MCKEEN’S 2026 NHL PROSPECT REPORT – #25 Tampa Bay Lightning – Organization Overview – Top 15 Prospects

Prospect System Rank – 25th (Last Year - 29th)
GM: Julien BriseBois Hired: September 2018
COACH: Jon Cooper Hired: March 2013

The Tampa Bay Lightning operate with a philosophy shared by only a handful of NHL organizations. That's to identify the pieces needed to win now and find a way to put him on the roster no matter the cost. When a team has made the playoffs in eight consecutive seasons and captured two Stanley Cups along the way, few are inclined to question the approach.

The Lightning remain driven by a familiar core that continues to produce at an elite level. With Nikita Kucherov (32), Victor Hedman (35), Brayden Point (29), Andrei Vasilevskiy (31), Jake Guentzel (31), Anthony Cirelli (28), and Brandon Hagel (27) still anchoring the roster, Tampa Bay is clearly intent on extending its championship window for as long as possible. True to form, general manager Julien BriseBois once again targeted a specific addition at the trade deadline, acquiring veteran forward Corey Perry for a 2028 second-round pick. While Tampa Bay still retains most of its selections in the 2026 draft — missing only a first- and fourth-round pick — the organization is on the verge of entering a fourth consecutive draft without a first-round selection.

Despite the lack of high-end draft capital, the Lightning still features four prospects within McKeen’s Top 200 rankings. Leading the group is Sam O’Reilly (62nd), acquired from the Edmonton Oilers in a 2025 trade. Now in his fourth and final season of junior hockey, the forward is producing at just over a point-per-game pace across his OHL career. He is joined by fellow OHL standouts Marco Mignosa and Ethan Czata, both of whom continue to show encouraging development with their respective clubs.

Perhaps the most intriguing name on the rise is 2025 fourth-round selection Benjamin Rautiainen (97th). The Finnish forward has broken out in Liiga this season, emerging as one of the league’s top offensive producers. Whether these prospects remain in the system long enough to make a lasting impact is always an open question in Tampa Bay. But if history is any indication, the Lightning will continue prioritizing contention and remain a factor in the playoff picture for a few more seasons.

1. Sam O'Reilly, C, Kitchener Rangers (OHL)

Sam O’Reilly is going to need a bigger trophy case with two OHL Championships, one Memorial Cup, and a World Juniors bronze medal, plus a chance to earn more with a surging Rangers squad. Coming back from being one of Canada’s more productive forwards at the WJC, Sam was traded to London’s rival Kitchener, and he hasn’t missed a beat, going well over a point per game with his new team. O’Reilly is no stranger to being traded, as this past offseason, he was dealt to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for Isaac Howard. There is a lot to love with the potential fit with Jon Cooper for O’Reilly as a utility middle-six forward. He’s a very projectable player with good smarts and the ability to find loose pucks, earning him points wherever he goes. O’Reilly might be a rare player who doesn’t have a weakness in his game, finding success in all three zones, particularly in his own end. I could see the Bolts bringing him up to the NHL to start next season, over bringing a Sabourin or Curtis Douglas back, even if just on a rotational basis with an AHL conditioning stint mixed in.

2. Benjamin Rautiainen, C, Tappara (Liiga)

Benjamin Rautiainen has emerged as one of the most compelling late-bloomer stories in Finland this season. Drafted in the fourth round of the 2025 NHL Draft by the Tampa Bay Lightning after going undrafted twice, Rautiainen has taken a significant step forward in his age-20 Liiga campaign. After posting 33 points in 50 games last year, he led the league scoring, and his 77 points broke the U21 scoring record set by Saku Koivu and the first 70-point season in almost 20 years. He earned Liiga MVP honours for his efforts. The growth in his game is tangible. Long criticized for perimeter habits and average explosiveness, Rautiainen now plays with far more pace and conviction. His edge work and agility have improved, allowing him to manipulate defenders off the rush and operate as a primary transition carrier. A natural playmaker, he controls entries, delays effectively, and attacks the middle with deception. While not overly physical, he protects pucks efficiently and competes more consistently away from them. Given Tampa Bay’s development track record, Rautiainen projects as a legitimate middle six NHL winger with offensive upside if his skating continues trending upward.

3. Ethan Gauthier, RW, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

Gauthier is enjoying a moderately successful season with the AHL's Syracuse Crunch as a pro hockey freshman. He's the youngest player on that team, and they're fairly deep at forward, but he's still finding ways to earn his minutes and chip in offensively. A former first overall pick in the QMJHL Entry Draft, his highly touted scoring abilities more or less came as advertised, playing a key role for the Canadian team that won gold at the 2022 Hlinka Gretzky Cup, and then leading Drummondville in playoff scoring as they captured the league title in 2024. And yet, it could simultaneously still be argued that he hasn’t fully lived up to his potential, as he will sometimes go quiet for long stretches. The quality of his shot is undeniable, but he can struggle to find enough time and space to properly utilize it, usually because of a mix of both effort and elusiveness. If Gauthier can smooth out the rough edges in his game that could clear the way for him to become a feared NHL goalscorer.

4. Dylan Duke, LW, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

It is impossible not to like and respect Duke with the way that he plays hockey. He is a mix between a buzzsaw and a bulldog, and he instantly becomes the hardest working player on the ice regardless of where or when he goes over the boards. He’s utterly fearless and relentless for a smaller forward, pinballing around the ice as he inserts himself into the play however he can. It also needs to be said, however, that there’s a certain kind of brilliance to how he gets inside and under opposing players to win battles, and he has a real sixth sense for getting to rebounds and loose pucks before anyone else does. He’s leading the Syracuse Crunch in goals this season, and it’s no surprise because he’s so in tune with himself and so hyperaware of what his strengths are. Will Duke’s success carry over to the NHL one day? Probably not to the same degree, because guys like him usually have a hard time sustaining it and surviving the grind. But bet against him at your own peril.

5. Ethan Czata, C, Niagara IceDogs (OHL) (Currently with Syracuse Crunch, AHL)

The Niagara Ice Dogs have been pretty mediocre through late January and February, but Czata has been a huge bright spot. His production has skyrocketed, scoring in a variety of ways from crashing the net to using his heavy wrister as well as retrieving pucks from down low to sustain play in the offensive zone. He’s progressed quite well since his debut OHL season and is looking like he’ll make the NHL in some sort of capacity. His consistency of reads with the puck and decrease in turnovers have been very noticeable from his earlier days with the Dogs. The Bolts have a sneaky good find at pick 56 in 2024 with Czata. At the next level, he’s a guy who can score in different ways and have an impact in front of the net even when not scoring. His big hits and smarts will help him fit in well in a gritty Tampa Bay bottom six.

6. Daniil Pylenkov, D, Dymano Moscow (KHL)

It's tough to find any major holes in Pylenkov’s game. The former seventh round draft pick has improved year over year and is thriving in his role as the number one defenceman for Dynamo Moskova. He lacks the flash and high-end skill to be a high-end player in the NHL, but his patience and intelligence allow him to be effective in all areas of the ice, in all situations. He facilitates well along the blue line, running the first power play unit, and can activate in the offensive zone playing as a fourth winger when called upon. His positioning is sound, shutting down plays in the neutral zone and keeping forwards to the outside. In the defensive end, he patrols the middle of the ice and battles hard in the corners and in front of the net. On breakouts, he is always in a supportive position and can snap passes up ice to start the rush. At 25 years old, his development is likely complete and if he does come over to North America, his game is probably good enough to slot into a bottom pair role. This past season, though, he signed a two-year extension, which likely prevents him from coming to North America before he turns 27, if he even planned on doing so.

7. Jayson Shaugabay, RW, University of Minnesota-Duluth (NCAA)

Shaugabay’s development over the last couple of seasons has pushed his name up the list of Tampa Bay Lightning prospects to watch. He has been on an upward trajectory each year since being drafted, culminating in his second NCAA season being his first point-per-game season since he played high school hockey in 2022-23. He has played with the Plante brothers with the University of Minnesota-Duluth, which brings into question whether he can lead his own line and pull his own weight, while maintaining his point-production. He’s certainly trending in the right direction towards becoming an NHL player for a Lightning organization that has consistently found such talents in the later rounds. Shaugabay is a playmaker with a high hockey IQ and excellent stickhandling chops to push the pace. He needs to continue improving his skating ability and bulking up in the NCAA to improve his odds at making the NHL level. If he can continue to do that, he projects as a third line scoring winger. However, he is right on that line when it comes to projecting him, as he could go on to be an AHL all-star who struggles to find a role in the NHL.

8. Maxim Groshev, D, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

Groshev is easily one of the most fascinating prospects in Tampa Bay’s system, primarily because he shifted from playing forward to playing defence at age 23, which is almost unheard of that far into a player’s career. What’s even more surprising is just how well the switch has gone for him, fitting into the Syracuse Crunch’s blueline almost seamlessly, and even holding his own for a couple of games up with the Lightning. He has a genuine knack for breaking pucks out of his own end, and he isn’t shy about taking calculated risks to do so. Maybe defence is the position that he was always destined to play, because he was often quite frustrating to watch as a forward, struggling to fully understand how best to use his size and athletic gifts to make a positive difference. Groshev is a restricted free agent at the end of this season, and it would be an absolute shame if he and the Lightning didn’t agree to terms about bringing him back, if for no other reason than to see how his story unfolds from here, this close to the NHL.

9. Everett Baldwin, D, Saint John's Sea Dogs (QMJHL) (Currently with Syracuse Crunch, AHL)

After spending last season in the United States, playing mostly in the USHS prep circuit, Baldwin decided to commit to the QMJHL for the 2025–2026 season before ultimately joining Providence College in the NCAA the following year. It was a smart move for Baldwin, who presently plays around 20 minutes each game. The young defender finished with 44 points in 62 games, a solid production, finishing ninth in defensive scoring in the QMJHL. Baldwin is an agile skater, very mobile with and without the puck. He likes to lead the charge offensively, and he supports attacks well. He is not the most creative defender, but he shows great intelligence with the puck and does well to funnel pucks to the middle of the ice, using his mobility to his advantage to evade pressure. The physical side of the game is a work in progress, but the frame suggests that it could be there sooner than later. Since being drafted last year, Baldwin has improved a lot in all aspects of the game. Will it be enough for him to play in the NHL? His play at the NCAA level will give a better indication of that.

10. Joe Connor, LW, Northeastern University (NCAA)

Being a crafty, shoot-first winger who excels in transition, Joe Connor is putting together a solid resume at Northeastern University. His stick handling is used so well when he’s entering the zone, making him and any teammate that trails him, deadly off the rush. Connor also has his deadly shot as a weapon, specializing in set ups off the faceoff. He isn’t terribly fast, but he is fearless as his 5-foot-10 body has been tossed around by the Hockey East and Connor is right back on his feet after every hit. Connor is annoying to defencemen when he gets around them to receive an outlet pass, but can have a habit of flying up too early and becoming a non-factor in the defensive zone. Additionally, he can be a bit of a wild man when passing, needing to gain better vision and accuracy in the offensive zone. Though his game is chaotic, Joe Connor is an intriguing player who will at least play meaningfully in Syracuse, Tampa’s AHL squad, soon. He will receive even more promising development to eventually make the NHL. Just look at how many homegrown guys the Lightning have on their roster now.

11. Jan Golicic, D, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)

The massive Slovenian defender has had another good year in the QMJHL, especially following a trade to the Armada. He brings physical play and improved confidence with the puck.

12. Noah Steen, LW, Örebro HK (SHL) (Currently with Syracuse Crunch, AHL)

Steen is having his best season to date in the SHL. The Norwegian winger is a hard worker who projects as a potential bottom six forward for Tampa.

13. Marco Mignosa, RW, Soo Greyhounds (OHL)

Now in his overage OHL season with the Soo Greyhounds, Mignosa continues to improve his all-around game. Upgrading his speed and explosiveness got him drafted last year.

14. Ethan Samson, D, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

Recently acquired by Lightning, Samson is a former WHL standout whose development had stalled in the Flyers' system. He needs to play his way into Tampa’s long-term plans.

15. Lucas Murcuri, C, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

Mercuri's rights were acquired by the Lightning after Carolina had decided that they would not be signing him following his four years at UMass. The big power forward has found an immediate role in the AHL with Syracuse as a Tom Wilson lite, lending promise to a potential fourth line role with Tampa.