Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, more young talent in San Jose, Canada passes on Sam Bennett, goaltending situations to monitor in Carolina and Ottawa, plus Mikael Backlund, Noah Hanifin, Eeli Tolvanen, and so much more!
#1 Drafted by the San Jose Sharks with the 33rd pick in the 2024 Draft, winger Igor Chernyshov had 55 points (19 G, 36 A) in 23 games for Saginaw in the OHL last season and started this season in the American Hockey League, where he put up 23 points (11 G, 12 A) in 25 games for the San Jose Barracuda to earn his promotion to the NHL. With these outstanding scoring credentials, it’s no surprise that the Sharks are giving Chernyshov a real shot to produce at the NHL level and he’s skating on the Sharks’ top line with Macklin Celebrini and Collin Graf. In his first seven games for the Sharks, Chernyshov has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 16 shots on goal and that kind of production is going to keep him in a prime spot alongside Celebrini, one of the preeminent stars in the game.
#2 One of the surprising omissions from Team Canada’s Olympic Men’s Hockey Team was Florida Panthers centre Sam Bennett, who won the Conn Smythe Trophy as Playoff MVP last season, and he played a key role for Canada in the Four Nations Faceoff. Bennett did get off to a relatively slow start this season but he has picked up the pace lately. He is riding a seven-game point streak and has 17 points (7 G, 10 A) with 44 shots on goal in his past 14 games. He’s skating on a line with veterans Carter Verhaeghe and Brad Marchand on his wings, so Bennett is in a good spot to keep producing and it appears that he will get a long break in February while others head to the Olympics.
#3 Carolina Hurricanes goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov is out for the rest of the season after requiring surgery for a lower-body injury. With Frederik Andersen struggling, this could be a prime opportunity for 27-year-old Brandon Bussi, who had a .912 save percentage in 15 games for the Hurricanes this season before getting lit up for six goals on just 22 shots against Montreal on Thursday.
#4 The Ottawa Senators have a goaltending situation in flux as well, as Linus Ullmark has taken a leave from the team for personal reasons. The vague nature of his absence makes it difficult to forecast a return date, so expect Leevi Merilainen to get the starter’s workload for as long as Ullmark is away from the Sens. That’s a dicey situation for Ottawa, as Merilainen has managed a .869 save percentage in 11 games this season, which is not nearly good enough if he’s going to be playing as the Sens’ starter. Merilainen did have a .925 save percentage in a dozen games for Ottawa last season, so if he could get back to that level, that would be ideal.
#5 Calgary Flames captain Mikael Backlund has never been a huge scorer, topping out with 56 points during the 2022-2023 season, but he has always been a reliable two-way performer, finishing in the Top 10 of Selke Trophy voting three times in his career. He is on a great offensive run right now, though, with nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 23 shots on goal during a six-game point streak. The Flames have a 5-1 record during that streak, and Backlund has a good thing going with linemates Blake Coleman and Matt Coronato.
#6 Vegas Golden Knights defenceman Shea Theodore is out of the lineup with an upper-body injury and while it’s not considered a long-term injury, the Golden Knights can afford to be patient. Veteran blueliner Noah Hanifin has stepped up with eight assists and 16 shots on goal in his past six games. Five of those eight assists have come on the power play, so Hanifin is handling the quarterbacking duties just fine.
#7 Seattle Kraken winger Eeli Tolvanen has always been able to fire the puck, and it’s part of the reason that the Kraken claimed him off waivers from the Nashville Predators in December of 2022. In his past eight games, Tolvanen has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 19 shots on goal. He is skating with Chandler Stephenson and Frederick Gaudreau at evens, but Tolvanen is also getting first unit power play time, so he has a chance to remain a quality scoring option. On top of that, Tolvanen has 102 hits and 41 blocked shots in 38 games, making him one of three forwards (Will Cuylle and Beck Malenstyn are the others) with at least 40 blocked shots and 100 hits.
#8 The Buffalo Sabres have won 10 straight games and, not surprisingly, that has made Sabres players more appealing for fantasy managers. Defenceman Bowen Byram has elevated his game and in the past five games, he has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and six shots on goal while averaging more than 24 minutes of ice time per game. Byram isn’t the only Sabres blueliner bringing more offence to the table. Mattias Samuelsson has put up seven points (1 G, 6 A) with 11 shots on goal while averaging 24:50 of ice time per game in his past seven games. For added fantasy appeal, Samuelsson has 15 hits and 13 blocked shots in those seven contests, too.
#9 While Ivan Demidov gets a lot of the fanfare as a top rookie for the Montreal Canadiens, don’t sleep on Oliver Kapanen, who is proving to be a reliable contributor. He has five points (2 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal in his past six games, and he is tied with Anaheim’s Beckett Sennecke for the rookie goal-scoring lead with 12. Kapanen is in a good spot right now, skating between Demidov and Juraj Slafkovsky.
#10 While there has been some frustration with the inconsistent production from star players for the Toronto Maple Leafs, they are getting production from the supporting cast. Bobby McMann has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 23 shots on goal in his past seven games. Nicholas Robertson also has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 14 shots on goal in his past seven games. Robertson doesn’t get as much ice time as McMann, but Robertson has shown that when he is given the chance to play, he can produce. Since the start of the 2023-2024 season, Robertson has 1.13 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, which ranks 17th out of the 391 forwards that have played at least 1,000 five-on-five minutes in that time frame.
#11 The Nashville Predators have been a more competitive squad, winning 12 of their past 18 games and right winger Luke Evangelista has been a playmaking force in that time. In his past 19 games, Evangelista has delivered 20 points (4 G, 16 A) and 45 shots on goal. He is skating on a line with Erik Haula and Michael Bunting at even strength, but Evangelista does get first unit power play time for the Preds and 11 of his 30 points this season have come via the power play.
#12 Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin had a modest start to the season, with 14 points in 22 games, but the powerful winger has started to heat up lately. In his past nine games, Nichushkin has 12 points (4 G, 8 A) and 33 shots on goal, while playing 19:42 per game. Nichushkin is playing with Brock Nelson and Artturi Lehkonen at even strength and getting first unit power play time for the Avs.
#13 Anaheim Ducks centre Mason McTavish went through a tough stretch in early December, managing one point in an eight-game span, but he has pulled it back on track with five points (3 G, 2 A) and 22 shots on goal in his past six games. McTavish is currently skating on a line with rookie Beckett Sennecke and veteran Chris Kreider in addition to having a spot on the Ducks’ top power play unit.
#14 The Vancouver Canucks are in a tough spot right now with Marco Rossi and Conor Garland both out with injuries. Rossi’s absence leaves the second line centre spot for Max Sasson, the 25-year-old rookie who does have five points (4 G, 1 A) in the dozen games in which he has played at least 12 minutes. Garland’s injury opens the door for Linus Karlsson to play on the Canucks’ top line with Elias Pettersson and Jake DeBrusk. Karlsson has five points (4 G, 1 A) with six shots on goal in his past five games and, again, that shot rate is too low to be very exciting, but Karlsson is starting to earn additional ice time and the injuries are just providing him with an even better opportunity. He has five points (4 G, 1 A) in the nine games in which he has played at least 12 minutes this season.
#15 This is not the first time this season that Pittsburgh Penguins right winger Justin Brazeau has been highlighted, but it has been a remarkable season for a player who had 22 points (11 G, 11 A) in 76 games last season. Brazeau missed some time with an injury but has produced 20 points (12 G, 8 A) in 25 games for the Penguins, including six points (4 G, 2 A) and 11 shots on goal in his past four games. Brazeau is playing on a line with Anthony Mantha and Tommy Novak as well as getting time on the Penguins’ second power play unit.
#16 Although Columbus Blue Jackets defenceman Zack Werenski is expected to return to action this weekend, the Blue Jackets have been getting some nice production from others on the blueline. Veteran Damon Severson has contributed six points (1 G, 5 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past five games while second-year defenceman Denton Mateychuk has five points (1 G, 4 A) and seven shots on goal, while averaging a whopping 25:29 of ice time per game, in his past five contests. Werenski’s return will limit their offensive upside, but Mateychuk could still hold some appeal in deeper leagues.
#17 Maybe wins don’t always come so easily in Columbus, but Blue Jackets goaltender Jet Greaves is still widely available for fantasy managers despite posting a .909 save percentage in 26 games. His 8.33 Goals Saved Above Expected in all situations ranks 21st among goaltenders and it’s notably better than Elvis Merzlikins, his competition in the Columbus crease, who has -6.10 Goals Saved Above Expected. Greaves’ increasingly strong hold on the starting job for the Blue Jackets does give him some appeal for fantasy managers.
#18 Buffalo’s winning streak has been the tide to lift all of the Sabres’ ships and that includes goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who become increasingly important with Alex Lyon and Colten Ellis both injured. Luukkonen has stopped 76 of 79 shots (.962 SV%) in his three starts during the 10-game winning streak, and that followed some uneven performances on his way to a .884 save percentage through his first 10 appearances of the season.
#19 More from the Maple Leafs’ supporting cast: Max Domi is not especially consistent in his offensive production and some if it has to do with where he is in the lineup, so it’s noteworthy that he’s getting a chance on the top line, skating with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies. Domi has six points (1 G, 5 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past five games after he had 12 points (3 G, 9 A) and 50 shots on goal in his first 33 games. A player who was considered an option for that first-line right wing spot when he was acquired in the offseason, Matias Maccelli has contributed six points (2 G, 4 A) and eight shots on goal in his past seven games as he skates on a line with Bobby McMann and Scott Laughton.
#20 Keep an eye on Dallas Stars rookie left winger Justin Hryckowian, who has five points (3 G, 2 A) with eight shots on goal in his past seven games. That shot rate is far too low to have real sustainable value, but Hryckowian is on a line with veterans Matt Duchene and Jamie Benn, and this looks like progress after he started the season with eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 33 shots on goal through his first 33 games of the season.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick