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THE FILM SQUAD: Rookie Watch #2 – Vasili Podkolzin, LW, Vancouver Canucks

VANCOUVER, BC - OCTOBER 05: Vancouver Canucks right wing Vasily Podkolzin (92) skates up ice during their preseason NHL game against the Seattle Kraken on October 5, 2021 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will

Vasili Podkolzin was one of the first players I ever tracked and profiled where what I was seeing left me thinking that there may be some limitations on his game, especially in the offensive end. There was remarkable determination at both ends, growing generation of both dangerous shot attempts and dangerous pass attempts over the season, and strong offensive transition control, but I felt that there was no feel for pace outside of at the highest work rates Vasili could manage and a hyperfocus on straight-line play with and without the puck. He landed at ninth on my final list for the 2019 Draft, and while he was a perfectly reasonable selection for the Vancouver Canucks, the hype train on the Russian lion has continuously had coal shoved into its boiler. Many impressive international appearances and a strong KHL playoff run that all showcased his 200-foot work ethic and flashes of skill excited many. After two long seasons of waiting, Podkolzin has finally landed on the Pacific coast, and has made his way into the Canucks NHL lineup. Considering my assessment was and has been more lukewarm than much of the public, Podkolzin was high on the priority list to check out, and luckily, the video team agreed.

Sam

I was higher on Podkolzin back in 2019 than I would be if he was a draft eligible player today. What drew me to Vasili was his uncompromising work ethic and close quarters skill. I envisioned an NHL player that is constantly pursuing the puck and enforcing his will on defenders, making them handle his overwhelming physicality and puck control skills. What I didn’t account for was the potential limitations that come with playing the game at max pace all the time, and what opportunities Podkolzin may miss out on due to the same work ethic that led to him being ranked as the fifth overall pick for me.

Coach Greg’s Take: 

“Funny enough, I was in person watching Lucas Raymond and Podkolzin face off against each other. Lucas Raymond was a factor in the game (without Larkin) and Podkolzin was not. Podkolzin was someone I was looking for and consistently noticed him being a grinder type who rarely showed off his skill. When watching the tape back, he was a player who was competing hard, but doing little to push the play in his team’s favor. Often he simply followed the puck from one player to the next.”

Will

From a bird’s-eye view, Vasili’s data from the two games tracked was far from ideal almost across the board. Vancouver got absolutely clobbered in both games, with shot attempts landing 4-14 and 5-9 in each game for and against respectively. Removing low danger shot attempts, things got even worse with a total differential of 4-11 in the opponent’s favor. On the bright side, Podkolzin directly factored into three of Vancouver’s nine total shot attempts, with a high danger and medium danger attempt in Game 1. Podkolzin’s transition data on the other hand was, in a word, curious. His offensive transition efficiency was 57.1%, which is perfectly acceptable at the NHL level, and driving them with passes or carries 10/16 times rather than pass receptions. The unfortunate part is that Podkolzin was highly, highly inactive in the natural flow of the game often, being involved in 25% of the offensive transitions but just 1 of the 67 defensive transitions. He allowed control on that defensive transition exiting the offensive zone.

What’s promising is that offensively, Podkolzin wasn’t just sitting in the neutral zone waiting for stretch passes or easy defensive zone exits but brought a nice balance of showing the ability to move the puck up the ice through both his passing and carrying, as well as being able to find space for pass receptions when necessary. These metrics do fall short of the average in my experience, especially defensively, and behind those of Lucas Raymond in the sample. In short across the board, Podkolzin drove average offensive transition data, did not jump into much defensive transition play, got absolutely clobbered on the shot sheet, was on the ice for one goal against, but one goal scored (his first NHL goal, for what it’s worth) while on the ice at 5v5 in the sample. This isn’t the greatest start, but as always, there’s more to the story tucked away in the video.

Sam

Of course, it’s too early to make definitive statements about what Podkolzin can and cannot be in the NHL as he isn’t a fully developed player yet. That being said, Will’s concerns with Podkolzin are valid and are showing up early in the beginning of the young Russian’s NHL career. He misses major opportunities to drive macro-play for his team because he doesn’t take the time to slow the game down, let opportunities come to him and make the most of the conditions around the ice. He prefers to bulldoze his way through the opposition and create chaos, hopefully finding an opportunity to create a chance among the mess of bodies around the ice, instead of identifying where the gaps in the defensive structure are and directing play in that direction. There’s a lot to like about Podkolzin’s fearless approach to the game, but I think it can place limits as to just how much he can truly impact the game on a shift-by-shift basis.

Will

Digging into the video, in all honesty there were just 14 clips I pulled for this piece that stood out in any kind of positive or negative way for Podkolzin. At this point, I’m not sure what that means for my evaluation of him. On one hand, not looking like a bad play driver is a positive step for an NHL rookie and most of the video contains small positives to carry forward. On the other hand, Podkolzin has been advertised as a major piece of the Canucks future, and that implies some level of play-driving and offence, neither of which I noted a ton of in my sample. His ice time was also limited significantly to just 8 minutes at 5v5 each game, but considering what I was seeing of Podkolzin, I’m not sure I’d be playing him too much more than that to not overwhelm the rookie with expectations.

We’ll start with the positives. Yes, Podkolzin and the Canucks got shelled to pieces with him on the ice, but his defensive acumen and creative intelligence to create turnovers is impossible to ignore. He spots open ice in a puck support position, gains body positioning on puck retrievals, braces for impact, and gains control of the play with ease. Shoulder checks, strength on his feet, and remaining calm and comfortable under NHL pressure are all valuable traits to build on as he continues to develop. This was far and away the most identifiable trait on display with Podkolzin that is difficult to encapsulate in my data and was visible in both games. In the offensive zone, there were signs of potential, as Podkozlin’s relentless energy and adaptive thinking were on display at times with noted big boi Adam Erne draped all over him on an entry and Podkolzin maintaining possession as he fell to the ice. At the very least, this is a strong foundation to work on that many young players can struggle to get comfortable with.

The goal Podkolzin scored did display the quickness of his release in open ice and completely froze Carter Hart, but as indicated in his season-long data, Podkolzin sits 299th of 375 forwards over 50 minutes of 5v5 ice time in individual shot attempts per 60 minutes, so this tool isn’t coming out of his toolbox very often to this point. His potential playmaking ability was on display with a cross crease pass in Game 1 that went incomplete, but Podkolzin clearly showed a willingness to attack the offensive zone with speed and attempt to create some kind of dangerous play in the most dangerous areas of the ice through any means necessary. Again, this was an area of the game that did not show itself more than this one occasion, but this has been a part of his game for years, and if he can get stronger and more confident with the puck offensively, his brute force approach to generating offence could lead to more production with time.

Sam

Even if he doesn’t alter his paces and become more of a true playdriver, Vasili Podkolzin has what it takes to build a long NHL career as a physical, speedy power forward who showcases small area skill while boasting a high-quality shot. This approach to the game will yield positive results and will inevitably become more refined as the years go by as he gains experience applying his bulldog-like pressure at the NHL level. Make no mistake, while we have our concerns about what Podkolzin’s peak impact could be for Vancouver, we all recognize that he has what it takes to become a formidable middle six forward that NHL coaches absolutely love.

Coach Greg’s Take:

“An issue that I see with Podkolzin is how he plays the game. He is very aggressive and competes very hard. While it’s an admirable trait, but rarely is able to let the play come to him. Top players bend the game to them and their skills. Podkolzin showed very little of that in my viewings. There were multiple passes in which he fumbled.

What Podkolzin does well is play a simple, safe game. He shields the puck and has good hands in tight spaces.  Canucks coach Travis Green has to appreciate this type of play. This style should keep him in the NHL for the season and continue to build his resume as an NHL player. Ice time is trust and Podkolzin can be trusted to produce a good shift. When the Canucks need a goal this season, they will turn elsewhere for the time being.”

Will

Zooming out a bit, it is hard to ignore that Podkolzin and the Canucks maintained a SAT% of just 28.1% across the games tracked. Vancouver allowed shot attempts at a rate of over 85 per 60 minutes. You are not going to win much if you’re on the ice and giving up that many shots in your own end. Was Podkolzin directly at fault for that egregious workload? In my view, yes and no. The responsibility doesn’t solely land at the feet of a 20-year-old rookie winger, but while Podkolzin’s board play and defensive intelligence is impressive, his quickness in open ice to adapt to changes in the flow of play and close gaps is still more than a step behind. Cycles just continued, and continued, and continued with him on the ice, but when there were turnovers, Podkolzin created his share through smart positioning and awareness of passing lanes and quick, no-nonsense passing decisions to quickly generate defensive exits.

Sam

Podkolzin’s ability to make quick, impactful reads in the defensive zone was always a bit questionable, but it’s just like Will said above - Vasili looks good when he makes the right read and is involved in the process of controlling a defensive zone exit. As I mentioned in the Raymond report, the NHL is extremely difficult to adjust to, and it’s unfair of us to overly criticize Podkolzin’s ability to keep up and track play when it moves at this speed. His never-ending work ethic combined with the fact that he can be a legitimate defensive contributor indicates that Podkolzin’s two way play has a lot of room to grow as he becomes more and more accustomed to NHL play. Although we’re not entirely sure he will live up to what Canucks fans have been hoping for (he’s been advertised as a star contributor for the Canucks going forward) it’s hard to say Podkolzin won’t be a useful role player as he gains more NHL experience. His potential two-way play, transitional upside, his forechecking abilities, booming shot and close quarters skill begin to paint the picture of a player who could do very well in an offence focused on establishing a heavy forecheck and creating scoring chances off the rush.

Coach Greg’s Take:

“At this point in his career, he is a player who may turn into a Brendan Gallagher type that plays a simple yet effective game, but he needs to continue to build his skills and reads to play and process the game at the NHL level.”

Will

The big question moving forward is how Podkolzin can improve as he gets more experienced in the NHL? He’s got the confidence and strength defensively to manage NHL pressure well, and he at least has the capability of getting pucks past goaltenders with a quality release, one touch passing, off-puck offense, and a track record of driving pucks deep into the offensive zone to attempt passes directly through the most dangerous spaces on the ice. Where Podkolzin may still be behind is generating speed at NHL pace and maintaining control of pucks in offensive rush scenarios consistently, especially with these potential speed increases. Podkolzin gets closed out with the puck too quickly, and often lacks the evasive skill necessary to find space and utilize it for himself. A few pass receptions led to turnovers as Podkolzin had trouble corralling pucks, often resulting in play ending right back in Vancouver’s end. Vancouver spent many minutes of Podkolzin’s ice time hemmed in their own zone, and while I’ll forgive a winger in these situations from time to time, his lack of quickness gave far too much time to opposing puck carriers to manage the space around him and maintain possession.

The puzzle is put together in some areas, but there’s work to be done in order for Podkolzin to reach his potential. I’ve never felt that Podkolzin was a top offensive NHL player, but I have always felt that Podkolzin can be a dependable 200-foot influence that can chip in offensively, and that he is a player who could earn a letter on their jersey with his relentless energy and strong sense for puck support and defensive interceptions. As of right now, he has the tools and tendencies so many young players lack with regards to work rate, body positioning, and raw strength and there’s a solid floor of talent to build on with Podkolzin. My read on him has not particularly changed since 2019, but my read on him has always been hopefully positive. He’s an admirable player with room to grow, and I hope to see him rewarded for the hard work and maturity he displays on the ice at such a young age.