steve mason – McKeen's Hockey

NHL Playoff Preview: Washington Capitals (1) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (WC2)

Daniel Friedman and Robert Howard — Thu, 14 Apr 2016 19:11:37 +0000

Summary: Not that any team in the East can match Washington's offensive firepower, but the Flyers pack quite a wallop themselves when their top two lines are clicking.

Unfortunately, they're facing a Capitals squad that is as good defensively and in net as it is on the attack. We think the Caps are better than Philly in every aspect of the game, and we don't anticipate this series will be a long one.

Washington will take its first step towards a Stanley Cup run that is well overdue.

PREDICTION: Capitals in 5

Critical Factors: The Flyers have nothing to prove, or lose, with the Capitals as the overall favourites. Rookie coach Hakstol has earned some buy-in from his squad, and finished the season with a flourish (15-5-3). Trotz will bring a disciplined team, but first round jitters, and everything to prove, could bring some early surprises for the Caps - who have lost five of its last seven games. Braden Holtby delivered a Vezina-worthy season and if he is in form from the outset, Philly’s odds are slim. The only chance they will have is if Steve Mason has the Caps number and continues his strong play from the second half - outperforming Holtby statistically after the all-star break (Holtby – 18-4-4, 2.40 GAA, 0.911 SV%, Mason – 13-7-4, 2.28 GAA, 0.921 SV%) ..Coach Trotz will ensure they are poised, and ready – and past playoff demons are at rest. Over seven games, Philly’s defense will not be able to manage the four strong lines of the Caps for long.

Potential Breakout Players: Two strong lines for Washington will deliver plenty of scoring this playoff. The first unit of Ovechkin, Backstrom and Oshie will draw attention allowing team scoring leader, Evgeny Kuznetsov to perform some magic. Be aware he is a cold as ice, having not scored a goal since March 1^st (20 games) and has only scored four times in the last 11 games (11-0-4-4). Regardless, he could be a handful if they key on checking the first line and his linemates, Andre Burakovsky and Justin Williams will be the benefactors. Williams with his well-established playoff reputation (Mr. Game 7) for big goals and performances could be a hidden weapon. Wayne Simmonds brings his exceptional drive, and could be a playoff standout after another good season with 32 goals and 60 points. He fired 20 goals in his final 37 games (a 44-goal pro-rated pace) (37-20-15-35) and is on a roll heading into the playoffs. Breakout defenseman Shayne Ghostibehere will be under pressure to deliver a strong performance, and that may be asking a lot. Brayden Schenn’s enjoyed a breakout season, providing excellent production from January 1^st on (46-19-25-44). He, Simmonds and Giroux played together effectively as the first line for the last twenty games.

Series Matchup: Capitals winning 2-0-2 with Flyers winning their last game in a shootout. Three of the games were decided by one goal.

Key Stats

CF% 5v5 (war-on-ice.com): WSH 51.0% (14^th) PHI 50.6% (16^th)

PDO (war-on-ice.com): WSH 101.2 (3^rd) PHI 100.4 (11^th)

Power Play (NHL.com): WSH 21.9% (5^th) PHI 18.9% (11^th)

Penalty Kill (NHL.com): WSH 85.2% (2^nd) PHI 80.5% (20^th)

Goals For per-game (NHL.com): WSH 3.02 (2^nd) PHI 2.57 (22^nd)

Goals Against per-game (NHL.com): WSH 2.33 (2^nd) PHI 2.56 (12^th)

Notes: Washington’s dominance is clear in the stats - the second best offense and defense in the league simply overmatches the Flyers. Washington does not rank in the top 5 in possession, and Stanley Cup champs over the past decade have primarily been leaders in this area.

Fantasy Hockey: Ranking Goalies by Tier

Peter Harling — Wed, 23 Sep 2015 16:35:35 +0000

For most, trying to predict fantasy goalies is a little like trying to predict where lightning is going to strike. If you are like me, you need all the help you can get. One thing you can do to help better prepare for your fantasy draft is to rank goalies by tiers. Depending on your leagues size, format, and scoring mechanism you can have all different kinds of values associated to players. With goalies, there are a few constants which apply to most leagues and situations that you need to take into consideration.

Skill level of the goalie
Situation: is he the sure-fire staring goalie looking at 50 – 60 starts
Strength of the team: Lousy teams usually equals lousy goalie stats

Below I will rank the top 50 goalies and categorize them into groups. Heading into your draft, you should have an idea of how much value you want to place on a goalie. How soon do you draft one, do you want an elite goalie, are you happy with two good goalies. You can put all your eggs in one basket and use a first round pick on a player like Carey Price. You may think that the league elite goalies fluctuates so much each year, and you would be correct, and therefore you wait until mid-draft and pick a goalie who may have a monster year. Once you have an idea of how your draft strategy, you need to look at ranking the goalies into a tier system. I suggest looking at some of the better fantasy hockey predictors such as the McKeens yearbook, and Dobber hockey and then create your own draft tier list like the one I created below.

Tier I: The Elite

These are the best of the best; they play on Stanley Cup contenders and are the undisputed starter, and are Vezina calibre.

1. Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens – He won it all last year, Vezina, Hart, Lindsay, and Jennings.

2. Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers – King Henrik is arguably the best goalie on the planet.

3. Jonathan Quick, LA Kings – No contest who is the starter with the two time Cup Champion.

4. Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals – New addition to the top five after a breakout year.

5. Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning – Big Ben needs to stay healthy, if so he is elite.

Tier II: The very good

Nothing wrong with this group, they are all capable of being elite but have some question.

6. Pekka Rinne, Nashville Predators – Re-established himself after an injury lost season.

7. M.A. Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins – Always has strong regular season stats and the Pens have beefed up.

8. Tuukka Rask, Boston Bruins – Rask is solid, but what direction are the Bruins headed?

9. Corey Crawford, Chicago Blackhawks – Crawford struggled at times and temporarily lost the crease in playoffs to Scott Darling. A hiccup or a warning sign?

10. Jaroslav Halak, New York Islanders - Was unable to get job done in St. Louis but has looked good on the Island. The Islanders are a team on the rise, can he do for them what he couldn’t do in St. Louis?

Tier III: Good goalies in bad situations

11. Semyon Varlamov, Colorado Avalanche – The Avs had a huge regression but Varly remained solid.

12. Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus – Injuries killed the season last year but Columbus are a team on the rise

13. Roberto Luongo, Florida Panthers – Roberto is getting older, will the Panthers improve while he can still make a difference?

14. Corey Schneider, New Jersey Devils – Entering his prime but desperately needs some run support.

15. Steve Mason, Philadelphia Flyers – Flyers may have finally found their starting goalie

16. Devan Dubnyk, Minnesota Wild – This time last year he was a fantasy after thought, then went on to play in over 40 straight games earning a Vezina nomination. Would the real Dubnyk please stand up?

Tier IV: Should be the starting goalie on a good team…should be!

17. Jonas Hiller, Calgary Flames – Rebound season, Flames projected to regress, contract year, a lot of questions with this player.

18. Frederik Andersen, Anaheim Ducks – With the addition of Khudobin and Gibson pushing, Andersen could lose some starts at the first sign of trouble.

19. Craig Anderson, Ottawa Senators – Has elite type stats, but can’t stay healthy. Had the crease burgled late in the season.

20. Ryan Miller, Vancouver Canucks – Jacob Markstrom will push Miller who struggled at times last year.

Tier V: Split starters on good teams

Tandem situations where the team will ride two goalies, ideal for handcuff situations

21. Jimmy Howard, Detroit Red Wings – Lost the starting job in playoffs, but contract says he is the starter

22. Petr Mrazek, Detroit Red Wings – Is younger and arguably better than Howard.

23. Brian Elliott, St. Louis Blues – Like Howard, lost the starting job in the playoffs.

24. Jake Allen, St. Louis Blues – Is the gaolie of the future, which could begin immediately.

25. Kari Lehtonen, Dallas Stars – Brutal season, may flourish with less pressure.

26. Antti Niemi, Dallas Stars – Couldn’t cut it as a starter in San Jose, may work well in tandem.

Tier VI: The Unknown

Potentially great goalies, potentially getting their first crack as a number one.

27. Martin Jones, San Jose Sharks – Sharks could have a good season and Jones could see the lions share of the starts.

28. Robin Lehner, Buffalo Sabres – Tim Murray believes in Lehner, he drafted him in Ottawa, gave up a first to bring him to Buffalo, but has injury history.

29. Cam Talbot, Edmonton Oilers – Talbot was excellent spelling Henrik Lundqvist when he was injured behind a strong New York Rangers defence.

Tier VII: Split starters on bad teams

30. Jonathan Bernier, Toronto Maple Leafs – The Leafs badly want him to be the answer in goal.

31. James Reimer, Toronto Maple Leafs – Clean slate in Toronto with new management, it’s now or never for Optimus Reim.

32. Ondrej Pavelec, Winnipeg Jets – The Jets are not a bad team, but Pavelec has proven to be very inconsistent

33. Michael Hutchinson, Winnipeg Jets – Again, Jets are a good team, but Hutchinson struggled later in the season

34. Cam Ward, Carolina Hurricanes – Ward has been in steady decline, but is in a UFA contract year.

35. Eddie Lack, Carolina Hurricanes – Lack is a player on the rise. In a better situation he would rank higher. His time may come next year, or as soon as now.

Tier VIII: Boom or Bust

These players need a break to reach their full potential, but I’m saying there is a chance.

36. John Gibson, Anaheim Ducks – If he were not injured last year, he could have been ranked in the top three tiers

37. Andrew Hammond, Ottawa Senators – Count on Anderson being injured, and when that happens, the Sens will look to Hammond. Was his miraculous run an aberration, or is he the next Tim Thomas?

38. Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets – As mentioned above, the Jets are a good team and Pavelec and Hutchinson have underwhelmed. Hellebuyck impressed at the World Championship and could steal the show

39. Scott Darling, Chicago Blackhawks – Darling temporarily won the starting job away from Crawford last year and has a slight chance of doing so again and not letting go.

Tier IX: Rookies

These rookies have lots of potential and should be starters one day, maybe not this year…but maybe.

40. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning – A blood clot will keep him out for the first few months otherwise he could push the split with Bishop.

41. Matt Murray, Pittsburgh Penguins – The AHL’s best goalie will be the backup to Fleury this year, all it takes is an injury and Murray will be the starter.

42. Malcolm Subban, Boston Bruins – Was shelled and pulled in his first NHL game last year but is the future starter for the Bruins and could be the backup to Rask this year.

43. Anders Nilsson, Edmonton Oilers – Was dominant in the KHL last year and returns to the NHL after 23 games with the Islanders.

Tier X: The long shots

If you are drafting these guys, they better be your third goalie or you only score one and you have a Tier one goalie.

44. Karri Ramo, Calgary Flames

45. Michael Neuvirth, Philadelphia Flyers

46. Alex Stalock, San Jose Sharks

47. Jacob Markstrom, Vancouver Canucks

48. Ben Scrivens, Edmonton Oilers

49. Thomas Greiss, New York Islanders

50. Jhonas Enroth, LA Kings

NHL Fantasy Playoffs

Carl Lemelin — Tue, 25 Mar 2014 13:36:41 +0000

Those of you still contending for your league championship are left to make crucial roster decisions every week. Starting or benching a player could be the determining factor between winning or losing in the playoffs.

You all know who your studs are, but now that most fantasy rosters are set for the championship drive, let’s look at those bubble players; the ones you should ride as weekly starters and those who should be shelved for the rest of the year.

RIDE ‘EM

Valteri Filppula (C) – TBL: As good a first half as everyone thought he had, Filppula is authoring an even better second. Currently riding an 8-game point streak (4-8-12, +4), the Finn pivot also benefits from manning the point on Tampa’s first PP unit which also features red hot Steven Stamkos. Classic case of a late-bloomer, with a career-best season at the age of 30.

Ondrej Palat (LW) – TBL: The 22 y/o Czech rookie has always found a way to produce offense at every level. His line, center by Filppula and completed by Ryan Callahan on RW, is one of the hottest in the NHL. Consequently, Palat has been promoted to the PP’s top unit, where he benefits from the new-found chemistry with his regular linemates. His numbers are no fluke; very smart playmaker.

Gustav Nyquist (RW-LW) – DET: Simply one of the best goal scorers in the league at the moment: 12G, 9A for 21 pts (+9) in 17 GP since Feb. 2^nd. What’s even more impressive is that Nyquist is doing this without that much help from his regular linemates (Riley Sheahan and Tomas Tatar aren’t exactly tearing it up). This should be enough to convince his owners to pencil him in from here on out.

Steve Mason (G) – PHI: The Flyers have definitely figured it out since Craig Berube took over behind the bench. First they took care of their horrible defensive warts, than they worked through the offensive issues that haunted them in the first half. Now they’re firing on all cylinders and Steve Mason’s owners are reaping the benefits: 11-3-1 record since Feb 1^st, with a .923 SP and 2 SO. As safe a bet as there is in the crease outside of Tukka Rask at the moment.

Wayne Simmonds (RW) – PHI: A point-a-game producer since Feb 1^st (15-7-9-16), Simmonds is establishing himself as one of the best young power forwards in the NHL. His line isn’t quite lighting it up (centered by Braden Schenn, with Vincent Lecavalier on LW), but Simmonds has scored 13 of his 24 goals on a red hot first PP unit keyed by center Claude Giroux’s all-world playmaking abilities.

T.J. Brodie (D) – CAL: Has taken full advantage of Dennis Wideman’s injury, producing at a career-best pace (6-0-6-6, +10). Although you shouldn’t expect a point-a-game pace, Brodie is a solid option as a no.5 or 6 D in most fantasy leagues for the rest of the year.

BENCH ‘EM

Mike Ribeiro (C) – PHO: After a stellar season in Washington, Ribeiro is in the midst of one of the worst slumps in his career. The playmaking wiz strives on ice-time and creativity. However his blatant lack of discipline and lackadaisical play lately has earned him a benching following a misconduct on Feb 28^th. Since then things have yet to improve (12-1-3-4, -5). He has been demoted to third or fourth line duty and to the second PP unit. Monitor his play and icetime. Both must sharply pick up before you can start him again.

Jay Bouwmeester (D) – STL: After a hot offensive first half, Bouwmeester has come back down to earth since his return from the Olympics: 13-0-2-2, with both points coming in the same game. I never viewed Bouwmeester as a reliable source of offense from the back end. Don’t expect anything more than his career average of 0.41 PPG the rest of the way. If you have a better option, he should be benched; if not, good luck!

Brent Seabrook (D) – CHI: Yes he still is Duncan Keith’s partner, but he is far from his equal. Seabrook has only one assist in his last 8 games and mans the point on a second PP unit of the Hawks that has been very cold. Chicago has been extremely top-heavy in its offensive production lately, which hurts Seabrook’s likelihood of producing points.

Dan Boyle (D) – SJS: It seems time has finally caught up to this once elite offensive defenseman. He has suffered through long point droughts this season, including one of ten straight games between Jan 20^th and Feb 7^th. Currently mired in a 5-gamer, Boyle can simply no longer be considered an automatic starter.

Bobby Ryan (RW) – OTT: The Sens’ first half success was keyed by a hot second line, centered by emerging center Kyle Turris. Not so coincidentally, their second half debacle can be partly explained by the complete collapse of that same line. Bobby Ryan is on that line and there is no relief in sight: 16-3-3-6 (-7) since Feb 1st. Now comes word that he has suffered an upper-body injury.

Goaltending Carousel

Carl Lemelin — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 13:59:27 +0000

The volatility of the goaltending market is at an all-time high. Every time you think you’ve got it figured out, your crease stud allows a dozen goals in a three-game span. Then when he is benched, he shuts the door in a 35-shot shutout. Yes, goalies are the main source of frustration for all GM’s (NHL and fantasy alike). Just ask Henrik Lundqvist owners how they feel so far this season.

All we can do is monitor their ups and downs and start the right guy; the one that’s embarking on a hot streak. I’ll let you figure out the highs and lows on your own, because your guess is as good as mine. What I hope to help with here is identifying some stoppers whose career outlooks seem to have taken a turn for the better or the worse in this early season. Since forecasting the short term is such a risky proposition I’ll also examine the mid-to-long term outlook for these goalies.

ON THE UPSWING

Kari Lehtonen (DAL):

If you’ve read my postings for the past three years, you already know that I’ve been singing Lehtonen’s praises for a while. I believe he is the most underrated tender in the NHL. Playing in Atlanta and Dallas over an eight-year career doesn’t help much getting you noticed. Although he is coming off a minor injury, his early durability issues have been solved by improving his diet and off-season work habits. Just how good is he? Stars’ GA/G in the 5 games he missed: 4.40; Lehtonen’s GAA in 5 games: 1.69. The competitive and athletic Finn loves facing lots of shots and is well served in Dallas. His .915 career Sv% would be much higher had he ever played behind more structured defensive teams. His .961 Sv% (ranked 2^nd) this season is a sign of things to come from a 29 y/o just entering his prime years.

Steve Mason (PHI):

His Calder Trophy rookie season back in 2008-09 was no fluke. Mason’s natural talent is undeniable. The combination of size, butterfly technique and lateral quickness has always been there. By his own admission, much of the struggles he went through over the next three and a half seasons stemmed from a loss of self-confidence. I would argue that playing for a Columbus organization that lacked any sense of direction played a huge role in destroying an elite talent’s swagger. Philly is struggling this season, but Mason has been their only bright spot. He’s the main reason for their 9^th ranked PK (83.7%) and his .930 Sv% while playing behind a mediocre squad has squashed any discussion concerning the number one job as Ray Emery remains a back-up. Oh yeah, and the kid’s still only 25.

Also keep an eye on: Ben Bishop (TAM).

TAKING A STEP BACK

Braden Holtby (WAS):

For a second straight season, the Caps are off to a lethargic start. They are currently ranked 24^th in the NHL in 5-on-5 play as Adam Oates’ system is once again slow to take hold. Holtby has been pulled from two of his 10 starts this season and has allowed 3 or more goals in half of them. He was seen barking his frustration at his own bench after getting the hook in Calgary on Saturday. It should be mentioned that Holtby and the Caps had an even worse start last season and the then 23 y/o tender finished with a solid .920 Sv%. There is also a bright spot this year as Washington boasts the second best PK efficiency the league at 89.2%. There certainly is no reason to panic for those who own this young super-talented athlete, but he should be benched until his teammates start showing better cohesion in front of him.

Devan Dubnyk (EDM):

The Oilers’s brass may not have been satisfied with the progression rate of their young players under ex-coach Ralph Krueger, but he had them playing a much more structured game than the one displayed through 13 games so far this season under Dallas Eakins. Edmonton ranks dead last in GA/G at 3.77 (compared to 19^th at 2.73 in 2013) and second-to-last in PK efficiency at 75.5% (compared to 9^th at 83.4% in 2013). The addition of captain Andrew Ference should help make Edmonton’s defense better on paper, but the concept of team defense still eludes many of this young team’s dynamic offensive stars. Dubnyk is much better than his .878 Sv% might suggest, but is partly a victim of circumstance at the moment, therefore rendering him a fantasy dud.

Should also warm-up your bench: Ondrej Pavelec (WIN).