Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. It is very early in the NHL season, too soon to make any grand pronouncements, so this week is more about taking a look at the earliest results of the season and putting some names on your fantasy radar.
#1 Boston Bruins winger Morgan Geekie broke through last season with career highs of 33 goals and 57 points, changing the trajectory of his career. He had been making progress throughout the previous four seasons, but that spike in production made him more valuable to a Bruins team that is not overwhelmed with firepower aside from star winger David Pastrnak. Through Boston’s first two games, Geekie has a goal and an assist, with four hits, but the key is that he has averaged more than 18 minutes of ice time per game. IF he continues to get that kind of deployment, it will be more reasonable to expect his offensive production to continue.
#2 Acquired from St. Louis in a summer trade for defenceman Logan Mailloux, left winger Zack Bolduc has had a terrific start to his tenure with his home province team. The Trois-Rivières native has recorded a goal in each of Montreal’s first two games, and he has generated seven shots on goal. He also has a spot on the Canadiens’ top power play unit, and after scoring seven power play goals as a rookie in St. Louis last season, that could be a factor in continuing his offensive development.
#3 Signed by the Pittsburgh Penguins as a free agent, right winger Justin Brazeau is a late bloomer who had flashed potential in Boston before struggling in Minnesota late last season. For a Penguins team with, to be kind, modest expectations this season, Brazeau is a good fit, because he’s a low-risk investment that could pay off if he pops. While he has only averaged 12:06 of ice time through the first two games, Brazeau has sniped three goals and recorded seven shots on goal, and he’s starting the season skating with Evgeni Malkin and Anthony Mantha, an interesting trio of tall forwards who can score, though Malkin obviously at a different level than his wingers. Brazeau has earned his goals, too, leading the NHL with 2.28 expected goals through the extremely early going.
#4 A surprise selection with the third overall pick in the 2024 Draft, Beckett Sennecke had a strong showing in his NHL debut for the Anaheim Ducks, playing more than 17 minutes and scoring a goal while recording three shots on goal. Skating on a line with Cutter Gauthier and Mason McTavish, Sennecke doesn’t look like he is just getting a perfunctory nine-game trial before being sent back to junior.
#5 The Calgary Flames were excited about the preseason performance of 19-year-old right winger Matvei Gridin, the 28th pick in the 2024 Draft. His first two NHL games showed the ups and downs that can happen with a young and talented player. Gridin scored in his NHL debut, on an admittedly fortunate deflection off an Edmonton Oilers player, and recorded five shots on goal in Calgary’s comeback win on opening night. The following night, in Vancouver, he was on the ice for four goals against in a 5-1 Flames loss. Gridin’s most common linemates have been Matt Coronato and Nazem Kadri, so he is getting a quality opportunity to start this season in the NHL.
#6 Signed to a $46.2 million contract after playing just 56 NHL games, 21-year-old Frank Nazar has stepped into a big role for the Chicago Blackhawks. Nazar has three points (1 G, 2 A) and five shots on goal in Chicago’s first two games this season, but he has also played 20:36 per game and if he is logging those minutes, Nazar is surely going to take his offensive production to a new tier this season.
#7 Acquired from the New York Rangers as part of the J.T. Miller trade, Filip Chytil managed a modest six points (2 G, 4 A) in 15 games for the Canucks last season, but he did have 44 shots on goal, which should have been an encouraging sign. His first game this season was stellar, with a pair of goals and five shots on goal in 16:25 of ice time. Chytil has scored more than 30 points in a season once in his career but if he can fill the Canucks’ need for a second-line centre, he should far surpass that this season.
#8 A Montreal Canadiens rookie is off to a quick start, but maybe not the one that is expected. Oliver Kapanen has two goals in two games but temper the enthusiasm a bit. He has a total of three shots on goal, and the Canadiens have a 39.5 percent Corsi percentage when he is on the ice at five-on-five, so that doesn’t exactly lock down a significant spot in the lineup.
#9 Signed as a free agent by the Boston Bruins last summer, Elias Lindholm’s first season in Boston was disappointing. He managed 47 points (17 G, 30 A) in 82 games and, for a Bruins team lacking quality offensive centres. Looking for a bounce-back season, Lindholm has three points (2 G, 1 A) with eight shots on goal in his first two games, an encouraging sign from the guy anchoring the first line between Geekie and Pastrnak.
#10 The top pick in the 2025 Draft, New York Islanders defenceman Matthew Schaefer picked up an assist while playing 17:15 in his NHL debut. A solid beginning for an 18-year-old blueliner, but it also reveals that it’s going to take some time for his fantasy value to truly materialize. For the time being, veteran Tony DeAngelo is running the Isles’ top power play unit and maybe he’s just keeping it warm for Schaefer, but they have no need to rush an 18-year-old into that spot.
#11 Jonathan Toews retuned to the National Hockey League, playing for his hometown Winnipeg Jets in his first game since April of 2023 when he was still with the Chicago Blackhawks. Toews was held off the scoresheet and had one shot on goal while playing 18:24 in his Jets debut. The Jets managed 42.9 percent of shot attempts and 23.2 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Toews on the ice, so that’s not ideal, but it was also his first game in more than a couple of years, and it was against a strong Dallas Stars team, so no need to make snap judgments on his level of play just yet.
#12 Playing in his first game with the Carolina Hurricanes after an offseason trade with the New York Rangers, defenceman K’Andre Miller scored a pair of goals and had four shots on goal, but also played just 19:10 in Hurricanes debut, which is down from the nearly 22 minutes per game he played for the Rangers last season. One of Miller’s goals was on the power play, so that is worth keeping an eye on., because for as much potential he has shown as a defender, he did not see a ton of power play time in New York, usually only when Adam Fox wasn’t available.
#13 Minnesota Wild veteran centre Ryan Hartman picked up a pair of goals and had four shots on goal in Minnesota’s 5-0 win at St. Louis to start the season. Hartman is centering the third line and playing second-unit power play but has the flexibility to move around the lineup and logged 17:52 of ice time, which is enough to make him a little intriguing if it continues.
#14 The Ottawa Senators registered an impressive 5-4 win at Tampa Bay on Thursday, with centre Shane Pinto leading the way with two goals and an assist. Pinto played 19:21 against the Lightning, which was just three seconds fewer than Brady Tkachuk, who led Sens forwards in ice time. That’s encouraging for Pinto because with Tim Stutzle and Dylan Cozens also skating at centre, there is quality competition for ice time.
#15 Following last season’s breakout 74-point campaign, Columbus Blue Jackets winger Kirill Marchenko was held off the scoresheet in Columbus’ opening night loss at Nashville, but he also recorded eight shots on goal and 10 shot attempts, so he remains dangerous, even if Juuse Saros had his number this time around. Columbus defenceman Zach Werenski launched a dozen shots towards the Predators net in the 2-1 loss, with only five making it on target.
#16 The fifth pick in this summer’s draft by Nashville, Brady Martin made his NHL debut for the Predators in the win over Columbus. He played with Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly, but still only had a total of 12:44 of ice time, so it’s difficult to project too much from the 18-year-old centre this season. At the same time, if he is going to get reps with Forsberg and O’Reilly, it’s at least worth keeping Martin in mind, to see if he can make the jump straight from junior hockey. O’Reilly did it as an 18-year-old with the Colorado Avalanche in 2009-2010 after he was a second-round pick, so he can help with the transition, but O’Reilly also wasn’t an impact player at that age either, so it’s more reasonable to expect Martin’s value to arrive in future seasons.
#17 Ottawa Senators defenceman Artem Zub had the game of his life in Tampa Bay, recording three points (1 G, 2 A) with five shots on goal and three hits while finishing +4 in a 5-4 win against the Lightning on Thursday. Does this mean that Zub is ready to break out offensively? His career high for points in 25 (5 G, 20 A) set in 2023-2024 and he may very well approach those numbers again, but he also has just one power play assist in 307 career games, so his role is not to generate offence. For a team with Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot on the blueline, they don’t need to turn to Zub for that aspect of the game.
#18 The highest profile transaction of the offseason saw Mitch Marner go from the Toronto Maple Leafs to the Vegas Golden Knights. Marner has two assists through two games, skating with Ivan Barbashev and Jack Eichel on the Golden Knights’ top line. Marner has averaged 22:37 of ice time per game, which is even more than he averaged in Toronto, though the Golden Knights have gone to overtime in both games, so that has added to his workload. Eichel seems to be enjoying the new situation as he leads the league with six points (2 G, 4 A) and has eight shots on goal.
#19 It seems notable that Alex Nedeljkovic got the opening night start for the San Jose Sharks against Vegas, rather than Yaroslav Askarov, the Sharks’ top goaltending prospect. Askarov has been a highly regarded goaltending prospect and was the 11th pick in the 2020 Draft by Nashville before he was acquired in a trade last summer. Now 23, Askarov has played 16 career NHL games, and it seems like this season would be a great opportunity for the Sharks to find out if he’s going to be their goaltender of the future. He may still be, but the opening night decision to go with Nedeljkovic suggests that he might not be the No. 1 goaltender of the present for San Jose. Nedeljkovic had some questionable moments in the game, leading to Vegas’ win, so this could be a situation to monitor for a while.
#20 If the New York Rangers are going to bounce back as a team this season, they could use more from winger Alexis Lafreniere. The top pick in the 2020 Draft is off to a strong start on the scoresheet, with two points (1 G, 1 A) and 11 shots on goal through two games. He also has a 33.3 percent Corsi percentage when it comes to five-on-five play through two games, so that’s not going to cut it, but with a spot alongside Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck, Lafreniere has the opportunity to surpass 50 points, which he has accomplished only once so far in his career.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick