Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Brayden Point’s injury shakes up the Lightning, the Bruins are getting production from Fraser Minten and Viktor Arvidsson, the Devils have a Dougie Hamilton situation, and so much more!
#1 The Tampa Bay Lighnting lost No. 1 centre Brayden Point to a lower-body injury that will keep him out on a week-to-week basis. As part of Team Canada, Point will certainly be incentivized to get healthy by early February, but that does mean that there could be more opportunities for others in the Lightning lineup. Case in point: Nick Paul has moved up the depth chart to skate between Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentel on the top line. Paul has just three points (2 G, 1 A) and nine shots on goal in his past eight games, but the opportunity to play with Kucherov and Guentzel gives him potential appeal in deeper formats.
#2 Boston Bruins rookie centre Fraser Minten is starting to hit his stride, earning more ice time and delivering more production for the Bruins. He has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 18 shots on goal in his past eight games. He’s skating between Alexander Steeves and Morgan Geekie at even strength and getting second-unit power play time, which has boosted his ice time near 16 minutes per game over that stretch. With 21 points (11 G, 10 A) in 48 games, Minten is tied for sixth in rookie scoring.
#3 Bruins veteran winger Viktor Arvidsson is also picking up his production lately. The high energy winger has contributed nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 25 shots on goal in his past eight games. That shot rate is elevated by Tuesday’s win over Detroit when he recorded a whopping 10 shots on goal. He is up to 24 points (9 G, 15 A) in 36 games for the season and that is quality secondary scoring for a Bruins team that is hanging around the playoff bubble.
#4 The New Jersey Devils have run into a situation on the blueline. With Johnathan Kovacevic returning to the lineup, the Devils made Dougie Hamilton a healthy scratch. Hamilton returned to the lineup after his one-game hiatus and put up three assists in two games. He does have a 10-team no-trade list, but it looks like a trade could be a possibility, especially if the Devils can’t get back into the playoff picture. In the meantime, though, Luke Hughes is the Devils defenceman tasked with quarterbacking New Jersey’s first power play.
#5 Connor McMichael of the Washington Capitals is off the 57-point pace that he had across 82 games last season, but he is starting to improve his production. Since New Years Eve, McMichael has recorded nine points (2 G, 7 A) and 22 shots on goal in nine games. With injuries taking out some Capitals forwards, including Pierre-Luc Dubois and, more recently, Tom Wilson, there is quality ice time available for McMichael. He has played more than 20 minutes per game in that nine-game span and is currently skating between wingers Aliaksei Protas and Ryan Leonard, so it’s a skilled enough line that McMichael should continue to deliver more offence.
#6 A sprained ankle suffered in the final game of the preseason put Winnipeg Jets winger Cole Perfetti behind the 8-ball this season and he struggled to generate offence upon his return. It’s starting to come around, however, as Perfetti has six points (1 G, 5 A) with 10 shots on goal in his past six games. His ice time is down a bit from last season and Perfetti is skating on a line with Jonathan Toews and Gabriel Vilardi at even strength.
#7 As the Buffalo Sabres have roared back into playoff contention, their top players have been a big part of the team’s success, but they are also getting contributions from the supporting cast. Centre Ryan McLeod has seven points (3 G, 4 A) with six shots on goal in his past six games. Obviously, that shot rate is not super encouraging but, with Josh Norris injured again, there is going to be a more significant role at least in the short term and, given Norris’ injury history, it probably won’t be the last time that McLeod needs to fill role in Buffalo’s top six.
#8 While the buzz around the San Jose Sharks rightfully focuses on their young talent, it should not go unrecognized that veteran Tyler Toffoli continues to be a reliable source of scoring. In his past five games, Toffoli has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 20 shots on goal. In addition to first-unit power play time, Toffoli is skating with Alexander Wennberg and Pavol Regenda at even strength, though the Sharks could be looking at lineup shuffle with the pending return of sophomore winger Will Smith.
#9 It should not come as a surprise, given that he has four straight seasons with more than 55 points, but Utah Mammoth centre Nick Schmaltz is a reliable offensive threat, and still available in quite a few leagues. Since Christmas, Schmaltz has 11 points points (5 G, 6 A) and 25 shots on goal in nine games and not only is Schmaltz’s shot rate a positive sign, but he’s averaged 21:30 of ice time per game in that span while anchoring the Mammoth’s top line.
#10 At 34 years old, Hurricanes left winger Taylor Hall is some distance away from his best years in the NHL, but he is still a valuable contributor in a secondary role. He’s averaging less than 15 minutes of ice time per game and yet, in his past seven games, Hall has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal. He is skating on a line with young forwards Logan Stankoven an Jackson Blake at even strength while getting second unit power play time.
#11 New Jersey Devils left winger Timo Meier is mired in a slump, with just two points (1 G, 1 A) in his past 13 games, but there is some reason to consider him as a buy-low candidate; that is, if he hasn’t landed on the fantasy waiver wire yet. In those 13 games, Meier has put 53 shots on goal, which is more than four shots on goal per game, really an elite level of shot generation. While Meier has tended to be more of a volume shooter, rather than a high-percentage finisher, he has scored on just 8.5 percent of his shots on goal this season, and that would be his lowest rate since 2020-2021. He’s also skating on the Devils’ top line with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, so that should be enough to shake Meier out of this funk.
#12 One of the great stories of the first half of the season, Boston Bruins winger Morgan Geekie has hit a slump. Through the first 36 games of the season, Geekie had 39 points (25 G, 14 A) with 90 shots on goal. He had scored on 27.8 percent of his shots on goal. Since then, regression has come for Geekie like it comes for everyone eventually. In the past 11 games, Geekie has zero goals, three assists and 21 shots on goal so even as the Bruins are playing competitive hockey as a team lately, they are doing it with minimal contribution from their leading goal scorer.
#13 2026 has brought some lean times for Nashville Predators left winger Filip Forsberg, who has one assist and just 10 shots on goal in seven games this month. He’s on the first line with Ryan O’Reilly and Luke Evangelista and getting first unit power play time, so this should turn around, but it is well worth keeping a close eye on Forsberg – who has surpassed 60 points six times in his career – to see if he is going to snap out of this slump. The first order of business should be to generate more shots.
#14 St. Louis Blues centre Robert Thomas will be out at least two weeks with a lower-body injury, leaving a significant hole in the Blues’ lineup as he is the team’s leading scorer with 33 points (11 G, 22 A) in 42 games. In the short term, it looks like centres Brayden Schenn and rookie Dalibor Dvorsky will bump up the depth chart. Since Christmas, Schenn has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 13 shots on goal and Dvorsky has three points (1 G, 2 A) and nine shots on goal in nine games, so it is a buy-low opportunity for anyone wishing to take a chance on them to fill in for some of the lost offense in St. Louis. The other possibility, which is very real, is that the Blues’ scoring dries up without their top playmaker.
#15 A collision with Utah’s JJ Peterka has landed New York Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin on the injured list, putting the Rangers in a precarious position. They are outside the playoff mix, last place in the Eastern Conference with 46 points in 48 games, and they are left with Jonathan Quick and Spencer Martin between the pipes without Shesterkin. Quick has struggled, with a .776 save percentage in four starts since Shesterkin was hurt.
#16 Pittsburgh Penguins defenceman Erik Karlsson has landed on the injured list with a lower-body injury, which should keep him out for a couple of weeks. Fortunately, the Penguins do have a right-shot veteran defenceman at the ready to handle first unit power play time in Kris Letang. In his past dozen games, so starting well before Karlsson’s injury, Letang produced eight points (1 G, 7 A) with 22 shots on goal, while averaging 23:58 of ice time per game.
#17 With injuries knocking out Neal Pionk, Colin Miller, and Haydn Fleury, the Winnipeg Jets are giving a surprising goal-scorer time on the second power play unit. Defenceman Logan Stanley, who had only ever scored one goal per season in his NHL career, has now scored eight goals through 45 games. His eight goals on 48 shots (16.7 SH%) is obviously not sustainable, but it’s at least worth tracking him to see if he gets any benefits from time on the power play.
#18 Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Dan Vladar left Wednesday’s loss at Pittsburgh, and that’s a big loss for the Flyers. He is having the best season of his career, with a .905 save percentage and the drop off to Samuel Ersson, who has a miserable .853 save percentage, is a big deal for a Flyers team still competing for a playoff spot. The severity of Vladar’s injury is not known, but every game he’s out could be costly for the team’s playoff hopes.
#19 For fantasy managers that might need goaltending help because of these injuries, maybe give some consideration to Pittsburgh Penguins netminder Stuart Skinner. His first three starts for the Penguins weren’t great, but in his past five starts, Skinner is 4-1 with a .942 save percentage. His track record is reason enough to be cautious, but if you’re looking for goaltending help at this stage of the season, it’s not like flawless options are just waiting to be plucked from the waiver wire, so Skinner might just do the trick, even as a short-term fill-in option.
#20 Toronto Maple Leafs right winger William Nylander left Thursday’s loss at Vegas with a lower-body injury after delivering a goal and an assist in just 2:16 of ice time against the Golden Knights. It’s too soon to know how significant his injury is, but a long-term Nylander injury could be devastating for Toronto. He has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 11 shots on goal in his past six games. After Nylander’s injury, the Leafs moved Matthew Knies to play with John Tavares and Matias Maccelli on the second line.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick