Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, the focus will be on the upcoming playoffs. Here are some players to target for playoff pools and it should go without saying that the focus will be on less obvious players because you don’t need me to tell you that Nathan MacKinnon or Cale Makar would be a good pick.
#1 It is quite common for NHL players to score at a lower rate in the playoffs, and it is only natural – they are only playing against the top half of the league in the postseason. Florida’s Sam Bennett, however, is built differently. Since 2019-2020, Bennett has scored 220 points (107 G, 113 A) in 379 regular-season games, which is a rate of .581 points per game. In the playoffs, since 2019-2020, Bennett has 45 points (19 G, 26 A) in 64 games, a rate of .703 points per game. He rose to the occasion during the 4 Nations Face-Off and it’s reached the point where it is fair to expect Bennett to elevate his game when the games matter more.
#2 The Tampa Bay Lightning acquired Yanni Gourde from the Seattle Kraken at the trade deadline, bringing the feisty forward back to Tampa Bay, where he won two Stanley Cups with the Lightning. In his past three playoff appearances, Gourde has produced 34 points (17 G, 17 A) in 62 games. Even more importantly, he has been moved to left wing on Tampa Bay’s top line, skating alongside Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov and he finished the regular season with six points (1 G, 5 A) in the last eight games.
#3 It is not like Adrian Kempe is an unknown offensive quantity, having scored 139 goals across the past four seasons, but the Los Angeles Kings have routinely been bounced from the playoffs in the first round by the Edmonton Oilers and that is despite Kempe putting up 19 points (11 G, 8 A) in 18 games over his last three playoff seasons. Skating on the Kings’ top line with Anze Kopitar and Andrei Kuzmenko, Kempe is likely to offer good value in this postseason, especially if this is the year that the Kings find a way to get past the Oilers.
#4 Carolina Hurricanes right winger Seth Jarvis has recorded back-to-back seasons with 67 points, including more than 30 goals in both seasons. He has also been a consistently productive player in the postseason, producing 27 points (13 G, 14 A) in 40 playoff games. He also had a strong finish to this regular season, putting up 21 points (9 G, 12 A) and 62 shots on goal in his last 18 games.
#5 Second year Toronto Maple Leafs left winger Matthew Knies is in a prime spot to generate offense, skating on the top line with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, and he finished the regular season with a flourish, tallying 13 points (4 G, 9 A) with 30 shots on goal in his last 12 games. At 6-foot-3, 227 pounds, Knies has the size to handle the more physical play which tends to show up in the playoffs and with an elite setup man like Marner and a finisher like Matthews, there are plenty of points to be found while skating on their wing.
#6 The Montreal Canadiens are naturally underdogs in their first round series against the top-seeded Washington Capitals, but in deep playoff pools, sometimes the play is to take a top player for a lower-seeded team. Consider Habs captain Nick Suzuki, who had 15 points (8 G, 7 A) with 22 shots on goal in his last 10 games, on his way to a career-high 89 points (30 G, 59 A) this season. In deeper pools, there comes a time where fantasy managers need to decide whether to take the sixth-best forward on the favored team or the best forward on an underdog and if the pool is relatively large, hitting on the right underdogs can have a huge effect.
#7 Vegas Golden Knights left winger Ivan Barbashev has been a reliable offensive performer since arriving in Vegas, producing 112 points (48 G, 64 A) in 175 games for the Golden Knights, but he was also an integral part of their Stanley Cup winning team in 2023, contributing 18 points (7 G, 11 A) in 23 games. Barbashev plays a hard game, with plenty of hitting, and is not shy about getting to the front of the net, so he is a quality support scoring option for Vegas.
#8 With the Winnipeg Jets dealing with injuries on the wing, including to Nikolaj Ehlers and Gabe Vilardi, opportunity has knocked loudly for Alex Iafallo, who has often been an over-qualified fourth liner this season. In his last 10 games of the regular season, Iafallo contributed seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 22 shots on goal, while playing frequently with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor on the Jets’ top line.
#9 Drafted 12th overall in last summer’s draft by the Minnesota Wild, defenseman Zeev Buium returned to the University of Denver for his sophomore season and accrued 48 points (13 G, 35 A) in 41 games. He is an intriguing deep league sleeper for playoff pools, as the skilled blueliner appears to be on his way to not only playing for the Wild in the playoffs but potentially quarterbacking the team’s top power play unit. Minnesota has an uphill fight, taking on Vegas in the first round, but the Wild were a much stronger team with Kirill Kaprizov in the lineup this season and Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek both returned from injuries late in the season. If that improves the Wild’s chances of pulling off an upset, it also improves the chances of Buium having a productive postseason.
#10 Since St. Louis Blues left winger Dylan Holloway remains week-to-week with a lower-body injury, it has been important for the Blues to fill his spot in the lineup. While it was likely going to happen anyway, the Blues inked 2022 first-round pick Jimmy Snuggerud, who had 51 points (24 G, 27 A) in 40 games during his junior season at the University of Minnesota. Since joining the Blues, Snuggerud has chipped in four points (1 G, 3 A) with 10 shots on goal in seven games. He finished the regular season on a line with Brayden Schenn and Jordan Kyrou, a quality spot for him to keep contributing offensively.
#11 Los Angeles Kings centre Quinton Byfield had some ups and downs during the season, but he really seemed to find his footing later in the season. In his last 32 games, Byfield had 31 points (12 G, 19 A) with 64 shots on goal. His most common linemate this season has been Kevin Fiala and they have been a dominant duo during five-on-five play, controlling 63.1 percent of shot attempts and 61.0 percent of expected goals.
#12 Ottawa Senators winger David Perron has endured a difficult regular season, managing just 16 points (7 G, 9 A) in 43 games, and he is 36 so maybe age is just catching up to him, but don’t ignore his playoff track record. In his past four playoff appearances, Perron has played a total of 62 games, recording 47 points (21 G, 26 A). He is past his peak years, obviously, but scored seven goals in a 13-game stretch in March, and plays a physical, agitating style that tends to translate well in the postseason.
#13 Just a couple of seasons ago, in 2022-2023, Cam Fowler recorded a career-high 48 points (10 G, 38 A) in 82 games for the Anaheim Ducks, the team that he had spent his entire career with until earlier this season when he was traded to the St. Louis Blues. Since joining the Blues, Fowler has produced 36 points (9 G, 27 A) in just 51 games. Eight of those 36 points were on the power play, so there might be even more upside there, as Fowler is now on St. Louis’ first power play unit and if the Blues are going to upset the Jets in the first round, they will likely need Fowler to continue at this level.
#14 Tampa Bay Lightning centre Anthony Cirelli set career highs with 27 goals and 59 points this season and he is in a good spot for that production to continue, as Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel are his wingers at even strength. Cirelli also has had playoff success. In his past four playoff appearances, Cirelli scored 28 points (11 G, 17 A) in 57 games. He is likely to play plenty in a matchup role, because of his defensive acumen, but Cirelli can deliver offensively, too.
#15 The 2024-2025 season has been thoroughly unimpressive for Maple Leafs winger Max Domi, who finished with 33 points (8 G, 25 A) in 74 games, his lowest single-season point total aside from the COVID-shortened 2020-2021 season. Nevertheless, Domi has been productive in the postseason, accumulating 23 points (7 G, 16 A) in 40 games across his past three playoff appearances, all with different teams (Carolina, Dallas, and Toronto). He is skating on Toronto’s second line, with John Tavares and William Nylander, so there should be scoring opportunities for Domi in this year’s playoffs, too.
#16 Carolina Hurricanes winger Taylor Hall has bounced around a lot and battled injuries in recent seasons and was mostly overlooked when the Hurricanes acquired him at the same time that they traded for Mikko Rantanen earlier in the season. However, once the Hurricanes traded Rantanen to Dallas, more responsibility was waiting for Hall, and he has responded favorably. In 18 games since the trade deadline, Hall contributed 15 points (8 G, 7 A) with 38 shots on goal. Hall also has 29 points (14 G, 15 A) in 39 career playoff games, so he has tended to show up in the postseason, even if it ends up being in small samples.
#17 At 35-years-old, Dallas Stars captain Jamie Benn fills more of a supporting role on the team. He finished with 49 points (16 G, 33 A) in 80 games, the third time in his career that he played more than 70 games and finished with fewer than 50 points. Benn finished the regular season with no goals and nine assists in his last 17 games. It can’t be ignored, though, that Benn has been a beast in the playoffs. He has reached double-digit point totals in five separate playoff runs and in the past two seasons, he has put up 26 points (7 G, 19 A) in 36 playoff games. He finished the regular season on a line with Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen, which should give Benn quality chances to contribute offensively, though a late-season injury to Jason Robertson could cause the Stars to shuffle those lines.
#18 The Montreal Canadiens plugged winger Ivan Demidov into their lineup for the last two regular season games and Demidov responded with a goal and an assist in his first period of NHL action. Two games is obviously a super small sample size, but Demidov’s five-on-five shot rate (11.62 per 60 minutes) and point rate (5.81 per 60) were better than any other Habs skaters in those two games. His individual expected goals rate (1.29 per 60) ranked second behind Alex Newhook (1.85 ixG/60). Demidov is playing on a line with Newhook and Patrik Laine, while also getting second-unit power play time and if the Habs are going to pull off an upset against Washington, they might just need their precocious rookie to make a difference.
#19 Goaltenders with the best save percentage since the 4 Nations Face-Off (minimum 10 starts): Andrei Vasilevskiy (.927), Darcy Kuemper (.926), Connor Hellebuyck (.924), Scott Wedgewood (.924), Anthony Stolarz (.922), Adin Hill (.920), Sergei Bobrovsky (.914), Sam Montembeault (.912), Filip Gustavsson (.911), and Jordan Binnington (.910). That could be encouraging for any of the teams that employ those netminders, but Vasilevskiy’s Lightning and Kuemper’s Kings could use the lift that comes with strong goaltending.
#20 Goaltenders with the worst save percentage since the 4 Nations Face-Off (minimum 10 starts), among playoff goaltenders: Jacob Markstrom (.869), Pyotr Kochetkov (.879), Logan Thompson (.880), Stuart Skinner (.883), Charlie Lindgren (.887), Frederik Andersen (.890), Calvin Pickard (.899), and Mackenzie Blackwood (.899). Just as the Lightning and Kings could be more hopeful with strong goaltending, the Hurricanes, Capitals, Oilers, and Avalanche might be a bit more wary based on the goaltending they have received late in the regular season.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick