Mark Giordano – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Mon, 09 Oct 2023 19:07:29 +0000

Review: With a 50-21-11 record, the Maple Leafs earned 111 points in 2022-2023, the second-highest point total, and fourth highest points percentage in franchise history. Although Toronto was mediocre in terms of shot attempts, ranking 12^th with 52.2% score-and-venue-adjusted Corsi, they did manage to have strong shot quality results, ranking sixth with 54.3% of expected goals. Toronto ranked 11^th with 3.40 goals per game, and for a team that gets criticized frequently for their defensive play, the Leafs finished fifth with 2.71 goals against per game. They also won a playoff series for the first time since 2003-2004 but losing in five games to Florida in the second round put a quick halt to any optimism generated by Toronto’s first-round victory over Tampa Bay. The Leafs have been a strong team, legitimate contenders, but their lack of postseason success looms over everything, and it will be that way until they start delivering results.

What’s Changed? The Maple Leafs replaced GM Kyle Dubas with Brad Treliving, previously of the Calgary Flames, and the Leafs did complete some tidy business in free agency, getting Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, Dylan Gambrell, and enforcer Ryan Reaves up front. They took a chance on veteran defenseman John Klingberg, whose defensive play has been plummeting in recent seasons, but has plenty of experience as a puck-moving blueliner who can quarterback a power play. There is obviously a focus on the Maple Leafs adding grit with Reaves, Bertuzzi, and Domi, though the potential offensive impact of Bertuzzi, Domi, and Klingberg, may be more valuable.

What would success look like? After so many years of losing in the first round, or not making the playoffs at all, the Maple Leafs have reached a point at which winning a playoff round is the minimum and for the season to be considered a success, that will likely require winning at least two rounds, some kind of postseason achievement that goes beyond their frequent disappointments. The good news for the Leafs is that they have the horses to do it. Whether they advance or not, there is little doubt that Toronto has enough talent to achieve more, but until they actually do it, questions will linger.

What could go wrong? It is possible that the Maple Leafs could have a great regular season, playing at an elite level, and they could still get bounced in the first round of the playoffs. That’s easy enough to imagine. If things were to really go wrong for Toronto, it would probably mean a long-term injury to Auston Matthews. It’s not as if the Leafs don’t have other valuable players, but Matthews is the premier goal-scorer that is most difficult to replace. Toronto has enough depth that it can handle some injuries, but if the injuries involve more than one of The Core Four, that could make it more difficult for Toronto to remain a playoff team.

Top Breakout Candidate: On a veteran-laden Maple Leafs team, rookie winger Matthew Knies is the player most likely to have a breakout season. Knies flashed exciting potential in his first taste of NHL action last season, with one assist in three regular-season games before adding four points in seven playoff games. He is a winger with good size and can be a real handful for opposing defenders when he is working down low in the offensive zone or along the boards. Knies may be ticketed for the third line to start the season but has the potential to fill a spot in the top six and if he does that, the rookie could have an instant impact.

Forwards

Auston Matthews

After becoming the first player to score 60 goals in a season in the prior 10 seasons during the 2021-22 season, Auston Matthews took a step back in 2022-23. He only managed 40 goals in 74 games this time while recording one fewer assist at 45. Perhaps, one could consider this a floor for the 26-year-old veteran. As he enters his eighth season, last season’s 12.2% shooting percentage is by far his career low. If he had shot his career average of 15.7% last season, he would have scored 51 goals on his 327 shots. While his shooting percentage may fluctuate, he has ranked no lower than sixth in the NHL in shots on goal per 60 among regular skaters over the last three seasons. Moreover, regression to the mean should not be the only thing driving a bounce-back year for Auston Matthews, as the addition of Tyler Bertuzzi in place of Michael Bunting offers Matthews another elite playmaker as a potential linemate at even strength, and a contributor on the powerplay. Matthews is entering the 2023-24 season with 299 regular season goals, and he does not want it to end with fewer than 350.

Mitchell Marner

Mitch Marner ended his seventh NHL season just one point shy of 100 – a feat he has not accomplished yet in his career thus far. The 26-year-old started his career exclusively known for his playmaking abilities. His shot was seen as weak, although his selection of shots brought him up to a respectable shooting percentage. In the 2021-22 season, Marner jumped to a 35-goal season, converting 15.6% of his shots on goal. Marner followed that up with another 30-goal season with a shooting percentage of 15.3%. This additional threat to opponents that Marner has crafted has brought his game to another level, securing his spot as one of the most dangerous offensive players in the game. It may have also contributed to Toronto’s ability to split the duo up at times. In the 2021 shortened season, Marner spent 84.7% of his 5-on-5 minutes with Matthews. Last season, he spent only 47.3% of his full-strength time with Auston Matthews, spending slightly more time with John Tavares and a combination of wingers. The defensive side of Marner’s game is also well-crafted, enabling Sheldon Keefe and the Maple Leafs coaching staff to use him on the penalty kill as well. He has been on the ice for 44.0% of the Maple Leafs shorthanded time over the last four seasons in games that he has played. The 2023-24 season could be the year Marner surpasses 100 points.

William Nylander

The 2022-23 season featured 19 players with 40 or more goals, and William Nylander was one of them. His 40 goals and 47 assists were career-highs, and his 82 games played was his second complete season of his career. While much of the narrative surrounding Nylander is that he is inconsistent, that only applies to his defensive effort and attention to detail. He has recorded around a point-per-game since seeing an increase in his powerplay usage in the 2021-22 season. He has also been a healthy player most of his career, missing the most time in the 2018-19 season where he held out from signing an extension until December. While his lack of injury history and consistent dual-threat offensive production should make projecting Nylander’s 2023-24 season rather easy, the addition of Tyler Bertuzzi could threaten his powerplay time and therefore his production. A demotion to the second powerplay unit would likely cost around 0.2 points per game. With Nylander’s contract expiring after this season, and with the Maple Leafs intending to re-sign him to an affordable price before he goes to unrestricted free agency, a tie for the first unit time probably goes to someone else.

John Tavares

John Tavares ended the 2022-23 regular season with 36 goals and 44 assists – the first time he cleared the 30-goal mark since his first season as a Maple Leaf in 2018-19. In a saturated Toronto market, the Maple Leafs captain is due to receive scrutiny. However, that scrutiny generally revolves around the comparison of how much he is paid relative to the value he provides on the ice. He ranked 30^th in points last season, and 42^nd the season prior, reflecting a player that is still very good. When the 2023-24 season gets underway, Tavares will be 33 years of age. The forward-thinking Maple Leafs have already begun reducing his time-on-ice over the years. Last season, he played 1.8 fewer minutes per game in all situations, and 2.1 fewer minutes per game at 5-on-5 than he did in the shortened 2019-20 season. The risk to his ice time being cut much further is the latest addition in Toronto of Tyler Bertuzzi. The Maple Leafs coaching staff may conclude that Bertuzzi is the better option at the front of the net on the first powerplay unit, forcing Tavares to win a spot at the bumper or move to the second unit. While it may be best for the team, a demotion off the first powerplay unit would hurt Tavares’ individual stats dramatically.

Tyler Bertuzzi

Tyler Bertuzzi likely entered his contract year in Detroit knowing it would be his last there. He would also miss two of his last five months with the Red Wings out with upper body injuries, the latest being a wrist injury in December. On March 2, Bertuzzi was sent to Boston to chase a Cup with the Boston Bruins. There, he would find success with David Pastrnak. His playmaking abilities from all areas of the offensive zone at even strength and on the powerplay made a dangerous Bruins offense even more dangerous. Bertuzzi was able to score four goals and 12 assists in 21 games with the Bruins as opposed to his four goals and 10 assists in 29 games with the Red Wings. With the lethal shooters that the Maple Leafs have, Bertuzzi’s gritty playmaking style will fit right in. He could be a reasonable option for the first powerplay unit, as the Bruins saw with Jake DeBrusk out of their lineup. The question surrounding Bertuzzi is how much his shooting percentage will rebound. Bertuzzi converted over 16% of his shots on goal in each season from 2018-19 thru 2021. Last season he shot only 7.5% and suffered a wrist injury. If his recent wrist injury has hampered his shooting form, the Leafs did not sign the 30-goal scorer from the 2021-22 season, but a much lesser version of Tyler Bertuzzi.

Max Domi

Following the 2019-20 season, Max Domi left Montreal for a two-year contract in Columbus. Despite the Blue Jackets team lacking forward depth, particularly at center, Domi immediately saw a two minute drop in time on ice per game. During the 2021-22 season, he was traded to the Hurricanes for their playoff run, before signing a one-year contract to be a rental again, going from Chicago to Dallas. Last season could’ve been considered a slight revival for the 5’ 10” forward, scoring 20 goals for the second time in his career. This was partially due to being a shark in a small pond, seeing a hefty amount of powerplay minutes and receiving ice time while behind on a tanking Chicago roster. His biggest weakness is his poor defensive play. This is something that caused him headaches in Columbus and could cause headaches once again with Sheldon Keefe. He is also not an individual play-driver, passing the puck to teammates too quickly at times. And his career faceoff percentage of 48.2% is far from optimal. The Maple Leafs are hoping that Domi can be an effective middle-six passenger at even strength, and a staple on their second powerplay unit. With that, he should see his minutes drop back down again this season, as well as his point total.

David Kampf

For his third season in a row, David Kampf did not miss a single game last season. He also posted another new career-high with 27 points in his 82 games. New general manager Brad Treliving must have thought so highly of the Czech forward that he signed him to a four-year extension in June, days prior to him entering unrestricted free agency. Toronto acquired Kampf from Chicago as a distressed asset in 2021, after he scored only a single goal in 56 games. The Maple Leafs turned around and used him as a staple defensive center in their bottom six. He is a smart player with efficient skating. That duo has led to his success at even strength as well as on the penalty kill. He won’t offer much offensive flare, only crossing 100 career points in his sixth season, but his health, ability to stay out of the box, effectiveness in the faceoff circle, and dependability on the defensive side of the game will keep him in the lineup for years to come. And while you shouldn’t expect too much, perhaps he has a few goals left in him this season.

Calle Jarnkrok

After eight seasons with the Nashville Predators, the Seattle Kraken selected Calle Jarnkrok in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. In his last season in Nashville, he recorded 28 points in 49 games, the highest pace of his career. As a part of an underperforming Seattle team, and a deep Calgary team that pushed him down the lineup, the Swede would fall back to 30 points in 66 games. However, when he explored free agency, Toronto showed interest, signing him to a four-year contract. With the Maple Leafs, Jarnkrok is expected to be an effective, dependable passenger to play-driving linemates. He bounced around from linemate-to-linemate last season, spending no more than 33.9% of his minutes with any forward. He spent some time alongside John Tavares and Auston Matthews with Mitch Marner, but also played down on the third line with the likes of Pierre Engvall and Alex Kerfoot. He scored 20 goals for the first time in his career last season, but he had a massive jump in shooting percentage at 18.9% compared to a career 12.5%. Will his linemates be able to keep his production high, possibly helping him break 40 points, or will he regress back this season?

Sam Lafferty

A fourth-round pick in the 2014 NHL Draft, Pennsylvania-native Sam Lafferty scrapped his way into the Pittsburgh Penguins lineup, playing 50 games in his rookie season in 2019-20. However, it was a move to the Blackhawks early in the 2021-22 season that would help Lafferty break out and make a name for himself in the league. In Chicago, Lafferty would become a regular penalty killer. After scoring four goals and an assist in 99 shorthanded minutes in Chicago last season, the Maple Leafs traded for his services for their playoff run. His breakout wasn’t just limited to his penalty killing prowess, but respectable production at even strength as well, tallying 12 goals and 15 assists in all situations. Lafferty is a speedy bottom six forward, posing a threat to opposing defensemen trying to move the play up the ice against him. His speed may also give him the opportunity to find a spot on the third line at either wing or center in the case of injuries. However, with a healthy lineup, Lafferty should see a slight fall in his production, moving down the lineup in a more defensive role with the Maple Leafs as opposed to the unassigned role with a tanking Blackhawks team.

Defense

Morgan Rielly

Following the November 21^st game against the Islanders, news broke that Morgan Rielly was expected to miss six weeks with a knee injury. His main competition on the roster, Rasmus Sandin, would see an increase in minutes in his absence. The young, Swedish defensemen would play well with the increased minutes, scoring two goals and six assists in the 13 games he played before sustaining a small injury himself. Sandin’s offensive skill set on the back end posed a threat to Rielly’s powerplay and even strength usage. However, come trade deadline, Kyle Dubas and the Toronto Maple Leafs elected to move Rasmus Sandin for a first-round pick and a rental. With Sandin gone, there is even more certainty that Morgan Rielly will own the greatest share of powerplay minutes amongst his teammates on the back end. This offers security to his production, as Rielly has not had fewer than a half a point per game since the 2016-17 season where he only recorded 72 minutes on the powerplay. Morgan Rielly has been seen as the best offensive defenseman on the Maple Leafs roster for some time now, and Toronto reassured their view of that last season.

John Klingberg

Following the 2021-22 season, John Klingberg tested free agency for the first time after not coming to an agreement with the Dallas Stars. With only a small increase in the cap, a market for a long-term extension at the price he wanted dried up. His solution was a one-year deal with the Anaheim Ducks, with the understanding he’d likely move to a playoff team come trade deadline. Unfortunately for Klingberg, he is left with another one-year deal, but on a contending team this time. The 6’ 3” Swedish defenseman has the box score stats of a defenseman who normally would sign long term. And while market conditions may have forced him into a short-term deal again, his extremely poor defensive play has also reduced his market value. Klingberg is looking for a bit of a revival in Toronto. A once free to roam, mobile defenseman became trapped in conservative and unorganized systems at the end of his tenure in Dallas and his short time in Anaheim and Montreal. With a system that is likely a better fit, and a reduction in his usage, Klingberg could find success on the bottom two pairs and on the second powerplay unit.

Timothy Liljegren

After a breakout rookie season with the Maple Leafs in 2021-22, Timothy Liljegren followed it up with much of the same. He scored six goals and 12 assists in 67 games this time, a five point decrease from the year before due to six fewer secondary assists. Liljegren is arguably the best puck-mover on the right-hand side of Toronto’s defensive core, electing to move the puck away from his own net as soon as possible as his main form of defending. But his lack of traditional defending and physical nature is one of the reasons the Maple Leafs coaching staff hasn’t allocated more minutes to him in the past. Liljegren did see a slight uptick in both even strength and special teams minutes last season, but his security in a top four spot was not there as witnessed by being scratched in the playoffs. With Justin Holl out of the picture, Liljegren’s competition for that secured spot will be John Klingberg. If he can prove that he is worthy of taking a spot from a fellow Swede seven years his senior, he could make a big jump. If he fails to do so, at least in the eyes of his coaching staff, then we can expect more of the same from Liljegren, or even a move at the deadline.

Jake McCabe

After missing most of the 2021 season due to injury, Jake McCabe left the Buffalo Sabres for the Chicago Blackhawks in unrestricted free agency. In his first season in Chicago, he would set a career-high 22 points for himself in 75 games. Last season, he finished with another career-high with 25 points in 76 games split between Chicago and Toronto. Jake McCabe earns his NHL minutes with his defensive prowess. He has received top four minutes at even strength and is a main stay on the penalty kill. His 151 blocked shots ranked 21^st among defensemen last season, and his 163 hits ranked 23^rd. Playing his first full season in Toronto, McCabe can expect to take the heavy minutes with defensive zone deployment and tough matchups. In his 350 minutes in Toronto last spring, he spent 169 with fellow defensive-defenseman TJ Brodie. However, he spent limited minutes with Timothy Liljegren who may complement his style of play by assisting with breaking out the puck and following through in transition with the forwards. There is a chance that McCabe’s point production falls if he is put in a dramatic role, but his time on ice will certainly be high.

Goaltending

Ilya Samsonov

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in an intriguing situation to start the 2023-24 season in net, and Ilya Samsonov remains just one piece of the somewhat uncertain puzzle.

Samsonov is quick on his feet, prefers to keep his body moving as he challenges plays, and still maintains the wider stance that has characterized his game – and set it apart from so many other goaltenders in the NHL – since he first crossed the pond as a Washington Capitals prospect. That makes him fast, exciting, and good at accessing some of those higher-danger shots that slower and more methodical goaltenders just don’t seem capable of reaching. But it also makes him less predictable, both for opponents and from a statistical standpoint. And although he finished last season with one of the league’s most respectable save percentages, he remained a little too injury-plagued to feel altogether comfortable tabbing him as a long-term option for success in Toronto. He’s the reclamation project that came out on top, with tandem partner Matt Murray likely out of the picture entirely, but he’s still not a sure shot for Toronto. It seems the team knows that, too; while they could have started the season with just him and wunderkind Joseph Woll as their options to roll out, the cap-strapped Leafs went out and brought in some veteran insurance at the last minute in the form of yet another reclamation project. Martin Jones will join Woll and Samsonov to start the season, and while he’s likely the odd man out, the fact that Toronto signed him in the first place suggests that they aren’t completely sold on the tandem they have to work with just yet.

Projected starts: 40-45

Joseph Woll

It seems all but impossible that Toronto goaltending prospect Joseph Woll would clear waivers if the Leafs tried to hide him away in the AHL for another season, and his lack of waiver exemption status this year forces their hand a bit; it’s do or die time for the team and the former Boston College standout.

That’s not super concerning from a technical standpoint, since Woll has been one of the most impressive young goaltenders in North America for a handful of years now. He was the confident and collected predecessor at BC to Spencer Knight, controlling his crease at the collegiate level in a way that suggested he’d be a perfect candidate to make a short stop in the minors before taking over at the NHL level almost immediately upon going pro. Then, he suffered multiple consecutive injuries, and his development arc derailed just enough that Toronto was left scrambling; now, they’re stuck trying to navigate a need to get him into games, a starter who has been streaky over his career both in numbers and in health, and an aging Martin Jones who hasn’t hit league average stats in over half a decade. The good news, though, is that he plays the kind of game that should make it easy for Toronto to integrate him into their lineup whenever they need; he plays a game that focuses on keeping control of his depth and angles from his feet in order to eliminate the need for extra movement, serving as an interesting foil to Samsonov’s wild style. It’s unclear just what Toronto wants his role to be next year, but we’re likely only a season or two away from seeing Joseph Woll as the team’s clear-cut number one – it’s just a matter of figuring out how Toronto wants to handle the passing of the torch.

Projected starts: 30-35

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS FLORIDA PANTHERS – A path opens up in the East for fortunate Leafs and surprising Panthers

Scott Cullen — Mon, 01 May 2023 17:28:02 +0000

TORONTO, ON - MARCH 29: Florida Panthers center Aleksander Barkov (16) plays the puck against Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) in the third period during the NHL regular season game between the Florida Panthers and the Toronto Maple Leafs on March 29, 2023 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Gavin Napier/Icon Sportswire)

TORONTO vs. FLORIDA

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2004 and have home ice advantage after the Florida Panthers pulled off a massive upset against the top-seeded Boston Bruins in the first round.

Now that they have broken the first-round seal, are the Maple Leafs ready to go on a Stanley Cup run? Can the Panthers carry their first-round magic forward? Ousting the Lightning and the Bruins, respectively, opens up potential opportunities for the team that can emerge from the Atlantic Division.

Forwards

Toronto’s high-priced forwards have taken plenty of criticism over the years for not rising to the occasion in the playoffs, but Toronto’s big dogs showed up against Tampa Bay. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander produced 13 goals and 34 points against Tampa Bay. The supporting cast matters but getting production from the stars at the top of the depth chart sets the foundation for a team to achieve success.

One of Toronto’s apparent strengths is that they have solid contributors beyond the core four. Ryan O’Reilly contributed seven points in the first round and Calle Jarnkrok moved up to play with Matthews and Marner. Rookie Matthew Knies added three assists and the Leafs controlled 57.4% of expected goals with him on the ice during five-on-five play.

Michael Bunting was suspended for three games in the series against Tampa Bay, then was a healthy scratch for Game 5, so he has more to offer, and it might be further down the depth chart because Toronto’s fourth line of Zach Aston-Reese, David Kampf, and Sam Lafferty managed 35.9% of shot attempts and 32.9% of expected goals during five-on-five play against Tampa Bay.

Matthew Tkachuk had an incredible season for the Panthers and carried that play into the playoffs against Boston. The Panthers’ winger put up 11 points and 22 shots on goal in the first round, with Florida controlling 63.4% of expected goals against Boston when Tkachuk was on the ice during five-on-five play. The Maple Leafs will need to find a solution to the problem that Tkachuk presents as a skilled and physical force.

Sam Bennett got into the Boston series in Game 2 and was an impact performer, with five points and 20 shots on goal in six games. Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, Eetu Luostarinen, and Anton Lundell all played solid contributing roles against the Bruins.

Maybe the most surprising part for Florida is that Aleksander Barkov had a hard time against Boston. He produced one goal and six points, but the Panthers only held 40.4% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Barkov on the ice. For a Panthers team that tends to lean on their stars, Barkov will need to elevate his game if they are going to advance.

Defense

After an up-and-down regular season, Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly stepped up and delivered an outstanding series against Tampa Bay. Rielly had three goals and eight points against Tampa Bay with Toronto getting 56.7% of expected goals and outscoring the Lightning 9-3 during five-on-five play with Rielly on the ice. Luke Schenn was frequently paired with Rielly and while Schenn struggled late in the regular season, he was excellent against Tampa Bay, with Toronto pulling 61.1% of expected goals with Schenn on the ice.

T.J. Brodie and Jake McCabe are an effective shutdown pair for Toronto, with McCabe providing a necessary physical element. Schenn and McCabe combined for 66 hits in the first round.

The third pairing was a trouble spot for Toronto against Tampa Bay. Justin Holl and Mark Giordano had just 40.0% of expected goals during five-on-five play and the Leafs were out-scored 9-2 during five-on-five play when Holl was on the ice against Tampa Bay. As a result, Timothy Liljegren and Erik Gustafsson were pressed into action in Game 6. It would make sense for Toronto to give Liljegren a chance to upgrade that pairing but it would not be a surprise for Holl to get a fresh start against the Panthers.

Brandon Montour’s breakout season continued in the first round against Boston. The right-shot blueliner put up five goals and eight points with 22 shots on goal. His confidence is soaring, and he is always ready to launch one-timers from the point on the power play. Montour has been paired with Marc Staal so that duo is vulnerable during five-on-five play. They had 40.5% of expected goals and were outscored 6-3 against the Bruins.

Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling formed an effective shutdown pair against Boston, controlling 55.1% of expected goals while the Panthers outscored the Bruins 8-2 with that duo on the ice during five-on-five play.

Josh Mahura was an under-the-radar pleasant surprise for Florida in the first round. Acquired off waivers from the Anaheim Ducks before the start of the season, Mahura averaged less than 11 minutes per game against Boston, but the Panthers earned 54.4% of shot attempts and 63.2% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Mahura on the ice. Radko Gudas stands out as the heavy hitter on this blueline, but he is somewhat vulnerable if he gets caught out there against speedy and skilled forwards.

Toronto’s group is steadier overall, but both teams have some question marks on the back end, which could ultimately cause problems.

Goaltending

Although he experienced some highs and lows against Tampa Bay, Ilya Samsonov ultimately picked up his first career playoff series victory. His save percentage was just .900, and he let in a few soft goals, but he had stellar performances in Game 3 and Game 6. Given his lack of a playoff track record, there is still plenty of uncertainty around Samsonov heading into this series, but he is clearly Toronto’s number one option with Joseph Woll in the backup role.

The Panthers opened the playoffs with Alex Lyon starting in goal against Boston and he had a .902 save percentage in three games, but Florida eventually turned to Sergei Bobrovsky, who is a high-wire act at this point.

Bobrovsky was erratic in games four and six against Boston and was excellent in game five and seven, ultimately backstopping the Panthers to three straight wins to finish the series. Bobrovsky has a .900 save percentage in 56 career playoff games, including .891 in five appearances this spring, so he is not an easy man to trust under these circumstances.

Goaltending is always important in the postseason, but it would be fair to say that both the Maple Leafs and Panthers have some uncertainty at the position heading into Round 2.

Special Teams

Toronto’s power play was among the best during the regular season and that carries over into the playoffs. During five-on-four play, the Leafs scored 12.48 goals per 60 minutes, ranking fifth among 16 playoff teams in the first round. Toronto’s big boys were firing on the power play, with Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, and O’Reilly all getting on the board against the Lightning.

Florida was closer to the middle of the pack, ranking ninth with 7.60 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. Tkachuk led the way with five power play points and Montour added a pair of power play goals against the Bruins.

Tampa Bay’s power play posed a problem for the Maple Leafs in the first round, scoring 10.92 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranked 10^th. However, that was still more successful than the Panthers, who allowed 15.31 goals per 60 minutes, ranking 13^th among playoff teams. A compounding issue for Florida is that they were one of three teams in the first round to spend more than six minutes per game playing four-on-five. By comparison, the Maple Leafs averaged 4:34 per game. That discipline could make a difference.

Conclusion

Toronto had some good fortune against Tampa Bay, picking up three overtime wins, including some in games that they did not necessarily deserve to win. For a team that is now a co-favorite to win the Stanley Cup and had a long drought of not winning a playoff series, they are in good position, but can hardly afford to look past the Panthers.

While Florida’s upset of the Bruins seems monumental because Boston just put up the most regular season points in history, the underlying numbers suggested that Florida was better than their place in the standings and they caught enough breaks to make the difference. If they could do that against Boston, who is to say that is couldn’t happen against Toronto? I’ll side with the Maple Leafs…cautiously. Maple Leafs in 6.

NHL: SZNAJDER – Defenseman moved at the NHL deadline – Puck-movers, retrievers and roster reshuffling

Corey Sznajder — Fri, 10 Mar 2023 15:52:26 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 01: Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Mattias Ekholm (14) in his first game as an Oilers defends his zone in the first period of the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Toronto Maple Leads on March 1, 2023 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

The trade deadline always brings out some interesting team philosophies. Sometimes it’s as simple as getting the best player available like the Devils getting Timo Meier or Toronto adding Ryan O’Reilly with the Blues falling out of the playoff race early. Then there’s those moves around the margins that look like depth adds at first glance but can really payoff in the post-season. Vegas adding Ivan Barbashev to bolster their forward depth being a good example of that.

It's always interesting to see which players teams target at the deadline and what skillsets they value heading into a playoff run. This is especially true with defensemen, which is probably the biggest game of “choose your own adventure” in hockey. Good team defense is more about having all five players dialed in and understanding their assignments, but the two blue liners are always going to shoulder more of the burden even if it’s not always their fault. This is where teams run into problems at the deadline.

Everyone wants to add defensemen, but there’s a bigger risk of not getting what you bargained for when you’re taking someone from a different system and making him play 20+ minutes a night in high leverage situations. Sometimes you get situations like Ben Chiarot on the Florida Panthers last year, where a defenseman who is more suited to patrol the front of the net and deliver hits is playing in a system where most of the game is played off the rush. It becomes fitting a square peg into a round hole and becomes a part of a roster you have to work around instead of playing to your strengths. Compare that to Tampa Bay getting David Savard two years ago, who was mostly asked to kill penalties and play lower in the lineup with Mikhail Sergachev as his safety valve, and it’s a much more natural situation where a player with a specific skillset is filling a certain role.

It’s tough to avoid these pitfalls because everyone looks for different skillsets in defensemen and it becomes more difficult the fill gaps higher in the lineup. A guy who can make a beautiful stretch pass and put up points on the power play might not be suited to play over 20 minutes a night against top lines while the defender who hits hard but struggles to move the puck might hinder your team’s offense. A defender who might be good at defending zone entries could be benefitting from a system that has a tight neutral zone forecheck or help from forwards. It becomes a complicated puzzle that can either win or cost you a playoff series.

Something that most defensemen eventually have to do, though is retrieve the puck. Whether it’s chasing a dump-in, getting it off the wall or freeing the puck for a teammate, clean puck retrievals are how most games are decided. In this study looking at every goal scored in the 2021-22 season, about 65% of five-on-five goals scored off the rush started in the defensive zone, with 32.5% coming off a retrieval against a forecheck. In addition to that, 42% of all five-on-five goals last year were scored off an offensive zone turnover or a retrieval, which shows the importance in this part of the game. Even if you’re not starting a rush, negating a forecheck or flipping possession can be just as important, especially with defending the lead.

Defensemen are always going to be heavily involved in this part of the game regardless of their skillset and it’s where chemistry and complementary skillsets can really make a difference. One defenseman can take the hit while the other makes the play, or one can stand up at the blue line while the other goes back to clear the puck. We can start to see the value of things like “making a good first pass” or “making the forwards job easier.” Few players demonstrate this better than Edmonton Oilers deadline pickup Matthias Ekholm:

A mainstay in Nashville for years, he’s had a pretty thankless role of soaking up some of the tougher minutes so that Roman Josi can spend as much time as possible way from forecheck pressure and in the offensive zone. He’s part of the newer wave of shutdown defensemen who use their skating, their reach and their agility to kill plays before they start (although he will block a lot of shots if he has to). He is one of the few that’s the complete package, because he could put up zero points and still bring you some value with how strong he is along the wall with killing plays.

The first clip shows what the Oilers are probably going to see the most reward from. Ekholm’s very good at taking the puck from a dead stop and making long, quick passes out of the zone to either lead the rush or flip possession. It might have more of a reward in Edmonton with McDavid on the receiving end of those passes than Nashville’s forward corps, so it’s easy to see the potential upside here. The other side of this is how good he is at drawing defenders to him and getting rid of the puck right as they’re about to check him. Using that strong upper-body to absorb contact and bait defenders into being over-aggressive on the forecheck.

The puck skill, however, is where the Oilers can reap the most value out of him. Their blue line isn’t bad but doesn’t have a lot of great passers out of the zone. This is where Ekholm might be able to add a dimension to the Oilers offense. Everyone knows how good McDavid is, but Ekholm getting him the puck could make it less of a one-man show and more of a quick-strike. Whether it can work in the playoffs remains to be seen, but Ekholm should be able to help Edmonton’s top guns catch other teams off line changes and work together in the offensive zone a little more than they do now. Tyson Barrie gave them some of that but was limited to a power play specialist after a while because he’s best as the second player in the rush rather than the one starting it.

Here we see both sides of what Ekholm can do for Edmonton’s transition game. He’s aggressive with how he defends the blue line, using his skates and his reach to kill plays and he’s very good at getting back to retrieve the puck himself to start the rush. This is a skill the Oilers don’t really have on their blue line right now and it’s not particularly easy to find either. The other thing is how he can cover for his partner struggling to get the puck out of the zone, in this case he rescues a botched exit from young Phillip Broberg to help the Oilers get out of the zone cleanly. He’s capable of playing both sides and making plays from awkward positions, so you can see how this was a perfect fit for Edmonton. Ekholm is going to be asked to stay back more times than not, but he’s such a good passer and a smart player that it shouldn’t negate his skillset.

With Ekholm, the fit with the Oilers is clear. It’s not as easy with some other teams, namely the Toronto Maple Leafs who completely shuffled the deck on their blue line. Out goes Rasmus Sandin, in comes Luke Schenn, Jake McCabe and Erik Gustafsson. Toronto has been trying to find a winning formula in the playoffs for ages and they are no short of options with nine defensemen currently on the roster. The big move is essentially replacing Sandin with McCabe, as Schenn and Gustafsson are likely just role players for now (although it’s nice to have NHLers waiting in the wings if injuries strike).

Players like McCabe are probably the toughest to get a read on if you don’t watch them every night. He has the reputation as a minute-eater, spending most of his career playing a top-four role on bad Buffalo and Chicago teams but he’s one of those players that’s more like a Rorschach Test for hockey fans because he spends so much time in his own zone. Some appreciate his skill while others focus on the mistakes. What is interesting is Leafs GM Kyle Dubas mentioned his puck-moving as a skill they valued in addition to his competitiveness. Basically, filling the Jake Muzzin role of a sizeable defenseman who isn’t a butcher with the puck.

Every team could use a player like that in theory, but what do the puck retrieval stats say and how does it work in the context of the Leaf’s defense?

So, this kind of backs up what Dubas is saying. McCabe’s very capable with the puck, he just struggled when he had to be the one going back to retrieve it. He was also pretty good at mitigating damage off the rush on a bad Chicago team, so that should bode well. This is also where he’s stood out the most in his first couple of games with the Leafs and you can see some of the qualities Dubas talked about.

McCabe isn’t going to totally kill the play when the rush is happening at full speed, but he’s engaging enough to disrupt Grade A scoring chances. The puck has to go through a couple of layers before it gets to the net and the Toronto goalies are only going to have to square up to one shot if he plays everything perfectly. You can also see him going for contact whenever a forward touches the puck and always looking for something to do to make the cycle harder instead of just patrolling the front of the net. The only downside is that Brodie might have to shoulder the burden with getting to pucks if McCabe is always going to be chasing the play, but it’s only been a few games so he should have time to adapt.

It’s an interesting playstyle for a defenseman more known for blocking shots because he’s more of the secondary/support mold than someone who’s going to be the first one back to take a hit. How he fits into Toronto’s depth chart is a little more encouraging.

If there’s a positive here, it’s that Toronto isn’t short on defenseman who can retrieve the puck. Brodie has been one of the better players in the league at this for most of his career and this is probably where McCabe ends up slotting long-term. Whether it’s a true shutdown pair or a duo that’s just soaking up defensive minutes remains to be seen, but the complementary skillsets appear to be there on paper. The rest of the lineup might be a bit of trial and error for Toronto. It seems like they’re putting a lot of faith in Justin Holl to continue being Morgan Rielly’s safety valve as Timothy Liljegren and Mark Giordano give them some decent puck-moving on the third pair. McCabe-Brodie could end up playing more of a factor than they pictured in another month.

What’s interesting is that Sandin brought some of the same qualities to the Leafs, but Toronto might value McCabe’s size and tenacity more in the playoffs. Teams are looking for whatever edge they can in the playoffs and the Leafs top priority seemed to be focused around building a pure shutdown pair with some puck-moving capabilities. They lose some passing skill with Sandin leaving, but maybe they saw that as a luxury and wanted more of an aggressive defender who can make a quick 10–15-foot pass instead than someone who is going to skate his way out of trouble. Whether or not this pays off depends if McCabe’s struggles in retrieving pucks is more from playing on a bad Chicago team than his own skill deteriorating. There’s also some value in minimizing damage when you can’t get to pucks or are up against a tough forecheck. That seems to be where McCabe will have the most value.

Retrievals are one area of the game you can’t really hide from, so it will be interesting to see how this works in action come April. Toronto is putting a lot of faith in blending complementary skillsets together without one star and their postseason fate is going to heavily depend on how their defense holds up in this area.

Stats are from allthreezones.com

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Players Making Noise in Training Camp

Scott Cullen — Fri, 07 Oct 2022 14:29:37 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

Before the puck drops on the regular season, a look at some players that have made noise in training camp and preseason and might be able to contribute this season. In most cases, these players would have more appeal in deep leagues but, at the very least, it is worth keeping an eye on how they develop during the season.

WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 26: Panthers center Anton Lundell (15) skates during the Florida Panthers versus Washington Capitals National Hockey League game on November 26, 2021 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

#1. Florida Panthers center Anton Lundell had a strong rookie season, putting up 44 points in 65 games, and it would be natural to expect continued improvement from the 21-year-old pivot. There is the possibility, though, that he moves up the depth chart and is not centering the third line but possibly centering the second line or even skating on the wing alongside Aleksander Barkov on Florida’s top line. That creates the possibility of Lundell’s production spiking in his second season if the circumstances play out in his favor.

#2. The ninth pick in the 2020 Draft by the Minnesota Wild, center Marco Rossi had his 2020-2021 season undone by COVID-19 then put up 53 points in 63 AHL games last season. With the Wild needing players on entry level deals to contribute, the opportunity is there for Rossi, and he is making the most of it. Not only does he have eight points in four preseason games, but he has recently been given a shot to play on the top line between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello.

#3. After missing most of the 2021-2022 season, Ottawa Senators center Shane Pinto is healthy and looking like he could be a contributor to an improved Sens attack this season. Pinto has eight points in 17 career games and looks like he will start the season as Ottawa’s third-line center, but he will also get power play time and has the skill to move up in the lineup, if needed.

#4. Right winger Luke Kunin contributed 13 goals and 22 points for the Nashville Predators last season, adding 223 hits in 82 games. Those hit totals moved Kunin into the realm of fantasy relevance but, after a trade to the Sharks, it looks like he could have even more appeal to start the 2022-2023 season. Kunin is starting the season skating on the right wing of San Jose’s top line, alongside Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl, a legitimate opportunity to increase his offensive output.

#5. Drafted 14^th overall in 2020 by the Edmonton Oilers, Dylan Holloway is doing his best to force the Oilers to keep him on the roster. The University of Wisconsin product had 22 points in 33 AHL games last season as a rookie pro and appeared in one playoff game for Edmonton. He has put up four goals and six points in four preseason games in his bid to make Edmonton’s opening night lineup.

#6. Buffalo Sabres center Dylan Cozens has produced 51 points in 120 games through his first two seasons, but developed his game last season, with better possession results leading to improved scoring. The next step for Cozens is to have his shooting percentage pick up. It was 7.7% last season, on his way to 13 goals, but if the 21-year-old continues to improve and that shooting percentage improves, 20 goals should be within his grasp.

#7. The Boston Bruins were already facing a potentially difficult start to the season with injuries to Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy, and Matt Grzelcyk, but Taylor Hall has joined them in the infirmary with an upper-body injury. That will open up more of an opportunity for Pavel Zacha, who was acquired from New Jersey in the offseason. Zacha scored a career-high 36 points in 70 games for the Devils last season but is now looking at a chance to start the season playing on a line with David Krejci and David Pastrnak, two gifted offensive players, and that raises Zacha’s offensive ceiling.

#8. The sixth pick in the 2018 Draft, Filip Zadina has been mostly underwhelming to this point in his career, managing 61 points in 160 games for the Detroit Red Wings. He has scored on just 7.6% of his shots, which is quite low for a scoring winger. With Derek Lalonde taking over behind the Red Wings bench, Zadina gets something of a fresh start and with Detroit upgrading their roster in the offseason, there is a better chance for Zadina to contribute secondary offense.

#9. Highly touted defenseman Nils Lundkvist did not have the kind of North American debut that he had hoped for last season, producing four points in 25 games for the New York Rangers and 15 points in 34 games for Hartford of the American Hockey League. Traded to the Dallas Stars, Lundkvist has a new opportunity to make his mark in the NHL and he has put 13 shots on goal in four preseason contests. While he is not worthy of widespread fantasy interest now, it is worth tracking Lundkvist’s progress with his new team.

#10. Landing on a rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks squad, Max Domi is seeking a new opportunity after he had 39 points in 72 games last season, playing a career-low 13:02 per game in a season that started with the Columbus Blue Jackets and ended with the Carolina Hurricanes. With Chicago, Domi has the chance to skate on a line with Patrick Kane and possibly Andreas Athanasiou. While that line has its flaws, they may be able to generate some offense and Domi should see an uptick in ice time because there just are not that many good options available in Chicago.

#11. After scoring a career-high 19 goals and 43 points for Pittsburgh last season, Evan Rodrigues could not secure a free agent contract until he signed with Colorado in September. That could turn out to be a nice fit for Rodrigues and the Avalanche because with Gabriel Landeskog out at the start of the season, Rodrigues could open the season in Colorado’s top six. Rodrigues played a career-high 15:50 per game last season and his shot rate jumped to 2.96 shots per game. If he has a regular role in Colorado, there will be opportunities for him to score.

#12. Veteran winger Tomas Tatar had just 30 points in 76 games for the New Jersey Devils last season, tying his career-low, set in just 50 games the season before. His 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage last season was 6.8%, the lowest of his career, so Tatar should be able to count on some positive regression in that sense. He is a six-time 20-goal scorer who has scored more than 55 points three times in his career. With the Devils’ forward group improving, Tatar could either get bumped down the depth chart or he could thrive with more talent around him.

#13. He is 39 years old and will not be quarterbacking the first power play unit in Toronto, but defenseman Mark Giordano had 12 points in 20 games for the Maple Leafs after he was acquired from Seattle before the trade deadline last season. He also had 41 blocked shots and 29 hits in those 20 games, so he can still be a considerable factor for a Maple Leafs team that should still be one of the best in the league this season.

#14. The Tampa Bay Lightning can move their forwards around the lineup, but it is worth tracking Vladislav Namestnikov, the 29-year-old who is returning to where his NHL career began. Namestnikov has recently been getting a look on Tampa Bay’s top line, with Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov and while Namestnikov has only had one season in his career with more than 35 points, anyone getting the chance to play with Stamkos and Kucherov is deserving of fantasy consideration.

#15. Acquired by the Vancouver Canucks in the trade that sent Jonathan Dahlen to San Jose, right winger Linus Karlsson produced 26 goals and 46 points in 52 games for Skelleftea of the Swedish Hockey League last season. The 22-year-old may not be NHL ready yet, but he has finishing skill and if the Canucks have forward openings – Brock Boeser and Ilya Mikheyev are currently dealing with injuries – maybe Karlsson gets a longer look in Vancouver.

#16. Just last week, I was writing about the potential of Nashville Predators right winger Philip Tomasino, the second year forward who has the potential to move into a scoring role with the Preds. That might take some time, however, since he is going to be a healthy scratch to start the season, with Kiefer Sherwood earning a spot in the opening game lineup ahead of Tomasino. Sherwood is a 27-year-old who has scored 18 points and recorded 155 hits in 87 career NHL games, but he has the right-wing job on Nashville’s second line to start the season.

#17. The Florida Panthers signed goaltender Spencer Knight to a three-year, $13.5 million contract extension, an indication that the Panthers see Knight as their starting goaltender of the future, but he could become the goaltender of the present, too. The 13^th pick in the 2019 Draft, Knight has a .909 save percentage in 36 NHL games, so he is just getting started, but if Sergei Bobrovsky falters, the Panthers should have little hesitation about giving Knight a bigger share of the starts this season.

#18. A potential backup goaltender on what will likely be a bad team is hardly the stuff of fantasy championships but have an eye on Samuel Ersson of the Philadelphia Flyers. A fifth-round pick in 2018, Ersson has impressed in training camp and preseason action. He had a .904 save percentage in 78 SHL games before getting into a handful of AHL games last season. His development might be better suited to the AHL, where he can play a lot, but it is possible that Ersson wins the job backing up Carter Hart in Philadelphia.

#19. A first-round pick by the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2020, Yegor Chinakhov produced a modest 14 points in 62 games as a rookie last season. The Blue Jackets have some talent on the wings, which could make it difficult for Chinakhov to move into a scoring role, but he does have five goals in five preseason games, production that could help him secure a better spot on the depth chart for his sophomore season.

#20. Looking for a chance to resurrect his career, Sam Steel is getting that opportunity with the Minnesota Wild. The 24-year-old, who was a first-round pick in 2016, had 65 points in 197 games with the Anaheim Ducks, but they did not give him a qualifying offer following last season, casting him into the free agent waters. Steel has five points in four preseason games and has recently been getting a chance to skate on a line with Fredrick Gaudreau and Matt Boldy, which is a solid opportunity for a player who scored a ton in junior but has yet to take that junior production and see it translate to the NHL.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:49:24 +0000

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 26: Toronto Maple Leafs Center Auston Matthews (34) watches the replay of his 60th goal with Right Wing Mitchell Marner (16) during a break in the action during the regular season NHL game between the Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs on April 26, 2022 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.(Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Auston Matthews

The Hart Trophy winner, Lester Pearson winner, and back-to-back Rocket Richard winner just had career highs of 60 goals and 106 points in 73 games last season. He has 101 goals in 125 games over the past two seasons, 15 more than anyone else, which should comfortably label him as the best goal-scorer in the game now. Not only does he have an incredible release on his shot, but Matthews’ all-around game continues to improve. He had dominant possession numbers last season and generated a career-high 4.77 shots on goal per game. Matthews has rare shooting ability as it is, so if he is getting that many shots, the goals are almost inevitable. He will face criticism until his team achieves some measure of playoff success, but Matthews has reached a top tier of individual performance in the regular season. Another 60-goal, 100-point season is within range for Matthews, and it should not be taken for granted how exceptional it is that he can score goals at this rate.

Mitch Marner

Perhaps the ideal complement to Matthews on the Maple Leafs’ top line, Marner is a creative and confident playmaker who primarily fills the setup role but also increased his own shot output last season, averaging a career high 3.11 shots per game. In the past four seasons, Marner has accumulated 325 points, tied with Auston Matthews for eighth in total points. On top of his fantastic offensive contributions, Marner is a smart defensive player who kills penalties and, as a result, has averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game for three straight seasons. Marner is a better bet to score 30 goals now that he is shooting more and could tally 95 points. If he manages to stay healthy for a full season, a 100-point season is possible.

John Tavares

There seemed to be a lot of criticism for the Maple Leafs captain, especially considering he just had 76 points in 79 games. His possession numbers were negative relative to his teammates for the first time since his rookie season in 2009-2010. He is still a force on the power play and remains highly effective inside the tops of the circles in the offensive zone. Now that he is on the north side of 30, decline is likely to be a factor but for a highly skilled player the decline tends to be more gradual as opposed to crashing off a cliff. For that reason, Tavares should still be a productive option as a second-line center on one of the league’s highest scoring teams. Even with some decline, 75 points is a fair expectation for Tavares.

William Nylander

A brilliant talent who can be maddening and frustrating in one moment and a delightful game-breaker the next. When Nylander is on, he is unquestionably a star player because even on a Maple Leafs team that has its share of star players, there were many nights in which Nylander was the best player on the ice. He has a knack for getting breakaways, which helps him stand out. For a player who gets dogged by his inconsistent performance, it was heartening to see Nylander as such a productive player throughout the season. His longest scoreless streak was three games, which happened on three different occasions, and he ended up with career highs of 34 goals and 80 points. As great as that season was, it is probably reasonable to expect a little less from Nylander this season, something in the range of 30 goals and 70-75 points.

Michael Bunting

A favorite of Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas since his time playing junior hockey in Sault Ste. Marie, Bunting signed as a free agent with the Maple Leafs and reveled in his opportunity to skate on the top line alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Although he barely qualified as a rookie, Bunting was the leading rookie scorer with 63 points, and he finished third in Calder Trophy voting. While Bunting does not have the all-world skill of his linemates, he is a terrific complement to them because Bunting battles hard for loose pucks and fearlessly goes to the net. Bunting is also an agitator extraordinaire, able to get under the skin of the opposition with remarkable ease, and the Maple Leafs need a player who brings that feisty style of play on a regular basis. So long as he sticks with Matthews and Marner, another 60-point season is possible for Bunting, but he does come with downward mobility because any other line is not going to afford him the same quality of scoring opportunities.

Alexander Kerfoot

Although the 28-year-old did produce a career high 51 points last season, his underlying numbers were troubling, and he generated very few shots – 1.43 per game – for a player getting the opportunity to play with skilled linemates. Kerfoot spent more time on the wing which makes sense because he had won 44.0% of his faceoffs since arriving in Toronto. His low shot rates are a concern but if Kerfoot is going to spend most of the season playing with John Tavares and William Nylander, there is still room for him to contribute secondary scoring. Maybe that’s only a dozen goals, but he should also produce more than 40 points.

Calle Jarnkrok

Versatility has long been a strength to Jarnkrok’s game, as he has the ability to play any of the three forward positions and can do it in either a complementary offensive role or more of a checking role. That allows him to fit into a team’s middle six forwards and he was reasonably effective with Seattle last season but then had zero goals and four assists in 17 games with the Calgary Flames. He added a goal and three assists in the playoffs, so he ended up scoring a single goal in 29 games for Calgary. It is not as though Jarnkrok is a big-time scorer, since he has never scored more than 16 goals in an NHL season, but that poor production was not Jarnkrok’s best performance. He has had five seasons of more than 30 points in his NHL career and if Jarnkrok is going to have a top-nine role in Toronto, he should be able to generate 30-35 points. There is a good chance that his flexibility will allow Jarnkrok to play in several different spots throughout the season, depending on where there is an urgent need.

Pierre Engvall

After getting up to speed in the NHL for a couple of seasons, the long and lean 6-foot-5 left winger broke through for 15 goals and 35 points in his third NHL campaign. That offensive production raised Engvall’s profile because now he had a path to contributing more than he could in a fourth line role. Engvall plays a sound defensive game but, as he showed last season, the 26-year-old has the required skill to play in the top nine and on the second power play unit. That is the kind of internal development that any team would like to experience with a player who was once a seventh-round pick. While Engvall’s 35-point season was better than he ever had produced in a previous NHL season, his production was not inflated by high percentages, so it is reasonable to expect Engvall to score in the 35-point range again this season.

David Kampf

An excellent checking center who scored a career high 11 goals and 26 points last season, Kampf did benefit from a career-high shooting percentage of 10.8%, which was notably higher than his career mark of 7.5%. For whatever limitations he might have in his game, Kampf does fill the niche of a fourth line center who can kill penalties and take on the toughest assignments with defensive zone starts. Any offensive projections for Kampf need to be conservative, just based on his track record, but he could still deliver 20 points for the Maple Leafs from the fourth-line center spot.

DEFENSE

Morgan Rielly

The 28-year-old blueliner has anchored the Maple Leafs defense and has played more than 23 minutes per game in each of the past four seasons. He put up 10 goals and 68 points last season, both representing the second highest totals of his career. Rielly is a confident puck-moving defenseman who also has some defensive deficiencies. However, his offensive abilities tend to overshadow his inconsistent play without the puck. He had a 20-game stretch starting on December 1 during which he put up 26 points in 20 games and that kind of production will tend to gloss over missed defensive assignments. Rielly has had seasons with big offensive explosions – last season he had 68 points, in 2018-2019 he had 72 points – but those are aberrations. A forecast in the 55-point range would also incorporate some of the seasons in which Rielly’s point totals did not skyrocket.

Mark Giordano

Acquired from the Seattle Kraken before the trade deadline last season, Giordano has declined some as he is in his late thirties but remains a highly effective player. He finished last season with 35 points after tallying 12 points in 20 games with the Maple Leafs. He did not shoot the puck very much in Toronto, averaging 1.40 shots per game, compared to 2.24 shots per game in Seattle. The value to Giordano, especially at this stage of his career, is that he can still move the puck efficiently and play a reliable defensive game. He could match the 35 points he accumulated last season. While his on-ice shooting percentage (12.7%) was inflated at the end of the year with Toronto, Giordano’s on-ice shooting percentage (7.6%) in Seattle was on he very low end of his career range, so somewhere in the middle would still bring a productive complementary scoring defenseman.

T.J. Brodie

Even though he does not play as much of an offensive puck-moving role that he did during his peak years in Calgary, the 32-year-old defenseman adds some stability in Toronto’s defensive zone. While he can still move the puck, that is an aspect of the game that Brodie appears to have pushed into the rearview mirror. He still skates well and is a reliable defender, which should not be overlooked, but Brodie has surpassed 30 points six times in his career and finished with 28 points last season so it’s not out of the question that he could get to 30-plus points again with a few breaks.

Jake Muzzin

While Muzzin brings a physical presence that other Maple Leafs defensemen do not, he struggled during the 2021-2022 season. He and frequent partner Justin Holl were inconsistent together and it was the first time since 2016-2017 that Muzzin was outscored during 5-on-5 play as well as the first season of Muzzin’s career in which his team had better shot differentials when he was off the ice. As a 33-year-old who plays a physical game and has run into injury issues in recent seasons, it is possible that decline is setting in and Muzzin is simply not going to be the force that he had been previously. If that is the case, then maybe he becomes a reliable third-pair option, but he has played more than 20 minutes per game for eight straight seasons, so it would be premature to suddenly expect that Muzzin’s role is going to be reduced. The first option is probably to give him a bona fide chance to prove that he can perform better than he did last season. Health will determine Muzzin’s offensive upside but if he puts up 25 points while providing a strong physical defensive presence, that ought to be plenty valuable for the Maple Leafs.

GOALTENDING

Matt Murray

It was just two years ago that the Pittsburgh Penguins opted to finally part ways with goaltender Matt Murray, dealing him to the Ottawa Senators to free up their depth chart and give him an opportunity to rediscover his game on a more consistent level. In some ways, it seems like the move worked for Murray; he hasn’t backslid any farther in his development, and he had some stretches with the Senators last year where he appeared to have returned to the form he boasted when he made his league debut. But ultimately, the gamble the Senators made – hoping that a new environment would help Murray look more like the two-time Stanley Cup champion instead of the inconsistent backup he’d become – fell short; just two years into the four-year extension they signed him to back in 2020, they’ve moved him within division for what may end up being one final attempt to get his game back on track. He’ll try to put it all together under the tutelage of his long-time off-season coach Jon Elkin in Toronto, where the familiarity of a voice that’s familiar with his game and style will compete with the high-pressure environment presented by playing for the Leafs.

Murray’s quirks remain as dogged as ever, though. He still has a tendency to stay in motion until the puck arrives in the blue paint, which leaves him vulnerable to oversliding his posts and overshooting his positioning. It also makes it harder for him to effectively use his hands, as he lacks a grounded central position from which to make sharp glove saves and bat pucks away with his blocker; while his fluid movements keep him from looking too stiff or slow, he struggles with accuracy at a position that can’t afford mistakes made by inches. He should be granted a bit of relief, of course, playing behind Toronto after two years in Ottawa; while his own game was far from perfect, the porous defensive structure he backstopped left little room for him to smooth out the errors he needed to work away from. It was a tough scenario for a goaltender looking to bounce back; hopefully, the supercharged offense and step-up defensive roster he’ll move behind this upcoming season will help him level things out.

Projected starts: 40-45

Ilya Samsonov

It seems like it was only a few years ago that Washington was touting the Russian-born Samsonov as their next big thing. After falling short of expectations for just one too many seasons, though, the Capitals opted to start fresh entirely – and Toronto, seemingly in the market for reclamation projects under 30, were ready to welcome Samsonov into the fold to tandem with Matt Murray.

At his best, Ilya Samsonov has the speed and strength to get to even the least likely of shots – and he’s got the kind of aggression that leaves shooters unsure of just what he’s willing to do, challenging out to the top of his crease in a league where more and more netminders are opting for a more patient, conservative approach instead. Like Murray, though, Samsonov has a tendency to stay in motion past the point where he’d benefit from holding his edges and waiting for the puck to come to him; with the kind of wider, lower stance that goaltenders like Jonathan Quick and Sergei Bobrovsky favor and the kind of aggression that few outside of Alex Stalock embrace anymore, Samsonov leaves a lot of holes in his corners ripe for the picking. There will always be an element of ‘what if’ to Samsonov’s game; he was drafted when the expectation was that he would develop under the guidance of former Capitals goaltending guru Mitch Korn, who frequently had a heavy hand in selecting goaltenders for the team to acquire that would fit his development style well. Korn was off to the New York Islanders by the time Samsonov hit the NHL, though – and even though Scott Murray is a well-respected name as Korn’s replacement in DC, Samsonov never quite seemed to live up to the expectations his first-round selection status seemed to set. It’s likely he isn’t being brought into Toronto to be the heir apparent, as Matt Murray is an existing pupil of Jon Elkin already. But Elkin’s history of working magic with other energetic-but-uncontrolled names like Mike Smith in the past made it hard not to wonder just what he can do to help right the ship for Samsonov, as well.

Projected starts: 40-45

2022 NHL PLAYOFFS: TORONTO VS. TAMPA BAY – Leafs must go through defending Stanley Cup Champs to break long playoff drought

Scott Cullen — Sun, 01 May 2022 15:12:01 +0000

TAMPA, FL - APRIL 21: Toronto Maple Leafs Center John Tavares (91) is defended by Tampa Bay Lightning Defenceman Victor Hedman (77) as Tampa Bay Lightning Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) tries to look around them during a game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning on April 21, 2022, at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire)

TORONTO vs. TAMPA BAY

A look at the underlying numbers supports the notion that the Maple Leafs are a slightly better team than the Lightning, but it gets more complicated when it is put into context. That is, the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions are facing a team that last won a Cup in 1967 and has not won a round in the playoffs since 2003-2004.

There was no easy matchup to be had coming out of the Atlantic Division this year and one of the Leafs or Lightning is going to be very disappointed with a first-round loss.

Forwards

Toronto had six 20-goal scorers this season, led by Auston Matthews with 60. So much of the Maple Leafs attack runs through their big four forwards – Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander – but Alex Kerfoot, Ilya Mikheyev, and Pierre Engvall have been useful in supporting roles. Michael Bunting has been outstanding on the left wing with Matthews and Marner but is injured and may not be ready for the start of the playoffs. Ondrej Kase has been effective when healthy, too, and he is still trying to make his way back from a concussion.

The Lightning had to overhaul their third line after losing Blake Coleman, Yanni Gourde, and Barclay Goodrow last offseason, but they brought in Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul at the trade deadline and, along with Ross Colton and Corey Perry, the Lightning once again have some depth behind their stars. And their stars are proven on the biggest stage under the brightest lights. Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos are stars, while Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, and Anthony Cirelli are nice complementary pieces. Point was banged up late in the season and it would be a huge deal if he is not ready to go from the first puck drop in this series.

Defense

Toronto has been actively improving their blueline and the challenge now seems to be health and making sure they pick the right guys. Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, and Mark Giordano have all performed to expectations. Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl have both had question marks hanging over their play for most of the season. Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren have both been great while working on the third pair. That’s seven, plus Ilya Lyubushkin, who adds a physical edge and, suddenly, it’s not so easy for the Maple Leafs to use six when everyone is healthy. For all the grief that the Maple Leafs have taken for their defensive play over the years, they have excelled defensively this season, ranking sixth in score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts allowed and fourth in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes of 5v5 play. That’s the kind of defensive play that they will need to stymie Tampa Bay’s elite scoring forwards.

Victor Hedman is a perennial Norris Trophy contender, so the Lightning have that going for them. Ryan McDonagh, Mikhail Sergachev, and Erik Cernak have all proven to be big-time players in Tampa Bay’s recent Stanley Cup runs. Jan Rutta, Zach Bogosian, and Callan Foote provide the depth and the Lightning are only slightly behind Toronto when it comes in terms of shot suppression. Just as the Maple Leafs need their defense to respond to Tampa Bay’s top scoring forwards, the Lightning defense will have to neutralize Matthews, Marner, Tavares, and Nylander.

Goaltending

Early in this season, Maple Leafs goaltender Jack Campbell was playing at a ridiculously high level and there was nothing to worry about, at least until regression reared its ugly head and Campbell went through a long slump, followed by injury. He appeared to be back on track late in the season and the Maple Leafs will need him to play well just to escape the first round.

There is no team in the league that can have the same kind of confidence in their goaltender’s playoff performance as the Lightning do for Andrei Vasilevskiy. He did have an .856 save percentage in 2019 when the Lightning were shockingly swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round, but Vasilevskiy has a .924 save percentage in 81 career playoff games. He is a proven big-game goalie and that gives the Lightning an edge on virtually any team.

Special Teams

Toronto had the best power play in the league this season, scoring 10.23 goals per 60 minutes of 5v4 play. Having the league’s top goal scorer doesn’t hurt, as Auston Matthews has 16 power play goals, but John Tavares and William Nylander combined for 23 power play goals as well.

Tampa Bay’s power play has been above average, scoring 8.10 goals per 60 minutes during 5v4 play, but when it’s going, it is a terrifying experience, with Stamkos and Kucherov in opposing faceoff circles, ready to launch.

There is not much of a difference when it comes to penalty killing as the Maple Leafs and Lightning rank 11th and 12th, respectively, when it comes to fewest goals against during 4v5 play this season.

Conclusion

Statistically, it is easy enough to make a case for the Toronto Maple Leafs having a small edge over the Lightning based on the performance of the two clubs this season. However, that case gets more difficult when factoring in the relative histories of the two franchises. The Lightning have won back-to-back Stanley Cups and have the talent to legitimately vie for a third consecutive championship while the Maple Leafs are notorious for never getting out of the first round. Lightning in 7.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Early returns from the trade deadline, as Andrew Copp, Mathieu Joseph, Claude Giroux, and Frank Vatrano are among the players making a difference with their new teams

Scott Cullen — Fri, 08 Apr 2022 13:33:22 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Ryan Getzlaf is calling it a career plus early returns from the trade deadline, as Andrew Copp, Mathieu Joseph, Claude Giroux, and Frank Vatrano are among the players making a difference with their new teams.

#1 Anaheim Ducks center Ryan Getzlaf has announced that he will be retiring at the end of the season. The 36-year-old has been a massively productive player. On his way to 1,013 career points, Getzlaf had nine seasons with at least 60 points, peaking at 91 points in 2008-2009. Additionally, Getzlaf had a dozen seasons in which he recorded more than 90 hits, so he could contribute more than merely points.

NEWARK, NJ - MARCH 22: New York Rangers center Andrew Copp (18) shoots during the National Hockey League game between the New Jersey Devils and the New York Rangers on March 22, 2022 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

#2 When it comes to the players that moved at the trade deadline, the New York Rangers have to be very happy with their acquisition of Andrew Copp from the Winnipeg Jets. Copp has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 23 shots on goal in nine games and adds stability to a line with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome. Copp was going to be a sought-after free agent in the summer anyway, but this strong finish with the Rangers is only going to drive his price even higher.

#3 When the Tampa Bay Lightning made a trade to acquire Nick Paul from the Ottawa Senators, they sent right winger Mathieu Joseph to Canada’s capital. Normally a checking winger, Joseph has found himself skating on the Sens’ top line, alongside Brady Tkachuk and Josh Norris. In the past four games, Joseph has erupted for 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 13 shots on goal, suddenly becoming a scoring threat.

#4 For his part, Nick Paul has been a quality contributor for the Lightning, too. His ice time is way down, from 17:22 per game in Ottawa to 12:37 per game for Tampa Bay, and yet Paul has six points (2 G, 4 A), 18 shots on goal, and 23 hits in nine games. He is skating on a line with Anthony Cirelli and Alex Killorn, a unit that has more of an offensive role than what might have been expected when Paul was first acquired.

#5 The biggest acquisition, at least as a scoring forward, at the deadline was the Florida Panthers getting Claude Giroux from the Philadelphia Flyers. It is no surprise that Giroux has been able to produce points upon joining the league’s highest scoring team and he does have nine points (1 G, 8 A) in eight games with the Panthers, but it is notable that he has 25 shots on goal in just eight games but has managed just one goal, scoring on just 4.0% of his shots. He is now on the right wing with Jonathan Huberdeau and Sam Bennett, a pairing that has been highly productive since the Panthers added Bennett last season.

#6 Even though the Vegas Golden Knights attempted to unload Evgeny Dadonov at the trade deadline, once the deal was quashed, Dadonov returned to Vegas and has become a vital part of the Golden Knights’ playoff push. Dadonov has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in six games since “returning” to Vegas and has settled on the top line with Jack Eichel and Chandler Stephenson. Still available in many fantasy leagues, Stephenson has contributed nine points (2 G, 7 A) in six games since the deadline.

#7 Acquired by the New York Rangers from the Florida Panthers, where he could not get consistent playing time, Frank Vatrano has responded well to his bigger role. He is averaging 15:36 per game with the Blueshirts, after getting 12:12 of ice time per game with the Panthers, and Vatrano has eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 29 shots on goal in 12 games. Vatrano has always been able to get shots but has not always received the opportunity to make the most of that skill. Since 2018-2019, Vatrano is averaging 10.41 shots on goal per 60 minutes of 5v5 play, which ranks 24^th in the league among players to have skated at least 1000 5v5 minutes, just ahead of Jack Eichel and behind Kirill Kaprizov and Justin Williams.

#8 Getting a chance to play on a playoff team has helped defenseman Nick Leddy, who has five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games since joining the St. Louis Blues. He has been getting a chance to quarterback the first power play unit so there is a decent chance of Leddy providing enough offense to matter for fantasy managers down the stretch.

#9 Rickard Rakell has been a solid addition to the Pittsburgh Penguins, often skating on Evgeni Malkin’s wing, but there has not been a big spike in his production compared to the start of the season in Anaheim. Rakell has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 20 shots on goal in nine games but after playing 18:21 per game for the Ducks, he has averaged 16:16 per game for the Penguins.

#10 Part of the package going to Philadelphia in the Claude Giroux deal, Owen Tippett is getting a better opportunity to play with the Flyers, but the results have not hit yet. In 10 games with Philadelphia, Tippett has three points (2 G, 1 A), but he does have 24 shots on goal. It is probably too soon to be optimistic about Tippett’s chances to be productive this season but his finish to the 2021-2022 season should give a decent indication about whether Tippett can fulfill his potential as a scoring winger.

#11 Veteran defenseman Michael Del Zotto was banished to the American Hockey League, but he went to Belleville and put up 27 points (10 G, 17 A) in 26 games. After the trade deadline, with the Senators needing more bodies on the NHL blueline, Del Zotto was recalled and he has four assists and 14 shots on goal in eight games, playing more than 18 minutes per game for Ottawa.

#12 The Florida Panthers paid a steep price to land defenseman Ben Chiarot from the Montreal Canadiens, but Chiarot has contributed four points (1 G, 3 A) and 25 shots on goal in eight games since joining the Panthers. The points are nice, but the shot rate stands out, as Chiarot was averaging 1.78 shots on goal per game with Montreal and that is up to 3.13 per game in Florida, even though his ice time has dropped by more than two minutes per game. Such is the value of joining the league’s highest-octane attack.

#13 Although he was hurt in Boston’s last game, defenseman Hampus Lindholm has had a positive impact since joining the Bruins. He has four assists, 11 hits, 12 blocked shots, and 16 shots on goal since arriving in Boston and steadying the top pairing alongside Charlie McAvoy. Lindholm does not typically put up big offensive numbers, which tends to limit his fantasy appeal, but if he could continue to chip in offensively while averaging more than 1.5 hits and blocked shots per game, as well as two-plus shots per game, then Lindholm would still hold fantasy appeal.

#14 While three points (1 G, 2 A) in eight games for the Toronto Maple Leafs is relatively consistent with his Seattle Kraken production, defenseman Mark Giordano has managed just seven shots on goal in those eight games, which is a notable decrease, and he is playing 19:15 per game for the Maple Leafs. 2008-2009 was the last season in which Giordano averaged fewer than 20 minutes of ice time per game.

#15 Max Domi was a scoring forward of dubious fantasy value with Columbus this season, scoring 32 points (9 G, 23 A) in 55 games, but that is better than what he has been able to provide in Carolina, managing zero goals and three assists with seven shots on goal in eight games for the Hurricanes. He wasn’t playing a lot for Columbus, averaging 13:25 of ice time per game, but he is down almost two minutes per game from that mark in Carolina.

#16 The points have not been there yet for defenseman Jake Walman, who has two assists in nine games since he was acquired by the Detroit Red Wings as part of the Nick Leddy deal. What is interesting about Walman is that, after playing less than 12 minutes per game for the Blues this season, he is getting nearly 18 minutes of ice time per game for Detroit and has put 22 shots on goal in nine games with the Red Wings.

#17 One of the priciest acquisitions prior to the trade deadline, left winger Brandon Hagel had been riding a high shooting percentage on his way to scoring 21 goals in 55 games for the Blackhawks before he was added by the Tampa Bay Lightning. The high shooting percentage remains, as Hagel has two goals on 10 shots for the Lightning, but those are his only points in Tampa Bay and his ice time has gone from 17:28 per game in Chicago to 12:24 per game in Tampa Bay.

#18 One of the benefits of being a rebuilding team like the Montreal Canadiens is that the team can offer a more substantial role to a prospect that might have the same opportunity with their previous club. Defenseman Justin Barron got into a couple of games with the Colorado Avalanche earlier in the season, averaging 12:35 of ice time per game. In five games since joining the Canadiens, Barron is playing more than 19 minutes per game, and he has two points (1 G, 1 A) along with 13 shots on goal. Montreal’s defense is going to be changing and the 2020 first-round pick is likely to be a big part of it.

#19 Going the other way in that trade, winger Artturi Lehkonen only has one goal in four games for the Avalanche but there are encouraging signs, too. For one thing, Lehkonen has seen his ice time go up by nearly two minutes per game, which is not typical for a player going from a bottom feeder to a Stanley Cup contender, and Lehkonen does have 13 shots on goal in those four games. He may not be a huge scorer but there is a good chance that Lehkonen will contribute for the Avs for the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs.

#20 The Seattle Kraken don’t score a lot so there is limited fantasy upside to most of their players, but it is notable that Ryan Donato has been playing a first line role for them. Since the deadline, Donato has six points (1 G, 5 A) in eight games and is getting an extra minute per game of ice time.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Fallout from the NHL trade deadline, not just from the players that moved, like Claude Giroux, Marc-Andre Fleury, Mark Giordano, and Max Domi, but also those that remain with potentially new opportunities

Scott Cullen — Fri, 25 Mar 2022 13:30:46 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, fallout from the NHL trade deadline, not just from the players that moved, like Claude Giroux, Marc-Andre Fleury, Mark Giordano, and Max Domi, but also those that remain with potentially new opportunities for the rest of the season.

MONTREAL, QC - MARCH 24: Florida Panthers right wing Claude Giroux (28) plays the puck during the Florida Panthers versus the Montreal Canadiens game on March 24, 2022 at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The big ticket forward to move prior to the deadline was Claude Giroux, who has been a premier scorer in Philadelphia for a long time, surpassing 1,000 games with the Flyers just last week. Giroux is going to score. Since 2010-2011, there are three players with more points than Giroux’s 828 points (in 875 games): Patrick Kane, Sidney Crosby, and Alex Ovechkin. He has moved to the right wing on Philadelphia’s top line, skating with Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe, a good opportunity to keep the points flowing. Owen Tippett went to Philadelphia in this deal, and it should give him a better opportunity to play regularly as he auditions this season for a spot with next year’s team. Tippett had 33 points (14 G, 19 A) in 94 games for Florida, averaging less than 12 minutes of ice time per game. In three games with Philadephia, Tippett has averaged 17 minutes per game.

#2 With Giroux gone to Florida and Sean Couturier out for the season with a back injury, Kevin Hayes is the No. 1 center in Philadelphia. He has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 15 shots on goal in the past six games and has played more than 20 minutes in three of his past four games.

#3 The Toronto Maple Leafs turned to Seattle for veteran defenseman Mark Giordano and right winger Colin Blackwell. Giordano had 23 points in 55 games for the Kraken, but that included a team-leading eight power play assists. Vince Dunn, who leads Seattle defensemen with 27 points (7 G, 20 A), is the top candidate for more power play time on the point in Seattle. In Toronto, Giordano started playing with Timothy Liljegren but there is always the potential of Giordano getting reunited with T.J. Brodie, with whom he was frequently partnered when both were with the Calgary Flames. As for Blackwell, he was not playing a lot in Seattle and started on the fourth line in Toronto, but he is a depth forward with some upside. He ranked sixth among Seattle forwards with 1.70 points per 60 minutes of 5v5 play this season and had shown in spurts with the Rangers last season that he can contribute offensively.

#4 There was some doubt about whether goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury would even want to move but he gave the green light for his trade from Chicago to Minnesota and that does make Fleury more appealing than he was with a Blackhawks team that was not winning a whole lot. In Minnesota, Fleury gets to play behind a stronger team and the wins should come more easily. Fleury’s arrival in Minnesota does put a limit on the appeal of Cam Talbot, who had been the Wild starter in net but then he effectively slumped his way out of the job. Talbot will likely play more than a run-of-the-mill backup but also probably less than a standard starting goaltender, which could sewer his fantasy value. With Fleury leaving the Windy City, Kevin Lankinen should get most of the starts for Chicago the rest of the way but that’s not going to be a big help to the Blackhawks. Lankinen had a .931 save percentage in his first dozen games for Chicago last season and in 43 games since then, his save percentage is .896.

#6 With the Wild shuffling goaltenders, that left Kaapo Kahkonen as the odd man out and he was dealt to San Jose for defenseman Jacob Middleton. Kahkonen had a .907 save percentage in 54 games for the Wild across the past three seasons, but the 25-year-old might have a chance to earn a long-term role in San Jose. Veteran James Reimer is still San Jose’s starter but with Adin Hill injured, Kahkonen can establish himself and maybe get a leg up on a competition for the starting job next season, especially if Reimer gets moved.

#7 The Carolina Hurricanes brought in Max Domi from Columbus and while the idea is that he might be able to offer some secondary scoring, he started his time with the Hurricanes skating alongside Derek Stepan and Jesperi Kotkaniemi on Carolina’s fourth line. Not ideal for his fantasy value. With Domi gone, there might be more of an opportunity for wingers Yegor Chinakov and Emil Bemstrom, as well as Alexandre Texier when he returns from a finger injury.

#8 Having lost their entire third line in the offseason, the Tampa Bay Lightning were not afraid to pay a big price at the deadline to shore up those holes in the lineup. Tampa Bay made a trade with Chicago for Brandon Hagel and with Ottawa for Nick Paul. Although Paul scored in his Lightning debut and has a career-high 12 goals this season, he is not likely to have much fantasy appeal. Hagel is more interesting. The 23-year-old has erupted for 21 goals in 57 games in his second NHL season, but that goal total should come with a massive grain of salt. Hagel has scored on 22.1% of his shots this season and that is unlikely to last for even the greatest snipers and, with all due respect, Hagel is not one of the all-time greatest snipers.

#9 The wingers going to Chicago in the Hagel trade, Taylor Raddysh and Boris Katchouk, will get a chance to prove that they are NHLers. Raddysh is a 24-year-old power forward who had 12 points (5 G, 7 A) in 53 games for the Lightning but has scored four points (2 G, 2 A) in his first three games with the Blackhawks. Katchouk was a part-time player for Tampa Bay, contributing six points (3 G, 3 A) in 38 games. He is still battling for a regular spot in the lineup, but that opportunity is better for him in Chicago than it was in Tampa Bay.

#10 A proven shot generator whose shooting percentage finally started to come around this season, Rickard Rakell is a major addition to the Pittsburgh Penguins lineup. Since 2017-2018, Rakell has averaged 2.83 shots on goal per game, which ranks 44^th in the league. In the past three seasons, though, Rakell had trouble converting, scoring on just 8.0% of his shots, before percentages turned back in his favor this season and he had 16 goals in 51 games for the Ducks, scoring on 11.8% of his shots. The expectation is that he will ultimately have a chance to skate alongside Evgeni Malkin on the Penguins’ second line, but in his first couple of games with the Penguins, Rakell has played more with Jeff Carter and Kasperi Kapanen, also seeing some time on Sidney Crosby’s wing. In a depleted Ducks lineup, after Rakell’s departure, Derek Grant and Dominik Simon were skating on Trevor Zegras’ wings while Zach Aston-Reese and Gerry Mayhew were on the flanks of Adam Henrique. None of those wingers are particularly appealing for fantasy purposes, even with suddenly bigger roles.

#11 The Ducks were busy, also dealing defenseman Hampus Lindholm to the Boston Bruins. Lindholm had 22 points (5 G, 17 A) in 61 games for the Ducks, and his career high was 34 points in the 2014-2015 season, he still played a major role on the Anaheim blueline and those minutes will have to get absorbed, so Simon Benoit and Brendan Guhle are candidates for more playing time. In Boston, Lindholm has joined Charlie McAvoy on the Bruins’ top pair.

#12 The Washington Capitals dipped into their past, acquiring Marcus Johansson from the Seattle Kraken. Johansson started his career in Washington, from 2010-2011 through 2016-2017 but he has played for five more teams since. Johansson had 23 points (6 G, 17 A) in 51 games for Seattle this season but with T.J. Oshie out of the Washington lineup, Johansson landed on the right wing with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznestov. That might not last but, in the short term, it’s a pretty good place to be.

#13 With Johansson one of several departures from Seattle, there will be chances for players to prove their value as NHLers. Daniel Sprong was part of the deal going to Seattle and he has flashed talent, on his way to 41 goals in 187 career games. He scored in his first game for Seattle, recording five shots on goal in just 11:24 of ice time. Karson Kuhlman, Kole Lind, and Morgan Geekie are other Seattle forwards that should see an uptick in ice time down the stretch.

#14 Enjoying a strong season in Montreal, Artturi Lehkonen was an attractive trade candidate, and the Colorado Avalanche were willing to pay for his services, expecting Lehkonen to solidify their middle six forwards. With 29 points (13 G, 16 A) in 58 games for the Canadiens, Lehkonen is just two points off of his career high, set in 2018-2019. With Lehkonen departing there is more room for a veteran forward like Paul Byron to fit into the Montreal lineup but that does not offer much fantasy appeal.

#15 Montreal did secure the services of defenseman Justin Barron from the Avalanche in the Lehkonen trade. A first-round pick in 2020, Barron appeared in two games for the Avs earlier in the season and had 20 points (5 G, 15 A) in 43 AHL games. Barron will have a chance to become a big part of the Montreal blueline.

#16 One of the most sought-after pending free agent forwards was acquired by the New York Rangers, as they picked up Andrew Copp from the Winnipeg Jets. Copp’s offensive game started to break through last season when he put up a career-high 39 points in 55 games, but he had 35 points (13 G, 22 A) in 56 games for the Jets before the trade and then he had a couple of assists in his Rangers debut. Copp started his Rangers career on a line with Filip Chytil and Dryden Hunt but finished that first game on right wing with Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad. The Rangers also acquired energy winger Tyler Motte from Vancouver and while Motte does not score enough to generate a bunch of fantasy interest, but he does have a very specific fantasy value tied to his hit totals, averaging 2.80 hits per game across the past four seasons.

#17 Even though the Jets decided to trade Copp, they did not give up on their playoff push, however unlikely it might be. The Jets brought back right winger Mason Appleton who was claimed by Seattle in the expansion draft, and the Jets also acquired Zach Sanford from the Ottawa Senators. Neither of these players is as valuable as Copp, but the two wingers are established NHL talent that can play in Winnipeg’s top nine.

#18 Veteran forward Derick Brassard was a low-key addition by the Edmonton Oilers from the Philadelphia Flyers. He had a modest 16 points (6 G, 10 A) in 31 games for the Flyers but might have a little more offensive upside in Edmonton as he started his Oilers career on a line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi.

#19 The St. Louis Blues were looking to shore up their blueline and landed veteran puck mover Nick Leddy from Detroit, sending Oskar Sundqvist and Jake Walman to the Red Wings. Leddy can quarterback a power play, if necessary, and it might be necessary for the Blues as Torey Krug is injured. If Krug is out long-term, that might give Leddy an opening into a bigger role for the Blues. Sundqvist and Walman may not be stars but they are entirely capable of filling regular roles for the Red Wings.

#20 One more Detroit deal. The Red Wings sent versatile forward Vladislav Namestnikov to Dallas. Namestnikov is still going to have to battle for ice time with the Stars, but his departure does help open up ice time for younger options in the Detroit lineup. Joseph Veleno, Michael Rasmussen, and the recently promoted Taro Hirose are some candidates for bigger roles in Detroit.

NUMBERS AT WORK: Weekly Highlights and Observations – 11/15/2021 – Team of the Week: Vegas – What’s Wrong With: Seattle – Microstats 3 Stars

Corey Sznajder — Tue, 16 Nov 2021 22:12:53 +0000

Team of the Week: Vegas Golden Knights

There were a lot of worthy teams to choose from this week, but we’re going to focus on the resurging Vegas Golden Knights, who have salvaged a terrible start in winning eight of their last 10 games. The message through the first two months was how they had to weather the storm while their top forwards returned from injury. Everyone not named Jonathan Marchessault or Reilly Smith has been on the shelf and they have another one waiting with the recent trade for superstar center Jack Eichel), so they have to do what they can to stay above water while the cavalry gets healthy.

It looked like a tough sell at the beginning of the month. They couldn’t score, injuries resorted their team to more of a pop-gun offense and their team defense looked in shambles. Since November, they’ve righted the ship and this past week was a sign that they might be turning the corner, winning all three of their games. The most impressive of which being their 3-2 victory over a good Minnesota team where they got a couple of goals from deep in their organizational depth chart in the form of Paul Cotter and Jonas Røndbjerg.

What I love about these clips is that it’s two low-profile rookies scoring goals that you would see in almost any Vegas game the past few years. Search Alex Tuch highlights, and they would look just like this. The forward finds an opening, waits for a pass and then lets his skill do the work in a one-on-one matchup. Vegas has gotten a lot of these looks this year, but they’ve had a devil of a time converting on them. Just ask Keegan Kolesar, who is still waiting for his first goal of the year despite generating 27 scoring chances in 15 games. Vegas has been begging for anyone in their bottom-six to see the scoresheet and they’re finally started to get that this past week with these two call-ups making the most of their chances. Cotter was sent back to the AHL after this game to make room for the returning Mark Stone, but he and Røndbjerg made very good first impressions that could go a long way if Vegas’ other depth forwards continue to struggle.

While the goals were nice, this does illustrate one of the problems Vegas has had this year, which is the lack of sustained possessions and playing more of a pop-gun offense compared to year’s past. With the exception of Smith and Marchessault, Vegas forwards have had to do most of their damage off the rush and it’s put more stress on their defense. Not just in terms of trading chances, but with how aggressive they play in the offensive zone. The Knight’s defense was one of the best in the league at generating chances and acting as the fourth forward. They had more shots generated off cross-seam passes and off plays from behind the goal line than any other team last year. The strategy hasn’t changed this year, but the dissipating forward talent has taken its toll on their defense a bit. Jared Spurgeon’s goal from Thursday’s game is a good example of that.

Notice how Nic Hague (14 on Vegas) pinches along the left wall after the dump-in. It’s a routine play for Vegas, but the Wild make a quick exit. There’s a forward back to cover, but his man doesn’t score the goal. Instead, it’s a cutting Jared Spurgeon, who wins the race against Hague (who had his momentum carrying him the other way when he missed the puck on his pinch) to score the goal. If you look at a lot of the goals Vegas has given up this year, a lot of it is from the defense being over aggressive while the puck is in front of them and it’s how they have to play while their top forwards are on the mend. Sometimes it works, as we’ve seen with Shea Theodore having four points in his last three games but even then, most of his goals have come off faceoff plays and d-to-d passes rather than off the rush, which is what Vegas has struggled at. Theodore and Pietrangelo have been under scrutiny for their defensive play this year and while that is starting to correct itself, it’s hard to ignore the trickledown effect from the forward injuries.

Vegas’ three most relied on defenders are in the “overworked” quadrant of this chart, which means they’re getting targeted by opposing forwards a lot and they’re giving up a high number of chances when other teams enter the zone against them. If you look at their game-by-game stats from an Expected Goals perspective, you’ll see that it’s a lot of very good games mixed with some awful games. So, there is a major feast-or-famine element to their defense now and the team’s results have followed suit. Is this a result of their defense playing more aggressive in the offensive zone and getting burned when their risks don’t pay off? Vegas runs their offense through their defense corps more than most teams and if the forwards aren’t as in-sync as they were last year, guys like Pietrangelo and Theodore are going to get stretched more. The puck either has to stay higher in the zone or the defense has to do more to retrieve pucks if the forwards can’t create any sustained pressure. Vegas’ top-four is good enough to handle this (although getting Martinez back for more than one game would be nice), but there is a higher risk of turnovers leading to rush chances the other way with one defenseman being left on an island. Is this something that can be corrected once the team gets healthy? Possibly, but you’re going to see some extreme results on both sides of the coin from the Knights’ top players until then.

The good news for the Knights is that the reinforcements are on their way. Mark Stone returned this Saturday, Alec Martinez returned before taking a skate to the face early in the Minnesota game and they have a major addition coming in a few months with Jack Eichel. That and they’ve managed to weather the storm with this recent 10-game stretch and will have to tread water until everyone is healthy. Vegas is still a good team who likely be in a playoff spot come May, but some of these cracks in the armor show that they aren’t the runaway favorites in the division anymore.

Top Microstat Performances:

WINNIPEG, MB – April 17: Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) skates in on Winnipeg Jets defenseman Derek Forbort (24) during the regular season game between the Winnipeg Jets and the Edmonton Oilers on April 17, 2021 at the Bell MTS Place in Winnipeg MB. (Photo by Terrence Lee/Icon Sportswire)

Connor McDavid vs. Bruins

McDavid is in a class of his own when it comes to how ridiculous he is in transition, so I’m going to make an effort not to feature him every week. It’s tough to do that when he has a game like he did against Boston last Thursday. McDavid carried the puck in on all nine of his zone entries, three of which led to scoring chances (which is really tough to do in one game). He also contributed to nine shots at even strength, producing three scoring chances and setting up two.

Rewatching the footage was interesting because it was more like a chess match than McDavid just dominating from the onset. He could gain the line against Boston’s defense but couldn’t get past the first layer for most of the first period. Then in the second he started to find openings, flying the zone for a breakaway on one opportunity and retrieving the puck in the corner to setup Zach Hyman for a goal late in the second period. He also led a couple of give-and-gos. He finished the game with only one point, but it could have easily been another three point night for him with some better luck/finishing.

Roman Josi vs. Blues

Nashville is low-key one of the hottest teams in the league, currently riding a three game win streak while boasting some very strong underlying numbers at five-on-five. It’s been a by-committee effort from them. Matt Duchene found his scoring touch again, Mikael Granlund is producing, Luke Kunin is off to a great start, but it all comes back to their captain Roman Josi. The star defenseman has been the gold standard for puck-rushing defensemen in recent seasons and we saw a little of that in their overtime win over St. Louis in Thursday night.

Josi had eight zone entries, seven of which were with control of the puck. It’s a high number for a defenseman, but a typical game for Josi. However, the way he did this was a little different than in years past. Instead of going end-to-end, he wasn’t the first guy back to retrieve the puck on a lot of these plays, deferring to his partner Dante Fabbro. Why this is important is that it gives him more options when carrying the puck through neutral ice. He’s already by the first forechecker, so there’s going to be more open ice and more support options with him. It gives Nashville a different layer to their offense and makes their rush chances a little more dangerous instead of having Josi creating something out of nothing. Josi might get all the stats, but all of Nashville’s roster deserves some recognition for how they’ve played the past 10 games.

Troy Terry

It’s amazing what starting the season with a couple of goals can do for your confidence. Anaheim’s Tory Terry has been on fire to start the year with 20 points in 15 games and Sunday night’s game against Vancouver was just another night at the office for him. Always very skilled and active with his stick, the roadblock for Terry was turning highlight reel plays into consistent results. So far, he’s been able to do that and then some.

He had the puck on a string all night, producing three scoring chances and setting up 15 shots on goal (including power plays). Everything just looked so easy for him, as he was doing a little of everything. Quarterbacking Anaheim’s power play from the right wall, helping them lead breakouts (6 exits with possession), leading rushes (6 zone entries) and being a good support player in the offensive zone when he wasn’t the one spearheading the rush. Looking like a nice depth piece who could maybe hit 40 points in a good season, Terry has played like Anaheim’s version of Mark Stone to start the year. Might be an extreme comparison, but he really has been that good and it will be interesting to see where he levels out at once the points stop coming so easily. He probably won’t shoot at 30% forever, but he’s still an incredibly fun player to watch. Those who can’t stay up for Anaheim games are in for a treat as the Ducks make their way through the East Coast this coming week.

What’s Wrong With…?

VANCOUVER, BC - OCTOBER 05: Seattle Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer (31) tracks the play during their preseason NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks on October 5, 2021 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

Seattle Kraken

Unlike Vegas, the Kraken’s start has resembled more of what people expect from an expansion team, winning only four of their first 15 games and sitting at the bottom of the Pacific Division. They’re a weird team to breakdown because on one hand, it’s an expansion team that didn’t have much offensive firepower heading into the year. On the other hand, they invested heavily in team defense and goaltending both in the expansion draft and free agency. They currently have the worst team save percentage in the league (both at 5v5 and in all situations) with their starter Philipp Grubauer posting an ugly .880 mark over 12 games.

I tend to defer to goalie experts since it’s not my area of expertise, but it’s hard to believe that Grubauer would become a replacement level goalie one year removed from being a Vezina finalist. Even when you factor in how his current situation is a total 180 from where he was in Colorado, where he maybe saw 10 scoring chances a night at most, it was tough to see him playing this poorly. Some of the goals in the Anaheim game were tough to watch, particularly the two point shot goals he let in.

These are the types of goals that will probably be stopped more frequently as the year goes on. The Kraken’s five-on-five offense has started to come around, sitting in the middle of the pack in terms of goal-scoring (a hot streak from Jordan Eberle is mostly to thank for that), so the goaltending will likely trend towards the league average. Grubauer should settle in and learn his defense’s tendencies more, which should lead to fewer leaky goals.

Their power play, on the other hand, will be a tougher riddle to solve. Only the depleted Pittsburgh Penguins have scored fewer power play goals per 60 minutes this year and even that is slightly boosted from the late tally they scored against Minnesota. The lack of a go-to guy hurts the most here, as they’ve resorted to Mark Giordano point shots as their default play with Morgan Geekie firing one-timers from the right circle at the secondary option. Their best option, Jordan Eberle, has only one power play goal all season because he’s stuck waiting for a pass in the slot or a rebound in front of the net. Getting Jared McCann’s shot back in the lineup helps, but the Kraken have had a tough time getting the puck on the stick of their best player’s when playing with the man advantage.

They’ve gone to some interesting tactics to fix this, one of which included putting the towering defenseman Jamie Oleksiak in the netfront role, but nothing has really worked. They can only score if they get a passing lane open below the faceoff circles, which are pretty easy to eliminate if you’re a penalty killer. They have some players who are patient and creative enough to get the pass through the box from the halfwall (hi Marcus Johansson) to complement some of their more tenacious netfront players like Yanni Gourde, so it will be interesting to see if they can get something to work here as the season progresses.

NHL EXPANSION DRAFT: Seattle Roster by the Numbers

Alison Lukan and Shayna Goldman — Tue, 20 Jul 2021 13:25:18 +0000

In just under 48 hours, the Seattle Kraken will have the very first roster of players in franchise history courtesy of Wednesday’s Expansion Draft. 30 other teams (lucky Vegas is exempt) have labored over protection lists, and now it’s up to Seattle to pour through the available players and select one individual from each NHL club to join its organization. There are rules of course: the final roster must include 30 players – one from each team – and include a minimum of 17 forwards, nine defensemen, and three goaltenders with a minimum total cap hit of $48.9 million.

It’s a fun but daunting task to think about all the options and resulting on-ice product, so we decided to join the fray and come up with our own projection for the Kraken team with a data-driven approach.

For player valuation, we used Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR) measure to quantify what each player contributes on ice. We also considered a player's “expected” GAR (xGAR) to consider how a player performed compared to what was expected of them. We then also looked at this performance relative to cost (using annualized cap hit values from CapFriendly.com) to fill out our roster within the Draft guidelines.

With tremendous thanks to both of those online resources, here is our take on what the inaugural Kraken Draft class might look like.

THE ROSTER

THE DOLLARS AND SENSE

NOTES AND THOUGHTS:

The roster of signed players had a cumulative cap hit of about $58 million. On the viz above, to get a gauge of what some of those free agents could sign for, we used Evolving-Hockey’s contract projections. We’ll be honest, some teams had fewer attractive options than others and some of our picks (Fischer, Jarnkrok, Johnsson, Tierney) we view as bait for future trades or flips – some of which will help lower that 2021-22 cap that is over the limit with the featured projections. Also, while acknowledging there could be no shortage of side deals that influence these selections, we picked players with the expectation that they were who Seattle wanted without any constraints.

Here’s some of the players who stood out to us:

Carolina Hurricanes Defenceman Dougie Hamilton (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

DEFENSE:

Dougie Hamilton (D | Carolina Hurricanes)

We really like our defense overall, and Hamilton is arguably the cornerstone of that. He was a legitimate Norris candidate this past season, as he continues to have driven play while maintaining a positive defense impact. Any blue line would be lucky to have the skill that the right-handed back brings and according to Evolving-Hockey’s projection, that comes at a $8.5 million cap hit.

Mark Giordano (D | Calgary Flames)

Here’s our nod to the old school traditions of hockey. Giordano is in the older range of players we selected, and while that can raise some concern from a longevity perspective, he’s coming off a season where he had a team-high GAR of 12.7, which was also fifth best among all NHL defensemen. Add in a solid reputation as a leader - something a brand new team will need - and Giordano is a natural fit on and off the ice.

Shayne Gostisbehere (D | Philadelphia Flyers)

Just because the rest of the league passed on acquiring Gostisbehere when the Flyers put him on waivers doesn’t mean Seattle will. The leftie’s on ice impacts have slipped over the last two seasons, but a change of scenery should help him bounce back – so could time with Dave Hakstol, who was his bench boss for three and a half seasons earlier in his career.

Vince Dunn (D | St. Louis Blues)

Like Gostisbehere, there have been reports that the defender could be on the move. He isn’t really used in high leverage situations in St. Louis but has solid results in the minutes he’s played thus far in his career. The 24-year-old has the potential to help the Kraken grow on defense for years to come and gives some flexibility as he plays both the left and right side.

FORWARDS:

Josh Bailey (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

Josh Bailey (LW/RW | New York Islanders)

Unlike Gostisbehere and Dunn, Bailey’s availability is more of a surprise. The Islanders’ forward scores at the rate of a top-sixer and can provide two-way play on either wing. His versatility adds value as the veteran could shift around the lineup to wherever he’s most needed. If not Bailey, Seattle does have options from this squad; Jordan Eberle is also available and is the better option offensively if management feels they need more scoring up front.

Yanni Gourde (C/LW/RW | Tampa Bay Lightning)

While teams are throwing salary and term at Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow, the Kraken have the option of getting one of the most valuable pieces of that line for free. While he primarily played on the third line in Tampa Bay these last two seasons, Gourde could slot into most teams’ top-six, and can be deployed in all situations. Skating at either wing or center, the versatile forward creates offense both off the rush and forecheck, driving play with his passing and shooting. He gets to work every shift, pressuring for turnovers, and is defensively responsible despite his 5-foot-9 frame.

Philip Danault (C | Montreal Canadiens)

Danault may not be as high scoring as other top-six centers around the league, but he’s one of the best defensive centers right now which is why there’s going to be interest in him once free agency begins. Seattle gets to take a crack at him early, and Evolving-Hockey projects a $6.2 million cap hit. On a team of players put together just months before puck drop, Danault’s defensive play would be a source of stability. And with the right offensively inclined linemate, he could bolster his play on the other end of the ice too.

Andreas Athanasiou (C/LW/RW | LA Kings)

The knock on Athanasiou has always been that while he’s an offensive dynamo, his defensive play is non-existent. That’s still true, but paired with proper linemates, a team may be able to protect and utilize him in the proper way. He’s coming off a nice rebound last year and could be productive in the Pacific Northwest.

GOALTENDERS:

We approached our goaltending choices as a solution in its entirety more than thinking of each player one at a time. We wanted an established and seasoned veteran who understands and has experience with a true starter’s role. Enter Braden Holtby. He is still strong in net, and while costly, doesn’t have a Carey Price-esque contract. Holtby can provide stability in net while also being a mentor to Chris Dreidger. The young Panther is widely expected to join Seattle and his performance this past season gives a glimpse into what could be an exciting staple in net long term for the Kraken. He can play well in net as a backup while likely carrying a larger load than a traditional backup might, while preparing to become the eventual starter. Our third selection, Malcolm Subban, brings in a very solid security blanket in the number three spot. Subban has NHL experience at an affordable price.

Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, and CapFriendly