Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, the fallout from the Quinn Hughes trade, Connor Bedard’s injury, the Maple Leafs’ stars are slumping, and so much more!
#1 The Vancouver Canucks and Minnesota Wild made a monstrous trade last week with the Wild acquiring standout defenceman Quinn Hughes, sending centre Marco Rossi, defender Zeev Buium, left winger Liam Ohgren, and a first-round pick to Vancouver. Hughes has 25 points (3 G, 22 A) in 29 games, his 0.86 points per game ranking ninth among defencemen. He is also being thrust into a big role with the Wild. He played a career-high 32:02 in Thursday’s win at Columbus, the most by an NHL player in a game decided in regulation this season.
#2 One of the things that the Canucks needed in a Hughes deal was to upgrade their centre position. With Elias Pettersson and Filip Chytil injured, the Canucks did not have much firepower down the middle of the ice and even if they were healthy, Pettersson has not been delivering peak performance and Chytil was still trying to establish that he could be a bona fide second-line centre. Marco Rossi at least has the credentials to fit in a team’s top six. He has been hurt this season and has been held off the scoresheet in his first two games for the Canucks, but he does have 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in 19 games and he had a career-high 60 points (24 G, 36 A) last season. With Petterson out, Rossi is centering Jake DeBrusk and Brock Boeser on Vancouver’s top line. It’s not as good as centering Kirill Kaprizov, but still a decent opportunity to generate offense.
#3 Perhaps the most intriguing piece going to Vancouver is that of 2024 first-round pick Zeev Buium. He had 98 points (24 G, 74 A) in 83 games across two seasons at the University of Denver before joining the Wild late last season and he played in four playoff games for Minnesota. As a rookie, he has 16 points (4 G, 12 A) in 33 games, including two points in two games with Vancouver, and he is effectively taking over from Hughes on the Canucks’ top power play unit, so there is an excellent chance for Buium to step into a bigger role and thrive. It’s a super small sample, but his average ice time has increased two-and-a-half minutes per game in Vancouver compared to Minnesota.
#4 The upshot of the trade for Minnesota, when it comes to centre ice, is that Joel Eriksson Ek resumes his position of primary importance for the Wild. Eriksson Ek has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 17 shots on goal during a six-game point streak. Rookie Danila Yurov is showing that he can handle more responsibility, too, contributing 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in his past 14 games, so the Wild can run those two in the top two centre spots while continuing to look for potential upgrades.
#5 Chicago Blackhawks centre Connor Bedard has been on a tear in his third NHL campaign, putting up 44 points (19 G, 25 A) in 31 games, but he is on the shelf for a bit after suffering a shoulder injury in the final second of last week’s loss at St. Louis. Bedard is out for the rest of the month, to be re-evaluated in January. He obviously would like to be ready to go for the Winter Olympics, but in the meantime, the Blackhawks will try to fill that gaping hole in their lineup. Frank Nazar has moved up to the top line, skating between Tyler Bertuzzi and Andre Burakovsky, with veteran Jason Dickinson moving into the second-line centre role. Nazar had been slumping, with zero points in six games, before scoring in Thursday’s loss at Montreal.
#6 Trouble appears to be hovering around the Toronto Maple Leafs, as they have two wins in their past six games. Auston Matthews has nine points (5 G, 4 A) in his past 10 games, which is far better than the Leafs’ other big guns. William Nylander has zero goals, four assists, and 11 shots on goal in eight games this month. John Tavares has one assist and 12 shots on goal in his past seven games. Matthew Knies has one assist and 11 shots on goal in his past six games. When the stars are struggling like this, there may not be any coach that can have success, but it’s going to be worth keeping an eye on Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube because if he can’t get this fixed, a new voice could be on the way.
#7 It has been a real season for growth for Florida Panthers centre Anton Lundell, thrust into a bigger role when Aleksander Barkov was injured in the preseason. Lundell has seen his ice time climb from 16:43 per game last season to over 19 minutes per game this season and while there have been some ebbs and flows in terms of productivity, he does have seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past seven games, giving him 27 points (11 G, 16 A) in 33 games this season.
#8 San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini is enjoying a spectacular sophomore season, with 53 points (18 G, 35 A) in 35 games but he’s not available, certainly on the waiver wire and not under many trade circumstances, either, but it could be worth tracking his wingers. With Will Smith injured, Collin Graf is skating on Celebrini’s right wing and Graf has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. On the left wing is Igor Chernyshov, a second-round pick in 2024 who had 23 points (11 G, 12 A) in 25 AHL games to earn his promotion to the big club and has chipped in a couple of assists and four shots on goal in his first two games. Both Graf and Chernyshov are worth a look, depending on how deep your league runs.
#9 When the Carolina Hurricanes signed Nikolaj Ehlers as a free agent in the offseason, it seemed like it would be a good fit, between a player who drives play and a team that has excelled in terms of outshooting opponents. Then the season started and Ehlers had no points through five games, and didn’t score his first goal until Game 12, but he has found his groove. He has 19 points (8 G, 11 A) with 58 shots on goal in his past 22 games. Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis are the only Hurricanes forwards with more points and both play more than 19 minutes per game while Ehlers is averaging 16:27 of ice time per game.
#10 Seattle Kraken centre Chandler Stephenson got off to a slow start this season, managing a dozen points (4 G, 8 A) and 33 shots on goal in his first 25 games. Even as the season is slipping away from the Kraken, Stephenson has seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 20 shots on goal during a seven-game point streak. He is getting first unit power play time in Seattle, though his current wingers are Eeli Tolvanen and Frederick Gaudreau.
#11 Following a lukewarm start to his time with the Detroit Red Wings, goaltender John Gibson looks like he’s rounding into form. In his past five starts, all wins, he has a couple of shutouts and a .946 save percentage, giving him a slight statistical edge over Cam Talbot in the Red Wings’ timeshare in the crease.
#12 Veteran centre Alexander Wennberg is filling a big role for the Sharks. With some injuries up front, the 31-year-old pivot who is known for his solid two-way play, is handling more offensive responsibilities. In his past six games, Wennberg has nine points (2 G, 7 A) with 13 shots on goal, while averaging 20:30 of ice time per game. With William Eklund and Tyler Toffoli on his wings, Wennberg has more skilled linemates than he usually has and, with 22 points (7 G, 15 A) in 35 games, he has a shot at his first 40-point season since 2016-2017.
#13 Ottawa Senators centre Dylan Cozens has had some bad luck on his way to getting outscored 21-14 during five-on-five play. The Senators carry play with him on the ice (53.7 CF%), but he has a .879 on-ice save percentage and that’s difficult to overcome. In his past five games, Cozens has produced seven points (1 G, 6 A) with 16 shots on goal while playing nearly 19 minutes per game, so he’s a valuable player for the Sens, even if goal differential is not working in his favour right now.
#14 Pittsburgh Penguins defenceman Erik Karlsson appears to be gearing up for the Winter Olympics. Since the calendar flipped to December, Karlsson has delivered 10 points (2 G, 8 A) with 31 shots on goal in nine games. He has also played 26:42 per game in that span, vintage ice time numbers for a 35-year-old defender on a team that is sitting outside the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference.
#15 One of the relative success stories in Pittsburgh this season has been Anthony Mantha, the towering winger who was signed as a free agent in the summer after he missed most of last season in Calgary with a torn ACL. Mantha has eight points (2 G, 6 A) and 22 shots on goal in his past nine games, giving him 22 points (11 G, 11 A) in 33 games. The last time he finished a season with a rate of two points every three games was in 2019-2020, so the Penguins have to be pleased with how their low-risk investment has turned out.
#16 Expectations are understandably modest for a 20-year-old rookie defenceman, just trying to get established in the league, so it’s not like Detroit Red Wings blueliner Axel Sandin-Pellikka is a high recommendation for fantasy managers. It’s more like keep an eye on this guy because this 2023 first-round pick might have a bright future. In his past eight games, he has seven points (2 G, 5 A) with nine shots on goal. A couple of those points have come via the power play, and he is getting time on PP2, so he's just scratching the surface.
#17 The all-time goal scoring leader in the National Hockey League is in a slump. Alex Ovechkin has no goals and two assists in his past six games, with 17 shots on goal in that time. That shot rate isn’t bad for most players, but it’s down for a noted volume shooter like Ovechkin. He is 40 years old, so there is plenty of reason to believe that he’s declining, but before this slump he had 14 goals in 28 games, so this decline is more recent. This slump has affected Dylan Strome, too, as the playmaking centre has just three points (1 G, 2 A) and 18 shot on goal in his past 13 games.
#18 New York Islanders centre Bo Horvat is week-to-week with a lower-body injury, a big loss to the Islanders as he leads the Islanders with 19 goals and 31 points. Mathew Barzal moves up the depth chart to fill the top line centre spot with Horvat out, but the bigger jump is that rookie Calum Ritchie is centering the second line, between Anthony Duclair and Maxim Shabanov. Ritchie has four points (2 G, 2 A) and seven shots on goal in his past eight games. He’s still trying to establish solid footing in the league, but this could be a good opportunity for him.
#19 Los Angeles Kings netminder Darcy Kuemper suffered an injury in a collision with Dallas Stars winger Mikko Rantanen and that’s big deal because Kuemper has been excellent this season. His .917 save percentage ranks fourth among goaltenders with at least 20 starts. In his absence Anton Forsberg should get most of the starts, and the Kings have called up veteran Pheonix Copley, who had a .885 save percentage in 13 AHL games.
#20 Injuries continue to pile up in St. Louis, where Dylan Holloway is now out for six weeks with a lower-body injury, joining Jordan Kyrou, Jimmy Snuggerud, and Nick Bjugstad on the injured list. That has brought some new faces into the Blues’ top nine. Robby Fabbri isn’t exactly a new face, having played for the Blues from 2015-2016 through 2019-2020, but he’s back after not having an NHL job at the start of the season. The Blues called up 2023 first-round pick Otto Stenberg from the AHL and claimed Jonatan Berggren off waivers from the Detroit Red Wings. None of those players is worth of much fantasy love at the moment but they’re getting chances that they weren’t before all of these injuries hit the Blues.