joe thornton – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – A Look Back at the 2020-21 Season

Scott Cullen — Thu, 20 May 2021 19:33:41 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, a look back at the 2021 season and some of the underlying and sometimes just odd numbers for players during the 56-game season.

#1 Boston Bruins left winger Brad Marchand finished third in scoring with 69 points. He was a long way from first but, following offseason sports hernia surgery, Marchand’s longest streak without registering a point was two games, which happened twice. Since 2016-2017, Marchand ranks third in the NHL with 426 points, behind the two players that he was behind in this year’s scoring race, the Edmonton Oilers duo of Connor McDavid (526) and Leon Draisaitl (469). (Yes, that means that McDavid has 100 points more than any non-teammate over the past five seasons.)

#2 Although he had to take a leave of absence from the New York Rangers during the season, left winger Artemi Panarin ended up with 58 points in 42 games this season. Over the past two seasons, his first two with the Blueshirts, Panarin is averaging 1.38 points per game, which ranks third behind Connor McDavid (1.68) and Leon Draisaitl (1.53).

DENVER, CO - FEBRUARY 22: Vegas Golden Knights right wing Mark Stone (61) skates during a game between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado on February 22, 2021. The Colorado Avalanche wore retro-themed uniforms with logos of the Quebec Nordiques. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

#3 Vegas Golden Knights captain Mark Stone tallied 61 points, the sixth time in the past seven seasons that he has scored at least 60 points, and it was not a standard path to get there. In a shortened season, Stone needed a career-high 1.11 points per game to cross that threshold and he did it with a career-low 1.78 shots on goal per game. He scored on a career-high 21.4% of his shots and had a career-high on-ice shooting percentage of 12.1%.

#4 One of the biggest bounce-back seasons was authored by Chicago Blackhawks winger Alex DeBrincat, who tallied 32 goals and 56 points in 52 games after scoring 18 goals and 45 points in 70 games in 2019-2020. Hockey can be fickle, though. Last season, DeBrincat had 2.96 shots on goal per game and it improved this season to 2.98 shots on goal per game. Okay, that minor nudge does not explain the increase in goal scoring. Last season, DeBrincat scored on 8.7% of his shots. This season, he scored on 20.6%. He also played almost three minutes more per game compared to last season but it’s worth noting that DeBrincat had a higher shot and expected goal rate in all situations in the 2019-2020 season than he did in 2021 but sometimes the puck won’t go in the net. Other times, a sniper like DeBrincat can’t miss.

#5 Minnesota Wild rookie sensations Kirill Kaprizov had an outstanding rookie season, but it was a tale of two rookie seasons in one. Coming out of a KHL season in which he tallied 62 points in 57 games, a standard NHL equivalency would have pegged Kaprizov for approximately 45 points in a 56-game season. He exceeded those numbers, finishing with 51 points (27 G, 24 A) in 55 games. The rookie was putting up points immediately but was not generating shots. In his first 17 NHL games, Kaprizov contributed 16 points and 28 shots on goal (1.65 shots per game). In the next 38 games, he scored 35 points, including 22 goals, and generated 129 shots on goal (3.39 per game), more than doubling his shot rate.

#6 32-year-old St. Louis Blues winger David Perron had the first point-per-game season of career, scoring 58 points in 56 games. He averaged 18:33 of ice time per game, the second highest per-game average of his career.

#7 Looking to re-establish his value after a down season in Toronto, Edmonton’s Tyson Barrie decided that signing in Edmonton would work for him, and he was right. Barrie paced all defensemen with 48 points. Keep in mind that Barrie is going to be an unrestricted free agent in the offseason and that Connor McDavid recorded a point on 34 of the 48 goals (70.8%) which Barrie had a point. In Barrie’s 2017-2018 season, when he tallied a career-high 57 points for Colorado, Nathan MacKinnon had a point on 30 of those 57 goals (52.6%).

#8 36-year-old Dallas Stars center Joe Pavelski had a bounce-back campaign after a tough start in Dallas in 2019-2020. He finished with 51 points (25 G, 26 A), scoring 13 of his 25 goals on the power play. Since 2013-2014, Pavelski has 25 goals scored via deflections. Winnipeg Jets captain Blake Wheeler has the second most goals on deflections in that time with 16.

#9 There were five defensemen that had at least 15 points this season that recorded more than half of their points on the power play. Florida’s Keith Yandle (66.7%), Arizona’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson (58.3%), Montreal’s Shea Weber (57.9%), Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman (53.3%), and Los Angeles’ Drew Doughty (52.9%).

#10 On the other end of the spectrum, there were 60 defensemen to put up at least 20 points this season. Those with the lowest percentage of power play points were Toronto’s Justin Holl (0.0%), Toronto’s Jake Muzzin (7.4%), Florida’s MacKenzie Weegar (8.3%), and Nashville’s Mattias Ekholm along with Minnesota’s Jonas Brodin (both 8.7%).

#11 Minnesota Wild left winger Marcus Foligno had a career season, scoring a career-high 26 points in 39 games. Foligno had zero power play points. The other top even-strength scorers without any power play points: Winnipeg’s Mason Appleton (24), Montreal’s Phillip Danault (23), as well as the Rangers’ Filip Chytil (22) and Alexis Lafreniere (21). Minnesota’s Jordan Greenway had 31 even-strength points with one power-play point and Vancouver rookie Nils Hoglander had 26 even-strength points with one power-play point.

#12 There were 389 forwards that played at least 300 5-on-5 minutes this season. The leaders in individual expected goals per 60 minutes were Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher (1.30), Toronto’s Auston Matthews (1.14), Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk (1.02), Minnesota’s Joel Eriksson Ek (1.02), the Islanders’ Anders Lee (1.01), and Carolina’s Nino Niederreiter (1.01). Familiar names for this category but it also shows the difference between an elite finisher like Matthews and others who generate the shots and chances but don’t come close to Matthews’ goal totals.

#13 The forwards with the lowest individual expected goals per 60 minutes were Columbus’ Patrik Laine (0.26), Minnesota’s Victor Rask (0.26), Toronto’s Joe Thornton (0.27), St. Louis’ Tyler Bozak (0.30), and Winnipeg’s Nate Thompson (0.30). Seeing Laine at the very bottom of the list shows just what a disaster this season was for him. A fresh start, with a new coach, can’t come soon enough.

#14 Surprisingly, the most productive player from that early-season trade was Jack Roslovic, who scored a career-high 34 points (12 G, 22 A) in 48 games for Columbus. His ice time went up a couple of minutes per game compared to the 2019-2020 season in Winnipeg. His shot rate (1.77 per game) was a bit of a concern, too, but that appears to be virtually a team-wide issue for the Blue Jackets.

#15 Arizona Coyotes right winger Phil Kessel finished with a flourish and ended up with 20 goals and 43 points; it was the 12^th time in the past 13 seasons that Kessel scored at least 20 goals. He scored on a career-high 17.4% of his shots but he did improve his shot rates as the season progressed. In his first 32 games, Kessel had 20 points and 54 shots on goal (1.69 shots per game) and then scored 23 points with 61 shots on goal (2.54 shots per game) in his last 24 games.

#16 Anaheim Ducks winger Rickard Rakell scored nine goals in 52 goals, finishing with a career-low 6.3% shooting percentage. Over the past three seasons, there are 120 forwards that have recorded at least 400 shots on goal. The forwards from that group with the lowest shooting percentage: Boston’s Taylor Hall (7.7%), Rakell (8.0%), Columbus’ Boone Jenner (8.2%), Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk (8.7%), Dallas’ Tyler Seguin (8.9%), and Arizona’s Clayton Keller (8.9%).

#17 The forwards from that group that have the highest shooting percentages: Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (20.1%), Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point (19.2%), Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos (18.2%), Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele (17.8%), and San Jose’s Tomas Hertl (17.3%).

#18 Florida Panthers left winger Jonathan Huberdeau scored 19 points in the last 13 games to finish the season with 61 points, good for 12^th in league scoring. In the past three seasons Huberdeau ranks seventh among all scorers with 231 points.

#19 Pittsburgh Penguins center Jared McCann rose to the occasion when Evgeni Malkin was injured. McCann returned to the lineup a few days after Malkin was hurt and from March 20 through the end of the regular season, McCann scored 22 points (9 G, 13 A) in 26 games, giving him 32 points in 43 games. Just something to consider if the Penguins consider moving Malkin in the offseason.

#20 Finally, the Detroit Red Wings’ leading scorer this season was defenseman Filip Hronek, who had a modest 26 points in 56 games. Even more remarkable is that 17 of his 26 points were second assists. He had 11 more secondary assists than any other Red Wings player.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Oh, Canada ! A weekly tour of the North Division: Bennett stays put – Russell chases history – Filling the void in Montreal – Time to Downsize Jumbo in Toronto? – Pearson signing – The trade that wasn’t in Winnipeg

Jeff Veillette — Fri, 09 Apr 2021 15:05:43 +0000

Before getting to this week’s “Oh, Canada” storylines, I just want to make a quick note regarding the Vancouver Canucks’ COVID outbreak. Specifically, to wish all those impacted in the organization good health and a speedy recovery. This pandemic has been awful for all, and to see an outbreak of this size hit a pro team is an amplification of the strength of the opponent we face – stay safe, stay vigilant, and we’ll hopefully all move forward soon.

With that covered, let’s take our tour around the country:

Sam Bennett #93 of the Calgary Flames Canadian Sport Institute in Calgary, Canada. (Photo by Brad Watson/NHLI via Getty Images)

Calgary Flames – Bennett Stays Put

One of the earliest storylines for the Calgary Flames this season, even before we had a sense for what their season might look like, came when forward Sam Bennett requested a trade from the club, in search of a change of scenery and a bigger role.

Unfortunately for Bennett, the Flames were also in pursuit of a worthwhile return, and that’s just not something that they’re going to find in the modern market, particularly in a year where teams are strapped for both cap space due to the lack of increase, and real dollars due to the pandemic. While his physical attributes get him his share of admiration throughout the league, his rather strict offensive upside as a bottom-six forward has made his $2.55 million salary a tough sell.

The good news for him is that under new head coach Darryl Sutter, the scenery and role shift has come from within. “I’m happy playing under Darryl”, said Bennett to reporters on Wednesday, according to Eric Francis of Sportsnet. “I think I’ve gotten more opportunity and I’ve been able to play my game a little bit more”. Sutter is a coach who values a style that plays to Bennett’s strengths, and while the team’s struggles are likely of frustration to all of its players, the likely shift to selling this weekend could open up more minutes for the 24-year-old.

Edmonton Oilers – Russell Chases History

In an unusual season, one element that has brought entertainment to many is watching players chase history. Two great examples are Alex Ovechkin’s steady climb towards the all-time goals record, and more imminently, Patrick Marleau’s push to eclipse the late Gordie Howe’s record for most games played in the NHL. But what if I told you there was a third one coming up?

It’s a little weird, but it’s true. Edmonton Oilers defenceman Kris Russell is chasing an all-time mark of his own, albeit in a stat that has only been tracked in modern times. Heading into this weekend, the 33-year-old sits at 1966 blocked shots, trailing recently retired Brent Seabrook by just 32.

The metric, of course, has its flaws. It’s only been around since the beginning of the salary cap era (2005/06), so we’re only looking at a couple generations of players. It’s more subjectively counted than the aforementioned games played or goals, among other statistics. It’s also up for debate whether it’s valuable to dominate the metric – as Calgary Flames writer Kent Wilson once put it, “Blocking shots is like killing rats. Doing it is preferable to not, but if you’re doing it all the time it suggests you have bigger problems.”

All the same, getting in the line of fire remains a popular trait in the traditional hockey spectrum, and it still takes a lot of guts and durability to get in front of nearly 2000 moving pucks and still be standing and willing. One can argue that Russell would have had a more impactful career had teams developed him to be more of a puck mover as he first looked to be, but that likely doesn’t come with the bragging rights of an all-time record.

Montreal Canadiens – Filling the Void

There were reasons to be excited in Montreal this week. Eric Staal became the first player in franchise history to score his first goal with the team as an OT winner, and Cole Caufield went pro and has joined the Laval Rocket. But as great as both of those nuggets of news were, they were countered by a huge blow to the roster on Monday, when an errant Alexander Romanov shot hit Brendan Gallagher’s hand, fracturing his right thumb. Incredibly, this is Gallagher’s third hand injury of his career, though just his first on the right side.

Gallagher is, for all intents and purposes, the team’s top overall forward and the heartbeat of the group. Through 35 games this year, he was ranked 5^th on the team in points and second in goals, along with third in team-relative shot attempt differential. He has consistently been a player that pushes the puck in the right direction, goes to the slot to make sure it goes in, and when he’s not doing that, he’s been more than capable as a defensive forward, a grinder, and a pest. In losing Gallagher for six weeks, the Habs lose a lot of different game elements in an especially important part of the season.

What they do gain, on the other hand, is the ability to place him on Long-Term Injured Reserve for the remainder of the season and use his $3.75 million cap hit towards another acquisition. They also gain an opportunity to see what young forward Jesperi Kotkaniemi can do in a bigger role, shifting the 20-year-old from centre to the wing to play with Phil Danault and Tomas Tatar. I’m curious as to whether GM Marc Bergevin uses the opportunity to make one last move; he’s a Big Game Hunter at his core, and this certainly gives him an opportunity to make lemonade out of his lemons.

Ottawa Senators – Breezy Season Approaching

Sometimes, it pays to be the team that can absorb cap space, especially when you can pull in a decent player from a divisional rival. This is what the Ottawa Senators did in 2019 when they took in Connor Brown from the Toronto Maple Leafs, taking Nikita Zaitsev’s deal in exchange for Cody Ceci and getting the Etobicoke-born winger as the sweetener.

While Brown was struggling to find playing time in Toronto, certainly not enough to justify his $2.1 million cap hit at the time, the Senators have afforded him the opportunity to play top six minutes, including both sides of special teams. Brown leaped up to a career-high 43 points in 71 games last year and is continuing to pace out into the half-point-per-game territory this year, the first of a three-year extension.

His most impressive stretch has come over the past week and change, though. While the Senators lost their third consecutive game on Thursday night against the Oilers, it was the continuation of a more positive streak – Brown’s sixth consecutive with a goal. It’s the longest such streak of his career, having previously gone on three game runs on two separate occasions. With only a handful of weeks left in the season it might be a little too late to take advantage of this streak for your fantasy team, but the Sens are no doubt loving what they’re seeing from a player that is already among their hardest working.

VANCOUVER, BC - MARCH 04: Toronto Maple Leafs center Joe Thornton (97) waits for a face-off during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on March 4, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

Toronto Maple Leafs – Time to Downsize Jumbo?

Among the many dynamics within the Toronto Maple Leafs roster this year, one of the most fun to see unfold has been their vintage contingent – players who dominated the headlines in an era past but are providing low-cost support to the present-era core in Toronto. Jason Spezza, Wayne Simmonds, and Joe Thornton have provided all sorts of entertainment and wisdom on and off the ice for the Maple Leafs, and at a combined cost of just $2.6 million, are really helping keep the sheets balanced.

Of that trio, Thornton is the most tenured, the one with the best career behind him, the one who already has a first-ballot Hall of Fame pass in his pocket, and the one who can help in the most areas. But after exploding for nine points in his first seven games back from a rib injury in February and early March, things haven’t been so great for Jumbo. In his last sixteen games, he’s averaged just 12:49 of ice time and picked up just one assist, a March 13^th helper on a William Nylander goal. Thornton’s underlying shot metrics in this time remain rather good – a 55% share of attempts and a 56% share of expected goals, and his negative goal differential can mostly be attributed to a 0.849 on-ice save percentage, but there’s a point where you wonder why one of the most productive players of all time isn’t putting up his own points.

I do wonder a little if there’s value in giving the soon to be 42-year-old some rest. The Leafs are about to embark on a run of 16 games between April 10^th and May 10^th, with only one multi-day break in between, and the last thing you want is for a player with his experience to be gassed come the postseason. This is obviously imperative on him wanting the time off himself, and I don’t think that he’s a negative on the ice if he chooses to keep playing, but you can’t help but wonder if some extra rest will unlock an extra gear.

Vancouver Canucks – Same Year, Same Error

There seem to be three guarantees in life: Death, taxes, and Jim Benning using the Vancouver Canucks’ cap space on depth players. People who have kept an eye on this organization over the past seven years are no stranger to the decision-making process that happens there, where a plan is promised but each move seems to be inconsistent and without thought for what has to come next. On Thursday, those feelings were revived with the contract extension of Tanner Pearson.

Pearson’s deal sees him commit to the team for another three years at a $3.25 million cap hit, with The Athletic’s Canucks reporter Thomas Drance reporting a verbal commitment to protecting Pearson in the upcoming expansion draft. For any other team, such a signing would lead to all sorts of questions. Pearson is a useful depth player, and the term isn’t completely insane, but paying $3 million for a third-line talent is the sort of thing you should only do with lots of flexibility, and de-facto shielding from expansion screams counter-intuitive.

For the Canucks? It’s decidedly worse. Pearson has been useful for them since his acquisition in 2018/19, picking up 68 points in 121 games, but each year has felt like a slight step backward. Moreover, this contract lumps into an already existent depth logjam. Vancouver already had $20.25 million committed next season to a depth core of Loui Eriksson, Jay Beagle, Antoine Roussel, Jake Virtanen, and Tyler Myers – all negative value players according to Evolving Hockey’s “Goals Above Replacement” model – not to mention another $4.3 million committed to a struggling Braden Holtby as their backup goaltender. Pearson’s deal puts more than a third of Vancouver’s salary cap commitments into players that would be considered replacement-tier or worse and leaves them with about $17 million remaining to extend stars Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes. Oh, and fill about 6-8 more roster spots. Needless to say, this is going to be a tough, tough summer for the Canucks front office, and while they might like Pearson as a player, he’s now only adding to the difficulty for minimal, if any long-term gain.

Winnipeg Jets – The Trade That Wasn’t

The Winnipeg Jets have a lot going for them this year. They’ve got an enviously deep forward core, with the likes of Nikolai Ehlers, Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Blake Wheeler leading the way. They’ve got one of the best goaltenders on the planet at their disposal in Connor Hellebuyck. Their back end, however, is a little bit on the lighter side – Neal Pionk has been a nice little revelation and Dylan DeMelo seems to remain a solid middle-option, but the overall group of six and extras leaves a lot to be desired for a team that has Stanley Cup aspirations.

It stands to reason, with that in mind, that they would be one of the teams connected to Nashville Predators defenceman Mattias Ekholm over the past few weeks. The Swedish left-handed defenceman has been lauded by both eye-test and numbers crowds for his ability to control play, especially in his own zone. His 6’4, 215-pound frame satisfies the old school expectation of a shutdown defender, and his $3.75 million cap hit for this year and next is very, very team-friendly.

As such, it should come as no surprise that Nashville’s price for the player would be steep, especially as their early-season slump spun back around and the team began to win games. According to TSN insider Darren Dreger in an appearance on the Daily Faceoff podcast, their asking price was a first-round pick, prospect Ville Heinola, and “something else”. While no one would fault the Preds for asking for a first rounder for a player with cheap term, I can see why trade talks fizzled out here. Heinola has been nothing short of excellent for the Manitoba Moose this year, showing serious future NHL potential as an already talented 20-year-old. To give him and another piece up on top of a pick would no doubt make the Jets better today, but the long-term value lost would likely exceed the short-term gain.

Pacific Division Training Camp News

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 01 Oct 2018 13:00:50 +0000

Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim Ducks. Injury. Those two went hand-in-hand last season and 2018-19 isn’t off to a particularly good start either. They’ve already lost Corey Perry for the next five months after he suffered a torn meniscus and underwent surgery to repair it. If there is any silver lining there, it’s that this presented Perry with an opportunity to repair pre-existing MCL damage. Apparently, he had been playing through the MCL injury for years now rather than undergo surgery, so once comes back from this, he should be in a much better position than he was at any point in recent years.

In the meantime, Ondrej Kase might end up playing alongside Ryan Getzlaf, though for what it’s worth, that’s not the direction the Ducks went in for Saturday’s preseason game. Instead, Getzlaf and Rickard Rakell were on a line with Troy Terry. Kase was on the third line with Andrew Cogliano and Sam Steel. Terry is someone to keep an eye on. Even if he doesn’t end up on the top line, the Perry injury does increase the chances that the 21-year-old rookie will see significant ice time. He excelled with the University of Denver last season, scoring 14 goals and 48 points in 39 games.

Ryan Kesler (hip) has been making progress but hasn’t been cleared for contact yet and probably won’t be ready at the start of the season. As noted above, Steel was on the third line for Saturday’s preseason game and Kesler’s likely unavailability has improved the chances that he will start with the team. Steel had 131 points in 66 WHL games in 2016-17 and 83 points in 54 WHL contests last season.

Arizona Coyotes

Clayton Keller

Arizona is a team that’s been pegged by a lot of people as a 2017-18 non-playoff team that might leap into the postseason this time. That still might happen, but they’ll have to endure a bit of a rough patch right off the bat. Alex Galchenyuk is week-to-week with what’s probably a groin injury while Christian Dvorak (lower body) is technically day-to-day, but he hasn’t practiced yet during training camp, so his return probably isn’t imminent. That leaves the Coyotes without their second and third-line centers.

Vinnie Hinostroza or Clayton Keller could potentially start the season playing up the middle to help plug that hole. Meanwhile, Dylan Strome might open the campaign as the third-line center. It’s a good opportunity for Strome, who was drafted third overall in 2015 amid very high expectations but hasn’t yet lived up to them. He’s only played in 28 games with Arizona so far, but he did excel in the AHL last season with 22 goals and 53 points in 50 contests.

The injuries might also have an impact on Lawson Crouse, who was originally projected to start on the fourth line but might play a more significant role. It helps that he’s looked good in the preseason. In 2017-18, he had 15 goals and 32 points in 56 AHL contests as well as a goal in 11 games with Arizona.

Calgary Flames

Going into the preseason, one of the big questions involving the Calgary Flames was the status of their top line. Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan would compromise two-third of it – that much was obvious – but who would be the third member? The Flames signed James Neal and acquired then signed Elias Lindholm over the summer, creating the expectation that one of those two would take that top line job. As it turns out, they might share it.

Flames GM Brad Treliving recently raised the possibility that Neal and Lindholm will alternate on the top line depending on the situation. That might not last as the Flames might ultimately start to favor sending out one with Gaudreau and Monahan more often than the other, but it at least seems like we won’t get a more definitive answer by the end of training camp.

On the defensive side of things, Juuso Valimaki is a strong candidate to make the opening game roster. He scored 14 goals and 45 points in 43 WHL games last season after being taken with the 16th overall pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. He’s looked good in the preseason to push himself into this favorable position as we approach the deadline for the Flames to submit their roster. Dillon Dube has probably done enough to make the Flames as well. He’s been busy in the preseason with four goals and six points in six games. Dube, 20, had 38 goals and 84 points in 53 WHL contests.

Edmonton Oilers

Ty Rattie

Ty Rattie has 19 points in 49 career NHL games. In the 2018 preseason he’s scored seven goals and 11 points in four contests. That’s pretty crazy, but Oilers fans probably remember another player that excelled in exhibition games only to fizzle out just a year back. Kailer Yamamoto had five goals and seven points in six preseason games in 2017, which isn’t quite at Rattie’s level, but it was still exciting to see coming from a player that just turned 19-years-old and wasn’t expected to be NHL-ready yet. When it came to the regular season though, Yamamoto had three assists in nine games before being returned to the WHL.

There’s another similarity between them too. While Yamamoto didn’t consistently play alongside Connor McDavid, the superstar was Yamamoto’s most common linemate. Similarly, Rattie is now projected to play alongside McDavid and much of his recent production can be attributed to who he’s sharing the ice with. There’re differences too though. While Rattie doesn’t have an extensive NHL resume, the 25-year-old is certainly significantly more experienced and was already expected to make the team. More importantly though is the position each player is in. Plus, the Rattie experiment with McDavid has been going on longer than just the preseason. In Rattie’s 14 games with Edmonton in 2017-18, he spent a large majority of his 5-on-5 ice time alongside McDavid and Rattie recorded five goals and nine points as a result.

So, there is some reason to believe that the Rattie-McDavid experiment has staying power and while we’re not expecting anything like the superstar numbers we’ve seen out of Rattie in the preseason to continue, he should be a pretty solid contributor if he stays on that top line.

On a less upbeat note, Mikko Koskinen, who is slated to be the Edmonton Oilers’ backup goaltender after excelling in the KHL, has been a mixed bag in the preseason. That created some speculation that Al Montoya would earn the job over Koskinen, but ultimately Montoya was put on waivers while Koskinen is still with the team. It’s not too surprising of an outcome. Edmonton made a $2.5 million commitment to Koskinen, so they’re not going to change course before a single regular season game has even been played.

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings didn’t make a lot of changes over the summer, but they did make one big move by signing Ilya Kovalchuk. He’s perhaps this season’s biggest X-Factor because he was one of the league’s best snipers when he left, but we’ll have to see what he’s like at the age of 35 and after five seasons in the KHL. For what little it’s worth, Kovalchuk has a goal and an assist in three preseason games.

There was talk of him rounding out the first line of Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown, but that experiment didn’t last. Instead, it looks like the 2017-18 line of Kopitar, Brown, and Alex Iafallo will remain intact while Kovalchuk will play on the second line with Jeff Carter and Adrian Kempe.

As far as the bubble players go, it looks like Jaret Anderson-Dolan has managed to earn a spot on the squad. That’s pretty impressive for the 19-year-old whose pro career only consists of five AHL games thus far, but the reason why he’s being called a bubble player is because he will likely serve on the fourth line and might even end up as a healthy scratch on occasion. Also, even if he makes the team it could just be a temporary arrangement. He’s on an entry-level contract, so the nine-game trial rule applies, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he ends up back in the WHL before he gets to log that 10th game with Los Angeles.

San Jose Sharks

The big story for the San Jose Sharks is obvious: They acquired Erik Karlsson from the Ottawa Senators. With that move, San Jose arguably now features the top two best offensive defensemen in the league between Karlsson and Brent Burns.

That duo are expected to play together on the top power-play unit, but not on even strength. Instead, it looks like Karlsson will play with Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who is another amazing defenseman and while he’s not an elite offensive force, he’s no slouch in that regard either. Vlasic and Karlsson might prove to be the best pairing of the 2018-19 campaign. What about Burns? Joakim Ryan will probably be his partner. Ryan was Burns’ most common even-strength partner last season too, so there’s no real surprise there. That would leave them with a third pairing of Brenden Dillon and Justin Braun.

In terms of forwards, Antti Suomela has been a standout in training camp and it seems like he’s done enough to make the team. You can pencil him in as the third-line center at this point, perhaps alongside Joonas Donskoi and Kevin Labanc. Joe Thornton is also good to play after missing the second half of 2017-18 with a knee injury. Because of the injury, he’s only now getting a chance to play alongside trade deadline acquisition Evander Kane. They’re likely to be on the top line together with Joe Pavelski.

Vancouver Canucks

VANCOUVER, BC - SEPTEMBER 20: Vancouver Canucks centre Elias Pettersson (40) skates against the Los Angeles Kings in a NHL hockey game on September 20, 2018, at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, BC. (Photo by Bob Frid/Icon Sportswire)

In 2017-18, Brock Boeser established himself as the face of the Vancouver Canucks’ rebuild, but he’s about to get some company. Elias Pettersson is aiming to break into the NHL directly from the Swedish league and so far, it’s looking like he’ll do just that. Every rookie comes with a degree of risk, but at least going into the season it’s reasonable to view Pettersson as a potential contender for the Calder Trophy, just as Boeser was last season.

Another very promising forward prospect, Adam Gaudette, has been sent to AHL Utica though after getting a long look in training camp. He dominated with Northeastern University last season, recording 60 points in 38 contests and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him get called up at some point in 2018-19.

Defenseman Olli Juolevi will begin the season in the AHL as well. He spent the 2017-18 campaign in SM-liiga, but he also played in the OHL for two seasons, so he does have some experience in North America. Probably the bigger issue with Juolevi is that he underwent back surgery over the summer and consequently couldn’t start training until the middle of August, so it’s not surprising that he couldn’t force his way onto the lineup this time. In the long run though, he could be a significant part of the Canucks’ blueline.

Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas has been nothing if not eventful over the last month. The first big story to break was a rather unpleasant one as Nate Schmidt received a 20-game suspension for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA's Performance Enhancing Substances Program. Schmidt’s agent did assert that his client’s actions were unintentional, but regardless of the circumstances, the bottom line is a defenseman who recorded 36 points and averaged 22:14 minutes last season will miss the first quarter of the campaign.

That naturally left the Golden Knights with an opening on defense. It did look like Erik Brannstrom might make the team as a result, but the 19-year-old will instead start the season in the AHL. That’s probably not a bad idea given that this is his first campaign in North America after coming over from Sweden. Instead, it looks like Jake Bischoff got the final spot on the Golden Knights’ blueline. He’s 24-years-old and had seven goals and 23 points in 69 AHL contests last season.

The next major event was Vegas acquiring Max Pacioretty from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for Tomas Tatar, Nick Suzuki and a 2019 second round pick. Vegas gave up quite a bit to get Tatar from Detroit at the trade deadline, but he never really found a spot with the Golden Knights, so it’s not surprising to see him be dealt again, even if it arguably is at a significant loss compared to what Vegas paid. As for Suzuki, he’s a great prospect, but wouldn’t have been a factor this season, so at least in the near-term, this trade represents a big boost for Vegas.

Pacioretty and the summer signing of Paul Stastny gives the Golden Knights the makings of a really strong second line. The third member of that unit is up for debate, but Erik Haula and Alex Tuch appear to be the finalists for that gig.

Finally, RFA Shea Theodore agreed to a seven-year, $36.4 million contract on Sept. 25. He did miss part of training camp, but at least he signed with enough time to get back into the swing of things before the regular season starts. Having him on board is also particularly important right now given the absence of Schmidt and given that his cap hit looks pretty reasonable, this was a nice signing for Vegas.

Kane Enabled – San Jose Sharks 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Fri, 14 Sep 2018 15:29:53 +0000

REVIEW/STATE OF PLAY - The San Jose Sharks finished third in their division for the third year in a row, posting 100 points and looked threatening in the playoffs sweeping Anaheim until they ran into a strong Vegas team who shut them out twice. Once in a 7 – 0 blowout to open the series and in the series clinching win 3 – 0.

They were in the final bidding for John Tavares as a free agent, but after he signed with Toronto they signed Joe Thornton for one more season at $5 million. That is not to say they were inactive in the off-season after signing pending free agent Evander Kane to a seven-year extension at $7.0 million AAV. They also inked 29-year-old assistant captain Logan Couture to an eight-year extension at $8.0 million AAV.

STABLE CORE RETURNS - They will look very similar to the roster they iced at the end of 2017-18 barring any further moves and they are said to be in the mix for Erik Karlsson. They have limited cap space to work with reducing the possibilities without getting creative. Whatever disappointment in not landing Tavares this remains a very good team with a strong core and culture.

Joe Pavelski

Their forward group is led by the criminally underrated Joe Pavelski. Despite their ages he and Thornton continue to be one of the more effective tandems in the league. Kane lined up beside Pavelski after being acquired giving them a solid first line. Pavelski stepped in at center when Thornton was injured and was excellent down the stretch. He and Kane showed good chemistry in their time with Kane firing nine goals in 17 games (17-9-5-4) and Pavelski scoring at a point a game pace in the fourth quarter (20-7-13-20). Management had seen enough to decide to sign Kane for term, despite a chequered history.

Couture lined up with Tomas Hertl most of the season with varying wingers. They also signed Hertl to a four-year contract for $5.625 million AAV, placing a large bet on the future with $13.625 million in cap space between the two after Couture fired a career high 34 goals.

YOUTH INJECTION - While San Jose is often characterized as being an old team, they have been successful in injecting youth and growth from within for many years. A credit to GM Doug Wilson, no other team has earned more wins or a higher points percentage than San Jose since he took over as General Manager. They have clinched a playoff spot in 13 of the last 14 seasons and 18 of the last 20. Adapting to a salary cap world means developing players. The third line represents an infusion of youth and talent in 24-year-old Chris Tierney, and sophomores 22-year-old Kevin Labanc and 21-year-old Timo Meier – who fired 21 goals.

Tierney stepped up in the middle when Thornton went down and showed he can play in the NHL averaging 16 minutes, including leading the forward group in shorthanded time on ice on the NHL’s second-best unit. He also contributed 17 goals and 40 points. Kevin Labanc is a creative playmaker who jumped to 40 points as a sophomore. Timo Meier impressed in his first full NHL campaign finishing with 10 goals over the last 31 games. Both players bounced around lines last season but formed a trio with Tierney by seasons end. A full year of consistent linemates might point to a breakout.

INCOMPARABLE BURNS - The defense is built around Brent Burns who tied for second amongst NHL defenseman with 67 points, just missing 70 for the third straight season. Alarming was his drop off in goals from 29 down to 12, fuelled by a poor shooting percentage falling from 9.1% to 3.6%. Signed until he is 39-years-old and showing no signs of slowing down. He owns all the power play ice time from the point on San Jose. They will almost always deploy a fifth forward leaving little room for power play points for the rest of the group.

It is impressive is that one of the best shutdown defense pairings in the league in Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Justin Braun were able to provide 33 and 32 points respectively. Justin Braun tied P.K. Subban and Seth Jones with 33 even strength points, and Marc Vlasic contributed 28 points at even strength. The third pairing of Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo added another 22 and 20 points respectively. Like the forwards they have introduced youth on the blueline in Dillon and DeMelo and continued development will be a factor this season.

Martin Jones is signed for the next six years for $5.75 million AAV and their bet in net. He reached the 30-win plateau, 60-start plateau for the third straight season. His performance over the season was uneven struggling at times including the playoffs He flashes elite skills at time, the 28-year-old enters his fourth season as a starter in San Jose, so youth and hard-earned experience could be an x-factor here.

OUTLOOK - They are built to compete with the second-best penalty kill in the league, a strong possession game, and a solid core of veterans ably assisted by a youth group in line with the current NHL. Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski represent the only forwards over the age of 30. The Sharks are not a team with the window closing particularly. Burns appears to be in his peak at 33-years-old and Pavelski seems to improve with age as well. Wilson has added a youthful, speedy forward group to accompany them.

Training Camp Notes – October 3rd, 2017

Ryan Dadoun — Tue, 03 Oct 2017 22:25:53 +0000

Anaheim

Ryan Getzlaf – Sustained a lower-body injury last week and hasn’t resumed skating yet. A couple days back Ducks coach Randy Carlyle did say on Saturday that he expected Getzlaf to play in the opener, but that’s on Thursday so we’re cutting it pretty close now.

Patrick Eaves – Didn’t end up playing in any preseason games. His lower-body injury might keep him out of the season opener as well. He’s another player Carlyle projected to be available for the opener while speaking on Saturday though, so we’ll see.

Arizona

Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Good news on this front. His recovery from his knee injury has progressed to the point where he’s been practicing with the Coyotes. It looks like he’ll be ready for the season opener.

Antti Raanta –A lower-body injury kept him out of the Coyotes’ last preseason game. He practiced with Arizona on Sunday though, so he’ll probably be fine for the opener.

Boston

Torey Krug – The Bruins are hoping that his jaw injury only sidelines him for the first three-to-five regular season games. In the meantime, he has been skating. For what it’s worth, when he does return he’ll be wearing a protective mask.

Buffalo

Benoit Pouliot – Was on a line with Ryan O'Reilly and Kyle Okposo during Sunday’s practice. He had been practicing as a bottom-six forward previously, so it will be interesting to see if he ends up on that unit to start the campaign.

Zemgus Girgensons – It was bad news for Girgensons. He was previously on Ryan O'Reilly and Kyle Okposo’s line, but Girgensons was knocked down to the third unit with Sam Reinhart and Jason Pominville. The Sabres’ third line has potential though.

Rasmus Ristolainen – After averaging 26:28 minutes per game last season (up from 25:17 minutes in 2015-16), Sabres coach Phil Housley wants to cut Ristolainen down to 22-23 minutes per game. The hope is that will keep him fresher for the final stretch.

Calgary

Jaromir Jagr – Signed a one-year contract with Calgary that comes with a $1 million base salary. Not sure what line Jagr plays for, but here’s a fun aside: Jagr was drafted the same year as Matthew Tkachuk’s father Keith. Keith Tkachuk retired seven years ago.

Carolina

Lee Stempniak – His hip/back problems remain something of a mystery. On Monday Hurricanes coach Bill Peters remarked, "We've got to get to the bottom of it sooner rather than later." Stempniak is questionable for the season opener and how much time he might miss beyond that seems like anybody’s guess.

Chicago

Connor Murphy – Sustained a lower-body injury on Saturday and didn’t practice on Monday as a result. It’s not clear if he’ll be available for the opener.

Colorado

Jonathan Bernier – As mentioned before, he sustained a groin injury on Sept. 25. The good news is that he resumed practicing with the team on Monday.

Columbus

Brandon Dubinsky – Got into the preseason finale on Saturday after missing all the previous exhibition contests due to a wrist injury. He should be fine for the season opener.

Pierre-Luc Dubois – Although the Blue Jackets have experimented with using him as a center, it looks like he’ll be serving as a left winger to start the campaign. His projected linemates are Brandon Dubinsky and Matt Calvert.

Boone Jenner – His back injury will keep him out of the season opener. Beyond that there’s no timetable for his return. He hasn’t skated with the Blue Jackets yet.

Detroit

David Booth – Signed a one-year, two-way deal with the Red Wings. It sounds like he’ll be in the lineup for the season opener, probably alongside Riley Sheahan and Luke Glendening.

Florida

Owen Tippett – He’ll be part of the Panthers’ roster for the start of the 2017-18 campaign. The downside is that it might be as a fourth line forward, so he might not be a fantasy factor for a while still.

Los Angeles

Mike Cammalleri/Jonny Brodzinski – The two might find themselves on either side of Anze Kopitar to begin the season. Obviously that would be great news for both of them, but it’d be a particularly big opportunity for the rookie Brodzinski.

Minnesota

Zach Parise – Is now expected to miss the first two games of the regular season due to his back problem. He also missed the Wild’s whole preseason schedule.

Nashville

Viktor Arvidsson – There’s been talk of him not opening the season with Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg. Two potential candidates to replace him on the top line would be Kevin Fiala and Scott Hartnell. None of that’s been finalized yet though.

New Jersey

Jimmy Hayes – More of an FYI because he doesn’t have fantasy value, but he did earn a one-year, $700,000 contract with New Jersey after attending the Devils’ training camp on a PTO.

Pavel Zacha – He’s getting a big opportunity off the bat as he’s projected to open on a line with Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri. It’s not set in stone, but Devils coach John Hynes called it a “strong possibility.

NY Rangers

Kevin Shattenkirk – It’s not surprising, but it looks like Shattenkirk will be paired with Ryan McDonagh to start the season.

NY Islanders

Jordan Eberle – Another bit of anticipated, but nice to be basically confirmed news is that Eberle will be starting the campaign alongside John Tavares. The third member of that unit should be Anders Lee. Islanders coach Doug Weight has been happy with that trio so far.

Ottawa

Derick Brassard – Has been cleared for contact, so he might be able to play in the season opener. He’s been recovering from a shoulder injury.

Erik Karlsson – Still dealing with a foot injury, it’s now very unlikely that he’ll play in the opener. Not sure when he’ll be back.

Philadelphia

December 5, 2015:Philadelphia Flyers Defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere (53) moves the puck out of the Flyers zone in the first period during the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Philadelphia Flyers at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)

Shayne Gostisbehere – Sustained an upper-body injury during Sunday’s game. There hasn’t been an update yet, but he did join the Flyers’ flight to San Jose (ahead of Wednesday’s opener), so you could take that as an encouraging sign.

Travis Sanheim/Sam Morin – They were battling for a spot on the roster, but if Gostisbehere isn’t available then they could both stay on the roster for now. Fellow rookie defenseman Robert Hagg did make the roster so he should remain with the squad regardless of Gostisbehere’s status.

San Jose

Joe Thornton – He made his preseason debut on Saturday, clearing the way for him to participate in the opener. He underwent knee surgery to repair a torn ACL/MCL.

St. Louis

Scottie Upshall – Not of much fantasy relevance, but he did sign a one-year contract with the Blues. He began on a PTO with Vancouver, but found an opportunity with the Blues instead due to their injuries. Upshall is likely to enter the season on the fourth line alongside Kyle Brodziak and Chris Thorburn.

Washington

Tom Wilson – He’ll have a hearing tomorrow (Tuesday) for boarding the Blues’ Sam Blais. He already served a two-game preseason suspension over interference, so maybe this will be a harsher punishment as a result.

Brooks Orpik – Capitals coach Barry Trotz is tentatively planning to pair Orpik up with John Carlson to open the season. Orpik usually played alongside Nate Schmidt last season, but he’s not with the team anymore. Similarly, Carlson’s most common 2016-17 partner, Karl Alzner, is also gone.

Jakub Vrana – Not set in stone, but there’s a chance that Vrana not only opens the season with the Capitals, but does so on a line with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov.

Winnipeg

Matt Hendricks – Is on the injured reserve after sustaining an undisclosed injury during Wednesday’s preseason contest. He’s regarded as day-to-day.

Andrew Copp – Suffered a knee injury during Saturday’s preseason contest. Jets coach Paul Maurice hasn’t ruled out Copp for the season opener though.

NHL Playoff Preview: Los Angeles Kings (2) vs. San Jose Sharks (3)

Daniel Friedman and Robert Howard — Fri, 15 Apr 2016 00:11:25 +0000

Summary: It should be a drama-filled series with some painful history between the teams. The Sharks collapse after being up 3-0 to LA two years ago in the playoffs, is a ghost rattling in the hallway - regardless of what the players say. LA finished out of the playoffs last year, so bring their own motivation to this tournament.

LA boasts as strong a core as there is in the NHL with Kopitar, Doughty and Quick able to dominate at their respective positions. San Jose brings three 70-point players in Burns, Pavelski and Thornton – all finishing in the top 11 in the league - but LA’s supporting cast including Jeff Carter, Milan Lucic, Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson, matches up favorably against San Jose’s. The top NHL possession team will prove difficult to match throughout the lineup.

Quick is the difference maker over Martin Jones, in his first year as a starter, or James Reimer -barring a Hollywood ending.

PREDICTION: Kings in 7

Key Injuries: LA – Marian Gaborik, Alec Martinez, Matt Greene SJ- Matt Tennyson

Critical Factors: San Jose’s power play could be a difference maker if LA is undisciplined, having spent the fifth most minutes (464 mins) on the penalty kill in the NHL, while SJ had the sixth lowest time (385 mins) – while San Jose spent the sixth most time on the power play (449 mins) and LA spent the fifth least amount of time with the man advantage. In what should be a physical, chippy, series between old rivals it is something to watch. Both teams have strength down the middle and are very close on face-offs (LA 50.5% to SJ 50.7%), a matchup that will be telling, given how much they both rely on having the puck. San Jose has an experienced defense corps, but Drew Doughty anchors the LA defense and can be dominant at both ends– He and Burns are both making a case for a Norris trophy, and present another interesting matchup. Call it even on the back end. Jonathan Quick is the major X factor for LA capable of winning a series by himself, and has largely owned these Sharks in the playoffs in the past. If he gets in their head early, it could be devastating – however, he has lost all three starts against San Jose this season - allowing 13 goals. The Sharks have the best road record in the league (28-10-3) and open the series in Los Angeles. Goaltending looks like a mismatch, but James Reimer has been miraculous since joining the team, going 6-2-0, with a save percentage of 0.938% and a GAA of 1.62 .. many playoff stories begin and end with a hot goalie rising to the occasion – Reimer is straight out of central casting – Jones will start, but a lot rides on one of their performances.

Potential Breakout Players: It is curious to rank the 4^th leading scorer in the league as a breakout, but Joe Thornton is due, given his largely undeserved reputation for poor playoff showings. There is a confidence there that is hard to ignore – including the impressive beard. In his final 44 games he scored at a torrid 1.25 point a game pace (44-12-43-55) and finished second in league scoring behind Sidney Crosby since the all-star break. Which Milan Lucic will show up? Creating havoc, providing fore-checking pressure and playing physical while remaining composed? or come in like a wrecking ball .. he can be effective paired with Anze Kopitar – who can be dominant when rolling – and finished the season very strongly – 67 points in his last 63 games (63-20-47-67) – 28 years old, is this his playoff to make a statement? – he scored 26 points in 26 games in their last cup win in 2014. Vincent Lecavalier has been a good addition with limited minutes, but will be a third or fourth line soldier .. don’t expect offense to suddenly re-ignite. Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli could give the Sharks trouble, if they focus on Kopitar. Logan Couture has been largely hidden this year due to injury, but they are a much better team with him in the line-up. He and Joel Ward, who is a noted playoff performer, could be a surprise story line, if they click.

Season Matchup: San Jose 3-1-1 – all three wins were in regulation. Quick was in goal for all three losses.

Key Stats

CF% 5v5 (war-on-ice.com): LA 56.4% (1^st) SJ 51.7% (8^th)

PDO (war-on-ice.com): LA 99.7 (16^th) SJ 100.0 (13^th)

Power Play (NHL.com): LA 20.0% (8^th) SJ 22.5% (3^rd)

Penalty Kill (NHL.com): LA 81.4% (15^th) SJ 80.5% (21^st)

Goals For per-game (NHL.com): LA 2.72 (14th) SJ 2.89 (4th)

Goals Against per-game (NHL.com): LA 2.34 (3rd) SJ 2,52 (10th)

Notes: LA leads the league in CF% 5v5 by a remarkable 3.8% over the second place team (Dallas – 52.6%) On special teams they are largely well matched with an advantage to San Jose’s power play (see Critical Factors above).

McKeen’s Hockey Pool Yearbook 2014-15: Additional Statistical Content

Gus Katsaros — Tue, 16 Sep 2014 13:32:50 +0000

If you were following along this past offseason, you likely came across a variety of charts and visualizations I posted on twitter while working on player profiles for the McKeen’s Yearbook. I had lots of prompts to describe the significance of the charts leading to extended thoughts about methodology behind writing up the profiles.

I put together the entire NHL season charts in a handy pdf on the eve of training camps opening up across the continent focusing on possession or shot-based metrics.

Download the pdf here of the 10-game rolling average of NHL teams Corsi, PDO and team level on-ice save percentage, shot differential and shooting percentage NHL 2013-14

** All metrics and how they were used is detailed below.

In addition to shot-based metrics, special teams play n important role in player assessment so there’s two special teams pdf documents

A rolling 10 game power play (and Penalty kill) average broken down by home and road (and overall) is available here -- NHL 2013-14 Special Teams

The last pdf features a cumulative power play graph based on power play opportunities, goals, and power play percentage over the course of 2013-14 for every NHL team -- NHL 2013-14 PP

The Yearbook’s 20th year edition features more analytics and extended profiles than the past, exploiting enhanced analysis offered through shot based metrics to compliment the industry-leading, extensive scouting reports known historically to our readers.

The charts I tweeted over the off season were jump off points starting from the team level and filtering down to players adding a new element in the overall analysis.

The team charts looked like this one of the Minnesota Wild. I liked this particular chart because it visually represented a look into the Wild’s season performance with an early spike and eventual drop, via a variety of shot metrics to paint a descriptive picture. Add the decline of the Wild’s power play over the season and the picture becomes clearer. At the team level, there’s indicators, and filtered into the player level turned out some robust player profiles in a special 20-year anniversary edition.

I should have posted the background on how I used these charts over the summer. The explanation should give some insight on team performance on an axis of time over the season.

The first consideration is that these values are all at 5v5, with special teams analyzed independently. The second is that these are shot-based metrics, with only one season or less of data trying to expand the amount of data points to work with lacking with sole goals data that isn’t as robust in a season or less.

Two values are represented at 5v5, overall value, and games close (with the score within 1 goal in the first two periods, or tied in the third). These lines diverge and cross each other offering a unique glimpse of the impact of ‘score effects’ (http://oilersnation.com/2014/9/1/the-nhl-advanced-stats-cheat-sheet) defined below.

Playing to Score Effect - The persistent tendency for teams who are leading to cede possession to teams who are trailing. This effect tends to accelerate the higher the goal differential in a game. For example, a team leading by three goals tends to give up more possession than a team leading by one or two goals (and vice versa). Can "wash out" over time, but can be very pronounced in small samples, such as a single game or a brief series of games.

5V5 OVERALL AND 5V5 CLOSE

Plotting the overall close lines together on the chart offers a visual with performance over time. According to the score effects definition, when a team is leading, they tend to sit back and protect the lead, with the trailing team piling on more shot attempts and skewing overall numbers.

The team effect with the lead is a higher ‘close’ line with a lower overall line. Using the Minnesota image from the beginning, the Corsi close line tends to be slightly higher until mid November, however the two lines are so tight with the overall Corsi at 5v5 the indication is that games were fairly tight except for a period closer to the middle of November where the lines diverge.

Towards the end of the month into December, the Corsi close line is substantially lower than the overall Corsi line, which can be generally interpreted as the Wild being outscored early then subsequently driving up the overall Corsi courtesy of score effects and not outplaying the opposition. The Wild between November 25 and December 31 sported a record of 5-12-1 mirroring the theory behind the image.

METRICS

Metrics presented are calculated as ‘on-ice’ meaning, two different things at the team and player level. These are records with players on the ice at the player level, while the image above at the team level is global. Filtering to the player level, graph could be very different since the player’s on-ice performance may not exactly parallel that of the team’s. The example here is Jason Pominville, with a similar looking chart for Corsi and PDO, but slightly different isolating his specific performance while on the ice independent of the overall team’s metrics.

This has significance when measuring the divergence (often referred to as a relative stat – Corsi of a player for instance, relative to the Corsi of the overall team, or quality of competition or teammate).

The chart at the top contains PDO and Corsi%.

PDO is the sum of on-ice save-percentage and shooting percentage, two individual items that have been demonstrated to lack a factor of repeatability. It’s known as a measure of ‘luck’ which could be misconstrued at times with the conventional and statistical definition of luck. Is general, luck is the random element associated to uncontrollable events that can land in or out of favor. The statistical view is one of repeatability, that is, the elements that can determine on ice performance but aren’t a repeatable events (puck bounces etc).

To further break this down and determine just which element was the dominant factor, the bottom chart plotted both individual on-ice save percentage and shooting percentage. Since PDO is a simple linear addition of the two variables, any one of the distinct factors can be dominant offering a different perspective of on-ice success or struggle. It’s this reason why I wanted to separate each element to view independently. I offered this in a post featuring Jason Spezza and how he drove the play for the Sens with games close, but suffered through sketchy goaltending.

Corsi is a measure of on-ice shot attempts towards the opposition goal relative to shot attempts towards the player’s own goal expressed as a ratio, Corsi For% or CF%. Shot attempts include shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots, and offer a proxy to puck possession and with studies linking ratios to offensive zone time

In the chart below, I’ve isolated the shot differential, to isolate shots on goal performance to the player’s overall Corsi.

Putting it all together in an example is oft-maligned former Sharks Captain Joe Thornton.

The boxed period segregated his Corsi close that was on the rise from late-November to mid-December as shown via the yellow line. His overall Corsi began to dip towards the end, but the strange part was the large plunging PDO close (with the same definition of close). The two periods are highlighted, from 10/03 to 11/30 and then from 11/30-12-14.

The take away from the table in the image is the CFcl% of 68% with a similar save percentage (0.903) but a severe dip in on-ice shooting percentage, affecting the dip in PDO despite the rise in Corsi close.

Further illustrating this is the individual PDO components of save percentage and shooting percentage, both overall and in games with the score close within the boxed area. The decline in shooting percentage drove the PDO. The Corsi close was driven by the high amount of shots on goal differential signified by the red line in the middle of the chart.

Much more went into the overall analysis, but there’s little nuggets like throughout the entire suite of images at the team level. I won’t go into the player level, however a lot of the insight ended up in the Yearbook as a result. Enjoy the 20th year edition.

Data sources:

timeonice.com .. stats.hockeyanalysis.com .. nhl.com

**********

Follow the McKeen's team on Twitter:

@mckeenshockey
@KatsHockey

My Apology Letter to Joe Thornton

Darren Kennedy — Sat, 31 May 2014 00:33:17 +0000

I’ve wanted to write about Joe Thornton for a while now. To dig deeper into how this latest playoff loss fits with the rest of his career and what it all means for his legacy.

In a journalistic sense it would have probably been best to post this article four hours after San Jose lost five to one against Los Angeles in game seven. The anguish of defeat fresh in the minds of fans and #Thornton#Collapse trending on twitter. There was outrage in the air and outrage, almost always, leads to page views.

But when it comes to Big Joe it’s about more than a headline and capitalizing on public anger. It’s a Hall of Fame, superstar player, trying to figure out where he fits in the annals of hockey history. He’s 34 year’s old now (turning 35 in July). An age where we can no longer chalk up playoff losses to the old adage that “ah, he’ll get em’ next year.” Next year, the future, is closing in on Thornton in a way it never did when he was 27 or 28.

I can remember the negative press that used to follow Peyton Manning around in Indianapolis. After every playoff exit there was disappointment, as you would expect in any city, but there was also a sly smile beneath it all. Deep down fans knew, knew that eventually, if they waited long enough, stayed the course, Peyton would win the big game. And that he did, capturing the Vince Lombardi trophy and football supremacy in 2006. With it came relief from a lifetime of expectations and a chance to build upon his legacy, instead of being a prisoner to it.

With Thornton there may be no such relief. He’s signed for three more years in San Jose at a cap hit of $6.75 million. The Sharks still have a strong core that should surround Thornton for the duration of that deal. Couture is only 25 years old and has given Joe a legitimate star level centerman to help spread out their attack. Pavelski, the Swiss army knife of top six forwards, showed last season that he can be an elite scorer, posting 41 goals, third most in the league.

Then there is his running mate, his long-time partner, the Sundance Kid to his Butch Cassidy, or perhaps better put, his cell-mate – Patrick Marleau. Who is also under contract until the end of 2016-17. Marleau has long suffered the same criticisms as Thornton – unable to win the big game, lacking that innate, superhuman will to overcome all odds, fading when it matters post – pick your cliché.

Lately, though, the focus seems to have shifted further away from Marleau. Due in part to Thornton being named captain in 2010 (taking over the mantle from Marleau who wore the "C" between 2004 and 2009), a designation that the hockey world uses as either a mark of honor, or target for unending condemnation.

The captain is expected to be a supreme leader. A man that his never known fear or failure. The type of player who loses three teeth from a high stick and doesn’t miss a shift. Captains carry this sort of mythical status that elevates them above all others (they’re the guy that must always yell “LET’S GO BOYS! on the bench). It also brings with it a world of expectations. And since 29 of 30 captains will, by definition, fail every single season, it may not be a designation you seek out willingly.

There’s also the issue (or perceived issue) with Thornton’s personality. He has been referred to as a sort of “surfer dude” in the past. Which underscores his easy going personality and fun loving nature (it’s interesting to note that when a team is winning these traits are considered pivotal, to keep the guys “loose”. When losing, this is the mark of a flawed man who doesn’t take the game seriously. Quite the juxtaposition). An offhand comment about a certain part of his anatomy didn’t help matters much and provided a 48 hour news cycle showcasing Thornton’s lighter side.

Our perception of that lighter, more human side, seems to change once a ring has been bestowed upon an athlete's finger. Take Manning, for example. No one in the sporting world would dare challenge his commitment to football. His weekly preparations have become legendary, depicting a man who is totally and completely obsessed with winning. And yet, we’ve seen a comedic side of his personality on many occasions over the years. Whether it was on Saturday Night Live throwing footballs at the back of kids’ heads, or producing rap a video/commercial with his brother, it’s clear he doesn’t take himself too seriously. And that’s ok, and we allow it, we’re comfortable with it, because he has a ring. He’s a winner.

Would we ever afford that kind of leeway to Thornton? Is he allowed to enjoy life? Crack a joke in the dressing room? Or should he be locked in a film room deep beneath the earth's surface, studying game tape of Jonathan Quick while hammering out endless push ups for all eternity?

Can you imagine growing up as a child playing road hockey with your friends, Saturday nights at the local rink, thinking of one day, maybe, ending up in the NHL. Take it one step further, imagine that you ACTUALLY make it, fulfilling a lifetime dream and you’re there, the big show. Not only do land on an NHL team, you’re one of the top five players of your ENTIRE GENERATION. Wouldn’t that be something. Or would it?

Thornton currently sits 25^th all time for assists, with 852. He’s second among all active players, trailing only Jagr, who is 8^th. You have to scroll all the way down to number 48, Daniel Alfredsson (713), to find the next active player that’s even close to Joe. He's among the top 50 all-time for total points, despite playing a portion of his career in the dead puck era.

The list of accomplishments goes far beyond just assists. He has been an all-star six times, won both the Art Ross and Hart Trophy in 2006, and has an Olympic Gold Medal sitting at home (2010). When we look at advanced stats he’s still, even in what should be his declining years, an absolute force. This past year his Corsi for percentage sat at 58.3%, tops among San Jose players and 13^th in the entire NHL.

But he’s not a winner.

John Torterella has a famous clip claiming that Thornton “could go down as… being one of the better players in our league never to win anything. So what he should do is just shut up.” Again, the key message here is that only playoff success matters. That, and only that, can vindicate you as a star player and secure your place in hockey history. Without it, you’re a punch line.

Thomas Drance recently mentioned at Dobber Hockey that perhaps the NHL (and you could extend this to all major North American pro sports) don’t place enough emphasis on regular season accomplishments. It was an intriguing thought that really struck me. Thornton has made the playoffs in 14 of his 16 NHL seasons. In a league where barely half of the teams enjoy any post season games he has been a mark of consistently. He’s won Division Championship after Division Championship, a President’s Trophy in 2009.

It doesn’t matter. Without a Stanley Cup ring these are all footnotes in the career of a superstar that never quite reached his potential.

Is it right? As we learn more and more about statistical analysis we know that NHL games are fraught with statistical noise. The variability in shooting percentage, penalties, and puck luck (PDO) from game to game makes it difficult to predict results with any certainty. The only reliable way we can really discern the good teams from the bad ones is over significant sample sizes. During a 15 year period Thornton has reliably driven the play and produced points in a way few others have. He has proven to be a “winner” on countless occasions. Yet he’ll be judged on the outcome a handful of games in spring.

It’s not fair. And I know that one article in early June with the summer looming isn’t going to change anything in a meaningful way. Perceptions of Thornton have been forged in our collective psyche over years and years. No matter how the next three years play out, outside of winning a cup, his legacy is likely written for many.

There isn't really a right answer to all of this. If he somehow manages to win a cup it will seem as though he finally "broke through," validating a career that otherwise lacked meaning. In reality, he's always been something great and should be remembered as such regardless of what the next three years bring.

On behalf of all of us Joe, I’m sorry. You deserve better than what we’ve given you.

NHL: Top 30 Scorers Fenwick/Corsi by Game

Gus Katsaros — Fri, 22 Mar 2013 21:44:28 +0000

It’s been written that a picture is worth 1000 words.

If that’s true, then this is going to be a 30,000 word blog post .. if there ever was one. This is actually going to be around 30,500, but hey, who’s counting.

Before presenting the following, a little explanation is in order.

The hockey world (fuelled by bloggers and math nerdlingers) is breaking new ground with the ability to analyze players and using technology to better capture the nuances missed in game to game situations.

Websites like Gabe Desjardins Behind the Net and David Johnson Hockey Analysis have become valuable resources to decipher the numbers and put meaning to the way player’s performance is analyzed.

Two of the measures act as a proxy for a team’s possession of the puck, providing estimates of player’s time with the puck. A good primer for advanced stats is here (and I will delve more into using analytics in this space here on McKeen’s)

Corsi (a stat named after Buffalo Sabres goaltending coach Jim Corsi) is a ratio measuring shots on goal, blocked shots and missed shots fired at the opposition net, over the same criteria fired upon the players own net. JP at Japers Rink has a good introduction to the statistic and Broad Street Hockey advances the discussion with a comprehensive look at Advanced stats over a series of posts.

The logic dictates that the team that has greater possession of the puck will likely be firing upon the opposition’s goal rather than a player’s own goal is a signal to indicate that team has puck possession.

Fenwick is a similar measure, however it removes the blocked shots, while still providing a ratio of shots on goal and missed shots. The measure is defined here from Raw Charge – a Tampa Bay Lightning blog on SB Nation:

Fenwick: Measure of shots for and missed shots for as a percentage of all shots taken. Used more for teams than players. Often divided into game situation : Score-tied, 1-up, 1-down, 2-up, 2-down, 3-up, 3-down. This is because teams that are behind tend to shoot more than teams that are ahead, and the further behind they are the more pronounced this "score effect" is. It's so pronounced after falling 3 behind that everything goes out the window and there's no real point in separating it out any further.

Fenwick is also occasionally divided by period, as shooting tendencies change the further into a game one gets.

Fenwick measures tend to be more predictive of win-loss records for a season than Corsi measures, but Corsi is better for short-term analysis of puck possession, as it includes more events and so accounts for outliers (randomness) better. Just remember Fenwick = teams, long-term; Corsi = players and teams, shorter-term.

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These measures are more indicative of trends and apply for better use over greater sample sizes, but I was curious to see the game-to-game effects of both Corsi and Fenwick measures.

To do that, I was able to get all the game data from timeonice.com measuring each game’s corsi and fenwick events broken down by each individual components. An example is here, using the Leafs and Sabres game from March 21, 2013

After compiling all the data for each individual game, I was able to put together a game-by-game look at the differences of each measure, by team and then by player.

This is where the 30,000 words come into play. The following is a visual representation of the top-30 scorers in the NHL (as of Mar 22, 2013) based on their individual Corsi and Fenwick measures on a game-to-game basis. Note the numbers across the horizontal axis are the game numbers assigned by the NHL.

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ARE THE STARS ALIGNING?

Patrick King — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 16:52:39 +0000

Tne Land of a Thousand Lakes is being transformed into the Land of Free Agent Spending.

The franchise in Minnesota is coming out of the wild and into the forefront of the hockey community after their big spending spree, inking the top two free agents in Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. It was a major coup for the Wild, whose 12th place finish now appears to be a thing of the past.

Sure, they were 14 points behind the playoff picture cutoff point behind the eventual Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings, but a team with the likes of Parise, Suter, Dany Heatley, Mikko Koivu and Devin Setoguchi is far more prepared for the playoffs than before.

There’s a lot to like about the Wild both as a fan and as a poolie. Parise will likely go early in your draft, as he should, but just as any championship team, the depth of your drafting will provide the blueprint to a league championship.

Heatley’s past two seasons were nothing to write home about, but it’s time to revisit the days when he was an early pick. Heatley could be the biggest benefactor of Parise’s presence in Minnesota. Aside from Parise’s dynamic skill-set, the prodigal son plays a heart-and-soul style which will force everyone around him to match his intensity.

In Heatley, you have the perfect reclamation project who should provide immediate returns. Don’t wait too long before drafting him or any of the previous core in Minnesota.

DID THE SHARKS MISS THEIR OPPORTUNITY?

If the window hasn’t closed on this group, it’s closing quickly. The San Jose Sharks aren’t getting any younger and their most recent playoff failure leaves one wondering if they will ever succeed with this group.

For the sake of your pool, keep this team on your radar. Joe Thornton will put up points in the regular season while the trio of Logan Couture, Patrick Marleau and Joe Pavelski are about as consistent you will find.

Take advantage of the fact the Sharks are no longer in vogue by taking the reliable point producers this team continues pinning its hopes upon. If nothing else, you know their point production should continue.

RESURGENCE IN WASHINGTON

If you had Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom or Mike Green in your pool last year, we feel your pain. Lick those wounds quickly because the gravy train should be back in D.C. The coaching carousel is over and if there’s one thing we know about new head coach Adam Oates from his playing days, it was his offensive imagination. This now means players like Ovechkin and Backstrom should have the reins taken off and given the green light to do what they do best.

In Green’s instance, injuries cut what was already a disappointing season short. It may be a little too optimistic to think he could return to the player that had consecutive 70-plus point seasons a few years ago, but a 50-point season (should he remain healthy) is not out of the question. The Capitals could use his offensive boost from the blue line and the contract he signed this summer is an indication of management’s confidence in him. Take a chance on him once more and don’t look back.

ARE THE STARS ALIGNING?

If the Kings taught us anything last season, it’s that bold managerial moves and adding proven talent can be a recipe for success. The Dallas Stars had one of the better off-seasons with the acquisitions of Derek Roy and the ageless wonders Ray Whitney and Jaromir Jagr. The Stars have a mish-mash of talent in their top six that is now among the league’s best.

Roy could flourish in a new environment, depending on how he recovers from shoulder surgery. Whitney is one of the league’s quietest stars and Jagr showed he can still contribute. The biggest question is whether the Stars will find chemistry, but there’s no denying these three additions complement the core nicely in Dallas.

Loui Eriksson should be your primary target from the Lone Star state. Whitney is worth the gamble while Jagr and Jamie Benn should improve upon this past season. Alex Goligoski could also return to form with the injection of offence in Dallas.

The Stars and Wild are paper giants heading into the season. Their overall team success is still a question mark, but the depth of talent on each team should pay dividends to your pool. Trust your gut and dial it back to a time when players like Heatley and Whitney were in their primes. These are risks worth taking in 2012-2013.

BREAKOUT CANDIDATES

Brayden Schenn, Philadelphia Flyers

Schenn is a proven point-producer at every level, except the NHL. Injuries derailed his first pro season, but he showed he could make an impact during the playoffs. Given a full bill of health, Schenn should evolve into the physical, offensive torrent many predicted during his junior days. Don’t let him slip through the cracks and make sure you secure him relatively early in your pool.

Charlie Coyle, Minnesota Wild

Coyle walked away from Boston University last season to join the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League’s Saint John Sea Dogs and immediately became one of junior hockey’s top marksmen. Coyle averaged nearly a goal per game in the playoffs, helping the Sea Dogs defend their league title. He will make the jump to pro hockey this season and could have a big rookie campaign with the supporting cast in Minnesota.

Sven Bartschi, Calgary Flames

Had it not been for an agreement between the CHL and the NHL that limited Bartschi to an emergency call-up basis late last season, he likely would have finished the year in Calgary. The Swiss sensation averaged an eye-popping two points per game in the Western Hockey League last season and brought his team to Game 7 of the league final. Bartschi scored three times in five NHL games, as sure a sign as any other that he’s ready to contribute.

Cody Hodgson, Buffalo Sabres

His first full season was successful with 41 points in 83 games between the Canucks and Sabres, but his second season should be even better. Now that he is firmly planted in Buffalo and with the departure of Derek Roy to Dallas, the opportunity has never been better for Hodgson to prove his worth. Look for him to reward the Sabres’ confidence with a potential 60-point season.

Jaden Schwartz, St. Louis Blues

Schwartz is a sleeper whose secret may be out after joining the Blues for seven games down the stretch. What he loses in size, he more than makes up for with his skill and determination. Schwartz had two goals and one assist in seven games and could see his role increase dramatically over the course of the season. He provided offence in every stop during his career and could be ready to take off next season in the NHL.

Patrick King is the Canadian Hockey League columnist for Sportsnet.ca and a contributor to McKeen’s Hockey. He is also writing a book on the Windsor Spitfires