their linemates). If either of those percentages were well off a skater’s career norms, then there is a pretty good chance that those numbers will bounce back, leading to better goal and point production in the following season.
Another factor to consider when it comes to value is perception. If a player has a high profile and receives lots of publicity, it’s going to be more difficult to sneak that pick past anyone. To that end, once players start showing up on every value picks list, they may already start to lose some of their potential value because they are no longer sitting quite so far under the radar.
Nevertheless, here are some players to consider as value plays on draft day, including some high-end players who might be even better their reputations and working down to some late-round sleeper candidates.
FORWARDS

Brad Marchand, Boston – This isn’t to suggest that you won’t have to invest a high pick in the Boston super-pest, but he will be worth it. Over the past three seasons, Marchand has scored 110 goals, ranking behind only Alex Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko. Over the past two seasons, thanks to an increased role on the Boston power play, Marchand has 170 points, which is tied for fourth in the league. He’s a vital cog on the league’s best line, with Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, so don’t be afraid of paying retail prices for Marchand’s production.
Tyler Seguin, Dallas – Over the past five seasons he’s tied for sixth in the league in points (384) and only Alex Ovechkin has scored more goals than Seguin’s 173. He scored a career-high 40 goals last season while playing a career-high 20:55 per game, and while a new coach may not give him all of that ice time (though he might), it’s also entirely possible that Jim Montgomery will have the Stars playing a more up-tempo pace than they did under Ken Hitchcock.
Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis – By no means is it guaranteed that O’Reilly will find himself centering super sniper Vladimir Tarasenko, but it would seem to be a good fit since O’Reilly is both a defensive stalwart, a strong playmaker, and he’s coming off a season in which he finished with 61 points, the second highest total of his career, even though he had a career-low on-ice shooting percentage of 6.0%. Playing with an elite talent like Tarasenko could bring out his best.
Sam Reinhart, Buffalo – Even though second overall pick in the 2014 Draft finished with a career-high 50 points last season, Reinhart started the year with just 11 points in his first 38 games and he had an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.9% for the whole season. If he carries his second half production into a full year, with an improved Sabres team, the 22-year-old’s numbers should keep climbing.
Travis Konecny, Philadelphia – After Christmas, the 21-year-old winger scored 20 goals and 37 points in 45 games, performing at high level down the stretch while skating with Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier on Philadelphia’s top line. He also finished second on the team with 2.26 points/60 during 5-on-5 play, scoring 44 of his 47 points at even strength.
Nino Niederreiter, Minnesota – A power forward possession beast who managed 32 points in an injury-plagued 2017-2018 season, Niederreiter had a career-high 57 points in 2016-2017. Coming off that down season, he should cost less to acquire, but that leads to a potential value gain if he gets back on track.

Alex Galchenyuk, Arizona – A fresh start with a team that might offer more opportunity is a good reason to have higher hopes for Galchenyuk, because there is an argument to be made that he was not handled particularly well in Montreal, but it’s also worth noting that any scoring forward who had a 5.1% on-ice shooting percentage last season is likely to see more favourable percentages in the next season.
Jonathan Drouin, Montreal – His first season with the Canadiens didn’t necessarily go as planned, and it’s fair to wonder whether Drouin is going to make it long-term as a centre, but the percentages weren’t on his side either, as he scored on 7.9% of his shots and had a 5.6% on-ice shooting percentage. The third pick in the 2013 Draft had a good finish last season, scoring 13 points in his last 14 games and, given his prominent role on the team, Drouin will have every opportunity to produce offensively.
Pavel Buchnevich, N.Y. Rangers – A new coaching staff and a team committed to rebuilding could present more consistent top-six opportunities for the talented 23-year-old winger, who had a respectable 43 points last season, but managed just one goal in his last 22 games and that could help make him somewhat easier to acquire on draft day.
Ondrej Kase, Anaheim – The 22-year-old winger flashed some potential in 2016-2017 and tallied 20 goals and 38 points in 66 games last season, when he led Ducks regulars in goals, points and primary points per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. He has spent quite a bit of time alongside Ryan Getzlaf on the top line, and that makes life easier for any scoring winger.
Alex Tuch, Vegas – James Neal’s departure has opened up a second-line spot for Tuch, who showed a lot of potential as a rookie, and that second-line opening comes with the benefit of a chance to skate alongside veteran playmaking centre Paul Stastny. That’s a good set up for Tuch, who offers a rare combination of size and speed, to build on last season’s production.
Jack Roslovic, Winnipeg – With Paul Stastny leaving, there is a great opportunity for the second-year centre to step into a role on a scoring line. If it turns out that Roslovic is a plug-and-play replacement for Stastny between Nikolaj Ehlers and Patrik Laine, well, that’s the dream scenario that makes it worth grabbing Roslovic and hoping that he is ready to handle that responsibility.
Andre Burakovsky, Washington – Four years into his NHL career, we’re still waiting on a breakout season, but the 23-year-old’s goal and points per 60 numbers are among the best on the Capitals. It’s worth grabbing him late if only to find out what might happen if he plays at least 65 games, something that he’s done once in four years.
Austin Czarnik, Calgary – A 25-year-old who has 17 points in 59 career NHL games is likely to be available for a late-round flier, and Czarnik is worth consideration at that price because he has tallied 155 points in 157 American Hockey League games and joins a Flames team that offers an opportunity to play significant minutes. After Yanni Gourde’s success in Tampa Bay last season, Czarnik is a player with a similar pedigree as a minor-league scorer, looking for his chance to shine in the NHL.
DEFENCE

Brent Burns, San Jose – You won’t get him cheaply, but the 33-year-old freewheeling blueliner still offers massive value at a relatively early draft slot. Even though he managed 12 goals last season, Burns scored on just 3.6% of his shots, his lowest rate since 2009-2010, and his on-ice shooting percentage (6.2%) was his lowest in the advanced stats era (ie. since 2007-2008). Over the past three seasons, Burns leads all defencemen in goals (68), points (218) and, by a mile, shots on goal (1005).
Oscar Klefbom, Edmonton – He plummeted from a dozen goals and 38 points in 2016-2017 to just five goals and 21 points last season, but Klefbom was limited by a bad shoulder that ultimately ended his season early. A healthy Klefbom remains the best power-play quarterback on the Edmonton blueline and, provided that he’s not hindered by the shoulder issue, Klefbom should be in line for a rebound season.
Thomas Chabot, Ottawa – The 2015 first-round pick was kept under wraps early in his rookie season, but started to play a lot more in the second half of the season and he performed well. As it was, he still finished with 25 points in 63 games, so those numbers could shoot up if he starts playing 20-minutes plus every night for a full season.

Duncan Keith, Chicago – To be fair, no one is going to consider Keith a genuine sleeper. Everyone is well aware of a 34-year-old who has won two Norris Trophies and been a No. 1 defenceman on three Stanley Cup winners, but he’s coming off an especially poor year. Part of how those poor results were achieved, though, was through abysmal percentages. He scored two goals on 187 shots (1.1 SH%) and his 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage (5.7%) was a career-low, too. If absolutely nothing else changes and the percentages move back towards his career norms, Keith’s results will be noticeably better.
Kevin Shattenkirk, N.Y. Rangers – A prize free agent signing in the summer of 2017, the veteran blueliner missed nearly half of the season due to injury, but remains one of the best power play quarterbacks in the game. Even on a rebuilding Rangers team there will be points to be had with the man advantage.
Samuel Girard, Colorado – The heady, smallish, puck-moving blueliner scored more than half of his points on the power play during his rookie campaign, earning a bigger role as the season progressed, and the 20-year-old should continue his upward career trajectory in his second season.
GOALTENDERS
Braden Holtby, Washington – Last season was clearly the worst of Holtby’s career, and he even lost the starting job going down the stretch and into the playoffs, so of course that was the season in which he backstopped the Capitals to the Stanley Cup. Given his impressive track record, though, it’s still worth investing in Holtby as a star goaltender. With Philipp Grubauer moving on, Holtby’s hold on the No. 1 job should be even more secure.

Antti Raanta, Arizona – He doesn’t have the reputation of other starting goaltenders, in part because last season was the first time that he played more than 40 games in a season, and injuries still limited him to 47 appearances. Raanta is also playing behind a Coyotes team that wants to be more competitive, but they haven’t made the playoffs since 2012 and have surpassed 80 points once since then. Even with those factors taken into account, Raanta was outstanding when healthy last year and has a .927 save percentage in 116 games over the past four seasons. The 29-year-old does not have the track record to be considered an elite netminder, but once they’re off the board, Raanta could bring nice value.
Linus Ullmark, Buffalo – The 25-year-old netminder is coming off a strong AHL campaign, during which he posted a .922 save percentage in 44 games, and while veteran Carter Hutton appears to have a leg up in the Sabres’ goaltending competition, Ullmark has potential to emerge as Buffalo’s number one option between the pipes.
]]>In February management released a statement announcing a transition to a younger group. Prior to the draft they reaffirmed they are planning a rebuild. They laid the foundation at the draft with three first round picks, following upon two first rounders in 2017 (promising Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil who almost made the team as an 18-year-old last year). Given the Rangers had not had a first round pick since 2012 it is a significant shift in direction for the team. In addition to the three first rounders they also had three picks over the second and third round significantly stocking the cupboard, notably adding six defensemen.
REBUILD UNDERWAY - The rebuild also began behind the bench with the hiring of David Quinn, who coached at Boston University, after parting ways with Alain Vigneault after five seasons. He will have a different mandate in molding a group of promising young prospects into a contender in three of four seasons. The market of New York has not been known for patience nor has management in the past but GM Jeff Gorton managed to resist temptation in free agency with almost $20 million dollars in cap space.
They began acquiring assets close the trade deadline trading Rick Nash and acquiring 20-year-old Ryan Lindgren, the Bruins first round pick and Ryan Spooner (26-years-old and an RFA this offseason). They also shipped defensive stalwart Ryan McDonagh and forward J.T. Miller to Tampa for Vladimir Namestnikov, prospects Libor Hajek and Brett Howden, both of whom could make the squad this year along with a first round pick (used to acquire defenseman Nils Lundqvist) and a conditional second for 2019.

There is no doubt the decline of Henrik Lundqvist has accelerated the rebuild after a second subpar season. After posting a 0.910 save percentage in 2016-17, he climbed slightly back up to 0.915, but struggled from February on posting a 0.908 save percentage in the fourth quarter.
The core forward group has both Mika Zibanejad and Kevin Hayes who fired 25 goals at center, the first time a pair of 25-year-olds have done that for the franchise in 17 years, and the first two centers since Gretzky and Messier did it for the club in 1996-97. Zibanejad was dominating through the first part of the season until sidelined by a concussion. They anchored the top two lines and were second and third behind 30-year-old Mats Zuccarello in team scoring. The undersized but remarkably consistent (five seasons between 49 and 61 points in a row), healthy and effective winger. He led the forward group in ice time. All signs point towards being moved for assets prior to the deadline.
TALENTED YOUTH CHALLENGE ON WING - Hayes may find his spot in the top six challenged by either Filip Chytil or Lias Andersson, both first round draft picks from 2017. They were both on the roster to end the season after spending time in the AHL and will make their case in camp.
On the wing Chris Kreider brings size and speed and after a breakout 2016-17 and he started 2017-18 with a solid first half before being diagnosed with blood clots in his arm and forced to miss two months, returning 15 pounds lighter and needing time to adjust. Signs of a full return to form came when he had an outstanding tournament for Team USA at the World Championships.
The Rangers have been patient with Pavel Buchnevich and he will be provided with every opportunity to break out this season. After scoring at a point a game as a rookie, he endured an up and down sophomore season, not unusual and providing some learning. He has exciting upside and dynamic skills so joining the top line with Kreider and Zibanejad would provide a potentially explosive line all over 6’2”.
The defence is anchored by already mentioned Shattenkirk, Staal and Smith. Staal and Smith pose a challenge for the incoming coach to turn their game around and provide veteran presence on the blueline. Vigneault had lost confidence in Brendan Smith and was clearly not part of his plans.
Brady Skej brings 6’3” with a large wingspan, owns exceptional mobility and situational awareness. Very strong defensively he is also a superb skater. He posted 39 points in his rookie season and took a step back last season, but all the tools and opportunity are there to excel. Led the Rangers in ice time last season. He signed a six-year extension at $5.25 million AAV in July cementing his role as part of the future of the Rangers.
Neal Pionk was signed out of the University of Minnesota-Duluth before the season and played most of the year in the AHL, but when he joined the big club he averaged 22:23 minutes per game, behind only Ryan McDonagh on the team and slightly ahead of Skej. He added 14 point in 28 games and appeared to play his way on to the roster.
OUTLOOK – Red lights flashing warning include a defense that allowed 3.27 goals against per game for 28th in the league, and the worst Corsi For percentage with 45.9. They had decent special teams with a 12th ranked power play (21.2%) and a 10th ranked penalty kill (81.4%). A return to form for their veteran defenders will make a difference and if Lundqvist has another season in him but little was done to address this need.
While in a rebuild they already have a core roster of relatively young skaters so could transition quickly. No dominant stars but they can compete but won’t run the corner this season.
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Ryan Getzlaf – Sustained a lower-body injury last week and hasn’t resumed skating yet. A couple days back Ducks coach Randy Carlyle did say on Saturday that he expected Getzlaf to play in the opener, but that’s on Thursday so we’re cutting it pretty close now.
Patrick Eaves – Didn’t end up playing in any preseason games. His lower-body injury might keep him out of the season opener as well. He’s another player Carlyle projected to be available for the opener while speaking on Saturday though, so we’ll see.
Arizona
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Good news on this front. His recovery from his knee injury has progressed to the point where he’s been practicing with the Coyotes. It looks like he’ll be ready for the season opener.
Antti Raanta –A lower-body injury kept him out of the Coyotes’ last preseason game. He practiced with Arizona on Sunday though, so he’ll probably be fine for the opener.
Boston
Torey Krug – The Bruins are hoping that his jaw injury only sidelines him for the first three-to-five regular season games. In the meantime, he has been skating. For what it’s worth, when he does return he’ll be wearing a protective mask.
Buffalo
Benoit Pouliot – Was on a line with Ryan O'Reilly and Kyle Okposo during Sunday’s practice. He had been practicing as a bottom-six forward previously, so it will be interesting to see if he ends up on that unit to start the campaign.
Zemgus Girgensons – It was bad news for Girgensons. He was previously on Ryan O'Reilly and Kyle Okposo’s line, but Girgensons was knocked down to the third unit with Sam Reinhart and Jason Pominville. The Sabres’ third line has potential though.
Rasmus Ristolainen – After averaging 26:28 minutes per game last season (up from 25:17 minutes in 2015-16), Sabres coach Phil Housley wants to cut Ristolainen down to 22-23 minutes per game. The hope is that will keep him fresher for the final stretch.
Calgary
Jaromir Jagr – Signed a one-year contract with Calgary that comes with a $1 million base salary. Not sure what line Jagr plays for, but here’s a fun aside: Jagr was drafted the same year as Matthew Tkachuk’s father Keith. Keith Tkachuk retired seven years ago.
Carolina
Lee Stempniak – His hip/back problems remain something of a mystery. On Monday Hurricanes coach Bill Peters remarked, "We've got to get to the bottom of it sooner rather than later." Stempniak is questionable for the season opener and how much time he might miss beyond that seems like anybody’s guess.
Chicago
Connor Murphy – Sustained a lower-body injury on Saturday and didn’t practice on Monday as a result. It’s not clear if he’ll be available for the opener.
Colorado
Jonathan Bernier – As mentioned before, he sustained a groin injury on Sept. 25. The good news is that he resumed practicing with the team on Monday.
Columbus
Brandon Dubinsky – Got into the preseason finale on Saturday after missing all the previous exhibition contests due to a wrist injury. He should be fine for the season opener.
Pierre-Luc Dubois – Although the Blue Jackets have experimented with using him as a center, it looks like he’ll be serving as a left winger to start the campaign. His projected linemates are Brandon Dubinsky and Matt Calvert.
Boone Jenner – His back injury will keep him out of the season opener. Beyond that there’s no timetable for his return. He hasn’t skated with the Blue Jackets yet.
Detroit
David Booth – Signed a one-year, two-way deal with the Red Wings. It sounds like he’ll be in the lineup for the season opener, probably alongside Riley Sheahan and Luke Glendening.
Florida
Owen Tippett – He’ll be part of the Panthers’ roster for the start of the 2017-18 campaign. The downside is that it might be as a fourth line forward, so he might not be a fantasy factor for a while still.
Los Angeles
Mike Cammalleri/Jonny Brodzinski – The two might find themselves on either side of Anze Kopitar to begin the season. Obviously that would be great news for both of them, but it’d be a particularly big opportunity for the rookie Brodzinski.
Minnesota
Zach Parise – Is now expected to miss the first two games of the regular season due to his back problem. He also missed the Wild’s whole preseason schedule.
Nashville
Viktor Arvidsson – There’s been talk of him not opening the season with Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg. Two potential candidates to replace him on the top line would be Kevin Fiala and Scott Hartnell. None of that’s been finalized yet though.
New Jersey
Jimmy Hayes – More of an FYI because he doesn’t have fantasy value, but he did earn a one-year, $700,000 contract with New Jersey after attending the Devils’ training camp on a PTO.
Pavel Zacha – He’s getting a big opportunity off the bat as he’s projected to open on a line with Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri. It’s not set in stone, but Devils coach John Hynes called it a “strong possibility.
NY Rangers
Kevin Shattenkirk – It’s not surprising, but it looks like Shattenkirk will be paired with Ryan McDonagh to start the season.
NY Islanders
Jordan Eberle – Another bit of anticipated, but nice to be basically confirmed news is that Eberle will be starting the campaign alongside John Tavares. The third member of that unit should be Anders Lee. Islanders coach Doug Weight has been happy with that trio so far.
Ottawa
Derick Brassard – Has been cleared for contact, so he might be able to play in the season opener. He’s been recovering from a shoulder injury.
Erik Karlsson – Still dealing with a foot injury, it’s now very unlikely that he’ll play in the opener. Not sure when he’ll be back.
Philadelphia

Shayne Gostisbehere – Sustained an upper-body injury during Sunday’s game. There hasn’t been an update yet, but he did join the Flyers’ flight to San Jose (ahead of Wednesday’s opener), so you could take that as an encouraging sign.
Travis Sanheim/Sam Morin – They were battling for a spot on the roster, but if Gostisbehere isn’t available then they could both stay on the roster for now. Fellow rookie defenseman Robert Hagg did make the roster so he should remain with the squad regardless of Gostisbehere’s status.
San Jose
Joe Thornton – He made his preseason debut on Saturday, clearing the way for him to participate in the opener. He underwent knee surgery to repair a torn ACL/MCL.
St. Louis
Scottie Upshall – Not of much fantasy relevance, but he did sign a one-year contract with the Blues. He began on a PTO with Vancouver, but found an opportunity with the Blues instead due to their injuries. Upshall is likely to enter the season on the fourth line alongside Kyle Brodziak and Chris Thorburn.
Washington
Tom Wilson – He’ll have a hearing tomorrow (Tuesday) for boarding the Blues’ Sam Blais. He already served a two-game preseason suspension over interference, so maybe this will be a harsher punishment as a result.
Brooks Orpik – Capitals coach Barry Trotz is tentatively planning to pair Orpik up with John Carlson to open the season. Orpik usually played alongside Nate Schmidt last season, but he’s not with the team anymore. Similarly, Carlson’s most common 2016-17 partner, Karl Alzner, is also gone.

Jakub Vrana – Not set in stone, but there’s a chance that Vrana not only opens the season with the Capitals, but does so on a line with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov.
Winnipeg
Matt Hendricks – Is on the injured reserve after sustaining an undisclosed injury during Wednesday’s preseason contest. He’s regarded as day-to-day.
Andrew Copp – Suffered a knee injury during Saturday’s preseason contest. Jets coach Paul Maurice hasn’t ruled out Copp for the season opener though.
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Summary: Every year, the Blues are a tempting pick to go on a Cup run and every year, they are a letdown. A fact they are very aware of themselves.
Still, that's not the reason for picking against them this time. This has to do with the fact that Chicago is simply the better hockey team.
The two are pretty even in most categories, but the Hawks have more firepower on offense, which is what gives them a very slight edge here. It will be a shame as a very good team with champion potential will be eliminated.
PREDICTION: Blackhawks in 7
First Game Update: St. Louis takes a 1-0 lead on a re-directed overtime goal by David Backes, and a 35-save performance by Brian Elliott. The Hawks outshot the Blues 35 to 18, including seven to two in overtime. St. Louis out hit the Hawks 41 to 24, as they have all season in head to head matchups (167 to 102), setting the tone for a grueling series of two very good teams.
Key Injuries: Duncan Keith (game 1 – suspension – back for game 2),
Critical Factors: St. Louis is healthy going into the playoffs, something that has been a problem in the past. Chicago is not the same team as a year ago, as the CF% decline (see Notes below) attests, after another remodel due to salary cap issues. The loss of experience in Johnny Oduya and Patrick Sharp were addressed with aggressive deadline acquisitions Andrew Ladd, Dale Weise and Thomas Fleishmann. There was not a noticeable improvement in possession after the deadline, however. Oduya’s loss has not been addressed on the back end. They have replaced it with a high octane scoring line with the emergence of Artemi Panarin, helping Patrick Kane to win the scoring title.
Brian Elliott has been excellent this season finishing second behind Ben Bishop with a 2.07 GAA, and leading the league in save percentage 0.934 SV% (more than 20 games) – matching his regular season, and putting past playoff demons behind him, could make the difference in a tight series. Corey Crawford was enjoying an excellent season as well, before getting hurt and missing a month, with a 0.924 SV%, and 2.36 GAA setting up a potential goaltenders duel if he is 100%.
Season Matchup: STL 3-2-0 Possession gave a slight edge to STL (222 CF (53%) vs. 191 CF (47%)) in the five head-to-head games this season (war-on-ice.com).
Potential Breakout Players: Colton Pareyko will be interesting to watch in his first playoff, he posted 33 points in his rookie season, even if he has been quiet as of late. His size will be welcome as the Western Conference can be a physical grind. He posted an exceptional 4.09 CF%Rel. Kevin Shattenkirk thrives on the power play and Chicago is vulnerable if they take too many penalties. Andrew Ladd returns to his previous team, and fills a big hole on the top LW, and will come up big alongside Jonathan Toews when it counts. Paul Stastny has played much better in his second season and could be unheralded surprise on the second line, posting 0.88 points per game since the All Star break (30-5-21-26).
Key Stats:
CF% 5v5 (war-on-ice.com): STL 51.9% (6th) CHI 50.7% (15th)
PDO (war-on-ice.com): STL 100.3 (12th) CHI 99.5 (22nd)
Power Play (NHL.com): STL 21.5% (6th) CHI 22.6% (2nd)
Penalty Kill (NHL.com): STL 85.1% (3rd) CHI 80.3% (22nd)
Goals For per-game (NHL.com): STL 2.67 (15th) CHI 2.85 (6th)
Goals Against per-game (NHL.com): STL 2.40 (4th), CHI 2.52 (1oth)
Notes: Chicago has not had much ‘puck luck’ compared to St. Louis due to a 6.7 OSh% - 4th worst in the league. The Hawks dropping to 15th in 5v5 CF% after finishing 3rd last season, 2nd in 13-14, and 1st in 12-13, representing a significant development. They and LA have largely owned the top two possession spots for the prior three season, with demonstrable results. The 2nd ranked power play vs. the 3rd ranked penalty kill promises to be an interesting match up. Chicago at 22nd on the penalty kill is over-matched by the 6th best power play.
]]>However, if you keep a relatively cool head it is a good time to make some trades based on early results. One of the time-tested measures for goal scorers in particular, is the number of shots they are producing, and their corresponding shooting percentage. A look at the top shot producers in the league to date uncovers some established scorers who should see the law of averages begin to work in their favour. There are some excellent sites doing some advanced work on shooting and scoring chances, but we will stick to a simpler approach for this article. Here are some suggestions to throw a buy-low offer at.
Taylor Hall on Edmonton leads the league with 39 shots, with a 7.7% shooting percentage. Not a big dip from the 8.9% he connected on last year, but down from his career shooting percentage of 11.0%.
Daniel Sedin is tied for second in the league with Tarasenko and Pacioretty with 36 shots and a meagre 5.6% shooting percentage. Well off his career average of 11.6%, but be aware he has not shot at that level since 2011-12. In the previous three seasons he has posted an 8.2% shooting percentage, as he has been producing around a twenty-goals pace. A long way from his heyday, and should temper any hope of a significant uplift.
Brent Burns leads all defenseman in shots with 35, but has only one goal, with a 2.9% shooting percentage. His past results get a little muddied by his time as a forward of the past few years, but has shot at 8.0% over the previous two seasons. Given the scoring opportunities created by his bomb from the point, it is very encouraging that he is firing away 4.4 shots a game versus 3.0 last season.
Tied for ninth with 32 shots each are Nazem Kadri, Rich Nash and Radim Vrbata with a 3.1% shooting percentage and a single goal to date. All of them are due to rebound.
Rich Nash owns a 12.4% career shooting percentage and potted 42 last season with a 13.8% success rate.
Kadri, has almost double his shot count from last season with 4.5 a game versus 2.4 last year (with a 10.2% shooting percentage).
Vrbata recently was re-united with the Sedins, and looks to be staying there. He has been firing well below his career average (9.4%), but the opportunities have been there and he is due.
Ryan Johansen (one goal in 24 games) and Nick Foligno (one goal in 30 shots) are both due. Johansen’s injury clouds things, but they are good buy-low targets. Look for a turnaround from a dismal start, with a kickstart form new coach Tortorella. Foligno may not hit the highs he did last year, but his stats will improve.
Other honourable mentions include Jakub Voracek with no goals on 28 shots. Claude Giroux sits with one assist to date, so they are likely to ignite together. Two games this week against an injured Buffalo team and one against New Jersey (playing well and not an easy out) could be the tonic.
In addition to some unexpected starts there was a slew of injury news to start the week in the NHL. Here are some key fantasy performers that will shake up line combinations and your line-up decisions.
The St. Louis Blues are early front-runners for the ‘Triage Award’ for injuries this season, having lost Patrik Berglund, Paul Stastny, Kevin Shattenkirk, Jaden Schwartz, and Robby Fabbri for periods. Schwartz being the lasts blow that will remove him from the line-up for three months. Opening opportunities for Ty Rattie and Dmitrij Jaskin to fill some much needed offensive holes. The 22-year old Rattie is off to a hot start with the Chicago Wolves with four goals and seven points in three games, in his third season with the Wolves. Here is an excerpt from his McKeen’s profile available for subscribers.
“Skilled sniper netted 17 goals in 36 games before his recall from Chicago Wolves .. scored 12 goals between his second and third assists of the season .. watched Blues postseason from press box and then was scoreless in three Calder Cup games .. crafty and slick in possession thanks to good athleticism, quick hands .. beats opponents with elusiveness and speed of execution .. flashy skater – light and nimble on his feet .. lateral agility is well above average – excels making diagonal cuts .. able to sustain speed through crossover sequences .. at times shy about driving into congested areas .. work-in-progress away from the puck .. scattered, unstructured, not a puck winner .. swerves out of coverage lanes – can be slow picking up defensive marks .. attempts low-percentage diagonal passes .. may not play regularly if he’s not in the top six”
Jori Lehtera becomes ever more central to the attack, centering the top line in the absence of Paul Stastny. He had been previously lining up with Schwartz. He skated 22:40 in the last St. Louis game, leads the team in P/60 with 3.59, and is familiar with Steen and Tarasenko. He skated 82% of his shifts in 2014-15 alongside Tarasenko. An opportunity for a sophomore breakout and significant increase of his 44-point rookie season.
Colton Pareyko has seized the opportunity opened up by Shattenkirk’s injury. He has produced five points in the last six games, including two power play points in 2:34 of average ice time. He played over 22 minutes a game for the last two and shown poise and confidence, and not afraid to rush the puck. At 6’5” and 225 pounds he looks like he belongs at the pro level.
Buffalo has lost Evander Kane for four to six weeks with a torn MCL. The Sabres have recalled forward Tim Schaller from Rochester, where he had a goal and an assist in six games. Line juggling at practice saw Nick Delauriers taking his place, but a natural goal scorer will be hard to replace on the offensively challenged Sabres, having only scored 16 goals this season in eight games. I am not sure there is a silver lining for anyone’s fantasy upside in this situation. Sam Reinhart may be the biggest beneficiary, but he has already produced solid numbers with four points in eight games.
Aleksandr Barkov is expected to be out of action for two to four weeks with a broken bone in his hand. Surgery is not required, limiting his time on the sidelines. It will affect his grip on his stick and something you will want to monitor on his return, before inserting him into your line-up. It is a blow to the Florida Panthers as he appeared to emerging as a breakout star, at both ends of the ice. Three goals and six points in seven games, picking up from the hot finish to last season alongside Jaromir Jagr and Jonathan Huberdeau. Exceptional two-way play for a third year pro.
Ryan Johansen listed as day to day, but undergoing tests. He has been plagued by low energy, and the team is insisting it is not related to his heart, after being hospitalized this summer for an accelerated heart rate according to the Columbus Dispatch.
He missed the Blue Jackets first win of the season under new coach John Totorella. I am not a big fan of Tortorella’s coaching style, but this may be a good fit in the short term to inject some energy into a moribund team. The personnel fits his style. If Johansen’s medical concerns turn out to be easily remedied, he could be an excellent buy-low target.
Detroit’s two free-agent acquisitions are now both on the shelf. Mike Green has been sidelined for two to three weeks with a shoulder injury, from a hit from Calgary’s Josh Jooris. Green had been struggling to adjust to life in Motor City, having been replaced prior to his injury on the first unit powerplay by Niklas Kronwall, as the only defenseman on the unit with four forwards, prior. He had only produced one point in seven games.
Brad Richards continues to undergo tests on his back, while not believed to be serious, the potential for continued problems this season should make you wary. Age combined with the always tricky back could make for continued difficulties.
The NHL’s three stars were led by Evgeni Kuznetsov with a spectacular nine point week. He is no longer under any radar, but has looked sensational centering Alexander Ovechkin and Oshie. The shocking thing is he could actually had more goals from his chances. He provides two dangerous scoring units, with Niklas Backstrom coming back strongly from injury with seven points in three games to skate between newcomer Justin Williams and Johansen.
The Caps look like they could be a offensive powerhouse this season, with John Carlson emerging as a bonafide superstar on the back end, and a second-ranked power play, that features two excellent distributor from the half boards in Backstrom and Kuznetsov - with some deadly finishers in Ovechkin and Oshie to feed.
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